1 00:00:00,320 --> 00:00:04,160 Speaker 1: Who you put your trust in matters. Investors have put 2 00:00:04,200 --> 00:00:07,640 Speaker 1: their trust in independent registered investment advisors to the tune 3 00:00:07,640 --> 00:00:12,240 Speaker 1: of four trillion dollars. Why learn more and find your 4 00:00:12,280 --> 00:00:27,240 Speaker 1: independent advisor dot com. Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. 5 00:00:27,320 --> 00:00:31,320 Speaker 1: I'm Tom Keane. Always with Michael McKee. Daily we bring 6 00:00:31,360 --> 00:00:35,280 Speaker 1: you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, and 7 00:00:35,360 --> 00:00:41,519 Speaker 1: international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on iTunes, SoundCloud, Bloomberg dot com, 8 00:00:41,560 --> 00:00:48,159 Speaker 1: and of course, on the Bloomberg I'm now joined by 9 00:00:48,159 --> 00:00:51,360 Speaker 1: the vice Chairman of the Fellow Reserve System, Stanley Fisher, 10 00:00:51,760 --> 00:00:55,880 Speaker 1: Professor Fisher. Wonderful to speak to you again. I want 11 00:00:55,880 --> 00:00:58,560 Speaker 1: to get out of the way the September December dance. 12 00:00:58,600 --> 00:01:00,279 Speaker 1: I'm not gonna ask you what you're gonna do here 13 00:01:00,320 --> 00:01:01,680 Speaker 1: in a few weeks, because you're not going to give 14 00:01:01,720 --> 00:01:04,480 Speaker 1: me an answer. What I want to know it's not 15 00:01:04,560 --> 00:01:08,720 Speaker 1: the if. But when there is a rate increase, can 16 00:01:08,800 --> 00:01:13,240 Speaker 1: you ensure yell and frame a one off event or 17 00:01:13,280 --> 00:01:18,679 Speaker 1: are you forced into a measured higher vector of rate increases? 18 00:01:18,760 --> 00:01:21,840 Speaker 1: Can you do one and done or even two and done, 19 00:01:22,280 --> 00:01:25,639 Speaker 1: or do you have to go to a measured set 20 00:01:25,720 --> 00:01:29,119 Speaker 1: of rate increases like what we saw a decade ago. Well, 21 00:01:29,200 --> 00:01:34,119 Speaker 1: the the work of the Central Bank has never done. 22 00:01:34,160 --> 00:01:36,280 Speaker 1: And I don't think you can say one and done 23 00:01:36,319 --> 00:01:41,039 Speaker 1: and that's it. Uh. We can choose the pace, but 24 00:01:41,240 --> 00:01:44,000 Speaker 1: we choose the pace on the beta basis of data 25 00:01:44,040 --> 00:01:46,720 Speaker 1: that are coming in. So I don't think we know 26 00:01:46,920 --> 00:01:50,360 Speaker 1: at the time we start whether it's one and done 27 00:01:50,560 --> 00:01:55,040 Speaker 1: or several. Uh. It depends entirely on what's happening in 28 00:01:55,080 --> 00:01:59,520 Speaker 1: the economy. It's your Aspen speech, you stated, I am 29 00:01:59,560 --> 00:02:03,000 Speaker 1: an optimists. You are surrounded by pessimists. We speak to 30 00:02:03,040 --> 00:02:06,520 Speaker 1: them every day on Bloomberg Television and Bloomberg Radio. I 31 00:02:06,560 --> 00:02:11,000 Speaker 1: want you to redefine Marvin good Friends comment at Jackson 32 00:02:11,080 --> 00:02:17,320 Speaker 1: Hall of pervasive pessimism. It's out there. Pervasive pessimism exists today. 33 00:02:17,520 --> 00:02:21,440 Speaker 1: How do you push back against that. Well, the question 34 00:02:21,560 --> 00:02:24,840 Speaker 1: is what is a pessimism about. It's not about employment. 35 00:02:24,960 --> 00:02:29,800 Speaker 1: Employment is very close to full employment. It's about growth, 36 00:02:30,080 --> 00:02:35,480 Speaker 1: and that problem is largely about productivity growth, something which 37 00:02:36,520 --> 00:02:42,480 Speaker 1: is very hard to control by policymakers. It depends enormously 38 00:02:42,560 --> 00:02:47,160 Speaker 1: on what private individuals are doing in their companies, and 39 00:02:47,800 --> 00:02:51,840 Speaker 1: it's very slow at the moment. It changes from time 40 00:02:51,880 --> 00:02:55,519 Speaker 1: to time, but we do not know when it will change. 41 00:02:55,560 --> 00:02:58,160 Speaker 1: I expect it will change somewhere down the road. There 42 00:02:58,200 --> 00:03:02,760 Speaker 1: are remarkable things going on on the technological front, but 43 00:03:02,960 --> 00:03:06,120 Speaker 1: they are not yet in the data you mentioned. Also, 44 00:03:06,200 --> 00:03:10,320 Speaker 1: the unmitigated blessings of the United States America is different, 45 00:03:10,320 --> 00:03:12,400 Speaker 1: and certainly you and cher yell And are running a 46 00:03:12,440 --> 00:03:16,840 Speaker 1: central bank distinct from the challenges that other central banks have. 47 00:03:17,320 --> 00:03:20,280 Speaker 1: Do you feel going into the September meeting, or for 48 00:03:20,320 --> 00:03:23,400 Speaker 1: that matter, the December meeting, that you are the central 49 00:03:23,400 --> 00:03:26,160 Speaker 1: bankers to the world or you can you be discreet 50 00:03:26,520 --> 00:03:30,240 Speaker 1: and look only at the United States economics? Well, they 51 00:03:30,320 --> 00:03:34,960 Speaker 1: will has become increasingly interconnected, particularly the capital markets of 52 00:03:35,000 --> 00:03:38,720 Speaker 1: the world. So what we do affects many other countries. 