1 00:00:00,800 --> 00:00:04,000 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, alongside 2 00:00:04,040 --> 00:00:06,920 Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller. Every business day, we bring 3 00:00:06,960 --> 00:00:11,520 Speaker 1: you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along 4 00:00:11,560 --> 00:00:15,560 Speaker 1: with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast 5 00:00:15,600 --> 00:00:18,479 Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and 6 00:00:18,480 --> 00:00:22,640 Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. All right, bring in 7 00:00:22,840 --> 00:00:27,040 Speaker 1: Andrea's cluthe right now, a Bloomberg opinion calumnist who says 8 00:00:27,160 --> 00:00:31,920 Speaker 1: we must start planning for a permanent pandemic. And um, 9 00:00:32,000 --> 00:00:34,760 Speaker 1: Andrea's I want to say, this is getting more and 10 00:00:34,880 --> 00:00:39,040 Speaker 1: more understandable by the day. But are you being a 11 00:00:39,080 --> 00:00:44,080 Speaker 1: little bit too pessimistic? I mean, you say, recent developments 12 00:00:44,120 --> 00:00:49,600 Speaker 1: suggests we may never achieve HERD immunity. Yeah, that's correct, 13 00:00:49,760 --> 00:00:52,080 Speaker 1: And that sounds pestimistic. It wasn't meant to be. And 14 00:00:52,120 --> 00:00:54,480 Speaker 1: if you read the article, you know the tone is 15 00:00:54,840 --> 00:00:56,960 Speaker 1: of anything. I'm trying to be cavalier about it and 16 00:00:57,160 --> 00:01:01,040 Speaker 1: in them almost optimistic. Note. I think if this is, 17 00:01:02,040 --> 00:01:04,440 Speaker 1: if this is the way it's going, Matt, I think 18 00:01:04,440 --> 00:01:07,600 Speaker 1: it's better to be realistic. In fact, you're into planning 19 00:01:07,600 --> 00:01:11,840 Speaker 1: and into scenarios as a as a scenario then, UM, 20 00:01:11,880 --> 00:01:15,000 Speaker 1: just lying to yourself and and as we believe, as 21 00:01:15,080 --> 00:01:17,360 Speaker 1: we have been like, oh, it'll be over next month, 22 00:01:17,440 --> 00:01:19,479 Speaker 1: it'll be over in the summer and the fall. We've 23 00:01:19,480 --> 00:01:22,840 Speaker 1: been through this a few times, and um, we can 24 00:01:22,880 --> 00:01:25,880 Speaker 1: go through the arguments, Matt. But there is a bit 25 00:01:25,920 --> 00:01:30,960 Speaker 1: of a consensus some yeah, that that it may be 26 00:01:31,200 --> 00:01:35,920 Speaker 1: quasi permanent, which is what Paul Bloomberg opinion columnists have 27 00:01:36,040 --> 00:01:38,399 Speaker 1: been saying to me a lot lately. If you read 28 00:01:38,440 --> 00:01:42,080 Speaker 1: the article I'm pulling boats out of the middle of 29 00:01:42,120 --> 00:01:46,080 Speaker 1: the story, I read it start to finish me too well. 30 00:01:46,880 --> 00:01:48,920 Speaker 1: Untry asked you talk about it in the in the 31 00:01:49,240 --> 00:01:52,480 Speaker 1: in your piece about the whole concept of herd immunity. 32 00:01:52,520 --> 00:01:54,880 Speaker 1: I think I think one of the working hypothesis in 33 00:01:55,640 --> 00:01:57,880 Speaker 1: out there is that the combination of people that have 34 00:01:58,000 --> 00:02:03,480 Speaker 1: already um had the virus plus those that are vaccinated 35 00:02:03,520 --> 00:02:06,240 Speaker 1: will be enough to get us to quote unquote herd immunity. 36 00:02:06,920 --> 00:02:10,200 Speaker 1: What's the kind of argument there? The counter argument is, so, 37 00:02:10,440 --> 00:02:12,840 Speaker 1: so you're right, so you can get immunity from having 38 00:02:12,880 --> 00:02:15,480 Speaker 1: had it and having antibodies and being immune that way, 39 00:02:15,800 --> 00:02:18,839 Speaker 1: or from being vaccinated in all the other diseases out there, 40 00:02:18,840 --> 00:02:22,359 Speaker 1: including this one. We thought the two to boil the 41 00:02:22,400 --> 00:02:25,440 Speaker 1: many arguments down to the two main ones. The first 42 00:02:25,520 --> 00:02:28,280 Speaker 1: is we have now evidence for South Africa and Brazil 43 00:02:29,560 --> 00:02:33,320 Speaker 1: that having had the disease does not make you immune 44 00:02:33,360 --> 00:02:37,920 Speaker 1: to new variance, new mutations of the virus, so that 45 00:02:38,000 --> 00:02:41,440 Speaker 1: there is no what they call cross variant immunity that 46 00:02:41,639 --> 00:02:45,960 Speaker 1: essentially needs that path to herd immunity isn't may not 47 00:02:46,040 --> 00:02:49,480 Speaker 1: be available. That leaves everything on the vaccines, and as 48 00:02:49,520 --> 00:02:51,880 Speaker 1: you know, that's going well in some places and others, 49 00:02:51,919 --> 00:02:55,760 Speaker 1: but that this isn't about that. The the virus is mutating, 50 00:02:55,880 --> 00:02:59,799 Speaker 1: mutating faster. Probably I'm calling it an arms race between 51 00:03:00,080 --> 00:03:04,079 Speaker 1: new vaccines for new variants and new variants. But keep 52 00:03:04,120 --> 00:03:07,880 Speaker 1: in mind there the evolution happened. It doesn't care where 53 00:03:08,000 --> 00:03:11,519 Speaker 1: it happens. If you vaccinate everyone in Israel, which is 54 00:03:11,560 --> 00:03:15,320 Speaker 1: about half of the people there, fine, maybe they could 55 00:03:15,360 --> 00:03:19,560 Speaker 1: be taked temporarily. But the next door Syria or Palestine, 56 00:03:19,560 --> 00:03:23,000 Speaker 1: you know, or in Africa, it is mutating and the 57 00:03:23,080 --> 00:03:27,000 Speaker 1: new strain they will be unprotected against. And and that 58 00:03:27,120 --> 00:03:30,239 Speaker 1: is that arms race we're in and we may lose. 59 00:03:31,160 --> 00:03:34,240 Speaker 1: So I don't know enough about this, and you're the 60 00:03:34,280 --> 00:03:38,200 Speaker 1: historian um, which is why we have you on. I 61 00:03:38,240 --> 00:03:42,520 Speaker 1: thought that, for example, in the Spanish flu epidemic, which 62 00:03:42,560 --> 00:03:44,480 Speaker 1: I know it's probably not PC to call it the 63 00:03:44,520 --> 00:03:51,880 Speaker 1: Spanish flu pandemic Um, we saw that virus evolved in 64 00:03:51,920 --> 00:03:55,160 Speaker 1: a way that just made it like the common flu 65 00:03:55,360 --> 00:03:59,320 Speaker 1: that we all get today. UM. Basically it's still spread 66 00:03:59,360 --> 00:04:04,520 Speaker 1: around but stopped killing people. And epidemiologists that we've spoken 67 00:04:04,520 --> 00:04:07,720 Speaker 1: with have said that's a possibility with this virus as well. 68 00:04:07,720 --> 00:04:09,840 Speaker 1: Why do you not think that's a likely path for 69 00:04:09,920 --> 00:04:14,640 Speaker 1: it to take. I'm actually not have stating in opinion 70 00:04:14,960 --> 00:04:18,960 Speaker 1: I think this. I'm giving scenarios. First of all, the 71 00:04:19,120 --> 00:04:24,479 Speaker 1: normal thing with with pathogens, bacterial, viral doesn't matter is 72 00:04:24,480 --> 00:04:28,359 Speaker 1: that the longer they evolved, they will eventually get better 73 00:04:28,400 --> 00:04:31,919 Speaker 1: and get more transmissible but weaker, because it's actually the 74 00:04:31,960 --> 00:04:34,400 Speaker 1: way it gives you an evolutionary advantage. If you don't 75 00:04:34,480 --> 00:04:37,359 Speaker 1: kill your host, you get to propagate longer and hop 76 00:04:37,400 --> 00:04:40,320 Speaker 1: onto the next one. But what we've seen, and this 77 00:04:40,400 --> 00:04:42,560 Speaker 1: is why the article is coming out now, is what 78 00:04:42,640 --> 00:04:47,680 Speaker 1: we've seen in recent months is varying submerging that are 79 00:04:47,920 --> 00:04:53,960 Speaker 1: more transmissible but not less severe and there's the math. 80 00:04:54,080 --> 00:04:57,640 Speaker 1: The epidemiological math is interesting and I linked to it 81 00:04:57,720 --> 00:05:00,800 Speaker 1: is if you have a virus that mute, that gets 82 00:05:01,200 --> 00:05:04,800 Speaker 1: more virulent, worse basically, but not more transmissible, you have 83 00:05:04,960 --> 00:05:08,599 Speaker 1: linear growth in cases and debts. But if you have 84 00:05:08,760 --> 00:05:12,040 Speaker 1: what we have now of a virus that mutates, becomes 85 00:05:12,080 --> 00:05:17,000 Speaker 1: more transmissible and not less severe, you have exponential growth. 86 00:05:17,440 --> 00:05:20,240 Speaker 1: And that is this. So, so what I'm saying is 87 00:05:20,279 --> 00:05:22,679 Speaker 1: not that we're all doom. No, I'm not. I'm saying 88 00:05:22,720 --> 00:05:26,080 Speaker 1: this is a scenario that so many people are taking 89 00:05:26,160 --> 00:05:29,240 Speaker 1: very seriously. It just feels like, right now we have 90 00:05:29,279 --> 00:05:32,200 Speaker 1: to start planning for it. Andres you you link to 91 00:05:32,240 --> 00:05:36,080 Speaker 1: that math from Adam Karski at the London School of 92 00:05:36,160 --> 00:05:39,640 Speaker 1: Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, and I'm going to click on that. 93 00:05:39,680 --> 00:05:41,680 Speaker 1: I haven't read it yet, but I'm just thinking, like, 94 00:05:41,760 --> 00:05:44,560 Speaker 1: it's only been a minute, right, We've only been We're 95 00:05:44,600 --> 00:05:50,360 Speaker 1: only a year into this, and the um pandemic lasted 96 00:05:50,400 --> 00:05:52,960 Speaker 1: a couple of years before it started to peter out. 97 00:05:53,120 --> 00:05:57,080 Speaker 1: So I'm just I guess I'm optimist. I'm hopeful that 98 00:05:57,640 --> 00:06:00,680 Speaker 1: we get an end not not only of the pandemic, 99 00:06:00,760 --> 00:06:03,440 Speaker 1: but also eventually we get an end to these lockdowns, 100 00:06:04,480 --> 00:06:07,360 Speaker 1: and you're allowed to be. Can I say one last thing? 101 00:06:07,360 --> 00:06:11,160 Speaker 1: Do we have time? Oh? Yeah? Ye? For me, the 102 00:06:11,160 --> 00:06:14,880 Speaker 1: purpose was to make this the curtain raiser, basically a 103 00:06:14,880 --> 00:06:17,680 Speaker 1: new premise or a new scenario, which I want to 104 00:06:17,720 --> 00:06:21,560 Speaker 1: follow up with lots of other columns if this is 105 00:06:21,600 --> 00:06:25,080 Speaker 1: the case, because actually I'm I'm optimistic on how how 106 00:06:25,120 --> 00:06:29,720 Speaker 1: resilient we are if this becomes the scenario. What does 107 00:06:29,760 --> 00:06:32,840 Speaker 1: that mean for the economy, for politics, for how we work, 108 00:06:32,880 --> 00:06:36,080 Speaker 1: how we study and learn the kids, how we exercise, 109 00:06:36,120 --> 00:06:38,440 Speaker 1: how we travel, all these other things. Because you will 110 00:06:38,480 --> 00:06:41,800 Speaker 1: see amazing changes, and you will see us become the 111 00:06:41,920 --> 00:06:44,919 Speaker 1: future us in in this and it will not be 112 00:06:44,960 --> 00:06:47,440 Speaker 1: all bad. And by the way the World Happens Index 113 00:06:47,520 --> 00:06:50,640 Speaker 1: just came out this week, we're almost as happy as 114 00:06:50,680 --> 00:06:53,839 Speaker 1: we've always been, So, you know, not the end of 115 00:06:53,839 --> 00:06:58,159 Speaker 1: the world if the pandemic is almost permanent. And I 116 00:06:58,160 --> 00:07:00,520 Speaker 1: think that's one of misunderstanding, So that want to clear 117 00:07:00,520 --> 00:07:03,080 Speaker 1: that up. So Andrea's just we have about third thirty 118 00:07:03,120 --> 00:07:06,000 Speaker 1: seconds here. What are you hearing from the biotech industry, 119 00:07:06,000 --> 00:07:09,720 Speaker 1: from a pharma industry about their ability to create vaccines 120 00:07:09,760 --> 00:07:12,400 Speaker 1: that may be flexible and in order to handle the 121 00:07:12,440 --> 00:07:17,760 Speaker 1: various variants. I guess I'm very bullish on the technology. 122 00:07:17,960 --> 00:07:21,040 Speaker 1: I don't talk about companies m RNA, which I've written 123 00:07:21,040 --> 00:07:24,480 Speaker 1: about in the previous article, because this is an unbelievable 124 00:07:24,480 --> 00:07:28,800 Speaker 1: opportunity for that technology to use messenger RNA to make 125 00:07:28,840 --> 00:07:32,200 Speaker 1: any protein we want for the body to create community 126 00:07:32,200 --> 00:07:36,160 Speaker 1: against that protein, because those are the vaccine. If we 127 00:07:36,240 --> 00:07:38,840 Speaker 1: have a shot in the in the arms race I 128 00:07:38,920 --> 00:07:42,680 Speaker 1: described of winning it, it's because of those vaccines. And 129 00:07:42,800 --> 00:07:45,320 Speaker 1: once we've built up as we are now doing this 130 00:07:45,680 --> 00:07:50,800 Speaker 1: enormous manufacturing and research capacity for that technology, we can 131 00:07:50,960 --> 00:07:55,000 Speaker 1: use it against cancer. Cancer that's the next goal, and 132 00:07:55,120 --> 00:07:58,760 Speaker 1: that would be definitely reason for optimism. Andreas, thanks very 133 00:07:58,840 --> 00:08:02,560 Speaker 1: much for joining us. Andrea's cloth is a Bloomberg Opinion calumnists. 