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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast, the number one show

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Speaker 1: for the invested sports fan.

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Speaker 2: All right, here we go.

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Speaker 3: Throwing a job spect. We're sitting up.

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Speaker 1: To cash touchdown.

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Speaker 3: We'll see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 3: go to win.

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Speaker 1: Oh my god, that's incredible. Big bank, small banks. I

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Speaker 1: like to make money. All right, this is the ultimate kabak.

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Speaker 4: You want to pass.

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Speaker 2: And we are underway.

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Speaker 4: Welcome to another edition of the Action Network Podcast. This

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Speaker 4: will be an NFL Fantasy Football edition to help you

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Speaker 4: guys get ready for the upcoming fantasy season and all

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Speaker 4: your drafts. Today we will be talking all about the

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Speaker 4: first few rounds of the draft, the top fifty, the

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Speaker 4: fantasy studs at each position. I am Chris Raybond of

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Speaker 4: the Action Network and here to help me out. Sean Corner,

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Speaker 4: aka the Odds Maker, and special guests. We're really excited

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Speaker 4: to have him here with us talking today. Dave Richard

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Speaker 4: of CBA Sports. Dave, thanks for taking the time out

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Speaker 4: to join us. Really excited to talk to you about

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Speaker 4: the Top fifty day.

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Speaker 1: I'm really excited to talk to you guys. I see

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Speaker 1: both of you on Twitter all the time. I never

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Speaker 1: spoke to either of you until right now, and I'll

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Speaker 1: tell you what. I really admire the work and effort

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Speaker 1: that you guys put in too fantasy football, to the

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Speaker 1: NFL in general, and for for several days, I've honestly

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Speaker 1: been looking forward to this. So thank you so much

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Speaker 1: for inviting me. Let's talk some football, Dave.

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Speaker 3: Thanks, that really means a lot. That's why we have.

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Speaker 3: The feeling is mutuale That's why we're all here.

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Speaker 4: So let's let's jump right into it because we want

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Speaker 4: to talk about, you know, kind of walk the listeners

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Speaker 4: through each round of the draft, talk about who we're

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Speaker 4: drafting over home and why.

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Speaker 3: So, Dave, I want to kick it.

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Speaker 4: To you first because you know we are going to

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Speaker 4: talk all this top fifty.

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Speaker 3: But let's get this out of the way now.

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Speaker 4: Since people love sleep just give us some of your

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Speaker 4: favorite sleepers that you're targeting in twenty nineteen.

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Speaker 1: A lot of them are rookies at running back. Damien Harris,

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Speaker 1: Darwin Thompson, Devin's Solitary. I guess those are the three

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Speaker 1: d's their names. I'll start with the I'm excited about

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Speaker 1: all three of them. I love the idea of drafting

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Speaker 1: them and waiting for them to pay off for my

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Speaker 1: fantasy squad one month, six weeks into the season, which listen,

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Speaker 1: a lot of people do not want to wait that

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Speaker 1: long for these guys to pop off. But if you

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Speaker 1: remember Nick Chubb last year, I think each of those

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Speaker 1: running backs have the chance to do what Chubb did,

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Speaker 1: which is get the opportunity and then just take over

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Speaker 1: with it. And yes, even Darwin Thompson in Kansas City.

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Speaker 1: Paris Campbell I've had a crush on since I scouted him,

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Speaker 1: and when he went to Indianapolis, I just I fell

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Speaker 1: in love. I think he's going to be outstanding there.

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Speaker 1: I think the offensive fit is perfect for him. Kind

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Speaker 1: of wish you'd get healthy amstering issue that's been keeping

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Speaker 1: him out of a cap, and Andrew Luck with his

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Speaker 1: gaff injury. That's got to get fixed too. And then

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Speaker 1: at tight end, not a rookie, but a second year player,

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Speaker 1: Mark Andrews with the Ravens. I think people are starting

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Speaker 1: to catch on to him. But there was not a

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Speaker 1: better target for Lamar Jackson to lean on last year

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Speaker 1: than Mark Andrews. Caught thirteen of twenty targets from him.

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Speaker 1: A bunch of them were deeper targets for whatever reason,

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Speaker 1: he couldn't connect with his receivers, but he could get

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Speaker 1: the job done with Andrews. And he's just the better

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Speaker 1: route runner and the better football player in that Ravens

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Speaker 1: tight end room. And I think he's going to play

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Speaker 1: on the field every single down for Baltimore this year.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 4: I think they have to because you know Jackson still

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Speaker 4: coming along, still progressing as a passer. You can't afford

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Speaker 4: to take a guy like Andrews, who you had a

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Speaker 4: lot of chemistry with off the field.

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Speaker 3: He will indeed be featured.

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Speaker 4: And I think going back to what you said about

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Speaker 4: Harris the rookie for New England, I mean, this is

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Speaker 4: a team that begins with the end in mind pretty

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Speaker 4: much every year. You know that the team they're gonna

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Speaker 4: kind of field in January, December, January is not the

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Speaker 4: same team they're gonna field in in September, and they're

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Speaker 4: not run the same things necessarily. So I think Harris,

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Speaker 4: because Michelle got twenty three carries per game in the

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Speaker 4: playoffs last year, they might want to use Harris early

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Speaker 4: on to preserve Michelle, who's already banged up.

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Speaker 3: So I really liked the Harris calls who.

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Speaker 1: I'll tell you what really sold me on it. Like,

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Speaker 1: first of all, Harris was my number two ranked running

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Speaker 1: back coming into the draft. You can probably guess who

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Speaker 1: number one was. And we had an interview with Ben

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Speaker 1: Volean from the Boston Globe on our podcast, the Fantasy

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Speaker 1: Football Today Podcast, and he told us that one of

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Speaker 1: the reasons that they drafted Harris was because he was

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Speaker 1: so good in short yardage situations and Sony wasn't. And

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Speaker 1: I heard that and I thought, oh, there's no way,

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Speaker 1: like Sony had to have been better. And I went

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Speaker 1: back and checked, and Sony Michelle had a fifty one

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Speaker 1: percent conversion rate on downs of three yards or less

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Speaker 1: in college. And granted it's college, but last year Damien

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Speaker 1: Harris had a sixty two and a half percent conversion

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Speaker 1: rate on the same thing. So I wonder if they

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Speaker 1: just want a healthier body, a younger body, and one

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Speaker 1: that's done that short yardage job well to be there

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Speaker 1: in case Sony doesn't. Because that that that's been a

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Speaker 1: sticking point for Belichick for as long as I can remember,

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Speaker 1: that if he doesn't have a back that can consistently

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Speaker 1: get that fourth and shorter, you know, second in goal

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Speaker 1: from the one he gets angry. That's that's something that

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Speaker 1: he thinks is running back should get every time. And

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Speaker 1: I think Harris can do that for them with some

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Speaker 1: regular consistency. And I'm not sold that Sony A can

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Speaker 1: do it as consistently or B will be available to

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Speaker 1: do it as consistently. So that's why I like Harris

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Speaker 1: round nine or later.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, and you know, we had Jake Seely on here

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Speaker 4: about a week ago and he talked about every year

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Speaker 4: it seems like you invest in the cheapest member of

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Speaker 4: the Pats backfield and you get the best ROI because

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Speaker 4: remember last year everyone was drafting Rex Burkhead. I think

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Speaker 4: you know highest, and you know that didn't turn out well.

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Speaker 4: So love the Harris call on.

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Speaker 3: How about you?

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Speaker 4: Who are you targeting as some sleepers here in twenty nineteen?

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Speaker 5: So for me some of my sleepers, well, number one,

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Speaker 5: I've been harp on all off season. But Latavius Murray,

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Speaker 5: his ADP is an absolute joke as the RB thirty

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Speaker 5: six right now. You know, even if he doesn't take

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Speaker 5: over the full marketing room role, I think it could

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Speaker 5: be closer to sixty to eighty percent of that. And

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Speaker 5: you know he should be a consistent RB three flex

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Speaker 5: guy to start there, but you also have the hidden

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Speaker 5: upside of if Alvin Kamara were to ever miss time,

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Speaker 5: Latavius Murray would be a low end RB one So

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Speaker 5: I just love getting him at his current ADP with

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Speaker 5: with the hidden upside baked in. And then at QB,

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Speaker 5: Jamis Winston's the guy I've been getting super late. Typically

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Speaker 5: want to wait as long as possible at QB, but

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Speaker 5: you know, Jamis Winston, he has, you know, easy top

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Speaker 5: five potential that you can get super late. So I've

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Speaker 5: been he's been working into my draft strategy quite a bit.

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Speaker 5: And then the other thing I've been sort of brainstorming is,

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Speaker 5: you know, I've been trying to peg who's going to

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Speaker 5: become the wide receiver too for the Packers and Steelers.

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Speaker 5: So in certain drafts, I just take both James Washington

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Speaker 5: and Dante Moncrief, or take both Marquez Valdez Scantling and

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Speaker 5: dron and Allison on the same team. You know, that way,

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Speaker 5: you're just kind of guaranteeing, you know, one of them

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Speaker 5: will break out. So I've been I've been using you know,

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Speaker 5: once it gets around ten, doing something like that, it

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Speaker 5: might sound a little bit hedgy, but I think it's

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Speaker 5: it's a good way to kind of guarantee, you know,

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Speaker 5: a solid top end option on your bench at receiver.

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Speaker 2: So that's good. That's been a strategy I've been using

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Speaker 2: the past couple of weeks.

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Speaker 1: We we implore that strategy. We don't recommend it always,

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Speaker 1: but we talk about it a lot. So I guess

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Speaker 1: I imployer wasn't the right word. But we call it

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Speaker 1: the friendship strategy where and it's a silly name, but

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Speaker 1: you remember what it is. Where you get two receivers

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Speaker 1: on the same team that are connected, affecting one of

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Speaker 1: them to be that guy. And I thought Alison when

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Speaker 1: when I heard about him going into the slot in

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Speaker 1: Green Bay, I thought about Matt Lafleur's previous stops where

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Speaker 1: he had tall slot receivers. Cooper Cup was that guy.

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Speaker 1: Mohammed Sanu was that guy. And I could see Alison

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Speaker 1: being that guy that could rack up six to seven

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Speaker 1: targets per game. Maybe not necessarily have a great receiving average.

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Speaker 1: Slot receivers typically don't, but he could be a nice,

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Speaker 1: safe number three receiver for you.

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Speaker 4: Absolutely, I mean, and I don't think it's out of

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Speaker 4: the question in Green Bay that both Alison and Valdez

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Speaker 4: Scantling have value because we know how good Aaron Rodgers

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Speaker 4: is and we know how much Jimmy Graham is slowing down,

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Speaker 4: so they don't tend to throw to the back a ton.

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Speaker 4: Aaron Jones he can catch the ball, but not really

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Speaker 4: something he has done at a high volume in the past.

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Speaker 4: So you're looking at, yeah, Adams is going to get his,

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Speaker 4: but you're looking at Alison and Valdez Scantling perhaps both

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Speaker 4: coming close to four catches a game. I think if

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Speaker 4: Jimmy Graham continues to play like he did last season,

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Speaker 4: so I think that's an interesting strategy, and I think,

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Speaker 4: especially in Green Bay, both of those guys are worse.

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Speaker 3: Top one hundred picks.

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Speaker 4: For me, I'll go a little deeper a couple of

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Speaker 4: guys that I think could end up weeding their team

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Speaker 4: or at least their team's receivers in targets this year.

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Speaker 3: John Brown in Buffalo.

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Speaker 4: Adam Kaplan's been going to all the camps, and you know,

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Speaker 4: he really has singled out Brown a ton as the

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Speaker 4: guy that's operating essentially as their number one at this point.

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Speaker 3: Robert Foster operating is his backup.

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Speaker 4: I think Foster's talented, but we know Josh Allen can

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Speaker 4: throw deep. Had an amazing rapport with Foster last year

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Speaker 4: who averaged over twenty yards per target in terms of

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Speaker 4: target depths and still caught over sixty percent of his passes.

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Speaker 4: So if John Brown can kind of slide into that role,

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Speaker 4: he was doing a lot better before you know, Joe

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Speaker 4: Flacco went down and they switched to Lamar Jackson, who's

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Speaker 4: a whole different kind of quarterback. And in Baltimore, I

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Speaker 4: think Miles Boykin, the rookie, he actually might separate himself.

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Speaker 4: I know a lot of people were going for Marquis

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Speaker 4: Brown first, who got drafted in round one, but it

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Speaker 4: looks like Boykin has been that guy at camp that's

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Speaker 4: kind of stood out and could emerge as that that

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Speaker 4: go to guy outside of Andrews in Balti.

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Speaker 3: So those are a couple of guys I'm looking at.

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Speaker 4: And of course Keishan Johnson in Arizona, reports are he

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Speaker 4: is the clear number three right now. So I think

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Speaker 4: that's a role to pay attention to because that team

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Speaker 4: is going to play at a very high pace and

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Speaker 4: you have a guy like Larry Fitzgerald who getting up

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Speaker 4: there in age. You have Christian Kirk, who entering his

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Speaker 4: second year I really like, but did you know end

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Speaker 4: the year with an injury. So those are three guys

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Speaker 4: that I'm looking at at receiver. But Dave, I want

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Speaker 4: to get your thoughts on what I think is something

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Speaker 4: that's really important for people in these drafts, and it's

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Speaker 4: not you know, everyone kind of looks at rankings, but

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Speaker 4: you know, you come out with various iterations of your

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Speaker 4: positional tiers article, as does Sean, and I just want

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Speaker 4: to get your thoughts on the importance of tiering. You know,

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Speaker 4: tell people what it is and why you do it,

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Speaker 4: and how it's kind of superior to just using rankings

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Speaker 4: on their own.

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Speaker 1: So as you guys know, a rank list it's just

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Speaker 1: a bunch of names and order by position. The tiers

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Speaker 1: add some context to it because you group players together

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Speaker 1: based on your expectations for them. For example, if if

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Speaker 1: I wanted to put the running backs that I have

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Speaker 1: for fifteen hundred plus total yards and ten plus total

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Speaker 1: touchdowns in the same tier, it would pretty much be

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Speaker 1: the running backs at the top of my list. So

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Speaker 1: in PPR, that's Alvin Kamara at Saquon Barkley, it's Christian McCaffrey,

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Speaker 1: It's Ezekiel Elliott. That's it. That's the whole tier. It's

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Speaker 1: just four names. But then right under that tier is

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Speaker 1: the next tier, and that might be fourteen hundred and nine.

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Speaker 1: Not a big difference, but it's another grouping of running backs,

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Speaker 1: and I like to group them together so I can

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Speaker 1: see when I'm doing my draft or my auction. And

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Speaker 1: it really comes in handy in an auction, guys, where

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Speaker 1: the players are starting to go off the board fast,

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Speaker 1: when I need to attack a tier. Say I'm picking

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Speaker 1: toward the end of round two, I picks coming up.

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Speaker 1: I only see one running back left in that second tier.

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Speaker 1: I see three or four receivers that are in the

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Speaker 1: highest available tier. I'll go to that running back knowing

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Speaker 1: that I can get one of those receivers coming back

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Speaker 1: to me in round three. It helps set a map

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Speaker 1: on draft day for you to make smarter picks, and

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Speaker 1: in auctions, it helps you spend your your your dollars

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Speaker 1: wisely so that you don't overspend for somebody and that

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Speaker 1: you don't actually set the market necessarily for a player.

