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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: It was time for the long awaited, overdue celebration. Two comments,

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Speaker 2: go back, get back, go back, get back goes to win,

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Speaker 2: not just to go.

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Speaker 1: All right, here we go from the test throwing.

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Speaker 2: Into spectatular catch.

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Speaker 1: I'm sitting at a cash touchdowns. We'll see most gamblers

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Speaker 1: when they go to gamble, they go to win. God,

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Speaker 1: that's incredible.

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Speaker 2: Big bank, small banks. I like to make money.

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Speaker 1: All right, this is the ultimate combine you.

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Speaker 2: Want to pull.

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Speaker 1: And we are underway.

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Speaker 2: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast. I am your host,

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Speaker 2: Evan Abrams, and I am joined by my colleague, Action Networks,

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Speaker 2: NFL betting expert in the podcast host here, Chris Raybond.

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Speaker 2: What Fris Raybond? What's up? How are you? And then

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Speaker 2: we can kind of get into the twenty twenty five

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Speaker 2: NFL draft. I mean, I can't believe it. Crazy it's here.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, Evan, what's going on? And I'm doing great. I mean,

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Speaker 1: this is the first podcast, one of the few been

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Speaker 1: in a while at Action where I'm not hosting, so

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Speaker 1: I have to outline. I mean, I'm just trying to

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Speaker 1: I'm just trying to enjoy the good life.

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Speaker 2: Right here. We're trying to make it easy on you, Raybun.

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Speaker 2: I mean, we understand it's the off season. We know

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Speaker 2: everyone's you know, busy, but here, listen, we're gonna talk

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Speaker 2: about the combine, We're gonna hit on off season topics, stats,

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Speaker 2: all things related to the NFL. But to me, I

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Speaker 2: kind of want to toss it to you first. Here.

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Speaker 2: We're gonna have tons of episodes when it comes to

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Speaker 2: these draft for the next nine weeks leading up to

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Speaker 2: the Draft twenty twenty five in Green Bay on April

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Speaker 2: twenty fourth, But I just kind of want to start

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Speaker 2: with the draft itself, Like this is a completely different

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Speaker 2: animal than say traditional betting futures. Like there's there's a

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Speaker 2: lot that goes into this that doesn't go into the

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Speaker 2: modeling on game to game and things like that. So

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Speaker 2: just started off, like, what's your approach when you're betting

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Speaker 2: the draft?

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Speaker 1: Well, the first thing I think it's it's important to

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Speaker 1: look for spots to be contrarian, but in a smart way.

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Speaker 1: Like the biggest thing I think is there's a lot

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Speaker 1: of hive mind, right because you're gonna have your popular mockers,

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Speaker 1: you know, your mel Kuipers and your Dame rugers, and

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Speaker 1: guys like that Daniel Jeremiah and most people betting are

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Speaker 1: gonna just have read one of their mocks or a

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Speaker 1: few of their mocks, so those are gonna be overly

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Speaker 1: priced into the market. I think the best way to

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Speaker 1: look at the draft is every draft is gonna be different,

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Speaker 1: you know, so you want to get a wide range

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Speaker 1: of opinions because that's gonna kind of mirror thirty two

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Speaker 1: different teams decision making. So I like to look at,

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Speaker 1: you know, something like NFL Mock Draft Central. They have

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Speaker 1: all the mock drafters and they kind of take like

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Speaker 1: a consensus of them and you could see, you know,

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Speaker 1: how many people what percentage are picking this X player

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Speaker 1: at pick one and pick two and this and that.

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Speaker 1: So you kind of want to look at range of

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Speaker 1: outcomes a little more and don't really lock in on like, Okay,

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Speaker 1: well mel kiper thinks like this is the top three.

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Speaker 1: Uh So that's what I think too. Another couple of

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Speaker 1: few other tips I would say is, you know, don't

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Speaker 1: confuse with it what a team should do, what they

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Speaker 1: will do. There's a lot of a lot of team needs.

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Speaker 1: That's the big that's the buzzword that goes around a

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Speaker 1: lot in the office's a lot of team needs articles,

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Speaker 1: and you know that doesn't necessarily mean the team is

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Speaker 1: looking at it the way whoever wrote that article is

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Speaker 1: so kind of you know, you want to kind of

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Speaker 1: think pass that fine markets with there's a high upside

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Speaker 1: to be a little bit contrarian. I think, you know,

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Speaker 1: things like team to draft a certain position first. You

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Speaker 1: know a lot of times, you know, out especially outside

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Speaker 1: the top two or three picks, you know, there will

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Speaker 1: be kind of a consensus draft order, and whatever position

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Speaker 1: that player that's the consensus pick would be for that team,

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Speaker 1: he'll have these juice up odds and then something that

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Speaker 1: might make the second most sense. We'll have like long

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Speaker 1: long odds up plus juice, and you can make some

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Speaker 1: good profit kind of betting those kind of things. A

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Speaker 1: first player taken out of position. I remember a few

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Speaker 1: years ago, we're all over Henry Ruggs being the first

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Speaker 1: wide receiver taken. It was him, I think Judy and

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Speaker 1: somebody else, and it was kind of, you know, there

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Speaker 1: was a consensus. I think Judy was expected to go first,

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Speaker 1: but it wasn't that crazy. But yet Ruggs was like

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Speaker 1: six to one. So trying to find situations like that

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Speaker 1: where you're not really going out on a limb, but

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Speaker 1: you are just admitting that the consensus choice or the

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Speaker 1: you know, the most likely thing is not necessarily likely

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Speaker 1: to happen. We know these teams do not think the

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Speaker 1: way a lot of prognosticators do. I mean, we've seen

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Speaker 1: the Raiders go way off the board in the past.

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Speaker 1: Every year there's a few teams that just go way

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Speaker 1: off the board or do something crazy. So I would

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Speaker 1: say kind of keep an open mind non elite quarterbacks,

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Speaker 1: like after you have your your top guys nine a week.

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Speaker 1: Quarterbacks tend to be overvalued. They tend to go later

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Speaker 1: than expected. So if you're betting things like an over

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Speaker 1: under for a quarterback, I would always I usually bet

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Speaker 1: them to go later because and the books control who

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Speaker 1: they list, so generally, if you see there's only gonna

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Speaker 1: be so many players wisted with those o under uh,

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Speaker 1: you know draft pick numbers, So do I get those

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Speaker 1: tend to go later? You know, because like you know,

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Speaker 1: like the book can control who they list, and everyone's optimistic,

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Speaker 1: Like don't pick too optimistic this time of year, Like

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Speaker 1: try to say, okay, but what else could happen? And

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Speaker 1: don't make specific don't make bet some specific picks too

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Speaker 1: far out, like if we're talking today, you know, don't

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Speaker 1: I don't think you want to try to nail down

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Speaker 1: like the exact who's going to be the number four

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Speaker 1: pick or the number whoever picked? Because free agency trades

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Speaker 1: combine even a lot of that, like things could change

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Speaker 1: a lot, and just one one trade for example, or

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Speaker 1: one poor combine performance or whatever can create a whole

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Speaker 1: kind of butterfly effects. So those those would be things

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Speaker 1: I kind.

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Speaker 2: Of look for. Where about you, Yeah, I mean I

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Speaker 2: think you've covered a lot of it. I think the

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Speaker 2: three things I look at is like what type of

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Speaker 2: draft is this? Like is their talent only at the top,

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Speaker 2: Like I think trying to get an idea and that's

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Speaker 2: reading articles and you know, going through tweets and going

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Speaker 2: through information. Also do some self scouting, right and being like,

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Speaker 2: you know, if I were to combine the last three drafts,

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Speaker 2: where would some of these players be? How you know,

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Speaker 2: top heavy?

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Speaker 1: Is it?

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Speaker 2: Do? I think there's gonna be more? So I think

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Speaker 2: doing a lot of that work ends up kind of

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Speaker 2: telling you what I hate using this word, but like

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Speaker 2: what you think they might do? Because in the end,

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Speaker 2: that's what you're that's what you're trying to accomplish here.

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Speaker 2: I think the other one is GM tendencies, So I

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Speaker 2: do think and not just gms. I think it's worth

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Speaker 2: reading who is actually in the room helping make the

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Speaker 2: pick and trying to get an idea of what they

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Speaker 2: kind of tend to do, which sometimes is the GM

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Speaker 2: and in other times it's a little bit more confusing,

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Speaker 2: and then going to your beat writer aspect. I think

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Speaker 2: following a large It's list season is the way I

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Speaker 2: like to call it. Is a file following a larger

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Speaker 2: list of beat writers, but then trying to figure out

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Speaker 2: a narrow down. You know, who is better in what spots.

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Speaker 2: You know, this guy understands the Browns, this person's very

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Speaker 2: good in the NFC North. Like there's certain things like

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Speaker 2: that you tend to pick up on, even if it's

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Speaker 2: your first year doing it. Just following along on a

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Speaker 2: daily basis, I think you start to get some of

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Speaker 2: those approaches. So and I think there's some great stories

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Speaker 2: out there, like the Will Levis going from forty to

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Speaker 2: one to four to one and obviously not being picked

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Speaker 2: first overall, like we have seen tons of different examples

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Speaker 2: of just random scheme at random times and random news.

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Speaker 2: So to me, that is one hundred percent the thing

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Speaker 2: to pay attention to and avoid. But I want to

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Speaker 2: talk two more questions and then we can kind of

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Speaker 2: move on here. So I want you to answer prospect

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Speaker 2: tape and mock draft. So how do you look at

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Speaker 2: some of these prospects? What's your you know, tools you

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Speaker 2: look into to try to differentiate, and are you gonna

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Speaker 2: do a mock yourself? Like what are we doing with here?

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Speaker 1: So I'll answer the prospect tape first because I think

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Speaker 1: that's always an interesting question in terms of the general

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Speaker 1: like stats versus film debate. I'm a both guy like

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Speaker 1: I think both are helpful. Sometimes film tells you something

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Speaker 1: that would take in a long time to figure out,

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Speaker 1: what's stats. Sometimes that's tell you something that would take

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Speaker 1: it would take a long time to figure out with film.

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Speaker 1: That being said, I do watch more film once a

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Speaker 1: guy is already in the NFL. I just think that's

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Speaker 1: more relevant. So, but I do watch prospect tape. However

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Speaker 1: I watch it probably I would think more like more

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Speaker 1: on the casual side is in terms of I'm not

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Speaker 1: really breaking down all twenty two. What I'm just trying

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Speaker 1: to do is get a sense of the prospect of

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Speaker 1: get a sense of guys their their game speed, you know,

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Speaker 1: just guys that stand out, you know, how they look

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Speaker 1: on on film going against other top schools. So I

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Speaker 1: like to watch, uh, top schools going against each other,

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Speaker 1: the schools with the most prospects, and so I can

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Speaker 1: kind of see a bunch of guys like this. But yeah,

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Speaker 1: I'm focusing mostly like or not, I shouldn't say mostly,

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Speaker 1: but I'm focusing a little heavier on offensive skill positions

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Speaker 1: number one, because just during the season, when you're betting,

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Speaker 1: you know, you're betting props. That's usually you know, running

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Speaker 1: backs of our receivers, tight end. So it kind of

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Speaker 1: goes into just what the work I'll be doing in

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Speaker 1: the offseason, I mean in the regular season and fantasy

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Speaker 1: as well. So that's how I'm kind of looking at it.

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Speaker 1: So I am watching these guys, but I found I

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Speaker 1: have been a big like all twenty two breakdown guy,

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Speaker 1: and I found it didn't help me at all so

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Speaker 1: with draft prospects, So I'll watch it a little bit after,

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Speaker 1: Like if I'm trying to get a sense of after

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Speaker 1: the draft that is, if I'm trying to get a

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Speaker 1: sense of, Okay, why did a team take this player?

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Speaker 1: You know, what did they see in terms of how

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Speaker 1: he might be used, how he might fit into what

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Speaker 1: they already have going on, then I think it's a

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Speaker 1: bit more relevant. But just trying to watch all twenty

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Speaker 1: two prior to the draft hasn't really helped me personally,

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Speaker 1: So I'm bigger on just kind of getting a sense

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Speaker 1: of them. And then as far as you know, doing mocks,

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Speaker 1: I don't do a mock myself. I think there are

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Speaker 1: people that put a lot more, you know, have a

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Speaker 1: lot more knowledge in that area.

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Speaker 2: I don't.

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Speaker 1: I don't consider myself a quote unquote draft expert, like

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Speaker 1: I know these guys, but I think, you know, my

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Speaker 1: specialty is still NFL you know, futures, regular season, fantasy,

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Speaker 1: all that kind of stuff, week to week betting. But

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Speaker 1: what I will say is I usually have kind of

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Speaker 1: a and it's like range of outcomes. So I might

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Speaker 1: have Okay, for pick one, this percent like Campbell or

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Speaker 1: seventy percent should or twenty percent Travis one hundred ten percent.

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Speaker 1: Like that's how I kind of look at the draft.

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Speaker 1: I don't think anything's for certain So I'm just trying

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Speaker 1: to find range of outcomes for each pick and then

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Speaker 1: find markets where I can take advantage of that, where

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Speaker 1: where a certain outcome might be a little over undervalue.

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Speaker 1: But I do look at a lot of other mock drafts.

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Speaker 1: I like to look at again, consensus mock drafts, not

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Speaker 1: to find that one consensus pick, but to see all

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Speaker 1: of the different potential picks that you know, people who

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Speaker 1: do you know, put their blood, sweat and tears into

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Speaker 1: this all all year long, where they're kind of looking

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Speaker 1: at it. Because I like to get a difference of opinion.

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Speaker 1: I think that's so important, getting a difference of opinion

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Speaker 1: because I think a lot of people, again, the biggest

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Speaker 1: mott drafters I think have an outsize effect on the market.

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Speaker 1: So you talk about your Kiper's, your Jeremia is, your Brugglers,

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Speaker 1: those guys like that. Everyone's going to read those guys.

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Speaker 1: But there's a lot of people who you know are

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Speaker 1: mock drafted, and there's like hundreds of people that some

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Speaker 1: of them are really good. They might have a better

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Speaker 1: sense once you look at just the entire spectrum of

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Speaker 1: the potential players that could be selected at each pick,

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Speaker 1: in the order they give you a much better idea.

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Speaker 1: I think the guys that you can read just going

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Speaker 1: to ESPN or wherever that's already priced in, you're not

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Speaker 1: gonna really find anything special. I think that's probably how

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Speaker 1: the books are pricing most of these. You know, they're

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Speaker 1: not going to spend too much time pricing these. You're

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Speaker 1: just still like you know, like super Bowl props or

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Speaker 1: things like that.

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Speaker 2: I mean, to me, the most interesting thing you said

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Speaker 2: was is that the big boys, the Kuipers, you know,

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Speaker 2: the people in that are even Micshaye. People who do

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Speaker 2: all that work tend to move, tend to move the lines.

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Speaker 2: And it doesn't mean they're always right, because sometimes they

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Speaker 2: are and sometimes they're not. But the other ones in

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Speaker 2: a consensus, I think, kind of give me the big picture,

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Speaker 2: Like I want to know of the top twenty five.

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Speaker 2: You know, okay, twenty three have this person going here,

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Speaker 2: but what are the other two even think? Like? Because

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Speaker 2: to me, it's not that I'm going to listen to

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Speaker 2: all information, but I think it's good to get a

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Speaker 2: lot of the information and then figure out which ones

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Speaker 2: you kind of want to act on. The only thing

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Speaker 2: I'll say about tape I tend to use it only

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Speaker 2: to rank in position. So like, if I'm having a difficulty,

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Speaker 2: like ranking wide receivers in terms of what I think

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Speaker 2: in terms of talent, I tend to go to tape

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Speaker 2: sometimes to give me a little bit of a picture

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Speaker 2: maybe I can't see in like the separation stats or

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Speaker 2: anything like that on paper. So and I think the

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Speaker 2: other interesting thing before we get into the number one

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Speaker 2: pick we're going to talk about the quarterbacks and such,

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Speaker 2: is just be careful in terms of like the different

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Speaker 2: draft markets. Right, so if you like Will Johnson to

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Speaker 2: go top five, but you also like them to go

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Speaker 2: five to the Jaguars, like, there's just different markets to

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Speaker 2: attack your theory. So definitely make sure you're like shopping

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Speaker 2: each of the books to do the digging to see

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Speaker 2: which of the different lines are available and find the

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Speaker 2: one that matches what you're trying to accomplish most, I

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Speaker 2: think is the best way I would attack it, absolutely,

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Speaker 2: all right, let's do it number one pick in the draft.

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Speaker 2: So obviously we are a bit far out now. I

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Speaker 2: can only see about three markets that are kind of

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Speaker 2: up in this area, which is who is going to

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Speaker 2: go first overall? And then there's a market for the

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Speaker 2: team to draft first, and then the first quarterback drafted,

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Speaker 2: which that third market only really interesting if you think

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Speaker 2: that Abdul Carter, Travis Hunter like someone like that has

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Speaker 2: a shot at one. But I kind of open up

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Speaker 2: the floor to you before I give a thought or

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Speaker 2: two here obviously super early and not tons of markets.

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Speaker 2: But cam Ward minus one forty, minus one fifty, he's

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Speaker 2: the odds on favorite to go first overall. Do you

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Speaker 2: think that's right? And what are your thoughts?

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Speaker 1: I think it is. I think when you look so

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Speaker 1: for the number one pick, you got cam Ward, he's

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Speaker 1: around minus one forty, got Abdul Carter at plus one

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Speaker 1: seventy five, Travis Hunter plus five fifty, always around plus

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Speaker 1: seven to fifty. So I think cam Ward at that

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Speaker 1: price probably gets shorter then longer, because you know, right

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Speaker 1: now we are still far out, and like I said,

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Speaker 1: don't want to there's no short things in the draft,

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Speaker 1: and a lot can happen. But when I just look

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Speaker 1: at like, for example, let's look at the first quarterback draft,

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Speaker 1: and now you have cam Ward at minus two seventy five,

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Speaker 1: shoudor at plus two hundred, and then Jackson dart is

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Speaker 1: twenty five to one and Milrow and ers are you know,

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Speaker 1: sixty to one or greater. So really you're talking cam

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Speaker 1: and should Or. I think most teams have cam should

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Speaker 1: or you know, he's not gonna really do a true

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Speaker 1: combine or anything like that, so I don't think that's

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Speaker 1: gonna really change too much. And then I look at

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Speaker 1: the teams Tennessee minus two seventy five to draft at

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Speaker 1: that first pick, which means essentially they don't trade out

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Speaker 1: or anything like that. And then you have, you know,

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Speaker 1: teams that could potentially trade there, like like Vegas, the

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Speaker 1: Giants or whatnot. I just don't see Tennessee if they

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Speaker 1: stand pat passing over a quarterback, and I think they

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Speaker 1: would have cam Ward higher than should Or. And then

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Speaker 1: I also don't think anyone who trades to number one,

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Speaker 1: I don't think they do it for any reason of

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Speaker 1: then to draft a quarterback. So that like I think there's, uh,

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Speaker 1: you know, there could be teams that trade up. You know,

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Speaker 1: maybe Travis Hunter throws a wrench, and I think he's

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Speaker 1: the only other one that I would say, maybe you

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Speaker 1: take a long shot on at number one pick at

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Speaker 1: plus five fifty because I think there's not a lore

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Speaker 1: of the you know, two way athlete that you know,

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Speaker 1: we just haven't seen in a while. But I just

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Speaker 1: can't see Tennessee not taking a quarterback there, and I

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Speaker 1: can't see anything that trades up to there not taking

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Speaker 1: a quarterback, and thus, and I think cam Ward is

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Speaker 1: going to be the pick Overshuore. So that's that to me,

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Speaker 1: is still the market with the most value. But these

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Speaker 1: are another thing I should say, and you kind of

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Speaker 1: alluded to it, Evan, is these are the chalk markets,

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Speaker 1: right like, these are the markets everyone wants to bet

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Speaker 1: and get right, like, you don't have to bet these

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Speaker 1: markets like these are There's so many other markets where

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Speaker 1: you could kind of if you have a contrarian viewpoint

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Speaker 1: or something, you'll probably get better odds. But just based

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Speaker 1: on these three kind of the most popular ones, i'd

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Speaker 1: say cam more odds are likely to get shorter than longer.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, if I'm making a bet now, it's Ward in

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Speaker 2: that one forty slot that I see minus one forty

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Speaker 2: in terms of number one. My reasoning kind of is

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Speaker 2: pretty simple. I don't feel like the top of this

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Speaker 2: class compares well to other classes, which says to me,

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Speaker 2: if Tennessee's gonna trade the pick. They're gonna trade it

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Speaker 2: to someone who really, really really loves something at the

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Speaker 2: top of the draft there they're gonna want to take

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Speaker 2: and they're gonna give Tennessee enough to give the pickaway.

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Speaker 2: And I just don't see that. I don't see the

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Speaker 2: player there that's going to a give them enough to

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Speaker 2: trade it and b take them away from taking the

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Speaker 2: quarterback when I mean, you know, I understand that it's

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Speaker 2: not a betting point of view and they don't care.

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Speaker 2: But they went two and fifteen against the spread last year.

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Speaker 2: They were absolutely god terrible, and I think they need

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Speaker 2: a to sell tickets and be a guy like Cam

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Speaker 2: who is a you know, he's electric in his own right.

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Speaker 2: I think he's different than Shador and I think his

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Speaker 2: size and certain aspects of his game are going to

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Speaker 2: make teams prefer him. So that that's probably the angle

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Speaker 2: that I would take if I were to get crazy

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Speaker 2: and say, Okay, if they were to trade the pick,

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Speaker 2: should we take a chance on one of these teams

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Speaker 2: to draft number one? Overall? I'm not telling you to

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Speaker 2: lay minus two to seventy five, because again, I'd rather

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Speaker 2: lay the minus one forty. But I mean a team

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Speaker 2: like the Saints or a team like the Raiders, to me,

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Speaker 2: might make the most sense to splash up and take Cam.

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Speaker 2: So I mean, obviously one's five to one and one's

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Speaker 2: sixty to one. Two very different situations. But that's the

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Speaker 2: way I look at the market on you know, February

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Speaker 2: twenty fourth, twenty fifth, right, I.

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Speaker 1: Would I would, I would throw in. I would say

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Speaker 1: Cleveland's twenty five to one. They're gonna move on one

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Speaker 1: spot though, And what do you think that's? Well, like

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Speaker 1: that's my here hear me out the Giants. Cleveland is

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Speaker 1: twenty five to one and the Giants are six to one.

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Speaker 1: I just don't know if like because you kind of

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Speaker 1: mentioned it, there's there's not an overwhelming like guy that

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Speaker 1: like Kim Ward is the top quarterback. But I don't

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Speaker 1: know if teams are gonna like him enough. But if

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Speaker 1: they are, and the only way I see Tennessee making

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Speaker 1: a trade is if they still get one of those

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Speaker 1: top you know, three or four picks. Like I can't

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Speaker 1: see Tennessee trading you know, down to like nine or ten.

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Speaker 1: I just think that would be brutal for that franchise.

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Speaker 1: Like I just don't think they would pass on a

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Speaker 1: quarterback pass, you know, trade out of the top five

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Speaker 1: or whatever. Not now they could, they could, you know,

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Speaker 1: there could be like a bunch of trades and the

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Speaker 1: trade out and trade back in. But again that's what

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Speaker 1: makes the draft, you know, so difficult and opens up

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Speaker 1: for a long shot. But I actually would look at

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Speaker 1: those top two teams because again the masses don't think

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Speaker 1: that's gonna happen. You know, the Giants are third on

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Speaker 1: the list, but they're six to one. That's decent odds.