134 00:08:02,560 --> 00:08:05,920 Speaker 1: He's also the author of Hannibal and Me, and you 135 00:08:05,960 --> 00:08:07,840 Speaker 1: can read his work in the work of his colleagues 136 00:08:08,080 --> 00:08:11,720 Speaker 1: on the terminal by typing O, P, I and go 137 00:08:12,680 --> 00:08:18,800 Speaker 1: this is Bloomberg. Let's talk a little bit about real 138 00:08:18,960 --> 00:08:21,400 Speaker 1: estate and what it's gonna look like as we come 139 00:08:21,440 --> 00:08:25,640 Speaker 1: out of this pandemic, assuming that we will. Um The 140 00:08:25,720 --> 00:08:29,240 Speaker 1: vaccine rollout is going really well in the US and 141 00:08:29,520 --> 00:08:32,480 Speaker 1: the UK UM, and I want to bring in Lisa 142 00:08:32,520 --> 00:08:35,120 Speaker 1: Kni for that. She's a co leader for National, the 143 00:08:35,280 --> 00:08:39,880 Speaker 1: national real estate practice at Eisner Amper and Lisa, it's 144 00:08:39,920 --> 00:08:42,880 Speaker 1: really interesting because this morning we saw some headlines about 145 00:08:43,040 --> 00:08:46,200 Speaker 1: banks in Hong Kong that are giving up space. And 146 00:08:46,240 --> 00:08:49,040 Speaker 1: of course I've spoken to the CEO of Deutsche Bank 147 00:08:49,080 --> 00:08:51,960 Speaker 1: who thinks commercial real estate is one place where he 148 00:08:52,000 --> 00:08:55,720 Speaker 1: can cut costs and then continue to save money going forward. 149 00:08:56,000 --> 00:08:58,600 Speaker 1: Are we gonna see in San Francisco in New York 150 00:08:58,679 --> 00:09:03,400 Speaker 1: a lot of big tenants start to pare down their uh, 151 00:09:03,600 --> 00:09:07,360 Speaker 1: you know, their leases. Yes, thank you for having me 152 00:09:07,440 --> 00:09:10,200 Speaker 1: this morning. So when you look at real estate overall, 153 00:09:10,280 --> 00:09:13,079 Speaker 1: and the story is still being written, and but it's 154 00:09:13,080 --> 00:09:15,880 Speaker 1: certainly with the tenants, as you had mentioned um in 155 00:09:15,920 --> 00:09:18,920 Speaker 1: your opening description. And so some people believe that the 156 00:09:19,000 --> 00:09:21,120 Speaker 1: workers are going to be more productive outside of the 157 00:09:21,160 --> 00:09:25,080 Speaker 1: house versus some people's picture is saying, we still need 158 00:09:25,080 --> 00:09:28,679 Speaker 1: that corporate culture environment to get innovation and growth, and 159 00:09:28,720 --> 00:09:31,640 Speaker 1: so you still need that connectivity of the office, and 160 00:09:31,720 --> 00:09:33,720 Speaker 1: that story is going to be with the tenant and 161 00:09:33,760 --> 00:09:37,760 Speaker 1: how comfortable they feel bringing their teams back into the 162 00:09:37,840 --> 00:09:40,719 Speaker 1: office market. And so we've already seen. Did they have 163 00:09:40,840 --> 00:09:42,319 Speaker 1: to do that to the extent that they had them 164 00:09:42,320 --> 00:09:45,080 Speaker 1: before the pandemic? I mean, I totally I'm totally down 165 00:09:45,080 --> 00:09:47,920 Speaker 1: with everything you just said. But um, isn't there a 166 00:09:47,960 --> 00:09:51,680 Speaker 1: new world facing us? Yeah? And by the way, before 167 00:09:51,800 --> 00:09:54,440 Speaker 1: the new world faced us New York City and San Francisco, 168 00:09:54,520 --> 00:09:57,720 Speaker 1: that same story was being written that people were paring 169 00:09:57,760 --> 00:10:01,839 Speaker 1: down space and starting to at alternatives for their office 170 00:10:01,880 --> 00:10:04,400 Speaker 1: spake whe whether it was hub and spoke models where 171 00:10:04,400 --> 00:10:07,839 Speaker 1: there was no elevators and or or doing working outside 172 00:10:07,960 --> 00:10:10,600 Speaker 1: of those main hub cities. So this story was being 173 00:10:10,640 --> 00:10:14,640 Speaker 1: written pre pandemic, and it's also being written post pandemic, 174 00:10:14,920 --> 00:10:16,680 Speaker 1: and it's going to see who the winners are going 175 00:10:16,720 --> 00:10:19,480 Speaker 1: to be post pandemic and saying what are those office 176 00:10:19,520 --> 00:10:21,960 Speaker 1: leases going to look like? How are the tenants are 177 00:10:22,000 --> 00:10:24,080 Speaker 1: going to say, maybe we're going to take space. It's 178 00:10:24,120 --> 00:10:25,880 Speaker 1: going to look a little bit different because we have 179 00:10:25,960 --> 00:10:29,640 Speaker 1: to dedentify now when before we were using less space 180 00:10:29,640 --> 00:10:32,120 Speaker 1: for a person, now we need to increase that space. 181 00:10:32,400 --> 00:10:34,480 Speaker 1: And are we going to ask for shorter term leases 182 00:10:34,600 --> 00:10:37,079 Speaker 1: which is going to drive down valuation? And how are 183 00:10:37,080 --> 00:10:40,560 Speaker 1: those tenants going to negotiate with the landlords to figure 184 00:10:40,600 --> 00:10:44,280 Speaker 1: out what spacing requirements make sense for them. So those cities, 185 00:10:44,559 --> 00:10:47,080 Speaker 1: it's still a story that's going to be written, and 186 00:10:47,120 --> 00:10:49,480 Speaker 1: again it's going to all depend on that tenant and 187 00:10:49,520 --> 00:10:52,040 Speaker 1: that behavior of the people of how they feel when 188 00:10:52,040 --> 00:10:55,719 Speaker 1: they want to get back into that office space. So coworking, 189 00:10:55,760 --> 00:10:58,000 Speaker 1: which people were saying there's too much on the market, 190 00:10:58,320 --> 00:11:00,560 Speaker 1: and how that was going to impact. And I think 191 00:11:00,600 --> 00:11:03,000 Speaker 1: in the beginning of the pandemic, people were writing off 192 00:11:03,360 --> 00:11:06,920 Speaker 1: in disparaging coworking space, but that actually might tend to 193 00:11:06,960 --> 00:11:09,720 Speaker 1: be a solution for some of these larger companies that 194 00:11:09,760 --> 00:11:12,839 Speaker 1: are looking to downsize from their bigger office spaces that 195 00:11:12,880 --> 00:11:16,319 Speaker 1: they held in these bigger cities. Were you disparaging office 196 00:11:16,320 --> 00:11:20,160 Speaker 1: spaceball coworking office space? Of course, I'm I'm as soon 197 00:11:20,160 --> 00:11:22,960 Speaker 1: as I get my job, and the first one is Saturday. 