1
00:00:02,920 --> 00:00:10,600
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the

2
00:00:10,640 --> 00:00:14,560
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch Just Live weekdays at

3
00:00:14,600 --> 00:00:17,759
Speaker 1: noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then Roudoo with the Bloomberg

4
00:00:17,800 --> 00:00:21,200
Speaker 1: Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts,

5
00:00:21,400 --> 00:00:25,320
Speaker 1: or watch us live on YouTube.

6
00:00:25,920 --> 00:00:29,320
Speaker 2: Welcome to the Monday edition of Balance of Power. Yeah,

7
00:00:29,440 --> 00:00:33,560
Speaker 2: Happy Monday, we got news. I'm Joe, Matthew and Washington.

8
00:00:33,600 --> 00:00:35,360
Speaker 2: I'm glad you're with us here on the radio, on

9
00:00:35,400 --> 00:00:37,400
Speaker 2: the satellite, and on YouTube, where you can find us

10
00:00:37,440 --> 00:00:40,360
Speaker 2: right now if you search Bloomberg Global News, find our

11
00:00:40,440 --> 00:00:43,560
Speaker 2: live stream and join me here inside the terminal because

12
00:00:43,600 --> 00:00:44,559
Speaker 2: we've got the budget.

13
00:00:44,560 --> 00:00:45,360
Speaker 3: It just dropped.

14
00:00:45,960 --> 00:00:47,559
Speaker 2: We're going to get into this a bit more with

15
00:00:47,600 --> 00:00:49,800
Speaker 2: Douglas holtz econ coming up in a few moments, but

16
00:00:49,840 --> 00:00:51,760
Speaker 2: I want to give you the news as investors have

17
00:00:51,840 --> 00:00:55,720
Speaker 2: been waiting for this, remembering the president's budget is a

18
00:00:56,680 --> 00:01:01,920
Speaker 2: statement of values seven vere trillion. There's your headline dollars

19
00:01:01,960 --> 00:01:05,240
Speaker 2: fiscally year twenty twenty five. We haven't figured out the

20
00:01:05,240 --> 00:01:08,280
Speaker 2: one we're living in right now, but we're on to

21
00:01:08,360 --> 00:01:11,440
Speaker 2: twenty five, six hundred and twenty one billion dollars domestic

22
00:01:11,440 --> 00:01:15,840
Speaker 2: discretionary spending deficits would fall three trillion dollars if they

23
00:01:15,880 --> 00:01:22,280
Speaker 2: approved taxes on the rich and corporations. US debt hitting

24
00:01:22,319 --> 00:01:24,880
Speaker 2: forty five trillion dollars in a decade, the President is asking,

25
00:01:24,880 --> 00:01:27,640
Speaker 2: here we go eight hundred and ninety five billion dollars

26
00:01:27,680 --> 00:01:33,080
Speaker 2: for defense related programs. We'll have much more on this

27
00:01:33,280 --> 00:01:35,959
Speaker 2: as we work our way through the hour here, as

28
00:01:36,000 --> 00:01:38,120
Speaker 2: the White House says, indeed, it will reduce the deficit

29
00:01:38,160 --> 00:01:40,040
Speaker 2: by about three trillion dollars, but you've got to pass

30
00:01:40,080 --> 00:01:42,600
Speaker 2: some tax hikes to make that happen, and we can't

31
00:01:42,640 --> 00:01:47,840
Speaker 2: even pass an actual budget. Meantime, the President making news

32
00:01:47,880 --> 00:01:52,000
Speaker 2: over the weekend on Israel. Ramadan began yesterday, and as

33
00:01:52,040 --> 00:01:54,240
Speaker 2: you remember, walking into the State of the Union last week,

34
00:01:54,240 --> 00:01:56,559
Speaker 2: the hope was to have a cease fire in place

35
00:01:56,640 --> 00:01:59,800
Speaker 2: by then. It did not happen. And the President now

36
00:01:59,800 --> 00:02:03,680
Speaker 2: we're referring to red lines when it comes to Israel,

37
00:02:03,720 --> 00:02:06,080
Speaker 2: warning Benjamin Netanya, who is our reading the headline, not

38
00:02:06,160 --> 00:02:10,120
Speaker 2: to attack Rafa as Ramadan begins, and that is where

39
00:02:10,160 --> 00:02:14,320
Speaker 2: we start our conversation with Ian Marlow, Bloomberg senior reporter

40
00:02:14,440 --> 00:02:16,880
Speaker 2: covering diplomacy and Boy we could use them now. Ian,

41
00:02:16,880 --> 00:02:18,960
Speaker 2: it's great to see you. Thank you for making us

42
00:02:19,000 --> 00:02:22,040
Speaker 2: part of your Monday. We start talking about red lines,

43
00:02:22,040 --> 00:02:25,160
Speaker 2: we think about Barack Obama and Syria. The messaging here

44
00:02:25,240 --> 00:02:27,400
Speaker 2: is getting pretty complicated. What's the President doing.

45
00:02:28,120 --> 00:02:31,400
Speaker 4: I think he's kind of grasping at straws to some degree.

46
00:02:31,440 --> 00:02:35,720
Speaker 4: I think the US is facing, you know, several months

47
00:02:35,720 --> 00:02:40,919
Speaker 4: into this five months into this conflict, the real possibility

48
00:02:40,919 --> 00:02:44,239
Speaker 4: that they just don't have as much leverage over Israel as.

49
00:02:44,040 --> 00:02:45,400
Speaker 5: They would like.

50
00:02:45,639 --> 00:02:48,600
Speaker 4: They're air dropping aid when there's plenty of land borders

51
00:02:48,639 --> 00:02:52,399
Speaker 4: with Gaza. They're now talking about, as President Biden said

52
00:02:52,400 --> 00:02:54,800
Speaker 4: in the State of the Union, they're going to be

53
00:02:54,880 --> 00:02:58,880
Speaker 4: creating a temporary peer to bring in aid by sea

54
00:02:59,320 --> 00:03:04,160
Speaker 4: sort of everything, uh, accept pressuring Israel to the degree

55
00:03:04,160 --> 00:03:07,320
Speaker 4: that would actually, uh, you know, bring about significant change

56
00:03:07,320 --> 00:03:10,680
Speaker 4: in the humanitarian situation, which is getting incredibly dire with

57
00:03:10,840 --> 00:03:13,079
Speaker 4: you know, famine, starvation.

58
00:03:12,720 --> 00:03:13,840
Speaker 5: And the rest of it looming.

59
00:03:13,960 --> 00:03:16,640
Speaker 2: So now it's like public diplomacy. He's speaking through the

60
00:03:16,720 --> 00:03:20,639
Speaker 2: media a hot mic moment at the State of the

61
00:03:20,760 --> 00:03:23,359
Speaker 2: Union when he said that to Jerry now that I'm

62
00:03:23,360 --> 00:03:25,320
Speaker 2: gonna have a come to Jesus meeting with Pebe.

63
00:03:25,440 --> 00:03:27,080
Speaker 3: Did he want that to go out to the world.

64
00:03:27,560 --> 00:03:29,760
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's hard to know. It's hard to know with

65
00:03:29,760 --> 00:03:32,359
Speaker 4: with with both Biden and nan Yah who here, because

66
00:03:32,360 --> 00:03:36,720
Speaker 4: they are they're both dealing with really uh intense international

67
00:03:36,720 --> 00:03:40,400
Speaker 4: and domestic situations. I mean, Biden's facing an election here

68
00:03:40,800 --> 00:03:42,880
Speaker 4: and YEAHO will face an election as soon as the

69
00:03:42,880 --> 00:03:46,000
Speaker 4: war ends. He's got people in his far right coalition

70
00:03:46,200 --> 00:03:50,240
Speaker 4: that want even tougher stance on you knows, a no

71
00:03:50,400 --> 00:03:53,200
Speaker 4: aid getting in, you know, crushing Hamas, you know, going

72
00:03:53,200 --> 00:03:55,800
Speaker 4: into Rafa where there's all you know, more than a

73
00:03:55,800 --> 00:04:00,720
Speaker 4: million civilians sheltering. Uh, It's it's a complicated right now.

74
00:04:00,760 --> 00:04:03,880
Speaker 4: And I think the harsh words and rhetoric we're seeing

75
00:04:03,920 --> 00:04:07,600
Speaker 4: now is an example of that behind the scenes diplomacy

76
00:04:08,280 --> 00:04:11,920
Speaker 4: failing to take hold, and that diplomacy, the hostage talks,

77
00:04:12,280 --> 00:04:13,680
Speaker 4: the talks about what happens in.

78
00:04:13,640 --> 00:04:14,920
Speaker 5: Gaza the day after.

79
00:04:15,440 --> 00:04:18,000
Speaker 4: All of that is continuing, but all of it can

80
00:04:18,040 --> 00:04:22,520
Speaker 4: still founder on beb basically saying no.

