WEBVTT - Traders Follow Political Uncertainty; Americans Lament Trump-Biden Rematch

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News.

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<v Speaker 2>Good morning.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm John Tucker and I'm Karen Moscow. Here are the

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<v Speaker 1>stories we're following today.

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<v Speaker 2>Karen, we begin overseas where traders are following the political

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<v Speaker 2>landscape in France. City Group strategists downgraded the region to

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<v Speaker 2>neutral from overweight, citing risks of extreme parties gaining ground

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<v Speaker 2>in the upcoming parliamentary elections, and Bloomberg's Ewan Pots joins

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<v Speaker 2>us for the latest on what's happening in Europe. You

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<v Speaker 2>and good morning, John and Karen.

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<v Speaker 3>European stocks fairly flat this morning after in Vester's flocked

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<v Speaker 3>to haven assets at the end of last week. Political

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<v Speaker 3>volatility in France very much in focus, with latest polls

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<v Speaker 3>putting President at Manual Macron's party in third place out

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<v Speaker 3>of upcoming elections to the French Parliament. The party of

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<v Speaker 3>far right leader Marine Le penn currently has a polling lead,

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<v Speaker 3>with a left wing coalition in second place. They presented

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<v Speaker 3>plans to pick apart most of Macron's seven years of

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<v Speaker 3>economic reforms and set France on a collision course with

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<v Speaker 3>the European Union over fiscal policy. The first round of

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<v Speaker 3>voting takes place in just under two weeks time. In London,

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<v Speaker 3>immune potsplinback radio all.

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<v Speaker 1>Right you and Thanks, and the political upheaval in France

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<v Speaker 1>has led Paris to lose its title as Europe's largest

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<v Speaker 1>equity market. Billions of dollars are wiped off the market

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<v Speaker 1>cap of French firms after Emmanuel mccron called the surprise

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<v Speaker 1>snap election. Stocks in the country are now collectively worth

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<v Speaker 1>about three point one three trillion dollars, narrowly behind London's

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<v Speaker 1>three point one eight trillion. The CATC forty index has

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<v Speaker 1>erased all its gains for twenty twenty four.

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<v Speaker 2>And meanwhile, in the UK, Richie Sunac's Conservatives headed for

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<v Speaker 2>a wipeout in the July fourth general election. At least

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<v Speaker 2>that's according to new polling data. Servation survey sees the

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<v Speaker 2>Tories getting only seventy two seats, which would be their

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<v Speaker 2>worst election performance in two centuries. One of the reasons

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<v Speaker 2>for their slide in the polls has been the emergence

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<v Speaker 2>of the right wing Reform UK led by Nigel Farage,

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<v Speaker 2>the party launching its manifesto today well John.

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<v Speaker 1>As the political turmoil continues in Europe, new data show

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<v Speaker 1>the US mopped up almost one third of all the

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<v Speaker 1>global investment flows since COVID analysis by the International Monetary

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<v Speaker 1>Fund shows that the US's share of financial flows has

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<v Speaker 1>climbed with higher interest rates of major draw for overseas investors.

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<v Speaker 1>The pre pandemic US average share was just eighteen percent.

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<v Speaker 1>The US also pulled in a fresh wave of foreign

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<v Speaker 1>direct investment. However, FED rate policy and the presidential election

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<v Speaker 1>could affect the fiscal deficit.

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<v Speaker 2>And Karen the Markets Now Trader is going to be

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<v Speaker 2>digesting a lot of FED speak this week following last

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<v Speaker 2>week's CPI reading and FED decision. We're going to hear

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<v Speaker 2>from the New York FED President John Williams today as

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<v Speaker 2>well as Patrick Carker or Philadelphia and fedkevinor Lisa Cook.

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<v Speaker 2>Later this week, we'll hear from the Dallas FED President

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<v Speaker 2>Lorie Logan and the Chicago FED President Austin Goolsby. Over

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<v Speaker 2>the weekend, Minneapolis FED President Neil kesh Carey said on

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<v Speaker 2>CBS has faced the nation that rate cuts are still

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<v Speaker 2>a ways away.

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<v Speaker 4>We're in a very good position right now to take

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<v Speaker 4>our time, get more inflation data, get more data on

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<v Speaker 4>the economy, on the labor market, before we have to

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<v Speaker 4>make any decisions. So we're in a strong position. But

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<v Speaker 4>if you just said there's going to be one cut,

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<v Speaker 4>which is what the mediaan indicated that would likely be

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<v Speaker 4>toward the end of the year.

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<v Speaker 3>Well John.

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<v Speaker 1>Minneapolis FED President Neil Kashgari's comments are echoed by Cleveland

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<v Speaker 1>FED President Loreddamester, who spoke with our Michael McKee. Mester

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<v Speaker 1>says monetary policy is well positioned to ensure that inflation

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<v Speaker 1>moves back down to two percent over time.

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<v Speaker 5>It's going to take some time to get inflation back

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<v Speaker 5>to two percent all the way back. So my projection

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<v Speaker 5>is that we probably won't get there until twenty twenty six,

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<v Speaker 5>but we'll see progress continue in my modal view, and

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<v Speaker 5>that's enough right to then say, okay, it's time to

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<v Speaker 5>start the process of bringing rates down.

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<v Speaker 1>Cleveland FED president the REDDA Master says the central bank

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<v Speaker 1>is in a comfortable position to address inflation if data

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<v Speaker 1>comes in hotter than expected, or to address any potential

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<v Speaker 1>disinflationary trends that emerge.

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<v Speaker 2>And moving to politics now, with the November presidential election approaching,

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<v Speaker 2>the ranks of double hater voters have hit an all

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<v Speaker 2>time high. This according to new analysis from Pew Research,

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<v Speaker 2>double haters make up one quarter of the electorate. That's

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<v Speaker 2>nearly twice as many as at this point in twenty twenty.

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<v Speaker 2>Double haters are disaffected voters who say they don't like

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<v Speaker 2>either major party presidential candidate. Biden and Trump are taking

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<v Speaker 2>roughly equal measures of these voters in battleground states, with

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<v Speaker 2>a May Bloomberg News Morning Console pull showing President Biden

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<v Speaker 2>winning twenty five percent to Trump's twenty two percent.

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<v Speaker 1>Well John, As Donald Trump looks to return to the

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<v Speaker 1>White House, he's proposing a new idea of using tariff

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<v Speaker 1>hikes as a way to pay for some income tax cuts.

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<v Speaker 1>Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers blasted Trump's plan, saying it'd

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<v Speaker 1>be damn imaging to both the US and the global economy.

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<v Speaker 1>Summers tells Bloomberg that Trump's plan to use tariffs in

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<v Speaker 1>his way is a quote prescription for the mother of

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<v Speaker 1>all stagflations.

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<v Speaker 4>Look, I don't think there's been a more inflationary.

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<v Speaker 3>Presidential economic policy platform in my lifetime.

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<v Speaker 1>And asked about Larry Summer's criticisms, a Trump campaign spokesperson said, quote,

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<v Speaker 1>Americans can expect President Trump's second term economic agenda will

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<v Speaker 1>end at Joe Biden's inflation crisis that continues to rob

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<v Speaker 1>working families of thousands of dollars every month.

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<v Speaker 2>Oils slipped following mixed economic data out of China, and

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<v Speaker 2>the pullback and oil came as the Biden administration reportedly

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<v Speaker 2>is ready to reopen the US stockpile. Prices jump in

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<v Speaker 2>the summer months ahead. Amos Hawkstain, the President Biden's closest

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<v Speaker 2>advisor on energy, telling the Financial Times the administration will

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<v Speaker 2>do everything it can to make sure the market is

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<v Speaker 2>supplied well enough to ensure low prices as low prices

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<v Speaker 2>as possible for American consumers, which includes releasing more oil

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<v Speaker 2>from these strategic petroleum reserves. He says he believes there's

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<v Speaker 2>enough oil in the stockpile if it becomes necessary to

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<v Speaker 2>draw from the reserves.

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<v Speaker 1>Well elsewhere on the energy front, here, John Bill Gates

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<v Speaker 1>said he's prepared to throw billions of dollars into a

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<v Speaker 1>next generation nuclear power plant project in Wyoming to make

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<v Speaker 1>growing US electricity needs. The billionaire tell Cbs has faced

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<v Speaker 1>the nation that his energy startup, Terra Power, relies on

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<v Speaker 1>sodium cooling rather than water, which is believed to both

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<v Speaker 1>simplify the process while also being safer, and can make

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<v Speaker 1>nuclear energy a source of a low cost electricity in.

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<v Speaker 6>Two big backers of this project are the terr power vesters,

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<v Speaker 6>of which I'm the largest. I put in over a

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<v Speaker 6>billion and I'll put in billions more. And then the

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<v Speaker 6>federal government, who is helping because of the strategic benefits

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<v Speaker 6>of having energy security and so we're not asking any

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<v Speaker 6>of the utility customers to take any risk and have

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<v Speaker 6>to pay high electricity prices. All of that risk is

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<v Speaker 6>on terror Power and the US.

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<v Speaker 1>Government Bill gates as Terror Powers plant is on track

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<v Speaker 1>to start producing power by twenty thirty.

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<v Speaker 2>And here it comes the season's first heat wave set

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<v Speaker 2>to hit the East Coast this week. Excessive heat watches

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<v Speaker 2>have been posted from Michigan to New Hampshire. Manhattan is

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<v Speaker 2>set to reach ninety one degrees tomorrow as steadily get

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<v Speaker 2>hotter throughout the week. Electric rids and wholesale prices will

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<v Speaker 2>be stressed as demand rises with the temperatures, which could

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<v Speaker 2>slow trains, tie it freight and passenger traffic, and can

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<v Speaker 2>also lead to increased heat illnesses.

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<v Speaker 1>And it's time now for a look at some of

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<v Speaker 1>the other stories making news in New York and around

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<v Speaker 1>the world. For that, we're joined by The Blottleberg's Michael

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<v Speaker 1>Barr Michael good Morning, Good.

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<v Speaker 7>Morning care In. The israelilitary says it is pausing fighting

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<v Speaker 7>during daytime hours along a route in southern Gaza to

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<v Speaker 7>free up a backlog of humanitarian aid deliveries for desperate Palestinians.

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<v Speaker 7>It should allow eight trucks to reach the Israel controlled

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<v Speaker 7>Karam Shalom crossing and travels safely to a highway to

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<v Speaker 7>deliver supplies to other parts of Gaza. The United Nations

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<v Speaker 7>says it welcomes the move, but adds that so far

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<v Speaker 7>no aid has left Karam Shalom. A peace conference to

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<v Speaker 7>end the warn Ukraine wrapped up Sunday, with eighty countries

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<v Speaker 7>jointly calling for any peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine.

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<v Speaker 7>EU Commission President Ursulavderlane says peace won't be achieved in

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<v Speaker 7>a single step.

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<v Speaker 8>I call on Russia to heed the message of the

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<v Speaker 8>international community, respect the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine,

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<v Speaker 8>put an end to imperialist violence, and bring back the children.

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<v Speaker 7>Russia was not invited to the conference in Switzerland. Several

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<v Speaker 7>mass shootings took place in the US over the weekend.

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<v Speaker 7>In the Detroit suburb of Rochester Hills, Michigan, a vigil

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<v Speaker 7>took place for nine people who were wounded at a

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<v Speaker 7>splash pad. The victims including two children and a pregnant woman.

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<v Speaker 7>Rochester Hills Mayor Brian Barnett spoke at the vigil.

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<v Speaker 9>Thank you for being for caring enough to be here today,

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<v Speaker 9>and if there's anything that the city can do, we.

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<v Speaker 10>Stand ready to do it.

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<v Speaker 9>We're stunned and hurt as well, but we know that

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<v Speaker 9>we have a role to play and we want to do.

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<v Speaker 10>It as best we can.

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<v Speaker 7>The gunman was found dead in his home from an

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<v Speaker 7>apparent self inflicted gunshot wound. In Texas, two people were

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<v Speaker 7>killed and several others injured during a June teenth celebration

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<v Speaker 7>over the weekend. In round Rock, police a shots were

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<v Speaker 7>fired during a fight near a concert stage. And in Methuen, Massachusetts,

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<v Speaker 7>officials say seven people were shot after a pop up

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<v Speaker 7>party organized over social media erupted in gunfire. A week

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<v Speaker 7>and a half before the first presidential debate, Former President

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<v Speaker 7>Donald Trump meets today with the House Speaker Mike Johnson

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<v Speaker 7>at Trump's resort in Mara Lago. Congressional Republicans are looking

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<v Speaker 7>at how to hold on to the slim majority they

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<v Speaker 7>have in the House. The Outsiders, based on the novel

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<v Speaker 7>of the same name by Susan Elouise Hinton, won the

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<v Speaker 7>Tony Award for Best Musical Producer. Matthew Rigo thanked the

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<v Speaker 7>author for sharing your story.

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<v Speaker 9>Susie.

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<v Speaker 11>I'm here to tell you that your story and his

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<v Speaker 11>eternal message of love and family and stain gold has

0:10:29.360 --> 0:10:31.640
<v Speaker 11>forever changed all of our lives.

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<v Speaker 10>We love you, Thank you.

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<v Speaker 7>I Stereophoni took home Best Play and Appropriate Best Play

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<v Speaker 7>Revival Global News twenty four hours a day and whenever

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<v Speaker 7>you want it with Bloomberg News Now. I'm Michael Barr.

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<v Speaker 7>This is Bloomberg Karen.

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<v Speaker 1>Yes, stay gold. Michael Barr, thank you time now for

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<v Speaker 1>the Bloomberg Spores Update with John Stanishauer. John, good morning,

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<v Speaker 1>Good morning care.

0:10:56.120 --> 0:10:58.480
<v Speaker 12>In the one hundred and twenty fourth US Open came

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<v Speaker 12>down the price of the Shambo and Rory McElroy down

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<v Speaker 12>the stretch at times tied both hell leads on the

0:11:03.840 --> 0:11:06.440
<v Speaker 12>back nine mcelroyal, but Theeah today three shots behind, led

0:11:06.480 --> 0:11:09.240
<v Speaker 12>by two with five holes to play and then had

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<v Speaker 12>a nightmare finish three Vogue. He's on sixteen and eighteen.

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<v Speaker 12>He missed a par put of no more than four

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<v Speaker 12>feet to Shamba took advantage a tremendous save for par

0:11:19.000 --> 0:11:21.000
<v Speaker 12>on the last hole gave him the one shot victory

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<v Speaker 12>the second Open title. On eighteen, his t shot landed

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<v Speaker 12>near a tree, his second shot in a bunker well

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<v Speaker 12>away from the green, but his sands shot got him

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<v Speaker 12>within four feet of the hole.

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<v Speaker 13>Thousands USGA Championship.

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<v Speaker 9>I mean, just stack him on top.

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<v Speaker 10>That bunker shot was the shot of my life.

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<v Speaker 9>And I'll forever be thankful that I've got longer wedges.

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<v Speaker 12>Shambo referenced to total number of USGA events that have

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<v Speaker 12>been played. Heartbreak for Mcelroyalo's guy gone a decade without

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<v Speaker 12>winning a major. Eleven times since then he's finished in

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<v Speaker 12>the top five. This was his fourth second place finish.

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<v Speaker 12>Yankees quick starting Boston Aaron Judge home run of the

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<v Speaker 12>first in his twenty sixth with the Red Sox won

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<v Speaker 12>nine to three and won the series. Boston pulled away

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<v Speaker 12>after the Yanks down four to three in the seventh,

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<v Speaker 12>had the bases loaded, no one out and didn't score

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<v Speaker 12>Mets with a city field sweep of the Padres, winning

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<v Speaker 12>eleven to six. Mets have won five in a row

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<v Speaker 12>nine of the last eleven. Rough weekend for the Dodgers.

