1 00:00:01,520 --> 00:00:05,040 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Betting CROs PGA Podcast. I'm Pat Fitzmorris 2 00:00:05,040 --> 00:00:07,160 Speaker 1: along with my partner in crime, Bau McBrayer. 3 00:00:07,280 --> 00:00:08,280 Speaker 2: Today we give you. 4 00:00:08,160 --> 00:00:12,320 Speaker 1: A betting preview for the Texas Children's Houston Open, the 5 00:00:12,360 --> 00:00:15,440 Speaker 1: first part of a Texas two step ahead of the Masters. 6 00:00:15,720 --> 00:00:17,639 Speaker 2: Let's start with a quick recap of. 7 00:00:17,800 --> 00:00:21,480 Speaker 1: The final tournament of the Florida Swing, the Valvespar Championship. 8 00:00:22,040 --> 00:00:24,200 Speaker 1: After being runner up to Cameron Young at the Players 9 00:00:24,280 --> 00:00:27,920 Speaker 1: Championship a couple of weeks just one week earlier, Matt 10 00:00:27,920 --> 00:00:31,920 Speaker 1: Fitzpatrick wins the Valspar. Fitzpatrick roled in a fourteen foot 11 00:00:31,960 --> 00:00:34,760 Speaker 1: birdie putt on the eighteenth hole Sunday to move one 12 00:00:34,800 --> 00:00:37,440 Speaker 1: shot ahead of David Lipski, who was playing in the 13 00:00:37,479 --> 00:00:40,519 Speaker 1: final group. Lipsgate a thirty two foot birdie putt from 14 00:00:40,520 --> 00:00:42,960 Speaker 1: the fringe to force a playoff, but just missed on 15 00:00:43,000 --> 00:00:45,440 Speaker 1: the low side of the hall, and Fitzpatrick at his 16 00:00:45,520 --> 00:00:49,200 Speaker 1: third PGA Tour victory only three That seems hard to believe, 17 00:00:50,000 --> 00:00:54,000 Speaker 1: his first since the twenty twenty three RBC Heritage. Fitz 18 00:00:54,080 --> 00:00:56,880 Speaker 1: was rock steady throughout the tournament on the very difficult 19 00:00:57,040 --> 00:01:00,520 Speaker 1: copper Head course. He only had four bogies over his 20 00:01:00,640 --> 00:01:05,000 Speaker 1: four rounds and was bogie free in the final two rounds. 21 00:01:05,360 --> 00:01:08,520 Speaker 1: Fitzpatrick had started the day three shots behind leaders Sung Jim, 22 00:01:08,560 --> 00:01:11,440 Speaker 1: who opened with a seven hunder par sixty four on Thursday. 23 00:01:11,520 --> 00:01:14,560 Speaker 1: But this year's Florida Swing not very kind of the 24 00:01:14,560 --> 00:01:19,720 Speaker 1: players who slept on a lead Saturday nights, Shane Lowry, Daniel. 25 00:01:19,360 --> 00:01:21,039 Speaker 2: Berger, Ludwig Oberg. 26 00:01:21,480 --> 00:01:24,120 Speaker 1: They all got tackled from behind in other Florida events 27 00:01:24,160 --> 00:01:26,759 Speaker 1: this year. Im was four over part in his first 28 00:01:26,760 --> 00:01:30,080 Speaker 1: eight holes Sunday, just couldn't recover. Other players fell by 29 00:01:30,080 --> 00:01:33,240 Speaker 1: the wayside. Two Englishman Marco Penge was in the hunt 30 00:01:33,280 --> 00:01:37,360 Speaker 1: but just couldn't sustain any mentum momentum three times on 31 00:01:37,480 --> 00:01:40,680 Speaker 1: Sunday Penge made a birdie and immediately. 32 00:01:40,160 --> 00:01:41,720 Speaker 2: Followed it up with a bogie. 33 00:01:42,440 --> 00:01:44,920 Speaker 1: Let's see, there was forty five year old Brent Snedecker 34 00:01:45,080 --> 00:01:50,280 Speaker 1: hitting drivers off the deck, turning back the clock. Amazing 35 00:01:50,320 --> 00:01:52,360 Speaker 1: to watch him with those drivers off the deck. 36 00:01:52,520 --> 00:01:52,960 Speaker 2: No tea. 37 00:01:53,200 --> 00:01:55,480 Speaker 1: But Snid shot a seventy six on Sunday and fell 38 00:01:55,520 --> 00:01:58,280 Speaker 1: out of the running. Sanders Schoffley shot a sixty five 39 00:01:58,320 --> 00:02:01,080 Speaker 1: in the final round, Jordan Smith six, but they were 40 00:02:01,080 --> 00:02:03,440 Speaker 1: both a little too far back to make a run. 41 00:02:03,840 --> 00:02:06,160 Speaker 1: Lipsky was the only other player in the field besides 42 00:02:06,240 --> 00:02:09,960 Speaker 1: Fitzpatrick to be underpart all four of his rounds, but 43 00:02:10,560 --> 00:02:13,240 Speaker 1: after birdying the first hole on Sunday, Lipski just didn't 44 00:02:13,240 --> 00:02:14,480 Speaker 1: make another birdie. 45 00:02:14,160 --> 00:02:14,959 Speaker 2: Until the fourteenth. 46 00:02:15,040 --> 00:02:15,239 Speaker 3: Hall. 47 00:02:16,120 --> 00:02:19,440 Speaker 1: Well, we were messaging each other this weekend and you 48 00:02:19,560 --> 00:02:22,959 Speaker 1: mentioned the Lipsky was actually tenth in your model last week, 49 00:02:23,000 --> 00:02:25,880 Speaker 1: but you just couldn't trust the model on him. Your 50 00:02:25,919 --> 00:02:30,520 Speaker 1: thoughts on the Fitzpatrick victory, Lipsky's surprise, showing anything else 51 00:02:30,560 --> 00:02:32,680 Speaker 1: that was on your mind during the valves bar. 52 00:02:33,080 --> 00:02:35,520 Speaker 4: And I wasn't surprised that fits one. I just didn't 53 00:02:35,560 --> 00:02:37,760 Speaker 4: like his odds. But I did take advantage of playing 54 00:02:37,800 --> 00:02:40,920 Speaker 4: him in dfs which cash for the fourth straight week. 55 00:02:41,520 --> 00:02:43,399 Speaker 4: Had Fits and a lot of my other guys five 56 00:02:43,440 --> 00:02:46,880 Speaker 4: out of six lineup cash. It moving on. But yeah, 57 00:02:46,960 --> 00:02:49,840 Speaker 4: fitz great win three only three on the PGA Tour. 58 00:02:49,880 --> 00:02:51,680 Speaker 4: One of them happened to be a US Open. That's 59 00:02:51,760 --> 00:02:55,120 Speaker 4: that's pretty good. But yeah, it was just it was 60 00:02:55,160 --> 00:02:57,760 Speaker 4: all Fits all the time. I never trusted in, I 61 00:02:57,800 --> 00:03:00,760 Speaker 4: never trusted Lipsky to hold on to their lead. We 62 00:03:00,840 --> 00:03:02,560 Speaker 4: had a couple other guys that kind of came and 63 00:03:02,600 --> 00:03:06,160 Speaker 4: went as the tournament rolled on. That's a tough golf course, 64 00:03:06,200 --> 00:03:08,760 Speaker 4: and sometimes it kind of feel like it felt like 65 00:03:08,800 --> 00:03:13,080 Speaker 4: it was. It was unfairly tough on certain holes where 66 00:03:13,960 --> 00:03:16,160 Speaker 4: you were seeing good shots get rejected and then you 67 00:03:16,200 --> 00:03:18,840 Speaker 4: were seeing bad shots get rewarded with some bounces, like 68 00:03:19,080 --> 00:03:21,960 Speaker 4: I know Brooks Koepka got some very favorable bounces on 69 00:03:22,040 --> 00:03:25,400 Speaker 4: Sunday that could have gone the other way for double bogie. 70 00:03:26,040 --> 00:03:28,040 Speaker 4: But it was good to see him play well. It 71 00:03:28,120 --> 00:03:29,760 Speaker 4: was good to see Xander kind of get into a 72 00:03:29,760 --> 00:03:33,680 Speaker 4: groove on Sunday. We wanted to see that back door win, 73 00:03:33,960 --> 00:03:37,480 Speaker 4: but the course was set up pretty much as exactly 74 00:03:37,520 --> 00:03:40,320 Speaker 4: the way it usually is. With a ten under par 75 00:03:40,400 --> 00:03:43,160 Speaker 4: eleven under par winning score, it just kind of happened 76 00:03:43,240 --> 00:03:46,600 Speaker 4: evened out after an easier start. But yeah, Lipski number ten. 77 00:03:46,640 --> 00:03:49,760 Speaker 4: In my model, I'm not trusting a conditional PGA Tour 78 00:03:49,800 --> 00:03:52,760 Speaker 4: player that only maybe has one or two good tournaments 79 00:03:52,760 --> 00:03:56,040 Speaker 4: a year. He had to do that well to keep 80 00:03:56,080 --> 00:03:59,360 Speaker 4: his status rolling and to hopefully get into the PGA 81 00:03:59,440 --> 00:04:02,200 Speaker 4: Tour full time. I'm next season again. But he's a 82 00:04:02,240 --> 00:04:05,080 Speaker 4: journeyman and I just couldn't trust it because I hadn't 83 00:04:05,080 --> 00:04:08,920 Speaker 4: seen him do really anything of note in a long time, 84 00:04:09,200 --> 00:04:12,440 Speaker 4: hence his conditional statuge but status. But overall is a 85 00:04:12,440 --> 00:04:14,840 Speaker 4: good week. Just DFS kind of bailing me out on 86 00:04:14,880 --> 00:04:17,400 Speaker 4: the book. On the bank roll. 87 00:04:17,600 --> 00:04:20,840 Speaker 1: Yeah, I almost live bet Lipsky bow on Sunday. At 88 00:04:20,839 --> 00:04:23,040 Speaker 1: one point, I think there was a five way tie 89 00:04:23,040 --> 00:04:25,640 Speaker 1: at nine under par and Lipsky had the longest odds 90 00:04:25,680 --> 00:04:27,840 Speaker 1: of anyone who was there, and I was kind of thinking, 91 00:04:27,880 --> 00:04:30,280 Speaker 1: why not David Lipsky butt. I had enough action going 92 00:04:30,320 --> 00:04:32,920 Speaker 1: on March Madness that I figured why bother? 