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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast, the number one show

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Speaker 1: for the invested sportsman. All right, here we go.

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Speaker 2: Throwing.

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Speaker 1: We're sitting up to cats.

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Speaker 3: We'll see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 3: go to wind.

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Speaker 1: That's incredible. Big bank, small bank.

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Speaker 3: I like to make money. All right, this is the

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Speaker 3: ultimate kabay want to pull.

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Speaker 1: And we are underway.

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Speaker 3: Welcome to another edition of the Action Network Podcast. I

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Speaker 3: am your host, Chris Raybond, and the NFL Playoffs continue on.

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Speaker 3: We'll break down the divisional round from a betting angle. Here,

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Speaker 3: all of our top spread bets over under bets. We'll

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Speaker 3: give you a teaser money line parlay, and we're gonna

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Speaker 3: jump right into the Sunday six pack. But before we do,

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Speaker 3: just want to remind you guys to download the free

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Speaker 3: Action Network app for real time odds, box scores, and

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Speaker 3: the capability to track every bet that you make. Without

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Speaker 3: further ado, Let's get into the Sunday six.

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Speaker 1: Pack Thursday for Action. Let's crack open the Sunday six pack.

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Speaker 3: First time listeners welcome, what up? Longtime listeners? Thank you

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Speaker 3: for continuing to tune in the six pack. Our top

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Speaker 3: three bets we draft them so we can't choose the

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Speaker 3: same side. We could choose the same game. We've opened

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Speaker 3: it up a little for the playoffs. First half lines

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Speaker 3: things like that are all in play. Stuck, welcome. How's

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Speaker 3: it feel to be a married man for a week and.

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Speaker 1: What's going on?

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Speaker 2: Nothing feels just the same, to be honest, But uh,

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Speaker 2: it's like turning a new year with your age and birthday.

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Speaker 1: I don't really feel any different.

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Speaker 2: But it's a new decade. I'm trying to get out

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Speaker 2: of like a three week slumps. This is a slumpbuster

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Speaker 2: for me. Last week was just I mean, for this podcast,

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Speaker 2: I was all in with the Eagles game, and of

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Speaker 2: course WENTZ, which was basically the entire Eagles offense goes

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Speaker 2: down and there goes any shot of the Eagles. But

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Speaker 2: I mean the Seahawks, luck, I mean, it's almost inevitable

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Speaker 2: that the Seahawks are going to Rogers are gonna get

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Speaker 2: hurt in the first drive, and the Seahawks of all teams,

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Speaker 2: are going to end my Packers' future.

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Speaker 3: Hey man, it's inevitable that I was going to take

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Speaker 3: a commanding lead. That's what was inevitable.

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Speaker 2: Well, you're only up fifty two fifty luckily over the Saints.

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Speaker 1: Skin. Yeah, I mean the two.

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Speaker 2: My two biggest takeaways the NFL just a joke with

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Speaker 2: all the rules again. I mean, look, you try and

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Speaker 2: put all these rules in with the quarterbacks. Quarterbacks still

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Speaker 2: get hurt and I don't even necessarily think it was

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Speaker 2: a dirty hit. But then you're also calling like personal

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Speaker 2: fouls when you just shove a quarterback like they shove Wilson.

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Speaker 1: You try to come on and then they try to

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Speaker 1: get PI right.

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Speaker 2: This is the time to go to review, even if

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Speaker 2: you don't think it should have been PI.

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Speaker 1: Appease the Saints fans.

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Speaker 2: This is the exact situation that you put the rule

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Speaker 2: in for that You tortured us by going to reviews

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Speaker 2: all year and just saying it's stands.

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Speaker 1: So do it again.

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Speaker 2: Go to the review and then just say not enough,

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Speaker 2: it stands. Play call like come on a one second

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Speaker 2: review for the season to determine who goes on. It

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Speaker 2: was just like one second they radio down. It was like, nah,

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Speaker 2: it's good peace. I thought I was a Saints fan,

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Speaker 2: I'd be livid. My other rant is all right, let

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Speaker 2: it out, this is your rant of the week. If

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Speaker 2: I was a Saints that I also be pissed about

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Speaker 2: my head coach, who was apparently drunk. I mean, that's

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Speaker 2: some of the worst clock management I've seen in my

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Speaker 2: entire life. The end of both halves cost his team

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Speaker 2: about forty to fifty seconds. I felt like a broken record.

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Speaker 2: I tweeted, you could have used those forty seconds hash

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Speaker 2: on at the end of the first half and at

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Speaker 2: the end of the second half, you know, cost his

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Speaker 2: team maybe two touchdowns. They missed a long field goal

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Speaker 2: in the first half. Go to overtime, then you lose

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Speaker 2: a coin toss. Coin toss is so dumb in NFL overtime.

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Speaker 2: But credit the Cousins for going down and hitting that

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Speaker 2: past the feel and here we are.

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Speaker 3: So I just did a piece on my quarterback confidence

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Speaker 3: ratings for the division rounds up an Action network right now,

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Speaker 3: Action network dot com, and I might do one for

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Speaker 3: for the coaches, maybe next round, maybe even this one.

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Speaker 3: I mean, like if I'd done one for the Wildcar round,

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Speaker 3: is there any doubt that Sean Payton like against the Vikings,

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Speaker 3: especially like he would have been near the bottom of

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Speaker 3: that with if not the bottom. I mean, this is

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Speaker 3: the Vikings duty in the postseason is to come in

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Speaker 3: here and knock off the Saints and like open up

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Speaker 3: the NFC to either like a hope of like one

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Speaker 3: of these legacy guys like Wilson or Rodgers or the

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Speaker 3: new blood kind of getting in there. Like that is

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Speaker 3: the Vikings duty. When they get to.

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Speaker 2: The postseason, they were completely the Saints are completely unprepared,

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Speaker 2: not only for clock management, but just the one thing

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Speaker 2: I liked about Peyton is he's aggressive, right, so fake punt? Well, no,

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Speaker 2: there was a penalty. They didn't look prepared at all.

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Speaker 2: So credits to the Vikings who One of the reasons

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Speaker 2: I liked the over one of the reasons that I

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Speaker 2: thought the Saints would win was that the Vikings can't

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Speaker 2: really get pressure up the middle, and that's how.

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Speaker 1: It's the only way you can really throw Greese office game.

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Speaker 2: What did Zimmer do? He put Hunter and Griffin up

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Speaker 2: the middle. He blew up the weak area of that

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Speaker 2: Saints offensive line and they just caused havoc in the backfield.

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Speaker 1: Look lost. Taysom Hill was the best quarterback that day.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I said, that's like like Kirk Cousins out dude

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Speaker 3: Taysom Hill. Last week. It was great, great game by

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Speaker 3: Cousins tough to out do Taysom. But let's get into

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Speaker 3: our picks. I mean, if you're okay, but I think

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Speaker 3: we should just do each pick. We could do two points,

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Speaker 3: but I like this three two one. Man like, I

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Speaker 3: don't know which pick I feel the best about one,

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Speaker 3: So one of the least confident one is the last one.

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Speaker 3: Let's do it. It starts up.

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Speaker 2: And by the way, let me just cross off weather

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Speaker 2: real quick, because people are gonna be what's January Ravens, Titans,

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Speaker 2: look out for rain and win forty nine Ers game,

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Speaker 2: Maybe a little rain and win. Chiefs know whether to

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Speaker 2: worry about Packers, Seahawks, No, whether to worry about it

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Speaker 2: just could be.

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Speaker 3: You don't even have to mention the weather in wind

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Speaker 3: and rain and Titans Ravens because there's gonna be approximately

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Speaker 3: zero dropbacks combined by both teams in that game.

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Speaker 1: Well, there'll be.

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Speaker 2: There'll be some dropbacks from PLACSA, but that's about it,

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Speaker 2: which will get too late. All right, I'm gonna start

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Speaker 2: off with the aforementioned vikings and go with the vikings.

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Speaker 2: San Francisco forty nine is under forty five to forty four,

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Speaker 2: as my forty.

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Speaker 3: Four in a half forty four point five for you

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Speaker 3: haters out there.

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Speaker 2: Forty five, forty four and a half, same thing for

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Speaker 2: because pushes don't mean anything.

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Speaker 1: You know, there's a couple of reasons why I like this.

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Speaker 1: And let me first say this.

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Speaker 2: The bye week, Historically you would think, oh, look the bye,

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Speaker 2: it's it's really meaningful to these teams. They have extra

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Speaker 2: prep and even this week the Vikings played on a Sunday,

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Speaker 2: short week, now playing on a Saturday. Five back to Minnesota,

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Speaker 2: go to San fran But historically, you know, teams off

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Speaker 2: of a bye playing a team with only six days rest,

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Speaker 2: they're only four and five against the spread.

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Speaker 1: But that's meaning of sample size.

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Speaker 2: In the regular season, teams off of a bye fifty

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Speaker 2: two point six percent against the spread, covering by about

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Speaker 2: a half a point. Divisional round off of a bye

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Speaker 2: twenty seven thirty six and one only forty two percent

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Speaker 2: forty two point nine percent of the time, not covering

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Speaker 2: by over a point a game divisional round is a

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Speaker 2: favorite twenty four thirty six and one forty percent touchdown

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Speaker 2: or more favor in the divisional round off of by

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Speaker 2: twelve twenty and one, not covering by an average margin

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Speaker 2: of about four points per game. So I'm just going

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Speaker 2: to get the your trend people out of the way,

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Speaker 2: because some of these trends are bored, I think coming

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Speaker 2: out about meaningful trends, which I think they could mean

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Speaker 2: something like quarterbacks, some coaching trends, coaching coaches off a bye.

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Speaker 2: I'll get to that later, and then this bye. I

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Speaker 2: think the buye is just generally overvalued. And look, I

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Speaker 2: know that the Vikings had a short rest, but they

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Speaker 2: also took off week seventeen, which I think really helps here.

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Speaker 2: You know, they rested all of their starters. But we

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Speaker 2: got to go back to what we said last week

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Speaker 2: at first time quarterbacks in the NFL Playoffs in their

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Speaker 2: first start have been absolutely horrifying against the spread except

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Speaker 2: Brian tanneher, yes, except Bryan Tanne By the way, the

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Speaker 2: Patriots not even.

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Speaker 1: Worth talking about there.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it's not, it's not.

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Speaker 1: Yeah.

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Speaker 2: So first time quarterbacks through one and two weekend there

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Speaker 2: are fifteen and thirty two straight up thirty team thirty

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Speaker 2: three and one against the spread since two thousand and two,

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Speaker 2: so they have not farewell. And also if you look

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Speaker 2: at those games, unders have been a cash count. Guess

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Speaker 2: what happened last weekend. Unders went three to zero in

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Speaker 2: those games. They unders have hit about sixty two percent

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Speaker 2: in those games. So all the pressures on Jimmy g here,

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Speaker 2: Kirk Cousin's going in there with free money. Now, you know,

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Speaker 2: he's look, he won his so called big game. He's

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Speaker 2: not expected to win this game, not expected to win.

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Speaker 2: Let all the pressures on san fran here. But let's

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Speaker 2: get to the under And those are some of the

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Speaker 2: reasons why teaser alert.

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Speaker 3: Are you taking? Are you taking the Vikings as well

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Speaker 3: as your second most confident because you can just go

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Speaker 3: ahead and talk about both of them.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm gonna do Vikings is my third, so I'll

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Speaker 2: cover them both off Yeah as well. The one concerning

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Speaker 2: thing is that they're you know, today popped up on

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Speaker 2: the injury report Adam Fielding with an ankle injury limited

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Speaker 2: in practice.

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Speaker 1: How series is that, I don't know.

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Speaker 2: So obviously, if thelon is out, it does limit their

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Speaker 2: offense a little bit.

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Speaker 1: But let's get to the defenses here.

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Speaker 2: You know, if you look at both defenses, they're excellent

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Speaker 2: and they don't give up any explosive plays either defense.

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Speaker 2: Both defenses excel keeping everything in front of them. The

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Speaker 2: forty nine ers might be able to run the ball

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Speaker 2: a little bit. But the Vikings, you know what they

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Speaker 2: do really well. They defend the run and they cover

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Speaker 2: tight ends number one in the NFL covering tight ends

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Speaker 2: because they have the best group of safety and linebackers

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Speaker 2: in coverage in the NFL. Why is that so big

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Speaker 2: air well against George Kittle, that's massive, So they cover

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Speaker 2: the run really well. Look, they didn't have a ton

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Speaker 2: of time to game plan. Lynnville Joseph should be back

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Speaker 2: also for the Vikings, which will help in the middle

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Speaker 2: because the four niners are really healthy across the board.

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Speaker 2: Accept that center where rich Berg is out and guard.

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Speaker 2: So you might see Hunter and Griffin come in the

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Speaker 2: interior again and it's not going to be a surprise,

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Speaker 2: but if they can blow up the pocket. Because if

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Speaker 2: you look at Jimmy G's numbers and Drew Brees's numbers,

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Speaker 2: they're eerily similar as far as how you know, their

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Speaker 2: offensers are kind of similar to how they throw the ball.

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Speaker 2: Jimmy G only attempted a deep pass on about six

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Speaker 2: percent of his passes in the air.

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Speaker 1: That's so low.

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Speaker 2: I mean Russell Wilson and Rodgers are at like sixteen percent,

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Speaker 2: Staffords at like eighteen percent. So this isn't an offense

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Speaker 2: where they're going to chuck it down the field. He's

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Speaker 2: getting the ball out quick, so Breeze, you have to

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Speaker 2: get pressure up the middle. That's the only way that

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Speaker 2: you're going to really throw them off. So Vikings really

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Speaker 2: good against the run, really good covering tight ends. I

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Speaker 2: think they're gonna get pressure up the middle. Jimmy G's

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Speaker 2: first playoff game, I think there's gonna be some nerves.

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Speaker 2: You could have a little wind. Not really effective for me,

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Speaker 2: but it could come into play. And by the way,

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Speaker 2: if the forty nine ers move the ball down the

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Speaker 2: field and then Shanahan cooks up this some new run schemes.

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Speaker 2: Vikings last three years top five in red zone defense.

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Speaker 2: Red zone defense is always excellent. They tackle really well,

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Speaker 2: their safeties are really good, and they're just a well

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Speaker 2: coached defensive unit, which is why you know they don't

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Speaker 2: really blow a lot of assignments down in the red zone.

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Speaker 2: The other side of the ball, you have this sant

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Speaker 2: Fran defense, which I think towards the end of the

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Speaker 2: year it got a little tired, and that's understandable. You

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Speaker 2: know they had they didn't have a buye since Week four.

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Speaker 2: They were dealing with a lot of injuries, so you

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Speaker 2: saw guys like Buckner, they just looked a little fatigued

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Speaker 2: at the end of the year.

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Speaker 1: So I think the buye helps their defensive lot.

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Speaker 2: Now you're adding Tart at safety back, d Ford huge

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Speaker 2: getting him back at Kwan Alexander back, so you're getting

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Speaker 2: three defensive starters back for this week. And if you

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Speaker 2: go back to the first few weeks of the season,

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Speaker 2: the forty nine Ers defense was putting up historic numbers,

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Speaker 2: historic pressure rates. The pressure rate with de Ford in

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Speaker 2: the lineup is about ten percent higher this year. So

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Speaker 2: I think they're gonna be able to pressure Cousins, who,

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Speaker 2: by the way, was only pressured eight times eight times

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Speaker 2: last week against the Saints. You pressure him, you get

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Speaker 2: them off of his spot. You know they're going to

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Speaker 2: run a lot of play action. It takes them a

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Speaker 2: little bit of time to throw the ball in the pocket.

