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Speaker 1: This is the Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: It is good.

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Speaker 1: All right.

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Speaker 2: Here we go.

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Speaker 1: Throwing him job spectacular. I'm saying it to catch to star.

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Speaker 3: We see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 3: go to win.

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Speaker 1: God, that's incredible. Big bank, small bank.

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Speaker 2: I like to make money.

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Speaker 1: All right. This is the ultimate kabata.

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Speaker 2: And we are underway.

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Speaker 1: Happy Thanksgiving, and welcome to the Action Network Podcast. I'm

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Speaker 1: your host, Chris Raybond, and this is your NFL Week

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Speaker 1: twelve betting preview with odds courtesy of bet MGM, the

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Speaker 1: official odds provider of the Action Network Podcast. I am

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Speaker 1: joined as always by my Action Network colleague, the Prime

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Speaker 1: Minister of Degenerate Nation, Stucky, Happy holiday, Stut. What's going on?

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Speaker 2: Not much, just fresh off of an another sweep.

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Speaker 1: Born a row for the pods. I think two by

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Speaker 1: mere than two by you, So.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, we got to get that elusive the double. Yes two.

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Speaker 2: You know it's Thanksgiving that I want to say two

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Speaker 2: things that I'm thankful for. One, all of the listeners

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Speaker 2: out there. We do appreciate all of you and hope

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Speaker 2: you enjoy the holiday, and hopefully we can bring you

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Speaker 2: some winners here.

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Speaker 1: Happy Thanksgiving gamblers, We're thankful for you.

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Speaker 2: And then also I'm thankful for the fact that I

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Speaker 2: don't believe the Cardinals play this weekend, which means that

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Speaker 2: I won't beat the clothes by a touchdown and lose money.

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Speaker 1: My guy did last week. Essentially, Yeah, that was my

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Speaker 1: biggest bet.

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Speaker 2: My biggest bet too. I would have taken it. I

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Speaker 2: had a plus two money line. It's happened three times

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Speaker 2: last four weeks. I can't I mean, I don't think

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Speaker 2: it might not ever happen again. I'm looking at the board. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: there's no I don't think there's a quarterback crushed by

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Speaker 2: figures that I'll get word that's out and then beat

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Speaker 2: the close by seven. So that was frustrating. They didn't

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Speaker 2: even cover the tease.

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Speaker 1: Nope, nope, But.

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Speaker 2: You know, squeaked out a winning Sunday thanks to the

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Speaker 2: Steelers which got there for us.

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Speaker 1: And miracle that.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, we are on to week twelve. Let's get into it.

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Speaker 1: Let's do it, and we'll start by previewing the Thanksgiving slate,

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Speaker 1: so we'll do all three games. We'll talk about those.

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Speaker 1: I actually do have bets on all three, so we

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Speaker 1: can get into that, and then we'll go through our

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Speaker 1: normal Sunday six Pack presented by the Athletic Brewing Company,

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Speaker 1: and our totals, our teasers, all that good stuff. Before

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Speaker 1: we kick things off, a few quick reminders. First, if

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Speaker 1: you planned to bet on any sport ever and you

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Speaker 1: still haven't downloaded the free, award winning Action Network app,

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Speaker 1: what are you doing. It's got betting tools, it lets

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Speaker 1: you shot for the best lines, it's got analysis from me, Stucky,

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Speaker 1: the whole Action Network team, and most importantly, it lets

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Speaker 1: you track every bet that you make. Second, if you

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Speaker 1: need to reference our Sunday Pack picks anytime, all you

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Speaker 1: gotta do is use the Action Network aps and follow

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Speaker 1: Sunday six Pack because we use that account to track

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Speaker 1: these picks there every Friday. And finally, this is one

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Speaker 1: of the best times of the year for gamblers and

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Speaker 1: also one of the most hectic. So thank you for

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Speaker 1: making us a part of your Thanksgiving week. Let's give

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Speaker 1: this money, all right, stuck, Let's get into Thanksgiving Day football.

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Speaker 3: We're on the bus getting ready to broadcast the traditional

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Speaker 3: Thanksgiving Day game between the Lions and the Bears this year.

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Speaker 3: And John, as you think about all the people around

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Speaker 3: the country sitting down to enjoy Thanksgiving with their friends

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Speaker 3: and their families.

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Speaker 1: We indeed have a lot to be thankful for.

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Speaker 4: The first Thanksgiving Day game ever played was here in

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Speaker 4: Detroit to Chicago Bears at Detroit, And to me, there's

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Speaker 4: nothing better. There's just certain things that go together, you know,

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Speaker 4: the turkey, the family, the tradition, football, and we have

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Speaker 4: it all today.

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Speaker 1: So Thanksgiving starts bright and early with maybe the ugliest

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Speaker 1: game of the week, Chicago going to Detroit. The Bears

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Speaker 1: three and a half point favorites, a total down to

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Speaker 1: forty one and a half. What do you think about

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Speaker 1: this one?

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Speaker 2: I actually played the Lions plus three and a half.

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Speaker 4: Hello Detroit.

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Speaker 2: You know, and if you're looking to avoid family talk,

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Speaker 2: because this is a game where if you don't have

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Speaker 2: any money on it, you're like, oh, I got to

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Speaker 2: catch up with my hand here because there's no reason

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Speaker 2: to watch what might be Jared Goff, what might be

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Speaker 2: our boy Tim Boyle against what looks like will be

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Speaker 2: Andy Dalton. And by the way, the Bears currently have

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Speaker 2: the longest winless streak in the NFL right now, despite

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Speaker 2: the Lions not having a win, they have a tie

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Speaker 2: in there, and the Bears have lost five straight. And

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Speaker 2: if you go back to the first time at these

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Speaker 2: two teams played, the Lions were right in it, right

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Speaker 2: they were. I believe their first four drives went down

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Speaker 2: into the red zone and they only scored once. I

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Speaker 2: mean that you had like fluky snaps and golf fumbles

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Speaker 2: and they were able to actually move the ball in

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Speaker 2: that game in Chicago. The Bears were minus three with

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Speaker 2: justin fields at home against Jared Goff a few weeks ago,

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Speaker 2: and the Bears ended up winning that game. Well, what

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Speaker 2: has changed since? Now? The Bears are minus three and

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Speaker 2: a half on the road at Detroit, and what has

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Speaker 2: changed since? Okay, I mean they both have covered in

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Speaker 2: close games, right, So I've really downgraded both of them.

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Speaker 2: And most importantly, I don't see a big difference between

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Speaker 2: fields Dalton. Actually think it's a slight upgrade, but you

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Speaker 2: lose the leg component and Dalton's not going to crush

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Speaker 2: you downfield and take advantage of this line secondary, especially

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Speaker 2: with what looks like no Alan Robinson. I also don't

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Speaker 2: think there's a big drop off between whether it's Golfer

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Speaker 2: or Tim Boyle, and the have suffered a lot of injuries.

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Speaker 2: I mentioned Robinson Khalil Mack is out for the year.

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Speaker 2: You know they recovered three fumbles in that game. He

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Speaker 2: recovered one of them. It doesn't look like a Keem

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Speaker 2: Hicks will play. I mean, they just have injuries across

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Speaker 2: the board. This is most likely the last chance for

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Speaker 2: the lines to get a win this year. I expect

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Speaker 2: you get their best effort again, pulling out all the stops.

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Speaker 2: You've seen the lines do this to start games and

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Speaker 2: trick plays. And look, the Bears just lost to Tyler

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Speaker 2: Huntley in excruciating fashion. They're three and seven. They're going

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Speaker 2: to Detroit like a team they already beat a winless team.

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Speaker 2: I think this team is done. I think Naggie's done.

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Speaker 2: I think this is the final nail in Naggie's coffin.

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Speaker 2: I'm rolling with the lines plus three and a half.

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Speaker 2: I make this game. You know there's some injury uncertainty

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Speaker 2: with the quarterbacks, but it's not going to swing it

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Speaker 2: one way or the other even if you started on

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Speaker 2: one of the teams. I make this closer to to

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Speaker 2: one one and a half and I'm rolling with Detroit.

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Speaker 2: Ties will work here.

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Speaker 1: Al I hope not. Because I have the spoy word.

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Speaker 1: I have to the Bears and my survivor pick this

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Speaker 1: week because there's really there's nothing to take here. But yeah,

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Speaker 1: it's a really shaky spot for Chicago. I played the

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Speaker 1: under in this game. You're not gonna see many points.

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Speaker 1: Both of these teams are three and seven towards the

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Speaker 1: under this year, and there's a reason for that. You

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Speaker 1: know you said you downgraded them a lot. Well, I'm

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Speaker 1: sure a lot of that happened on offense. I know

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Speaker 1: the Bears have some injuries on defense, but you saw

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Speaker 1: what kind of games they both played last week sixteen

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Speaker 1: thirteen for the Bears with a backup quarterback the Lions

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Speaker 1: with you know, a backup quarterback themselves and then playing

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Speaker 1: a backup Cowiberg quarterback because Baker Mayfield ain't right, and

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Speaker 1: they played a thirteen to ten game. So I expect

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Speaker 1: more of the same. It's a divisional game, wait in

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Speaker 1: the year, second divisional game. I expect it to be tight.

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Speaker 1: I don't expect I don't expect the offenses to be

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Speaker 1: able to put in too many wrinkles just because it

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Speaker 1: is a short week. So I think you're gonna get

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Speaker 1: just a straight up game played by both teams. It

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Speaker 1: probably will be close, but I don't see it high score,

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Speaker 1: and so like the under on this one even more

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Speaker 1: than I like even more than I like a side,

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Speaker 1: just because the Lions they just always find a way

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Speaker 1: to screw things up. But I can't disagree with that necessarily,

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Speaker 1: especially when you're getting the hook at three and a half.

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Speaker 1: But under is my favorite playing this one.

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Speaker 2: This should be the night game, the eight o'clock after

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Speaker 2: the family's all gone, you have all your food, and

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Speaker 2: you can nap in and out throughout the whole game.

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Speaker 1: It should just be the you know in Maddie, you

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Speaker 1: could just quick sim at Super sim just to the

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Speaker 1: end of the game, just like it shouldn't have to

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Speaker 1: play this one, just like, just like, play this on

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Speaker 1: Madden and tell us what happened again.

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Speaker 3: I have the Thanksgiving We got a tour ducking right, Yeah, this.

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Speaker 4: Thing here is a D bone duck stuffed in a

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Speaker 4: D bone chicken stuffed in a D bone turkey. We're

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Speaker 4: stuffing now, you're talking.

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Speaker 1: All right, Let's go to Vegas at Dallas. So this

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Speaker 1: is actually the biggest spread of the week. Dallas is

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Speaker 1: favored by seven and a half. The totals fifty one

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Speaker 1: Dallas without Amari Cooper due to COVID, likely without cd waam.

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Speaker 1: I know there's some reports that he may play. I

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Speaker 1: don't think he's gonna be able to clear the protocol

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Speaker 1: on a quick turnaround. But what do you think of

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Speaker 1: this game?

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Speaker 2: Really? What makes you say that? Because that's that's an

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Speaker 2: important aspect of this.

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Speaker 1: The initial reports were that he wasn't and then like

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Speaker 1: there was like team like people within the team were like, Oh,

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Speaker 1: he's doing well, he's in meetings, like but like, look

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Speaker 1: at team optimism is like a little different from the

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Speaker 1: initial reports or that he's gonna miss the game. So

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Speaker 1: I still think he might not be able to get cleared.

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Speaker 1: You hardly ever see a guy get cleared for a

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Speaker 1: Thursday from a Sunday game, So I mean, we'll see.

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Speaker 1: But yeah, I mean it obviously is big, but I'm

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Speaker 1: not expecting him to be cleared.

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Speaker 2: I make this right around seven, assuming you know, with

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Speaker 2: some of the injury uncertainty, the Cowboys potentially could get

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Speaker 2: de Marcus Lawrence back. That's up in the air as well.

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Speaker 2: I think Tyron Smith is gonna come back. From what

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Speaker 2: I'm hearing, it looks like he's good to go. That's

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Speaker 2: big to get him back in the fold, especially in

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Speaker 2: this matchup. I mean, that's basically what the Raiders have

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Speaker 2: to rely on. Now. You know they have two corners

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Speaker 2: that are that are playing pretty well. Yeah, but everything

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Speaker 2: starts with the pressure that they're able to generate. Makes

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Speaker 2: job easier on the back end. You know, if Dak's

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Speaker 2: able to get time here, even without Lamb, he should

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Speaker 2: have success in the short to intermediary term. You know,

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Speaker 2: you have Gallop back in the mix, and the Cowboys

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Speaker 2: can go run heavy here and have success running against

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Speaker 2: the Raiders. And I was actually really impressed with the

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Speaker 2: Cowboys defense last week without Lawrence, without Gregory, they held

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Speaker 2: up pretty well. Their numbers continue to be up toward

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Speaker 2: the top of the league. And the longer you go,

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Speaker 2: the bigger sample size, that's it's more meaningful. Michael Parson

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Speaker 2: is just unbelievable. I mean, you just the Cowboys are

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Speaker 2: going to be really scary obviously once they get Cooper

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Speaker 2: and you know, lambback, and their offensive line is healthy,

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Speaker 2: and then this defense has all their pieces because you

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Speaker 2: can have Gregory, who's one of the top He's been

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Speaker 2: one of the best edg rushers in the NFL lawrence

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Speaker 2: and then like you can. I mean, Parsons is playing

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Speaker 2: it at like a top five level just as an

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Speaker 2: edge rusher. But you can use him as an edge rusher.

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Speaker 2: You can move him all around the field when you

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Speaker 2: have long and that's a step becomes really scary and

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Speaker 2: tough for teams to defend using him as a chess piece.

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Speaker 2: That just his speed is unbelievable to watch. But I

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Speaker 2: think Dallas should bounce back here at home. There's something

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Speaker 2: off with the Raiders. I generally like them as an

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Speaker 2: underdog and CAR they just seem like one of those

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Speaker 2: teams that plays up and down to teams. But I

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Speaker 2: just haven't liked the way that this team is trending.

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Speaker 2: Maybe all of the things that they've had to deal

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Speaker 2: with the coaching and drugs and it's just caught up

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Speaker 2: to them and they're tired. But there's probably the offensive

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Speaker 2: line as issues. I think Dallas has shown that they

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Speaker 2: can generate pressure without blitzing using Parsons. That's how you

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Speaker 2: get to CAR. I think Dallas wins this game. Decent

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Speaker 2: teaser piece, decent money online prolaite piece. I think the

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Speaker 2: line is about right with bumpet a little bit if

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Speaker 2: Lamp comes back at and Smith and Lawrence. But I

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Speaker 2: think regardless, it'll be right around.

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Speaker 1: Seven playing the under in this game. I think it's

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Speaker 1: a couple of points too high, kind of because of

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Speaker 1: what you mentioned. I think people look at these two

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Speaker 1: teams and a vision kind of a shootout. Bad defenses.

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Speaker 1: But Dallas is number four in defensive DVOA. And remember

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Speaker 1: that schedule adjustice they did hel with the Chiefs to

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Speaker 1: nineteen last week, you know, just when it looked like

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Speaker 1: the Chiefs were getting it back together, their ninth in

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Speaker 1: pressure rate even without you know a lot of their

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Speaker 1: top pressure guys that you would think would be their

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Speaker 1: top pressure guys on the d line for much of

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Speaker 1: the year. Vegas is also you know fifteenth. They have

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Speaker 1: in Gokway and Crosby. They're they're getting pressure. I think,

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Speaker 1: you know, I think Dallas can control the game, but

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Speaker 1: I don't think it's going to be one of those

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Speaker 1: games where you know, both teams getting the shootout. I

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Speaker 1: think they're at least one of these offenses, if not

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Speaker 1: both are liveble to be a little bit under expectation. Again,

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Speaker 1: I'm not expecting Lamb to play, and that is big

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Speaker 1: I mean, you know, he's not going to practice probably

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Speaker 1: either way. He sat out of practice Tuesday as we

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Speaker 1: record this, so he's only got you know, estimated out Monday,

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Speaker 1: you know, Tuesday no practice, so you know they're not

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Speaker 1: going to do anything crazy with him. I think it helps,

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Speaker 1: you know, when when Dak doesn't have practice time lay

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Speaker 1: and he may not have you know, his full complement

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Speaker 1: of weapons, because what are the Raiders do. They play

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Speaker 1: a lot of single high so you know, missing you

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Speaker 1: know already Cooper, but then potentially another one year way weapons.

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Speaker 1: You know, that's not good for Dallas. So I think

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Speaker 1: I think this is the under game. I think the

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Speaker 1: public is probably going to come in on the over,

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Speaker 1: so you may, you know, if Lamb is ruled in

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Speaker 1: or whatever not, you may get to a fifty one

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Speaker 1: and a half, maybe a fifty two. I played it

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Speaker 1: at UH at fifty one because I you know, I'm

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Speaker 1: just going off the report that Lamb wasn't going to

280
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Speaker 1: play initially, But either way, you probably could wait and

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Speaker 1: get an even better number if he isn't de ruled in.

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Speaker 1: Me either way, I like the under in this game.

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Speaker 2: I'm assuming that with Smith back or even without Smith back,

284
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Speaker 2: you know, and say, if Lamb is not playing, Cooper

285
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Speaker 2: is out, the offensive line should have a major advantage

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Speaker 2: in run blocking up front. So I think Dallas will

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Speaker 2: go pretty run heavy here. They did this, They did

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Speaker 2: that against the Chargers and that game went way under

289
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Speaker 2: I think you could see a really run heavy game

290
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Speaker 2: script here if you look at some of the advanced metrics.

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Speaker 2: I think you could see Dallas controlling the clock with

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Speaker 2: a now fully healthy offensive line in those two backs

293
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Speaker 2: and then setting up the short passes so you could

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Speaker 2: have the clock bleeding throughout here.

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Speaker 1: And the reason we're getting such a high total, you

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Speaker 1: know it is it is indoors. You know, That's the

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Speaker 1: thing about all these games. So I think that's another

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Speaker 1: thing that you get a little bit of value here

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Speaker 1: on some of these totals because they're getting bumped up

300
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Speaker 1: a little bit because, as you know, they're playing them

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Speaker 1: indoors for so people can stay warm on Thanksgiving.

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Speaker 2: By the way, it's very interesting that all six teams

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Speaker 2: that are playing on Thanksgiving lost on Sunday. They're all

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Speaker 2: coming off of a loss. I don't know why this is,

305
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Speaker 2: Maybe you have an opinion on it, but Thanksgiving NFL

306
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Speaker 2: favorites are thirty two and fourteen against the spread since

307
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Speaker 2: two thousand and five, thirty two and fourteen. If you

308
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Speaker 2: look at favorites of seven or more, they've also crushed.

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Speaker 2: I don't necessarily another reason other than we have seen

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Speaker 2: favorites on Thursdays, yep, dominate short weeks, So I think

311
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Speaker 2: that's more talented team generally has the events and the

312
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Speaker 2: teams that are usually heavier favorites most more times than not,

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Speaker 2: they have a better coaching staff. Something to keep in

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Speaker 2: my favorites have crushed on Thanksgiving historically over the past

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Speaker 2: fifteen years.

