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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch Just Live weekdays at

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Speaker 1: noon Eastern on Apple car Play and then Proud Auto

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Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you

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Speaker 1: get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: Congress is getting ready to shift into full campaign mode

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Speaker 2: after voting today on a Continuing Resolution that is expected

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Speaker 2: to pass both the House and Senate that will keep

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Speaker 2: the government funded through December twentieth. They're all going to

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Speaker 2: get out of town and focus on winning their re

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Speaker 2: election races. But before that happens, we do still have

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Speaker 2: some time to spend with lawmakers on Capitol Hill, and

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Speaker 2: one of them is joining us live from there.

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Speaker 3: Now.

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Speaker 2: I'm pleased to say Democratic Congressman Brad Schneider at Illinois

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Speaker 2: is with us here on Bloomberg. Sir, welcome back to

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Speaker 2: the program. It's great to have you. Obviously, unless something

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Speaker 2: goes unforeseen varriably wrong today with the Continuing Resolution, it

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Speaker 2: will pass, a shutdown will be avoided, as we've all

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Speaker 2: expected here in Washington, it will be, and the can

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Speaker 2: will get kicked down the road again. My question to

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Speaker 2: you is did it really need to be this way?

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Speaker 2: Do we really have to do this whole song and

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Speaker 2: dance over again in December?

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Speaker 3: Yeah?

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Speaker 4: No, of course not, and that's what's so frustrating. So yes,

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Speaker 4: hopefully we will pass the bill. It's notable that it's

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Speaker 4: not going to be passed under a rule, but under

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Speaker 4: suspension because Speaker Johnson doesn't have the support of his

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Speaker 4: party to move this through. But it's expected to pass

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Speaker 4: the bipartisan But it's not we're not passing a budget.

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Speaker 4: We're just kicking the can to December twentieth, because for

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Speaker 4: the last six months we haven't been having the substance

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Speaker 4: of conversations, discussions across the aisle with Democrats and Republicans

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Speaker 4: about how do we want to fund our government, what

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Speaker 4: should be our priorities, how to make the hard decisions

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Speaker 4: that ultimately will have to be made before we pass

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Speaker 4: the fisk Her twenty five budget.

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Speaker 2: Well, and sir, when we contin when we consider those

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Speaker 2: across the aisle conversations. When everybody comes back to Washington

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Speaker 2: after the election, it'll be with the knowledge of whether

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Speaker 2: you're staying in the minority or will have moved to

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Speaker 2: the majority, whether or not the speaker will be looking

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Speaker 2: at the prospects of still being speaker again, depending on

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Speaker 2: what the new Congress looks like. Is he the most

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Speaker 2: honest broker Democrats could hope to work with, or are

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Speaker 2: you hoping there will be a change in Republican leadership.

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Speaker 3: Well, I'm not going to talk about Republican leadership.

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Speaker 4: I hope there's going to be a change in House leadership,

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Speaker 4: that the Democrats will retake the majority. I'll remind everybody

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Speaker 4: that in the last Congress, Democrats had a five CEA majority,

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Speaker 4: the same margin that the Republicans started.

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Speaker 3: In this Congress. And in the last Congress, we were

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Speaker 3: able to pass.

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Speaker 4: Significant major legislation, much of it, most of it in

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Speaker 4: a bipartisan way. This Congress, what we've seen is a

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Speaker 4: Congress that hasn't been able to do anything or almost anything,

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Speaker 4: and it's.

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Speaker 3: Been exceedingly frustrating.

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Speaker 4: So I hope when we come back that the Demokrats

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Speaker 4: love the majority, will be on a course to elect

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Speaker 4: King Jeffries as a Speaker, and that in the next Congress,

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Speaker 4: beginning in January, we'll get back to the table, roll

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Speaker 4: up our sleeves and get the work of the American

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Speaker 4: people done.

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Speaker 2: Well, of course, some of that work you do from

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Speaker 2: your role as a member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee.

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Speaker 2: So with that seat in mind, Sir, i'd like to

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Speaker 2: ask you about what we're seeing in the Middle East.

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Speaker 2: The Associated Press is now reporting today that the Israeli

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Speaker 2: military is preparing for a possible ground operation in Lebanon.

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Speaker 2: This is according to the Israeli Army chief. It of

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Speaker 2: course comes as we're seeing escalation in the exchange of

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Speaker 2: fire on Israel's northern border. Missile was sent toward Masad

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Speaker 2: near Tel Aviv that Israel intercepted today. Where do you

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Speaker 2: see all of this going, Sir? Is Israel wise to

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Speaker 2: be looking at a potential ground operation or should they

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Speaker 2: be doing everything they can to de escalate?

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Speaker 4: Well, I think both can be true at the same time,

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Speaker 4: and you have to start where did this begin? On

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Speaker 4: October seventh, as everyone knows, Hamas invaded Israel from Gaza,

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Speaker 4: brutally murdered twelve hundred people to two hundred fifty people hostage,

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Speaker 4: and started the war that has been raging for almost

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Speaker 4: a year in Gaza. What's also notable is on the

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Speaker 4: next day, the very next day, October eighth, his Ballas

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Speaker 4: started firing rockets into Israel in support of Amas, and

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Speaker 4: that has been going on now for again almost a year.

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Speaker 4: More than eighty five hundred rockets, missiles, drones, anti tank

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Speaker 4: weapons have been fired by his Balla into Israel. Israel

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Speaker 4: has been responding and it has continued to escalate. Eighty

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Speaker 4: thousand people have been evacuated from the border communities in Israel.

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Speaker 4: Probably an equal number of Lebanese civilians have been evacuated,

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Speaker 4: civilians who are not a part of Hisbola but are

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Speaker 4: suffering the consequences of his Balla's actions. So what Israel

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Speaker 4: is doing is taking action against is Bola to try

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Speaker 4: to secure its communities.

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Speaker 3: On the border with Lebanon.

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Speaker 4: But this has also miss sorry to give security to

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Speaker 4: the people in Lebanon, who unfortunately are under the.

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Speaker 3: Thumb of his ball.

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Speaker 2: Well, and what role do you see the US playing here?

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Speaker 2: If this continues to ramp up and we see more

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Speaker 2: outward conflict between Israel and Hezballah, is there going to

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Speaker 2: be an added need for the US military presence in

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Speaker 2: the region or just more arms support. What exactly should

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Speaker 2: the expectation be on what this administration and this Congress,

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Speaker 2: frankly is willing to provide.

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Speaker 4: I think the first thing you see is that the

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Speaker 4: administration is continuing to try to create the off ramps

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Speaker 4: Almos Hochstein is in the region. President Biden has been

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Speaker 4: committed to trying to de escalate and create the space

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Speaker 4: to move his Balla back from the Israeli border and

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Speaker 4: try to resolve the disputes peacefully.

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Speaker 3: I think the United States will continue to do that.

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Speaker 4: At the same time, going back to October eighth, when

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Speaker 4: as Balla started striking, President Biden is very clear when

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Speaker 4: he's said don't, but he also backed up his words

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Speaker 4: by sending aircraft characters into the region.

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Speaker 3: We continue to support.

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Speaker 4: Israel and Israel's right to defend itself, but we also

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Speaker 4: should be supporting the Lebanese people.

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Speaker 3: They've suffered. Lebanon.

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Speaker 4: The economy is literally on its back, not even on

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Speaker 4: its kneeze. The government is dysfunctional, all because his Bola

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Speaker 4: and his Bola is backed by Iran. Ultimately, it is

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Speaker 4: Iran who is responsible is holding back Lebanon from the

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Speaker 4: possibility of moving forward. So I think the United States

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Speaker 4: has a role to play there, and ultimately, as President

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Speaker 4: Biden said, Israel has a right to defend itself.

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Speaker 3: The United States will stand with Israel as she does.

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Speaker 2: So I'd like to ask you about another conflict as well,

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Speaker 2: the ongoing war in Ukraine. As the Ukrainian President, vladimir's Lynsky,

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Speaker 2: spoke at the United Nations General Assembly in New York today.

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Speaker 2: Here is a tasterer of what he said, and I

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Speaker 2: have a question for you after greenails.

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Speaker 5: Will never accept, will never accept why anyone need to do?

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Speaker 5: World believes that such a brutal colonial past, which suits

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Speaker 5: no one today, can be imposed on Ukraine now instead

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Speaker 5: of a normal peaceful life. Do not divide the world,

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Speaker 5: be United Nations and that will bring us peace.

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Speaker 2: Congressman, of course, Zelensky will be traveling from New York

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Speaker 2: down here to Washington. He will in fact be on

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Speaker 2: Capitol Hill tomorrow meeting with some of your colleagues before

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Speaker 2: everyone leaves town. Should he, in his visit to Washington

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Speaker 2: feel confident that he's going to be able to count

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Speaker 2: on the same support from a Congress or any future

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Speaker 2: administration as Ukraine has had to this point.

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Speaker 4: I think I'll take us back to a question we

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Speaker 4: asked earlier about who is in the majority next year

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Speaker 4: in Congress. Democrats have state committed to Ukraine throughout this war.

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Speaker 4: Will spend more than thirty months since Russia initiated it's

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Speaker 4: invasion in February of twenty twenty two. As Lensky said,

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Speaker 4: and the piece I heard, and I have not heard

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Speaker 4: his whole speech yet, but he talked about the will

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Speaker 4: of the desire of the Ukrainian.

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Speaker 3: People to remain independent.

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Speaker 4: Just after the start of the war, I heard the

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Speaker 4: Ukrainian ambassador speak here in Washington saying that the previous

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Speaker 4: thirty years since the fall of the Soviet Union was

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Speaker 4: the longest period of independence for Ukraine in hundreds of years,

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Speaker 4: and that the people who had come to appreciate their independence,

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Speaker 4: appreciate their freedom. We're going to fight for that freedom

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Speaker 4: with every ounce of energy that they have. And the

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Speaker 4: Ukrainians have continued that fight. They have fought nobly and

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Speaker 4: bravely against the Russians and the West under the leadership

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Speaker 4: of President Biden. But working with our allies in Europe

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Speaker 4: and other allies around the world, have helped ensure that

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Speaker 4: Ukraine can sustain its fight, and we need to make

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Speaker 4: sure that it sustains it fight and that Russia cannot

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Speaker 4: get either a strategic victory or ultimately take over Ukraine completely.

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Speaker 2: Will you, sir, be meeting with Zelensky tomorrow or do

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Speaker 2: you know of your colleagues who will be.

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Speaker 3: I will not be about who's meeting.

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Speaker 4: I'm not aware of any Foreign Affairs Committee meeting with

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Speaker 4: President Zelensky. If something changes, I would love that opportunity.

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Speaker 2: Well, finally, before we let you go, sir, we have

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Speaker 2: about a minute left. It's not just Foreign Affairs on

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Speaker 2: which you sit, but you're also on the Ways and

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Speaker 2: Means Committee. Knowing Kamala Harris is about to just about

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Speaker 2: two hours from now give a speech on the manufacturing economy,

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Speaker 2: in which she may mention tax policy and raising the

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Speaker 2: rates on, say corporations or those with more than a

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Speaker 2: million dollars in income their capital gains tax rate. To

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Speaker 2: what extent can she reliably say those are policies that

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Speaker 2: stand a chance of passing Congress, Knowing we very may

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Speaker 2: well end up with divided government even if she does

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Speaker 2: win the election in November.

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Speaker 4: Well, irrespective of who wins November, we know that provisions

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Speaker 4: of the twenty seventeen tax code.

