1 00:00:02,920 --> 00:00:07,720 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:09,760 --> 00:00:13,280 Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch 3 00:00:13,360 --> 00:00:16,279 Speaker 2: Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Eppo CarPlay and 4 00:00:16,280 --> 00:00:19,439 Speaker 2: then Roudoto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand 5 00:00:19,480 --> 00:00:23,600 Speaker 2: wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:25,600 --> 00:00:28,080 Speaker 3: We turn to the poll, Kayley, this is a pretty important, 7 00:00:28,960 --> 00:00:31,760 Speaker 3: a roughly monthly drop that we're doing right now with 8 00:00:31,800 --> 00:00:34,320 Speaker 3: our partners at Morning Consult. This is the Bloomberg Swing 9 00:00:34,360 --> 00:00:38,320 Speaker 3: State Pole, seven states. Joe Biden loses them all to 10 00:00:38,360 --> 00:00:40,000 Speaker 3: Donald Trump. If that election were held. 11 00:00:39,880 --> 00:00:44,159 Speaker 4: Today, indeed, on average by five points, Trump would be victorious, 12 00:00:44,200 --> 00:00:47,800 Speaker 4: and even Joe if you add third parties into the mix, 13 00:00:48,080 --> 00:00:52,560 Speaker 4: candidates like RFK Junior, Yeah, Trump still wins. 14 00:00:52,600 --> 00:00:54,040 Speaker 1: Pretty fascinating stuff here. 15 00:00:54,200 --> 00:00:56,480 Speaker 3: We saw a bit of a array of light for 16 00:00:56,560 --> 00:01:00,240 Speaker 3: Joe Biden in Michigan. He's still losing the state a 17 00:01:00,240 --> 00:01:03,680 Speaker 3: small margin though, And the big headline, Kaylee, is too old. 18 00:01:04,760 --> 00:01:08,600 Speaker 3: That's different than really old. You might think he's really 19 00:01:08,640 --> 00:01:11,320 Speaker 3: too old means he shouldn't be the president, right, he's 20 00:01:11,319 --> 00:01:12,400 Speaker 3: too old to have the job. 21 00:01:12,800 --> 00:01:13,280 Speaker 5: Well, this is. 22 00:01:13,280 --> 00:01:15,600 Speaker 4: What's interesting is eight and ten voters in this poll 23 00:01:15,640 --> 00:01:18,120 Speaker 4: did say they find him to be too old, But 24 00:01:18,280 --> 00:01:21,160 Speaker 4: even among those who say they plan to vote for Biden, 25 00:01:21,600 --> 00:01:24,080 Speaker 4: seven and ten said he fits that description. So I 26 00:01:24,080 --> 00:01:25,959 Speaker 4: guess they'd still think he's too old, but they'll vote 27 00:01:26,000 --> 00:01:28,760 Speaker 4: for him anyway. This is probably a question best put 28 00:01:28,959 --> 00:01:31,280 Speaker 4: to Eli Yoakley. He was joining us from our partner 29 00:01:31,480 --> 00:01:34,480 Speaker 4: on this Pole Morning consult. He's a US politics analyst there. 30 00:01:34,480 --> 00:01:37,360 Speaker 4: So Eli, should our takeaway here be that they may 31 00:01:37,600 --> 00:01:39,680 Speaker 4: find him old, but a lot of them still plan 32 00:01:39,880 --> 00:01:43,119 Speaker 4: to vote for him. Just how problematic does this poll 33 00:01:43,160 --> 00:01:44,720 Speaker 4: look for the Biden campaign? 34 00:01:46,000 --> 00:01:48,640 Speaker 6: Well, I think it's a big problem. Nobody wants to 35 00:01:48,680 --> 00:01:52,400 Speaker 6: be called too old. Clearly, that's weighing on the president, 36 00:01:52,600 --> 00:01:54,680 Speaker 6: and I mean even in our national track, and this 37 00:01:54,760 --> 00:01:57,840 Speaker 6: is weighing on him more than it is Donald Trump. 38 00:01:57,960 --> 00:02:00,600 Speaker 6: Nationally a good chunk of voters, but half think Donald 39 00:02:00,600 --> 00:02:03,080 Speaker 6: Trump's too old, but they're far more likely to say 40 00:02:03,160 --> 00:02:06,480 Speaker 6: that about Joe Biden. What we did in this survey 41 00:02:06,680 --> 00:02:09,119 Speaker 6: was we kind of forced voters to pick. We said, 42 00:02:09,120 --> 00:02:10,760 Speaker 6: do you think Donald Trump is too old? Do you 43 00:02:10,800 --> 00:02:12,760 Speaker 6: think Joe Biden is too old? Do you think they're 44 00:02:12,760 --> 00:02:16,359 Speaker 6: both too old? And where voters are inclined to go 45 00:02:16,600 --> 00:02:19,799 Speaker 6: is Joe Biden. Clearly this is something that's a big 46 00:02:20,200 --> 00:02:24,080 Speaker 6: problem for him. Now. One ray of hope for him 47 00:02:24,200 --> 00:02:27,040 Speaker 6: here is the fact that a good shot, like four 48 00:02:27,080 --> 00:02:30,400 Speaker 6: and ten voters said they think both of them are 49 00:02:30,440 --> 00:02:34,080 Speaker 6: too old, and that might give Biden a bit of 50 00:02:34,120 --> 00:02:37,480 Speaker 6: an opening as we're moving forward. Donald Trump has been 51 00:02:37,560 --> 00:02:40,640 Speaker 6: campaigning for president for the Republican nomination for a while now, 52 00:02:40,960 --> 00:02:43,200 Speaker 6: but he's not as dominant as he will be in 53 00:02:43,240 --> 00:02:46,800 Speaker 6: the coming months as he takes the mantle likely of 54 00:02:46,840 --> 00:02:50,400 Speaker 6: the Republican nominee. I think you saw President Biden on 55 00:02:50,680 --> 00:02:53,799 Speaker 6: a late night TV trying to flag to voters that 56 00:02:54,680 --> 00:02:58,320 Speaker 6: the for president is pretty old too, and so I 57 00:02:58,320 --> 00:03:01,000 Speaker 6: think the president, the current resident, might be landing on 58 00:03:01,000 --> 00:03:03,440 Speaker 6: some of these other descriptors like dangerous, to try to 59 00:03:03,480 --> 00:03:05,560 Speaker 6: remind a lot of these voters from twenty twenty why 60 00:03:05,560 --> 00:03:07,480 Speaker 6: they didn't like Donald Trump in the first place. 61 00:03:08,440 --> 00:03:10,720 Speaker 3: Well, talk to me about that, Eli, It's great to 62 00:03:10,720 --> 00:03:13,200 Speaker 3: have you back, by the way. I don't know what 63 00:03:13,200 --> 00:03:15,560 Speaker 3: would you rather be? Too old or too dangerous? Too 64 00:03:15,639 --> 00:03:19,320 Speaker 3: dangerous seems like that might be a bigger problem. 65 00:03:20,639 --> 00:03:23,079 Speaker 6: I mean, whatever we've been talking about these surveys, I 66 00:03:23,120 --> 00:03:26,240 Speaker 6: mean the way we've been thinking about the election isn't 67 00:03:26,280 --> 00:03:30,760 Speaker 6: necessarily about issues. I mean, it's almost about senility versus criminality, 68 00:03:31,120 --> 00:03:33,080 Speaker 6: and which of those two things is going to matter 69 00:03:33,160 --> 00:03:37,400 Speaker 6: more to the electorate. Right now, Donald Trump has an edge, 70 00:03:37,480 --> 00:03:39,640 Speaker 6: but I'm going to bang the hammer on the nails 71 00:03:39,680 --> 00:03:42,920 Speaker 6: so many times. The American people are not tuned into 72 00:03:42,960 --> 00:03:46,120 Speaker 6: Donald Trump like they used to be. And the coming 73 00:03:46,160 --> 00:03:48,880 Speaker 6: campaign and the job of the Biden campaign in the 74 00:03:48,880 --> 00:03:51,840 Speaker 6: coming months, is going to be able to remind voters 75 00:03:51,920 --> 00:03:54,800 Speaker 6: why they didn't like Donald Trump four years ago. And 76 00:03:54,920 --> 00:03:57,160 Speaker 6: I think what we're sitting on the legal front, on 77 00:03:57,320 --> 00:04:00,640 Speaker 6: the rest of danger bucket here is is going to 78 00:04:00,680 --> 00:04:03,200 Speaker 6: take center stage in the coming months as Donald Trump 79 00:04:03,320 --> 00:04:07,360 Speaker 6: is that trial after trial defending himself from a range 80 00:04:07,440 --> 00:04:10,880 Speaker 6: of serious felony charges, and not to mention the kind 81 00:04:10,920 --> 00:04:13,840 Speaker 6: of talk he's doing on issues like NATO kind of 82 00:04:13,920 --> 00:04:16,560 Speaker 6: changing the America's place in the world. There's a good 83 00:04:16,680 --> 00:04:19,560 Speaker 6: chunk of the elector that is landing isolations, but it's 84 00:04:19,640 --> 00:04:23,600 Speaker 6: not everybody. It's not even everybody in the Republican Party. 85 00:04:23,680 --> 00:04:26,279 Speaker 6: And we saw that stick out in the open ends questions. 86 00:04:26,520 --> 00:04:29,360 Speaker 6: The very first thing we ask is what voters are 87 00:04:29,760 --> 00:04:33,400 Speaker 6: seeing reading or hearing about these candidates, and without any prompting, 88 00:04:33,400 --> 00:04:37,440 Speaker 6: a good number of folks listed NATO and so people 89 00:04:37,520 --> 00:04:39,640 Speaker 6: are starting to take note of some of these things, 90 00:04:39,760 --> 00:04:42,080 Speaker 6: but it's just not as widespread as the Biden campaign 91 00:04:42,120 --> 00:04:44,720 Speaker 6: needs it to be in orders to damage Donald Trump 92 00:04:45,400 --> 00:04:46,200 Speaker 6: head of November. 93 00:04:48,120 --> 00:04:50,560 Speaker 4: Well, as we think about the NATO question, and as 94 00:04:50,600 --> 00:04:53,719 Speaker 4: we've considered the US relationship with our allies, how Congress 95 00:04:53,960 --> 00:04:56,000 Speaker 4: are members of it? For example of view that a 96 00:04:56,000 --> 00:04:57,640 Speaker 4: lot of them say, we need to be focusing greater 97 00:04:57,720 --> 00:05:01,120 Speaker 4: attention on issues here at home on our own borders. 98 00:05:01,160 --> 00:05:03,480 Speaker 4: And on that point, Eli, both Donald Trump and Joe 99 00:05:03,520 --> 00:05:06,279 Speaker 4: Biden are making trips to the border today, and that's 100 00:05:06,320 --> 00:05:08,599 Speaker 4: something that came up in the poll the issue of immigration. 101 00:05:08,720 --> 00:05:12,039 Speaker 4: A majority we found still hold Biden and Democrats and 102 00:05:12,080 --> 00:05:14,599 Speaker 4: responsible for the migrant surge we are seeing there. But 103 00:05:14,640 --> 00:05:17,520 Speaker 4: I found it interesting blame for congressional Republicans and the 104 00:05:17,560 --> 00:05:22,840 Speaker 4: Trump administration went up five percentage points. Is that because 105 00:05:22,880 --> 00:05:25,680 Speaker 4: the border bill tanked in Congress? Is that telling in 106 00:05:25,720 --> 00:05:28,680 Speaker 4: some way that voters recognize the role Republicans played in that? 107 00:05:29,960 --> 00:05:30,200 Speaker 7: Yeah? 108 00:05:30,240 --> 00:05:33,720 Speaker 6: I mean what we're seeing nationally is that more voters 109 00:05:33,760 --> 00:05:36,400 Speaker 6: than ever since we started tracking sea crisis at the 110 00:05:36,440 --> 00:05:40,400 Speaker 6: US Mexico border. As as more voters have seen the 111 00:05:40,440 --> 00:05:45,040 Speaker 6: economy improving a bit, more voters are listing immigration as 112 00:05:45,040 --> 00:05:49,200 Speaker 6: their number one issue in the twenty twenty four elections. 113 00:05:49,560 --> 00:05:53,640 Speaker 6: And as this process in Washington has played out, what 114 00:05:53,720 --> 00:05:57,839 Speaker 6: we have noticed is fewer voters are blaming foreign conditions, 115 00:05:57,880 --> 00:06:03,520 Speaker 6: economic conditions, or and more are blaming Washington and Joe 116 00:06:03,560 --> 00:06:07,160 Speaker 6: Biden and congressional Democrats heed the bulk of that blame, 117 00:06:07,200 --> 00:06:09,919 Speaker 6: but it's not just them. Since we did this last survey, 118 00:06:10,040 --> 00:06:14,280 Speaker 6: since this bipartisan border deal fell apart on Capitol Hill, 119 00:06:14,520 --> 00:06:16,640 Speaker 6: it does appear that some voters are taking note that 120 00:06:16,720 --> 00:06:20,560 Speaker 6: Republicans are part of the problem too. It's not a lot, 121 00:06:20,839 --> 00:06:23,440 Speaker 6: but it's some. It's about one in five voters now, 122 00:06:23,480 --> 00:06:27,000 Speaker 6: that's up five points about congressional Republicans. Some voters are 123 00:06:27,080 --> 00:06:30,040 Speaker 6: blaming the Trump administration more than they were a while ago. 124 00:06:30,480 --> 00:06:32,600 Speaker 6: And you know this is happening in Arizona, places that 125 00:06:32,640 --> 00:06:34,599 Speaker 6: are close to the border, but also across the swing 126 00:06:34,640 --> 00:06:35,159 Speaker 6: state map. 127 00:06:36,800 --> 00:06:37,400 Speaker 1: Fascinating. 128 00:06:38,160 --> 00:06:41,360 Speaker 3: I was talking to our own Michael McKee earlier ELI 129 00:06:41,480 --> 00:06:44,400 Speaker 3: about something called the observer effect. I know it's something 130 00:06:44,440 --> 00:06:46,960 Speaker 3: that you posters are very well aware of the act 131 00:06:46,960 --> 00:06:50,400 Speaker 3: of observing something can frequently change the way we look 132 00:06:50,440 --> 00:06:53,320 Speaker 3: at it and therefore polling results. If you keep asking 133 00:06:53,360 --> 00:06:56,800 Speaker 3: people if Joe Biden is too old, they're going to 134 00:06:56,920 --> 00:06:58,360 Speaker 3: keep saying he's too old. 135 00:06:58,200 --> 00:07:02,160 Speaker 6: Right, yeah, yeah, that makes sense. And part of that 136 00:07:02,320 --> 00:07:04,880 Speaker 6: is that he is old. Like people know that they're 137 00:07:04,920 --> 00:07:08,800 Speaker 6: not dumb. They know that the president is in his eighties. 138 00:07:08,839 --> 00:07:12,280 Speaker 6: He has slips on TV from time to time, there's 139 00:07:12,360 --> 00:07:16,760 Speaker 6: reporting coming out about him that's not so good. The 140 00:07:16,880 --> 00:07:19,000 Speaker 6: question we're going to be watching is Donald Trump has 141 00:07:19,040 --> 00:07:22,920 Speaker 6: slips too. I mean, he's referred to running against President Obama, 142 00:07:22,920 --> 00:07:25,560 Speaker 6: who's not been in the White House since twenty twenty, 143 00:07:26,200 --> 00:07:31,000 Speaker 6: since twenty sixteen. He's referred to Nicki Haley as the 144 00:07:31,040 --> 00:07:34,360 Speaker 6: Speaker of the House on January sixth. These things are 145 00:07:34,400 --> 00:07:38,240 Speaker 6: not so salient right now, but as more and more 146 00:07:38,280 --> 00:07:40,360 Speaker 6: people tune into this, I mean a lot of voters do. 147 00:07:40,720 --> 00:07:43,200 Speaker 6: At least a few weeks ago, we're so sure that 148 00:07:43,280 --> 00:07:45,120 Speaker 6: Donald Trump was going to be the nominee for the 149 00:07:45,200 --> 00:07:48,400 Speaker 6: Republican Party. People are not paying attention to this, like 150 00:07:48,480 --> 00:07:51,920 Speaker 6: we are here in Washington, and so when Donald Trump 151 00:07:52,000 --> 00:07:54,480 Speaker 6: takes center stage. In the coming months, he's doing his rallies, 152 00:07:54,520 --> 00:07:57,520 Speaker 6: He's showing up in communities in some of these swing states. 153 00:07:58,080 --> 00:07:59,960 Speaker 6: It's going to be a reality check for him whether 154 00:08:00,080 --> 00:08:03,960 Speaker 6: voters see him as tool just likely need President Biden. 155 00:08:05,840 --> 00:08:07,560 Speaker 4: Yeah, and of course Joe. A lot of this will 156 00:08:07,560 --> 00:08:10,000 Speaker 4: probably depend on whether or not Trump is a convicted 157 00:08:10,000 --> 00:08:12,040 Speaker 4: felon as we get closer to the election. 158 00:08:11,960 --> 00:08:14,000 Speaker 1: Which is something else our polling has. 159 00:08:13,760 --> 00:08:16,640 Speaker 4: And indicates a lot of these swing state voters would 160 00:08:16,680 --> 00:08:17,720 Speaker 4: not in fact vote. 161 00:08:17,480 --> 00:08:18,880 Speaker 1: For him in the case of a conviction. 162 00:08:19,000 --> 00:08:20,800 Speaker 3: The number went up in case of jail time, which 163 00:08:20,840 --> 00:08:23,280 Speaker 3: is looking pretty unlikely after that Supreme Court ruling yesterday. 164 00:08:23,360 --> 00:08:23,520 Speaker 8: Yep. 165 00:08:23,600 --> 00:08:26,040 Speaker 4: So it's something we will continue to follow in this poll. Again, 166 00:08:26,040 --> 00:08:28,200 Speaker 4: we're doing in almost every single month, and we'll be 167 00:08:28,240 --> 00:08:31,040 Speaker 4: speaking to Eli Oaky almost every single month for that reason, 168 00:08:31,360 --> 00:08:33,800 Speaker 4: US politics analyst at Morning Consult. Thank you so much, 169 00:08:33,840 --> 00:08:35,599 Speaker 4: Eli for joining us. 170 00:08:37,760 --> 00:08:41,160 Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens 171 00:08:41,280 --> 00:08:44,280 Speaker 2: just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then 172 00:08:44,400 --> 00:08:46,960 Speaker 2: roud Oro with a Bloomberg Business app. You can also 173 00:08:47,040 --> 00:08:50,559 Speaker 2: listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, 174 00:08:50,920 --> 00:08:55,000 Speaker 2: Just Say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 175 00:08:55,880 --> 00:08:57,880 Speaker 1: So a big day for Donald Trump yesterday. 176 00:08:58,120 --> 00:09:00,520 Speaker 3: This is something that we found out live five o'clock 177 00:09:00,640 --> 00:09:03,360 Speaker 3: right at the top of Balance of Power, the late 178 00:09:03,520 --> 00:09:07,079 Speaker 3: edition news from the Supreme Court. It's decided to take 179 00:09:07,160 --> 00:09:09,559 Speaker 3: up this immunity case and that means that it will 180 00:09:09,720 --> 00:09:13,640 Speaker 3: hold off. It will delay the trial Jacksmith's trial over 181 00:09:13,640 --> 00:09:19,000 Speaker 3: the January sixth case here in Washington for some many months, potentially, 182 00:09:19,040 --> 00:09:20,800 Speaker 3: it depends how long they take to rule. And that's 183 00:09:20,800 --> 00:09:24,120 Speaker 3: why I'm glad to say Ty Cobb is with us today. 184 00:09:24,120 --> 00:09:26,640 Speaker 3: It's always a fascinating conversation with the former White House 185 00:09:26,679 --> 00:09:30,480 Speaker 3: Special Council who are spent time at the Justice Department, 186 00:09:31,200 --> 00:09:32,920 Speaker 3: and Ty, it's great to have you back with us, 187 00:09:32,960 --> 00:09:35,480 Speaker 3: a veteran of the Trump White House. What does this 188 00:09:35,679 --> 00:09:38,800 Speaker 3: mean for the trial? First of all, Ty, will there 189 00:09:38,840 --> 00:09:41,160 Speaker 3: be room for it to happen before the election. 190 00:09:41,880 --> 00:09:43,760 Speaker 7: Joe, I don't think so. Nice to be back with you. 191 00:09:45,000 --> 00:09:51,520 Speaker 7: The Court's action, while it accelerates the Supreme Court consideration 192 00:09:52,240 --> 00:09:56,280 Speaker 7: of the issue, will definitely delay the trial at least 193 00:09:57,679 --> 00:10:02,120 Speaker 7: two to four months and quite likely, you know, four 194 00:10:02,160 --> 00:10:06,440 Speaker 7: more months. So that doesn't really give Judge Chutkin much 195 00:10:06,480 --> 00:10:10,439 Speaker 7: time to schedule the case prior to the election, and 196 00:10:10,600 --> 00:10:13,960 Speaker 7: I don't see how that she can't. That doesn't mean that, 197 00:10:14,559 --> 00:10:17,480 Speaker 7: you know, it's impossible, but I really think it's highly 198 00:10:17,559 --> 00:10:21,280 Speaker 7: unlikely that we'll see a trial pre election. So that 199 00:10:21,520 --> 00:10:24,760 Speaker 7: seems that definitely, that definitely is to Trump's advantage. On 200 00:10:24,800 --> 00:10:28,040 Speaker 7: the other hand, you know, the you know, people that 201 00:10:28,240 --> 00:10:31,160 Speaker 7: characterize this as a win or you know whatever, it's 202 00:10:31,160 --> 00:10:35,080 Speaker 7: definitely favorable for Trump, but he really didn't win anything yesterday. 203 00:10:35,120 --> 00:10:37,960 Speaker 7: It's just that the Court is gonna have the have 204 00:10:38,040 --> 00:10:41,120 Speaker 7: the last word on this. There are many reasons that 205 00:10:41,160 --> 00:10:43,960 Speaker 7: the Court might want to do that. It's probably one 206 00:10:44,000 --> 00:10:46,480 Speaker 7: of the most serious issues in the two hundred and 207 00:10:46,480 --> 00:10:49,559 Speaker 7: fifty years of our republic that's ever gotten to the Court. 208 00:10:49,920 --> 00:10:54,880 Speaker 7: It involves the cores foundational element of our form of government, 209 00:10:54,880 --> 00:10:59,280 Speaker 7: which is separation and powers, and it's a it's a 210 00:10:59,320 --> 00:11:03,240 Speaker 7: never before considered issue. So I don't think people should, 211 00:11:03,600 --> 00:11:06,360 Speaker 7: you know, view the granting absurd as somehow you know, 212 00:11:06,440 --> 00:11:09,520 Speaker 7: a part is an issue, it's a it's it's exactly 213 00:11:09,559 --> 00:11:11,800 Speaker 7: the type of issue that should go to the Supreme Court, 214 00:11:11,880 --> 00:11:14,240 Speaker 7: and the Supreme Court should be the final word on 215 00:11:14,240 --> 00:11:16,079 Speaker 7: On the other hand, they didn't have to do it, 216 00:11:16,679 --> 00:11:19,480 Speaker 7: And I think that's what frustrates a lot of observers 217 00:11:19,480 --> 00:11:22,760 Speaker 7: like myself, because I think there was plenty of time 218 00:11:22,800 --> 00:11:25,200 Speaker 7: for the court to play clean up when and if 219 00:11:25,240 --> 00:11:27,680 Speaker 7: Trump is convicted, as they would definitely get a second 220 00:11:27,720 --> 00:11:28,600 Speaker 7: bite at this apple. 221 00:11:30,559 --> 00:11:31,439 Speaker 1: Isn't that something? 222 00:11:31,559 --> 00:11:35,320 Speaker 3: So with that said, is it possible this trial could 223 00:11:35,360 --> 00:11:40,040 Speaker 3: get underway and be underway when people vote in November? 224 00:11:40,800 --> 00:11:43,360 Speaker 7: So that's certainly possible, but I just think it's highly 225 00:11:43,440 --> 00:11:47,840 Speaker 7: unlikely and impractical. It is also conceivable that the trial 226 00:11:47,840 --> 00:11:51,200 Speaker 7: could start the week after the election. You know, certainly 227 00:11:51,240 --> 00:11:55,480 Speaker 7: if Trump loses, you know, there would be no impediment 228 00:11:55,520 --> 00:11:59,880 Speaker 7: to that, and it's and if he wins, you know, 229 00:12:00,000 --> 00:12:03,840 Speaker 7: there's no real legal doctrine that prohibits starting the trial 230 00:12:03,960 --> 00:12:06,480 Speaker 7: in On the other hand, I think there would be 231 00:12:06,520 --> 00:12:10,680 Speaker 7: another post of issues if he was the president elect 232 00:12:11,440 --> 00:12:13,840 Speaker 7: that would bounce up and down to the Supreme Court 233 00:12:13,880 --> 00:12:17,400 Speaker 7: again and delay it well into his term should he win. 234 00:12:19,000 --> 00:12:22,800 Speaker 3: Well, that's a very real view from ty Cobb. If 235 00:12:22,800 --> 00:12:27,400 Speaker 3: he is in fact elected, couldn't he just fire everybody 236 00:12:27,400 --> 00:12:30,280 Speaker 3: and defund these cases to make them go away? 237 00:12:31,120 --> 00:12:33,200 Speaker 7: Well, so he didn't have to really fire anybody. He 238 00:12:33,280 --> 00:12:36,040 Speaker 7: just has to appoint somebody who is willing to be 239 00:12:36,120 --> 00:12:38,920 Speaker 7: his shill of the Justice Department and dismiss the cases. 240 00:12:39,960 --> 00:12:42,840 Speaker 7: And yes, that's example as that do. Yeah, it's exactly 241 00:12:42,880 --> 00:12:43,280 Speaker 7: what we do. 242 00:12:43,440 --> 00:12:46,040 Speaker 3: So we're left in a world in it seems like 243 00:12:46,920 --> 00:12:49,280 Speaker 3: where Alvin Bragg is going to have the last say, 244 00:12:49,360 --> 00:12:51,400 Speaker 3: that might be the only trial the hush money case 245 00:12:51,440 --> 00:12:53,280 Speaker 3: in New York before this election. 246 00:12:53,960 --> 00:12:57,040 Speaker 7: And it's the only case unfortunately that fills trump hand. 247 00:12:57,200 --> 00:13:02,120 Speaker 7: Trump's hand when he argues political persecution and you know, uh, 248 00:13:02,679 --> 00:13:05,800 Speaker 7: prosecutors out to get him. Bragg ran on the on 249 00:13:05,840 --> 00:13:08,960 Speaker 7: the promise to get Trump, and you know, most legal 250 00:13:09,000 --> 00:13:12,280 Speaker 7: scholars think this case is you know, an incredibly distorted 251 00:13:12,360 --> 00:13:15,080 Speaker 7: use of the statute and very weak, and it's certainly 252 00:13:15,120 --> 00:13:17,640 Speaker 7: not going to lead to his imprisonment. So I think 253 00:13:17,640 --> 00:13:21,720 Speaker 7: we're about to have you know, Trump on the courthouse 254 00:13:21,760 --> 00:13:25,120 Speaker 7: steps morning and night for you know, a month, and 255 00:13:25,400 --> 00:13:26,719 Speaker 7: that doesn't do anybody any good. 256 00:13:28,559 --> 00:13:30,520 Speaker 3: You know him better than most people, or you did, 257 00:13:31,080 --> 00:13:34,280 Speaker 3: Ty Cobb. Can he actually spend that to his advantage 258 00:13:34,320 --> 00:13:37,560 Speaker 3: the way he has in the last couple months, making 259 00:13:37,600 --> 00:13:40,040 Speaker 3: this a fundraiser and a way to get on TV. 260 00:13:39,920 --> 00:13:42,760 Speaker 7: Every day most certainly, I mean, he'll get a lot 261 00:13:42,760 --> 00:13:45,200 Speaker 7: of free coverage and uh, you know it works to 262 00:13:45,320 --> 00:13:48,480 Speaker 7: his his advantage. And you know, there's there won't be 263 00:13:48,520 --> 00:13:53,160 Speaker 7: a single new fact presented that anybody who hasn't followed 264 00:13:53,160 --> 00:13:57,760 Speaker 7: this for eight years or six years since this payment happened. 265 00:13:59,760 --> 00:14:04,719 Speaker 3: Does And no, I realized this isn't a ruling specifically 266 00:14:04,720 --> 00:14:06,640 Speaker 3: in his favor, as you said on the outset. 267 00:14:06,679 --> 00:14:09,280 Speaker 1: But they had to be popping corks at mar A Laga. 268 00:14:09,559 --> 00:14:11,640 Speaker 7: No, definitely, no, No, yeah, you know, I mean, you know, 269 00:14:11,679 --> 00:14:14,040 Speaker 7: Trump's whole play is for delay, and you know he 270 00:14:14,160 --> 00:14:18,520 Speaker 7: got that now, you know, I think it was an 271 00:14:18,520 --> 00:14:23,080 Speaker 7: inevitable possibility that, given you know the fact that this 272 00:14:23,200 --> 00:14:27,600 Speaker 7: case didn't didn't arise until December, that the Supreme Court 273 00:14:27,640 --> 00:14:31,360 Speaker 7: would look at it. And while they didn't have to, 274 00:14:32,560 --> 00:14:35,200 Speaker 7: they elected to. And it's quite appropriate for them to 275 00:14:35,240 --> 00:14:37,720 Speaker 7: elect to do so. This is exactly what their rule is. 276 00:14:38,640 --> 00:14:41,240 Speaker 7: So yes, but Trump is Trump is happy, and Jack 277 00:14:41,280 --> 00:14:42,280 Speaker 7: Smith is frustrated. 278 00:14:43,920 --> 00:14:47,400 Speaker 3: You were among those, I believe to tell us that 279 00:14:47,480 --> 00:14:51,240 Speaker 3: this Appeals Court ruling was strong enough that the Supreme 280 00:14:51,280 --> 00:14:53,960 Speaker 3: Court had no need to step in. Here were you surprised. 281 00:14:54,000 --> 00:14:56,960 Speaker 7: In the end, they did so, yes, I was a 282 00:14:57,040 --> 00:15:00,920 Speaker 7: little surprised, but not after the not after the lengthy delay. 283 00:15:01,000 --> 00:15:04,120 Speaker 7: I mean, the lengthy delay that they took to consider 284 00:15:04,240 --> 00:15:07,280 Speaker 7: whether or not to grant to stay or to grant 285 00:15:07,320 --> 00:15:10,480 Speaker 7: serve as they ultimately did, suggested that there was some 286 00:15:10,560 --> 00:15:13,680 Speaker 7: discomfort on the court, and understandably because one keep in 287 00:15:13,760 --> 00:15:17,680 Speaker 7: mind that the DC Circuit did write a forceful and 288 00:15:17,800 --> 00:15:20,880 Speaker 7: comprehensive opinion. I think it was more than sufficient to 289 00:15:20,920 --> 00:15:24,880 Speaker 7: go forward with the case. But they did. They did 290 00:15:24,920 --> 00:15:28,400 Speaker 7: take an approach where they said, you know, I don't 291 00:15:28,440 --> 00:15:31,360 Speaker 7: know what the line or whatever the line may be 292 00:15:31,360 --> 00:15:35,880 Speaker 7: between official acts and criminal acts. It's clear that the 293 00:15:35,920 --> 00:15:39,520 Speaker 7: allegations in this indictment are so far over what that 294 00:15:39,560 --> 00:15:42,400 Speaker 7: line would be that we don't need to parse that. 295 00:15:42,800 --> 00:15:45,080 Speaker 7: And I think that's where the Supreme Court is uncomfortable. 296 00:15:45,120 --> 00:15:49,000 Speaker 7: I think they will. I think they were concerned about 297 00:15:49,080 --> 00:15:52,400 Speaker 7: letting the trial proceed unless that line was drawn for 298 00:15:52,440 --> 00:15:54,640 Speaker 7: the benefit of the litigants and for the district court. 299 00:15:54,760 --> 00:16:01,560 Speaker 7: And in fact, you know, a potentially problem problematic result 300 00:16:01,760 --> 00:16:04,440 Speaker 7: could be that this that the Court sends the case 301 00:16:04,480 --> 00:16:07,760 Speaker 7: back down to the district Court for actual factual findings 302 00:16:08,440 --> 00:16:09,320 Speaker 7: on that issue. 303 00:16:10,440 --> 00:16:14,119 Speaker 3: Wow, I've got less than a minute left, Ty, great conversation. 304 00:16:14,240 --> 00:16:16,680 Speaker 3: Will the Supreme Court, considering the nature of this case 305 00:16:16,760 --> 00:16:21,400 Speaker 3: is you've clearly framed your the significance of this ruling, 306 00:16:21,440 --> 00:16:23,680 Speaker 3: They would not be compelled to weigh in in an 307 00:16:23,720 --> 00:16:24,680 Speaker 3: expedited fashion. 308 00:16:26,360 --> 00:16:28,560 Speaker 7: Well, they keep in mind, they have expert I mean, 309 00:16:28,760 --> 00:16:30,680 Speaker 7: you know, there aren't more than you know, five or 310 00:16:30,720 --> 00:16:34,360 Speaker 7: six cases in history they've moved this light speed. But 311 00:16:34,840 --> 00:16:36,600 Speaker 7: they they're not moving as fast as they did in 312 00:16:36,600 --> 00:16:38,720 Speaker 7: Bush versus Gore. They're not even moving as fast as 313 00:16:38,720 --> 00:16:41,520 Speaker 7: they did in Nixon. So yes, I mean, I think 314 00:16:41,560 --> 00:16:44,000 Speaker 7: that's that's a problem. On the other hand, this came 315 00:16:44,080 --> 00:16:45,960 Speaker 7: up in the you know, at the late end of 316 00:16:45,960 --> 00:16:48,640 Speaker 7: a term. They squeezed it in, unlike unlike any other 317 00:16:48,680 --> 00:16:51,360 Speaker 7: case they've accepted recently, they squeezed it in and they're 318 00:16:51,400 --> 00:16:54,160 Speaker 7: going to resolve it, you know, as expeditions they can 319 00:16:54,280 --> 00:16:55,560 Speaker 7: this term. So that's good. 320 00:16:57,320 --> 00:17:01,080 Speaker 3: Really appreciate the insights today. It's Hi Cobb with us here. 321 00:17:01,160 --> 00:17:03,840 Speaker 3: Just hours after that Supreme Court ruling, former Special White 322 00:17:03,840 --> 00:17:06,119 Speaker 3: House counsel in the Proper Administration. 323 00:17:05,960 --> 00:17:09,480 Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch 324 00:17:09,560 --> 00:17:12,360 Speaker 2: Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Eppo car Play 325 00:17:12,400 --> 00:17:15,000 Speaker 2: and then Roud Otto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen 326 00:17:15,119 --> 00:17:18,160 Speaker 2: on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us 327 00:17:18,200 --> 00:17:20,960 Speaker 2: live on YouTube. 328 00:17:22,080 --> 00:17:23,840 Speaker 4: And what's interesting, Joe, is we've had a lot of 329 00:17:23,840 --> 00:17:25,920 Speaker 4: news in the last twenty four hours to see, say 330 00:17:25,920 --> 00:17:28,320 Speaker 4: the least, from Mitch McConnell to a funding deal to 331 00:17:28,400 --> 00:17:31,080 Speaker 4: even yesterday the Supreme Court deciding that it was going 332 00:17:31,119 --> 00:17:34,800 Speaker 4: to take up Trump's immunity challenge, a headline just crossing 333 00:17:34,800 --> 00:17:37,760 Speaker 4: the terminal now after news yesterday in addition to all 334 00:17:37,800 --> 00:17:40,520 Speaker 4: of that that Illinois was kicking Trump off the ballot 335 00:17:40,720 --> 00:17:43,720 Speaker 4: on the grounds of the Fourteenth Amendment. Trump will remain 336 00:17:43,800 --> 00:17:46,800 Speaker 4: on that ballot as a judge now stays that ruling. 337 00:17:46,800 --> 00:17:49,240 Speaker 4: This is according to people familiar with the matter, say, 338 00:17:49,280 --> 00:17:53,760 Speaker 4: Illinois Judge Porter is issuing this order to pause this 339 00:17:53,800 --> 00:17:56,000 Speaker 4: Trump ruling and tell the appeals process ends. And we 340 00:17:56,040 --> 00:17:58,600 Speaker 4: also know, Joe, that this is an issue that the 341 00:17:58,600 --> 00:18:00,840 Speaker 4: Supreme Court is also dealing with. Just a few weeks ago, 342 00:18:00,880 --> 00:18:03,240 Speaker 4: they heard arguments in this Fourteenth Amendment case. 343 00:18:03,440 --> 00:18:05,359 Speaker 3: Yeah, that's right, and a ruling that could come at 344 00:18:05,400 --> 00:18:07,359 Speaker 3: any time. I guess we're waiting for a lot of 345 00:18:07,400 --> 00:18:09,080 Speaker 3: rulings now from the Supreme Court as they take up 346 00:18:09,119 --> 00:18:13,080 Speaker 3: the immunity case as well. A major development late yesterday 347 00:18:13,119 --> 00:18:18,000 Speaker 3: that we spoke earlier with Ty Cobb about. It appears, Kaylee, 348 00:18:18,080 --> 00:18:22,880 Speaker 3: that Jack Smith's trial here in Washington, unless there's some 349 00:18:23,040 --> 00:18:26,800 Speaker 3: small miracle, will not have time to see its way 350 00:18:26,800 --> 00:18:29,440 Speaker 3: through at least before the election. It could be underway 351 00:18:29,480 --> 00:18:31,400 Speaker 3: when people vote, but not likely concluded. 352 00:18:31,480 --> 00:18:31,600 Speaker 1: Well. 353 00:18:31,640 --> 00:18:34,600 Speaker 4: And as we learned once again in Bloomberg's latest poll 354 00:18:34,640 --> 00:18:37,800 Speaker 4: with Morning Consul today, the outcome of Trump's criminal trials 355 00:18:37,920 --> 00:18:41,479 Speaker 4: very much could impact how likely voters are to support 356 00:18:41,560 --> 00:18:45,080 Speaker 4: him come November. In Swing States, more than half say 357 00:18:45,080 --> 00:18:47,239 Speaker 4: they would not vote for Donald Trump if you were 358 00:18:47,280 --> 00:18:48,160 Speaker 4: to be a convicted fellow. 359 00:18:48,200 --> 00:18:50,320 Speaker 3: Yeah, we want to get into this our latest Bloomberg 360 00:18:50,359 --> 00:18:52,760 Speaker 3: News Morning Consult Swing State pole with our panel. 361 00:18:52,840 --> 00:18:53,720 Speaker 1: Let's assemble the panel. 362 00:18:53,760 --> 00:18:57,520 Speaker 3: Rick Davis is where this Bloomberg Politics contributor and Republican strategist, 363 00:18:57,520 --> 00:19:02,720 Speaker 3: alongside Democratic analyst Lincoln Mitchell lecture at Columbia University. Also 364 00:19:02,800 --> 00:19:05,280 Speaker 3: runs a cool sub stack that we'll tell you about 365 00:19:05,320 --> 00:19:08,240 Speaker 3: here as well. Great to have both of you with us. Welcome, 366 00:19:08,280 --> 00:19:11,240 Speaker 3: to the Thursday edition. Rick, you've been watching this poll 367 00:19:11,640 --> 00:19:14,919 Speaker 3: since it was born several months ago. How would you 368 00:19:15,080 --> 00:19:19,159 Speaker 3: characterize the state of this race for Joe Biden? Deemed 369 00:19:19,200 --> 00:19:22,520 Speaker 3: too old in this contest and losing all seven swing 370 00:19:22,520 --> 00:19:23,960 Speaker 3: states to Donald Trump. 371 00:19:24,800 --> 00:19:28,199 Speaker 8: Yeah, there's no question. It's really bad news for Joe Biden. 372 00:19:28,359 --> 00:19:31,840 Speaker 8: No appreciable change other than you know, in a couple 373 00:19:31,840 --> 00:19:35,399 Speaker 8: of states like Michigan, where he's drawn closer but still 374 00:19:35,560 --> 00:19:39,600 Speaker 8: behind by a point. I'd like to switch to issues. 375 00:19:39,720 --> 00:19:42,080 Speaker 8: I mean, we've talked for a long time about you know, 376 00:19:42,119 --> 00:19:46,240 Speaker 8: this Biden economy, Bidenomics. He's got to convinced voters that 377 00:19:46,280 --> 00:19:47,600 Speaker 8: he can manage the economy. 378 00:19:48,119 --> 00:19:48,720 Speaker 1: And what we're. 379 00:19:48,600 --> 00:19:52,320 Speaker 8: Seeing in this poll in these states, the economy still 380 00:19:52,359 --> 00:19:58,160 Speaker 8: significantly outweighs the border as the number one issue to voters. 381 00:19:58,280 --> 00:20:02,000 Speaker 8: And nowadays that actually hype and Joe Biden's best interest 382 00:20:02,080 --> 00:20:06,640 Speaker 8: because there is some indications improvement by five points in 383 00:20:06,680 --> 00:20:11,120 Speaker 8: this current survey, respondent saying that they think the economy 384 00:20:11,200 --> 00:20:14,400 Speaker 8: is getting better. So some of what we're seeing and 385 00:20:14,440 --> 00:20:17,080 Speaker 8: predicting We've been talking about this a long time, that 386 00:20:17,440 --> 00:20:21,440 Speaker 8: there's a lagging impact with voters around and improving economy. 387 00:20:21,720 --> 00:20:23,880 Speaker 8: Maybe we're starting to see some of that lag come in, 388 00:20:23,920 --> 00:20:27,480 Speaker 8: and probably at a key time because at this stage, 389 00:20:27,560 --> 00:20:29,760 Speaker 8: if I were a betting man, I'd say the economy 390 00:20:29,880 --> 00:20:33,800 Speaker 8: still out flanks border as an issue for voters in 391 00:20:33,840 --> 00:20:37,440 Speaker 8: these states, but it's gotten. But Biden has to take 392 00:20:37,480 --> 00:20:38,879 Speaker 8: credit for that improvement. 393 00:20:40,680 --> 00:20:43,560 Speaker 4: Well, so Lincoln, let's continue this conversation on the economy, 394 00:20:43,600 --> 00:20:45,840 Speaker 4: because Rick is right, you could see some of the 395 00:20:45,920 --> 00:20:48,840 Speaker 4: numbers coming into more in the Presidence favor. Though still 396 00:20:48,880 --> 00:20:51,200 Speaker 4: this poll showed only thirty one percent of voters think 397 00:20:51,240 --> 00:20:53,760 Speaker 4: the economy is heading in the white right direction. At 398 00:20:53,840 --> 00:20:57,000 Speaker 4: least on a national level, it does improve, they're thinking 399 00:20:57,040 --> 00:21:00,200 Speaker 4: as we ask them about what they feel locally, they're 400 00:21:00,240 --> 00:21:03,680 Speaker 4: more likely to say their local economy is doing okay. 401 00:21:03,840 --> 00:21:06,639 Speaker 4: But when you're if you're the Biden campaign, looking at 402 00:21:06,880 --> 00:21:10,959 Speaker 4: only essentially a thirty one percent feeling good about the economy, 403 00:21:11,560 --> 00:21:14,560 Speaker 4: how much time do you realistically have to improve that? 404 00:21:14,600 --> 00:21:16,520 Speaker 4: Do you have all the way until November or mine's 405 00:21:16,560 --> 00:21:18,880 Speaker 4: going to be made up on that in the more 406 00:21:18,880 --> 00:21:19,719 Speaker 4: immediate future. 407 00:21:20,600 --> 00:21:22,280 Speaker 9: Well, if I might make a few points you touched 408 00:21:22,280 --> 00:21:25,439 Speaker 9: on this. It's very notable in that poll because the 409 00:21:25,520 --> 00:21:28,400 Speaker 9: people view the economy in their state better than nationally, 410 00:21:28,480 --> 00:21:30,440 Speaker 9: and in their local I forget the exact words, but 411 00:21:30,520 --> 00:21:33,359 Speaker 9: essentially their town or city better than the state, which 412 00:21:33,400 --> 00:21:35,840 Speaker 9: means the closer they are to a lived experience of 413 00:21:35,880 --> 00:21:39,560 Speaker 9: the economy, the more favorably they view the economy. And 414 00:21:39,600 --> 00:21:41,320 Speaker 9: the reason for that there could be lots of reasons 415 00:21:41,359 --> 00:21:43,000 Speaker 9: for that. Obviously, what they're getting in the media is 416 00:21:43,000 --> 00:21:45,360 Speaker 9: a big reason for that. The thing about the economy 417 00:21:45,440 --> 00:21:48,280 Speaker 9: is twenty years ago, thirty years ago. We could say 418 00:21:48,280 --> 00:21:50,840 Speaker 9: that the economy is the biggest indicator of whether or 419 00:21:50,920 --> 00:21:54,199 Speaker 9: not the president will get reelected. Strong economy, president's party wins, 420 00:21:54,560 --> 00:21:57,480 Speaker 9: or the president's self wins, or economy the president doesn't 421 00:21:57,480 --> 00:22:01,679 Speaker 9: get reelected or his party loses. Today, asking people what 422 00:22:01,720 --> 00:22:05,520 Speaker 9: they think of the economy is a surrogate measure of partisanship. 423 00:22:05,520 --> 00:22:07,440 Speaker 9: And one piece of evidence I would offer for that 424 00:22:07,920 --> 00:22:10,440 Speaker 9: is that Republicans over the course of the month of 425 00:22:10,520 --> 00:22:13,080 Speaker 9: January twenty twenty one went from picking it was a 426 00:22:13,080 --> 00:22:15,800 Speaker 9: great economy to a terrible economy. And that was simply 427 00:22:15,840 --> 00:22:19,080 Speaker 9: because we had a new president. And that's a long 428 00:22:19,119 --> 00:22:22,879 Speaker 9: way of saying that Biden, I think still has some 429 00:22:23,080 --> 00:22:26,280 Speaker 9: time by late summer people's views about the economy are 430 00:22:26,280 --> 00:22:28,720 Speaker 9: going to solidify it. He still has some time to 431 00:22:28,800 --> 00:22:32,479 Speaker 9: raise those numbers. And while this is like in every election, 432 00:22:32,560 --> 00:22:36,080 Speaker 9: the most important issue, it's not necessarily the issue that 433 00:22:36,160 --> 00:22:38,840 Speaker 9: moves the undecided voters, even in these states. So to 434 00:22:38,880 --> 00:22:40,280 Speaker 9: just I don't have the data in front of it, 435 00:22:40,280 --> 00:22:42,320 Speaker 9: it struck out. It struck out at me that abortion 436 00:22:43,000 --> 00:22:45,719 Speaker 9: was ranked at the number one issue by six percent 437 00:22:45,760 --> 00:22:47,760 Speaker 9: of the voters when they can only list one. That's 438 00:22:47,840 --> 00:22:51,680 Speaker 9: actually pretty high. So where are those six If those 439 00:22:51,720 --> 00:22:54,520 Speaker 9: six are in the undecided camp? Because they're you know, 440 00:22:54,960 --> 00:22:57,760 Speaker 9: suburban white folks who kind of want to vote Republican 441 00:22:57,800 --> 00:23:00,320 Speaker 9: but aren't happy about Dobbs. Those are people who Biden 442 00:23:00,359 --> 00:23:02,879 Speaker 9: can get. So I completely agree with Rick that the 443 00:23:02,920 --> 00:23:06,320 Speaker 9: way to understand this poll is by looking at the issues. 444 00:23:06,400 --> 00:23:09,240 Speaker 9: But simply Joe Biden pounding his fist on the table 445 00:23:09,240 --> 00:23:11,720 Speaker 9: and saying, hey, the economy is better than you think 446 00:23:12,280 --> 00:23:16,480 Speaker 9: is not a winning a strategy. Overall, There's no way 447 00:23:16,480 --> 00:23:20,640 Speaker 9: to spend this as good news for Biden. I've from 448 00:23:20,720 --> 00:23:22,280 Speaker 9: very early on to this, I said, this is not 449 00:23:22,320 --> 00:23:24,479 Speaker 9: going to end with Trump being convicted. That was always 450 00:23:24,760 --> 00:23:26,879 Speaker 9: even with all these legal cases and even within my 451 00:23:26,960 --> 00:23:30,960 Speaker 9: view whose obvious guilt that was always a fantasy. This 452 00:23:31,080 --> 00:23:33,200 Speaker 9: is going to be a very close election, still doable 453 00:23:33,240 --> 00:23:35,080 Speaker 9: for Biden, but he's got a lot of work to do, 454 00:23:35,480 --> 00:23:38,280 Speaker 9: and the communications piece of this has to improve not 455 00:23:38,320 --> 00:23:40,359 Speaker 9: only on the economy, but on a whole bevy of issues, 456 00:23:40,359 --> 00:23:43,199 Speaker 9: including going after Trump and reminding people how bad it 457 00:23:43,280 --> 00:23:44,200 Speaker 9: was when he was president. 458 00:23:45,400 --> 00:23:48,560 Speaker 3: Unfavorables are brutal. It seems like for everybody here Rick 459 00:23:48,680 --> 00:23:51,240 Speaker 3: sixty four percent in one state here for Donald Trump. 460 00:23:52,280 --> 00:23:56,000 Speaker 3: When I say everyone, I'm including Kamala Harris, and we 461 00:23:56,000 --> 00:23:59,040 Speaker 3: don't talk about her very often. At some point, Donald 462 00:23:59,040 --> 00:24:00,800 Speaker 3: Trumps going to choose a run, She's going to have 463 00:24:00,840 --> 00:24:02,800 Speaker 3: to stand for a debate. I just wonder to what 464 00:24:02,920 --> 00:24:05,960 Speaker 3: extent when people talk about danger here. By the way, 465 00:24:06,720 --> 00:24:11,119 Speaker 3: single digits in this poll consider neither of them to 466 00:24:11,160 --> 00:24:15,520 Speaker 3: be too dangerous. To what extent does Kamala Harrison a 467 00:24:15,600 --> 00:24:18,280 Speaker 3: vice presidential choice that Donald Trump will make, if any 468 00:24:18,560 --> 00:24:19,120 Speaker 3: impact this? 469 00:24:20,520 --> 00:24:22,760 Speaker 8: Yeah, I think we're too early to tell. I mean, 470 00:24:22,800 --> 00:24:26,520 Speaker 8: she's clearly not a very popular politician, maybe the least 471 00:24:26,560 --> 00:24:31,400 Speaker 8: popular politician in America today. I mean Nancy Pelosi considered 472 00:24:31,440 --> 00:24:34,480 Speaker 8: no favors by getting out of leadership because she used 473 00:24:34,480 --> 00:24:37,879 Speaker 8: to be the least popular politician in America. And so 474 00:24:37,960 --> 00:24:41,160 Speaker 8: I think this campaign, the Biden White House, the Biden 475 00:24:41,240 --> 00:24:42,879 Speaker 8: campaign is going to have to figure out what they 476 00:24:42,920 --> 00:24:45,960 Speaker 8: want to do. I remember the dog days of nineteen 477 00:24:46,080 --> 00:24:49,280 Speaker 8: ninety two when we had, you know, a really tough 478 00:24:49,320 --> 00:24:53,760 Speaker 8: campaign with George H. W. Bush, and it reminds me 479 00:24:53,800 --> 00:24:55,959 Speaker 8: a lot of this campaign. And dan Quayle was an 480 00:24:56,040 --> 00:24:58,960 Speaker 8: anchor on that campaign. I mean, nice enough guy, but 481 00:24:59,040 --> 00:25:01,679 Speaker 8: nobody thought he was the vice president that was going 482 00:25:01,720 --> 00:25:04,600 Speaker 8: to help the ticket get elected, and there was a 483 00:25:04,720 --> 00:25:07,719 Speaker 8: legitimate effort to try and unseat him as the candidate. 484 00:25:07,720 --> 00:25:11,600 Speaker 8: And ultimately George H. W. Bush said, my loyalty is 485 00:25:11,640 --> 00:25:14,399 Speaker 8: what I treasure more than anything, and I guess he 486 00:25:14,480 --> 00:25:17,280 Speaker 8: treasured that more than winning re election. So that's going 487 00:25:17,320 --> 00:25:19,200 Speaker 8: to be a test at some point. We'll talk about 488 00:25:19,240 --> 00:25:22,160 Speaker 8: it a lot running up to the convention, but Democrats 489 00:25:22,160 --> 00:25:24,000 Speaker 8: are going to have to look at this themselves and say, 490 00:25:24,080 --> 00:25:25,920 Speaker 8: is this really the best ticket that we can put 491 00:25:25,920 --> 00:25:27,040 Speaker 8: on the field to play. 492 00:25:28,320 --> 00:25:30,160 Speaker 4: Well, speaking of things we talk about a lot. We've 493 00:25:30,160 --> 00:25:33,240 Speaker 4: talked a lot about the economy, obviously Lincoln, but and 494 00:25:33,600 --> 00:25:37,240 Speaker 4: Rick mentioned this a bit. Immigration maybe not as much 495 00:25:37,240 --> 00:25:41,600 Speaker 4: of an issue in the economy as in these swing states, 496 00:25:42,320 --> 00:25:45,439 Speaker 4: but Biden clearly is taking this issue seriously as he 497 00:25:45,480 --> 00:25:47,879 Speaker 4: is at the border today. Donald Trump also is at 498 00:25:47,920 --> 00:25:51,280 Speaker 4: the border today. There are a few hundred miles apart. Optically, 499 00:25:51,359 --> 00:25:54,399 Speaker 4: who do these visits favor. If Biden's visit doesn't actually 500 00:25:54,440 --> 00:25:59,600 Speaker 4: come with any executive action, say, any real policy. 501 00:25:59,240 --> 00:26:03,760 Speaker 9: Change, well, optically it's Biden. It's Trump throwing red meat 502 00:26:03,800 --> 00:26:06,240 Speaker 9: to his base that always helps him. For Biden, I 503 00:26:06,240 --> 00:26:08,080 Speaker 9: think this is I don't think this makes any impression 504 00:26:08,080 --> 00:26:10,160 Speaker 9: at all. I wanted to go back to Kamala Harris 505 00:26:10,200 --> 00:26:13,360 Speaker 9: and said one very important, two very important points here. 506 00:26:14,000 --> 00:26:17,919 Speaker 9: Kamala Harris is unpopular because Joe Biden wants her to 507 00:26:17,920 --> 00:26:23,200 Speaker 9: be unpopular. Had he supported her the way Obama supported him, 508 00:26:23,440 --> 00:26:26,240 Speaker 9: and had Harris's numbers been strong, which they would have been, 509 00:26:27,080 --> 00:26:29,520 Speaker 9: the pressure on him not to run would have been extreme. 510 00:26:30,359 --> 00:26:32,000 Speaker 9: The only way he was going to get to run 511 00:26:32,040 --> 00:26:34,920 Speaker 9: for a second term was if Harris was unpopular. That's 512 00:26:34,960 --> 00:26:37,000 Speaker 9: why he pushed her away. We just talked about the border. 513 00:26:37,119 --> 00:26:40,760 Speaker 9: That's why he gave her that responsibility At popular. Kamala 514 00:26:40,800 --> 00:26:43,840 Speaker 9: Harris was an enormous threat to Joe Biden. But that's 515 00:26:43,880 --> 00:26:46,200 Speaker 9: where we are. Where we are now, this is important. 516 00:26:46,320 --> 00:26:48,800 Speaker 9: There is no way they're taking Kamala Harris off the ticket. 517 00:26:49,080 --> 00:26:51,520 Speaker 9: The idea that the Democratic Party is going to take 518 00:26:51,520 --> 00:26:54,080 Speaker 9: an African American woman off of the ticket is just 519 00:26:54,280 --> 00:26:57,159 Speaker 9: complete non starter, as it should be because she is 520 00:26:57,800 --> 00:27:00,439 Speaker 9: extremely qualified for this. But secondly, I don't know if 521 00:27:00,480 --> 00:27:02,399 Speaker 9: I didn't have time to read this entire poll, but 522 00:27:02,560 --> 00:27:06,520 Speaker 9: every poll I've seen shows that among the non Biden candidates, 523 00:27:06,880 --> 00:27:09,919 Speaker 9: Harris is winning big among voters, among Democratic voters to 524 00:27:09,920 --> 00:27:12,400 Speaker 9: be clear. So in other words, if Biden doesn't run, 525 00:27:12,560 --> 00:27:14,800 Speaker 9: it's going to be Kamala Harris. But what that also 526 00:27:14,920 --> 00:27:17,080 Speaker 9: tells you is that within the base of the Republican 527 00:27:17,119 --> 00:27:21,320 Speaker 9: Party she's still pretty popular. Biden made an enormous strategic 528 00:27:21,520 --> 00:27:24,200 Speaker 9: error by not supporting Harris from the beginning. 529 00:27:24,400 --> 00:27:25,640 Speaker 1: There is real. 530 00:27:25,480 --> 00:27:28,600 Speaker 9: Political talent here. This is somebody who won handily in 531 00:27:28,640 --> 00:27:31,919 Speaker 9: a competitive ag race, handily in what ended up not 532 00:27:31,960 --> 00:27:35,040 Speaker 9: being a competitive Senate race. Particularly, she can be very 533 00:27:35,160 --> 00:27:38,160 Speaker 9: very good, but Biden didn't have her back. Obama did 534 00:27:38,160 --> 00:27:41,240 Speaker 9: have his for eight years, all right. 535 00:27:41,280 --> 00:27:45,560 Speaker 4: Lincoln Mitchell of Columbia University and Bloomberg Politics contributor Rick Davis. 536 00:27:45,600 --> 00:27:47,399 Speaker 4: Always great to have you both on the program. Thank 537 00:27:47,480 --> 00:27:49,240 Speaker 4: you so much for joining us. I would point out 538 00:27:49,240 --> 00:27:51,119 Speaker 4: that the House has started voting as they try to 539 00:27:51,160 --> 00:27:54,720 Speaker 4: make their way toward passing this funding deal, which essentially 540 00:27:54,840 --> 00:27:57,200 Speaker 4: is just a continuing resolution so they can actually pass 541 00:27:57,600 --> 00:28:01,320 Speaker 4: the funding packages themselves. The most to suspend the rules 542 00:28:01,920 --> 00:28:04,080 Speaker 4: is being voted on now. We will continue to keep 543 00:28:04,119 --> 00:28:04,760 Speaker 4: you Aprize. 544 00:28:06,720 --> 00:28:10,120 Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens 545 00:28:10,240 --> 00:28:13,560 Speaker 2: just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and enron 546 00:28:13,600 --> 00:28:16,240 Speaker 2: Oto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen 547 00:28:16,400 --> 00:28:19,520 Speaker 2: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, 548 00:28:19,880 --> 00:28:22,520 Speaker 2: Just Say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven. 549 00:28:22,320 --> 00:28:27,600 Speaker 3: Thirty chiming in now as the House does its work 550 00:28:28,400 --> 00:28:30,640 Speaker 3: to avoid a government shutdown. Commers, So, but it's great 551 00:28:30,640 --> 00:28:32,000 Speaker 3: to see you. Thanks for coming back to talk to 552 00:28:32,119 --> 00:28:34,800 Speaker 3: us on Bloomberg. What do you make of this plan? 553 00:28:35,200 --> 00:28:38,040 Speaker 3: Is this actually going to work when we start working 554 00:28:38,400 --> 00:28:40,000 Speaker 3: a week or two in here and we get to 555 00:28:40,040 --> 00:28:43,560 Speaker 3: some of the more complex and controversial spending bills like 556 00:28:43,920 --> 00:28:47,480 Speaker 3: homeland security, like the Pentagon. Are we going to be 557 00:28:47,520 --> 00:28:49,760 Speaker 3: talking about a shutdown again next time you join us. 558 00:28:51,400 --> 00:28:55,760 Speaker 5: That seems to be the expertise of this Congress. I mean, 559 00:28:55,800 --> 00:28:58,000 Speaker 5: we have lowered the bar so much that we cheer 560 00:28:58,040 --> 00:29:00,000 Speaker 5: every time they are able to kick the can down 561 00:29:00,000 --> 00:29:02,959 Speaker 5: on the road a little bit further. And you know, 562 00:29:03,000 --> 00:29:05,760 Speaker 5: this is something that should have been passed last September. 563 00:29:06,000 --> 00:29:10,280 Speaker 5: And you know, it's really unfortunate that we are governing 564 00:29:10,560 --> 00:29:14,440 Speaker 5: in you know, months at a time, weeks at a 565 00:29:14,480 --> 00:29:18,880 Speaker 5: time of funding for our government. It's almost as if 566 00:29:18,920 --> 00:29:23,000 Speaker 5: we're a banana republic. It's insanity. But what I hear 567 00:29:23,280 --> 00:29:25,719 Speaker 5: off of the hill is that they think they have 568 00:29:25,760 --> 00:29:28,800 Speaker 5: a deal on these six bills and they just need 569 00:29:28,840 --> 00:29:31,160 Speaker 5: a little more time to put the finishing touches on 570 00:29:31,240 --> 00:29:34,120 Speaker 5: it and also to give seventy two hours for their 571 00:29:34,160 --> 00:29:37,480 Speaker 5: members to review the contact of the bill. My hope 572 00:29:37,600 --> 00:29:40,240 Speaker 5: is what that really means is that they have resolved 573 00:29:40,360 --> 00:29:43,640 Speaker 5: the poison pills that the conservative Republicans have put into 574 00:29:44,040 --> 00:29:47,400 Speaker 5: the spending bills, and that when they come back to 575 00:29:48,320 --> 00:29:50,680 Speaker 5: actually take a vote on the bills, it will be 576 00:29:50,720 --> 00:29:54,280 Speaker 5: something that is acceptable to Senate Democrats as well as 577 00:29:54,360 --> 00:29:55,960 Speaker 5: to Democratic White. 578 00:29:55,720 --> 00:30:00,680 Speaker 4: House, but probably not acceptable to those conservative who wanted 579 00:30:00,720 --> 00:30:03,240 Speaker 4: those policy writers in there. We've heard from a couple 580 00:30:03,320 --> 00:30:06,040 Speaker 4: of them who are disgruntled. Even last night on Balance 581 00:30:06,080 --> 00:30:08,360 Speaker 4: of Power, Joe and I spoke with Republican Congressman from 582 00:30:08,400 --> 00:30:11,280 Speaker 4: South Carolina, Ralph Norman, who called this deal an insult 583 00:30:11,640 --> 00:30:14,360 Speaker 4: to the American people. We asked him whether or not 584 00:30:14,400 --> 00:30:17,600 Speaker 4: he thought Speaker Mike Johnson, having promised no more short 585 00:30:17,680 --> 00:30:20,840 Speaker 4: term continuing resolutions and now delivering yet another one, if 586 00:30:20,880 --> 00:30:22,640 Speaker 4: there would be a threat to his gavel like we 587 00:30:22,720 --> 00:30:28,040 Speaker 4: saw in Kevin McCarthy's case last year, should Democrats protect 588 00:30:28,520 --> 00:30:32,000 Speaker 4: Mike Johnson if that were to happen, If for keeping 589 00:30:32,040 --> 00:30:35,680 Speaker 4: the government funded and open as a consequence he had 590 00:30:35,720 --> 00:30:38,120 Speaker 4: a threat to the gavel, would you advise your colleagues 591 00:30:38,760 --> 00:30:41,040 Speaker 4: to help him out of that situation. 592 00:30:42,840 --> 00:30:44,920 Speaker 5: I think Democrats, at the end of the day, always 593 00:30:45,040 --> 00:30:48,600 Speaker 5: are the party that wants to govern, and so I 594 00:30:48,680 --> 00:30:51,400 Speaker 5: wouldn't be surprised if there are some members of the 595 00:30:51,400 --> 00:30:56,640 Speaker 5: Democratic Party who would in this case try to help here, 596 00:30:56,760 --> 00:30:59,840 Speaker 5: because shutting down the government is a really serious thing 597 00:31:00,680 --> 00:31:04,440 Speaker 5: that affects Americans all across this country. People who are 598 00:31:04,440 --> 00:31:09,080 Speaker 5: dependent on their jobs in the federal government, people who 599 00:31:09,120 --> 00:31:13,240 Speaker 5: are dependent on the support that the federal government provides them. 600 00:31:13,280 --> 00:31:16,680 Speaker 5: There are just so many people who are at the 601 00:31:16,800 --> 00:31:20,560 Speaker 5: mercy of the politics that are happening in Washington. And 602 00:31:20,960 --> 00:31:23,120 Speaker 5: I know that Democrats want to govern, so I wouldn't 603 00:31:23,120 --> 00:31:25,640 Speaker 5: be surprised if they tried to step in and do 604 00:31:25,760 --> 00:31:29,200 Speaker 5: what was needed in order to ensure that they didn't 605 00:31:29,320 --> 00:31:34,160 Speaker 5: hurt the average American out there who need their government 606 00:31:34,200 --> 00:31:35,120 Speaker 5: to function properly. 607 00:31:36,240 --> 00:31:38,320 Speaker 3: Well, if they get this done, congressome and there are 608 00:31:38,360 --> 00:31:41,440 Speaker 3: questions about whether there might be hope for the supplemental 609 00:31:41,520 --> 00:31:46,400 Speaker 3: request the President made for Ukraine specifically, also Israel in Taiwan. 610 00:31:46,440 --> 00:31:49,720 Speaker 3: And we know what a difficult time this has had 611 00:31:50,000 --> 00:31:51,480 Speaker 3: passing as Speaker. 612 00:31:51,200 --> 00:31:53,320 Speaker 1: Johnson won't even bring it to the floor. 613 00:31:54,080 --> 00:31:56,680 Speaker 3: But if this gets done, there are questions, maybe some 614 00:31:56,800 --> 00:31:59,720 Speaker 3: optimism that could happen. Having seen Mike Johnson in the 615 00:31:59,760 --> 00:32:04,120 Speaker 3: old office just a couple of days ago, and I wonder, Congresswoman, 616 00:32:04,280 --> 00:32:07,360 Speaker 3: following your career in Congress and at the Department of Defense, 617 00:32:07,400 --> 00:32:10,800 Speaker 3: your thoughts on the CIA director being part of that conversation. 618 00:32:10,840 --> 00:32:13,000 Speaker 3: They brought Bill Burns in to talk to Mike Johnson. 619 00:32:13,840 --> 00:32:15,040 Speaker 3: Do you think he changed his mind? 620 00:32:16,720 --> 00:32:20,600 Speaker 5: I think they brought somebody in to basically underscore for 621 00:32:20,800 --> 00:32:25,000 Speaker 5: Mike Johnson how important it is that we support our 622 00:32:25,040 --> 00:32:29,480 Speaker 5: allies and to help him have some facts and details 623 00:32:29,480 --> 00:32:34,480 Speaker 5: that maybe make the case to the holdouts within his caucus. 624 00:32:35,080 --> 00:32:38,040 Speaker 5: I do think though, that while it's one thing to 625 00:32:38,440 --> 00:32:43,360 Speaker 5: pass legislation that directly affects the American people and the 626 00:32:43,480 --> 00:32:51,000 Speaker 5: domestic economic situation and the function of US government, it's 627 00:32:51,200 --> 00:32:56,760 Speaker 5: a much steeper hill, especially given the current environment, to 628 00:32:56,960 --> 00:33:01,400 Speaker 5: pass a supplemental that sends money abroad in the eyes 629 00:33:01,440 --> 00:33:04,080 Speaker 5: of the American people. And I think that's a misnomer, 630 00:33:04,160 --> 00:33:07,320 Speaker 5: to be clear, because a lot when they pass that supplemental, 631 00:33:07,400 --> 00:33:09,920 Speaker 5: much of that money is spent here in the United States. 632 00:33:10,320 --> 00:33:12,920 Speaker 5: But I don't know that there's been much leadership to 633 00:33:13,000 --> 00:33:14,880 Speaker 5: explain that to the American people. 634 00:33:16,760 --> 00:33:19,920 Speaker 4: Well, of course, there are potential workarounds if the Speaker 635 00:33:19,960 --> 00:33:22,320 Speaker 4: isn't going to put a Ukraine aid bill on the floor, 636 00:33:22,360 --> 00:33:26,160 Speaker 4: potentially a discharge petition, which Democrats have floated one of 637 00:33:26,160 --> 00:33:28,680 Speaker 4: their own in order to have a vehicle to pass 638 00:33:28,760 --> 00:33:32,320 Speaker 4: the Senate passed package that included the funding for Israel 639 00:33:32,320 --> 00:33:36,640 Speaker 4: and Ukraine. But also House Republicans are preparing a discharge petition. 640 00:33:36,680 --> 00:33:39,560 Speaker 4: This is an effort led by a Republican Congressman, Fitzpatrick, 641 00:33:40,520 --> 00:33:43,760 Speaker 4: and it's their alternative plan kind of defense only no 642 00:33:43,880 --> 00:33:48,960 Speaker 4: humanitarian aid with border measures within it. Should Democrats be 643 00:33:49,040 --> 00:33:51,880 Speaker 4: part of that effort? There's been suggestions from some Democratic 644 00:33:51,920 --> 00:33:54,840 Speaker 4: leadership that they are not on board with fitzpatrick planned. 645 00:33:54,840 --> 00:33:58,680 Speaker 4: But Fitzpatrick's plan, but if it gets the aid to Ukraine, 646 00:33:58,920 --> 00:34:00,720 Speaker 4: why not take what you can do yet? 647 00:34:02,320 --> 00:34:05,200 Speaker 5: Because that's a reasonable thing for somebody on the outside 648 00:34:05,240 --> 00:34:07,840 Speaker 5: to look at it. But when you're inside that pressure cooker, 649 00:34:08,200 --> 00:34:11,000 Speaker 5: when you say there's no humanitarian aid and there are 650 00:34:11,040 --> 00:34:14,160 Speaker 5: border provisions, you've lost a part of the Democratic Party, 651 00:34:14,480 --> 00:34:17,160 Speaker 5: which means that you have to make that up with 652 00:34:17,920 --> 00:34:21,720 Speaker 5: Republicans in order to get enough votes for the discharge petition. 653 00:34:22,200 --> 00:34:25,160 Speaker 5: And that means that you're digging deeper into a Republican 654 00:34:25,200 --> 00:34:28,400 Speaker 5: party that has been instructed by the former President Trump 655 00:34:28,800 --> 00:34:31,880 Speaker 5: not to support this package or any sort of package 656 00:34:32,520 --> 00:34:36,319 Speaker 5: that provides assistance to Ukraine. And there just aren't that 657 00:34:36,400 --> 00:34:39,240 Speaker 5: many brave souls in the Republican Party in my opinion, 658 00:34:39,880 --> 00:34:43,640 Speaker 5: given basing that on the votes that have been taken 659 00:34:43,680 --> 00:34:47,239 Speaker 5: to date, and so I know there's been a lot 660 00:34:47,280 --> 00:34:50,200 Speaker 5: of conversation about discharge petition. But I also know how 661 00:34:50,239 --> 00:34:53,200 Speaker 5: hard it is to be in the majority party and 662 00:34:53,280 --> 00:34:55,959 Speaker 5: sign on to a discharge petition because it is seen 663 00:34:56,080 --> 00:34:58,120 Speaker 5: as giving power over to the minority. 664 00:35:00,200 --> 00:35:01,800 Speaker 1: Can't imagine why you don't want to do this anymore. 665 00:35:01,840 --> 00:35:04,520 Speaker 3: Comswoman, I have to ask you, while you're with us, 666 00:35:04,640 --> 00:35:07,000 Speaker 3: as a former member of the January sixth Committee, the 667 00:35:07,000 --> 00:35:09,960 Speaker 3: news we got from the Supreme Court yesterday it broke late. 668 00:35:10,560 --> 00:35:14,000 Speaker 3: The Scotus is going to take up Donald Trump's immunity 669 00:35:14,160 --> 00:35:18,560 Speaker 3: challenge here presidential immunity, which is going to delay maybe 670 00:35:18,840 --> 00:35:24,040 Speaker 3: indefinitely Jack Smith's trial on January sixth here in Washington, DC, 671 00:35:24,760 --> 00:35:27,480 Speaker 3: that trial doesn't happen in time for the election. Will 672 00:35:27,480 --> 00:35:28,680 Speaker 3: the Supreme Court be to blame? 673 00:35:30,520 --> 00:35:34,440 Speaker 5: I certainly hope that the wheels of justice spend a 674 00:35:34,520 --> 00:35:37,520 Speaker 5: little bit faster than what anybody is anticipating right now, 675 00:35:37,560 --> 00:35:39,799 Speaker 5: because it's important that the American people go to the 676 00:35:39,840 --> 00:35:44,200 Speaker 5: polls in the fall with an understanding as to whether 677 00:35:44,320 --> 00:35:50,600 Speaker 5: or not what the former president did was legal or illegal, 678 00:35:50,719 --> 00:35:54,439 Speaker 5: whether or not he is at fault as found by 679 00:35:54,680 --> 00:35:58,560 Speaker 5: the highest court in this nation. And I think that's 680 00:35:58,600 --> 00:36:01,960 Speaker 5: an important piece of information for voters to have when 681 00:36:01,960 --> 00:36:05,120 Speaker 5: they cast their ballot in November, especially if it looks 682 00:36:05,200 --> 00:36:09,760 Speaker 5: like it's going to be he is the Republican nominee. 683 00:36:11,960 --> 00:36:12,200 Speaker 7: Yeah. 684 00:36:12,239 --> 00:36:14,600 Speaker 4: Absolutely. Of course, it's not just this case that the 685 00:36:14,640 --> 00:36:17,359 Speaker 4: Supreme Court is planning to hear in April. They also 686 00:36:17,400 --> 00:36:20,839 Speaker 4: already have heard arguments in the fourteenth Amendment case. We 687 00:36:20,920 --> 00:36:23,560 Speaker 4: just saw in Illinois last night, a decision at first 688 00:36:23,560 --> 00:36:26,160 Speaker 4: to bar him from the ballot on grounds of the 689 00:36:26,160 --> 00:36:30,239 Speaker 4: Fourteenth Amendment, the insurrection clause. Basically, the judge making a 690 00:36:30,280 --> 00:36:32,800 Speaker 4: decision that he did engage in insurrection therefore shouldn't be 691 00:36:32,840 --> 00:36:35,680 Speaker 4: able to hold public office. That judge has now stayed that, 692 00:36:35,800 --> 00:36:38,400 Speaker 4: so he will remain on the ballot for now. But 693 00:36:38,480 --> 00:36:40,759 Speaker 4: when it comes to this Fourteenth Amendment question, knowing that 694 00:36:40,800 --> 00:36:43,440 Speaker 4: you did serve on the January sixth committee and dealt 695 00:36:43,440 --> 00:36:48,799 Speaker 4: with this insurrection question yourself, how would you hope the 696 00:36:48,840 --> 00:36:52,920 Speaker 4: Supreme Court decides should they give Trump a chance to 697 00:36:52,960 --> 00:36:56,120 Speaker 4: be on the ballot despite what happened on January sixth. 698 00:36:57,520 --> 00:37:00,760 Speaker 5: I think how I hope they decide is a little 699 00:37:00,800 --> 00:37:06,319 Speaker 5: bit different than what I realized politically is realistic on 700 00:37:06,560 --> 00:37:10,399 Speaker 5: what they will decide. I think given their comments during 701 00:37:10,440 --> 00:37:14,479 Speaker 5: the Colorado hearing the arguments for the Colorado case where 702 00:37:14,520 --> 00:37:19,080 Speaker 5: Colorado barred him for the ballot. It doesn't look like 703 00:37:19,200 --> 00:37:22,920 Speaker 5: they are going to find that it's okay for states 704 00:37:22,960 --> 00:37:26,279 Speaker 5: to keep him off the ballot for having participated in 705 00:37:26,320 --> 00:37:30,040 Speaker 5: an insurrection. But I do understand that the roots of 706 00:37:30,280 --> 00:37:34,080 Speaker 5: that provision is to prevent somebody who couldn't win at 707 00:37:34,080 --> 00:37:39,000 Speaker 5: the ballot from being able to take or to take 708 00:37:39,600 --> 00:37:42,840 Speaker 5: the position by force, and to provide some level of 709 00:37:42,880 --> 00:37:49,160 Speaker 5: accountability and punishment for that kind of behavior. And unfortunately, 710 00:37:49,239 --> 00:37:53,279 Speaker 5: I don't think that it's probably going to keep him 711 00:37:53,280 --> 00:37:54,360 Speaker 5: off the ballot. 712 00:37:56,040 --> 00:37:57,960 Speaker 3: I don't want to get you in trouble here, Congresswoman, 713 00:37:57,960 --> 00:38:00,239 Speaker 3: but do you still communicate with your former colleagues on 714 00:38:00,280 --> 00:38:03,200 Speaker 3: the January sixth Committee? Did you text each other after 715 00:38:03,200 --> 00:38:04,279 Speaker 3: that headline last night? 716 00:38:06,280 --> 00:38:09,879 Speaker 5: I won't get into the specifics of when we talk 717 00:38:09,960 --> 00:38:11,960 Speaker 5: to each other, but we do stay in touch. I 718 00:38:11,960 --> 00:38:17,319 Speaker 5: think you can't go through the intense experience that we 719 00:38:17,400 --> 00:38:22,120 Speaker 5: had on the January sixth Committee without building lifelong bonds. 720 00:38:22,160 --> 00:38:25,399 Speaker 5: That we certainly stay in touch. And of course we're 721 00:38:25,440 --> 00:38:28,759 Speaker 5: all watching to see what happens here over the next 722 00:38:28,760 --> 00:38:32,240 Speaker 5: few months and into this fall. 723 00:38:32,600 --> 00:38:35,359 Speaker 3: I know you share a lot of realities having come 724 00:38:35,400 --> 00:38:38,320 Speaker 3: off that experience together. Congressman, we thank you for joining 725 00:38:38,400 --> 00:38:41,080 Speaker 3: us today as the House does its work here to 726 00:38:41,120 --> 00:38:41,920 Speaker 3: avoid a shutdown. 727 00:38:41,960 --> 00:38:42,640 Speaker 1: It's good to see you. 728 00:38:42,640 --> 00:38:50,960 Speaker 3: Stephanie Murphy, former Democratic congresswoman from Florida. Thanks for listening 729 00:38:50,960 --> 00:38:54,279 Speaker 3: to the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe 730 00:38:54,320 --> 00:38:57,000 Speaker 3: if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify. 731 00:38:56,520 --> 00:38:58,560 Speaker 1: Or wherever you get your podcasts, and 732 00:38:58,640 --> 00:39:00,960 Speaker 3: You can find us live every week day from Washington, 733 00:39:01,040 --> 00:39:04,120 Speaker 3: DC at noontime Eastern at Bloomberg dot com.