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Speaker 1: Hello, friends, and welcome into Fantasy pros. This is the

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Speaker 1: Fantasy Baseball Podcast. I'm Chris Welsh, that is Joe Rico,

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Speaker 1: and we are here for you for twenty twenty four

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Speaker 1: to twenty twenty five's biggest rank risers. That's right, a

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Speaker 1: lot of players. If you were locked into the twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty four season with huge, big performances and a lot

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Speaker 1: of those guys you know are going to be good.

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Speaker 1: We're going to talk about some of those players, whether

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Speaker 1: it could be a theoretical rookie of the Year of

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Speaker 1: Jackson Merrill to rookies that had big performances. There are

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Speaker 1: guys that you know that maybe you weren't quite crazy

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Speaker 1: about going into the draft season that had these big years.

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Speaker 1: But the conversation today is going to be built around

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Speaker 1: where are they now? What are they going to look

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Speaker 1: like in twenty twenty five. So we're going to talk

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Speaker 1: about the guys that are taking the biggest rank rise

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Speaker 1: year over year, what they mean to your fantasy teams,

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Speaker 1: what we're buying, and all of the full breakdown. And

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Speaker 1: of course again I'm doing it with my friend, go Joe,

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Speaker 1: what's up, buddy. I know we're already preparing for the

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty five season. The World Series ended like two

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Speaker 1: weeks ago or a week ago or whatever it is,

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Speaker 1: So how is the prep going? And how about those Dodgers?

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Speaker 2: The season never really ends? Well should I know you

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Speaker 2: as a Dynasty guy, you go all year long. I

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Speaker 2: know I was kind of putting together rankings before the

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Speaker 2: season even ended, so it's just one long baseball calendar.

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Speaker 2: But yeah, those Dodgers, Man, if they get Soto and

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Speaker 2: Suzaki or something. We just did the free agency preview

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Speaker 2: if you guys missed that a few days ago, I

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Speaker 2: did it with Kelly Kirby. Check that out. If they

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Speaker 2: get Sodo and Suzaki, then I think there's gonna be

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Speaker 2: a lot of tears around baseball, but brighter topics today.

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Speaker 2: Talk about some risers, and it's great to do with you.

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Speaker 2: We were just together last weekend. I'm sorry we didn't

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Speaker 2: get to spend more time together, but always great when

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Speaker 2: we get to pop behind the mic man.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, we almost did a live show. We were almost

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Speaker 1: going to do a live show at First Pitch Arizona,

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Speaker 1: which if you guys have checked out as well, if

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Speaker 1: you follow us on the socials on TikTok on Instagram,

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Speaker 1: on YouTube here if you check out the shorts you've seen,

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Speaker 1: I've been doing some Arizona Fall League And what's really

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Speaker 1: fun about that too, is there some prospects that they're

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Speaker 1: not going to be Rank risers necessarily, but they are

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Speaker 1: going to be guys that year over year we're going

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Speaker 1: to have some production. I mean, one year ago Kyle

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Speaker 1: Manzarto was in the Arizona Fall League and then cut

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Speaker 1: to a year later he's hitting homers in the postseason.

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Speaker 1: But we'll have lots of coverage for that here on

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Speaker 1: the channel, which, by the way, if you're on YouTube,

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Speaker 1: I suspect you are already doing this, but maybe you haven't.

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Speaker 1: And if you're listening on the podcast, make sure you

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Speaker 1: subscribe to us YouTube dot com, says Fantashy pros MLB.

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Speaker 1: Make sure you are subscribed, turn on notifications so you

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Speaker 1: don't miss any of it, because we've got more off

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Speaker 1: season content than we've ever had before. And if you're

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Speaker 1: only on the YouTube side, make sure to do the

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Speaker 1: inverse check us out on the podcast side or on

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Speaker 1: all the major podcast networks. Subscribe because, like I said,

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Speaker 1: tons and tons of content. We actually really haven't had

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Speaker 1: a ton of off season content before on fantasy pros,

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Speaker 1: like in the Novembers and Decembers. But guess what, we're here.

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Speaker 1: We're here for you, Joe and I. We got you covered.

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Speaker 1: So let's jump into this the rank risers again, I

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Speaker 1: think you guys get the concept of it. It is

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Speaker 1: players that had you know, low to know ADPs last

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Speaker 1: year that had big years. And I think maybe the

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Speaker 1: hardcore person the people that are doing like NFBC drafts

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Speaker 1: right now, they might have some of these answers or

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Speaker 1: by the way, they are kind of pushing the narrative

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Speaker 1: to it. But I think one thing that happens is Okay, awesome, cool,

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Speaker 1: this guy had a great year. What does that mean

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Speaker 1: to next year? Especially if I jump into early drafts

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Speaker 1: and prep or even in that dynasty world, how can

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Speaker 1: I take advantage of it? So we are going to

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Speaker 1: talk about those players and what the early, the very

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Speaker 1: very early ADPs are looking like. And let's talk about

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Speaker 1: Number one with the current Well, I guess he's the

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Speaker 1: second highest, but he had the biggest variance between what

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Speaker 1: his twenty twenty four ADP was and where he's going

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Speaker 1: this year. Jared Duran last year around a one to

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Speaker 1: ninety seven, call it a two hundred EIGHTYP was actually

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Speaker 1: one of my big risers, one of my big targets

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Speaker 1: for last season, and it did pay off. He has

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Speaker 1: got a projected twenty twenty five ADP inside the top

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Speaker 1: twenty five, around twenty one. I believe this data we

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Speaker 1: have is this according to Yahoo early data or is

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Speaker 1: this the NFBC drafts, Joe.

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Speaker 2: So when you're hearing the twenty twenty four ADPs, I

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Speaker 2: did use yahoos because a lot of them are not

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Speaker 2: available anymore. The sites have kind of flipped over for

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Speaker 2: next season. And then when you're hearing the early ADP

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Speaker 2: that's from the NFBC drafts, the National Fantasy Baseball Championship,

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Speaker 2: there's been sixteen completed drafts. It's still very early, but

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Speaker 2: it's what we have to go on for now.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and it's good to know there's some structural things

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Speaker 1: with NFBC for like just everyday players that NFC does

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Speaker 1: a little bit different. Closers tend to go higher. Stolen

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Speaker 1: bases can be a little bit more of a chase.

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Speaker 1: Rookies people taking bigger shots, especially this type of year,

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Speaker 1: time of year, you're going to see people taking bigger shots,

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Speaker 1: but kicking it off with rank risers. Jared Duran twenty

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Speaker 1: one point eight into November here, that is a massive,

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Speaker 1: massive jump last season twenty one homers, thirty four stolen

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Speaker 1: bases with a two eighty five average. He was top

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Speaker 1: twenty five percentile and ex wOBA expected batting average, expected

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Speaker 1: slug average, exit velocity as well ninety point eight, a

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Speaker 1: very impressive number. His expected batting average, according to Baseball Savant,

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Speaker 1: was right around his actual batting average, and he upticked

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Speaker 1: his max exit velocities to one thirteen point nine. One

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Speaker 1: other fun fact to throw at you, Joe, with the

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Speaker 1: rank rising of Jaron Duran and maybe how you feel

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Speaker 1: about him and how this works is quite a few

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Speaker 1: players had twenty homers thirty stolen bases. I want to

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Speaker 1: say I should have gotten the actual math here if

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Speaker 1: I'm looking at it three, four, five, six, seven, eight

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Speaker 1: nine test. So I did a live one here, ten

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Speaker 1: players had twenty homers thirty stolen bases. Only three of

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Speaker 1: those players that had twenty homers and thirty plus stolen

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Speaker 1: bases had a two eighty or higher average. Those players

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Speaker 1: sho heo Tani, Bobby wit Junior, and Jared Duran. So

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Speaker 1: let's talk about the rank rise with Jared Duran. Do

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Speaker 1: you buy where he's going, do you think there's more room,

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Speaker 1: and just any general thoughts for twenty twenty five on Duran, Well.

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Speaker 2: He's fully priced already. There's no gradual increase, like he's

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Speaker 2: already a mid second round pick, and it's probably justified.

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Speaker 2: Like you're looking at a great lineup, a great ballpark,

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Speaker 2: everything that you just mentioned. He doesn't hurt you in

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Speaker 2: any category. RBI was not amazing at seventy five, but

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Speaker 2: he is a four and a half category guy with

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Speaker 2: a very talented group of players around him, and he

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Speaker 2: improved everywhere. Really. The strikeout rate went down, walks went up,

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Speaker 2: barrel right went from like five percent to nine percent.

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Speaker 2: There's a lot to really like with Duran. I feel

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Speaker 2: like he's not somebody if I was just doing one

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Speaker 2: draft that I'd necessarily want to take there. I'm I'm

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Speaker 2: more of a sucker for a track record personally. If

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Speaker 2: I can take somebody that's done it multiple times versus

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Speaker 2: somebody that's just done it once or twice, and I

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Speaker 2: generally prefer to go that route. But I really don't

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Speaker 2: have any problem with it. He's established himself. Honestly, even

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Speaker 2: going into this past season, he probably should have been

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Speaker 2: more of a target after what he did in twenty

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Speaker 2: twenty three, but there was some talk of maybe he's

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Speaker 2: not going to lead off and a few things that

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Speaker 2: scared him down draft boards. But he's established. He is

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Speaker 2: a stud. He's a stud fantasy player, and I think

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Speaker 2: the second round price is warranted, even if I'm a

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Speaker 2: little bit wary about paying it.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean there's maybe slight luck factors. His chase

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Speaker 1: contact percentage went up a decent amount, but his overall

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Speaker 1: chase percentage went down. You know, I'm with you on

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Speaker 1: the track record with a guy like Jared Duran, But

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Speaker 1: the one thing I might kick back a little bit

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Speaker 1: is you're looking for safety nets sometime and lowering your

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Speaker 1: strikeout percentage while raising your walk percentage, while doubling your

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Speaker 1: barrel percentage, while hitting it harder and having a good

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Speaker 1: batting average scoring over was one hundred and eleven runs

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Speaker 1: scored with a twenty thirty season. That's hard to just

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Speaker 1: walk into it.

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Speaker 3: Now.

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Speaker 1: I say all of that, and it's there's a little

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Speaker 1: reminiscence of Corbyn Carroll in the previous year in his

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Speaker 1: batting average absolutely tanked. But with Corbin Carroll, he was

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Speaker 1: able to maintain his fantasy value even when the batting

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Speaker 1: average went down. So Jared Duran is going to be

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Speaker 1: a wake up call for a lot of people of

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Speaker 1: having an almost two hundred and EIGHTP last season and

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Speaker 1: a top twenty five this year. Maybe people are gonna

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Speaker 1: chase stolen bases a little bit less. That's a possibility,

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Speaker 1: and if that happens, maybe he falls. I could see

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Speaker 1: him in the thirties or so. But in a fifteen

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Speaker 1: team roto, if you can get him towards the wheel

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Speaker 1: of that second to third round, I think he got

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Speaker 1: a lock. He was top ten and stolen bases on

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Speaker 1: the year. Like I said, the batting average is there,

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Speaker 1: and I think the home run power is sustainable. Jared

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Speaker 1: Duran moving up in twenty twenty five and you guys

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Speaker 1: are gonna be paying quite a bit more for him.

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Speaker 1: Let's start with some Jackson's Let's start with Actually, I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna move this the highest of the EIGHTP players we're

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Speaker 1: going to talk about today. This player has the number

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Speaker 1: one ADP at twenty point seventy five, just beating Jaron Duran.

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Speaker 1: He had a higher ADP last season according to Yahoo

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Speaker 1: one two. In one of our two Jackson's it is

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Speaker 1: Jackson Schurio. So you are going to have to pay

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Speaker 1: mid second round price for Jackson Churio if you want

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Speaker 1: to get in on the massively talented rookie who, by

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Speaker 1: the way of Jaron and Jackson Merrill, didn't quite have

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Speaker 1: the biggest statistical season if you're adding up those two guys.

