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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game? Do us proud

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Speaker 1: read enough? They're running a game so smoothe so sweet,

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Speaker 1: splendid sixteen just glorious executions. Gods, all I'm looking for

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Speaker 1: is sixty percent efforts, four thousand percent of the time.

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Speaker 2: How shut with.

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Speaker 1: That shot with mind, buddy, And that's why you see

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Speaker 1: your beautiful tiers. Look at his movements, the.

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Speaker 3: Most dangerous amount of the planet.

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Speaker 1: Nobody picture them. Shut up.

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Speaker 2: I'm trying again.

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Speaker 1: The all it's left to one, the wide eyed drill refuge.

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Speaker 3: How old Earth picked that happens?

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Speaker 2: Hello everybody, Welcome back to Wonderful the Soccer Betting Podcast,

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Speaker 2: brought to you by the Action Network and our sponsors

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Speaker 2: BET three sixty five, the world's favorite sports book brand.

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Speaker 2: Sign up with promo code Action to get BET three

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Speaker 2: six to five exclusive sign up offer in New Jersey

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Speaker 2: and Colorado. Bet one dollar on any game, get two

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Speaker 2: hundred free. I'm Michael Lebuff and joining me as always

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Speaker 2: are my co hosts and friends Anthony Debundo and BJ Cunningham,

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Speaker 2: and we're here to break down match Week one of

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Speaker 2: the UEFA Champions League coming your way Tuesday and Wednesday.

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Speaker 2: Let's start with PSG versus Juventus Tuesday at three pm.

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Speaker 2: PSG minus three hundred at Bet three sixty five Juventus

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Speaker 2: seven to one on the money line to draw US

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Speaker 2: plus four fifty. You've a three and oh wind draw

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Speaker 2: loss in Syria. A not off to an auspicious start

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Speaker 2: when you consider who they've played so swallow Samdoria, Roma,

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Speaker 2: Spezzia and Fiorentina. But their golder French is good seven

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Speaker 2: goals for two goals against and they're allowing less than

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Speaker 2: one expecta goals per match a. PSG are doing what

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Speaker 2: they normally do and just running through league ooh five

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Speaker 2: one to oh wind draw loss. It does seem that

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Speaker 2: both of these teams, just because of their brand, usually

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Speaker 2: do get inflated when we talk Champions League. I don't

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Speaker 2: think that that's the case here. I think this odd

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Speaker 2: These odds kind of look correct on the money line here.

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Speaker 2: PSG are just a couple tieers better than Juventus right

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Speaker 2: now we're considering where you have been for the piss

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Speaker 2: two years or so. In PSG they look better. There

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Speaker 2: seems to be a better kind of spirit to the

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Speaker 2: team this season. BJ break this one down.

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Speaker 1: I actually think PSG is a little bit over valued here.

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Speaker 1: There's no way I'm playing Uventus right now, mainly due

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Speaker 1: to the fact that Pogas still out, Gias is still out,

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Speaker 1: so I don't really know where the attacking threat is

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Speaker 1: going to be for Juventus. But if you're somebody who's

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Speaker 1: just listening to our podcast for the first time, you

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Speaker 1: didn't listen to us last year, I am a big

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Speaker 1: time PSG hater. I don't think they're as good as

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Speaker 1: everybody thinks they are. I do not think they should

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Speaker 1: be the second favorite to win the Champions League. Yes,

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Speaker 1: they got the best front three in the world, but

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Speaker 1: their midfield and their defense is not up to par

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Speaker 1: with the rest of the teams near the top of

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Speaker 1: the top of the odds board. I mean, last year

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Speaker 1: in league they had a plus one expected gold differential

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Speaker 1: per ninety minutes, which was fifth in Europe's top five leagues.

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Speaker 1: France is the fifth most difficult league in Europe by

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Speaker 1: UEF coefficients, and based on my projections, their point three

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Speaker 1: to four goals worse than Syria. Ah So, even if

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Speaker 1: we look at their Champions League run last season, even

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Speaker 1: if you include the two matches with Club Bruges, they

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Speaker 1: only had a plus two point five expected gold differential.

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Speaker 1: That's not the second favorite to win the Champions League.

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Speaker 1: That team should be playing way better unexpected goals than

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Speaker 1: plus two point five. Now, I really wanted to take

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Speaker 1: Uventus in this one, but they were so overrated last year.

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Speaker 1: They've been pathetic to start this season. Last season only

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Speaker 1: plus zero point three to five expected gold differential per

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Speaker 1: ninety minutes. You know, throughout their Champions League run last

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Speaker 1: season they got to the round of sixteen. If you

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Speaker 1: removed the two matches against Malmo, they had a minus

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Speaker 1: one point five expected gold differential throughout all the matches

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Speaker 1: against Chelsea Zenit and Viial. But Uventus was, like you

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Speaker 1: mentioned Michael Eventus was a good defensive team. They were

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Speaker 1: one expected goal allowed for ninet minutes. They're doing the

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Speaker 1: same thing this year, and they under a legry. They

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Speaker 1: have the capabilities of setting up very defensive and being

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Speaker 1: able to hold off PSG for large stretches of the match.

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Speaker 1: So I only have two point three goals projected for

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Speaker 1: this one, So I'm going to take under three goals

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Speaker 1: a minus one o three and if PSG continues to

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Speaker 1: get steamed and I can get Juventus at plus two,

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna have to take them.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm with you. I think the unders is the

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Speaker 2: way to go here. It just seems like Juventus is

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Speaker 2: going to show up to Paris to just shut up

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Speaker 2: shot you know park.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, that's what they did against Chelsea last year too.

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Speaker 2: Pretty much and try to hit on the counter. We've

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Speaker 2: seen it out of Allegray in both of his stints

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Speaker 2: in Turin, Anthony, are you making three for three here

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Speaker 2: on the under Yeah? I will.

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Speaker 3: And again I think this all comes down to Allegray

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Speaker 3: one number one. I do think PSG have made improvements defensively,

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Speaker 3: they look better. I mean it's only been six matches,

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Speaker 3: but PSG has plus two point four to four expecta

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Speaker 3: gole difference per ninety in France. Now, I think it's

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Speaker 3: still too early to draw a realistic sample from that

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Speaker 3: six matches. I'd like at least ten. They have played Monaco,

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Speaker 3: so they've at least played somebody who's you know, in

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Speaker 3: the upper tier of the league. I do want to

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Speaker 3: see a couple more games against difficult teams before I

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Speaker 3: kind of make my overall determination. But they did put

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Speaker 3: seven pass lell as well, so some very encouraging signs

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Speaker 3: that this PSG team is better than that of the

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Speaker 3: Pochatino team, and given what we know about their manager,

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Speaker 3: I would believe in that as well. But I think

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Speaker 3: this is a little inflated here. I think the Uve

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Speaker 3: attack is going to have major problems again PSG's improved

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Speaker 3: defense Juventus. I mean it's literally Vohovich or nothing right now.

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Speaker 3: They're getting no production out of anybody else. They just

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Speaker 3: sold Zacharia, like you mentioned Pagba and Kieza. There's just

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Speaker 3: not de Bala is gone, like, there is not attacking

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Speaker 3: production in this team to sustain consistent attacks, and we've

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Speaker 3: seen it in the numbers. I mean, they had an

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Speaker 3: eight shot showing against Sampdoria, who just lost to Verona today.

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Speaker 3: They had a very flat showing against Fiorentina. They scored

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Speaker 3: in the first ten minutes of the game Millik scored,

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Speaker 3: which you know, Andrews Millik is not a Champions League

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Speaker 3: level striker at this point in his career, so they

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Speaker 3: finished that game with less than one expected goal. They

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Speaker 3: scored in the first minute against Roma, so they have

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Speaker 3: not produced outside of the first couple of minutes of

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Speaker 3: these games this season. And I have major doubts about

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Speaker 3: their ability to score goals, and I think they're gonna

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Speaker 3: They're gonna probably try to play for a low scoring

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Speaker 3: game here, and for that reason I like under three

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Speaker 3: point twenty five. Under threes are good as well. I

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Speaker 3: only have two point seven to two projected. I don't

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Speaker 3: project every Champions League match. I haven't gotten to that

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Speaker 3: point yet where I can build out all the other

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Speaker 3: smaller leagues like BJ does. But we have two top

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Speaker 3: five league teams going at it. I can to build

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Speaker 3: out a number, and I only got to two point seven,

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Speaker 3: So I'm happy to take the under here.

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Speaker 2: All right, three for three on the under in PSG

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Speaker 2: juve that one. Like I said, It's Tuesday three pm.

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Speaker 2: Group H. The other Group H match is a weird

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Speaker 2: one Benfica minus five hundred against Maccabee Haifa coming out

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Speaker 2: of Israel twelve to one. On the money line, they

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Speaker 2: are the draw is six to one. No idea what

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Speaker 2: to expect out of this Israeli team, However, this is

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Speaker 2: their path in through qualifying. They beat Red Star Belgrade,

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Speaker 2: Olympiacos and Appleon Limasol out of Cyprus, so they've been

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Speaker 2: playing like high stakes soccer. For a little while here.

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Speaker 2: They're in the competition for about a month and a

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Speaker 2: half now, so if there was a game to back them,

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Speaker 2: I think in this group it's this one. If you're

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Speaker 2: gonna have a little fun with Haifa on twelve to one,

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Speaker 2: so maybe, but BJ you are looking at something else.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I kind of like the under three goals here.

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Speaker 1: So Benefica was just a really really good defensive team

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Speaker 1: last season and the portion Easy League only allowed point

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Speaker 1: eighty five expected goals per match, and so far this season,

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Speaker 1: in their first five matches, they've only allowed a total

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Speaker 1: of one point nine expected goals. They haven't played many

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Speaker 1: billion tough competition, but that's still really impressive. I think

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Speaker 1: this is a match where they're gonna be able to

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Speaker 1: just dominate possession because I'd imagine Haifa comes out incredibly conservative,

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Speaker 1: similar to you know, I kind of view this match

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Speaker 1: similar to you know, the Benefica matches against Dinamo Kiev

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Speaker 1: last season, if you want to look for a team

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Speaker 1: that's kind of I don't know, maybe similar style or

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Speaker 1: on park because we can't really take much from the

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Speaker 1: Byron Munich and Barcelona matches that Benafica had in the

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Speaker 1: group stage. But I mean Dinamo Kiev. Both those matches

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Speaker 1: against Dinamo Kiev were under two point five expected goals Haifa,

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Speaker 1: it's interesting. So the Champions League qualifying matches against Reds

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Speaker 1: Tara bill Grade, they were able to hold over fifty

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Speaker 1: percent possession in both matches, which is kind of impressive

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Speaker 1: because bill Grade has been your Europa League mainstay for

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Speaker 1: quite a while. Now nine goals across the two legs,

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Speaker 1: so maybe they'll come out aggressive. But if you look

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Speaker 1: at last season they were in the Europa Conference League

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Speaker 1: with in a group with Fine art Unyan Bilin and

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Speaker 1: Slavia Prague. We don't have credible expected gold data from

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Speaker 1: the Europa Conference League, which kind of sucks. But they

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Speaker 1: only scored two goals in the entire group stage and

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Speaker 1: not one of their six matches in the group stage

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Speaker 1: went over three goals. Plus they're still playing under the

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Speaker 1: same manager and the same players, so I projected this

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Speaker 1: out at two point three goals, So under three goals

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Speaker 1: at minus one ten, I'm gonna take it all right on.

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Speaker 2: To Group F now Celtic plus four to twenty five

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Speaker 2: hosting Real Madrid, defending champions under Carlo Ancelotti minus one

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Speaker 2: sixty seven. The draw here is plus three thirty three

189
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Speaker 2: Madrid four and La Liga off and running already eleven

190
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Speaker 2: goals for four goals against. And this there, extreet, is

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Speaker 2: just about the same. Celtic at six o and oh

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Speaker 2: and coming off a pasting of their eternal rival Rangers

193
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Speaker 2: in the old Firm Derby this past weekend twenty five

194
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Speaker 2: goals for one goal against in the Scottish Premiership under

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Speaker 2: and post the Koglu I can never say his name right.

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Speaker 2: Madrid seemed to be an interesting team to handicap in

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Speaker 2: in Champions League because they they almost paid themselves a

198
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Speaker 2: little bit. They might start solow. We saw them do

199
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Speaker 2: that last last season with their groups which included Sheriff

200
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Speaker 2: out of FC Sheriff out of Moldova or Transnistria. So I,

201
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Speaker 2: like I was saying with hype, I think, if this

202
00:10:13,000 --> 00:10:15,199
Speaker 2: is not a bad spot to go against Real Madrid

203
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Speaker 2: first match, They're traveling to a really tough environment in Glasgow,

204
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Speaker 2: and I mean this is a good number. I think,

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Speaker 2: simple as that on a team that isn't good for him.

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Speaker 2: So I'll be on Celtic on the money line here, Anthony,

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Speaker 2: what do you have for us?

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Speaker 1: Yeah?

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Speaker 3: I'm on Celtic as well. I like the plus one.

210
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Speaker 3: I may also play a battts and over two and

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Speaker 3: a half. I do think this game could be relatively open.

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Speaker 3: Real Madrid have not fixed their defensive issues whatsoever. Early

213
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Speaker 3: season La Liga indications are pretty mediocre on that front.

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Speaker 3: They've conceded around and expected goal per match. Some have

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Speaker 3: been worse. And so I'm a little bit uncertain about

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Speaker 3: Real Madrid because on one hand, we know about last

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Speaker 3: year when they were incredibly fortunate and we don't have

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Speaker 3: to get into all of that again. But they ran

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Speaker 3: really well because Ben'sman and Venetias had incredible finishing seasons.

220
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Speaker 3: Can we expect that to continue? Probably not, But what

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Speaker 3: if the level of Real Madrid as a team got

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Speaker 3: better and the early indications are maybe right, like too

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Speaker 3: of many and more kind of inga minutes in the midfield,

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Speaker 3: replacing some of the Casamuro Madrich minutes could help this team.

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Speaker 3: But overall, I mean, they kind of just ran it

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Speaker 3: back for the most part, and I'm not quite sure

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Speaker 3: what to make of it. But I will say Celtic

228
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Speaker 3: last year in the Europa League did have a pretty

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Speaker 3: decent showing. They were about even unexpected goal difference in

230
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Speaker 3: a group that was relatively solid included Leverkusen and Rayal Bettis.

231
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Speaker 3: They didn't ultimately get out of the group, but did

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Speaker 3: finish third, right around similar numbers to Bettis, and so

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Speaker 3: if you project them close to that, you can get

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Speaker 3: to this number at them being plus one and a

235
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Speaker 3: bit undervalued, and that's where I see this. So I'm

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Speaker 3: going to take Celtic at home plus one.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think home field advantage here matters considerably. Going

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Speaker 2: to the East end of Glasgow playing in at Celtic Park,

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Speaker 2: it's not going to be easy and it's just the

240
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Speaker 2: type of match where sometimes real Madrid, like I said,

241
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Speaker 2: I don't know if it's pacing themselves. They know that

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Speaker 2: they can turn it out at any time and get

243
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Speaker 2: out of this group. So I think could be a

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Speaker 2: flat spot for him. Considering that they're the defending champs too.

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Speaker 2: It's not like, you know, they just three months four

246
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Speaker 2: months ago now played Liverpool in a highly emotional final,

247
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Speaker 2: so if they don't get up for their first group

248
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Speaker 2: stage match, you can kind of understand it. BJ.

249
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Speaker 1: What do you got, Yeah, I'm going Celtic plus one

250
00:12:37,920 --> 00:12:40,280
Speaker 1: and minus one to fifteen as well. Anthony doesn't want

251
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Speaker 1: to go through it. I kind of want to go through.

252
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Speaker 1: With Real Madrid. During the Champions League last season.

253
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Speaker 3: I don't.

254
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Speaker 1: I lost twenty one point six expected goals for nineteen

255
00:12:47,640 --> 00:12:52,079
Speaker 1: expected goals against. That's including four matches against FC Sheriff

256
00:12:52,200 --> 00:12:56,760
Speaker 1: and Shocktar twenty eight actual goals for fourteen actual goals against,

257
00:12:56,760 --> 00:13:00,640
Speaker 1: so essentially over performed by a little over eleven during

258
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Speaker 1: their entire Champions League run. That's how crazy Benzima and

259
00:13:04,000 --> 00:13:08,880
Speaker 1: Venetius Junior's finishing rate was last season, and Courtois was

260
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Speaker 1: incredible in net Now they.

261
00:13:10,480 --> 00:13:12,280
Speaker 2: Just got a great manager. That's I think that's part

262
00:13:12,280 --> 00:13:12,800
Speaker 2: of it, right.

263
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Speaker 1: It's exactly, But I mean, listen, last season, even in

264
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Speaker 1: La Liga, you know, one of the more probably the

265
00:13:20,320 --> 00:13:23,560
Speaker 1: most defensive league among the Europe's top five leagues, they

266
00:13:23,559 --> 00:13:25,760
Speaker 1: allowed one point two to three expected goals per match.

267
00:13:25,800 --> 00:13:28,480
Speaker 1: That was fifteenth. In La Liga they allowed one point

268
00:13:28,520 --> 00:13:30,800
Speaker 1: three big scoring chances for match that was thirteenth, and

269
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Speaker 1: Laaliga the champions did this, The champions of La Liga

270
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Speaker 1: did this. So yes, I'm taking Celtic plus one. I

271
00:13:37,320 --> 00:13:39,920
Speaker 1: have only have Real Madrid projected at plus one oh five.