93 00:04:33,560 --> 00:04:37,280 Speaker 2: So Luckily I kept that bunny in my pockets. 94 00:04:38,040 --> 00:04:40,360 Speaker 1: And now the PGA tour heads to Houston for the 95 00:04:40,360 --> 00:04:44,160 Speaker 1: Texas Children's Houston Open. The venue is Memorial Park. It's 96 00:04:44,200 --> 00:04:47,559 Speaker 1: a par seventy one measuring seven four hundred and seventy 97 00:04:47,600 --> 00:04:50,839 Speaker 1: five yards. It's actually a public course operated by the 98 00:04:50,880 --> 00:04:54,400 Speaker 1: Houston Parks and w rec Departments, a ninety year old 99 00:04:54,400 --> 00:04:57,200 Speaker 1: course that was renovated by Tom Doak and Brooks Koepka 100 00:04:57,360 --> 00:05:01,120 Speaker 1: in twenty nineteen. Memorial Park in a nutshell, it's a 101 00:05:01,160 --> 00:05:05,000 Speaker 1: bomber's paradise. This is a long course with wide fairways 102 00:05:05,040 --> 00:05:08,080 Speaker 1: and manageable rough. Got to keep that rough manageable if 103 00:05:08,080 --> 00:05:12,000 Speaker 1: you've got amateurs and you know, public course players out there. 104 00:05:12,400 --> 00:05:14,320 Speaker 1: So the big hitters are going to be a major 105 00:05:14,480 --> 00:05:19,040 Speaker 1: advantage this week. But it's not all about distance. Memorial 106 00:05:19,080 --> 00:05:23,080 Speaker 1: Parks big Bermuda greens are firm and fast. Pro shots 107 00:05:23,080 --> 00:05:26,279 Speaker 1: that aren't precise are in danger of running off the greens. 108 00:05:26,560 --> 00:05:28,800 Speaker 1: A lot of the greens have runoff areas that are 109 00:05:28,800 --> 00:05:31,520 Speaker 1: going to force players to chip off tight lies. So 110 00:05:31,680 --> 00:05:34,039 Speaker 1: it's kind of a good practice for Augusta National in 111 00:05:34,080 --> 00:05:37,080 Speaker 1: that regard. The course is really going to test players 112 00:05:37,080 --> 00:05:41,160 Speaker 1: putting and chipping, and Memorial Park has three par fives 113 00:05:41,200 --> 00:05:44,719 Speaker 1: five par threes. Another course that has five par threes. 114 00:05:44,839 --> 00:05:47,040 Speaker 1: Just like last week, two of the par fives are 115 00:05:47,080 --> 00:05:50,440 Speaker 1: over six hundred yards, five of the par fours are 116 00:05:50,480 --> 00:05:52,800 Speaker 1: four hundred and ninety yards are longer, and three of 117 00:05:52,839 --> 00:05:55,800 Speaker 1: the par fours longer than five hundred yards, including the 118 00:05:55,880 --> 00:05:58,680 Speaker 1: five hundred and twenty two yard opening hole and the 119 00:05:58,760 --> 00:06:02,000 Speaker 1: five hundred and three yard finishing hole. After seeing a 120 00:06:02,040 --> 00:06:05,720 Speaker 1: lot of water hazards on the Florida courses in recent weeks, 121 00:06:05,720 --> 00:06:08,640 Speaker 1: we will not see much this week. Their hazards to 122 00:06:08,680 --> 00:06:12,279 Speaker 1: be navigated on the sixteenth and seventeenth holes. That's about 123 00:06:12,279 --> 00:06:14,440 Speaker 1: it other than a couple of little creeks in front 124 00:06:14,480 --> 00:06:18,640 Speaker 1: of the par threes. Not many bunkers at Memorial Park either. 125 00:06:19,680 --> 00:06:22,680 Speaker 1: So the defending Houston Open champion is Min wou Lee. 126 00:06:22,720 --> 00:06:25,159 Speaker 1: He was twenty under power last year and was just 127 00:06:25,240 --> 00:06:28,839 Speaker 1: barely able to hold off Scotty Scheffler and Gary Woodland, 128 00:06:28,839 --> 00:06:31,880 Speaker 1: who were one shot back. Steven Yeger won the Houston 129 00:06:31,920 --> 00:06:34,359 Speaker 1: Open in twenty twenty four with the score of minus twelve. 130 00:06:35,279 --> 00:06:38,600 Speaker 1: Once again, Scotty Scheffler finished one shot back behind Yeger. 131 00:06:39,080 --> 00:06:41,320 Speaker 1: Tony Fena won here in twenty twenty three with the 132 00:06:41,360 --> 00:06:44,760 Speaker 1: score of sixteen under and Jason Kokrack was ten under 133 00:06:44,760 --> 00:06:47,320 Speaker 1: par to win the Houston Open in twenty twenty two. 134 00:06:48,400 --> 00:06:52,240 Speaker 1: Really oscillating winning scores on this course. It depends a 135 00:06:52,240 --> 00:06:55,720 Speaker 1: lot on the wind and as for the weather, forecast 136 00:06:56,080 --> 00:06:59,320 Speaker 1: warm dry weather This week of course should be very firm. 137 00:06:59,360 --> 00:07:01,640 Speaker 1: They've not gotten a lot of rain in Texas recently. 138 00:07:02,040 --> 00:07:04,279 Speaker 1: Wins expected to be in the ten to fifteen mile 139 00:07:04,320 --> 00:07:06,680 Speaker 1: per hour range most of the week. As we get 140 00:07:06,680 --> 00:07:08,520 Speaker 1: closer to the first round, you might want to check 141 00:07:08,600 --> 00:07:11,560 Speaker 1: the hourly forecast for Houston. See if there might be 142 00:07:11,600 --> 00:07:17,120 Speaker 1: an advantage to having players in the morning tea time Thursday, 143 00:07:17,160 --> 00:07:19,720 Speaker 1: afternoon Friday or vice versa. 144 00:07:20,320 --> 00:07:22,600 Speaker 2: Give me your brain dump on Memorial Park Bow. 145 00:07:23,000 --> 00:07:26,800 Speaker 4: Really straightforward. The tour players don't like this course as 146 00:07:26,840 --> 00:07:29,440 Speaker 4: much as the fans do. The fans like it because 147 00:07:29,480 --> 00:07:31,760 Speaker 4: it's a public course that anybody can play if you 148 00:07:31,800 --> 00:07:35,080 Speaker 4: just go to Houston, Texas. The pros and they do 149 00:07:35,200 --> 00:07:37,000 Speaker 4: kind of see it as a warm up for Augusta 150 00:07:37,040 --> 00:07:40,800 Speaker 4: in certain ways, but the wide fairways and short rough 151 00:07:40,920 --> 00:07:43,840 Speaker 4: is about where it ends because Augusta is a whole 152 00:07:43,840 --> 00:07:47,240 Speaker 4: different animal around the greens. Even with the conditions kind 153 00:07:47,240 --> 00:07:51,640 Speaker 4: of manicured to help with that similarity, this course is 154 00:07:51,840 --> 00:07:56,040 Speaker 4: wide open and long. These guys, like you said, the 155 00:07:56,080 --> 00:07:58,360 Speaker 4: bombers are going to love it here because there's not 156 00:07:58,400 --> 00:08:02,120 Speaker 4: really a d incentivized and going after t shots, so 157 00:08:02,160 --> 00:08:05,520 Speaker 4: your big hitters who can also get close on approach. 