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Speaker 1: You might even able to get a discount for a

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Speaker 1: player in the same tier as another player who went

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Speaker 1: for five to seven percent.

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Speaker 4: More So, Dave, you know, when you're using these tiers,

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Speaker 4: does the overall construction of your team up until that

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Speaker 4: point come into play as well? For example, let's say

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Speaker 4: you're in the fourth round and that running back tier

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Speaker 4: is kind of thinning out, but you only start two

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Speaker 4: running backs and you start three receivers. Do you go

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Speaker 4: for a third running back before you draft that third

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Speaker 4: receiver based on you know, kind of what's available in

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Speaker 4: the tiers, or how do you go about that?

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Speaker 1: Well, that's a great question. And when you throw in

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Speaker 1: third receiver, that makes it more likely that I'm going

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Speaker 1: to ignore the running back and go get the receiver.

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Speaker 1: But it also depends on what's left in the receiving tier. Now,

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Speaker 1: it just so happens this year that I think the

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Speaker 1: receiving depth in fantasy is second to only quarterback in

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Speaker 1: terms of depth. Quarterback you can wait forever on Shawn's right.

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Speaker 1: When it comes to guys like Jameis Winston, makes perfect

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Speaker 1: sense to just wait, wait, wait. I think you can

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Speaker 1: wait to a degree. With wide receivers, you can't do it.

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Speaker 1: With the elite guys. If you've got to have a

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Speaker 1: stud number one receiver in your lineup, you got to

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Speaker 1: go after him early. But after that you can make

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Speaker 1: a case for maybe twenty five receivers to be strictly

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Speaker 1: number two guys while eliminating the ones that are obvious

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Speaker 1: number one guys. And if I see the receivers that

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Speaker 1: are left, and I think a couple of them have

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Speaker 1: a chance to make it back to me with my

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Speaker 1: next pick, and I recognize that that running back talent

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Speaker 1: pool is draining quick, yeah, I'm going to head in

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Speaker 1: that direction even when three receivers are mandatory in the league.

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Speaker 1: A because I want that running back depth to help

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Speaker 1: support my team throughout the year. And B I'm confident

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Speaker 1: that even if I pick the wrong receivers on draft Day,

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Speaker 1: I can find the right ones off waivers during the year.

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Speaker 4: Hey, Sewan, I'm gonna kick it to you now, you've

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Speaker 4: kind of had a strategy based on your tiers where

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Speaker 4: you are targeting two of those a week guys if

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Speaker 4: you can get it, so just talk a little bit about,

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Speaker 4: you know, kind of why you're doing that and why

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Speaker 4: it kind of has different from years past.

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Speaker 5: I typically like to be at the back end of

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Speaker 5: the draft to you know, employ the strategy. But yeah,

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Speaker 5: I try to target two wide receivers early on. I

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Speaker 5: try to lock into you guys in this elite wide

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Speaker 5: receiver one tier. And the reason is during the season

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Speaker 5: it's very possible you're gonna be able to pick up

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Speaker 5: you know, potential RB two or even RB one. I

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Speaker 5: mean that is not possible at receiver at the end

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Speaker 5: of the year. If you look at the top ten receivers,

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Speaker 5: it's all guys that we spent high draft capital on.

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Speaker 5: But you know, running back, you can get lucky if

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Speaker 5: you utilize my you know, hoarding running back strategy. It's

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Speaker 5: it's a little bit easier to get lucky. So I

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Speaker 5: think this year, especially since wide receivers drop off quite

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Speaker 5: a bit for me after say the top twenty, and

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Speaker 5: then it's just kind of a big, massive tier that

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Speaker 5: I kind of just let fall to me. I let

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Speaker 5: the draft dictate who you know becomes my benched up.

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Speaker 5: But at running back, I mean, the RB two tier

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Speaker 5: is way better than last so I've been I've been

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Speaker 5: typically attacking receiver for the first couple rounds and then

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Speaker 5: attacking the RB two tier rounds three and four, which

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Speaker 5: is almost the exact opposite of what my strategy was

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Speaker 5: last year.

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Speaker 1: And it sounds like the opposite of what I'm doing, Yeah,

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Speaker 1: which is it's cool that this is what makes fantasy

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Speaker 1: great by it is that there's no one right way

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Speaker 1: to do it, and if there was one right way

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Speaker 1: to do it, then everybody would do it that way.

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Speaker 1: I think where you draft in round one kind of

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Speaker 1: sets the tone for this. Like Sean, I don't see

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Speaker 1: how you could do your strategy if you have the

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Speaker 1: number one overall pick and you've got a chance at

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Speaker 1: one of those elite running backs, and maybe you'll tell

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Speaker 1: me that you will go receiver over Saquan or Camara.

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Speaker 1: But if you're picking late in round one and early

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Speaker 1: in round two, this is where I would agree with you.

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Speaker 1: I think going receiver receiver. And I'm just now coming

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Speaker 1: around on this. I think that that's probably the way

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Speaker 1: to go in a PPR.

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Speaker 5: That's what I'm trying to emphasize, is you know, your

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Speaker 5: draft order basically dictates your first few rounds. Much as

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Speaker 5: we hate to admit that all the prep we do

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Speaker 5: before a draft, once you get your draft order, you

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Speaker 5: kind of are pit it into like the small range

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Speaker 5: of outcomes you can do. So, yeah, if I get

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Speaker 5: a first five pick, you know I'm going running back

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Speaker 5: first and then attacking the high end wide receiver twos

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Speaker 5: in rounds two and three. So yeah, it's a similar strategy,

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Speaker 5: but just a little a little bit flipped depending on

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Speaker 5: what pick I get.

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Speaker 1: Do you have a spot where you know you're gonna go.

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Speaker 5: A receiver anywhere between six and twelve? Okay, and yeah,

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Speaker 5: either go Kelsey or wide receiver first.

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Speaker 1: So you'll pass on David Johnson James Connor.

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Speaker 5: No, that's David Johnson would be the cutoff. I think

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Speaker 5: after the top five picks, it's pretty much open season

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Speaker 5: for receivers and Kelsey.

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Speaker 2: In my opinion.

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Speaker 1: Okay, I just now kind of came to this conclusion.

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Speaker 1: Literally twenty four hours ago. I was weighing the idea

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Speaker 1: of Le'Veon Bell as a first round pick in PPR,

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Speaker 1: and I just I can't do it, I say, but

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Speaker 1: there's just there are too many factors just going against

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Speaker 1: him that I would rather go receiver receiver or healthy

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Speaker 1: receiver with my first two picks then have Leveon Bell

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Speaker 1: on my team in round one. Now, it's a different story.

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Speaker 1: If I get a receiver in round one and Leveon

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Speaker 1: is there for me in round two, I might consider

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Speaker 1: him there, but I'm not going after him like some

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Speaker 1: people are going after him. Some people have Leveon Bell

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Speaker 1: as their number five overall pick, and I just I

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Speaker 1: can't get behind it. There's just too much that I

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Speaker 1: don't like about Le'Veon.

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Speaker 4: I think it really comes down to also we should

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Speaker 4: as you guys alluded to your kind of weak settings

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Speaker 4: and your drafts up, but also your you know your

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Speaker 4: your lineup requires because if you need, let's say a flex,

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Speaker 4: and you're only starting two receivers and two running backs,

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Speaker 4: and then your flex could be whoever. I think it

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Speaker 4: changes kind of where you want to pick Waveyon Bell

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Speaker 4: versus if you're you're in kind of a two receiver

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Speaker 4: three two running back, three receiver one flex, you might

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Speaker 4: want to start four receivers just the way positional depth

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Speaker 4: kind of breaks out, so then it kind of changes things. So, Dave,

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Speaker 4: I think I got what you were kind of saying about.

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Speaker 4: There are about twenty guys who who you could feel

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Speaker 4: comfortable starting. Is these wide receiver two flex type of guys,

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Speaker 4: And I think we're all.

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Speaker 3: On the same page. There.

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Speaker 4: There's just kind of an a week tier of top guys.

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Speaker 4: You can't really replace them. And then after that you

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Speaker 4: could make a case that almost anyone can replace anyone

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Speaker 4: of these next kind of you know, twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I want to make it clear. I don't think

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Speaker 1: you can find a number one wide receiver off waiver.

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Speaker 1: But last year I toyed with the strategy of streaming

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Speaker 1: my wide receiver too, And once I found a guy

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Speaker 1: last year that like a Tyler Boyd came on my

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Speaker 1: team and I was good to go with him until

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Speaker 1: he broke down. But I didn't mind making that the

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Speaker 1: weak spot in my lineup on draft day because everybody

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Speaker 1: you got to do it with one spot. You can't

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Speaker 1: have a perfect unless you get really lucky. You can

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Speaker 1: wait on quarterback. I don't like to wait on tight end.

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Speaker 1: I want to have my running backs covered because I

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Speaker 1: just I agree. I think hoarding running backs that's been

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Speaker 1: something that I've been doing for a long time. I

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Speaker 1: love that. Maybe anchoring my lineup with one stud receiver

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Speaker 1: and then starting to collect more receivers in round six plus,

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Speaker 1: that's probably going to be among my favorite strategies to

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Speaker 1: do this year, provided I don't have to start three

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Speaker 1: receivers and a flex. If it's two wide receivers and

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Speaker 1: one flex something like that, it's what you see in

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Speaker 1: most leagues. Yeah, I like waiting for that second receiver.

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Speaker 4: That's a very interesting strategy, streaming your wide receiver too,

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Speaker 4: or just streaming your last wide receiver period, because I

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Speaker 4: could see that even in let's say you do have

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Speaker 4: a third receiver and still a flex, you're probably going

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Speaker 4: to kind of want to balance your team out a

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Speaker 4: little more because we know running. The way I like

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Speaker 4: to think about is this for every position you're starting,

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Speaker 4: Like you're starting two running backs, well the two bye weeks,

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Speaker 4: so that means you need two extra starts throughout the

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Speaker 4: year at least perhaps three ifs depending on you know

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Speaker 4: what's happening with with them having the same bye. But

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Speaker 4: you knew that at least two weeks two extra starts.

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Speaker 4: Then running backs miss about two or three games a year.

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Speaker 4: So then now you're up to anywhere from you know,

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Speaker 4: eight to you know.

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Speaker 3: About eight starts that you need.

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Speaker 4: You need a whole nother player that's kind of starting

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Speaker 4: caliber at that position and adding a flex only increases that,

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Speaker 4: and then wide receivers they don't miss quite as many games,

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Speaker 4: which you still have bye weeks, so there are just

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Speaker 4: a lot more kind of guys in that wide receiver,

436
00:20:04,240 --> 00:20:06,720
Speaker 4: you know, that last wide receiver position that you could

437
00:20:06,760 --> 00:20:10,520
Speaker 4: kind of cycle back and forth between depending on the matchup.

438
00:20:10,560 --> 00:20:12,600
Speaker 4: So that's a that's a really interesting strategy. We got

439
00:20:12,600 --> 00:20:14,360
Speaker 4: to talk more about that as the as we get

440
00:20:14,359 --> 00:20:15,600
Speaker 4: into the show. But I want to kind of start

441
00:20:15,600 --> 00:20:19,400
Speaker 4: to walk the listeners through, just you know, round by round,

442
00:20:19,400 --> 00:20:22,359
Speaker 4: starting at the top in the first round, so Dave,

443
00:20:22,960 --> 00:20:25,520
Speaker 4: you know who who's the number one pick in fantasy?

444
00:20:25,520 --> 00:20:28,240
Speaker 4: Does it change at all, whether it's you know, PPR

445
00:20:28,600 --> 00:20:32,000
Speaker 4: or standard, and just kind of after that, you know,

446
00:20:32,200 --> 00:20:34,639
Speaker 4: what's your general you know, top three, top four guys

447
00:20:34,720 --> 00:20:37,520
Speaker 4: or just first tier guys that you're looking at in

448
00:20:37,520 --> 00:20:38,399
Speaker 4: twenty nineteen.

449
00:20:38,560 --> 00:20:42,680
Speaker 1: Well, it does depend on scoring system and if catches count.

450
00:20:43,080 --> 00:20:45,720
Speaker 1: I'm going to tap into the hyper efficiency of Alvin Kamara,

451
00:20:46,160 --> 00:20:48,040
Speaker 1: who I think will see a little bit more work

452
00:20:48,119 --> 00:20:51,080
Speaker 1: this year than he's had in the past. And I

453
00:20:51,440 --> 00:20:55,160
Speaker 1: just I like the the Saints offense a ton really

454
00:20:55,200 --> 00:20:58,240
Speaker 1: buy into Sean Payton, not worried about the offensive line

455
00:20:58,280 --> 00:21:00,600
Speaker 1: losing much with Max on Ger going. I know Max

456
00:21:00,640 --> 00:21:02,960
Speaker 1: Hunger is good, but he's been playing beat up at

457
00:21:03,040 --> 00:21:05,280
Speaker 1: least the last season, if at the last couple. And

458
00:21:05,800 --> 00:21:07,720
Speaker 1: I liked Eric McCoy coming out of A and M,

459
00:21:08,400 --> 00:21:11,200
Speaker 1: so he's my number one. And it's kind of crazy

460
00:21:11,240 --> 00:21:13,600
Speaker 1: to not take Saquon Barkley at number one overall because

461
00:21:13,960 --> 00:21:16,000
Speaker 1: he's a do it all young running back with strong

462
00:21:16,080 --> 00:21:18,959
Speaker 1: legs and good hands. But I'm I'm a little nervous

463
00:21:19,000 --> 00:21:22,840
Speaker 1: about how defenses are going to view him now that

464
00:21:22,880 --> 00:21:26,280
Speaker 1: the Giants don't have Odell Beckham to scare the safeties

465
00:21:26,320 --> 00:21:28,760
Speaker 1: back and maybe put the linebackers back a step. And

466
00:21:29,000 --> 00:21:30,439
Speaker 1: I do like Evan Ingram, but I don't know if

467
00:21:30,440 --> 00:21:34,280
Speaker 1: he's going to stretch defenses like obj did. But Taquan

468
00:21:34,400 --> 00:21:36,520
Speaker 1: is my number two, so it's a nitpick between them.

469
00:21:36,760 --> 00:21:39,880
Speaker 1: McCaffrey is the obvious three, and then Ezekiel Elliott is fourth.

470
00:21:39,880 --> 00:21:41,960
Speaker 1: I think his catch has come down from last year,

471
00:21:42,320 --> 00:21:44,760
Speaker 1: but I think his touchdowns go way up. And that's

472
00:21:44,760 --> 00:21:49,160
Speaker 1: assuming that he actually, you know, shows up plays football.

