1 00:00:02,480 --> 00:00:10,080 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 2 00:00:10,080 --> 00:00:13,840 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 3 00:00:13,880 --> 00:00:17,400 Speaker 1: noon and five pm Eastern on Applecarklay and Android Auto 4 00:00:17,520 --> 00:00:20,639 Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you 5 00:00:20,680 --> 00:00:26,759 Speaker 1: get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:25,520 --> 00:00:28,160 Speaker 2: As we keep the beat on geopolitics and some important 7 00:00:28,160 --> 00:00:30,600 Speaker 2: developments over the Christmas holiday that you might just now 8 00:00:30,600 --> 00:00:35,400 Speaker 2: be hearing about, including US strikes against Nigeria, striking ISIS 9 00:00:35,400 --> 00:00:39,800 Speaker 2: targets in Nigeria, and now, of course this potential meeting 10 00:00:39,800 --> 00:00:42,120 Speaker 2: that sounds like well, I should say potential breakthrough. It 11 00:00:42,120 --> 00:00:44,319 Speaker 2: sounds like a real meeting. President Zelenski will be at 12 00:00:44,320 --> 00:00:46,400 Speaker 2: mar Alago on Sunday to meet with President Trump. 13 00:00:46,440 --> 00:00:48,440 Speaker 3: And we cover all of this with Laura. 14 00:00:48,240 --> 00:00:51,360 Speaker 2: Davison, Bloomberg Washington Deputy Bureau Chief, who's with us now 15 00:00:51,400 --> 00:00:54,720 Speaker 2: in our Washington bureau. Laura, let's start with Nigeria and 16 00:00:54,760 --> 00:00:57,240 Speaker 2: what was behind this. The President the administration has been 17 00:00:57,280 --> 00:01:01,400 Speaker 2: talking about attacks against Christians in Nigeria. Is there any 18 00:01:01,400 --> 00:01:03,560 Speaker 2: evidence that this has been an issue? And who did 19 00:01:03,600 --> 00:01:04,039 Speaker 2: we target? 20 00:01:04,680 --> 00:01:08,920 Speaker 4: So the targets were these Islamic state sites in Nigeria 21 00:01:08,920 --> 00:01:11,480 Speaker 4: in the northern part of the country. Trump for several 22 00:01:11,480 --> 00:01:14,240 Speaker 4: weeks and really months now, has been talking about persecution 23 00:01:14,440 --> 00:01:17,600 Speaker 4: of Christians, attacks on Christians in the country, and that 24 00:01:18,560 --> 00:01:21,680 Speaker 4: Islamic State is particularly targeting them. The Nigerian government has 25 00:01:21,720 --> 00:01:24,319 Speaker 4: pushed back strongly on the notion that Christians in particular 26 00:01:24,360 --> 00:01:27,000 Speaker 4: are being persecuted, saying this is you know that, yes, 27 00:01:27,360 --> 00:01:30,480 Speaker 4: terrorism is a problem that both Muslims and Christians are 28 00:01:30,520 --> 00:01:33,600 Speaker 4: being affected here, and the Nigerian government actually worked in 29 00:01:33,680 --> 00:01:35,760 Speaker 4: concert with the US government in these strikes and are 30 00:01:35,800 --> 00:01:38,040 Speaker 4: working for more strikes to come. As we've heard from 31 00:01:38,040 --> 00:01:40,400 Speaker 4: the Defense Secretary had said, Okay. 32 00:01:40,200 --> 00:01:43,000 Speaker 2: So isis then remains a problem for Nigeria. But the 33 00:01:43,040 --> 00:01:45,480 Speaker 2: attacks on Christians is where they draw the line is to. 34 00:01:45,760 --> 00:01:48,000 Speaker 4: Yes, yeah, so they're sort of they're united in sort 35 00:01:48,000 --> 00:01:50,240 Speaker 4: of the actions, the military actions that are being taken, 36 00:01:50,320 --> 00:01:52,320 Speaker 4: but the motivation behind them is where the US and 37 00:01:52,440 --> 00:01:55,200 Speaker 4: Nigerian Nigerians are singing from different songbooks. 38 00:01:55,320 --> 00:01:57,720 Speaker 2: Yeah, multiple strikes, the President said, we don't have a 39 00:01:57,760 --> 00:02:01,840 Speaker 2: read out on exactly what was targeted, how many aircraft 40 00:02:01,840 --> 00:02:02,720 Speaker 2: were involved, et cetera. 41 00:02:02,800 --> 00:02:03,520 Speaker 3: From the Pentagon. 42 00:02:03,560 --> 00:02:05,520 Speaker 4: Correct, we have very few details on exactly what the 43 00:02:05,560 --> 00:02:08,000 Speaker 4: sites are that you know who may have been killed, 44 00:02:08,400 --> 00:02:11,120 Speaker 4: the number of sites, and you know what weapons were used, 45 00:02:11,120 --> 00:02:13,200 Speaker 4: et cetera. So that's all very cloudy. Really, all we 46 00:02:13,240 --> 00:02:15,720 Speaker 4: have is essentially a tweet of social media posts from 47 00:02:15,720 --> 00:02:16,520 Speaker 4: the President saying this. 48 00:02:16,520 --> 00:02:17,720 Speaker 3: Happened at least something. 49 00:02:18,160 --> 00:02:19,640 Speaker 2: I don't know what we're going to hear about Ukraine 50 00:02:19,680 --> 00:02:21,560 Speaker 2: this weekend, Laura, but it's pretty important. It looks like 51 00:02:21,600 --> 00:02:24,200 Speaker 2: Vladimir Zelenski will be in Florida to sit down with 52 00:02:24,200 --> 00:02:27,000 Speaker 2: President Trump at mar A Lago. Trump has said unless 53 00:02:27,000 --> 00:02:29,440 Speaker 2: there's an agreement at hand, unless there's a deal here, 54 00:02:30,160 --> 00:02:32,080 Speaker 2: he has no reason to meet with Zelensky. 55 00:02:32,120 --> 00:02:33,800 Speaker 3: Does that mean we're on the verge of a breakthrough. 56 00:02:33,960 --> 00:02:36,560 Speaker 4: It would certainly suggest that there's some forward momentum. What 57 00:02:36,560 --> 00:02:38,799 Speaker 4: we heard from even Zelenski, you know, a couple of 58 00:02:38,840 --> 00:02:41,200 Speaker 4: days ago, was that he was not optimistic for a deal. 59 00:02:41,200 --> 00:02:43,440 Speaker 4: He said it didn't sound like the Russians wanted to negotiate, 60 00:02:43,919 --> 00:02:45,240 Speaker 4: and that there had been all of these, you know, 61 00:02:45,480 --> 00:02:48,760 Speaker 4: these talks between US officials and Ukrainian officials and US 62 00:02:48,800 --> 00:02:51,280 Speaker 4: officials and Russian officials, and just it seemed like, no, 63 00:02:51,639 --> 00:02:53,520 Speaker 4: we're at a stalemate, there was no progress being made. 64 00:02:53,840 --> 00:02:56,040 Speaker 4: Something must have changed over the past couple days, and 65 00:02:56,040 --> 00:02:59,000 Speaker 4: now Zelenski's headed to the US. So it's not clear 66 00:02:59,040 --> 00:03:02,920 Speaker 4: from the Russian side that they are really open to negotiating, 67 00:03:02,960 --> 00:03:04,840 Speaker 4: open to this deal. You know, they are still wanting 68 00:03:04,880 --> 00:03:07,480 Speaker 4: some of these land territories that you know that Ukraine 69 00:03:07,520 --> 00:03:08,160 Speaker 4: still controls. 70 00:03:08,280 --> 00:03:11,320 Speaker 2: Amazing stuff, Laura, thank you very much. Laura Davison will 71 00:03:11,400 --> 00:03:13,880 Speaker 2: likely be editing stories about that visit come the end 72 00:03:13,880 --> 00:03:15,840 Speaker 2: of the weekend, so it's something that will keep a 73 00:03:15,880 --> 00:03:17,520 Speaker 2: close eye on it. We want to add the voice 74 00:03:17,520 --> 00:03:21,160 Speaker 2: of John Herps, the former US ambassador to Ukraine and Uzbekistan, 75 00:03:21,600 --> 00:03:23,959 Speaker 2: is with us right now on Bloomberg TV and Radio. 