Speaker 1: Hello, friends, and welcome into Fantasy Pros. This is the
Speaker 1: Fantasy Baseball Podcast, and today I've got two phenomenal guests
Speaker 1: where we're gonna be talking and breaking down the first round.
Speaker 1: What does Fantasy Baseball's first round look like? There's a
Speaker 1: lot of chalk. There's incredible players, of course, as there
Speaker 1: should be. But what is the wheel looking like? What
Speaker 1: are the strategies and really what are some of the
Speaker 1: big questions around how you're going to start your draft? Well,
Speaker 1: we are going to talk about that and answer. I've
Speaker 1: got Joe Rico, of course, who is all around on
Speaker 1: Fantasy Pros, and the great and powerful Frankie Stamps Frank
Speaker 1: Stanfel from CBS Fantasy Baseball Today. Frankie, what's up, buddy?
Speaker 2: Yo? What's going on guys?
Speaker 3: As you know, things are ramping up right now, pitchers
Speaker 3: and catchers reporting soon, we'll get spring training coming up,
Speaker 3: so very exciting times. Fantasy Baseball draft season is upon us.
Speaker 3: Very happy to be here with you guys, and happy
Speaker 3: to talk about the first round.
Speaker 1: Yeah, we'll break it all down. We'll see maybe who
Speaker 1: can fly in there, and at the end we'll talk
Speaker 1: about a couple players that we think by next season
Speaker 1: could be the first round. But also maybe by the
Speaker 1: back half of this year, who are guys that can
Speaker 1: jump up, maybe you know, even into the close end
Speaker 1: of the draft season ending, who can jump up and
Speaker 1: be a first round player. We got a couple of
Speaker 1: those fun ones we're gonna do. And we'll also see
Speaker 1: if Joe Rico can sneak a Toronto blue Jay into
Speaker 1: the first round. You got one that's close, But that's
Speaker 1: about all you're gonna be able to do. Joey, and
Speaker 1: hopefully he's a Blue Jay at least for the rest
Speaker 1: of this year.
Speaker 4: Oh man, we got to hope at least of the
Speaker 4: rest of this year. This is how he's going to
Speaker 4: start the show off. Guys, he's gonna be picking at
Speaker 4: me like piece of pa what Joe's not here? Wels
Speaker 4: just takes over that crown of picking on the blue
Speaker 4: Jay fan. But yeah, I mean, Vladi, we probably got
Speaker 4: one more year. I'm gonna hope that we sign him
Speaker 4: to a ten year contract and I think he's probably
Speaker 4: a first round player this year. But is he going
Speaker 4: to be wearing Toronto Blue come a year from now?
Speaker 4: Probably not.
Speaker 1: We will see we are going to be looking at
Speaker 1: the big board of what the first round ranks look
Speaker 1: on Fantasy Pros. But first I want to tell you
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Speaker 1: to wait in between any of your picks. You can
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Speaker 1: That's Fantasypros dot Com slash mock all right, gentlemen, let's
Speaker 1: jump right into this the first round, and we're not
Speaker 1: gonna like unravel it bam. We're gonna throw it right
Speaker 1: at you the first round. According to Fantasy Pros, we
Speaker 1: are looking at the consensus ranker that we've currently got
Speaker 1: on here, so things are gonna change over some time.
Speaker 1: But of all the rankers, myself, Frank, I don't know
Speaker 1: if you're on there. I know we got some of
Speaker 1: the CBS guys. Are you ranked on there?
Speaker 2: I haven't done it yet, but I do plan to
Speaker 2: at some point.
Speaker 1: Shame, shame, shame. But we do have Scott Why, Scott
Speaker 1: Why all over the drafts always hates or loves mine.
Speaker 1: You can check those out. So we've got the rankers
Speaker 1: on there. The consensus ranks, that is what this equates to.
Speaker 1: The big board looks as such show Heyotani coming in
Speaker 1: at number one, Bobby Witt Junior at two, Aaron Judge
Speaker 1: at three, Ellie De la Cruz at four, Gunner Henderson
Speaker 1: at five, followed by Juan Soto, Jose Ramirez, Kyle Tucker,
Speaker 1: Mookie Betts, Corbyn Carrol. That's your top ten. We're gonna
Speaker 1: go to fifteen, assuming you're going into roto. You've got
Speaker 1: Fernando Tatis Junior at eleven, Lyn d'Or at twelve, your
Speaker 1: now Varez, Paul Skins, and Julio Rodriguez. That would equate
Speaker 1: to your twelve teams and your rotos. That is what
Speaker 1: the first round looks like. All right, bye, folks, that's
Speaker 1: the show.
Speaker 2: That's it.
Speaker 1: Now we're gonna break it down like those are the picks,
Speaker 1: but there's some big discussions to be had in there
Speaker 1: about maybe where you want to draft, what this entire
Speaker 1: thing looks like. So the big board is fun, it
Speaker 1: looks great. But let's dig into them a little bit
Speaker 1: and let's start with show. Hey Otani, it's pretty easy.
Speaker 1: You don't have to think too hard about it.
Speaker 2: Yes, he is.
Speaker 1: Positionless as a DH, but I think people are done
Speaker 1: with that. That was a big argument that I was
Speaker 1: making last year where I pushed Otani up pretty dramatically.
Speaker 1: If you remember, he was going around nine, eight, nine,
Speaker 1: ten somewhere in there. The position doesn't matter obviously because
Speaker 1: you go fifty to fifty. But here's the new wrinkle
Speaker 1: that's thrown in as well. You've also got pitching. Frank,
Speaker 1: what I'm curious about is what valuation change is there
Speaker 1: at all with Otani, who is now going to be pitching.
Speaker 1: They're say he's going to be pitching in May. And
Speaker 1: here's an anecdotal thing. We were working on projections in
Speaker 1: the back half here on Fantasy pros and one of
Speaker 1: the dev guys shows me the projections and he goes,
Speaker 1: is this right. It's crazy. It looks crazy when you
Speaker 1: start to associate the hitting and the pitching stats in
Speaker 1: with him. From an auction value standpoint, Otani goes ballistic.
Speaker 1: And that's what we were talking about, by the way,
Speaker 1: it was the numbers that look ballistic from an auction standpoint.
Speaker 1: But Otani is a little bit baseline on if you're
Speaker 1: playing in a head to head daily format, if you
Speaker 1: can change him, because my only argument would be is
Speaker 1: if you're in a weekly format, you're never going to
Speaker 1: use him as a pitcher. You're always going to use
Speaker 1: him as a hitter. But you talk to us, he
Speaker 1: is not consensus. Every single ranker does not have Otani
Speaker 1: at one. I just want to point out, but what
Speaker 1: is your take on Atani at one and the pitching
Speaker 1: side of this being thrown into his fantasy equation for
Speaker 1: this year.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think looking at what he just did right
Speaker 3: first fifty to fifty season in MLB history, he absolutely
Speaker 3: should be the number one player. But there are some
Speaker 3: risk factors here because he's not only returning from Tommy
Speaker 3: John surgery now as a pitcher, he's also returning from
Speaker 3: shoulder surgery that he had after the postseason. So a
Speaker 3: little bit of added risk here with Shohotani, but we
Speaker 3: realize what the upside is. It's massive, sky high. Fifty
Speaker 3: to fifty just did that last season, so I think
Speaker 3: at worst he's in the top three. I can't fault
Speaker 3: anybody who wants to take Shoheo Tani first.
Speaker 2: Overall. You mentioned a few different formats here.
Speaker 3: If you play in a daily lineup league, I know
Speaker 3: a lot of Yahoo had to head categories daily lineups
Speaker 3: Shoho Tani, if he's one player, he's the.
Speaker 2: One one, no doubt about it.
Speaker 3: If you can reap the rewards of both his hitting
Speaker 3: and pitching on a daily basis as one player, there
Speaker 3: is no doubt that he is the first overall pick
Speaker 3: in that format. Speaking of Yahoo, I think there's also
Speaker 3: I think most of their leagues, if not, you know,
Speaker 3: the default is that he's two different players.
