1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:13,040 Speaker 1: Ye. Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane 2 00:00:13,480 --> 00:00:17,560 Speaker 1: Jay Lee. We bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, 3 00:00:18,000 --> 00:00:23,520 Speaker 1: and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, 4 00:00:23,600 --> 00:00:33,680 Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com, and of course on the Bloomberg Tom 5 00:00:33,800 --> 00:00:37,280 Speaker 1: Kane joining me in London today, I'm still in New 6 00:00:37,360 --> 00:00:39,279 Speaker 1: York and joining us around a table in New York 7 00:00:39,360 --> 00:00:42,159 Speaker 1: City is yemen On around here is a Bloomberg senior 8 00:00:42,320 --> 00:00:44,440 Speaker 1: writer and he joined us now in the Bank of 9 00:00:44,479 --> 00:00:47,720 Speaker 1: America results, what do we say, yamen? Um? Well, you know, 10 00:00:47,800 --> 00:00:51,920 Speaker 1: we we're all looking at tax numbers. That's what everybody 11 00:00:51,960 --> 00:00:54,720 Speaker 1: is curious about. So they're the one time charged them 12 00:00:55,120 --> 00:00:58,960 Speaker 1: that they took on three billion roughly UM is in 13 00:00:59,000 --> 00:01:01,040 Speaker 1: line with what they said for so that there was 14 00:01:01,080 --> 00:01:03,320 Speaker 1: no surprise there. We you know, there was some concern 15 00:01:03,400 --> 00:01:05,880 Speaker 1: that they could add more stuff because there's you know, 16 00:01:06,040 --> 00:01:09,080 Speaker 1: repatriation tax as well as d T A s UM, 17 00:01:09,120 --> 00:01:12,040 Speaker 1: so there's no surprise there. UM. I couldn't find the 18 00:01:12,319 --> 00:01:15,720 Speaker 1: number for their effective tax rate going forward UM this 19 00:01:15,880 --> 00:01:18,440 Speaker 1: for this year two thousand eighteen. Most of the banks 20 00:01:18,480 --> 00:01:22,560 Speaker 1: have given that number. UH reporting so far, UM maybe 21 00:01:22,640 --> 00:01:25,640 Speaker 1: they will during the call with analysts and and and 22 00:01:25,720 --> 00:01:28,959 Speaker 1: durals later, But I didn't see quickly when I did 23 00:01:28,959 --> 00:01:30,880 Speaker 1: a search for a tax. So so we're looking for 24 00:01:30,920 --> 00:01:34,400 Speaker 1: that number because that's roughly you know, usually around you know, 25 00:01:34,720 --> 00:01:37,160 Speaker 1: effective tax rates for these banks, the biggest banks have 26 00:01:37,200 --> 00:01:40,440 Speaker 1: been around thirty percent. Uh. They pay much higher than 27 00:01:40,520 --> 00:01:43,640 Speaker 1: most other industries, um, because they don't have as many deductions. 28 00:01:43,840 --> 00:01:46,720 Speaker 1: So we're gonna look for that number that I don't 29 00:01:46,720 --> 00:01:49,400 Speaker 1: see it yet. It's going to be ninety one and 30 00:01:49,600 --> 00:01:52,680 Speaker 1: around there. Um, you know, their fixed income number is 31 00:01:52,720 --> 00:01:55,000 Speaker 1: really good. Um, what I'm looking at the numbers now, Yeah, 32 00:01:55,080 --> 00:01:57,760 Speaker 1: at one point seven one billion dollars the estimate with 33 00:01:57,880 --> 00:02:01,920 Speaker 1: one point six five better and estimates right, so you 34 00:02:01,960 --> 00:02:04,240 Speaker 1: know that's one of the area is trading. Trading is 35 00:02:04,280 --> 00:02:07,720 Speaker 1: important for these big big guys and and um they're 36 00:02:08,000 --> 00:02:11,320 Speaker 1: you know, trading has been has been down um this 37 00:02:11,400 --> 00:02:15,320 Speaker 1: year every quarter almost um so. So Bank of America 38 00:02:15,400 --> 00:02:18,239 Speaker 1: seems to have done better than its rivals in that front, 39 00:02:18,600 --> 00:02:22,480 Speaker 1: um not losing as much. You know, trading revenue on 40 00:02:22,560 --> 00:02:25,520 Speaker 1: fixed income is very important. And and equities same thing. 41 00:02:25,639 --> 00:02:28,880 Speaker 1: It's it's uh um unchanged from a year ago. That's 42 00:02:28,919 --> 00:02:31,840 Speaker 1: really that's really good. So they're so they're doing better 43 00:02:31,840 --> 00:02:34,840 Speaker 1: on that. UM. I was looking at their loans. Loans 44 00:02:34,880 --> 00:02:38,560 Speaker 1: are growing still, UM and that's you know, that's very important. 45 00:02:38,600 --> 00:02:42,920 Speaker 1: They growing loans constantly. It's slowed down, it's not as 46 00:02:43,000 --> 00:02:44,680 Speaker 1: fast as it used to be, but but it's growing. 47 00:02:44,680 --> 00:02:47,680 Speaker 1: So they're they're doing and their net income numbers really good. Tom. 48 00:02:47,680 --> 00:02:50,239 Speaker 1: The numbers coming through from Bank America looking pretty solid, 49 00:02:50,240 --> 00:02:53,800 Speaker 1: inline with estimates. Some single name issues stein Off popping 50 00:02:53,880 --> 00:02:56,040 Speaker 1: up once again. But the tanks impact is something that 51 00:02:56,080 --> 00:02:58,520 Speaker 1: we're all kind of sort of trying to filter through 52 00:02:58,680 --> 00:03:01,720 Speaker 1: and understand. Going through into I'd say, to me, it's 53 00:03:01,720 --> 00:03:03,960 Speaker 1: almost old news now. It's like a kitchen sind quarter 54 00:03:04,040 --> 00:03:06,360 Speaker 1: and the unions come out, folks, and trust me, there's 55 00:03:06,400 --> 00:03:09,800 Speaker 1: pages and pages and even a grizzled pro like Yoman 56 00:03:09,880 --> 00:03:13,000 Speaker 1: Honor in his trouble looking at these things. What's the 57 00:03:13,160 --> 00:03:16,640 Speaker 1: plan Yaman for the first, the second, the third in 58 00:03:16,680 --> 00:03:20,560 Speaker 1: the fourth quarter of two thousand eighteen, what's the strategy 59 00:03:20,680 --> 00:03:25,359 Speaker 1: they're strategizing when they strategize at these big banks. I mean, 60 00:03:25,440 --> 00:03:27,960 Speaker 1: I think after the tax informed that they have to 61 00:03:28,040 --> 00:03:30,080 Speaker 1: think about some of the things that that that they've 62 00:03:30,120 --> 00:03:33,440 Speaker 1: been doing, um constantly. What one of them was, they 63 00:03:33,480 --> 00:03:37,920 Speaker 1: had very strict goals for cutting costs. Um, maybe they 64 00:03:37,920 --> 00:03:39,960 Speaker 1: can relax those some You know, there are a lot 65 00:03:40,000 --> 00:03:41,760 Speaker 1: of banks have come out with saying, you know, we're 66 00:03:41,760 --> 00:03:46,360 Speaker 1: gonna give one time increases to our bonuses to our employees, 67 00:03:46,360 --> 00:03:48,560 Speaker 1: the Bank of America being one of them. And you know, 68 00:03:48,920 --> 00:03:52,360 Speaker 1: so maybe they don't have to cut costs as harshly 69 00:03:52,440 --> 00:03:56,200 Speaker 1: because oh, look they have this wonderful tax bonus which 70 00:03:56,240 --> 00:03:58,320 Speaker 1: is going to really help the bottom line. Um. You know, 71 00:03:58,360 --> 00:04:00,760 Speaker 1: as I said, if you go down from twenty nine 72 00:04:00,800 --> 00:04:04,520 Speaker 1: percent effective rate to nineteen percent effect the rate, that's great. 73 00:04:04,600 --> 00:04:07,000 Speaker 1: You know you chopped off one third of your or 74 00:04:07,400 --> 00:04:10,160 Speaker 1: if your tax so you can keep that, which means 75 00:04:10,360 --> 00:04:13,360 Speaker 1: you can you don't have to cut costs as harshly. 76 00:04:13,400 --> 00:04:16,120 Speaker 1: You know, you can actually relax a little bit and say, oh, okay, 77 00:04:16,160 --> 00:04:19,040 Speaker 1: we we you know, we can actually make more profit. Yeah, 78 00:04:19,200 --> 00:04:20,920 Speaker 1: and thank you for telling me to buy shares at 79 00:04:20,920 --> 00:04:24,200 Speaker 1: thirteen dollars. Bank of America moonshot out of this fourth 80 00:04:24,240 --> 00:04:28,000 Speaker 1: of July cash leverage DTS. I am in the double 81 00:04:28,080 --> 00:04:30,320 Speaker 1: leverage all cash from trust me y'a. I'm an honoring 82 00:04:30,400 --> 00:04:33,640 Speaker 1: with us and he will return for Golden Sachs Drama 83 00:04:33,720 --> 00:04:35,920 Speaker 1: at seven thirty this morning, right now in the global 84 00:04:36,000 --> 00:04:39,600 Speaker 1: drama of our global economy, Jennet Henry with us. So 85 00:04:39,720 --> 00:04:42,359 Speaker 1: they just bc joining us in our London studio for 86 00:04:42,440 --> 00:04:46,360 Speaker 1: too short visit house Investment. We were talking about consumption 87 00:04:46,440 --> 00:04:50,400 Speaker 1: earlier in that with the tax legislation in the United States, 88 00:04:50,480 --> 00:04:53,159 Speaker 1: with the effervescence we're seeing out there every day, do 89 00:04:53,240 --> 00:04:58,600 Speaker 1: you actually see capital investment nation to nation? Jenna, We 90 00:04:58,720 --> 00:05:00,920 Speaker 1: do you see some improvement in investment? I mean, there 91 00:05:00,920 --> 00:05:03,640 Speaker 1: has been some pick up already in two thousand and seventeen, 92 00:05:03,760 --> 00:05:06,280 Speaker 1: but it's been a familiar story. It's been energy and 93 00:05:06,320 --> 00:05:08,960 Speaker 1: tech investment. There is a bit more incentive now to 94 00:05:09,040 --> 00:05:12,360 Speaker 1: invest more, both with the repatriation and with the tax cuts, 95 00:05:13,000 --> 00:05:15,080 Speaker 1: but most likely a lot of the games from that 96 00:05:15,120 --> 00:05:17,320 Speaker 1: will as is often the case, I mean, the money's 97 00:05:17,800 --> 00:05:21,359 Speaker 1: shareholders or to M and A UM and any improvement 98 00:05:21,360 --> 00:05:24,320 Speaker 1: and fixed investment is likely to be relatively modest. Janne 99 00:05:24,360 --> 00:05:26,880 Speaker 1: Henry Larry Fink. Running to some of the world's biggest 100 00:05:26,920 --> 00:05:29,520 Speaker 1: CEO is of course to boss over a black rock 101 00:05:29,640 --> 00:05:33,160 Speaker 1: and pushing them to invest more in the future, Can 102 00:05:33,160 --> 00:05:36,440 Speaker 1: the like Selary think, really push these CEOs to do 103 00:05:36,520 --> 00:05:38,280 Speaker 1: something they haven't done in a material way over the 104 00:05:38,360 --> 00:05:41,599 Speaker 1: last couple of years. Uh No. I mean the biggest 105 00:05:41,640 --> 00:05:45,719 Speaker 1: determinant of investment spending is expected future demand. And I 106 00:05:45,720 --> 00:05:48,400 Speaker 1: think also the outlook for investment will depend on what 107 00:05:48,520 --> 00:05:50,920 Speaker 1: happens to labor. Now, you know, we can talk about 108 00:05:50,920 --> 00:05:53,240 Speaker 1: Philip's curve, but the fact is this has been a 109 00:05:53,320 --> 00:05:56,800 Speaker 1: very job rich recovery, arguably because labor has been so cheap. 