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Speaker 1: Jackson Surio though twenty one homers, twenty two stolen bases,

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Speaker 1: hit two seventy five in his rookie year, an expected

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Speaker 1: batting average that supports it a two seventy eight expected

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Speaker 1: batting average. He had a twenty one percent k rate,

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Speaker 1: which you like to see good max ev numbers. Barreling

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Speaker 1: a little bit, you know, a little bit to go

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Speaker 1: with him. But Jackson Surio Sky's the limit type of

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Speaker 1: player you put up a twenty twenty season in your

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Speaker 1: rookie year. I think people end up looking at that

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Speaker 1: and say, where can we go from here? So let's

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Speaker 1: talk about it. Top twenty. You have to take Jackson

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Speaker 1: Curio before you take Jaron Durant. Is that the right

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Speaker 1: play in twenty twenty five, though.

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Speaker 2: For me personally, I probably will. Well, I'm a volume player.

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Speaker 2: I'll probably do ten or fifteen leagues. I'll probably do

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Speaker 2: it once or twice, just that fear of missing out

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Speaker 2: on what.

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Speaker 1: Was Surio over Duran or taking him in general.

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Speaker 2: Taking him in general. In terms of over Duran, I

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Speaker 2: think it's essentially a coin toss where if I was

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Speaker 2: doing ten drafts, I would probably do five and five.

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Speaker 2: If I had to slightly lean, it might be Duran.

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Speaker 2: He's had an extra year or two under his belt,

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Speaker 2: better ballpark, probably a better lineup. But Churio at twenty

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Speaker 2: years old to do what he did is ridiculous. Like

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Speaker 2: there's probably and you're the dynasty guy, Welsh, but I

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Speaker 2: think there's probably a time in the next five years

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Speaker 2: where he'll be the number one overall dynasty player. He'll

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Speaker 2: probably be a top five draft pick in redraft at

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Speaker 2: some point over the next five years as well. Like

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Speaker 2: if you just look at the second half, because he

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Speaker 2: did struggle a little bit in the first half, a

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Speaker 2: little bit up and down, but in sixty three second

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Speaker 2: half games, he hit three ten with twelve homers and

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Speaker 2: twenty excuse me, twelve homers and twelve stolen bases, thirty

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Speaker 2: nine runs, forty four RBI in just sixty three games.

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Speaker 2: At his age, you're projecting growth. You're gonna say, okay,

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Speaker 2: I mean, look at just the Steamer projections are out now.

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Speaker 2: He's directed for twenty seven homers, twenty six deals, in

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Speaker 2: a two to seventy batting average with good counting stats.

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Speaker 2: It's probably a second round pick, and Steamer, generally speaking,

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Speaker 2: is a little bit more conservative all projection systems are.

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Speaker 2: If Cherio went thirty five and thirty five and hit

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Speaker 2: three hundred, I wouldn't at all be surprised. So I

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Speaker 2: do think that he does warrant that pick. But another

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Speaker 2: guy fully priced at the beginning of draft season, there's

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Speaker 2: not really much room to go up. Yeah.

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Speaker 1: Oh, I didn't even realize Steamer projections were oute. That's

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Speaker 1: a fun play there. I think the thing that maybe

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Speaker 1: takes Cheerio out of being like the number one overall

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Speaker 1: is if you don't believe he is going to be

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Speaker 1: at the tippy top of like elite stolen bases. Though,

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Speaker 1: here's something I would throw at you. Ninety seventh percent

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Speaker 1: Oul so top three percent of the league in sprint

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Speaker 1: speed twenty nine point seven, one of the fastest young players,

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Speaker 1: and you can see Steamer already building in just a

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Speaker 1: pretty massive increase as far as the power goes. I mean,

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Speaker 1: Max ev went in favor of Jaron duran but Jackson

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Speaker 1: Churio is up there, probably going to continue barely in

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Speaker 1: the ball even more as he goes on, and you know,

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Speaker 1: it's growth to age. One of the things I would

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Speaker 1: point out that is so massively impressive about about his

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Speaker 1: hitting skills batting average against fastballs two eighty two this

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Speaker 1: past year, breaking pitches two seventy four, and two forty

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Speaker 1: one against off speed. There wasn't really anything that destroyed

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Speaker 1: him by the way. Expected batting average against breaking and

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Speaker 1: off speed both higher than what he actually performed. So

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Speaker 1: it's a guy that didn't strike out a bunch, walked

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Speaker 1: about the same as Jackson or Jared Durant. Has a

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Speaker 1: ton of upside, and I think the offensive profile maybe

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Speaker 1: it starts to feel more like a Fernando Tatis junior

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Speaker 1: type of thing, where you know, like Ronald Acunya has

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Speaker 1: that number one overall type of player of like he's

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Speaker 1: hitting thirty homers and stealing fifty to sixty stolen bases,

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Speaker 1: like that's the thing that gets at number one spot.

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Speaker 1: But if Cherio became a Wan Soto in the future

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Speaker 1: or Fernando Tatis, I think that's where the profile goes.

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Speaker 1: It's just do you want to pay for it in

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Speaker 1: the second year And I think ultimately you know you're

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Speaker 1: gonna take that risk this season and it could be

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Speaker 1: a big payoff, except that it's top twenty. It's a

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Speaker 1: top twenty price overall. If you and you, if you

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Speaker 1: were picking between I know you said against the two

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Speaker 1: ten leagues, how many shares of Duran or Cheerio do

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Speaker 1: you have if you have to pick them in the top,

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Speaker 1: you know, between twenty and twenty two.

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Speaker 2: I'd probably go like sixty percent Duran, forty percent Marrill

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Speaker 2: something like that. It just you get you get the

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Speaker 2: great ballpark. There is a better supporting cast.

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Speaker 1: I just but of those ten leagues, though, how many

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Speaker 1: we have actual drafting? Like you, those are the two

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Speaker 1: players at like twenty to twenty two, two leagues, three four.

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Speaker 1: That's not really your style.

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Speaker 2: I've only done one league so far and I haven't

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Speaker 2: landed on I didn't land on either of them through

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Speaker 2: the first five rounds, I'd probably say, like two for Duran,

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Speaker 2: one for Churio or something like that. I'm I'm not

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Speaker 2: somebody who generally wants to like overexpose myself to a

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Speaker 2: particular player in the early rounds. If it's picked three

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Speaker 2: and I really like him, sure, But if one of

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Speaker 2: those picks, like if he does get hurt or if

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Speaker 2: there is a you know, Corbyn Carroll type of situation

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Speaker 2: where he dies. I mean, Corban Carroll ended up being

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Speaker 2: very valuable. But if a guy does have the bottom

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Speaker 2: follow from under him or whatever, I don't want to

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Speaker 2: have too much invested in a second, third, fourth round pick,

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Speaker 2: So I'd probably say, you know, two Duran, one Churio,

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Speaker 2: something like that.

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Speaker 1: I mean, the sad thing about the first two players

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Speaker 1: we're talking about, it's gonna be really hard to have

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Speaker 1: them together in fantas, so you might have to make

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Speaker 1: your choice, and your choice, you know, Duran has the

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Speaker 1: advantage of the stolen bases and the runs. I do

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Speaker 1: think Churio has got the potential to be the type

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Speaker 1: of player that is completely five tooled out. Last season,

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Speaker 1: he had seventy nine RBIs in round just under well,

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Speaker 1: it's a little over five hundred plate appearances, so you

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Speaker 1: give him six fifty on the plate appearances, you get

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Speaker 1: a little bit higher in the lineup. I don't think

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Speaker 1: it's crazy to think that he's one hundred hundred and

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Speaker 1: thirty plus guy. And that's where you're starting to talk about,

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Speaker 1: like I said, the Tatis and the Soto type of range.

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Speaker 1: But there's a lot of inherent risk. You're just not

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Speaker 1: gonna be able to take those two players together. You'll

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Speaker 1: probably have to end up making some big decisions.

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Speaker 2: Now.

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Speaker 1: A player that you could potentially pair with one of

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Speaker 1: these if you want to have I don't know if

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Speaker 1: you want to call it risk or just a really

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Speaker 1: young team is number three on the list, Jackson Merrill.

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Speaker 1: So there's our two Jackson's. We're not going to be

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Speaker 1: bringing the third one in here. Jackson Merrill an ADP

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Speaker 1: of around two thirty last season. Two thirty two was

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Speaker 1: the Yahoo data we have this year in the projected

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Speaker 1: ADPs as far as what we've seen on NFBC thirty

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Speaker 1: three point eight. So you know that's a round a

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Speaker 1: top third round fifteen team RODO player pushing the third

329
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Speaker 1: fourth round in a twelve team head to head Jackson

330
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Speaker 1: Merril twenty four homers, sixteen stolen bases with the two

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Speaker 1: ninety two average. This though wild. Look at Baseball Savants

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Speaker 1: page top. I'm going to round this out instead of

333
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Speaker 1: giving you the exact essentially top five percentile in the

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Speaker 1: league and expected wOBA, expected batting average and expected slug

335
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Speaker 1: something that people did not as soh eate Jackson Merrill

336
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Speaker 1: with also top twenty percentile of sprint speed. He struck

337
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Speaker 1: out only seventeen percent of the time, had a better

338
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Speaker 1: barrel rate than both of the players that we just

339
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Speaker 1: talked about, had an over one ten max TV, and

340
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Speaker 1: his expected batting average higher than where he performed out

341
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Speaker 1: one of the best in the league threeh eight. I mean,

342
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Speaker 1: I told you his expected batting average was the top

343
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Speaker 1: two percent tile of the league. So Jackson Merrill feels

344
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Speaker 1: like there's some lack of I think maybe big offensive

345
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Speaker 1: upside or he overperformed. But in a group of three

346
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Speaker 1: players that really popped off this season, what say you

347
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Speaker 1: on Jackson Merril with a slight discount versus these two

348
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Speaker 1: guys and taking him in the third round, Well, that is.

349
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Speaker 2: A huge, huge, part of it. I mean, if we're

350
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Speaker 2: just talking about the price, I think I'm going Meryl there.

351
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Speaker 2: You're securing somebody else in the second round, or maybe hell,

352
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Speaker 2: you take one of those guys in the second round

353
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Speaker 2: and then take Meryl in the third. I went through

354
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Speaker 2: a good chunk of the year thinking I was going

355
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Speaker 2: to be fading him, thinking Okay, this is kind of

356
00:16:56,080 --> 00:16:58,480
Speaker 2: he's maxed out. There's not really another level to go

357
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Speaker 2: from here, and then he just caught fire down the

358
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Speaker 2: stretch to the point where, like you mentioned, he expected

359
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Speaker 2: batting average is over three hundred. He's barely striking out.

360
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Speaker 2: You know, he's doing everything for you in a very

361
00:17:10,720 --> 00:17:13,040
Speaker 2: solid line. He was a five win player in his

362
00:17:13,080 --> 00:17:16,120
Speaker 2: first season. You just don't really see that very often.

363
00:17:16,560 --> 00:17:20,439
Speaker 2: The barrel rate is double digits. Everything is really really great. Like,

364
00:17:20,480 --> 00:17:22,919
Speaker 2: there's nothing I can really point to as a flaw

365
00:17:23,320 --> 00:17:26,400
Speaker 2: in his offensive game. I mean, if we're gonna pick nets,

366
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Speaker 2: maybe you could say, Okay, I'd like him to steal

367
00:17:28,119 --> 00:17:30,400
Speaker 2: a little bit more, But sixteen steals on nineteen attempts.

368
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Speaker 2: With everything else he does, I think that the third

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Speaker 2: round is totally justified for maryl and you might even

370
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Speaker 2: see him pushing up into the second round in some leagues.

371
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Speaker 2: I don't think he's gonna maintain shortstop eligibility anywhere because

372
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Speaker 2: he didn't play there at all last year. I think

373
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Speaker 2: he's just gonna be outfield. But maybe in some shallower formats,

374
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Speaker 2: like I know, Yahoo, sometimes the eligibility is a little

375
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Speaker 2: bit mixed up. You might even get a second position

376
00:17:51,240 --> 00:17:53,760
Speaker 2: out of him. There's nothing I can really say against

377
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Speaker 2: Jackson Merrill at this point. He is a fantastic third

378
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Speaker 2: round pick, and I went through a lot of the

379
00:17:57,240 --> 00:17:58,720
Speaker 2: year thinking that I was gonna be fading him, but

380
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Speaker 2: he's become a target for me over the last couple months.

381
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Speaker 1: Those Steamer projections, by the way, which you can check

382
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Speaker 1: over on Fangraphs if you guys want to check those out,

383
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Speaker 1: that are out. Jackson Merrill projected twenty five homers, fourteen

384
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Speaker 1: stolen bases, and a two seventy nine batting average. So

385
00:18:17,000 --> 00:18:19,359
Speaker 1: there's a real floor that exists with him if you

386
00:18:19,400 --> 00:18:21,959
Speaker 1: don't want to take massive risks. I will say a

387
00:18:22,119 --> 00:18:25,400
Speaker 1: huge advantage in points leagues if he is also going

388
00:18:25,440 --> 00:18:27,240
Speaker 1: around this type of ADP. He's going to be a

389
00:18:27,240 --> 00:18:29,919
Speaker 1: great points league player because he does not you know,

390
00:18:29,960 --> 00:18:34,080
Speaker 1: he didn't build his entire bank of value off of like, oh,

391
00:18:34,119 --> 00:18:35,920
Speaker 1: I steal bases and I have a good average and

392
00:18:35,960 --> 00:18:38,879
Speaker 1: don't strike out. No, he's hitting homers, and the projections

393
00:18:39,359 --> 00:18:42,480
Speaker 1: feel even more positive about his power output. And you

394
00:18:42,520 --> 00:18:45,240
Speaker 1: go and put that with Santa Bogarts and Fernando Tatis

395
00:18:45,320 --> 00:18:48,320
Speaker 1: Junior and Manny Machado in him hitting higher. I love

396
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Speaker 1: Jackson Merrill, and I think this is one that it's

397
00:18:52,640 --> 00:18:55,320
Speaker 1: a little bit more comfortable from the rank rise perspective.

398
00:18:55,400 --> 00:18:59,520
Speaker 1: You're talking about essentially two hundred spots year over year

399
00:18:59,600 --> 00:19:02,159
Speaker 1: that's going to have changed. But it doesn't hit quite

400
00:19:02,200 --> 00:19:05,600
Speaker 1: at home like Jared Durant and Jackson Turio do for people.

401
00:19:05,640 --> 00:19:08,200
Speaker 1: When you look at the ADPs, it's a little bit softer.

402
00:19:08,560 --> 00:19:12,360
Speaker 1: You would love some stolen base upside. But I thinking

403
00:19:12,600 --> 00:19:14,639
Speaker 1: we're moving out a little bit from the land of

404
00:19:14,720 --> 00:19:17,639
Speaker 1: needing to really really go nuts about stolen bases in

405
00:19:17,680 --> 00:19:21,520
Speaker 1: Fantasy Believe it was thirty players when I was looking before,

406
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Speaker 1: close to thirty players. Maybe it was twenty four that

407
00:19:24,560 --> 00:19:28,360
Speaker 1: stole thirty or more bases this past year. Sometimes they're emptier.

408
00:19:28,680 --> 00:19:31,480
Speaker 1: Victor Robliss was a little bit emptier, but you can

409
00:19:31,520 --> 00:19:34,880
Speaker 1: find those stolen bases, but it's when you can find

410
00:19:34,880 --> 00:19:38,680
Speaker 1: those stolen bases paired with power and batting average, that's

411
00:19:38,720 --> 00:19:41,760
Speaker 1: where the value is in batting average and power seem

412
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Speaker 1: to actually be weighing a little bit further into what

413
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Speaker 1: people need to be focusing on more than what has

414
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Speaker 1: traditionally been stolen bases a whole lot. Let's move to

415
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Speaker 1: our first pitcher, number four on the list of rank risers.

416
00:19:54,960 --> 00:19:57,439
Speaker 1: I am very proud of this one because this was

417
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Speaker 1: one of my highest shares, one of my biggest table

418
00:20:00,480 --> 00:20:03,399
Speaker 1: stomps of players last year, and it didn't start off well.

419
00:20:03,560 --> 00:20:07,359
Speaker 1: He actually was a player that started off the season

420
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Speaker 1: of that week before in Japan and got blown up

421
00:20:11,040 --> 00:20:13,240
Speaker 1: by the Dodgers, and we're talking about Michael King. But

422
00:20:13,400 --> 00:20:16,119
Speaker 1: Michael King was able to bounce back and put up

423
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Speaker 1: a phenomenal season. He was one twenty five on ADP,

424
00:20:21,359 --> 00:20:23,840
Speaker 1: but seventy one in current ADP. Now, I know that like,

425
00:20:23,920 --> 00:20:26,480
Speaker 1: numerically that doesn't feel like that's a huge jump, but

426
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Speaker 1: from the pitching market, it really is. One twenty five

427
00:20:30,400 --> 00:20:32,720
Speaker 1: was being like, that's actually being a little bit generous.

428
00:20:32,760 --> 00:20:34,720
Speaker 1: In some spots. He would even go into the one

429
00:20:34,840 --> 00:20:39,159
Speaker 1: seventies and one eighties. Michael King this past season a

430
00:20:39,280 --> 00:20:43,240
Speaker 1: two nine to five ERA after winning thirteen games, over

431
00:20:43,359 --> 00:20:46,480
Speaker 1: two hundred strikeouts and one hundred and seventy three innings.

432
00:20:46,600 --> 00:20:48,520
Speaker 1: The one hundred and seventy three is also a really

433
00:20:48,600 --> 00:20:51,320
Speaker 1: key point I want to bring up because I cited

434
00:20:51,359 --> 00:20:53,520
Speaker 1: a lot of what he did as a reliever. People

435
00:20:53,520 --> 00:20:55,720
Speaker 1: did not believe that he was going to be able

436
00:20:55,760 --> 00:20:58,840
Speaker 1: to stack up big innings this year. One seventy is

437
00:20:58,880 --> 00:21:02,560
Speaker 1: the new two twenty, and he had over two hundred strikeouts.

438
00:21:03,359 --> 00:21:06,080
Speaker 1: Hard hit wasn't happening. He gave up some of the

439
00:21:06,119 --> 00:21:10,560
Speaker 1: weakest contact in baseball, had a twenty seven percent K percentage,

440
00:21:10,560 --> 00:21:14,040
Speaker 1: which you absolutely love to see. People weren't barreling it up.

441
00:21:14,119 --> 00:21:18,520
Speaker 1: He's expected average expected ERA was relatively in the same

442
00:21:18,560 --> 00:21:22,560
Speaker 1: general space as his era. It was just an absolute

443
00:21:22,680 --> 00:21:25,560
Speaker 1: league winning type of SP where you probably drafted him

444
00:21:25,600 --> 00:21:29,320
Speaker 1: as a SP four or five at best, and he

445
00:21:29,400 --> 00:21:33,119
Speaker 1: performed as maybe one of your best seventy still isn't crazy.

446
00:21:33,200 --> 00:21:35,560
Speaker 1: Sometimes we have to pay some wild prices for this

447
00:21:36,000 --> 00:21:40,199
Speaker 1: probably ends up being your SP three, maybe two, depending

448
00:21:40,240 --> 00:21:42,919
Speaker 1: the type of league. Let's talk about Michael King. Do

449
00:21:43,000 --> 00:21:46,080
Speaker 1: you think the rank adjustment for this year is justified

450
00:21:46,080 --> 00:21:48,000
Speaker 1: that he is a top seventy five overall player.

451
00:21:48,440 --> 00:21:51,200
Speaker 2: I think he probably is my early starting pitcher rankings.

452
00:21:51,200 --> 00:21:53,080
Speaker 2: I have him at number nineteen and we were just

453
00:21:53,119 --> 00:21:55,960
Speaker 2: in Arizona, and I think Nick Poulock HadAM at inside

454
00:21:56,000 --> 00:21:58,320
Speaker 2: his top ten. Like people are going to be really

455
00:21:58,359 --> 00:21:59,920
Speaker 2: really hyped up on him if you look at where

456
00:21:59,920 --> 00:22:02,640
Speaker 2: he going in terms of in relation to other pitchers,

457
00:22:02,800 --> 00:22:05,639
Speaker 2: right in the same range as Luis Castillo, Franber Valdez,

458
00:22:05,920 --> 00:22:09,680
Speaker 2: ahead of Imonaga, ahead of Aaron Nola, Freddy Peralta. He

459
00:22:09,800 --> 00:22:12,480
Speaker 2: is expensive, you know, and he probably should be. I

460
00:22:12,600 --> 00:22:14,680
Speaker 2: was a fade on him last year. You talked about

461
00:22:14,680 --> 00:22:17,040
Speaker 2: the innings concerns. I was worried about how his command

462
00:22:17,080 --> 00:22:19,439
Speaker 2: would look because he's always been kind of pushing the

463
00:22:19,440 --> 00:22:22,320
Speaker 2: double digit walk rates seven eight nine percent, and he

464
00:22:22,400 --> 00:22:24,840
Speaker 2: still was in the eight point seven percent range. But

465
00:22:24,880 --> 00:22:28,879
Speaker 2: the strikeouts really offset that. Everything was was really great.

466
00:22:29,600 --> 00:22:31,760
Speaker 2: The whip was maybe a touch higher than you would

467
00:22:31,760 --> 00:22:33,520
Speaker 2: have loved it to be at one point one to nine,

468
00:22:33,520 --> 00:22:35,439
Speaker 2: but it's not a huge concern. He's pitching for a

469
00:22:35,480 --> 00:22:38,719
Speaker 2: really good team. The strikeout upside is there. The estimators,

470
00:22:38,720 --> 00:22:40,840
Speaker 2: not just the XCRA, but everything was in like the

471
00:22:40,880 --> 00:22:44,720
Speaker 2: three three to three five range, so he didn't really overperform.

472
00:22:44,960 --> 00:22:47,200
Speaker 2: The luck numbers were pretty good. Ten percent homer to

473
00:22:47,280 --> 00:22:50,199
Speaker 2: fly ball, two ninety babbit, seventy five percent left on

474
00:22:50,240 --> 00:22:52,360
Speaker 2: base rate. Like it wasn't one of those seasons where

475
00:22:52,400 --> 00:22:53,520
Speaker 2: you look at it and be like, oh okay, like

476
00:22:53,560 --> 00:22:55,560
Speaker 2: there was an obvious regression in coming. This looks like

477
00:22:55,600 --> 00:22:57,600
Speaker 2: it can be the baseline for Michael King. And now

478
00:22:57,600 --> 00:22:59,959
Speaker 2: that he has set that innings plateau, if he hit

479
00:23:00,000 --> 00:23:01,840
Speaker 2: two hundred next year, I don't think it would really

480
00:23:01,880 --> 00:23:04,439
Speaker 2: be that surprising to us. No.

