WEBVTT - First Round Breakdown with Frank Stampfl (Ep. 924) 0:00:05.240 --> 0:00:07.560 Hello, friends, and welcome into Fantasy Pros. This is the 0:00:07.560 --> 0:00:11.799 Fantasy Baseball Podcast, and today I've got two phenomenal guests 0:00:12.000 --> 0:00:15.200 where we're gonna be talking and breaking down the first round. 0:00:15.280 --> 0:00:18.239 What does Fantasy Baseball's first round look like? There's a 0:00:18.239 --> 0:00:20.840 lot of chalk. There's incredible players, of course, as there 0:00:20.880 --> 0:00:23.480 should be. But what is the wheel looking like? What 0:00:23.520 --> 0:00:25.799 are the strategies and really what are some of the 0:00:25.800 --> 0:00:28.320 big questions around how you're going to start your draft? Well, 0:00:28.320 --> 0:00:30.240 we are going to talk about that and answer. I've 0:00:30.240 --> 0:00:32.320 got Joe Rico, of course, who is all around on 0:00:32.360 --> 0:00:35.960 Fantasy Pros, and the great and powerful Frankie Stamps Frank 0:00:36.000 --> 0:00:38.760 Stanfel from CBS Fantasy Baseball Today. Frankie, what's up, buddy? 0:00:39.240 --> 0:00:40.800 Yo? What's going on guys? 0:00:40.840 --> 0:00:43.680 As you know, things are ramping up right now, pitchers 0:00:43.680 --> 0:00:46.400 and catchers reporting soon, we'll get spring training coming up, 0:00:46.680 --> 0:00:50.040 so very exciting times. Fantasy Baseball draft season is upon us. 0:00:50.360 --> 0:00:52.800 Very happy to be here with you guys, and happy 0:00:52.840 --> 0:00:54.000 to talk about the first round. 0:00:54.080 --> 0:00:55.880 Yeah, we'll break it all down. We'll see maybe who 0:00:55.920 --> 0:00:57.840 can fly in there, and at the end we'll talk 0:00:57.880 --> 0:01:00.920 about a couple players that we think by next season 0:01:00.960 --> 0:01:02.920 could be the first round. But also maybe by the 0:01:02.960 --> 0:01:04.920 back half of this year, who are guys that can 0:01:05.000 --> 0:01:07.800 jump up, maybe you know, even into the close end 0:01:07.840 --> 0:01:10.520 of the draft season ending, who can jump up and 0:01:10.560 --> 0:01:12.200 be a first round player. We got a couple of 0:01:12.200 --> 0:01:14.240 those fun ones we're gonna do. And we'll also see 0:01:14.280 --> 0:01:17.160 if Joe Rico can sneak a Toronto blue Jay into 0:01:17.200 --> 0:01:19.800 the first round. You got one that's close, But that's 0:01:19.800 --> 0:01:21.480 about all you're gonna be able to do. Joey, and 0:01:21.520 --> 0:01:24.760 hopefully he's a Blue Jay at least for the rest 0:01:24.760 --> 0:01:25.240 of this year. 0:01:25.480 --> 0:01:27.480 Oh man, we got to hope at least of the 0:01:27.520 --> 0:01:29.400 rest of this year. This is how he's going to 0:01:29.440 --> 0:01:31.200 start the show off. Guys, he's gonna be picking at 0:01:31.240 --> 0:01:32.880 me like piece of pa what Joe's not here? Wels 0:01:32.959 --> 0:01:35.000 just takes over that crown of picking on the blue 0:01:35.040 --> 0:01:36.880 Jay fan. But yeah, I mean, Vladi, we probably got 0:01:36.880 --> 0:01:39.880 one more year. I'm gonna hope that we sign him 0:01:39.880 --> 0:01:42.280 to a ten year contract and I think he's probably 0:01:42.280 --> 0:01:44.480 a first round player this year. But is he going 0:01:44.560 --> 0:01:47.400 to be wearing Toronto Blue come a year from now? 0:01:47.960 --> 0:01:48.400 Probably not. 0:01:49.480 --> 0:01:52.120 We will see we are going to be looking at 0:01:52.120 --> 0:01:54.360 the big board of what the first round ranks look 0:01:54.400 --> 0:01:56.040 on Fantasy Pros. But first I want to tell you 0:01:56.120 --> 0:01:59.800 guys about the Fantasy Pros Draft Simulator. Level up your 0:01:59.840 --> 0:02:03.440 fan fantasy Baseball draft prep. With Fantasy Pros Mock Draft Simulator, 0:02:03.480 --> 0:02:07.760 you can complete realistic mock drafts in minutes without having 0:02:07.840 --> 0:02:09.960 to wait in between any of your picks. You can 0:02:10.000 --> 0:02:12.639 see that we've done that on the Fantasy Pros channel. 