WEBVTT - Musk Pledges to Remain Trump Adviser After Washington Exit 0:00:02.520 --> 0:00:07.000 Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. 0:00:08.920 --> 0:00:13.240 This is Bloomberg business Week Daily reporting from the magazine 0:00:13.240 --> 0:00:17.840 that helps global leaders stay ahead with insight on the people, companies, 0:00:17.880 --> 0:00:22.760 and trends shaping today's complex economy, plus global business, finance 0:00:22.800 --> 0:00:26.120 and tech news as it happens. The Bloomberg Business Week 0:00:26.239 --> 0:00:31.720 Daily Podcast with Carol Masser and Tim Steneveek on Bloomberg Radio. 0:00:32.159 --> 0:00:34.120 A lot to get to. We want to bring in 0:00:34.120 --> 0:00:37.080 Max Chafkin, senior reporter at Bloomberg business Week, co host 0:00:37.080 --> 0:00:39.920 of the Everybody's Business and Elon In podcast so much more, 0:00:40.000 --> 0:00:42.599 a very close follower of all things Elon. You've been 0:00:42.640 --> 0:00:46.920 listening along with us. Elon kind of not leaving though, no, 0:00:47.200 --> 0:00:47.760 not leaving. 0:00:47.880 --> 0:00:50.840 And you know, I think those of us who follow 0:00:50.920 --> 0:00:53.760 us closely kind of expected this to some extent. I mean, 0:00:53.840 --> 0:00:56.920 Trump signaled it last night in his post on truth 0:00:56.960 --> 0:01:01.120 Social Also, you know, for all this talk of Elon 0:01:01.520 --> 0:01:05.240 getting pushed out or making his exit, we've seen those headlines. 0:01:06.360 --> 0:01:08.120 There have sure been a lot of events at the 0:01:08.120 --> 0:01:11.440 White House or at Trump related things over the last month. 0:01:11.920 --> 0:01:15.800 They brought up the presidential travel musk joining Trump on 0:01:15.840 --> 0:01:19.039 this tour in the middle East. We've also seen these 0:01:19.160 --> 0:01:22.920 kind of valedictory This isn't even the first valedictory kind 0:01:22.959 --> 0:01:26.080 of appearance. There was a cabinet meeting I believe last month. 0:01:26.760 --> 0:01:30.000 The thing is Trump needs Elon Musk. The Republicans need 0:01:30.040 --> 0:01:33.600 Elon Musk. He was the most the biggest donor to 0:01:33.800 --> 0:01:39.040 Republican candidates or Republican campaigns in the twenty twenty four cycle. 0:01:39.920 --> 0:01:42.720 They are certainly counting on him in the twenty twenty 0:01:42.720 --> 0:01:46.240 six cycle and having him on side, having him a 0:01:46.280 --> 0:01:49.640 part of this, having this show of unity is helpful 0:01:49.680 --> 0:01:53.240 to the president in helping to bring Republican members of 0:01:53.280 --> 0:01:56.000 Congress around to you know, to pass the big beautiful 0:01:56.000 --> 0:01:58.000 bill or anything else, you know. On the other hand, 0:01:58.120 --> 0:02:01.680 Musk also needs Trump. He for all the reasons that 0:02:01.960 --> 0:02:05.120 made him an enthusiastic supporter of Donald Trump. I mean, 0:02:05.160 --> 0:02:08.320 SpaceX is a large government contractor, Tesla is a highly 0:02:08.320 --> 0:02:11.880 regulated company. It goes on and on. Having this close 0:02:11.919 --> 0:02:14.560 relationship is very valuable. So I think it's in both 0:02:14.639 --> 0:02:17.840 their interests to keep this going. It is clear though 0:02:18.360 --> 0:02:21.400 that Elon Musk's kind of connection to Doge, and I 0:02:21.400 --> 0:02:25.960 think to a greater extent, the kind of prominence of Doge. 0:02:25.720 --> 0:02:28.680 The vision of Doge is this kind of Elon Musk 0:02:28.800 --> 0:02:34.000 driven maximalist for netic getting in there and breaking stuff 0:02:34.400 --> 0:02:36.639 that feels like it's sunsetting. 0:02:36.720 --> 0:02:38.520 And to be fair, there have been numbers put out 0:02:38.600 --> 0:02:41.119 by the administration and others about you know, I think 0:02:41.200 --> 0:02:44.120 Elon specifically said that he still expects to hit that 0:02:44.200 --> 0:02:46.120 I think a trillion dollars in cuts over the years 0:02:46.200 --> 0:02:50.320 or something, some large numbers. But the point is everybody's 0:02:50.320 --> 0:02:53.079 done a lot of reporting, including Bloomberg that really questions 0:02:53.080 --> 0:02:54.480 some of the numbers that have been out there and 0:02:54.480 --> 0:02:57.680 what ultimately they will achieve in terms of cuts. Yeah. 0:02:57.680 --> 0:02:59.320 Well, and even if you take what he said right, 0:02:59.360 --> 0:03:03.160 it's a trillion dollars over an undefined time period. A 0:03:03.520 --> 0:03:06.880 big difference from where Elon Musk was, you know during 0:03:06.880 --> 0:03:09.440 the campaign when when during an event with Howard Lutnik 0:03:09.520 --> 0:03:13.680 he said two trillion a year that was then downgraded 0:03:13.680 --> 0:03:16.720 to one trillion. And and so, you know, by his 0:03:16.760 --> 0:03:18.920 own admission, and I think anyone who. 0:03:18.919 --> 0:03:21.040 Was familiar with the working of the federal government. 0:03:20.760 --> 0:03:22.960 Could have told him this. There were experts certainly at 0:03:23.000 --> 0:03:24.760 the time saying this is going to be very hard 0:03:25.560 --> 0:03:28.600 you know that that was probably an unrealistic goal. Of course, 0:03:28.639 --> 0:03:31.240 Elon Musk is all about unrealistic goals, right, That's kind 0:03:31.280 --> 0:03:33.920 of his thing. He likes He even by his own account, 0:03:34.000 --> 0:03:37.720 you know, likes to set these audacious goals. You know, 0:03:37.760 --> 0:03:39.600 even if you fall short, even if you're a little late, 0:03:39.800 --> 0:03:40.560 it's still impressed. 0:03:40.720 --> 0:03:42.680 If you get a black guy for me five year seven. 0:03:43.480 --> 0:03:46.160 Yeah, he's going to argue that, you know, one hundred 0:03:46.160 --> 0:03:49.640 and sixty billion, which is the claimed figure, is significant. 0:03:49.840 --> 0:03:51.120 It's it's not a small number. 0:03:51.320 --> 0:03:53.520 It's just it's just so far off from where they 0:03:53.560 --> 0:03:55.840 were and when you look at you know, the deficit 0:03:55.920 --> 0:03:59.160 projections from even from this latest spending bill, right, it's 0:03:59.240 --> 0:04:00.000 not a huge number. 0:04:00.680 --> 0:04:03.760 And Musk even pointed out that he wants to focus 0:04:03.800 --> 0:04:05.480 more on his businesses. I mean, if you're looking at 0:04:05.520 --> 0:04:08.720 Tesla's stock down close to thirteen percent a year to date. 0:04:08.800 --> 0:04:11.360 But Trump said himself that Musk will be back and forth. 0:04:11.400 --> 0:04:14.400 So how would shareholders and investors in his companies feel 0:04:14.440 --> 0:04:14.880 about this? 0:04:15.080 --> 0:04:17.320 He's what Elon Musk is walking a line here, and 0:04:17.680 --> 0:04:21.720 it's even there's even sort of some kind of contradictions 0:04:21.720 --> 0:04:23.719 within the movements of the share price, because of course, 0:04:24.160 --> 0:04:27.599 the stock went crazy up after Trump was elected. The 0:04:27.640 --> 0:04:30.240 story we heard back then was, well, the stock is 0:04:30.279 --> 0:04:32.600 going up because Elon Musk is going to have all 0:04:32.640 --> 0:04:34.839 this access, and then we reached a point where the 0:04:34.839 --> 0:04:37.320 stock went up started trading up because Elon Musk said 0:04:37.360 --> 0:04:40.320 he was stepping away. Now I think the truth is 0:04:40.600 --> 0:04:44.880 Tesla investors are very much on board with pretty much 0:04:44.920 --> 0:04:48.240 whatever Elon Musk says. They believe that this is a 0:04:48.279 --> 0:04:51.720 shareholder base that is different from most publicly traded companies. 0:04:51.880 --> 0:04:55.000 There is a level of belief in the CEO that 0:04:55.320 --> 0:04:59.360 is greater than a normal company. They are trusting that 0:04:59.400 --> 0:05:03.320 Elon Musk can walk a line that he can simultaneously 0:05:03.360 --> 0:05:05.960 focus on all these companies. He's bringing five companies at 0:05:06.000 --> 0:05:08.920 the same time while maintaining his role as we heard 0:05:08.960 --> 0:05:10.480 just now as an advisor. 0:05:10.520 --> 0:05:12.200 I mean, there was a little bit of a shift there. 0:05:12.240 --> 0:05:14.760 You heard a question about is he going to be 0:05:14.880 --> 0:05:17.080 involved twenty four to seven with sum It was a 0:05:17.080 --> 0:05:19.120 claim that Elon Musk made on Twitter just. 0:05:19.040 --> 0:05:21.480 A few days ago. Elon Musk didn't. 0:05:21.279 --> 0:05:23.480 Respond to that directly, but he did say I will 0:05:23.520 --> 0:05:26.680 continue to be an advisor and a friend. I hear that, 0:05:27.000 --> 0:05:30.000 and I think this is you know, this relationship as 0:05:30.000 --> 0:05:31.839 we you know, as we heard from the President and 0:05:31.880 --> 0:05:33.960 from Elon Musk, it will continue. 0:05:34.600 --> 0:05:37.280 Really fascinating stuff. Max, thank you so much, really appreciate 0:05:37.400 --> 0:05:39.960 Max Chaffkins, Senior reporter at Bloomberg business Week, co host 0:05:40.480 --> 0:05:43.480 of the Everybody's Business and Elon Inc. Podcast. Check it 0:05:43.520 --> 0:05:46.479 out because they really do follow the day to day 0:05:46.720 --> 0:05:48.720 gyrations of all things Elon. 0:05:49.200 --> 0:05:53.160 You're listening to the Bloomberg business Weekdaily podcast. Catch us 0:05:53.240 --> 0:05:56.679 live weekday afternoons from two to five pm Eastern. Listen 0:05:56.720 --> 0:06:00.440 on Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business or 0:06:00.680 --> 0:06:02.880 watch us live on YouTube. 0:06:03.600 --> 0:06:07.480 We did hear from President Trump just from the Oval Office. 0:06:07.520 --> 0:06:10.080 He did say he expected to speak to Chinese President 0:06:10.279 --> 0:06:14.719 Xi ximping after accusing China of violating in agreement with 0:06:14.800 --> 0:06:17.479 the United States to East tariff. So we did see 0:06:17.720 --> 0:06:19.919 kind of a ratcheting up of tensions between the world's 0:06:19.960 --> 0:06:23.080 two largest economies that was initially putting pressure on some 0:06:23.120 --> 0:06:25.440 of the trade. But it didn't seem that some of 0:06:25.480 --> 0:06:27.440 that eased as we did hear a comment out of 0:06:27.480 --> 0:06:30.320 the White House saying that he expected to actually speak 0:06:30.440 --> 0:06:33.520 to the Chinese president. But I have to say geopolitically, 0:06:34.040 --> 0:06:37.200 so much going on. We've got the strained and evolving 0:06:37.279 --> 0:06:40.960 US China relationship, the Russia Ukraine War, how that may end, 0:06:41.440 --> 0:06:43.960 when it will end, the Middle East, Israel and Hamas, 0:06:44.080 --> 0:06:47.919 Greenland and more. Everyone is kind of looking at maybe 0:06:47.960 --> 0:06:50.560 what is the new global world order going forward? And 0:06:50.640 --> 0:06:52.920 eighty years later, it's hard not to wonder if the 0:06:52.920 --> 0:06:55.960 world has really kind of headed toward another Yaulta conference 0:06:56.040 --> 0:06:58.520 and a carving up of our world. Our next guest 0:06:58.600 --> 0:07:02.000 actually wrote about it Fornerfairs magazine that caught our attention. 0:07:02.440 --> 0:07:04.800 It's great to have with us. Monica Tuft. She's professor 0:07:04.839 --> 0:07:07.799 of International Politics at the Fletcher School at Tufts University. 0:07:07.839 --> 0:07:12.520 She's taught at Oxford University's Blovotnik School of Government, Harvard 0:07:12.680 --> 0:07:16.200 University's jfk School of Government, and she spent four years 0:07:16.240 --> 0:07:19.200 in the US Army as a Russian linguist. And she 0:07:19.320 --> 0:07:22.920 joins us from Medford, Massachusetts. Monica, great to have you 0:07:22.960 --> 0:07:23.880 here with us. How are you. 0:07:24.840 --> 0:07:26.200 I'm terrific. Thanks for having me. 0:07:26.280 --> 0:07:28.440 Carol and Jess, Well, it's good to have you here. 0:07:28.640 --> 0:07:33.400 There's so much coming at us domestically, but also continually geopolitically. 0:07:33.400 --> 0:07:36.840 The President just talking about various parts of the world, 0:07:36.880 --> 0:07:40.200 whether it's Russia, Ukraine, whether it's about China and trade 0:07:40.760 --> 0:07:43.440 just from the Oval Office. Is the world about to 0:07:43.480 --> 0:07:45.680 be carved up in a new way, just like we 0:07:45.720 --> 0:07:46.880 saw after World War Two? 0:07:49.000 --> 0:07:51.680 It's a question still. I think we have to watch it. 0:07:51.720 --> 0:07:54.360 I did write this piece, and it's a speculative piece 0:07:54.480 --> 0:07:57.240 in the sense of using history basically, of looking at 0:07:58.000 --> 0:08:00.720 prior history to try to understand and what's happening. We 0:08:00.840 --> 0:08:02.840 do seem to be in a liminal moment right now 0:08:03.120 --> 0:08:06.440 where you have leaders who are talking about expansive aims. 0:08:06.480 --> 0:08:09.360 And when I talk about expansive aims, it's not only economically, 0:08:09.960 --> 0:08:12.560 but it's politically. So you have President Trump coming in 0:08:12.640 --> 0:08:15.480 and talking about Greenland, maybe it would be nicely Greenland 0:08:15.520 --> 0:08:17.920 to be part of the United States Canada and then 0:08:17.960 --> 0:08:21.800 taking control over the Panama Canal. And then you have 0:08:22.640 --> 0:08:26.400 Russian President Vladimir Putin actually going in and taking Crimea 0:08:26.440 --> 0:08:29.120 and then four other provinces. And then of course we 0:08:29.200 --> 0:08:33.679 know China's president she would love to reacquire Taiwan, and 0:08:33.720 --> 0:08:35.959 they seem to be in a position right now politically 0:08:36.520 --> 0:08:38.240 to be able to talk about this and you know, 0:08:38.280 --> 0:08:42.480 this kind of language of expanding their nations geographically, and 0:08:42.559 --> 0:08:44.920 each of them seems to have sort of ideas that 0:08:44.960 --> 0:08:48.319 this is somewhat desirable. So the question is whether they 0:08:48.360 --> 0:08:51.680 succeed right Putin is not succeeding right now. Taiwan has 0:08:51.760 --> 0:08:53.480 not made a I mean, China has not made a 0:08:53.480 --> 0:08:57.280 play for Taiwan. And President Trump it's not clear that 0:08:57.360 --> 0:09:01.040 he has the capacity or the full design to take 0:09:01.080 --> 0:09:03.440 great Land Canada, so it's a question mark. 0:09:03.520 --> 0:09:03.800 Still. 0:09:03.960 --> 0:09:09.040 Well, this concept of professor toft of spears of influence 0:09:09.120 --> 0:09:11.800 or spear of influence not a new one. It's been around, 0:09:12.280 --> 0:09:15.480 they change, right, So I don't know if we think 0:09:15.520 --> 0:09:17.959 about a new carving up, is it a good thing 0:09:18.080 --> 0:09:19.720 or a bad thing or tbd. 0:09:21.200 --> 0:09:24.040 I think it depends upon your perspective. So for the 0:09:24.120 --> 0:09:26.880 states that are managed to in the statesmen that manage 0:09:26.960 --> 0:09:29.839 to establish a new sphere of influence, it. 0:09:29.800 --> 0:09:30.640 Could be a good thing. 0:09:31.040 --> 0:09:32.920 But for the states that are sort of gobbled up 0:09:32.920 --> 0:09:35.280 within that sphere, it's not such a great thing because 0:09:35.320 --> 0:09:38.760 basically those larger countries, what they're doing is they're using 0:09:38.800 --> 0:09:42.800 their advantages in military power, military might, economic leverage, and 0:09:42.840 --> 0:09:47.040 diplomacy right to secure those spheres of influence, get control 0:09:47.080 --> 0:09:51.080 of those geographic areas in order to exert more control economically, 0:09:51.280 --> 0:09:56.080 militarily without necessarily exercising formal sovereignty. And the question is 0:09:56.080 --> 0:09:58.520 is over time, are they benign so do they do 0:09:58.679 --> 0:10:01.360 good right? Will they help develop up the countries that 0:10:01.360 --> 0:10:04.400 they sort of move into, or are they maligned? 0:10:04.559 --> 0:10:07.520 They are they repressive? Generally speaking? 0:10:07.600 --> 0:10:09.880 When we were living in the world between nineteen forty 0:10:09.920 --> 0:10:12.880 five and let's say nineteen ninety one, during the Cold 0:10:12.920 --> 0:10:16.160 War period, we had the liberal West right and that 0:10:16.280 --> 0:10:19.160 was one block, and that was our sphere with Western Europe, 0:10:19.200 --> 0:10:22.040 and then you had this sort of Warsaw Pact, and 0:10:22.120 --> 0:10:25.880 within the Warsaw Pact that was considered the Soviet Union sphere, 0:10:26.240 --> 0:10:28.520 and it didn't go so well for the East Europeans, 0:10:28.640 --> 0:10:32.079 which is why today or in the post nineteen ninety period, 0:10:32.120 --> 0:10:35.239 the post Cold War period, many of those Eastern European 0:10:35.360 --> 0:10:38.440 countries try to get into the Western side, right, into 0:10:38.480 --> 0:10:42.439 the West sphere, and the United States was the great stabilizer. 0:10:42.880 --> 0:10:45.080 What's kind of tossed this all up in the air 0:10:45.120 --> 0:10:47.520 at this point is two things. The first factor is 0:10:47.559 --> 0:10:52.040 Russian President Vladimir Putin going into Ukraine and actually using 0:10:52.080 --> 0:10:55.200 force to do that. And then secondarily you now have 0:10:55.280 --> 0:10:59.720 a US president talking in these expansive terms about possibly 0:11:00.040 --> 0:11:05.200 expanding United States territory. So so it does seem to 0:11:05.240 --> 0:11:09.040 be a situation where there is change, uh, you know, 0:11:09.080 --> 0:11:12.640 afloat uh. And and whether it's a good or bad thing, 0:11:12.840 --> 0:11:15.440 it's a it's I think we need to suspend judgment. 0:11:15.480 --> 0:11:17.520 But I will tell you it tends not to be 0:11:17.640 --> 0:11:19.960 a good thing. In fact, I could have you know, 0:11:20.280 --> 0:11:24.480 titled the piece spheares of war, right, because what happens 0:11:24.559 --> 0:11:27.000 is you get up into those buffer areas between where 0:11:27.000 --> 0:11:30.160 the different spheres rub up against one another, and who 0:11:30.160 --> 0:11:31.440 gets to control what part? 0:11:31.520 --> 0:11:34.040 How deep do you go into each other's sphere of influence? 0:11:34.240 --> 0:11:35.959 How does China play into this? 0:11:37.720 --> 0:11:39.959 It's a great question. And the thing is is, if 0:11:39.960 --> 0:11:43.240 you think about President She, he's very conservative in his movements. 0:11:43.320 --> 0:11:43.520 Right. 0:11:43.840 --> 0:11:47.280 Basically, the President She wants to keep the Chinese economy, 0:11:47.679 --> 0:11:50.079 economy humming, right, so he has to keep the middle 0:11:50.080 --> 0:11:53.640 class happy, keep the jobs, make sure that the real 0:11:53.720 --> 0:11:56.720 estate market doesn't collapse. And so for him, the economy 0:11:56.800 --> 0:11:59.480 is everything, because it's the legitimacy in which the Communist 0:11:59.559 --> 0:12:02.880 Party and President She built his power. On the other hand, 0:12:03.000 --> 0:12:05.920 you have this thing looming in the background, which is nationalism. 0:12:06.040 --> 0:12:09.560 And Chinese, just like the Americans, there's nationalism and they 0:12:09.600 --> 0:12:13.120 believe that Taiwan is part of Chinese territory. And when 0:12:13.120 --> 0:12:16.960 you've got another major power of the United States supporting Taiwan, 0:12:17.080 --> 0:12:20.959 which the Chinese see is theirs, that leads to tensions. 0:12:21.320 --> 0:12:23.480 And so the Chinese, on the one hand, under President 0:12:23.559 --> 0:12:27.600 She recognized that war is very costly. We understand that 0:12:27.640 --> 0:12:30.600 war can be quite costly. Yet on the other hand, 0:12:30.600 --> 0:12:34.319 there's these impulses that they need to expand economically. Oh 0:12:34.400 --> 0:12:37.760 and by the way, politically national In terms of nationalism, 0:12:38.040 --> 0:12:41.439 it would be nice to reacquire some territories that they 0:12:41.480 --> 0:12:42.880 see as rightfully their own. 0:12:43.400 --> 0:12:45.760 We are talking with Monica Toft. She's professor of International 0:12:45.800 --> 0:12:48.720 politics at the Fletcher School at Tufts University. We're talking 0:12:48.760 --> 0:12:52.160 about an article that she has written for Foreign Affairs 0:12:52.280 --> 0:12:56.680 entitled the Return of Spheres of Influence. Monica, I want 0:12:56.679 --> 0:12:58.640 to Professor Toft, I want to relate it to the 0:12:58.640 --> 0:13:02.959 Bloomberg audience and I think about every story, there is 0:13:03.240 --> 0:13:05.600 I feel like a money component to it, right, a 0:13:05.640 --> 0:13:09.400 market component, economic component. So if indeed we are seeing 0:13:09.480 --> 0:13:12.160 up a new carving up and as you said, you know, 0:13:12.760 --> 0:13:14.880 it depends on kind of how it gets carved up. 0:13:14.960 --> 0:13:18.160 But should we assume that there are implications then for 0:13:18.280 --> 0:13:21.520 financial markets, for economies. And I do think about this 0:13:21.800 --> 0:13:26.080 US exceptionalism where it seems to be waning. We're talking 0:13:26.120 --> 0:13:29.400 about that a lot more today than at the beginning 0:13:29.440 --> 0:13:31.800 of the year January first, when we talked about US 0:13:31.880 --> 0:13:35.440 exceptionalism rating supreme and that applied to financial markets. 0:13:36.960 --> 0:13:37.880 Yeah, I mean it does. 0:13:38.200 --> 0:13:41.280 It does matter quite a bit for the economy and 0:13:41.320 --> 0:13:45.360 for trade and few exceptionalism. And I think what's happening 0:13:45.679 --> 0:13:49.000 the under the Trump administration is they're sort of tossing 0:13:49.000 --> 0:13:50.680 that exceptionalism further up. 0:13:50.600 --> 0:13:51.040 In the air. 0:13:51.200 --> 0:13:55.160 Right, So you know, we do have sort of now 0:13:55.240 --> 0:13:59.560 competing powers. China has risen economically, and what's so interesting 0:13:59.600 --> 0:14:02.800 about the Chinese case is the United States helped that 0:14:02.840 --> 0:14:05.520 through the nineteen nineties and early two thousands until all 0:14:05.520 --> 0:14:08.000 of a sudden we have the crisis in two thousand 0:14:08.040 --> 0:14:11.040 and eight and China and actually both China. 0:14:10.840 --> 0:14:13.400 Under She and Russian President. 0:14:13.000 --> 0:14:15.840 Putin look at that two thousand and eight crisis and 0:14:15.880 --> 0:14:19.600 think maybe that Western capitalism isn't so great, maybe the 0:14:19.640 --> 0:14:22.160 American dollar isn't as secure as we thought it was. 0:14:22.480 --> 0:14:24.359 And so they started, you started. 0:14:24.080 --> 0:14:26.440 Seeing sort of the decoupling and trying to sort of 0:14:26.520 --> 0:14:30.720 vary out and diversify their economies a little bit more so. 0:14:30.840 --> 0:14:34.720 Economics is absolutely critical to this story. 0:14:35.160 --> 0:14:37.880 But I think, you know, it's interesting. I'm now, you know, 0:14:38.040 --> 0:14:40.160 talking to people about political risk. It used to be 0:14:40.240 --> 0:14:44.160 geoeconomic risk, right, and now people are thinking, wow, politics 0:14:44.240 --> 0:14:46.280 really matter, And I'm thinking, of course they do. 0:14:46.560 --> 0:14:48.360 I'm a political scientist by training. 0:14:48.760 --> 0:14:52.800 But when you have leaders making major decisions about tariffs 0:14:52.840 --> 0:14:57.760 and trade and who the rival is, right, then you're 0:14:57.800 --> 0:14:59.960 going to have changes in the economic market. 0:15:00.080 --> 0:15:01.440 We'll leave a couple of minutes left. I want to 0:15:01.440 --> 0:15:04.560 ask you if, indeed, when we see some end to 0:15:04.600 --> 0:15:09.960 the Russia Ukraine war, if Ukraine has to give back 0:15:10.360 --> 0:15:13.400 or let go of some territory, and that is certainly 0:15:13.400 --> 0:15:17.760 seen as another win in terms of President Putin expanding 0:15:17.800 --> 0:15:23.560 his territory again after that initial annexation of Crimea. That 0:15:24.040 --> 0:15:26.640 sends a very big message right to the world in 0:15:26.760 --> 0:15:30.080 terms of great powers being able to take land. 0:15:31.240 --> 0:15:35.000 Yes, what it does is it validates the use of force, right, 0:15:35.080 --> 0:15:38.880 So it basically says, if you use force, then potentially 0:15:38.920 --> 0:15:41.040 you're going to be able to keep the territory that you. 0:15:41.360 --> 0:15:43.680 Have actually conquested and now occupy. 0:15:44.720 --> 0:15:46.720 But you know what I want to do is I'd 0:15:46.760 --> 0:15:49.280 love for the audience to think about sort of extending 0:15:49.320 --> 0:15:50.359 their time horizons. 0:15:50.440 --> 0:15:52.160 So in the shorter term of the. 0:15:52.160 --> 0:15:54.960 Medium term, it may be the case that Ukraine may 0:15:55.000 --> 0:15:59.280 have to modify some of its territorial you know construct 0:15:59.320 --> 0:16:01.600 right that the nature and the size of the state. 0:16:02.120 --> 0:16:04.120 But over the longer term, you know, Putin is not 0:16:04.200 --> 0:16:05.960 going to be in power the whole time. You may 0:16:05.960 --> 0:16:09.520 not have such sort of a hypernationalist in power, and 0:16:09.680 --> 0:16:13.240 Ukraine may be able to renegotiate or get that territory back, 0:16:13.560 --> 0:16:16.320 maybe by having a referendum down the road and having 0:16:16.360 --> 0:16:20.000 some you know, proper electoral processes that allow the Crimeans 0:16:20.000 --> 0:16:23.200 and then those four provinces the folks there. So it 0:16:23.240 --> 0:16:25.880 doesn't necessarily have to be seen as a done deal. 0:16:26.240 --> 0:16:28.280 Yes, in the moment, and would be quite painful. 0:16:28.320 --> 0:16:31.160 Again, I was talking about Chinese nationalism right, Ukrainians and 0:16:31.280 --> 0:16:34.720 nationalists right, This is going to be very painful right 0:16:34.800 --> 0:16:38.520 for the country. So yes, you know, Ukraine could be 0:16:38.600 --> 0:16:40.960 left in a rump state, but what I'd say is 0:16:41.000 --> 0:16:43.240 over the longer term they may be able. 0:16:43.000 --> 0:16:46.560 To get that territory back. It's happened before historically. 0:16:46.360 --> 0:16:49.640 So it's interesting. I mean political changes in governments, whether 0:16:49.680 --> 0:16:52.880 it's Russia, the United States, China. I mean, these things, 0:16:53.640 --> 0:16:56.920 as you say, kind of are going to impact things 0:16:56.960 --> 0:16:59.480 more longer term. Monica, Thank you so much. Monica Talk, 0:16:59.480 --> 0:17:02.960 Professor National Politics at the Fletcher School at Tufts University, 0:17:03.080 --> 0:17:06.080 joining us from Medford, Massachusetts. 0:17:06.840 --> 0:17:10.720 This is the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast. Listen live 0:17:10.800 --> 0:17:14.040 each weekday starting at two pm Eastern on applecar Play 0:17:14.119 --> 0:17:16.760 and the Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You 0:17:16.800 --> 0:17:20.000 can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship 0:17:20.040 --> 0:17:23.080 New York station, Just Say Alexa played Bloomberg Time. 0:17:23.119 --> 0:17:26.280 Heky everybody just about eighteen minutes, coming up on the 0:17:26.359 --> 0:17:28.800 close on this Friday, wrapping up the day and the 0:17:28.840 --> 0:17:31.480 trading week overall. Just heard from Bill and Charlie. We're 0:17:31.480 --> 0:17:34.000 definitely I said a rally, but I met earlier like 0:17:34.080 --> 0:17:36.080 rally off our lows, but we're still just down about 0:17:36.080 --> 0:17:38.240 two points on the S and P five hundred and 0:17:38.359 --> 0:17:40.560 just down about forty three on the NAWS DEAK one hundred, 0:17:40.600 --> 0:17:43.240 but much more positive than we were earlier in the session. 0:17:43.280 --> 0:17:44.879 That's right, and it looks like the S and P 0:17:44.920 --> 0:17:47.840 five hundreds still on course for its best May since 0:17:48.000 --> 0:17:50.680 nineteen ninety carousel. We'll see if that can hold through 0:17:50.680 --> 0:17:51.120 four PM. 0:17:51.240 --> 0:17:53.440 Thirty five years. That's a long time, all right, Let's 0:17:53.440 --> 0:17:56.080 get to it. Tyler Rosinlicht is with US portfolio manager, 0:17:56.160 --> 0:17:59.160 head of natural resource equities at the publicly held investment 0:17:59.200 --> 0:18:01.159 from Cohen and Steak years. He is here in our 0:18:01.200 --> 0:18:04.120 Bloomberg Interactor Broker studio. Keep in mind the firm has 0:18:04.160 --> 0:18:07.280 about eighty seven billion in assets under management. Tyler, you 0:18:07.320 --> 0:18:09.800 mentioned you reminded me it's been a while. Good to 0:18:09.880 --> 0:18:14.920 have you back. Just let's start broadly, big picture, your 0:18:14.920 --> 0:18:18.000 investment thesis and focus. Talk to us a little bit 0:18:18.040 --> 0:18:21.040 about it, especially against the backdrop of you know, every 0:18:21.119 --> 0:18:23.760 day we're following news out of Washington and what kind 0:18:23.760 --> 0:18:26.240 of impact that has in policy and ultimately industries and 0:18:26.240 --> 0:18:27.000 corporate earnings. 0:18:27.040 --> 0:18:28.680 Well, thanks so much for having me. I guess there's 0:18:28.760 --> 0:18:30.640 kind of two pieces that I can talk about. One 0:18:30.720 --> 0:18:33.360 is the infrastructure side and one is natural resource equities, 0:18:33.359 --> 0:18:35.840 and I think both of them are really well positioned today. 0:18:36.200 --> 0:18:38.240 You know, I'd start with infrastructure. You know, I think 0:18:38.240 --> 0:18:40.240 there's a lot of uncertainty out there, and every day 0:18:40.240 --> 0:18:42.120 we wake up to new news that's causing a lot 0:18:42.119 --> 0:18:42.680 of concern. 0:18:42.880 --> 0:18:43.040 Right. 0:18:43.080 --> 0:18:45.399 What we like about infrastructure is it's really predictable, you know. 0:18:45.440 --> 0:18:48.560 We think about it as a lower volatility downside protected 0:18:48.600 --> 0:18:50.920 asset class. It's the stuff that you have to pay 0:18:50.960 --> 0:18:54.080 for as a consumer. It's what helps make the economy run. 0:18:54.160 --> 0:18:56.719 So we've seen a lot of interest in infrastructure, and 0:18:56.760 --> 0:18:58.120 it's very sensible to us. 0:18:58.240 --> 0:19:02.040 You have a lot of energy companies in that fund specifically. 0:19:01.480 --> 0:19:05.400 So within infrastructure, it's just utilities and then pipeline companies. 0:19:05.400 --> 0:19:08.000 For us, it's really the present is truly the infrastructure, 0:19:08.040 --> 0:19:10.560 just the infrastructure. Now we have natural resource equities as well, 0:19:10.600 --> 0:19:13.560 which invests across the energy value chain, metals and mining 0:19:13.600 --> 0:19:16.800 and agribusiness. That's also seeing a lot of interesting things today, 0:19:16.840 --> 0:19:18.239 just given all the volatility that we have. 0:19:18.600 --> 0:19:20.760 So how do you read with everything going on with 0:19:20.800 --> 0:19:22.960 the economic data to the back and forth with the 0:19:23.040 --> 0:19:25.400 trade headlines. How do you use those types of stories 0:19:25.440 --> 0:19:28.639 to then try to figure out what the best investment 0:19:28.680 --> 0:19:29.320 thesis is. 0:19:29.760 --> 0:19:32.359 Yeah, let's start with infrastructure. So one of the unique 0:19:32.359 --> 0:19:34.320 things about it as an asset class is the risk 0:19:34.400 --> 0:19:36.720 that really keeps us up at night is regulatory risk 0:19:36.880 --> 0:19:39.639 and changes to regulation, changes to policy that can be 0:19:39.680 --> 0:19:42.920 on the national level. Are we going to potentially privatize Amtrak? 0:19:43.000 --> 0:19:45.520 What that could that mean for us as investors? Or 0:19:45.520 --> 0:19:48.200 on the more local level, so is the Utility Commission 0:19:48.280 --> 0:19:50.320 going to change the rules of the game or the 0:19:50.359 --> 0:19:53.280 returns for a local utility? So our focus a lot 0:19:53.320 --> 0:19:55.960 more nuclear are allow more nuclear, which we're really excited 0:19:55.960 --> 0:19:56.520 and bullish on. 0:19:56.640 --> 0:19:59.480 So seeing the President on some executive orders to wrap 0:19:59.560 --> 0:19:59.919 that up in the. 0:20:00.400 --> 0:20:02.399