110 00:05:57,120 --> 00:05:59,560 Speaker 1: If we see some signs that wage growth is picking 111 00:05:59,640 --> 00:06:01,599 Speaker 1: up a little a bit more, if companies are getting 112 00:06:01,640 --> 00:06:05,280 Speaker 1: more confident about the outlook for future demand, that's likely 113 00:06:05,320 --> 00:06:08,880 Speaker 1: to be the bigger driver of future investment spending and 114 00:06:08,960 --> 00:06:12,320 Speaker 1: hopefully stronger productivity growth because we've seen such low investment 115 00:06:12,360 --> 00:06:16,600 Speaker 1: growth rather than being told to invest more or necessarily 116 00:06:16,640 --> 00:06:19,000 Speaker 1: given tax incentives, which may as I say, just go 117 00:06:19,040 --> 00:06:21,440 Speaker 1: into M and A or or ento higher dividends. So, Jannet, 118 00:06:21,480 --> 00:06:25,360 Speaker 1: you raise a really important point. If the investment prospects 119 00:06:25,440 --> 00:06:29,279 Speaker 1: for the CEOs are based on future demand, then what 120 00:06:29,320 --> 00:06:31,360 Speaker 1: does it say about their belief in future demand that 121 00:06:31,360 --> 00:06:33,760 Speaker 1: they've been choosing a buyback stock and increased dividends and 122 00:06:33,800 --> 00:06:38,120 Speaker 1: not invest for the future. World shareholders haven't necessarily punished 123 00:06:38,160 --> 00:06:41,560 Speaker 1: them for that, but for not investing for the longer term. 124 00:06:41,640 --> 00:06:44,839 Speaker 1: And there have been a series of uncertainties over the 125 00:06:44,880 --> 00:06:48,680 Speaker 1: last few years politically, um and you know, in terms 126 00:06:48,680 --> 00:06:52,880 Speaker 1: of monetary tightening and and various other factors around the world. 127 00:06:53,000 --> 00:06:56,000 Speaker 1: But I would argue that the still relatively low level 128 00:06:56,080 --> 00:06:59,479 Speaker 1: of investment growth relative to GDP growth would suggest that 129 00:06:59,520 --> 00:07:01,960 Speaker 1: they are still or just not more confident enough. But 130 00:07:02,240 --> 00:07:05,120 Speaker 1: growth expectations are being revised, which is why we might 131 00:07:05,160 --> 00:07:09,239 Speaker 1: just see a little bit more dove till your HSBC 132 00:07:09,320 --> 00:07:14,120 Speaker 1: economics was Steve Major's hall where he was brilliant for 133 00:07:14,200 --> 00:07:17,080 Speaker 1: two years or so on low interest rates. And we've 134 00:07:17,120 --> 00:07:19,560 Speaker 1: now come up and Steve has always said we could 135 00:07:19,600 --> 00:07:25,240 Speaker 1: come up and yield, but dovetail that HSBC reticence away 136 00:07:25,280 --> 00:07:28,400 Speaker 1: from higher yields. Do you shift that? Are you? In 137 00:07:28,520 --> 00:07:32,920 Speaker 1: Steven speaking terms? How does that work? Steve's view is 138 00:07:33,040 --> 00:07:36,480 Speaker 1: very has very strong foundations in our economic view and 139 00:07:36,520 --> 00:07:38,760 Speaker 1: has for a very long time. Jenny Tom, he's just 140 00:07:38,760 --> 00:07:42,920 Speaker 1: trying to call problems HSBC. Don't worry, no, it's we've 141 00:07:43,040 --> 00:07:45,200 Speaker 1: very much been in the low inflation Camp and we 142 00:07:45,240 --> 00:07:47,440 Speaker 1: think a lot of these influences are structural. I think 143 00:07:47,440 --> 00:07:50,200 Speaker 1: the difficulty with markets is that their mind set is 144 00:07:50,240 --> 00:07:53,640 Speaker 1: still framed in the views of the nineteen seventies, eighties, nineties, 145 00:07:53,640 --> 00:07:57,800 Speaker 1: and two thousands, where it's all about nominal growth and inflation. 146 00:07:58,080 --> 00:08:02,320 Speaker 1: And actually we had extended periods before that when actually 147 00:08:02,320 --> 00:08:05,000 Speaker 1: long term interest rates for little or no relationship to 148 00:08:05,160 --> 00:08:08,680 Speaker 1: nominal GDP growth. We'd only see high yields if we 149 00:08:08,720 --> 00:08:12,520 Speaker 1: saw much much higher in put and potential very quickly, Janet, 150 00:08:12,520 --> 00:08:15,520 Speaker 1: that goes to potential GDP and productivity. As you just said, 151 00:08:15,640 --> 00:08:20,240 Speaker 1: where's potential GDP in the US sub two percent? Right? Yeah, absolutely, 152 00:08:20,240 --> 00:08:24,120 Speaker 1: I think it is sub just amazing, Jennet, never enough time. 153 00:08:24,160 --> 00:08:27,800 Speaker 1: Thank you so much, Henry, thank you. With HSBC today 154 00:08:27,840 --> 00:08:30,480 Speaker 1: they're they're head of Global Economics. Wonderful to ever in 155 00:08:30,520 --> 00:08:46,880 Speaker 1: with us. John Farrell, New York. I'm Tom keenan London. 156 00:08:46,880 --> 00:08:49,680 Speaker 1: Of course, everybody looking at the fourteen different stories coming 157 00:08:49,679 --> 00:08:54,640 Speaker 1: out of Washington. Any number of ways to tackle the 158 00:08:54,720 --> 00:08:58,360 Speaker 1: Wednesday events in Washington. John H. Deck is at Brookings 159 00:08:58,400 --> 00:09:01,560 Speaker 1: Institution where he tackles the bigger picture, the longer picture, 160 00:09:02,000 --> 00:09:05,520 Speaker 1: a really interesting book three or four years ago, Presidential Park, 161 00:09:05,640 --> 00:09:08,840 Speaker 1: just about the actual way that money moves around Washington. 162 00:09:08,920 --> 00:09:12,520 Speaker 1: He's been looking recently at how the two parties are 163 00:09:12,559 --> 00:09:17,600 Speaker 1: responding into two thousand eighteen and two thousand and nineteen. John, 164 00:09:17,679 --> 00:09:21,400 Speaker 1: Let's look back quickly here. How did the Democrats lose 165 00:09:21,520 --> 00:09:25,760 Speaker 1: the demock the traditional Democrat voter in states like Michigan 166 00:09:26,120 --> 00:09:30,319 Speaker 1: in Wisconsin. Well, I think what a lot of voters 167 00:09:30,480 --> 00:09:34,559 Speaker 1: in those rust belt states saw was an economy over 168 00:09:34,600 --> 00:09:38,160 Speaker 1: eight years that was recovering but was largely leaving them behind. 169 00:09:38,400 --> 00:09:41,360 Speaker 1: Either they were not getting new jobs, or they were 170 00:09:41,360 --> 00:09:44,200 Speaker 1: not getting jobs that were paying as well, or was 171 00:09:44,280 --> 00:09:46,960 Speaker 1: the stable as the ones that they lost during the 172 00:09:47,040 --> 00:09:51,160 Speaker 1: Great Recession. And that built up some frustration, um from 173 00:09:51,200 --> 00:09:54,960 Speaker 1: some frustration with the Obama administration and with Democrats. And 174 00:09:55,080 --> 00:09:58,440 Speaker 1: Donald Trump very effectively spoke to those voters and told 175 00:09:58,480 --> 00:10:01,560 Speaker 1: them essentially the old Bill Clinton line, I feel your 176 00:10:01,600 --> 00:10:03,960 Speaker 1: pain and I'm going to help you. Well, where are 177 00:10:04,000 --> 00:10:06,360 Speaker 1: those Democrats now? Are they've been pushed about? I mean, 178 00:10:06,440 --> 00:10:09,439 Speaker 1: I mean to go to the stereotypes. Are the progressive 179 00:10:09,559 --> 00:10:14,679 Speaker 1: eastern left coast? Are progressive ultraliberals? Are they going to 180 00:10:14,760 --> 00:10:17,520 Speaker 1: be in charge or can there be not a new 181 00:10:17,600 --> 00:10:19,959 Speaker 1: Democratic party, but maybe one that looks a little bit 182 00:10:20,000 --> 00:10:24,400 Speaker 1: like it look years ago. Well, it's it's an interesting mix, right. 183 00:10:24,520 --> 00:10:28,679 Speaker 1: So you have obviously a Democratic party that's turning, uh 184 00:10:28,880 --> 00:10:33,640 Speaker 1: strongly toward progressivism, and with that comes some social issues 185 00:10:33,720 --> 00:10:37,480 Speaker 1: that can turn off moderate Democrats. But at the same time, 186 00:10:38,000 --> 00:10:42,359 Speaker 1: these progressive Democrats are also talking about issues like healthcare, 187 00:10:42,520 --> 00:10:48,359 Speaker 1: like uh, increasing the minimum wage, like helping retrain workers 188 00:10:48,440 --> 00:10:51,960 Speaker 1: who have had industries sort of taken out from under them. 189 00:10:52,320 --> 00:10:55,439 Speaker 1: And those are the types of messages that those voters 190 00:10:55,480 --> 00:10:58,600 Speaker 1: want to hear ultimately, and if they can convince uh, 191 00:10:58,600 --> 00:11:01,200 Speaker 1: those voters that they're actually going to do something about it, 192 00:11:01,240 --> 00:11:03,320 Speaker 1: they can win them back. I want to go back 193 00:11:03,320 --> 00:11:06,840 Speaker 1: to your wheelhouse book, Presidential Park. Does this president believe 194 00:11:06,880 --> 00:11:11,520 Speaker 1: in pork? Oh? Absolutely, every president believes in pork, but 195 00:11:11,720 --> 00:11:15,640 Speaker 1: that president does as well. Um, this president does as well. 196 00:11:15,760 --> 00:11:20,120 Speaker 1: So we're seeing this not necessarily in the allocation of funds, 197 00:11:20,160 --> 00:11:22,760 Speaker 1: although there is some evidence of that, but in terms 198 00:11:22,920 --> 00:11:28,160 Speaker 1: of how tax policy is playing out, with issues such 199 00:11:28,240 --> 00:11:31,960 Speaker 1: as where to drill offshore in the United States, the 200 00:11:31,960 --> 00:11:35,080 Speaker 1: president is very sensitive to what swing states want and 201 00:11:35,120 --> 00:11:38,280 Speaker 1: to what Republican States want, Well, what's you're reading on infrastructure? 202 00:11:38,280 --> 00:11:41,080 Speaker 1: Brook insist on great work over the years on transportation 203 00:11:41,200 --> 00:11:45,560 Speaker 1: and infrastructure. Is the infrastructure story of the next ninety 204 00:11:45,640 --> 00:11:48,560 Speaker 1: days maybe days? Is it gonna be the same old, 205 00:11:48,600 --> 00:11:51,280 Speaker 1: same old bridges to nowhere? Or can we actually get 206 00:11:51,360 --> 00:11:56,480 Speaker 1: JFK Terminal one fixed? Well? I think the President is 207 00:11:56,720 --> 00:11:59,440 Speaker 1: well positioned to understand that there are a lot of 208 00:11:59,480 --> 00:12:02,600 Speaker 1: needs in this country and he does want by all accounts, 209 00:12:02,640 --> 00:12:09,960 Speaker 1: a pretty comprehensive infrastructure bill. And John, why can't we 210 00:12:10,320 --> 00:12:13,440 Speaker 1: get that done? I get this everywhere I travel, even 211 00:12:13,440 --> 00:12:16,880 Speaker 1: in London. I get this from people in America. Why 212 00:12:16,920 --> 00:12:21,040 Speaker 1: can't we fix this? I mean, it's totally unacceptable. This 213 00:12:21,080 --> 00:12:24,640 Speaker 1: is a situation in which there are conservatives and Congress 214 00:12:24,760 --> 00:12:27,760 Speaker 1: who do not want to spend government funds UM. They 215 00:12:27,840 --> 00:12:30,280 Speaker 1: don't think that there is going to be an economic 216 00:12:30,320 --> 00:12:33,479 Speaker 1: stimulative effect. They didn't think the stimulus had a stimulative 217 00:12:33,520 --> 00:12:36,880 Speaker 1: effect UM, and they just don't buy that that type 218 00:12:36,920 --> 00:12:40,920 Speaker 1: of economics UM works. And the reality as we know 219 00:12:41,000 --> 00:12:43,720 Speaker 1: it does and we know, regardless of how much money 220 00:12:43,720 --> 00:12:47,240 Speaker 1: it pumps into the economy, we also have a crumbling infrastructure. 221 00:12:47,320 --> 00:12:49,920 Speaker 1: So beyond all of the economic arguments. There's just a 222 00:12:49,960 --> 00:12:53,320 Speaker 1: functional argument that we have here, and I think most 223 00:12:53,360 --> 00:12:55,840 Speaker 1: Americans are going to be up in arms, uh if 224 00:12:55,880 --> 00:12:58,440 Speaker 1: something like that doesn't get past, and frankly the president 225 00:12:58,480 --> 00:13:02,040 Speaker 1: should be too. Is something about our history? Is it? 226 00:13:02,200 --> 00:13:05,400 Speaker 1: Is it a legacy of two hundred years or do 227 00:13:05,440 --> 00:13:07,600 Speaker 1: you do you dated at a certain point. I mean 228 00:13:07,800 --> 00:13:13,640 Speaker 1: Eisenhower built the interstate road system. Yeah, I mean we 229 00:13:13,840 --> 00:13:18,400 Speaker 1: obviously have some historical trends in this country that that uh, 230 00:13:18,679 --> 00:13:23,200 Speaker 1: pressure towards less government intrusion, less government spending. But some 231 00:13:23,280 --> 00:13:26,200 Speaker 1: of our biggest spenders, some of our biggest supporters of 232 00:13:26,240 --> 00:13:31,040 Speaker 1: infrastructure in American history have been Republicans, like you said, Eisenhower, Nixon, 233 00:13:31,160 --> 00:13:33,839 Speaker 1: others like that. Um. And so we're just at a 234 00:13:34,280 --> 00:13:39,080 Speaker 1: crossroads in our politics right now where helping rebuild airports 235 00:13:39,160 --> 00:13:45,160 Speaker 1: and roads in bridges is somehow economically bad and politically nuclear. 236 00:13:45,280 --> 00:13:48,240 Speaker 1: It's it's a bizarre situation. We got to do more 237 00:13:48,240 --> 00:13:50,400 Speaker 1: on this. Love having you on. Thank you so much 238 00:13:50,400 --> 00:13:53,960 Speaker 1: for the Brookie's institution. Really with an interesting remit in 239 00:13:54,000 --> 00:14:10,760 Speaker 1: the think tanks in at Washington, his performance is not flattened. 240 00:14:10,760 --> 00:14:12,960 Speaker 1: If you go to the Bloomberg and you look at 241 00:14:12,960 --> 00:14:17,880 Speaker 1: fancy pants mutual fund managers. Nobody can touch David Harrow 242 00:14:18,520 --> 00:14:22,120 Speaker 1: for performance. Over the last eighteen months, his international stock 243 00:14:22,160 --> 00:14:26,600 Speaker 1: performance has been truly upper decile. He joins US now 244 00:14:26,640 --> 00:14:30,360 Speaker 1: with Harris Associates. David Harrow, can you keep it going? 245 00:14:31,040 --> 00:14:34,560 Speaker 1: How far into the football game the Green Bay Packers 246 00:14:34,640 --> 00:14:40,000 Speaker 1: playoff green Bay Packers super Bowl bound football game? How 247 00:14:40,080 --> 00:14:43,480 Speaker 1: far into it are we with international stocks? Um, we're 248 00:14:43,480 --> 00:14:45,920 Speaker 1: gonna have to wait till next year for the Super Bowl, 249 00:14:46,240 --> 00:14:49,280 Speaker 1: but not for international stocks. Now, I think the good 250 00:14:49,280 --> 00:14:53,080 Speaker 1: news about international stocks there are still decent pockets of value. 251 00:14:53,080 --> 00:14:55,920 Speaker 1: And in particular, if you look at where the European 252 00:14:56,000 --> 00:14:59,400 Speaker 1: equity markets are trading versus the world, you know, there's 253 00:14:59,440 --> 00:15:02,360 Speaker 1: somewhere around thirteen and a half fourteen times next year 254 00:15:02,480 --> 00:15:04,880 Speaker 1: earnings towards and we're towards it. You know, we're just 255 00:15:04,920 --> 00:15:07,560 Speaker 1: coming out of the bottom of the earning cycle, so 256 00:15:07,840 --> 00:15:12,280 Speaker 1: we have rising earnings at relatively low valuations. Um, everywhere 257 00:15:12,280 --> 00:15:14,520 Speaker 1: else it's getting tougher. You just really have to be 258 00:15:14,640 --> 00:15:18,080 Speaker 1: fussy stock by stock by stock. The US of course 259 00:15:18,120 --> 00:15:21,800 Speaker 1: is selling at a premium to the world, but you know, 260 00:15:21,800 --> 00:15:24,600 Speaker 1: I always argue it should trade at some premium to 261 00:15:24,640 --> 00:15:28,920 Speaker 1: the world because it earns the US corporate USA earns 262 00:15:28,920 --> 00:15:32,840 Speaker 1: good returns to our listeners. By Europe, blind I brought 263 00:15:32,920 --> 00:15:36,280 Speaker 1: up Siemens s I e g Y is the euro 264 00:15:36,360 --> 00:15:40,960 Speaker 1: based stock Semens Big Engineering Manufacturing. Maybe it's what Generous 265 00:15:41,000 --> 00:15:44,520 Speaker 1: Electric wants to be. Here's the headline, David Harrowd, I 266 00:15:44,560 --> 00:15:48,680 Speaker 1: got a three percent dividend with minimum dividend growth? Which 267 00:15:48,680 --> 00:15:50,600 Speaker 1: do I want in Europe? Do I want these guys 268 00:15:50,760 --> 00:15:52,600 Speaker 1: to give me more dividend growth or do I just 269 00:15:52,640 --> 00:15:56,120 Speaker 1: take the fat dividend? Well, what we always say about 270 00:15:56,200 --> 00:15:59,920 Speaker 1: capital allocation is we want the management teams to make 271 00:16:00,080 --> 00:16:03,440 Speaker 1: the decision in terms of a capital allocation that leads 272 00:16:03,680 --> 00:16:06,880 Speaker 1: to value creation, and if they can't put the money 273 00:16:06,920 --> 00:16:10,080 Speaker 1: back in their business or make a reasonable acquisition or 274 00:16:10,080 --> 00:16:12,160 Speaker 1: paid on debt, then they should give it back to 275 00:16:12,200 --> 00:16:14,360 Speaker 1: the owners. But they could give it back to the 276 00:16:14,400 --> 00:16:16,840 Speaker 1: owners whether it be in the form of a dividend 277 00:16:16,960 --> 00:16:20,359 Speaker 1: or a stock buy back, depending on the stock valuation. 278 00:16:21,120 --> 00:16:26,440 Speaker 1: UH is really the variable that determines which of those 279 00:16:26,480 --> 00:16:30,800 Speaker 1: to use. So just pain dividends itself isn't good. For instance, 280 00:16:30,840 --> 00:16:34,800 Speaker 1: if the company has a payout ratio, that is, if 281 00:16:34,840 --> 00:16:37,360 Speaker 1: they're paying out more than they earn. Perhaps they shouldn't 282 00:16:37,400 --> 00:16:41,600 Speaker 1: be pain such high dividends. That dividend is unsustainable. So 283 00:16:41,640 --> 00:16:45,720 Speaker 1: there's so many factors, there's so many fascists. John Ferrell, 284 00:16:45,760 --> 00:16:49,560 Speaker 1: BMP Perry Bob Paris has a four point one percent 285 00:16:49,800 --> 00:16:52,480 Speaker 1: yield and the equity is performed well as well. I 286 00:16:52,480 --> 00:16:55,440 Speaker 1: think what strikes me as an incredible um looking at 287 00:16:55,520 --> 00:16:58,920 Speaker 1: David Harrow's portfolio is not just the performance last year, 288 00:16:59,120 --> 00:17:02,480 Speaker 1: but the minimal exposure you have. David tooned States, and 289 00:17:02,480 --> 00:17:04,040 Speaker 1: I want to get fussy with you and talk about 290 00:17:04,080 --> 00:17:06,720 Speaker 1: some some single name issues. You've been in Glencore for 291 00:17:06,760 --> 00:17:09,800 Speaker 1: a long time. You start with Glencore when the stock 292 00:17:09,880 --> 00:17:12,240 Speaker 1: was rolled it over in a really aggressive way. Now 293 00:17:12,280 --> 00:17:14,879 Speaker 1: it's delivered, some people would say that it's still trading 294 00:17:14,880 --> 00:17:17,720 Speaker 1: at a discount versus a b HP and a Rio. 295 00:17:18,119 --> 00:17:20,120 Speaker 1: Why do you think that is? And it's there still 296 00:17:20,200 --> 00:17:23,359 Speaker 1: space for this to rewrite. There is still space for 297 00:17:23,400 --> 00:17:25,879 Speaker 1: glen corter re rate. And really if you look at 298 00:17:25,920 --> 00:17:29,400 Speaker 1: the situation of Glencore today, you know, very very low 299 00:17:29,480 --> 00:17:33,280 Speaker 1: dealt levels. Again, don't forget unlike those other mining companies 300 00:17:33,320 --> 00:17:37,400 Speaker 1: you mentioned, over a third of glen Course profitability comes 301 00:17:37,440 --> 00:17:41,560 Speaker 1: from a very profitable and probably the best commodities trading 302 00:17:41,640 --> 00:17:44,240 Speaker 1: business in the world. And then if you look at 303 00:17:44,440 --> 00:17:50,280 Speaker 1: the extraction the minerals and metals that Glencore extracts and 304 00:17:50,440 --> 00:17:55,520 Speaker 1: minds verse b HP. For instance, UM you see copper 305 00:17:55,560 --> 00:18:00,359 Speaker 1: and nickel and you don't see iron ore UM iron 306 00:18:00,480 --> 00:18:04,639 Speaker 1: or is something with an extremely flat cost curve. So 307 00:18:04,680 --> 00:18:08,159 Speaker 1: if prices go up, supply could expand greatly. This is 308 00:18:08,200 --> 00:18:10,879 Speaker 1: not something you really want to be exposed to. On 309 00:18:10,960 --> 00:18:14,399 Speaker 1: the other hand, b HPS had a very very sour 310 00:18:14,520 --> 00:18:17,359 Speaker 1: record of capital allocation. Now they have a new chairman 311 00:18:17,400 --> 00:18:20,560 Speaker 1: who's quite good, but I mean they really made some 312 00:18:20,680 --> 00:18:23,760 Speaker 1: big mistakes, whether it's being potash or u S energy. 313 00:18:24,840 --> 00:18:26,560 Speaker 1: We've got to leave it there, David Harrow, too short 314 00:18:26,560 --> 00:18:29,040 Speaker 1: of visit today. We look forward to a longer conversation 315 00:18:29,119 --> 00:18:31,800 Speaker 1: with you in London, in New York or at the 316 00:18:31,800 --> 00:18:34,680 Speaker 1: Super Bowl when the Packers play next. David Harrow, So 317 00:18:34,800 --> 00:18:37,879 Speaker 1: the Harris Associates in Chicago. He is a citizen of 318 00:18:37,960 --> 00:18:56,359 Speaker 1: the nation known as Wisconsin. Is the market really inured 319 00:18:56,600 --> 00:19:00,959 Speaker 1: or desensitized to anything negative? Let's find out from our 320 00:19:01,000 --> 00:19:04,240 Speaker 1: next guest, Christina Hooper, is invest goos chief, a global 321 00:19:04,280 --> 00:19:06,919 Speaker 1: market strategist, and she joins us here in our eleven 322 00:19:06,960 --> 00:19:09,639 Speaker 1: three oh studios. Christina, thank you for being here. So 323 00:19:09,800 --> 00:19:14,439 Speaker 1: are the markets completely desensitized to negative news? Well? I 324 00:19:14,440 --> 00:19:17,600 Speaker 1: think they certainly have become desensitized to a certain extent, 325 00:19:18,040 --> 00:19:21,320 Speaker 1: although every now and then a whiff of reality hits 326 00:19:21,400 --> 00:19:24,399 Speaker 1: markets and they react. And we saw that yesterday with 327 00:19:24,480 --> 00:19:28,080 Speaker 1: concerns about a government shutdown. And what about animal spirits? 328 00:19:28,080 --> 00:19:30,160 Speaker 1: Do you think that there's still a lot of excitement 329 00:19:30,280 --> 00:19:34,119 Speaker 1: left over tax reform or tax overhaul and could we 330 00:19:34,240 --> 00:19:38,040 Speaker 1: see some infrastructure spending If we talk about that, maybe 331 00:19:38,040 --> 00:19:40,560 Speaker 1: it will happen and people get excited there too. They're 332 00:19:40,600 --> 00:19:45,159 Speaker 1: definitely animal spirits about tax reform still. Um, I'm surprised 333 00:19:45,200 --> 00:19:48,360 Speaker 1: to see just how excited many companies are, just how 334 00:19:48,400 --> 00:19:52,360 Speaker 1: generous they've been in terms of giveaways to employees either 335 00:19:52,800 --> 00:19:56,639 Speaker 1: increases in in pay, one time bonuses. And I do 336 00:19:56,760 --> 00:20:01,880 Speaker 1: believe that the prospect for infrastructure will keep some level 337 00:20:01,920 --> 00:20:05,840 Speaker 1: of excitement and markets going forward. Christina, we just see 338 00:20:05,880 --> 00:20:09,159 Speaker 1: with the production industrial production number is pretty good. The 339 00:20:09,200 --> 00:20:11,600 Speaker 1: two year yield really break out to new levels almost 340 00:20:11,600 --> 00:20:14,280 Speaker 1: to two point zero four percent up up, We go 341 00:20:14,400 --> 00:20:17,560 Speaker 1: with that yield grinding up, but other yields really not 342 00:20:17,720 --> 00:20:20,840 Speaker 1: participating as much as that center tendency to year yield. 343 00:20:21,400 --> 00:20:25,480 Speaker 1: To an equity person like yourself, what does it signal 344 00:20:25,520 --> 00:20:27,520 Speaker 1: when we see a two year yield have a life 345 00:20:27,560 --> 00:20:31,320 Speaker 1: of its own, Well, what it suggests. I mean, usually 346 00:20:31,359 --> 00:20:34,760 Speaker 1: the two year hughes pretty closely to where we see 347 00:20:34,840 --> 00:20:38,240 Speaker 1: the FED funds rate moving and where a monetary policy 348 00:20:38,320 --> 00:20:42,160 Speaker 1: is going. So, um, what we're likely to see is 349 00:20:42,160 --> 00:20:45,160 Speaker 1: is um, you know, rate hikes in the future, which 350 00:20:45,200 --> 00:20:49,040 Speaker 1: we knew would happen. We're gonna make some news here. 351 00:20:49,119 --> 00:20:51,639 Speaker 1: We're gonna see something January thirty one. I mean, you 352 00:20:51,680 --> 00:20:53,800 Speaker 1: want to surprise as best as you can. That's the 353 00:20:53,840 --> 00:20:56,280 Speaker 1: time to do it. Right. Well, I don't think we'll 354 00:20:56,320 --> 00:20:59,359 Speaker 1: see something January thirty one. We just haven't seen enough 355 00:20:59,480 --> 00:21:03,000 Speaker 1: data that suggests that, um, we're going to see higher 356 00:21:03,040 --> 00:21:06,760 Speaker 1: inflation UM by the time the f O m C meets. 357 00:21:06,760 --> 00:21:09,480 Speaker 1: But having said that, we could certainly see the Fed 358 00:21:09,600 --> 00:21:13,679 Speaker 1: rays rates more than expected in we have an entirely 359 00:21:13,720 --> 00:21:17,119 Speaker 1: new Fed. UM. We also have to be prepared as 360 00:21:17,119 --> 00:21:21,399 Speaker 1: equity investors for the potential for a flattening yield curve 361 00:21:21,480 --> 00:21:24,399 Speaker 1: and all the implications that that has for the stock market. 362 00:21:25,160 --> 00:21:27,480 Speaker 1: Do you assume And this is really interesting, folks, because 363 00:21:27,520 --> 00:21:30,960 Speaker 1: Christina is with invest Goo, an investment house where she's 364 00:21:31,040 --> 00:21:35,680 Speaker 1: not really trying to game the forecasting game day to day. 365 00:21:35,720 --> 00:21:39,400 Speaker 1: But part of your discussion there is a presume good 366 00:21:39,480 --> 00:21:42,280 Speaker 1: g d P? How good is good? I mean, do 367 00:21:42,320 --> 00:21:44,399 Speaker 1: we need to get used to two point four or 368 00:21:44,440 --> 00:21:47,199 Speaker 1: two point six percent is good g d P? Or 369 00:21:47,240 --> 00:21:49,280 Speaker 1: can we actually do a lot better than that is 370 00:21:49,320 --> 00:21:52,719 Speaker 1: indicated by the two year yield? We could certainly see 371 00:21:52,720 --> 00:21:56,480 Speaker 1: three percent GDP. We're an environment of global growth and 372 00:21:56,520 --> 00:21:59,439 Speaker 1: it doesn't look like there will be a slowing of 373 00:21:59,480 --> 00:22:03,920 Speaker 1: that growth based on where we're standing today. Having said that, though, 374 00:22:04,000 --> 00:22:08,640 Speaker 1: our greatest risk, I would argue is central bank tightening 375 00:22:09,080 --> 00:22:12,520 Speaker 1: and the potential for central banks to tighten more than expected. 376 00:22:12,880 --> 00:22:15,600 Speaker 1: We've got the ECB starting to taper, so it's not 377 00:22:15,680 --> 00:22:17,760 Speaker 1: just a FED story, but I think the FED is 378 00:22:17,840 --> 00:22:23,120 Speaker 1: front and center in terms of risks UM for markets. 379 00:22:23,119 --> 00:22:26,920 Speaker 1: In what would cause them to tighten more than expected? 380 00:22:27,680 --> 00:22:30,560 Speaker 1: I think largely it would be based on data that 381 00:22:30,680 --> 00:22:34,720 Speaker 1: suggests higher inflation than expected. The FED is certainly concerned 382 00:22:34,720 --> 00:22:39,280 Speaker 1: about overheating UM, but they're always concerned about overheating, They're 383 00:22:39,280 --> 00:22:42,919 Speaker 1: always concerned about underheating. They're always concerned about something. What 384 00:22:43,080 --> 00:22:47,080 Speaker 1: event would take place or what number or economic metric 385 00:22:47,480 --> 00:22:50,800 Speaker 1: would cause the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates more 386 00:22:50,840 --> 00:22:53,520 Speaker 1: than people have estimated. Well, I think, quite frankly, it's 387 00:22:53,560 --> 00:22:57,280 Speaker 1: a lot to do with what tax reform might mean 388 00:22:57,480 --> 00:23:01,359 Speaker 1: for the economy. So we saw some contemplation about the 389 00:23:01,440 --> 00:23:05,560 Speaker 1: tax reform legislation in the December f O MC minutes, 390 00:23:05,880 --> 00:23:10,399 Speaker 1: and so certainly there's higher sensitivity to um what tax 391 00:23:10,440 --> 00:23:13,680 Speaker 1: reform could do to an economy that's already accelerating. But 392 00:23:13,840 --> 00:23:16,200 Speaker 1: tax reform in terms of what bringing the money back 393 00:23:16,320 --> 00:23:20,560 Speaker 1: overseas or reducing the corporate income tax while the economy 394 00:23:20,680 --> 00:23:24,320 Speaker 1: is three quarters the consumer, Well, I think what we 395 00:23:24,400 --> 00:23:28,399 Speaker 1: may see going forward is that companies shouldering more of 396 00:23:28,440 --> 00:23:31,400 Speaker 1: the growth. We've certainly seen corporate spending that has been 397 00:23:31,440 --> 00:23:34,960 Speaker 1: fairly anemic since the global financial crisis. Now capex spending 398 00:23:35,040 --> 00:23:37,280 Speaker 1: has picked up, but we could see a big boost 399 00:23:37,280 --> 00:23:41,119 Speaker 1: of capex spending because the tax law incentivizes it. You 400 00:23:41,119 --> 00:23:43,680 Speaker 1: don't believe that they will be spending that on dividends 401 00:23:43,720 --> 00:23:46,840 Speaker 1: and share buy backs. I think to a certain extent, 402 00:23:46,880 --> 00:23:49,760 Speaker 1: they'll be spending it on dividends, but they're incentivized to 403 00:23:49,840 --> 00:23:53,359 Speaker 1: be spending it on capex. And quite frankly, what we 404 00:23:53,440 --> 00:23:56,440 Speaker 1: do see, what we've seen historically, at least by companies, 405 00:23:56,520 --> 00:23:59,399 Speaker 1: is they've been pretty good at timing share buy backs. 406 00:23:59,440 --> 00:24:02,800 Speaker 1: They don't do it when markets are arguably more expensive, 407 00:24:02,880 --> 00:24:05,240 Speaker 1: or at least when their stock is arguably more expensive. 408 00:24:05,480 --> 00:24:08,120 Speaker 1: So I don't think we'll see a lot of share 409 00:24:08,160 --> 00:24:12,560 Speaker 1: buybacks in two thousand eighteen, especially with valuations where they 410 00:24:12,600 --> 00:24:15,800 Speaker 1: are today. All right, Christina Hooper invest Goes a chief 411 00:24:15,840 --> 00:24:26,119 Speaker 1: a global market strategist. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg 412 00:24:26,119 --> 00:24:32,080 Speaker 1: Surveillance podcast. Subscribe and listen to interviews on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, 413 00:24:32,440 --> 00:24:36,680 Speaker 1: or whichever podcast platform you prefer. I'm on Twitter at 414 00:24:36,720 --> 00:24:40,960 Speaker 1: Tom Keane before the podcast. You can always catch us worldwide. 415 00:24:41,440 --> 00:24:42,520 Speaker 1: I'm Bloomberg Radio