1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:06,760 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:11,960 --> 00:00:15,560 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene along 3 00:00:15,600 --> 00:00:18,960 Speaker 2: with Paul Sweeney. Join us each day for insight from 4 00:00:18,960 --> 00:00:23,119 Speaker 2: the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You 5 00:00:23,160 --> 00:00:26,520 Speaker 2: can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the 6 00:00:26,520 --> 00:00:31,280 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday 7 00:00:31,280 --> 00:00:34,320 Speaker 2: mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from our global 8 00:00:34,360 --> 00:00:39,000 Speaker 2: headquarters in New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, 9 00:00:39,360 --> 00:00:42,920 Speaker 2: or anywhere else you listen and always I'm Bloomberg Radio, 10 00:00:43,080 --> 00:00:46,919 Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App. As I've 11 00:00:46,920 --> 00:00:50,159 Speaker 2: said many times, we've protect the copyright of all of 12 00:00:50,200 --> 00:00:53,520 Speaker 2: our guests. You can go to evercore Isa to find 13 00:00:53,560 --> 00:00:58,320 Speaker 2: the daily thoughts of Ed Heiban. I get no greater response. 14 00:00:58,360 --> 00:01:00,240 Speaker 2: Can you send me a note? Can you say me? 15 00:01:00,400 --> 00:01:04,839 Speaker 2: Is please? Tom Burial tickets, Oriole tickets. Can you send 16 00:01:04,840 --> 00:01:07,520 Speaker 2: me a note? No, I can't. And what you need 17 00:01:07,560 --> 00:01:10,000 Speaker 2: to know is on page six of the note, he's 18 00:01:10,040 --> 00:01:13,520 Speaker 2: talking about the glory of Buba's coming in a gorgeous spread. 19 00:01:13,560 --> 00:01:18,280 Speaker 2: That's the Damien world. But on page four is classic Ed. Heyman, 20 00:01:19,360 --> 00:01:22,760 Speaker 2: I've been too resistant to this time is different thinking. 21 00:01:22,840 --> 00:01:26,800 Speaker 2: He goes on to say he's grappling with any number 22 00:01:26,880 --> 00:01:32,200 Speaker 2: of issues here about the inflation impulse. Ed, heyman, this 23 00:01:32,280 --> 00:01:34,039 Speaker 2: time is different or is it not. 24 00:01:36,120 --> 00:01:40,319 Speaker 3: I'll let you know next time I see you. I'm 25 00:01:40,360 --> 00:01:42,800 Speaker 3: really struggling with this. I don't think it's different at 26 00:01:42,800 --> 00:01:48,280 Speaker 3: this time. It's always different. But when you look back 27 00:01:48,280 --> 00:01:53,200 Speaker 3: at it, I've been through seven recessions. Everyone has been 28 00:01:54,640 --> 00:01:57,360 Speaker 3: associated with an inverted deal curve and there have been 29 00:01:57,360 --> 00:02:02,120 Speaker 3: no full signals and so but you know, live and learn. 30 00:02:02,280 --> 00:02:03,360 Speaker 3: Maybe it is there for this. 31 00:02:03,280 --> 00:02:06,680 Speaker 2: Is it because of the pandemic and fiscal impulse's the 32 00:02:06,840 --> 00:02:09,680 Speaker 2: overlay of an immigration impulse in. 33 00:02:09,680 --> 00:02:17,600 Speaker 3: An AI job market AI in there, so the the 34 00:02:17,639 --> 00:02:21,680 Speaker 3: impulse from the pandemic. If we put all this money 35 00:02:21,680 --> 00:02:25,560 Speaker 3: supply in the system and all the checks which of 36 00:02:25,560 --> 00:02:29,200 Speaker 3: course go as a pair, and some of that money 37 00:02:29,200 --> 00:02:33,000 Speaker 3: is still in the system, if you're paying the golfers, 38 00:02:33,520 --> 00:02:37,080 Speaker 3: women golfers more and you know more. 39 00:02:37,240 --> 00:02:38,919 Speaker 1: I have to ask you this question. You know you're 40 00:02:38,919 --> 00:02:40,960 Speaker 1: on a deserted island, you know, a small island like 41 00:02:40,960 --> 00:02:44,080 Speaker 1: the Dominican Republic for example, and you know you have 42 00:02:44,120 --> 00:02:47,320 Speaker 1: one indicator, one financial market indicator to your to that 43 00:02:47,400 --> 00:02:49,720 Speaker 1: you can access. What would that be like? What indicator 44 00:02:49,760 --> 00:02:51,760 Speaker 1: do you lean on right now in this market to 45 00:02:51,800 --> 00:02:53,000 Speaker 1: look at what's your favorite? 46 00:02:53,440 --> 00:02:58,680 Speaker 3: You're leading the windows here, you know, so hands down 47 00:02:59,000 --> 00:03:04,880 Speaker 3: credit spreads when just I mean, I do love econometric work. 48 00:03:05,919 --> 00:03:09,200 Speaker 3: They scream at you. And when they go down, it 49 00:03:09,240 --> 00:03:13,760 Speaker 3: says things are pretty good, and when they go up, 50 00:03:13,800 --> 00:03:17,600 Speaker 3: it says things are pretty bad. And right now spreads 51 00:03:18,480 --> 00:03:22,160 Speaker 3: are tightening up, they're coming down, and so at the 52 00:03:22,240 --> 00:03:27,079 Speaker 3: moment it's beginning to be sprying here in the Tristate area, 53 00:03:27,919 --> 00:03:32,360 Speaker 3: and everything's looking pretty good, but spreads are really critical. 54 00:03:32,400 --> 00:03:33,800 Speaker 3: I watched the BAA spread. 55 00:03:33,960 --> 00:03:36,480 Speaker 1: I don't know, of course, now it's a financial condition. 56 00:03:36,480 --> 00:03:38,120 Speaker 1: It's one of the primary inputs. I mean. The other 57 00:03:38,160 --> 00:03:39,840 Speaker 1: thing I think Tom that we have to kind of 58 00:03:39,840 --> 00:03:42,760 Speaker 1: look at as inflation. And you know some of our guests, 59 00:03:42,800 --> 00:03:45,240 Speaker 1: you know Sebastian who's on earlier, he would argue that 60 00:03:45,280 --> 00:03:48,600 Speaker 1: it's the one year US Treasury break even rate, which 61 00:03:48,960 --> 00:03:51,080 Speaker 1: has basically been guiding markets. So I guess it's a 62 00:03:51,840 --> 00:03:53,360 Speaker 1: kind of a tug of war until you get that 63 00:03:53,600 --> 00:03:56,240 Speaker 1: gap ris that upside movement spreads. Is it going to 64 00:03:56,240 --> 00:03:57,960 Speaker 1: be an inflation story here in the US, or is 65 00:03:57,960 --> 00:03:59,760 Speaker 1: it going to be more growth? Is it more mag seven? 66 00:04:00,240 --> 00:04:02,000 Speaker 3: You mean inflating going up or going down? 67 00:04:02,080 --> 00:04:03,840 Speaker 1: Going up, staying high and stinking. 68 00:04:04,080 --> 00:04:08,040 Speaker 3: So at the moment staying high. You know, my feeling 69 00:04:08,840 --> 00:04:15,040 Speaker 3: is that things are slowing. It's my h You won't 70 00:04:15,040 --> 00:04:18,120 Speaker 3: have anybody on your show here as old as I am. 71 00:04:19,040 --> 00:04:21,479 Speaker 2: Well, you're looking at me. 72 00:04:24,000 --> 00:04:25,320 Speaker 3: I know I'm looking at you because. 