WEBVTT - What Next for Syria? 0:00:01.840 --> 0:00:04.920 Also media. 0:00:05.120 --> 0:00:09.920 Uh, welcome back to it could happen here a podcast 0:00:10.000 --> 0:00:13.680 about the things that are happening all around us, including 0:00:13.920 --> 0:00:16.680 shockingly in the last week something we did not expect 0:00:16.720 --> 0:00:20.360 two weeks ago, the fall of the Assad regime, which 0:00:20.560 --> 0:00:23.200 our official stance as a network is that fuck him. 0:00:23.400 --> 0:00:25.680 This is pretty good, but a lot of people feel differently, 0:00:25.720 --> 0:00:28.040 And to talk with me about that. Another guy who's 0:00:28.080 --> 0:00:32.360 always angry about Syria and also has been to Syria, James, 0:00:32.440 --> 0:00:34.800 And you know, just as a note, I think a 0:00:34.840 --> 0:00:37.159 lot of the people podcasting about this right now are 0:00:37.200 --> 0:00:39.760 talking about a place they've never been, although James and 0:00:39.800 --> 0:00:40.800 I have not been. 0:00:40.920 --> 0:00:42.680 To EdLib, so you know, it's true. 0:00:42.800 --> 0:00:45.479 We're going to be fairly focused on our experiences in 0:00:45.479 --> 0:00:48.800 the Kurdish regions. But at least we're not just bullshitting 0:00:48.840 --> 0:00:51.400 about a place that we've read about on the internet. 0:00:52.280 --> 0:00:55.320 Yeah, claiming deep on the ground understanding of a place 0:00:55.320 --> 0:00:59.160 from ready, yes that is not us. Yeah, we I 0:00:59.280 --> 0:01:01.640 briefly look to regime held Syria. 0:01:01.720 --> 0:01:04.560 Yeah yeah, yeah, over from a commisiala where there is 0:01:05.080 --> 0:01:08.200 kind of the governance capital of Rojava but is also 0:01:08.560 --> 0:01:10.639 a big chunk of it was held by the assad regimes. 0:01:10.640 --> 0:01:12.840 You would just periodically, like see that fucker's face on 0:01:12.880 --> 0:01:14.520 the wall as you were a crossing the street. 0:01:16.440 --> 0:01:20.440 It's a good times. But my fixer would come around 0:01:20.440 --> 0:01:22.760 at noon for whatever reason. When I was in Rajava, 0:01:22.760 --> 0:01:24.560 and like, I hate to sit in the hotel, so 0:01:24.600 --> 0:01:27.200 I'd go out for walks around the market. Yeah, not 0:01:27.280 --> 0:01:29.160 advised by the old safety people. 0:01:29.200 --> 0:01:31.640 But no, one of the sketchiest cities I've been in 0:01:32.760 --> 0:01:35.919 because of the presence of regime troops. Yes, yes, everything 0:01:35.920 --> 0:01:38.039 else was lovely. Yeah, people are lovely. 0:01:38.120 --> 0:01:38.320 Yeah. 0:01:38.360 --> 0:01:40.640 I'd be walking down the street and like I'd be 0:01:40.680 --> 0:01:42.680 looking around, see has anything interesting to go and see? 0:01:42.720 --> 0:01:45.440 And then you can literally take one wrong turn down 0:01:45.480 --> 0:01:48.200 the street and walk into to regime Syria, as you 0:01:48.280 --> 0:01:50.960 covered in in the Women's War. Like I was walking 0:01:51.000 --> 0:01:52.600 down one street and this man walked up to me 0:01:52.640 --> 0:01:55.160 and m curtis, she's not very good. Tried to say hello, 0:01:55.320 --> 0:01:57.360 told in my name and stuff, and then he starts 0:01:57.360 --> 0:01:59.800 getting more agitated, and he just starts repeating at higher 0:01:59.800 --> 0:02:04.200 and hier volume, a sad bad man. Yeah, stay away, bro, 0:02:04.360 --> 0:02:07.640 stay away. He's like, you're going to fucking die to 0:02:07.680 --> 0:02:08.680 be a fucking of all. 0:02:10.360 --> 0:02:12.360 Yeah, girl expars to that guy. 0:02:12.680 --> 0:02:14.400 Yeah, Bashi Barshi. 0:02:14.560 --> 0:02:16.680 Yeah it is. It was a very straight situation. 