WEBVTT - Senate Votes to Advance Kavanaugh for Final Vote

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<v Speaker 1>Welcome to the Bloomberg Law Podcast. I'm June Grosso. Every

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<v Speaker 1>day we bring you insight and analysis into the most

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<v Speaker 1>important legal news of the day. You can find more

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<v Speaker 1>episodes of the Bloomberg Law Podcast on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud,

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<v Speaker 1>and on Bloomberg dot com slash podcasts. The Senate is

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<v Speaker 1>set for a final vote on the nomination of our

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<v Speaker 1>Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court, as Democrats continue to complain

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<v Speaker 1>about the scope of the FBI investigation into sexual assault

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<v Speaker 1>charges against Kavanaugh. Speaking with reporters yesterday, Senate Judiciary Committee

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<v Speaker 1>Chairman Chuck Grassley remained confident in Kavanaugh's confirmation. I feel

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<v Speaker 1>very good about where this nomination is right now. Now.

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<v Speaker 1>I don't say that from the standpoint of counting votes.

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<v Speaker 1>I say that from the standpoint of the qualifications of

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<v Speaker 1>this candidate. With us here now in the Bloomberg nine

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<v Speaker 1>studio is Greg Store, Bloomberg News is Crack Supreme Court reporter,

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<v Speaker 1>and we're going to talk about what just happened a

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<v Speaker 1>moment ago on the Senate floor. Maybe you can explain

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<v Speaker 1>to our listeners, you know it was. It's called the

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<v Speaker 1>procedural vote, a key vote, a test vote, a culture vote.

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<v Speaker 1>But what really just happened there, Well, technically, what that

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<v Speaker 1>does is it means that they can go ahead with

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<v Speaker 1>the final vote. Uh. The senators cast votes that may

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<v Speaker 1>or may not give indications of what they're gonna do

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<v Speaker 1>on the final vote. It means that we will know,

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<v Speaker 1>uh tomorrow whether Brett Kavanaugh is a Supreme Court justice,

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<v Speaker 1>but we don't know for sure how that vote is

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<v Speaker 1>going to come out. And I was struck to see

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<v Speaker 1>just how some of these key centrist Republicans did. Senator

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<v Speaker 1>Jeff Flake, the retiring senator from Arizona, was a yes

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<v Speaker 1>on cloture. Senator Susan Collins, another key centrist Republican from Maine,

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<v Speaker 1>also a yes, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska voting no. And then,

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<v Speaker 1>of course the big shocker. There were literally gasps on

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<v Speaker 1>the floor reportedly of the Senate when Senator Joe mentioned

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<v Speaker 1>a centrist Democrat from West Virginia, in a state greg

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<v Speaker 1>that candidate Donald Trump carried by forty two percentage points,

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<v Speaker 1>voted yes. He voted with Republicans to advance this, but

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<v Speaker 1>as you mentioned, he very well could vote yes on

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<v Speaker 1>culture and no for final passage. Right, That's exactly right,

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<v Speaker 1>and One possibility is that Senator Mansion could wait to

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<v Speaker 1>see which way the wind is blowing and in particular,

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<v Speaker 1>which way Susan Collins votes. So Lisa Murkowski, I should say,

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<v Speaker 1>just told reporters, big scrum of them, just said quote.

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<v Speaker 1>In my view, he's not the best man for the

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<v Speaker 1>court at this time. So she has indicated she is

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<v Speaker 1>going to vote no on final confirmation. What that means

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<v Speaker 1>is it's down to three senators we don't know about

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<v Speaker 1>for sure, Flake, Collins, Uh and Mansion. If Flake votes yes,

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<v Speaker 1>then it's up to Susan Collins and Joe Mansion may

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<v Speaker 1>may follow her one way or the other. NBC News

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<v Speaker 1>is reporting the Flake is telling them that he plans

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<v Speaker 1>to vote yes on final confirmation. So if that story

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<v Speaker 1>holds up, we will will really just be down to

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<v Speaker 1>Collins and Mansion. I think this is one of the

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<v Speaker 1>more bizarre rituals of Washington, where you have a a

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<v Speaker 1>what seems like a vote of the United States Senate

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<v Speaker 1>that Wine and Brett Havana's favor, and yet still we

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<v Speaker 1>don't actually know the final outcome. So explain why people

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<v Speaker 1>vote yes on cloture and can still vote no on

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<v Speaker 1>the final Well, there there is a notion that some

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<v Speaker 1>Senators still carry that a nominee deserves a vote. So

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<v Speaker 1>one could imagine Susan Collins, for example, taking the position

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<v Speaker 1>that I believe he deserves a vote, and I'm going

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<v Speaker 1>to vote no. We don't know that's how how she's

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<v Speaker 1>going to come out, but that's at least um a

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<v Speaker 1>possibility for how it will happen. And of course this

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<v Speaker 1>all happens against the backdrop of up until the nomination

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<v Speaker 1>of Neil gorcich Uh, there was the ability to filibuster

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<v Speaker 1>a Supreme Court nominee, meaning you had to have sixty

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<v Speaker 1>votes to get to the next stage. You know what

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<v Speaker 1>I find fascinating is just really how much of a

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<v Speaker 1>local issue this has become for each of these senators.

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<v Speaker 1>Senator Susan Collins is not up for reelection until twenty

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<v Speaker 1>but she faces potentially a challenger from the right. Up there,

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<v Speaker 1>Governor Lapage, who's a staunch ally of the presidents and

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<v Speaker 1>has been for quite some time. The President's son Don Junior,

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<v Speaker 1>campaigning at a main Republican fundraiser over the weekend with

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<v Speaker 1>Governor Lapage. Then you look at someone like Senator Mansion,

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<v Speaker 1>where those polls have tightened increasingly, and he of course,

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<v Speaker 1>being a centrist Democrat, this is fascinating. More nationally speaking,

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<v Speaker 1>in particular, the NPRPBS News Hour poll that came out

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<v Speaker 1>earlier this week found the enthusiasm gap evaporate in terms

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<v Speaker 1>of Democrats and Republicans. Talk to me, Greg about just

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<v Speaker 1>how much how unique this vote has become for this

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<v Speaker 1>cultural moment in the US that we're just you know,

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<v Speaker 1>over a day away from finding out what will happen. Yeah, Kevin,

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<v Speaker 1>as you said, Uh, this is a highly unusual, if

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<v Speaker 1>not really the first time in history that we've had

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<v Speaker 1>a vote so big on a Supreme Court nominee right

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<v Speaker 1>before an election. So uh, those uh, those those views

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<v Speaker 1>that you just talked about are going to matter when

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<v Speaker 1>people go out to vote for for against Joe Mansion. Uh,

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<v Speaker 1>in just a few weeks. With Susan Collins, it's a

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<v Speaker 1>little bit of a different calculation. Uh, you know, two

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<v Speaker 1>years is a long time. Uh, this issue will fade

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<v Speaker 1>from the headlines. People may have moved on to other things.

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<v Speaker 1>But she has to weigh the risk that people are

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<v Speaker 1>going to remember how she voted here and it could

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<v Speaker 1>come back to bite her. So Greg we have one

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<v Speaker 1>of the we have one of the best Supreme Court

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<v Speaker 1>reporters in Washington, d C. I'll brag about you for you.

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<v Speaker 1>And to be a crime to only talk about politics.

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<v Speaker 1>Let's talk about the court itself. Um, people talk about

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<v Speaker 1>Brett Kavanaugh cementing a conservative majority on this court for

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<v Speaker 1>a generation. He's he's only in his fifties. He could

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<v Speaker 1>serve on their twenty thirty years easily taught. Let's put

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<v Speaker 1>let's put ourselves on a time machine and pretend that

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<v Speaker 1>he has just been confirmed to the United States Supreme Court.

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<v Speaker 1>What is your story about that? Say? What does this

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<v Speaker 1>historical moment for the court mean going forward? Well? Uh,

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<v Speaker 1>as he said, this is a turning point for the court.

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<v Speaker 1>We're gonna end up with most likely the most conservative

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<v Speaker 1>court we've had in eighty years since since the New Deal,

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<v Speaker 1>the Court is unquestionably going to move to the right

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<v Speaker 1>on big issues like abortion, affirmative action, federal regulation, the

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<v Speaker 1>power of the president, and really the key factor is

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<v Speaker 1>going to be how quickly Chief Justice John Roberts is

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<v Speaker 1>gonna want to go. He's a very conservative guy, conservative

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<v Speaker 1>justice who has consistently voted conservative, with one big exception

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<v Speaker 1>that being, uh, the Obamacare fight. But he's also somebody

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<v Speaker 1>who cares a lot about the Court's institutional standing. He

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<v Speaker 1>doesn't want the Court perceived as as a political entity. Uh.

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<v Speaker 1>That that is going to shift with the political winds

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<v Speaker 1>and shift based on the membership of the Court, which

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<v Speaker 1>might mean that uh he puts off the day where

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<v Speaker 1>the Court reconsiders Roe v. Wade, for example, and overturns

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<v Speaker 1>some other key precedents. But the Court is certainly going

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<v Speaker 1>to move to the right the I mean, I think

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<v Speaker 1>the other question a lot of people have is about

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<v Speaker 1>tempera minutes a word you're hearing a lot these days.

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<v Speaker 1>We all saw Bret Cavanaugh's testimony um last week emotional,

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<v Speaker 1>and I think would be a fair word to describe

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<v Speaker 1>it with just a few seconds that we have left

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<v Speaker 1>here talk about how the how he might fit in

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<v Speaker 1>to the current Supreme Court in that way, it will

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<v Speaker 1>be a challenge for both him and the other justices. Uh.

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<v Speaker 1>They know they have to work with each other. They

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<v Speaker 1>probably all have very strong feelings, but they're gonna be

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<v Speaker 1>there together for a long time. Thank you very much, Greg,

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<v Speaker 1>We really appreciate your your views on such a busy day.

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<v Speaker 1>We'rely from the Blueberg Interactive Broker studio, and last night,

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<v Speaker 1>President Trump addressed a crowd of supporters in Rochester, Minnesota,

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<v Speaker 1>hitting aggressively the campaign trail ahead of the midterm elections,

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<v Speaker 1>and he discussed the upcoming confirmation vote for Supreme Court

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<v Speaker 1>nominee Brett Cavanaugh, who just advanced out of culture. That

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<v Speaker 1>vote anticipated tomorrow, and in his comments, President Trump continued

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<v Speaker 1>to target Democrats. Take listen, they want to obstruct, they

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<v Speaker 1>want to delay, demoral, they want to destroy. That's what happens.

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<v Speaker 1>That's what happened. And just take a look at what's

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<v Speaker 1>going on. Democrats have been trying to destroy Judge Brett cabinet.

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<v Speaker 1>So there you have the President Trump taking this issue

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<v Speaker 1>to the campaign trail. Mike Dorning, Bloomberg News White House

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<v Speaker 1>Deputy team Leader joins us now and Mike, when you

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<v Speaker 1>look at the comments coming from President Trump about this

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<v Speaker 1>particular issue, he's really trying to rally the base around this. Now, yeah, absolutely,

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<v Speaker 1>And that's always a problem for the president's party going

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<v Speaker 1>into mid term elections, is how motivated is the base

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<v Speaker 1>once the president's in the White House. And here you

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<v Speaker 1>have a controversy that hits at a key issue for

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<v Speaker 1>conservative social Republicans who are the sort of the most

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<v Speaker 1>enthusiastic parts of the base, the Supreme Court nomination. And

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<v Speaker 1>he's using this and the polarization around this fight to

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<v Speaker 1>try to rev up his base to get it closer

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<v Speaker 1>to where the Democrats are. But I thought that, right,

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<v Speaker 1>the conventional wisdom was that a lot of women voters

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<v Speaker 1>in particular, would be very upset about the way of

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<v Speaker 1>our Kavanaugh. You know the testimony from the Professor Ford,

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<v Speaker 1>the Kavanaugh's rebuttal, you seem to be saying that Republicans

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<v Speaker 1>are starting to get a little bit of a bump

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<v Speaker 1>in their base. Explain that now there there's some signs

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<v Speaker 1>that they are getting a bump. The way the White

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<v Speaker 1>House views it is the Democratic base was already really

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<v Speaker 1>rebbed up, and women were already really revved up about

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<v Speaker 1>Trump to go out and vote against him. Now what

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<v Speaker 1>they're hoping to do is to bring up the enthusiasm

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<v Speaker 1>of their base so it's closer to where the Democratic

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<v Speaker 1>base is, and that, in theory, should even things out.

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<v Speaker 1>The downside risk is that this will the downside risk

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<v Speaker 1>for the Republican point of view is that this will

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<v Speaker 1>also rev up women. But their bet is that women

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<v Speaker 1>and Democrats are already so repped up that you're not

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<v Speaker 1>and to rev them up that much more. And should

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<v Speaker 1>Judge Kavanall ultimately get confirmed, and now we're playing the

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<v Speaker 1>should have his game, But should he get confirmed, would

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<v Speaker 1>that enthusiasm bump that we've seen from Republicans last because

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<v Speaker 1>thirty days in two thousand and eighteen, and President Trump's

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<v Speaker 1>political arena is an eternity. Right, My bed is it

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<v Speaker 1>would ebb some personally. But you do have some things

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<v Speaker 1>that would help that, which is, you're delivering two tangible

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<v Speaker 1>things close to the election. On the one hand, you

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<v Speaker 1>are delivering a fifth conservative Supreme Court vote, which shows

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<v Speaker 1>tangible results for social conservatives. And the other thing is

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<v Speaker 1>then NAFTA two point oh. Even though a lot of

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<v Speaker 1>people who look at this closely may sort of scoff

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<v Speaker 1>and say it's not that big a change from NAFTA,

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<v Speaker 1>it is nonetheless a trade deal that does change things,

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<v Speaker 1>that does renegotiate NAFTA, and it's done and it's delivered,

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<v Speaker 1>and that is something that is of importance to rust

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<v Speaker 1>belt voters and particularly some of the dairy voters in Minnesota.

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<v Speaker 1>So one of the oldest cliches in politics is turnout

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<v Speaker 1>is you know, really what matters? That really is doubly

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<v Speaker 1>true in a mid term election, and that's why we're

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<v Speaker 1>spending so much time talking about it right now, and

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<v Speaker 1>in the larger political conversation explained again why why has

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<v Speaker 1>turned out so important at this juncture? Well, the most

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<v Speaker 1>at its simplest is a vote doesn't count if you

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<v Speaker 1>don't cast it. But for mid terms, why that matters

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<v Speaker 1>so much is that the turnout is relatively low, especially

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<v Speaker 1>compared to a presidential election year, so you have a

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<v Speaker 1>lot more to gain by revving up turnout. And that's

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<v Speaker 1>something that you've seen basically every UM, every president since

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<v Speaker 1>two thousand in their mid term elections, they and the

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<v Speaker 1>opposition party. It's really been turning out the base that

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<v Speaker 1>matters in the mid terms UM this whole century UM,

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<v Speaker 1>rather than going after independent, suaitable voters. And I think

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<v Speaker 1>Craig makes a great point, especially when we talk about

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<v Speaker 1>turnout and just how much is writing on this Supreme

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<v Speaker 1>Court pick. And just under three hours, Senator Susan Collins,

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<v Speaker 1>the centrist Republican remain is set to deliver a speech

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<v Speaker 1>where she's going to make known Mike what her position is,

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<v Speaker 1>how she's going to vote on Judge Kavanaugh. Senator Jeff Blake,

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<v Speaker 1>according to NBC, is reportedly going to be a guest.

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<v Speaker 1>This all comes down to Senator Susan Collins, and we're

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<v Speaker 1>going to find that out at three o'clock. What's going

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<v Speaker 1>through her mind right now, what political calculations is she making,

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<v Speaker 1>and what pressure is she facing from the White House. Well,

0:12:41.960 --> 0:12:45.040
<v Speaker 1>I won't um, I won't pretend to know whether she's

0:12:45.640 --> 0:12:49.559
<v Speaker 1>debating this from a holy um disinterested view or political view.

0:12:49.600 --> 0:12:53.320
<v Speaker 1>But her political pressures are that she has to win

0:12:53.640 --> 0:12:57.400
<v Speaker 1>re election in a primary in Maine eventually, and this

0:12:57.480 --> 0:13:01.440
<v Speaker 1>is something that if she goes against the Conservatives on this,

0:13:01.880 --> 0:13:06.080
<v Speaker 1>it will really tick off potential primary voters. Now, on

0:13:06.120 --> 0:13:10.600
<v Speaker 1>the other hand, she has made a very big thing

0:13:10.640 --> 0:13:13.760
<v Speaker 1>of being having an independent streak, of being sensitive to

0:13:13.800 --> 0:13:17.840
<v Speaker 1>women's issues, of being sensitive particularly on row versus weight,

0:13:18.559 --> 0:13:23.880
<v Speaker 1>and this is an issue that both deals with abortion

0:13:24.000 --> 0:13:27.400
<v Speaker 1>rights and women's place in the world. Now, on top

0:13:27.400 --> 0:13:32.160
<v Speaker 1>of that, the general buzz is that the Bush family

0:13:32.280 --> 0:13:35.920
<v Speaker 1>has been lobbying her very heavily on behalf of Kavanaugh,

0:13:36.000 --> 0:13:39.320
<v Speaker 1>and she is not particularly close to President Trump, but

0:13:39.480 --> 0:13:41.839
<v Speaker 1>she does have a good relationship with the Bush family.

0:13:41.840 --> 0:13:45.200
<v Speaker 1>In fact, their summer homes in Maine, and so she's

0:13:45.200 --> 0:13:48.240
<v Speaker 1>getting a lot of personal lobbying from that front as well.

0:13:48.640 --> 0:13:50.280
<v Speaker 1>So we know that the President is about to hit

0:13:50.280 --> 0:13:52.000
<v Speaker 1>the road again, it feels a little bit like he

0:13:52.080 --> 0:13:54.880
<v Speaker 1>himself is on the ballot. Uh, tell us about you

0:13:54.920 --> 0:13:56.760
<v Speaker 1>know what, what is the White House thinking on sending

0:13:56.920 --> 0:13:59.680
<v Speaker 1>Trump himself out there? We've got about thirty seconds there.

0:13:59.720 --> 0:14:03.960
<v Speaker 1>Thinking is again, the Democrats are as rebbed as they get. Um,

0:14:03.960 --> 0:14:06.240
<v Speaker 1>he's got to rip up his people. There's nothing to

0:14:06.360 --> 0:14:08.800
<v Speaker 1>lose by sending him out there and revving him up.

0:14:08.840 --> 0:14:14.800
<v Speaker 1>That's not necessarily what everyday Republicans do. We're li from

0:14:14.800 --> 0:14:19.880
<v Speaker 1>the Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio and we're carefully monitoring what's

0:14:19.880 --> 0:14:22.560
<v Speaker 1>going on on Capitol Hill. It's all about Judge Brett

0:14:22.640 --> 0:14:27.040
<v Speaker 1>Kavanall Georgetown prep Alum, those allegations of sexual misconduct. He

0:14:27.080 --> 0:14:29.720
<v Speaker 1>cleared the cloture vote, and at three pm today we're

0:14:29.760 --> 0:14:34.000
<v Speaker 1>anticipating remarks from Senator Susan Collins, the centrist Republican from Maine.

0:14:34.040 --> 0:14:38.000
<v Speaker 1>She's gonna say how she's going to vote Senator Jeff Flake. Reportedly,

0:14:38.480 --> 0:14:41.480
<v Speaker 1>another key Republican, says that he's going to vote for

0:14:41.680 --> 0:14:45.440
<v Speaker 1>Judge Kavan also all eyes at three on the centrist

0:14:45.480 --> 0:14:49.600
<v Speaker 1>Republican from Maine. But this is our nasty and uh

0:14:49.880 --> 0:14:54.320
<v Speaker 1>Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell saying yesterday just how nasty

0:14:54.320 --> 0:14:56.760
<v Speaker 1>it's become and saying he could do nothing to satisfy

0:14:56.800 --> 0:14:59.400
<v Speaker 1>the Democrats. Take listen to what he said. There's no

0:14:59.480 --> 0:15:04.040
<v Speaker 1>way anything we did would satisfy the Democrats. They've always

0:15:04.080 --> 0:15:06.680
<v Speaker 1>got a reason why the goalposts need to be moved.

0:15:07.600 --> 0:15:09.360
<v Speaker 1>And joining us now on the line to talk about

0:15:09.400 --> 0:15:12.720
<v Speaker 1>precisely what's going to happen with Democrats. As professor at

0:15:12.720 --> 0:15:15.520
<v Speaker 1>Georgia State University Law School, Neil Kincop, Neil, thank you

0:15:15.600 --> 0:15:18.520
<v Speaker 1>so much for being here, my pleasure, and I want

0:15:18.520 --> 0:15:21.560
<v Speaker 1>to ask you because you are actually the former counselor

0:15:21.680 --> 0:15:25.040
<v Speaker 1>to then Senator Joe Biden for the impeachment trial of

0:15:25.080 --> 0:15:28.040
<v Speaker 1>President Clinton. I've got I was on in the Senate

0:15:28.120 --> 0:15:31.000
<v Speaker 1>earlier today, Neil, following all of the cloture vote, and

0:15:31.040 --> 0:15:34.520
<v Speaker 1>I was struck to see how Senator Joe Mansion, the

0:15:34.560 --> 0:15:39.560
<v Speaker 1>centrist Democrat from West Virginia actually voted with Republicans to

0:15:39.640 --> 0:15:41.840
<v Speaker 1>move for cloture. Now he could ultimately decide he's going

0:15:41.920 --> 0:15:45.120
<v Speaker 1>to vote against Judge kavan all tomorrow when this vote

0:15:45.200 --> 0:15:48.160
<v Speaker 1>is expected. But what do you think the calculus is,

0:15:48.280 --> 0:15:54.920
<v Speaker 1>Neil for someone like centrist Democrat Joe Mansion, Well, the

0:15:54.960 --> 0:15:58.080
<v Speaker 1>obvious calculus for him, first of all is he's got

0:15:58.080 --> 0:16:00.440
<v Speaker 1>to keep his seat right, and so he's got to

0:16:00.480 --> 0:16:05.120
<v Speaker 1>worry on the one hand, if he votes against Kavanaugh, right,

0:16:05.120 --> 0:16:07.800
<v Speaker 1>he's from a very red state, that could harm his

0:16:07.840 --> 0:16:11.240
<v Speaker 1>re election chances. On the other hand, I think even

0:16:11.280 --> 0:16:15.280
<v Speaker 1>in these very red states, Um, there's a real concern

0:16:15.400 --> 0:16:18.560
<v Speaker 1>about angering your own base and people not coming out

0:16:18.600 --> 0:16:20.520
<v Speaker 1>to vote for you. So you see, for example, in

0:16:20.800 --> 0:16:26.640
<v Speaker 1>red Indiana, Senator Donnelly decided to oppose Judge Kavanaugh. I

0:16:26.640 --> 0:16:30.520
<v Speaker 1>think it was a long and difficult consideration for him. Um,

0:16:30.520 --> 0:16:32.960
<v Speaker 1>it was for Senator hide Camp, who came out last

0:16:33.080 --> 0:16:36.480
<v Speaker 1>night saying she was going to oppose Kavanaugh. Um. It's

0:16:36.560 --> 0:16:40.760
<v Speaker 1>it's a really difficult calculation for anyone to make. Mansions

0:16:40.840 --> 0:16:44.040
<v Speaker 1>going absolutely down to the wire, um, And I think

0:16:44.080 --> 0:16:46.840
<v Speaker 1>maybe he's hoping Senator Collins will take him off the hook.

0:16:47.160 --> 0:16:49.440
<v Speaker 1>If if Susan Collins ends up being a yes, and

0:16:49.480 --> 0:16:52.200
<v Speaker 1>Manson's yes is not ultimately the deciding vote, it's sort

0:16:52.200 --> 0:16:54.200
<v Speaker 1>of he's going along with the pack. And I think

0:16:54.200 --> 0:16:56.000
<v Speaker 1>you can make an argument in the state where he's

0:16:56.080 --> 0:16:59.320
<v Speaker 1>running a forty two point Trump win there that supporting

0:16:59.360 --> 0:17:02.160
<v Speaker 1>Trump's pick for Supreme Court is is probably the way

0:17:02.200 --> 0:17:05.480
<v Speaker 1>he has to go. I'm sort of curious, Professor in

0:17:05.480 --> 0:17:07.159
<v Speaker 1>in your view as someone who sort of survived the

0:17:07.200 --> 0:17:10.480
<v Speaker 1>impeachment wars, you know, unprecedented, Uh is a word we

0:17:10.520 --> 0:17:13.159
<v Speaker 1>throw around a lot in Washington. Obviously, people who remember

0:17:13.200 --> 0:17:16.680
<v Speaker 1>the Clarence Thomas hearings, remember the partisan atmosphere there impeachment.

0:17:16.800 --> 0:17:18.119
<v Speaker 1>You know. Again, I have of of us who lived through that,

0:17:18.200 --> 0:17:20.679
<v Speaker 1>remember that, you know. Put this on the scale. It

0:17:20.720 --> 0:17:22.560
<v Speaker 1>feels like we have gone to kind of a new

0:17:22.640 --> 0:17:27.400
<v Speaker 1>place in Washington where you've had unbelievably partisan invective going

0:17:27.440 --> 0:17:29.520
<v Speaker 1>back and forth, uh, you know, and again in a

0:17:29.600 --> 0:17:33.520
<v Speaker 1>very personal way. Obviously, Professor Ford's allegations of a sexual assault,

0:17:33.560 --> 0:17:37.360
<v Speaker 1>Kavanaugh's very emotional denial kind of help help listeners understand

0:17:37.359 --> 0:17:39.040
<v Speaker 1>where this fits in on the scale. Have we gone

0:17:39.080 --> 0:17:41.640
<v Speaker 1>to sort of a new place in Washington? Of kind

0:17:41.640 --> 0:17:46.560
<v Speaker 1>of scorched earth emotional politics. We certainly have. We certainly have.

0:17:47.760 --> 0:17:52.320
<v Speaker 1>Sure there were echoes of the Thomas hearings in Judge

0:17:52.400 --> 0:17:58.000
<v Speaker 1>Kavanaugh's um screaming fit at his hearing last week. But

0:17:58.200 --> 0:18:00.640
<v Speaker 1>really we have gone to a new level. Like you said,

0:18:00.680 --> 0:18:03.119
<v Speaker 1>I lived through the impeachment of President Clinton, and that

0:18:03.240 --> 0:18:07.199
<v Speaker 1>seems like a bipartisan age by comparison to where we

0:18:07.280 --> 0:18:10.320
<v Speaker 1>are now. I can tell you going into that trial,

0:18:10.800 --> 0:18:14.919
<v Speaker 1>Democratic senators, including Senator Biden, who I was working for,

0:18:15.320 --> 0:18:18.800
<v Speaker 1>had an open mind about the possibility that they might

0:18:18.880 --> 0:18:21.719
<v Speaker 1>have to vote to convict right. They did not go

0:18:21.840 --> 0:18:24.560
<v Speaker 1>in sort of already decided that they were going to

0:18:24.600 --> 0:18:27.880
<v Speaker 1>support their president. They went in listened to the evidence

0:18:27.920 --> 0:18:30.720
<v Speaker 1>with an open mind in a much more kind of

0:18:30.760 --> 0:18:37.159
<v Speaker 1>bipartisan responsible way. And today it is just absolute tribal warfare.

0:18:37.320 --> 0:18:39.600
<v Speaker 1>If you're for it, I'm against it. If you're against it,

0:18:39.640 --> 0:18:42.480
<v Speaker 1>I'm for it. Um. And that that's that's a new thing.

0:18:42.840 --> 0:18:45.600
<v Speaker 1>And that was pretty interesting last week when we saw

0:18:46.280 --> 0:18:50.520
<v Speaker 1>the drama unfold inside of the Dirkson Senate Office Building

0:18:50.560 --> 0:18:54.320
<v Speaker 1>in the Senate Judiciary Committee room, when Senator Jeff Lake

0:18:54.560 --> 0:18:59.400
<v Speaker 1>meeting with centrist Democrat from Delaware Senator Chris Coons talking

0:18:59.440 --> 0:19:03.560
<v Speaker 1>about the one week extension to have this FBI investigation,

0:19:03.600 --> 0:19:06.520
<v Speaker 1>which then got again tied in the middle of all

0:19:06.560 --> 0:19:09.360
<v Speaker 1>of this, and Democrats saying they need more time, Republicans

0:19:09.560 --> 0:19:11.560
<v Speaker 1>trying to push it along, and and and all the

0:19:11.600 --> 0:19:14.880
<v Speaker 1>back and forth, and your all boss, now, former Vice

0:19:14.920 --> 0:19:18.320
<v Speaker 1>President Joe Biden, we should know in potential presidential candidates

0:19:18.320 --> 0:19:21.200
<v Speaker 1>saying just within the last twenty four hours that he

0:19:21.359 --> 0:19:25.280
<v Speaker 1>was invoking in the Anita Hill hearings and saying that

0:19:25.359 --> 0:19:28.119
<v Speaker 1>he wished that he had done a better job in

0:19:28.200 --> 0:19:31.160
<v Speaker 1>terms of uh controlling some of the questions that were

0:19:31.160 --> 0:19:33.800
<v Speaker 1>asked for Anita Hill. I would argue that this is

0:19:33.920 --> 0:19:37.400
<v Speaker 1>just as much a partisan issue as a generational one.

0:19:37.720 --> 0:19:40.120
<v Speaker 1>And I think here inside of the Beltway, it's been

0:19:40.160 --> 0:19:44.200
<v Speaker 1>fascinating to watch all of their critiques, particularly the Georgetown

0:19:44.240 --> 0:19:47.480
<v Speaker 1>prep angle. But talk to me in terms of what

0:19:47.560 --> 0:19:51.080
<v Speaker 1>this means for the mid term elections, particularly as you said,

0:19:51.280 --> 0:19:54.800
<v Speaker 1>Senator Joe Manchin's trying to protect his seat, Neil, But

0:19:54.880 --> 0:19:58.480
<v Speaker 1>what does this mean in terms of the broader enthusiasm

0:19:58.560 --> 0:20:02.800
<v Speaker 1>for Republicans and Democrats. So it'll be interesting to see

0:20:02.840 --> 0:20:07.639
<v Speaker 1>how it works. If Kavanaugh is confirmed, that certainly could

0:20:08.000 --> 0:20:12.120
<v Speaker 1>diminish the enthusiasm that Republicans have that the base has

0:20:12.240 --> 0:20:15.720
<v Speaker 1>to show up for the mid term. If Kavanaugh is defeated,

0:20:15.760 --> 0:20:18.720
<v Speaker 1>then I think you have a fully energized base, right.

0:20:18.760 --> 0:20:20.879
<v Speaker 1>And it is sort of harkens back to a different

0:20:20.880 --> 0:20:24.840
<v Speaker 1>confirmation hearing, the Bork confirmation hearings, But the rejection of

0:20:24.960 --> 0:20:30.040
<v Speaker 1>Robert Borke really energized the conservative base and committed them

0:20:30.080 --> 0:20:34.720
<v Speaker 1>to judicial politics in a way that continues to resonate today. Um.

0:20:34.840 --> 0:20:37.680
<v Speaker 1>So I think that that that if Kavanaugh is defeated,

0:20:37.720 --> 0:20:41.399
<v Speaker 1>that will certainly energize the Republicans. If Kavanaugh has confirmed,

0:20:41.440 --> 0:20:44.639
<v Speaker 1>the seat's not there, it's not at stake anymore. And

0:20:44.800 --> 0:20:48.240
<v Speaker 1>while I think Republicans are at the moment energized by this,

0:20:48.440 --> 0:20:50.600
<v Speaker 1>by the time the mid term rolls around, you know,

0:20:50.640 --> 0:20:54.240
<v Speaker 1>that's a whole month away, which in political terms, is

0:20:54.560 --> 0:20:58.280
<v Speaker 1>an eternity. Um that that kind of enthusiasm might not

0:20:58.440 --> 0:21:01.040
<v Speaker 1>be there. Um. I'd like to throw in a question

0:21:01.040 --> 0:21:03.639
<v Speaker 1>that we asked to our Supreme Court reporter earlier today

0:21:03.760 --> 0:21:06.200
<v Speaker 1>in terms of so let's fast forward. Let's say Kavanaugh

0:21:06.240 --> 0:21:08.959
<v Speaker 1>does make it onto the Supreme Court. What does that

0:21:09.000 --> 0:21:11.639
<v Speaker 1>look like is he always he and Claire Simons are

0:21:11.680 --> 0:21:13.159
<v Speaker 1>always gonna be at one end of voting on the

0:21:13.160 --> 0:21:16.119
<v Speaker 1>conservative side. Can he rise above this? How does the

0:21:16.160 --> 0:21:21.560
<v Speaker 1>Court embrace its newest member if it is Kavanaugh? Well,

0:21:21.680 --> 0:21:23.280
<v Speaker 1>I mean, I think it's going to make the court

0:21:23.320 --> 0:21:26.240
<v Speaker 1>look really bad, right, And you know, it was interesting

0:21:26.320 --> 0:21:30.040
<v Speaker 1>Lisa Murkowski and her comments today explaining why she's going

0:21:30.080 --> 0:21:33.680
<v Speaker 1>to vote against him, was it was precisely for that

0:21:33.680 --> 0:21:35.959
<v Speaker 1>that the Court needs to be above the kind of

0:21:36.000 --> 0:21:40.000
<v Speaker 1>partisanship that Judge the avan On displayed. And I don't

0:21:40.000 --> 0:21:42.560
<v Speaker 1>think there's any way for him on the Court to

0:21:42.680 --> 0:21:45.600
<v Speaker 1>be seen as anything other than that. And it really

0:21:45.640 --> 0:21:48.720
<v Speaker 1>does tarnish the credibility of that institution. Well, we want

0:21:48.720 --> 0:21:52.200
<v Speaker 1>to thank Neil Kincole, the professor at George Georgia State

0:21:52.320 --> 0:21:56.320
<v Speaker 1>University Law School, for coming on. Thanks for listening to

0:21:56.320 --> 0:21:59.639
<v Speaker 1>the Bloomberg Law Podcast. You can subscribe and listen to

0:21:59.640 --> 0:22:03.360
<v Speaker 1>the show on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, and on Bloomberg dot

0:22:03.440 --> 0:22:13.399
<v Speaker 1>com slash podcast. I'm June Brosso. This is Bloomberg m