81
00:04:22,800 --> 00:04:26,719
Speaker 2: To what extent does Ramadan factor into the chances of

82
00:04:26,760 --> 00:04:30,680
Speaker 2: a ceasefire happening now? Does this put talks on ice.

83
00:04:30,440 --> 00:04:33,240
Speaker 4: For a month or will they continue at the moment,

84
00:04:33,400 --> 00:04:37,520
Speaker 4: I think privately, US officials are thinking that Hamas is

85
00:04:37,600 --> 00:04:41,360
Speaker 4: going to wait a little bit until Ramadan rolls out

86
00:04:41,400 --> 00:04:45,800
Speaker 4: a tiny bit so they can see whether that, you know,

87
00:04:45,880 --> 00:04:49,360
Speaker 4: that little space will allow the region to heat up.

88
00:04:50,040 --> 00:04:52,520
Speaker 4: You know, maybe you we'll see protests, Maybe we'll see protests,

89
00:04:52,880 --> 00:04:54,920
Speaker 4: you know, in the West Bank or across the region,

90
00:04:55,080 --> 00:04:58,520
Speaker 4: perhaps more violence, and that might put pressure on Israel,

91
00:04:58,880 --> 00:05:01,359
Speaker 4: the US and allies to try and get to the

92
00:05:01,400 --> 00:05:03,840
Speaker 4: table more. That is the sense from the West about

93
00:05:03,839 --> 00:05:05,559
Speaker 4: what they think Hamas is doing. But at the moment,

94
00:05:06,040 --> 00:05:09,520
Speaker 4: no one really knows. And I think, you know, obviously

95
00:05:09,800 --> 00:05:13,080
Speaker 4: Biden had hoped, you know, for a Monday or two

96
00:05:13,120 --> 00:05:16,239
Speaker 4: ago for this hostage deal to be done. Still not done,

97
00:05:16,360 --> 00:05:18,000
Speaker 4: and it doesn't look like it's going to be done

98
00:05:18,040 --> 00:05:20,080
Speaker 4: in time for I mean, definitely not in time for Ramana.

99
00:05:20,360 --> 00:05:24,560
Speaker 2: In the beginning, just lastly, Ian there was a big

100
00:05:24,600 --> 00:05:28,880
Speaker 2: supplemental budget request that was mostly geared toward Ukraine but

101
00:05:28,920 --> 00:05:32,000
Speaker 2: had billions for Israel. Is that off the table now?

102
00:05:32,320 --> 00:05:34,520
Speaker 2: Are we still going to send that money if it's

103
00:05:34,600 --> 00:05:35,279
Speaker 2: ever approved?

104
00:05:35,640 --> 00:05:37,599
Speaker 4: I think the thing is now they're sending a lot

105
00:05:37,640 --> 00:05:40,880
Speaker 4: of military aid sort of below the threshold where they

106
00:05:40,880 --> 00:05:43,600
Speaker 4: need congressional approval, so a lot of that has still

107
00:05:43,640 --> 00:05:46,240
Speaker 4: been going on. I think that's sort of nuts and bolts,

108
00:05:46,279 --> 00:05:49,200
Speaker 4: you know, repairs, you know, extra equipment and things like that.

109
00:05:49,640 --> 00:05:51,559
Speaker 4: I don't think it's clear exactly what's going to happen

110
00:05:51,560 --> 00:05:54,919
Speaker 4: with that on, you know, in terms of the broader funding.

111
00:05:55,080 --> 00:05:57,119
Speaker 4: But I don't think there's any sense at the moment

112
00:05:57,160 --> 00:06:00,680
Speaker 4: that Israel is in dire strait, unlike you. Right, Yeah,

113
00:06:00,720 --> 00:06:02,440
Speaker 4: there's a very oversation, Yeah exactly.

114
00:06:02,560 --> 00:06:04,320
Speaker 2: I'm glad you could come talk to us Ian Marlow,

115
00:06:04,400 --> 00:06:06,880
Speaker 2: Bloomberg senior reporter covering diplomacy. Look for him on the

116
00:06:06,960 --> 00:06:09,960
Speaker 2: terminal and online as the President draws a red line

117
00:06:09,960 --> 00:06:10,279
Speaker 2: and Israel.

118
00:06:10,320 --> 00:06:11,080
Speaker 3: It's an important moment.

119
00:06:11,120 --> 00:06:13,279
Speaker 2: I'm glad you could share it with us Ian with

120
00:06:13,360 --> 00:06:15,800
Speaker 2: great reporting as always here at Bloomberg News.