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Speaker 2: So and they're gonna be able to get pressure while

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Speaker 2: maintaining coverage in the back end. Secondary is now healthy.

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Speaker 2: Vikings are gonna have toly a ton on Cook. I

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Speaker 2: think Cook's going to have some success. That is how

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Speaker 2: you move the ball in the forty nine ers, but

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Speaker 2: Cousins is going to have just I think they're going

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Speaker 2: to be in his face all day. This defense is

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Speaker 2: going to look like the defense that we saw earlier

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Speaker 2: in the year. So I think both defensive lines dominate

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Speaker 2: this game. You don't see a ton of explosive plays,

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Speaker 2: a lot of running, good red zone defense across the board,

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Speaker 2: a lot of field goals over touchdowns, which I think

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Speaker 2: lends itself to an underplay. And then I'm taking the

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Speaker 2: seven with the Vikings. I think it's just a tad

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Speaker 2: too many points fading Jimmy gen his first playoffs start here.

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Speaker 2: All the pressures on that side. I think this Vikings

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Speaker 2: defense will keep it close. I think they can get.

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Speaker 1: Enough pressure and they match up well. That matchup with

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Speaker 1: Kittle is so big. That and the forty nine ers receivers.

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Speaker 2: You know they might make a player too here, Roads

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Speaker 2: might blow a coverage that it might lead to a touchdown.

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Speaker 2: But other than that, this defense is solid across the board.

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Speaker 2: So give me the Vikings plus seven for one point,

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Speaker 2: and then give me the under forty four and a

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Speaker 2: half for two points.

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Speaker 3: I actually like the other side of this game, so

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Speaker 3: rat but I'm going to do it is my one

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Speaker 3: point pick because it's going to essentially be a two

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Speaker 3: point swing anyway. But I'll talk about it now. Yeah, yeah,

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Speaker 3: so that we can just move on to our other pick.

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Speaker 3: So we'll do it that way. And we have a

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Speaker 3: piece out right now in actually network where we give

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Speaker 3: some tips to first time betters. And one of the

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Speaker 3: things I mentioned is you always want to look and

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Speaker 3: kind of as your starting point, kind of say look

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Speaker 3: at the underdog and say, essentially, why shouldn't I bet

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Speaker 3: this underdog? Why shouldn't I take the points? That's generally

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Speaker 3: how I like to think of betting, So you know,

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Speaker 3: that's kind of how I approached it. When I first

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Speaker 3: started the weekend, I wasn't quite sure which way I

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Speaker 3: was gonna end up winning in this game, but I

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Speaker 3: like the forty nine Ers in this game, and you

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Speaker 3: got to hit on it. There's no pressure on Kirk Cousins,

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Speaker 3: but there will be pressure on Kirk Cousins. And what

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Speaker 3: I mean by that is this forty nine Ers team

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Speaker 3: tied for second in pressure rate during the regular season

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Speaker 3: with twenty eight point seven percent. Now the key here.

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Speaker 3: The key where I like the forty Nineers in this

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Speaker 3: spot is because the way you beat Kirk Cousins is

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Speaker 3: you get pressure without blitzing. The forty nine ers with

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Speaker 3: that defensive line, with Buckner and Armstead and Bosa and

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Speaker 3: all those guys D four coming back, they were the

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Speaker 3: fourth least blitz heavy team in the National Football League

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Speaker 3: this year, so they got the second high most pressure

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Speaker 3: and they blitzed at a bottom five or eight. And

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Speaker 3: that is exactly exactly how you beat Kirk Cousins. With

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Speaker 3: that Saints win, that only was his second this season.

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Speaker 3: In his starts against the team with a winning record,

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Speaker 3: they're two and four against teams with a winning record,

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Speaker 3: two and four against the spread as well. And if

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Speaker 3: you look back at the last time we saw Cousins

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Speaker 3: prior to that, which I thought created some recency bias,

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Speaker 3: and why I like the Vikings last week was that

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Speaker 3: game against Green Bay. And here's what you have to

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Speaker 3: know about Kirk Cousins. He is one of the weast

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Speaker 3: blitzed quarterbacks in the week twenty two point eight percent.

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Speaker 3: Most defensive coordinators, they know that you don't beat Kirk

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Speaker 3: Cousins by blitzing him. You beat him by getting pressure

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Speaker 3: without blitzing him. So I'll give you some numbers from

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Speaker 3: the New Orleans game first and then compare it to

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Speaker 3: the Green Bay game to kind of illustrate my point.

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Speaker 3: In the New Orleans game, they blitzed him nine times.

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Speaker 3: He had thirty three dropbacks. They blitzed them nine times.

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Speaker 3: He goes six for nine, one hundred and twenty two

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Speaker 3: yards in a touchdown, thirteen point six yards per attempt.

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Speaker 3: You go back to that Green Bay game, he had

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Speaker 3: thirty six dropbacks. In that game. They blitzed him one time,

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Speaker 3: one time on thirty six drop Yet they still got

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Speaker 3: pressure seventeen times in that game despite only blitzing ones.

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Speaker 3: In that game, Cousins finished sixteen to thirty one one

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Speaker 3: hundred and twenty two yards. This is against all pressure

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Speaker 3: or not three point nine yards per tienpt. So when

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Speaker 3: I look at this game, I say, Okay, the Saints

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Speaker 3: last week they were missing Sheldon Rankins and some guys

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Speaker 3: on the interior that could get pressure, so they dialed

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Speaker 3: up some pressure. Generally not a smart strategy against Cousins.

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Speaker 3: This forty nine Ers defense could emuate that Packers game

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Speaker 3: plan to better than the Packers could even do it

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Speaker 3: because they have all their guys back, and not only

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Speaker 3: what makes the forty nine or so dominant because besides

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Speaker 3: getting such a high pressure rate without blitzing, they finished

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Speaker 3: number one in the league, the only team better than

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Speaker 3: the Patriots on defense and this is full season number

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Speaker 3: so even when their defense kind of fell off with

357
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Speaker 3: Sherman and Ford missed some games, Kawan Alexander Tart, they

358
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Speaker 3: still finished number one in the league in net yards

359
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Speaker 3: per pass attempt, which means it's really per dropback. So essentially,

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Speaker 3: once you remove sackyards four point eight best in the league,

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Speaker 3: that is a daunting task. I think for Cousins now

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Speaker 3: on a short week, without that two weeks to prepare

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Speaker 3: against Robert Salay, who you know, we talk about Shanahan

364
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Speaker 3: a lot, but you know, this forty nine Ers defense excellent,

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Speaker 3: you know. So I think that Kirk Cousins is going

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Speaker 3: to have a lot of issues in this game. And

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Speaker 3: if you look at all the teams that he lost to,

368
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Speaker 3: and in the Vikings loss to, it's been the same story.

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Speaker 3: It's that you haven't really blitzed Cousins and he just

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Speaker 3: whether it's a clean pocket or not, he just kind

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Speaker 3: of takes the underneath throw. He's not challenging downfield, and

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Speaker 3: he's taking sacks. And the yards per attempt just isn't

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Speaker 3: there just seven point one yards in attempt in his

374
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Speaker 3: games against winning teams versus well over eight in the

375
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Speaker 3: ten games they won against bad teams that are five

376
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Speaker 3: hundred or worse. So, like, this game to me just

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Speaker 3: strikes me as one where like, yeah, it could go

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Speaker 3: either way. I think the line is generally a probably fair.

379
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Speaker 3: I just think if it swings one way or the other,

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Speaker 3: there's a much larger likelihood of the forty nine ers

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Speaker 3: blowing the Vikings out, then I would say there is

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Speaker 3: of the Vikings blowing the forty nine ers and the

383
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Speaker 3: like the guys that the Niners are getting back. We

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Speaker 3: can't understate them. Because Kawan Alexander top ten in coverage

385
00:17:06,560 --> 00:17:09,359
Speaker 3: from PFF in terms of linebackers D four, we know

386
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Speaker 3: he's one of the best pass rushers Jakuiski Tart Weeks

387
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Speaker 3: one to twelve. With Tart in the lineup, they ranked

388
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Speaker 3: number one in success rate allowed to running backs, number

389
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Speaker 3: two to tight ends, and number two to wide receivers.

390
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Speaker 3: He plays on he plays usually he plays he's back

391
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Speaker 3: playing safety. That just helps with Richard Turman and what

392
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Speaker 3: he's able to do and kind of eliminating that area

393
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Speaker 3: of the field. And if you look at Cousins last week,

394
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Speaker 3: he had those two big completions with thee win seventy seven,

395
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Speaker 3: two of two for seventy seven yards to the deep

396
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Speaker 3: right part of the field, both completions to Adam thie Win.

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Speaker 3: You take those out and he's seventeen to twenty nine

398
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Speaker 3: for five point seven yards per attempt. In the twelve

399
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Speaker 3: weeks that Tart was there with San fran they allowed

400
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Speaker 3: five completions to that part of the field in those

401
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Speaker 3: twelve games. Think that, you know, combine that with all

402
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Speaker 3: of these guys that they're getting back fully healthy, being

403
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Speaker 3: able to get pressure without witzing. I actually don't think

404
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Speaker 3: the Vikings match up very well with with San Franciscoto.

405
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Speaker 3: And on the other end, I think it's fair to

406
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Speaker 3: you know, you say it is. It is Jimmy Garoppoll's

407
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Speaker 3: first playoff start. That doesn't make me feel great. I

408
00:18:17,520 --> 00:18:20,359
Speaker 3: think he will commit some mistakes. He will make mistakes,

409
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Speaker 3: but at the end of the day, this Vikings defense

410
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Speaker 3: there they live dangerously with with that third with those

411
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Speaker 3: third down with that third down dominance, you could say,

412
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Speaker 3: because when you look at first and second down, which

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00:18:32,400 --> 00:18:34,480
Speaker 3: tends to be a little more predictive. You know, there

414
00:18:34,480 --> 00:18:37,080
Speaker 3: are more first and second downs in a game, you know,

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Speaker 3: just generally a you know, the numbers are going to

416
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Speaker 3: be more predictive going forward. The Vikings defense surprisingly not

417
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Speaker 3: very good on early downs against the runner of the pass.

418
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Speaker 3: And this really surprisingly because they're actually dead last allowing

419
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Speaker 3: a fifty five percent of run success rate on first

420
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Speaker 3: and second downs, and then they're twenty fourth in past

421
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Speaker 3: success rate on first and down at fifty one percent.

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Speaker 3: I get it with Jimmy g the numbers aren't promising,

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Speaker 3: But at the end of the day, I just think

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Speaker 3: that this forty nine ers defense is going to be

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Speaker 3: able to dominate. Like last week, I mentioned that the

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Speaker 3: Saints schedule adjusted margin of victory was only two points

427
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Speaker 3: better than the Vikings, So that line was pretty off

428
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Speaker 3: if even when you factored in the home field advantage. Well,

429
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Speaker 3: you know, even after you remove the you know, forty

430
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Speaker 3: nine Ers is about is eleven and the Vikings is

431
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Speaker 3: five point four. You adjust for that Saints win and

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Speaker 3: you remove the Bears meetingless game, and then you factor

433
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Speaker 3: in the home field and it still should be about

434
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Speaker 3: seven and a half eight. So this is a spot

435
00:19:34,400 --> 00:19:38,000
Speaker 3: where don't usually take the favorites. The underdogs have been

436
00:19:38,040 --> 00:19:39,880
Speaker 3: better bets, you know, according to the trends. I get

437
00:19:39,920 --> 00:19:42,359
Speaker 3: that first time quarterback, but I think this is a

438
00:19:42,400 --> 00:19:46,439
Speaker 3: severe mismatch in terms of defense versus offense, pretty much

439
00:19:46,480 --> 00:19:48,840
Speaker 3: the biggest one I think I see in the postseason.

440
00:19:48,920 --> 00:19:51,720
Speaker 3: So that's why I'm rolling with the Niners here.

441
00:19:52,040 --> 00:19:54,359
Speaker 2: Tart is huge. I mean, there's a lot of communication.

442
00:19:54,440 --> 00:19:57,760
Speaker 2: That's a complex defensive backfield. Tart and Ward were high

443
00:19:57,800 --> 00:19:59,920
Speaker 2: school teammates. These are two safeties that know each other

444
00:20:00,040 --> 00:20:01,879
Speaker 2: really well. But what this comes down to me, you

445
00:20:01,960 --> 00:20:03,959
Speaker 2: said it, when in doubt take the seven or more

446
00:20:04,000 --> 00:20:06,280
Speaker 2: in the NFL playoffs, it's about sixty percent on.

447
00:20:06,200 --> 00:20:07,880
Speaker 1: The dot since two thousand and three. Five.

448
00:20:07,920 --> 00:20:09,320
Speaker 2: What this comes down to to me is I think

449
00:20:09,320 --> 00:20:12,480
Speaker 2: it'll be lower scoring, so seven points then becomes more valuable,

450
00:20:12,720 --> 00:20:14,639
Speaker 2: and I think both teams are going to get pressure.

451
00:20:14,720 --> 00:20:17,440
Speaker 2: Look at their season long numbers went under pressure. Cousins

452
00:20:17,440 --> 00:20:21,600
Speaker 2: seven touchdowns, one pick, seventy three percent adjusted completion percentage,

453
00:20:21,640 --> 00:20:24,320
Speaker 2: third in the league, only sack sixteen percent of the time.

454
00:20:24,480 --> 00:20:27,120
Speaker 2: That's twenty as far as you know, be top ten.

455
00:20:27,320 --> 00:20:30,800
Speaker 2: Jimmy G five touchdowns, five picks, sixty eight point six

456
00:20:30,800 --> 00:20:33,679
Speaker 2: adjusted completion percentage about five percent less than Cousins, with

457
00:20:34,080 --> 00:20:36,560
Speaker 2: top five in the league, sack twenty three percent of

458
00:20:36,600 --> 00:20:39,000
Speaker 2: the time, that's fifth highest. Tends to hold the ball

459
00:20:39,040 --> 00:20:41,240
Speaker 2: a little longer at times. You know, he gets rid

460
00:20:41,280 --> 00:20:42,960
Speaker 2: of the ball generally quick, but sometimes he'll end up

461
00:20:43,000 --> 00:20:45,359
Speaker 2: holding it and then he turns it over more than

462
00:20:45,440 --> 00:20:46,040
Speaker 2: Kirk Cousins.

463
00:20:46,080 --> 00:20:47,040
Speaker 1: Go back to the game last.