473
00:21:49,560 --> 00:21:52,360
Speaker 1: You know, that's kind of an important requirement. And then

474
00:21:52,480 --> 00:21:56,200
Speaker 1: once those guys are gone, I kind of toggle back

475
00:21:56,240 --> 00:21:59,760
Speaker 1: and forth between. And again this is relative to PPR

476
00:22:00,240 --> 00:22:03,280
Speaker 1: and not PPR, so I'll talk about PPR. I think

477
00:22:03,680 --> 00:22:07,840
Speaker 1: I think DeAndre Hopkins is safe and explosive. I think

478
00:22:07,920 --> 00:22:10,400
Speaker 1: Julio Jones is a little less safe, like a half

479
00:22:10,440 --> 00:22:15,040
Speaker 1: step less safe, but still very explosive. And I'm not

480
00:22:15,080 --> 00:22:18,280
Speaker 1: a Devonte Freeman guy. I'm worried about his workload. I

481
00:22:18,359 --> 00:22:20,520
Speaker 1: think the Falcons are gonna throw a ton. They're gonna

482
00:22:20,520 --> 00:22:22,200
Speaker 1: be in a bunch of high scoring games this year.

483
00:22:22,800 --> 00:22:25,520
Speaker 1: Dirk Cutter likes to throw the ball a lot. I'm

484
00:22:25,560 --> 00:22:27,880
Speaker 1: not buying this. We're gonna run the ball a ton

485
00:22:27,960 --> 00:22:30,400
Speaker 1: and control games with defense. It's not gonna happen in Atlanta.

486
00:22:30,560 --> 00:22:32,520
Speaker 1: They're gonna throw the ball a lot, and Julio is

487
00:22:32,520 --> 00:22:35,720
Speaker 1: gonna be very good. And then David Johnson comes into

488
00:22:35,720 --> 00:22:39,160
Speaker 1: play for me then, because I think he's got eighty

489
00:22:39,240 --> 00:22:42,560
Speaker 1: catch potential. Love the offense that's coming into play in Arizona.

490
00:22:42,960 --> 00:22:45,719
Speaker 1: I could probably go on twenty minutes about Kyler Murray

491
00:22:46,000 --> 00:22:48,320
Speaker 1: and what I expect to him, but the fact that

492
00:22:48,400 --> 00:22:51,439
Speaker 1: David Johnson's gonna play out a shotgun next to Kyler

493
00:22:51,520 --> 00:22:54,320
Speaker 1: Murray and do the zone read with him, it's gonna

494
00:22:54,359 --> 00:22:58,280
Speaker 1: drive defenses insane. I know the offensive line isn't very

495
00:22:58,320 --> 00:23:00,520
Speaker 1: good in Arizona, but it's better better than it was

496
00:23:00,640 --> 00:23:04,399
Speaker 1: last year, and David Johnson won't be miscast as a

497
00:23:04,840 --> 00:23:06,440
Speaker 1: I don't know what the hell the coaches were thinking

498
00:23:06,520 --> 00:23:08,840
Speaker 1: last year in Arizona, but they did not use him

499
00:23:08,840 --> 00:23:12,439
Speaker 1: the right way. I'm confident that Cliff Kingsbury will. I

500
00:23:12,560 --> 00:23:14,720
Speaker 1: know for a fact that Kingsbury thinks that David Johnson's

501
00:23:14,720 --> 00:23:17,359
Speaker 1: a stud. That's not saying much. So I'm willing to

502
00:23:17,359 --> 00:23:22,359
Speaker 1: take him ahead of Devonte Adams, James Connor, Travis kelcey

503
00:23:22,400 --> 00:23:26,000
Speaker 1: Odell Beckham, Juju Smith, Schuster, and those other players who

504
00:23:26,040 --> 00:23:29,560
Speaker 1: were good first round picks but not guys I'm ready

505
00:23:29,560 --> 00:23:33,919
Speaker 1: to take ahead of David Johnson. Given Johnson's goodness, fifteen

506
00:23:33,960 --> 00:23:36,439
Speaker 1: hundred total yards might be low for him in this offense.

507
00:23:36,480 --> 00:23:38,800
Speaker 1: It could be closer to eighteen hundred total yards.

508
00:23:39,080 --> 00:23:39,320
Speaker 2: Yeah.

509
00:23:39,400 --> 00:23:41,280
Speaker 3: I think Johnson and you kind of hit on it.

510
00:23:41,320 --> 00:23:43,040
Speaker 4: The O line might not be good, but lining up

511
00:23:43,080 --> 00:23:46,240
Speaker 4: in shotgun that spread offensive scheme, it's going to mitigate

512
00:23:46,560 --> 00:23:49,919
Speaker 4: the deficiencies of the O line. And Johnson is a

513
00:23:49,920 --> 00:23:52,600
Speaker 4: guy who has expressed the desire to kind of go

514
00:23:52,680 --> 00:23:55,280
Speaker 4: for one hundred excuse me, for a thousand rushing and

515
00:23:55,320 --> 00:23:57,960
Speaker 4: receiving yards, and so he has a talent to do that.

516
00:23:58,640 --> 00:24:01,520
Speaker 3: You might be right on hundred. Number might just be woa,

517
00:24:02,760 --> 00:24:03,360
Speaker 3: oh sorry.

518
00:24:03,200 --> 00:24:05,400
Speaker 1: Go ahead, Well it might be a little bit low.

519
00:24:05,600 --> 00:24:08,600
Speaker 1: And listen. You ask any NFL player what their goals

520
00:24:08,600 --> 00:24:11,120
Speaker 1: are and they'll they'll tell you a thousand of thought.

521
00:24:11,119 --> 00:24:13,160
Speaker 1: I once had a prominent tight end told me, tell

522
00:24:13,240 --> 00:24:14,760
Speaker 1: me that not only did you want to catch for

523
00:24:14,760 --> 00:24:16,480
Speaker 1: a thousand yards, he wanted to run for a thousand

524
00:24:16,520 --> 00:24:22,840
Speaker 1: yards and didn't happen. He never did. But he Johnson's

525
00:24:22,840 --> 00:24:25,159
Speaker 1: the one that carries a little bit of risk compared

526
00:24:25,160 --> 00:24:27,560
Speaker 1: to everybody else that we're talking about taking with a

527
00:24:27,680 --> 00:24:30,399
Speaker 1: top eight overall pick. But I'm willing to take that

528
00:24:30,520 --> 00:24:33,240
Speaker 1: chance with him because I think the situation is so good.

529
00:24:34,720 --> 00:24:35,040
Speaker 3: Sean.

530
00:24:35,760 --> 00:24:38,280
Speaker 4: So, you know, Dave kind of outlined his tiers as

531
00:24:38,359 --> 00:24:40,080
Speaker 4: kind of a you know, four running backs I think

532
00:24:40,080 --> 00:24:40,879
Speaker 4: we're in agreement with.

533
00:24:41,160 --> 00:24:42,840
Speaker 3: But I did want to get your thoughts on.

534
00:24:43,800 --> 00:24:46,960
Speaker 4: Kind of the second the second tier of overall picks,

535
00:24:46,960 --> 00:24:50,280
Speaker 4: but the first tier of wide receivers, because seems like

536
00:24:50,320 --> 00:24:56,000
Speaker 4: Dave is higher on Julio than DeVante Adams, and I know,

537
00:24:56,200 --> 00:24:58,240
Speaker 4: I think I believe you have kind of Hopkins and

538
00:24:58,280 --> 00:25:00,480
Speaker 4: Adams in their own tier I know out of other

539
00:25:00,560 --> 00:25:02,600
Speaker 4: That's kind of how the ADP is shaken out as well.

540
00:25:02,640 --> 00:25:04,680
Speaker 4: So talk to me about those guys and how you

541
00:25:04,720 --> 00:25:07,719
Speaker 4: see that tier shaken out where and where Julio belongs.

542
00:25:08,440 --> 00:25:10,520
Speaker 5: Yeah, So, I mean, first off, I think the top

543
00:25:10,560 --> 00:25:13,199
Speaker 5: eight wide receivers are all you know, typically part of

544
00:25:13,200 --> 00:25:16,800
Speaker 5: the elite tier, but I have DeVante Adams and DeAndre

545
00:25:16,880 --> 00:25:20,320
Speaker 5: Hopkins in their own little mini tier. So the first

546
00:25:20,320 --> 00:25:23,160
Speaker 5: wide receiver off the board I think should be either

547
00:25:23,200 --> 00:25:25,720
Speaker 5: one of them. I actually have them exactly tied and

548
00:25:25,760 --> 00:25:30,080
Speaker 5: half point PPR projected points. But I've been leaning Adams

549
00:25:30,119 --> 00:25:32,840
Speaker 5: just because you know, last year he led the league

550
00:25:32,840 --> 00:25:36,719
Speaker 5: in red zone targets only playing fifteen games. He actually

551
00:25:36,760 --> 00:25:40,560
Speaker 5: matched Hopkins point total and half point PPR last year

552
00:25:40,640 --> 00:25:43,159
Speaker 5: despite the miss game. And you know Hopkins is going

553
00:25:43,240 --> 00:25:45,679
Speaker 5: to have to deal with Kiki QT and will fuller

554
00:25:46,080 --> 00:25:49,600
Speaker 5: healthier this year, And you know DeVante Adams should only

555
00:25:49,640 --> 00:25:52,680
Speaker 5: improve with you know, Rogers improving this year. Rogers only

556
00:25:52,720 --> 00:25:56,119
Speaker 5: through twenty five touchdowns last year, So I think, you know,

557
00:25:56,200 --> 00:25:59,080
Speaker 5: that's going to help Bowie Adams floor. And you know,

558
00:25:59,160 --> 00:26:02,199
Speaker 5: I think he still has overall wide receiver one ceiling,

559
00:26:02,320 --> 00:26:04,800
Speaker 5: So you know, I usually just go with Adams first

560
00:26:04,880 --> 00:26:07,520
Speaker 5: if I can. But you know, on the way back

561
00:26:07,680 --> 00:26:11,960
Speaker 5: any of these other receivers Juju Smith, Hulio, Jones, Odell Beckham,

562
00:26:12,080 --> 00:26:14,359
Speaker 5: Tyrek Hill, I have them all separated by about three

563
00:26:14,359 --> 00:26:17,520
Speaker 5: points total. So the whole points of tears for me

564
00:26:17,680 --> 00:26:19,480
Speaker 5: is I don't really pull up my hair trying to

565
00:26:19,480 --> 00:26:21,679
Speaker 5: figure out which one. I would be happy if I

566
00:26:21,720 --> 00:26:24,720
Speaker 5: get two out of any of these top eight receivers.

567
00:26:24,720 --> 00:26:27,280
Speaker 5: But I have been leaning towards Odell being sort of

568
00:26:27,320 --> 00:26:30,320
Speaker 5: the third guy. I just think his ceiling in that

569
00:26:30,400 --> 00:26:34,119
Speaker 5: Brown's offense is extremely high. And you know, Julio, I

570
00:26:34,119 --> 00:26:36,720
Speaker 5: think we've you know, come to realize he's never going

571
00:26:36,800 --> 00:26:40,000
Speaker 5: to be that ten touchdown guy we hope, so with him,

572
00:26:40,040 --> 00:26:42,400
Speaker 5: he sort of gives you that safe floor with his yardage.

573
00:26:42,400 --> 00:26:43,520
Speaker 2: But I think Odell.

574
00:26:43,400 --> 00:26:47,399
Speaker 5: Could have the upside of you know, fifteen hundred receiving

575
00:26:47,480 --> 00:26:49,960
Speaker 5: yards and touchdowns. So I think at this point I'm

576
00:26:49,960 --> 00:26:51,959
Speaker 5: going for the higher ceiling guy, and for me, that's Odell.

577
00:26:52,240 --> 00:26:52,440
Speaker 1: Yeah.

578
00:26:52,440 --> 00:26:54,960
Speaker 4: That's interesting because usually when we're you know, early on

579
00:26:55,000 --> 00:26:57,520
Speaker 4: in these drafts we talk about we're trying to maximize

580
00:26:57,560 --> 00:27:01,840
Speaker 4: our floor. Dad, is that something that you're kind of

581
00:27:01,840 --> 00:27:04,760
Speaker 4: thinking about here in this first round, first couple of rounds,

582
00:27:04,840 --> 00:27:07,040
Speaker 4: you know, floor versus ceiling or is it just kind

583
00:27:07,040 --> 00:27:09,600
Speaker 4: of more you know, projecting these guys out and whoever

584
00:27:09,600 --> 00:27:12,280
Speaker 4: the median is, that's how you're kind of going.

585
00:27:12,680 --> 00:27:17,320
Speaker 1: I'll probably consider floor versus ceiling across positions, and not

586
00:27:17,400 --> 00:27:19,919
Speaker 1: necessarily with these top four running backs. I think all

587
00:27:19,960 --> 00:27:23,439
Speaker 1: four of these guys have nice sturdy floors, and I

588
00:27:23,480 --> 00:27:25,639
Speaker 1: almost feel like they all have the same type of ceiling.

589
00:27:25,920 --> 00:27:29,160
Speaker 1: I think they could all get to sixteen hundred yards

590
00:27:29,200 --> 00:27:31,800
Speaker 1: and twelve touchdowns. I think they all have it in him,

591
00:27:32,000 --> 00:27:34,760
Speaker 1: even Julio Jones, who's only had double digit touchdowns once

592
00:27:35,119 --> 00:27:36,920
Speaker 1: and when he did have it, it was Dirk Cutter

593
00:27:36,960 --> 00:27:41,520
Speaker 1: calling the place for Atlanta. I get why Devanta Adams

594
00:27:41,640 --> 00:27:44,840
Speaker 1: is Seawn's number one, and I debate this with Jamie

595
00:27:44,840 --> 00:27:47,399
Speaker 1: Eisenberg on our podcast all the time, because I believe

596
00:27:47,400 --> 00:27:50,639
Speaker 1: that's his number one, very safe pick. If you're looking

597
00:27:50,640 --> 00:27:54,800
Speaker 1: for the safest pick at wide receiver this year, Devanta

598
00:27:54,840 --> 00:27:57,399
Speaker 1: Adams is it. He was I believe number one in

599
00:27:57,440 --> 00:28:00,960
Speaker 1: consistency last year, finished top two regards wardless of format.

600
00:28:01,480 --> 00:28:05,000
Speaker 1: And you know we talk about Geronimo Allison and Valdez

601
00:28:05,040 --> 00:28:07,800
Speaker 1: Scantling having a hand in the offense. I don't think

602
00:28:07,800 --> 00:28:12,000
Speaker 1: they're going to do enough to shorten the targets for

603
00:28:12,480 --> 00:28:16,080
Speaker 1: DeVonta Adams. If there's a concern, and this is where

604
00:28:16,119 --> 00:28:18,959
Speaker 1: I might ultimately make a change, it's that I think

605
00:28:19,000 --> 00:28:21,280
Speaker 1: Matt Lafleur wants to run the ball a little bit more,

606
00:28:21,880 --> 00:28:24,000
Speaker 1: and I think it could be just enough that it

607
00:28:24,080 --> 00:28:27,359
Speaker 1: takes away targets from everybody in Green Bay. It takes

608
00:28:27,400 --> 00:28:32,920
Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers attempts down. I don't know, thirty attempts over

609
00:28:32,920 --> 00:28:35,040
Speaker 1: the course of this seven, maybe closer to fifty if

610
00:28:35,119 --> 00:28:37,800
Speaker 1: Aaron Jones has his way. But Jones is hurt. Right now,

611
00:28:38,080 --> 00:28:40,560
Speaker 1: I'm starting to sour on Aaron Jones. And the more

612
00:28:40,560 --> 00:28:43,040
Speaker 1: I sour on Jones and the more I realize that, Wow,

613
00:28:43,080 --> 00:28:45,000
Speaker 1: the Packers might not have a great run game. For

614
00:28:45,640 --> 00:28:47,560
Speaker 1: god it it seems like they rarely have a good

615
00:28:47,600 --> 00:28:50,400
Speaker 1: run game when Aaron Rodgers is there. Then DeVonta Adams

616
00:28:50,440 --> 00:28:54,200
Speaker 1: makes more sense as a potential number one overall receiver Adams.