158 00:08:05,600 --> 00:08:08,679 Speaker 4: Approach is huge here. It's a first and second shot 159 00:08:08,680 --> 00:08:10,720 Speaker 4: golf course, and if that first SHOT's got some extra 160 00:08:10,760 --> 00:08:13,640 Speaker 4: distance on it, you're going to have shorter approach distances, 161 00:08:13,680 --> 00:08:16,520 Speaker 4: and that's a huge advantage on this course with all 162 00:08:16,560 --> 00:08:20,280 Speaker 4: the runoffs, all the short game stress that it can 163 00:08:20,320 --> 00:08:23,600 Speaker 4: put on wayward approach shots, so approach is still very 164 00:08:23,720 --> 00:08:27,160 Speaker 4: much the most important thing, but driving distance gives an advantage, 165 00:08:27,160 --> 00:08:29,880 Speaker 4: and then you're at your strokes gained around the green 166 00:08:30,000 --> 00:08:33,000 Speaker 4: and your scrambling percentage is going to be important along 167 00:08:33,040 --> 00:08:37,280 Speaker 4: with bogie avoidance. So not necessarily an easy course. It 168 00:08:37,360 --> 00:08:39,800 Speaker 4: can play easier if the wind is down, but if 169 00:08:39,840 --> 00:08:42,000 Speaker 4: the wind is up, you're going to see scores between 170 00:08:42,040 --> 00:08:45,320 Speaker 4: ten and fifteen hunder part. So yeah, I think it 171 00:08:45,360 --> 00:08:47,080 Speaker 4: really does depend on the win where we see the 172 00:08:47,120 --> 00:08:50,040 Speaker 4: winners with a winner's scorefall. But at the same time, 173 00:08:50,240 --> 00:08:53,520 Speaker 4: it's I think only three of the last four winners 174 00:08:53,520 --> 00:08:56,520 Speaker 4: here have come from outside fifty to one odds, So 175 00:08:56,720 --> 00:08:59,839 Speaker 4: just because Scotti Scheffler is here does not mean he 176 00:09:00,200 --> 00:09:02,480 Speaker 4: is worth the odds to bet on. And even if 177 00:09:02,480 --> 00:09:04,920 Speaker 4: he is, we're going to get a nice value boost 178 00:09:04,960 --> 00:09:06,479 Speaker 4: on everybody else. 179 00:09:07,040 --> 00:09:08,840 Speaker 1: And we will get to the odds for the Houston 180 00:09:08,880 --> 00:09:10,800 Speaker 1: to open in just a moment. But I want to 181 00:09:10,840 --> 00:09:15,000 Speaker 1: mention first how much I enjoy the convenience of Omaha Steaks. 182 00:09:15,040 --> 00:09:17,600 Speaker 1: There is a box from Omaha Steaks and my freezer 183 00:09:17,679 --> 00:09:21,400 Speaker 1: right now. Omaha Steaks are delicious, Every steak is perfectly 184 00:09:21,440 --> 00:09:25,080 Speaker 1: aged to maximize tenderness and handcut by master Butcher's in 185 00:09:25,120 --> 00:09:29,360 Speaker 1: America's Heartland, grass fed, grain finished beef has more marbling 186 00:09:29,400 --> 00:09:33,320 Speaker 1: for exceptional flavor. 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Some 198 00:10:15,960 --> 00:10:18,000 Speaker 1: more of the Houston Open odds at the top of 199 00:10:18,000 --> 00:10:20,040 Speaker 1: the board, and some of these odds might have changed. 200 00:10:20,080 --> 00:10:25,040 Speaker 1: These are from Monday at about midday, so minwoo Lee 201 00:10:25,200 --> 00:10:27,320 Speaker 1: twenty two and a half to one, Chris godder Up 202 00:10:27,360 --> 00:10:29,360 Speaker 1: and Sam Burns twenty four and a half to one, 203 00:10:29,760 --> 00:10:33,240 Speaker 1: Brooks Kepkin Jake Napp twenty six to one, Ricky Fowler 204 00:10:33,240 --> 00:10:36,040 Speaker 1: twenty eight to one, Kurt Kittiyama thirty one to one, 205 00:10:36,360 --> 00:10:40,520 Speaker 1: Nikolai Hoyguard, Harry Hall and Michael Thorbiornson thirty five to one, 206 00:10:40,760 --> 00:10:45,240 Speaker 1: Ben Griffin and Michael Penge Marco Penge excuse me thirty 207 00:10:45,280 --> 00:10:47,840 Speaker 1: six to one, Harris English thirty seven to one, and 208 00:10:47,920 --> 00:10:49,640 Speaker 1: Adam Scott thirty eight to one. 209 00:10:50,360 --> 00:10:52,040 Speaker 2: Anyone you like here, bo, I. 210 00:10:51,920 --> 00:10:53,439 Speaker 4: Like a lot of guys in this group, and it's 211 00:10:53,480 --> 00:10:56,880 Speaker 4: really hard because I have my top ten and my model. 212 00:10:56,880 --> 00:11:00,280 Speaker 4: I'm looking right at it and it's Scotty one, and 213 00:11:00,320 --> 00:11:03,960 Speaker 4: then everybody else is in this tier in my top ten, 214 00:11:04,440 --> 00:11:06,680 Speaker 4: so it's it's really going to be hard. I really 215 00:11:06,720 --> 00:11:08,959 Speaker 4: do like Chris got her up here. This is the 216 00:11:09,080 --> 00:11:11,440 Speaker 4: kind of course where he's going to have every bit 217 00:11:11,480 --> 00:11:14,280 Speaker 4: of the advantage as a long hitter, as a good 218 00:11:14,440 --> 00:11:17,080 Speaker 4: long airned approach player, and he's he's shown some really 219 00:11:17,120 --> 00:11:20,000 Speaker 4: good hands around the greens this season. It's kind of 220 00:11:20,000 --> 00:11:22,640 Speaker 4: taken his game to a new level. Chris gotter Up 221 00:11:22,720 --> 00:11:25,360 Speaker 4: is the is the really big price, getting twenty five 222 00:11:25,400 --> 00:11:27,560 Speaker 4: to one odds on him, and of course that fits 223 00:11:27,640 --> 00:11:30,960 Speaker 4: him absolutely perfect. But at the same time, number two 224 00:11:31,040 --> 00:11:34,120 Speaker 4: in my model is Nicolai Hoyguard, and I'm looking at 225 00:11:34,160 --> 00:11:37,200 Speaker 4: another guy who's amazing off the tee. He's shown a 226 00:11:37,240 --> 00:11:41,120 Speaker 4: lot better on approach this season and bogey avoidance. He's 227 00:11:41,160 --> 00:11:44,080 Speaker 4: third in this field. That's huge for Nikolai Hoygard, who 228 00:11:44,120 --> 00:11:47,040 Speaker 4: has always been known along with his twin brother, as 229 00:11:47,200 --> 00:11:51,560 Speaker 4: very aggressive players, especially off on approach. So to show 230 00:11:51,600 --> 00:11:54,520 Speaker 4: that he's avoiding bogies on top of being a great 231 00:11:54,559 --> 00:11:57,920 Speaker 4: ball striker, this is another great setup for him. And 232 00:11:58,160 --> 00:12:00,720 Speaker 4: I'm looking at thirty three to one for Nickel Hoyguard, 233 00:12:01,240 --> 00:12:03,160 Speaker 4: and at the same time I'm looking at thirty to 234 00:12:03,160 --> 00:12:05,640 Speaker 4: one for Kirk Kiddiyama, who's fifth in my model, and 235 00:12:05,679 --> 00:12:08,920 Speaker 4: I can't necessarily bet on him because the numbers just 236 00:12:08,960 --> 00:12:11,959 Speaker 4: don't line up with the value. And so yes, I'm 237 00:12:11,960 --> 00:12:14,720 Speaker 4: gonna have a lot of more ds DFS lineups this 238 00:12:14,760 --> 00:12:17,240 Speaker 4: week than I usually have because there's so many guys 239 00:12:17,240 --> 00:12:19,320 Speaker 4: in this top tier. Ricky Fowlers in this top tier 240 00:12:19,360 --> 00:12:21,400 Speaker 4: for me, Adam Scott's in this top tier for me, 241 00:12:21,440 --> 00:12:24,000 Speaker 4: Michael thorpy Jornsen. I'm gonna have to bet on Michael 242 00:12:24,000 --> 00:12:27,120 Speaker 4: thorpy Jornsen because of his iron game and his short 243 00:12:27,120 --> 00:12:29,920 Speaker 4: game playing this year thirty seven to one. I guess 244 00:12:29,960 --> 00:12:32,280 Speaker 4: I just have to take my pick of three or 245 00:12:32,280 --> 00:12:34,560 Speaker 4: four of these guys to bet on, because there's six 246 00:12:34,600 --> 00:12:36,320 Speaker 4: of them that I'm looking right out that I really 247 00:12:36,320 --> 00:12:39,920 Speaker 4: want to lay some money on. And it's just the 248 00:12:39,960 --> 00:12:41,560 Speaker 4: way it's gonna have to be. Is I'm just have 249 00:12:41,640 --> 00:12:44,000 Speaker 4: to load up on this zone because the rest of 250 00:12:44,040 --> 00:12:46,120 Speaker 4: these tiers are kind of sparse for me. 251 00:12:47,440 --> 00:12:49,880 Speaker 1: I know, this top tier really is a candy store ball. 252 00:12:50,000 --> 00:12:52,679 Speaker 1: I'm intrigued by Hoyguard too. 253 00:12:53,360 --> 00:12:53,560 Speaker 2: Yeah. 254 00:12:53,640 --> 00:12:57,560 Speaker 1: Okay, so last week he was fifty fifth at the 255 00:12:57,640 --> 00:12:59,839 Speaker 1: valves Bar, but that didn't seem like a great fit. 