0:02:16.800 --> 0:02:19.800 It is no longer a straight situation because in the 0:02:19.880 --> 0:02:23.560 last week the A side regime has crumbled. Statues of 0:02:23.639 --> 0:02:25.519 him have been torn down all over the country, which 0:02:25.560 --> 0:02:27.680 we love to see. It's another of us dancers other 0:02:27.760 --> 0:02:29.079 network is fuck a statue? 0:02:29.240 --> 0:02:30.960 Yes, yeah, fuck most statues. 0:02:31.440 --> 0:02:33.640 Most statues are probably some cool one does the lady 0:02:33.720 --> 0:02:35.960 hitting the Nazi with a handbag in Sweden? That's a 0:02:35.960 --> 0:02:40.959 good statue. But yeah, most statues, most statues of dudes 0:02:40.960 --> 0:02:42.320 in suits. Don't love them. 0:02:42.600 --> 0:02:44.480 No, very few dudes in suits. I want to see 0:02:44.480 --> 0:02:45.240 a statue of. 0:02:45.800 --> 0:02:47.359 Yeah, I can't think of any right now. 0:02:47.440 --> 0:02:48.720 Yeah, it's not coming to me. 0:02:49.240 --> 0:02:50.320 Yeah, I'm sure it will. 0:02:50.800 --> 0:02:53.399 So these statues have been torn down because your said 0:02:53.440 --> 0:02:57.400 regime has basically crumbled. It failed to really put up 0:02:57.480 --> 0:03:02.280 any meaningful resistance to disadvance by different rebel groups, right 0:03:02.320 --> 0:03:05.200 by HTS, by SNA, by the Southern Front as well. 0:03:06.240 --> 0:03:09.600 And despite I guess even what I would have said 0:03:09.600 --> 0:03:12.280 two weeks ago, right even after they lost Aleppo, I 0:03:12.320 --> 0:03:15.840 assumed that they would regroup in Hama or Homs and 0:03:15.919 --> 0:03:16.360 they did not. 0:03:16.720 --> 0:03:18.160 They completely failed to do so. 0:03:18.280 --> 0:03:21.920 Their Russian backers more or less abandoned them, focused on 0:03:22.000 --> 0:03:25.680 getting their stuff and their people. Those who survived out 0:03:25.680 --> 0:03:29.040 of the country, and as a result, there is no 0:03:29.120 --> 0:03:31.240 more a SAD regime, right A SAD fled the country 0:03:31.280 --> 0:03:33.639 at some point. It was initially speculated that a Sad 0:03:33.680 --> 0:03:36.600 had fled on an aircraft on Saturday night as rebels 0:03:36.600 --> 0:03:41.920 were entering Damascus. That seems to be untrue, or perhaps 0:03:41.960 --> 0:03:44.640 it was true, but the speculation that aircraft had crashed 0:03:44.720 --> 0:03:46.920 or been shut down, certainly it does not seem to 0:03:47.160 --> 0:03:48.600 Sad now seems to be. 0:03:48.920 --> 0:03:49.320 I think. 0:03:49.440 --> 0:03:52.280 Look, I made the call about two days before the 0:03:52.320 --> 0:03:54.120 regime fell that I felt he was out of the country, 0:03:54.160 --> 0:03:56.560 based on some reporting, including reporting from the scene regime, 0:03:56.600 --> 0:03:58.880 that he'd gone to Iran first. I think he left 0:03:58.920 --> 0:04:01.880 days before it fell. I don't think he's He's got 0:04:02.160 --> 0:04:04.680 enough instinct for self preservation that I think he got 0:04:04.680 --> 0:04:05.520 the fuck out of there. 0:04:05.800 --> 0:04:07.280 Yeah, he didn't want to be found in a hole 0:04:07.320 --> 0:04:11.720 in the ground like here, or end up like Canafi. 0:04:11.760 --> 0:04:13.600 I guess, so he left. 0:04:13.760 --> 0:04:15.720 It's quite possible that he was doing a sort of 0:04:15.760 --> 0:04:18.520 final please please help me tour of Russia run, which 0:04:18.560 --> 0:04:21.440 turned turned into his eventual exile. 0:04:21.880 --> 0:04:24.320 In breaking news, Robert, I don't know. 0:04:24.600 --> 0:04:26.400 I don't know if you've seen this telegram post, and 0:04:26.440 --> 0:04:29.280 obviously we can't confirm it because we don't have a 0:04:29.279 --> 0:04:32.599 direct Clansiasad regime, but allegedly he is planning on setting 0:04:32.680 --> 0:04:36.080 up a specialized hospital in the field of ophthalmology in Russia, 0:04:36.120 --> 0:04:37.520 Abkhazia and Dubai. 0:04:37.680 --> 0:04:40.120 Yeah. Great, great place for him to be working. 