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Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast podcast podcas All.

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Speaker 2: Right, here we go.

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Speaker 3: Spreading the corn.

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Speaker 1: Ten seconds of eating. We just go show me up

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Speaker 1: to the basket.

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Speaker 4: Under the basket, it's the truth for the wind. Go

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Speaker 4: big a miracle. I chuck the water, hit that one from.

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Speaker 3: The parking lot.

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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Big Bets on Campus Podcast, brought to

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Speaker 1: you by bet MGM. I am your host, Mike Calabres.

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Speaker 1: This is our breakdown of the first four live from Dayton,

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Speaker 1: and we're bringing in Action Network College Basketball contributor Tanner

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Speaker 1: McGrath to break down the action between the sixteen seeds

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Speaker 1: and the eleven seeds trying to work their way from

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Speaker 1: the field of sixty eight down to the official field

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Speaker 1: of sixty four. Tanner, first and foremost, congrats to your

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Speaker 1: remote Catamounts. They punched their ticket fifteen seed. No playing

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Speaker 1: necessary for them. They'll take on Marquette in the first round.

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Speaker 1: Your thoughts on Vermont? Are they a live dog there

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Speaker 1: in the first rounds? Give me the quick sales pitch.

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Speaker 4: Just convinced our own stucky to log that into the app.

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Speaker 1: I think they're live.

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Speaker 4: I think that as long as they can control the pace,

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Speaker 4: they match up all right, I'll have the full breakdown

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Speaker 4: on the app tomorrow evening, so I'll let you all

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Speaker 4: read it then.

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Speaker 1: But yes, the answer is yes.

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Speaker 2: Yes.

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Speaker 1: The award winning Action Network app has all of the plays, analysis,

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Speaker 1: everything you need. You can go ahead and tail or

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Speaker 1: fade you know the experts here however you want to

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Speaker 1: break up your picks, but make sure to have that

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Speaker 1: be your first place to go before you fill out

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Speaker 1: your bracket. And a reminder to our audience that we're

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Speaker 1: going to have big Bets on campus recorded podcasts all

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Speaker 1: the way through the round of sixty four and then

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Speaker 1: live shows for the rounds of thirty two, so that

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Speaker 1: I'll get you through the entire first weekends. All right,

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Speaker 1: we're going to hop into it. We're going to start

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Speaker 1: with the sixteen seeds and I'll go to bat first

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Speaker 1: Texas A and m Corpus Christy. The Islanders lay in

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Speaker 1: three and a half against Southeast Missouri State total is

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Speaker 1: set at one fifty four and a half. And here

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Speaker 1: are my initial thoughts on this. There's a reason these

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Speaker 1: two teams are in the sixteen game play and they

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Speaker 1: are really bad defensively by NCAA tournament standards. The Islanders

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Speaker 1: are three hundred and twenty seventh in two point percentage

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Speaker 1: defense and simo just hacks the ever living crap out

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Speaker 1: of you. They send teams to the foul line for

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Speaker 1: almost twenty six foul shots per game. That's three hundred

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Speaker 1: and sixty second nationally. And why is that important? Because

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Speaker 1: Texas A and M. Corpus Christi is elite at one thing.

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Speaker 1: They are the second best foul shooting team in the

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Speaker 1: entire country north of eighty percent from the charity strait,

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Speaker 1: and I think for that reason, they're the right play

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Speaker 1: in the spot. The three and a half does not

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Speaker 1: scare me away. They went twelve and one down the stretch,

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Speaker 1: whereas Southeast Missouri State they were kind of in a

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Speaker 1: rock fight there in the OBC to be able to

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Speaker 1: get that automatic bid. So I think from a standpoint

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Speaker 1: of who's hotter entering this, it's the Islanders. Defensively, they

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Speaker 1: both struggle, so it should be a higher scoring game.

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Speaker 1: But I think you get the added benefits of Texas

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Speaker 1: A and M. Corpus Christy being aggressive getting to the

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Speaker 1: line a lot, and also I get to tap one

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Speaker 1: of my favorite players that does not get a lot

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Speaker 1: of notoriety at the mid major level, and that's Isaac Michilla.

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Speaker 1: Michillo was one of the most efficient players in the

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Speaker 1: entire country. He averaged fourteen and a half points, nine

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Speaker 1: point seven rebound, shot almost fifty five percent from the field,

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Speaker 1: thirty nine percent from three point range, and just like

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Speaker 1: everybody on this Islander team, he was nails from the

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Speaker 1: foul line eighty four percent from the charity straight. So

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Speaker 1: I'm going to go ahead with sex A and m

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Speaker 1: Corpus Christi in the sixteen verse sixteen play in. How

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Speaker 1: about yours for the.

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Speaker 4: Other First of all, I just want to say I

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Speaker 4: also love Corpus Christi in this game. I think they're

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Speaker 4: playing their best ball at the right time. Really like

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Speaker 4: how experienced the team is, and I'm just wondering where

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Speaker 4: Steve Lutz is going to coach next. Anyways, on to

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Speaker 4: my sixteen verse sixteen seed game. This is the earlier

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Speaker 4: game on Wednesday FDU and Texas Southern. I covered a

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Speaker 4: lot of NEC ball this year, so it's hard for

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Speaker 4: me not to like the Nights. Tobin Anders's first year

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Speaker 4: with FTU and it resulted in NCAA tournament appearance with

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Speaker 4: an asterisk the Knights did almost upset Merrimack in the

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Speaker 4: Northeast Conference tournament finals. Whatever they're here now. Anderson brought

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Speaker 4: in three transfers from his old Division two jobs and

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Speaker 4: a couple more from community colleges. Basically, just took a

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Speaker 4: bunch of transfer kids from the D two level imported

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Speaker 4: him in. This squad overwhelmed the Northeast Conference with athleticism,

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Speaker 4: offensive rebounding, and the full court press. No team in

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Speaker 4: the country pressed more than FDU and that poses a

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Speaker 4: monster problem for Texas Southern because the Tigers are a

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Speaker 4: very poor ball handling team, and the poor ball handling

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Speaker 4: spearheads a horrendous offensive attack, one of the worst in

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Speaker 4: the nation. Actually, that said, if Texas Southern does break

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Speaker 4: the press, the Tigers will be staring down one of

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Speaker 4: the worst defensive teams in the nation FD you can't

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Speaker 4: stop anyone in the half court. However, Texas Southern's defense

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Speaker 4: also went under the radar and SWACK play. I thought

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Speaker 4: they sat some behore shooting luck on defense. It sank

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Speaker 4: its whole efficient numbers. The shot Callity Metrics grade the

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Speaker 4: Tigers as one of the swack's best defensive team. Specifically,

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Speaker 4: they're a great defensive rebounding team, which poses a big

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Speaker 4: issue for FDU, which relies heavily on the offensive. Last

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Speaker 4: of Fuel partners at the inclined to offense. So my

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Speaker 4: overall point here is you're getting an interesting contrast in styles.

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Speaker 4: FDU has a good offense, bad defense, but they can

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Speaker 4: press Texas Southern. Texas Southern has a bad offense but

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Speaker 4: a good defense and can keep FDU off the boards.

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Speaker 4: I didn't really know what to do with that all

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Speaker 4: that information, but in the end, I'm going to back

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Speaker 4: Texas Southern for two reasons. First, you can't really trust

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Speaker 4: FDU's metrics with just how horrific the NEC was this season.

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Speaker 4: Was the SWACK any much better? No, these two conferences

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Speaker 4: finished last and second to last, and ken Pom's conference ratings,

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Speaker 4: which is the average adjusted efficiency of a team expected

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Speaker 4: to go five hundred conference play, but the difference in

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Speaker 4: between the SWACK and the NEC was four and a

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Speaker 4: half points of efficiency. The NEC was devoid of talent

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Speaker 4: this year. Second, Texas Southern has been here before. Johnny

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Speaker 4: Jones is entering his third straight first four game, looking

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Speaker 4: for his third straight first four victory. Yes, the Tigers

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Speaker 4: had to steal the swack bit away as an eight

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Speaker 4: seed in the conference tournament. But I think the experience

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Speaker 4: should prove valuable here against the first year D one

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Speaker 4: coach coaching a bunch of first year D one players. Also,

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Speaker 4: the shock Quality bets model makes Texas Southern a six

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Speaker 4: and a half point favorite, So I'm going to take

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Speaker 4: those odds they're currently laying two and a half across

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Speaker 4: the market.

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Speaker 3: Benfore we go any further. As a reminder, Big Bets

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Speaker 1: So going from the sixteen play in, where really it's

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Speaker 1: just a nice to have a stay in alone game.

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Speaker 1: It's nice to get that paycheck. But then their lamps

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Speaker 1: of the slaughter against the one seed. Now we transition

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Speaker 1: over to the eleven play in, and this is really

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Speaker 1: a launching pad. Not only can you win this game,

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Speaker 1: but you can go all the way to the Sweet sixteen.

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Speaker 1: You can write your ticket all the way to the

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Speaker 1: Final four. It's been done before from this spot. So

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Speaker 1: with that, I'll discuss Pitt versus Mississippi States, essentially a

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Speaker 1: coin flip Bulldogs laying a point in a half total

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Speaker 1: set at one hundred and thirty three and a half,

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Speaker 1: and I'll say some nice things about both teams. Pit

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Speaker 1: twenty fourth in offensive efficiency as according to Kenpom, they

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Speaker 1: don't turn it over very much, so they're not going

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Speaker 1: to shoot themselves in the foot. They make some nice

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Speaker 1: runs offensively because they make a lot of triples nine

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Speaker 1: and a half made three pointers per game. That's twenty

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Speaker 1: third nationally. I really like their guards, Jamarius Burden and

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Speaker 1: Nelly Cummings. Comings they import in from Colgate. They can

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Speaker 1: score and facilitate as a duo. They average over tennis

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Speaker 1: sis per game as a backcourt. They have some nice wins.

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Speaker 1: You know, they beat Uva, They nearly swept Miami, Florida.

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Speaker 1: Jeff Caple has been a good tournament coach, you know,

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Speaker 1: all the way back to his VCU days. He almost

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Speaker 1: had an upset at VCU as a thirteen seed. He

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Speaker 1: took OU to the Elite eight and avoided any first

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Speaker 1: round exits. So I like what he brings from a

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Speaker 1: coaching perspective. Mississippi State, it was harder for me to

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Speaker 1: talk myself into them because they went four and four

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Speaker 1: down the stretch. They needed overtime to beat Ole Miss

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Speaker 1: in Florida, they were in a dogfight with South Carolina.

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Speaker 1: That doesn't bode particularly well in my opinion, for a

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Speaker 1: game against a pit squad that's been battle tested against

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Speaker 1: really good opponents down the stretch. Also, Mississippi State, when

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Speaker 1: you're looking for those non conference apples to Apple's comparison,

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Speaker 1: Their non conferens slate was horrific. They didn't play anybody,

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Speaker 1: so really it was all about SEC play. And one

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Speaker 1: thing about the SEC is they didn't face any teams

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Speaker 1: that could hurt you from three point range. That's just

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Speaker 1: not the case with the Panthers. But as I said,

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna say some nice things about Misissippi State too,

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Speaker 1: and it really comes down to Tolou Smith. He's been

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Speaker 1: carrying them lately and Pitt struggles at one thing defensively

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Speaker 1: guarding the post two hundred and twenty third according to

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Speaker 1: shot quality. So if Smith goes off and scores twenty

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Speaker 1: five plus in this game, he can put the team

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Speaker 1: on his back. That being said, from a pure value perspective,

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Speaker 1: I don't think Pitt's ever going to be out of

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Speaker 1: this because what they can do from three point range.

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Speaker 1: I like their backcourt better. It's time of year, let's

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Speaker 1: put some credence to it being a guard dominated tournament.

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Speaker 1: I'll go ahead and take the Panthers plus one oh

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Speaker 1: five on the money line. What are your thoughts on

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Speaker 1: this matchup between the Bulldogs and Panthers. That's interesting.

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Speaker 4: I am going the other way, pretty simple, cap for me,

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Speaker 4: I was going to play Bulldogs minus one and a half.

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Speaker 4: I think the Bulldog's ball screen defense eats up Nelly

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Speaker 4: Cummings to Marius Burton. I think Tota Smith eats on

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Speaker 4: the offensive boards against a very poor pit defensive rebounding team.

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Speaker 1: So I am disagreeing, all right? How about yours in

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Speaker 1: terms of the eleven verse eleven matchup. We'll see if

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Speaker 1: I also disagree or you can find some consensus.

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Speaker 4: Arizona State playing Nevada again late night game on Wednesday

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Speaker 4: nine pm on True TV, the Desmond Cambridge Revenge Game.

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Speaker 4: A couple things about this matchup. Arizona State loves to

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Speaker 4: run the floor top twenty rate in transition frequency, second

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Speaker 4: nationally in rim points per possession per shot quality. Meanwhile,

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Speaker 4: Nevada's transition defense very suspect, fourteenth percentile in Synergy, below

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Speaker 4: average rim defense by shot qualities metrics, which is interesting

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Speaker 4: because you'd see Will Baker seven foot dude, big man

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Speaker 4: in the middle of that defense, not exactly a rim

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Speaker 4: protecting presence or really a good defender overall. I mean,

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Speaker 4: he's one of two Wolfpack players with a negative DPPR

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Speaker 4: rating Via Evan Maya Conversely, Nevada could see some success

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Speaker 4: with off ball offense, but the wolfpacker even more reliant

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Speaker 4: on post offense, and that's where Will Baker really steps in.

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Speaker 4: The guy scores over one point one points per possession

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Speaker 4: in those sets. But then you're running Will Baker into

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Speaker 4: Arizona State's very stout in tier post up defense, ended

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Speaker 4: up as the top post up defense in the Pac twelve,

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Speaker 4: ended up sixth nationally in two point defense and top

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Speaker 4: twenty in block rate because you're running seven foot Will

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Speaker 4: Baker into seven foot war in Washington. It's also hard

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Speaker 4: to get excited about this Nevada team overall. I mean,

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Speaker 4: I'm a big keenan black sheer guy, but the whole

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Speaker 4: offense is somewhat uninspiring. They're really free thrower lion often

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Speaker 4: get caught in midrage jumpers, and I don't think are

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Speaker 4: the Wolfpack even supposed to be here like Rutgers probably

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Speaker 4: should have been that last team in right. Meanwhile, Arizona

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Speaker 4: State has higher upside eaves won six and one and

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Speaker 4: Pac twelve play has wins over Creighton, Oregon, Arizona USC.

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Speaker 4: They like to shoot threes, meaning they can get hot

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Speaker 4: Nevada is happy to allow those. I'm mostly betting on

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Speaker 4: the upside for Arizona State and I'm betting on the

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Speaker 4: transition offense. I'm laying the points of Arizona State minus two.

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Speaker 1: And a half.

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Speaker 4: I also like the Desmond Cambridge Angle, and it's worth

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Speaker 4: mentioning that the shot Quality Bets model makes Arizona State

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Speaker 4: nearly a five point favorite here. So I'll lay two

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Speaker 4: and a half in Dayton with the sun Devils.

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Speaker 1: At some point, we just have to wait for the

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Speaker 1: Mountain West to prove it. I think. I think you

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Speaker 1: know the fact that they have what one tournament win

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Speaker 1: in the last four tournaments something like that. It's it's

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Speaker 1: now become an issue where when they have to play

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Speaker 1: in March and everything that you laid out, I think

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Speaker 1: it's just a bad matchup against this Arizona State team.

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Speaker 1: A lot of their strengths are negated. And I agree

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Speaker 1: it's going to require them to probably take twenty five

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Speaker 1: foul shots in this game to be able to not

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Speaker 1: only cover, but to win out right. That's a tall

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Speaker 1: task and so dependent on an officiating group. It's like,

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Speaker 1: are they going to be into those tiki tag fouls?

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Speaker 1: Are they going to allow them to play. That is

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Speaker 1: a big variable. So maybe from a live perspective, if

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Speaker 1: you're out there watching the game and you see a

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Speaker 1: very tightly called game in the early going, maybe there's

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Speaker 1: some value on Nevada. So just something to keep in

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Speaker 1: your back pocket as you're looking to play one of these,

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Speaker 1: you know, late night games. Any final thoughts on the

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Speaker 1: play in games? Do you see any of these teams

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Speaker 1: from the eleven line potentially making a run if it

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Speaker 1: all goes right?

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Speaker 4: You know, Like I said, one of the reasons that

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Speaker 4: I'm betting in Arizona State is that I am betting

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Speaker 4: into that upside. I'm betting into the team that was

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Speaker 4: six and one impact twelve player that can hit the shots,

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Speaker 4: that can get hot in transition, if one of these

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Speaker 4: four teams is going to make a run, They're going

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Speaker 4: to be the ones to do it. And Yeah, and

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Speaker 4: I think that Arizona State poses a decent matchup if

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Speaker 4: they get past it against TCU. TC is a little

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Speaker 4: bit hurt right now. If any one of these teams

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Speaker 4: is going to make that final run, I'm going to

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Speaker 4: go with the Sun Devils.

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Speaker 1: I'm certainly not namored by Iowa State as a succeed.

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Speaker 1: I do think there's potential for either of these teams.

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Speaker 1: Mississippi State with till Lou Smith, I mean can as

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Speaker 1: I mentioned, he is the offensive engine for them right now.

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Speaker 1: He can put it together long term and potentially string

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Speaker 1: together two or three wins. I do like Pitt's offense.

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Speaker 1: I know that they hit a bit of a wall

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Speaker 1: down the stretch in the ACC but we talked about ceiling,

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Speaker 1: and I talked about that win against Virginia almost a

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Speaker 1: season sweep of Miami. These are things to consider in

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Speaker 1: terms of when everything goes together, and I do like

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Speaker 1: Cable as a coach, so I would not feel comfortable

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Speaker 1: putting either of those six seeds onto the round of

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Speaker 1: thirty two or even further not that I think either

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Speaker 1: of those teams are in great positions leading into the tournament.

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Speaker 1: Given the fact that TCU and Lampkin and some of

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Speaker 1: their injuries, and also the fact that they can't shoot

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Speaker 1: from the perimeter, I think a lot of people are

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Speaker 1: cooling on them heading into the tournament. So that's it

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Speaker 1: for our first four preview. That's a breakdown of the

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Speaker 1: two sixteen Verse sixteen games, as well as the pair

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Speaker 1: of eleven V elevens and a reminder to our audience

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Speaker 1: that you can find all of the March Madness content

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Speaker 1: covering every single game in the Round of thirty two

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Speaker 1: throughout our feed Stucky the Three Man Weave, BJ Cunningham

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Speaker 1: everyone doing their part. Also just an army of writers

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Speaker 1: doing single game previews for every single rounds in the

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Speaker 1: Round of sixty four. So check out the award winning

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Speaker 1: Action Network app for Tande McGrath, I'm Mike Caliberys, thank

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Speaker 1: you so much for listening, and best of luck.

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