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Speaker 1: And also I think a big part of that the

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Speaker 1: Lions play on Thanksgiving every year, so you know that,

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Speaker 1: I'm sure that plays into it. Try all right, let's

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Speaker 1: go to the final game. The primetime game here, Buffalo

320
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Speaker 1: at New Orleans. Game is a little more interesting, maybe

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Speaker 1: than we thought it was going to be, just because

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Speaker 1: Buffalo is kind of nailing and clawing for playoff positioning.

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Speaker 1: Now they just dropped one to Indy New Orleans. You know,

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Speaker 1: they were in a good position after they beat the

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Speaker 1: Bucks a few weeks ago, and now they've lost what

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Speaker 1: three straight games, So yeah, it's been tough for both

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Speaker 1: of these teams, both of them are desperate for a win.

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Speaker 1: It's another one where I like the under. I mean,

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Speaker 1: you have two average offenses, Buffalo's fourteenth and in offensive DVOA.

330
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Speaker 1: New Orleans is fifteenth and not even as good as

331
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Speaker 1: that when you consider what's going on with Simeon and

332
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Speaker 1: maybe those tart tas them who they just paid. And

333
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Speaker 1: but you have two average offenses against two elite defenses.

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Speaker 1: Buffalo's first. New Orleans is sixth. The total has dropped,

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Speaker 1: you know, it's been steamed by some sharps. Dropped one

336
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Speaker 1: in a half points, you know from open and when

337
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Speaker 1: a primetime total drops one and a half points, because

338
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Speaker 1: usually primetime games, you know you're gonna see the public

339
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Speaker 1: coming heavy on the over. But when primetime games have

340
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Speaker 1: dropped one and a half points, when there's been enough

341
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Speaker 1: money to move that down fifty six percent, you know

342
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Speaker 1: over you know a few hundred games sample size in

343
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Speaker 1: our bet Labs database going back to two thousand and three.

344
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Speaker 1: So there's another one where you know, I like the under.

345
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Speaker 1: I know New Arrens has been getting into some odd

346
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Speaker 1: shootouts because they've been getting down and then kind of

347
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Speaker 1: having to close their way out of it. But I

348
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Speaker 1: just think Buffalo. I just think you get a really

349
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Speaker 1: focused defensive effort from Buffalo. And you know, Sean Payton,

350
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Speaker 1: what is he really good at? You know, master schemer,

351
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Speaker 1: offensive schemer. Short week, I just don't know how much

352
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Speaker 1: he's going to be able to install here. So I mean,

353
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Speaker 1: the Saints got their hands tied. Ingram's out of practice,

354
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Speaker 1: Camara's out of practice. I mean, who's touching the ball

355
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Speaker 1: for the Saints this week?

356
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Speaker 2: Jones? These guys are Jones?

357
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Speaker 1: Is the Yeah, Tony Jones, Junior, Dwayne Washington, Time Montgomery.

358
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Speaker 1: I mean like it could get ugly for the Saints.

359
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Speaker 1: You could just get an egg from the Saints offense

360
00:17:19,200 --> 00:17:21,720
Speaker 1: and just win this comfortably, you know, with the under,

361
00:17:21,760 --> 00:17:23,600
Speaker 1: if the Bills just show up at all. But I

362
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Speaker 1: also think you get a really focused defensive effort, and

363
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Speaker 1: both of these seems really good at stopping to run.

364
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Speaker 1: So it's like you're gonna see a lot of second

365
00:17:29,840 --> 00:17:33,120
Speaker 1: and long, third and long, perfect situation for an under.

366
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Speaker 1: So that's how I'm looking at it. What do you think?

367
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Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm here to tell her whether the Bills are

368
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Speaker 2: going to be fine? Everyone, If you haven't didn't get

369
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Speaker 2: a Super Bowl future. Ow In there, I got some

370
00:17:40,920 --> 00:17:42,639
Speaker 2: fourteen to one. You might be able to find a

371
00:17:42,640 --> 00:17:46,400
Speaker 2: good number. Now, everyone that's panicking about the Bills sounds

372
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Speaker 2: like the people that were panicking about the Bucks last year,

373
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Speaker 2: the Chiefs four weeks ago. This is the league. It

374
00:17:51,720 --> 00:17:53,439
Speaker 2: goes in cycles. And I'm here to tell you that

375
00:17:53,520 --> 00:17:55,720
Speaker 2: the Bills they have a couple issues right now, but

376
00:17:56,119 --> 00:17:58,840
Speaker 2: I'll talk through really quickly. But they've just been really unlucky.

377
00:17:59,040 --> 00:18:01,720
Speaker 2: A good article and I'm the athletic about this today.

378
00:18:01,760 --> 00:18:05,920
Speaker 2: But look, they're twenty seventh in penalties EPA. They're three

379
00:18:06,000 --> 00:18:08,440
Speaker 2: for ten on fourth down league average, about fifty percent.

380
00:18:08,520 --> 00:18:11,679
Speaker 2: Last year they were eighty. They're the second worst fourth

381
00:18:11,760 --> 00:18:14,960
Speaker 2: down team from an EPA perspective in the entire league.

382
00:18:15,040 --> 00:18:18,920
Speaker 2: Allen twenty ninth out of thirty seven quarterbacks and EPA

383
00:18:19,000 --> 00:18:22,119
Speaker 2: per interception. So that just means you know, interceptions are bad.

384
00:18:22,200 --> 00:18:24,560
Speaker 2: Is interception rate ticked up a little bit? Cover two.

385
00:18:25,000 --> 00:18:26,520
Speaker 2: A lot of teams are running this year, seeing them

386
00:18:26,560 --> 00:18:28,800
Speaker 2: do it against Mahomes, You're seeing them. It's giving them.

387
00:18:28,840 --> 00:18:30,960
Speaker 2: The Bills a little bit of trouble. But they've the

388
00:18:31,160 --> 00:18:33,840
Speaker 2: interceptions are coming just at a really poor time. So

389
00:18:33,920 --> 00:18:35,360
Speaker 2: do you know if you turn it over in someone

390
00:18:35,359 --> 00:18:38,399
Speaker 2: else's territory compared to if you've turned it over at midfield?

391
00:18:38,600 --> 00:18:41,639
Speaker 2: Blah blah blah. They're also on in three and one

392
00:18:41,680 --> 00:18:43,840
Speaker 2: possession games. Last year there were four and one in

393
00:18:43,880 --> 00:18:47,520
Speaker 2: one posession games. Allen slips at the five against the Titans. Right,

394
00:18:47,920 --> 00:18:50,520
Speaker 2: All all their losses before last week were won by

395
00:18:50,560 --> 00:18:53,840
Speaker 2: one possession. Easily could have won the games they're all

396
00:18:53,880 --> 00:18:56,240
Speaker 2: six of their wins were blowouts, and you could say, yeah,

397
00:18:56,359 --> 00:18:59,000
Speaker 2: the schedule has been easy, but it's not easy to

398
00:18:59,040 --> 00:19:02,040
Speaker 2: blow out teams by two. In the NFL, there's still

399
00:19:02,119 --> 00:19:05,640
Speaker 2: number one DBA defense. Their offense is ticked down. It's

400
00:19:05,640 --> 00:19:08,880
Speaker 2: about league average. Why offensive line injuries have been killer?

401
00:19:09,200 --> 00:19:12,200
Speaker 2: You have like Ford in there, Spencer Brown COVID list

402
00:19:12,280 --> 00:19:15,720
Speaker 2: he's out. You know, you have Feliciano's out. You move

403
00:19:15,800 --> 00:19:18,119
Speaker 2: Dawkins to tackle and it's just a disaster. He's so

404
00:19:18,200 --> 00:19:20,320
Speaker 2: much better at guard to the offensive line has been bad,

405
00:19:20,440 --> 00:19:23,159
Speaker 2: getting a lot of pressure, Cole Beasley dealing with a

406
00:19:23,200 --> 00:19:26,480
Speaker 2: rib injury. Emmanuel Sanders just doesn't look great, and then

407
00:19:26,720 --> 00:19:29,199
Speaker 2: Josh Allen isn't as accurate this year. That's up that

408
00:19:29,240 --> 00:19:32,800
Speaker 2: he has to fix in the intermediary routes because teams

409
00:19:32,800 --> 00:19:35,000
Speaker 2: are running a lot of two deep safety and saying

410
00:19:35,000 --> 00:19:36,879
Speaker 2: we're going to take away the deflay on top of that,

411
00:19:36,920 --> 00:19:38,320
Speaker 2: they're able to get a lot of pressure because the

412
00:19:38,320 --> 00:19:40,720
Speaker 2: offensive line is a mess. Look at the Jags game,

413
00:19:40,720 --> 00:19:42,879
Speaker 2: it's exactly what they did. Too deep safety, got a

414
00:19:42,880 --> 00:19:46,880
Speaker 2: lot of pressure. Colts that's their base defense, and they

415
00:19:46,880 --> 00:19:49,560
Speaker 2: both slowed down this build's offense. But Allen left from

416
00:19:49,600 --> 00:19:52,640
Speaker 2: second in completion percentage of expectation last year now sixteen,

417
00:19:53,080 --> 00:19:55,520
Speaker 2: and that's a major difference. There's also red zone struggles.

418
00:19:55,680 --> 00:19:57,399
Speaker 2: But there's a lot of things going on with the offense.

419
00:19:57,480 --> 00:19:59,560
Speaker 2: The defense is still a lead. Last week they didn't

420
00:19:59,600 --> 00:20:02,399
Speaker 2: have Star but too Lally and I, you know, before

421
00:20:02,440 --> 00:20:03,919
Speaker 2: the season, I said how key he is to their

422
00:20:04,000 --> 00:20:07,160
Speaker 2: run defense, to everything, to everyone kind of sliding into

423
00:20:07,160 --> 00:20:10,199
Speaker 2: place in the defensive line. Tremaine Edmonds didn't also play.

424
00:20:10,640 --> 00:20:13,040
Speaker 2: So their defense is gonna be fine. It's still a

425
00:20:13,040 --> 00:20:15,840
Speaker 2: little bit vulnerable to power run games. But the Saints

426
00:20:15,920 --> 00:20:19,960
Speaker 2: banged up offensive line, banged up running backs. I don't

427
00:20:19,960 --> 00:20:21,600
Speaker 2: know how they've really moved the ball here. And then

428
00:20:21,640 --> 00:20:25,280
Speaker 2: after what Peyton saw last week, He's yeah, all those

429
00:20:25,320 --> 00:20:26,639
Speaker 2: picks go. Look at that game. By the way, you

430
00:20:26,640 --> 00:20:29,320
Speaker 2: saw that score. It's like thirty yard drive, twenty yard drive,

431
00:20:29,359 --> 00:20:33,160
Speaker 2: ten yard drive. They just pick six. He doesn't want

432
00:20:33,320 --> 00:20:35,800
Speaker 2: Simeon to lose this game. I do have a bit

433
00:20:35,840 --> 00:20:38,399
Speaker 2: of concern about the Saints defense, Like I have a

434
00:20:38,440 --> 00:20:41,720
Speaker 2: great elite but Darnold has a career day against them,

435
00:20:42,280 --> 00:20:44,240
Speaker 2: Matt Ryan has a career day against them, and that

436
00:20:44,320 --> 00:20:47,640
Speaker 2: Falcons offense the Giants, So they have like these really

437
00:20:47,640 --> 00:20:51,840
Speaker 2: good performances then these really head scratching performances. So I'm

438
00:20:51,880 --> 00:20:53,640
Speaker 2: trying to dig in to find out what's going on.

439
00:20:53,920 --> 00:20:56,560
Speaker 2: But I expect to bounce back performance here. They have

440
00:20:56,680 --> 00:21:00,280
Speaker 2: bounced back pretty well this year. The Bills all offense

441
00:21:00,359 --> 00:21:02,080
Speaker 2: is just off right now. I mean, Spencer Brown is

442
00:21:02,080 --> 00:21:04,600
Speaker 2: probably going to be out again with Covid Luciano still out,

443
00:21:04,640 --> 00:21:07,320
Speaker 2: so you're going that offensive line probably going to get

444
00:21:07,359 --> 00:21:10,280
Speaker 2: dominated up front by the Saints. Saints still up good

445
00:21:10,560 --> 00:21:13,119
Speaker 2: good secondary here that can compete, and I don't think

446
00:21:13,119 --> 00:21:15,199
Speaker 2: the Bills are going to fix their offensive problems overnight.

447
00:21:15,240 --> 00:21:17,600
Speaker 2: I think this long extended break before the Patriots, I

448
00:21:17,600 --> 00:21:20,479
Speaker 2: think on a Monday night. Oh maybe, especially if they

449
00:21:20,480 --> 00:21:22,760
Speaker 2: lose this game in the Pats wind be a great spot.

450
00:21:23,119 --> 00:21:24,920
Speaker 2: But yeah, I think that the Saints. I don't see

451
00:21:24,920 --> 00:21:27,360
Speaker 2: the Saints doing much because they can't really take advantage

452
00:21:27,400 --> 00:21:30,119
Speaker 2: of this the weakness right now without Star up front

453
00:21:30,359 --> 00:21:32,800
Speaker 2: and Simeon's not going to move the ball. Bills defense

454
00:21:32,800 --> 00:21:34,480
Speaker 2: should I mean they were embarrassed. You listen to all

455
00:21:34,520 --> 00:21:38,399
Speaker 2: their oppressors. Saints defense should bounce back as well. Peyton,

456
00:21:38,440 --> 00:21:40,480
Speaker 2: by the way off and lost fifty twenty seven against

457
00:21:40,480 --> 00:21:42,680
Speaker 2: the spread, sixty five percent, covering by almost four points

458
00:21:42,720 --> 00:21:45,879
Speaker 2: per game, second behind only Belichick, and as an underdog

459
00:21:45,920 --> 00:21:48,679
Speaker 2: always said the underdog God forty five twenty six and

460
00:21:48,760 --> 00:21:52,200
Speaker 2: two sixty three point four percent, only behind tomlin.

461
00:21:52,240 --> 00:21:54,200
Speaker 1: Loo's the greatest of all time. Look at your work.

462
00:21:54,520 --> 00:21:56,040
Speaker 2: But I don't want to get involved in this game.

463
00:21:56,040 --> 00:21:57,760
Speaker 2: From a side perspective, I agree with you the under

464
00:21:57,840 --> 00:21:59,760
Speaker 2: I think both defenses. I know the Bills are really

465
00:21:59,760 --> 00:22:02,040
Speaker 2: pad We did ask more than any team in the league,

466
00:22:02,560 --> 00:22:04,560
Speaker 2: but I think this is a game where both defenses

467
00:22:04,560 --> 00:22:08,040
Speaker 2: show up. Both offenses still have major questions and injuries,

468
00:22:08,560 --> 00:22:13,040
Speaker 2: and this is a desperation game for both teams. Both

469
00:22:13,119 --> 00:22:16,440
Speaker 2: well coached. So the line is ticking up right now

470
00:22:16,440 --> 00:22:20,160
Speaker 2: because of the injuries to Kamara and mark Ingram. If

471
00:22:20,160 --> 00:22:23,439
Speaker 2: it got to seven, I would have to probably consider

472
00:22:23,480 --> 00:22:26,240
Speaker 2: the Saints. But for me it's I agree with you,

473
00:22:26,240 --> 00:22:27,960
Speaker 2: it's on the under and the Bills. Will we find

474
00:22:28,040 --> 00:22:31,639
Speaker 2: everyone and if they lose, they're still gonna make the playoffs.

475
00:22:31,840 --> 00:22:35,720
Speaker 2: That'll give us a great opportunity to back them against

476
00:22:35,720 --> 00:22:37,040
Speaker 2: New England next week.

477
00:22:38,080 --> 00:22:40,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean I thought about it too, like the

478
00:22:40,520 --> 00:22:42,680
Speaker 1: Peyton spot, Like this is just the Peyton spot off

479
00:22:42,680 --> 00:22:44,960
Speaker 1: a loss, if a multi game streak as a dog

480
00:22:45,280 --> 00:22:48,119
Speaker 1: home dog, no less, but yeah, Like it's what scares

481
00:22:48,160 --> 00:22:50,160
Speaker 1: me is the Bills are also off a loss. You're

482
00:22:50,160 --> 00:22:53,119
Speaker 1: gonna get their best effort, you know. I think another

483
00:22:53,200 --> 00:22:55,639
Speaker 1: thing that's been an issue for the Bills offense. Obviously

484
00:22:55,760 --> 00:22:58,679
Speaker 1: Josh Allen hasn't been as accurate, but Cole Beasley's been

485
00:22:58,680 --> 00:23:02,920
Speaker 1: a will more bang up than usual this year. It's yeah,

486
00:23:02,960 --> 00:23:06,520
Speaker 1: and if you look at his yeah, well yeah, but

487
00:23:06,600 --> 00:23:09,480
Speaker 1: like Beasley's yards per catch first two years in Buffalo

488
00:23:09,720 --> 00:23:13,000
Speaker 1: eleven point six, eleven point eight this year eight point

489
00:23:13,000 --> 00:23:16,040
Speaker 1: five average, you have to target his first year eight

490
00:23:16,240 --> 00:23:18,720
Speaker 1: his second year seven point eight this year, five point

491
00:23:18,720 --> 00:23:20,879
Speaker 1: five yard task to catch four point nine first year

492
00:23:20,920 --> 00:23:23,040
Speaker 1: four point three to second year three point eight this year.

493
00:23:23,119 --> 00:23:26,919
Speaker 1: So it's like Beasley's been relegated to like underneath, like

494
00:23:27,000 --> 00:23:29,960
Speaker 1: check down but like first down maker, to just a

495
00:23:30,000 --> 00:23:32,159
Speaker 1: guy who's catching like a two yard pass and not

496
00:23:32,200 --> 00:23:34,879
Speaker 1: really doing anything with it. So like Josh Allen doesn't

497
00:23:34,880 --> 00:23:37,440
Speaker 1: have that safety blanket, because that's when Josh Allen really

498
00:23:37,440 --> 00:23:40,520
Speaker 1: started improving as a passer when he got a guy

499
00:23:40,560 --> 00:23:42,280
Speaker 1: like Beasley instead of just having to chuck it deep

500
00:23:42,280 --> 00:23:44,919
Speaker 1: to like Jay Jones and Robert Foster and John Brown

501
00:23:44,920 --> 00:23:46,600
Speaker 1: all you know what I mean. Like he it's not

502
00:23:46,640 --> 00:23:49,200
Speaker 1: as productive this year. So yeah, we'll see what happens.

503
00:23:49,200 --> 00:23:51,960
Speaker 1: But I expect this to be just a close defensive game.

504
00:23:52,280 --> 00:23:55,119
Speaker 1: Saints crowd should be loud. Don't expect the Bills, like

505
00:23:55,119 --> 00:23:58,080
Speaker 1: you said, to correct everything in a week, but I

506
00:23:58,119 --> 00:23:59,720
Speaker 1: do expect both teams to show up.

