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Speaker 1: Hey there, everyone, and welcome back to another episode of

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Speaker 1: the Betting Pros NFL Podcast, brought to you by play MGM.

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Speaker 1: I'm your host, Dan Harris. You can find me on

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Speaker 1: Twitter at Dan Harris Ady. Today we're going to be

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Speaker 1: breaking down some of our favorite team futures bets, such

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Speaker 1: as the AFC and NFC champ, the Super Bowl winner,

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Speaker 1: as well as some playoff teams and division winners that

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Speaker 1: we like at their current odds. And with me to

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Speaker 1: break it all down is Alex Kaloj, sports betting writer

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Speaker 1: for The Score and a swell fellow if I do

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Speaker 1: say so myself. You can find him on Twitter at

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Speaker 1: Alex Kaloj. And I'm going to spell that for you

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Speaker 1: because his last name is usually one of the final

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Speaker 1: words on the National Spelling Bee. It's at Alex ko

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Speaker 1: l O d z I e J. Did I spell

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Speaker 1: that right, Alex?

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Speaker 2: You did? Yes? Honestly the Spelling Bee. That's such a

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Speaker 2: good little wrinkle to throw in there. I've never heard

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Speaker 2: that before.

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Speaker 1: It Has a single teacher ever gotten your name right?

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Speaker 1: That's my real question, ask you.

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Speaker 2: No, it's been It's been close, and I'm a pretty

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Speaker 2: harsh grader when it comes to that, you got to

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Speaker 2: get it spot on. I'm not going to give you

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Speaker 2: any leniency when it comes to it. So there have

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Speaker 2: been people who have been close, but no cigar on that.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, man, it's it's it's been a tough, tough

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Speaker 2: decade and a half of school trying to get teachers

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Speaker 2: to get my last name right. For sure.

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Speaker 1: Honestly, I prefer because my last name is, you know, Harris.

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Speaker 1: They're so easy to pronounce that. You know, when I

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Speaker 1: was in college, everybody, like the teachers would just when

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Speaker 1: they were looking for someone to call on, they'd have

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Speaker 1: my name and they'd be like, yeah, I can pronounce

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Speaker 1: that one. I bet they probably avoided you like the

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Speaker 1: plagu because they were like, I don't I don't even know.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, it was it was all mostly just Alex K.

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Speaker 2: And then we just kind of left it at that,

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Speaker 2: and so I was, first, we can sign with that.

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Speaker 1: I like it all right? Well koaloj I got it.

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Speaker 1: I nailed it on the first try. I definitely didn't

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Speaker 1: ask you five times before we started recording how to

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Speaker 1: pronounce it, so I didn't mess it up. So everybody

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Speaker 1: just knows that that's exactly what happened. So look, before

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Speaker 1: we get into all our team futures bets, look, I

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Speaker 1: like to hear about people's journeys into how they got

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Speaker 1: sports betting, because, frankly, I think throughout my career, both

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Speaker 1: in fantasy and sports betting, the question that I get

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Speaker 1: asked the most by people is how did you get

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Speaker 1: into this even from the start? So, Alex, how did

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Speaker 1: you get into this even from the start?

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Speaker 2: Sure? Yeah, So back in high school when I was

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Speaker 2: about a freshman or sophomore fourteen or fifteen years old,

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Speaker 2: grew up in a sports household, so we always had

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Speaker 2: sports on and it was just one of those things where,

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Speaker 2: you know, I started to learn about it from one

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Speaker 2: of my family members, And mind you, we had always

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Speaker 2: done Super Bowl pools and squares, so I kind of

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Speaker 2: understood that concept of it, but I didn't really understand spreads,

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Speaker 2: didn't understand totals, and I had a family member I

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Speaker 2: asked me if I wanted to bet with him on

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Speaker 2: an LSU Alabama game on a nice October Saturday in

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Speaker 2: the fall, and had jumped on and won my first

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Speaker 2: five dollars bet on the LSU Alabama over forty eight,

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Speaker 2: and from then on. It was just kind of basically

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Speaker 2: just kind of injected into my vein, you know. I mean,

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Speaker 2: I think the next day I had NFL action too,

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Speaker 2: and I like.

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Speaker 1: How old are you? By the way, at this point,

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Speaker 1: how old are you like or what?

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Speaker 2: At this point, I'm fourteen, And you know, instead of

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Speaker 2: you know, going out to hang out with my friends

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Speaker 2: after football practice, I was getting home and going on

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Speaker 2: covers dot com and looking at the matchups for the day.

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Speaker 2: And it's funny because I'm the third boy in my family.

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Speaker 2: I have two older brothers, and we all came out

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Speaker 2: of a very prestigious high school playing football, And you know,

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Speaker 2: it was one of those things where I was working

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Speaker 2: towards getting a scholarship, but I just love sports betting

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Speaker 2: and it seemed to distract me from a lot of

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Speaker 2: daily practices and stuff that I'm probably not proud to

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Speaker 2: say in hindsight. But at the same time, looking at

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Speaker 2: how I got to where I am now, it was

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Speaker 2: probably worth it because I ended up playing NAI football

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Speaker 2: for a year and a half and then got out

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Speaker 2: of there. But yeah, it was just one of those

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Speaker 2: things where I'd always grew up. I'd always grown up

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Speaker 2: a sports fan. And then getting into that just kind

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Speaker 2: of opened up my mind a little bit too, to

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Speaker 2: a new industry. And you know, I'd always been motivated

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Speaker 2: to want to do something in the sports field, and

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Speaker 2: after studying sports management in college, I kind of, you know,

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Speaker 2: left that and got into more numbers. And it's funny

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Speaker 2: because I'm not exactly a numbers guy. I always hated

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Speaker 2: math and kind of took an approach to writing and

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Speaker 2: kind of always had the betting background. So after a

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Speaker 2: couple of stints as a reporter and doing some columns

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Speaker 2: and stuff, I found a job with The Score as

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Speaker 2: their main betting writer, and then the rest is kind

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Speaker 2: of history.

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Speaker 1: So yeah, so what do you do over at the

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Speaker 1: Score exactly? I mean are you are you focusing on

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Speaker 1: futures in particular, or do you do the wide range

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Speaker 1: of things or what?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, we do a wide range of basically everything. We

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Speaker 2: cover everything from UFC to NFL to MLB, pretty much

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Speaker 2: any sport under the sun. And what's great about it is,

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Speaker 2: you know, you work for a prominent sports media site

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Speaker 2: and we do a lot of very general stuff and

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Speaker 2: you know, you'll you'll find we do a lot of

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Speaker 2: March mandw stuff, stuff future stuff. But there is a

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Speaker 2: lot of freedom and a lot of creativity that we have,

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Speaker 2: and luckily I've been fortunate enough to have bosses and

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Speaker 2: supervisors who I can talk to and say, hey, you know,

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Speaker 2: this is you know, the prominent storyline. But I also

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Speaker 2: have something that I like to write about on one

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Speaker 2: of the smaller schools because I think it'd be a

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Speaker 2: cool betting angle. So we really do. I know it

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Speaker 2: sounds cliche, but we really do a lot and pretty

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Speaker 2: much everything under the sun, from you know, marquee matchups

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Speaker 2: to stuff that betters might not think of. And it's

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Speaker 2: always fun to do research pieces and kind of bring

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Speaker 2: new things to light. And I really enjoyed that aspect

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Speaker 2: of it, especially being able to cover a lot of

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Speaker 2: different markets.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and as your focus generally football, do you cover

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Speaker 1: pretty much every sport or what?

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Speaker 2: Yeah? Pretty much everything. It's funny because you know, while

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Speaker 2: I I truly enjoy writing about college football and then

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Speaker 2: me the better, it's funny. I haven't played an MLB

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Speaker 2: line or total in the last couple of months, but

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Speaker 2: I love betting on Triple A, so so really a

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Speaker 2: baseball I love it on Mexican League Baseball has been fun.

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Speaker 2: Just a lot of niche markets WNBA. So you know,

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Speaker 2: between writing and being a gambler myself, I feel like

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Speaker 2: I'm kind of well versed in staying on top of

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Speaker 2: things and really just diversifying different kinds of markets and

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Speaker 2: being able to help people out in different areas and

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Speaker 2: Stuff's been really really fun the last year.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, that's awesome. We focus on this podcast on the NFL,

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Speaker 1: but I will say, because you brought something up, betting

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Speaker 1: on the WNBA is one of my favorite things because

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Speaker 1: I feel like I feel like the markets don't react

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Speaker 1: as they should, and a lot of times when I'm

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Speaker 1: looking at sort of you know, my projections for over

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Speaker 1: unders in particular, they're just you know, very different than

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Speaker 1: what the over unders are set by the sports book.

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Speaker 1: So WNBA, especially given the fact that there's like this

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Speaker 1: long stretch of kind of nothing going on and All

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Speaker 1: Star Weekend in particular, when they're really that that whole

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Speaker 1: week when there's no sports going on whatsoever, I'm like

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Speaker 1: heavy into the WNB.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, it really is, and it's really enjoyable, frankly,

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Speaker 1: and it is something where if you pay attention, you

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Speaker 1: can really you can make some money there going to that.

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Speaker 1: I do love everything about your story. My sort of

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Speaker 1: background is kind of similar. The one thing I do

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Speaker 1: want to make clear is we at betting pros do

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Speaker 1: not necessarily advocate gambling when you are fourteen. We want

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Speaker 1: you to be of age. I mean it worked for

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Speaker 1: Alex even though nobody could pronounce his last name for

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Speaker 1: his entire life. He's obviously had a very successful career

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Speaker 1: so far. But again, you know, gamble responsibly. Everybody. Okay, wait,

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Speaker 1: wait till you're of age.

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Speaker 2: I'll tell you this, Dan, there's nothing that haunts me

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Speaker 2: more than being fourteen years old. And I think three

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Speaker 2: weeks into my betting career, after the Seahawks forty nine

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Speaker 2: Ers Monday night football game went under the total by

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Speaker 2: about twenty points and I had the over. I had

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Speaker 2: my mom write me a check for my losses, and

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Speaker 2: she said, if you gamble again, I am going to

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Speaker 2: disown you. And let's just say that I did not register.

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Speaker 1: Does she listen? Is she going to listen to this podcast?

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Speaker 1: You know where you live?

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Speaker 2: Now, I'll probably send it to her. You tell her.

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Speaker 2: I gave her a shout out. But it's funny because

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Speaker 2: you know, I grew up in a family of gamblers,

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Speaker 2: and you know, nothing to the extent of of really

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Speaker 2: what I'm doing. But we they always love going to Vegas.

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Speaker 2: They loved going to the local casinos. They always played

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Speaker 2: Super Bowl Super Bowl squares. My dad scratches off lottery

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Speaker 2: tickets so much. I'm sure he has carpal tunnel in

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Speaker 2: his in his left hand. But it's again, it's just

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Speaker 2: one of those things where they laugh about it because

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Speaker 2: of how I grew up and what I was around,

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Speaker 2: and to see me doing it as a full time

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Speaker 2: job now is actually probably a little bit ironic. But

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Speaker 2: you know, there are times during the colleg football season

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Speaker 2: when it's Saturday and I'm a bit about four point

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Speaker 2: thirty five getting the coffee right now, I'll FaceTime I'm

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Speaker 2: mom and she's like, all right, who do you got today.

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Speaker 2: I'm like, all right, listen here, we need the Spartans

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Speaker 2: to cover the thirteen or else I'm gonna need you

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Speaker 2: to send me your retirement fun But it's just it's

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Speaker 2: it's it's it's super lighthearted and they definitely support it,

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Speaker 2: and it's you know, it's just one of those things

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Speaker 2: that's that's funny. Look back on how things used to

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Speaker 2: be and where they are now.

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Speaker 1: Sure. Well, Misskaloja, if you're listening, don't worry, We're going

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Speaker 1: to give some good advice today. So, as I said,

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Speaker 1: we're going to be talking about some team future bets today,

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Speaker 1: including some of our favorites to win the division and

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Speaker 1: make the playoffs and then get all the way to

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Speaker 1: the super Bowl. But before we get into it, I

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Speaker 1: do want to briefly talk about one of our sponsors,

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Speaker 1: play MGM, and specifically the play MGM Sports app. Look

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Speaker 1: where and how to place your bet. But if you

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Speaker 1: live in New Jersey, or if you drive through New Jersey,

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Speaker 1: or if you want an excuse to visit your third

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Speaker 1: cousin in New Jersey, then placing a sports bet could

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Speaker 1: best part. When you use our offer code Harris that's

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Speaker 1: my last name, Harris, then your first wager of up

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Speaker 1: first wage or on the play MGM sports app when

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Speaker 1: playmgm dot com for the full list of terms and conditions,

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Speaker 1: and make sure to wager responsibly. If you've got a

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Speaker 1: gambling problem, call one eight hundred gambler. Okay, Alex, let's

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Speaker 1: get into it, and I think maybe the best way

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Speaker 1: to do it is kind of build this like a

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Speaker 1: little pyramid. You know. Let's start with a division winner

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Speaker 1: or two that you like based on their current odds,

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Speaker 1: and after that will do the same thing with the

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Speaker 1: playoff teams, follow up our AFC and NFC champs, and

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Speaker 1: then Super Bowl winners.

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Speaker 2: Okay, yeah, sounds great, man. You want to start it in.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. Well, for our odds, we're going through using Bettingpros

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Speaker 1: dot com consensus odds, and Betting Pros takes a bunch

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Speaker 1: of odds that are available in the market and they

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Speaker 1: give you the consensus of what's out there, and that's

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Speaker 1: kind of the gist of what you're going to see

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Speaker 1: over at Bettingpros dot com. It's like Fantasy Pros, but

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Speaker 1: for sports betting. Addition to original content, you're gonna see

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Speaker 1: consensus ods from across sports books, consensus picks from over

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Speaker 1: one hundred and fifty experts for pretty much every NFL

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Speaker 1: bet available for the season each week, and you can

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Speaker 1: see accuracy ratings so you can decide who you want

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Speaker 1: to go with. And we got a really lot of

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Speaker 1: tremendous stuff over there, So make sure to go to

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Speaker 1: Betting Pros dot com and just look around. You're really

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Speaker 1: gonna like what you see, all right. If you want

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Speaker 1: me to start it off, my friend, then I am

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Speaker 1: gonna start it off with the Packers to win their division,

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Speaker 1: to win the NFC North.

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Speaker 2: Now.