0:02:12.800 --> 0:02:14.680 We will have a couple people. The private mock drafts 0:02:14.680 --> 0:02:16.760 are gonna open up for everybody soon, but you can 0:02:16.840 --> 0:02:19.680 jump in the draft Draft simulator and you can just 0:02:19.760 --> 0:02:22.240 knock down strategies left and right. You can tailor your 0:02:22.280 --> 0:02:25.920 mock drafts to your league specific settings, including roster configurations 0:02:25.919 --> 0:02:29.920 and scoring systems. You'll receive instant feedback in draft grades 0:02:30.120 --> 0:02:32.799 to refine your draft strategy and gain a competitive edge. 0:02:32.800 --> 0:02:35.919 It'll say, Hey, the Welsh loves your draft. Joe Rico, 0:02:36.440 --> 0:02:38.079 he doesn't like it. Those are some of the draft 0:02:38.120 --> 0:02:41.560 grades you'll get. Prepare confidently and dominate your draft with 0:02:41.600 --> 0:02:44.600 the mock Draft simulator at Fantasypros dot com slash mock. 0:02:44.840 --> 0:02:49.359 That's Fantasypros dot Com slash mock all right, gentlemen, let's 0:02:49.440 --> 0:02:51.800 jump right into this the first round, and we're not 0:02:51.919 --> 0:02:55.639 gonna like unravel it bam. We're gonna throw it right 0:02:55.680 --> 0:02:58.400 at you the first round. According to Fantasy Pros, we 0:02:58.440 --> 0:03:00.880 are looking at the consensus ranker that we've currently got 0:03:00.919 --> 0:03:02.959 on here, so things are gonna change over some time. 0:03:03.639 --> 0:03:06.160 But of all the rankers, myself, Frank, I don't know 0:03:06.160 --> 0:03:07.079 if you're on there. I know we got some of 0:03:07.120 --> 0:03:08.600 the CBS guys. Are you ranked on there? 0:03:09.240 --> 0:03:11.280 I haven't done it yet, but I do plan to 0:03:11.320 --> 0:03:11.840 at some point. 0:03:12.080 --> 0:03:14.680 Shame, shame, shame. But we do have Scott Why, Scott 0:03:14.680 --> 0:03:17.040 Why all over the drafts always hates or loves mine. 0:03:17.400 --> 0:03:19.440 You can check those out. So we've got the rankers 0:03:19.480 --> 0:03:22.120 on there. The consensus ranks, that is what this equates to. 0:03:22.160 --> 0:03:24.760 The big board looks as such show Heyotani coming in 0:03:24.800 --> 0:03:28.080 at number one, Bobby Witt Junior at two, Aaron Judge 0:03:28.080 --> 0:03:30.360 at three, Ellie De la Cruz at four, Gunner Henderson 0:03:30.400 --> 0:03:33.600 at five, followed by Juan Soto, Jose Ramirez, Kyle Tucker, 0:03:33.680 --> 0:03:36.920 Mookie Betts, Corbyn Carrol. That's your top ten. We're gonna 0:03:36.920 --> 0:03:39.560 go to fifteen, assuming you're going into roto. You've got 0:03:39.560 --> 0:03:43.600 Fernando Tatis Junior at eleven, Lyn d'Or at twelve, your 0:03:43.720 --> 0:03:47.040 now Varez, Paul Skins, and Julio Rodriguez. That would equate 0:03:47.080 --> 0:03:50.480 to your twelve teams and your rotos. That is what 0:03:50.520 --> 0:03:53.600 the first round looks like. All right, bye, folks, that's 0:03:53.600 --> 0:03:53.960 the show. 0:03:54.040 --> 0:03:54.440 That's it. 0:03:54.720 --> 0:03:56.920 Now we're gonna break it down like those are the picks, 0:03:56.960 --> 0:03:59.080 but there's some big discussions to be had in there 0:03:59.360 --> 0:04:01.920 about maybe where you want to draft, what this entire 0:04:02.000 --> 0:04:04.480 thing looks like. So the big board is fun, it 0:04:04.520 --> 0:04:06.960 looks great. But let's dig into them a little bit 0:04:06.960 --> 0:04:10.000 and let's start with show. Hey Otani, it's pretty easy. 0:04:11.080 --> 0:04:12.320 You don't have to think too hard about it. 0:04:12.400 --> 0:04:13.080 Yes, he is. 0:04:13.120 --> 0:04:15.920 Positionless as a DH, but I think people are done 0:04:15.960 --> 0:04:17.520 with that. That was a big argument that I was 0:04:17.560 --> 0:04:20.839 making last year where I pushed Otani up pretty dramatically. 