507
00:24:00,000 --> 00:24:02,960
Speaker 2: The same thing. With Digs, sixty nine percent throws are

508
00:24:03,000 --> 00:24:05,440
Speaker 2: on target to Diggs this year. Last year it was

509
00:24:05,480 --> 00:24:08,080
Speaker 2: eighty three, and that's why he had a monster here

510
00:24:08,160 --> 00:24:11,760
Speaker 2: that sick down. An accuracy makes a huge difference. It's

511
00:24:11,760 --> 00:24:14,200
Speaker 2: one of the best staffs in all of NFL. They

512
00:24:14,240 --> 00:24:15,600
Speaker 2: will figure it out by the end of the year.

513
00:24:15,720 --> 00:24:17,600
Speaker 2: They have to make some adjustments, you see it so

514
00:24:18,200 --> 00:24:21,159
Speaker 2: week to week league in the NFL DC number I

515
00:24:21,200 --> 00:24:23,000
Speaker 2: make it around four. But it's the same if the

516
00:24:23,000 --> 00:24:25,399
Speaker 2: Bills get up right, like if they make a big play,

517
00:24:25,720 --> 00:24:28,680
Speaker 2: hit a big play, and they get up like seven, ten, fourteen,

518
00:24:29,560 --> 00:24:31,960
Speaker 2: it's over for the Saints. So they're just incapable of

519
00:24:31,960 --> 00:24:36,040
Speaker 2: coming back with With Trevor Simeon, I'll.

520
00:24:35,880 --> 00:24:38,480
Speaker 4: Tell you about this stuff. Was looking good and smelling

521
00:24:38,560 --> 00:24:41,080
Speaker 4: good and tasting good. We got to dig in and

522
00:24:41,080 --> 00:24:41,720
Speaker 4: start eating.

523
00:24:41,760 --> 00:24:44,160
Speaker 3: Now it is good, but you got a hurry because

524
00:24:44,240 --> 00:24:46,480
Speaker 3: it's hitting close to game time and we just like

525
00:24:46,560 --> 00:24:49,520
Speaker 3: to say Happy Thanksgiving to you guys back in the studio.

526
00:24:50,680 --> 00:24:53,600
Speaker 1: All right, let's give the people what they want. Let's

527
00:24:53,720 --> 00:24:57,199
Speaker 1: open the week twelve Sunday six Pack presented by our

528
00:24:57,240 --> 00:25:04,080
Speaker 1: friends at Athletic Brewing Company. Thirsty for action, Let's crack

529
00:25:04,160 --> 00:25:15,359
Speaker 1: open the Sunday six pack. All right, stuck rough couple

530
00:25:15,359 --> 00:25:16,919
Speaker 1: of weeks for me, so we're back to tie up

531
00:25:16,960 --> 00:25:20,800
Speaker 1: at thirty six a piece. Somehow Pittsburgh got that miracle

532
00:25:20,800 --> 00:25:22,879
Speaker 1: cover didn't even expect them to do that. I almost

533
00:25:22,920 --> 00:25:24,480
Speaker 1: turned that game off in the fourth quarter. That's how

534
00:25:24,600 --> 00:25:25,520
Speaker 1: over I thought it was.

535
00:25:25,560 --> 00:25:27,400
Speaker 2: But Chargers game is never over.

536
00:25:27,880 --> 00:25:30,800
Speaker 1: Never, it's same thing. It's nuts how it's the same.

537
00:25:31,119 --> 00:25:32,760
Speaker 1: It's like, it's like it's kind of the same thing.

538
00:25:32,760 --> 00:25:33,000
Speaker 2: It's up.

539
00:25:33,000 --> 00:25:34,800
Speaker 1: They're winning some of them. They used to lose pretty

540
00:25:34,880 --> 00:25:39,280
Speaker 1: much all of those. But I am up first this week.

541
00:25:39,720 --> 00:25:43,760
Speaker 1: So for my first pick of the week twelve Sunday

542
00:25:43,800 --> 00:25:47,280
Speaker 1: six pack, the first overall pick of the week twelve

543
00:25:47,359 --> 00:25:51,760
Speaker 1: Sunday six pack, I am going with the Pittsburgh Steelers

544
00:25:51,800 --> 00:25:55,280
Speaker 1: plus four and a half at the Cincinnati Bengals at

545
00:25:55,280 --> 00:25:57,920
Speaker 1: bet MGM. I think this number is just too big.

546
00:25:57,960 --> 00:26:00,760
Speaker 1: I think it's closer to a field goal game. Pittsburgh

547
00:26:00,960 --> 00:26:05,040
Speaker 1: has been just ugly all year. But because they've been

548
00:26:05,280 --> 00:26:08,240
Speaker 1: just ugly enough to be underdogs, and you know in

549
00:26:08,320 --> 00:26:10,480
Speaker 1: a lot of these games, and you know, we're kind

550
00:26:10,480 --> 00:26:13,040
Speaker 1: of getting a lot of value on their lines. I

551
00:26:13,119 --> 00:26:16,320
Speaker 1: mean this is in DVA overall DVA, and remember the

552
00:26:16,359 --> 00:26:19,120
Speaker 1: schedule adjusted, we're ten weeks into the season, eleven weeks

553
00:26:19,160 --> 00:26:23,480
Speaker 1: into the season now, Pittsburgh twenty second, Cincinnati twenty first,

554
00:26:24,040 --> 00:26:27,760
Speaker 1: So these are pretty even. We match teams. This shouldn't

555
00:26:28,040 --> 00:26:29,639
Speaker 1: How does this get to four and a half? Like,

556
00:26:29,680 --> 00:26:33,040
Speaker 1: I know, Pittsburgh's been ugly, but Pittsburgh actually has the

557
00:26:33,080 --> 00:26:35,440
Speaker 1: better offense in terms of DVOA twenty first versus the

558
00:26:35,480 --> 00:26:38,680
Speaker 1: Bengals twenty third. For all the talent Cincinnati has on offense,

559
00:26:39,720 --> 00:26:42,520
Speaker 1: something's not quite right. I think it's the play calling, honestly.

560
00:26:42,640 --> 00:26:45,560
Speaker 1: I like, you know, Joe Burrow just tends to make

561
00:26:45,600 --> 00:26:48,160
Speaker 1: like one or two key mistakes under pressure every game.

562
00:26:48,240 --> 00:26:51,919
Speaker 1: The offensive line isn't great Pittsburgh, you know they're not

563
00:26:52,040 --> 00:26:53,960
Speaker 1: quite at full strength, but we still know they're going

564
00:26:54,040 --> 00:26:56,760
Speaker 1: to be able to cause some disruption up front. I mean,

565
00:26:57,040 --> 00:26:59,480
Speaker 1: I mean Cam Hayward was a man possessed in that

566
00:26:59,600 --> 00:27:02,400
Speaker 1: charging I pretty much could thank single handed. We thank

567
00:27:02,480 --> 00:27:05,040
Speaker 1: him for the cover. You know, Pittsburgh's even getting pressure

568
00:27:05,080 --> 00:27:08,359
Speaker 1: on punts. But Cincinnati, their offense, they've just been better

569
00:27:08,400 --> 00:27:12,200
Speaker 1: situationally than overall. And you just worry about that kind

570
00:27:12,200 --> 00:27:14,520
Speaker 1: of regressing a little bit because you know, the twenty

571
00:27:14,520 --> 00:27:17,720
Speaker 1: first in offense overall, but the fifteenth on third down,

572
00:27:18,280 --> 00:27:21,280
Speaker 1: the fourth in the red zone. Well, Pittsburgh seventh on

573
00:27:21,320 --> 00:27:24,400
Speaker 1: third down defense, fourth in red zone defense. So it's

574
00:27:24,440 --> 00:27:28,200
Speaker 1: not going to be easy here. Also, again with Pittsburgh,

575
00:27:28,200 --> 00:27:30,800
Speaker 1: a lot of these plays aren't based on just the matchup,

576
00:27:31,200 --> 00:27:34,560
Speaker 1: you know in the numbers. It's based on a motivation here,

577
00:27:34,880 --> 00:27:37,919
Speaker 1: and Pittsburgh is one of the best teams to play

578
00:27:38,040 --> 00:27:41,440
Speaker 1: based on motivation. This is a big revenge spot for Pittsburgh.

579
00:27:41,520 --> 00:27:44,600
Speaker 1: Cincinnati came into Pittsburgh early in the year when we

580
00:27:44,760 --> 00:27:47,840
Speaker 1: had really didn't have impressions of either team yet and

581
00:27:47,880 --> 00:27:50,600
Speaker 1: they spanked them. And not only that, but they I

582
00:27:50,600 --> 00:27:52,520
Speaker 1: think it was Tyler Boyd told the whole world that

583
00:27:52,560 --> 00:27:55,440
Speaker 1: they gave up. That Pittsburgh just gave up. Ben Roethlisberger

584
00:27:55,440 --> 00:27:57,720
Speaker 1: had that embarrassing like short of the sticks through to

585
00:27:57,760 --> 00:28:00,879
Speaker 1: Naji Harris on fourth down and then the Bengals is off.

586
00:28:00,920 --> 00:28:03,439
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh gave up in their own building. It was sad

587
00:28:03,760 --> 00:28:05,840
Speaker 1: this that you think Mike Tomlin was not going to

588
00:28:05,920 --> 00:28:09,840
Speaker 1: have that clip on repeat over and over and over again.

589
00:28:10,200 --> 00:28:12,959
Speaker 1: All right, hit that horn, babe, Let's day. This in

590
00:28:12,960 --> 00:28:15,159
Speaker 1: addition to the fact that this is just yet another

591
00:28:15,240 --> 00:28:20,200
Speaker 1: Rara spot for Tomlin. What a raw ran Mike Tomlin spot.

592
00:28:20,520 --> 00:28:23,239
Speaker 4: We win the game with this prove of bodies right

593
00:28:23,280 --> 00:28:27,520
Speaker 4: here today, bring y'all game today.

594
00:28:27,800 --> 00:28:31,520
Speaker 1: Divisional opponent on the road, underdog as a dog from

595
00:28:31,520 --> 00:28:33,920
Speaker 1: week three on thirty six, fifteen to two against the

596
00:28:33,920 --> 00:28:37,919
Speaker 1: spread seventy two as a dog versus an opponent with

597
00:28:37,960 --> 00:28:42,200
Speaker 1: an equal or better winning percentage twenty nine seven and

598
00:28:42,400 --> 00:28:45,360
Speaker 1: one eighty two percent against the spread on a sample

599
00:28:45,400 --> 00:28:48,720
Speaker 1: of thirty seven games. Mike Tomlin as an underdog coming

600
00:28:48,760 --> 00:28:52,200
Speaker 1: off a loss fourteen and six against the spread seventy percent.

601
00:28:52,360 --> 00:28:55,720
Speaker 1: And Tomlin has always owned Cincinnati until you know, this year.

602
00:28:56,080 --> 00:28:59,200
Speaker 1: He's twenty and eight coming into this year, now twenty

603
00:28:59,320 --> 00:29:02,040
Speaker 1: nine with the law against the spread sixty nine percent.

604
00:29:02,120 --> 00:29:04,880
Speaker 1: Still Mike tom went against Cincinnati. So I mean, this

605
00:29:04,960 --> 00:29:07,600
Speaker 1: is just the perfect spot. Beyond the fact that the

606
00:29:07,680 --> 00:29:09,800
Speaker 1: number is just too big, you know, in this game,

607
00:29:09,840 --> 00:29:12,560
Speaker 1: this is just the perfect motivational spot for Pittsburgh. So

608
00:29:12,800 --> 00:29:15,600
Speaker 1: gone with Pittsburgh plus four and a half at Cincy.

609
00:29:16,040 --> 00:29:18,160
Speaker 2: You're also back with Ben Roethlisberger, the King of Ohio.

610
00:29:18,320 --> 00:29:21,160
Speaker 2: All he does is win at Cleveland and Cincinnati. We're

611
00:29:21,160 --> 00:29:23,600
Speaker 2: recording this on Tuesday night, so you guys can have

612
00:29:23,640 --> 00:29:26,120
Speaker 2: it out Wednesday. We have Thursday games and Thanksgiving, so

613
00:29:26,600 --> 00:29:28,120
Speaker 2: there's a couple of games out there where, there's a

614
00:29:28,120 --> 00:29:32,360
Speaker 2: lot of injury uncertainty. The Steelers defense last week was

615
00:29:32,400 --> 00:29:38,120
Speaker 2: obviously really shorthanded. Now they're traveling. It was an exhaustive effort.

616
00:29:37,880 --> 00:29:42,960
Speaker 2: Is Hayden Fitzpatrick Lott. We don't know that as of

617
00:29:43,040 --> 00:29:43,360
Speaker 2: right now.

618
00:29:43,440 --> 00:29:45,520
Speaker 1: Right now, I'm hoping we get at least one or

619
00:29:45,560 --> 00:29:47,440
Speaker 1: two of those guys back, you know, I think the

620
00:29:47,480 --> 00:29:49,600
Speaker 1: most likely. But you know, if we just get one

621
00:29:49,680 --> 00:29:51,720
Speaker 1: or two of those guys back in this spot, I

622
00:29:51,760 --> 00:29:52,720
Speaker 1: think it'd be a good look.

623
00:29:53,080 --> 00:29:55,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, I can't can't fall to the spot. And yeah,

624
00:29:56,200 --> 00:29:59,800
Speaker 2: it is the play calls that's holding back this Bengals offense.

625
00:30:00,280 --> 00:30:03,720
Speaker 2: And I mean they're either on first down just running

626
00:30:03,800 --> 00:30:09,120
Speaker 2: it like basic runs, inefficient basic runs, or they're just

627
00:30:09,200 --> 00:30:12,480
Speaker 2: going spread five wide and it's like all right now,

628
00:30:12,520 --> 00:30:15,680
Speaker 2: I know you're gonna throw. Like there's just lack of

629
00:30:16,520 --> 00:30:20,320
Speaker 2: a lot of motion and play action and they're just

630
00:30:20,320 --> 00:30:23,360
Speaker 2: not putting Burrow in great spots to succeed. So yeah,

631
00:30:23,360 --> 00:30:24,760
Speaker 2: I don't mind a classic Thomas spot.

632
00:30:25,080 --> 00:30:26,480
Speaker 4: My kids want to have a good course.

633
00:30:27,080 --> 00:30:29,320
Speaker 2: That's taxes and the Tomins spot, So don't hate that

634
00:30:29,480 --> 00:30:33,720
Speaker 2: at all. For my first pick of the week, twelve,

635
00:30:33,800 --> 00:30:37,000
Speaker 2: Sunday six pack and the second overall, I'm going with

636
00:30:37,280 --> 00:30:42,320
Speaker 2: the Los Angeles Rams plus one at bet MGM against

637
00:30:42,320 --> 00:30:45,840
Speaker 2: the Green Bay Packers. It's funny now Packers fans all

638
00:30:45,880 --> 00:30:49,000
Speaker 2: think I hate them because I've bet against them the

639
00:30:49,000 --> 00:30:52,720
Speaker 2: past couple of weeks and two years ago on this podcast,

640
00:30:52,960 --> 00:30:54,720
Speaker 2: at the end of every episode, I said, go pack

641
00:30:54,800 --> 00:30:57,760
Speaker 2: go with my Packers future.

642
00:30:57,920 --> 00:30:59,840
Speaker 1: A week week leagues stuck, it's a week tweak.

643
00:31:00,640 --> 00:31:03,800
Speaker 2: I love Packers fans, some of the most passionate in

644
00:31:03,840 --> 00:31:06,080
Speaker 2: all of sports. I hope to get up to Lando

645
00:31:06,160 --> 00:31:09,360
Speaker 2: and I have some beer with some of you one day.

646
00:31:09,680 --> 00:31:11,959
Speaker 2: So I bucked this, so that actually never ever been

647
00:31:12,080 --> 00:31:15,000
Speaker 2: But look, the Packers are a really good team. Nev

648
00:31:15,040 --> 00:31:17,120
Speaker 2: Aaron Rodgers. You're gonna have a chance to win when

649
00:31:17,160 --> 00:31:19,160
Speaker 2: you're fully healthy. And then look, I said, this is

650
00:31:19,160 --> 00:31:20,880
Speaker 2: going into the Minnesota game, the defense was playing an

651
00:31:20,880 --> 00:31:22,840
Speaker 2: elite level. But I was like, there's no way they

652
00:31:22,920 --> 00:31:26,520
Speaker 2: can sustain this with Kevin King, Russell Douglas and you

653
00:31:26,520 --> 00:31:31,000
Speaker 2: know Stokes and Shannon Sullivan and look, Kirk Cousins went

654
00:31:31,040 --> 00:31:33,520
Speaker 2: off last week, and so I think that there's still

655
00:31:33,640 --> 00:31:36,840
Speaker 2: more regression coming for this defense, which is still banged up. Look,

656
00:31:36,840 --> 00:31:38,800
Speaker 2: I mean you lose Gyr Alexander, He's one of the

657
00:31:38,880 --> 00:31:41,360
Speaker 2: best corners in the NFLU, los Atarius Smith, you know,

658
00:31:41,400 --> 00:31:43,240
Speaker 2: Rashaun Gary's banged up, and you gotta keep in mind

659
00:31:43,280 --> 00:31:45,400
Speaker 2: there's a buye coming up next week for Green Band

660
00:31:45,440 --> 00:31:47,120
Speaker 2: much need to buy and they're the most one of

661
00:31:47,120 --> 00:31:48,760
Speaker 2: the most cautious teams in the NFL when it comes

662
00:31:48,760 --> 00:31:51,880
Speaker 2: to injuries. But here's it's just a great matchup for

663
00:31:51,960 --> 00:31:54,840
Speaker 2: the Rams. They went out and got von Miller for

664
00:31:55,240 --> 00:31:57,760
Speaker 2: these teams, not for the Diners. Right, still don't match

665
00:31:57,800 --> 00:31:59,840
Speaker 2: up well with these power running teams.

666
00:32:00,040 --> 00:32:00,880
Speaker 1: Oh my goodness.

667
00:32:01,360 --> 00:32:03,560
Speaker 2: Maybe maybe Green Bay comes out and you know, you

668
00:32:03,600 --> 00:32:05,960
Speaker 2: see a lot of aj Dillon. I think the Rams

669
00:32:06,000 --> 00:32:07,960
Speaker 2: would take that. Keep the ball out of Roger's hands.

670
00:32:08,000 --> 00:32:10,360
Speaker 2: With book they are an elite pass defense because they

671
00:32:10,360 --> 00:32:13,080
Speaker 2: can get after the quarterback, they can disrupt the pocket,

672
00:32:13,360 --> 00:32:16,400
Speaker 2: and they have a really good secondary led by Jalen Ramsey,

673
00:32:16,400 --> 00:32:19,520
Speaker 2: who people think he's going to cover shadow Devanta Adams.

674
00:32:19,520 --> 00:32:20,800
Speaker 2: He's not really doing that this year.

675
00:32:21,000 --> 00:32:22,640
Speaker 1: I can see him doing it though. That's the thing.

676
00:32:22,640 --> 00:32:24,600
Speaker 1: They've wanted to get him up closer to the line

677
00:32:24,600 --> 00:32:25,840
Speaker 1: of scrimmage.

678
00:32:25,400 --> 00:32:28,120
Speaker 2: And star, a star round star.

679
00:32:28,280 --> 00:32:31,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, but not every team like like, yeah, the teams

680
00:32:31,520 --> 00:32:33,320
Speaker 1: have number one receivers, but not every team has a

681
00:32:33,400 --> 00:32:35,960
Speaker 1: number one receiver worth shadowing if you think about it, right,

682
00:32:36,000 --> 00:32:40,000
Speaker 1: But like the Packers do, like unquestionably without a doubt,

683
00:32:40,480 --> 00:32:41,480
Speaker 1: absolutely due.

684
00:32:41,760 --> 00:32:43,720
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean he'll be on Adams sometimes and yeah,

685
00:32:43,760 --> 00:32:45,840
Speaker 2: maybe they do shadow I think it would be smart here.

686
00:32:46,040 --> 00:32:48,480
Speaker 2: I know Rams fans are clamoring for that, but it's

687
00:32:48,520 --> 00:32:50,600
Speaker 2: a really good matchup for the Rams, especially when you

688
00:32:50,640 --> 00:32:55,560
Speaker 2: consider here's the projected starting offensive line for the Packers

689
00:32:55,600 --> 00:33:01,760
Speaker 2: on Sunday, Nijeman at left tackle, John run Lucas, Patrick

690
00:33:02,360 --> 00:33:05,760
Speaker 2: Royce Newman, and Billy Turner. That's it. Backyard has had

691
00:33:05,800 --> 00:33:09,560
Speaker 2: another surgery. He's al Alton Jenkins, who's elite, just went

692
00:33:10,080 --> 00:33:13,760
Speaker 2: I are they lost their center who was playing really well.

693
00:33:13,840 --> 00:33:15,920
Speaker 2: He went on IR a couple of weeks ago. At

694
00:33:15,960 --> 00:33:19,840
Speaker 2: this offensive line is a makeshift unit. And now Aaron Rodgers,

695
00:33:20,520 --> 00:33:23,320
Speaker 2: who's has a toe injury that he says he can't

696
00:33:23,320 --> 00:33:25,680
Speaker 2: wait to get to the buy for he's not even

697
00:33:25,680 --> 00:33:28,280
Speaker 2: I don't think he's practicing much at all during the week,

698
00:33:28,320 --> 00:33:30,480
Speaker 2: And now you have all these new offensive line pieces

699
00:33:31,280 --> 00:33:33,720
Speaker 2: going up against Aaron Donald and now you're throwing von

700
00:33:33,800 --> 00:33:39,800
Speaker 2: Miller in there. This spells trouble for Rogers and I

701
00:33:39,800 --> 00:33:42,840
Speaker 2: don't know you could see. I hope that Rogers doesn't

702
00:33:42,840 --> 00:33:44,360
Speaker 2: get hurt. And some of the throws he makes, he's

703
00:33:44,400 --> 00:33:47,200
Speaker 2: so fun to watch. So just a great matchup for

704
00:33:47,240 --> 00:33:48,560
Speaker 2: the Rams. And then also on the other side of

705
00:33:48,600 --> 00:33:50,520
Speaker 2: the ball, it's talk about the russion on the defense.

706
00:33:50,920 --> 00:33:53,920
Speaker 2: The Rams have the offensive firepower to take advantage of this.

707
00:33:54,400 --> 00:33:57,720
Speaker 2: And speaking of bye weeks, it'll serve the Packers really

708
00:33:57,760 --> 00:34:01,000
Speaker 2: well next week get a lot healthier. Well, the Rams

709
00:34:01,040 --> 00:34:03,920
Speaker 2: really needed there by a week, mainly because Matt Stafford

710
00:34:04,480 --> 00:34:07,680
Speaker 2: was dealing with a back injury and ankle injury. Now

711
00:34:07,720 --> 00:34:10,400
Speaker 2: he's reportedly back to a hundred he's reportedly back to

712
00:34:10,400 --> 00:34:12,640
Speaker 2: one hundred percent. He wasn't even practicing before some of

713
00:34:12,640 --> 00:34:15,880
Speaker 2: the games. His back was clearly bothering. You saw some

714
00:34:15,920 --> 00:34:17,880
Speaker 2: of the throws that he made in the past two games.

715
00:34:17,960 --> 00:34:21,040
Speaker 2: So I expect a very sharp Stafford here against the

716
00:34:21,080 --> 00:34:24,279
Speaker 2: secondary that the Rams should be able to attack, should

717
00:34:24,320 --> 00:34:26,800
Speaker 2: be able to run on this defense as well. Sean

718
00:34:26,880 --> 00:34:29,399
Speaker 2: McVay great in this spot. Fourteen to seven and one

719
00:34:29,440 --> 00:34:32,919
Speaker 2: against the spread off a loss sixty six point seven

720
00:34:32,920 --> 00:34:37,680
Speaker 2: percent average margin of over three points per game. So

721
00:34:38,280 --> 00:34:40,239
Speaker 2: I think this is a great bounce back spot for

722
00:34:40,280 --> 00:34:42,319
Speaker 2: the Rams off of a by against a beat up

723
00:34:42,360 --> 00:34:45,440
Speaker 2: Packers team. This is just the right matchup for the

724
00:34:45,520 --> 00:34:49,120
Speaker 2: Rams and the right spot and opportunity. Rogers won't make

725
00:34:49,160 --> 00:34:51,440
Speaker 2: it easy, but I think the Rams get home here.

726
00:34:52,440 --> 00:34:54,359
Speaker 1: Yeah, and on the road off a loss, he's nine

727
00:34:54,360 --> 00:34:57,680
Speaker 1: and three against the spread with a cover margin, not

728
00:34:57,719 --> 00:35:00,720
Speaker 1: even a margin victory, a cover margin of seven points.

729
00:35:00,719 --> 00:35:03,799
Speaker 1: He's covered by a touchdown in twelve games on the

730
00:35:03,880 --> 00:35:05,600
Speaker 1: road off all off.

731
00:35:06,120 --> 00:35:07,640
Speaker 2: Yeah that margin by the way that I said to

732
00:35:07,640 --> 00:35:10,800
Speaker 2: the three point when that's the cover margin as well.

733
00:35:11,080 --> 00:35:13,640
Speaker 2: So yeah and seven on the road. Geeesh. So yeah,

734
00:35:14,040 --> 00:35:15,600
Speaker 2: it's a great spot for the Rams.

735
00:35:15,719 --> 00:35:20,239
Speaker 1: What do you think about the line moving? Because I

736
00:35:20,320 --> 00:35:23,120
Speaker 1: will probably be joining you on this one. I know

737
00:35:23,160 --> 00:35:25,239
Speaker 1: the Packers tend to be a public team. Right now,

738
00:35:25,239 --> 00:35:28,279
Speaker 1: we have tracked fifty five percent of the tickets on

739
00:35:28,320 --> 00:35:30,279
Speaker 1: the Packers, but sixty six percent of the money's on

740
00:35:30,280 --> 00:35:32,759
Speaker 1: the Rams. So are we getting anything better than a

741
00:35:32,800 --> 00:35:34,440
Speaker 1: one here? As I might as well just kind of

742
00:35:34,480 --> 00:35:35,160
Speaker 1: hop right now?

743
00:35:35,560 --> 00:35:38,520
Speaker 2: I don't think so. The Rams are pretty much healthy

744
00:35:38,920 --> 00:35:41,000
Speaker 2: the Packers. I mean there could be better. There only

745
00:35:41,040 --> 00:35:44,239
Speaker 2: could be worse news for the Packers with Gary or

746
00:35:44,320 --> 00:35:46,400
Speaker 2: you know, potentially Rogers. I mean, he hasd this this

747
00:35:46,480 --> 00:35:50,080
Speaker 2: foot injury that's apparently really bothering him. Didn't see the mind,

748
00:35:50,200 --> 00:35:52,200
Speaker 2: didn't see them bothering last week during the Vikings game.

749
00:35:52,280 --> 00:35:56,719
Speaker 2: But there's a buy on deck. Packers extremely cautious as

750
00:35:56,760 --> 00:35:58,719
Speaker 2: an organization when it comes to injuries. So yeah, I

751
00:35:58,719 --> 00:35:59,839
Speaker 2: don't think you're getting better than one.

752
00:36:00,080 --> 00:36:00,319
Speaker 4: To know.

753
00:36:00,840 --> 00:36:03,399
Speaker 2: The Packers are a public team. From what I've seen

754
00:36:03,400 --> 00:36:04,879
Speaker 2: in the market. Could be wrong, but I think one

755
00:36:04,920 --> 00:36:06,200
Speaker 2: is the one is the graph here.

756
00:36:06,800 --> 00:36:09,640
Speaker 1: I just bet it, Tota. Let me just put that

757
00:36:09,680 --> 00:36:12,000
Speaker 1: in the apps. This is what I was looking at too.

758
00:36:12,000 --> 00:36:14,840
Speaker 1: I would have picked this one probably as one of

759
00:36:14,880 --> 00:36:17,239
Speaker 1: my picks if you had. And I just think it is,

760
00:36:17,280 --> 00:36:19,759
Speaker 1: like you said, a great matchup for the Rams, just

761
00:36:19,840 --> 00:36:21,360
Speaker 1: you know, like you said, they got von Miller for this.

762
00:36:21,400 --> 00:36:23,759
Speaker 1: Don't have Odell a little more acclimated, you know, this

763
00:36:23,840 --> 00:36:26,719
Speaker 1: week two? I think that's big going against this package and.

764
00:36:26,640 --> 00:36:28,960
Speaker 2: Everything starts with a run on their offense, and you

765
00:36:29,000 --> 00:36:30,240
Speaker 2: can run on this screen. Baby.

766
00:36:30,680 --> 00:36:33,680
Speaker 1: Well, my second pick and the third overall of the

767
00:36:33,680 --> 00:36:36,840
Speaker 1: week twelve Sunday six pack, I'm going with the Minnesota

768
00:36:36,920 --> 00:36:42,480
Speaker 1: Vikings plus three at the San Francisco forty nine ers.

769
00:36:42,520 --> 00:36:44,920
Speaker 1: Mike Zimmer This is another good spot for him. But

770
00:36:45,560 --> 00:36:47,560
Speaker 1: this is another one of those matchups where it's just

771
00:36:47,560 --> 00:36:50,560
Speaker 1: two teams pretty evenly matched. You know, San Francisco a

772
00:36:50,600 --> 00:36:53,400
Speaker 1: couple of ticks better in dvaway there's seventh, Minnesota's eleventh.

773
00:36:53,800 --> 00:36:56,440
Speaker 1: Both teams have six point seven estimated wins according to

774
00:36:56,520 --> 00:36:59,160
Speaker 1: Football Outsiders, which looks at that you know the DVOA

775
00:37:00,080 --> 00:37:03,280
Speaker 1: rnals and point differentials and all that stuff, So pretty

776
00:37:03,280 --> 00:37:05,680
Speaker 1: even we match game. I think it should be inside

777
00:37:05,680 --> 00:37:07,000
Speaker 1: of field though, so you know, as long as you

778
00:37:07,000 --> 00:37:08,360
Speaker 1: can get it at three or more. I know it

779
00:37:08,400 --> 00:37:09,840
Speaker 1: was at two and a half at one point. I

780
00:37:09,880 --> 00:37:11,440
Speaker 1: think this is one of those wet down spots for

781
00:37:11,520 --> 00:37:13,360
Speaker 1: San Francisco. You know, they're coming off a couple of

782
00:37:13,719 --> 00:37:17,880
Speaker 1: strong performances. Uh, you know, they handle the Rams easily.

783
00:37:18,000 --> 00:37:21,480
Speaker 1: Then they get a gimme an easy one against the Jaguars,

784
00:37:21,560 --> 00:37:23,560
Speaker 1: don't really put up much of a fight. They pick

785
00:37:23,640 --> 00:37:26,040
Speaker 1: up the first quarter on one of their drives. But

786
00:37:26,600 --> 00:37:29,200
Speaker 1: now you got this Minnesota team coming to town, their

787
00:37:29,280 --> 00:37:32,880
Speaker 1: defense is playing well. You know they're they're deep on defense.

788
00:37:33,160 --> 00:37:35,359
Speaker 1: They can throw the ball, they can run it, even

789
00:37:35,360 --> 00:37:38,920
Speaker 1: though they're underlying run metrics aren't that good. But you

790
00:37:39,040 --> 00:37:41,239
Speaker 1: just look at these spots in the past when you

791
00:37:41,280 --> 00:37:43,759
Speaker 1: know Kyle Shanahan's been here, and you say, okay, forty

792
00:37:43,840 --> 00:37:46,560
Speaker 1: nine ers at home against a similar team should be

793
00:37:46,600 --> 00:37:49,760
Speaker 1: able to take care of business. Kyle Shanahan just nine

794
00:37:50,360 --> 00:37:53,879
Speaker 1: nineteen and one thirty two percent against the spread as

795
00:37:53,920 --> 00:37:56,239
Speaker 1: a favorite in games where he's not coming off to

796
00:37:56,239 --> 00:37:58,320
Speaker 1: buy so as long AS's on normal rest nine to

797
00:37:58,400 --> 00:38:02,560
Speaker 1: nineteen and one as a home favorite, two thirteen and

798
00:38:02,760 --> 00:38:06,480
Speaker 1: one against the spread is Kyle Shanahan when not coming

799
00:38:06,480 --> 00:38:10,360
Speaker 1: off of buy two and thirteen, he's covering thirteen percent

800
00:38:10,400 --> 00:38:12,960
Speaker 1: of his games as a home favorite. And then you

801
00:38:13,000 --> 00:38:14,799
Speaker 1: look at the forty nine ers. They're coming off a

802
00:38:14,840 --> 00:38:17,560
Speaker 1: blowout win, so it's a letdown spot home teams that

803
00:38:17,600 --> 00:38:20,360
Speaker 1: are five hundred or below. So teams that are no

804
00:38:20,400 --> 00:38:22,720
Speaker 1: better than five hundred coming off a win of sixteen

805
00:38:22,760 --> 00:38:26,640
Speaker 1: plus just seventeen and twenty nine with two pushes against

806
00:38:26,640 --> 00:38:29,560
Speaker 1: the spread just thirty seven percent since two thousand and three,

807
00:38:29,560 --> 00:38:31,920
Speaker 1: according to our Action webs database. And then you look

808
00:38:31,920 --> 00:38:35,120
Speaker 1: at San Francisco this year, they're just one and four

809
00:38:35,640 --> 00:38:38,080
Speaker 1: at home. That Rams win was their first home win

810
00:38:38,680 --> 00:38:40,799
Speaker 1: all year. And I don't even need to go into

811
00:38:40,800 --> 00:38:43,439
Speaker 1: the numbers of just a Levi stadium curse. Like most

812
00:38:43,480 --> 00:38:45,719
Speaker 1: forty nine Spans stick, the stadium is cursed. You know,

813
00:38:45,760 --> 00:38:47,600
Speaker 1: you go in the comments that like the Athletic or

814
00:38:47,719 --> 00:38:49,680
Speaker 1: you know any place where you know the forty nine

815
00:38:49,719 --> 00:38:51,839
Speaker 1: ers bugs and all the fans tick the stadium's cursed.

816
00:38:51,880 --> 00:38:55,000
Speaker 1: It's for whatever reason they haven't played well there. So

817
00:38:55,400 --> 00:38:58,239
Speaker 1: you know, I'm you know, two even we matched teams,

818
00:38:58,400 --> 00:39:01,120
Speaker 1: I'm getting a field goal and it's a bigger wet

819
00:39:01,160 --> 00:39:05,000
Speaker 1: down spot for San Francisco. Mike Zimmer usually does well

820
00:39:05,040 --> 00:39:06,760
Speaker 1: in these spots. We talk about it all the time

821
00:39:07,239 --> 00:39:09,520
Speaker 1: as a favorite, kind of like Shanahan, but as an

822
00:39:09,600 --> 00:39:14,760
Speaker 1: underdog thirty three and twenty sixty two percent against the spread.

823
00:39:15,880 --> 00:39:18,120
Speaker 1: So yeah, back in Mike Zimmer. It seems like every week,

824
00:39:18,200 --> 00:39:22,160
Speaker 1: same picks Pittsburgh Minnesota, Pittsburgh Minnesota. So we're going with

825
00:39:22,440 --> 00:39:24,960
Speaker 1: We're going with Minnesota here, just a wet down spot

826
00:39:25,400 --> 00:39:27,439
Speaker 1: for the forty nine Ers, but against the Minnesota team

827
00:39:27,480 --> 00:39:29,600
Speaker 1: that's just it's very good too. Both of these teams

828
00:39:29,680 --> 00:39:31,640
Speaker 1: are playing good football. But so I'm just taking the

829
00:39:31,680 --> 00:39:32,160
Speaker 1: points here.

830
00:39:32,800 --> 00:39:35,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'll touch with this game later, but uh, fort

831
00:39:35,680 --> 00:39:37,719
Speaker 2: nine ers, they've really picked it off here as a team.

832
00:39:37,760 --> 00:39:40,080
Speaker 2: I don't necessarily as the team I'm going to be

833
00:39:40,160 --> 00:39:45,400
Speaker 2: looking to back down the stretch, especially within their division.

834
00:39:45,520 --> 00:39:47,480
Speaker 2: They were just getting really unlucky. That had a lot

835
00:39:47,560 --> 00:39:50,360
Speaker 2: of injuries. Again, their first in their offenses, first in

836
00:39:50,440 --> 00:39:53,520
Speaker 2: the paper play over the past month. Uh, in the

837
00:39:53,640 --> 00:39:56,640
Speaker 2: entire NFL, they're really starting to get rolling. They've just

838
00:39:56,640 --> 00:39:59,000
Speaker 2: been unlucky. They're a lot better than the record. Same

839
00:39:59,000 --> 00:40:00,719
Speaker 2: thing with the Vikings. By the way, these two teams

840
00:40:00,719 --> 00:40:03,320
Speaker 2: are very similar. And now this is a huge game

841
00:40:03,440 --> 00:40:06,880
Speaker 2: that could potentially determine which one of these teams gets

842
00:40:06,920 --> 00:40:10,719
Speaker 2: that seventh spot, that final wild card, because this will

843
00:40:10,719 --> 00:40:12,799
Speaker 2: be a head to head tiebreaker and be a team

844
00:40:12,840 --> 00:40:15,359
Speaker 2: that no one wants to play. That two seed does

845
00:40:15,400 --> 00:40:18,439
Speaker 2: not want to play the seventh seed if it's either

846
00:40:18,640 --> 00:40:21,319
Speaker 2: San Francisco or Minnesota. But I'll touch more on this

847
00:40:21,440 --> 00:40:24,480
Speaker 2: game later. By the way, Kirk Cousins playing just at

848
00:40:24,640 --> 00:40:25,680
Speaker 2: a phenomenal level.

849
00:40:26,080 --> 00:40:28,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's like he doesn't get the credit, right. It's

850
00:40:28,200 --> 00:40:30,359
Speaker 1: like he has a one bad game in there and

851
00:40:30,400 --> 00:40:32,359
Speaker 1: then you know I maybe had two, but you know,

852
00:40:32,719 --> 00:40:34,800
Speaker 1: every other game, I mean, he's making throws and he

853
00:40:34,840 --> 00:40:36,920
Speaker 1: should be. I mean he's got two great receivers so

854
00:40:37,560 --> 00:40:39,399
Speaker 1: and a great running back. But yeah, who you going

855
00:40:39,440 --> 00:40:40,640
Speaker 1: for your second? All right?

856
00:40:40,680 --> 00:40:43,600
Speaker 2: For my second pick in the fourth overall of the

857
00:40:43,680 --> 00:40:46,319
Speaker 2: week twelve NFL Sunday six pack, I'm going with the

858
00:40:46,360 --> 00:40:49,800
Speaker 2: Carolina Panthers minus one and a half at be MGM

859
00:40:50,120 --> 00:40:54,839
Speaker 2: at the Miami Dolphins. What I don't love necessarily love

860
00:40:54,920 --> 00:40:57,800
Speaker 2: this number. It's not like I make Carolina minus four

861
00:40:57,960 --> 00:41:01,240
Speaker 2: four and a half. I'd chow a bit of value

862
00:41:01,280 --> 00:41:03,880
Speaker 2: on Karada, and I just love the matchup here. One.

863
00:41:04,200 --> 00:41:05,879
Speaker 2: I don't think either team's gonna be able to throw

864
00:41:05,880 --> 00:41:10,319
Speaker 2: the ball in this particular matchup, so Carolina can't really

865
00:41:10,320 --> 00:41:13,680
Speaker 2: throw the ball. Miami's defense is playing really well, really aggressive.

866
00:41:13,800 --> 00:41:16,320
Speaker 2: They have good corners. Pass defensive metrics have been a

867
00:41:16,360 --> 00:41:18,520
Speaker 2: little disappointing, but this is a team that can still

868
00:41:18,520 --> 00:41:22,520
Speaker 2: defend the pass. Carolina one of the best pass defenses

869
00:41:22,640 --> 00:41:25,040
Speaker 2: in the NFL. So it's gonna come down to who

870
00:41:25,080 --> 00:41:27,160
Speaker 2: can run the balls. A game I think is gonna

871
00:41:27,160 --> 00:41:29,880
Speaker 2: be low scoring. Who can run the ball more successfully? Well,

872
00:41:30,120 --> 00:41:34,080
Speaker 2: the Dolphins can't run the ball. Rush EPA offense Panthers eighteenth,

873
00:41:34,160 --> 00:41:39,360
Speaker 2: Dolphins thirtieth, Rush success rate Panthers fourteenth, Dolphins thirtieth. The

874
00:41:39,440 --> 00:41:42,279
Speaker 2: Panthers will have be able to sustain a few more

875
00:41:42,360 --> 00:41:45,560
Speaker 2: drives than the Dolphins because the Dolphins can't run the ball.

876
00:41:45,840 --> 00:41:49,160
Speaker 2: What's gonna happen. It's gonna come down to Tua behind

877
00:41:49,600 --> 00:41:52,640
Speaker 2: what I think is the league's worst offensive line trying

878
00:41:52,680 --> 00:41:55,239
Speaker 2: to contain a pass hutch that's number one in the

879
00:41:55,320 --> 00:41:58,040
Speaker 2: NFL and adjusted sack rate. That's not gonna end well.

880
00:41:58,200 --> 00:42:00,160
Speaker 2: So I think that you know, you'll see some mistake

881
00:42:00,200 --> 00:42:03,319
Speaker 2: from Tua. Yeah, I mean, I can't run it. This

882
00:42:03,440 --> 00:42:07,400
Speaker 2: is just all out attack the quarterback. This secondary is

883
00:42:07,400 --> 00:42:09,320
Speaker 2: playing at a high level, and I think on both

884
00:42:09,360 --> 00:42:12,359
Speaker 2: sides of the ball, Caroline is a bit undervalued right

885
00:42:12,360 --> 00:42:16,880
Speaker 2: now because their season long metrics include some Sam Donald

886
00:42:17,400 --> 00:42:22,359
Speaker 2: which is never a good thing, and no McCaffrey. McCaffrey back.

887
00:42:22,360 --> 00:42:24,200
Speaker 2: Now on the other side of the ball, you know,

888
00:42:24,239 --> 00:42:27,520
Speaker 2: Shaq Thompson was out, you added Gilmore, you had a

889
00:42:27,560 --> 00:42:31,040
Speaker 2: lot of other injuries in the defensive backfield, and you know,

890
00:42:31,040 --> 00:42:33,319
Speaker 2: they were still playing pretty well, but they've added a

891
00:42:33,320 --> 00:42:35,399
Speaker 2: lot of new pieces. They got rid of Donald, which

892
00:42:35,400 --> 00:42:37,919
Speaker 2: is always a net positive. They're going to go run

893
00:42:37,960 --> 00:42:40,279
Speaker 2: heavy here. I don't expect them to put up a

894
00:42:40,280 --> 00:42:42,439
Speaker 2: ton of points, but I think that they'll be able

895
00:42:42,480 --> 00:42:44,840
Speaker 2: to sustain just a few more drives than Miami. I

896
00:42:44,880 --> 00:42:47,800
Speaker 2: think that their defense will make a few more plays

897
00:42:47,840 --> 00:42:51,520
Speaker 2: on two who will most likely be in more passing

898
00:42:51,600 --> 00:42:54,600
Speaker 2: situations because they can't run it at all. And that's

899
00:42:54,640 --> 00:42:57,479
Speaker 2: when I think this Carolina defense feats. So I really

900
00:42:57,520 --> 00:43:01,239
Speaker 2: like this matchup here for the Panthers. I will take

901
00:43:01,280 --> 00:43:02,480
Speaker 2: them minus one and a half here.

902
00:43:03,120 --> 00:43:07,280
Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree with the defense. I love this Panthers defense.

903
00:43:07,280 --> 00:43:10,280
Speaker 1: And the Dolphins have a real trouble running the ball

904
00:43:10,800 --> 00:43:14,400
Speaker 1: against pretty much everyone except the Jets. So if they

905
00:43:14,440 --> 00:43:16,399
Speaker 1: can't run the ball, you know they really they only

906
00:43:16,440 --> 00:43:19,520
Speaker 1: have like one I mean, they have two good receivers.

907
00:43:19,600 --> 00:43:22,600
Speaker 1: I guess you call Gasiki a receiver, but I mean

908
00:43:22,719 --> 00:43:25,760
Speaker 1: Carolina's so deep in the secondary that they can literally

909
00:43:25,840 --> 00:43:28,600
Speaker 1: treat Gasiki like a receiver and put a corner on

910
00:43:28,680 --> 00:43:32,760
Speaker 1: him if they so please. They look, Carolina on defense

911
00:43:32,840 --> 00:43:34,680
Speaker 1: is going to lock up, and I agree that they

912
00:43:34,680 --> 00:43:36,719
Speaker 1: are the better offense in this game. Cam Newton gives

913
00:43:36,760 --> 00:43:39,960
Speaker 1: them something that you know that Sam Donald didn't give them,

914
00:43:39,960 --> 00:43:42,480
Speaker 1: that PJ. Walker didn't give them, and they're still going

915
00:43:42,520 --> 00:43:43,839
Speaker 1: to be fired up, you know. Now they're coming off

916
00:43:43,840 --> 00:43:46,239
Speaker 1: a loss. I mean, they're still in the playoff hunt too,

917
00:43:46,320 --> 00:43:49,880
Speaker 1: so I think you're gonna get a motivated effort from Carolina.

918
00:43:49,960 --> 00:43:53,399
Speaker 1: And Miami's averaging just six yards per target against man

919
00:43:53,400 --> 00:43:56,040
Speaker 1: coverage compared to seven point three against zone. And like

920
00:43:56,040 --> 00:44:00,359
Speaker 1: you said, Carolina has more than enough personnel to play

921
00:44:00,400 --> 00:44:02,640
Speaker 1: man coverage in this spot and just you know, blitz

922
00:44:02,680 --> 00:44:04,959
Speaker 1: the quarterback, so it could get ugly.

923
00:44:05,360 --> 00:44:08,319
Speaker 2: Yeah, and they're graded out top three in the league

924
00:44:08,320 --> 00:44:10,399
Speaker 2: against tight ends for the get sickie matchups. So yeah,

925
00:44:10,400 --> 00:44:11,520
Speaker 2: give me the Panthers.

926
00:44:11,120 --> 00:44:15,640
Speaker 1: Here, all right. For my third pick and the fifth

927
00:44:15,680 --> 00:44:17,799
Speaker 1: overall in the Sunday six pack, I'm going with the

928
00:44:17,880 --> 00:44:23,880
Speaker 1: Tampa Bay Buccaneers minus three at Indianapolis. And listen, Indianapolis

929
00:44:23,920 --> 00:44:26,680
Speaker 1: playing some great football. You know they really are. There

930
00:44:26,719 --> 00:44:30,680
Speaker 1: are a couple of overtime games away from being on

931
00:44:30,760 --> 00:44:34,000
Speaker 1: a pretty huge winning streak right now, they're kind of

932
00:44:34,040 --> 00:44:36,839
Speaker 1: back to that level. That we saw them last year

933
00:44:37,400 --> 00:44:39,040
Speaker 1: when they you know, they were a little bit healthier,

934
00:44:39,040 --> 00:44:41,920
Speaker 1: they had Rivers at quarterback. But I don't think it's

935
00:44:41,920 --> 00:44:44,719
Speaker 1: a good matchup for Indianapolis at all for a couple

936
00:44:44,800 --> 00:44:49,600
Speaker 1: of reasons. First and foremost, Tom Brady. Everyone says, looking

937
00:44:49,640 --> 00:44:52,840
Speaker 1: at you know, the Bucks this year, what's the narrative

938
00:44:52,880 --> 00:44:55,000
Speaker 1: they can't play on the road. That might be true,

939
00:44:55,040 --> 00:44:58,000
Speaker 1: I mean, played poorly on the road. Their point differential

940
00:44:58,120 --> 00:45:01,360
Speaker 1: is what like plus it's like twenty eight points better

941
00:45:02,120 --> 00:45:04,600
Speaker 1: on the at home than on the road. But this

942
00:45:04,640 --> 00:45:07,720
Speaker 1: isn't a normal road matchup for a couple of reasons.

943
00:45:07,840 --> 00:45:11,600
Speaker 1: Number one, it's indoors, So no, Brady a little bit older.

944
00:45:11,640 --> 00:45:13,920
Speaker 1: You know, some of these outdoor games, some of these

945
00:45:14,000 --> 00:45:17,640
Speaker 1: road games, I think a little tougher, but there's no pressure.

946
00:45:17,960 --> 00:45:20,120
Speaker 1: There's no the Coats aren't getting pressure. So you got

947
00:45:20,160 --> 00:45:22,799
Speaker 1: an indoor game where the Coats aren't getting pressured. There

948
00:45:23,040 --> 00:45:26,280
Speaker 1: third from the bottom of the league in pressure percentage

949
00:45:26,280 --> 00:45:28,920
Speaker 1: at eighteen point four percent, and we saw what happening

950
00:45:28,920 --> 00:45:31,399
Speaker 1: against the Giants, who are also in the bottom five.

951
00:45:31,520 --> 00:45:33,640
Speaker 1: You know, it was just the Bucks could have put

952
00:45:33,719 --> 00:45:37,160
Speaker 1: up forty five in that matchup, and then On the

953
00:45:37,200 --> 00:45:40,680
Speaker 1: other side, Johnson terror has been an absolute beast. The Bucks.

954
00:45:40,920 --> 00:45:42,719
Speaker 1: They still they don't have Vitavea, they probably won't be

955
00:45:42,719 --> 00:45:45,200
Speaker 1: getting it back, but still one of the better run

956
00:45:45,239 --> 00:45:48,279
Speaker 1: defenses in the league. So you know, you expect them

957
00:45:48,280 --> 00:45:49,880
Speaker 1: to be able to slow him down a little bit

958
00:45:49,920 --> 00:45:52,600
Speaker 1: more than some of these other teams that if there's

959
00:45:52,640 --> 00:45:55,000
Speaker 1: such a thing. But Tampa Bay's defense, they're getting a

960
00:45:55,040 --> 00:45:58,520
Speaker 1: little bit healthier. You know, Murphy Bunting is back, and

961
00:45:58,800 --> 00:46:03,480
Speaker 1: you know defense is up to seventh in DVA. You know,

962
00:46:03,760 --> 00:46:07,320
Speaker 1: despite all the injuries, there's still seventh, and that schedule adjusted,

963
00:46:07,400 --> 00:46:10,680
Speaker 1: so their offense is first and their defense to seventh,

964
00:46:10,719 --> 00:46:14,319
Speaker 1: and their first in overall DVOA. Indianapolis is eighth in

965
00:46:14,320 --> 00:46:18,640
Speaker 1: in DVA, eleventh on offense and ninth on defense. So

966
00:46:19,040 --> 00:46:21,080
Speaker 1: Tampa Bay still got the better unit on both sides

967
00:46:21,120 --> 00:46:22,640
Speaker 1: of the ball. I got a two and a half.

968
00:46:22,680 --> 00:46:24,040
Speaker 1: If you can get it two and a half for

969
00:46:24,160 --> 00:46:26,719
Speaker 1: minus one twenty or less, I think it would be

970
00:46:26,760 --> 00:46:28,840
Speaker 1: worth it. Here could be a close game. The Coats

971
00:46:28,880 --> 00:46:31,399
Speaker 1: have been competitive, but I could also see Tampa Bay

972
00:46:31,440 --> 00:46:34,160
Speaker 1: blowing him out here. Tom Brady's still not happy about

973
00:46:34,160 --> 00:46:36,719
Speaker 1: that losing streak. He still knows he has work to do.

974
00:46:37,040 --> 00:46:38,920
Speaker 1: You know, they didn't just completely blow out the Giants,

975
00:46:38,920 --> 00:46:40,719
Speaker 1: which I think may have been good because it'll keep

976
00:46:40,719 --> 00:46:43,640
Speaker 1: them focused and things to improve on. Gronk back I

977
00:46:43,640 --> 00:46:46,520
Speaker 1: think really opens up that offense because it gives Brady

978
00:46:46,960 --> 00:46:48,920
Speaker 1: another option over the middle of the field to just

979
00:46:48,960 --> 00:46:51,680
Speaker 1: jam it into another big guy. And Brake's playing well.

980
00:46:51,760 --> 00:46:54,440
Speaker 1: Maybe they even get Antonio Brown back here. And I

981
00:46:54,520 --> 00:46:56,880
Speaker 1: just don't know that the Coats have enough outside of

982
00:46:56,920 --> 00:46:59,279
Speaker 1: Tailor to keep up with the Bucks, you know, and

983
00:46:59,320 --> 00:47:02,160
Speaker 1: getting to shootut out here. I think the Coats good

984
00:47:02,160 --> 00:47:03,959
Speaker 1: match up against the Bills. The Holts like to drop

985
00:47:04,000 --> 00:47:06,640
Speaker 1: back in the zone. They played two high safety Josh

986
00:47:06,719 --> 00:47:09,359
Speaker 1: Allen struggling with accuracy, so maybe we should have saw

987
00:47:09,400 --> 00:47:12,600
Speaker 1: that coming. But Tom Brady's not going to struggle with accuracy.

988
00:47:12,600 --> 00:47:14,440
Speaker 1: He's going to know exactly where to go with the football,

989
00:47:15,280 --> 00:47:16,719
Speaker 1: and I think he's going to make the Colts kind

990
00:47:16,719 --> 00:47:18,520
Speaker 1: of score on the other side, and that's where they

991
00:47:18,520 --> 00:47:20,279
Speaker 1: start getting into trouble where they just can't hand it

992
00:47:20,280 --> 00:47:22,440
Speaker 1: to Jonathan Taylor, you know, thirty times a game where

993
00:47:22,480 --> 00:47:24,560
Speaker 1: Wentz has to make some plays. So give me the

994
00:47:24,560 --> 00:47:28,200
Speaker 1: Bucks minus three Frank Reich at home hasn't been great,

995
00:47:28,239 --> 00:47:31,520
Speaker 1: you know, thirteen and sixteen, forty five percent against the spread,

996
00:47:31,880 --> 00:47:34,160
Speaker 1: just one in five against the spread is a home underdog,

997
00:47:34,440 --> 00:47:36,879
Speaker 1: so it's been rare. But when the Colts are home underdogs,

998
00:47:37,000 --> 00:47:39,520
Speaker 1: it's usually the market's usually been right about that. So

999
00:47:39,640 --> 00:47:43,080
Speaker 1: give me the Bucks minus three at Indeed, I do

1000
00:47:43,160 --> 00:47:43,440
Speaker 1: have to.

1001
00:47:43,400 --> 00:47:47,240
Speaker 2: Give some credit to Quity Pay who's playing really well,

1002
00:47:47,280 --> 00:47:49,840
Speaker 2: so he is generated some pressure. And then there's a

1003
00:47:49,880 --> 00:47:53,279
Speaker 2: lot of promise with this kid. O'danggo that both of

1004
00:47:53,320 --> 00:47:54,839
Speaker 2: them were draft picks of the Colts in this most

1005
00:47:54,840 --> 00:47:56,759
Speaker 2: recent draft, and he's he's only played four games, but

1006
00:47:56,800 --> 00:47:58,879
Speaker 2: he's looked pretty good. But yeah, I agree, I don't

1007
00:47:58,880 --> 00:48:02,280
Speaker 2: think the defense is idea here to face the Bucks.

1008
00:48:02,760 --> 00:48:06,000
Speaker 2: Uh Yeah. I was actually gonna be like looking into Okay,

1009
00:48:06,000 --> 00:48:08,879
Speaker 2: can Jonathan Taylor have a lot of success here? Yes,

1010
00:48:08,920 --> 00:48:12,000
Speaker 2: he's just been tearing it up and well Quintin Nelson's

1011
00:48:12,040 --> 00:48:14,520
Speaker 2: day to day and I'll break some news for you

1012
00:48:14,719 --> 00:48:16,880
Speaker 2: here on the pod. B to ba is good to

1013
00:48:16,960 --> 00:48:20,200
Speaker 2: go or Bruce Jans No really? Yeah, so that's that's

1014
00:48:20,280 --> 00:48:23,319
Speaker 2: amazing wonder worth about a half a point.

1015
00:48:23,400 --> 00:48:26,280
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's going to three yeah, it's going to three everywhere.

1016
00:48:26,360 --> 00:48:28,680
Speaker 1: I actually did not know that when I bet. I

1017
00:48:29,000 --> 00:48:31,279
Speaker 1: just liked the matchup for the offense. I wasn't kind of,

1018
00:48:31,360 --> 00:48:33,279
Speaker 1: but that's big news because yeah, I saw Quintin Nelson

1019
00:48:33,320 --> 00:48:35,279
Speaker 1: in a heat, so that didn't look good. I mean,

1020
00:48:35,360 --> 00:48:36,399
Speaker 1: hopefully he's day to day.

1021
00:48:36,480 --> 00:48:40,040
Speaker 2: Just Nelson Candy is back. I mean that is just

1022
00:48:40,080 --> 00:48:42,840
Speaker 2: so elite at one of the primer reasons why. I

1023
00:48:42,840 --> 00:48:45,000
Speaker 2: mean the scheme too, but just him in the middle

1024
00:48:45,040 --> 00:48:48,160
Speaker 2: makes this team impossible to run against. I do show

1025
00:48:48,239 --> 00:48:50,480
Speaker 2: value here, so I don't disagree with you. For my

1026
00:48:51,040 --> 00:48:53,840
Speaker 2: third pick in the sixth overall of the week twelve

1027
00:48:54,480 --> 00:48:58,680
Speaker 2: NFL Sunday six pat, I'm going with the Oh boy

1028
00:48:58,880 --> 00:49:01,600
Speaker 2: Houston Texans MIN two and a half at BETAMGM at

1029
00:49:01,600 --> 00:49:04,920
Speaker 2: home against the New York Jets. Look, it's slim pickens

1030
00:49:04,920 --> 00:49:07,400
Speaker 2: out there this weekend. There's three games on Thanksgiving. But

1031
00:49:07,800 --> 00:49:09,680
Speaker 2: this is the third side that I did play, and

1032
00:49:09,719 --> 00:49:11,520
Speaker 2: I do like it. I don't you know the number.

1033
00:49:11,520 --> 00:49:13,759
Speaker 2: It's not the greatest value in the world, but I

1034
00:49:13,800 --> 00:49:17,160
Speaker 2: actually do make this three. And here's why there's gonna

1035
00:49:17,160 --> 00:49:19,800
Speaker 2: be a simple handicap. As of right now, I actually

1036
00:49:19,840 --> 00:49:22,840
Speaker 2: have the Jets rated worse than the Texans. Believe that

1037
00:49:22,920 --> 00:49:26,200
Speaker 2: or not. Believe it or not from an overall roster perspective,

1038
00:49:26,520 --> 00:49:30,680
Speaker 2: assuming and there's not a huge drop off regardless, but

1039
00:49:30,920 --> 00:49:33,880
Speaker 2: assuming that Zach Wilson is going to start. That is

1040
00:49:33,920 --> 00:49:36,080
Speaker 2: the word. The most recent word is Zach Wilson's a go.

1041
00:49:36,280 --> 00:49:38,080
Speaker 2: I think he's the worst quarterback in the NFL as

1042
00:49:38,080 --> 00:49:40,719
Speaker 2: of right now. He can still you know, turn into

1043
00:49:40,719 --> 00:49:43,200
Speaker 2: a decent quarterback. But if you look at any metric

1044
00:49:43,520 --> 00:49:46,959
Speaker 2: across the board, he has been the worst rookie. He's

1045
00:49:47,040 --> 00:49:50,279
Speaker 2: just been horrendous. What have we also seen this year?

1046
00:49:50,719 --> 00:49:54,440
Speaker 2: We've seen quarterbacks come back from injury, right, and you

1047
00:49:54,520 --> 00:49:57,480
Speaker 2: look awful. There's rust. It takes a while to get

1048
00:49:57,520 --> 00:50:01,560
Speaker 2: back into the flow a struggling rookie coming back from injury. Look,

1049
00:50:01,600 --> 00:50:04,760
Speaker 2: I have no problem taking the Texans, why barely ahead

1050
00:50:05,080 --> 00:50:08,000
Speaker 2: of the Jets if they had Flacco. Jets really gonna

1051
00:50:08,000 --> 00:50:10,600
Speaker 2: get up for this game, don't I don't know. But

1052
00:50:10,640 --> 00:50:15,360
Speaker 2: the Texans have Tyrod Taylor, the Jets have Zach Wilson.

1053
00:50:15,760 --> 00:50:18,400
Speaker 2: That's pretty much as simple as a handicap as I

1054
00:50:18,400 --> 00:50:20,560
Speaker 2: can give you. I'm getting the home team under three

1055
00:50:20,600 --> 00:50:24,040
Speaker 2: with a quarterback who has shown me nothing so far.

1056
00:50:24,480 --> 00:50:26,279
Speaker 2: He got us to the window in Tennessee with some

1057
00:50:26,400 --> 00:50:31,120
Speaker 2: lucky throws, but other than that he's been horrendous. Might

1058
00:50:31,160 --> 00:50:33,759
Speaker 2: be a huge bust. We'll find out. But give me

1059
00:50:33,800 --> 00:50:35,960
Speaker 2: Tyrod Taylor and his legs at defense. I got some

1060
00:50:36,000 --> 00:50:39,680
Speaker 2: confidence last week with that Tennessee win, picking off Towne

1061
00:50:39,760 --> 00:50:42,560
Speaker 2: Hill four times, just went to three. Would not play

1062
00:50:42,560 --> 00:50:45,520
Speaker 2: it two and a half, no advanced handicap. Just give

1063
00:50:45,520 --> 00:50:46,239
Speaker 2: me the Texans.

1064
00:50:46,520 --> 00:50:48,960
Speaker 1: They're gonna sit back in that covered Tampa two. And

1065
00:50:49,080 --> 00:50:53,279
Speaker 1: that seems like not what you want. Zach Wilson. You know,

1066
00:50:53,440 --> 00:50:55,319
Speaker 1: a guy who likes to throw down the field and

1067
00:50:55,840 --> 00:50:59,440
Speaker 1: struggles three defenses, probably not what you want. So yeah,

1068
00:50:59,040 --> 00:51:01,480
Speaker 1: I don't Yeah, I kind of make it right in

1069
00:51:01,480 --> 00:51:03,680
Speaker 1: that two and a half three range. So I don't

1070
00:51:03,719 --> 00:51:05,319
Speaker 1: have a strong feel for this game. I mean, this

1071
00:51:05,400 --> 00:51:08,000
Speaker 1: is just two bad teams. Maybe if this is later

1072
00:51:08,040 --> 00:51:09,520
Speaker 1: in the weekend we were recording it, I would have

1073
00:51:09,520 --> 00:51:11,560
Speaker 1: a stronger take. But yeah, it's not much I can

1074
00:51:11,600 --> 00:51:14,759
Speaker 1: add other than they finally started playing Elijah more so

1075
00:51:14,800 --> 00:51:15,520
Speaker 1: our pep talk work.

1076
00:51:15,640 --> 00:51:17,600
Speaker 2: He looks great. Yeah, he looks great.

1077
00:51:17,680 --> 00:51:20,560
Speaker 1: All right, that's gonna do it for our week twelve

1078
00:51:21,000 --> 00:51:25,680
Speaker 1: Sunday six pack to recap, Stucky is going with the

1079
00:51:25,800 --> 00:51:29,920
Speaker 1: Rams plus one, the Panthers minus one and a half,

1080
00:51:30,200 --> 00:51:32,799
Speaker 1: and the Texans minus two and a half. I'm going

1081
00:51:32,840 --> 00:51:35,680
Speaker 1: with the Steelers plus four and a half, the Vikings

1082
00:51:35,680 --> 00:51:41,480
Speaker 1: plus three, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers minus three and

1083
00:51:41,520 --> 00:51:44,239
Speaker 1: that concludes our week twelve Sunday six pack presented by

1084
00:51:44,719 --> 00:51:48,840
Speaker 1: Athletic Brewing Company, whose innovative process allows them to brew

1085
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1086
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1087
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1088
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1089
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1090
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1091
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1092
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1093
00:52:22,160 --> 00:52:27,279
Speaker 1: taste of beer anytime and anywhere place in Order today

1094
00:52:27,320 --> 00:52:30,480
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1095
00:52:30,600 --> 00:52:33,600
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1096
00:52:33,640 --> 00:52:37,320
Speaker 1: off your order with promo code Action ten. That's act

1097
00:52:37,880 --> 00:52:43,960
Speaker 1: Ion one zero. Cheers. All right, now it is time

1098
00:52:44,120 --> 00:52:49,080
Speaker 1: four hour Week twelve Coaches Pep Talk. We sucked. That's

1099
00:52:49,120 --> 00:52:52,200
Speaker 1: what it boiled down to. I'm totally embarrassed and totally ashamed.

1100
00:52:52,520 --> 00:52:57,120
Speaker 1: This week's Coaches pep Talk comes from Steve Martin in

1101
00:52:57,200 --> 00:53:00,719
Speaker 1: the nineteen ninety film My Blue Heaven, And just like

1102
00:53:00,760 --> 00:53:04,000
Speaker 1: we did last Thanksgiving, we're dedicating it to America's most

1103
00:53:04,040 --> 00:53:10,160
Speaker 1: famous Italian American quarterback, Jimmy Garoppolo. Just hope he doesn't cover.

1104
00:53:10,920 --> 00:53:11,960
Speaker 1: I was in a hurry.

1105
00:53:12,160 --> 00:53:14,360
Speaker 5: I was on my way to church to say a

1106
00:53:14,400 --> 00:53:16,680
Speaker 5: few Nolvena's for Thanksgiving.

1107
00:53:16,800 --> 00:53:18,600
Speaker 2: Thanksgiving is not a Catholic holiday.

1108
00:53:19,000 --> 00:53:22,960
Speaker 5: Thanksgiving is very big with the Italians. Turkey catcher Tory

1109
00:53:23,480 --> 00:53:24,759
Speaker 5: sweep with Theta Parmerjan.

1110
00:53:24,840 --> 00:53:27,840
Speaker 1: There is no such thing as Thanksgiving in Italy.

1111
00:53:27,920 --> 00:53:29,320
Speaker 2: It is an American holiday.

1112
00:53:29,640 --> 00:53:33,840
Speaker 5: Ever been to Sicily by any chance? No, Thanksgiving is

1113
00:53:34,080 --> 00:53:37,600
Speaker 5: very big in Sicily on account of the large number

1114
00:53:37,640 --> 00:53:41,080
Speaker 5: of Sicilians who went to America and then got thrown

1115
00:53:41,120 --> 00:53:41,600
Speaker 5: back out.

1116
00:53:42,080 --> 00:53:44,600
Speaker 1: All right, let's get into our favorite total of the week. Buck.

1117
00:53:45,040 --> 00:53:46,480
Speaker 1: I went first with the six packs. Where are you

1118
00:53:46,520 --> 00:53:47,280
Speaker 1: going for the total.

1119
00:53:48,280 --> 00:53:53,520
Speaker 2: I'm going with the New England Patriots and Tennessee Titans

1120
00:53:53,760 --> 00:53:56,960
Speaker 2: under forty four and a half at MGM. The Titans

1121
00:53:56,960 --> 00:54:00,480
Speaker 2: are an underteen people, they're now an under team. That's

1122
00:54:00,520 --> 00:54:01,360
Speaker 2: string of overs.

1123
00:54:01,400 --> 00:54:03,279
Speaker 1: That's oh yeah, they're like twenty one and four or

1124
00:54:03,320 --> 00:54:05,680
Speaker 1: something like that. Something. Well, I have.

1125
00:54:05,719 --> 00:54:08,839
Speaker 2: News for the Titans are now defensive team. Uh. Their

1126
00:54:08,880 --> 00:54:10,440
Speaker 2: defense is really impressed me. They're getting a lot of

1127
00:54:10,440 --> 00:54:12,799
Speaker 2: pressure up front. You know, you have a couple of

1128
00:54:12,840 --> 00:54:14,799
Speaker 2: these guys, I mean, Buyer's playing at an all pro

1129
00:54:14,920 --> 00:54:17,560
Speaker 2: level of safety, but guys like Foldner coming on in

1130
00:54:17,680 --> 00:54:19,840
Speaker 2: a corner. But the pressure that they're able to generate

1131
00:54:20,320 --> 00:54:23,120
Speaker 2: up front is really making a huge difference for this defense.

1132
00:54:23,120 --> 00:54:25,719
Speaker 2: And they're able to do it without blitzing. Uh. Here's

1133
00:54:25,760 --> 00:54:30,760
Speaker 2: the Titans profile for you. Twenty second DVOA offense, twelfth

1134
00:54:30,840 --> 00:54:34,719
Speaker 2: in defense. Uh, they're you know, sixteenth in EPA per

1135
00:54:34,760 --> 00:54:38,080
Speaker 2: play offense. If you ever play defense better eleven or twelfth.

1136
00:54:38,200 --> 00:54:40,840
Speaker 2: This defense is way ahead of the offense.

1137
00:54:41,320 --> 00:54:41,560
Speaker 1: Now.

1138
00:54:41,840 --> 00:54:43,920
Speaker 2: In fairness, the offense is dealt with offensive line injuries.

1139
00:54:43,920 --> 00:54:47,480
Speaker 2: There's no Derrick Henry olia Jones is on ir A. J.

1140
00:54:47,680 --> 00:54:50,080
Speaker 2: Brown is banged up and guess what was a buy.

1141
00:54:50,200 --> 00:54:53,759
Speaker 2: Next week the Titans, and they're sitting in pretty good

1142
00:54:53,920 --> 00:54:56,160
Speaker 2: position for the playoffs. They are coming off a loss,

1143
00:54:56,160 --> 00:54:58,960
Speaker 2: but you might air on the side of caution with

1144
00:54:59,040 --> 00:55:02,399
Speaker 2: some of the injuries here, and their defense is playing up,

1145
00:55:02,800 --> 00:55:04,799
Speaker 2: and their defense is playing really well. I mean last

1146
00:55:04,800 --> 00:55:06,920
Speaker 2: week they lost to the Texans because their offense was

1147
00:55:07,000 --> 00:55:10,560
Speaker 2: that bad, right, I mean they had four picks. I

1148
00:55:10,880 --> 00:55:13,480
Speaker 2: don't think the Texans got the two hundred yards. So

1149
00:55:13,600 --> 00:55:15,800
Speaker 2: you go back to that Rams game, it looks like

1150
00:55:15,840 --> 00:55:17,440
Speaker 2: they scored a lot of points. It was all off

1151
00:55:17,440 --> 00:55:20,319
Speaker 2: the defense. They couldn't do anything on offense. How about

1152
00:55:20,320 --> 00:55:23,480
Speaker 2: the last five games in Titans total scores, total combine

1153
00:55:23,480 --> 00:55:27,960
Speaker 2: points thirty five, forty four, forty four, thirty and then

1154
00:55:28,040 --> 00:55:31,239
Speaker 2: sixty five in the overtime game against the Colts in

1155
00:55:31,280 --> 00:55:33,480
Speaker 2: again it was twenty four to twenty four at the

1156
00:55:33,560 --> 00:55:36,000
Speaker 2: end of regulation. But now that this Titan steve, this

1157
00:55:36,040 --> 00:55:39,000
Speaker 2: Titan's offense is a shelf itself. If AJ Brown does

1158
00:55:39,040 --> 00:55:43,680
Speaker 2: go Bill Belichick, get one job, get dick away A J. Brown,

1159
00:55:43,760 --> 00:55:46,439
Speaker 2: no one better at doing that. So I just don't

1160
00:55:46,480 --> 00:55:49,560
Speaker 2: see how this Titans offense has much success here. The

1161
00:55:49,600 --> 00:55:51,800
Speaker 2: whole offense is now just I mean, you know, obviously

1162
00:55:51,840 --> 00:55:55,600
Speaker 2: on the Polio Jones and you know A Brown's been

1163
00:55:55,640 --> 00:55:58,439
Speaker 2: banged up too, but the whole offense is built off

1164
00:55:58,440 --> 00:56:01,320
Speaker 2: of Derrick Henry running the ball and then the fear

1165
00:56:01,320 --> 00:56:03,120
Speaker 2: of defenses and having to react to that, and then

1166
00:56:03,120 --> 00:56:05,320
Speaker 2: the play action off of it. It's just a broken

1167
00:56:05,360 --> 00:56:08,640
Speaker 2: offense right now, and the defense is playing up. I

1168
00:56:08,640 --> 00:56:12,760
Speaker 2: don't think the market is respecting this Titans defense enough

1169
00:56:13,520 --> 00:56:15,719
Speaker 2: and took me a while to come around as well.

1170
00:56:16,760 --> 00:56:20,040
Speaker 2: And on the other side of the ball, the Patriots

1171
00:56:20,040 --> 00:56:23,720
Speaker 2: defense is bawling right now on all levels. They should

1172
00:56:23,719 --> 00:56:28,279
Speaker 2: shut down this Titans offense and these two teams that

1173
00:56:28,280 --> 00:56:31,600
Speaker 2: are twenty third and twenty fourth in situation mutual praise.

1174
00:56:31,640 --> 00:56:36,960
Speaker 2: I don't see the Titans getting to fourteen, past fourteen

1175
00:56:37,040 --> 00:56:38,920
Speaker 2: or seventeen in this game with the state of their

1176
00:56:38,960 --> 00:56:43,440
Speaker 2: offense right now. So I'll take my chances with the

1177
00:56:43,480 --> 00:56:48,600
Speaker 2: Titans defense, which is playing extremely well, holding the Patriots

1178
00:56:48,640 --> 00:56:53,120
Speaker 2: to say, you know, under twenty eight to thirty, which

1179
00:56:53,120 --> 00:56:56,160
Speaker 2: I think they can do, so give me the under here.

1180
00:56:56,719 --> 00:56:58,879
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, this Titan's the I know they put

1181
00:56:58,960 --> 00:57:02,680
Speaker 1: up yardage after we on Houston in a losing effort.

1182
00:57:02,960 --> 00:57:05,200
Speaker 1: Kind of one of those floopy games where they outgain

1183
00:57:05,280 --> 00:57:08,279
Speaker 1: Houston by a ton for twenty to one ninety but

1184
00:57:08,880 --> 00:57:10,799
Speaker 1: other you know, Rams they get one hundred ninety four

1185
00:57:10,840 --> 00:57:13,040
Speaker 1: yards of total offense. The Saints they get, you know,

1186
00:57:13,080 --> 00:57:15,239
Speaker 1: two hundred and sixty four. Now, those games are kind

1187
00:57:15,239 --> 00:57:18,200
Speaker 1: of the opposite game scripts a little bit, But I

1188
00:57:18,240 --> 00:57:22,280
Speaker 1: have real concerns about the Titans just generating yardage on

1189
00:57:22,360 --> 00:57:25,200
Speaker 1: a play to play in week to week basis going forward.

1190
00:57:25,240 --> 00:57:28,120
Speaker 1: So yeah, I don't disagree. I may join you here

1191
00:57:29,000 --> 00:57:32,320
Speaker 1: for my total. I was thinking about Denver and Chargers,

1192
00:57:33,000 --> 00:57:35,200
Speaker 1: but I think I'm actually gonna go with Carolina Miami

1193
00:57:35,280 --> 00:57:38,640
Speaker 1: under forty two at bet MGM, and you kind of

1194
00:57:38,680 --> 00:57:41,960
Speaker 1: hit on a lot of the key points. Miami offense

1195
00:57:42,360 --> 00:57:44,160
Speaker 1: going to struggle to get going because they can't run

1196
00:57:44,200 --> 00:57:46,240
Speaker 1: the ball, and on the other side, Carolina is not

1197
00:57:46,240 --> 00:57:48,520
Speaker 1: going to really have much interest in throwing it. So

1198
00:57:49,080 --> 00:57:51,000
Speaker 1: I think you're just going to see a kind of

1199
00:57:51,040 --> 00:57:55,080
Speaker 1: low scoring game with a lot of defensive plays. Carolina

1200
00:57:55,160 --> 00:57:58,439
Speaker 1: is twenty ninth in offensive DVOA, Miami's twenty eighth. Now,

1201
00:57:58,760 --> 00:58:01,400
Speaker 1: like you said, probably not, Carolina up a couple of

1202
00:58:01,440 --> 00:58:05,560
Speaker 1: ticks there because they have been playing with you know,

1203
00:58:05,600 --> 00:58:08,400
Speaker 1: not a full deck or as suppose it is now

1204
00:58:08,880 --> 00:58:12,160
Speaker 1: for much of the year. But still Miami's defense playing

1205
00:58:12,280 --> 00:58:14,959
Speaker 1: really well. Like you mentioned, Miami has given up nine,

1206
00:58:15,240 --> 00:58:18,480
Speaker 1: ten and seventeen points over the last three games. Yeah,

1207
00:58:18,520 --> 00:58:20,000
Speaker 1: one of them is against the Texans, one of them

1208
00:58:20,000 --> 00:58:21,680
Speaker 1: is against the Jets, but they also have the Ravens

1209
00:58:21,720 --> 00:58:24,680
Speaker 1: to ten points. This defense is really coming on strong.