0:04:40.400 --> 0:04:44.080 Yeah, wonderful, cool stuff. Yeah cool. Yeah, not at the 0:04:44.120 --> 0:04:48.560 Hague where he belongs. And yeah, anyway, he's gone. And 0:04:49.120 --> 0:04:52.840 we have seen in response, like some of the worst 0:04:52.880 --> 0:04:55.040 social media posting that I've seen, And I don't want 0:04:55.080 --> 0:04:57.120 this to be like like Twitter review. I think that 0:04:57.200 --> 0:05:00.440 obviously that's pointless and pure ut but I want to 0:05:00.800 --> 0:05:05.760 address I guess this kind of really disappointing response I've 0:05:05.760 --> 0:05:07.400 seen from a lot of people on the left that 0:05:08.120 --> 0:05:10.680 oh yeah, well, either I mean, you have the like 0:05:10.760 --> 0:05:13.400 the grey zone tendency, right that a sab was great 0:05:13.400 --> 0:05:15.680 actually in the protection of human rights in the region, 0:05:15.760 --> 0:05:18.320 and the like the Syria was socialism in Karna, which 0:05:18.360 --> 0:05:21.280 is obviously nonsense, right, Like, this is a person who 0:05:22.000 --> 0:05:25.320 as we have seen in the last week whose regime 0:05:25.360 --> 0:05:31.560 prisons were holding thousands of people, killed, tens of thousands 0:05:31.600 --> 0:05:35.279 of people, tortured people to death in some cases in 0:05:35.320 --> 0:05:38.320 Sednaia Prison, which is a big prison in Damascus, certainly 0:05:38.360 --> 0:05:39.560 a Damascus, I should. 0:05:39.279 --> 0:05:40.480 Say, it's towards the coast. 0:05:40.760 --> 0:05:43.680 It looks as if there were children in that prison 0:05:43.720 --> 0:05:47.000 who were possibly born in that prison and may have 0:05:47.160 --> 0:05:50.240 never been out of that prison, which is like one 0:05:50.240 --> 0:05:53.320 of the most horrible things I've ever had to think about, 0:05:53.360 --> 0:05:55.240 you know, like like a little child four or five 0:05:55.320 --> 0:05:57.760 years old never having seen the sky. 0:05:58.360 --> 0:06:00.520 It's just it's heartbreaking. 0:06:00.560 --> 0:06:03.400 Like a lot of the things we are going to find, 0:06:03.440 --> 0:06:04.960 the things we're going to hear about in the next 0:06:04.960 --> 0:06:06.200 few weeks are heartbreaking. 0:06:06.440 --> 0:06:08.320 And anybody who's. 0:06:08.080 --> 0:06:10.360 Prepared to apologize for that or prepared to say that 0:06:10.360 --> 0:06:12.960 that was good, I think you really need to question 0:06:13.160 --> 0:06:14.560 if there's someone who's aligned with you. 0:06:14.760 --> 0:06:16.400 But in addition to. 0:06:16.360 --> 0:06:20.799 That tendency, there's one that sort of holds that in Syria, 0:06:21.320 --> 0:06:24.960 like what will come next is worse right, what will 0:06:24.960 --> 0:06:25.479 come next? 0:06:25.680 --> 0:06:26.280 Or we don't know? 0:06:26.680 --> 0:06:28.080 Of course, we don't know what will come next. None 0:06:28.080 --> 0:06:29.599 of us can see the future. But what will come 0:06:29.680 --> 0:06:31.440 next will make a sad look like it was a 0:06:31.440 --> 0:06:33.839 preferable option, and like, I feel that we need to 0:06:33.839 --> 0:06:38.520 address that because I think it's one of the long 0:06:38.760 --> 0:06:44.760 legacies of authoritarian socialists. How do I say this, like 0:06:45.279 --> 0:06:47.680 the authoritarian socialist media project. 