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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game? Do us prout

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Speaker 1: read a lot? They're up for running a game so smooth,

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Speaker 1: so sweet.

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Speaker 2: Splendid sixteen just glorious executions.

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Speaker 1: Guys, all I'm looking for is sixty percent effort four

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Speaker 1: thousand percent.

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Speaker 3: Of the time. How shot with.

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Speaker 4: That shot with find but buddy, And that's why you.

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Speaker 3: See your beautiful Tias.

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Speaker 1: Look at his movements, the.

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Speaker 3: Most dangerous amount of the planet.

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Speaker 1: Nobody picture them.

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Speaker 2: Shut up.

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Speaker 3: I'm turning again.

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Speaker 2: For all it's left to of the wide eyed drill confused?

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Speaker 1: How old Earth picked that happens?

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Speaker 4: Hello everybody, and welcome back to Wonder Goal, the soccer

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Speaker 4: betting podcast from the Action Network, presented to you by

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Speaker 4: Bet three sixty five, the world's favorite sportsbook brand. Sign

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Speaker 4: up with promo code Action to get Bet three six

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Speaker 4: fives exclusive sign up offer in New Jersey and Colorado.

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Speaker 4: You bet one dollar in any game, you get two

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Speaker 4: hundred free. We're back to talk about the Premier League

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Speaker 4: this weekend. Ten games coming our way. Then we'll do

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Speaker 4: a little jount around Europe, will give out our favorite underdogs,

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Speaker 4: and then at the very end give out our best

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Speaker 4: bets in this match week for the Premier League. But

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Speaker 4: we have to start in North London where BJ's Arsenal

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Speaker 4: take on Anthony's Liverpool. Arsenal's plus one fifty at home.

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Speaker 4: Liverpool plus one fifty five to draw here is plus

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Speaker 4: two sixty those odds, of course provided by bet three

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Speaker 4: six five. Anthony, we'll start with you here. Your other team, Tottenham,

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Speaker 4: your second team. They closed plus two seventy on the road.

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Speaker 4: I guess Arsenal Liverpool's plus one fifty five. I think

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Speaker 4: right away that's telling you that there might be a

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Speaker 4: little bit of value here on Arsenal. I'm looking that way.

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Speaker 4: I can hear arguments otherwise, what do you have here?

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Speaker 3: I think it's very hard to make the case, you know,

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Speaker 3: and I went back and forth on this in front

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Speaker 3: of the pod. Birdie Miller was like, how are we

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Speaker 3: not taking Arsenal. My first glance with most of the

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Speaker 3: line was from a bylow and sell high point of view.

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Speaker 3: How are you not buying low on Liverpool and selling

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Speaker 3: high on Arsenal. I mean, Liverpool have looked shaky, they

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Speaker 3: just drew Brighton Arsenal get the big win in the

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Speaker 3: derby against Spurs. Now there's a natural letdown but what's

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Speaker 3: the argument that Liverpool as currently constructed is better than Arsenal.

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Speaker 3: It's entirely a prior's argument to make that case, and

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Speaker 3: it depends on when you set those priors, because if

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Speaker 3: you go back to the last two months of last season,

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Speaker 3: Arsenal Liverpool were comparable teams. If you go to the

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Speaker 3: first two months now of this season, Arsenal has a

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Speaker 3: better expected goal difference than Liverpool through the first eight

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Speaker 3: matches of the season. If you look at their schedules,

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Speaker 3: they're very comparable. Both teams played United Liverpool, you know,

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Speaker 3: both teams losing to United, but Liverpool didn't you know,

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Speaker 3: they didn't have to play Spurs, so there's a maybe

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Speaker 3: a scheduling advantage. I'd argue that Arsenal have played a

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Speaker 3: slightly slightly tougher schedule. Arsenal haven't played Brighton, of course,

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Speaker 3: but other than that, you know, from a number point

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Speaker 3: of view, I'm pretty close, and I actually am very

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Speaker 3: close to showing value on Arsenal here because I've bumped

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Speaker 3: them considerably and I know BJA refuses to do so,

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Speaker 3: but I think that we're bagging a little bit too

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Speaker 3: much of our priors of the first half of last

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Speaker 3: season now into our data. If we're saying that these

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Speaker 3: two teams are even.

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Speaker 4: At Arsenal, I was shocked. I thought, like you, I mean,

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Speaker 4: and I haven't bet on Liverpool in a very long time,

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Speaker 4: just because of how good they've been and the price

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Speaker 4: has been so out of control. Before looking at the

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Speaker 4: eyes at bet three six five, I thought, you know,

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Speaker 4: I'm gonna have to swallow it here and probably bet Liverpool,

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Speaker 4: especially if they're around the number that were, you know,

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Speaker 4: close to the number that Tottenham closed that. I looked

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Speaker 4: at the number and this one just doesn't make sense

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Speaker 4: to me and BJ I don't understand. You know, you're

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Speaker 4: an Arsenal supporter, Anthony, and I over here, he's a

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Speaker 4: Liverpool supporter. I'm an Everdent fan, so I'm a little

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Speaker 4: biased here, but I don't understand how you're not jumping

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Speaker 4: in with them.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, it's Anthony's point, it's Prior's right, because

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Speaker 2: what you have to ask yourself, Okay, is Liverpool significantly

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Speaker 2: worse and not significantly worse? But are they a big

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Speaker 2: time step down from the magical run last season? I

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Speaker 2: would say yes and no. I think they've gone through

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Speaker 2: some struggles. You know, Thiago being out for a long

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Speaker 2: time kind of messes with the numbers for Liverpool, especially

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Speaker 2: defensively he's been back. I thought it was interesting clop

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Speaker 2: switched to a four two three one against Rangers in

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Speaker 2: the Champions League and just to get four attackers on

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Speaker 2: the field. You know, if he plays something like that,

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Speaker 2: I think that gives Liverpool a little more structure and

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Speaker 2: a little more attacking threat. What's interesting is, you know

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Speaker 2: the match towards the second half of last season, it

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Speaker 2: was a mid week one. It was a makeup match.

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Speaker 2: I believe it was on a Wednesday. Liverpool won that

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Speaker 2: match to nothing x she was pretty close. You know,

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Speaker 2: the team really created anything of value. I'm pretty sure

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Speaker 2: there was a goalkeeping mistake from Ramsdale on the first goal.

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Speaker 2: But to make the case for Arsenal is in that match,

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Speaker 2: Liverpool only had a twenty five percent pressure success rate

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Speaker 2: and Liverpool's press has not been to the intensity that

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Speaker 2: it's been in last season. You saw Brighton was able

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Speaker 2: to play right through it. Deserve me basically just baited

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Speaker 2: on the press. Liverpool just doesn't have the intensity, so

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Speaker 2: they you know, they create overloads in between the lines

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Speaker 2: and they got their passing structures together and they played

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Speaker 2: right through Liverpool. Arsenal can do the exact same thing.

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Speaker 2: I can't get to the number on Arsenal if it's.

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Speaker 1: A truly bake.

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Speaker 2: I mean, Liverpool's run last season was historic, right they were,

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Speaker 2: but this is not they were.

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Speaker 1: They were they were.

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Speaker 2: A plus one point seven actually differential for ninety like

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Speaker 2: they were incredible. So to say that Liverpool is now,

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Speaker 2: you know, essentially a point where they at point seven

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Speaker 2: right now, essentially a goal worse, I don't.

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Speaker 1: I don't buy that at all. Like I think there's

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Speaker 1: still somewhere in the one point two to one point.

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Speaker 2: Three range and I don't know if I can price

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Speaker 2: Arsenal up there yet, So for me, I'm passing. I

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Speaker 2: do think there is a little value Liverpool though, I

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Speaker 2: really do, Like I know they haven't been good, but

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Speaker 2: Canthee said this is a great this is a good

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Speaker 2: cell high spot on Arsenal.

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Speaker 1: But there's no way I'm betting against Arsenal.

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Speaker 4: But you're not selling high. The price is.

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Speaker 3: It's a big com I don't understand home at home.

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Speaker 1: Look, I don't.

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Speaker 3: I don't think Liverpool are four tenths of a goal

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Speaker 3: better than Arsenal right now on a neutral field for

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Speaker 3: ninety don't I don't.

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Speaker 4: Ye at this very moment.

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Speaker 3: No, not with Arsenal putting out numbers that they're a

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Speaker 3: goal better than their opponents thus far, and especially at home. Look,

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Speaker 3: you can make criticisms of Arsenal away from home, and

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Speaker 3: I think there will be fade spots for them down

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Speaker 3: the road. And look, I thought early in the season

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Speaker 3: there was a couple of good ones where you know,

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Speaker 3: maybe they were a little overvalued. Laying you know, multiple goals,

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Speaker 3: goal and a half. You know, the full of match

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Speaker 3: comes to mind. But even that match, you know they

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Speaker 3: were they dominated that match, right and you go back

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Speaker 3: to the Palace match opening day, probably their worst performance

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Speaker 3: of the season until United. So you know, their two

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Speaker 3: worst performances coming on the road are notable when when

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Speaker 3: they've been so dominant at home, and I think that's

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Speaker 3: that's got to be taken into consideration here.

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Speaker 2: The one thing I'll say is that Liverpool's too toughest

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Speaker 2: matches this season against Napoli and Manchester United. Iago did

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Speaker 2: not play, so we'll see how much of a difference

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Speaker 2: he makes. I mean, we know within right now, but

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Speaker 2: we'll see they were.

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Speaker 4: They drew evert In, they drew Bright.

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Speaker 1: This this I don't. We'll see.

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Speaker 4: This is crazy. Yeah, going from Arsenal Liverpool to Bournemuth

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Speaker 4: and Leicester, it's a beautiful way to transition. The Cherries

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Speaker 4: there plus two fifty at home Leicester plus one oh

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Speaker 4: five underdogs on the road off of their big win

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Speaker 4: in the relegation six pointer on Monday Night football against

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Speaker 4: non Eland Force. The draw here is plus two forty.

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Speaker 4: We know that this Bournemouth offense can't create anything. The

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Speaker 4: defense though, is you know, not terrible. If you remove

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Speaker 4: that nine mierl drubbing to Liverpool, they've only allowed ten

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Speaker 4: goals and seven the other seven matches minus nine point

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Speaker 4: six expected goal differential on the season, which when you're

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Speaker 4: only creating three point eight expected goals four on the season,

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Speaker 4: it kind of shows you that their defense is not

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Speaker 4: the issue here, right That said, like, their offense isn't

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Speaker 4: the type that you want to back against a tough

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Speaker 4: defensive side. This is a pretty easy pass for me here.

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Speaker 4: I'm not I'm not too interested in going against Lester

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Speaker 4: again with another terrible team, so I'm going to pass.

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Speaker 4: But you two think we could seeing a little bit

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Speaker 4: of a cage rattler BJ absolutely.

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Speaker 2: I mean the under two and a half being plus

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Speaker 2: money is pretty crazy in this match. So Bournemouth they're

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Speaker 2: still yet to create over one expected goal in a

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Speaker 2: match this season. They've created just two big scoring chances

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Speaker 2: against non Big six sides. Like you mentioned, Michael, they

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Speaker 2: have been pretty good defensively and the matches against Aston Villa, Nottingham, Forest, Wolves,

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Speaker 2: Newcastle and Brentford, those matches only averaged one point nine

184
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Speaker 2: expected goals total. Lester, on the other hand, against non

185
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Speaker 2: Big six sides because they've played quite a few, they've

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Speaker 2: also been playing really low event styles because you know

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Speaker 2: the four matches they played Brentford, Southampton, Brighton and Forrest,

188
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Speaker 2: those matches only have averaged two point one expected goals.

189
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Speaker 2: Now Bournemouth has created the fewest big scoring chances, Lester

190
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Speaker 2: has created the second fewest. They've only created three so

191
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Speaker 2: far on the season and Lester this season their matches

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Speaker 2: have had thirty six goals off of twenty point three

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Speaker 2: expected That is insane. It has to do with, like

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Speaker 2: we've mentioned many times, Danny Ward being one of the

195
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Speaker 2: worst goalkeepers that the Premier league has ever seen. And

196
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Speaker 2: also James Madison has scored five goals off of one

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Speaker 2: point two expected to start the season, so I think

198
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Speaker 2: this is a great regression type game. I think Bournemouth

199
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Speaker 2: is going to be able to sit in their usual

200
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Speaker 2: deep low block, and I have no faith in Lester

201
00:09:16,600 --> 00:09:18,600
Speaker 2: being able to try and break down that low block.

202
00:09:18,679 --> 00:09:20,800
Speaker 1: So I only have two point three goals projected.

203
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Speaker 2: I think it's kind of crazy that the under two

204
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Speaker 2: and a half is that plus money, So give me

205
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Speaker 2: under two and a half goals.

206
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Speaker 4: I was really kicking myself this week on Monday.

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Speaker 1: Or are you not on Bournemouth, Michael? This is crazy?

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Speaker 3: The number is not even good, it's not good enough.

209
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Speaker 3: I actually kind of lean toward Leicester here. I think

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Speaker 3: there's a danger zone situation. Leicester's underline numbers are not

211
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Speaker 3: as bad as their table position would indicate. You know,

212
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Speaker 3: you look at the box progression numbers that we'd like

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Speaker 3: to talk about box entries attacking and defending. They're actually

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Speaker 3: ninth in cross is completed, there's seventh in progressive passes,

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Speaker 3: and they are seventh in box entries allowed. So there, there.

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Speaker 4: Here come the Foxes. Baby.

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Speaker 3: No, I'm not saying that because I think there's other fault.

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Speaker 3: I think there's a lot of problems.

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Speaker 1: The goalie is a big one.

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Speaker 3: There's other problems too. They still can't defense that pieces,

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Speaker 3: but Forrest could have had a couple. But I think

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Speaker 3: there's a danger when you have Bournemouth who is going

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Speaker 3: to sit extremely deep like they did against Wolves. I

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Speaker 3: mean if you can't, if you're letting Wolves dominate possession

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Speaker 3: against you on your home turf, which is what happened

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Speaker 3: when they played a few weeks ago, you run into

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Speaker 3: a real problem if Lester is going to get the

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Speaker 3: ball on the edge of the area a bunch of times.

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Speaker 3: With the players they have and the quality that they

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Speaker 3: tend to show in those situations between Harvey Bonds and

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Speaker 3: James Madison, I just feel like you're asking to concede

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Speaker 3: dumb goals where we're gonna sit here and we're gonna go,

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Speaker 3: oh my god, James Madison scored a twenty yard goal again,

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Speaker 3: Well yeah, if he's just standing there on the edge

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Speaker 3: of the box and nobody's near him, you know there's

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Speaker 3: a danger in how Bournemouth is going to probably try

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Speaker 3: to set up here where a team like Wolves they

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Speaker 3: took a bunch of shots from deep and didn't score.

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Speaker 3: I think Lester may turn up the pressure here and

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Speaker 3: actually get a result. I lean toward them. I also

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Speaker 3: lean toward the under, but first of all, it's born

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Speaker 3: with the taxt terrible under. Four expected goals for the year.

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Speaker 3: But how do I I can't do it. I at

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Speaker 3: the end of the other day felt like I was

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Speaker 3: on the right side there, and then the goals just

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Speaker 3: kept pouring in and that wasn't even lesser conceding this time.

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Speaker 3: So I'm gonna probably end up staying away here, but

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Speaker 3: I'm very close to Leicester.

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Speaker 4: I was telling friend of the pod, one of our

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Speaker 4: only guests ever along Shapiro, that I was kicking myself

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Speaker 4: for now I say Fabrizio. Now, Fabrizio is on a

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Speaker 4: different level. Of course, he is not only a friend

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Speaker 4: of the pod, he's the godfather of this podcast, and

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Speaker 4: hopefully we'll hear from him again soon. But I was

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Speaker 4: selling a long Shapiro. I was pissed at myself for

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Speaker 4: not backing James Madison to score on Monday because the

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Speaker 4: darts are in Lesser and he's a huge darts fan.

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Speaker 4: He was playing darts with Garin Price and Joe Cullen

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Speaker 4: after their game. So that's on me. I failed everybody

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Speaker 4: listening to this podcast for not putting that together. Let's

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Speaker 4: move on now to Chelsea and Wolves. This one's taking

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Speaker 4: place at Stanford Bridge. Chelsea odds on minus two fifty

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Speaker 4: at bet three six five, Wolves coming back six and

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Speaker 4: a half to one. The draw is plus three seventy five.

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Speaker 4: Brunolage man, somebody on this podcast about a year and

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Speaker 4: some change ago, I thought Brunolage was going to be

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Speaker 4: one of the most underrated managers in the Premier League.

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Speaker 2: I won't say I think it was. I think the

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Speaker 2: word revolution was was thrown out there.

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Speaker 4: Hey, not all revolutions succeed. You know, history is littered

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Speaker 4: with failed revolutions. Bja true. So the brune Olage revolution

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Speaker 4: sputtered out once again. We won't say who thought it

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Speaker 4: was going to be a successful revolution. James Collins and

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Speaker 4: Steve Davis will be the co care taker managers for Wolverhampton,

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Speaker 4: who have scored three whole goals this season. God blessed Wolves.

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Speaker 3: Almost Diego Costa was offside, it was closed.

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Speaker 4: I was like, that's the Wolverhampton storry. Almost had a fourth. Yeah,

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Speaker 4: six point nine expected, So yes, this is like last

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Speaker 4: year too. The goals will come, Anthony will be benning

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Speaker 4: Wolves overs.

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Speaker 1: Uh.

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Speaker 4: As the weather starts to.

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Speaker 3: Turn cold, they hire low Potagy. I mean.

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Speaker 1: That's hilarious. They're gonna.

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Speaker 3: It's just I mean, look a domitor dream.

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Speaker 4: They're just gonna.

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Speaker 3: I mean, look, Savilla, we're notorious for their crossing. Was

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Speaker 3: Lucas acompos susso just crossing into El Nazri that.

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Speaker 4: He's not there yet.

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Speaker 3: They're gonna do the same thing if they hire him.

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Speaker 3: It's gonna be trying, alright, just cross cross, Let's get

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Speaker 3: it to Adama cross cross cross. But only like one

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Speaker 3: of them will be any good. So who I mean,

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Speaker 3: we'll see who they hire.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, we'll see who they hire. But Chelsea they've already

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Speaker 4: taken care of. They're hiring and it was Graham Potter

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Speaker 4: and he got them on the right track with a

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Speaker 4: win over the weekend against Crystal Palace and then over

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Speaker 4: the midweek against the battered a Symalan team on Wednesday.

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Speaker 4: I got nothing here. I really want to pet Wolves,

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Speaker 4: but I can't. We always say on the podcast that

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Speaker 4: the new manager Bounce is really just positive regression coming

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Speaker 4: for teams and I just three goals. It's it's just

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Speaker 4: not enough. It's I don't trust the offense to be

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Speaker 4: able to break down this Chelsea defense, the Grand Potter

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Speaker 4: Chelsea defense, especially if Thiago whatever his name is, is

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Speaker 4: a lot to handball three times in the box and

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Speaker 4: not get sent off the Young of Silva like he

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Speaker 4: did against Palace, who have to be the most unlucky

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Speaker 4: team in terms of referee decisions this season between that

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Speaker 4: and the City game. So yeah, it's a pass for

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Speaker 4: me here, BJ what do you got?

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Speaker 2: So I wasn't gonna play this game. I was like,

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Speaker 2: whatever pass, and then I was just taking a look.

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Speaker 1: At the injury iportant.

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Speaker 2: Holy moley, do you guys to know who's gonna be

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Speaker 2: playing essentially for Wolves and attack? I mean Jimenez metto

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Speaker 2: he Chan Wang Closet, Dich and Nevis are all out. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: so it's gonna be some version of Diego Costa Oudam

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Speaker 2: like then Donker like, it's gonna be bad, And I

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Speaker 2: have no idea how they're gonna threaten this Chelsea box

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Speaker 2: because I mean Wolves there, they're at point eighty seven

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Speaker 2: non penalty X Sheep for ninety like, that's a pretty

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Speaker 2: much where they were around last season when they were

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Speaker 2: one of the worst offenses in the Premier League and Grandpotters.

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Speaker 2: Chelsea has not allowed an opponent to create over one

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Speaker 2: expected goal yet Salzburg had three shots, Palace had seven

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Speaker 2: shots and Milan had three shots in the Champions League today.

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Speaker 2: So for Wolves, who is one of the most least

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Speaker 2: efficient offenses in the Premier League, they have the second

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Speaker 2: highest shot distance on average, about nineteen yards away from

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Speaker 2: the goal. I have no idea how they're going to

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Speaker 2: score here, So both team to score now at minus

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Speaker 2: one thirty eight for me, as an ode to Bruno

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Speaker 2: Lage one more time.

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Speaker 4: Let's go there.

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Speaker 3: I ran my numbers and came up with a huge

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Speaker 3: value on Wolves and I was said, that can't be right,

339
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Speaker 3: and then pull up the injury report and I was like, yeah,

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Speaker 3: that looks right. So yeah, I'm passing here me as well.

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Speaker 4: So that means we can talk about Man City. They're

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Speaker 4: pretty good minus nine hundred against Southampton this match is

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Speaker 4: ticket place at the Etty. Had Saints plus eighteen hundred

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Speaker 4: eighteen to one, the Jaws eight to one. I mean

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Speaker 4: we get to this point every year with City, it's like, oh,

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Speaker 4: what can we even say about them anymore? Let's talk

347
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Speaker 4: about Saints though ninth in non penalty expected goals allowed,

348
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Speaker 4: but the chances they give up are usually quality. Seventeenth

349
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Speaker 4: in the Premier League in big scoring chances allowed, and

350
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Speaker 4: you saw in their loss to I think kind of

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Speaker 4: the issue right there. They're pretty easy to bully in

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Speaker 4: their own box, like they're they're not going to be

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Speaker 4: like this robust team around the six yard box. I

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Speaker 4: think everyone is pretty high on bellacochep as a young

355
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Speaker 4: promising like you know, center back, but he's got some

356
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Speaker 4: ways to go. He'll he'll kill get there, and I

357
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Speaker 4: think that's the kind of the case with this whole team.

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Speaker 4: The spine just isn't tough enough. And I think a

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Speaker 4: lot of that is Romeu not being around, Like that's

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Speaker 4: a guy who was just really hard to play against,

361
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Speaker 4: Like you didn't want to go up against that guy

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Speaker 4: in the middle of the pitch. It feels like they

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Speaker 4: just are not capable or suited. They don't have the

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Speaker 4: personnel to handle Holland. And you know, I might be

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Speaker 4: like oversimplifying and creating a narrative just to base around

366
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Speaker 4: one player, but it's just how it is at this

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Speaker 4: point with the City team. So even at eighteen to one,

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Speaker 4: I'm usually this type of number in the Premier League

369
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Speaker 4: is automatically a play for me because we'll see one

370
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Speaker 4: or two of a year, but you know I'm going

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Speaker 4: to sit out, so this will be the one that

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Speaker 4: kayesh is allah. It was right around this time of year,

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Speaker 4: I would say with Palasin and City maybe a little

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Speaker 4: later in the year for that one where they want.

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Speaker 3: It was Halloween weekend.

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Speaker 4: Yes, it was a twenty to one underdog, so it's

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Speaker 4: going to be a pass year. BJ. Of the three

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Speaker 4: of us, you are the only one who's into this.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think both teams score no is kind of

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Speaker 2: cheap and minus won twenty five.

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Speaker 1: Who cares about the City offense. Yeah, they'll probably score.

382
00:17:15,840 --> 00:17:20,040
Speaker 2: Four or five here, But the Southampton offense really hasn't

383
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Speaker 2: been that good. They've obviously just created over two expected

384
00:17:22,720 --> 00:17:25,119
Speaker 2: goals against Everton, but I mean they're still at one

385
00:17:25,119 --> 00:17:27,639
Speaker 2: point zero five non penalty per ninety. They've only created

386
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Speaker 2: seven big scoring chances in eight matches. They only have

387
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Speaker 2: a little over six expected goals from open play. The

388
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Speaker 2: problem is is they just don't have a consistent goal

389
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Speaker 2: scoring threat, Like nobody on the team has scored more

390
00:17:37,640 --> 00:17:39,880
Speaker 2: than two goals. H Adams and Adam Armstrong are both

391
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Speaker 2: averaging under point three x GP per ninety And maybe

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Speaker 2: the most concerning thing in terms of this match is

393
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Speaker 2: that they are the worst team in the rerely get

394
00:17:46,160 --> 00:17:48,919
Speaker 2: playing through pressure. They're dead last in offensive pass per

395
00:17:48,920 --> 00:17:51,520
Speaker 2: defensive action and the City defense I mean only four

396
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Speaker 2: point nine expected goals allowed in eight matches, Like if

397
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Speaker 2: you remove penalties, the only team that's created more than

398
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Speaker 2: one expected goal against them was new Castle. So this

399
00:18:01,280 --> 00:18:03,720
Speaker 2: defense has continued to just be one of the best

400
00:18:03,760 --> 00:18:05,400
Speaker 2: in the world. Does maybe if you know, some teams

401
00:18:05,400 --> 00:18:07,160
Speaker 2: have leaked through and got some goals. So yeah, both

402
00:18:07,200 --> 00:18:08,800
Speaker 2: team to score No. Minus one twenty five I think

403
00:18:08,880 --> 00:18:11,919
Speaker 2: is a tattoo cheap for how bad this Southampton offense

404
00:18:12,000 --> 00:18:12,639
Speaker 2: is and the fact.

405
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Speaker 1: They're not gonna be able to play through pressure against City.

406
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Speaker 4: I was a little surprised when I saw our show

407
00:18:17,160 --> 00:18:19,080
Speaker 4: notes that neither of you are going to be joining

408
00:18:19,080 --> 00:18:21,600
Speaker 4: me on this one. Newcastle minus one thirty four Brentford

409
00:18:21,880 --> 00:18:23,959
Speaker 4: plus three thirty three on the road. The trail here

410
00:18:23,960 --> 00:18:26,960
Speaker 4: is plus two seventy five. Newcastle has been much better

411
00:18:27,000 --> 00:18:30,199
Speaker 4: than their record suggests. We know that we've covered that

412
00:18:30,359 --> 00:18:32,440
Speaker 4: they should have more than two wins according to their

413
00:18:32,600 --> 00:18:35,880
Speaker 4: goal differential, expecta gole difference or whatever. But I still

414
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Speaker 4: think this number seems a little bit high because they're

415
00:18:38,359 --> 00:18:40,679
Speaker 4: going up against a good team and I know Brentford

416
00:18:41,560 --> 00:18:44,480
Speaker 4: does their game travel on the road away from Brentford

417
00:18:44,480 --> 00:18:47,720
Speaker 4: Community Stadium. That's always a question, but it's still I

418
00:18:47,760 --> 00:18:49,320
Speaker 4: think it's still a decent number on a team that

419
00:18:49,400 --> 00:18:51,919
Speaker 4: has shown to be in that kind of eighth to

420
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Speaker 4: twelve best team in the Premier League get so far

421
00:18:54,720 --> 00:18:57,920
Speaker 4: the season. So I like and Newcastle isn't that much

422
00:18:57,920 --> 00:19:00,320
Speaker 4: ahead of that, So I I like Brentford here on

423
00:19:00,359 --> 00:19:02,800
Speaker 4: the road plus three thirty three, Anthony. They're the third

424
00:19:02,840 --> 00:19:05,720
Speaker 4: best team at creating big score chances. That's something Newcastle

425
00:19:05,760 --> 00:19:08,440
Speaker 4: doesn't do a good job at preventing. Flip it over.

426
00:19:08,640 --> 00:19:11,320
Speaker 4: Newcastle does a good job at creating big swaring chances

427
00:19:11,359 --> 00:19:14,640
Speaker 4: for themselves, third in the Premier League, but the Bees

428
00:19:14,800 --> 00:19:17,040
Speaker 4: are six best to prevent preventing them. So they're a

429
00:19:17,040 --> 00:19:19,320
Speaker 4: tough team to beat, better than three to one going

430
00:19:19,400 --> 00:19:22,400
Speaker 4: up against a non elite team. I'll take it.

431
00:19:22,480 --> 00:19:24,520
Speaker 3: Yeah. I think Brentford can find some success here and

432
00:19:24,560 --> 00:19:27,520
Speaker 3: transition opportunities. I do think Newcastle's a little bit weak there,

433
00:19:28,240 --> 00:19:31,680
Speaker 3: but Newcastle's had very impressive underlying numbers and you can't

434
00:19:31,720 --> 00:19:33,640
Speaker 3: really take much from last week but the early red

435
00:19:33,680 --> 00:19:36,080
Speaker 3: card against Fulham. But they're a team who continues to

436
00:19:36,119 --> 00:19:38,919
Speaker 3: be due for some positive regression. Their field tilt numbers

437
00:19:38,920 --> 00:19:42,399
Speaker 3: fifth best in the league, expected threat fourth best in

438
00:19:42,440 --> 00:19:45,600
Speaker 3: the league. There's a lot of things to like about

439
00:19:45,640 --> 00:19:48,480
Speaker 3: Newcastle and there's not as much to like about Brentford

440
00:19:48,480 --> 00:19:50,520
Speaker 3: away from home in this spot where they're you know,

441
00:19:50,560 --> 00:19:52,879
Speaker 3: I think Brentford's solidly an average team in the Premier League,

442
00:19:53,040 --> 00:19:56,159
Speaker 3: but going on the road plus a half against a

443
00:19:56,160 --> 00:19:58,719
Speaker 3: better team, no thanks. If it got to plus one,

444
00:19:58,720 --> 00:20:00,520
Speaker 3: i'd bet it, but I'm not betting for here.

445
00:20:01,080 --> 00:20:03,440
Speaker 4: Let's talky about Brighton then. This is the twelve thirty

446
00:20:03,480 --> 00:20:07,640
Speaker 4: pm kickoff on Saturday.

447
00:20:07,920 --> 00:20:09,960
Speaker 3: I'm disappointed that bj is not joining me here, but

448
00:20:10,000 --> 00:20:12,360
Speaker 3: I know you.

449
00:20:11,920 --> 00:20:14,440
Speaker 1: You are insane to think that this line.

450
00:20:14,920 --> 00:20:18,600
Speaker 4: This is kind of the of the Arsenal Liverpool match

451
00:20:18,600 --> 00:20:21,200
Speaker 4: where I looked at this line I was like, this

452
00:20:21,359 --> 00:20:24,720
Speaker 4: doesn't make sense. To me. But the Seagulls are plus

453
00:20:24,760 --> 00:20:27,160
Speaker 4: one seventy five at home hosting Spurs plus one fifty

454
00:20:27,240 --> 00:20:30,679
Speaker 4: bet three six five the drugs plus two forty. I

455
00:20:30,680 --> 00:20:32,480
Speaker 4: got nothing here. I think this line looks right, and

456
00:20:32,520 --> 00:20:34,919
Speaker 4: I was expecting it to be a lot higher on Brighton.

457
00:20:34,920 --> 00:20:37,879
Speaker 4: But Anthony think it's more than suitable for a bet.

458
00:20:38,280 --> 00:20:40,160
Speaker 3: Look, I thought, Look, I bet Spurs for the first

459
00:20:40,160 --> 00:20:42,960
Speaker 3: time all year on Tuesday, and after watching that game

460
00:20:42,960 --> 00:20:44,679
Speaker 3: play out, I would bet it again and again and

461
00:20:44,720 --> 00:20:47,840
Speaker 3: again and again. I thought that was good process, bad results.

462
00:20:48,200 --> 00:20:49,520
Speaker 3: Spurs got Kane.

463
00:20:49,280 --> 00:20:50,160
Speaker 1: King couldn't happen.

464
00:20:50,400 --> 00:20:51,920
Speaker 3: Yeah, I couldn't tap it, and they got him free

465
00:20:51,960 --> 00:20:55,680
Speaker 3: in the box twice man like in the six yard

466
00:20:55,680 --> 00:20:58,280
Speaker 3: box for crosses and he just whifted on him and

467
00:20:58,320 --> 00:21:01,159
Speaker 3: then you know, swing just misses. Why and Charleston had

468
00:21:01,160 --> 00:21:03,400
Speaker 3: a chance. There were chances, and Spurs were the better side.

469
00:21:03,400 --> 00:21:07,879
Speaker 3: They should have won it. Sometimes that happens in soccer.

470
00:21:08,359 --> 00:21:11,000
Speaker 3: I don't take too much into it in terms of

471
00:21:11,040 --> 00:21:13,960
Speaker 3: the result of the game. Now, when you watch back

472
00:21:13,960 --> 00:21:16,480
Speaker 3: what happened in the game, I think you run into

473
00:21:16,680 --> 00:21:19,200
Speaker 3: an issue that I'm now concerned about, which is the

474
00:21:19,280 --> 00:21:22,240
Speaker 3: day on Koliseevski injury because I love her Charleston, but

475
00:21:22,359 --> 00:21:26,639
Speaker 3: this team lacks creativity right now when Kouloseevski is not

476
00:21:26,680 --> 00:21:30,960
Speaker 3: on the pitch. Remember spurs big run, Yes, it started

477
00:21:30,960 --> 00:21:33,480
Speaker 3: with Antonio Conte in November. They got everybody going, Kane

478
00:21:33,520 --> 00:21:36,159
Speaker 3: and Song were firing and everything was great. But when

479
00:21:36,200 --> 00:21:39,159
Speaker 3: they took the next step, it was when Kouloseevsky came

480
00:21:39,200 --> 00:21:41,640
Speaker 3: into the team and they have not been as good

481
00:21:41,680 --> 00:21:44,439
Speaker 3: without him because they don't have a playmaker. Who's the

482
00:21:44,440 --> 00:21:48,080
Speaker 3: playmaker for Spurs right now? It's Ivan Parisitch probably on

483
00:21:48,160 --> 00:21:51,160
Speaker 3: the left wing back, and then Emerson Royal stinks and

484
00:21:51,520 --> 00:21:54,400
Speaker 3: it's Kouliseevski who is not probably not going to play

485
00:21:54,400 --> 00:21:56,360
Speaker 3: in this match. So you need with Charleston and they

486
00:21:56,400 --> 00:21:58,400
Speaker 3: get the ball to the final third, and they seem

487
00:21:58,480 --> 00:22:00,679
Speaker 3: like they lack ideas because so And is now in

488
00:22:00,720 --> 00:22:02,919
Speaker 3: more of a play maker role, which is not his

489
00:22:03,040 --> 00:22:06,639
Speaker 3: best strong suit. Cain is stuck getting on the end

490
00:22:06,680 --> 00:22:08,119
Speaker 3: of chances because they need him to do that, but

491
00:22:08,160 --> 00:22:10,240
Speaker 3: he can't be the playmaker that he's very good at being.

492
00:22:10,680 --> 00:22:13,200
Speaker 3: So I think there's a bit of a disconnect here

493
00:22:13,320 --> 00:22:15,960
Speaker 3: and I think Spurs are overvalued.

494
00:22:16,080 --> 00:22:16,400
Speaker 4: I do.

495
00:22:16,840 --> 00:22:19,000
Speaker 3: I don't have in huge numbers edge here, but I

496
00:22:19,000 --> 00:22:21,679
Speaker 3: think from a stylistic point of view, Brighton will be

497
00:22:21,680 --> 00:22:23,600
Speaker 3: able to play through Spurs. Spurs are not a good

498
00:22:23,640 --> 00:22:26,560
Speaker 3: pressing team. Brighton will have plenty of time on the ball.

499
00:22:27,080 --> 00:22:30,199
Speaker 3: They're at home in this match. I would be surprised

500
00:22:30,200 --> 00:22:32,600
Speaker 3: if Spurs wont it. And look, it's not that crazy.

501
00:22:32,600 --> 00:22:35,280
Speaker 3: From a numbers point of view. Both teams have played

502
00:22:36,359 --> 00:22:39,560
Speaker 3: almost enough of a sample now to draw conclusions from.

503
00:22:40,160 --> 00:22:43,320
Speaker 3: Brighton have played Liverpool, so they both have played good

504
00:22:43,359 --> 00:22:47,040
Speaker 3: teams in this league. Brighton and Spurs, based on a

505
00:22:47,080 --> 00:22:50,199
Speaker 3: FIE rep's ext numbers, have the same expected goal difference

506
00:22:50,200 --> 00:22:52,880
Speaker 3: per ninety. So now I'm on the road and I'm

507
00:22:52,880 --> 00:22:55,359
Speaker 3: getting them as a slight underdog. John Obett, you know,

508
00:22:55,400 --> 00:23:01,040
Speaker 3: pick them. So I like Brighton and the Seagulls this morning.

509
00:23:02,119 --> 00:23:03,600
Speaker 2: Do you know the last team to be this short

510
00:23:03,800 --> 00:23:06,040
Speaker 2: traveling to Brighton in terms of a Big Six team.

511
00:23:06,119 --> 00:23:06,920
Speaker 3: Well Man United?

512
00:23:06,960 --> 00:23:08,040
Speaker 1: Probably it was that.

513
00:23:08,000 --> 00:23:10,159
Speaker 2: Lame duck, horrible Man United team at the end of

514
00:23:10,240 --> 00:23:12,160
Speaker 2: last season. Like, are you really going to sit here

515
00:23:12,200 --> 00:23:16,399
Speaker 2: and say that this Tottenham team and that team are comparable?

516
00:23:16,880 --> 00:23:18,360
Speaker 1: Brighton really that much.

517
00:23:18,160 --> 00:23:21,399
Speaker 2: Better than they were towards the end of last season. Truly,

518
00:23:21,560 --> 00:23:23,200
Speaker 2: I don't think so. I mean this line, I think

519
00:23:23,200 --> 00:23:26,960
Speaker 2: I'm playing better, like I'm not playing it. But I mean,

520
00:23:27,000 --> 00:23:28,720
Speaker 2: come on, Anthony, you're playing that.

521
00:23:29,640 --> 00:23:30,480
Speaker 4: He's mad, He's mad.

522
00:23:31,880 --> 00:23:33,399
Speaker 1: This is I would have been.

523
00:23:33,440 --> 00:23:34,960
Speaker 3: I was kind of hoping Spurs would win. I thought

524
00:23:34,960 --> 00:23:38,520
Speaker 3: may get a bay. It's a weird situational spot too

525
00:23:38,560 --> 00:23:41,160
Speaker 3: now because the Champions League kind of becomes a priority

526
00:23:41,200 --> 00:23:45,160
Speaker 3: next week against Frankfurt. It's funny, I think KOs look,

527
00:23:45,200 --> 00:23:48,320
Speaker 3: I think makes a huge difference, and it's one player

528
00:23:48,359 --> 00:23:49,960
Speaker 3: and yea yah YadA, YadA, YadA YadA.

529
00:23:50,040 --> 00:23:52,480
Speaker 1: But I'm not denying that Brighton Brighton.

530
00:23:52,160 --> 00:23:56,280
Speaker 3: Can cause his problems. And and look said that before

531
00:23:56,440 --> 00:23:58,240
Speaker 3: you look at our field tip from last year and

532
00:23:58,280 --> 00:23:59,760
Speaker 3: you compare a field tip to this year, it is

533
00:23:59,800 --> 00:24:03,840
Speaker 3: where so there are signs that there's problems.

534
00:24:03,960 --> 00:24:06,760
Speaker 4: You're mad at Spurs. You watch Brighton map, you take

535
00:24:06,800 --> 00:24:09,760
Speaker 4: Liverpool and get in an online draw.

536
00:24:09,840 --> 00:24:11,480
Speaker 2: This is this is just a tough spot for you.

537
00:24:12,119 --> 00:24:13,760
Speaker 2: I mean, listening to the spots not great. I mean

538
00:24:13,760 --> 00:24:15,919
Speaker 2: I'll give you the spots not great for Tottenham. Like

539
00:24:15,960 --> 00:24:20,359
Speaker 2: it's not a short traveling to Germany down to Brighton

540
00:24:20,520 --> 00:24:22,800
Speaker 2: and then yeah, another Champions League game next week, So yeah,

541
00:24:22,800 --> 00:24:23,600
Speaker 2: it's not a good spot.

542
00:24:23,640 --> 00:24:25,520
Speaker 1: But I mean, I mean, come on.

543
00:24:25,680 --> 00:24:28,560
Speaker 3: I already grabbed Spurs the minute FanDuel opened the line

544
00:24:28,560 --> 00:24:30,800
Speaker 3: for the Frankfurt home match, so like, look, this is

545
00:24:30,840 --> 00:24:34,119
Speaker 3: not like a I think Spurs are terrible. Now I

546
00:24:34,119 --> 00:24:35,639
Speaker 3: don't think that's the case. And like I said, I

547
00:24:35,640 --> 00:24:38,119
Speaker 3: bet them there was a bad opener. But my point

548
00:24:38,160 --> 00:24:41,040
Speaker 3: is that this is not a good spot. This is

549
00:24:41,080 --> 00:24:44,800
Speaker 3: not a good matchup for us, and it's a spot

550
00:24:44,840 --> 00:24:47,120
Speaker 3: that we really struggled in the spring against this team.

551
00:24:47,119 --> 00:24:50,040
Speaker 3: We couldn't create anything. Even when we were playing really

552
00:24:50,080 --> 00:24:52,760
Speaker 3: well at home. We were minus one eighty. We created

553
00:24:52,840 --> 00:24:55,760
Speaker 3: less than one expected goal. I think there's a problem

554
00:24:56,000 --> 00:24:57,880
Speaker 3: in this kind of matchup, and I like Brighton at home.

555
00:24:58,840 --> 00:25:00,880
Speaker 4: All right, you're telling to and go to your room.

556
00:25:01,160 --> 00:25:03,720
Speaker 4: I'm very mad at you. I'm not mad the way.

557
00:25:03,680 --> 00:25:05,840
Speaker 3: That I was. More I was. I was not that

558
00:25:05,920 --> 00:25:07,520
Speaker 3: upset by the Derby loss. I would be dead honest

559
00:25:07,520 --> 00:25:09,320
Speaker 3: with you. I was not that upset because I thought

560
00:25:09,320 --> 00:25:10,520
Speaker 3: they played okay.

561
00:25:11,040 --> 00:25:12,840
Speaker 4: But that's that's not what That's not what you said

562
00:25:12,840 --> 00:25:14,679
Speaker 4: when you were when you call me right after in

563
00:25:14,800 --> 00:25:19,399
Speaker 4: tears Palace plus one ten leads, leads plus two forty

564
00:25:19,720 --> 00:25:24,040
Speaker 4: the draws plus two fifty. Question, was this Palace defense

565
00:25:24,080 --> 00:25:26,919
Speaker 4: ever going to improve? That's really what you're asking.

566
00:25:26,960 --> 00:25:28,600
Speaker 3: I bet it con sided less than one next year

567
00:25:28,600 --> 00:25:28,960
Speaker 3: to Chelse.

568
00:25:29,000 --> 00:25:30,600
Speaker 4: You know, they give up two goals though. That's that

569
00:25:30,760 --> 00:25:32,320
Speaker 4: like at some point you just got to do both.

570
00:25:32,400 --> 00:25:34,359
Speaker 1: You got it, like if you're going to get results and.

571
00:25:36,000 --> 00:25:40,880
Speaker 3: Palace, and in this spot, I like Palace. I think

572
00:25:41,800 --> 00:25:42,399
Speaker 3: I'm gonna keep it.

573
00:25:42,600 --> 00:25:43,800
Speaker 4: Boy, I'm shocked by this.

574
00:25:43,920 --> 00:25:44,080
Speaker 1: Yep.

575
00:25:44,200 --> 00:25:47,520
Speaker 3: Go Look, I think I've got the better team who

576
00:25:47,600 --> 00:25:50,920
Speaker 3: has been dominated at home, and I get plus money

577
00:25:50,960 --> 00:25:54,080
Speaker 3: on them. That's enough for me. I am a fan

578
00:25:54,119 --> 00:25:56,560
Speaker 3: of Jesse Marsh, I am a fan of leads. I think,

579
00:25:56,600 --> 00:25:58,840
Speaker 3: you know, obviously last week's numbers are a little bit

580
00:25:58,840 --> 00:26:01,680
Speaker 3: skewed because you know, they got an early, somewhat early

581
00:26:01,720 --> 00:26:04,119
Speaker 3: red card and that kind of led them to be

582
00:26:04,240 --> 00:26:05,960
Speaker 3: defending for their lives for the end of the match,

583
00:26:06,280 --> 00:26:09,119
Speaker 3: So you can't apply too much into that. But I

584
00:26:09,359 --> 00:26:13,639
Speaker 3: don't think we can even use Palace's numbers still, and

585
00:26:13,680 --> 00:26:14,920
Speaker 3: that's going to be the case for like three or

586
00:26:14,920 --> 00:26:17,959
Speaker 3: four more matches until they play mediocre teams. The sample

587
00:26:18,000 --> 00:26:21,160
Speaker 3: of them against not very good teams. There's one game

588
00:26:21,880 --> 00:26:24,399
Speaker 3: and it's Villa. That's the worst team they've played, and

589
00:26:24,440 --> 00:26:27,119
Speaker 3: they dominated them. And I think this is a perfect

590
00:26:27,200 --> 00:26:29,879
Speaker 3: get right spot at home. Since Dara being out by

591
00:26:29,920 --> 00:26:32,160
Speaker 3: the way is a big loss for Leeds. I mean,

592
00:26:32,160 --> 00:26:35,560
Speaker 3: he's very lively, excellent in transition. It's where Palace could

593
00:26:35,560 --> 00:26:37,400
Speaker 3: get exploited. I don't think that will be the case

594
00:26:37,400 --> 00:26:40,320
Speaker 3: in this match. And I look, I like Leads a lot.

595
00:26:40,520 --> 00:26:42,959
Speaker 3: Their performances away from home have not been nearly as

596
00:26:43,000 --> 00:26:45,200
Speaker 3: good as they've been at home under Marsh, and I

597
00:26:45,240 --> 00:26:49,320
Speaker 3: think that is definitely something that I believe will be

598
00:26:49,359 --> 00:26:51,160
Speaker 3: a problem in this match, going up against the best

599
00:26:51,160 --> 00:26:52,920
Speaker 3: home you know, one of the best home waste splits

600
00:26:52,960 --> 00:26:55,440
Speaker 3: in that there is. I mean Leads have played three

601
00:26:55,480 --> 00:27:00,000
Speaker 3: away matches this year and they got handled by Brighton,

602
00:27:00,160 --> 00:27:03,800
Speaker 3: they got handled by Brentford, and they played Southampton about even.

603
00:27:04,600 --> 00:27:06,720
Speaker 3: I think Palace is much closer to the Brentford than

604
00:27:06,720 --> 00:27:09,439
Speaker 3: the Brightons of the world than I do Southampton. And

605
00:27:09,520 --> 00:27:11,800
Speaker 3: I think I'm only I'm getting plus money here. I'll

606
00:27:11,800 --> 00:27:14,120
Speaker 3: take it. I make Palace minus one oh five.

607
00:27:14,520 --> 00:27:16,800
Speaker 4: You're mad at Tottenham I'm just maybe I'm just mad at.

608
00:27:16,880 --> 00:27:19,600
Speaker 3: I'm not mad at Palace. They lost to Chelsea, I know,

609
00:27:19,760 --> 00:27:22,720
Speaker 3: but I thought like they lost eighty eight minute.

610
00:27:22,520 --> 00:27:25,240
Speaker 4: I know, nil, they were up one nil, they were

611
00:27:25,280 --> 00:27:27,480
Speaker 4: up two nil against Man City. The I'm just I'm

612
00:27:27,480 --> 00:27:29,879
Speaker 4: mad at them, that's all. That's that's what's skewing my

613
00:27:30,040 --> 00:27:32,560
Speaker 4: look here. Maybe I'll join them. I think I thought

614
00:27:32,560 --> 00:27:33,520
Speaker 4: I was gonna be passing on this.

615
00:27:33,560 --> 00:27:35,000
Speaker 3: You could make the point that the Aerra is like

616
00:27:35,040 --> 00:27:37,480
Speaker 3: mismanaging these leads against big teams and sitting a little

617
00:27:37,480 --> 00:27:39,159
Speaker 3: bit too deep and inviting too much pressure.

618
00:27:39,240 --> 00:27:39,400
Speaker 4: Right.

619
00:27:39,680 --> 00:27:42,120
Speaker 3: They blow a two nil lead to City, they blow

620
00:27:42,119 --> 00:27:44,520
Speaker 3: the lead to Liverpool, they blow the lead to Chelsea.

621
00:27:45,600 --> 00:27:48,680
Speaker 3: But the fact that they have leads against these really

622
00:27:48,680 --> 00:27:50,840
Speaker 3: good teams is more important to me than the fact

623
00:27:50,840 --> 00:27:53,240
Speaker 3: they keep blowing them. They dropped a ton of points

624
00:27:53,280 --> 00:27:57,480
Speaker 3: this year. Does anybody really think they're a bottom sixteen? No?

625
00:27:57,920 --> 00:28:00,520
Speaker 3: So positiveggreessions coming. I'm all in on all right.

626
00:28:01,200 --> 00:28:03,720
Speaker 4: I'll just trust you, Yeah, I just will.

627
00:28:04,119 --> 00:28:04,640
Speaker 3: I just match.

628
00:28:04,680 --> 00:28:05,160
Speaker 4: I love them.

629
00:28:05,240 --> 00:28:06,920
Speaker 3: I mean, we haven't even lost that much money on Palace.

630
00:28:07,200 --> 00:28:08,639
Speaker 4: Well you have, and I bet the money line so

631
00:28:09,480 --> 00:28:11,159
Speaker 4: and I'm used. I'm used to that kind of just

632
00:28:11,200 --> 00:28:13,840
Speaker 4: like swing on a team, speaking out of like one

633
00:28:13,880 --> 00:28:15,760
Speaker 4: of them was the biggest one for me last year

634
00:28:15,800 --> 00:28:17,840
Speaker 4: was west Ham, like they were winning at big numbers

635
00:28:18,359 --> 00:28:21,119
Speaker 4: all throughout, like the early part of our fall, and

636
00:28:21,400 --> 00:28:24,040
Speaker 4: then too the early winter, then plummeted. But let's talk

637
00:28:24,040 --> 00:28:27,720
Speaker 4: about those Hammers. Nine am on Sunday, west Ham minus

638
00:28:27,760 --> 00:28:30,800
Speaker 4: one thirty eight against Fulham plus three seventy five on

639
00:28:30,840 --> 00:28:32,760
Speaker 4: the road for a London Derby. The draw here is

640
00:28:32,800 --> 00:28:36,360
Speaker 4: plus to eighty. Fulham is going through it with injuries.

641
00:28:36,880 --> 00:28:44,080
Speaker 4: Alexander Mitrovich is doubtful, Anthony Robinson still doubtful. However, west

642
00:28:44,120 --> 00:28:46,440
Speaker 4: Ham isn't good, Like they're just not good right now.

643
00:28:46,720 --> 00:28:50,600
Speaker 4: So I'm not terribly concerned that you're getting a slightly

644
00:28:50,640 --> 00:28:54,920
Speaker 4: weakened Fullham team at this number. This is a good

645
00:28:55,000 --> 00:28:57,240
Speaker 4: number to go against west Ham. You're getting close to

646
00:28:57,280 --> 00:28:59,240
Speaker 4: four to one. I think when the lineups come out

647
00:28:59,240 --> 00:29:02,240
Speaker 4: this numbers might go up even further, like when everything's confirmed.

648
00:29:02,240 --> 00:29:04,440
Speaker 4: So you might want to just sit back if you're

649
00:29:05,120 --> 00:29:06,920
Speaker 4: into the pain like I am, and going to be

650
00:29:06,920 --> 00:29:10,960
Speaker 4: betting the Cottagers here, and I know that the defense

651
00:29:11,000 --> 00:29:13,560
Speaker 4: has been terrible and it's getting to be where Marco

652
00:29:13,640 --> 00:29:17,720
Speaker 4: Silva had everten. You know, just he sometimes just ignores

653
00:29:18,360 --> 00:29:20,680
Speaker 4: the other half of the game, which it's fun to

654
00:29:20,800 --> 00:29:23,000
Speaker 4: put the ball on the carpet and create scoring chances,

655
00:29:23,000 --> 00:29:25,360
Speaker 4: but you also need to defend a little bit there. Marco,

656
00:29:25,840 --> 00:29:29,360
Speaker 4: you gotta defend says this is this is taking stuff personally.

657
00:29:29,640 --> 00:29:30,520
Speaker 3: You are still like Marco.

658
00:29:30,640 --> 00:29:33,800
Speaker 4: They're typing Marco. I liked Marco. I think he's very handsome,

659
00:29:34,760 --> 00:29:37,920
Speaker 4: but he's a little stubborn. Fulham defense twentieth and non

660
00:29:37,960 --> 00:29:41,120
Speaker 4: penalty expectacles allowed and big scoring chances allowed. But here's

661
00:29:41,120 --> 00:29:44,320
Speaker 4: the good news, Anthony, here is the good news. David

662
00:29:44,360 --> 00:29:47,840
Speaker 4: Moyes is west Ham nineteenth in creating non penalty expectacles

663
00:29:47,880 --> 00:29:50,160
Speaker 4: eighteenth and creating big scoring chances. They're just not good

664
00:29:50,280 --> 00:29:51,800
Speaker 4: enough to exploit it right now.

665
00:29:52,120 --> 00:29:52,920
Speaker 1: I like Fulham.

666
00:29:53,120 --> 00:29:57,240
Speaker 4: I like Fulham on the money line, bj am I crazy, No.

667
00:29:57,360 --> 00:29:58,320
Speaker 1: Uh, you're not crazy.

668
00:29:58,400 --> 00:30:00,840
Speaker 2: I mean west Ham matches the he's in he averaging

669
00:30:00,880 --> 00:30:02,840
Speaker 2: one point seven non penalty expected goals.

670
00:30:02,880 --> 00:30:04,720
Speaker 1: That is a true David moisball.

671
00:30:04,800 --> 00:30:08,400
Speaker 2: But with Fulham, I mean they are they are painfully

672
00:30:08,600 --> 00:30:11,040
Speaker 2: to direct right now. I mean highest re x speeds,

673
00:30:11,040 --> 00:30:14,680
Speaker 2: second fewest passes per sequence. They have sixteen direct attacks

674
00:30:14,680 --> 00:30:16,280
Speaker 2: compared to just five build up attacks.

675
00:30:16,280 --> 00:30:17,520
Speaker 1: That's the lowest in the Premier League.

676
00:30:17,680 --> 00:30:21,280
Speaker 2: So the direct correlation of like actually creating consistently creating

677
00:30:21,280 --> 00:30:23,800
Speaker 2: big scoring chances, it's not good for Fulham. They have

678
00:30:23,880 --> 00:30:27,800
Speaker 2: taken fifty six shots from open play and created just

679
00:30:27,880 --> 00:30:32,480
Speaker 2: a little over five expected goals only Bournemouth is worse

680
00:30:32,520 --> 00:30:35,720
Speaker 2: than the Premier League. And also Anthony mentioned a few

681
00:30:36,040 --> 00:30:37,680
Speaker 2: last pot or a few pots ago. But they're really

682
00:30:37,760 --> 00:30:40,800
Speaker 2: reliant on Mitrovich scoring Like he's scored, he has five

683
00:30:40,840 --> 00:30:43,320
Speaker 2: of their nine expected goals on the season. Like he's questionable.

684
00:30:43,320 --> 00:30:44,600
Speaker 2: I don't know if he's actually going to play in

685
00:30:44,600 --> 00:30:47,720
Speaker 2: this one. So I have a hard time seeing how

686
00:30:47,720 --> 00:30:49,800
Speaker 2: they're going to create anything of value. Who against the

687
00:30:49,840 --> 00:30:52,080
Speaker 2: David Moyes defense that is third in the Premier League

688
00:30:52,080 --> 00:30:54,280
Speaker 2: and non penalty expected goals allow, they're only lying point

689
00:30:54,280 --> 00:30:57,120
Speaker 2: eight six per match, Like that's it's crazy when you

690
00:30:57,160 --> 00:31:00,760
Speaker 2: consider their defense is yeah, what they're bad. Their defense

691
00:31:00,840 --> 00:31:02,680
Speaker 2: was towards the said second half of last season, and

692
00:31:02,760 --> 00:31:05,640
Speaker 2: listen it does you know, being healthy obviously matters, Like

693
00:31:05,680 --> 00:31:08,600
Speaker 2: their defense has been healthy, but I mean last five

694
00:31:08,640 --> 00:31:11,800
Speaker 2: matches which is included two matches against Tottenham and Chelsea.

695
00:31:12,000 --> 00:31:15,360
Speaker 2: They haven't allowed any of those teams to create over

696
00:31:15,400 --> 00:31:17,560
Speaker 2: one expected goal, only three point two expect goles allowed

697
00:31:17,560 --> 00:31:20,600
Speaker 2: in their last five. So I mean Moys is really

698
00:31:20,640 --> 00:31:22,560
Speaker 2: just back to his old ways. He's just sitting deep

699
00:31:22,680 --> 00:31:24,760
Speaker 2: in a low block. They're dead last and pass per

700
00:31:24,760 --> 00:31:27,360
Speaker 2: defensive action. They're not coming out and pressing their fifteenth

701
00:31:27,360 --> 00:31:30,120
Speaker 2: in field field tilt. But hey, it's been successful, so

702
00:31:30,160 --> 00:31:32,440
Speaker 2: why change it, right, I mean, and then for Fulham

703
00:31:32,560 --> 00:31:35,960
Speaker 2: defines point eight six non penalty expect gos allowed. That's

704
00:31:36,000 --> 00:31:38,960
Speaker 2: pretty successful right now. Defensively at least. I'm not trying

705
00:31:38,960 --> 00:31:40,640
Speaker 2: to say we'll get to their offense because.

706
00:31:40,480 --> 00:31:42,880
Speaker 3: They're fifteenth in the table though, I mean, but.

707
00:31:43,000 --> 00:31:45,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean because the off can't score. The offense

708
00:31:45,560 --> 00:31:46,440
Speaker 1: has been really bad. Right.

709
00:31:46,760 --> 00:31:48,680
Speaker 2: If you can't score and you can't counter, then yeah,

710
00:31:48,720 --> 00:31:51,400
Speaker 2: that's bad. Defensively it's working, but you know that transition

711
00:31:51,480 --> 00:31:54,880
Speaker 2: of getting it forward going offensively really isn't working. So,

712
00:31:55,080 --> 00:31:57,760
Speaker 2: I mean, Fulham will have Paulinia back from yellow card suspension.

713
00:31:57,800 --> 00:31:58,880
Speaker 1: That's obviously massive for them.

714
00:31:58,920 --> 00:32:01,200
Speaker 2: I'd say he's out out of you know that one

715
00:32:01,240 --> 00:32:04,960
Speaker 2: striker at where Manchester City. I'd say that Pauling is

716
00:32:04,960 --> 00:32:06,200
Speaker 2: probably the signing of the summer.

717
00:32:06,600 --> 00:32:08,960
Speaker 4: Man You sound like someone who hasn't watch Connor Cody

718
00:32:08,960 --> 00:32:10,040
Speaker 4: play this season.

719
00:32:10,120 --> 00:32:11,920
Speaker 3: Holland doesn't even count the signing of the summer.

720
00:32:12,600 --> 00:32:15,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, but anyway, I mean West Ham's created four big

721
00:32:15,120 --> 00:32:18,160
Speaker 2: scoring chants on the season, like they're painfully bad offensively.

722
00:32:18,240 --> 00:32:21,000
Speaker 1: So both teams to score no as project? Is that

723
00:32:21,240 --> 00:32:23,120
Speaker 1: plus one ten right now? Like that's crazy?

724
00:32:23,160 --> 00:32:26,200
Speaker 2: That's plus money with how bad both of these offenses are.

725
00:32:26,280 --> 00:32:29,600
Speaker 2: So let's keep the both teams to score no train rolling.

726
00:32:29,800 --> 00:32:31,800
Speaker 2: Give me that at plus one ten.

727
00:32:32,080 --> 00:32:34,200
Speaker 4: Anthony, If I bet Crystal Palace, will you bet following

728
00:32:34,240 --> 00:32:34,480
Speaker 4: with me?

729
00:32:35,400 --> 00:32:35,480
Speaker 3: No?

730
00:32:36,240 --> 00:32:38,080
Speaker 4: All right, let's talk about Everett and Manchester unit.

731
00:32:38,120 --> 00:32:39,400
Speaker 2: Do you know what time this game's kicking off on

732
00:32:39,440 --> 00:32:44,760
Speaker 2: Sunday ten thirty Central time two pm Eastern Time?

733
00:32:45,360 --> 00:32:45,600
Speaker 1: Seven?

734
00:32:45,680 --> 00:32:49,000
Speaker 4: Really it's a seven pm kickoff over in England. Oh,

735
00:32:49,040 --> 00:32:52,560
Speaker 4: because it's the BT Sport game of the of the

736
00:32:52,600 --> 00:32:56,080
Speaker 4: week and the year that's usually that slot is twelve

737
00:32:56,200 --> 00:32:59,760
Speaker 4: thirty in England. But that would have not given Manchester

738
00:33:00,600 --> 00:33:03,920
Speaker 4: the requisite like forty eight hours from their Europa League match,

739
00:33:03,960 --> 00:33:05,720
Speaker 4: so they had to move it to the other open

740
00:33:05,760 --> 00:33:08,400
Speaker 4: slot which is two pm so for US two pm

741
00:33:08,400 --> 00:33:12,040
Speaker 4: Eastern so seven pm over there. So a rare Sunday

742
00:33:12,080 --> 00:33:15,640
Speaker 4: night football match Everton plus two seventy five under the

743
00:33:15,720 --> 00:33:18,480
Speaker 4: lights at Goodison Park United minus one oh six. The

744
00:33:18,560 --> 00:33:20,600
Speaker 4: draw here is two plus two forty at Bet three

745
00:33:20,600 --> 00:33:24,320
Speaker 4: six five oh Frank Lampard's toffees Man seven match on

746
00:33:24,360 --> 00:33:26,600
Speaker 4: beaten streak. You know who has allowed the fewest goals

747
00:33:26,640 --> 00:33:29,560
Speaker 4: in the Premier League this season, that's Frank Lampard's toffees Man.

748
00:33:30,000 --> 00:33:31,960
Speaker 4: They haven't allowed more than a goal since they played

749
00:33:31,960 --> 00:33:34,520
Speaker 4: Aston Villa, and they've only allowed more than one goal

750
00:33:34,560 --> 00:33:37,920
Speaker 4: in one match this season. And I'm not too concerned

751
00:33:37,960 --> 00:33:41,400
Speaker 4: about the defensive regression because they have regression proof goalkeeper

752
00:33:41,440 --> 00:33:45,200
Speaker 4: Jordan Pickford, the center back pairing of Cody and Tarkowsky,

753
00:33:45,280 --> 00:33:48,520
Speaker 4: like they're just really good at defending their box and

754
00:33:48,560 --> 00:33:50,120
Speaker 4: with gone in front of them. Like this is a

755
00:33:50,160 --> 00:33:53,280
Speaker 4: team that's probably going to beat their expected goals against

756
00:33:53,360 --> 00:33:55,800
Speaker 4: numbers for the season, just when you think about their

757
00:33:55,840 --> 00:33:58,920
Speaker 4: personnel and don't I'm not too concerned about the offense

758
00:33:59,200 --> 00:34:02,040
Speaker 4: against this man defense that recks sixteenth and non penalty

759
00:34:02,040 --> 00:34:04,880
Speaker 4: expected goals for ninety sixteenth and shots allowed for ninety

760
00:34:04,880 --> 00:34:07,440
Speaker 4: and twelfth and big scoring chances. They got picked apart

761
00:34:07,480 --> 00:34:09,439
Speaker 4: by a Manchester City team just a little bit. They're

762
00:34:09,480 --> 00:34:12,080
Speaker 4: just a little bit better than Everton. I think we

763
00:34:12,080 --> 00:34:15,840
Speaker 4: could all agree on that. And it's been weeks and

764
00:34:15,880 --> 00:34:18,560
Speaker 4: weeks of me beating this drum and saying, you guys

765
00:34:18,600 --> 00:34:21,080
Speaker 4: are missing out. Get on the bandwagon. It's coming. This

766
00:34:21,120 --> 00:34:23,600
Speaker 4: scene's going to pay off, and they've paid off. And

767
00:34:23,640 --> 00:34:26,799
Speaker 4: now all of a sudden, guess who's joining the party?

768
00:34:26,840 --> 00:34:29,960
Speaker 4: Bj and Anthony Anthony on Everton first time in what

769
00:34:30,120 --> 00:34:30,760
Speaker 4: year and a half.

770
00:34:30,960 --> 00:34:32,839
Speaker 3: I'd have to go back and look. I definitely bet

771
00:34:32,920 --> 00:34:35,800
Speaker 3: a couple of Everton unders last year. I don't remember

772
00:34:35,800 --> 00:34:39,439
Speaker 3: betting on Everton. But I think that the stylistic match

773
00:34:39,520 --> 00:34:42,920
Speaker 3: up here is that Everton will successfully be able to

774
00:34:42,960 --> 00:34:47,000
Speaker 3: sit deep and counterteck Man United. And I think that

775
00:34:47,280 --> 00:34:50,719
Speaker 3: United thrives in certain situations when they can, when they can,

776
00:34:51,080 --> 00:34:54,240
Speaker 3: you know, win the ball and run into space behind.

777
00:34:54,719 --> 00:34:57,640
Speaker 3: They use Sancho and Antony, but un didn't have a

778
00:34:57,680 --> 00:35:03,000
Speaker 3: striker issue right now with the injuries situation that's concerning United,

779
00:35:03,080 --> 00:35:05,799
Speaker 3: do not do enough for me to dominate possession and

780
00:35:05,840 --> 00:35:09,359
Speaker 3: dominate games against lower table sides, especially on the road.

781
00:35:09,920 --> 00:35:12,160
Speaker 3: That creates a situation where I'm a bit concerned for

782
00:35:12,200 --> 00:35:15,960
Speaker 3: them here in the spot. It's also a weird situation

783
00:35:16,239 --> 00:35:20,480
Speaker 3: for them with the Europa League travel right before then

784
00:35:20,520 --> 00:35:22,680
Speaker 3: They're going to have to travel up to or over

785
00:35:22,719 --> 00:35:26,080
Speaker 3: to Everton. So it's not a great situational spot. It's

786
00:35:26,120 --> 00:35:28,520
Speaker 3: not a great number situation either. I mean, look at

787
00:35:28,600 --> 00:35:31,480
Speaker 3: United away from home this season. They went to Southampton

788
00:35:31,520 --> 00:35:34,440
Speaker 3: and won one nil, but they lost expected goals. They

789
00:35:34,440 --> 00:35:37,600
Speaker 3: went to Lester and one to one nil, but expected

790
00:35:37,600 --> 00:35:40,000
Speaker 3: goals were one point one two point six. We know

791
00:35:40,040 --> 00:35:44,640
Speaker 3: about Lester not that inspiring performance, you know in hindsight.

792
00:35:45,440 --> 00:35:48,040
Speaker 3: And then they went to Sheriff and won the expected

793
00:35:48,040 --> 00:35:51,479
Speaker 3: goals by one to know when good performance, but again

794
00:35:51,520 --> 00:35:56,200
Speaker 3: it's Sheriff. I think that there are still concerns and

795
00:35:56,239 --> 00:35:58,360
Speaker 3: I don't think everything is all right at man United.

796
00:35:58,920 --> 00:35:59,319
Speaker 4: What so?

797
00:35:59,360 --> 00:36:01,520
Speaker 3: I like Everton plus a half and BJ will tell

798
00:36:01,560 --> 00:36:04,640
Speaker 3: you that the worst team that's ever existed, and I disagree, but.

799
00:36:04,960 --> 00:36:07,560
Speaker 2: I'm just surprised you're like kind of seeing the light here, Anthony,

800
00:36:07,640 --> 00:36:08,920
Speaker 2: that maybe the Manchester United.

801
00:36:08,880 --> 00:36:11,359
Speaker 4: Everyone see the light here in this match finally.

802
00:36:11,239 --> 00:36:13,239
Speaker 3: Look, I think there's the I mean, look, you you

803
00:36:13,320 --> 00:36:14,960
Speaker 3: bet Arsenal against him? I was, I was out on

804
00:36:14,960 --> 00:36:16,560
Speaker 3: that trap. I think that was a bad matchup. But

805
00:36:16,560 --> 00:36:18,520
Speaker 3: I think there are certain matchups that United will be

806
00:36:18,560 --> 00:36:20,719
Speaker 3: good in. But there there are some that I don't

807
00:36:20,760 --> 00:36:23,040
Speaker 3: want any part of them. And this is one where

808
00:36:23,040 --> 00:36:24,920
Speaker 3: I want no part of man even. I like the

809
00:36:24,920 --> 00:36:27,279
Speaker 3: only thing it's just on a Yeah, it's kind of

810
00:36:27,280 --> 00:36:28,680
Speaker 3: where we're I know United.

811
00:36:28,440 --> 00:36:29,760
Speaker 1: Right, yeah exactly.

812
00:36:29,880 --> 00:36:32,040
Speaker 2: I mean this is I mean credit to Eric ten

813
00:36:32,080 --> 00:36:34,680
Speaker 2: Hank for actually having to, you know, being able to

814
00:36:34,760 --> 00:36:38,200
Speaker 2: develop a different style style for Manchester United because he've

815
00:36:38,320 --> 00:36:41,480
Speaker 2: realized that his defensive midfielders and center backs suck so

816
00:36:41,520 --> 00:36:44,399
Speaker 2: that he needs to essentially play a low defensive line.

817
00:36:44,400 --> 00:36:47,799
Speaker 2: I mean United is playing the lowest defensive line in

818
00:36:47,840 --> 00:36:49,160
Speaker 2: the entire Premier League right now.

819
00:36:49,280 --> 00:36:50,680
Speaker 1: Like that's crazy to think about.

820
00:36:50,920 --> 00:36:54,640
Speaker 3: Like they've played stopped kicking it short exactly, They're.

821
00:36:54,360 --> 00:36:57,680
Speaker 2: Just playing it long like they've they've they've turned into Burnley, Michael,

822
00:36:57,840 --> 00:36:59,880
Speaker 2: Like the United is just now. I mean, they probably

823
00:37:00,000 --> 00:37:01,839
Speaker 2: I hired Sean Ditch if they're going to play this way.

824
00:37:02,920 --> 00:37:05,960
Speaker 2: But hey, listen, Michael, I mean Dominie Calvert Lewin has

825
00:37:05,960 --> 00:37:08,239
Speaker 2: been upgraded to questionable for this match, so we might

826
00:37:09,200 --> 00:37:13,360
Speaker 2: finally we might find No, we might finally see the

827
00:37:13,440 --> 00:37:16,120
Speaker 2: striking duo of Moupi and Dominic Coverline, which I know

828
00:37:16,200 --> 00:37:19,160
Speaker 2: everybody has been waiting for to see, to really unlock

829
00:37:19,239 --> 00:37:22,359
Speaker 2: this Everton attack. But I mean no, I mean even

830
00:37:22,440 --> 00:37:25,719
Speaker 2: last year Everton really, I mean they beat United at

831
00:37:25,719 --> 00:37:28,000
Speaker 2: Goodison Park, like they held them under one expected goal,

832
00:37:28,040 --> 00:37:29,760
Speaker 2: and then they did the same thing at Old Trafford

833
00:37:29,760 --> 00:37:33,320
Speaker 2: when they drew them one one. And I mean United

834
00:37:33,480 --> 00:37:35,799
Speaker 2: they're allowing a one point six to eight expected threat

835
00:37:35,840 --> 00:37:38,400
Speaker 2: per ninety minutes, like only Everton, Pornmouth and Crystal Palace

836
00:37:38,440 --> 00:37:40,480
Speaker 2: have a higher expected threat a lot like teams are

837
00:37:40,520 --> 00:37:44,520
Speaker 2: just getting inside the final third and creating chances against United,

838
00:37:44,640 --> 00:37:47,400
Speaker 2: And yeah they're playing, they're sitting deep and you know,

839
00:37:47,520 --> 00:37:50,920
Speaker 2: the city match, we can't really you know, there are

840
00:37:50,920 --> 00:37:52,879
Speaker 2: things we can take away from that like that. Yeah,

841
00:37:53,080 --> 00:37:55,040
Speaker 2: United still have a lot of problems to go way

842
00:37:55,080 --> 00:37:57,759
Speaker 2: beyond Harry maguire. Varone is out for this match as well,

843
00:37:57,800 --> 00:38:00,239
Speaker 2: so it's gonna be Linda Loof and los Angele Martinez back.

844
00:38:00,280 --> 00:38:02,800
Speaker 1: They're not not a great center back pairing.

845
00:38:02,840 --> 00:38:07,239
Speaker 4: It's Jana versus and United sixteenth.

846
00:38:07,120 --> 00:38:10,120
Speaker 2: Nine sixteenth and expected goals allowed like this defense is

847
00:38:10,120 --> 00:38:13,440
Speaker 2: still really really bad. So yeah, I'm on ever since

848
00:38:13,440 --> 00:38:15,160
Speaker 2: plus half a goal like the trip to the Cyprus

849
00:38:15,239 --> 00:38:17,520
Speaker 2: in the middle of the week like on Thursday is

850
00:38:18,239 --> 00:38:20,920
Speaker 2: challenging because United lost to Sociate Dad and they have

851
00:38:20,960 --> 00:38:23,200
Speaker 2: to take this match seriously, like they can't just go

852
00:38:23,239 --> 00:38:25,279
Speaker 2: in and walk on and try to walk over to

853
00:38:25,360 --> 00:38:27,799
Speaker 2: Kosia like they have to take it seriously. So yeah,

854
00:38:27,920 --> 00:38:29,759
Speaker 2: give me the Tope's plus half a goal in this one.

855
00:38:29,800 --> 00:38:31,600
Speaker 2: I think that makes it what nine for nine on

856
00:38:31,719 --> 00:38:35,000
Speaker 2: United fades? Anthony, So I lost count?

857
00:38:35,120 --> 00:38:35,959
Speaker 3: Are you up on those?

858
00:38:36,160 --> 00:38:38,920
Speaker 1: I feel like I don't, probably not, but I'll keep

859
00:38:38,960 --> 00:38:39,319
Speaker 1: doing it.

860
00:38:39,280 --> 00:38:42,080
Speaker 4: And tell it to the beginning of the season was

861
00:38:42,120 --> 00:38:44,280
Speaker 4: just it was free money, no matter if you're betting

862
00:38:44,280 --> 00:38:46,400
Speaker 4: on her against United, if you're listening to this podcast.

863
00:38:46,440 --> 00:38:49,160
Speaker 4: But yeah, I think this is This is just a

864
00:38:49,200 --> 00:38:52,160
Speaker 4: banger of a spot for Frank Lampard's toffees and he's

865
00:38:52,160 --> 00:38:55,400
Speaker 4: got them going in the right direction. It feels good

866
00:38:56,000 --> 00:38:58,240
Speaker 4: right now. He guess who's back on Monday Night Football

867
00:38:58,360 --> 00:39:03,280
Speaker 4: nin even Forrest plus two thirty s Aston Villa plus

868
00:39:03,320 --> 00:39:04,640
Speaker 4: one twenty on the road.

869
00:39:04,880 --> 00:39:07,120
Speaker 3: How do they keep getting all these island matches. I'm

870
00:39:07,120 --> 00:39:09,360
Speaker 3: like almost certain they have the Friday match the following

871
00:39:09,360 --> 00:39:09,919
Speaker 3: week as well.

872
00:39:10,120 --> 00:39:15,120
Speaker 4: You know what's incredible since the end of Steve Cooper, No,

873
00:39:15,400 --> 00:39:18,440
Speaker 4: because when they go down, he's he's the guy. He's

874
00:39:18,480 --> 00:39:19,880
Speaker 4: the guy who's gonna have to bring him back up.

875
00:39:20,600 --> 00:39:24,200
Speaker 4: Here's the problem. I'm gonna bet Noting for this match.

876
00:39:24,560 --> 00:39:29,080
Speaker 4: That's the Let me think about the match up here, like,

877
00:39:29,200 --> 00:39:33,320
Speaker 4: just think about it, simply. What's Monting For's biggest problem

878
00:39:33,360 --> 00:39:36,120
Speaker 4: on the field, Like, I'm not talking about the absolutely

879
00:39:36,160 --> 00:39:39,719
Speaker 4: sociopathic recruiting. I'm talking about the on field, and that's

880
00:39:39,760 --> 00:39:43,239
Speaker 4: their defense. Wouldn't stop Dulich Hamlet from scoring right now.

881
00:39:43,280 --> 00:39:45,879
Speaker 4: But I don't have to worry about that because aston

882
00:39:45,920 --> 00:39:49,480
Speaker 4: Villa's attack might be worse than Dulich Hamlet's attack. It's

883
00:39:49,520 --> 00:39:53,840
Speaker 4: so bad, so like you're taking a terrible defense against

884
00:39:53,840 --> 00:39:58,680
Speaker 4: a pragmatic, lumbering offense. And this is the spot there

885
00:39:58,719 --> 00:40:02,760
Speaker 4: at home. It's huge game for them. I like Forrest,

886
00:40:02,840 --> 00:40:06,799
Speaker 4: it sucks, but I the House of Pain, it's the

887
00:40:06,840 --> 00:40:10,960
Speaker 4: city ground. I'll be on the tricky trees here, Anthony,

888
00:40:11,160 --> 00:40:12,919
Speaker 4: look It's very hard for me to do this because

889
00:40:12,960 --> 00:40:14,960
Speaker 4: of what I've said about Villa and my positions on

890
00:40:15,000 --> 00:40:18,320
Speaker 4: them and my belief in them.

891
00:40:18,840 --> 00:40:20,640
Speaker 3: But I do show a little bit of value on

892
00:40:20,680 --> 00:40:24,040
Speaker 3: Doddingham Forrest at home. I've actually bumped me in the

893
00:40:24,120 --> 00:40:27,560
Speaker 3: last two weeks, and I know that's hard to say

894
00:40:27,600 --> 00:40:29,400
Speaker 3: after they lost to Leicester, but I actually thought they

895
00:40:29,400 --> 00:40:31,160
Speaker 3: did some things well in that match. I thought they

896
00:40:31,800 --> 00:40:35,719
Speaker 3: went to Lester and played about even unexpected goals and sometimes,

897
00:40:35,840 --> 00:40:38,440
Speaker 3: you know, we were in a meeting BJ during this game.

898
00:40:38,960 --> 00:40:41,480
Speaker 3: Tywo hits the post on a one on one chance

899
00:40:42,000 --> 00:40:44,920
Speaker 3: and then Leicester comes right down the other end deflected

900
00:40:44,920 --> 00:40:46,520
Speaker 3: goal from twenty yards.

901
00:40:46,760 --> 00:40:50,279
Speaker 1: And Lyndardy whipped and then it was a deflected goal, right, So.

902
00:40:51,160 --> 00:40:54,600
Speaker 3: It's look like Flukes happened in one soccer match. We

903
00:40:54,600 --> 00:40:59,960
Speaker 3: cannot overreact one soccer match. Cannot overreact to Forrest's defense,

904
00:41:00,040 --> 00:41:02,719
Speaker 3: which has been terrible but has been at least presentable

905
00:41:02,760 --> 00:41:05,200
Speaker 3: at home somewhat. I don't know, it's hard to make

906
00:41:05,200 --> 00:41:07,479
Speaker 3: the case, but really it's more of a should Villa

907
00:41:07,560 --> 00:41:09,840
Speaker 3: be a half goal favorite on the road against anybody?

908
00:41:09,920 --> 00:41:12,080
Speaker 3: Right now? Are you much closer?

909
00:41:12,160 --> 00:41:12,239
Speaker 1: No?

910
00:41:13,000 --> 00:41:16,080
Speaker 3: What I am going to have to build the courage

911
00:41:16,120 --> 00:41:17,560
Speaker 3: again to bet this team.

912
00:41:18,000 --> 00:41:19,800
Speaker 4: It's good. That's why it's good that it's a Monday

913
00:41:19,880 --> 00:41:22,400
Speaker 4: night game. You know you got bad because I'm not

914
00:41:22,680 --> 00:41:24,480
Speaker 4: likely to bet it. No, it's good.

915
00:41:24,520 --> 00:41:26,319
Speaker 3: It was on Saturday at ten. I could just say,

916
00:41:26,360 --> 00:41:28,120
Speaker 3: I'm this matchup.

917
00:41:28,360 --> 00:41:30,759
Speaker 4: I'm never going to you're gonna have I'm gonna turn

918
00:41:30,800 --> 00:41:34,360
Speaker 4: off the goal alerts for this game day Monday night,

919
00:41:34,400 --> 00:41:36,240
Speaker 4: gonna have all day and there's gonna be one singular

920
00:41:36,280 --> 00:41:39,520
Speaker 4: thing on your mind, and that's I'm betting Nonningham Forrest today,

921
00:41:40,239 --> 00:41:41,840
Speaker 4: and so is my friend b J Cunningham.

922
00:41:42,719 --> 00:41:44,479
Speaker 1: Yeah. I do actually show well. But edge of Notting

923
00:41:44,520 --> 00:41:46,080
Speaker 1: and Forest are just kind of crazy to say. I

924
00:41:46,120 --> 00:41:49,799
Speaker 1: mean they were, I mean they.

925
00:41:48,920 --> 00:41:51,279
Speaker 2: Won the expected goals battle against Leicester, which is kind

926
00:41:51,280 --> 00:41:55,480
Speaker 2: of crazy to say. Again, I'll keep holding on to

927
00:41:55,600 --> 00:41:59,759
Speaker 2: the fact and maybe I'll just care not play. I know,

928
00:42:00,000 --> 00:42:02,239
Speaker 2: well they're not like their defense is the same day.

929
00:42:03,120 --> 00:42:06,520
Speaker 4: They just it's like a hostage situation. It's incredibly strange.

930
00:42:07,320 --> 00:42:09,480
Speaker 2: I mean, wait, look, listen when Rafa Benitez gets in

931
00:42:09,480 --> 00:42:12,719
Speaker 2: and turns this team and he's gonna sell them. Player

932
00:42:12,760 --> 00:42:15,640
Speaker 2: who's ever played for I know, I mean this is

933
00:42:15,760 --> 00:42:16,200
Speaker 2: what happens.

934
00:42:16,120 --> 00:42:18,399
Speaker 4: Is going to bring in Andros Townsend, He's gonna bring

935
00:42:18,400 --> 00:42:20,720
Speaker 4: in ron Don, He's going to bring in his guys.

936
00:42:21,400 --> 00:42:23,440
Speaker 2: This is what happens when you just decide I'm going

937
00:42:23,520 --> 00:42:25,279
Speaker 2: to buy nineteen players. I don't really care if they

938
00:42:25,280 --> 00:42:27,240
Speaker 2: fit the system. I'm just going to buy nineteen players

939
00:42:27,280 --> 00:42:30,360
Speaker 2: that we have the talent. Listen, Forrest does have some talent.

940
00:42:30,480 --> 00:42:32,680
Speaker 2: Like it's not like that these players they bought were bad,

941
00:42:32,880 --> 00:42:38,399
Speaker 2: Like Tywo's good. Lindagard still has something in there. But yeah,

942
00:42:38,520 --> 00:42:41,919
Speaker 2: Morgan gets the promising young talent. Yeah, Freuler like these

943
00:42:42,200 --> 00:42:44,680
Speaker 2: they have some talent, and I'm going to keep holding

944
00:42:44,680 --> 00:42:46,719
Speaker 2: on to that fact and probably until they get relegated

945
00:42:47,080 --> 00:42:49,480
Speaker 2: that hey, they're going to turn the ship around at

946
00:42:49,480 --> 00:42:51,440
Speaker 2: some point because these players are actually to get to

947
00:42:51,480 --> 00:42:53,640
Speaker 2: know each other and learn to play in the system.

948
00:42:53,840 --> 00:42:56,880
Speaker 2: And maybe this is maybe this situation happens, you know

949
00:42:57,040 --> 00:42:59,560
Speaker 2: on Monday, I mean Villa. Yeah, they created over to

950
00:42:59,640 --> 00:43:01,960
Speaker 2: expecting goals against Leeds, but a lot of it came

951
00:43:01,960 --> 00:43:04,520
Speaker 2: after the red cards, so I don't know.

952
00:43:04,640 --> 00:43:06,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'll be on Noningham Forest. It'll be fun.

953
00:43:07,400 --> 00:43:09,160
Speaker 3: Yeah, last week was my first Forest bet.

954
00:43:09,440 --> 00:43:10,240
Speaker 4: How was the experience.

955
00:43:10,600 --> 00:43:12,719
Speaker 1: I convinced Antony at the final minute to bet it.

956
00:43:12,760 --> 00:43:15,680
Speaker 3: He did, and the experience was terrible, to be completely honest.

957
00:43:15,719 --> 00:43:20,120
Speaker 3: But you know my Forest relegation ticket that is looking good.

958
00:43:20,320 --> 00:43:22,880
Speaker 4: So yeah, it was a double whammy for me on

959
00:43:22,960 --> 00:43:26,279
Speaker 4: Monday when they ruined my lister the last at Christmas.

960
00:43:26,719 --> 00:43:29,160
Speaker 4: All right, so that wraps up the Premier League. Let's

961
00:43:29,200 --> 00:43:32,879
Speaker 4: talk about some European leagues. Our best bets will start

962
00:43:32,920 --> 00:43:35,040
Speaker 4: in Germany. But before we get there, a reminder that

963
00:43:35,080 --> 00:43:37,400
Speaker 4: Wonder Goal is presented by Bet three six five, the

964
00:43:37,440 --> 00:43:40,520
Speaker 4: world's favorite sportsbook brand. Sign up with promo code action

965
00:43:40,920 --> 00:43:43,239
Speaker 4: to get BET three six fives exclusive sign up offer

966
00:43:43,239 --> 00:43:46,000
Speaker 4: in New Jersey and Colorado. Bet one dollar on any game,

967
00:43:46,680 --> 00:43:50,719
Speaker 4: get two hundred free Bundesliga their classicer. We had someone

968
00:43:50,719 --> 00:43:52,600
Speaker 4: reach out to us, a listener who I thank very

969
00:43:52,680 --> 00:43:55,399
Speaker 4: much for listening and reaching out, saying that they don't

970
00:43:55,400 --> 00:43:57,960
Speaker 4: call it their classicer in Germany. It's just that's kind

971
00:43:57,960 --> 00:44:00,880
Speaker 4: of a vernacular. No no, But I'm still going to

972
00:44:00,880 --> 00:44:03,279
Speaker 4: call it their classicer because that's We're American and we

973
00:44:03,320 --> 00:44:06,160
Speaker 4: butcher these things, just like how you know, BJ says

974
00:44:06,200 --> 00:44:09,680
Speaker 4: Belgrade and I can't pronounce like half the team's names

975
00:44:09,840 --> 00:44:11,920
Speaker 4: in a lot of these leagues. We apologize for. That

976
00:44:12,320 --> 00:44:14,960
Speaker 4: doesn't make us less of soccer fans, and once again

977
00:44:15,000 --> 00:44:17,399
Speaker 4: we do thank you for reaching out. Dortmun plus three

978
00:44:17,440 --> 00:44:20,279
Speaker 4: twenty at home hosting Byron Munich minus one fifty the

979
00:44:20,360 --> 00:44:25,000
Speaker 4: draws plus three seventy five. We just talked about the

980
00:44:25,040 --> 00:44:29,400
Speaker 4: pain of betting Nigham Forest. This one's going to come

981
00:44:29,440 --> 00:44:32,719
Speaker 4: close for you too, gentlemen. I think, I mean, I know,

982
00:44:32,760 --> 00:44:36,080
Speaker 4: Dortmund's not Dortmund anymore in terms of like their back

983
00:44:36,120 --> 00:44:39,640
Speaker 4: and forth seesaw battles, but an under here in a

984
00:44:39,680 --> 00:44:41,320
Speaker 4: Byron Dortmund match, Anthony.

985
00:44:42,920 --> 00:44:47,359
Speaker 3: You know, every time this match gets played, I show

986
00:44:47,440 --> 00:44:50,280
Speaker 3: value on the under, but it's very rare. I actually

987
00:44:50,320 --> 00:44:52,800
Speaker 3: bet it, and you know, you go back to the

988
00:44:52,840 --> 00:44:55,560
Speaker 3: last two seasons now, there have been four games that

989
00:44:55,560 --> 00:44:57,840
Speaker 3: they've played against one another. I have only bet the

990
00:44:57,920 --> 00:44:59,959
Speaker 3: under once and it was because it got to four

991
00:45:00,719 --> 00:45:03,080
Speaker 3: and it was the end of last season in April,

992
00:45:03,440 --> 00:45:05,040
Speaker 3: and I was like, all right, four is just too much.

993
00:45:05,040 --> 00:45:06,680
Speaker 3: It ended three to one. There was three point two

994
00:45:06,680 --> 00:45:09,520
Speaker 3: expected goals, there was a penalty in there, but I pushed.

995
00:45:09,600 --> 00:45:13,160
Speaker 3: But the reality here is that this Dortmund team is

996
00:45:13,200 --> 00:45:17,200
Speaker 3: just not the same and they I also normally looked

997
00:45:17,200 --> 00:45:19,680
Speaker 3: to play Byron in this match. Normally, Byron is actually

998
00:45:19,719 --> 00:45:24,400
Speaker 3: undervalued for me because I think the market prices these

999
00:45:24,440 --> 00:45:26,960
Speaker 3: two teams closer than they actually are on a consistent basis.

1000
00:45:26,960 --> 00:45:30,319
Speaker 3: I remember betting Byron in the first match. But from

1001
00:45:30,360 --> 00:45:33,640
Speaker 3: a stylistic point of view, this dormant attack looks very

1002
00:45:33,680 --> 00:45:37,759
Speaker 3: lost when they're not playing a team called Saverne. They

1003
00:45:38,680 --> 00:45:41,160
Speaker 3: did absolutely nothing for the majority of the first half

1004
00:45:41,160 --> 00:45:44,600
Speaker 3: against COLMB last week on the road. That's a pretty

1005
00:45:44,600 --> 00:45:46,520
Speaker 3: big red flag going up against Byron. You look at

1006
00:45:46,520 --> 00:45:49,080
Speaker 3: the underlying numbers for this Dortmund team and we've talked

1007
00:45:49,080 --> 00:45:52,760
Speaker 3: about the regression, but they're getting almost nothing from Tony

1008
00:45:52,760 --> 00:45:55,480
Speaker 3: Madest and he was somebody who finished well above their

1009
00:45:55,560 --> 00:45:59,800
Speaker 3: XG last season. He has fourteen shots in seven matches.

1010
00:46:00,239 --> 00:46:03,680
Speaker 3: That's really bad for the supposed second best team. Jude

1011
00:46:03,680 --> 00:46:08,200
Speaker 3: Bellingham is getting more shots than Anthony Madest. Marco Royce

1012
00:46:08,320 --> 00:46:12,600
Speaker 3: is their third leading shot getter. He's out their fourth

1013
00:46:12,600 --> 00:46:18,960
Speaker 3: shot person, Marius wolf blod Bock reject. So think about

1014
00:46:19,280 --> 00:46:23,359
Speaker 3: all of the issues that that.

1015
00:46:22,560 --> 00:46:24,800
Speaker 1: Will still probably out for this match, right.

1016
00:46:25,320 --> 00:46:28,480
Speaker 3: Think about all the you know, problems with that when

1017
00:46:28,480 --> 00:46:30,400
Speaker 3: you think about it, and you know Donielle Malin is

1018
00:46:30,480 --> 00:46:33,160
Speaker 3: up there too, somebody who's not getting regular minutes right now.

1019
00:46:33,200 --> 00:46:35,279
Speaker 3: So where are the shots coming from that are going

1020
00:46:35,320 --> 00:46:37,680
Speaker 3: to trouble this Byron team. They're not there. I think

1021
00:46:37,719 --> 00:46:41,480
Speaker 3: Byron is a little overvalued because now they're up to

1022
00:46:41,480 --> 00:46:43,560
Speaker 3: like minus one fifty minus one sixty. They've taken money.

1023
00:46:43,680 --> 00:46:47,720
Speaker 3: They actually have taken more money as Dortmund was smashing Seville.

1024
00:46:47,840 --> 00:46:50,800
Speaker 3: People who are betting. You know, somebody was betting Byron

1025
00:46:50,840 --> 00:46:52,600
Speaker 3: to rolled Dortmund, which I think is a kind of

1026
00:46:52,640 --> 00:46:55,239
Speaker 3: a of a sense of what the situation is.

1027
00:46:55,320 --> 00:46:57,880
Speaker 1: Right, they rolled pleasant obviously.

1028
00:46:57,480 --> 00:47:01,440
Speaker 3: So yes, they definitely moved the needle. But I like

1029
00:47:01,440 --> 00:47:03,120
Speaker 3: the end of three and a half. This is one

1030
00:47:03,120 --> 00:47:04,680
Speaker 3: of the rare times I will actually bet it. I

1031
00:47:04,719 --> 00:47:06,640
Speaker 3: like betting it more so at Dortmun because you might

1032
00:47:06,640 --> 00:47:10,160
Speaker 3: get a better defensive effort. Defense is still okay, and

1033
00:47:10,239 --> 00:47:12,000
Speaker 3: they were really bad on the road to Cole last week,

1034
00:47:12,239 --> 00:47:15,200
Speaker 3: but they're still I think improved. So kim me the

1035
00:47:15,239 --> 00:47:15,960
Speaker 3: under and.

1036
00:47:16,080 --> 00:47:18,520
Speaker 4: BJ you're in for the pain too. Huh.

1037
00:47:18,600 --> 00:47:21,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean these matches are always stupid. Like Anthony mentioned,

1038
00:47:21,160 --> 00:47:23,279
Speaker 2: I mean both matches were under three and a half

1039
00:47:23,360 --> 00:47:25,839
Speaker 2: expected goals last Eeson, like Anthony mentioned, the second one

1040
00:47:25,880 --> 00:47:27,759
Speaker 2: had a penalty in it. I mean, Anthony, the nail

1041
00:47:27,760 --> 00:47:31,120
Speaker 2: on the head that this Dortmant attack just has nothing

1042
00:47:31,560 --> 00:47:34,120
Speaker 2: right now when they have to face a good side.

1043
00:47:34,320 --> 00:47:35,959
Speaker 2: But the flip side of that, and we've been talking

1044
00:47:35,960 --> 00:47:39,680
Speaker 2: about it, is that their defense has actually greatly approved

1045
00:47:39,719 --> 00:47:42,400
Speaker 2: with Soule and schlaughterback at as a center back pairing,

1046
00:47:42,640 --> 00:47:45,200
Speaker 2: so I think they'll be able to do some things

1047
00:47:45,239 --> 00:47:47,680
Speaker 2: to help keep Byron out versus you know, last season

1048
00:47:47,680 --> 00:47:50,160
Speaker 2: playing Humbles and Nick Kanji back there. I think that's

1049
00:47:50,160 --> 00:47:53,080
Speaker 2: a big improvement. Byron has a couple guys that might

1050
00:47:53,120 --> 00:47:56,839
Speaker 2: be you know, Thomas Mueller's questionable, Coleman's questionable as well,

1051
00:47:56,920 --> 00:47:59,080
Speaker 2: So obviously they have a ton of depth. So I'm

1052
00:47:59,080 --> 00:48:00,799
Speaker 2: not trying to say that byron Its attack is going

1053
00:48:00,840 --> 00:48:04,080
Speaker 2: to you know, not have their way in this match.

1054
00:48:04,160 --> 00:48:08,200
Speaker 2: But yeah, I only project three point one goals, so yeah,

1055
00:48:08,360 --> 00:48:11,600
Speaker 2: I'll I'll jump on the pain. It won't be fun,

1056
00:48:11,680 --> 00:48:13,600
Speaker 2: but yeah, there is some value on the under.

1057
00:48:14,360 --> 00:48:15,960
Speaker 3: I mean, I think Macoco is going to start, I

1058
00:48:16,000 --> 00:48:18,720
Speaker 3: mean he's seventeen, Yeah, and then like he shows promise,

1059
00:48:18,800 --> 00:48:19,560
Speaker 3: but he's seventeen.

1060
00:48:21,000 --> 00:48:25,279
Speaker 2: He's not not very big either, so yeah, him and

1061
00:48:25,320 --> 00:48:27,440
Speaker 2: Demi up top Ooh man, Yeah.

1062
00:48:27,280 --> 00:48:29,840
Speaker 3: That's and they're going to start time Kenny modest. But

1063
00:48:29,880 --> 00:48:32,000
Speaker 3: I mean is in d con.

1064
00:48:32,080 --> 00:48:33,480
Speaker 2: I mean, I mean if Byron wants to play a

1065
00:48:33,520 --> 00:48:36,000
Speaker 2: high line, like, he's not getting it behind them, So like,

1066
00:48:36,239 --> 00:48:37,960
Speaker 2: how is Dorman really going to threaten Byron if they

1067
00:48:37,960 --> 00:48:38,960
Speaker 2: want to play a high line?

1068
00:48:39,080 --> 00:48:39,279
Speaker 1: You know?

1069
00:48:39,600 --> 00:48:42,200
Speaker 4: So, yeah, what else in the Bundesliga for you this week?

1070
00:48:42,239 --> 00:48:42,439
Speaker 1: BJ?

1071
00:48:43,360 --> 00:48:46,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, how about a Friday afternoon kickoff hot line? Let's

1072
00:48:46,560 --> 00:48:50,080
Speaker 2: go minus one ten at home against Werder Bremen. Kind

1073
00:48:50,080 --> 00:48:51,799
Speaker 2: of a cheap price here, I think for Hoffenheim, who's

1074
00:48:51,800 --> 00:48:54,200
Speaker 2: sitting in the fifth in the Bundesliga, I think we

1075
00:48:54,239 --> 00:48:56,160
Speaker 2: can throw out their first match against Glodbach, where they

1076
00:48:56,200 --> 00:48:58,719
Speaker 2: got a red card in the nineteenth minute. Their last

1077
00:48:58,800 --> 00:49:00,960
Speaker 2: seven matches, they have a plus five point two expected

1078
00:49:00,960 --> 00:49:03,160
Speaker 2: goal differential and they've only lost the expected goals battle

1079
00:49:03,160 --> 00:49:05,960
Speaker 2: once and it was to Dortmund on the road. Last season,

1080
00:49:05,960 --> 00:49:07,560
Speaker 2: they were a really good offensive team. They were top

1081
00:49:07,560 --> 00:49:09,799
Speaker 2: five and expected goals. They created the second most big

1082
00:49:09,840 --> 00:49:12,719
Speaker 2: scoring chances, They played through pressure well, they progressed the

1083
00:49:12,719 --> 00:49:15,480
Speaker 2: ball up the field very well. Their Achilles heel was

1084
00:49:15,520 --> 00:49:18,200
Speaker 2: they just gave up far too many big scoring chances.

1085
00:49:18,280 --> 00:49:21,760
Speaker 2: They allowed one point seventy five per match this season.

1086
00:49:22,160 --> 00:49:24,160
Speaker 2: They went out and they got Ozon Kabak from Shaalka,

1087
00:49:24,200 --> 00:49:27,520
Speaker 2: who's now you know, slotted into their starting center back pairing.

1088
00:49:27,960 --> 00:49:31,040
Speaker 2: He's improved them quite drastically. Now they're allowing around one

1089
00:49:31,400 --> 00:49:34,560
Speaker 2: big scoring chance per match. So if the defense has improved,

1090
00:49:34,560 --> 00:49:36,920
Speaker 2: you still have a really good offense. And Werder Bremen

1091
00:49:37,320 --> 00:49:41,080
Speaker 2: their drastic over performers offensively eighteen goals of around twelve

1092
00:49:41,120 --> 00:49:43,839
Speaker 2: expected so far. I found this kind of funny. Werder

1093
00:49:43,880 --> 00:49:47,160
Speaker 2: Bremen has scored in every single match this season except

1094
00:49:47,239 --> 00:49:51,960
Speaker 2: for against Augsburg, of all teams, which is crazy to say.

1095
00:49:51,960 --> 00:49:53,960
Speaker 2: But stylistically I think this is a good advantage here

1096
00:49:53,960 --> 00:49:56,680
Speaker 2: for Hoffenheim because Worder Bremen they love depress high like

1097
00:49:56,680 --> 00:49:58,719
Speaker 2: their top five and pressures in the final third and

1098
00:49:58,800 --> 00:50:01,600
Speaker 2: high turnovers. But hof at him they're bottom five in

1099
00:50:01,600 --> 00:50:05,320
Speaker 2: those two categories. They're six to last in field tilt,

1100
00:50:05,600 --> 00:50:07,920
Speaker 2: but they are top five at playing through pressure, so

1101
00:50:07,960 --> 00:50:10,720
Speaker 2: I think they'll be able to sit deep and basically

1102
00:50:10,760 --> 00:50:12,880
Speaker 2: open up allow Werder Bremen to come on, bait them,

1103
00:50:12,920 --> 00:50:15,319
Speaker 2: to press them and then really play balls through and

1104
00:50:15,360 --> 00:50:17,040
Speaker 2: progress the ball up the field and create a lot

1105
00:50:17,040 --> 00:50:19,359
Speaker 2: of big scoring chances. So I have Hoffenheim projected at

1106
00:50:19,360 --> 00:50:21,279
Speaker 2: minus one thirty three, so I like the price on

1107
00:50:21,320 --> 00:50:23,279
Speaker 2: them at minus one ten at bet three sixty five.

1108
00:50:24,440 --> 00:50:27,359
Speaker 4: Anthony, we have a couple teams of the podcast. One

1109
00:50:27,400 --> 00:50:30,680
Speaker 4: of them is Mines. I'm going to talk about another

1110
00:50:30,680 --> 00:50:35,240
Speaker 4: one when we get to La Liga. You're on minds here, Yeah.

1111
00:50:35,080 --> 00:50:36,920
Speaker 3: You know, it's actually been kind of an underwhelming season

1112
00:50:36,920 --> 00:50:40,040
Speaker 3: for Mines thus far. Their underline numbers are pretty average,

1113
00:50:40,600 --> 00:50:44,120
Speaker 3: and I think they are still in a good spot

1114
00:50:44,160 --> 00:50:46,799
Speaker 3: here at home against Leipzig. Leipzig with a big winning

1115
00:50:46,800 --> 00:50:51,080
Speaker 3: the Champions League aided by some shocking goalkeeping. I mean,

1116
00:50:51,880 --> 00:50:53,799
Speaker 3: I don't want to ran about goalkeepers, but they've cost

1117
00:50:53,840 --> 00:50:55,360
Speaker 3: me a lot of money in the last week just

1118
00:50:55,400 --> 00:50:58,680
Speaker 3: passing the ball right to the other team. But Leipzig

1119
00:50:58,920 --> 00:51:02,880
Speaker 3: still looks extremely vulnerable in defensive transition. I mean, you

1120
00:51:02,920 --> 00:51:06,239
Speaker 3: watch the game today. Celtic had a lot of many

1121
00:51:06,280 --> 00:51:09,240
Speaker 3: periods of sustained pressure in that game where it looked

1122
00:51:09,280 --> 00:51:11,239
Speaker 3: like they should have scored in the first half and

1123
00:51:11,280 --> 00:51:14,240
Speaker 3: then in transition just ripped them apart in the early part.

1124
00:51:14,040 --> 00:51:14,680
Speaker 4: Of the second half.

1125
00:51:15,040 --> 00:51:16,839
Speaker 3: So I still have major question marks about this lip

1126
00:51:16,880 --> 00:51:20,279
Speaker 3: Sig defense. Even though watching Chris and Cuckoo Cook is

1127
00:51:20,320 --> 00:51:24,040
Speaker 3: a lot of fun, Mines still excellent defensively, and so

1128
00:51:24,160 --> 00:51:26,200
Speaker 3: I think this is a good matchup for Mines at home.

1129
00:51:27,080 --> 00:51:29,120
Speaker 3: They are undervalued. I like them on the drawn to

1130
00:51:29,160 --> 00:51:31,480
Speaker 3: bet line, and then I'll be betting them in our

1131
00:51:31,520 --> 00:51:32,640
Speaker 3: underdog segment as well.

1132
00:51:33,239 --> 00:51:38,839
Speaker 4: From Germany to Spain La Liga BJ. Let's start with you.

1133
00:51:39,640 --> 00:51:42,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, I like sociate Dad via real over two and

1134
00:51:42,360 --> 00:51:45,480
Speaker 2: a half goals even money. So listen, we all love

1135
00:51:45,640 --> 00:51:49,400
Speaker 2: Alexander Eschach on this podcast, but Sociate Dad's created seven

1136
00:51:49,440 --> 00:51:52,120
Speaker 2: point seven expected goals in the five matches without him

1137
00:51:52,200 --> 00:51:54,600
Speaker 2: so far, which is actually a higher average than they

1138
00:51:54,640 --> 00:51:57,680
Speaker 2: had with him last season. Again, we love e Shach,

1139
00:51:57,800 --> 00:52:00,960
Speaker 2: but something kind of maybe have been notable. I mean,

1140
00:52:01,000 --> 00:52:03,160
Speaker 2: they just put five past Gerona on the weekend. This

1141
00:52:03,239 --> 00:52:06,279
Speaker 2: is the same team that underperformed drastically last season. You know,

1142
00:52:06,400 --> 00:52:08,800
Speaker 2: forty goals off fifty three expected. They were due for

1143
00:52:08,880 --> 00:52:12,600
Speaker 2: some positive aggression. Uniamoris via Raal does have the second

1144
00:52:12,640 --> 00:52:15,520
Speaker 2: best defense unexpected goals, but you kind of have to

1145
00:52:15,520 --> 00:52:18,839
Speaker 2: take with grain AsSalt given the schedule they've played Valadeleide,

1146
00:52:19,000 --> 00:52:22,360
Speaker 2: you know, Athletico obviously a very very difficult test in Gaitafe,

1147
00:52:22,719 --> 00:52:25,359
Speaker 2: Lja bettis Sevilla Kadiz not.

1148
00:52:25,640 --> 00:52:27,080
Speaker 1: Exactly Murder's row.

1149
00:52:27,440 --> 00:52:30,400
Speaker 2: On the flip side, Vreel's offense absolutely clicking, just like

1150
00:52:30,440 --> 00:52:33,400
Speaker 2: it was last season. They didn't lose anybody over the offseason.

1151
00:52:33,400 --> 00:52:36,680
Speaker 2: They already created thirteen expected goals in seven matches and

1152
00:52:37,000 --> 00:52:39,360
Speaker 2: you know, per info Goals expected goals model, they have

1153
00:52:39,440 --> 00:52:41,640
Speaker 2: only been held under one and a half expected goals

1154
00:52:42,200 --> 00:52:44,000
Speaker 2: one time in their first seven matches, and it was

1155
00:52:44,000 --> 00:52:46,279
Speaker 2: against Gaitafe. And you know, the two meetings were pretty

1156
00:52:46,320 --> 00:52:49,280
Speaker 2: high event last season. First one had over four expected

1157
00:52:49,280 --> 00:52:51,080
Speaker 2: goals created, in the second one had three point two.

1158
00:52:51,160 --> 00:52:52,839
Speaker 2: So two and a half goals is that even money,

1159
00:52:52,840 --> 00:52:55,080
Speaker 2: which I think is a little cheap, So like over

1160
00:52:55,080 --> 00:52:56,960
Speaker 2: two and a half in Associate Vireel.

1161
00:52:57,080 --> 00:52:59,960
Speaker 3: There's been a scoring explosion in La Liga this year.

1162
00:53:00,040 --> 00:53:00,520
Speaker 3: It's been fun.

1163
00:53:01,120 --> 00:53:02,880
Speaker 1: I think we're gonna have start playing some movers in

1164
00:53:03,160 --> 00:53:03,880
Speaker 1: La Liga.

1165
00:53:04,000 --> 00:53:06,759
Speaker 4: Not against this team though, that's Athletic club, Bill Boo.

1166
00:53:07,320 --> 00:53:09,920
Speaker 4: That's my favorite bet. This week down the road against

1167
00:53:10,080 --> 00:53:13,239
Speaker 4: Anthony's boys, Sevilla bill Bo Los Leone's the team from

1168
00:53:13,239 --> 00:53:16,600
Speaker 4: the Basque Country. There plus one forty sixty five to

1169
00:53:16,640 --> 00:53:19,600
Speaker 4: one to win La Liga, three points adrift of Barcelona

1170
00:53:19,719 --> 00:53:24,279
Speaker 4: right now and the best the second best defense. Maybe

1171
00:53:25,239 --> 00:53:28,399
Speaker 4: they're the second best defensive team by expected goals in

1172
00:53:28,680 --> 00:53:32,000
Speaker 4: the Spanish top flight right now. They're taking on Sevilla,

1173
00:53:32,040 --> 00:53:35,680
Speaker 4: who are the second worst, and our religious look just awful.

1174
00:53:36,000 --> 00:53:39,960
Speaker 4: Also coming off some short rest. So yeah, even as

1175
00:53:39,960 --> 00:53:44,000
Speaker 4: a road favorite, still continue to sell low, which is

1176
00:53:44,040 --> 00:53:46,080
Speaker 4: bad betting hygiene, but I'm gonna do it anyways. On

1177
00:53:46,120 --> 00:53:49,480
Speaker 4: Sevilla with Los Leones bill Bao first bet on them

1178
00:53:49,480 --> 00:53:51,520
Speaker 4: for me, I think the season feels good to be

1179
00:53:51,600 --> 00:53:53,000
Speaker 4: back in the Basque Country.

1180
00:53:53,040 --> 00:53:55,480
Speaker 3: Anthony, I will say bet regret maybe of the year

1181
00:53:55,520 --> 00:53:59,360
Speaker 3: for me. The players knew Lowpateagy was getting fired before

1182
00:53:59,400 --> 00:54:02,359
Speaker 3: the game. I didn't know that, and I didn't find

1183
00:54:02,400 --> 00:54:04,799
Speaker 3: out until the Glosso show kicked off and they said

1184
00:54:04,840 --> 00:54:06,879
Speaker 3: that on the broadcast, and I was like, why am

1185
00:54:06,880 --> 00:54:08,880
Speaker 3: I Why don't I have my bank account on Dortmound

1186
00:54:08,880 --> 00:54:11,080
Speaker 3: here at plus one forty that that's an absurd number.

1187
00:54:11,120 --> 00:54:12,280
Speaker 3: And then they scored in the six minutes.

1188
00:54:12,360 --> 00:54:14,360
Speaker 1: So do you know Sevia's bringing in?

1189
00:54:15,520 --> 00:54:17,440
Speaker 3: I hadn't heard. But no matter who it is, he's

1190
00:54:17,480 --> 00:54:18,560
Speaker 3: not going to solve their problems.

1191
00:54:19,040 --> 00:54:20,560
Speaker 1: It's Sampalli from Marseille.

1192
00:54:20,840 --> 00:54:22,800
Speaker 3: Oh my goodness.

1193
00:54:22,520 --> 00:54:24,640
Speaker 1: Just just oh my gosh.

1194
00:54:24,719 --> 00:54:28,200
Speaker 3: They're they're apt to get you from another and little

1195
00:54:28,239 --> 00:54:31,160
Speaker 3: Potagy is going to Wolves potentially, I know, like that's

1196
00:54:31,360 --> 00:54:33,600
Speaker 3: I mean, they're just these bad teams that we hate,

1197
00:54:33,640 --> 00:54:36,040
Speaker 3: just trade managers. I can't wait to figure out.

1198
00:54:36,160 --> 00:54:37,040
Speaker 4: Uh, we don't hate Wolf.

1199
00:54:37,239 --> 00:54:40,680
Speaker 3: We're sorry it's gonna end up, but but uh we'll

1200
00:54:40,719 --> 00:54:42,919
Speaker 3: see these lots. Anytime you can bet on a team

1201
00:54:43,560 --> 00:54:46,120
Speaker 3: named CLV and gambling, I mean, how did you not

1202
00:54:46,160 --> 00:54:47,920
Speaker 3: do it right? You know, we bet on them last

1203
00:54:47,920 --> 00:54:49,680
Speaker 3: week get home against Bettest they cash for us. Now

1204
00:54:49,680 --> 00:54:52,520
Speaker 3: I'm gonna take an under. It's a terrible spot for Barcelona.

1205
00:54:52,840 --> 00:54:55,640
Speaker 3: They just had a really tough loss on the road

1206
00:54:55,640 --> 00:54:59,000
Speaker 3: at Inter. They have to host Inter next week and

1207
00:54:59,400 --> 00:55:02,960
Speaker 3: El Classy co Is the week after. So you have

1208
00:55:03,000 --> 00:55:05,600
Speaker 3: three matches against Inter Milan, Inter Milan and Barca Real

1209
00:55:05,640 --> 00:55:07,880
Speaker 3: Madrid that will go a long way towards deciding your season.

1210
00:55:08,400 --> 00:55:11,560
Speaker 3: And this is in October. I mean, it's getting dicey

1211
00:55:11,600 --> 00:55:14,680
Speaker 3: for Barsa and our tickets right now. But now they

1212
00:55:14,719 --> 00:55:18,120
Speaker 3: have a home match against Southern Vigo, and Barcelona has

1213
00:55:18,200 --> 00:55:20,680
Speaker 3: been flat in the last few matches, and I think

1214
00:55:20,800 --> 00:55:25,880
Speaker 3: that there's there's some pressure surrounding Lewandowsky. But really I

1215
00:55:25,960 --> 00:55:27,680
Speaker 3: think this is more a matter of they'll probably wake

1216
00:55:27,760 --> 00:55:29,200
Speaker 3: up at some point, but I do not think this

1217
00:55:29,280 --> 00:55:30,920
Speaker 3: is the spot where they will do that. South of

1218
00:55:30,960 --> 00:55:32,400
Speaker 3: Vigo is a bet on team for me. They're a

1219
00:55:32,400 --> 00:55:34,600
Speaker 3: team who's run really unlucky thus far with their expected

1220
00:55:34,640 --> 00:55:37,600
Speaker 3: goals allowed. They've conceded thirteen goals from less than nine expected.

1221
00:55:38,800 --> 00:55:40,640
Speaker 3: Vigo's a solid team. They're a top half team in

1222
00:55:40,680 --> 00:55:43,840
Speaker 3: the league under three. I think their defense will be effective.

1223
00:55:43,880 --> 00:55:46,280
Speaker 3: Barsia will be flat under.

1224
00:55:46,280 --> 00:55:49,319
Speaker 4: That's an interesting spot. Maybe maybe South of Vigo. On

1225
00:55:49,360 --> 00:55:50,319
Speaker 4: the money line, I looked at.

1226
00:55:50,320 --> 00:55:52,680
Speaker 3: Vego plus one and a half two. I might play both.

1227
00:55:52,719 --> 00:55:55,680
Speaker 4: All right, let's talk Siria ah, because we have to

1228
00:55:56,320 --> 00:55:58,640
Speaker 4: BJ laying it with Torino.

1229
00:55:59,160 --> 00:56:00,799
Speaker 2: Yeah, kind of a cheap price here, I think for

1230
00:56:00,880 --> 00:56:03,520
Speaker 2: Toarino at home against Empoli. I mean I thought, at

1231
00:56:03,600 --> 00:56:05,520
Speaker 2: least I thought Torino would take a step back the

1232
00:56:05,560 --> 00:56:08,040
Speaker 2: season after losing Bremmer and a couple of other key pieces

1233
00:56:08,040 --> 00:56:09,759
Speaker 2: from that team that we all loved last year. But

1234
00:56:09,800 --> 00:56:11,959
Speaker 2: they've continued to be pretty good. I mean they haven't

1235
00:56:11,960 --> 00:56:14,920
Speaker 2: even expected goal of differential through eight matches, but you know,

1236
00:56:14,960 --> 00:56:18,400
Speaker 2: four of them came against Lazio, Adelanta enter Annapoli. The

1237
00:56:18,480 --> 00:56:21,920
Speaker 2: other four matches were against Manza, Leche, crimin Esa and

1238
00:56:22,000 --> 00:56:26,239
Speaker 2: Sasuolo and they put up seven expected goals and all

1239
00:56:26,280 --> 00:56:29,440
Speaker 2: allowed three point six. You know, Tono obviously plays this

1240
00:56:29,600 --> 00:56:32,719
Speaker 2: very slow, possession based style, whereas Empoli is four to

1241
00:56:32,719 --> 00:56:34,879
Speaker 2: four two, but they love to come out and try

1242
00:56:34,920 --> 00:56:37,040
Speaker 2: and press teams high, which leaves them very open and

1243
00:56:37,080 --> 00:56:39,000
Speaker 2: why they allow a lot of expected goals. They have

1244
00:56:39,400 --> 00:56:42,720
Speaker 2: the second most high turnovers in Syria. Ah, but Torino

1245
00:56:42,840 --> 00:56:45,360
Speaker 2: is the third best team in Italy at playing through pressure,

1246
00:56:45,400 --> 00:56:46,640
Speaker 2: so I have no doubt they're just going to rip

1247
00:56:46,680 --> 00:56:51,160
Speaker 2: apart this Empoli defense, who has been pretty lackluster to

1248
00:56:51,200 --> 00:56:53,960
Speaker 2: begin the season like they were last year. Have Torino

1249
00:56:53,960 --> 00:56:56,240
Speaker 2: projected at minus one forty nine, so like the Valiant

1250
00:56:56,239 --> 00:56:57,200
Speaker 2: minus one twenty.

1251
00:56:56,920 --> 00:57:00,480
Speaker 4: Five, Anthony, what do you have for us from your mind?

1252
00:57:00,640 --> 00:57:03,120
Speaker 3: BJ and I disagree here. He's gonna be on Verona

1253
00:57:03,200 --> 00:57:07,120
Speaker 3: I don't on sour and Eitana. Look, I think our

1254
00:57:07,160 --> 00:57:10,080
Speaker 3: priors are wrong on Verona because you're basing off of

1255
00:57:10,160 --> 00:57:12,920
Speaker 3: last year's numbers. This team is so much worse than

1256
00:57:12,960 --> 00:57:16,120
Speaker 3: last year's it's not even comparable. Kevin Lasagna is their

1257
00:57:16,120 --> 00:57:18,880
Speaker 3: primary goal scorer right now, in terms of at least

1258
00:57:18,920 --> 00:57:24,280
Speaker 3: primary shotgetter. That's thirty year old Kevin Lasagna. I have

1259
00:57:24,360 --> 00:57:26,720
Speaker 3: no idea how this team will continue to score for

1260
00:57:26,760 --> 00:57:29,200
Speaker 3: the rest of the season. I'm very skeptical of this team.

1261
00:57:29,640 --> 00:57:31,720
Speaker 3: I think they're a prime fade candidate. Their last three

1262
00:57:31,800 --> 00:57:36,360
Speaker 3: away matches point seven expected goals against Emplye, point three

1263
00:57:36,760 --> 00:57:40,920
Speaker 3: against Lazzio, point eight against Fiorentina. Then they came home

1264
00:57:41,320 --> 00:57:44,840
Speaker 3: point three against Udines. They had one good home game

1265
00:57:44,880 --> 00:57:47,520
Speaker 3: against sam Doria, who was also in the relegation battle.

1266
00:57:47,560 --> 00:57:50,360
Speaker 3: That was at home, though now they're going on the road. Also,

1267
00:57:50,560 --> 00:57:52,360
Speaker 3: you can even go back early in the year against

1268
00:57:52,360 --> 00:57:56,480
Speaker 3: Adelanta at home, a very weak Adelanta lineup. They took

1269
00:57:56,480 --> 00:57:59,960
Speaker 3: a lot of money, created less than one expected goal

1270
00:58:00,000 --> 00:58:03,240
Speaker 3: point five. So this team just has no goal scorers.

1271
00:58:03,240 --> 00:58:04,720
Speaker 3: I mean, look, they were lucky last year, they were

1272
00:58:04,760 --> 00:58:07,120
Speaker 3: a prime aggression candidate, and then they lost the two

1273
00:58:07,160 --> 00:58:09,320
Speaker 3: dudes who were really good at finishing the chances and

1274
00:58:09,440 --> 00:58:13,080
Speaker 3: running really hot. I think they're really bad, and I

1275
00:58:13,120 --> 00:58:15,360
Speaker 3: think the market's not quite caught up yet, so give

1276
00:58:15,360 --> 00:58:19,000
Speaker 3: me a salary time at home. I think they're you'll

1277
00:58:19,000 --> 00:58:23,880
Speaker 3: never ever get comparable, comparable team, comparable team at home.

1278
00:58:24,960 --> 00:58:29,720
Speaker 4: Love it League? Oh BJ what we got?

1279
00:58:30,320 --> 00:58:33,520
Speaker 1: How about Lorient on the road against Brest?

1280
00:58:33,680 --> 00:58:36,760
Speaker 2: How about a third straight fade of uh breast they've

1281
00:58:36,760 --> 00:58:39,600
Speaker 2: been They've been bad, like they have been horrible. They've

1282
00:58:39,640 --> 00:58:42,080
Speaker 2: allowed ten expected goals in their last six matches, like

1283
00:58:42,120 --> 00:58:44,360
Speaker 2: they just played Augier over the weekend, Asher got a

1284
00:58:44,360 --> 00:58:46,800
Speaker 2: red card in not the fiftieth minute and Brest still

1285
00:58:46,800 --> 00:58:50,040
Speaker 2: only created zero point six expected goals in the Orient. Yeah,

1286
00:58:50,040 --> 00:58:52,240
Speaker 2: they've been overforming, but they're riding a five match win

1287
00:58:52,280 --> 00:58:54,720
Speaker 2: streak coming into this thing. They've you know, they haven't

1288
00:58:54,760 --> 00:58:56,560
Speaker 2: been good defensively. But I think the price is a

1289
00:58:56,600 --> 00:58:59,280
Speaker 2: little crazy. I mean, this dotted breastpat team is one

1290
00:58:59,280 --> 00:59:01,680
Speaker 2: of the worst teams France, So I think you're getting

1291
00:59:02,080 --> 00:59:04,920
Speaker 2: a good price here on a red hot Lorient at

1292
00:59:05,000 --> 00:59:06,240
Speaker 2: jronal Bett plus one twenty.

1293
00:59:06,360 --> 00:59:10,960
Speaker 4: All right, that wraps up our jaunt around the rest

1294
00:59:10,960 --> 00:59:14,480
Speaker 4: of the Big five, our little European adventure. There. Now

1295
00:59:14,480 --> 00:59:17,160
Speaker 4: we get to talk about our favorite underdogs for the week.

1296
00:59:18,040 --> 00:59:21,240
Speaker 4: As always, I will remind you these bets are not

1297
00:59:21,280 --> 00:59:22,760
Speaker 4: for the fandom heart, but we will tell you what

1298
00:59:22,800 --> 00:59:25,400
Speaker 4: the odds would be if you put all three of

1299
00:59:25,440 --> 00:59:29,320
Speaker 4: these teams together in a three leg parlay BJ back

1300
00:59:29,360 --> 00:59:29,880
Speaker 4: to France.

1301
00:59:30,720 --> 00:59:31,000
Speaker 1: Yeah.

1302
00:59:31,080 --> 00:59:34,400
Speaker 2: I'm just living in the relegation zone of France betting it.

1303
00:59:34,400 --> 00:59:36,200
Speaker 2: It's just been torture for me this season. But this

1304
00:59:36,280 --> 00:59:38,760
Speaker 2: Claremont Foot team is annoying the living crap out of me.

1305
00:59:38,960 --> 00:59:42,920
Speaker 2: They have the fewest expected goals in league on and

1306
00:59:43,000 --> 00:59:45,919
Speaker 2: have allowed the most. They have a negative ten point

1307
00:59:45,960 --> 00:59:48,160
Speaker 2: two expect a goal Diffrench Well, they are sitting in

1308
00:59:48,240 --> 00:59:50,560
Speaker 2: ninth place with four wins. I tried to fade them

1309
00:59:50,600 --> 00:59:52,360
Speaker 2: over this past league with the Jockxio. It did not

1310
00:59:52,440 --> 00:59:55,400
Speaker 2: go well. They scored two bangers in the ninetieth minute.

1311
00:59:55,560 --> 00:59:57,680
Speaker 2: It was not fun. So I'm taking age Air plus

1312
00:59:57,720 --> 00:59:59,840
Speaker 2: two sixty on the road at Claremont Foot because there's

1313
00:59:59,880 --> 01:00:01,880
Speaker 2: no way in hell that they should be minus one

1314
01:00:01,960 --> 01:00:04,920
Speaker 2: oh five against anybody in France. This team is taking

1315
01:00:04,960 --> 01:00:07,680
Speaker 2: the fewest shots of anybody in France and they've allowed

1316
01:00:07,680 --> 01:00:10,640
Speaker 2: the second most. This team is really really bad. They

1317
01:00:10,680 --> 01:00:13,080
Speaker 2: lost their best striker from last season. They've just been

1318
01:00:13,120 --> 01:00:17,400
Speaker 2: overperforming like crazy. So yeah, I'm just going to keep

1319
01:00:17,440 --> 01:00:21,520
Speaker 2: trying to fade this clear moont foot team until until

1320
01:00:21,560 --> 01:00:23,480
Speaker 2: the end of the season, until or until I'm bankrupt.

1321
01:00:23,640 --> 01:00:25,840
Speaker 2: So aug Air plus two sixty.

1322
01:00:27,280 --> 01:00:30,320
Speaker 4: A team that I've been regularly fading to mixed results.

1323
01:00:30,640 --> 01:00:33,200
Speaker 4: West Ham minus one thirty eight. They're hosting Fulham following

1324
01:00:33,320 --> 01:00:35,840
Speaker 4: my favorite underdog plus three seventy five. That price might

1325
01:00:35,840 --> 01:00:38,880
Speaker 4: continue to tick up as lineups come out because Fulham

1326
01:00:38,920 --> 01:00:41,280
Speaker 4: is going through a little bit of an injury. Song

1327
01:00:41,320 --> 01:00:44,080
Speaker 4: and Dance here. It's been a downward swing for the Cottagers.

1328
01:00:44,240 --> 01:00:47,760
Speaker 4: Their defense is not very good. In fact, they're near

1329
01:00:47,840 --> 01:00:49,760
Speaker 4: the bottom or at the bottom in terms of non

1330
01:00:49,800 --> 01:00:52,880
Speaker 4: penalty expected goals allowed, a big chances out but west

1331
01:00:52,960 --> 01:00:56,320
Speaker 4: Ham's offense nineteenth in creating expected goals eighteenth and creating

1332
01:00:56,320 --> 01:00:58,919
Speaker 4: big scoring chances. This game could turn into a little

1333
01:00:58,920 --> 01:01:00,720
Speaker 4: bit of a rock fight, and if that is how

1334
01:01:00,720 --> 01:01:03,400
Speaker 4: it plays out, you're going to be wanting to hold

1335
01:01:03,440 --> 01:01:06,640
Speaker 4: a plus three seventy five ticket on the Cottagers. Marco

1336
01:01:06,800 --> 01:01:10,720
Speaker 4: Silva and Fulham. They're my favorite underdog, Anthony with yours.

1337
01:01:11,040 --> 01:01:13,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, Leipzig is a better team than mine. They're not

1338
01:01:13,160 --> 01:01:14,920
Speaker 3: a better team to the point where they should be

1339
01:01:14,920 --> 01:01:18,080
Speaker 3: this much of a road favorite like Minds plus two

1340
01:01:18,360 --> 01:01:23,960
Speaker 3: fifteen at home. Our boys from Germany excellent preventing big

1341
01:01:23,960 --> 01:01:26,600
Speaker 3: scoring chances, should be able to find some success and

1342
01:01:26,680 --> 01:01:29,720
Speaker 3: defensive transition. Still have question marks about Leipzig. They're not

1343
01:01:29,760 --> 01:01:32,480
Speaker 3: dominating matches. Bja talked about this last week. Field tilt

1344
01:01:32,560 --> 01:01:34,920
Speaker 3: numbers a little bit concerning for Leipzig. And now I've

1345
01:01:34,920 --> 01:01:37,520
Speaker 3: been prone to be flat in random games. We've seen

1346
01:01:37,560 --> 01:01:39,440
Speaker 3: it against Frankfurt, We've seen it against Glodbach.

1347
01:01:39,720 --> 01:01:40,400
Speaker 1: Could very well be.

1348
01:01:40,400 --> 01:01:45,480
Speaker 4: Flat here Fulham agger and mines three leg money line

1349
01:01:45,480 --> 01:01:47,400
Speaker 4: parlay fifty three to one. I feel really good about

1350
01:01:47,440 --> 01:01:49,840
Speaker 4: this one. This, Yeah, what a parlay is going to

1351
01:01:49,920 --> 01:01:52,480
Speaker 4: be the one that hits. You're gonna want to be

1352
01:01:52,560 --> 01:01:55,240
Speaker 4: on it, and if it does, Anthony will send you

1353
01:01:55,320 --> 01:01:59,080
Speaker 4: a Philadelphia Philly suersey if you leave us a comment

1354
01:01:59,160 --> 01:02:01,160
Speaker 4: or something. Let's talk about our best bets in the

1355
01:02:01,160 --> 01:02:04,800
Speaker 4: Premier League. Now, bj, we'll start with you.

1356
01:02:05,800 --> 01:02:08,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, I like Bournemuth Lester under two and a half

1357
01:02:08,160 --> 01:02:09,880
Speaker 2: goals at plus one oh five. I really don't think

1358
01:02:09,880 --> 01:02:12,200
Speaker 2: this shit total should be sitting at plus money. Bourne

1359
01:02:12,200 --> 01:02:18,120
Speaker 2: myth against non Big six sides have created little over

1360
01:02:18,160 --> 01:02:20,520
Speaker 2: two expected goals on the season. Their matches against non

1361
01:02:20,560 --> 01:02:23,600
Speaker 2: Big six sides are only averaging one point nine expected goals.

1362
01:02:23,760 --> 01:02:26,360
Speaker 2: They've created the fewest chances big chance scoring chances in

1363
01:02:26,400 --> 01:02:29,680
Speaker 2: the Premier League. Lester has created the second fewest in

1364
01:02:29,680 --> 01:02:32,200
Speaker 2: the Premier League. They've only created three on the season

1365
01:02:32,240 --> 01:02:34,640
Speaker 2: and their matches against non Big six sides are only

1366
01:02:34,640 --> 01:02:35,440
Speaker 2: averaging two.

1367
01:02:35,240 --> 01:02:36,920
Speaker 1: Point one expected goals.

1368
01:02:37,440 --> 01:02:40,600
Speaker 2: Lesser is a big time candidate for underscre that their

1369
01:02:40,640 --> 01:02:42,840
Speaker 2: matches have had thirty six goals off of twenty point

1370
01:02:42,880 --> 01:02:46,000
Speaker 2: three expected It's been a mixture of really bad goalkeeping

1371
01:02:46,160 --> 01:02:49,040
Speaker 2: and James Madison just making a ton of shots from

1372
01:02:49,080 --> 01:02:51,760
Speaker 2: outside the box, which really isn't that sustainable. Borne is

1373
01:02:51,760 --> 01:02:53,080
Speaker 2: going to sit in the low block, and I really

1374
01:02:53,080 --> 01:02:54,840
Speaker 2: have question marks if Lester is going to really be

1375
01:02:54,840 --> 01:02:56,959
Speaker 2: able to actually break down that low block that's actually

1376
01:02:57,000 --> 01:02:58,920
Speaker 2: been pretty good defensively, So under two and a half

1377
01:02:58,960 --> 01:02:59,840
Speaker 2: goals at plus one five.

1378
01:03:00,960 --> 01:03:03,000
Speaker 4: My best bet is Everden. They're plus two seventy five

1379
01:03:03,000 --> 01:03:05,000
Speaker 4: and a quick reminder you can follow our best bets

1380
01:03:05,000 --> 01:03:08,000
Speaker 4: and our underdogs. In the Action Network app, the username

1381
01:03:08,040 --> 01:03:12,680
Speaker 4: is Wonder Goal Podcast. I like Everdon because they're good

1382
01:03:13,280 --> 01:03:14,920
Speaker 4: and I've been trying to tell you guys this for

1383
01:03:14,960 --> 01:03:18,600
Speaker 4: a long time, that Frank Lampard revolution, just like the

1384
01:03:18,600 --> 01:03:22,080
Speaker 4: brune Allows revolution that I called. It's going well. Everdon

1385
01:03:22,200 --> 01:03:24,400
Speaker 4: have are on a seven match on beaten streak. They

1386
01:03:24,440 --> 01:03:26,360
Speaker 4: haven't allowed more than a goal since their game against

1387
01:03:26,400 --> 01:03:28,320
Speaker 4: aston Villa that was a second game of the year.

1388
01:03:28,600 --> 01:03:30,520
Speaker 4: That is also the last time they lost the match.

1389
01:03:31,080 --> 01:03:34,440
Speaker 4: The United defense is the big key here. Sixteenth in

1390
01:03:34,600 --> 01:03:37,479
Speaker 4: non a penalty expectacles allowed sixteenth and shots for ninety

1391
01:03:37,480 --> 01:03:39,360
Speaker 4: and twelfth and big scoring chances. And we've seen time

1392
01:03:39,400 --> 01:03:41,240
Speaker 4: and time again with this team and their personnel, they

1393
01:03:41,320 --> 01:03:43,960
Speaker 4: just can't break down teams that are going to sit

1394
01:03:44,040 --> 01:03:46,720
Speaker 4: back and do what to man Chester United, what Manchester

1395
01:03:46,840 --> 01:03:50,120
Speaker 4: United wants to do to them, which is absorbent counter

1396
01:03:50,800 --> 01:03:54,200
Speaker 4: Frank Lampard and his topies, they keep running up the table.

1397
01:03:54,240 --> 01:03:59,640
Speaker 4: Man Man City's next look out here they come, Anthony

1398
01:04:00,040 --> 01:04:01,919
Speaker 4: a real sickle for this one. What's your favorite bet?

1399
01:04:02,840 --> 01:04:06,480
Speaker 3: Brighton draw no bet plus one to two at home

1400
01:04:06,520 --> 01:04:10,880
Speaker 3: against Tottenham Hotspur. Look I have said on this podcast

1401
01:04:10,920 --> 01:04:13,560
Speaker 3: for the last month now that I feel like Spurs

1402
01:04:13,560 --> 01:04:17,000
Speaker 3: are regressing a bit, and I think now without Dayon Kouliseevski,

1403
01:04:17,040 --> 01:04:20,320
Speaker 3: you're starting to see the problem that they have. First

1404
01:04:20,320 --> 01:04:24,240
Speaker 3: of all, Brighton will have no problems with the deserve system.

1405
01:04:24,760 --> 01:04:26,560
Speaker 3: They play well under pressure, but they're not even going

1406
01:04:26,640 --> 01:04:29,320
Speaker 3: to be pressing this match. Spurs pressing indicators are pretty

1407
01:04:29,360 --> 01:04:31,919
Speaker 3: mediocre as as well. They don't press from the front,

1408
01:04:31,920 --> 01:04:36,600
Speaker 3: they don't do a ton of successful team pressing, and

1409
01:04:37,640 --> 01:04:39,240
Speaker 3: that means Brighton will have plenty of the ball. They'll

1410
01:04:39,240 --> 01:04:41,280
Speaker 3: be able to play through Spurs a little bit. They

1411
01:04:41,280 --> 01:04:44,440
Speaker 3: should actually control the flow of this match, and it's

1412
01:04:44,440 --> 01:04:46,560
Speaker 3: going to be a heavily reliant on Spurs to create

1413
01:04:46,560 --> 01:04:51,240
Speaker 3: in transition, which they're comfortable doing. But without Kouloseevsky, they

1414
01:04:51,240 --> 01:04:54,720
Speaker 3: really lack the playmaking ability and I think that's a

1415
01:04:54,720 --> 01:04:59,360
Speaker 3: major concern here on the road. I like Brighton drawn

1416
01:04:59,400 --> 01:05:01,040
Speaker 3: no bet no, I.

1417
01:05:00,960 --> 01:05:05,440
Speaker 4: Can't believe you're doing it. And that wraps up another

1418
01:05:05,480 --> 01:05:09,240
Speaker 4: episode of Wonderful For Anthony Dubundo. For bj Coneham, I'm

1419
01:05:09,240 --> 01:05:10,880
Speaker 4: Michael Leebuff, wishing you the best of luck and we

1420
01:05:10,880 --> 01:05:14,200
Speaker 4: will see you again Monday. Morning to talk about more

1421
01:05:14,280 --> 01:05:16,919
Speaker 4: Champions League soccer. Until then, best of luck,