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Speaker 1: And then the Browns a fifth at twenty five to one,

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Speaker 1: so it's still top five. They're not out of the realm,

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Speaker 1: but their odds are are good. So I would that's

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Speaker 1: the teams I actually look for. Again, that's that's how

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Speaker 1: I tend to think of the of things, like right now,

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Speaker 1: you know, no one really knows anything, and everyone's kind

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Speaker 1: of going off the consensus. And because even some of

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Speaker 1: these popular mocks they'll have like trade some won't, you know,

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Speaker 1: but just I just can't see Tennessee trading down and

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Speaker 1: missing out, and like all of those top prospects. So

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Speaker 1: that's why I think, you know, the team like the

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Speaker 1: Giants of Cleveland could very well be involved something.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. I don't mind that at all. I mean I

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Speaker 2: think about it and say to myself, well, trading from

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Speaker 2: two to one, but Cleveland's a mess, and you know,

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Speaker 2: if they're gonna find something they like that they think

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Speaker 2: they're gonna want to replace the Sean within a year

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Speaker 2: or so, I guess it could make sense there. All right, Well,

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Speaker 2: that's the number one pick. That's the draft kind of

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Speaker 2: at the moment right now. So I think it's probably

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Speaker 2: good to move forward to just some of the offseason stuff,

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Speaker 2: and we're gonna touch on the draft kind of in

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Speaker 2: each of these categories, because how could you not with

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Speaker 2: some of this. But we're gonna start with the QB

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Speaker 2: needy teams. So thirty two teams in the NFL, but

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Speaker 2: definitely all of them don't need quarterbacks. So I kind

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Speaker 2: of did this exercise. I'm sure you did as well.

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Speaker 2: But at the current moment, given the rumor, trades, the staffords,

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Speaker 2: the things, the weird stuff, how many quarterbacks? How many

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Speaker 2: teams right now need a quarterback? So I'll let you start.

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Speaker 2: Where's your head at in this discussion?

432
00:20:11,800 --> 00:20:17,199
Speaker 1: I count nine teams, so I think Tennessee, Cleveland Giants.

433
00:20:17,200 --> 00:20:21,000
Speaker 1: Those are the top three. Vegas at six, the Jets

434
00:20:21,000 --> 00:20:27,959
Speaker 1: at seven, the Saints at nine, Pittsburgh. I count them,

435
00:20:28,040 --> 00:20:31,919
Speaker 1: and then not everyone will agree. I say, the Indianapolis

436
00:20:31,960 --> 00:20:35,840
Speaker 1: Colts need a quarterback as well, and then the Rams

437
00:20:35,840 --> 00:20:40,119
Speaker 1: would be that nineteen if Matthew Stafford got traded. Where's

438
00:20:40,119 --> 00:20:40,640
Speaker 1: your account?

439
00:20:41,000 --> 00:20:46,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, so we agree on the I'll go AFC first. Jets, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Tennessee,

440
00:20:47,000 --> 00:20:50,600
Speaker 2: Vegas are I think the easy five. And then after that,

441
00:20:50,920 --> 00:20:52,880
Speaker 2: I tend to agree with you with Indy, they were

442
00:20:52,880 --> 00:20:55,520
Speaker 2: on my list. They're talking about bringing in a veteran anyway,

443
00:20:55,640 --> 00:20:59,280
Speaker 2: so I think there is like competition aspects of that

444
00:20:59,359 --> 00:21:02,520
Speaker 2: quarterback room. And then the one I wrote down, which

445
00:21:02,560 --> 00:21:05,320
Speaker 2: is definitely not true now, but I feel like they're

446
00:21:05,359 --> 00:21:08,720
Speaker 2: thinking about what's next. Is Miami two is the guy

447
00:21:08,760 --> 00:21:11,000
Speaker 2: at the moment. But I feel like I also wanted

448
00:21:11,040 --> 00:21:12,840
Speaker 2: to write down on this list if I thought a

449
00:21:12,880 --> 00:21:15,800
Speaker 2: team was going to get overwhelmed and they were willing

450
00:21:15,840 --> 00:21:18,240
Speaker 2: to maybe do something we weren't seeing, you know, I

451
00:21:18,280 --> 00:21:20,040
Speaker 2: put a dot dot dot in another team and that

452
00:21:20,160 --> 00:21:25,600
Speaker 2: was Miami NFC Giants. So I think Minnesota's on the list,

453
00:21:25,680 --> 00:21:27,560
Speaker 2: just because I think they're deciding on what to do.

454
00:21:27,640 --> 00:21:30,240
Speaker 2: I think they probably have their quarterback, but I think

455
00:21:30,440 --> 00:21:33,760
Speaker 2: there's some decisions to be made there New Orleans, and

456
00:21:33,800 --> 00:21:37,320
Speaker 2: then the Rams are kind of deciding what to do

457
00:21:37,480 --> 00:21:40,120
Speaker 2: in one sense because they're deciding to get rid of Stafford.

458
00:21:40,320 --> 00:21:43,480
Speaker 2: So it basically kind of create an opening, and that's

459
00:21:43,560 --> 00:21:45,159
Speaker 2: kind of it. Like the other ones I had on

460
00:21:45,160 --> 00:21:48,399
Speaker 2: my list, I don't really think kind of involve themselves

461
00:21:48,400 --> 00:21:50,760
Speaker 2: in this conversation, which would be like a Seattle in

462
00:21:50,800 --> 00:21:53,600
Speaker 2: a Dallas, because I think they're both very settled with

463
00:21:53,720 --> 00:21:56,800
Speaker 2: Gino and Dak at least for this year, So I

464
00:21:56,840 --> 00:21:58,960
Speaker 2: think that conversation is a bit aside. So that's the

465
00:21:58,960 --> 00:22:01,080
Speaker 2: way I broke it down. But I do think what's

466
00:22:01,119 --> 00:22:03,800
Speaker 2: interesting is it's kind of all the teams that we mentioned,

467
00:22:03,960 --> 00:22:06,560
Speaker 2: I don't think any of them are less than like

468
00:22:06,680 --> 00:22:09,520
Speaker 2: thirty to one to win the super Bowl. So it's

469
00:22:09,560 --> 00:22:12,480
Speaker 2: really a take your shot of these long shots here.

470
00:22:13,560 --> 00:22:16,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, and you know, I know you've done some great

471
00:22:16,160 --> 00:22:18,320
Speaker 1: work kind of looking at and we'll probably talk about

472
00:22:18,320 --> 00:22:19,680
Speaker 1: this a little more in depth, but you know, there's

473
00:22:19,720 --> 00:22:23,639
Speaker 1: certain it's kind of a cutoff even to what teams

474
00:22:23,680 --> 00:22:25,360
Speaker 1: are true contenders for the Super Bowl. I think it's

475
00:22:25,359 --> 00:22:27,359
Speaker 1: around like twelve to one or something, and you know,

476
00:22:27,720 --> 00:22:29,720
Speaker 1: these odds could obviously change, but I think the only

477
00:22:29,760 --> 00:22:32,720
Speaker 1: teams that you could see even jumping into that list

478
00:22:32,760 --> 00:22:36,239
Speaker 1: if they have a great offseason would be probably of

479
00:22:36,240 --> 00:22:39,360
Speaker 1: the ones that we mentioned would be the Rams, and yeah,

480
00:22:39,400 --> 00:22:43,320
Speaker 1: I mentioned Pittsburgh. I think Pittsburgh potentially. But the thing

481
00:22:43,320 --> 00:22:45,680
Speaker 1: about the AFC, when you're looking for Super Bowl odds,

482
00:22:45,880 --> 00:22:49,080
Speaker 1: I almost like I never really get excited because I'm like,

483
00:22:49,280 --> 00:22:51,720
Speaker 1: all right, if a team could like let's say, if

484
00:22:51,760 --> 00:22:54,280
Speaker 1: the Commanders are in the AFC, I mean, you still

485
00:22:54,280 --> 00:23:00,160
Speaker 1: have to get past you know, my homes Allen Lamar Burroughan.

486
00:23:00,160 --> 00:23:02,399
Speaker 1: It's just so tough. And you know the Texans, you

487
00:23:02,440 --> 00:23:05,120
Speaker 1: know now they they fired slow, Maybe they bounce back

488
00:23:05,160 --> 00:23:06,960
Speaker 1: if they you know, can can get a couple of

489
00:23:07,000 --> 00:23:09,800
Speaker 1: guys who can block for CJ. Like there's just there's

490
00:23:09,840 --> 00:23:13,879
Speaker 1: like a line awaiting a line in the in the AFC,

491
00:23:13,920 --> 00:23:16,240
Speaker 1: whors in the NFC. You could see a team like

492
00:23:16,480 --> 00:23:21,080
Speaker 1: Washington ascend from like first to the NFC the last

493
00:23:21,080 --> 00:23:23,800
Speaker 1: to the NFC Championship game because there's just not as

494
00:23:23,840 --> 00:23:27,439
Speaker 1: much competition one team like the Niners, suffers a lot

495
00:23:27,480 --> 00:23:29,760
Speaker 1: of injuries that leaves like one, you know, one or

496
00:23:29,760 --> 00:23:32,840
Speaker 1: two true contenders, and then one of them gets upset

497
00:23:32,840 --> 00:23:34,440
Speaker 1: and next thing you know, you have like a Washington

498
00:23:34,640 --> 00:23:36,800
Speaker 1: on the precipice of a Super Bowl. So I think

499
00:23:36,840 --> 00:23:39,879
Speaker 1: the NFC is generally where I look at just I

500
00:23:39,960 --> 00:23:41,840
Speaker 1: kind of pay more attention to these NFC teams, and

501
00:23:41,840 --> 00:23:43,960
Speaker 1: that would be so the Rams kind of stick out

502
00:23:43,960 --> 00:23:47,480
Speaker 1: there because it's kind of tough to see what they're

503
00:23:47,520 --> 00:23:50,680
Speaker 1: thinking would be if they move on from Stafford because

504
00:23:50,680 --> 00:23:53,600
Speaker 1: there's not that many options out there for them that

505
00:23:53,600 --> 00:23:55,720
Speaker 1: would make them better than they were with Stafford. But

506
00:23:56,080 --> 00:23:58,880
Speaker 1: their their team, Like I like the way their defense developed,

507
00:23:59,640 --> 00:24:01,520
Speaker 1: the we have talent on the offensive side and a

508
00:24:01,520 --> 00:24:03,960
Speaker 1: great coach who's been there and done that a couple

509
00:24:04,000 --> 00:24:06,280
Speaker 1: of times. So the Rams would be a team I'm

510
00:24:06,280 --> 00:24:09,119
Speaker 1: watching if they could, you know, if depending on I mean,

511
00:24:09,160 --> 00:24:10,840
Speaker 1: even if Stafford comes back. I thought he looked pretty

512
00:24:10,840 --> 00:24:13,200
Speaker 1: good down the stretch, but I mean maybe they're trying

513
00:24:13,200 --> 00:24:15,200
Speaker 1: to get ahead of this. So interesting to see what

514
00:24:15,240 --> 00:24:16,200
Speaker 1: happens with the Rams.

515
00:24:16,640 --> 00:24:18,760
Speaker 2: And I think the Rams are the right call. I

516
00:24:18,800 --> 00:24:21,000
Speaker 2: see him thirty two to one, right, now. I mean

517
00:24:21,040 --> 00:24:24,760
Speaker 2: I also think there's probably a Cooper Cup gets traded,

518
00:24:24,960 --> 00:24:28,119
Speaker 2: everyone thinks it means something, and that goes to thirty

519
00:24:28,160 --> 00:24:30,440
Speaker 2: five to one thirty, So like, I feel like there's

520
00:24:30,440 --> 00:24:34,440
Speaker 2: still like a potential bump up before something major happens

521
00:24:34,800 --> 00:24:36,440
Speaker 2: in that team that you could even wait it out

522
00:24:36,440 --> 00:24:38,960
Speaker 2: a tiny bit. The other one, again is Minnesota, also

523
00:24:39,040 --> 00:24:41,240
Speaker 2: at thirty two to one. I do feel like whatever

524
00:24:41,320 --> 00:24:43,879
Speaker 2: is going to happen there, Yeah, maybe the hardest division

525
00:24:43,920 --> 00:24:46,240
Speaker 2: we've ever seen in our lives, but I'm staying in

526
00:24:46,280 --> 00:24:50,679
Speaker 2: the NFC and believing that, like the overall collection of

527
00:24:50,720 --> 00:24:54,040
Speaker 2: talent on that team is still worthy of somewhat in

528
00:24:54,080 --> 00:24:56,480
Speaker 2: that slot. The crazy thing is, and you mentioned with

529
00:24:56,520 --> 00:24:59,679
Speaker 2: the NFCAFC you don't hit another AFC team. I mean,

530
00:24:59,720 --> 00:25:01,880
Speaker 2: my he's forty two to one, but Pittsburgh's at eighty

531
00:25:01,920 --> 00:25:04,720
Speaker 2: to one, So that is really like that is really

532
00:25:04,760 --> 00:25:07,520
Speaker 2: the next one you hit on this list, which kind

533
00:25:07,560 --> 00:25:09,600
Speaker 2: of tells to your point that, like the NFC is

534
00:25:09,720 --> 00:25:12,320
Speaker 2: one injury away, and you know you don't know what

535
00:25:12,359 --> 00:25:14,439
Speaker 2: the Lions are going to be in that slot. So

536
00:25:14,440 --> 00:25:17,840
Speaker 2: I do feel like that is the Conference of Opportunity,

537
00:25:18,080 --> 00:25:20,880
Speaker 2: I'll call it. You have a team at the bottom

538
00:25:20,880 --> 00:25:23,400
Speaker 2: here in Red, which I actually thought about as well.

539
00:25:23,800 --> 00:25:25,880
Speaker 2: They are the one of the longer odds, but they're

540
00:25:25,880 --> 00:25:27,440
Speaker 2: in the NFC. What's your thoughts there.

541
00:25:27,880 --> 00:25:31,440
Speaker 1: Yeah, So the Giants, I think if when you're talking

542
00:25:31,480 --> 00:25:35,159
Speaker 1: about just teams that need a quarterback, we looked at

543
00:25:35,160 --> 00:25:37,000
Speaker 1: we saw Washington what they did last year. We know,

544
00:25:37,119 --> 00:25:38,720
Speaker 1: first of all, we know that no team wins the

545
00:25:38,840 --> 00:25:41,000
Speaker 1: NFCS twice in a row. So Phil, you watch out,

546
00:25:41,160 --> 00:25:43,200
Speaker 1: you're gonna get a whole bunch of Niners injury or something.

547
00:25:43,400 --> 00:25:45,679
Speaker 1: I'm just kidding. I think they're still they still have

548
00:25:45,680 --> 00:25:48,520
Speaker 1: the best roster in private of the league. But you

549
00:25:48,560 --> 00:25:51,200
Speaker 1: look at the Giants, I think that's the team that

550
00:25:51,240 --> 00:25:53,560
Speaker 1: could have sent them the most quickly if they get

551
00:25:53,560 --> 00:25:56,399
Speaker 1: a quarterback. Because you look at the Giants, they if

552
00:25:56,400 --> 00:25:59,000
Speaker 1: they get a quarterback, they have a coach that you know,

553
00:25:59,040 --> 00:26:01,600
Speaker 1: I know he was maligned in Brian daywell, but still

554
00:26:01,640 --> 00:26:04,560
Speaker 1: an offensive minded coach. It's worked with some good quarterbacks,

555
00:26:04,560 --> 00:26:07,320
Speaker 1: so I think it wouldn't be like a Caleb Williams

556
00:26:07,320 --> 00:26:11,879
Speaker 1: and Eberflus situation, like you'd actually have an offensive coach.

557
00:26:12,040 --> 00:26:15,159
Speaker 1: You feel good about that, And like we saw it

558
00:26:15,200 --> 00:26:17,040
Speaker 1: with the commanders. A lot of those holes on the

559
00:26:17,160 --> 00:26:19,760
Speaker 1: roster can go away, or at least you know that

560
00:26:19,800 --> 00:26:22,040
Speaker 1: they look like holes. They can go away if you

561
00:26:22,040 --> 00:26:24,200
Speaker 1: have a quarterback and you know, you kind of piece

562
00:26:24,200 --> 00:26:27,480
Speaker 1: it together with some veterans. I mean, the offensive line

563
00:26:27,480 --> 00:26:30,679
Speaker 1: for the Giants, if Andrew Thomas is healthy, you know,

564
00:26:30,720 --> 00:26:32,639
Speaker 1: and they it might not be as bad as been

565
00:26:32,680 --> 00:26:33,760
Speaker 1: in past years.

566
00:26:33,760 --> 00:26:33,919
Speaker 2: You know.

567
00:26:33,920 --> 00:26:36,159
Speaker 1: I think that they coppled together decent play down the

568
00:26:36,160 --> 00:26:39,520
Speaker 1: stretch even without him at times. You know, they still

569
00:26:39,560 --> 00:26:42,159
Speaker 1: got some guys on that defensive line. You know that

570
00:26:42,280 --> 00:26:44,720
Speaker 1: they do have holes in the secondary. But again, so

571
00:26:44,760 --> 00:26:47,199
Speaker 1: did it seem like Washington. So I do think the

572
00:26:47,240 --> 00:26:49,960
Speaker 1: Giants are interesting. But the thing that holds me back

573
00:26:50,000 --> 00:26:53,720
Speaker 1: on really ever investing into the Giants is I just

574
00:26:54,280 --> 00:26:58,720
Speaker 1: have no respect for their ownership. I think their ownership

575
00:26:58,760 --> 00:27:01,840
Speaker 1: is one of those ownership groups that just medals, you know,

576
00:27:02,080 --> 00:27:05,399
Speaker 1: and and that's that's the kind of blame for the

577
00:27:05,520 --> 00:27:07,760
Speaker 1: lack of success that the Giants have had over the years,

578
00:27:07,800 --> 00:27:09,760
Speaker 1: even when at times they have been kind of a

579
00:27:09,760 --> 00:27:12,119
Speaker 1: trendy pick to you know, ascend quickly or get back

580
00:27:12,119 --> 00:27:15,720
Speaker 1: to where they were. So the Giants are I think

581
00:27:15,800 --> 00:27:18,679
Speaker 1: if you're just saying who could ascend quickly? The Giants

582
00:27:18,680 --> 00:27:20,920
Speaker 1: do stand out, you know, let's say, let's say should

583
00:27:20,960 --> 00:27:23,720
Speaker 1: or turns into a Dayton Daniels type level tow I'm

584
00:27:23,720 --> 00:27:25,639
Speaker 1: not saying, I'm just saying you never know, like you

585
00:27:25,640 --> 00:27:29,560
Speaker 1: can't nothing's a certainty. But Giants, right, Yeah, the Giants

586
00:27:29,560 --> 00:27:32,120
Speaker 1: with the right quarterback, you would be surprised how quick

587
00:27:32,160 --> 00:27:35,960
Speaker 1: they could they could ascend. But I at the same

588
00:27:35,960 --> 00:27:37,600
Speaker 1: time be aware that the Giants have one of the

589
00:27:37,640 --> 00:27:41,040
Speaker 1: worst ownership groups, uh, if not the worst in the NFL.

590
00:27:41,440 --> 00:27:44,280
Speaker 1: Maybe they're not looking at madding ratings. Maybe they should

591
00:27:44,280 --> 00:27:46,000
Speaker 1: be looking at Madding ratings. That's that's how bad they

592
00:27:46,000 --> 00:27:48,280
Speaker 1: are at times. I mean.

593
00:27:48,280 --> 00:27:50,359
Speaker 2: But to say to your point, the Giants I believe

594
00:27:50,359 --> 00:27:52,600
Speaker 2: were close to like three hundred or four hundred to one.

595
00:27:52,600 --> 00:27:54,760
Speaker 2: They're down to two hundred to one. But you look

596
00:27:54,800 --> 00:27:56,920
Speaker 2: at the Super Bowl odds in terms of just the

597
00:27:57,040 --> 00:27:59,919
Speaker 2: NFC Giants are two hundred to one, then it's New

598
00:28:00,119 --> 00:28:01,959
Speaker 2: Orleans at t one hundred and twenty to one, and

599
00:28:02,040 --> 00:28:03,880
Speaker 2: then you get to Dallas in fifty five to one.

600
00:28:04,359 --> 00:28:07,680
Speaker 2: That's it, like in terms of actual shots that are

601
00:28:08,000 --> 00:28:12,639
Speaker 2: really long in that in that conference. I think there's

602
00:28:12,680 --> 00:28:15,000
Speaker 2: something there that obviously three hundred and four hundreds are

603
00:28:15,040 --> 00:28:17,240
Speaker 2: better number you could shop out there, but I do

604
00:28:17,800 --> 00:28:21,640
Speaker 2: I kind of like the roster. Obviously, Neighbors is a massive,

605
00:28:21,760 --> 00:28:24,560
Speaker 2: massive talent that would love to have a good, decent

606
00:28:24,600 --> 00:28:26,680
Speaker 2: wide receiver, and I think you'd want just some decent

607
00:28:26,680 --> 00:28:29,200
Speaker 2: wide receiver next to him and a quarterback, which I

608
00:28:29,240 --> 00:28:31,439
Speaker 2: think you could get more talent into the building. So

609
00:28:31,760 --> 00:28:33,679
Speaker 2: I think the Giants are just an interesting flyer. So

610
00:28:33,720 --> 00:28:34,600
Speaker 2: I agree the team to.

611
00:28:34,600 --> 00:28:38,520
Speaker 1: Watch, but definitely pay attention to their offseason moves because

612
00:28:38,960 --> 00:28:42,360
Speaker 1: number one is you know, obviously Maret, he's been just

613
00:28:42,640 --> 00:28:45,880
Speaker 1: that ownership group just hasn't worked out, you know, since

614
00:28:45,920 --> 00:28:48,760
Speaker 1: the good old days. And then also I thought I

615
00:28:48,800 --> 00:28:51,840
Speaker 1: thought Joe Shane kind of exposed himself and his thought

616
00:28:51,840 --> 00:28:53,960
Speaker 1: processes behind a lot of decisions, and it didn't really

617
00:28:53,960 --> 00:28:56,880
Speaker 1: reflect well upon him in that Hard Knocks last year.

618
00:28:56,960 --> 00:28:59,239
Speaker 1: So you know, there there would be more than just oh,

619
00:28:59,240 --> 00:29:01,200
Speaker 1: it's almost like there'd be more than just a quarterback.

620
00:29:01,320 --> 00:29:03,280
Speaker 1: They would have to con it would need for the

621
00:29:03,320 --> 00:29:05,040
Speaker 1: Giants to convince me, like I'd have to see a

622
00:29:05,120 --> 00:29:08,800
Speaker 1: lot of moves they made around that quarterback that looks

623
00:29:08,840 --> 00:29:11,280
Speaker 1: smart to me and say, Okay, maybe they've turned a corner,

624
00:29:11,320 --> 00:29:14,840
Speaker 1: maybe they're figuring some things out, because that that team

625
00:29:15,040 --> 00:29:16,600
Speaker 1: that it's just been the same story with them.

626
00:29:16,960 --> 00:29:20,320
Speaker 2: But the way Shane got exposed kind of tells me

627
00:29:20,400 --> 00:29:22,719
Speaker 2: there might be a chance or maybe a greater than

628
00:29:22,720 --> 00:29:25,400
Speaker 2: fifty percent chance of doing a splash because he kind

629
00:29:25,440 --> 00:29:28,160
Speaker 2: of wants to, you know, get himself back in the

630
00:29:28,160 --> 00:29:31,960
Speaker 2: good graces. So we'll see. Let's talk about Rogers and

631
00:29:32,000 --> 00:29:34,520
Speaker 2: Stafford because right now those are kind of the two

632
00:29:35,160 --> 00:29:39,520
Speaker 2: elder statesman esque quarterbacks who could be on the move soon.

633
00:29:39,840 --> 00:29:42,600
Speaker 2: You know, I could say how much in general do

634
00:29:42,760 --> 00:29:46,120
Speaker 2: either of these guys matter, and we'll start there, like,

635
00:29:46,480 --> 00:29:47,920
Speaker 2: compare the two if you can.

636
00:29:49,120 --> 00:29:52,000
Speaker 1: I don't think Rogers moves a needle anymore, you know

637
00:29:52,080 --> 00:29:54,520
Speaker 1: we I mean, granted, the Jets ended up, you know,

638
00:29:54,840 --> 00:29:58,600
Speaker 1: they looked like they were a quarterback away. They obviously

639
00:29:58,720 --> 00:30:00,760
Speaker 1: ended up having a lot more issues in the quarterback.

640
00:30:01,720 --> 00:30:03,800
Speaker 1: I just don't. I just think the current level of

641
00:30:03,840 --> 00:30:07,120
Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers is not a guy moving the needle. I

642
00:30:07,160 --> 00:30:10,440
Speaker 1: think Stafford is kind of on that cusp, I think.

643
00:30:11,440 --> 00:30:14,000
Speaker 1: But but the thing with Stafford is I think he

644
00:30:14,160 --> 00:30:16,280
Speaker 1: probably moves the needle the most for the team. He's

645
00:30:16,280 --> 00:30:19,520
Speaker 1: already on the RAMS because you know, we saw it happen.

646
00:30:19,520 --> 00:30:21,440
Speaker 1: You know, he goes there. The first year he goes there,

647
00:30:22,520 --> 00:30:24,760
Speaker 1: they win a Super Bowl, and he was already old then,

648
00:30:24,800 --> 00:30:29,120
Speaker 1: and at times it looks like he really can't handle pressure.

649
00:30:29,120 --> 00:30:32,520
Speaker 1: But strangely enough, I thought down the stretch he actually

650
00:30:32,560 --> 00:30:35,000
Speaker 1: moved in the pocket better than I've seen him move

651
00:30:35,000 --> 00:30:37,800
Speaker 1: in the pocket some of these other seasons and even

652
00:30:37,800 --> 00:30:40,400
Speaker 1: including his super Bowl winning season. So I would say

653
00:30:40,480 --> 00:30:44,240
Speaker 1: Stafford still probably has that potential. But really, I mean,

654
00:30:44,280 --> 00:30:48,680
Speaker 1: you're looking at the Rams, and I still say the Steelers.

655
00:30:48,920 --> 00:30:51,560
Speaker 1: I know they're they're talking about still choosing between russ

656
00:30:51,600 --> 00:30:54,360
Speaker 1: and and Fields, But I still think the Steelers, given

657
00:30:54,400 --> 00:30:57,400
Speaker 1: that floor you have with Mike Tomlin, where they're always

658
00:30:57,440 --> 00:30:59,960
Speaker 1: up five hundred or better, given that defense, if they

659
00:31:00,120 --> 00:31:02,640
Speaker 1: can keep those guys, their key guys together on defense,

660
00:31:04,080 --> 00:31:07,560
Speaker 1: you know, I think the Steelers would be dangerous even

661
00:31:07,600 --> 00:31:09,840
Speaker 1: in the AFC because they Because the thing is, if

662
00:31:09,840 --> 00:31:11,640
Speaker 1: you have a quarterback and you can win those ugly

663
00:31:11,720 --> 00:31:14,840
Speaker 1: defensive battles, you know that that that kind of is

664
00:31:14,840 --> 00:31:16,920
Speaker 1: a little bit different from you know, some of these

665
00:31:16,960 --> 00:31:20,160
Speaker 1: other AFC teams in the hunt right now, so or

666
00:31:20,200 --> 00:31:22,720
Speaker 1: at least it puts you, let you know, those defensive games,

667
00:31:22,800 --> 00:31:24,400
Speaker 1: let you kind of put you in the running.

668
00:31:24,600 --> 00:31:24,800
Speaker 2: You know.

669
00:31:24,880 --> 00:31:29,880
Speaker 1: So like we saw, you know, a team like the Bills,

670
00:31:29,960 --> 00:31:32,200
Speaker 1: you know they made to the AFC champions defense wasn't

671
00:31:32,200 --> 00:31:34,160
Speaker 1: that great? You know? Could could a Steeler team with

672
00:31:34,200 --> 00:31:36,160
Speaker 1: a good quarterback beat a team like the Bills in

673
00:31:36,280 --> 00:31:38,840
Speaker 1: one game in the playoffs? Probably we've seen it. They've

674
00:31:38,880 --> 00:31:41,600
Speaker 1: seen them upset the Bills before. So yeah, I think

675
00:31:41,600 --> 00:31:44,480
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh would be interesting with Stafford. But I don't know,

676
00:31:44,520 --> 00:31:46,680
Speaker 1: what do you what do you think about just these

677
00:31:46,720 --> 00:31:47,400
Speaker 1: two guys.

678
00:31:47,720 --> 00:31:50,240
Speaker 2: I mean, it's a five year age difference. Stafford will

679
00:31:50,240 --> 00:31:52,320
Speaker 2: be forty two in December. He is staff I mean,

680
00:31:52,320 --> 00:31:54,560
Speaker 2: I'm sorry, Rogers will be forty two in December. Stafford's

681
00:31:54,560 --> 00:31:57,920
Speaker 2: thirty seven. I mean, I think overall, Stafford's had a

682
00:31:57,960 --> 00:32:02,640
Speaker 2: better last few years, even with the injury to Rodgers.

683
00:32:03,120 --> 00:32:05,760
Speaker 2: And I think Aaron wasn't as bad last year as

684
00:32:05,800 --> 00:32:07,120
Speaker 2: I think we made it out to be. You look

685
00:32:07,160 --> 00:32:09,000
Speaker 2: at the final numbers, you look at what he did

686
00:32:09,080 --> 00:32:11,000
Speaker 2: in certain spots. Now, yeah, he had the Denver game,

687
00:32:11,040 --> 00:32:13,680
Speaker 2: and there are certain games where he looked really, really bad.

688
00:32:13,800 --> 00:32:16,800
Speaker 2: But I think at the end of the year, he's

689
00:32:16,880 --> 00:32:20,880
Speaker 2: going to be a okay edition and nothing more than

690
00:32:20,880 --> 00:32:23,960
Speaker 2: that to any team. Like when I hear Pittsburgh, I say, okay,

691
00:32:23,960 --> 00:32:27,200
Speaker 2: eighty to one actually sounds good because I don't think

692
00:32:27,280 --> 00:32:31,160
Speaker 2: it's going to be Russ. I don't necessarily believe they're

693
00:32:31,280 --> 00:32:34,760
Speaker 2: just gonna say fields just because Tomlin's seen it, and

694
00:32:34,960 --> 00:32:37,120
Speaker 2: if he liked what he saw, he would have already

695
00:32:37,160 --> 00:32:39,520
Speaker 2: said okay, that might be the direction. He hasn't even

696
00:32:39,600 --> 00:32:41,880
Speaker 2: hinted at that, so I think he's probably scared to

697
00:32:41,920 --> 00:32:44,320
Speaker 2: put all of his eggs in that basket. So I

698
00:32:44,360 --> 00:32:48,960
Speaker 2: think a Stafford to Pittsburgh would probably make it the

699
00:32:49,000 --> 00:32:52,600
Speaker 2: most interesting to me of any of the quarterbacks. And

700
00:32:52,640 --> 00:32:54,840
Speaker 2: that's even talking about we just went through this and

701
00:32:54,880 --> 00:32:56,800
Speaker 2: said we didn't want to go into the AFC because

702
00:32:56,800 --> 00:32:59,479
Speaker 2: of obviously all that garbage and having to go through

703
00:32:59,520 --> 00:33:02,440
Speaker 2: all those guys. But the eighty to one price with

704
00:33:02,600 --> 00:33:05,520
Speaker 2: the defense, and you know, to me, Stafford is the

705
00:33:05,560 --> 00:33:08,280
Speaker 2: interesting play there. You know, it's worth a few dollars.

706
00:33:08,360 --> 00:33:12,760
Speaker 2: I think as just an investment point on Pittsburgh at

707
00:33:12,760 --> 00:33:15,120
Speaker 2: the moment. Do I think it's going to go above

708
00:33:15,200 --> 00:33:18,280
Speaker 2: eighty to one. I don't necessarily think that, especially because

709
00:33:18,600 --> 00:33:20,880
Speaker 2: like we're in the season of adding players more than

710
00:33:20,920 --> 00:33:23,160
Speaker 2: we are probably getting rid of players on that roster.

711
00:33:23,480 --> 00:33:26,000
Speaker 2: So I think eighty might be close to a ceiling.

712
00:33:26,000 --> 00:33:28,440
Speaker 2: That's the way I tend to look at this. So

713
00:33:28,560 --> 00:33:31,280
Speaker 2: I like that price, but I think Stafford is a

714
00:33:31,400 --> 00:33:33,880
Speaker 2: much better ad for any time. I agree with your

715
00:33:33,920 --> 00:33:38,560
Speaker 2: pocket thing you said before about Stafford, especially this past season.

716
00:33:38,600 --> 00:33:40,520
Speaker 2: I also think he's getting it out quicker. I think

717
00:33:40,520 --> 00:33:42,600
Speaker 2: he's getting it out quicker. And I think he's and

718
00:33:42,680 --> 00:33:46,680
Speaker 2: you know, certain't And maybe this is crazy, but how

719
00:33:46,760 --> 00:33:50,280
Speaker 2: much Maybe Cooper cup was a little bit of in

720
00:33:50,840 --> 00:33:53,360
Speaker 2: a reason why we were seeing certain things like maybe

721
00:33:53,400 --> 00:33:57,160
Speaker 2: he's more toast than we'd think, than we know. I

722
00:33:57,200 --> 00:34:00,280
Speaker 2: think there's certain things I'm willing to look at when

723
00:34:00,280 --> 00:34:02,880
Speaker 2: it comes to Stafford in the last year or so,

724
00:34:03,240 --> 00:34:05,120
Speaker 2: and I think there's more there. I think there's a

725
00:34:05,200 --> 00:34:06,000
Speaker 2: chance they can help.

726
00:34:06,840 --> 00:34:12,399
Speaker 1: If if the Rams could have blocked Jalen Carter on

727
00:34:12,400 --> 00:34:15,480
Speaker 1: one of two plays, we might not be talking about

728
00:34:15,520 --> 00:34:17,040
Speaker 1: the Eagles as the Super Bowl winner. I mean, the

729
00:34:17,520 --> 00:34:19,759
Speaker 1: Rams this close to being Egles, Like granted they got

730
00:34:19,760 --> 00:34:22,600
Speaker 1: help from some weather and some some jaywhen hurt. I

731
00:34:22,600 --> 00:34:25,480
Speaker 1: don't know what it was, Russ uncertainly, you know, indecisiveness,

732
00:34:25,600 --> 00:34:28,840
Speaker 1: weather issues, injury issues, whatever. But that's the point, Like

733
00:34:28,920 --> 00:34:32,239
Speaker 1: Stafford has shown Stafford with the Rams at least has

734
00:34:32,280 --> 00:34:35,719
Speaker 1: shown that they have upside, right. So that's why I

735
00:34:35,760 --> 00:34:38,960
Speaker 1: still say Stafford probably is the most valuable on the Rams.

736
00:34:39,480 --> 00:34:41,719
Speaker 1: But I think Pittsburgh is interesting because that it would

737
00:34:41,719 --> 00:34:44,280
Speaker 1: give him a better defense than he's ever had. And yeah,

738
00:34:44,360 --> 00:34:46,560
Speaker 1: you know, you probably still have to get another receiver,

739
00:34:46,680 --> 00:34:48,239
Speaker 1: you know, they have to get you have to get

740
00:34:48,280 --> 00:34:50,200
Speaker 1: somebody to get the ball quick too, because Pickens is

741
00:34:50,239 --> 00:34:53,120
Speaker 1: not that guy. Obviously, he's a downfield guy. But yeah,

742
00:34:53,120 --> 00:34:55,600
Speaker 1: I'm sure they'd use fire was better and whatnot. So yeah,

743
00:34:55,600 --> 00:34:57,000
Speaker 1: that's it's intriguing.

744
00:34:58,080 --> 00:35:00,680
Speaker 2: All right, let's keep moving here. So this topic to

745
00:35:00,760 --> 00:35:02,799
Speaker 2: me is kind of fascinating and it's a great just

746
00:35:02,880 --> 00:35:06,480
Speaker 2: sentence to say, but it's trying to figure out who's

747
00:35:06,640 --> 00:35:11,120
Speaker 2: next year's Eagles, basically, like who's the team that pretty decent,

748
00:35:11,680 --> 00:35:14,520
Speaker 2: good run haven't gotten there yet that we think is

749
00:35:14,560 --> 00:35:16,399
Speaker 2: going to do it. Now. Now, I kind of want

750
00:35:16,400 --> 00:35:17,640
Speaker 2: to set this whole thing up with a bit of

751
00:35:17,680 --> 00:35:20,520
Speaker 2: a stat I gave this out on the favorites before

752
00:35:20,560 --> 00:35:23,359
Speaker 2: the Super Bowl, but I think it's worth probably repeating now.

753
00:35:23,680 --> 00:35:26,600
Speaker 2: So let's say every August for the last ten years,

754
00:35:26,800 --> 00:35:29,279
Speaker 2: you bet every single combination of teams at twelve to

755
00:35:29,320 --> 00:35:32,439
Speaker 2: one or shorter, basically parlaying all the conference title odds

756
00:35:32,480 --> 00:35:35,160
Speaker 2: as a combo. So over the last ten years, that

757
00:35:35,320 --> 00:35:39,400
Speaker 2: strategy has won four times across sixty seven total combinations.

758
00:35:39,719 --> 00:35:41,840
Speaker 2: Last year with the Chiefs and Eagles, along with the

759
00:35:41,880 --> 00:35:46,280
Speaker 2: Chiefs and Niners, Niners and Bucks and Chiefs and Patson Rams,

760
00:35:46,640 --> 00:35:51,000
Speaker 2: so sixty seven total combos, four winning parlays, sixty three losers.

761
00:35:51,280 --> 00:35:54,480
Speaker 2: Basically over the last decade, you would be up about

762
00:35:54,560 --> 00:35:58,759
Speaker 2: twenty one units just doing this blind round robin strategy

763
00:35:59,040 --> 00:36:01,439
Speaker 2: of those twelve to one or shorter super bowls. Now,

764
00:36:01,800 --> 00:36:03,919
Speaker 2: one step further would be what if you just bet

765
00:36:03,960 --> 00:36:06,160
Speaker 2: the teams to win the Super Bowl twelve to one

766
00:36:06,280 --> 00:36:10,200
Speaker 2: or shorter enturing the season last decade. Fifty six total teams,

767
00:36:10,200 --> 00:36:13,439
Speaker 2: so fifty six total bets. It's won nine of ten

768
00:36:13,520 --> 00:36:17,320
Speaker 2: times and lost forty seven. You would be up about

769
00:36:17,440 --> 00:36:21,440
Speaker 2: thirty units. After having both the Eagles and the Chiefs

770
00:36:21,520 --> 00:36:23,880
Speaker 2: in the title game now, for what it's worth, in

771
00:36:23,960 --> 00:36:27,440
Speaker 2: twenty fourteen, which is eleven years back, Patriots won a

772
00:36:27,480 --> 00:36:30,600
Speaker 2: plus six fifty. In twenty thirteen, Seahawks won at eight

773
00:36:30,640 --> 00:36:34,200
Speaker 2: to one, and then twenty twelve was the outlier, which

774
00:36:34,239 --> 00:36:37,160
Speaker 2: is basically eighteen to one for Baltimore, which starts more

775
00:36:37,200 --> 00:36:39,799
Speaker 2: of a long stretch. So I think the question is, now,

776
00:36:39,840 --> 00:36:42,600
Speaker 2: remember these are twelve to one or shorter entering the season.

777
00:36:42,719 --> 00:36:44,839
Speaker 2: So right now, if you know, you have a team

778
00:36:44,880 --> 00:36:46,480
Speaker 2: at Pittsburg and eighty to one and they make a

779
00:36:46,560 --> 00:36:48,439
Speaker 2: huge move and they somehow get the twelve to one,

780
00:36:48,680 --> 00:36:50,200
Speaker 2: they would be a part of this list. So it

781
00:36:50,280 --> 00:36:52,439
Speaker 2: is entering the season. But I think what it says

782
00:36:52,560 --> 00:36:55,000
Speaker 2: is is that you got a lot of good, good

783
00:36:55,040 --> 00:36:57,640
Speaker 2: teams that can only make it through the gauntlet. And

784
00:36:57,680 --> 00:36:59,919
Speaker 2: that's what we've seen, at least recently. The only outl

785
00:37:00,719 --> 00:37:03,560
Speaker 2: is that Eagles team with Nick Foles forty to one

786
00:37:03,880 --> 00:37:04,840
Speaker 2: and during that season.

787
00:37:06,040 --> 00:37:08,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, and so the teams, just to be clear, the

788
00:37:08,680 --> 00:37:14,759
Speaker 1: teams on the list Philly, Casey, Buffalo, Baltimore, Detroit, And

789
00:37:14,800 --> 00:37:17,880
Speaker 1: then is that is that That's.

790
00:37:17,719 --> 00:37:20,120
Speaker 2: What I'm saying, Like it depends on right Yeah, and

791
00:37:20,120 --> 00:37:22,799
Speaker 2: then if you keep going, it would be San Francisco, Cincinnati,

792
00:37:22,800 --> 00:37:24,839
Speaker 2: and Washington. Those are the teams kind of right on.

793
00:37:24,800 --> 00:37:27,919
Speaker 1: The edge, right so and so, right now we're looking

794
00:37:27,960 --> 00:37:31,440
Speaker 1: at five teams. I do think San Francisco, depending on

795
00:37:31,520 --> 00:37:34,000
Speaker 1: how their offseason goes, doubt probably jump into that. I

796
00:37:34,040 --> 00:37:37,440
Speaker 1: think the Bengals were just, you know, kind of always

797
00:37:37,440 --> 00:37:39,000
Speaker 1: going to be a little skeptical because they just have

798
00:37:39,040 --> 00:37:42,040
Speaker 1: how they manage their roster in the past at times.

799
00:37:42,360 --> 00:37:46,920
Speaker 1: But focusing on those those top five teams, your question was,

800
00:37:46,960 --> 00:37:49,319
Speaker 1: you know what kind of one player change can put

801
00:37:49,360 --> 00:37:52,360
Speaker 1: a team back there. I don't. I think the closest

802
00:37:52,440 --> 00:37:55,319
Speaker 1: thing is, no, there's no real team on that list

803
00:37:55,360 --> 00:37:59,120
Speaker 1: where it's obvious except a team that's already been there.

804
00:37:59,160 --> 00:38:01,760
Speaker 1: But looking up what happened in this Super Bowl, Kansas

805
00:38:01,800 --> 00:38:05,040
Speaker 1: City they need to left tackle, right, So I'm looking

806
00:38:05,080 --> 00:38:08,560
Speaker 1: at Okay, can Kansas City get like a Ronnie Stanley,

807
00:38:08,680 --> 00:38:11,640
Speaker 1: you know, somebody to just store up that position, kick

808
00:38:12,000 --> 00:38:15,160
Speaker 1: tuney back inside to guard like that. Everything else with

809
00:38:15,239 --> 00:38:18,120
Speaker 1: Kansas City, You're not worried, right like, you'll figure it out.

810
00:38:18,120 --> 00:38:19,960
Speaker 1: You got my homes. But it was clear that you know,

811
00:38:20,000 --> 00:38:22,400
Speaker 1: before we were saying okay, Kansas City. As long as

812
00:38:22,440 --> 00:38:26,480
Speaker 1: they got my homes read Spagnolah, they're good. But we

813
00:38:26,520 --> 00:38:28,879
Speaker 1: saw it with the Tampa Bay Super Bowl and now

814
00:38:29,120 --> 00:38:31,319
Speaker 1: we've seen it with the Eagle Super Bowl. They need

815
00:38:31,320 --> 00:38:32,480
Speaker 1: to be out with a block from my homes at

816
00:38:32,520 --> 00:38:35,279
Speaker 1: least a little bit. So I think that's probably the

817
00:38:35,360 --> 00:38:38,120
Speaker 1: one guy or you know, I think Rynie Stanley is

818
00:38:38,120 --> 00:38:42,799
Speaker 1: the best tackle available, but just any tackle that fortifies

819
00:38:42,840 --> 00:38:46,880
Speaker 1: that that position for Kansas City. And then there's teams

820
00:38:46,920 --> 00:38:50,680
Speaker 1: outside that list. I think Miles Garrett to Washington could

821
00:38:50,719 --> 00:38:52,640
Speaker 1: be interesting. You know, they needed to pass rush. They

822
00:38:52,680 --> 00:38:56,040
Speaker 1: got a quarterback, they got Latimore, they got some cat space,

823
00:38:56,080 --> 00:38:58,520
Speaker 1: so they will fill o their holes. But outside of that,

824
00:38:58,880 --> 00:39:02,799
Speaker 1: I think Detroit getting a corner maybe even two could

825
00:39:02,800 --> 00:39:05,319
Speaker 1: be big because I think their defense was everyone was like,

826
00:39:05,800 --> 00:39:07,880
Speaker 1: you know, kind of puking on their defense down stretch

827
00:39:07,920 --> 00:39:09,560
Speaker 1: last year. They got a lot of talented players on

828
00:39:09,560 --> 00:39:12,879
Speaker 1: their defense, right, like Aiden Hutchinson, you know, the linebackers,

829
00:39:12,880 --> 00:39:15,279
Speaker 1: the safety branch, the safeties, like there's a lot of

830
00:39:15,320 --> 00:39:17,960
Speaker 1: pieces there. They just but they want to play man coverage.

831
00:39:18,480 --> 00:39:21,480
Speaker 1: They need a week guy or even two. And they

832
00:39:21,960 --> 00:39:24,440
Speaker 1: have the tenth most cap space. But my question would be,

833
00:39:25,000 --> 00:39:28,319
Speaker 1: like who, because they had Carlton Davis already, maybe it's

834
00:39:28,360 --> 00:39:30,760
Speaker 1: Ward Reid. I mean they've been a wead at times,

835
00:39:30,880 --> 00:39:34,320
Speaker 1: Rasul Douglas more of his own guy. Maybe somebody ascends

836
00:39:34,320 --> 00:39:36,880
Speaker 1: to that spout. So I think Detroit couldn't make a

837
00:39:36,960 --> 00:39:39,080
Speaker 1: move that would put them in that, you know, could

838
00:39:39,080 --> 00:39:41,640
Speaker 1: be the difference. But I just don't necessarily know if

839
00:39:41,640 --> 00:39:43,440
Speaker 1: we know who that player is, Like maybe do they

840
00:39:43,480 --> 00:39:47,759
Speaker 1: trade up for like Will Johnson, even a Hunter, you know,

841
00:39:47,760 --> 00:39:50,160
Speaker 1: do they get Morrison? Like it might just be somebody

842
00:39:50,239 --> 00:39:53,520
Speaker 1: we don't know yet, but I think Detroit would be

843
00:39:53,520 --> 00:39:56,280
Speaker 1: the closest thing, like one player away outside of Kansas

844
00:39:56,320 --> 00:39:59,320
Speaker 1: City getting a fortifying that that left tackles.

845
00:40:00,200 --> 00:40:02,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, I kind of wanted to say Buffalo because I

846
00:40:02,960 --> 00:40:05,440
Speaker 2: felt like they were really close in a number of areas.

847
00:40:05,480 --> 00:40:08,439
Speaker 2: But I just don't know if the player is available

848
00:40:08,840 --> 00:40:11,880
Speaker 2: other than maybe like Miles Garrett going to Buffalo, But

849
00:40:12,040 --> 00:40:15,840
Speaker 2: I don't necessarily know if that's the absolute difference. I

850
00:40:15,880 --> 00:40:19,360
Speaker 2: think it's an interesting thought process. I wrote down the

851
00:40:20,080 --> 00:40:23,719
Speaker 2: Detroit corners, I mean Byron Murphy, DJ Reid were two

852
00:40:24,400 --> 00:40:27,160
Speaker 2: players I thought were half interesting, but I agree that

853
00:40:28,040 --> 00:40:30,479
Speaker 2: they're gonna miss a lot this offseason. I think they're gonna,

854
00:40:30,520 --> 00:40:34,880
Speaker 2: you know, between the coordinators and a few exits of players, Yeah,

855
00:40:34,920 --> 00:40:37,200
Speaker 2: there's gonna be a lot of trying to fill holes,

856
00:40:37,440 --> 00:40:39,480
Speaker 2: which scares me a little bit, even though I love

857
00:40:39,560 --> 00:40:41,879
Speaker 2: so much else on that team. I think the other

858
00:40:41,920 --> 00:40:44,440
Speaker 2: big one is like T Higgins, But I don't necessarily

859
00:40:44,480 --> 00:40:46,440
Speaker 2: think T Higgins is good to going to go to

860
00:40:46,520 --> 00:40:49,480
Speaker 2: a team that matters in this sense, Like I wish

861
00:40:49,560 --> 00:40:51,600
Speaker 2: I could put him on Buffalo, or I wish I

862
00:40:51,600 --> 00:40:53,759
Speaker 2: could put him on like some of these teams that

863
00:40:53,880 --> 00:40:56,920
Speaker 2: probably could use more of a solid wide receiver in

864
00:40:56,960 --> 00:40:59,600
Speaker 2: that sense, like Baltimore. Like there's these teams to me

865
00:40:59,640 --> 00:41:02,239
Speaker 2: are kind of missing one of those major guys. I

866
00:41:02,280 --> 00:41:04,239
Speaker 2: don't know if it's the absolute difference between them getting

867
00:41:04,280 --> 00:41:05,920
Speaker 2: to the super Bowl or not, but we're kind of

868
00:41:05,920 --> 00:41:09,800
Speaker 2: trying to plug some holes here. So yeah, T Higgins

869
00:41:10,280 --> 00:41:13,759
Speaker 2: Miles Garrett I wrote down Josh Sweat and Khalil Mack

870
00:41:14,080 --> 00:41:17,400
Speaker 2: as like two options that can just make your team

871
00:41:17,560 --> 00:41:19,520
Speaker 2: tougher to deal with. But I just don't think that

872
00:41:19,600 --> 00:41:21,799
Speaker 2: Saquon Barkley is like available, So I think you're trying

873
00:41:21,800 --> 00:41:24,799
Speaker 2: to play a little bit of checkers and chess to

874
00:41:24,880 --> 00:41:27,719
Speaker 2: figure out, Okay, what's the hole, what's the one or

875
00:41:27,760 --> 00:41:30,120
Speaker 2: two holes that are the biggest, and like where is

876
00:41:30,160 --> 00:41:32,640
Speaker 2: that addition? And I mean, is it going to be

877
00:41:32,719 --> 00:41:35,520
Speaker 2: a rookie? I have a hard time feeling like anyone

878
00:41:35,520 --> 00:41:38,239
Speaker 2: but a quarterback can have that type of impact. And

879
00:41:38,680 --> 00:41:40,239
Speaker 2: you know, if you're taking up of the draft Lake

880
00:41:40,239 --> 00:41:42,920
Speaker 2: Tennessee or Cleveland with the Giants, New England, Jacksonville, like,

881
00:41:42,920 --> 00:41:44,840
Speaker 2: we don't think you're getting into the zone anyway. I

882
00:41:44,960 --> 00:41:47,160
Speaker 2: think it's a little bit difficult aside from the names

883
00:41:47,160 --> 00:41:49,200
Speaker 2: I just said, but I do think Miles Garrett has

884
00:41:49,239 --> 00:41:52,040
Speaker 2: the you know, potential to be that, and then you

885
00:41:52,040 --> 00:41:53,840
Speaker 2: know Cleveland would get the Hall and we kind of

886
00:41:53,880 --> 00:41:57,120
Speaker 2: move on from there. All right, Well, I think that's

887
00:41:57,160 --> 00:42:00,839
Speaker 2: an interesting conversation. I feel like next year's Eagles and

888
00:42:00,920 --> 00:42:02,680
Speaker 2: you know, the additions and this and that kind of

889
00:42:02,680 --> 00:42:04,960
Speaker 2: becomes like a weekly thing at this point to see

890
00:42:05,080 --> 00:42:07,680
Speaker 2: where free agency ends up. But we'll leave it there

891
00:42:07,719 --> 00:42:09,759
Speaker 2: and we're gonna go one more prop here. So I

892
00:42:09,760 --> 00:42:11,640
Speaker 2: saw this up at a few books, and I just

893
00:42:11,640 --> 00:42:14,040
Speaker 2: think it's an interesting conversation point before we get out

894
00:42:14,040 --> 00:42:16,680
Speaker 2: of here, which is will the Super Bowl winner be

895
00:42:16,760 --> 00:42:19,560
Speaker 2: a first time winner. So I looked at the odds.

896
00:42:19,719 --> 00:42:23,080
Speaker 2: I see plus one ninety four yes, minus two forty

897
00:42:23,080 --> 00:42:26,120
Speaker 2: for no. Now, just to be clear, the yes options,

898
00:42:26,120 --> 00:42:31,080
Speaker 2: and I'm just gonna list off a bunch of teams here, Arizona, Atlanta, Buffalo,

899
00:42:31,200 --> 00:42:42,120
Speaker 2: Buffalo is in big letters there. That's a nice one. Carolina, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Detroit, Houston, Jacksonville, Chargers, Minnesota, Tennessee.

900
00:42:42,320 --> 00:42:45,279
Speaker 2: So those are your yes options. So I'll let you

901
00:42:45,320 --> 00:42:48,040
Speaker 2: attack this first. Do you feel like at plus one

902
00:42:48,160 --> 00:42:53,520
Speaker 2: ninety having let's call it Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, and Houston

903
00:42:54,280 --> 00:42:55,800
Speaker 2: with some of the other teams, is it worth it

904
00:42:55,840 --> 00:42:57,360
Speaker 2: to you to me?

905
00:42:58,160 --> 00:43:00,200
Speaker 1: No, because and I'm gonna break this that this is

906
00:43:00,239 --> 00:43:04,080
Speaker 1: my tot pro. So yes, the teams that I'm really

907
00:43:04,200 --> 00:43:07,960
Speaker 1: excited for. If I take that yes or Buffalo, Cincinnati,

908
00:43:08,080 --> 00:43:11,239
Speaker 1: and Detroit, and then you got some longer shots Minnesota,

909
00:43:11,360 --> 00:43:14,719
Speaker 1: maybe some Houston, the Chargers. You can never countermout good coach,

910
00:43:14,800 --> 00:43:19,400
Speaker 1: good quarterback. But that that's the extent of the yeses

911
00:43:19,440 --> 00:43:22,160
Speaker 1: for me. So some good teams in there, but no

912
00:43:22,400 --> 00:43:28,400
Speaker 1: gives you Philly, Casey, Baltimore, San Francisco, Green Bay, Washington,

913
00:43:28,760 --> 00:43:30,640
Speaker 1: and you still got you know, other teams that are

914
00:43:30,640 --> 00:43:35,000
Speaker 1: pretty good that just longer shots because they're still in

915
00:43:35,040 --> 00:43:37,600
Speaker 1: that more wild card mix. But like Tampa Bay, maybe

916
00:43:37,600 --> 00:43:40,360
Speaker 1: the Rams, depending on what they do at quarterback. Dallas

917
00:43:40,760 --> 00:43:42,360
Speaker 1: was winning twelve games a year a couple, you know,

918
00:43:42,440 --> 00:43:45,319
Speaker 1: up until last year, so I put an LOL next

919
00:43:45,320 --> 00:43:48,160
Speaker 1: to them. But I mean some people maybe would say Dallas.

920
00:43:48,800 --> 00:43:52,000
Speaker 1: But here's the thing to me, the lastic Super Bowls.

921
00:43:53,080 --> 00:43:55,120
Speaker 1: First of all, you had two of the same matchups twice,

922
00:43:55,120 --> 00:43:57,560
Speaker 1: So you had Kansas City, San Francisco twice, you had

923
00:43:57,560 --> 00:44:01,239
Speaker 1: Philly Kansas City twice. The Chiefs have been the five

924
00:44:01,320 --> 00:44:04,759
Speaker 1: of the last six, and then it's been you know,

925
00:44:04,800 --> 00:44:10,200
Speaker 1: the Rams, Bucks and Bengals have each gone once, and

926
00:44:10,440 --> 00:44:12,920
Speaker 1: you know the Niners and Eagles twice. So there hasn't

927
00:44:12,920 --> 00:44:15,000
Speaker 1: been a lot of teams. Most of those teams are

928
00:44:15,040 --> 00:44:18,080
Speaker 1: in the know. So if I'm betting on a new winner,

929
00:44:18,520 --> 00:44:19,919
Speaker 1: I think I'm just going back to what we talked

930
00:44:19,920 --> 00:44:24,400
Speaker 1: about previously, Like I'm just gonna bet Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit,

931
00:44:24,920 --> 00:44:27,239
Speaker 1: you know whoever I think among those teams, or you know,

932
00:44:27,280 --> 00:44:28,840
Speaker 1: if I think it's a longer shot, even better, like

933
00:44:28,880 --> 00:44:31,960
Speaker 1: I just think you have more upside from a betting perspective,

934
00:44:32,000 --> 00:44:34,640
Speaker 1: just betting the team or teams that you think will

935
00:44:34,640 --> 00:44:37,080
Speaker 1: be those winners than betting like plus one ninety. I

936
00:44:37,160 --> 00:44:40,200
Speaker 1: just that's just not long enough odds for me to

937
00:44:40,239 --> 00:44:41,720
Speaker 1: say yes, But what are your thoughts?

938
00:44:41,920 --> 00:44:44,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's not long enough, especially because I feel like

939
00:44:45,000 --> 00:44:48,120
Speaker 2: my best shots potentially are in the AFC, which doesn't

940
00:44:48,120 --> 00:44:50,279
Speaker 2: do me too much good, and then I'm running with

941
00:44:50,360 --> 00:44:54,439
Speaker 2: Detroit and Minnesota maybe, and at that point I'd rather

942
00:44:54,600 --> 00:44:57,080
Speaker 2: just get the eight to one, nine to one and

943
00:44:57,120 --> 00:44:59,719
Speaker 2: then the thirty to one or so. I think it's

944
00:44:59,760 --> 00:45:03,319
Speaker 2: probably just the easier way to attack it, because even

945
00:45:03,360 --> 00:45:05,560
Speaker 2: with the plus one ninety, I just don't feel like

946
00:45:05,600 --> 00:45:08,759
Speaker 2: I'm getting enough teams that can even get up into

947
00:45:08,800 --> 00:45:11,560
Speaker 2: that zone to make the value worth it. So and

948
00:45:11,600 --> 00:45:12,880
Speaker 2: there's just too many teams at the top of the

949
00:45:13,000 --> 00:45:16,799
Speaker 2: draft too, So that is my thought process as well.

950
00:45:16,840 --> 00:45:19,640
Speaker 2: But I do think getting some of those teams now

951
00:45:19,760 --> 00:45:22,960
Speaker 2: before they get some of these moves off, Like I

952
00:45:23,000 --> 00:45:26,160
Speaker 2: do think the thirty to one Minnesotas and things of

953
00:45:26,160 --> 00:45:29,160
Speaker 2: that nature is worth looking at because I just don't

954
00:45:29,200 --> 00:45:32,040
Speaker 2: think they can be done based off of what happened

955
00:45:32,120 --> 00:45:34,880
Speaker 2: last year. So you know we talked about kids questions.

956
00:45:34,920 --> 00:45:36,759
Speaker 1: Well, yeah, I got a qock question for so we

957
00:45:36,840 --> 00:45:38,879
Speaker 1: mentioned there's only like five teams right now, they're twelve

958
00:45:38,920 --> 00:45:40,560
Speaker 1: to one or shorter. I know you've gone back and

959
00:45:40,600 --> 00:45:42,759
Speaker 1: look at it, like, what is the general how many

960
00:45:42,760 --> 00:45:45,160
Speaker 1: teams on average are usually in that twelve to one range?

961
00:45:45,200 --> 00:45:47,080
Speaker 1: Is it always five or less? I feel like it's

962
00:45:47,120 --> 00:45:48,520
Speaker 1: usually a few more than that, right.

963
00:45:48,760 --> 00:45:53,359
Speaker 2: It's usually in the like six issh range. Oh okay, yeah,

964
00:45:53,640 --> 00:45:56,399
Speaker 2: I don't think it's much more than that. I think

965
00:45:56,440 --> 00:46:00,480
Speaker 2: the biggest thing is teams tend to move into that

966
00:46:00,600 --> 00:46:02,360
Speaker 2: range later. Like I know a bunch of people that

967
00:46:02,400 --> 00:46:05,200
Speaker 2: got affilly at like eighteen to one, but by the

968
00:46:05,200 --> 00:46:07,680
Speaker 2: time we got to the season, the hype had turned

969
00:46:07,719 --> 00:46:09,840
Speaker 2: and they were twelve to one. That's where they closed.

970
00:46:10,239 --> 00:46:16,400
Speaker 2: So I do think San Francisco and like if Cincinnati,

971
00:46:16,880 --> 00:46:21,200
Speaker 2: Washington or Green Bay has some addition, there's a very

972
00:46:21,440 --> 00:46:24,560
Speaker 2: good chance they will fall into that zone. I think.

973
00:46:24,560 --> 00:46:27,720
Speaker 2: Other than that, you've got your five or six teams,

974
00:46:28,280 --> 00:46:28,640
Speaker 2: And I'm just.

975
00:46:28,600 --> 00:46:30,479
Speaker 1: Gonna shout a team that I think is really good.

976
00:46:30,520 --> 00:46:32,799
Speaker 1: I thought they were really good last year. I don't

977
00:46:32,800 --> 00:46:34,560
Speaker 1: even know exactly what they'd have to do. But I

978
00:46:34,600 --> 00:46:36,680
Speaker 1: feel like they're They're not as far off as people

979
00:46:36,719 --> 00:46:40,960
Speaker 1: think out of Tampa Bay Buccaneers. You know, they like

980
00:46:41,040 --> 00:46:45,000
Speaker 1: they Baker Mayfield now has done it with two different coordinators.

981
00:46:45,040 --> 00:46:46,400
Speaker 1: You know, over the last two years, he keeps he

982
00:46:46,480 --> 00:46:48,680
Speaker 1: keeps getting better and better in this offense they got,

983
00:46:48,719 --> 00:46:51,600
Speaker 1: They got a great offense and the defense still has pieces.

984
00:46:52,280 --> 00:46:55,120
Speaker 1: So you know, if they make a move or two

985
00:46:55,239 --> 00:46:57,400
Speaker 1: or just get you know, a rookie or two that

986
00:46:57,560 --> 00:47:00,640
Speaker 1: on defense, who you know, levels them up Like I don't.

987
00:47:01,880 --> 00:47:03,759
Speaker 1: I don't know if the market would respect them, but

988
00:47:03,760 --> 00:47:05,160
Speaker 1: they're just I'm just gonna put it this way. This

989
00:47:05,160 --> 00:47:07,920
Speaker 1: is their team that I think is going to be underrated.

990
00:47:08,280 --> 00:47:10,920
Speaker 1: And I wouldn't have been surprised if they hadn't got

991
00:47:11,000 --> 00:47:13,399
Speaker 1: upset by Washington, if they had gotten a lot deeper

992
00:47:13,400 --> 00:47:16,320
Speaker 1: into the playoffs. It's just the nature of the NFC.

993
00:47:16,440 --> 00:47:18,280
Speaker 1: It is kind of random like that. But I wouldn't

994
00:47:18,280 --> 00:47:20,279
Speaker 1: sleep on a team like like the Buccaneers, at least

995
00:47:20,280 --> 00:47:21,879
Speaker 1: I'm not going to sleep on them. I think they

996
00:47:22,040 --> 00:47:25,240
Speaker 1: I think they're pretty good. That offense is just ridiculous.

997
00:47:24,880 --> 00:47:27,040
Speaker 2: And they also did something I didn't think they could

998
00:47:27,040 --> 00:47:29,239
Speaker 2: do which gives me more confidence in the future, which

999
00:47:29,280 --> 00:47:33,880
Speaker 2: is they really replaced Chris Godwin after the injury decently well, Like,

1000
00:47:34,200 --> 00:47:37,680
Speaker 2: I really thought that that injury was going to decimate

1001
00:47:37,840 --> 00:47:40,640
Speaker 2: what was of their offense and the confidence and the

1002
00:47:40,680 --> 00:47:43,520
Speaker 2: swagger and the way Baker played, and it didn't really

1003
00:47:43,520 --> 00:47:46,640
Speaker 2: have that impact. So assuming he I mean, he's great,

1004
00:47:46,840 --> 00:47:48,919
Speaker 2: and I want to just say that, and that's why

1005
00:47:48,920 --> 00:47:51,200
Speaker 2: I thought the impact would be larger. But it makes

1006
00:47:51,200 --> 00:47:53,719
Speaker 2: me believe in whatever they're going to do next. I'm

1007
00:47:53,760 --> 00:47:55,279
Speaker 2: not the biggest Todd Bowles.

1008
00:47:55,000 --> 00:47:58,680
Speaker 1: Guy, but if he could just like if he just

1009
00:47:58,760 --> 00:48:01,879
Speaker 1: hesalize the guys. Correct, you mentioned you asked me, who's

1010
00:48:01,920 --> 00:48:03,360
Speaker 1: the next? Who's the sake On Barkley?

1011
00:48:03,480 --> 00:48:03,719
Speaker 2: Sure?

1012
00:48:03,760 --> 00:48:07,200
Speaker 1: Who you can add Bucky Irving? Who's the next? Like

1013
00:48:07,280 --> 00:48:10,000
Speaker 1: sake On Barkley and all the metrics, right, we're quoting

1014
00:48:10,040 --> 00:48:12,319
Speaker 1: all postseason. It's like you got Segue Barkley and then

1015
00:48:12,320 --> 00:48:14,439
Speaker 1: you got Buckiers. So I'm just a team to watch

1016
00:48:14,600 --> 00:48:16,680
Speaker 1: thrown it out there. You know, probably a long shot,

1017
00:48:16,800 --> 00:48:18,680
Speaker 1: doesn't really fit the twelve to one thing, but I

1018
00:48:18,719 --> 00:48:20,800
Speaker 1: just wonder if they make some some moves or something.

1019
00:48:21,200 --> 00:48:23,279
Speaker 1: I could see them jumping up a little bit.

1020
00:48:23,320 --> 00:48:25,319
Speaker 2: So just a team on the other one I thought

1021
00:48:25,360 --> 00:48:26,879
Speaker 2: was interesting and then we can get out of here.

1022
00:48:26,880 --> 00:48:29,400
Speaker 2: To me is just the conversation around Houston. So there

1023
00:48:29,480 --> 00:48:32,359
Speaker 2: was so much hype last year with Houston, like they

1024
00:48:32,360 --> 00:48:35,000
Speaker 2: made all those moves. They went down to like fifteen

1025
00:48:35,040 --> 00:48:38,000
Speaker 2: to one from like two hundred to one the year before.

1026
00:48:38,280 --> 00:48:40,520
Speaker 2: So they end up closing last year at like fourteen

1027
00:48:40,560 --> 00:48:43,440
Speaker 2: to one range. They're twenty eight to thirty to one now.

1028
00:48:43,480 --> 00:48:45,880
Speaker 2: So like if you believed in Houston last year and

1029
00:48:45,920 --> 00:48:48,520
Speaker 2: you look at that division, to me, that's a little

1030
00:48:48,600 --> 00:48:52,600
Speaker 2: long for the talent on the roster, the injuries that

1031
00:48:52,600 --> 00:48:55,360
Speaker 2: they had, and the potential to even add some players

1032
00:48:55,400 --> 00:48:57,719
Speaker 2: to that mix. So I think Houston just from a

1033
00:48:58,200 --> 00:48:59,960
Speaker 2: oh let's look at last year's odds, look at the

1034
00:49:00,040 --> 00:49:02,640
Speaker 2: issuers odds and kind of look at the roster. It's

1035
00:49:02,680 --> 00:49:04,120
Speaker 2: a little intriguing, that's all.

1036
00:49:04,560 --> 00:49:06,400
Speaker 1: It still looks like the worst division of football. So

1037
00:49:06,640 --> 00:49:08,759
Speaker 1: somebody's gonna be a long shot in that division could

1038
00:49:08,760 --> 00:49:12,319
Speaker 1: get interesting. I mean, Tennessee gets a quarterback who knows, uh,

1039
00:49:12,760 --> 00:49:16,080
Speaker 1: you know, if Anthony Richardson remembers how to throw a football,

1040
00:49:16,600 --> 00:49:19,000
Speaker 1: you know, just that division is another one I think

1041
00:49:19,000 --> 00:49:20,839
Speaker 1: to watch, but again it's just when you come back

1042
00:49:20,840 --> 00:49:23,200
Speaker 1: to the AFC, it's always like, ah, man, we got

1043
00:49:23,200 --> 00:49:25,680
Speaker 1: to deal with the Bengals and the Chiefs, So what now?

1044
00:49:25,760 --> 00:49:27,680
Speaker 1: But yeah, totally agree.

1045
00:49:28,200 --> 00:49:31,040
Speaker 2: All right, Well, that is episode number one of the

1046
00:49:31,160 --> 00:49:34,360
Speaker 2: NFL Draft, NFL offseason. We're going to be back, tons

1047
00:49:34,360 --> 00:49:36,239
Speaker 2: and tons of content to do. I can't wait for

1048
00:49:36,320 --> 00:49:38,600
Speaker 2: all these markets to pop up. But that'll do it

1049
00:49:38,640 --> 00:49:41,000
Speaker 2: for the Action Network podcast for some NFL drafts and

1050
00:49:41,040 --> 00:49:44,600
Speaker 2: offseason talk. Don't forget to download the free, award winning

1051
00:49:44,760 --> 00:49:47,200
Speaker 2: Action Network app to see more from all our Action

1052
00:49:47,239 --> 00:49:50,560
Speaker 2: Network contributors. Plus you can track your own picks. Also

1053
00:49:51,040 --> 00:49:53,360
Speaker 2: check out the Action Network discord server to chop it

1054
00:49:53,400 --> 00:49:55,760
Speaker 2: up with experts and fellow gamblers for not just NFL,

1055
00:49:56,160 --> 00:49:59,560
Speaker 2: NBA college hoops and also during live events too. There's

1056
00:49:59,600 --> 00:50:02,280
Speaker 2: a link to join in the description of the pod. Plus,

1057
00:50:02,440 --> 00:50:04,200
Speaker 2: if you want to tell any of the bets given

1058
00:50:04,239 --> 00:50:07,200
Speaker 2: out an Action Networks family of podcasts, be sure to

1059
00:50:07,280 --> 00:50:10,640
Speaker 2: check out Actionnework dot com slash bet now for quick

1060
00:50:10,640 --> 00:50:14,879
Speaker 2: slip links that let you tail instantly when availed. All right,

1061
00:50:15,120 --> 00:50:23,920
Speaker 2: see a letter guys enjoy.

1062
00:50:26,280 --> 00:50:29,719
Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

1063
00:50:30,160 --> 00:50:33,120
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1064
00:50:33,280 --> 00:50:35,880
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1065
00:50:35,960 --> 00:50:36,760
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