0:06:47.400 --> 0:06:51.360 And that kind of colliding with the Iraq War anti 0:06:51.760 --> 0:06:54.400 anti war movement. Yes, you know, yeah, the whole hands 0:06:54.440 --> 0:06:56.680 off Syria thing that groups like the PSL, the Party 0:06:56.680 --> 0:06:58.839 for Socialism and Liberation, we're doing when the rebel started 0:06:58.839 --> 0:07:01.200 this offense of being like we've got to stop you know, 0:07:01.279 --> 0:07:04.680 these US backed rebels from taking uh, you know, Syria 0:07:04.800 --> 0:07:07.800 for the Empires, Like, man, the fuck it. It's not 0:07:07.960 --> 0:07:11.040 the US that was primarily backing the rebels that did 0:07:11.080 --> 0:07:13.760 most of the fighting, Like these guys are Turkish backed, 0:07:14.000 --> 0:07:17.480 you know yeah, yeah, the extent that that even matters, right, 0:07:17.640 --> 0:07:20.840 Like the that like this is not the CIA did 0:07:20.880 --> 0:07:24.320 not orchestrate all of this. The guys the CIA were 0:07:24.360 --> 0:07:27.280 really trying to back in Syria basically all died Like. 0:07:27.800 --> 0:07:28.679 Yeah they've gone. 0:07:29.560 --> 0:07:32.480 Some of the weapons, sure that the US supplied in 0:07:32.840 --> 0:07:35.720 Timber Sycamore are probably stood in the hands of HTS, but. 0:07:35.720 --> 0:07:37.360 Yes, some of them but like, even that's not the 0:07:37.400 --> 0:07:39.800 bulk of the weaponry that those fuckers know using. 0:07:40.080 --> 0:07:42.600 The entire weaponry of the Syrian and arabambi is also 0:07:42.640 --> 0:07:45.320 in the hands of the HDS, which we'll move on 0:07:45.360 --> 0:07:47.760 to actually, because maybe we should address that now before 0:07:47.760 --> 0:07:51.240 we address responses. Actually, yeah, when we talk about international 0:07:51.280 --> 0:07:54.440 involvement in Syria, right, we talk about the United States 0:07:54.840 --> 0:07:57.880 who has supported the SDF, not as a project, and 0:07:57.880 --> 0:08:02.480 this is important. They don't support the Democratic Autonomous Administration 0:08:02.560 --> 0:08:06.280 Northern Assyria as a democratic project. What they support is 0:08:06.320 --> 0:08:09.360 the SDF as a partner force in the fight against ISIS, 0:08:09.560 --> 0:08:11.960 and that's been very clear when they have failed to 0:08:12.000 --> 0:08:17.880 defend the Anes against genocidal violence, ethnic cleansing, and a 0:08:17.960 --> 0:08:22.119 free right what we're seeing again now in the Talifat area. 0:08:22.280 --> 0:08:24.200 I'll use that terminology because if you want to look 0:08:24.200 --> 0:08:27.400 it up on Google Maps, that's easier to find the 0:08:27.480 --> 0:08:30.520 violence that we've seen repeatedly from the Turkish back Syrian 0:08:30.600 --> 0:08:33.840 National Army or Turkish Free Syrian Army as are sometimes called. Right, 0:08:33.880 --> 0:08:37.559 the United States hasn't defended the people of the Ans 0:08:37.559 --> 0:08:40.520 against and it won't because that's not what it's there 0:08:40.559 --> 0:08:43.160 to do. And as much as we would like it too, 0:08:44.000 --> 0:08:46.080 I don't think that as in the nature of the 0:08:46.240 --> 0:08:48.760 US mission in Syria. And I don't think it's in 0:08:48.800 --> 0:08:51.640 the nature of the US as a state to support 0:08:51.760 --> 0:08:54.800 a project which is seeking to build democracy without the state. 0:08:54.880 --> 0:08:56.480 It's not in the nature of the state. 0:08:56.800 --> 0:09:01.280 We stumbled backwards, accidentally into exactly one, supporting the good 0:09:01.360 --> 0:09:05.280 guys in the conflict, you know, specifically in the conflict 0:09:05.280 --> 0:09:08.800 with ISIS. Yeah, like a broken cloak, and we immediately 0:09:08.960 --> 0:09:10.880 ever since we have been trying as hard as we 0:09:10.920 --> 0:09:13.920 can to pull back and you know, betray them, yes 0:09:14.080 --> 0:09:15.319 to their deaths like that. 0:09:15.320 --> 0:09:18.400 That that is the story of US support of Rojava. 0:09:18.679 --> 0:09:21.080 Yeah, it's not. This is not a US proxy state. 0:09:21.200 --> 0:09:22.560 Some people are trying to tell you, this is not 0:09:22.600 --> 0:09:24.840 a CIA revolution of Some people are trying to tell you. 0:09:24.880 --> 0:09:25.200 Indeed. 