464
00:20:46,960 --> 00:20:48,800
Speaker 2: Year when they played each other in the Vikings one

465
00:20:48,800 --> 00:20:51,040
Speaker 2: in Week one, obviously different forty nine ers team. Jimmy

466
00:20:51,040 --> 00:20:53,240
Speaker 2: G threw three picks, Cousins didn't turn the ball over

467
00:20:53,280 --> 00:20:55,800
Speaker 2: at all. Vikings won twenty four to sixteen. So where

468
00:20:55,840 --> 00:20:58,840
Speaker 2: I think that the first start, first playoffs start shows

469
00:20:58,880 --> 00:21:01,399
Speaker 2: up here is because the Vikings are good at covering

470
00:21:01,400 --> 00:21:03,560
Speaker 2: tight ends, are good against the run. They're going to

471
00:21:03,600 --> 00:21:06,320
Speaker 2: get pressure, and I think Jimmy G is the quarterback

472
00:21:06,359 --> 00:21:08,760
Speaker 2: that's more likely, based on the stats and based on

473
00:21:08,720 --> 00:21:10,320
Speaker 2: this being his first playoff game and all the pressure

474
00:21:10,359 --> 00:21:12,400
Speaker 2: to make a mistake that'll swing this cover.

475
00:21:12,640 --> 00:21:15,680
Speaker 1: So that's my final argument.

476
00:21:15,680 --> 00:21:20,440
Speaker 3: I really strongly think that like we're underestimating bad cousins

477
00:21:20,520 --> 00:21:22,720
Speaker 3: those pressure numbers, and I looked at them. I'm actually

478
00:21:22,720 --> 00:21:26,439
Speaker 3: don't doing a piece on pressure and in blitzing and

479
00:21:26,440 --> 00:21:29,600
Speaker 3: how that kind of affects, you know, how defenses dictate

480
00:21:30,160 --> 00:21:31,760
Speaker 3: where the offense goes with the ball and how to

481
00:21:31,880 --> 00:21:33,280
Speaker 3: use it to bet props and things to look out

482
00:21:33,320 --> 00:21:35,919
Speaker 3: for that piece on Action Network. So I'm actually I've

483
00:21:35,960 --> 00:21:38,760
Speaker 3: been looking deep into these numbers. He can beat the blitz.

484
00:21:39,000 --> 00:21:43,280
Speaker 3: Those numbers don't specify between pressure when a team is

485
00:21:43,320 --> 00:21:46,880
Speaker 3: blitzing or pressure when they still have seven guys back

486
00:21:46,880 --> 00:21:49,879
Speaker 3: in coverage. They could get ugly for Cousins and advice.

487
00:21:49,960 --> 00:21:51,680
Speaker 3: Even if Jimmy G makes a couple of mistakes, I

488
00:21:51,760 --> 00:21:54,480
Speaker 3: think they have a lot larger margin for error in

489
00:21:54,560 --> 00:21:54,960
Speaker 3: his spot.

490
00:21:55,320 --> 00:21:57,359
Speaker 2: You're sleeping on a cook though. That's that's how you

491
00:21:57,400 --> 00:21:59,119
Speaker 2: move the ball on the forty nine ers. By the way,

492
00:21:59,119 --> 00:22:01,000
Speaker 2: you're four nine ers. Since they've out the Packers five

493
00:22:01,040 --> 00:22:04,200
Speaker 2: games in December, lost by three, one by two, lost

494
00:22:04,240 --> 00:22:07,359
Speaker 2: to the Falcons, beat the Rams by three, and should

495
00:22:07,400 --> 00:22:09,000
Speaker 2: a loss of the Seahawks, and they gave up like

496
00:22:09,080 --> 00:22:11,119
Speaker 2: thirty points in all those games. I think their defense

497
00:22:11,160 --> 00:22:13,080
Speaker 2: is a lot better. It's rested, so I think it

498
00:22:13,119 --> 00:22:15,600
Speaker 2: does show up here. But you mentioned it before. Kyle

499
00:22:15,640 --> 00:22:19,080
Speaker 2: Shanahan not great as a favorite against the spread, like father,

500
00:22:19,280 --> 00:22:23,080
Speaker 2: like son. Mike Shanahan is the least profitable in our

501
00:22:23,160 --> 00:22:26,280
Speaker 2: database in two thousand and three by a wide march,

502
00:22:26,560 --> 00:22:27,440
Speaker 2: so obvious leave that.

503
00:22:27,760 --> 00:22:30,399
Speaker 3: Kyle Shanahan kind of reminds me of that. The Falcons though,

504
00:22:30,400 --> 00:22:32,000
Speaker 3: because I mean, dan Quinn wasn't really their coach. He

505
00:22:32,119 --> 00:22:35,000
Speaker 3: was their coach, but he wasn't their coach twenty eight three.

506
00:22:35,000 --> 00:22:38,280
Speaker 3: I'm sure we're betting on this like none nothing because

507
00:22:38,520 --> 00:22:40,800
Speaker 3: to do Kirk Cousins sucks. Wait, let's move on because

508
00:22:40,800 --> 00:22:41,840
Speaker 3: we spend a lot of time on it.

509
00:22:41,920 --> 00:22:43,359
Speaker 1: So you got to do one of your two pointers now.

510
00:22:43,560 --> 00:22:45,280
Speaker 3: And this is another one where it's kind of there.

511
00:22:45,359 --> 00:22:48,160
Speaker 3: I have two from the same game, so I guess

512
00:22:48,200 --> 00:22:49,840
Speaker 3: I'll kind of talk about them both. The one I

513
00:22:49,920 --> 00:22:52,320
Speaker 3: feel better about of the two, I'll say is I

514
00:22:52,520 --> 00:22:56,280
Speaker 3: like Packer Seahawks under forty seven. It opened at forty

515
00:22:56,280 --> 00:22:58,600
Speaker 3: six and a half dropped and then I think it

516
00:22:58,800 --> 00:23:02,280
Speaker 3: got steamed up to forty seven. Again. I don't think

517
00:23:02,320 --> 00:23:04,920
Speaker 3: that's the right player, I would bet the under, and

518
00:23:04,960 --> 00:23:06,640
Speaker 3: I think it has a chance to go way under.

519
00:23:07,119 --> 00:23:07,680
Speaker 1: And here's why.

520
00:23:08,000 --> 00:23:11,200
Speaker 3: First of all, Russell Wilson. He talked about this last week,

521
00:23:11,240 --> 00:23:12,800
Speaker 3: and this is why I like the under last week.

522
00:23:13,200 --> 00:23:16,920
Speaker 3: Just removing any other factor. Russell Wilson and the Seahawks

523
00:23:17,000 --> 00:23:20,520
Speaker 3: have no running game and no offensive line. You know,

524
00:23:20,640 --> 00:23:24,119
Speaker 3: Dwayne Brown or left tackle, he's gone justin Britain. They

525
00:23:24,200 --> 00:23:26,920
Speaker 3: lost their starting center. They're starting Joey Hunt, who's just

526
00:23:27,280 --> 00:23:30,560
Speaker 3: generally overmatched against pretty much anyone he goes up against.

527
00:23:31,000 --> 00:23:31,639
Speaker 1: I believe they do.

528
00:23:32,000 --> 00:23:34,760
Speaker 3: Yeah, right, they don't have They don't have a top

529
00:23:35,560 --> 00:23:37,760
Speaker 3: you know, thirty two linemen at any position in terms

530
00:23:37,760 --> 00:23:41,200
Speaker 3: of PFFS grades. So just first and foremost, they have

531
00:23:41,320 --> 00:23:43,000
Speaker 3: no run game. Travis Homer. I think it was what

532
00:23:43,080 --> 00:23:45,800
Speaker 3: eleven carries for twelve yards last week. His long was

533
00:23:45,880 --> 00:23:48,359
Speaker 3: twelve and then Marshaun Winch had something like I think

534
00:23:48,440 --> 00:23:51,439
Speaker 3: five for seven. So don't expect them to run. Even

535
00:23:51,440 --> 00:23:53,159
Speaker 3: though the Packers haven't been great in run defense, I

536
00:23:53,200 --> 00:23:55,399
Speaker 3: think the Packers can kind of address that with scheme.

537
00:23:55,760 --> 00:23:58,639
Speaker 3: To an extent. They can play man coverage if they

538
00:23:58,680 --> 00:24:01,280
Speaker 3: want to. With their corners. They have safeties and the

539
00:24:01,320 --> 00:24:04,440
Speaker 3: Seahawks pretty concentrated passing game. I think Metcalf has another

540
00:24:04,480 --> 00:24:06,639
Speaker 3: good game. I will say that it gets a good matchup,

541
00:24:06,720 --> 00:24:09,720
Speaker 3: but overall, not a spot where I would expect the

542
00:24:09,720 --> 00:24:12,440
Speaker 3: Seahawks to put up a lot of points. And then

543
00:24:12,480 --> 00:24:14,240
Speaker 3: you look at the other side of the matchup, you

544
00:24:14,320 --> 00:24:17,480
Speaker 3: have Aaron Rodgers, and it's like, I'm knee deep in

545
00:24:17,760 --> 00:24:21,000
Speaker 3: NFL stats, whether it be for fantasy, for betting, whatever,

546
00:24:21,280 --> 00:24:23,400
Speaker 3: all year long and there so there's not many times

547
00:24:23,400 --> 00:24:25,680
Speaker 3: where I am like, I look at numbers and I

548
00:24:25,800 --> 00:24:29,640
Speaker 3: am absolutely stunned by them, you know, in looking back

549
00:24:29,680 --> 00:24:32,200
Speaker 3: at them. But when I was doing the quarterback confidence piece,

550
00:24:32,400 --> 00:24:34,399
Speaker 3: you know, Aaron Rodgers is a guy you know, you

551
00:24:34,480 --> 00:24:36,240
Speaker 3: always he's kind of in contention for number one just

552
00:24:36,240 --> 00:24:38,840
Speaker 3: because he's Aaron Rodgers. So I'm kind of trying to see, Okay,

553
00:24:38,880 --> 00:24:41,520
Speaker 3: what's been going on with Rodgers lately? Since DeVante Adams

554
00:24:41,520 --> 00:24:44,200
Speaker 3: has come back. So those eight games second half of

555
00:24:44,240 --> 00:24:49,119
Speaker 3: the year, Davante back Aaron Rodgers five point eight seven

556
00:24:49,720 --> 00:24:53,479
Speaker 3: yards per pass attempt, not net, but like act straight

557
00:24:53,560 --> 00:24:57,359
Speaker 3: up yards per pass attempt. This offense has become a

558
00:24:57,520 --> 00:25:00,960
Speaker 3: dink and dunk offense. They get marqez Veld scanting pretty

559
00:25:01,040 --> 00:25:04,880
Speaker 3: much their best you know, deep ball receiver barely plays anymore.

560
00:25:05,359 --> 00:25:08,040
Speaker 3: He got demoted in favor of Allen Lazar, who's better

561
00:25:08,119 --> 00:25:10,360
Speaker 3: in the run game. And they're leaning on the run game,

562
00:25:10,400 --> 00:25:11,920
Speaker 3: and you know so, and I think they will do

563
00:25:12,000 --> 00:25:13,840
Speaker 3: that against the Seahawks, who are down to twenty ninth

564
00:25:13,920 --> 00:25:16,640
Speaker 3: over the second half in terms of weighted DVOA, which

565
00:25:16,680 --> 00:25:19,000
Speaker 3: waits the games removes weeks one through four and waits

566
00:25:19,119 --> 00:25:21,480
Speaker 3: the more recent games more heavily in terms of schedule

567
00:25:21,480 --> 00:25:24,479
Speaker 3: adjusted efficiency. So I think the Packers going to come

568
00:25:24,520 --> 00:25:27,800
Speaker 3: out run the football. This Seattle offensive line with with

569
00:25:28,800 --> 00:25:32,520
Speaker 3: with you know, essentially second string a second string, oh starting,

570
00:25:33,080 --> 00:25:35,399
Speaker 3: They're not going to be able to handle the Smiths. Again,

571
00:25:35,520 --> 00:25:37,720
Speaker 3: Packers have good safeties on the back end, their cornerbacks,

572
00:25:37,760 --> 00:25:39,200
Speaker 3: they are able to cover and man if they want

573
00:25:39,240 --> 00:25:41,480
Speaker 3: to send pressure, which they don't really, I don't even

574
00:25:41,520 --> 00:25:43,280
Speaker 3: think they have to. I think they're another team's gonna

575
00:25:43,280 --> 00:25:44,960
Speaker 3: be able to get pressure, just like they did in

576
00:25:45,000 --> 00:25:47,840
Speaker 3: that Vikings game. You know, they kind of stumbled around

577
00:25:47,840 --> 00:25:49,920
Speaker 3: in at that Yan's game one twenty three twenty, but

578
00:25:50,200 --> 00:25:53,120
Speaker 3: in the last their last real like meeting for god,

579
00:25:53,480 --> 00:25:55,399
Speaker 3: you know game where they really wanted to make a statement.

580
00:25:55,600 --> 00:25:58,960
Speaker 3: They got pressure a ton on Cousins without without with

581
00:25:59,160 --> 00:26:00,399
Speaker 3: so much. You know, I think they can do the

582
00:26:00,440 --> 00:26:02,320
Speaker 3: same thing with Russ kind of contain it the rush

583
00:26:02,400 --> 00:26:04,680
Speaker 3: lanes a little better because of it. Seattle is not

584
00:26:04,720 --> 00:26:06,080
Speaker 3: gonna be a threat to run the ball, but they're

585
00:26:06,160 --> 00:26:09,080
Speaker 3: going to try because they're Seattle. And so I think

586
00:26:09,160 --> 00:26:11,560
Speaker 3: that again is going to kind of keep the first

587
00:26:11,560 --> 00:26:13,760
Speaker 3: half pretty ugly. We've seen it with the Packers over

588
00:26:13,760 --> 00:26:16,120
Speaker 3: and over. They can run the ball Aaron Rodgers will

589
00:26:16,160 --> 00:26:18,280
Speaker 3: not turn it over. Then they kind of just they

590
00:26:18,359 --> 00:26:20,800
Speaker 3: kind of just played out the clock. They hold onto

591
00:26:20,880 --> 00:26:23,399
Speaker 3: these leads, and that they've they've lost a lot of

592
00:26:23,480 --> 00:26:28,200
Speaker 3: covers in the second half because they really have just

593
00:26:28,320 --> 00:26:29,879
Speaker 3: kind of turned it off in the second half. So

594
00:26:30,240 --> 00:26:32,040
Speaker 3: I'm expecting more of that. And then you kind of

595
00:26:32,040 --> 00:26:33,879
Speaker 3: look at the numbers of these two guys and despite

596
00:26:34,080 --> 00:26:36,600
Speaker 3: them being they're rated one two and passer rating all

597
00:26:36,680 --> 00:26:38,960
Speaker 3: time among quarterbacks of at least as many attempts as

598
00:26:39,040 --> 00:26:41,119
Speaker 3: either of them. I think it's like Wilson has like

599
00:26:41,119 --> 00:26:43,480
Speaker 3: a little over thirty five hundred attempts, So like this

600
00:26:43,640 --> 00:26:46,600
Speaker 3: is gonna be billed as a matchup of two great quarterbacks,

601
00:26:46,600 --> 00:26:48,200
Speaker 3: and I think people are gonna look to the over

602
00:26:48,320 --> 00:26:52,920
Speaker 3: because of it. But in terms of third down conversion

603
00:26:53,000 --> 00:26:56,800
Speaker 3: rate with when a quarterback is either attempting, is either

604
00:26:56,880 --> 00:26:59,480
Speaker 3: dropping back, or on all plays in which he ran,

605
00:27:00,000 --> 00:27:03,560
Speaker 3: Wilson and Rodgers rank last among the eight quarterbacks left

606
00:27:03,720 --> 00:27:06,280
Speaker 3: in the divisional round, thirty seven set point seven percent

607
00:27:06,320 --> 00:27:08,600
Speaker 3: for Wilson, thirty six point five percent for Rogers. On

608
00:27:08,800 --> 00:27:11,800
Speaker 3: third down ranks seven and eight among the quarterbacks still alive.