53 00:03:39,440 --> 00:03:42,560 Speaker 1: That was always so it's also true that what they 54 00:03:42,600 --> 00:03:48,160 Speaker 1: do affects us. So we're dealing with interconnectedness. And we 55 00:03:48,280 --> 00:03:51,960 Speaker 1: are probably the most important of the central banks. But 56 00:03:52,120 --> 00:03:56,720 Speaker 1: the European Central Bank is operating in an area of 57 00:03:56,800 --> 00:04:00,280 Speaker 1: about the same level of g d P, and what 58 00:04:00,440 --> 00:04:03,280 Speaker 1: it does matter is a great deal and so on. 59 00:04:04,280 --> 00:04:07,760 Speaker 1: Different economists. Paul Krugman at Princeton and your colleague Oliviable 60 00:04:07,800 --> 00:04:10,800 Speaker 1: and chartedt M I t have a primal screen to 61 00:04:10,840 --> 00:04:15,240 Speaker 1: go back to simpler economic models, to move from the 62 00:04:15,320 --> 00:04:19,680 Speaker 1: modern mumbo jumbo back to simpler models more hooked into 63 00:04:20,080 --> 00:04:23,520 Speaker 1: the real economy. The debate at Jackson Hall and the 64 00:04:23,560 --> 00:04:26,359 Speaker 1: debate you're having at the FED, does it need to 65 00:04:26,400 --> 00:04:29,360 Speaker 1: go back to simpler models that you taught years ago 66 00:04:29,440 --> 00:04:33,920 Speaker 1: at M I T, well, we don't love simplicity. Uh. 67 00:04:34,600 --> 00:04:39,520 Speaker 1: The question is I think DSG models is they're called 68 00:04:39,520 --> 00:04:43,640 Speaker 1: those which are fundamentally forward looking, uh, and the future 69 00:04:43,680 --> 00:04:47,520 Speaker 1: matters and the expectations matter, or those which are more 70 00:04:47,560 --> 00:04:50,560 Speaker 1: traditional but maybe very big. The basic model that the 71 00:04:50,560 --> 00:04:54,560 Speaker 1: FED uses, the so called furbus f R b U 72 00:04:54,760 --> 00:04:59,839 Speaker 1: S model, is actually large and quite complicated, but it's 73 00:05:00,040 --> 00:05:05,520 Speaker 1: structure is one that one could explain to economic students. Well, 74 00:05:05,520 --> 00:05:07,800 Speaker 1: I would actually explain it out to bankers, because what 75 00:05:08,000 --> 00:05:10,680 Speaker 1: I would suggest, respectfully, sir, is I saw a lot 76 00:05:10,720 --> 00:05:14,080 Speaker 1: of economists talking to each other at Jackson Hall. There's 77 00:05:14,080 --> 00:05:16,640 Speaker 1: a whole another system out there. When we look at 78 00:05:16,680 --> 00:05:20,040 Speaker 1: negative rates, when we look at tepid, subpar economic growth 79 00:05:20,040 --> 00:05:23,599 Speaker 1: and the productivity that you mentioned, I don't see the 80 00:05:23,640 --> 00:05:30,040 Speaker 1: economists addressing the dysfunction to the financial system within the 81 00:05:30,080 --> 00:05:33,240 Speaker 1: debate that you're having for September in December. Are you 82 00:05:33,400 --> 00:05:38,359 Speaker 1: sensitive and aware to global finance and global banking having 83 00:05:38,360 --> 00:05:42,920 Speaker 1: to deal with negative interest rates? Just as one example, Well, 84 00:05:43,480 --> 00:05:46,440 Speaker 1: we're sensitive to what's going on. One he has about it, 85 00:05:46,520 --> 00:05:49,400 Speaker 1: one he has and reads about and talks about what. 86 00:05:49,800 --> 00:05:52,840 Speaker 1: Look at their stock prices in Europe's happening in Japan 87 00:05:52,960 --> 00:05:57,279 Speaker 1: for instance. Um, yes, we take all that into account. 88 00:05:57,400 --> 00:06:00,360 Speaker 1: The United States is fortunate that when not in a 89 00:06:00,440 --> 00:06:04,600 Speaker 1: position where interest rates are negative, have to be negative. 90 00:06:05,440 --> 00:06:08,800 Speaker 1: And we're not planning to do anything in that direction, 91 00:06:08,920 --> 00:06:12,080 Speaker 1: but we certainly follow the debates and we certainly follow 92 00:06:12,160 --> 00:06:16,479 Speaker 1: the theory of negative interest rates within negative rates. I 93 00:06:16,520 --> 00:06:19,160 Speaker 1: spoke to you the Council on Foreign Relations in New 94 00:06:19,200 --> 00:06:22,039 Speaker 1: York pretty much when it was starting, and then we 95 00:06:22,080 --> 00:06:24,839 Speaker 1: had a conversation with you a number of months ago, 96 00:06:24,920 --> 00:06:26,719 Speaker 1: maybe it was half a year ago, I can't remember. 97 00:06:26,760 --> 00:06:29,440 Speaker 1: Now and here we are today. What have you learned 98 00:06:29,560 --> 00:06:32,960 Speaker 1: about negative rates in the crucible of the markets? What 99 00:06:33,000 --> 00:06:35,760 Speaker 1: have you learned in the last number of months. Well, 100 00:06:35,800 --> 00:06:39,520 Speaker 1: we've learned that the central banks which are implementing them, 101 00:06:39,640 --> 00:06:42,839 Speaker 1: there are four or five of them, basically think they're 102 00:06:42,920 --> 00:06:47,800 Speaker 1: quite successful and or staying with that approach, possibly with 103 00:06:47,839 --> 00:06:51,080 Speaker 1: the exception of Japan, although they're thinking it's through and 104 00:06:51,120 --> 00:06:55,200 Speaker 1: they have said they'll come back to try and make 105 00:06:55,480 --> 00:07:00,320 Speaker 1: negative rates work work better. So we're in a we're 106 00:07:00,320 --> 00:07:03,480 Speaker 1: in a world where they seem to work. I think 107 00:07:03,520 --> 00:07:07,040 Speaker 1: one of the most interesting developments I've seen in theory 108 00:07:07,760 --> 00:07:10,280 Speaker 1: is a paper that says, yes, they work up to 109 00:07:10,320 --> 00:07:14,280 Speaker 1: a certain point, and then they become counterproductive. Precisely, you 110 00:07:14,360 --> 00:07:16,880 Speaker 1: know that's a critical point. I mean, we have within 111 00:07:16,920 --> 00:07:19,840 Speaker 1: the interviews of Bloomberg, surveillance of Francine Loque, I have 112 00:07:20,240 --> 00:07:24,280 Speaker 1: had Olivier Blanchard calls them an outright scam. Granted he's 113 00:07:24,320 --> 00:07:27,280 Speaker 1: not a public official anymore. I understand that there is 114 00:07:27,360 --> 00:07:32,760 Speaker 1: a raging debate about the effocacy of negative interest rates 115 00:07:32,800 --> 00:07:36,920 Speaker 1: for central banks, for governments, and again for banking itself. 