Speaker 1: I was about to say, it's not Yahoo where you're
Speaker 1: getting that, though, Frank, that might be.
Speaker 2: It might be ESPN, right.
Speaker 1: ESPN and fan tracks both have him as one interchangeable
Speaker 1: player that you're able to do that. I mean, you
Speaker 1: guys have that on CBS as well, though. It just
Speaker 1: you have to be in a daily format, not a weekly, and.
Speaker 3: The majority of leagues on CBS are weekly formats, so
Speaker 3: I mean some people do play in a daily format.
Speaker 3: In any daily format where he's one player and you
Speaker 3: can get both, obviously, Otani is the one to one
Speaker 3: if you.
Speaker 2: Split him up. You know, DH and pitcher. I have
Speaker 2: SP thirty in my rankings.
Speaker 3: It sounds like, you know, he's not going to pitch
Speaker 3: into a couple of weeks, maybe a month into the
Speaker 3: season as he's recovering again from that shoulder surgery that
Speaker 3: he had in the off season. But when he pitches,
Speaker 3: you know, again, on a per enting basis, he could
Speaker 3: perform like a low end SP one, like a top
Speaker 3: twelve starting pitcher. It's just you're not going to get
Speaker 3: that volume. You've got to wait a little bit for him.
Speaker 3: And then even once he returns. The Dodgers likely to
Speaker 3: run a six man rotation, so absolutely no problem with
Speaker 3: him going first overall, little bit of added risk this year,
Speaker 3: but I don't think he should go any lower than
Speaker 3: the top three. It feels like to me that there's
Speaker 3: a very clear top three this season.
Speaker 1: Do you have him at one?
Speaker 2: I have in a roto leagues, I have Bobby with
Speaker 2: Junior ahead of him. It just feels a little bit safer.
Speaker 3: You're getting production across the board, don't have that added risk.
Speaker 3: He's not coming back from any surgery. I don't think
Speaker 3: the upside is as high for Bobby Witt, but the
Speaker 3: floor is higher and really in the first couple of
Speaker 3: rounds that I would just want to play it as
Speaker 3: safe as possible.
Speaker 2: To me, Bobby with Junior a little bit safer than
Speaker 2: Shoho Toney.
Speaker 1: It's very interesting. I'm going to bring up a point
Speaker 1: here in what I been saying a lot, but I
Speaker 1: was I felt like you might be insinuating that Otani
Speaker 1: is not there, Arico. The stats were ridiculous. He is positionless.
Speaker 1: There is kind of an element to this of like
Speaker 1: he wasn't pitching last year. The pitching being thrown into
Speaker 1: this does add a new, little tiny wrinkle as far
Speaker 1: as like, maybe there is some more injury risk. Is
Speaker 1: there anything positively or negatively you'd take. Maybe you bump
Speaker 1: down show Hey Otani or is he just the clear cut?
Speaker 1: It ain't even funny if you don't take him one,
Speaker 1: what's you take on Otani?
Speaker 4: So I do have him one. But if somebody did
Speaker 4: want to take Bobby with Junior, especially a volume player,
Speaker 4: if you're somebody who's more on the degenerate side like us,
Speaker 4: and you're going to play in ten or twenty leagues
Speaker 4: and you get the first overall pick five times, maybe
Speaker 4: you take show Hey three times in Bobby with Junior
Speaker 4: twice or something like that, just to mitigate some of
Speaker 4: the risk. But the format really really is so important.
Speaker 4: Like we mentioned the Yahoo, ESPN, NFBC, they're all going
Speaker 4: to be different. If you're on the NFBC, and a
Speaker 4: lot of people who are drafting to this point of
Speaker 4: the year have probably been using predominantly the NFBC rooms.
Speaker 4: You have the option to use him as a pitcher
Speaker 4: or as a hitter in a given week, and you're
Speaker 4: going to use him as a hitter the majority of
Speaker 4: the time. But there's a chance that maybe three of
Speaker 4: your pitchers get hurt and you have that luxury mid
Speaker 4: season to you show Heyotani as a pitcher, So just
Speaker 4: that extra security. On the NFBC, I think he's the
Speaker 4: clear number one there and on ESPN, Like that's just
Speaker 4: so so far and away. But if you're talking about
Speaker 4: like a Yahoo head to head league where you do
Speaker 4: just get the hitter stats versus just Bobby with Junior's
Speaker 4: hitter stats, I think it's probably a little bit closer
Speaker 4: than the average person's gonna think. Bobby with Junior was
Speaker 4: just ridiculous last year as well, Like you're talking about
Speaker 4: a thirty plus homer and stolen base season when you're
Speaker 4: hitting close to three thirty. Like, yes, it's not the
Speaker 4: same level necessarily, but he also doesn't come with that
Speaker 4: added injury risk. Our mutual friend Ariel Cohen has talked
Speaker 4: about for years, how about when Otani is pitching, it's
Speaker 4: just double the chance of him getting hurt at the
Speaker 4: plate and then on the mound. Bobby with Junior several
Speaker 4: years younger without those big injuries. So I think that
Speaker 4: you could legitimately flip a coin in a lot of cases,
Speaker 4: and it wouldn't really bother me so much whichever side
Speaker 4: you landed on it, except for those leagues where you
Speaker 4: can use him as both, like ESPN, then it's just
Speaker 4: it's a clear cut Otani number one.
Speaker 1: Looking at atc projections, Bobby Witt Junior projected thirty homers,
Speaker 1: thirty three stolen bases with a two to ninety five average,
Speaker 1: one hundred and five runs, ninety three RBI. It's elite.
Speaker 1: It's a lead of elite Otani forty one homers, thirty
Speaker 1: four stolen bases, so both in favor of him more
Speaker 1: runs more RBIs one hundred and thirteen runs, one hundred
Speaker 1: and three RBIs, batting average two seventy five. Otani takes
Speaker 1: four of the five categories from a projection standpoint comparative
Speaker 1: to Bobby Witt. He does not have a position that
Speaker 1: goes in favor of Bobby Witt. Maybe the pitching makes
Speaker 1: people feel a little bit squeamish about it.
Speaker 2: It does show.
Speaker 1: Up in the ranks, It does show up a tiny
Speaker 1: bit because the best ranking. There are only two players
Speaker 1: on the ranks right now that have a number one overall.
Speaker 1: It is Otani and Bobby Witt. They both have a
Speaker 1: low though of three on the consensus rank, so they
Speaker 1: both have pushed down in that three spot. That leads
Speaker 1: to another question. So we look at the ranks here
Speaker 1: and the ADP also represented is representative of it because
Speaker 1: we're talking about all of the rankers that are ranking well.
Speaker 1: If you move to average draft position, we've already got
Speaker 1: data from ESPN, Yahoo's, CBS, NFBC, I think fan tracks
Speaker 1: is on there and we're already seeing some of that.
Speaker 1: Their top four is representative of what our rank top
Speaker 1: four is. So here is the question is it a
Speaker 1: top four or is it a top three? Those players
Speaker 1: are show Heyotani, Bobby Wit, Aaron Judge, and Ellie day
Speaker 1: La Cruz. And the thing that I have thrown out
Speaker 1: a lot is there's kind of a flavor for everybody.
Speaker 1: If you want all of the big stats with no position,
Speaker 1: it's Otani. If you want all of the stats that
Speaker 1: are just smaller than Otani, it's Bobby Witt, maybe a
Speaker 1: little bit more average. If you want all the power
Speaker 1: in the world, it's Aaron Judge the fourth. If you
Speaker 1: want all the stolen bases in the world, it's Ellie
Speaker 1: day La Cruz. Not everybody feels as positive about Ellie,
Speaker 1: and when I say is it the top three or four,
Speaker 1: I'm really kind of referring to Ellie because some do
Speaker 1: and don't put him in that position. Mister frank sample,
Speaker 1: is it a top three tier or does it go
Speaker 1: to four for you?