617
00:28:54,400 --> 00:28:57,280
Speaker 4: It's just been unprecedented with the touchdown scoring. I think

618
00:28:57,480 --> 00:29:00,000
Speaker 4: over these past couple of years, you know, double digit touchdowns,

619
00:29:00,120 --> 00:29:02,520
Speaker 4: you know, pretty much every year, and you just see

620
00:29:02,560 --> 00:29:05,760
Speaker 4: it last year watching the tape. Aaron Rodgers doesn't have

621
00:29:06,160 --> 00:29:09,320
Speaker 4: many guys he trusts out there, and the defense knows it.

622
00:29:09,520 --> 00:29:13,240
Speaker 4: They're double teaming him, sometimes triple teaming Adams, and somehow

623
00:29:13,480 --> 00:29:15,360
Speaker 4: he manages to find his way to get open in

624
00:29:15,400 --> 00:29:17,880
Speaker 4: the back of the end zone. Yeah, it's uncanny what

625
00:29:17,920 --> 00:29:19,880
Speaker 4: Adams has been able to do. So I think he's

626
00:29:19,920 --> 00:29:22,040
Speaker 4: still a top two guy for me that I am

627
00:29:22,120 --> 00:29:24,200
Speaker 4: taking over Julio, But I mean Julio led the league

628
00:29:24,280 --> 00:29:26,640
Speaker 4: in receiving yards per game by about eight last year,

629
00:29:26,720 --> 00:29:29,600
Speaker 4: so you know, if he just gets those touchdowns kind

630
00:29:29,600 --> 00:29:32,160
Speaker 4: of in concert with his yardage, and touchdowns are the

631
00:29:32,200 --> 00:29:35,440
Speaker 4: most volatile statistics. So the regression to the mean is

632
00:29:35,480 --> 00:29:38,560
Speaker 4: working in the favor of, you know, Julio and against

633
00:29:38,600 --> 00:29:40,800
Speaker 4: Adams a little bit because Adams has just been such

634
00:29:40,800 --> 00:29:43,160
Speaker 4: an outlier. So I could definitely, you could definitely make

635
00:29:43,200 --> 00:29:45,280
Speaker 4: a case for it, and I think that's kind of

636
00:29:45,280 --> 00:29:46,600
Speaker 4: the point we're getting at here. You know, you have

637
00:29:46,680 --> 00:29:49,360
Speaker 4: these tiers, and within these tiers you have these mini tiers.

638
00:29:49,400 --> 00:29:51,640
Speaker 4: But the bottom line is, early on in these drafts,

639
00:29:51,680 --> 00:29:53,480
Speaker 4: I think people shouldn't be kind of pulling their hair

640
00:29:53,520 --> 00:29:57,000
Speaker 4: out over a versus beat necessarily. Like if somebody has

641
00:29:57,040 --> 00:29:59,760
Speaker 4: a bust year in this top you know, top tier

642
00:29:59,840 --> 00:30:02,440
Speaker 4: TI couple of tiers, it's not going to necessarily be

643
00:30:02,480 --> 00:30:04,320
Speaker 4: something you predicted as much as it's going to be

644
00:30:04,320 --> 00:30:06,320
Speaker 4: some bad injury luck or something like that, whether it's

645
00:30:06,520 --> 00:30:08,840
Speaker 4: the receiver themselves, or the running back or the quarterback

646
00:30:08,840 --> 00:30:12,120
Speaker 4: on the offense something else. So let's keep going down

647
00:30:12,160 --> 00:30:14,719
Speaker 4: the line here and talk about some more of these receivers,

648
00:30:14,720 --> 00:30:16,760
Speaker 4: and then we'll kind of get to tight end. But

649
00:30:17,400 --> 00:30:20,240
Speaker 4: that next tier, you know, people are considering Julio or

650
00:30:20,320 --> 00:30:23,840
Speaker 4: kind of that mini elite tier. Within the top tier receivers,

651
00:30:23,840 --> 00:30:25,760
Speaker 4: you got Michael Thomas, who I see goes third in

652
00:30:25,800 --> 00:30:29,200
Speaker 4: a lot of places, Odell, you know, Sean, any of

653
00:30:29,200 --> 00:30:31,440
Speaker 4: these guys. You know, I know you said you kind

654
00:30:31,440 --> 00:30:33,280
Speaker 4: of don't mind taking all of them, But I guess

655
00:30:33,280 --> 00:30:34,640
Speaker 4: who would you put at the bottom of the tier.

656
00:30:34,920 --> 00:30:37,240
Speaker 4: Let's put it that way. You know, Antonio Brown, Mike Evans,

657
00:30:37,240 --> 00:30:38,520
Speaker 4: Where does the tier cut off?

658
00:30:38,680 --> 00:30:40,640
Speaker 3: Elite guys, and why do you have the guy rank

659
00:30:40,680 --> 00:30:41,400
Speaker 3: lowis that you do?

660
00:30:41,680 --> 00:30:43,960
Speaker 5: So the guy I have cutting it off would be

661
00:30:44,000 --> 00:30:46,720
Speaker 5: Mike Evans at eight, but I wouldn't actually mind him

662
00:30:46,760 --> 00:30:49,479
Speaker 5: falling to me. I think the guy that I'm mostly

663
00:30:49,520 --> 00:30:52,520
Speaker 5: avoiding in this tier usually because he goes, you know,

664
00:30:52,560 --> 00:30:54,920
Speaker 5: before you can even get him. But Michael Thomas is

665
00:30:54,920 --> 00:30:57,080
Speaker 5: the only guy, and I'm a bit worried about just

666
00:30:57,160 --> 00:30:59,520
Speaker 5: he showed last year that his floor is pretty low.

667
00:31:00,040 --> 00:31:01,760
Speaker 5: You know, along with Drew Brees. There were seven games

668
00:31:01,840 --> 00:31:03,840
Speaker 5: last year where Drew Brees through for under two hundred

669
00:31:03,840 --> 00:31:05,959
Speaker 5: and twenty yards. They're just not the same offense as

670
00:31:06,000 --> 00:31:09,200
Speaker 5: before where you know they're shooting for five thousand passing yards.

671
00:31:09,200 --> 00:31:11,440
Speaker 5: So you know, Thomas had I think it's four times

672
00:31:11,520 --> 00:31:13,760
Speaker 5: last year he finished outside of the top fifty. And

673
00:31:13,800 --> 00:31:16,080
Speaker 5: you kind of alluded to earlier when when we're targeting

674
00:31:16,080 --> 00:31:19,760
Speaker 5: guys in this tier, we just want the ultimate high ceiling,

675
00:31:19,840 --> 00:31:23,080
Speaker 5: high floor typer receiver and they all kind of provide that.

676
00:31:23,120 --> 00:31:25,680
Speaker 5: But Thomas, I don't know, his floor just seems a

677
00:31:25,720 --> 00:31:28,960
Speaker 5: little low. Hopefully, you know, tra Quan Smith having a

678
00:31:29,040 --> 00:31:31,960
Speaker 5: year two breakout, or Ted Gin being healthy, or you

679
00:31:31,960 --> 00:31:34,800
Speaker 5: know Jared Cook can distract the defenses enough where they

680
00:31:34,840 --> 00:31:37,600
Speaker 5: can give him some consistent usage, and you know defenses

681
00:31:37,640 --> 00:31:40,800
Speaker 5: Kansas double team him in certain matchups. So but you know,

682
00:31:40,840 --> 00:31:42,600
Speaker 5: the guy that I'm just kind of shining away from

683
00:31:42,600 --> 00:31:44,680
Speaker 5: a bit in this tier would be Michael Thomas.

684
00:31:44,840 --> 00:31:47,040
Speaker 1: I get that, but he is in that second tier.

685
00:31:47,080 --> 00:31:49,520
Speaker 1: For me, my second tier goes deeper than your Sean.

686
00:31:49,560 --> 00:31:52,040
Speaker 1: I've got another player who I'm trying to shy away from,

687
00:31:52,080 --> 00:31:56,200
Speaker 1: and that's Antonio Brown, mister sweetfeet if you see him

688
00:31:56,240 --> 00:31:58,840
Speaker 1: on Instagram. But I also have Amari Cooper in that

689
00:31:58,920 --> 00:32:02,000
Speaker 1: second tier, and I'm not going to take him where

690
00:32:02,040 --> 00:32:05,600
Speaker 1: I'm taking Michael Thomas, Mike Evans, I'll probably even take

691
00:32:05,640 --> 00:32:08,320
Speaker 1: ab out of a Mark Cooper. But I love the

692
00:32:08,360 --> 00:32:12,440
Speaker 1: consistency and targets that he got with the Cowboys. Last year.

693
00:32:12,720 --> 00:32:14,720
Speaker 1: He had seven or more targets in nine of eleven

694
00:32:14,760 --> 00:32:18,400
Speaker 1: games with Dallas. And I'm a big believer in Kellen Moore.

695
00:32:18,520 --> 00:32:21,880
Speaker 1: That's the new play caller for the Cowboys. He's keeping

696
00:32:21,880 --> 00:32:23,840
Speaker 1: the playbook from last year because he came up in

697
00:32:23,880 --> 00:32:26,440
Speaker 1: that playbook when he entered the NFL, and I think

698
00:32:26,480 --> 00:32:28,200
Speaker 1: he's going to be far more creative. He's got that

699
00:32:28,240 --> 00:32:31,640
Speaker 1: Boise State background, he's a coach's son, he loves football,

700
00:32:31,640 --> 00:32:34,800
Speaker 1: He's played quarterback, and I think that Amari Cooper might

701
00:32:34,840 --> 00:32:37,719
Speaker 1: be able to scrap thirteen hundred yards and nine touchdowns

702
00:32:37,720 --> 00:32:40,480
Speaker 1: this year, which is a lot. We never see Amari

703
00:32:40,520 --> 00:32:43,000
Speaker 1: Cooper get numbers like that, but I think that something

704
00:32:43,040 --> 00:32:45,760
Speaker 1: you can definitely get to. And so he would probably

705
00:32:45,800 --> 00:32:48,400
Speaker 1: be toward the bottom of my second tier.

706
00:32:48,880 --> 00:32:51,320
Speaker 4: And I think that's interesting because that's when you start

707
00:32:51,360 --> 00:32:54,480
Speaker 4: thinking about quarterback, because you know, I'm starting to kind

708
00:32:54,520 --> 00:32:56,440
Speaker 4: of feel the same way about Odell kind of at

709
00:32:56,480 --> 00:32:57,960
Speaker 4: the high end of that tier, even though he does

710
00:32:58,000 --> 00:33:00,719
Speaker 4: have some injury concerns, because I just think Baker Mayfield

711
00:33:00,760 --> 00:33:03,760
Speaker 4: gives a tremendous upside and it's the reason we're not

712
00:33:04,080 --> 00:33:05,880
Speaker 4: totally worried about you know, I think all of us

713
00:33:06,040 --> 00:33:09,480
Speaker 4: have Juju Smith Schuster ahead of Antonio Brown because we're

714
00:33:09,520 --> 00:33:14,240
Speaker 4: not really worried about Ben Roethlisberger, especially, you know, when

715
00:33:14,280 --> 00:33:16,480
Speaker 4: ab now is going to have to catch passes from cars.

716
00:33:16,560 --> 00:33:19,120
Speaker 4: So I think the interesting thing, and it kind of

717
00:33:19,120 --> 00:33:21,840
Speaker 4: applies to to not only Cooper but also Antonio Brown,

718
00:33:21,920 --> 00:33:26,800
Speaker 4: is that these are Amari Cooper's positional ADPs so wide

719
00:33:26,840 --> 00:33:29,440
Speaker 4: receiver ADPs all four years of his career and then

720
00:33:29,440 --> 00:33:32,080
Speaker 4: his actual finish. His rookie year, he was the wide

721
00:33:32,120 --> 00:33:36,560
Speaker 4: receiver fourteen and ADP finished twenty first. Twenty sixteen, he

722
00:33:36,600 --> 00:33:39,920
Speaker 4: was the wide receiver twelve and ADP finished sixteenth, twenty

723
00:33:39,920 --> 00:33:43,200
Speaker 4: seventeen the wide receiver eight and ADP finished thirty fourth,

724
00:33:43,440 --> 00:33:47,560
Speaker 4: and then twenty eighteen the wide receiver fourteen in ADP

725
00:33:47,960 --> 00:33:51,800
Speaker 4: and finished thirty third. So Amari Cooper has never outkicked

726
00:33:51,840 --> 00:33:56,479
Speaker 4: his rank, or should we say, Derek Carr's guy has

727
00:33:56,600 --> 00:33:58,240
Speaker 4: never you know, because I think that's what it comes

728
00:33:58,240 --> 00:34:01,040
Speaker 4: down to, and that really now, I think it's the

729
00:34:01,080 --> 00:34:03,360
Speaker 4: one reason for paulse with Antonio Brown, because I mean,

730
00:34:03,520 --> 00:34:04,160
Speaker 4: let's be serious.

731
00:34:04,160 --> 00:34:05,400
Speaker 3: You know, Yeah, he had a little bit of a

732
00:34:05,480 --> 00:34:06,800
Speaker 3: drop off last year. I think some of that was

733
00:34:06,840 --> 00:34:07,760
Speaker 3: due to Roethlisberger.

734
00:34:08,200 --> 00:34:10,120
Speaker 4: If this guy is right, he's still the best receiver

735
00:34:10,200 --> 00:34:12,759
Speaker 4: in football on talent. I think no worse than two,

736
00:34:13,120 --> 00:34:15,680
Speaker 4: maybe three, depending how you feel about Hulio and Odell.

737
00:34:15,800 --> 00:34:18,480
Speaker 4: But you know, is Carr concerned for Antonio Brown?

738
00:34:18,760 --> 00:34:21,840
Speaker 1: Uh? Yeah, big one. When you think about Antonio Brown

739
00:34:21,880 --> 00:34:24,919
Speaker 1: and who he's caught touchdowns from and I'm talking every

740
00:34:24,960 --> 00:34:28,719
Speaker 1: single touchdown he's ever caught. It's from Roethlisberger. They spent

741
00:34:28,840 --> 00:34:32,879
Speaker 1: six years together. They had incredible chemistry. It was a good,

742
00:34:32,880 --> 00:34:36,880
Speaker 1: aggressive offense that had everything you could ask for, including

743
00:34:37,120 --> 00:34:40,279
Speaker 1: another receiver. Typically there was another receiver playing across from

744
00:34:40,320 --> 00:34:42,960
Speaker 1: AB to help AB stay away from double coverage, not

745
00:34:43,040 --> 00:34:45,600
Speaker 1: that double coverage was a problem for him. And I

746
00:34:46,040 --> 00:34:48,000
Speaker 1: just think that Derek Carr is a huge step down,

747
00:34:48,400 --> 00:34:50,320
Speaker 1: I really do. I don't think he's going to be

748
00:34:50,360 --> 00:34:53,759
Speaker 1: able to put up type of numbers with Brown that

749
00:34:53,800 --> 00:34:57,280
Speaker 1: were used to seeing Roethlisberger put up much less Brown

750
00:34:57,320 --> 00:35:00,640
Speaker 1: put up. And I think Antonio again, and if he's right,

751
00:35:01,160 --> 00:35:03,680
Speaker 1: I feel like his ceiling is maybe twelve hundred yards,

752
00:35:03,719 --> 00:35:07,839
Speaker 1: but maybe ten eleven touchdowns maybe, and even that might

753
00:35:07,880 --> 00:35:09,960
Speaker 1: be a little too aggressive. I'm trying to stay away

754
00:35:09,960 --> 00:35:12,600
Speaker 1: from Antonio Brown. I don't like his ADP, which is

755
00:35:12,680 --> 00:35:14,160
Speaker 1: like right around eighteen nineteen.

756
00:35:14,200 --> 00:35:16,640
Speaker 4: I believe I haven't been shying away from him, and

757
00:35:16,680 --> 00:35:18,920
Speaker 4: that's because I still do think he's I think his

758
00:35:19,000 --> 00:35:21,600
Speaker 4: ceiling yardage wise is a little bit higher because the

759
00:35:21,640 --> 00:35:24,320
Speaker 4: thing about car that worries me. He's not very aggressive.

760
00:35:24,320 --> 00:35:26,720
Speaker 4: He likes to just get rid of the ball really quickly.

761
00:35:26,880 --> 00:35:28,440
Speaker 4: Perhaps had something to do with the you know, injury

762
00:35:28,440 --> 00:35:30,839
Speaker 4: he sustained a couple of years ago. But I noticed

763
00:35:30,840 --> 00:35:33,680
Speaker 4: his completion percentage extremely high last year. Most of his

764
00:35:33,760 --> 00:35:36,560
Speaker 4: receivers high sixties or low seventies and catch it. So

765
00:35:36,600 --> 00:35:39,520
Speaker 4: I think, especially in PPR, ab could still get a

766
00:35:39,520 --> 00:35:41,360
Speaker 4: lot of catches. And when you're putting the ball in

767
00:35:41,400 --> 00:35:44,279
Speaker 4: his hands, good things tend to happen. So I'm not

768
00:35:44,360 --> 00:35:46,520
Speaker 4: shying away, but I do see your point. I think

769
00:35:46,560 --> 00:35:49,080
Speaker 4: the touchdowns is where you really worry, because I mean

770
00:35:49,160 --> 00:35:51,560
Speaker 4: Amari Cooper. We talked about Julio Marii Cooper, another guy

771
00:35:51,560 --> 00:35:54,319
Speaker 4: that until he went to Dallas, the touchdowns were not

772
00:35:54,360 --> 00:35:56,479
Speaker 4: really there for him. When we kind of talked about

773
00:35:56,480 --> 00:35:59,040
Speaker 4: the red zone struggles, and you know, Crabtree kind of

774
00:35:59,040 --> 00:36:01,440
Speaker 4: picks up the slack. So it's hard to say, but

775
00:36:02,120 --> 00:36:04,799
Speaker 4: I would say Antonio Brown closer to a Cooper than

776
00:36:04,840 --> 00:36:06,840
Speaker 4: a Crabtree in terms of his style of play.

777
00:36:07,120 --> 00:36:10,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, there's no doubt about that. And then John

778
00:36:10,120 --> 00:36:14,680
Speaker 1: Gruden's style, the offense that he's running, it's West Coast,

779
00:36:15,040 --> 00:36:17,479
Speaker 1: It's a lot of short passes, so last year, Derek

780
00:36:17,480 --> 00:36:19,640
Speaker 1: Carr was just doing exactly what John Gruden asked him

781
00:36:19,680 --> 00:36:22,560
Speaker 1: to do, which is throw it short, let the receiver

782
00:36:22,600 --> 00:36:24,759
Speaker 1: make a play after the catch. You'd like to think

783
00:36:24,800 --> 00:36:28,520
Speaker 1: that that would fit Antonio Brown perfectly, but I mean

784
00:36:28,520 --> 00:36:30,839
Speaker 1: there were times last year where ab was freelancing out

785
00:36:30,840 --> 00:36:34,720
Speaker 1: there and rod he and Roethlisberger weren't on the same page,

786
00:36:35,160 --> 00:36:39,000
Speaker 1: and there's there will be some growing pains between those

787
00:36:39,040 --> 00:36:42,080
Speaker 1: two this year. It will not be a seamless transition.

788
00:36:42,600 --> 00:36:44,920
Speaker 1: And it just scares me off of Antonio Brown as

789
00:36:44,960 --> 00:36:45,680
Speaker 1: the second rounder.

790
00:36:45,920 --> 00:36:47,520
Speaker 4: I mean, who would have thought we'd be sitting here

791
00:36:47,520 --> 00:36:50,240
Speaker 4: in twenty nineteen and let's say you start your draft

792
00:36:50,719 --> 00:36:53,040
Speaker 4: Todd drowey Antonio Brown, and you wouldn't You might not

793
00:36:53,080 --> 00:36:55,960
Speaker 4: be feeling that great about it. I mean, that's how

794
00:36:56,000 --> 00:36:57,800
Speaker 4: much these things can kind of change in a heartbeat.

795
00:36:57,840 --> 00:37:00,080
Speaker 4: But Sean, I'm gonna kick it to you because one

796
00:37:00,080 --> 00:37:01,839
Speaker 4: thing we haven't talked about yet, really it is tight

797
00:37:01,960 --> 00:37:06,440
Speaker 4: end And I'll start with you. When is the appropriate

798
00:37:06,520 --> 00:37:10,840
Speaker 4: time to draft Travis Kelcey Well.

799
00:37:10,640 --> 00:37:14,799
Speaker 5: I mean, once the top five running backs are off

800
00:37:14,800 --> 00:37:17,479
Speaker 5: the board, I think you can make a case that's

801
00:37:17,520 --> 00:37:21,000
Speaker 5: the appropriate time and take them. I haven't been that

802
00:37:21,120 --> 00:37:24,000
Speaker 5: ball typically, but I wouldn't, you know, argue if someone does.

803
00:37:24,480 --> 00:37:26,840
Speaker 5: Just you know, the thing with tight end and doing

804
00:37:26,880 --> 00:37:31,440
Speaker 5: tiers and projections, you just understand position scarcity. And I

805
00:37:31,520 --> 00:37:34,440
Speaker 5: have about a forty point drop off from Kelsey to

806
00:37:34,560 --> 00:37:37,600
Speaker 5: the other two tight ends, and then there's another thirty

807
00:37:37,600 --> 00:37:40,320
Speaker 5: five point drop off from there. So when you take Kelsey,

808
00:37:40,400 --> 00:37:43,200
Speaker 5: you're just locking in that massive drop off. So you know,

809
00:37:43,239 --> 00:37:44,880
Speaker 5: when you're in a draft, you're kind of trying to

810
00:37:44,880 --> 00:37:46,920
Speaker 5: take advantage of these drop offs with tiers. And I

811
00:37:46,920 --> 00:37:49,279
Speaker 5: have Kelsey and a tier all by himself. So I

812
00:37:49,280 --> 00:37:52,120
Speaker 5: think if you have, you know, picked seven through ten,

813
00:37:52,280 --> 00:37:55,000
Speaker 5: you could really consider taking Kelsey and then you still

814
00:37:55,040 --> 00:37:57,520
Speaker 5: will probably get one of the top elite wide receivers

815
00:37:57,520 --> 00:37:59,279
Speaker 5: we're talking about, and I think that's a really good

816
00:37:59,320 --> 00:38:02,120
Speaker 5: start and then you can you know, attack running back

817
00:38:02,480 --> 00:38:04,799
Speaker 5: for rounds three and four. But I think when it

818
00:38:04,800 --> 00:38:06,560
Speaker 5: comes to tight end, I kind of just let the

819
00:38:06,640 --> 00:38:09,400
Speaker 5: draft come to me. You have these specific tiers at

820
00:38:09,440 --> 00:38:12,439
Speaker 5: tight end where you know, based on how your league

821
00:38:12,520 --> 00:38:15,440
Speaker 5: is drafting it kind of it just essentially makes my

822
00:38:15,520 --> 00:38:18,400
Speaker 5: tight end case for me. So the only real decision

823
00:38:18,440 --> 00:38:21,160
Speaker 5: I have to make is between pick seven through ten,

824
00:38:21,680 --> 00:38:23,640
Speaker 5: do you go with Kelsey? And I think the answer

825
00:38:24,160 --> 00:38:26,560
Speaker 5: is yes. If he falls to you a round two,

826
00:38:26,719 --> 00:38:29,120
Speaker 5: you should absolutely scoop him up. There's absolutely no reason

827
00:38:29,440 --> 00:38:31,239
Speaker 5: he should be falling to round two just based on

828
00:38:31,320 --> 00:38:34,080
Speaker 5: the position scarcely in the drop off between the top

829
00:38:34,080 --> 00:38:34,640
Speaker 5: three guys.

830
00:38:34,960 --> 00:38:38,279
Speaker 1: A fantasy manager has to decide how important tight end

831
00:38:38,400 --> 00:38:41,560
Speaker 1: is to him or before going into the draft. And

832
00:38:41,640 --> 00:38:43,239
Speaker 1: if you look at the tight ends and you say,

833
00:38:43,239 --> 00:38:45,000
Speaker 1: you know what, I think Eman Ingram can have a

834
00:38:45,040 --> 00:38:47,319
Speaker 1: breakout year, or OJ Howard can break out, or Hunter

835
00:38:47,360 --> 00:38:49,600
Speaker 1: Henry is going to be, you know, as better than

836
00:38:49,600 --> 00:38:53,239
Speaker 1: he's ever been, then taking Travis Kelcey early probably isn't

837
00:38:53,280 --> 00:38:55,720
Speaker 1: for you. And if you're the type of fantasy manager

838
00:38:55,719 --> 00:38:58,960
Speaker 1: who likes to stream tight ends, maybe you like to

839
00:38:59,000 --> 00:39:01,520
Speaker 1: stab yourself in the eye with that or something like that.

840
00:39:01,600 --> 00:39:03,600
Speaker 1: You know, whatever you like to do for fun, that's

841
00:39:03,600 --> 00:39:05,919
Speaker 1: on you. But if you like to stream tight ends,

842
00:39:05,920 --> 00:39:07,600
Speaker 1: then you're not going to take a tight end early.

843
00:39:07,960 --> 00:39:10,600
Speaker 1: I think you get such an advantage in your lineup

844
00:39:10,880 --> 00:39:12,920
Speaker 1: when you get one of those big three tight ends.

845
00:39:13,000 --> 00:39:18,040
Speaker 1: Kelsey kit alerts that it's worth grabbing them sooner than

846
00:39:18,040 --> 00:39:21,080
Speaker 1: you're used to grabbing them in fantasy, and when you're

847
00:39:21,120 --> 00:39:23,759
Speaker 1: picking late in round one and early in round two,

848
00:39:24,200 --> 00:39:27,160
Speaker 1: you're gonna look goofy for taking killer Ertz with either

849
00:39:27,200 --> 00:39:29,520
Speaker 1: of those picks. So really the only one that there's

850
00:39:29,520 --> 00:39:31,920
Speaker 1: a question in taking is Kelsey. And if you want

851
00:39:31,960 --> 00:39:33,319
Speaker 1: to beat the rest of your league to the punch,

852
00:39:33,360 --> 00:39:34,879
Speaker 1: you have to do it in the first round. So

853
00:39:35,040 --> 00:39:36,319
Speaker 1: I don't know if I can pull the trigger on

854
00:39:36,360 --> 00:39:40,400
Speaker 1: Travis Kelcey between fifth and ninth overall, but tenth overall,

855
00:39:40,440 --> 00:39:43,000
Speaker 1: I think is the spot where you can grab Kelsey.

856
00:39:43,320 --> 00:39:46,719
Speaker 1: You're taking him away from the drafters at the eleven spot.

857
00:39:46,719 --> 00:39:48,759
Speaker 1: In the twelve spot, they'll each have two picks, and

858
00:39:48,800 --> 00:39:51,960
Speaker 1: then you're still getting a really good player, probably a

859
00:39:52,040 --> 00:39:55,000
Speaker 1: receiver in the second round. And then you, in theory,

860
00:39:55,360 --> 00:39:57,520
Speaker 1: don't have to worry about tight end for the rest

861
00:39:57,520 --> 00:40:00,040
Speaker 1: of the year. You've got your stud. He's going to

862
00:40:00,040 --> 00:40:02,520
Speaker 1: play like a wide receiver one in your tight end spot.

863
00:40:02,640 --> 00:40:05,480
Speaker 1: If you happen to find a great wide receiver later on,

864
00:40:05,880 --> 00:40:08,360
Speaker 1: be it in the drafter on waivers, your lineup is

865
00:40:08,360 --> 00:40:11,160
Speaker 1: going to be so strong compared to everybody else in

866
00:40:11,160 --> 00:40:14,640
Speaker 1: the league. So I agree Travis Kelce. If he's there

867
00:40:14,680 --> 00:40:16,200
Speaker 1: a round two, you take him, and even if he's

868
00:40:16,239 --> 00:40:18,080
Speaker 1: there in late round one, you should take him.

869
00:40:18,320 --> 00:40:20,839
Speaker 4: If someone goes ahead and employs that strategy, they draft

870
00:40:20,880 --> 00:40:23,480
Speaker 4: Kelsey perhaps in round one. A guy who they're going

871
00:40:23,560 --> 00:40:26,680
Speaker 4: to be faced with potentially taking because they skipped out

872
00:40:26,719 --> 00:40:29,560
Speaker 4: on a running back is Todd Gurley. Where are you

873
00:40:29,600 --> 00:40:31,680
Speaker 4: on Todd Gurley? How early is too early?