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Speaker 1: I talked about them on our inaugural show. I like

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Speaker 1: them at over nine wins, even though they've got a

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Speaker 1: brutal schedule to start, and like odds makers, they basically

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Speaker 1: see this as a toss up division. Right. They forget

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Speaker 1: about the Lions, who are at plus thirteen hundred. I

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Speaker 1: actually don't hate them to win the division at those odds,

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Speaker 1: but I'm not gonna get into that too much. The

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Speaker 1: Bears are a plus one seventy five, the Vikings are

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Speaker 1: a plus two hundred, and the Packers are a plus

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Speaker 1: two hundred, so it's basically a toss. I like the

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Speaker 1: Packers generally this year. I've talked about it before. The

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Speaker 1: defense is gonna be much better. They're not gonna allow

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Speaker 1: twenty five points per game, and regardless of what you

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Speaker 1: think of Matt Lafleur, the offense is probably going to

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Speaker 1: be better, and Rodgers is motivated, and the entire NFC

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Speaker 1: North they have the same schedule essentially, right. I mean,

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Speaker 1: they all played the AFC West and they all played

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Speaker 1: the NFC East. The difference is that the Packers finished

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Speaker 1: third last year, so they get to play last year's

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Speaker 1: third place finisher in the NFC West and the NFC South.

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Speaker 1: So all the Bears get the Saints and the Rams.

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Speaker 1: The Packers are going to get the Panthers and the

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Speaker 1: forty nine ers. So I think it's going to be

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Speaker 1: a close division, but I will take two to one

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Speaker 1: on my money for the Packers to win that division.

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Speaker 1: What's your favorite one?

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Speaker 2: I'm glad you said that. I'm not going to agree

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Speaker 2: with you wholeheartedly as a crime as a concrete Packers answer,

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Speaker 2: but I will say this, the Bears are a team

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Speaker 2: up from Chicago and last year's run was awesome. I

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Speaker 2: didn't think that the Bears were going to take the

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Speaker 2: step that they were going to take last season. Obviously,

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Speaker 2: with Matt Naggi and Trubisky in year two, I thought

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Speaker 2: that there was some hope on the horizon, but I

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Speaker 2: didn't see a twelve and four record at all. This

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Speaker 2: is a team that's getting a lot of attention, whether

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Speaker 2: it be in the futures market. Trubisky, I know, is

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Speaker 2: a popular pick for MVP and some shops in Las Vegas,

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Speaker 2: but personally they're a team I you know, I talked

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Speaker 2: to a lot of a lot of really smart guys,

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Speaker 2: and before coming into the season, I had a list

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Speaker 2: of win totals that I liked. I crowdsourced, I talked

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Speaker 2: to guys and to see if I can get some

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Speaker 2: consensus plays, And one of the plays that came back

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Speaker 2: consistently was Chicago under nine and a half in the

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Speaker 2: futures market on their win total. That was one that

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Speaker 2: I that I had no problem taking. So, yeah, it's

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Speaker 2: gonna it's it's not gonna be great rooty against my team,

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Speaker 2: but I feel like the Bears are certainly overvalued in

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Speaker 2: this spot. I don't have a clear cut winner for

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Speaker 2: the NFC North, but if it came down to it,

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Speaker 2: I'm split between the Vikings and the Packers. Minnesota to

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Speaker 2: me is just a team that's so tough to figure

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Speaker 2: out because they have so much talent and I just

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Speaker 2: don't understand how they're gonna play scheme wise. Last season,

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Speaker 2: I thought that with Kirk Cousins and Stefan Days and

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Speaker 2: Adam Thiel and that they would have a just a

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Speaker 2: great passing offense with with de Fallipo there and obvious

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Speaker 2: that didn't work out. So they're kind of in flux

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Speaker 2: right now, and they're a team that I really I

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Speaker 2: want to trust, but I don't know if I can trust.

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Speaker 2: But yeah, when I initially scan these odds, I looked

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Speaker 2: at the Packers too, and They're a team that's interesting

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Speaker 2: as well, just because I don't exactly know what the

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Speaker 2: consensus opinion on the Packers are because to me, it's

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Speaker 2: Aaron Rodgers, and he masks a lot of the team's

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Speaker 2: flaws to the extent that I don't even know if

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Speaker 2: the Packers are good or if Aaron Rodgers just makes

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Speaker 2: the team a lot better than they really are. But again,

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Speaker 2: they have a lot of potential in the secondary, and

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Speaker 2: I think their pass rush is gonna better this year,

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Speaker 2: and Mike McCarthy being out as addition by subtraction. So

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Speaker 2: to me this I don't have any play in the

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Speaker 2: NFC North that I will say this, I would not

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Speaker 2: recommend taking the Bears to win the division at their price.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, the Bears are plus one seventy five, I agree.

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Speaker 1: I mean I like the Vikings a lot. I'm going

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Speaker 1: to get into them a little later, I think, because

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Speaker 1: I do think frankly, to win the NFC, to win

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Speaker 1: the NFC as a whole, and possibly to win the

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Speaker 1: Super Bowl. I really like their odds there for kind

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Speaker 1: of the reason that you said, They've got a lot

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Speaker 1: of things that can really go right for them. I mean,

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Speaker 1: they've got stuff that can go wrong, but I think

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Speaker 1: bringing in Koubiak to change the offense a little bit,

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Speaker 1: hopefully to get them go. Their defense is still going

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Speaker 1: to be great, so I think they can, but just

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Speaker 1: to win the division. I kind of feel like the Packers,

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Speaker 1: especially again given the schedule. Everybody's got the same schedule.

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Speaker 1: That's the way it works in the division. In addition

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Speaker 1: to playing, I see basically the Bears, the Vikings, and

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Speaker 1: the Packers kind of beating up on each other, and

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Speaker 1: I think that the difference might be And again with Rogers,

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Speaker 1: as you said, he's really what makes the team go

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Speaker 1: and as so long as he's healthy, I think they

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Speaker 1: have a really good shot to win that division. So

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Speaker 1: at two to one, I will definitely take that.

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Speaker 2: Perfect Yeah, and the Lions too. I think he said,

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Speaker 2: you know, thirteen to one, they're a seam that I

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Speaker 2: feel like a lot of Sharks to me are split on.

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Speaker 2: I know guys who really liked them this year, and

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Speaker 2: I know people who think that they're just going to

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Speaker 2: stay in the basement of the NFC North. So I

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Speaker 2: didn't really talk about Detroit all that much, and I

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Speaker 2: think there are gonna be some good spots to play Detroit.

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Speaker 2: I actually jumped on them week one a couple months

366
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Speaker 2: ago when they were a pick them at Arizona, and

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Speaker 2: I don't know if that's gonna be the last time

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Speaker 2: that I play on them this season. But I'm extremely

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Speaker 2: curious to see how that team starts out, because after

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Speaker 2: Arizona it gets a little rough, and they could look

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Speaker 2: like a one and fourteen by the end by the

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Speaker 2: end of week five, week six, and then you know,

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Speaker 2: having a guy like Nat Patricia who didn't have a

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Speaker 2: lot of things go right on and off the field

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Speaker 2: last season, it's I'm curious to see how that team

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Speaker 2: responds if they do fall into a one and four

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Speaker 2: hole with the schedule early. But a really really intriguing

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Speaker 2: division to me, nonetheless.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I really, I mean I don't. You can certainly

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Speaker 1: put me on the side of the of the coin

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Speaker 1: that things Alliants are going to be pretty terrible this year,

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Speaker 1: but at plus thirteen hundred and again, it's not one

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Speaker 1: that I'm not putting it in.

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Speaker 2: The NFL's the ending.

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Speaker 1: You never know what's gonna happen. I agree, you know

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Speaker 1: it's true, you really don't, because anybody could could really

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Speaker 1: surprise it an given time. But for me at plus

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Speaker 1: thirteen hundred and maybe that's exactly why there is a

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Speaker 1: way that I could see them somehow being decent. I

390
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Speaker 1: don't think it's the most probable sort of path towards it,

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Speaker 1: but especially is to win the division. I mean, not

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Speaker 1: to make any noise in the playoffs, because I really

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Speaker 1: don't see them being great other than that, but to

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Speaker 1: win the division. You could see a scenario where they're

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Speaker 1: better than expected and where every other team in the

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Speaker 1: NFC North just beats the heck out of each other.

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Speaker 1: And the Lions, of course have the easiest schedule of

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Speaker 1: the teams in the NFC North, so I could see

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Speaker 1: a scenario where they somehow finished nine and seven everybody's

400
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Speaker 1: kind of a eight, and get in. But it's certainly

401
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Speaker 1: not something where I'm gonna be gone. Now, Okay, we

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Speaker 1: have spent a lot of time in the NFCL North,

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Speaker 1: So any other division, what division winner is your favorite?

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Speaker 1: Basically the the market?

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Speaker 2: Yeah. Yeah. The reason that I let you go first

406
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Speaker 2: is because I did want to start off with my pick.

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Speaker 2: And honestly, I hate to say this, but I still

408
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Speaker 2: think that the Patriots are short on their division odds

409
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Speaker 2: at minus five point fifty, you're gonna I don't even

410
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Speaker 2: know where to start with this, because it's it's it's

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Speaker 2: funny because when we do our division predictions, we talk

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Speaker 2: about value plays, and I think the common misconception is

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Speaker 2: that when you have a value play, you're typically talking

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Speaker 2: about long shots, but in reality, you're talking about something

415
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Speaker 2: that's a lot shorter longer then you perceive it to be.

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Speaker 2: And honestly, I still think that New England's short on

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Speaker 2: this the division price at minus five point fifty. You know,

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Speaker 2: we've heard a lot of talk about the Jets and

419
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Speaker 2: the Bills taking the next step and then, and they

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Speaker 2: probably do with Donald and Josh Allen respectively, but there

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Speaker 2: needs to be a lot that goes wrong for the

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Speaker 2: Patriots and a lot that goes right for one of

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Speaker 2: those two teams. And I seriously don't think that even

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Speaker 2: with you know, Brady a year older and Gronk out,

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Speaker 2: that enough happens for the Patriots to lose fewer than

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Speaker 2: ten games this season. You know, I think that they're

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Speaker 2: a raw floor team of ten wins, and I just

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Speaker 2: don't see New York or Buffalo. And forgive me, but Miami,

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Speaker 2: I apologize for not talking to you or putting you

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Speaker 2: into this equation. But between the Jets and the Bills,

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Speaker 2: I just do not see that big of elite for

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Speaker 2: one of those teams.

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Speaker 1: And that big drop off Miami. Miami is plus four

434
00:18:59,400 --> 00:19:02,199
Speaker 1: thousand window division. Okay, you never know, you said it yourself,

435
00:19:02,240 --> 00:19:06,840
Speaker 1: and I never know asional like I, I go ahead.

436
00:19:07,119 --> 00:19:08,879
Speaker 2: No again, I I you know, I don't want to.

437
00:19:09,280 --> 00:19:11,200
Speaker 2: I know it might come off like a square pick.

438
00:19:11,240 --> 00:19:13,320
Speaker 2: But this is this is one of those situations to

439
00:19:13,359 --> 00:19:15,600
Speaker 2: me where you're gonna have to make the number more

440
00:19:15,640 --> 00:19:17,720
Speaker 2: outrageous for me not to put something done on the

441
00:19:17,720 --> 00:19:19,440
Speaker 2: Patriots to win the division, because.

442
00:19:19,160 --> 00:19:21,439
Speaker 1: Out of curiosity, what what would that number be? What

443
00:19:21,480 --> 00:19:22,960
Speaker 1: would that number be where you'd be like, no.

444
00:19:23,040 --> 00:19:25,720
Speaker 2: To I would have taken anything under seven fifty, to

445
00:19:25,760 --> 00:19:27,520
Speaker 2: be perfectly honest with you, That's what that was my

446
00:19:27,680 --> 00:19:31,800
Speaker 2: cap and I would still take it. I think DK

447
00:19:31,960 --> 00:19:34,160
Speaker 2: right now is the highest at minus six twenty five,

448
00:19:34,400 --> 00:19:37,639
Speaker 2: and I would still take again. There just needs to

449
00:19:37,680 --> 00:19:40,320
Speaker 2: be and and you know what if if Tom Brady

450
00:19:40,840 --> 00:19:44,640
Speaker 2: suffers an injury Week one and things go off the rails,

451
00:19:44,680 --> 00:19:47,320
Speaker 2: then you know that's just something you can't cap. But

452
00:19:47,320 --> 00:19:49,000
Speaker 2: if if you gave me the new England team right

453
00:19:49,040 --> 00:19:52,200
Speaker 2: now on paper against everybody else. I just don't see

454
00:19:52,240 --> 00:19:54,760
Speaker 2: a significant drop off and a significant bump up from

455
00:19:54,760 --> 00:19:57,520
Speaker 2: one of those teams enough times for where i'd have

456
00:19:57,560 --> 00:19:58,399
Speaker 2: to break even on that.

457
00:19:59,000 --> 00:20:02,560
Speaker 1: I certainly think that at saying that minus five seventy five,

458
00:20:02,560 --> 00:20:05,240
Speaker 1: which is actually the consensus rankings, it's not enough. I

459
00:20:05,720 --> 00:20:09,000
Speaker 1: get that completely. I really it's very difficult, apps in

460
00:20:09,040 --> 00:20:13,720
Speaker 1: the Brady injury, to see any other team winning that division.

461
00:20:13,720 --> 00:20:13,880
Speaker 2: Now.

462
00:20:14,040 --> 00:20:15,600
Speaker 1: I mean, it's interesting what you're saying. We'll get to

463
00:20:15,640 --> 00:20:17,159
Speaker 1: that is sort of in our next segment when we

464
00:20:17,160 --> 00:20:19,399
Speaker 1: talk about playoff teams. But I do expect the Jets

465
00:20:19,400 --> 00:20:21,520
Speaker 1: and Bills to be better, and I like their odds

466
00:20:21,560 --> 00:20:23,639
Speaker 1: are actually going to be my favorite spoiler. They're going

467
00:20:23,680 --> 00:20:26,560
Speaker 1: to be my favorite odds to make the playoffs. But

468
00:20:26,600 --> 00:20:29,359
Speaker 1: I agree that winning the division just does not seem feasible.

469
00:20:29,440 --> 00:20:31,920
Speaker 1: But again, you know you do that minus five seventy five,

470
00:20:31,960 --> 00:20:34,440
Speaker 1: you're gonna have to wager a pretty penny make any

471
00:20:34,840 --> 00:20:37,240
Speaker 1: significant buck there. So but again I'm not going to

472
00:20:37,280 --> 00:20:40,159
Speaker 1: fault you just for taking what is essentially a layup

473
00:20:40,440 --> 00:20:41,760
Speaker 1: if you think that the odds are.

474
00:20:41,600 --> 00:20:42,280
Speaker 2: Better than they are.

475
00:20:42,320 --> 00:20:44,280
Speaker 1: The other team that I really kind of stuck out

476
00:20:44,320 --> 00:20:46,800
Speaker 1: to me are the Texans at plus two seventy five

477
00:20:46,880 --> 00:20:49,280
Speaker 1: to win the division. Now again, my guess is these

478
00:20:49,320 --> 00:20:52,199
Speaker 1: odds are going to change pretty soon because you know,

479
00:20:52,400 --> 00:20:55,639
Speaker 1: at last I heard anyway, it does not sound optimistic

480
00:20:55,760 --> 00:20:57,879
Speaker 1: for Luck to make the first game. I don't know

481
00:20:57,920 --> 00:21:00,640
Speaker 1: whether or not that's changed today or anything like that.

482
00:21:01,119 --> 00:21:03,560
Speaker 1: You know, with nearly three to one odds, I would

483
00:21:03,640 --> 00:21:07,720
Speaker 1: take the Texans. They've, you know, the offensive line. I

484
00:21:08,160 --> 00:21:10,439
Speaker 1: hesitate to say it's gonna be good because you know,

485
00:21:10,480 --> 00:21:13,119
Speaker 1: they've spent some draft capital there. It's gonna be better

486
00:21:13,240 --> 00:21:15,600
Speaker 1: at least than what it was last year. Watson is

487
00:21:15,640 --> 00:21:18,440
Speaker 1: going continuing to improve. I like the addition of Duke Johnson.

488
00:21:18,840 --> 00:21:22,080
Speaker 1: DeAndre Hopkins is amazing. I like their receiving corps. If

489
00:21:22,160 --> 00:21:25,080
Speaker 1: assuming that QT and will Fuller can both stay healthy,

490
00:21:25,080 --> 00:21:27,040
Speaker 1: which is a big if, and of course their defense

491
00:21:27,359 --> 00:21:29,520
Speaker 1: is great. They've won that division three of the last

492
00:21:29,520 --> 00:21:31,800
Speaker 1: four years. They're gonna be in the mix. And again,

493
00:21:32,040 --> 00:21:34,320
Speaker 1: even if Luck starts, even if he starts the year,

494
00:21:34,800 --> 00:21:36,840
Speaker 1: he takes a lot of hits throughout the year. It's

495
00:21:36,880 --> 00:21:38,760
Speaker 1: whatever's going on with an ankle that's something that could

496
00:21:38,800 --> 00:21:41,480
Speaker 1: easily be reinjured. So at plus two seventy five, that

497
00:21:41,600 --> 00:21:43,200
Speaker 1: was the other team that stuck out to me as

498
00:21:43,320 --> 00:21:44,080
Speaker 1: value that I liked.

499
00:21:44,280 --> 00:21:46,359
Speaker 2: Yeah, So Houston, I'm actually on the opposite side of

500
00:21:46,400 --> 00:21:48,720
Speaker 2: They are one of the three win totals that I have,

501
00:21:48,760 --> 00:21:52,879
Speaker 2: along with Chicago's under and Washington's under at six and

502
00:21:52,920 --> 00:21:55,159
Speaker 2: a half. But I grabbed some some Texans under eight

503
00:21:55,200 --> 00:21:58,359
Speaker 2: and a half the season just based off last season,

504
00:21:58,400 --> 00:22:01,439
Speaker 2: going from facing the easiest schedule to this year they

505
00:22:01,440 --> 00:22:04,399
Speaker 2: faced the toughest schedule. I love me some Deshaun Watson.

506
00:22:04,480 --> 00:22:07,320
Speaker 2: I love the offense, but the past defense worries me

507
00:22:07,560 --> 00:22:11,280
Speaker 2: after last season and the turnover margin as well. And

508
00:22:11,320 --> 00:22:13,639
Speaker 2: it's funny because you look at last season with that

509
00:22:13,760 --> 00:22:17,359
Speaker 2: overtime game against I believe it was Dallas that started

510
00:22:17,359 --> 00:22:19,760
Speaker 2: that nine game win streak. You know, if they lose

511
00:22:19,800 --> 00:22:22,520
Speaker 2: that game, what's the overall team moot? And how does

512
00:22:22,560 --> 00:22:25,720
Speaker 2: the season, you know, does it does it completely unravel?

513
00:22:25,720 --> 00:22:28,040
Speaker 2: And how do we perceive the Texans from there on out?

514
00:22:28,720 --> 00:22:30,480
Speaker 2: But again, the Texans were one of those teams that

515
00:22:30,520 --> 00:22:32,760
Speaker 2: I kind of crowdsourced and saw what everybody else was

516
00:22:32,800 --> 00:22:35,760
Speaker 2: on and got some good feedback on that, so they're

517
00:22:35,760 --> 00:22:38,400
Speaker 2: a team that actually have the win total on under

518
00:22:38,400 --> 00:22:41,000
Speaker 2: eight and a half for the season. The AFC South

519
00:22:41,080 --> 00:22:43,960
Speaker 2: to me is just it's bananas, because I feel like

520
00:22:44,000 --> 00:22:46,800
Speaker 2: every team, maybe outside of the Colts, is an eight

521
00:22:46,880 --> 00:22:49,320
Speaker 2: and eight team, or they could be five and eleven

522
00:22:49,440 --> 00:22:51,480
Speaker 2: and or eleven and five. They could be anywhere. And

523
00:22:51,560 --> 00:22:54,960
Speaker 2: I really wouldn't bat an eye if the Titans ended

524
00:22:55,040 --> 00:22:57,840
Speaker 2: up winning eleven games and winning the division, I'd say, oh, okay, yeah,

525
00:22:57,960 --> 00:23:00,359
Speaker 2: I could have totally seen that. If the jack Wires

526
00:23:00,359 --> 00:23:02,880
Speaker 2: finished four and twelve or four or twelve and four,

527
00:23:02,920 --> 00:23:05,119
Speaker 2: I'd say, you know, yeah, that makes sense. You know.

528
00:23:05,320 --> 00:23:08,200
Speaker 2: I just feel like there's so much fluctuation with these

529
00:23:08,240 --> 00:23:10,280
Speaker 2: teams they could go either way that I'm just kind

530
00:23:10,280 --> 00:23:13,800
Speaker 2: of like, I have no idea what's gonna happen. And

531
00:23:14,880 --> 00:23:17,240
Speaker 2: it feels like that every year. To be completely honest.

532
00:23:16,960 --> 00:23:19,760
Speaker 1: With you, yeah, the South is really it is a

533
00:23:19,760 --> 00:23:22,840
Speaker 1: tough division. Well, especially with lux injury, I think it's

534
00:23:23,000 --> 00:23:26,159
Speaker 1: very it's tough. If luck were fully healthy, I wouldn't

535
00:23:26,160 --> 00:23:28,600
Speaker 1: like the Texans at their yeah right now, because I

536
00:23:28,680 --> 00:23:30,960
Speaker 1: just think that the Colts are really a great team

537
00:23:31,160 --> 00:23:32,840
Speaker 1: when you're healthy with the injury, I like it. I

538
00:23:32,880 --> 00:23:34,639
Speaker 1: do not see a path for that. I mean, if

539
00:23:34,640 --> 00:23:36,840
Speaker 1: the Titans finish eleven and five, you know you can,

540
00:23:37,000 --> 00:23:40,600
Speaker 1: I'm gonna be shocked. I just I don't trust Mariota whatsoever.

541
00:23:40,680 --> 00:23:45,000
Speaker 1: I know, you know, Grabel can get them to play fine.

542
00:23:45,080 --> 00:23:47,480
Speaker 1: They all have a tough schedule, as sort of you mentioned,

543
00:23:47,480 --> 00:23:49,520
Speaker 1: but that is the thing with the division. It's less

544
00:23:49,600 --> 00:23:51,760
Speaker 1: about you know, they all have a tough schedule. Everyone

545
00:23:51,840 --> 00:23:54,879
Speaker 1: in the South has a tough schedule essentially. So I

546
00:23:55,200 --> 00:23:57,880
Speaker 1: do think frankly, and for all the reasons you said,

547
00:23:57,880 --> 00:23:59,679
Speaker 1: I think the points about the Texans are valid. They

548
00:24:00,040 --> 00:24:02,480
Speaker 1: certainly lucky last year. They do have a tough schedule,

549
00:24:02,480 --> 00:24:05,720
Speaker 1: but I could see if the Colts, you know, have

550
00:24:05,760 --> 00:24:07,840
Speaker 1: to deal with a luck injury. I really do think

551
00:24:08,160 --> 00:24:10,359
Speaker 1: that the Texans are are gonna surprise people because I

552
00:24:10,840 --> 00:24:13,000
Speaker 1: do think that they've addressed a lot of the holes

553
00:24:13,480 --> 00:24:15,679
Speaker 1: kind of not all of them, but certainly some of

554
00:24:15,680 --> 00:24:18,040
Speaker 1: them enough. And again, if q t N will Fuller

555
00:24:18,080 --> 00:24:19,879
Speaker 1: can finally stay healthy, and I really like the addition

556
00:24:19,880 --> 00:24:21,960
Speaker 1: of Duke Johnson, so I do think they're going to

557
00:24:22,040 --> 00:24:24,359
Speaker 1: be better than last year. And I think that'll balance

558
00:24:24,400 --> 00:24:24,760
Speaker 1: out some.

559
00:24:24,720 --> 00:24:26,000
Speaker 2: Of the luck that they got. Well, you know what,

560
00:24:26,200 --> 00:24:28,680
Speaker 2: even again, I'm a Bears fan and I'm a fan

561
00:24:28,720 --> 00:24:31,320
Speaker 2: of whoever makes me money. But the Texans too. Watching them,

562
00:24:31,320 --> 00:24:33,439
Speaker 2: they're a fun team to watch, a lot of talent

563
00:24:33,560 --> 00:24:36,960
Speaker 2: they I know, a lot of the draft hasn't panned out,

564
00:24:37,240 --> 00:24:39,679
Speaker 2: but some of the guys that they draft, I'm a

565
00:24:39,680 --> 00:24:43,880
Speaker 2: big fan of Will Foller. Obviously, Hopkins is probably still

566
00:24:43,880 --> 00:24:45,920
Speaker 2: to be one of the more underrated receivers in the league,

567
00:24:45,960 --> 00:24:48,680
Speaker 2: even though he's a top five guy. But yeah, they're

568
00:24:48,720 --> 00:24:50,960
Speaker 2: They're just a fun team to watch, and I think

569
00:24:51,000 --> 00:24:53,960
Speaker 2: the potentials through the roof. I you know, I'm not

570
00:24:54,000 --> 00:24:55,840
Speaker 2: excited to be on the win total under this year

571
00:24:55,880 --> 00:24:58,399
Speaker 2: because I'm big to Shaun Watson fan. I like watching

572
00:24:58,440 --> 00:25:02,200
Speaker 2: the offense run, but unfortunately I'm gonna be rooting against

573
00:25:02,280 --> 00:25:04,880
Speaker 2: him every week, which is not gonna be fun.

574
00:25:05,359 --> 00:25:07,720
Speaker 1: Well, you're not welcome on this podcast again. I think

575
00:25:07,760 --> 00:25:10,080
Speaker 1: that's that's what we've got to do, okay, I mean

576
00:25:10,080 --> 00:25:11,840
Speaker 1: that's where we gotta got all right. So any other

577
00:25:11,880 --> 00:25:13,760
Speaker 1: division winners that you like at their currents, you.

578
00:25:13,680 --> 00:25:16,159
Speaker 2: Know, I will touch on one, and I feel it

579
00:25:16,200 --> 00:25:17,959
Speaker 2: always sucks when you come into a season and you're

580
00:25:18,040 --> 00:25:19,320
Speaker 2: kind of high on the team and then you come

581
00:25:19,359 --> 00:25:21,360
Speaker 2: to find out that the entire market's high on him.

582
00:25:21,359 --> 00:25:23,440
Speaker 2: But I will talk about the NFC South right now.

583
00:25:23,440 --> 00:25:27,919
Speaker 2: I do like the Falcons at plus three twenty five. Again,

584
00:25:28,040 --> 00:25:30,840
Speaker 2: I liked Matt Ryan coming into the year. I thought

585
00:25:30,880 --> 00:25:33,240
Speaker 2: that I was gonna be in the minority of people

586
00:25:33,240 --> 00:25:34,960
Speaker 2: who were on the Falcons this year. But it seems

587
00:25:35,000 --> 00:25:38,000
Speaker 2: like every show that I watch, every NFL show, they

588
00:25:38,000 --> 00:25:40,560
Speaker 2: talk about the Falcons being a sleeper, which doesn't exactly

589
00:25:40,560 --> 00:25:43,480
Speaker 2: make me go to sleep happy at night. But again,

590
00:25:43,560 --> 00:25:47,240
Speaker 2: Steve Sarkisian out is an addition by subtraction. Watching them

591
00:25:47,320 --> 00:25:49,480
Speaker 2: last season, I watched a lot of Atlanta games. The

592
00:25:49,480 --> 00:25:52,840
Speaker 2: play calling was atrocious. He didn't tap into the offensive

593
00:25:52,880 --> 00:25:54,760
Speaker 2: potential on the team. I feel like a lot of

594
00:25:54,800 --> 00:25:58,960
Speaker 2: the players were misused. Play calling was downright atrocious. And

595
00:25:59,480 --> 00:26:01,359
Speaker 2: you know, I know Cutter didn't have a great stint

596
00:26:01,400 --> 00:26:03,600
Speaker 2: in Tampa, but you know, he was in Atlanta for

597
00:26:03,640 --> 00:26:06,960
Speaker 2: a couple of years, and during those two seasons, Maddie

598
00:26:06,960 --> 00:26:10,120
Speaker 2: Ice actually threw the ball more and had a few

599
00:26:10,160 --> 00:26:13,280
Speaker 2: really really good seasons with Cutter as the OC, and

600
00:26:13,320 --> 00:26:16,080
Speaker 2: I think with Calvin Ridley as the compliment to Julio

601
00:26:16,200 --> 00:26:18,440
Speaker 2: Jones and you know, the tight ends and skill corpse.