Speaker 2: What a fraud?
Speaker 3: I am here on a podcast wearing in Ellie day
Speaker 3: La Cruz Jersey. Oh no, And it is not a
Speaker 3: clear top four in my opinion, I think it's a
Speaker 3: very clear top three. We mentioned Otani, Bobby Witt, and
Speaker 3: Aaron Judge. Obviously, Judge amazing batting average power counting stat
Speaker 3: should be awesome. Some people have labeled him injury prone.
Speaker 3: I think early on in his career that made sense.
Speaker 3: But a couple of years ago he got hurt. He
Speaker 3: like fractured his toe in Dodger Stadium in kind of
Speaker 3: like a freak accident. So I don't really think that
Speaker 3: Aaron Judge is injury prone. I would be willing to
Speaker 3: use a top three pick on him. Elid the Cruz
Speaker 3: I don't think is a clear number four. In fact,
Speaker 3: I have him eighth overall in my rankings, and it's
Speaker 3: just the way that I typically like to build my
Speaker 3: Rodo category teams. Steals are much more plentiful in the
Speaker 3: middle to late rounds versus batting average and power. I
Speaker 3: feel like those are much harder to find as the
Speaker 3: draft goes along here, and you know someone like Jose
Speaker 3: Ermirez is going to provide more power obviously across the
Speaker 3: board production, or someone like Juan Soto is going to
Speaker 3: provide more power, Someone like Kyle Tucker more batting average
Speaker 3: and more power than Ellie de la Cruz. I think
Speaker 3: you could say the same thing for Gunnar Henderson. So
Speaker 3: those are the names that I have ahead of Ellie
Speaker 3: de la Cruz this year. And the fact that if
Speaker 3: you build your team around him being the steel source,
Speaker 3: if at any point he does get hurt, that is
Speaker 3: just a huge chunk of your expected steels that you
Speaker 3: are going to be missing for.
Speaker 2: A period of time. So I love the player. He's electric.
Speaker 3: I think he's a first round pick, and especially if
Speaker 3: you play in a points league where you lose points
Speaker 3: for strikeouts, he does get dinged a little bit in
Speaker 3: that format as well.
Speaker 2: But yeah, not part of a clear top four for me.
Speaker 1: Probably safe to maybe have even given people a marker
Speaker 1: is a little bit more head to head roto conversation.
Speaker 1: This is a little less points. I agree with this.
Speaker 1: I would ding him in a points league. I am
Speaker 1: aggressive though in in a roto and head format, and
Speaker 1: I do agree there are steals that are more plentiful
Speaker 1: across the board. But I also don't see it as
Speaker 1: empty steals. I see it as the elite of elite
Speaker 1: stolen bases. He's hitting for power. He upped his barrel percentage,
Speaker 1: I mean twelve percent. It was from eight percent elite levels.
Speaker 1: Hard hits elite, but he still does strike out a lot.
Speaker 1: But he is a monster. But the monster is like,
Speaker 1: are you really truly getting the five categories? And that's
Speaker 1: where that pushes back. I will also say on the
Speaker 1: ranks for the consensus rankers, Ellie has a high of three,
Speaker 1: He's got a low of eight one. Soto is also
Speaker 1: one of those guys that has a high of three,
Speaker 1: So there is some variance there, But there are people
Speaker 1: that are going to put Sodo above. Format might change
Speaker 1: Arico kind of same thing, just with Ellie. Is it
Speaker 1: at all a top three? Is it only a top three?
Speaker 1: Is it a top four? Does he is he involved?
Speaker 1: Is it a top five?
Speaker 4: One?
Speaker 1: Soto what is your thought on Ellie being a part
Speaker 1: of that group.
Speaker 4: I don't think he is. I don't think he should be.
Speaker 4: And this might be because I'm more of a sucker
Speaker 4: for batting average as every year goes by. I'm looking
Speaker 4: to really build a stable floor of two eighty plus
Speaker 4: hitters in the first couple round. And if you look
Speaker 4: by ADP of the other hitters going in the first round,
Speaker 4: just by ATC's projections, two eighty six, two ninety five,
Speaker 4: two eighty two, two seventy five, two seventy, two seventy five,
Speaker 4: two seventy eight, and then we have two fifty three
Speaker 4: with La de la Cruz, And well, yeah, that's a
Speaker 4: lot better than we were probably expecting a year ago.
Speaker 4: If you set a year ago, all he's going to
Speaker 4: be a two to fifty hitter. We're all going to
Speaker 4: take that. But comparatively speaking, it is a bit of
Speaker 4: a drop off. And then once you get out of
Speaker 4: that first round to find more guys who are going
Speaker 4: to give you the six hundred plus played appearance projection
Speaker 4: with a high batting average, they really go very very quickly.
Speaker 4: So unless you are making a dedicated plan to go
Speaker 4: for guys like Freddie Freeman. Throughout the draft. Maybe you
Speaker 4: can get merrill. You know, there's certain guys where you
Speaker 4: can target batting average. But that's a really huge thing
Speaker 4: for me. And even though the steels are great, Frankie
Speaker 4: said it, you can get steals later on. You don't
Speaker 4: need to get sixty projected steals fifty five sixty projected
Speaker 4: steals in the first round when you can get several
Speaker 4: guys going really through. I'm just looking buy ADP. Even
Speaker 4: if you're getting to like the one hundredth roughly one
Speaker 4: hundredth batter or so, you're still finding guys who are
Speaker 4: going to be projected into twenty to twenty five steel range.
Speaker 4: They're not a sexy players, but you can make up
Speaker 4: that production. I'd rather build a solid five category floor
Speaker 4: anchored by batting average than take Ellie in the top five.
Speaker 4: But I think he is a first round player, no question.
Speaker 1: So okay, well good, I mean, I don't even think
Speaker 1: that was a question. But you know what, maybe that
Speaker 1: does float out there at least in the ranks. He
Speaker 1: still is in that spot. Again, I do want to
Speaker 1: point out Ellie is technically for the eightyp's a little
Speaker 1: mess up because it's got like the pitcher side. He
Speaker 1: is fourth across the board, though ESPN. I want to
Speaker 1: point out he is twenty seven in ADP, so he's
Speaker 1: like five in YAHOO five and CBS four in NFBC,
Speaker 1: twenty seven in ESPN. So I guess there is some variants.
Speaker 1: You bring up an interesting point when you guys are
Speaker 1: talking about some of these other players that might make
Speaker 1: more sense when you look at the first round so
Speaker 1: littered with what outfielders and shortstops and like a little
Speaker 1: sprinkling of a pitcher we'll talk about. Except there's this
Speaker 1: one needle in the haystack that keeps poking at you.
Speaker 1: That needle is Jose Ramirez. Ro Jose Ramirez is that
Speaker 1: non shortstop outfield position player who put up essentially a
Speaker 1: forty forty season. He always does it. He's a monster
Speaker 1: in there. Do we at all think that there is
Speaker 1: some extra point that should be given, an extra value
Speaker 1: for a guy like Jose Ramirez who is consistent as
Speaker 1: can be. They've made the left handed hitter right field
Speaker 1: wall even a little bit more of a tunnel so
Speaker 1: you can project more power. But really the thing is
Speaker 1: is he qualifies at a position that is not in
Speaker 1: the first round. It's just shortstops and outfield. You have
Speaker 1: an advantage when you do it. Rico, we'll start with you.
Speaker 1: Do you think Jose Ramirez deserves a little bit more
Speaker 1: of a boost. He comes in, by the way, at
Speaker 1: seven on the ranks here he is above Kyle Tucker,
Speaker 1: Mookie Bets, but he is below Wan Soto and Gunner Henderson.
Speaker 1: He has a high a four and a low of thirteen.
Speaker 1: Does he deserve a little bit more because he is
Speaker 1: the outlier positionally in the first round.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I would take him straight up over Dela Cruz
Speaker 4: and over a couple of those players. I think that
Speaker 4: he is probably fifth right now, somewhere around five for me.
