WEBVTT - Bloomberg Surveillance TV: August 20, 2024 0:00:02.440 --> 0:00:06.800 Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. 0:00:11.640 --> 0:00:15.440 This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferrow, along 0:00:15.480 --> 0:00:18.680 with Lisa Bromwitz and Amrie Hordern. Join us each day 0:00:18.720 --> 0:00:22.280 for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics 0:00:22.440 --> 0:00:24.920 from our global headquarters in New York City. We are 0:00:24.920 --> 0:00:27.680 live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from six to nine 0:00:27.720 --> 0:00:31.240 am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or 0:00:31.320 --> 0:00:33.960 anywhere else you listen, and as always on the Bloomberg 0:00:34.040 --> 0:00:37.000 Terminal and the Bloomberg Business App. We begin with our 0:00:37.040 --> 0:00:39.159 top story, the S and P five hundred notching its 0:00:39.159 --> 0:00:42.160 longest winning street since November as Trader's Way the Fed's 0:00:42.200 --> 0:00:45.120 path ahead, Bob Michael of JP Morgan Accid Management letting 0:00:45.159 --> 0:00:48.199 out his timeline right in the following. We expect twenty 0:00:48.200 --> 0:00:51.159 five basis point ray cuts at each FMC meeting in 0:00:51.200 --> 0:00:54.160 twenty twenty four, and then quarterly in twenty five. A 0:00:54.240 --> 0:00:58.040 consistent rate cutting cycle is the essential ingredient in our 0:00:58.080 --> 0:01:00.760 forecast of a soft landing. On just now for more, 0:01:00.760 --> 0:01:03.440 Buck and Mornic, good morning, everything and nothing has changed 0:01:03.480 --> 0:01:05.520 since we last spoke, Because I think we lost spoke 0:01:05.560 --> 0:01:09.160 on federalzerv Decision Day two days before that scary job support, 0:01:09.200 --> 0:01:11.600 which we've all moved on from what's your take on 0:01:11.640 --> 0:01:14.240 where things have been over the last couple of weeks. 0:01:14.080 --> 0:01:16.840 But so much has changed. We were sitting here on 0:01:17.000 --> 0:01:21.000 FED Day and we were saying, just get through this meeting. 0:01:21.080 --> 0:01:25.160 You have a free inter meeting meeting with Jackson Hole. 0:01:25.280 --> 0:01:28.320 You can wait and watch the data and have a 0:01:28.360 --> 0:01:31.759 do over before this September meeting. And here we are 0:01:31.800 --> 0:01:34.399 at Jackson Hole, and they should take the do over. 0:01:34.640 --> 0:01:38.600 They've they looked at the employment data, it's softened up. 0:01:38.920 --> 0:01:41.880 You look at the inflation data, it's come into where 0:01:41.920 --> 0:01:42.600 they would like. 0:01:42.600 --> 0:01:43.080 To see it. 0:01:43.520 --> 0:01:48.040 I would use this Jackson Hole conference to set the 0:01:48.160 --> 0:01:51.440 time frame and expectations for the market. We're going to 0:01:51.480 --> 0:01:54.680 cut rates. This is the shape it's going to take. 0:01:54.800 --> 0:01:57.280 These are the things we're looking at. There's a gift. 0:01:57.480 --> 0:02:00.280 On the other hand, I think they should just do nothing. 0:02:00.640 --> 0:02:04.080 All the data has come their way. They've guided us 0:02:04.120 --> 0:02:07.720 to a feathery soft landing. Just don't mess it up. 0:02:07.920 --> 0:02:11.079 Start cutting rates in September and let's get on with you. 0:02:11.080 --> 0:02:13.920 You're talking about what's needed, the essential ingredient for that 0:02:13.960 --> 0:02:17.000 feathery soft landing, and it's quite a cool Still you're 0:02:17.000 --> 0:02:20.080 looking for three cuts this year at twenty five basis points, 0:02:20.480 --> 0:02:23.160 and then again through twenty twenty five. Just this consistent 0:02:23.520 --> 0:02:27.000 rate cutting cycle you've described. Why is that the essential ingredient? 0:02:27.160 --> 0:02:30.320 Where do you think neutral is? What is restrictive, what's accommodative? 0:02:30.840 --> 0:02:32.600 What do we need for this economy that we have? 0:02:32.960 --> 0:02:37.080 Because inflation has come from here down to here, and 0:02:37.120 --> 0:02:40.120 it's still on that downward trajectory. If you look at 0:02:40.120 --> 0:02:43.560 the three month annualized rate of course CPI and the 0:02:43.639 --> 0:02:46.040 expectation on where a core PC is going to be, 0:02:46.120 --> 0:02:50.000 there's sub two percent. So inflation has come down a lot. 0:02:50.240 --> 0:02:53.520 You're hearing from a lot of the retail marketers. They're 0:02:53.560 --> 0:02:58.160 announcing earnings, there's some consumer pushback on pricing. They're choosier 0:02:58.240 --> 0:03:01.120 about what they're spending on, and that's it the top line. 0:03:01.240 --> 0:03:04.120 So inflation is coming down. You look at the labor market, 0:03:04.320 --> 0:03:09.000 slack has been created. We've got unemployment up at four 0:03:09.040 --> 0:03:11.800 point three percent, we're not at three point four percent. 0:03:12.200 --> 0:03:15.560 You look at wages, Wages dropped from three point nine 0:03:15.560 --> 0:03:17.880 percent year every year to three point six percent year 0:03:17.919 --> 0:03:21.520 every year. If you leave restrictive rates at the level 0:03:21.560 --> 0:03:26.200 they're at currently, then that worsens the labor market, and 0:03:26.240 --> 0:03:29.320 then you've got not a problem with inflation, but the 0:03:29.360 --> 0:03:33.120 pace of disinflation. You've got to start relieving the pressure 0:03:33.120 --> 0:03:34.639 on businesses and households. 0:03:34.920 --> 0:03:36.400 Why do you think that we haven't seen a more 0:03:36.400 --> 0:03:39.600 aggressive slow down then? If this really is because of 0:03:39.720 --> 0:03:41.600 the rates? And I ask this because I was looking 0:03:41.880 --> 0:03:45.920 at data compiled by Evercore, isis Julian and Manuel showing 0:03:45.960 --> 0:03:48.320 that you're seeing the S and P five hundred and 0:03:48.360 --> 0:03:50.920 second quarter a year over year earnings per share growth 0:03:50.960 --> 0:03:54.880 at ten percent, You're seeing profit margins that are expanding. 0:03:54.920 --> 0:03:57.840 How does this scream a market that's on the brink 0:03:57.840 --> 0:03:59.680 of falling off if you don't get those rate cuts 0:03:59.680 --> 0:04:00.760 that are significant. 0:04:01.480 --> 0:04:04.680 Well, there's still a lot of money sloshing around in 0:04:04.680 --> 0:04:08.120 the system. What I'm talking about is slowing down to 0:04:08.280 --> 0:04:13.920 trend and then bringing policy in line with stabilizing growth 0:04:13.920 --> 0:04:18.360 and inflation around trend. What Julian's talking about is, hey, 0:04:18.600 --> 0:04:22.320 there's still a lot of economic activity out there. He's right. 0:04:22.480 --> 0:04:25.080 I was listening to Mary Powell earlier from sun Roun 0:04:25.400 --> 0:04:30.120 she's talking about everyone accessing the wonderfully named Inflation Reduction 0:04:30.279 --> 0:04:34.040 Act to spend and invest in solar. There's all that 0:04:34.120 --> 0:04:38.160 money still in the system. It is creating an underlying 0:04:38.240 --> 0:04:42.400 level of economic activity. It's probably one of the things 0:04:42.440 --> 0:04:46.480 you need to ensure that a soft landing actually occurs 0:04:46.480 --> 0:04:47.920 and you don't have recession. 0:04:48.200 --> 0:04:51.000 So you said that Jay Powell should both do nothing 0:04:51.040 --> 0:04:54.039 but also should sort of telegraph some kind of path 0:04:54.240 --> 0:04:56.040 ahead in the Jacksonville. 0:04:55.520 --> 0:04:57.480 That's what I want. I want a very clear road, 0:04:57.520 --> 0:04:58.000 all right. 0:04:57.880 --> 0:04:59.200 So you want to clear them map, but you don't 0:04:59.200 --> 0:05:01.360 expect him to do it because there's absolutely no advantage 0:05:01.360 --> 0:05:03.880 to him doing that. Okay, So what do you think 0:05:03.960 --> 0:05:05.920 actually could be the roadmap beyond this year that you 0:05:05.920 --> 0:05:07.880 could give with any clarity, Given the fact that you're 0:05:07.880 --> 0:05:11.400 talking about some of that income that people received that 0:05:11.440 --> 0:05:14.320 has helped fuel some of the price inflation, that could 0:05:14.480 --> 0:05:17.000 reprise itself next year depending on some of the policies 0:05:17.000 --> 0:05:18.600 that may or may not be fact that we're hearing 0:05:18.640 --> 0:05:19.560 from both candidates. 0:05:19.800 --> 0:05:23.919 Well, that keeps a twenty seven trillion dollar economy operating 0:05:24.000 --> 0:05:27.800 at twenty seven trillion dollars. That's okay, But how do 0:05:27.880 --> 0:05:31.440 you start building some real growth upon that. You need 0:05:31.480 --> 0:05:37.520 the housing market to reignite again. Clearly there's demand for housing. 0:05:37.600 --> 0:05:40.279 There's a three to four million unit housing shortage in 0:05:40.320 --> 0:05:44.280 the US. You bring down rates, it pulls down mortgage rates. 0:05:44.680 --> 0:05:48.120 That suddenly makes housing affordable again, and you get the 0:05:48.160 --> 0:05:50.280 first time buyers to step in there and all the 0:05:50.279 --> 0:05:53.120 things that you talk about, building decks and stuff like 0:05:53.160 --> 0:05:57.520 that begins to happen. So it's one of the things 0:05:57.600 --> 0:06:00.839 that bringing rates down actually does. It's not that a 0:06:01.000 --> 0:06:04.719 quarter fifty basis point cut doesn't do anything. It actually 0:06:04.920 --> 0:06:08.360 does a lot. A lot of businesses and households fund 0:06:08.440 --> 0:06:10.599 themselves off of the floating rate market. 0:06:10.760 --> 0:06:12.560 Well, when it comes to housing, what about twenty five 0:06:12.600 --> 0:06:15.160 thousand dollars for new homeowners? Also in what you love 0:06:15.240 --> 0:06:18.240 to hear this week but unlikely, is a detailed economic 0:06:18.279 --> 0:06:19.360 plan from Kamala Harris. 0:06:19.560 --> 0:06:20.960 What do you make of what we heard so far? 0:06:23.160 --> 0:06:26.159 I think the DNC is in the same position as 0:06:26.160 --> 0:06:29.480 the FED. The data has come their way in a 0:06:29.520 --> 0:06:32.720 big way and they're well ahead in the polls. So 0:06:33.279 --> 0:06:36.599 just get through this conference with a lot of platitudes 0:06:36.800 --> 0:06:40.000 and euphoria and take that momentum. I don't think we're 0:06:40.040 --> 0:06:44.360 going to see a detailed economic agenda. I think twenty 0:06:44.400 --> 0:06:48.120 five thousand housing credit, it's a great idea. Who ends 0:06:48.160 --> 0:06:50.880 up paying that bill? Does it just get sent to 0:06:50.920 --> 0:06:54.720 the Treasury and there's more funding that comes out? Probably? 0:06:54.839 --> 0:06:57.000 Will it ever get through a split Congress? 0:06:57.160 --> 0:06:59.400 Maybe not. We don't have detailed proposals. 0:06:59.400 --> 0:07:02.839 But he is basically running on the Biden platform and 0:07:02.839 --> 0:07:06.240 Trump was already president before they are incumbents. How do 0:07:06.279 --> 0:07:08.280 you think about twenty twenty five when you think about 0:07:08.279 --> 0:07:10.400 these two individuals potentially being in the White House. 0:07:11.880 --> 0:07:17.880 I think we've gone through periods where the administration has 0:07:17.960 --> 0:07:20.440 had very clear views on what they've want to do. 0:07:21.000 --> 0:07:23.560 But if you have a split Congress, they've got a 0:07:23.640 --> 0:07:28.000 very different mindset and it's very difficult to get legislation through. 0:07:28.360 --> 0:07:32.400 So I think the real focus should be looking at Congress, 0:07:32.480 --> 0:07:35.119 looking at the House, looking at the Senate, and seeing 0:07:35.160 --> 0:07:36.400 how those elections go. 0:07:36.680 --> 0:07:37.840 Let's work through your calls. 0:07:37.920 --> 0:07:41.000 Just to wrap it up, long duration, curve, steepness, stay 0:07:41.000 --> 0:07:42.960 overweight credit. I just want to pick up on the 0:07:43.040 --> 0:07:45.560 duration point. Explore this with Calsie Barrow yesterday. I want 0:07:45.560 --> 0:07:48.280 an idea from you on where you think yields are 0:07:48.320 --> 0:07:51.120 heading this time next year, What kind of yield curve 0:07:51.320 --> 0:07:52.800 are we going to be looking at, What kind of 0:07:52.880 --> 0:07:54.640 numbers are along the bondom? 0:07:54.760 --> 0:07:55.560 What are you looking for? 0:07:56.280 --> 0:08:01.440 So intuitively, I want to say where yields are today? 0:08:01.560 --> 0:08:03.760 The FED has to bring rates down to three and 0:08:03.760 --> 0:08:07.960 a half percent. That's two hundred basis points. That's a lot. 0:08:08.280 --> 0:08:11.800 That's pretty normal in a cutting cycle, and cutting cycles 0:08:12.120 --> 0:08:15.200 are usually coincident with recession. We don't see a recession, 0:08:15.600 --> 0:08:17.760 but a three and a half percent FED funds rate 0:08:17.880 --> 0:08:20.800 is one and a half real That seems to be 0:08:20.840 --> 0:08:23.440 a fair level in the curse price for that. Then 0:08:23.480 --> 0:08:26.720 I look at all the money still sitting in cash 0:08:26.760 --> 0:08:30.360 that's out there. I think of every single client conversation 0:08:30.440 --> 0:08:33.640 I have every day. It doesn't matter if it's institutional 0:08:34.040 --> 0:08:36.559 or it's in a wealth management platform. It doesn't matter 0:08:36.600 --> 0:08:40.840 if it's domestic or international. Everyone is looking for a 0:08:40.920 --> 0:08:44.760 way to get into the bond market and frustrated beyond 0:08:44.800 --> 0:08:47.920 belief because they never got to buy it. Yields a 0:08:47.960 --> 0:08:51.400 five to six percent, and once rates start coming down 0:08:51.920 --> 0:08:55.760 and money market fund returns start to drift lower, that 0:08:55.840 --> 0:08:59.000 money will come in, and that money's not thinking about, Oh, 0:08:59.040 --> 0:09:01.800 I want to buy the ten year, I want to 0:09:01.840 --> 0:09:05.800 put on a two ten steepener or flattener. The market's thinking. 0:09:06.000 --> 0:09:08.120 Put me in an aggregate bond fund. Put me in 0:09:08.160 --> 0:09:10.880 a general muni bond fund. Do you have an income fund? Okay, 0:09:10.920 --> 0:09:13.640 put me in there. What kind of ETF do you have? 0:09:13.720 --> 0:09:16.520 Do you have a core plus etf? Put me in there, 0:09:16.559 --> 0:09:19.200 And that money comes into the market in a big way, 0:09:19.800 --> 0:09:23.400 And asset managers may sit there and say, oh, you know, 0:09:23.520 --> 0:09:27.000 yields are a little rich. I'm going to be underweight 0:09:27.080 --> 0:09:29.240 duration by a quarter of a year. So they're still 0:09:29.240 --> 0:09:31.880 buying six years of duration. They're under by a quarter 0:09:31.920 --> 0:09:33.880 of a year. And that money's coming in, So I 0:09:33.920 --> 0:09:36.720 wear yields could get down to three percent. 0:09:36.520 --> 0:09:37.160 Or even lower. 0:09:37.280 --> 0:09:41.200 Three point zero yep, three point zero on tens on tens. 0:09:41.440 --> 0:09:42.520 Is that process started. 0:09:44.720 --> 0:09:50.880 It's started in just the tiniest drip of ways, which 0:09:51.120 --> 0:09:54.839 I've always turned around, said look where yields are, and 0:09:55.480 --> 0:09:58.080 everyone's telling you, oh, we don't like them. Here, we 0:09:58.120 --> 0:09:58.679 don't like them. 0:09:58.720 --> 0:09:58.880 Here. 0:09:58.920 --> 0:10:01.480 Look how far through the fed funds radar. Look how 0:10:01.559 --> 0:10:05.040 cozy it is at five and a half percent in cash, 0:10:05.320 --> 0:10:08.680 then who the heck is buying to take the entire 0:10:08.800 --> 0:10:11.959 yal curve down through four percent. There's a lot of 0:10:12.080 --> 0:10:15.200 buying of money that's leaking in, but it is not 0:10:15.480 --> 0:10:18.240 come in in earnest. That process hasn't started. 0:10:18.520 --> 0:10:18.840 Bob. 0:10:19.240 --> 0:10:21.079 This was fun, Thank you, sir. Going to catch you. 0:10:21.160 --> 0:10:22.080 Appreciate it, Bob, Michael. 0:10:22.080 --> 0:10:24.720 There JP Morgan as a management with some very interesting 0:10:24.760 --> 0:10:27.720 cause on what isn't happening and will happen in fixed 0:10:27.760 --> 0:10:28.440 income over. 0:10:28.320 --> 0:10:29.080 The next year or so. 0:10:38.760 --> 0:10:42.080 Vice President Kamala Harris looking to rebrand Bidyomics as she 0:10:42.120 --> 0:10:46.360 develops her own economic policy, zeroing in on the middle class. 0:10:46.600 --> 0:10:49.640 She's pledging to expand caps on prescription drug casts, revamp 0:10:49.720 --> 0:10:53.280 child tax credits, and eliminate price scout chick. Mike Pile, 0:10:53.400 --> 0:10:57.840 a former Biden Administration Deputy National Security Advisor for International Economics, 0:10:57.920 --> 0:11:00.959 is currently an economic advisor for Kamala Harris and joined 0:11:01.000 --> 0:11:02.280 US now. Mike is going to see you, sir. 0:11:02.480 --> 0:11:03.000 Great to be here. 0:11:03.080 --> 0:11:05.360 Black Rock also worked in the Vice President's office, so 0:11:05.400 --> 0:11:07.920 you're an experienced guy to ask this first question too. 0:11:08.360 --> 0:11:11.240 There are already some laws around price gouging, particularly at 0:11:11.240 --> 0:11:13.880 the state level across this country. What would a Harris 0:11:13.880 --> 0:11:16.480 administration look to achieve that we don't already have. 0:11:17.160 --> 0:11:19.800 Yes, I think you're right to point to those state laws. 0:11:19.840 --> 0:11:22.319 I think if you look at the principles that the 0:11:22.400 --> 0:11:25.400 Vice president's thinking about when she thinks about it in 0:11:25.400 --> 0:11:27.520 an action like this, you know there are a few. 0:11:27.840 --> 0:11:29.920 You know, One, this has got to be focused on 0:11:30.000 --> 0:11:34.959 the food and grocery industry. Two, this is really about emergencies. 0:11:35.000 --> 0:11:39.200 This is about very acute moments of dislocation, like after 0:11:39.200 --> 0:11:40.680 a hurricane or natural disaster. 0:11:40.920 --> 0:11:41.160 Three. 0:11:41.600 --> 0:11:44.079 Going to build off of those state laws. There are 0:11:44.160 --> 0:11:46.920 forty state laws on the books that go to price 0:11:47.000 --> 0:11:51.320 gouging and emergency situations, Red and blue states alike. That's 0:11:51.360 --> 0:11:53.920 going to be a model for her. You know, she's 0:11:53.960 --> 0:11:57.120 also really focused on bad actors, nefarious actions. 0:11:57.160 --> 0:11:58.600 This is not price controls. 0:11:58.640 --> 0:12:02.800 There is no preset metric or other kind of quantitative 0:12:02.800 --> 0:12:03.640 target she's looking at. 0:12:03.679 --> 0:12:04.760 It's really bad action. 0:12:05.160 --> 0:12:08.640 And lastly, she recognizes that the food industry in general 0:12:08.679 --> 0:12:10.640 is one that needs more competition, and she's going to 0:12:10.679 --> 0:12:13.319 work hard to spur small providers both of food and 0:12:13.400 --> 0:12:15.240 groceries to really work on that competition. 0:12:15.280 --> 0:12:17.200 All let's unpack some of that piece by pace we 0:12:17.200 --> 0:12:18.880 can get into the industry and just the moment, I 0:12:18.880 --> 0:12:20.959 want to talk about the word emergency and how you 0:12:21.040 --> 0:12:24.600 defined it. Would you define the pandemic as an emergency? 0:12:25.080 --> 0:12:27.000 And at what point did the pandemic start and at 0:12:27.000 --> 0:12:28.439 what point did it end? Because I'm just trying to 0:12:28.440 --> 0:12:30.760 work out how this rule might be applied, how people 0:12:30.800 --> 0:12:32.679 might define things going forward. 0:12:32.920 --> 0:12:36.160 Yeah, I mean, I think that the type of emergency 0:12:36.200 --> 0:12:38.120 that we have in mind is much more like an 0:12:38.120 --> 0:12:42.439 acute natural disaster. I think, much more like hurricane, earthquake, 0:12:42.480 --> 0:12:46.280 a very acute dislocation. Obviously, the pandemic at some level 0:12:46.360 --> 0:12:49.720 was everything for two or three years. That's very different 0:12:49.800 --> 0:12:52.800 than a very acute dislocation on the back of a 0:12:52.880 --> 0:12:53.600 natural disaster. 0:12:54.040 --> 0:12:56.560 Does do you or the Vice president right now see 0:12:56.559 --> 0:12:58.200 companies that are price gouging? 0:12:58.960 --> 0:13:01.040 So yeah, I think, like I said, I don't really 0:13:01.040 --> 0:13:03.520 think there are emergency conditions out there. So I think 0:13:03.520 --> 0:13:05.559 it's very hard to say that this is anything that 0:13:05.559 --> 0:13:07.760 would apply in the here and now. I think she 0:13:07.880 --> 0:13:11.160 does look at the food and end grocery industry or at large, 0:13:11.440 --> 0:13:14.120 sees one that in particular places has a good deal 0:13:14.160 --> 0:13:17.160 of concentration, and I think as a result, is really 0:13:17.200 --> 0:13:20.839 focused on spurring competition more broadly, including like I said, 0:13:20.880 --> 0:13:24.640 with small providers both on the agriculture and and grocery side. 0:13:24.760 --> 0:13:28.080 If we can spur more competitions, spur more supply, that's 0:13:28.080 --> 0:13:30.920 going to lead to lower prices for consumers. But that's 0:13:31.040 --> 0:13:34.320 different than going after our bad actors in the course 0:13:34.360 --> 0:13:35.160 of an emergency. 0:13:35.240 --> 0:13:38.120 Speaking of competition, there's a debate within the Democratic Party, 0:13:38.200 --> 0:13:43.120 especially the donor class and the progressives about this exact thing, competition, 0:13:43.200 --> 0:13:45.640 anti trust and whether or not Lena Khan should still 0:13:45.640 --> 0:13:47.760 be the head of the FTC under a Harris administration. 0:13:48.280 --> 0:13:50.920 Where is Kamala Harris the Vice president on that right now? 0:13:51.200 --> 0:13:54.080 So where the vice president is focused over the next 0:13:54.120 --> 0:13:58.040 seventy eight days on unifying the Democratic Party and beating 0:13:58.080 --> 0:13:58.720 Donald Trump. 0:13:58.800 --> 0:14:00.560 That is her core focus. 0:14:00.720 --> 0:14:03.240 I think, you know, she, alongside the president, over the 0:14:03.320 --> 0:14:06.120 last three and a half years, has built a governing 0:14:06.200 --> 0:14:09.120 record across a whole range of issues. She's proud of 0:14:09.160 --> 0:14:12.360 that record, but right now her focus is on prosecuting 0:14:12.400 --> 0:14:13.719 the case for the next seventy eight days. 0:14:13.840 --> 0:14:14.760 Let's talk about the record. 0:14:14.880 --> 0:14:17.679 You briefed her every day as her economic advisor when 0:14:17.679 --> 0:14:19.680 she was vice president before you moved to the west wing. 0:14:20.080 --> 0:14:22.560 At one point, when she was running to be president 0:14:23.200 --> 0:14:25.280 in the primary, she was against racking. Now she says 0:14:25.320 --> 0:14:28.360 she's not healthcare. At one point she's supported to eliminate 0:14:28.400 --> 0:14:30.800 private health insurance. She says she's not. Do you know 0:14:30.840 --> 0:14:32.880 which Kamala Harris we are going to get if she 0:14:32.920 --> 0:14:34.480 becomes president again? 0:14:34.520 --> 0:14:36.720 I would say she has built a three and a 0:14:36.760 --> 0:14:40.240 half year governing track record with the president. If you 0:14:40.280 --> 0:14:43.040 look at issue after issue after issue, she and the 0:14:43.080 --> 0:14:45.880 president have made choices to advance the interests of the 0:14:45.920 --> 0:14:49.880 middle class, to advance the interests of working people in 0:14:49.920 --> 0:14:52.360 this country. I'd say, you know, look at the record 0:14:52.400 --> 0:14:54.920 she's built has vice president sitting in office for the 0:14:55.000 --> 0:14:57.400 last three and a half years. That's the starting point 0:14:57.400 --> 0:14:59.360 for how you should think about how the vice president 0:14:59.400 --> 0:15:00.640 would govern wud she's president. 0:15:00.840 --> 0:15:03.320 There's a question about the feasibility of some of the proposals. 0:15:03.400 --> 0:15:05.480 I'm thinking in particular about the housing market and the 0:15:05.520 --> 0:15:08.040 twenty five thousand dollars subsidies for people to be able 0:15:08.040 --> 0:15:11.160 to make a down payment, as well as adding three 0:15:11.200 --> 0:15:14.840 million homes. A question of whether you can do that 0:15:14.880 --> 0:15:16.680 in such a way that giving money to people for 0:15:16.760 --> 0:15:19.920 down payments won't just prop up prices and lead to 0:15:20.040 --> 0:15:23.320 less affordability. How do you sort of square that circle? 0:15:23.880 --> 0:15:26.160 Yeah, I think the most important thing that you heard 0:15:26.240 --> 0:15:30.000 the Vice President talk about with respect to housing affordability 0:15:30.080 --> 0:15:33.280 is saying, we've got a crisis of building in this country. 0:15:33.320 --> 0:15:36.360 We've got to get more units built. We need to 0:15:36.360 --> 0:15:39.000 be ambitious with respect to what we're going to target 0:15:39.040 --> 0:15:43.720 in terms of eliminating that affordable housing construction gap. And 0:15:44.120 --> 0:15:47.760 we're going to work with builders and developers across the 0:15:47.760 --> 0:15:49.440 country to get units built. We're going to work with 0:15:49.440 --> 0:15:52.200 state and the whole governments to knock down barriers to 0:15:52.320 --> 0:15:55.120 construction to get units built. That is the center of 0:15:55.160 --> 0:15:58.520 her vision. She also recognizes that as we do that, 0:15:58.920 --> 0:16:00.880 it takes time to get tracked, It takes time to 0:16:00.880 --> 0:16:03.920 get momentum, It takes time to get things built, and 0:16:03.960 --> 0:16:06.800 in the meantime, people are still suffering, are still feeling 0:16:06.800 --> 0:16:11.280 that pinch of housing affordability, and something like a buyer's 0:16:11.360 --> 0:16:14.520 credit can make a difference for household struggling to reach 0:16:14.560 --> 0:16:15.160 the middle class. 0:16:15.160 --> 0:16:16.880 In the meantime, while supply ramps up. 0:16:16.960 --> 0:16:19.320 I guess that one question that people have is what 0:16:19.360 --> 0:16:22.920 we saw during the pandemic, was it some of the subsidies, 0:16:22.920 --> 0:16:24.920 some of the money that was sent to people was 0:16:24.960 --> 0:16:28.040 done before some of the products were brought online, which 0:16:28.040 --> 0:16:30.080 is part of the reason why we saw the surgeon inflation. 0:16:30.920 --> 0:16:32.920 How do you sort of get ahead of that type 0:16:33.040 --> 0:16:37.120 of response, given that we've seen the difficulty in building 0:16:37.160 --> 0:16:40.320 homes consistently, the red tape, etc. It just takes time, 0:16:40.640 --> 0:16:42.600 not to mention the lumber costs as well as getting 0:16:42.680 --> 0:16:43.960 enough people to build the homes. 0:16:44.520 --> 0:16:46.560 Yeah again, I mean, I think that's why it was 0:16:46.600 --> 0:16:49.200 so important that you heard the Vice President putting the 0:16:49.280 --> 0:16:53.320 supply story at the beginning of the story of housing affordability. 0:16:53.360 --> 0:16:57.120 I think she's laser focused on recognizing there are barriers 0:16:57.320 --> 0:17:00.520 across this country, Blue states and red states alive to 0:17:00.640 --> 0:17:04.399 getting things built. And whether it's new initiatives to help 0:17:04.800 --> 0:17:08.040 builders and developers work alongside the federal government to get 0:17:08.040 --> 0:17:11.200 things built, whether that's working with statele governments to punch 0:17:11.240 --> 0:17:13.440 through red tape, that's going to be your focus because 0:17:13.440 --> 0:17:16.679 she recognizes that's the key to affordability, and it's going 0:17:16.720 --> 0:17:19.040 to take time and focused energy to get that done. 0:17:19.200 --> 0:17:21.640 Just to Stan on Lisa's line of questioning, Ultimately, there's 0:17:21.640 --> 0:17:24.640 a duration mismatch here between how quickly you can stimulate 0:17:24.640 --> 0:17:27.720 demand and how quickly you can address supply. Will we 0:17:27.800 --> 0:17:30.040 just have to tolerate higher prices in the meantime? Is 0:17:30.080 --> 0:17:31.919 that basically what we're going to see? Isn't that the 0:17:31.920 --> 0:17:33.000 outcome of all of this? 0:17:33.720 --> 0:17:36.720 So I think that these things are meant to work 0:17:36.760 --> 0:17:40.119 in parallel with one another. That supply is going to 0:17:40.200 --> 0:17:42.439 ramp up or going to get traction, There's going to 0:17:42.440 --> 0:17:44.200 be a lot of focus there. At the same time, 0:17:44.359 --> 0:17:47.440 there's a crisis today. Working in middle class families need 0:17:47.480 --> 0:17:50.440 support today, and the Vice President's proposed a way to 0:17:50.800 --> 0:17:51.680 do exactly that. 0:17:51.880 --> 0:17:54.440 We talk about taxes, Sure, what's a good corporate tax 0:17:54.480 --> 0:17:55.280 right for this country? 0:17:55.720 --> 0:17:58.160 I think you saw the Vice president embrace the Biden 0:17:58.200 --> 0:18:03.720 Harris proposal. Twenty percent is the proposal that the Vice 0:18:03.760 --> 0:18:06.760 President supported, alongside what she and the President have already proposed. 0:18:06.840 --> 0:18:08.399 So we move up to twenty eight Is she in 0:18:08.440 --> 0:18:10.520 line with Biden as well on what he would have 0:18:10.560 --> 0:18:12.480 done with the taxes that are set to expire, the 0:18:12.520 --> 0:18:14.640 tax cuts that expire in twenty twenty five. 0:18:15.160 --> 0:18:17.560 Yeah, I think that if you look at if you 0:18:17.600 --> 0:18:19.840 look at the Biden Harris budget, you see a range 0:18:19.880 --> 0:18:22.200 of tax proposals, you see a range of investments, you 0:18:22.240 --> 0:18:26.200 see a range of principles around how the TCGA expiration 0:18:26.280 --> 0:18:29.119 should be handled. And that's something that has a governing 0:18:29.160 --> 0:18:32.440 partner to the President. That the Vice President has embraced. 0:18:32.160 --> 0:18:34.119 Is the deficit and ongoing concern for you and the team. 0:18:34.480 --> 0:18:36.240 I mean, I think you heard from the Vice President 0:18:36.240 --> 0:18:39.200 herself on Friday when she gave her speech. She pointed 0:18:39.200 --> 0:18:42.200 to the fact that when you look at the Trump 0:18:43.000 --> 0:18:47.640 campaign playbook, it's extending and deepening tax cuts for corporations 0:18:47.640 --> 0:18:50.439 in the wealthiest. It is not fully offsetting those with 0:18:50.480 --> 0:18:53.920 a set of sales taxes on imported goods that will 0:18:54.160 --> 0:18:56.679 hurt working families, and as a result, that's going to 0:18:56.920 --> 0:18:59.080 increase and blow up the deficit. On the flip side, 0:18:59.119 --> 0:19:01.080 if you look at the Biden Hair Ferris budget, there 0:19:01.200 --> 0:19:04.680 is net deficit reduction alongside the investments in the middle class, 0:19:05.000 --> 0:19:08.320 and she continues to believe that deficit reduction needs to 0:19:08.359 --> 0:19:09.800 be an important part of the pitch. 0:19:09.840 --> 0:19:11.720 We've run out of ton and we've only scratched the surface. 0:19:11.760 --> 0:19:13.840 Do you think that the Vice president would sit down 0:19:13.880 --> 0:19:16.440 with Bloomberg TV and actually have a conversation about the economy, 0:19:16.480 --> 0:19:17.920 because we'd like to make that happen. 0:19:18.280 --> 0:19:20.960 I think that the Vice President looks to go meet 0:19:21.040 --> 0:19:23.959 voters wherever she can meet them, and there's a lot 0:19:23.960 --> 0:19:25.359 of constraints center time over the next sev of the 0:19:25.359 --> 0:19:27.000 eight days, but she wants to go where the voters are. 0:19:27.160 --> 0:19:29.600 Got to make one interview happen might come on Mike Pile, 0:19:29.720 --> 0:19:42.520 economic advisor to Vice President Kamala Harris. Let's turn to 0:19:42.680 --> 0:19:45.400