1210
00:58:25,520 --> 00:58:28,120
Speaker 1: And you know, we saw Miami make a run last year.

1211
00:58:28,120 --> 00:58:31,840
Speaker 1: Brian Flores, it is a guy that I think defensively

1212
00:58:32,240 --> 00:58:35,720
Speaker 1: knows a little bit. So I just don't see this game,

1213
00:58:36,000 --> 00:58:38,360
Speaker 1: you know, getting to where both of these teams are

1214
00:58:38,360 --> 00:58:41,240
Speaker 1: in the twenties, you know, and that's pretty much what

1215
00:58:41,280 --> 00:58:43,760
Speaker 1: it comes down to. So give me the Panthers and

1216
00:58:43,840 --> 00:58:47,440
Speaker 1: the Dolphins under forty two. This is more like a

1217
00:58:47,520 --> 00:58:49,720
Speaker 1: forty thirty nine to forty type of total for me.

1218
00:58:50,680 --> 00:58:52,280
Speaker 1: And we could have a lot of humidity. I think

1219
00:58:52,520 --> 00:58:55,120
Speaker 1: we are in Miami, humidity is high. That usually helps

1220
00:58:55,160 --> 00:58:58,520
Speaker 1: the unders as well. All right, with the recap, stucky

1221
00:58:58,560 --> 00:59:01,200
Speaker 1: gooing Patriots type under forty four and a half, I'm

1222
00:59:01,200 --> 00:59:05,680
Speaker 1: going Panthers Dolphins under forty two. Nowa it's time for

1223
00:59:06,280 --> 00:59:15,040
Speaker 1: our favorite teaser of the week. Oh yeah, six point teasers. Team,

1224
00:59:15,760 --> 00:59:26,680
Speaker 1: don't change, don't tease me, try to please. You're unfamiliar

1225
00:59:26,720 --> 00:59:30,080
Speaker 1: with teasers. It's when you get an additional amount of

1226
00:59:30,080 --> 00:59:32,720
Speaker 1: points towards the spread allocated when you make two or

1227
00:59:32,760 --> 00:59:35,520
Speaker 1: more bets. So, for example, an eight point favorite would

1228
00:59:35,560 --> 00:59:38,560
Speaker 1: become just a two point favorite, and an eight point

1229
00:59:38,640 --> 00:59:40,800
Speaker 1: underdog would become a fourteen point underdog if you had

1230
00:59:40,800 --> 00:59:43,360
Speaker 1: a six point teaser, which is the standard. Stuck has

1231
00:59:43,360 --> 00:59:46,040
Speaker 1: a lot of great content out on teasers. You could

1232
00:59:46,080 --> 00:59:48,800
Speaker 1: just google Stucky and teasers or search it on Action

1233
00:59:48,920 --> 00:59:53,320
Speaker 1: network dot com. Stuck. Where you're going with your teaser?

1234
00:59:53,440 --> 00:59:56,439
Speaker 2: Four week twelve, Yeah, keep it simple here. I don't

1235
00:59:56,440 --> 00:59:58,720
Speaker 2: mind combining the Cowboys with one of these teams, but

1236
00:59:59,120 --> 01:00:02,120
Speaker 2: for just Sunday purposes, I will be on this teaser

1237
01:00:02,680 --> 01:00:05,720
Speaker 2: teasing the Vikings up from two and a half or

1238
01:00:05,720 --> 01:00:09,080
Speaker 2: from three to nine, and the Broncos up from two

1239
01:00:09,120 --> 01:00:11,680
Speaker 2: and a half to eight and a half against the Chargers,

1240
01:00:11,760 --> 01:00:14,160
Speaker 2: Broncos coming off of a bye, Chargers coming off that

1241
01:00:14,200 --> 01:00:16,040
Speaker 2: emotional game, and all the Charges do is play one

1242
01:00:16,040 --> 01:00:18,280
Speaker 2: posession games and guess what that's all the Vikings do

1243
01:00:18,360 --> 01:00:20,080
Speaker 2: is play one session games. Vikings have yet to play

1244
01:00:20,080 --> 01:00:22,080
Speaker 2: a game that has not been decided by one possession.

1245
01:00:22,360 --> 01:00:25,880
Speaker 2: Charges have only had two. So all these teams do

1246
01:00:25,920 --> 01:00:27,920
Speaker 2: is play close games. I expect both of these games

1247
01:00:27,920 --> 01:00:32,360
Speaker 2: to be close to just a war in in that

1248
01:00:32,440 --> 01:00:35,760
Speaker 2: San Francisco Minnesota game for playoff positioning with two teams

1249
01:00:35,800 --> 01:00:39,160
Speaker 2: playing really well, should be a very competitive game. You know,

1250
01:00:39,200 --> 01:00:40,520
Speaker 2: if you need cousins to go down and get a

1251
01:00:40,520 --> 01:00:44,600
Speaker 2: backdoor against this, you know the San Francisco secondary, which

1252
01:00:44,640 --> 01:00:47,040
Speaker 2: hasn't been great late playing prevent you should be able

1253
01:00:47,040 --> 01:00:50,720
Speaker 2: to get that too. Also, with the Broncos, as I mentioned,

1254
01:00:50,720 --> 01:00:54,160
Speaker 2: coming off of a bye here, arguably playing for their

1255
01:00:54,160 --> 01:00:57,600
Speaker 2: playoff lives at home, all Chargers do is play close games.

1256
01:00:57,600 --> 01:00:59,000
Speaker 2: Their special teams will keep you in it if their

1257
01:00:59,080 --> 01:01:01,520
Speaker 2: run defense can't. But this, I think this Broncos team

1258
01:01:01,560 --> 01:01:06,240
Speaker 2: can be is able to attack this Staley defense through

1259
01:01:06,240 --> 01:01:11,080
Speaker 2: the run through some short passes with Bridgewater Bridgewater underdog

1260
01:01:11,080 --> 01:01:14,080
Speaker 2: goat by the way, So I think the Broncos can

1261
01:01:14,160 --> 01:01:15,880
Speaker 2: keep this close in the division game. So I think

1262
01:01:15,880 --> 01:01:20,680
Speaker 2: those are the two most logical sides to tease this weekend.

1263
01:01:21,200 --> 01:01:25,280
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm going with the Broncos as well, and I'm

1264
01:01:25,360 --> 01:01:28,160
Speaker 1: gonna go with the Rams here just because you get

1265
01:01:28,200 --> 01:01:30,280
Speaker 1: them the plus one up to plus seven. I just

1266
01:01:30,440 --> 01:01:32,320
Speaker 1: I think they're gonna win this game, but I don't

1267
01:01:32,400 --> 01:01:35,720
Speaker 1: see them losing by more than a touchdown either way. Like,

1268
01:01:35,880 --> 01:01:37,680
Speaker 1: I think they're gonna hang right in it, maybe get

1269
01:01:37,760 --> 01:01:40,320
Speaker 1: unlucky with like an overtime and Packers win on like

1270
01:01:40,360 --> 01:01:43,240
Speaker 1: a long bout of the Scantling bomb or something like that. Hope,

1271
01:01:43,280 --> 01:01:46,120
Speaker 1: not because I bet the Rams, but I'll go Rams

1272
01:01:46,120 --> 01:01:48,440
Speaker 1: plus one and plus seven and the Broncos for the

1273
01:01:48,440 --> 01:01:51,480
Speaker 1: same reason you said. I think it's Chargers team. You know,

1274
01:01:51,760 --> 01:01:54,400
Speaker 1: I love I like Staley. I think he's a good coach,

1275
01:01:54,440 --> 01:01:57,120
Speaker 1: but he still seems a little bit overrated. I mean,

1276
01:01:57,120 --> 01:02:00,160
Speaker 1: every week they're playing coast games, they're surviving on if

1277
01:02:00,160 --> 01:02:02,480
Speaker 1: they're down luck. Herbert looks amazing one moment, in the

1278
01:02:02,480 --> 01:02:06,160
Speaker 1: next moment its making like a head scratching play. So yeah,

1279
01:02:06,200 --> 01:02:10,320
Speaker 1: eight special teams still stay Yeah in Mile High. Wait

1280
01:02:10,360 --> 01:02:13,640
Speaker 1: in the season Broncos coming off of bye. I mean,

1281
01:02:13,680 --> 01:02:15,680
Speaker 1: if this guy's the three, is a good argument to

1282
01:02:15,720 --> 01:02:19,000
Speaker 1: just play the Broncos here. But it's two and a half,

1283
01:02:19,040 --> 01:02:21,400
Speaker 1: so we will tease it up so yeah, that's what.

1284
01:02:21,320 --> 01:02:23,440
Speaker 2: We're Yeah, and by the way, it's a good it's

1285
01:02:23,440 --> 01:02:27,439
Speaker 2: a well timed bye week for Denver as well. It's

1286
01:02:27,440 --> 01:02:29,919
Speaker 2: a team that, hey, take a look at what they

1287
01:02:29,960 --> 01:02:33,920
Speaker 2: had their defense, their projected starting defense coming into the air,

1288
01:02:33,960 --> 01:02:35,960
Speaker 2: and then take a look at the defense now, especially

1289
01:02:36,040 --> 01:02:40,280
Speaker 2: at linebacker. You know, some guys in the secondary also

1290
01:02:40,280 --> 01:02:42,760
Speaker 2: brought the chuck will be back this week. But having

1291
01:02:42,800 --> 01:02:46,439
Speaker 2: Fangio take those two weeks and figure some things out,

1292
01:02:46,560 --> 01:02:48,640
Speaker 2: work out some kinks with a lot of the new pieces,

1293
01:02:49,400 --> 01:02:52,600
Speaker 2: I think you'll see a sharper defense out of the

1294
01:02:52,600 --> 01:02:53,080
Speaker 2: by here.

1295
01:02:53,440 --> 01:02:55,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's what I thought about the total in this game.

1296
01:02:55,680 --> 01:02:57,120
Speaker 1: You know, he did good things.

1297
01:02:57,320 --> 01:02:58,920
Speaker 2: He did what he did last weekend. If you look

1298
01:02:58,920 --> 01:03:01,560
Speaker 2: at the defense out great out last year, like and

1299
01:03:01,600 --> 01:03:05,280
Speaker 2: it was a shell unit of all those injuries. So yeah,

1300
01:03:05,280 --> 01:03:06,479
Speaker 2: I don't mind the underlook either.

1301
01:03:06,880 --> 01:03:08,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, may end up playing that one as well. You know,

1302
01:03:08,840 --> 01:03:10,640
Speaker 1: it's just the Fangio and Stale. You got the two

1303
01:03:11,200 --> 01:03:14,080
Speaker 1: you know, deep safety gods, kind of fair and off

1304
01:03:14,080 --> 01:03:15,880
Speaker 1: against each other. So this could be in like a

1305
01:03:15,880 --> 01:03:19,120
Speaker 1: twenty seventeen another twenty seventeen type game, even though the

1306
01:03:19,120 --> 01:03:21,840
Speaker 1: offenses have been better than the defenses for both for

1307
01:03:21,880 --> 01:03:23,840
Speaker 1: both teams this year, all right, that's gonna do it.

1308
01:03:23,840 --> 01:03:26,880
Speaker 1: For our favorite teaser, Stucky is going with Minnesota plus

1309
01:03:26,880 --> 01:03:29,400
Speaker 1: three up to plus nine and Denver plus two and

1310
01:03:29,440 --> 01:03:31,280
Speaker 1: a half up to plus eight and a half. And

1311
01:03:31,320 --> 01:03:33,360
Speaker 1: I'm going with the Rams plus one to plus seven

1312
01:03:33,440 --> 01:03:35,520
Speaker 1: and the Broncos plus two and a half to plus

1313
01:03:35,560 --> 01:03:37,600
Speaker 1: eight and a half. Now it's time for our money

1314
01:03:37,600 --> 01:03:39,080
Speaker 1: line underdog parlay.

1315
01:03:42,040 --> 01:03:46,960
Speaker 2: Turning good weekends into great weekends. It's time for the

1316
01:03:47,120 --> 01:03:48,440
Speaker 2: money line parlay.

1317
01:03:49,640 --> 01:03:54,240
Speaker 1: All right, almost almost had had the Pittsburgh Steelers do it,

1318
01:03:54,320 --> 01:03:58,120
Speaker 1: and the same statement. They weren't very close, but alas

1319
01:03:58,280 --> 01:04:00,240
Speaker 1: we got to get back and hit another one. These

1320
01:04:00,240 --> 01:04:02,640
Speaker 1: have been doing pretty good this year. Where are you

1321
01:04:02,720 --> 01:04:04,439
Speaker 1: going for your moneyline dog this week?

1322
01:04:05,120 --> 01:04:08,120
Speaker 2: I am gonna go with the Jacksonville Jaguars against the

1323
01:04:08,160 --> 01:04:13,200
Speaker 2: Atlanta Falcons. This Jacksonville Jaguars defensive front is really underrated.

1324
01:04:13,760 --> 01:04:15,400
Speaker 2: I've checked them out a lot. I mean, look at

1325
01:04:15,400 --> 01:04:18,000
Speaker 2: the run defensive metrics, like they're able to get some pressure.

1326
01:04:18,400 --> 01:04:20,320
Speaker 2: The Bills are having a like triple team. Take them.

1327
01:04:20,360 --> 01:04:25,040
Speaker 2: Brian and the Falcons just stink, and I make the Jags.

1328
01:04:25,400 --> 01:04:27,640
Speaker 2: I'm so surprised by this based on where I started

1329
01:04:28,200 --> 01:04:29,720
Speaker 2: both teams at the beginning of the year. But I

1330
01:04:29,720 --> 01:04:31,960
Speaker 2: make the Jags a slight favorite here. The Falcons are

1331
01:04:32,040 --> 01:04:35,880
Speaker 2: just awful. They look lifeless. There's just nothing going great

1332
01:04:36,000 --> 01:04:39,920
Speaker 2: for them. I'll take a shot with the Jags here

1333
01:04:40,000 --> 01:04:44,200
Speaker 2: and Trevor Lawrence. This Falcons team is bad. Aj Terrell

1334
01:04:44,600 --> 01:04:47,320
Speaker 2: is turning into a hell of a player at corner

1335
01:04:47,360 --> 01:04:50,400
Speaker 2: and like the next crop of really good corners, and

1336
01:04:50,600 --> 01:04:56,640
Speaker 2: Quadrell Patterson, Kordell Patterson is unbelievable to watch. Pitts will

1337
01:04:56,680 --> 01:04:58,920
Speaker 2: eventually be good at it's good now, but I mean

1338
01:04:59,000 --> 01:05:02,280
Speaker 2: like a really good Premiere tight end. Their kicker is good.

1339
01:05:02,520 --> 01:05:04,840
Speaker 2: That's about it. Those are the only positive things I

1340
01:05:04,840 --> 01:05:07,440
Speaker 2: could say about this Falcons team. And they don't get

1341
01:05:07,440 --> 01:05:09,640
Speaker 2: any pressure at all, so Lawrence won't have to worry

1342
01:05:09,640 --> 01:05:11,600
Speaker 2: about that. And I think that he can make enough

1343
01:05:11,640 --> 01:05:14,040
Speaker 2: plays here. And I don't know, I think the tell

1344
01:05:14,040 --> 01:05:15,480
Speaker 2: of the shot to win this game, and I think

1345
01:05:15,480 --> 01:05:17,040
Speaker 2: they should be a small favorites so we can we

1346
01:05:17,080 --> 01:05:17,840
Speaker 2: can roll with Urban.

1347
01:05:18,720 --> 01:05:21,760
Speaker 1: Yeah, I actually don't hate it. I you know, the Falcons.

1348
01:05:21,920 --> 01:05:25,800
Speaker 1: I mean, Jesus, if Cordero doesn't play, then it's a smash,

1349
01:05:25,880 --> 01:05:28,000
Speaker 1: butot I mean that they almost have no chance. It's

1350
01:05:28,040 --> 01:05:31,400
Speaker 1: like they just can't generate offense. The defense isn't really

1351
01:05:31,720 --> 01:05:34,160
Speaker 1: doing much of anything. I mean what it was forty

1352
01:05:34,160 --> 01:05:36,240
Speaker 1: three to three and then twenty five to nothing without

1353
01:05:36,240 --> 01:05:38,240
Speaker 1: the last two scores that they lost by sixty eight

1354
01:05:38,280 --> 01:05:41,080
Speaker 1: to three over the last two weeks. That's they might

1355
01:05:41,120 --> 01:05:42,560
Speaker 1: be the worst team in the week. I mean, forget

1356
01:05:42,560 --> 01:05:46,440
Speaker 1: the Jets, forget the Jags, forget the Texans. Falcon have

1357
01:05:46,520 --> 01:05:49,960
Speaker 1: a good case for it for my moneyline dog. You

1358
01:05:50,000 --> 01:05:53,200
Speaker 1: know where I'm going with this, Mike tom Win Pittsburgh

1359
01:05:53,240 --> 01:05:57,400
Speaker 1: plus one sixty at bet mgm tom Win on the

1360
01:05:57,440 --> 01:06:00,680
Speaker 1: money line from October on as an un dog twenty

1361
01:06:00,680 --> 01:06:04,080
Speaker 1: eight and twenty one fifty seven percent, as a dog

1362
01:06:04,400 --> 01:06:08,040
Speaker 1: off a loss twelve and eight straight up sixty percent,

1363
01:06:08,920 --> 01:06:11,880
Speaker 1: He's winning, you know, more than half of these games

1364
01:06:12,240 --> 01:06:15,560
Speaker 1: as a money line dog straight up. So you know,

1365
01:06:15,760 --> 01:06:19,240
Speaker 1: divisional game, like you mentioned, Big Ben tends to own

1366
01:06:19,320 --> 01:06:24,200
Speaker 1: these divisional opponents in Ohio. Revenge game for the Steelers,

1367
01:06:24,680 --> 01:06:28,280
Speaker 1: ra Ra Tomlins spot. You ain't new to us no more, now,

1368
01:06:28,680 --> 01:06:31,280
Speaker 1: you know what I mean. Steelers. You know, first time

1369
01:06:31,320 --> 01:06:34,720
Speaker 1: they lost in like over a month. Last week, you're

1370
01:06:34,880 --> 01:06:37,960
Speaker 1: they're gonna be focused. Bengals a little bit of a

1371
01:06:38,040 --> 01:06:40,440
Speaker 1: letdown spot coming off a blowout win in the Raiders,

1372
01:06:40,440 --> 01:06:44,480
Speaker 1: So give me Pittsburgh plus one sixty and if you

1373
01:06:44,520 --> 01:06:47,240
Speaker 1: parlay those together, it's a just a little over a

1374
01:06:47,280 --> 01:06:51,120
Speaker 1: four x payout. So if you put in one hundred hours,

1375
01:06:51,440 --> 01:06:53,680
Speaker 1: you get back five oh seven sixty two for a

1376
01:06:53,720 --> 01:06:56,600
Speaker 1: profit of four oh seven sixty two. That is according

1377
01:06:56,600 --> 01:07:00,360
Speaker 1: to the Action Network Parlay calculator, which you can find

1378
01:07:00,400 --> 01:07:03,240
Speaker 1: at Action network dot com or in the Action Network app.