121
00:06:15,839 --> 00:06:17,200
Speaker 3: I'm Joe, Matthew and Washington.

122
00:06:17,640 --> 00:06:20,200
Speaker 2: Turning back to the budget that just dropped, and this

123
00:06:20,320 --> 00:06:22,800
Speaker 2: is the day we've been waiting for, remembering, of course,

124
00:06:22,839 --> 00:06:26,039
Speaker 2: that this is not the budget that will pass. It's

125
00:06:26,240 --> 00:06:28,600
Speaker 2: not only coming from the White House before Congress gets

126
00:06:28,680 --> 00:06:29,960
Speaker 2: its hands on it. But we're in the middle of

127
00:06:30,000 --> 00:06:33,800
Speaker 2: a campaign season, so all of this is as we

128
00:06:33,880 --> 00:06:38,920
Speaker 2: hear every year a statement of values. The question is

129
00:06:38,960 --> 00:06:42,200
Speaker 2: can any of this get through the House and the Senate?

130
00:06:42,360 --> 00:06:46,160
Speaker 2: Could this in fact be the framework the skeleton of

131
00:06:46,160 --> 00:06:49,440
Speaker 2: a budget. Here's an even crazier question. Will we have

132
00:06:49,480 --> 00:06:52,600
Speaker 2: a budget in twenty twenty five? Still eleven found one

133
00:06:52,640 --> 00:06:56,800
Speaker 2: in twenty four Douglas Holzekeen used to do this for

134
00:06:56,839 --> 00:06:59,440
Speaker 2: a living when he was, of course chief economists the

135
00:06:59,440 --> 00:07:02,840
Speaker 2: Presidents of Economic Advisors. He's now president the American Action

136
00:07:03,000 --> 00:07:05,080
Speaker 2: Forum and joins us Douglass, It's.

137
00:07:04,920 --> 00:07:06,560
Speaker 3: Great to see you. Happy budget day.

138
00:07:07,160 --> 00:07:09,520
Speaker 2: I specifically asked for you so we could get your

139
00:07:09,520 --> 00:07:11,200
Speaker 2: read on this, and I'm glad you could join. The

140
00:07:11,240 --> 00:07:13,400
Speaker 2: headlines are just rolling, and I want to just let

141
00:07:13,400 --> 00:07:15,840
Speaker 2: everybody know that this came out at noon. So Douglas

142
00:07:15,880 --> 00:07:18,240
Speaker 2: hasn't exactly been able to pour over this with the

143
00:07:18,280 --> 00:07:22,720
Speaker 2: Green Visor. Just broadly though, Douglas, how do you look

144
00:07:22,760 --> 00:07:26,880
Speaker 2: at a budget from the administration? What parts are you

145
00:07:27,000 --> 00:07:30,600
Speaker 2: looking for to get a sense of what might happen

146
00:07:30,640 --> 00:07:33,520
Speaker 2: to the actual spending debate here in Washington, not the campaign.

147
00:07:35,280 --> 00:07:37,040
Speaker 6: Well, I think there are two big things you look

148
00:07:37,080 --> 00:07:41,160
Speaker 6: for in a budget. Number one, how much depsit reduction

149
00:07:41,240 --> 00:07:44,520
Speaker 6: do you get it takes something like eight trillion dollars

150
00:07:44,520 --> 00:07:47,960
Speaker 6: over the next ten years to stabilize debt relative to GDP.

151
00:07:49,040 --> 00:07:51,480
Speaker 6: This budget won't contain eight trillion dollars steps at reduction,

152
00:07:51,600 --> 00:07:54,000
Speaker 6: so we're still going to see the debt rising and

153
00:07:54,120 --> 00:07:57,560
Speaker 6: rising more rapidly than the economy. Second thing you look

154
00:07:57,600 --> 00:08:00,640
Speaker 6: for is what steps are being taken to slow the

155
00:08:00,720 --> 00:08:03,480
Speaker 6: growth rates of so Sucre and Medicare. We're going to

156
00:08:03,520 --> 00:08:06,480
Speaker 6: spend about eighty two trillion dollars over the next ten years.

157
00:08:07,040 --> 00:08:09,680
Speaker 6: Nearly thirty five trillion of that will be so Screa Medicare.

