1
00:00:00,800 --> 00:00:04,000
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, alongside

2
00:00:04,040 --> 00:00:06,920
Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller. Every business day, we bring

3
00:00:06,960 --> 00:00:11,520
Speaker 1: you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along

4
00:00:11,560 --> 00:00:15,600
Speaker 1: with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast

5
00:00:15,600 --> 00:00:18,479
Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and

6
00:00:18,480 --> 00:00:23,000
Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. Now, let's get to crypto.

7
00:00:23,160 --> 00:00:26,240
Speaker 1: I've been waiting. Marco Santor joins us. He's the chief

8
00:00:26,480 --> 00:00:32,159
Speaker 1: legal officer at Kraken and Marco. It's interesting, you know, um,

9
00:00:32,200 --> 00:00:37,360
Speaker 1: a lot of bears, Jamie Diamond among them, are you know,

10
00:00:37,479 --> 00:00:39,680
Speaker 1: continually ensuring the market. Hey, you know what, the US

11
00:00:39,760 --> 00:00:43,760
Speaker 1: Government's gonna regulate this space, and it seems like the

12
00:00:43,840 --> 00:00:47,080
Speaker 1: more it gets regulated, the higher the price climbs. Anyway,

13
00:00:47,200 --> 00:00:50,240
Speaker 1: is it really a bad thing if crypto is regulated?

14
00:00:52,120 --> 00:00:55,360
Speaker 1: That's a that's a terrific question, and really like the

15
00:00:55,440 --> 00:00:59,400
Speaker 1: perfect lens to view crypto regulation as it relates to

16
00:00:59,440 --> 00:01:03,880
Speaker 1: the price. Listen, the price of crypto. Are the price

17
00:01:03,880 --> 00:01:05,880
Speaker 1: of crypto is going to go up. It's just gonna

18
00:01:05,920 --> 00:01:07,640
Speaker 1: go up, and it's gonna go up and sometimes it's

19
00:01:07,640 --> 00:01:10,880
Speaker 1: gonna go down. But By and large, the reason why

20
00:01:10,920 --> 00:01:13,720
Speaker 1: the price of crypto keeps going up is not because

21
00:01:13,720 --> 00:01:17,679
Speaker 1: of a speculative frenzy. It's not because governments have been

22
00:01:17,760 --> 00:01:21,480
Speaker 1: laying off and once they do really crack down, it's

23
00:01:21,520 --> 00:01:23,560
Speaker 1: going to get destroyed. The bottom is going to fall out.

24
00:01:23,560 --> 00:01:26,120
Speaker 1: That is completely the wrong ones to view it. The

25
00:01:26,280 --> 00:01:27,920
Speaker 1: right lens to view it is that this is a

26
00:01:27,959 --> 00:01:34,720
Speaker 1: technological transformation, technological revolution, and unlike other technological revolution, this

27
00:01:34,760 --> 00:01:38,400
Speaker 1: one has a price picker. That's the that's the that's

28
00:01:38,440 --> 00:01:40,679
Speaker 1: the bottom line is that if you could, if you

29
00:01:40,680 --> 00:01:43,760
Speaker 1: could invest in the in the very early days of

30
00:01:43,920 --> 00:01:49,320
Speaker 1: arpa net right, the progenitor to the Internet. Gosh, I mean,

31
00:01:49,640 --> 00:01:51,800
Speaker 1: of course you would have done that. You know. The

32
00:01:51,840 --> 00:01:54,800
Speaker 1: early is that the Internet had websites, right, you can

33
00:01:54,840 --> 00:01:58,160
Speaker 1: buy and sell websites, but it was a highly inefficient market.

34
00:01:58,200 --> 00:02:03,080
Speaker 1: It happened very slowly, it was largely insecure. The difference

35
00:02:03,120 --> 00:02:06,360
Speaker 1: between what happened then and what's happening now is not

36
00:02:06,520 --> 00:02:10,880
Speaker 1: that crmino is any lesson the Internet. Actually it will be,

37
00:02:11,080 --> 00:02:14,880
Speaker 1: and it will be significantly more. I think it's going

38
00:02:14,919 --> 00:02:18,800
Speaker 1: to change every aspect of our financial lives. But the

39
00:02:18,840 --> 00:02:22,720
Speaker 1: difference is that well, this time, there there's there's there's

40
00:02:22,880 --> 00:02:26,959
Speaker 1: there's financial opportunity all tied up in it for everyday

41
00:02:26,960 --> 00:02:32,160
Speaker 1: people because these tokens, many of them work like functional goods. Um.

42
00:02:32,280 --> 00:02:36,560
Speaker 1: And that's that's a that is not only a generational opportunity.

43
00:02:36,600 --> 00:02:39,840
Speaker 1: I think it's a historical opportunity. So look, I wouldn't

44
00:02:39,840 --> 00:02:42,200
Speaker 1: say jump in and by a bunch of crypto because

45
00:02:42,240 --> 00:02:43,920
Speaker 1: you think that because you think the price is going

46
00:02:43,960 --> 00:02:46,239
Speaker 1: to go up. That's that's the wrong lens to view

47
00:02:46,240 --> 00:02:49,000
Speaker 1: it through. You have to view this through. What's really happening.

48
00:02:49,440 --> 00:02:53,480
Speaker 1: This this ground swell opportunity. Uh In in terms of

49
00:02:53,639 --> 00:02:57,840
Speaker 1: technological innovation, Marco, there's a new sheriff on Wall Street,

50
00:02:57,840 --> 00:03:01,080
Speaker 1: if you will, in SEC chair Gary Gensler. What do

51
00:03:01,240 --> 00:03:03,200
Speaker 1: you know about him? What do you know about his

52
00:03:03,360 --> 00:03:09,720
Speaker 1: views on crypto? Gary Densler understands, So I think better

53
00:03:09,760 --> 00:03:13,360
Speaker 1: than better than most people. Um. You know, we we

54
00:03:13,360 --> 00:03:16,920
Speaker 1: we keep open lines of communication with regulators even if

55
00:03:16,919 --> 00:03:20,000
Speaker 1: they are in our primary functional regulator. The SEC is

56
00:03:20,040 --> 00:03:23,720
Speaker 1: not our primary functional regulator. They are not the primary

57
00:03:23,760 --> 00:03:29,240
Speaker 1: functional regulator of any crypto exchanges in the US, UH

58
00:03:29,360 --> 00:03:32,480
Speaker 1: that I'm aware of. But look, I mean, you don't

59
00:03:32,720 --> 00:03:35,640
Speaker 1: need a microscope to to figure out that that they

60
00:03:35,680 --> 00:03:39,200
Speaker 1: probably want to be. Gensler has said on a number

61
00:03:39,200 --> 00:03:44,360
Speaker 1: of occasions that he believes that the protections required uh

62
00:03:44,520 --> 00:03:48,880
Speaker 1: for users of crypto exchanges are investor protections, not just

63
00:03:49,000 --> 00:03:53,400
Speaker 1: consumer protections. And that would mean a real shift from

64
00:03:53,920 --> 00:03:57,480
Speaker 1: the kinds of regulation that applies to crypto exchanges today,

65
00:03:57,960 --> 00:04:01,160
Speaker 1: which is primarily money transmit a regulation or the kind

66
00:04:01,160 --> 00:04:03,200
Speaker 1: of regulation that that that you get when you walk

67
00:04:03,240 --> 00:04:06,680
Speaker 1: into a MoneyGram or a Western unions that he thinks

68
00:04:06,680 --> 00:04:11,320
Speaker 1: it ought to be something different, something more investor protection regulation.

69
00:04:11,760 --> 00:04:15,480
Speaker 1: So all of the investor protector regulations that you talk

70
00:04:15,560 --> 00:04:17,680
Speaker 1: about on this show every day, the kind of regulation

71
00:04:17,720 --> 00:04:25,000
Speaker 1: that applies to broker dealers, um, national securities exchanges, investment advisors,

72
00:04:25,040 --> 00:04:28,320
Speaker 1: that that sort of thing. So UM, I think that's

73
00:04:28,360 --> 00:04:31,719
Speaker 1: that's where we're headed. Uh. It's not really a legal

74
00:04:31,760 --> 00:04:34,520
Speaker 1: discussion yet, it's or at least it shouldn't be. It's

75
00:04:34,960 --> 00:04:38,800
Speaker 1: it's a policy discussion, the question of what kinds of

76
00:04:38,839 --> 00:04:45,320
Speaker 1: regulation to apply to crypto companies, exchanges, custodians, that sort

77
00:04:45,320 --> 00:04:48,040
Speaker 1: of thing. And I don't think it's so easy as

78
00:04:48,279 --> 00:04:50,000
Speaker 1: as to look at it and say, well it looks,

79
00:04:50,040 --> 00:04:52,080
Speaker 1: it walks like a duck, it class like a duck.

80
00:04:52,120 --> 00:04:54,880
Speaker 1: It's got steads. So let's call all these things broker

81
00:04:54,920 --> 00:04:57,080
Speaker 1: dealers and call it a day. I think that would

82
00:04:57,120 --> 00:05:00,359
Speaker 1: be throwing the baby out with bath. Moderate in a

83
00:05:00,480 --> 00:05:04,760
Speaker 1: opportunity to establish a regulatory regime that really works for

84
00:05:04,800 --> 00:05:08,160
Speaker 1: crypto uses. I wonder what it's like as a lawyer

85
00:05:08,200 --> 00:05:13,479
Speaker 1: to deal with. UM. You know, an asset that doesn't

86
00:05:13,680 --> 00:05:18,480
Speaker 1: have you can't touch, it doesn't exist other than as

87
00:05:18,520 --> 00:05:22,360
Speaker 1: a line of code, and it doesn't have any um

88
00:05:22,960 --> 00:05:27,760
Speaker 1: intrinsic value or purpose other than to be you know,

89
00:05:28,720 --> 00:05:31,800
Speaker 1: worth money. Is it different than other kinds of I

90
00:05:31,960 --> 00:05:34,760
Speaker 1: P or do you just lump it all in the

91
00:05:34,800 --> 00:05:40,440
Speaker 1: same kind of baskin. It's absolutely different. It's absolutely different.

92
00:05:40,800 --> 00:05:42,960
Speaker 1: And I can tell you, as a lawyer who's practiced

93
00:05:43,000 --> 00:05:47,960
Speaker 1: in this space since late that makes me aged agent

94
00:05:48,440 --> 00:05:52,000
Speaker 1: in this industry. UM, let me let me tell you

95
00:05:52,200 --> 00:05:55,560
Speaker 1: it is. It is. It is the most fantastic opportunity

96
00:05:55,680 --> 00:06:02,080
Speaker 1: to investigate, to reinvestigate first principles of good regulation, to

97
00:06:02,160 --> 00:06:06,320
Speaker 1: reinvestigate how, how how these laws were originally crafted to

98
00:06:06,360 --> 00:06:10,359
Speaker 1: protect people. UM, and I gotta tell you it is

99
00:06:10,400 --> 00:06:14,040
Speaker 1: a It is a terrific opportunity to to question why

100
00:06:14,120 --> 00:06:17,280
Speaker 1: we have disclosure regimes, for example, just the most fundamental

101
00:06:17,360 --> 00:06:20,680
Speaker 1: questions about how we how we protect people and how

102
00:06:20,720 --> 00:06:23,960
Speaker 1: we protect investors. You know, today we have these disclosure

103
00:06:24,000 --> 00:06:28,440
Speaker 1: regimes that require companies who are issuers to tell all

104
00:06:28,480 --> 00:06:30,560
Speaker 1: the public about what the company is doing so that

105
00:06:30,640 --> 00:06:34,120
Speaker 1: people aren't caught off guard by by things that could

106
00:06:34,480 --> 00:06:39,880
Speaker 1: affect their financial future. Do we need that for crypto? Well,

107
00:06:40,600 --> 00:06:43,919
Speaker 1: we need something like it maybe, But I mean, you

108
00:06:44,040 --> 00:06:48,080
Speaker 1: can't ask a digital you can't ask a computer protocol

109
00:06:48,560 --> 00:06:52,160
Speaker 1: to publish a phase, right, Like that's never going to

110
00:06:52,279 --> 00:06:54,599
Speaker 1: happen for a bitcoint and it would be folly for

111
00:06:54,680 --> 00:06:58,520
Speaker 1: government to require it for some companies though, or for

112
00:06:58,520 --> 00:07:02,000
Speaker 1: for some protocols are actually our companies behind them and

113
00:07:02,080 --> 00:07:05,440
Speaker 1: for them, Well, I think we to start what what

114
00:07:05,560 --> 00:07:08,440
Speaker 1: a new disclosure regime looks like? What it really awful?

