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Speaker 1: The Action Network podcast, named best betting podcast or.

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Speaker 2: Radio show by the Fantasy Sports and Gaming Association and

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Speaker 2: the number one show for the invested sports fan.

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Speaker 1: All right, here we go, throwing out job spectacular.

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Speaker 3: I'm setting it to cash. We'll see most gamblers when

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Speaker 3: they go to gamble, they go to win.

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Speaker 4: Oh my god, that's incredible.

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Speaker 3: Big bank, small banks. I like to make money. All right,

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Speaker 3: this is the ultimate kabine you want to pull. And

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Speaker 3: we are underway.

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Speaker 5: And welcome to your week thirteen NFL betting preview podcast.

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Speaker 3: From the Action Network.

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Speaker 5: I am Chris Raybon and I'm joined as always by

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Speaker 5: the Prime Minister of Degenerate Nation, my guy Stucky Stuck.

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Speaker 3: How is your Thanksgiving? And how is your week?

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Speaker 4: It was a fantastic week, fantastic day so far. Ravens

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Speaker 4: Under came in a bunch of college basketball winners for

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Speaker 4: the pod. I would have swept if the Broncos covered,

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Speaker 4: but they didn't. I think that was the first time

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Speaker 4: in my life that I met on an NFL team

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Speaker 4: that had one completion that was absurd.

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Speaker 5: I mean, we kind of talked about it, and I

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Speaker 5: was willing to let you just do whatever you needed to.

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Speaker 3: Do with that bet.

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Speaker 5: I mean that well, I would have taken the Eagles

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Speaker 5: plus six, right, Yeah, and what a crazy game that was.

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Speaker 5: I mean for them, A lot of people had six

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Speaker 5: and a half. But we don't get to do this often.

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Speaker 5: We're recording Wednesday night. We had an NFL game Wednesday night.

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Speaker 5: It happened to be your Baltimore Ravens. So since we

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Speaker 5: have no Thursday night football this week, we're going to

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Speaker 5: do something that we don't usually get to do here

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Speaker 5: on the pod. But I want to know what you

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Speaker 5: thought of what I think is one of the most

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Speaker 5: well coached teams in the league. I thought making a

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Speaker 5: couple of humongous errors giving away two chances that field goals,

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Speaker 5: and then of course the Steelers offense essentially doing what

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Speaker 5: we've been screaming about, which is struggling.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean I had the under I couldn't see

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Speaker 4: the Ravens doing much on offense. They actually did more

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Speaker 4: than I thought they would. They had a decimated offensive line,

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Speaker 4: and Dobbins and Ingram didn't end up playing the Steelers

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Speaker 4: unfortunately lost Bud du Pree. But that Steelers offense, it

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Speaker 4: is just not Super Bowl calibaly. Yet maybe they can

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Speaker 4: get there, but usually you know who teams are by

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Speaker 4: this point in the season, it's probably the time to

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Speaker 4: buy the Ravens. I had a couple people DM me

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Speaker 4: twenty to one and I said, yeah, I took some

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Speaker 4: twenty to one. And the reason is is, look, if

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Speaker 4: they get in, they have the defense, just like the Steelers.

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Speaker 4: They have the defense to win the Super Bowl. Their

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Speaker 4: offense right now is no, we're close to a Super

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Speaker 4: Bowl contender. They need to figure something out with Lamar Jackson.

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Speaker 4: They need to adjust. So you're basically taking a flyer

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Speaker 4: on Greg Roman and this great staff to figure something

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Speaker 4: out offensively. But this is the time by the Ravens

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Speaker 4: love because there's a good chance that they go five

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Speaker 4: and h to end the year, and they go eleven

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Speaker 4: and five and then there's hype back on this team.

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Speaker 4: Mainly it will be because they just had a really

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Speaker 4: easy schedule. I don't know if it's said because they

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Speaker 4: would have solved anything. So if you want to take

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Speaker 4: a flyer, this is the time to do it and

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Speaker 4: buy low on the Ravens. So yeah, I thought it

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Speaker 4: was an ugly game, but pretty expected for a Wednesday

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Speaker 4: afternoon game. After all, this debauchery.

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Speaker 5: I thought you thought, yeah, Like, I totally agree on

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Speaker 5: all your points, especially on the Steelers. Did a piece

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Speaker 5: a few weeks ago on Action network dot Com looking

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Speaker 5: at the Steelers and kind of their offensive struggles and

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Speaker 5: found that, you know, teams that don't have a top

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Speaker 5: seven offense and DVOA by the end of the year

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Speaker 5: just to have made the Super Bowl over the last

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Speaker 5: decade plus. So the Ravens twenty second, the Steelers right

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Speaker 5: now are fifteenth, So you know, both of those teams

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Speaker 5: have some work to do to kind of get where

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Speaker 5: they need to be on offense. So we're gonna get

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Speaker 5: right in to our Sunday six pack. No Thursday Night

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Speaker 5: Football this weekend, so we'll draft our top six side

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Speaker 5: bets from Sunday. Then we'll go into our favorite total

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Speaker 5: teaser moneyline underdog, all that good stuff. But before we

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Speaker 5: kick things off, two very quick reminders. Number One, if

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Speaker 5: you plan to bet the NFL this season and haven't

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Speaker 5: downloaded the free, award winning Action Network app, what are

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Speaker 5: you doing? It's got betting tools analysis for me, Stucky

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Speaker 5: and the whole Action Network team, and it lets you

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Speaker 5: track every bet that you make.

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Speaker 3: You definitely want to download that app.

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Speaker 5: Go file Stucky, He's been killing these last few really

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Speaker 5: this whole season, so you can follow him see all

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Speaker 5: his picks as he makes them.

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Speaker 3: Number two.

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Speaker 5: If you want a chance at a free Vegas vacation,

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Speaker 5: don't forget to enter our free custom weekly DFS contest,

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Speaker 5: the Action Pods Tournament of Champions presented by bet MGM

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Speaker 5: twenty five spots in our wild Card Weekend grand for now.

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Speaker 5: You're still for grabs, so following in this episode description

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Speaker 5: and join for free today. All right, let's get into

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Speaker 5: We've stuck no Thursday night football as mentioned, so let's

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Speaker 5: crack open a Sunday six.

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Speaker 6: Pack Thursday for action.

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Speaker 7: Let's crack open the Sunday six pack.

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Speaker 5: All right, Stuck, you are still maintaining a healthy lead,

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Speaker 5: almost sweat last week, have a touchdown Wed thirty six

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Speaker 5: twenty nine on me, and you got the number one

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Speaker 5: pick this week.

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Speaker 3: Where are you going?

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Speaker 4: Not safe yet? You made a charge late last season,

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Speaker 4: so I'm trying to keep building. I'm gonna try to

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Speaker 4: be nice, short and sweet for once today. We'll see

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Speaker 4: how it works out. But for my first pick of

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Speaker 4: the Sunday six pack, I am going with the Atlanta

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Speaker 4: Falcons plus three at BETMGM. I took some plus three

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Speaker 4: and a half earlier in the week on the app,

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Speaker 4: so hopefully if you follow me there you would have

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Speaker 4: joined me as well. I still do like it at three.

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Speaker 4: I make this one. It's really interesting matchup because Taysom

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Speaker 4: Hill's gonna get three starts this year, and two of

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Speaker 4: them are gonna come against the Falcons. Uh So, they

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Speaker 4: just played the Falcons two weeks ago, and the Falcons

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Speaker 4: I believe closes a three and a half point dog

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Speaker 4: at New Orleans. I was on the Falcons plus five

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Speaker 4: that game. They get closed three to three and a half.

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Speaker 4: After that game, well Coolio Jones got hurt in the game.

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Speaker 4: He's was limited today. I don't know if he's gonna

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Speaker 4: be able to go. I hope he does.

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Speaker 5: Like he'll he'll leave a gamer, we miss the game,

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Speaker 5: and then he usually comes back last like another game

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Speaker 5: or two.

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Speaker 3: He'll probably go down like week fifteen.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, it's just it's it's efty with him because like

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Speaker 4: whenever he runs a route, you're like, don't pull up

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Speaker 4: with the ammy. But I think he's at least gonna start. Look,

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Speaker 4: one of the things that I said, I thought Jamis

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Speaker 4: Winston was gonna start when I bet plus plus plus

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Speaker 4: five originally. And I think the Falcons did as well

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Speaker 4: up until Friday when Sean Payton wins is not gonna

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Speaker 4: get into the game. Damous Winston and Tasom Miill couldn't

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Speaker 4: be more different quarterbacks, so they weren't really I don't

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Speaker 4: think they were really prepared for Tastos Mihill. I'm not

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Speaker 4: a huge Taysom Milk quarterback fan. I mean, what did

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Speaker 4: you do last week? He was horrendous. Hey, I couldn't

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Speaker 4: believe they were leaving. Let them throw. I mean, all

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Speaker 4: you have to do is punt. You won after you

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Speaker 4: got up seven to nothing. But it hasn't been great

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Speaker 4: even against the Falcons. We talked about it, like he

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Speaker 4: threw a couple of balls into the ground. He had

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Speaker 4: that long completion that was under thrown by fifteen yards.

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Speaker 4: So I think the Falcons will be better prepared here.

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Speaker 4: And the Falcons defense is just playing really well of late.

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Speaker 4: You know, they're linebackers. You know obviously have Grady Jarrett

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Speaker 4: trying who can create some interior pressure. They're not they

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Speaker 4: don't get any edge pressure. Throw that out there now,

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Speaker 4: but you don't really get edge pressure against the Saints

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Speaker 4: with their tackles, so I don't think it's that big

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Speaker 4: of a deal here. But they're linebackers or Dion Jones

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Speaker 4: all looking the freshy rookie Walker's playing really well. Their

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Speaker 4: safeties are playing a lot better now. Corners still a

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Speaker 4: weak spot. But I'm not that afraid of Taysom Hill here.

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Speaker 4: I like the way that the Falcons run defense and

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Speaker 4: playing their safeties and linebackers just flying around, playing with

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Speaker 4: a lot more confidence and understanding of what their scheme

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Speaker 4: is ever since really dan Quinn was out of there.

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Speaker 4: I mean, look, the Falcons are zero to five. This

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Speaker 4: is a team that could have been what three and

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Speaker 4: two to start. They their defense dominated last week, but

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Speaker 4: they're four and seven. You know, Dan, you have dan Quinn.

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Speaker 4: A couple of those awful losses flip to wins. This

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Speaker 4: is like a seven and four team. So I'm taking

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Speaker 4: the Falcons here at home, catching three against Taysom Hill

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Speaker 4: and the Saints. I'll make I'll make the Saints defense

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Speaker 4: they dominated that first matchup. I'll make them prove it

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Speaker 4: to me again that they can completely dominate a matchup,

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Speaker 4: because I think the Falcons will be much more ready

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Speaker 4: for Taysom Hill this time around, So give me the

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Speaker 4: home dog here.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I think it's a good spot for a bounce

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Speaker 5: back for the Falcons.

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Speaker 3: You know, great, uh, you know great, point.

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Speaker 5: About out They're going to be more prepared this time

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Speaker 5: and that could be the equalizer because the Saints really

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Speaker 5: had all the advantages in that game.

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Speaker 3: And I think really the one.

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Speaker 5: Advantage the Saints problem or like the kind of card

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Speaker 5: the Saints Sean Payton. You know, knowing Sean Payton, he

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Speaker 5: hasn't been using Alvin Kamara much, and I feel like

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Speaker 5: the Falcons coming in that first game, you're you're concerned

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Speaker 5: about Alvin Kamara. I know the Falcons can stop the run,

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Speaker 5: but they've kind of been using him as a decoy

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Speaker 5: for these last two weeks. I wonder if we see

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Speaker 5: more of him in this matchup. But you look at

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Speaker 5: that game, the Falcons held the Saints to twenty four points.

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Speaker 3: And they have only I think the most they've allowed.

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Speaker 5: Under Raheem Morris is twenty seven points to the Broncos,

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Speaker 5: and that was, you know, the Broncos.

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Speaker 3: Just playing catchup late in the game.

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Speaker 5: They've they've been consistently holding teams in the you know,

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Speaker 5: mid to o twenties, and then the Raiders coming there

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Speaker 5: off a great game against the Chiefs, and you know,

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Speaker 5: I was on the Falcons in that spot. You know,

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Speaker 5: the every this they got, the Raiders got steamed. Everyone

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Speaker 5: was on the Raiders and it just seemed like these

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Speaker 5: teams aren't that different and lo and behold. So I

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Speaker 5: think the Falcons are kind of, like Gruden said, am

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Speaker 5: like the best three and seven and now four and

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Speaker 5: sevent team that he's seen. This is a pretty good

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Speaker 5: football team sans Dan Quinn. I think Ricardo Allen getting

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Speaker 5: him back in that secondary has helped a lot. I

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Speaker 5: think the offense really, I don't know about you, but

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Speaker 5: I feel like every every Russell Gage target is just

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Speaker 5: like a black hole.

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Speaker 3: It's like he'll catch them all, but they go for

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Speaker 3: like six yards.

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Speaker 5: And this dude has the worst balance I've ever seen

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Speaker 5: of a wide receiver, Like no yak just catching fall

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Speaker 5: every single time, and Matt Ryan just keeps going to

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Speaker 5: him and going to him. They must have they must

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Speaker 5: do like just wipe it up in practice or something.

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Speaker 5: But I think that's where you need. Julio is not

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Speaker 5: even necessarily for like him to get like one hundred

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Speaker 5: and fifty yards, but just so that Matt ryans you

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Speaker 5: know read you know his one of his first two

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Speaker 5: reads is not Russell Gage all the time because I

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Speaker 5: think that really holds back their offense when when they're

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Speaker 5: going to him too much, so they should get him back.

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Speaker 5: I don't expect much from Gurly, but uh, definitely a

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Speaker 5: game that the Falcons can flat out you know, win,

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Speaker 5: you don't. You don't see the Saints lose that many

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Speaker 5: games in a given season, but they have to lose

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Speaker 5: a few, and they haven't lost in a while, so

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Speaker 5: I'm I'm on board with that one.

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Speaker 4: Yeah. Under Rahem Morris, the Falcons are four and two

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Speaker 4: after that zero to five start. One of those losses

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Speaker 4: was to the Saints, probably the best team the NFC.

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Speaker 4: The other was because Todd Gurley didn't fall down right,

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Speaker 4: So they really should be five and one. Uh since

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Speaker 4: Raddy Morris took over with three or four wins as underdogs,

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Speaker 4: so I think they're gonna have the one this week.

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Speaker 5: Let's go to my first pick and the second overall

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Speaker 5: pick of the Sunday six pack.

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Speaker 3: Got some ugly ones this week. But I'm gonna start

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Speaker 3: with one.

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Speaker 5: That, uh is the biggest edge that I have project

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Speaker 5: in terms of my spread versus the market, as well

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Speaker 5: as the biggest edge that we have in our Action

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Speaker 5: Network Pro models, which are driven by the projections of myself,

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Speaker 5: Stucky showing Corner, the odds maker, Travis Reed Raheem Palmer.

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Speaker 5: You can check that out at actionnetwork dot com with

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Speaker 5: the prosub.

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Speaker 3: But it's the Arizona Cardinals.

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Speaker 5: The Arizona Cardinals plus three at home against the Los

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Speaker 5: Angeles Rams, and you look at the Cardinals and they're

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Speaker 5: on a four game against the spread losing streak. They

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Speaker 5: won one of those games against the Bills. If you've

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Speaker 5: got the number at a good spot, they may have

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Speaker 5: covered that one. But I think it's a little overblown.

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Speaker 5: I do think that perhaps you know, the shoulders bothering

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Speaker 5: Murray a little bit. They've only called three design runs

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Speaker 5: over the last two weeks versus five point seven per

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Speaker 5: game over the other nine games, So I think you'll

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Speaker 5: start to see that even out he's now what like

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Speaker 5: three weeks removed from that injury. What I really like

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Speaker 5: about Arizona in this spot is they've been losing a

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Speaker 5: couple games, a bunch of games where they could have

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Speaker 5: easily won. They could it could have gone either way.

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Speaker 5: And now you're getting them as a home dog. I

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Speaker 5: have this projected as a pick. And you look at

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Speaker 5: Arizona number four and blitz rate, Well, why is that important?

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Speaker 5: You look at the Rams four losses this year all

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Speaker 5: to blitz happy teams, Miami the third highest, whit Sweet,

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Speaker 5: Buffalo eighth, San Francisco twice, eleventh. When you blitz Jared Goff,

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Speaker 5: when you pressure Jared Goff, however you come about it,

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Speaker 5: good things happen. He's got a thirty nine passer rating

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Speaker 5: under pressure, just four point two yards per attempt, three touchdown,

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Speaker 5: six picks for memberies without Andre Whitworth. And you look

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Speaker 5: at this cardinal pass defense. And even again, just because

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Speaker 5: they've been on a losing streak and they have n't

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Speaker 5: been covering, doesn't mean everything's been terrible. You know, It's

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Speaker 5: not like, oh my god, they're just collapsing and playoffs

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Speaker 5: looks so promising and now it's over. Over the lastlast

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Speaker 5: three weeks they faced Josh Allen Russell Wilson, Cam Newton.

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Speaker 5: They've held him to a combined five point nine four

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Speaker 5: yards per pass attempt bottomed out with Cam Newton last week.

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Speaker 5: I mean he could do absolutely nothing against them. And

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Speaker 5: this is a six and five team. Five losses, three

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Speaker 5: of them have come by three points and only one

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Speaker 5: has come by more than one score.

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Speaker 3: So this team is in every game.

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Speaker 5: You're getting them as a home dog in a game

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Speaker 5: that I think all of us generally have projected somewhere

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Speaker 5: between a pick them and maybe you have the Rams

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Speaker 5: favored by a point or so point and a half,

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Speaker 5: but nowhere close to this number of three that the

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Speaker 5: market has out there. I think that's straight up just

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Speaker 5: because the Cardinals haven't been covering in a while.

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Speaker 3: And I went back and looked at some of these teams.

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Speaker 3: I was curious.

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Speaker 5: You know, teams that are on big against the spread

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Speaker 5: losing streaks and four to six game against the spread

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Speaker 5: losing streaks, teams with a margin of victory of negative

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Speaker 5: four better. So the Cardinals have a positive margin of victory.

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Speaker 5: They're a pretty solid team. But teams are the margin

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Speaker 5: of victory as long as it's negative four or better,

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Speaker 5: and they are the spread is plus three and a

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Speaker 5: half or better, which means they could be favored. They

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Speaker 5: could be a dog up to three and a half.

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Speaker 5: They are fifty two to twenty eight and four sixty

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Speaker 5: five percent against the spread since two thousand and five,

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Speaker 5: so nearly doubling up in terms of wins versus losses

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Speaker 5: against the spread.

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Speaker 3: This is just a spot where the.

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Speaker 5: Better, the casual better is going to be a little

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Speaker 5: bit hesitant. The book opens the line a little bit inflated.

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Speaker 5: I wouldn't be surprised if it comes down as the

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Speaker 5: week progresses. But I love the Cardinals plus three. They

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Speaker 5: I think they are going to blitz Jarrek goffin good

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Speaker 5: things will happen for him, and the Rams needed some

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Speaker 5: good things to happen just to kind of stay in

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Speaker 5: that game last week against San Francisco, a team that

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Speaker 5: I think is still not quite as good as the Cardinals,

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Speaker 5: given all the injuries that they're dealing with. So like

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Speaker 5: the Cardinals here, like Kyler to rebound, and liked them

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Speaker 5: to create some some havoc for Jared Goff.

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Speaker 4: I make this one Arizona plus one. I mean everything

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Speaker 4: I've been reading, I do think that Mary they were

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Speaker 4: really cautious with him last week. They kind of had

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Speaker 4: kid created them with kids gloves they really should have

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Speaker 4: won that game. I mean, the Patriots won that game

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Speaker 4: on special teams, but they had two fifty plus yard

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Speaker 4: punt returns. They made the game winning field goal off

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Speaker 4: their Arizona missed it. We going at one hundred and

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Speaker 4: seventy nine yards in average three point five yards per play.

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Speaker 4: How the fuck do you win an NFL game with

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Speaker 4: those stats in twenty twenty, I mean special teams, and

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Speaker 4: the Cardinals didn't get in at the one to end

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Speaker 4: the half, even though I think that they did, so

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Speaker 4: that was kind of a fluke. He lost h I mean,

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Speaker 4: so I do have confidence in Mary's shoulder from everything

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Speaker 4: that I'm reading. It's obviously a question headed into this,

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Speaker 4: and then you're gonna have Jalen Ramsey on Hopkins, which

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Speaker 4: will be a great matchup to watch. But yeah, I

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Speaker 4: think the play here, I do agree with you. The

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Speaker 4: play here is Arizona. The only thing that would scare

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Speaker 4: me a bit with Arizona is one of their weaknesses

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Speaker 4: this year has been I mean McVeigh six and zero

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Speaker 4: against the spread, covering by over two touchdowns a game

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Speaker 4: against Arizona. What is Arizona? Last year weased to joke

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Speaker 4: about it. They can't cover tight ends. Now they're a

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Speaker 4: little better, but there's still like twentieth in the NFL.

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Speaker 4: They're like twenty third in the NFL defending the short pass,

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Speaker 4: so and they don't really let up explosive passes. So

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Speaker 4: that's one of their strikes. But that's not what the

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Speaker 4: Rams do. So is McVeigh going to exploit that again?

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Speaker 4: Now this is a new coaching staff within the past

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Speaker 4: year or so, but it is something worth noting. But yeah,

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Speaker 4: GoF is just he's gonna make a couple of mistakes,

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Speaker 4: you know that. But yeah, I make this one. From

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Speaker 4: everything I'm reading, It's like, if Mary wasn't healthy and

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Speaker 4: I wasn't confident in the shoulder, I would stay away

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Speaker 4: from this. I think that you can have confidence here

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Speaker 4: that Mary will be a full go and this is

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Speaker 4: probably the most important game of the season for them

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Speaker 4: at six and five, So yeah, I agree with you.

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Speaker 4: It's I missed the flat three. It's plus three minutes,

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Speaker 4: one twenty. I'm either going to join you or if

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Speaker 4: it goes to two and a half, I'll probably just

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Speaker 4: end up teasing it. But we'll get to teasers later.

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Speaker 3: Hope you're enjoying this.

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Speaker 1: Great action network podcast. I want to make sure you

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Speaker 1: know about the locked On podcast network locked on as

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Speaker 1: a daily podcast on your favorite team.

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Speaker 4: Welcome to you, Lockdown forty nine ers. You are locked

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Speaker 4: own of the Dallas marriage.

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Speaker 3: Hello everybody for the Lockdown Lakers podcast.

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Speaker 4: Let's go.

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Speaker 1: Locked On podcasts are hosted by the local experts who

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Speaker 1: know your team better than anyone and give you the

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Speaker 1: inside scoop. So go to your podcast app and search

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Speaker 1: locked on your favorite team, subscribe to your locked on podcast.

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Speaker 4: All right, for my second pick in the Sunday six pack,

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Speaker 4: let's get ugly, folks. I'm going with the Philadelphia Eagles

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Speaker 4: plus nine at bet MGM at Green Bay. Yes, the

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Speaker 4: Eagles are on a short week, They're traveling to Green

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Speaker 4: Bay after three straight losses. They're three to seven and one.

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Speaker 4: They basically need to win this game or maybe not

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Speaker 4: give the their division. But this is the most important

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Speaker 4: game of their season. Does that sound familiar? Last year

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Speaker 4: on a short week going to Lambeau after a couple

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Speaker 4: losses as a dog and they won out right. Yeah,

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Speaker 4: that's what the Eagles did last year. And they've won

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Speaker 4: a couple of these random road games. And here's the formula.

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Speaker 4: The Eagles have the formula to compete with the Packers,

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Speaker 4: how well. Look at last year's game in Green Bay.

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Speaker 4: Eagles ran a thirty three times for one hundred and

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Speaker 4: seventy six yards five point three yards per carry. Sound familiar. Yes,

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Speaker 4: any competent rushing offense can do that against the Packers.

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Speaker 4: Wentz only threw it for one hundred and sixty yards,

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Speaker 4: but he had three touchdowns. Why he wasn't throwing to

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Speaker 4: his receivers who can't catch anything this year anyway, his

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Speaker 4: receivers that threw four total catches that game. He just

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Speaker 4: threw it through his tight ends and backs, which the

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Speaker 4: Packers struggled to cover both. So I think that the

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Speaker 4: Eagles can come out here, control the clock, move the

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Speaker 4: ball on the ground. Wentz hopefully doesn't throw seven picks

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Speaker 4: because he's been so bad, but he can throw to

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Speaker 4: his tight ends, he can throw to his backs. They

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Speaker 4: can run some screens. Devanta Adams is gonna get his look.

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Speaker 4: Darius Slay, who is just he's good. Metcalf last week

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Speaker 4: is well up the shadow DeVante Adams this week, and

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Speaker 4: then I think it's Michael Thomas Hopkins. It's just a

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Speaker 4: nightmare stretch for him. Adams owned him last year. Last year,

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Speaker 4: in this game against the Eagles, Slay wasn't playing. Adams

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Speaker 4: got ten for one to eighty. The Eagles still won.

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Speaker 4: But look, even if Slay and he's owned Sligh, he

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Speaker 4: owned Slay last year, had huge numbers against the lines

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Speaker 4: both him. Even if Slay, well, I think is over

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Speaker 4: the hill, even say doesn't playing better this year, playing better,

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Speaker 4: But I'm sorry, I don't think. I don't think he's

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Speaker 4: an elite shut down, shut down DeVonta Adams. But no

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Speaker 4: one knowing is no one shuts down, So I don't care.

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Speaker 4: Devanta Adams is going to get his like, that's not him.

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Speaker 4: He's not gonna Yeah, it's not gonna fucking make me say, Wait,

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Speaker 4: Demanta Adams is gonna have one hundred and fifty yards.

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Speaker 4: I can't bet the Packers are can't. I can't better

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Speaker 4: gets back. Devin Adams is always gonna be each day.

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Speaker 4: So yeah, chalk that up. If Sligh has to gave

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Speaker 4: his life and shuts shuts Devanta Adams down, great, the

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Speaker 4: Eagle should have no problem covering.

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Speaker 3: Uh.

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Speaker 4: But there's a couple of things worth mentioning here.

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Speaker 3: Jy R.

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Speaker 4: Alexander has been the best corner in the NFL. Arguably

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Speaker 4: he shuts down a lot of times. The other teams

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Speaker 4: opposing number one, that's a big part of their defense.

435
00:21:40,880 --> 00:21:44,080
Speaker 4: That does that matter here? No, your biggest strength on

436
00:21:44,160 --> 00:21:47,080
Speaker 4: your defense of the lockdown corner? Who's he taking away?

437
00:21:47,320 --> 00:21:47,399
Speaker 2: Like?

438
00:21:47,400 --> 00:21:50,240
Speaker 4: All right, you go take away Travis Folgem or or

439
00:21:50,280 --> 00:21:53,320
Speaker 4: al Sean Jeffer like who cares? So his strength there

440
00:21:53,359 --> 00:21:56,000
Speaker 4: is dramatically decreased in this matchup. Another thing to keep

441
00:21:56,000 --> 00:21:59,240
Speaker 4: in mind is Corey Linsley, who by most metrics, has

442
00:21:59,280 --> 00:22:02,080
Speaker 4: been the best center in the entire NFL. He's probably

443
00:22:02,119 --> 00:22:04,760
Speaker 4: gonna be an All Pro I think per PFF he's

444
00:22:04,800 --> 00:22:08,400
Speaker 4: a number one overall rated center. He's hurt last week

445
00:22:08,520 --> 00:22:10,480
Speaker 4: what other guards slid over and played center, But this

446
00:22:10,520 --> 00:22:14,120
Speaker 4: week it's gonna be a rookie sixth rounder starting at

447
00:22:14,119 --> 00:22:16,679
Speaker 4: center and John Running junior he's likely to get his

448
00:22:16,720 --> 00:22:20,399
Speaker 4: first career start against the Eagles. Where's dad? John Running?

449
00:22:20,640 --> 00:22:22,480
Speaker 4: Many of you probably remember played for nine years and

450
00:22:22,520 --> 00:22:24,879
Speaker 4: made a Pro Bowl. Then they already lost Lane Taylor

451
00:22:24,880 --> 00:22:29,760
Speaker 4: from week one, so this interior might be a little shaky,

452
00:22:29,840 --> 00:22:32,560
Speaker 4: and it's been very solid, I mean Lindsley's just a star.

453
00:22:33,359 --> 00:22:36,200
Speaker 4: The Eagles d line can get pressure. I mean, Hargreaves

454
00:22:36,240 --> 00:22:38,760
Speaker 4: is playing like a beast lately of Fletcher Cox. Their

455
00:22:38,800 --> 00:22:40,920
Speaker 4: defensive line is great. So Rogers gets rid of the

456
00:22:40,960 --> 00:22:42,879
Speaker 4: ball very quickly. How you can get to him and

457
00:22:42,920 --> 00:22:44,479
Speaker 4: how you can bother him. You have to hit him

458
00:22:44,480 --> 00:22:46,679
Speaker 4: and you have to get interior pressure. I think the

459
00:22:46,760 --> 00:22:49,600
Speaker 4: Eagles might be able to do that here against a

460
00:22:49,720 --> 00:22:52,880
Speaker 4: shaky center situation for green Bay. I think that they're

461
00:22:52,880 --> 00:22:55,560
Speaker 4: going to bring pressure up the middle. Singleton and Edwards.

462
00:22:55,600 --> 00:22:58,520
Speaker 4: Their linebackers not great in coverage, not great in a

463
00:22:58,560 --> 00:23:01,200
Speaker 4: lot of aspists, but they've been really good rushing the passer.

464
00:23:01,520 --> 00:23:03,720
Speaker 4: So I think you're gonna see them blitzing up the middle,

465
00:23:04,320 --> 00:23:06,680
Speaker 4: just putting a ton of pressure on that into your

466
00:23:06,920 --> 00:23:09,440
Speaker 4: green Bay offensive line. I'm sure Rogers will get his

467
00:23:09,880 --> 00:23:12,000
Speaker 4: I think Eagles can have some success running the ball,

468
00:23:12,160 --> 00:23:13,679
Speaker 4: and I think their defense could do some things in

469
00:23:13,680 --> 00:23:15,720
Speaker 4: the in tier. I make this a tat under seven.

470
00:23:16,000 --> 00:23:18,720
Speaker 4: I know it's a bad situation for the Eagles, but

471
00:23:18,720 --> 00:23:21,840
Speaker 4: we've seen the Packers kind of sleepy for a couple

472
00:23:21,880 --> 00:23:24,240
Speaker 4: of games here, and if you look at the path,

473
00:23:24,280 --> 00:23:27,360
Speaker 4: I mean you take a look at that Jaguars game

474
00:23:27,359 --> 00:23:29,280
Speaker 4: comes to mind. If you look at the Packers, they're

475
00:23:29,320 --> 00:23:32,760
Speaker 4: sitting pretty They basically won the division. They play, they

476
00:23:32,880 --> 00:23:35,720
Speaker 4: they have the Eagles coming in now. Next week they

477
00:23:35,960 --> 00:23:39,040
Speaker 4: play the Lions, then they're home against the Panthers. So

478
00:23:39,080 --> 00:23:42,399
Speaker 4: it's like, I think that they might you know, they

479
00:23:42,440 --> 00:23:44,440
Speaker 4: just come off a big division win, pretty much lock

480
00:23:44,520 --> 00:23:46,840
Speaker 4: up the division, so you could catch them maybe a

481
00:23:46,880 --> 00:23:50,960
Speaker 4: little sleepy here. I think the Eagles keep this within

482
00:23:50,960 --> 00:23:53,680
Speaker 4: a touchdown. It's scary because Wentz has been so bad,

483
00:23:53,920 --> 00:23:57,480
Speaker 4: but give me the Eagles fly. Eagles fly.

484
00:24:09,000 --> 00:24:09,240
Speaker 3: Yeah.

485
00:24:09,280 --> 00:24:12,000
Speaker 5: I mean this, like, at first glance, it does kind

486
00:24:12,000 --> 00:24:14,479
Speaker 5: of worry a little bit, just because Carson Wentz has

487
00:24:14,520 --> 00:24:17,200
Speaker 5: been bad. The offense has been bad, the receivers have

488
00:24:17,320 --> 00:24:20,520
Speaker 5: been bad, Doug Peterson has been bad, the line has

489
00:24:20,560 --> 00:24:23,879
Speaker 5: been bad, that the injury situation has been bad. Everything

490
00:24:23,880 --> 00:24:26,920
Speaker 5: about that offense has been bad. But this, if you've

491
00:24:26,960 --> 00:24:29,399
Speaker 5: been listening to this podcast, if you've been you know,

492
00:24:29,440 --> 00:24:32,840
Speaker 5: following my betting content at Action Network, you know that

493
00:24:34,040 --> 00:24:36,439
Speaker 5: I'm always on top of these spots. These are the

494
00:24:36,480 --> 00:24:39,920
Speaker 5: spots where you fade Rogers when you have a defense

495
00:24:40,280 --> 00:24:43,159
Speaker 5: that can get pressure. Eagles top eight in pressure rate

496
00:24:43,440 --> 00:24:47,800
Speaker 5: according to Pro Football Reference without blitzing Eagles bottom eight

497
00:24:47,960 --> 00:24:51,280
Speaker 5: and blitz rate. Jim Schwartz generally gonna rely on that

498
00:24:51,359 --> 00:24:55,280
Speaker 5: D line to get pressure, and they can. So that's

499
00:24:55,359 --> 00:24:59,040
Speaker 5: been the combination to throw Rogers off his game. Now,

500
00:24:59,400 --> 00:25:02,960
Speaker 5: his over role efficiency, you know, has been improving against

501
00:25:03,000 --> 00:25:06,960
Speaker 5: pressure this year. He's he's got an eighty one passer rating,

502
00:25:07,000 --> 00:25:07,800
Speaker 5: that's eleventh.

503
00:25:07,880 --> 00:25:09,639
Speaker 3: But that's a little bit.

504
00:25:10,400 --> 00:25:14,119
Speaker 5: Misweeding because he's completing just forty one percent of his

505
00:25:14,240 --> 00:25:18,560
Speaker 5: passes under pressure, which ranks thirty third of forty qualifiers.

506
00:25:18,600 --> 00:25:21,959
Speaker 5: So you're kind of just introducing a lot of variants

507
00:25:22,040 --> 00:25:25,040
Speaker 5: when you pressure Rogers and you can drop you know,

508
00:25:25,240 --> 00:25:28,199
Speaker 5: seven in the coverage. So Green Bay, should they win

509
00:25:28,240 --> 00:25:32,880
Speaker 5: a game, yeah, by ten, then it gets iffy, and

510
00:25:33,000 --> 00:25:36,679
Speaker 5: you do have some equalizers. You have Marquez Valdez scant

511
00:25:36,680 --> 00:25:40,600
Speaker 5: wing willing to match Carson Wentz mistake for mistake. So

512
00:25:41,119 --> 00:25:43,240
Speaker 5: you know, you got you got a few things working

513
00:25:43,800 --> 00:25:45,359
Speaker 5: in your favor here. But and you also got the

514
00:25:45,400 --> 00:25:49,360
Speaker 5: Richard Rodgers revenge game, you know, going for Philly. Interesting game,

515
00:25:49,440 --> 00:25:52,080
Speaker 5: but this is this is the fade Rogers spot against

516
00:25:52,119 --> 00:25:54,679
Speaker 5: the defense who gets pressure might not seem like it.

517
00:25:54,720 --> 00:25:57,040
Speaker 3: But I mean the Eagles are impressive against Seattle.

518
00:25:57,440 --> 00:25:59,760
Speaker 5: You know, maybe lucked into that cover at the end

519
00:25:59,760 --> 00:26:05,119
Speaker 5: with the with the ricocheted hail Mary, but that not

520
00:26:05,119 --> 00:26:06,320
Speaker 5: not to blame for their defense.

521
00:26:06,359 --> 00:26:08,080
Speaker 3: So yeah, you got a hold your those.

522
00:26:08,080 --> 00:26:11,120
Speaker 5: Every time you you bet on Carson Wentz, I get

523
00:26:11,119 --> 00:26:13,399
Speaker 5: a feeling at some point they're just gonna They're just

524
00:26:13,480 --> 00:26:15,800
Speaker 5: gonna give Jay when hurts, like a whole series, because

525
00:26:16,040 --> 00:26:18,919
Speaker 5: I mean, Wentz just has these awful stretches, but that

526
00:26:18,960 --> 00:26:21,000
Speaker 5: defense will keep him in it. And this is the

527
00:26:21,359 --> 00:26:23,080
Speaker 5: this is the spot to Faye Rogers.

528
00:26:22,760 --> 00:26:25,840
Speaker 4: Though, and look the Packers run. He's still really bad.

529
00:26:25,920 --> 00:26:28,000
Speaker 4: I think that the Eagles can lean on that, and

530
00:26:28,040 --> 00:26:30,359
Speaker 4: it's not a defensive line or group of linebackers that

531
00:26:30,440 --> 00:26:33,760
Speaker 4: really scares me. Carson Wentz, yes, he's been horrific, no

532
00:26:33,880 --> 00:26:36,280
Speaker 4: choice about. The receivers can't get open though, they can't

533
00:26:36,320 --> 00:26:39,800
Speaker 4: create separation, and the offensive line has been musical chairs.