481
00:23:04,560 --> 00:23:05,960
Speaker 1: I mean, in him being able to get to one

482
00:23:06,000 --> 00:23:09,240
Speaker 1: seventy with growth and no injury, probably going to get

483
00:23:09,320 --> 00:23:11,919
Speaker 1: near you know. I mean, they could stabilize that it

484
00:23:11,960 --> 00:23:14,040
Speaker 1: could be around one point eighty. You got more teams

485
00:23:14,040 --> 00:23:17,800
Speaker 1: that might potentially look at doing six man rotations. I

486
00:23:17,800 --> 00:23:19,639
Speaker 1: think the Dodgers are opening up to it. Not say

487
00:23:19,680 --> 00:23:21,800
Speaker 1: that the Padres are going to do it, but I

488
00:23:21,800 --> 00:23:24,359
Speaker 1: think you get to one seventy coming off of being

489
00:23:24,440 --> 00:23:26,760
Speaker 1: like a reliever the majority of your career, have the

490
00:23:26,840 --> 00:23:31,119
Speaker 1: success that you had. I think, you know, progression of

491
00:23:31,200 --> 00:23:34,040
Speaker 1: stats and progression of innings is definitely in his future,

492
00:23:34,359 --> 00:23:36,159
Speaker 1: and I think the thing to feel positive about that

493
00:23:36,240 --> 00:23:39,120
Speaker 1: it's not a one necessarily a big one year wonder

494
00:23:39,280 --> 00:23:42,080
Speaker 1: is what you mentioned. The estimators are still relatively close,

495
00:23:42,280 --> 00:23:44,800
Speaker 1: like he could have some regression off of a sub

496
00:23:44,840 --> 00:23:47,800
Speaker 1: three era. If he's a three to three guy and

497
00:23:47,840 --> 00:23:50,119
Speaker 1: he's still striking out almost thirty percent of the guys

498
00:23:50,119 --> 00:23:53,320
Speaker 1: and has two hundred and twenty five strikeouts, the value

499
00:23:53,359 --> 00:23:56,080
Speaker 1: is still there with maybe more potential wins if this

500
00:23:56,160 --> 00:23:58,159
Speaker 1: team is you know, you got Jackson Merrill into the

501
00:23:58,200 --> 00:24:01,080
Speaker 1: second year, You've got Fernando Tati for more majority of

502
00:24:01,080 --> 00:24:03,119
Speaker 1: the year. If they can stay healthy, it could be

503
00:24:03,200 --> 00:24:05,639
Speaker 1: even more of a win boon for Michael King. So

504
00:24:05,920 --> 00:24:09,040
Speaker 1: he is one of the biggest SP rank risers year

505
00:24:09,119 --> 00:24:11,160
Speaker 1: over year that people. I think it's going to shock people,

506
00:24:11,240 --> 00:24:14,080
Speaker 1: especially if they dipped out a little bit early. Let's

507
00:24:14,080 --> 00:24:16,600
Speaker 1: go into number five. We are going back to the

508
00:24:16,680 --> 00:24:18,840
Speaker 1: hitting kind of a guy that I struggle with at

509
00:24:18,880 --> 00:24:23,080
Speaker 1: some times just a little bit. Here is Brent Rooker.

510
00:24:23,440 --> 00:24:27,680
Speaker 1: Brent Rooker, too forty seven was the rank last year,

511
00:24:28,240 --> 00:24:31,720
Speaker 1: ends up inside the top eighty this season. I believe

512
00:24:31,760 --> 00:24:36,359
Speaker 1: it's seventy seven in early in early drafts, I would say,

513
00:24:36,359 --> 00:24:39,600
Speaker 1: mock drafts in early drafts. Why do I struggle with him?

514
00:24:39,640 --> 00:24:41,760
Speaker 1: It's kind of more from a dynasty perspective because he

515
00:24:41,800 --> 00:24:44,280
Speaker 1: is a little bit older, you know, how do you

516
00:24:44,320 --> 00:24:46,520
Speaker 1: project out that value? And he had a career year,

517
00:24:46,640 --> 00:24:48,960
Speaker 1: but he is coming off of two straight thirty home

518
00:24:49,000 --> 00:24:51,760
Speaker 1: run seasons. He had thirty nine homers this past year

519
00:24:52,080 --> 00:24:57,399
Speaker 1: with an almost fifty point gain in his batting average.

520
00:24:57,520 --> 00:25:00,199
Speaker 1: If you like to look at Baseball Savant and you

521
00:25:00,320 --> 00:25:02,800
Speaker 1: like to see red across the board, go and look

522
00:25:02,800 --> 00:25:06,280
Speaker 1: at Brent Rooker. It is top four percent talent expected wOBA,

523
00:25:06,440 --> 00:25:09,280
Speaker 1: top three percent talent expected slug, one of the best

524
00:25:09,480 --> 00:25:13,320
Speaker 1: barrel baseball players out this last season, sixteen point six percent,

525
00:25:13,720 --> 00:25:16,560
Speaker 1: top ten percentile of hard hit. I'm telling you all

526
00:25:16,600 --> 00:25:20,120
Speaker 1: these things. Is a really, really solid hitter who cut

527
00:25:20,160 --> 00:25:23,960
Speaker 1: down his strikeout percentage a decent amount, absolutely barrels and

528
00:25:24,040 --> 00:25:28,119
Speaker 1: hits everything hard. Even with the a's, he was able

529
00:25:28,119 --> 00:25:31,040
Speaker 1: to put up some big, big counting stats in those

530
00:25:31,080 --> 00:25:34,240
Speaker 1: thirty nine homers and get to over one hundred RBI

531
00:25:34,320 --> 00:25:38,000
Speaker 1: one hundred and twelve. Brent Rooker an almost two hundred

532
00:25:38,040 --> 00:25:40,679
Speaker 1: spot boost. He's a top one hundred player because of

533
00:25:40,680 --> 00:25:44,160
Speaker 1: that big power. What say you, mister Joe Rico.

534
00:25:44,520 --> 00:25:47,680
Speaker 2: It's justified. You know, he's somebody that is going to

535
00:25:47,760 --> 00:25:50,439
Speaker 2: have I think a big difference between his minimum and

536
00:25:50,480 --> 00:25:53,760
Speaker 2: his maximum pick and already it's huge. Forty six is

537
00:25:54,000 --> 00:25:56,280
Speaker 2: the highest he's gone. One hundred and thirty eight is

538
00:25:56,280 --> 00:25:58,560
Speaker 2: the latest he's gone and drafts, and I think part

539
00:25:58,600 --> 00:26:01,080
Speaker 2: of it is that utility only designation that he's going

540
00:26:01,160 --> 00:26:04,119
Speaker 2: to have in some formats. He played fourteen games in

541
00:26:04,160 --> 00:26:06,280
Speaker 2: the outfield coming back from an injury. He was dehing

542
00:26:06,320 --> 00:26:08,439
Speaker 2: most of the time, so that could be something in

543
00:26:08,440 --> 00:26:10,840
Speaker 2: a given room that pushes him down, but he'll probably

544
00:26:10,840 --> 00:26:13,560
Speaker 2: get outfield eligibility back. So just a note there that

545
00:26:13,600 --> 00:26:15,520
Speaker 2: you might draft him as utility and then get to

546
00:26:15,520 --> 00:26:18,080
Speaker 2: put him into your outfield spot. There's nothing in the

547
00:26:18,160 --> 00:26:20,280
Speaker 2: data in terms of the hard hit that makes me

548
00:26:20,359 --> 00:26:23,359
Speaker 2: worried at all, especially going from the Coliseum to a

549
00:26:23,359 --> 00:26:25,400
Speaker 2: PCL park, and from what I understand, it's not one

550
00:26:25,400 --> 00:26:27,879
Speaker 2: of the more hitter friendly PCL parks, but it's still

551
00:26:28,240 --> 00:26:30,160
Speaker 2: quite an upgrade from the Coliseum.

552
00:26:30,200 --> 00:26:32,720
Speaker 1: It's a minor league park, Yeah, it's a minor league Park.

553
00:26:32,760 --> 00:26:33,320
Speaker 1: It's crazy.

554
00:26:33,560 --> 00:26:35,520
Speaker 2: They are going to make some adjustments, I think, but

555
00:26:35,560 --> 00:26:37,600
Speaker 2: he should still like he might hit fifty home runs

556
00:26:37,600 --> 00:26:39,520
Speaker 2: next year. He might hit forty five. Fifty home runs

557
00:26:39,560 --> 00:26:42,080
Speaker 2: wouldn't surprise me at all. Now I don't know if

558
00:26:42,080 --> 00:26:43,920
Speaker 2: he's gonna get double digit steals again. And the one

559
00:26:43,920 --> 00:26:46,359
Speaker 2: thing that I am worried about is the batting average.

560
00:26:46,400 --> 00:26:48,600
Speaker 2: He had a three sixty two Babbitt he hit two

561
00:26:48,720 --> 00:26:51,920
Speaker 2: ninety three. The Steamer projections have him at two forty three.

562
00:26:51,960 --> 00:26:53,719
Speaker 2: I think that's probably correct. He's probably about a two

563
00:26:53,760 --> 00:26:56,360
Speaker 2: fifty hitter. But if it comes with forty plus homers

564
00:26:56,760 --> 00:26:59,639
Speaker 2: in an increasingly solid lineup, I know. Another year of

565
00:26:59,720 --> 00:27:02,919
Speaker 2: Gala off Shade Langeliers was great, Lawrence Butler, there are

566
00:27:03,000 --> 00:27:05,680
Speaker 2: some promising pieces there. This could be a thirty five,

567
00:27:06,040 --> 00:27:08,600
Speaker 2: one hundred and one hundred guy very very easily, if

568
00:27:08,640 --> 00:27:10,840
Speaker 2: not forty hundred and one hundred. Just don't expect it

569
00:27:10,880 --> 00:27:12,520
Speaker 2: to come with a three hundred batting average again. But

570
00:27:12,560 --> 00:27:14,440
Speaker 2: wheels are up for Brent Ruger and Sacramento.

571
00:27:15,320 --> 00:27:16,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think you did a really good job of

572
00:27:16,920 --> 00:27:19,320
Speaker 1: pointing out a couple of the issues. The babbip like

573
00:27:19,440 --> 00:27:22,640
Speaker 1: it tells a story of the batting average coming down.

574
00:27:22,680 --> 00:27:24,159
Speaker 1: That's one of those things that I always kind of

575
00:27:24,160 --> 00:27:26,560
Speaker 1: struggled with with him being a two ninety plus hitter.

576
00:27:26,960 --> 00:27:29,280
Speaker 1: I think the other thing I'm not sure if you hit,

577
00:27:29,320 --> 00:27:31,920
Speaker 1: and I kind of glossed over, is the strikeout percentage.

578
00:27:31,920 --> 00:27:34,119
Speaker 1: He's always been a high strikeout guy. He lowered it,

579
00:27:34,320 --> 00:27:36,600
Speaker 1: but it was still twenty eight percent. Steamer projection is

580
00:27:36,640 --> 00:27:38,600
Speaker 1: around thirty because it's taking you know, more of like

581
00:27:38,600 --> 00:27:40,880
Speaker 1: a three year window, so I see why it's doing that.

582
00:27:41,240 --> 00:27:44,399
Speaker 1: An eye opener though, going from positive to negatives with

583
00:27:44,520 --> 00:27:48,000
Speaker 1: him when you want to look at projections, is he

584
00:27:48,080 --> 00:27:51,360
Speaker 1: is within I don't know, one to two, just statistical

585
00:27:51,400 --> 00:27:54,160
Speaker 1: points in every category of matt Olsen. So like think

586
00:27:54,160 --> 00:27:57,160
Speaker 1: of that, Like if matt Olsen were costing I don't

587
00:27:57,160 --> 00:27:59,600
Speaker 1: know what his ADP is in this show here, but

588
00:27:59,640 --> 00:28:03,440
Speaker 1: if we're costing let's say forty five, Brenton Rooker would

589
00:28:03,440 --> 00:28:06,240
Speaker 1: be one of those players you can't do the positional thing,

590
00:28:06,280 --> 00:28:09,040
Speaker 1: but you could say, hey, you're paying you know, top

591
00:28:09,080 --> 00:28:12,080
Speaker 1: forty five for that guy. I can get his stats

592
00:28:13,000 --> 00:28:16,040
Speaker 1: three rounds later or four rounds later in Brenton Rooker

593
00:28:16,040 --> 00:28:18,200
Speaker 1: if you want to do that, I think the ballpark

594
00:28:18,240 --> 00:28:21,320
Speaker 1: factor gives me a little bit more optimism for some

595
00:28:21,359 --> 00:28:23,119
Speaker 1: of the negatives that are out there. But you know,

596
00:28:23,160 --> 00:28:26,040
Speaker 1: projections are still pretty friendly for him. Around ninety ninety

597
00:28:26,160 --> 00:28:29,840
Speaker 1: thirty four, Homers like Brent Rooker is definitely on the

598
00:28:29,960 --> 00:28:33,200
Speaker 1: uptick for big power And again, are you still chasing

599
00:28:33,200 --> 00:28:35,720
Speaker 1: stolen bases? I don't know. I think power and batting

600
00:28:35,760 --> 00:28:37,760
Speaker 1: average is going to be something that's chase even a

601
00:28:37,840 --> 00:28:40,360
Speaker 1: tiny bit more. Want to let everybody know before we

602
00:28:40,440 --> 00:28:42,680
Speaker 1: get to the rest of these bad boys that we

603
00:28:42,880 --> 00:28:44,760
Speaker 1: here at Fantasy Pros have a great offer. If you've

604
00:28:44,800 --> 00:28:47,479
Speaker 1: never checked out our guys over at Betting Pros, you

605
00:28:47,520 --> 00:28:51,440
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606
00:28:51,440 --> 00:28:56,040
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607
00:28:56,320 --> 00:28:59,120
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608
00:28:59,160 --> 00:29:01,960
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609
00:29:02,240 --> 00:29:07,920
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610
00:29:08,000 --> 00:29:12,400
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611
00:29:12,480 --> 00:29:15,360
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612
00:29:15,400 --> 00:29:18,600
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613
00:29:18,600 --> 00:29:20,600
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614
00:29:20,640 --> 00:29:22,840
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615
00:29:23,080 --> 00:29:25,680
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616
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617
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618
00:29:34,720 --> 00:29:37,720
Speaker 1: All right, let's talk about number six on the list

619
00:29:37,720 --> 00:29:39,920
Speaker 1: here we are going down. This was a fun one.

620
00:29:39,960 --> 00:29:41,880
Speaker 1: I had him in a lot of dynasty spots and

621
00:29:41,920 --> 00:29:43,520
Speaker 1: people are trying to get him from me at the

622
00:29:43,600 --> 00:29:46,000
Speaker 1: end of the season, because I don't know if everybody

623
00:29:46,160 --> 00:29:49,640
Speaker 1: was in on what a good season zach Netto was.

624
00:29:49,760 --> 00:29:53,040
Speaker 1: Really having zach Netto last year kind of an end

625
00:29:53,080 --> 00:29:56,080
Speaker 1: of the draft guy. Two point fifty four was around

626
00:29:56,120 --> 00:29:59,120
Speaker 1: that Yahoo ADP. Definitely, even outside of the three hundred

627
00:29:59,120 --> 00:30:02,760
Speaker 1: and SERTs and some certain spots this year, in the

628
00:30:02,800 --> 00:30:06,760
Speaker 1: early NFBC drafts, he's a top seventy five player. Why

629
00:30:07,480 --> 00:30:09,480
Speaker 1: because yes, he hit two forty nine last year, but

630
00:30:09,640 --> 00:30:12,760
Speaker 1: twenty three homers and thirty stolen bases. One of that

631
00:30:12,800 --> 00:30:15,880
Speaker 1: what was it ten players with twenty homers and thirty

632
00:30:15,880 --> 00:30:19,680
Speaker 1: stolen bases, zach Netto was one of those guys. Now,

633
00:30:20,080 --> 00:30:23,000
Speaker 1: there are some unfavorable things that are going with zach

634
00:30:23,080 --> 00:30:25,520
Speaker 1: Netto as this angel. Yes, he barreled the ball up

635
00:30:25,560 --> 00:30:28,479
Speaker 1: pretty well. He had a career high MaxV of one

636
00:30:28,560 --> 00:30:30,720
Speaker 1: hundred and eleven. He's still getting the ball in the air,

637
00:30:30,760 --> 00:30:34,520
Speaker 1: He's maximizing a lot of stuff. But his hard hit

638
00:30:34,520 --> 00:30:37,720
Speaker 1: percentage went down, his strikeouts still kind of there, and

639
00:30:37,920 --> 00:30:41,440
Speaker 1: really low percentiles across the board. His expected batting average

640
00:30:41,440 --> 00:30:43,920
Speaker 1: was lower than his average is an XBA of two

641
00:30:43,800 --> 00:30:47,240
Speaker 1: point thirty seven. Everything was just low. So I don't

642
00:30:47,240 --> 00:30:50,360
Speaker 1: think projections are going to be in love with zach Netto.

643
00:30:50,480 --> 00:30:53,800
Speaker 1: But here's the deal. Zach Nedo is a twenty twenty

644
00:30:53,920 --> 00:30:58,720
Speaker 1: shortstop that, yes, batting average projections aren't out there, but

645
00:30:58,800 --> 00:31:00,720
Speaker 1: I have a feeling this is a that could move

646
00:31:00,840 --> 00:31:03,360
Speaker 1: down in EIGHTYP a little bit, but right now he's

647
00:31:03,400 --> 00:31:05,480
Speaker 1: a top seventy five player. What are your thoughts on

648
00:31:05,600 --> 00:31:06,120
Speaker 1: zach Netto.

649
00:31:07,000 --> 00:31:09,320
Speaker 2: I think that it's probably gonna be a little bit

650
00:31:09,400 --> 00:31:13,440
Speaker 2: too expensive for me. Shortstop is very deep like by ADP. Yes,

651
00:31:13,520 --> 00:31:16,280
Speaker 2: he's seventy seventy two to seventy three. He's the eleventh

652
00:31:16,320 --> 00:31:18,880
Speaker 2: shortstop off the board. So I feel like in a

653
00:31:18,880 --> 00:31:21,920
Speaker 2: lot of cases, I'm already gonna have secured a Bobby

654
00:31:21,960 --> 00:31:26,240
Speaker 2: with a Gunner, a Mookie, a Seeger or whoever. If

655
00:31:26,240 --> 00:31:29,240
Speaker 2: I am landing on Netto, it's more of a soft

656
00:31:29,320 --> 00:31:32,120
Speaker 2: punt at the position, and honestly, considering the price, I

657
00:31:32,200 --> 00:31:34,200
Speaker 2: just don't really think I am gonna land on him.

658
00:31:34,200 --> 00:31:36,240
Speaker 2: Because even when you get past zach Netto, there are

659
00:31:36,280 --> 00:31:39,360
Speaker 2: still some interesting names. Boba Schett is going seventy picks

660
00:31:39,440 --> 00:31:42,240
Speaker 2: later than Zach Netto off of a down season. Xander

661
00:31:42,280 --> 00:31:45,800
Speaker 2: Bogarts is going almost one hundred picks later. Sadan Rafaela

662
00:31:45,880 --> 00:31:48,120
Speaker 2: who I know, the real life metrics were amazing, but

663
00:31:48,160 --> 00:31:50,480
Speaker 2: from a fantasy point of view was fantastic. So Shortstop

664
00:31:50,520 --> 00:31:52,640
Speaker 2: is just so so deep. I don't know that I

665
00:31:52,640 --> 00:31:56,240
Speaker 2: really want to be paying the premium for an Angel Shortstop,

666
00:31:56,240 --> 00:31:58,240
Speaker 2: even though he did have a great year. He's young,

667
00:31:58,320 --> 00:32:00,880
Speaker 2: there's room that you can project for growth both Steamer

668
00:32:00,920 --> 00:32:03,920
Speaker 2: projects twenty five and twenty five again, but I just

669
00:32:04,000 --> 00:32:05,680
Speaker 2: don't know that I want to be paying, especially in

670
00:32:05,680 --> 00:32:08,720
Speaker 2: a fifteen team league. That's a fifth round price for

671
00:32:08,800 --> 00:32:11,360
Speaker 2: somebody that I feel like I can probably replicate, maybe

672
00:32:11,400 --> 00:32:13,360
Speaker 2: not the exact production, but if you're talking about like

673
00:32:13,360 --> 00:32:15,560
Speaker 2: an auction value, I can get that same dollar value

674
00:32:15,640 --> 00:32:17,800
Speaker 2: later in the draft, I think. So I think he's

675
00:32:18,000 --> 00:32:19,160
Speaker 2: generally going to be a pass for me.

676
00:32:20,960 --> 00:32:22,840
Speaker 1: So I'm glad you said. One of the things I

677
00:32:22,880 --> 00:32:26,600
Speaker 1: wanted to mention was even though there is, you know,

678
00:32:26,640 --> 00:32:30,000
Speaker 1: some data that doesn't look great, the projections are positive.

679
00:32:30,160 --> 00:32:34,080
Speaker 1: It has a cut in strikeout percentage, more homers, I think,

680
00:32:34,120 --> 00:32:36,320
Speaker 1: a little less stolen bases. He stole thirty they have

681
00:32:36,440 --> 00:32:40,640
Speaker 1: projected at twenty six, but a higher batting average than

682
00:32:40,680 --> 00:32:44,200
Speaker 1: what he had this year when his XPA is unfavorable.

683
00:32:44,640 --> 00:32:47,560
Speaker 1: Those things are really interesting when you kind of just

684
00:32:47,640 --> 00:32:50,200
Speaker 1: look across the board because there are some other positive

685
00:32:50,240 --> 00:32:53,200
Speaker 1: zone contact percentage was up. He did chase a tiny

686
00:32:53,200 --> 00:32:56,200
Speaker 1: bit more, but I think it's like an overall like

687
00:32:56,280 --> 00:32:59,400
Speaker 1: what he does from a hard hit perspective, and maybe

688
00:32:59,400 --> 00:33:01,680
Speaker 1: the hot finish is a positive. And I will say this,

689
00:33:02,080 --> 00:33:05,239
Speaker 1: he had decreases in his fifth percentage against fastballs and

690
00:33:05,280 --> 00:33:08,640
Speaker 1: breaking pitches, So those two pitch types I think are

691
00:33:08,640 --> 00:33:11,840
Speaker 1: working favorable that a two point fifty twenty five to

692
00:33:11,880 --> 00:33:15,040
Speaker 1: twenty five guy around seventy five, that actually seems okay.

693
00:33:15,360 --> 00:33:17,560
Speaker 1: There just might be a little bit more inherent risk

694
00:33:17,560 --> 00:33:19,880
Speaker 1: because unlike a lot of players that we have that

695
00:33:19,920 --> 00:33:22,720
Speaker 1: we've been talking about. He doesn't exactly pop off the

696
00:33:22,760 --> 00:33:28,320
Speaker 1: page with like absolutely absurd underlying stats. Let's go back

697
00:33:28,320 --> 00:33:31,080
Speaker 1: to a pitcher. This is one of my favorite second

698
00:33:31,080 --> 00:33:34,800
Speaker 1: half pitchers to watch, and I gotta tell you, wherever

699
00:33:35,000 --> 00:33:40,040
Speaker 1: the ADP goes, I want to be invested. Spencer Swellenbach.

700
00:33:40,320 --> 00:33:44,400
Speaker 1: Spencer Swellenbach did not register as a drafted player last

701
00:33:44,480 --> 00:33:47,040
Speaker 1: year and in Yahoo probably not in a lot of

702
00:33:47,040 --> 00:33:50,880
Speaker 1: spots because he wasn't breaking camp. There's some relief conversation.

703
00:33:51,000 --> 00:33:53,080
Speaker 1: He was kind of a surprise guy on the back

704
00:33:53,120 --> 00:33:56,280
Speaker 1: half of the year. Well, his ADP currently is just

705
00:33:56,360 --> 00:33:58,360
Speaker 1: outside the top one hundred one. Await, I'm gonna tell

706
00:33:58,360 --> 00:34:00,560
Speaker 1: you this right now. Schwellenbach is going to probably be

707
00:34:00,600 --> 00:34:02,800
Speaker 1: my Michael King for this year, where it's just a

708
00:34:02,840 --> 00:34:04,840
Speaker 1: guy that I'm pounding the table for. I gotta have

709
00:34:04,880 --> 00:34:07,880
Speaker 1: all the shares. Unlike Michael King, though King was used

710
00:34:08,600 --> 00:34:10,879
Speaker 1: more primarily in like a relief role until he got

711
00:34:10,920 --> 00:34:13,759
Speaker 1: some starting pitching. Schwellenbach was able to start twenty one

712
00:34:13,800 --> 00:34:16,440
Speaker 1: games this past season, had one hundred and twenty three innings,

713
00:34:16,640 --> 00:34:19,040
Speaker 1: had a three three five ERA, with one hundred and

714
00:34:19,080 --> 00:34:22,080
Speaker 1: twenty seven strikeouts and barely over a one whip, which

715
00:34:22,120 --> 00:34:25,759
Speaker 1: you love even more, twenty five point four percent K

716
00:34:25,840 --> 00:34:30,120
Speaker 1: percentage only a four point six percent walk percentage. Absolutely

717
00:34:30,160 --> 00:34:33,720
Speaker 1: love that plus expected era right at his actual era.

718
00:34:33,840 --> 00:34:36,800
Speaker 1: He just did give up some big, hard to hit numbers.

719
00:34:37,280 --> 00:34:39,800
Speaker 1: And he proved, though, to have a five pitch mix

720
00:34:40,080 --> 00:34:42,640
Speaker 1: that really messed with people. He had two of those

721
00:34:42,719 --> 00:34:44,920
Speaker 1: pitches over forty percent withff rate, and four of his

722
00:34:45,000 --> 00:34:48,200
Speaker 1: five pitches had at least twenty or higher percent wff

723
00:34:48,280 --> 00:34:50,680
Speaker 1: rate on it. Just a big strikeout option. Who's going

724
00:34:50,760 --> 00:34:53,719
Speaker 1: to go into a second year. I love Spincer Swellenbach.

725
00:34:54,120 --> 00:34:56,000
Speaker 1: I'm gonna have to own him in a lot of spots,

726
00:34:56,280 --> 00:34:58,880
Speaker 1: and I really don't think even though the cost difference

727
00:34:58,960 --> 00:35:02,680
Speaker 1: is nothing all the way to top one hundred, I

728
00:35:02,719 --> 00:35:04,480
Speaker 1: don't think it's going to shine me off. I don't

729
00:35:04,480 --> 00:35:06,000
Speaker 1: think the cost is too prohibitive.

730
00:35:06,360 --> 00:35:08,600
Speaker 2: No, not at all. I mean, he hadn't pitched above

731
00:35:08,680 --> 00:35:11,319
Speaker 2: high a last year, so it's no wonder that he

732
00:35:11,400 --> 00:35:13,440
Speaker 2: wasn't getting drafted in two hundred and fift. I mean

733
00:35:13,440 --> 00:35:16,080
Speaker 2: even in NFBC drafts, if it's you know, drafted hold

734
00:35:16,120 --> 00:35:18,759
Speaker 2: seven hundred and fifty players deep, it wouldn't surprise me

735
00:35:18,800 --> 00:35:21,320
Speaker 2: if he was kind of an afterthought outside of maybe

736
00:35:21,360 --> 00:35:23,279
Speaker 2: like the James Andersons and the Welshes of the world

737
00:35:23,320 --> 00:35:26,160
Speaker 2: who are really focused in on the prospects. I don't

738
00:35:26,160 --> 00:35:28,280
Speaker 2: think that were that many people who were that interested.

739
00:35:28,320 --> 00:35:30,400
Speaker 2: But I mean, I guess if the Braves need a

740
00:35:30,400 --> 00:35:33,239
Speaker 2: strategy going forward, it's just draft pitchers named Spencer because

741
00:35:33,239 --> 00:35:35,920
Speaker 2: it seems to work out pretty well for them. Schwellenbach,

742
00:35:36,920 --> 00:35:39,480
Speaker 2: it looks like he has ace written all over him.

743
00:35:39,480 --> 00:35:42,600
Speaker 2: Everything is fantastic, like you mentioned a lot of them already.

744
00:35:42,600 --> 00:35:44,839
Speaker 2: The walk rate being below five percent with a good

745
00:35:44,840 --> 00:35:48,000
Speaker 2: strikeout rate, that twenty percent strikeout minus walk is always

746
00:35:48,080 --> 00:35:50,320
Speaker 2: kind of the elite sweet spot. He's at twenty one percent,

747
00:35:50,760 --> 00:35:54,040
Speaker 2: barrel rate below five. All the estimators are good. Everything

748
00:35:54,080 --> 00:35:55,960
Speaker 2: is great, and the team is probably going to be

749
00:35:56,480 --> 00:35:59,160
Speaker 2: much better next season as you get Akoonya back. You

750
00:35:59,239 --> 00:36:02,800
Speaker 2: miss Alb's for parts of the year. Michael Harris, Austin Riley.

751
00:36:02,840 --> 00:36:05,080
Speaker 2: They were banged up, mitt Olsen had a down year,

752
00:36:05,640 --> 00:36:08,239
Speaker 2: so I think you can probably project like fourteen to

753
00:36:08,360 --> 00:36:11,279
Speaker 2: fifteen wins with a mid three z era and if

754
00:36:11,320 --> 00:36:13,440
Speaker 2: he's able to pitch what they're expecting one hundred and

755
00:36:13,480 --> 00:36:16,040
Speaker 2: seventy two innings. It wouldn't shock me if he's able to,

756
00:36:16,120 --> 00:36:18,280
Speaker 2: you know, come close to the two hundred strikeout marker.

757
00:36:18,360 --> 00:36:21,280
Speaker 2: So if you are looking for Schwellenbach and pitching in general,

758
00:36:21,520 --> 00:36:23,640
Speaker 2: hop into a draft room, because he's going a lot

759
00:36:23,680 --> 00:36:25,359
Speaker 2: later that he's going to be going in March. Same

760
00:36:25,520 --> 00:36:27,640
Speaker 2: goes for a lot of players, Shane McClanahan going at

761
00:36:27,640 --> 00:36:29,759
Speaker 2: pick like one thirty. These things are not going to

762
00:36:29,800 --> 00:36:32,319
Speaker 2: be happening come three four months from now, So hop

763
00:36:32,320 --> 00:36:34,680
Speaker 2: into a draft and get Schwellenbach. I'm fully on board

764
00:36:34,680 --> 00:36:37,200
Speaker 2: with you. Well, she is this year's big, big pitching

765
00:36:37,280 --> 00:36:38,279
Speaker 2: riser and he should.

766
00:36:38,000 --> 00:36:41,080
Speaker 1: Be, you know, and something to really consider too. I'm

767
00:36:41,080 --> 00:36:43,279
Speaker 1: just going to throw this out here, so you know.

768
00:36:43,320 --> 00:36:47,279
Speaker 1: He ended the season his last six starts, which we're

769
00:36:47,280 --> 00:36:52,600
Speaker 1: all in September. By the way, strikeouts kind of tapered two, three, six, five,

770
00:36:52,719 --> 00:36:56,640
Speaker 1: four five before that, though in the month of August

771
00:36:56,920 --> 00:36:59,799
Speaker 1: through five starts, he had no start with less than

772
00:36:59,840 --> 00:37:03,239
Speaker 1: seven strikeouts ten, seven, eight, nine, and eight, and the

773
00:37:03,360 --> 00:37:07,640
Speaker 1: previous two strikeout games were eleven and eight. Here's where

774
00:37:07,640 --> 00:37:10,279
Speaker 1: I'm getting at. This is a pitcher that had their

775
00:37:10,400 --> 00:37:13,200
Speaker 1: innings pushed to a limit that they had never done before.

776
00:37:13,840 --> 00:37:16,160
Speaker 1: Wear down. You take away that wear down and what

777
00:37:16,960 --> 00:37:19,680
Speaker 1: some elite strikeout perform I mean, that was about seven

778
00:37:19,719 --> 00:37:22,360
Speaker 1: games of elite strikeout performance before the weardown happened in

779
00:37:22,400 --> 00:37:25,080
Speaker 1: the second half. There's a real possibility we could see

780
00:37:25,080 --> 00:37:28,080
Speaker 1: a massive increase in a five pitch pitcher in Schwellenbach

781
00:37:28,080 --> 00:37:30,440
Speaker 1: put a big power fastball. I think swelling box strikeouts

782
00:37:30,480 --> 00:37:32,719
Speaker 1: could really surprise people. He's going to be one of

783
00:37:32,760 --> 00:37:38,399
Speaker 1: my favorite targets post one hundred. Let's do an outfield

784
00:37:38,719 --> 00:37:41,880
Speaker 1: rank riser debate real quick, because I think one narrative

785
00:37:41,920 --> 00:37:44,400
Speaker 1: we talk about a lot in fantasy baseball is, at

786
00:37:44,480 --> 00:37:47,640
Speaker 1: least we did last season that outfield was not deep.

787
00:37:48,040 --> 00:37:50,839
Speaker 1: It did not feel like a comfortable position. Outfield got

788
00:37:51,360 --> 00:37:53,239
Speaker 1: away from me in leagues, gets away from a lot

789
00:37:53,280 --> 00:37:56,000
Speaker 1: of people. It's going to be difficult this year because

790
00:37:56,200 --> 00:37:59,399
Speaker 1: the people that were able to push past it, they

791
00:38:00,120 --> 00:38:03,279
Speaker 1: got some amazing values in some players. Two players that

792
00:38:03,320 --> 00:38:07,800
Speaker 1: were incredible pickups or slash value last season where Brenton

793
00:38:07,880 --> 00:38:11,880
Speaker 1: Doyle and Lawrence Butler. Now Brenton Doyle was one that

794
00:38:11,880 --> 00:38:14,000
Speaker 1: people were drafting. He had an ADP that was like

795
00:38:14,080 --> 00:38:16,000
Speaker 1: outside the top two hundred. I want to say the

796
00:38:16,000 --> 00:38:20,239
Speaker 1: AHUO ADP was two twenty two. His projected ADP this

797
00:38:20,320 --> 00:38:23,000
Speaker 1: year is ninety two. Lawrence Butler was not drafted. He

798
00:38:23,040 --> 00:38:25,000
Speaker 1: was like a halfway through the year guy. He has

799
00:38:25,040 --> 00:38:27,239
Speaker 1: now been drafted at one oh six, So they're within

800
00:38:27,360 --> 00:38:30,280
Speaker 1: like a round of each other. Getting those two guys

801
00:38:30,640 --> 00:38:34,320
Speaker 1: could have absolutely changed the perspective of your league, especially

802
00:38:34,320 --> 00:38:36,839
Speaker 1: for the depth side. But they are going to cost

803
00:38:36,880 --> 00:38:38,279
Speaker 1: you a lot. So that's where I'm getting at. Like

804
00:38:38,320 --> 00:38:40,920
Speaker 1: all those awesome outfielders you got last year, these guys

805
00:38:40,960 --> 00:38:43,600
Speaker 1: that really pop, they are going to cost a heavier

806
00:38:43,640 --> 00:38:46,440
Speaker 1: price this season, So I'm curious at what side of

807
00:38:46,480 --> 00:38:49,640
Speaker 1: the rank rising you buy. Brenton Doyle twenty three homers,

808
00:38:49,880 --> 00:38:54,560
Speaker 1: thirty stolen bases, two sixty batting average, top six percentile

809
00:38:54,680 --> 00:38:57,719
Speaker 1: in sprint speed in the league, and some relatively good

810
00:38:57,719 --> 00:39:00,640
Speaker 1: supportive numbers as far as like expected batting average and

811
00:39:00,680 --> 00:39:05,200
Speaker 1: how he barreled. Lawrence Butler in a smaller sample size

812
00:39:05,239 --> 00:39:09,280
Speaker 1: around four hundred of bats, twenty two homers, eighteen stolen bases,

813
00:39:10,000 --> 00:39:15,240
Speaker 1: much bigger eye popping hitting data, top twelve percent expected

814
00:39:15,320 --> 00:39:19,640
Speaker 1: slug expected batting average was actually right around his batting average,

815
00:39:19,680 --> 00:39:23,160
Speaker 1: that's better than Brenton Doyle. And he lowered his strikeout

816
00:39:23,239 --> 00:39:26,000
Speaker 1: rate where Brenton Doyle had a little bit higher. So

817
00:39:26,120 --> 00:39:28,759
Speaker 1: what I'm getting at here is Doyle had a little

818
00:39:28,760 --> 00:39:32,080
Speaker 1: bit more of runway and the high stolen based total,

819
00:39:32,440 --> 00:39:35,160
Speaker 1: and he is going higher than Lawrence Butler. Lawrence Butler

820
00:39:35,280 --> 00:39:37,640
Speaker 1: is more of a pop up player that had a

821
00:39:37,880 --> 00:39:40,319
Speaker 1: crazy good barreling year that we saw from a lot

822
00:39:40,320 --> 00:39:44,520
Speaker 1: of A's players. Projections, I mean, the projected numbers, especially

823
00:39:44,520 --> 00:39:46,840
Speaker 1: if you span it out for Butler, might look a

824
00:39:46,880 --> 00:39:49,560
Speaker 1: lot bigger. What side do you want? Do you want

825
00:39:49,560 --> 00:39:51,960
Speaker 1: a round of value on Lawrence Butler or do you

826
00:39:52,000 --> 00:39:54,880
Speaker 1: want Brenton Doyle? Which of these rank rising do you buy?

827
00:39:55,080 --> 00:39:57,560
Speaker 2: I think I might take Butler straight up, even regardless

828
00:39:57,560 --> 00:39:59,160
Speaker 2: of the price. But if you're also throwing in a

829
00:39:59,239 --> 00:40:02,000
Speaker 2: round of value, take that. If you project out what

830
00:40:02,040 --> 00:40:04,279
Speaker 2: he did over a full season, because it was only

831
00:40:04,440 --> 00:40:06,680
Speaker 2: three quarters of a season, one hundred and twenty five games,

832
00:40:07,120 --> 00:40:09,840
Speaker 2: you are looking at a better year than Breton Doyle.

833
00:40:09,840 --> 00:40:13,120
Speaker 2: If you're looking at some of those all encompassing offensive

834
00:40:13,200 --> 00:40:16,680
Speaker 2: metrics WRC plus, Breton Doyle was ninety seven, Lawrence Butler

835
00:40:16,680 --> 00:40:19,719
Speaker 2: was one hundred and thirty the lower strikeout rate. There

836
00:40:19,760 --> 00:40:21,760
Speaker 2: will be people initially and they had to say Cores,

837
00:40:21,800 --> 00:40:25,080
Speaker 2: I'm taking the better ballpark environment, but we might have

838
00:40:25,120 --> 00:40:26,840
Speaker 2: a I mean, maybe it won't be better than Cores,

839
00:40:26,880 --> 00:40:28,759
Speaker 2: but it might be. I really don't know what the

840
00:40:28,760 --> 00:40:31,640
Speaker 2: park factors are in Sacramento, so you're getting a great park.

841
00:40:31,680 --> 00:40:34,200
Speaker 2: I think that the team around Butler is a lot better.

842
00:40:34,239 --> 00:40:36,759
Speaker 2: We mentioned Rooker before and a couple of others. I

843
00:40:36,800 --> 00:40:39,280
Speaker 2: think it is Butler, especially when I'm getting him another

844
00:40:39,440 --> 00:40:44,320
Speaker 2: round beyond Breton Doyle. Doyle the previous year hit two hundred,

845
00:40:44,400 --> 00:40:47,280
Speaker 2: and that's still within the range of outcomes, where with Butler,

846
00:40:48,760 --> 00:40:50,800
Speaker 2: I still think that the floor is a little bit higher.

847
00:40:50,840 --> 00:40:52,440
Speaker 2: So I think all around, I am more on the

848
00:40:52,480 --> 00:40:53,279
Speaker 2: Butler side here.

849
00:40:54,160 --> 00:40:56,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, Butler had a little swing though there was a

850
00:40:56,160 --> 00:40:58,320
Speaker 1: period of time in the season he was getting dropped

851
00:40:58,320 --> 00:41:00,440
Speaker 1: in a lot of places and then he bounced lot back.

852
00:41:00,480 --> 00:41:03,239
Speaker 1: But a really good factor. I did not bring up Colorado,

853
00:41:03,360 --> 00:41:05,480
Speaker 1: but you have the same thing. You've got the Sacramento

854
00:41:05,560 --> 00:41:07,959
Speaker 1: factor for it. I think I like the round of value.

855
00:41:08,000 --> 00:41:09,920
Speaker 1: I think I like the round of value. I really

856
00:41:09,960 --> 00:41:13,000
Speaker 1: love the barreling ability of Lawrence Butler, and I think

857
00:41:13,120 --> 00:41:15,799
Speaker 1: I buy like outside the top one hundred than more

858
00:41:15,840 --> 00:41:18,160
Speaker 1: than paying for Brenton Doyle insight. But I will say this,

859
00:41:18,200 --> 00:41:21,160
Speaker 1: Brenton Doyle gold glove outfielder. Defensively, he's never coming off

860
00:41:21,200 --> 00:41:24,800
Speaker 1: the field, so that is a positive. Two more second

861
00:41:24,840 --> 00:41:28,120
Speaker 1: base you stated, mister Joe Rico does not feel good

862
00:41:28,320 --> 00:41:30,680
Speaker 1: this season. It's not a great position, but there is

863
00:41:30,920 --> 00:41:35,080
Speaker 1: some value A not drafted player. Last year Luis Garcia,

864
00:41:35,200 --> 00:41:39,520
Speaker 1: junior with Washington Nationals not even drafted whatsoever. Adp though

865
00:41:39,560 --> 00:41:42,680
Speaker 1: this year one thirty eight. Why because he hit eighteen homers,

866
00:41:42,760 --> 00:41:45,520
Speaker 1: twenty two stolen bases with a two eighty two batting average.

867
00:41:45,600 --> 00:41:47,279
Speaker 1: If you were not checked in, that's one of the

868
00:41:47,360 --> 00:41:51,120
Speaker 1: quietest almost twenty twenty seasons of twenty twenty four. If

869
00:41:51,120 --> 00:41:53,880
Speaker 1: you checked out on the fantasy baseball season, Luis Garcia

870
00:41:53,960 --> 00:41:57,200
Speaker 1: is going to surprise you. Makes really good contact. He

871
00:41:57,280 --> 00:42:01,160
Speaker 1: was top eleven percentele and expected that average kind of

872
00:42:01,160 --> 00:42:02,640
Speaker 1: there there was a point where maybe he was going

873
00:42:02,680 --> 00:42:05,040
Speaker 1: to become Luisa rise. Well, the batting average didn't quite

874
00:42:05,040 --> 00:42:09,280
Speaker 1: go there, but he's adding counting stats, low strikeout sixteen percent,

875
00:42:09,480 --> 00:42:13,000
Speaker 1: doesn't walk a bunch, but stole bunch of bases, hit

876
00:42:13,080 --> 00:42:16,719
Speaker 1: for some power. Do you buy Luis Garcia in a

877
00:42:16,719 --> 00:42:19,520
Speaker 1: position that you think is pretty weak this year?

878
00:42:20,160 --> 00:42:24,400
Speaker 2: I buy him to some extent. Now, I think with

879
00:42:24,480 --> 00:42:27,120
Speaker 2: second base, I still want to get one of the

880
00:42:27,160 --> 00:42:30,759
Speaker 2: elite names before you get to this point. I just

881
00:42:30,920 --> 00:42:32,640
Speaker 2: am in a draft right now. I took hose L

882
00:42:32,640 --> 00:42:34,719
Speaker 2: Tuove in like the fifth or sixth round, and I

883
00:42:34,760 --> 00:42:36,840
Speaker 2: don't have to really worry about second base. But outside

884
00:42:36,840 --> 00:42:40,880
Speaker 2: of those top five names Marte, albiz Altuove, semin and Westburg,

885
00:42:41,480 --> 00:42:44,279
Speaker 2: there is quite the falloff. And if you're securing a

886
00:42:44,280 --> 00:42:47,440
Speaker 2: guy in Garcia who's the floor is probably a fifteen

887
00:42:47,480 --> 00:42:50,040
Speaker 2: to fifteen player. Although I will say twenty twenty three

888
00:42:50,080 --> 00:42:51,600
Speaker 2: was looking pretty good for him. The reason he wasn't

889
00:42:51,680 --> 00:42:53,839
Speaker 2: drafted in twenty four was because he got sent down

890
00:42:53,880 --> 00:42:56,319
Speaker 2: mid season. The Nationals have done this a couple times

891
00:42:56,320 --> 00:42:58,400
Speaker 2: now in consecutive years. I don't know if it's disciplinary

892
00:42:58,480 --> 00:43:01,239
Speaker 2: with him. It was for cj. Abram, but they'll send

893
00:43:01,239 --> 00:43:03,080
Speaker 2: a guy down if there are problems. Even though he

894
00:43:03,120 --> 00:43:05,800
Speaker 2: was hitting two seventy, he had ten homers, ten stolen bases.

895
00:43:05,880 --> 00:43:08,320
Speaker 2: It was a bit odd. So there is that floor

896
00:43:08,360 --> 00:43:10,120
Speaker 2: you have to kind of remember in Washington. I don't

897
00:43:10,160 --> 00:43:12,440
Speaker 2: think we're gonna get there again. I think we're beyond that,

898
00:43:12,480 --> 00:43:14,160
Speaker 2: but just something to keep in the back of your mind.

899
00:43:14,560 --> 00:43:17,439
Speaker 2: I think that he's fine. But if I am gonna

900
00:43:17,480 --> 00:43:19,160
Speaker 2: take second bait, if I am gonna take you need

901
00:43:19,200 --> 00:43:20,759
Speaker 2: to take a second basement. I'm either going to go

902
00:43:20,880 --> 00:43:25,080
Speaker 2: for the top tier guys, the Marte Albizel two Bays

903
00:43:25,120 --> 00:43:27,200
Speaker 2: of the world, or I'm probably gonna wait and go

904
00:43:27,320 --> 00:43:30,120
Speaker 2: for like a Jackson holiday at Colt Keith to Brandon Lau.

905
00:43:30,520 --> 00:43:32,239
Speaker 2: This isn't really the area where I want to be

906
00:43:32,239 --> 00:43:34,239
Speaker 2: shopping for second basement. But I think that he is

907
00:43:34,239 --> 00:43:35,920
Speaker 2: a fine enough pick if you miss out on one

908
00:43:35,920 --> 00:43:37,200
Speaker 2: of those earlier targets.

909
00:43:37,719 --> 00:43:39,319
Speaker 1: Yeah, and one of the things I would throw out too.

910
00:43:39,440 --> 00:43:42,960
Speaker 1: He hit a ton of fifth last year. He actually,

911
00:43:43,160 --> 00:43:45,839
Speaker 1: between hitting first and second, he only had hit under

912
00:43:45,880 --> 00:43:49,000
Speaker 1: thirty eight bats in the one or two hole, where

913
00:43:49,080 --> 00:43:51,800
Speaker 1: a lot of it was hitting four and hitting five.

914
00:43:52,320 --> 00:43:54,520
Speaker 1: You throw in this year with James Wood, you throw

915
00:43:54,560 --> 00:43:58,200
Speaker 1: Dylan crusing this improved offense, there's a possibility that you

916
00:43:58,239 --> 00:44:01,000
Speaker 1: could see Luis Garcia hitting higher in the lineup and

917
00:44:01,239 --> 00:44:03,759
Speaker 1: he had more RBI than runs. That could be a

918
00:44:03,800 --> 00:44:05,799
Speaker 1: flip this year just because of his over I mean,

919
00:44:05,800 --> 00:44:07,600
Speaker 1: he doesn't walk a bunch, but he doesn't strike out,

920
00:44:07,640 --> 00:44:11,040
Speaker 1: makes a lot of contact. I will personally tell you

921
00:44:11,120 --> 00:44:14,120
Speaker 1: I don't love the ADP. I don't love the rise

922
00:44:14,200 --> 00:44:16,680
Speaker 1: that's going on right now. I think this could be

923
00:44:16,719 --> 00:44:21,040
Speaker 1: something that's more representative of NFBC because of chasing, stolen bases,

924
00:44:21,520 --> 00:44:24,560
Speaker 1: positional stuff that I think when you get into the

925
00:44:24,600 --> 00:44:26,360
Speaker 1: new year, I would not be surprised if he is

926
00:44:26,360 --> 00:44:28,719
Speaker 1: closer to one sixty one seventy. I think that'll be

927
00:44:28,760 --> 00:44:32,799
Speaker 1: more palatable. So in a world where I'm for a

928
00:44:32,800 --> 00:44:34,839
Speaker 1: lot of these rank changes, and really this isn't like

929
00:44:35,280 --> 00:44:38,000
Speaker 1: we're not here to necessarily tell you, like buy or

930
00:44:38,040 --> 00:44:40,200
Speaker 1: sell all of these, where you're just informing you and

931
00:44:40,239 --> 00:44:42,960
Speaker 1: talking about the players that have the biggest rises. This

932
00:44:43,000 --> 00:44:44,600
Speaker 1: is one I feel like maybe a little bit less

933
00:44:44,600 --> 00:44:47,600
Speaker 1: comfortable about because of the counting stats, but also from

934
00:44:47,600 --> 00:44:50,680
Speaker 1: a profile perspective, Hey man, you can't deny it's kind

935
00:44:50,680 --> 00:44:53,560
Speaker 1: of Jackson merrill ish if we're being honest, Like it's

936
00:44:53,600 --> 00:44:56,920
Speaker 1: low strikeouts, it's high batting average, there's power, there's speed

937
00:44:57,200 --> 00:45:00,359
Speaker 1: and maybe there is more upside the last one here,

938
00:45:00,560 --> 00:45:02,319
Speaker 1: this is going to be a goofy one. We're going

939
00:45:02,400 --> 00:45:05,080
Speaker 1: to talk about a closer and a closer, especially if

940
00:45:05,120 --> 00:45:06,880
Speaker 1: you checked out in the last month of the season

941
00:45:07,280 --> 00:45:09,839
Speaker 1: and the playoffs, maybe you didn't fully pay attention to

942
00:45:10,400 --> 00:45:15,720
Speaker 1: Luke Weaver. Luke Weaver became the Yankees closer and became

943
00:45:16,520 --> 00:45:19,719
Speaker 1: really the most prominent relief pitcher in that final month

944
00:45:19,800 --> 00:45:22,440
Speaker 1: and then going into the playoffs, he ended up picking

945
00:45:22,480 --> 00:45:26,840
Speaker 1: up four saves from September sixth on, so he was

946
00:45:26,960 --> 00:45:29,960
Speaker 1: again one of those primary closers. He ends up with

947
00:45:30,400 --> 00:45:33,680
Speaker 1: a two eight nine ERA, struck out over one hundred

948
00:45:34,040 --> 00:45:38,000
Speaker 1: batters this past season in around sixty innings pitched, and

949
00:45:38,080 --> 00:45:41,320
Speaker 1: he completely revived his career with the New York Yankees.

950
00:45:41,360 --> 00:45:43,799
Speaker 1: And I think, as many people have said, like he

951
00:45:44,080 --> 00:45:48,120
Speaker 1: is the closer of the future, and just what became

952
00:45:48,280 --> 00:45:51,080
Speaker 1: like this great change up. His change up went from

953
00:45:51,080 --> 00:45:53,719
Speaker 1: thirty two to forty eight percent WITHFF rate this year

954
00:45:53,760 --> 00:45:56,440
Speaker 1: over year. The fastball set all of that stuff up,

955
00:45:56,800 --> 00:45:58,960
Speaker 1: and the cutter he threw the cutter a ton more

956
00:45:59,000 --> 00:46:02,400
Speaker 1: this year, which became just an absolute dominant set up pitch.

957
00:46:02,760 --> 00:46:04,080
Speaker 1: All of this to say I didn't give you the

958
00:46:04,120 --> 00:46:08,240
Speaker 1: ADP one sixty nine. That is an appropriate ish range

959
00:46:08,280 --> 00:46:12,239
Speaker 1: for what is probably closer ten to fifteen. They go

960
00:46:12,360 --> 00:46:16,520
Speaker 1: higher an NFBC. Do you buy this rank rise of

961
00:46:16,600 --> 00:46:19,200
Speaker 1: Luke Weaver because we are assuming he will be the closer,

962
00:46:19,239 --> 00:46:20,880
Speaker 1: but it's hard to deny that he is not one

963
00:46:20,920 --> 00:46:24,319
Speaker 1: of the biggest relief pitchers that have risen in rank.

964
00:46:24,520 --> 00:46:26,799
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's funny because last year was the year of

965
00:46:26,840 --> 00:46:29,520
Speaker 2: the reliever converted to starter having a lot of success,

966
00:46:29,560 --> 00:46:33,359
Speaker 2: whether it was Crochet, Rinaldo Lopez, a couple others, and

967
00:46:33,400 --> 00:46:35,720
Speaker 2: we got Luke Weaver converting from a starter to reliever

968
00:46:35,840 --> 00:46:37,640
Speaker 2: and having a lot of success. He had been a

969
00:46:37,680 --> 00:46:40,840
Speaker 2: horrible starting pitcher in his career, and then he jacks

970
00:46:40,920 --> 00:46:43,360
Speaker 2: up the strikeout rate. The command seems to get a

971
00:46:43,400 --> 00:46:46,080
Speaker 2: little bit better, or at least stay on par thirty

972
00:46:46,120 --> 00:46:49,200
Speaker 2: one percent strikeout rate, where the year prior was nineteen percent.

973
00:46:49,520 --> 00:46:52,160
Speaker 2: Clay Holmes is a free agent. I can't really see

974
00:46:52,239 --> 00:46:55,160
Speaker 2: him coming back to New York. Maybe he does, but

975
00:46:55,239 --> 00:46:56,799
Speaker 2: I think that they're a little bit tired of him

976
00:46:56,840 --> 00:46:59,040
Speaker 2: at this point. I think it's Luke Weaver time. And

977
00:46:59,120 --> 00:47:01,000
Speaker 2: if you're looking at all the numbers we tend to

978
00:47:01,000 --> 00:47:03,880
Speaker 2: look at, they're all pretty good now a little bit

979
00:47:03,960 --> 00:47:06,680
Speaker 2: lucky in terms of the Babbib. He stranded eighty percent

980
00:47:06,719 --> 00:47:08,719
Speaker 2: of base runners. Maybe that comes back a little bit,

981
00:47:08,760 --> 00:47:10,840
Speaker 2: and the projections have him for about a three seven era,

982
00:47:11,719 --> 00:47:14,279
Speaker 2: but they're also projecting twenty nine saves, which saves are

983
00:47:14,400 --> 00:47:16,960
Speaker 2: very hard to project. But at pick one seventy, you're

984
00:47:16,960 --> 00:47:19,000
Speaker 2: getting the thirty saves. You know. One of the things

985
00:47:19,040 --> 00:47:21,600
Speaker 2: we did in Arizona was a panel where I was taught,

986
00:47:21,640 --> 00:47:22,719
Speaker 2: not the two of us, but I was on a

987
00:47:22,719 --> 00:47:24,480
Speaker 2: panel when we were talking about saves year in and

988
00:47:24,520 --> 00:47:27,160
Speaker 2: year out. The thirty saved guys are going the way

989
00:47:27,200 --> 00:47:29,279
Speaker 2: the Dodo bird, but the guys in the twenties are

990
00:47:29,360 --> 00:47:32,000
Speaker 2: generally still you know, you're still seeing ten or fifteen

991
00:47:32,000 --> 00:47:33,719
Speaker 2: of them every year, and Luke Weaver will be one

992
00:47:33,760 --> 00:47:36,200
Speaker 2: of those guys. He won't be a top tier, top

993
00:47:36,239 --> 00:47:39,319
Speaker 2: three or four closer, but somewhere in that ten to

994
00:47:39,360 --> 00:47:41,960
Speaker 2: fifteen range. Like you said, you're going to replicate that

995
00:47:42,120 --> 00:47:44,359
Speaker 2: value of a lot of those guys you're paying third

996
00:47:44,400 --> 00:47:46,520
Speaker 2: or fourth round picks for. So I really like waiting

997
00:47:46,520 --> 00:47:48,759
Speaker 2: on Luke Weaver. If you can get him. Maybe don't

998
00:47:48,760 --> 00:47:50,600
Speaker 2: wait all the way till ADP Maybe jump him a

999
00:47:50,640 --> 00:47:52,960
Speaker 2: few picks if you can, just to make sure you

1000
00:47:53,000 --> 00:47:54,960
Speaker 2: secure him if you need saves. But I think that

1001
00:47:55,239 --> 00:47:57,000
Speaker 2: wheels are up and he is ready to go as

1002
00:47:57,000 --> 00:47:59,560
Speaker 2: the Yankees closer next season now.

1003
00:47:59,440 --> 00:48:02,080
Speaker 1: Even though it's like one's around one sixty on the

1004
00:48:02,080 --> 00:48:04,520
Speaker 1: ADP rise, it's going to be a reliever that is

1005
00:48:04,600 --> 00:48:07,040
Speaker 1: going to just jump out at a lot of people

1006
00:48:07,080 --> 00:48:09,000
Speaker 1: of oh, this is a closer that I can get.

1007
00:48:09,000 --> 00:48:10,520
Speaker 1: I think he's gonna be a massive target for a

1008
00:48:10,560 --> 00:48:13,880
Speaker 1: lot of people with big strikeout upside. Rank risers for

1009
00:48:14,000 --> 00:48:17,080
Speaker 1: twenty four into twenty twenty five Jared Durand Jackson, Turio,

1010
00:48:17,200 --> 00:48:21,480
Speaker 1: Jackson Merrill, Michael King, Brent Rooker, Zach Nedos, Spencer Swellenbach,

1011
00:48:21,960 --> 00:48:25,680
Speaker 1: Brenton Doyle or Lawrence Butler, Luis Garcia, and Luke Weaver.

1012
00:48:25,800 --> 00:48:28,880
Speaker 1: Those are the players that we identified that have massive

1013
00:48:29,000 --> 00:48:31,719
Speaker 1: jumps year over year, And whether you tuned out or

1014
00:48:31,719 --> 00:48:34,400
Speaker 1: you were locked in all season, the question really is

1015
00:48:34,600 --> 00:48:36,279
Speaker 1: what price am I going to be paying for some

1016
00:48:36,360 --> 00:48:39,880
Speaker 1: of my favorite big twenty twenty four performers. I think

1017
00:48:40,000 --> 00:48:42,440
Speaker 1: we gave you guys some insight in those Thank you

1018
00:48:42,440 --> 00:48:44,160
Speaker 1: guys so much for hanging out with us, and hopefully

1019
00:48:44,239 --> 00:48:46,319
Speaker 1: you guys enjoyed that conversation. We got a lot more

1020
00:48:46,400 --> 00:48:48,680
Speaker 1: here on the channel, so make sure you are subscribed

1021
00:48:48,680 --> 00:48:51,720
Speaker 1: to the YouTube YouTube dot com slash Fantasy Pros MLB,

1022
00:48:51,840 --> 00:48:53,960
Speaker 1: so if you're listening on the podcast, you know what

1023
00:48:54,080 --> 00:48:55,920
Speaker 1: to go do. If you're on the YouTube, go and

1024
00:48:56,000 --> 00:48:58,320
Speaker 1: check out the podcast as well. Our buddy Joe Rico

1025
00:48:58,480 --> 00:48:59,719
Speaker 1: has a lot of the editing there, so you're like

1026
00:49:00,280 --> 00:49:02,719
Speaker 1: supporting Joe Rico when you're checking out the podcast as well,

1027
00:49:02,760 --> 00:49:04,759
Speaker 1: so make sure you're doing that. You can follow me

1028
00:49:04,840 --> 00:49:08,360
Speaker 1: on Twitter at is it the Welsh Joe Joe Arico

1029
00:49:09,080 --> 00:49:09,600
Speaker 1: ninety nine.

1030
00:49:09,680 --> 00:49:10,520
Speaker 2: You got it, my friend.

1031
00:49:10,640 --> 00:49:12,680
Speaker 1: You guys us on the screen. I just couldn't remember

1032
00:49:12,719 --> 00:49:15,440
Speaker 1: it audibly in my head there. But make sure you

1033
00:49:15,480 --> 00:49:17,200
Speaker 1: guys are locked in. We got a bunch more coming

1034
00:49:17,239 --> 00:49:19,319
Speaker 1: for you. For Joe Rico, I'm Chris Welsh. We'll talk

1035
00:49:19,320 --> 00:49:21,960
Speaker 1: to you next time right here on Fantasy Pros MLB.

1036
00:49:22,560 --> 00:49:25,799
Speaker 3: Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Baseball podcast.

1037
00:49:26,040 --> 00:49:28,400
Speaker 3: If you love the show, the best freeway to support

1038
00:49:28,480 --> 00:49:31,400
Speaker 3: us is by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts

1039
00:49:31,440 --> 00:49:35,160
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1040
00:49:35,160 --> 00:49:38,120
Speaker 3: Fantasy Pros, and subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube

1041
00:49:38,160 --> 00:49:40,320
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