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Speaker 3: Are going to expire and at the end of next.

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Speaker 4: Year, So Ways and means in particular, but the House

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Speaker 4: and the Senate as a whole, we'll be digging deeply

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Speaker 4: into the tax code and trying to develop new policy,

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Speaker 4: hopefully new policy that will stand the test of time.

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Speaker 4: And whatever tax policy we have has to be one

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Speaker 4: that makes sure American companies, American workers compete on a

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Speaker 4: global stage, that we're investing in new innovations, new products,

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Speaker 4: that we're training our workers, that we're developing the workforce

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Speaker 4: for the future by investing in our kids. And so

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Speaker 4: what I'm hopeful for next years we open up the

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Speaker 4: tax code and take what I believe and hope will

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Speaker 4: be a deliberative and engage and hopefully bipartisan approach to

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Speaker 4: tax policy. We'll have policy that ensures in American companies

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Speaker 4: lead the way.

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Speaker 2: All right, Congressman, thank you so much for joining us

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Speaker 2: that Democratic Congressman Bratschneider of Illinois live on Capitol Hill.

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Speaker 6: Right here on Bloomberg TV and Radio.

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Speaker 2: Thirty the many stories our wonderful news team is producing,

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Speaker 2: and one of the most red stories on the Bloomberg

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Speaker 2: terminal today has a headline that reads as follows x

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Speaker 2: NFL linebacker duel Senator Cruise in surprise Texas Nailbier. As

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Speaker 2: you might be able to guess, this is about the

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Speaker 2: Texas Senate race in which the incumbent Republican Ted Cruz

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Speaker 2: is facing a challenger from Democratic Congressman Colin Alred, who yes,

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Speaker 2: used to play football. Of course, Texas is the state

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Speaker 2: Democrats have long dream of being able to claim could

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Speaker 2: go blue.

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Speaker 6: It is for now firmly read.

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Speaker 2: Of course, we saw in twenty eighteen Beto O'Rourke try

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Speaker 2: to unseat Ted Cruz. He lost that race by relatively

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Speaker 2: narrow margin. It does seem, though, looking at poles, that

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Speaker 2: all much chances might be a little bit better depending

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Speaker 2: on which poll, of course, you're looking at. We got

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Speaker 2: one from Morning Consult just last week that found Allread

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Speaker 2: was actually leading Cruise by a single percentage point, which

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Speaker 2: does leave us in.

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Speaker 6: The margin of error.

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Speaker 2: So as we consider this race and the other down

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Speaker 2: ballot races to watch. Let's assemble now our political panel.

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Speaker 2: Janie Shanzeno, Senior Democracy Fellow at the Center for the

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Speaker 2: Study of the Presidency and Congress, Today with Lester Munson,

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Speaker 2: of course, principle of the International Practice at BGR Group

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Speaker 2: and Republican strategist. Lester is the Republican I'll come to

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Speaker 2: you first. Obviously, Ted Cruz has faced challenges in the past,

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Speaker 2: as I've mentioned, But does he have more reason to

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Speaker 2: worry this cycle? Do you actually think he has a

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Speaker 2: risk of being unseated.

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Speaker 7: Well, I think it's going to be a close race.

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Speaker 7: How I think it's less risky than it looks, but

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Speaker 7: it will be close. Cruz lost or beat Beto o'rouric

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Speaker 7: six years ago by two and a half points. That's

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Speaker 7: not much Texas went two years later, Texas went for

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Speaker 7: Trump by five and a half points. So Cruise trails

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Speaker 7: Trump and polling he's less popular than Trump is in Texas.

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Speaker 7: I think he's still going to win. Colin Allred is

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Speaker 7: a serious guy. He's a charismatic guy. He's a good

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Speaker 7: candidate as far as I can tell. He's making this

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Speaker 7: thing close. But I think at the end of the day,

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Speaker 7: Texas is probably going to stay Red on this race.

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Speaker 2: Well, so, Genie, I do wonder what outcome it could

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Speaker 2: actually define victory here for the Democrats, if not a

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Speaker 2: victory for Colin all Red outright? Would it be enough

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Speaker 2: to just force money to be spent in Texas where

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Speaker 2: it could have been spent other places and what was

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Speaker 2: more understood to be the competitive races?

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Speaker 8: Absolutely, and the spending in this race is enormous. I

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Speaker 8: have to take exception to my friend Lester. I have

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Speaker 8: a few friendly bets on this Texas race and I

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Speaker 8: am gonna I know you do, Jerry, Yeah, that's right,

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Speaker 8: Kayley right, And I'm going to bet Lester. I think

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Speaker 8: Alred can pull this off. Not only did o'roork come close,

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Speaker 8: but Allred, to Lester's point, is an exceptional candidate. He's

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Speaker 8: got an incredible life story. He is more moderate than

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Speaker 8: Beto O'Rourke was. He has an enormous amount of funding

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Speaker 8: and support on his side. And you can see Ted

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Speaker 8: Cruz struggling to talk about his bipartisanship and the work

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Speaker 8: he's done across the aisle, all of the things that

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Speaker 8: we never expect to hear from Ted Cruz, who used

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Speaker 8: to be the firebrand, you know candidate. So I think

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Speaker 8: Allred does have a real shot here. But even if

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Speaker 8: he doesn't come through and win, which you will, I

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Speaker 8: think it is important because it really does show how

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Speaker 8: this state has shifted. It is turning increasingly purplish. I

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Speaker 8: know a young man who just moved to Dallas and

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Speaker 8: to work. You see a lot of people going down

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Speaker 8: there working. And Julie's great piece in the on Bloomberg

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Speaker 8: today she talks about the democraphic changes. We don't know

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Speaker 8: the impact because they don't have to register as a

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Speaker 8: party or for a party when they when they go

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Speaker 8: to a register to vote, So we don't know what

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Speaker 8: the impact of these Democrat demographic shifts are, but they

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Speaker 8: may be potentially big.

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Speaker 9: Yeah.

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Speaker 2: An excellent point and a well deserved shout out to

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Speaker 2: our colleague Julie Fine, our Texaspirit chief, who is the

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Speaker 2: byeline on this story, on this race. Of course, she

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Speaker 2: has long been warning us here at Bloomberg to keep

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Speaker 2: an eye on this one because she does think it

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Speaker 2: can be competitive. Of course, there's other races we're keeping

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Speaker 2: more of an eye on now than we may have otherwise.

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Speaker 2: Earlier in the cycle, including in Florida Lester, where this

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Speaker 2: is another instance in which you have in in a

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Speaker 2: Republican incumbent who is facing a Democratic challenger. The incumbent

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Speaker 2: in this case, of course, Senator Rick Scott. The polls

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Speaker 2: are close in this race as well, perhaps not as

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Speaker 2: close as in the crew's already race. But what do

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Speaker 2: you think is more likely that Rick Scott could get

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Speaker 2: unseated or that Ted Cruz could.

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Speaker 7: Oh, I think it's more likely Cruz is going to

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Speaker 7: lose than Scott. Scott's a popular figure in Florida. He's

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Speaker 7: a two term governor, He's done pretty well in his career.

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Speaker 7: He's not as quite as iconoclastic as Ted Cruz is.

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Speaker 7: And to Genie's earlier point, you know, Ted Cruz is

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Speaker 7: by partisan. He often teams up with the Democrats to

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Speaker 7: oppose what Mitch McConnell is doing. So he does have

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Speaker 7: some things he could brag about in that respect. But

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Speaker 7: I think I think Rick Scott and Ted Cruz, both

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Speaker 7: at the end of the day, might be a little

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Speaker 7: more marginal in Texas, are going to prevail.

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Speaker 9: Well.

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Speaker 2: And of course a lot of this may come down

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Speaker 2: to money as well as we were noting with Genie,

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Speaker 2: there's a lot of money being spent in some of

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Speaker 2: these races where Republicans especially are having to allocate resources

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Speaker 2: when they might prefer to instead just focus on say

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Speaker 2: Montana in Ohio, where the incumbent Democrats are exceptionally vulnerable

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Speaker 2: as we consider the money lester. Obviously, there's been reporting

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Speaker 2: this about the Trump campaign not giving to the same

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Speaker 2: extent the Harris campaign has to the congressional and senatorial

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Speaker 2: campaign committees on the Republican side. To what extent is

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Speaker 2: that concerning knowing that the Republicans, the Republican congressional and

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Speaker 2: senatorial committees have been being outraised by their Democratic counterparts.

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Speaker 7: Well, Democrats are outraising Republicans across the board. Harris has

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Speaker 7: a huge fundraising advantage over Trump in Texas, as we're

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Speaker 7: just discussing, already has more money in the bank than

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Speaker 7: Cruz does. So, by the way, one of the things

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Speaker 7: Democrats do when the Republicans outraise them start talking about

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Speaker 7: campaign finance reform as if it's a national emergency. It's

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Speaker 7: weird that they're not doing that now, probably because they're

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Speaker 7: doing they're doing so on this regard, maybe Republicans should

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Speaker 7: be talking about campaign finance reform. I think at the

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Speaker 7: end of the day, the money advantage for Democrats and

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Speaker 7: all seriousness is a little bit baked in. Republicans have

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Speaker 7: a better effort on the earned media side. In other words,

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Speaker 7: they can go out and grab headlines by saying provocative

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Speaker 7: things and kind of challenging the system. So it kind

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Speaker 7: of balances, in my mind at least to kind of

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Speaker 7: these campaign advantages kind of balance out at the end,

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Speaker 7: and neither one of them is really going to be determinative.

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Speaker 7: Is all of these races are going to be close

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Speaker 7: house Senate President? They're really coin flips at this point.

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Speaker 2: Well, and your earned media point is certainly a good one.

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Speaker 2: That genie, as we know, has been a specialty of

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Speaker 2: Donald Trump. He may not have the actual war chest

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Speaker 2: advantage against Kamala Harris, but he is an expert at

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Speaker 2: getting that media attention. Do you think it's working as

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Speaker 2: well this time? Or has Kamala Harris been able to

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Speaker 2: compete with him on that front, giving just the very

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Speaker 2: unique nature of her candidacy and how short it has

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Speaker 2: been to this point.

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Speaker 8: Any the young people, yes, can you hear me?

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Speaker 6: Yep? Now? We can, and here we go.

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Speaker 8: Thanks my fault, she has been able to compete. I

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Speaker 8: was just talking to young people who spend a lot

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Speaker 8: of time in the digital world, and they were talking

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Speaker 8: about the fact that she's been able to compete, not

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Speaker 8: necessarily because the campaign itself is doing that, but because

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Speaker 8: people who are listening to the campaign and taking things

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Speaker 8: like Donald Trump talking about Haitians eating cats and dogs

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Speaker 8: and creating meme after meme after meme about that, and

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Speaker 8: those have gotten millions and millions of views. So Donald

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Speaker 8: Trump's rather undisciplined campaign, it does get him that earned media.

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Speaker 8: He's the kidnap earned media, as Lester was talking about.

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Speaker 8: But it also has resulted in Kamala Harris having sort

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Speaker 8: of advocates on her side who take some of the

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Speaker 8: off the wall things he is saying and make them

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Speaker 8: into memes that really do go viral. So she's able

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Speaker 8: to compete in that realm. She also is able to

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Speaker 8: compete from the money. And just to go back to

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Speaker 8: the Senate, I think it a year ago we were

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Speaker 8: here talking about Democrats having a shot of holding the Senate.

