WEBVTT - CDC Relaxes Mask Guidance for Vaccinated People

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm

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<v Speaker 1>pm Eastern Time on Bloomberg Radio or watch us on

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<v Speaker 1>YouTube search Bloomberg Global News. Just about an hour ago,

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<v Speaker 1>at crossed about the CDC to say, vaccinated people can

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<v Speaker 1>often dish, ditch, ditch, yeah, masks indoors. That is a

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<v Speaker 1>big deal and listen. This could potentially be a game

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<v Speaker 1>changer in terms of maybe how people think about getting

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<v Speaker 1>the vaccine because it does potentially significantly change your world,

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<v Speaker 1>and how do you go about it. Say that, hey,

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<v Speaker 1>there's a big point in getting the vaccine. I don't

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<v Speaker 1>have to wear this mask anymore. Well, let's get right

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<v Speaker 1>to it with a Dr Bill Moss, Professor Epidemiology at

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<v Speaker 1>the Johns Hopkins at Bloomberg School Public Health, also executive

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<v Speaker 1>director of the International Vaccine Access Center, joining us now

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<v Speaker 1>on the phone from Baltimore. The Bloomberg School of Public

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<v Speaker 1>Health is supported by Michael R. Bloomberg, founder of Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>LP and Bloomberg Philanthropies. Dr Moss, it's great to have

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<v Speaker 1>you with us, especially on a day when we learned

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<v Speaker 1>this striking news from the CDC. Uh, I'm I'm wondering

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<v Speaker 1>what your reaction was when you saw it. Yes, thanks

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<v Speaker 1>to him for thanks him for having me and uh,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, I think this is really big news. And uh,

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<v Speaker 1>Rochette Lonski, the director of the CDC, was talking updated

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<v Speaker 1>guidance ently, this is it. I think this is really important.

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<v Speaker 1>As Carol said, you can really help motivate people to

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<v Speaker 1>get back to it. It's not going to motivate everyone, um,

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<v Speaker 1>and we still have a ways to go in improving

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<v Speaker 1>access and addressing other causes of concerns for getting vaccines,

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<v Speaker 1>but being able to shed your mask indoors is a

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<v Speaker 1>real motivator. Hey Bill, Dr males Is, does it make

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<v Speaker 1>you though a little apprehensive that maybe we're doing it

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<v Speaker 1>a little early. Well, it's a tough balance. You know,

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<v Speaker 1>I would say, you know, there are still some communities

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<v Speaker 1>in the United States where there's a lot of virus transmission,

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<v Speaker 1>and so the risk maybe higher. It will be higher

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<v Speaker 1>in those communities, But the fact that we're seeing cases

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<v Speaker 1>come down, Uh, we still want to see them come

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<v Speaker 1>down much further. Um as vaccination levels going up, although

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<v Speaker 1>the pace has slowed. UM that combination really makes us safer.

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<v Speaker 1>And I think people needed a motivating factor. They needed

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<v Speaker 1>to see some of the real tangible benefits of getting

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<v Speaker 1>back to So does this get us President Biden's goal

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<v Speaker 1>by the fourth of July American adults getting a shot.

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<v Speaker 1>I hope. I think it will contribute him, But I

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<v Speaker 1>think there's still more to do. We know that there

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<v Speaker 1>are some Americans who want to get back to native

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<v Speaker 1>and they're just having trouble doing it for for a

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<v Speaker 1>variety of reasons. And so we need to do have

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<v Speaker 1>greater efforts to bring vaccines to people um. And we

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<v Speaker 1>also need to do more to try to address the

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<v Speaker 1>various concerns, whether it's about you know, the safety of

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<v Speaker 1>the vaccine, or or people just underestimating the risk of

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<v Speaker 1>COVID nineteen to themselves, to their family we still have

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<v Speaker 1>more work to do, but I think this, this will help.

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<v Speaker 1>So how does this play out? Because here's what Dr

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<v Speaker 1>Rochelle Willinsky just said. The CDC is updating our guidance

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<v Speaker 1>for fully vaccinated people. Anyone who is fully vaccinated can

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<v Speaker 1>participate in indoor air act or activities large or small

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<v Speaker 1>without wearing a mask or physical distancing. If you are

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<v Speaker 1>fully vaccinated, you can start doing the things that you

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<v Speaker 1>would stop doing because of the pandemic. Once you're fully

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<v Speaker 1>vaccinated two weeks after your last DOST, you can shed

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<v Speaker 1>your masks. So does that mean we should just be

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<v Speaker 1>going to the grocery store and taking our masks off

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<v Speaker 1>in the grocery store. I think this is this will

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<v Speaker 1>still be a personal decision. I mean that they're Uh.

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<v Speaker 1>Dr Willens is really trying to normalize the lives of

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<v Speaker 1>people who are fully vaccinated, bring us back really to

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<v Speaker 1>pre pandemic situation. Uh. Again for those who are fully vaccinated.

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<v Speaker 1>But we we know the vaccines are protective at least

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<v Speaker 1>the instant section of mild. Least, we still have to

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<v Speaker 1>monitor for variants that may tape some of some of

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<v Speaker 1>the immunity conferred by the vaccine. That's still a concern.

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<v Speaker 1>We haven't seen real solid evidence that that's happening yet. Um,

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<v Speaker 1>but I think I think people will make of a

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<v Speaker 1>personal decision about their risk. You know. One other, one

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<v Speaker 1>other thing that we should talk about is, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>this past year we've seen the lowest levels of influenza

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<v Speaker 1>virus infection storys insitial virus infections, and that's because of

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<v Speaker 1>the masking and and public health precautions that we've taken.

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<v Speaker 1>So I think we as a society can look hardest

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<v Speaker 1>to w that we want to continue some of the

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<v Speaker 1>particularly different influenza season or other restiry disease seasons, which

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<v Speaker 1>are largely in the winter time. Yeah. No, it's it's

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<v Speaker 1>interesting that you say that, and I thought about it,

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<v Speaker 1>uh as I am, you know, walking a little bit

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<v Speaker 1>more around the city and just thinking about this past

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<v Speaker 1>year and thinking about how none of us really in

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<v Speaker 1>our family got any kind of serious colds or or

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<v Speaker 1>or flu that that's true. Um. Having said that, you

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<v Speaker 1>made the point that the vaccines are not a hundred

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<v Speaker 1>percent effective, and we're figuring it out when to the

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<v Speaker 1>immunity goes away. So I don't know whether it's in

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<v Speaker 1>a few months we're gonna have to think about boosters. Correct,

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<v Speaker 1>just got about forty seconds. Then we'll come back and

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<v Speaker 1>talk some more. Yes, Uh, we still don't know yet,

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<v Speaker 1>Uh the duration of the protection exactly as you said,

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<v Speaker 1>but we are going to start having to think about boosters,

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<v Speaker 1>either because of waning immunity or because of the emergence

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<v Speaker 1>and widespread transmission of variant. So yesterday we got some

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<v Speaker 1>more on twelve to fifteen year olds that a group

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<v Speaker 1>of medical experts saying children in that age group can

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<v Speaker 1>safely take the COVED nineteen vaccine made by Fiser and

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<v Speaker 1>by in Tech. How important is it, though, Bill, to

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<v Speaker 1>getting kids vaccinated, to us getting to her immunity, or

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<v Speaker 1>at least closer to it, or more her immunity than less. Yes,

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<v Speaker 1>but it's certainly Carol gets us closer to her immunity.

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<v Speaker 1>There are approximate seventeen million children in that age group

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<v Speaker 1>in the United States, and you're exactly right. Food and

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<v Speaker 1>Drug Administration issued an emergency Youth authorization and then we

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<v Speaker 1>got the CDC approval and pushman to go Sason. Why

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<v Speaker 1>it's important for children to be vaccinated first, it's to

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<v Speaker 1>protect the child. We we know children have our lower

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<v Speaker 1>risk of severe disease, but sillions of children have been

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<v Speaker 1>effective the United States, thousands hospitalized, even hundreds died, and

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<v Speaker 1>some children are at risk for an inflammatory or syndrome

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<v Speaker 1>even if they've had very mild covide. The second reason

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<v Speaker 1>is just to help our children get back to normal lots,

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<v Speaker 1>summer camp, get to school, um and then lastly, really

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<v Speaker 1>protect our families and friends and communities, because really anyone

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<v Speaker 1>susceptible to infection as a potential transmitter of infection. Dr Moss,

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<v Speaker 1>what's a realistic way for us to think about how

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<v Speaker 1>even younger age groups can get access to the vaccine?

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<v Speaker 1>Is it pretty typical that if something is safe for

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<v Speaker 1>twelve to fifteen year olds, it can be safe for

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<v Speaker 1>eight to eleven year olds and safe for two to

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<v Speaker 1>seven year old Is that a realistic way to think

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<v Speaker 1>about it. That's that's the reasonable assumption to him. But

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<v Speaker 1>it still needs to be studied, and so the vaccine

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<v Speaker 1>manufacturers fies them with Derna, Dunson, and Johnson are all

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<v Speaker 1>studying the safety and efficacy of these vacts in the

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<v Speaker 1>younger and younger children. This is a typical way that

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<v Speaker 1>vaccines are studied. You start in uh in adults, and

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<v Speaker 1>you kind of work your way down in in groups

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<v Speaker 1>of children. So we're seeing studies in children five to

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<v Speaker 1>eleven years of age and then uh, you know, younger

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<v Speaker 1>ages two years to uh to four years of age

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<v Speaker 1>and even under two six months two years of age. So, UM,

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<v Speaker 1>what we have to what has to be looked at

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<v Speaker 1>you very carefully though, is we get to younger children.

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<v Speaker 1>Is the dosing, and so all the vaccine manufacturers look

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<v Speaker 1>to see whether a smaller dose of the vaccine will

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<v Speaker 1>will also be safe and effective. Vaccinating the world is

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<v Speaker 1>proving to be a lot more difficult, and maybe not

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<v Speaker 1>as a surprise. Um, why is it important, Bill that

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<v Speaker 1>the US turn its attention to vaccinating the world and

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<v Speaker 1>what does the US need to be doing? Yes, girl,

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<v Speaker 1>I think this is the most important question facing the

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<v Speaker 1>United States right now. Uh. It's understandable that we're focused

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<v Speaker 1>on our own population. We had a terrible pandemic uh

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<v Speaker 1>in the United States, but I think we're reaching a

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<v Speaker 1>point we really need to focus on the world. You know.

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<v Speaker 1>The bottom line, it's simple, We're not safe here in

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<v Speaker 1>the United States until this pandemic is controlled, and it's

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<v Speaker 1>a global pandemic. The more the virus is transmitted UH,

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<v Speaker 1>particularly at the levels like we're seeing in countries like

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<v Speaker 1>India or Brazil, the more chances it has to mutate.

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<v Speaker 1>And this is the time for the United States to

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<v Speaker 1>step up really be a leader in the global fight

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<v Speaker 1>against the pandemic. And that includes you know, donating excess

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<v Speaker 1>vaccine doses UM, allowing you know, materials to go to

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<v Speaker 1>other countries to manufacture vaccines, supporting the Kovacs facility, which

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<v Speaker 1>is the the UH the basically the mechanism to get

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<v Speaker 1>vaccines to low and middle income countries. I'm I'm wondering

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<v Speaker 1>about variants and vaccines because the narrative has has been

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<v Speaker 1>for for months now. One way to think about the

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<v Speaker 1>us is responsibility in getting vaccine or control around the

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<v Speaker 1>world is to think about it from a selfish perspective

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<v Speaker 1>and make sure that variance and variants that can't penetrate

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<v Speaker 1>vaccines don't come here. Is there any evidence that that

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<v Speaker 1>could or will happen. Well, what we've seen so far,

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<v Speaker 1>Tim is you know, basically the studies are supporting the

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<v Speaker 1>fact that our currents of vaccines authorized for u C

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<v Speaker 1>United States are effective against the kind of current panel

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<v Speaker 1>of of their there is some reduced UH protection um

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<v Speaker 1>or or you know, they require higher levels of our

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<v Speaker 1>protective bodies for some of the variants, for example, the

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<v Speaker 1>variant that was first identified in South Africa, the B

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<v Speaker 1>one three five one variant. But in general, all the

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<v Speaker 1>all the current vaccines are UH effective, particularly against the

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<v Speaker 1>here disease, against these variants. So we don't have to

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<v Speaker 1>panic yet, we need to be very diligent in the situation. Alright,

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<v Speaker 1>We're gonna leave it on that note. Thank you so

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<v Speaker 1>much for your time. Really appreciated. Dr Bill Moss, Professor

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<v Speaker 1>of Epidemiology at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health,

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<v Speaker 1>Executive director of the International Vaccine Access Center, and of

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<v Speaker 1>course the Bloomberg School of Public Health supporting my Michael R. Bloomberg,

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<v Speaker 1>founder of Bloomberg LP and Bloomberg Philanthropies. Are you gonna

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<v Speaker 1>wear your mask now? I'm kind of comfortable with it.

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<v Speaker 1>I will say that when I was walking the streets

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<v Speaker 1>and I had a bag of potato chips, I was

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<v Speaker 1>kind of munching on it, kind of had the mask

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<v Speaker 1>back outside. It's a different story. But my daughter, who

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<v Speaker 1>they teach like put the mask back on Okay, it's

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<v Speaker 1>like rough, okay not this is Bloomberg Business Week with

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<v Speaker 1>Carol Masser and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>the Bloomberg Big Take also happens to be the cover

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<v Speaker 1>story of this week's magazine. The cover image is pretty incredible.

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<v Speaker 1>Um My producer Paul Brennan talking about it earlier, I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>it was just it's amazing. You gotta check it out.

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<v Speaker 1>It's also the most read story on the Bloomberg Today.

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<v Speaker 1>And Tim, it's about the former immigrant kid who is

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<v Speaker 1>now worth billions, the so called pie piper of the

0:11:59.600 --> 0:12:03.800
<v Speaker 1>recent link check Craze. We're talking about Chamath Polyopatia. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>if you're on Twitter and you you know, follow Chamath much.

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<v Speaker 1>He doesn't need any introduction. As we talked about earlier,

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<v Speaker 1>he's kind of like a one named person at this point.

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<v Speaker 1>Joe Weber's editor of Bloomberg Business Week. He joins us

0:12:15.720 --> 0:12:18.760
<v Speaker 1>live here, and Zeke Fox is finance reporter for Bloomberg News,

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<v Speaker 1>joins us on the phone, but he is right here

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<v Speaker 1>at our New York City bureau. Joel, this is just

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<v Speaker 1>a fantastic read and and and my big takeaway is

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<v Speaker 1>that even though Chamath's UH spacks have really struggled this year,

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<v Speaker 1>Chamath is going to be totally fine. Yeah. I mean

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<v Speaker 1>that's sort of been the real kind of the kernel

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<v Speaker 1>of the story that UM uh that Zeke I think

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<v Speaker 1>hit on UM. You know, banks for a lot of people,

0:12:46.679 --> 0:12:49.440
<v Speaker 1>UM came out of nowhere and have become just a

0:12:49.600 --> 0:12:52.720
<v Speaker 1>theme of the past year one for just years of

0:12:52.720 --> 0:12:55.120
<v Speaker 1>our lives, and acts were one of the things that

0:12:55.400 --> 0:13:00.680
<v Speaker 1>UM at least became watching. And Chamath obviously and a

0:13:00.840 --> 0:13:02.760
<v Speaker 1>huge proponent of them. He says he wants to do

0:13:02.800 --> 0:13:06.200
<v Speaker 1>as many as UM. And you know, I think that

0:13:06.240 --> 0:13:08.720
<v Speaker 1>there's a thing that I'm going to ask you about here,

0:13:08.720 --> 0:13:12.480
<v Speaker 1>which is looked like spacts can be really lucrative for

0:13:12.559 --> 0:13:15.360
<v Speaker 1>the sponsors, but Zeke, how do they how does it

0:13:15.360 --> 0:13:18.000
<v Speaker 1>look like they end up working up for for the

0:13:18.000 --> 0:13:22.400
<v Speaker 1>rest of us. So I looked into one spect that

0:13:22.840 --> 0:13:27.520
<v Speaker 1>Tremas promoted this year called Clover, and when he was

0:13:27.559 --> 0:13:29.839
<v Speaker 1>taking it public, he was pitching it sort of to

0:13:29.920 --> 0:13:34.040
<v Speaker 1>the everyday investor as I can't miss I'm gonna ten

0:13:34.160 --> 0:13:38.840
<v Speaker 1>ext your money kind of thing. And since then if

0:13:38.840 --> 0:13:40.400
<v Speaker 1>you bought it on the day that he pitched it.

0:13:40.440 --> 0:13:44.640
<v Speaker 1>Since then it's dropped by about a quarter. Of course,

0:13:44.679 --> 0:13:46.480
<v Speaker 1>you have to wait and see how it works out

0:13:46.480 --> 0:13:49.000
<v Speaker 1>in the long run. But the real thing that with

0:13:49.080 --> 0:13:54.080
<v Speaker 1>SPACs is that as a sponsor, Tamas gets of the

0:13:54.200 --> 0:13:57.880
<v Speaker 1>spack as a kind of fee called the promote um.

0:13:57.920 --> 0:14:01.199
<v Speaker 1>So he's out there saying, I've kind of discovered the

0:14:01.240 --> 0:14:04.040
<v Speaker 1>secret to being rich. I'm gonna let the little guy

0:14:04.120 --> 0:14:07.200
<v Speaker 1>into these private deals that have gotten me with where

0:14:07.200 --> 0:14:10.760
<v Speaker 1>I am um and my interests are aligned with yours.

0:14:11.160 --> 0:14:15.400
<v Speaker 1>But meanwhile, really he's making his money off these fees,

0:14:15.400 --> 0:14:18.240
<v Speaker 1>and the stock would really have to crash very low

0:14:18.320 --> 0:14:21.760
<v Speaker 1>before he would be in the red. Well, Zeke, what

0:14:21.760 --> 0:14:23.920
<v Speaker 1>did you find out about Clover Health when you were

0:14:23.920 --> 0:14:27.680
<v Speaker 1>doing this recording? So the pitch for Clover Health is

0:14:27.720 --> 0:14:30.640
<v Speaker 1>that it was a tech company that was going to

0:14:31.040 --> 0:14:34.840
<v Speaker 1>revolutionize healthcare, and if you weren't listening that closely, you

0:14:34.920 --> 0:14:37.840
<v Speaker 1>might not even really pick up that it was really

0:14:37.880 --> 0:14:40.880
<v Speaker 1>a health insurance company. And of course you can find

0:14:40.920 --> 0:14:43.000
<v Speaker 1>this all out from its securities filings if you're the

0:14:43.080 --> 0:14:46.360
<v Speaker 1>kind of person who reads those. But really, it's a

0:14:46.400 --> 0:14:50.440
<v Speaker 1>Medicare advantage plan that almost exclusively operates in New Jersey.

0:14:50.880 --> 0:14:53.120
<v Speaker 1>Not really a very big company, and from talking to

0:14:53.480 --> 0:14:57.640
<v Speaker 1>former employees, one that's had a lot of trouble hitting

0:14:57.680 --> 0:15:00.320
<v Speaker 1>its growth targets in the past expanding the way it

0:15:00.400 --> 0:15:03.640
<v Speaker 1>wanted to. Now, of course, they have this pitch now

0:15:03.760 --> 0:15:06.760
<v Speaker 1>that they've invented uh tech tool that's sort of the

0:15:06.800 --> 0:15:10.240
<v Speaker 1>culmination of you know, a decade of their existence that's

0:15:10.280 --> 0:15:13.720
<v Speaker 1>really going to bring together all their machine learning technology

0:15:13.800 --> 0:15:18.080
<v Speaker 1>to analyze patient data and recommend treatments, and that this

0:15:18.120 --> 0:15:21.520
<v Speaker 1>is what's really going to make the company take off. Um.

0:15:21.720 --> 0:15:24.160
<v Speaker 1>But I hope that the investors that are buying it

0:15:24.280 --> 0:15:28.320
<v Speaker 1>understand that, you know, this is a pretty risky new

0:15:28.360 --> 0:15:33.720
<v Speaker 1>business rather than something that is you know, guaranteed to

0:15:33.720 --> 0:15:38.360
<v Speaker 1>go up and you say, decade in business still losing money.

0:15:39.000 --> 0:15:42.040
<v Speaker 1>So that if it was being taken public, you know,

0:15:42.400 --> 0:15:44.520
<v Speaker 1>and it was going on a road show, you would

0:15:44.560 --> 0:15:48.760
<v Speaker 1>certainly see zeke it become under a lot of scrutiny. Yeah,

0:15:48.840 --> 0:15:52.640
<v Speaker 1>that's sort of the appeal of SPACs for a lot

0:15:52.640 --> 0:15:56.600
<v Speaker 1>of companies is when you go public, the underwriters are

0:15:56.600 --> 0:16:00.600
<v Speaker 1>worried about getting sued if they make projections that are wrong.

0:16:00.920 --> 0:16:05.560
<v Speaker 1>So you're almost forced to dwell on your recent results.

0:16:05.880 --> 0:16:08.120
<v Speaker 1>So if you're a company with like Clover that's losing

0:16:08.760 --> 0:16:12.440
<v Speaker 1>huge amounts of money every year, but you're on the

0:16:12.560 --> 0:16:16.440
<v Speaker 1>verge of a turnaround. You say, Um, when you do

0:16:16.480 --> 0:16:19.920
<v Speaker 1>a SPAC, you can talk more about your great future

0:16:20.000 --> 0:16:25.200
<v Speaker 1>prospects and you can hopefully investors won't dwell on your

0:16:25.720 --> 0:16:29.200
<v Speaker 1>recent losses. And there's been just like a huge wave

0:16:29.240 --> 0:16:34.280
<v Speaker 1>of these unprofitable UH companies with big dreams going public

0:16:34.320 --> 0:16:36.440
<v Speaker 1>through spacts this year, and for a while, it just

0:16:36.440 --> 0:16:39.000
<v Speaker 1>seems like all of them went up. I mean almost

0:16:39.000 --> 0:16:40.680
<v Speaker 1>people were talking about it like it was almost a

0:16:40.720 --> 0:16:43.320
<v Speaker 1>new asset class. You could just invest in spacts and

0:16:43.920 --> 0:16:47.600
<v Speaker 1>get great returns well. And then um, gravity kind of

0:16:47.640 --> 0:16:49.960
<v Speaker 1>came in and and things have changed a little bit.

0:16:50.080 --> 0:16:54.240
<v Speaker 1>Um and hence the spacticost flat cover. Um zeke though,

0:16:54.240 --> 0:16:57.280
<v Speaker 1>I wanted to ask because despite what what we'll publish

0:16:57.320 --> 0:17:00.040
<v Speaker 1>in the magazine, and um, despite maybe that data, it

0:17:00.520 --> 0:17:04.680
<v Speaker 1>doesn't seem like it might stop Jams, right, And even

0:17:04.720 --> 0:17:06.720
<v Speaker 1>as you were working on this story, he announced that

0:17:06.800 --> 0:17:09.880
<v Speaker 1>there was another one coming with a certain gym chain.

0:17:10.760 --> 0:17:12.920
<v Speaker 1>So how do you how do you make sense of

0:17:12.920 --> 0:17:16.920
<v Speaker 1>of of where Jamas could go with his vision of SPACs.

0:17:18.760 --> 0:17:22.840
<v Speaker 1>So he has turned himself into kind of a brand

0:17:22.920 --> 0:17:26.080
<v Speaker 1>name like Goldman Sachs. And if you're a company that

0:17:26.119 --> 0:17:28.560
<v Speaker 1>wants to go public, maybe you hire a bank to

0:17:29.080 --> 0:17:31.600
<v Speaker 1>do an I p O. And now people are aware

0:17:31.640 --> 0:17:34.480
<v Speaker 1>that there's another option that you could merge with one

0:17:34.520 --> 0:17:39.639
<v Speaker 1>of Polhopatia's SPACs. And my big question is whether the

0:17:39.960 --> 0:17:45.040
<v Speaker 1>brand name can survive one or two bad deals. Um,

0:17:45.080 --> 0:17:47.280
<v Speaker 1>if it was it was built on just sort of

0:17:47.320 --> 0:17:50.800
<v Speaker 1>this to the moon idea, Um, is he gonna lose

0:17:50.840 --> 0:17:55.000
<v Speaker 1>his appeal if he has a mixed track record like

0:17:55.640 --> 0:17:58.280
<v Speaker 1>anyone who's bringing companies public is likely to have. In

0:17:58.359 --> 0:18:01.560
<v Speaker 1>the long run, you can't all be winners. But you're right,

0:18:01.560 --> 0:18:04.960
<v Speaker 1>he's just the other day Bloomberg News broke that he

0:18:05.240 --> 0:18:10.840
<v Speaker 1>is planning to bring the Jim Chain Equinox public um.

0:18:10.880 --> 0:18:13.680
<v Speaker 1>But well, he hasn't raised any new blank check companies

0:18:13.680 --> 0:18:15.760
<v Speaker 1>for a while, so that's something to keep an eye

0:18:15.760 --> 0:18:20.119
<v Speaker 1>on if he's uh raises more gets closer to his

0:18:20.200 --> 0:18:24.840
<v Speaker 1>goal of six. Like he said, it's kind of like,

0:18:24.880 --> 0:18:27.720
<v Speaker 1>you know, SPACs, are they a venture capital pool where

0:18:27.720 --> 0:18:29.600
<v Speaker 1>you're playing around? You know what you mean? Like that

0:18:29.640 --> 0:18:32.159
<v Speaker 1>maybe a lot of them will ultimately play out, But

0:18:32.240 --> 0:18:34.800
<v Speaker 1>do investors kind of totally get that versus if you

0:18:34.880 --> 0:18:37.600
<v Speaker 1>go through the I P O traditional route, you're vetted

0:18:37.760 --> 0:18:40.240
<v Speaker 1>a lot differently. One point like how many people get

0:18:40.320 --> 0:18:42.080
<v Speaker 1>hurt along the way, and what does that do for

0:18:42.280 --> 0:18:45.280
<v Speaker 1>future interest in the same things? Right, Yeah, exactly. It's

0:18:45.320 --> 0:18:48.040
<v Speaker 1>a great read and it is a great cover. We've

0:18:48.080 --> 0:18:50.159
<v Speaker 1>been talking about in the news room. Joel. Well, it

0:18:50.280 --> 0:18:52.520
<v Speaker 1>started with me saying, SPACs go splat, and then I

0:18:52.520 --> 0:18:55.240
<v Speaker 1>think we proceeded to look at as many possible versions

0:18:55.280 --> 0:18:57.520
<v Speaker 1>of the same idea as possible until we got it right.

0:18:57.600 --> 0:18:59.800
<v Speaker 1>So the one you settled on is awesome. It's really

0:18:59.840 --> 0:19:01.680
<v Speaker 1>really wonderful, all right. Joe Weber, of course, editor of

0:19:01.720 --> 0:19:03.760
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Business Week. That is the cover story. It's also

0:19:03.800 --> 0:19:06.560
<v Speaker 1>the Bloomberg Big Take. Seek Fox wrote it Finance reporter

0:19:06.600 --> 0:19:10.399
<v Speaker 1>at Bloomberg News. This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol

0:19:10.480 --> 0:19:14.920
<v Speaker 1>Messer and Bloomberg Quick Takes, Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio.

0:19:15.400 --> 0:19:17.680
<v Speaker 1>Hey in the magazine this week and the new issue,

0:19:17.720 --> 0:19:19.639
<v Speaker 1>as we mentioned, it is online on the Bloomberg and

0:19:19.680 --> 0:19:22.720
<v Speaker 1>on newstands. It includes Business Week Economics editor Peter Koy

0:19:22.760 --> 0:19:25.719
<v Speaker 1>writing about how to make sense of the surprising inflation signals.

0:19:25.760 --> 0:19:27.679
<v Speaker 1>And I gotta say, Tim, this is kind of just

0:19:27.760 --> 0:19:30.000
<v Speaker 1>what the doctor ordered after this week's inflation data and

0:19:30.040 --> 0:19:33.359
<v Speaker 1>market reaction. Yesterday, markets were freaked out. Today, maybe not

0:19:33.440 --> 0:19:35.760
<v Speaker 1>someone not so much. Yeah. I think those numbers that

0:19:35.760 --> 0:19:39.960
<v Speaker 1>we got about employment continuing employment claims actually throwing some

0:19:40.119 --> 0:19:42.399
<v Speaker 1>throwing some water on that idea. Let's get right into

0:19:42.440 --> 0:19:44.680
<v Speaker 1>it with Peter Koy, economics editor at Bloomberg business Week.

0:19:44.680 --> 0:19:46.640
<v Speaker 1>He joins us on the phone from New Jersey. So, Peter,

0:19:46.720 --> 0:19:52.480
<v Speaker 1>what's real what's transitory? Yeah, this is a debate, and

0:19:52.680 --> 0:19:54.960
<v Speaker 1>we tried to go right down the middle on this

0:19:55.040 --> 0:19:57.440
<v Speaker 1>one and give both sides and will let people judge

0:19:57.440 --> 0:20:01.199
<v Speaker 1>for themselves. But it's the Fed, of course, is on

0:20:01.200 --> 0:20:05.360
<v Speaker 1>the transitory side of the argument. And uh, Steve Matthews,

0:20:05.400 --> 0:20:07.440
<v Speaker 1>my Bloomberg colleague, is a good story about that today.

0:20:07.760 --> 0:20:11.760
<v Speaker 1>In six reasons that the Fed is um still fairly calm,

0:20:11.800 --> 0:20:13.920
<v Speaker 1>I would say the number one reason the Fed is

0:20:14.000 --> 0:20:17.600
<v Speaker 1>calm is that it looks at expectations of inflation, which

0:20:17.600 --> 0:20:21.800
<v Speaker 1>have been anchored for up until really just about now.

0:20:22.119 --> 0:20:26.320
<v Speaker 1>The Fed was worried that people would expect too low inflation.

0:20:26.440 --> 0:20:30.280
<v Speaker 1>That's why it's constantly laboring to get inflation higher. Now

0:20:30.320 --> 0:20:33.359
<v Speaker 1>that it's finally succeeding, instead of being patted on the back,

0:20:34.000 --> 0:20:36.879
<v Speaker 1>it's getting criticized for letting inflation get out of control.

0:20:36.920 --> 0:20:38.800
<v Speaker 1>So you can imagine be a little frustrating j polo

0:20:38.880 --> 0:20:44.920
<v Speaker 1>these days. Well wait, so because we're expecting more and

0:20:45.320 --> 0:20:48.120
<v Speaker 1>you know, help me out here, I expect you, Peter Coy,

0:20:48.200 --> 0:20:51.399
<v Speaker 1>to set it straight and make some sense out of it.

0:20:51.520 --> 0:20:55.240
<v Speaker 1>So right, I mean some things are transitory. You and

0:20:55.280 --> 0:20:58.720
<v Speaker 1>I have talked a million times about folks were bouncing

0:20:58.720 --> 0:21:01.600
<v Speaker 1>back from the economy being shut down a year ago,

0:21:02.080 --> 0:21:06.080
<v Speaker 1>and so right, like some of this is normal, when

0:21:06.119 --> 0:21:08.639
<v Speaker 1>does it become abnormal? Help us make sense of the

0:21:08.720 --> 0:21:10.880
<v Speaker 1>data points that we're seeing there? There are some there's

0:21:10.960 --> 0:21:14.919
<v Speaker 1>some inflation that's caused by just pent up demand pouring

0:21:14.960 --> 0:21:19.080
<v Speaker 1>onto the market. So uh Richard Clara To, the Vice

0:21:19.160 --> 0:21:22.720
<v Speaker 1>chair of the Fed, made the point yesterday this is

0:21:22.760 --> 0:21:27.040
<v Speaker 1>one data point to April uh CPI number, and that

0:21:27.160 --> 0:21:31.520
<v Speaker 1>you you're gonna expect volatility in the important data series

0:21:31.680 --> 0:21:33.960
<v Speaker 1>at times like this, when the economy is recovering from

0:21:34.000 --> 0:21:38.320
<v Speaker 1>a major, major dislocation. And just because the price goes

0:21:38.560 --> 0:21:41.160
<v Speaker 1>up in one month doesn't mean it's going to keep

0:21:41.160 --> 0:21:43.720
<v Speaker 1>going up. After that, it could either stabilize as this

0:21:43.800 --> 0:21:45.840
<v Speaker 1>new higher level, or it could go back down, which

0:21:45.880 --> 0:21:50.359
<v Speaker 1>means it's subtracting from the CPI in future months. And

0:21:50.560 --> 0:21:55.000
<v Speaker 1>I guess um, I tend to lean against the new

0:21:55.000 --> 0:21:58.639
<v Speaker 1>conventional wisdom, which seems to me that inflation is really

0:21:59.040 --> 0:22:03.119
<v Speaker 1>totally fearsome and scary as heck uh, lean more in

0:22:03.160 --> 0:22:05.920
<v Speaker 1>the direction of saying, come on, calm down a little bit,

0:22:06.040 --> 0:22:07.600
<v Speaker 1>this is not such a dissaster. And I see that's

0:22:07.600 --> 0:22:10.280
<v Speaker 1>the way the markets are reacting today, right, Hey, folks,

0:22:10.320 --> 0:22:13.120
<v Speaker 1>I've seen a few cycles before. Um No, But Peter,

0:22:13.160 --> 0:22:15.280
<v Speaker 1>what's interesting is though here you have a day McDonald's

0:22:15.280 --> 0:22:18.440
<v Speaker 1>boosting average US wages to over thirteen an hour. They're

0:22:18.480 --> 0:22:22.960
<v Speaker 1>hiring ten thousand workers to Potle also raised its average

0:22:22.960 --> 0:22:27.040
<v Speaker 1>hourly waged to fifteen dollars an hour. Amazon hiring and

0:22:27.080 --> 0:22:30.320
<v Speaker 1>they're also paying more workers wage. Inflation is something we

0:22:30.359 --> 0:22:33.479
<v Speaker 1>watch very closely, and we've had folks on air our

0:22:33.480 --> 0:22:36.439
<v Speaker 1>own I think Carl Rickadonna, maybe Mike McKee saying that

0:22:36.520 --> 0:22:41.000
<v Speaker 1>unless something has changed structurally in the ability of workers

0:22:41.040 --> 0:22:46.240
<v Speaker 1>to demand higher wager wages, you know, longer term you know,

0:22:46.359 --> 0:22:49.760
<v Speaker 1>that's when we start to run into trouble. So like

0:22:49.880 --> 0:22:53.320
<v Speaker 1>if wages notch upward by say two dollars an hour,

0:22:53.920 --> 0:22:58.679
<v Speaker 1>and then that becomes the new normal, that's my definition transitory.

0:22:58.760 --> 0:23:02.160
<v Speaker 1>That's a reset to a kind of maybe more appropriate level.

0:23:02.160 --> 0:23:06.439
<v Speaker 1>Maybe workers were getting underpaid UM unless it gets to

0:23:06.440 --> 0:23:08.280
<v Speaker 1>the point where it's going up and up and up,

0:23:08.320 --> 0:23:11.120
<v Speaker 1>and that in the companies are raising prices to compensate

0:23:11.200 --> 0:23:13.000
<v Speaker 1>for it, and then workers demand higher wages comes to

0:23:13.040 --> 0:23:16.520
<v Speaker 1>have a higher prices. That's that's a wage price spiral,

0:23:17.000 --> 0:23:20.960
<v Speaker 1>which is scary and and that is something to watch

0:23:20.960 --> 0:23:23.439
<v Speaker 1>out for for sure, but we're not seeing evidence of

0:23:23.440 --> 0:23:25.560
<v Speaker 1>it yet. And that's why the set is like for now,

0:23:25.880 --> 0:23:28.800
<v Speaker 1>we're still on hold. So what's the important data point

0:23:28.840 --> 0:23:31.920
<v Speaker 1>for for us to keep an eye on? No, I

0:23:32.240 --> 0:23:37.880
<v Speaker 1>would keep paying attention to UM wages. My story includes

0:23:37.920 --> 0:23:41.920
<v Speaker 1>the Employment cost intext, which is a better measure of

0:23:42.080 --> 0:23:46.000
<v Speaker 1>inflation and wage wages than you get in the average

0:23:46.000 --> 0:23:50.040
<v Speaker 1>hour learnings figure in it comes with the jobs report

0:23:50.119 --> 0:23:53.360
<v Speaker 1>last friday. Uh so yeah, watch that and and that's

0:23:53.400 --> 0:23:57.240
<v Speaker 1>high not not denying it. UM. I would pay more

0:23:57.280 --> 0:24:00.159
<v Speaker 1>attention to that than I would just say, um, what

0:24:00.320 --> 0:24:03.200
<v Speaker 1>we're seeing in commodities. You know, gasolene is gonna bounce around.

0:24:03.200 --> 0:24:05.960
<v Speaker 1>It does. It always has the same with iron, copper, lumber, cotton.

0:24:06.440 --> 0:24:09.359
<v Speaker 1>These are things that are inherently volatile, and the closer

0:24:09.400 --> 0:24:12.480
<v Speaker 1>you get to the consumer, the less volatile prices tend

0:24:12.520 --> 0:24:15.399
<v Speaker 1>to be. So that's why the CPI is more important

0:24:15.400 --> 0:24:17.520
<v Speaker 1>to look at than, say, for example, today's PPR, which

0:24:17.520 --> 0:24:21.440
<v Speaker 1>is also on the high side good stuff being producer

0:24:21.480 --> 0:24:24.399
<v Speaker 1>Price Index of courts. Yeah right, I'm still scratching my

0:24:24.400 --> 0:24:26.280
<v Speaker 1>head a little bit because I feel like it's it's

0:24:26.320 --> 0:24:29.160
<v Speaker 1>the conversation Peter. We have we haven't like about twenty seconds,

0:24:29.160 --> 0:24:32.119
<v Speaker 1>but we have it every day, and I know, and

0:24:32.160 --> 0:24:34.280
<v Speaker 1>I guess we have to have not just one month,

0:24:34.320 --> 0:24:38.359
<v Speaker 1>but more months, right exactly. Let's let's wait, Let's watch

0:24:38.359 --> 0:24:40.400
<v Speaker 1>a few more months and see what happens, and then

0:24:40.440 --> 0:24:42.760
<v Speaker 1>we can make more of a decision. Peter Cole, I

0:24:42.800 --> 0:24:45.520
<v Speaker 1>thank you so much, economics editor at Bloomberg Business Week.

0:24:45.640 --> 0:24:48.880
<v Speaker 1>I want the data now, though, Patience, patience, my son,

0:24:49.359 --> 0:24:57.560
<v Speaker 1>this is Bloomberg the journal now. But you let me drive.

0:24:57.840 --> 0:25:04.000
<v Speaker 1>Oh no, no, no no, job home, honey, please, I'll do velt.

0:25:04.520 --> 0:25:19.960
<v Speaker 1>I want to drive, just drive the question trying. This

0:25:20.440 --> 0:25:23.680
<v Speaker 1>is the drive to the globe. Commun Thanks, we'll drying

0:25:23.800 --> 0:25:27.320
<v Speaker 1>us to dawn on Bloomberg Radio. All right, just about

0:25:27.400 --> 0:25:30.040
<v Speaker 1>ten and a half minutes left in today's trading session.

0:25:30.040 --> 0:25:32.000
<v Speaker 1>We've got a few earnings coming your way. Disney will

0:25:32.040 --> 0:25:34.639
<v Speaker 1>be breaking them down with our Beyond the Bell team

0:25:34.800 --> 0:25:36.720
<v Speaker 1>in just a moment when they come out after the

0:25:36.720 --> 0:25:39.000
<v Speaker 1>closing bell. In the meantime, we're pretty much at our

0:25:39.200 --> 0:25:40.840
<v Speaker 1>best levels of the session when it comes to the

0:25:40.960 --> 0:25:43.560
<v Speaker 1>SMP and DOWD. We just heard Doug breaking down those numbers.

0:25:43.640 --> 0:25:45.919
<v Speaker 1>Nastack still having a tougher time, but it too has

0:25:45.960 --> 0:25:49.159
<v Speaker 1>bounced back more than one percentage point exactly, much different

0:25:49.160 --> 0:25:52.280
<v Speaker 1>than we were a little bit earlier today. So let's

0:25:52.280 --> 0:25:55.080
<v Speaker 1>get into it with Mira pound it Uh. She's Global

0:25:55.160 --> 0:25:58.240
<v Speaker 1>Market Strategies at JPMorgan Asset Management, joining us on the

0:25:58.280 --> 0:26:00.359
<v Speaker 1>phone in New York City. Mere good to have you

0:26:00.400 --> 0:26:04.320
<v Speaker 1>here with Tim and myself. So, how do you distinguish

0:26:04.680 --> 0:26:07.680
<v Speaker 1>today's trade where we got a hot inflation numbers producer

0:26:07.720 --> 0:26:10.840
<v Speaker 1>prices versus yesterday's trade where we got a hot inflation

0:26:10.920 --> 0:26:14.919
<v Speaker 1>number which was consumer prices. Well, thanks for having me,

0:26:15.000 --> 0:26:18.159
<v Speaker 1>and I think that Ultimately, investors are nervous that higher

0:26:18.160 --> 0:26:21.040
<v Speaker 1>inflation means higher rates. Well, look at the Seed is

0:26:21.040 --> 0:26:23.640
<v Speaker 1>willing to stay the course on rates, and higher inflation

0:26:23.680 --> 0:26:26.399
<v Speaker 1>that's coupled with higher growth doesn't need to be a

0:26:26.440 --> 0:26:28.960
<v Speaker 1>bad thing. And I think that markets are waking up

0:26:29.000 --> 0:26:31.359
<v Speaker 1>to that today. In fact, it can be a sign

0:26:31.440 --> 0:26:34.320
<v Speaker 1>of of healing and recovery. And I think, so, why

0:26:34.320 --> 0:26:36.680
<v Speaker 1>didn't we see that way yesterday? Why didn't we feel

0:26:36.680 --> 0:26:39.080
<v Speaker 1>that way? Our Peter Coy making the distinction that when

0:26:39.080 --> 0:26:42.720
<v Speaker 1>it's closer to the consumer, higher prices maybe than mean

0:26:42.800 --> 0:26:46.080
<v Speaker 1>higher wages, which means higher prices, which means higher wages,

0:26:46.080 --> 0:26:51.000
<v Speaker 1>and you get into basically a wage price spiral. Well,

0:26:51.040 --> 0:26:55.320
<v Speaker 1>I think that while we are seeing some legitimate wage pressure, overall,

0:26:55.560 --> 0:26:58.640
<v Speaker 1>the FED still looks like it wants to remain on target.

0:26:58.680 --> 0:27:01.720
<v Speaker 1>And I think that the gut reaction yesterday was this

0:27:01.840 --> 0:27:04.159
<v Speaker 1>is going to go off into an environment. We're going

0:27:04.160 --> 0:27:06.560
<v Speaker 1>to see higher rates right away that's going to hurt

0:27:06.560 --> 0:27:09.080
<v Speaker 1>things like the text sector, and that's going to become

0:27:09.359 --> 0:27:12.760
<v Speaker 1>a bigger market headwind to today. Realizing, look, some of

0:27:12.800 --> 0:27:15.040
<v Speaker 1>this is really just friction from the fact that the

0:27:15.080 --> 0:27:17.720
<v Speaker 1>economy is reopening. You know, last year we turned the

0:27:17.720 --> 0:27:19.879
<v Speaker 1>economy off with the life which you can't turn it

0:27:19.920 --> 0:27:22.360
<v Speaker 1>back on without a bit of an adjustment period. We're

0:27:22.400 --> 0:27:25.080
<v Speaker 1>seeing that in supply chains UM and I think that

0:27:25.400 --> 0:27:27.440
<v Speaker 1>a lot of that is going to work itself out

0:27:27.440 --> 0:27:29.760
<v Speaker 1>throughout the course of the year. But to Carrol's point,

0:27:30.400 --> 0:27:33.439
<v Speaker 1>it is today the difference between yesterday and today, those

0:27:33.600 --> 0:27:37.119
<v Speaker 1>initial jobless claims that seem to be showing a strengthening

0:27:37.200 --> 0:27:41.640
<v Speaker 1>labor market falling this morning to a pandemic low. Absolutely.

0:27:41.760 --> 0:27:43.679
<v Speaker 1>I think that plays into it where a lot of

0:27:43.800 --> 0:27:46.720
<v Speaker 1>investors were rattled by the job's report last week coming

0:27:46.720 --> 0:27:49.000
<v Speaker 1>in weaker than expected. Are people going to come off

0:27:49.000 --> 0:27:51.680
<v Speaker 1>the sidelines without a bit of wage pressure. But when

0:27:51.680 --> 0:27:55.359
<v Speaker 1>we look at the body of the different UM jobs indicators,

0:27:55.400 --> 0:27:58.119
<v Speaker 1>we have jobless claims as one of them, we're seeing

0:27:58.119 --> 0:28:01.240
<v Speaker 1>that there still is some strength in the labor market overall.

0:28:01.320 --> 0:28:04.600
<v Speaker 1>So we can't take one report and extrapolate too much

0:28:04.680 --> 0:28:07.840
<v Speaker 1>off of that, especially when there's so much real time

0:28:07.920 --> 0:28:11.200
<v Speaker 1>change going on. Yeah, exactly, Like, let's remember where we

0:28:11.200 --> 0:28:13.920
<v Speaker 1>were roughly a year ago, right, we have to kind

0:28:13.920 --> 0:28:16.040
<v Speaker 1>of put it into perspective. We fell off a cliff,

0:28:16.080 --> 0:28:17.639
<v Speaker 1>I know, I say this a million times, but we

0:28:17.680 --> 0:28:20.080
<v Speaker 1>fell off a cliff and now we have, you know,

0:28:20.080 --> 0:28:22.240
<v Speaker 1>found our way back. Is part of a two mira

0:28:22.440 --> 0:28:25.000
<v Speaker 1>that the FED has to be and they've said this,

0:28:25.119 --> 0:28:28.320
<v Speaker 1>I think time and time again that they are willing

0:28:28.359 --> 0:28:32.000
<v Speaker 1>to risk having a little bit of inflation going a

0:28:32.000 --> 0:28:34.480
<v Speaker 1>little bit hot to make sure that we don't fall

0:28:34.560 --> 0:28:37.680
<v Speaker 1>back when it comes to economic growth, because building or

0:28:37.720 --> 0:28:39.920
<v Speaker 1>getting ourselves out of the hole is tougher than getting

0:28:39.920 --> 0:28:43.120
<v Speaker 1>in the hole in the first place. That's right. You know,

0:28:43.160 --> 0:28:45.960
<v Speaker 1>the FED has said we are willing to on average

0:28:46.000 --> 0:28:48.760
<v Speaker 1>get to two percent inflation, but we're willing to overshoot

0:28:48.800 --> 0:28:51.320
<v Speaker 1>that a little bit because remember that inflation was incredibly

0:28:51.360 --> 0:28:54.480
<v Speaker 1>subdued over the last decade UM. You know, from a

0:28:54.560 --> 0:28:58.280
<v Speaker 1>labor market perspective, not everybody in the labor market weekally

0:28:58.320 --> 0:29:02.200
<v Speaker 1>felt that healing UM, so perhaps the end stages of

0:29:02.240 --> 0:29:04.240
<v Speaker 1>the recovery. So I think that the FED really wants

0:29:04.280 --> 0:29:07.000
<v Speaker 1>to make sure that there's a proper healing from this

0:29:07.120 --> 0:29:10.040
<v Speaker 1>pandemic before they make too many moves in terms of rate.

0:29:10.720 --> 0:29:14.920
<v Speaker 1>I'm wondering about wage pressures. It's something that people we

0:29:14.920 --> 0:29:16.320
<v Speaker 1>talked you over and over again, tell us to keep

0:29:16.360 --> 0:29:18.200
<v Speaker 1>an eye on and I thought of it this morning

0:29:18.200 --> 0:29:20.400
<v Speaker 1>when I saw the news from McDonald's that they're raising

0:29:20.440 --> 0:29:24.240
<v Speaker 1>wages for the employees and company owned stores Mira and

0:29:24.240 --> 0:29:27.640
<v Speaker 1>and also Amazon saying they're gonna hire seventy five people

0:29:27.640 --> 0:29:30.120
<v Speaker 1>in those wages will be higher than they've been in

0:29:30.120 --> 0:29:32.800
<v Speaker 1>the past. Is that a sign of wage of of

0:29:32.840 --> 0:29:36.840
<v Speaker 1>wage inflation? Sure, I do think we are going to

0:29:36.880 --> 0:29:38.800
<v Speaker 1>see a little bit of wage inflation. I mean, what

0:29:38.840 --> 0:29:41.080
<v Speaker 1>we saw on the jobs report too, is that actually

0:29:41.120 --> 0:29:43.320
<v Speaker 1>some of this is a bit more sticky than perhaps

0:29:43.320 --> 0:29:45.720
<v Speaker 1>people originally thought. You know, we've been talking a lot

0:29:45.760 --> 0:29:49.040
<v Speaker 1>about various compositional effects, but really when you strip those

0:29:49.080 --> 0:29:51.560
<v Speaker 1>out and control for that kind of pre pandemic, we

0:29:51.600 --> 0:29:53.880
<v Speaker 1>are seeing a bit of an acceleration in wages. But

0:29:53.960 --> 0:29:56.240
<v Speaker 1>similar to inflation, you have to compare it to the

0:29:56.280 --> 0:29:59.200
<v Speaker 1>fact that wage inflation has been very subdued over the

0:29:59.280 --> 0:30:01.560
<v Speaker 1>last ten years, so we are recovering in that sense

0:30:01.560 --> 0:30:03.600
<v Speaker 1>as well. What do you make when stocks and bonds

0:30:03.600 --> 0:30:07.040
<v Speaker 1>are going up together? We don't necessarily necessarily see that correlation,

0:30:07.120 --> 0:30:09.480
<v Speaker 1>but you know, yields we kind of settled down, We

0:30:09.480 --> 0:30:13.120
<v Speaker 1>actually moved down today. I think when we see stocks

0:30:13.120 --> 0:30:16.200
<v Speaker 1>and bonds moving together. It is this sign of recovery

0:30:16.240 --> 0:30:18.560
<v Speaker 1>and that the stock market is feeling a lot of

0:30:18.600 --> 0:30:23.520
<v Speaker 1>optimism about accelerating growth, really robust profits, and equally that's

0:30:23.560 --> 0:30:27.760
<v Speaker 1>being reflected in yields as inflation and growth gets stronger.

0:30:27.760 --> 0:30:30.200
<v Speaker 1>I think it's kind of an early cycle indicator that

0:30:30.560 --> 0:30:32.800
<v Speaker 1>things are moving in the right direction. All right, so

0:30:32.880 --> 0:30:36.160
<v Speaker 1>let's let's put all of these macro ideas to work.

0:30:36.600 --> 0:30:39.120
<v Speaker 1>You've got to do it over there at JPMorgan Asset Management.

0:30:39.160 --> 0:30:42.680
<v Speaker 1>So clients come in, big institutional clients come in, Uh,

0:30:42.720 --> 0:30:45.200
<v Speaker 1>you know, high net well worth individuals, Like, what do

0:30:45.240 --> 0:30:46.720
<v Speaker 1>you say, where is it that we want to be

0:30:46.720 --> 0:30:50.000
<v Speaker 1>allocating new money at this point? I think from an

0:30:50.000 --> 0:30:53.720
<v Speaker 1>investment standpoint, from an inflationary picture, when we're seeing higher

0:30:53.720 --> 0:30:57.320
<v Speaker 1>inflation and higher growth coupled together, we are still leaning

0:30:57.320 --> 0:31:00.080
<v Speaker 1>into some of the more cyclical or more value you

0:31:00.160 --> 0:31:03.360
<v Speaker 1>oriented areas of the stock market. We've seen a robust

0:31:03.400 --> 0:31:06.120
<v Speaker 1>recovery and particularly some of those cyclical areas, and there's

0:31:06.160 --> 0:31:09.840
<v Speaker 1>more to go. From an earning standpoint, we're really focusing

0:31:09.840 --> 0:31:13.520
<v Speaker 1>on quality companies with good earning um. If the dollar

0:31:13.640 --> 0:31:17.800
<v Speaker 1>continues to weaken, international stocks, particularly because people haven't quite

0:31:17.800 --> 0:31:20.640
<v Speaker 1>priced in their recovery yet is UM I think has

0:31:20.680 --> 0:31:22.520
<v Speaker 1>a lot of room to run. And then some of

0:31:22.520 --> 0:31:27.040
<v Speaker 1>those classic inflation hedges areas like commodities, real assets, you know,

0:31:27.120 --> 0:31:30.320
<v Speaker 1>res infrastructure can also provide a lot of value to

0:31:30.440 --> 0:31:32.440
<v Speaker 1>clients and also kind of help them sleep at night

0:31:32.440 --> 0:31:35.960
<v Speaker 1>if they are worried about inflation pressures the infrastructure play.

0:31:36.080 --> 0:31:38.840
<v Speaker 1>How are you kind of strategizing around that when it

0:31:38.840 --> 0:31:42.600
<v Speaker 1>comes to political action or policy action. So what we're

0:31:42.640 --> 0:31:45.400
<v Speaker 1>thinking of in terms of how the policy implications are

0:31:45.440 --> 0:31:48.320
<v Speaker 1>likely to take place, is that we're going to see

0:31:48.360 --> 0:31:50.880
<v Speaker 1>a lot of negotiations over the next month and probably

0:31:50.920 --> 0:31:53.920
<v Speaker 1>throughout the summer. If any part of the infrastructure bill

0:31:54.080 --> 0:31:57.520
<v Speaker 1>is going to pass through budget reconciliation, which just requires

0:31:57.520 --> 0:32:01.040
<v Speaker 1>that simple majority so effectively only Democrats to support UM,

0:32:01.120 --> 0:32:04.440
<v Speaker 1>that can happen any time before release September thirty. So

0:32:04.480 --> 0:32:06.080
<v Speaker 1>I think we're gonna have a long lead time in

0:32:06.120 --> 0:32:09.480
<v Speaker 1>which there could be some bipartisan agreement, or there could

0:32:09.480 --> 0:32:12.800
<v Speaker 1>be you know, portions pass through reconciliation. Either way, it

0:32:12.920 --> 0:32:15.920
<v Speaker 1>stands to reason that a lot of these initiatives m

0:32:16.000 --> 0:32:18.560
<v Speaker 1>are likely to to play out and pass ultimately in

0:32:18.920 --> 0:32:21.600
<v Speaker 1>one form or the other. Are you. Are you recommending

0:32:21.600 --> 0:32:24.720
<v Speaker 1>that clients keep cash on the sidelines right now, like

0:32:24.760 --> 0:32:26.600
<v Speaker 1>there's going to be some sort of further dip at

0:32:26.680 --> 0:32:29.920
<v Speaker 1>least inequities where things will be less expensive if they

0:32:29.920 --> 0:32:33.880
<v Speaker 1>want to get in. Look, I think that yesterday, today,

0:32:33.880 --> 0:32:36.040
<v Speaker 1>the last couple of days when we had seen a correction,

0:32:36.160 --> 0:32:39.040
<v Speaker 1>represents a good time to get in. I wouldn't recommend

0:32:39.040 --> 0:32:41.240
<v Speaker 1>being in cash right now, just because of all the

0:32:41.280 --> 0:32:44.320
<v Speaker 1>momentum we're seeing um within the economy, and the fact

0:32:44.360 --> 0:32:45.920
<v Speaker 1>that even if we do see a bit of a

0:32:45.960 --> 0:32:49.880
<v Speaker 1>dip or a bit of volatility, the fundamental backdrop is

0:32:49.880 --> 0:32:52.800
<v Speaker 1>still so strong that I don't think it's worth trying

0:32:52.840 --> 0:32:54.640
<v Speaker 1>to time in and out of the market and get

0:32:54.680 --> 0:32:57.400
<v Speaker 1>the timing right. It's better to just get in sooner

0:32:57.840 --> 0:32:59.920
<v Speaker 1>um and reach the benefits, even if there is a

0:33:00.000 --> 0:33:03.200
<v Speaker 1>bit of choppiness just quickly twenty seconds. Where don't you

0:33:03.200 --> 0:33:05.520
<v Speaker 1>want to be in this market environment right now? Just quickly?

0:33:06.360 --> 0:33:08.600
<v Speaker 1>I think we want to pay attention within fixed income

0:33:08.680 --> 0:33:11.280
<v Speaker 1>to some of those longer duration bonds as we do

0:33:11.400 --> 0:33:14.200
<v Speaker 1>see yields rising, so we really want to head towards

0:33:14.200 --> 0:33:16.719
<v Speaker 1>the shorter end of the curve and shorten up in duration.

0:33:16.760 --> 0:33:19.440
<v Speaker 1>That's really one of the areas where UM investors are

0:33:19.440 --> 0:33:21.200
<v Speaker 1>going to want to be a little bit careful, all right,

0:33:21.280 --> 0:33:24.000
<v Speaker 1>really appreciate your thoughts, the macro ideas and then putting

0:33:24.000 --> 0:33:26.880
<v Speaker 1>it to work. Mirapond It. She's Global Markets stadgist Over

0:33:26.960 --> 0:33:31.760
<v Speaker 1>JP Morgan Asset Management. Thanks for listening to Bloomberg Business Week.

0:33:31.880 --> 0:33:35.440
<v Speaker 1>Download the podcast on iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg dot com,

0:33:35.480 --> 0:33:37.160
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0:33:37.160 --> 0:33:40.240
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0:33:40.360 --> 0:33:41.840
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