609
00:27:11,880 --> 00:27:15,000
Speaker 3: So these got but they've but Rodgers only four picks,

610
00:27:15,080 --> 00:27:17,520
Speaker 3: Wilson five picks. They're not going to turn the ball over.

611
00:27:17,560 --> 00:27:19,920
Speaker 3: They're gonna make the right play, even if it means punting.

612
00:27:20,280 --> 00:27:22,760
Speaker 3: Both of them are interested in running the football, so

613
00:27:23,000 --> 00:27:25,920
Speaker 3: I think this game is going to go under. Seattle's

614
00:27:25,920 --> 00:27:28,520
Speaker 3: defense also been playing better, actually a little bit above

615
00:27:28,560 --> 00:27:31,480
Speaker 3: average in terms of DVOA over the second half of

616
00:27:31,520 --> 00:27:34,159
Speaker 3: the year, getting a little healthier, and then again Rogers

617
00:27:34,280 --> 00:27:37,240
Speaker 3: just dinking dunk nowadays. I think Adams can rack up catches,

618
00:27:37,320 --> 00:27:40,760
Speaker 3: but and they'll convert first downs at times, probably timely,

619
00:27:40,920 --> 00:27:42,520
Speaker 3: But I don't think this is going to be a

620
00:27:42,560 --> 00:27:44,639
Speaker 3: high scoring game. In terms of straight up quarterbacks, I

621
00:27:44,680 --> 00:27:46,000
Speaker 3: think at this point you have to be a little

622
00:27:46,080 --> 00:27:48,120
Speaker 3: more confident in Wilson. But I don't think this game

623
00:27:48,200 --> 00:27:50,320
Speaker 3: comes down to Wilson. I don't think this game comes

624
00:27:50,359 --> 00:27:53,520
Speaker 3: down to Wilson versus Rogers. And that's why I'm also

625
00:27:53,600 --> 00:27:56,879
Speaker 3: taking the Packers minus four, because I think that this

626
00:27:57,000 --> 00:27:59,159
Speaker 3: game is going to come down to who has the

627
00:27:59,240 --> 00:28:02,560
Speaker 3: better matchup outside of these quarterbacks, who are you know,

628
00:28:02,840 --> 00:28:05,919
Speaker 3: fairly evenly matched, And I think it's it's the Packers

629
00:28:05,960 --> 00:28:07,840
Speaker 3: with Aaron Jones in that running game, because again, the

630
00:28:07,880 --> 00:28:10,800
Speaker 3: Seahawks number twenty nine in schedule, just a deficiency in

631
00:28:10,960 --> 00:28:13,320
Speaker 3: terms of defending the run. They're gonna they're gonna play

632
00:28:13,320 --> 00:28:15,879
Speaker 3: their their zone and they're gonna limit exposive plays, but

633
00:28:16,080 --> 00:28:17,680
Speaker 3: they're not gonna have They're not gonna have an answer

634
00:28:17,720 --> 00:28:19,560
Speaker 3: for Aaron Jones. They didn't really have one from Miles

635
00:28:19,600 --> 00:28:22,720
Speaker 3: Sanders on the ground Boston Scott either last week. So

636
00:28:23,200 --> 00:28:24,840
Speaker 3: I think that will be the difference in the game.

637
00:28:25,080 --> 00:28:26,440
Speaker 3: And I just think, I see this is one of

638
00:28:26,480 --> 00:28:28,280
Speaker 3: those games kind of like that Rams game, and I

639
00:28:28,359 --> 00:28:31,040
Speaker 3: think you called this where the Seattle team against a

640
00:28:31,040 --> 00:28:33,040
Speaker 3: team that can get pressure especially if they don't have

641
00:28:33,200 --> 00:28:36,520
Speaker 3: to necessarily blitz. It can get ugly for them. And

642
00:28:36,960 --> 00:28:38,680
Speaker 3: I don't think they're built well to play from behind.

643
00:28:38,720 --> 00:28:41,280
Speaker 3: I think Green Bay is also more likely to get

644
00:28:41,360 --> 00:28:43,720
Speaker 3: up in this one. So rolling with the under forty

645
00:28:43,760 --> 00:28:46,840
Speaker 3: seven and Packers minus four.

646
00:28:47,360 --> 00:28:50,760
Speaker 1: Yeah, she stands alone.

647
00:28:51,600 --> 00:28:53,520
Speaker 2: Well yeah, I mean you said it with the offensive lot.

648
00:28:53,600 --> 00:28:56,040
Speaker 2: Pete Carroll said today Dwayne Brown did a little work

649
00:28:56,080 --> 00:28:56,920
Speaker 2: but didn't practice.

650
00:28:57,040 --> 00:28:57,920
Speaker 1: That doesn't sound good.

651
00:28:57,920 --> 00:29:00,239
Speaker 3: I would be highly surprised if you play up.

652
00:29:00,240 --> 00:29:02,800
Speaker 2: You have Justin Brent the other their second best offense lineman,

653
00:29:02,880 --> 00:29:05,600
Speaker 2: he's out. Ethan Pochis who's their backup, and you know,

654
00:29:05,720 --> 00:29:08,960
Speaker 2: guard center, he's out. And then au Potty didn't practice,

655
00:29:09,040 --> 00:29:11,520
Speaker 2: Datus sending the second opinion, their other starting guard.

656
00:29:11,720 --> 00:29:14,200
Speaker 1: So now you're down to a rookie.

657
00:29:14,360 --> 00:29:16,640
Speaker 2: I think Phil Haynes if there's an injury and you

658
00:29:16,720 --> 00:29:18,640
Speaker 2: can't come out with these six man fronts that you like,

659
00:29:19,080 --> 00:29:20,760
Speaker 2: and yeah, I agree with you. I mean what I

660
00:29:21,120 --> 00:29:23,000
Speaker 2: like better is the Packers first half. I mean, you

661
00:29:23,200 --> 00:29:25,880
Speaker 2: avoid this Russell Wilson magic. But by the way, the

662
00:29:25,960 --> 00:29:30,440
Speaker 2: last time these two teams played, I believe the Packers

663
00:29:30,520 --> 00:29:33,520
Speaker 2: led nineteen seven with in the twenty fourteen Division run

664
00:29:33,720 --> 00:29:36,280
Speaker 2: oh the Packers at home led nineteen seven with three

665
00:29:36,360 --> 00:29:40,080
Speaker 2: minutes to go, and the Seahawks ended up winning like

666
00:29:40,080 --> 00:29:42,400
Speaker 2: twenty eight twenty two in overtime.

667
00:29:42,280 --> 00:29:44,920
Speaker 3: Luke Wilson Hail Mary two point conversion followed by the

668
00:29:45,200 --> 00:29:47,040
Speaker 3: boss was it Bostick? I think his name was for

669
00:29:47,120 --> 00:29:49,240
Speaker 3: the Packers on side kick muff.

670
00:29:49,160 --> 00:29:50,040
Speaker 1: It fumbled it yep.

671
00:29:50,040 --> 00:29:52,200
Speaker 2: But then Morgan Burnett had a pick that he didn't

672
00:29:52,240 --> 00:29:53,760
Speaker 2: return all the way and he went down and then

673
00:29:53,800 --> 00:29:57,120
Speaker 2: the Packers ended up picking which started it all. But yeah,

674
00:29:57,200 --> 00:29:59,360
Speaker 2: so I mean what I think this comes down to is, look,

675
00:29:59,400 --> 00:30:01,160
Speaker 2: they're gonna Pia Kara Kaman Sai, They're going to use

676
00:30:01,160 --> 00:30:03,600
Speaker 2: Marshaun Lynch Moore. I mean, the guys out of breath

677
00:30:03,640 --> 00:30:05,840
Speaker 2: at they're one carry, So I don't think that and

678
00:30:05,920 --> 00:30:07,920
Speaker 2: the Packer's run dy that is their weakness on paper

679
00:30:08,440 --> 00:30:10,239
Speaker 2: over the last month. You throw out that Detroit game

680
00:30:10,280 --> 00:30:11,880
Speaker 2: where they didn't show up the last month and a

681
00:30:12,080 --> 00:30:13,680
Speaker 2: month and a half to run defense was a lot better.

682
00:30:13,800 --> 00:30:15,920
Speaker 2: Go back to that Vikings game and it really correlates

683
00:30:15,960 --> 00:30:18,560
Speaker 2: with they've started to use some different pieces at that

684
00:30:18,680 --> 00:30:22,040
Speaker 2: safety to play a heavy nickel linebacker but Kenny Clark

685
00:30:22,280 --> 00:30:25,160
Speaker 2: has been healthy and he's been dominant since they're by

686
00:30:25,440 --> 00:30:27,320
Speaker 2: so I think that him against Joey Hunt, he can

687
00:30:27,360 --> 00:30:28,960
Speaker 2: blow up that pocket. They're going to get pressure on

688
00:30:29,000 --> 00:30:31,080
Speaker 2: the outside. Wilson's going to be under siege. They're not

689
00:30:31,080 --> 00:30:32,520
Speaker 2: going to able to run the ball, which is how

690
00:30:32,600 --> 00:30:35,400
Speaker 2: you attack this. Packer's rundy which has been better, and

691
00:30:35,520 --> 00:30:37,680
Speaker 2: the Seahawks, by a lot of metrics, have a worse

692
00:30:37,760 --> 00:30:40,600
Speaker 2: run dy and the Packers have Aaron Jones. These team

693
00:30:40,600 --> 00:30:42,440
Speaker 2: teams have the same amount of wins. The Seahawks have

694
00:30:42,600 --> 00:30:46,440
Speaker 2: led at the half five times this year. Five that's it.

695
00:30:46,640 --> 00:30:50,400
Speaker 2: And they had eleven wins the Packers nine. So the

696
00:30:50,400 --> 00:30:52,400
Speaker 2: Seahawks team has just been playing from behind. They have

697
00:30:52,440 --> 00:30:55,800
Speaker 2: to try and come back constantly. But what you mentioned

698
00:30:55,840 --> 00:30:58,120
Speaker 2: with Rogers not throwing the ball deep, and he's been

699
00:30:58,160 --> 00:31:01,280
Speaker 2: inaccurate with deep balls, but both quarterbacks do throw it

700
00:31:01,400 --> 00:31:04,320
Speaker 2: deep as hive a percentage as any quarterback in the NFL.

701
00:31:04,360 --> 00:31:07,400
Speaker 2: They're both top three, and both defenses are bottom ten

702
00:31:07,440 --> 00:31:11,240
Speaker 2: and defending past explosiveness, Packers really aggressive, but the Seahawks,

703
00:31:11,320 --> 00:31:12,920
Speaker 2: what I will say is a lot of those numbers

704
00:31:12,960 --> 00:31:15,360
Speaker 2: with the Seahawks you know, they play a cover three match,

705
00:31:15,400 --> 00:31:17,760
Speaker 2: which means it's always base cover three, and they're going

706
00:31:17,840 --> 00:31:20,000
Speaker 2: to once the receivers get down the field, someone's going

707
00:31:20,040 --> 00:31:22,120
Speaker 2: to take them as a man and man up. Early

708
00:31:22,200 --> 00:31:24,040
Speaker 2: in the year and I shited on him all, you know,

709
00:31:24,120 --> 00:31:25,720
Speaker 2: the first six weeks of the podcast, when I was

710
00:31:25,760 --> 00:31:27,880
Speaker 2: fading the Seahawks, Tedrick Thompson was one of the worst

711
00:31:27,920 --> 00:31:30,280
Speaker 2: free safeties in the NFL. Well, now they have Quadra

712
00:31:30,360 --> 00:31:32,920
Speaker 2: Diggs back there, who's a lot better. And the goal

713
00:31:33,000 --> 00:31:36,200
Speaker 2: of the Seahawks defense is to prevent big plays and

714
00:31:36,320 --> 00:31:36,960
Speaker 2: keep everything.

715
00:31:36,760 --> 00:31:37,280
Speaker 1: In front of them.

716
00:31:37,440 --> 00:31:40,760
Speaker 2: Some of their explosive past season long metrics are because

717
00:31:40,800 --> 00:31:44,000
Speaker 2: of Thompson's just complete just shitting the bed. Early in

718
00:31:44,040 --> 00:31:46,000
Speaker 2: the season, they were give blown assignments. They were just

719
00:31:46,040 --> 00:31:48,640
Speaker 2: giving up big passing plays. So that is the only

720
00:31:48,680 --> 00:31:51,040
Speaker 2: concern that they both these quarterbacks will take deep shots.

721
00:31:51,280 --> 00:31:52,840
Speaker 1: But I agree with you. I mean, I think that

722
00:31:52,920 --> 00:31:54,680
Speaker 1: the look is probably under nothing.

723
00:31:55,080 --> 00:31:57,560
Speaker 2: I'm playing it safer with Green Bay first half minus three,

724
00:31:57,880 --> 00:32:00,400
Speaker 2: And look, if you want to if you try players

725
00:32:00,400 --> 00:32:02,840
Speaker 2: out there, we have Russell Wilson is a dog, always intriguing.

726
00:32:02,880 --> 00:32:05,280
Speaker 2: But Aaron Rodgers at home, Oh oh my god. I mean,

727
00:32:05,360 --> 00:32:09,960
Speaker 2: look against the spread statistics are absolutely insane. They'll be

728
00:32:10,040 --> 00:32:12,560
Speaker 2: in our right up on actionetwork dot com. But I mean,

729
00:32:12,600 --> 00:32:14,600
Speaker 2: I think it's like sixty three sixty four percent.

730
00:32:14,880 --> 00:32:15,360
Speaker 1: I'll put it like.

731
00:32:15,400 --> 00:32:17,960
Speaker 2: That's the only quarterback in our database since two thousand

732
00:32:17,960 --> 00:32:21,160
Speaker 2: and three that's more profitable at home is Tom Brady.

733
00:32:21,360 --> 00:32:23,760
Speaker 1: That's it. It's Tom Brady and then Aaron.

734
00:32:23,640 --> 00:32:27,560
Speaker 3: Rodgers seventy one and nineteen straight up, fifty five, thirty

735
00:32:27,600 --> 00:32:30,960
Speaker 3: two and four against the spread. So it's it's ridiculous.

736
00:32:31,320 --> 00:32:33,960
Speaker 3: And to be fair, and I actually have Wilson ranked

737
00:32:34,000 --> 00:32:36,560
Speaker 3: one spot above Rogers just because of how poorly Rodgers

738
00:32:36,600 --> 00:32:39,480
Speaker 3: has been playing down the stretch, and Wilson as an

739
00:32:39,560 --> 00:32:41,640
Speaker 3: underdog to be fair, because I always like to give

740
00:32:41,640 --> 00:32:43,280
Speaker 3: both sides of these things. I think it helps to

741
00:32:43,320 --> 00:32:44,840
Speaker 3: think about him that way. I think you always want

742
00:32:44,840 --> 00:32:46,760
Speaker 3: to kind of make the case against anything you're betting,

743
00:32:46,840 --> 00:32:48,760
Speaker 3: and then if he still feels confident in it, that's

744
00:32:48,800 --> 00:32:50,840
Speaker 3: when you bet. You know, whatever side you're You're looking

745
00:32:50,880 --> 00:32:54,320
Speaker 3: at Wilson as an underdog in his career and it

746
00:32:54,360 --> 00:32:57,760
Speaker 3: hasn't happened often, but twenty six, twelve and two against

747
00:32:57,800 --> 00:33:00,120
Speaker 3: the spread, But nineteen twenty and one straight up. So

748
00:33:00,960 --> 00:33:03,880
Speaker 3: this is a short spread that helps in terms of

749
00:33:04,040 --> 00:33:07,040
Speaker 3: kind of, you know, ignoring those numbers to some degree

750
00:33:07,080 --> 00:33:09,080
Speaker 3: with Wilson. But at the end of the day, I don't.

751
00:33:09,080 --> 00:33:12,040
Speaker 3: It's to me, it's not about trends. This Seahawks O

752
00:33:12,240 --> 00:33:15,280
Speaker 3: line is decimated, and I think the Packers are just

753
00:33:15,840 --> 00:33:17,600
Speaker 3: they just match up better in terms of they have

754
00:33:18,160 --> 00:33:21,440
Speaker 3: an edge in the run game that the Seahawks no

755
00:33:21,520 --> 00:33:21,840
Speaker 3: longer have.

756
00:33:22,280 --> 00:33:24,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, look, the last thing I'll say this Pulaga.

757
00:33:25,080 --> 00:33:27,920
Speaker 2: Their tackle was cleared from concussion protocol. He'll go, that's important.

758
00:33:27,920 --> 00:33:29,000
Speaker 2: I have two really good tackles.

759
00:33:29,040 --> 00:33:29,160
Speaker 3: Now.

760
00:33:29,320 --> 00:33:31,880
Speaker 2: The Seahawks don't really get pressure anyway. Nope, you said

761
00:33:32,120 --> 00:33:34,480
Speaker 2: Packers dink and dunk feed Jones. Well that's how you

762
00:33:34,520 --> 00:33:37,800
Speaker 2: beat the Seahawks, naked dunk passes and run the ball.

763
00:33:38,120 --> 00:33:39,000
Speaker 1: Packers can do that.

764
00:33:39,680 --> 00:33:41,560
Speaker 2: It'll be interesting to see if Jimmy Graham, who is

765
00:33:41,680 --> 00:33:43,479
Speaker 2: just a shell of himself, can have a big day

766
00:33:43,520 --> 00:33:46,520
Speaker 2: because the Seattle really struggles to defend tight ends. Maybe

767
00:33:46,640 --> 00:33:49,560
Speaker 2: Graham has a throwback game or maybe just catches a

768
00:33:49,600 --> 00:33:52,360
Speaker 2: big ball in the red zone. But he if he

769
00:33:52,440 --> 00:33:54,600
Speaker 2: can just make a couple big catches, which I don't

770
00:33:54,600 --> 00:33:57,360
Speaker 2: even know if he's capable of anymore. That's a semi

771
00:33:57,480 --> 00:34:00,160
Speaker 2: intriguing prop because it's not getting them respect in the

772
00:34:00,200 --> 00:34:01,000
Speaker 2: market these days.

773
00:34:01,200 --> 00:34:03,400
Speaker 3: Yeah, if you see Jimmy Graham catch like three passes

774
00:34:03,440 --> 00:34:05,760
Speaker 3: on the first drive, just why I bet the Packers

775
00:34:05,840 --> 00:34:08,000
Speaker 3: just do it because if they if they have Jimmy

776
00:34:08,040 --> 00:34:08,799
Speaker 3: Graham going, I.

777
00:34:08,800 --> 00:34:11,399
Speaker 2: Mean, he's been like I would, I would, I would

778
00:34:11,400 --> 00:34:13,400
Speaker 2: focus more on a touchdown prop or like just a

779
00:34:13,480 --> 00:34:14,320
Speaker 2: flyer on a first.

780
00:34:14,239 --> 00:34:16,080
Speaker 3: Oh no, no, I know, I know, I'm just saying,

781
00:34:16,200 --> 00:34:17,960
Speaker 3: just like just kind of kidding around, but you know,

782
00:34:18,200 --> 00:34:21,520
Speaker 3: I like, if he has been so bad this year,

783
00:34:21,560 --> 00:34:24,600
Speaker 3: it's it's almost if he just can't move. I actually

784
00:34:25,120 --> 00:34:28,880
Speaker 3: believe from watching them play that Robert Tanyan is their

785
00:34:28,920 --> 00:34:31,759
Speaker 3: best pass catching side. Like I with full confidence I

786
00:34:31,880 --> 00:34:35,040
Speaker 3: say that Robert Tanyan right now as it stands, is

787
00:34:35,080 --> 00:34:37,160
Speaker 3: their best pass catching say that you know he plays

788
00:34:37,239 --> 00:34:38,840
Speaker 3: maybe twenty fifteen twenty percent.

789
00:34:38,640 --> 00:34:41,160
Speaker 1: Snaps, but yeah you'll see Lewis and you know he

790
00:34:41,440 --> 00:34:42,000
Speaker 1: run blocking.

791
00:34:42,080 --> 00:34:44,560
Speaker 3: Yeah, absolutely, But yeah, who you got for your last pick?

792
00:34:44,680 --> 00:34:45,000
Speaker 1: All right?

793
00:34:45,080 --> 00:34:48,200
Speaker 2: For my last pick, I am going with the Kansas

794
00:34:48,280 --> 00:34:51,319
Speaker 2: City Chiefs first half minus four and a half.

795
00:34:51,440 --> 00:34:52,399
Speaker 1: Five, we'll call it five.

796
00:34:52,640 --> 00:34:54,560
Speaker 2: I took some four and a half out there, but

797
00:34:54,640 --> 00:34:56,680
Speaker 2: we'll call five for the contest injuries. Let me just

798
00:34:56,719 --> 00:34:59,560
Speaker 2: cross off, by the way, Wiley questionable Texans. It looks

799
00:34:59,600 --> 00:35:01,800
Speaker 2: like Fuller might go, but who knows. He's made of glass.

800
00:35:01,960 --> 00:35:04,399
Speaker 2: You never know with Will Fuller, but he obviously would

801
00:35:04,400 --> 00:35:06,200
Speaker 2: be important to the Texans. Let me just put it

802
00:35:06,239 --> 00:35:08,359
Speaker 2: this way this there are certain you know, I said

803
00:35:08,400 --> 00:35:11,920
Speaker 2: that the buye has been historically overvalued, but here you

804
00:35:11,960 --> 00:35:14,759
Speaker 2: know I don't follow trends blindly. I think the buye

805
00:35:14,880 --> 00:35:18,200
Speaker 2: is huge because you have Andy Reid, who is awesome

806
00:35:18,360 --> 00:35:18,879
Speaker 2: off of a bye.

807
00:35:18,960 --> 00:35:21,040
Speaker 1: His staff just prepares really well.

808
00:35:21,360 --> 00:35:22,880
Speaker 2: You know, if you go back in our database in

809
00:35:22,920 --> 00:35:24,880
Speaker 2: two thousand and three, here are the top three coaches

810
00:35:24,880 --> 00:35:26,160
Speaker 2: against the spread after a bye.

811
00:35:26,440 --> 00:35:27,600
Speaker 1: Two of them go this weekend.

812
00:35:27,920 --> 00:35:31,279
Speaker 2: Mike McCarthy number one, Cowboys fans ten, two and one,

813
00:35:31,600 --> 00:35:34,520
Speaker 2: John Harball number two nine and three, six and two

814
00:35:34,560 --> 00:35:36,840
Speaker 2: at home, and then Andy Reid eleven and six against

815
00:35:36,840 --> 00:35:39,480
Speaker 2: the spread after a buye six and three at home,

816
00:35:39,640 --> 00:35:42,319
Speaker 2: and he is going against Bill O'Brien. So you're giving

817
00:35:42,800 --> 00:35:44,839
Speaker 2: Andy Reid and his staff with extra time to repair

818
00:35:44,840 --> 00:35:46,799
Speaker 2: against Bill O'Brien and his staff, which we've talked about

819
00:35:46,800 --> 00:35:49,120
Speaker 2: many times we're not a huge fan of, so obviously

820
00:35:49,320 --> 00:35:52,640
Speaker 2: that's a big advantage. Look, it's a trend type podcast

821
00:35:52,680 --> 00:35:54,640
Speaker 2: for me, which I never have teams with same season

822
00:35:54,719 --> 00:35:56,759
Speaker 2: revenge in the playoffs. By the way, So he lost

823
00:35:56,800 --> 00:35:58,960
Speaker 2: in the regular season, facem again in the playoffs. Fifty

824
00:35:59,000 --> 00:36:01,279
Speaker 2: five thirty nine and five against the spread over the

825
00:36:01,320 --> 00:36:03,160
Speaker 2: past twenty years, about fifty eight and a half percent

826
00:36:03,200 --> 00:36:05,480
Speaker 2: against the spread. But look, you can say that the

827
00:36:05,560 --> 00:36:10,239
Speaker 2: Texans beat the Chiefs earlier this year in Kansas City,

828
00:36:10,280 --> 00:36:11,960
Speaker 2: but can't see the leather game seventy three. There was

829
00:36:12,000 --> 00:36:14,520
Speaker 2: two turnovers, the Texans got two late touchdowns off them,

830
00:36:14,719 --> 00:36:17,520
Speaker 2: but throw that game out. None of the important Chiefs

831
00:36:17,560 --> 00:36:20,239
Speaker 2: played and Tyreek Killy played half the snaps. He was

832
00:36:20,280 --> 00:36:22,440
Speaker 2: banged up. Mahomes was still banged up. Fisher of the

833
00:36:22,520 --> 00:36:25,520
Speaker 2: left tackle was out, Chris Jones, their best defender was out.

834
00:36:25,800 --> 00:36:28,279
Speaker 2: I mean this was in the interior defensive line. This

835
00:36:28,480 --> 00:36:31,680
Speaker 2: is a shell of the Chiefs. So I don't really

836
00:36:31,760 --> 00:36:35,160
Speaker 2: take much from that game. This Texans defense is awful.

837
00:36:35,480 --> 00:36:37,560
Speaker 2: I mean it is just bad across the board. I

838
00:36:37,640 --> 00:36:39,600
Speaker 2: think Mahomes is going to be able to pick it apart.

839
00:36:39,880 --> 00:36:41,759
Speaker 2: And you know Watt is back, but he didn't show

840
00:36:41,800 --> 00:36:44,440
Speaker 2: me that much last week. You know, Bill O'Brien and

841
00:36:44,640 --> 00:36:47,719
Speaker 2: Deshaun Watson have played two playoff games together. In those

842
00:36:47,760 --> 00:36:52,440
Speaker 2: two playoff games, they have been outscored thirty four nothing

843
00:36:52,680 --> 00:36:56,360
Speaker 2: in the first half combined thirty four nothing. So I

844
00:36:56,440 --> 00:36:59,400
Speaker 2: think the Chiefs come out, will out scheme the Texans.

845
00:36:59,440 --> 00:37:01,919
Speaker 2: Now what happened a lot of Chiefs games is they'll

846
00:37:01,960 --> 00:37:04,160
Speaker 2: go up and they'll get really conservative and they can

847
00:37:04,280 --> 00:37:06,720
Speaker 2: let teams back in the game. So would it shock

848
00:37:06,800 --> 00:37:09,840
Speaker 2: me if Watson and company have a shot late? No,

849
00:37:10,280 --> 00:37:11,839
Speaker 2: And you know if they hit a couple of big balls,

850
00:37:11,880 --> 00:37:14,520
Speaker 2: because if you look at this Chiefs defense, number one,

851
00:37:14,560 --> 00:37:17,520
Speaker 2: it's been improved mainly against the pass, and they're number

852
00:37:17,560 --> 00:37:19,600
Speaker 2: three in the NFL against deep passing. You know, but

853
00:37:20,080 --> 00:37:23,239
Speaker 2: I will say Juan Thornhill, the rookie safety, weout have

854
00:37:23,280 --> 00:37:24,960
Speaker 2: a kick in the first meeting. He's out for the

855
00:37:25,040 --> 00:37:27,279
Speaker 2: season and he's been great in coverage. Then they had

856
00:37:27,360 --> 00:37:30,000
Speaker 2: two top twenty coverage safeties with him and Honey Badger,

857
00:37:30,280 --> 00:37:32,120
Speaker 2: although both do struggle against the run. So now you're

858
00:37:32,120 --> 00:37:35,759
Speaker 2: gonna have Rmani Watts filling in sometimes Kendall Fuller when

859
00:37:35,760 --> 00:37:38,000
Speaker 2: he's on the slot. But the Texans will run a

860
00:37:38,040 --> 00:37:40,120
Speaker 2: lot of especially a fuller's playing, they'll run a lot

861
00:37:40,120 --> 00:37:42,320
Speaker 2: of three receiver sets, so you'll have Fuller in the

862
00:37:42,360 --> 00:37:45,560
Speaker 2: spot and you Wats back there. So this improved Kansas

863
00:37:45,560 --> 00:37:48,360
Speaker 2: City defense. It hasn't been giving up anything deep. Maybe

864
00:37:48,400 --> 00:37:50,959
Speaker 2: it is now without Thornhill back there, who is taking

865
00:37:50,960 --> 00:37:51,879
Speaker 2: away a lot deep.

866
00:37:52,200 --> 00:37:54,040
Speaker 3: I don't necessarily think they'll give up a lot deep.

867
00:37:54,080 --> 00:37:57,960
Speaker 3: I think it actually maybe counterintuitive if we might make

868
00:37:58,040 --> 00:38:00,960
Speaker 3: them start giving up more underneath, especially they might have

869
00:38:01,040 --> 00:38:03,000
Speaker 3: to put those coverage linebackers that they've been trying to

870
00:38:03,040 --> 00:38:04,919
Speaker 3: avoid by playing more all those safeties in the first place.

871
00:38:04,960 --> 00:38:07,640
Speaker 3: Because what they have done when Thornton went down in

872
00:38:07,719 --> 00:38:10,920
Speaker 3: that in week seventeen, they essentially went straight cover two,

873
00:38:10,960 --> 00:38:13,520
Speaker 3: which means two deep safeties, whether it's man or zone whatever,

874
00:38:14,080 --> 00:38:15,960
Speaker 3: and just have those two safeties back there. Usually it's

875
00:38:16,000 --> 00:38:18,080
Speaker 3: man coverage with two safeties over the top. That's why

876
00:38:18,120 --> 00:38:20,160
Speaker 3: they don't give up much. And then they'll mix some

877
00:38:20,239 --> 00:38:22,040
Speaker 3: split safety. And thorn Hill was the only guy that

878
00:38:22,120 --> 00:38:24,120
Speaker 3: really trusted to do that, so they might still not

879
00:38:24,200 --> 00:38:27,160
Speaker 3: give up deep plays, but the whole reason they were

880
00:38:27,200 --> 00:38:30,400
Speaker 3: playing like that was to protect their terrible covers. Linebackers

881
00:38:30,520 --> 00:38:32,799
Speaker 3: give them more of a chance underneath. So either way

882
00:38:33,000 --> 00:38:34,080
Speaker 3: it is going to be bad. But I don't know

883
00:38:34,120 --> 00:38:36,040
Speaker 3: if it's necessarily deep as much as it is just

884
00:38:36,239 --> 00:38:39,120
Speaker 3: they might protect deep and just give up a ton underneath.

885
00:38:39,560 --> 00:38:42,040
Speaker 2: It does open up the possibility of a blown assignment

886
00:38:42,680 --> 00:38:45,440
Speaker 2: for someone like a Hopkins or a fuller to get

887
00:38:45,480 --> 00:38:47,800
Speaker 2: you know, if he plays to get beat and Watson

888
00:38:47,880 --> 00:38:50,359
Speaker 2: hits him, and Watson will take his deep shots. Where

889
00:38:50,400 --> 00:38:52,600
Speaker 2: I do think the Texans can have success is running

890
00:38:52,640 --> 00:38:54,360
Speaker 2: the ball. And the first time they played, you know,

891
00:38:54,440 --> 00:38:56,640
Speaker 2: they ran the ball forty one times for one hundred

892
00:38:56,640 --> 00:38:59,120
Speaker 2: and ninety two yards. Suggs wasn't there, and he's pretty

893
00:38:59,160 --> 00:39:01,880
Speaker 2: good against the rundown's not really great rushing the passer

894
00:39:01,880 --> 00:39:02,359
Speaker 2: at his age.

895
00:39:02,400 --> 00:39:04,560
Speaker 1: But you know, Hitchins didn't play, Jones didn't play. That's big.

896
00:39:04,640 --> 00:39:07,160
Speaker 2: But so their defensive line is a little better. But look,

897
00:39:07,320 --> 00:39:09,719
Speaker 2: I mean there's a reason that the Chiefs are you know,

898
00:39:09,760 --> 00:39:11,879
Speaker 2: if you look at dvo either twenty ninth against the run,

899
00:39:11,920 --> 00:39:14,719
Speaker 2: six against the pass, their linebackers are brutal. I mean

900
00:39:14,840 --> 00:39:16,920
Speaker 2: there's ninety four linebackers with at least two hundred and

901
00:39:16,920 --> 00:39:19,279
Speaker 2: fifty snaps. Here's where their linebackers rank against the run,

902
00:39:19,360 --> 00:39:22,759
Speaker 2: sixty second, eighty third, and eighty seven. Their other edge rusher,

903
00:39:22,800 --> 00:39:24,360
Speaker 2: I could never pronounce his name to know. Is his

904
00:39:24,440 --> 00:39:26,719
Speaker 2: first name Kevin f You know, yeah, I don't know that.

905
00:39:28,200 --> 00:39:29,120
Speaker 1: Asignon, I don't know.

906
00:39:29,360 --> 00:39:31,279
Speaker 2: I always forget. I'd say it different every time. He's

907
00:39:31,360 --> 00:39:33,400
Speaker 2: ninety fourth out of ninety four edge rushers against the run.

908
00:39:33,640 --> 00:39:36,600
Speaker 2: Frank Clark, not known for his run defense. Sorenson, who's

909
00:39:36,600 --> 00:39:38,520
Speaker 2: been playing a lot more at safety, ninety third out

910
00:39:38,520 --> 00:39:41,200
Speaker 2: of ninety four safeties in run defense, comes in for Nickel,

911
00:39:41,200 --> 00:39:43,120
Speaker 2: which I think the Chiefs will probably use a lot of. So,

912
00:39:43,400 --> 00:39:45,640
Speaker 2: I mean, just across the board this run defense, and

913
00:39:45,680 --> 00:39:48,080
Speaker 2: then you know, Honey Badger has been great against the run,

914
00:39:48,239 --> 00:39:50,239
Speaker 2: Thorne was at great against the run. So I think

915
00:39:50,280 --> 00:39:52,640
Speaker 2: that they can move the ball on the ground, but

916
00:39:53,000 --> 00:39:54,640
Speaker 2: it's going to be the Chiefs are going to force

917
00:39:54,719 --> 00:39:57,120
Speaker 2: them to just move down the field efficiently, so technically

918
00:39:57,120 --> 00:39:59,239
Speaker 2: to do at times. But it's going to be the

919
00:39:59,360 --> 00:40:00,799
Speaker 2: Chiefs on the other that are going to be hitting.

920
00:40:00,880 --> 00:40:04,160
Speaker 2: So many more big plays. The Texans can't cover them.

921
00:40:04,280 --> 00:40:06,439
Speaker 2: They're not going to get pressured. The Chiefs offensive line

922
00:40:06,520 --> 00:40:09,000
Speaker 2: is healthy now, Mahomes is healthy, now all of his

923
00:40:09,120 --> 00:40:12,000
Speaker 2: weapons are healthy. There's just no one to cover these

924
00:40:12,320 --> 00:40:14,399
Speaker 2: these weapons, and they're not going to get pressure moments.

925
00:40:14,440 --> 00:40:16,520
Speaker 2: And even when they do, Mahomes can get out of it.

926
00:40:16,800 --> 00:40:19,600
Speaker 2: He's now his mobile self, his old mobile self. And

927
00:40:20,680 --> 00:40:22,839
Speaker 2: I don't see the Texans really stopping the Chiefs much,

928
00:40:23,160 --> 00:40:25,520
Speaker 2: especially early in the game, especially when the Chiefs are

929
00:40:25,560 --> 00:40:28,560
Speaker 2: coming out with prep out scheming. Bill O'Brien, I think

930
00:40:28,560 --> 00:40:29,720
Speaker 2: they jump out here early.

931
00:40:30,680 --> 00:40:33,600
Speaker 1: So I like the Chiefs first half, and.

932
00:40:33,680 --> 00:40:37,080
Speaker 3: I'm right Richard, and I do think the Texans will

933
00:40:37,160 --> 00:40:38,880
Speaker 3: have a chance late in the game. But I mean,

934
00:40:38,920 --> 00:40:42,080
Speaker 3: come on, like Deshaun Watson is sending six am texts,

935
00:40:42,320 --> 00:40:45,319
Speaker 3: let's be great to his lineman and his offense. It's like, bro,

936
00:40:45,480 --> 00:40:47,879
Speaker 3: don't don't wake me up mis six o'clock to text

937
00:40:47,920 --> 00:40:49,840
Speaker 3: me about this game. Like like that's not like that

938
00:40:49,960 --> 00:40:52,200
Speaker 3: shouldn't be how you get up for a game. Like

939
00:40:52,600 --> 00:40:55,839
Speaker 3: Bill O'Brien never has these guys ready to go when

940
00:40:55,960 --> 00:40:58,120
Speaker 3: these games starts. It makes any It makes betting on

941
00:40:58,200 --> 00:41:01,200
Speaker 3: the Texans at pretty much any point, just like a

942
00:41:01,360 --> 00:41:03,960
Speaker 3: roller coaster, and just to put some numbers behind it.

943
00:41:04,400 --> 00:41:07,520
Speaker 3: In the first half this season, Houston allowing Houston scoring

944
00:41:07,640 --> 00:41:11,240
Speaker 3: nine point five points per game, that is twenty sixth

945
00:41:11,280 --> 00:41:14,279
Speaker 3: in the league, whereas Kansas City is scoring sixteen point

946
00:41:14,320 --> 00:41:16,560
Speaker 3: seven that is third in the league. And Houston also

947
00:41:16,640 --> 00:41:19,920
Speaker 3: eighteenth in terms of allowing points in the first half

948
00:41:19,960 --> 00:41:22,959
Speaker 3: at eleven point eight in Kansas City ranks number six

949
00:41:23,360 --> 00:41:26,279
Speaker 3: only nine point six. So it is a mismatch in

950
00:41:26,320 --> 00:41:28,280
Speaker 3: the first half. I think that's the safer bet because

951
00:41:28,760 --> 00:41:30,920
Speaker 3: Deshaun Watson, I don't know how he does it, man,

952
00:41:31,040 --> 00:41:32,320
Speaker 3: but I mean I do know how he does it.

953
00:41:32,400 --> 00:41:35,440
Speaker 3: I've always been like, by the way, like this playoffs

954
00:41:35,640 --> 00:41:38,520
Speaker 3: is just one of I am so excited. I mean

955
00:41:38,560 --> 00:41:43,480
Speaker 3: we have Jimmy Garoppolo, Patrick Mahomes, and Deshaun Watson, Lamar Jackson.

956
00:41:43,719 --> 00:41:45,839
Speaker 3: I mean, that's everyone's got. I'm not going to claim Lamar.

957
00:41:46,120 --> 00:41:48,320
Speaker 3: That wouldn't be fair. I'm not gonna claim Lamar, but

958
00:41:48,520 --> 00:41:51,480
Speaker 3: I just mean from a personal brand standpoint, like I'm excited,

959
00:41:51,640 --> 00:41:54,560
Speaker 3: Like my guy Jimmy G's here, my guy Watson somehow

960
00:41:54,960 --> 00:41:57,400
Speaker 3: is here. It's a new age of quarterbacks that is

961
00:41:57,520 --> 00:41:59,960
Speaker 3: upon us. And yeah, I wouldn't count count them out,

962
00:42:00,120 --> 00:42:02,839
Speaker 3: but I do unfortunate we expect them to start.

963
00:42:02,880 --> 00:42:05,839
Speaker 2: So so I am with you there, Texans bottom three

964
00:42:05,880 --> 00:42:09,320
Speaker 2: and adjusted sakraate dead last in red zone defense in

965
00:42:09,400 --> 00:42:12,440
Speaker 2: the NFL, dead last, second, the last, and third down defense.

966
00:42:12,640 --> 00:42:14,520
Speaker 2: I mean, Chiefs are going to get in the red zone,

967
00:42:14,640 --> 00:42:16,640
Speaker 2: put up sixes, and they're going to keep drives. They're

968
00:42:16,640 --> 00:42:18,160
Speaker 2: going to keep the sticks moving, and they're going to

969
00:42:18,239 --> 00:42:20,360
Speaker 2: hit lots of explosive plays. I know a lot of

970
00:42:20,360 --> 00:42:22,680
Speaker 2: people like Kansas City Unders at home, no thanks on

971
00:42:22,760 --> 00:42:23,160
Speaker 2: this under.

972
00:42:23,480 --> 00:42:25,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, and in that then it did move up and

973
00:42:25,360 --> 00:42:27,360
Speaker 3: you know, you think it open at forty nine and

974
00:42:27,440 --> 00:42:29,880
Speaker 3: it has moved up, you know, And now you know

975
00:42:29,920 --> 00:42:32,000
Speaker 3: I'll actually since you know, we usually give it for

976
00:42:32,080 --> 00:42:34,399
Speaker 3: the games we don't talk about which will jump into

977
00:42:34,480 --> 00:42:37,200
Speaker 3: and we'll talk about the Ravens Titans, which none of

978
00:42:37,280 --> 00:42:39,359
Speaker 3: us has a pick for. But just for this one

979
00:42:39,719 --> 00:42:43,439
Speaker 3: over under is fifty one, and that opened at forty nine.

980
00:42:43,760 --> 00:42:46,160
Speaker 3: Sixty percent of the bets seventy four percent of the

981
00:42:46,200 --> 00:42:49,439
Speaker 3: money on the over. The lineups move from Chiefs eight

982
00:42:49,640 --> 00:42:52,560
Speaker 3: to Chiefs minus nine and a half fifty one percent

983
00:42:53,440 --> 00:42:57,040
Speaker 3: of the bets, fifty six percent of the money on case.

984
00:42:57,360 --> 00:42:59,879
Speaker 3: So uh yeah, I just wanted to throw that in there.

985
00:42:59,880 --> 00:43:03,359
Speaker 3: But yeah, let's go into the best of the rest,

986
00:43:03,440 --> 00:43:07,160
Speaker 3: which will be easy. Ravens Titans matchup tough teams to bet,

987
00:43:07,239 --> 00:43:09,120
Speaker 3: because so, I mean, the Ravens have just been so

988
00:43:09,239 --> 00:43:11,799
Speaker 3: good lately. I'm blown pretty much everyone out, and then

989
00:43:11,800 --> 00:43:14,680
Speaker 3: the Titans with Ryan Tannehill just continue to kind of

990
00:43:14,880 --> 00:43:19,680
Speaker 3: defy expectation. Right now, the line is Ravens by nine

991
00:43:19,680 --> 00:43:21,600
Speaker 3: and a half, fifty four percent of the bets, fifty

992
00:43:21,600 --> 00:43:24,040
Speaker 3: two percent of the money on Baltimore. Total dropped from

993
00:43:24,040 --> 00:43:25,960
Speaker 3: forty eight and a half to forty seven as we

994
00:43:26,040 --> 00:43:29,040
Speaker 3: record this Wednesday evening, sixty two percent of the bets

995
00:43:29,080 --> 00:43:31,239
Speaker 3: on the under, seventy nine percent of the money on

996
00:43:31,320 --> 00:43:34,520
Speaker 3: the under, driving that one down. Any initial thoughts on

997
00:43:34,560 --> 00:43:35,400
Speaker 3: this one stuff.

998
00:43:35,440 --> 00:43:37,880
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, try to keep it within three to four minutes.

999
00:43:38,400 --> 00:43:41,480
Speaker 2: Injury wise, Ravens are stupid healthy. Mark ingram Will, I

1000
00:43:41,600 --> 00:43:43,640
Speaker 2: think he should go. He's the only one you really

1001
00:43:43,640 --> 00:43:46,319
Speaker 2: have to worry about. Titans Dorothy Jackson. It's really an

1002
00:43:46,360 --> 00:43:49,439
Speaker 2: important injury. He's questionable. Didn't practice day in Jayon Brown,

1003
00:43:49,520 --> 00:43:51,839
Speaker 2: one of their best linebackers. He didn't practice Day two.

1004
00:43:51,920 --> 00:43:54,440
Speaker 2: Important injuries to keep your eye on potential weather to

1005
00:43:54,560 --> 00:43:56,759
Speaker 2: which I think is driving this under down. Too heavy

1006
00:43:56,840 --> 00:44:01,400
Speaker 2: run teams, and you know, Titans are really good against

1007
00:44:01,400 --> 00:44:03,439
Speaker 2: the run. And the interesting thing here from his scheme

1008
00:44:03,520 --> 00:44:06,880
Speaker 2: perspective is Dean ps the Titans defensive coordinator, used to

1009
00:44:06,960 --> 00:44:09,160
Speaker 2: be the Ravens defensive coordinator, went to the Super Bowl

1010
00:44:09,719 --> 00:44:12,360
Speaker 2: and Greg Roman, the Ravens offensive coordinator, used to be

1011
00:44:12,360 --> 00:44:14,480
Speaker 2: the forty nine Ers offensive coordinator when they faced each

1012
00:44:14,480 --> 00:44:16,319
Speaker 2: other in the Super Bowl when it was Kaepernick versus

1013
00:44:16,400 --> 00:44:18,400
Speaker 2: the Ravens and forty nine Ers had a ton of

1014
00:44:18,440 --> 00:44:21,920
Speaker 2: success offensively that game. But Peas has seen this, you know,

1015
00:44:22,520 --> 00:44:25,440
Speaker 2: some similar type of offense with the mobile quarterback, and

1016
00:44:25,440 --> 00:44:27,520
Speaker 2: the Titans have done well against mobile quarterbacks this year.

1017
00:44:28,160 --> 00:44:30,520
Speaker 2: You know, held Josh Allen down and help Deshaun Watson. Obviously,

1018
00:44:30,640 --> 00:44:34,839
Speaker 2: Lamar Jackson is in a different stratosphere as a Ravens fan.

1019
00:44:34,880 --> 00:44:36,080
Speaker 2: One of the things that I was happy to see

1020
00:44:36,120 --> 00:44:38,480
Speaker 2: with facing the Titans is that the Titans haven't played

1021
00:44:38,560 --> 00:44:41,320
Speaker 2: us before, and all these AFC teams achieves the Texans,

1022
00:44:41,600 --> 00:44:44,120
Speaker 2: you know, the Patriots, they've all played. The Ravens are

1023
00:44:44,160 --> 00:44:46,000
Speaker 2: in the here, so you have that advantage of seeing

1024
00:44:46,040 --> 00:44:48,080
Speaker 2: the Ravens once before. The Titans don't have that. So

1025
00:44:48,160 --> 00:44:50,239
Speaker 2: what happens when you play the Ravens You don't play

1026
00:44:50,239 --> 00:44:52,400
Speaker 2: an offense like this, You're not used to Lamar Jackson's speed,

1027
00:44:52,680 --> 00:44:54,160
Speaker 2: and they hit you in the mouth and then they

1028
00:44:54,239 --> 00:44:55,839
Speaker 2: go up, they get a lead, and then you can't

1029
00:44:55,880 --> 00:44:57,680
Speaker 2: run the ball. Teams only run the ball twenty one

1030
00:44:57,719 --> 00:45:00,239
Speaker 2: times per game against the Ravens on average, far the

1031
00:45:00,280 --> 00:45:01,000
Speaker 2: fewest the NFL.

1032
00:45:01,400 --> 00:45:03,359
Speaker 1: You can't run the ball, you're forced to pass. You're

1033
00:45:03,360 --> 00:45:04,160
Speaker 1: playing from behind.

1034
00:45:04,400 --> 00:45:06,160
Speaker 2: Then they blitz you, and they blitz fifty five percent

1035
00:45:06,239 --> 00:45:07,840
Speaker 2: of the time, and they can man you up on

1036
00:45:07,880 --> 00:45:10,520
Speaker 2: the outside and get after the quarterback, make you one dimensional.

1037
00:45:10,560 --> 00:45:12,120
Speaker 2: On the other side, they just keep running the ball

1038
00:45:12,320 --> 00:45:14,279
Speaker 2: and then controlling the clock, and then it just gets

1039
00:45:14,320 --> 00:45:16,480
Speaker 2: worse and more and worse, and your defense is exhausted

1040
00:45:16,520 --> 00:45:18,160
Speaker 2: and then it's over snowball effect.

1041
00:45:18,400 --> 00:45:20,239
Speaker 1: So can you stay in it early? Is the question?

1042
00:45:20,360 --> 00:45:23,000
Speaker 2: And that's probably what we'll determine this over under, or

1043
00:45:23,040 --> 00:45:26,800
Speaker 2: to determine who covers the game. And I don't necessarily

1044
00:45:27,280 --> 00:45:28,520
Speaker 2: know if I know the answer, I mean, I would

1045
00:45:28,520 --> 00:45:30,520
Speaker 2: side with the Ravens from everything that I've seen so far,

1046
00:45:31,920 --> 00:45:33,759
Speaker 2: but the Titans will be good against the groun And

1047
00:45:33,960 --> 00:45:36,440
Speaker 2: like I said, PE's has seen this. They do have

1048
00:45:36,600 --> 00:45:39,440
Speaker 2: some some bulk up front, they do have some fast linebackers.

1049
00:45:39,480 --> 00:45:41,680
Speaker 2: But it's just this is a unique scheme and they

1050
00:45:41,719 --> 00:45:44,160
Speaker 2: haven't seen it and no one's really stopped it yet

1051
00:45:44,200 --> 00:45:46,839
Speaker 2: this year. Ravens are eighteen and three, by the way,

1052
00:45:47,239 --> 00:45:51,280
Speaker 2: with Lamar Jackson as a starter, So you know, it's

1053
00:45:51,320 --> 00:45:53,160
Speaker 2: gonna come down to can the Titans slow down the

1054
00:45:53,320 --> 00:45:55,600
Speaker 2: Ravens early, you know? And I think the Ravens can

1055
00:45:55,680 --> 00:45:58,600
Speaker 2: hit some their tight ends. The Titans do struggle. Any

1056
00:45:58,600 --> 00:46:00,799
Speaker 2: of the car doesn't really cover well, so I think

1057
00:46:00,840 --> 00:46:02,160
Speaker 2: the tight ends are going to be a problem for

1058
00:46:02,200 --> 00:46:04,520
Speaker 2: the Titans as well. And the other side of the ball,

1059
00:46:04,719 --> 00:46:06,320
Speaker 2: and I think this line's about the spot on I

1060
00:46:06,360 --> 00:46:08,359
Speaker 2: make it right around ten, you know. And obviously huge

1061
00:46:08,400 --> 00:46:11,879
Speaker 2: home field, huge kicker advantage Tucker in that stadium versus

1062
00:46:11,960 --> 00:46:13,520
Speaker 2: a guy who's yet to kick a field goal this

1063
00:46:13,600 --> 00:46:17,640
Speaker 2: season for the Titans or any team, which is amazing.

1064
00:46:18,600 --> 00:46:20,960
Speaker 2: And the Titans, look, they've been awesome in the red zone,

1065
00:46:21,000 --> 00:46:22,560
Speaker 2: but some of the Ravens. These are two best red

1066
00:46:22,640 --> 00:46:25,359
Speaker 2: zone offenses in the NFL. But Ravens are really good

1067
00:46:25,400 --> 00:46:27,359
Speaker 2: RedZone defense. Titans are not, so I think the Ravens

1068
00:46:27,440 --> 00:46:29,759
Speaker 2: have an advantage there and then if you get down

1069
00:46:29,800 --> 00:46:31,840
Speaker 2: to it on the other side of the ball with Tannehill,

1070
00:46:32,320 --> 00:46:35,600
Speaker 2: he's an amazing year, absolutely amazing year. His numbers with

1071
00:46:35,640 --> 00:46:37,239
Speaker 2: play action and this is a play action Bowl. These

1072
00:46:37,280 --> 00:46:39,840
Speaker 2: are two of the top play action offenses in the NFL.

1073
00:46:40,239 --> 00:46:40,960
Speaker 1: Stupid good, you know.

1074
00:46:41,200 --> 00:46:44,600
Speaker 2: And Tannehill's completion percentage almost ten percent higher, almost six

1075
00:46:44,719 --> 00:46:48,480
Speaker 2: yards per tempt higher with play action, almost fourteen yards

1076
00:46:48,480 --> 00:46:50,839
Speaker 2: per attempt league high one hundred and forty three point

1077
00:46:50,840 --> 00:46:53,680
Speaker 2: three quarterback rating using play action. So I mean this

1078
00:46:53,760 --> 00:46:55,560
Speaker 2: guy is the guy led the NFL pass the ratings,

1079
00:46:55,600 --> 00:46:57,200
Speaker 2: only one of three quarterbacks in the NFL history to

1080
00:46:57,239 --> 00:46:59,160
Speaker 2: complete at least seventy percent of his passes with nine

1081
00:46:59,200 --> 00:47:02,160
Speaker 2: plus yards per ten eempt. However, he did face a

1082
00:47:02,239 --> 00:47:05,239
Speaker 2: sink defense ranking the top ten and pass defense efficiency

1083
00:47:05,880 --> 00:47:07,480
Speaker 2: not one during the regular season. The first one he

1084
00:47:07,520 --> 00:47:08,799
Speaker 2: did was New England this week and he went eight

1085
00:47:08,800 --> 00:47:12,480
Speaker 2: to fifteen for seventy two yards. So you know, he

1086
00:47:12,600 --> 00:47:14,759
Speaker 2: did have the highest drop rate of dropbacks holding the

1087
00:47:14,800 --> 00:47:16,480
Speaker 2: ball for two and a half seconds or more about

1088
00:47:16,520 --> 00:47:18,719
Speaker 2: sixty four percent. As part of that is to play action,

1089
00:47:19,000 --> 00:47:21,120
Speaker 2: but he did lead the league in quarterback rating in

1090
00:47:21,160 --> 00:47:24,560
Speaker 2: those situations. But again he has been playing elite secondaries,

1091
00:47:24,560 --> 00:47:26,799
Speaker 2: which the Ravens have, and because of that play action,

1092
00:47:26,920 --> 00:47:29,319
Speaker 2: because he holds the ball sometimes a little long, He's

1093
00:47:29,360 --> 00:47:32,200
Speaker 2: been sacked on a league high thirty one percent of dropbacks,

1094
00:47:32,800 --> 00:47:34,640
Speaker 2: so that's a lot. And the Titans offensive line number

1095
00:47:34,680 --> 00:47:36,759
Speaker 2: thirty two in the league and adjusted sack rate, well,

1096
00:47:36,800 --> 00:47:37,080
Speaker 2: that's not.

1097
00:47:37,120 --> 00:47:38,439
Speaker 1: Great against the Ravens.

1098
00:47:38,480 --> 00:47:40,319
Speaker 2: Defen the blitz is on fifty five percent of down

1099
00:47:40,360 --> 00:47:42,520
Speaker 2: so they should get to him a bunch wouldn't be surprised.

1100
00:47:42,600 --> 00:47:46,040
Speaker 2: They forced a fumble, force a bad throw, a bad pick,

1101
00:47:46,120 --> 00:47:47,960
Speaker 2: so you know it's And on the other side, the

1102
00:47:48,040 --> 00:47:50,440
Speaker 2: Ravens are number one pass blocking efficiency unit at allowed

1103
00:47:50,440 --> 00:47:53,160
Speaker 2: of league low seventy seven, pressures seventy seven, the next

1104
00:47:53,200 --> 00:47:54,759
Speaker 2: lowest to the Chiefs at one hundred and eleven, and

1105
00:47:54,880 --> 00:47:57,200
Speaker 2: both are tackles are top ten and pass blocking grade of.

1106
00:47:57,239 --> 00:47:59,960
Speaker 1: PFF and Stanley they're all pro is number one.

1107
00:48:00,200 --> 00:48:01,560
Speaker 2: The Raves are gonna get a ton of pressure, so

1108
00:48:01,640 --> 00:48:04,239
Speaker 2: what this comes down to and their corners can match

1109
00:48:04,320 --> 00:48:06,279
Speaker 2: up on the outside. I don't think there's any issues there.

1110
00:48:06,280 --> 00:48:08,359
Speaker 2: They could just man them up. What this comes down

1111
00:48:08,400 --> 00:48:10,719
Speaker 2: to is the Ravens run defense against Henry and how

1112
00:48:10,800 --> 00:48:11,800
Speaker 2: good of a day can Henry have.

1113
00:48:11,920 --> 00:48:12,399
Speaker 1: He's on fire.

1114
00:48:12,400 --> 00:48:14,520
Speaker 2: He's close to four hundred yards the past two weeks.

1115
00:48:14,800 --> 00:48:17,200
Speaker 2: The Ravens run d Some of the season long metrics

1116
00:48:17,920 --> 00:48:21,200
Speaker 2: don't look great, but dig a little deeper. The Ravens

1117
00:48:21,920 --> 00:48:24,759
Speaker 2: run defense when healthy on the defensive line, which means

1118
00:48:24,840 --> 00:48:28,239
Speaker 2: Brandon Williams, Pierce and Peco who they signed, all play.

1119
00:48:28,560 --> 00:48:32,320
Speaker 2: They've allowed four point h four point zero yards per carry.

1120
00:48:32,520 --> 00:48:32,920
Speaker 1: That's set.

1121
00:48:32,960 --> 00:48:35,800
Speaker 2: That would be seventh in the NFL without them, twenty seventh.

1122
00:48:35,960 --> 00:48:38,440
Speaker 2: Look no further than the Browns game Chubb. First time

1123
00:48:38,480 --> 00:48:41,520
Speaker 2: they met, they didn't have Peco. Then Williams sad al

1124
00:48:41,640 --> 00:48:43,520
Speaker 2: he was hurt. The Browns ran wild, I think for

1125
00:48:43,560 --> 00:48:46,120
Speaker 2: two hundred yards. Second meeting, they ran like twenty times

1126
00:48:46,160 --> 00:48:49,280
Speaker 2: for forty yards. They've also made some personnel moves at linebacker.

1127
00:48:49,520 --> 00:48:52,160
Speaker 2: They've used a lot less of a lasso and they've

1128
00:48:52,239 --> 00:48:54,040
Speaker 2: used more of Josh Binds. And you know they signed

1129
00:48:54,080 --> 00:48:56,840
Speaker 2: Josh Bines and nol J FOD. They're using different personnel

1130
00:48:57,520 --> 00:49:00,600
Speaker 2: safeties and they've just improved their run defense a ton.

1131
00:49:00,880 --> 00:49:02,480
Speaker 2: The other thing to note is Henry is doing a

1132
00:49:02,520 --> 00:49:05,400
Speaker 2: lot of his damage on outside zone toss plays. He's

1133
00:49:05,440 --> 00:49:07,040
Speaker 2: averaging like six and a half yards per carry on

1134
00:49:07,120 --> 00:49:09,920
Speaker 2: this place. Raven's defense only allows three point four, one

1135
00:49:09,920 --> 00:49:11,960
Speaker 2: of the best in the NFL. They're really fast on

1136
00:49:12,040 --> 00:49:14,720
Speaker 2: the edges, so they're gonna blitz, They're gonna get the tannahell,

1137
00:49:14,800 --> 00:49:16,759
Speaker 2: they're gonna get a ton of pressure in the backfield.

1138
00:49:17,040 --> 00:49:19,040
Speaker 2: Their run defense has been a lot better because of

1139
00:49:19,280 --> 00:49:22,160
Speaker 2: Pecko and Williams and Pierce that that force in the middle.

1140
00:49:22,400 --> 00:49:25,880
Speaker 2: The question is with Henry Kenny get to the second

1141
00:49:26,040 --> 00:49:29,000
Speaker 2: level because the Ravens are blitzing, this is where the

1142
00:49:29,040 --> 00:49:31,160
Speaker 2: weakness would be Kenny breakthrough, and if he does, he's

1143
00:49:31,160 --> 00:49:33,880
Speaker 2: going to go for eighty Because you have Marcus Peters

1144
00:49:34,280 --> 00:49:35,520
Speaker 2: who wouldn't want to.

1145
00:49:35,520 --> 00:49:38,440
Speaker 1: Tackle my girlfriend running the ball my wife.

1146
00:49:38,520 --> 00:49:39,000
Speaker 3: I guess.

1147
00:49:41,040 --> 00:49:44,840
Speaker 1: You, Earl Thomas doesn't want to tackle anymore.