0:04:21.400 --> 0:04:24.240 If you remember, he was going around nine, eight, nine, 0:04:24.279 --> 0:04:27.560 ten somewhere in there. The position doesn't matter obviously because 0:04:27.560 --> 0:04:30.240 you go fifty to fifty. But here's the new wrinkle 0:04:30.320 --> 0:04:34.480 that's thrown in as well. You've also got pitching. Frank, 0:04:34.680 --> 0:04:38.480 what I'm curious about is what valuation change is there 0:04:38.480 --> 0:04:40.840 at all with Otani, who is now going to be pitching. 0:04:40.880 --> 0:04:42.720 They're say he's going to be pitching in May. And 0:04:42.760 --> 0:04:45.719 here's an anecdotal thing. We were working on projections in 0:04:45.760 --> 0:04:48.279 the back half here on Fantasy pros and one of 0:04:48.279 --> 0:04:51.160 the dev guys shows me the projections and he goes, 0:04:51.760 --> 0:04:56.720 is this right. It's crazy. It looks crazy when you 0:04:56.760 --> 0:04:59.880 start to associate the hitting and the pitching stats in 0:05:00.080 --> 0:05:03.440 with him. From an auction value standpoint, Otani goes ballistic. 0:05:03.440 --> 0:05:04.680 And that's what we were talking about, by the way, 0:05:04.680 --> 0:05:07.360 it was the numbers that look ballistic from an auction standpoint. 0:05:07.760 --> 0:05:11.920 But Otani is a little bit baseline on if you're 0:05:11.920 --> 0:05:13.800 playing in a head to head daily format, if you 0:05:13.800 --> 0:05:15.680 can change him, because my only argument would be is 0:05:15.680 --> 0:05:17.479 if you're in a weekly format, you're never going to 0:05:17.560 --> 0:05:19.280 use him as a pitcher. You're always going to use 0:05:19.320 --> 0:05:21.880 him as a hitter. But you talk to us, he 0:05:22.000 --> 0:05:24.640 is not consensus. Every single ranker does not have Otani 0:05:24.680 --> 0:05:26.200 at one. I just want to point out, but what 0:05:26.320 --> 0:05:29.240 is your take on Atani at one and the pitching 0:05:29.560 --> 0:05:31.760 side of this being thrown into his fantasy equation for 0:05:31.800 --> 0:05:32.120 this year. 0:05:32.680 --> 0:05:34.480 Yeah, I think looking at what he just did right 0:05:34.520 --> 0:05:37.960 first fifty to fifty season in MLB history, he absolutely 0:05:38.000 --> 0:05:40.599 should be the number one player. But there are some 0:05:40.760 --> 0:05:44.119 risk factors here because he's not only returning from Tommy 0:05:44.200 --> 0:05:46.720 John surgery now as a pitcher, he's also returning from 0:05:46.839 --> 0:05:50.560 shoulder surgery that he had after the postseason. So a 0:05:50.640 --> 0:05:53.600 little bit of added risk here with Shohotani, but we 0:05:53.680 --> 0:05:56.360 realize what the upside is. It's massive, sky high. Fifty 0:05:56.400 --> 0:05:58.920 to fifty just did that last season, so I think 0:05:58.960 --> 0:06:01.839 at worst he's in the top three. I can't fault 0:06:01.839 --> 0:06:04.200 anybody who wants to take Shoheo Tani first. 0:06:04.200 --> 0:06:06.200 Overall. You mentioned a few different formats here. 0:06:06.240 --> 0:06:08.240 If you play in a daily lineup league, I know 0:06:08.279 --> 0:06:11.160 a lot of Yahoo had to head categories daily lineups 0:06:11.440 --> 0:06:14.360 Shoho Tani, if he's one player, he's the. 0:06:14.320 --> 0:06:15.880 One one, no doubt about it. 0:06:16.000 --> 0:06:18.440 If you can reap the rewards of both his hitting 0:06:18.520 --> 0:06:21.520 and pitching on a daily basis as one player, there 0:06:21.600 --> 0:06:24.320 is no doubt that he is the first overall pick 0:06:24.480 --> 0:06:26.960 in that format. Speaking of Yahoo, I think there's also 0:06:27.279 --> 0:06:28.919 I think most of their leagues, if not, you know, 0:06:29.000 --> 0:06:30.679 the default is that he's two different players. 0:06:30.880 --> 0:06:32.720 I was about to say, it's not Yahoo where you're 0:06:32.720 --> 0:06:34.159 getting that, though, Frank, that might be. 0:06:34.440 --> 0:06:35.440 It might be ESPN, right. 0:06:35.680 --> 0:06:38.839 ESPN and fan tracks both have him as one interchangeable 0:06:38.880 --> 0:06:40.880 player that you're able to do that. I mean, you 0:06:40.880 --> 0:06:43.039 guys have that on CBS as well, though. It just 0:06:43.040 --> 0:06:45.640 you have to be in a daily format, not a weekly, and. 0:06:45.680 --> 0:06:48.159 The majority of leagues on CBS are weekly formats, so 0:06:48.240 --> 0:06:50.520 I mean some people do play in a daily format. 0:06:50.680 --> 0:06:53.000 In any daily format where he's one player and you 0:06:53.000 --> 0:06:56.520 can get both, obviously, Otani is the one to one 0:06:56.760 --> 0:06:57.080 if you. 0:06:57.040 --> 0:06:59.800 Split him up. You know, DH and pitcher. I have 0:07:00.279 --> 0:07:01.880 SP thirty in my rankings. 0:07:01.920 --> 0:07:03.280 It sounds like, you know, he's not going to pitch 0:07:03.320 --> 0:07:05.800 into a couple of weeks, maybe a month into the 0:07:05.800 --> 0:07:08.960 season as he's recovering again from that shoulder surgery that 0:07:09.000 --> 0:07:11.800 he had in the off season. But when he pitches, 0:07:11.960 --> 0:07:14.480 you know, again, on a per enting basis, he could 0:07:14.560 --> 0:07:16.800 perform like a low end SP one, like a top 0:07:16.800 --> 0:07:18.920 twelve starting pitcher. It's just you're not going to get 0:07:18.920 --> 0:07:21.080 that volume. You've got to wait a little bit for him. 0:07:21.120 --> 0:07:23.640 And then even once he returns. The Dodgers likely to 0:07:23.720 --> 0:07:26.560 run a six man rotation, so absolutely no problem with 0:07:26.640 --> 0:07:29.680 him going first overall, little bit of added risk this year, 0:07:29.920 --> 0:07:32.440 but I don't think he should go any lower than 0:07:32.480 --> 0:07:34.000 the top three. It feels like to me that there's 0:07:34.160 --> 0:07:35.640 a very clear top three this season. 0:07:35.920 --> 0:07:37.200 Do you have him at one? 0:07:38.520 --> 0:07:41.400 I have in a roto leagues, I have Bobby with 0:07:41.520 --> 0:07:43.560 Junior ahead of him. It just feels a little bit safer. 0:07:43.600 --> 0:07:46.880 You're getting production across the board, don't have that added risk. 0:07:46.880 --> 0:07:48.840 He's not coming back from any surgery. I don't think 0:07:48.840 --> 0:07:50.480 the upside is as high for Bobby Witt, but the 0:07:50.520 --> 0:07:52.440 floor is higher and really in the first couple of 0:07:52.480 --> 0:07:53.680 rounds that I would just want to play it as 0:07:53.680 --> 0:07:54.440 safe as possible. 0:07:54.440 --> 0:07:56.760 To me, Bobby with Junior a little bit safer than 0:07:56.760 --> 0:07:57.480 Shoho Toney. 0:07:57.480 --> 0:07:59.440 It's very interesting. I'm going to bring up a point 0:07:59.440 --> 0:08:01.080 here in what I been saying a lot, but I 0:08:01.360 --> 0:08:03.720 was I felt like you might be insinuating that Otani 0:08:03.840 --> 0:08:08.400 is not there, Arico. The stats were ridiculous. He is positionless. 0:08:08.520 --> 0:08:10.320 There is kind of an element to this of like 0:08:10.800 --> 0:08:13.680 he wasn't pitching last year. The pitching being thrown into 0:08:13.680 --> 0:08:16.720 this does add a new, little tiny wrinkle as far 0:08:16.760 --> 0:08:19.240 as like, maybe there is some more injury risk. Is 0:08:19.280 --> 0:08:21.960 there anything positively or negatively you'd take. Maybe you bump 0:08:22.040 --> 0:08:24.360 down show Hey Otani or is he just the clear cut? 0:08:24.360 --> 0:08:26.720 It ain't even funny if you don't take him one, 0:08:26.760 --> 0:08:27.840 what's you take on Otani? 0:08:28.040 --> 0:08:30.440 So I do have him one. But if somebody did 0:08:30.440 --> 0:08:32.760 want to take Bobby with Junior, especially a volume player, 0:08:32.760 --> 0:08:34.840 if you're somebody who's more on the degenerate side like us, 0:08:34.880 --> 0:08:36.520 and you're going to play in ten or twenty leagues 0:08:36.720 --> 0:08:39.240 and you get the first overall pick five times, maybe 0:08:39.240 --> 0:08:41.160 you take show Hey three times in Bobby with Junior 0:08:41.160 --> 0:08:42.960 twice or something like that, just to mitigate some of 0:08:42.960 --> 0:08:46.000 the risk. But the format really really is so important. 0:08:46.080 --> 0:08:48.720 Like we mentioned the Yahoo, ESPN, NFBC, they're all going 0:08:48.800 --> 0:08:51.800 to be different. If you're on the NFBC, and a 0:08:51.800 --> 0:08:53.840 lot of people who are drafting to this point of 0:08:53.920 --> 0:08:57.200 the year have probably been using predominantly the NFBC rooms. 0:08:57.720 --> 0:08:59.800 You have the option to use him as a pitcher 0:09:00.160 --> 0:09:01.640 or as a hitter in a given week, and you're 0:09:01.640 --> 0:09:03.320 going to use him as a hitter the majority of 0:09:03.320 --> 0:09:06.040 the time. But there's a chance that maybe three of 0:09:06.080 --> 0:09:08.320 your pitchers get hurt and you have that luxury mid 0:09:08.360 --> 0:09:11.320 season to you show Heyotani as a pitcher, So just 0:09:11.360 --> 0:09:13.599 that extra security. On the NFBC, I think he's the 0:09:13.640 --> 0:09:16.840 clear number one there and on ESPN, Like that's just 0:09:17.040 --> 0:09:19.120 so so far and away. But if you're talking about 0:09:19.120 --> 0:09:21.360 like a Yahoo head to head league where you do 0:09:21.559 --> 0:09:23.880 just get the hitter stats versus just Bobby with Junior's 0:09:23.920 --> 0:09:26.760 hitter stats, I think it's probably a little bit closer 0:09:26.800 --> 0:09:29.480 than the average person's gonna think. Bobby with Junior was 0:09:29.720 --> 0:09:32.360 just ridiculous last year as well, Like you're talking about 0:09:32.360 --> 0:09:35.800 a thirty plus homer and stolen base season when you're 0:09:35.840 --> 0:09:38.680 hitting close to three thirty. Like, yes, it's not the 0:09:38.760 --> 0:09:41.200 same level necessarily, but he also doesn't come with that 0:09:41.280 --> 0:09:44.280 added injury risk. Our mutual friend Ariel Cohen has talked 0:09:44.280 --> 0:09:46.679 about for years, how about when Otani is pitching, it's 0:09:46.720 --> 0:09:48.599 just double the chance of him getting hurt at the 0:09:48.640 --> 0:09:51.360 plate and then on the mound. Bobby with Junior several 0:09:51.480 --> 0:09:54.360 years younger without those big injuries. So I think that 0:09:54.440 --> 0:09:56.960 you could legitimately flip a coin in a lot of cases, 0:09:56.960 --> 0:09:59.319 and it wouldn't really bother me so much whichever side 0:09:59.360 --> 0:10:01.240 you landed on it, except for those leagues where you 0:10:01.280 --> 0:10:03.280 can use him as both, like ESPN, then it's just 0:10:03.320 --> 0:10:04.880 it's a clear cut Otani number one. 0:10:06.520 --> 0:10:12.559 Looking at atc projections, Bobby Witt Junior projected thirty homers, 0:10:12.600 --> 0:10:15.280 thirty three stolen bases with a two to ninety five average, 0:10:15.280 --> 0:10:18.400 one hundred and five runs, ninety three RBI. It's elite. 0:10:18.400 --> 0:10:21.600 It's a lead of elite Otani forty one homers, thirty 0:10:21.600 --> 0:10:24.559 four stolen bases, so both in favor of him more 0:10:24.640 --> 0:10:28.319 runs more RBIs one hundred and thirteen runs, one hundred 0:10:28.320 --> 0:10:31.640 and three RBIs, batting average two seventy five. Otani takes 0:10:31.840 --> 0:10:35.120 four of the five categories from a projection standpoint comparative 0:10:35.160 --> 0:10:37.959 to Bobby Witt. He does not have a position that 0:10:38.000 --> 0:10:40.280 goes in favor of Bobby Witt. Maybe the pitching makes 0:10:40.280 --> 0:10:43.199 people feel a little bit squeamish about it. 0:10:43.200 --> 0:10:44.080 It does show. 0:10:43.920 --> 0:10:46.760 Up in the ranks, It does show up a tiny 0:10:46.760 --> 0:10:49.640 bit because the best ranking. There are only two players 0:10:49.679 --> 0:10:51.960 on the ranks right now that have a number one overall. 0:10:52.040 --> 0:10:54.760 It is Otani and Bobby Witt. They both have a 0:10:54.800 --> 0:10:57.720 low though of three on the consensus rank, so they 0:10:57.760 --> 0:11:01.240 both have pushed down in that three spot. That leads 0:11:01.280 --> 0:11:03.640 to another question. So we look at the ranks here 0:11:03.760 --> 0:11:06.800 and the ADP also represented is representative of it because 0:11:06.840 --> 0:11:09.520 we're talking about all of the rankers that are ranking well. 0:11:09.520 --> 0:11:12.200 If you move to average draft position, we've already got 0:11:12.320 --> 0:11:16.439 data from ESPN, Yahoo's, CBS, NFBC, I think fan tracks 0:11:16.520 --> 0:11:18.560 is on there and we're already seeing some of that. 0:11:19.440 --> 0:11:23.000 Their top four is representative of what our rank top 0:11:23.040 --> 0:11:26.320 four is. So here is the question is it a 0:11:26.440 --> 0:11:29.400 top four or is it a top three? Those players 0:11:29.400 --> 0:11:31.960 are show Heyotani, Bobby Wit, Aaron Judge, and Ellie day 0:11:32.000 --> 0:11:34.120 La Cruz. And the thing that I have thrown out 0:11:34.160 --> 0:11:36.800 a lot is there's kind of a flavor for everybody. 0:11:36.920 --> 0:11:39.439 If you want all of the big stats with no position, 0:11:39.760 --> 0:11:43.240 it's Otani. If you want all of the stats that 0:11:43.280 --> 0:11:46.000 are just smaller than Otani, it's Bobby Witt, maybe a 0:11:46.000 --> 0:11:47.800 little bit more average. If you want all the power 0:11:47.800 --> 0:11:50.360 in the world, it's Aaron Judge the fourth. If you 0:11:50.360 --> 0:11:52.240 want all the stolen bases in the world, it's Ellie 0:11:52.280 --> 0:11:55.520 day La Cruz. Not everybody feels as positive about Ellie, 0:11:55.520 --> 0:11:57.360 and when I say is it the top three or four, 0:11:57.480 --> 0:11:59.840 I'm really kind of referring to Ellie because some do 0:12:00.080 --> 0:12:02.800 and don't put him in that position. Mister frank sample, 0:12:03.080 --> 0:12:05.320 is it a top three tier or does it go 0:12:05.400 --> 0:12:06.000 to four for you? 0:12:06.640 --> 0:12:07.760 What a fraud? 0:12:07.960 --> 0:12:10.520 I am here on a podcast wearing in Ellie day 0:12:10.559 --> 0:12:14.080 La Cruz Jersey. Oh no, And it is not a 0:12:14.200 --> 0:12:16.280 clear top four in my opinion, I think it's a 0:12:16.400 --> 0:12:19.360 very clear top three. We mentioned Otani, Bobby Witt, and 0:12:19.600 --> 0:12:23.480 Aaron Judge. Obviously, Judge amazing batting average power counting stat 0:12:23.520 --> 0:12:26.080 should be awesome. Some people have labeled him injury prone. 0:12:26.120 --> 0:12:28.120 I think early on in his career that made sense. 0:12:28.160 --> 0:12:29.960 But a couple of years ago he got hurt. He 0:12:30.360 --> 0:12:33.000 like fractured his toe in Dodger Stadium in kind of 0:12:33.000 --> 0:12:35.560 like a freak accident. So I don't really think that 0:12:35.640 --> 0:12:37.760 Aaron Judge is injury prone. I would be willing to 0:12:37.840 --> 0:12:40.480 use a top three pick on him. Elid the Cruz 0:12:40.480 --> 0:12:42.920 I don't think is a clear number four. In fact, 0:12:42.920 --> 0:12:46.280 I have him eighth overall in my rankings, and it's 0:12:46.440 --> 0:12:49.040 just the way that I typically like to build my 0:12:49.160 --> 0:12:53.400 Rodo category teams. Steals are much more plentiful in the 0:12:53.440 --> 0:12:57.640 middle to late rounds versus batting average and power. I 0:12:57.679 --> 0:12:59.640 feel like those are much harder to find as the 0:13:00.120 --> 0:13:03.680 draft goes along here, and you know someone like Jose 0:13:03.800 --> 0:13:06.280 Ermirez is going to provide more power obviously across the 0:13:06.280 --> 0:13:08.599 board production, or someone like Juan Soto is going to 0:13:08.640 --> 0:13:12.240 provide more power, Someone like Kyle Tucker more batting average 0:13:12.280 --> 0:13:14.679 and more power than Ellie de la Cruz. I think 0:13:14.679 --> 0:13:17.720 you could say the same thing for Gunnar Henderson. So 0:13:17.760 --> 0:13:19.800 those are the names that I have ahead of Ellie 0:13:19.800 --> 0:13:21.600 de la Cruz this year. And the fact that if 0:13:21.640 --> 0:13:23.960 you build your team around him being the steel source, 0:13:24.400 --> 0:13:27.120 if at any point he does get hurt, that is 0:13:27.160 --> 0:13:29.560 just a huge chunk of your expected steels that you 0:13:29.600 --> 0:13:30.640 are going to be missing for. 0:13:30.600 --> 0:13:33.880 A period of time. So I love the player. He's electric. 0:13:33.960 --> 0:13:35.960 I think he's a first round pick, and especially if 0:13:36.000 --> 0:13:37.559 you play in a points league where you lose points 0:13:37.559 --> 0:13:39.960 for strikeouts, he does get dinged a little bit in 0:13:40.000 --> 0:13:41.079 that format as well. 0:13:41.440 --> 0:13:43.520 But yeah, not part of a clear top four for me. 0:13:44.040 --> 0:13:47.440 Probably safe to maybe have even given people a marker 0:13:47.760 --> 0:13:49.679 is a little bit more head to head roto conversation. 0:13:49.760 --> 0:13:52.200 This is a little less points. I agree with this. 0:13:52.280 --> 0:13:54.679 I would ding him in a points league. I am 0:13:54.720 --> 0:13:57.720 aggressive though in in a roto and head format, and 0:13:57.720 --> 0:14:00.000 I do agree there are steals that are more plentiful 0:14:00.080 --> 0:14:02.679 across the board. But I also don't see it as 0:14:02.679 --> 0:14:04.640 empty steals. I see it as the elite of elite 0:14:04.720 --> 0:14:08.520 stolen bases. He's hitting for power. He upped his barrel percentage, 0:14:08.800 --> 0:14:11.680 I mean twelve percent. It was from eight percent elite levels. 0:14:11.679 --> 0:14:14.160 Hard hits elite, but he still does strike out a lot. 0:14:14.280 --> 0:14:17.240 But he is a monster. But the monster is like, 0:14:17.600 --> 0:14:19.960 are you really truly getting the five categories? And that's 0:14:19.960 --> 0:14:22.800 where that pushes back. I will also say on the 0:14:22.920 --> 0:14:26.000 ranks for the consensus rankers, Ellie has a high of three, 0:14:26.160 --> 0:14:28.880 He's got a low of eight one. Soto is also 0:14:28.920 --> 0:14:30.520 one of those guys that has a high of three, 0:14:30.600 --> 0:14:32.600 So there is some variance there, But there are people 0:14:32.640 --> 0:14:35.400 that are going to put Sodo above. Format might change 0:14:35.880 --> 0:14:38.680 Arico kind of same thing, just with Ellie. Is it 0:14:38.720 --> 0:14:41.400 at all a top three? Is it only a top three? 0:14:41.520 --> 0:14:43.800 Is it a top four? Does he is he involved? 0:14:43.840 --> 0:14:44.640 Is it a top five? 0:14:44.760 --> 0:14:44.920 One? 0:14:45.040 --> 0:14:46.840 Soto what is your thought on Ellie being a part 0:14:46.840 --> 0:14:47.360 of that group. 0:14:48.280 --> 0:14:50.600 I don't think he is. I don't think he should be. 0:14:50.920 --> 0:14:53.000 And this might be because I'm more of a sucker 0:14:53.040 --> 0:14:55.840 for batting average as every year goes by. I'm looking 0:14:55.880 --> 0:14:58.880 to really build a stable floor of two eighty plus 0:14:58.920 --> 0:15:00.600 hitters in the first couple round. And if you look 0:15:00.840 --> 0:15:03.280 by ADP of the other hitters going in the first round, 0:15:03.840 --> 0:15:07.000 just by ATC's projections, two eighty six, two ninety five, 0:15:07.080 --> 0:15:10.000 two eighty two, two seventy five, two seventy, two seventy five, 0:15:10.040 --> 0:15:12.440 two seventy eight, and then we have two fifty three 0:15:12.440 --> 0:15:15.720 with La de la Cruz, And well, yeah, that's a 0:15:15.720 --> 0:15:17.640 lot better than we were probably expecting a year ago. 0:15:17.720 --> 0:15:19.200 If you set a year ago, all he's going to 0:15:19.200 --> 0:15:20.480 be a two to fifty hitter. We're all going to 0:15:20.520 --> 0:15:24.040 take that. But comparatively speaking, it is a bit of 0:15:24.040 --> 0:15:25.480 a drop off. And then once you get out of 0:15:25.520 --> 0:15:28.320 that first round to find more guys who are going 0:15:28.360 --> 0:15:30.640 to give you the six hundred plus played appearance projection 0:15:30.800 --> 0:15:34.160 with a high batting average, they really go very very quickly. 0:15:34.240 --> 0:15:38.040 So unless you are making a dedicated plan to go 0:15:38.280 --> 0:15:41.640 for guys like Freddie Freeman. Throughout the draft. Maybe you 0:15:41.640 --> 0:15:44.400 can get merrill. You know, there's certain guys where you 0:15:44.440 --> 0:15:47.000 can target batting average. But that's a really huge thing 0:15:47.040 --> 0:15:49.040 for me. And even though the steels are great, Frankie 0:15:49.080 --> 0:15:51.360 said it, you can get steals later on. You don't 0:15:51.440 --> 0:15:55.280 need to get sixty projected steals fifty five sixty projected 0:15:55.280 --> 0:15:57.320 steals in the first round when you can get several 0:15:57.360 --> 0:16:00.800 guys going really through. I'm just looking buy ADP. Even 0:16:00.800 --> 0:16:02.600 if you're getting to like the one hundredth roughly one 0:16:02.640 --> 0:16:05.280 hundredth batter or so, you're still finding guys who are 0:16:05.320 --> 0:16:08.320 going to be projected into twenty to twenty five steel range. 0:16:08.360 --> 0:16:10.440 They're not a sexy players, but you can make up 0:16:10.440 --> 0:16:13.160 that production. I'd rather build a solid five category floor 0:16:13.200 --> 0:16:15.680 anchored by batting average than take Ellie in the top five. 0:16:15.720 --> 0:16:17.720 But I think he is a first round player, no question. 0:16:19.000 --> 0:16:20.760 So okay, well good, I mean, I don't even think 0:16:20.800 --> 0:16:22.200 that was a question. But you know what, maybe that 0:16:22.240 --> 0:16:24.480 does float out there at least in the ranks. He 0:16:24.600 --> 0:16:26.360 still is in that spot. Again, I do want to 0:16:26.400 --> 0:16:30.360 point out Ellie is technically for the eightyp's a little 0:16:30.360 --> 0:16:32.360 mess up because it's got like the pitcher side. He 0:16:32.480 --> 0:16:35.560 is fourth across the board, though ESPN. I want to 0:16:35.560 --> 0:16:38.640 point out he is twenty seven in ADP, so he's 0:16:38.720 --> 0:16:43.280 like five in YAHOO five and CBS four in NFBC, 0:16:43.440 --> 0:16:46.120 twenty seven in ESPN. So I guess there is some variants. 0:16:46.400 --> 0:16:47.840 You bring up an interesting point when you guys are 0:16:47.840 --> 0:16:49.680 talking about some of these other players that might make 0:16:49.800 --> 0:16:53.080 more sense when you look at the first round so 0:16:53.240 --> 0:16:56.960 littered with what outfielders and shortstops and like a little 0:16:56.960 --> 0:16:59.720 sprinkling of a pitcher we'll talk about. Except there's this 0:16:59.760 --> 0:17:02.280 one needle in the haystack that keeps poking at you. 0:17:02.440 --> 0:17:05.359 That needle is Jose Ramirez. Ro Jose Ramirez is that 0:17:05.520 --> 0:17:09.320 non shortstop outfield position player who put up essentially a 0:17:09.320 --> 0:17:12.280 forty forty season. He always does it. He's a monster 0:17:12.359 --> 0:17:15.479 in there. Do we at all think that there is 0:17:15.640 --> 0:17:19.119 some extra point that should be given, an extra value 0:17:19.200 --> 0:17:21.280 for a guy like Jose Ramirez who is consistent as 0:17:21.320 --> 0:17:24.040 can be. They've made the left handed hitter right field 0:17:24.080 --> 0:17:26.199