198 00:11:23,760 --> 00:11:26,719 Speaker 1: I'm back in the Bloomberg. See, I gotta tell you, 199 00:11:26,760 --> 00:11:31,000 Speaker 1: I gotta tell you both. Um Lisa, right when he 200 00:11:31,080 --> 00:11:34,080 Speaker 1: started we work, I went to hang out with what's 201 00:11:34,080 --> 00:11:37,160 Speaker 1: his name now he's um, I can't remember his name's 202 00:11:37,760 --> 00:11:40,679 Speaker 1: billionaire in the past ran we work. Anyway. I went 203 00:11:40,720 --> 00:11:43,199 Speaker 1: down there about ten years ago and it was such 204 00:11:43,200 --> 00:11:45,440 Speaker 1: a cool space to hang out. I thought it was awesome, 205 00:11:45,440 --> 00:11:47,720 Speaker 1: but now you're right, people rip on it. Co working 206 00:11:48,160 --> 00:11:50,160 Speaker 1: Lisa and I wonder I'd love to get a sense 207 00:11:50,160 --> 00:11:53,200 Speaker 1: of valuation in the corporate office space. Have we seen 208 00:11:53,200 --> 00:11:55,679 Speaker 1: any transactions, because I wouldn't be surprised to see a 209 00:11:56,440 --> 00:12:00,760 Speaker 1: building on Park Avenue or Fifth Avenue trade hands at 210 00:12:00,840 --> 00:12:03,240 Speaker 1: of what it would have two years ago. Have we 211 00:12:03,280 --> 00:12:06,199 Speaker 1: seen anything? So there's been a lot less trading, and 212 00:12:06,360 --> 00:12:10,760 Speaker 1: cap crates really have been relatively consistent because because there 213 00:12:10,760 --> 00:12:12,800 Speaker 1: has been a lot less trading, and and there's still 214 00:12:12,840 --> 00:12:15,920 Speaker 1: a major disparity between the bid and the ask. So 215 00:12:16,040 --> 00:12:19,040 Speaker 1: you've seen some deals, but people are really disciplined with 216 00:12:19,080 --> 00:12:22,120 Speaker 1: their capital right now, which is good um, and so 217 00:12:22,200 --> 00:12:24,760 Speaker 1: we haven't seen as much trading, and so you're not 218 00:12:24,840 --> 00:12:28,520 Speaker 1: really seeing the valuation shifts. And right now, the leases 219 00:12:28,559 --> 00:12:31,400 Speaker 1: in place are still long term leases. And again, as 220 00:12:31,440 --> 00:12:34,080 Speaker 1: I mentioned before, that story is going to be once 221 00:12:34,080 --> 00:12:38,120 Speaker 1: those leases are set to expire and the revaluation occurs, 222 00:12:38,480 --> 00:12:40,800 Speaker 1: that's really we're gonna We're we're going to see the 223 00:12:40,880 --> 00:12:43,560 Speaker 1: trend of either the values are able to remain or 224 00:12:43,600 --> 00:12:48,080 Speaker 1: they're going to change. By the way, what I like 225 00:12:48,160 --> 00:12:50,440 Speaker 1: to know, Matt, because when we walk around in New York, 226 00:12:50,440 --> 00:12:53,640 Speaker 1: what really really jumps out at you because you're at 227 00:12:53,679 --> 00:12:57,439 Speaker 1: ground level on the street is retail space and the vacancies. 228 00:12:57,960 --> 00:12:59,280 Speaker 1: At least it give us a sense of kind of 229 00:12:59,280 --> 00:13:01,120 Speaker 1: how retail space is looking on some of these major 230 00:13:01,200 --> 00:13:05,079 Speaker 1: urban markets. Yeah, and that was struggling before the pandemic, 231 00:13:05,160 --> 00:13:08,079 Speaker 1: the retail space because the biggest problem in retail is 232 00:13:08,120 --> 00:13:11,880 Speaker 1: not even e commerce. The biggest problem in retail is 233 00:13:11,920 --> 00:13:14,160 Speaker 1: that oversupply at the stores. There was just there's too 234 00:13:14,240 --> 00:13:16,920 Speaker 1: many out there, and so that's going to be the 235 00:13:16,960 --> 00:13:20,120 Speaker 1: biggest struggle UM and and figure out you need capital 236 00:13:20,200 --> 00:13:23,840 Speaker 1: to reposition those those retail spaces. And there's really no 237 00:13:23,920 --> 00:13:27,360 Speaker 1: capital in that marketplace right now. And so retail is 238 00:13:27,400 --> 00:13:30,800 Speaker 1: gonna has been struggling and probably will continue to struggle, 239 00:13:31,200 --> 00:13:34,040 Speaker 1: um post pandemic. That's going to be a really the 240 00:13:34,040 --> 00:13:36,959 Speaker 1: biggest concern of that. But remember it was struggling before 241 00:13:36,960 --> 00:13:42,400 Speaker 1: we even had this happen. All right, So what's the 242 00:13:42,240 --> 00:13:44,640 Speaker 1: over the next twenty seconds, I'd love to just get 243 00:13:44,679 --> 00:13:47,400 Speaker 1: your thoughts here. Are we going to see a rebound, 244 00:13:47,480 --> 00:13:53,439 Speaker 1: a snap back rebound in real estate? So they're Snappack rebound. 245 00:13:53,520 --> 00:13:55,640 Speaker 1: So when we look at real estate overall, there's been 246 00:13:55,720 --> 00:13:59,880 Speaker 1: some real winners and losers with each property sector. So 247 00:14:00,080 --> 00:14:03,280 Speaker 1: each property sector has been faring um and there's always 248 00:14:03,320 --> 00:14:05,640 Speaker 1: going to be an outlier within those. So when you're 249 00:14:05,640 --> 00:14:09,000 Speaker 1: looking at an industrial center, that's been a darling of 250 00:14:09,040 --> 00:14:11,800 Speaker 1: the industry and that's going to continue to be um. 251 00:14:11,840 --> 00:14:15,000 Speaker 1: And so people are liking that hospitality, you know, leasure 252 00:14:15,040 --> 00:14:17,520 Speaker 1: travels coming back. We're reading something in the news every 253 00:14:17,559 --> 00:14:19,880 Speaker 1: single day about you know, people are ready to start 254 00:14:19,960 --> 00:14:23,360 Speaker 1: traveling and so large block and convention centers may not, 255 00:14:23,640 --> 00:14:27,200 Speaker 1: but leisure certainly is. So there is hope for the hospitality, 256 00:14:27,800 --> 00:14:29,280 Speaker 1: hope for there or at least thanks so much for 257 00:14:29,360 --> 00:14:31,600 Speaker 1: joining us. Lisa Nick, Co leader of the national real 258 00:14:31,680 --> 00:14:36,440 Speaker 1: Estate practice at Eisner Amper. We all know the bull 259 00:14:36,480 --> 00:14:39,840 Speaker 1: case for equities. It's kind of ingrained into our minds now. 260 00:14:40,120 --> 00:14:43,960 Speaker 1: Persistent low rates, fiscal stimulus, the reopening trade, even some 261 00:14:43,960 --> 00:14:47,120 Speaker 1: some good earnings. What keeps people up at night that 262 00:14:47,240 --> 00:14:50,480 Speaker 1: are bullish? Let's talk to Louis Navalier, chairman, founder and 263 00:14:50,600 --> 00:14:54,800 Speaker 1: c IO of Navallier and Associates based in Renown, Nevada. 264 00:14:55,320 --> 00:15:00,240 Speaker 1: So Louis the bullish calling equities it's pretty solid. Are 265 00:15:00,280 --> 00:15:04,280 Speaker 1: you a big proponent of that book call? Yes? The 266 00:15:04,360 --> 00:15:08,040 Speaker 1: reason is sales and earnings momentum are still accelerate. So 267 00:15:08,120 --> 00:15:11,280 Speaker 1: the first quarter results are going to be the peak 268 00:15:11,320 --> 00:15:13,680 Speaker 1: for sales and earnings momentum. And we're gonna have easy 269 00:15:13,720 --> 00:15:17,920 Speaker 1: comparisons all year because of the pandemic. But the peak 270 00:15:18,000 --> 00:15:20,760 Speaker 1: of sales earnings momentum will happen in April and May. 271 00:15:20,800 --> 00:15:25,040 Speaker 1: When we get those first quote results, Well, is it 272 00:15:25,040 --> 00:15:27,880 Speaker 1: going to bring with it a lot of inflation um? 273 00:15:27,920 --> 00:15:31,400 Speaker 1: And do you believe that to be transitory? It looks 274 00:15:31,400 --> 00:15:34,120 Speaker 1: like it's transitory. I think what Wall Street wanted is 275 00:15:34,160 --> 00:15:37,600 Speaker 1: it one of the Fed to acknowledge that inflation exists, 276 00:15:37,640 --> 00:15:40,520 Speaker 1: and they when they raise their inflation target this year 277 00:15:40,600 --> 00:15:44,160 Speaker 1: the two point four um that calm Wall straight down. 278 00:15:44,680 --> 00:15:47,200 Speaker 1: The other thing is that there's a dollar was week 279 00:15:47,280 --> 00:15:50,240 Speaker 1: for a while, but since late um February the dollars 280 00:15:50,560 --> 00:15:53,360 Speaker 1: strengthening here quite a bit. So events like what happened 281 00:15:53,360 --> 00:15:55,920 Speaker 1: in Turkey earlier this week, all those things to strengthen 282 00:15:56,000 --> 00:15:59,160 Speaker 1: the dollar, plus all the e t v's money printing 283 00:15:59,240 --> 00:16:02,720 Speaker 1: and MMT that where they just print endless money so 284 00:16:02,800 --> 00:16:05,880 Speaker 1: that's that's all helping the strengthen the dollar, plus our GDP. 285 00:16:06,080 --> 00:16:08,800 Speaker 1: You know, they're in a double differcession in Europe and 286 00:16:08,920 --> 00:16:13,640 Speaker 1: uh we're recovering, so Louis, you know, there's been a 287 00:16:13,760 --> 00:16:16,240 Speaker 1: question of kind of do I stick with the tried 288 00:16:16,320 --> 00:16:18,600 Speaker 1: and true big tech growth names that have worked so 289 00:16:18,640 --> 00:16:21,440 Speaker 1: well for me really since the financial crisis, or do 290 00:16:21,520 --> 00:16:23,880 Speaker 1: I play this uh you know, kind of pivot trade 291 00:16:23,920 --> 00:16:27,640 Speaker 1: this uh this reopening trade, if you will, and maybe 292 00:16:27,680 --> 00:16:31,560 Speaker 1: go to some more economic sensitive areas. How are you 293 00:16:31,600 --> 00:16:36,640 Speaker 1: thinking about your portfolio allocation? You right here? Well, I'm 294 00:16:36,680 --> 00:16:39,720 Speaker 1: a growth manager and we got off to a very 295 00:16:39,720 --> 00:16:42,760 Speaker 1: strong start to share, mostly from international e d rs, 296 00:16:43,120 --> 00:16:46,920 Speaker 1: and obviously we got caught up in that NASAC capiculation 297 00:16:47,160 --> 00:16:50,040 Speaker 1: a few weeks ago, but I'm very happy with how 298 00:16:50,120 --> 00:16:52,720 Speaker 1: things are coming back. Now. I'm not gonna be find 299 00:16:52,760 --> 00:16:57,520 Speaker 1: the financials because that's a valued managers thing, but the 300 00:16:57,640 --> 00:17:00,920 Speaker 1: c Bilker is greater financials. Okay. As far as energy 301 00:17:01,120 --> 00:17:03,360 Speaker 1: is concerned, we are starting to pick up some energy stocks, 302 00:17:03,480 --> 00:17:09,399 Speaker 1: especially midstream, and so uh you know, obviously the that 303 00:17:09,640 --> 00:17:12,359 Speaker 1: that's starting to look look a little more growthy, although 304 00:17:12,440 --> 00:17:14,959 Speaker 1: technically that's a value stock as well. And then of 305 00:17:15,000 --> 00:17:18,160 Speaker 1: course we have the chemical shortages. We have the plastic 306 00:17:18,160 --> 00:17:21,160 Speaker 1: shortage in America and the big freeze in Texas, so 307 00:17:21,200 --> 00:17:23,840 Speaker 1: that those are showing up on the energy side. So 308 00:17:24,000 --> 00:17:26,600 Speaker 1: there's the markets broughtening out here and that's a that's 309 00:17:26,640 --> 00:17:29,920 Speaker 1: a good thing. So this whole value surge we had 310 00:17:30,080 --> 00:17:31,840 Speaker 1: is a good thing. But every time you go on 311 00:17:31,880 --> 00:17:35,480 Speaker 1: earning season, you're gonna have to buy the value stocks averagage. 312 00:17:37,160 --> 00:17:41,000 Speaker 1: Why do you like or why were you buying a 313 00:17:41,200 --> 00:17:43,040 Speaker 1: d R s at the beginning of the year. Is 314 00:17:43,080 --> 00:17:47,040 Speaker 1: that something that you do? Um at the value and 315 00:17:47,080 --> 00:17:51,760 Speaker 1: associates especially well, we have a lot of foreign A 316 00:17:51,840 --> 00:17:53,720 Speaker 1: d rs. We've always had a lot of Itsraeli A 317 00:17:53,840 --> 00:17:55,840 Speaker 1: d R because you know, Israel's got a great silicon 318 00:17:55,960 --> 00:17:58,320 Speaker 1: vallee a lot to get bought out. But we've had 319 00:17:58,400 --> 00:18:00,359 Speaker 1: Chinese a d r s for some time than our 320 00:18:00,440 --> 00:18:03,360 Speaker 1: perception was. Is that, for lack of a better word, 321 00:18:03,480 --> 00:18:06,000 Speaker 1: China one the election and uh and we need to 322 00:18:06,000 --> 00:18:09,800 Speaker 1: beat them or join them and um so um we 323 00:18:09,920 --> 00:18:14,760 Speaker 1: joined them all right, Louis, So I know you growth 324 00:18:14,880 --> 00:18:17,760 Speaker 1: and there's obviously tech is part of that. Are you 325 00:18:17,800 --> 00:18:20,960 Speaker 1: concerned about regulatory risk? Or how concerned are you about 326 00:18:20,960 --> 00:18:23,720 Speaker 1: regulatory risk for big tech. We're gonna have uh, some 327 00:18:23,800 --> 00:18:26,679 Speaker 1: of the big tech CEOs Zuckerberg and so on in 328 00:18:26,720 --> 00:18:30,480 Speaker 1: front of Congress again tomorrow. I'm pretty immune to that. 329 00:18:30,920 --> 00:18:34,120 Speaker 1: My biggest check would be like a navidio UM so 330 00:18:34,160 --> 00:18:36,360 Speaker 1: that's just a chip stock. And obviously there's a chip 331 00:18:36,359 --> 00:18:40,320 Speaker 1: shortage and uh so the semi conductor space is very healthy. 332 00:18:40,359 --> 00:18:43,159 Speaker 1: But yeah, I'm not a major holder of of of 333 00:18:43,240 --> 00:18:47,640 Speaker 1: the check that is restricting Jane censorship and all that stuff. 334 00:18:47,680 --> 00:18:50,320 Speaker 1: We're not part of that. But but you do love 335 00:18:50,480 --> 00:18:56,159 Speaker 1: the uh Silicon Valley, I mean the original, um, the 336 00:18:56,200 --> 00:18:59,280 Speaker 1: original definition of that. You began publishing research back in 337 00:19:00,119 --> 00:19:03,520 Speaker 1: d So I'm guessing you're moved by you know, Andy 338 00:19:03,560 --> 00:19:08,480 Speaker 1: Grove and and crew, like the the original chip producing 339 00:19:09,480 --> 00:19:13,119 Speaker 1: UH companies. What do you think about the Intel news 340 00:19:13,119 --> 00:19:17,000 Speaker 1: today that they're gonna, um start building a couple of 341 00:19:17,040 --> 00:19:20,560 Speaker 1: new foundries. Well, that's great news, but there's an acute 342 00:19:20,600 --> 00:19:23,400 Speaker 1: chip shortage. But you know, Intel's biggest problem has been 343 00:19:23,440 --> 00:19:26,480 Speaker 1: they've been losing out to advanced micro devices. You know, 344 00:19:26,560 --> 00:19:29,840 Speaker 1: Apple obviously builds their own chips, so Intel is trying 345 00:19:29,880 --> 00:19:32,400 Speaker 1: to get its mojo back. But you know, worst case, 346 00:19:32,480 --> 00:19:35,440 Speaker 1: they can just do what Taiwan does and start to 347 00:19:35,480 --> 00:19:38,840 Speaker 1: make chips are in short supply, by the way, in Taiwan, 348 00:19:38,920 --> 00:19:41,639 Speaker 1: they gotta drout over there, and that's that's another compilation 349 00:19:41,680 --> 00:19:44,520 Speaker 1: to a chip shortage. Um, but we own a lot 350 00:19:44,560 --> 00:19:49,359 Speaker 1: of Taiwan semi conductor and microelk it. Louis just about 351 00:19:49,400 --> 00:19:52,240 Speaker 1: the thirty seconds. What's kind of your highest conviction work 352 00:19:52,320 --> 00:19:56,200 Speaker 1: that you guys are doing right now? UM? I still 353 00:19:56,400 --> 00:20:00,280 Speaker 1: really really like the cloud Okay, so you know, like 354 00:20:00,359 --> 00:20:05,359 Speaker 1: service now are great. Obviously we like cybersecurity cloudfare. N 355 00:20:05,359 --> 00:20:09,680 Speaker 1: e T is a good stock. Um. My favorite e 356 00:20:09,840 --> 00:20:12,640 Speaker 1: V company is actually n i U. It's a Chinese 357 00:20:12,640 --> 00:20:17,120 Speaker 1: company that makes uh electric bicycles and scooters. Um, that's 358 00:20:17,160 --> 00:20:20,800 Speaker 1: my far. My favorite d Q, which makes Polly silicon 359 00:20:20,960 --> 00:20:24,119 Speaker 1: for the solar sales in China is good. Um. We 360 00:20:24,200 --> 00:20:29,119 Speaker 1: also have, you know, the inverter stocks like N's Energy. Louie, 361 00:20:29,160 --> 00:20:30,840 Speaker 1: great to get some time with you, and I hope 362 00:20:30,880 --> 00:20:32,680 Speaker 1: we get to talk to you again a little bit 363 00:20:32,680 --> 00:20:36,920 Speaker 1: more in depth. Louis Navier joining us there, founder and 364 00:20:37,000 --> 00:20:40,240 Speaker 1: CEO of Navier and Associates, talking about the tech stocks 365 00:20:40,240 --> 00:20:45,440 Speaker 1: that he's interested out a Reno, Nevada. This is Bloomberg 366 00:20:48,320 --> 00:20:52,159 Speaker 1: Craig So you're Auto's team leader for Bloomberg News, and 367 00:20:52,200 --> 00:20:55,600 Speaker 1: he's got a fascinating story in the new double issue 368 00:20:55,640 --> 00:20:59,120 Speaker 1: of Bloomberg Business Week magazine entitled the end of Testle's 369 00:20:59,160 --> 00:21:03,640 Speaker 1: Dominance Maybe closer than it appears. Greg, thanks so much 370 00:21:03,640 --> 00:21:06,000 Speaker 1: for joining us here. Talk to us about some of 371 00:21:06,040 --> 00:21:07,960 Speaker 1: the games that are being made by some of the 372 00:21:07,960 --> 00:21:10,520 Speaker 1: traditional automakers. A lot of noise coming out of Volkswagen 373 00:21:10,600 --> 00:21:14,760 Speaker 1: in particular. They had a huge week last week, where 374 00:21:15,040 --> 00:21:18,919 Speaker 1: it really started on Monday with an event that was 375 00:21:19,359 --> 00:21:24,160 Speaker 1: kind of shamelessly similar to Tesla's Battery Day. Volkswagen called 376 00:21:24,200 --> 00:21:27,600 Speaker 1: There's Power Day, but they spent two hours talking about 377 00:21:27,640 --> 00:21:33,639 Speaker 1: their battery strategy, from manufacturing too uh materials to partners 378 00:21:34,000 --> 00:21:37,320 Speaker 1: uh you know, charging stations as well. They really sort 379 00:21:37,359 --> 00:21:39,760 Speaker 1: of covered the gamut, and and you know, it's it's 380 00:21:39,800 --> 00:21:44,400 Speaker 1: interesting because this is a company that really since when 381 00:21:44,400 --> 00:21:47,840 Speaker 1: they were caught with with the diesel emission scandal, they 382 00:21:47,880 --> 00:21:50,120 Speaker 1: really sort of knew right off the bat that they 383 00:21:50,400 --> 00:21:53,720 Speaker 1: needed to make amends. But the auto industry does move 384 00:21:53,720 --> 00:21:56,080 Speaker 1: in product cycles that are you know, five or so 385 00:21:56,240 --> 00:21:58,600 Speaker 1: years and so what we're really seeing is is kind 386 00:21:58,600 --> 00:22:02,280 Speaker 1: of a realization of this you know, change in strategy 387 00:22:02,320 --> 00:22:04,320 Speaker 1: that they were sort of forced to make away from 388 00:22:04,359 --> 00:22:07,560 Speaker 1: diesels and toward electric vehicles. And what we're seeing as 389 00:22:07,600 --> 00:22:09,960 Speaker 1: well is just you know, sort of the initial fruits 390 00:22:09,960 --> 00:22:12,359 Speaker 1: of that that they are now building on to really 391 00:22:12,359 --> 00:22:15,040 Speaker 1: try and become you know, actually that they are coming 392 00:22:15,040 --> 00:22:17,320 Speaker 1: out and saying we want to be the world's biggest 393 00:22:17,359 --> 00:22:22,280 Speaker 1: electric vehicle maker. By so uh, for those folks who 394 00:22:22,280 --> 00:22:26,240 Speaker 1: have ever lived in Germany, we have a uh television 395 00:22:26,280 --> 00:22:30,440 Speaker 1: talk show host called Harold Schmidt. And after David Letterman 396 00:22:30,520 --> 00:22:33,040 Speaker 1: got really popular in the US, Harold Schmidt, who kind 397 00:22:33,040 --> 00:22:34,679 Speaker 1: of looks a little like Letterman, said, you know what, 398 00:22:34,680 --> 00:22:36,639 Speaker 1: I'm just going to do the exact same thing. Where's 399 00:22:36,680 --> 00:22:39,840 Speaker 1: the suit, where's the sneakers? Has the same mimics, his 400 00:22:40,080 --> 00:22:43,400 Speaker 1: mimics Letterman's delivery, just as the whole top ten list, 401 00:22:43,480 --> 00:22:46,720 Speaker 1: the whole thing. But in German is Dee's doing that 402 00:22:46,760 --> 00:22:51,120 Speaker 1: with musk? You know, It's it's interesting. I think that's 403 00:22:51,119 --> 00:22:53,840 Speaker 1: a great question that you know, it's it's not quite 404 00:22:53,880 --> 00:22:55,520 Speaker 1: as bad. I think we had a little fun with 405 00:22:55,520 --> 00:22:57,679 Speaker 1: this story, you know, mentioning the fact that you know, 406 00:22:57,800 --> 00:23:00,920 Speaker 1: Deecee is not dating a pop star, He's not going 407 00:23:00,960 --> 00:23:06,000 Speaker 1: on Joe Rogan. Uh. You know, he is still he 408 00:23:06,160 --> 00:23:09,920 Speaker 1: is still very German. He is definitely much more buttoned up. 409 00:23:10,200 --> 00:23:13,560 Speaker 1: His tweets aren't quite as much. I guess fun is 410 00:23:13,600 --> 00:23:17,199 Speaker 1: a charitable way of putting Musk's Twitter. Um, but you know, 411 00:23:17,280 --> 00:23:20,960 Speaker 1: I do think that he definitely is getting his message 412 00:23:20,960 --> 00:23:23,600 Speaker 1: out there. He only just joined Twitter early this year. 413 00:23:23,960 --> 00:23:26,560 Speaker 1: It was sort of telling that his first post he 414 00:23:26,920 --> 00:23:31,199 Speaker 1: said something about taking market share from Elon and tag elon. Um. 415 00:23:31,240 --> 00:23:34,359 Speaker 1: You know, I think he's been active on LinkedIn, but 416 00:23:34,440 --> 00:23:37,560 Speaker 1: we know that that isn't necessarily the sort of social 417 00:23:37,680 --> 00:23:40,960 Speaker 1: media network of choice for the mean stock crowd. Uh. 418 00:23:41,040 --> 00:23:43,760 Speaker 1: So you know, I do think Volkswagen very much is 419 00:23:43,800 --> 00:23:47,320 Speaker 1: making a concerted effort to get their uh message out 420 00:23:47,359 --> 00:23:50,679 Speaker 1: there where you know, people who've who've bid Tesla up 421 00:23:50,720 --> 00:23:54,480 Speaker 1: to the moon are going to see what they're up to. So, Craig, 422 00:23:54,520 --> 00:23:57,760 Speaker 1: you know, we've heard even some similar language coming out 423 00:23:57,760 --> 00:23:59,920 Speaker 1: of General Motors, Mary Barros saying, you know, makes a 424 00:24:00,040 --> 00:24:04,119 Speaker 1: bold proclamations about their growth and their investment in e 425 00:24:04,280 --> 00:24:06,159 Speaker 1: v s. Here is just just a case of the 426 00:24:06,200 --> 00:24:11,800 Speaker 1: automakers saying, Okay, now we finally see enough global demand 427 00:24:11,840 --> 00:24:14,280 Speaker 1: out there where we can make these things profitable. Is 428 00:24:14,280 --> 00:24:17,000 Speaker 1: that basically what they're all kind of coming to that conclusion. 429 00:24:17,480 --> 00:24:19,760 Speaker 1: I think that's right. I think you know, people give 430 00:24:20,080 --> 00:24:23,560 Speaker 1: Tesla a lot of grief for you know, Elon's sort 431 00:24:23,560 --> 00:24:26,560 Speaker 1: of intricacy, if if you will, But he what he 432 00:24:26,680 --> 00:24:29,879 Speaker 1: has done is really sort of gotten people excited about 433 00:24:29,880 --> 00:24:33,400 Speaker 1: electric vehicles. And I think he's also sort of established that, 434 00:24:33,480 --> 00:24:36,200 Speaker 1: you know, if you make them compelling, people will want 435 00:24:36,240 --> 00:24:39,600 Speaker 1: to buy them. I think you've also got a situation 436 00:24:39,640 --> 00:24:43,280 Speaker 1: where the industry was rightfully concerned that battery prices were 437 00:24:43,320 --> 00:24:45,919 Speaker 1: not u to where they needed to be for this 438 00:24:46,080 --> 00:24:48,840 Speaker 1: to make economic sense for them. And they may still 439 00:24:48,880 --> 00:24:52,520 Speaker 1: not be U where where you know they need to be, uh, 440 00:24:52,600 --> 00:24:55,320 Speaker 1: but but they're getting there. And I think you're seeing 441 00:24:55,480 --> 00:24:59,480 Speaker 1: the industry sort of acknowledge that, yes, there there is 442 00:24:59,560 --> 00:25:02,040 Speaker 1: demand if if you really sort of put your your 443 00:25:02,040 --> 00:25:06,160 Speaker 1: weight behind this effort. And I think you're also seeing 444 00:25:06,480 --> 00:25:10,280 Speaker 1: a sort of push on the part of the regulatory 445 00:25:10,400 --> 00:25:13,159 Speaker 1: side of things where they're seeing, you know, Tesla have 446 00:25:13,280 --> 00:25:16,560 Speaker 1: some success and really using that as as reason to 447 00:25:16,600 --> 00:25:19,360 Speaker 1: put more pressure on the likes of you know, Volkswagen 448 00:25:19,440 --> 00:25:21,639 Speaker 1: or General Motors or what have you. I think we 449 00:25:21,680 --> 00:25:24,920 Speaker 1: will see the US sort of follow suit. We we've 450 00:25:24,960 --> 00:25:28,119 Speaker 1: seen a lot of action out of the EU and China, 451 00:25:28,400 --> 00:25:31,440 Speaker 1: and you know, you do have expectations that the Bimen 452 00:25:31,480 --> 00:25:35,000 Speaker 1: administration is going to sort of go back, uh, you know, 453 00:25:35,160 --> 00:25:38,600 Speaker 1: more more towards where the Obama administration was in terms 454 00:25:38,640 --> 00:25:41,920 Speaker 1: of you know, their approach to regulating the auto industry. 455 00:25:42,520 --> 00:25:47,000 Speaker 1: So Bloomberg readers that are paying close attention um will 456 00:25:47,000 --> 00:25:50,600 Speaker 1: know that Craig Trudale has more experience covering the global 457 00:25:50,640 --> 00:25:53,280 Speaker 1: auto sector than I think any other reporter in the world. 458 00:25:53,359 --> 00:25:58,320 Speaker 1: You've been in Detroit, right, you covered the Big Three there, 459 00:25:58,359 --> 00:26:01,880 Speaker 1: you went to Asia covered auto makers there, You're now 460 00:26:02,000 --> 00:26:05,000 Speaker 1: running our coverage here in Europe. Who do you think 461 00:26:05,119 --> 00:26:11,600 Speaker 1: is best positioned too to claim global dominance in e vs? 462 00:26:12,720 --> 00:26:15,960 Speaker 1: I think in terms of the company that has the 463 00:26:16,040 --> 00:26:20,200 Speaker 1: resources and the sort of existing scale and and the wherewithal, 464 00:26:20,600 --> 00:26:23,040 Speaker 1: it's no doubt about it, it's Volkswagen. I think the 465 00:26:23,440 --> 00:26:26,400 Speaker 1: question is, you know, sort of how quickly can this 466 00:26:26,480 --> 00:26:29,280 Speaker 1: company that has a lot of um, you know, sort 467 00:26:29,280 --> 00:26:32,640 Speaker 1: of factions within it a lot of key stakeholders who 468 00:26:32,680 --> 00:26:35,639 Speaker 1: don't always agree. How quickly can Herbert Dace kind of 469 00:26:35,680 --> 00:26:38,480 Speaker 1: get everybody rowing in the same direction. You know, I 470 00:26:38,760 --> 00:26:42,040 Speaker 1: think we had the hyper Drive newsletter that I'll plug 471 00:26:42,240 --> 00:26:45,639 Speaker 1: while I'm on here today that you know, took a 472 00:26:45,680 --> 00:26:47,440 Speaker 1: look at the idea that this is. This is a 473 00:26:47,520 --> 00:26:51,200 Speaker 1: CEO who just late last year his job status is 474 00:26:51,240 --> 00:26:53,320 Speaker 1: kind of up in the air because you know, it's 475 00:26:53,359 --> 00:26:57,000 Speaker 1: really cutthroat in Volfsberg Um and you know, so there 476 00:26:57,040 --> 00:27:00,080 Speaker 1: there is going to be a challenge of just, you know, 477 00:27:00,320 --> 00:27:02,720 Speaker 1: how quickly is he able to sort of phase out 478 00:27:02,760 --> 00:27:06,840 Speaker 1: the combustion era at Volkswagen and really ushering and electric era. 479 00:27:07,240 --> 00:27:09,399 Speaker 1: And that's going to be the question for me as 480 00:27:09,560 --> 00:27:12,280 Speaker 1: as to, you know, how quickly can they really give 481 00:27:12,320 --> 00:27:17,040 Speaker 1: Tesla run for their money. So, Craig, you're based in London, 482 00:27:17,160 --> 00:27:19,399 Speaker 1: Matt's in Berlin. Let me ask you too, what's this? 483 00:27:19,480 --> 00:27:22,080 Speaker 1: What's the demand like on the ground in Europe? Generally 484 00:27:22,080 --> 00:27:25,520 Speaker 1: for evis you see an awful lot. I would be 485 00:27:25,560 --> 00:27:28,239 Speaker 1: interested to hear what Matt is seeing in Berlin. But 486 00:27:28,560 --> 00:27:31,920 Speaker 1: walking around London and obviously in these you know, lockdown times, 487 00:27:31,920 --> 00:27:34,800 Speaker 1: all you can really do is walk around. Uh you know, 488 00:27:34,880 --> 00:27:37,600 Speaker 1: you do see an awful lot of of cars plugged 489 00:27:37,640 --> 00:27:41,720 Speaker 1: into lamp posts over here, a lot of um, you know, 490 00:27:41,840 --> 00:27:45,880 Speaker 1: BMW I three's, which um, you know, I've always thought 491 00:27:45,920 --> 00:27:49,280 Speaker 1: are are very unfortunate looking, but they are. They are 492 00:27:49,320 --> 00:27:54,399 Speaker 1: pretty pretty neat little cars evolved on that, you do. 493 00:27:54,520 --> 00:27:56,400 Speaker 1: I hated them at first, but I actually love them 494 00:27:56,400 --> 00:27:58,960 Speaker 1: now now that I've lived around them for so long. 495 00:27:59,320 --> 00:28:01,679 Speaker 1: I think the out Etron looks like it's a pretty 496 00:28:01,680 --> 00:28:05,240 Speaker 1: dominant player right now. Um, and I think that might 497 00:28:05,280 --> 00:28:08,399 Speaker 1: be what consumers want. A car that looks more like 498 00:28:08,440 --> 00:28:12,040 Speaker 1: a regular car, like an Audi A five and Etron 499 00:28:12,119 --> 00:28:15,119 Speaker 1: looks like that than UM and I three, which looks like, 500 00:28:15,160 --> 00:28:17,240 Speaker 1: I don't know what, it looks like nothing bon w 501 00:28:17,359 --> 00:28:20,119 Speaker 1: ever made before, and that could be the key. But Craig, 502 00:28:20,160 --> 00:28:22,280 Speaker 1: you hit on the one thing that we need more of, 503 00:28:22,400 --> 00:28:25,840 Speaker 1: and it's charging stations, right Yeah. Absolutely, I think the 504 00:28:26,160 --> 00:28:29,960 Speaker 1: charging infrastructure issue is still a really big problem. I think, 505 00:28:30,359 --> 00:28:33,639 Speaker 1: especially you know, you think about city centers and people 506 00:28:33,680 --> 00:28:37,119 Speaker 1: who who rent and don't necessarily uh you know, have 507 00:28:37,200 --> 00:28:41,520 Speaker 1: a place to park a garage. So I bring up 508 00:28:41,520 --> 00:28:43,880 Speaker 1: the lamp post is something that I see a ton 509 00:28:43,920 --> 00:28:47,760 Speaker 1: in London and did not see around New York obviously. 510 00:28:48,360 --> 00:28:50,640 Speaker 1: Uh but but I also think, you know, even in 511 00:28:50,760 --> 00:28:53,600 Speaker 1: rural areas as as well. You know, you you do 512 00:28:53,680 --> 00:28:56,800 Speaker 1: have obviously the ability for for folks to charge in 513 00:28:56,840 --> 00:29:01,680 Speaker 1: their garages, which are more common, but charging stations definitely 514 00:29:01,720 --> 00:29:04,200 Speaker 1: being needed for longer trips, and that being you know, 515 00:29:04,280 --> 00:29:06,800 Speaker 1: still a concern for people that's going to keep them 516 00:29:06,840 --> 00:29:09,960 Speaker 1: from from making the jump. Very cool, Craig, thanks so 517 00:29:10,040 --> 00:29:12,320 Speaker 1: much for joining us. Craig Trudell wrote the story the 518 00:29:12,400 --> 00:29:14,800 Speaker 1: end of Tesla's dominance may be closer than it appears, 519 00:29:14,800 --> 00:29:17,080 Speaker 1: a bellegially coming up in Business Week. And of course 520 00:29:17,120 --> 00:29:21,280 Speaker 1: you can get the hyper Drive newsletter on Bloomberg as well. 521 00:29:22,960 --> 00:29:26,080 Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can 522 00:29:26,080 --> 00:29:29,880 Speaker 1: subscribe and listen to interviews with Apple Podcasts or whatever 523 00:29:29,960 --> 00:29:33,640 Speaker 1: podcast platform you prefer. I'm Matt Miller. I'm on Twitter 524 00:29:33,880 --> 00:29:37,720 Speaker 1: at Matt Miller three. On Fall Sweeney, I'm on Twitter 525 00:29:37,760 --> 00:29:40,600 Speaker 1: at pt Sweeney. Before the podcast, you can always catch 526 00:29:40,680 --> 00:29:42,240 Speaker 1: us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio