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Speaker 1: Mark Esper joins US. He's got a big fancy title.

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Speaker 1: Forget about it. He's a screaming Eagle of the one

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Speaker 1: hundred and first Airborne with on the ground experience. He

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Speaker 1: is a former US Secretary.

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Speaker 2: Of Defense Secretary es but fantastic to catch up with you,

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Speaker 2: sir As. Always, I wanted to lean on your experience

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Speaker 2: in the administration. We've seen some landmark accrds come out

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Speaker 2: of the Trump administration, the Abraham Cords, just establishing diplomatic

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Speaker 2: relations between israelom places we never thought we would. We

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Speaker 2: were hopeful that was going to take place with Saudi

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Speaker 2: Arabia and Israel. It hasn't. Marka. Wee learning that there

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Speaker 2: is some forces in the Middle East that just don't

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Speaker 2: want peace.

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Speaker 3: Yes, of course we do, and that is Iran principally,

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Speaker 3: and then the proxy groups around the region that they

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Speaker 3: support Jimas has Blah.

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Speaker 4: The Houdis, the Shia militia groups in Iraq. Look.

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Speaker 3: I think a big part of what motivated Jimas to

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Speaker 3: attack at this time and the way they did, was

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Speaker 3: the fact that the normalization accord between the Saudis and

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Speaker 3: Israelis was moving forward, albeit slowly, but moving forward, and

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Speaker 3: of course if it was concluded on the terms that

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Speaker 3: we knew that were leaking out, that would have meant

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Speaker 3: a tremendous shift of power back to the Palestinian authority,

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Speaker 3: which of course we know the Hamas is.

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Speaker 4: Opposed to.

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Speaker 3: Right, there's friction between Batah and Hamas, and of course

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Speaker 3: the Hamas's benefactors. Iran would also be hurt by normalization

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Speaker 3: because you'd finally see an alignment or an emerging alignment

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Speaker 3: between the Arab States and Israel against Persia, against Iran.

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Speaker 3: So I think those are principal reasons why this attack happened.

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Speaker 1: At this time, the political battle will be engaged. To

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Speaker 1: look back the twenty twenty Hindsight Secretary, what I'm fascinated

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Speaker 1: by is how we prosecute a military affair with Israeli forces. Okay, fine,

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Speaker 1: against terrorist groups. We've never really done this, have we.

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Speaker 3: Well, I mean, you could argue that our response after

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Speaker 3: nine to eleven when we went into Afghanis stand first

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Speaker 3: to displace the Taliban, and then of course the pursuit

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Speaker 3: of of of Alcaeda and eventually Isis et cetera, was

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Speaker 3: part of that. We of course, yes, we went after

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Speaker 3: isis in Syria as well, so but I get your point.

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Speaker 4: Look, it's very tough.

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Speaker 3: You have an army built for big, heavy, conventional fights,

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Speaker 3: an extraordinary soft capability, going into a heavily populated, dense area,

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Speaker 3: trying to root out militants among the public, and having

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Speaker 3: to fight in multiple dimensions right on the ground, above

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Speaker 3: the ground and below the ground. And it's going to

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Speaker 3: be quite a bloody and messy affair.

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Speaker 1: What would the screaming eagles do? I mean, you know

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Speaker 1: you've got tangible experience here. Do they do a massive

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Speaker 1: bombardment I'll a World War two say, and then go

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Speaker 1: in or do you expect them to prosecute something different?

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Speaker 3: Look, I think we've seen the bombardment so far. At

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Speaker 3: some point they're going to have to move in and

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Speaker 3: go street by street, block by block. I think part

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Speaker 3: of the reason why you see so many air strikes

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Speaker 3: is they're rubbling buildings. I will tell you know, you

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Speaker 3: refer back to my time with one hundred and first

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Speaker 3: Airborne when we were in southern Iraq at the Gulf four.

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Speaker 3: We did we want to avoid cities because city fighting

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Speaker 3: is really tough. It consumes a lot of soldiers not

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Speaker 3: just those you lose, but you have to leave people behind.

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Speaker 3: And again, when you're fighting in multiple dimensions, this is

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Speaker 3: really tough. So I think they go block by block,

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Speaker 3: being very careful to avoid civilian civilian casualties.

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Speaker 4: At some point they occupy.

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Speaker 3: But the really big question that we don't know yet

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Speaker 3: is what's the end state? What happens when they're done,

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Speaker 3: because at some point they're going to pull out, they

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Speaker 3: want to pull out and.

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Speaker 4: Do what vacuum do you create?

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Speaker 3: Do you somehow politically get the Palestinian authority to come in?

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Speaker 3: Is there some type of inter Arab peace peace keeping

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Speaker 3: group that comes in? Those are the big unanswered questions.

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Speaker 3: What does the end state look like?

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Speaker 5: Secretary, you were Defense secretary under the former President Trump.

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Speaker 5: How have his response been different to what we're seeing today.

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Speaker 4: I'm not sure that it would be different in this moment.

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Speaker 3: I would argue that it would be different with regard

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Speaker 3: to Ukraine and other countries, but with Israel Israel, given

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Speaker 3: the connections between our countries, our peoples so much to

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Speaker 3: share between our two countries, I'm not sure it would

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Speaker 3: be that much different. Although I would say that I

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Speaker 3: think Trump would probably take a harder line and a

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Speaker 3: more public line against Iran.

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Speaker 4: I've argued for that in the past.

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Speaker 3: I know Secretary of State Pompeo has and I would

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Speaker 3: like to see more from the Biden administration about connecting

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Speaker 3: the dots back to Iran because I think at the

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Speaker 3: end of the day, while Israel can go in and

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Speaker 3: decapitate Hamas and try and suppress them, unless you deal

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Speaker 3: with the country Iran again, who's funding and training and

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Speaker 3: supporting them, then I think Hamas just crops back up

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Speaker 3: over time.

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Speaker 5: How do you deal with Iran? I mean, this has

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Speaker 5: been one of the big quagmires for a lot of nations,

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Speaker 5: especially given that people want to avoid World War three.

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Speaker 4: Yeah.

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Speaker 3: Look, I'm not arguing for strikes on Iran right now,

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Speaker 3: but I do think we should see a consensus of

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Speaker 3: more emerging first between the Western democracies United States, Europe

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Speaker 3: and elsewhere, about really finally.

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Speaker 4: Tightening down economic sanctions on Iran.

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Speaker 3: You could go after their energy export and I know

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Speaker 3: what that does to the energy markets, and then you

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Speaker 3: could talk about further isolation of them. I just don't

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Speaker 3: think we've seen that concerted effort over the past five, six,

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Speaker 3: seven years, and certainly over.

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Speaker 4: The past couple.

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Speaker 3: In fact, some would argue that the administration has been

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Speaker 3: so eager to find a nuclear deal with Iran that

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Speaker 3: we've given them too much. And look, there's a good

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Speaker 3: case to be made for that, but I think we

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Speaker 3: finally we need to recognize that Iran is at the

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Speaker 3: root of all these problems.

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Speaker 2: As Secretary asker, if we can finish on drawing on

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Speaker 2: your experience, what do you suppose is happening right now?

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Speaker 2: What we're going to thing from the outside looking in

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Speaker 2: is a period of intense diplomacy, a troop build up,

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Speaker 2: seemingly on the brink of a full ground invasion. What

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Speaker 2: do you suppose is happening right now on the ground,

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Speaker 2: and what do you think you're going to see in

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Speaker 2: a coming of weeks and months.

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Speaker 3: Look, I think from the Israeli side, they're gathering intelligence,

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Speaker 3: they're prepping their forces, they're talking about their battle plans,

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Speaker 3: doing some final training and making sure they know the

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Speaker 3: game plan to go in and how they're going to

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Speaker 3: deal with it.

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Speaker 4: I think that's happening at that level.

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Speaker 3: At the same time, they're reinforcing their northern front with

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Speaker 3: regard to Hesblond's southern Leblon, and they also have to

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Speaker 3: keep a presence in the way Bank in case that

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Speaker 3: rises up. I think President Biden's done make good moves

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Speaker 3: moving the carrier strike groups into the eastern med The

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Speaker 3: Marines will soon be following in there as well. But

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Speaker 3: one thing that has been talked about is this, Look,

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Speaker 3: if if Hesbela opens up a front in the north,

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Speaker 3: we're going to get involved. We have to at this point,

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Speaker 3: given what we've said about deterring Hesbla, Iran and others,

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Speaker 3: and so Hesblah opens up a real front there, I'd

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Speaker 3: see American involvement happening with tomahawks strikes, maybe air strikes.

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Speaker 4: But we have to talk about that.

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Speaker 3: And as you know, there's the grander chessboard out there

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Speaker 3: with regards to diplomacy.

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Speaker 4: Please to see Tony blinking going around the region.

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Speaker 3: I think it's important that we try and keep that

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Speaker 3: Saudi Israeli normalization deal on hold, make sure it's not dead.

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Speaker 3: At some point we're going to resurrect that because in

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Speaker 3: my view, if jimas and Iran hates that deal, those

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Speaker 3: are two good reasons to pursue it, and I think

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Speaker 3: it would really change the dynamics of the region.

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Speaker 2: You go to about a minute left. We could explore

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Speaker 2: the following. I think it would be beneficial. Is Turkey

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Speaker 2: the missing link here? Where does Turkey stand in all

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Speaker 2: of this?

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Speaker 4: Turkey stands in every place.

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Speaker 3: I mean, they straddle multiple fences, right They're criticizing Israel

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Speaker 3: right now. They obviously have a large Muslim population, but

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Speaker 3: they're also active in southern Turkey, northern Iraq going after

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Speaker 3: our friends and partners there. I mean, they play this

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Speaker 3: game multiple angles. You know, on one hand, they're with

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Speaker 3: us in NATO, but he's supporting put in another areas.

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Speaker 3: And of course what we're not talking about is there's

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Speaker 3: a conflict emerging between Armenia and Azerbaijan not too far away.

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Speaker 3: So you see the world fracturing here in these different

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Speaker 3: spots at this time, and they it all traces its

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Speaker 3: roots back decades.

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Speaker 2: In many cases, I'm with you, some of these key

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Speaker 2: issues just totally off the radar right now. Mike, appreciate it.

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Speaker 2: Let's catch up again soon. Marques with there, the former

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Speaker 2: US Defense secretary and author of a Sacred Oath