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Speaker 1: Good morning, everybody, Happy Friday, Ryan Graham, great to see you,

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Speaker 1: my friends.

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Speaker 2: Nice to see you, Cristl.

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Speaker 1: Emily is going to jump on here when she is ready,

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Speaker 1: but there are many things to discuss this morning. Once again,

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Speaker 1: very hard to whittle down a quote unquote mini show

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Speaker 1: for today, but we've got breaking news with regard to

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Speaker 1: the Democrats cave with regard to the Republican ce our

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Speaker 1: budget situation, so a lot of fallout from that one.

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Speaker 1: We've got a bunch of new developments with regard to Ukraine.

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Speaker 1: Yesterday the stock market ended in correction territory, so continued

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Speaker 1: chaos and tumult there, and then we had some really

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Speaker 1: significant court decisions as well with regard to Doge. In particular,

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Speaker 1: multiple federal judge is ruling that those probationary employees have

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Speaker 1: to be rehired. But Ryan, since we don't have Emily

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Speaker 1: here yet, we can start with the demon dem conversation.

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Speaker 1: That's right, So just a little bit of backstory, and

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Speaker 1: I'm sorry that this gets into like annoyingly technical inside

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Speaker 1: the Beltway kind of stuff, but the government is going

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Speaker 1: to shut down tonight at midnight if they don't pass

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Speaker 1: some sort of funding Republicans made a bet, effectively that

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Speaker 1: Democrats would cave and go along with whatever funding resolution

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Speaker 1: that Republicans put together. So they put together a partisan

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Speaker 1: proposal that does things like raised defense spending, lower all

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Speaker 1: kinds of domestic spending priorities. Ryan is intimately familiar with

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Speaker 1: the details of how they're screwing over the DC public

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Speaker 1: school system and DCCD city government. There's a provision in

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Speaker 1: there that protects Republicans from having to ever take a

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Speaker 1: vote on Trump's tariff program, which is increasingly, you know,

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Speaker 1: totally unpopular. It also just hands to Trump and Elon

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Speaker 1: the ability to basically do whatever they want, which, let's

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Speaker 1: be honest, they already are, but this sort of codifies

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Speaker 1: that they would have a blank check and be able

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Speaker 1: to jade Evance actually told the Republican caucus that we've

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Speaker 1: already got plans for how we're not even going to

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Speaker 1: follow this budget plan. We're just going to do whatever

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Speaker 1: we want. Rhino, get your reaction before I play some

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Speaker 1: of the fall on here. But the other piece that's

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Speaker 1: really important here is Republicans control the White House, they

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Speaker 1: control the Senate, they control the House. This is one

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Speaker 1: of the few times when they actually need Democrats for

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Speaker 1: anything in order to keep the government open because they

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Speaker 1: need to get that sixty vote threshold in the Senate,

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Speaker 1: so they need seven or eight Dems. Probably Ran Paul

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Speaker 1: is going to vote against this, which means they need

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Speaker 1: eight Dems to vote with them to end a filibuster

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Speaker 1: to be able to vote on this budget resolution. So

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Speaker 1: it's one of the few moments when Democrats have leverage.

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Speaker 1: Democrats in the House all hung together, Haqeme Jeffreys, to

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Speaker 1: his credit, whipped against this Republican budget bill. Everybody except

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Speaker 1: for one in the Democratic caucus voted against it. The

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Speaker 1: Republicans had a similarly you know, partisan It was sort

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Speaker 1: of like a lockstep party line vote. The Republicans control

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Speaker 1: the House, so it passes through the House and it

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Speaker 1: gets to the Senate. Chuck Schumer was making some noises

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Speaker 1: like maybe he was going to fight, maybe this would

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Speaker 1: be the place where he took a stand, and ultimately,

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Speaker 1: yesterday evening, as many people would have anticipated, he decides

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Speaker 1: that he's going to cave. So, first of all, Ryan,

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Speaker 1: is there anything that you would add or clarify about

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Speaker 1: that setup of where we are as of this morning.

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Speaker 2: No, that's about right, Yeah, And the Democrats met for

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Speaker 2: a very long and what we were told testy lunch.

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Speaker 2: They always have their their Tuesday lunches, and this one

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Speaker 2: went extra long with you know, some Democrats arguing, look,

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Speaker 2: we believe that this is an unconstitutional power grab and

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Speaker 2: an effort to destroy the government and hand it over

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Speaker 2: to billionaires. Chris Murphy, as we'll play later coming, you know,

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Speaker 2: said publicly said just that much. In the meeting. A

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Speaker 2: bunch of Democrats said that, like, this doesn't make sense.

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Speaker 2: We have been out here saying that this is this

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Speaker 2: is unconstitutional what they are doing, and it's a threat

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Speaker 2: to our democracy. And now we're just going to rubber

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Speaker 2: stamp it, which will then give our imprimaitor to it.

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Speaker 2: We'll say this is now a bipartisan effort. And there

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Speaker 2: was this whole gimmick that human was trying to do

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Speaker 2: where let's vote for, you know, to move forward on

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Speaker 2: the bill so that we're not filibustering it, but then

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Speaker 2: we'll vote against it when it's on the Senate floor,

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Speaker 2: and nobody's nobody's fooled by that anymore. So yeah, that's

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Speaker 2: that's essentially, and I don't want to be too provincial

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Speaker 2: But ye know, they're taking one point one billion dollars

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Speaker 2: out of the d C operating budget, two hundred million

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Speaker 2: out of the DC public schools budget starting immediately, like

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Speaker 2: over the next year. Just that's just an absolutely extraordinary

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Speaker 2: amount of money. And DC gets federal money because it

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Speaker 2: is not a state, So the federal government insists on,

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Speaker 2: you know, basically having control over the city. And I

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Speaker 2: can't imagine like what that's going to mean for the

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Speaker 2: for city services broadly, but in the in the schools

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Speaker 2: in particular, they're already you know, facing layoffs and shortages

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Speaker 2: and high class sizes, yeah, and dilapidated buildings.

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Speaker 1: And DC has long gotten a raw deal because it

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Speaker 1: costs a lot to host the federal government in your city.

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Speaker 2: Yes, and you cannot tax an embassy, you cannot tax

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Speaker 2: a federal building, and you cannot tax a nonprofit. And

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Speaker 2: what is Washington made up of? Exactly embassies, nonprofits and

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Speaker 2: government buildings, and so there's very little tax base. So

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Speaker 2: the deal is the federal government comes in and backstops

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Speaker 2: some of that, not as much as they should, but

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Speaker 2: some of it. And I think it shows how little

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Speaker 2: ability Republicans have to actually do anything structural about the

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Speaker 2: federal deficit. If the only way that they can achieve

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Speaker 2: some savings is taking it from poor kids in Washington,

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Speaker 2: d C. Right like that, that's not a game changer

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Speaker 2: for you. Might make you happy for some twisted reason

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Speaker 2: because you're sick, but it doesn't actually do anything about

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Speaker 2: the federal deficit. We're talking about of this is that

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Speaker 2: over ten years, this would reduce the federal budget deficit

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Speaker 2: by seven billion dollars. And part of that is because

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Speaker 2: they cut twenty billion from the IRS, which will they

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Speaker 2: estimate and I think they underestimate. We'll add about add

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Speaker 2: forty billion because there'll be sixty billion in extra cheating

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Speaker 2: that we don't select as a result of this. I

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Speaker 2: think there'll be a lot more. But let's say that

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Speaker 2: that's right. So out of the seven billion they're saving

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Speaker 2: over ten years, a billion of it is coming out

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Speaker 2: of washing the DC's budget for the next year. That's cowardly,

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Speaker 2: it's not impressive, and it's not a structural solution to

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Speaker 2: what they think is a structural problem.

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Speaker 1: Although it's hard to take them seriously that they really

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Speaker 1: think that this is a structural problem when they're set

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Speaker 1: to give away trillions intax cuts to rich people, so

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Speaker 1: we're concerned about it.

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Speaker 2: Are about hundred it's hundreds of millions for weapons, billions

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Speaker 2: for weapons, like all these different weapons programs are are

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Speaker 2: singled out. A billion for this carrier, you know, hundreds

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Speaker 2: of millions for these jets, hundreds of millions for these subs.

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Speaker 2: Out of here, you're not serious.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, So there's something really interesting and unusual happening in

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Speaker 1: this Democratic Party debate inter debate though, which is that?

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Speaker 1: So Schumer and Kirsten Chillibrand both notably from New York,

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Speaker 1: will come back to that sort of led the charge

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Speaker 1: to try to convince their fellow Democratic senators to cave.

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Speaker 1: And Schumer, of course is the minority leader, so he's

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Speaker 1: the one that makes the announcement. Guys, I'm voting for cloture,

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Speaker 1: I'm voting for this cr I am compelling enough of

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Speaker 1: my Democratic colleagues to join me that we're going to

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Speaker 1: give Republicans the votes that they need to be able

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Speaker 1: to pass this thing through. And instantly there is absolute

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Speaker 1: fury at Schumer, not just from you know, the AOC types,

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Speaker 1: but really across the board, including fury that showed up

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Speaker 1: immediately on MSNBC, which of course is normally their role

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Speaker 1: is just a rubber stamp whatever it is that the

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Speaker 1: Democrats decide. So let me go ahead and pull up.

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Speaker 1: Also noteworthy this is you know Aaron Rupar that clipped

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Speaker 1: this and other like sort of CenTra is like vote blue,

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Speaker 1: reliable Democratic type and you know, typical of or really

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Speaker 1: emblematic of how wide and broad the fury at this

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Speaker 1: cave really is within the whole of the Democratic Party.

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Speaker 1: So let's go ahead and take a listen to this

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Speaker 1: kind of levers.

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Speaker 3: The one thing they have leverages in the Senate where

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Speaker 3: you need a filibuster proof majority on a cloture vote,

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Speaker 3: that there's essentially an up constitutional assault on the government

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Speaker 3: right now. And I think you would agree with that assault.

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Speaker 4: These guys are the worst and we got to fight

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Speaker 4: them every step of the way, as we say.

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Speaker 5: But looks telling people, But he's telling people on the floor,

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Speaker 5: we are not even going to listen to this c R.

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Speaker 5: This is a people of paper that we will impound

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Speaker 5: and rip up the moments that it's passed. If that's

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Speaker 5: the case, how is voting for cloture not essentially an

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Speaker 5: infra motor on the very same assault on the constitutional order.

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Speaker 4: They're already even without this CR, they're already doing it, right, Okay,

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Speaker 4: they are gonna They did it to the Department of Education.

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Speaker 4: But I can tell you I've been through shutdowns before,

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Speaker 4: the old It's not that this CR is good. It's

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Speaker 4: not that.

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Speaker 2: Voting for it is good.

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Speaker 4: It's horrible, but the alternative is worse.

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Speaker 1: And we And in addition, Chrises also made a good

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Speaker 1: point with him, which is, hey, the people who would

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Speaker 1: be most impacted by a shutdown are the federal government

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Speaker 1: employees themselves. Their union said, don't vote for this. So

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Speaker 1: how how can you justify, you know, caving in the

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Speaker 1: situation and voting along with the Republicans and handing them

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Speaker 1: even more unchecked power. And then, by the way, after

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Speaker 1: his first guest is Chuck Schumer, the very next guest

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Speaker 1: on Chris Haes is Bernie Sanders, who is out there

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Speaker 1: making the case for why this is a you know,

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Speaker 1: a horrific move for the Democratic Party.

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Speaker 2: Right in that clip, you guys can go back and

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Speaker 2: watch it again. You have Hayes like audibly scoffing and

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Speaker 2: laughing at the Senate Majority leader like that. That's where

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Speaker 2: the that's where the Democratic Party is at this point.

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Speaker 2: Just it just can't they can't be taken seriously.

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Speaker 1: Yeah no, that's that's exactly right. And you know it's

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Speaker 1: not just that he made this decision in this moment.

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Speaker 1: By the way, this vote is going to happen at

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Speaker 1: some point today and you know, we expect it to

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Speaker 1: go this way, but they are still under a lot

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Speaker 1: of pressure from their constituents to you know, to go

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Speaker 1: ahead and block this.

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Speaker 2: It never fails to cave, yeah.

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Speaker 1: I mean, he could fail to cave. You never know

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Speaker 1: what's going to ultimately happen. But I mean this has

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Speaker 1: been the thing that has been really wild, and we've

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Speaker 1: been sending each other, you know, Will Stancil, who's like

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Speaker 1: the prototypical moderate sort of anti left Democrat, who is

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Speaker 1: posting you have to these people are worthless. They're the

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Speaker 1: reason that the country is in the place that is today.

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Speaker 1: We need to primary all of them. It's like, well,

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Speaker 1: who is this guy You've got near a tandin out

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Speaker 1: there retweeting Bernie Sanders clips. And then you know, I'll

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Speaker 1: show you in moment some news articles about how even

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Speaker 1: some of the like swing district Democrats who went out

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Speaker 1: on a limb in their view, to vote to block

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Speaker 1: this in the House. They're ready to write checks to

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Speaker 1: AOC to primary Chuck Schumer. So this is the This

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Speaker 1: is in my opinion. Mind, you cover this more closely

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Speaker 1: than I do. This is the biggest rebellion I've ever

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Speaker 1: seen within the Democratic Party because it isn't a progressive rebellion.

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Speaker 1: It truly is the base moderate Democrats, you know, standard issue,

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Speaker 1: normy Democratic base voters who are absolutely furious at the

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Speaker 1: lack of fight and the lack of planning here, because,

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Speaker 1: as I was going to say, it's not just that

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Speaker 1: he caved, it's also that there was no messaging. There

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Speaker 1: was no demand that was made, there was no plan,

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Speaker 1: And we've known for months, I mean, we've been talking

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Speaker 1: about since Trump was elected that there was going to

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Speaker 1: be this shutdown fight and this would be a place

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Speaker 1: where Democrats could use some leverage and take a stand.

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Speaker 1: And yet nothing, absolutely nothing, And.

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Speaker 2: That that's the key point. That they never articulated a message.

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Speaker 2: Therefore they have no demand here. So if they imagine

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Speaker 2: that they did, that's that enough Democrats grow spind here

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Speaker 2: and they do block cloture today and we get a

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Speaker 2: government shutdown. Then the media will come to Democrats and say, okay,

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Speaker 2: what do you want? What's like, what's your demand? Right,

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Speaker 2: if you don't like this budget, like what's your what's

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Speaker 2: your counteroffer? What are you what are you demanding that

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Speaker 2: Republicans do? And right now, all they kind of have

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Speaker 2: is well, this whole thing is an unconstitutional power grab.

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Speaker 2: It's like, okay, well, what do you want? Now? What

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Speaker 2: they if if they were serious about that messaging, they

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Speaker 2: could say, we're going to put into law, you know

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Speaker 2: that any reductions in force, you know, done to federal

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Speaker 2: you know, federal workforces must be done through congressional with

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Speaker 2: congressional approval, Like that could be the thing that they

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Speaker 2: would demand, or any any restructuring of the of the

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Speaker 2: government must be done through Congress. And then that would

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Speaker 2: require getting sixty votes in the Senate. So they're beasts.

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Speaker 2: And then you could and you could, as as Americans

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Speaker 2: like you could see the virtue in that, like, Okay,

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Speaker 2: we think that the federal government is too big and

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Speaker 2: it's disorganized, and there's a lot of waste, fraud abuse.

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Speaker 2: Let's find it. Let's figure it out. Let's figure out

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Speaker 2: how we can fund investigations into the waste and fraud.

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Speaker 2: Let's see, let's see where we can streamline things. But

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Speaker 2: they don't want it. They don't like they're they're not

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Speaker 2: doing that. They're just they don't have anything. So I

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Speaker 2: think that's I think Schumer understood that they didn't have

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Speaker 2: a step to there, and I also think that Schumer.

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Speaker 1: But he's part of the reason why they didn't have

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Speaker 1: He's the reason.

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Speaker 2: He's the reason. Yeah, he's the.

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Speaker 1: Guy that was like, you were the one who was

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Speaker 1: supposed to come up with that step two.

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Speaker 2: So to him, he likes to get out of the way. Strategy.

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Speaker 2: Stock market is crashing, Trump's approval rating is crashing, get

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Speaker 2: out of the way. It's like a communist revolutionary strategy, like,

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Speaker 2: you know, allow things to collapse and hype the contradictions.

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Speaker 1: That is that what's going on. Yes, well this was

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Speaker 1: the James Carvel. I mean, this is what he said, basically,

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Speaker 1: like roll over and play dead and let them destroy everything.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I am a vig Oeland noted, and I

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Speaker 1: think that there may be something to this that the

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Speaker 1: two Democrats who led the charge to cave. Here are

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Speaker 1: the two democratuct senators from New York Meanwhile, you know

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Speaker 1: we're going to cover later in the show, markets and chaos.

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Speaker 1: Certainly a government shut down would not be good for

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Speaker 1: you know, their portfolios and their bottom line. So it's

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Speaker 1: also certainly possible that you know, Wall Street got to

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Speaker 1: them and it's basically like, you can't do this. This

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Speaker 1: is going to be too bad for us. And you

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Speaker 1: know that's a core constituency both for Kirsten Gilibrand and

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Speaker 1: for Chuck Schumer. Let me go ahead and play aoc

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Speaker 1: here on CNN. Who was you know? Really she really

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Speaker 1: has led the charge, I would say, in terms of

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Speaker 1: trying to bolster Democrats and trying to encourage them to

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Speaker 1: have a spine in this situation. And she also got

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Speaker 1: asked the question about whether she would talan Chuck sherm,

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Speaker 1: I'm not sure if fasten this side or not, but

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Speaker 1: let's go ahead and take a look at what we've

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Speaker 1: got here.

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Speaker 2: Vote you think that's wrong.

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Speaker 6: I believe that's a tremendous mistake. Yeah. I think, well,

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Speaker 6: first and foremost, the American people. If anyone has held

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Speaker 6: a town hall or has seen what has been happening

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Speaker 6: in town halls, American people, whether they are Republicans, independence.

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Speaker 6: Democrats are up in arms about Elon Musk and the

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Speaker 6: actual cut of federal agencies across the board. This Continuing

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Speaker 6: Resolution codifies much of this chaos that Elon Musk is

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Speaker 6: wreaking havoc on the federal government. It codifies many of

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Speaker 6: those changes, It sacrifices and completely eliminates congressional authority in

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Speaker 6: order to review these impulsive Trump tariffs that he's switching

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Speaker 6: on and off. And on top of that, for folks

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Speaker 6: who are concerned about effectiveness and government, this Republican extreme

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Speaker 6: Spending Bill removes all of the guardrails and all of

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Speaker 6: the accountability measures to ensure that money is being spent

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Speaker 6: in the way that Congress has directed for it to

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Speaker 6: be spent. This turns the federal government into a slush

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Speaker 6: fund for Donald Trump and Elon Musk. It sacrifices congressional authority,

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Speaker 6: and it is deeply partisan, and so to me, it

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Speaker 6: is almost unthinkable why Senate Democrats would vote to hand

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Speaker 6: the few pieces of leverage that we have away for

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Speaker 6: free when we've been secure to protect social security, protect medicaid,

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Speaker 6: and protect Medicare.

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Speaker 7: You have it?

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Speaker 1: So he goes on to say, hey, you know, would

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Speaker 1: you challenge Chuck schumergency of course dodges that, but that

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Speaker 1: is apparently a live issue. Now, Ryan, I'm going to

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Speaker 1: let you speak to that. I'm going to put the

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Speaker 1: dog so she stops sparking, be right back.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and we could put it up in a minute.

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Speaker 2: But there's this. There was some reporting from Leesburg, Virginia,

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Speaker 2: which is where Democrats are holding their annual kind of

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Speaker 2: policy retreat. These House Democrats go, it's a bunch of

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Speaker 2: bunch of members of Congress, lobbyists and reporters, you know,

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Speaker 2: go to huddle for a couple of days, their set

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Speaker 2: their strategy. And AOC was interviewed by reporters out there,

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Speaker 2: and that's and that's where she was also getting pressed

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Speaker 2: on whether or not she was going to challenge Schumer

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Speaker 2: with with with members of Congress who were at that retreat, saying, look,

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Speaker 2: I'm a centrist. They wouldn't put their names to it,

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Speaker 2: cowards that they are. I'm a centrist, but I am

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Speaker 2: ready to write a check to AOC right right here

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Speaker 2: at this at this retreat if she will jump in

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Speaker 2: the race against Chuck Schumer. It's interesting because Chuck Schumer

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Speaker 2: felt an enormous amount of concern about AOC primarying him

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Speaker 2: in twenty twenty right after or twenty twenty two. I

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Speaker 2: guess is that when he was up twenty twenty two,

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Speaker 2: so he's I guess he's not up until twenty twenty eight,

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Speaker 2: so maybe he feels like he has time to let

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Speaker 2: this kind of that this will not be a thing. Yeah.

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Speaker 1: I think they also, like I don't think they've fully

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Speaker 1: adjusted to the reality where near where near a Tandon

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Speaker 1: and Will Stanzel are hating them, you know, like they're

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Speaker 1: used to some level of like minor, quashable, ignorable rebellion

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Speaker 1: from the left flank of the Democratic Party, and I'm

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Speaker 1: still seeing articles that are written that are like, the

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Speaker 1: left is mad. It's like, yes, the left is mad,

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Speaker 1: but that's actually not what's important here. What's noteworthy is that,

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Speaker 1: you know, normal resistance Dems are disgusted with Democratic leadership

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Speaker 1: and what that leads to. It's you know, it's an

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Speaker 1: open question, but this is the most tea party like

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Speaker 1: that the Democratic Party has ever been in. They're discussed

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Speaker 1: with their own leadership, their discontent, enchantment, disenchantment with their

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Speaker 1: own media, and their desire to, you know, to challenge

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Speaker 1: some of these people and get them ount of there

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Speaker 1: if they're not willing to fight.

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Speaker 2: And one critique of the of this will Stancil approach.

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Speaker 2: You know, he comes he comes from the kind of

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Speaker 2: centrist school of you know, fight harder Democrats, right, and

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Speaker 2: so they always want to fight harder, and now he's

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Speaker 2: ramping it up to eleven. They need to fight harder.

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Speaker 2: But because he is so reluctant to embrace genuine like

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Speaker 2: left politics, it's like, we'll fight harder for what he's like, well,

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Speaker 2: fight harder against democrats. So that comes That means they

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Speaker 2: should have pressed their charges against Trump faster. They should

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Speaker 2: have impeached him harder, like classic rather than like you know,

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Speaker 2: an actual substain of critique.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, no, and that is certainly true, there's no doubt

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Speaker 1: about it. Like you know, the I was talking to

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Speaker 1: soccer about this yesterday, the Brian Tyler Cohen's The Midas

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Speaker 1: Touch is becoming a little bit more ideological, I would say,

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Speaker 1: and a progressive direction. But really the core of their

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Speaker 1: critique is just stand up, fight harder, resist Trump more effectively.

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Speaker 1: And you know you said this was a fascist threat.

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Speaker 1: The fascist threat has arrived and now you're just like

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Speaker 1: laying down and capitulating, and so that is the core

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Speaker 1: of their critique. What's noteworthy, though, is that the people

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Speaker 1: who are by and large satisfying that desire to see

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Speaker 1: people who have a strategy and are putting up a

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Speaker 1: fight are people like AOC, are people like Bernie. Most

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Speaker 1: of the people who are demonstrating a backbone and putting

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Speaker 1: up a fight in this moment happened to be on

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Speaker 1: the progressive left. So you know, that's what's sort of

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Speaker 1: interesting in this moment is like, yeah, I don't think

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Speaker 1: it's particularly ideological, and yet the people who are there

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Speaker 1: raising up as heroes at this point are the aocs

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Speaker 1: and the Bernie's of the world. So for example, with

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Speaker 1: this you know, centrist rebellion and them being like AOC

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Speaker 1: we challenged humor, it's because they're excited about Medicare for all.

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Speaker 1: It's for this reason. And also for these particular House Democrats,

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Speaker 1: they feel like they were they say here, feel like

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Speaker 1: they walked the plank. In the words of one member,

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Speaker 1: they voted almost unanimously against the budget measure, only to

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Speaker 1: watch Senate Democrats seemingly give it the green light. Complete

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Speaker 1: melt in complete and utter meltdown on all text chains.

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Speaker 1: A senior House Democrat said, people are curious. Some rank

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Speaker 1: and file members floated the idea of angrily marching onto

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Speaker 1: the Senate floor in protest. Others are talking openly about

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Speaker 1: supporting primary challenges to senators who vote for the GP

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Speaker 1: spending bill. And even you know, for AOC herself, who

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Speaker 1: came in of course defeating a long time establishment member

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Speaker 1: and started off with that protest outside in Nancy Pelosi's office.

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Speaker 1: I mean, you literally wrote the book on her evolution.

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Speaker 1: She has much more embraced the tactic of let me

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Speaker 1: see what I can get on front, you know, on

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Speaker 1: the inside. So for her to come out swinging against

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Speaker 1: democratic leadership, even for her is a brain from the

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Speaker 1: way that she's been operating the bulk of the time

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Speaker 1: that she's been in the House, right.

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Speaker 2: And you know, if you think back, you know throughout history,

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Speaker 2: like who was in the French underground resistance. You know,

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Speaker 2: in Nazi occupied France, it was it was leftists, it

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Speaker 2: was communists, it was socialists. The Centrists became part of

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Speaker 2: vich France. You know, they collaborated with the incoming government,

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Speaker 2: and that that was the case with resistance to fascism

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Speaker 2: all over the world. And that's why you had socialists

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Speaker 2: so popular for decades after World War Two all around

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Speaker 2: the world, not just Europe but everywhere else where there

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Speaker 2: was fascism and authoritarianism and Vietnam wherever it was. These

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Speaker 2: socialists and communists, like the hardcore left that went underground,

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Speaker 2: stuck to their principles and fought and died for their country.

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Speaker 2: And if you were not active in that, you know,

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Speaker 2: you were considered a trader for decades. It's after World

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Speaker 2: War Two, and so the rhetoric now is the same,

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Speaker 2: Like obviously we do not have Nazi occupied the United States,

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Speaker 2: but the rhetoric coming from Democrats is the same, and

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Speaker 2: they feel like they're under siege, and so they're turning

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Speaker 2: to people who are actually willing to fight for something. Now,

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Speaker 2: what happened is that because the socialists and communists fought

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Speaker 2: for something, they were then given a hearing for their

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Speaker 2: actual policy ideas, you know, after they after they came

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Speaker 2: to power. So right now all they want from AOC

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Speaker 2: and Bernie is this energy. They like the fight. Will

430
00:23:39,200 --> 00:23:42,879
Speaker 2: they start listening to them on a policy level? Next?

431
00:23:43,040 --> 00:23:45,200
Speaker 2: Is that is that step two of this party evolution,

432
00:23:45,760 --> 00:23:50,359
Speaker 2: I don't know. And there's enormous corporate and you know,

433
00:23:50,400 --> 00:23:53,560
Speaker 2: billionaire counterweight against that happening. Of course, Yeah, at least

434
00:23:53,560 --> 00:23:54,840
Speaker 2: it opens up the possibility.

435
00:23:55,520 --> 00:23:56,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, of course.

436
00:23:56,640 --> 00:23:56,840
Speaker 8: Yeah.

437
00:23:56,880 --> 00:24:01,040
Speaker 1: I mean, given your coverage of the the Democratic Party

438
00:24:01,040 --> 00:24:05,600
Speaker 1: and these fights, you know, going back years, do you

439
00:24:05,640 --> 00:24:09,160
Speaker 1: see similarities with the Tea Party rebellion? Do you think

440
00:24:09,200 --> 00:24:12,000
Speaker 1: we're going to see primary fights against some of these

441
00:24:12,080 --> 00:24:17,159
Speaker 1: members who are deemed you know, insufficiently like insufficiently strong

442
00:24:17,320 --> 00:24:18,480
Speaker 1: against Trump in this moment.

443
00:24:19,320 --> 00:24:21,199
Speaker 2: It is funny that I'm talking about marching on the

444
00:24:21,240 --> 00:24:25,160
Speaker 2: Senate because that's literally what a couple of uh Tea

445
00:24:25,200 --> 00:24:30,399
Speaker 2: Party members did. M Tea Party kept passing uh you know,

446
00:24:30,560 --> 00:24:34,199
Speaker 2: repeals of Medicare and cuts the government spending, and the

447
00:24:34,240 --> 00:24:37,080
Speaker 2: Senate would just immediately dispatch with it and go back

448
00:24:37,119 --> 00:24:39,359
Speaker 2: to kind of business usual. So they went down to

449
00:24:39,359 --> 00:24:42,320
Speaker 2: the Senate physically and stood in the stood in the

450
00:24:42,320 --> 00:24:46,439
Speaker 2: Senate chamber and we're like, you know, they're like, what

451
00:24:46,480 --> 00:24:48,720
Speaker 2: do we have to do here? And they were people

452
00:24:48,720 --> 00:24:50,760
Speaker 2: were like who are you guys, and why are you here?

453
00:24:50,800 --> 00:24:53,359
Speaker 2: And kind of ushered them out. Now those guys control

454
00:24:53,600 --> 00:24:58,639
Speaker 2: the party. Uh So there definitely are some similarities, you know,

455
00:24:58,720 --> 00:25:02,080
Speaker 2: seeing Hayes shift or laugh not shift, but like laugh

456
00:25:02,200 --> 00:25:06,000
Speaker 2: and space. Yeah, you know you needed the Tea party

457
00:25:06,000 --> 00:25:08,359
Speaker 2: without Fox News would not have existed like it needed.

458
00:25:09,080 --> 00:25:13,199
Speaker 2: It needs a giant media megaphone to change what the

459
00:25:13,320 --> 00:25:15,680
Speaker 2: what the party rank and file understands as where they're

460
00:25:15,680 --> 00:25:18,480
Speaker 2: supposed to be. Yeah, so if you get a shift

461
00:25:18,480 --> 00:25:20,480
Speaker 2: from MSNBC and say that like the New York Times

462
00:25:20,480 --> 00:25:25,520
Speaker 2: and CNN, then then yeah, you could see the party shift.

463
00:25:25,720 --> 00:25:28,720
Speaker 1: I mean you also do have massive growth of these

464
00:25:28,880 --> 00:25:33,520
Speaker 1: Minus Touch Brian Tyler, Cohen Kyle channel, like all of

465
00:25:33,520 --> 00:25:40,040
Speaker 1: these liberal to you know, progressive left channels that are

466
00:25:40,240 --> 00:25:43,280
Speaker 1: blowing up in size and are taking this boscher of

467
00:25:43,400 --> 00:25:45,600
Speaker 1: you know, you you've got a fight, so you have

468
00:25:45,720 --> 00:25:48,359
Speaker 1: that as a as a megaphone too. But yeah, if

469
00:25:48,400 --> 00:25:52,040
Speaker 1: you have even if you're just covering this fight on MSNBC,

470
00:25:52,240 --> 00:25:55,679
Speaker 1: that would be different then and you genuinely have you know,

471
00:25:55,800 --> 00:25:58,000
Speaker 1: like Hayes head on Chuck Schrumer then immediately has on

472
00:25:58,000 --> 00:26:01,520
Speaker 1: Bernie Sanders. Even if you're doing that, it's profoundly different

473
00:26:01,560 --> 00:26:05,320
Speaker 1: from the way MSNBC has operated as just like whatever

474
00:26:05,320 --> 00:26:09,440
Speaker 1: democratic leadership says we are backing that full stop. Other

475
00:26:09,520 --> 00:26:11,560
Speaker 1: views are not even going to be like tolerated or

476
00:26:11,600 --> 00:26:12,360
Speaker 1: represented here.

477
00:26:13,119 --> 00:26:15,439
Speaker 2: Yeah, and if Schumer gets what he wants, which is

478
00:26:16,040 --> 00:26:19,720
Speaker 2: the bottom falling out of the Trump administration, he may

479
00:26:19,760 --> 00:26:22,480
Speaker 2: not end up getting credit for it. You know, He's

480
00:26:22,680 --> 00:26:26,080
Speaker 2: people are going to remember that he facilitated it. And

481
00:26:26,119 --> 00:26:29,679
Speaker 2: so somebody like a Chris Murphy or shots or somebody

482
00:26:29,720 --> 00:26:32,159
Speaker 2: like that, yeah, might come in and take over the

483
00:26:32,480 --> 00:26:33,399
Speaker 2: mantle from him.

484
00:26:33,600 --> 00:26:35,520
Speaker 1: Yeah. Yeah. A lot of people are saying, hey, let's

485
00:26:35,520 --> 00:26:38,040
Speaker 1: get Chris Murphy as a Senate Minority leader and get

486
00:26:38,080 --> 00:26:40,600
Speaker 1: this guy on it here, which is interesting. And Murphy

487
00:26:40,720 --> 00:26:42,800
Speaker 1: is definitely one who's like sort of stepped up and

488
00:26:42,880 --> 00:26:45,840
Speaker 1: understood actually you know new media. Also, he's always recording

489
00:26:45,840 --> 00:26:48,800
Speaker 1: these straight to camera like here's how I'm thinking about things,

490
00:26:48,800 --> 00:26:50,680
Speaker 1: and here's why I'm approaching it this way that I

491
00:26:50,680 --> 00:26:52,920
Speaker 1: think has garnered him a lot of trust with the

492
00:26:53,240 --> 00:26:56,560
Speaker 1: Democratic base. Let's go ahead and move on to what

493
00:26:56,680 --> 00:26:59,440
Speaker 1: was going on in the markets yesterday. I haven't checked.

494
00:26:59,480 --> 00:27:02,760
Speaker 1: They're open now. I haven't checked to see exactly what's

495
00:27:02,800 --> 00:27:05,800
Speaker 1: going on. I know futures were up this morning, don't

496
00:27:05,800 --> 00:27:09,800
Speaker 1: look me. I know futures are out this morning. But

497
00:27:10,040 --> 00:27:12,920
Speaker 1: this is what things have been looking like. This is

498
00:27:12,920 --> 00:27:14,399
Speaker 1: from how they're long at the washing post. S and

499
00:27:14,440 --> 00:27:17,199
Speaker 1: P five hundred tumbled into a correction today, ten percent

500
00:27:17,280 --> 00:27:20,520
Speaker 1: drop from its prior high on February nineteenth. Trump's comments

501
00:27:20,520 --> 00:27:22,720
Speaker 1: today quote I'm not going to bed at all on tariffs,

502
00:27:22,960 --> 00:27:26,760
Speaker 1: have exacerbated fears and frustrations with his economic plans. Today's

503
00:27:26,800 --> 00:27:28,920
Speaker 1: losses S and P five hundred minus one point four,

504
00:27:28,960 --> 00:27:32,119
Speaker 1: down minus one point three NASDAK minus two. And you

505
00:27:32,119 --> 00:27:35,360
Speaker 1: can see what that looks like on the chart here.

506
00:27:35,680 --> 00:27:39,600
Speaker 1: Since you know, starting in like November going till now now,

507
00:27:39,680 --> 00:27:41,680
Speaker 1: the stock market has been on a sort of long

508
00:27:41,720 --> 00:27:47,040
Speaker 1: and mostly unbroken upward march. But this is I saw,

509
00:27:47,400 --> 00:27:49,679
Speaker 1: I actually think I have this. This is one of

510
00:27:49,680 --> 00:27:53,240
Speaker 1: the fastest drops that we've seen in one hundred years.

511
00:27:53,720 --> 00:27:56,320
Speaker 1: Joe Wisenthal says, there are a lot of Trump aligned

512
00:27:56,359 --> 00:27:58,840
Speaker 1: voices telling people to calm down. Selves happen, and it's

513
00:27:58,840 --> 00:28:02,280
Speaker 1: true people tend to grat panicking. But this is one

514
00:28:02,320 --> 00:28:04,680
Speaker 1: of the fastest selloffs of the last century. While the

515
00:28:04,680 --> 00:28:08,840
Speaker 1: president pursues a policy the virtually no economist will defend.

516
00:28:09,280 --> 00:28:12,560
Speaker 1: And you know, Ryan, you were raising alarms about and

517
00:28:12,960 --> 00:28:16,800
Speaker 1: I saw Johns Hopkins is now laying off two thousand workers. So,

518
00:28:16,960 --> 00:28:19,080
Speaker 1: in addition to the tariffs, get a lot of attention

519
00:28:19,119 --> 00:28:23,000
Speaker 1: on Wall Street. Understandable especially because Trump is they're on,

520
00:28:23,119 --> 00:28:25,800
Speaker 1: they're off, they're back on, this part's on, this part's

521
00:28:25,880 --> 00:28:28,000
Speaker 1: coming back on in April. I mean, it really is

522
00:28:28,040 --> 00:28:30,040
Speaker 1: all over the place and hard to make a co

523
00:28:30,359 --> 00:28:32,760
Speaker 1: I mean it's impossible for any literally anyone to make

524
00:28:32,760 --> 00:28:35,040
Speaker 1: a coherent case of exactly what he's up to or

525
00:28:35,080 --> 00:28:38,000
Speaker 1: why he's up up to it and why you know

526
00:28:38,120 --> 00:28:40,480
Speaker 1: they're saying, oh, there's no pay, no games gain, is

527
00:28:40,480 --> 00:28:44,480
Speaker 1: what Tommy Tuberville said. The Commerce Secretary, Howard Lutnik, said

528
00:28:44,480 --> 00:28:46,600
Speaker 1: that a recession will be quote unquote worth it, And

529
00:28:46,640 --> 00:28:48,880
Speaker 1: the question remains, like worth it for what what is

530
00:28:48,920 --> 00:28:51,760
Speaker 1: it that we're supposed to, you know, accept suffering on.

531
00:28:51,880 --> 00:28:54,120
Speaker 1: What is the goal that we're supposed to accept suffering on?

532
00:28:54,200 --> 00:28:58,120
Speaker 1: Behalf of? But in addition to the tariffs, you have

533
00:28:58,200 --> 00:29:01,440
Speaker 1: this mass vesterity program with the federal government that is

534
00:29:01,480 --> 00:29:06,200
Speaker 1: going to reverberate much outside of just DC and Virginia. Hey,

535
00:29:06,320 --> 00:29:09,960
Speaker 1: m how's it going? She's getting plugged in?

536
00:29:10,120 --> 00:29:11,560
Speaker 8: Love? Would I pop in and you guys are in

537
00:29:11,600 --> 00:29:11,960
Speaker 8: the middle.

538
00:29:12,480 --> 00:29:14,040
Speaker 1: We're talking about the markets. We already got through the

539
00:29:14,040 --> 00:29:16,640
Speaker 1: democratic catastrophe, so we didn't want to hear what you

540
00:29:16,680 --> 00:29:17,400
Speaker 1: had to say about that.

541
00:29:18,760 --> 00:29:21,800
Speaker 8: I'm more towards what you guys think to be honest anyway,

542
00:29:22,160 --> 00:29:24,600
Speaker 8: But I was just saying that, you know, in addition

543
00:29:24,640 --> 00:29:26,960
Speaker 8: to the tariffs causing market termoil, you also have this

544
00:29:27,000 --> 00:29:29,600
Speaker 8: austerity program with the federal government, which you know as

545
00:29:29,680 --> 00:29:33,120
Speaker 8: one example of how that will have a massively larger

546
00:29:33,120 --> 00:29:35,800
Speaker 8: effect than just what Elon is doing in DC.

547
00:29:36,360 --> 00:29:38,960
Speaker 1: Johns Hopkins just announced their laying off two thousand plus

548
00:29:39,000 --> 00:29:42,240
Speaker 1: workers because of some of the funding freezes and uncertainty

549
00:29:42,320 --> 00:29:45,400
Speaker 1: around you know, research and science. So you know, Ryan,

550
00:29:45,440 --> 00:29:46,920
Speaker 1: what do you kind of make of the state of

551
00:29:46,960 --> 00:29:50,680
Speaker 1: the economy and this market movement in particular a.

552
00:29:50,680 --> 00:29:54,320
Speaker 2: Caveat on the Hopkins layoffs. I think about fifteen hundred

553
00:29:54,320 --> 00:29:58,800
Speaker 2: of those were overseas directly directly related to USAID cuts.

554
00:29:58,840 --> 00:30:00,080
Speaker 1: Oh really, I didn't realize.

555
00:29:59,880 --> 00:30:03,280
Speaker 2: That because Hopkins does a lot of so USA Idea

556
00:30:03,320 --> 00:30:06,920
Speaker 2: was funding a bunch of research, you know, scientific research,

557
00:30:07,000 --> 00:30:11,160
Speaker 2: and which again you know, soft power stuff, and we

558
00:30:11,200 --> 00:30:13,720
Speaker 2: don't know the details of exactly what they were doing.

559
00:30:13,720 --> 00:30:16,000
Speaker 2: So it's about four or five hundred here in the

560
00:30:16,080 --> 00:30:19,000
Speaker 2: US they're getting laid off. But yes, you know, hiring

561
00:30:19,040 --> 00:30:22,320
Speaker 2: freezes all over the place. And what you're hearing from

562
00:30:22,320 --> 00:30:25,960
Speaker 2: Wall Street is we knew that that what that we

563
00:30:26,040 --> 00:30:28,200
Speaker 2: knew there would be what they what Wall Street calls

564
00:30:28,240 --> 00:30:34,560
Speaker 2: anti growth policies, which would be tariffs. But we thought

565
00:30:34,600 --> 00:30:37,720
Speaker 2: that they would couple them, they would temper them and

566
00:30:37,760 --> 00:30:40,880
Speaker 2: couple them with pro growth policies and what Wall Street

567
00:30:40,920 --> 00:30:43,680
Speaker 2: calls I'm not endorsing these views what Wall Street calls

568
00:30:43,680 --> 00:30:45,400
Speaker 2: pro growth policies basically tax.

569
00:30:45,240 --> 00:30:46,360
Speaker 1: Cuts, tax cuts for them.

570
00:30:46,600 --> 00:30:49,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, And so so far they're like, hm, we're getting

571
00:30:49,480 --> 00:30:52,400
Speaker 2: a lot more anti growth policies than we are getting

572
00:30:52,480 --> 00:30:56,120
Speaker 2: at this point pro growth policies. And I think they

573
00:30:56,120 --> 00:30:59,800
Speaker 2: would might even be happier if the quote unquote anti

574
00:30:59,800 --> 00:31:04,560
Speaker 2: grow both policies we're coherent, like okay, what like what

575
00:31:05,120 --> 00:31:08,080
Speaker 2: is your tariff policy? And why are you doing it?

576
00:31:08,520 --> 00:31:10,840
Speaker 2: Because then they can try to figure out how they're

577
00:31:10,840 --> 00:31:13,720
Speaker 2: going to invest. You know, Wall Street is where capital

578
00:31:13,760 --> 00:31:17,520
Speaker 2: gets allocated, and you know, some of it's absurd, like

579
00:31:18,840 --> 00:31:23,320
Speaker 2: we're putting tariffs on Canadian wood. Then they're like, oh,

580
00:31:23,360 --> 00:31:26,840
Speaker 2: we can't really put capital into growing more trees in

581
00:31:26,880 --> 00:31:28,680
Speaker 2: the US, like we're growing the trees we can grow.

582
00:31:28,720 --> 00:31:30,360
Speaker 2: That's it. But what they can do is then go

583
00:31:30,400 --> 00:31:34,520
Speaker 2: to Siberia and try to buy more that crappy softer

584
00:31:34,600 --> 00:31:37,920
Speaker 2: wood from Siberia made with North Korean save slave labor.

585
00:31:38,920 --> 00:31:41,640
Speaker 2: But at least then they can plan that out. Right,

586
00:31:41,800 --> 00:31:44,080
Speaker 2: So right right now, they're just kind of confused and waiting,

587
00:31:44,440 --> 00:31:47,080
Speaker 2: and so that's going to tamp down investment and growth.

588
00:31:48,400 --> 00:31:50,880
Speaker 2: And I just checked the tox so it's we're filming this.

589
00:31:50,920 --> 00:31:53,680
Speaker 2: It's nine forty five. Yeah, and it's you know, they

590
00:31:53,680 --> 00:31:55,160
Speaker 2: got a little they got a bounce in the morning.

591
00:31:55,400 --> 00:31:59,440
Speaker 2: I think all the all these traders keep wanting to

592
00:31:59,480 --> 00:32:02,800
Speaker 2: time the boy them right like, is this the bottom yet?

593
00:32:02,880 --> 00:32:04,880
Speaker 2: Let me get in, Let me get in. So far

594
00:32:04,960 --> 00:32:08,080
Speaker 2: everybody who has bought the dip has gotten washed out

595
00:32:08,200 --> 00:32:09,920
Speaker 2: by okay, so we'll see.

596
00:32:10,360 --> 00:32:13,479
Speaker 1: Yeah. Well, because Trump continues emily to say things like this.

597
00:32:13,520 --> 00:32:15,680
Speaker 1: Here he is talking about Canada, and this I think

598
00:32:15,760 --> 00:32:17,240
Speaker 1: is the clip to where he says, you know, the

599
00:32:17,240 --> 00:32:19,520
Speaker 1: tariffs are are definitely going on. I'm not changing. Let's

600
00:32:19,520 --> 00:32:20,040
Speaker 1: take a listen.

601
00:32:20,360 --> 00:32:22,720
Speaker 9: No, I'm not looking. We've been ripped off for years,

602
00:32:22,720 --> 00:32:24,520
Speaker 9: and we're not going to be ripped off anymore now.

603
00:32:24,520 --> 00:32:27,080
Speaker 9: I'm not going to bend at all. Aluminum or steel

604
00:32:28,000 --> 00:32:31,080
Speaker 9: or cars, We're not going to bend. We've been ripped

605
00:32:31,080 --> 00:32:35,000
Speaker 9: off as a country for many, many years. We've been

606
00:32:35,040 --> 00:32:39,480
Speaker 9: subjected to costs that we shouldn't be subjected to. In

607
00:32:39,520 --> 00:32:41,960
Speaker 9: the case of Canada, we're spending two hundred billion a

608
00:32:42,040 --> 00:32:45,080
Speaker 9: year to subsidize Canada. I love Canada, I love the

609
00:32:45,080 --> 00:32:48,120
Speaker 9: people of Canada. I love I have many friends in Canada,

610
00:32:49,000 --> 00:32:53,040
Speaker 9: the great one, Wayne Gretzky, the great Wayne Gretzky, the

611
00:32:53,120 --> 00:32:57,560
Speaker 9: great one. But we have many people in Canada that

612
00:32:57,720 --> 00:32:59,320
Speaker 9: are good friends of mine.

613
00:32:59,440 --> 00:33:01,440
Speaker 8: But you know, the United.

614
00:33:01,200 --> 00:33:05,400
Speaker 7: States can't subsidize the country for two hundred billion dollars

615
00:33:05,480 --> 00:33:08,480
Speaker 7: a year. We don't need their cars, we don't need

616
00:33:08,520 --> 00:33:12,760
Speaker 7: their energy, we don't need their lumber, we don't need anything.

617
00:33:12,400 --> 00:33:13,120
Speaker 10: That they.

618
00:33:14,520 --> 00:33:16,320
Speaker 9: That they get it. We do it because we want

619
00:33:16,360 --> 00:33:18,800
Speaker 9: to be helpful. But it comes a point when you

620
00:33:18,920 --> 00:33:21,480
Speaker 9: just can't do that. You have to run your own country.

621
00:33:22,440 --> 00:33:24,240
Speaker 1: So that's kind of the you know, the pitch he's

622
00:33:24,280 --> 00:33:27,080
Speaker 1: making today, at least about why teriffs on Canada in

623
00:33:27,120 --> 00:33:29,840
Speaker 1: particular makes sense, and you know what really caused kind

624
00:33:29,840 --> 00:33:34,280
Speaker 1: of the market massive drop there later in the day

625
00:33:34,320 --> 00:33:36,080
Speaker 1: were those comments that no, we're not going to bend

626
00:33:36,120 --> 00:33:38,920
Speaker 1: at all because they have certain tarrafs already in place,

627
00:33:39,000 --> 00:33:41,440
Speaker 1: and then much broader set of tariffs set to go

628
00:33:41,600 --> 00:33:45,280
Speaker 1: into place on April second, the reciprocal teriffs plus supposedly

629
00:33:45,280 --> 00:33:47,280
Speaker 1: going back to the you know, twenty five percent across

630
00:33:47,280 --> 00:33:49,520
Speaker 1: the board terrace with Canada and Mexico at that point.

631
00:33:49,600 --> 00:33:50,880
Speaker 1: So that's kind of where we are am.

632
00:33:51,480 --> 00:33:54,800
Speaker 8: Yeah, And I continue to think the only way to

633
00:33:55,280 --> 00:33:59,080
Speaker 8: make any sense in Trump's mind of what's happening is

634
00:33:59,120 --> 00:34:02,240
Speaker 8: that to the point about people trying to figure out

635
00:34:02,240 --> 00:34:05,120
Speaker 8: what the bottom is here, he doesn't want anybody to

636
00:34:05,120 --> 00:34:08,640
Speaker 8: be able to figure that out. And I don't particularly

637
00:34:08,640 --> 00:34:11,600
Speaker 8: think that's the most effective way to bring jobs back

638
00:34:11,640 --> 00:34:16,400
Speaker 8: to the United States and to prosecute these politically, So

639
00:34:16,680 --> 00:34:20,319
Speaker 8: I don't think it's the most defensible approach. I think

640
00:34:20,360 --> 00:34:26,120
Speaker 8: his logic is that he genuinely does not want anybody

641
00:34:26,160 --> 00:34:28,680
Speaker 8: to know when he is going to stop. I think

642
00:34:28,719 --> 00:34:32,319
Speaker 8: he does have plans to I don't think he goes

643
00:34:32,360 --> 00:34:34,759
Speaker 8: through for a long time with all of this. I

644
00:34:34,880 --> 00:34:37,360
Speaker 8: just I think he's way too sensitive to the market.

645
00:34:37,440 --> 00:34:40,359
Speaker 8: So I think if this starts to be sustained, you'll

646
00:34:40,360 --> 00:34:42,719
Speaker 8: start to see I mean, I think we've already seen

647
00:34:42,800 --> 00:34:46,680
Speaker 8: some of it, some like kind of more targeted approaches.

648
00:34:46,719 --> 00:34:52,120
Speaker 8: But I think his his strategy is genuinely leaving everybody,

649
00:34:52,200 --> 00:34:56,440
Speaker 8: including his own top staff, out of the loop on

650
00:34:56,480 --> 00:34:59,239
Speaker 8: what his personal plans are to like sort of wave

651
00:34:59,280 --> 00:35:00,600
Speaker 8: the wand at any give a moment.

652
00:35:01,040 --> 00:35:03,799
Speaker 1: Yeah, there was a moment there, ran I didn't quite

653
00:35:03,840 --> 00:35:06,600
Speaker 1: get to it where he he sort of acknowledges that

654
00:35:06,600 --> 00:35:11,799
Speaker 1: that borders are just arbitrary lines drawn, you know, yeah,

655
00:35:13,800 --> 00:35:18,319
Speaker 1: so based open borders Trump. Okay, so here's a thread.

656
00:35:18,080 --> 00:35:20,200
Speaker 2: That And not to harp too much on this, but

657
00:35:20,320 --> 00:35:22,680
Speaker 2: that on this point on the lumber, he brought the

658
00:35:22,760 --> 00:35:24,880
Speaker 2: lumber up again. Right, what do you mean, what do

659
00:35:24,920 --> 00:35:27,959
Speaker 2: you mean we don't need their lumber like we.

660
00:35:27,880 --> 00:35:33,560
Speaker 1: Don't have especially at a time when construction materials have

661
00:35:33,719 --> 00:35:36,640
Speaker 1: already you know, they were some of the highest ticket

662
00:35:36,640 --> 00:35:39,160
Speaker 1: items in terms of how much their price increased due

663
00:35:39,200 --> 00:35:43,480
Speaker 1: to inflation. So we have a massive housing shortage. You

664
00:35:43,760 --> 00:35:47,239
Speaker 1: already cost too much to build, and so you're just

665
00:35:47,400 --> 00:35:49,960
Speaker 1: exacerbating that and you know, we've been covering it, you

666
00:35:49,960 --> 00:35:52,719
Speaker 1: guys know on this show relentlessly. How housing is just

667
00:35:52,760 --> 00:35:57,160
Speaker 1: such a core issue, creating this sense of precarity and

668
00:35:57,239 --> 00:36:00,200
Speaker 1: sense of frustration and ability to get ahead and this

669
00:36:00,239 --> 00:36:02,600
Speaker 1: sort of like stable life. And yeah, you're you are

670
00:36:02,719 --> 00:36:06,880
Speaker 1: actively increasing one of the main inputs. And there's other

671
00:36:06,920 --> 00:36:09,879
Speaker 1: construction materials at play here as well, coming from Canada too,

672
00:36:09,960 --> 00:36:13,600
Speaker 1: not to mention the eighty percent of our fertilizer from Canada,

673
00:36:13,719 --> 00:36:16,200
Speaker 1: Like yeah, actually we do kind of any of that stuff.

674
00:36:16,600 --> 00:36:18,920
Speaker 2: Right that that's where that's where the fertilizer is. Like

675
00:36:19,320 --> 00:36:22,120
Speaker 2: you could, you could produce a lot of phosphorus and

676
00:36:22,560 --> 00:36:24,960
Speaker 2: fertilizer out of Florida, but that would require ripping up

677
00:36:24,960 --> 00:36:28,279
Speaker 2: a lot of the communities there. And also, lumber is

678
00:36:28,360 --> 00:36:32,640
Speaker 2: better the hot farther north that it grows, So we

679
00:36:32,680 --> 00:36:37,359
Speaker 2: could get cheaper, better lumber from Canada, or we could

680
00:36:37,360 --> 00:36:42,520
Speaker 2: get more expensive, crappier lumber from Russia. And what he's

681
00:36:42,560 --> 00:36:45,480
Speaker 2: pushing us is towards Siberian lumber. So we're going to

682
00:36:45,520 --> 00:36:48,719
Speaker 2: pay twenty thirty forty percent more for materials sure worse

683
00:36:48,760 --> 00:36:52,560
Speaker 2: material cost to housing. And maybe the American people would

684
00:36:52,600 --> 00:36:55,520
Speaker 2: do that if you were like, here's why we're doing that. Yeah,

685
00:36:56,000 --> 00:36:56,960
Speaker 2: there is no why.

686
00:36:56,760 --> 00:37:01,120
Speaker 1: To it right, and and I mean hard to like

687
00:37:01,239 --> 00:37:03,719
Speaker 1: really sell people on a vision of we should be like,

688
00:37:03,920 --> 00:37:06,799
Speaker 1: you know, getting more into the tree growing and fertilizer

689
00:37:07,480 --> 00:37:09,600
Speaker 1: making business when in.

690
00:37:09,640 --> 00:37:12,839
Speaker 2: All our national forests and that wood isn't as good

691
00:37:12,880 --> 00:37:14,319
Speaker 2: as the wood way up in the north, and then

692
00:37:14,320 --> 00:37:15,720
Speaker 2: we don't have national forests anymore.

693
00:37:16,080 --> 00:37:16,640
Speaker 1: Is that right?

694
00:37:16,800 --> 00:37:18,480
Speaker 2: Is that the plan right?

695
00:37:18,640 --> 00:37:21,480
Speaker 1: Exactly exactly? I wanted to quickly go through this thread

696
00:37:21,480 --> 00:37:23,799
Speaker 1: because I thought it had some interesting pieces and then

697
00:37:23,840 --> 00:37:27,560
Speaker 1: we can move on to the next topic. You can

698
00:37:27,600 --> 00:37:32,400
Speaker 1: either go to Ukraine or we can go to the

699
00:37:32,440 --> 00:37:33,280
Speaker 1: court decisions.

700
00:37:33,480 --> 00:37:36,480
Speaker 8: But was sorry, would say super quick point is that

701
00:37:36,560 --> 00:37:39,279
Speaker 8: if you have, if you telegraph a clear plan, if

702
00:37:39,280 --> 00:37:43,120
Speaker 8: you want to reshore some like lumber for example, you're

703
00:37:43,200 --> 00:37:46,200
Speaker 8: you're helping people make that bet on certain states or

704
00:37:46,239 --> 00:37:50,600
Speaker 8: certain strategies for US lumber or US manufacturing or whatever.

705
00:37:50,680 --> 00:37:52,960
Speaker 8: But if people don't know, maybe they're just going to

706
00:37:53,040 --> 00:37:54,960
Speaker 8: bet elsewhere where it seems more stable.

707
00:37:55,080 --> 00:37:58,319
Speaker 1: So anyway, yeah, that's that's exactly right, Like, you know,

708
00:37:58,560 --> 00:38:01,760
Speaker 1: if the chaos makes it impossible for anyone to actually

709
00:38:01,800 --> 00:38:05,160
Speaker 1: bet on like reshoring anything because you just you just

710
00:38:05,200 --> 00:38:08,600
Speaker 1: don't know. So here's here's a timeline the trade war,

711
00:38:09,000 --> 00:38:11,640
Speaker 1: and they were ramped up into February. First, market peaked

712
00:38:11,640 --> 00:38:13,640
Speaker 1: on the nineteenth, even as more tariffs went live in

713
00:38:13,640 --> 00:38:15,920
Speaker 1: early March. The real turning point was March sixth. That's

714
00:38:15,920 --> 00:38:18,960
Speaker 1: when Trump said he's not watching the stock market. So

715
00:38:19,600 --> 00:38:22,160
Speaker 1: we've that's been sort of the story of this market movement.

716
00:38:22,239 --> 00:38:26,800
Speaker 1: Is Trump's words really causing these these cycles of crashes.

717
00:38:27,360 --> 00:38:29,560
Speaker 1: Buyers have been crushed in this downturns and is something

718
00:38:29,560 --> 00:38:33,000
Speaker 1: you mentioned before, Ryan SMP has not seen in back

719
00:38:33,000 --> 00:38:35,680
Speaker 1: to back gains for fifteen consecutive trading days, longest streak

720
00:38:35,680 --> 00:38:38,360
Speaker 1: since April twenty twenty four, also the fifth longest stress

721
00:38:38,360 --> 00:38:42,000
Speaker 1: since the twenty twenty pandemic. Market uncertainty is at its

722
00:38:42,080 --> 00:38:46,000
Speaker 1: highest since twenty twenty. Current drawdown in the Magnificent Seven. Now,

723
00:38:46,000 --> 00:38:48,080
Speaker 1: this is something we've been talking a lot about and

724
00:38:48,120 --> 00:38:51,200
Speaker 1: it creates tremendous risk in terms of our economy and

725
00:38:51,239 --> 00:38:54,319
Speaker 1: certainly our stock market. You know, these seven stocks make

726
00:38:54,440 --> 00:38:58,240
Speaker 1: up a huge percentage of our stock market, and most

727
00:38:58,280 --> 00:39:00,759
Speaker 1: of the growth that we've been seeing has been tied

728
00:39:00,800 --> 00:39:04,959
Speaker 1: to these stocks. Tesla has led the the selloff. Here,

729
00:39:05,239 --> 00:39:10,480
Speaker 1: Fifth down fifty percent, Crazy, Nvidia down, Google, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft,

730
00:39:10,560 --> 00:39:13,920
Speaker 1: and Apple all taking significant losses. So that's the magnificent seven.

731
00:39:14,280 --> 00:39:17,160
Speaker 1: Hedge funds sold global stocks at their fastest pace in

732
00:39:17,280 --> 00:39:20,839
Speaker 1: four years. So the hedge funds are, you know, selling off,

733
00:39:20,920 --> 00:39:23,960
Speaker 1: and I think those institutional sales are part of what

734
00:39:24,120 --> 00:39:26,920
Speaker 1: is leading the significant decline. He says. This is the

735
00:39:26,960 --> 00:39:30,640
Speaker 1: fastest drop of such magnitude since twenty twenty. Also, this

736
00:39:30,760 --> 00:39:34,200
Speaker 1: chart comparison of Trump one point zero this green line

737
00:39:34,560 --> 00:39:37,760
Speaker 1: versus Trump two point zero. That's how things are looking

738
00:39:37,920 --> 00:39:40,920
Speaker 1: currently down eight percent since January twentieth, which exceeds any

739
00:39:41,000 --> 00:39:44,560
Speaker 1: drawdown scene in Trump's one point zhos first year. Clearly

740
00:39:44,600 --> 00:39:48,360
Speaker 1: been a shift in Trump's approach. Furthermore, sentiment has shifted

741
00:39:48,400 --> 00:39:50,920
Speaker 1: in the complete opposite direction. The survey now has a

742
00:39:50,920 --> 00:39:54,759
Speaker 1: bearish reading fifty nine point two percent. You've also got

743
00:39:54,760 --> 00:39:58,960
Speaker 1: the US lagging global market. So again an indication like

744
00:39:59,120 --> 00:40:01,200
Speaker 1: as if you needed any, that this is something that's

745
00:40:01,280 --> 00:40:04,440
Speaker 1: really specific to the particular policies that are being pursued

746
00:40:04,840 --> 00:40:07,359
Speaker 1: here in the US of A and not reflective of

747
00:40:07,400 --> 00:40:11,959
Speaker 1: some larger global phenomenon. And then here's some one last

748
00:40:11,960 --> 00:40:14,400
Speaker 1: thing that's that's interesting too is that there was some

749
00:40:14,440 --> 00:40:18,200
Speaker 1: good inflation data this week that seemed to indicate Okay,

750
00:40:18,200 --> 00:40:20,400
Speaker 1: inflation is coming down, moving in the right direction. I

751
00:40:20,440 --> 00:40:24,000
Speaker 1: will say there are some caveats to that, number one

752
00:40:24,040 --> 00:40:26,880
Speaker 1: being that this was a measure of inflation prior to

753
00:40:26,960 --> 00:40:29,839
Speaker 1: most of the tariffs being put into place, so still

754
00:40:29,840 --> 00:40:32,120
Speaker 1: a lot of question marks about what that impact will

755
00:40:32,160 --> 00:40:36,000
Speaker 1: ultimately be. But they say, you know, even with those

756
00:40:36,080 --> 00:40:40,680
Speaker 1: numbers coming in better than expected, they're still continued to

757
00:40:40,800 --> 00:40:43,520
Speaker 1: that really didn't change the game or make people, you know,

758
00:40:43,560 --> 00:40:46,200
Speaker 1: put people more at ease in terms of this this

759
00:40:46,280 --> 00:40:48,359
Speaker 1: sell off in the economic position. And you know, I've

760
00:40:48,360 --> 00:40:52,360
Speaker 1: seen all kinds of measures of you know, possibility of

761
00:40:52,440 --> 00:40:56,280
Speaker 1: recession on the rise actually can pull up. JP Morgan

762
00:40:56,440 --> 00:41:00,239
Speaker 1: had this very like the dramatic statement, I'll find that

763
00:41:00,280 --> 00:41:02,200
Speaker 1: while you, guys, Emily, why don't you go ahead and

764
00:41:02,520 --> 00:41:04,320
Speaker 1: reflect on some of those comments from that thread.

765
00:41:04,880 --> 00:41:07,960
Speaker 8: Well, I mean, again, I think it's just the same

766
00:41:08,239 --> 00:41:11,439
Speaker 8: type of thing that like, I'm generally I think there's

767
00:41:11,440 --> 00:41:15,960
Speaker 8: actually some real meat to how Trump has approached this

768
00:41:16,200 --> 00:41:19,560
Speaker 8: when it's compared with how it was approached by Biden

769
00:41:19,719 --> 00:41:21,600
Speaker 8: or how it would have been approached by some type

770
00:41:21,600 --> 00:41:25,239
Speaker 8: of like middle of the line republican establishment republican. But

771
00:41:25,280 --> 00:41:27,719
Speaker 8: I think that's just like what's frustrating is that there's

772
00:41:27,719 --> 00:41:30,360
Speaker 8: a better way to do all of this that would

773
00:41:30,360 --> 00:41:34,200
Speaker 8: have managed some of the fallout. So that to me

774
00:41:34,320 --> 00:41:37,120
Speaker 8: is just like a lack of a sort of a

775
00:41:37,200 --> 00:41:39,840
Speaker 8: lack of clarity. You don't have to telegraph everything. You

776
00:41:39,880 --> 00:41:42,160
Speaker 8: don't have to, you know, give you don't have to

777
00:41:42,160 --> 00:41:44,040
Speaker 8: try to game the markets one way or the other.

778
00:41:44,520 --> 00:41:47,440
Speaker 8: Oh there's that beautiful quote, the most beautiful quote. You

779
00:41:47,440 --> 00:41:48,400
Speaker 8: gotta read this, crystal.

780
00:41:48,760 --> 00:41:51,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, so this is a note from JP Morgan's analyst,

781
00:41:51,880 --> 00:41:54,320
Speaker 1: and oh you can get we can get Ryan's reaction

782
00:41:54,440 --> 00:41:56,680
Speaker 1: to that fifty Days of Gray while that was fast.

783
00:41:56,719 --> 00:41:59,399
Speaker 1: Also the Reconciliation bill and a Swan song Fernado. Here's

784
00:41:59,440 --> 00:42:03,000
Speaker 1: the interesting thing about the stock market. It cannot be indicted, arrested,

785
00:42:03,080 --> 00:42:06,160
Speaker 1: or deported. It cannot be intimidated, threatened, or bullied. It

786
00:42:06,160 --> 00:42:09,920
Speaker 1: has no gender, ethnicity, or religion. It cannot be fired, furloughed,

787
00:42:10,040 --> 00:42:13,760
Speaker 1: or defunded. It cannot be primary before the next midterm elections.

788
00:42:13,760 --> 00:42:16,719
Speaker 1: And it cannot be seized, nationalized, or invaded. It is

789
00:42:16,760 --> 00:42:22,520
Speaker 1: the ultimate voting machine, reflecting prospects for earnings, growth, stability, liquidity, inflation, taxation,

790
00:42:22,680 --> 00:42:26,799
Speaker 1: and predictable rule of law. So this is the Wall

791
00:42:26,800 --> 00:42:29,880
Speaker 1: Streeters very much in their feelings on this one, for sure,

792
00:42:30,640 --> 00:42:34,960
Speaker 1: like all the unconstitutional power grab, the defunding of Medicaid,

793
00:42:35,320 --> 00:42:38,320
Speaker 1: like the destruction of the CFPB, like they're all about

794
00:42:38,600 --> 00:42:41,720
Speaker 1: all of that. But when you mess with the stock market,

795
00:42:41,880 --> 00:42:45,320
Speaker 1: that's where we that's where we draw the line.

796
00:42:45,040 --> 00:42:46,000
Speaker 2: To the barricades.

797
00:42:46,280 --> 00:42:51,160
Speaker 1: That's your incredible stuff. You guys want to go to

798
00:42:51,680 --> 00:42:54,480
Speaker 1: Ukraine or the court cases next? We could do either

799
00:42:54,520 --> 00:42:59,560
Speaker 1: one dealer's choice. All right, we'll pull up. I've got

800
00:42:59,600 --> 00:43:03,040
Speaker 1: the I've got some Ukraine stuff here. So you guys know,

801
00:43:03,120 --> 00:43:07,320
Speaker 1: Zelenski agreed to a US proposal for a thirty day ceasefire.

802
00:43:07,360 --> 00:43:10,440
Speaker 1: So we're kind of waiting on response from Putin as

803
00:43:10,440 --> 00:43:12,719
Speaker 1: to how he would receive this. And he received it

804
00:43:12,760 --> 00:43:15,759
Speaker 1: in a very Putin like way, you know, rejecting it

805
00:43:15,840 --> 00:43:19,879
Speaker 1: and asking for conditions which you know are probably are

806
00:43:19,920 --> 00:43:23,320
Speaker 1: totally unacceptable to Ukraine, probably unacceptable to the US as well,

807
00:43:23,360 --> 00:43:25,279
Speaker 1: but framing it is like, yeah, I'm open to that,

808
00:43:25,360 --> 00:43:26,920
Speaker 1: as long as you do everything that I want you

809
00:43:27,040 --> 00:43:30,200
Speaker 1: to do. Here are his comments, and go and pull

810
00:43:30,239 --> 00:43:31,719
Speaker 1: this up. I'm not sure I've been listened to this.

811
00:43:31,760 --> 00:43:34,399
Speaker 1: Hopefully this is dubbed. We'll find out. We'll find out

812
00:43:34,400 --> 00:43:36,440
Speaker 1: together here in real time.

813
00:43:40,280 --> 00:43:47,520
Speaker 11: With the we agree with the propositions to stop hostilities,

814
00:43:47,680 --> 00:43:53,240
Speaker 11: but we proceed from the fact that such ceasefire should

815
00:43:53,320 --> 00:43:58,319
Speaker 11: be such that would lead to a permanent peace and

816
00:43:58,440 --> 00:44:06,160
Speaker 11: remove the initial original causes of the crisis. We agree.

817
00:44:06,280 --> 00:44:11,160
Speaker 1: So there you go the details as far as you

818
00:44:11,200 --> 00:44:14,400
Speaker 1: know the conditions that led to the crisis, you know

819
00:44:14,440 --> 00:44:16,840
Speaker 1: some of the things that they floated outside of just

820
00:44:16,880 --> 00:44:19,960
Speaker 1: this state and from Putin is like all these regions

821
00:44:20,000 --> 00:44:22,520
Speaker 1: that we took, we want to keep them. Not only

822
00:44:22,520 --> 00:44:24,920
Speaker 1: do we not want Ukraine and NATO, which you know

823
00:44:25,000 --> 00:44:28,480
Speaker 1: that one is pretty obvious. We don't want any foreign

824
00:44:28,520 --> 00:44:33,480
Speaker 1: soldiers like European peacekeepers or anyone else to be in Ukraine.

825
00:44:33,560 --> 00:44:36,919
Speaker 1: Ukraine has to be fully demilitarized, et cetera. So I mean, Ryan,

826
00:44:36,920 --> 00:44:39,120
Speaker 1: how do you how are you reading this response? The

827
00:44:39,160 --> 00:44:42,040
Speaker 1: Trump administration is trying to spin it as hopeful. Zelenski

828
00:44:42,239 --> 00:44:44,000
Speaker 1: is very much like I told you, guys like you

829
00:44:44,040 --> 00:44:46,960
Speaker 1: can't deal with this dude, really and so how did

830
00:44:46,960 --> 00:44:48,120
Speaker 1: you read this exchange?

831
00:44:48,480 --> 00:44:52,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, he also talked about the Ukrainian soldiers who are

832
00:44:52,120 --> 00:44:56,480
Speaker 2: in the cursed region and apparently about five hundred of

833
00:44:56,480 --> 00:44:58,839
Speaker 2: them that this does seem to be confirmed, about five

834
00:44:58,920 --> 00:45:03,160
Speaker 2: hundred Ukrainian soldiers rendered there. There are there are many

835
00:45:03,160 --> 00:45:08,160
Speaker 2: more Ukrainians who are occupying the Karsek region of Russia,

836
00:45:08,719 --> 00:45:14,880
Speaker 2: and according to Putin, Russia has those folks surrounded Ukraine.

837
00:45:14,960 --> 00:45:17,200
Speaker 2: Says that that's that that's not the case, that he's

838
00:45:17,239 --> 00:45:20,200
Speaker 2: he's bluffing. And so what Putin is kind of what

839
00:45:20,600 --> 00:45:23,160
Speaker 2: Putin is saying here is if we do a ceasefire,

840
00:45:23,280 --> 00:45:25,719
Speaker 2: what about these guys. I don't want to do a

841
00:45:25,760 --> 00:45:30,359
Speaker 2: ceasefire with these Ukrainian soldiers on Russian territory, which is,

842
00:45:30,960 --> 00:45:32,719
Speaker 2: you know, kind of an ironic thing for him to

843
00:45:32,719 --> 00:45:35,600
Speaker 2: complain about, given that he wants a ceasefire with Russian

844
00:45:35,600 --> 00:45:41,200
Speaker 2: soldiers and the Ukrainian territory. So so he said, like,

845
00:45:41,239 --> 00:45:44,560
Speaker 2: who who who like decides whether or not along this

846
00:45:44,640 --> 00:45:47,319
Speaker 2: two thousand mile front, somebody has broken the ceasefire? What

847
00:45:47,320 --> 00:45:49,839
Speaker 2: do we do with those soldiers? So, I mean, those

848
00:45:49,880 --> 00:45:53,120
Speaker 2: are actual questions that that could be answered. It does

849
00:45:53,160 --> 00:45:56,920
Speaker 2: seem like he's buying for time perhaps to try to,

850
00:45:57,960 --> 00:46:01,160
Speaker 2: you know, kind of push the Ukrainians completely out of Kursk,

851
00:46:01,840 --> 00:46:04,480
Speaker 2: so that when there is a ceasefire, he has lost

852
00:46:04,480 --> 00:46:10,480
Speaker 2: no territory and he has only gained territory. And you know,

853
00:46:10,520 --> 00:46:13,719
Speaker 2: he also floated that he's ready to do a call

854
00:46:13,760 --> 00:46:16,239
Speaker 2: with Donald Trump YEP, which I thought was interesting, called

855
00:46:16,280 --> 00:46:18,320
Speaker 2: him donald Trump, not the American President.

856
00:46:18,480 --> 00:46:23,280
Speaker 1: Oh is that what? I didn't know that interesting? Another

857
00:46:23,360 --> 00:46:26,840
Speaker 1: thing is we as we talked about actually when you

858
00:46:26,880 --> 00:46:29,640
Speaker 1: and I co hosted this week, you know, you have

859
00:46:29,680 --> 00:46:31,640
Speaker 1: to ask yourself, well, what incentive does Russia have at

860
00:46:31,680 --> 00:46:33,200
Speaker 1: this point for a ceasefire? And that gets to what

861
00:46:33,320 --> 00:46:35,440
Speaker 1: Ryan is saying about, you know, Kirsk in particular. But

862
00:46:35,520 --> 00:46:38,440
Speaker 1: they feel like the a thirty day ceasefire would only

863
00:46:38,480 --> 00:46:42,640
Speaker 1: benefit Ukraine and allow them to sort of regroup and

864
00:46:42,880 --> 00:46:46,319
Speaker 1: rearm and reassess, et cetera. And you know, I don't

865
00:46:46,320 --> 00:46:47,880
Speaker 1: think that they're probably wrong about.

866
00:46:47,640 --> 00:46:50,920
Speaker 8: That unless a thirty day seas fire does involve like

867
00:46:51,000 --> 00:46:54,600
Speaker 8: significant territorial concessions on Ukraine's behalf. One of the interesting

868
00:46:54,600 --> 00:46:56,640
Speaker 8: things about Kursk. I hadn't thought about it this way,

869
00:46:56,640 --> 00:46:58,880
Speaker 8: but I talked to George Beedy of the Quincy Institute

870
00:46:58,920 --> 00:47:01,279
Speaker 8: earlier this week, and he would saying he thinks what's

871
00:47:01,280 --> 00:47:04,560
Speaker 8: happening in Curse right now is actually a sign of

872
00:47:06,040 --> 00:47:11,799
Speaker 8: potentially Russia trying to get through or get to negotiation

873
00:47:12,000 --> 00:47:15,279
Speaker 8: seriously more quickly, because as soon as you sort of

874
00:47:15,360 --> 00:47:19,400
Speaker 8: get curs out of the way for them, they'll and

875
00:47:19,440 --> 00:47:21,200
Speaker 8: so maybe it is like I feel if it was

876
00:47:21,239 --> 00:47:23,640
Speaker 8: you or Ryan who said maybe buying time, like that's

877
00:47:23,680 --> 00:47:27,720
Speaker 8: actually possible that in a way, it seems totally counterintuitive

878
00:47:27,760 --> 00:47:31,839
Speaker 8: because it looks like they're making significant advancements on the battlefield,

879
00:47:32,200 --> 00:47:35,440
Speaker 8: but it takes Cursk off the table for them. So

880
00:47:35,520 --> 00:47:37,960
Speaker 8: long as they do that in a way that makes

881
00:47:38,040 --> 00:47:40,920
Speaker 8: the deal work, they can can take it to the

882
00:47:40,960 --> 00:47:44,959
Speaker 8: Russian public and you know, come away from the negotiations

883
00:47:45,000 --> 00:47:48,440
Speaker 8: looking like they were on top. So that's it's a

884
00:47:48,480 --> 00:47:50,839
Speaker 8: reading that I hadn't thought of actually that I found

885
00:47:50,840 --> 00:47:51,520
Speaker 8: pretty interesting.

886
00:47:51,800 --> 00:47:54,759
Speaker 1: That is interesting. I wanted to play this sound. This

887
00:47:54,880 --> 00:47:57,480
Speaker 1: is Andrew and Politano, who has been you know, he's

888
00:47:57,520 --> 00:48:00,480
Speaker 1: been pushing for He is kind of, you know, kind

889
00:48:00,520 --> 00:48:03,440
Speaker 1: of the un orthodox view with regard to Ukraine. He's

890
00:48:03,440 --> 00:48:06,000
Speaker 1: been pushing for peace, etc. He just is back from

891
00:48:06,000 --> 00:48:09,879
Speaker 1: interviewing Lavrov in Moscow and he says he doesn't think

892
00:48:09,960 --> 00:48:11,879
Speaker 1: Russia has any interest in the cease fire. Lests take

893
00:48:11,880 --> 00:48:12,279
Speaker 1: a listen to.

894
00:48:12,280 --> 00:48:14,279
Speaker 10: That when this is over. He came over to me

895
00:48:14,320 --> 00:48:17,640
Speaker 10: and we just chatted almost like you and I are

896
00:48:17,760 --> 00:48:21,719
Speaker 10: without the cameras on us at all. And I did

897
00:48:21,760 --> 00:48:26,440
Speaker 10: say to him, does President of Putin have any interest

898
00:48:26,920 --> 00:48:28,520
Speaker 10: in a ceasefire at this time?

899
00:48:28,640 --> 00:48:28,879
Speaker 6: Now?

900
00:48:29,400 --> 00:48:33,920
Speaker 10: This was a day before Secretary of State Rubio announced

901
00:48:33,960 --> 00:48:37,400
Speaker 10: to that Ukraine had agreed to ceasefire. He looked at

902
00:48:37,400 --> 00:48:39,600
Speaker 10: me and he said, why would we do that now?

903
00:48:39,880 --> 00:48:40,240
Speaker 9: Wow?

904
00:48:40,360 --> 00:48:44,359
Speaker 10: Because they believe that they're within interest of consummating their

905
00:48:44,400 --> 00:48:45,839
Speaker 10: goals in the war.

906
00:48:46,040 --> 00:48:46,600
Speaker 9: Oh my god.

907
00:48:46,880 --> 00:48:50,920
Speaker 1: And that actually dovetails maybe. Surprisingly, his assessment is the

908
00:48:50,920 --> 00:48:54,000
Speaker 1: same as what US intel agencies are telling the Washington

909
00:48:54,040 --> 00:48:58,120
Speaker 1: Post right here. This is Putin still intends Ukraine domination.

910
00:48:58,320 --> 00:49:01,759
Speaker 1: US intelligence reports say, while offering a cautious assessment on

911
00:49:01,840 --> 00:49:05,680
Speaker 1: ceasefire chances, spy agencies say Russian leader is determined to

912
00:49:05,760 --> 00:49:09,440
Speaker 1: hold sway over Kiev. This is, you know, source to

913
00:49:09,440 --> 00:49:12,520
Speaker 1: classified US intel reports, including one earlier this month, cast

914
00:49:12,600 --> 00:49:15,000
Speaker 1: doubt on Putin's willings to end the war against Ukraine,

915
00:49:15,000 --> 00:49:17,480
Speaker 1: assessing the Russian president is not veered from his maximous

916
00:49:17,520 --> 00:49:21,160
Speaker 1: goal of dominating his western neighbor. According to people familiar

917
00:49:21,239 --> 00:49:24,080
Speaker 1: with the analysis, Ryan, what did you make in particular

918
00:49:24,320 --> 00:49:26,960
Speaker 1: of this, you know, leak to the strategic leak to

919
00:49:27,000 --> 00:49:27,760
Speaker 1: the Washup Post.

920
00:49:28,280 --> 00:49:30,680
Speaker 2: Right, Whenever whenever there's this intel leak to the wash

921
00:49:30,719 --> 00:49:32,920
Speaker 2: and Post, you have to ask, Okay, why did the

922
00:49:32,960 --> 00:49:37,160
Speaker 2: CIA leak this? And in this case, I think it

923
00:49:37,200 --> 00:49:40,200
Speaker 2: would be to you know, send try to message to

924
00:49:40,320 --> 00:49:43,440
Speaker 2: Trump like the same thing that Neapolitano was saying that

925
00:49:43,480 --> 00:49:46,600
Speaker 2: I know that, Hey, we know you want a peace deal,

926
00:49:46,600 --> 00:49:51,640
Speaker 2: but Putin really doesn't want one right now? You know there,

927
00:49:51,680 --> 00:49:54,440
Speaker 2: you know there there may have been a much better

928
00:49:54,480 --> 00:49:56,920
Speaker 2: deal on the table. In March of twenty twenty two,

929
00:49:57,800 --> 00:50:01,799
Speaker 2: the Buid administration and the UK and NATO insisted that

930
00:50:02,320 --> 00:50:05,760
Speaker 2: Ukraine fight on instead, and now they're at a place

931
00:50:05,760 --> 00:50:08,920
Speaker 2: where they as as Trump said in the White House,

932
00:50:09,520 --> 00:50:14,480
Speaker 2: you have no cards. Yeah, So you're appealing to the

933
00:50:14,480 --> 00:50:18,719
Speaker 2: good will of Vladimir Putin, just right, Good luck with that.

934
00:50:18,800 --> 00:50:21,440
Speaker 2: I think you know what Putin could do, and I

935
00:50:21,520 --> 00:50:24,840
Speaker 2: think understands he could do. His focus his energy on

936
00:50:24,920 --> 00:50:29,160
Speaker 2: getting the Ukrainians out of the Curse region and then say, Okay,

937
00:50:29,239 --> 00:50:34,520
Speaker 2: I'm done, Like everything we have is ours, and you

938
00:50:34,640 --> 00:50:36,680
Speaker 2: keep fighting if you want, and if you keep fighting,

939
00:50:36,760 --> 00:50:39,040
Speaker 2: will keep fighting. But if not, we're going to keep

940
00:50:39,040 --> 00:50:42,480
Speaker 2: this terror, We're going to keep this territory, and then

941
00:50:42,640 --> 00:50:45,719
Speaker 2: they will all they will buy definition kind of you know,

942
00:50:45,719 --> 00:50:50,040
Speaker 2: politically dominate. You'd have a rump like hard right Ukrainian

943
00:50:51,000 --> 00:50:56,160
Speaker 2: resistance government left. Yeah, but without NATO you know, funding,

944
00:50:57,600 --> 00:51:00,000
Speaker 2: and with you know, twenty percent of its you know,

945
00:51:00,080 --> 00:51:04,319
Speaker 2: country gone, and with you know, the difficulties of reconstruction.

946
00:51:05,400 --> 00:51:10,279
Speaker 2: You could imagine you know, Russia having successfully kind of

947
00:51:10,320 --> 00:51:12,160
Speaker 2: neutered the threat on their border.

948
00:51:12,640 --> 00:51:14,799
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, what do you think of that, Emily? I mean,

949
00:51:14,800 --> 00:51:17,319
Speaker 1: in some ways, I think it's increasingly clear that the

950
00:51:17,320 --> 00:51:21,920
Speaker 1: Biden administration pursued the worst possible strategy. Like I have

951
00:51:22,000 --> 00:51:24,360
Speaker 1: actually become more sympathetic to the people who were like,

952
00:51:24,400 --> 00:51:27,279
Speaker 1: you got to give them everything, because what they did

953
00:51:27,320 --> 00:51:30,120
Speaker 1: instead is give them just enough to create this sort

954
00:51:30,120 --> 00:51:32,719
Speaker 1: of stalemate situation, just draw out this war to the

955
00:51:32,800 --> 00:51:36,520
Speaker 1: last Ukrainian you know. They obviously the greatest failure was

956
00:51:36,560 --> 00:51:38,600
Speaker 1: blocking the Piece deal that you know, was on the

957
00:51:38,600 --> 00:51:41,240
Speaker 1: table early on. Not that there were any guarantees there either,

958
00:51:41,320 --> 00:51:43,839
Speaker 1: but there was very live possibility and the Ukrainians were

959
00:51:43,840 --> 00:51:46,440
Speaker 1: in a much better negotiating position at that point than

960
00:51:46,480 --> 00:51:48,080
Speaker 1: they are now. I mean, that really was sort of

961
00:51:48,080 --> 00:51:50,640
Speaker 1: the cardinal sin and now at this point where you are,

962
00:51:50,719 --> 00:51:54,640
Speaker 1: you're left withero zero good options to pursue. Ultimately, Yeah,

963
00:51:54,680 --> 00:51:55,000
Speaker 1: I mean.

964
00:51:54,880 --> 00:51:56,560
Speaker 8: I completely agree with that. And it's one of the

965
00:51:56,560 --> 00:51:59,560
Speaker 8: weird things about Donald Trump and JD Vance's meeting with

966
00:51:59,600 --> 00:52:05,799
Speaker 8: the lens is that Zelenski and Joe Biden were ideologically simpatico.

967
00:52:05,960 --> 00:52:08,399
Speaker 8: Like they're they had the exact same ideology of how

968
00:52:08,600 --> 00:52:11,480
Speaker 8: Ukraine should be seen by NATO countries as an essential

969
00:52:11,719 --> 00:52:15,160
Speaker 8: buffer state that should essentially, and I'm putting it in

970
00:52:15,239 --> 00:52:17,160
Speaker 8: my words, not the way they would say it be

971
00:52:17,400 --> 00:52:22,560
Speaker 8: used as you know, a weapon is the wrong word,

972
00:52:22,640 --> 00:52:26,120
Speaker 8: but as a buffer and Ukraine should be you know,

973
00:52:26,160 --> 00:52:30,959
Speaker 8: treated that way by NATO, almost in this like colonial way.

974
00:52:31,320 --> 00:52:37,920
Speaker 8: And Trump Advance don't believe that's in America's best interests,

975
00:52:38,080 --> 00:52:42,200
Speaker 8: but as a they're the ones now tasked with disentangling

976
00:52:42,840 --> 00:52:47,520
Speaker 8: the United States from the situation and helping at least

977
00:52:47,560 --> 00:52:52,759
Speaker 8: in theory helping Ukraine stop the slaughter. And so it's

978
00:52:52,760 --> 00:52:56,399
Speaker 8: a really strange position to have an administration that disagrees

979
00:52:56,560 --> 00:52:59,600
Speaker 8: with decades of the foreign policy consensus that they're now

980
00:52:59,640 --> 00:53:02,400
Speaker 8: trying to exit from, and the leader of the country

981
00:53:02,840 --> 00:53:06,719
Speaker 8: that you're trying to negotiate with is actually of the

982
00:53:06,719 --> 00:53:10,839
Speaker 8: opposite view. It's just like super weird to see that

983
00:53:11,000 --> 00:53:14,640
Speaker 8: play out, and so I think it's very That's where

984
00:53:15,120 --> 00:53:20,520
Speaker 8: the Trump Putin conversation gets dicey, obviously, because they kind

985
00:53:20,560 --> 00:53:23,920
Speaker 8: of agree about how Ukraine has been used by NATO,

986
00:53:25,160 --> 00:53:29,680
Speaker 8: and so it's just like, does that mean ultimately Ukraine

987
00:53:29,760 --> 00:53:32,840
Speaker 8: ends up losing territory that would have retained a couple

988
00:53:32,840 --> 00:53:36,120
Speaker 8: of years back because of the hubris of the Biden

989
00:53:36,120 --> 00:53:41,600
Speaker 8: administration and NATO leaders in Europe. Probably well.

990
00:53:41,920 --> 00:53:44,120
Speaker 1: I think there's a lot of political peril here too

991
00:53:44,320 --> 00:53:46,800
Speaker 1: that I'm not sure the right tends to fully appreciate,

992
00:53:46,880 --> 00:53:50,120
Speaker 1: because you know, the the view on the right has

993
00:53:50,200 --> 00:53:53,000
Speaker 1: become quite preemnant that like, you know that we need

994
00:53:53,040 --> 00:53:56,279
Speaker 1: to pull all the military aid from Ukraine. You know,

995
00:53:56,320 --> 00:53:58,440
Speaker 1: we need to make a deal, regardless of what that

996
00:53:58,480 --> 00:54:01,280
Speaker 1: takes and how much territory Putin is allowed to acquire

997
00:54:01,360 --> 00:54:03,799
Speaker 1: like whatever it takes. And you know, it's a few

998
00:54:03,840 --> 00:54:07,000
Speaker 1: frankly I'm sympathetic to. But when you look at the

999
00:54:07,080 --> 00:54:10,960
Speaker 1: recent polling with regard to Trump, there is actually a

1000
00:54:10,960 --> 00:54:14,040
Speaker 1: lot of discontent with the way he's handled the Russian

1001
00:54:14,120 --> 00:54:18,160
Speaker 1: Ukraine war, with the people did not like the Oval

1002
00:54:18,160 --> 00:54:22,000
Speaker 1: office blow up at Zelenski, And there's still a lot

1003
00:54:22,120 --> 00:54:25,920
Speaker 1: of not among Republicans so much, but among independents and

1004
00:54:26,120 --> 00:54:29,719
Speaker 1: among Democrats and among some Republicans actually there's still a

1005
00:54:29,760 --> 00:54:32,960
Speaker 1: lot of like, Russia's the bad guys. Ukraine are the

1006
00:54:32,960 --> 00:54:37,320
Speaker 1: good guys. This is our ally, this is our vote. Yeah, yeah,

1007
00:54:37,320 --> 00:54:39,719
Speaker 1: and you know, I mean we've seen this before. It's

1008
00:54:39,719 --> 00:54:42,319
Speaker 1: not exactly the same as Afghanistan, obviously because we were

1009
00:54:42,320 --> 00:54:44,920
Speaker 1: in there for so long and because our troops were involved.

1010
00:54:45,200 --> 00:54:47,879
Speaker 1: But you know, people wanted out of Afghanistan. But then

1011
00:54:47,960 --> 00:54:50,680
Speaker 1: once we got out of Afghanistan, it was the most

1012
00:54:50,760 --> 00:54:53,120
Speaker 1: devastating thing to Joe Biden's presdency. I mean, we talk

1013
00:54:53,160 --> 00:54:56,160
Speaker 1: a lot about the economy and certainly about the genocide

1014
00:54:56,200 --> 00:54:58,160
Speaker 1: and Gaza, but in terms of just the drop and

1015
00:54:58,239 --> 00:55:02,000
Speaker 1: approval rating, the war that people wanted to be ended

1016
00:55:02,400 --> 00:55:04,600
Speaker 1: was the thing that was most devastating to his approval

1017
00:55:04,640 --> 00:55:06,759
Speaker 1: rating RNE of his entire term.

1018
00:55:08,400 --> 00:55:11,680
Speaker 2: Right, And I guess you could imagine, now these aren't

1019
00:55:12,680 --> 00:55:15,520
Speaker 2: American forces, but you could imagine that, you know, scenes

1020
00:55:15,520 --> 00:55:19,200
Speaker 2: of chaos, if things completely fall apart.

1021
00:55:20,160 --> 00:55:23,880
Speaker 1: It's just it's an admission of American failure. And voters

1022
00:55:23,880 --> 00:55:26,920
Speaker 1: don't Voters don't like that. Voters don't like that. You know,

1023
00:55:26,960 --> 00:55:28,640
Speaker 1: it's like, Okay, well, what have we been funding all

1024
00:55:28,680 --> 00:55:32,640
Speaker 1: these like what if we It looks like American weakness,

1025
00:55:33,239 --> 00:55:35,880
Speaker 1: And that's in a lot of ways it is American weakness,

1026
00:55:35,880 --> 00:55:39,680
Speaker 1: I mean, frankly, and I think, you know, voters really

1027
00:55:40,040 --> 00:55:43,160
Speaker 1: don't enjoy having to reckon with that, even if you could,

1028
00:55:43,239 --> 00:55:46,239
Speaker 1: you know, I like, it's really not Trump helped to

1029
00:55:46,280 --> 00:55:48,239
Speaker 1: create the conditions of this war, but obviously it's a

1030
00:55:48,239 --> 00:55:51,799
Speaker 1: Biden administration that owns this policy. But if he's the

1031
00:55:51,800 --> 00:55:54,560
Speaker 1: one that brings it to the end and forces that

1032
00:55:54,680 --> 00:55:58,040
Speaker 1: reckoning with the reality that this was a massive American failure,

1033
00:55:58,239 --> 00:55:59,719
Speaker 1: voters may well punish him for that.

1034
00:56:01,880 --> 00:56:05,840
Speaker 8: Voters I think in America sort of back the blue globally.

1035
00:56:06,080 --> 00:56:09,480
Speaker 8: They like the United States being seen as the policeman.

1036
00:56:09,600 --> 00:56:13,359
Speaker 8: And it's in right, like online right circles where I

1037
00:56:13,680 --> 00:56:16,200
Speaker 8: you spend a lot of time, it's easy to get

1038
00:56:17,080 --> 00:56:18,759
Speaker 8: to lose sight of the fact that the American people

1039
00:56:18,800 --> 00:56:22,239
Speaker 8: are not with the I guess broader project at the

1040
00:56:22,239 --> 00:56:25,920
Speaker 8: online right, like they're probably with the New Right, the

1041
00:56:26,040 --> 00:56:29,680
Speaker 8: sort of dvance ideology on different things, like you know,

1042
00:56:29,719 --> 00:56:32,960
Speaker 8: you can zoom in on the question, particularly of spending

1043
00:56:32,960 --> 00:56:35,080
Speaker 8: more money on Ukraine and not closing the border, like

1044
00:56:35,120 --> 00:56:37,600
Speaker 8: that was exactly why they designed that Senate bill that way.

1045
00:56:38,520 --> 00:56:41,400
Speaker 8: So you know, you it's easy to mistake those things

1046
00:56:41,719 --> 00:56:44,879
Speaker 8: for agreement with the broader project of disentangling from being

1047
00:56:44,880 --> 00:56:46,920
Speaker 8: the policeman of the world and the person who understands this,

1048
00:56:47,040 --> 00:56:50,839
Speaker 8: interestingly enough, just Donald Trump, because that's what he's sort

1049
00:56:50,880 --> 00:56:54,120
Speaker 8: of doing with Greenland and Panama, and he knows that

1050
00:56:54,120 --> 00:56:57,400
Speaker 8: that's his voters are like fine to see Greenland, Like

1051
00:56:57,440 --> 00:56:59,640
Speaker 8: people on the right, they're like, yeah, we're we're gonna

1052
00:56:59,680 --> 00:57:02,040
Speaker 8: boss Greenland around because we're the United States of America,

1053
00:57:02,760 --> 00:57:05,000
Speaker 8: and that's a it's just easy to mistake one for

1054
00:57:05,040 --> 00:57:05,319
Speaker 8: the other.

1055
00:57:05,640 --> 00:57:07,839
Speaker 2: Yeah, maybe it's wishful thinking on my part, but I

1056
00:57:07,840 --> 00:57:10,319
Speaker 2: do think that if he got a long term cease fire,

1057
00:57:11,760 --> 00:57:15,400
Speaker 2: that he would be rewarded for that, yes, but domestically

1058
00:57:15,400 --> 00:57:18,760
Speaker 2: from voters like I do. I do think people, you know,

1059
00:57:18,800 --> 00:57:20,520
Speaker 2: if he could, if he could get out of it

1060
00:57:20,640 --> 00:57:24,040
Speaker 2: somewhat cleanly, even if there are significant concessions made. Nobody

1061
00:57:24,080 --> 00:57:27,320
Speaker 2: can name, you know, the regions of Ukraine that we're

1062
00:57:27,320 --> 00:57:31,439
Speaker 2: fighting over, like nobody really cares. I think that people

1063
00:57:31,480 --> 00:57:34,680
Speaker 2: would like to see the money stop going over there, especially. Yeah,

1064
00:57:35,040 --> 00:57:38,520
Speaker 2: you know, the the resentment towards that heats up when

1065
00:57:39,120 --> 00:57:42,080
Speaker 2: you know things are when the economy is going poorly

1066
00:57:42,120 --> 00:57:44,960
Speaker 2: at home. Yeah, you wrap that up. I think he

1067
00:57:44,960 --> 00:57:45,800
Speaker 2: would be rewarded.

1068
00:57:46,120 --> 00:57:48,320
Speaker 1: So the more he destroys the economy here at home,

1069
00:57:48,800 --> 00:57:55,200
Speaker 1: the policy Well, all right, let's go ahead and get

1070
00:57:55,240 --> 00:57:58,080
Speaker 1: to these couple of court decisions before we wrap up here,

1071
00:57:58,120 --> 00:58:02,040
Speaker 1: because these were pretty significant ones. Yesterday we got from

1072
00:58:02,640 --> 00:58:04,920
Speaker 1: this judge Alsop, who I'd never heard of before but

1073
00:58:05,000 --> 00:58:07,600
Speaker 1: apparently is like very well respected in judicial circles. I

1074
00:58:07,600 --> 00:58:10,520
Speaker 1: don't know whatever that means anyway. He said that he

1075
00:58:10,600 --> 00:58:13,360
Speaker 1: issued a preliminary injunction on Trump's firing of federal workers

1076
00:58:13,360 --> 00:58:17,640
Speaker 1: in probationary periods, including some of the largest agencies, the

1077
00:58:18,040 --> 00:58:22,640
Speaker 1: Veterans Affairs USDA Department, of Defense, Department of Education, Department

1078
00:58:22,680 --> 00:58:28,280
Speaker 1: of Interior, Treasury must reinstate all fired probationary employees effective immediately.

1079
00:58:29,280 --> 00:58:32,960
Speaker 1: Eric katz Here from gov exec says this will impact

1080
00:58:32,960 --> 00:58:35,360
Speaker 1: the vast majority of those fired. Rough math about twenty

1081
00:58:35,360 --> 00:58:39,000
Speaker 1: four thousand employees just won their jobs. Back story here

1082
00:58:39,000 --> 00:58:40,880
Speaker 1: with more details from what he describes as a fairly

1083
00:58:40,960 --> 00:58:44,480
Speaker 1: explosive hearing this morning, So including some language from this

1084
00:58:44,600 --> 00:58:50,000
Speaker 1: judge that these firings were sham firings and in particular

1085
00:58:50,360 --> 00:58:52,880
Speaker 1: pointing to, you know, the way they did this, which

1086
00:58:52,880 --> 00:58:56,120
Speaker 1: really is just you know, you had a lot of

1087
00:58:56,120 --> 00:59:00,400
Speaker 1: workers who were getting perfect performance reports and maybe even

1088
00:59:00,440 --> 00:59:03,000
Speaker 1: up for promotions or just got promoted, you know, and

1089
00:59:03,040 --> 00:59:05,640
Speaker 1: that's why they were in their probationary period. And the

1090
00:59:05,800 --> 00:59:08,880
Speaker 1: justification they used is they sent out these mass emails

1091
00:59:08,880 --> 00:59:11,200
Speaker 1: that said you're being fired for poor performance, regardless of

1092
00:59:11,200 --> 00:59:13,040
Speaker 1: who the employees were. And so this judge was like,

1093
00:59:13,200 --> 00:59:15,479
Speaker 1: we see what you're doing here, Like, obviously these people

1094
00:59:15,520 --> 00:59:17,640
Speaker 1: were who you know, some of them were performing well,

1095
00:59:18,000 --> 00:59:20,400
Speaker 1: and you just said poor performance, you could get away

1096
00:59:20,400 --> 00:59:23,720
Speaker 1: with firing, with mass firing, Ryan, all of these employees

1097
00:59:23,760 --> 00:59:26,440
Speaker 1: that happened to be under this probationary status and oh,

1098
00:59:26,480 --> 00:59:28,640
Speaker 1: by the way, off as of personnel management, like, you

1099
00:59:28,680 --> 00:59:32,440
Speaker 1: don't get to do this. The individual agencies have control

1100
00:59:32,520 --> 00:59:36,720
Speaker 1: over their own HR personnel. Even in this ruling though,

1101
00:59:36,720 --> 00:59:39,360
Speaker 1: which was like fairly sweeping, there's a warning though that

1102
00:59:39,560 --> 00:59:42,760
Speaker 1: like if they do go through each individual agency and

1103
00:59:42,840 --> 00:59:44,720
Speaker 1: do what's called a reduction in force and do it

1104
00:59:44,760 --> 00:59:46,960
Speaker 1: through the proper channels, like they're allowed to do that.

1105
00:59:47,800 --> 00:59:51,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, unfortunately for these workers. You know what he's ultimately

1106
00:59:51,480 --> 00:59:56,520
Speaker 2: describing as sort of a technicality, Like he's saying, you lied,

1107
00:59:56,560 --> 00:59:59,120
Speaker 2: and you did this illegally. Like there are laws in place,

1108
01:00:00,040 --> 01:00:04,040
Speaker 2: federal laws in place that apply to the executive and

1109
01:00:04,080 --> 01:00:06,800
Speaker 2: your your theory of the unitary executive where the president

1110
01:00:06,840 --> 01:00:09,520
Speaker 2: can just you know, do whatever he wants. It does

1111
01:00:09,560 --> 01:00:12,760
Speaker 2: not fly. And here are here is how you have

1112
01:00:12,880 --> 01:00:15,120
Speaker 2: to you know, reduce the number of employees that you

1113
01:00:15,200 --> 01:00:17,840
Speaker 2: have in say the Veterans Affairs Department.

1114
01:00:18,520 --> 01:00:18,720
Speaker 8: Uh.

1115
01:00:19,520 --> 01:00:21,720
Speaker 2: Here it's laid out very clearly. Follow these rules and

1116
01:00:21,720 --> 01:00:23,200
Speaker 2: you can do it. So that's what that's what he's

1117
01:00:23,240 --> 01:00:26,960
Speaker 2: telling government. Like what what what the government did is

1118
01:00:27,000 --> 01:00:31,120
Speaker 2: they had, oh PM, the Office of Personnel Management fire

1119
01:00:31,160 --> 01:00:36,240
Speaker 2: every probationary employee send them boilerplate letters saying you're fired

1120
01:00:36,240 --> 01:00:38,800
Speaker 2: for cause because you're doing a bad job. And his

1121
01:00:38,920 --> 01:00:43,000
Speaker 2: argument is a o PM, you know, does not have

1122
01:00:43,040 --> 01:00:46,080
Speaker 2: the ability to fire somebody at say the VA and B.

1123
01:00:46,280 --> 01:00:48,760
Speaker 2: You're lying because you didn't. You don't even you don't

1124
01:00:48,800 --> 01:00:51,120
Speaker 2: know if this person is doing well or not. So

1125
01:00:51,240 --> 01:00:54,240
Speaker 2: then the administration came back and said, well, it wasn't

1126
01:00:54,240 --> 01:00:57,400
Speaker 2: actually o PM that did the firing, it was the agencies.

1127
01:00:57,840 --> 01:01:02,440
Speaker 2: OPM was just offering this kind of vague suggestion. And

1128
01:01:02,440 --> 01:01:04,720
Speaker 2: they even put an affidavit in from the acting director

1129
01:01:05,160 --> 01:01:08,280
Speaker 2: of OPM saying that that was the truth, that he

1130
01:01:08,320 --> 01:01:11,280
Speaker 2: had nothing to do with these firings. So the judge said,

1131
01:01:11,320 --> 01:01:14,200
Speaker 2: all right, cool, bring this guy in for a deposition.

1132
01:01:14,800 --> 01:01:17,240
Speaker 2: I want to hear him cross examined. And then the

1133
01:01:17,320 --> 01:01:22,160
Speaker 2: administration withdrew his affidavid. He said, never mind. That's when

1134
01:01:22,160 --> 01:01:24,920
Speaker 2: he that's when he lost it on. He's like, I

1135
01:01:24,960 --> 01:01:28,080
Speaker 2: think you're lying. He's like, you're presenting an affidavid, and

1136
01:01:28,120 --> 01:01:29,600
Speaker 2: then when I ask you to back it up by

1137
01:01:29,920 --> 01:01:32,000
Speaker 2: bringing him in for a deposition at any time of

1138
01:01:32,040 --> 01:01:35,920
Speaker 2: its convenience, you pull it back. It's like and he

1139
01:01:36,080 --> 01:01:37,760
Speaker 2: used the word lying. He's like, I think you're lying

1140
01:01:37,760 --> 01:01:43,680
Speaker 2: to me. And the other side had affidavids from the

1141
01:01:43,720 --> 01:01:47,600
Speaker 2: agencies saying OPM ordered us to fire these people, and

1142
01:01:47,680 --> 01:01:51,680
Speaker 2: we disagree that they were poorly performing it. So it's

1143
01:01:51,720 --> 01:01:53,680
Speaker 2: to open and shut pace that they lied and didn't

1144
01:01:53,680 --> 01:01:56,880
Speaker 2: follow the procedure. Problem for the workers is they can

1145
01:01:56,960 --> 01:02:01,800
Speaker 2: just do it again and follow the action procedures, and

1146
01:02:01,840 --> 01:02:04,840
Speaker 2: they're going to release that process very soon, and I

1147
01:02:04,880 --> 01:02:07,600
Speaker 2: think it's going to be a bloodbath for federal workers.

1148
01:02:08,120 --> 01:02:10,400
Speaker 2: Maybe some of these will keep their jobs and they'll

1149
01:02:11,240 --> 01:02:12,960
Speaker 2: you know, go after more senior people or whatever, but

1150
01:02:13,000 --> 01:02:15,440
Speaker 2: a lot of people are still going to lose their jobs.

1151
01:02:16,840 --> 01:02:20,680
Speaker 8: Yeah, I think that's right. I think this is definitely temporary,

1152
01:02:21,000 --> 01:02:25,360
Speaker 8: and it's really unfortunate for the tens of thousands of

1153
01:02:25,360 --> 01:02:28,640
Speaker 8: people caught up in it. But it's an interesting, I guess,

1154
01:02:28,840 --> 01:02:33,000
Speaker 8: test of how DOGE was making some of these decisions,

1155
01:02:33,160 --> 01:02:36,320
Speaker 8: which you know, DOGE was originally conceived of as an

1156
01:02:36,360 --> 01:02:41,840
Speaker 8: outside advisory committee basically that would look at these things

1157
01:02:42,360 --> 01:02:47,480
Speaker 8: and then submit recommendations to the agencies, rather than making

1158
01:02:47,520 --> 01:02:51,760
Speaker 8: these decisions on its own and coercing the agencies to

1159
01:02:52,120 --> 01:02:56,280
Speaker 8: comply with the decisions that they've come to and when

1160
01:02:56,320 --> 01:03:01,240
Speaker 8: DOGE took over USDs, there was just like complete confusion

1161
01:03:01,480 --> 01:03:05,800
Speaker 8: about what its authority actually was. Probably that's a problem

1162
01:03:05,800 --> 01:03:08,440
Speaker 8: with Elon Musk coming in and being confused about what

1163
01:03:08,480 --> 01:03:13,080
Speaker 8: the authority actually was. Not confused, maybe like willfully disinterested

1164
01:03:13,280 --> 01:03:17,040
Speaker 8: in the actual mechanism of power. You know, we're going

1165
01:03:17,120 --> 01:03:20,280
Speaker 8: to do this anyway, goes the thinking. But the probationary

1166
01:03:20,520 --> 01:03:25,200
Speaker 8: status has come to be a fascinating question for people

1167
01:03:25,200 --> 01:03:27,600
Speaker 8: involved in DOGE because a lot of the people they've

1168
01:03:27,640 --> 01:03:31,280
Speaker 8: since learned who were on probationary status were the people

1169
01:03:31,280 --> 01:03:34,320
Speaker 8: that they would want to keep, like as a category,

1170
01:03:34,760 --> 01:03:37,600
Speaker 8: because it was people who newly wanted to be a

1171
01:03:37,600 --> 01:03:40,000
Speaker 8: part of the government. So it went from being a

1172
01:03:40,040 --> 01:03:45,160
Speaker 8: really easy slab of fat to cut to actually, well,

1173
01:03:45,200 --> 01:03:48,640
Speaker 8: if you think some of these agencies should continue existing,

1174
01:03:49,120 --> 01:03:52,000
Speaker 8: albeit in a much smaller form. If you use the

1175
01:03:52,080 --> 01:03:56,320
Speaker 8: quote scalpel instead of what did Trump say, the acts hatch, Yeah,

1176
01:03:56,320 --> 01:03:59,080
Speaker 8: the hatchet, then in fact the people that sort of

1177
01:03:59,120 --> 01:04:02,160
Speaker 8: got booted for would probably be the people that you

1178
01:04:02,200 --> 01:04:05,040
Speaker 8: would scalpel in. I think that's going to happen at Defense.

1179
01:04:05,120 --> 01:04:07,440
Speaker 8: I think a lot of these probationary folks at Defense

1180
01:04:07,480 --> 01:04:10,040
Speaker 8: are probably going to end up being okay. But at

1181
01:04:10,040 --> 01:04:13,640
Speaker 8: the other places that I mean, they're trying to get

1182
01:04:13,680 --> 01:04:15,960
Speaker 8: rid of so many people that I agree with Ryan,

1183
01:04:16,640 --> 01:04:18,360
Speaker 8: you know, if you're at AG or something like that,

1184
01:04:18,400 --> 01:04:20,800
Speaker 8: you'll probably still get acxed, maybe even next week.

1185
01:04:21,800 --> 01:04:24,040
Speaker 1: I didn't even think about that, Emily, that like, some

1186
01:04:24,080 --> 01:04:26,680
Speaker 1: of the people who just just joined were like, Trump won,

1187
01:04:27,360 --> 01:04:30,200
Speaker 1: doges coming, let's go when I join the government and

1188
01:04:30,240 --> 01:04:33,680
Speaker 1: do my public service. And yeah, if you're a person who, like,

1189
01:04:33,800 --> 01:04:36,360
Speaker 1: I mean, you know, probationary lasts for a you know,

1190
01:04:36,480 --> 01:04:38,440
Speaker 1: significant period of time, and as Ryan's point out, and

1191
01:04:38,560 --> 01:04:40,720
Speaker 1: it includes some people who just got promoted been working

1192
01:04:40,760 --> 01:04:43,120
Speaker 1: in the government a long time, but or who have

1193
01:04:43,160 --> 01:04:46,920
Speaker 1: just switched agencies or moved or whatever. But yeah, it

1194
01:04:46,960 --> 01:04:49,640
Speaker 1: didn't occur to me that if you're someone who saw

1195
01:04:49,680 --> 01:04:52,200
Speaker 1: Donald Trump's election and then was like, now's the time

1196
01:04:52,200 --> 01:04:54,880
Speaker 1: when I'm going to work in government service, you probably

1197
01:04:54,920 --> 01:04:57,400
Speaker 1: are someone who is poor aligned with this administration. Then

1198
01:04:57,400 --> 01:05:00,480
Speaker 1: the people who are not on probationary status. To mention,

1199
01:05:00,640 --> 01:05:04,160
Speaker 1: you know, veterans and veterans spouses were more likely to

1200
01:05:04,160 --> 01:05:06,680
Speaker 1: be on probationary status as well.

1201
01:05:07,080 --> 01:05:10,360
Speaker 8: You're just an ambitious young person like that's like not

1202
01:05:10,520 --> 01:05:13,840
Speaker 8: that hasn't been shaped and molded by the quote administrative

1203
01:05:13,880 --> 01:05:15,520
Speaker 8: state over the course of decades, a lot of the

1204
01:05:15,560 --> 01:05:16,439
Speaker 8: non probationaries.

1205
01:05:16,880 --> 01:05:19,920
Speaker 1: Yeah. True, there was one more federal judge ordered to

1206
01:05:19,960 --> 01:05:24,440
Speaker 1: stop to mass firings in federal agencies except Pentagon, OPM,

1207
01:05:24,480 --> 01:05:27,720
Speaker 1: and NARA, saying the so called reductions enforce broke the law.

1208
01:05:27,760 --> 01:05:33,440
Speaker 1: Employees purportedly terminated our return to government employee. So a

1209
01:05:33,480 --> 01:05:37,080
Speaker 1: similar decision here, I think this one was. This is

1210
01:05:37,120 --> 01:05:39,280
Speaker 1: a separate, even more sweeping order than the one issued

1211
01:05:39,320 --> 01:05:42,920
Speaker 1: by judge. Also, he says earlier today for terminated probationary employees,

1212
01:05:42,960 --> 01:05:45,560
Speaker 1: but it is only a two week reprieve until further

1213
01:05:45,720 --> 01:05:49,160
Speaker 1: litigation takes place. And you know this is the right

1214
01:05:49,200 --> 01:05:51,400
Speaker 1: up here, federal judges order the reinstatement of thousands of

1215
01:05:51,440 --> 01:05:53,800
Speaker 1: federal workers across the huge swap of the federal government.

1216
01:05:53,840 --> 01:05:56,160
Speaker 1: The second judge to order sweeping relief today and reject

1217
01:05:56,440 --> 01:05:59,520
Speaker 1: the mass firings as illegal. So you know, you have

1218
01:06:00,280 --> 01:06:03,040
Speaker 1: a lot of times when these cases are going to court,

1219
01:06:03,200 --> 01:06:07,720
Speaker 1: the challengers are winning, but number one, oftentimes they're a

1220
01:06:07,760 --> 01:06:12,640
Speaker 1: temporary reprieve and number two. Oftentimes, you know, they've moved

1221
01:06:12,880 --> 01:06:16,760
Speaker 1: thirty steps ahead while you were fighting on this ground,

1222
01:06:17,280 --> 01:06:19,720
Speaker 1: and so you know, it just feels like trying to

1223
01:06:19,760 --> 01:06:22,680
Speaker 1: mitigate the damage. I talked to the co president of

1224
01:06:22,720 --> 01:06:25,320
Speaker 1: Public Citizen yesterday, is involved in a bunch of these lawsuits,

1225
01:06:25,360 --> 01:06:27,240
Speaker 1: and that was the way he described it. He's like, Yeah,

1226
01:06:27,320 --> 01:06:29,840
Speaker 1: the court system is really not set up to handle

1227
01:06:30,200 --> 01:06:33,120
Speaker 1: this sort of like full on flood the zone assault,

1228
01:06:33,800 --> 01:06:37,600
Speaker 1: and so you are definitionally just trying to, like you know,

1229
01:06:37,640 --> 01:06:40,560
Speaker 1: from his perspective in mind, contain the damage and try

1230
01:06:40,600 --> 01:06:44,440
Speaker 1: to have something left to rebuild from once these people

1231
01:06:44,520 --> 01:06:47,200
Speaker 1: are ultimately done. So you know, that's kind of the

1232
01:06:47,440 --> 01:06:50,240
Speaker 1: status of where things are with regards to the courts.

1233
01:06:50,240 --> 01:06:52,080
Speaker 1: There was one other piece that I don't know if

1234
01:06:52,080 --> 01:06:53,840
Speaker 1: you guys want to weigh in on, but I saw

1235
01:06:53,960 --> 01:06:57,920
Speaker 1: Trump is pushing for his birthright ending of birthright citizenship

1236
01:06:58,000 --> 01:07:00,160
Speaker 1: to go to Scotus and have them way in on

1237
01:07:00,240 --> 01:07:02,000
Speaker 1: at least part of that. So that was the other

1238
01:07:02,040 --> 01:07:04,520
Speaker 1: big legal decision yesterday.

1239
01:07:04,240 --> 01:07:07,240
Speaker 8: And that's one that's been I think engineered in the

1240
01:07:07,240 --> 01:07:10,120
Speaker 8: conservative movement, and there's significant disagreement about this in the

1241
01:07:10,120 --> 01:07:14,240
Speaker 8: conservative movement, but in sort of like Stephen Miller circles.

1242
01:07:14,440 --> 01:07:20,600
Speaker 8: That's something that was intentionally germinated and designed to be

1243
01:07:20,720 --> 01:07:23,320
Speaker 8: tested in the Supreme Court. The way that they ended

1244
01:07:23,400 --> 01:07:26,240
Speaker 8: up doing it, you know, it's sort of the reverse

1245
01:07:26,280 --> 01:07:29,720
Speaker 8: of the probationary employee thing, like this is a very

1246
01:07:29,200 --> 01:07:33,440
Speaker 8: they they set this up very intentionally to be tested

1247
01:07:33,560 --> 01:07:36,040
Speaker 8: in the courts because they think they can with the

1248
01:07:36,080 --> 01:07:39,560
Speaker 8: Supreme Court, they think they can prevail and significantly change

1249
01:07:39,680 --> 01:07:43,560
Speaker 8: the way we approach birthright citizenship through an EO.

1250
01:07:44,600 --> 01:07:47,600
Speaker 1: Which would overturn a lot of precedent. And also just

1251
01:07:47,720 --> 01:07:52,480
Speaker 1: like the very like you know, plane meaning English language

1252
01:07:52,520 --> 01:07:55,680
Speaker 1: meaning of the way that the words are written in

1253
01:07:55,720 --> 01:07:58,760
Speaker 1: the Constitution. You know, for a lot of originalists, you

1254
01:07:58,800 --> 01:08:00,960
Speaker 1: would think that would be a problem, but I'm not sure.

1255
01:08:01,920 --> 01:08:04,680
Speaker 2: So the idea here would be if an American citizen

1256
01:08:05,480 --> 01:08:14,840
Speaker 2: participated in a campus protest, that if they had naturalized citizenship,

1257
01:08:16,320 --> 01:08:18,320
Speaker 2: or you know, if their parents were not born in

1258
01:08:18,320 --> 01:08:22,120
Speaker 2: the United States but they were mm hmm, So where

1259
01:08:22,120 --> 01:08:24,720
Speaker 2: would you deport them to. So let's say somebody is

1260
01:08:24,760 --> 01:08:27,759
Speaker 2: born here in the United States, one of their parents

1261
01:08:27,800 --> 01:08:32,400
Speaker 2: is Mexican, one of their parents is Canadian. They protest

1262
01:08:32,439 --> 01:08:36,000
Speaker 2: against Israel, which you can't protest against Israel United States.

1263
01:08:38,320 --> 01:08:42,919
Speaker 2: They they get detained, flow into Louisiana, have their citizenships stripped.

1264
01:08:44,080 --> 01:08:46,200
Speaker 2: Now they're back down to a green cars. They have

1265
01:08:46,280 --> 01:08:51,479
Speaker 2: the green cards stripped. Then where do you send them? Canada, Mexico?

1266
01:08:51,640 --> 01:08:53,479
Speaker 8: Like what what's the international waters?

1267
01:08:54,439 --> 01:08:58,680
Speaker 2: International water? Peter Thiel's like utopian said them to one

1268
01:08:58,720 --> 01:09:02,960
Speaker 2: of these libertarian cryptos owns, like what is what's the

1269
01:09:03,080 --> 01:09:07,040
Speaker 2: endgame here for an American citizen who protests against Israel

1270
01:09:07,360 --> 01:09:11,160
Speaker 2: in a way that you know, Donald Trump finds offensive?

1271
01:09:11,880 --> 01:09:14,040
Speaker 2: Mm hmm, Like what do they do with him?

1272
01:09:15,240 --> 01:09:18,320
Speaker 8: Well, I think that question applies also to people I

1273
01:09:18,320 --> 01:09:21,240
Speaker 8: mean whether or not they're protesting who are the kind

1274
01:09:21,240 --> 01:09:23,639
Speaker 8: of quote unquote anchor baby test case.

1275
01:09:24,000 --> 01:09:27,040
Speaker 2: But at least some of those. But if they're not anchor,

1276
01:09:27,479 --> 01:09:29,320
Speaker 2: so quote unquote anchor baby means they were born here

1277
01:09:29,360 --> 01:09:33,080
Speaker 2: in the United States. Somebody like mach Mukhalil. He was

1278
01:09:33,120 --> 01:09:35,160
Speaker 2: born in a refugee camp in Syria and he has

1279
01:09:35,200 --> 01:09:39,320
Speaker 2: Algerian citizenship. So I can imagine, Okay, we're going to

1280
01:09:39,400 --> 01:09:42,920
Speaker 2: deport him to Algeria because that's because he has citizenship there. Like,

1281
01:09:42,960 --> 01:09:44,800
Speaker 2: if that's what they're gonna do, but if you're born

1282
01:09:44,840 --> 01:09:47,920
Speaker 2: in the United States, you're in a United States citizens

1283
01:09:47,920 --> 01:09:55,160
Speaker 2: you have no citizenship anywhere else. Like who that has has?

1284
01:09:55,240 --> 01:09:57,000
Speaker 2: The Stephen Miller crowd thought about this.

1285
01:09:57,080 --> 01:10:01,160
Speaker 8: Like, well, it also requires cooperation of a countries, right,

1286
01:10:01,200 --> 01:10:04,439
Speaker 8: and I'm curious how other other countries do don't have

1287
01:10:04,520 --> 01:10:05,600
Speaker 8: birthright citizens.

1288
01:10:05,360 --> 01:10:08,560
Speaker 2: Rights might be like, no, we're not, We're not participating

1289
01:10:08,560 --> 01:10:10,200
Speaker 2: in this thing.

1290
01:10:11,200 --> 01:10:14,240
Speaker 8: Yeah, I mean, I practical question that I'd.

1291
01:10:14,320 --> 01:10:15,120
Speaker 2: Zero answer to.

1292
01:10:16,600 --> 01:10:19,800
Speaker 1: Answer Ryan is they don't really care, just not here.

1293
01:10:19,880 --> 01:10:21,240
Speaker 2: But they're going to have to figure out is they're

1294
01:10:21,240 --> 01:10:23,479
Speaker 2: just going to keep them in definitely in Guantanamo or they.

1295
01:10:23,360 --> 01:10:27,080
Speaker 1: Can just send them to get Mo. Yeah as a plan, right, problem,

1296
01:10:27,080 --> 01:10:28,160
Speaker 1: there's like fifty beds there.

1297
01:10:28,200 --> 01:10:34,599
Speaker 2: Good luck. Yeah, well, they could do hundreds, maybe even thousands.

1298
01:10:34,640 --> 01:10:36,840
Speaker 2: I think George H. W. Bush had thousands there at

1299
01:10:36,880 --> 01:10:37,280
Speaker 2: one point.

1300
01:10:38,439 --> 01:10:42,240
Speaker 1: The plan is thirty thousand is their goal. Whether they

1301
01:10:42,240 --> 01:10:44,960
Speaker 1: can accomplish that or not is another question. Apparently the

1302
01:10:45,400 --> 01:10:47,720
Speaker 1: few hundred that they had originally sent to Gitmo, they've

1303
01:10:47,760 --> 01:10:52,040
Speaker 1: now is sent elsewhere, either deported them or brought them

1304
01:10:52,080 --> 01:10:55,280
Speaker 1: back actually to the US to DHS facilities here. So

1305
01:10:55,840 --> 01:11:00,439
Speaker 1: in any case, yeah, lots of work out there.

1306
01:11:00,720 --> 01:11:04,000
Speaker 8: They definitely don't see that as a successful experiment.

1307
01:11:05,840 --> 01:11:07,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, well, I think it got them the headlines that

1308
01:11:07,960 --> 01:11:10,920
Speaker 1: they want, you know well, and actually got them a

1309
01:11:10,960 --> 01:11:12,600
Speaker 1: freak out that they want. And I think that was

1310
01:11:12,600 --> 01:11:14,559
Speaker 1: probably most of the goal there, to be honest with you.

1311
01:11:14,760 --> 01:11:16,360
Speaker 8: Well, yeah, and I think actually I shouldn't even be

1312
01:11:16,360 --> 01:11:19,160
Speaker 8: so glib about it, because I do think that's part

1313
01:11:19,200 --> 01:11:22,160
Speaker 8: of I actually think that did have a deterrent effect

1314
01:11:22,240 --> 01:11:24,320
Speaker 8: based on some of the reporting I've seen from like

1315
01:11:24,479 --> 01:11:27,439
Speaker 8: Mexico and Central America where reporters are just talking to

1316
01:11:27,600 --> 01:11:29,720
Speaker 8: migrants about why they're turning around, and there has been

1317
01:11:29,800 --> 01:11:33,160
Speaker 8: significant number of people like literally getting through the daring

1318
01:11:33,240 --> 01:11:38,120
Speaker 8: gap and turning turning back around because the risk calculation

1319
01:11:38,360 --> 01:11:41,960
Speaker 8: has changed significantly. So yeah, I probably shouldn't have been

1320
01:11:41,960 --> 01:11:44,759
Speaker 8: flipping about that. I think it did to some extent

1321
01:11:45,240 --> 01:11:48,880
Speaker 8: accomplish what they wanted to, which was a like low

1322
01:11:48,880 --> 01:11:52,640
Speaker 8: effort way to deter people from coming in, obviously at

1323
01:11:52,640 --> 01:11:57,000
Speaker 8: the cost of the legal questions for them were building,

1324
01:11:57,200 --> 01:12:00,080
Speaker 8: But it probably in the interim had some deturn.

1325
01:12:01,080 --> 01:12:02,679
Speaker 2: Yeah, border crossings is plummeted.

1326
01:12:03,640 --> 01:12:06,479
Speaker 1: Yeah, no doubt about that, No doubt about that. All right, guys,

1327
01:12:06,520 --> 01:12:09,160
Speaker 1: anything else before we let you guys go and get

1328
01:12:09,160 --> 01:12:09,800
Speaker 1: on with your day.

1329
01:12:10,280 --> 01:12:12,360
Speaker 8: No, I just wanted to say, your hair looks amazing today,

1330
01:12:12,439 --> 01:12:13,240
Speaker 8: exceptionally good.

1331
01:12:13,560 --> 01:12:15,599
Speaker 1: Thank you. You know, I literally did nothing to it

1332
01:12:15,640 --> 01:12:18,640
Speaker 1: this morning. I actually just like woke up and it

1333
01:12:18,800 --> 01:12:20,240
Speaker 1: was just like this. That was kind of a miracle.

1334
01:12:20,240 --> 01:12:21,760
Speaker 1: I don't know what happened, woke up like this. I

1335
01:12:23,600 --> 01:12:25,559
Speaker 1: my hair did anyway, the rest of me not so much.

1336
01:12:25,840 --> 01:12:27,559
Speaker 8: Ryan put more effort into his hair than Crystal.

1337
01:12:27,800 --> 01:12:30,280
Speaker 1: Ryan looks great. I have to say I feel a

1338
01:12:30,320 --> 01:12:33,519
Speaker 1: little chlobby here. I got my like Elizabeth, there are

1339
01:12:33,600 --> 01:12:37,640
Speaker 1: no situation going here. I was like, you know, and

1340
01:12:37,720 --> 01:12:41,280
Speaker 1: Ryan's sick, yeah, and he's putting in all this all

1341
01:12:41,280 --> 01:12:44,240
Speaker 1: this appearance. Evert Ryan, go rust, get better, take care

1342
01:12:44,240 --> 01:12:45,320
Speaker 1: of your kiddos and link.

1343
01:12:46,520 --> 01:12:48,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, people should go look this up. But speaking of

1344
01:12:48,880 --> 01:12:53,439
Speaker 2: our speaking of Makmu Khalil, the Columbia University sent out

1345
01:12:53,439 --> 01:12:55,920
Speaker 2: an email to a lot of people, a lot of

1346
01:12:55,920 --> 01:12:59,920
Speaker 2: its members just now ish saying that there were da

1347
01:13:00,120 --> 01:13:04,479
Speaker 2: chess thugs I don't know what the term they used

1348
01:13:04,520 --> 01:13:10,839
Speaker 2: for them, was in residences with warrants last night looking

1349
01:13:10,880 --> 01:13:15,800
Speaker 2: for more people to grab and deport. It said they

1350
01:13:15,800 --> 01:13:19,160
Speaker 2: failed to find anybody, but they let the community know

1351
01:13:19,240 --> 01:13:24,120
Speaker 2: that there were warrants served for more arrests and deportations,

1352
01:13:24,800 --> 01:13:26,880
Speaker 2: so they're ramping this up.

1353
01:13:27,479 --> 01:13:32,040
Speaker 1: There's also an allegation from a student leader at Columbia

1354
01:13:32,120 --> 01:13:36,360
Speaker 1: that the Columbia Board of Trustees was involved in singing

1355
01:13:36,520 --> 01:13:40,000
Speaker 1: DHS on Machmud Khalil specifically. So, like I said, it's

1356
01:13:40,000 --> 01:13:42,680
Speaker 1: an allegation. It's not fully reported on or confirmed. But

1357
01:13:43,400 --> 01:13:45,559
Speaker 1: you know, if you're asking yourself, why did they pick

1358
01:13:45,600 --> 01:13:46,040
Speaker 1: this one to.

1359
01:13:46,360 --> 01:13:48,919
Speaker 2: Some of the trustees, who would Yeah, because the trustees

1360
01:13:48,920 --> 01:13:51,599
Speaker 2: are there's some of them on there who would probably

1361
01:13:51,720 --> 01:13:52,840
Speaker 2: have motivation to do that.

1362
01:13:52,840 --> 01:13:55,280
Speaker 1: It would be down for that. Yeah, I mean, especially

1363
01:13:55,320 --> 01:13:57,880
Speaker 1: given you know, I mean, I know you've been searching around.

1364
01:13:58,560 --> 01:14:01,720
Speaker 1: Murtaza has been searching around and like looking, Okay, well

1365
01:14:01,760 --> 01:14:05,719
Speaker 1: what did he actually say? And I can promise you

1366
01:14:05,760 --> 01:14:07,840
Speaker 1: like Ryan and I have both said more radical things

1367
01:14:07,840 --> 01:14:10,439
Speaker 1: on this program than and he has been like hell

1368
01:14:10,560 --> 01:14:13,679
Speaker 1: there that they've been able to find that he said,

1369
01:14:13,720 --> 01:14:16,080
Speaker 1: don't I know it? Yeah?

1370
01:14:16,160 --> 01:14:18,760
Speaker 8: So well, so I just want to say this is

1371
01:14:18,800 --> 01:14:20,880
Speaker 8: actually goes to a theory that I have, which is

1372
01:14:21,200 --> 01:14:25,559
Speaker 8: the administration was led down a Rosier path, or a

1373
01:14:25,600 --> 01:14:27,320
Speaker 8: path that was less rosy than they thought it was,

1374
01:14:27,479 --> 01:14:33,040
Speaker 8: by people at Columbia who Colombia has had this incredible

1375
01:14:33,080 --> 01:14:38,680
Speaker 8: mobilization since these original protests and the encampment of alumni

1376
01:14:39,160 --> 01:14:43,320
Speaker 8: who are like terrified of what they see as rising

1377
01:14:43,320 --> 01:14:47,080
Speaker 8: anti Semitism at Columbia and furious with Columbia for the

1378
01:14:47,080 --> 01:14:51,120
Speaker 8: way that it's handled the encampments and the protests and everything.

1379
01:14:51,200 --> 01:14:55,000
Speaker 8: And I think that the administration was listening to people

1380
01:14:55,280 --> 01:14:59,360
Speaker 8: who have been intensely emotionally invested in this for like

1381
01:14:59,479 --> 01:15:02,760
Speaker 8: over a year, who had cases that they thought were

1382
01:15:02,920 --> 01:15:06,000
Speaker 8: so strong, like Khalil is a really good one. The

1383
01:15:06,000 --> 01:15:09,880
Speaker 8: administration clearly did not realize that he wasn't on some

1384
01:15:09,880 --> 01:15:12,519
Speaker 8: student visa, and it seems like they were told that

1385
01:15:12,560 --> 01:15:16,240
Speaker 8: he was and they acted really quickly based on This

1386
01:15:16,320 --> 01:15:17,920
Speaker 8: is just a theory. I don't have any reporting him

1387
01:15:17,960 --> 01:15:20,120
Speaker 8: back this up, but just putting the pieces together, I

1388
01:15:20,160 --> 01:15:24,439
Speaker 8: think they were really significantly misled by people who thought

1389
01:15:24,479 --> 01:15:28,960
Speaker 8: that they had clear cut legal slam dunk cases told

1390
01:15:28,960 --> 01:15:32,040
Speaker 8: the administration that, and the administration didn't necessarily do the

1391
01:15:32,120 --> 01:15:34,840
Speaker 8: due diligence that it should have because of the intensity

1392
01:15:35,160 --> 01:15:38,880
Speaker 8: of the cases that have been presented to them by

1393
01:15:38,960 --> 01:15:41,679
Speaker 8: people who have been working on this at Columbia.

1394
01:15:42,600 --> 01:15:46,439
Speaker 2: That theory makes sense because if DHS was the one

1395
01:15:46,439 --> 01:15:51,240
Speaker 2: who told the administration, let's go get Makmoud Khalil, DHS

1396
01:15:51,280 --> 01:15:54,679
Speaker 2: would check its system like, FYI, he's a permanent, yes,

1397
01:15:54,840 --> 01:15:58,000
Speaker 2: legal resident, and we can use this obscure law. Believe

1398
01:15:58,040 --> 01:16:00,639
Speaker 2: we can get him out. They would know because they

1399
01:16:00,680 --> 01:16:05,120
Speaker 2: have the data. If the rumor mill of the angry

1400
01:16:05,120 --> 01:16:09,320
Speaker 2: Columbia Trustees or whoever, well they had been tweeting about

1401
01:16:09,320 --> 01:16:11,240
Speaker 2: Paul Trump were like, this guy's a student, this guy's

1402
01:16:11,240 --> 01:16:13,880
Speaker 2: on a student visa. I saw it on Twitter, and

1403
01:16:13,920 --> 01:16:16,840
Speaker 2: it's right, according to Elon Musk, you are better off

1404
01:16:16,920 --> 01:16:20,160
Speaker 2: if you get your news from X. Then let's say,

1405
01:16:20,160 --> 01:16:23,559
Speaker 2: if you'r DHS, you search the actual immigration records. And

1406
01:16:23,600 --> 01:16:28,599
Speaker 2: so yeah, they went in on tweets and then found

1407
01:16:28,600 --> 01:16:30,840
Speaker 2: out that he that they were wrong. And now they

1408
01:16:30,920 --> 01:16:33,839
Speaker 2: might set this like horrific precedent by accident.

1409
01:16:34,840 --> 01:16:38,000
Speaker 1: Well, and but on the other hand, now that they

1410
01:16:38,000 --> 01:16:40,800
Speaker 1: are set to this set to you know, lay down

1411
01:16:40,800 --> 01:16:43,640
Speaker 1: this horrific precedent, they don't seem too worried about that,

1412
01:16:44,080 --> 01:16:46,599
Speaker 1: you know, I mean, they're leaning into it. Yeah, Saga

1413
01:16:46,640 --> 01:16:49,800
Speaker 1: asked Caroline Lovett at the podium about it. She was

1414
01:16:49,840 --> 01:16:53,240
Speaker 1: perfectly happy to answer, like, I think maybe they feel like, oh,

1415
01:16:53,280 --> 01:16:54,760
Speaker 1: it works out because we get to lay out the

1416
01:16:54,760 --> 01:16:57,519
Speaker 1: most maximal's case and then all these student visa ones

1417
01:16:58,439 --> 01:17:01,120
Speaker 1: like those are easy. That's nothing after we've been able

1418
01:17:01,200 --> 01:17:03,960
Speaker 1: to strip the you know, the the green card status

1419
01:17:04,000 --> 01:17:06,639
Speaker 1: and to port someone who was a legal permanent resident.

1420
01:17:07,080 --> 01:17:10,599
Speaker 1: And you know, I mean even the fact that, like,

1421
01:17:10,880 --> 01:17:13,080
Speaker 1: you guys did a great work looking at up this

1422
01:17:13,439 --> 01:17:16,479
Speaker 1: Instagram post that all these right wingers were hanging their

1423
01:17:16,479 --> 01:17:19,160
Speaker 1: hat on of him saying you wanted to destroy Western imperialism.

1424
01:17:19,200 --> 01:17:21,960
Speaker 1: You're like the number one that wasn't even his Instagram

1425
01:17:22,400 --> 01:17:25,320
Speaker 1: it's some group. He may not have even seen this

1426
01:17:25,439 --> 01:17:29,160
Speaker 1: Instagram post. And this is what you're like, this is

1427
01:17:29,200 --> 01:17:32,200
Speaker 1: what you're making your case with. And it's really kind

1428
01:17:32,240 --> 01:17:35,760
Speaker 1: of the only specific language example I've seen anyone use

1429
01:17:35,960 --> 01:17:38,960
Speaker 1: with regard to him, and it's this Instagram post that

1430
01:17:39,040 --> 01:17:41,479
Speaker 1: he didn't even directly have anything to do with.

1431
01:17:41,760 --> 01:17:44,120
Speaker 2: It's actually kind of annoying because I think there's zero

1432
01:17:44,240 --> 01:17:45,200
Speaker 2: to do with any of the posts.

1433
01:17:45,360 --> 01:17:47,600
Speaker 8: Yeah, yeah, it's kind of annoying because I think there

1434
01:17:47,600 --> 01:17:49,920
Speaker 8: are genuinely you guys disagree with me on this, since

1435
01:17:50,120 --> 01:17:52,120
Speaker 8: you Sager and I probably do agree on this. I

1436
01:17:52,120 --> 01:17:55,080
Speaker 8: think there actually are cases of people who are here

1437
01:17:55,120 --> 01:17:58,640
Speaker 8: on student visas who like clearly viscerally hate America and

1438
01:17:58,800 --> 01:18:02,320
Speaker 8: probably violated some laws over the course of civil disobedience.

1439
01:18:02,479 --> 01:18:05,599
Speaker 8: And there are cases that would have made this much

1440
01:18:05,960 --> 01:18:10,000
Speaker 8: much stronger than the Khalil case. And it's like this

1441
01:18:10,080 --> 01:18:12,919
Speaker 8: is I think it's indefensible. I think he's just completely stupid.

1442
01:18:13,000 --> 01:18:16,440
Speaker 8: So it's that's I find that very irritating.

1443
01:18:18,000 --> 01:18:21,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, if you're you commit a crime, like they have

1444
01:18:21,280 --> 01:18:22,040
Speaker 2: their power to do that.

1445
01:18:22,240 --> 01:18:25,400
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I mean I would be, you know, arguing

1446
01:18:25,439 --> 01:18:27,639
Speaker 1: against it morally, but I wouldn't be able to argue

1447
01:18:27,640 --> 01:18:30,400
Speaker 1: against it legally. And I don't think you would find

1448
01:18:30,400 --> 01:18:33,280
Speaker 1: anyone on the right really who objected to that. Very

1449
01:18:33,280 --> 01:18:35,479
Speaker 1: few voices would really object to that. And now you

1450
01:18:35,520 --> 01:18:37,800
Speaker 1: have you know, summary wings. I don't want to overstate it,

1451
01:18:37,840 --> 01:18:40,320
Speaker 1: but there is some schism on the right over this,

1452
01:18:40,800 --> 01:18:43,360
Speaker 1: over this action by the administration, and it's just so

1453
01:18:43,479 --> 01:18:47,080
Speaker 1: clearly is a violation of First Amendment rights because the

1454
01:18:47,120 --> 01:18:49,639
Speaker 1: only thing he's he's not charged with a crime. They've

1455
01:18:49,640 --> 01:18:52,840
Speaker 1: made it clear that they're not deporting him or trying

1456
01:18:52,840 --> 01:18:56,600
Speaker 1: to deport him based on allegations of criminal behavior. Just

1457
01:18:56,720 --> 01:19:01,280
Speaker 1: Marco Rubio's assessment that his speech is political speech, is

1458
01:19:01,320 --> 01:19:04,439
Speaker 1: you know, this devastating blow to the US foreign policy

1459
01:19:04,479 --> 01:19:07,280
Speaker 1: priorities social security. Yeah, exactly.

1460
01:19:07,640 --> 01:19:11,760
Speaker 2: So one last anecdote is, so in two thousand and two,

1461
01:19:11,800 --> 01:19:14,440
Speaker 2: when I was doing a bunch of anti Iraq war organizing,

1462
01:19:14,520 --> 01:19:16,000
Speaker 2: I was at the University of Maryland and there were

1463
01:19:16,040 --> 01:19:19,559
Speaker 2: a bunch of Chinese students on student visas and they

1464
01:19:19,600 --> 01:19:21,840
Speaker 2: wanted to help, but they were like, if we get

1465
01:19:21,840 --> 01:19:25,280
Speaker 2: in any trouble, like, we will be out of here tomorrow.

1466
01:19:25,800 --> 01:19:29,200
Speaker 2: So we would meet at four am to go put

1467
01:19:29,240 --> 01:19:32,360
Speaker 2: the wax, you know, you're like, dip your posters in

1468
01:19:32,400 --> 01:19:34,479
Speaker 2: wax and then put them up on the put them

1469
01:19:34,520 --> 01:19:37,040
Speaker 2: up on the flyers, and to announce the rallies and stuff.

1470
01:19:37,680 --> 01:19:41,160
Speaker 2: So so students have always understood that, and particularly ones

1471
01:19:41,160 --> 01:19:43,120
Speaker 2: that grew up in China would have a much more

1472
01:19:43,320 --> 01:19:47,479
Speaker 2: visceral understanding of what a police state looks like. So yeah,

1473
01:19:47,920 --> 01:19:51,080
Speaker 2: there's it's different than for a Greenheart green card holder.

1474
01:19:52,280 --> 01:19:54,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, well could have been assumed to be different for

1475
01:19:54,840 --> 01:19:58,439
Speaker 1: a Green card holder, but apparently not which the green

1476
01:19:58,479 --> 01:20:01,599
Speaker 1: card holder. Yeah, now in court. All right, guys, thank

1477
01:20:01,640 --> 01:20:04,840
Speaker 1: you so much as always, and everybody out there, have

1478
01:20:04,880 --> 01:20:08,080
Speaker 1: a wonderful weekend. If anything crazy happens today, like for example,

1479
01:20:08,160 --> 01:20:11,559
Speaker 1: if Democrats fail to buckle as Ryme put it earlier

1480
01:20:11,920 --> 01:20:14,240
Speaker 1: and Shaka ISLAMI we'll do an update later in the day,

1481
01:20:14,280 --> 01:20:17,000
Speaker 1: but otherwise soccer and I will see you guys on Monday.

1482
01:20:17,160 --> 01:20:20,080
Speaker 1: Have a great day.