0:09:25.320 --> 0:09:27.439 Now, part of what gives fuel for that is there 0:09:27.440 --> 0:09:29.640 are a number of photos of like US troops really 0:09:29.760 --> 0:09:33.000 vibing with the WHITEPG and YPJ, and they're vibing with them. 0:09:33.280 --> 0:09:35.400 And you and I could both say this having been 0:09:35.440 --> 0:09:36.160 with those people. 0:09:36.480 --> 0:09:39.680 They're nice. Yeah, they're fun, they're chill folks. 0:09:40.520 --> 0:09:43.040 Yeah, they have good music and they like to done 0:09:43.200 --> 0:09:47.320 generally cool people. Yes, yeah, I enjoy that company. I 0:09:47.360 --> 0:09:49.880 have vibed with the WHITEPT you know, like. 0:09:49.880 --> 0:09:52.280 It's hard not to see a bunch of young women 0:09:52.320 --> 0:09:55.400 who like left isis captivity and immediately said give me 0:09:55.480 --> 0:09:57.080 a gun. I'm going to learn how to use it, 0:09:57.160 --> 0:10:00.000 and be like, yeah, that's pretty cool. Good for you. 0:10:00.320 --> 0:10:02.640 Yeah, it's one of the cooler things that's happened in 0:10:02.640 --> 0:10:06.120 the Middle East in the past century. Like, the United 0:10:06.160 --> 0:10:09.400 States does not have a plan for what has happened 0:10:09.440 --> 0:10:11.520 in the last two weeks, and it appears to be 0:10:11.880 --> 0:10:14.359 trying to think on the hoof right now. Joe Biden's 0:10:14.440 --> 0:10:18.200 foreign policy has been dog shit and it doesn't look 0:10:18.240 --> 0:10:20.360 like he's going to pull a one eighty. Now. We 0:10:20.360 --> 0:10:23.400 should not expect the United States to save for Java. 0:10:23.480 --> 0:10:25.640 We should do everything we can to get the United 0:10:25.640 --> 0:10:28.839 States to continue supporting the people who gave more than 0:10:28.880 --> 0:10:32.120 ten thousand of their children in the battle against ISIS. 0:10:32.559 --> 0:10:34.320 The US didn't want to say ground troops right at 0:10:34.360 --> 0:10:36.720 Bama didn't want to have another ground war. Noithery did Trump, 0:10:37.520 --> 0:10:39.880 and so they got people from the SDF to do 0:10:39.920 --> 0:10:42.040 the dying, and a lot of the killing were they 0:10:42.160 --> 0:10:47.280 maintained an aerial presence, was a light ground footprint. We 0:10:47.280 --> 0:10:50.080 shouldn't expect the US to show up for the people 0:10:50.080 --> 0:10:50.760 who showed. 0:10:50.559 --> 0:10:50.840 Up for it. 0:10:50.880 --> 0:10:51.960 That's not in its nature. 0:10:52.600 --> 0:10:56.040 The only state that had a plan for what happened 0:10:56.040 --> 0:10:58.000 in the last two weeks appears to have been Israel. 0:10:58.320 --> 0:11:03.559 Disappointingly right, Russia and Iran seemed to have largely scrambled 0:11:03.640 --> 0:11:07.080 extracted their state assets. Russia got some of its people out, 0:11:07.120 --> 0:11:11.000 they took some of their aircraft out. Iran Likewise, the 0:11:11.120 --> 0:11:13.840 US seems to be kind of scrambling. I'm sure there 0:11:13.840 --> 0:11:18.200 are still some like Oda's, some special forces guys embedded 0:11:18.200 --> 0:11:21.520 with the SDF. I'm sure that in the areas where 0:11:21.559 --> 0:11:23.559 ISIS has written up, because in some areas where the 0:11:23.600 --> 0:11:26.600 regime has pulled back, there has been an increasing presence 0:11:26.640 --> 0:11:29.560 of ISIS sleeper cells trying to sort of once again 0:11:29.640 --> 0:11:33.360 control territory and attack the SDF in those areas. I'm 0:11:33.360 --> 0:11:36.080 sure that there are US special forces like directing air strikes. 0:11:36.120 --> 0:11:37.800 But I don't think the US is going to come 0:11:37.800 --> 0:11:39.680 and say brijha. But the only country that had a 0:11:39.720 --> 0:11:43.240 plan was Israel, and what Israel's plan was was to 0:11:43.320 --> 0:11:47.559 invade Syria in the Golan Heights, right, to increase their 0:11:47.600 --> 0:11:52.440 area of control, and then to bomb almost all of 0:11:52.559 --> 0:11:56.480 the aircraft. And perhaps I don't know it also includes 0:11:56.520 --> 0:11:59.559 air defense systems. But from what the IDF is saying today, 0:12:00.040 --> 0:12:04.160 they have bombed all of the Syrian air Forces aircraft 0:12:04.160 --> 0:12:07.840 that had fallen into rebel hands. This includes ammunition for 0:12:07.880 --> 0:12:11.280 the aircraft and includes the ammunition dump at Kamishlow Airport. 0:12:11.280 --> 0:12:14.120 About half an hour before Robert and I started recording 0:12:14.120 --> 0:12:16.240 here on Monday, I saw a video from a friend 0:12:16.280 --> 0:12:19.640 in Kamishlow of the ammunition dump at the airport, which 0:12:19.679 --> 0:12:21.840 have previously belonged to the regime now belongs to the 0:12:21.880 --> 0:12:25.440 a and ees exploding after it had been hit by 0:12:25.440 --> 0:12:26.160 an IDFs. 0:12:26.280 --> 0:12:26.400 Right. 0:12:27.120 --> 0:12:29.440 So what they're trying to do, I guess, is deny 0:12:29.679 --> 0:12:33.520 any of those weapons to people who they perceive as 0:12:33.720 --> 0:12:37.200 a threat to their interests. Yep, and like there's been 0:12:37.920 --> 0:12:39.560 I don't know if you're seeing this. Also, Robert by 0:12:39.720 --> 0:12:43.280 a lot of like Israeli accounts being like, oh, we 0:12:43.360 --> 0:12:46.160 stand with the curd Israel and the Kurds are won. 0:12:46.480 --> 0:12:49.720 And first of all, I want to warn you. I 0:12:49.760 --> 0:12:52.199 want to warn you that we have an advertising breakcoming, Robert, 0:12:52.320 --> 0:12:53.439 is what I want to warn you about. 0:12:54.160 --> 0:12:58.720 Oh well, speaking of well, actually not speaking of the IDF, thankfully, 0:12:58.760 --> 0:13:01.480 but speaking about maybe the California State Highway Patrol. 0:13:01.640 --> 0:13:21.200 Here's some ads. 0:13:13.480 --> 0:13:15.080 We're back. Yeah. 0:13:15.120 --> 0:13:17.920 Firstly, I think when you're seeing analysis about Syria, any 0:13:17.960 --> 0:13:21.320 when he talks about things in terms of these monolithic blocks, 0:13:21.559 --> 0:13:25.520 this ISRAELI counts. Often we will support the Curds. I 0:13:25.600 --> 0:13:29.559 would be sometimes I'll maybe use that to refer to 0:13:29.679 --> 0:13:31.199 A and E S or the SDF. But I really 0:13:31.240 --> 0:13:34.640 trend on too because it's it's a multi ethnic project, right, 0:13:34.760 --> 0:13:37.440 Like the areas that we'll talk about in a minute, 0:13:37.440 --> 0:13:41.240 where the SDF is being attacked those areas, the largest 0:13:41.280 --> 0:13:44.040 component is the SDF is is Arab, Yeah, forces right, 0:13:44.120 --> 0:13:46.840 and that that is the case in the SDF as 0:13:46.840 --> 0:13:49.559 a whole. Actually, the majority of the SDF is now Arab. 0:13:49.400 --> 0:13:50.120 Not not Kurdish. 0:13:50.559 --> 0:13:52.320 I would be very skeptic of the expertise of anyone 0:13:52.360 --> 0:13:55.960 who refers to things in these monolithic absolutes, right, the Sunnis, 0:13:56.400 --> 0:13:59.600 the Shias, yeah, the allah Whites, the Kurds. There are 0:13:59.600 --> 0:14:02.160 a lot of different groups in Syria, and those groups 0:14:02.200 --> 0:14:06.280 are comprised of individuals, and those individuals shockingly have different 0:14:06.360 --> 0:14:10.120 and distinct goals and experiences and desires. Like there are 0:14:10.640 --> 0:14:13.360 absolutely Ala whites who will have remained loyal to us, 0:14:13.360 --> 0:14:16.760 sad there are others who demonstrably did not, as we've 0:14:16.800 --> 0:14:20.400 seen in the last week, right. And so I would 0:14:20.400 --> 0:14:23.000 be skeptical of anyone who tries to paint things in 0:14:23.040 --> 0:14:27.240 those terms. And I would be skeptical, to return to 0:14:28.160 --> 0:14:30.400 what we were talking about earlier, Robert, of people who 0:14:30.520 --> 0:14:33.560 tell you that, like we should expect the one I 0:14:33.640 --> 0:14:36.640 see most is Syria to turn into Lebanon, right, And 0:14:36.800 --> 0:14:38.120 like you and I have been talking about this before 0:14:38.120 --> 0:14:42.440 we recorded, but that's not a useful example in my 0:14:42.640 --> 0:14:46.080 mind of what we're likely to see in Syria, right. 0:14:47.280 --> 0:14:50.280 And the reason for that is that like in Lebanon, yes, 0:14:50.400 --> 0:14:52.880 there was there was like a US Air component, as 0:14:52.880 --> 0:14:53.520 there is in Syria. 0:14:53.560 --> 0:14:54.000 That's true. 0:14:54.040 --> 0:14:56.680 But I don't understand why we would look at the 0:14:56.760 --> 0:15:00.600 example of Lebanon, a place thousands of miles away, when 0:15:00.760 --> 0:15:06.320 we have at least two examples of governance in Syria, right, 0:15:06.400 --> 0:15:09.000 people who have been governing, in one case for more 0:15:09.040 --> 0:15:12.120 than a decade, significant parts of Syria, like they have 0:15:13.120 --> 0:15:16.200 a government project. In the case of the ANS, I 0:15:16.240 --> 0:15:18.480 don't think it's fair to call it a state project. 0:15:18.600 --> 0:15:20.040 Like they would tell you that they're trying to build 0:15:20.040 --> 0:15:24.520 democracy without the state, which is something that which might 0:15:24.560 --> 0:15:27.520 not be popular with states evidently, which doesn't let them 0:15:27.520 --> 0:15:30.360 the support of many states, as we've seen. But we 0:15:30.560 --> 0:15:34.200 have and with HDS in July and the Salvation Government. Right, 0:15:34.280 --> 0:15:39.160 we have these two governance projects. They're extremely different, right. 0:15:39.600 --> 0:15:42.960 The Salvation Government under HDS is people have been arrested 0:15:42.960 --> 0:15:47.160 for playing music at their own weddings. It is neither 0:15:47.320 --> 0:15:51.359 democratic nor particularly liberatory. And then we have the ANS, 0:15:51.440 --> 0:15:53.320 which I would argue is the only democracy in the 0:15:53.360 --> 0:15:56.200 Middle least. Yeah, certainly the only democracy where people of 0:15:56.240 --> 0:15:58.640 different ethnicities and genders matter the same amount. 0:15:59.040 --> 0:16:02.160 Yeah, certainly the like multi ethnic democracy. Yes, in the 0:16:02.200 --> 0:16:04.160 Middle East, that's functional. 0:16:04.280 --> 0:16:07.080 Yeah, you know, you're just straining the definition of democracy 0:16:07.120 --> 0:16:10.160 if you're constraining it by ethnicity, right, Right, So I 0:16:10.200 --> 0:16:11.600 think you can make a good case for it being 0:16:11.600 --> 0:16:14.920 the only democracy in the Middle East. I saw this 0:16:15.160 --> 0:16:18.160 really atrocious BBC interview this morning. Right, I'm trying to 0:16:18.560 --> 0:16:21.720 network some networks now have reporters on the ground in Damascus, 0:16:22.000 --> 0:16:23.920 and I've been trying to watch those to sort of 0:16:24.280 --> 0:16:26.320 see sort of what's going on. It can be very 0:16:26.360 --> 0:16:29.040 hard to just get your news from telegram like. I 0:16:29.080 --> 0:16:31.160 would also caution people who are perhaps new to this, 0:16:31.360 --> 0:16:33.680 who are finding these telegram channels to take everything you 0:16:33.760 --> 0:16:34.840 read on there with the pinch of salt. 0:16:34.840 --> 0:16:36.640 You'll see a lot of disinformation there. 0:16:37.600 --> 0:16:39.400 One of the BBC had an expert on and he 0:16:39.520 --> 0:16:41.360 was like, Oh, every time we see people pulling down 0:16:41.400 --> 0:16:45.720 statues of dictators, I'm a bit concerned, and like, I 0:16:45.840 --> 0:16:48.840 have to think about how to express this. It seems 0:16:48.880 --> 0:16:52.560 to me deeply as lamophobic or bigoted or racist. I 0:16:52.600 --> 0:16:55.280 don't quite know the white term to say, Oh, the 0:16:55.400 --> 0:16:57.720 people of this country and the place is in the 0:16:57.840 --> 0:17:00.640 last ten twenty years where we've seen people pulling statutes 0:17:00.640 --> 0:17:03.080 of dictators have largely been in the Middle East. Right 0:17:04.320 --> 0:17:07.560 to say that, oh, these people are incapable of self governance, 0:17:07.640 --> 0:17:10.119 these people are incapable of living in peace with one another, 0:17:10.440 --> 0:17:11.080 but like they're not. 0:17:11.320 --> 0:17:15.480 We've seen that in Java, and I don't think. 