76 00:03:24,000 --> 00:03:27,480 Speaker 2: Mister ambassador, it's great to see you. Will President Zelensky 77 00:03:27,600 --> 00:03:29,959 Speaker 2: be walking into the lions Den here in mar A 78 00:03:30,040 --> 00:03:33,720 Speaker 2: Lago or a room where he could in fact strike 79 00:03:33,760 --> 00:03:34,320 Speaker 2: a piece deal. 80 00:03:35,480 --> 00:03:41,040 Speaker 5: Joe, thanks you. It does seem there has been substantial 81 00:03:41,080 --> 00:03:45,720 Speaker 5: progress in negotiations between the United States and Ukraine, which 82 00:03:45,760 --> 00:03:48,440 Speaker 5: is not surprising because Zelenski has said yes to five 83 00:03:48,520 --> 00:03:52,000 Speaker 5: or six Trump proposals for ending in the fighting. Putin 84 00:03:52,040 --> 00:03:55,360 Speaker 5: has rejected every single one of those. What's not clear 85 00:03:55,440 --> 00:03:56,520 Speaker 5: is what the Russians are up to. 86 00:03:59,080 --> 00:04:01,840 Speaker 2: Well, that's been a big question all along. And as 87 00:04:01,840 --> 00:04:04,880 Speaker 2: Mitch McConnell has has said, not that long ago, Putin's 88 00:04:04,880 --> 00:04:09,160 Speaker 2: been playing President Trump since January. Do you see that 89 00:04:09,280 --> 00:04:12,200 Speaker 2: being the case or could he in fact be about 90 00:04:13,680 --> 00:04:16,720 Speaker 2: about to turn position on this as well. 91 00:04:17,320 --> 00:04:20,120 Speaker 5: We've seen Trump in the nine or excuse me, nearly 92 00:04:20,160 --> 00:04:22,719 Speaker 5: eleven months, actually it is over eleven months now since 93 00:04:22,720 --> 00:04:25,440 Speaker 5: he's returned to the White House take periods where he's 94 00:04:25,440 --> 00:04:28,680 Speaker 5: been very tough on Zelensky and then periods when he's 95 00:04:28,720 --> 00:04:34,159 Speaker 5: been moderately tough, only moderately tough on Putin. Well, and 96 00:04:34,839 --> 00:04:38,400 Speaker 5: since he put the sanctions on Ross Nephta Lugo Oyle, 97 00:04:38,920 --> 00:04:43,719 Speaker 5: which was what sometime in middle of October, he began 98 00:04:43,760 --> 00:04:48,120 Speaker 5: to put tressure on Zelensky and that's continued. But Zelensky, 99 00:04:48,200 --> 00:04:51,719 Speaker 5: while conceding some things, has also stood tough on others. 100 00:04:52,320 --> 00:04:54,279 Speaker 5: And what we seem to have what seems to have 101 00:04:54,320 --> 00:04:58,960 Speaker 5: happened in the last few days is Zelensky's agreement to 102 00:04:59,480 --> 00:05:04,960 Speaker 5: perhaps hand over not to the Russians but to militarize 103 00:05:05,120 --> 00:05:09,600 Speaker 5: economic zone areas in western Dunbass, which are strategically valuable, 104 00:05:09,640 --> 00:05:12,039 Speaker 5: which the Russian army has been unable to take. But 105 00:05:12,120 --> 00:05:15,080 Speaker 5: he's insisted, and this is new, and the US seems 106 00:05:15,120 --> 00:05:19,080 Speaker 5: to have agreed, then Russian must pull back equally from 107 00:05:19,120 --> 00:05:22,479 Speaker 5: the areas that hit controls in Dunbass. And what Zelenski 108 00:05:22,560 --> 00:05:24,840 Speaker 5: has insisted on, it seems that the US has agreed 109 00:05:25,279 --> 00:05:28,840 Speaker 5: that there has to be serious military forces, so we're 110 00:05:28,839 --> 00:05:32,560 Speaker 5: not talking about peacekeepers from the Global South in that 111 00:05:32,640 --> 00:05:37,520 Speaker 5: area to prevent future Russian aggression. And what Trump seems 112 00:05:37,560 --> 00:05:40,320 Speaker 5: to have conceded on too, which Lensky has long sought, 113 00:05:40,680 --> 00:05:45,360 Speaker 5: are clear guarantees sercuritic guarantees from the United States ratified 114 00:05:45,400 --> 00:05:48,880 Speaker 5: by the Senate. And now, according to what's in the media, 115 00:05:48,960 --> 00:05:51,880 Speaker 5: which we can't be certain is accurate, but if it 116 00:05:51,920 --> 00:05:55,200 Speaker 5: is accurate, it's interesting, the US side has seemed to agree. 117 00:05:55,400 --> 00:05:58,440 Speaker 5: So we've seen some serious movement by both Ukraine and 118 00:05:58,480 --> 00:06:01,400 Speaker 5: the United States in the past week or so. Again, 119 00:06:01,440 --> 00:06:04,400 Speaker 5: what we have not seen is any indication of Moscow's 120 00:06:04,440 --> 00:06:05,480 Speaker 5: willingness to compromise. 121 00:06:06,640 --> 00:06:09,320 Speaker 2: What you mentioned what could happen in the Dunboss and 122 00:06:09,360 --> 00:06:12,599 Speaker 2: I realized that could take on a couple of different forms, 123 00:06:12,680 --> 00:06:16,480 Speaker 2: is a demilitarized zone off the table at this point. 124 00:06:16,920 --> 00:06:19,560 Speaker 5: Well, it seems that the de militarized zone is very 125 00:06:19,640 --> 00:06:23,039 Speaker 5: much on the table. But the Russians had insisted and 126 00:06:23,120 --> 00:06:26,360 Speaker 5: still have not changed its position. Ukraine gives to them 127 00:06:26,640 --> 00:06:28,920 Speaker 5: territoried the Russian army has been unable to take, and 128 00:06:28,960 --> 00:06:31,599 Speaker 5: the Russians to give nothing back in return. In Dunbas. 129 00:06:32,320 --> 00:06:35,799 Speaker 5: What Celenski has insisted and apparently the United States has agreed, 130 00:06:36,320 --> 00:06:39,600 Speaker 5: is if the Ukrainian forces are moving back in western 131 00:06:39,640 --> 00:06:42,320 Speaker 5: dun Boss, the Russian forces have to move back at 132 00:06:42,360 --> 00:06:46,080 Speaker 5: least a comparable amount and to keep that as the 133 00:06:46,080 --> 00:06:50,039 Speaker 5: de militarized territory. So that's a serious concession. And again, 134 00:06:50,520 --> 00:06:53,520 Speaker 5: if the US has agreed, there have to be troops, 135 00:06:53,760 --> 00:06:58,200 Speaker 5: serious troops in that area, in that de military zone, 136 00:06:58,279 --> 00:07:02,039 Speaker 5: international troops to prevent for the Russian aggression. That would 137 00:07:02,080 --> 00:07:06,400 Speaker 5: seem to be another element of compromise from Team Trump. 138 00:07:08,839 --> 00:07:12,080 Speaker 2: All right, so you sit down at mar A Lago 139 00:07:13,440 --> 00:07:17,200 Speaker 2: and talk peace. Does that mean that Vladimir Putin also 140 00:07:17,240 --> 00:07:19,200 Speaker 2: needs to sit down with President Trump? Will they get 141 00:07:19,240 --> 00:07:21,080 Speaker 2: back to this idea of meeting in Hungary? 142 00:07:22,080 --> 00:07:24,360 Speaker 5: Well, I don't know where they'll meet, but I assume 143 00:07:24,440 --> 00:07:28,120 Speaker 5: if Zelensky and Trump are satisfied after their meeting, then 144 00:07:28,760 --> 00:07:32,000 Speaker 5: there'll be some form of reach out to the Kremlin. Now. 145 00:07:32,160 --> 00:07:37,120 Speaker 5: According to the media of Kreel Dimitriev, who's the Putin envoy, 146 00:07:38,040 --> 00:07:41,280 Speaker 5: was in Florida this past week and so he apparently 147 00:07:41,360 --> 00:07:44,000 Speaker 5: is reported back on roughly the terms that have been 148 00:07:44,040 --> 00:07:47,040 Speaker 5: reached between the US and Ukraine, and the Russian reaction 149 00:07:47,080 --> 00:07:51,000 Speaker 5: has been interesting. They haven't rejected it. They've praised Trump's 150 00:07:51,280 --> 00:07:54,640 Speaker 5: efforts to achieve peace, and they said they're willing to 151 00:07:54,680 --> 00:07:58,760 Speaker 5: continue to negotiate. But things Putin said as recently as 152 00:07:58,760 --> 00:08:02,840 Speaker 5: a week ago would not allow the sorts of ideas 153 00:08:02,880 --> 00:08:06,360 Speaker 5: that Zelensky and Trump seemed to be agreeing on to 154 00:08:06,360 --> 00:08:12,440 Speaker 5: be accepted by the Kremlin. But again we'll see. Putin 155 00:08:12,720 --> 00:08:16,640 Speaker 5: has been meticulous about trying to avoid annoying Trump, albeit 156 00:08:16,760 --> 00:08:19,920 Speaker 5: without conceding one little one a little bit. At some 157 00:08:19,960 --> 00:08:21,520 Speaker 5: point he may not be able to do the two 158 00:08:21,560 --> 00:08:22,120 Speaker 5: things together. 159 00:08:23,600 --> 00:08:26,120 Speaker 2: To what extent is President Zelenski trying to head off 160 00:08:26,160 --> 00:08:30,200 Speaker 2: the constant communication between Steve Witkoff and Moscow, whether he's 161 00:08:30,240 --> 00:08:33,280 Speaker 2: talking to Putin or his lieutenants. Is that why he 162 00:08:33,320 --> 00:08:34,959 Speaker 2: needs to get to Florida right now. 163 00:08:35,520 --> 00:08:38,880 Speaker 5: Well, I think that, you know, the plan that was 164 00:08:38,960 --> 00:08:42,280 Speaker 5: given to Zelenski by the Secretary of the Army Driscoll 165 00:08:44,040 --> 00:08:47,080 Speaker 5: in the middle of November was far too favorable to 166 00:08:47,080 --> 00:08:51,040 Speaker 5: the aggressive to putin and reflecting I think Kremlin influence 167 00:08:51,559 --> 00:08:54,880 Speaker 5: on parts of the Trump team. But that was corrected, 168 00:08:54,880 --> 00:08:57,000 Speaker 5: you know, within a few days when Rubio met with 169 00:08:57,440 --> 00:09:01,920 Speaker 5: the Ukrainians in Geneva, Rubyo and Witkoff with the Ukrainians Uneva. 170 00:09:02,360 --> 00:09:04,440 Speaker 5: And since then we've seen it back and forth of 171 00:09:04,480 --> 00:09:08,160 Speaker 5: ideas and we've seen Ukraine being willing to compromise, but 172 00:09:08,240 --> 00:09:14,000 Speaker 5: not to make fatal mistakes like simply giving Ukraine highly 173 00:09:14,000 --> 00:09:18,280 Speaker 5: strategical land in western Gunboss without security guarantees, without any 174 00:09:19,280 --> 00:09:22,600 Speaker 5: requirements from the Kremlin to actually make peace. And again 175 00:09:22,679 --> 00:09:25,120 Speaker 5: the deal that has been emerging again we only have 176 00:09:25,320 --> 00:09:28,080 Speaker 5: some of the details. We don't have enough suggest that 177 00:09:28,160 --> 00:09:31,439 Speaker 5: the United States has taken account of this. And this 178 00:09:31,520 --> 00:09:36,079 Speaker 5: reflects again Ukraine's willingness ability abilities, Lensky's ability to advocate 179 00:09:36,120 --> 00:09:39,840 Speaker 5: for their positions, and Team Trump's willingness to listen to them. 180 00:09:40,000 --> 00:09:40,760 Speaker 5: And that's a good thing. 181 00:09:43,040 --> 00:09:45,480 Speaker 2: Really fascinating. What does China make of all of this. 182 00:09:45,720 --> 00:09:48,040 Speaker 2: What is President she watching in Ukraine? 183 00:09:48,080 --> 00:09:52,480 Speaker 5: Well, she is watching intently American policy in this war. 184 00:09:52,800 --> 00:09:54,840 Speaker 5: He doesn't want Russia to lose, and by a lose, 185 00:09:54,920 --> 00:09:57,320 Speaker 5: I mean Russia not being able to take effective political 186 00:09:57,360 --> 00:10:01,120 Speaker 5: control of Ukraine, which is why she is providers significant 187 00:10:01,120 --> 00:10:03,720 Speaker 5: support to Putin. I'll be trying to avoid American red 188 00:10:03,760 --> 00:10:07,079 Speaker 5: lines like by sending on weapons systems to you to Russia. 189 00:10:08,320 --> 00:10:10,920 Speaker 5: But he wants us A to be He wants to 190 00:10:10,960 --> 00:10:14,040 Speaker 5: see America allow Putin to win in Ukraine because that 191 00:10:14,040 --> 00:10:17,199 Speaker 5: would be a sign of great weakness, which she would, 192 00:10:17,920 --> 00:10:19,880 Speaker 5: you might say, interpret as meaning he has a free 193 00:10:19,920 --> 00:10:21,360 Speaker 5: hand to go after Taiwan. 194 00:10:24,240 --> 00:10:26,920 Speaker 2: We are spending some time with former Ambassador to Ukraine 195 00:10:26,960 --> 00:10:30,280 Speaker 2: and Zbekistan, John Herbs, the head of this meeting at 196 00:10:30,320 --> 00:10:34,400 Speaker 2: mar A Lago on Sunday between President Zelenski and Donald Trump. 197 00:10:34,480 --> 00:10:36,960 Speaker 2: You know, Trump said he would end this war on 198 00:10:37,080 --> 00:10:40,160 Speaker 2: his first day, Ambassador. Is there a chance he ends 199 00:10:40,160 --> 00:10:41,040 Speaker 2: it in his first year? 200 00:10:41,960 --> 00:10:42,080 Speaker 3: No. 201 00:10:43,000 --> 00:10:46,520 Speaker 5: The only way this will end is if Putin understands 202 00:10:46,640 --> 00:10:49,840 Speaker 5: United States is determined that Trump is determined to achieve 203 00:10:49,880 --> 00:10:53,200 Speaker 5: his stated goal of a durable piece, not a piece 204 00:10:53,200 --> 00:10:55,720 Speaker 5: which enables Putin to come back from more of Ukraine 205 00:10:55,880 --> 00:10:58,680 Speaker 5: in six months or twelve months or thirty six months. 206 00:10:59,240 --> 00:11:01,400 Speaker 5: But the only way to do that is to make 207 00:11:01,440 --> 00:11:05,440 Speaker 5: it extremely painful for Putin to continue, because for Putin 208 00:11:05,480 --> 00:11:08,120 Speaker 5: to have effective political control of Ukraine, he has to 209 00:11:08,160 --> 00:11:11,680 Speaker 5: take a great deal of more of Ukrainian territory, including 210 00:11:11,760 --> 00:11:16,720 Speaker 5: Kief and Nipur and Odessa, which means a lot more fighting. 211 00:11:17,320 --> 00:11:20,120 Speaker 5: The only way that Putin understands he cannot achieve those 212 00:11:20,160 --> 00:11:23,640 Speaker 5: objectives is if Trump puts serious pressure on him in 213 00:11:24,240 --> 00:11:28,760 Speaker 5: three forms. Three forms one greater sanctions more of what 214 00:11:28,800 --> 00:11:31,920 Speaker 5: Trump did in October, meaning the sanctions on Luke Oil 215 00:11:32,000 --> 00:11:36,760 Speaker 5: and Rossneft, two major Russian oil firms, two major weapons 216 00:11:36,800 --> 00:11:39,719 Speaker 5: supplies to Ukraine. Under Trump's view, it doesn't have to 217 00:11:39,760 --> 00:11:42,520 Speaker 5: be paid for by the American taxpayer, but the Ukrainians 218 00:11:42,559 --> 00:11:46,320 Speaker 5: and the Europeans will pay for it. Three, the United 219 00:11:46,360 --> 00:11:49,800 Speaker 5: States should work with our European allies and making sure 220 00:11:49,880 --> 00:11:53,360 Speaker 5: the three hundred billion dollars roughly a frozen Russian state 221 00:11:53,400 --> 00:11:59,040 Speaker 5: assets in the international financial system go to Ukraine. One 222 00:11:59,040 --> 00:12:04,079 Speaker 5: are the bad proposals it presented to Jolensky in the 223 00:12:04,120 --> 00:12:07,960 Speaker 5: middle of November, reflecting or undo Russian influence was that 224 00:12:08,720 --> 00:12:11,280 Speaker 5: Ukraine will get one hundred billion of those assets and 225 00:12:11,320 --> 00:12:14,160 Speaker 5: the US and Russia would get the majority of those assets. 226 00:12:14,920 --> 00:12:17,480 Speaker 5: That was not a good look. That suggested the putin 227 00:12:18,000 --> 00:12:21,040 Speaker 5: that the Trump team was not going to be tough, but. 228 00:12:21,120 --> 00:12:24,520 Speaker 2: The potential of much more fighting ahead. Former Ambassador John 229 00:12:24,559 --> 00:12:26,040 Speaker 2: Hurst wee thank you for the insights. 230 00:12:27,679 --> 00:12:29,839 Speaker 3: Stay with us on Balance of Power. We'll have much 231 00:12:29,880 --> 00:12:31,079 Speaker 3: more coming up after this. 232 00:12:34,360 --> 00:12:37,840 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch 233 00:12:37,920 --> 00:12:41,360 Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on Apple, 234 00:12:41,400 --> 00:12:44,440 Speaker 1: Cockway and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You 235 00:12:44,480 --> 00:12:47,959 Speaker 1: can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship 236 00:12:48,000 --> 00:12:52,559 Speaker 1: New York station Just Say Alexa played Bloomberg eleven thirty. 237 00:12:53,400 --> 00:12:55,320 Speaker 2: I want to add the voice of Jane Harmon, the 238 00:12:55,360 --> 00:12:58,880 Speaker 2: former Democratic congresswoman who of course is ranking member on 239 00:12:58,920 --> 00:13:01,880 Speaker 2: the Intelligence Committee. Jane, Merry Christmas. It's great to have you. 240 00:13:01,960 --> 00:13:03,160 Speaker 2: Glad you could join us today. 241 00:13:03,200 --> 00:13:03,760 Speaker 3: I want to just. 242 00:13:04,040 --> 00:13:08,400 Speaker 2: Step back to this looming meeting with President Zelenski. Are 243 00:13:08,400 --> 00:13:10,160 Speaker 2: we going to see a breakthrough this week? Or is 244 00:13:10,240 --> 00:13:12,280 Speaker 2: Lucy about to pull out the football again? 245 00:13:13,800 --> 00:13:15,400 Speaker 6: Put me down as a pessimist. 246 00:13:15,480 --> 00:13:20,240 Speaker 7: Joe and a super pessimist about the meetings with Israel. 247 00:13:20,760 --> 00:13:23,800 Speaker 7: I'm a pessimist because I don't see that Putin will 248 00:13:23,800 --> 00:13:27,600 Speaker 7: be satisfied with this deal. I give Zelensky enormous credit 249 00:13:28,080 --> 00:13:30,520 Speaker 7: for working on it and for it seems to me 250 00:13:30,600 --> 00:13:34,000 Speaker 7: so far as I can tell reading his top levels 251 00:13:34,000 --> 00:13:37,120 Speaker 7: of government of corruption. I mean that was a big 252 00:13:37,160 --> 00:13:41,200 Speaker 7: blow to him. And I give the Ukrainian people even 253 00:13:41,240 --> 00:13:43,520 Speaker 7: more credit for putting up with four years of war. 254 00:13:43,640 --> 00:13:46,720 Speaker 7: They are Ukraine's strongest weapon, the Ukrainian heart. 255 00:13:47,320 --> 00:13:49,000 Speaker 6: But what does Putin get out of this? 256 00:13:50,080 --> 00:13:53,320 Speaker 7: Maybe you know, something like North Korea, South Korea with 257 00:13:53,360 --> 00:13:56,000 Speaker 7: some kind of a police border. He doesn't get much 258 00:13:56,040 --> 00:13:59,040 Speaker 7: new territory. He certainly doesn't get an open door to 259 00:13:59,080 --> 00:14:01,480 Speaker 7: take over Europe, which is something he might be after, 260 00:14:02,000 --> 00:14:07,480 Speaker 7: and I don't see it. Mitch McConnell said that Putin 261 00:14:07,520 --> 00:14:09,319 Speaker 7: has been playing Trump since January. 262 00:14:09,920 --> 00:14:11,319 Speaker 6: I agree with Mitch McConnell. 263 00:14:11,880 --> 00:14:15,360 Speaker 7: But the other point here is that Europe has now 264 00:14:15,440 --> 00:14:18,920 Speaker 7: promised some additional aid. Imagine this, The defense bill that 265 00:14:19,000 --> 00:14:23,520 Speaker 7: Congress passed. Congress did something contains hundreds of millions of 266 00:14:23,520 --> 00:14:26,360 Speaker 7: dollars of aid for Ukraine. So if Trump lets that 267 00:14:26,520 --> 00:14:30,800 Speaker 7: go forward, please let that go forward and doesn't do 268 00:14:30,960 --> 00:14:35,640 Speaker 7: any kind of stuff to our intelligence capacity that really 269 00:14:35,720 --> 00:14:39,960 Speaker 7: helps Ukraine keep its at least keep parody with Russia. 270 00:14:40,640 --> 00:14:43,120 Speaker 7: This can go on longer and maybe Russia will be 271 00:14:43,160 --> 00:14:46,040 Speaker 7: worn down more. I let me talk about the Middle 272 00:14:46,080 --> 00:14:48,600 Speaker 7: East for a minute, because I don't see anything going 273 00:14:48,640 --> 00:14:54,800 Speaker 7: on there. Bb NETANYAHUO just announced new is really housing 274 00:14:54,840 --> 00:14:57,480 Speaker 7: in the West Bank. Now that's not Gaza, but it 275 00:14:57,520 --> 00:15:01,280 Speaker 7: is enormously provocative. He has said he will not will 276 00:15:01,320 --> 00:15:04,680 Speaker 7: not recognize two states, and I thought a cornerstone of 277 00:15:04,800 --> 00:15:09,280 Speaker 7: increased involvement or ongoing involvement by the Arab neighborhood was 278 00:15:09,320 --> 00:15:11,480 Speaker 7: a pass to two states. So even if there is 279 00:15:11,480 --> 00:15:14,800 Speaker 7: some kind of a police force type thing, as your 280 00:15:14,800 --> 00:15:18,160 Speaker 7: commentator pointed out, Hamas is not gone. Hamas won't want 281 00:15:18,200 --> 00:15:21,360 Speaker 7: to be gone. And I just don't see how that 282 00:15:21,400 --> 00:15:25,600 Speaker 7: gets anywhere there. I'm a really super pessimist, all right. 283 00:15:25,640 --> 00:15:30,520 Speaker 2: So we've got two pessimistic cards here. You said that 284 00:15:30,560 --> 00:15:35,240 Speaker 2: Putin's been playing President Trump since January? Is that Yahoo 285 00:15:35,320 --> 00:15:36,720 Speaker 2: also playing President Trump? 286 00:15:37,240 --> 00:15:38,360 Speaker 6: I think so yes. 287 00:15:39,160 --> 00:15:42,760 Speaker 7: I think that Trump is tougher with him than former 288 00:15:42,800 --> 00:15:46,080 Speaker 7: President Biden was ever able to be. And Trump has 289 00:15:46,080 --> 00:15:50,240 Speaker 7: still kept his strong support from some many in the 290 00:15:50,280 --> 00:15:54,080 Speaker 7: pro Israel community. But I think that netanyahho is a 291 00:15:54,520 --> 00:16:00,240 Speaker 7: is a hard line conservative, would understated a hard line 292 00:16:01,520 --> 00:16:06,400 Speaker 7: maybe reactionary Israeli and hasn't budged here. He did get 293 00:16:06,440 --> 00:16:10,200 Speaker 7: the good news is and Trump helped with this enormously, 294 00:16:10,480 --> 00:16:13,280 Speaker 7: got the prisoners back and got the sadly the bodies 295 00:16:13,320 --> 00:16:16,240 Speaker 7: of the deceased back. That's great, But I don't see 296 00:16:16,320 --> 00:16:20,200 Speaker 7: Hamas willingly move out, and I don't see major efforts 297 00:16:20,880 --> 00:16:25,200 Speaker 7: to improve the quality of the Palestinian leadership such as 298 00:16:25,200 --> 00:16:27,800 Speaker 7: it is. So I don't see how you put money 299 00:16:27,800 --> 00:16:32,400 Speaker 7: into developing. I guess what the Trump's sun in law 300 00:16:32,480 --> 00:16:35,840 Speaker 7: wants to be some new beachfront property if there is 301 00:16:35,880 --> 00:16:39,080 Speaker 7: no stability, I just don't see that moving. And one 302 00:16:39,080 --> 00:16:42,520 Speaker 7: more thing, Joe, let's remember that also in the Middle East, 303 00:16:42,600 --> 00:16:46,560 Speaker 7: is isis isis we bombed ISIS we the US in 304 00:16:46,600 --> 00:16:51,000 Speaker 7: Syria recently, we're bombing ISIS now in Nigeria. But ISIS 305 00:16:51,080 --> 00:16:54,720 Speaker 7: is not just a training group on the ground. ISIS 306 00:16:54,800 --> 00:16:58,360 Speaker 7: is now all over the internet, radicalizing people like those 307 00:16:58,360 --> 00:17:01,960 Speaker 7: in Australia and maybe some in the United States and 308 00:17:02,000 --> 00:17:04,879 Speaker 7: Europe in the near future. So it seems to me 309 00:17:05,000 --> 00:17:07,400 Speaker 7: if I were President Trump. He hasn't called me lately, 310 00:17:07,480 --> 00:17:09,560 Speaker 7: but if he did, I always say, please. 311 00:17:09,320 --> 00:17:10,720 Speaker 6: Focus on this, mister President. 312 00:17:10,760 --> 00:17:13,680 Speaker 7: It is the most imminent threat to US security. 313 00:17:14,720 --> 00:17:16,160 Speaker 3: Well, you brought this up to us. 314 00:17:16,400 --> 00:17:19,000 Speaker 2: Maybe it was two weeks ago, Jane Harmon and sure 315 00:17:19,080 --> 00:17:23,640 Speaker 2: enough the headlines on Christmas US forces striking ices targets 316 00:17:23,640 --> 00:17:27,399 Speaker 2: in northwestern Nigeria. The President wrote on truth social and 317 00:17:27,440 --> 00:17:30,320 Speaker 2: he had a lot to say on Christmas on social media. 318 00:17:30,359 --> 00:17:33,280 Speaker 2: Merry Christmas to all, including the dead terrorists, of which 319 00:17:33,320 --> 00:17:36,520 Speaker 2: there will be many more if their slaughter of Christians continues. 320 00:17:37,080 --> 00:17:39,760 Speaker 2: There have been a lot of questions about whether this 321 00:17:39,960 --> 00:17:44,359 Speaker 2: slaughter of Christians is in fact taking place in countries 322 00:17:44,440 --> 00:17:48,160 Speaker 2: like Nigeria or even South Africa, which the President had 323 00:17:48,160 --> 00:17:49,000 Speaker 2: first brought. 324 00:17:48,720 --> 00:17:50,880 Speaker 3: Forth in a meeting in the Oval Office. 325 00:17:50,840 --> 00:17:55,840 Speaker 2: With the Prime Minister, the President of South Africa. We've 326 00:17:55,840 --> 00:17:59,320 Speaker 2: not received details on this. The military conducted multiple strikes, 327 00:17:59,320 --> 00:18:01,720 Speaker 2: according to the press, but we haven't heard anything else. Jane, 328 00:18:01,720 --> 00:18:03,120 Speaker 2: what are we getting into in Nigeria? 329 00:18:03,920 --> 00:18:05,000 Speaker 6: Well, I don't think we know. 330 00:18:05,119 --> 00:18:07,280 Speaker 7: The government has pushed back and said there is no 331 00:18:08,040 --> 00:18:10,600 Speaker 7: slaughter of Christians. I'm sure some Christians are being killed 332 00:18:10,600 --> 00:18:15,240 Speaker 7: similarly in South Africa, which is not to praise those governments, 333 00:18:15,280 --> 00:18:17,639 Speaker 7: but it is to say that this seems to be 334 00:18:17,720 --> 00:18:21,000 Speaker 7: another campaign pledge, you know, some kind of pro Christian 335 00:18:21,480 --> 00:18:25,159 Speaker 7: white supremacy agenda, although that would be. 336 00:18:25,160 --> 00:18:26,600 Speaker 6: Tricky in Africa. 337 00:18:27,480 --> 00:18:30,680 Speaker 7: Why don't we have a strategy for our foreign policy? 338 00:18:30,760 --> 00:18:33,800 Speaker 7: Why don't we focus on the real threats, the imminent 339 00:18:33,800 --> 00:18:36,000 Speaker 7: threats of the United States. We've degraded a lot of 340 00:18:36,040 --> 00:18:39,479 Speaker 7: our intelligence community assets in the United States and that 341 00:18:39,520 --> 00:18:43,679 Speaker 7: worries me enormously. And recent articles just talked about how 342 00:18:44,200 --> 00:18:48,399 Speaker 7: Russia has been able to degrade and invade the cyber 343 00:18:48,800 --> 00:18:51,600 Speaker 7: protections in Europe. So all of that leads me to 344 00:18:51,640 --> 00:18:55,040 Speaker 7: believe that people are going to be radicalized on the web. 345 00:18:55,560 --> 00:19:00,159 Speaker 7: Isis has a very sophisticated use now of technology, and 346 00:19:00,240 --> 00:19:02,119 Speaker 7: this is where we need to go, and this is 347 00:19:02,119 --> 00:19:04,800 Speaker 7: what we need to beef up. And so these random 348 00:19:04,840 --> 00:19:08,520 Speaker 7: actions around the globe. Take Venezuela, if I could just 349 00:19:08,920 --> 00:19:12,440 Speaker 7: rant on that for a second, nobody is defending Maduro, 350 00:19:12,760 --> 00:19:15,240 Speaker 7: but nobody was defending the bad guy next door in 351 00:19:15,280 --> 00:19:18,480 Speaker 7: Honduras either. He was convicted in US courts and he 352 00:19:18,560 --> 00:19:24,920 Speaker 7: has now been pardoned and the new person that Trump 353 00:19:25,040 --> 00:19:28,160 Speaker 7: supported has just been elected in Honduras. Are we now 354 00:19:28,200 --> 00:19:30,879 Speaker 7: doing regime cage in South America? 355 00:19:31,040 --> 00:19:31,320 Speaker 6: Why? 356 00:19:31,800 --> 00:19:32,520 Speaker 3: Well, let me ask you. 357 00:19:32,600 --> 00:19:35,359 Speaker 2: I've only got one minute left, Jane, and I'm loath 358 00:19:35,440 --> 00:19:38,280 Speaker 2: to cut you off. Is if we're striking targets on 359 00:19:38,320 --> 00:19:41,520 Speaker 2: the ground in Nigeria, will Venezuela be next? 360 00:19:43,320 --> 00:19:47,400 Speaker 7: Who knows? I mean, I don't know. Trump has said 361 00:19:47,440 --> 00:19:51,040 Speaker 7: he might a sad part. Let me just in my 362 00:19:51,119 --> 00:19:55,639 Speaker 7: twelve seconds, where is Congress? Where is Congress? Congress just 363 00:19:55,720 --> 00:19:59,520 Speaker 7: last week defeated two resolutions to assert itself on party 364 00:19:59,560 --> 00:20:00,000 Speaker 7: line vogte. 365 00:20:00,040 --> 00:20:00,719 Speaker 6: Let's go figure. 366 00:20:01,200 --> 00:20:04,600 Speaker 7: Why did Congress come back from its long close for 367 00:20:04,680 --> 00:20:11,879 Speaker 7: business vacation or that's not fair, but closed for business action? 368 00:20:12,200 --> 00:20:13,520 Speaker 6: Why did it come back to you do. 369 00:20:13,520 --> 00:20:14,679 Speaker 3: Your workdown in history? 370 00:20:15,200 --> 00:20:16,960 Speaker 2: Well, they've taken a couple of swings up the ball 371 00:20:17,000 --> 00:20:19,040 Speaker 2: with War Powers Acts, and they haven't gone anywhere yet. 372 00:20:19,080 --> 00:20:21,760 Speaker 3: Jane. I'm delighted to talk to you. Happy New Year. 373 00:20:22,200 --> 00:20:24,480 Speaker 2: Let's get back together in twenty twenty six and see 374 00:20:24,520 --> 00:20:25,000 Speaker 2: where we are. 375 00:20:25,280 --> 00:20:28,760 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch 376 00:20:28,840 --> 00:20:31,879 Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on 377 00:20:32,000 --> 00:20:35,240 Speaker 1: Apple Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. 378 00:20:35,280 --> 00:20:38,280 Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 379 00:20:38,320 --> 00:20:42,840 Speaker 1: flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa played Bloomberg eleven thirty. 380 00:20:44,280 --> 00:20:46,679 Speaker 2: As we look back on the year and look ahead 381 00:20:46,720 --> 00:20:48,720 Speaker 2: to the new year, we wanted to spend some time 382 00:20:48,760 --> 00:20:51,600 Speaker 2: with Eric Larson, Bloomberg's legal reporter, who we have spent 383 00:20:51,680 --> 00:20:54,720 Speaker 2: so much time with talking about the Supreme Court over 384 00:20:54,760 --> 00:20:56,840 Speaker 2: the past year, and we're still waiting for the big one, 385 00:20:56,880 --> 00:21:00,800 Speaker 2: of course, the Supreme Court's ruling on President Trump's terrorff regime. 386 00:21:00,840 --> 00:21:03,720 Speaker 2: And Eric is with us now from world headquarters in 387 00:21:03,800 --> 00:21:04,200 Speaker 2: New York. 388 00:21:04,240 --> 00:21:05,800 Speaker 3: It's great to see Eric. 389 00:21:05,840 --> 00:21:08,320 Speaker 2: We understand this could be days or weeks away, right, 390 00:21:08,359 --> 00:21:09,399 Speaker 2: this is an imminent ruling. 391 00:21:10,119 --> 00:21:10,840 Speaker 3: Yeah, that's correct. 392 00:21:10,840 --> 00:21:13,960 Speaker 8: I think some people were even expecting we might get 393 00:21:14,000 --> 00:21:17,159 Speaker 8: it before I get the decision before the holidays, but no, 394 00:21:17,280 --> 00:21:20,760 Speaker 8: we are expecting it in the next weeks, potentially very soon. 395 00:21:22,200 --> 00:21:24,880 Speaker 8: No word on exactly when that will be though, of course. 396 00:21:26,040 --> 00:21:30,200 Speaker 2: Yes, so obviously when it does, first of all, it'll 397 00:21:30,240 --> 00:21:32,639 Speaker 2: be seismic in the political world, but also when it 398 00:21:32,640 --> 00:21:35,439 Speaker 2: comes to markets. This could come down a couple of 399 00:21:35,440 --> 00:21:37,680 Speaker 2: different ways, right, Eric, there are big questions about whether 400 00:21:37,720 --> 00:21:41,000 Speaker 2: there will be refunds that are that are mandated as 401 00:21:41,080 --> 00:21:43,959 Speaker 2: part of this ruling, whether a one off or something 402 00:21:44,000 --> 00:21:45,640 Speaker 2: that could take years to repay. 403 00:21:46,240 --> 00:21:47,520 Speaker 3: How could this take shape? 404 00:21:47,840 --> 00:21:49,960 Speaker 8: Yeah, you're right, that's going to be the big question 405 00:21:50,080 --> 00:21:52,480 Speaker 8: if in fact the tariffs are ruled illegal. 406 00:21:52,520 --> 00:21:53,280 Speaker 3: I think that all of. 407 00:21:53,240 --> 00:21:55,640 Speaker 8: These companies that have been paying these billions of dollars 408 00:21:56,000 --> 00:21:58,440 Speaker 8: in tariff so far are going to demand them back. 409 00:21:58,480 --> 00:22:00,720 Speaker 8: Some of them have already gone to to set the 410 00:22:00,760 --> 00:22:04,320 Speaker 8: stage for that should it happen. And folks who have 411 00:22:04,359 --> 00:22:06,920 Speaker 8: been watching this closely will recall that when there were 412 00:22:07,000 --> 00:22:09,880 Speaker 8: the oral arguments at the Supreme Court not so long ago, 413 00:22:10,240 --> 00:22:13,720 Speaker 8: they signaled that this conservative leaning court could be leaning 414 00:22:13,800 --> 00:22:16,080 Speaker 8: toward overturning the tariffs. You know, of course they didn't 415 00:22:16,119 --> 00:22:18,000 Speaker 8: say outright what they were thinking, but this is just 416 00:22:18,040 --> 00:22:20,440 Speaker 8: based on the questions from the judges. So I think 417 00:22:20,480 --> 00:22:24,359 Speaker 8: people are preparing for that eventuality. Of course, President Trump 418 00:22:24,400 --> 00:22:26,520 Speaker 8: has also signaled there are other options to try to 419 00:22:26,560 --> 00:22:30,119 Speaker 8: get other types of tariffs in there through other legal maneuvers, 420 00:22:30,400 --> 00:22:33,359 Speaker 8: which also could end up being challenged in court. But 421 00:22:33,440 --> 00:22:37,240 Speaker 8: folks are definitely preparing for the eventuality. That they are 422 00:22:37,359 --> 00:22:39,560 Speaker 8: overturned and they'll demand this money back. 423 00:22:40,560 --> 00:22:42,560 Speaker 2: Well, I'm glad you mentioned that, because the White House 424 00:22:42,560 --> 00:22:45,879 Speaker 2: has made it clear that if the court strikes down 425 00:22:46,119 --> 00:22:49,560 Speaker 2: the tariff regime on the IEPA justification, that there will 426 00:22:49,600 --> 00:22:52,560 Speaker 2: be another and maybe another other after that, but that 427 00:22:52,600 --> 00:22:55,680 Speaker 2: would be preceded by an investigation or review, right, so 428 00:22:55,720 --> 00:22:58,280 Speaker 2: this could take months before they come back to the 429 00:22:58,280 --> 00:22:59,680 Speaker 2: plate exactly. 430 00:22:59,720 --> 00:23:03,480 Speaker 8: These are other ways to put tariffs in place involve, 431 00:23:03,560 --> 00:23:06,560 Speaker 8: as he said, investigations, and some of them have limits 432 00:23:06,560 --> 00:23:08,399 Speaker 8: to how long they can last and how high they 433 00:23:08,440 --> 00:23:12,720 Speaker 8: can be, so it's not quite as easy as using 434 00:23:12,760 --> 00:23:16,000 Speaker 8: AEPA the way Trump has done. No president before him 435 00:23:16,000 --> 00:23:19,200 Speaker 8: had used that law in that way, and the way 436 00:23:19,240 --> 00:23:21,119 Speaker 8: that he did use it, as we as we know, 437 00:23:21,680 --> 00:23:24,800 Speaker 8: allowed him to put whatever amount of tariffs he want 438 00:23:24,880 --> 00:23:27,200 Speaker 8: on any country he wants, for as long as he wants. 439 00:23:27,960 --> 00:23:31,199 Speaker 8: So that's the emergency power that these lawsuits are seeking 440 00:23:31,240 --> 00:23:33,000 Speaker 8: to claw back to say that that's not how the 441 00:23:33,080 --> 00:23:35,399 Speaker 8: law was intended. All the other ways are just going 442 00:23:35,440 --> 00:23:37,440 Speaker 8: to be more difficult for the President to put these 443 00:23:38,000 --> 00:23:39,080 Speaker 8: tariffs back in place. 444 00:23:40,160 --> 00:23:42,280 Speaker 2: I'm sure there's nothing else on the docket that rises 445 00:23:42,320 --> 00:23:44,840 Speaker 2: to this level. Eric, but correct me if I'm wrong. 446 00:23:44,880 --> 00:23:46,640 Speaker 2: Is there anything else that we should be looking at 447 00:23:46,920 --> 00:23:48,679 Speaker 2: in terms of the Court's term next year? 448 00:23:48,760 --> 00:23:49,800 Speaker 3: Yeah, there are some big ones. 449 00:23:49,800 --> 00:23:53,359 Speaker 8: We still have a decision on birthright citizenship that Trump 450 00:23:53,400 --> 00:23:55,640 Speaker 8: is president Trump, Trump is trying to roll that back. 451 00:23:55,760 --> 00:23:59,720 Speaker 8: Several courts ruled that that effort, that executive order limiting 452 00:24:00,000 --> 00:24:04,520 Speaker 8: Earth rights citizenship was illegal. We heard arguments at the 453 00:24:04,560 --> 00:24:07,320 Speaker 8: Supreme Court already. It's another one where there was signals 454 00:24:07,359 --> 00:24:11,200 Speaker 8: that they might overturn Trump's executive order, but we don't 455 00:24:11,240 --> 00:24:15,119 Speaker 8: know for sure. That's a huge one, involves citizenship for 456 00:24:15,200 --> 00:24:19,760 Speaker 8: potentially thousands of people babies. We also have some big 457 00:24:19,800 --> 00:24:26,640 Speaker 8: decisions on state laws banning transgender athletes at schools, campaign finance, 458 00:24:27,200 --> 00:24:30,359 Speaker 8: and also voting rights and whether or not efforts to 459 00:24:30,480 --> 00:24:36,199 Speaker 8: make majority minority districts voting districts are illegal. So there 460 00:24:36,240 --> 00:24:37,600 Speaker 8: are some other big ones out there. 461 00:24:38,520 --> 00:24:42,240 Speaker 2: Yeah, it's going to be a huge year with questions 462 00:24:42,320 --> 00:24:46,120 Speaker 2: as well about the legality over the administration's approach to Venezuela. 463 00:24:46,760 --> 00:24:46,960 Speaker 3: Eric. 464 00:24:47,240 --> 00:24:50,800 Speaker 2: I don't want to conflate different beats here, because it 465 00:24:50,800 --> 00:24:54,240 Speaker 2: does seem that if there will be any justification or challenge, 466 00:24:54,240 --> 00:24:56,199 Speaker 2: this would be in Congress, not in the courts, is 467 00:24:56,240 --> 00:24:56,600 Speaker 2: that right. 468 00:24:57,200 --> 00:24:58,080 Speaker 3: That's my understanding. 469 00:24:58,119 --> 00:25:01,200 Speaker 8: I certainly haven't heard of or seen any specific legal 470 00:25:01,320 --> 00:25:04,600 Speaker 8: challenges around that yet, but it's also early days to 471 00:25:04,600 --> 00:25:05,520 Speaker 8: see what happens there. 472 00:25:06,400 --> 00:25:07,000 Speaker 3: God knows. 473 00:25:07,680 --> 00:25:10,040 Speaker 2: Eric Larson has learned, you never know what you're going 474 00:25:10,119 --> 00:25:12,520 Speaker 2: to be reporting the next day. It's great to see you, Eric, 475 00:25:12,560 --> 00:25:14,919 Speaker 2: Happy new year. Thank you for your great coverage in 476 00:25:14,960 --> 00:25:19,439 Speaker 2: twenty twenty five. As always, stay with us on Balance 477 00:25:19,480 --> 00:25:21,640 Speaker 2: of Power. We'll have much more coming up after this. 478 00:25:25,960 --> 00:25:29,400 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch 479 00:25:29,480 --> 00:25:32,920 Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on Apple, 480 00:25:33,000 --> 00:25:36,359 Speaker 1: Cockley and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen 481 00:25:36,400 --> 00:25:39,520 Speaker 1: on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us 482 00:25:39,560 --> 00:25:42,040 Speaker 1: live on YouTube. 483 00:25:42,880 --> 00:25:45,400 Speaker 2: When we come back to Washington in the new year, 484 00:25:45,520 --> 00:25:49,520 Speaker 2: lawmakers come crawling back from the holidays and a bruising 485 00:25:50,080 --> 00:25:54,880 Speaker 2: debate over healthcare premiums that ended this year on Capitol Hill. 486 00:25:55,280 --> 00:25:58,960 Speaker 2: They're going to be big questions and some fast work required. 487 00:26:00,119 --> 00:26:03,840 Speaker 2: Makers are going to deal with the expiration of Obamacare subsidies, which, 488 00:26:03,840 --> 00:26:06,119 Speaker 2: by the way, is just what four days off right now, 489 00:26:06,359 --> 00:26:09,040 Speaker 2: we go over the cliff when we hit the new year, 490 00:26:09,880 --> 00:26:11,960 Speaker 2: and then, of course the matter of government funding. That'll 491 00:26:12,000 --> 00:26:14,080 Speaker 2: be the end of January. If you've listened to this program, 492 00:26:14,119 --> 00:26:17,080 Speaker 2: you know about this all the while, two very important 493 00:26:17,080 --> 00:26:19,679 Speaker 2: deadlines that really could help set the direction for the 494 00:26:19,840 --> 00:26:23,480 Speaker 2: entire year in Washington when it comes to politics, maybe 495 00:26:23,520 --> 00:26:26,000 Speaker 2: not just Washington, maybe the country when it comes to 496 00:26:26,040 --> 00:26:29,000 Speaker 2: the midterm election cycle. That's where we start our conversation 497 00:26:29,280 --> 00:26:32,840 Speaker 2: with our political panel, Bloomberg Politics contributor Republican strategist Rick 498 00:26:32,920 --> 00:26:35,960 Speaker 2: Davis is with us partner at Stone Court Capital, alongside 499 00:26:35,960 --> 00:26:40,040 Speaker 2: Democratic strategist Doug far Our, former director for the Office 500 00:26:40,080 --> 00:26:43,000 Speaker 2: of Public Affairs the FTC. Great to have both of 501 00:26:43,000 --> 00:26:45,160 Speaker 2: you with us here. Rick, I don't know your thoughts 502 00:26:45,880 --> 00:26:49,199 Speaker 2: on this as we look beyond January, but many have 503 00:26:49,359 --> 00:26:52,320 Speaker 2: suggested it that if there's no deal on healthcare reform, 504 00:26:52,880 --> 00:26:55,880 Speaker 2: not only might the government close at the end of January, 505 00:26:55,960 --> 00:26:59,040 Speaker 2: but that could in fact be the issue that tips 506 00:26:59,040 --> 00:27:02,240 Speaker 2: are Republican majority already into a democratic one in the midterms. 507 00:27:03,359 --> 00:27:07,159 Speaker 2: If politics is national, as you frequently say, will the 508 00:27:07,160 --> 00:27:08,840 Speaker 2: midterms be decided next month? 509 00:27:10,520 --> 00:27:13,040 Speaker 9: I actually think the midterms were decided last month. 510 00:27:13,880 --> 00:27:16,639 Speaker 10: I really think that we lost the Republicans lost the 511 00:27:16,840 --> 00:27:19,200 Speaker 10: initiative on healthcare, we had a chance to get ahead 512 00:27:19,240 --> 00:27:22,280 Speaker 10: of it and take away an issue for the Democrats. 513 00:27:22,960 --> 00:27:25,399 Speaker 10: And you know, when you look at the stack of 514 00:27:25,440 --> 00:27:28,280 Speaker 10: debt that we've laid on through the one big beautiful bill, 515 00:27:29,280 --> 00:27:33,240 Speaker 10: not a very popular bill to voters and not hardly 516 00:27:33,320 --> 00:27:36,480 Speaker 10: sold by Republicans in the process, you know, we've laid 517 00:27:36,480 --> 00:27:39,199 Speaker 10: ourselves bare. And so I think if the election were today, 518 00:27:39,480 --> 00:27:41,879 Speaker 10: you know, you'd have a forty fifty seat loss. 519 00:27:42,000 --> 00:27:44,960 Speaker 9: So I think it can improve. 520 00:27:45,320 --> 00:27:49,879 Speaker 10: But if the Republicans don't do something more aggressive on healthcare, 521 00:27:50,320 --> 00:27:54,479 Speaker 10: it just gives Democrats way too big a handle to 522 00:27:54,600 --> 00:27:58,360 Speaker 10: use to beat up, you know, House members and win 523 00:27:58,440 --> 00:27:59,320 Speaker 10: seats next cycle. 524 00:28:00,080 --> 00:28:03,800 Speaker 2: Yeah, Doug, do you agree we're the midterms decided in December. 525 00:28:05,440 --> 00:28:07,280 Speaker 11: Well, I'd like to agree, but I'm always a little 526 00:28:07,359 --> 00:28:10,160 Speaker 11: nervous about the fortunes of my party. What I will say, though, 527 00:28:10,160 --> 00:28:13,000 Speaker 11: is that the wins are clearly favorable for Democrats. I mean, 528 00:28:13,200 --> 00:28:17,480 Speaker 11: they found an issue they can really campaign on in affordability. Obviously, 529 00:28:17,480 --> 00:28:20,199 Speaker 11: the president of him and his party no favors in 530 00:28:20,240 --> 00:28:21,800 Speaker 11: the way that they handle a lot of the cost 531 00:28:21,840 --> 00:28:25,240 Speaker 11: issues in the economy, including healthcare, but you know, there's 532 00:28:25,280 --> 00:28:27,280 Speaker 11: lots of twist and turns left to come. What I 533 00:28:27,320 --> 00:28:29,040 Speaker 11: will say, though, is I think it's time for the 534 00:28:29,040 --> 00:28:31,560 Speaker 11: Democrats now to buckle down and not just say, okay, 535 00:28:31,600 --> 00:28:33,920 Speaker 11: we want to make things more affordable, but show how 536 00:28:33,960 --> 00:28:35,560 Speaker 11: they plan to do it. And I'll be looking to 537 00:28:35,560 --> 00:28:39,160 Speaker 11: see which candidates in which races are able to articulate 538 00:28:39,240 --> 00:28:42,640 Speaker 11: a really compelling policy agenda as they hope to take 539 00:28:42,680 --> 00:28:44,520 Speaker 11: over at least the House and hopefully the Senate. 540 00:28:45,480 --> 00:28:48,120 Speaker 2: Will you be watching New York mayor, Mom, Donnie, he's 541 00:28:48,120 --> 00:28:50,880 Speaker 2: going to be sworn in just about a week from now. 542 00:28:50,920 --> 00:28:52,840 Speaker 3: Doug, does he have the playbook? 543 00:28:54,840 --> 00:28:57,240 Speaker 11: Well, he's being incredibly well advised. He's got a great 544 00:28:57,600 --> 00:29:00,600 Speaker 11: set of transition chairs, including Lena Khan, who's. 545 00:29:00,400 --> 00:29:01,480 Speaker 3: The real policy all star. 546 00:29:01,640 --> 00:29:05,320 Speaker 11: Obviously, people like Senator Warren and Senator Sanders and others 547 00:29:05,360 --> 00:29:08,000 Speaker 11: have been close to the transition, as was reported by 548 00:29:08,040 --> 00:29:10,560 Speaker 11: The Times today, And I think what they're trying to 549 00:29:10,600 --> 00:29:12,760 Speaker 11: do is figure out how to deliver on his agenda. 550 00:29:13,000 --> 00:29:14,920 Speaker 11: And there are a lot of policy options that are 551 00:29:14,960 --> 00:29:19,440 Speaker 11: available to him that don't necessarily require Albany or City 552 00:29:19,440 --> 00:29:22,120 Speaker 11: Council to get involved, because there's lots of really strong 553 00:29:22,520 --> 00:29:25,880 Speaker 11: consumer protection and worker protection rules on the books that 554 00:29:25,920 --> 00:29:29,040 Speaker 11: they can enforce and signal enforcement to businesses. So I 555 00:29:29,040 --> 00:29:31,120 Speaker 11: think he's got a really good opportunity to hit the 556 00:29:31,120 --> 00:29:31,719 Speaker 11: ground running. 557 00:29:32,600 --> 00:29:35,560 Speaker 2: I'm not sure how to think about Mayor Mom Donnie Rick. 558 00:29:35,600 --> 00:29:37,560 Speaker 2: After that meeting with Donald Trump, he was going to 559 00:29:37,560 --> 00:29:39,640 Speaker 2: be the foil, right, this was going to be the 560 00:29:39,760 --> 00:29:42,560 Speaker 2: enemy of all Republicans for the next political cycle. But 561 00:29:42,680 --> 00:29:47,160 Speaker 2: now they're shaking hands, laughing together, talking about affordability as 562 00:29:47,160 --> 00:29:52,400 Speaker 2: if they are partners. Does that change the political prospects 563 00:29:52,480 --> 00:29:53,720 Speaker 2: for Mom Donnie in New York? 564 00:29:54,880 --> 00:29:58,400 Speaker 10: Well, it's certainly changed the political prospects for stefanic in 565 00:29:58,520 --> 00:30:02,080 Speaker 10: New York. I mean, basically that's true, knocked her out 566 00:30:02,120 --> 00:30:05,640 Speaker 10: of the race. So he's already delivered a win for 567 00:30:05,680 --> 00:30:11,920 Speaker 10: the governor at Stefanik's expense. Look, I think all this 568 00:30:12,240 --> 00:30:18,200 Speaker 10: focus on him is relatively irrelevant. There's virtually nobody outside 569 00:30:18,240 --> 00:30:21,720 Speaker 10: the boroughs of New York who cast their ballot based 570 00:30:21,760 --> 00:30:24,160 Speaker 10: on what's happening inside the boroughs of New York. And 571 00:30:24,280 --> 00:30:27,160 Speaker 10: so yeah, it's going to be fun because a third 572 00:30:27,200 --> 00:30:30,880 Speaker 10: of the entire media establishment resides in that jurisdiction. And 573 00:30:30,960 --> 00:30:33,600 Speaker 10: so everybody's going to be watching what he does. But 574 00:30:33,720 --> 00:30:36,240 Speaker 10: I know very few voters who are sitting there breathlessly 575 00:30:36,280 --> 00:30:39,440 Speaker 10: holding their vote to see what he does and then 576 00:30:39,560 --> 00:30:40,400 Speaker 10: make a decision. 577 00:30:40,520 --> 00:30:43,480 Speaker 9: So yeah, a lot of steam, but not a lot 578 00:30:43,520 --> 00:30:43,880 Speaker 9: of fire. 579 00:30:45,200 --> 00:30:48,560 Speaker 2: Interesting, you know, Doug. Following the elections, the big question 580 00:30:48,720 --> 00:30:50,960 Speaker 2: was does Mom Donnie have the playbook for Democrats or 581 00:30:51,040 --> 00:30:55,000 Speaker 2: is it? In fact, the two moderate governors in Mikey 582 00:30:55,080 --> 00:30:59,240 Speaker 2: Cheryl and Abigail Spanberger, and a lot of folks said 583 00:30:59,280 --> 00:31:02,320 Speaker 2: all of the above that the Democratic Party is going 584 00:31:02,360 --> 00:31:05,240 Speaker 2: to be successful in the midterm cycle, well in the 585 00:31:05,280 --> 00:31:08,840 Speaker 2: next presidential election, it's going to have to keep growing 586 00:31:08,880 --> 00:31:09,280 Speaker 2: the tent. 587 00:31:09,840 --> 00:31:11,400 Speaker 3: Do you agree? 588 00:31:12,040 --> 00:31:13,840 Speaker 11: I do in some ways and I don't in others. 589 00:31:13,880 --> 00:31:17,840 Speaker 11: I mean, I think you see Cheryl and Spanberger adopt 590 00:31:17,960 --> 00:31:23,080 Speaker 11: some pretty progressive economic concepts, from trying to freeze rates 591 00:31:23,080 --> 00:31:26,440 Speaker 11: at the utilities in New Jersey under an emergency order, 592 00:31:26,800 --> 00:31:30,600 Speaker 11: to an effort to set up a public PBM, which 593 00:31:30,640 --> 00:31:34,360 Speaker 11: is an entity that's a middleman in pharmaceutical products in 594 00:31:34,440 --> 00:31:37,760 Speaker 11: Virginia under Spanberger. I think there definitely needs to be 595 00:31:37,800 --> 00:31:41,800 Speaker 11: a big tent with respect to cultural and social presentation 596 00:31:41,960 --> 00:31:44,560 Speaker 11: in different districts. Obviously, what works in Brooklyn is not 597 00:31:44,600 --> 00:31:47,600 Speaker 11: necessarily going to be what works in Nebraska. But interestingly, 598 00:31:47,640 --> 00:31:50,400 Speaker 11: there's a candidate running in Nebraska with a very similar 599 00:31:50,400 --> 00:31:53,440 Speaker 11: economic concept to Mayor Mom Donnie who's getting a lot 600 00:31:53,480 --> 00:31:56,960 Speaker 11: of attention and potentially going to threaten the incumbent. So 601 00:31:57,040 --> 00:32:00,000 Speaker 11: I do think that Democrats have found an affordability message 602 00:32:00,320 --> 00:32:03,680 Speaker 11: with an economic populism frame, and now they just need 603 00:32:03,680 --> 00:32:05,680 Speaker 11: to deliver on it. And that's one thing where Mayor 604 00:32:05,720 --> 00:32:08,080 Speaker 11: Mom Donnie will be very relevant because he's set the 605 00:32:08,080 --> 00:32:10,080 Speaker 11: bar very high and I expect he'll deliver. 606 00:32:11,360 --> 00:32:12,480 Speaker 3: Rick, where's the money going? 607 00:32:12,520 --> 00:32:15,960 Speaker 2: We're looking at some doozy Senate races right whether it's 608 00:32:16,200 --> 00:32:21,680 Speaker 2: North Carolina, whether it's Texas, the races in California. 609 00:32:22,440 --> 00:32:24,360 Speaker 3: We could see some new records this cycle. 610 00:32:24,400 --> 00:32:27,440 Speaker 10: No, yeah, I spent a little bit of time in 611 00:32:27,480 --> 00:32:31,600 Speaker 10: Texas last week, and Republicans are really looking at what 612 00:32:31,720 --> 00:32:36,600 Speaker 10: could be an incredibly confusing and also super expensive primary 613 00:32:37,320 --> 00:32:41,440 Speaker 10: that then leads into an equally expensive general election. North Carolina, 614 00:32:41,440 --> 00:32:43,800 Speaker 10: as you mentioned, historically a place where a lot of 615 00:32:43,800 --> 00:32:46,480 Speaker 10: money's spent. No question, it's going to be really important 616 00:32:46,480 --> 00:32:50,360 Speaker 10: to Republicans there in order to sustain their majorities in 617 00:32:50,400 --> 00:32:54,040 Speaker 10: the Senate. Anybody who thinks the Senate is an automatic 618 00:32:55,440 --> 00:32:59,520 Speaker 10: Republican domination is wrong. They've got to think through what 619 00:32:59,640 --> 00:33:03,800 Speaker 10: happened when the bottom falls out if Republican policies aren't 620 00:33:03,960 --> 00:33:08,240 Speaker 10: widely accepted. And you know that, I think one of 621 00:33:08,240 --> 00:33:12,800 Speaker 10: the missing elements. Democrats sort of, you know, kicked off 622 00:33:12,880 --> 00:33:16,520 Speaker 10: this idea of reassessing their party. They didn't want to 623 00:33:16,520 --> 00:33:19,040 Speaker 10: make it public because I'm sure it would hurt, But 624 00:33:19,200 --> 00:33:22,440 Speaker 10: the Republicans have to be equally concerned. Right now, we 625 00:33:22,480 --> 00:33:25,760 Speaker 10: have some of the highest retirements in history going on 626 00:33:25,880 --> 00:33:30,240 Speaker 10: in party in power. Why would anybody want to retire 627 00:33:30,360 --> 00:33:31,960 Speaker 10: if you think you're going to win reelection? 628 00:33:32,160 --> 00:33:34,960 Speaker 9: And so the reality is this. 629 00:33:34,840 --> 00:33:38,760 Speaker 10: Could be a rocky one, but there's no question fundraising 630 00:33:38,840 --> 00:33:42,000 Speaker 10: and spending records are going to be set in this cycle. 631 00:33:43,400 --> 00:33:47,280 Speaker 2: Are Democrats ready for it, Doug in the financial department. 632 00:33:48,560 --> 00:33:49,560 Speaker 9: I'd like to think so. 633 00:33:49,680 --> 00:33:51,840 Speaker 11: I mean, obviously I was concerned to see the DMC 634 00:33:52,040 --> 00:33:55,160 Speaker 11: not come out with their autopsy, and obviously there's still 635 00:33:55,200 --> 00:33:57,720 Speaker 11: some ongoing infighting in the party. But at the end 636 00:33:57,760 --> 00:33:59,680 Speaker 11: of the day, I think these folks want to beat 637 00:33:59,720 --> 00:34:02,560 Speaker 11: Donald Trump. And while there may be some disagreements across 638 00:34:03,000 --> 00:34:07,880 Speaker 11: issues like economics and other social and cultural issues. I 639 00:34:07,920 --> 00:34:11,279 Speaker 11: think that you know the wins are favorable and that 640 00:34:11,320 --> 00:34:13,560 Speaker 11: the donors will come up with sidelines. I also think 641 00:34:13,560 --> 00:34:15,840 Speaker 11: you're going to see a lot of small dollar donation 642 00:34:15,960 --> 00:34:18,399 Speaker 11: candidates do really well because I think people are really 643 00:34:18,480 --> 00:34:22,120 Speaker 11: unhappy with the way in which you know, very large 644 00:34:22,120 --> 00:34:25,080 Speaker 11: and wealthy oligarchs are working with this administration to drive 645 00:34:25,160 --> 00:34:27,120 Speaker 11: up costs for people. I mean, people are very very 646 00:34:27,120 --> 00:34:29,799 Speaker 11: bad and usually that generates a lot of attention and 647 00:34:29,920 --> 00:34:33,680 Speaker 11: can generate a lot of small dollar donations supporting candidates 648 00:34:33,680 --> 00:34:35,760 Speaker 11: who are more on the populist end of the party. 649 00:34:36,520 --> 00:34:40,160 Speaker 2: Really really interesting conversation, Doug. Thank you so much, of course, 650 00:34:40,239 --> 00:34:43,280 Speaker 2: Rick Davis. They'll be back with much more as we 651 00:34:43,320 --> 00:34:45,400 Speaker 2: make our way into the new year, and I appreciate 652 00:34:45,920 --> 00:34:49,040 Speaker 2: your insights as always our great panel. Rick Davis, partner 653 00:34:49,040 --> 00:34:51,520 Speaker 2: at Stone Court Capital. Doug spent time with the FTC 654 00:34:51,680 --> 00:34:55,000 Speaker 2: as director for the Office of Public Affairs. Are democratic 655 00:34:55,000 --> 00:34:56,759 Speaker 2: strategist and great to have you both for this of. 656 00:34:56,800 --> 00:35:03,240 Speaker 3: This day after Christmas. Thanks for listening to the Balance 657 00:35:03,280 --> 00:35:04,320 Speaker 3: of Power podcast. 658 00:35:04,920 --> 00:35:08,080 Speaker 2: Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already at Apple, Spotify, 659 00:35:08,160 --> 00:35:10,719 Speaker 2: or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find 660 00:35:10,800 --> 00:35:14,040 Speaker 2: us live every weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern 661 00:35:14,320 --> 00:35:17,000 Speaker 2: at Bloomberg dot com