115
00:07:10,000 --> 00:07:13,200
Speaker 1: All right? Thanks so much for joining us. Really interesting stuff,

116
00:07:13,240 --> 00:07:20,360
Speaker 1: Marco Sentori there from Kraken. Let's get a sense here

117
00:07:20,440 --> 00:07:24,560
Speaker 1: on this market. We talk about the wall of worry,

118
00:07:24,720 --> 00:07:27,360
Speaker 1: if you will, and there are many bricks in that

119
00:07:27,440 --> 00:07:30,720
Speaker 1: wall of worry. Um, let's get a sense. And people

120
00:07:30,720 --> 00:07:33,040
Speaker 1: are asking themselves. Boys, the next ten percent move gonna

121
00:07:33,040 --> 00:07:35,680
Speaker 1: be up or down. I think the camps are. It

122
00:07:35,720 --> 00:07:40,480
Speaker 1: feels like it's fairly evenly dispersed their Jeff Camarta, Chairman,

123
00:07:40,560 --> 00:07:43,640
Speaker 1: CEO and portfolio board chair of the Camarda Wealth Advisory Group,

124
00:07:43,880 --> 00:07:46,720
Speaker 1: is also author of the Financial Storm Warning for investors,

125
00:07:46,720 --> 00:07:49,880
Speaker 1: How to Prepare and Protect your wealth from taxis and

126
00:07:49,960 --> 00:07:54,280
Speaker 1: market crashes. Jeff, are you concerned about a significant pullback

127
00:07:54,480 --> 00:07:57,920
Speaker 1: in this market? I think it's just inevitable. I mean,

128
00:07:57,960 --> 00:08:00,520
Speaker 1: the market has been soaring, really floated up into space

129
00:08:00,560 --> 00:08:03,800
Speaker 1: as the world burns since COVID. COVID presented in early

130
00:08:04,960 --> 00:08:07,200
Speaker 1: So whether this is the beginning of it or both

131
00:08:07,240 --> 00:08:09,840
Speaker 1: continuing bill trend for a bit longer, I'm not sure,

132
00:08:09,960 --> 00:08:12,440
Speaker 1: but I think sooner or later we're in for quite

133
00:08:12,480 --> 00:08:16,560
Speaker 1: a shock. So how do you especially tax hikes, I'm

134
00:08:16,600 --> 00:08:20,480
Speaker 1: I'm wondering, how do you protect your wealth from tax hikes?

135
00:08:20,520 --> 00:08:24,000
Speaker 1: There's a lot of it regional. I notice you're in Florida. Well,

136
00:08:24,080 --> 00:08:25,960
Speaker 1: I think I think you know. The biggest pie, certainly

137
00:08:26,080 --> 00:08:28,280
Speaker 1: is is federal and there are so many dark forces

138
00:08:28,320 --> 00:08:32,400
Speaker 1: that are really conspiring I think to drive really atrocious

139
00:08:32,600 --> 00:08:36,880
Speaker 1: wealth stormed conditions, But protecting yourself from tax hikes really

140
00:08:37,160 --> 00:08:40,680
Speaker 1: is the function of understanding tax law and what the

141
00:08:40,720 --> 00:08:45,280
Speaker 1: opportunities for legal tax avoidance are. All right, So, Jeff,

142
00:08:45,360 --> 00:08:49,840
Speaker 1: you're you're really worried, You're concerned about a significant pullback

143
00:08:49,880 --> 00:08:53,800
Speaker 1: in this market. What would be the catalyst for that

144
00:08:53,840 --> 00:08:56,560
Speaker 1: in your mind? It really is hard to say. You know,

145
00:08:56,679 --> 00:08:58,679
Speaker 1: right now, we're still pretty much in greed mode and

146
00:08:58,960 --> 00:09:01,600
Speaker 1: folks are buying, you know, it's applying demand and which sellers,

147
00:09:01,679 --> 00:09:05,800
Speaker 1: you know, um out number buyers, and it flips, and

148
00:09:05,840 --> 00:09:08,160
Speaker 1: it's it's really hard to tell what the tipping point

149
00:09:08,160 --> 00:09:10,440
Speaker 1: would be. Could have been an attack in Taiwan, you

150
00:09:10,440 --> 00:09:13,079
Speaker 1: know it, could it be an acknowledgement that inflation really

151
00:09:13,120 --> 00:09:15,320
Speaker 1: is insidious and a lot worse than the FED has

152
00:09:15,400 --> 00:09:18,000
Speaker 1: led us to believe. There are so many different things

153
00:09:18,040 --> 00:09:20,640
Speaker 1: that are really could triggered. But when it happens as

154
00:09:20,679 --> 00:09:23,800
Speaker 1: it did, you know ad mid the third quarter of

155
00:09:23,840 --> 00:09:27,280
Speaker 1: oh eight, you know, it's pretty rapid. By the way.

156
00:09:27,320 --> 00:09:29,960
Speaker 1: As a side note, everything lately is reminding me of

157
00:09:31,080 --> 00:09:36,760
Speaker 1: you know that book by Admiral Turvid so good and

158
00:09:37,000 --> 00:09:40,160
Speaker 1: uh a Taiwan issue is one of the things that

159
00:09:40,240 --> 00:09:44,640
Speaker 1: happens I'm more concerned. Um, well, let's say we're more

160
00:09:44,679 --> 00:09:48,400
Speaker 1: focused on a daily basis on inflation and growth. What

161
00:09:48,480 --> 00:09:52,559
Speaker 1: are your views on economic growth, you know, barring something

162
00:09:52,640 --> 00:09:56,040
Speaker 1: like you know, Grace on black swan issue like an

163
00:09:56,040 --> 00:09:58,439
Speaker 1: attack on Taiwan. What what are your views on growth

164
00:09:58,480 --> 00:10:00,520
Speaker 1: and inflation in the US economy right now? Well? I

165
00:10:00,559 --> 00:10:02,880
Speaker 1: think inflation is a really big factor, right and which

166
00:10:02,960 --> 00:10:06,200
Speaker 1: is not fully acknowledged by by a lot of players.

167
00:10:06,240 --> 00:10:08,600
Speaker 1: For instance, deal is up four times in a year,

168
00:10:08,679 --> 00:10:11,559
Speaker 1: four times. It's an important industrial input, right, And that's

169
00:10:11,640 --> 00:10:13,760
Speaker 1: before you look at logistical problems and you know, you

170
00:10:13,760 --> 00:10:16,000
Speaker 1: get the last count there was sixty five ships anchored

171
00:10:16,040 --> 00:10:18,400
Speaker 1: off the l A port. You can't move the stuff.

172
00:10:18,760 --> 00:10:21,400
Speaker 1: Shipping costs have gone through the roof. Um. But to

173
00:10:21,679 --> 00:10:24,920
Speaker 1: answer your question, you know, the economy still is while

174
00:10:25,040 --> 00:10:27,760
Speaker 1: some sectors are doing well in some countries have done okay,

175
00:10:28,120 --> 00:10:31,080
Speaker 1: it's still very much in tatters, you know, and damaged

176
00:10:31,120 --> 00:10:35,080
Speaker 1: in really unknowable ways. Um. And uh, eventually I think

177
00:10:35,120 --> 00:10:37,440
Speaker 1: that that that that financial stress is going to throughput

178
00:10:37,559 --> 00:10:40,320
Speaker 1: into market prices. Jeff, how long have you had this

179
00:10:40,480 --> 00:10:43,599
Speaker 1: view of markets here, this negative view of markets? And

180
00:10:43,960 --> 00:10:45,679
Speaker 1: what do you tell your clients. What's your advice to

181
00:10:45,679 --> 00:10:49,000
Speaker 1: your clients? I wrote the book Between Semesters, A George

182
00:10:49,120 --> 00:10:53,200
Speaker 1: George town Law last last Christmas, and it really began

183
00:10:53,440 --> 00:10:57,080
Speaker 1: to um, you know, to be unclear to me as

184
00:10:57,120 --> 00:11:00,040
Speaker 1: the COVID stock bubble floated up into space, right, the

185
00:11:00,080 --> 00:11:04,040
Speaker 1: world catches fire in early and stock levels just go,

186
00:11:04,360 --> 00:11:07,880
Speaker 1: you know, incredible record highs, and you're starting to examine.

187
00:11:07,920 --> 00:11:11,640
Speaker 1: I wrote a piece for Forbes, um uh probably about

188
00:11:11,640 --> 00:11:13,840
Speaker 1: a year ago that that got a hundred thousand hits,

189
00:11:13,840 --> 00:11:16,199
Speaker 1: which is, you know, unusual for me. And I really

190
00:11:16,240 --> 00:11:19,920
Speaker 1: focus you know on the various uh, the various factors.

191
00:11:19,960 --> 00:11:22,079
Speaker 1: So what we tell clients, and we've really gone. I've

192
00:11:22,120 --> 00:11:24,319
Speaker 1: been a died in the wolf fundamentalist old CF A

193
00:11:24,559 --> 00:11:28,360
Speaker 1: kind of um efficient markets guy well throughout my decades

194
00:11:28,360 --> 00:11:31,360
Speaker 1: of training. But what happened would COVID really moved me?

195
00:11:31,600 --> 00:11:34,760
Speaker 1: And why the the world's on fire and stock prices

196
00:11:34,800 --> 00:11:37,079
Speaker 1: go through the roof didn't make any sense and that's real.

197
00:11:37,120 --> 00:11:39,040
Speaker 1: And when we really started to examine what was going

198
00:11:39,080 --> 00:11:42,720
Speaker 1: on and look at ways to develop countermeasures to protect

199
00:11:42,800 --> 00:11:45,440
Speaker 1: our clients and to readers, you know, from what we

200
00:11:45,480 --> 00:11:48,240
Speaker 1: see as an inevitable but really devastating market bull back

201
00:11:48,280 --> 00:11:51,600
Speaker 1: and that just stops, right, bonds have got some more stresses. Well,

202
00:11:51,960 --> 00:11:54,600
Speaker 1: you know what, I think it's interesting, um if you

203
00:11:54,679 --> 00:11:58,480
Speaker 1: look in emerging markets, crypto has long had a draw

204
00:11:58,640 --> 00:12:01,679
Speaker 1: just because they're bet and sees are you know, can

205
00:12:01,720 --> 00:12:04,200
Speaker 1: be boxed up and wheelbarrowed out and and and still

206
00:12:04,200 --> 00:12:06,920
Speaker 1: be worthless. What do you think though about the bitcoin

207
00:12:07,040 --> 00:12:11,120
Speaker 1: right now? As from a from a US perspective, it's

208
00:12:11,160 --> 00:12:14,840
Speaker 1: difficult to justify the value right and also as a

209
00:12:14,840 --> 00:12:17,400
Speaker 1: as um as a medium of exchange, you know, with

210
00:12:17,440 --> 00:12:20,839
Speaker 1: a wildly volatile and fluction winning value. Um uh. And

211
00:12:21,080 --> 00:12:23,720
Speaker 1: they're also significant fraud you know, how do you can be?

212
00:12:23,880 --> 00:12:27,600
Speaker 1: By its very nature, it's really hard to identify who

213
00:12:27,600 --> 00:12:30,000
Speaker 1: owns it? So I think that that as part of

214
00:12:30,040 --> 00:12:34,280
Speaker 1: the gold sir, not as hard as gold. Yeah. If

215
00:12:34,360 --> 00:12:36,000
Speaker 1: I throw a gold bar on the floor, who owns that?

216
00:12:36,120 --> 00:12:39,000
Speaker 1: You know? That's right? Yeah, well it depends to guests

217
00:12:39,000 --> 00:12:41,760
Speaker 1: do it first? I guess right, that's a good point.

218
00:12:42,240 --> 00:12:46,000
Speaker 1: I just always, you know, I think it's interesting that

219
00:12:46,040 --> 00:12:48,079
Speaker 1: people are looking at as a as a hedge or

220
00:12:48,120 --> 00:12:50,160
Speaker 1: a store of wealth and it has you know, no

221
00:12:50,240 --> 00:12:54,480
Speaker 1: track record and and really no intrinsic value. I mean,

222
00:12:54,520 --> 00:12:59,160
Speaker 1: it's worth what someone will pay for it. All right,

223
00:12:59,240 --> 00:13:02,320
Speaker 1: interesting stuff, and of course we could go on. I'd

224
00:13:02,320 --> 00:13:04,520
Speaker 1: love to have you back on the program, So appreciate

225
00:13:04,559 --> 00:13:07,280
Speaker 1: you joining us. Jeff Jeff Camera out of their chairman

226
00:13:07,440 --> 00:13:12,000
Speaker 1: and CEO Camerata Wealth Advisory Groups talking to us about

227
00:13:12,280 --> 00:13:15,840
Speaker 1: how to well. He wrote the book about the Financial Storm,

228
00:13:15,960 --> 00:13:18,840
Speaker 1: warning for investors how to prepare and protect your wealth

229
00:13:18,920 --> 00:13:24,600
Speaker 1: from tax hikes and market crashes. Now, let's bring in

230
00:13:24,600 --> 00:13:29,160
Speaker 1: Shawn Snyder, head of investment strategy at City US Consumer

231
00:13:29,200 --> 00:13:32,920
Speaker 1: Wealth Management. Sean great having on the program. What are

232
00:13:33,000 --> 00:13:36,520
Speaker 1: your biggest concerns looking at this market? Is it? Is

233
00:13:36,520 --> 00:13:40,920
Speaker 1: it washing in d C um and and tax policy?

234
00:13:41,040 --> 00:13:45,199
Speaker 1: Is it inflation? Is it the Fed? Is it earning season? What? What?

235
00:13:45,200 --> 00:13:48,640
Speaker 1: What's keeping you up at night? If anything? First off,

236
00:13:48,679 --> 00:13:51,160
Speaker 1: thank you for having me. I guess all of those

237
00:13:52,000 --> 00:13:54,760
Speaker 1: are are a good spot to start. Um. You know,

238
00:13:54,800 --> 00:13:57,920
Speaker 1: the DC drama continues to kind of be an overhang

239
00:13:57,960 --> 00:14:00,760
Speaker 1: on the market. Um. You know, I like to think

240
00:14:00,840 --> 00:14:03,240
Speaker 1: that you know, this kicking the can down the oone

241
00:14:03,240 --> 00:14:05,920
Speaker 1: actually gives them more time to um, you know, kind

242
00:14:05,920 --> 00:14:08,920
Speaker 1: of solidify the party and finalize the details, but it's

243
00:14:08,960 --> 00:14:12,480
Speaker 1: not clear whether you know, no immediate crisis means no

244
00:14:12,559 --> 00:14:15,440
Speaker 1: immediate action. Uh, and are we looking at it an

245
00:14:15,440 --> 00:14:19,480
Speaker 1: awkward Thanksgiving dinner yet again with Congress simply um forcing

246
00:14:19,520 --> 00:14:23,480
Speaker 1: the deadline issue to December three instead of um, you know,

247
00:14:23,520 --> 00:14:26,720
Speaker 1: October eighteen. So I think that's an overhanging uncertainty that

248
00:14:26,760 --> 00:14:30,520
Speaker 1: weighs on the market. You know, history heavily suggests that

249
00:14:30,560 --> 00:14:32,880
Speaker 1: they do get it done. I mean, the White House

250
00:14:32,880 --> 00:14:36,080
Speaker 1: and Congress have acted uh ninety eight times since the

251
00:14:36,200 --> 00:14:38,240
Speaker 1: end of World War Two to modify the debt limit.

252
00:14:38,240 --> 00:14:40,680
Speaker 1: They've always done it seems like they will get it

253
00:14:40,720 --> 00:14:43,840
Speaker 1: done again. Um, you know. Likewise, as far as the

254
00:14:43,880 --> 00:14:48,080
Speaker 1: budget reconciliation bills and infrastructure, uh, twenty one out of

255
00:14:48,120 --> 00:14:51,400
Speaker 1: twenty five reconciliation bills have went on to be signed

256
00:14:51,400 --> 00:14:54,560
Speaker 1: by the President. So still a very heavy lift to

257
00:14:54,560 --> 00:14:57,960
Speaker 1: get the Biden agenda off the ground, But you know,

258
00:14:58,360 --> 00:15:00,120
Speaker 1: I think they should be able to do it. The

259
00:15:00,160 --> 00:15:02,880
Speaker 1: other thing with d C that's interesting is by delaying it,

260
00:15:02,960 --> 00:15:06,400
Speaker 1: they actually give the Treasury Department more time to kind

261
00:15:06,440 --> 00:15:10,640
Speaker 1: of bolster their extraordinary measures. So um, it's possible that

262
00:15:10,680 --> 00:15:13,640
Speaker 1: the soft deadline for the debt ceiling is now December three,

263
00:15:13,640 --> 00:15:16,680
Speaker 1: but if they can bolster those extraordinary measures, then maybe

264
00:15:17,280 --> 00:15:22,280
Speaker 1: the actual hard that ceiling deadline is maybe well into

265
00:15:22,560 --> 00:15:24,120
Speaker 1: So I think that's something to keep an eye on

266
00:15:24,280 --> 00:15:27,440
Speaker 1: and the other things you mentioned. Probably the biggest thing

267
00:15:27,480 --> 00:15:29,640
Speaker 1: I'm hearing about on the street is this notion of

268
00:15:29,720 --> 00:15:34,560
Speaker 1: stag inflation, where we get persistent inflation and weaker than

269
00:15:34,600 --> 00:15:38,640
Speaker 1: expected economic growth, and there are some signs that supply

270
00:15:38,880 --> 00:15:42,040
Speaker 1: chain issues are are causing problems. Um. If you look

271
00:15:42,040 --> 00:15:45,280
Speaker 1: at the Atlanta Fed GDP now tracker, it's at just

272
00:15:45,360 --> 00:15:49,000
Speaker 1: one point three for the third quarter, and I think

273
00:15:49,040 --> 00:15:51,960
Speaker 1: that would surprise most investors if that's what actually happens.

274
00:15:52,560 --> 00:15:55,080
Speaker 1: And we get that report October, which is of course

275
00:15:55,160 --> 00:15:58,480
Speaker 1: just before the FED meeting on November three, where it's

276
00:15:58,520 --> 00:16:00,960
Speaker 1: why they expected that will begin to take bond purchases.

277
00:16:01,680 --> 00:16:07,160
Speaker 1: I think importantly most of this slowing is probably related

278
00:16:07,160 --> 00:16:10,240
Speaker 1: to supply chain issues. UM. If you look at leisure

279
00:16:10,240 --> 00:16:14,000
Speaker 1: and hospitality wages are up ten percent, that still suggests

280
00:16:14,000 --> 00:16:17,800
Speaker 1: as demand for workers. Just four percent of small businesses

281
00:16:17,840 --> 00:16:21,880
Speaker 1: are reporting that poor sales are the most important problem. Uh,

282
00:16:21,920 --> 00:16:24,960
Speaker 1: And we have ten two point eight million more job

283
00:16:25,000 --> 00:16:27,760
Speaker 1: openings that unemployed. So it seems to suggest that we're

284
00:16:27,800 --> 00:16:30,400
Speaker 1: seeing a slowing due to the supply chain issues, but

285
00:16:30,480 --> 00:16:33,800
Speaker 1: the demand is still there and the economy should snap back.

286
00:16:33,840 --> 00:16:37,360
Speaker 1: One seases. So we're about to kick off third quarter

287
00:16:37,440 --> 00:16:41,040
Speaker 1: earning season, Sean, what are you looking for over the

288
00:16:41,080 --> 00:16:43,880
Speaker 1: next several weeks here as we hear from some of

289
00:16:43,880 --> 00:16:47,760
Speaker 1: the larger companies. Sure, I think we'll see a pretty

290
00:16:47,800 --> 00:16:52,200
Speaker 1: good earning season SMP five hundred. Earnings per share expected

291
00:16:52,200 --> 00:16:55,680
Speaker 1: advise about twenty eight percent year and year. A couple

292
00:16:55,720 --> 00:16:58,440
Speaker 1: of things that people will be watching is they'll see

293
00:16:59,040 --> 00:17:03,000
Speaker 1: probably see norm realization in the earnings of so called

294
00:17:03,080 --> 00:17:06,000
Speaker 1: value companies. We saw a massive surge in the second

295
00:17:06,080 --> 00:17:09,960
Speaker 1: quarter for financials and energy and some of those value

296
00:17:09,960 --> 00:17:13,320
Speaker 1: company earnings rose eighty seven percent in the second quarter.

297
00:17:13,960 --> 00:17:16,359
Speaker 1: That's unlikely to repeat. It's likely to come down maybe

298
00:17:16,359 --> 00:17:19,800
Speaker 1: twenty something. I'm along those lines. We'll be watching that.

299
00:17:20,280 --> 00:17:22,520
Speaker 1: Uh and then people are gonna be watching very closely

300
00:17:23,160 --> 00:17:27,200
Speaker 1: any comments about margin pressures, and you're gonna want to

301
00:17:27,240 --> 00:17:30,640
Speaker 1: see if these companies can pass on uh these increased

302
00:17:30,680 --> 00:17:34,040
Speaker 1: costs or input costs onto consumers or not. UM. You know,

303
00:17:34,040 --> 00:17:37,439
Speaker 1: it looks like maybe industrials and retail companies may not

304
00:17:37,560 --> 00:17:39,439
Speaker 1: be as able to pass on those costs as some

305
00:17:39,480 --> 00:17:42,600
Speaker 1: of the other ones, so investors will probably be watching

306
00:17:42,640 --> 00:17:47,919
Speaker 1: that closely. What do you think about hedges? You know,

307
00:17:48,520 --> 00:17:51,440
Speaker 1: gold hasn't been performing the way you might have expected

308
00:17:51,440 --> 00:17:54,239
Speaker 1: it to inflation either, even if you don't, even if

309
00:17:54,240 --> 00:17:55,600
Speaker 1: you're not afraid of it, you might want to hedge

310
00:17:55,640 --> 00:17:59,560
Speaker 1: a little bit against it. How do you do that? Well?

311
00:17:59,600 --> 00:18:02,440
Speaker 1: In some ways, you can actually use the energy sector

312
00:18:02,640 --> 00:18:05,800
Speaker 1: and the financial sector is a hedge against higher interest rates,

313
00:18:05,800 --> 00:18:08,880
Speaker 1: and that's what we've seen almost all year long. Financials

314
00:18:09,040 --> 00:18:12,040
Speaker 1: is the second top performing sector, energy the number one

315
00:18:12,359 --> 00:18:15,879
Speaker 1: performing sector. Uh in those two sectors tend to do

316
00:18:16,000 --> 00:18:18,560
Speaker 1: well when interest rates rise. So if we believe that

317
00:18:19,000 --> 00:18:21,760
Speaker 1: interest rates are going to rise because we're seeing more

318
00:18:21,800 --> 00:18:25,800
Speaker 1: persistent inflation, the feed is about to potentially taper on

319
00:18:25,880 --> 00:18:29,520
Speaker 1: November three, then then those are good hedges against that trade. UM.

320
00:18:29,600 --> 00:18:31,919
Speaker 1: Other things you can do is more of like a

321
00:18:32,000 --> 00:18:35,679
Speaker 1: longer term you know, goal or change in your portfolio

322
00:18:35,800 --> 00:18:39,560
Speaker 1: is to shift over to higher quality companies, companies that

323
00:18:39,640 --> 00:18:43,760
Speaker 1: have really strong revenue growth and earnings growth um even

324
00:18:43,760 --> 00:18:47,480
Speaker 1: in times of more mid cycled type conditions where the

325
00:18:47,520 --> 00:18:50,760
Speaker 1: economy is kind of slowed down from its initial reopening,

326
00:18:50,880 --> 00:18:54,080
Speaker 1: and healthcare shares are a great example of that. They're

327
00:18:54,160 --> 00:18:57,639
Speaker 1: really really stable revenue growth UM. So we're looking at

328
00:18:57,720 --> 00:19:02,520
Speaker 1: higher quality companies UM, strong revenue, strong balance sheets, and

329
00:19:02,560 --> 00:19:05,679
Speaker 1: then also companies with high dividends and their ability to

330
00:19:05,720 --> 00:19:08,480
Speaker 1: grow dividends. Those types of companies do better as you

331
00:19:08,520 --> 00:19:11,560
Speaker 1: move into this more mid cycle type conditions. So that's

332
00:19:11,560 --> 00:19:13,960
Speaker 1: what we're telling our clients to do. Hey, Sean, thanks

333
00:19:14,000 --> 00:19:16,280
Speaker 1: so much for joining us. We really appreciate you taking

334
00:19:16,280 --> 00:19:19,800
Speaker 1: the time here. Shawn Snyder, head of investment strategy for

335
00:19:19,920 --> 00:19:24,240
Speaker 1: City US Consumer Wealth and Management, giving us his sense

336
00:19:24,320 --> 00:19:26,840
Speaker 1: of this market. Again. We've got earnings really kicking off

337
00:19:26,960 --> 00:19:30,479
Speaker 1: in earnest tomorrow. We'll get the banks this week at

338
00:19:30,480 --> 00:19:33,080
Speaker 1: the big banks, and obviously we always like hearing what

339
00:19:33,119 --> 00:19:36,080
Speaker 1: the bank management teams are saying about their customers and

340
00:19:36,160 --> 00:19:38,680
Speaker 1: loan demand and just business conditions. And of course, while

341
00:19:38,840 --> 00:19:42,080
Speaker 1: full earnings coverage over the next several weeks, this is

342
00:19:42,119 --> 00:19:48,760
Speaker 1: Bloomberg all right. Berndia uh said, Home managing partner said.

343
00:19:48,800 --> 00:19:51,840
Speaker 1: Home Law Group joins us here and a great great timings.

344
00:19:51,880 --> 00:19:54,040
Speaker 1: We think about just looking at the news this morning.

345
00:19:54,119 --> 00:19:58,240
Speaker 1: John Gruden, uh, the head coach of Las Vegas. We

346
00:19:58,280 --> 00:20:01,040
Speaker 1: can't even talk about that, y leaders. I mean you

347
00:20:01,080 --> 00:20:03,439
Speaker 1: know kind of it's bad. Yeah, it's it's bad. Some

348
00:20:03,520 --> 00:20:05,320
Speaker 1: bad emails there, and it kind of goes to the

349
00:20:05,840 --> 00:20:08,640
Speaker 1: you know, the workplace and behavior and what's acceptable what's

350
00:20:08,640 --> 00:20:12,240
Speaker 1: not acceptable in the toxicity of that workplace. And so Ronnie,

351
00:20:12,280 --> 00:20:14,840
Speaker 1: I thank so much for joining us here. Boy, it

352
00:20:14,920 --> 00:20:16,640
Speaker 1: seems like, you know, you look at some of these

353
00:20:16,640 --> 00:20:21,080
Speaker 1: big companies like Blue Origin, Amazon, Tesla, some real issues

354
00:20:21,119 --> 00:20:25,359
Speaker 1: about the workplace and toxicity, toxicity of that workplace in

355
00:20:25,400 --> 00:20:28,080
Speaker 1: today's environment. Give us a sense of kind of how

356
00:20:28,160 --> 00:20:32,600
Speaker 1: you think this this situation is developing across corporate America.

357
00:20:33,119 --> 00:20:35,440
Speaker 1: Thanks so much for having me on the show. I

358
00:20:35,720 --> 00:20:39,080
Speaker 1: I don't necessarily think this is developing across America. I

359
00:20:39,160 --> 00:20:42,640
Speaker 1: think we're hearing about it now. I think these issues

360
00:20:42,720 --> 00:20:47,639
Speaker 1: have been um sort of swept under the rug previously,

361
00:20:47,960 --> 00:20:54,879
Speaker 1: and now victims have been finding their voice and going

362
00:20:55,080 --> 00:20:57,040
Speaker 1: through the process that they need to go through in

363
00:20:57,160 --> 00:21:04,680
Speaker 1: order to seek some kind of redress. So what is

364
00:21:04,680 --> 00:21:07,879
Speaker 1: is there a line you can draw between things that

365
00:21:08,400 --> 00:21:11,560
Speaker 1: you definitely can't say with colleagues or other people in

366
00:21:11,600 --> 00:21:14,880
Speaker 1: your in your business or your industry, and things that

367
00:21:14,960 --> 00:21:18,480
Speaker 1: you say, you know, to your friends in a private

368
00:21:18,520 --> 00:21:21,440
Speaker 1: group or as you know, President Trump would have said

369
00:21:21,440 --> 00:21:25,600
Speaker 1: the locker room, for example, where's that line? You know

370
00:21:25,760 --> 00:21:30,040
Speaker 1: the line is blurring. On a daily basis, you have

371
00:21:30,240 --> 00:21:32,920
Speaker 1: to be careful about what you're saying and just ask

372
00:21:32,960 --> 00:21:36,240
Speaker 1: yourself before you make your comment, what is the rationale

373
00:21:36,280 --> 00:21:40,240
Speaker 1: behind your comment? Some people say things, uh that are

374
00:21:40,280 --> 00:21:43,280
Speaker 1: meant to be a joke, and that could be okay

375
00:21:43,320 --> 00:21:46,879
Speaker 1: depending on the receiving end. Right, does this person with

376
00:21:46,880 --> 00:21:49,360
Speaker 1: whom you're speaking think it's a joke outside of the workplace.

377
00:21:50,000 --> 00:21:55,520
Speaker 1: But sometimes people say things and they don't care about

378
00:21:55,560 --> 00:21:58,280
Speaker 1: the consequence of what they're saying. For example, in this

379
00:21:58,440 --> 00:22:01,760
Speaker 1: letter that was written by a blue Origin employees or

380
00:22:01,920 --> 00:22:05,320
Speaker 1: in former employees, there was someone who actually stated, you

381
00:22:05,320 --> 00:22:09,240
Speaker 1: should ask my opinion because I'm a man. That type

382
00:22:09,560 --> 00:22:16,240
Speaker 1: of I guess uh statement should not really be permitted

383
00:22:16,280 --> 00:22:18,879
Speaker 1: to be said in the workplace at the very least

384
00:22:19,320 --> 00:22:24,920
Speaker 1: because men and women should be treated equally. And while

385
00:22:25,000 --> 00:22:28,720
Speaker 1: there are various levels of intellect across the board, men

386
00:22:28,760 --> 00:22:30,960
Speaker 1: are not smarter than women. Women are not smarter than men.

387
00:22:31,119 --> 00:22:34,679
Speaker 1: It is on a you know, individualized basis, and to

388
00:22:34,800 --> 00:22:40,400
Speaker 1: just insult an entire group of people, it's not just offensive,

389
00:22:40,440 --> 00:22:44,720
Speaker 1: it's also illegal. You cannot have discriminatory animus in the workplace.

390
00:22:45,320 --> 00:22:48,200
Speaker 1: It's just that simple, Ronnie. What do you advise your

391
00:22:48,320 --> 00:22:52,719
Speaker 1: corporate clients to do here? I mean, there are there

392
00:22:52,880 --> 00:22:56,840
Speaker 1: some best practices that some corporations, or some companies or

393
00:22:56,880 --> 00:23:00,000
Speaker 1: some entities are doing that perhaps should be adopted by

394
00:23:00,040 --> 00:23:03,520
Speaker 1: more others. Yes, that's a great question, Thank you for asking.

395
00:23:03,560 --> 00:23:07,240
Speaker 1: I don't know how widespread these best practices are. Certainly

396
00:23:07,280 --> 00:23:10,960
Speaker 1: when I work with my employer clients, we discuss it,

397
00:23:11,080 --> 00:23:13,840
Speaker 1: and the first thing is to ask yourself, why is

398
00:23:13,880 --> 00:23:18,359
Speaker 1: this happening? Was it just you know, one bad actor actress.

399
00:23:18,880 --> 00:23:22,040
Speaker 1: If so, you know, terminating that person is sufficient, But

400
00:23:22,640 --> 00:23:25,760
Speaker 1: usually it's not just one actor actress. Usually it's a

401
00:23:25,800 --> 00:23:29,080
Speaker 1: group of people. So you need to address that in

402
00:23:29,119 --> 00:23:33,000
Speaker 1: the workplace and figure out why these individuals are being hired.

403
00:23:33,400 --> 00:23:36,200
Speaker 1: What kind of questions are you asking during the interview

404
00:23:36,520 --> 00:23:40,719
Speaker 1: to help mitigate misogyny and gender discrimination? What kind of

405
00:23:40,760 --> 00:23:44,159
Speaker 1: messaging and training are you providing the too employees. After

406
00:23:44,600 --> 00:23:48,320
Speaker 1: someone that's terminated because of an you know, alleged harassment

407
00:23:48,440 --> 00:23:52,200
Speaker 1: or actual harassment. It's not enough to simply send out

408
00:23:52,200 --> 00:23:55,600
Speaker 1: an a p D or a notice company wide that

409
00:23:55,640 --> 00:23:58,160
Speaker 1: says so and says no longer with us. Of course,

410
00:23:58,240 --> 00:24:02,200
Speaker 1: you don't need to delineate this cifics in that communication,

411
00:24:02,280 --> 00:24:06,560
Speaker 1: but there should be other communications afterwards that tell people,

412
00:24:06,760 --> 00:24:11,960
Speaker 1: you know, when someone is terminated because of discrimination, we

413
00:24:12,080 --> 00:24:14,840
Speaker 1: are going to determine whether or not that person was

414
00:24:14,920 --> 00:24:18,320
Speaker 1: aided and embedded by others in the workplace. We're not

415
00:24:18,359 --> 00:24:21,840
Speaker 1: going to stop it just simply, you know, giving out

416
00:24:21,920 --> 00:24:27,600
Speaker 1: hush money to the victim and firing the person who

417
00:24:27,680 --> 00:24:30,199
Speaker 1: was alleged to have done X or y. That is

418
00:24:30,600 --> 00:24:34,640
Speaker 1: normally not enough. And then what measures are you taking

419
00:24:35,359 --> 00:24:38,680
Speaker 1: to be proactive to protect the confidentiality of those individuals

420
00:24:38,840 --> 00:24:41,399
Speaker 1: who complain, Because that is also a fear that I,

421
00:24:41,960 --> 00:24:44,400
Speaker 1: you know, often hear about from others. I didn't want

422
00:24:44,400 --> 00:24:46,200
Speaker 1: to go to HR because I was worried I would

423
00:24:46,240 --> 00:24:48,480
Speaker 1: lose my job. I didn't want to go to HR

424
00:24:48,560 --> 00:24:51,960
Speaker 1: because I was worried that they wouldn't keep it confidential. Well,

425
00:24:52,040 --> 00:24:56,760
Speaker 1: these are you can train employees in HR on how

426
00:24:56,800 --> 00:25:00,560
Speaker 1: to maintain confidentiality. Because I think from my practice I

427
00:25:00,600 --> 00:25:04,760
Speaker 1: see that they often don't understand what that really means. Right, Well,

428
00:25:04,800 --> 00:25:07,280
Speaker 1: it's very important stuff and we really appreciate you joining

429
00:25:07,320 --> 00:25:09,239
Speaker 1: us talk about it. Ronnie I said home. They are

430
00:25:09,280 --> 00:25:11,720
Speaker 1: managing partner at the Said Home Law Group talking to

431
00:25:11,840 --> 00:25:17,520
Speaker 1: us about workplace toxicicity. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg

432
00:25:17,520 --> 00:25:20,920
Speaker 1: Markets podcast. You can subscribe and listen to interviews with

433
00:25:21,000 --> 00:25:25,800
Speaker 1: Apple Podcasts or whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm Matt Miller.

434
00:25:26,080 --> 00:25:30,480
Speaker 1: I'm on Twitter at Matt Miller. On Ball Sweeney, I'm

435
00:25:30,480 --> 00:25:33,119
Speaker 1: on Twitter at pt Sweeney Before the podcast. You can

436
00:25:33,160 --> 00:25:35,400
Speaker 1: always catch us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio