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Speaker 1: Hey, guys, ready or not, twenty twenty four is here,

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Speaker 1: and we here at breaking points, are already thinking of

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Speaker 1: ways we can up our game for this critical election.

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Speaker 2: We rely on our premium subs to expand coverage, upgrade

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Speaker 2: the studio ad staff give you, guys, the best independent.

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Speaker 3: Coverage that is possible.

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Speaker 2: If you like what we're all about, it just means

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Speaker 2: the absolute world to have your support. But enough with that,

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Speaker 2: let's get to the show. Good morning, everybody, Happy Monday.

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Speaker 2: We have an amazing show for everybody today. What do

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Speaker 2: we have, Krystal.

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Speaker 1: Indeed, we do a lot of interesting stories to talk

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Speaker 1: about this morning, So a lot of notable old man

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Speaker 1: moments from Joe Biden at the G seven.

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Speaker 4: And various other places.

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Speaker 1: Maybe even more remarkable than that is the MSNBC Cope

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Speaker 1: and spin, so we will show you all of that.

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Speaker 1: We also have some really fascinating new polls about how

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Speaker 1: the coalitions are shifting between Trump and Biden. So older voters,

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Speaker 1: for the first time in modern history, may actually vote

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Speaker 1: for the Democratic candidate Joe Biden. Meanwhile, Trump is cleaning

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Speaker 1: up up among infrequent voters. That is also a huge

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Speaker 1: historical shift. So a lot that's really fascinating to dig

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Speaker 1: into there. In terms of those numbers, we also host

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Speaker 1: some new interesting numbers out of France. So you'll recall

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Speaker 1: the sort of centrist leader of France, Emmanuel Macron, called

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Speaker 1: for snap elections.

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Speaker 4: He appears to.

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Speaker 1: Have sealed his political doom by making that decision, So

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Speaker 1: we'll break down those numbers for you what it could

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Speaker 1: mean in the context of US politics as well. Israel

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Speaker 1: is threatening a huge escalation in their war against Lebanon

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Speaker 1: and Hesblos, specifically a US not doing a lot to

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Speaker 1: forestall that possibility, so very dire consequences potentially there. We

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Speaker 1: also have the US military kind of freaking out about

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Speaker 1: how significant the Houthy threat has been, and we're going

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Speaker 1: to take a look at what we know about how

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Speaker 1: much it has cost us to effectively go to war

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Speaker 1: with the Houthy's. We also are excited to be joined

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Speaker 1: by Brianna Joy Gray. As you guys know, she was

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Speaker 1: recently fired from the Hill for her commentary viz. Of

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Speaker 1: the Israel and Palestine, so we want to hear directly

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Speaker 1: from her about that and about censorship in general.

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Speaker 4: So a lotto gives you today.

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Speaker 3: Yes, we're excited for that.

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Speaker 2: Before we get to that, don't forget we've got our

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Speaker 2: premium subscription. You can go ahead and sign up at

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Speaker 2: breakingpoints dot com. There's some awesome interviews, exclusive content, etc.

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Speaker 2: That people get early access to, specifically from Counterpoints. So

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Speaker 2: it's a great guess that is coming later. So you're

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Speaker 2: going to want to go ahead and sign up Breakingpoints

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Speaker 2: dot Com to become a premium subscriber. So, as Crystal

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Speaker 2: alluded to, there's been some crazy Biden old man moments.

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Speaker 2: You may have seen them, but we probably didn't see

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Speaker 2: some of the most insane cope that we have gotten yet,

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Speaker 2: both from MSNBC's Joe Scarborough and others on the network.

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Speaker 2: Let's first start off with Biden at the G seven,

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Speaker 2: where historic gathering of some of the most unpopular leaders

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Speaker 2: in the entire world coming together. There's certainly something to

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Speaker 2: be said about that, which we'll get to in a

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Speaker 2: little bit. Where Biden, certainly a guest, made some headlines

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Speaker 2: with some of his behavior.

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Speaker 3: Let's go ahead and just take a look at this.

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Speaker 2: So this is the most famous moment at the G

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Speaker 2: seven for some reason, and they decided that people should

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Speaker 2: parachute in for no good reason in front of all

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Speaker 2: the G seven leaders, and they're all nodding and clapping approvingly. Well,

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Speaker 2: what everyone's focusing on here is this very strange Biden

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Speaker 2: wandering off moment where you could see him just basically

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Speaker 2: walking away from all the other leaders. He goes and

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Speaker 2: tries to engage with people who are jumping on the

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Speaker 2: other side, and then has to be called back there

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Speaker 2: by Maloney from Italy. Of course, he has to be

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Speaker 2: the only person to cover up his face with the

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Speaker 2: aviators to avoid the old man squint, and a lot

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Speaker 2: of people focusing in on this just because it is

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Speaker 2: the most classic hallmark of like old man kind of lost,

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Speaker 2: seemingly listless. Now, Crystal the White House is accusing everyone

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Speaker 2: who is showing this video of selectively not telling the

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Speaker 2: whole story. And the whole story, according to them, is

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Speaker 2: that he was simply just wandering off in order to

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Speaker 2: give a thumbs up there to the other parachutists. But

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Speaker 2: they can't erase the weird optics of the situations of

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Speaker 2: anything you want to say before we get to some

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Speaker 2: of the other ones.

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Speaker 1: Well, I'll just say, as a prelude to the other

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Speaker 1: ones that perhaps if this was an isolated incident. Yes,

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Speaker 1: he may be more inclined to buy their spin Like, Okay,

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Speaker 1: anybody who's on camera a lot, you might have a

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Speaker 1: few weird awkward moments, because all human beings at some

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Speaker 1: level are fundamentally awkward. But given the track record here,

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Speaker 1: I think the initial impression of yet another wandering old

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Speaker 1: man moment is probably the accurate one.

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Speaker 3: That's right.

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Speaker 2: So then, in the span of seventy two hours, Biden

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Speaker 2: also finds himself in Los Angeles, right at a fundraiser

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Speaker 2: with George Clooney and Julia Roberts and Barack Obama. Well,

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Speaker 2: let's go ahead and play some of this first. Here

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Speaker 2: at a fundraiser in Los Angeles, there's a ritzy gathering,

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Speaker 2: George Clooney, Julia Roberts, Biden basically being led away from

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Speaker 2: the stage by Obama.

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Speaker 3: Now you can say again whatever you want, it's there.

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Speaker 3: Not good. Here, very odd meeting with the Pope, Biden.

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Speaker 2: Himself Catholic, basically touching heads with the Pope.

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Speaker 3: And then here let's take a listen to him with

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Speaker 3: a TikTok.

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Speaker 5: Guy, and I know you're a typical pressure guy. You're

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Speaker 5: grabbing me in front of this all and said, oh, man,

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Speaker 5: I trust you. As far as I throw your phone,

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Speaker 5: I can add a good arm. Man, I can throw

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Speaker 5: a long way. But my point is this, I've made

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Speaker 5: very clear to the Israelis, but they have to do

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Speaker 5: in the near term. If they don't, that's gonna So.

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Speaker 6: What's gonna help.

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Speaker 3: See, guy's gonna cut off fronds.

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Speaker 5: Because usually need to tell me I have a nice suit,

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Speaker 5: and you did today, so.

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Speaker 3: Please thank you.

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Speaker 2: So being led away by Obama, I mean, the optics

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Speaker 2: on that are just horrible because it's already the former president,

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Speaker 2: the most popular Democrat in the entire.

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Speaker 3: Country, leading away the aging president.

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Speaker 2: Weird interaction with the pope that one you know that

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Speaker 2: might not even be aged. That's just vintage Biden. Then

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Speaker 2: you've got him having an old man moment with this

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Speaker 2: TikToker where the backstory is that this guy was invited

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Speaker 2: to a VIP reception of the White House. And then

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Speaker 2: look how angry Biden gets at him threatening to throw

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Speaker 2: his phone when he just asked a question about Gaza.

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Speaker 2: He immediately calls him some typical prescott. I could throw

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Speaker 2: your phone as far as I can. So you've got

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Speaker 2: the ornerinist. You've got the wandering away, You've got all

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Speaker 2: of this literally happening in the span of like seventy

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Speaker 2: two to ninety six hours.

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Speaker 3: There's no spinning this away. It is what it is.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, And with the TikTok guy, I mean, there's a

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Speaker 1: lot to say about that one, because first you have

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Speaker 1: these are TikTok influencers you invited to the White House

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Speaker 1: because there's an assumption that they're like, you know, going

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Speaker 1: to be on your side, et cetera. You're antagonizing them.

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Speaker 1: You don't seem to really understand who they are or

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Speaker 1: why they're there.

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Speaker 4: They're not some typical press guy.

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Speaker 1: And then when he's asked a question about Israel, are

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Speaker 1: you going to keep funding Israel? I mean, there's there's

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Speaker 1: such a long pause too before he can marshal any

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Speaker 1: sort of a response. Then ultimately AIDS have to swoop

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Speaker 1: in and rescue him. I mean, this is just on

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Speaker 1: like the simplest, possible and most obvious question from this

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Speaker 1: influencer who obviously is there because they think he's more

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Speaker 1: or less friendly a friendly so underscores the issues that

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Speaker 1: Biden obviously has with young people over the gods of war.

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Speaker 4: We're going to show some numbers too.

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Speaker 1: I mean, is this a significant issue for his African

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Speaker 1: American base as well?

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Speaker 4: So just listen.

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Speaker 1: I mean you have to be insane, delusional, a liar, etc.

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Speaker 1: To deny the reality in front of our face at

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Speaker 1: this point, which is Joe Biden may well very well

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Speaker 1: survive another four years, but on some key levels, he's

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Speaker 1: already gone.

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Speaker 4: I mean, even from when he.

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Speaker 1: Was elected just a few years ago, the decline is notable.

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Speaker 1: And we know that not just because of the little

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Speaker 1: clips that happened to sneak out, but because they refused

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Speaker 1: to allow him to even do you know, the limited

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Speaker 1: interviews he was doing before. So I maintained that you know,

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Speaker 1: a few years, whether he loses now or he you know,

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Speaker 1: gets gains reelection, And we're talking a number of years

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Speaker 1: down the road. Once he's out of office, maybe two

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Speaker 1: years later, there's going to be some White House insider

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Speaker 1: writes a tell all about the decline, about the things

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Speaker 1: they witnessed, about the moments where he couldn't marshal the words,

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Speaker 1: where he didn't know what people were talking about, where

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Speaker 1: he was confused. It's you know, it's getting to I

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Speaker 1: don't think we're quite too, but getting towards Diane Feinstein

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Speaker 1: type of levels Wherewin's just pretending who's around him that no, no,

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Speaker 1: he's vigorous and you don't see him, you know, off camera,

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Speaker 1: et cetera.

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Speaker 4: Like we're not stupid, we are not stupid.

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Speaker 2: Well, you said you'd have to be a liar or

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Speaker 2: propagandist to deny this, and we found our fair share

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Speaker 2: over at MSNBC. Let's take listen to how they're spinning it.

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Speaker 3: It needs to be sad.

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Speaker 7: I mean you you you have jump Bien here with it.

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Speaker 3: Schedule would be brutal for anybody.

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Speaker 7: Oh my god, I'm president any a going to Europe,

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Speaker 7: you know, Dons on d Day and spending five days

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Speaker 7: in France, going over to the G seven.

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Speaker 4: In the middle of the personal struggles.

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Speaker 7: In the middle of the personal struggles, the Hunter trial,

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Speaker 7: and and yesterday I even even critics were saying that

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Speaker 7: that he did a strong job, very good job representing

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Speaker 7: the United States, even though again we have some some

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Speaker 7: cheap fakes that the RNC once again uh spreading vicious

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Speaker 7: lies about Joe Biden. But that's just that's that's who

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Speaker 7: they are, that's who they've become We will point out

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Speaker 7: a second, but Jonathan merr I was struck by that,

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Speaker 7: struck by the strong, strong message as well that Joe

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Speaker 7: Biden delivered yesterday.

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Speaker 6: I mean, the United States and our great allies in

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Speaker 6: Europe have really stood shoulder to shoulder here other than

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Speaker 6: Mike Johnson and Donald Trump holding up badly needed UH

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Speaker 6: security aid the Ukraine.

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Speaker 8: Now that that roadblock has gotten pasted, and people who

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Speaker 8: actually love freedom and love democracy and hate authoritarians who

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Speaker 8: invade other countries, it seems to me we have them

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Speaker 8: out numbered.

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Speaker 2: Got them out numbered. Yeah, certainly with the most unpopular people.

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Speaker 3: In all of Europe.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, we'll get to that, and our little France segment

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Speaker 2: about how the Ukraine situation is basically collapsing the entire center, right,

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Speaker 2: you know, the entire center. I coalition in France, one

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Speaker 2: of the great powers on the continent.

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Speaker 3: Put the policy aside.

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Speaker 2: He's like, look at the strong, vigorous job, and what

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Speaker 2: a tough schedule. It's like, that is the most basic

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Speaker 2: schedule for a president. Yes, we expect it's a tough schedule.

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Speaker 2: It's opposed to be the toughest job in the world.

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Speaker 2: That's why ostensibly, you want somebody who is strong in

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Speaker 2: that job that can cope with it. We don't give

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Speaker 2: them points for doing the most basics of traveling from

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Speaker 2: Europe to Los Angeles for a fundraiser. It's also not

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Speaker 2: like easy into doing anything anything special. Oh he went

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Speaker 2: and saw and attended to review on D Day. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: so is every single president who has ever held the office.

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Speaker 2: That's literally part of the job description. So there's so

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Speaker 2: much going on there. But yeah, maybe it pales in

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Speaker 2: comparison to our next clip before. If you want to

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Speaker 2: say anything.

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Speaker 1: Before, yeah, let me. I just want to comment on

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Speaker 1: the policy. I mean this line about the you know, oh,

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Speaker 1: if you believe in freedom and democracy, Like are you

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Speaker 1: kidding me? How can you even mouth those words now

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Speaker 1: given the support for Israel committing a genocide in Gaga, Like,

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Speaker 1: how can you pretend that human rights and freedom and

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Speaker 1: democracy has anything to do with this foreign policy? How

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Speaker 1: can you even pretend at this point with regard to

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Speaker 1: Ukraine that the policy has been anything other than abject

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Speaker 1: and complete disaster with monstrous results first and foremost for

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Speaker 1: Ukrainian men in Ukrainian society. Like that's the part that

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Speaker 1: gets me is It'd be one thing if you could

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Speaker 1: point at the policy and be like, well, he's really

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Speaker 1: freaking old, and I'm not sure if he's going to

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Speaker 1: make it another but at least things are going good,

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Speaker 1: but they're not, especially on foreign affairs. To try to

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Speaker 1: make that argument that he's been a strong, effective leader

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Speaker 1: is just complete and utter lies, propaganda and insanity that

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Speaker 1: I can't even believe that Joe Scarborough believes. I mean,

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Speaker 1: this person is not an idiot. He's not an idiot,

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Speaker 1: he's not naive. He was in Washington, he knows the

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Speaker 1: real reasons that these people actually make the decisions that

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Speaker 1: they do, and it has nothing to do with, you know,

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Speaker 1: defending democracy or human rights.

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Speaker 4: Et cetera.

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Speaker 1: But he also, Joe Scarborough has a track record of

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Speaker 1: being wrong and basically every major foreign policy of an

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Speaker 1: issue of our time.

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Speaker 4: So I guess it's par for the course.

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Speaker 2: Even more MSNBC slavish North Korean propaganda, let's take a lesson.

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Speaker 5: It's amazing because you think about the fact that the

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Speaker 5: president is playing chess and the former president at best

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Speaker 5: is playing like hungary, hungry hippo.

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Speaker 9: Yeah, well, if that maybe una, I'm gonna give he's

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Speaker 9: playing O O now and somebody keeps telling him draw four.

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Speaker 9: I just you know, it's the split screen this week,

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Speaker 9: much like this split screen last week. We keep talking

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Speaker 9: about the split screens that have happened, and again much

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Speaker 9: for everyone to say. And you know, oh, Joe Biden

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Speaker 9: seems a little too old. I don't know about you,

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Speaker 9: but from France doing all these things, coming back to America,

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Speaker 9: going back out to the G seven in Italy.

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Speaker 3: Now he's on.

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Speaker 9: His way to la right now as we speak, to

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Speaker 9: do another event. This is and I don't know where

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Speaker 9: Donald Trump has been. Oh oh yes, I didn't know

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Speaker 9: where he's been railing. Really, I'll get the machine on

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Speaker 9: a stage.

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Speaker 10: It's a little bit marginal, but I think it shows

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Speaker 10: that the one thing we've known about Joe Biden since

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Speaker 10: he took office is this is a man who meets

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Speaker 10: his moments. He met his moment at the beginning, he

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Speaker 10: met his moment with the economic crisis in the wake

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Speaker 10: of COVID, he met his moment with Ukraine. He has

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Speaker 10: met his moment over and over and over again. And

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Speaker 10: I think, now, look, we're just a few days away

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Speaker 10: now from that first debate, and so what the split

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Speaker 10: screen is going to look like is exactly what we're

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Speaker 10: going to see in Atlanta not too long from now,

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Speaker 10: which is someone railing against the ghosts.

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Speaker 3: Who else is in the room with you?

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Speaker 10: Donald? Do you see the people there with someone who's

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Speaker 10: going to be like you really went four more years

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Speaker 10: of this?

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Speaker 3: Like, I don't know what's what's screen?

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Speaker 2: Middle look at because the only one I'm seeing here

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Speaker 2: is Biden. Now, look Trump, He certainly says some off

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Speaker 2: the wall stuff and he goes on his meandering rabbit

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Speaker 2: holes that said, I covered him for many many years.

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Speaker 2: That has been par for the course now for a

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Speaker 2: long time, long before even this race. It's not all

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Speaker 2: that noticeable, honestly in terms of the difference in his performance,

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Speaker 2: whereas with Biden, I mean, I don't know how again

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Speaker 2: you can deny reality. We also have this we can

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Speaker 2: put up there on the screen. This is from the

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Speaker 2: New York Post. They report that Biden's condition quote shocks

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Speaker 2: allies at the G seven summit, with one saying that

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Speaker 2: it is worst he has ever been.

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Speaker 3: This was during discussions at the G seven.

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Speaker 2: Diplomatic insider telling British press quote that Biden had been

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Speaker 2: losing focus, and that is the worst that he has

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Speaker 2: ever been. In several separate instances, he had awkward, you know,

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Speaker 2: exchanges with Meloney from Italy. Quote apparently got on the

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Speaker 2: wrong foot with her, keeping her waiting for over twenty

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Speaker 2: minutes before arriving for an unknown reason. Then in the

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Speaker 2: meeting itself, like things kind of went off the rails.

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Speaker 2: At the same time, he had all these meetings with

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Speaker 2: other leaders, many of them allegedly or at least their

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Speaker 2: aides telling all of their local media they're shocked at

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Speaker 2: his condition. This is just more and more that adds

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Speaker 2: to what we already see on the camera. And yet

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Speaker 2: for them, it's like they are literally living in a

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Speaker 2: different reality.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I wonder with the MSNBC crew, like, does

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Speaker 1: their own audience even believe this and buy us at this.

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Speaker 4: Point, I don't actually think.

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Speaker 3: I don't know, I.

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Speaker 1: Don't actually think so, maybe because their audience is so small.

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Speaker 1: But when you look at the word clouds that we

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Speaker 1: had from jail Partners last week, every demographic, every partisan group, Democrats, Republicans,

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Speaker 1: and certainly independence. Most of all, independence the number one

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Speaker 1: word they associated with Joe Biden as old. So I

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Speaker 1: don't even know, if the MSNBC crowd is buying that

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Speaker 1: he's playing nine dychs while TRUP is playing Hungry Hungry. Ifoh,

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Speaker 1: I mean this kind of amusing turn of phrase, I

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Speaker 1: wish it actually applied. You know, if I didn't think

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Speaker 1: Joe Biden was a monster at this point, I might

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Speaker 1: find the whole situation somewhat tragic, because here's a man

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Speaker 1: who chased the White House his entire adult life. Finally

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Speaker 1: he's able to grab the brass ring, and it comes

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Speaker 1: at a time when he's basically too old to do

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Speaker 1: the job. And I think, I don't know if it

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Speaker 1: was just manipulation, public manipulation, or if he really considered

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Speaker 1: if he had more self awareness at the time when

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Speaker 1: he was running back in twenty twenty and he was

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Speaker 1: suggesting to the public that he would step down, that

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Speaker 1: he would serve only one term, and now that he's

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Speaker 1: in the job, there's both just the you know, the

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Speaker 1: allure of the power and not wanting to give that up.

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Speaker 1: But also I think as he has gotten to a

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Speaker 1: point of age and decline, he doesn't have enough self

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Speaker 1: awareness to realize how much he's lost at this point.

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Speaker 1: So in any case, whether it was just a sheer

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Speaker 1: lie for public manipulation, or whether he really had some

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Speaker 1: thoughts of moving aside. You know, if you actually believe

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Speaker 1: the things that Democrats claim to believe about the existential

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Speaker 1: threats facing the country is this is you know what

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Speaker 1: Jane Yuger says, and I think he's one hundred percent correct.

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Speaker 1: This is one of the most selfish, narcissistic moves that

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Speaker 1: you could possibly make. It really is a betrayal of

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Speaker 1: his own voters and the reasons that they put him

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Speaker 1: in place to begin with. And it has set up

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Speaker 1: Democrats for potentially a stunning loss against another incredibly weak

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Speaker 1: candidate who would be easily defeated by virtually any other

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Speaker 1: just like normal basically coherent democrat.

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Speaker 2: We have a lot of polling actually to show some

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Speaker 2: of the dichotomies that we have in the race. Let's

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Speaker 2: go to the next block here, please, and let's start

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Speaker 2: with the first element, the quote dread election. Let's go

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Speaker 2: and put it up there on the screen. The share

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Speaker 2: of quote double haters has hit historic highs. Now, what

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Speaker 2: you can see in front of you is that the

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Speaker 2: share of Americans who have unfavorable views of both major

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Speaker 2: party candidates is at an all time high, nearly as

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Speaker 2: high as twenty sixteen when Hillary Clinton was on the ballot.

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Speaker 2: There has really been no parallel for those two elections

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Speaker 2: twenty sixteen and twenty twenty four. Even only just thirteen

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Speaker 2: percent back in twenty twenty said that they had an

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Speaker 2: unfavorable an unfavorable view of both of the major party candidates. Now,

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Speaker 2: this actually could be a decent thing for Trump. We'll

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Speaker 2: get to that. We have to parse some of the

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Speaker 2: nuances here. But last time around, the unfavorable views of

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Speaker 2: hate both parties broke hard for Trump because people had

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Speaker 2: a very negative view of Hillary Clinton. There is some

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Speaker 2: evidence to say that some of that unfavorability could be

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Speaker 2: transferring over to Joe Biden. But what this has also

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Speaker 2: done is it has really forced a choice amongst key

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Speaker 2: parts of coalition voters. Let's put this up there. As

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Speaker 2: you alluded to, Joe Biden somehow has gained significantly amongst

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Speaker 2: older voters. Now, traditionally older voters are more conservative, and

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Speaker 2: the thesis was that yes, Democrats were going to lose

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Speaker 2: older voters, but keep the margin relatively small and will

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Speaker 2: blow it out amongst Black, Hispanic and younger voters. Well,

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Speaker 2: what you can see actually in front of you is

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Speaker 2: that a lot of the data that has been collected

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Speaker 2: recently shows that there has been a big flip, mostly

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Speaker 2: in the last couple of years, where some fifty one

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Speaker 2: percent now of people who are over the age of

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Speaker 2: sixty five support Biden, and as significantly drop for Trump

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Speaker 2: in his support, which was well above fifty percent in

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Speaker 2: twenty twenty, down to just forty two. And I think

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Speaker 2: a lot of the data that we've talked about here

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Speaker 2: on this show can give us some inklings as to why.

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Speaker 2: First and foremost is that the number one reason that

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Speaker 2: younger voters, Hispanic voters, and others people were supporting Trump

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Speaker 2: is they want change, even though they don't even like Trump,

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Speaker 2: they just want a major change, a shock to the system.

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Speaker 2: Inflation is killing them. They're having problems with housing in general.

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Speaker 2: They see like a real shakiness uncertainty in terms of

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Speaker 2: America's foreign policy abroad. If you're old, I mean, this

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Speaker 2: has been the greatest term you know, in modern history. Right,

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Speaker 2: You've seen significant increase in your housing prices. You in

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Speaker 2: general have a good steak in the system. You have

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Speaker 2: enough of a cushion in order to be able to

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Speaker 2: eat inflation. A lot of these boomer voters, I mean,

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Speaker 2: they have very different views on Israel on Ukraine.

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Speaker 3: Right.

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Speaker 2: These are people who view Russia literally remember the Cold

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Speaker 2: War and in some cases haven't really forgotten it. So

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Speaker 2: for them, they've gotten a lot of what they want.

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Speaker 2: In fact, they probably hold against Biden that he withdrew

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Speaker 2: from Afghanistan. These are the coalition of voters that delivered

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Speaker 2: Georgia w push the same White House they remember nine

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Speaker 2: to eleven. They're probably still steeped in a lot of

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Speaker 2: that propaganda. They watch a lot of cable news, and

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Speaker 2: that's why I said many of them may believe the propaganda.

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Speaker 2: These are the key demos that keep all three of

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Speaker 2: the cable news networks going. So for them, you could

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Speaker 2: see that their stake in the system is actually doing

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Speaker 2: well well. A stake for everybody else is not doing well.

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Speaker 2: And that's what explains that overall drop. And when Trump

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Speaker 2: runs against the system, he in in a way is

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Speaker 2: running against the consensus for a lot of the people

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Speaker 2: who are older.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and just to underscore the fact that I mean,

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Speaker 1: in modern history, this would be unprecedented for Republicans to

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Speaker 1: lose older voters, and it has been a huge benefit

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Speaker 1: to them electorally that older voters have been so strongly

439
00:21:42,800 --> 00:21:46,520
Speaker 1: in their camp. Why because they vote. We're going to

440
00:21:46,560 --> 00:21:48,760
Speaker 1: get to this in a minute. The way that this

441
00:21:48,920 --> 00:21:52,040
Speaker 1: is contributing to a huge shift in you know who

442
00:21:52,160 --> 00:21:55,320
Speaker 1: in frequent voters favor. But just to pause on the

443
00:21:55,359 --> 00:21:59,360
Speaker 1: older demographic shifting to Biden, it really is remarkable. It's

444
00:21:59,400 --> 00:22:03,440
Speaker 1: interesting because, for one thing, I think Joe Biden is

445
00:22:03,480 --> 00:22:06,760
Speaker 1: a product of his generation. What he has his finger

446
00:22:06,840 --> 00:22:09,440
Speaker 1: on the pulse of is how your average eighty year

447
00:22:09,440 --> 00:22:12,439
Speaker 1: old fields about these conflicts and about the country and

448
00:22:12,480 --> 00:22:15,199
Speaker 1: about the economy, et cetera. And in fact, when you

449
00:22:15,240 --> 00:22:19,280
Speaker 1: look at the issues that Democrats are prioritizing, you know

450
00:22:19,359 --> 00:22:22,240
Speaker 1: the fact that they lead with preserving democracy, well, it's

451
00:22:22,320 --> 00:22:26,120
Speaker 1: older voters who say that that is a top priority.

452
00:22:26,560 --> 00:22:29,600
Speaker 1: And so not only do you have the bifurcated economy

453
00:22:29,640 --> 00:22:31,640
Speaker 1: that you're talking about, soccer where if you are an

454
00:22:31,680 --> 00:22:34,600
Speaker 1: asset owner, which you know that very much skews along

455
00:22:35,000 --> 00:22:37,960
Speaker 1: age demographic lines. So if you are an older voter,

456
00:22:38,040 --> 00:22:40,360
Speaker 1: you're much more likely to be a homeowner, You're much

457
00:22:40,359 --> 00:22:42,680
Speaker 1: more likely to have you know, some investments in the

458
00:22:42,720 --> 00:22:46,360
Speaker 1: stock market or four oh one K retirement account. You're

459
00:22:46,440 --> 00:22:49,760
Speaker 1: much more likely to own assets. And those are the

460
00:22:49,760 --> 00:22:53,880
Speaker 1: people who have benefited overwhelmingly from our economic system under

461
00:22:53,960 --> 00:22:55,800
Speaker 1: Joe Biden, but honestly for the last like, you know,

462
00:22:55,880 --> 00:22:58,760
Speaker 1: several decades, that's the way our economy has been set up.

463
00:22:59,000 --> 00:23:02,359
Speaker 1: It's just particularly notable, and that divide is growing and growing.

464
00:23:02,359 --> 00:23:05,720
Speaker 1: So for you, yeah, things seem really good economically. Well,

465
00:23:05,760 --> 00:23:08,920
Speaker 1: that allows you to prioritize some of these more sort

466
00:23:08,960 --> 00:23:13,040
Speaker 1: of high minded theoretical issues like quote unquote preserving democracy.

467
00:23:13,600 --> 00:23:16,879
Speaker 4: You also have a group of voters and older voters.

468
00:23:16,520 --> 00:23:19,040
Speaker 1: Who remember a time when there was a lot more

469
00:23:19,200 --> 00:23:23,440
Speaker 1: reference and trust in American institutions. You know, if you're

470
00:23:23,480 --> 00:23:25,880
Speaker 1: a young voter and your a whole life has been

471
00:23:25,880 --> 00:23:30,280
Speaker 1: formed in the you know, post Iraq War, post financial crisis,

472
00:23:30,680 --> 00:23:34,919
Speaker 1: Donald Trump era, your whole like, oh, the institutions, the norms,

473
00:23:34,960 --> 00:23:37,399
Speaker 1: the guardrails, like, you just don't have that in you.

474
00:23:37,680 --> 00:23:40,320
Speaker 1: Whereas for older voters, there's still this instinct that Joe

475
00:23:40,320 --> 00:23:43,520
Speaker 1: Biden really reflects of these institutions really matter and we

476
00:23:43,600 --> 00:23:46,879
Speaker 1: really have to preserve them, and that's top priority. Also,

477
00:23:46,920 --> 00:23:49,280
Speaker 1: as I said, if you're doing economically better, you can

478
00:23:49,320 --> 00:23:52,719
Speaker 1: sort of afford to have those types of concerns. So

479
00:23:52,920 --> 00:23:55,800
Speaker 1: I think the democratic message in a lot of ways

480
00:23:56,000 --> 00:23:59,840
Speaker 1: is perfectly pitched and tuned to this older demographic. And

481
00:23:59,840 --> 00:24:03,040
Speaker 1: you are already mentioned as well on foid affairs. This

482
00:24:03,160 --> 00:24:05,600
Speaker 1: is the group that's the most pro Ukraine. This is

483
00:24:05,640 --> 00:24:08,359
Speaker 1: the group that shares the views of Joe Biden, Viza

484
00:24:08,440 --> 00:24:11,040
Speaker 1: the Israel and has you know, in their mind this

485
00:24:11,160 --> 00:24:14,280
Speaker 1: is our ally and you know, against the Soviet Union

486
00:24:14,320 --> 00:24:16,959
Speaker 1: in the Cold War, and we just stand by Israel.

487
00:24:17,040 --> 00:24:19,800
Speaker 1: That's what we do, period, end of story. And also

488
00:24:19,880 --> 00:24:22,359
Speaker 1: have an understanding of Israel. It's very different from what

489
00:24:22,640 --> 00:24:25,760
Speaker 1: is actually going on in modern Israel today. So you know,

490
00:24:25,760 --> 00:24:28,000
Speaker 1: when you think about all those pieces, it makes a

491
00:24:28,200 --> 00:24:30,440
Speaker 1: hell of a lot of sense. And it also reminds

492
00:24:30,480 --> 00:24:33,399
Speaker 1: us that voters are not stupid or irrational. You for

493
00:24:33,440 --> 00:24:35,919
Speaker 1: older voters who've benefited from this system, I guess this

494
00:24:35,960 --> 00:24:37,000
Speaker 1: is a rational place to be.

495
00:24:37,359 --> 00:24:41,159
Speaker 2: Yeah, people vote their interests mostly, and actually, as you

496
00:24:41,200 --> 00:24:43,399
Speaker 2: just said, when they fulfilled the majority of their interests,

497
00:24:43,440 --> 00:24:46,239
Speaker 2: then they can worry about high minded ideals. Well, and

498
00:24:46,400 --> 00:24:49,280
Speaker 2: let's be very very clear, he could win because of this,

499
00:24:49,520 --> 00:24:50,720
Speaker 2: and that is the craziest part.

500
00:24:50,760 --> 00:24:52,359
Speaker 3: Let's put this off on the screen.

501
00:24:52,440 --> 00:24:55,359
Speaker 2: Fantastic right up here from the New York Times really

502
00:24:55,400 --> 00:24:57,840
Speaker 2: confirms a lot of what we've talked about here, where

503
00:24:58,000 --> 00:25:01,359
Speaker 2: the headline is if everyone voted, would Biden benefit not

504
00:25:01,480 --> 00:25:04,040
Speaker 2: anymore so. If you voted in the twenty twenty two

505
00:25:04,119 --> 00:25:07,600
Speaker 2: primary election, it was a Biden plus five overall in

506
00:25:07,640 --> 00:25:09,640
Speaker 2: the sample. But if you voted in the twenty twenty

507
00:25:09,680 --> 00:25:13,359
Speaker 2: two midterms but not the primaries, it was just Biden

508
00:25:13,520 --> 00:25:16,639
Speaker 2: plus one. In other words, people who are very invested

509
00:25:16,800 --> 00:25:20,120
Speaker 2: primary voters, people who come out when others don't, Those

510
00:25:20,200 --> 00:25:23,399
Speaker 2: people are skewing much more heavily Biden. Let's go in

511
00:25:23,480 --> 00:25:26,480
Speaker 2: head to the next one, because this confirms even more.

512
00:25:26,600 --> 00:25:29,760
Speaker 2: If you voted in the twenty twenty presidential election but

513
00:25:29,880 --> 00:25:32,360
Speaker 2: you didn't vote in a primary or in a midterm,

514
00:25:32,480 --> 00:25:35,520
Speaker 2: Trump is actually winning that group by plus one. So

515
00:25:36,200 --> 00:25:39,199
Speaker 2: what do we know about presidential elections? Huge portions of

516
00:25:39,200 --> 00:25:42,040
Speaker 2: the public only come out to vote in presidentials. If

517
00:25:42,080 --> 00:25:45,600
Speaker 2: they come out to vote at all, mostly infrequent, they

518
00:25:45,680 --> 00:25:48,679
Speaker 2: might like Trump. They hadn't voted since nineteen eighty four

519
00:25:48,800 --> 00:25:50,280
Speaker 2: or whatever. They're like, Oh, I like what this guy

520
00:25:50,440 --> 00:25:53,000
Speaker 2: has to say, or I really hate Trump. Okay, I'm

521
00:25:53,000 --> 00:25:55,560
Speaker 2: going to come out and vote. But they don't frequently vote.

522
00:25:55,600 --> 00:25:59,159
Speaker 2: They don't you know, they don't register for campaigns, or

523
00:25:59,240 --> 00:26:02,800
Speaker 2: they don't sign petitions, they're not going to city council meetings,

524
00:26:02,800 --> 00:26:05,760
Speaker 2: et cetera. Those people are the people that Trump is winning.

525
00:26:05,800 --> 00:26:08,080
Speaker 2: Right now, let's go to the next one too as well.

526
00:26:08,480 --> 00:26:10,920
Speaker 2: No voting history. This is the crazy part, and this

527
00:26:11,000 --> 00:26:13,480
Speaker 2: is what Biden people should really be afraid of. It's

528
00:26:13,600 --> 00:26:18,439
Speaker 2: Trump plus fourteen people who have never voted before. Now again,

529
00:26:18,760 --> 00:26:21,600
Speaker 2: that could be a good thing if they do come

530
00:26:21,600 --> 00:26:22,280
Speaker 2: out to vote.

531
00:26:22,359 --> 00:26:24,040
Speaker 3: It's also you know.

532
00:26:24,040 --> 00:26:26,879
Speaker 2: The past is usually predictive of future behavior, as in,

533
00:26:27,040 --> 00:26:29,360
Speaker 2: if you've never voted before, why should we have any

534
00:26:29,359 --> 00:26:32,560
Speaker 2: confidence that you're actually going to go and vote on

535
00:26:32,640 --> 00:26:34,800
Speaker 2: election day or get a mail in ballot and send

536
00:26:34,840 --> 00:26:37,280
Speaker 2: it in. Takes a little bit of effort, effort that

537
00:26:37,320 --> 00:26:40,400
Speaker 2: you've never mustered previously. If we'll go to the next

538
00:26:40,440 --> 00:26:43,280
Speaker 2: part as well, you can continue to see if everyone

539
00:26:43,359 --> 00:26:46,719
Speaker 2: voted again, it is not it is not Biden who

540
00:26:46,760 --> 00:26:48,679
Speaker 2: would benefit. And the reason why this is such a

541
00:26:48,680 --> 00:26:53,320
Speaker 2: big flip is just because in all of the past Previously,

542
00:26:53,680 --> 00:26:56,520
Speaker 2: it was a Democratic talking point that if we just

543
00:26:56,560 --> 00:26:58,880
Speaker 2: got these hundred million people who had never voted before,

544
00:26:59,000 --> 00:27:01,320
Speaker 2: if they actually came out to vote, Democrats would win

545
00:27:01,440 --> 00:27:05,359
Speaker 2: every single election. But Trump has completely realigned that where

546
00:27:05,640 --> 00:27:08,919
Speaker 2: these frequent voters, suburban women and older voters who are

547
00:27:09,000 --> 00:27:12,040
Speaker 2: voting on either abortion and or preserving democracy, they are

548
00:27:12,040 --> 00:27:15,560
Speaker 2: crawling over broken glass to participate. And it used to

549
00:27:15,600 --> 00:27:17,600
Speaker 2: be that many of those people were Republicans, but a

550
00:27:17,600 --> 00:27:19,119
Speaker 2: lot of them are very rich, and a lot of

551
00:27:19,160 --> 00:27:22,080
Speaker 2: them are very old, and on aggregate, those are the

552
00:27:22,080 --> 00:27:24,440
Speaker 2: people that you would always want to be coming out

553
00:27:24,440 --> 00:27:26,600
Speaker 2: for you, because that's how you prevail at the local

554
00:27:26,640 --> 00:27:29,639
Speaker 2: and the state and the federal election. So Obama was

555
00:27:29,720 --> 00:27:31,280
Speaker 2: kind of the inverse of this. He was the king

556
00:27:31,320 --> 00:27:34,879
Speaker 2: of winning the infrequent voter, which is why he would win. Meanwhile,

557
00:27:34,920 --> 00:27:37,240
Speaker 2: you know, a thousand state house seats, both chambers of

558
00:27:37,280 --> 00:27:40,800
Speaker 2: Congress midterm elections, he would always suffer. Now it seems

559
00:27:40,800 --> 00:27:44,040
Speaker 2: that Biden is actually flipping that around. Then, you know,

560
00:27:44,080 --> 00:27:46,480
Speaker 2: we come down to this trite you know observation, quote

561
00:27:46,520 --> 00:27:49,200
Speaker 2: unquote it comes down to turnout. But unironically it really

562
00:27:49,240 --> 00:27:52,600
Speaker 2: does here Crystal, because this time, if it's a high

563
00:27:52,680 --> 00:27:55,600
Speaker 2: turnout election like in twenty twenty, I think Trump is

564
00:27:55,640 --> 00:27:57,960
Speaker 2: going to win. If it's a low turnout election, then

565
00:27:57,960 --> 00:27:59,800
Speaker 2: I think Biden is going to win because he's got

566
00:27:59,800 --> 00:28:04,000
Speaker 2: more actual frequent voters who are coming out. And on balance,

567
00:28:04,080 --> 00:28:06,000
Speaker 2: those are the people in general who you want to

568
00:28:06,040 --> 00:28:07,679
Speaker 2: bet on. You never know what if it rains on

569
00:28:07,720 --> 00:28:10,160
Speaker 2: election day, what if this happens, What if that happens.

570
00:28:10,200 --> 00:28:13,199
Speaker 2: Like the people who you want who are always voting that,

571
00:28:13,320 --> 00:28:15,040
Speaker 2: those are the people who you want with you on

572
00:28:15,119 --> 00:28:15,720
Speaker 2: election day.

573
00:28:16,359 --> 00:28:18,880
Speaker 1: And the funny thing is even the two parties don't

574
00:28:18,880 --> 00:28:22,159
Speaker 1: seem to have realized the way this has flipped because

575
00:28:22,200 --> 00:28:25,119
Speaker 1: so much of modern political history. I mean, think of

576
00:28:25,160 --> 00:28:27,760
Speaker 1: all the battles that have been fought over like voter

577
00:28:27,960 --> 00:28:32,359
Speaker 1: id and it's always Democrats on the side of let's

578
00:28:32,400 --> 00:28:36,080
Speaker 1: do mail in voting. Let's have a longer early voting period,

579
00:28:36,160 --> 00:28:38,560
Speaker 1: Let's extend the hours, Let's make it easier to vote.

580
00:28:38,600 --> 00:28:40,160
Speaker 1: Let's make it so you don't have to have a

581
00:28:40,280 --> 00:28:42,320
Speaker 1: driver's license in order to vote, so we can get

582
00:28:42,360 --> 00:28:45,120
Speaker 1: as many people as possible to the polls. And the

583
00:28:45,160 --> 00:28:47,920
Speaker 1: Republicans have are always and continue by the way, to

584
00:28:48,000 --> 00:28:50,360
Speaker 1: be on the other side of that of let's restrict

585
00:28:50,400 --> 00:28:52,520
Speaker 1: the hours, let's make it harder to vote, let's require

586
00:28:52,600 --> 00:28:54,640
Speaker 1: various forms of IDA in order to vote.

587
00:28:55,280 --> 00:28:56,960
Speaker 4: That just political logic.

588
00:28:57,040 --> 00:28:59,160
Speaker 1: You know, there's a morality question around that too, but

589
00:28:59,280 --> 00:29:02,400
Speaker 1: just in terms of the naked political calculus, it should

590
00:29:02,440 --> 00:29:04,880
Speaker 1: now be Democrats who were like, let's make it hard,

591
00:29:05,320 --> 00:29:08,320
Speaker 1: let's make it show that it's only during working hours,

592
00:29:08,360 --> 00:29:11,000
Speaker 1: and so only old retirees can easily go and cast

593
00:29:11,040 --> 00:29:15,680
Speaker 1: their ballots. So I think even the parties haven't recognized

594
00:29:15,720 --> 00:29:17,480
Speaker 1: the way the shift has occurred. It's hard for me

595
00:29:17,520 --> 00:29:19,720
Speaker 1: to wrap my head around because this is so baked

596
00:29:19,800 --> 00:29:24,560
Speaker 1: in to the Obama era like conception of politics that

597
00:29:24,600 --> 00:29:29,400
Speaker 1: the infrequent voters, that this new rising young coalition is

598
00:29:29,440 --> 00:29:32,000
Speaker 1: the core of the Democratic Party, and the Republicans have

599
00:29:32,120 --> 00:29:34,479
Speaker 1: the older voters who are always reliable, that's why they

600
00:29:34,520 --> 00:29:38,160
Speaker 1: always crush the Democrats. And special election and midterms, we

601
00:29:38,280 --> 00:29:40,360
Speaker 1: have seen the way that's flipped. And so you know,

602
00:29:40,360 --> 00:29:44,280
Speaker 1: as we've been covering the the special elections and in particular,

603
00:29:44,360 --> 00:29:47,280
Speaker 1: like we just covered the one in Ohio six where

604
00:29:47,440 --> 00:29:53,120
Speaker 1: Democrats outperformed by twenty points in a very red district

605
00:29:53,120 --> 00:29:56,240
Speaker 1: that Trump won by twenty nine points. That is a

606
00:29:56,280 --> 00:30:00,520
Speaker 1: story of who turned out. I believe we were looking

607
00:30:00,560 --> 00:30:01,960
Speaker 1: at some of the numbers in one of the key

608
00:30:02,000 --> 00:30:05,040
Speaker 1: counties there the Republican candidate who did prevail, but it

609
00:30:05,080 --> 00:30:07,960
Speaker 1: was much more narrow than it should have been. He

610
00:30:08,040 --> 00:30:12,480
Speaker 1: was only able to draw up twelve percent of Trump's

611
00:30:12,680 --> 00:30:16,400
Speaker 1: twenty twenty totals there, Whereas the Democratic candidate who spent

612
00:30:16,520 --> 00:30:18,640
Speaker 1: no money by the way, and was like basically no

613
00:30:18,640 --> 00:30:21,520
Speaker 1: one had ever heard of this person, he was able

614
00:30:21,600 --> 00:30:24,680
Speaker 1: to obtain about twenty two percent of Joe Biden's vote total.

615
00:30:24,720 --> 00:30:28,080
Speaker 1: So it's just purely a matter of turnout. So who's

616
00:30:28,120 --> 00:30:29,960
Speaker 1: going to show up on election day? I mean, it

617
00:30:30,040 --> 00:30:32,680
Speaker 1: really is very interest. It's hard for me to imagine

618
00:30:32,680 --> 00:30:35,200
Speaker 1: that people have never voted in presidential election before are

619
00:30:35,200 --> 00:30:37,880
Speaker 1: going to find this particular election so like exciting and

620
00:30:37,880 --> 00:30:40,320
Speaker 1: compelling that they're going to show up. But even when

621
00:30:40,320 --> 00:30:42,640
Speaker 1: you're just looking at the universe of people who voted

622
00:30:42,720 --> 00:30:45,320
Speaker 1: last presidential election, Okay, well that seems more plausible that

623
00:30:45,360 --> 00:30:48,560
Speaker 1: those people show back up again in another presidential election.

624
00:30:48,760 --> 00:30:51,480
Speaker 4: And guess what among those people? Trump does have the edge.

625
00:30:51,600 --> 00:30:54,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, bingo, And let's put this up there the traditional

626
00:30:54,520 --> 00:30:58,400
Speaker 2: voter demographic that that Biden voters and the Democratic Party

627
00:30:58,400 --> 00:31:01,800
Speaker 2: could always rely on black votvoters. Well, here you see

628
00:31:01,800 --> 00:31:05,200
Speaker 2: an oversample by USA today. Black voters are not thrilled

629
00:31:05,200 --> 00:31:08,160
Speaker 2: with Biden, but they dislike Trump more. If you dig

630
00:31:08,160 --> 00:31:10,640
Speaker 2: though into a little bit, they show quote how Biden

631
00:31:10,720 --> 00:31:13,720
Speaker 2: has lost ground not necessarily to Trump, but either to

632
00:31:14,000 --> 00:31:17,160
Speaker 2: non voting or to third party candidates, and quote in

633
00:31:17,160 --> 00:31:19,320
Speaker 2: states like Michigan and Pennsylvania where the race could be

634
00:31:19,400 --> 00:31:21,920
Speaker 2: decided by the slimmest of margin, the president can hardly

635
00:31:21,920 --> 00:31:24,800
Speaker 2: afford to lose any support from his most reliable base

636
00:31:25,160 --> 00:31:28,840
Speaker 2: as he faces a rematch with Trump, and the support

637
00:31:29,000 --> 00:31:31,320
Speaker 2: is not really as big as he previously thought.

638
00:31:31,520 --> 00:31:34,120
Speaker 3: It's actually in Pennsylvania, he's getting.

639
00:31:33,800 --> 00:31:37,120
Speaker 2: Some fifty six percent of the vote, but RFK Junior

640
00:31:37,160 --> 00:31:41,160
Speaker 2: and Cornell West are racking up almost fifteen percent combined,

641
00:31:41,360 --> 00:31:44,920
Speaker 2: and you've still got fourteen percent who are undecided. In Michigan,

642
00:31:44,960 --> 00:31:47,240
Speaker 2: for what I have in front of me, very similar numbers,

643
00:31:47,360 --> 00:31:51,040
Speaker 2: Joe Biden fifty four percent, Trump's got fifteen. But again

644
00:31:51,200 --> 00:31:54,080
Speaker 2: RFK Junior and Cornell West are combined percentage rough for

645
00:31:54,160 --> 00:31:57,320
Speaker 2: around fourteen points. And then undecided at fourteen as well.

646
00:31:57,400 --> 00:32:00,000
Speaker 2: So this is where the third party phenomenon could really

647
00:32:00,120 --> 00:32:03,760
Speaker 2: come back to Biden, because you cannot afford to lose

648
00:32:03,840 --> 00:32:07,160
Speaker 2: those votes in the slimmest of margins, especially in the

649
00:32:07,200 --> 00:32:11,520
Speaker 2: cities places like Detroit and Pennsylvania where really those cities,

650
00:32:11,520 --> 00:32:15,760
Speaker 2: those margins are. Their lack of performance in twenty sixteen,

651
00:32:16,000 --> 00:32:19,479
Speaker 2: that's what cost Hillary the election, both in Pennsylvania and

652
00:32:19,600 --> 00:32:22,920
Speaker 2: in Michigan and Wisconsin too. Actually, Milwaukee and many of

653
00:32:22,960 --> 00:32:26,240
Speaker 2: the urban core in Wisconsin, a lot of those voters

654
00:32:26,240 --> 00:32:27,840
Speaker 2: they just didn't come out to vote when they previously

655
00:32:27,840 --> 00:32:30,120
Speaker 2: had voted for Obama and boom, Trump wins the election.

656
00:32:30,720 --> 00:32:33,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, and this was the demographic too where we saw

657
00:32:33,960 --> 00:32:37,080
Speaker 1: weakness for Democrats in the midterms. It was kind of

658
00:32:37,640 --> 00:32:40,320
Speaker 1: covered up by the fact that they had out performance

659
00:32:40,360 --> 00:32:42,959
Speaker 1: in other areas and so we're able to, you know,

660
00:32:43,440 --> 00:32:46,160
Speaker 1: do much better then people thought they were going to do,

661
00:32:46,320 --> 00:32:50,480
Speaker 1: much better than historically the party in power does during midterms.

662
00:32:50,520 --> 00:32:53,040
Speaker 1: But this was a notable place of weakness. And if

663
00:32:53,080 --> 00:32:55,479
Speaker 1: you dig into the numbers of Okay, black voters who

664
00:32:55,640 --> 00:32:58,120
Speaker 1: backed Joe Biden last time, but they're not saying they're

665
00:32:58,120 --> 00:33:00,800
Speaker 1: going to back in this time, what are there are reasons?

666
00:33:01,160 --> 00:33:03,960
Speaker 1: And what they say is that more than a third

667
00:33:04,120 --> 00:33:07,520
Speaker 1: say they just haven't been impressed with his performance in office. Okay,

668
00:33:07,520 --> 00:33:10,040
Speaker 1: fair enough, so just sort of general like, I don't

669
00:33:10,040 --> 00:33:12,880
Speaker 1: feel like this is going all about well. Fourteen percent

670
00:33:13,200 --> 00:33:17,000
Speaker 1: said he's too old for the job. Thirteen percent said

671
00:33:17,160 --> 00:33:19,680
Speaker 1: that they are concerned about a support for Israel during

672
00:33:19,720 --> 00:33:21,840
Speaker 1: the war in Gaza. That was interesting to me that

673
00:33:21,840 --> 00:33:25,320
Speaker 1: that number was as high as the he's too old number,

674
00:33:25,720 --> 00:33:30,280
Speaker 1: And another eleven percent said that Biden hasn't kept his promises. So,

675
00:33:30,960 --> 00:33:33,240
Speaker 1: you know, in a lot of sense, you know, Charlemagne

676
00:33:33,320 --> 00:33:36,080
Speaker 1: is obviously you know, he's an entertainer and a prominent figure.

677
00:33:36,120 --> 00:33:38,520
Speaker 1: But I do feel like he's been representing a lot

678
00:33:38,560 --> 00:33:41,600
Speaker 1: of these feelings in the way that he's discussed the

679
00:33:41,600 --> 00:33:44,560
Speaker 1: Biden presidency and his unwillingness to come out and actively

680
00:33:44,640 --> 00:33:48,480
Speaker 1: endorse him this time around. Now he's indicated all but

681
00:33:48,560 --> 00:33:50,320
Speaker 1: come out and said, okay, he's going to vote for

682
00:33:50,400 --> 00:33:53,959
Speaker 1: Joe Biden again. But he feels that promises have been broken.

683
00:33:54,000 --> 00:33:56,720
Speaker 1: He feels that he was sort of you know, led

684
00:33:56,760 --> 00:33:59,000
Speaker 1: down the garden path last time around and can't put

685
00:33:59,080 --> 00:34:02,080
Speaker 1: himself out in the same way. And so you know,

686
00:34:02,160 --> 00:34:05,000
Speaker 1: the question for Democrats is number one, is RFK Junior

687
00:34:04,880 --> 00:34:07,040
Speaker 1: or Cornell West? Are they going to actually be on

688
00:34:07,120 --> 00:34:10,279
Speaker 1: the ballot? That's question number one and number two when

689
00:34:10,320 --> 00:34:12,640
Speaker 1: you come down to it and people realize, like, okay,

690
00:34:12,640 --> 00:34:13,960
Speaker 1: but at the end of the day, it's going to

691
00:34:13,960 --> 00:34:17,040
Speaker 1: be Biden or Trump. Does that bring people back around?

692
00:34:17,080 --> 00:34:18,919
Speaker 1: And there's a good chance that it will, we should say,

693
00:34:18,920 --> 00:34:23,040
Speaker 1: because that's typically what happens frequently with third party candidates

694
00:34:23,560 --> 00:34:26,120
Speaker 1: is when things get real and you know, people are

695
00:34:26,120 --> 00:34:29,600
Speaker 1: really focused in on this come September October, there is

696
00:34:29,640 --> 00:34:32,480
Speaker 1: a kind of you know, realization that there are only

697
00:34:32,560 --> 00:34:35,880
Speaker 1: really two viable choices, and support for third party candidates

698
00:34:35,920 --> 00:34:38,920
Speaker 1: falls off. That's historically what's happened, is that what happens

699
00:34:39,040 --> 00:34:39,720
Speaker 1: this time around?

700
00:34:39,960 --> 00:34:44,200
Speaker 2: Big question mark Yeah, will we will see, as they say,

701
00:34:44,239 --> 00:34:47,839
Speaker 2: but overall interesting signs and just more so about one

702
00:34:47,840 --> 00:34:49,600
Speaker 2: of the great lessons that we can all take away

703
00:34:49,600 --> 00:34:53,000
Speaker 2: from this is that politics is a living thing. It

704
00:34:53,080 --> 00:34:57,280
Speaker 2: doesn't just stay static. Things have changed dramatically in four years.

705
00:34:57,520 --> 00:35:01,279
Speaker 2: They have become unrecognizable in sixt years, and all those

706
00:35:01,320 --> 00:35:04,840
Speaker 2: people who wrote books about the laws of politics James

707
00:35:04,840 --> 00:35:08,239
Speaker 2: Carville forty more years, et cetera didn't work out. And

708
00:35:08,280 --> 00:35:10,480
Speaker 2: I think that's a great thing because it shows that

709
00:35:10,520 --> 00:35:13,200
Speaker 2: people are not static, that they do pay attention. They

710
00:35:13,320 --> 00:35:16,359
Speaker 2: change their mind and just because what they change their

711
00:35:16,360 --> 00:35:18,360
Speaker 2: main mind on may not be with a pundit class

712
00:35:18,360 --> 00:35:20,960
Speaker 2: wants them to, they certainly do pay attention in their

713
00:35:21,000 --> 00:35:23,400
Speaker 2: own way. So I have more faith actually in the

714
00:35:23,400 --> 00:35:26,520
Speaker 2: American people because they're always actually changing their mind and

715
00:35:26,560 --> 00:35:29,000
Speaker 2: looking at things and deciding things on the fly.

716
00:35:29,120 --> 00:35:30,959
Speaker 3: And I think that's good.

717
00:35:32,480 --> 00:35:35,120
Speaker 2: Let's move to France, where again people are certainly changing

718
00:35:35,320 --> 00:35:38,919
Speaker 2: their minds. There is a fantastic thread here. I want

719
00:35:38,920 --> 00:35:40,880
Speaker 2: to make sure I say this gentleman's name correctly. I

720
00:35:40,920 --> 00:35:45,200
Speaker 2: think it's Arnault bertrand should we go with that. He

721
00:35:45,320 --> 00:35:48,400
Speaker 2: has had some fantastic insights into French politics that we

722
00:35:48,440 --> 00:35:50,239
Speaker 2: wanted to put here on the show just because it

723
00:35:50,320 --> 00:35:53,760
Speaker 2: is possibly a harbinger of some major change that's happening

724
00:35:53,760 --> 00:35:56,279
Speaker 2: here in the US. But probably most importantly, it's just

725
00:35:56,360 --> 00:36:00,520
Speaker 2: that the European like neoliberal consensus, as we previously talked

726
00:36:00,560 --> 00:36:03,719
Speaker 2: about at the G seven, has never been more unpopular

727
00:36:03,880 --> 00:36:05,680
Speaker 2: actually with European voters.

728
00:36:05,680 --> 00:36:07,440
Speaker 3: So let's go ahead and put this up there on

729
00:36:07,480 --> 00:36:07,880
Speaker 3: the screen.

730
00:36:07,960 --> 00:36:11,680
Speaker 2: This is some analysis basically about the French election that

731
00:36:11,800 --> 00:36:14,960
Speaker 2: is upcoming, which was called by Emmanuel Macrone after the

732
00:36:15,000 --> 00:36:18,680
Speaker 2: shock win of Marine Le Penn's party in the European

733
00:36:18,719 --> 00:36:19,960
Speaker 2: parliamentary elections.

734
00:36:20,080 --> 00:36:21,640
Speaker 3: What Arnold Batrand says.

735
00:36:21,400 --> 00:36:23,480
Speaker 2: Here is that the left quote got their shit together

736
00:36:23,560 --> 00:36:26,960
Speaker 2: quote very fairly fast, almost immediately, announcing the creation of

737
00:36:27,000 --> 00:36:30,600
Speaker 2: a popular front that gathers all of the left wing parties.

738
00:36:30,680 --> 00:36:32,520
Speaker 2: Let's go to the next part, he says. It's on

739
00:36:32,600 --> 00:36:35,120
Speaker 2: the right that things have really started to go wild.

740
00:36:35,440 --> 00:36:38,160
Speaker 2: After the president of one of the major center right parties,

741
00:36:38,400 --> 00:36:41,880
Speaker 2: the Party of Jacques Chirac and of Nicholas Sarkozi, announced

742
00:36:41,880 --> 00:36:45,000
Speaker 2: that he would then do an alliance with Marine la

743
00:36:45,120 --> 00:36:45,760
Speaker 2: Penn's party.

744
00:36:45,920 --> 00:36:47,560
Speaker 3: Let's go to the next one, he says.

745
00:36:47,600 --> 00:36:51,319
Speaker 2: Almost immediately though, top officials in that party started saying

746
00:36:51,400 --> 00:36:54,279
Speaker 2: that person was speaking in their name only and he

747
00:36:54,360 --> 00:36:57,560
Speaker 2: needed to resign from the party's presidency. And now there

748
00:36:57,640 --> 00:37:00,760
Speaker 2: is some major infighting as to who who is managing

749
00:37:00,760 --> 00:37:03,279
Speaker 2: this party. Are they going to ally with Leapenn or not.

750
00:37:03,600 --> 00:37:07,360
Speaker 2: Let's go continue, he says. Meanwhile, Macrone is quote shooting

751
00:37:07,480 --> 00:37:11,239
Speaker 2: at this newly formed Popular Front, saying that those who

752
00:37:11,360 --> 00:37:14,440
Speaker 2: are joining it are quote anti Semites, so we're bringing

753
00:37:14,480 --> 00:37:17,520
Speaker 2: some of the Israel stuff into this. And because the

754
00:37:17,600 --> 00:37:21,359
Speaker 2: left wing party coalition quote campaigned for a lot of Palestinians,

755
00:37:21,400 --> 00:37:24,440
Speaker 2: so obviously that makes them and everyone with them anti Semitic.

756
00:37:24,760 --> 00:37:28,279
Speaker 2: So continue if we want here in some of this analysis,

757
00:37:28,920 --> 00:37:31,600
Speaker 2: if we look at the actual projections, it looks like

758
00:37:31,760 --> 00:37:34,440
Speaker 2: right now, and this is from the Financial Times, that

759
00:37:34,480 --> 00:37:37,839
Speaker 2: the far right block his words of Marine Lapen and

760
00:37:37,880 --> 00:37:40,000
Speaker 2: some of the leftovers of the right wing are in

761
00:37:40,040 --> 00:37:43,480
Speaker 2: the lead for three hundred and sixty two seats. The

762
00:37:43,600 --> 00:37:46,359
Speaker 2: left wing block, the so called Popular Front, is in

763
00:37:46,400 --> 00:37:50,440
Speaker 2: the lead with two hundred and eleven seats. Meanwhile Macrone's

764
00:37:50,480 --> 00:37:54,359
Speaker 2: party is in the lead in just three seats, and

765
00:37:54,480 --> 00:37:57,560
Speaker 2: none of these three seats are even in France, all

766
00:37:57,600 --> 00:38:00,960
Speaker 2: of them are seats for French people. And then that

767
00:38:01,080 --> 00:38:03,719
Speaker 2: old center right party is in the lead for just one.

768
00:38:03,760 --> 00:38:06,080
Speaker 2: So remember, as he said, the election is two rounds.

769
00:38:06,239 --> 00:38:08,040
Speaker 2: The projections for the second round or the left and

770
00:38:08,080 --> 00:38:09,919
Speaker 2: the far right would battle it out for the five

771
00:38:10,000 --> 00:38:12,520
Speaker 2: hundred and thirty six seeds, but that the Macron alliance

772
00:38:12,560 --> 00:38:15,640
Speaker 2: would only make the runoff in some forty one seats.

773
00:38:15,680 --> 00:38:19,000
Speaker 2: So basically it quote looks like they will essentially destroy

774
00:38:19,160 --> 00:38:22,319
Speaker 2: Macronism as a political force in France. Either that is

775
00:38:22,320 --> 00:38:25,480
Speaker 2: somehow ninety chess that no one understands, or his dissolution

776
00:38:25,560 --> 00:38:27,720
Speaker 2: of the French Parliament is one of the stupidest moves

777
00:38:27,760 --> 00:38:29,600
Speaker 2: ever by a French president.

778
00:38:29,880 --> 00:38:32,760
Speaker 4: Is it ninety chess or is it hungry hungry hippos.

779
00:38:32,880 --> 00:38:36,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm thinking hungry hungry hipo probably dumber than hungry

780
00:38:36,640 --> 00:38:39,200
Speaker 2: hungry ht BO. I mean, look, I mean, I think

781
00:38:39,200 --> 00:38:41,719
Speaker 2: it's fascinating because I don't again, I don't really know

782
00:38:41,760 --> 00:38:43,640
Speaker 2: why he's doing this at all. What we do know

783
00:38:43,719 --> 00:38:46,759
Speaker 2: here is that the Neo Lib consensus in France, which

784
00:38:47,040 --> 00:38:49,760
Speaker 2: leading indicator I would say for the rest of the continent,

785
00:38:49,880 --> 00:38:52,920
Speaker 2: it's dead. It's either left or right, and actually like

786
00:38:53,040 --> 00:38:55,440
Speaker 2: left or right in terms of who is going to

787
00:38:55,440 --> 00:38:58,360
Speaker 2: win here and La Penn and her party, it's looking

788
00:38:58,520 --> 00:39:03,000
Speaker 2: like a historic for them d act's release genuinely take power,

789
00:39:03,239 --> 00:39:05,600
Speaker 2: and this is ahead of the twenty twenty seven election,

790
00:39:05,920 --> 00:39:09,080
Speaker 2: where if they do so, I mean, this destroys Emmanuel

791
00:39:09,120 --> 00:39:13,200
Speaker 2: Macron his entire legacy as the president of France, and

792
00:39:13,280 --> 00:39:16,479
Speaker 2: his real legacy would almost be like Obama ushering in

793
00:39:16,800 --> 00:39:19,360
Speaker 2: this new era as opposed to actually doing anything himself.

794
00:39:20,320 --> 00:39:23,719
Speaker 1: It is remarkable. I think he was betting on, which

795
00:39:23,760 --> 00:39:27,920
Speaker 1: is usually a safe bet, left wing dysfunction. Yes, he

796
00:39:28,120 --> 00:39:30,359
Speaker 1: was thinking that the lefties wouldn't be able to get

797
00:39:30,360 --> 00:39:33,399
Speaker 1: their shit together, wouldn't form this popular front, which they

798
00:39:33,400 --> 00:39:36,320
Speaker 1: did very quickly and were able to, you know, announce

799
00:39:36,320 --> 00:39:40,160
Speaker 1: cannons in all of these seats, an incredible feat of

800
00:39:40,320 --> 00:39:43,160
Speaker 1: organizational muscle from you know, a group of individuals who

801
00:39:43,160 --> 00:39:45,959
Speaker 1: are not really known for such and so he thought

802
00:39:46,000 --> 00:39:49,359
Speaker 1: they would remain splintered and then he would be able

803
00:39:49,440 --> 00:39:53,480
Speaker 1: to bet on you know what is he hopes still

804
00:39:53,640 --> 00:39:57,839
Speaker 1: a majority revulsion towards the far right in La Penn

805
00:39:58,480 --> 00:40:01,120
Speaker 1: and be able to convince peeople like the lesser of

806
00:40:01,120 --> 00:40:06,000
Speaker 1: two Evils kind of a vote once again and be able.

807
00:40:05,760 --> 00:40:07,200
Speaker 4: To potentially pick up seats.

808
00:40:07,719 --> 00:40:10,480
Speaker 1: Instead, they did get their act together, and so as

809
00:40:10,560 --> 00:40:12,319
Speaker 1: you were laying out, you know what will happen is

810
00:40:12,320 --> 00:40:14,840
Speaker 1: you'll have an initial vote in all of these districts

811
00:40:14,880 --> 00:40:17,440
Speaker 1: and then the top two vote getting parties then built

812
00:40:17,440 --> 00:40:19,239
Speaker 1: head to the runoff. So if you're not in the

813
00:40:19,239 --> 00:40:20,879
Speaker 1: top two, that's it.

814
00:40:21,160 --> 00:40:24,080
Speaker 4: Game over. They're leading in three seats.

815
00:40:25,040 --> 00:40:28,279
Speaker 1: Their only potentially making it's the runoff in right now

816
00:40:28,360 --> 00:40:30,160
Speaker 1: projected some forty seats.

817
00:40:30,680 --> 00:40:32,360
Speaker 4: So you're done.

818
00:40:32,520 --> 00:40:35,000
Speaker 1: Now you have the left and the right battling it

819
00:40:35,040 --> 00:40:38,000
Speaker 1: out for the future. And listen, I don't want to

820
00:40:38,040 --> 00:40:40,040
Speaker 1: read too much into it, but I think when you

821
00:40:40,120 --> 00:40:43,239
Speaker 1: look here and you look at the negative approval ratings

822
00:40:43,280 --> 00:40:45,600
Speaker 1: for you know, G seven leaders, When you look at

823
00:40:45,680 --> 00:40:48,799
Speaker 1: Joe Biden and you know the disgust for him and

824
00:40:48,880 --> 00:40:51,560
Speaker 1: his the sense that the economy is going backwards and

825
00:40:51,600 --> 00:40:53,759
Speaker 1: the country's on the wrong track, which has really been

826
00:40:54,000 --> 00:40:56,399
Speaker 1: a sentiment that's been picking up and picking up over

827
00:40:56,440 --> 00:41:01,000
Speaker 1: the years. It's just pretty clear that for most people

828
00:41:01,280 --> 00:41:04,320
Speaker 1: in these countries they feel, not that they would articulate

829
00:41:04,360 --> 00:41:07,279
Speaker 1: it this way, but they feel that the neoliberal consensus

830
00:41:07,320 --> 00:41:10,040
Speaker 1: that has reigned for you know, forty plus years, really

831
00:41:10,080 --> 00:41:12,879
Speaker 1: started under Jimmy Carter and then sort of solidified under

832
00:41:12,960 --> 00:41:16,359
Speaker 1: Ronald Reagan and then Bill Clinton, it has failed them.

833
00:41:16,800 --> 00:41:19,440
Speaker 1: It has failed to deliver secure economic security for them.

834
00:41:19,480 --> 00:41:22,880
Speaker 1: It has failed to deliver higher wages. It is increasingly

835
00:41:22,920 --> 00:41:25,439
Speaker 1: funneled more and more and more wealth to the very

836
00:41:25,520 --> 00:41:28,839
Speaker 1: top it has not had any significant answers for you know,

837
00:41:28,920 --> 00:41:33,160
Speaker 1: various societal issues, and so they're they're done with it.

838
00:41:33,800 --> 00:41:36,040
Speaker 1: I also think it's really interesting in the context of

839
00:41:36,080 --> 00:41:38,359
Speaker 1: macrona I brought this up before, but again has some

840
00:41:38,560 --> 00:41:41,040
Speaker 1: you know, potential implications for Joe Biden. Although you don't

841
00:41:41,040 --> 00:41:42,759
Speaker 1: want to read too much into these things because they

842
00:41:42,760 --> 00:41:45,360
Speaker 1: have such a different political system than we do. But

843
00:41:45,440 --> 00:41:48,719
Speaker 1: Macron did try to He realized immigration was a big

844
00:41:48,760 --> 00:41:51,359
Speaker 1: problem for him. He tried to do more hardline things.

845
00:41:51,360 --> 00:41:53,719
Speaker 1: They were so significant that you know, Lapen was saying, hey,

846
00:41:53,760 --> 00:41:56,760
Speaker 1: this is an ideological win for me. Macron's own party

847
00:41:57,000 --> 00:41:59,320
Speaker 1: was rejecting it and wouldn't vote for it, et cetera.

848
00:41:59,840 --> 00:42:03,759
Speaker 1: And surprise, surprise, Like if you're an immigration hardliner, that

849
00:42:03,840 --> 00:42:06,000
Speaker 1: wasn't going to enoy, Like that wasn't going to make

850
00:42:06,040 --> 00:42:08,719
Speaker 1: you fall in love with Emmanuel Macron. And same in

851
00:42:08,760 --> 00:42:11,120
Speaker 1: the US as Biden tries to signal this, you know,

852
00:42:11,200 --> 00:42:14,080
Speaker 1: let me be more hardline on immigration shift, you're not

853
00:42:14,120 --> 00:42:17,120
Speaker 1: gonna win over Trump supporters, Like if your immigration is

854
00:42:17,120 --> 00:42:19,760
Speaker 1: your top issue, you're still not voting for Joe Biden.

855
00:42:20,200 --> 00:42:22,839
Speaker 1: So that ploy really hasn't worked for mcron. It hasn't

856
00:42:22,880 --> 00:42:24,560
Speaker 1: worked for any of the European leaders, and I don't

857
00:42:24,600 --> 00:42:26,360
Speaker 1: think it's going to work for Joe Biden either.

858
00:42:26,719 --> 00:42:28,040
Speaker 3: It's complicated. I agree.

859
00:42:28,480 --> 00:42:30,839
Speaker 2: In terms of the politics there also, I would say

860
00:42:30,840 --> 00:42:33,279
Speaker 2: the polling here is so radically shifting. We should cover

861
00:42:33,320 --> 00:42:35,440
Speaker 2: this tomorrow. I've been sending some stuff. I'll save some

862
00:42:35,480 --> 00:42:37,560
Speaker 2: of my comments on that. Let's put this up there

863
00:42:37,920 --> 00:42:40,760
Speaker 2: on the screen because this highlights exactly what you're talking about.

864
00:42:41,080 --> 00:42:44,920
Speaker 2: Look here at the approval ratings for the G seven leaders.

865
00:42:44,960 --> 00:42:48,680
Speaker 2: So you've got olof Schaltz minus fifty one in Germany,

866
00:42:48,880 --> 00:42:52,759
Speaker 2: Trudeau minus thirty eight in Canada, minus thirty one for

867
00:42:52,960 --> 00:42:56,239
Speaker 2: Macron in France, minus ten for Maloney in Italy. She

868
00:42:56,400 --> 00:42:58,880
Speaker 2: somehow is the most popular lady on the entire stage.

869
00:42:59,000 --> 00:43:02,520
Speaker 2: Bidenus eight eighteen point five for his approval rating. Kashida

870
00:43:02,640 --> 00:43:04,440
Speaker 2: in Japan is at minus forty.

871
00:43:04,480 --> 00:43:06,279
Speaker 3: I don't know what's going on in Japan. I need

872
00:43:06,280 --> 00:43:07,160
Speaker 3: to look into that more.

873
00:43:07,360 --> 00:43:12,440
Speaker 2: And then Rischie Sunak takes the cake minus fifty four. So,

874
00:43:13,160 --> 00:43:16,000
Speaker 2: like you said, each of these are individual leaders. Each

875
00:43:16,040 --> 00:43:19,080
Speaker 2: of these have individual circumstances, but we are more connected

876
00:43:19,120 --> 00:43:21,319
Speaker 2: than at any time before. And you know, one of the

877
00:43:21,320 --> 00:43:24,200
Speaker 2: things about globalization is that all of our economies look

878
00:43:24,280 --> 00:43:26,520
Speaker 2: more similar today than they ever did in the past.

879
00:43:26,600 --> 00:43:29,400
Speaker 2: So what we can generally surmise across all of these

880
00:43:29,520 --> 00:43:32,799
Speaker 2: is that you have a deceleration of wealth, you know,

881
00:43:32,880 --> 00:43:36,120
Speaker 2: for the bottom tranch, or really the bottom half of

882
00:43:36,200 --> 00:43:39,960
Speaker 2: a lot of these societies, safety sets, safety social nets

883
00:43:40,080 --> 00:43:44,040
Speaker 2: or not. In general, economic opportunity is being divided. You

884
00:43:44,080 --> 00:43:47,600
Speaker 2: see higher inflation against all all of these economies, and

885
00:43:47,680 --> 00:43:51,160
Speaker 2: in each one there is a asking of the new generation,

886
00:43:51,280 --> 00:43:54,120
Speaker 2: which is flirting with left and right politics which have

887
00:43:54,200 --> 00:43:57,360
Speaker 2: not been seen in any of these countries in decades.

888
00:43:57,400 --> 00:44:00,239
Speaker 2: You see this with the rise of a major right

889
00:44:00,239 --> 00:44:05,000
Speaker 2: wing coalition in Japan. You see the AfD doing incredibly

890
00:44:05,000 --> 00:44:08,520
Speaker 2: well in Germany, I believe, in Canada and in France

891
00:44:08,600 --> 00:44:10,360
Speaker 2: you're seeing some similar dynamics.

892
00:44:10,400 --> 00:44:10,960
Speaker 3: And then Italy.

893
00:44:11,000 --> 00:44:14,480
Speaker 2: Of course, Maloney herself was heralded allegedly as some like

894
00:44:14,600 --> 00:44:18,200
Speaker 2: right wing personnel, though she's governed very differently while she's

895
00:44:18,239 --> 00:44:21,000
Speaker 2: in office, but at the very least in every instance,

896
00:44:21,160 --> 00:44:23,439
Speaker 2: you know, if we're seeing a flirting with different types

897
00:44:23,440 --> 00:44:26,040
Speaker 2: of politics, which we're unheard of really in the last

898
00:44:26,120 --> 00:44:28,920
Speaker 2: forty five years or so, which means some sort of

899
00:44:28,960 --> 00:44:33,480
Speaker 2: new quote unquote world order. No conspiracy is likely inevitable

900
00:44:33,719 --> 00:44:36,160
Speaker 2: if we are to hue two democracy. I mean, let's

901
00:44:36,160 --> 00:44:38,520
Speaker 2: be said, honest, though we could go in the other direction.

902
00:44:38,680 --> 00:44:41,280
Speaker 2: Just because they're unpopular doesn't mean that they couldn't become

903
00:44:41,360 --> 00:44:44,480
Speaker 2: a more dictatorial and controlling and censorship ridden to try

904
00:44:44,520 --> 00:44:47,480
Speaker 2: and control the current world order that we are in.

905
00:44:47,640 --> 00:44:50,000
Speaker 2: I think that's the more likely path because all of

906
00:44:50,040 --> 00:44:54,280
Speaker 2: them have such a religious devotion, for example, to Ukraine.

907
00:44:54,280 --> 00:44:57,160
Speaker 2: I mean, this entire some is basically just being a

908
00:44:57,239 --> 00:44:59,759
Speaker 2: slave to Ukraine and being like, oh, here's fifty billion

909
00:44:59,800 --> 00:45:02,879
Speaker 2: more dollars and we're with you until the very end,

910
00:45:02,960 --> 00:45:06,239
Speaker 2: and let's endorse your BS peace conference and all of

911
00:45:06,280 --> 00:45:09,279
Speaker 2: this other stuff. But again, they're doing so in a

912
00:45:09,400 --> 00:45:13,240
Speaker 2: very unpopular manner if you look at the feedback from

913
00:45:13,360 --> 00:45:17,319
Speaker 2: all of the actual democracies for what's happening. So that's

914
00:45:17,320 --> 00:45:19,680
Speaker 2: really I think the only way that we can connect,

915
00:45:19,920 --> 00:45:22,360
Speaker 2: and why I think the France example is so important

916
00:45:22,680 --> 00:45:24,920
Speaker 2: is because it really is part of a global phenomenon

917
00:45:25,120 --> 00:45:28,360
Speaker 2: just previously, like we saw with Brexit last time in

918
00:45:28,400 --> 00:45:29,240
Speaker 2: twenty fifteen.

919
00:45:29,800 --> 00:45:31,879
Speaker 1: Yeah, and I think it's important to say too, because

920
00:45:31,960 --> 00:45:34,160
Speaker 1: you could look at those numbers and go, oh, well,

921
00:45:34,200 --> 00:45:36,120
Speaker 1: I mean, first of all, Joe Biden's doven better than

922
00:45:36,160 --> 00:45:38,359
Speaker 1: a lot of these people. Second of all, you can say, oh, well,

923
00:45:38,360 --> 00:45:40,600
Speaker 1: they're just like a victim of circumstance because they had

924
00:45:40,640 --> 00:45:43,920
Speaker 1: COVID and now you've got inflation as a result of COVID,

925
00:45:44,040 --> 00:45:46,160
Speaker 1: and so people are very upset about that, and they're

926
00:45:46,160 --> 00:45:48,600
Speaker 1: blaming their leaders, even though you know, there's a consistent

927
00:45:48,640 --> 00:45:53,320
Speaker 1: theme across the countries. So it's not all the leader's fault.

928
00:45:53,560 --> 00:45:57,400
Speaker 1: But if we look then at the numbers for AMLO

929
00:45:57,840 --> 00:46:01,440
Speaker 1: in Mexico, where they also struggled with, you know, inflation

930
00:46:01,920 --> 00:46:05,279
Speaker 1: and GDP growth isn't astronomical though there is a lot

931
00:46:05,320 --> 00:46:08,279
Speaker 1: of you know, there's increasing as there's been more moved

932
00:46:08,280 --> 00:46:10,080
Speaker 1: towards near shoring and away from China. There is a

933
00:46:10,120 --> 00:46:12,759
Speaker 1: lot of economic possibility for Mexico right now that I

934
00:46:12,800 --> 00:46:15,719
Speaker 1: think people are there are very excited about. But you

935
00:46:15,840 --> 00:46:20,440
Speaker 1: had a different economic program that actually delivered wage increases,

936
00:46:20,760 --> 00:46:27,320
Speaker 1: significant wage increases beyond notably beyond inflation for average Mexican workers.

937
00:46:27,920 --> 00:46:31,440
Speaker 1: And so because of that, in spite of the difficult

938
00:46:31,880 --> 00:46:35,800
Speaker 1: global circumstances. You know, Amlo one of the most popular

939
00:46:35,920 --> 00:46:39,560
Speaker 1: leaders in the entire world. So it's not that, you know,

940
00:46:39,600 --> 00:46:42,239
Speaker 1: they're just a victim of fate and circumstance and there

941
00:46:42,320 --> 00:46:45,120
Speaker 1: was absolutely nothing that they can do. People have rightly

942
00:46:45,200 --> 00:46:47,360
Speaker 1: judged that there were other pathways open to them and

943
00:46:47,400 --> 00:46:49,480
Speaker 1: they didn't take it, and that they aren't focused on

944
00:46:49,520 --> 00:46:52,799
Speaker 1: delivering for their lives. Instead, they're focused on, you know,

945
00:46:53,080 --> 00:46:56,520
Speaker 1: backing Israel and they're endless assault against Gaza and backing

946
00:46:56,920 --> 00:46:59,960
Speaker 1: Ukraine in what has become, you know, a hopeless situation,

947
00:47:00,480 --> 00:47:04,480
Speaker 1: rather than improving the lives of their own tax paying citizens. So,

948
00:47:04,800 --> 00:47:06,960
Speaker 1: you know, I think some of those themes are probably

949
00:47:07,320 --> 00:47:09,000
Speaker 1: very consistent across those countries.

950
00:47:09,160 --> 00:47:10,160
Speaker 3: Well, there's a couple lessons.

951
00:47:10,160 --> 00:47:12,200
Speaker 2: So, like I just said, I have the most popular

952
00:47:12,280 --> 00:47:14,480
Speaker 2: leaders in front of me. Some of the one of

953
00:47:14,520 --> 00:47:18,279
Speaker 2: these surveys is actually after the Indian election, even though

954
00:47:18,440 --> 00:47:22,040
Speaker 2: India Mody suffered a setback, he and Amlo are the

955
00:47:22,080 --> 00:47:24,320
Speaker 2: two most popular leaders in the world.

956
00:47:24,560 --> 00:47:26,920
Speaker 3: What can you at least say about those two leaders.

957
00:47:27,200 --> 00:47:30,440
Speaker 2: Neither would ever be accused of being quote unquote neoliberal,

958
00:47:30,520 --> 00:47:35,840
Speaker 2: and in fact have explicitly rejected over the implicit neoliberal consensus.

959
00:47:35,840 --> 00:47:38,520
Speaker 2: So in India's case, you have the Congress Party, this

960
00:47:38,719 --> 00:47:42,200
Speaker 2: was the neoliberal party being powerful decades, very similar actually

961
00:47:42,239 --> 00:47:44,960
Speaker 2: to Mexico, and they're part of ruling coalition.

962
00:47:45,120 --> 00:47:47,160
Speaker 3: Mody comes in and basically sweeps it.

963
00:47:47,200 --> 00:47:50,520
Speaker 2: Off the table, turns it almost into an irrelevant political

964
00:47:50,560 --> 00:47:54,240
Speaker 2: force whose only victory is winning a few more seats

965
00:47:54,280 --> 00:47:57,560
Speaker 2: but still not being in power. Amlo very similar basically

966
00:47:57,640 --> 00:48:00,760
Speaker 2: just delivered this huge mandate for his party in Mexico

967
00:48:01,040 --> 00:48:04,280
Speaker 2: despite I mean a lot of troubling coalition, troubling problems,

968
00:48:04,320 --> 00:48:07,320
Speaker 2: but at the very least in Mexico, the ruling previously

969
00:48:07,400 --> 00:48:10,080
Speaker 2: ruling center right party, they're not in the discussion as

970
00:48:10,160 --> 00:48:13,279
Speaker 2: part of the actual solution. The voters don't even count

971
00:48:13,320 --> 00:48:15,360
Speaker 2: them in their minds. So I think in both of

972
00:48:15,360 --> 00:48:17,800
Speaker 2: those cases we could see that if you are willing

973
00:48:17,840 --> 00:48:21,280
Speaker 2: to move in that direction, you can reape massive political

974
00:48:21,320 --> 00:48:24,359
Speaker 2: rewards in either of those However, you know, the g

975
00:48:24,480 --> 00:48:27,160
Speaker 2: seven these economies, like I said, these are the most

976
00:48:27,200 --> 00:48:30,200
Speaker 2: highly developed economies in the world in a certain sense,

977
00:48:30,239 --> 00:48:32,760
Speaker 2: like the elites of all of those countries do control

978
00:48:32,800 --> 00:48:35,879
Speaker 2: things at a much higher level, whereas in a developing nation,

979
00:48:35,960 --> 00:48:37,640
Speaker 2: I think, for some reason.

980
00:48:37,680 --> 00:48:38,000
Speaker 3: You know, you.

981
00:48:38,320 --> 00:48:40,440
Speaker 2: Can both have like lots of oligarchy, but you can

982
00:48:40,480 --> 00:48:43,400
Speaker 2: have some sort of democratic revolt, and institutions are not

983
00:48:43,480 --> 00:48:46,239
Speaker 2: nearly as entrench and are probably easier to take on

984
00:48:47,000 --> 00:48:49,760
Speaker 2: in that certain scenario. So, I mean, it's a fascinating

985
00:48:49,800 --> 00:48:52,439
Speaker 2: discussion honestly, Like we said about the whole new world

986
00:48:52,560 --> 00:48:55,000
Speaker 2: order and what that may look like as opposed to

987
00:48:55,440 --> 00:48:57,919
Speaker 2: we really have two options like going down the path

988
00:48:57,920 --> 00:49:01,239
Speaker 2: of democracy or more control, more censorship.

989
00:49:01,520 --> 00:49:04,200
Speaker 3: They'll probably try for the former. The only question is

990
00:49:04,200 --> 00:49:04,919
Speaker 3: actually going to work.

991
00:49:05,440 --> 00:49:07,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, and of course to bring it back to the US,

992
00:49:08,480 --> 00:49:10,920
Speaker 1: even as we have a number of third party candidates

993
00:49:11,000 --> 00:49:13,080
Speaker 1: on the ballot, because of the nature of our system,

994
00:49:13,520 --> 00:49:17,640
Speaker 1: we don't really have a non neoliberal option. We have

995
00:49:17,920 --> 00:49:20,680
Speaker 1: Joe Biden and Donald Trump. Donald Trump, Matt Stiller did

996
00:49:20,680 --> 00:49:22,319
Speaker 1: a phenomenal piece. We're actually going to try to have

997
00:49:22,400 --> 00:49:24,000
Speaker 1: him on the show to talk about it. About the

998
00:49:24,040 --> 00:49:27,000
Speaker 1: way Trump doesn't even talk about going after business anymore.

999
00:49:27,080 --> 00:49:28,000
Speaker 4: It doesn't even pretend.

1000
00:49:28,520 --> 00:49:32,239
Speaker 1: Instead he's in these fundraising rooms promising them everything that

1001
00:49:32,280 --> 00:49:34,920
Speaker 1: they could possibly want. And we know, of course when

1002
00:49:34,960 --> 00:49:37,480
Speaker 1: he was in office, well he did do some things,

1003
00:49:37,600 --> 00:49:41,759
Speaker 1: especially vias of v China, Visa ve renegotiating NAFTA that

1004
00:49:41,840 --> 00:49:45,640
Speaker 1: were different in a genuine break from the past neoliberal consensus.

1005
00:49:46,000 --> 00:49:50,399
Speaker 1: The primary accomplishment was the Tax Cut Jobs Act, which

1006
00:49:50,760 --> 00:49:54,640
Speaker 1: was sitting on the shelf from the neoliberal Reaganite type

1007
00:49:54,640 --> 00:49:57,120
Speaker 1: of system. That's one of his primary promises moving forward

1008
00:49:57,200 --> 00:49:59,600
Speaker 1: is We're going to make sure we continue those tax cuts,

1009
00:50:00,080 --> 00:50:01,120
Speaker 1: so you really.

1010
00:50:00,840 --> 00:50:02,960
Speaker 4: Don't have another option.

1011
00:50:03,440 --> 00:50:08,200
Speaker 1: Although stylistically Trump gives the vibes of being a real

1012
00:50:08,320 --> 00:50:11,520
Speaker 1: threat to the system even as he's promising them like no, no, no,

1013
00:50:11,560 --> 00:50:13,400
Speaker 1: I'm going to do what you want, and billionaires are

1014
00:50:13,440 --> 00:50:16,040
Speaker 1: responding to that. I mean, this is another way going

1015
00:50:16,040 --> 00:50:18,839
Speaker 1: back to how the coalitions are shifting. You know, under

1016
00:50:18,880 --> 00:50:23,000
Speaker 1: Obama and Hillary and Biden. Last time around, Wall Street

1017
00:50:23,000 --> 00:50:26,879
Speaker 1: really started going for Democrats. They're going back to Republicans.

1018
00:50:27,000 --> 00:50:29,080
Speaker 1: Now they're going back to backing Trump. They feel very

1019
00:50:29,080 --> 00:50:31,520
Speaker 1: comfortable with him because they don't like under Biden the

1020
00:50:31,920 --> 00:50:37,200
Speaker 1: antitrust move and the more pro labor postures. So in

1021
00:50:37,239 --> 00:50:40,280
Speaker 1: any case, that's part of what makes our system unique

1022
00:50:40,320 --> 00:50:42,359
Speaker 1: and in my opinion, uniquely bad, is that we don't

1023
00:50:42,400 --> 00:50:44,600
Speaker 1: really have any options beyond the status quo.

1024
00:50:44,800 --> 00:50:47,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, certainly, especially in the modern era didn't always used

1025
00:50:47,680 --> 00:50:49,600
Speaker 2: to be like this, though, at least back in eighteen

1026
00:50:49,640 --> 00:50:51,400
Speaker 2: hundreds and early ninety hundreds,