1379
01:07:05,760 --> 01:07:10,000
Speaker 6: The Action Network podcast is proudly presented by betmgm, and

1380
01:07:10,080 --> 01:07:13,640
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01:07:34,360 --> 01:07:37,240
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1398
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1399
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01:08:15,480 --> 01:08:18,200
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1402
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1403
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Speaker 6: One eight hundred two seven zero seven to one one

1404
01:08:26,520 --> 01:08:29,040
Speaker 6: seven in Michigan, one eight hundred eight eight nine nine

1405
01:08:29,160 --> 01:08:31,519
Speaker 6: seven eight nine in Tennessee. One eight hundred bets off

1406
01:08:31,560 --> 01:08:34,000
Speaker 6: in Iowa or one eight eight eight five three two

1407
01:08:34,080 --> 01:08:37,680
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1408
01:08:37,760 --> 01:08:39,960
Speaker 6: Thanks so much for listening. Let's get back to the.

1409
01:08:39,880 --> 01:08:43,040
Speaker 1: Show all right now as time for best of the rest,

1410
01:08:43,080 --> 01:08:45,240
Speaker 1: which are the games we didn't break down in any

1411
01:08:45,360 --> 01:08:48,160
Speaker 1: other segment. First up, we got Phillies at the Giants.

1412
01:08:48,600 --> 01:08:51,120
Speaker 1: Three and a half is what Philly's laying on the

1413
01:08:51,200 --> 01:08:52,680
Speaker 1: road with a total of forty six.

1414
01:08:53,160 --> 01:08:56,479
Speaker 2: By the way, the Philly offense, they went really run heavy.

1415
01:08:56,479 --> 01:08:59,040
Speaker 2: We were saying early near run the ball more. Over

1416
01:08:59,120 --> 01:09:03,080
Speaker 2: the past four games, they've been the number one rush

1417
01:09:03,120 --> 01:09:06,599
Speaker 2: heavy team. Yeah, in on early downs and what has

1418
01:09:06,600 --> 01:09:09,280
Speaker 2: their offense done? Second in EPA per play over the

1419
01:09:09,360 --> 01:09:12,360
Speaker 2: past four weeks, top five in both rush and dropback

1420
01:09:12,720 --> 01:09:17,320
Speaker 2: EPA since going run heavy four weeks ago. Happened after

1421
01:09:17,320 --> 01:09:20,639
Speaker 2: that Raiders game. Eagles defense, by the way over that stretch,

1422
01:09:20,960 --> 01:09:24,400
Speaker 2: third in EPA from play, Corners are playing really well.

1423
01:09:24,439 --> 01:09:27,840
Speaker 2: They're starting to figure this out. Band spot for the Giants,

1424
01:09:27,880 --> 01:09:29,720
Speaker 2: you know they're coming up a short week. You know

1425
01:09:29,760 --> 01:09:32,320
Speaker 2: they were on the road, they're coming back home. Daniel

1426
01:09:32,400 --> 01:09:35,559
Speaker 2: Jones is never great at home. But something else keep

1427
01:09:35,680 --> 01:09:38,200
Speaker 2: to worth owning Giants thirtieth and DVO against the run

1428
01:09:38,560 --> 01:09:42,879
Speaker 2: thirtieth in EPA per rush on defense and This Eagles

1429
01:09:43,000 --> 01:09:45,840
Speaker 2: offense is rolling right now. Competition wasn't great for those

1430
01:09:45,880 --> 01:09:47,680
Speaker 2: first three games, and then they played the Saints and

1431
01:09:47,760 --> 01:09:50,520
Speaker 2: ran all over the Saints who were having a historically

1432
01:09:50,560 --> 01:09:55,080
Speaker 2: great season from a run defense perspective. So, yeah, we

1433
01:09:55,080 --> 01:09:58,240
Speaker 2: were wondering about this staff. Now I'm a little bit

1434
01:09:58,280 --> 01:10:00,400
Speaker 2: more optimistic about some of the things that I'm seeing.

1435
01:10:00,800 --> 01:10:04,799
Speaker 2: Line is inflated based on what the Eagles have done lately,

1436
01:10:06,680 --> 01:10:08,320
Speaker 2: But I'm not sure I want any part of the

1437
01:10:08,360 --> 01:10:11,519
Speaker 2: Giants here. They seem like a team that's falling apart.

1438
01:10:11,600 --> 01:10:15,760
Speaker 2: Joe Judge calling out coaches and Jason Garrett and that

1439
01:10:15,840 --> 01:10:17,559
Speaker 2: the Eagles look good here, But I think the line's

1440
01:10:17,560 --> 01:10:19,439
Speaker 2: a little inflated. No interest for me.

1441
01:10:20,240 --> 01:10:22,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's got to be a stay away. I mean,

1442
01:10:22,360 --> 01:10:24,920
Speaker 1: Daniel Jones is six and twelve, thirty three percent against

1443
01:10:24,920 --> 01:10:27,439
Speaker 1: the spread at home, Giants twenty fifth and early down

1444
01:10:27,479 --> 01:10:29,559
Speaker 1: success rate against the run on defense. You mentioned the

1445
01:10:29,560 --> 01:10:33,519
Speaker 1: thirtieth and DVA, but I'm still not weighing three and

1446
01:10:33,560 --> 01:10:37,479
Speaker 1: a half points on the road divisional game late in

1447
01:10:37,520 --> 01:10:40,320
Speaker 1: the year. It's just just a line that there's really

1448
01:10:40,360 --> 01:10:41,880
Speaker 1: nothing to do with it because you want to play

1449
01:10:41,880 --> 01:10:44,880
Speaker 1: the Eagles, but the number is just there's no value

1450
01:10:44,920 --> 01:10:47,879
Speaker 1: on the number. And the other game, we have Cleveland

1451
01:10:47,960 --> 01:10:52,599
Speaker 1: at Baltimore Ravens four point favorites, the total forty six.

1452
01:10:53,120 --> 01:10:56,920
Speaker 2: It's Baltimore, gentlemen, the gods will not save you.

1453
01:10:57,320 --> 01:10:59,519
Speaker 1: I'm assuming Lamar Jackson is going to be back for

1454
01:10:59,560 --> 01:11:01,840
Speaker 1: this one. Sunday night football has a little, you know,

1455
01:11:01,880 --> 01:11:04,559
Speaker 1: a couple extra hours to rest up here. What are

1456
01:11:04,560 --> 01:11:05,400
Speaker 1: your thoughts on this one?

1457
01:11:05,680 --> 01:11:08,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's Tuesday night and this is games on Sunday night,

1458
01:11:08,400 --> 01:11:10,840
Speaker 2: and there's a lot of injury uncertainty. I think it

1459
01:11:10,880 --> 01:11:13,439
Speaker 2: looks like Conklin's going to be back. It looks like

1460
01:11:13,479 --> 01:11:16,719
Speaker 2: a Hunt might be back for the Browns. The Ravens

1461
01:11:16,720 --> 01:11:19,360
Speaker 2: have a lot of injuries across the board, receiver and

1462
01:11:19,439 --> 01:11:22,479
Speaker 2: the secondary. I think on the surface right now, from

1463
01:11:22,479 --> 01:11:24,160
Speaker 2: what I know, this line looks about right and I

1464
01:11:24,160 --> 01:11:27,840
Speaker 2: have no interest. But a lot can change between now

1465
01:11:27,840 --> 01:11:29,360
Speaker 2: that in the week I will have this game written up.

1466
01:11:29,800 --> 01:11:32,439
Speaker 2: I'll probably go way too in depth about it because

1467
01:11:32,479 --> 01:11:35,519
Speaker 2: it's a Ravens game and I'm looking forward to this one,

1468
01:11:35,520 --> 01:11:37,320
Speaker 2: but I don't see any value right now. A lot

1469
01:11:37,400 --> 01:11:40,679
Speaker 2: to change, a lot to figure out from an injury perspective,

1470
01:11:40,720 --> 01:11:43,720
Speaker 2: so make sure you check out actionwork dot com and

1471
01:11:43,800 --> 01:11:45,120
Speaker 2: the Action of Work ap later in the week in

1472
01:11:45,160 --> 01:11:47,240
Speaker 2: all the full right up for that game.

1473
01:11:48,360 --> 01:11:51,559
Speaker 1: Yeah, the Ravens have been doing decently in run defense.

1474
01:11:51,600 --> 01:11:54,439
Speaker 1: There are six to DVOA, so they're gonna need that.

1475
01:11:55,280 --> 01:11:57,320
Speaker 1: But yeah, I agree, just too many injuries throughly know

1476
01:11:57,360 --> 01:11:58,400
Speaker 1: what's going on at this point.

1477
01:11:59,360 --> 01:12:01,840
Speaker 2: The Browns Rounds run defense has been slipping lately. I'm

1478
01:12:01,840 --> 01:12:03,840
Speaker 2: trying to figure out what's going on with that, and

1479
01:12:03,960 --> 01:12:06,400
Speaker 2: I mean the Lions ran all over them. Penalties have

1480
01:12:06,439 --> 01:12:10,679
Speaker 2: been an issue. Baker Mayfield's not fully healthy, so there's

1481
01:12:10,720 --> 01:12:14,840
Speaker 2: a lot of uncertainty on both sides of the ball.

1482
01:12:15,880 --> 01:12:17,880
Speaker 2: But the penalties for the Browns, I mean, they have

1483
01:12:17,880 --> 01:12:20,000
Speaker 2: been really bet their number. I think they've yeah, their

1484
01:12:20,080 --> 01:12:22,840
Speaker 2: number one in the NFL, and penalty yards they've been

1485
01:12:22,920 --> 01:12:25,519
Speaker 2: killing the Browns as well. But Mayfield doesn't look comfortable.

1486
01:12:25,680 --> 01:12:28,360
Speaker 2: A lot of things going on on both sides of

1487
01:12:28,400 --> 01:12:31,080
Speaker 2: the ball here, So yeah, I'll be interested to break

1488
01:12:31,120 --> 01:12:32,080
Speaker 2: this one down later in the week.

1489
01:12:32,640 --> 01:12:35,439
Speaker 1: All right, let's go to our Survivor Pool Pick of

1490
01:12:35,439 --> 01:12:47,439
Speaker 1: the week. The Survivorpool Pick of the Week. You are

1491
01:12:47,479 --> 01:12:50,920
Speaker 1: still alive in your Survivor pool. I'm guessing, so I

1492
01:12:50,960 --> 01:12:52,320
Speaker 1: know you're going with Dallas this week.

1493
01:12:52,280 --> 01:12:54,439
Speaker 2: Right, got a bad feeling about the Titans last week.

1494
01:12:54,439 --> 01:12:56,360
Speaker 2: I'm glad I went with the Box, kind of like

1495
01:12:56,360 --> 01:12:57,880
Speaker 2: the gut feeling out with the Dolphin. Hopefully it's going

1496
01:12:57,960 --> 01:13:00,439
Speaker 2: to be down to one thirty two six million take

1497
01:13:00,479 --> 01:13:02,519
Speaker 2: all this week. You got to pick one on Thanksgiving

1498
01:13:02,560 --> 01:13:05,280
Speaker 2: and one on Sunday. Brutal. I have to take the

1499
01:13:05,320 --> 01:13:08,200
Speaker 2: Cowboys here. I thought about going Raiders and then just

1500
01:13:08,240 --> 01:13:10,840
Speaker 2: trying to take the pot home or lines, but there's

1501
01:13:10,880 --> 01:13:12,559
Speaker 2: only one hundred and thirty people left. Have to just

1502
01:13:12,720 --> 01:13:14,400
Speaker 2: move on. I'm set up well with a lot of

1503
01:13:14,439 --> 01:13:16,840
Speaker 2: good teams left. Sunday is the hardest day left of

1504
01:13:16,840 --> 01:13:21,320
Speaker 2: the year. Yeah, I don't know who to take. I'm

1505
01:13:21,360 --> 01:13:24,000
Speaker 2: actually considering the Texans. So if you're just in a

1506
01:13:24,000 --> 01:13:26,479
Speaker 2: regular survival, I would take Dallas if you haven't even

1507
01:13:26,479 --> 01:13:30,559
Speaker 2: following me. But I'm thinking I'm getting the advice about

1508
01:13:30,560 --> 01:13:32,679
Speaker 2: the Ravens right now. But there's a lot that could

1509
01:13:32,720 --> 01:13:35,080
Speaker 2: change with injuries, and there's also a lot that could

1510
01:13:35,120 --> 01:13:37,320
Speaker 2: change with quarterback injuries and COVID, So I don't know

1511
01:13:37,439 --> 01:13:39,160
Speaker 2: my second pick's going to be As of right now,

1512
01:13:39,200 --> 01:13:42,519
Speaker 2: it's either going to be the Texans or the Ravens.

1513
01:13:43,520 --> 01:13:45,720
Speaker 2: Six million in line, I might be going with the Texans.

1514
01:13:47,280 --> 01:13:49,919
Speaker 2: I did it with the Dolphins and Persette against the Texans.

1515
01:13:50,439 --> 01:13:52,880
Speaker 2: Tyrod hooked me up with some picks. Maybe Tyro I

1516
01:13:52,920 --> 01:13:54,960
Speaker 2: can took me some touchdowns this week. So yeah, I'll

1517
01:13:55,000 --> 01:13:57,040
Speaker 2: let everyone know on Twitter, but Dallas would be my

1518
01:13:57,120 --> 01:13:58,799
Speaker 2: number one IVI I pick. I'm going with them on Thursday,

1519
01:13:58,920 --> 01:14:02,160
Speaker 2: and then it's either between the Raceagans and UH and

1520
01:14:02,280 --> 01:14:04,360
Speaker 2: the Texans less off to changes from an injury or

1521
01:14:04,360 --> 01:14:05,120
Speaker 2: COVID perspective.

1522
01:14:05,680 --> 01:14:07,559
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean I'm in a similar spot, and this

1523
01:14:07,760 --> 01:14:12,880
Speaker 1: podcast obviously not no stakes similar, but uh, I mean

1524
01:14:13,240 --> 01:14:15,280
Speaker 1: I think I want to go Chicago. I wanted to

1525
01:14:15,280 --> 01:14:16,960
Speaker 1: go Chicago with the more I think about it, I

1526
01:14:16,960 --> 01:14:22,280
Speaker 1: mean divisional game home you know, home Dog is Detroit games.

1527
01:14:22,280 --> 01:14:26,000
Speaker 1: I usually don't. Yeah, it's usually I don't. But then

1528
01:14:26,000 --> 01:14:28,320
Speaker 1: I kind of have to go with the Texans. The Browns.

1529
01:14:28,479 --> 01:14:30,240
Speaker 1: You can't go brown I don't think you can go

1530
01:14:30,360 --> 01:14:34,720
Speaker 1: Ravens at this point. You know, another divisional game just uncertainty.

1531
01:14:34,760 --> 01:14:37,960
Speaker 1: You know who practices all week for them? Oh, let's

1532
01:14:38,000 --> 01:14:39,160
Speaker 1: go Texans.

1533
01:14:39,520 --> 01:14:40,280
Speaker 2: Yeah.

1534
01:14:40,360 --> 01:14:43,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, like we got we can root for

1535
01:14:43,120 --> 01:14:47,000
Speaker 1: the same thing. God, yeah, I don't want any part

1536
01:14:47,000 --> 01:14:47,479
Speaker 1: of the Bears.

1537
01:14:47,800 --> 01:14:50,240
Speaker 2: I might be a mess on Sunday, and then if

1538
01:14:50,240 --> 01:14:52,960
Speaker 2: the Texans lose, I'll have to like root against the

1539
01:14:53,040 --> 01:14:55,519
Speaker 2: Ravens in a way so I won't be regretting it.

1540
01:14:56,200 --> 01:14:59,640
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, right, I mean, good luck, man, that's that's

1541
01:14:59,640 --> 01:15:02,800
Speaker 1: impress I mean even getting down to one thirty three

1542
01:15:02,840 --> 01:15:05,720
Speaker 1: obviously impressive. And you're twelve and oh or eleven and

1543
01:15:05,800 --> 01:15:07,880
Speaker 1: o on the on the show so far this year,

1544
01:15:07,920 --> 01:15:08,920
Speaker 1: so let's keep it going.

1545
01:15:09,479 --> 01:15:12,479
Speaker 2: Yep, all right, Happy Thanksgiving brother, and enjoy your holiday,

1546
01:15:12,520 --> 01:15:16,479
Speaker 2: and it's uh looking forward to keeping this going till

1547
01:15:16,479 --> 01:15:17,000
Speaker 2: the end of the year.

1548
01:15:17,439 --> 01:15:18,920
Speaker 1: There, Happy thank you for having to you and yours,

1549
01:15:19,000 --> 01:15:21,160
Speaker 1: and same thing goes for everyone out there. Thank you

1550
01:15:21,200 --> 01:15:25,280
Speaker 1: guys again for listening, and enjoy the holidays. Be safe

1551
01:15:25,320 --> 01:15:27,360
Speaker 1: out there. As a reminder, you can follow all our

1552
01:15:27,720 --> 01:15:30,360
Speaker 1: picks on the award winning Action Network app. Just follow

1553
01:15:30,400 --> 01:15:33,280
Speaker 1: the Sunday six pack in the apps follow feature. You

1554
01:15:33,320 --> 01:15:36,120
Speaker 1: can find stuck on Twitter at Stucky two and meet

1555
01:15:36,160 --> 01:15:38,200
Speaker 1: at Chris Raybond. You can find us at those same

1556
01:15:38,240 --> 01:15:42,120
Speaker 1: handles in the Action app where you can track all

1557
01:15:42,160 --> 01:15:43,960
Speaker 1: your bets for free. Be sure to check out Action

1558
01:15:44,040 --> 01:15:47,000
Speaker 1: network dot com for our betting content. Check out Fantasy

1559
01:15:47,040 --> 01:15:50,640
Speaker 1: lab dot com for our NFL DFS content, tools and models.

1560
01:15:51,000 --> 01:15:52,639
Speaker 1: So next time, let's get this money.

1561
01:15:53,360 --> 01:15:53,560
Speaker 5: I go