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<v Speaker 12>They lost Yoshinovo Yamamoto to a strained rotator cuff, and

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<v Speaker 12>then Mookie Betts got hit with a pitch broke his hand.

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<v Speaker 12>They did win yesterday at show O Tony Homer twice.

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<v Speaker 12>Celtics tonight with a second chance to win the NBA Championship,

0:12:25.040 --> 0:12:27.640
<v Speaker 12>this time at home. They lead Dallas three games to one.

0:12:27.679 --> 0:12:31.480
<v Speaker 12>Another Caitlin Clark incident in the WNBA game against the

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<v Speaker 12>Chicago Sky. This time it was fellow rookie Angel Reese

0:12:34.520 --> 0:12:37.040
<v Speaker 12>who hit Clark in the head. Fever won the game.

0:12:37.080 --> 0:12:40.120
<v Speaker 12>Clark scored twenty three points, had eight rebounds nine assists.

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<v Speaker 12>John Stash, I want Bloomberg Sports Karen.

0:12:44.800 --> 0:12:48.960
<v Speaker 10>Coast to Coast on Bloomberg Radio, nationwide on Sirius XM,

0:12:49.040 --> 0:12:51.960
<v Speaker 10>and around the world on Bloomberg dot Com and the

0:12:52.000 --> 0:12:56.200
<v Speaker 10>Bloomberg Business app. This is Bloomberg Daybreak at.

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<v Speaker 2>US Futures right now indicate a mixto open on Wall

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<v Speaker 2>Street this morning. No short of events for investors to

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<v Speaker 2>launch onto us. We start the new week from the

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<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg Interactive Brokers studios. I'm John Tucker along with Karen Moscow.

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<v Speaker 2>We have the escalating concern about political volatility in France.

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<v Speaker 2>We had fed to speak over the weekend. Neil kush

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<v Speaker 2>Karri is saying, the central Bank and tickets time before

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<v Speaker 2>cutting rates. Let's get you set up for the trading

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<v Speaker 2>day ahead. We're joined now by Bloomberg's Critty Gupta, host

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<v Speaker 2>of Markets today in the UK. Pleasure to talk to you, Againtty.

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<v Speaker 2>Politics do matter for markets. In fact, France's stock market

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<v Speaker 2>now falling behind the UK. Do I have that right?

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<v Speaker 3>And that you do?

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<v Speaker 13>And this is remember something that they kind of overtook

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<v Speaker 13>about two years ago, and this latest drop behind the

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<v Speaker 13>UK's market cap is coming off of, of course, the

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<v Speaker 13>electoral volatility that you were talking about, about five percent

0:13:50.080 --> 0:13:52.160
<v Speaker 13>correction that you saw in the stock market. We'll call

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<v Speaker 13>that a mini correction, if you will. For the equities

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<v Speaker 13>they're seeing a little bit of a rebound today. But

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<v Speaker 13>what you need to know over the weekend is not

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<v Speaker 13>only is there this risk from the far right to

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<v Speaker 13>Emmanuel mcran, a revamped perhaps of what we saw in

0:14:05.440 --> 0:14:08.880
<v Speaker 13>twenty seventeen from Marine la Penn. Now he's dealing with

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<v Speaker 13>it from the left to and this is significant when

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<v Speaker 13>we're talking about policies that impact the markets, because this

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<v Speaker 13>is a group that is not only now that he

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<v Speaker 13>has to contend with for the snap legislative elections, but

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<v Speaker 13>wants to reverse government pension reform, reinciate the right to

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<v Speaker 13>retire at just sixty and this is a really big deal.

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<v Speaker 13>A lot of French are very passionate about. It has

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<v Speaker 13>led to a lot of protests on the streets, big

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<v Speaker 13>trash bags, for example, across Paris as a sign of

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<v Speaker 13>protests for a lot of the people include a lot

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<v Speaker 13>of people who were protesting Emmanuel mccron increasing the potential

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<v Speaker 13>retirement age to sixty three even sixty four in a

0:14:44.560 --> 0:14:48.200
<v Speaker 13>way to kind of control the country's finances. Marine la

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<v Speaker 13>Penn on the far right on the other hand, then

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<v Speaker 13>talking about perhaps unleashing the spending caps. These are the

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<v Speaker 13>concerns that the markets are worried about when it comes

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<v Speaker 13>to what policies might be shaping France in the next

0:14:59.680 --> 0:15:00.440
<v Speaker 13>couple weeks.

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<v Speaker 2>Let's move on to the US. Oh, we've got the

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<v Speaker 2>FED and we've gotten the more hawkish despite some of

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<v Speaker 2>the data that we've seen. Give us an idea of

0:15:10.600 --> 0:15:13.480
<v Speaker 2>what's on this front, because it's a very delicate balancing

0:15:13.520 --> 0:15:16.400
<v Speaker 2>act for the Federal Reserve. At this point. You don't

0:15:16.440 --> 0:15:20.440
<v Speaker 2>want inflation to rise or rise any further. At the

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<v Speaker 2>same time, you don't want to trash the economy.

0:15:23.880 --> 0:15:25.480
<v Speaker 13>You definitely don't. And I think this is where you

0:15:25.520 --> 0:15:27.960
<v Speaker 13>put your J. Powell Powell thinking cap and say, look,

0:15:27.960 --> 0:15:29.960
<v Speaker 13>you're data dependent, right, And I hate to use that

0:15:30.000 --> 0:15:32.240
<v Speaker 13>word because it's so frustrating, But here's really where you

0:15:32.280 --> 0:15:34.440
<v Speaker 13>need to keep in mind is what the data told us.

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<v Speaker 13>Last week, you had CPI data that was prepped welcomed

0:15:37.400 --> 0:15:39.960
<v Speaker 13>by the Fed, PPI numbers that were again welcomed by

0:15:39.960 --> 0:15:44.960
<v Speaker 13>the Fed, showing that that disinflationary path is continuing. But

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<v Speaker 13>then on Friday, those consumer sentiment numbers hitting a seven

0:15:48.320 --> 0:15:51.320
<v Speaker 13>month low and really crashing even two thousand nine lows

0:15:51.360 --> 0:15:53.800
<v Speaker 13>in certain parts of the market. Now this is concerning

0:15:53.880 --> 0:15:56.760
<v Speaker 13>because if the economic data is showing that inflation is

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<v Speaker 13>coming down, and you have job growth that is still

0:15:59.200 --> 0:16:02.480
<v Speaker 13>picking up in still growing, why is consumer sentiment so

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<v Speaker 13>low and how does that affects spending? Ability, especially ahead

0:16:05.920 --> 0:16:08.040
<v Speaker 13>of the election. That really changed a little bit of

0:16:08.040 --> 0:16:10.360
<v Speaker 13>the market pricing. Whereas the Fed said, look, there could

0:16:10.360 --> 0:16:13.480
<v Speaker 13>be one cup this year, maybe even two, the marketers

0:16:13.520 --> 0:16:15.160
<v Speaker 13>are saying, well, actually, this could be more and more

0:16:15.160 --> 0:16:17.400
<v Speaker 13>of a twenty twenty five problem. And remember, the Fed

0:16:17.480 --> 0:16:20.080
<v Speaker 13>is going to likely be on the sidelines as we

0:16:20.120 --> 0:16:22.320
<v Speaker 13>get closer to the election. At least that's the assumption

0:16:22.720 --> 0:16:23.800
<v Speaker 13>from Global Wall Street.

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<v Speaker 2>Right now, you're listening to Bloomberg Daybreak today, your morning brief.

0:16:27.240 --> 0:16:30.680
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0:16:31.040 --> 0:16:33.800
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0:17:09.920 --> 0:17:13.919
<v Speaker 1>Tucker, and I'm Karen Moscow. Join us again tomorrow morning

0:17:14.040 --> 0:17:16.280
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