Speaker 4: You can maybe argue it's hard to go wrong really
Speaker 4: early on there, but he's roughly the fifth overall player
Speaker 4: for me. And part of it is that scarcity. There
Speaker 4: are only eight first basemen going in the first top
Speaker 4: one hundred picks outside of Jay ram Like you said,
Speaker 4: no other first rounders. There's Jazz in the second round.
Speaker 4: In the third round you got Riley Devers Machado. If
Speaker 4: you're able to get one of those other names, then
Speaker 4: I guess it depends on how you're planning out your
Speaker 4: draft where you are positionally, If you think you can
Speaker 4: get Austin Riley when you're coming back in the second
Speaker 4: or third round, then maybe you don't need to take
Speaker 4: Jay Ram just because of the perceived scarcity of the position.
Speaker 4: But I think you're getting a five category guy who
Speaker 4: Whether or not you can get Riley, Devers, Machado, it
Speaker 4: is a weaker position, right, it does dry up. Well,
Speaker 4: you're talking about Royce Lewis. As much as I like
Speaker 4: Jake Berger, these guys is top ten players at the position,
Speaker 4: it is fairly weak. So locking that down and then
Speaker 4: not having to worry about it at all, I don't
Speaker 4: mind it. I don't mind it. I really don't. But
Speaker 4: is it? Where do you? I have them at five
Speaker 4: right now. But the thing is as well, I don't
Speaker 4: want to be locking myself into these positional bubbles in
Speaker 4: the first round and saying I have to do this positionally.
Speaker 4: That's something I want to be worrying about a lot
Speaker 4: later in a perfect world. But at the same time,
Speaker 4: there are two sides to the point. If you can
Speaker 4: just not have to worry about it, then you don't
Speaker 4: have to worry about it, and I'm okay with that
Speaker 4: as well, Frankie.
Speaker 1: That's actually what I was going to ask is you
Speaker 1: don't even you can get into ramires however you want,
Speaker 1: but like, do you even let it seep into your
Speaker 1: brain positionally? Do you think positionally? Are you positionally agnostic
Speaker 1: when you're looking at it. I don't care if it's outfit,
Speaker 1: I don't care if it short, it's up. I don't
Speaker 1: care that Jose Ramirez is the outlier positionally across the board.
Speaker 1: Are you wondering at all and carrying it all and
Speaker 1: focusing on positions in that first round?
Speaker 2: No, not in the first round, not in the first
Speaker 2: couple of rounds. I actually agree with Joe there.
Speaker 3: I think you just want to bank as many stats
Speaker 3: as possible and build that safe floor across the different categories,
Speaker 3: not really worrying about positions. Worry more about the categories
Speaker 3: and making sure that you're filling all those out. And
Speaker 3: that's exactly what Jose Ramirez does. So he is the
Speaker 3: number four player for me. He's not part of a
Speaker 3: top four. I think again, there's a clear top three
Speaker 3: and then it kind of opens up, you know, four
Speaker 3: through eight is again maybe a little bit of a
Speaker 3: mini tier there. But I think even more than the
Speaker 3: position that Jose Amirez plays is just the consistency that
Speaker 3: he has provided. And he has finished as a top
Speaker 3: six player four of the past five seasons. The one
Speaker 3: that he didn't was twenty twenty three. He still finished
Speaker 3: twenty third overall. So you're telling me that's the floor
Speaker 3: Josierramirez as a second round pick in his worst season
Speaker 3: in the past five years. Yeah, that's absolutely someone who
Speaker 3: should be drafted the top five.
Speaker 4: I just flipped them the number four. I just flipped
Speaker 4: him with Gunner in my rankings.
Speaker 2: So, oh, live live, it happened.
Speaker 4: Frank I did it. Yeah, I'm gonna put that on Frankie.
Speaker 4: So if Bridge a ram West, we know what we're
Speaker 4: going for.
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Speaker 1: All right, let's move through a couple more first round questions.
Speaker 1: Do Corbin Carolyn Julio Rodriguez deserve to be in this
Speaker 1: first round? Kind of a I guess, a goofy question
Speaker 1: and to do it. But if you're looking at the
Speaker 1: production and you're looking at consistency, We've talked a lot
Speaker 1: about consistency. Gunner's great, Bobby Witt, Jose Ramirez, Judge, maybe
Speaker 1: Ellie's a little bit of a question. You get into
Speaker 1: guys like Kyle Tucker, Mookie Betts. What are these guys
Speaker 1: all have in common? They just do it every single year.
Speaker 1: Julio Rodriguez and Corbyn Carroll were both relative disappointments. Corbyn
Speaker 1: really bounced back on the back half, but you saw
Speaker 1: frank you know you were on it, whether we never
Speaker 1: got a confirmation if there's like a shoulder thing or not.
Speaker 1: But batting average kind of sunk. It was late power run.
Speaker 1: Julio is inconsistent. They really didn't get a whole lot
Speaker 1: there around him, So like, I know he's there there,
Speaker 1: that's what it is. But do you think there should
Speaker 1: be more questions asked about Corbyn, Carroll and Julio Rodriguez.
Speaker 1: Corbyn is number ten on these ranks. He has a
Speaker 1: high of six, but he has a low of nineteen.
Speaker 1: Julio Rodriguez is fifteen. He also has a high of
Speaker 1: nine but a low of twenty eight. Amongst rankers on
Speaker 1: the ADP, Carol is eleven, Julio is fourteen, but ESPN
Speaker 1: slams you on Julio with a low or an average
Speaker 1: of forty two. So I gave you all the pieces here, Frankie,
Speaker 1: what do you think about Carol and Julio and your
Speaker 1: investment on them in the first round.
Speaker 3: I think they absolutely should be in the mix. And
Speaker 3: as we've talked about it, it kind of feels like
Speaker 3: there's many tiers within the first couple of rounds. Here
Speaker 3: a clear top three to me, the four through eight
Speaker 3: I think is pretty locked in. Once you get to nine,
Speaker 3: I think things start to open up a little bit.
Speaker 3: You have your Mookie Betts's, your Fernando Tatis Junior, you
Speaker 3: have Corbyn Carrol, Julio Rodriguez, Francisco Lindor, Vladd Junior, Jordon Alvarez.
Speaker 3: So really from nine through let's say fifteen or sixteen,
Speaker 3: it feels very interchangeable. I think it just comes down
Speaker 3: to how you want to build your team and based
Speaker 3: on the upside. I still think Carol and Julio Rodriguez
Speaker 3: need to be in this conversation. Maybe they don't have
Speaker 3: as safe floors as you know, other guys that have
Speaker 3: done it for longer. Lindor is basically thirty thirty locked
Speaker 3: in the past couple of years. If you just want
Speaker 3: that four category production and you want more of a
Speaker 3: stable batting average, Vladd Junior or Yordon Alvarez could make
Speaker 3: more sense. But if you're just talking about production across
Speaker 3: the board, Julio Rodriguez five category producer, he is held
Speaker 3: back playing in Seattle. You know the counting stats, the ballpark,
Speaker 3: playing there, But we.
Speaker 2: Just saw it a couple of years ago.
Speaker 3: I mean, he can go thirty thirty, which you can't
Speaker 3: really say about many other players in the league.
Speaker 2: And then Corbin Carroll slightly different skill set.
Speaker 3: Maybe the batting average floor a little bit lower than
Speaker 3: we thought heading into last season, but you know, twenty
Speaker 3: to twenty five home runs, forty fifty plus deals, so
Speaker 3: it's a little bit of a different skill set. But
Speaker 3: I think absolutely both players should be in the mix
Speaker 3: as late first early second round picks.
Speaker 1: Joe, do you think that Corbyn Carroll or Julio Rodriguez,
Speaker 1: in drafting them, come with any type of a caveat?
Speaker 1: Do you feel that they they're the type of player
Speaker 1: that you're like, now, I gotta go a little safer.