272
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Speaker 1: If you look at five thirty eight and they only

273
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Speaker 1: have Real Madrid at forty two percent. Celtic in the

274
00:13:44,000 --> 00:13:46,640
Speaker 1: Scottish Premier League last year two point six expected goals

275
00:13:46,679 --> 00:13:50,000
Speaker 1: four per ninety minutes only point ninety five allowed. Anthony

276
00:13:50,000 --> 00:13:52,360
Speaker 1: also mentioned the Europa League group that they were in

277
00:13:52,520 --> 00:13:54,600
Speaker 1: put up six point nine expected goals in four matches

278
00:13:54,600 --> 00:13:57,800
Speaker 1: against Bettison and Leverkusen offensively, so this is a good

279
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Speaker 1: offensive team. And like we already mentioned our preview pod,

280
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Speaker 1: they brought back everybody from last year. They didn't sell

281
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Speaker 1: any of their you know, highly touted players. Everybody's coming back,

282
00:14:04,840 --> 00:14:07,640
Speaker 1: same managers coming back, and Mike Lardy mentioned it probably

283
00:14:07,640 --> 00:14:10,160
Speaker 1: one of the best atmospheres in all honestly all of Europe.

284
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Speaker 1: It's going to be an electric atmosphere there in Glasgow.

285
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Speaker 1: So Celtic plus one and minus one fifteen for May

286
00:14:16,280 --> 00:14:16,640
Speaker 1: as well.

287
00:14:17,040 --> 00:14:20,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, from from the east end of Glasgow to Germany. Now,

288
00:14:20,440 --> 00:14:23,360
Speaker 2: for Leipe's sake, minus five hundred at bet three sixty five.

289
00:14:23,400 --> 00:14:26,160
Speaker 2: Shock Dart do nets out of Ukraine playing their home

290
00:14:26,160 --> 00:14:30,240
Speaker 2: games in Warsaw, Poland because of the war, shocktars twelve

291
00:14:30,280 --> 00:14:31,760
Speaker 2: to one on the money line. To draw here is

292
00:14:31,800 --> 00:14:34,160
Speaker 2: six to one. This is an extreme case of this,

293
00:14:34,320 --> 00:14:38,480
Speaker 2: but the Champions League always throws matches or matchups like

294
00:14:38,480 --> 00:14:42,840
Speaker 2: this together where it's you're handicapping, Yeah, the numbers. You

295
00:14:42,920 --> 00:14:45,400
Speaker 2: have to figure out what a team's form in the

296
00:14:45,480 --> 00:14:48,120
Speaker 2: league means, are they taking the Champions League more seriously

297
00:14:48,120 --> 00:14:50,000
Speaker 2: than their league whatever? All this stuff, and then you

298
00:14:50,120 --> 00:14:53,200
Speaker 2: got stuff like this where shock Dar basically got raided

299
00:14:53,280 --> 00:14:55,840
Speaker 2: and you can understand why their players got out of

300
00:14:55,880 --> 00:14:58,880
Speaker 2: the situation and transfers out of there. They're not playing

301
00:14:58,920 --> 00:15:01,960
Speaker 2: in their home stadium, they're playing out of Poland, so

302
00:15:02,080 --> 00:15:03,840
Speaker 2: you don't really know where the floor is here. But

303
00:15:03,880 --> 00:15:07,080
Speaker 2: it's also you also don't it's just almost impossible to

304
00:15:07,080 --> 00:15:09,000
Speaker 2: get a true read on the team. So if you

305
00:15:09,080 --> 00:15:11,160
Speaker 2: were going to bet this game and you wanted to bet,

306
00:15:11,400 --> 00:15:14,080
Speaker 2: you know, Leipzig minus three or at like three to

307
00:15:14,160 --> 00:15:16,520
Speaker 2: one or minus two and a half plus one forty five,

308
00:15:16,560 --> 00:15:19,560
Speaker 2: whatever it was, I think that's probably the most logical

309
00:15:20,080 --> 00:15:20,480
Speaker 2: way to.

310
00:15:20,440 --> 00:15:20,960
Speaker 1: Do this one.

311
00:15:21,000 --> 00:15:24,040
Speaker 2: But Anthony, this one just just feels like a pass,

312
00:15:24,160 --> 00:15:27,520
Speaker 2: especially considering the way Leipzig have gotten off in the

313
00:15:27,560 --> 00:15:29,640
Speaker 2: Bundesliga to one, two and two start.

314
00:15:29,880 --> 00:15:33,480
Speaker 3: Yeah, Bleipsig have been quite poor in the Bundesliga, some

315
00:15:33,520 --> 00:15:35,320
Speaker 3: of its variants, some of it's I mean, they were

316
00:15:35,440 --> 00:15:39,320
Speaker 3: very flat Saturday against Frankfurt, but this is a total

317
00:15:39,360 --> 00:15:41,800
Speaker 3: pass for me. I can't I can't even begin to

318
00:15:41,800 --> 00:15:45,240
Speaker 3: project Shaktar given all the outgoings. They've only played three

319
00:15:45,240 --> 00:15:48,160
Speaker 3: matches this year, They've scored two goals, they haven't conceded

320
00:15:48,160 --> 00:15:51,320
Speaker 3: any but they're very hard to handicap right now and

321
00:15:51,320 --> 00:15:53,320
Speaker 3: get a true read on. And so I think I'm

322
00:15:53,320 --> 00:15:54,720
Speaker 3: gonna be passing a lot of their matches. I mean,

323
00:15:54,760 --> 00:15:57,080
Speaker 3: we'll see how they look. Of course, they'll probably come

324
00:15:57,080 --> 00:15:58,960
Speaker 3: out and win this one and then we'll all get

325
00:15:58,960 --> 00:16:00,760
Speaker 3: in and then they'll get you know, back on Earth.

326
00:16:00,800 --> 00:16:03,360
Speaker 3: But really I'll be watching their match because I'm kind

327
00:16:03,360 --> 00:16:05,880
Speaker 3: of curious, like there's a lot to learn, But in

328
00:16:05,960 --> 00:16:07,840
Speaker 3: terms of what we basically have right now, I would

329
00:16:07,840 --> 00:16:09,200
Speaker 3: not feel confident bet either side.

330
00:16:09,200 --> 00:16:09,520
Speaker 1: I would.

331
00:16:09,760 --> 00:16:11,480
Speaker 3: I mean, I'd almost got shocked Tar if I had to,

332
00:16:11,920 --> 00:16:13,360
Speaker 3: just because I think it is a little steep for

333
00:16:13,440 --> 00:16:15,720
Speaker 3: Leipzig to be a minus five hundred home favorite against

334
00:16:15,760 --> 00:16:18,640
Speaker 3: the team who you know, still has some players around

335
00:16:18,720 --> 00:16:22,520
Speaker 3: who have experienced in the situation, but overall does not

336
00:16:22,520 --> 00:16:24,760
Speaker 3: look like I'll be getting involved.

337
00:16:24,520 --> 00:16:26,960
Speaker 2: Here all right. From Group F to Group G another

338
00:16:27,000 --> 00:16:29,920
Speaker 2: three pm kickoff, Savilla seven to one at home hosting

339
00:16:30,040 --> 00:16:33,760
Speaker 2: man City tournament favorites there minus two seventy five for

340
00:16:33,840 --> 00:16:35,840
Speaker 2: this match at bet three six five the draw is

341
00:16:35,960 --> 00:16:38,840
Speaker 2: four to one. Sevilla winless out of the gates in

342
00:16:38,880 --> 00:16:42,120
Speaker 2: La Liga one draw, three losses and four matches three

343
00:16:42,120 --> 00:16:44,880
Speaker 2: goals for eight goals against their expected goals, paying a

344
00:16:44,880 --> 00:16:47,520
Speaker 2: little bit of a rosier picture, but not much five

345
00:16:47,560 --> 00:16:51,240
Speaker 2: point one expectacles for eight point eight expectacles against. They

346
00:16:51,280 --> 00:16:53,200
Speaker 2: have a reputation I think it's well earned of being

347
00:16:53,200 --> 00:16:55,600
Speaker 2: a good tournament team, but that's not this. They've now

348
00:16:55,880 --> 00:16:58,600
Speaker 2: kind of turned the roster over from from those teams

349
00:16:58,600 --> 00:17:00,880
Speaker 2: that went on Those are your Open League runs where

350
00:17:00,880 --> 00:17:02,200
Speaker 2: it seemed like every year they were either in the

351
00:17:02,240 --> 00:17:04,240
Speaker 2: final or winning it. This is another one where I

352
00:17:04,280 --> 00:17:07,399
Speaker 2: think it's maybe an under. We always talk about the

353
00:17:07,440 --> 00:17:10,560
Speaker 2: Premier League part of this podcast at City over so

354
00:17:10,560 --> 00:17:13,800
Speaker 2: are usually pretty inflated because of the players they have,

355
00:17:13,960 --> 00:17:17,520
Speaker 2: But I'll be passing on this one. BJ. What do

356
00:17:17,560 --> 00:17:17,840
Speaker 2: you have.

357
00:17:18,080 --> 00:17:19,879
Speaker 1: I'm taking City minus one and a half, which is

358
00:17:19,960 --> 00:17:21,760
Speaker 1: like one of the first times I'm actually betting City

359
00:17:22,160 --> 00:17:24,720
Speaker 1: as a favorite on a spread like this. But Savia, look,

360
00:17:24,880 --> 00:17:28,040
Speaker 1: they look horrible without Diego, Carlos and Kunde. I mean

361
00:17:28,080 --> 00:17:31,000
Speaker 1: this past week a ge'st Barcelona four point five expected

362
00:17:31,000 --> 00:17:34,320
Speaker 1: goals allowed, nine big scoring chants allowed. Even in their

363
00:17:34,320 --> 00:17:37,520
Speaker 1: past three matches against Osasuna, alex Leide and Almeria they

364
00:17:37,520 --> 00:17:40,600
Speaker 1: allowed four point two expected goals to those three teams.

365
00:17:40,640 --> 00:17:42,680
Speaker 1: So what do you think Earling Holland and Manchester City

366
00:17:42,720 --> 00:17:45,040
Speaker 1: are going to do? I mean City fourteen point three

367
00:17:45,080 --> 00:17:48,920
Speaker 1: expected goals and six matches I mean eighteen big scoring chances.

368
00:17:49,000 --> 00:17:51,320
Speaker 1: On the flip side, they've kind of been a little

369
00:17:51,400 --> 00:17:54,239
Speaker 1: unlucky defensively. You know that they've conceded six goals off

370
00:17:54,280 --> 00:17:57,840
Speaker 1: of three expected And this is the same Savia team

371
00:17:58,080 --> 00:18:01,359
Speaker 1: that was one of the biggest performers in all of Europe.

372
00:18:01,440 --> 00:18:04,080
Speaker 1: I mean plus twenty three actual goal differential, only a

373
00:18:04,080 --> 00:18:07,800
Speaker 1: plus five expected gold differential over all of last season,

374
00:18:07,800 --> 00:18:10,920
Speaker 1: which was actually thirty ninth among Europe's top five leagues.

375
00:18:10,960 --> 00:18:13,280
Speaker 1: So I have City spread projected at minus one point

376
00:18:13,359 --> 00:18:16,600
Speaker 1: four two. So minus one and a half at plus

377
00:18:16,600 --> 00:18:17,919
Speaker 1: one fifteen is good enough for me.

378
00:18:18,200 --> 00:18:21,320
Speaker 2: Play City, Anthony, what do you have for this one.

379
00:18:21,520 --> 00:18:23,040
Speaker 3: I mean, we could take it even further, right, Like

380
00:18:23,080 --> 00:18:28,480
Speaker 3: Savilla was a Pot one team and got a very

381
00:18:28,520 --> 00:18:30,400
Speaker 3: favorable grocery, and he was a Pot two team last year,

382
00:18:30,400 --> 00:18:34,440
Speaker 3: got a very favorable group with Leo, Salzburg and Wolfsburg

383
00:18:35,080 --> 00:18:37,159
Speaker 3: in the Champions League, and then finished that group with

384
00:18:37,200 --> 00:18:40,080
Speaker 3: a negative expected goal difference. So let's not like kid ourselves.

385
00:18:40,280 --> 00:18:43,600
Speaker 3: Savia was a very mediocre European team last year. They

386
00:18:43,600 --> 00:18:46,040
Speaker 3: finished mid table as far as I'm concerned in La Liga,

387
00:18:46,440 --> 00:18:48,440
Speaker 3: and they made it into the Champions League on pure

388
00:18:48,520 --> 00:18:51,440
Speaker 3: variants and some low potagy magic and some good finishing.

389
00:18:51,800 --> 00:18:53,520
Speaker 3: And they got worse in the off season, losing some

390
00:18:53,560 --> 00:18:55,359
Speaker 3: of their best players, and now they're much worse. I

391
00:18:55,520 --> 00:18:57,800
Speaker 3: like City, I may take a shutout win. I may

392
00:18:57,880 --> 00:19:00,439
Speaker 3: join bj on the minus one and a half. I

393
00:19:00,480 --> 00:19:03,199
Speaker 3: think City will be very up for this match to

394
00:19:03,320 --> 00:19:06,000
Speaker 3: make a statement and kind of grab their foot in

395
00:19:06,000 --> 00:19:08,919
Speaker 3: the group here. I just don't see anyway. This is

396
00:19:09,080 --> 00:19:12,200
Speaker 3: very similar to what Barcelona just did this to Sevilla.

397
00:19:12,600 --> 00:19:14,720
Speaker 3: Like you said, the narrative about the tournament stuff is

398
00:19:14,840 --> 00:19:15,440
Speaker 3: very overdone.

399
00:19:15,520 --> 00:19:15,760
Speaker 1: Now.

400
00:19:16,320 --> 00:19:17,840
Speaker 3: They just haven't been a very good team. I mean,

401
00:19:17,840 --> 00:19:19,679
Speaker 3: you can look over the years you don't have to

402
00:19:19,680 --> 00:19:21,760
Speaker 3: go back that far to see that.

403
00:19:21,840 --> 00:19:22,000
Speaker 1: Oh.

404
00:19:22,000 --> 00:19:24,000
Speaker 3: Look, Sevia is actually like a pretty good team in

405
00:19:24,040 --> 00:19:26,600
Speaker 3: Spain who deserved a top four finish because it was

406
00:19:26,640 --> 00:19:29,159
Speaker 3: literally the year before where they were a pretty good

407
00:19:29,160 --> 00:19:31,040
Speaker 3: team who deserved a top four finish, and that is

408
00:19:31,080 --> 00:19:33,600
Speaker 3: just not the case anymore with this team. They've regressed

409
00:19:34,080 --> 00:19:36,600
Speaker 3: pretty hard and there's not much to like about them.

410
00:19:36,880 --> 00:19:40,159
Speaker 2: The other group cheap match is Dortmund minus three hundred

411
00:19:40,320 --> 00:19:43,480
Speaker 2: Copenhagen plus seven fifty on the road to draw is

412
00:19:43,480 --> 00:19:45,919
Speaker 2: plus four to fifty. Anthony, right back to you for

413
00:19:46,000 --> 00:19:49,160
Speaker 2: this one. Dortmund often running pretty well I think in Bundesliga,

414
00:19:49,760 --> 00:19:53,480
Speaker 2: Copenhagen come in four wins four losses in the Danish Superliga.

415
00:19:53,640 --> 00:19:56,040
Speaker 2: This is a good spot, I think to see the level,

416
00:19:56,160 --> 00:20:01,280
Speaker 2: like just how far Copenhagen is from a solid but

417
00:20:01,359 --> 00:20:05,639
Speaker 2: not elite Champions League team, especially on the road. Obvious

418
00:20:05,640 --> 00:20:07,720
Speaker 2: saying this one out you won't be though.

419
00:20:07,760 --> 00:20:10,280
Speaker 3: Yeah, this is a hold your nose under for me. Look,

420
00:20:10,280 --> 00:20:14,000
Speaker 3: I don't love Copenhagen as a team overall, they're pretty mediocre.

421
00:20:14,080 --> 00:20:17,879
Speaker 3: They did have a very solid two leg performance without

422
00:20:17,920 --> 00:20:22,320
Speaker 3: the ball against Trebonspor, the Turkish team, and I think

423
00:20:22,320 --> 00:20:24,239
Speaker 3: that gives me some encouragement for their ability to keep

424
00:20:24,280 --> 00:20:26,760
Speaker 3: some clean sheets or to at least challenge Dortmund, But

425
00:20:26,840 --> 00:20:29,399
Speaker 3: really this is more about Dortmund. The number is just

426
00:20:29,440 --> 00:20:31,080
Speaker 3: a little bit too high for me on this team,

427
00:20:31,119 --> 00:20:34,000
Speaker 3: and the reality is that Dortman's attack this year has

428
00:20:34,040 --> 00:20:36,720
Speaker 3: not been what it was since Holand left and they

429
00:20:36,880 --> 00:20:39,040
Speaker 3: went and got Anthony Madest. But Modest is not putting

430
00:20:39,119 --> 00:20:42,200
Speaker 3: up the same shot numbers. You look at his past history,

431
00:20:42,280 --> 00:20:46,440
Speaker 3: nothing suggests he's going to be a Champions League level striker.