0:17:15.800 --> 0:17:19.160 That the right response now is to respond with skepticism, 0:17:19.359 --> 0:17:22.920 to like the Syrian people's ability to live in peace. 0:17:22.920 --> 0:17:26.399 They've been at war for fifteen years, fourteen years, thirteen 0:17:26.560 --> 0:17:29.560 thirteen years, thirteen and a half years. But I think 0:17:29.720 --> 0:17:33.280 that there is not an appetite for more killing, more dying, 0:17:33.640 --> 0:17:35.600 certainly from what I've seen and what I've heard. 0:17:36.080 --> 0:17:38.199 No exhaustion is a factor here. 0:17:38.400 --> 0:17:42.439 Like you really cannot emphasize enough how long I mean, 0:17:42.680 --> 0:17:46.280 HTS and the SNA have been at this and how 0:17:46.359 --> 0:17:51.760 fucking tired, particularly like HTS has to be, Like this 0:17:51.880 --> 0:17:57.120 has been more than a decade of constant terror and violence. 0:17:57.359 --> 0:17:59.240 So I do think that that's going to be a factor, 0:17:59.280 --> 0:18:02.560 and like what happened next, I should hope it will be. Yeah, 0:18:02.840 --> 0:18:06.159 I mean some things I don't know how to interpret. Right, 0:18:06.320 --> 0:18:10.240 HTS has asked the regime, police and authorities in cities 0:18:10.320 --> 0:18:14.199 to stay on. Some of that is probably good, right, 0:18:14.240 --> 0:18:16.280 Like the people who ensure that the water gets pumped, 0:18:16.480 --> 0:18:19.080 I hope that they stay pumping the water. The people 0:18:19.200 --> 0:18:22.560 who were the police side regime, it's here an Arab republic. 0:18:23.520 --> 0:18:25.600 I don't want those people to stay on. I want 0:18:25.680 --> 0:18:28.480 those people to fuck off, and I want those people 0:18:28.560 --> 0:18:31.000 to be held accountable for the crimes it committed. But 0:18:31.800 --> 0:18:35.560 it doesn't point to sort of wild sectarian violence. We 0:18:35.720 --> 0:18:38.199 don't have the situation we had in Iraq, right, Right, 0:18:38.320 --> 0:18:41.560 we have a US occupation which sits inside its base 0:18:41.640 --> 0:18:44.200 is and it only leaves ce big lead to kill people. 0:18:44.440 --> 0:18:46.600 Right from the perspective of the people living in a rack. 0:18:46.680 --> 0:18:48.639 That that's what the US occupation look like for the 0:18:48.720 --> 0:18:52.439 most part. Right, it's guys in big military vehicles who 0:18:52.520 --> 0:18:54.040 kill civilians by mistake. 0:18:54.960 --> 0:18:55.960 We don't have that here. 0:18:56.040 --> 0:19:00.080 There's not that resentment, generational resentment that they're allowed the 0:19:00.160 --> 0:19:02.479 Islamic state to grow there. Now, the Islamic State did 0:19:02.520 --> 0:19:05.240 grow through capturing a lot of state institutions, which which 0:19:05.320 --> 0:19:07.960 is why Yes has done But I don't see that 0:19:08.040 --> 0:19:10.720 same resentment, and they don't see that same desire for 0:19:10.840 --> 0:19:14.040 sort of redemptive violence that we saw. That I might 0:19:14.080 --> 0:19:17.359 be wrong, right, that there might be more into communal violence. 0:19:17.400 --> 0:19:20.320 I have seen some videos of what looked like summary 0:19:20.400 --> 0:19:22.080 executions in Damascus today. 0:19:22.440 --> 0:19:23.440 That's very concerning. 0:19:23.800 --> 0:19:27.080 Yeah, but also I mean, look, there's some people who 0:19:27.119 --> 0:19:29.080