602
00:26:18,480 --> 00:26:20,680
Speaker 2: I think that offense is going to be a lot

603
00:26:20,760 --> 00:26:23,600
Speaker 2: better and the true version of what we're accustomed to

604
00:26:23,640 --> 00:26:26,199
Speaker 2: seeing with Atlanta's offense and not like last season. And

605
00:26:26,200 --> 00:26:29,560
Speaker 2: then obviously the defense is you know, I can't remember

606
00:26:29,560 --> 00:26:32,159
Speaker 2: the last time a Falcons defense had a you know,

607
00:26:32,359 --> 00:26:36,399
Speaker 2: a really really stout unit. But last season we're one

608
00:26:36,400 --> 00:26:39,440
Speaker 2: of the most injured teams. Lost Dion Jones and Can

609
00:26:39,440 --> 00:26:42,679
Speaker 2: O'Neil really really early. And so if they can avoid

610
00:26:42,680 --> 00:26:44,480
Speaker 2: the entry bug, I think that this is a solid

611
00:26:44,560 --> 00:26:47,960
Speaker 2: team and you know, again not to spoil, but they're

612
00:26:48,000 --> 00:26:49,840
Speaker 2: a team that I think is is is a good

613
00:26:49,920 --> 00:26:51,439
Speaker 2: value player to make the playoffs as well, and I

614
00:26:51,480 --> 00:26:53,159
Speaker 2: like them at plus three twenty five to win the

615
00:26:53,280 --> 00:26:53,920
Speaker 2: NFC South.

616
00:26:54,359 --> 00:26:56,320
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's not bad. I mean, of course, their defense

617
00:26:56,400 --> 00:27:00,200
Speaker 1: was basically entirely injured all last year. You know, they've

618
00:27:00,240 --> 00:27:02,919
Speaker 1: got some issues maybe on the offensive line, but you know,

619
00:27:03,040 --> 00:27:05,240
Speaker 1: certainly as a team that could surprise. I mean, they've

620
00:27:05,240 --> 00:27:07,359
Speaker 1: got to overtake the Saints, and it really depends on

621
00:27:07,680 --> 00:27:10,720
Speaker 1: whether or not you think that that this is kind

622
00:27:10,760 --> 00:27:12,720
Speaker 1: of going to be the end for Breeze or whether

623
00:27:12,760 --> 00:27:14,760
Speaker 1: they're going to be almost as good as they were

624
00:27:15,480 --> 00:27:17,199
Speaker 1: last year. But in the end, they're They're really not

625
00:27:17,240 --> 00:27:19,080
Speaker 1: a bad pick. I kind of like the Panthers too,

626
00:27:19,080 --> 00:27:20,359
Speaker 1: but I'm going to save them because I want to

627
00:27:20,400 --> 00:27:22,600
Speaker 1: talk about them a little later. So okay, just to

628
00:27:22,640 --> 00:27:25,080
Speaker 1: wrap up, you have the Patriots, which I think are

629
00:27:25,119 --> 00:27:28,760
Speaker 1: at minus five seventy five, and the Falcons at plus

630
00:27:28,800 --> 00:27:31,760
Speaker 1: three twenty five. I personally kind of like the Texans

631
00:27:31,760 --> 00:27:34,040
Speaker 1: at plus two to seventy five, which you hate, and

632
00:27:34,200 --> 00:27:39,119
Speaker 1: the Packers at plus two hundred. All right, so one, sorry,

633
00:27:39,359 --> 00:27:42,159
Speaker 1: sod we hate is a strong no no, no, I

634
00:27:42,160 --> 00:27:45,639
Speaker 1: heard hate. I heard hate. I heard hate. I heard hate,

635
00:27:45,640 --> 00:27:47,879
Speaker 1: And then you're going to be rooting strongly against them,

636
00:27:47,880 --> 00:27:49,560
Speaker 1: all right. So let's go to the teams to make

637
00:27:49,600 --> 00:27:52,760
Speaker 1: the playoffs. And obviously we're talking about lower odds here.

638
00:27:53,160 --> 00:27:54,800
Speaker 1: I mean, you can get great ons on teams like

639
00:27:54,840 --> 00:27:57,000
Speaker 1: the Dolphins or a plus nine hundred, or the Bengals

640
00:27:57,080 --> 00:27:59,240
Speaker 1: or the Cardinals were a plus seven hundred, but you're

641
00:27:59,280 --> 00:28:00,919
Speaker 1: not usually going to get a huge re turn. So

642
00:28:00,920 --> 00:28:03,520
Speaker 1: who are your favorite pets here to make the playoffs?

643
00:28:03,560 --> 00:28:06,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'll kind of go a little bit rapid fire here.

644
00:28:06,160 --> 00:28:08,800
Speaker 2: I'll give you one that isn't necessarily a plus money play,

645
00:28:08,840 --> 00:28:10,640
Speaker 2: but a team that I think is an absolute lock

646
00:28:10,680 --> 00:28:12,800
Speaker 2: to make the playoffs, and that's the Philadelphia Eagles at

647
00:28:12,800 --> 00:28:16,520
Speaker 2: minus one seventy five. I'll save them because I'm going

648
00:28:16,600 --> 00:28:18,680
Speaker 2: to talk about them a little bit later down the road,

649
00:28:18,720 --> 00:28:21,359
Speaker 2: but I think just talent wise, they stack up with anybody.

650
00:28:22,200 --> 00:28:25,359
Speaker 2: And again, I'm not high on the Dallas Cowboys this season,

651
00:28:26,640 --> 00:28:29,320
Speaker 2: so Philly is my pick to make the playoffs at

652
00:28:29,320 --> 00:28:32,080
Speaker 2: minus one seventy five. Another team that I think nobody's

653
00:28:32,119 --> 00:28:34,240
Speaker 2: really talking about this season due to what's happened in

654
00:28:34,240 --> 00:28:37,280
Speaker 2: the offseason, and that's the Steelers. Right now, they are

655
00:28:37,359 --> 00:28:39,600
Speaker 2: even money to make the playoffs. I still think this

656
00:28:39,680 --> 00:28:43,280
Speaker 2: team is uber talented. I think James Washington is ready

657
00:28:43,320 --> 00:28:46,840
Speaker 2: to step into a number two role alongside Juju. And

658
00:28:47,240 --> 00:28:49,840
Speaker 2: while I don't think that Ben Roethlisberger is going to

659
00:28:49,960 --> 00:28:51,840
Speaker 2: have the type of season they did last year when

660
00:28:51,840 --> 00:28:54,400
Speaker 2: he threw for over five thousand yards, I still think

661
00:28:54,440 --> 00:28:57,239
Speaker 2: this offense is good. I think Devin Bush is an

662
00:28:57,320 --> 00:29:00,520
Speaker 2: absolute stud in the middle of that defense. I don't

663
00:29:00,560 --> 00:29:03,760
Speaker 2: think you're talking about, you know, an eleven twelve win season.

664
00:29:03,840 --> 00:29:07,160
Speaker 2: But I think that Pittsburgh in that division is a

665
00:29:07,200 --> 00:29:09,360
Speaker 2: good play to make the playoffs. A team that that

666
00:29:09,920 --> 00:29:12,160
Speaker 2: I feel like the market is hot on Pittsburgh every

667
00:29:12,240 --> 00:29:14,200
Speaker 2: year is kind of that sleeper to come out of

668
00:29:14,200 --> 00:29:17,160
Speaker 2: the AFC and content with the Patriots and then obviously

669
00:29:17,160 --> 00:29:20,200
Speaker 2: with Le'Veon bell Antonio Brown out of the fold, the

670
00:29:20,240 --> 00:29:22,080
Speaker 2: market kind of cooled on them, and I'm actually gonna

671
00:29:22,120 --> 00:29:26,160
Speaker 2: jump on them this season as well. And then the

672
00:29:26,240 --> 00:29:29,400
Speaker 2: other the other team that I think to make the

673
00:29:29,400 --> 00:29:31,320
Speaker 2: playoffs is the I'm gonna roll with you here with

674
00:29:31,360 --> 00:29:34,760
Speaker 2: the Vikings at plus one twenty five. You know, I

675
00:29:34,800 --> 00:29:37,160
Speaker 2: wasn't willing to take the price on the division, but

676
00:29:37,760 --> 00:29:39,680
Speaker 2: you know, if they can, you know, if they can

677
00:29:39,720 --> 00:29:42,600
Speaker 2: actually reach their true potential and they could win ten

678
00:29:42,640 --> 00:29:44,960
Speaker 2: games this season, then I think that I'll that I'll

679
00:29:44,960 --> 00:29:47,120
Speaker 2: take the plus one twenty five in Minnesota when when

680
00:29:47,160 --> 00:29:49,640
Speaker 2: we talk about it, and this isn't you know, this

681
00:29:49,680 --> 00:29:53,239
Speaker 2: isn't anything earth shattering. I'm sure if you're betting on

682
00:29:53,480 --> 00:29:55,360
Speaker 2: the NFL and betting in the NFL market that I'm

683
00:29:55,400 --> 00:29:57,920
Speaker 2: sure you know about the teams that didn't make the playoffs.

684
00:29:58,000 --> 00:29:59,640
Speaker 2: You know, the new teams that always make the playoffs

685
00:29:59,680 --> 00:30:02,720
Speaker 2: next year. The Vikings were one of the teams that

686
00:30:02,800 --> 00:30:05,160
Speaker 2: I talked about one of my articles that if we're

687
00:30:05,160 --> 00:30:07,280
Speaker 2: talking about fresh teams in the playoffs, and this is

688
00:30:07,320 --> 00:30:11,280
Speaker 2: probably your pick here and a team that's probably poised

689
00:30:11,280 --> 00:30:14,320
Speaker 2: and has the potential to to make noise in the playoffs.

690
00:30:15,160 --> 00:30:17,240
Speaker 1: Yeah, I like all three of those picks, frankly, I

691
00:30:17,600 --> 00:30:20,280
Speaker 1: really do. Yeah, You're welcome to see how we do things

692
00:30:20,280 --> 00:30:23,959
Speaker 1: when i'm host. I'm like, man, your picks are great.

693
00:30:23,400 --> 00:30:25,960
Speaker 2: Your texts pick well, you know Dan that you know

694
00:30:26,120 --> 00:30:26,920
Speaker 2: I respect your pick.

695
00:30:27,000 --> 00:30:30,080
Speaker 1: It's a terrible pick that I'll take that. I'll take it.

696
00:30:30,120 --> 00:30:32,320
Speaker 1: I'll take the respects, frankly, because it's better than what

697
00:30:32,320 --> 00:30:34,560
Speaker 1: you were giving me before. And look again, missus Kloj,

698
00:30:34,840 --> 00:30:37,040
Speaker 1: just teacher some better manners. Okay, because I know you're

699
00:30:37,080 --> 00:30:39,520
Speaker 1: listening and that you love this podcast right now. Okay,

700
00:30:39,680 --> 00:30:41,760
Speaker 1: So look, I do like all of those. I'm going

701
00:30:41,760 --> 00:30:43,880
Speaker 1: to talk about the Steelers probably a little bit later,

702
00:30:44,760 --> 00:30:47,240
Speaker 1: but I do think them. The Vikings are really an

703
00:30:47,320 --> 00:30:50,520
Speaker 1: intriguing team, and they're they're one of my favorites at

704
00:30:50,520 --> 00:30:52,960
Speaker 1: their odds to either win the NFC, which we'll talk

705
00:30:52,960 --> 00:30:54,600
Speaker 1: about in a bit, or even win the super Bowl,

706
00:30:54,600 --> 00:30:57,960
Speaker 1: because they're the type of team where if things go right,

707
00:30:58,320 --> 00:31:02,520
Speaker 1: they're going to be really really, really really good. And

708
00:31:02,640 --> 00:31:05,160
Speaker 1: so it's one of these things whereas the odds grow, especially,

709
00:31:05,200 --> 00:31:07,600
Speaker 1: you know, they're a team if they get home field especially,

710
00:31:07,720 --> 00:31:09,280
Speaker 1: they're going to be able to really make some noise.

711
00:31:09,280 --> 00:31:10,960
Speaker 1: So I do like all of those teams for me,

712
00:31:11,280 --> 00:31:14,400
Speaker 1: as I mentioned earlier, I like the Bills at plus

713
00:31:14,440 --> 00:31:17,760
Speaker 1: three point fifty and the Jets at plus two seventy five. So,

714
00:31:18,160 --> 00:31:20,840
Speaker 1: as you mentioned, and for all the reasons, absent Brady

715
00:31:20,920 --> 00:31:23,880
Speaker 1: going down with essentially a season ending injury, it's almost

716
00:31:23,880 --> 00:31:27,360
Speaker 1: impossible to see any team in the AFC East other

717
00:31:27,400 --> 00:31:30,080
Speaker 1: than the Patriots winning that division. But the bottom line

718
00:31:30,080 --> 00:31:32,200
Speaker 1: is that the AFC East this year has a really

719
00:31:32,240 --> 00:31:32,960
Speaker 1: easy schedule.

720
00:31:32,960 --> 00:31:33,680
Speaker 2: All the teams do.

721
00:31:34,080 --> 00:31:36,600
Speaker 1: And that's why I talked earlier when our I think

722
00:31:36,680 --> 00:31:40,040
Speaker 1: our last episode about the Bills. I like them over

723
00:31:40,800 --> 00:31:44,120
Speaker 1: six and a half wins for the year. The defense

724
00:31:44,160 --> 00:31:47,480
Speaker 1: overall is very solid. I like Josh Allen generally speaking.

725
00:31:47,720 --> 00:31:50,479
Speaker 1: You know he's got accuracy concerns, but over a full season,

726
00:31:50,760 --> 00:31:52,520
Speaker 1: I think he's certainly going to improve the team. They've

727
00:31:52,520 --> 00:31:54,360
Speaker 1: got that at the running back they added John Brown.

728
00:31:54,400 --> 00:31:57,360
Speaker 1: But really it's mostly about the schedule. I mean, especially

729
00:31:57,400 --> 00:31:59,000
Speaker 1: when you look at the Bills. Right they open at

730
00:31:59,000 --> 00:32:01,480
Speaker 1: the Jets, then they're at the Giants and their home

731
00:32:01,520 --> 00:32:03,960
Speaker 1: against the Bengals, then they played the Pats, but then

732
00:32:04,000 --> 00:32:06,680
Speaker 1: it's at the Titans, a bye, and then the Dolphins.

733
00:32:06,680 --> 00:32:09,640
Speaker 1: They could legitimately start five and one, and then you

734
00:32:09,760 --> 00:32:13,000
Speaker 1: throw in games against Washington at Miami. Again, they've got

735
00:32:13,000 --> 00:32:14,800
Speaker 1: home games late in the year where it's always tough

736
00:32:14,840 --> 00:32:17,640
Speaker 1: to play against the Broncos and the Ravens and the Jets,

737
00:32:17,640 --> 00:32:20,560
Speaker 1: so I think they can surprise, and the teams like

738
00:32:20,760 --> 00:32:23,480
Speaker 1: the AFC North and the AFC South, they're going to

739
00:32:23,520 --> 00:32:25,040
Speaker 1: have to beat each other up a little bit. So

740
00:32:25,080 --> 00:32:28,000
Speaker 1: I could see them basically getting maybe to nine and seven,

741
00:32:28,080 --> 00:32:30,080
Speaker 1: or if everything broke right, maybe ten and six. But

742
00:32:30,160 --> 00:32:32,520
Speaker 1: nine and seven they've getting the tenth best odds to

743
00:32:32,520 --> 00:32:34,680
Speaker 1: make the playoffs, so I like them at plus three

744
00:32:34,840 --> 00:32:37,360
Speaker 1: fifty and for similar reasons, I like the Jets, even

745
00:32:37,400 --> 00:32:39,560
Speaker 1: though the odds are worse at plus two to seventy five.

746
00:32:39,640 --> 00:32:42,200
Speaker 1: I really do think that the offense is going to

747
00:32:42,240 --> 00:32:44,320
Speaker 1: be very good this year, I see Darnold you mentioned

748
00:32:44,320 --> 00:32:48,080
Speaker 1: it earlier having some growth this year with Gase. I

749
00:32:48,120 --> 00:32:50,239
Speaker 1: think Le'Veon Bell is going to add some stuff. I

750
00:32:50,360 --> 00:32:52,760
Speaker 1: like adding Jameson Crowder to the team. I think the

751
00:32:52,800 --> 00:32:55,400
Speaker 1: front seven is going to be solid with the Williams boys.

752
00:32:55,400 --> 00:32:58,400
Speaker 1: The loss of Avery Williamson definitely hurts, but CJ. Moseley

753
00:32:58,440 --> 00:33:01,040
Speaker 1: is still there and their cornerback situation is terrible. But

754
00:33:01,080 --> 00:33:03,920
Speaker 1: I do think that Greg Williams can get creative enough

755
00:33:04,120 --> 00:33:06,080
Speaker 1: to buy them a few wins. So essentially, when you

756
00:33:06,120 --> 00:33:09,320
Speaker 1: look at their schedules, I mean the Jets like the Bills.

757
00:33:09,360 --> 00:33:12,160
Speaker 1: I mean they're against the Giants, the Redskins, the Bengals,

758
00:33:12,200 --> 00:33:14,680
Speaker 1: the Raiders. They've got the two against the Dolphins. I

759
00:33:14,680 --> 00:33:16,920
Speaker 1: think they both have a chance to at least make

760
00:33:16,960 --> 00:33:19,520
Speaker 1: some noise again, not win the division, but to make

761
00:33:19,560 --> 00:33:21,959
Speaker 1: the playoffs. Yeah. I like them both, the Jets at

762
00:33:21,960 --> 00:33:24,200
Speaker 1: almost three to one two seventy five and the Bills

763
00:33:24,240 --> 00:33:25,040
Speaker 1: up plus three fifty.

764
00:33:25,440 --> 00:33:26,880
Speaker 2: You know, I really like what you said about the

765
00:33:26,960 --> 00:33:29,960
Speaker 2: Vikings when you talked about if things go right and

766
00:33:30,040 --> 00:33:32,520
Speaker 2: this team could be very dangerous. I feel like last

767
00:33:32,560 --> 00:33:35,760
Speaker 2: season was very very reminiscent and cut from the same

768
00:33:35,800 --> 00:33:38,959
Speaker 2: cloth as basically every Chargers team, and all you were

769
00:33:39,040 --> 00:33:42,760
Speaker 2: kind of missing was, you know, an embarrassing moment in

770
00:33:42,800 --> 00:33:46,360
Speaker 2: the playoffs, because it seems like every season you have

771
00:33:46,400 --> 00:33:49,080
Speaker 2: a team like the Chargers who has a very, very

772
00:33:49,160 --> 00:33:51,560
Speaker 2: high ceiling and all you need is just a couple

773
00:33:51,600 --> 00:33:53,479
Speaker 2: of things to go right and then it ends up

774
00:33:53,560 --> 00:33:56,600
Speaker 2: crumbling and bottoming out. But Minnesota, man, when you talk

775
00:33:56,600 --> 00:33:58,680
Speaker 2: about the defense, the defense last season, I know they

776
00:33:58,720 --> 00:34:00,440
Speaker 2: took a step back, but the piece that they have

777
00:34:00,480 --> 00:34:03,720
Speaker 2: in that defense is absolutely unreal. And you know, you

778
00:34:03,760 --> 00:34:05,680
Speaker 2: think that with Kirk Cousins in the fold, with the

779
00:34:05,720 --> 00:34:08,640
Speaker 2: receiving corps, that he has a healthy Delvan Cook. You know,

780
00:34:08,719 --> 00:34:11,239
Speaker 2: obviously the offensive line isn't all that great, but you know,

781
00:34:11,280 --> 00:34:12,920
Speaker 2: there are pieces to work with, and I feel I

782
00:34:12,960 --> 00:34:15,640
Speaker 2: feel like if Minnesota taps into his potential, then the

783
00:34:15,680 --> 00:34:17,160
Speaker 2: sky's the limit. So I.

784
00:34:19,480 --> 00:34:21,959
Speaker 1: Feel like the addition with Kubiak there too, I feel

785
00:34:22,000 --> 00:34:24,160
Speaker 1: like he's gonna really you know, I know he's not.

786
00:34:24,600 --> 00:34:25,759
Speaker 1: I don't know what his title is.

787
00:34:25,840 --> 00:34:29,040
Speaker 2: I always get I think, you know what offensive assistant.

788
00:34:28,920 --> 00:34:31,880
Speaker 1: Yeah something, whatever he is. I mean, you know, he

789
00:34:31,960 --> 00:34:34,520
Speaker 1: runs the zone blocking scheme. Cook is familiar with that.

790
00:34:34,560 --> 00:34:35,960
Speaker 1: I think it's gonna help. I think they're going to

791
00:34:36,040 --> 00:34:39,400
Speaker 1: get Cousins out in like play action passes a little bit,

792
00:34:39,520 --> 00:34:41,680
Speaker 1: open up the offense a little bit. I I I again,

793
00:34:41,719 --> 00:34:45,640
Speaker 1: they are certainly one of my favorites to win the

794
00:34:45,640 --> 00:34:49,480
Speaker 1: the NFC generally, and and the Super Bowl given their current.

795
00:34:49,480 --> 00:34:53,680
Speaker 2: Are you ready for this? Dan Gary is an offensive advisor.

796
00:34:53,920 --> 00:34:55,440
Speaker 2: He advises the offense.

797
00:34:55,920 --> 00:34:58,000
Speaker 1: You know what, I can advise the offense. I don't

798
00:34:58,040 --> 00:35:00,200
Speaker 1: understand why people like us can't get that. I I

799
00:35:00,239 --> 00:35:02,520
Speaker 1: can advise anybody you want. I really don't know what

800
00:35:02,560 --> 00:35:04,640
Speaker 1: that means, frankly, but I do know that when Kubiak

801
00:35:04,680 --> 00:35:07,800
Speaker 1: touches an offense, it generally gets better. So I really

802
00:35:07,840 --> 00:35:10,080
Speaker 1: the Vikings, even though I do like the Packers to

803
00:35:10,120 --> 00:35:12,560
Speaker 1: win their division at the odds, because I do think

804
00:35:12,800 --> 00:35:15,279
Speaker 1: there's I really expect the Packers to be good, and

805
00:35:15,320 --> 00:35:18,320
Speaker 1: the Vikings I think have the path to be really

806
00:35:18,360 --> 00:35:20,040
Speaker 1: really good. But I think they also have a path

807
00:35:20,200 --> 00:35:22,440
Speaker 1: to not be quite as good at all. So I

808
00:35:22,480 --> 00:35:24,920
Speaker 1: think the upside of them with the greater odds we'll

809
00:35:24,920 --> 00:35:27,120
Speaker 1: talk about in a minute really makes me like them there.

810
00:35:27,280 --> 00:35:30,000
Speaker 1: But other than that, I personally for the division wise

811
00:35:30,400 --> 00:35:32,080
Speaker 1: I like the Packers best, all right, So let me

812
00:35:32,120 --> 00:35:34,840
Speaker 1: just recap here. You like to make the playoffs?

813
00:35:35,080 --> 00:35:35,480
Speaker 2: You like?

814
00:35:36,520 --> 00:35:37,840
Speaker 1: Goodness? Did I forget it already?

815
00:35:37,840 --> 00:35:41,440
Speaker 2: Oh? The Eagle Steelers. Love the Eagles, Eagles, Steelers and

816
00:35:41,760 --> 00:35:42,400
Speaker 2: the Vikings.

817
00:35:42,480 --> 00:35:44,960
Speaker 1: Yes, the Eagles at minus one seventy five, that's right,

818
00:35:45,600 --> 00:35:49,839
Speaker 1: the Steelers at even and the Vikings at plus one

819
00:35:49,880 --> 00:35:53,160
Speaker 1: twenty five. I like a little more odds. I like

820
00:35:53,239 --> 00:35:55,920
Speaker 1: the Bills at plus three fifty and I like the

821
00:35:56,000 --> 00:35:58,640
Speaker 1: Jets at plus two seventy five. All right, So we

822
00:35:58,719 --> 00:36:01,200
Speaker 1: are going to be moving now over to our NFC

823
00:36:01,239 --> 00:36:03,839
Speaker 1: and AFC winners. But before we move on, I do

824
00:36:03,880 --> 00:36:06,319
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825
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826
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829
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831
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836
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837
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838
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844
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845
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847
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848
00:37:13,280 --> 00:37:15,840
Speaker 1: to some conference winners and let's start with the AFC.

849
00:37:15,920 --> 00:37:16,760
Speaker 1: Who do you like here?

850
00:37:16,880 --> 00:37:18,399
Speaker 2: Yeah? I think I'm just gonna go with the same

851
00:37:18,440 --> 00:37:20,799
Speaker 2: pick here and go with the Steelers at eleven to

852
00:37:20,840 --> 00:37:24,799
Speaker 2: one at plus eleven hundred. Everybody up top feels properly

853
00:37:24,800 --> 00:37:28,760
Speaker 2: priced when you're talking about the pecking order of New England,

854
00:37:28,840 --> 00:37:32,919
Speaker 2: Kansas City, Indianapolis, and obviously the Chargers. Every year, they're

855
00:37:32,960 --> 00:37:34,719
Speaker 2: a team that I feel like every year, I'm like,

856
00:37:34,800 --> 00:37:36,839
Speaker 2: this is this is the year They're gonna come out

857
00:37:36,880 --> 00:37:40,000
Speaker 2: in the powder Blues every week. Philly Rivers is gonna

858
00:37:40,400 --> 00:37:42,840
Speaker 2: you know, throw for four fifty. The defense is solid,

859
00:37:42,880 --> 00:37:45,120
Speaker 2: and truly the team is talented, but it's it's just

860
00:37:45,160 --> 00:37:47,000
Speaker 2: a team that I've been burned by so many times

861
00:37:47,040 --> 00:37:49,480
Speaker 2: in the past that I can't bring myself to take

862
00:37:49,480 --> 00:37:51,719
Speaker 2: them this year. So there are some teams that I

863
00:37:51,719 --> 00:37:55,279
Speaker 2: feel like are properly mispriced. You know, I can't believe

864
00:37:55,280 --> 00:37:58,160
Speaker 2: we're living in an era where Cleveland actually has shorter

865
00:37:58,239 --> 00:38:01,080
Speaker 2: odds than Pittsburgh, right, you know. But but to me,

866
00:38:01,160 --> 00:38:03,120
Speaker 2: I think that I think the real value play for

867
00:38:03,200 --> 00:38:06,280
Speaker 2: me here is Pittsburgh at eleven to one. Again, just basically,

868
00:38:06,280 --> 00:38:08,600
Speaker 2: for all the reasons that I talked about earlier, I

869
00:38:08,840 --> 00:38:10,880
Speaker 2: feel like they're kind of being disrespected in the market.

870
00:38:10,960 --> 00:38:14,920
Speaker 2: And again I still feel like this is a talented team. Again,

871
00:38:15,080 --> 00:38:17,160
Speaker 2: you know, every team has flaws, and you know, the

872
00:38:17,160 --> 00:38:21,399
Speaker 2: Steelers are very similar to that. But again, I think

873
00:38:21,400 --> 00:38:24,360
Speaker 2: the talent's there. You need a veteran quarterback to go

874
00:38:24,520 --> 00:38:26,879
Speaker 2: toe to toe with the Kansas City's and the New

875
00:38:26,920 --> 00:38:30,560
Speaker 2: England's of the AFC. And I think with LUs injury

876
00:38:30,600 --> 00:38:34,480
Speaker 2: to the Colts obviously that kind of puts a hold

877
00:38:34,480 --> 00:38:37,160
Speaker 2: on things. And the Steelers to me, are the best

878
00:38:37,200 --> 00:38:38,359
Speaker 2: value play at eleven to one.

879
00:38:39,040 --> 00:38:41,520
Speaker 1: I actually completely agree. And I'm not just saying that

880
00:38:41,680 --> 00:38:43,880
Speaker 1: to butter you up this time like I was with

881
00:38:43,920 --> 00:38:45,759
Speaker 1: all the rest of your picks, which I hated but

882
00:38:45,880 --> 00:38:48,719
Speaker 1: pretended just thank you to be happy, have a good

883
00:38:48,719 --> 00:38:50,600
Speaker 1: rest of the show. No, I think the Steelers have

884
00:38:50,680 --> 00:38:53,680
Speaker 1: plus eleven hundred also is probably the best value. Look

885
00:38:53,760 --> 00:38:56,080
Speaker 1: that division is going to be a dogfight, but you

886
00:38:56,120 --> 00:38:57,759
Speaker 1: know they could win it. They're in the playoff hunt

887
00:38:57,800 --> 00:39:00,640
Speaker 1: every year. Despite the loss of Antonio Brown, I really

888
00:39:00,680 --> 00:39:03,239
Speaker 1: don't expect their team to look that much different. They've

889
00:39:03,239 --> 00:39:05,319
Speaker 1: still got the solid defense, and again you talked about it.

890
00:39:05,320 --> 00:39:08,799
Speaker 1: When you're talking about the winner of a conference at

891
00:39:08,800 --> 00:39:11,560
Speaker 1: this point, you've got to have a team that's got

892
00:39:11,560 --> 00:39:13,120
Speaker 1: the shot to win in the playoffs if they can

893
00:39:13,120 --> 00:39:15,600
Speaker 1: get home field, and again you've said it, they will

894
00:39:15,680 --> 00:39:17,799
Speaker 1: randomly lay an egg in the playoffs like they did

895
00:39:17,800 --> 00:39:20,839
Speaker 1: against Jacksonville a couple of years ago. They are very

896
00:39:20,880 --> 00:39:22,799
Speaker 1: easily they can look like world beaters and they can

897
00:39:22,840 --> 00:39:25,680
Speaker 1: just come out there and completely fall apart. But in

898
00:39:25,719 --> 00:39:28,120
Speaker 1: the end, when you're looking at teams and you're looking

899
00:39:28,120 --> 00:39:30,799
Speaker 1: at the odds, teams that can really make noise and

900
00:39:30,800 --> 00:39:32,960
Speaker 1: you can see a path to them winning the conference.

901
00:39:33,000 --> 00:39:35,960
Speaker 1: I certainly think the Steelers at plus eleven hundred are

902
00:39:36,000 --> 00:39:38,080
Speaker 1: definitely right up there. And again you talked about it,

903
00:39:38,280 --> 00:39:41,359
Speaker 1: the Browns are at plus seven point fifty. I mean, look,

904
00:39:41,719 --> 00:39:44,680
Speaker 1: I know the public loves of Browns, and frankly I've

905
00:39:44,719 --> 00:39:47,319
Speaker 1: tried to get off them just generally, like looking at

906
00:39:47,320 --> 00:39:49,400
Speaker 1: their over under wind total, which we talked about a

907
00:39:49,440 --> 00:39:51,640
Speaker 1: couple of shows ago, which I think is nine and

908
00:39:51,640 --> 00:39:54,120
Speaker 1: a half, and you know, the public loves them, and

909
00:39:54,160 --> 00:39:56,759
Speaker 1: when that happens, I really like to kind of go

910
00:39:56,840 --> 00:39:59,480
Speaker 1: the other way if there's a reason to, because that's

911
00:39:59,560 --> 00:40:03,040
Speaker 1: generally what the sports books expect. They expect the public

912
00:40:03,080 --> 00:40:04,719
Speaker 1: to go one way, and to the extent they do,

913
00:40:05,200 --> 00:40:07,200
Speaker 1: the other way is probably going to be the better value.

914
00:40:07,320 --> 00:40:09,719
Speaker 1: And it's hard, though, it's hard to get off the

915
00:40:09,719 --> 00:40:12,400
Speaker 1: brown So I get it because they are talented and

916
00:40:12,480 --> 00:40:14,360
Speaker 1: they do have a good shot this year, but plus

917
00:40:14,400 --> 00:40:17,399
Speaker 1: seven fifty versus plus eleven hundred for the Steelers, that

918
00:40:17,400 --> 00:40:20,600
Speaker 1: that's way too much. And I really think that of everyone,

919
00:40:21,000 --> 00:40:23,840
Speaker 1: the Steelers at plus eleven hundred, I agree, that's probably

920
00:40:23,880 --> 00:40:24,560
Speaker 1: the best bet.

921
00:40:24,719 --> 00:40:27,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, the Browns, The Browns loves Funny. It's been a

922
00:40:27,239 --> 00:40:29,920
Speaker 2: very interesting storyline to say the least. Last you know,

923
00:40:29,960 --> 00:40:31,799
Speaker 2: could you imagine if this season they were on hard

924
00:40:31,880 --> 00:40:35,440
Speaker 2: knocks with everybody you know jumping on board. Last season

925
00:40:35,480 --> 00:40:37,520
Speaker 2: it was fun to watch the public kind of you know,

926
00:40:37,600 --> 00:40:40,080
Speaker 2: buying the Baker and you know, now they have Odell,

927
00:40:40,200 --> 00:40:41,799
Speaker 2: and you know, I wish I would have jumped on

928
00:40:41,840 --> 00:40:45,320
Speaker 2: some Browns futures before all the moves started happening. Obviously,

929
00:40:45,320 --> 00:40:47,399
Speaker 2: it's easy to say that in hindsight, you know, and

930
00:40:47,680 --> 00:40:49,520
Speaker 2: when things are in the rear view mirror. But yeah,

931
00:40:49,560 --> 00:40:51,600
Speaker 2: it's to me, it's just it's kind of getting to

932
00:40:51,640 --> 00:40:54,440
Speaker 2: the point where it's it's getting blown out of proportion

933
00:40:54,520 --> 00:40:56,120
Speaker 2: a little bit. So, yeah, there there were some there

934
00:40:56,120 --> 00:40:58,520
Speaker 2: were some numbers, you know, previously in the market that

935
00:40:58,840 --> 00:41:01,120
Speaker 2: were doable. I think eight and a half. You know,

936
00:41:01,120 --> 00:41:02,279
Speaker 2: if you got eight or eight and a half. I

937
00:41:02,560 --> 00:41:05,359
Speaker 2: thought that, you know, that was that made a lot

938
00:41:05,360 --> 00:41:07,040
Speaker 2: more sense than it does nine and a half and

939
00:41:07,120 --> 00:41:09,560
Speaker 2: expecting a team, you know, who hasn't had a winning

940
00:41:09,560 --> 00:41:12,000
Speaker 2: record since I'm to finish with ten wins, you know,

941
00:41:12,040 --> 00:41:14,920
Speaker 2: it seems like a stretch, especially with you know, Freddy Kitchens.

942
00:41:15,080 --> 00:41:18,360
Speaker 2: I'm not exactly sure if if you know, he deserves

943
00:41:18,400 --> 00:41:20,319
Speaker 2: all the all the credit that he's getting so far.

944
00:41:20,360 --> 00:41:23,560
Speaker 2: And I know Baker is obviously talented and at OBJ

945
00:41:23,840 --> 00:41:27,520
Speaker 2: and and really the Browns rebuilt in itself kind of

946
00:41:27,680 --> 00:41:29,520
Speaker 2: happened all really really quick. You know, they don't have

947
00:41:29,560 --> 00:41:31,600
Speaker 2: a lot of holes, but still it's it's, you know,

948
00:41:31,840 --> 00:41:34,200
Speaker 2: it's a team that's not really accustomed to winning, and

949
00:41:34,320 --> 00:41:36,319
Speaker 2: you know, you want to see how they respond if they,

950
00:41:36,440 --> 00:41:38,760
Speaker 2: you know, you know, if they face any sort of adversity.

951
00:41:38,760 --> 00:41:40,400
Speaker 2: But to me, when you stack up the Browns and

952
00:41:40,440 --> 00:41:43,840
Speaker 2: the Steelers talent wise, roster you know, roster wise, I

953
00:41:43,840 --> 00:41:45,960
Speaker 2: don't I don't think that there's you know, that big

954
00:41:45,960 --> 00:41:48,360
Speaker 2: of a discrepancy between between the two clubs.

955
00:41:48,800 --> 00:41:50,799
Speaker 1: Yeah, and you could see them going south real quick,

956
00:41:50,840 --> 00:41:52,759
Speaker 1: right if they get off to a terrible start, just

957
00:41:52,800 --> 00:41:55,440
Speaker 1: sort of the the personalities on that team you could

958
00:41:55,440 --> 00:41:57,399
Speaker 1: definitely see it. So for me, certainly, the odds would

959
00:41:57,400 --> 00:41:59,399
Speaker 1: have to be much better for me to consider taking them.

960
00:41:59,640 --> 00:42:02,960
Speaker 1: I really don't like anybody else, no kind of in

961
00:42:03,040 --> 00:42:05,120
Speaker 1: the AFC. I mean, the only other ones that I

962
00:42:05,160 --> 00:42:07,760
Speaker 1: was thinking of is this. I would monitor the Colts

963
00:42:07,840 --> 00:42:11,520
Speaker 1: closely because if Luck does look like he's progressing and

964
00:42:11,560 --> 00:42:13,600
Speaker 1: looks like he's gonna be healthy forer week one, then

965
00:42:13,600 --> 00:42:16,560
Speaker 1: at plus seven hundred, I would be intrigued by that

966
00:42:16,640 --> 00:42:19,120
Speaker 1: because I do think that they're a dynamic team. They're

967
00:42:19,120 --> 00:42:21,719
Speaker 1: pretty much elite across the board, so if they are

968
00:42:21,760 --> 00:42:24,120
Speaker 1: able to have Luck as a healthy quarterback, I wouldn't

969
00:42:24,120 --> 00:42:26,400
Speaker 1: mind doing that. I also, frankly, I would not be

970
00:42:26,440 --> 00:42:29,239
Speaker 1: opposed to just throwing money down on both the Patriots

971
00:42:29,239 --> 00:42:31,080
Speaker 1: at plus three twenty five and the Chiefs at plus

972
00:42:31,120 --> 00:42:34,640
Speaker 1: four hundred. They're not great odds, but it's really tough

973
00:42:34,960 --> 00:42:37,480
Speaker 1: to see another team kind of peeking through there, and

974
00:42:37,520 --> 00:42:40,400
Speaker 1: when you're getting three or four on your money, I

975
00:42:40,440 --> 00:42:42,480
Speaker 1: could see doing that. And the only other one I like,

976
00:42:42,520 --> 00:42:44,400
Speaker 1: which I know you hate because we've talked about it

977
00:42:44,480 --> 00:42:49,240
Speaker 1: and again is sort of the Sexans. They're plus seventeen hundred. Again,

978
00:42:49,480 --> 00:42:51,960
Speaker 1: it's a team where I think, if everything goes right,

979
00:42:52,040 --> 00:42:54,359
Speaker 1: and that's really what I'm looking for. If everything goes right,

980
00:42:54,840 --> 00:42:57,399
Speaker 1: they could be a really really good team if they

981
00:42:57,400 --> 00:42:59,520
Speaker 1: stay fully healthy. And again if they are able to

982
00:42:59,560 --> 00:43:02,160
Speaker 1: maybe get don't build advantage because they're able to win

983
00:43:02,200 --> 00:43:04,279
Speaker 1: that division or anything like that. And again, at this

984
00:43:04,320 --> 00:43:06,600
Speaker 1: point they're battle tested. They don't do that well in

985
00:43:06,600 --> 00:43:09,080
Speaker 1: the playoffs, but they certainly have been there at this point.

986
00:43:09,120 --> 00:43:11,279
Speaker 1: So really, those are the only other ones I like

987
00:43:11,280 --> 00:43:13,040
Speaker 1: in the AFC. I don't know if there's anything else

988
00:43:13,080 --> 00:43:15,440
Speaker 1: that you saw that you thought represented good value.

989
00:43:15,560 --> 00:43:17,839
Speaker 2: Yeah, no, there really isn't. Like after you get past

990
00:43:17,880 --> 00:43:20,439
Speaker 2: that first tier, I think there are obviously certain teams

991
00:43:20,480 --> 00:43:23,919
Speaker 2: that have higher ceilings. You know, with Buffalo or New York.

992
00:43:24,000 --> 00:43:27,360
Speaker 2: If if Donald takes if Donald or Josh Allen, you know,

993
00:43:27,360 --> 00:43:29,120
Speaker 2: if either one of those guys takes the next step.

994
00:43:29,160 --> 00:43:31,279
Speaker 2: And I think Josh Allen's kind of in a more

995
00:43:31,440 --> 00:43:33,960
Speaker 2: suitable position with the defense that he has playing on

996
00:43:34,000 --> 00:43:37,480
Speaker 2: the opposite side. But again, you know, there's there's nothing

997
00:43:37,800 --> 00:43:39,560
Speaker 2: and I like the way you phrase that too, where

998
00:43:39,600 --> 00:43:41,719
Speaker 2: you can you can see a team winning. You know,

999
00:43:41,880 --> 00:43:43,719
Speaker 2: sometimes all it takes is looking at a team and

1000
00:43:43,760 --> 00:43:46,759
Speaker 2: thinking about the coaching staff, and you know, I know

1001
00:43:46,800 --> 00:43:49,920
Speaker 2: it sounds cliche, but I think that you can oftentimes

1002
00:43:49,920 --> 00:43:51,960
Speaker 2: look at a team and think there's no way that

1003
00:43:52,040 --> 00:43:54,520
Speaker 2: a team like X or Y is going to do

1004
00:43:54,520 --> 00:43:56,480
Speaker 2: anything in the playoffs, whether it be because of the

1005
00:43:56,560 --> 00:43:59,600
Speaker 2: quarterback play or any holes on the roster or the

1006
00:43:59,640 --> 00:44:02,040
Speaker 2: coaching staff where you can say there's no way that

1007
00:44:02,080 --> 00:44:04,080
Speaker 2: this team can do it with what they have and

1008
00:44:04,120 --> 00:44:06,600
Speaker 2: the personnel that they have. And there are certainly teams

1009
00:44:06,600 --> 00:44:10,120
Speaker 2: with higher ceilings in the NFL, and there's really nobody

1010
00:44:10,120 --> 00:44:12,040
Speaker 2: passed that first tier that I'd be even willing to

1011
00:44:12,080 --> 00:44:15,239
Speaker 2: take a flyer on, whether it's Jacksonville or Tennessee or

1012
00:44:15,800 --> 00:44:18,720
Speaker 2: you know, Denver, a team like that that would actually

1013
00:44:18,760 --> 00:44:21,120
Speaker 2: make noise in it would be sensible. So for me,

1014
00:44:21,200 --> 00:44:23,839
Speaker 2: it's it's Steelers or bust YEP.

1015
00:44:24,160 --> 00:44:27,920
Speaker 1: I completely agree, honestly. So at plus eleven hundred, that

1016
00:44:28,160 --> 00:44:30,600
Speaker 1: is both our twice. How about for the NFC, any

1017
00:44:30,600 --> 00:44:32,800
Speaker 1: teams that you see that you think Roberts I'm pretty

1018
00:44:32,800 --> 00:44:33,200
Speaker 1: good value.

1019
00:44:33,280 --> 00:44:35,600
Speaker 2: Yeah. I like the Eagles at plus five fifty. I

1020
00:44:35,600 --> 00:44:37,640
Speaker 2: actually think that they are the most talented team in

1021
00:44:37,680 --> 00:44:39,719
Speaker 2: the NFC, And there are a lot of really good

1022
00:44:39,719 --> 00:44:43,120
Speaker 2: teams in the NFC. You know, I think right now

1023
00:44:43,200 --> 00:44:45,640
Speaker 2: that the Vikings, I mean, for as talented as a

1024
00:44:45,680 --> 00:44:47,960
Speaker 2: team like the Vikings are, for them to have the

1025
00:44:48,280 --> 00:44:51,279
Speaker 2: three sixth, the seventh longest odds the end, I mean,

1026
00:44:51,280 --> 00:44:53,279
Speaker 2: that says something and.

1027
00:44:52,960 --> 00:44:55,360
Speaker 1: That's plus thirteen hundred. I agree. I agree.

1028
00:44:55,520 --> 00:44:57,839
Speaker 2: It's it's crazy when you when you stack up the

1029
00:44:58,000 --> 00:45:00,239
Speaker 2: you know, the top half of the NFC, and they

1030
00:45:00,239 --> 00:45:02,520
Speaker 2: are and you know it should be a dogfight again.

1031
00:45:03,239 --> 00:45:05,120
Speaker 2: There are gonna be some really really good teams left

1032
00:45:05,120 --> 00:45:07,840
Speaker 2: out of the postseason again this season in the NFC.

1033
00:45:07,880 --> 00:45:10,920
Speaker 2: But the Rams, to me being the front runner in

1034
00:45:10,960 --> 00:45:14,200
Speaker 2: the NFC, I don't think that makes sense. I think

1035
00:45:14,400 --> 00:45:17,080
Speaker 2: Jared Goff, even though he's in an offensive friendly system,

1036
00:45:17,120 --> 00:45:19,680
Speaker 2: today I was talking about him being kind of long

1037
00:45:19,760 --> 00:45:23,280
Speaker 2: at thirty two to one for the MVP, just based

1038
00:45:23,320 --> 00:45:25,319
Speaker 2: off system and the stats is going to put up.

1039
00:45:25,320 --> 00:45:27,480
Speaker 2: I thought that was long. But overall, I think the

1040
00:45:27,560 --> 00:45:30,759
Speaker 2: Rams take a massive step back. And I think the

1041
00:45:30,880 --> 00:45:36,160
Speaker 2: Eagles specifically, when you're talking about championship caliber teams and

1042
00:45:36,840 --> 00:45:39,239
Speaker 2: talent on the roster, I think that they are right

1043
00:45:39,280 --> 00:45:41,719
Speaker 2: up there with the Patriots. I think the coaching stat's great,

1044
00:45:41,719 --> 00:45:44,480
Speaker 2: the analytics departments great, the front office is fantastic. There

1045
00:45:44,520 --> 00:45:48,600
Speaker 2: really aren't any holes on the Philadelphia Eagles as a whole. Obviously,

1046
00:45:48,880 --> 00:45:51,440
Speaker 2: the biggest thing is Carson Wentz and his injury. But

1047
00:45:51,719 --> 00:45:55,760
Speaker 2: obviously I'm not capping a season for the Eagles where

1048
00:45:55,920 --> 00:45:59,200
Speaker 2: Carson Wentz misses games because I can't cap that. But overall,

1049
00:45:59,239 --> 00:46:01,520
Speaker 2: when you look at both sides of the of the

1050
00:46:01,600 --> 00:46:04,680
Speaker 2: team that for that squad, I just I don't see

1051
00:46:04,680 --> 00:46:08,600
Speaker 2: how they don't make a run this season, even with

1052
00:46:08,680 --> 00:46:11,680
Speaker 2: Wentz's injury history. They had another really really good draft.

1053
00:46:11,760 --> 00:46:14,960
Speaker 2: They've had a couple consecutive really really really good drafts,

1054
00:46:14,960 --> 00:46:18,200
Speaker 2: and I just think that they reload and I'm all

1055
00:46:18,239 --> 00:46:23,719
Speaker 2: over Philadelphia futures this season, Division, NFC, super Bowl, you

1056
00:46:23,840 --> 00:46:24,200
Speaker 2: name it.

1057
00:46:25,040 --> 00:46:27,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, they certainly. I mean, look, the organization from top

1058
00:46:27,680 --> 00:46:30,439
Speaker 1: to bottom is extremely well run. At this point, They're

1059
00:46:30,440 --> 00:46:33,720
Speaker 1: on the forefront of everything analytical. I mean, they're odds.

1060
00:46:33,800 --> 00:46:35,880
Speaker 1: I mean, you know, look, the Rams and the Saints

1061
00:46:35,880 --> 00:46:38,840
Speaker 1: are both at plus four fifty. They have the worst odds,

1062
00:46:39,280 --> 00:46:41,360
Speaker 1: and then it's the Eagles at plus five fifty, and

1063
00:46:41,400 --> 00:46:43,280
Speaker 1: then there's a pretty big drop down to the Bears,

1064
00:46:43,320 --> 00:46:45,160
Speaker 1: at plus nine hundred, which I really don't like. But

1065
00:46:45,680 --> 00:46:49,040
Speaker 1: you know, at five point fifty, you know, I think

1066
00:46:49,040 --> 00:46:51,480
Speaker 1: that's a little I think i'd want more to step. Yeah,

1067
00:46:51,520 --> 00:46:53,399
Speaker 1: it's too steep for me a little bit. I get

1068
00:46:53,400 --> 00:46:55,600
Speaker 1: everything you're saying, and they are great, and you know,

1069
00:46:55,680 --> 00:46:58,920
Speaker 1: but look, I'm not even positive that they're going to

1070
00:46:58,960 --> 00:47:00,680
Speaker 1: win the division. I would pick them, of course, to

1071
00:47:00,719 --> 00:47:03,279
Speaker 1: beat the Cowboys. I would. They're the favorites, and they

1072
00:47:03,280 --> 00:47:07,040
Speaker 1: should be, but I don't even feel overly confident in that.

1073
00:47:07,160 --> 00:47:09,239
Speaker 1: And again, you don't want to handicap the injuries, but

1074
00:47:09,320 --> 00:47:12,040
Speaker 1: once you know, look it's two seasons in a row. Now,

1075
00:47:12,320 --> 00:47:14,480
Speaker 1: you have to at least factor that in. So for me,

1076
00:47:14,920 --> 00:47:16,360
Speaker 1: I think the odds are a little short there. I

1077
00:47:16,400 --> 00:47:18,680
Speaker 1: do love the Vikings at plus thirteen hundred. We've talked

1078
00:47:18,719 --> 00:47:21,560
Speaker 1: about them plenty for the same reasons that you mentioned earlier.

1079
00:47:21,640 --> 00:47:24,479
Speaker 1: I also like the Falcons at plus fourteen hundred. Again,

1080
00:47:24,520 --> 00:47:26,640
Speaker 1: I have questions about them, but I do think that

1081
00:47:26,680 --> 00:47:29,000
Speaker 1: if they get into the playoffs. Look, you trust, you know,

1082
00:47:29,040 --> 00:47:31,359
Speaker 1: Matt Ryan's been there. They've shown that they can win

1083
00:47:31,640 --> 00:47:33,880
Speaker 1: and go on a run in the playoffs. And for

1084
00:47:33,920 --> 00:47:36,359
Speaker 1: the same reasons I kind of like the Seahawks at

1085
00:47:36,360 --> 00:47:39,400
Speaker 1: plus fifteen hundred, you can sort of, like with the Patriots,

1086
00:47:39,600 --> 00:47:41,759
Speaker 1: I kind of throw out the personnel that's on the

1087
00:47:41,760 --> 00:47:44,360
Speaker 1: team at this point because Russell Wilson, he just doesn't

1088
00:47:44,360 --> 00:47:47,000
Speaker 1: finish with the losing record. Pete Carroll always seems to

1089
00:47:47,000 --> 00:47:49,520
Speaker 1: squeeze as much juice as he possibly can out of

1090
00:47:49,560 --> 00:47:51,919
Speaker 1: that defense. If the Rams do take a step back,

1091
00:47:51,920 --> 00:47:54,840
Speaker 1: and if this if Seattle can somehow get home field

1092
00:47:54,920 --> 00:47:57,440
Speaker 1: or anything in the playoffs, then they're going to be

1093
00:47:57,480 --> 00:47:59,400
Speaker 1: able to make some noise. So I don't love anybody

1094
00:47:59,480 --> 00:48:02,560
Speaker 1: here either. The conference winners are not really sticking out

1095
00:48:02,560 --> 00:48:04,560
Speaker 1: to me, but that in that band, the Vikings at

1096
00:48:04,560 --> 00:48:07,480
Speaker 1: plus thirteen hundred, the Falcons that plus fourteen hundred, the

1097
00:48:07,480 --> 00:48:09,680
Speaker 1: Seahawks at plus fifteen hundred, that's kind of where I

1098
00:48:09,719 --> 00:48:11,880
Speaker 1: think if I do go in here, that's where i'd be.

1099
00:48:12,120 --> 00:48:14,520
Speaker 2: It's funny because you know, I came into the podcast

1100
00:48:14,640 --> 00:48:16,120
Speaker 2: with you know, a couple of futures here and there,

1101
00:48:16,160 --> 00:48:17,560
Speaker 2: a couple of in totals. I'm gonna walk out of

1102
00:48:17,560 --> 00:48:20,399
Speaker 2: here having all sorts of Vikings futures because you were

1103
00:48:20,520 --> 00:48:24,720
Speaker 2: just talking me into taking this team in the futures market,

1104
00:48:25,000 --> 00:48:26,480
Speaker 2: and the more I look at them more, I'm like,

1105
00:48:26,760 --> 00:48:29,759
Speaker 2: you know what, I'm going to kick myself if this

1106
00:48:29,840 --> 00:48:32,240
Speaker 2: team wins the NFC North because they're gonna do damage

1107
00:48:32,239 --> 00:48:34,760
Speaker 2: in the playoffs and I should probably take a gamble

1108
00:48:34,760 --> 00:48:36,160
Speaker 2: on such a team. And I've seen with such a

1109
00:48:36,200 --> 00:48:38,840
Speaker 2: high ceiling. And maybe it's just the bad taste of

1110
00:48:38,840 --> 00:48:41,719
Speaker 2: my mom from last season, and everybody quick to tell

1111
00:48:41,719 --> 00:48:44,560
Speaker 2: me that Kirk Cousins can't beat a winning team. But man,

1112
00:48:44,600 --> 00:48:46,480
Speaker 2: the more that we talk about it, the more that

1113
00:48:46,520 --> 00:48:48,480
Speaker 2: I like the Vikings in a lot of different areas

1114
00:48:48,480 --> 00:48:49,399
Speaker 2: this season to be.

1115
00:48:49,719 --> 00:48:52,320
Speaker 1: Certainly, when the odds get big like they do for

1116
00:48:52,440 --> 00:48:54,560
Speaker 1: you know, winning the conference or winning the super Bowl,

1117
00:48:54,600 --> 00:48:56,359
Speaker 1: I think that's really where you go after a team

1118
00:48:56,400 --> 00:48:58,359
Speaker 1: like them. So I do expect them to be good

1119
00:48:58,360 --> 00:49:02,480
Speaker 1: this year for sure. So just recap the NFC conference winners.

1120
00:49:02,520 --> 00:49:04,480
Speaker 1: I kind of like the Vikings that you sound like,

1121
00:49:04,520 --> 00:49:04,880
Speaker 1: you you.

1122
00:49:05,840 --> 00:49:08,200
Speaker 2: Know, mark me down for some Vikings.

1123
00:49:07,760 --> 00:49:10,279
Speaker 1: All right, Vikings at plus thirteen hundred, Alex and I

1124
00:49:10,320 --> 00:49:12,560
Speaker 1: are both in. I also kind of like the Falcons

1125
00:49:12,560 --> 00:49:15,480
Speaker 1: of plus fourteen hundred, the Seahawks at plus fifteen hundred,

1126
00:49:15,719 --> 00:49:19,160
Speaker 1: and you like the Eagles at plus five fifty. All right,

1127
00:49:19,320 --> 00:49:21,080
Speaker 1: so now we are going to finish up with our

1128
00:49:21,200 --> 00:49:23,480
Speaker 1: favorite bets for Super Bowl winners. Before we do that,

1129
00:49:23,520 --> 00:49:25,239
Speaker 1: I want to remind everyone we've got about a week

1130
00:49:25,320 --> 00:49:27,480
Speaker 1: left in our August contest where we're giving away a

1131
00:49:27,600 --> 00:49:31,320
Speaker 1: signed Christian McCaffrey Panthers helmet from our friends at Pristine Auction.

1132
00:49:31,600 --> 00:49:33,080
Speaker 1: All you need to do to be entered into the

1133
00:49:33,120 --> 00:49:35,360
Speaker 1: contest is to leave a review for the podcast on

1134
00:49:35,520 --> 00:49:38,560
Speaker 1: iTunes or Stitcher and send a screenshot of that review

1135
00:49:38,600 --> 00:49:41,680
Speaker 1: to contest at Bettingpros dot com. That is all. At

1136
00:49:41,680 --> 00:49:43,840
Speaker 1: the end of August, we're gonna randomly select a winner

1137
00:49:43,880 --> 00:49:46,280
Speaker 1: and again the reviews have come in and thanks for that, guys.

1138
00:49:46,280 --> 00:49:49,120
Speaker 1: But remember it is a new podcast and this contest

1139
00:49:49,160 --> 00:49:50,919
Speaker 1: is not going to have a zillion entries, so you've

1140
00:49:50,920 --> 00:49:53,680
Speaker 1: got a legitimate chance to win this. Just screenshot your

1141
00:49:53,680 --> 00:49:56,480
Speaker 1: review for the podcast and send it into contest at

1142
00:49:56,480 --> 00:49:59,160
Speaker 1: betting Pros dot com. All right, let's finish it up.

1143
00:49:59,360 --> 00:50:01,000
Speaker 1: I mean, should we all take the Patriots here to

1144
00:50:01,040 --> 00:50:02,920
Speaker 1: win the Super Bowl at plus seven hundred and be

1145
00:50:03,000 --> 00:50:04,520
Speaker 1: done with them? Or what what do you want to do?

1146
00:50:05,200 --> 00:50:07,120
Speaker 2: I guess, I guess you have to give me the

1147
00:50:07,160 --> 00:50:08,880
Speaker 2: Eagles right now and plus thirty.

1148
00:50:08,920 --> 00:50:10,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, you're I mean, if you just pick the Eagles,

1149
00:50:10,719 --> 00:50:11,319
Speaker 1: you're doing it right.