874
00:40:31,840 --> 00:40:35,920
Speaker 1: I am so far away from Todd Gurley, that's it

875
00:40:36,320 --> 00:40:39,640
Speaker 1: is kind of funny. I talked with his trainer about

876
00:40:39,760 --> 00:40:42,640
Speaker 1: a month ago, maybe a little less than a month ago,

877
00:40:43,080 --> 00:40:46,360
Speaker 1: and he basically confirmed that he's got an arthritic condition

878
00:40:46,400 --> 00:40:48,600
Speaker 1: in his knee, also confirm that he's not going to

879
00:40:48,640 --> 00:40:50,960
Speaker 1: play in the preseason. And you guys already know that

880
00:40:51,000 --> 00:40:53,759
Speaker 1: he didn't do anything in mini camp. He's going to

881
00:40:53,800 --> 00:40:56,920
Speaker 1: take it easy in training camp. So I'm nervous about

882
00:40:57,000 --> 00:41:00,319
Speaker 1: him holding up for sixteen. But I'm encouraged by the

883
00:41:00,400 --> 00:41:03,080
Speaker 1: Rams letting him loose against the Chargers in a joint

884
00:41:03,080 --> 00:41:07,640
Speaker 1: practice and that just happened this past weekend. And maybe

885
00:41:07,640 --> 00:41:11,400
Speaker 1: there's a chance that Todd Gurley stays healthy for sixteen games,

886
00:41:11,840 --> 00:41:15,400
Speaker 1: but it almost feels like that knee is a bomb

887
00:41:15,480 --> 00:41:17,640
Speaker 1: waiting to go off, and you don't know if it's

888
00:41:17,640 --> 00:41:19,160
Speaker 1: going to happen in the middle of the game. You

889
00:41:19,160 --> 00:41:20,880
Speaker 1: don't know if it's going to happen on a practice

890
00:41:20,880 --> 00:41:23,880
Speaker 1: on Wednesday or a Thursday. If his knee gets inflamed,

891
00:41:23,960 --> 00:41:25,319
Speaker 1: is he going to sit out for a week? Does

892
00:41:25,320 --> 00:41:28,120
Speaker 1: it extend to two or three weeks? And is he

893
00:41:28,239 --> 00:41:29,680
Speaker 1: still going to get the twenty two and a half

894
00:41:29,719 --> 00:41:31,920
Speaker 1: touches per game that he had last year? And I

895
00:41:31,920 --> 00:41:33,719
Speaker 1: think the answer to that one is an easy no.

896
00:41:34,239 --> 00:41:37,640
Speaker 1: After they drafted Darryl Anderson and brought back Malcolm Brown.

897
00:41:38,120 --> 00:41:42,080
Speaker 1: So because I'm nervous about Todd Gurley, and because somebody

898
00:41:42,120 --> 00:41:44,400
Speaker 1: in every single draft will be the opposite of me,

899
00:41:44,640 --> 00:41:47,239
Speaker 1: they will be excited to get Todd Gurley, You're going

900
00:41:47,320 --> 00:41:49,160
Speaker 1: to see him going round two or maybe even late

901
00:41:49,239 --> 00:41:53,040
Speaker 1: round one. I'm out until probably closer to thirtieth overall,

902
00:41:53,360 --> 00:41:55,200
Speaker 1: which means I'm not getting and I don't want the

903
00:41:55,200 --> 00:41:56,520
Speaker 1: headache of having him oo.

904
00:41:57,480 --> 00:41:59,480
Speaker 4: I mean, you know, I totally get it. I think

905
00:41:59,719 --> 00:42:01,920
Speaker 4: you got his game logs down the stretch. Over the

906
00:42:01,960 --> 00:42:04,839
Speaker 4: last five games, including a postseason, he did not get

907
00:42:04,840 --> 00:42:07,560
Speaker 4: more than sixteen carries in any game. As well as

908
00:42:07,600 --> 00:42:10,120
Speaker 4: four in a game, and that was against the Sense

909
00:42:10,120 --> 00:42:12,920
Speaker 4: and the Saints in the NFC title game. So the

910
00:42:12,960 --> 00:42:14,560
Speaker 4: touches the carriers are going to go down. I think

911
00:42:14,560 --> 00:42:16,680
Speaker 4: the only case you can make for him is the

912
00:42:16,680 --> 00:42:19,680
Speaker 4: touchdowns will probably still be there, probably.

913
00:42:19,280 --> 00:42:21,160
Speaker 3: Will be used in high leverage situations.

914
00:42:21,280 --> 00:42:24,640
Speaker 4: If you're gonna kind of conserve him, I think it

915
00:42:24,640 --> 00:42:27,120
Speaker 4: would make sense to kind of use him when you're

916
00:42:27,120 --> 00:42:29,960
Speaker 4: trying to score or a key you know, key passing downs.

917
00:42:29,960 --> 00:42:32,400
Speaker 4: But you know, I have no doubt that the touches

918
00:42:32,480 --> 00:42:38,160
Speaker 4: will go down. Sean, you know, you got Gurley here.

919
00:42:38,560 --> 00:42:40,719
Speaker 4: You know you could take stud wide receivers. That's usually

920
00:42:40,800 --> 00:42:43,520
Speaker 4: what you're doing. So that so that kind of means

921
00:42:43,840 --> 00:42:47,160
Speaker 4: if you're taking these stud receivers here, who are the

922
00:42:47,280 --> 00:42:50,680
Speaker 4: running backs? I guess that you're kind of fading early

923
00:42:50,719 --> 00:42:51,160
Speaker 4: in drafts?

924
00:42:51,400 --> 00:42:51,840
Speaker 3: Is Gurly?

925
00:42:52,120 --> 00:42:53,759
Speaker 4: Is it because you have guys like Gurley and just

926
00:42:53,800 --> 00:42:55,920
Speaker 4: talk to me about you know, Gurley Cook, Damian Williams,

927
00:42:56,480 --> 00:42:59,560
Speaker 4: Frozen Pine, frozen Pond guys. Maybe you know, talk to

928
00:42:59,600 --> 00:43:01,839
Speaker 4: me about how you know, how you feel about them

929
00:43:01,920 --> 00:43:03,960
Speaker 4: and why you're kind of going with the receivers over them.

930
00:43:04,520 --> 00:43:07,160
Speaker 5: Yeah, I guess you could call the bottom half of

931
00:43:07,280 --> 00:43:10,040
Speaker 5: RB one frozen pond, But that's not really the point

932
00:43:10,040 --> 00:43:11,840
Speaker 5: of it, because I do think they are all, you know,

933
00:43:11,960 --> 00:43:14,520
Speaker 5: amazing running backs. Last year the frozen pond was like,

934
00:43:15,360 --> 00:43:18,800
Speaker 5: you know, Jordan Howard and Alex Collins going super early,

935
00:43:18,880 --> 00:43:21,880
Speaker 5: So that was more of an indictment on them and

936
00:43:21,920 --> 00:43:23,520
Speaker 5: their ability than anything.

937
00:43:23,520 --> 00:43:25,839
Speaker 2: But yeah, I mean I'm on the same page as Dave.

938
00:43:25,960 --> 00:43:27,920
Speaker 5: You know, Todd Gurley would have to fall to me

939
00:43:28,560 --> 00:43:32,120
Speaker 5: at the end of round three to consider him. But yeah,

940
00:43:32,320 --> 00:43:34,399
Speaker 5: when it comes to the first few rounds we talked

941
00:43:34,400 --> 00:43:36,320
Speaker 5: about all the time, you're just basically trying to avoid

942
00:43:36,400 --> 00:43:38,839
Speaker 5: land mines, and you know, Todd Gurley has such a

943
00:43:38,880 --> 00:43:41,880
Speaker 5: wide range of outcomes that you know a potential bust

944
00:43:42,280 --> 00:43:42,960
Speaker 5: is a reality.

945
00:43:43,080 --> 00:43:47,200
Speaker 2: So I typically target guys where you know.

946
00:43:47,600 --> 00:43:50,040
Speaker 5: They're a smaller range of outcomes we know we're going

947
00:43:50,120 --> 00:43:52,000
Speaker 5: to get early in the draft, and then at the

948
00:43:52,239 --> 00:43:54,360
Speaker 5: you know, towards the mid rounds or later in the draft,

949
00:43:54,440 --> 00:43:57,080
Speaker 5: I go for wide range outcomes because that means we're

950
00:43:57,080 --> 00:43:59,880
Speaker 5: getting that massive upside. So Todd Girle had been of

951
00:44:00,320 --> 00:44:02,520
Speaker 5: also because he's just not part of my draft plan.

952
00:44:03,320 --> 00:44:05,040
Speaker 5: You know, he could fall to the end of round

953
00:44:05,040 --> 00:44:08,279
Speaker 5: two or early round three, where somebody's gonna scoop him up,

954
00:44:08,280 --> 00:44:10,920
Speaker 5: but those people already have a stud running back usually,

955
00:44:11,000 --> 00:44:13,280
Speaker 5: so it doesn't really make sense to take a second

956
00:44:13,320 --> 00:44:15,520
Speaker 5: running back there anyway. I think you should be taking

957
00:44:15,640 --> 00:44:19,279
Speaker 5: two receivers, like you mentioned, So even for him to

958
00:44:19,280 --> 00:44:20,960
Speaker 5: even fit in my draft plan, he's gonna have to

959
00:44:21,000 --> 00:44:22,759
Speaker 5: fall all the way to the round three, and even then,

960
00:44:23,280 --> 00:44:26,360
Speaker 5: I just think he's too scary right now to trust

961
00:44:26,400 --> 00:44:29,160
Speaker 5: All year that I've been just letting someone else snag him,

962
00:44:29,160 --> 00:44:31,880
Speaker 5: and usually someone does. Usually somebody reaches for him in

963
00:44:31,920 --> 00:44:34,560
Speaker 5: the second or early third. So I've been getting almost

964
00:44:34,680 --> 00:44:36,000
Speaker 5: zero shares of Gurley so far.

965
00:44:36,480 --> 00:44:38,920
Speaker 1: I can tell you that the reason why people draft

966
00:44:38,920 --> 00:44:43,040
Speaker 1: Girly in late round two is because they are intoxicated

967
00:44:43,080 --> 00:44:46,879
Speaker 1: with the idea of a lineup with Ezekiel Elliott and

968
00:44:46,960 --> 00:44:51,160
Speaker 1: Todd Gurley and Todd Gurley, because you put those two

969
00:44:51,239 --> 00:44:53,919
Speaker 1: names together and you think, well, that's it. I'm gonna

970
00:44:53,920 --> 00:44:56,479
Speaker 1: win my fantasy league. It's over. I've got them both.

971
00:44:57,160 --> 00:44:59,239
Speaker 1: I've got the two best running backs in football. That's

972
00:44:59,280 --> 00:45:01,520
Speaker 1: what a lot of people are going to think. And

973
00:45:01,560 --> 00:45:04,319
Speaker 1: they're just not They're not weighing the risk that's there

974
00:45:04,360 --> 00:45:06,480
Speaker 1: with Todd Gurley. If you go back and look at

975
00:45:06,480 --> 00:45:10,880
Speaker 1: his playoff games, he had four nice plays four and

976
00:45:11,160 --> 00:45:12,520
Speaker 1: I don't think he had a ton of carries. That

977
00:45:12,560 --> 00:45:14,600
Speaker 1: might have represented about ten percent of what he had.

978
00:45:15,040 --> 00:45:18,040
Speaker 1: But the Rams ran twenty nine red zone plays in

979
00:45:18,080 --> 00:45:22,080
Speaker 1: the playoffs and Gurley was in on seven of them.

980
00:45:22,400 --> 00:45:24,319
Speaker 1: So that sends out to me when you talk about

981
00:45:24,360 --> 00:45:28,200
Speaker 1: those high leverage opportunities, Well, if Todd Gurley is anywhere

982
00:45:28,280 --> 00:45:31,399
Speaker 1: close to being himself, wouldn't you put him in more

983
00:45:31,440 --> 00:45:35,040
Speaker 1: of those opportunities in the playoffs in the super Bowl

984
00:45:35,080 --> 00:45:38,520
Speaker 1: when you're trying to to you know, win the Lombardi

985
00:45:39,280 --> 00:45:42,120
Speaker 1: That Really, when I saw that, that gave me even

986
00:45:42,160 --> 00:45:44,680
Speaker 1: more pause on Gurley this year.

987
00:45:45,560 --> 00:45:49,000
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think my favorite strategy for Girly if you

988
00:45:49,040 --> 00:45:51,480
Speaker 4: are going to target him, is try to trade him

989
00:45:51,800 --> 00:45:54,400
Speaker 4: after because I think I think he is healthier than

990
00:45:54,440 --> 00:45:56,120
Speaker 4: he was down the stretch, because I think he got

991
00:45:56,160 --> 00:45:58,760
Speaker 4: hurt what was it that in that crazy game against

992
00:45:58,760 --> 00:46:01,960
Speaker 4: the Chiefs or aggravated the knee in that game and

993
00:46:02,080 --> 00:46:03,600
Speaker 4: from then on I think they tried to give him

994
00:46:03,719 --> 00:46:06,360
Speaker 4: one more big workload the next week and it didn't

995
00:46:06,440 --> 00:46:08,720
Speaker 4: you know, after that it was just all sixteen carries

996
00:46:08,760 --> 00:46:09,839
Speaker 4: and under as well as four.

997
00:46:10,200 --> 00:46:12,400
Speaker 3: But I think he's healthier than that, at least right now. Now.

998
00:46:12,440 --> 00:46:15,399
Speaker 3: How long he stays that healthy remains to be seen.

999
00:46:15,480 --> 00:46:17,359
Speaker 4: But if he starts off the year with a couple

1000
00:46:17,400 --> 00:46:18,879
Speaker 4: of big games and people are like, oh, hey, Todd

1001
00:46:18,920 --> 00:46:22,320
Speaker 4: Gurley's back, He's still getting his double digit touches, he's efficient,

1002
00:46:22,920 --> 00:46:25,200
Speaker 4: somebody will probably over pay for him then. So if

1003
00:46:25,200 --> 00:46:26,960
Speaker 4: you're going to be the person to overpay for him

1004
00:46:27,239 --> 00:46:30,120
Speaker 4: in a draft, at least try to make one of

1005
00:46:30,120 --> 00:46:32,279
Speaker 4: your fellow league mates overpay for him and get even more,

1006
00:46:32,360 --> 00:46:34,440
Speaker 4: get your you know, value back for him, and kind

1007
00:46:34,440 --> 00:46:37,920
Speaker 4: of lock yourself in in better shape for those fantasy playoffs.

1008
00:46:37,960 --> 00:46:40,760
Speaker 4: That's kind of where I'm at with Todd Gurley entering

1009
00:46:41,360 --> 00:46:41,920
Speaker 4: this season.

1010
00:46:41,960 --> 00:46:45,440
Speaker 3: But Dave, what about Melvin Gordon? You know, what should

1011
00:46:45,480 --> 00:46:47,200
Speaker 3: people do with him? Because you have Zeke?

1012
00:46:47,680 --> 00:46:49,880
Speaker 4: You know, I think you got to take him forth

1013
00:46:50,160 --> 00:46:54,160
Speaker 4: because just the holdout situation, where do you where do

1014
00:46:54,200 --> 00:46:57,600
Speaker 4: you value Melvin Gordon, who, even if he comes back,

1015
00:46:57,680 --> 00:46:59,480
Speaker 4: could be involved in a you know, perhaps a three

1016
00:46:59,520 --> 00:47:02,120
Speaker 4: back committe and we don't know where he's gonna go

1017
00:47:02,120 --> 00:47:03,440
Speaker 4: if he gets traded, we don't know how many games

1018
00:47:03,480 --> 00:47:04,400
Speaker 4: he's gonna miss it, if any.

1019
00:47:04,440 --> 00:47:06,680
Speaker 3: He struggled with injuries, Like, what do you do with them?

1020
00:47:06,840 --> 00:47:10,680
Speaker 1: Chris? I am downright disrespectful with my ranking of Melvin

1021
00:47:10,719 --> 00:47:15,759
Speaker 1: Gordon in the in the situation that he's put himself in.

1022
00:47:16,560 --> 00:47:19,279
Speaker 1: I'm not looking at him until a round five. I

1023
00:47:19,320 --> 00:47:22,480
Speaker 1: don't I don't want to deal with it. And we're

1024
00:47:22,520 --> 00:47:25,160
Speaker 1: talking about a franchise. They when they drafted Melvin Gordon,

1025
00:47:25,719 --> 00:47:28,560
Speaker 1: they did it to replace Ryan Matthews. When they drafted

1026
00:47:28,640 --> 00:47:33,040
Speaker 1: Ryan Matthews, they replaced the Danian Tomlinson with him. The

1027
00:47:33,440 --> 00:47:36,400
Speaker 1: Chargers screw up a lot of things, but they know

1028
00:47:36,600 --> 00:47:39,040
Speaker 1: when to move on from a running back. They know

1029
00:47:39,120 --> 00:47:42,720
Speaker 1: how to properly value a running back. From what I've read,

1030
00:47:42,800 --> 00:47:45,040
Speaker 1: it sounds like they're giving him ten million a year

1031
00:47:45,360 --> 00:47:47,600
Speaker 1: and he's turning it down. Did you see the video

1032
00:47:47,719 --> 00:47:51,480
Speaker 1: from last year of Melvin Gordon talking about Leveon Bell

1033
00:47:51,800 --> 00:47:55,359
Speaker 1: and he agreed with Leveon's holdout strategy and Leveon sat

1034
00:47:55,400 --> 00:47:58,840
Speaker 1: out the whole year. So Melvin's got a pretty unique

1035
00:47:58,960 --> 00:48:02,719
Speaker 1: view of himself and he clearly thinks that he's worth

1036
00:48:02,760 --> 00:48:05,719
Speaker 1: more than what the Chargers are offering, and the Chargers

1037
00:48:06,040 --> 00:48:08,040
Speaker 1: aren't going to change what they're offering to get him

1038
00:48:08,040 --> 00:48:12,279
Speaker 1: in camp because he just he's good. But the injuries

1039
00:48:12,440 --> 00:48:14,799
Speaker 1: play a role, and I don't know how much longer

1040
00:48:14,840 --> 00:48:16,480
Speaker 1: he's going to be able to keep this up. And

1041
00:48:16,520 --> 00:48:18,840
Speaker 1: now he's not going to participate in training camp, so

1042
00:48:18,920 --> 00:48:21,319
Speaker 1: whenever he does come back, he's not going to be

1043
00:48:21,600 --> 00:48:23,600
Speaker 1: We can't look at him the same way and say, oh, yeah,

1044
00:48:23,600 --> 00:48:26,360
Speaker 1: everything's gonna be fined. Melvin Gordon's back to being the

1045
00:48:26,360 --> 00:48:29,120
Speaker 1: fifth best running back in fantasy. Can't say that anymore.

1046
00:48:29,480 --> 00:48:32,959
Speaker 1: Could come back and tweak a hamstring or strain his knee,

1047
00:48:33,000 --> 00:48:35,640
Speaker 1: and next thing you know, he's out for three or

1048
00:48:35,640 --> 00:48:38,520
Speaker 1: four games, which you can't put past Melvin Gordon. I

1049
00:48:38,560 --> 00:48:40,399
Speaker 1: want nothing to do with him, Dave.

1050
00:48:40,440 --> 00:48:42,719
Speaker 4: I love that you said that, because I went back

1051
00:48:42,719 --> 00:48:44,920
Speaker 4: and I put all the running back holdouts in a spreadsheet.

1052
00:48:44,960 --> 00:48:47,600
Speaker 4: Contract disputes included all put him on a spreadsheet. It

1053
00:48:47,640 --> 00:48:50,320
Speaker 4: turns out that the Median miss games due to a

1054
00:48:50,360 --> 00:48:52,680
Speaker 4: holdout for those backs, and granted it's only about I

1055
00:48:52,680 --> 00:48:55,399
Speaker 4: think eighteen or so, it's not a ton going back

1056
00:48:55,440 --> 00:48:58,040
Speaker 4: since they went to a sixteen game season, but the

1057
00:48:58,080 --> 00:49:01,279
Speaker 4: media miss games is zero to do miss games due

1058
00:49:01,320 --> 00:49:03,320
Speaker 4: to a holdout, which is you know, maybe a quarter

1059
00:49:03,360 --> 00:49:05,840
Speaker 4: of them only miss you know, they missed under five games.

1060
00:49:05,880 --> 00:49:08,200
Speaker 3: Most of them are missing two or less. However, they're

1061
00:49:08,200 --> 00:49:09,239
Speaker 3: missing thirty.

1062
00:49:08,960 --> 00:49:12,439
Speaker 4: Percent more games due to injury than your average back.

1063
00:49:12,719 --> 00:49:15,279
Speaker 4: So it's evening out to the point to where, yeah,

1064
00:49:15,320 --> 00:49:17,680
Speaker 4: you're exactly right. These guys aren't practicing with the team,

1065
00:49:17,680 --> 00:49:19,640
Speaker 4: they're not working out, they're not playing. And I guess

1066
00:49:19,640 --> 00:49:21,680
Speaker 4: that's a concern for Girley too, who's really not going

1067
00:49:21,760 --> 00:49:23,480
Speaker 4: to do much in the preseason, which is why we

1068
00:49:23,520 --> 00:49:25,440
Speaker 4: are looking at Okay, he was unleashing the joint practice

1069
00:49:25,480 --> 00:49:28,520
Speaker 4: and that's like Newsworthy because when you when these running

1070
00:49:28,520 --> 00:49:30,879
Speaker 4: backs don't practice and they're just you're taking so many

1071
00:49:30,960 --> 00:49:33,680
Speaker 4: hits that I think it just opens you up to

1072
00:49:33,719 --> 00:49:36,680
Speaker 4: more injuries. So, yeah, it's a different situation than Bell

1073
00:49:36,719 --> 00:49:39,000
Speaker 4: a little bit because Gordon, if he's not going to

1074
00:49:39,040 --> 00:49:42,200
Speaker 4: be back, you know, he could get fined essentially every day.

1075
00:49:42,200 --> 00:49:44,480
Speaker 4: And if he's not going to be back with the team,

1076
00:49:44,560 --> 00:49:46,400
Speaker 4: you know, sometimes when you resign a guy to the

1077
00:49:46,400 --> 00:49:48,480
Speaker 4: same team, you know, they kind of just wave the fines.

1078
00:49:48,520 --> 00:49:50,360
Speaker 4: But I don't know how that would work if he

1079
00:49:50,360 --> 00:49:52,080
Speaker 4: doesn't come back to the charges next year and just

1080
00:49:52,080 --> 00:49:54,439
Speaker 4: sits out the whole year. Bell was not signed because

1081
00:49:54,440 --> 00:49:56,719
Speaker 4: he didn't sign his his franchise tender, and so he

1082
00:49:56,719 --> 00:49:59,560
Speaker 4: wasn't incurring any type of fines or any anything for

1083
00:50:00,239 --> 00:50:01,640
Speaker 4: than sitting out and leaving.

1084
00:50:01,680 --> 00:50:03,399
Speaker 3: So different situation, but I agree.

1085
00:50:03,400 --> 00:50:05,000
Speaker 4: I think the misgame risk is enough that I don't

1086
00:50:05,000 --> 00:50:08,480
Speaker 4: want anything to do with Gordon at this point. All right,

1087
00:50:08,520 --> 00:50:10,040
Speaker 4: let's go a little quicker just to you know, a

1088
00:50:10,040 --> 00:50:11,640
Speaker 4: couple more things that I think people want to know

1089
00:50:11,640 --> 00:50:16,239
Speaker 4: about these top fifty quarterback. We all know what the

1090
00:50:16,280 --> 00:50:18,279
Speaker 4: upside of Mahomes is because we saw it last year.

1091
00:50:18,320 --> 00:50:20,240
Speaker 4: So I'm just gonna go to each of you guys,

1092
00:50:20,280 --> 00:50:22,719
Speaker 4: just tell me the earliest round you would draft Mahomes

1093
00:50:23,400 --> 00:50:26,520
Speaker 4: in a regular you know, ten or twelve team league.

1094
00:50:27,040 --> 00:50:33,120
Speaker 5: Dave, I'll start with you four. Sew for me drafting five.

1095
00:50:33,160 --> 00:50:35,279
Speaker 5: But if someone takes them in round three, I think

1096
00:50:35,280 --> 00:50:35,960
Speaker 5: that's about right.

1097
00:50:36,800 --> 00:50:37,759
Speaker 3: Yeah. Same here for me.

1098
00:50:37,800 --> 00:50:39,680
Speaker 4: It's like I gotta I gotta have I think too.

1099
00:50:40,040 --> 00:50:42,960
Speaker 4: You know, two guys at each position, two studs at

1100
00:50:43,040 --> 00:50:46,040
Speaker 4: running back and receiver, and then to be filming pretty

1101
00:50:46,080 --> 00:50:50,719
Speaker 4: good about taking Mahomes. It's just, you know, we know

1102
00:50:50,760 --> 00:50:53,920
Speaker 4: what the upside is, but if you're starting only one quarterback,

1103
00:50:53,960 --> 00:50:56,799
Speaker 4: you're gonna be able to capture enough of that value

1104
00:50:56,880 --> 00:50:59,360
Speaker 4: later on that that it's just so much more valuable

1105
00:50:59,400 --> 00:51:02,600
Speaker 4: to have these at running back and wide receiver. Let's

1106
00:51:02,600 --> 00:51:05,000
Speaker 4: get into these third and fourth rounds. We talked a

1107
00:51:05,040 --> 00:51:07,680
Speaker 4: lot about our strategies over these first couple of rounds.

1108
00:51:07,719 --> 00:51:10,360
Speaker 4: How we got these guys ranked. Dave, I'll start with

1109
00:51:10,400 --> 00:51:12,800
Speaker 4: you just a couple of guys in the third and fourth.

1110
00:51:12,920 --> 00:51:16,399
Speaker 4: You know, early fifth, that top fifty that you are

1111
00:51:16,440 --> 00:51:19,600
Speaker 4: targeting to kind of build around the studs that you

1112
00:51:19,680 --> 00:51:20,839
Speaker 4: drafted in rounds one and two.

1113
00:51:21,239 --> 00:51:24,040
Speaker 1: I like Cooper Cup. If I can get him as

1114
00:51:24,040 --> 00:51:27,360
Speaker 1: close to fiftieth as possible, I think he's going to

1115
00:51:27,400 --> 00:51:29,560
Speaker 1: be better than Robert Woods this year. I think Cooks

1116
00:51:29,600 --> 00:51:31,200
Speaker 1: is probably going to be the best one of the three.

1117
00:51:31,680 --> 00:51:34,920
Speaker 1: Cooks has the track record. Consistency isn't really there for him.

1118
00:51:34,960 --> 00:51:36,560
Speaker 1: But he's either going to be great for your team

1119
00:51:36,640 --> 00:51:38,319
Speaker 1: or he's going to disappoint you a little bit. But

1120
00:51:38,520 --> 00:51:41,120
Speaker 1: I understand why Cooks is going to go first. But

1121
00:51:41,160 --> 00:51:43,120
Speaker 1: I think Cup picks up where he left off. We

1122
00:51:43,160 --> 00:51:45,480
Speaker 1: know that he's practicing in full. He's going to be

1123
00:51:45,480 --> 00:51:48,239
Speaker 1: that red zone guy for the Rams. I think he's

1124
00:51:48,280 --> 00:51:51,160
Speaker 1: got a chance to keep the touchdowns coming for him.

1125
00:51:51,560 --> 00:51:54,160
Speaker 1: Calvin Ridley's another receiver that I like a lot. I'm

1126
00:51:54,200 --> 00:51:56,920
Speaker 1: finding him after fiftieth overall, so maybe he doesn't quite

1127
00:51:56,960 --> 00:51:59,040
Speaker 1: apply to the conversation, but I do have him ranked

1128
00:51:59,080 --> 00:52:01,439
Speaker 1: as a top fifty wide receiver. And it just goes

1129
00:52:01,480 --> 00:52:03,040
Speaker 1: back to what I was saying about the Falcons, how

1130
00:52:03,080 --> 00:52:05,800
Speaker 1: I believe that they're going to be very pass heavy

1131
00:52:05,840 --> 00:52:08,360
Speaker 1: this year in a lot of high scoring games, and

1132
00:52:08,400 --> 00:52:11,440
Speaker 1: playing opposite Julio Jones is typically a really good thing.

1133
00:52:11,760 --> 00:52:14,320
Speaker 1: And I'll give you three running backs that I would

1134
00:52:14,320 --> 00:52:16,640
Speaker 1: consider in the top fifty again toward the end of

1135
00:52:16,680 --> 00:52:20,239
Speaker 1: that top fifty, Chris Carson with the Seahawks, Montgomery with

1136
00:52:20,320 --> 00:52:24,000
Speaker 1: the Bears, and Mark Ingram with the Ravens. And I

1137
00:52:24,160 --> 00:52:27,800
Speaker 1: can't quite get a firm grip on how I want

1138
00:52:27,920 --> 00:52:30,480
Speaker 1: to rank them. I know I like Carson the best

1139
00:52:30,480 --> 00:52:32,799
Speaker 1: of the three, and I think I like Montgomery a

1140
00:52:32,800 --> 00:52:34,960
Speaker 1: little bit more than Ingram, But I could see myself

1141
00:52:34,960 --> 00:52:37,640
Speaker 1: flipping those two. I don't like that Ingram's twenty nine,

1142
00:52:37,840 --> 00:52:40,040
Speaker 1: But I love the spot that he's in, the fact

1143
00:52:40,080 --> 00:52:42,880
Speaker 1: that the Ravens are going to be certainly run focused,

1144
00:52:42,920 --> 00:52:46,759
Speaker 1: if not run heavy. He's got room on his zodometer

1145
00:52:46,960 --> 00:52:51,400
Speaker 1: for one more big carry season, and I think, you know,

1146
00:52:51,440 --> 00:52:54,560
Speaker 1: Lamar Jackson will probably steal like five or six shortyarded

1147
00:52:54,640 --> 00:52:56,839
Speaker 1: touchdowns from him along the way, but it doesn't mean

1148
00:52:56,880 --> 00:52:59,120
Speaker 1: that he can't catch a couple and maybe run for

1149
00:52:59,160 --> 00:53:01,760
Speaker 1: five or six of his. So it's a real close

1150
00:53:01,760 --> 00:53:03,359
Speaker 1: call between them. But I like all three of those

1151
00:53:03,440 --> 00:53:06,920
Speaker 1: running backs better than guys like Philip Lindsay, better than

1152
00:53:06,920 --> 00:53:09,359
Speaker 1: Melvin Gordon, better than Sony Michelle, and as long as

1153
00:53:09,360 --> 00:53:10,800
Speaker 1: he's hurt, better than Derrick Henry.

1154
00:53:11,200 --> 00:53:13,600
Speaker 4: Yeah, Chris Carson is really that guy for me. I mean,

1155
00:53:13,680 --> 00:53:16,000
Speaker 4: twenty point five touches per game from Week three on.