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Speaker 8: None of us would have believed it because the math

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Speaker 8: is so much in the favor of Republicans, and that

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Speaker 8: really does speak to how much this campaign really has

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Speaker 8: depended on good candidates on both sides. And I would

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Speaker 8: say Shi and Montana and all writ in Texas on

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Speaker 8: both sides are example of keeping this really really tight.

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Speaker 2: And of course there's Larry Hogan to consider in Maryland

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Speaker 2: as well, who was a four very popular governor of

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Speaker 2: the state now running against Angela. Also Brooks, the Democrat.

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Speaker 2: That's all on the Senate side, Leicester. We have to

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Speaker 2: consider the House here as well in our final couple

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Speaker 2: of minutes, because of course Mike Johnson is going to,

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Speaker 2: under suspension of the rules, be able to pass a

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Speaker 2: continuing resolution out of his chamber today after failing on

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Speaker 2: Plan A, which was a six month continuing resolution with

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Speaker 2: the Save Act attached. Going out for the election season,

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Speaker 2: on that kind of performance, when you know, coming back

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Speaker 2: in November, you're going to know if you're still the

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Speaker 2: majority or put down to the minority.

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Speaker 6: What does his future look like realistically.

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Speaker 7: Well, first of all, to kind of echo what Genie said,

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Speaker 7: you know, a year ago, if we thought Mike Johnson

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Speaker 7: would still be I'm not even sure he was speaker

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Speaker 7: a year ago. If we thought Mike Mike Johnson would

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Speaker 7: would still be in this position as Speaker through these

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Speaker 7: last few months. I think we'd all be amazed. And

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Speaker 7: so he's done quite well just to stay where he is.

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Speaker 7: He's survived these votes before where he needs Democrats to

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Speaker 7: come over and support him on the budget to get

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Speaker 7: things done and avoid a government shutdown. I think he's

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Speaker 7: going to survive this one, I think, and I realized

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Speaker 7: I may sound a little glasses half full Republican here.

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Speaker 7: I've seen him grow in office. He has demonstrated leadership.

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Speaker 7: He got the Ukraine aid package across the finish line,

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Speaker 7: maybe a little later than we all wanted, but he

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Speaker 7: got it done. It was very significant. I've seen him

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Speaker 7: take take these responsibilities on his shoulders and do it

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Speaker 7: in a dignified and responsible way while trying to keep

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Speaker 7: his caucus as organized as he can. So I think

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Speaker 7: I would give I would put my money if I

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Speaker 7: were a betting person, I would put my money on

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Speaker 7: him being able to stay as the top dog in

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Speaker 7: with the Republicans regardless of what happens on election Day.

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Speaker 2: All Right, Lester Munson is betting on Johnson. Jeanie Shanzino

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Speaker 2: is betting on Colin Alred in Texas our political panel today.

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Speaker 2: Thank you both so much for joining me, and we'll

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Speaker 2: have more straight ahead here on Balance of Power on

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg TV and radio.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

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Speaker 1: Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Emo car Play

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Speaker 6: Right here on Bloomberg.

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Speaker 2: We are preparing about an hour and a half from

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Speaker 2: now to bring you some remarks live from Vice President

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Speaker 2: and na Kamala Harris as she speaks at the Economic

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Speaker 2: Club of Pittsburgh yes in the critical battleground state of Pennsylvania,

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Speaker 2: with remarks that will be targeted specifically on the economy

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Speaker 2: and the manufacturing economy. At that they, of course, will

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Speaker 2: follow Donald Trump giving remarks of his own in Savannah,

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Speaker 2: Georgia yesterday talking about manufacturing, primarily focusing on tariffs and

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00:23:21,320 --> 00:23:26,000
Speaker 2: taxes as ways to incentify, incentivize making more in America.

440
00:23:26,040 --> 00:23:29,200
Speaker 2: So the question today is what messaging, what policy could

441
00:23:29,600 --> 00:23:32,080
Speaker 2: Harris put forward and to what extent will it resonate

442
00:23:32,359 --> 00:23:34,760
Speaker 2: with these key groups of voters that she is trying

443
00:23:34,800 --> 00:23:38,080
Speaker 2: to target in states like Pennsylvania. So to help us

444
00:23:38,600 --> 00:23:41,119
Speaker 2: answer these messaging questions, I'm pleased to say joining us

445
00:23:41,160 --> 00:23:43,480
Speaker 2: now here on balance of power is Aisha Mills, a

446
00:23:43,520 --> 00:23:47,359
Speaker 2: Democratic political strategist and social impact advisor.

447
00:23:47,520 --> 00:23:49,840
Speaker 6: Welcome to Bloomberry. Ayisha, great to have you.

448
00:23:50,280 --> 00:23:53,320
Speaker 2: So as Harris specifically, it seems, is looking at blue

449
00:23:53,359 --> 00:23:56,120
Speaker 2: collar workers here with this notion of trying to create

450
00:23:56,160 --> 00:23:59,399
Speaker 2: a vision of the manufacturing economy. What is it that

451
00:23:59,440 --> 00:24:01,800
Speaker 2: they need to here? And therefore, what is it that

452
00:24:01,840 --> 00:24:03,520
Speaker 2: she needs to say?

453
00:24:03,840 --> 00:24:06,119
Speaker 10: M hm, So, KAYLEI, thank you so much for having me.

454
00:24:06,160 --> 00:24:08,680
Speaker 10: It's great to be here. I want to just kind

455
00:24:08,680 --> 00:24:10,520
Speaker 10: of step back for a second because I know that

456
00:24:10,600 --> 00:24:13,919
Speaker 10: what happens in all of the political conversations is that

457
00:24:13,960 --> 00:24:17,960
Speaker 10: we tend to like to marginalize ourselves into factions. Right, So,

458
00:24:18,000 --> 00:24:20,520
Speaker 10: you've got the working class over here and the blue

459
00:24:20,560 --> 00:24:24,040
Speaker 10: collar workers over here, as if they are divorced from

460
00:24:24,400 --> 00:24:29,120
Speaker 10: the manufacturing companies themselves and the corporations who are manufacturing

461
00:24:29,160 --> 00:24:31,480
Speaker 10: goods but then also purchasing those goods and needing to

462
00:24:31,960 --> 00:24:34,480
Speaker 10: use those goods in their own business lines. And so

463
00:24:34,960 --> 00:24:36,959
Speaker 10: I think that what it is really important for us

464
00:24:36,960 --> 00:24:40,160
Speaker 10: to do is to remember that the economy is powered

465
00:24:40,280 --> 00:24:44,159
Speaker 10: by workers, and that we also need to understand that

466
00:24:44,240 --> 00:24:46,640
Speaker 10: there is such a deep connective tissue there that it's

467
00:24:46,680 --> 00:24:49,760
Speaker 10: not just them versus us, And that is the thing

468
00:24:49,840 --> 00:24:52,280
Speaker 10: that the other side tries to do a lot, is

469
00:24:52,320 --> 00:24:56,040
Speaker 10: to pit business owners and corporations against the actual people

470
00:24:56,040 --> 00:24:58,479
Speaker 10: who power them. I think that Kamala Harris is going

471
00:24:58,520 --> 00:25:00,000
Speaker 10: to go in and she's going to have a really

472
00:25:00,119 --> 00:25:03,680
Speaker 10: great conversation just to that effect that I just mentioned.

473
00:25:03,920 --> 00:25:06,560
Speaker 10: It is the people who power our economy, and we

474
00:25:06,680 --> 00:25:09,720
Speaker 10: need to have manufacturing here in the United States to

475
00:25:09,720 --> 00:25:13,040
Speaker 10: make sure that we're growing jobs. That's important. Obviously imports

476
00:25:13,040 --> 00:25:15,200
Speaker 10: are important too, But we can't just continue to say

477
00:25:15,240 --> 00:25:18,560
Speaker 10: we're gonna throw blanket taxes out there that end up

478
00:25:18,560 --> 00:25:23,359
Speaker 10: being taxes on the American public and our pocketbooks, because

479
00:25:23,359 --> 00:25:27,479
Speaker 10: it doesn't necessarily, you know, affect the overall economic bottom

480
00:25:27,520 --> 00:25:30,760
Speaker 10: line in a real improvement way. So I think that

481
00:25:30,800 --> 00:25:32,160
Speaker 10: what she's going to do is she's going to actually

482
00:25:32,160 --> 00:25:33,800
Speaker 10: speak to the people. She's going to speak to the

483
00:25:33,840 --> 00:25:38,159
Speaker 10: workers and remind us all how valuable labor is to

484
00:25:38,280 --> 00:25:42,000
Speaker 10: the fundamental fabric of our economy. And our society. She's

485
00:25:42,000 --> 00:25:43,600
Speaker 10: been doing that all along, and I think she's going

486
00:25:43,640 --> 00:25:44,520
Speaker 10: to do that again today.

487
00:25:45,840 --> 00:25:48,040
Speaker 2: And as Pennsylvania the state that most needs to hear

488
00:25:48,080 --> 00:25:50,479
Speaker 2: that message from her, is it the most appropriate forum

489
00:25:50,560 --> 00:25:54,080
Speaker 2: to be delivering it, knowing how critical, of course that

490
00:25:54,160 --> 00:25:56,320
Speaker 2: state and its electoral votes are to the outcome of

491
00:25:56,320 --> 00:25:56,800
Speaker 2: this election.

492
00:25:58,000 --> 00:26:01,399
Speaker 10: Surely, And you know, remember Pennsylvania is a home of

493
00:26:01,440 --> 00:26:05,639
Speaker 10: American manufacturing, steel industry. President Biden talks about, you know,

494
00:26:05,720 --> 00:26:10,320
Speaker 10: his roots there in scran where he's from working class community.

495
00:26:10,560 --> 00:26:13,760
Speaker 10: His father was a laborer. So absolutely this is the

496
00:26:13,800 --> 00:26:17,119
Speaker 10: perfect place for her to be bringing home this message

497
00:26:17,119 --> 00:26:20,919
Speaker 10: where there are generations of families who remember a time

498
00:26:21,359 --> 00:26:25,080
Speaker 10: when you are a proud union member, a proud working person,

499
00:26:25,160 --> 00:26:31,359
Speaker 10: a proud manufacturing employee who cared about your job, was

500
00:26:31,400 --> 00:26:34,080
Speaker 10: able to put food on the table for families, had

501
00:26:33,680 --> 00:26:36,520
Speaker 10: a good income, was able to own a home. The

502
00:26:36,560 --> 00:26:38,880
Speaker 10: price of inflation wasn't so crazy that you couldn't buy

503
00:26:38,880 --> 00:26:41,440
Speaker 10: goods and put food on the table. And so there

504
00:26:41,480 --> 00:26:46,960
Speaker 10: are people there who remember how fundamental the manufacturing industry

505
00:26:47,040 --> 00:26:51,440
Speaker 10: has been two our American economy, and also are experiencing

506
00:26:51,480 --> 00:26:53,679
Speaker 10: some of the pain of having lost a lot of that,

507
00:26:53,800 --> 00:26:56,000
Speaker 10: So I think this is absolutely the right audience for

508
00:26:56,040 --> 00:26:57,120
Speaker 10: her to have this conversation.

509
00:26:58,440 --> 00:27:00,000
Speaker 2: Well, and of course I used so she approaches me

510
00:27:00,040 --> 00:27:04,159
Speaker 2: many of her conversations around the economy with her background

511
00:27:04,280 --> 00:27:06,560
Speaker 2: as someone who was brought up in a middle class family.

512
00:27:06,600 --> 00:27:10,280
Speaker 2: She has emphasized that part of who she is quite

513
00:27:10,280 --> 00:27:13,080
Speaker 2: a lot in much of her messaging. She's emphasized other

514
00:27:13,119 --> 00:27:15,639
Speaker 2: parts of her identity, though a bit less, including the

515
00:27:15,720 --> 00:27:18,240
Speaker 2: historic nature of her candidacy as being a woman of color,

516
00:27:18,280 --> 00:27:20,840
Speaker 2: the first ever leading a major party's ticket in a

517
00:27:20,840 --> 00:27:24,440
Speaker 2: presidential election. Of course, she was asked about that kind

518
00:27:24,440 --> 00:27:28,520
Speaker 2: of demographic question and black voters black men in particular

519
00:27:28,680 --> 00:27:31,600
Speaker 2: in an interview with the National Association of Black Journalists

520
00:27:31,600 --> 00:27:34,840
Speaker 2: earlier this month. Will remind our audience here of her response.

521
00:27:35,520 --> 00:27:41,399
Speaker 11: I think it's very important to not operate from the

522
00:27:41,440 --> 00:27:46,119
Speaker 11: assumption that black men are in anybody's pocket. Black men

523
00:27:46,160 --> 00:27:49,760
Speaker 11: are like any other voting group. You got to earn

524
00:27:49,800 --> 00:27:55,000
Speaker 11: their vote. So I'm working to earn the vote, not

525
00:27:55,119 --> 00:27:58,280
Speaker 11: assuming I'm going to have it because I am black.

526
00:28:00,160 --> 00:28:02,320
Speaker 2: But when we consider the earning of the voter, the

527
00:28:02,359 --> 00:28:05,840
Speaker 2: explanations as to why that vote should be cast for her.

528
00:28:05,880 --> 00:28:09,120
Speaker 2: Does her identity not play a role. If her identity

529
00:28:09,200 --> 00:28:11,399
Speaker 2: is someone who out of middle class upbringing is supposed

530
00:28:11,400 --> 00:28:13,639
Speaker 2: to play a role in how voters view her the

531
00:28:13,640 --> 00:28:15,919
Speaker 2: way she approaches the economy, why can't it go for

532
00:28:16,040 --> 00:28:17,560
Speaker 2: other things about her as well.

533
00:28:18,840 --> 00:28:20,280
Speaker 10: I don't think that that's what she said at all.

534
00:28:20,359 --> 00:28:23,960
Speaker 10: Kamala is black. Kamala is also Indian. She's a biracial American.

535
00:28:24,160 --> 00:28:26,719
Speaker 10: Like so many people in this country. We are a

536
00:28:26,960 --> 00:28:30,439
Speaker 10: multi racial society. And here's the other thing about our

537
00:28:30,480 --> 00:28:34,920
Speaker 10: demographics is that we are also shifting in our demographics

538
00:28:34,920 --> 00:28:36,919
Speaker 10: here in the United States, where we are seeing a

539
00:28:37,000 --> 00:28:40,600
Speaker 10: new American majority of people of color and multi race

540
00:28:40,680 --> 00:28:44,120
Speaker 10: people who are absolutely on track to be the majority

541
00:28:44,160 --> 00:28:47,200
Speaker 10: of the population of this nation. So what does that mean?

542
00:28:47,480 --> 00:28:52,360
Speaker 10: Certainly from an electoral power standpoint, people of color will

543
00:28:52,400 --> 00:28:56,880
Speaker 10: ultimately be the outnumber white voters in terms of their

544
00:28:56,920 --> 00:28:59,640
Speaker 10: electoral power. That is the trend that we are seeing.

545
00:28:59,640 --> 00:29:03,760
Speaker 10: That's what the demographics say. This directly relates to who

546
00:29:03,800 --> 00:29:06,520
Speaker 10: she needs to appeal to in order to get out

547
00:29:06,560 --> 00:29:09,640
Speaker 10: the vote to win. And that's for you know, candidates

548
00:29:09,680 --> 00:29:12,880
Speaker 10: of any party on all the sides. But also when

549
00:29:12,920 --> 00:29:16,080
Speaker 10: you think about it, as a more macro conversation beyond

550
00:29:16,200 --> 00:29:21,280
Speaker 10: just this political cycle, our economy, our consumers, largest consumer group,

551
00:29:21,320 --> 00:29:23,880
Speaker 10: one of the largest consumer groups in this country are

552
00:29:24,000 --> 00:29:29,040
Speaker 10: African Americans. The number one business owners, folks who are

553
00:29:29,040 --> 00:29:31,600
Speaker 10: starting businesses that are more rapid clip than anybody else

554
00:29:31,640 --> 00:29:34,640
Speaker 10: in this country are black people, black women in particular.

555
00:29:35,040 --> 00:29:38,800
Speaker 10: Ninety percent of the businesses in this country are small businesses,

556
00:29:39,080 --> 00:29:43,440
Speaker 10: many of which are powered by people of color. Demographically

557
00:29:43,600 --> 00:29:49,920
Speaker 10: and from a market spend capacity, we certainly are powering

558
00:29:49,960 --> 00:29:53,000
Speaker 10: the market as consumers, as people of color. So this

559
00:29:53,160 --> 00:29:56,920
Speaker 10: is a macro trajectory that we are seeing in our

560
00:29:56,920 --> 00:29:59,880
Speaker 10: demographics right now shifting. And here's where I think the

561
00:30:00,120 --> 00:30:03,080
Speaker 10: the fine point on this I'll make around this conversation

562
00:30:03,200 --> 00:30:06,880
Speaker 10: is as it relates to politics and demography, is that

563
00:30:07,440 --> 00:30:10,200
Speaker 10: what corporations have always known, what businesses have always known,

564
00:30:10,280 --> 00:30:12,719
Speaker 10: is that it's good business to do right by people,

565
00:30:12,840 --> 00:30:15,560
Speaker 10: no matter who they are. And what you're seeing from

566
00:30:15,640 --> 00:30:21,360
Speaker 10: Kamala Harris is embodying those values of inclusivity, of diversity

567
00:30:21,440 --> 00:30:24,320
Speaker 10: being an asset right to the bottom line. What you're

568
00:30:24,360 --> 00:30:28,600
Speaker 10: seeing on the other side with the Republicans is a

569
00:30:28,640 --> 00:30:33,160
Speaker 10: real assault and an attack on diversity, an attack on

570
00:30:33,280 --> 00:30:36,400
Speaker 10: diversity and an attack on inclusion, and an attack on

571
00:30:36,560 --> 00:30:40,840
Speaker 10: anybody who recognizes the power and not just the power

572
00:30:40,880 --> 00:30:46,080
Speaker 10: from a social context, but the power in our society

573
00:30:46,240 --> 00:30:50,840
Speaker 10: of really embracing the majority of the people certainly and

574
00:30:50,960 --> 00:30:53,719
Speaker 10: reflecting and representing their values. And so I think that

575
00:30:53,800 --> 00:30:57,480
Speaker 10: you know, Kamala Harris's conversation across the board, being on culture,

576
00:30:57,560 --> 00:31:00,720
Speaker 10: be it on her own identity, being on her economic policies,

577
00:31:00,960 --> 00:31:04,280
Speaker 10: is absolutely reflective of where we're going and reflective of

578
00:31:04,320 --> 00:31:07,920
Speaker 10: the demographic makeup of our society.

579
00:31:09,320 --> 00:31:11,680
Speaker 2: Well, I'd like to focus on another demographic as well,

580
00:31:11,720 --> 00:31:14,720
Speaker 2: specifically women, in the way that both of these candidates

581
00:31:14,760 --> 00:31:18,760
Speaker 2: are approaching the vote of women in this election cycle.

582
00:31:18,800 --> 00:31:20,960
Speaker 2: We heard just this week from Donald Trump about this

583
00:31:21,040 --> 00:31:24,480
Speaker 2: notion that he will be a protector of women. This

584
00:31:24,520 --> 00:31:25,400
Speaker 2: is what he said, Ayesha.

585
00:31:26,240 --> 00:31:29,320
Speaker 12: As president, I have to be your protector. I will

586
00:31:29,320 --> 00:31:33,040
Speaker 12: make you safe at the border, on the sidewalks of

587
00:31:33,080 --> 00:31:38,040
Speaker 12: your now violent cities, in the suburbs where you are

588
00:31:38,120 --> 00:31:42,840
Speaker 12: under migrant criminal siege, and with our military protecting you

589
00:31:43,000 --> 00:31:47,000
Speaker 12: from foreign enemies, of which we have many today. Because

590
00:31:47,040 --> 00:31:50,239
Speaker 12: of the incompetent leadership that we have you will no

591
00:31:50,320 --> 00:31:54,520
Speaker 12: longer be abandoned, lonely, or scared. You will no longer

592
00:31:55,160 --> 00:31:56,960
Speaker 12: be in danger. You're not going to be in danger

593
00:31:57,040 --> 00:32:01,920
Speaker 12: any longer. You will no longer have anxiety from all

594
00:32:01,960 --> 00:32:06,840
Speaker 12: of the problems our country has today. You will be protected,

595
00:32:07,000 --> 00:32:08,600
Speaker 12: and I will be your protector.

596
00:32:10,680 --> 00:32:13,040
Speaker 2: So it strikes me, Aisha, that he's really focusing on

597
00:32:13,120 --> 00:32:16,920
Speaker 2: kind of ideas of physical protection. Here are physical threats

598
00:32:16,960 --> 00:32:20,080
Speaker 2: that people could face. Kamala Harris has been talking a

599
00:32:20,160 --> 00:32:23,440
Speaker 2: lot about the protection instead of rights and freedoms. That's

600
00:32:23,480 --> 00:32:25,920
Speaker 2: a lot of where her messaging has centered on what

601
00:32:26,040 --> 00:32:27,000
Speaker 2: wins out.

602
00:32:28,040 --> 00:32:30,920
Speaker 10: Well, let me just first tell you how offended I am,

603
00:32:31,080 --> 00:32:33,360
Speaker 10: and I speak on behalf of more than half of

604
00:32:33,400 --> 00:32:36,680
Speaker 10: the population, women who make up more than half the population,

605
00:32:37,040 --> 00:32:41,360
Speaker 10: how completely insulting and offensive it is for Donald Trump

606
00:32:41,440 --> 00:32:47,520
Speaker 10: to throw around a very old age patriarchal trope to

607
00:32:47,680 --> 00:32:51,600
Speaker 10: suggest that all us little women need is some big

608
00:32:51,680 --> 00:32:55,000
Speaker 10: mouth guy to run around and protect us, when in

609
00:32:55,040 --> 00:32:59,280
Speaker 10: fact it's him who's causing the things that make us

610
00:32:59,360 --> 00:33:03,000
Speaker 10: most and most fearful. I think that you know, fifty

611
00:33:03,080 --> 00:33:07,280
Speaker 10: seven percent of women fired Donald Trump and rejected him

612
00:33:07,600 --> 00:33:10,880
Speaker 10: in the twenty twenty election. Fifty seven percent of women.