116 00:07:37,120 --> 00:07:41,000 Speaker 1: What about the efficacy of negative rates for savers and 117 00:07:41,040 --> 00:07:44,440 Speaker 1: the people of these different nations. Well, clearly there are 118 00:07:44,520 --> 00:07:48,640 Speaker 1: different responses to negative rates. If you're a saver, they're 119 00:07:48,760 --> 00:07:53,559 Speaker 1: very difficult to deal with and to to accept allow 120 00:07:53,640 --> 00:07:59,000 Speaker 1: typically they go along with quite decent equity prices. But 121 00:08:00,680 --> 00:08:03,840 Speaker 1: we consider all that and we have to make trade 122 00:08:03,880 --> 00:08:06,760 Speaker 1: offs in economics all the time, and the idea is 123 00:08:07,320 --> 00:08:11,720 Speaker 1: the lower the interest rate, the better it is for investors. 124 00:08:11,760 --> 00:08:16,720 Speaker 1: And that's where one of the great disappointments of the 125 00:08:17,240 --> 00:08:20,800 Speaker 1: reaction to very low interest rates is to be found. 126 00:08:20,920 --> 00:08:23,160 Speaker 1: I know that if I speak currency, everybody at the 127 00:08:23,200 --> 00:08:25,560 Speaker 1: photos serve stands up and says, you can't speak. That's 128 00:08:25,600 --> 00:08:29,080 Speaker 1: all tread carefully here within the currency dynamics and again 129 00:08:29,160 --> 00:08:32,640 Speaker 1: the heart the belief of going back to simpler models 130 00:08:32,840 --> 00:08:36,920 Speaker 1: and something like Moundel Fleming. We're living currency adjustments right 131 00:08:36,960 --> 00:08:40,480 Speaker 1: now that I would suggest President Tryche would call brutal 132 00:08:40,559 --> 00:08:44,320 Speaker 1: moves just looking at strong Yen, tell me about dollar 133 00:08:44,640 --> 00:08:49,160 Speaker 1: dynamics within greater macroeconomics. Now, we've had a great move 134 00:08:49,200 --> 00:08:52,360 Speaker 1: in the dollar. You've mentioned this within your asthment speech. 135 00:08:52,600 --> 00:08:58,480 Speaker 1: Can we withstand any more strong dollar moves? We're growing 136 00:08:58,480 --> 00:09:03,200 Speaker 1: it around two percent? Uh, And the problem we face 137 00:09:03,360 --> 00:09:06,640 Speaker 1: is that of productivity. I don't think that the dollar 138 00:09:06,800 --> 00:09:10,560 Speaker 1: is fundamentally the most important factor affecting the rate of 139 00:09:10,600 --> 00:09:16,199 Speaker 1: growth of productivity. Obviously, a stronger dollar has an impact 140 00:09:16,320 --> 00:09:21,720 Speaker 1: on the profitability of American companies and on how much 141 00:09:21,720 --> 00:09:25,400 Speaker 1: we want to import But the bottom line on this 142 00:09:25,559 --> 00:09:28,720 Speaker 1: is we have seen an appreciation of the dollar, and 143 00:09:28,760 --> 00:09:34,120 Speaker 1: the American economy continues at full employment, was moved towards 144 00:09:34,160 --> 00:09:38,560 Speaker 1: full employment, and so in in a fundamental sense, we've 145 00:09:38,600 --> 00:09:42,120 Speaker 1: withstood much of that challenge. It has had an impact 146 00:09:42,200 --> 00:09:49,240 Speaker 1: on inflation, reducing inflation, but we have to deal with 147 00:09:49,280 --> 00:09:53,600 Speaker 1: the world as it is. To final thoughts, Mr Simms, 148 00:09:53,640 --> 00:09:57,680 Speaker 1: Professor Sims of Princeton, was quite adamant about a greater 149 00:09:57,880 --> 00:10:03,200 Speaker 1: fiscal thrust. We're exhausted from nine years of monitors alone, 150 00:10:03,559 --> 00:10:07,600 Speaker 1: central bankers alone. How do you link the need for 151 00:10:07,720 --> 00:10:13,120 Speaker 1: fiscal policy into the actions you take in September and December. 152 00:10:13,160 --> 00:10:17,040 Speaker 1: The fiscal policy debate to me is two thousand seventeen 153 00:10:17,480 --> 00:10:20,200 Speaker 1: or even two thousand eighteen. It's really not part of 154 00:10:20,200 --> 00:10:23,840 Speaker 1: the calculus, now, is it. Well, it's very difficult to 155 00:10:23,880 --> 00:10:27,760 Speaker 1: take into account something with that much uncertainty. I'm sure 156 00:10:27,800 --> 00:10:31,079 Speaker 1: there will be changes in fiscal policy in two thousand 157 00:10:31,080 --> 00:10:35,280 Speaker 1: and seventeen or eighteen, as you suggest, but we don't 158 00:10:35,320 --> 00:10:37,679 Speaker 1: know what they will be, we don't know who will 159 00:10:37,720 --> 00:10:42,280 Speaker 1: implement them. So we get on with the world that 160 00:10:42,320 --> 00:10:44,640 Speaker 1: we see and with the data that come in and 161 00:10:44,679 --> 00:10:47,240 Speaker 1: with the data that we expect to come in. I've 162 00:10:47,240 --> 00:10:49,680 Speaker 1: tried to look forward here I need to look back. 163 00:10:49,920 --> 00:10:54,760 Speaker 1: What was the symbolism at Jackson Hole? The Worthies walk 164 00:10:54,840 --> 00:10:57,600 Speaker 1: out of the lodge and gaze at the elk in 165 00:10:57,679 --> 00:11:01,200 Speaker 1: the mountains. Usually it would beach are yelling. Was some 166 00:11:01,360 --> 00:11:06,240 Speaker 1: foreign dignitary? This time around, she's surrounded by Dudley and Fisher. 167 00:11:06,480 --> 00:11:09,600 Speaker 1: What was the symbolism of New York the vice chairman 168 00:11:09,840 --> 00:11:14,400 Speaker 1: propping up the chair. I don't think we were propping 169 00:11:14,480 --> 00:11:16,720 Speaker 1: up the chair. It's a pleasure to work with a chair, 170 00:11:17,480 --> 00:11:21,599 Speaker 1: but propping up is not something she was shown that 171 00:11:21,679 --> 00:11:24,760 Speaker 1: everybody's on the same page. I don't know what it 172 00:11:24,840 --> 00:11:28,080 Speaker 1: was about. I was. I was asked if I'd like 173 00:11:28,200 --> 00:11:31,880 Speaker 1: to go out and see the the scenery, and I 174 00:11:30,880 --> 00:11:33,880 Speaker 1: suddenly enjoyed it. I was in the middle of a 175 00:11:33,920 --> 00:11:36,320 Speaker 1: cup of coffee and I was allowed to take it 176 00:11:36,360 --> 00:11:40,880 Speaker 1: out with me. That's important and so so it was fine, 177 00:11:41,040 --> 00:11:45,280 Speaker 1: and I think it sent a message that some of 178 00:11:45,280 --> 00:11:49,640 Speaker 1: the that the people within the system are thinking and 179 00:11:50,200 --> 00:11:53,560 Speaker 1: along similar lines, Mr Vice Chairman, thank you so much. 180 00:11:53,600 --> 00:11:56,480 Speaker 1: Stanley Fisher, as the vice chairman of the Fellows, are 181 00:11:58,720 --> 00:12:02,720 Speaker 1: who you put your trust matters. Investors have put their 182 00:12:02,760 --> 00:12:06,120 Speaker 1: trust in independent registered investment advisors to the tune of 183 00:12:06,200 --> 00:12:11,040 Speaker 1: four trillion dollars. Why they see their role is to serve, 184 00:12:11,520 --> 00:12:14,760 Speaker 1: not sell. That's why Charles Schwab is committed to the 185 00:12:14,800 --> 00:12:19,479 Speaker 1: success of over seven thousand independent financial advisors who passionately 186 00:12:19,520 --> 00:12:23,920 Speaker 1: dedicate themselves to helping people achieve their financial goals. Learn 187 00:12:23,960 --> 00:12:32,680 Speaker 1: more and find your independent advisor dot com. Adam posing 188 00:12:32,760 --> 00:12:38,400 Speaker 1: continues with us giving us wonderful perspective before the conversation 189 00:12:38,440 --> 00:12:42,760 Speaker 1: with the vice chairman um Dr Posen. When I look 190 00:12:42,800 --> 00:12:46,080 Speaker 1: at the beginning of that interview, I think a lot 191 00:12:46,280 --> 00:12:50,680 Speaker 1: of simplistic analysis. It's done on the ease of doing 192 00:12:51,160 --> 00:12:55,400 Speaker 1: one and done and grizzled prose and policymakers. Let you go. 193 00:12:56,160 --> 00:12:59,840 Speaker 1: It's not that easy. The vice chairman clearly alluded to that, 194 00:13:00,120 --> 00:13:02,600 Speaker 1: he did, Tom, but your interview was great and you 195 00:13:02,679 --> 00:13:06,560 Speaker 1: got he was saying. I think two things with that message. First, 196 00:13:06,800 --> 00:13:09,720 Speaker 1: literally signaling to the markets that he doesn't rule out 197 00:13:09,840 --> 00:13:12,920 Speaker 1: to hikes before the end of the year. I'm not 198 00:13:12,960 --> 00:13:14,920 Speaker 1: sure it's a good idea, but he's making it clear 199 00:13:15,000 --> 00:13:17,960 Speaker 1: that that's on the table in his view. But secondly, 200 00:13:17,960 --> 00:13:19,880 Speaker 1: what you're saying that there's never going to be a 201 00:13:19,880 --> 00:13:22,959 Speaker 1: commitment to do nothing, that the FED has to constantly 202 00:13:22,960 --> 00:13:26,160 Speaker 1: be on guard, has to be reactive, in fact, ideally 203 00:13:26,240 --> 00:13:32,040 Speaker 1: forward looking. Within forward looking is this scary phrase exogenous shocks, 204 00:13:32,160 --> 00:13:36,720 Speaker 1: which is where guys like you get hit blindsided by policy. 205 00:13:36,840 --> 00:13:42,000 Speaker 1: Every policymaker is aware of the exogenous shocks. Are we 206 00:13:42,040 --> 00:13:46,120 Speaker 1: more susceptible to more exogenous shocks now because of the 207 00:13:46,160 --> 00:13:50,520 Speaker 1: weakness of global GDP? I think that's overdone. Uh. There 208 00:13:50,640 --> 00:13:54,800 Speaker 1: is this notion of stall speed, uh, that if you're 209 00:13:54,840 --> 00:13:57,360 Speaker 1: not moving far enough fast enough, you can get taken 210 00:13:57,400 --> 00:13:59,840 Speaker 1: down more easily. I don't think there's any statistical evidence 211 00:13:59,840 --> 00:14:03,360 Speaker 1: for that. What is worrying in terms of exogenous shocks 212 00:14:04,000 --> 00:14:06,840 Speaker 1: is the fact that there's less room for monetary policy 213 00:14:06,840 --> 00:14:09,600 Speaker 1: reaction that we had in two thousand eight, two thousand nine, 214 00:14:09,920 --> 00:14:12,640 Speaker 1: and there seems to be less Appy's still