1156
00:53:16,320 --> 00:53:17,640
Speaker 4: You know, the first couple weeks they were kind of

1157
00:53:17,640 --> 00:53:20,640
Speaker 4: feeling things out with the rotation, but they love him

1158
00:53:20,760 --> 00:53:23,279
Speaker 4: in Seattle and when he's healthy, they love him. Even

1159
00:53:23,480 --> 00:53:25,239
Speaker 4: in the past game as a blocker even if he's

1160
00:53:25,239 --> 00:53:27,000
Speaker 4: not going to catch. I mean, Rashad Penny only had

1161
00:53:27,040 --> 00:53:29,080
Speaker 4: one target on third or fourth down last year, didn't

1162
00:53:29,080 --> 00:53:31,000
Speaker 4: really play at all in the playoffs, so I think

1163
00:53:31,000 --> 00:53:34,640
Speaker 4: he'll be involved, but I think Carson is that lead guy. Sean,

1164
00:53:34,680 --> 00:53:37,759
Speaker 4: how about you guys you're targeting in rounds three, four,

1165
00:53:37,960 --> 00:53:38,840
Speaker 4: and early fifth.

1166
00:53:39,239 --> 00:53:41,680
Speaker 5: So for me, I haven't broken down, you know, based

1167
00:53:41,719 --> 00:53:43,840
Speaker 5: on draft pick. I think if you have an early

1168
00:53:43,920 --> 00:53:47,040
Speaker 5: pick round three, you're typically trying to lock in those

1169
00:53:47,400 --> 00:53:50,839
Speaker 5: two the two top remaining wide receivers from the lower

1170
00:53:50,960 --> 00:53:53,399
Speaker 5: end of wide receiver one or high end wide receiver two,

1171
00:53:53,560 --> 00:53:55,759
Speaker 5: because you already have your said running back, so you're

1172
00:53:55,760 --> 00:53:58,120
Speaker 5: loading up on receiver there. Then mid round I think

1173
00:53:58,160 --> 00:54:01,000
Speaker 5: that's where George Kittle and Acher should go. So if

1174
00:54:01,000 --> 00:54:03,480
Speaker 5: you have a middle third round pick, no matter what

1175
00:54:03,520 --> 00:54:05,520
Speaker 5: you were doing in the first two rounds, you go

1176
00:54:05,680 --> 00:54:07,719
Speaker 5: to scoop up one of those guys, and then at

1177
00:54:07,719 --> 00:54:11,280
Speaker 5: the end of round three you have my dream slot

1178
00:54:11,280 --> 00:54:13,560
Speaker 5: where I already have two stet receivers and then I'm

1179
00:54:13,600 --> 00:54:16,640
Speaker 5: just attacking, you know, whatever running backs are available in

1180
00:54:16,680 --> 00:54:20,160
Speaker 5: this RB two tier, like Josh Jacobs, Kiri On Johnson,

1181
00:54:20,280 --> 00:54:22,799
Speaker 5: Marlon Mack, Derek Henry, Give me any of those guys

1182
00:54:22,840 --> 00:54:24,839
Speaker 5: at the end of round three, and then round four

1183
00:54:24,880 --> 00:54:29,160
Speaker 5: is actually pretty interesting. That's essentially just you know, taking position,

1184
00:54:29,520 --> 00:54:32,280
Speaker 5: positional need I think round four should just be running

1185
00:54:32,320 --> 00:54:35,000
Speaker 5: backs and wide receivers. You know someone will reach for

1186
00:54:35,440 --> 00:54:37,759
Speaker 5: QB there, but just let them do it. I think

1187
00:54:37,840 --> 00:54:40,520
Speaker 5: right there, depending on your ratio of running back to receivers,

1188
00:54:40,520 --> 00:54:43,680
Speaker 5: you're just locking in your second starter from the opposite position.

1189
00:54:43,800 --> 00:54:47,359
Speaker 5: So you know guys like DeVante Freeman, Derek Henry, Aaron Jones.

1190
00:54:47,080 --> 00:54:47,759
Speaker 2: I'll fall there.

1191
00:54:48,520 --> 00:54:52,800
Speaker 5: Receivers like Chris Godwin, Robert Woods. I'm all about getting

1192
00:54:52,840 --> 00:54:54,759
Speaker 5: those guys if I need a receiver. So I think

1193
00:54:54,840 --> 00:54:56,560
Speaker 5: round four is where you start to get flexible, but

1194
00:54:56,600 --> 00:54:59,319
Speaker 5: it's typically based on what position you're in need of.

1195
00:54:59,920 --> 00:55:01,239
Speaker 3: H I think that's where I'm at too.

1196
00:55:01,680 --> 00:55:03,840
Speaker 4: I really love that kind of back end of that

1197
00:55:03,880 --> 00:55:06,800
Speaker 4: top twenty running backs in rounds three and four. Your Henry's,

1198
00:55:06,800 --> 00:55:09,239
Speaker 4: your Josh Jacobs is, guys like that. I think at

1199
00:55:09,239 --> 00:55:10,840
Speaker 4: that range, if you can kind of double up on

1200
00:55:10,880 --> 00:55:13,279
Speaker 4: those guys, it opens up a lot. So you can

1201
00:55:13,400 --> 00:55:15,320
Speaker 4: kind of do that from almost a middle of the

1202
00:55:15,440 --> 00:55:18,680
Speaker 4: draft on all right, last question before we get out

1203
00:55:18,680 --> 00:55:23,320
Speaker 4: of here, Dave, somebody you're fading completely that's being drafted

1204
00:55:23,400 --> 00:55:24,520
Speaker 4: with a top fifty EIGHTYP.

1205
00:55:25,080 --> 00:55:29,000
Speaker 1: I am worried about Devonte Freeman being back to the

1206
00:55:29,040 --> 00:55:32,640
Speaker 1: guy that he was three years ago, that if you're

1207
00:55:32,719 --> 00:55:35,400
Speaker 1: drafting him as high as some people are drafting him.

1208
00:55:35,600 --> 00:55:37,920
Speaker 1: Last time I checked the Falcons, they're happy to have

1209
00:55:38,040 --> 00:55:40,360
Speaker 1: him and they're gonna make him their starter. But in

1210
00:55:40,400 --> 00:55:42,520
Speaker 1: his last fourteen games, when he was healthy on the

1211
00:55:42,520 --> 00:55:45,279
Speaker 1: field participating, I know Tevin Coleman was there, he had

1212
00:55:45,280 --> 00:55:47,759
Speaker 1: fifteen or fewer touches in ten of those games. In

1213
00:55:47,760 --> 00:55:50,160
Speaker 1: those fourteen games, he had five total touchdowns. He had

1214
00:55:50,239 --> 00:55:53,080
Speaker 1: one one hundred yard game. In twenty seventeen, the last

1215
00:55:53,120 --> 00:55:55,040
Speaker 1: time he played a lot, he had eight plays of

1216
00:55:55,080 --> 00:55:57,760
Speaker 1: twenty plus yards. He had two hundred and thirty two touches.

1217
00:55:58,000 --> 00:56:00,359
Speaker 1: Twenty seven years old. He doesn't have a one hundred

1218
00:56:00,360 --> 00:56:02,319
Speaker 1: and thirty four career carries. It's because he missed so

1219
00:56:02,400 --> 00:56:04,719
Speaker 1: much of the last season. And I still have a

1220
00:56:04,719 --> 00:56:07,360
Speaker 1: thought in my mind that the Falcons, even with Udosmith

1221
00:56:07,360 --> 00:56:09,080
Speaker 1: playing like crap in the Hall of Fame game, and

1222
00:56:09,160 --> 00:56:12,840
Speaker 1: so someone's gonna come along, whether it's Brian Hill, Kadria Allison,

1223
00:56:13,000 --> 00:56:15,960
Speaker 1: maybe Edo gets his act together and they're going to

1224
00:56:16,120 --> 00:56:18,920
Speaker 1: use two backs. I'm not certain that DeVonta Freeman is

1225
00:56:18,920 --> 00:56:21,480
Speaker 1: going to go right back to being eighteen to twenty

1226
00:56:21,520 --> 00:56:24,200
Speaker 1: touches per game and to be that dude for the

1227
00:56:24,200 --> 00:56:28,920
Speaker 1: Falcons offense. Given the team's concern about him staying healthy,

1228
00:56:29,320 --> 00:56:32,279
Speaker 1: and given his own health, I think the Falcons have

1229
00:56:32,360 --> 00:56:35,000
Speaker 1: to be concerned about him staying upright and effective for

1230
00:56:35,080 --> 00:56:35,960
Speaker 1: sixteen weeks.

1231
00:56:36,200 --> 00:56:38,880
Speaker 3: Sean, how about you, anyone you're vaiting in top fifty.

1232
00:56:39,239 --> 00:56:41,520
Speaker 5: I keep saying Damian Williams, if there were a frozen

1233
00:56:41,560 --> 00:56:43,719
Speaker 5: pond this year, he'd be the lone guy. And we

1234
00:56:43,760 --> 00:56:46,400
Speaker 5: all remember his four weeks stretch last year. He started

1235
00:56:46,600 --> 00:56:49,480
Speaker 5: once they like got cream Hunt and he was absolutely amazing.

1236
00:56:49,760 --> 00:56:52,000
Speaker 5: Going into this year, he could start with the similar role,

1237
00:56:52,120 --> 00:56:54,719
Speaker 5: getting around fifteen plus touches a game. I think we're

1238
00:56:54,760 --> 00:56:57,719
Speaker 5: just kind of letting his ceiling cloud our memory right now.

1239
00:56:57,800 --> 00:57:00,360
Speaker 5: He's just the guy I urge caution of still have

1240
00:57:00,440 --> 00:57:03,200
Speaker 5: him ranked RB thirteen and that's typically where he's going.

1241
00:57:03,320 --> 00:57:06,080
Speaker 5: But just the downside with him is so prominent that

1242
00:57:06,400 --> 00:57:09,200
Speaker 5: we're even seeing it start to unfold in training camp.

1243
00:57:09,280 --> 00:57:11,759
Speaker 5: He's been missing camp due to this hamstring injury, and

1244
00:57:11,719 --> 00:57:14,400
Speaker 5: Andreid I guess it's starting to get frustrated. So Carlos

1245
00:57:14,440 --> 00:57:16,760
Speaker 5: Hyde's been stepping in and then you still have rookie

1246
00:57:16,800 --> 00:57:19,360
Speaker 5: Darwin Thompson that's gonna, you know, threaten. So we're kind

1247
00:57:19,400 --> 00:57:22,080
Speaker 5: of already seeing the worst case scenario already starts unfold,

1248
00:57:22,200 --> 00:57:24,000
Speaker 5: which is a little bit earlier than I thought we'd

1249
00:57:24,000 --> 00:57:26,080
Speaker 5: see it. So it's just making me shy away from

1250
00:57:26,080 --> 00:57:27,880
Speaker 5: even more. And then remember that we were able to

1251
00:57:27,920 --> 00:57:30,960
Speaker 5: add Damian Williams in like week twelve or thirteen last year.

1252
00:57:30,960 --> 00:57:32,560
Speaker 5: There's gonna be guys like that at the end of

1253
00:57:32,560 --> 00:57:35,000
Speaker 5: the year that we can snag, So, you know, spending

1254
00:57:35,240 --> 00:57:37,200
Speaker 5: round two, round three capitol and a guy like that

1255
00:57:37,360 --> 00:57:39,400
Speaker 5: just is kind of a waste in my opinion. So

1256
00:57:39,600 --> 00:57:41,440
Speaker 5: he's been the player been fitting the most in the

1257
00:57:41,440 --> 00:57:42,280
Speaker 5: first few rounds.

1258
00:57:42,560 --> 00:57:43,680
Speaker 3: For me, it's Kenny Gallady.

1259
00:57:44,120 --> 00:57:45,560
Speaker 4: There's a lot of guys you can kind of get

1260
00:57:45,560 --> 00:57:47,720
Speaker 4: that are similar to him a little bit later on

1261
00:57:47,760 --> 00:57:51,120
Speaker 4: in the draft, guys like Aushon, Jeffrey Allen, Robinson Gallaude.

1262
00:57:51,200 --> 00:57:53,280
Speaker 4: With Marvin Jones back, it kind of creates a situation

1263
00:57:53,280 --> 00:57:55,560
Speaker 4: where you have two guys downfield threats. I just don't

1264
00:57:55,560 --> 00:57:58,200
Speaker 4: know if the weekly consistency will be there the same

1265
00:57:58,200 --> 00:58:01,320
Speaker 4: way it was this past season. That's where I'm at.

1266
00:58:01,440 --> 00:58:03,880
Speaker 4: But listeners are going to love this, Dave, So I

1267
00:58:04,000 --> 00:58:06,200
Speaker 4: really thank you for joining us, and I want you

1268
00:58:06,240 --> 00:58:08,680
Speaker 4: to tell everybody where they can find you and what

1269
00:58:08,720 --> 00:58:10,480
Speaker 4: you're working on throughout this fantasy season.

1270
00:58:10,600 --> 00:58:13,760
Speaker 1: On Twitter, it's at Dave Richard all one word. You

1271
00:58:13,760 --> 00:58:16,360
Speaker 1: can even google Dave Richard and you'll find everything that

1272
00:58:16,400 --> 00:58:19,240
Speaker 1: I've written. You'll find an archive, and you can hear

1273
00:58:19,320 --> 00:58:22,920
Speaker 1: me on the Fantasy Football Today podcast. And we've started

1274
00:58:22,920 --> 00:58:26,280
Speaker 1: a new streaming service. It's live twenty four to seven,

1275
00:58:26,320 --> 00:58:30,720
Speaker 1: three sixty five. It's called CBS Sports HQ. It's sports news, highlights,

1276
00:58:30,880 --> 00:58:33,480
Speaker 1: smart analysis, a lot of fantasy talk, a lot of

1277
00:58:33,520 --> 00:58:36,040
Speaker 1: gambling talk. So if you're just looking for something to

1278
00:58:36,080 --> 00:58:38,480
Speaker 1: put on in the background, or if there's breaking sports

1279
00:58:38,480 --> 00:58:40,760
Speaker 1: news and you want instant reaction, all you have to

1280
00:58:40,800 --> 00:58:43,720
Speaker 1: do is either download the free CBS Sports app or

1281
00:58:43,920 --> 00:58:47,080
Speaker 1: anything that has Wi Fi, go to cbssportshq dot com.

1282
00:58:47,240 --> 00:58:49,880
Speaker 1: You click a button and you're streaming. It costs nothing

1283
00:58:50,120 --> 00:58:52,160
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1284
00:58:52,160 --> 00:58:53,120
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1285
00:58:53,560 --> 00:58:55,400
Speaker 3: So there you go, folks, go check that out.

1286
00:58:55,600 --> 00:59:00,160
Speaker 4: Dave Richard, CBS Sports, check out CBS Sports HQ. You

1287
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Speaker 4: know where to find me. I'm at Chris Raybond. You

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Speaker 4: know where to find Sean. He's at the Underscore Odds

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Speaker 4: Maker on Twitter. Check out actionnetwork dot com for our

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Speaker 4: Fantasy Football two for twenty nineteen cheat sheet builder. You

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Speaker 4: can find all of our projections. You can select one

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Speaker 4: or all of our expert projections and get all the

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Speaker 4: stats that we're projecting.

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Speaker 3: You can input your league settings, all.

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Speaker 4: That good stuff, so be sure to check that out

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Speaker 4: on actionnetwork dot com, download the Action Network app, and

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Speaker 4: we'll be back at you later in the week.

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Speaker 3: Thanks a lot, guys, take care of