73 00:04:25,400 --> 00:04:27,880 Speaker 2: Joneald Robertson once said exactly the same thing to me. 74 00:04:28,240 --> 00:04:31,400 Speaker 2: So we miss him. We miss him every day. Gosh 75 00:04:31,720 --> 00:04:34,640 Speaker 2: to your disinflation point. And what's important, your folks, is 76 00:04:34,680 --> 00:04:38,040 Speaker 2: the micro data that Edheiman looks at. You have a 77 00:04:38,160 --> 00:04:43,640 Speaker 2: fabulous chart of multifami family units booming back to the 78 00:04:43,720 --> 00:04:48,160 Speaker 2: nineteen seventies when you and I were wider lapels. I mean, 79 00:04:48,200 --> 00:04:51,360 Speaker 2: the basic line is j Powell getting a fake out here? 80 00:04:51,520 --> 00:04:54,359 Speaker 2: If you were at aea Right Economic Club of New 81 00:04:54,440 --> 00:04:57,839 Speaker 2: York and you're there asking Jr. Own Pola question after 82 00:04:57,880 --> 00:05:00,120 Speaker 2: he gives a speech, and you're going to say, hey, 83 00:05:00,800 --> 00:05:05,680 Speaker 2: Chairman Powell, what about the overcapacity of multifamily? Is there 84 00:05:05,720 --> 00:05:09,679 Speaker 2: going to be a disinflationary tendency in rents in Oe 85 00:05:10,000 --> 00:05:11,960 Speaker 2: er and other shelter ideas. Sure. 86 00:05:12,640 --> 00:05:14,400 Speaker 3: I mean it feels to me like it's coming, just 87 00:05:14,440 --> 00:05:16,400 Speaker 3: as sure as I'm sitting here. 88 00:05:17,800 --> 00:05:18,800 Speaker 2: There's a huge. 89 00:05:20,400 --> 00:05:24,520 Speaker 3: Record number of apartments under construction right now. It takes 90 00:05:24,520 --> 00:05:27,560 Speaker 3: a year and a half, and so that'll be hitting 91 00:05:27,600 --> 00:05:30,200 Speaker 3: the market this year and next year. Should put down 92 00:05:30,240 --> 00:05:33,200 Speaker 3: pressure on rents, which has been one of the stickier 93 00:05:33,240 --> 00:05:36,560 Speaker 3: parts of it. But that's a detail to it'll influence 94 00:05:36,600 --> 00:05:39,200 Speaker 3: the numbers a lot. But the real question is what 95 00:05:39,279 --> 00:05:44,360 Speaker 3: happens to wages And if wages slow, then inflation will slow. 96 00:05:44,480 --> 00:05:46,080 Speaker 2: Do you see that in your microdata? 97 00:05:46,279 --> 00:05:51,159 Speaker 3: I do, and other people as well. But we serve 98 00:05:51,200 --> 00:05:57,520 Speaker 3: a apart temp and perm employment agencies every week and 99 00:05:57,600 --> 00:06:01,000 Speaker 3: ask them what's the wage pressure, and that's been easing off. 100 00:06:01,760 --> 00:06:05,760 Speaker 3: Our analysts, which I meet with every morning, report wages 101 00:06:05,760 --> 00:06:06,760 Speaker 3: are slowing a little bit. 102 00:06:06,880 --> 00:06:09,560 Speaker 2: Yep, And so that's there. 103 00:06:09,560 --> 00:06:10,680 Speaker 3: But that's a slow moving train. 104 00:06:10,960 --> 00:06:11,159 Speaker 2: Yeah. 105 00:06:11,160 --> 00:06:14,160 Speaker 3: And in the meantime, you know oil is knocking up, 106 00:06:14,279 --> 00:06:14,680 Speaker 3: up up. 107 00:06:15,320 --> 00:06:15,520 Speaker 2: Yeah. 108 00:06:15,520 --> 00:06:17,200 Speaker 1: Well that was exactly where you. I mean, what I 109 00:06:17,240 --> 00:06:20,320 Speaker 1: wanted to ask you about commodity prices, the vibrancy of 110 00:06:20,360 --> 00:06:23,200 Speaker 1: the US consumer. I mean, given mortgage rates going higher, 111 00:06:23,200 --> 00:06:25,480 Speaker 1: I mean I know, spreads of states tight, but mortgage 112 00:06:25,520 --> 00:06:27,120 Speaker 1: rates are going higher. Tom will talk to you about 113 00:06:27,120 --> 00:06:29,280 Speaker 1: the thirty year fixed I mean, ed, you know, talk 114 00:06:29,320 --> 00:06:32,040 Speaker 1: to us about the resiliency of the US consumer and 115 00:06:32,040 --> 00:06:33,600 Speaker 1: what that means for employment here in the US. 116 00:06:35,200 --> 00:06:38,320 Speaker 3: Well, are the same thing, Yeah, exactly what drives the 117 00:06:38,440 --> 00:06:45,320 Speaker 3: US consumer. But the mortgage rate. I'm trying to figure 118 00:06:45,360 --> 00:06:48,039 Speaker 3: out what to do. And the mortgage rate backing up 119 00:06:48,760 --> 00:06:52,000 Speaker 3: is definitely going to put pressure on housing. We serve 120 00:06:52,040 --> 00:06:55,440 Speaker 3: a home builders every week. It's an excellent window almost 121 00:06:55,440 --> 00:06:58,520 Speaker 3: happening there and that's come off a little bit. And 122 00:06:58,560 --> 00:07:01,560 Speaker 3: when mortgage rates go up that weekends and so we'll 123 00:07:01,560 --> 00:07:02,719 Speaker 3: see if that impacts or not. 124 00:07:02,920 --> 00:07:07,040 Speaker 2: You have been committed to Midtown Manhattan, you're an institution. 125 00:07:07,480 --> 00:07:11,240 Speaker 2: Your thoughts on this round of commercial real estate and 126 00:07:11,280 --> 00:07:14,600 Speaker 2: tobacco that we see in New York City and nationwide. 127 00:07:14,720 --> 00:07:19,080 Speaker 3: You know, so far it's been okay every tightening cycle, 128 00:07:19,240 --> 00:07:23,040 Speaker 3: and this is my thirteenth tightening cycle. Each of the 129 00:07:23,080 --> 00:07:25,480 Speaker 3: thirteen there have been seven had recessions. 130 00:07:26,200 --> 00:07:30,520 Speaker 1: So what I mean, so, what what cycle does this 131 00:07:30,560 --> 00:07:32,320 Speaker 1: feel most like to you? Is this reminds you of 132 00:07:32,440 --> 00:07:33,680 Speaker 1: nineteen ninety nineteen? 133 00:07:34,320 --> 00:07:35,640 Speaker 3: It like this is its own beast. 134 00:07:35,720 --> 00:07:36,600 Speaker 1: It's its own beast. 135 00:07:36,400 --> 00:07:38,120 Speaker 2: It's its own post pandemic beast. 136 00:07:38,240 --> 00:07:43,280 Speaker 3: Yeah, and uh, but so far it's been resilient. I 137 00:07:43,320 --> 00:07:49,680 Speaker 3: will say that every cycle feels resilient until it stops, right, 138 00:07:49,760 --> 00:07:52,080 Speaker 3: and it's You can't look out the window and tell 139 00:07:52,120 --> 00:07:54,120 Speaker 3: how the economy is going to be doing tomorrow. You 140 00:07:54,120 --> 00:07:56,000 Speaker 3: can tell how I's doing today. 141 00:07:56,760 --> 00:07:58,640 Speaker 2: I got one time for one question. We're out of 142 00:07:58,680 --> 00:08:00,960 Speaker 2: time at timen you fly out Cooper or Tino, You 143 00:08:01,040 --> 00:08:03,560 Speaker 2: take a cup of coffee with Tim Cook? What do 144 00:08:03,600 --> 00:08:07,320 Speaker 2: you tell him about the equity spirit of America? With 145 00:08:07,360 --> 00:08:10,000 Speaker 2: all the challenges mister Cook has at Apple? What do 146 00:08:10,040 --> 00:08:13,360 Speaker 2: you tell them about the stock market? About the idea 147 00:08:13,360 --> 00:08:17,120 Speaker 2: of finding value over three years, five years, a decade 148 00:08:18,000 --> 00:08:19,160 Speaker 2: and the short term. 149 00:08:19,640 --> 00:08:22,000 Speaker 3: I think the market is now going to be under 150 00:08:22,000 --> 00:08:25,960 Speaker 3: pressure for a bit. But when you ask that question 151 00:08:26,000 --> 00:08:32,000 Speaker 3: about the longer term, the US economyst pretty good, and 152 00:08:32,040 --> 00:08:35,600 Speaker 3: you know, compared to other economies, it's really good, and 153 00:08:35,640 --> 00:08:38,520 Speaker 3: so I'd be I'd put a smiley face. 154 00:08:39,040 --> 00:08:43,839 Speaker 2: Edheman, thank you so much for coming out. I ed 155 00:08:43,920 --> 00:08:58,160 Speaker 2: Heiman has done so much for market economics. Sebastian Page 156 00:08:58,520 --> 00:09:01,160 Speaker 2: joins us now and I think it will dan off 157 00:09:01,280 --> 00:09:05,120 Speaker 2: over its fortress Lyne up at Fidelity with fifty five 158 00:09:05,240 --> 00:09:09,440 Speaker 2: percent of his fund in ten stocks. That's not the 159 00:09:09,480 --> 00:09:12,160 Speaker 2: Sebastian pageway, is it now? 160 00:09:12,440 --> 00:09:14,960 Speaker 4: It's not. And the thing about the freezer in the oven, 161 00:09:15,480 --> 00:09:20,160 Speaker 4: Tom is that investors too often look at average correlations 162 00:09:20,240 --> 00:09:22,960 Speaker 4: over time. So right now on the markets, you know, 163 00:09:23,120 --> 00:09:26,120 Speaker 4: bonds and stocks can go down together. We've learned that 164 00:09:26,160 --> 00:09:29,360 Speaker 4: in twenty two. But when investors do their strategic as 165 00:09:29,480 --> 00:09:33,160 Speaker 4: allocation studies, they just look back ten years in average 166 00:09:33,160 --> 00:09:36,280 Speaker 4: across all these different regimes. So my point is as 167 00:09:36,320 --> 00:09:38,560 Speaker 4: a statistician who said, I have my head in the 168 00:09:38,600 --> 00:09:41,480 Speaker 4: freezer and my feet in the oven, and on average, 169 00:09:41,840 --> 00:09:44,720 Speaker 4: I feel great, right, And that's kind of the mistake 170 00:09:44,800 --> 00:09:48,000 Speaker 4: we make when we use long term correlations. 171 00:09:48,040 --> 00:09:50,720 Speaker 2: But the problem Sebastians, most of our listeners and viewers 172 00:09:50,760 --> 00:09:53,000 Speaker 2: have their head and in vidiots right, and their feet 173 00:09:53,000 --> 00:09:58,160 Speaker 2: and Microsoft. We've never, honestly, folks, we've never. We just 174 00:09:58,160 --> 00:10:02,160 Speaker 2: did the solar West. Phil Karay has never seen this. 175 00:10:02,360 --> 00:10:05,280 Speaker 1: Late phel Great Sebastian. My daughter Hayden, she's on the 176 00:10:05,280 --> 00:10:08,079 Speaker 1: way to carpool. She's in traffic right now. She owns 177 00:10:08,120 --> 00:10:10,520 Speaker 1: the mag seven. But you're talking about a broadening of 178 00:10:10,520 --> 00:10:13,480 Speaker 1: equity market performance, right, the average stock I believe in 179 00:10:13,640 --> 00:10:16,000 Speaker 1: US equities is down what thirteen percent? I mean, talked 180 00:10:16,000 --> 00:10:17,320 Speaker 1: to us a little bit about this broadening. 181 00:10:17,880 --> 00:10:19,120 Speaker 2: What's gonna drive performance here? 182 00:10:19,200 --> 00:10:22,400 Speaker 4: Yeah, he can use the same analogy for that question. Right, 183 00:10:22,880 --> 00:10:27,080 Speaker 4: it's a tale of two markets. If you go back 184 00:10:27,080 --> 00:10:29,800 Speaker 4: to the end of twenty one, right before the world 185 00:10:30,160 --> 00:10:32,600 Speaker 4: fell apart, and we had five hundred and fifty basis 186 00:10:32,600 --> 00:10:36,120 Speaker 4: points of hikes and two wars, and you ask you know, 187 00:10:36,160 --> 00:10:38,680 Speaker 4: what will happen to stocks? No one really would have 188 00:10:38,720 --> 00:10:41,840 Speaker 4: predicted the S and P being up eleven percent. However, 189 00:10:42,240 --> 00:10:46,959 Speaker 4: MSCI All Country World Index right equal weighted is down 190 00:10:47,040 --> 00:10:48,720 Speaker 4: thirteen percent since then. 191 00:10:48,760 --> 00:10:51,160 Speaker 2: This is really important and Doug Cass led on this 192 00:10:51,320 --> 00:10:55,320 Speaker 2: down in Florida's Morning John Sterling retiring, and mister Cass 193 00:10:55,320 --> 00:10:58,160 Speaker 2: had a chart this morning that showed the standard reports 194 00:10:58,240 --> 00:11:01,040 Speaker 2: for eighty three right to where they were. And I 195 00:11:01,040 --> 00:11:04,200 Speaker 2: think it's early twenty three and just as mister Page said, 196 00:11:04,520 --> 00:11:07,600 Speaker 2: they're back really to where we were in twenty twenty one. 197 00:11:07,720 --> 00:11:10,040 Speaker 1: No, Tom, it's been that lack of participation in value 198 00:11:10,080 --> 00:11:11,920 Speaker 1: and the question I think that Sebastian and I both 199 00:11:11,920 --> 00:11:13,960 Speaker 1: have is what's going to drive people that you know, 200 00:11:14,040 --> 00:11:16,440 Speaker 1: reaching their pockets move out of growth and into value. 201 00:11:16,440 --> 00:11:18,360 Speaker 1: What do you think is going to be that catalyst? 202 00:11:18,360 --> 00:11:21,440 Speaker 4: Sebastian, Yeah, that's a great question, and we are playing 203 00:11:21,440 --> 00:11:25,320 Speaker 4: the broadening by overweighting value. But we're actually neutral between 204 00:11:25,400 --> 00:11:28,200 Speaker 4: large and small stocks because small stocks have been so 205 00:11:28,440 --> 00:11:31,480 Speaker 4: sensitive to higher rates and we expect rates to stay 206 00:11:31,559 --> 00:11:36,680 Speaker 4: higher than expectations. So why value, Because you know, Tom, 207 00:11:36,840 --> 00:11:39,040 Speaker 4: things can be cheap, and they can be cheap for 208 00:11:39,080 --> 00:11:41,760 Speaker 4: a long time, and you buy, and it's a trap 209 00:11:42,360 --> 00:11:45,400 Speaker 4: European stocks versus US stocks for the last ten years, 210 00:11:45,520 --> 00:11:48,439 Speaker 4: value stocks versus grow stocks. So you need to ask 211 00:11:48,559 --> 00:11:49,640 Speaker 4: what is the catalyst? 212 00:11:49,720 --> 00:11:51,440 Speaker 2: What is the catalyst for value to move? 213 00:11:51,559 --> 00:11:56,120 Speaker 4: So we look at three factors, macro, fundamentals, and sentiment, 214 00:11:56,360 --> 00:11:58,840 Speaker 4: and to me, those are starting to align. And the 215 00:11:58,920 --> 00:12:04,520 Speaker 4: macro you have rising oil prices and pressures on commodities 216 00:12:04,559 --> 00:12:09,560 Speaker 4: in general that favors value. Higher rates tend to favor value, 217 00:12:09,679 --> 00:12:11,640 Speaker 4: though the case is not as clear cut, but you 218 00:12:11,679 --> 00:12:16,680 Speaker 4: can check the macro catalyst's box on the fundamentals is 219 00:12:16,720 --> 00:12:18,640 Speaker 4: really interesting. If you look at a chart of year 220 00:12:18,640 --> 00:12:22,360 Speaker 4: over year expected earnings growth. By the end of this year, 221 00:12:22,400 --> 00:12:26,079 Speaker 4: it's expected that value stocks earnings will actually be growing 222 00:12:26,200 --> 00:12:29,160 Speaker 4: faster year over year than growth stocks. So you kind 223 00:12:29,200 --> 00:12:33,360 Speaker 4: of have a fundamental catalysts are stock analysts. I'm an 224 00:12:33,360 --> 00:12:35,480 Speaker 4: asslic cater, but I like to get input from stock 225 00:12:35,559 --> 00:12:39,040 Speaker 4: analysts from the bottom up. They're talking to industrial CEOs 226 00:12:39,280 --> 00:12:41,959 Speaker 4: and they're hearing some optimism. The am I going above 227 00:12:42,000 --> 00:12:42,800 Speaker 4: fifty right aastion. 228 00:12:43,120 --> 00:12:44,880 Speaker 1: I'm a market strategist, so I like to look at that. 229 00:12:44,920 --> 00:12:46,439 Speaker 1: I like to look at liquidity. I like to look 230 00:12:46,440 --> 00:12:50,280 Speaker 1: at sentiment on the criminals talk to us about because 231 00:12:50,320 --> 00:12:52,120 Speaker 1: I mean, I've read your note and you make a 232 00:12:52,160 --> 00:12:55,080 Speaker 1: great point. What ninety second percentile is the differential between 233 00:12:55,080 --> 00:12:56,960 Speaker 1: flows into growth of our value? Is that right? 234 00:12:57,200 --> 00:12:57,360 Speaker 2: Right? 235 00:12:57,440 --> 00:13:00,400 Speaker 4: So, Damien, that's the third catalyst. Especially you have macro 236 00:13:00,880 --> 00:13:05,160 Speaker 4: fundamental and yeah, if you look at them, we have 237 00:13:05,280 --> 00:13:09,440 Speaker 4: the relative positioning that flows into growth mutual funds versus 238 00:13:09,559 --> 00:13:14,520 Speaker 4: value mutual funds ninety second person tile on a yearly basis. 239 00:13:14,840 --> 00:13:17,640 Speaker 4: So when you look at sentiment, usually you want to 240 00:13:17,720 --> 00:13:18,720 Speaker 4: lean against the wind. 241 00:13:19,120 --> 00:13:20,920 Speaker 2: We have time for one more question. We have some 242 00:13:21,000 --> 00:13:21,640 Speaker 2: container rations. 243 00:13:22,000 --> 00:13:24,200 Speaker 1: I mean, we got to talk about container rates, right, 244 00:13:24,240 --> 00:13:28,800 Speaker 1: I mean container rates. I mean shoud dollars that rates? 245 00:13:29,080 --> 00:13:32,840 Speaker 2: Can I just read these? Tom? Come on, please contain 246 00:13:33,800 --> 00:13:35,160 Speaker 2: have another What. 247 00:13:35,120 --> 00:13:37,520 Speaker 1: Does that mean for investors? Why should be concerned about 248 00:13:37,600 --> 00:13:40,240 Speaker 1: shipping rates between New York and shang Heights of Astian. 249 00:13:40,200 --> 00:13:43,560 Speaker 4: It's part of the mosaic of higher inflation, four point 250 00:13:43,640 --> 00:13:47,720 Speaker 4: seven percent wage growth, you know, low unemployment. 251 00:13:48,200 --> 00:13:49,160 Speaker 2: I'm gonna I'm going. 252 00:13:49,120 --> 00:13:51,040 Speaker 4: To pause here and let Tom ask a question. 253 00:13:53,360 --> 00:13:56,599 Speaker 5: I think bubblet. 254 00:13:56,440 --> 00:14:01,560 Speaker 2: To the trow price folks invented analysts debate. They did 255 00:14:01,679 --> 00:14:04,760 Speaker 2: what we did. PIMCO stole it from the people. This 256 00:14:04,920 --> 00:14:08,880 Speaker 2: is you know, Macamian way back. Okay, what is the 257 00:14:09,040 --> 00:14:12,559 Speaker 2: biggest source of debate in t row price meetings right now? 258 00:14:12,960 --> 00:14:16,040 Speaker 4: So I like to say that we're aggressively neutral between 259 00:14:16,080 --> 00:14:19,600 Speaker 4: stocks and bonds. Tom, the biggest source of debate right 260 00:14:19,640 --> 00:14:23,080 Speaker 4: now In my asset allocation committee, I have bulls and 261 00:14:23,160 --> 00:14:26,960 Speaker 4: I have bears, and that's the most important asset allocation question. 262 00:14:27,640 --> 00:14:31,920 Speaker 4: The bulls are saying, look, earnings are coming back up 263 00:14:31,960 --> 00:14:36,200 Speaker 4: and rates are coming down over time, there's place a 264 00:14:36,240 --> 00:14:38,960 Speaker 4: place for the market to broaden. The bears are just 265 00:14:39,000 --> 00:14:42,840 Speaker 4: looking at deceleration. The dynamics of deceleration, the lagged defects 266 00:14:42,840 --> 00:14:46,440 Speaker 4: of higher rates, and you know all the risks in 267 00:14:46,480 --> 00:14:48,880 Speaker 4: the system from a deceleration twenty seconds. 268 00:14:48,880 --> 00:14:50,200 Speaker 2: Oiols look loaded this year. 269 00:14:51,240 --> 00:14:54,560 Speaker 4: You know, I live in Baltimore, so I'm going to be. 270 00:14:56,040 --> 00:14:56,640 Speaker 5: In Baltimore. 271 00:14:56,680 --> 00:15:01,600 Speaker 4: I'm going to be completely unbiased. I'm going to say Tom, 272 00:15:01,640 --> 00:15:04,160 Speaker 4: you know, for the book, thank you for helping the sales. 273 00:15:04,800 --> 00:15:07,200 Speaker 4: I give all the proceeds to the Tiro Foundation. But 274 00:15:07,240 --> 00:15:08,440 Speaker 4: there might be an oriol ticket. 275 00:15:08,480 --> 00:15:10,640 Speaker 2: Oh there we go. That's what we like. It'll be 276 00:15:10,640 --> 00:15:15,880 Speaker 2: better than what I get from from sembastic page from Baltimore, 277 00:15:16,000 --> 00:15:18,040 Speaker 2: Home of the Orioles. Thank you so much. He's a 278 00:15:18,080 --> 00:15:21,600 Speaker 2: trod price. Can you get mister Page to the door here. 279 00:15:26,440 --> 00:15:31,280 Speaker 2: I've been an extraordinary twenty four hours in streaming in Hollywood, 280 00:15:31,440 --> 00:15:36,400 Speaker 2: in media, and nobody really has any understanding of where 281 00:15:36,600 --> 00:15:40,840 Speaker 2: this is leading. Craig Moffatt and Michael Nathanson are definitive 282 00:15:41,000 --> 00:15:44,120 Speaker 2: in thinking about the bigger picture in the view Forward. 283 00:15:44,640 --> 00:15:48,520 Speaker 2: They recently had an extraordinary note to compare and contrast 284 00:15:49,120 --> 00:15:53,520 Speaker 2: of Walt Disney of Glendale and a firm called Comcast. 285 00:15:53,960 --> 00:15:58,479 Speaker 2: All of their work with Universal and with the NBC franchise, 286 00:15:58,560 --> 00:16:01,320 Speaker 2: and then there's Paramount in all that's going on there. 287 00:16:01,640 --> 00:16:06,720 Speaker 2: Michael Nathanson. Now on our fractured media, where are these companies, 288 00:16:06,760 --> 00:16:09,440 Speaker 2: Michael Nathanson In three years. 289 00:16:10,760 --> 00:16:14,120 Speaker 6: More than Tom, the companies will have all very different 290 00:16:14,960 --> 00:16:20,400 Speaker 6: different outcomes. Right, So Disney and Comcast have enough scale diversification, 291 00:16:21,720 --> 00:16:24,840 Speaker 6: they will be fine because of their know for Disney 292 00:16:24,840 --> 00:16:29,880 Speaker 6: parks and Comcast Cable brought in the rest of them. 293 00:16:30,240 --> 00:16:35,000 Speaker 6: Consolidation has to happen. You need to take out capacity, 294 00:16:35,160 --> 00:16:38,120 Speaker 6: you need to reduce costs. So we're waiting to see 295 00:16:38,120 --> 00:16:46,360 Speaker 6: how Paramount, Warners, Fox, AMC networks all come together or 296 00:16:46,400 --> 00:16:50,520 Speaker 6: don't write. So obviously it needs to be consolidation. We 297 00:16:50,560 --> 00:16:53,200 Speaker 6: don't know how it gets done because the personality is 298 00:16:53,240 --> 00:16:54,080 Speaker 6: in place here. 299 00:16:54,640 --> 00:16:56,560 Speaker 5: But this can't it can't last, right. 300 00:16:56,600 --> 00:16:56,760 Speaker 4: You know. 301 00:16:56,800 --> 00:16:59,360 Speaker 2: I look at just overnight Daniel Thomas writing it up 302 00:16:59,360 --> 00:17:02,520 Speaker 2: in the FT. I'm Mark Thompson, who saved the New 303 00:17:02,600 --> 00:17:05,800 Speaker 2: York Times, he invented the digital New York Times, and 304 00:17:05,880 --> 00:17:08,200 Speaker 2: I read the article very carefully, Michael, and I guess 305 00:17:08,240 --> 00:17:12,160 Speaker 2: there's a plan there. But Mark Thompson says, basically, we're 306 00:17:12,240 --> 00:17:15,720 Speaker 2: flying blind. And the only thing he circles back to 307 00:17:15,880 --> 00:17:18,840 Speaker 2: is what we're going to, which is YouTube? Is it 308 00:17:18,920 --> 00:17:22,120 Speaker 2: a YouTube world in five years, whether it's Mark Thompson 309 00:17:22,520 --> 00:17:25,679 Speaker 2: or Tom Keene, I mean, is that what the audience 310 00:17:26,119 --> 00:17:31,360 Speaker 2: wants or is there something the audience wants from Disney? 311 00:17:31,560 --> 00:17:32,680 Speaker 5: Thomas fascinating. 312 00:17:34,200 --> 00:17:37,239 Speaker 6: A lot of your listeners may not know this, but 313 00:17:37,359 --> 00:17:42,400 Speaker 6: YouTube has more time spent on connected TVs than Netflix. 314 00:17:42,960 --> 00:17:45,080 Speaker 6: So you maybe you know this because you're now Bloomberg 315 00:17:45,160 --> 00:17:47,760 Speaker 6: is on YouTube, But YouTube on the television is bigger 316 00:17:47,760 --> 00:17:51,680 Speaker 6: than Netflix. So YouTube has a place in that world, 317 00:17:51,880 --> 00:17:55,280 Speaker 6: as does Netflix, as does Disney. But yes, more and 318 00:17:55,320 --> 00:17:58,400 Speaker 6: more conscious moving to YouTube and challenges people who get 319 00:17:58,400 --> 00:18:02,000 Speaker 6: paid for production, paid for content. How do you win 320 00:18:02,119 --> 00:18:06,119 Speaker 6: in a world or YouTube is the dominant provider of distribution. 321 00:18:06,240 --> 00:18:08,040 Speaker 5: It's a really hard model for everyone else. 322 00:18:08,440 --> 00:18:11,119 Speaker 1: Michael tom loves to talk about Hollywood. He loves to 323 00:18:11,119 --> 00:18:13,520 Speaker 1: talk about streaming. Those are the glamour industries. I like 324 00:18:13,560 --> 00:18:16,000 Speaker 1: to talk about the fifty billion dollar theme park industry. 325 00:18:16,040 --> 00:18:19,600 Speaker 1: It's boring. It's utterly dominated by Disney. Talk to me 326 00:18:19,680 --> 00:18:21,879 Speaker 1: about where I should be taking my kids during the holiday, 327 00:18:21,880 --> 00:18:24,439 Speaker 1: should be going to Universal Disney and what part of 328 00:18:24,480 --> 00:18:27,800 Speaker 1: the equation is the theme part, because I imagine it's getting 329 00:18:27,840 --> 00:18:29,159 Speaker 1: quite large. 330 00:18:29,400 --> 00:18:30,960 Speaker 5: Okay, good question. 331 00:18:32,080 --> 00:18:35,800 Speaker 6: Before the pandemic, before streaming Wars, parks for half of 332 00:18:35,840 --> 00:18:36,760 Speaker 6: Disney's profits. 333 00:18:37,480 --> 00:18:41,439 Speaker 5: Now it's three quarters, and Disney is going to put an. 334 00:18:41,320 --> 00:18:45,120 Speaker 6: Extra sixty billion dollars of capital to build out more 335 00:18:45,160 --> 00:18:51,320 Speaker 6: and more attractions, especially overseas. But out of the back 336 00:18:51,480 --> 00:18:54,760 Speaker 6: in the second place, here comes Universal, owned by Comcast, 337 00:18:55,240 --> 00:18:59,680 Speaker 6: and next year they have a massive park epic and 338 00:18:59,720 --> 00:19:02,439 Speaker 6: it's we will have five different gates, that's what we 339 00:19:02,480 --> 00:19:06,199 Speaker 6: call them, five different gates. I know about Harry Potter installation. 340 00:19:07,600 --> 00:19:10,440 Speaker 6: You're going to have how to Change Dragons. You have Nintendo, 341 00:19:10,440 --> 00:19:13,080 Speaker 6: which would be a big attraction. So they're trying to 342 00:19:13,119 --> 00:19:16,440 Speaker 6: close the gap with Disney and somewhere middle. About a 343 00:19:16,520 --> 00:19:18,880 Speaker 6: year from now, this will be all the talk. Tom 344 00:19:18,920 --> 00:19:21,439 Speaker 6: will have me on every every day talking about the 345 00:19:21,480 --> 00:19:24,960 Speaker 6: impending theme park Wars because up to this point it's 346 00:19:24,960 --> 00:19:25,920 Speaker 6: been Disney's world. 347 00:19:26,400 --> 00:19:28,879 Speaker 5: They've done a great job, but we're really. 348 00:19:28,760 --> 00:19:32,160 Speaker 6: Interested to see what happens next year when Comcast gets 349 00:19:32,160 --> 00:19:34,359 Speaker 6: in the game with a much bigger park and a 350 00:19:34,440 --> 00:19:35,719 Speaker 6: challenge to Disney in Orlando. 351 00:19:35,840 --> 00:19:38,280 Speaker 1: Tom, did you hear that even with ESPN and ABC. 352 00:19:38,520 --> 00:19:42,560 Speaker 1: I mean, I mean theme parks are seventy three percent 353 00:19:42,720 --> 00:19:44,360 Speaker 1: of Disney's ebit then you. 354 00:19:44,359 --> 00:19:46,159 Speaker 2: And Swingey are on the same page, and this and 355 00:19:46,240 --> 00:19:47,359 Speaker 2: Nathan'son's lead on it. 356 00:19:47,520 --> 00:19:49,280 Speaker 1: I mean I like Fast Ride. I don't know if 357 00:19:49,280 --> 00:19:49,879 Speaker 1: I like them. 358 00:19:50,080 --> 00:19:52,400 Speaker 2: I'm watching reruns of Frozen and you guys are out 359 00:19:52,400 --> 00:19:54,800 Speaker 2: spending five hundred dollars a day at a theme park. 360 00:19:56,240 --> 00:19:57,840 Speaker 1: Michael, where should we put our money here? I mean, 361 00:19:57,880 --> 00:20:00,000 Speaker 1: what do we like better? If we're an equity investm 362 00:20:00,200 --> 00:20:01,760 Speaker 1: I mean, is it Disney is a Comcast? 363 00:20:01,880 --> 00:20:02,040 Speaker 2: Is it? 364 00:20:02,119 --> 00:20:02,919 Speaker 1: Is it another player? 365 00:20:03,400 --> 00:20:04,080 Speaker 2: Yeah? 366 00:20:04,200 --> 00:20:08,120 Speaker 6: Okay, so Craig Moffatt covers Comcast. We have a buying Comcast, 367 00:20:08,320 --> 00:20:11,360 Speaker 6: and I covered Disney, and we upgraded Disney when Bob 368 00:20:11,400 --> 00:20:14,120 Speaker 6: Eyer came back, and it took a while, but it's 369 00:20:14,400 --> 00:20:17,639 Speaker 6: it's been an okay call, not great call. Our feeling is, 370 00:20:17,680 --> 00:20:20,720 Speaker 6: you know, Disney has because of the streaming investments, they 371 00:20:20,720 --> 00:20:25,080 Speaker 6: have a lot to catch up on profitability. Their businesses 372 00:20:25,119 --> 00:20:28,200 Speaker 6: are still losing money and streaming Netflix has twenty five 373 00:20:28,200 --> 00:20:31,040 Speaker 6: percent margins. So our view is that Disney has a 374 00:20:31,080 --> 00:20:34,439 Speaker 6: way to go on Netflix profitability. We like Comcasts And 375 00:20:34,440 --> 00:20:36,840 Speaker 6: then Tom will ask me we do like Meta and 376 00:20:36,920 --> 00:20:40,119 Speaker 6: alphabet even here, those have been We've been lucky to 377 00:20:40,119 --> 00:20:43,440 Speaker 6: expand our coverage to cover some of the Magnificent seven. 378 00:20:43,480 --> 00:20:46,040 Speaker 5: And those two names are great for us. I continue 379 00:20:46,040 --> 00:20:47,080 Speaker 5: to going there when I come in. 380 00:20:46,920 --> 00:20:49,199 Speaker 2: In a morning. Folks and Sweeney's all over this. I mean, 381 00:20:49,240 --> 00:20:52,080 Speaker 2: I'm a amateur out here. Nathanson, I mean, Nathanson knows 382 00:20:52,119 --> 00:20:53,240 Speaker 2: that it's a Yankees fan. 383 00:20:53,040 --> 00:20:54,520 Speaker 1: I lives up in scarsdaln. 384 00:20:54,600 --> 00:20:56,800 Speaker 2: But but I look, Michael, I do a two standard 385 00:20:56,880 --> 00:21:02,240 Speaker 2: deviation technical trend on Warner Brothers to Discovery, and I'm sorry. 386 00:21:02,240 --> 00:21:05,639 Speaker 2: As a metaphor for the industry, there seem to be 387 00:21:05,720 --> 00:21:09,760 Speaker 2: more sellers than buyers. When does a bid slim in 388 00:21:10,520 --> 00:21:14,760 Speaker 2: on WBD or whatever. The detritus is a paramount. When 389 00:21:14,800 --> 00:21:17,320 Speaker 2: does the bid come into your world? 390 00:21:17,920 --> 00:21:20,520 Speaker 6: Yeah, that's a great question. So Robert Fishman or our 391 00:21:20,560 --> 00:21:21,960 Speaker 6: team carvers those names. 392 00:21:22,640 --> 00:21:22,920 Speaker 5: Tom. 393 00:21:23,000 --> 00:21:27,159 Speaker 6: The challenge is what is the value of their linear 394 00:21:27,200 --> 00:21:27,920 Speaker 6: network businesses? 395 00:21:28,000 --> 00:21:30,160 Speaker 5: Right? So if you are a private that would be bitter. 396 00:21:31,040 --> 00:21:33,320 Speaker 6: What's the minimum amount of money you want to spend 397 00:21:33,320 --> 00:21:34,160 Speaker 6: on linear networks? 398 00:21:34,280 --> 00:21:35,480 Speaker 5: They will not be burns? 399 00:21:35,640 --> 00:21:35,840 Speaker 2: Right? 400 00:21:36,119 --> 00:21:39,280 Speaker 6: And every year, because of cord cutting and advertising pressures, 401 00:21:39,880 --> 00:21:43,080 Speaker 6: linear propits go down, so until you hit that floor, 402 00:21:43,119 --> 00:21:46,280 Speaker 6: it could be three times ebatat Tom, which is like wow, extortally, 403 00:21:46,520 --> 00:21:49,639 Speaker 6: that's a tiny, tiny number. Given these guys were fifteen 404 00:21:49,640 --> 00:21:51,000 Speaker 6: times ebadad decade ago. 405 00:21:51,400 --> 00:21:52,760 Speaker 5: Could be a three times Ebadah. 406 00:21:52,760 --> 00:21:55,800 Speaker 6: You feel some comfort, but you know, the revision trends 407 00:21:55,840 --> 00:21:59,000 Speaker 6: are so negative and linear cable networks because of cord cutting, 408 00:21:59,440 --> 00:22:01,560 Speaker 6: that it's hard for smart money to say, I want 409 00:22:01,600 --> 00:22:02,680 Speaker 6: to make a stand here. 410 00:22:03,600 --> 00:22:05,880 Speaker 5: It's a falling knife. Every year has been a falling knife. 411 00:22:05,960 --> 00:22:09,080 Speaker 6: So until you see a bottom on evaluation, which could 412 00:22:09,080 --> 00:22:09,840 Speaker 6: be some time. 413 00:22:09,720 --> 00:22:13,120 Speaker 2: Away from Netflix is doing and restructuring shock of shocks. 414 00:22:13,200 --> 00:22:16,600 Speaker 2: They want to listen to the customer. Michael Nathanson spent 415 00:22:17,080 --> 00:22:19,960 Speaker 2: umpteen years. Michael Nathanson has been doing this so long. 416 00:22:20,000 --> 00:22:21,440 Speaker 2: It was back when the Yankees won. 417 00:22:22,040 --> 00:22:25,840 Speaker 5: Michael behind me? 418 00:22:26,240 --> 00:22:30,440 Speaker 2: How original? How original, Michael to listen to the customer. 419 00:22:30,680 --> 00:22:33,160 Speaker 2: Who's listening to the customer best? 420 00:22:35,080 --> 00:22:39,440 Speaker 6: Well, it's interesting to say that I think Netflix has 421 00:22:39,840 --> 00:22:44,920 Speaker 6: the technology to surface shows that we may not think about, 422 00:22:44,960 --> 00:22:48,520 Speaker 6: like Suits or Young Sheldon, that people then start watching Tom. 423 00:22:48,640 --> 00:22:50,439 Speaker 6: And you know, we've debated this for many years. What 424 00:22:50,600 --> 00:22:53,560 Speaker 6: is king content? And I think when Netflix has the 425 00:22:53,600 --> 00:22:57,600 Speaker 6: platform is king and I think they're listening to the customer, 426 00:22:57,640 --> 00:23:00,240 Speaker 6: but in different ways, Tom Right, they're not. You know, 427 00:23:00,280 --> 00:23:02,240 Speaker 6: they're not doing the old fashioned Hey. You know, I 428 00:23:02,240 --> 00:23:03,919 Speaker 6: saw this person on Broadway and I want to put 429 00:23:03,960 --> 00:23:07,480 Speaker 6: them in a TV show. Their algorithm and their data 430 00:23:07,680 --> 00:23:10,000 Speaker 6: is surfacing what you want to watch, and I think 431 00:23:10,040 --> 00:23:12,640 Speaker 6: that's been the biggest change here, whereas the old media 432 00:23:12,640 --> 00:23:15,800 Speaker 6: company still listen to the customer build fashion away. But 433 00:23:16,000 --> 00:23:20,119 Speaker 6: Netflix and YouTube, to your question, just have better technology 434 00:23:20,119 --> 00:23:22,359 Speaker 6: skills and that is making their content stickier. 435 00:23:22,400 --> 00:23:24,119 Speaker 1: Michael, I haven't been to either, and I have to 436 00:23:24,200 --> 00:23:25,960 Speaker 1: just go back to it, you know, the Wizarding World 437 00:23:26,000 --> 00:23:28,399 Speaker 1: of Harry Potter, and then you hear about this Nintendo 438 00:23:30,119 --> 00:23:33,240 Speaker 1: you have to hit the blue button, Tom. But the parks, 439 00:23:33,280 --> 00:23:36,000 Speaker 1: I mean, I'm just curious, you know, Island of Adventure. 440 00:23:36,080 --> 00:23:38,320 Speaker 1: You know, do you visit these places? I mean, what works? 441 00:23:38,359 --> 00:23:40,119 Speaker 1: What's different than the days where I used to go 442 00:23:40,160 --> 00:23:42,040 Speaker 1: to Disney World. I used to go to Epcot, you know, 443 00:23:42,119 --> 00:23:44,360 Speaker 1: I mean, maybe i'd go to MGM. I mean, what's 444 00:23:44,400 --> 00:23:45,639 Speaker 1: different about these new parks? 445 00:23:47,600 --> 00:23:49,119 Speaker 5: Okay, so I do get it. 446 00:23:49,160 --> 00:23:53,560 Speaker 6: I go to Disney very often, the because the covery Disney, Right, 447 00:23:53,800 --> 00:23:55,520 Speaker 6: the parks have gone. 448 00:23:56,440 --> 00:23:57,560 Speaker 5: This is the biggest channel to have. 449 00:23:57,800 --> 00:24:02,080 Speaker 6: Right when gaming has become so tech eligibly advanced and 450 00:24:02,680 --> 00:24:06,080 Speaker 6: three D movies have become so good, you have to 451 00:24:06,119 --> 00:24:11,360 Speaker 6: bring the customer in a different way. They've become much 452 00:24:11,400 --> 00:24:14,680 Speaker 6: more immersive, right, So they've become these lands upon themselves. 453 00:24:14,760 --> 00:24:14,879 Speaker 3: Right. 454 00:24:14,920 --> 00:24:17,440 Speaker 5: So no longer is a theme park with a restaurant 455 00:24:17,760 --> 00:24:20,600 Speaker 5: and a bar. You've moved into a world. 456 00:24:20,720 --> 00:24:20,880 Speaker 2: Right. 457 00:24:20,920 --> 00:24:23,800 Speaker 6: So if you head into the Star Wars experience, they're 458 00:24:23,800 --> 00:24:25,679 Speaker 6: trying to make you feel like you're in Star Wars. 459 00:24:25,680 --> 00:24:28,399 Speaker 6: And same with Harry Potter. So they're just making this 460 00:24:28,520 --> 00:24:32,199 Speaker 6: immersive universe experience, and that is that's the biggest challenge, 461 00:24:32,240 --> 00:24:35,200 Speaker 6: is to take you away for a day from the world. 462 00:24:35,400 --> 00:24:38,280 Speaker 2: You know, I just want to go out to Anaheim 463 00:24:38,280 --> 00:24:40,480 Speaker 2: and sit in the teacups with the young cherubs and 464 00:24:40,560 --> 00:24:43,320 Speaker 2: try to remember this. Michael Nathan's and I got to 465 00:24:43,359 --> 00:24:45,480 Speaker 2: make some buy holds sell money here. What's your single 466 00:24:45,480 --> 00:24:46,480 Speaker 2: best buy right now? 467 00:24:47,640 --> 00:24:49,280 Speaker 6: Well, it's funny when the year start of time, we 468 00:24:49,280 --> 00:24:51,680 Speaker 6: said Roku short and that's gone down forty percent, So 469 00:24:51,800 --> 00:24:56,440 Speaker 6: not Roku anymore. We you know, we've been saying Disney 470 00:24:56,440 --> 00:24:59,960 Speaker 6: here on the back of you know, the Eiger wind 471 00:25:00,119 --> 00:25:03,480 Speaker 6: versus Pelts, and we used to think the profitability opportunity 472 00:25:03,480 --> 00:25:06,240 Speaker 6: in streaming is pretty good. And the market feels heavy 473 00:25:06,240 --> 00:25:08,480 Speaker 6: to me. I don't know how you all feel. You know, 474 00:25:08,520 --> 00:25:13,119 Speaker 6: we've been pushing meta and alphabet, but it just feels like, 475 00:25:13,200 --> 00:25:15,560 Speaker 6: you know, that's had their time, and I think we're 476 00:25:15,560 --> 00:25:16,520 Speaker 6: going to look back at other das. 477 00:25:16,600 --> 00:25:19,160 Speaker 2: So what's the next step for Facebook? What's the next 478 00:25:19,280 --> 00:25:22,480 Speaker 2: I mean, I'm looking at growth fun portfolios that have eleven, twelve, 479 00:25:22,600 --> 00:25:25,880 Speaker 2: thirteen percent in meta. What's the next step for mister 480 00:25:25,960 --> 00:25:27,280 Speaker 2: Zuckerberg and Facebook? 481 00:25:28,400 --> 00:25:30,439 Speaker 6: The next step is is more of the same time, Right, 482 00:25:30,480 --> 00:25:33,639 Speaker 6: So they're using technology again your question about listening to 483 00:25:33,680 --> 00:25:38,040 Speaker 6: the customer. They're using AI, there's that word to deliver more, 484 00:25:38,720 --> 00:25:41,160 Speaker 6: more and more engaging experiences to you. And they're using 485 00:25:41,280 --> 00:25:44,000 Speaker 6: AI to help advertisers target better. 486 00:25:44,080 --> 00:25:44,199 Speaker 2: Right. 487 00:25:44,240 --> 00:25:46,080 Speaker 5: So it's just more of the same. 488 00:25:46,840 --> 00:25:50,080 Speaker 6: But you had an extraordinary opportunity where you had costs 489 00:25:50,160 --> 00:25:53,480 Speaker 6: coming out quickly and then acceleration of revenues. It was 490 00:25:53,520 --> 00:25:57,560 Speaker 6: amazing margin expansion last year. It's going to be harder 491 00:25:57,600 --> 00:26:00,400 Speaker 6: to see the same expansion in twenty four so we'd 492 00:26:00,480 --> 00:26:02,800 Speaker 6: like it, but it was a layup last year because 493 00:26:02,800 --> 00:26:05,360 Speaker 6: you're at cost cutting and you had acceleration on top line. 494 00:26:05,760 --> 00:26:07,440 Speaker 6: It's as good as it gets, and I think that's 495 00:26:07,480 --> 00:26:10,560 Speaker 6: the challenge is we think it's a flying stocks own 496 00:26:10,680 --> 00:26:14,120 Speaker 6: and the outlook is bright, but after last year's it's 497 00:26:14,200 --> 00:26:17,000 Speaker 6: hard to see the love of that name that you 498 00:26:17,040 --> 00:26:18,000 Speaker 6: know from where we are. 499 00:26:17,840 --> 00:26:21,200 Speaker 1: Now, Michael, I mean, look, the last question I have really, 500 00:26:21,240 --> 00:26:23,600 Speaker 1: I mean it has to do with sports. It has 501 00:26:23,640 --> 00:26:26,040 Speaker 1: to do with ESPN. The NBA rights are coming up. 502 00:26:26,080 --> 00:26:28,360 Speaker 1: I mean, how involved are you and where we are 503 00:26:28,400 --> 00:26:30,840 Speaker 1: in that process. I hear it's still behind closed doors, 504 00:26:30,840 --> 00:26:32,600 Speaker 1: but I mean you've got to be looking at that 505 00:26:32,680 --> 00:26:35,280 Speaker 1: and thinking what comes next for Disney for ESPN. 506 00:26:36,320 --> 00:26:40,040 Speaker 6: Yeah, we're highly involved in thinking about that. So we're 507 00:26:40,080 --> 00:26:44,040 Speaker 6: assuming that the NBA stays on ESPN and stays on 508 00:26:44,600 --> 00:26:46,280 Speaker 6: Turner second cable home. 509 00:26:46,440 --> 00:26:48,120 Speaker 5: Interesting, the NBA is going to look. 510 00:26:48,000 --> 00:26:51,040 Speaker 6: To find a home in streaming land. Is it Amazon? 511 00:26:51,119 --> 00:26:55,000 Speaker 6: Is at Netflix? The NBA is very focused on also globalization. 512 00:26:55,240 --> 00:26:57,520 Speaker 6: They have I think a third of their all stars 513 00:26:58,080 --> 00:27:00,640 Speaker 6: are from non US countries, so they have a really 514 00:27:00,680 --> 00:27:04,560 Speaker 6: strong international story. So the question is when Disney signs 515 00:27:04,600 --> 00:27:06,639 Speaker 6: the NBA, and he spent signs it. 516 00:27:06,680 --> 00:27:08,760 Speaker 5: What is left for them to not sign? 517 00:27:08,880 --> 00:27:11,960 Speaker 6: Right, they have a UFC deal, They have the ability 518 00:27:12,400 --> 00:27:15,719 Speaker 6: to maybe not stick with baseball. So we're really interested 519 00:27:15,720 --> 00:27:19,439 Speaker 6: in what happens after NBA because ESPN can't have everything. 520 00:27:19,480 --> 00:27:21,920 Speaker 6: Something has to be thrown over. Right, that's the next 521 00:27:21,920 --> 00:27:24,600 Speaker 6: story for us, Right, And can I say the New 522 00:27:24,640 --> 00:27:26,280 Speaker 6: York Rangers, this is our year. 523 00:27:26,440 --> 00:27:29,439 Speaker 5: Let's hope and let's pray because we deserve it. 524 00:27:29,440 --> 00:27:31,720 Speaker 2: This your car back? I mean, this is great. Michael 525 00:27:31,800 --> 00:27:34,679 Speaker 2: Nathanson in the Blue ll Bean vest just like Damian 526 00:27:34,800 --> 00:27:38,399 Speaker 2: says in the Blue ll Bean best Michael Nathanson there 527 00:27:38,880 --> 00:27:52,400 Speaker 2: with Disney, I think is a single best buy day. 528 00:27:52,440 --> 00:27:54,840 Speaker 2: I look at the front pages at Lisa Mateo hour 529 00:27:54,960 --> 00:27:57,600 Speaker 2: at LISTA. My people briefed me on the newspapers today. 530 00:27:58,240 --> 00:27:58,760 Speaker 2: What do you got? 531 00:27:59,320 --> 00:27:59,720 Speaker 7: All right? 532 00:28:00,080 --> 00:28:02,880 Speaker 8: Citadel's Ken Griffin. He wants to bring this massive New 533 00:28:02,960 --> 00:28:05,560 Speaker 8: York City skyscraper. The city is hoping it's going to 534 00:28:05,560 --> 00:28:08,520 Speaker 8: bring more workers back to the park at three fifty 535 00:28:08,560 --> 00:28:12,120 Speaker 8: Park Avenue. Very good, very good, You've done your story. 536 00:28:12,520 --> 00:28:16,760 Speaker 8: Sixty two stories going to be completed in twenty thirty two. Supposedly, 537 00:28:17,000 --> 00:28:18,920 Speaker 8: it's going to have this public concourse. But the thing 538 00:28:19,000 --> 00:28:22,440 Speaker 8: is a draw. It can house over six thousand jobs. 539 00:28:22,800 --> 00:28:25,560 Speaker 8: The question is, you know, will people come back. They're 540 00:28:25,600 --> 00:28:27,880 Speaker 8: hoping that it will, and that it will also help 541 00:28:27,920 --> 00:28:30,240 Speaker 8: revitalize the neighborhood because a lot of the businesses shut 542 00:28:30,280 --> 00:28:31,080 Speaker 8: down in the area. 543 00:28:31,119 --> 00:28:33,480 Speaker 2: I have an issue here in that does it give 544 00:28:33,560 --> 00:28:37,320 Speaker 2: us new jobs or does it just pull Damian jobs 545 00:28:37,359 --> 00:28:42,280 Speaker 2: from being C class properties over to one Vanderbilt or 546 00:28:42,320 --> 00:28:45,880 Speaker 2: the Griffin Tower, I mean the Diamond towers all JP Morgan. 547 00:28:45,960 --> 00:28:46,960 Speaker 2: But you get the picture. 548 00:28:47,000 --> 00:28:48,960 Speaker 1: Well, this is not the building that's right next to 549 00:28:48,960 --> 00:28:51,920 Speaker 1: Saint Pathrick's Cathedral. Is it where they purchased the air rights? 550 00:28:52,120 --> 00:28:52,239 Speaker 6: Yes? 551 00:28:52,920 --> 00:28:55,280 Speaker 1: Is it okay? See then I'm a little against this 552 00:28:55,360 --> 00:28:57,600 Speaker 1: because you know Saint Patty's Cathedral. I don't need shade 553 00:28:57,640 --> 00:28:59,680 Speaker 1: on Saint Patty's. I mean, you know it's for me. 554 00:28:59,680 --> 00:29:03,120 Speaker 8: That's how they're getting a big chunk of money. 555 00:29:04,560 --> 00:29:07,920 Speaker 7: Jobs are good, we should explain to our worldwide audience, 556 00:29:07,960 --> 00:29:10,760 Speaker 7: and in New York when you build a tower, there's 557 00:29:10,840 --> 00:29:16,200 Speaker 7: a thing called air rights where philanthropic and religious institutions 558 00:29:16,200 --> 00:29:21,360 Speaker 7: that own those buildings get substantial these as we build our. 559 00:29:21,320 --> 00:29:22,080 Speaker 1: One hundred and fifty. 560 00:29:23,160 --> 00:29:25,920 Speaker 8: I was just going to say, yeah, I'm. 561 00:29:25,800 --> 00:29:28,280 Speaker 2: Hoping that bill wants air rights over the House. 562 00:29:29,200 --> 00:29:32,280 Speaker 8: We'll see how that words something build something next. Okay, 563 00:29:32,880 --> 00:29:34,880 Speaker 8: I didn't realize. I mean, you would probably know this 564 00:29:35,000 --> 00:29:38,240 Speaker 8: better than I. In China, residents who are in steep debt, 565 00:29:38,240 --> 00:29:41,360 Speaker 8: they're getting blocked from making certain purchases. So this is 566 00:29:41,400 --> 00:29:43,800 Speaker 8: from the Wall Street Journal. They're saying that in Beijing 567 00:29:43,840 --> 00:29:47,760 Speaker 8: they're seizing their salaries, restricting them from getting government jobs. 568 00:29:47,800 --> 00:29:49,920 Speaker 8: This is if they're in debt, they're not paying their bills. 569 00:29:49,920 --> 00:29:53,760 Speaker 8: They're blocking them from access to high speed trains, air travel, 570 00:29:54,280 --> 00:29:58,680 Speaker 8: a lot of them forbidden to access those expensive insurance policies. 571 00:29:58,760 --> 00:30:04,000 Speaker 8: They're told they aren't allowed to go on vacation and 572 00:30:04,080 --> 00:30:06,480 Speaker 8: if they do, they can be arrested too. They can 573 00:30:06,480 --> 00:30:09,840 Speaker 8: be detained. So I didn't I didn't realize about. 574 00:30:09,640 --> 00:30:14,080 Speaker 2: This passion discussion with Nora Roubini about this once about 575 00:30:14,240 --> 00:30:17,920 Speaker 2: old world versus New world workout of bad debt. And 576 00:30:17,960 --> 00:30:21,200 Speaker 2: the answer is America's unique, Nor. 577 00:30:21,320 --> 00:30:22,479 Speaker 1: Was the dollar's unique. 578 00:30:22,600 --> 00:30:26,160 Speaker 2: That's what makes it unique. US we clear markets. There's 579 00:30:26,160 --> 00:30:28,560 Speaker 2: an economist, Friedrich Hayek, that was pretty good at this 580 00:30:28,720 --> 00:30:30,720 Speaker 2: but the idea is if you can't clear a market 581 00:30:31,160 --> 00:30:32,600 Speaker 2: and off the pandemic. 582 00:30:33,240 --> 00:30:35,200 Speaker 1: Property writes. I mean that's really what we talk about 583 00:30:35,240 --> 00:30:37,920 Speaker 1: in China, unfortunately, is just not getting investor as much 584 00:30:37,920 --> 00:30:38,840 Speaker 1: confidence that they are. 585 00:30:38,760 --> 00:30:41,520 Speaker 2: They clear in the market now they be on the. 586 00:30:41,480 --> 00:30:43,680 Speaker 1: Pine, not yet, not quite yet, not at all. 587 00:30:44,000 --> 00:30:46,400 Speaker 8: And I didn't realize unlike the US, China doesn't allow 588 00:30:46,440 --> 00:30:48,120 Speaker 8: most people to declare bankruptcy. 589 00:30:48,320 --> 00:30:52,360 Speaker 2: So that's that's that's the American What do you got next? 590 00:30:52,520 --> 00:30:57,040 Speaker 8: Okay, Washington Post. More women are getting a boosting prize 591 00:30:57,040 --> 00:30:59,840 Speaker 8: money at the first major of the year women's golf. 592 00:30:59,880 --> 00:31:02,120 Speaker 8: So women are getting some more money this weekend Chevron 593 00:31:02,200 --> 00:31:05,440 Speaker 8: Championship it takes place. They're increasing the total purse to 594 00:31:05,600 --> 00:31:08,239 Speaker 8: seven point nine million. That's up from five point two 595 00:31:08,320 --> 00:31:10,880 Speaker 8: million last year. So we're getting a little boost this week. 596 00:31:11,000 --> 00:31:13,320 Speaker 8: Chevron winner is going to take on one point two million. 597 00:31:13,600 --> 00:31:17,640 Speaker 8: Last year, the winner took home seven hundred. 598 00:31:17,840 --> 00:31:20,160 Speaker 1: You know, Vu I forget her. I don't remember her 599 00:31:20,160 --> 00:31:22,640 Speaker 1: full name, Butyah know, they've got some really talented players 600 00:31:22,680 --> 00:31:25,920 Speaker 1: in you know, in the women's and again the focus 601 00:31:25,960 --> 00:31:27,080 Speaker 1: is always going to be in the men's I mean 602 00:31:27,120 --> 00:31:28,240 Speaker 1: that's where all the highlights, but. 603 00:31:28,240 --> 00:31:29,920 Speaker 2: I remember Nancy Lopez getting it. 604 00:31:30,080 --> 00:31:32,280 Speaker 1: I mean, there's no Anika Sorenstam. And just to be 605 00:31:32,280 --> 00:31:34,080 Speaker 1: completely honest with you, but I mean there are plenty 606 00:31:34,120 --> 00:31:36,160 Speaker 1: of up and coming players, some really great players, you know. 607 00:31:36,200 --> 00:31:37,280 Speaker 1: I mean, so it's fun to watch. 608 00:31:37,280 --> 00:31:38,800 Speaker 2: Okay, The Masters was a good bunce. 609 00:31:38,920 --> 00:31:41,160 Speaker 1: Masters was fun. Yeah, But I mean, I mean, let 610 00:31:41,240 --> 00:31:42,840 Speaker 1: me tell you some of the conditions there. I mean, 611 00:31:42,880 --> 00:31:44,480 Speaker 1: we're unbelievable. Day two is tough. 612 00:31:45,480 --> 00:31:47,640 Speaker 2: How's your game? How's your game starting to spring on you? 613 00:31:49,640 --> 00:31:52,400 Speaker 1: If if he I'm working on my trying a new 614 00:31:52,480 --> 00:31:55,400 Speaker 1: three hours, eight hours, a new grip, on new grip. 615 00:31:56,240 --> 00:31:58,560 Speaker 1: The puttings there is going to be there this year. 616 00:31:58,760 --> 00:31:59,960 Speaker 2: What's his name? 617 00:32:00,040 --> 00:32:00,200 Speaker 4: Even? 618 00:32:00,240 --> 00:32:02,200 Speaker 2: Second or third? Using the bigger, thicker grip. 619 00:32:02,760 --> 00:32:05,560 Speaker 1: I like a bigger I do like a bigger quicker grip. 620 00:32:06,000 --> 00:32:07,240 Speaker 1: Thanks for thanks for. 621 00:32:07,160 --> 00:32:09,520 Speaker 2: That, Okay, I don't you know what do I know? 622 00:32:10,200 --> 00:32:11,760 Speaker 1: It's okay, bigger and thicker. 623 00:32:12,600 --> 00:32:14,320 Speaker 2: Oh I know. I sit in a bar with the over age. 624 00:32:14,400 --> 00:32:15,800 Speaker 2: I sit in a bar of the drink in my hand, 625 00:32:15,840 --> 00:32:18,880 Speaker 2: and I just go tidalist, like, oh my god, Lisa. 626 00:32:19,000 --> 00:32:22,560 Speaker 8: Next, I'm not getting the golf either. Okay, this is 627 00:32:22,560 --> 00:32:23,120 Speaker 8: the last one. 628 00:32:23,160 --> 00:32:23,440 Speaker 7: Okay. 629 00:32:23,520 --> 00:32:26,440 Speaker 8: Are you familiar with axe body spray? Of course the 630 00:32:26,480 --> 00:32:29,720 Speaker 8: men use it, right, It's to help attract the ladies. Okay. 631 00:32:29,880 --> 00:32:32,200 Speaker 8: It's a nice smelling body spray. 632 00:32:32,320 --> 00:32:36,440 Speaker 2: Olive oil, kind of olive oil. Okay. 633 00:32:36,480 --> 00:32:38,360 Speaker 1: A lot of people wear body sprays though, and most 634 00:32:38,440 --> 00:32:40,200 Speaker 1: I mean in most emerging markets. I mean, body spray 635 00:32:40,240 --> 00:32:40,680 Speaker 1: is a big thing. 636 00:32:41,040 --> 00:32:43,280 Speaker 8: But here's here's a new market for it. Okay. So 637 00:32:43,320 --> 00:32:46,479 Speaker 8: the axe body spray. Now it's being used by sheep 638 00:32:46,600 --> 00:32:50,160 Speaker 8: farmers to keep rams from fighting. So this is a 639 00:32:50,240 --> 00:32:52,880 Speaker 8: whole new market for this body spray. Okay. You have 640 00:32:52,920 --> 00:32:55,320 Speaker 8: the sheep farmers who are using it because it actually 641 00:32:55,400 --> 00:32:59,000 Speaker 8: masks the hormones to get the boys to stop butting 642 00:32:59,040 --> 00:33:01,680 Speaker 8: those heads so they get out of control. With that. 643 00:33:01,880 --> 00:33:04,440 Speaker 8: You have the axe Africa or in links it's called 644 00:33:04,480 --> 00:33:07,600 Speaker 8: links actually in the UK or Links Africa. Those are 645 00:33:07,600 --> 00:33:10,360 Speaker 8: the scent no, and it gets even They even use 646 00:33:10,440 --> 00:33:13,040 Speaker 8: it on the smells. You can use it on the 647 00:33:13,080 --> 00:33:15,760 Speaker 8: females too, not just the males, because it convinces the 648 00:33:15,840 --> 00:33:19,960 Speaker 8: mother to get these orphan lambs because it distracts them. 649 00:33:19,960 --> 00:33:23,080 Speaker 8: They're using their scent and they like the orphan lambs. 650 00:33:23,120 --> 00:33:28,160 Speaker 2: The Axe Green Geranium premium deodorant, its body spray. 651 00:33:28,320 --> 00:33:32,360 Speaker 8: Yes, they're using it for sheep and to stop the ram. 652 00:33:32,920 --> 00:33:34,880 Speaker 1: Let me tell you. I use Axe pomade, which I 653 00:33:34,880 --> 00:33:36,720 Speaker 1: feel and the shine, the blue one. I love it. 654 00:33:36,720 --> 00:33:40,880 Speaker 1: It's absolutely That's my only product I tried, the only product. No, 655 00:33:41,000 --> 00:33:44,040 Speaker 1: not the spray. I use the palmade from my hands wet. 656 00:33:46,520 --> 00:33:48,600 Speaker 2: The YouTube audience is going to be more interested in 657 00:33:48,640 --> 00:33:52,360 Speaker 2: the Royal Pineapple premium deodorant body spray. 658 00:33:52,080 --> 00:33:54,360 Speaker 1: Than I'm a really good smelling sheep out. 659 00:33:54,520 --> 00:33:56,040 Speaker 2: So this was twisted today. 660 00:33:56,520 --> 00:33:58,600 Speaker 8: It would, but I always got to engine with that kicker. 661 00:33:58,680 --> 00:34:00,800 Speaker 8: You know you got the engine by saying what did 662 00:34:00,840 --> 00:34:01,320 Speaker 8: you just say? 663 00:34:01,520 --> 00:34:03,800 Speaker 2: Listen, let me tell you I think, thank you for 664 00:34:03,920 --> 00:34:07,160 Speaker 2: the I think, thank you for the newspapers. This is 665 00:34:07,160 --> 00:34:12,239 Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast, bringing you the best in economics, finance, investment, 666 00:34:12,440 --> 00:34:16,040 Speaker 2: and international relations. You can also watch the show live 667 00:34:16,280 --> 00:34:20,600 Speaker 2: on YouTube. Visit the Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to 668 00:34:20,760 --> 00:34:24,120 Speaker 2: see the show weekday mornings from seven to ten am 669 00:34:24,200 --> 00:34:28,200 Speaker 2: Eastern from our global headquarters in New York City. Subscribe 670 00:34:28,239 --> 00:34:31,960 Speaker 2: to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen, 671 00:34:32,280 --> 00:34:35,960 Speaker 2: and always on Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg terminal, and the 672 00:34:35,960 --> 00:34:37,520 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Business app.