534
00:26:40,040 --> 00:26:43,600
Speaker 4: It's been really bad, no continuity, But that doesn't scare

535
00:26:43,680 --> 00:26:47,439
Speaker 4: me as much. Against Green Bay, I think the Eagles

536
00:26:47,480 --> 00:26:51,080
Speaker 4: can really rely on Miles Sanders from Boston Scott throwing

537
00:26:51,080 --> 00:26:53,400
Speaker 4: the tight ends here. So see how it works out.

538
00:26:54,040 --> 00:26:55,159
Speaker 3: Yeah, this is this is.

539
00:26:55,280 --> 00:26:57,680
Speaker 5: Kind of one of those things where you have the

540
00:26:58,800 --> 00:27:03,040
Speaker 5: kind of the game theory betting trend working for you

541
00:27:03,400 --> 00:27:06,439
Speaker 5: and the player specific trend working against you because you

542
00:27:06,480 --> 00:27:09,560
Speaker 5: have and I talked about this last week with San Francisco,

543
00:27:09,640 --> 00:27:12,920
Speaker 5: I believe it was but an underdog on a three

544
00:27:12,960 --> 00:27:16,200
Speaker 5: game straight up losing streak, which the Eagles are now on.

545
00:27:16,760 --> 00:27:18,800
Speaker 3: Uh, those teams against.

546
00:27:18,520 --> 00:27:21,719
Speaker 5: The spread have gone one hundred and seventy one twenty

547
00:27:21,760 --> 00:27:24,760
Speaker 5: three and nine according to our Action Labs data since

548
00:27:24,760 --> 00:27:27,080
Speaker 5: two thousand and three, a fifty eight percent.

549
00:27:27,160 --> 00:27:30,840
Speaker 3: Cover rate, nine and four this season. Uh.

550
00:27:31,119 --> 00:27:36,720
Speaker 5: But then, of course Aaron Rodgers at Lambeau thirteen or

551
00:27:36,760 --> 00:27:39,280
Speaker 5: left minus thirteen or less fifty six, twenty eight and

552
00:27:39,320 --> 00:27:42,760
Speaker 5: four in his career, a regular and postseason sixty seven percent.

553
00:27:42,920 --> 00:27:45,879
Speaker 5: But I went ahead and I looked up because I

554
00:27:45,920 --> 00:27:49,200
Speaker 5: was curious. So those teams on those three game losing streaks,

555
00:27:49,240 --> 00:27:52,360
Speaker 5: you know, have they ever kind of run into Rogers?

556
00:27:52,560 --> 00:27:53,359
Speaker 3: So what did I do?

557
00:27:53,400 --> 00:27:56,280
Speaker 5: I opened up our Action Labs database for that trend

558
00:27:56,520 --> 00:27:59,240
Speaker 5: covering fifty eight percent three game losing streak going back

559
00:27:59,240 --> 00:28:00,200
Speaker 5: to two thousand and three.

560
00:28:00,320 --> 00:28:03,560
Speaker 3: You can filter for opponent quarterback. I pop it open.

561
00:28:03,960 --> 00:28:07,840
Speaker 5: Guess who's the most profitable quarterback to bet against when

562
00:28:07,880 --> 00:28:10,760
Speaker 5: a team is on a three game straight up losing streak.

563
00:28:12,040 --> 00:28:14,480
Speaker 4: Aaron Rodgers Aaron Rodgers.

564
00:28:14,520 --> 00:28:19,040
Speaker 5: Wow, are seven and one against the spread against Aaron

565
00:28:19,119 --> 00:28:22,639
Speaker 5: Rodgers when they are on a three game losing streak.

566
00:28:23,080 --> 00:28:26,760
Speaker 5: And not only that, but it gets even better. Six

567
00:28:26,800 --> 00:28:31,720
Speaker 5: of those seven games in Lambeau and the only person

568
00:28:32,320 --> 00:28:34,560
Speaker 5: the only coach not to cover. I'll give you another

569
00:28:34,600 --> 00:28:37,280
Speaker 5: guest stuck. This won't be hard either. The only coach

570
00:28:37,359 --> 00:28:39,600
Speaker 5: not to cover in this spot seven and one. Who's

571
00:28:39,640 --> 00:28:40,520
Speaker 5: the coach that didn't cover?

572
00:28:40,840 --> 00:28:42,120
Speaker 4: I'm gonna guess Dan Quinn.

573
00:28:42,760 --> 00:28:44,760
Speaker 3: Bravo, Dan Kuow.

574
00:28:44,800 --> 00:28:49,440
Speaker 5: So this is pretty much like like it's almost too

575
00:28:49,440 --> 00:28:51,760
Speaker 5: good to be true, which means the Eagles will probably

576
00:28:51,760 --> 00:28:55,080
Speaker 5: get dusted by like forty five. But even the trends

577
00:28:55,120 --> 00:28:58,800
Speaker 5: that are working against you are actually working in your favor.

578
00:28:59,200 --> 00:29:02,000
Speaker 3: So I like this one again, Aaron Rodgers.

579
00:29:02,000 --> 00:29:05,000
Speaker 5: Against defenses that can get pressure without Woodsing, You're not

580
00:29:05,040 --> 00:29:07,000
Speaker 5: gonna sw them down completely, but it's the best way

581
00:29:07,000 --> 00:29:11,280
Speaker 5: to neutralize a team that is extremely one dimensional and

582
00:29:11,880 --> 00:29:15,400
Speaker 5: really kind of falls off after DeVante Adams.

583
00:29:15,440 --> 00:29:18,400
Speaker 4: So U Also, the Falcons the Falcons had like eleven

584
00:29:18,520 --> 00:29:19,920
Speaker 4: defensive starters out that game.

585
00:29:20,800 --> 00:29:24,280
Speaker 5: Yeah, and being coached by Dan Quinn is like having

586
00:29:24,320 --> 00:29:27,520
Speaker 5: another eleven defensive stuff. It's like twenty two just missing

587
00:29:27,520 --> 00:29:29,080
Speaker 5: their whole team.

588
00:29:29,120 --> 00:29:30,560
Speaker 3: All right, let's move on.

589
00:29:31,000 --> 00:29:34,040
Speaker 5: So that was your number two pick for my number

590
00:29:34,040 --> 00:29:36,760
Speaker 5: two pick and the number four pick of the week

591
00:29:36,840 --> 00:29:39,200
Speaker 5: thirteen Sunday six pack.

592
00:29:39,600 --> 00:29:40,400
Speaker 3: I'm getting ugly.

593
00:29:40,600 --> 00:29:43,440
Speaker 5: I'm getting real ugly, like like this might be my

594
00:29:43,560 --> 00:29:48,080
Speaker 5: ugliest pick all year, Cincinnati. This is I mean, this

595
00:29:48,160 --> 00:29:50,600
Speaker 5: is like a stucky pick. I'm surprised you didn't. I

596
00:29:50,600 --> 00:29:52,160
Speaker 5: feel like you would have taken this if I hadn't.

597
00:29:52,200 --> 00:29:55,680
Speaker 5: Maybe not, but uh, plus eleven and a half against

598
00:29:55,800 --> 00:29:58,680
Speaker 5: Miami Dolphins, the Miami Dolphins that you hate. I know

599
00:29:58,800 --> 00:30:01,040
Speaker 5: that that you've been really for ways to fade them,

600
00:30:01,080 --> 00:30:02,280
Speaker 5: and I think this is a spot.

601
00:30:02,600 --> 00:30:07,840
Speaker 3: I mean, and this is purely a number.

602
00:30:07,600 --> 00:30:10,840
Speaker 5: Play based on the fact that you have an eleven

603
00:30:10,920 --> 00:30:12,520
Speaker 5: and a half point spread.

604
00:30:12,600 --> 00:30:13,320
Speaker 3: For a team.

605
00:30:13,760 --> 00:30:16,280
Speaker 5: It's really good on defense, really good on special teams.

606
00:30:16,480 --> 00:30:18,680
Speaker 5: But you know, are they starting to it? They starting

607
00:30:18,680 --> 00:30:22,520
Speaker 5: fits offense a little up and down, dealing with some injuries.

608
00:30:23,160 --> 00:30:29,440
Speaker 5: Fits magicgic and the total is forty two and yeah,

609
00:30:29,480 --> 00:30:32,680
Speaker 5: that's probably the correct total. But we know how hard

610
00:30:32,720 --> 00:30:35,360
Speaker 5: it is to cover a big number, especially for a

611
00:30:35,400 --> 00:30:37,760
Speaker 5: team that's not great on offense. I know Cincinnati's not

612
00:30:37,760 --> 00:30:40,760
Speaker 5: great on defense either, but Miami not great on offense.

613
00:30:40,840 --> 00:30:42,760
Speaker 3: To cover this big of a number.

614
00:30:43,200 --> 00:30:46,920
Speaker 5: In a game expected to be this low scoring, extremely tough.

615
00:30:47,200 --> 00:30:47,720
Speaker 3: How tough?

616
00:30:48,320 --> 00:30:52,800
Speaker 5: Road underdogs plus eleven or more with a total of

617
00:30:52,880 --> 00:30:56,600
Speaker 5: forty six or less and the total right now bet MGM,

618
00:30:56,840 --> 00:30:59,920
Speaker 5: the official odds provider of the Action Network podcast, is

619
00:31:00,320 --> 00:31:03,000
Speaker 5: forty two and a half for Dolphins Bengals. It's the

620
00:31:03,040 --> 00:31:07,360
Speaker 5: lowest projected score of week number thirteen, and it's just

621
00:31:07,400 --> 00:31:11,680
Speaker 5: extremely tough for a team like the Dolphins, especially to

622
00:31:11,760 --> 00:31:13,800
Speaker 5: cover this big a number. So you look back in

623
00:31:13,880 --> 00:31:17,920
Speaker 5: history and plus road dogs by eleven or more total

624
00:31:18,000 --> 00:31:22,160
Speaker 5: forty six or less one hundred sixty three and one

625
00:31:22,360 --> 00:31:26,240
Speaker 5: a sixty one percent win rate against the spread dating

626
00:31:26,280 --> 00:31:28,800
Speaker 5: back to two thousand and three according to our Action

627
00:31:28,920 --> 00:31:30,080
Speaker 5: Labs data.

628
00:31:30,680 --> 00:31:32,920
Speaker 3: So this is that this is the play.

629
00:31:32,800 --> 00:31:36,920
Speaker 5: Like there's no you know, hitting advantage to Brandon Allen

630
00:31:37,040 --> 00:31:40,240
Speaker 5: going against you know this Dolphins defense. You can run

631
00:31:40,280 --> 00:31:42,880
Speaker 5: the ball on Miami, which also kind of helps, you know,

632
00:31:43,280 --> 00:31:45,160
Speaker 5: not what these things always get out of hand. But

633
00:31:45,720 --> 00:31:47,240
Speaker 5: at the end of the day, you know, Bengals, we

634
00:31:47,280 --> 00:31:50,920
Speaker 5: saw them get a return touchdown, which essentially cost me

635
00:31:50,960 --> 00:31:54,240
Speaker 5: the cover for the Giants last week. But that's always

636
00:31:54,240 --> 00:31:56,240
Speaker 5: good news when you're playing in Miami because they do

637
00:31:56,360 --> 00:31:59,040
Speaker 5: tend to have an edge on most teams, on special teams.

638
00:31:59,280 --> 00:32:03,200
Speaker 5: But Miami is at having to win by twelve, like

639
00:32:03,680 --> 00:32:06,040
Speaker 5: we how did we get here? Like I know Miami,

640
00:32:06,080 --> 00:32:09,960
Speaker 5: I love Flores, Miami having a great season, overachieving, but

641
00:32:10,560 --> 00:32:13,880
Speaker 5: Miami a twelve point favorite, you know, low total game.

642
00:32:13,920 --> 00:32:16,640
Speaker 3: I mean, this is streams fade.

643
00:32:17,040 --> 00:32:21,080
Speaker 4: I mean, technically from a line perspective, I agree with you,

644
00:32:21,640 --> 00:32:24,320
Speaker 4: but I can't. I don't mind my I don't mind

645
00:32:24,320 --> 00:32:27,360
Speaker 4: Miami with Fitzpatrick. I don't mind Miami with Fitzpatrick. I

646
00:32:27,400 --> 00:32:30,080
Speaker 4: assumed he's gonna start. I'm just trying to fade to

647
00:32:30,360 --> 00:32:32,960
Speaker 4: h The Miami defense is really good. I don't see

648
00:32:33,000 --> 00:32:35,080
Speaker 4: what what's Brandon Allen. I don't know how Sis is

649
00:32:35,080 --> 00:32:37,400
Speaker 4: gonna do anything. Last week, by the way, I mean,

650
00:32:37,440 --> 00:32:40,320
Speaker 4: you should have won that game. The Bengals were out

651
00:32:40,360 --> 00:32:43,720
Speaker 4: gained three and eighty six to one hundred and fifty five.

652
00:32:43,920 --> 00:32:47,520
Speaker 4: The Giants ran eighty plays, the Bengals ran forty six.

653
00:32:47,960 --> 00:32:50,320
Speaker 4: I said that, how do you win a game? The

654
00:32:50,360 --> 00:32:53,200
Speaker 4: Patriots average three point five yards play, the Bengals average

655
00:32:53,200 --> 00:32:57,040
Speaker 4: three point four and they almost won because of special

656
00:32:57,080 --> 00:33:01,800
Speaker 4: teams and some Giants mistakes. With an eleven first downs

657
00:33:02,080 --> 00:33:04,120
Speaker 4: in the game in one hundred and fifty total yards,

658
00:33:04,120 --> 00:33:07,280
Speaker 4: that's hard to do. And the and the Dolphins have

659
00:33:07,320 --> 00:33:09,640
Speaker 4: a better defense than John So I mean, they're gonna

660
00:33:09,640 --> 00:33:11,440
Speaker 4: bring pressure and brand I don't know what Brandon Down's

661
00:33:11,440 --> 00:33:13,400
Speaker 4: gonna be able to do. And the one thing that

662
00:33:13,480 --> 00:33:16,880
Speaker 4: since he does have that's really good is their special teams.

663
00:33:17,200 --> 00:33:19,320
Speaker 4: Their special teams last year were one of the best

664
00:33:19,360 --> 00:33:22,120
Speaker 4: in the NFL. They're really good again this year. But

665
00:33:22,200 --> 00:33:24,400
Speaker 4: Miami is the best special teams unit in the NFL

666
00:33:24,800 --> 00:33:26,960
Speaker 4: per dd ol ass. So think I have the Ravens

667
00:33:26,960 --> 00:33:29,320
Speaker 4: graded higher, but Miami is a top three unit. Jason

668
00:33:29,360 --> 00:33:32,320
Speaker 4: Sanders been awesome, So like, since he's special, you say

669
00:33:32,320 --> 00:33:34,800
Speaker 4: that miami'sually the special teams that that's really right? Now,

670
00:33:35,200 --> 00:33:37,600
Speaker 4: that's maybe that's how since he's trying to stay in

671
00:33:37,680 --> 00:33:43,160
Speaker 4: games with Brandon Allen as their quarterback. So yeah, I mean,

672
00:33:43,240 --> 00:33:46,240
Speaker 4: I make you have my projet. I think I make

673
00:33:46,280 --> 00:33:50,200
Speaker 4: this line tennis, so I can't. I can't disagree with

674
00:33:50,200 --> 00:33:52,000
Speaker 4: you for the line value, but it's scary you're back

675
00:33:52,120 --> 00:33:53,840
Speaker 4: right now. But yeah, in a total of forty two

676
00:33:53,840 --> 00:33:58,320
Speaker 4: and you're taking eleve an half, I don't hate it.

677
00:33:57,520 --> 00:33:58,880
Speaker 3: Listen, I just look at it this way.

678
00:34:00,040 --> 00:34:02,880
Speaker 5: They can lose seventeen to six and I can cover

679
00:34:02,960 --> 00:34:06,920
Speaker 5: this bet. Like the first of all, Ryan Fitzpatrick is

680
00:34:07,560 --> 00:34:09,600
Speaker 5: due for some mistakes, like as good as he's been playing,

681
00:34:09,840 --> 00:34:11,560
Speaker 5: like this is a quarterback that he's kind of like

682
00:34:11,600 --> 00:34:13,919
Speaker 5: Philip Rivers like he can play well, but it's only

683
00:34:13,960 --> 00:34:14,719
Speaker 5: a matter of time.

684
00:34:15,480 --> 00:34:16,440
Speaker 4: Second of all, I.

685
00:34:16,440 --> 00:34:18,680
Speaker 3: Don't think they've ruled two out actually yet.

686
00:34:18,719 --> 00:34:21,080
Speaker 5: I mean as we record this Wednesday, I'm pretty sure

687
00:34:21,080 --> 00:34:23,160
Speaker 5: they haven't ruled them out yet. I think there were

688
00:34:23,160 --> 00:34:25,960
Speaker 5: reports that they're optimistic he may play, so that's actually

689
00:34:26,040 --> 00:34:29,560
Speaker 5: a positive. But yeah, it's an ugly play, but I

690
00:34:29,560 --> 00:34:32,600
Speaker 5: think it's the right play, and it kind of it

691
00:34:32,680 --> 00:34:35,200
Speaker 5: really sticks out because we haven't gotten too many of

692
00:34:35,200 --> 00:34:38,840
Speaker 5: these this year with the with these you know, totals

693
00:34:38,840 --> 00:34:42,680
Speaker 5: going crazy and teams scoring, we haven't got a lot

694
00:34:42,680 --> 00:34:46,440
Speaker 5: of these, like big underdogs to bet in low total games,

695
00:34:46,480 --> 00:34:49,319
Speaker 5: so always in looking out for these again, over a

696
00:34:49,360 --> 00:34:53,240
Speaker 5: sixty percent hit rate for these ugly you know, eleven

697
00:34:53,280 --> 00:34:56,520
Speaker 5: plus point dogs historically, So I'm riding.

698
00:34:56,320 --> 00:34:59,600
Speaker 4: With yeah, But you also could have Miami just comes

699
00:34:59,640 --> 00:35:04,120
Speaker 4: out logish. It's like streams flat spot right they're they're

700
00:35:04,160 --> 00:35:07,800
Speaker 4: playing the Bengals. The Dolphins right now are seven and four,

701
00:35:08,400 --> 00:35:11,359
Speaker 4: sitting pretty guess who they have left? I'm gonna tell

702
00:35:11,400 --> 00:35:14,799
Speaker 4: you next week Chiefs then host the Pats, then they

703
00:35:14,800 --> 00:35:18,760
Speaker 4: host the Raiders, then they go to Buffalo. Four playoff teams,

704
00:35:18,960 --> 00:35:22,520
Speaker 4: four potential playoff teams in the AFC, with the Chiefs

705
00:35:22,680 --> 00:35:26,040
Speaker 4: hosting the Chiefs next week. So wouldn't shock me if

706
00:35:26,440 --> 00:35:28,799
Speaker 4: the Dolphins come out here and they're very flat.

707
00:35:29,520 --> 00:35:32,759
Speaker 2: After evaluating millions and leases of data in lead link

708
00:35:32,800 --> 00:35:35,880
Speaker 2: of the NIG League gamble Tron two thousands as the

709
00:35:36,120 --> 00:35:45,320
Speaker 2: Runners Cincinnati by two, one hundred points five worthless.

710
00:35:46,120 --> 00:35:48,880
Speaker 4: All right, for my third and final pick of the

711
00:35:48,960 --> 00:35:52,000
Speaker 4: Sunday six pack, it's kind of slim pickens. We didn't

712
00:35:52,000 --> 00:35:55,240
Speaker 4: we have three games. We have two games on Monday

713
00:35:55,280 --> 00:35:58,360
Speaker 4: and one on Tuesday. There's a lot of injury and

714
00:35:58,760 --> 00:36:01,120
Speaker 4: things that I'm waiting on, including this game. But I'm

715
00:36:01,120 --> 00:36:06,280
Speaker 4: gonna take it. I'm gonna take the Detroit Lions loss

716
00:36:06,600 --> 00:36:16,440
Speaker 4: three at the Chicago Bears situationally good spot Bear Bears

717
00:36:16,440 --> 00:36:20,120
Speaker 4: off that Sunday night, you know, loss to Green Bay.

718
00:36:21,040 --> 00:36:23,040
Speaker 4: Lions had a couple extra days of prep. They played

719
00:36:23,040 --> 00:36:26,480
Speaker 4: on Thanksgiving and Lions ever avenge for that game. They

720
00:36:26,480 --> 00:36:27,960
Speaker 4: should have won. Now, but if you look at these

721
00:36:28,000 --> 00:36:31,480
Speaker 4: teams records, I have them power rated pretty similarly. So

722
00:36:31,719 --> 00:36:34,160
Speaker 4: I make this line, you know, division game home field

723
00:36:34,480 --> 00:36:37,200
Speaker 4: not worth that much, especially since Lions had a couple

724
00:36:37,239 --> 00:36:39,200
Speaker 4: extra days of prep. So this game to me is

725
00:36:39,200 --> 00:36:42,000
Speaker 4: a coin flip. Now, there's a lot of injury questions

726
00:36:42,000 --> 00:36:45,240
Speaker 4: for Detroit, which is the one concern here. Is Gallada

727
00:36:45,360 --> 00:36:45,759
Speaker 4: gonna play?

728
00:36:45,800 --> 00:36:46,040
Speaker 3: I don't.

729
00:36:46,040 --> 00:36:50,560
Speaker 4: It doesn't look like he didn't practice to gon On,

730
00:36:50,760 --> 00:36:53,600
Speaker 4: I R Is Swift gonna play? Maybe that would help.

731
00:36:53,840 --> 00:36:58,080
Speaker 5: There's optim Is gonna play, and Amandola also returned to practice,

732
00:36:58,120 --> 00:37:00,759
Speaker 5: So it looks like Galladay is the main question mark

733
00:37:00,880 --> 00:37:03,640
Speaker 5: among the offensive guys.

734
00:37:04,040 --> 00:37:06,480
Speaker 4: Yeah, and then like his Stafford's hand, what's going on?

735
00:37:06,560 --> 00:37:08,600
Speaker 4: I mean, you can they the last three weeks he's

736
00:37:08,600 --> 00:37:11,560
Speaker 4: completed like one pass over twenty yards and that was

737
00:37:11,960 --> 00:37:14,040
Speaker 4: a trick play hacketson last week.

738
00:37:14,360 --> 00:37:17,439
Speaker 5: Well, Martin Jones also I think dropped one, so I mean, yeah,

739
00:37:17,440 --> 00:37:17,919
Speaker 5: that's true.

740
00:37:18,160 --> 00:37:21,280
Speaker 4: But it's just you could see the downfield threat without

741
00:37:21,560 --> 00:37:24,760
Speaker 4: Gallade just isn't there. But uh, will a Keem Hicks

742
00:37:24,800 --> 00:37:27,279
Speaker 4: go for the Bears. That's a huge question because their

743
00:37:27,320 --> 00:37:31,040
Speaker 4: defense without him is he's I think maybe more important

744
00:37:31,040 --> 00:37:35,200
Speaker 4: than Khalil Mack. Khalil Mack is probably better overall, but

745
00:37:35,400 --> 00:37:39,120
Speaker 4: just the interior. You know, you already lost Eddie Goldman.

746
00:37:39,480 --> 00:37:42,279
Speaker 4: I mean you saw Green Bay and when in the

747
00:37:42,280 --> 00:37:44,040
Speaker 4: past when Hicks has been hurt, they haven't had him

748
00:37:44,080 --> 00:37:47,279
Speaker 4: the defense this isn't the same against the running up

749
00:37:47,320 --> 00:37:50,800
Speaker 4: the middle and getting pressure up the middle. So that's

750
00:37:51,160 --> 00:37:53,080
Speaker 4: something to watch. There's a lot of questions here, but

751
00:37:53,280 --> 00:37:55,719
Speaker 4: I make this closer to a pick. It's Mitch Trubisky

752
00:37:55,800 --> 00:37:57,200
Speaker 4: starting Mitch Bortles.

753
00:37:57,320 --> 00:37:59,560
Speaker 3: You've just been bortled, so I.

754
00:37:59,480 --> 00:38:02,240
Speaker 4: Don't mind dating them. I mean, the Bears are five

755
00:38:02,280 --> 00:38:05,879
Speaker 4: and six. They somehow, thanks to like Botch called beat

756
00:38:05,920 --> 00:38:09,239
Speaker 4: the Bucks like by one. But they had a miracle comeback,

757
00:38:09,640 --> 00:38:13,719
Speaker 4: two miracle comebacks early in the year, one against the

758
00:38:13,760 --> 00:38:16,279
Speaker 4: Falcons and another against the Lions. They were down by

759
00:38:16,320 --> 00:38:18,680
Speaker 4: the three touchdowns and the Lions swift dropped a touchdown

760
00:38:18,920 --> 00:38:21,320
Speaker 4: to win it at the end even after all the flukes.

761
00:38:21,520 --> 00:38:25,480
Speaker 4: So the Bears really without three like miracle wins, this

762
00:38:25,560 --> 00:38:30,400
Speaker 4: team is two and nine. That's basically this Bears is.

763
00:38:30,719 --> 00:38:33,600
Speaker 4: The Lions aren't a great team. But again I make

764
00:38:33,640 --> 00:38:36,520
Speaker 4: this a coin flip, and we have a new coach. Uh.

765
00:38:36,920 --> 00:38:39,800
Speaker 4: This is something that I've talked about in the past.

766
00:38:40,000 --> 00:38:42,800
Speaker 4: Per Action Labs database, since twenty and three, thirty teams

767
00:38:42,840 --> 00:38:45,440
Speaker 4: have fired their coach in season, including two this year.

768
00:38:45,719 --> 00:38:47,960
Speaker 4: Those teams have got fourteen and sixteen straight up in

769
00:38:48,000 --> 00:38:50,960
Speaker 4: sixteen to fourteen against the spread. You're saying forty six

770
00:38:51,280 --> 00:38:55,640
Speaker 4: percent straight up win percentage. It's not great, but these

771
00:38:55,680 --> 00:38:59,239
Speaker 4: teams won before the coaching changed twenty seven percent, so

772
00:38:59,280 --> 00:39:02,080
Speaker 4: it's almost twenty percent higher. They also were thirty seven

773
00:39:02,120 --> 00:39:04,400
Speaker 4: percent against the spread before the coaching change and are

774
00:39:04,480 --> 00:39:07,719
Speaker 4: sixteen and fourteen against the spread over those thirty games.

775
00:39:08,120 --> 00:39:10,319
Speaker 4: On average, those teams are about four four point two

776
00:39:10,440 --> 00:39:15,040
Speaker 4: point underdogs, both implied probabilities. If you look at each game,

777
00:39:15,160 --> 00:39:17,280
Speaker 4: they should have won about eleven games. Of those thirty

778
00:39:17,480 --> 00:39:23,000
Speaker 4: they won fourteen, so they won about three games over expectation. Why, well,

779
00:39:23,520 --> 00:39:25,480
Speaker 4: I've first, I don't think any of the players like

780
00:39:25,560 --> 00:39:27,480
Speaker 4: Matt Patricia and he has a burner. By the way,

781
00:39:27,560 --> 00:39:28,920
Speaker 4: have you seen the Matt Patricia burner?

782
00:39:29,160 --> 00:39:29,520
Speaker 2: I have not.

783
00:39:29,680 --> 00:39:30,440
Speaker 3: This sounds amazing.

784
00:39:30,480 --> 00:39:31,319
Speaker 5: Where is it all?

785
00:39:31,400 --> 00:39:33,760
Speaker 4: Right? So someone tweeted, w have you seen the Patricia burner?

786
00:39:34,400 --> 00:39:37,120
Speaker 4: And they mean the name and I looked at it.

787
00:39:37,239 --> 00:39:40,600
Speaker 4: It is clearly Matt Patricia's burner. It's at Eddie p

788
00:39:41,239 --> 00:39:46,600
Speaker 4: e ed d y P Lions fan. And first of all,

789
00:39:46,760 --> 00:39:49,960
Speaker 4: the all of his likes are just people clowning Darius

790
00:39:50,000 --> 00:39:56,520
Speaker 4: Slay in single coverage, and all of his tweets are

791
00:39:56,680 --> 00:40:00,880
Speaker 4: just about how great coach Patricia is and how like

792
00:40:01,320 --> 00:40:04,520
Speaker 4: staff He was recently tweeting how you know they was?

793
00:40:04,880 --> 00:40:06,200
Speaker 4: You just have to read it. I mean, like I

794
00:40:06,280 --> 00:40:09,640
Speaker 4: got why better off moving on? Stafford is uncoachable? Surprise,

795
00:40:09,719 --> 00:40:11,839
Speaker 4: Coach Patricia was right. If the lines, organization, the player

796
00:40:11,880 --> 00:40:13,800
Speaker 4: would have listened, then everything would be different. This is

797
00:40:13,880 --> 00:40:14,480
Speaker 4: two days ago.

798
00:40:15,200 --> 00:40:18,120
Speaker 5: I got one from a yeah, two days November thirtieth.

799
00:40:18,480 --> 00:40:21,480
Speaker 5: The only awful thing was Coach Patricia hitching his wagon

800
00:40:21,560 --> 00:40:23,800
Speaker 5: to an organization like the Detroit Lions.

801
00:40:25,239 --> 00:40:28,279
Speaker 4: Uh slay, he said he tweeted Slay didn't have the

802
00:40:28,360 --> 00:40:33,000
Speaker 4: work ethic to succeed under coach Patricia. And then someone someone,

803
00:40:33,480 --> 00:40:36,520
Speaker 4: Robert Flores says, never forget that time after just scolded

804
00:40:36,520 --> 00:40:40,840
Speaker 4: a reporter for slouching, and then Joseph clip EDDIEP. Lionston responds,

805
00:40:41,040 --> 00:40:43,920
Speaker 4: Coach Patricia has a thing called respect. Maybe that reporter

806
00:40:44,000 --> 00:40:46,359
Speaker 4: should learn some. But it goes all the way back

807
00:40:46,480 --> 00:40:48,880
Speaker 4: until the beginning of September and it's just a Patricia

808
00:40:49,520 --> 00:40:53,200
Speaker 4: uh and he ships on Darius Slay and a Patricia famboick.

809
00:40:53,440 --> 00:40:54,720
Speaker 4: I'm convinced that's his burner.

810
00:40:54,920 --> 00:40:57,480
Speaker 5: We I feel like, you know, we probably piss off

811
00:40:57,600 --> 00:40:59,839
Speaker 5: every team's fan base at some point during this pod

812
00:41:00,120 --> 00:41:02,439
Speaker 5: is were betting against like every team almost at some point.

813
00:41:02,760 --> 00:41:05,880
Speaker 5: But like Lions fans, if you haven't seen this, you

814
00:41:06,080 --> 00:41:08,600
Speaker 5: need to go check it out. I mean, he is

815
00:41:08,760 --> 00:41:11,839
Speaker 5: coming at you and you need to like just blow

816
00:41:11,920 --> 00:41:14,279
Speaker 5: this dude up. Like there's a there's a tweet with

817
00:41:14,440 --> 00:41:16,799
Speaker 5: Lyons fans and air quotes like.

818
00:41:17,239 --> 00:41:19,040
Speaker 3: Go have at it, just go have at it.

819
00:41:19,960 --> 00:41:22,279
Speaker 4: It's great. And yeah, the only likes are just people

820
00:41:22,320 --> 00:41:25,480
Speaker 4: shitting on Darius Slay, which is just ridiculous. More likes

821
00:41:25,480 --> 00:41:30,560
Speaker 4: than wins at least, and uh so, he did like

822
00:41:30,640 --> 00:41:33,000
Speaker 4: a tweet that said Lions fans miss Matt Patricia, bring

823
00:41:33,080 --> 00:41:34,000
Speaker 4: back Matt Patricia.

824
00:41:35,400 --> 00:41:35,600
Speaker 3: Guy.

825
00:41:36,480 --> 00:41:39,200
Speaker 4: Uh so, but I don't think the players liked him,

826
00:41:39,239 --> 00:41:40,960
Speaker 4: so maybe you get an inspired effort here. But the

827
00:41:41,040 --> 00:41:44,040
Speaker 4: main thing that I like about the game the first

828
00:41:44,120 --> 00:41:46,319
Speaker 4: game after and I mean, look look what at him

829
00:41:46,320 --> 00:41:50,160
Speaker 4: with the Falcons went out and buried the Vikings and

830
00:41:50,280 --> 00:41:53,759
Speaker 4: the Texans covered against the Jags. But the one thing

831
00:41:53,840 --> 00:41:55,279
Speaker 4: that I like, and both teams have been a lot

832
00:41:55,360 --> 00:41:57,920
Speaker 4: better since. And I agree with those coaching changes and

833
00:41:57,960 --> 00:41:59,719
Speaker 4: I agree with this one, but the main thing I

834
00:41:59,800 --> 00:42:02,600
Speaker 4: like at the first game back, it's just I've been

835
00:42:02,640 --> 00:42:04,239
Speaker 4: screwed with The Lions need to do more than their

836
00:42:04,280 --> 00:42:06,520
Speaker 4: basic defense. So I think you might see some more

837
00:42:06,560 --> 00:42:09,160
Speaker 4: exotic play calls on defense because it's a decimated defensive,

838
00:42:09,160 --> 00:42:10,440
Speaker 4: you knowit. They got a blitz more, they got to

839
00:42:10,480 --> 00:42:12,920
Speaker 4: try some different things. But it's just that you're going

840
00:42:13,000 --> 00:42:15,200
Speaker 4: to not have as much tendencies, right, you have a

841
00:42:15,320 --> 00:42:17,680
Speaker 4: new coach. You can try different things that you wanted

842
00:42:17,719 --> 00:42:20,719
Speaker 4: to try that Matt Patricia wasn't driving, so that that

843
00:42:20,880 --> 00:42:23,960
Speaker 4: team that you're playing isn't prepared for and you have

844
00:42:24,000 --> 00:42:26,080
Speaker 4: a little extra time to prep here too after a

845
00:42:26,120 --> 00:42:28,200
Speaker 4: Thanksgiving game, So I think that's where it works in

846
00:42:28,280 --> 00:42:31,080
Speaker 4: your favor. The first game after coaching changes, you can

847
00:42:31,200 --> 00:42:33,880
Speaker 4: kind of change up your tendencies because you're naturally going

848
00:42:33,920 --> 00:42:35,880
Speaker 4: to do some different things as a new coach. So

849
00:42:35,920 --> 00:42:37,239
Speaker 4: give me the lines plus three game and make a

850
00:42:37,320 --> 00:42:40,160
Speaker 4: coin flip. A lot of injuries that will keep your

851
00:42:40,160 --> 00:42:40,920
Speaker 4: eye on throughout the week.

852
00:42:41,640 --> 00:42:45,160
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean, Matt Patricia is probably responsible for Mitch

853
00:42:45,239 --> 00:42:49,160
Speaker 5: Krubisky looking like a professional quarterback because the Lions have

854
00:42:49,280 --> 00:42:52,520
Speaker 5: really been the only team he's had success against on

855
00:42:52,560 --> 00:42:56,160
Speaker 5: any type of consistent basis, and now he's gone, so

856
00:42:56,840 --> 00:42:59,319
Speaker 5: you know, I mean, I've heard rumors that maybe they'll

857
00:42:59,320 --> 00:43:01,000
Speaker 5: go back to full so we don't even know what's

858
00:43:01,000 --> 00:43:04,760
Speaker 5: going on. But this Bears team, I mean, even against

859
00:43:04,760 --> 00:43:07,319
Speaker 5: a team like the Lions, assuming their defense is still

860
00:43:07,440 --> 00:43:11,839
Speaker 5: just as bad as with Patricia, you still question where

861
00:43:11,880 --> 00:43:15,479
Speaker 5: they're gonna come up with enough points to win the game.

862
00:43:15,560 --> 00:43:17,320
Speaker 5: And now they don't have to just win, they have

863
00:43:17,360 --> 00:43:20,680
Speaker 5: to they actually actually cover. And as good as their defenses,

864
00:43:20,800 --> 00:43:22,160
Speaker 5: the Bears are just one of those teams that you

865
00:43:22,200 --> 00:43:24,160
Speaker 5: look at them and you're like this team is not

866
00:43:24,200 --> 00:43:26,360
Speaker 5: supposed to really be favored against anybody right now, like

867
00:43:26,440 --> 00:43:30,600
Speaker 5: this is this is a team that's struggling to compete

868
00:43:30,960 --> 00:43:33,920
Speaker 5: because of how bad their offense is. So yeah, I

869
00:43:34,160 --> 00:43:37,800
Speaker 5: like this spot, and I thought about taking it earlier,

870
00:43:38,640 --> 00:43:40,839
Speaker 5: but I did like the other two picks. I did

871
00:43:40,920 --> 00:43:44,640
Speaker 5: have more of an edge numbers wise, so I risked it.

872
00:43:44,760 --> 00:43:46,600
Speaker 5: And of course you took it with your third pick.

873
00:43:46,960 --> 00:43:50,239
Speaker 5: And so I did that with the knowledge that because

874
00:43:50,239 --> 00:43:52,160
Speaker 5: it is kind of slim pickings this week, especially because

875
00:43:52,160 --> 00:43:56,719
Speaker 5: we have a multiple Monday games, but I knew in my.

876
00:43:56,840 --> 00:44:01,840
Speaker 4: Back pocket that I would have wait, wit, let me

877
00:44:01,920 --> 00:44:03,680
Speaker 4: just throw this third one thick out there by. The

878
00:44:03,719 --> 00:44:06,120
Speaker 4: Bears started out five and one. They're five and six.

879
00:44:06,480 --> 00:44:09,279
Speaker 4: ABE won one game all year by more than four

880
00:44:09,360 --> 00:44:12,719
Speaker 4: points one and that was against the Panthers in a

881
00:44:12,719 --> 00:44:15,200
Speaker 4: game they're out game they gave four point nine yards

882
00:44:15,239 --> 00:44:17,080
Speaker 4: play average four yards per play. It was a coin

883
00:44:17,120 --> 00:44:20,040
Speaker 4: flip game. One game that was it. So this team

884
00:44:20,120 --> 00:44:22,520
Speaker 4: is either lost or like won by one or two

885
00:44:22,600 --> 00:44:23,200
Speaker 4: on prayers.

886
00:44:23,760 --> 00:44:29,080
Speaker 3: Like the Bears, they have major major issues on the

887
00:44:29,160 --> 00:44:30,040
Speaker 3: offensive side.

888
00:44:29,800 --> 00:44:30,080
Speaker 1: Of the ball.

889
00:44:31,640 --> 00:44:33,120
Speaker 6: I will shame.

890
00:44:38,600 --> 00:44:52,960
Speaker 3: And I went hello, hello de trye. I knew that

891
00:44:53,280 --> 00:44:54,600
Speaker 3: I had in my back pocket.

892
00:44:55,120 --> 00:44:58,640
Speaker 5: Uh, the third and final pick, the sixth pick of

893
00:44:58,760 --> 00:45:01,600
Speaker 5: the Sunday six pack, Mike and final pick, and that's

894
00:45:01,680 --> 00:45:04,960
Speaker 5: gonna be the New England Patriots plus one at bet

895
00:45:05,120 --> 00:45:07,320
Speaker 5: MGM against the LA Chargers.

896
00:45:07,440 --> 00:45:08,920
Speaker 3: And it's as simple as this.

897
00:45:09,160 --> 00:45:11,640
Speaker 5: I have this as a coin flip game. All I

898
00:45:11,719 --> 00:45:15,520
Speaker 5: have to do to cover is essentially, have the Patriots

899
00:45:15,560 --> 00:45:20,359
Speaker 5: beat the Chargers. Now, the Chargers, they probably should beat

900
00:45:20,400 --> 00:45:23,319
Speaker 5: the Patriots. They're at home, right, but you look, first

901
00:45:23,360 --> 00:45:26,600
Speaker 5: of all, LA home field doesn't mean much in general.

902
00:45:26,920 --> 00:45:30,800
Speaker 5: Chargers home field especially means nothing. But the Chargers have

903
00:45:30,880 --> 00:45:35,279
Speaker 5: beat the Bengals, the Jaguars, and the Jets. They've lost

904
00:45:35,320 --> 00:45:38,320
Speaker 5: to everybody else. Now, granted some good competition, but this

905
00:45:38,560 --> 00:45:42,600
Speaker 5: extends to multiple quarterbacks under Anthony Win. Like, this is

906
00:45:42,680 --> 00:45:46,440
Speaker 5: not just a twenty twenty thing, a justin Herbert thing.

907
00:45:47,200 --> 00:45:50,200
Speaker 5: It's amazing that they've played twenty one score games over

908
00:45:50,239 --> 00:45:52,719
Speaker 5: the last two seasons. That's twenty one score games. Over

909
00:45:52,800 --> 00:45:56,440
Speaker 5: their past twenty seven games. They are four and sixteen

910
00:45:56,719 --> 00:45:59,759
Speaker 5: in one score games. And usually I'm betting on that

911
00:45:59,840 --> 00:46:02,759
Speaker 5: to turn around. But there are certain coaches in this league.

912
00:46:03,280 --> 00:46:05,680
Speaker 5: Some of them fired already some of them, not Anthony

913
00:46:05,760 --> 00:46:09,480
Speaker 5: Wins one of them that aren't. They're good motivators, sometimes

914
00:46:09,520 --> 00:46:11,960
Speaker 5: they're good players coaches. That was the case with dan Quinn.

915
00:46:12,680 --> 00:46:15,080
Speaker 5: Patricia not so much. He's just kind of bad in

916
00:46:15,200 --> 00:46:18,319
Speaker 5: all areas. But you know, dan Quinn was a player's coach.

917
00:46:18,760 --> 00:46:21,760
Speaker 5: You know, guys like him, Guys would you know, practice

918
00:46:21,800 --> 00:46:24,360
Speaker 5: hard for him, this and that, but team time for

919
00:46:24,440 --> 00:46:27,600
Speaker 5: game time and the preparation wasn't there. The in game

920
00:46:27,680 --> 00:46:30,960
Speaker 5: decision making, the management wasn't there. And you're seeing that

921
00:46:31,040 --> 00:46:33,960
Speaker 5: same thing with Anthony Winn. Like he's a great motivator,

922
00:46:34,040 --> 00:46:36,560
Speaker 5: he's got good relationships with the players, but it just

923
00:46:36,680 --> 00:46:40,960
Speaker 5: does not translate on the football field. And again, this

924
00:46:41,120 --> 00:46:43,400
Speaker 5: is most like if this was just any two teams,

925
00:46:43,680 --> 00:46:46,560
Speaker 5: this would probably be a stay away. But it's Anthony

926
00:46:46,640 --> 00:46:49,680
Speaker 5: Winn going against Bill Belichick. Like this is the coaching

927
00:46:49,760 --> 00:46:53,400
Speaker 5: mismatch of coaching mismatches. He's nine and seventeen is Anthony

928
00:46:53,440 --> 00:46:57,760
Speaker 5: Winn against the spread at home in LA in his tenure,

929
00:46:58,000 --> 00:47:01,359
Speaker 5: including seven and fourteen against the spread just thirty three

930
00:47:01,440 --> 00:47:06,719
Speaker 5: percent as a favorite at home in LA and at

931
00:47:06,760 --> 00:47:09,200
Speaker 5: the plus one and this line, I've seen it anywhere

932
00:47:09,239 --> 00:47:13,880
Speaker 5: from Pats minus one to plus one minus one fifteen

933
00:47:13,920 --> 00:47:16,000
Speaker 5: at bet MGM. The officials pride of the pod, so

934
00:47:16,320 --> 00:47:20,560
Speaker 5: shop around. But I like this like at a pick

935
00:47:20,719 --> 00:47:23,080
Speaker 5: or better, love it. You know, if you're taking the

936
00:47:23,120 --> 00:47:27,160
Speaker 5: Pats minus one, don't hate it, but love it, pick

937
00:47:27,360 --> 00:47:27,719
Speaker 5: or better.

938
00:47:28,360 --> 00:47:31,400
Speaker 3: All I have to do to cover this number is

939
00:47:31,480 --> 00:47:34,440
Speaker 3: for Anthony Win to lose another close game. All day.

940
00:47:34,560 --> 00:47:35,480
Speaker 3: Give me that all day.

941
00:47:36,360 --> 00:47:38,279
Speaker 4: Yeah, I can't disagree that. I mean, I people are

942
00:47:38,280 --> 00:47:41,560
Speaker 4: always asking them about coaching. I have coaching build into

943
00:47:42,480 --> 00:47:45,359
Speaker 4: my power. It's like I will I will downgrade teams

944
00:47:45,400 --> 00:47:48,120
Speaker 4: if they're just getting if their coach is just performing

945
00:47:48,160 --> 00:47:50,040
Speaker 4: really poorly expens and I've done that for the Chargers.

946
00:47:50,040 --> 00:47:52,520
Speaker 4: They just time and time again at these late game situations,

947
00:47:52,600 --> 00:47:55,239
Speaker 4: time management. And then Patriots get a bump for having

948
00:47:55,280 --> 00:47:58,080
Speaker 4: Bill Belichick. But so I make this game up pick

949
00:47:58,200 --> 00:48:02,719
Speaker 4: so I can't get there. But I don't hate it.

950
00:48:02,719 --> 00:48:04,279
Speaker 4: I mean, just the Patriots are really bad. I mean

951
00:48:04,320 --> 00:48:07,960
Speaker 4: they're like bottom three and all these defensive metrics. They

952
00:48:08,040 --> 00:48:10,040
Speaker 4: can't throw the ball. Now, the one thing you work

953
00:48:10,080 --> 00:48:12,480
Speaker 4: in your favorite the Charter's run defense has been horrible.

954
00:48:12,560 --> 00:48:15,840
Speaker 4: Thirty first, the NFL DVA. They're like thirtieth and running

955
00:48:15,840 --> 00:48:19,000
Speaker 4: backyards thirtieth and second level yards twenty six and adjusted

956
00:48:19,080 --> 00:48:22,040
Speaker 4: lineyards twenty ninth and open field yards. Basically, they're getting

957
00:48:22,120 --> 00:48:24,640
Speaker 4: no push and then they can't tackle you after you

958
00:48:24,680 --> 00:48:26,400
Speaker 4: get past the line of scrivage, and then you can

959
00:48:26,480 --> 00:48:28,400
Speaker 4: go for ten to fifteen yards. So I think the

960
00:48:28,480 --> 00:48:31,160
Speaker 4: Patriots can take advantage of that. But I do want

961
00:48:31,200 --> 00:48:33,120
Speaker 4: to just shout out Justin Herbert Man. I mean, he

962
00:48:33,239 --> 00:48:35,920
Speaker 4: has been pressured on thirty six percent of his dropbacks.

963
00:48:35,960 --> 00:48:39,280
Speaker 4: That's ten, top ten highest rate in the NFL ninety

964
00:48:39,360 --> 00:48:43,440
Speaker 4: eight quarterback rating. That's number one of thirty nine quarterbacks

965
00:48:43,560 --> 00:48:45,920
Speaker 4: with one hundred drop backs. This is when your quarterback

966
00:48:46,200 --> 00:48:49,520
Speaker 4: is NFL ready, when they're under pressure. He's a rookie

967
00:48:50,000 --> 00:48:54,319
Speaker 4: seventy five percent adjusted completion percentage under pressure, fourth, only

968
00:48:54,440 --> 00:48:58,879
Speaker 4: sacked on thirteen percent of his dropbacks. That's thirtieth. That's

969
00:48:58,960 --> 00:49:01,439
Speaker 4: good to be thirtieth, so he's not taking too many sacks.

970
00:49:01,480 --> 00:49:05,279
Speaker 4: Eight touchdowns, two picks. The guy's the real deal. But yeah,

971
00:49:05,800 --> 00:49:08,279
Speaker 4: i'd make this a coin flip if your reasoning is

972
00:49:08,440 --> 00:49:11,440
Speaker 4: Anthony Lenn's gonna fuck it up. The Patriots. Also the

973
00:49:11,440 --> 00:49:13,239
Speaker 4: Patriots special team is gonna be a lot better. The

974
00:49:13,640 --> 00:49:16,439
Speaker 4: Chargers special teams are also disaster. So the Patriots could

975
00:49:16,440 --> 00:49:19,880
Speaker 4: win this game simply with by out executing the Chargers

976
00:49:19,920 --> 00:49:24,320
Speaker 4: from a strategic perspective and coaching decisions and special teams,

977
00:49:24,880 --> 00:49:26,800
Speaker 4: which is what happened last week against the Cardinals.

978
00:49:27,040 --> 00:49:29,120
Speaker 3: I mean, like you just you just kind of hit

979
00:49:29,160 --> 00:49:31,359
Speaker 3: the nail on the head, like, look at how good

980
00:49:31,520 --> 00:49:32,239
Speaker 3: Justin Herbert's been.

981
00:49:32,320 --> 00:49:34,879
Speaker 5: And by the way, hopefully if you read my piece

982
00:49:34,880 --> 00:49:36,520
Speaker 5: a couple of weeks ago on the Rookie of the

983
00:49:36,680 --> 00:49:40,279
Speaker 5: Year race, got kind of lucky but definitely recommended that

984
00:49:40,400 --> 00:49:44,880
Speaker 5: Herbert was the top value by a landslide for that award.

985
00:49:45,000 --> 00:49:47,000
Speaker 5: And you know, next week Burgough gets hurt and two

986
00:49:47,000 --> 00:49:49,279
Speaker 5: wigets bench, so should be looking good there.

987
00:49:49,400 --> 00:49:51,240
Speaker 3: But it's inexplicable.

988
00:49:51,680 --> 00:49:55,359
Speaker 5: Justin Herbert has been amazing under pressure where most Rocky

989
00:49:55,440 --> 00:50:00,759
Speaker 5: quarterbacks struggled. Keenan Allen dog walks defensive back every time

990
00:50:00,800 --> 00:50:02,719
Speaker 5: he runs a route. You have one of the better

991
00:50:02,840 --> 00:50:05,680
Speaker 5: tight ends in the week. You have, you know, a

992
00:50:05,800 --> 00:50:09,080
Speaker 5: big body number two. You have talent everywhere on defense too,

993
00:50:09,840 --> 00:50:12,640
Speaker 5: Like that defense has talent. There's no reason that defense

994
00:50:12,680 --> 00:50:15,320
Speaker 5: shouldn't be in the top half of the week. And

995
00:50:15,480 --> 00:50:19,200
Speaker 5: yet justin Herbert playing out of his mind, talent everywhere

996
00:50:19,239 --> 00:50:21,880
Speaker 5: on both sides of the ball, and you can't beat anybody,

997
00:50:22,200 --> 00:50:24,719
Speaker 5: and you can't win a close game. There's only one way,

998
00:50:24,760 --> 00:50:27,080
Speaker 5: there's only one place to point. So, uh, you know,

999
00:50:27,320 --> 00:50:29,520
Speaker 5: we're getting to that point in the season where you

1000
00:50:29,640 --> 00:50:33,640
Speaker 5: can't target Bill Bill O'Brien, we can't target Dan Quinn,

1001
00:50:33,760 --> 00:50:36,600
Speaker 5: we can't even target Matt Patricia. I actually think this

1002
00:50:36,719 --> 00:50:38,600
Speaker 5: is a good Adam Gaate spot this week. So not

1003
00:50:38,680 --> 00:50:41,839
Speaker 5: even not even fading Gates this week. So uh, there's

1004
00:50:41,960 --> 00:50:44,760
Speaker 5: swim pickens. In terms of the coaches, we can reliably fade.

1005
00:50:44,760 --> 00:50:47,440
Speaker 5: But Anthony Winn thirty three percent as a home favorite

1006
00:50:47,480 --> 00:50:48,000
Speaker 5: in La.

1007
00:50:48,120 --> 00:50:51,319
Speaker 4: The fucking money Badger, the kicker fall. We can't make

1008
00:50:51,360 --> 00:50:51,759
Speaker 4: a cat.

1009
00:50:53,440 --> 00:50:54,200
Speaker 3: Sports all right?

1010
00:50:55,040 --> 00:50:58,359
Speaker 5: That does it for the week thirteen Sunday, six packs

1011
00:50:58,400 --> 00:51:04,480
Speaker 5: stuck Atlanta plus three, Philly plus nine, and the Lions

1012
00:51:04,600 --> 00:51:08,400
Speaker 5: plus three. I'm going Cardinals plus three, Bengals plus eleven

1013
00:51:08,400 --> 00:51:12,200
Speaker 5: and a half and the Patriots as a mere one

1014
00:51:12,520 --> 00:51:17,480
Speaker 5: point underdog. Oh and speaking of Anthony Wynn, it's a

1015
00:51:17,520 --> 00:51:19,120
Speaker 5: good time for our coaches.

1016
00:51:20,080 --> 00:51:20,640
Speaker 3: Pep Talk.

1017
00:51:21,200 --> 00:51:23,440
Speaker 5: This week's Coaches pep Talk comes to us from the

1018
00:51:23,520 --> 00:51:27,360
Speaker 5: nineteen seventy nine football movie The North Dallas forty, and

1019
00:51:27,480 --> 00:51:29,960
Speaker 5: we're dedicating it to Anthony Winn.

1020
00:51:30,760 --> 00:51:33,239
Speaker 4: You don't listen what a won if we started those

1021
00:51:33,320 --> 00:51:37,040
Speaker 4: tendenciessh You never give us anything to bring in the

1022
00:51:37,120 --> 00:51:40,920
Speaker 4: game except your facts and tendencies. You're supposed to be

1023
00:51:40,960 --> 00:51:41,480
Speaker 4: a professional.

1024
00:51:41,560 --> 00:51:42,040
Speaker 3: You're gone there.

1025
00:51:42,760 --> 00:51:45,080
Speaker 4: Wore work card than anybody to win. But man, when

1026
00:51:45,120 --> 00:51:47,360
Speaker 4: we're dead tired in the fourth quarter, winners gotta be

1027
00:51:47,440 --> 00:51:49,759
Speaker 4: more than just money. They're hired to do a job.

1028
00:51:49,920 --> 00:51:52,600
Speaker 7: Job, job. I don't want no job. I want to

1029
00:51:52,600 --> 00:51:56,399
Speaker 7: play football. You, oh, I want some feelings. I want

1030
00:51:56,480 --> 00:51:59,719
Speaker 7: some team spirits. Let's hanging out high school. If you

1031
00:51:59,760 --> 00:52:01,520
Speaker 7: don't have to love each other to play, it's just

1032
00:52:01,640 --> 00:52:03,560
Speaker 7: what I mean. You and all the rest of you

1033
00:52:03,680 --> 00:52:07,359
Speaker 7: coaches are chicken beckers, no feeling for the game at all.

1034
00:52:07,480 --> 00:52:10,040
Speaker 3: Man, you'll win, but I just be numbers on the scoreboard.

1035
00:52:10,120 --> 00:52:11,480
Speaker 4: Numbers that's all you care about.

1036
00:52:12,120 --> 00:52:16,120
Speaker 3: Man, that's not enough for me. You gotta listen to

1037
00:52:16,200 --> 00:52:19,120
Speaker 3: me for checking suckers.

1038
00:52:19,400 --> 00:52:24,200
Speaker 5: Scott, damn you, And just a reminder, if you want

1039
00:52:24,320 --> 00:52:27,440
Speaker 5: to see all of the picks. You can download the

1040
00:52:27,560 --> 00:52:30,239
Speaker 5: Action Network app, or if you already have it, just

1041
00:52:30,480 --> 00:52:34,520
Speaker 5: follow at Sunday at six Pack and we usually have

1042
00:52:34,640 --> 00:52:36,080
Speaker 5: the picks posted.

1043
00:52:36,520 --> 00:52:39,600
Speaker 3: By the end of the week so you can go

1044
00:52:40,080 --> 00:52:40,720
Speaker 3: follow along.

1045
00:52:40,800 --> 00:52:43,480
Speaker 5: You can follow me at Chris Raybond and Stucky at

1046
00:52:43,840 --> 00:52:46,680
Speaker 5: Stucky two uh and of course track all your bets

1047
00:52:47,160 --> 00:52:49,720
Speaker 5: on the app as well, so just search for Sunday

1048
00:52:49,760 --> 00:52:53,600
Speaker 5: six Pack and the Action Networks apps follow feature for

1049
00:52:53,920 --> 00:52:59,840
Speaker 5: that and to everybody looking to get action down this weekend,

1050
00:53:00,080 --> 00:53:02,920
Speaker 5: betmgm has a great sign up offer for week thirteen.

1051
00:53:03,000 --> 00:53:05,080
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1052
00:53:05,160 --> 00:53:08,040
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1053
00:53:08,200 --> 00:53:10,600
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1054
00:53:10,640 --> 00:53:13,960
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1055
00:53:14,160 --> 00:53:17,160
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1056
00:53:17,280 --> 00:53:19,359
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1057
00:53:19,520 --> 00:53:21,759
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1058
00:53:21,840 --> 00:53:25,840
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1059
00:53:25,880 --> 00:53:27,480
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1060
00:53:27,520 --> 00:53:30,040
Speaker 5: and physically located in Colorado, Indiana, New Jersey, Nevada, or

1061
00:53:30,080 --> 00:53:33,239
Speaker 5: West Virginia. Please gamble responsibly gambling problem call one eight

1062
00:53:33,320 --> 00:53:35,960
Speaker 5: hundred five to two four seven zero zero in Colorado

1063
00:53:36,000 --> 00:53:38,440
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1064
00:53:38,640 --> 00:53:42,200
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1065
00:53:42,640 --> 00:53:46,480
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1066
00:53:47,320 --> 00:53:50,080
Speaker 5: our favorite over under play of the week. It stuck

1067
00:53:50,480 --> 00:53:53,399
Speaker 5: so you had the number one pick in the six

1068
00:53:53,480 --> 00:53:57,200
Speaker 5: pack This week, I'll go first in this segment. I

1069
00:53:57,280 --> 00:54:04,520
Speaker 5: am going with the under fifty one and a half Houston, Indianapolis.

1070
00:54:05,280 --> 00:54:06,280
Speaker 3: A couple of reasons.

1071
00:54:06,560 --> 00:54:10,360
Speaker 5: Number one, Will Fuller, the dream is over. He is

1072
00:54:10,440 --> 00:54:12,240
Speaker 5: suspended for the rest of the season.

1073
00:54:12,320 --> 00:54:15,000
Speaker 3: Go figure. He doesn't get hurt, but he's taking PDS.

1074
00:54:15,520 --> 00:54:16,840
Speaker 4: So poor Leviton.

1075
00:54:17,960 --> 00:54:18,880
Speaker 3: What did Levitton have?

1076
00:54:19,560 --> 00:54:21,840
Speaker 4: He started talking. He was I think he has a

1077
00:54:21,920 --> 00:54:24,839
Speaker 4: bet on a season long bet with somebody on who

1078
00:54:24,840 --> 00:54:29,399
Speaker 4: has more Fantasy points, Will Fuller or Hollywood Brown. Oh shit,

1079
00:54:29,440 --> 00:54:33,840
Speaker 4: who had Hollywood? But he but but On Sunday he

1080
00:54:33,960 --> 00:54:39,520
Speaker 4: was tweeting out because injury like the grave tweet They

1081
00:54:39,600 --> 00:54:42,840
Speaker 4: saying like people who call injury Twitter And he's basically

1082
00:54:42,920 --> 00:54:45,040
Speaker 4: celebrating his win. And then two days later it was

1083
00:54:45,040 --> 00:54:49,239
Speaker 4: announced that will Fuller and Roby. Someone asked me, what's

1084
00:54:49,680 --> 00:54:51,480
Speaker 4: who's their best corner? Someone asked me, what's in the

1085
00:54:51,520 --> 00:54:53,520
Speaker 4: water down there? And I said on Twitter, I said,

1086
00:54:53,560 --> 00:54:55,200
Speaker 4: I don't know, but whatever is in the water, Brian

1087
00:54:55,280 --> 00:54:56,359
Speaker 4: Cushing is putting it in there.

1088
00:54:56,400 --> 00:55:01,640
Speaker 5: He's I agree, going with the under in this game

1089
00:55:01,719 --> 00:55:04,920
Speaker 5: because not only does de Shaun Watson not have Will Fuller,

1090
00:55:05,080 --> 00:55:07,320
Speaker 5: he also does not have Kenny Stills, who they waived

1091
00:55:07,320 --> 00:55:09,840
Speaker 5: I guess right before they found out that Fuller was

1092
00:55:09,840 --> 00:55:12,560
Speaker 5: gonna miss the rest of the year, and Randall Cobb

1093
00:55:12,680 --> 00:55:13,160
Speaker 5: is still out.

1094
00:55:13,320 --> 00:55:16,120
Speaker 3: So Fuller and Stills in particular, and I've talked.

1095
00:55:15,880 --> 00:55:18,640
Speaker 5: About this in regard to totals, but you kind of

1096
00:55:18,640 --> 00:55:20,319
Speaker 5: saw it play out in the Steelers Ravens game.

1097
00:55:20,320 --> 00:55:21,520
Speaker 3: When you have a team.

1098
00:55:22,800 --> 00:55:26,200
Speaker 5: You can kind of get more underneath passes and wom

1099
00:55:26,280 --> 00:55:28,520
Speaker 5: at the average yet the target, it's gonna help the

1100
00:55:28,520 --> 00:55:30,479
Speaker 5: game go under because you don't want, you know, chunk

1101
00:55:30,520 --> 00:55:34,280
Speaker 5: plays and quick scores and things like that. Fuller eleven

1102
00:55:34,520 --> 00:55:38,160
Speaker 5: point one yards on average before the catcher per reception,

1103
00:55:38,600 --> 00:55:43,200
Speaker 5: Kenny Stills eleven point five. They were number one and

1104
00:55:43,280 --> 00:55:46,920
Speaker 5: number two on the Texans in that metric, and they

1105
00:55:47,040 --> 00:55:50,960
Speaker 5: combined for over a quarter of the team's receptions. Everyone

1106
00:55:51,040 --> 00:55:54,000
Speaker 5: else is in the mids, you know, sixes and sevens

1107
00:55:54,160 --> 00:55:55,440
Speaker 5: in average yards before catch.

1108
00:55:55,560 --> 00:55:59,040
Speaker 3: This is a major downgrade in terms of, you know, Watson's.

1109
00:55:58,640 --> 00:56:01,040
Speaker 5: Ability to get the ball down on the football field

1110
00:56:01,680 --> 00:56:04,080
Speaker 5: with now you're talking about Kiki Qt, a guy who's

1111
00:56:04,560 --> 00:56:06,960
Speaker 5: gonna do most of his work, you know, underneath, and

1112
00:56:07,440 --> 00:56:09,799
Speaker 5: then a bunch of unproven guys or tight ends whoever

1113
00:56:09,840 --> 00:56:13,080
Speaker 5: they choose to kind of throw in behind them. You know,

1114
00:56:13,280 --> 00:56:15,840
Speaker 5: between Fuller, Stills and Cobb, forty one percent of the

1115
00:56:15,880 --> 00:56:18,640
Speaker 5: team's catches. David Johnson will see about him, but that

1116
00:56:18,680 --> 00:56:21,480
Speaker 5: would you know, increase that even more. Just short on

1117
00:56:21,800 --> 00:56:24,120
Speaker 5: skill weapons for Watson. And then you go to in

1118
00:56:24,440 --> 00:56:26,760
Speaker 5: Indie side and you know they have a good defense.

1119
00:56:26,760 --> 00:56:29,920
Speaker 5: They should be getting some guys back on defense. But

1120
00:56:30,400 --> 00:56:35,280
Speaker 5: on the offensive line, Anthony Costanzo, the left tackle sprained NCL.

1121
00:56:34,960 --> 00:56:38,040
Speaker 3: Does not look like he's going to play this week.

1122
00:56:38,120 --> 00:56:41,759
Speaker 5: He's ranked tenth of eighty five qualified tackles and pass

1123
00:56:41,800 --> 00:56:45,520
Speaker 5: blocking by Pro Football Focus. So you know, you did

1124
00:56:45,600 --> 00:56:48,319
Speaker 5: not really a team that you're scared of in terms

1125
00:56:48,360 --> 00:56:51,120
Speaker 5: of pressure. But Anthony Kastan's are one of the best

1126
00:56:51,200 --> 00:56:54,200
Speaker 5: tackles in the game, so that hurts. And the center

1127
00:56:54,280 --> 00:56:57,759
Speaker 5: Ryan Kelly, also dealing with a neck injury, missed last game.

1128
00:56:58,280 --> 00:56:59,879
Speaker 3: We'll see if he can go this week.

1129
00:57:00,040 --> 00:57:04,919
Speaker 5: But just kind of some key pieces missing on both

1130
00:57:05,040 --> 00:57:09,640
Speaker 5: sides that don't warrant this game. It's essentially being projected

1131
00:57:09,719 --> 00:57:12,080
Speaker 5: as if this is the same these teams are at

1132
00:57:12,120 --> 00:57:13,919
Speaker 5: full strength, which is not the case.

1133
00:57:14,239 --> 00:57:15,840
Speaker 4: Yeah, I agree with you. I mean, will Forward just

1134
00:57:15,920 --> 00:57:19,440
Speaker 4: took the top off that offense and it's just a

1135
00:57:19,560 --> 00:57:23,560
Speaker 4: huge loss, especially that you let Stills go and the

1136
00:57:24,040 --> 00:57:27,840
Speaker 4: Colts defense will get Buckner, should get Buckner back, solid defense,

1137
00:57:27,960 --> 00:57:31,720
Speaker 4: and their offense is just I know that losing Robie

1138
00:57:31,720 --> 00:57:34,080
Speaker 4: will hurt the Texans defense, but the Colts aren't going

1139
00:57:34,160 --> 00:57:37,600
Speaker 4: to value offensively, so I agree with you there. I

1140
00:57:37,680 --> 00:57:40,960
Speaker 4: probably will have some of myself for my favorite total

1141
00:57:41,040 --> 00:57:43,320
Speaker 4: of the week. I am going if hit a couple

1142
00:57:43,400 --> 00:57:45,400
Speaker 4: totals in a row, try to keep it going, and

1143
00:57:45,520 --> 00:57:47,480
Speaker 4: a lot of them have been I'm going to go

1144
00:57:47,600 --> 00:57:49,919
Speaker 4: right back to the well here for the third week

1145
00:57:49,960 --> 00:57:54,640
Speaker 4: in a row. The Seattle Seahawks New York Football Giants

1146
00:57:54,840 --> 00:57:56,720
Speaker 4: under forty six and a half. I think the Seahawks

1147
00:57:56,760 --> 00:57:59,200
Speaker 4: were like seven to zero to the over to start

1148
00:57:59,240 --> 00:58:01,680
Speaker 4: the year, I hit the under and back to back weeks.

1149
00:58:01,880 --> 00:58:04,440
Speaker 4: I'm going again. I think that you're going to see

1150
00:58:04,480 --> 00:58:07,680
Speaker 4: the Seattle offense trend more conservatively the rest of the year.

1151
00:58:08,240 --> 00:58:11,160
Speaker 4: Pete Carroll got his wish you know you had. Russe

1152
00:58:11,200 --> 00:58:14,040
Speaker 4: Wilson had a couple really bad games and he said, look,

1153
00:58:14,040 --> 00:58:15,520
Speaker 4: we got to go back to running. It will go

1154
00:58:15,560 --> 00:58:18,640
Speaker 4: to more twelve personnel. It hasn't been as bad as

1155
00:58:18,680 --> 00:58:20,640
Speaker 4: it has been in the past the past couple of weeks,

1156
00:58:20,680 --> 00:58:22,200
Speaker 4: but I just think that's where they're trending. I also

1157
00:58:22,240 --> 00:58:24,280
Speaker 4: think the defense is trending up. The defense is starting

1158
00:58:24,560 --> 00:58:27,760
Speaker 4: to figure some things out, and it's cold McCoy for

1159
00:58:27,840 --> 00:58:29,600
Speaker 4: the Giants. I don't know how they're really going to

1160
00:58:29,640 --> 00:58:30,920
Speaker 4: move the ball. A lot of how the Giants move

1161
00:58:30,960 --> 00:58:34,080
Speaker 4: the ball. People shot on Daniel Jones, but like he

1162
00:58:34,320 --> 00:58:37,920
Speaker 4: just creates and yes, he will run for key third downs,

1163
00:58:37,960 --> 00:58:40,800
Speaker 4: And I mean that's their offense, isn't their offense? Live

1164
00:58:40,960 --> 00:58:43,080
Speaker 4: is a great day the running game, and they're going

1165
00:58:43,160 --> 00:58:45,520
Speaker 4: to lose that component of it. So I don't I

1166
00:58:45,600 --> 00:58:48,000
Speaker 4: can't see the Giants offense too much. The Giants defense

1167
00:58:48,040 --> 00:58:50,920
Speaker 4: will compete. They will try to ugly this game up,

1168
00:58:51,160 --> 00:58:53,080
Speaker 4: So I like under forty six and a half. I'll

1169
00:58:53,160 --> 00:58:55,520
Speaker 4: keep it simple. I think that the Seahawks are going

1170
00:58:55,560 --> 00:58:57,680
Speaker 4: to be have been a good underteam in the past

1171
00:58:57,840 --> 00:58:59,240
Speaker 4: couple of weeks, and I still think they will be

1172
00:58:59,360 --> 00:58:59,720
Speaker 4: this week.

1173
00:59:00,320 --> 00:59:02,320
Speaker 5: Yeah, this is I like that because this is kind

1174
00:59:02,360 --> 00:59:06,040
Speaker 5: of a weight season development. But the Seahawks are turning

1175
00:59:06,040 --> 00:59:10,000
Speaker 5: into one of those like win twenty seven to seventeen

1176
00:59:10,080 --> 00:59:12,240
Speaker 5: type teams versus earlier in the year it was like

1177
00:59:12,360 --> 00:59:15,320
Speaker 5: thirty eight to twenty nine type type games.

1178
00:59:15,360 --> 00:59:17,760
Speaker 3: So the defense Jamal Adams is helping a lot.

1179
00:59:17,840 --> 00:59:20,280
Speaker 5: You know, he's not a traditional pass rusher, but just

1180
00:59:20,360 --> 00:59:23,240
Speaker 5: to be able to get some pressure from somewhere is

1181
00:59:23,320 --> 00:59:25,720
Speaker 5: really kind of helping them get off the field a

1182
00:59:25,720 --> 00:59:28,000
Speaker 5: little more and just and just kind of put offenses

1183
00:59:28,040 --> 00:59:29,960
Speaker 5: in tougher down in distant situations.

1184
00:59:30,040 --> 00:59:32,600
Speaker 3: So this could be a game where either you have

1185
00:59:33,000 --> 00:59:34,400
Speaker 3: you know, both of these teams.

1186
00:59:34,200 --> 00:59:36,600
Speaker 5: Kind of just playing a low scoring game, or it

1187
00:59:36,680 --> 00:59:39,680
Speaker 5: could actually be a game where Seattle has a rare

1188
00:59:39,880 --> 00:59:42,120
Speaker 5: like blowout and the Giants just don't move up to

1189
00:59:42,200 --> 00:59:43,920
Speaker 5: their you know, end of the bargain in terms of

1190
00:59:43,960 --> 00:59:45,640
Speaker 5: the total, so can't.

1191
00:59:45,520 --> 00:59:48,560
Speaker 4: Yeah, I also think that there's a chance at Seattle's

1192
00:59:48,600 --> 00:59:52,720
Speaker 4: flat here playing the Giants. You're coming, you're a short week,

1193
00:59:52,800 --> 00:59:57,480
Speaker 4: coming across the country after you know, you beat the Cardinals,

1194
00:59:57,720 --> 01:00:00,320
Speaker 4: you went to Philly, you won that game. You're in

1195
01:00:00,440 --> 01:00:04,600
Speaker 4: good playoff positioning, and you have on deck the Jets

1196
01:00:04,640 --> 01:00:09,240
Speaker 4: at home and Washington. So I mean, so you're going

1197
01:00:09,320 --> 01:00:12,360
Speaker 4: Giants Jets Washington. Now you're like, you know, you might

1198
01:00:12,440 --> 01:00:15,960
Speaker 4: take your day, your foot off the gas a little bit, like, well,

1199
01:00:16,000 --> 01:00:17,440
Speaker 4: we're in a good spot here, Sty could come out

1200
01:00:17,440 --> 01:00:20,000
Speaker 4: a little flat on a short week. So yeah, give

1201
01:00:20,040 --> 01:00:20,560
Speaker 4: me the under here.

1202
01:00:21,080 --> 01:00:23,919
Speaker 5: And you got a Brad Berry who's been playing well,

1203
01:00:24,040 --> 01:00:26,040
Speaker 5: he'll be on metcalf. We'll see see if he can

1204
01:00:26,160 --> 01:00:28,720
Speaker 5: slow him down. So that could be a positive as

1205
01:00:28,760 --> 01:00:31,920
Speaker 5: well for the under. All right, so I have Colts

1206
01:00:32,400 --> 01:00:35,040
Speaker 5: Texans under fifty one and a half stuck going with

1207
01:00:35,520 --> 01:00:39,360
Speaker 5: Giant Seahawks under forty six and a half.

1208
01:00:39,880 --> 01:00:44,680
Speaker 3: Now time for our favorite teasers of the week.

1209
01:00:45,840 --> 01:00:48,960
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, six point teasers.

1210
01:00:49,600 --> 01:00:51,840
Speaker 5: It was not familiar a teasers when you combine two

1211
01:00:51,960 --> 01:00:56,240
Speaker 5: or more bets and you get an extra six points

1212
01:00:56,320 --> 01:00:58,800
Speaker 5: in a standard six point teaser toward the spread for

1213
01:00:58,880 --> 01:01:01,560
Speaker 5: each team. So, for example, if you're teasing an eight

1214
01:01:01,640 --> 01:01:04,720
Speaker 5: point favorite, they become a two point favorite, and an

1215
01:01:04,720 --> 01:01:07,840
Speaker 5: eight point underdog becomes a fourteen point underdog.

1216
01:01:08,280 --> 01:01:08,560
Speaker 4: Stuck.

1217
01:01:08,600 --> 01:01:10,920
Speaker 5: You have a lot of great content at actionnetwork dot

1218
01:01:11,080 --> 01:01:14,000
Speaker 5: com on the ins and outs of how to go

1219
01:01:14,120 --> 01:01:18,880
Speaker 5: about choosing your teaser plays with the essential key point

1220
01:01:18,880 --> 01:01:20,840
Speaker 5: that you mentioned. Every week, you're you're trying to tease

1221
01:01:20,840 --> 01:01:24,280
Speaker 5: through the key numbers of three and seven if possible.

1222
01:01:24,760 --> 01:01:26,760
Speaker 3: With that said, where are you going this week?

1223
01:01:27,640 --> 01:01:29,600
Speaker 4: Yeah? I already mentioned the Cardinals. I think they keep

1224
01:01:29,640 --> 01:01:31,640
Speaker 4: that one possession net worse. I might end up going

1225
01:01:31,680 --> 01:01:34,360
Speaker 4: to a plus three this line, Mike, if it gets

1226
01:01:34,400 --> 01:01:36,000
Speaker 4: to a flat three, if it goes down to two

1227
01:01:36,000 --> 01:01:38,360
Speaker 4: and a half, which looks like it's headed, I'll tease them.

1228
01:01:38,600 --> 01:01:41,360
Speaker 4: I like teasing them with sant Fran. I think San

1229
01:01:41,520 --> 01:01:44,480
Speaker 4: fran can keep that game within one possession plus plus

1230
01:01:44,560 --> 01:01:46,320
Speaker 4: two and a half. It just fits the ball. But

1231
01:01:46,400 --> 01:01:49,400
Speaker 4: that's on Monday. We'll talk about that on the weekend recap.

1232
01:01:49,640 --> 01:01:51,280
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'll a break down on that one too. I

1233
01:01:51,920 --> 01:01:53,840
Speaker 3: like that game. Actually, I like San Francisco in that game.

1234
01:01:54,360 --> 01:01:55,520
Speaker 3: SPOILERLD Yeah, I.

1235
01:01:55,520 --> 01:01:57,520
Speaker 4: Don't like if I keep them on it's in Arizona.

1236
01:01:57,640 --> 01:01:59,400
Speaker 4: But yeah, I don't hate that call at all. Yeah,

1237
01:02:00,000 --> 01:02:02,040
Speaker 4: I'll say the Cardinals, I'll go to Sundays, I'll go

1238
01:02:02,120 --> 01:02:03,920
Speaker 4: to the Cardinals, and I'll go to Tennessee. I know

1239
01:02:04,000 --> 01:02:06,320
Speaker 4: it's not going through seven and three, but teasing them

1240
01:02:06,360 --> 01:02:09,439
Speaker 4: down from six to a pick. It's Derrick Henry time.

1241
01:02:09,680 --> 01:02:12,120
Speaker 4: He should be able to run all over the Browns.

1242
01:02:12,160 --> 01:02:13,720
Speaker 4: The Browns are the worst by a lot of metrics,

1243
01:02:13,800 --> 01:02:15,800
Speaker 4: the worst eight and three team in the history of

1244
01:02:15,840 --> 01:02:17,960
Speaker 4: the NFL. I think I saw Iron Chatz sweet out

1245
01:02:17,960 --> 01:02:20,680
Speaker 4: from a dv apers the worst they've played, what two

1246
01:02:20,800 --> 01:02:24,440
Speaker 4: real teams this year, the Ravens and the Steelers, and

1247
01:02:24,480 --> 01:02:27,840
Speaker 4: they got trucked in both his defense, like they don't

1248
01:02:27,840 --> 01:02:31,160
Speaker 4: have their best corner. That'll hurt this week. Titans offense

1249
01:02:31,280 --> 01:02:34,280
Speaker 4: is just it's really good. In my top five. I

1250
01:02:34,360 --> 01:02:37,040
Speaker 4: don't see how they can really slow down the Titans

1251
01:02:37,080 --> 01:02:39,520
Speaker 4: at all. And this is Derrick Henry's time, It's feasting time.

1252
01:02:39,960 --> 01:02:42,840
Speaker 4: I think the Browns are in for a rude awakening

1253
01:02:42,920 --> 01:02:44,840
Speaker 4: here and their defense. I just don't think the defense

1254
01:02:44,840 --> 01:02:46,600
Speaker 4: any good, especially about what I know Garrit'll be back,

1255
01:02:46,640 --> 01:02:48,600
Speaker 4: But think about they played all these bad teams and

1256
01:02:48,680 --> 01:02:51,200
Speaker 4: then they played you know, the couple of good offenses.

1257
01:02:51,240 --> 01:02:54,920
Speaker 4: They played the Texans, the Raiders. They played them in

1258
01:02:55,040 --> 01:02:59,000
Speaker 4: like forty mile an hour wins, like their defensive metrics

1259
01:02:59,040 --> 01:03:04,880
Speaker 4: are meaningless. So yeah, give me the Titans. I think

1260
01:03:04,880 --> 01:03:06,560
Speaker 4: they get that. I think they get the job done.

1261
01:03:06,760 --> 01:03:08,800
Speaker 4: Maybe the Browns got some success on offense. I don't

1262
01:03:08,840 --> 01:03:12,840
Speaker 4: hate that over it's really high though, but uh, I

1263
01:03:12,920 --> 01:03:15,560
Speaker 4: think the Titans with this game, they're down Baker Mayfield.

1264
01:03:15,680 --> 01:03:18,400
Speaker 3: Every throw is like forty mile per hour wins. He

1265
01:03:18,520 --> 01:03:21,360
Speaker 3: missed a gimme Jackson.

1266
01:03:21,280 --> 01:03:23,000
Speaker 4: And then another gimme later in the in the game

1267
01:03:23,240 --> 01:03:24,960
Speaker 4: to the running back and then they get the first down.

1268
01:03:24,960 --> 01:03:25,520
Speaker 4: It's crazy.

1269
01:03:25,960 --> 01:03:27,919
Speaker 5: Yeah, yeah this, I mean the Browns are a team.

1270
01:03:27,960 --> 01:03:30,880
Speaker 5: I've we've been fading them most of the year, So

1271
01:03:31,400 --> 01:03:33,160
Speaker 5: I don't hate that at all.

1272
01:03:33,920 --> 01:03:35,720
Speaker 3: This is tight. This is the Titans time in general.

1273
01:03:35,800 --> 01:03:38,680
Speaker 3: I think like they're they're built for this time of year.

1274
01:03:38,720 --> 01:03:39,680
Speaker 3: They showed that last year.

1275
01:03:40,200 --> 01:03:40,320
Speaker 4: Uh.

1276
01:03:41,160 --> 01:03:44,720
Speaker 5: I will go with the kind of swim pickings on

1277
01:03:44,800 --> 01:03:48,080
Speaker 5: the Sunday sleep, but I'm going with the Lions teasing

1278
01:03:48,160 --> 01:03:51,439
Speaker 5: them up to nine. The Bears have won by four, four,

1279
01:03:51,720 --> 01:03:55,160
Speaker 5: four one in seven. They haven't won by eight or

1280
01:03:55,200 --> 01:03:58,960
Speaker 5: more this year, so their biggest wins by seven. Their

1281
01:03:59,040 --> 01:04:03,440
Speaker 5: other wins are by four or less. So like the

1282
01:04:03,600 --> 01:04:07,400
Speaker 5: Lions up to plus nine, and then the second one

1283
01:04:07,520 --> 01:04:11,600
Speaker 5: was tough going with the Packers through the three and

1284
01:04:12,200 --> 01:04:14,800
Speaker 5: the seven, you know, down to two and a half

1285
01:04:14,880 --> 01:04:15,960
Speaker 5: here listen.

1286
01:04:16,040 --> 01:04:17,680
Speaker 3: I think the Eagles can keep it close.

1287
01:04:17,760 --> 01:04:21,200
Speaker 5: It's not my favorite spot for Aaron Rodgers, but I

1288
01:04:21,280 --> 01:04:22,800
Speaker 5: think it's just another one of those games where the

1289
01:04:22,840 --> 01:04:27,640
Speaker 5: Eagles come up just short because Carson Wentz is not

1290
01:04:27,760 --> 01:04:29,680
Speaker 5: working with enough in my opinion.

1291
01:04:29,800 --> 01:04:31,240
Speaker 2: So like the.

1292
01:04:31,360 --> 01:04:35,040
Speaker 5: Packers to squeak one out here on a swim pick

1293
01:04:35,080 --> 01:04:39,640
Speaker 5: in Sunday. As far as teasers are concerned, So Lions pack.

1294
01:04:41,400 --> 01:04:44,040
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1311
01:05:34,480 --> 01:05:35,720
Speaker 6: now back to the show.

1312
01:05:37,680 --> 01:05:44,440
Speaker 5: All right, now it is time for our moneyline underdog parlay.

1313
01:05:47,480 --> 01:05:52,360
Speaker 2: Turning good weekends into great weekends. It's time for the

1314
01:05:52,560 --> 01:05:53,840
Speaker 2: money line parlay.

1315
01:05:55,400 --> 01:05:58,439
Speaker 3: All right, stuck. You know the Jets last week.

1316
01:05:58,840 --> 01:06:01,960
Speaker 4: I went the Jets last week, which didn't work out.

1317
01:06:02,120 --> 01:06:03,760
Speaker 4: Although I was it was beginning of the week. I

1318
01:06:03,880 --> 01:06:05,640
Speaker 4: was hoping that to a went and I just but

1319
01:06:05,800 --> 01:06:07,480
Speaker 4: he didn't. I was hoping he would get a disaster

1320
01:06:07,600 --> 01:06:09,920
Speaker 4: game from him. This is Adam Gay said, this is

1321
01:06:09,960 --> 01:06:12,680
Speaker 4: what his offense is finally going to look like at

1322
01:06:12,760 --> 01:06:14,960
Speaker 4: full strength with Darno and all the receivers. We saw

1323
01:06:15,000 --> 01:06:18,520
Speaker 4: the output three points. I'll keep it simpler to already

1324
01:06:18,560 --> 01:06:20,120
Speaker 4: talked about earlier. To keep it the Falcons.

1325
01:06:20,480 --> 01:06:21,240
Speaker 3: I hate myself.

1326
01:06:21,720 --> 01:06:24,760
Speaker 5: You mentioned earlier in the pod that you know you

1327
01:06:24,840 --> 01:06:28,440
Speaker 5: bet on the Jets, you hate yourself. This is the

1328
01:06:28,480 --> 01:06:30,880
Speaker 5: week I'm going with the Jets for a moneyline dog.

1329
01:06:31,040 --> 01:06:33,480
Speaker 5: I think out of all the weeks, I think they

1330
01:06:33,560 --> 01:06:36,120
Speaker 5: get a win sometime this season. I think it very

1331
01:06:36,160 --> 01:06:38,960
Speaker 5: well may come this week. You look at the Las

1332
01:06:39,080 --> 01:06:43,640
Speaker 5: Vegas Raiders, and the Raiders are a team that are capable.

1333
01:06:44,720 --> 01:06:46,800
Speaker 5: There are a few teams like this, but capable of

1334
01:06:46,920 --> 01:06:48,840
Speaker 5: beating anyone and capable.

1335
01:06:48,560 --> 01:06:49,640
Speaker 4: Of losing it to anyone.

1336
01:06:49,880 --> 01:06:52,320
Speaker 5: And they've kind of showed that, you know, with how

1337
01:06:52,360 --> 01:06:57,000
Speaker 5: they played Kansas City to then go into Atlanta and lose.

1338
01:06:56,920 --> 01:06:57,800
Speaker 3: Forty three to six.

1339
01:06:58,480 --> 01:07:01,480
Speaker 5: But I remember, if I remember correctly, I think I

1340
01:07:01,600 --> 01:07:03,480
Speaker 5: was fading the Raiders against the Jets at this time

1341
01:07:03,560 --> 01:07:06,000
Speaker 5: last year. Raiders, I think we're six and four at

1342
01:07:06,040 --> 01:07:08,120
Speaker 5: the time with a negative point differential. This year they're

1343
01:07:08,120 --> 01:07:11,560
Speaker 5: six and five with a negative point differential. The Jets

1344
01:07:11,640 --> 01:07:13,720
Speaker 5: kicked off a losing streak beat him thirty four to

1345
01:07:13,840 --> 01:07:17,400
Speaker 5: three last year, so maybe that was the Falcons game

1346
01:07:17,440 --> 01:07:19,720
Speaker 5: for the Raiders, but they had no business losing to

1347
01:07:19,760 --> 01:07:21,480
Speaker 5: the Jets thirty four to three last year. They had

1348
01:07:21,520 --> 01:07:24,800
Speaker 5: no business losing to the Falcons forty whatever it was

1349
01:07:24,880 --> 01:07:28,120
Speaker 5: to six last week. This is a team that can

1350
01:07:28,200 --> 01:07:31,680
Speaker 5: play really bad on any given Sunday.

1351
01:07:32,000 --> 01:07:34,960
Speaker 3: And you look at the Jets and what can they

1352
01:07:35,040 --> 01:07:35,400
Speaker 3: do well?

1353
01:07:35,880 --> 01:07:39,240
Speaker 5: They can stop the run up front, you know, and oh,

1354
01:07:39,680 --> 01:07:42,920
Speaker 5: Josh Jacobs sprained ankle, so he's iffy's for the game.

1355
01:07:43,160 --> 01:07:45,040
Speaker 3: Even if he goes, probably won't be one hundred percent.

1356
01:07:45,640 --> 01:07:48,400
Speaker 5: Now you're putting it on Derek Carr and these underwhelming

1357
01:07:48,640 --> 01:07:52,120
Speaker 5: this underwhelming group of pass catchers outside of Waller, you know,

1358
01:07:52,840 --> 01:07:56,120
Speaker 5: Nelson Aguars kind of the de facto number one receiver.

1359
01:07:56,640 --> 01:08:00,800
Speaker 5: Two bad defenses any given Sunday, I think it can happen.

1360
01:08:00,960 --> 01:08:05,560
Speaker 5: And according to our Action Labs data, teams with a

1361
01:08:05,640 --> 01:08:09,560
Speaker 5: win percentage of below twenty going against teams with a

1362
01:08:09,680 --> 01:08:12,080
Speaker 5: win percentage of fifty five or below, which the Raiders

1363
01:08:12,160 --> 01:08:14,880
Speaker 5: just squeak in, you know, six and five, just squeak

1364
01:08:14,960 --> 01:08:18,680
Speaker 5: in there. In the third quarter of the season. The

1365
01:08:18,800 --> 01:08:23,160
Speaker 5: teams with the win percentage below twenty percent are twenty

1366
01:08:23,280 --> 01:08:25,240
Speaker 5: four and sixteen straight up.

1367
01:08:26,200 --> 01:08:29,120
Speaker 3: It's a major upset spot this time of the year.

1368
01:08:29,479 --> 01:08:30,400
Speaker 3: You just never look.

1369
01:08:30,760 --> 01:08:32,519
Speaker 5: You just kind of look at the Raiders and you say, Okay,

1370
01:08:32,560 --> 01:08:34,960
Speaker 5: they're both five hundred. They'll easily take care of the Jets.

1371
01:08:35,720 --> 01:08:38,120
Speaker 5: But this is a winnable game for the Jets. I

1372
01:08:38,120 --> 01:08:40,120
Speaker 5: think it's a lot different than going against Miami, who

1373
01:08:40,160 --> 01:08:44,640
Speaker 5: the Jets scored three points against in eight quarters. You know,

1374
01:08:44,760 --> 01:08:47,559
Speaker 5: they just they Miami just had their number, Brian Flores

1375
01:08:47,560 --> 01:08:52,360
Speaker 5: had their number. But Raiders going across the country another

1376
01:08:52,479 --> 01:08:57,040
Speaker 5: tough spot for them. Howaday weekend beginning of a letdown

1377
01:08:57,080 --> 01:09:01,120
Speaker 5: for them, same time last year, going back to the well,

1378
01:09:01,439 --> 01:09:03,720
Speaker 5: Jets get there first and probably only win in the

1379
01:09:03,800 --> 01:09:05,320
Speaker 5: season this week.

1380
01:09:06,080 --> 01:09:08,760
Speaker 4: Sure, I don't hate it. I mean I don't hate it.

1381
01:09:08,840 --> 01:09:13,040
Speaker 4: Maybe Grudins they can they can have these stinkers and yeah,

1382
01:09:13,720 --> 01:09:16,160
Speaker 4: I make this not eight or nine. So I mean,

1383
01:09:16,200 --> 01:09:19,479
Speaker 4: I'm not betting it, and I am going to retire.

1384
01:09:19,520 --> 01:09:21,400
Speaker 4: I think I'm going to retire. I hope there's still

1385
01:09:21,400 --> 01:09:22,720
Speaker 4: a couple of games left, but I'm going to be

1386
01:09:22,760 --> 01:09:25,840
Speaker 4: I'm going to finish undefeated against the spread betting on

1387
01:09:25,880 --> 01:09:27,800
Speaker 4: the Jets. I want to know this year. That's my goal.

1388
01:09:28,200 --> 01:09:30,200
Speaker 4: So all right there it is Jets and Falcons.

1389
01:09:30,400 --> 01:09:33,480
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean, if you if you've ever want to reconsider,

1390
01:09:33,600 --> 01:09:35,800
Speaker 5: this is actually a great the one of the few

1391
01:09:36,520 --> 01:09:40,839
Speaker 5: gay spots awful loss non divisional there are gay spots,

1392
01:09:41,320 --> 01:09:45,559
Speaker 5: listen to this awful loss, which those are quite plentiful.

1393
01:09:45,600 --> 01:09:48,040
Speaker 5: As we know under Adam Gate, awful loss is a

1394
01:09:48,120 --> 01:09:51,360
Speaker 5: non divisional home underdog, you know, as long as we're

1395
01:09:52,000 --> 01:09:54,519
Speaker 5: fourth game of the year later, So outside of you know,

1396
01:09:54,600 --> 01:09:57,120
Speaker 5: the first couple of games eight two and one against

1397
01:09:57,120 --> 01:10:00,120
Speaker 5: the spread eighty percent, maybe the only gay spot, but

1398
01:10:00,760 --> 01:10:02,560
Speaker 5: market tends to kind of overlook them here, and I

1399
01:10:02,680 --> 01:10:04,720
Speaker 5: just think this this could just be another sleepy spot

1400
01:10:04,760 --> 01:10:06,800
Speaker 5: for the Raiders because I think they're gonna, you know,

1401
01:10:06,880 --> 01:10:09,800
Speaker 5: coming off that game against the Falcons, they're like, okay,

1402
01:10:09,960 --> 01:10:12,240
Speaker 5: you know, we tripped up against the Falcons. They could

1403
01:10:12,560 --> 01:10:16,080
Speaker 5: still overlook this game now, you know, because of like

1404
01:10:16,400 --> 01:10:18,760
Speaker 5: they feel like, okay, we're gonna get right against the Jets.

1405
01:10:18,760 --> 01:10:20,400
Speaker 3: So we'll see what happens.

1406
01:10:20,439 --> 01:10:23,800
Speaker 5: But going with the Jets, come on, Adam, give me

1407
01:10:23,840 --> 01:10:28,720
Speaker 5: one more before you inevitably get fired as well. Let's

1408
01:10:28,720 --> 01:10:30,160
Speaker 5: get into the best of the rest, which are the

1409
01:10:30,240 --> 01:10:34,960
Speaker 5: games we did not discuss in any other segment. First up,

1410
01:10:35,200 --> 01:10:39,840
Speaker 5: we got Jacksonville at Minnesota, Vikes favored by ten total

1411
01:10:39,880 --> 01:10:40,759
Speaker 5: fifty one.

1412
01:10:40,680 --> 01:10:41,120
Speaker 3: And a half.

1413
01:10:41,800 --> 01:10:46,400
Speaker 5: Jacksonville's kind of tempted. They've been competitive, but just see Minnesota.

1414
01:10:46,439 --> 01:10:49,879
Speaker 5: If Steven's back, they'll they'll move the ball on offense

1415
01:10:49,920 --> 01:10:52,680
Speaker 5: and kind of fluky with what is it Jeremy Chin

1416
01:10:52,760 --> 01:10:57,080
Speaker 5: two straight plays defensive scores in that game. Vikings been

1417
01:10:57,080 --> 01:10:59,240
Speaker 5: giving up kind of some weird things, but Dalvin Cooks

1418
01:10:59,240 --> 01:11:02,800
Speaker 5: banged up, so kind of lean Jags here, what about you?

1419
01:11:03,640 --> 01:11:06,559
Speaker 4: No field all here? Non zero? I make the line

1420
01:11:06,560 --> 01:11:10,320
Speaker 4: around nine, like I think ten right, Let's see, I

1421
01:11:10,320 --> 01:11:12,439
Speaker 4: think I'll make it right at ten. Who's starting quarter?

1422
01:11:12,520 --> 01:11:15,360
Speaker 4: Is Glennon starting again for the Jags? Is Cook healthy?

1423
01:11:16,000 --> 01:11:17,920
Speaker 4: Is stealing back? These are things I'll be watching, But

1424
01:11:18,000 --> 01:11:20,760
Speaker 4: it looks like this is gonna sit around ten. So

1425
01:11:20,840 --> 01:11:22,720
Speaker 4: I had no interest in really digging intoo this one

1426
01:11:22,720 --> 01:11:25,000
Speaker 4: because my number is right and it's not a spot

1427
01:11:25,040 --> 01:11:27,160
Speaker 4: that's screaming out to me. The Jags defense is so

1428
01:11:27,320 --> 01:11:30,800
Speaker 4: bad it's decimated, but the Vikings defense is vulnerable too.

1429
01:11:31,760 --> 01:11:34,200
Speaker 4: Maybe a sneaky over, but no real feel here.

1430
01:11:34,560 --> 01:11:37,559
Speaker 3: Any final game. The Broncos plus fourteen at CAC Sunday

1431
01:11:37,600 --> 01:11:40,400
Speaker 3: Night Football total fifty and a half thoughts on this one.

1432
01:11:40,439 --> 01:11:42,680
Speaker 4: Stuff, Yeah, I'm curious to get your thoughts. I'm going

1433
01:11:42,720 --> 01:11:44,840
Speaker 4: to write up for this game. I make the line

1434
01:11:44,880 --> 01:11:48,439
Speaker 4: around like thirteen and a half fish the little I

1435
01:11:48,520 --> 01:11:50,880
Speaker 4: think just a couple of destinate points up, so right

1436
01:11:50,880 --> 01:11:53,519
Speaker 4: around where the line is. I'm curious about the total.

1437
01:11:53,640 --> 01:11:56,120
Speaker 4: But Bryce Kalahan's gonna mess. He's been great as a

1438
01:11:56,240 --> 01:11:58,760
Speaker 4: corner for the Broncos, so that'll be obviously a big

1439
01:11:58,880 --> 01:12:01,040
Speaker 4: loss for the Cheese. I think their core the Broncos

1440
01:12:01,160 --> 01:12:04,080
Speaker 4: quarterbacks are back at least, so it won't be Kendall Hinton.

1441
01:12:04,240 --> 01:12:06,720
Speaker 4: That'll help, you know, maybe the Broncos should have some

1442
01:12:07,160 --> 01:12:10,280
Speaker 4: success running the ball. The Chiefs should score like they

1443
01:12:10,320 --> 01:12:13,320
Speaker 4: do against everyone can Drew Locke, maybe have some success

1444
01:12:13,479 --> 01:12:16,679
Speaker 4: in garbage time from behind that might help the over.

1445
01:12:17,160 --> 01:12:19,800
Speaker 4: The Chiefs have been kind of, you know, sluggish in

1446
01:12:19,920 --> 01:12:22,000
Speaker 4: some of these games, these very winnable games, because they

1447
01:12:22,080 --> 01:12:23,800
Speaker 4: just know that like, all right, if we're down, like

1448
01:12:24,000 --> 01:12:25,800
Speaker 4: we can just go win it. And this team's bad

1449
01:12:25,880 --> 01:12:27,599
Speaker 4: and we don't need to show a bunch of stuff,

1450
01:12:28,000 --> 01:12:29,519
Speaker 4: So trying to get a read here. I don't have

1451
01:12:29,560 --> 01:12:31,120
Speaker 4: a great one. I'm gonna dig into it on Action

1452
01:12:31,160 --> 01:12:33,320
Speaker 4: network dot com and the Action app. I'll be right

1453
01:12:33,439 --> 01:12:35,080
Speaker 4: up for it to make sure you check out that.

1454
01:12:35,160 --> 01:12:36,880
Speaker 4: But I was curious to get your thoughts this year.

1455
01:12:37,439 --> 01:12:39,760
Speaker 5: I think this is a spot where I mean, from

1456
01:12:39,800 --> 01:12:42,720
Speaker 5: everything we've seen, this is one of those spots where

1457
01:12:42,760 --> 01:12:46,240
Speaker 5: it's been tough for Vic Fangio. In the first matchup

1458
01:12:46,600 --> 01:12:50,560
Speaker 5: in Denver thirty to six Kansas City, Then in the

1459
01:12:50,640 --> 01:12:54,280
Speaker 5: rematch twenty three to three Kansas City that was with

1460
01:12:54,520 --> 01:12:57,240
Speaker 5: Drew Lock. Steve spegno Will called a great game in

1461
01:12:57,320 --> 01:13:00,800
Speaker 5: that one. And then this year I Drew Rock. I

1462
01:13:00,880 --> 01:13:04,800
Speaker 5: believe it was his first game back from snow.

1463
01:13:04,920 --> 01:13:08,000
Speaker 4: It was a bunch of snow yeah, and you had three.

1464
01:13:07,920 --> 01:13:11,920
Speaker 5: Sixteen yeah, forty three sixteen Chiefs. So in the three

1465
01:13:12,040 --> 01:13:15,600
Speaker 5: games that Fangio has faced the Chiefs ninety six to

1466
01:13:15,800 --> 01:13:20,639
Speaker 5: twenty five, I think the play is probably the over

1467
01:13:20,720 --> 01:13:23,160
Speaker 5: if you're gonna look out of play, I think, you know,

1468
01:13:23,439 --> 01:13:27,639
Speaker 5: the Chiefs probably covering this game, but you don't want

1469
01:13:27,640 --> 01:13:30,200
Speaker 5: to bet them as fourteen thirteen and a half whatever

1470
01:13:30,280 --> 01:13:32,960
Speaker 5: they are, So you know, I just until we see

1471
01:13:33,040 --> 01:13:36,400
Speaker 5: something out of Fangio and Lock and this Denver defense

1472
01:13:36,400 --> 01:13:39,320
Speaker 5: actually make a difference against Kansas City. I don't think

1473
01:13:39,520 --> 01:13:41,240
Speaker 5: we can have much confidence. I mean, this has just

1474
01:13:41,320 --> 01:13:44,120
Speaker 5: been I remember the Chiefs had that like long streak

1475
01:13:44,479 --> 01:13:47,519
Speaker 5: against the Raiders, like until this year. It's a growed

1476
01:13:47,600 --> 01:13:49,080
Speaker 5: you know, it's a growed in like four or five

1477
01:13:49,240 --> 01:13:51,640
Speaker 5: or you know, six tries to figure them out. And

1478
01:13:51,720 --> 01:13:55,400
Speaker 5: it took Derek Carry even more than that. So I

1479
01:13:55,479 --> 01:13:59,280
Speaker 5: don't really see anything from Lock or Fangio yet that

1480
01:13:59,479 --> 01:14:01,840
Speaker 5: that would lead me to believe that anything you know,

1481
01:14:01,960 --> 01:14:04,880
Speaker 5: outside of the ordinary can happen but late in the year.

1482
01:14:05,000 --> 01:14:06,479
Speaker 5: But I think, if anything, we might just see a

1483
01:14:06,520 --> 01:14:12,160
Speaker 5: really good Chiefs defensive game. The Broncos defense is still talented.

1484
01:14:12,160 --> 01:14:14,120
Speaker 5: I think they'll give teams problems for the rest of

1485
01:14:14,160 --> 01:14:14,479
Speaker 5: the Yeah.

1486
01:14:14,479 --> 01:14:16,240
Speaker 4: I mean the Bronco has been a top five fast

1487
01:14:16,280 --> 01:14:20,559
Speaker 4: d I have them I think tenth or eleventh over

1488
01:14:20,640 --> 01:14:23,800
Speaker 4: on defense now. But Callahan is so important that aj

1489
01:14:23,960 --> 01:14:25,800
Speaker 4: boy look at it, he like grades out this year

1490
01:14:25,960 --> 01:14:28,920
Speaker 4: not great. Gets how old he is thirty thirty one

1491
01:14:29,160 --> 01:14:32,320
Speaker 4: over the hill. Uh so he's past that age where

1492
01:14:32,320 --> 01:14:33,800
Speaker 4: he's no longer an the leadue corner. And I think

1493
01:14:33,840 --> 01:14:36,720
Speaker 4: he's heading towards wash status and Kalahan has been so

1494
01:14:36,840 --> 01:14:40,120
Speaker 4: grateful now and like Kalen has been one of the

1495
01:14:40,200 --> 01:14:42,840
Speaker 4: top five best corners in the NFL, and without him

1496
01:14:43,200 --> 01:14:45,439
Speaker 4: you get like an Ojib Moody. And just when you

1497
01:14:45,560 --> 01:14:49,280
Speaker 4: lose corner depth against the Chiefs, you're fucked. When you

1498
01:14:49,360 --> 01:14:51,720
Speaker 4: lose a guy like Callahan. The Denver defense is still

1499
01:14:51,720 --> 01:14:54,439
Speaker 4: good at great safeties. I mean, it's the Fanjo's scheme

1500
01:14:54,520 --> 01:14:58,320
Speaker 4: in the second year. But you're not slow down the

1501
01:14:58,400 --> 01:15:01,599
Speaker 4: Chiefs offense. U. It's just a matter of like when

1502
01:15:01,640 --> 01:15:05,000
Speaker 4: do the Chiefs want to slow down themselves? Or does

1503
01:15:05,280 --> 01:15:08,519
Speaker 4: you know, can the Broncos hit a couple of plays early?

1504
01:15:08,960 --> 01:15:11,400
Speaker 4: Can they run the ball and then get ahead? And

1505
01:15:11,479 --> 01:15:12,800
Speaker 4: then the Chiefs will just be like, all right, I'm

1506
01:15:12,800 --> 01:15:15,240
Speaker 4: gonna turn it on and come back. The Chiefs go

1507
01:15:15,400 --> 01:15:17,479
Speaker 4: down in the game, bet the over. You can bet

1508
01:15:17,520 --> 01:15:20,559
Speaker 4: them live here if they're down, although the market doesn't

1509
01:15:20,560 --> 01:15:24,240
Speaker 4: give you much there. If the Chiefs are big in

1510
01:15:24,600 --> 01:15:27,479
Speaker 4: the second half or going into second yeah, I don't

1511
01:15:27,479 --> 01:15:29,760
Speaker 4: think looking for at Denver second half is a bad idea.

1512
01:15:30,280 --> 01:15:32,600
Speaker 4: The Chiefs, if they're up really big, they've shown like

1513
01:15:32,600 --> 01:15:35,400
Speaker 4: they did against Tampa, They're just gonna be like we're

1514
01:15:35,520 --> 01:15:37,240
Speaker 4: we don't need to show anything. We know we're gonna win.

1515
01:15:37,960 --> 01:15:41,120
Speaker 4: We'll run it, conservative throws, will punt it, and then

1516
01:15:41,160 --> 01:15:42,880
Speaker 4: we know Drew Locke the only time he's good is

1517
01:15:42,920 --> 01:15:46,120
Speaker 4: in garbage time. So those are my initial thoughts there,

1518
01:15:46,160 --> 01:15:47,360
Speaker 4: but nothing as it right now.

1519
01:15:47,960 --> 01:15:50,280
Speaker 5: The one thing about the Chiefs I always kind of

1520
01:15:50,720 --> 01:15:54,160
Speaker 5: you have to be careful with them because like because

1521
01:15:54,240 --> 01:15:56,840
Speaker 5: they they got up big against Tampa last week and

1522
01:15:56,880 --> 01:15:59,280
Speaker 5: then let them come back in that that you know,

1523
01:15:59,400 --> 01:16:01,719
Speaker 5: knowing Andy will be the focus and be like, Okay,

1524
01:16:01,800 --> 01:16:04,280
Speaker 5: this week we got to finish and just completely step

1525
01:16:04,360 --> 01:16:06,600
Speaker 5: on their throat. So like keep that in mind, like

1526
01:16:06,680 --> 01:16:08,479
Speaker 5: that's that's the kind of team they are, and they

1527
01:16:08,640 --> 01:16:11,360
Speaker 5: just kind of toylet teams. But yeah, I mean, Drew Locke,

1528
01:16:11,479 --> 01:16:13,360
Speaker 5: if he could just complete the ball to Jerry Judy

1529
01:16:13,680 --> 01:16:15,800
Speaker 5: at more than a fifty percent quip, He's forty four

1530
01:16:15,880 --> 01:16:20,479
Speaker 5: percent forty four point eight percent completion percentage targeting Jerry Judy.

1531
01:16:20,560 --> 01:16:23,760
Speaker 5: Judy's can catch right for the years under fifty percent.

1532
01:16:23,840 --> 01:16:26,600
Speaker 5: That's almost unheard of for a wide receiver with that

1533
01:16:26,720 --> 01:16:29,960
Speaker 5: many targets. Who's not you know, like a just situational

1534
01:16:30,280 --> 01:16:33,040
Speaker 5: deep threat. I mean, Judy has seventy eight targets thirty

1535
01:16:33,080 --> 01:16:36,040
Speaker 5: seven catches. So uh yeah, Broncos.

1536
01:16:36,560 --> 01:16:38,719
Speaker 4: The Chiefs last four games, they're gonna be really interesting.

1537
01:16:38,760 --> 01:16:40,640
Speaker 4: This will be a tease for future episodes. But like

1538
01:16:40,720 --> 01:16:44,519
Speaker 4: I'm excited to look at their game at Miami next week.

1539
01:16:44,520 --> 01:16:47,400
Speaker 4: They'll be probably over a touchdown favorite, but look breaking

1540
01:16:47,479 --> 01:16:50,400
Speaker 4: that down. Then they go to New Orleans, so breaking

1541
01:16:50,479 --> 01:16:53,479
Speaker 4: that one down, and then their home against Atlanta could

1542
01:16:53,560 --> 01:16:55,920
Speaker 4: will Atlanta have some value with the way they're playing

1543
01:16:55,960 --> 01:16:58,400
Speaker 4: as a nice dog number if their offense is healthy.

1544
01:16:58,720 --> 01:17:01,759
Speaker 4: And then the last game of the is home against

1545
01:17:01,760 --> 01:17:04,559
Speaker 4: the Chargers, the one defense that always gives the mischief.

1546
01:17:04,680 --> 01:17:06,840
Speaker 4: So the Chiefs have some interesting matchups that we'll be

1547
01:17:06,840 --> 01:17:08,280
Speaker 4: able to talk about over the last four weeks. This

1548
01:17:08,400 --> 01:17:09,400
Speaker 4: one not the most.

1549
01:17:09,800 --> 01:17:13,160
Speaker 3: Yeah, those are three really good coaching matchups before of course,

1550
01:17:14,439 --> 01:17:15,680
Speaker 3: well he might not be there by then.

1551
01:17:15,960 --> 01:17:16,760
Speaker 4: I was just gonna say that.

1552
01:17:16,800 --> 01:17:19,599
Speaker 5: All right, that wraps it up for best of the rest.

1553
01:17:19,720 --> 01:17:23,040
Speaker 5: Let's quickly get into our Survivor Pick.

1554
01:17:22,960 --> 01:17:23,280
Speaker 3: Of the week.

1555
01:17:23,880 --> 01:17:24,639
Speaker 4: One pick.

1556
01:17:26,200 --> 01:17:30,840
Speaker 3: One chance to advance Survivor.

1557
01:17:32,320 --> 01:17:35,799
Speaker 5: All right, use a ton of teams actually lost twice,

1558
01:17:36,040 --> 01:17:37,280
Speaker 5: got knocked out twice this year.

1559
01:17:38,080 --> 01:17:40,839
Speaker 3: Use the Giants last week they hit barely.

1560
01:17:41,040 --> 01:17:44,599
Speaker 4: Who are you going with this week? Seattle with Seattle over?

1561
01:17:44,960 --> 01:17:48,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, well, there we go, Seattle against the Giants, Russell

1562
01:17:48,120 --> 01:17:52,400
Speaker 3: Wilson against Colt McCoy. What can you go wrong? I'm

1563
01:17:52,840 --> 01:17:54,000
Speaker 3: only half joking, I hope.

1564
01:17:54,360 --> 01:17:54,720
Speaker 7: All right.

1565
01:17:54,960 --> 01:17:57,679
Speaker 5: That is gonna wrap it up for this week's Action

1566
01:17:57,880 --> 01:18:01,000
Speaker 5: Network NFL Betting podcast again, and you can follow the

1567
01:18:01,040 --> 01:18:03,880
Speaker 5: picks at Sunday six Pack on the Action Network AAP.

1568
01:18:03,920 --> 01:18:05,960
Speaker 5: You can follow Stucky at Stucky two and me at

1569
01:18:06,200 --> 01:18:09,320
Speaker 5: Chris Raybon. Those are our handles on Twitter as well,

1570
01:18:09,360 --> 01:18:11,880
Speaker 5: and be sure to check out actionnetwork dot com and

1571
01:18:11,960 --> 01:18:14,960
Speaker 5: our pro subscription for some Greek betting content.

1572
01:18:15,200 --> 01:18:18,160
Speaker 3: Good luck this week and get this money.

1573
01:18:18,760 --> 01:18:36,519
Speaker 4: Let's go. We're finished talking