less appetite 215 00:14:12,640 --> 00:14:15,320 Speaker 1: for fiscal policy than we need, as was Erisi said 216 00:14:15,360 --> 00:14:17,839 Speaker 1: Jackson home the David, I want you to jumping here, 217 00:14:17,840 --> 00:14:20,240 Speaker 1: but let me close the loop on this. There's an 218 00:14:20,240 --> 00:14:22,960 Speaker 1: immediacy here to do something fiscal. Do you see any 219 00:14:23,000 --> 00:14:26,200 Speaker 1: indication and he will get done I don't. Japan is 220 00:14:26,240 --> 00:14:28,720 Speaker 1: doing it, Canada is doing it, There's a good chance 221 00:14:28,760 --> 00:14:31,720 Speaker 1: the UK will do it in October, and then I 222 00:14:31,760 --> 00:14:35,040 Speaker 1: think actually people are underpricing no matter who wins the election, 223 00:14:35,480 --> 00:14:38,000 Speaker 1: the likelihood we're going to actually get fiscal stimulus in 224 00:14:38,000 --> 00:14:40,760 Speaker 1: the US. David Garrol jump in place. Yeah, you know, Adam, 225 00:14:40,800 --> 00:14:43,040 Speaker 1: I want to get your thoughts on that conversation about 226 00:14:43,080 --> 00:14:46,440 Speaker 1: negative rates. Stand Fisher telling Tom we follow the theory 227 00:14:46,480 --> 00:14:48,640 Speaker 1: of negative interest rates. I think he said, we're not 228 00:14:48,720 --> 00:14:52,200 Speaker 1: planning to do anything in that direction. In the context 229 00:14:52,240 --> 00:14:54,800 Speaker 1: of the conversation he and Tom we're having about the 230 00:14:55,200 --> 00:14:58,280 Speaker 1: role of the FED in the global economy, how closely 231 00:14:58,280 --> 00:15:00,280 Speaker 1: he pays attention to what's happening to other central banks. 232 00:15:00,320 --> 00:15:01,320 Speaker 1: What did you make of what he had to say 233 00:15:01,320 --> 00:15:04,640 Speaker 1: about negative rates today, Well, David, I actually took a 234 00:15:04,680 --> 00:15:07,520 Speaker 1: slightly different spin from it. I thought his point He 235 00:15:07,600 --> 00:15:11,200 Speaker 1: did say exactly the quote you said, obviously, but he 236 00:15:11,440 --> 00:15:16,520 Speaker 1: was talking mostly saying rightly that as representative Jackson Hole, 237 00:15:16,600 --> 00:15:18,720 Speaker 1: there were four central banks of the five that are 238 00:15:18,760 --> 00:15:21,880 Speaker 1: doing negative rates, and they all moved in the Bank 239 00:15:21,920 --> 00:15:26,000 Speaker 1: of Japan feel they're largely working as expected, So saying 240 00:15:26,040 --> 00:15:27,800 Speaker 1: that the FED isn't looking to do that is the 241 00:15:27,840 --> 00:15:30,240 Speaker 1: same as saying the FED isn't looking to cut rates 242 00:15:30,320 --> 00:15:33,280 Speaker 1: right now. But it was actually I thought more of 243 00:15:33,320 --> 00:15:36,680 Speaker 1: a balanced endorsement looking globally at negative rates, and then 244 00:15:36,880 --> 00:15:39,680 Speaker 1: combined with that, he didn't He professed not to worry 245 00:15:39,760 --> 00:15:42,680 Speaker 1: much about the dollar, which WHI also suggests he's not 246 00:15:42,680 --> 00:15:44,920 Speaker 1: worried about negative rates in other countries. Yeah, he said, 247 00:15:44,960 --> 00:15:47,080 Speaker 1: I I don't think the dollar is the most important 248 00:15:47,080 --> 00:15:49,880 Speaker 1: factor affecting the rate of growth and productivity. He brought 249 00:15:49,920 --> 00:15:52,840 Speaker 1: up technology, which he acknowledged isn't reflected in the data 250 00:15:52,960 --> 00:15:55,040 Speaker 1: right now as you see it. How how important is 251 00:15:55,040 --> 00:15:57,040 Speaker 1: that strengthening dollar. Do you have any disagreement with him 252 00:15:57,040 --> 00:15:59,240 Speaker 1: there about the the importance of the role of the 253 00:15:59,280 --> 00:16:03,000 Speaker 1: strengthening dollar around the economy right now on right now? 254 00:16:03,040 --> 00:16:04,880 Speaker 1: I probably have a bit of a difference. I think 255 00:16:04,920 --> 00:16:07,160 Speaker 1: the dollar has gone up quite a bit, and except 256 00:16:07,160 --> 00:16:10,320 Speaker 1: for the end uh and even there has gone up 257 00:16:10,360 --> 00:16:13,160 Speaker 1: more than other economies. The US can take it, but 258 00:16:13,720 --> 00:16:17,160 Speaker 1: it's not entirely clear that the U s should take 259 00:16:17,200 --> 00:16:19,440 Speaker 1: all of it the way we did at various times 260 00:16:19,480 --> 00:16:22,800 Speaker 1: in the past. But the broader point that the dollar 261 00:16:22,880 --> 00:16:27,400 Speaker 1: should not be a substitute for monditary policy, and that 262 00:16:27,480 --> 00:16:30,440 Speaker 1: the US can withstand dollar movements better than most countries. 263 00:16:30,480 --> 00:16:32,480 Speaker 1: I think he's right, obviously. One of the things I 264 00:16:32,520 --> 00:16:35,240 Speaker 1: got in imposted was the was the idea of the 265 00:16:35,360 --> 00:16:37,880 Speaker 1: US standing alone. I mean, you see that when you 266 00:16:37,920 --> 00:16:41,640 Speaker 1: speak to the Vice German about how discreet we are 267 00:16:41,960 --> 00:16:46,080 Speaker 1: within our policy making versuss every other central bank, the 268 00:16:46,120 --> 00:16:48,920 Speaker 1: aloneness is remarkable. Yeah, you you you got that out 269 00:16:48,960 --> 00:16:51,320 Speaker 1: of him in the interview Tom, it was clear that he, 270 00:16:51,480 --> 00:16:54,880 Speaker 1: you know, he said, obviously the ECB has economics own 271 00:16:54,920 --> 00:16:56,960 Speaker 1: as big as ours, but now that the FED still 272 00:16:57,080 --> 00:17:01,200 Speaker 1: has a degree of autonomy that goes with the faith 273 00:17:01,240 --> 00:17:03,480 Speaker 1: in the dollar, and it goes with the fact that 274 00:17:03,520 --> 00:17:05,760 Speaker 1: the U s economy is still stronger and bigger than 275 00:17:05,800 --> 00:17:08,320 Speaker 1: anybody else. He added, though, that you know, what they 276 00:17:08,320 --> 00:17:11,439 Speaker 1: do also affects US. I was particularly taken by Tom's 277 00:17:11,480 --> 00:17:15,639 Speaker 1: question about his awareness of how what he does, what 278 00:17:15,720 --> 00:17:19,480 Speaker 1: the FOMC does, affects folks in the markets. Tom, noting 279 00:17:19,520 --> 00:17:21,199 Speaker 1: that we've just come on the heels of a conference 280 00:17:21,200 --> 00:17:25,239 Speaker 1: in Jackson Hole populated almost entirely by academic economists and 281 00:17:25,240 --> 00:17:28,320 Speaker 1: professional central bankers, what did you make of what he 282 00:17:28,359 --> 00:17:30,560 Speaker 1: had to say about the degree to which he's watching 283 00:17:30,640 --> 00:17:33,639 Speaker 1: market reaction, thinking about market reaction, thinking about how this 284 00:17:33,720 --> 00:17:37,800 Speaker 1: affects UM investors. Yes, but also savers. Well, I think 285 00:17:38,080 --> 00:17:41,040 Speaker 1: in all these things and I should not pretend to 286 00:17:41,119 --> 00:17:44,080 Speaker 1: project into the Vice chair's head or intentions. I don't know. 287 00:17:44,240 --> 00:17:46,159 Speaker 1: Only we could write in order, well, it's not my 288 00:17:46,240 --> 00:17:49,040 Speaker 1: place to do so, no one should um. But just 289 00:17:49,119 --> 00:17:51,640 Speaker 1: speaking from my experience at Bank of England, you always 290 00:17:51,680 --> 00:17:55,160 Speaker 1: have people who are savers who are saying, oh, you're 291 00:17:55,240 --> 00:17:57,680 Speaker 1: hurting us because you're doing X, or you have people 292 00:17:57,680 --> 00:18:00,040 Speaker 1: saying I'm an exporter and you're hurting us because the 293 00:18:00,080 --> 00:18:02,639 Speaker 1: dollars going up. There's always going to be that, and 294 00:18:02,680 --> 00:18:07,040 Speaker 1: it's important for central bankers to acknowledge the legitimacy of 295 00:18:07,200 --> 00:18:09,840 Speaker 1: citizens and democracy saying I don't like this. At the 296 00:18:09,880 --> 00:18:12,200 Speaker 1: same time, the whole point of having an independent central 297 00:18:12,200 --> 00:18:15,120 Speaker 1: bank is that they don't have to listen to that, 298 00:18:15,640 --> 00:18:18,439 Speaker 1: and I think the Vice chair was quite reasonable and 299 00:18:18,520 --> 00:18:22,679 Speaker 1: quite clear in suggesting that that should not be the 300 00:18:22,720 --> 00:18:26,119 Speaker 1: constraint on whether or not you do a policy. I 301 00:18:26,200 --> 00:18:31,480 Speaker 1: look at him the step forward here and the September meeting. 302 00:18:31,640 --> 00:18:35,200 Speaker 1: The markets certainly are miles apart from central bankers looking 303 00:18:35,240 --> 00:18:38,359 Speaker 1: at the dots, Yeah, looking at dots. Go at the 304 00:18:38,400 --> 00:18:42,520 Speaker 1: September meeting, would you assume a recalibration of FED dot 305 00:18:42,640 --> 00:18:47,040 Speaker 1: guestimates lower? I do we just wait? I think we've 306 00:18:47,119 --> 00:18:48,679 Speaker 1: you and I've talked about this before. Tom. I've been 307 00:18:48,720 --> 00:18:51,720 Speaker 1: saying for several years now the dots should be ignored. 308 00:18:51,920 --> 00:18:55,400 Speaker 1: And if you go to chair yelling speech in Jackson 309 00:18:55,440 --> 00:18:59,040 Speaker 1: Hall on Friday, she threw up that chart saying, Okay, 310 00:18:59,080 --> 00:19:02,520 Speaker 1: here's the rain of what interest rates would be given 311 00:19:03,200 --> 00:19:07,040 Speaker 1: the situation. And uh, it was a three basis point 312 00:19:07,160 --> 00:19:11,680 Speaker 1: plus range. So stop worrying about the dots. Your broader implication, 313 00:19:11,760 --> 00:19:14,760 Speaker 1: your broader question is right. Do we see a convergence 314 00:19:14,800 --> 00:19:20,520 Speaker 1: between markets and the Fed? I think on the narrow 315 00:19:20,600 --> 00:19:24,720 Speaker 1: issue of whether the rates go up in September December, 316 00:19:24,760 --> 00:19:26,240 Speaker 1: I don't think there is going to be one. I 317 00:19:26,240 --> 00:19:29,120 Speaker 1: think understandably there's going to continue to be uncertainty. Can 318 00:19:29,160 --> 00:19:31,000 Speaker 1: I ask you, David? Am I allowed to ask one 319 00:19:33,119 --> 00:19:35,720 Speaker 1: how ladies and gentlemen worldwide the dumb question of the 320 00:19:35,800 --> 00:19:39,520 Speaker 1: day doctor pose and what actually happens if they raise 321 00:19:39,680 --> 00:19:44,000 Speaker 1: rates in September? Markets fall apart? I don't buy it. No, 322 00:19:44,080 --> 00:19:46,360 Speaker 1: I don't buy it either, Tom. I don't think it's 323 00:19:46,400 --> 00:19:49,160 Speaker 1: the dumb question. I think it's the big question. Why 324 00:19:49,680 --> 00:19:52,800 Speaker 1: is the FEDS so intent right now? Not just Vice 325 00:19:52,880 --> 00:19:57,400 Speaker 1: chair Fisher on trying to telegraph September versus December? If 326 00:19:57,440 --> 00:19:59,760 Speaker 1: the U s economy is on a recovery path, if 327 00:19:59,760 --> 00:20:02,720 Speaker 1: the this economy is still strong, and if they think 328 00:20:02,720 --> 00:20:05,119 Speaker 1: inflation is going up, I don't know why anybody cares 329 00:20:05,200 --> 00:20:08,320 Speaker 1: that much. I mean, David worst cases yen goes you know, 330 00:20:08,480 --> 00:20:14,000 Speaker 1: yen goes up? Downside Me, yeah, I mean I've been 331 00:20:14,040 --> 00:20:18,320 Speaker 1: reading similarly, so I I uh I with Dr Foss 332 00:20:18,359 --> 00:20:21,600 Speaker 1: for sure. Adam posing has been a saint today, truan 333 00:20:22,160 --> 00:20:24,800 Speaker 1: on the edge of saint with a Peterson Institute giving 334 00:20:24,880 --> 00:20:29,360 Speaker 1: us perspective here, Adam, I want to move away from 335 00:20:29,359 --> 00:20:32,760 Speaker 1: the conversation with the Vice chairman and talk about descent. 336 00:20:32,920 --> 00:20:36,359 Speaker 1: You live descent at the Bank of England. I thought 337 00:20:36,400 --> 00:20:39,399 Speaker 1: Mike McKee's interview with Esther George, the great dissenter of 338 00:20:39,480 --> 00:20:45,280 Speaker 1: Kansas City was absolutely fantastic about her criticism. But her 339 00:20:45,320 --> 00:20:51,480 Speaker 1: criticism is extremely respectful of FED consensus. Is our descent 340 00:20:51,800 --> 00:20:56,040 Speaker 1: like Carney's descent? No, Um Tom, and thanks so much 341 00:20:56,080 --> 00:20:57,960 Speaker 1: for having me this morning. So much to talk about. 342 00:20:58,280 --> 00:21:01,040 Speaker 1: I agree Mike's interview with President and George was spot 343 00:21:01,080 --> 00:21:02,920 Speaker 1: on a great way to set up the FED FED 344 00:21:03,000 --> 00:21:07,600 Speaker 1: Kansas City conference. Uh, it is important to have the 345 00:21:07,720 --> 00:21:11,320 Speaker 1: respectful tone. It's important not to be randomly shooting your 346 00:21:11,359 --> 00:21:15,040 Speaker 1: mouth off every time. It's important to be consistent and 347 00:21:15,160 --> 00:21:17,199 Speaker 1: just as in real life, although you have to do 348 00:21:17,240 --> 00:21:20,679 Speaker 1: it more publicly, it's important to say what your assumptions 349 00:21:20,680 --> 00:21:23,040 Speaker 1: are and how you might be proven wrong. And I 350 00:21:23,160 --> 00:21:26,960 Speaker 1: give Prisident, George and others some credit wherein they've been 351 00:21:27,040 --> 00:21:31,159 Speaker 1: clear about that. There was a few meetings back, Adam 352 00:21:31,320 --> 00:21:34,560 Speaker 1: some some unanimity among the Fed, and we talked about 353 00:21:34,880 --> 00:21:37,879 Speaker 1: the importance of that of Janet Yellen's ability to cultivate 354 00:21:37,880 --> 00:21:41,920 Speaker 1: the support of the the entire committee. Would she prefer 355 00:21:41,960 --> 00:21:44,560 Speaker 1: it to be that way? What's the role of that descent? 356 00:21:45,160 --> 00:21:47,800 Speaker 1: I imagine it creates a more robust discussion in the 357 00:21:47,920 --> 00:21:51,560 Speaker 1: in the the regular meetings there. But how important is 358 00:21:51,640 --> 00:21:55,040 Speaker 1: unanimity to her going forward? I don't think unanimity is 359 00:21:55,160 --> 00:21:58,840 Speaker 1: that important, David. I think what is important, going back 360 00:21:58,880 --> 00:22:02,760 Speaker 1: to what Tom said and Mike's interview is that any 361 00:22:02,840 --> 00:22:07,040 Speaker 1: descent is data based or or explicitly theory based. You know, 362 00:22:07,080 --> 00:22:10,639 Speaker 1: you can say I'm worried about financial stability risks from 363 00:22:10,720 --> 00:22:14,080 Speaker 1: zero rights saying, but it's clearly expressed, it's on substance, 364 00:22:14,119 --> 00:22:18,080 Speaker 1: it's not about style, and that it's not constantly communicated. 365 00:22:18,160 --> 00:22:22,840 Speaker 1: I mean, I think Yelling's chairs concerned is but I 366 00:22:22,880 --> 00:22:26,840 Speaker 1: think should be more about too many people talking too often, 367 00:22:27,320 --> 00:22:29,399 Speaker 1: and not so much the fact of descent. If you 368 00:22:29,520 --> 00:22:32,720 Speaker 1: had clear communications and you had a bunch of votes 369 00:22:32,760 --> 00:22:34,439 Speaker 1: where you had two or three descents, that would not 370 00:22:34,480 --> 00:22:35,919 Speaker 1: be the end of the world, and that would probably 371 00:22:35,920 --> 00:22:38,040 Speaker 1: be better than some of the things that have gone on. 372 00:22:38,600 --> 00:22:42,199 Speaker 1: I look U dr pos and this valet and of 373 00:22:42,240 --> 00:22:45,639 Speaker 1: course we're down to micro analyzing consonants and vowels and 374 00:22:47,000 --> 00:22:49,320 Speaker 1: of all this. How did we get in this mess 375 00:22:49,359 --> 00:22:52,399 Speaker 1: of micro analysis of your world? It was a similar 376 00:22:52,520 --> 00:22:56,760 Speaker 1: time with Arthur Burns. Has that a better time? No? Um, 377 00:22:56,920 --> 00:23:00,080 Speaker 1: absolutely not, Tom. I mean I think Burns and in 378 00:23:00,200 --> 00:23:03,320 Speaker 1: Lake Greenspan both show that there are problems when you 379 00:23:03,400 --> 00:23:06,119 Speaker 1: have too much faith in the chair. The chair doesn't 380 00:23:06,160 --> 00:23:09,520 Speaker 1: get challenged, the chair doesn't have enough to scent around 381 00:23:09,560 --> 00:23:13,320 Speaker 1: them and enough communication. Um, so no, those were not 382 00:23:13,400 --> 00:23:16,520 Speaker 1: deer times. Then to move it back yesterday John Taylor 383 00:23:16,560 --> 00:23:19,040 Speaker 1: of Stanford on it I just a claring call. We 384 00:23:19,119 --> 00:23:24,280 Speaker 1: know the Stanford the Taylor call for a tilt towards rules. 385 00:23:24,400 --> 00:23:27,600 Speaker 1: Maybe not New Zealand rules because we're not New Zealand, 386 00:23:28,119 --> 00:23:33,200 Speaker 1: but is there a place for a tailor FED. I 387 00:23:33,280 --> 00:23:37,160 Speaker 1: continue to disagree with that view, I think, and we've 388 00:23:37,200 --> 00:23:40,600 Speaker 1: had this debate across the profession for a long time. 389 00:23:41,200 --> 00:23:44,919 Speaker 1: There needs to be some discipline, There needs to be 390 00:23:45,000 --> 00:23:48,720 Speaker 1: some benchmarks, some accountability for the FED and other central banks. 391 00:23:48,760 --> 00:23:51,640 Speaker 1: There needs to be a clear statement of strategy and goals. 392 00:23:51,680 --> 00:23:54,440 Speaker 1: But what is being called for in rules, if you 393 00:23:54,520 --> 00:23:57,200 Speaker 1: try to do it in practice, would lead to things 394 00:23:57,280 --> 00:24:00,359 Speaker 1: like what the e c B did to Southern Europe, 395 00:24:00,480 --> 00:24:03,159 Speaker 1: would lead to things like what the fed's mistake in 396 00:24:03,280 --> 00:24:07,119 Speaker 1: thirty three UM would lead to things like the mistaken 397 00:24:07,200 --> 00:24:11,000 Speaker 1: rate hikes in Bank of Japan and ECB in recent years. This, 398 00:24:11,680 --> 00:24:16,399 Speaker 1: what they're calling rules is not rules. It's a stiff, 399 00:24:16,960 --> 00:24:20,879 Speaker 1: single minded putting away of the Feds are not ability 400 00:24:20,920 --> 00:24:24,120 Speaker 1: to the real economy, and it's an inflexibility you don't 401 00:24:24,119 --> 00:24:26,760 Speaker 1: need because, as Somers is pointing out, it's all of 402 00:24:26,840 --> 00:24:31,080 Speaker 1: us have pointed out you're not seeing spiraling inflation expectations. 403 00:24:31,119 --> 00:24:34,560 Speaker 1: So it's the wrong prescription. It's a theoretically nice thing, 404 00:24:34,640 --> 00:24:37,199 Speaker 1: but in practice it's a very bad call. Before we go, 405 00:24:37,240 --> 00:24:38,960 Speaker 1: tell me, I got to bring up your your final 406 00:24:39,040 --> 00:24:41,400 Speaker 1: question to to stand Fisher on the heels of what 407 00:24:41,440 --> 00:24:44,640 Speaker 1: Peter Cooper of Deutsche Bank said yesterday, which was notice 408 00:24:44,680 --> 00:24:48,040 Speaker 1: the imagery noticed the picture of stand Fisher deadly and 409 00:24:48,160 --> 00:24:50,840 Speaker 1: yelling at Jackson Hole looking at the Elka, as you said, 410 00:24:50,880 --> 00:24:53,639 Speaker 1: and I thought it was just such an interesting glimpse 411 00:24:53,720 --> 00:24:56,560 Speaker 1: at stand Fishery sense of himself in the FED. You know, 412 00:24:56,600 --> 00:24:58,239 Speaker 1: he tried to play it off initially. At first all 413 00:24:58,280 --> 00:25:00,200 Speaker 1: I just was invited out, got a cup of feine, 414 00:25:00,240 --> 00:25:02,240 Speaker 1: went outside them. By the end he was saying, you know, 415 00:25:02,280 --> 00:25:04,880 Speaker 1: the goal there was perhaps to to project some unimity, 416 00:25:04,920 --> 00:25:06,680 Speaker 1: to to to show that people within the system you're 417 00:25:06,680 --> 00:25:09,480 Speaker 1: thinking along similar lines. I thought that was fantastic. Is 418 00:25:09,520 --> 00:25:15,000 Speaker 1: the unanimity there, doctor poses, there's unity, unanimity, unity, and 419 00:25:15,200 --> 00:25:17,439 Speaker 1: in the core and the leadership, half the letters are 420 00:25:17,440 --> 00:25:19,920 Speaker 1: there and half are there, and and for government work, 421 00:25:19,960 --> 00:25:22,320 Speaker 1: that's pretty good. There you go, Adam posing me, thank 422 00:25:22,320 --> 00:25:26,040 Speaker 1: you you start your day in Washington. Thanks for listening 423 00:25:26,240 --> 00:25:30,680 Speaker 1: to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Subscribe and listen to interviews 424 00:25:30,760 --> 00:25:36,120 Speaker 1: on iTunes, SoundCloud, or whichever podcast platform you prefer. I'm 425 00:25:36,160 --> 00:25:40,119 Speaker 1: on Twitter at Tom Keane, Michael McKee is at Economy 426 00:25:40,560 --> 00:25:44,280 Speaker 1: Before the podcast, you can always catch us worldwide. I'm 427 00:25:44,320 --> 00:25:55,160 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio. Who you put your trust in matters. Investors 428 00:25:55,240 --> 00:25:58,560 Speaker 1: have put their trust in independent registered investment advisors to 429 00:25:58,640 --> 00:26:03,040 Speaker 1: the tune of four trillion dollars. Why learn more and 430 00:26:03,240 --> 00:26:07,240 Speaker 1: find your independent advisor dot com m