613
00:33:11,120 --> 00:33:14,080
Speaker 10: We certainly would never feel safe in a room alone

614
00:33:14,080 --> 00:33:16,840
Speaker 10: with him, because he has said that he grabs them

615
00:33:16,840 --> 00:33:19,160
Speaker 10: by the you know what, and he has been found

616
00:33:19,200 --> 00:33:22,680
Speaker 10: liable for sexual assault. This is not someone who is

617
00:33:22,720 --> 00:33:26,480
Speaker 10: any one's protector, and certainly no woman's protector. And the

618
00:33:26,560 --> 00:33:30,680
Speaker 10: fact that he would even you know, declare that really

619
00:33:30,720 --> 00:33:37,200
Speaker 10: reflects to a very antiquated sense of patriarchy and this

620
00:33:37,360 --> 00:33:40,040
Speaker 10: kind of way that he is moving through his campaign,

621
00:33:40,440 --> 00:33:45,280
Speaker 10: trying to galvanize a very bygone golden era of men

622
00:33:45,480 --> 00:33:49,360
Speaker 10: thinking that they are dominant to submissive women, that they

623
00:33:49,400 --> 00:33:52,760
Speaker 10: are just there to take control of and to protect,

624
00:33:52,840 --> 00:33:55,680
Speaker 10: and whatever other language it is it's being used. I

625
00:33:55,720 --> 00:33:58,000
Speaker 10: do believe that it's going to turn off. It has

626
00:33:58,080 --> 00:33:59,960
Speaker 10: already turned off so many if you just look at

627
00:34:00,080 --> 00:34:02,520
Speaker 10: the conversations that are happening out in the public discourse,

628
00:34:02,880 --> 00:34:05,320
Speaker 10: and when fifty seven percent of the women reject you,

629
00:34:05,720 --> 00:34:08,319
Speaker 10: and that's how you show up, let alone assault on

630
00:34:08,480 --> 00:34:11,840
Speaker 10: our healthcare, I don't think that it's a winning strategy

631
00:34:11,880 --> 00:34:15,040
Speaker 10: for anyone other than men who have that same attitude.

632
00:34:16,239 --> 00:34:19,400
Speaker 2: Finally, Aisha, in our final minute with you, whether it's women,

633
00:34:19,880 --> 00:34:22,560
Speaker 2: black voters, any of the demographics we are talking about

634
00:34:22,640 --> 00:34:24,200
Speaker 2: just the American electorate as a whole.

635
00:34:24,200 --> 00:34:26,240
Speaker 6: I think we know that a lot.

636
00:34:26,040 --> 00:34:28,800
Speaker 2: Of this outcome could be dependent on just whether or

637
00:34:28,880 --> 00:34:31,279
Speaker 2: not people turn out. What is the winning strategy for

638
00:34:31,320 --> 00:34:34,400
Speaker 2: the Harris campaign to actually drive voters to go cast

639
00:34:34,920 --> 00:34:35,520
Speaker 2: a vote?

640
00:34:36,440 --> 00:34:37,160
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, I.

641
00:34:37,160 --> 00:34:39,359
Speaker 10: Mean that's really important. You know, you've seen so many

642
00:34:39,440 --> 00:34:43,560
Speaker 10: different constituent groups based on ethnicity, be it black or Latino,

643
00:34:43,840 --> 00:34:47,080
Speaker 10: or you know, demographics, if it's women, if it's LGBTQ,

644
00:34:47,160 --> 00:34:50,719
Speaker 10: folks all come together saying we support Harris, including by

645
00:34:50,760 --> 00:34:54,719
Speaker 10: the way, white dudes for Harris, right. And why that

646
00:34:54,960 --> 00:34:59,080
Speaker 10: matters is because the Harris campaign, aside from just having

647
00:34:59,200 --> 00:35:04,320
Speaker 10: a aultifaceted, diverse coalition that literally reflects the entirety of America,

648
00:35:04,800 --> 00:35:08,560
Speaker 10: also has a very strong boots on the ground ground game.

649
00:35:09,280 --> 00:35:14,440
Speaker 10: So across this country. She has thousands of field offices

650
00:35:14,680 --> 00:35:17,879
Speaker 10: where there are volunteers and operatives who are going out

651
00:35:17,920 --> 00:35:21,799
Speaker 10: to be deployed into the community all day, every day,

652
00:35:21,880 --> 00:35:25,400
Speaker 10: meeting with voters, talking with voters, sharing information, hearing people's concerns,

653
00:35:25,680 --> 00:35:28,239
Speaker 10: listening to their ideas, being able to take those back

654
00:35:28,239 --> 00:35:30,439
Speaker 10: to the campaign and help shape the way that she's

655
00:35:30,480 --> 00:35:32,239
Speaker 10: thinking about the way that she would lead and serve

656
00:35:32,280 --> 00:35:35,600
Speaker 10: the American public. The thing that is really most promising

657
00:35:35,680 --> 00:35:38,359
Speaker 10: right now from a campaign apparatus, if you compare where

658
00:35:38,400 --> 00:35:41,400
Speaker 10: the Republicans and the Democrats are, is that the Democrats

659
00:35:41,400 --> 00:35:45,320
Speaker 10: have a very wide, far reaching, boots on the ground

660
00:35:45,320 --> 00:35:49,440
Speaker 10: strategy in almost every state. And that includes, of course

661
00:35:49,480 --> 00:35:51,680
Speaker 10: the big swing states that they have to win, but

662
00:35:51,800 --> 00:35:53,560
Speaker 10: other states as well that we didn't even think we're

663
00:35:53,560 --> 00:35:56,080
Speaker 10: going to be in play, like North Carolina for example.

664
00:35:56,360 --> 00:35:58,320
Speaker 10: And so at the end of the day, all politics

665
00:35:58,360 --> 00:36:00,920
Speaker 10: is low, and that's what she's doing. She's getting out

666
00:36:00,960 --> 00:36:02,160
Speaker 10: there and talking to people locally.

667
00:36:03,360 --> 00:36:05,480
Speaker 2: All right, Aisha, Great to have you. Aisha Mills is

668
00:36:05,480 --> 00:36:09,319
Speaker 2: a democratic political strategist and social impact advisor. Joining us

669
00:36:09,360 --> 00:36:10,520
Speaker 2: here on Balance of Power.

670
00:36:13,680 --> 00:36:17,040
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens

671
00:36:17,200 --> 00:36:20,520
Speaker 1: just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and enroud

672
00:36:20,520 --> 00:36:23,240
Speaker 1: Oto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen

673
00:36:23,360 --> 00:36:26,480
Speaker 1: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,

674
00:36:26,840 --> 00:36:30,920
Speaker 1: Just Say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

675
00:36:31,920 --> 00:36:34,279
Speaker 2: As members return to their districts.

676
00:36:33,840 --> 00:36:35,280
Speaker 6: Or wherever they will be campaigning.

677
00:36:35,320 --> 00:36:37,480
Speaker 2: As we get closer and closer to the election. It is,

678
00:36:37,520 --> 00:36:40,239
Speaker 2: of course, not just them, not just Washington that is

679
00:36:40,280 --> 00:36:42,560
Speaker 2: on edge with the uncertainty of it all.

680
00:36:42,560 --> 00:36:44,480
Speaker 6: This applies to business as well.

681
00:36:44,480 --> 00:36:46,120
Speaker 2: That's something, of course we spend a lot of time

682
00:36:46,120 --> 00:36:49,560
Speaker 2: talking about here on Bloomberg Radio, this notion that the

683
00:36:49,560 --> 00:36:53,360
Speaker 2: policies these candidates are proposing could have an impact on

684
00:36:53,400 --> 00:36:55,719
Speaker 2: the business and financial world to which we speak, and

685
00:36:55,760 --> 00:36:57,759
Speaker 2: of course the business and financial world in return is

686
00:36:58,320 --> 00:37:01,200
Speaker 2: bracing for the potential outcome here. And that's why I

687
00:37:01,239 --> 00:37:05,080
Speaker 2: was especially struck by the survey that just posted from

688
00:37:05,120 --> 00:37:08,239
Speaker 2: the Atlanta Fed. It's it's latest CFO survey in which

689
00:37:08,280 --> 00:37:11,799
Speaker 2: it finds thirty percent of respondents at firms reported having

690
00:37:11,840 --> 00:37:17,239
Speaker 2: either postponed, scaled down, delayed indefinitely, or even permanently canceled

691
00:37:17,640 --> 00:37:21,680
Speaker 2: their investment plans because of election related uncertainty. So we

692
00:37:21,680 --> 00:37:24,120
Speaker 2: want to dig more into the survey data. Now in

693
00:37:24,160 --> 00:37:26,279
Speaker 2: turn to Daniel Whites of the Atlanta Fed. He's their

694
00:37:26,280 --> 00:37:29,840
Speaker 2: survey director and is joining me now here on Bloomberg. Daniel,

695
00:37:29,880 --> 00:37:32,800
Speaker 2: great to have you. This is obviously, this thirty percent

696
00:37:32,840 --> 00:37:36,280
Speaker 2: figure higher than last quarter's figure of twenty eight percent,

697
00:37:36,360 --> 00:37:39,279
Speaker 2: So perhaps uncertainty being felt more and more as we

698
00:37:39,320 --> 00:37:41,600
Speaker 2: get closer to the election. But I also wonder how

699
00:37:41,640 --> 00:37:44,880
Speaker 2: this compares to history. Are firms less likely to be

700
00:37:46,200 --> 00:37:49,840
Speaker 2: making investment plans in this election cycle than in cycles past?

701
00:37:51,239 --> 00:37:53,239
Speaker 13: Well, thank you so much for having me first the

702
00:37:53,320 --> 00:37:55,759
Speaker 13: usual Federal Reserve disclaimer that any views are my own

703
00:37:55,800 --> 00:37:58,200
Speaker 13: and don't necessarily reflect those of the Atlanta Fed or

704
00:37:58,200 --> 00:38:02,160
Speaker 13: the Federal Reserve system. With respect to your question, that's

705
00:38:02,200 --> 00:38:05,520
Speaker 13: a great question. We've only asked this in this particular cycle,

706
00:38:05,640 --> 00:38:08,480
Speaker 13: this quarter and last quarter. What we see in the literature, though,

707
00:38:08,520 --> 00:38:11,520
Speaker 13: is it's not uncommon for investment to sort of dip

708
00:38:11,560 --> 00:38:15,600
Speaker 13: ahead of some big risk events like presidential elections. But

709
00:38:15,719 --> 00:38:18,480
Speaker 13: the question is is it going to bounce back afterwards?

710
00:38:19,239 --> 00:38:22,080
Speaker 13: Historically we have seen bounce backs. I think you know.

711
00:38:22,120 --> 00:38:24,680
Speaker 13: The question is how big is the holdback this time

712
00:38:25,000 --> 00:38:27,080
Speaker 13: relative to history? And will that kind of what we

713
00:38:27,080 --> 00:38:29,880
Speaker 13: see a bounce back afterwards or will investment sort of

714
00:38:30,040 --> 00:38:31,920
Speaker 13: stay low and will those firms who are on the

715
00:38:31,960 --> 00:38:33,839
Speaker 13: sidelines not jump back into the fray.

716
00:38:35,840 --> 00:38:37,879
Speaker 2: Well, yeah, and of course, I guess only time will

717
00:38:37,920 --> 00:38:40,879
Speaker 2: tell on that one. I'm sure it also depends that

718
00:38:40,920 --> 00:38:43,600
Speaker 2: what that bounce back look like looks like dependent on

719
00:38:43,640 --> 00:38:45,840
Speaker 2: the kind of policies that are actually put into place

720
00:38:45,880 --> 00:38:49,879
Speaker 2: with whatever administration we ultimately get, what is your sense

721
00:38:49,880 --> 00:38:53,200
Speaker 2: of what the greatest concern of these firms are now

722
00:38:53,480 --> 00:38:55,560
Speaker 2: around what that kind of policy could look like, what

723
00:38:55,600 --> 00:38:58,640
Speaker 2: policy questions it is that are currently keeping them holding back.

724
00:39:00,239 --> 00:39:03,400
Speaker 13: So we asked firms about what topics were most important

725
00:39:03,440 --> 00:39:06,080
Speaker 13: going into this year's elections. They listed a litany of

726
00:39:06,080 --> 00:39:09,439
Speaker 13: topics that the top four in terms of the most

727
00:39:09,440 --> 00:39:13,920
Speaker 13: cited were regulatory policy, monetary policy, corporate tax policy, and

728
00:39:13,920 --> 00:39:16,520
Speaker 13: fiscal policy. They all got I think between fifty and

729
00:39:16,560 --> 00:39:19,279
Speaker 13: sixty percent of firms indicating that they were thinking about that.

730
00:39:19,360 --> 00:39:22,920
Speaker 13: So you know, those are all very high on the

731
00:39:22,960 --> 00:39:27,480
Speaker 13: minds of cfo CFOs and business decision makers. So a

732
00:39:27,480 --> 00:39:29,520
Speaker 13: lot to think about going into the election.

733
00:39:31,360 --> 00:39:35,080
Speaker 2: Well, don't we know it, Daniel, as we consider one

734
00:39:35,080 --> 00:39:37,360
Speaker 2: of those areas and I understand you are speaking to

735
00:39:37,360 --> 00:39:40,280
Speaker 2: me from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. You mentioned

736
00:39:40,280 --> 00:39:44,319
Speaker 2: their monetary policy. Did you ask any questions around FED

737
00:39:44,400 --> 00:39:47,560
Speaker 2: independence and whether companies are actually concerned about the notion

738
00:39:47,640 --> 00:39:51,600
Speaker 2: that that could erode depending on what administration we end

739
00:39:51,680 --> 00:39:51,960
Speaker 2: up with.

740
00:39:53,360 --> 00:39:56,239
Speaker 13: No, we didn't specifically ask about that. We do ask

741
00:39:56,280 --> 00:39:59,760
Speaker 13: firms what their top concerns are every quarter, and monetary

742
00:39:59,760 --> 00:40:05,399
Speaker 13: pol had figured reasonably highly in recent quarters, but nothing

743
00:40:05,440 --> 00:40:07,759
Speaker 13: regarding fed independence that we asked about specifically.

744
00:40:09,080 --> 00:40:10,560
Speaker 2: All right, fair enough, I guess it would kind of

745
00:40:10,600 --> 00:40:14,480
Speaker 2: be asking a question about yourselves in some way. It's

746
00:40:14,520 --> 00:40:17,680
Speaker 2: like a journalist asking questions about media and journalists. It

747
00:40:17,680 --> 00:40:23,120
Speaker 2: feels weird sometimes, But as we consider what this actually

748
00:40:23,160 --> 00:40:25,560
Speaker 2: means for companies, you mentioned that there's a question around

749
00:40:25,600 --> 00:40:27,120
Speaker 2: the bounce back, right, whether or not all of a

750
00:40:27,120 --> 00:40:29,360
Speaker 2: sudden this investment comes through as soon as the results

751
00:40:29,360 --> 00:40:32,000
Speaker 2: are known and there's less uncertainty. But I wonder what

752
00:40:32,040 --> 00:40:35,319
Speaker 2: happens to them in the meantime. You note here that

753
00:40:35,360 --> 00:40:38,760
Speaker 2: firms whose investment plans are negatively impacted by election related

754
00:40:38,840 --> 00:40:43,560
Speaker 2: uncertainty also expected lower revenue and employment growth this year

755
00:40:44,000 --> 00:40:47,640
Speaker 2: than their peers, So this does have an immediate financial impact.

756
00:40:49,239 --> 00:40:51,439
Speaker 13: Yeah, no, that's absolutely right. We also note that they're

757
00:40:51,440 --> 00:40:54,480
Speaker 13: optimism both about their own firms, but the economy in

758
00:40:54,520 --> 00:40:58,200
Speaker 13: general is about ten percentage points lower for impacted firms

759
00:40:58,200 --> 00:41:00,560
Speaker 13: than those that are not impacted. I mean those that

760
00:41:00,640 --> 00:41:04,359
Speaker 13: pulled back investment versus those that don't. So both optimism

761
00:41:04,800 --> 00:41:07,800
Speaker 13: lower revenue expected revenue growth this year and lower expected

762
00:41:07,800 --> 00:41:11,520
Speaker 13: employment growth this year. What was particularly striking is those

763
00:41:11,520 --> 00:41:14,400
Speaker 13: firms also you know in the media, and on average

764
00:41:14,719 --> 00:41:18,160
Speaker 13: expect lower I expect the same employment and revenue growth

765
00:41:18,200 --> 00:41:20,680
Speaker 13: next year. So that's to say, if you expected amounts back,

766
00:41:20,760 --> 00:41:23,759
Speaker 13: you might expect them to actually overshoot their peers so

767
00:41:23,800 --> 00:41:26,319
Speaker 13: that they can catch up. We didn't see that firms

768
00:41:26,360 --> 00:41:28,680
Speaker 13: were expecting that they expected to lose some growth this

769
00:41:28,800 --> 00:41:31,160
Speaker 13: year and then catch up with their firms next year,

770
00:41:31,360 --> 00:41:34,080
Speaker 13: but potentially not regain that lost growth.

771
00:41:35,640 --> 00:41:38,319
Speaker 2: Fascinating And when we consider the kinds of firms we're

772
00:41:38,320 --> 00:41:41,160
Speaker 2: talking about here, is this more true for certain sectors

773
00:41:41,239 --> 00:41:43,920
Speaker 2: or areas of the economy than others. Does it depend

774
00:41:43,960 --> 00:41:45,960
Speaker 2: on what kind of space they're in.

775
00:41:48,040 --> 00:41:51,040
Speaker 13: From what we've seen, it seems to be fairly broad.

776
00:41:51,080 --> 00:41:54,840
Speaker 13: But there's not one sector in particular that's that's particularly vulnerable.

777
00:41:55,280 --> 00:41:58,480
Speaker 13: It seems to be to be fairly widespread across firms.

778
00:42:00,280 --> 00:42:02,160
Speaker 2: I'm just looking here at some of those issues that

779
00:42:02,200 --> 00:42:06,400
Speaker 2: you were talking about. Inclusive of non labor costs is

780
00:42:06,440 --> 00:42:09,840
Speaker 2: something that does appear here on the list of pressing concerns,

781
00:42:09,840 --> 00:42:12,720
Speaker 2: But I also am wondering because you have labor quality

782
00:42:12,760 --> 00:42:16,360
Speaker 2: and availability ranked even higher than that. There is obviously

783
00:42:16,400 --> 00:42:20,040
Speaker 2: a live conversation in this election cycle happening about immigration

784
00:42:20,320 --> 00:42:24,600
Speaker 2: and migration, a potential crackdown that could be happening. Frankly,

785
00:42:24,640 --> 00:42:27,000
Speaker 2: no matter the outcome is, everybody seems to need to

786
00:42:27,000 --> 00:42:30,960
Speaker 2: be more hawkish on that issue. How would that translate

787
00:42:31,040 --> 00:42:33,920
Speaker 2: into companies' ability to fill positions they need to fill

788
00:42:33,960 --> 00:42:36,759
Speaker 2: to operate to the economy overall? Knowing we have seen

789
00:42:36,800 --> 00:42:40,239
Speaker 2: a big labor market impact of immigration, depending on what

790
00:42:40,239 --> 00:42:41,440
Speaker 2: these policies really look like.

791
00:42:42,800 --> 00:42:45,200
Speaker 13: Yeah, that's a great question. To the extent we asked

792
00:42:45,200 --> 00:42:47,880
Speaker 13: about immigration policy as one of the policy topics that

793
00:42:47,920 --> 00:42:49,799
Speaker 13: was important to the firms, it actually ranked I think

794
00:42:49,840 --> 00:42:52,919
Speaker 13: in the lower half of the policy topics that were raised.

795
00:42:52,960 --> 00:42:55,520
Speaker 13: But you're right, labor market concerns are still top of

796
00:42:55,520 --> 00:42:58,360
Speaker 13: mind overall. I think there's a tremendous amount of uncertainty.

797
00:42:58,400 --> 00:43:00,640
Speaker 13: Is kind of put is one potential take away from

798
00:43:00,640 --> 00:43:03,239
Speaker 13: this as to how the policies will evolve and how

799
00:43:03,280 --> 00:43:06,480
Speaker 13: those potential policies will impact the labor market. There's just

800
00:43:06,719 --> 00:43:09,040
Speaker 13: a lot of questions out there and not a ton

801
00:43:09,080 --> 00:43:09,959
Speaker 13: of answers right now.

802
00:43:12,120 --> 00:43:13,120
Speaker 6: Well, yeah, I wish.

803
00:43:13,160 --> 00:43:14,880
Speaker 2: I think a lot of us wish we had answers

804
00:43:14,880 --> 00:43:18,720
Speaker 2: more immediately on a variety of different issues. Finally, Daniel,

805
00:43:18,760 --> 00:43:21,120
Speaker 2: before we let you go, we heard Donald Trump yesterday

806
00:43:21,120 --> 00:43:25,440
Speaker 2: outlining some ideas about manufacturing, in particular essentially giving lower

807
00:43:25,480 --> 00:43:29,480
Speaker 2: taxes and lower regulatory burden to US companies manufacturing products

808
00:43:29,480 --> 00:43:32,400
Speaker 2: here in the US. Tariff's being put into place for

809
00:43:32,480 --> 00:43:37,480
Speaker 2: companies that don't. What kind of tariff concerns are companies,

810
00:43:37,560 --> 00:43:40,560
Speaker 2: especially those that are importers and may need components that

811
00:43:40,600 --> 00:43:43,319
Speaker 2: come from other places even if they're assembling in the US,

812
00:43:43,360 --> 00:43:45,120
Speaker 2: for example, How are you seeing that show up?

813
00:43:46,840 --> 00:43:47,040
Speaker 3: Sure?

814
00:43:47,080 --> 00:43:48,520
Speaker 13: I mean to the extent that those would show up

815
00:43:48,719 --> 00:43:51,800
Speaker 13: in our question about concerns that firms have, it hasn't

816
00:43:51,840 --> 00:43:54,799
Speaker 13: really risen to the top tier level, at least as

817
00:43:54,800 --> 00:43:59,760
Speaker 13: it compares to monetary policy, labor market, those types of issues.

818
00:44:00,080 --> 00:44:02,040
Speaker 13: In terms of the policy topics of firms are thinking

819
00:44:02,080 --> 00:44:05,520
Speaker 13: about going into the election. Trade agreements are on the list.

820
00:44:05,560 --> 00:44:07,800
Speaker 13: I think just over somewhere between twenty and thirty percent

821
00:44:07,840 --> 00:44:10,400
Speaker 13: of firms have indicated that's something that they're thinking about.

822
00:44:11,600 --> 00:44:14,799
Speaker 13: International tax policy is also something they're thinking about, but

823
00:44:14,840 --> 00:44:17,080
Speaker 13: again it doesn't rise to the top of the list

824
00:44:17,719 --> 00:44:22,000
Speaker 13: at least for the policy topics regulatory policy, monetary policy,

825
00:44:22,200 --> 00:44:25,520
Speaker 13: or corporate tax policy. So it's definitely on their mind,

826
00:44:25,560 --> 00:44:27,720
Speaker 13: but it doesn't seem to be the top of mind.