Speaker 1: You know, sometimes players do that. You don't really want
Speaker 1: that in the first round, and you know, Frank Gardi
Speaker 1: you kind of say you don't worry about positional stuff,
Speaker 1: but like when you draft a Carol or Julio A
Speaker 1: could you draft both of them together? Be if you
Speaker 1: were to draft one of them, do you feel like, man,
Speaker 1: I've got to go get a Jordan Alvarez. I've got
Speaker 1: to go get a Vladimir Guerrero Junior. I need a
Speaker 1: safe floor player. Do you feel that at all? Or,
Speaker 1: like I said, would you be comfortable taking both of
Speaker 1: those guys?
Speaker 4: If I'm on the turn, and especially in a fifteen
Speaker 4: team league, and I end up with both of them
Speaker 4: I picked fourteen or fifteen, I'd be pretty happy with that.
Speaker 4: The projections like both of them. They both rebounded very
Speaker 4: well down the stretch. Julio started out slowly in each
Speaker 4: of the last couple of seasons, and I wonder if
Speaker 4: that's just who he is. He gets off to a
Speaker 4: bit of a slow start. I'm also kind of not
Speaker 4: really sure what to make of the whole Seattle Paul
Speaker 4: Park batter's eye thing. Are they going to make a change.
Speaker 4: Are they not going to make a change. We don't
Speaker 4: really know there. But even if they don't, like if
Speaker 4: you just look at the baseline projections for Julio ATC
Speaker 4: has twenty seven and twenty seven, ZIPS has twenty seven
Speaker 4: and twenty seven, bat x twenty seven to twenty nine.
Speaker 4: Oopsie the new projection which really shoots for the fence
Speaker 4: thirty two and thirty two with a two eighty eight
Speaker 4: batting average. So I still think he's fine. Do I
Speaker 4: worry about the surrounding environment and the teammates, Like, is
Speaker 4: Randy Rose Arena his most offensively talented teammate right now,
Speaker 4: Probably if they get Pete Alonso, I like that a
Speaker 4: bit more. But between the two of them, I'm definitely
Speaker 4: more in on Corbyn Carroll. You know, the shoulder issue
Speaker 4: seems to be resolved with the caveat there that we
Speaker 4: don't really know for sure, but just based on his
Speaker 4: performance down the stretch, it really did seem like Corbyn
Speaker 4: Carroll was pretty fine in the second half. He was
Speaker 4: stealing bases, He hit seventeen home runs in sixty three games,
Speaker 4: So maybe the injury wasn't as severe as we might
Speaker 4: have thought and it just healed on its own. People
Speaker 4: are gonna be worried about is he gonna need surgery
Speaker 4: at some point? But again, even in like his worst season,
Speaker 4: I mean, he's only had a couple of seasons, but
Speaker 4: this was, you know, a down year for Corbyn Carroll.
Speaker 4: He had one hundred and twenty one runs twenty two
Speaker 4: and thirty five. He also had only a two to
Speaker 4: fifty six babbot in Welsh. I wonder like you watch
Speaker 4: him a lot more than I think the rest of
Speaker 4: us do. Being in Arizona. Previous two years Babbit for
Speaker 4: Corbyn Carroll was three thirty three and three twenty five.
Speaker 4: He goes down to two fifty six. Do you think
Speaker 4: that bounces back and he can hit to eighty five
Speaker 4: again one.
Speaker 1: Hundred thousand percent. Also, babbit could be driven by speedy guys,
Speaker 1: so it's like he's one of the fastest in baseball.
Speaker 1: He struggled making contact. People can use babbub like the
Speaker 1: super generic ways. You could look and you could be like, oh,
Speaker 1: that's eighty points off of their standard. That's bad luck.
Speaker 1: You know that's working, and that is not a repeatable thing.
Speaker 1: Sometimes they're not intercorrelated all. But you look at left
Speaker 1: on base percentage for a pitcher and you're like, oh,
Speaker 1: that's you know, sixty two percent that's not going to
Speaker 1: maintain or ninety five percent. You look at low babbebs
Speaker 1: and you're like, oh, that's like a metric you can
Speaker 1: look at for potential positive regression. So yeah, I think.
Speaker 1: I think I always thought Corbin, to be honest with you,
Speaker 1: his batting average was more of the stabilizer, and it
Speaker 1: really fell apart because he had this massive hole in
Speaker 1: his swing in the upper portions of the zone which
Speaker 1: he got attacked, attacked, and he really never found great ways,
Speaker 1: whether it was his shoulder or just his swing style,
Speaker 1: because he'll get you know, you know, like he doesn't
Speaker 1: have like a short swing. He's got a super fast swing,
Speaker 1: but he'll just kind of come across the body and
Speaker 1: got beat pretty bad. But I always thought that that
Speaker 1: could improve. I think I think Carol's still a great
Speaker 1: baseline player, and ATC it does have Julio pret rejected
Speaker 1: at two seventy four, Carroll at two fifty eight, but
Speaker 1: Carrolett two fifty eight is still phenomenal. They project twenty
Speaker 1: four homers and forty stolen bases. One of I believe
Speaker 1: Corbin Carroll is the number one player in runs scored
Speaker 1: when at first base, Like his percentile was just dramatically
Speaker 1: higher than any player. When he was on base, it
Speaker 1: was like over fifty percent of the time the dude
Speaker 1: was scoring a run. So if he's hitting for higher average,
Speaker 1: he's projected at one hundred and seven runs. That's as
Speaker 1: much as one Soto. I want to point out in etc. Projections,
Speaker 1: Ario Cohen one of the most respected. He is the
Speaker 1: same projected runs as Juan Soto twenty four to forty,
Speaker 1: So like I'm obviously defender of Corbyn Carroll, but it
Speaker 1: does feel a little caveaty sometimes like maybe you're taking
Speaker 1: on some inherent risk, but maybe even more so we
Speaker 1: can discuss kds and where you want to pick. We'll
Speaker 1: do here in just a second. What I do want
Speaker 1: to bring up is a very very important conversation in
Speaker 1: the first round, probably the last of the big like
Speaker 1: you know this certain player or draft strategy thing his pitchers.
Speaker 1: So the discussion can you take a picture? Are you
Speaker 1: comfortable taking a picture?
Speaker 2: This year?
Speaker 1: Obviously, Paul Skeens is the top guy. He's at thirteen
Speaker 1: in ADP. Across the board, he's the lowest rank is
Speaker 1: actually on CBS or at least our current data at eighteen.
Speaker 1: Overall his rank as we were looking on the big board,
Speaker 1: he came in at fourteen with a high of five
Speaker 1: a low of thirty one. Trick Schooble's close Frank Stanful
Speaker 1: can and will you draft a starting pitcher in the
Speaker 1: first round.
Speaker 2: I can draft a starting pitcher in the first round.
Speaker 3: I will not draft a starting pitcher in the first round,
Speaker 3: and I probably won't draft one in the second round either.
Speaker 3: I have no doubt that both of these guys are
Speaker 3: talented enough to earn this draft stock, earn return on investment.
Speaker 3: Paul Skeins and Trek Scooble obviously both incredibly talented and
Speaker 3: in Paul Skens's case, incredibly young. But just the inherent
Speaker 3: risk that comes with starting pitchers. I mean, the past
Speaker 3: couple of years, velocity being up, injuries being up, trips
Speaker 3: to the il Tommy surgeries at an all time high.
Speaker 3: It's just if you draft starting pitchers, they are more
Speaker 3: risky than taking early round hitters and famous last words.
Speaker 3: I feel like, you know somebody, everybody comes up with
Speaker 3: this every single season, but the middle rounds of pitching
Speaker 3: actually looks really good this season, you know. I think
Speaker 3: if you wait until round three or round four and
Speaker 3: you get a Corbyn Burns or a Cole Reagan's or
Speaker 3: Dylan See someone like that, you can build your rotation
Speaker 3: George Kirby something like that, even like the ultimate fallback option,
Speaker 3: Fran Ravaldez going like round five or six right now.
