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Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome to What Goes Up, a weekly markets podcast.

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Speaker 1: My name is Mike Reagan. I'm a senior editor at

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg and Humble Donna higher across as a reporter with Bloomberg,

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Speaker 1: and this week on the show, well, there's no getting

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Speaker 1: around it. The world has changed a tremendous amount in

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Speaker 1: just the last six weeks. Russia's invasion of Ukraine is

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Speaker 1: not only destabilized Eastern Europe, but it's threatening to cause

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Speaker 1: disruption in global alliances and macroeconomics the likes of which

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Speaker 1: most of us have never seen in our lives. We'll

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Speaker 1: try to unpack it all with a very well known

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Speaker 1: economist who focuses on global economics. But first, Bolda, I

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Speaker 1: thought of you the other night because my daughter is

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Speaker 1: she's very good at matt She's taking a P calculus

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Speaker 1: and she was doing her homework and I confess I'm

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Speaker 1: a little rusty on my calculus. I haven't used it

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Speaker 1: in about thirty years. And so she knows this, and

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Speaker 1: she knows not to ask me any advice on calculus.

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Speaker 1: And you know, I'm sitting in the room watching basketball

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Speaker 1: and she she comes at me with a worksheet with

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Speaker 1: a bunch of calculus problems on it. I think she

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Speaker 1: sends the panic in my eye and she said, don't worry, Dad,

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Speaker 1: it's not a calculus question. It's a grammar question. I've

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Speaker 1: noticed a grammar problem in this word problem and I

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Speaker 1: and I need you to tell me if this is

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Speaker 1: right or wrong. And I thought this sounds like Fildonna.

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Speaker 1: Like Fildonna, you would you would like refuse to answer

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Speaker 1: that calculus question until the grammar, as she was resolved.

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Speaker 1: I feel like I'm one of those annoying people who

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Speaker 1: will point out grammar mistakes to other people, you know,

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Speaker 1: even when they're talking, or especially if Bloomberg with with

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Speaker 1: all of our stories, I'll email people, I'll say you

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Speaker 1: misspelled this, and it very rarely goes appreciated. Let the

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Speaker 1: record show you're the one who said annoying, not me.

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Speaker 1: But by the way, about that, yeah, okay, but the

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Speaker 1: the segway you're waiting for the segway? I know. And

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Speaker 1: and I was thinking about the calculus of global relations

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Speaker 1: right now. I think it's about as tricky of an

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Speaker 1: equation as we've seen in years, and I think we

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Speaker 1: got the perfect guests to solve it for us. What

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Speaker 1: do you think we do. That's a great transition. I

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Speaker 1: wasn't sure where you're you were going with it at first,

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Speaker 1: but great transition. I'm really really excited to have Adam Posen,

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Speaker 1: president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, join our

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Speaker 1: show today. Adam, thank you so much for coming on

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Speaker 1: the podcast. Thank you, and thank you for not seguaying

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Speaker 1: to me about being annoying that would have been, or

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Speaker 1: about calculus. Thank you, Adam. I know I'm not the

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Speaker 1: only one who's I've lost all of my my high

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Speaker 1: school and college calculus. It's just gone. It's like a

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Speaker 1: new language to me. It's great to me. Yeah. But

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Speaker 1: as to her was when you're doing calculus homework, don't

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Speaker 1: worry about the grammar. You're wasting your time. Just just

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Speaker 1: just just georder. I think I think I think your

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Speaker 1: daughter is onto something right A demonstrate it's how the

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Speaker 1: question is phraised. Even if it's a word problem that matters.

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Speaker 1: As you are about to demonstrate, it doesn't matter, Adam.

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Speaker 1: I want to start out very broadly speaking. I was

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Speaker 1: hoping you could just lay out what the Peterson Institute

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Speaker 1: is for our audience and what you guys are all

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Speaker 1: about sure, thank you. We're a nonprofit, nonpartisan what's called

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Speaker 1: the think tank or research institute. We are committed to

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Speaker 1: the idea that globalization well managed to open it for

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Speaker 1: your trade remove of ideas and people is welfare and

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Speaker 1: ancing is which is he can speak for better for

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Speaker 1: the people of the world and people of the US,

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Speaker 1: and that there are policies that matter in managing that.

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Speaker 1: So our staff, which is about senior scholars, half full

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Speaker 1: time half academics nolsewhere are people who have generally served

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Speaker 1: in senior roles in government and at some point in

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Speaker 1: their life got a PhD into some research and now

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Speaker 1: do policy work instead of teaching or instead of making

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Speaker 1: a big map. You know, I want to get into

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Speaker 1: sort of the nitty gritty of the current events around

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Speaker 1: the world. Um, but I wanted to first take a

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Speaker 1: step back and just talk about the notion of globalization. Uh.

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Speaker 1: And and the term globalists. You know, this has obviously

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Speaker 1: become sort of a a loaded term among many in

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Speaker 1: politics on the right, especially um um, starting on you know,

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Speaker 1: during the Trump administration and now obviously you know, uh,

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Speaker 1: this whole notion of what you know, what's going to

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Speaker 1: happen to the global order of economics after Russia's invasion. Uh.

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Speaker 1: You wrote a really interesting piece on this, asking, you know,

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Speaker 1: is this the end of globalization? But I was sticking

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Speaker 1: back to when I was a kid, and I think

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Speaker 1: you and I are pretty much in the ballpark of

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Speaker 1: same age, you know, meaning we're very young guys obviously

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Speaker 1: um strapping, trapping bright futures. But I was thinking back to, say,

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Speaker 1: the seventies and eighties, when we're kids, and there was

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Speaker 1: very much a major push back to globalization back then.

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Speaker 1: You know, Japan was sort of emerging as a major

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Speaker 1: manufacturing powerhouse UM OPEC. There was a lot of resentment

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Speaker 1: towards OPEC because of the oil embargoes of the seventies,

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Speaker 1: and there was very much this sort of nationalist made

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Speaker 1: in America push UM and and year after year you'd

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Speaker 1: hear politicians saying, you know, I'm gonna fix this. We're

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Speaker 1: gonna bring back manufacturing. We're gonna bring back you know,

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Speaker 1: the steel mills and everything else, all these other good

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Speaker 1: blue collar jobs. But it all ended up to be

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Speaker 1: sort of just talk, right, and through the years it

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Speaker 1: seemed like sort of a further integration of the US

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Speaker 1: and the global economy was almost inevitable, like like gravity, right,

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Speaker 1: you know, um, with better technology, better transportation, air travel,

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Speaker 1: that it was just inevitable that the world was gonna

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Speaker 1: trade with each other more and become sort of more

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Speaker 1: liberal globally as far as trade goes. So I'm wondering,

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Speaker 1: is this episode we're experiencing now and really which started

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Speaker 1: under the Trump administration, is it a different Is this

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Speaker 1: a game change or a nours it? You know, is

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Speaker 1: it sort of the same idea that there's this pushback,

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Speaker 1: but that sort of that gravity of globalization will will

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Speaker 1: take over again and the world will bend towards that

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Speaker 1: that outcome eventually. It's actually a little worse than you

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Speaker 1: portray it. Um. The it isn't just since Trump. We

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Speaker 1: we published some research in colleagues did about two years

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Speaker 1: ago where we decided to look at the facts, and

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Speaker 1: the US has actually been deglobalizing or closing itself off

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Speaker 1: more accurately basically since roughly two um, so it's twenty years.

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Speaker 1: It accelerated on their Trump and but it and it

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Speaker 1: got more vocal. But actually we have been falling behind.

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Speaker 1: And when I say coming behind, I mean that quite

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Speaker 1: literally the rest of the world, including high income democracies

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Speaker 1: like those in Europe and Japan, but also places that

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Speaker 1: you would not think of as terribly liberal or open

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Speaker 1: have been continuing to open up. The US is a

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Speaker 1: very big outlire. It's not just trade, it's for direct investment,

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Speaker 1: it's trade deals, it's immigration, the whole host of dimensions

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Speaker 1: on which the US has been closing itself off increasingly

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Speaker 1: for twenty years. So you're right that the perception is

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Speaker 1: the globalization most dish other not that wiped out everything

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Speaker 1: in front of it. But that's actually a false characterization.

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Speaker 1: What has happened and I do think is the turning

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Speaker 1: point now, and there I agree with you, is that

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Speaker 1: these longer term worries about China not playing fair and

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Speaker 1: taking advantage of us, and this long term political sense

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Speaker 1: in the US that we we have to protect the

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Speaker 1: the limited number of manufacturing jobs in the world is

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Speaker 1: the problem. Those things are accelerated and reinforced by what's

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Speaker 1: happening now in Ukraine, by the Russian invasion. And so

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Speaker 1: I do think we're at a turning point where the

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Speaker 1: world is starting to break into economic blocks in a

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Speaker 1: way we haven't seen. As you said, you're in all time.

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Speaker 1: So you have been writing quite a bit just to

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Speaker 1: bring this all back to the recent event. You've been

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Speaker 1: writing quite a bit about this, which is why I'm

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Speaker 1: so happy to have you on the podcast this week.

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Speaker 1: But in one of your recent pieces, you did write

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Speaker 1: exactly that that the world is splitting into two camps,

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Speaker 1: one center on China, one around the US. So I

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Speaker 1: wanted to ask you to to talk about them, what

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Speaker 1: that looks like and how that develops. Yeah, and I'm

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Speaker 1: grateful to you. Feel done for inviting me on the

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Speaker 1: show and noticing what I've been writing. And then you're

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Speaker 1: doing a think think that God is helping people notice

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Speaker 1: what you're saying. Um, I think the splitting into two

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Speaker 1: camps isn't going to be absolute. So you know, Trump

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Speaker 1: and his US trade representative Lightheiser had this term decoupling

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Speaker 1: from China, which they didn't really do, but to the

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Speaker 1: extent they tried it, As my colleague at Peterson, Chad

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Speaker 1: Bound and others are documented the failed. Um. But what

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Speaker 1: I do think is happening is what I call corrosion

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Speaker 1: of globalization. That there were these linkages along multiple lines,

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Speaker 1: including people going back and forth, ideas going back and

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Speaker 1: forth business norms as well as things like trading in

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Speaker 1: hard woods manufacturers, um, and that's going to get increasingly separated.

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Speaker 1: I think actually the trade stuff will continue more than

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Speaker 1: other things because it's harder to control and it's harder

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Speaker 1: to substitute for. But you know, we're already seeing restrictions

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Speaker 1: on American ownership in China and vice versa on Chinese

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Speaker 1: ownership in the US. We're already seeing a lot of

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Speaker 1: suspicion about Chinese grad students and otherwise students and professors

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Speaker 1: in the US. I think a lot of its Exandrea.

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Speaker 1: But whatever it is, we're gonna end up in a

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Speaker 1: world where there's going to be a lot of restrictions

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Speaker 1: focused on keeping technology moving between the US and China

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Speaker 1: and between US and allies and Chinese want. And that's

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Speaker 1: a world that probably a slower innovation that reinforces the

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Speaker 1: divisions because you start having different technical standards, you start

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Speaker 1: having different product lines, and and so it just becomes

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Speaker 1: real self reinforcing, you know. And Adam, I want to

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Speaker 1: uh sort of ask you to put on your Central

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Speaker 1: bankers hat um and and listeners who aren't familiar with that,

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Speaker 1: AMA don't read his Wikipedia pages. One of these fascinating resumes.

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Speaker 1: We would need a whole another podcast to go through

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Speaker 1: it all. But work for some time at the Federal Reserve,

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Speaker 1: the Bank of England. UM. I don't know if you

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Speaker 1: work for consulted with the Bundesbank in Germany. UM long ago.

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Speaker 1: Thank you, Thank you for touting not mine. It's a

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Speaker 1: good one. It's a good one. I encourage people to

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Speaker 1: read it. But I want to talk specifically about UM inflation.

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Speaker 1: You know, one of the things people like to say

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Speaker 1: about this deterioration of globalization is that it will be

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Speaker 1: an upward pressure on inflation obviously going forward. But you know,

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Speaker 1: when we look at this red hot inflation that we're

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Speaker 1: seeing right now, there's a lot of finger pointing going on. Obviously.

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Speaker 1: You know, there's some research from the FED sort of

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Speaker 1: pointing out the finger at fiscal policy. UM. I think

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Speaker 1: a lot of people are pointing their finger at the

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Speaker 1: FED for keeping policy so loose, uh, perhaps for too long. UM.

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Speaker 1: The de globalization and obviously the supply chain issues that

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Speaker 1: we've seen around the world. I wonder if if in

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Speaker 1: your head it's possible to rank sort of what the

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Speaker 1: contributors have been uh to inflation. And you know, with

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Speaker 1: the benefit of hindsight, is there anything you think the

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Speaker 1: FED or Congress and the government did wrong far as

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Speaker 1: monetary or fiscal policy to get us in this situation. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I think that the story is a little more complicated

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Speaker 1: in terms of the linkage between globalization and foreign policy.

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Speaker 1: I think the reduction in openness it does, uh diminish

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Speaker 1: the amount of downward price pressure you get from abroad

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Speaker 1: and diminishes competition, and over time that's bad for both

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Speaker 1: inflation and productivity. But I think in the short term

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Speaker 1: it's actually kind of disinflationary because it lowers the return

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Speaker 1: on capital because you're investing duplications and redundancies. It lowers

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Speaker 1: the diversification of capital because you're having to keep more

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Speaker 1: money at home, either because of regulation or fear, and

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Speaker 1: so in the first instance, it slows things down. In

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Speaker 1: terms of why we have such inflation in the US

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Speaker 1: right now, I think a chunk of it is stuff

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Speaker 1: that nobody foresaw. That people myself included lots of much

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Speaker 1: smarter people in the central banking community, didn't fully get

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Speaker 1: just how big a deal it was going to be

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Speaker 1: to reopen the economy. After COVID shutdowns, and in particular

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Speaker 1: how disruptive that would be to labor markets. Now, it's

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Speaker 1: interesting if you compare the US and Europe. The euro

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Speaker 1: areas saying before the Russians in the Ukraine, their inflation

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Speaker 1: rate was meaningfully lower than the US, and you know,

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Speaker 1: and their difference between core and headline inflation, meaning how

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Speaker 1: much of it was just attributable to energy versus more

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Speaker 1: general inflation was much bigger than the US. And I

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Speaker 1: think that was consistent with the story that we did

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Speaker 1: much better than the US had done in two thousand

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Speaker 1: eight pen and in the past about looking after people

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Speaker 1: when there was an external but an exologia crisis, in

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Speaker 1: this case, the pandemic, but we didn't do it quite

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Speaker 1: as well as the Europeans. That the Europeans ran their

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Speaker 1: programs to encourage people to stay in their jobs. They

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Speaker 1: subsidize people working part time or people being furloughed but

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Speaker 1: not laid off, whereas some classic US fashion, most workers

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Speaker 1: who had to get aid had to actually lose their job,

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Speaker 1: and I think that led to a lot of the

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Speaker 1: job switching and bidding and mismatch that we saw um

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Speaker 1: driving up wages. But the other thing, and here people

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Speaker 1: like my colleagues leve a blond charge Jason Furm and

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Speaker 1: Larry Somers, I think are right. Is the American Rescue

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Speaker 1: Package of early, the big additional fiscal package to the

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Speaker 1: Biden administration path through Congress, really was too much and

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Speaker 1: too short a time. I mean, we we didn't need

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Speaker 1: as much as we spent then, and it was all

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Speaker 1: spent in a pretty short order, and so you did

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Speaker 1: get overheating. So then you turn to the FED, and

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Speaker 1: I promise I won't go on forever, But then you

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Speaker 1: turn to the FED. I think the FED took a

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Speaker 1: reasonable gamble, which was that if we run the economy hawk,

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Speaker 1: which is a lot of good reasons to want to do,

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Speaker 1: especially since we kept under shooting inflation for years before

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Speaker 1: this UM, there's a chance E company overheat, but we

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Speaker 1: can afford to see how loo we can go. I

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Speaker 1: think the FED took the gamble, but I think they

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Speaker 1: should have and I would have, sitting in their place,

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Speaker 1: made the same game. But I think by the time

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Speaker 1: the Biden administration announced the American Rescue Package, and certainly

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Speaker 1: by middle of one, it was very clear the gamble

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Speaker 1: turned out badly and they should have been changing policy

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Speaker 1: and admitting they should need a change policy, meaning move

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Speaker 1: towards tightening. By that, I don't fully get what happened

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Speaker 1: essentially between April and December of last year. Adam. I

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Speaker 1: think I can speak for Voldada, and when I say

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Speaker 1: that journalists like us, we like it when people like

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Speaker 1: you go on forever. So so I love to hear

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Speaker 1: myself talk perfect Adam. What about the supply chains component

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Speaker 1: of this. I heard another interview you did with the

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Speaker 1: Marketplace podcast a couple of weeks ago, and you were

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Speaker 1: talking about how there's this fear potentially with other countries

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Speaker 1: that they're thinking maybe US, the US and others could

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Speaker 1: start to cut them off. Countries are moving production. I

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Speaker 1: think the term that's used a lot is on shore

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Speaker 1: or on shoring, And you know, we're hearing announcements from

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Speaker 1: from countries like Hungary. They're reporting food because of the

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Speaker 1: issues around supply chains and what's happening obviously with Russia

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Speaker 1: and Ukraine. So how does how does that play a

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Speaker 1: part in all of this? Oh, it definitely plays a part. Atlanta,

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Speaker 1: and we've got you know, the first thing that we

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Speaker 1: said about supply chains is that they weren't designed and

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Speaker 1: any sort of popped down way they were. They were

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Speaker 1: they sort of grew up organic. You had these large

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Speaker 1: multinational companies who would make individual decisions at the working

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Speaker 1: level of this departments as I got to cut cost,

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Speaker 1: Oh I can move this from US to China, or

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Speaker 1: from China to all and or if you're German, from

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Speaker 1: Boland to Romania, um and and each individual decision may

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Speaker 1: have made sense, but then it ended up with a

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Speaker 1: situation which was revealed exposed to be we had really

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Speaker 1: overextended this projects. And similarly lots of small businesses as

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Speaker 1: well as large businesses that oh, this is great just

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Speaker 1: in time delivery. I don't need to worry about inventory.

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Speaker 1: I can get what I need whenever I wanted. Oops,

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Speaker 1: that didn't really work out. And so I think there

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Speaker 1: is just a genuine learning experience and adjustment that's worth

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Speaker 1: doing in in terms of recalibrating what's in the supply

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Speaker 1: chains and thinking about the more top down the sense

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Speaker 1: as a risky portolio of investments rather than as a

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Speaker 1: system you could rely out. And my colleagues at Peterson

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Speaker 1: I mentioned chap Bow, but also Mary Lovely in particular,

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Speaker 1: have been doing a lot of interesting work on this um.

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Speaker 1: But then as you mentioned there there it starts being

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Speaker 1: this sort of political angle to it, and that's you

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Speaker 1: angle to it, and that's where things really get as

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Speaker 1: a trouble. The basic economic instinct and analysis is you're

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Speaker 1: better off diversifying than trying to be self reliant, and

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Speaker 1: you're better off stockpiling than trying to insist on production. Uh. First, directly,

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Speaker 1: just over time, is put your less at risk or

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Speaker 1: where you get yourself from the second, because if you

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Speaker 1: go into a world where everybody's scared the other people

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Speaker 1: won't give them what they want, then you get hoarding,

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Speaker 1: which is what we saw sadly at the start of

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Speaker 1: the COVID pandemic, where the rich country's hoarded medical equipment

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Speaker 1: and vaccines rather than allowing each other the poor countries

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Speaker 1: to get accessed and so and so. Now we see

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Speaker 1: this situation where Germany made itself much to dependent on

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Speaker 1: one supplier of energy as to Italy in this case Russia,

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Speaker 1: and it would be better if they had been more diversified.

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Speaker 1: But um, you know, uh, that's not the way it

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Speaker 1: worked out. And yet we still have Americans officials like

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Speaker 1: us t R. Ambassador tie or or or even President

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Speaker 1: by himself saying we need to make more at home,

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Speaker 1: we need manufacturing at home. Frankly, it's gonna make us

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Speaker 1: wor saw. I feel like there is a certain element

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Speaker 1: of politician who wants to bring the manufacturing back on shore,

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Speaker 1: but also cap immigration um. And it seems it seems

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Speaker 1: to me like you can have one or the other.

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Speaker 1: If you try to do, you're gonna be in trouble.

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Speaker 1: I don't I don't see how we couldn't say a

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Speaker 1: fox Con type of manufacturing facility or a semiconductor foundry

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Speaker 1: without you know, some supply of both low skill and

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Speaker 1: high skill skill immigrants to pull that off. Is that

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Speaker 1: is that basically you know the deal. I think they're

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Speaker 1: exactly right on two counts. First, that for all the

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Speaker 1: talk about economics, these are very much political decisions um

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Speaker 1: that not by the individual companies necessary, but the elected officials.

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Speaker 1: That often it's the same people who are anti immigration

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Speaker 1: are also anti trade, also anti foreigner in other ways.

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Speaker 1: And we saw this in the UK and Brexit as well.

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Speaker 1: That it you know, it wasn't just this rational decision. No,

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Speaker 1: I don't want to have too much regulation from the EU.

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Speaker 1: The same people who were voting for Brexit were the

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Speaker 1: same people who were nasty the refugees, for the most part,

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Speaker 1: who were the same people who are just generally suspicious

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Speaker 1: of foreigners. So there's that element. But you made a

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Speaker 1: very important point that immigration is critical through all kinds

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Speaker 1: of processes, not just manufacturing services, the functioning of the

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Speaker 1: US economy. And this has been true across our entire history.

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Speaker 1: This is frankly true going back to the ancient Egyptians

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Speaker 1: where they brought in these the Israelites of the time

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Speaker 1: to work in the fields. You know, you really set

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Speaker 1: your economy back when you don't make good use of

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Speaker 1: the people who want to come work there. And and

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Speaker 1: so this is reassuring. When it is combined for ideological

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Speaker 1: reasons or even unwittingly with anti immigration, is definitely going

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Speaker 1: to fail. I also wanted to ask you how these

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Speaker 1: trends manifest themselves for the average person. So it's the

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Speaker 1: average American. You know, if if the average American is

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Speaker 1: looking around, how do we see some of these trends

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Speaker 1: playing out? I think you mentioned we're going to have

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Speaker 1: less innovation, but how else is the all changing around us?

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Speaker 1: On an everyday basis sort of yeah, I think well,

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Speaker 1: I mean, clearly, part of it is the short term inflation,

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Speaker 1: and that's very meaningful people, meaningful for people. Part of

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Speaker 1: it is we're already starting to see less variety in

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Speaker 1: our stories and you know, and evenage sometimes when people

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Speaker 1: say that is, oh, you will feed liberal, you want

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Speaker 1: twenty kinds of trees and competter. But it also means

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Speaker 1: things very practically in terms of what kinds of cars

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Speaker 1: are available, what kinds of computer capacities are available, what

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Speaker 1: kinds of training frankly is available. Because you start pulling out,

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Speaker 1: for example, the thousands of Chinese graduate students and researchers

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Speaker 1: from the US science system, we don't have enough people

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Speaker 1: to teach a lot of classes, uh, and to to

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Speaker 1: enable us to develop our our science capabilities. And so

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Speaker 1: we're already starting to see some of these things. I

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Speaker 1: think we're also going to see very soon. Um, you know,

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Speaker 1: probably after some correction in the stock marked whenever the

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Speaker 1: I explain to you, which they will. Um, you're gonna

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Speaker 1: see somewhat lower returns going forward because people are not

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Speaker 1: going to be able to diversify and and money sort

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Speaker 1: of shut up in inside the US doesn't have to

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Speaker 1: elicit as competitive a yield. So I think people are

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Speaker 1: going to really start feeling it very soon. Adam, I

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Speaker 1: gotta say I personally, I do want the twenty types

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Speaker 1: of cheese. Um, you can call me what everyone, I'm

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Speaker 1: I'm done with that. But speaking of food, UM, that's

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Speaker 1: a big topic these days. I don't know if this

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Speaker 1: takes you out of your ears comfort zone at all,

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Speaker 1: because it's not often that sort of food and grain

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Speaker 1: and fertilizer prices enters the discussion of macro economics. But

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Speaker 1: I feel like they are now and and perhaps will

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Speaker 1: even more so in the future. You know, obviously Ukraine

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Speaker 1: Russia are both big producers of wheat, huge producers of

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Speaker 1: all manner of fertilizers. Um. You know, there's a lot

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Speaker 1: of talk about potential shortages of both. We've already seen

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Speaker 1: the prices go through the roof. You know, how are

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Speaker 1: you thinking about this in economic terms and really geopolitical terms?

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Speaker 1: I mean, is this the sort of the setup for

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Speaker 1: the type of Arab spring that we saw where high

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Speaker 1: food prices sort of led to a lot of destabilization

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Speaker 1: in the Arab world? Um? How big of a risk

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Speaker 1: is this just for the world in general and the

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Speaker 1: next year or two. It's a very astute question. And

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Speaker 1: again my colleagues of Peterson instut we have some experts

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Speaker 1: working on this. One is a political scientist, Colin Hendrix,

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Speaker 1: who thinks about this very much and the geopolitical context,

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Speaker 1: but also our colleagues Katherine Ross and Sherman Robinson have

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Speaker 1: worked on food issues. The most important point is to

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Speaker 1: understand that this is very much an issue for the

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Speaker 1: developing world. And so that's why I say you're very

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Speaker 1: right to mention where example Arab spring, Um that it

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Speaker 1: turns out that Egypt and other parts of North Africa

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Speaker 1: and the Middle East are a very heavily dependent on

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Speaker 1: we think of peter bread for a large part of

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Speaker 1: the diet of for people and be they are very

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Speaker 1: dependent on Ukraine and Russia for that Um. And again

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Speaker 1: some of what we said about medical technology as rich

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Speaker 1: folk in the U s and I know not everybody

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Speaker 1: in the US is rich, but on average by world standards,

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Speaker 1: So it's Ridge spoke. In the US we get the

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Speaker 1: stuff because we're willing to pay the higher price, and

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Speaker 1: the developing world doesn't. UM and Secretary Yelling Treasure Yelling's

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Speaker 1: latest speech talks a little bit about some of these things. UM,

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Speaker 1: So it is an energy crisis, are very real for

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Speaker 1: a lot of these countries. The people in these countries

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Speaker 1: that they are net importers of an energy and energy

431
00:26:01,359 --> 00:26:04,959
Speaker 1: is priced in dollars, which means it's very expensive for

432
00:26:05,359 --> 00:26:08,800
Speaker 1: people in these countries. So there's a lot going on

433
00:26:08,880 --> 00:26:14,000
Speaker 1: there that's pretty scary and could have lasting geopolitical effects

434
00:26:14,000 --> 00:26:18,120
Speaker 1: in the sense of maybe not revolutions, but changes in government,

435
00:26:18,359 --> 00:26:22,920
Speaker 1: radicalization of people, and social unrest because you know, hunger

436
00:26:22,960 --> 00:26:26,000
Speaker 1: and lack of energy is is a big deal. Um

437
00:26:26,240 --> 00:26:29,439
Speaker 1: to understate it, so I I can just go on.

438
00:26:29,680 --> 00:26:32,600
Speaker 1: I don't want to, because it's it's it, this is

439
00:26:32,640 --> 00:26:37,720
Speaker 1: the reality, and it's there are things the globe can

440
00:26:37,760 --> 00:26:40,679
Speaker 1: do about it, even in the context of global warming.

441
00:26:40,680 --> 00:26:43,879
Speaker 1: There are things we can do, but it requires a

442
00:26:44,000 --> 00:26:50,000
Speaker 1: level of global coordination that we were inadequate in providing,

443
00:26:50,080 --> 00:26:55,320
Speaker 1: we being the rich country governmance UM during COVID and

444
00:26:55,400 --> 00:26:58,480
Speaker 1: so I'm not very confident we're going to respond any

445
00:26:58,520 --> 00:27:03,919
Speaker 1: better this time around US. What what types of responses

446
00:27:03,960 --> 00:27:07,679
Speaker 1: because we did see the US, the EU and a

447
00:27:07,720 --> 00:27:12,400
Speaker 1: bunch of other countries response very respond very forcefully to

448
00:27:12,400 --> 00:27:14,280
Speaker 1: to Russia in terms of all of the sanctions that

449
00:27:14,359 --> 00:27:16,399
Speaker 1: have been put on, and that a lot of people

450
00:27:16,400 --> 00:27:20,159
Speaker 1: were saying did show the sort of unity among the

451
00:27:20,240 --> 00:27:25,480
Speaker 1: cohort of western or democratically uh democratical country. So I

452
00:27:25,520 --> 00:27:28,639
Speaker 1: think that's a fair point. Um in the piece you

453
00:27:28,720 --> 00:27:32,240
Speaker 1: already excited, I've written about that. I think the unity

454
00:27:32,520 --> 00:27:36,359
Speaker 1: and an activism that the European Union has shown on

455
00:27:36,400 --> 00:27:41,280
Speaker 1: this being the SANK coordinated sanction for fron not just

456
00:27:41,440 --> 00:27:47,719
Speaker 1: the US, but Singapore, Australia, Switzerland and Korean is really impressive.

457
00:27:48,040 --> 00:27:51,480
Speaker 1: But that's and even though that costs the money that

458
00:27:51,600 --> 00:27:56,520
Speaker 1: is offense, it's another thing to then say, oh, let's

459
00:27:56,560 --> 00:27:59,880
Speaker 1: worry about the spillovers on people in Africa or South

460
00:28:00,000 --> 00:28:05,640
Speaker 1: Asia or Central America. UM, And unfortunately those those are

461
00:28:05,720 --> 00:28:09,640
Speaker 1: separate issues. And again I'm not blaming the Europeans. I mean,

462
00:28:09,760 --> 00:28:12,840
Speaker 1: on on a year to year basis, they give five

463
00:28:12,960 --> 00:28:17,640
Speaker 1: to tenfold in aid UH and open up their markets

464
00:28:17,680 --> 00:28:21,080
Speaker 1: to trade as much or more than the US does

465
00:28:21,800 --> 00:28:26,280
Speaker 1: from developing countries. But you know, I just I would

466
00:28:27,720 --> 00:28:32,160
Speaker 1: there is terrible things that happened during covid UM that's

467
00:28:32,200 --> 00:28:36,400
Speaker 1: already put burdens on these countries. The US having inflation

468
00:28:36,520 --> 00:28:39,840
Speaker 1: and having to raise rates put another burden on these countries,

469
00:28:40,320 --> 00:28:44,760
Speaker 1: and then shortages of energy and food is a third bird.

470
00:28:45,520 --> 00:28:48,120
Speaker 1: So you know, people at the i m F, like

471
00:28:48,200 --> 00:28:51,200
Speaker 1: the managing director and the new deputy Managing director kee

472
00:28:51,280 --> 00:28:55,480
Speaker 1: To Cobenough, have been speaking about this. But you said

473
00:28:55,560 --> 00:28:59,840
Speaker 1: at the start about what are the policies, I don't

474
00:29:00,000 --> 00:29:02,760
Speaker 1: seem much out there in the in the bucket of proposals.

475
00:29:02,960 --> 00:29:09,120
Speaker 1: I mean, there should be coordinated buying and transferring of

476
00:29:09,120 --> 00:29:12,400
Speaker 1: of limited resources over a temporary period. There should be

477
00:29:12,440 --> 00:29:16,720
Speaker 1: strategic reserves like we have for energy, for food and

478
00:29:16,760 --> 00:29:20,480
Speaker 1: medicine for people in the developing world. There should be

479
00:29:21,400 --> 00:29:26,000
Speaker 1: efforts to assure countries that if they are willing to

480
00:29:26,120 --> 00:29:29,560
Speaker 1: export and sell their grain or or their soybean oil

481
00:29:29,720 --> 00:29:32,320
Speaker 1: or whatever, that they will be able to get trade

482
00:29:32,320 --> 00:29:34,680
Speaker 1: in return, because that's the only way you get countries

483
00:29:34,720 --> 00:29:39,880
Speaker 1: to be willing to export to others. Um And as

484
00:29:39,920 --> 00:29:43,080
Speaker 1: we mentioned, as we discussed, the Biden administration is not

485
00:29:43,400 --> 00:29:46,880
Speaker 1: being very good about that. So there's a lot to

486
00:29:46,960 --> 00:29:52,160
Speaker 1: do um and I hope I am completely wrong about

487
00:29:52,520 --> 00:29:58,000
Speaker 1: how little. In my view, uh, the the US is

488
00:29:58,040 --> 00:30:01,520
Speaker 1: likely to do on this front, God dam to bring

489
00:30:01,520 --> 00:30:04,520
Speaker 1: it back um soil to the realm where Bill down

490
00:30:04,560 --> 00:30:09,560
Speaker 1: and I exist in you know, focused on markets, um U,

491
00:30:09,800 --> 00:30:12,040
Speaker 1: a couple of things. I'm curious what you think about.

492
00:30:12,200 --> 00:30:16,000
Speaker 1: Um What is obviously there's a lot of talk about

493
00:30:16,200 --> 00:30:20,760
Speaker 1: how the US and European sanctions against Russia could potentially

494
00:30:20,800 --> 00:30:23,800
Speaker 1: disrupt the dollars role as sort of the most important

495
00:30:23,840 --> 00:30:27,560
Speaker 1: international currency. You know, there's already been talk about UH

496
00:30:27,560 --> 00:30:31,960
Speaker 1: Saudi Arabia perhaps selling oil to China priced in yuan,

497
00:30:33,080 --> 00:30:38,680
Speaker 1: Russia's demanding rubles um for its energy. Um So, I'm curious,

498
00:30:38,720 --> 00:30:41,040
Speaker 1: and from what I've read of yours, I I don't

499
00:30:41,080 --> 00:30:43,520
Speaker 1: get that you buy sort of the death of the

500
00:30:43,560 --> 00:30:46,000
Speaker 1: dollar story. Um So, wonder if you could talk a

501
00:30:46,040 --> 00:30:48,320
Speaker 1: little bit about that, and also what you're thinking about

502
00:30:48,360 --> 00:30:51,520
Speaker 1: interest rates going forward. I mean, it just seems like

503
00:30:51,560 --> 00:30:54,440
Speaker 1: there's no lid on rates at this point and nothing

504
00:30:54,480 --> 00:30:58,120
Speaker 1: that's gonna stop this ascent in yields. Um So, I'm

505
00:30:58,120 --> 00:31:00,400
Speaker 1: curious how you're thinking about both the dollar and and

506
00:31:00,480 --> 00:31:03,520
Speaker 1: interest rates right now. And obviously this is what a

507
00:31:03,520 --> 00:31:07,120
Speaker 1: lot of us are thinking about. And I'm spending most

508
00:31:07,160 --> 00:31:09,680
Speaker 1: of my thinking time as the post management. I'm on

509
00:31:09,760 --> 00:31:14,240
Speaker 1: this um in terms of the dollar. There's no question

510
00:31:14,320 --> 00:31:20,800
Speaker 1: that the first instinct of people seeing what the US

511
00:31:20,880 --> 00:31:24,640
Speaker 1: alliance did to Russian all of ours to Russian companies

512
00:31:24,680 --> 00:31:28,600
Speaker 1: to boot into the Russian economy, say oh my god,

513
00:31:29,000 --> 00:31:31,920
Speaker 1: I would be better off if I had some way

514
00:31:31,920 --> 00:31:35,000
Speaker 1: of getting around the US add some way of having

515
00:31:35,040 --> 00:31:37,640
Speaker 1: assets to either couldn't be frozen or could be used

516
00:31:37,840 --> 00:31:41,160
Speaker 1: no matter what the US did. And this is particularly

517
00:31:41,160 --> 00:31:47,040
Speaker 1: true for you know, people who borderline criminal regimes, people

518
00:31:47,080 --> 00:31:51,520
Speaker 1: who are politically deemed enemies of the US, people with

519
00:31:51,680 --> 00:31:55,320
Speaker 1: cleptocratic reviews. But it's also frankly even for a lot

520
00:31:55,400 --> 00:32:02,000
Speaker 1: of businesses, individuals, companies, even country that might agree with

521
00:32:02,080 --> 00:32:05,280
Speaker 1: the sanctions on Russia in the case of this invasion,

522
00:32:05,640 --> 00:32:07,920
Speaker 1: but then are forced to think, but you know, the

523
00:32:08,040 --> 00:32:11,240
Speaker 1: US is not that politically reliable. What happens if they

524
00:32:11,280 --> 00:32:14,520
Speaker 1: suddenly turn on me? Uh? There shows they're willing to

525
00:32:14,560 --> 00:32:19,240
Speaker 1: do that. So there is that sense of people thinking,

526
00:32:19,320 --> 00:32:21,120
Speaker 1: oh my god, I wish I had in alternives at

527
00:32:21,120 --> 00:32:24,600
Speaker 1: the doll But the fact is there's a different problem

528
00:32:24,640 --> 00:32:27,920
Speaker 1: that over overrides that, which is you need and alternatives,

529
00:32:29,000 --> 00:32:32,440
Speaker 1: And if we're in a world where it's not just

530
00:32:32,560 --> 00:32:35,200
Speaker 1: the US throwing its weight around, but the world which,

531
00:32:35,200 --> 00:32:39,320
Speaker 1: as we've said, I think is dividing along political to

532
00:32:39,360 --> 00:32:42,920
Speaker 1: your political lines. Then you're sort of stuck with, well,

533
00:32:42,960 --> 00:32:47,120
Speaker 1: I can put my money in China or in Chinese assets,

534
00:32:47,280 --> 00:32:50,240
Speaker 1: but then can I get it out from there? Will

535
00:32:50,280 --> 00:32:52,680
Speaker 1: it be useful to me? And you look at things

536
00:32:52,840 --> 00:32:57,120
Speaker 1: like the Chinese authorities deciding no, Jack Ma, you can't

537
00:32:57,160 --> 00:32:59,880
Speaker 1: do an anti I p L because you've annoyed us,

538
00:33:00,800 --> 00:33:04,360
Speaker 1: or you know, know all of you who owned assets

539
00:33:04,400 --> 00:33:08,440
Speaker 1: in private school teaching those assets are now worthless, or

540
00:33:09,160 --> 00:33:13,960
Speaker 1: you know, we're maintaining capital controls on even resident Chinese

541
00:33:14,000 --> 00:33:16,960
Speaker 1: born people on how much money they can take out

542
00:33:16,960 --> 00:33:20,760
Speaker 1: of the the economy. So you end up with a

543
00:33:20,800 --> 00:33:24,360
Speaker 1: world where people are not thrilled about being under the dollar,

544
00:33:24,960 --> 00:33:30,680
Speaker 1: but because of the security situation, um the alternatives become

545
00:33:30,720 --> 00:33:34,760
Speaker 1: even less attractive, and people are pushing more money frankly

546
00:33:34,840 --> 00:33:38,880
Speaker 1: into say fassets. What are considers say facets like the

547
00:33:38,960 --> 00:33:43,640
Speaker 1: dollar UM. So I think over the long term, meaning

548
00:33:43,920 --> 00:33:48,080
Speaker 1: five years or more, out you will see some pressures

549
00:33:48,120 --> 00:33:51,640
Speaker 1: against the dollar or attempts to create other financial systems

550
00:33:51,720 --> 00:33:54,080
Speaker 1: or to build up what the Chinese payment system looks

551
00:33:54,120 --> 00:33:57,360
Speaker 1: like but for the next several years, I don't see

552
00:33:57,360 --> 00:34:00,960
Speaker 1: it as as on net having much effect on the dollar.

553
00:34:01,040 --> 00:34:05,400
Speaker 1: If anything, the general facility environment will lead to more

554
00:34:06,600 --> 00:34:11,080
Speaker 1: of excess savings chasing the dollar because there's not as

555
00:34:11,160 --> 00:34:30,000
Speaker 1: many places the money. So can you actually talk more

556
00:34:30,000 --> 00:34:32,600
Speaker 1: about that, about these places where money can go and

557
00:34:32,640 --> 00:34:35,879
Speaker 1: where people will be turning to In terms of investments,

558
00:34:36,080 --> 00:34:38,200
Speaker 1: I think you wrote recently that there will be new

559
00:34:38,280 --> 00:34:41,399
Speaker 1: limits on where people can investor savings and that's going

560
00:34:41,440 --> 00:34:45,520
Speaker 1: to drive down the range of diversification and average returns.

561
00:34:45,560 --> 00:34:48,560
Speaker 1: So where do you see investors people putting their money.

562
00:34:49,920 --> 00:34:54,239
Speaker 1: It's a really good question, and and I think you

563
00:34:54,280 --> 00:34:59,759
Speaker 1: know it's there's obviously this idea among tech pros and

564
00:34:59,840 --> 00:35:04,600
Speaker 1: the Britarians and unholy breedings of them that cryptocurrency, cyber

565
00:35:04,680 --> 00:35:07,600
Speaker 1: currencies are going to be the answer. I mean, if

566
00:35:07,640 --> 00:35:09,719
Speaker 1: it it's just like we were talking about the ideology

567
00:35:09,719 --> 00:35:15,960
Speaker 1: of anti quopalization, the anti statist ideology leads to people saying, hey,

568
00:35:16,000 --> 00:35:21,440
Speaker 1: this is exactly what we set up cyber for, and

569
00:35:21,480 --> 00:35:24,840
Speaker 1: be it be a big coin or whatever, because the

570
00:35:24,840 --> 00:35:28,000
Speaker 1: whole point is, look, the state does appropriate your money.

571
00:35:28,040 --> 00:35:30,880
Speaker 1: The Russians are appropriating things that the Americans are expropriating.

572
00:35:30,960 --> 00:35:33,120
Speaker 1: This is why you want an asset that's outside the state.

573
00:35:33,920 --> 00:35:37,480
Speaker 1: But again this sort of misses the point. The reason

574
00:35:37,600 --> 00:35:42,919
Speaker 1: we have assets based on state isstruance, meaning cash and treasuries,

575
00:35:44,080 --> 00:35:48,040
Speaker 1: is because only the state can guarantee things. And in fact,

576
00:35:48,120 --> 00:35:53,000
Speaker 1: I think whatever happened that at the crypto fest that

577
00:35:53,120 --> 00:36:00,759
Speaker 1: you went to in Florida. Um, the the future for

578
00:36:00,800 --> 00:36:04,520
Speaker 1: these these currencies is not very good because in the

579
00:36:04,600 --> 00:36:07,759
Speaker 1: kind of situation we're in, they're going to be confronted

580
00:36:07,840 --> 00:36:13,040
Speaker 1: with either you're adhering to the sanctions that we're putting

581
00:36:13,040 --> 00:36:16,919
Speaker 1: on banks in other places to make sure that your

582
00:36:17,160 --> 00:36:21,719
Speaker 1: your fake burreency doesn't become a way to avoid sanctions.

583
00:36:22,120 --> 00:36:25,560
Speaker 1: And if the firms agree to that, then they lose

584
00:36:25,600 --> 00:36:29,520
Speaker 1: some of their appeal to the libertarian nut jobs. UM.

585
00:36:30,200 --> 00:36:33,239
Speaker 1: And on the other hand, if they don't agree to that,

586
00:36:33,320 --> 00:36:37,399
Speaker 1: then they're basically violating sanctions that are subject to criminal prosecution.

587
00:36:38,160 --> 00:36:41,200
Speaker 1: So you know, it may or may not kill them.

588
00:36:41,320 --> 00:36:45,160
Speaker 1: But if I were sitting in I don't mean the individuals,

589
00:36:45,160 --> 00:36:48,120
Speaker 1: I mean these current these fake currencies, UM. If I

590
00:36:48,200 --> 00:36:51,200
Speaker 1: were sitting in of a regulatory seat in the UTH

591
00:36:51,280 --> 00:36:53,719
Speaker 1: government right now. I would be using this as my

592
00:36:53,800 --> 00:36:59,400
Speaker 1: excuse to force as many of these these entities to

593
00:36:59,560 --> 00:37:02,160
Speaker 1: choose one side or the other. And anybody who chooses

594
00:37:02,200 --> 00:37:04,000
Speaker 1: to say I'm not going to come slide with sanction

595
00:37:04,320 --> 00:37:08,480
Speaker 1: but um, so you know, so then comes what do

596
00:37:08,600 --> 00:37:10,480
Speaker 1: you what else are you gonna put your money? And

597
00:37:10,480 --> 00:37:13,040
Speaker 1: then so you're gonna end up. You know. I think

598
00:37:13,080 --> 00:37:16,239
Speaker 1: the euro potentially is a big winner from this process.

599
00:37:17,320 --> 00:37:20,880
Speaker 1: UM and the more Europe acts and concert and and

600
00:37:21,160 --> 00:37:25,200
Speaker 1: the issues, they have a real opportunity to issue euro bonds.

601
00:37:25,840 --> 00:37:30,200
Speaker 1: There's an alternative safe asset to the US UM to

602
00:37:30,360 --> 00:37:33,239
Speaker 1: the dollar, and and there would be huge demand for

603
00:37:33,360 --> 00:37:38,880
Speaker 1: that UM. But besides Europe, I don't see any other

604
00:37:39,040 --> 00:37:43,560
Speaker 1: new asset classes that will will be able to retain

605
00:37:45,440 --> 00:37:49,640
Speaker 1: all the attributes you want, which is liquidity, property rights,

606
00:37:50,280 --> 00:37:54,719
Speaker 1: and wide acceptance. Mike, just to catch catch our listeners up,

607
00:37:55,920 --> 00:37:58,520
Speaker 1: Adam is referring to the cryptoconference that I'm attending this

608
00:37:58,560 --> 00:38:03,160
Speaker 1: week in Miami. Yeah, Gildana is surrounded by that what

609
00:38:03,239 --> 00:38:07,480
Speaker 1: Adam called the unholy breed of techno bros and libertarians.

610
00:38:07,719 --> 00:38:09,719
Speaker 1: But that I hope you run it a Lambeau for

611
00:38:09,760 --> 00:38:12,000
Speaker 1: the week. You could put that on the expense account

612
00:38:12,040 --> 00:38:16,040
Speaker 1: rental Lambeau. You think, I think we should, I'll do it.

613
00:38:16,160 --> 00:38:18,040
Speaker 1: We should fly Adam down to sit in the back

614
00:38:18,040 --> 00:38:19,239
Speaker 1: seat of the Lamb but I'm not sure they have

615
00:38:19,320 --> 00:38:21,160
Speaker 1: back seats actually, but he could sit in the Lambeau

616
00:38:21,160 --> 00:38:24,240
Speaker 1: and you could, you know, give rides to techno bros.

617
00:38:24,280 --> 00:38:27,920
Speaker 1: And have Adam. That would be a good would be

618
00:38:27,920 --> 00:38:31,719
Speaker 1: a good separate, separate podcast. I I wanted to ask

619
00:38:31,760 --> 00:38:37,799
Speaker 1: you a little bit about Um Peterson's relationship with the

620
00:38:37,840 --> 00:38:40,600
Speaker 1: government there in d c UM and the White House.

621
00:38:41,040 --> 00:38:43,719
Speaker 1: From what I read, you know, uh, you know Peterson. Obviously,

622
00:38:44,320 --> 00:38:46,800
Speaker 1: to me, it sounds like you try to take a nonpartisan,

623
00:38:46,920 --> 00:38:53,080
Speaker 1: sort of objective approach to things, UM. And you've formerly

624
00:38:53,080 --> 00:38:57,040
Speaker 1: had a dialogue with both Republican and Democratic administrations, you know,

625
00:38:57,040 --> 00:39:00,640
Speaker 1: the Bush administration, the Clinton administration. UM, it sounds to

626
00:39:00,680 --> 00:39:02,920
Speaker 1: me like that all sort of ended with the Trump

627
00:39:02,920 --> 00:39:05,640
Speaker 1: administration and correct me and if I'm wrong about that,

628
00:39:05,719 --> 00:39:08,440
Speaker 1: But I'm curious, what's it What is it like now?

629
00:39:08,560 --> 00:39:12,959
Speaker 1: Is there again sort of a dialogue with a Biden administration?

630
00:39:13,080 --> 00:39:15,680
Speaker 1: And if you know, you've got five minutes with Joe Biden,

631
00:39:15,719 --> 00:39:17,279
Speaker 1: what would sort of be your advice to him right

632
00:39:17,320 --> 00:39:21,040
Speaker 1: now with this this economic situation very clear, I do

633
00:39:21,160 --> 00:39:25,640
Speaker 1: not have access to the president, and uh it is

634
00:39:25,760 --> 00:39:28,600
Speaker 1: very rare in my career that I have had access

635
00:39:28,640 --> 00:39:34,880
Speaker 1: to President may be president. Um. But we are generally,

636
00:39:35,080 --> 00:39:39,400
Speaker 1: with the exception of the Trump years, seen as people

637
00:39:39,640 --> 00:39:43,040
Speaker 1: who honestly are trying to make a difference on policy,

638
00:39:43,239 --> 00:39:48,480
Speaker 1: people whose views broadly are worth considering. Even if it

639
00:39:48,600 --> 00:39:53,200
Speaker 1: turns out that we uh might disagree on some things

640
00:39:53,400 --> 00:39:56,040
Speaker 1: that people who are evidence based, and therefore, as a

641
00:39:56,040 --> 00:39:59,640
Speaker 1: result of all that, people are reasonably influential in certain spheres.

642
00:40:00,560 --> 00:40:03,040
Speaker 1: And I mean that's the goal of being a think tank,

643
00:40:03,120 --> 00:40:07,040
Speaker 1: to be seen as in line with your values, honestly

644
00:40:07,120 --> 00:40:12,080
Speaker 1: making arguments that the policymakers should consider. And um. And

645
00:40:12,120 --> 00:40:15,600
Speaker 1: occasionally you get residents and you're able to get them

646
00:40:15,600 --> 00:40:19,279
Speaker 1: to do things you want them to do, com persuade

647
00:40:19,320 --> 00:40:23,880
Speaker 1: them that they should do it. So under the Trump administration,

648
00:40:24,000 --> 00:40:27,640
Speaker 1: like people in all kinds of fields and areas, you

649
00:40:27,640 --> 00:40:31,000
Speaker 1: know it was your political enemy. You disagree with us,

650
00:40:31,040 --> 00:40:34,760
Speaker 1: therefore we're gonna say nasty things about you. I'm grateful

651
00:40:34,800 --> 00:40:38,799
Speaker 1: and glad we never got horribly attacked. We never got

652
00:40:38,600 --> 00:40:42,880
Speaker 1: that by you know, some some flash mob either on

653
00:40:42,920 --> 00:40:46,960
Speaker 1: the Internet or in general, that the Trump associated people

654
00:40:47,160 --> 00:40:49,359
Speaker 1: have been known to sit on people they don't like.

655
00:40:49,560 --> 00:40:53,120
Speaker 1: We've been fortunate that way. But you know, we essentially,

656
00:40:53,360 --> 00:40:57,640
Speaker 1: with the exception of people at the Council of econocguisers,

657
00:40:58,400 --> 00:41:02,880
Speaker 1: we essentially had no contact with senior officials in the

658
00:41:03,280 --> 00:41:08,040
Speaker 1: Trump aministration in the forty years of the institute's existence

659
00:41:08,120 --> 00:41:13,200
Speaker 1: or thirty five years prior to that. UM, we had

660
00:41:13,320 --> 00:41:19,640
Speaker 1: varying degrees of influence, but we always were in conversation. UM.

661
00:41:19,760 --> 00:41:24,200
Speaker 1: We were in conversation constructively with people in the first

662
00:41:24,200 --> 00:41:29,280
Speaker 1: Bush administration, very actively in conversation with and hope helpful

663
00:41:29,320 --> 00:41:32,920
Speaker 1: I think to people in the Plan administration. We continued

664
00:41:33,040 --> 00:41:37,920
Speaker 1: that in the second Bush administration. We continued that in

665
00:41:37,960 --> 00:41:42,080
Speaker 1: the Obama administration. So then you get to the Biding administration,

666
00:41:42,320 --> 00:41:45,279
Speaker 1: and you know, it's like again, like everybody else, nothing

667
00:41:45,400 --> 00:41:48,200
Speaker 1: special to us. The Bid administration respects will of law,

668
00:41:48,640 --> 00:41:52,360
Speaker 1: and respects the idea that people can disagree, and respects

669
00:41:52,360 --> 00:41:54,680
Speaker 1: that you should try to do the best thing in government,

670
00:41:54,800 --> 00:41:56,839
Speaker 1: and whatever else you think of the Buying administration, those

671
00:41:56,880 --> 00:42:00,160
Speaker 1: three things are very true and are good things. So

672
00:42:00,400 --> 00:42:05,200
Speaker 1: we do have some resumption of normal interaction with senior

673
00:42:05,280 --> 00:42:12,000
Speaker 1: officials in the administration. But big but um the administration,

674
00:42:12,040 --> 00:42:14,799
Speaker 1: including some people I know well personally and have spoken to,

675
00:42:15,480 --> 00:42:18,280
Speaker 1: is in I think, a very different and wrong position

676
00:42:18,320 --> 00:42:20,080
Speaker 1: on a lot of trade issues and a lot of

677
00:42:20,080 --> 00:42:26,600
Speaker 1: globalization related issues. And they believe that people like us

678
00:42:26,640 --> 00:42:29,759
Speaker 1: and some of our current staff and affiliates who were

679
00:42:30,760 --> 00:42:35,520
Speaker 1: officials in the Clinton and Obama administrations were equally as

680
00:42:35,560 --> 00:42:39,440
Speaker 1: wrong in their approach to trade and globalization, and that

681
00:42:39,520 --> 00:42:43,560
Speaker 1: it's politically and economically important to put that aside. So

682
00:42:45,040 --> 00:42:49,080
Speaker 1: we are agreed to disagree, and we don't have anywhere

683
00:42:49,120 --> 00:42:52,919
Speaker 1: near as much interaction with the people on the same

684
00:42:53,000 --> 00:42:55,520
Speaker 1: trade side of the administration as we do with people

685
00:42:55,600 --> 00:43:00,879
Speaker 1: on the finance macroeconomic side administration. That's fair, I mean,

686
00:43:00,920 --> 00:43:03,840
Speaker 1: that's very different from being shut out and people denying

687
00:43:03,920 --> 00:43:07,879
Speaker 1: what you say. But I wish we had a bit

688
00:43:07,920 --> 00:43:13,319
Speaker 1: more opportunity to persuade some of our colleagues in the

689
00:43:13,360 --> 00:43:18,879
Speaker 1: Biden administration that where they're essentially continuing Trump administration policies

690
00:43:19,520 --> 00:43:24,200
Speaker 1: on immigration, on trade, on foreign direct investment, they're making

691
00:43:24,200 --> 00:43:30,080
Speaker 1: a mistakes in terms of globalization in this scenario that

692
00:43:30,840 --> 00:43:34,080
Speaker 1: we've been talking about about the corrosion of globalization. I

693
00:43:34,080 --> 00:43:37,160
Speaker 1: actually wanted to ask if what the upsides are to this,

694
00:43:37,239 --> 00:43:40,640
Speaker 1: because I heard an interview recently with a Washington Post

695
00:43:40,640 --> 00:43:44,160
Speaker 1: reporter who actually was talking in response to one of

696
00:43:44,200 --> 00:43:49,000
Speaker 1: your recent articles, and she was going over everything we've

697
00:43:49,040 --> 00:43:51,120
Speaker 1: just been talking about, but she was saying that there

698
00:43:51,200 --> 00:43:56,000
Speaker 1: is potentially some upside and that, for instance, millennials are

699
00:43:56,120 --> 00:43:59,279
Speaker 1: welcoming to some of the aspects of some of the

700
00:43:59,360 --> 00:44:03,719
Speaker 1: changes that we see, including maybe better workplace practices and

701
00:44:03,960 --> 00:44:05,480
Speaker 1: that type of things. So I want to ask what

702
00:44:05,560 --> 00:44:09,160
Speaker 1: some of these maybe more positive developments might be yes

703
00:44:09,280 --> 00:44:12,680
Speaker 1: and and there. For example, I frankly agree with a

704
00:44:12,719 --> 00:44:14,960
Speaker 1: lot of the things the bid administration has wanted to do,

705
00:44:15,080 --> 00:44:17,520
Speaker 1: even though they didn't get through Congress yet a lot

706
00:44:17,560 --> 00:44:19,920
Speaker 1: of them, um, and I agree with a lot of

707
00:44:20,080 --> 00:44:25,440
Speaker 1: things they're doing on executive order basis. Well. The sad

708
00:44:25,600 --> 00:44:30,040
Speaker 1: fact is that the US treats its workers worse than

709
00:44:30,080 --> 00:44:34,080
Speaker 1: any other high income democracy, at least in economic terms.

710
00:44:34,160 --> 00:44:37,360
Speaker 1: We we we give a lower shar of the economy

711
00:44:37,520 --> 00:44:40,560
Speaker 1: to labor wages as supposed to capital. We do not

712
00:44:40,719 --> 00:44:45,360
Speaker 1: provide universal health insurance. We do not provide universal higher education.

713
00:44:45,480 --> 00:44:48,919
Speaker 1: We do not provide high quality education. We don't even

714
00:44:48,960 --> 00:44:54,279
Speaker 1: provide water. It's drinkable in some places. And even in

715
00:44:54,400 --> 00:44:57,960
Speaker 1: countries that are far behind US in perr capita income,

716
00:44:58,040 --> 00:45:02,520
Speaker 1: they mostly do provide all those things additionally at some

717
00:45:02,719 --> 00:45:06,200
Speaker 1: economic costs, but I think justifiably and not at huge

718
00:45:06,239 --> 00:45:13,320
Speaker 1: economic cost. These countries have more labor regulation that protect workers. Um,

719
00:45:13,480 --> 00:45:17,719
Speaker 1: they protect them more from abuse by by their employers,

720
00:45:17,760 --> 00:45:22,520
Speaker 1: they protect them more from uh, what happens since they

721
00:45:22,520 --> 00:45:25,319
Speaker 1: get unemployed, to protect them more in terms of health

722
00:45:25,360 --> 00:45:29,239
Speaker 1: and safety. You know, the US is totally behind, in

723
00:45:29,320 --> 00:45:33,040
Speaker 1: my view, on all these things, and you could move

724
00:45:33,120 --> 00:45:37,719
Speaker 1: the US along way in that direction before getting anywhere

725
00:45:38,000 --> 00:45:44,640
Speaker 1: close to where the economic costs become large versus what

726
00:45:44,760 --> 00:45:51,000
Speaker 1: you're doing to help. And the Biden administration has heard people,

727
00:45:51,320 --> 00:45:55,279
Speaker 1: including the current nominee for the Federalers or Board of Governors,

728
00:45:55,640 --> 00:46:01,120
Speaker 1: Lisa from Michigan State University, pointing out that lost it's

729
00:46:01,160 --> 00:46:04,320
Speaker 1: not only that, it's not only unfair, but you're leaving

730
00:46:04,320 --> 00:46:06,000
Speaker 1: money on the table in the sense of all this

731
00:46:06,200 --> 00:46:09,399
Speaker 1: talent long women among people of color, that you're not

732
00:46:09,440 --> 00:46:13,880
Speaker 1: fully developing and using, and I think that's undeniable. And

733
00:46:13,960 --> 00:46:19,640
Speaker 1: although on that issue, uh, we're no less, we're bad,

734
00:46:19,719 --> 00:46:22,640
Speaker 1: but the differential between our badness and you say European

735
00:46:22,719 --> 00:46:26,960
Speaker 1: badness is just great. Um. So hopefinitely, Donald. When you

736
00:46:27,000 --> 00:46:30,360
Speaker 1: talk about the younger people and what they want, you know,

737
00:46:30,520 --> 00:46:31,960
Speaker 1: I think it would be a great thing if we

738
00:46:32,040 --> 00:46:36,719
Speaker 1: got more political pressure for that, uh, that including the

739
00:46:36,760 --> 00:46:40,160
Speaker 1: major acts to make it easier to unionize. That including

740
00:46:40,239 --> 00:46:43,959
Speaker 1: much higher health and safety standards, which to me would

741
00:46:43,960 --> 00:46:50,120
Speaker 1: be a very logical conclusion of the COVID experience. Um.

742
00:46:50,239 --> 00:46:54,080
Speaker 1: The removal and a free market way of some of

743
00:46:54,120 --> 00:46:58,640
Speaker 1: these restrictions state by state about what your qualifications are.

744
00:46:58,840 --> 00:47:02,760
Speaker 1: The removal of some of these terrible non compete agreements

745
00:47:02,840 --> 00:47:08,280
Speaker 1: or nondisclosure agreements. Said, workers in very you know, non

746
00:47:08,320 --> 00:47:13,200
Speaker 1: technical jobs or not like fancy consultants still get constrained

747
00:47:13,239 --> 00:47:16,200
Speaker 1: so that they can't change jobs easily. There's a lot

748
00:47:16,239 --> 00:47:19,680
Speaker 1: of stuff. A colleague of ours at Peterson who's primarily

749
00:47:19,760 --> 00:47:22,799
Speaker 1: at m IG Sloan School, Anna Stansbury, has done some

750
00:47:23,080 --> 00:47:26,799
Speaker 1: very powerful work saying, you know, you can raise them

751
00:47:26,840 --> 00:47:28,920
Speaker 1: in on wage, but even before you do that, you

752
00:47:29,000 --> 00:47:32,799
Speaker 1: got to make sure the workers can force employers to

753
00:47:32,800 --> 00:47:37,080
Speaker 1: actually pay them in a wage, have to enforce it. Um.

754
00:47:37,680 --> 00:47:41,000
Speaker 1: There's a whole agenda to be done, and it is

755
00:47:41,239 --> 00:47:45,239
Speaker 1: very worthwhile to keep asking the obvious question. You know,

756
00:47:46,480 --> 00:47:51,560
Speaker 1: if Germany and France, and England and Australia and Canada,

757
00:47:53,160 --> 00:47:57,080
Speaker 1: for that matter, even Spain and Portugal, you know, manage

758
00:47:57,080 --> 00:47:59,480
Speaker 1: to provide all this for the workers and their economies,

759
00:47:59,520 --> 00:48:05,680
Speaker 1: don't pray eater, why don't we? Yep? Absolutely well. But

760
00:48:05,880 --> 00:48:09,239
Speaker 1: I will say there's one aspect of this podcast where

761
00:48:09,239 --> 00:48:12,480
Speaker 1: globalization is very very very important, you know, or you

762
00:48:12,480 --> 00:48:17,280
Speaker 1: know what I mean. The craziest, weirdest thing, the craziest

763
00:48:17,320 --> 00:48:19,920
Speaker 1: things we saw this week. I've got a special global

764
00:48:20,040 --> 00:48:25,919
Speaker 1: crazy thing for Adam. But first let's let's hear yours first. Well,

765
00:48:25,920 --> 00:48:28,440
Speaker 1: I'm going to go with something that I've been seeing

766
00:48:28,600 --> 00:48:33,399
Speaker 1: at the bit coin Miami conference this week, and there's

767
00:48:33,400 --> 00:48:36,880
Speaker 1: a couple of sort of uh, you know, attention grabbing

768
00:48:37,239 --> 00:48:40,880
Speaker 1: things that have been happening. One is that the Mayor

769
00:48:40,920 --> 00:48:45,560
Speaker 1: of Miami unveiled a statue of a of a It

770
00:48:45,600 --> 00:48:48,760
Speaker 1: looks very much like the charging bull statue on Wall Street,

771
00:48:49,000 --> 00:48:52,640
Speaker 1: except this one is more uh, I don't know it

772
00:48:52,680 --> 00:48:56,200
Speaker 1: sort of looks like a transformer. It has laser eyes

773
00:48:56,400 --> 00:49:00,719
Speaker 1: and it's meant to speak to the crypto crowd. And

774
00:49:00,760 --> 00:49:04,040
Speaker 1: then just hearing some of the panels and some of

775
00:49:04,040 --> 00:49:08,319
Speaker 1: the speeches. Mike Novograts who is you know, he's the

776
00:49:08,320 --> 00:49:11,680
Speaker 1: CEO of Galaxy Digital. He came out and he said

777
00:49:11,680 --> 00:49:14,440
Speaker 1: he could see the quin going to a million dollars

778
00:49:14,520 --> 00:49:18,840
Speaker 1: eventually a million dollars per coin, so that he doesn't

779
00:49:18,880 --> 00:49:27,239
Speaker 1: own any of that interests interest, no pually effective analysis there,

780
00:49:31,800 --> 00:49:35,080
Speaker 1: I'm sure filled outa your conference is uh, there's an

781
00:49:35,080 --> 00:49:37,440
Speaker 1: abundance of crazy things. Well to well to wrap them

782
00:49:37,520 --> 00:49:40,080
Speaker 1: up all the ones you saw next week too, because

783
00:49:40,200 --> 00:49:43,479
Speaker 1: I think you're there or something. Yeah, how about you, Adam,

784
00:49:43,480 --> 00:49:47,239
Speaker 1: have you seen anything crazy this week? Yeah, there's a

785
00:49:47,400 --> 00:49:50,880
Speaker 1: kind of crazy stuff out there obviously. Um. To me,

786
00:49:51,120 --> 00:49:58,120
Speaker 1: the craziest thing is I is the disjunction between currency

787
00:49:58,239 --> 00:50:02,640
Speaker 1: movements and reality. So you know, Turkeys there, they've got

788
00:50:02,680 --> 00:50:06,960
Speaker 1: I think a six annualized inflation rate at the moment,

789
00:50:06,960 --> 00:50:10,520
Speaker 1: which is a lot, and yet somehow are no I'm

790
00:50:10,560 --> 00:50:15,120
Speaker 1: still going and the Turkish lira hasn't gone to zero. Similarly,

791
00:50:15,160 --> 00:50:17,840
Speaker 1: I'm happy to be in London at the moment, and

792
00:50:17,880 --> 00:50:20,040
Speaker 1: I love London. As you mentioned, I used to work

793
00:50:20,040 --> 00:50:22,800
Speaker 1: at Bank going on as a PC member for a while.

794
00:50:23,760 --> 00:50:26,680
Speaker 1: But you know, I look at Briggs that, I look

795
00:50:26,719 --> 00:50:29,680
Speaker 1: at how badly the U K is in terms of

796
00:50:29,800 --> 00:50:34,239
Speaker 1: labor supply and energy supply and market opportunities, and I'm like,

797
00:50:34,400 --> 00:50:39,239
Speaker 1: why the hell is the pound up and stopped? They've

798
00:50:39,239 --> 00:50:42,479
Speaker 1: stopped supposedly taking money from Russian all of arts, so

799
00:50:42,960 --> 00:50:45,240
Speaker 1: I really don't know what's keeping the pound up anyway,

800
00:50:45,280 --> 00:50:50,239
Speaker 1: those are the things i'd be looking at. That's pretty good.

801
00:50:50,280 --> 00:50:52,880
Speaker 1: That's pretty good. And now I've read the rule is

802
00:50:53,239 --> 00:50:55,799
Speaker 1: back to where it was before the word begin Yeah,

803
00:50:56,040 --> 00:50:58,560
Speaker 1: I mean that I just have to be very clear

804
00:50:58,680 --> 00:51:02,239
Speaker 1: that the you know, as far as we can understand it.

805
00:51:02,280 --> 00:51:04,919
Speaker 1: And I callague something coming out of this. That's because

806
00:51:04,960 --> 00:51:10,799
Speaker 1: there's no actual the number is whatever. It's a it's

807
00:51:10,840 --> 00:51:13,000
Speaker 1: a print on the screen, not not a true. Uh

808
00:51:13,560 --> 00:51:17,320
Speaker 1: not a true. I well, Adam, I'm going to leverage

809
00:51:18,080 --> 00:51:21,680
Speaker 1: your Bank of England experience for my crazy thing because

810
00:51:21,760 --> 00:51:23,640
Speaker 1: and correct me if I'm wrong. But I picture when

811
00:51:23,719 --> 00:51:28,480
Speaker 1: Bank of England policymakers get together that about of the

812
00:51:28,520 --> 00:51:32,719
Speaker 1: discussion is official business, and then the other is all

813
00:51:32,719 --> 00:51:36,720
Speaker 1: about soccer. Is that Is that a good ratio, you think, Bradley,

814
00:51:36,719 --> 00:51:42,120
Speaker 1: It's all about cricket, which I even understand. All right,

815
00:51:42,200 --> 00:51:46,440
Speaker 1: I'm sure there's some football. I'm sure there's some football.

816
00:51:47,920 --> 00:51:51,680
Speaker 1: Now there's some but all right, well, what a cricket

817
00:51:51,719 --> 00:51:55,040
Speaker 1: crazy thing next next week. But in this week one

818
00:51:55,040 --> 00:51:59,200
Speaker 1: of the most rage inducing incidents in international football for

819
00:52:00,320 --> 00:52:03,960
Speaker 1: fans of the English side was in Night six quarterfinal

820
00:52:04,600 --> 00:52:10,400
Speaker 1: World Cup game. Uh. England was playing Argentina, which had

821
00:52:10,520 --> 00:52:13,120
Speaker 1: the famous player Diego Maradonna. I've actually talked about this

822
00:52:13,160 --> 00:52:17,160
Speaker 1: on the podcast before, but Maradonna scored in that game

823
00:52:17,200 --> 00:52:20,000
Speaker 1: what's known as the hand of God goal, because he

824
00:52:20,360 --> 00:52:23,400
Speaker 1: went up for a header and it went in and

825
00:52:23,440 --> 00:52:26,920
Speaker 1: the refs didn't notice that he had used his hand, uh,

826
00:52:27,520 --> 00:52:30,000
Speaker 1: but all the photographers caught it. The replay showed it.

827
00:52:30,400 --> 00:52:33,799
Speaker 1: In England fans were outraged, but the goal went in

828
00:52:33,800 --> 00:52:36,160
Speaker 1: the books and they asked him afterward, they said, well,

829
00:52:36,200 --> 00:52:39,880
Speaker 1: how did you score that goal? Wasn't it a handball? Actually?

830
00:52:40,320 --> 00:52:41,759
Speaker 1: And he said, as a little bit of the head

831
00:52:41,800 --> 00:52:44,439
Speaker 1: of Diego Maradodonna and a little bit of the hand

832
00:52:44,440 --> 00:52:48,000
Speaker 1: of God. That was so famously became known as the

833
00:52:48,040 --> 00:52:51,000
Speaker 1: hand of God goal. He scored a second goal in

834
00:52:51,040 --> 00:52:53,440
Speaker 1: that game that was much more impressive. He charged like

835
00:52:54,160 --> 00:52:57,480
Speaker 1: sixty yards straight ahead. Um and all the defenders were

836
00:52:57,480 --> 00:52:59,799
Speaker 1: expecting him to fake left or right and they kind

837
00:52:59,800 --> 00:53:03,440
Speaker 1: of dumbled over themselves, but he charged straight ahead. And

838
00:53:03,560 --> 00:53:07,280
Speaker 1: Mervin King, the former head of the Banquette of England,

839
00:53:07,280 --> 00:53:10,360
Speaker 1: actually referenced that in a speech one time, saying, you know,

840
00:53:10,480 --> 00:53:13,480
Speaker 1: policy can work the same way the markets expecting us

841
00:53:13,480 --> 00:53:16,239
Speaker 1: to go to negative rates, and that alone is influencing

842
00:53:16,680 --> 00:53:20,000
Speaker 1: the markets. Um uh, so that we don't have to

843
00:53:20,040 --> 00:53:24,640
Speaker 1: actually go there. So a famous goal, albeit a very

844
00:53:24,680 --> 00:53:28,279
Speaker 1: bittersweet defeat for England. Now how do we get this

845
00:53:28,360 --> 00:53:33,120
Speaker 1: to the craziest thing? The jersey Baradonna wore for that

846
00:53:33,160 --> 00:53:38,360
Speaker 1: game is up for auction at South of Eyes. Um

847
00:53:38,440 --> 00:53:40,640
Speaker 1: and let me, I'd like to keep us a poker

848
00:53:40,680 --> 00:53:43,200
Speaker 1: face when I tell you about these things. Um So,

849
00:53:43,280 --> 00:53:45,600
Speaker 1: I'm not going to sort of hint at what the

850
00:53:45,800 --> 00:53:48,080
Speaker 1: uh what the value of this is, but I will

851
00:53:48,080 --> 00:53:52,160
Speaker 1: read one quote from the auction house and they call

852
00:53:52,239 --> 00:53:56,160
Speaker 1: this the moment is iconic in the history of sports.

853
00:53:56,440 --> 00:53:59,360
Speaker 1: They're going to say this shart is on a small

854
00:53:59,400 --> 00:54:03,000
Speaker 1: list of the most important sports memorabilia items in the world.

855
00:54:03,680 --> 00:54:07,000
Speaker 1: So Maradonna's shirt where he were the hand of God,

856
00:54:07,440 --> 00:54:09,640
Speaker 1: he were during the hand of God, gold and what's

857
00:54:09,680 --> 00:54:12,080
Speaker 1: called the goal of century, the second goal he scores

858
00:54:12,160 --> 00:54:15,080
Speaker 1: up for auction, Bildana, what do you think SOBS is

859
00:54:15,120 --> 00:54:18,760
Speaker 1: expecting for this jersey? I'm going with a hundred twenty

860
00:54:18,880 --> 00:54:22,920
Speaker 1: thousand dollars? Hundred twenty dollars? What do you think, Adam?

861
00:54:23,320 --> 00:54:26,080
Speaker 1: If this were prices right? Uh? What you what would

862
00:54:26,080 --> 00:54:30,880
Speaker 1: you bid for the Maradonna jersey? Thunder fifty million rubles?

863
00:54:36,600 --> 00:54:38,800
Speaker 1: I got to break out the currency translator to figure

864
00:54:38,800 --> 00:54:41,320
Speaker 1: out how much that is worth. I think you're probably

865
00:54:41,360 --> 00:54:45,080
Speaker 1: closer though. Four million dollars five points too. I'm sorry,

866
00:54:45,120 --> 00:54:49,480
Speaker 1: four million pounds five points two million US dollars they

867
00:54:49,520 --> 00:54:53,719
Speaker 1: expect for this, and let's study. English soccer fans get

868
00:54:53,760 --> 00:54:56,600
Speaker 1: outraged to me for even bringing up this episode. I

869
00:54:56,640 --> 00:54:58,640
Speaker 1: want to point out that this may have been the

870
00:54:58,640 --> 00:55:02,240
Speaker 1: goal of the century, but that shirt is the trade

871
00:55:02,239 --> 00:55:04,080
Speaker 1: of the century because at the end of the game,

872
00:55:04,400 --> 00:55:09,840
Speaker 1: Maradonna swaps jerseys with the English midfielder Steve Hodge, and

873
00:55:09,920 --> 00:55:12,400
Speaker 1: he's kept that jersey this whole time. And now is

874
00:55:12,440 --> 00:55:18,200
Speaker 1: this deciding to deciding to put it off. So I'm

875
00:55:18,239 --> 00:55:20,440
Speaker 1: shocked by this. Baradonna had the goal of the century.

876
00:55:20,440 --> 00:55:23,319
Speaker 1: I think Steve Hodge has the trade of the century.

877
00:55:23,440 --> 00:55:28,400
Speaker 1: Uh so, I'm quite sure the shirt he gave he

878
00:55:28,600 --> 00:55:32,440
Speaker 1: gave a Manadonna is not having that resale. It's probably

879
00:55:32,480 --> 00:55:34,880
Speaker 1: not having that resell. I would agree. I would agree.

880
00:55:35,360 --> 00:55:39,040
Speaker 1: But my prediction is some some London bloke is going

881
00:55:39,080 --> 00:55:40,759
Speaker 1: to buy this thing and set fire to it in

882
00:55:41,160 --> 00:55:45,680
Speaker 1: the middle of London. It's a prediction actually, and turn

883
00:55:45,760 --> 00:55:48,800
Speaker 1: it into an n f T. If you set it

884
00:55:48,840 --> 00:55:50,279
Speaker 1: on fire, you have to turn it into an n

885
00:55:50,320 --> 00:55:52,880
Speaker 1: f T. It did you get you two bites at

886
00:55:52,880 --> 00:55:59,160
Speaker 1: the Apple, Adam posing It was a real treat to

887
00:55:59,200 --> 00:56:02,560
Speaker 1: hear your thoughts. Um, just absolutely perfect timing to have

888
00:56:03,000 --> 00:56:05,400
Speaker 1: a guy like you on and share their insight with us.

889
00:56:05,440 --> 00:56:07,719
Speaker 1: We really appreciate it, and hopefully we can bring you

890
00:56:07,719 --> 00:56:10,120
Speaker 1: back some day in the future. That'd be great. Thank

891
00:56:10,160 --> 00:56:12,240
Speaker 1: you so much for having me. I enjoy your podcast

892
00:56:12,320 --> 00:56:23,480
Speaker 1: and I appreciate getting partaking the fun. Thanks, thank you, Adam.

893
00:56:23,520 --> 00:56:25,920
Speaker 1: What goes up? We'll be back next week. Until then,

894
00:56:25,920 --> 00:56:28,359
Speaker 1: you can find us on the Bloomberg terminal, website and

895
00:56:28,480 --> 00:56:31,759
Speaker 1: app wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find

896
00:56:31,800 --> 00:56:35,080
Speaker 1: us on Twitter, follow me at Ring Anonymous, Balbata Hirich

897
00:56:35,360 --> 00:56:39,239
Speaker 1: is at Bobana Hirich. You can also follow Bloomberg Podcasts

898
00:56:39,280 --> 00:56:42,000
Speaker 1: at podcasts. We'd love it if you took the time

899
00:56:42,000 --> 00:56:44,640
Speaker 1: to rate and review the show on Apple Podcasts so

900
00:56:44,719 --> 00:56:47,840
Speaker 1: more listeners can find us. What Goes Up is produced

901
00:56:47,840 --> 00:56:51,360
Speaker 1: by Magnus Hendrickson and Stacy Wong. The head of Bloomberg

902
00:56:51,400 --> 00:56:54,560
Speaker 1: Podcast is Francesco Leavy. Thanks for listening, See you next

903
00:56:54,560 --> 00:57:08,600
Speaker 1: time than before.