827
00:44:29,000 --> 00:44:31,799
Speaker 2: All right, Daniel, it's a fascinating survey. Thank you so

828
00:44:31,880 --> 00:44:34,399
Speaker 2: much for joining us to break some of the figures down.

829
00:44:34,440 --> 00:44:37,480
Speaker 2: That's Daniel White's Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta survey director

830
00:44:37,520 --> 00:44:40,160
Speaker 2: with a look at how the CFOs are viewing this

831
00:44:40,320 --> 00:44:43,759
Speaker 2: election uncertainty and their investment decisions around it. We'll have

832
00:44:43,800 --> 00:44:46,480
Speaker 2: more straight ahead here on Balance of Power. I'm Kaylee

833
00:44:46,520 --> 00:44:47,680
Speaker 2: Lines in Washington.

834
00:44:51,320 --> 00:44:54,799
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens

835
00:44:54,920 --> 00:44:57,960
Speaker 1: just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Emocarplay and then

836
00:44:58,080 --> 00:45:00,960
Speaker 1: roun Oto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand

837
00:45:01,040 --> 00:45:06,879
Speaker 1: wherever you get your podcasts a watch us live on YouTube.

838
00:45:07,120 --> 00:45:09,839
Speaker 2: Today we are watching escalating tension in the Middle East

839
00:45:09,880 --> 00:45:14,680
Speaker 2: between Israel and Hesbela. Israel today shooting down the first

840
00:45:14,719 --> 00:45:19,320
Speaker 2: missile ever fired by the Iranian proxy group at Tel Aviv, Hesbela,

841
00:45:19,400 --> 00:45:21,960
Speaker 2: saying that that missile was aimed at the headquarters of

842
00:45:22,000 --> 00:45:26,200
Speaker 2: Israel's external intelligence agency Masad, just outside of the city,

843
00:45:26,239 --> 00:45:29,520
Speaker 2: and in return, Israel is stepping up its heaviest air

844
00:45:29,600 --> 00:45:33,360
Speaker 2: attacks on Hesbela targets in Lebanon since two thousand and six.

845
00:45:33,800 --> 00:45:37,320
Speaker 2: We've already seen hundreds of people die as these strikes

846
00:45:37,360 --> 00:45:39,760
Speaker 2: go back and forth, at least fifty of them children.

847
00:45:39,880 --> 00:45:41,799
Speaker 2: Of course, this is all happening as the US and

848
00:45:41,880 --> 00:45:46,279
Speaker 2: other allies are urging de escalation. In fact, Axios is

849
00:45:46,320 --> 00:45:48,719
Speaker 2: reporting today that the US is actively working on a

850
00:45:48,719 --> 00:45:52,680
Speaker 2: proposal for a temporary ceasefire between Israel and Hezbela. But

851
00:45:52,719 --> 00:45:54,360
Speaker 2: of course the US has also been pushing for a

852
00:45:54,400 --> 00:45:58,600
Speaker 2: seasfire between Israel and Hamas for months now, and we

853
00:45:58,680 --> 00:46:01,719
Speaker 2: know that has yielded so far, not the outcome they've

854
00:46:01,719 --> 00:46:03,960
Speaker 2: been looking for. So let's get into more of this

855
00:46:04,000 --> 00:46:06,480
Speaker 2: now with an expert on the region. Mara Rudmond is

856
00:46:06,560 --> 00:46:08,680
Speaker 2: joining me where she is, of course, a professor at

857
00:46:08,719 --> 00:46:11,920
Speaker 2: the Miller Center at the University of Virginia, also director

858
00:46:11,960 --> 00:46:16,160
Speaker 2: of the Ripples of Hope project focused on democratic solutions.

859
00:46:16,200 --> 00:46:18,640
Speaker 2: Welcome back to Balance of Power, Maara, Always great to

860
00:46:18,719 --> 00:46:22,000
Speaker 2: have you as we consider this notion of a ceasefire

861
00:46:22,080 --> 00:46:26,480
Speaker 2: on Israel's northern border between Israel and Hezbala. Do we

862
00:46:26,520 --> 00:46:29,319
Speaker 2: have reason to believe this is easier to accomplish than

863
00:46:29,320 --> 00:46:31,880
Speaker 2: a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas.

864
00:46:33,960 --> 00:46:37,440
Speaker 9: Thanks Kyley, and good to be with you even in

865
00:46:37,480 --> 00:46:42,480
Speaker 9: these difficult times. To answer your question, no, nothing in

866
00:46:42,520 --> 00:46:47,360
Speaker 9: this region is easy. Nothing in general, in these types

867
00:46:47,400 --> 00:46:50,680
Speaker 9: of conflicts and situations not limited to this region, is easy.

868
00:46:51,840 --> 00:46:55,840
Speaker 9: But there is reason to believe it may be possible,

869
00:46:56,000 --> 00:47:00,400
Speaker 9: if difficult, to get to a temporary ceasefire, primarily because

870
00:47:00,440 --> 00:47:03,160
Speaker 9: it's not in the interests of any of the parties

871
00:47:03,200 --> 00:47:09,439
Speaker 9: involved to lead to something that would be an all

872
00:47:09,480 --> 00:47:12,040
Speaker 9: out war in the region and inevitably pull in Iran

873
00:47:12,120 --> 00:47:14,120
Speaker 9: as well well.

874
00:47:14,160 --> 00:47:17,040
Speaker 2: I wonder how close we are that to that line.

875
00:47:17,080 --> 00:47:19,920
Speaker 2: We keep talking about this notion of potentially it becoming

876
00:47:20,000 --> 00:47:22,480
Speaker 2: a war between Israel and Hesbelah, But when people are

877
00:47:22,560 --> 00:47:26,719
Speaker 2: already dying by the hundreds, when we're already seeing these

878
00:47:26,840 --> 00:47:31,520
Speaker 2: kinds of exchanges, the explosions of hesbola technology, pagers in

879
00:47:31,560 --> 00:47:35,560
Speaker 2: walkie talkies, of course, are we not already there? How

880
00:47:35,600 --> 00:47:38,080
Speaker 2: should we be defining the activity that's happening.

881
00:47:40,120 --> 00:47:44,239
Speaker 9: It's clearly been an escalation and horrific as it may

882
00:47:44,280 --> 00:47:48,200
Speaker 9: be that contemplate, it unfortunately can get much much worse.

883
00:47:49,200 --> 00:47:52,319
Speaker 9: And one of the key lines would be if Israel

884
00:47:52,880 --> 00:47:57,520
Speaker 9: launches a ground offensive as well, which there are reports of.

885
00:47:57,560 --> 00:48:02,400
Speaker 9: The Israeli IDF chief of staff has told reservists that

886
00:48:02,440 --> 00:48:05,440
Speaker 9: have been called up for duty in the north that

887
00:48:05,480 --> 00:48:09,600
Speaker 9: they need to plan for. So bad as things are,

888
00:48:10,239 --> 00:48:13,239
Speaker 9: it can absolutely get worse. The one thing I do

889
00:48:13,280 --> 00:48:16,279
Speaker 9: want to point out to Achille is hump targeted. These

890
00:48:16,280 --> 00:48:20,120
Speaker 9: strikes have been to date in terms of southern Lebanon,

891
00:48:20,280 --> 00:48:26,879
Speaker 9: even though as always unfortunately there are innocent civilians in

892
00:48:26,920 --> 00:48:31,440
Speaker 9: the region in the area who are directly affected. But

893
00:48:31,560 --> 00:48:35,480
Speaker 9: the strikes have been targeted strikes, and starting from the

894
00:48:35,480 --> 00:48:38,960
Speaker 9: most targeted possible, which was has go out pages and

895
00:48:39,080 --> 00:48:39,920
Speaker 9: walk talkies.

896
00:48:41,080 --> 00:48:44,480
Speaker 2: No, that's a very important point, Mara. I appreciate you

897
00:48:44,480 --> 00:48:48,280
Speaker 2: you emphasizing that. We also have to consider that the body,

898
00:48:48,400 --> 00:48:52,080
Speaker 2: the individuals or the technology being targeted here does belong

899
00:48:52,840 --> 00:48:57,160
Speaker 2: to an Iranian proxy, so aroand theoretically is playing a

900
00:48:57,239 --> 00:48:59,759
Speaker 2: role in this as well. To what extent should we

901
00:48:59,760 --> 00:49:03,719
Speaker 2: believe if Iran is directing or advising Hesbela on its

902
00:49:03,760 --> 00:49:07,719
Speaker 2: conduct escalatory or not moving forward from here, and if

903
00:49:07,760 --> 00:49:10,200
Speaker 2: it is Iran that potentially has the greatest incentive of

904
00:49:10,239 --> 00:49:12,560
Speaker 2: all to encourage restraint.

905
00:49:14,000 --> 00:49:19,319
Speaker 9: So Iron absolutely has an incentive to encourage restraint. I'm

906
00:49:19,320 --> 00:49:21,920
Speaker 9: not sure that Hezbelah itself.

907
00:49:21,920 --> 00:49:26,080
Speaker 14: Is in a position either where they would they would

908
00:49:27,120 --> 00:49:30,080
Speaker 14: their leadership would say this is the opportune time for

909
00:49:30,160 --> 00:49:31,200
Speaker 14: an all out assault.

910
00:49:32,160 --> 00:49:36,040
Speaker 9: And frankly, Israel doesn't have an interest in going to

911
00:49:36,080 --> 00:49:39,560
Speaker 9: the next level, which is a ground invasion, given that

912
00:49:39,560 --> 00:49:42,320
Speaker 9: that did not work out well for them in the past,

913
00:49:42,400 --> 00:49:46,080
Speaker 9: even at the same time that it decimated southern Lebanon,

914
00:49:46,719 --> 00:49:50,239
Speaker 9: but it ultimately in the nineteen eighties for Israel led

915
00:49:50,280 --> 00:49:54,200
Speaker 9: to the growth of the hes Blah that they confront today.

916
00:49:54,800 --> 00:49:58,959
Speaker 9: So it's a complicated situation. No entity, as I said,

917
00:49:59,040 --> 00:50:01,960
Speaker 9: has an interest and has a real interest in escalation.

918
00:50:02,480 --> 00:50:05,400
Speaker 9: But because of the relationships back and forth, and because

919
00:50:05,440 --> 00:50:09,120
Speaker 9: of the interest in all of to turn the other's actions,

920
00:50:09,640 --> 00:50:12,080
Speaker 9: we could end up there. And this is why the

921
00:50:12,160 --> 00:50:17,240
Speaker 9: United States and other leaders in the region and throughout

922
00:50:17,280 --> 00:50:19,760
Speaker 9: the world are working hard to de escalate.

923
00:50:21,080 --> 00:50:24,040
Speaker 2: Well and working hard still at a ceasefire between Israel

924
00:50:24,080 --> 00:50:27,799
Speaker 2: and another proxy hamas we have heard Israel say its

925
00:50:27,920 --> 00:50:30,759
Speaker 2: end goal with this action in the North is to

926
00:50:30,840 --> 00:50:33,480
Speaker 2: be able to return the Israelis from the North who

927
00:50:33,520 --> 00:50:36,200
Speaker 2: have been displaced back to their homes. Hesbula says, if

928
00:50:36,200 --> 00:50:37,840
Speaker 2: you want to do that, if you want the strikes

929
00:50:37,840 --> 00:50:39,960
Speaker 2: on the North to stop, you need to end the

930
00:50:40,000 --> 00:50:43,399
Speaker 2: war in Gaza. Is that really the lynchpin to all

931
00:50:43,440 --> 00:50:46,640
Speaker 2: of this? If a ceasefire agreement could be reached to

932
00:50:46,880 --> 00:50:49,600
Speaker 2: end the fighting in Gaza, is that a credible solution

933
00:50:49,840 --> 00:50:52,320
Speaker 2: to these other problems?

934
00:50:53,840 --> 00:50:57,040
Speaker 9: So I am a strong believer that these are all interlinked.

935
00:50:57,640 --> 00:51:02,320
Speaker 9: Whether one solves a reason helps another harder to say.

936
00:51:03,200 --> 00:51:06,759
Speaker 9: But to me, it's very clear that reaching a ceasefire

937
00:51:07,239 --> 00:51:11,120
Speaker 9: in Gaza between Hermas and Israel, getting the hostages out,

938
00:51:11,600 --> 00:51:17,080
Speaker 9: getting more humanitarian aid, in starting to plan for a

939
00:51:17,200 --> 00:51:19,759
Speaker 9: day after which frankly should have been going on already

940
00:51:19,840 --> 00:51:24,399
Speaker 9: in terms of innocent civilians in Gaza, and frankly pass

941
00:51:24,480 --> 00:51:26,160
Speaker 9: needs in the West Bank as well that are being

942
00:51:26,200 --> 00:51:30,000
Speaker 9: increasingly affected by this. Having a way forward, all those

943
00:51:30,000 --> 00:51:34,600
Speaker 9: things will help make more credible, give more tools to

944
00:51:34,719 --> 00:51:39,400
Speaker 9: get to a ceasefire as well. With hesblog, that's not

945
00:51:39,480 --> 00:51:41,400
Speaker 9: to say they shouldn't the same time be trying for

946
00:51:41,400 --> 00:51:44,440
Speaker 9: a temporary cease fire with has Blah given the increase

947
00:51:44,560 --> 00:51:50,880
Speaker 9: in actions there, but in general, reducing tensions throughout the

948
00:51:50,480 --> 00:51:53,799
Speaker 9: region is critical, and the steps forward that the United

949
00:51:53,840 --> 00:51:56,879
Speaker 9: States laid out frankly back in June for a three

950
00:51:56,920 --> 00:52:01,680
Speaker 9: stage cease fire with Hamas would be appolutely be a

951
00:52:01,800 --> 00:52:02,560
Speaker 9: huge help.

952
00:52:04,200 --> 00:52:04,759
Speaker 6: Well and Mara.

953
00:52:05,080 --> 00:52:09,080
Speaker 2: It's incredible to consider that this conflict, this war with Hamas,

954
00:52:09,120 --> 00:52:11,560
Speaker 2: has now been ongoing for almost a full year. We

955
00:52:11,640 --> 00:52:14,919
Speaker 2: are approaching less than two weeks from now one year

956
00:52:15,040 --> 00:52:19,440
Speaker 2: since the October seventh attack on Israel. Are you concerned,

957
00:52:19,480 --> 00:52:24,000
Speaker 2: given what we're seeing of what that day that market

958
00:52:24,160 --> 00:52:28,080
Speaker 2: could bring. Should we expect to see even greater activity

959
00:52:28,120 --> 00:52:29,480
Speaker 2: around October seventh.

960
00:52:31,440 --> 00:52:34,080
Speaker 9: It's hard to know on what the anniversary date itself

961
00:52:34,840 --> 00:52:38,680
Speaker 9: will bring, other than it is a point of recognition,

962
00:52:39,440 --> 00:52:42,040
Speaker 9: or it should be. We're all involved about how long

963
00:52:42,080 --> 00:52:47,520
Speaker 9: this has gone on, certainly about what triggered the actions

964
00:52:47,600 --> 00:52:51,320
Speaker 9: in Gaza, the horrific attack on Israel on October seventh.

965
00:52:51,600 --> 00:52:54,920
Speaker 9: It is a reminder of just how long the hostages

966
00:52:55,040 --> 00:52:58,440
Speaker 9: have been enduring. Hostages who are still alive have been

967
00:52:58,520 --> 00:53:04,160
Speaker 9: enduring what they are enduring under a monster's control of

968
00:53:04,200 --> 00:53:08,440
Speaker 9: them in the tunnels and other places in Gaza. So

969
00:53:08,560 --> 00:53:13,560
Speaker 9: all of that is very difficult, for sure, and further

970
00:53:13,640 --> 00:53:17,800
Speaker 9: increases should increase the interest of all involved in getting

971
00:53:17,840 --> 00:53:21,760
Speaker 9: to the cease fire agreements before we reach that anniversary.

972
00:53:23,520 --> 00:53:26,640
Speaker 2: Well certainly, and of course, just less than a month

973
00:53:26,640 --> 00:53:29,799
Speaker 2: after that anniversary will bring the US election. And I wonder, Mara,

974
00:53:30,280 --> 00:53:32,719
Speaker 2: the degree to which you think the uncertainty around that

975
00:53:33,080 --> 00:53:37,279
Speaker 2: is to what kind of administration the United States will

976
00:53:37,360 --> 00:53:40,759
Speaker 2: be offering in January, what that administration will look like,

977
00:53:40,800 --> 00:53:43,400
Speaker 2: the kind of policy it's likely to pursue, is actually

978
00:53:43,440 --> 00:53:47,920
Speaker 2: disincentivizing some progress in these areas, because everybody could wait

979
00:53:48,239 --> 00:53:50,640
Speaker 2: and see if they end up with a friendlier outcome

980
00:53:50,640 --> 00:53:51,480
Speaker 2: to their interests.

981
00:53:52,680 --> 00:53:56,000
Speaker 14: Yeah, I understand why you're asking the question, and I

982
00:53:56,080 --> 00:54:00,320
Speaker 14: understand why from the United States perspective that would seem

983
00:54:00,719 --> 00:54:02,400
Speaker 14: to be something others are considering.

984
00:54:02,480 --> 00:54:04,640
Speaker 9: I'm not sure for those in the region, as they're

985
00:54:04,640 --> 00:54:05,800
Speaker 9: making day to day.

986
00:54:05,640 --> 00:54:12,680
Speaker 14: Calculations, that weighs all that heavily, and so I think

987
00:54:12,680 --> 00:54:17,280
Speaker 14: that we may overestimate how others throughout the world weigh

988
00:54:17,360 --> 00:54:23,120
Speaker 14: their day to day actions. Not to say that who

989
00:54:23,160 --> 00:54:27,960
Speaker 14: the United States elects in November would not have big

990
00:54:28,000 --> 00:54:30,120
Speaker 14: consequences for the rest of the world, and most of

991
00:54:30,120 --> 00:54:32,399
Speaker 14: the world recognizes that. I guess the point I'm making

992
00:54:32,480 --> 00:54:35,120
Speaker 14: is just for the specific actions with respect to the

993
00:54:35,160 --> 00:54:37,640
Speaker 14: conflicts we have ongoing there. I'm not sure it's that

994
00:54:37,760 --> 00:54:40,720
Speaker 14: much of a factory. You can weigh it different ways

995
00:54:41,360 --> 00:54:43,280
Speaker 14: for a number of the different players.

996
00:54:44,600 --> 00:54:47,440
Speaker 6: Well, that's fair enough and understood. Morrow.

997
00:54:47,440 --> 00:54:50,600
Speaker 2: Finally, before we let you go, if we consider what

998
00:54:50,680 --> 00:54:54,040
Speaker 2: happens if this de escalation or ceasefire agreement doesn't happen

999
00:54:54,040 --> 00:54:56,520
Speaker 2: in the immediate term, to what extent would you expect

1000
00:54:56,520 --> 00:55:00,239
Speaker 2: that the US has to get more actively involved that

1001
00:55:00,400 --> 00:55:03,799
Speaker 2: US involvement could actually look like. Knowing that if we

1002
00:55:03,880 --> 00:55:08,000
Speaker 2: look back to the attacks Iran attempt to attack Israel

1003
00:55:08,040 --> 00:55:11,520
Speaker 2: that was largely intercepted with the assistance of the US

1004
00:55:11,800 --> 00:55:14,720
Speaker 2: and other allies, would you expect that any US involvement

1005
00:55:14,719 --> 00:55:18,680
Speaker 2: would stay that kind of defensive in that defensive support realm,

1006
00:55:18,719 --> 00:55:21,480
Speaker 2: or could we actually be talking American troops on the ground,

1007
00:55:21,480 --> 00:55:22,440
Speaker 2: in the air, on the water.

1008
00:55:24,239 --> 00:55:27,840
Speaker 9: So there's already been an increase in American troops to

1009
00:55:27,920 --> 00:55:32,319
Speaker 9: the region, I think, probably primarily to help with evacuation

1010
00:55:33,239 --> 00:55:37,240
Speaker 9: and to shore up regional stability. I think that's happened

1011
00:55:37,280 --> 00:55:40,120
Speaker 9: just in the last week or so, and I think

1012
00:55:40,160 --> 00:55:42,840
Speaker 9: it's important to keep in mind that for the broader

1013
00:55:43,320 --> 00:55:46,960
Speaker 9: overall US national security interest, Iran is a real concern

1014
00:55:47,120 --> 00:55:51,480
Speaker 9: and Iran's behaviors are a real concern, and part of

1015
00:55:51,560 --> 00:55:54,640
Speaker 9: trying to resolve the immediate issues between Israel and Hamas

1016
00:55:54,719 --> 00:55:57,440
Speaker 9: and Israel has a law that the United States shared

1017
00:55:57,520 --> 00:56:00,680
Speaker 9: that interest with other key players in the region to

1018
00:56:00,719 --> 00:56:04,480
Speaker 9: be able to shore up an overall strategy and approach

1019
00:56:04,520 --> 00:56:08,280
Speaker 9: and respect to Iran for the region, which is part

1020
00:56:08,360 --> 00:56:12,840
Speaker 9: of the importance of getting as well to getting us

1021
00:56:12,880 --> 00:56:15,120
Speaker 9: back on a two state pathway for a path to

1022
00:56:15,200 --> 00:56:19,400
Speaker 9: new Israeli state. All of that is part and parcel

1023
00:56:19,480 --> 00:56:22,320
Speaker 9: of being able to deal with and address the Iranian concern,

1024
00:56:22,400 --> 00:56:25,040
Speaker 9: which remains at the forefront for the United States.

1025
00:56:26,440 --> 00:56:28,200
Speaker 2: All Right, we'll leave it there, Marara, thank you so

1026
00:56:28,280 --> 00:56:30,879
Speaker 2: much for joining us here on balance of power. Maura

1027
00:56:30,960 --> 00:56:33,319
Speaker 2: Rudman is a professor at the Miller Center at the

1028
00:56:33,400 --> 00:56:36,280
Speaker 2: University of Virginia, also director of the Ripples of Hope

1029
00:56:36,320 --> 00:56:38,800
Speaker 2: project focused on democratic solutions.

1030
00:56:38,800 --> 00:56:40,120
Speaker 6: We always appreciate her time.

1031
00:56:43,480 --> 00:56:46,680
Speaker 4: Thanks for listening to The Balance of Power Podcast. Make

1032
00:56:46,719 --> 00:56:49,680
Speaker 4: sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify,

1033
00:56:49,760 --> 00:56:52,359
Speaker 4: or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find

1034
00:56:52,400 --> 00:56:55,640
Speaker 4: us live every weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern

1035
00:56:55,960 --> 00:56:57,360
Speaker 4: at Bloomberg dot com