432
00:20:46,800 --> 00:20:48,600
Speaker 3: He's a little bit below that. He's not quite on

433
00:20:48,640 --> 00:20:52,399
Speaker 3: that level. So you know, no halla a right now

434
00:20:52,840 --> 00:20:55,560
Speaker 3: and Modest being their main point man, they're not getting

435
00:20:55,640 --> 00:20:58,560
Speaker 3: enough shots and enough consistent production to warrant this total

436
00:20:58,560 --> 00:20:59,960
Speaker 3: being that high. And look, you've seen it in the

437
00:21:00,040 --> 00:21:03,040
Speaker 3: Bundesliga matches. They played that thriller with Verne Bremen that

438
00:21:03,080 --> 00:21:05,080
Speaker 3: was two to three, but really the attack created less

439
00:21:05,119 --> 00:21:08,080
Speaker 3: than one expected goal and all in the second biggest chance,

440
00:21:08,160 --> 00:21:10,720
Speaker 3: the biggest chance they created all came on a counter

441
00:21:10,720 --> 00:21:13,840
Speaker 3: attack when they already at one zero, and so that

442
00:21:13,960 --> 00:21:15,800
Speaker 3: they struggled to create in that game. They only put

443
00:21:15,840 --> 00:21:18,760
Speaker 3: up one against Hawfenheim, so this team is not like

444
00:21:18,800 --> 00:21:20,840
Speaker 3: they're not a dominant attacking side when you look at

445
00:21:21,000 --> 00:21:24,639
Speaker 3: some of their numbers, and outside of one match this season,

446
00:21:24,680 --> 00:21:28,119
Speaker 3: they really struggled to consistently create big chances, and that

447
00:21:28,160 --> 00:21:30,960
Speaker 3: was against Hartas. So I like the under here. It's

448
00:21:30,960 --> 00:21:33,040
Speaker 3: been a dormant unders have been a painful endeavor in

449
00:21:33,080 --> 00:21:35,480
Speaker 3: the past because their defense has really struggled. But I

450
00:21:35,480 --> 00:21:37,119
Speaker 3: don't think they'll have a ton of issues here in

451
00:21:37,160 --> 00:21:42,000
Speaker 3: this match, especially at home. Copenhagen likely very conservative and

452
00:21:42,640 --> 00:21:45,880
Speaker 3: won't cause too many problems. Again Dortmann's defense, I think

453
00:21:45,880 --> 00:21:48,880
Speaker 3: they made legitimate improvements there, so I'm taking the under.

454
00:21:49,080 --> 00:21:51,520
Speaker 2: That's the twelve forty five pm kickoff. I let's move

455
00:21:51,520 --> 00:21:55,879
Speaker 2: over to Group E. Salzburg plus two forty hosting AC Milan,

456
00:21:56,280 --> 00:21:59,360
Speaker 2: the champ defending champions in Syria. AH they're plus one

457
00:21:59,400 --> 00:22:02,560
Speaker 2: ten here is plus two to fifty. Salzburg off to

458
00:22:02,640 --> 00:22:05,520
Speaker 2: a good start in the Austrian Budesliga six to oh

459
00:22:05,600 --> 00:22:08,840
Speaker 2: to one wind draw loss eighteen goals for three against.

460
00:22:09,080 --> 00:22:11,639
Speaker 2: They made it to the round of sixteen last season

461
00:22:12,320 --> 00:22:14,840
Speaker 2: in the Champions League, drew with Byron one one in

462
00:22:14,880 --> 00:22:17,040
Speaker 2: the first like and then got pasted basically by a

463
00:22:17,040 --> 00:22:19,680
Speaker 2: touchdown in the second. Like Milan off to a three

464
00:22:19,680 --> 00:22:22,240
Speaker 2: to two and oh win draw loss start in Syria,

465
00:22:22,280 --> 00:22:25,440
Speaker 2: a ten goals for five against nine point six expected

466
00:22:25,480 --> 00:22:29,640
Speaker 2: goals for four point six against this Stefano Pioli side.

467
00:22:30,280 --> 00:22:32,800
Speaker 2: They look out for it again in a Syria ad

468
00:22:32,960 --> 00:22:35,080
Speaker 2: that has kind of just gone down in the dumps.

469
00:22:35,200 --> 00:22:38,399
Speaker 2: I would be close to playing Lalan here as a

470
00:22:38,400 --> 00:22:41,399
Speaker 2: as a road favorite. I think, like, yeah, we know

471
00:22:41,440 --> 00:22:44,920
Speaker 2: Salzburg our dangerous side in this tournament. They they'll probably

472
00:22:44,920 --> 00:22:47,880
Speaker 2: pull an upset or two along the way and maybe

473
00:22:47,960 --> 00:22:51,800
Speaker 2: sneak into the round of sixteen. But I'm going with

474
00:22:51,800 --> 00:22:54,840
Speaker 2: a favorite here. I think it's the Salsburg magic. It

475
00:22:55,000 --> 00:22:56,920
Speaker 2: just won't carry over, is what I'm saying. There was

476
00:22:56,960 --> 00:22:59,359
Speaker 2: a lot of turnover there. They're gonna be the youngest

477
00:22:59,359 --> 00:23:02,320
Speaker 2: side in the copy two as usual, So gimme Milan,

478
00:23:02,720 --> 00:23:04,720
Speaker 2: try to test it. BJ What about you?

479
00:23:04,920 --> 00:23:06,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, I actually like under two and f goals of

480
00:23:06,520 --> 00:23:09,880
Speaker 1: plus one ten. So let's go back to last Champions

481
00:23:09,960 --> 00:23:11,920
Speaker 1: League with Salsburg in the group stage. If you guys

482
00:23:12,000 --> 00:23:14,880
Speaker 1: remember they were awarded five penalties during.

483
00:23:14,640 --> 00:23:16,600
Speaker 2: The group stage, and oh I remember.

484
00:23:16,520 --> 00:23:18,320
Speaker 1: Yes, And then there was so in total there was

485
00:23:18,880 --> 00:23:20,920
Speaker 1: like half of them, right, yes, they missed half of them.

486
00:23:21,200 --> 00:23:24,480
Speaker 1: So in totally there were six penalties awarded in Salzburg

487
00:23:24,560 --> 00:23:26,400
Speaker 1: matches during the group stage, and let's remove the Bayern

488
00:23:26,440 --> 00:23:28,200
Speaker 1: match whatever they got. You know, they got paced to

489
00:23:28,240 --> 00:23:33,440
Speaker 1: seven to one. Salsburg matches only averaged one point eight

490
00:23:33,480 --> 00:23:36,639
Speaker 1: two non penalty expected goals in the group stage. Not

491
00:23:36,840 --> 00:23:39,320
Speaker 1: to mention they just lost their best two attackers, Ademi

492
00:23:39,400 --> 00:23:42,760
Speaker 1: and Brendan Aronson. And you know the reason I believe

493
00:23:42,760 --> 00:23:44,480
Speaker 1: they were solo scoring one, it has to do with

494
00:23:44,520 --> 00:23:46,080
Speaker 1: who was in their group. You know, they had Sevilla,

495
00:23:46,160 --> 00:23:48,640
Speaker 1: they had Litl, they had Wolfsburg. But also it also

496
00:23:48,720 --> 00:23:50,600
Speaker 1: is to do that they play out of before to

497
00:23:50,600 --> 00:23:52,359
Speaker 1: four too, and they do have the ability to sit

498
00:23:52,480 --> 00:23:54,879
Speaker 1: deep and to counter against some of these bigger sides,

499
00:23:54,920 --> 00:23:57,000
Speaker 1: similar to what you know AC Milan is going to do,

500
00:23:57,520 --> 00:23:59,800
Speaker 1: uh with trying to control possession and Milan, I mean

501
00:23:59,800 --> 00:24:02,320
Speaker 1: they're incredible defensive team. I mean last season during their

502
00:24:02,600 --> 00:24:04,600
Speaker 1: Syria a Tidal run they only allowed point eight two

503
00:24:04,640 --> 00:24:06,600
Speaker 1: non penalty expected goals for match. That was the best

504
00:24:06,600 --> 00:24:09,880
Speaker 1: mark in Italy. Now, offensively, they're far, you know, from

505
00:24:09,880 --> 00:24:11,919
Speaker 1: being considered a juggernaut. I mean they're only around one

506
00:24:11,960 --> 00:24:15,120
Speaker 1: point five non penalty expected goals per match, so they're

507
00:24:15,160 --> 00:24:17,359
Speaker 1: a good offensive team, but not a great one. And

508
00:24:17,520 --> 00:24:19,359
Speaker 1: I mean they listen. They were horrible in the Champions

509
00:24:19,400 --> 00:24:20,800
Speaker 1: League last season and a lot of that had to

510
00:24:20,800 --> 00:24:23,200
Speaker 1: do with their offense. They only created four point seven

511
00:24:23,240 --> 00:24:27,280
Speaker 1: expected goals over their six matches. So for me, I see,

512
00:24:27,400 --> 00:24:30,080
Speaker 1: I look for Salzburg to sit in deep defensively with

513
00:24:30,119 --> 00:24:31,720
Speaker 1: their four to four two and just basically look to

514
00:24:31,760 --> 00:24:34,439
Speaker 1: counter Milan, who is a really good defensive team. So

515
00:24:34,680 --> 00:24:36,879
Speaker 1: I only have two point two eight goals projected for

516
00:24:36,920 --> 00:24:38,560
Speaker 1: this match, so under two and a half at plus

517
00:24:38,600 --> 00:24:39,879
Speaker 1: one ten is a good enough price for me to

518
00:24:39,880 --> 00:24:40,159
Speaker 1: play it.

519
00:24:40,359 --> 00:24:43,639
Speaker 2: Anthony, what are your thoughts here Salzburg Milan.

520
00:24:43,920 --> 00:24:45,919
Speaker 3: Yeah, I would lean to the under as well. The

521
00:24:45,960 --> 00:24:47,600
Speaker 3: only thing that does scare me is that this is

522
00:24:47,600 --> 00:24:50,320
Speaker 3: in Salzburg, and so you may see a more aggressive,

523
00:24:50,359 --> 00:24:53,680
Speaker 3: pressing type of team and that kind of plays into

524
00:24:53,680 --> 00:24:56,239
Speaker 3: the Milan hands. They are very dangerous in transition. They

525
00:24:56,240 --> 00:24:59,639
Speaker 3: have players like Rafae Eliao who are so good in

526
00:24:59,640 --> 00:25:03,000
Speaker 3: transition and Sandra Tanali picking out passes. They are built

527
00:25:03,040 --> 00:25:05,800
Speaker 3: to play in space. They are not great at breaking

528
00:25:05,840 --> 00:25:07,840
Speaker 3: down low blocks, and I think we saw that last

529
00:25:07,920 --> 00:25:10,920
Speaker 3: year in the Champions League. I mean, look who was

530
00:25:10,920 --> 00:25:13,560
Speaker 3: in their group, right, They got Porto, they got ed

531
00:25:13,640 --> 00:25:18,400
Speaker 3: Lettie and I mean Liverpool's Liverpool, so they didn't really

532
00:25:19,080 --> 00:25:21,760
Speaker 3: get to get a ton of space and I think

533
00:25:21,760 --> 00:25:23,399
Speaker 3: they might get some here. So that's the only thing

534
00:25:23,400 --> 00:25:25,879
Speaker 3: that scares me from a numbers point of view. I

535
00:25:25,960 --> 00:25:29,080
Speaker 3: agree with BJ. I think you know, Milan's overformed quite

536
00:25:29,119 --> 00:25:31,600
Speaker 3: a bit for years. For the last year in attack

537
00:25:31,600 --> 00:25:34,159
Speaker 3: and they've run really, really well, but their defense has

538
00:25:34,960 --> 00:25:38,680
Speaker 3: steadily risen and Mike Manyon being healthy helps their goalkeeping

539
00:25:38,720 --> 00:25:40,280
Speaker 3: as well, which which had a little bit of a

540
00:25:40,280 --> 00:25:42,320
Speaker 3: dip last year when he was out. But again he's

541
00:25:42,480 --> 00:25:44,520
Speaker 3: a pretty good shot stopper as well, so I see

542
00:25:44,560 --> 00:25:46,399
Speaker 3: the case for the under. Hopefully there's no penalties for

543
00:25:46,480 --> 00:25:48,360
Speaker 3: Vj's bet, but I'll probably be passing here.

544
00:25:48,960 --> 00:25:51,440
Speaker 2: Let's wrap up Tuesday slate with a twelve forty five

545
00:25:51,520 --> 00:25:54,920
Speaker 2: kickoffing Group E Dinamo Zagreb out of Croatia. They're six

546
00:25:54,960 --> 00:25:57,680
Speaker 2: to one hosting Chelsea minus two twenty three. The draw

547
00:25:57,720 --> 00:26:00,840
Speaker 2: here is plus three fifty. The twelve forty five matches

548
00:26:00,920 --> 00:26:04,040
Speaker 2: or the Dortmund match, and then this one featuring two

549
00:26:04,200 --> 00:26:06,280
Speaker 2: big favorites. I could see a lot of people just

550
00:26:06,480 --> 00:26:10,200
Speaker 2: parlaying Chelsea indortmut because those are the first two matches

551
00:26:10,200 --> 00:26:12,840
Speaker 2: of the Champions League season and people want action. Wouldn't

552
00:26:12,880 --> 00:26:16,040
Speaker 2: pass any judgment on anyone for doing that. Zagreb is

553
00:26:16,200 --> 00:26:18,639
Speaker 2: seven one and zero one draw loss in the Croatian

554
00:26:19,280 --> 00:26:23,000
Speaker 2: First Division, twenty seven goals for ten goals against in

555
00:26:23,040 --> 00:26:26,840
Speaker 2: those eight matches, and Chelsea are off to maybe the

556
00:26:26,840 --> 00:26:29,480
Speaker 2: weirdest start of any team in the Premier League three

557
00:26:29,520 --> 00:26:32,080
Speaker 2: to one and two, eight goals for nine goals against,

558
00:26:32,080 --> 00:26:35,960
Speaker 2: eight point four expectacles for nine point two expectacles against.

559
00:26:36,080 --> 00:26:38,280
Speaker 2: And the reason it's so strange there's been a you know,

560
00:26:38,280 --> 00:26:41,760
Speaker 2: the transfer sagas were incessant. It was every hour of

561
00:26:41,760 --> 00:26:43,359
Speaker 2: the day something was happening.

562
00:26:43,400 --> 00:26:46,440
Speaker 1: They've spent the most money of anybody in the Premier League.

563
00:26:46,400 --> 00:26:50,159
Speaker 2: Be between them and Nottingham Forest. It's exhausting just to

564
00:26:50,200 --> 00:26:52,840
Speaker 2: try to keep up the weird start to Chelsea season.

565
00:26:53,320 --> 00:26:55,960
Speaker 2: The weirdest part of it is that they are. They

566
00:26:55,960 --> 00:26:58,359
Speaker 2: were such a well drilled side under Tukle from the

567
00:26:58,400 --> 00:27:01,240
Speaker 2: second he came in a season and a half ago,

568
00:27:01,640 --> 00:27:05,440
Speaker 2: and coach them to a Champions League title. They were

569
00:27:05,480 --> 00:27:08,120
Speaker 2: just so good at game management and this season they

570
00:27:08,160 --> 00:27:11,600
Speaker 2: just haven't been, which is really frightening. They're traveling through

571
00:27:11,600 --> 00:27:13,919
Speaker 2: a hostile environment. You know, the fans of Croati are

572
00:27:13,960 --> 00:27:16,760
Speaker 2: going to get up for this one. So I just

573
00:27:16,960 --> 00:27:19,840
Speaker 2: I don't see any way anybody could lay this kind

574
00:27:19,840 --> 00:27:21,760
Speaker 2: of juice with Chelsea with you just have no idea

575
00:27:21,880 --> 00:27:24,360
Speaker 2: what who's going to show up on any given day.

576
00:27:24,440 --> 00:27:27,240
Speaker 2: So I'm going to be passing here. Like I said,

577
00:27:27,280 --> 00:27:29,159
Speaker 2: I do think a lot of people who are just

578
00:27:29,160 --> 00:27:31,480
Speaker 2: going to be excited to bet the Champions League again

579
00:27:31,480 --> 00:27:36,720
Speaker 2: will be wrapping Chelsea and Dortmund together. But pretty easy

580
00:27:36,760 --> 00:27:38,920
Speaker 2: pass for me here, BJ anything.

581
00:27:38,800 --> 00:27:42,280
Speaker 1: Yeah, this is a pass for me. So Zagreb last

582
00:27:42,320 --> 00:27:43,720
Speaker 1: season was in the Europa League. They were in a

583
00:27:43,760 --> 00:27:45,560
Speaker 1: group with west Ham, which is funny enough because they

584
00:27:45,600 --> 00:27:49,960
Speaker 1: just played Chelsea. West Ham pretty thoroughly dominated Zagreb over

585
00:27:50,000 --> 00:27:52,680
Speaker 1: the two legs. They weren't really that competitive. Zagreb is

586
00:27:52,680 --> 00:27:56,119
Speaker 1: about a plus one expected old differential per ninety minutes

587
00:27:56,119 --> 00:27:59,200
Speaker 1: in the Croatian league, which is about fifteenth by you

588
00:27:59,280 --> 00:28:02,840
Speaker 1: eighth coefficient, and so they're probably around the fourth or

589
00:28:02,880 --> 00:28:05,639
Speaker 1: fifth worst team in this competition. But I mean, I

590
00:28:05,680 --> 00:28:07,399
Speaker 1: don't know how you lay anything with Chelsea right now.

591
00:28:07,400 --> 00:28:09,680
Speaker 1: I don't even know what to make there. You know there, Anthony,

592
00:28:10,359 --> 00:28:12,680
Speaker 1: you were right. Their midfield is bad like that has

593
00:28:12,760 --> 00:28:14,879
Speaker 1: a lot of problems, and I don't really know what

594
00:28:14,920 --> 00:28:16,480
Speaker 1: they're gonna do to fix it, and they just kind

595
00:28:16,480 --> 00:28:18,359
Speaker 1: of I mean, they got Zacharia, and I guess that

596
00:28:18,440 --> 00:28:23,240
Speaker 1: helps a little bit. But yeah, I too it. We're

597
00:28:23,280 --> 00:28:25,399
Speaker 1: I think we're near in the end here with touchul Like,

598
00:28:25,600 --> 00:28:28,440
Speaker 1: I think there's just either Chelsea's gonna flip this thing

599
00:28:29,200 --> 00:28:31,480
Speaker 1: and just go crazy and go on a crazy run

600
00:28:31,600 --> 00:28:34,920
Speaker 1: or something, or he's just gonna implode and get fired

601
00:28:35,000 --> 00:28:37,760
Speaker 1: and then who knows who comes in. But yeah, no,

602
00:28:37,800 --> 00:28:39,440
Speaker 1: there's no way I'm playing anything in this match.

603
00:28:39,440 --> 00:28:42,840
Speaker 3: In passing, we'll talk more Chelsea. I think on the

604
00:28:42,880 --> 00:28:46,920
Speaker 3: weekend pod they go to Fulham. The number is really short. Unfortunately,

605
00:28:46,960 --> 00:28:51,880
Speaker 3: the number is really short. So but I think Chelsea's

606
00:28:51,960 --> 00:28:57,520
Speaker 3: problems are pretty simple. They've never really solved the the

607
00:28:57,560 --> 00:29:01,640
Speaker 3: toggle thing, right. They're either too tacking. They have to

608
00:29:01,680 --> 00:29:03,640
Speaker 3: either up the throttle to attack more and then they're

609
00:29:03,720 --> 00:29:09,200
Speaker 3: vulnerable defensively, or they are struggle balling and like defending

610
00:29:09,240 --> 00:29:12,000
Speaker 3: really well, but there's just no attack and I think

611
00:29:12,000 --> 00:29:15,040
Speaker 3: we saw that against west Ham. The first half was

612
00:29:15,120 --> 00:29:17,120
Speaker 3: just like Chelsea has the ball, has the ball, has

613
00:29:17,120 --> 00:29:19,960
Speaker 3: the ball. They can't create a damn thing. And then

614
00:29:19,960 --> 00:29:21,680
Speaker 3: they think, all right, we're gonna up the throttle now

615
00:29:21,680 --> 00:29:23,480
Speaker 3: because we need, we need to try to win this match,

616
00:29:23,800 --> 00:29:26,840
Speaker 3: and then all of a sudden, west Ham scores, Chelsea scores,

617
00:29:27,160 --> 00:29:29,920
Speaker 3: Chelsea scores again. West Ham should have scored and got screwed.

618
00:29:30,240 --> 00:29:32,520
Speaker 3: Mendy's a mess as well, which is a big problem

619
00:29:32,560 --> 00:29:35,400
Speaker 3: because a lot of their overperformance last year and Bendy

620
00:29:35,640 --> 00:29:39,320
Speaker 3: being amazing and he has not been that. So I'm

621
00:29:39,560 --> 00:29:41,560
Speaker 3: happy to pass here on Chelsea. We'll talk more about

622
00:29:41,600 --> 00:29:43,160
Speaker 3: Chelsea than a coming weeks. But I think you know,

623
00:29:43,240 --> 00:29:45,640
Speaker 3: Connord Gallagher getting on the ball a ton and then

624
00:29:45,680 --> 00:29:47,920
Speaker 3: making bad passes is a big problem for the for

625
00:29:47,960 --> 00:29:51,080
Speaker 3: the team that wants to control the ball so much. So, yeah,

626
00:29:51,120 --> 00:29:54,520
Speaker 3: the Blues until Kante the Savior returns there intentional.

627
00:29:56,200 --> 00:29:58,760
Speaker 2: All right, let's move to Wednesday, But before I do,

628
00:29:58,880 --> 00:30:01,400
Speaker 2: a reminder Want to Go is presented by BET three

629
00:30:01,440 --> 00:30:04,880
Speaker 2: sixty five, the world's favorite sports book brand. Sign up

630
00:30:04,880 --> 00:30:07,760
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631
00:30:07,960 --> 00:30:11,560
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632
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633
00:30:14,880 --> 00:30:18,959
Speaker 2: All right, we are onto Group C now, and I

634
00:30:18,960 --> 00:30:21,400
Speaker 2: think you pretty much call this one the headliner of

635
00:30:21,680 --> 00:30:25,080
Speaker 2: all the matches. Inter plus two to eighty at home

636
00:30:25,200 --> 00:30:28,920
Speaker 2: hosting Bayern minus one twenty on to On at bet

637
00:30:28,960 --> 00:30:31,280
Speaker 2: three six five to win this match the draws plus

638
00:30:31,280 --> 00:30:33,560
Speaker 2: three twenty. Both teams come in with three zero to

639
00:30:33,560 --> 00:30:38,240
Speaker 2: two records in their respective domestic leagues. Although Inter's gold

640
00:30:38,240 --> 00:30:41,320
Speaker 2: differential looks very different compared to Bayern's eleven goals for

641
00:30:41,480 --> 00:30:45,560
Speaker 2: eight goals against for Inter eleven point seven expectacles for

642
00:30:46,080 --> 00:30:51,200
Speaker 2: five expectacles against according to understat Bayern seventeen goals for

643
00:30:51,280 --> 00:30:54,080
Speaker 2: three goals against, fourteen and a half expected goals for

644
00:30:54,560 --> 00:30:59,000
Speaker 2: three expectacles against. And yet as good as those numbers

645
00:30:59,040 --> 00:31:01,680
Speaker 2: make Bayern look, all three of us are in agreement

646
00:31:01,760 --> 00:31:05,040
Speaker 2: here that this Italian side underrated. I'm gonna be on

647
00:31:05,080 --> 00:31:07,800
Speaker 2: the money line YouTube, gentlemen will be with me in

648
00:31:07,840 --> 00:31:09,960
Speaker 2: some respect, DJ break this one down.

649
00:31:10,200 --> 00:31:12,440
Speaker 1: Byron's way over valued here, especially on the road. I

650
00:31:12,440 --> 00:31:16,640
Speaker 1: mean Inter, I mean they're they're pricing Inter like just

651
00:31:17,040 --> 00:31:18,959
Speaker 1: you know, the fourth best team in Italy, which is

652
00:31:19,040 --> 00:31:21,040
Speaker 1: just totally not the case here. I mean they are

653
00:31:21,560 --> 00:31:23,560
Speaker 1: they were the best team in Italy, you know, by

654
00:31:23,640 --> 00:31:26,040
Speaker 1: expected goals last season they were plus one point one

655
00:31:26,200 --> 00:31:29,000
Speaker 1: one expect a gold differential per ninety minutes. You know,

656
00:31:29,040 --> 00:31:30,720
Speaker 1: if you look at a five year rolling average of

657
00:31:30,840 --> 00:31:35,240
Speaker 1: UA for coefficients, Siria I is one ranking point ahead

658
00:31:35,240 --> 00:31:37,400
Speaker 1: of the Bundesliga. So we can just say that basically

659
00:31:37,560 --> 00:31:41,160
Speaker 1: even on you know, on pars as two leagues, Byron

660
00:31:41,320 --> 00:31:44,000
Speaker 1: was plus one point five expected gold differential per ninety

661
00:31:44,040 --> 00:31:47,560
Speaker 1: minutes with Robert Lewandowski last year he has gone, yes,

662
00:31:47,600 --> 00:31:50,440
Speaker 1: they still have great attacking players, but you can't just

663
00:31:50,800 --> 00:31:53,360
Speaker 1: make up for a one point zero eight xt P

664
00:31:53,440 --> 00:31:56,200
Speaker 1: ninety minute striker, Like it just doesn't happen that way.

665
00:31:56,280 --> 00:31:58,640
Speaker 1: So not that Byron's gonna dip off completely, but it's

666
00:31:58,640 --> 00:32:00,440
Speaker 1: just they're not going to maintain the level that they

667
00:32:00,440 --> 00:32:04,040
Speaker 1: were last year. I mean, and even enter last Champions League,

668
00:32:04,040 --> 00:32:07,760
Speaker 1: they beat Real Madrid on expected goals over both meetings.

669
00:32:07,800 --> 00:32:10,640
Speaker 1: You know, against Liverpool they hung with them in the

670
00:32:10,680 --> 00:32:12,360
Speaker 1: first leg, they gave them a big scare in the

671
00:32:12,360 --> 00:32:14,680
Speaker 1: second leg. Like this team is good, like, they didn't

672
00:32:14,680 --> 00:32:17,760
Speaker 1: really lose anybody from last year. They have a lot

673
00:32:17,760 --> 00:32:20,560
Speaker 1: of talented players, they're at home. I mean, just from

674
00:32:20,600 --> 00:32:24,400
Speaker 1: a mathematical standpoint, I can't get anywhere close to Byron

675
00:32:24,560 --> 00:32:27,600
Speaker 1: minus one twenty. I have this projected actually pretty close

676
00:32:27,640 --> 00:32:29,720
Speaker 1: to a pick them when you factor in home field advantage.

677
00:32:29,800 --> 00:32:33,600
Speaker 1: So I'm taking Inter plus plus half a goal. Byron

678
00:32:33,640 --> 00:32:35,920
Speaker 1: will probably maybe look stupid again, but you know what,

679
00:32:36,080 --> 00:32:37,960
Speaker 1: my numbers telling me to play Inter, so I have

680
00:32:38,040 --> 00:32:38,400
Speaker 1: to do it.

681
00:32:38,560 --> 00:32:41,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, this is a classic spot that we will see

682
00:32:41,200 --> 00:32:43,640
Speaker 2: in the Champions League over and over and over again,

683
00:32:43,960 --> 00:32:47,400
Speaker 2: where the market is very high on Byron.

684
00:32:47,680 --> 00:32:49,440
Speaker 3: We take the Yeah, I think they're the best team

685
00:32:49,480 --> 00:32:52,320
Speaker 3: in the world. To bet them. Yeah, And well, like,

686
00:32:52,360 --> 00:32:55,360
Speaker 3: that's how crazy numbers, because look like Liverpool went to

687
00:32:55,680 --> 00:32:59,040
Speaker 3: inter Milan in April. They went in I guess would

688
00:32:59,040 --> 00:33:01,840
Speaker 3: have been February, second half of last season, they went

689
00:33:01,880 --> 00:33:04,840
Speaker 3: there and the line was Liverpool minus one ten. Now,

690
00:33:04,880 --> 00:33:06,480
Speaker 3: I don't think you could any way, shape or form

691
00:33:06,520 --> 00:33:08,160
Speaker 3: say that the current Byron team is better than the

692
00:33:08,160 --> 00:33:10,720
Speaker 3: Liverpool team that played them, And at that point we

693
00:33:10,760 --> 00:33:12,760
Speaker 3: are we're in agreement that Liverpool was won one a

694
00:33:13,080 --> 00:33:16,000
Speaker 3: maybe it's smidge behind City, but they were in those

695
00:33:16,040 --> 00:33:21,840
Speaker 3: conversations Byron are probably you know, three four five. That

696
00:33:22,000 --> 00:33:25,720
Speaker 3: alone gets you down into plus money territory, which is

697
00:33:25,720 --> 00:33:28,000
Speaker 3: where I have it. I've got Byron at plus one

698
00:33:28,040 --> 00:33:32,400
Speaker 3: twenty five. So I love inter here catching a half goal.

699
00:33:32,480 --> 00:33:34,680
Speaker 3: It's not a huge edge for me, but it is

700
00:33:35,360 --> 00:33:37,880
Speaker 3: a great spot at home. And again going back to

701
00:33:37,880 --> 00:33:41,160
Speaker 3: that match last year against Liverpool, they were excellent defensively

702
00:33:41,320 --> 00:33:43,320
Speaker 3: and in Zogie does a very good job of setting

703
00:33:43,320 --> 00:33:45,920
Speaker 3: his teams up in a defensive manner, and they're going

704
00:33:45,960 --> 00:33:50,720
Speaker 3: to find much more counter attacking opportunities against this Byron

705
00:33:50,760 --> 00:33:52,600
Speaker 3: team than they did against Liverpool. And even in that

706
00:33:52,640 --> 00:33:56,320
Speaker 3: match against Liverpool they had chances that just didn't quite

707
00:33:56,320 --> 00:33:59,920
Speaker 3: come off. This Byron team is significantly weaker in transition defense.

708
00:34:00,160 --> 00:34:02,719
Speaker 3: They don't have Van Dyke, they don't have Thiago as

709
00:34:03,000 --> 00:34:06,560
Speaker 3: their you know, two main you know kind of stoppers there.

710
00:34:06,640 --> 00:34:09,080
Speaker 3: So I think this is a vulnerable Bayern team in

711
00:34:09,120 --> 00:34:11,920
Speaker 3: this situation, in this spot, and I don't know how

712
00:34:11,960 --> 00:34:13,680
Speaker 3: much I'm gonna be betting Byron in this group, even

713
00:34:13,719 --> 00:34:15,120
Speaker 3: though I did say that they could be a dark

714
00:34:15,160 --> 00:34:17,560
Speaker 3: horse to win this if their odds dropped a little lower.

715
00:34:17,840 --> 00:34:20,480
Speaker 2: The team that all three of us backed with a

716
00:34:20,520 --> 00:34:23,800
Speaker 2: future bet twenty to one to win the Champions League. Barcelona,

717
00:34:24,200 --> 00:34:27,759
Speaker 2: biggest favorite on the board for this match week, might

718
00:34:27,800 --> 00:34:31,920
Speaker 2: have sixteen hundred at home hosting Victoria Pleasant out of

719
00:34:32,440 --> 00:34:35,160
Speaker 2: the Czech Republic twenty five to one. The draw here

720
00:34:35,200 --> 00:34:37,600
Speaker 2: is twelve to one Barcelona three to one to zero

721
00:34:38,120 --> 00:34:42,040
Speaker 2: in La Liga to start eleven goals for one goal against.

722
00:34:42,280 --> 00:34:46,080
Speaker 2: La Liga is obviously a very defensive league, but pretty

723
00:34:46,120 --> 00:34:50,400
Speaker 2: damn impressive out of Javis Boys eleven point four expectacles

724
00:34:50,440 --> 00:34:54,399
Speaker 2: four for Barcelona three point one two expectacles against. I mean,

725
00:34:54,560 --> 00:34:58,360
Speaker 2: this is a tough one to break down because is

726
00:34:58,400 --> 00:35:00,239
Speaker 2: this This could be the worst team in in the

727
00:35:00,360 --> 00:35:04,360
Speaker 2: entire field against the fifth best team. They're going to Barcelona.

728
00:35:04,440 --> 00:35:06,440
Speaker 2: This looks it just has a pace thing written all

729
00:35:06,480 --> 00:35:08,920
Speaker 2: over it. Bj What do you see out of it?

730
00:35:09,080 --> 00:35:11,160
Speaker 1: Let's talk a little about Victoria Pluazan, because I'm sure

731
00:35:11,160 --> 00:35:12,520
Speaker 1: a lot of people listening to this podcast don't know

732
00:35:12,640 --> 00:35:14,680
Speaker 1: much about them. They were one of the two worst

733
00:35:14,719 --> 00:35:17,960
Speaker 1: teams in this competition. In the Czech First Division last season,

734
00:35:17,960 --> 00:35:20,959
Speaker 1: they only averaged one point five to nine expected goals

735
00:35:21,000 --> 00:35:22,799
Speaker 1: per match and had a plus point three to four

736
00:35:22,840 --> 00:35:25,280
Speaker 1: expected goal differential per ninety minutes. That one point five

737
00:35:25,719 --> 00:35:28,440
Speaker 1: expected goals per match is the lowest average for a

738
00:35:28,560 --> 00:35:32,120
Speaker 1: non Big Five League team in this competition. They did

739
00:35:32,160 --> 00:35:35,000
Speaker 1: make it through three rounds of Champions League qualification. They

740
00:35:35,080 --> 00:35:39,319
Speaker 1: beat hjk Helsinki out of Finland, only created two point

741
00:35:39,400 --> 00:35:41,960
Speaker 1: six expected goals over two legs, actually allowed them to

742
00:35:42,080 --> 00:35:45,680
Speaker 1: hold over sixty percent possession in the away leg. They

743
00:35:45,719 --> 00:35:48,359
Speaker 1: beat Sheriff from last year's Champions League over two legs,

744
00:35:48,360 --> 00:35:50,719
Speaker 1: only created two point five over those two legs, and

745
00:35:50,760 --> 00:35:54,040
Speaker 1: then in their final round they played Azerbaijan Club Kara

746
00:35:54,120 --> 00:35:56,640
Speaker 1: Bag and they only created a total of point seventy

747
00:35:56,760 --> 00:36:00,440
Speaker 1: five expected goals over the two legs and allowed car

748
00:36:00,440 --> 00:36:03,919
Speaker 1: bag to held sixty percent possession. What do you think

749
00:36:03,960 --> 00:36:06,359
Speaker 1: Barcelona is going to do? Like they? This is going

750
00:36:06,400 --> 00:36:10,040
Speaker 1: to be an absolute pasting, very similarly to I mean,

751
00:36:10,040 --> 00:36:12,120
Speaker 1: if you want to do something kind of comparable, Now,

752
00:36:12,440 --> 00:36:14,719
Speaker 1: Dino Keev is way better than this team, but for

753
00:36:14,880 --> 00:36:17,239
Speaker 1: somewhat of a comparison purposes, you know, Barcelona in those

754
00:36:17,239 --> 00:36:20,120
Speaker 1: two matches last season against Kiev, they only allow them

755
00:36:20,120 --> 00:36:22,239
Speaker 1: to create a total of one expected goal over two

756
00:36:22,280 --> 00:36:25,520
Speaker 1: matches at bet three sixty five. Barcelona to win nil

757
00:36:25,560 --> 00:36:28,040
Speaker 1: is minus one sixty three. I have Barcelona wind nil

758
00:36:28,120 --> 00:36:31,200
Speaker 1: projected at minus three fifty. So I'm gonna take Barcelona

759
00:36:31,239 --> 00:36:32,879
Speaker 1: to wind nill at minus one sixty three. I think

760
00:36:32,880 --> 00:36:35,640
Speaker 1: that's a crazy low price. I don't think Victoria Pleasant

761
00:36:35,800 --> 00:36:38,080
Speaker 1: is going to get over to more than two shots

762
00:36:38,120 --> 00:36:40,920
Speaker 1: in this match. It's they're going to be maybe even

763
00:36:40,960 --> 00:36:43,239
Speaker 1: worse than the Malmo of last year. Like it's going

764
00:36:43,320 --> 00:36:45,520
Speaker 1: to be really, really bad. And I have a hard

765
00:36:45,520 --> 00:36:47,000
Speaker 1: time seeing how they're even going to get it out

766
00:36:47,000 --> 00:36:48,240
Speaker 1: of their own half in this match.

767
00:36:48,640 --> 00:36:51,240
Speaker 2: Hey, the difference between them and Malmo is at least

768
00:36:51,480 --> 00:36:52,800
Speaker 2: their season, is it?

769
00:36:52,880 --> 00:36:54,160
Speaker 1: At least they're playing matches.

770
00:36:54,440 --> 00:36:58,359
Speaker 2: Yeah, co relates with with the Champions League season. Yeah,

771
00:36:58,400 --> 00:37:00,000
Speaker 2: that's that's that's gonna be a tough one.

772
00:37:00,360 --> 00:37:02,520
Speaker 1: Like I have Pleasant projected, I had to give them

773
00:37:02,560 --> 00:37:04,319
Speaker 1: a little bit because I felt that I was like,

774
00:37:04,320 --> 00:37:06,840
Speaker 1: this can't be right. I have been projected for point

775
00:37:06,840 --> 00:37:08,759
Speaker 1: one expected goals in this match, so I had to

776
00:37:08,760 --> 00:37:10,279
Speaker 1: give them point one five because I was like, I

777
00:37:10,280 --> 00:37:13,959
Speaker 1: don't think this is right. So but so they're they're

778
00:37:14,000 --> 00:37:15,759
Speaker 1: they're really they're really bad. They are going to get

779
00:37:15,800 --> 00:37:17,480
Speaker 1: pasted so bad by these three teams.

780
00:37:17,560 --> 00:37:19,319
Speaker 2: What I mean you talk like it's a group of

781
00:37:19,360 --> 00:37:21,000
Speaker 2: death and then this, I mean it happens all the

782
00:37:21,040 --> 00:37:22,520
Speaker 2: time with your ows. When there is a group of death,

783
00:37:22,560 --> 00:37:25,080
Speaker 2: there's that fourth team in there and you just feel terrible.

784
00:37:25,160 --> 00:37:26,520
Speaker 3: Last year it could have been it could have been

785
00:37:26,520 --> 00:37:29,520
Speaker 3: Marseille had of Marseille and there there's some okay, pod

786
00:37:29,560 --> 00:37:30,120
Speaker 3: four teams.

787
00:37:30,160 --> 00:37:34,960
Speaker 2: But let's move to Group A. Napoli hosting Liverpool and

788
00:37:35,000 --> 00:37:37,800
Speaker 2: Napoli plus two sixty at bet three six five Liverpool

789
00:37:37,800 --> 00:37:39,840
Speaker 2: odds on minus one oh six. The draw here is

790
00:37:39,840 --> 00:37:42,320
Speaker 2: plus two eighty. Chelsea's off to the weirdest start in

791
00:37:42,360 --> 00:37:44,640
Speaker 2: the Premier League. I think by far, Liverpool is a

792
00:37:44,680 --> 00:37:48,280
Speaker 2: distant second. Now that now that Manchester United has completely

793
00:37:48,280 --> 00:37:51,719
Speaker 2: reverted from crisis club to title contender. Two three and

794
00:37:51,800 --> 00:37:55,040
Speaker 2: one on the on the season for Liverpool fifteen goals for.

795
00:37:56,560 --> 00:37:59,719
Speaker 1: All save my United stuff for the weekend. But they're

796
00:37:59,760 --> 00:38:00,759
Speaker 1: not in competition.

797
00:38:01,239 --> 00:38:04,960
Speaker 2: They're not Liverpool are fifteen goals for them in the

798
00:38:04,960 --> 00:38:08,680
Speaker 2: Premier League six goals against Remember they won nine nothing.

799
00:38:08,760 --> 00:38:10,680
Speaker 2: So you take the Bourne myth numbers out and it's

800
00:38:10,719 --> 00:38:14,000
Speaker 2: six and six fourteen point one expectacles for seven point

801
00:38:14,040 --> 00:38:16,880
Speaker 2: two expectacles against. I think that is the key number

802
00:38:17,120 --> 00:38:19,960
Speaker 2: coming off Mercyside Darby where they were held nil nil

803
00:38:20,000 --> 00:38:22,080
Speaker 2: with Ever in one of the best nil mills you'll

804
00:38:22,080 --> 00:38:25,720
Speaker 2: see all season. Meanwhile, Napoli they are top Seria AH

805
00:38:25,760 --> 00:38:28,880
Speaker 2: three two and oh twelve goals for four against twelve

806
00:38:28,960 --> 00:38:33,200
Speaker 2: expectacles for three expectacles against a defensive Titan. Napoli is

807
00:38:33,960 --> 00:38:36,000
Speaker 2: and I like them here at home plus two sixty.

808
00:38:36,040 --> 00:38:38,280
Speaker 2: I think it's similar to what we were talking about

809
00:38:38,320 --> 00:38:43,000
Speaker 2: with Byron and Inter, where you're paying a premium here

810
00:38:43,040 --> 00:38:46,759
Speaker 2: on Liverpool when they haven't shown this season that they

811
00:38:46,800 --> 00:38:50,360
Speaker 2: deserve a premium to be paid on. Like they've really struggled.

812
00:38:50,480 --> 00:38:52,719
Speaker 2: And it's not like they've played at heart that heart

813
00:38:52,719 --> 00:38:54,400
Speaker 2: of a schedule in the Premier League either. They're just

814
00:38:54,440 --> 00:38:58,080
Speaker 2: not right. They're struggling keeping preventing scoring chances. Their midfield

815
00:38:58,120 --> 00:39:01,680
Speaker 2: is still getting overrun and losing out to the midfield

816
00:39:01,719 --> 00:39:05,720
Speaker 2: battle relatively to weaker teams. It's not great. They still

817
00:39:06,000 --> 00:39:09,760
Speaker 2: have five world class attackers, so you have to cope

818
00:39:09,760 --> 00:39:11,960
Speaker 2: with that. But that's what Napoli does. They are a

819
00:39:11,960 --> 00:39:15,080
Speaker 2: great defensive side, so I like the Italian side here, Anthony,

820
00:39:15,400 --> 00:39:15,600
Speaker 2: what do.

821
00:39:15,640 --> 00:39:17,319
Speaker 3: You have as of right now? I got nothing? I

822
00:39:17,320 --> 00:39:19,640
Speaker 3: got this number spot on. I thought I was going

823
00:39:19,680 --> 00:39:23,319
Speaker 3: to betting Napoli. I lined up. I was thinking when

824
00:39:23,360 --> 00:39:24,800
Speaker 3: the draw first came out, I was like, oh, we

825
00:39:24,880 --> 00:39:27,360
Speaker 3: got Liverpool at Napoli first match, good road fade spot

826
00:39:27,480 --> 00:39:28,880
Speaker 3: and I may end up getting there. I'm going to

827
00:39:28,920 --> 00:39:31,360
Speaker 3: hope for some Liverpool money to come in before, so

828
00:39:31,360 --> 00:39:33,799
Speaker 3: I would call it a lean toward Napoli. This really

829
00:39:33,840 --> 00:39:36,040
Speaker 3: comes down to Liverpool looking like they're still stuck in

830
00:39:36,080 --> 00:39:39,359
Speaker 3: the mud and most Sala is only at point four

831
00:39:39,400 --> 00:39:42,400
Speaker 3: to two and expected goals per ninety right now. That

832
00:39:42,440 --> 00:39:44,800
Speaker 3: would be the lowest rate of his Premier League career.

833
00:39:45,160 --> 00:39:48,720
Speaker 3: He is thirty, and they have played a relatively friendly

834
00:39:48,760 --> 00:39:51,560
Speaker 3: schedule of a pumps when you look across the board,

835
00:39:51,600 --> 00:39:54,920
Speaker 3: They've only played one of the Big six and they

836
00:39:55,000 --> 00:39:58,000
Speaker 3: played fine in the match overall. But Sala just hasn't

837
00:39:58,120 --> 00:40:02,359
Speaker 3: gotten the shot numbers that you're used seeing. So you know,

838
00:40:02,560 --> 00:40:05,400
Speaker 3: if he is slowing down just a little bit, that

839
00:40:05,480 --> 00:40:07,960
Speaker 3: kind of lowers the ceiling of this Liverpool team and

840
00:40:08,000 --> 00:40:10,600
Speaker 3: definitely takes them out of the conversation, and look, it's

841
00:40:10,600 --> 00:40:13,000
Speaker 3: not that far off from our conversation about inter Milan

842
00:40:13,080 --> 00:40:16,440
Speaker 3: last year. Napoli is worse than ter Liverpool is a

843
00:40:16,440 --> 00:40:18,120
Speaker 3: little bit worse than they were last year. That gets

844
00:40:18,120 --> 00:40:21,120
Speaker 3: you right around the same number. So from a numbers perspective,

845
00:40:21,120 --> 00:40:23,680
Speaker 3: I think this is a pretty fair line. But I'll

846
00:40:23,719 --> 00:40:27,600
Speaker 3: be very interested to watch this one. Liverpool, like Nunez,

847
00:40:28,040 --> 00:40:32,160
Speaker 3: I thought was good, not great against Everton, but they're

848
00:40:32,239 --> 00:40:35,799
Speaker 3: kind of struggling a little bit here, and I just

849
00:40:35,880 --> 00:40:37,839
Speaker 3: wonder if they just played too many minutes last year

850
00:40:37,840 --> 00:40:39,719
Speaker 3: and they're just kind of kind of have a down

851
00:40:39,760 --> 00:40:40,440
Speaker 3: year because of it.

852
00:40:40,600 --> 00:40:44,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, they played every possible game that you can play

853
00:40:45,200 --> 00:40:48,680
Speaker 2: in a European soccer schedule. With the cup runs, they

854
00:40:48,680 --> 00:40:50,960
Speaker 2: had the chance of the quadruple. Obviously, they came up short.

855
00:40:51,000 --> 00:40:54,600
Speaker 2: Only won two trophies last year. Let's move to the

856
00:40:54,840 --> 00:40:58,640
Speaker 2: other patch. In this group, I X minus two twenty

857
00:40:58,680 --> 00:41:01,239
Speaker 2: three at home against Rangers plus five fifty. The draw

858
00:41:01,280 --> 00:41:03,359
Speaker 2: here is plus three seventy five, and I think all

859
00:41:03,360 --> 00:41:06,120
Speaker 2: three of us are in agreement that this IX team

860
00:41:06,360 --> 00:41:09,120
Speaker 2: can't be It's a different group than what we've seen

861
00:41:09,160 --> 00:41:11,040
Speaker 2: out of them the past few years. When they've had

862
00:41:11,320 --> 00:41:15,240
Speaker 2: some exciting Champions League success, but they are often running

863
00:41:15,320 --> 00:41:19,480
Speaker 2: in the air divise five to sixteen goals for three

864
00:41:19,480 --> 00:41:23,439
Speaker 2: goals against. But this price is out of whack. It's

865
00:41:23,520 --> 00:41:27,120
Speaker 2: just way too high on a team that just lost

866
00:41:27,120 --> 00:41:30,520
Speaker 2: so much talent, lost its manager the turnover. Anthony I

867
00:41:30,560 --> 00:41:32,840
Speaker 2: think put it really well on our Champions League preview

868
00:41:32,880 --> 00:41:35,040
Speaker 2: pod where you can hear us talk about future bets

869
00:41:35,040 --> 00:41:36,800
Speaker 2: and go group by group and break them down that

870
00:41:37,200 --> 00:41:38,799
Speaker 2: they're kind of just in a new phase right like

871
00:41:38,880 --> 00:41:41,480
Speaker 2: every few years, like I X will just get raided build,

872
00:41:41,520 --> 00:41:43,719
Speaker 2: their manager will move on to a bigger club, and

873
00:41:43,760 --> 00:41:45,279
Speaker 2: then they start over, and then in a couple of

874
00:41:45,320 --> 00:41:47,720
Speaker 2: years from now, we'll all be like IX two fifty

875
00:41:47,719 --> 00:41:49,440
Speaker 2: to one to win the Champions League, get in on it,

876
00:41:49,480 --> 00:41:51,920
Speaker 2: and then they lose in the round of sixteen, and

877
00:41:51,960 --> 00:41:53,600
Speaker 2: we can pat ourselves on the back for you know,

878
00:41:53,680 --> 00:41:55,879
Speaker 2: it was a good bet, it just didn't win. That's

879
00:41:56,000 --> 00:41:59,160
Speaker 2: that's not the case right now. They're these are the

880
00:41:59,200 --> 00:42:00,920
Speaker 2: type of numbers that we're going to be getting to

881
00:42:00,960 --> 00:42:03,600
Speaker 2: play against I X, and we're gonna be faiting them

882
00:42:03,920 --> 00:42:07,600
Speaker 2: every midweek in the Champions League. BJ. That being said,

883
00:42:07,640 --> 00:42:08,520
Speaker 2: you're wearing an i X.

884
00:42:09,520 --> 00:42:11,279
Speaker 1: Well, I mean this is this is the i X

885
00:42:11,280 --> 00:42:13,560
Speaker 1: from people who are watch it on YouTube. This is

886
00:42:13,640 --> 00:42:17,719
Speaker 1: the IX Bob Marley collaboration, the three birdswe from last year.

887
00:42:17,760 --> 00:42:20,479
Speaker 1: The third kit probably one of the sickest third kids

888
00:42:20,480 --> 00:42:22,040
Speaker 1: ever made. So I had to wear for the Champions

889
00:42:22,120 --> 00:42:23,520
Speaker 1: League pod because we're talking about i X.

890
00:42:23,560 --> 00:42:25,640
Speaker 2: And also it's I wonder if you're the only person

891
00:42:25,680 --> 00:42:27,279
Speaker 2: in Iowa, which I might be.

892
00:42:27,719 --> 00:42:30,480
Speaker 1: You know what's funny is it took it took. I

893
00:42:30,600 --> 00:42:33,279
Speaker 1: ordered it last September and it came in like February.

894
00:42:33,400 --> 00:42:34,560
Speaker 1: I think they had to take a little while to

895
00:42:34,600 --> 00:42:36,600
Speaker 1: figure out where I actually live in Iowa. But that

896
00:42:36,680 --> 00:42:39,719
Speaker 1: being said, let's just go from a mathematical standpoint. Okay,

897
00:42:39,760 --> 00:42:42,560
Speaker 1: let's just say that i AX is the team of

898
00:42:42,640 --> 00:42:45,000
Speaker 1: last year. Like they have all their players they're coming

899
00:42:45,040 --> 00:42:47,600
Speaker 1: into this last year in the air to VSA, they

900
00:42:47,600 --> 00:42:50,600
Speaker 1: were at a a plus one point seven eight expectacle

901
00:42:50,640 --> 00:42:53,319
Speaker 1: differential per ninety minutes. Rangers in the Scottish Famie League

902
00:42:53,360 --> 00:42:55,960
Speaker 1: was at one point three to six air to VSA,

903
00:42:56,120 --> 00:42:58,719
Speaker 1: seventh best in Europe. Scottich Fmier League is ninth. I

904
00:42:58,760 --> 00:43:02,760
Speaker 1: have the diference between Netherlins and Skyland at about point

905
00:43:02,760 --> 00:43:05,960
Speaker 1: twenty five goals, So even factoring homefield advantage, you can

906
00:43:05,960 --> 00:43:09,120
Speaker 1: get to I as minus one, maybe a little bit

907
00:43:09,160 --> 00:43:12,680
Speaker 1: over that. But then now yet factor in that Gravenburg

908
00:43:12,760 --> 00:43:15,520
Speaker 1: has gone, Los Angele Martinez has gone, Anthony is gone,

909
00:43:15,600 --> 00:43:19,520
Speaker 1: Sebastian Halaire is gone, their manager, Eric ten Hog is gone.

910
00:43:19,640 --> 00:43:22,439
Speaker 1: Like that's a lot of a lot of turnover. That's

911
00:43:22,480 --> 00:43:27,239
Speaker 1: their best players all left the club. So factoring all

912
00:43:27,320 --> 00:43:29,279
Speaker 1: that in, I mean there's no way you can get

913
00:43:29,360 --> 00:43:32,200
Speaker 1: tax minus one and a half, which is you know,

914
00:43:32,280 --> 00:43:33,800
Speaker 1: or minus one point twenty five. I guess what the

915
00:43:33,840 --> 00:43:37,600
Speaker 1: spread is right now. So I mean Rangers, they lose

916
00:43:37,640 --> 00:43:40,480
Speaker 1: a couple guys, but their their core of like James Tavinier,

917
00:43:40,640 --> 00:43:43,600
Speaker 1: Ryan Kent, Alfredo Moreles is all still there. We have

918
00:43:43,640 --> 00:43:46,320
Speaker 1: to remember this is the team that lost on penalties

919
00:43:46,360 --> 00:43:49,120
Speaker 1: to Frankfurt in the Europa League Final last season. I

920
00:43:49,160 --> 00:43:51,880
Speaker 1: mean throughout their entire Europa League run they were a

921
00:43:51,880 --> 00:43:54,400
Speaker 1: plus three point eight expected Goldffronchial so they were actually

922
00:43:54,760 --> 00:43:57,319
Speaker 1: really good and now they have the experience through that run.

923
00:43:57,640 --> 00:43:59,520
Speaker 1: Guests who they took out, they took out Dormant and

924
00:43:59,560 --> 00:44:02,319
Speaker 1: they took out Arbi Leipzig in that run, so they

925
00:44:02,320 --> 00:44:05,040
Speaker 1: have experience playing against bigger sides. They have experience now

926
00:44:05,080 --> 00:44:08,600
Speaker 1: setting up, you know, in a very defensive style, defensive

927
00:44:08,640 --> 00:44:11,120
Speaker 1: counter attacking style, and they've proven that it can work,

928
00:44:11,600 --> 00:44:13,520
Speaker 1: because I'd imagine i X is probably gonna hold a

929
00:44:13,560 --> 00:44:16,000
Speaker 1: lot of possession here. So I'm on Rangers plus one

930
00:44:16,360 --> 00:44:17,920
Speaker 1: plus one twenty. I think it's way too good of

931
00:44:17,920 --> 00:44:20,239
Speaker 1: a price. I agree with you, Michael, that this price

932
00:44:20,280 --> 00:44:21,840
Speaker 1: and i AX is pricing him like the i X

933
00:44:21,880 --> 00:44:24,040
Speaker 1: of last year and that's just not the case anymore.

934
00:44:24,120 --> 00:44:25,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'll be on the Rangers' money line, and I

935
00:44:25,960 --> 00:44:29,320
Speaker 2: will also be sprinkling in all Scottish two team parlay

936
00:44:29,400 --> 00:44:33,400
Speaker 2: thirty two to one Celtic and Rangers. Anthony, what do

937
00:44:33,400 --> 00:44:33,600
Speaker 2: you have?

938
00:44:33,760 --> 00:44:35,880
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm gonna make it three for three on the Rangers.

939
00:44:36,400 --> 00:44:39,360
Speaker 3: I still will will tend to the point they overperformed

940
00:44:39,360 --> 00:44:41,439
Speaker 3: and got pretty fortunate in that run in the Europa League.

941
00:44:41,440 --> 00:44:43,719
Speaker 3: But this is more of a faded i AX. You

942
00:44:43,800 --> 00:44:45,640
Speaker 3: mentioned their numbers in the air to Visy to start

943
00:44:45,680 --> 00:44:48,520
Speaker 3: the season being very impressive. I love Steven Berg mine

944
00:44:48,560 --> 00:44:51,880
Speaker 3: as a player, but he's got six goals already. I

945
00:44:51,920 --> 00:44:55,360
Speaker 3: am pretty skeptical of him, you know, being that good.

946
00:44:55,840 --> 00:44:57,640
Speaker 3: And even if it is, we know that's not really

947
00:44:57,640 --> 00:45:00,239
Speaker 3: going to translate into a more difficult competition to into

948
00:45:00,320 --> 00:45:03,319
Speaker 3: actual defenses, which Rangers have proven they can be. They

949
00:45:03,320 --> 00:45:06,080
Speaker 3: can play sit deep. This kind of reminds me a

950
00:45:06,080 --> 00:45:09,080
Speaker 3: little bit of the Leipzig Rangers match that they did

951
00:45:09,120 --> 00:45:12,160
Speaker 3: have at the end of last season, where Rangers fortunate

952
00:45:12,200 --> 00:45:14,880
Speaker 3: to go through at the end. Yes, but in the

953
00:45:14,880 --> 00:45:19,400
Speaker 3: first leg Rangers did an excellent job of defending deep encountering,

954
00:45:19,440 --> 00:45:21,480
Speaker 3: and I think i AX will be very susceptible to

955
00:45:21,520 --> 00:45:25,040
Speaker 3: this kind of attack. It might not be quite the

956
00:45:25,080 --> 00:45:28,120
Speaker 3: same with Schroeder as a manager now instead of ten Hog,

957
00:45:28,239 --> 00:45:31,880
Speaker 3: but we know the biggest weakness of IAX was that

958
00:45:31,920 --> 00:45:34,319
Speaker 3: they love to push up the fullbacks and they'll havet

959
00:45:34,320 --> 00:45:37,360
Speaker 3: a ton of space in behind. Well, Tavernier is probably

960
00:45:37,400 --> 00:45:40,799
Speaker 3: licking his chops thinking about those kind of opportunities to

961
00:45:40,800 --> 00:45:43,759
Speaker 3: get up the wing and to cause havoc here. It

962
00:45:43,840 --> 00:45:47,280
Speaker 3: is also the Bassi Bowl, with Bassie going to AJAX,

963
00:45:47,360 --> 00:45:50,560
Speaker 3: but the center back from Rangers. But this will be

964
00:45:50,640 --> 00:45:53,080
Speaker 3: very interesting. I mean, i AX did a decent job

965
00:45:53,120 --> 00:45:55,360
Speaker 3: bringing in some fun players to replace, but you just

966
00:45:55,360 --> 00:45:58,400
Speaker 3: at the end of the day, cannot replace Anthony Gravin

967
00:45:58,400 --> 00:46:02,280
Speaker 3: burke Hall air Markinas. That's just way too much production.

968
00:46:02,440 --> 00:46:04,960
Speaker 3: So and they're going to struggle this year a little bit,

969
00:46:04,960 --> 00:46:07,239
Speaker 3: I think in Europe because of it. It's a shame

970
00:46:07,280 --> 00:46:08,799
Speaker 3: because we had so much fun. We bet that them

971
00:46:08,800 --> 00:46:10,600
Speaker 3: to think every match at the group stage, at least

972
00:46:10,600 --> 00:46:12,439
Speaker 3: the first four or five, and we hit that group

973
00:46:12,480 --> 00:46:15,600
Speaker 3: future and we should have won our They should have

974
00:46:15,600 --> 00:46:17,400
Speaker 3: won the Champions League last year in my opinion. But

975
00:46:17,800 --> 00:46:21,160
Speaker 3: other than that, I agree fun time. But I'm off

976
00:46:21,239 --> 00:46:24,040
Speaker 3: i X now, so yeah, we're all with them, high

977
00:46:24,200 --> 00:46:24,520
Speaker 3: on them.

978
00:46:25,040 --> 00:46:28,080
Speaker 2: A fun little narrative street to walk down is that

979
00:46:29,000 --> 00:46:34,840
Speaker 2: Rangers are now managed by Dutch soccer legend Giovanni von Broncors. Anthony,

980
00:46:35,040 --> 00:46:37,920
Speaker 2: you were probably weren't born yet when von Broncors was playing.

981
00:46:39,040 --> 00:46:41,920
Speaker 2: One of my favorite soccer memories ever is the two

982
00:46:41,960 --> 00:46:46,160
Speaker 2: thousand and six World Cup Portugal and Netherlands known as

983
00:46:46,200 --> 00:46:49,160
Speaker 2: the Battle of Nuremberg because they were just red cards everywhere.

984
00:46:49,760 --> 00:46:52,759
Speaker 2: Deco got sent off somehow. He's like the sweetest guy ever.

985
00:46:53,080 --> 00:46:55,480
Speaker 2: He's from Rotterdam, played for FI and Or that's i

986
00:46:55,600 --> 00:46:58,759
Speaker 2: Ax's biggest rival, So some fun there.

987
00:46:58,760 --> 00:47:00,239
Speaker 3: We'll be talking about fine later.

988
00:47:00,560 --> 00:47:04,879
Speaker 2: He's some fun there with Giovant Broncours and Rangers. Three

989
00:47:04,920 --> 00:47:08,640
Speaker 2: pm roup b at Letti minus one twenty five Porto

990
00:47:08,760 --> 00:47:10,640
Speaker 2: four to one on the money line at bet three

991
00:47:10,640 --> 00:47:12,680
Speaker 2: six five for this one. The draw here is plus

992
00:47:12,719 --> 00:47:14,759
Speaker 2: two forty. At Letti off to a two to one

993
00:47:14,760 --> 00:47:16,560
Speaker 2: on one start in La Liga. Five goals four to

994
00:47:16,640 --> 00:47:20,399
Speaker 2: three goals against, seven point three expected goals for, five

995
00:47:20,400 --> 00:47:23,680
Speaker 2: point five expected goles against. So this to start the

996
00:47:23,719 --> 00:47:26,799
Speaker 2: season doesn't look like your older brothers at Letty. A

997
00:47:26,800 --> 00:47:29,520
Speaker 2: lot more high event than we normally see out of them,

998
00:47:29,640 --> 00:47:31,960
Speaker 2: but they'll probably get that. I'll sort it out, trust

999
00:47:31,960 --> 00:47:35,240
Speaker 2: Simeoni to do that. Porto four zero to one in

1000
00:47:35,280 --> 00:47:38,760
Speaker 2: the Portuguese Top Division, twelve goals for four goals against.

1001
00:47:38,840 --> 00:47:41,720
Speaker 2: I think this is Porto or nothing with the price,

1002
00:47:41,960 --> 00:47:45,360
Speaker 2: but I will likely be passing here, Anthony, what do

1003
00:47:45,400 --> 00:47:45,640
Speaker 2: you have?

1004
00:47:46,280 --> 00:47:47,920
Speaker 3: I like Porto plus a half. I think these two

1005
00:47:47,920 --> 00:47:52,120
Speaker 3: teams are very similar in terms of ability and talent,

1006
00:47:52,160 --> 00:47:54,600
Speaker 3: and I think we saw that last year when they

1007
00:47:54,640 --> 00:47:57,200
Speaker 3: played in the group stage of the Champions League. They

1008
00:47:57,200 --> 00:48:00,120
Speaker 3: played twice. First of all, they finished the group with

1009
00:48:00,200 --> 00:48:03,120
Speaker 3: basically the exact same expected goals numbers, which was pretty

1010
00:48:03,120 --> 00:48:06,000
Speaker 3: wild to think about. I'd letty went through on some variants.

1011
00:48:06,000 --> 00:48:08,839
Speaker 3: But they played in the first match they played at

1012
00:48:08,880 --> 00:48:11,879
Speaker 3: Atleti and Porto was the much better side, Porto one

1013
00:48:11,880 --> 00:48:14,560
Speaker 3: point one two point three x GI. That actually under

1014
00:48:14,640 --> 00:48:16,759
Speaker 3: sells how much better Porto were. There was a very

1015
00:48:16,760 --> 00:48:20,120
Speaker 3: controversial overturn of a goal that was basically a tap in,

1016
00:48:20,440 --> 00:48:22,279
Speaker 3: so it really could have been even bigger in favor

1017
00:48:22,320 --> 00:48:24,640
Speaker 3: of Porto. I'd let you could not generate anything. The

1018
00:48:24,680 --> 00:48:27,239
Speaker 3: second match they played at Porto, i'd let you were

1019
00:48:27,280 --> 00:48:29,479
Speaker 3: the better side, but again it was a very weird game.

1020
00:48:29,640 --> 00:48:32,360
Speaker 3: Nothing happened in the first half, and then the second

1021
00:48:32,360 --> 00:48:34,839
Speaker 3: half there ended up being a three red cards given out,

1022
00:48:35,160 --> 00:48:37,560
Speaker 3: and then i'd letty kind of pulled away late with

1023
00:48:37,600 --> 00:48:41,000
Speaker 3: some extra goals and one three to one. But the

1024
00:48:41,160 --> 00:48:43,080
Speaker 3: difference between these two teams is minimal. I think this

1025
00:48:43,160 --> 00:48:45,080
Speaker 3: is you know, Michael made a joke in the last

1026
00:48:45,080 --> 00:48:47,120
Speaker 3: game about the last match about two teams just kind

1027
00:48:47,120 --> 00:48:49,240
Speaker 3: of standing there, passing around to one another and never actually

1028
00:48:49,280 --> 00:48:51,560
Speaker 3: anything happening. This would be that kind of match. There's

1029
00:48:51,600 --> 00:48:53,600
Speaker 3: a reason the totals at two point twenty five. I'm

1030
00:48:53,640 --> 00:48:55,400
Speaker 3: not playing the under, but I do think this is

1031
00:48:55,400 --> 00:48:58,440
Speaker 3: a very grinded out kind of game, and Porto's defense

1032
00:48:58,560 --> 00:49:02,000
Speaker 3: continues to be excellent. Tack is a little overrated, but

1033
00:49:02,640 --> 00:49:05,160
Speaker 3: generally speaking, I like Porto plus a half. I think,

1034
00:49:05,400 --> 00:49:07,080
Speaker 3: you know, if you gave me at Lati plus a

1035
00:49:07,120 --> 00:49:09,120
Speaker 3: half at Porto, I think I'd bet it. And if

1036
00:49:09,120 --> 00:49:11,759
Speaker 3: you give me Porto plus a half at at Lati,

1037
00:49:11,800 --> 00:49:13,400
Speaker 3: I'm gonna bet it as well. So that's really just

1038
00:49:13,400 --> 00:49:15,239
Speaker 3: where I see these two teams. And while I'm taking

1039
00:49:15,280 --> 00:49:15,759
Speaker 3: the half goal.

1040
00:49:16,320 --> 00:49:18,880
Speaker 2: The other match in group be is bruses plus two

1041
00:49:18,920 --> 00:49:22,080
Speaker 2: ten at home hosting Leverkusen, plus one fifteen on the

1042
00:49:22,120 --> 00:49:25,560
Speaker 2: road to draws plus two seventy five man Leverkusen one

1043
00:49:25,680 --> 00:49:28,200
Speaker 2: h four to start the Bundesliga season six goals, four

1044
00:49:28,320 --> 00:49:29,839
Speaker 2: nine goals against. I think a team we were all

1045
00:49:29,840 --> 00:49:32,120
Speaker 2: pretty high on at the doors.

1046
00:49:31,800 --> 00:49:33,560
Speaker 3: And shows you what we get for backing a team

1047
00:49:33,560 --> 00:49:34,200
Speaker 3: we hated so much.

1048
00:49:34,280 --> 00:49:35,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, exactly.

1049
00:49:35,239 --> 00:49:36,719
Speaker 3: I think about how much money we could have made

1050
00:49:36,760 --> 00:49:38,960
Speaker 3: fading them, after what we said last year we should

1051
00:49:38,960 --> 00:49:41,520
Speaker 3: just switched, and we bought in. I think that's my fault.

1052
00:49:41,600 --> 00:49:43,520
Speaker 3: IH helped them up a little bit. But yeah, yeah,

1053
00:49:43,520 --> 00:49:45,279
Speaker 3: it's been ugly thus far, but it won't it won't

1054
00:49:45,280 --> 00:49:45,759
Speaker 3: stay ugly.

1055
00:49:45,840 --> 00:49:48,600
Speaker 2: Their expectacles are basically you're looking at like an even

1056
00:49:48,640 --> 00:49:51,239
Speaker 2: expected goal differential at Bruges out of Belgium five one

1057
00:49:51,280 --> 00:49:53,400
Speaker 2: to one to start their league season seventeen goals for

1058
00:49:53,600 --> 00:49:56,680
Speaker 2: seven goals against. Last year they were in a group

1059
00:49:56,719 --> 00:49:59,800
Speaker 2: with with Leipzig and PSG that they got results against

1060
00:49:59,800 --> 00:50:02,799
Speaker 2: they like, say tie PSG, other than that they were

1061
00:50:02,880 --> 00:50:06,839
Speaker 2: losing by multiple goals. Is this bilo Leverkusen here, PJ.

1062
00:50:07,280 --> 00:50:09,640
Speaker 1: I think it is, and it has more to do

1063
00:50:09,719 --> 00:50:13,480
Speaker 1: with Bruges than Leverkusen, So I mean, yeah, they were

1064
00:50:13,480 --> 00:50:15,160
Speaker 1: put in the group of death. Last season they had

1065
00:50:15,160 --> 00:50:16,920
Speaker 1: a min over a minus ten expected gold of French

1066
00:50:17,080 --> 00:50:19,160
Speaker 1: I don't. I mean, it is what it is like

1067
00:50:19,280 --> 00:50:21,040
Speaker 1: they were bad, Like they did get a couple of results,

1068
00:50:21,080 --> 00:50:24,880
Speaker 1: but overall they got pounded. But what's more concerning for

1069
00:50:24,920 --> 00:50:27,640
Speaker 1: me is their numbers in Belgium. I mean, since the

1070
00:50:27,680 --> 00:50:30,480
Speaker 1: start of last season they have a plus zero point

1071
00:50:30,520 --> 00:50:33,759
Speaker 1: four to nine expected goal diffrenial per ninety minutes in

1072
00:50:33,840 --> 00:50:37,160
Speaker 1: the thirteenth most difficult league in Europe by UEFA coefficients.

1073
00:50:37,480 --> 00:50:39,200
Speaker 1: They didn't even. I mean, Belgium is a weird league.

1074
00:50:39,200 --> 00:50:41,560
Speaker 1: They don't actually play like similarly to all the other leagues.

1075
00:50:41,600 --> 00:50:44,200
Speaker 1: They have a weird playoff at the end. But they

1076
00:50:44,200 --> 00:50:46,920
Speaker 1: didn't even win the regular season like Union San Jelosi

1077
00:50:47,000 --> 00:50:49,880
Speaker 1: won the regular seasons as a newly promoted team, like

1078
00:50:49,920 --> 00:50:53,160
Speaker 1: they were not. They were not good in Belgium last season.

1079
00:50:53,320 --> 00:50:56,080
Speaker 1: You know. They they did bring in a couple guys.

1080
00:50:56,080 --> 00:50:58,719
Speaker 1: They brought in Yarmachuck from Benefica, they brought in Kyle

1081
00:50:58,800 --> 00:51:02,719
Speaker 1: Lauren from Bashita. But their best attacking player, Noel lang

1082
00:51:02,800 --> 00:51:04,600
Speaker 1: Is he's going to miss this match due to injuries.

1083
00:51:04,640 --> 00:51:09,279
Speaker 1: So I can't even. I can't get there for for

1084
00:51:09,360 --> 00:51:12,120
Speaker 1: Bruges to kind of be close to a pick them

1085
00:51:12,120 --> 00:51:15,480
Speaker 1: against leverkus I mean Leverkusen. Yeah, they overperformed, but they

1086
00:51:15,520 --> 00:51:18,040
Speaker 1: were still a point six actually for ninety minute team

1087
00:51:18,160 --> 00:51:20,880
Speaker 1: in the Bundesliga, and you know, seven point seven expected

1088
00:51:20,880 --> 00:51:24,160
Speaker 1: goals in their first five matches. Is is fine, Like

1089
00:51:24,200 --> 00:51:26,359
Speaker 1: it's it's not it's not amazing, but it's it's still

1090
00:51:26,400 --> 00:51:29,319
Speaker 1: pretty good. So yeah, this is more of a bet

1091
00:51:29,360 --> 00:51:33,440
Speaker 1: against Bruges than a bet on Leverkusen. But I do

1092
00:51:33,520 --> 00:51:36,440
Speaker 1: have lever Cuson projected at minus one seventeen, so at

1093
00:51:36,440 --> 00:51:38,040
Speaker 1: plus one twenty five, I gotta take him.

1094
00:51:38,239 --> 00:51:42,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm with you. I'll be backing the German side here.

1095
00:51:43,000 --> 00:51:46,240
Speaker 3: They did lose their their probably their best talent, Hanson

1096
00:51:46,280 --> 00:51:48,880
Speaker 3: knockin still there. But they did lose d quel Tlaier.

1097
00:51:49,920 --> 00:51:53,160
Speaker 3: I just watched the pronunciation of that one. Sorry to Charles,

1098
00:51:53,200 --> 00:51:55,719
Speaker 3: but he went to malt and he was their best

1099
00:51:55,719 --> 00:51:59,719
Speaker 3: attacking player, midfielder at least creator. So a tough loss

1100
00:51:59,760 --> 00:52:01,399
Speaker 3: for them. They were a fun team.

1101
00:52:01,440 --> 00:52:01,960
Speaker 1: I know.

1102
00:52:02,120 --> 00:52:04,560
Speaker 3: I bet them a couple of times and did Okay.

1103
00:52:04,560 --> 00:52:06,800
Speaker 1: I definitely bet them against against PSG.

1104
00:52:07,120 --> 00:52:08,960
Speaker 3: Yeah they only they should have beat PSG the first

1105
00:52:09,000 --> 00:52:11,120
Speaker 3: match of the Champions League. But yeah, I mean Bruises.

1106
00:52:11,800 --> 00:52:14,319
Speaker 3: They're they're down right now and not a team I'll

1107
00:52:14,320 --> 00:52:15,479
Speaker 3: be looking to bet on this group.

1108
00:52:15,760 --> 00:52:18,040
Speaker 2: We'll now move to Group T and we'll now move

1109
00:52:18,080 --> 00:52:22,200
Speaker 2: to Spurs minus two hundred hosting Marseille BJ. These are

1110
00:52:22,239 --> 00:52:25,600
Speaker 2: your two most hated teams. One yeah, one with one

1111
00:52:25,640 --> 00:52:26,360
Speaker 2: with your wallet.

1112
00:52:26,719 --> 00:52:29,760
Speaker 1: I hate Tottenham, I hate Marseille and I hate Frankfurt.

1113
00:52:29,760 --> 00:52:33,560
Speaker 1: So there's only briprostical nation. We only have one team, Spurs.

1114
00:52:33,600 --> 00:52:36,279
Speaker 2: There minus two hundred at home Marseille five to one

1115
00:52:36,320 --> 00:52:39,120
Speaker 2: on the road, that draws plus three fifty the French

1116
00:52:39,160 --> 00:52:41,560
Speaker 2: side off to a five one and oh win draw

1117
00:52:41,640 --> 00:52:44,800
Speaker 2: loss start in what is ever in the French League

1118
00:52:45,000 --> 00:52:49,560
Speaker 2: plus ten goal differential thirteen tank schedule the thirteen tallies

1119
00:52:49,600 --> 00:52:53,240
Speaker 2: for three against eleven point three spectacles for six point

1120
00:52:53,239 --> 00:52:57,920
Speaker 2: three spectacles against Spurs four wins, two draws, zero losses

1121
00:52:58,120 --> 00:53:00,800
Speaker 2: in the Premier League plus I've in gold with differential

1122
00:53:00,840 --> 00:53:03,960
Speaker 2: twelve four or five against ten and a half inspectacles created,

1123
00:53:04,000 --> 00:53:08,040
Speaker 2: five and a half conceded, probably coming off their best

1124
00:53:08,080 --> 00:53:11,360
Speaker 2: performance of the season against Fulham. That was a really

1125
00:53:11,880 --> 00:53:16,400
Speaker 2: stirring effort out of Tottenham. But this number is pretty crazy.

1126
00:53:16,440 --> 00:53:19,080
Speaker 2: I actually don't hate a bet on the French side here,

1127
00:53:19,239 --> 00:53:20,680
Speaker 2: but BJ you're going the other way.

1128
00:53:21,000 --> 00:53:23,960
Speaker 1: No, I love Tottenham minus one at minus one thirty four,

1129
00:53:24,960 --> 00:53:27,719
Speaker 1: let's go. I mean, sincean Antonio Conte took over Tottenham,

1130
00:53:27,719 --> 00:53:30,719
Speaker 1: they're two expectacles four per ninety and point ninety eight

1131
00:53:30,800 --> 00:53:33,839
Speaker 1: against Marseille over that same time frame is point sixty

1132
00:53:33,880 --> 00:53:36,879
Speaker 1: eight four and zero point nine to nine against So

1133
00:53:37,480 --> 00:53:42,280
Speaker 1: Tottenham is about a point five actually, differential per ninety

1134
00:53:42,280 --> 00:53:46,719
Speaker 1: minutes better than Marseille. And I have England rated point

1135
00:53:46,800 --> 00:53:50,920
Speaker 1: nine to three goals better than France. So you can

1136
00:53:50,960 --> 00:53:53,120
Speaker 1: see how I can very easily get to Tottenham minus

1137
00:53:53,120 --> 00:53:55,200
Speaker 1: one and a half minus one point seventy five. I

1138
00:53:55,200 --> 00:53:59,640
Speaker 1: mean Marseille five wins. You mentioned five wins, one draw,

1139
00:54:00,280 --> 00:54:04,280
Speaker 1: thirteen goals for off nine point three expected, three goals

1140
00:54:04,280 --> 00:54:07,399
Speaker 1: allowed off a six point six expected. Uh, they're doing

1141
00:54:07,440 --> 00:54:08,759
Speaker 1: it again. I mean, I don't know how many times,

1142
00:54:08,760 --> 00:54:11,439
Speaker 1: and you say it, but defensively, you know a little

1143
00:54:11,480 --> 00:54:14,719
Speaker 1: over one expectable allowed for ninety is fine. But they

1144
00:54:14,719 --> 00:54:18,280
Speaker 1: did that against Reems Breast, nots Claremont, foot Niss and Augier.

1145
00:54:18,800 --> 00:54:21,360
Speaker 1: That's not a murderer's row whatsoever. This is going to

1146
00:54:21,400 --> 00:54:24,680
Speaker 1: be a massive step up in competition. And I mean

1147
00:54:24,719 --> 00:54:27,480
Speaker 1: listen two years ago when Marseille was in the Champions League,

1148
00:54:27,480 --> 00:54:29,160
Speaker 1: they were in a really easy group and they were

1149
00:54:29,520 --> 00:54:33,799
Speaker 1: horrendous against Olibiaco's Porto and Manchester City. So and also

1150
00:54:34,160 --> 00:54:36,719
Speaker 1: it looks like Dimitri Piat might miss this match. I

1151
00:54:36,760 --> 00:54:38,799
Speaker 1: mean he didn't play over the weekend. He was a

1152
00:54:38,840 --> 00:54:42,640
Speaker 1: point seventy three x G plus expected assist per ninety

1153
00:54:42,680 --> 00:54:47,000
Speaker 1: in Leon so I mean I have I'm playing Tottenham

1154
00:54:47,120 --> 00:54:49,200
Speaker 1: minus one and minus one thirty four. Don't hate minus

1155
00:54:49,200 --> 00:54:53,400
Speaker 1: one and a half either. I think this has Spurs

1156
00:54:53,480 --> 00:54:57,160
Speaker 1: blowout written all over it. Their team Tottenham like I mean,

1157
00:54:57,160 --> 00:54:59,600
Speaker 1: they're good like like they are. They are good like

1158
00:54:59,600 --> 00:55:00,000
Speaker 1: they're good.

1159
00:55:00,120 --> 00:55:01,400
Speaker 2: But are they are they?

1160
00:55:01,560 --> 00:55:01,759
Speaker 1: Yes?

1161
00:55:01,840 --> 00:55:02,879
Speaker 2: Are they the type of team that.

1162
00:55:03,000 --> 00:55:03,680
Speaker 3: I think they're cheap?

1163
00:55:04,000 --> 00:55:04,320
Speaker 1: Yeah?

1164
00:55:04,440 --> 00:55:06,279
Speaker 3: I agree with BJ I mean, look, I think from

1165
00:55:06,280 --> 00:55:08,560
Speaker 3: a narrative perspective, you're going to hear and they lead

1166
00:55:08,640 --> 00:55:12,040
Speaker 3: up all. You know, tricky game for Spurs. Marseille looking

1167
00:55:12,120 --> 00:55:14,799
Speaker 3: really good in France this season, but we know the

1168
00:55:14,800 --> 00:55:18,040
Speaker 3: truth about this Marseille team and every time they go

1169
00:55:18,120 --> 00:55:21,920
Speaker 3: up in competition they've gotten kind of cooked. Look, I mean,

1170
00:55:22,000 --> 00:55:23,919
Speaker 3: look at some of the teams we talked about last year.

1171
00:55:24,520 --> 00:55:26,520
Speaker 3: I think we've had a good start to the season

1172
00:55:26,680 --> 00:55:30,600
Speaker 3: in terms of generally directionally being on the teams who

1173
00:55:30,640 --> 00:55:33,200
Speaker 3: are just frauds and picking them off. And then look

1174
00:55:33,200 --> 00:55:37,359
Speaker 3: how they're doing this year. Number one, Leicester City, number two,

1175
00:55:38,000 --> 00:55:41,160
Speaker 3: number three, Liverpool to a lesser extent, number four and

1176
00:55:41,600 --> 00:55:44,880
Speaker 3: we kind of missed our boat here, but Leverkusen, Frankfurt,

1177
00:55:45,000 --> 00:55:48,520
Speaker 3: like all these fraud teams, Manchester United eventually, Well they

1178
00:55:48,600 --> 00:55:50,160
Speaker 3: might be the other, they might be the opposite side

1179
00:55:50,160 --> 00:55:53,799
Speaker 3: of that BJ but but well we'll get to that.

1180
00:55:54,080 --> 00:55:56,279
Speaker 3: But think about across the board and then you know

1181
00:55:56,320 --> 00:55:58,360
Speaker 3: there's a couple that have held out longer than others.

1182
00:55:58,480 --> 00:56:02,840
Speaker 3: You know, Lazzio is held out, Marseille continues to run really,

1183
00:56:02,920 --> 00:56:05,200
Speaker 3: really well. And that's kind of how it works. Like

1184
00:56:05,200 --> 00:56:07,760
Speaker 3: your teams aren't just gonna because we say they're performing

1185
00:56:07,840 --> 00:56:10,160
Speaker 3: right now, that doesn't mean that tomorrow's match is the

1186
00:56:10,200 --> 00:56:12,920
Speaker 3: day that they're going to finally regress back to what

1187
00:56:12,960 --> 00:56:15,879
Speaker 3: their mean is. But Marseille is a team who are

1188
00:56:15,920 --> 00:56:17,960
Speaker 3: going to get pounded in the coming I think in

1189
00:56:18,000 --> 00:56:20,239
Speaker 3: the Champions League group might maybe not because of how

1190
00:56:20,280 --> 00:56:23,240
Speaker 3: bad it is, but this is a good Spurs spot.

1191
00:56:23,560 --> 00:56:26,759
Speaker 3: The biggest difference for Spurs on Saturday against Fulham, and

1192
00:56:26,920 --> 00:56:29,880
Speaker 3: I was honestly scared because I had my plus one

1193
00:56:29,920 --> 00:56:32,080
Speaker 3: in a quarter which I was very fortunate to cash

1194
00:56:32,239 --> 00:56:34,920
Speaker 3: half of. But as soon as I's on the lineup,

1195
00:56:35,000 --> 00:56:37,719
Speaker 3: I saw, okay, Romero's back long lay is in. They're

1196
00:56:37,719 --> 00:56:40,520
Speaker 3: gonna have much better ball progression through the defense to

1197
00:56:40,560 --> 00:56:42,680
Speaker 3: the midfield and then they're going to probably dominate this

1198
00:56:42,760 --> 00:56:45,560
Speaker 3: match and like cockwork they did so. I saw all

1199
00:56:45,600 --> 00:56:47,960
Speaker 3: the Fulham's team late and I almost got out. But

1200
00:56:48,480 --> 00:56:51,920
Speaker 3: Spurs definitely played better and I think that's the biggest difference,

1201
00:56:52,480 --> 00:56:54,319
Speaker 3: and you know, we'll see what the lineup looks like.

1202
00:56:54,719 --> 00:56:57,279
Speaker 3: Y Charleston's work great was impressive as well. I just

1203
00:56:57,360 --> 00:56:58,560
Speaker 3: think Marseille is overmatched here.

1204
00:56:58,840 --> 00:57:01,359
Speaker 2: It's worked great, telling you guys for years at this guy,

1205
00:57:02,080 --> 00:57:05,440
Speaker 2: the hardest working, the hardest working guy in the Premier League.

1206
00:57:05,719 --> 00:57:08,560
Speaker 2: I miss some dearly last match on the board for

1207
00:57:08,640 --> 00:57:10,960
Speaker 2: us to discuss sticking in Group D. This is a

1208
00:57:10,960 --> 00:57:14,560
Speaker 2: twelve forty five pm kickoff. Frankfurt plus one ten, one

1209
00:57:14,560 --> 00:57:17,240
Speaker 2: of the frauds we've talked about. They're plus one ten

1210
00:57:17,280 --> 00:57:20,200
Speaker 2: at home hosting Sporting out of Portugal, plus two twenty

1211
00:57:20,520 --> 00:57:22,240
Speaker 2: draw here is plus two sixty. This one is pretty

1212
00:57:22,240 --> 00:57:25,720
Speaker 2: easy for us. I think you know our thoughts on Frankfurt.

1213
00:57:25,800 --> 00:57:28,600
Speaker 2: But here's where they're at the Bundesliga to two and

1214
00:57:28,720 --> 00:57:32,760
Speaker 2: one BANG average eleven goals four eleven goals against, BANG

1215
00:57:32,800 --> 00:57:36,480
Speaker 2: average eight expected goals for, nine expected goals against very

1216
00:57:36,560 --> 00:57:40,200
Speaker 2: slightly below average. Sporting two one to two eight goals

1217
00:57:40,240 --> 00:57:44,320
Speaker 2: for eight goals against. In Portugal looking average as well. Average, Yeah,

1218
00:57:44,440 --> 00:57:47,160
Speaker 2: looking pretty average as well. But look at the line.

1219
00:57:47,880 --> 00:57:50,880
Speaker 2: You're getting one team when you just for home field advantage,

1220
00:57:50,960 --> 00:57:54,000
Speaker 2: looking like it would be a decent like a slight

1221
00:57:54,040 --> 00:57:56,720
Speaker 2: favorite on a neutral venue. I think it should be flipped.

1222
00:57:57,000 --> 00:58:01,240
Speaker 2: I like Sporting BJ Frankfurt. They drive you nuts, yep.

1223
00:58:01,400 --> 00:58:03,800
Speaker 2: So I'm assuming we're going to be on the same

1224
00:58:03,800 --> 00:58:04,280
Speaker 2: side here.

1225
00:58:04,480 --> 00:58:06,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean it look good. They look good against

1226
00:58:06,040 --> 00:58:08,320
Speaker 1: Arvey Leipsig. I don't really know what. I don't know

1227
00:58:08,360 --> 00:58:11,400
Speaker 1: what happened in that match, honestly, I don't. I did

1228
00:58:11,400 --> 00:58:13,439
Speaker 1: not see that coming. But I don't think it's something

1229
00:58:13,480 --> 00:58:15,880
Speaker 1: that's going to continue. I mean, this is a Frankfurt

1230
00:58:15,880 --> 00:58:19,520
Speaker 1: team that we've talked about a lot, that was a

1231
00:58:19,560 --> 00:58:22,439
Speaker 1: minus seven expected gold diffrenchal in the Bundesliga last year,

1232
00:58:22,600 --> 00:58:26,400
Speaker 1: and losing Fleet Costik is going to be a big loss.

1233
00:58:26,760 --> 00:58:29,960
Speaker 1: Didn't seem so on Saturday against Arby Leipzig. But this

1234
00:58:30,080 --> 00:58:32,880
Speaker 1: is a really good sporting team. They were a plus

1235
00:58:32,920 --> 00:58:35,600
Speaker 1: one point four to one actually differential per ninety man.

1236
00:58:35,640 --> 00:58:38,160
Speaker 1: It's just that alone compared to what Frankfurt was in

1237
00:58:38,160 --> 00:58:41,960
Speaker 1: the Bundesliga. I mean, that's just that's crazy. The gap

1238
00:58:42,000 --> 00:58:45,080
Speaker 1: between Germany and Portugal really isn't as big as I

1239
00:58:45,120 --> 00:58:47,880
Speaker 1: think many people will think it would be. And you know,

1240
00:58:48,160 --> 00:58:52,360
Speaker 1: obviously Sporting listen, they lost Polina to Fulham, they lost

1241
00:58:52,400 --> 00:58:56,200
Speaker 1: the Faas New Nass to Wolves, but you know they

1242
00:58:56,240 --> 00:58:58,680
Speaker 1: still have their defense back that allowed only point sixty

1243
00:58:58,720 --> 00:59:01,280
Speaker 1: five xtal per ninety in Portuguese League. They got out

1244
00:59:01,320 --> 00:59:04,840
Speaker 1: of a group Champions League group last season with IAX,

1245
00:59:04,880 --> 00:59:08,720
Speaker 1: Dortmann and Bishitas. Yes i AX pasted them, Yes they

1246
00:59:08,960 --> 00:59:12,640
Speaker 1: pasted Bashitas, but over the two legs against Dortmund, who

1247
00:59:12,720 --> 00:59:16,400
Speaker 1: is way better than Frankfurt. If Sporting was two point

1248
00:59:16,440 --> 00:59:19,200
Speaker 1: one expected goals for only two against over the two legs,

1249
00:59:19,240 --> 00:59:21,280
Speaker 1: and that was a Dortmund team with Earling Hollins. So

1250
00:59:22,040 --> 00:59:24,960
Speaker 1: this line is crazy to me. I am Sporting projected

1251
00:59:25,000 --> 00:59:26,479
Speaker 1: as a favorite, which I know a lot of people

1252
00:59:26,480 --> 00:59:29,480
Speaker 1: are probably gonna think that's kind of crazy. But mathematically,

1253
00:59:29,840 --> 00:59:32,440
Speaker 1: when you boil it down, when since Frankfurt's a negative

1254
00:59:32,480 --> 00:59:34,760
Speaker 1: expected goal to evinials since the start of last season,

1255
00:59:35,840 --> 00:59:37,640
Speaker 1: it's it's really not And even if you look at

1256
00:59:37,640 --> 00:59:40,160
Speaker 1: transfer market, the total squad value of these two teams,

1257
00:59:40,160 --> 00:59:43,160
Speaker 1: they're pretty much even, so actually not that crazy. I

1258
00:59:43,160 --> 00:59:47,120
Speaker 1: think Sporting is way undervalue here, so I love them.

1259
00:59:47,240 --> 00:59:49,120
Speaker 1: You can even get them plus half a goal at

1260
00:59:49,200 --> 00:59:51,840
Speaker 1: minus one forty five right now, which seems crazy to me.

1261
00:59:51,880 --> 00:59:54,200
Speaker 1: So that's what I'm going to take them ass all right.

1262
00:59:54,560 --> 00:59:56,520
Speaker 2: With that, we will move on to our favorite bets

1263
00:59:56,520 --> 01:00:01,040
Speaker 2: for UEFA Champions League Match Week one, coming to you Tuesday,

1264
01:00:01,520 --> 01:00:06,880
Speaker 2: September sixth Wednesday, September seventh, Anthony, let's start with you.

1265
01:00:07,240 --> 01:00:09,560
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm gonna take Inter Milan plus a half at

1266
01:00:09,640 --> 01:00:13,080
Speaker 3: minus one ten at home against Bayern Munich. We talked

1267
01:00:13,080 --> 01:00:16,280
Speaker 3: about this earlier. The price on this suggests that in

1268
01:00:16,360 --> 01:00:17,920
Speaker 3: order to bet Byron you need to think they're the

1269
01:00:17,920 --> 01:00:20,120
Speaker 3: best team in the world. I do not think that.

1270
01:00:20,280 --> 01:00:23,560
Speaker 3: I think Inter has earned respect with their excellent underlying

1271
01:00:23,640 --> 01:00:26,480
Speaker 3: numbers in Syria, even though it hasn't quite come through.

1272
01:00:26,520 --> 01:00:28,960
Speaker 3: They've lost a Lotzio, They've lost to Milan, A lot

1273
01:00:28,960 --> 01:00:31,400
Speaker 3: of that was more variance than actual performance. They won

1274
01:00:31,440 --> 01:00:34,439
Speaker 3: the expected goals battle in both of those matches. They've

1275
01:00:34,480 --> 01:00:37,320
Speaker 3: been very good to start the season. They've added Romolukaku

1276
01:00:37,400 --> 01:00:39,840
Speaker 3: to what was the best team in Italy last year

1277
01:00:39,840 --> 01:00:44,560
Speaker 3: by XG. Byron have lost Lewandowski, so from a striker perspective.

1278
01:00:44,680 --> 01:00:46,560
Speaker 3: Even if you think Byron will be fine without him,

1279
01:00:46,600 --> 01:00:48,920
Speaker 3: and I am one of those people, you have to

1280
01:00:48,960 --> 01:00:51,280
Speaker 3: downgrade them a little bit, at least in the short term.

1281
01:00:51,600 --> 01:00:54,760
Speaker 3: And Byron are just not quite good enough to get

1282
01:00:54,760 --> 01:00:56,760
Speaker 3: to that current number. So I like Enter plus a

1283
01:00:56,800 --> 01:00:58,880
Speaker 3: half at home. They gave Liverpool a lot of problems

1284
01:00:58,960 --> 01:01:02,040
Speaker 3: last year in similar fixture, in a similar spot. I

1285
01:01:02,200 --> 01:01:06,479
Speaker 3: like the Boys Inter at home plus half.

1286
01:01:06,760 --> 01:01:10,000
Speaker 2: All right, let's start the Champions League off with a bang.

1287
01:01:10,000 --> 01:01:12,400
Speaker 2: I like Rangers plus five point fifty on the money

1288
01:01:12,400 --> 01:01:15,720
Speaker 2: line against IAX. This is more a bet against IAX

1289
01:01:15,760 --> 01:01:17,960
Speaker 2: than a bet on Rangers. This is a team that,

1290
01:01:18,640 --> 01:01:20,000
Speaker 2: yeah they're off to a great start in the air

1291
01:01:20,120 --> 01:01:23,280
Speaker 2: de Vise, but not the toughest league out there in

1292
01:01:23,400 --> 01:01:26,960
Speaker 2: the Netherlands. And this is not the same IX team

1293
01:01:27,000 --> 01:01:29,040
Speaker 2: that we've seen have a lot of Champions League success

1294
01:01:29,080 --> 01:01:31,200
Speaker 2: over the past few years. They lost Anthony, they lost

1295
01:01:31,200 --> 01:01:36,000
Speaker 2: sebastianal There, Losandro Martinez and their manager Eric Tannagg over

1296
01:01:36,080 --> 01:01:39,040
Speaker 2: the summer, and yet they're still being priced like the

1297
01:01:39,120 --> 01:01:42,480
Speaker 2: team that had those players and that manager. Minus two

1298
01:01:42,520 --> 01:01:45,760
Speaker 2: twenty three at home is absurd. Rangers, they already got

1299
01:01:45,760 --> 01:01:48,280
Speaker 2: through Champions League qualifying, so they're in the kind of

1300
01:01:48,280 --> 01:01:51,600
Speaker 2: the rhythm of the tournament schedule, playing midweek matches, going

1301
01:01:51,640 --> 01:01:54,920
Speaker 2: to a way to tough places, including the Netherlands, and

1302
01:01:54,960 --> 01:01:57,520
Speaker 2: this is just a great price to go against a

1303
01:01:57,520 --> 01:02:01,320
Speaker 2: team that we all think is overrated in this match,

1304
01:02:01,400 --> 01:02:04,040
Speaker 2: but in the tournament at large. On the board, so

1305
01:02:04,120 --> 01:02:06,240
Speaker 2: I'll be taking a shot here Rangers plus five to

1306
01:02:06,320 --> 01:02:10,080
Speaker 2: fifty and of course sprinkling the all Scottish parlay Rangers

1307
01:02:10,080 --> 01:02:13,760
Speaker 2: and Celtics thirty two to one. BJ your favorite bet.

1308
01:02:13,920 --> 01:02:15,880
Speaker 1: Sporting Lis been plus half a goal at minus one

1309
01:02:16,040 --> 01:02:18,680
Speaker 1: forty five. It just talked about it. But Frankfurt since

1310
01:02:18,720 --> 01:02:21,400
Speaker 1: started last season is a minus seven expected gold differential

1311
01:02:21,600 --> 01:02:24,600
Speaker 1: in the Bundesliga and they just lost their best attacking player,

1312
01:02:24,840 --> 01:02:28,120
Speaker 1: Philip Kostitch to Juventus. So now comes in Sporting, who

1313
01:02:28,160 --> 01:02:30,440
Speaker 1: had a plus one point four to one expected gold

1314
01:02:30,440 --> 01:02:33,240
Speaker 1: differential per ninety minutes in the Portuguese League last season.

1315
01:02:33,360 --> 01:02:35,880
Speaker 1: Oh and they also just got out of a Champions

1316
01:02:36,000 --> 01:02:40,120
Speaker 1: League group last season with IAX, Bashitas and Dortmund. Yes

1317
01:02:40,200 --> 01:02:42,800
Speaker 1: they got paced by IX, yes they killed Bashitas, but

1318
01:02:43,640 --> 01:02:46,479
Speaker 1: when they played Dortmund, who is also another German team,

1319
01:02:46,520 --> 01:02:50,080
Speaker 1: that's way better than Frankfurt. Sporting beat them on expected

1320
01:02:50,080 --> 01:02:53,280
Speaker 1: goals two point one to two. So it's a little

1321
01:02:53,280 --> 01:02:55,960
Speaker 1: insane to me that frankfort is a plus one twenty

1322
01:02:55,960 --> 01:02:58,360
Speaker 1: five favorite at home. So give me Sporting plus half

1323
01:02:58,400 --> 01:03:00,880
Speaker 1: a goal at minus one forty five and real quick.

1324
01:03:01,040 --> 01:03:02,920
Speaker 2: Just to wrap it up, there's still Europa League. If

1325
01:03:02,920 --> 01:03:06,320
Speaker 2: europe A Conference League matches coming our way on Thursday,

1326
01:03:06,560 --> 01:03:08,640
Speaker 2: can you do, guys, give us your favorite bet in

1327
01:03:08,720 --> 01:03:11,479
Speaker 2: those competition one minute each BJA you go first.

1328
01:03:11,680 --> 01:03:14,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm gonna go Sheriff plus half a goal.

1329
01:03:14,600 --> 01:03:15,080
Speaker 3: They're back.

1330
01:03:15,160 --> 01:03:20,960
Speaker 1: They're back Bay on the Island against Omnia Nikosia out

1331
01:03:20,960 --> 01:03:24,080
Speaker 1: of Cyprus. I'm really not sure Sheriff should be underdogs here.

1332
01:03:24,680 --> 01:03:29,000
Speaker 1: Nikosia UH in the Ciprot First Division last season only

1333
01:03:29,080 --> 01:03:32,120
Speaker 1: had a plus point one seven expected gold differential per

1334
01:03:32,240 --> 01:03:35,360
Speaker 1: ninety minutes. That's the twenty first most difficult league by

1335
01:03:35,480 --> 01:03:38,640
Speaker 1: UE coefficients. Would be yeah, you like this, Michael. The

1336
01:03:39,240 --> 01:03:42,640
Speaker 1: Nikosia managers Neil Lennon, who formally managed from we managed

1337
01:03:42,640 --> 01:03:45,320
Speaker 1: Celtic into the ground. They were in a Europa Conference

1338
01:03:45,400 --> 01:03:49,400
Speaker 1: League group with Quara bag Basel and a Kazakhstan club

1339
01:03:49,720 --> 01:03:52,640
Speaker 1: Coat Almati. Uh, they did not win a match and

1340
01:03:52,680 --> 01:03:55,920
Speaker 1: they had a negative seven gold differential, but somehow they're

1341
01:03:55,960 --> 01:03:59,200
Speaker 1: favored at home against Sheriff who the jugger or not?

1342
01:03:59,520 --> 01:04:02,360
Speaker 1: I mean, yeah, yeah they. I mean in the if

1343
01:04:02,400 --> 01:04:05,320
Speaker 1: we remove the matches against Real Madrid and enter against Shaktar.

1344
01:04:05,520 --> 01:04:08,280
Speaker 1: And then when they got in the Europa League knockout stage,

1345
01:04:08,320 --> 01:04:10,840
Speaker 1: they based Braga. They did have a minus two point

1346
01:04:10,840 --> 01:04:13,040
Speaker 1: seven expected gold diferential, but that's pretty good for a

1347
01:04:13,080 --> 01:04:17,680
Speaker 1: team from Moldova, honestly. And I mean in the Moldova

1348
01:04:17,760 --> 01:04:19,800
Speaker 1: League they're at one point two x gal per ninety

1349
01:04:20,600 --> 01:04:22,760
Speaker 1: xtre differential per ninety minutes. If you look at total

1350
01:04:22,800 --> 01:04:26,680
Speaker 1: squad transfer value, the coast is nineteen million, Sheriff is

1351
01:04:26,720 --> 01:04:30,680
Speaker 1: fifteen million. So I mean I have a sheriff actually

1352
01:04:30,720 --> 01:04:33,840
Speaker 1: projected his slight favorite Walo Island, and five thirty eight

1353
01:04:33,880 --> 01:04:36,120
Speaker 1: agrees with me because they have Sheriff for forty two percent.

1354
01:04:36,200 --> 01:04:38,840
Speaker 1: So give me FC Sheriff plus half a gold minus

1355
01:04:38,880 --> 01:04:40,440
Speaker 1: one forty and I'll be sprinkling the money line at

1356
01:04:40,440 --> 01:04:40,919
Speaker 1: plus two.

1357
01:04:40,840 --> 01:04:43,200
Speaker 2: Fifty antey, I don't know how you can tap that,

1358
01:04:43,240 --> 01:04:44,040
Speaker 2: but give it a shot.

1359
01:04:44,040 --> 01:04:45,280
Speaker 3: I don't I don't need the top it I got

1360
01:04:45,320 --> 01:04:47,560
Speaker 3: the better team as well. I got we the Nord

1361
01:04:47,560 --> 01:04:51,000
Speaker 3: FI and Nord on the road at Lazio. Look, this

1362
01:04:51,120 --> 01:04:53,800
Speaker 3: is like the textbook, like bet on bet against team.

1363
01:04:53,960 --> 01:04:55,680
Speaker 3: I know fine Nord lost a couple of pieces from

1364
01:04:55,720 --> 01:04:58,320
Speaker 3: last year's team, but five thirty eight had them rated

1365
01:04:58,320 --> 01:05:01,360
Speaker 3: as a top fifteen attacking team in the world, and

1366
01:05:01,400 --> 01:05:04,240
Speaker 3: they were really good. Their numbers were right below I

1367
01:05:04,480 --> 01:05:07,640
Speaker 3: X but very good in the air Davis. They got

1368
01:05:07,680 --> 01:05:11,000
Speaker 3: to the Conference League final. They steamrolled a couple of

1369
01:05:11,000 --> 01:05:13,400
Speaker 3: teams in the way, including our Marseille boys. So they

1370
01:05:13,440 --> 01:05:16,480
Speaker 3: are the luck box beaters and they will be getting

1371
01:05:16,520 --> 01:05:20,920
Speaker 3: a result at Lotzio, who is in a another tough

1372
01:05:20,960 --> 01:05:23,800
Speaker 3: loss or a tough loss for them over the weekend. Lotzio.

1373
01:05:24,680 --> 01:05:26,959
Speaker 3: They rely a lot on big scoring chances. They're gonna

1374
01:05:26,960 --> 01:05:28,160
Speaker 3: have a lot of the ball here, but find it

1375
01:05:28,440 --> 01:05:32,400
Speaker 3: very dangerous in transition and countertacking. So I like the

1376
01:05:32,440 --> 01:05:33,720
Speaker 3: Nord to get a good result here.

1377
01:05:33,960 --> 01:05:37,040
Speaker 2: All right, That does it for our first Champions League

1378
01:05:37,160 --> 01:05:41,680
Speaker 2: match preview episode for Beja Cunningham, for Anthony Dubundo, I,

1379
01:05:41,720 --> 01:05:43,840
Speaker 2: Michael Leeboff. This has been wonder goal presented to by

1380
01:05:43,880 --> 01:05:47,440
Speaker 2: Bet three six five the world's favorite sportsbook brand. Sign

1381
01:05:47,520 --> 01:05:49,760
Speaker 2: up with the promo code Action to get Bet three

1382
01:05:49,800 --> 01:05:53,120
Speaker 2: six fives exclusive sign up offer in New Jersey and Colorado.

1383
01:05:53,400 --> 01:05:55,360
Speaker 2: Bet one dollar on any game and you get two

1384
01:05:55,480 --> 01:05:59,000
Speaker 2: hundred free. We will see you guys on Thursday morning

1385
01:05:59,000 --> 01:06:01,160
Speaker 2: for our Premier League previews. Until then, best of LUFT

1386
01:06:01,640 --> 01:06:12,960
Speaker 2: in Europe this week, Hm,