1150
00:50:11,360 --> 00:50:15,840
Speaker 2: There's something wrong. Then my analysis is absolutely flawed if

1151
00:50:15,880 --> 00:50:17,880
Speaker 2: I don't do that. But yeah, I'll take the Eagles

1152
00:50:17,880 --> 00:50:20,440
Speaker 2: at thirteen to one. And there were some numbers out

1153
00:50:20,440 --> 00:50:22,839
Speaker 2: there earlier. I believe it was twenty two to one

1154
00:50:22,920 --> 00:50:25,480
Speaker 2: or fifteen to one, something a lot longer than that

1155
00:50:25,560 --> 00:50:27,920
Speaker 2: and more attractive prices. But even at thirteen to one,

1156
00:50:28,120 --> 00:50:31,080
Speaker 2: I'd still take the Eagles to win the Super Bowl.

1157
00:50:31,120 --> 00:50:33,200
Speaker 2: And I've never had a lot of luck in the

1158
00:50:33,960 --> 00:50:38,240
Speaker 2: futures market. Win totals have been okay, probably split fifty

1159
00:50:38,239 --> 00:50:41,320
Speaker 2: to fifty and I've probably juiced out, But I haven't

1160
00:50:41,360 --> 00:50:44,960
Speaker 2: had much luck with conference winners Super Bowl in the past,

1161
00:50:45,040 --> 00:50:49,080
Speaker 2: and I don't expect to this season again with the Eagles.

1162
00:50:49,080 --> 00:50:51,440
Speaker 2: But yeah, they're the pick right now at thirteen to

1163
00:50:51,440 --> 00:50:51,920
Speaker 2: one for me.

1164
00:50:52,680 --> 00:50:55,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely, you're gonna be all in on them for

1165
00:50:55,120 --> 00:50:56,960
Speaker 1: me again and not to go back to it. But

1166
00:50:57,000 --> 00:50:59,319
Speaker 1: for the same reason, I do like the Vikings at

1167
00:50:59,320 --> 00:51:01,680
Speaker 1: plus twenty eight. I think those are pretty good odds

1168
00:51:01,680 --> 00:51:04,200
Speaker 1: given their upside. But I've held one team back, and

1169
00:51:04,239 --> 00:51:06,920
Speaker 1: I briefly mentioned them earlier, but I you know, the

1170
00:51:06,960 --> 00:51:10,040
Speaker 1: odds are long, and I like it. Which are the Panthers.

1171
00:51:10,400 --> 00:51:14,279
Speaker 1: Panthers at plus forty eight hundred. Look, they are a

1172
00:51:14,280 --> 00:51:16,719
Speaker 1: good team. It is about Cam Newton's health and that's

1173
00:51:16,760 --> 00:51:18,799
Speaker 1: really it. People kind of gloss over it last year,

1174
00:51:18,800 --> 00:51:22,480
Speaker 1: but North Turner really had a solid impact on the offense.

1175
00:51:22,520 --> 00:51:25,560
Speaker 1: They really improved Cam's efficiency. I remember they were six

1176
00:51:25,600 --> 00:51:28,200
Speaker 1: and two last year before he got hurt, and they

1177
00:51:28,200 --> 00:51:30,480
Speaker 1: were really unlucky. They were two and seven in one

1178
00:51:30,480 --> 00:51:33,360
Speaker 1: score games last year. The defense is still strong. I

1179
00:51:33,440 --> 00:51:35,840
Speaker 1: also like them at twenty one hundred to win the NFC,

1180
00:51:35,920 --> 00:51:37,480
Speaker 1: by the way, I was just sort of holding them

1181
00:51:37,480 --> 00:51:40,320
Speaker 1: back for my big special But at forty eight hundred,

1182
00:51:40,400 --> 00:51:44,040
Speaker 1: I mean you, they can really be a really, really

1183
00:51:44,080 --> 00:51:46,560
Speaker 1: really good team this year. And I think if they are,

1184
00:51:46,600 --> 00:51:49,239
Speaker 1: and if Cam stays healthy, and if that defense is

1185
00:51:49,280 --> 00:51:51,680
Speaker 1: as strong as we expect, and again they need to

1186
00:51:51,719 --> 00:51:53,520
Speaker 1: avoid injuries for the most part, but if they do,

1187
00:51:53,719 --> 00:51:56,200
Speaker 1: they're one of the teams that you can For me anyway,

1188
00:51:56,200 --> 00:51:58,279
Speaker 1: I could easily see them being elite, sort of like

1189
00:51:58,320 --> 00:52:00,520
Speaker 1: the Vikings, where you're sort of you're like this is

1190
00:52:00,520 --> 00:52:03,200
Speaker 1: a team. I could see them not being great, but

1191
00:52:03,280 --> 00:52:05,520
Speaker 1: I do see a path where, if things go well,

1192
00:52:05,600 --> 00:52:07,759
Speaker 1: they could be really elite. So I think when you're

1193
00:52:07,760 --> 00:52:10,319
Speaker 1: getting forty plus forty eight hundred, I mean that for

1194
00:52:10,400 --> 00:52:12,319
Speaker 1: me is something where I'm definitely gonna have a little

1195
00:52:12,320 --> 00:52:12,680
Speaker 1: action on.

1196
00:52:12,960 --> 00:52:14,799
Speaker 2: Yeah. No, it's funny you say that, Dan. I mean,

1197
00:52:14,840 --> 00:52:18,000
Speaker 2: imagine if last season when where they start six and

1198
00:52:18,040 --> 00:52:20,480
Speaker 2: two and I think that they lost however many games

1199
00:52:20,480 --> 00:52:22,800
Speaker 2: to close out the season, if you play that season

1200
00:52:22,840 --> 00:52:25,640
Speaker 2: in reverse and they actually end the season on a

1201
00:52:25,719 --> 00:52:28,160
Speaker 2: high note, I'm curious to see, you know, to wonder

1202
00:52:28,200 --> 00:52:31,240
Speaker 2: how the market would react to that, and if it's

1203
00:52:31,400 --> 00:52:33,080
Speaker 2: you know, the way that it is now because of

1204
00:52:33,120 --> 00:52:35,440
Speaker 2: how they ended the season and not how they started it.

1205
00:52:35,520 --> 00:52:38,560
Speaker 2: But again, I think it's funny because my stick with

1206
00:52:38,600 --> 00:52:41,360
Speaker 2: the Carolina Panthers is I can't bet them because I

1207
00:52:41,440 --> 00:52:43,360
Speaker 2: never know what I'm gonna get. You know, if I

1208
00:52:43,400 --> 00:52:45,799
Speaker 2: take the over, Cam's you know, getting stuffed on fourth

1209
00:52:45,840 --> 00:52:47,560
Speaker 2: and one, and if I take the under, it's thirty

1210
00:52:47,560 --> 00:52:49,800
Speaker 2: five to twenty one and a half and Camp's going off.

1211
00:52:49,840 --> 00:52:52,520
Speaker 2: He's ripping his shirt off, he's handing towels to gets

1212
00:52:52,560 --> 00:52:55,280
Speaker 2: for his sixth touchdown of the day. But yeah, Carolina

1213
00:52:55,360 --> 00:52:58,080
Speaker 2: is just a team that I can never really figure out,

1214
00:52:58,400 --> 00:53:01,200
Speaker 2: and so to me, they're kind of hands off, at

1215
00:53:01,280 --> 00:53:03,240
Speaker 2: least for right now. I'm sure once the season starts,

1216
00:53:03,200 --> 00:53:05,360
Speaker 2: There're gonna be some spots where I'm gonna be, you know,

1217
00:53:05,560 --> 00:53:09,160
Speaker 2: taking some some totals and whatnot, because I've loved to

1218
00:53:09,200 --> 00:53:11,200
Speaker 2: play Carolina totals in the past, and I'm sure that

1219
00:53:11,239 --> 00:53:13,320
Speaker 2: I will fall into the trap of doing that again

1220
00:53:13,400 --> 00:53:18,080
Speaker 2: because I have no self will. But but but to me, yeah,

1221
00:53:18,360 --> 00:53:20,520
Speaker 2: there's there's so many question marks for Carolina to me,

1222
00:53:20,600 --> 00:53:22,920
Speaker 2: especially with Cam with his shoulder, and you know, I

1223
00:53:22,960 --> 00:53:24,759
Speaker 2: don't want to read too much into the lines because

1224
00:53:24,800 --> 00:53:28,000
Speaker 2: then I start overtaking everything. But to me, once you

1225
00:53:28,680 --> 00:53:30,680
Speaker 2: once you have a team that you can never really project,

1226
00:53:30,680 --> 00:53:32,680
Speaker 2: and then you have a starting quarterback whose health is

1227
00:53:32,680 --> 00:53:35,319
Speaker 2: a concern, to me, that's that's when all bets are off.

1228
00:53:35,360 --> 00:53:38,040
Speaker 2: So the reason I didn't talk about Carolina was because

1229
00:53:38,440 --> 00:53:41,000
Speaker 2: to me, I just I can't get a read on them.

1230
00:53:41,440 --> 00:53:44,319
Speaker 1: No, honestly, I do think that's fair, except when we're

1231
00:53:44,360 --> 00:53:46,920
Speaker 1: talking here where you're talking about the big odds, because

1232
00:53:47,000 --> 00:53:49,719
Speaker 1: if things go well, I could see this, you know,

1233
00:53:49,760 --> 00:53:52,400
Speaker 1: because realistically, when you think about it, there just aren't

1234
00:53:52,400 --> 00:53:54,000
Speaker 1: that many teams that you can see winning the Super

1235
00:53:54,040 --> 00:53:56,280
Speaker 1: Bowl there, I mean. And again you pointed out earlier

1236
00:53:56,320 --> 00:53:58,719
Speaker 1: when we joked about the Lions. You never know. It's

1237
00:53:58,719 --> 00:54:02,759
Speaker 1: the NFL. Anything really happen. But realistically, to me, the

1238
00:54:02,800 --> 00:54:05,279
Speaker 1: Panthers are a handful of teams where if I draw

1239
00:54:05,400 --> 00:54:07,920
Speaker 1: things up and I make the best case scenario, can

1240
00:54:07,960 --> 00:54:10,120
Speaker 1: I see the Panthers winning the Super Bowl? I really

1241
00:54:10,200 --> 00:54:12,040
Speaker 1: really can. So they're not a team whore. I'm like,

1242
00:54:12,239 --> 00:54:13,879
Speaker 1: I want to bet them to win the Division because

1243
00:54:13,920 --> 00:54:15,759
Speaker 1: I don't like the when we're talking at plus forty

1244
00:54:15,760 --> 00:54:18,719
Speaker 1: eight hundred, to me, that's something where you're able to

1245
00:54:18,760 --> 00:54:20,279
Speaker 1: go in on. So I'll go into that and when

1246
00:54:20,280 --> 00:54:22,319
Speaker 1: they win, I will treat you to like a steak

1247
00:54:22,360 --> 00:54:23,600
Speaker 1: dinner or something like that. How about that?

1248
00:54:23,719 --> 00:54:27,520
Speaker 2: If the Panthers, the Panthers win the Super Bowl and

1249
00:54:27,560 --> 00:54:29,839
Speaker 2: the Texans go four and twelve, then I will give

1250
00:54:29,880 --> 00:54:32,400
Speaker 2: you that you got tokay at least one of those.

1251
00:54:32,600 --> 00:54:35,040
Speaker 1: All right, all right, I will definitely take that then.

1252
00:54:35,040 --> 00:54:37,880
Speaker 1: All right, So just just a sum up, my favorite

1253
00:54:37,920 --> 00:54:40,440
Speaker 1: for the Super Bowl is the Panthers at plus eighteen hundred.

1254
00:54:40,680 --> 00:54:42,560
Speaker 1: You like the Eagles of plus thirteen hundred, and we

1255
00:54:42,640 --> 00:54:45,279
Speaker 1: both obviously are closet Vikings fans, Yes, and we would

1256
00:54:45,320 --> 00:54:47,120
Speaker 1: probably get in on them at plus twenty.

1257
00:54:47,440 --> 00:54:49,399
Speaker 2: That's seven to nine. Season is gonna be so good.

1258
00:54:49,480 --> 00:54:51,279
Speaker 1: I can't I know we're gonna love it. What we

1259
00:54:51,440 --> 00:54:54,120
Speaker 1: visited would be like we've never said that. Check the tape.

1260
00:54:54,160 --> 00:54:56,400
Speaker 2: We called them a low floor team.

1261
00:54:56,480 --> 00:54:59,359
Speaker 1: We knew obviously, we always knew this. Yeah, all right,

1262
00:54:59,360 --> 00:55:01,760
Speaker 1: Well that's gonna do for today's show. Alex. Remind everyone

1263
00:55:01,800 --> 00:55:03,640
Speaker 1: where they can find you on Twitter so I don't

1264
00:55:03,640 --> 00:55:04,799
Speaker 1: have to spell your last name again.

1265
00:55:04,840 --> 00:55:07,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, no problem at Alex, kaloj that's a l e X.

1266
00:55:07,680 --> 00:55:09,920
Speaker 2: That's the easy part. And then k O l O

1267
00:55:10,040 --> 00:55:10,960
Speaker 2: d z i e J.

1268
00:55:11,719 --> 00:55:13,520
Speaker 1: Well. I really enjoyed having you on. I hope we

1269
00:55:13,560 --> 00:55:15,000
Speaker 1: can do it again during the season.

1270
00:55:15,080 --> 00:55:16,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, Dan, thanks so much for having me on, man,

1271
00:55:16,600 --> 00:55:17,600
Speaker 2: I really appreciate it.

1272
00:55:17,800 --> 00:55:19,600
Speaker 1: Absolutely, and I want to again say thank you to

1273
00:55:19,640 --> 00:55:22,560
Speaker 1: the sponsors of today's show. Play MGM, where you can

1274
00:55:22,719 --> 00:55:25,280
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1275
00:55:25,440 --> 00:55:28,120
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1276
00:55:28,239 --> 00:55:31,040
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1277
00:55:31,080 --> 00:55:33,959
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1278
00:55:34,040 --> 00:55:36,920
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1279
00:55:36,920 --> 00:55:39,799
Speaker 1: the promo code Betting Pros. Hope you enjoyed today's show.

1280
00:55:39,840 --> 00:55:41,440
Speaker 1: We're going to be back next week with some more

1281
00:55:41,440 --> 00:55:44,319
Speaker 1: betting advice for the upcoming NFL season. I'll talk to

1282
00:55:44,320 --> 00:55:44,600
Speaker 1: you then

1283
00:56:05,440 --> 00:56:11,000
Speaker 2: Have Hamper to her family