256 00:13:00,320 --> 00:13:02,600 Speaker 1: A big hitter who sometimes sprays it off the tee 257 00:13:02,640 --> 00:13:06,160 Speaker 1: a little bit. In his previous six events, Hoygard had 258 00:13:06,160 --> 00:13:09,040 Speaker 1: two top fives in additional top ten and was top 259 00:13:09,080 --> 00:13:12,840 Speaker 1: twenty seven in all six so pretty good short game. 260 00:13:13,240 --> 00:13:16,679 Speaker 1: He's top twenty five in strokes game putting. The occasional 261 00:13:16,720 --> 00:13:19,400 Speaker 1: wayward t shot isn't going to kill him at Houston, 262 00:13:19,480 --> 00:13:22,600 Speaker 1: so I like him a lot too. With god herup, 263 00:13:22,640 --> 00:13:26,280 Speaker 1: does it bother you that great start to the season, 264 00:13:26,320 --> 00:13:29,439 Speaker 1: obviously with the two wins, last one coming in Phoenix, 265 00:13:29,480 --> 00:13:32,720 Speaker 1: but the last four events a thirty seventh at Pebble Beach, 266 00:13:33,200 --> 00:13:36,319 Speaker 1: a miscut at the Genesis Invitational, in eighteenth at the 267 00:13:36,400 --> 00:13:40,280 Speaker 1: Arnold Palmer but then a fifty sixth at the Players Championship. 268 00:13:40,440 --> 00:13:42,600 Speaker 2: Not concerned about the downward trend now. 269 00:13:42,600 --> 00:13:44,960 Speaker 4: The downward trend came on courses that don't fit him 270 00:13:44,960 --> 00:13:47,000 Speaker 4: well at all, like Pebble and the Players. Those are 271 00:13:47,040 --> 00:13:50,120 Speaker 4: two courses that don't match up with his game at all. 272 00:13:50,760 --> 00:13:53,240 Speaker 4: The Genesis was just playing brutally tough and he had 273 00:13:53,240 --> 00:13:55,760 Speaker 4: a really tough go of it. Arnold Palmer was a 274 00:13:55,800 --> 00:13:58,520 Speaker 4: pretty good setup for him, but again not the best 275 00:13:58,520 --> 00:14:00,800 Speaker 4: putter in Arnold Palmer. At ball, you have to be 276 00:14:00,880 --> 00:14:03,160 Speaker 4: able to not three putt, and he had quite a 277 00:14:03,160 --> 00:14:06,640 Speaker 4: few that week, even though he finished eighteenth. I think 278 00:14:06,679 --> 00:14:09,560 Speaker 4: we're back to this type of courses where Chris Goddrup 279 00:14:09,600 --> 00:14:12,320 Speaker 4: is going to really show what he can do as 280 00:14:12,320 --> 00:14:13,920 Speaker 4: we get into the part of the schedule. It's not 281 00:14:13,920 --> 00:14:16,400 Speaker 4: necessarily easier, but we're going to be running into more 282 00:14:16,440 --> 00:14:20,560 Speaker 4: parkland style courses that kind of suit his game, where 283 00:14:20,640 --> 00:14:22,720 Speaker 4: it's not necessarily going to kill him to be in 284 00:14:22,760 --> 00:14:24,840 Speaker 4: the first cut of rough off the fairway, because he's 285 00:14:24,840 --> 00:14:26,560 Speaker 4: going to be three hundred and thirty yards down there 286 00:14:26,560 --> 00:14:29,320 Speaker 4: with a mid iron into a five hundred yard part four. 287 00:14:29,640 --> 00:14:31,600 Speaker 4: That's a huge advantage at this golf course. 288 00:14:32,720 --> 00:14:35,680 Speaker 1: Yes, sir, we should at least mention minwou League, the 289 00:14:35,720 --> 00:14:40,160 Speaker 1: defending champ one in his Houston Open debut. He's had 290 00:14:40,200 --> 00:14:43,640 Speaker 1: two top ten and three top fifteen finishes in his 291 00:14:43,720 --> 00:14:46,120 Speaker 1: last four starts, including a runner up at Pebble Beach 292 00:14:46,160 --> 00:14:48,760 Speaker 1: and a sixth at the Arnold Palmer. He's seventh in 293 00:14:48,840 --> 00:14:51,600 Speaker 1: strokes gained off the tee, fifteenth in strokes gained ted 294 00:14:51,640 --> 00:14:54,640 Speaker 1: to green, twenty third strokes gained around the green, thirty 295 00:14:54,680 --> 00:14:57,560 Speaker 1: fourth in strokes gained prodding. The profile looks great, Paul, 296 00:14:57,600 --> 00:14:59,200 Speaker 1: I just don't know if we're getting enough value with 297 00:14:59,200 --> 00:14:59,840 Speaker 1: the odds. 298 00:14:59,600 --> 00:15:01,720 Speaker 4: And the thing is, it's another guy in this tier 299 00:15:01,800 --> 00:15:04,760 Speaker 4: that's very high in my model is going is lining up. 300 00:15:04,800 --> 00:15:08,040 Speaker 4: He's got amazing vibes here, winning last year over Scottie Scheffler. 301 00:15:08,680 --> 00:15:12,880 Speaker 4: This is and again another guy like Chris Gottrup who 302 00:15:12,960 --> 00:15:15,040 Speaker 4: is taking his game to a new level in twenty 303 00:15:15,080 --> 00:15:17,680 Speaker 4: twenty six. And so it just for me, it comes 304 00:15:17,680 --> 00:15:20,400 Speaker 4: down to value. And I feel stronger about Chris gottr 305 00:15:20,440 --> 00:15:22,280 Speaker 4: Up at twenty five to one than I do at 306 00:15:22,280 --> 00:15:24,000 Speaker 4: the defending champion at Short Rods. 307 00:15:25,280 --> 00:15:28,280 Speaker 1: Yeah, let's let's go back to Brooksy for a second. 308 00:15:28,760 --> 00:15:32,480 Speaker 1: The ball striking has been terrific, leads the tour, and 309 00:15:32,560 --> 00:15:35,840 Speaker 1: Strokes gan an approach sixth and Strokes gained Tita Green. 310 00:15:36,640 --> 00:15:38,040 Speaker 2: It's just that the putter has been. 311 00:15:37,920 --> 00:15:41,960 Speaker 1: Frosty seventh and Strokes ganned putting. 312 00:15:42,120 --> 00:15:44,080 Speaker 4: Seeing signs of thawing out, though. 313 00:15:44,760 --> 00:15:45,960 Speaker 2: We are seeing a thought ball. 314 00:15:46,080 --> 00:15:49,920 Speaker 1: In his last three Florida events, Kopka finished ninth, thirteenth, 315 00:15:50,000 --> 00:15:55,280 Speaker 1: and eighteenth. And you know, the guy was intimately intimately 316 00:15:55,400 --> 00:15:57,400 Speaker 1: involved with the restoration. 317 00:15:57,320 --> 00:16:00,200 Speaker 4: Golf course as I just see him picture had a 318 00:16:00,200 --> 00:16:02,400 Speaker 4: little model on the table like Zeelander. 319 00:16:04,920 --> 00:16:09,720 Speaker 2: So yeah, I mean he knows the course. I don't know. 320 00:16:09,960 --> 00:16:12,520 Speaker 2: I'm kind of interested, I am. 321 00:16:12,960 --> 00:16:14,680 Speaker 4: I don't know if he can win here, but I 322 00:16:14,720 --> 00:16:18,680 Speaker 4: do like that parlay that I talked about. His top 323 00:16:18,680 --> 00:16:21,200 Speaker 4: ten bets like plus two to fifty five, not terrible. 324 00:16:21,400 --> 00:16:24,200 Speaker 4: His top five bet is plus four ninety five something 325 00:16:24,240 --> 00:16:26,960 Speaker 4: like that, so you're getting decent value on placement bets. 326 00:16:27,200 --> 00:16:30,400 Speaker 4: His outright is a little scary for me because that 327 00:16:30,440 --> 00:16:33,080 Speaker 4: putter is going to be pretty important here big greens, 328 00:16:33,280 --> 00:16:35,880 Speaker 4: three put avoidances in my model. That's something I'm not 329 00:16:35,960 --> 00:16:37,040 Speaker 4: ignoring completely. 330 00:16:38,520 --> 00:16:40,160 Speaker 1: Two other guys that want to ask you about real 331 00:16:40,200 --> 00:16:43,800 Speaker 1: fast Jake Napp, who had finished eleventh or better in 332 00:16:43,840 --> 00:16:46,200 Speaker 1: his first five events of the year before missing the 333 00:16:46,240 --> 00:16:50,760 Speaker 1: cut at the Players Championship. That was his only start 334 00:16:50,800 --> 00:16:54,360 Speaker 1: since the West Coast Swing. Nap ranks eighth and driving distance. 335 00:16:54,400 --> 00:16:57,360 Speaker 1: We know he pounds the ball, second strokes, game, putting 336 00:16:57,720 --> 00:17:00,560 Speaker 1: spending as in the greens to finish twenty seventh in 337 00:17:00,600 --> 00:17:01,480 Speaker 1: Houston last year. 338 00:17:01,560 --> 00:17:06,760 Speaker 4: Any interest, Nope, We'll reiterate my Jake Nap clause, which 339 00:17:06,840 --> 00:17:10,760 Speaker 4: is when needing to filter by difficult scoring conditions relative 340 00:17:10,800 --> 00:17:13,320 Speaker 4: to part, Jake Nap goes from the top five in 341 00:17:13,320 --> 00:17:16,119 Speaker 4: my model to outside the top thirty, and that is 342 00:17:16,160 --> 00:17:18,320 Speaker 4: the Jake Nap effect. If you're playing on a golf 343 00:17:18,320 --> 00:17:22,760 Speaker 4: course like this with average or easier scoring conditions, we're 344 00:17:22,840 --> 00:17:25,639 Speaker 4: loading up on the JA bandwagon. But this is not 345 00:17:25,680 --> 00:17:29,040 Speaker 4: one of those golf courses, we're expecting a winning score 346 00:17:29,560 --> 00:17:31,960 Speaker 4: worse than twenty under par. I would even say worse 347 00:17:32,000 --> 00:17:34,760 Speaker 4: than sixteen under part this week if the wind holds 348 00:17:34,760 --> 00:17:38,000 Speaker 4: in that one to two club range. Jake Napp automatically 349 00:17:38,040 --> 00:17:41,120 Speaker 4: disqualified at his odds. He was getting short odds anyway. 350 00:17:41,280 --> 00:17:43,880 Speaker 4: I just can't do it. I will reiterate my Jake 351 00:17:44,000 --> 00:17:46,920 Speaker 4: Nap law. It is the law because he has never 352 00:17:47,000 --> 00:17:50,119 Speaker 4: once overcome difficult scoring conditions to do anything of note. 353 00:17:51,560 --> 00:17:54,080 Speaker 2: Save Jake Nap for the Birdie Fest, Yeah, save. 354 00:17:53,960 --> 00:17:57,880 Speaker 4: Him for the three m and all those Midwestern tracks 355 00:17:57,880 --> 00:17:59,880 Speaker 4: that Pat Fitzmorris is so comfortable. 356 00:18:03,680 --> 00:18:06,600 Speaker 1: Marco Penge, I don't know, Bow. He feels like a 357 00:18:06,640 --> 00:18:07,760 Speaker 1: trap to me. This week. 358 00:18:08,400 --> 00:18:10,359 Speaker 2: We know he's gonna get interest because he was in 359 00:18:10,359 --> 00:18:12,480 Speaker 2: contention at the valspar and he hits it a mile 360 00:18:12,520 --> 00:18:15,160 Speaker 2: off the tee. But the short game has been really 361 00:18:15,200 --> 00:18:16,000 Speaker 2: poor this year. 362 00:18:16,000 --> 00:18:18,439 Speaker 1: He's outside the top one hundred strokes gained putting and 363 00:18:19,160 --> 00:18:22,320 Speaker 1: also strokes gained around the green, and his iron play 364 00:18:22,320 --> 00:18:23,600 Speaker 1: has not been sterling either. 365 00:18:23,760 --> 00:18:26,800 Speaker 4: No, and I think that's the problem with off the tee. 366 00:18:26,840 --> 00:18:28,879 Speaker 4: He's great, He's going to do fine here off the 367 00:18:28,920 --> 00:18:32,760 Speaker 4: tee However, his iron game has been a little bit 368 00:18:32,800 --> 00:18:35,919 Speaker 4: more off the mark recently, which does not help his 369 00:18:36,000 --> 00:18:38,440 Speaker 4: short game. He actually showed some pretty good hands around 370 00:18:38,440 --> 00:18:41,160 Speaker 4: the green on Sunday at the Valspar, but up until 371 00:18:41,160 --> 00:18:44,280 Speaker 4: that point he was scuffling. Scrambling was a low percentage, 372 00:18:44,600 --> 00:18:47,639 Speaker 4: and he was making more putts than the normal on 373 00:18:47,760 --> 00:18:50,239 Speaker 4: Sunday at the Valspar. I don't know if he can 374 00:18:50,320 --> 00:18:52,280 Speaker 4: keep that up. This golf course is going to be 375 00:18:53,080 --> 00:18:57,520 Speaker 4: pretty demanding on second shots, and despite him having shorter 376 00:18:57,800 --> 00:19:01,000 Speaker 4: clubs into approach because he's a bomber, I don't know 377 00:19:01,040 --> 00:19:03,199 Speaker 4: if he's up to snuff on the approach game. This 378 00:19:03,280 --> 00:19:06,280 Speaker 4: is the It all depends on approach here. That's another 379 00:19:06,359 --> 00:19:08,439 Speaker 4: second shot golf course. Even if you do get an 380 00:19:08,440 --> 00:19:11,800 Speaker 4: advantage off the tea, you have to make those opportunities count. 381 00:19:13,160 --> 00:19:15,520 Speaker 2: You've got these five hundred and twenty yard par fowards. 382 00:19:15,640 --> 00:19:18,080 Speaker 1: Even if you've repped one three point thirty, you've still 383 00:19:18,119 --> 00:19:20,359 Speaker 1: got you know, some sort of middle iron coming in. 384 00:19:20,600 --> 00:19:22,920 Speaker 2: So pretty wild, of course, Pretty wild. 385 00:19:23,800 --> 00:19:25,600 Speaker 1: All right, Let's move down the board a little bit 386 00:19:25,600 --> 00:19:27,680 Speaker 1: with the odds and get to the next tire. We've 387 00:19:27,680 --> 00:19:30,560 Speaker 1: got Shane Lowry at forty two to one, Keith Mitchell 388 00:19:30,640 --> 00:19:33,320 Speaker 1: forty six to one, Ryan Gerard forty seven to one, 389 00:19:33,440 --> 00:19:36,880 Speaker 1: Jason Day forty nine to one, Rasmus Hoyguard fifty two 390 00:19:36,880 --> 00:19:40,280 Speaker 1: to one, Sam Stevens fifty three to one, Taylor Pendrith 391 00:19:40,359 --> 00:19:43,679 Speaker 1: and Wyndham Clark fifty four to one, Sung JM fifty 392 00:19:43,760 --> 00:19:47,200 Speaker 1: seven to one, Pearson Coodi fifty eight to one, Alex 393 00:19:47,240 --> 00:19:50,440 Speaker 1: Smalley sixty one to one, Steven Jeger sixty four to one, 394 00:19:50,760 --> 00:19:54,840 Speaker 1: see Heathagala sixty six to one, Patrick Rogers sixty seven 395 00:19:54,920 --> 00:19:57,679 Speaker 1: to one, and Davis Thompson sixty nine to one. What 396 00:19:57,760 --> 00:19:59,880 Speaker 1: about this group, bo, is there anyone who jumps out 397 00:19:59,760 --> 00:20:00,000 Speaker 1: at you? 398 00:20:00,760 --> 00:20:04,880 Speaker 4: Only one really jumps out in that Sahit Thigala, who 399 00:20:05,000 --> 00:20:08,160 Speaker 4: as a guy who has the butteriest, softest short game 400 00:20:08,200 --> 00:20:09,960 Speaker 4: hands in the world right now. This guy is so 401 00:20:10,200 --> 00:20:13,640 Speaker 4: good around the greens and off the tee. He's been neutral, 402 00:20:13,680 --> 00:20:15,720 Speaker 4: which is good for him because he if he's off 403 00:20:15,760 --> 00:20:18,400 Speaker 4: in the boondogs, you're not going to get much scoring 404 00:20:18,400 --> 00:20:21,000 Speaker 4: out of him. But he's a tough course merchant, so 405 00:20:21,119 --> 00:20:23,800 Speaker 4: he Thigala with his short game can scramble around just 406 00:20:23,800 --> 00:20:26,760 Speaker 4: about any golf course on the planet, and this is 407 00:20:26,840 --> 00:20:29,440 Speaker 4: kind of a place where he has pretty good distance. 408 00:20:29,680 --> 00:20:33,400 Speaker 4: He's not going to be penalized with his inaccuracy off 409 00:20:33,440 --> 00:20:35,639 Speaker 4: the tee. His approach game has been really strong this 410 00:20:35,760 --> 00:20:39,840 Speaker 4: season two, So look for Sahit Thigala to use his 411 00:20:39,920 --> 00:20:43,000 Speaker 4: short game prowess to score and his approach game to 412 00:20:43,080 --> 00:20:46,320 Speaker 4: get into those opportunities where a lot of these guys 413 00:20:46,359 --> 00:20:47,680 Speaker 4: are just going to be trying to make par on 414 00:20:47,720 --> 00:20:49,919 Speaker 4: these long part fours. I think the Yala is going 415 00:20:50,000 --> 00:20:51,440 Speaker 4: to have a little bit more of a green light 416 00:20:51,560 --> 00:20:54,840 Speaker 4: mentality on this type of course where he can really 417 00:20:54,920 --> 00:20:57,840 Speaker 4: let it free. And I really like him at this 418 00:20:57,960 --> 00:21:00,159 Speaker 4: golf course. And I got him at fifty nine to one. 419 00:21:00,200 --> 00:21:04,040 Speaker 4: That's really strong. Sixty six to one looks like where 420 00:21:04,040 --> 00:21:05,760 Speaker 4: you got him. I'm gonna have to shop around a 421 00:21:05,760 --> 00:21:07,840 Speaker 4: little bit more because I love me some Sachit Thigala 422 00:21:07,960 --> 00:21:08,359 Speaker 4: this week. 423 00:21:09,960 --> 00:21:15,240 Speaker 1: Yeah, bo, I'm still terrified by like he got off 424 00:21:15,320 --> 00:21:18,320 Speaker 1: track in that final round of the Players Championship when 425 00:21:18,359 --> 00:21:20,560 Speaker 1: he shot US seventy seven. Then he opened with a 426 00:21:20,640 --> 00:21:22,840 Speaker 1: seventy seven at the valspar like I want to make 427 00:21:22,880 --> 00:21:25,920 Speaker 1: sure he's got his ducks in a row before I. 428 00:21:25,840 --> 00:21:28,400 Speaker 4: Back tough driving courses. 429 00:21:29,080 --> 00:21:29,679 Speaker 2: That's true. 430 00:21:29,760 --> 00:21:32,399 Speaker 1: That is true, and you know Thigala does spray it 431 00:21:32,400 --> 00:21:35,920 Speaker 1: around a little bit. Ryan Gerard seems like an interesting 432 00:21:35,960 --> 00:21:37,920 Speaker 1: value at forty seven to one. Not one of the 433 00:21:37,960 --> 00:21:40,600 Speaker 1: biggest hitters on tour, but he did finish ninth at 434 00:21:40,640 --> 00:21:45,320 Speaker 1: the Houston Opened last year, ranks twenty second, strokes gain total, 435 00:21:45,400 --> 00:21:48,040 Speaker 1: and he's at a very solid season at this point. 436 00:21:48,040 --> 00:21:51,400 Speaker 1: That includes a couple of second place finishes. What about 437 00:21:51,400 --> 00:21:54,720 Speaker 1: the other hoy Guard boy Rasmus fifth and driving distance 438 00:21:55,119 --> 00:21:59,040 Speaker 1: twelfth and strokes gain putting, So he's got the vomit 439 00:21:59,080 --> 00:22:02,560 Speaker 1: and putt it nomination working for him. Thirty second in 440 00:22:02,560 --> 00:22:05,240 Speaker 1: this event last year. I want to like him this week, 441 00:22:05,320 --> 00:22:08,800 Speaker 1: But what sort of scared me was that in another 442 00:22:08,840 --> 00:22:11,080 Speaker 1: recent event where big drivers have a leg off, the 443 00:22:11,080 --> 00:22:15,800 Speaker 1: Puerto Rico Open, Rasmus Hoygard missed the cut despite competing 444 00:22:15,840 --> 00:22:17,479 Speaker 1: against a weak field. 445 00:22:17,920 --> 00:22:20,880 Speaker 4: Yeah, he's he's been all over the place. Despite the stats, 446 00:22:20,880 --> 00:22:23,800 Speaker 4: the ancillary stats that we're looking at strokes gained, he 447 00:22:23,840 --> 00:22:26,720 Speaker 4: really hasn't done that well when it comes down to 448 00:22:26,920 --> 00:22:29,800 Speaker 4: crunch time in the weekends, or even if he makes 449 00:22:29,800 --> 00:22:31,440 Speaker 4: the weekend, it doesn't mean to make the weekend of 450 00:22:31,480 --> 00:22:33,639 Speaker 4: Puerto Rico. It's a huge red flag for me this week. 451 00:22:34,440 --> 00:22:37,320 Speaker 4: I actually there's another guy whose name is Rasmus that 452 00:22:37,359 --> 00:22:39,959 Speaker 4: I have higher than him on my board. I'm not 453 00:22:40,000 --> 00:22:43,320 Speaker 4: gonna say Rasmus is a bad play, but Rasmus Nierguard 454 00:22:43,359 --> 00:22:47,520 Speaker 4: Peterson's more highly rated in my model than Rasmus Hoyguard 455 00:22:47,720 --> 00:22:51,120 Speaker 4: and he's a lot farther down, a lot different value 456 00:22:51,680 --> 00:22:54,960 Speaker 4: of proposition for that one. So I'll think I think 457 00:22:55,000 --> 00:22:58,680 Speaker 4: I'll skip Rasmus in favor of Nikolai this week. 458 00:23:00,000 --> 00:23:02,720 Speaker 1: All right, two guys, I'm strongly considering betting this week. 459 00:23:02,840 --> 00:23:05,000 Speaker 1: You can tell me if you're with me or against 460 00:23:05,000 --> 00:23:08,720 Speaker 1: me on these Wyndham Clark fifty four to one. Big hitter, 461 00:23:09,040 --> 00:23:12,520 Speaker 1: very good around the green, the putter streaky, but if 462 00:23:12,520 --> 00:23:15,400 Speaker 1: he is sinking pots this week he could absolutely win. 463 00:23:16,200 --> 00:23:18,919 Speaker 1: Clark finished fifth here last year. He's been in poor 464 00:23:18,960 --> 00:23:21,959 Speaker 1: form lately, with nothing better than a thirty fifth place 465 00:23:22,040 --> 00:23:25,119 Speaker 1: finish in any of his last six starts. That's why 466 00:23:25,200 --> 00:23:28,680 Speaker 1: we're getting the price north of fifty to one. I'm 467 00:23:28,720 --> 00:23:31,720 Speaker 1: intrigued for sure by him. And then Steven Jaeger horse 468 00:23:31,760 --> 00:23:35,440 Speaker 1: for the course one here two years ago, eleventh last 469 00:23:35,520 --> 00:23:38,480 Speaker 1: year ninth year in twenty twenty two, also coming off 470 00:23:38,480 --> 00:23:41,600 Speaker 1: a seventh place finish at the Valspar. And you know 471 00:23:41,720 --> 00:23:44,080 Speaker 1: Jeger's a big hitter with a nice toucher on the greens. 472 00:23:44,320 --> 00:23:46,399 Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm seeing a lot of green with Wyndham Clark. 473 00:23:46,480 --> 00:23:48,880 Speaker 4: But then number one of the one of the things 474 00:23:48,880 --> 00:23:51,320 Speaker 4: I'm scoring the highest in my at least grading the 475 00:23:51,400 --> 00:23:54,320 Speaker 4: highest amomenal is par five scoring because you have to 476 00:23:54,359 --> 00:23:57,080 Speaker 4: really attack these par fives with how difficult the par 477 00:23:57,200 --> 00:24:00,520 Speaker 4: fours are, and he's one hundred and nineteen in this 478 00:24:00,560 --> 00:24:04,760 Speaker 4: field strokes gain par five huge red flag for Wyndham Clark. 479 00:24:05,080 --> 00:24:07,200 Speaker 4: Even though he's got a lot of green here, most 480 00:24:07,200 --> 00:24:09,600 Speaker 4: of those are towards the middle of the pack green 481 00:24:10,160 --> 00:24:12,159 Speaker 4: except for driving distance, which we know he is a 482 00:24:12,160 --> 00:24:16,480 Speaker 4: long hitter, but he's not taking advantage of any opportunities 483 00:24:16,520 --> 00:24:20,360 Speaker 4: this season. It's really it's hurting his results. I think 484 00:24:20,400 --> 00:24:22,359 Speaker 4: I'm still gonna wait on Wyndham Clark to see if 485 00:24:22,359 --> 00:24:24,600 Speaker 4: he heats up a little bit more because he's playing 486 00:24:24,720 --> 00:24:28,160 Speaker 4: terrible golf right now, and so I can't confidently go 487 00:24:28,200 --> 00:24:30,000 Speaker 4: and lay money on a guy who I haven't even 488 00:24:30,000 --> 00:24:32,680 Speaker 4: seen play well this season yet. Yaeger I'm a little 489 00:24:32,680 --> 00:24:35,120 Speaker 4: bit more interested in not quite as high as you are, 490 00:24:35,560 --> 00:24:39,080 Speaker 4: but yeah, he's he won just two years ago here 491 00:24:39,440 --> 00:24:42,760 Speaker 4: and he fits the course extremely well. As everybody is 492 00:24:42,800 --> 00:24:45,840 Speaker 4: gonna note. A lot of people are gonna be on Clark, 493 00:24:45,880 --> 00:24:47,639 Speaker 4: a lot of people are gonna be on Yeger, and 494 00:24:47,680 --> 00:24:52,080 Speaker 4: I'm seeing even more smoke for Pearson Cooty, which he's 495 00:24:52,119 --> 00:24:54,240 Speaker 4: okay in my model, he's up higher than some of 496 00:24:54,280 --> 00:24:58,440 Speaker 4: these other guys, but around the greens, Pierson Coody is scary. 497 00:24:58,600 --> 00:25:02,160 Speaker 4: One hundred and thirtieth strokes gained around the greens. That's 498 00:25:02,200 --> 00:25:03,720 Speaker 4: why he's not getting my bet. 499 00:25:05,080 --> 00:25:07,440 Speaker 2: Yeah, he's really been up and down lately too. 500 00:25:07,400 --> 00:25:11,280 Speaker 4: So he's streaky and if he misses the greens, he's 501 00:25:11,320 --> 00:25:12,040 Speaker 4: not fun to watch. 502 00:25:12,800 --> 00:25:13,640 Speaker 2: He's in trouble. 503 00:25:14,320 --> 00:25:14,480 Speaker 3: Now. 504 00:25:14,480 --> 00:25:17,720 Speaker 2: We'll talk long shots in just a moment, but first. 505 00:25:18,040 --> 00:25:21,400 Speaker 4: Track your bets, stay accountable and level up. By downloading 506 00:25:21,400 --> 00:25:24,639 Speaker 4: the Betting Pros app. With Sportsbooks Sync, you can automatically 507 00:25:24,680 --> 00:25:28,040 Speaker 4: track your bets across all major sports books in one spot. 508 00:25:28,520 --> 00:25:31,719 Speaker 4: Easily monitor your bet performance by sport and bet type, 509 00:25:31,920 --> 00:25:35,600 Speaker 4: including game picks, props, and parlays. Create your own custom 510 00:25:35,600 --> 00:25:39,920 Speaker 4: betting systems to find winning trends and profitable opportunities. New 511 00:25:40,000 --> 00:25:42,280 Speaker 4: users can get a six months of Betting Pros Premium 512 00:25:42,320 --> 00:25:45,040 Speaker 4: free with your first deposit and wager at one of 513 00:25:45,080 --> 00:25:48,719 Speaker 4: our for one of our partner sportsbooks. Learn more at 514 00:25:48,720 --> 00:25:50,919 Speaker 4: Bettingpros dot com slash Premium. 515 00:25:52,240 --> 00:25:54,800 Speaker 1: All right, let's talk long shots. Players with odds of 516 00:25:54,880 --> 00:25:56,080 Speaker 1: seventy to one or longer. 517 00:25:56,160 --> 00:25:58,080 Speaker 2: Give me some compelling Darth throws. 518 00:25:58,160 --> 00:26:01,080 Speaker 4: I got two for you, and and one's the guy 519 00:26:01,200 --> 00:26:03,560 Speaker 4: that I'm expecting to kind of come back into form 520 00:26:03,640 --> 00:26:07,400 Speaker 4: this week, and that's Willy Z. Will zalatoris eighty four 521 00:26:07,440 --> 00:26:10,800 Speaker 4: to one. Ball striking extraordinaire in the back, seems to 522 00:26:10,800 --> 00:26:13,800 Speaker 4: be okay, and he's been sinking some putts in his 523 00:26:13,880 --> 00:26:17,120 Speaker 4: starts this season. So give me Willizy at eighty four 524 00:26:17,160 --> 00:26:19,800 Speaker 4: to one odds. I think he's got the form, especially 525 00:26:19,840 --> 00:26:21,560 Speaker 4: if he gets off to a hot start on Thursday. 526 00:26:21,600 --> 00:26:23,720 Speaker 4: He's gonna be a fun first round leader. Bet for 527 00:26:23,760 --> 00:26:26,399 Speaker 4: me as well, Willy Z, because he's he tends to 528 00:26:26,440 --> 00:26:28,840 Speaker 4: be a hot starter in the first place, So I 529 00:26:28,840 --> 00:26:32,880 Speaker 4: think that the native Texan coming back with something to prove, 530 00:26:33,240 --> 00:26:35,399 Speaker 4: especially on a golf course that rewards his type of 531 00:26:35,440 --> 00:26:38,400 Speaker 4: ball striking. I love Willy Z and we're going back 532 00:26:38,440 --> 00:26:41,199 Speaker 4: to the well with our favorite Canadian by way of India, 533 00:26:41,560 --> 00:26:44,280 Speaker 4: Sedarshin Yellow Miraju at one hundred and fifteen to one 534 00:26:45,600 --> 00:26:48,800 Speaker 4: ball Striker's Paradise, Right, this is the first and second 535 00:26:48,840 --> 00:26:51,359 Speaker 4: shot golf course. And what did he do with the players? 536 00:26:51,400 --> 00:26:53,400 Speaker 4: He found all the fairways, he hit all the greens 537 00:26:53,440 --> 00:26:55,639 Speaker 4: and didn't make too many mistakes. That's gonna be the 538 00:26:55,720 --> 00:26:59,280 Speaker 4: kind of the same It's gonna be the same game 539 00:26:59,320 --> 00:27:02,800 Speaker 4: plan for Yellow Maraju. Maybe a little less strategy than 540 00:27:02,840 --> 00:27:05,440 Speaker 4: he had to do around the peate die track sawgrass, 541 00:27:05,880 --> 00:27:07,760 Speaker 4: but this is the same kind of place where you 542 00:27:07,800 --> 00:27:09,760 Speaker 4: just want to be down the fairway and hit some 543 00:27:09,800 --> 00:27:12,000 Speaker 4: good iron shots into these greens. That's the strength of 544 00:27:12,080 --> 00:27:15,840 Speaker 4: Yellow Maraju's game. And he's made four out of five 545 00:27:15,880 --> 00:27:18,159 Speaker 4: cuts this season. He's a rookie, he's here to stay. 546 00:27:18,640 --> 00:27:20,120 Speaker 4: He's got a lot of talent for a twenty four 547 00:27:20,200 --> 00:27:20,560 Speaker 4: year old. 548 00:27:21,880 --> 00:27:24,600 Speaker 1: I know Yellow Miraju's name now Bow, and I'm very 549 00:27:24,600 --> 00:27:28,760 Speaker 1: interested this week myself, at least a little bit intrigued 550 00:27:28,760 --> 00:27:32,200 Speaker 1: by Tony Fino at seventy two to one. Yes bad 551 00:27:32,280 --> 00:27:34,920 Speaker 1: year in twenty twenty five slow start in twenty twenty six, 552 00:27:35,000 --> 00:27:37,880 Speaker 1: but Fino's finished top twenty three of his last six events, 553 00:27:38,240 --> 00:27:40,960 Speaker 1: including an eighteenth last week at the Valspar. And he's 554 00:27:41,000 --> 00:27:43,679 Speaker 1: a great track record at Memorial Park. He won here 555 00:27:43,720 --> 00:27:46,760 Speaker 1: in twenty twenty two, finished second in twenty twenty four. 556 00:27:48,040 --> 00:27:51,160 Speaker 1: I can't ignore Gary Woodland's track record of this course either. 557 00:27:52,080 --> 00:27:55,560 Speaker 1: Last three Houston Open starts for Woodland ninth, twenty first 558 00:27:55,600 --> 00:27:58,240 Speaker 1: and second. Also had a pretty good week at the Valspar, 559 00:27:58,359 --> 00:28:03,520 Speaker 1: finishing fourteenth. He's and twenty to one. David Ford two 560 00:28:03,640 --> 00:28:06,960 Speaker 1: hundred and thirty to one. Couple of top twenties this year, 561 00:28:07,080 --> 00:28:09,800 Speaker 1: ranks inside the top fifty, and Stroke scanned off the tee. 562 00:28:09,960 --> 00:28:14,200 Speaker 1: Strokes ganed an approach and Strokes gained total bo Friend 563 00:28:14,280 --> 00:28:16,480 Speaker 1: of the Show Alejandro Toasty. 564 00:28:16,760 --> 00:28:19,840 Speaker 2: Yikes, he's finished. 565 00:28:19,480 --> 00:28:23,399 Speaker 1: Okay, So yes, Here's here's the interesting conundrum with Toasty. 566 00:28:23,400 --> 00:28:26,880 Speaker 1: He's finished second and fifth at the Houston Open. 567 00:28:26,760 --> 00:28:27,760 Speaker 2: The last two years. 568 00:28:27,800 --> 00:28:30,760 Speaker 1: Pretty good, right, and yet he's three hundred and sixty 569 00:28:30,800 --> 00:28:33,280 Speaker 1: to one, three hundred and sixty to one. Yes, his 570 00:28:33,400 --> 00:28:35,480 Speaker 1: season has gotten off to a terrible start. He missed 571 00:28:35,480 --> 00:28:37,560 Speaker 1: a cut in his first six PGA Tour events of 572 00:28:37,640 --> 00:28:40,800 Speaker 1: twenty twenty six, but he did finally break the misscut 573 00:28:40,800 --> 00:28:43,480 Speaker 1: streak last week at the Valspar, where he finished thirtieth. 574 00:28:45,000 --> 00:28:47,080 Speaker 1: That's enough daylight for me, bo, I think I'm back 575 00:28:47,120 --> 00:28:49,840 Speaker 1: in with the dart throw on Aleejandro toasty and one 576 00:28:49,920 --> 00:28:54,440 Speaker 1: last one at five hundred and fifty to one. Pontis Nyholm, 577 00:28:54,920 --> 00:28:59,320 Speaker 1: the young Swede, finished thirteenth at the Cognizant Classic, sixteenth 578 00:28:59,320 --> 00:29:01,640 Speaker 1: at the Porto Rico Go Open. He ranks twentieth in 579 00:29:01,720 --> 00:29:07,120 Speaker 1: driving distance, he can vomits, and he's starting to show 580 00:29:07,120 --> 00:29:09,760 Speaker 1: a pulse lately. So five hundred and fifty to one 581 00:29:09,920 --> 00:29:10,960 Speaker 1: it's worth a buck or two. 582 00:29:11,480 --> 00:29:14,200 Speaker 4: Yeah, it's a rare week where you have multiple guys 583 00:29:14,240 --> 00:29:15,760 Speaker 4: deeper than my deepest. 584 00:29:15,440 --> 00:29:19,560 Speaker 1: Guy, I know I'm going deep into the bag this week, Bo. 585 00:29:19,720 --> 00:29:22,120 Speaker 1: And now it's time for the hard rock Best Bets 586 00:29:22,160 --> 00:29:25,360 Speaker 1: of the Week, presented by hard Rock Bet. Here are 587 00:29:25,440 --> 00:29:27,040 Speaker 1: our favorite bets of the week. 588 00:29:27,080 --> 00:29:29,720 Speaker 2: Bo. My hard rock bet of the week is it's 589 00:29:29,800 --> 00:29:30,520 Speaker 2: Wyndham Clark. 590 00:29:30,920 --> 00:29:33,480 Speaker 1: I got him at sixty to one this morning on 591 00:29:33,600 --> 00:29:35,080 Speaker 1: hard rock Bet Illinois. 592 00:29:35,440 --> 00:29:36,840 Speaker 2: Who is your hard rock better the week? 593 00:29:36,840 --> 00:29:38,840 Speaker 4: I'm gonna go head to head with yours. I'm gonna 594 00:29:38,840 --> 00:29:42,480 Speaker 4: Go Sahiti Gala. Fifty nine to one is my hard 595 00:29:42,560 --> 00:29:44,600 Speaker 4: rock bet of the week. Let's go head to head 596 00:29:44,640 --> 00:29:47,920 Speaker 4: mid tier hard rock Bets of the week dueling Banjos. 597 00:29:48,640 --> 00:29:50,280 Speaker 4: I want a little bit more skin in the game 598 00:29:50,280 --> 00:29:54,040 Speaker 4: because honestly, the One and Dune's getting boring for my taste. 599 00:29:54,160 --> 00:29:59,800 Speaker 4: No offense, Hey, no, today's show is brought to you 600 00:30:00,120 --> 00:30:04,200 Speaker 4: are presenting sponsor hard Rock Bet, Florida's sportsbook. If your 601 00:30:04,200 --> 00:30:07,960 Speaker 4: bracket's already busted, you're definitely not alone. But don't worry. 602 00:30:08,120 --> 00:30:10,480 Speaker 4: You can still call the next picks up, big upset 603 00:30:10,680 --> 00:30:13,280 Speaker 4: and turn your picks into a payday on hard rock 604 00:30:13,320 --> 00:30:16,400 Speaker 4: Bet all tournament long. 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New sign ups 614 00:30:43,360 --> 00:30:45,320 Speaker 4: can double their winnings on their first ten bets with 615 00:30:45,360 --> 00:30:47,760 Speaker 4: a max of fifty dollars. That means if you would 616 00:30:47,760 --> 00:30:49,760 Speaker 4: have won a hundred bucks on your bet, now it's 617 00:30:49,800 --> 00:30:53,040 Speaker 4: two hundred. So don't sit on the bench. Download the 618 00:30:53,080 --> 00:30:55,960 Speaker 4: hard Rock Bet app today and let's get the party started. 619 00:30:56,160 --> 00:30:58,280 Speaker 3: Payble and bonus bets not a cash offer offered by 620 00:30:58,280 --> 00:31:00,400 Speaker 3: the Seminal Tribe of Florida and Florida offered by the 621 00:31:00,400 --> 00:31:03,080 Speaker 3: Seminal hard Rock Digital LLC in other states must be 622 00:31:03,120 --> 00:31:07,880 Speaker 3: twenty one plus in physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, 623 00:31:07,920 --> 00:31:11,080 Speaker 3: New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, or Virginia. Play terms and conditions apply. 624 00:31:11,120 --> 00:31:13,680 Speaker 3: Concerned about gambling in Florida, call one eight three three 625 00:31:13,680 --> 00:31:16,080 Speaker 3: play wise. In Indiana, if you are someone you know 626 00:31:16,120 --> 00:31:18,440 Speaker 3: as a gambling problem, laws help called one eight hundred 627 00:31:18,480 --> 00:31:21,040 Speaker 3: and nine with it gambling problem called one hundred gambler 628 00:31:21,080 --> 00:31:24,640 Speaker 3: in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia. 629 00:31:24,840 --> 00:31:27,480 Speaker 2: What does the rest of your early betting card look like? Though? 630 00:31:27,520 --> 00:31:29,760 Speaker 2: In addition to mister Thigala. 631 00:31:29,360 --> 00:31:32,560 Speaker 4: So I have Scotty and Brooksy top ten parlay plus 632 00:31:32,600 --> 00:31:35,479 Speaker 4: fourteen hundred. I have Chris Gottarup at twenty five to one, 633 00:31:35,560 --> 00:31:39,000 Speaker 4: Nikolai Hoygard thirty three to one, Michael Thorp Bjornsen thirty 634 00:31:39,040 --> 00:31:41,640 Speaker 4: seven to one, Saiiti Gala fifty nine to one, will 635 00:31:41,640 --> 00:31:45,960 Speaker 4: Azala Taurus eighty four to one, and Sedarsan Yellamraju one 636 00:31:46,040 --> 00:31:47,360 Speaker 4: hundred fifteen to one. 637 00:31:49,240 --> 00:31:51,440 Speaker 1: So for me, in addition to Wyndham Clark, I am 638 00:31:51,520 --> 00:31:53,880 Speaker 1: taking and by the way, I'm staying away from the 639 00:31:54,160 --> 00:31:59,720 Speaker 1: uh everyone butt Scheffler group. Don't need that betting against 640 00:31:59,760 --> 00:32:02,560 Speaker 1: s guy this week. So I'm taking Brooks Keepkat twenty 641 00:32:02,640 --> 00:32:05,400 Speaker 1: nine to one, Nikolai Hoygard at thirty three to one, 642 00:32:05,480 --> 00:32:09,560 Speaker 1: Steven Jaeger at sixty six to one, Sedarshan Yellamraju at 643 00:32:09,560 --> 00:32:12,520 Speaker 1: one hundred and fifteen to one, Alejandro Tosti at three 644 00:32:12,640 --> 00:32:14,400 Speaker 1: hundred and sixty to one. And I want to sprinkle 645 00:32:14,440 --> 00:32:17,640 Speaker 1: in some top ten on him at plus seventeen fifty 646 00:32:18,000 --> 00:32:20,640 Speaker 1: and a top twenty bet at plus seven forty and 647 00:32:20,760 --> 00:32:26,200 Speaker 1: Pontes Nihom I think approximately two dollars at five hundred 648 00:32:26,200 --> 00:32:29,960 Speaker 1: and fifty to one with a top twenty bet On Nihome. 649 00:32:29,600 --> 00:32:31,040 Speaker 2: At plus eight ninety. 650 00:32:32,880 --> 00:32:36,600 Speaker 1: Now for the one and done competition Bowhead Jacob Bridgeman. 651 00:32:36,760 --> 00:32:39,880 Speaker 1: Last week he finished tied for fourteenth, good for one 652 00:32:39,960 --> 00:32:42,640 Speaker 1: hundred and sixty one thousand, five hundred and twenty five dollars. 653 00:32:42,840 --> 00:32:45,800 Speaker 1: I had Xander Schaffli. He tied for fourth, which netted 654 00:32:45,840 --> 00:32:48,160 Speaker 1: me three hundred and eighty two thoy nine hundred and 655 00:32:48,200 --> 00:32:51,040 Speaker 1: fifty eight dollars. I chipped away at Bo's big lead, 656 00:32:51,480 --> 00:32:53,160 Speaker 1: but still have a long way to go. Bo is 657 00:32:53,200 --> 00:32:56,280 Speaker 1: at about five point seven million in winnings. I'm at 658 00:32:56,280 --> 00:32:59,720 Speaker 1: about two point seven million. Your honors this week. 659 00:32:59,560 --> 00:33:01,400 Speaker 4: Bo, I'm going with Chris Gotterup. 660 00:33:02,120 --> 00:33:02,880 Speaker 2: Chris got her up. 661 00:33:02,920 --> 00:33:06,480 Speaker 1: It is I am going to go with the defending champ, 662 00:33:06,840 --> 00:33:10,520 Speaker 1: Chalky mister Minwu Lee got her up versus Minwu. 663 00:33:11,000 --> 00:33:13,720 Speaker 2: And that's all for this week's Betting PROSPGA podcast. 664 00:33:13,760 --> 00:33:16,040 Speaker 1: We hope you'll be back next week when bow and 665 00:33:16,080 --> 00:33:18,160 Speaker 1: I preview the Valero Texas Open. 666 00:33:18,760 --> 00:33:20,080 Speaker 2: Until then, so. 667 00:33:20,160 --> 00:33:23,320 Speaker 5: Long everyone, thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. 668 00:33:23,520 --> 00:33:25,880 Speaker 5: If you love the show, the best freeway to support 669 00:33:25,960 --> 00:33:28,840 Speaker 5: us is by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts 670 00:33:28,960 --> 00:33:31,960 Speaker 5: or Spotify. Follow us on x and TikTok at Betting 671 00:33:32,000 --> 00:33:35,800 Speaker 5: Pros and Instagram at Betting Pros NFL. Also subscribe to 672 00:33:35,840 --> 00:33:50,280 Speaker 5: our YouTube channel at YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros.