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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch Just Live weekdays at

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Speaker 1: noon Eastern on Apple car Play and then Roudoo with

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Speaker 1: your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: A Monday edition of Balance of Power with his Eyes

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Speaker 2: on the Markets for us, I'm Joe Matthew alongside Kaylee

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Speaker 2: Lines in Washington and glad you're with us here as

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Speaker 2: we count down to a possible government shutdown a week

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Speaker 2: from today, and of course an election that is six

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Speaker 2: weeks from tomorrow. Kayley, these countdown clocks are starting to

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Speaker 2: bring some anxiety, so all of us watching this as

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Speaker 2: we bring the element of crypto back to the conversation. Now,

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Speaker 2: we mentioned already that both presidential candidates Kamala Harris and

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Speaker 2: Donald Trump this week are going to be making big

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Speaker 2: economic policy speeches one tomorrow, Donald Trump and George A Wednesday,

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Speaker 2: Kamala Harris in Pittsburgh. It's that Wednesday address.

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Speaker 1: Kaylee.

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Speaker 2: I'm curious if we hear about crypto because she was

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Speaker 2: talking about it over the weekend, got a lot of

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Speaker 2: people pretty optimistic about the idea of both candidates embracing this.

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Speaker 3: Yeah.

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Speaker 4: Well, this is the first time we've heard her speak

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Speaker 4: about crypto so directly, but it still was kind of

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Speaker 4: broad stroke. She talked about it being an innovative technology,

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Speaker 4: liking in it to AIII and digital assets is what

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Speaker 4: she mentioned while protecting consumers and investors. So this isn't

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Speaker 4: necessarily a pledge like Donald Trump has delivered to get

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Speaker 4: rid of the current SEC Chair Gary Gainstlard. It's not

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Speaker 4: even necessarily a promise to sign crypto market structure of

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Speaker 4: legislation into law, for example, like the FIT twenty one

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Speaker 4: bill that passed the House earlier this Congress. But it

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Speaker 4: at least opens a door, and judging by the early

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Speaker 4: reaction from the industry, they'll take this over nothing at all.

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Speaker 2: Well, that's absolutely right, and we wanted to talk to

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Speaker 2: somebody who had a bit of sensitivity to.

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Speaker 3: The issue of crypto.

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Speaker 2: And while we're at at North Carolina, Kaylee, because there's

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Speaker 2: a big going on there right now too.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, and we're going to get into all of it

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Speaker 4: now with Congressman Wiley Nicol, the Democrat from North Carolina.

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Speaker 4: Pleased to see you back here on Bloomberg TV and radio. Congressmen,

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Speaker 4: of course, you sit on the Financial Services Committee and

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Speaker 4: you are a passionate advocate for crypto on Capitol Hill.

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Speaker 4: So my question to you is, I know you liked

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Speaker 4: what you heard from Kamala Harris over the weekend, but

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Speaker 4: does she not need to go further get more specific

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Speaker 4: as Donald Trump has been pretty specific about some of

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Speaker 4: his pledges, including the fact that he wouldn't like Kenseler

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Speaker 4: helming the SEC anymore.

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Speaker 5: Well, you know, I want to say I certainly I

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Speaker 5: loved what I heard from Vice President Harris over the weekend,

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Speaker 5: really putting her in line with the bipartisan majority in

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Speaker 5: the US House of Representatives, that's you know, Democrats and

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Speaker 5: Republicans embracing digital innovation. The messaging that she put out

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Speaker 5: was what we were encouraging her to embrace, and what

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Speaker 5: it shows is a real reset on this issue and

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Speaker 5: a shift from the current approach of regulation by enforcement

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Speaker 5: with the SEC. You know, we know, I know from

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Speaker 5: my conversations with Vice President Harris and her team that

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Speaker 5: we're going to have a forward looking president who's going

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Speaker 5: to embrace digital innovation and wants to keep those jobs here.

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Speaker 5: She understands why it's important for the US to be

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Speaker 5: a leader in this space. So, you know, this is

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Speaker 5: this was a very welcome policy you know update from

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Speaker 5: her and policy proposal. But the language she's using is

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Speaker 5: very specific and very important in terms of the work

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Speaker 5: we're doing here in the House of Representatives and then

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Speaker 5: on you know, when we get through the Senate to

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Speaker 5: get this bill done in this Congress. So you know,

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Speaker 5: I think I think for folks watching you know, this space,

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Speaker 5: it was it was a big deal.

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Speaker 6: What she said.

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Speaker 2: Well, if we could put a finer point on it, Congressman,

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Speaker 2: you set a tweet over the weekend that got our attention.

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Speaker 2: Writing this new policy position puts her in line with

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Speaker 2: FIT twenty one House and Senate Democrats working to protect

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Speaker 2: consumers and keep digital innovation in the United States. Do

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Speaker 2: we know that, in fact, that the contents of FIT

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Speaker 2: twenty one are endorsed by Kamala Harris.

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Speaker 5: What what we do know is that that she's staking

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Speaker 5: out a position that that you know, signals a shift

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Speaker 5: from from the current Biden administration. That's just natural with

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Speaker 5: with a new candidate, you know, running in her own right.

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Speaker 5: So you know, I think that's that's important to point

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Speaker 5: out here. And you know, we're we're gonna she's going

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Speaker 5: to continue to make policy proposals and and elaborate on

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Speaker 5: her issues. But but I think I think if you're

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Speaker 5: just talking specifically about FIT twenty one, uh, you know,

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Speaker 5: what we're going to see is what Senator Schumer has

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Speaker 5: has pledged to get this bill on the floor of

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Speaker 5: the Senate for a vote and back to the House

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Speaker 5: this year. And when when when he does that, it's

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Speaker 5: going to be you know, Democratic votes that push this issue.

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Speaker 5: And you know, we're going to see an improved product

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Speaker 5: that I think is definitely going to be the kind

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Speaker 5: of thing that can get support from from uh, you know,

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Speaker 5: from a Vice President Harris and from others.

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Speaker 7: Well.

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Speaker 4: And what if that becomes reality will be the result

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Speaker 4: of that is different delineation between the authorities of the CFT.

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Speaker 4: You see an SEC when it comes to regulating digital assets.

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Speaker 4: But Congressman, I am curious in your conversations with the

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Speaker 4: Vice President and her team around crypto, are they suggesting

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Speaker 4: to you that we will see different heads of those

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Speaker 4: regulatory bodies. Who would you recommend if they decide not

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Speaker 4: to keep the current current occupants like Gary Gonsler in

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Speaker 4: those seats.

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Speaker 5: Well, I don't want to talk about what they've said,

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Speaker 5: but I can talk about what I've said, and I've

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Speaker 5: said that Gary Gensler has been a disaster for this

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Speaker 5: administration and his approach on digital assets has taken our

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Speaker 5: country in the wrong direction in a very very significant way.

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Speaker 5: I don't think there's anyone in the US Congress who

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Speaker 5: thinks that Gary Gensler could ever survive a Senate confirmation

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Speaker 5: for any position in the administration. So I think if

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Speaker 5: anybody you know is trying to talk about Gary Gensler

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Speaker 5: continuing on beyond his term, they're just trying to make

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Speaker 5: cheap political points. I think his you know, there's I

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Speaker 5: think there's zero chance that he ever gets confirmed for

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Speaker 5: anything else. And I've said that a whole bunch, So

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Speaker 5: I think, you know, I think his approach is gonna

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Speaker 5: is going to end when his term ends, And you know,

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Speaker 5: all I can do is just focus on making sure

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Speaker 5: that that you know, if and when we get Vice

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Speaker 5: President Harris is our our next president, that you know

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Speaker 5: she has a balanced approach on this issue. And that

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Speaker 5: was the signal that we got from from her own mouth.

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Speaker 5: You know, on these issues over the weekend.

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Speaker 2: As we spend time with Congressman Wiley Nickel of North Carolina,

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Speaker 2: I understand you could be voting as soon as Wednesday,

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Speaker 2: Congressman on a stop gap funding bill. It's on to

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Speaker 2: Plan B. This one described by Speaker Johnson as clean.

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Speaker 2: It's a three month stop gap and he will need

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Speaker 2: Democrats to pass it. Are you on board?

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Speaker 5: Oh? Yeah, no, absolutely, And and and for folks watching,

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Speaker 5: it's going to be House Democrats who are putting people

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Speaker 5: over politics and putting this issue over the top. Republicans

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Speaker 5: continue to be at war with each other. The chaos

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Speaker 5: and confusion I see across the continues on. We're on

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Speaker 5: track to be the least productive Congress in our nation's history.

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Speaker 5: But this week we're going to get a vote on

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Speaker 5: a clean cr to keep the lights on. And it's

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Speaker 5: going to be the majority of votes coming from House

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Speaker 5: Democrats to put this issue over the top in the House,

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Speaker 5: and I believe in the Senate as well. So you know,

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Speaker 5: I think that's that's something for folks to to keep

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Speaker 5: an eye on. You know, we're here to govern, we're

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Speaker 5: here to be responsible. My Republican colleagues just want to

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Speaker 5: blow things up, and Mike Johnson, I don't know if

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Speaker 5: he's even going to get a majority of Republicans to

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Speaker 5: support this, but but House Democrats will be there. And

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Speaker 5: because you know, we can't roll back the progress we're

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Speaker 5: making with the economy by a huge unforced airror shutting

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Speaker 5: down the federal government.

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Speaker 8: So I'm very well.

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Speaker 4: Well and if your optimism proves correct that this will

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Speaker 4: ultimately get past kick the can down the road to

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Speaker 4: December twentieth, when it will be the lame duck session,

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Speaker 4: assuming will know the outcome of the election. Congressman, how

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Speaker 4: messy could this get at the end of the year.

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Speaker 4: Are you concerned when Mike Johnson hasn't been able to

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Speaker 4: keep his party in line to get things across currently

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Speaker 4: that that may actually create quite quite a messy situation

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Speaker 4: come the end of the year and the end of

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Speaker 4: this Congress.

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Speaker 5: I think reasonable minds are going to prevail, especially after

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Speaker 5: the election. So much of what happens in Congress right

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Speaker 5: now is driven by politics with the presidential election. The

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Speaker 5: best time for bipartisan governance is for those two months

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Speaker 5: right after an elections. The furthest away we're going to

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Speaker 5: be from the next election which is the mid term

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Speaker 5: two years away. So I'm really working hard on a

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Speaker 5: ton of issues to push them across the finish line,

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Speaker 5: things you know, like fit twenty one for digital assets,

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Speaker 5: and certainly getting a good you know, a good continued resolution,

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Speaker 5: you know, or budget, which which we actually should have

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Speaker 5: passed months ago. So I think in this case we're in.

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Speaker 5: I'm very optimistic that we're going to start working on

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Speaker 5: this next CR or you know, the budget, and and

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Speaker 5: you know, have a ton of options that we can

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Speaker 5: get moving in a bipartisan way.

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Speaker 2: Right after the election, well, Congressman Nicol, there's a lot

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Speaker 2: of talk about your home state of North Carolina after

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Speaker 2: what happened with the lieutenant governor, a Republican running for

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Speaker 2: the big job. He's the nominee for Governor. Mark Robinson

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Speaker 2: stopped a lot of people in their tracks last week

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Speaker 2: with this story on CNN about his trolling on this

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Speaker 2: porn site in some of the outrageous things that he

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Speaker 2: has said to have posted. He still says none of

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Speaker 2: it's true, but most of his entire senior staff has

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Speaker 2: now quit. He was left last evening with just three

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Speaker 2: campaign staffers, one of whom is his bodyguard. What do

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Speaker 2: you know about this, Congressman, had you heard any stories

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Speaker 2: like these? And how does this end for Mark Robinson?

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Speaker 5: Well, I think it's going to end very well for

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Speaker 5: for the American people and the people of North Carolina,

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Speaker 5: because we're gonna have a great governor with Josh Stein.

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Speaker 5: We've known this about We've known Mark Robinson's character for

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Speaker 5: quite a long time. He's totally unfit to be our

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Speaker 5: next governor. I served in the state Senate when he was,

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Speaker 5: you know, the president of the Senators, our lieutenant governor

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Speaker 5: uh and and his his positions are far out of

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Speaker 5: you know, the mainstream for North Carolina. But we now

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Speaker 5: know really even more about who he is. The comments

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Speaker 5: he's made are horrific, disgusting and totally disqualifying. And you

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Speaker 5: know the fact that his entire campaign staff quit, you

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Speaker 5: know as a group, tells you that they know that

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Speaker 5: it's it's true as well. So I think, you know,

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Speaker 5: my focus is just communicating with with folks in North

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Speaker 5: Carolina about the good choice they have for Josh Stein

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Speaker 5: and making it clear that if you don't, if you

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Speaker 5: don't condemn Mark Robinson, you stand with him, and you

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Speaker 5: stand with his Nazi positions, his pro slavery positions, and

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Speaker 5: so many others that are just absolutely disqualifying. I wish

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Speaker 5: we were in the news for better things in North Carolina,

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Speaker 5: but unfortunately this sad story is getting out there. But

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Speaker 5: for me, North Carolina is an amazing place where y'all

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Speaker 5: means all. And I think that's the message I want

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Speaker 5: for folks to have as they think about the great

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Speaker 5: state of North Carolina.

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Speaker 4: Well, and of course it is a state that could

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Speaker 4: ultimately decide the outcome of the presidential election as well.

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Speaker 4: There's been some conversation since these allegations around Mark Robinson

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Speaker 4: came to light about the downward drag he could create

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Speaker 4: for Donald Trump. And yet the New New York Times

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Speaker 4: Sianna poll that was conducted in North Carolina from September

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Speaker 4: seventeenth to twenty first, so at least in part after

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Speaker 4: these allegations came to light, still shows Donald Trump up

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Speaker 4: two points on Harris forty nine to forty seven. Yes,

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Speaker 4: within the margin of error. But would you expect these

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Speaker 4: Robinson allegations to move that needle more materially for Harris?

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Speaker 5: I do, because Donald Trump endors Bark Robinson. He's he's

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Speaker 5: he's still standing with him right now, and I think

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Speaker 5: that's something that is important for the voters, and we're

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Speaker 5: going to continue to make the case that that by

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Speaker 5: refusing to condemn this absolutely abhorrent behavior, these posts, the

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Speaker 5: things that he said, it shows that you're with him.

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Speaker 5: So I think this is going to be a huge

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Speaker 5: issue for folks in North Carolina, and I'm very optimistic

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Speaker 5: that it's going to put you know, the right candidates

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Speaker 5: over the top when we when we get when we

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Speaker 5: vote in our state in just starting just in a

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Speaker 5: few weeks with early voting.

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Speaker 2: Well, just to get back to the matter at hand

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Speaker 2: this week, Congressman, and we always appreciate your being so

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Speaker 2: generous with your time. Is the government going to stay

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Speaker 2: open through this deadline? A week from today now?

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Speaker 5: The government is going to stay open for business. And

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Speaker 5: you know we're going to pass thanks to Democrats, House

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Speaker 5: Democrats and our leader Hakim Jefferies, we're going to join

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Speaker 5: to pass a continuing resolution to keep the government open.

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Speaker 5: We knew all along that Mike Johnson had no hand

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Speaker 5: to play. He's folded like a deck of cards here

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Speaker 5: and you know, thankfully is doing the right thing to

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Speaker 5: put a bill on the floor to keep the government open.

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Speaker 5: We need to just focus all of us on the economy.

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Speaker 5: That's always the most important issue, and shutting down the

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Speaker 5: federal government right now would be a disaster for our economy.

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Speaker 5: Thankfully we're going to avoid that. But I would just

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Speaker 5: say for folks watching, you know who's the responsible party

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Speaker 5: here in Washington. Look to House Democrats and look to

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Speaker 5: the vote score. You're going to see a lot more

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Speaker 5: House Democrats supporting this than the other side of the aisle.

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Speaker 2: Well, we covered a lot of ground. Congressman Wiley Nickel,

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Speaker 2: the Democrat from North Carolina, whereas he says, y'all means all. Congressman,

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Speaker 2: thank you for a great conversation.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast live

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Speaker 1: weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then royd Otto

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Speaker 2: Coming off a weekend that saw both the candidates out,

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Speaker 2: they are fanning out again today. Donald Trump in Indiana,

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Speaker 2: you say why in Indiana, the swing state of Indiana.

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Speaker 2: It's actually a town in Pennsylvania right between Pittsburgh and

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Speaker 2: punk Satani. That's where the former president is today. By

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Speaker 2: the way, political reporting that the DNC is trolling Donald

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Speaker 2: Trump with chicken signs across Indiana Pennsylvania because he doesn't

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Speaker 2: want to do another debate. Jd Vance in Charlotte, North Carolina.

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Speaker 2: Tim Walls in New York before going to Saint Paul, Minnesota.

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Speaker 2: With new polling out, that's got a lot of people

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Speaker 2: talking today. I'll tell you what, when Don Levy goes

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Speaker 2: in the field, he brings something back every time. And

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Speaker 2: the narrative this morning is hey, slow down. This whole

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Speaker 2: idea of Kamala Harris catching up with, if not surpassing,

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Speaker 2: Donald Trump in the polls. Look at the swing states

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Speaker 2: of Arizona and Georgia. Enter Sienna College, New York Times.

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Speaker 2: Donald Trump gaining e laite in Arizona, remains ahead in Georgia.

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Speaker 2: With the top lines. We're gonna add North Carolina too.

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Speaker 2: This is gonna be a bit of a Sunbelt theme today,

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Speaker 2: all right, Trump fifty in Arizona, Harris forty five and

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Speaker 2: Georgia Trump forty nine, Harris forty five. In North Carolina,

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Speaker 2: Trump forty nine, Harris forty seven. Back with us on

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg Don Levy, Siena College Research Institute Director, Don, It's

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Speaker 2: great to have you back. This reminds us that each

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Speaker 2: poll is a snapshot, and this is a living, moving

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Speaker 2: organism as we make our way to November, isn't it?

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Speaker 3: It absolutely is.

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Speaker 9: I mean, voters are enthusiastic, they want to respond to us,

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Speaker 9: and right now these results certainly are moment in time,

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Speaker 9: but you can't ignore them.

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Speaker 3: Right now, Trump has pulled ahead by.

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Speaker 9: Five points in Arizona. And it's especially noteworthy because in

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Speaker 9: the very same pole the Senate race, which I know

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Speaker 9: you follow very closely, Diego up by six over Lake.

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Speaker 9: So an eleven point difference between where Harris stands in

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Speaker 9: Arizona versus where Gego stands. And what's most important to

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Speaker 9: these voters They continue that they're worried about the direction

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Speaker 9: of the country. The economy is important, and also really

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Speaker 9: interesting in these three poles is where before the issue

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Speaker 9: of protecting democracy was an issue that Harris had an

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Speaker 9: advantage of five six seven point advantage. Right now who's

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Speaker 9: better at protecting democracy? Trump and Harris are even across

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Speaker 9: each of these three key swing states.

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Speaker 2: Well, you know, part of the narrative when Kamala Harris

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Speaker 2: replaced Joe Biden at the top of the ticket down

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Speaker 2: and I'm sure I asked you about this at the time,

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Speaker 2: was a new opening across the sun Belt that you

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Speaker 2: didn't have to necessarily rely on these old Rust Belt

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Speaker 2: states the blue Wall, because Kamala Harris might have more

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Speaker 2: appeal than Joe Biden in some of these states. We

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Speaker 2: looked at Georgia, we looked at Arizona, and yes, North Carolina,

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Speaker 2: which we were talking about just last week being a

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Speaker 2: problem for Republicans in part because of this new Mark

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Speaker 2: Robinson scandal. But what do you make of that now

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Speaker 2: when you pull out broadly and look at the potential

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Speaker 2: lanes to victory for these candidates.

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Speaker 3: Well, certainly the.

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Speaker 9: Sun Belt lane is by no means closed for Harris.

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Speaker 9: I mean you bring up North Carolina there. You know,

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Speaker 9: a month ago we had Harris by two, you know,

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Speaker 9: during that enthusiasm burst after the Democratic Invention. Now we've

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Speaker 9: got Trump by two, really a dead heat. And I

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Speaker 9: think you're really right to point out this issue with

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Speaker 9: Mark Robinson. Our polling was ostensibly completed right before that

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Speaker 9: big story broke, and right now in that race, the

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Speaker 9: cubernatorial race in North Carolina, we have a Democrat Stein

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Speaker 9: up by ten.

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Speaker 3: Points over Robinson.

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Speaker 9: As I say, that's most of that polling done before

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Speaker 9: the news. So we're looking at a situation at North

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Speaker 9: Carolina where I think the Republicans are going to remain

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Speaker 9: worried about a reverse code tales that maybe could narrow

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Speaker 9: that gap that we see right now between Trump up

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Speaker 9: by two over Harris there in the tari Hill state.

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Speaker 2: Looking at Arizona as well, a ballot measure codifying the

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Speaker 2: fundamental right to an abortion as they call it, you

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Speaker 2: find is supported by fifty eight percent of the state's

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Speaker 2: likely voters. I don't know if that's reverse or how

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Speaker 2: that works with coattails, but what does that mean for

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Speaker 2: Kamala Harris as an issue that potentially drives the top

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Speaker 2: of the ticket.

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Speaker 9: It's a winning issue for she continues to lead not

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Speaker 9: only in Arizona, but in each and every one of

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Speaker 9: these battleground states.

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Speaker 3: When we say who's better on the issue of abortion.

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Speaker 9: Now, you got to remember, though, that there's a difference

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Speaker 9: between voters who say they want abortion to always be

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Speaker 9: legal and voters who say they want it to be

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Speaker 9: mostly There is certainly some erosion away from Harris amongst

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Speaker 9: voters who say that abortion should be mostly legal, where

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Speaker 9: nearly half of those voters actually prefer Donald Trump. So

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Speaker 9: abortion continues to be an important winning issues. Certainly, the

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Speaker 9: Harris camp is hopeful that that ballot initiative will bring

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Speaker 9: out voters who might not otherwise vote younger voters, young women,

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Speaker 9: and that those voters could narrow this current five point

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Speaker 9: gap that Harris suffers from there in Arizona.

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Speaker 2: Really interesting here as both candidates get out in the

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Speaker 2: field this week to again hold major at least as

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Speaker 2: they're being termed major policy speeches on the economy, we're

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Speaker 2: going to get them back to back. It looks like

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Speaker 2: Tuesday Georgia Donald Trump, Wednesday Kamala Harris in Pittsburgh. They've

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Speaker 2: both got their own angles here, of course, especially well,

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Speaker 2: I shouldn't say, especially when it comes to taxes, because

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Speaker 2: they even have some overlap there with no taxes on tips.

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Speaker 2: What did you find, don on this most important issue

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Speaker 2: that we've seen quite a bit of narrowing in the

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Speaker 2: last couple of weeks in other swing state polls.

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Speaker 9: Well, a couple of things in the three swing states

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Speaker 9: that we just looked at. When we ask voters a

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Speaker 9: simple question, you know, are headed on the right track

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Speaker 9: or in the wrong direction?

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Speaker 3: By about two to one, you know, all three.

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Speaker 9: Of these states voters told us they think the country

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Speaker 9: is headed in the wrong direction. The economy really stands

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Speaker 9: out when we say, did Trump's policies help you or

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Speaker 9: hurt you?

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Speaker 3: You know, people like you.

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Speaker 9: Trump enjoys a plurality of voters who say that they

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Speaker 9: remember his years, especially the economic component of those years.

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Speaker 9: More Finally, they tend to say that his policies helped

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Speaker 9: them rather than hurt them. A small plurality are worried

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Speaker 9: that Harris's economic policies could hurt them more than help them.

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Speaker 9: Trump continues to enjoy in the sun Belt states a

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Speaker 9: wider margin on who's better in the economy. If we

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Speaker 9: had time, you know, I'm sure we'll talk about it

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Speaker 9: later in the week when we're out with Michigan.

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Speaker 3: And Wisconsin again.

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Speaker 9: But in the Rust Belt, that gap over the economy

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Speaker 9: has closed more and Trump has a much smaller lead

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Speaker 9: in terms of voters impression off who's better in the economy.

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Speaker 9: I think policy statements this week from both of them

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Speaker 9: could influence those voters in the northern rust belt.

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Speaker 3: States as well.

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Speaker 2: The undecideds are always a fascination to us. Here in

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Speaker 2: twelve percent of these voters, and check me if I'm

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Speaker 2: reading this incorrectly, twelve percent of these voters who said

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Speaker 2: they could still change their mind said their biggest concern

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Speaker 2: about Kamala Harris was around her handling of the economy.

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Speaker 2: That's exactly why she's talking this week, right.

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Speaker 9: Oh, absolutely, she's trying to find that secret sauce. Is

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Speaker 9: it specific policies, is it an overall feeling?

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Speaker 3: You know?

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Speaker 9: To what degree is she going to distance herself from

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Speaker 9: the Biden administration? She continues to wrestle with how can

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Speaker 9: she convince these undecided voters, many of whom are younger,

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Speaker 9: many of whom have historically leaned more towards Democrats, but

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Speaker 9: who at the same time say the economy is tough

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Speaker 9: for them. In fact, young voters, undecided voters tell us

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Speaker 9: that the economy is even a greater issue, a greater

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Speaker 9: problem for them than older voters. So Harris has got

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Speaker 9: to keep pounding on how she's going to address the economy.

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Speaker 9: For those voters right now, Trump continues to enjoy.

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Speaker 3: A margin there.

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Speaker 9: And now we add in the situation in the Mid East,

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Speaker 9: and we know from our polling that voters tend to

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Speaker 9: see Trump as being more respected by world leaders than

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Speaker 9: as Harris, and as.

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Speaker 3: A stronger leader than Harris.

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Speaker 9: So in a time of global instability, that also tends

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Speaker 9: to give a bit of a nod right now to

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Speaker 9: Trump over Harris.

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Speaker 2: Okay, Don, I'm out of time, I have like thirty seconds.

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Speaker 3: I'm just curious.

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Speaker 2: Do you see evidence in your research that voters want

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Speaker 2: to seem more interviews as we keep hearing with Kamala Harris,

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Speaker 2: that they want more detail in the media by doing

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Speaker 2: town halls and interviews.

440
00:23:07,800 --> 00:23:10,960
Speaker 9: Yeah, absolutely, voters are asking for that, they say by

441
00:23:11,400 --> 00:23:13,639
Speaker 9: Rato about three to one if they're less likely to

442
00:23:13,760 --> 00:23:17,399
Speaker 9: know enough about Kamala Harris as compared with Trump. They also,

443
00:23:17,560 --> 00:23:20,040
Speaker 9: in some polls have told us that they'd like to

444
00:23:20,040 --> 00:23:22,439
Speaker 9: see another debate. Right now, it doesn't look like we're

445
00:23:22,440 --> 00:23:25,680
Speaker 9: going to see that, But yes, voters are asking.

446
00:23:25,240 --> 00:23:27,840
Speaker 3: For more information about Vice President Harris.

447
00:23:28,840 --> 00:23:31,560
Speaker 2: There you have it from Don Levy, the authority at

448
00:23:31,600 --> 00:23:33,919
Speaker 2: Siena College Research Institute.

449
00:23:34,920 --> 00:23:36,040
Speaker 3: Great to have you backed on.

450
00:23:36,160 --> 00:23:38,080
Speaker 2: Thank you so much for the insights in a poll

451
00:23:38,080 --> 00:23:40,560
Speaker 2: that is driving the conversation coming off of this weekend.

452
00:23:40,600 --> 00:23:42,680
Speaker 2: We're six weeks out as of tomorrow.

453
00:23:46,320 --> 00:23:49,840
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

454
00:23:49,960 --> 00:23:52,959
Speaker 1: Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Appocarplay and then

455
00:23:53,080 --> 00:23:56,040
Speaker 1: roun Oto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand

456
00:23:56,080 --> 00:24:01,880
Speaker 1: wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

457
00:24:02,280 --> 00:24:04,800
Speaker 2: Some concerns, I guess we could use that word for

458
00:24:04,800 --> 00:24:06,680
Speaker 2: the Harris campaign and the sun belt. The fact of

459
00:24:06,720 --> 00:24:09,479
Speaker 2: the matter is, even while we see Donald Trump car

460
00:24:09,520 --> 00:24:12,120
Speaker 2: battle lead in Arizona and maintain a lead in Georgia,

461
00:24:12,400 --> 00:24:14,960
Speaker 2: this is still so close. When you put this together

462
00:24:15,000 --> 00:24:18,600
Speaker 2: with the NBC pull from over the weekend, CBS ipsos,

463
00:24:18,960 --> 00:24:20,880
Speaker 2: this thing is still too close to call, even when

464
00:24:20,880 --> 00:24:23,160
Speaker 2: you get down on the swing state level. I do

465
00:24:23,200 --> 00:24:25,240
Speaker 2: find it interesting, though, that some of the sunlight we

466
00:24:25,240 --> 00:24:27,359
Speaker 2: see between these two candidates on the issue of the

467
00:24:27,400 --> 00:24:29,359
Speaker 2: economy that was born out in several of these.

468
00:24:29,200 --> 00:24:31,600
Speaker 4: Polls well, and we're going to be hearing more from

469
00:24:31,600 --> 00:24:33,920
Speaker 4: them on the economy, perhaps not a coincidence this week,

470
00:24:33,960 --> 00:24:36,960
Speaker 4: as they will be giving speeches in separate events this week.

471
00:24:37,119 --> 00:24:38,879
Speaker 4: So we turn now as we assess all of this

472
00:24:39,000 --> 00:24:41,840
Speaker 4: latest polling, to doctor Lara Brown. She's a political scientist

473
00:24:41,880 --> 00:24:45,640
Speaker 4: and author of Amateur, Our Presidential Character and the Question

474
00:24:46,000 --> 00:24:48,680
Speaker 4: of Leadership. Welcome back to Bloomberg TV and Radio, Laura,

475
00:24:48,680 --> 00:24:50,480
Speaker 4: always great to have you. If we could just begin

476
00:24:50,520 --> 00:24:53,920
Speaker 4: with the New York Times Siena Sunbelt polls. Yes, Donald

477
00:24:53,960 --> 00:24:57,040
Speaker 4: Trump up by five in Arizona, four in Georgia, just

478
00:24:57,080 --> 00:25:00,159
Speaker 4: two in North Carolina. Those latter two, it's within the

479
00:25:00,160 --> 00:25:03,119
Speaker 4: margin of error. But what was noteworthy to me is

480
00:25:03,160 --> 00:25:06,000
Speaker 4: in this poll about fifteen percent of the electorate in

481
00:25:06,040 --> 00:25:11,879
Speaker 4: these three states describe themselves as undecided or not definitely decided.

482
00:25:12,320 --> 00:25:14,440
Speaker 4: How much room really is there for minds to change here?

483
00:25:15,760 --> 00:25:20,040
Speaker 7: Well, I don't think it's necessarily minds to change. It's

484
00:25:20,160 --> 00:25:24,440
Speaker 7: really a resolve to vote. I do think there is,

485
00:25:24,600 --> 00:25:27,840
Speaker 7: and has been for a long time with Donald Trump

486
00:25:27,880 --> 00:25:32,280
Speaker 7: on the ballot, a group of voters who are displeased

487
00:25:32,600 --> 00:25:36,560
Speaker 7: with him as a candidate, but are not sold on

488
00:25:37,000 --> 00:25:41,080
Speaker 7: voting for a Democrat. And so some of what happens

489
00:25:41,160 --> 00:25:43,959
Speaker 7: is these people who say they want to vote but

490
00:25:44,160 --> 00:25:48,960
Speaker 7: say they're undecided are often just unresolved to turn out

491
00:25:49,160 --> 00:25:53,520
Speaker 7: at all, and I think that's where there can be

492
00:25:53,600 --> 00:25:57,639
Speaker 7: some persuasion efforts to get people to the polls, and

493
00:25:57,760 --> 00:26:02,040
Speaker 7: things could change on election day depending on who really

494
00:26:02,080 --> 00:26:02,880
Speaker 7: does show up.

495
00:26:04,240 --> 00:26:06,639
Speaker 2: Interesting numbers on the economy, Laura, I'll point to the

496
00:26:06,720 --> 00:26:10,080
Speaker 2: NBC News poll here with Donald Trump leading Kamala Harris

497
00:26:11,359 --> 00:26:14,360
Speaker 2: fifty to forty one percent nine points on the economy

498
00:26:14,400 --> 00:26:16,880
Speaker 2: at large, and on dealing with inflation and the cost

499
00:26:16,920 --> 00:26:20,520
Speaker 2: of living an eight point lead forty eight to forty percent.

500
00:26:21,200 --> 00:26:25,280
Speaker 2: They're both both candidates holding economic policy speeches this week

501
00:26:25,320 --> 00:26:27,679
Speaker 2: in which they'll try to round out their approach to

502
00:26:27,800 --> 00:26:31,600
Speaker 2: taxes and incentives. But I wonder can Kamala Harris win

503
00:26:32,080 --> 00:26:36,280
Speaker 2: this election without turning these numbers around.

504
00:26:37,200 --> 00:26:40,800
Speaker 7: Well, I think she doesn't need to completely turn them around,

505
00:26:40,800 --> 00:26:44,199
Speaker 7: but she needs to narrow that gap. The reality is

506
00:26:44,440 --> 00:26:48,880
Speaker 7: she's already cut that gap in half since she's been

507
00:26:48,920 --> 00:26:51,600
Speaker 7: in the race. When you look at the other polls

508
00:26:52,400 --> 00:26:56,600
Speaker 7: from June, prior to Biden stepping away from the race,

509
00:26:57,320 --> 00:27:01,520
Speaker 7: Donald Trump was leading by twenty points on that issue.

510
00:27:01,720 --> 00:27:05,400
Speaker 7: So I do think there has been kind of a

511
00:27:05,600 --> 00:27:10,040
Speaker 7: return to a sense that the economy is getting better,

512
00:27:10,320 --> 00:27:17,400
Speaker 7: But not enough people yet feel the impacts of that restoration,

513
00:27:17,720 --> 00:27:22,480
Speaker 7: and so many individuals are still suffering under the high

514
00:27:22,480 --> 00:27:28,840
Speaker 7: prices that we experienced with the really unprecedented inflation in

515
00:27:28,880 --> 00:27:30,400
Speaker 7: the last few years.

516
00:27:32,080 --> 00:27:34,480
Speaker 4: Well, of course, Laura, in that regard, we got some

517
00:27:34,560 --> 00:27:36,400
Speaker 4: big news last week in the form of a FED

518
00:27:36,960 --> 00:27:39,080
Speaker 4: rate cut. It is the only one we'll get prior

519
00:27:39,200 --> 00:27:42,200
Speaker 4: to voters actually going to the polls, though they could

520
00:27:42,280 --> 00:27:45,679
Speaker 4: very well cut rates again just two days after the election.

521
00:27:45,800 --> 00:27:48,359
Speaker 4: How much do you think that really influences, at least

522
00:27:48,359 --> 00:27:52,320
Speaker 4: the sentiment of the voter and consumer. Knowing that rates

523
00:27:52,320 --> 00:27:54,439
Speaker 4: are lower, perhaps it's easier to buy a home or

524
00:27:54,440 --> 00:27:59,040
Speaker 4: a car, you buy things essentially that require debt. Does

525
00:27:59,040 --> 00:28:01,080
Speaker 4: that make a material difference? And when will we see

526
00:28:01,119 --> 00:28:02,040
Speaker 4: that show up in polls?

527
00:28:02,040 --> 00:28:04,600
Speaker 7: If it does well, I think if it's going to

528
00:28:04,640 --> 00:28:07,280
Speaker 7: show up in polls, it probably won't show up until

529
00:28:07,359 --> 00:28:12,720
Speaker 7: late October, partly because where most Americans will see it

530
00:28:12,880 --> 00:28:18,080
Speaker 7: the fastest is actually in their credit card statements, where

531
00:28:18,119 --> 00:28:23,359
Speaker 7: they see the changed interest rate that was applied to

532
00:28:23,440 --> 00:28:27,800
Speaker 7: their revolving debt. So, yes, many Americans are now kind

533
00:28:27,800 --> 00:28:31,159
Speaker 7: of looking at home ownership, and we could see that

534
00:28:31,240 --> 00:28:37,240
Speaker 7: as rates came down in anticipation of this cut. Mortgage

535
00:28:37,640 --> 00:28:42,120
Speaker 7: rates fell kind of in Unison, and I do think

536
00:28:43,280 --> 00:28:46,960
Speaker 7: more people are thinking about housing changes, but my guess

537
00:28:47,040 --> 00:28:49,280
Speaker 7: is a lot of that will wait until after the

538
00:28:49,280 --> 00:28:52,000
Speaker 7: first of the year, and it may not arrive in

539
00:28:52,080 --> 00:28:54,800
Speaker 7: time for the Democrats at this election.

540
00:28:56,120 --> 00:28:58,800
Speaker 2: Laura, I'm curious your thoughts on Donald Trump's approach to

541
00:28:58,840 --> 00:29:01,720
Speaker 2: women over the weekend, and not only on Truth Social,

542
00:29:02,360 --> 00:29:06,000
Speaker 2: but in person and a rally that he held in North Carolina,

543
00:29:06,400 --> 00:29:09,840
Speaker 2: knowing that it will likely be suburban women who choose

544
00:29:10,320 --> 00:29:13,719
Speaker 2: or to decide this election. It's a very long post

545
00:29:13,760 --> 00:29:17,160
Speaker 2: on Truth Social in all caps. I won't spend time

546
00:29:17,240 --> 00:29:20,200
Speaker 2: reading the whole thing, but he says I will protect

547
00:29:20,240 --> 00:29:23,920
Speaker 2: women at a level never seen before. They will finally

548
00:29:23,960 --> 00:29:27,959
Speaker 2: be healthy, hopeful, safe and secure. Their lives will be happy,

549
00:29:28,120 --> 00:29:32,560
Speaker 2: beautiful and great again. He prefaced that by talking about

550
00:29:32,760 --> 00:29:36,520
Speaker 2: current conditions for women in America, and he read directly

551
00:29:36,560 --> 00:29:38,240
Speaker 2: from his post in North Carolina.

552
00:29:38,280 --> 00:29:41,480
Speaker 3: Here he is, so let's talk about our great women.

553
00:29:41,760 --> 00:29:43,120
Speaker 10: Women have gone through a lot.

554
00:29:43,640 --> 00:29:44,840
Speaker 3: They've gone through a lot.

555
00:29:45,400 --> 00:29:49,400
Speaker 10: Women are poorer than they were four years ago, are

556
00:29:49,480 --> 00:29:55,160
Speaker 10: less healthy than they were four years ago, are less safe,

557
00:29:55,760 --> 00:29:59,440
Speaker 10: on the streets than they were four years ago. I

558
00:29:59,520 --> 00:30:03,040
Speaker 10: will fit all of that women, I will fix all

559
00:30:03,080 --> 00:30:07,480
Speaker 10: of that, and I will fix it fair and at

560
00:30:07,520 --> 00:30:12,680
Speaker 10: long last, this national nightmare that we're going through will

561
00:30:12,680 --> 00:30:17,640
Speaker 10: be over. Women will be happy, healthy, confident, and free.

562
00:30:18,160 --> 00:30:22,000
Speaker 10: You will no longer be thinking about abortion, because it

563
00:30:22,120 --> 00:30:25,280
Speaker 10: is now where it always had to be, with the

564
00:30:25,360 --> 00:30:27,640
Speaker 10: States and with the vote of the people.

565
00:30:29,120 --> 00:30:32,480
Speaker 2: You will no longer be thinking about abortion. I saw

566
00:30:32,520 --> 00:30:34,960
Speaker 2: a lot of references on Twitter over the weekend to

567
00:30:35,120 --> 00:30:38,920
Speaker 2: mansplaining Laura, I wonder what you think about this direct

568
00:30:38,920 --> 00:30:41,400
Speaker 2: appeal by Donald Trump to women voters.

569
00:30:42,200 --> 00:30:45,480
Speaker 7: Well, I think that Donald Trump has very little credibility

570
00:30:45,640 --> 00:30:51,800
Speaker 7: among many women in America, and in fact, the historic

571
00:30:52,200 --> 00:30:55,240
Speaker 7: gender gaps that we are seeing in the polling is

572
00:30:55,360 --> 00:30:58,960
Speaker 7: not only sort of there and present. But if we

573
00:30:59,400 --> 00:31:04,240
Speaker 7: go back to twenty sixteen and we remember his election,

574
00:31:04,400 --> 00:31:08,640
Speaker 7: and then we remember his inauguration in twenty seventeen, there

575
00:31:08,840 --> 00:31:14,440
Speaker 7: was a giant women's march the very next day, the

576
00:31:14,640 --> 00:31:19,120
Speaker 7: Sunday after he was inaugurated, was the largest march on

577
00:31:19,320 --> 00:31:24,000
Speaker 7: Washington and really women's march around the country. So I

578
00:31:24,120 --> 00:31:30,560
Speaker 7: don't think it is credible. It's also indirect contradiction to

579
00:31:30,720 --> 00:31:34,240
Speaker 7: some of the comments that have been made by either

580
00:31:34,800 --> 00:31:40,640
Speaker 7: vice presidential nominee jd Vance, former President Donald Trump himself

581
00:31:40,760 --> 00:31:43,680
Speaker 7: with his Access Hollywood tape and the things he has

582
00:31:43,760 --> 00:31:47,680
Speaker 7: said about Egene Carroll and Stormy Daniels. And then, of

583
00:31:47,720 --> 00:31:53,120
Speaker 7: course you get to North Carolina itself, where the Republican

584
00:31:53,360 --> 00:31:59,239
Speaker 7: gubernatorial nominee has been not just revealed as sort of

585
00:31:59,320 --> 00:32:04,720
Speaker 7: making misogynistic statements toward women, but has himself been caught

586
00:32:04,800 --> 00:32:08,920
Speaker 7: up in a scandal involving pornography yep.

587
00:32:08,960 --> 00:32:12,080
Speaker 4: And Mark Robinson has lost now four senior members of

588
00:32:12,120 --> 00:32:15,480
Speaker 4: his campaign staff. He didn't get much from Donald Trump

589
00:32:15,520 --> 00:32:18,560
Speaker 4: in terms of airtime in North Carolina this weekend, though

590
00:32:18,560 --> 00:32:20,520
Speaker 4: he of course wasn't there at the rally. Donald Trump

591
00:32:20,600 --> 00:32:23,800
Speaker 4: didn't address it. How do you actually consider Mark Robinson

592
00:32:23,840 --> 00:32:27,160
Speaker 4: being on the ballot with Donald Trump, Laura and looking

593
00:32:27,200 --> 00:32:29,479
Speaker 4: at the polling in which Trump, according to New York

594
00:32:29,520 --> 00:32:32,040
Speaker 4: Times Siana is just two points ahead of Harris and

595
00:32:32,120 --> 00:32:35,920
Speaker 4: Erase this tight, does that kind of candidate actually make

596
00:32:35,960 --> 00:32:36,520
Speaker 4: the difference?

597
00:32:37,560 --> 00:32:41,719
Speaker 7: Well, certainly, Mitch McConnell talked about in a prior cycle

598
00:32:41,800 --> 00:32:47,480
Speaker 7: how important candidate quality is for turnout for a ballot

599
00:32:47,640 --> 00:32:53,280
Speaker 7: for a party to really coalesce and engage and enthusiastically

600
00:32:53,480 --> 00:32:59,160
Speaker 7: vote for their candidates. So I do think that Mark

601
00:32:59,240 --> 00:33:02,560
Speaker 7: Robinson is a problem for the Republicans. I think the

602
00:33:02,640 --> 00:33:09,640
Speaker 7: bigger problem is that North Carolina, like Florida, and like Texas,

603
00:33:10,120 --> 00:33:17,520
Speaker 7: also have very stringent state level restrictions on abortion, and

604
00:33:17,720 --> 00:33:21,920
Speaker 7: that is impacting women in those states in a disproportionate way,

605
00:33:22,040 --> 00:33:25,760
Speaker 7: in a way it's not hitting or impacting women in

606
00:33:25,880 --> 00:33:29,520
Speaker 7: Michigan or Pennsylvania. So I think we have to be

607
00:33:30,120 --> 00:33:36,120
Speaker 7: very cognizant of how abortion in those states could actually

608
00:33:36,200 --> 00:33:40,440
Speaker 7: play to the detriment of Republicans much more than in

609
00:33:40,560 --> 00:33:42,200
Speaker 7: other places in the country.

610
00:33:43,320 --> 00:33:46,400
Speaker 2: A recurring theme in our conversation Slately doctor Laura Brown,

611
00:33:46,440 --> 00:33:49,440
Speaker 2: political scientists. Laura, it's great to have you back on Bloomberg.

612
00:33:49,480 --> 00:33:52,440
Speaker 2: Thanks for a great conversation. As always, as we follow

613
00:33:52,480 --> 00:33:54,760
Speaker 2: the polling data and Kaylee, we follow the money as

614
00:33:54,760 --> 00:33:57,240
Speaker 2: well with our panel. Next we find Kamala Harris out

615
00:33:57,240 --> 00:33:59,960
Speaker 2: spending Donald Trump to the tune of five million dollar

616
00:34:00,240 --> 00:34:02,720
Speaker 2: a day. Rick and Genie up next on Bloomberg.

617
00:34:05,840 --> 00:34:09,160
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Ken

618
00:34:09,360 --> 00:34:12,680
Speaker 1: Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and enroyd

619
00:34:12,719 --> 00:34:15,440
Speaker 1: Outo with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen

620
00:34:15,520 --> 00:34:18,640
Speaker 1: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,

621
00:34:19,040 --> 00:34:23,080
Speaker 1: Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

622
00:34:24,000 --> 00:34:26,480
Speaker 4: Welcome back to Balance of Power on Bloomberg TV and Radio,

623
00:34:26,600 --> 00:34:28,840
Speaker 4: Charlie Pellett. There, just throwing some numbers at you that

624
00:34:28,880 --> 00:34:31,120
Speaker 4: you need to know, and I'm going to do some more.

625
00:34:31,320 --> 00:34:34,480
Speaker 4: The latest figures assembled by your colleague Bill Allison, according

626
00:34:34,520 --> 00:34:38,040
Speaker 4: to federal campaign filings, in terms of spending for both

627
00:34:38,080 --> 00:34:41,840
Speaker 4: of the presidential campaigns, Kamala Harris spending an average of

628
00:34:41,880 --> 00:34:44,160
Speaker 4: seven and a half million dollars a day in August.

629
00:34:44,520 --> 00:34:47,879
Speaker 4: That's nearly five million more than Donald Trump, who spent

630
00:34:48,040 --> 00:34:51,319
Speaker 4: two point six million on average. You look ahead into September,

631
00:34:51,600 --> 00:34:54,200
Speaker 4: she's spending one hundred and fifty two million dollars on

632
00:34:54,280 --> 00:34:57,399
Speaker 4: advertising this month according to ad Impact. That's a twenty

633
00:34:57,480 --> 00:35:00,719
Speaker 4: one percent increase to August, and it's more than the

634
00:35:00,800 --> 00:35:04,440
Speaker 4: sixty three million dollars that Trump is spending. If it's

635
00:35:04,480 --> 00:35:08,200
Speaker 4: a money race, Joe, it's an interesting.

636
00:35:07,800 --> 00:35:10,560
Speaker 2: One, and we know who's winning the money race, But

637
00:35:10,640 --> 00:35:12,719
Speaker 2: what is the value of money in this race is

638
00:35:12,760 --> 00:35:15,200
Speaker 2: a question we've asked a lot, certainly when you're running

639
00:35:15,200 --> 00:35:18,560
Speaker 2: against the king of earned media, and so we assemble

640
00:35:18,600 --> 00:35:20,640
Speaker 2: our panel for their take on this. Rick Davis and

641
00:35:20,680 --> 00:35:23,560
Speaker 2: Genie Shanzino are back with us on the Monday edition

642
00:35:23,600 --> 00:35:25,800
Speaker 2: of Balance and Power. Of course, Genie's a political science

643
00:35:25,800 --> 00:35:29,600
Speaker 2: professor at Iona University. Rick Davis partner at Stone Court Capital.

644
00:35:29,680 --> 00:35:32,920
Speaker 2: Great to see you both here. Rick, your thoughts on this.

645
00:35:33,280 --> 00:35:35,840
Speaker 2: Having run a presidential campaign, you know the value of

646
00:35:35,880 --> 00:35:38,400
Speaker 2: a dollar, but if you're running against Donald Trump, is

647
00:35:38,400 --> 00:35:39,200
Speaker 2: it a different question.

648
00:35:40,760 --> 00:35:43,160
Speaker 8: Yeah. First, you're absolutely right. He is the king of

649
00:35:43,160 --> 00:35:46,440
Speaker 8: earned media. When he speaks, the media reports it even

650
00:35:46,600 --> 00:35:49,000
Speaker 8: you know, when they know they shouldn't, they do it anyway,

651
00:35:49,239 --> 00:35:52,799
Speaker 8: and so he gets an enormous advantage with that. But

652
00:35:52,880 --> 00:35:55,640
Speaker 8: he also doesn't control what is said about him on

653
00:35:55,719 --> 00:35:59,200
Speaker 8: earned media, and he doesn't always, you know, sort of

654
00:35:59,200 --> 00:36:02,040
Speaker 8: stick to a message. So he kind of diminishes his

655
00:36:02,239 --> 00:36:07,320
Speaker 8: own impact through earned media, which means probably advantage Kamala

656
00:36:07,400 --> 00:36:11,160
Speaker 8: Harris because she's out spending him on the airwaves where

657
00:36:11,239 --> 00:36:15,440
Speaker 8: eighty percent of the campaign budgets being used, and significantly

658
00:36:15,480 --> 00:36:18,759
Speaker 8: so to the point of four sometimes five times more

659
00:36:18,800 --> 00:36:23,800
Speaker 8: money on TV in key targeted swing states than Donald

660
00:36:23,840 --> 00:36:28,240
Speaker 8: Trump's using. And so I still think a prepared message

661
00:36:28,360 --> 00:36:32,160
Speaker 8: over and over and over, you know, to voters is

662
00:36:32,320 --> 00:36:35,480
Speaker 8: going to win out in the long run if the

663
00:36:35,520 --> 00:36:37,360
Speaker 8: issue is education of the voters.

664
00:36:39,239 --> 00:36:43,160
Speaker 4: Okay, So if that's true, Genie, why if Kamala Harris

665
00:36:43,200 --> 00:36:46,040
Speaker 4: has already been spending that kind of money trying to

666
00:36:46,080 --> 00:36:48,160
Speaker 4: hit the same message as home, are we not seeing

667
00:36:48,200 --> 00:36:51,839
Speaker 4: it necessarily show up materially in polls which still show

668
00:36:51,920 --> 00:36:54,440
Speaker 4: this is a neck and neck race. There has been

669
00:36:54,480 --> 00:36:57,560
Speaker 4: no serious Harris breakout, at least consistently.

670
00:36:59,120 --> 00:37:02,200
Speaker 6: There hasn't been a breakout, but she is up a

671
00:37:02,280 --> 00:37:04,879
Speaker 6: lot from where Joe Biden was when she took over.

672
00:37:05,000 --> 00:37:08,080
Speaker 6: You just look at the issue of the economy. Donald

673
00:37:08,120 --> 00:37:10,640
Speaker 6: Trump is still leading by about plus nine in the

674
00:37:10,719 --> 00:37:14,000
Speaker 6: latest polls, but that is a far cry from where

675
00:37:14,040 --> 00:37:17,160
Speaker 6: he was leading in the double digits over Joe Biden.

676
00:37:17,480 --> 00:37:21,080
Speaker 6: So she has seen some movement, and I would suggest

677
00:37:21,200 --> 00:37:24,000
Speaker 6: some of that movement is coming from the money that

678
00:37:24,040 --> 00:37:27,319
Speaker 6: you're talking about, because she has been able to use

679
00:37:27,400 --> 00:37:30,839
Speaker 6: digital to micro target She's spending five to one over

680
00:37:30,920 --> 00:37:34,840
Speaker 6: Trump on micro targeting, and that has resulted in gains

681
00:37:34,960 --> 00:37:39,799
Speaker 6: among some key constituencies that said, Kaylee, you're absolutely right

682
00:37:40,200 --> 00:37:43,080
Speaker 6: for all the spending. She is not running away with

683
00:37:43,120 --> 00:37:45,879
Speaker 6: the poles either, So you know, she's sort of back

684
00:37:45,920 --> 00:37:49,360
Speaker 6: to where we were twenty twenty. She's made the race

685
00:37:49,520 --> 00:37:51,880
Speaker 6: of you know, more of a dead heat certainly than

686
00:37:52,440 --> 00:37:54,160
Speaker 6: where it was when Joe Biden was at the top

687
00:37:54,160 --> 00:37:57,359
Speaker 6: of the ticket. But it is it is a struggle, nonetheless,

688
00:37:57,440 --> 00:38:00,440
Speaker 6: because Donald Trump is able to do a lot with

689
00:38:00,480 --> 00:38:03,200
Speaker 6: a little bit of money that he is able and

690
00:38:03,280 --> 00:38:05,320
Speaker 6: willing to spend on the campaign.

691
00:38:06,840 --> 00:38:09,759
Speaker 2: Our story refers to the rapid inflow of checks from

692
00:38:09,840 --> 00:38:14,560
Speaker 2: deep pocketed donors to Harris's campaign since she replaced Joe Biden.

693
00:38:14,560 --> 00:38:16,680
Speaker 2: And there's a fascinating story from over the weekend of

694
00:38:16,680 --> 00:38:18,279
Speaker 2: the Wall Street Journal. I want to ask you both

695
00:38:18,320 --> 00:38:23,520
Speaker 2: about about Harris's undercover push to win over corporate America,

696
00:38:23,560 --> 00:38:28,560
Speaker 2: remembering she's been publicly appealing to small businesses and to consumers.

697
00:38:29,080 --> 00:38:31,080
Speaker 2: But look at this, in the ten days before Joe

698
00:38:31,080 --> 00:38:33,840
Speaker 2: Biden dropped out of the campaign, he got about ninety

699
00:38:33,880 --> 00:38:37,880
Speaker 2: one thousand dollars from about nine hundred ninety donors with

700
00:38:38,040 --> 00:38:43,600
Speaker 2: self identified CEO titles. In the ten days after Harris's

701
00:38:43,640 --> 00:38:50,760
Speaker 2: campaign received nearly two million dollars from five thousand such donors.

702
00:38:51,480 --> 00:38:55,080
Speaker 2: There are stories Rick about Harris hosting dinners at the

703
00:38:55,160 --> 00:38:59,080
Speaker 2: Naval Observatory with eight to ten chief executives on the

704
00:38:59,160 --> 00:39:02,280
Speaker 2: regular talking about a range of topics. This is about

705
00:39:02,280 --> 00:39:05,400
Speaker 2: more than Mark Cuban and I wonder, Rick, how important

706
00:39:05,640 --> 00:39:09,239
Speaker 2: these these relationships that she's developing will be to the

707
00:39:09,320 --> 00:39:10,560
Speaker 2: end result of this campaign.

708
00:39:11,880 --> 00:39:15,839
Speaker 8: Well, fundamentally they result in campaign contributions. And so if

709
00:39:15,880 --> 00:39:19,320
Speaker 8: you believe what I believe, which is having more money

710
00:39:19,320 --> 00:39:23,800
Speaker 8: to spend on TV and organizationally and on the ground

711
00:39:24,640 --> 00:39:27,880
Speaker 8: is an advantage for you, even in a severely divided

712
00:39:27,920 --> 00:39:31,439
Speaker 8: country like what we have, then that's worth it too.

713
00:39:32,600 --> 00:39:37,719
Speaker 8: There is a follow on impact of having corporate CEOs

714
00:39:38,160 --> 00:39:43,759
Speaker 8: and business leadership endorse you and before you. Lots of

715
00:39:43,880 --> 00:39:48,239
Speaker 8: employees in places like JP Morgan and City Bank and

716
00:39:48,280 --> 00:39:55,000
Speaker 8: places like that, if they think their bosses are signed

717
00:39:55,040 --> 00:39:58,280
Speaker 8: on to your philosophy and believe you're good for their company,

718
00:39:58,760 --> 00:40:00,920
Speaker 8: they'll be more likely to vote for you. It is

719
00:40:00,960 --> 00:40:04,719
Speaker 8: a fantastic way to try and garner votes. There are

720
00:40:05,239 --> 00:40:11,080
Speaker 8: tens of thousands of finance employees in Arizona alone, that

721
00:40:11,120 --> 00:40:14,400
Speaker 8: could shift the outcome of that election if they voted

722
00:40:14,400 --> 00:40:18,680
Speaker 8: their company logo. So the reality is it has a

723
00:40:18,719 --> 00:40:21,920
Speaker 8: lot of follow on consequences, and the Republican Party has

724
00:40:22,000 --> 00:40:25,040
Speaker 8: not really done much to reach out. We've become sort

725
00:40:25,080 --> 00:40:28,600
Speaker 8: of the party of anti corporate behavior, and I think

726
00:40:28,640 --> 00:40:31,799
Speaker 8: that has given an opportunity for the Democrats to exploit it.

727
00:40:33,560 --> 00:40:35,600
Speaker 4: Well, Genie, it raises the question, though, if there is

728
00:40:35,640 --> 00:40:38,760
Speaker 4: an opportunity to be exploited, why not be more forward

729
00:40:39,000 --> 00:40:41,040
Speaker 4: about it. The operative word in this Wall Street Journal

730
00:40:41,040 --> 00:40:45,280
Speaker 4: headline that Joe mentioned is that this is an undercover push.

731
00:40:45,360 --> 00:40:48,200
Speaker 4: Is that because this also could risk backfiring among more

732
00:40:48,239 --> 00:40:49,480
Speaker 4: liberal Democrats.

733
00:40:50,880 --> 00:40:54,200
Speaker 6: Yeah, I think Democrats have long had that concern. If

734
00:40:54,239 --> 00:40:57,319
Speaker 6: you go back to two thousand and sixteen, you know,

735
00:40:57,400 --> 00:41:00,560
Speaker 6: Hillary Clinton's speeches got a lot of co bridge. Some

736
00:41:00,600 --> 00:41:03,160
Speaker 6: say it hurt her in the populist realm, and that's

737
00:41:03,280 --> 00:41:05,880
Speaker 6: part of why, you know, somebody like Bernie Sanders was

738
00:41:05,920 --> 00:41:09,120
Speaker 6: so popular in the Democratic primaries and caucuses. So I

739
00:41:09,160 --> 00:41:12,319
Speaker 6: think there is still some of that concern amongst Democrats

740
00:41:12,360 --> 00:41:15,800
Speaker 6: out there. I don't know how private I would agree

741
00:41:15,840 --> 00:41:18,839
Speaker 6: with the Wall Street Journal that these really were I mean,

742
00:41:19,600 --> 00:41:22,720
Speaker 6: you know these are you know, in many cases easy

743
00:41:22,760 --> 00:41:25,600
Speaker 6: to find publicly that she has been doing this, and

744
00:41:25,719 --> 00:41:29,720
Speaker 6: let's face it, people are going to follow the trends.

745
00:41:29,760 --> 00:41:33,359
Speaker 6: So when Donald, when Kamala Harris the takes the head

746
00:41:33,400 --> 00:41:38,120
Speaker 6: of the party and finally gets the nomination, people CEOs,

747
00:41:38,160 --> 00:41:40,760
Speaker 6: people on Wall Street, they too are reading these polls.

748
00:41:40,800 --> 00:41:42,799
Speaker 6: They see the momentum and they don't want to be

749
00:41:42,920 --> 00:41:46,560
Speaker 6: left out of a swing towards Kamala Harris. So, you know,

750
00:41:46,640 --> 00:41:49,040
Speaker 6: I think it's a reflection of the amount of attention

751
00:41:49,200 --> 00:41:52,759
Speaker 6: and momentum she's had on her side, and you know

752
00:41:52,960 --> 00:41:55,760
Speaker 6: that energy is going to drive money, and it's certainly

753
00:41:55,840 --> 00:41:59,960
Speaker 6: driven money towards Kamala Harris. I'm not convinced yet. It's

754
00:42:00,160 --> 00:42:02,120
Speaker 6: not a drug on her, but I'm not convinced yet

755
00:42:02,120 --> 00:42:05,000
Speaker 6: it's going to turn into votes that she needs. But

756
00:42:05,040 --> 00:42:08,040
Speaker 6: it certainly doesn't hurt her. It's a help, to say

757
00:42:08,040 --> 00:42:08,560
Speaker 6: the least.

758
00:42:09,600 --> 00:42:11,959
Speaker 2: Well, we're having this conversation as the two running mates

759
00:42:12,000 --> 00:42:15,279
Speaker 2: prepare for their big debate next week. Of course, a

760
00:42:15,280 --> 00:42:17,719
Speaker 2: lot of things are happening at once here and it's

761
00:42:17,960 --> 00:42:20,560
Speaker 2: really interesting to see this come together. We understand Pete

762
00:42:20,560 --> 00:42:24,520
Speaker 2: buddhaj Edge has been playing jd Vance for Tim Walls

763
00:42:24,520 --> 00:42:28,480
Speaker 2: in his preparations. Now, The New York Times says Representative

764
00:42:28,520 --> 00:42:33,319
Speaker 2: Tom Emmer majority whip in the House is playing Tim

765
00:42:33,400 --> 00:42:37,120
Speaker 2: Walls in jd Vance's preparations. They've been doing a lot

766
00:42:37,160 --> 00:42:41,279
Speaker 2: of these rick at jd Vance's house, apparently in Cincinnati.

767
00:42:41,719 --> 00:42:45,320
Speaker 2: It's inside his home and in online sessions to get ready.

768
00:42:45,400 --> 00:42:49,280
Speaker 2: What's the most important thing Tom Emmer can teach jd

769
00:42:49,440 --> 00:42:50,480
Speaker 2: Vance in the next week.

770
00:42:51,920 --> 00:42:55,759
Speaker 8: Yeah, I think jd Vance has got a personality problem, right.

771
00:42:55,840 --> 00:43:01,360
Speaker 8: I mean, Tim Wallas is a very friendly, soft spoken

772
00:43:01,440 --> 00:43:04,839
Speaker 8: guy who can get excited and spin a phrase and

773
00:43:04,920 --> 00:43:09,239
Speaker 8: has dubbed jd Vance weird, which caught on pretty hard.

774
00:43:10,200 --> 00:43:12,719
Speaker 8: And that's a hard thing to guard against. You can

775
00:43:12,760 --> 00:43:15,440
Speaker 8: guard against an attack on taxes or an attack on

776
00:43:15,719 --> 00:43:18,960
Speaker 8: foreign policy, and you can get all the political stuff right,

777
00:43:19,520 --> 00:43:21,680
Speaker 8: and then all of a sudden, the personality clash and

778
00:43:21,719 --> 00:43:24,200
Speaker 8: you look mean, or you look weird, or you look

779
00:43:24,239 --> 00:43:28,560
Speaker 8: somehow disconnected. And I think that's the biggest concern. I

780
00:43:28,600 --> 00:43:31,080
Speaker 8: think if I were in the debate prep with jd

781
00:43:31,239 --> 00:43:35,080
Speaker 8: vances like, we've got to make you equally normal as

782
00:43:35,200 --> 00:43:37,239
Speaker 8: Tim Wall, So be careful what you say. And how

783
00:43:37,239 --> 00:43:37,839
Speaker 8: you say it.

784
00:43:39,320 --> 00:43:39,480
Speaker 9: Well.

785
00:43:39,520 --> 00:43:41,400
Speaker 4: And of course we know we will get this debate

786
00:43:42,000 --> 00:43:44,480
Speaker 4: next Tuesday. We don't know if we'll get another debate

787
00:43:44,480 --> 00:43:47,440
Speaker 4: between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. Although Harris over the

788
00:43:47,480 --> 00:43:50,640
Speaker 4: weekend said she has agreed to another debate on CNN

789
00:43:50,680 --> 00:43:54,480
Speaker 4: on October twenty third, challenging Donald Trump to do the same,

790
00:43:54,520 --> 00:43:57,759
Speaker 4: although he has said this weekend that it's too late.

791
00:43:57,880 --> 00:44:01,080
Speaker 4: The voting is already cast if it happens on October

792
00:44:01,480 --> 00:44:03,520
Speaker 4: twenty third, Genie, if you're a betting woman, are you

793
00:44:03,560 --> 00:44:06,520
Speaker 4: betting that Donald Trump actually changes his mind and joins

794
00:44:06,520 --> 00:44:07,400
Speaker 4: her on that stage.

795
00:44:08,360 --> 00:44:11,719
Speaker 6: I'm hoping, you know that, Kayleie, I'm really hoping. I

796
00:44:11,760 --> 00:44:13,040
Speaker 6: think it's very possible.

797
00:44:13,120 --> 00:44:13,319
Speaker 1: You know.

798
00:44:13,400 --> 00:44:15,799
Speaker 6: I think if the polls don't look like they are

799
00:44:15,800 --> 00:44:19,880
Speaker 6: in Donald Trump's favor, he will change his mind without

800
00:44:19,880 --> 00:44:23,120
Speaker 6: blinking an eye. And the late aspect of this is

801
00:44:23,200 --> 00:44:26,080
Speaker 6: a bit head scratching, because four years ago the debate

802
00:44:26,120 --> 00:44:30,320
Speaker 6: was October twenty second, So the idea that October twenty

803
00:44:30,360 --> 00:44:34,600
Speaker 6: third is too late, you know, that's not actually reflective

804
00:44:34,600 --> 00:44:36,840
Speaker 6: of reality. He did it last time, He could do

805
00:44:36,880 --> 00:44:41,080
Speaker 6: it again, and he will if strategically it's to his benefit,

806
00:44:41,160 --> 00:44:44,239
Speaker 6: and of course Kamala Harris jumping on CNN because she

807
00:44:44,320 --> 00:44:47,080
Speaker 6: doesn't want to be out fox to no pun intended

808
00:44:47,360 --> 00:44:50,000
Speaker 6: and have Donald Trump ask her for one on the buck.

809
00:44:50,160 --> 00:44:52,360
Speaker 6: So there you go, it's all in the game.

810
00:44:53,480 --> 00:44:55,000
Speaker 2: Well done, Jeannie, that was pretty good.

811
00:44:55,120 --> 00:44:55,279
Speaker 9: Rick.

812
00:44:55,360 --> 00:44:58,680
Speaker 2: Do you do an empty chaired debate? If you're Kamala

813
00:44:58,719 --> 00:45:01,120
Speaker 2: Harris and you have an oppportunity a network wants to

814
00:45:01,120 --> 00:45:02,640
Speaker 2: give you an hour, you take it right.

815
00:45:03,520 --> 00:45:05,520
Speaker 8: Yeah, you take the hour as a regular interview. That's

816
00:45:05,560 --> 00:45:08,360
Speaker 8: been number before. You don't have the empty chair, but

817
00:45:08,480 --> 00:45:11,080
Speaker 8: you get an hour free airtime, and that close to

818
00:45:11,080 --> 00:45:14,239
Speaker 8: the election, that's golden. That's a lot of money would

819
00:45:14,239 --> 00:45:16,840
Speaker 8: have to be spent to buy that airtime. So I

820
00:45:16,880 --> 00:45:18,640
Speaker 8: think that she ought to try and keep the heat on.

821
00:45:18,920 --> 00:45:21,319
Speaker 8: I love debates late in the game. This thing needs

822
00:45:21,320 --> 00:45:21,720
Speaker 8: a change.

823
00:45:21,760 --> 00:45:24,440
Speaker 3: We need some excitement in this campaign. We just haven't

824
00:45:24,480 --> 00:45:25,000
Speaker 3: had enough.

825
00:45:25,960 --> 00:45:29,440
Speaker 8: And yeah, look, if Donald Trump thinks the week before

826
00:45:29,520 --> 00:45:31,759
Speaker 8: that he has a problem and needs the curate and

827
00:45:31,760 --> 00:45:33,279
Speaker 8: the only way to do it is a debate, yeah,

828
00:45:33,320 --> 00:45:36,560
Speaker 8: he'll show up. He has absolutely no shame whatsoever. We

829
00:45:36,560 --> 00:45:39,319
Speaker 8: should have learned that by now, so you know, hold

830
00:45:39,360 --> 00:45:42,800
Speaker 8: your breath and maybe we'll have another clash of the Titans.

831
00:45:43,440 --> 00:45:46,239
Speaker 4: All right, holding our breath indeed, Rick Davis of stone

832
00:45:46,280 --> 00:45:48,600
Speaker 4: Court Capital and Jeanie Shanzino the Center for the Study

833
00:45:48,600 --> 00:45:52,839
Speaker 4: of Democracy and Congress. Thank you, senior Democracy fellow at

834
00:45:52,840 --> 00:45:55,000
Speaker 4: the Center for the Study of the Presidency.

835
00:45:55,080 --> 00:45:56,359
Speaker 1: It's a big business card.

836
00:45:56,400 --> 00:45:59,879
Speaker 4: I don't know it's Monday. We appreciate our signature pulled

837
00:45:59,920 --> 00:46:02,400
Speaker 4: up panel as always. Thank you so much for joining us.

838
00:46:02,400 --> 00:46:03,759
Speaker 4: And of course we're all going to be together in

839
00:46:03,800 --> 00:46:06,640
Speaker 4: New York next week for that best presidential.

840
00:46:06,120 --> 00:46:08,000
Speaker 2: Debate special coverage. Let's take them one at a time.

841
00:46:08,040 --> 00:46:10,200
Speaker 2: Rick and Genie will certainly be there. We'll have that

842
00:46:10,239 --> 00:46:11,200
Speaker 2: debate for you right here.

843
00:46:11,200 --> 00:46:11,800
Speaker 1: I'm Bloomberg.

844
00:46:15,200 --> 00:46:18,440
Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make

845
00:46:18,440 --> 00:46:21,400
Speaker 2: sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify,

846
00:46:21,480 --> 00:46:24,080
Speaker 2: or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find

847
00:46:24,160 --> 00:46:27,400
Speaker 2: us live every weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern

848
00:46:27,680 --> 00:46:29,120
Speaker 2: at Bloomberg dot com.