Speaker 3: If you wait and just kind of build your staff
Speaker 3: around him, someone you know is a workhorse, I think
Speaker 3: you can find a way to make it work. So
Speaker 3: they're absolutely talented enough. I think that they can return,
Speaker 3: but they just come with more risk and as I
Speaker 3: said earlier, just trying to play it as safe as
Speaker 3: possible in the first couple of rounds. I won't be
Speaker 3: drafting a starting pitcher in rounds one or two.
Speaker 1: Yeah, especially if you draft in a league with Joe Rico.
Speaker 1: You're gonna get Garrett Crochet in the fourth round every
Speaker 1: time because he just always passes on him thinks he's
Speaker 1: gonna get him in the fourth round, you're locked in.
Speaker 1: If you got a late third round, you're gonna get
Speaker 1: Garrett Krosch in the late third or fourth round because
Speaker 1: Rico refuses to pull the trigger on it. Joe, besides
Speaker 1: Garrett Crochet, is there a world where you could stomach
Speaker 1: pulling pocket aces? Pocket aces being the strategy of two
Speaker 1: starting pitchers in your first two picks, that would clearly
Speaker 1: be Tarik Schooble and Paul Skins the biggest advantage you
Speaker 1: could possibly have. But could you stomach and do you
Speaker 1: think you would ever suggest anybody do pocket aces? And
Speaker 1: you know, is there a scenario where first or even
Speaker 1: second round you would pull the trigger on school or Skins.
Speaker 4: So no on the pocket aces. In a lot of cases,
Speaker 4: if you're in like a really shallow if you're in
Speaker 4: a ten team league, maybe I could see it. Maybe
Speaker 4: I could see it a lot of replacement level value.
Speaker 4: You could really win your league. I know that term
Speaker 4: is thrown around a lot, but if both of those
Speaker 4: guys go one hundred and seventy innings, then you're winning
Speaker 4: all the pitching categories. Now, if we're just talking one
Speaker 4: of them in the first round, generally speaking, it's a no.
Speaker 4: I like to really build that base of what at
Speaker 4: least one, if not two hitters. Sometimes if one of
Speaker 4: them falls, it's tempting. I did a mock draft last
Speaker 4: night with Frank and some of the guys over at CBS,
Speaker 4: and I took Paul Skeins, And it's because he fell
Speaker 4: to the middle of the second round, and I thought, Okay,
Speaker 4: generally speaking, he's not falling to the middle of the
Speaker 4: second round. I'll take a chance on him here. It
Speaker 4: was also a mock draft. Once the money's on the table,
Speaker 4: who knows. There's different things that come into play there.
Speaker 4: But I think if you're talking about, generally speaking, in
Speaker 4: the first couple of rounds. You should build your base offensively,
Speaker 4: and then once you get to round three through seven,
Speaker 4: you can get a Crochet. You can get Iman Gonna
Speaker 4: get in trouble here, but Jacob Gram I love Jacob
Speaker 4: de Gram. You can get George Kirby, you can get Reagan's.
Speaker 4: There's a lot of names that are still ace level
Speaker 4: pitchers that you don't have to pay up a top
Speaker 4: thirty or forty eightyp for. So get your Vlatties, your
Speaker 4: Corby and Carrol's, your mookie bets, and then you start
Speaker 4: building your pitching starting around pick fifty.
Speaker 1: When you do a video, it's the players that you
Speaker 1: will get yelled at the most. If you draft and well,
Speaker 1: that video will start with Jacob deGrom if you have
Speaker 1: that discussion, Luckily we're not having a first round discussion
Speaker 1: about him, but they will be more ex curial. Yeah. Well,
Speaker 1: I mean, you know what, if he pitches one hundred
Speaker 1: and forty one hundred and fifty innings, sure we'll be
Speaker 1: probably talking about him and Skins on the wheel. I
Speaker 1: don't know if any of us will still want it.
Speaker 1: I'm not doing it. I'm with Frank, I'm with you
Speaker 1: guys not taking a first round pitcher. I'm really not
Speaker 1: doing a second round pitcher. If you're in a points
Speaker 1: league format and pitching gets pushed up a little bit, yeah,
Speaker 1: maybe I'm like, especially on a wheel, I might be
Speaker 1: a little bit more app for a guy like Paul
Speaker 1: Skins as well. But there's just so much depth out there,
Speaker 1: But it just doesn't doesn't feel like the strategy any
Speaker 1: of us want to pull. But hey, you know what,
Speaker 1: sometimes you got to pivot. But the pitching market is
Speaker 1: a big doom for us and no boom if you will, Frankie,
Speaker 1: you like that one. All right, last couple of things,
Speaker 1: let's get into these are We're gonna maybe do a
Speaker 1: little projection here. But what I want to ask is,
Speaker 1: since we've talked about all the players again one last time,
Speaker 1: that top fifteen on the East Hear on Fantasy Pros,
Speaker 1: We've got Atani Witt, Judge, Ellie Gunners, your top five
Speaker 1: Sodo Ramirez, Tucker, Bets Carrol, and then your bottom five
Speaker 1: through fifteen is Tatis, lind Or Alvarez, Skeins, and Julio Rodriguez.
Speaker 4: Joe.
Speaker 1: We'll start with you Katis Kentucky Kentucky system where you
Speaker 1: get to pick your draft spot. Where do you want
Speaker 1: to draft in the first round this year?
Speaker 4: So generally speaking, like when we've done our mock drafts,
Speaker 4: I've mixed it up a little bit, but I like
Speaker 4: to be on the back end of the first round,
Speaker 4: somewhere between pick nine and twelve, or if it's a
Speaker 4: fifteen team league, I get somewhere between ten and fifteen.
Speaker 4: And it's because I think that we're probably talking about
Speaker 4: roughly twenty first round viable players this year, and if
Speaker 4: you're drafting on the back end and you're able to
Speaker 4: pair up like we mentioned earlier, Julio and Carrol, or
Speaker 4: you're able to get Bets and Lindore, or Vlad Guerrero
Speaker 4: and Jackson, Curio Jordan Alvarez, etcetera, etcetera, I really like
Speaker 4: being in that kind of range. Also because when you're
Speaker 4: talking if you're in the early top three picks, I
Speaker 4: just am not really as big of a fan of
Speaker 4: the guys that come back to you in that kind
Speaker 4: of range. Bryce Harper, Jared Duran, William Contrerez, Jazz Chisholm.
Speaker 4: It's a bit of a riskier range for me, So
Speaker 4: I'd like to be at the back end and really
Speaker 4: just secure two of those players that I do perceive
Speaker 4: be first round values as opposed to taking that high
Speaker 4: end first round player and then kind of sacrificing on
Speaker 4: my second round and taking a player that I'm not
Speaker 4: as interested in now. One last thing. In a fifteen
Speaker 4: team league, though, if you're drafting first overall and you
Speaker 4: get Sho Hee o Twani or Bobby wit Junior, I
Speaker 4: don't mind that turn there because the players that are
Speaker 4: available a little bit later, you know, Michael Harris, there's
Speaker 4: you can nail down a first closer if you want
Speaker 4: to go for a Class A if you did want
Speaker 4: to reach on into Grom like, I don't mind it
Speaker 4: in a fifteen team league, but a lot of the time,
Speaker 4: nine times out of ten, I'm picking a later draft
Speaker 4: spot this year.
Speaker 1: Frankie, what do you think where if you are picking
Speaker 1: in the first round, what's that spot that you want
Speaker 1: that sweet spot for you?
Speaker 3: I think Joe laid it out well in terms of
Speaker 3: if you have a back end of the first round pick,
Speaker 3: it kind of feels like there's fifteen, sixteen, seventeen first
Speaker 3: round caliber players. So obviously, if you are picking on
Speaker 3: that back end, you you basically lock down two of
Speaker 3: those guys. If not there, I think third just whoever
Speaker 3: falls of the top three. Again, it feels like a
Speaker 3: top three o Tani, Bobby Wit, Aaron Joe in whatever order.
Speaker 3: I'll just take whichever one falls to me at pick three.
Speaker 3: In a twelve team league, I think you know, there
Speaker 3: is a chance you could still get a Freddy Freeman
Speaker 3: or a Trey Turner falls to you at the back
Speaker 3: half of the second round in a fifteen team, or
Speaker 3: it is a little bit tougher Joe, because as you
Speaker 3: pointed out, if you pick third, you know some of
Speaker 3: those names that are falling to you. It's kind of
Speaker 3: that range where it feels like there's kind of a
Speaker 3: tear drop in the in the production expected production for
Speaker 3: those players, and you feel like, all right, maybe I'm
Speaker 3: reaching on some of these guys in the late second round.
Speaker 3: But in a twelve teamer, you know, around pick twenty
Speaker 3: one twenty two, I think that you'll still have some
Speaker 3: pretty good value there. So if it's not the back half,
Speaker 3: I'll just take number three and whoever falls.
Speaker 1: I like what you guys are saying, like Ka Tell
Speaker 1: Marte is another and a twelve team on the back
Speaker 1: half of the second to third you could take that
Speaker 1: works in there's a lot of things you can do.
Speaker 1: Fifteen does make it tougher. You are reaching a little bit.
Speaker 1: I will tell you, I really like that six to
Speaker 1: seven spot for this year because I believe that there
Speaker 1: there's a big tier. I like what you said that
Speaker 1: there's seventeen eighteen, maybe twenty four around talented players. But
Speaker 1: I think if you're looking at an A tier, there's
Speaker 1: about seven players that are a tier, and that is
Speaker 1: broken into like one A and one B. I guess
Speaker 1: that's you know, this tier one and it's one A,
Speaker 1: one B and one A is like Otani and Wit
Speaker 1: and then maybe Judge, and then that B tier opens
Speaker 1: up to guys like we've talked about Ellie, Gunner, Henderson,
Speaker 1: Juan Soto, Jose Ramirez. So if you're around six, you're
Speaker 1: gonna get somebody that's gonna fall to you. If you
Speaker 1: don't like Eli, then that's not good for you. But
Speaker 1: like Gunner or Jose Ramirez or Ellie, and I think
Speaker 1: you get a really good spot coming back. You might
Speaker 1: have one more of those really good positional players that
Speaker 1: are gonna be floating around there. Then in the third round,
Speaker 1: you're in a really good spot to snipe Joe Rico
Speaker 1: on Garrett Crochet and that's like, that's prime of what
Speaker 1: we're talking about the last two things here. Let's have
Speaker 1: a little look see for what the first round could
Speaker 1: be starting with by the end of the draft season.
Speaker 2: Who is a.
Speaker 1: Player we know who the top fifteen is? You want to,
Speaker 1: you know, just use number sixteen, that's fine. But is
Speaker 1: there a that you think over the next six weeks
Speaker 1: has an opportunity to jump into the first round. This
Speaker 1: is not an uncommon thing. I think there are probably
Speaker 1: only a handful of players that can do this. But
Speaker 1: we've talked about that there are maybe twenty ish players
Speaker 1: that are first round caliber. Which of those players that
Speaker 1: is not in the fifteen mister Frank Stanfel, do you
Speaker 1: think could potentially jump in and people start taking on
Speaker 1: the wheel of fourteen and fifteen because they don't want
Speaker 1: to miss out.
Speaker 3: I think there's a pretty obvious name. I think maybe
Speaker 3: it's already started too, and that is Jackson Surio. As
Speaker 3: a twenty year old last year went twenty twenty and
Speaker 3: from June one he hit three zero three with sixteen
Speaker 3: home runs fifteen steals, and people are thinking of, man,
Speaker 3: the potential. This guy can hit three hundred, He could
Speaker 3: go thirty thirty. If he pops a couple home runs
Speaker 3: in spring training and just starts tearing the cover off
Speaker 3: the ball, he absolutely will be in the mix for
Speaker 3: a first round pick. I did want to give an
Speaker 3: honorable mention to Ronald Dacunya, who right now is kind
Speaker 3: of a stay away for me, just because it sounds
Speaker 3: like he's going to miss the first month of the
Speaker 3: season coming back from another torn acl He has torn
Speaker 3: the eight in both of his knees. For someone whose
Speaker 3: skill set is so revolved around speed and ceiling bases,
Speaker 3: obviously that is a problem. But if he plays in
Speaker 3: spring training and he starts to look like himself and
Speaker 3: we start to get some positive reports, all right, maybe
Speaker 3: he'll be back a little bit sooner than we thought.
Speaker 3: We're not going to restrict him as much. I could
Speaker 3: see people kind of buying back in and moving Ronald
Speaker 3: Lcunya back up into that one two turn. It's probably
Speaker 3: not going to be me, but I could see a
Speaker 3: scenario where it happens.
Speaker 1: I like that too, because I'm kind of I'm exactly
Speaker 1: like you like I'm out right now with the injury,
Speaker 1: there's a lot of floating stuff. If we get more
Speaker 1: confirmation he's playing in spring trending and they say, hey, listen,
Speaker 1: we're going to give him two weeks to ramp up
Speaker 1: mid April he's back. You know what, great wheel pick.
Speaker 1: Get him on the wheel with whatever hitter that's floating
Speaker 1: out there. Maybe you could take a Julio and Ronald
Speaker 1: Acunia and that's like top five from last year. So
Speaker 1: that's the spot we go.
Speaker 2: Jackson Cherry was.
Speaker 1: One hundred percent of the player. If neither one of
Speaker 1: you said it, I was going to say, I think
Speaker 1: he is the prime example of the guy that is
Speaker 1: going to end up jumping arica. Is there anybody else
Speaker 1: that you think that has the potential over the next
Speaker 1: six weeks in the draft season to move into be
Speaker 1: a first rounder or someone we could maybe you know,
Speaker 1: on occasion see jumping up into the back end of
Speaker 1: the wheel. People starting to snag out.
Speaker 4: Well, the Acuna ones really interesting. If we get any
Speaker 4: whiff of good news or any you know, if there's
Speaker 4: a video of him running at full speed like he's
Speaker 4: going in the first round. I've mentioned him already a
Speaker 4: couple times, I'm already going to be in trouble in
Speaker 4: the comments, so I might as well double down. If
Speaker 4: we see Jacob B. Groham throwing ninety nine miles an
Speaker 4: hour in spring training, somebody's taken him in the first round,
Speaker 4: especially in those NFBC drafts. In the main event, it's
Speaker 4: gonna happen. Pitching gets pushed up there to begin with,
Speaker 4: and then if we do see like just these crazy
Speaker 4: clips of pitching Ninja f Rob Friedman starting to share
Speaker 4: these things, then I could definitely see it. And there's
Speaker 4: one more name that's kind of a little bit less obvious,
Speaker 4: but I think Jazz Chisholm has a potential to get
Speaker 4: there in some leagues. And then Mak we did last night,
Speaker 4: Frank he went on the one two turn and it
Speaker 4: was a twelve teamer. I think he went thirteenth. And
Speaker 4: you might say, well, somebody was just a little bit
Speaker 4: over anxious there. But we're talking about a guy who
Speaker 4: is now playing in New York and another guy where
Speaker 4: if we see, you know, he's healthy. If we get
Speaker 4: those best shape of their life type of videos, I
Speaker 4: could see jas Chisum sneaking into that one two turn.
Speaker 4: In fact, I believe he's already gotten there in some drafts.
Speaker 4: His minimum pick on the NFBC this year is thirteen,
Speaker 4: so it's already happened at least a few times. I
Speaker 4: could see it happening a little bit more with that
Speaker 4: whole New York flare. If we see him have a
Speaker 4: you know, like what O'Neil Cruz did to some extent
Speaker 4: last year in spring training. If he starts hitting the
Speaker 4: cover off the ball, stealing bases he's in New York,
Speaker 4: I could see it happening, all right.
Speaker 1: Final one here, let's do a little future projecting. I
Speaker 1: labeled this as next year, but maybe it's even by
Speaker 1: the end of the year. Let's take a outside the
Speaker 1: top fifty player right now that has the potential to
Speaker 1: jump up in someone we could be talking about as
Speaker 1: a first rounder next season. Joey, Let's start with you
Speaker 1: potential outside the top fifty ish player that could be
Speaker 1: a first round that by the end of this year,
Speaker 1: or someone we're looking at next year in the first round.
Speaker 4: So he is kind of fringy depending on which site
Speaker 4: you look at. Some of them he might be inside
Speaker 4: of the top fifty. Some of them he might be
Speaker 4: just outside of it, but I'm going with Wyatt Langford,
Speaker 4: and I think Wyatt Langford is where even by the
Speaker 4: end of this year we could be talking about him
Speaker 4: as as a first round value. The projections love him.
Speaker 4: I know a lot of the people who are more
Speaker 4: into prospects, welsh u and Eric Cross is obsessed with
Speaker 4: him and it's hard to not have to be when
Speaker 4: you look at the data. Like all the things around
Speaker 4: him last year, all the narratives were that it was
Speaker 4: a disappointing season. He didn't meet up to expectations. He
Speaker 4: still hit sixteen home runs, nineteen stolen bases, he hit
Speaker 4: two fifty three. It was a one to ten WRC plus,
Speaker 4: he had a good walk rate of nine percent, didn't
Speaker 4: strike out a lot, only twenty percent, barreled the ball
Speaker 4: up at a nine percent rate. There's a lots to
Speaker 4: really like. And the comp that I've used for the
Speaker 4: people who are more football inclined is it was essentially
Speaker 4: like Marvin Harrison junior. The expectations were so stupid high
Speaker 4: that it looks like a disappointment, but it was really
Speaker 4: actually a very very good season. And when you're looking
Speaker 4: at projections, pretty much the baseline is about twenty to
Speaker 4: twenty five homers and twenty stolen bases with about a
Speaker 4: two seventy batting average when you factor in how deep
Speaker 4: that Rangers lineup is. Where Jake Berger's projected a hit
Speaker 4: eighth right now, this could very easily be one hundred
Speaker 4: runs one hundred RBIs where he's hitting thirty homers if
Speaker 4: things break right with twenty plus stolen bases, and I
Speaker 4: think he could very easily be in that first round
Speaker 4: conversation next year. The way Jackson Churio is this year,
Speaker 4: definitely one.
Speaker 1: I took a look at Yahoo and ESPN both have
Speaker 1: him ADP outside the top fifty, so I think that
Speaker 1: definitely works. This would have been one I would have
Speaker 1: thrown out as well. Frank love your name. This is
Speaker 1: a nice deep shot here, a good popular target outside
Speaker 1: the top sixty or seventy in some spots. So your
Speaker 1: player that we could be seen by the end of
Speaker 1: this year next year as a first rounder.
Speaker 3: I will just preface this with I think you guys
Speaker 3: chose the two perfect players just outside the top fifty
Speaker 3: who could be in this first round conversation. So I'll
Speaker 3: drop down a little bit lower and someone else who
Speaker 3: has a lot of hype this offseason is Lawrence Butler.
Speaker 3: The ADP right now is seventy five point eight across
Speaker 3: all of the different websites, and we know that he
Speaker 3: was awesome over the final three months. Hit three zero
Speaker 3: two to twenty home runs, fourteen steals, a nine to
Speaker 3: forty three ops in seventy three games there for Lawrence
Speaker 3: Butler during that stretch, strikeout rate was manageable, right around
Speaker 3: twenty one percent.
Speaker 2: He hit the ball really hard.
Speaker 3: I love that as a young left handed bat, he
Speaker 3: had really good left handed right handed splits. He hit
Speaker 3: lefties better than he hit righty's last year. So what
Speaker 3: that tells me is he should be an everyday player,
Speaker 3: which obviously helps with projecting playing time and counting stats
Speaker 3: and things like that. And the move from Oakland Coliseum
Speaker 3: to Sacramento in Sutter Health Park, which I think maybe
Speaker 3: as a community we might be overvaluing the ballpark shift
Speaker 3: a little bit, but I still think it's going to
Speaker 3: be a better ballpark than Oakland Colisseum.
Speaker 2: And it's a warmer climate too.
Speaker 3: I know my co host Chris Sowards did some research
Speaker 3: into this, and it's like in the summer, it's it
Speaker 3: could be as much as like an average of ten
Speaker 3: degrees hotter.
Speaker 1: And it's similar to Arizona here a client because you're
Speaker 1: away from coastal and Sacramento and it's got you. I mean,
Speaker 1: like it's going to hit hundreds and stuff like that,
Speaker 1: and that's a you know, relatively what we experience here
Speaker 1: in like May So, yeah, I agree with that.
Speaker 3: So if that happens, like the ball is just going
Speaker 3: to fly out, and if that, you know, look power
Speaker 3: and speed. I think the Oakland lineup is okay, it's
Speaker 3: not as terrible as we thought heading into las year.
Speaker 3: I think gets an improving lineup. I see a scenario
Speaker 3: here where Lawrence Butler goes twenty five to twenty five
Speaker 3: with a pretty good batting average, and I mean the
Speaker 3: upside the ninety nine percent is like thirty thirty. He
Speaker 3: hits three hundred and just becomes one of the best
Speaker 3: players in baseball. I don't think that's out of the
Speaker 3: realm of possibility. And if that happens, then yeah, we're
Speaker 3: looking at a first round pick with Lawrence Butler.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I like that one. Mine, as you guys are
Speaker 1: kind of alluded to, I pick James Wood adp is
Speaker 1: at fifty one. I've talked a lot about him for
Speaker 1: quite some time. Nine homers, fourteen stolen bases last year
Speaker 1: he hit two sixty four strikeouts are definitely something that
Speaker 1: he's going to continue working on. But the profile, ten
Speaker 1: percent barrel, fifty two percent hard hit rate, phenomenal expected
Speaker 1: batting average supported his batting average. He didn't get the
Speaker 1: ball in the air two degree launch angle, and he
Speaker 1: still hit those nine homers. That's going to adjust. It's
Speaker 1: like a super common young guy thing. He did a
Speaker 1: really good job in the miners of hitting both righties
Speaker 1: and lefties. He also did that at the major league level,
Speaker 1: which I think two sixty batting average across righty's and
Speaker 1: lefties is huge. The first fifty at bats were kind
Speaker 1: of he's adjust period. The rest of the season he
Speaker 1: ended up hitting just about two seventy. He's got thirty
Speaker 1: thirty potential for James Wood, He's gonna have an entire
Speaker 1: season in front of him. I love him. He's definitely
Speaker 1: a potential first rounder. So whyet lang for James Wood,
Speaker 1: maybe even Lawrence Butler. Some potentials for the end of
Speaker 1: this year or next year, and those are the guys
Speaker 1: you guys can let us know who you like for
Speaker 1: next year. Who's a guy that could sneak into the
Speaker 1: first round that we didn't talk about, your absolute favorite
Speaker 1: place to draft. Do it all in the comments on
Speaker 1: the YouTube side. If you guys are listening on the audio,
Speaker 1: make sure you go check it out YouTube dot com
Speaker 1: Slash Fantasy Pros MLB. You guys can be a part
Speaker 1: of the discussion as always, and make sure to check
Speaker 1: out mister Frank Stample on Fantasy Baseball Today, one of
Speaker 1: the best fantasy baseball podcasts in all of the land.
Speaker 1: For Joel Rico, Frank Stamfle I'm Chris Welsh. Thank you
Speaker 1: guys so much for hanging out with us, and we
Speaker 1: will talk to you next time right here on Fantasy Pros.
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