1148
00:49:45,160 --> 00:49:46,759
Speaker 2: So you know you saw that with the forty nine

1149
00:49:46,800 --> 00:49:49,560
Speaker 2: erspis when they got outside edge, Marcus Peters miss the

1150
00:49:49,560 --> 00:49:51,960
Speaker 2: tackle or Thomas mister tackle. So Ken Henry break through.

1151
00:49:52,120 --> 00:49:53,680
Speaker 2: But I think the Ravens run defense is a lot

1152
00:49:53,760 --> 00:49:56,440
Speaker 2: better than most people are giving a credit for. It's

1153
00:49:56,480 --> 00:49:58,399
Speaker 2: all the personnel moves they made. It's a healthy Piers,

1154
00:49:58,400 --> 00:50:01,600
Speaker 2: it's a healthy Williams. They're great gets, those toss outside

1155
00:50:01,680 --> 00:50:04,600
Speaker 2: zone plays and look, one of the things that Titans

1156
00:50:04,640 --> 00:50:06,680
Speaker 2: have done so well number one score in the red

1157
00:50:06,760 --> 00:50:10,000
Speaker 2: zone play action passing. But look, they haven't played great defenses.

1158
00:50:10,000 --> 00:50:12,719
Speaker 2: They haven't played great pass defenses, that outside zone run,

1159
00:50:13,000 --> 00:50:15,560
Speaker 2: all those things that Ravens can neutralize. But more than that,

1160
00:50:15,880 --> 00:50:19,319
Speaker 2: the Titans are just wearing teams down with Henry their

1161
00:50:19,400 --> 00:50:22,480
Speaker 2: second half. They're just blowing up because these defenses are

1162
00:50:22,520 --> 00:50:25,000
Speaker 2: tired of tackling Henry and the Titans of the ball,

1163
00:50:25,080 --> 00:50:27,919
Speaker 2: And well, guess what, the Ravens control the ball better

1164
00:50:27,960 --> 00:50:29,919
Speaker 2: than any team in the NFL. That's not going to happen.

1165
00:50:30,120 --> 00:50:31,719
Speaker 2: The rains Zens is not going to get tired here.

1166
00:50:31,760 --> 00:50:34,680
Speaker 2: The Ravens are as much of a ball control offense

1167
00:50:34,680 --> 00:50:36,839
Speaker 2: as any team in the NFL. So there's a lot

1168
00:50:36,880 --> 00:50:39,839
Speaker 2: of things working against the Titans here. Again, huge field

1169
00:50:39,840 --> 00:50:41,920
Speaker 2: goal advantage for Ravens. Two excellent punters, which could help

1170
00:50:41,920 --> 00:50:44,200
Speaker 2: the under as well, that's my patement at rant.

1171
00:50:44,440 --> 00:50:46,960
Speaker 3: The Titans have just kind of defied everything to the

1172
00:50:47,000 --> 00:50:48,920
Speaker 3: point where it's tough to feel confident about a bet.

1173
00:50:48,960 --> 00:50:51,160
Speaker 3: But I would lean Ravens and the under, and you

1174
00:50:51,239 --> 00:50:53,680
Speaker 3: know it's not just like all of those points and

1175
00:50:54,280 --> 00:50:57,120
Speaker 3: the Ravens all of like they're weighted past DVOA, which

1176
00:50:57,120 --> 00:51:00,919
Speaker 3: again it waits the most more recent games. Marcus Peter

1177
00:51:01,040 --> 00:51:03,320
Speaker 3: is gonna be factored in more. They're number one in

1178
00:51:03,600 --> 00:51:06,560
Speaker 3: waded past DVOA. They're number one in schedule adressed efficiency

1179
00:51:06,560 --> 00:51:07,200
Speaker 3: against the past.

1180
00:51:07,360 --> 00:51:09,680
Speaker 1: Well, Jimmy Smith too for the first five weeks.

1181
00:51:09,440 --> 00:51:11,840
Speaker 3: So right, and the Patriots are number three. So you know,

1182
00:51:12,880 --> 00:51:15,399
Speaker 3: like now you're you're putting tannel in a situation where

1183
00:51:15,640 --> 00:51:17,360
Speaker 3: you mentioned it. You know they're gonna they're going to

1184
00:51:17,400 --> 00:51:19,759
Speaker 3: get They're gonna blitz and and kind of sacks are

1185
00:51:19,800 --> 00:51:23,960
Speaker 3: our possibility. He's also number eight of the eight quarterbacks

1186
00:51:24,320 --> 00:51:28,120
Speaker 3: in the playoffs in terms of negative plays, which are sacks, interceptions,

1187
00:51:28,200 --> 00:51:31,360
Speaker 3: and fumbles. Twelve point four percent of his plays negative plays.

1188
00:51:31,400 --> 00:51:33,600
Speaker 3: So uh, and then he's six and third Downray only

1189
00:51:33,640 --> 00:51:35,800
Speaker 3: better than Rogers and Wilson among these eight quarterbacks. So

1190
00:51:36,440 --> 00:51:39,000
Speaker 3: if the game is on Tanneho. Yeah, it's gonna be tough,

1191
00:51:39,080 --> 00:51:41,640
Speaker 3: and seeing how the Ravens have played this year, you

1192
00:51:41,719 --> 00:51:44,560
Speaker 3: know that's generally like this is a tougher matchup. This

1193
00:51:44,680 --> 00:51:46,879
Speaker 3: is a tough matchup for the Titans. And I think

1194
00:51:46,960 --> 00:51:49,080
Speaker 3: the fact that the Ravens have tight ends, something the

1195
00:51:49,120 --> 00:51:51,839
Speaker 3: Patriots don't have, does stress their defense a little more.

1196
00:51:52,239 --> 00:51:54,480
Speaker 1: And yeah, ra Shan Evans struggles in coverage too.

1197
00:51:54,520 --> 00:51:57,080
Speaker 2: They might not have Jayon Brown their linebackers, so it's

1198
00:51:57,120 --> 00:52:00,280
Speaker 2: not it's just not great. I think the Titans offensives

1199
00:52:00,280 --> 00:52:02,640
Speaker 2: are just a little inflated based on who they played,

1200
00:52:03,000 --> 00:52:05,680
Speaker 2: So I think Tannehill makes more mistakes here in which

1201
00:52:05,719 --> 00:52:07,879
Speaker 2: should be a raucous environment. This is a much better

1202
00:52:07,960 --> 00:52:09,960
Speaker 2: offense than the Patriots, a much better run defense than

1203
00:52:10,000 --> 00:52:12,160
Speaker 2: the Patriots, a much better quarterback than the Patriots.

1204
00:52:12,200 --> 00:52:13,279
Speaker 1: I mean, you name it.

1205
00:52:13,280 --> 00:52:15,080
Speaker 2: It's I mean, it's not even closed. So I mean

1206
00:52:15,160 --> 00:52:16,920
Speaker 2: Tannehill passed that test last week, but he didn't. He

1207
00:52:16,920 --> 00:52:18,680
Speaker 2: didn't do anything, So he's going to have to pass

1208
00:52:18,800 --> 00:52:20,600
Speaker 2: a test this week. I don't think he's ready to

1209
00:52:20,680 --> 00:52:20,840
Speaker 2: do it.

1210
00:52:21,120 --> 00:52:22,839
Speaker 3: And now it was time for our coaches pep talk,

1211
00:52:23,160 --> 00:52:27,760
Speaker 3: and this week's pep talk is courtesy of Omar Little

1212
00:52:27,960 --> 00:52:28,560
Speaker 3: of the Wire.

1213
00:52:29,800 --> 00:52:33,560
Speaker 4: I don't even want this, why not? It ain't what

1214
00:52:33,680 --> 00:52:35,080
Speaker 4: you take and it's who you've taken it from. You

1215
00:52:35,160 --> 00:52:37,680
Speaker 4: feel me, how do you expect the one with the

1216
00:52:37,719 --> 00:52:40,000
Speaker 4: wolves come night? Let me spend all day's spot with the.

1217
00:52:40,000 --> 00:52:42,600
Speaker 3: Puppies, and we're gonna go ahead and dedicate that one

1218
00:52:42,760 --> 00:52:45,960
Speaker 3: to the Tennessee Titans, because number one, we're talking be

1219
00:52:46,080 --> 00:52:48,120
Speaker 3: more here with the wire, and number two, I think

1220
00:52:48,120 --> 00:52:52,560
Speaker 3: if anyone has it, the Ravens got it. So Ryan Tannehill,

1221
00:52:52,760 --> 00:52:54,600
Speaker 3: see if you can do your thing again. And I'll

1222
00:52:54,640 --> 00:52:58,000
Speaker 3: close this game by saying reminding people out there that

1223
00:52:58,440 --> 00:53:01,759
Speaker 3: we are once again running our Fade Revel promotion with

1224
00:53:01,880 --> 00:53:05,440
Speaker 3: our friends at points bet sportsbook. This week, our colleague

1225
00:53:05,480 --> 00:53:10,960
Speaker 3: Darren Ravel taking under point five rushing touchdowns for Lamar Jackson.

1226
00:53:11,200 --> 00:53:14,240
Speaker 3: So if you think Lamar Jackson will score a rushing

1227
00:53:14,280 --> 00:53:17,680
Speaker 3: touchdown and you do want to fade, Darren Ravel, points

1228
00:53:17,719 --> 00:53:21,120
Speaker 3: Bet has boosted the odds on over zero point five

1229
00:53:21,239 --> 00:53:25,680
Speaker 3: touchdowns from plus one ten to plus one fifty, their

1230
00:53:25,760 --> 00:53:29,919
Speaker 3: biggest odds boost so far. Personally, I think Lamar shows

1231
00:53:29,960 --> 00:53:32,360
Speaker 3: up and probably gets in the end zone in this

1232
00:53:32,600 --> 00:53:36,200
Speaker 3: game and If you're interested in Fading Revel, just follow

1233
00:53:36,280 --> 00:53:40,440
Speaker 3: the link in this episode description for more details. All right,

1234
00:53:40,480 --> 00:53:45,080
Speaker 3: now let's get into our underdog money line parlay. All right,

1235
00:53:45,160 --> 00:53:48,279
Speaker 3: so you know we can be pretty quick here. I'll

1236
00:53:48,320 --> 00:53:50,680
Speaker 3: go with the Houston Texans. I totally agree. I think

1237
00:53:50,680 --> 00:53:52,759
Speaker 3: the Chiefs are a better bet first half. I think

1238
00:53:52,840 --> 00:53:54,960
Speaker 3: that they could end up getting conservative weight, and I

1239
00:53:55,000 --> 00:53:58,360
Speaker 3: think the Texans might start figuring things out without Thornhill

1240
00:53:58,400 --> 00:54:00,320
Speaker 3: back there for the Chiefs and might stress them in

1241
00:54:00,440 --> 00:54:04,280
Speaker 3: ways that they just can't account for with the Texans

1242
00:54:04,320 --> 00:54:06,680
Speaker 3: and all these weapons at Fuller's Healthy. So going with

1243
00:54:06,760 --> 00:54:08,279
Speaker 3: the Texans as my money line.

1244
00:54:08,560 --> 00:54:10,200
Speaker 1: You're I'm gonna mention we hit a twelve to one

1245
00:54:10,280 --> 00:54:11,000
Speaker 1: money line parlay.

1246
00:54:11,080 --> 00:54:14,000
Speaker 3: Lest whoo, Okay, well I didn't realize what I wanted

1247
00:54:14,080 --> 00:54:17,080
Speaker 3: you at the Vikings, so we nailed the two upsets.

1248
00:54:17,200 --> 00:54:19,040
Speaker 3: Like now you're going, we don't agree on this other

1249
00:54:19,080 --> 00:54:20,120
Speaker 3: one because I know you're gonna pick.

1250
00:54:20,160 --> 00:54:22,600
Speaker 2: But yeah, well, I'm going with the Vikings, and I

1251
00:54:22,640 --> 00:54:24,920
Speaker 2: already gave a lot of my reasonings and I'll just

1252
00:54:25,040 --> 00:54:28,840
Speaker 2: say I'll just end it with a story. Nineteen eighty seven,

1253
00:54:29,040 --> 00:54:31,839
Speaker 2: the Vikings went to the Superdome in the wildcard round

1254
00:54:32,040 --> 00:54:35,280
Speaker 2: and beat the Saints. The next week against the thirteen

1255
00:54:35,360 --> 00:54:38,520
Speaker 2: win forty nine Ers quarterback Wade Wilson as more than

1256
00:54:38,520 --> 00:54:42,520
Speaker 2: a touchdown underdog went to sant Fran and beat Joe Montana,

1257
00:54:42,840 --> 00:54:46,040
Speaker 2: who was benched for Steve Young, and the Vikings went

1258
00:54:46,120 --> 00:54:49,240
Speaker 2: to sant Fran and won it. Repeat of nineteen eighty seven.

1259
00:54:49,520 --> 00:54:52,880
Speaker 2: The Vikings go out there and Jimmy g a loss

1260
00:54:53,000 --> 00:54:54,800
Speaker 2: in his first playoff start school.

1261
00:54:56,440 --> 00:54:58,560
Speaker 3: I mean, you just compared Jimmy G to Joe Montana

1262
00:54:58,640 --> 00:55:02,359
Speaker 3: though I don't even need That's all I'm gonna say

1263
00:55:02,360 --> 00:55:03,040
Speaker 3: about that one.

1264
00:55:03,640 --> 00:55:05,279
Speaker 1: By the way, goes look up that game. There's like

1265
00:55:05,480 --> 00:55:08,000
Speaker 1: nineteen Hall of famers on that forty nine er. Seen

1266
00:55:08,040 --> 00:55:09,400
Speaker 1: the loss. It's one of the biggest upsets in.

1267
00:55:10,760 --> 00:55:13,000
Speaker 3: And that does it. For another episode of the Action

1268
00:55:13,520 --> 00:55:18,160
Speaker 3: Network Podcast, be sure to follow Stucky at Stucky two

1269
00:55:18,400 --> 00:55:21,799
Speaker 3: on Twitter and me at Chris Raybon and you can

1270
00:55:21,880 --> 00:55:26,680
Speaker 3: follow us by the same handles on the Action Network app, which,

1271
00:55:26,760 --> 00:55:28,839
Speaker 3: as a reminder, is a free app where you can

1272
00:55:28,880 --> 00:55:32,520
Speaker 3: get live odds, box scores, in game win probabilities, and

1273
00:55:32,640 --> 00:55:35,719
Speaker 3: track every bet that you make. Keep it locked here

1274
00:55:36,040 --> 00:55:39,960
Speaker 3: on the Action Network podcast Network we will continue churning

1275
00:55:40,000 --> 00:55:42,560
Speaker 3: out college football episodes. Will be back with the Fantasy

1276
00:55:42,600 --> 00:55:46,600
Speaker 3: Flax and of course, the NFL Betting Pod for next

1277
00:55:46,800 --> 00:55:50,680
Speaker 3: week's championship games. Until next time, let's get this shwe go,

1278
00:55:50,920 --> 00:55:51,960
Speaker 3: pack up, Go Ravens.

1279
00:56:00,719 --> 00:56:01,800
Speaker 1: We're finished talking.