158
00:08:09,760 --> 00:08:12,240
Speaker 6: Those are the big programs in the budget. They grow

159
00:08:12,320 --> 00:08:15,000
Speaker 6: faster than everything else. They grow faster than revenues, possibly

160
00:08:15,080 --> 00:08:17,440
Speaker 6: will seven percent for Medicare, five and a half for

161
00:08:17,520 --> 00:08:20,560
Speaker 6: SOB security. This budget won't contain anything that's going to

162
00:08:20,600 --> 00:08:23,360
Speaker 6: slow the growth of subscurity and Medicare. So it's a

163
00:08:23,480 --> 00:08:26,320
Speaker 6: statement of campaign values, but it is not a serious

164
00:08:26,360 --> 00:08:27,200
Speaker 6: fiscal document.

165
00:08:29,160 --> 00:08:32,760
Speaker 2: Wants to raise taxes. We've heard this before from President Biden.

166
00:08:32,840 --> 00:08:36,480
Speaker 2: Raising taxes specifically on the wealthy billionaires would get a

167
00:08:36,520 --> 00:08:37,800
Speaker 2: minimum twenty five percent.

168
00:08:37,880 --> 00:08:39,800
Speaker 3: It wants corporate taxes higher, and that.

169
00:08:39,960 --> 00:08:44,480
Speaker 2: Is the justification for lower deficits in this plan, Douglas.

170
00:08:44,600 --> 00:08:47,920
Speaker 2: They say deficits would fall three trillion dollars with these

171
00:08:48,240 --> 00:08:49,240
Speaker 2: tax hikes approved.

172
00:08:49,320 --> 00:08:52,000
Speaker 3: But we all know that is not going to happen, right.

173
00:08:53,679 --> 00:08:56,679
Speaker 6: No, they want to raise the corporate rate up to

174
00:08:56,760 --> 00:09:00,199
Speaker 6: twenty eight percent. The trouble with that, of course, say,

175
00:09:00,280 --> 00:09:02,679
Speaker 6: since it was cut down to twenty one percent, we

176
00:09:02,760 --> 00:09:05,760
Speaker 6: haven't lost the headquarters to Yes Corporation, and we used

177
00:09:05,760 --> 00:09:08,360
Speaker 6: to lose about ten a year, and so that problem

178
00:09:08,440 --> 00:09:10,520
Speaker 6: got fixed down that they're now threatening done fix it.

179
00:09:10,720 --> 00:09:13,719
Speaker 6: I don't think Congress would go along. They want to

180
00:09:13,800 --> 00:09:17,000
Speaker 6: join the international twenty one percent twenty percent minimum tax.

181
00:09:17,480 --> 00:09:20,600
Speaker 6: Congress has show non interest in that, and they want

182
00:09:20,640 --> 00:09:24,719
Speaker 6: to raise this book income alternative tax from fifteen to

183
00:09:24,800 --> 00:09:28,360
Speaker 6: twenty one percent. You will recall that the Treasury threw

184
00:09:28,440 --> 00:09:30,200
Speaker 6: up its hands last year and said we're not going

185
00:09:30,280 --> 00:09:32,160
Speaker 6: to collect this fifteen percent tax. We don't know how.

186
00:09:32,840 --> 00:09:36,480
Speaker 6: So that's hardly reassuring if you're going to make the

187
00:09:36,559 --> 00:09:38,240
Speaker 6: rate higher and you still haven't collected a dime in

188
00:09:38,280 --> 00:09:41,240
Speaker 6: the last time around. All in all, these are you know,

189
00:09:41,640 --> 00:09:43,959
Speaker 6: making the point that we want to tax corporations, We

190
00:09:44,000 --> 00:09:48,040
Speaker 6: want to tax affluent individuals, but they're not poles that

191
00:09:48,080 --> 00:09:48,960
Speaker 6: are likely to get over.

192
00:09:48,920 --> 00:09:49,520
Speaker 5: The finish line.

193
00:09:51,720 --> 00:09:54,680
Speaker 2: Here's your reality check. And as I read further down,

194
00:09:55,000 --> 00:09:57,240
Speaker 2: Douglas hold Zeke and the President is calling on Congress

195
00:09:57,360 --> 00:09:59,719
Speaker 2: to apply his cap. It's a two thousand dollars cap

196
00:09:59,760 --> 00:10:03,839
Speaker 2: on rug costs thirty five dollars insulin cap for all,

197
00:10:04,000 --> 00:10:07,840
Speaker 2: not just medicare. That's playing pretty well on the campaign trail.

198
00:10:07,880 --> 00:10:09,880
Speaker 2: This has been one of the things that the President

199
00:10:09,920 --> 00:10:12,400
Speaker 2: talks about that is received very well. Why doesn't Congress

200
00:10:13,360 --> 00:10:16,000
Speaker 2: approve that? Why doesn't the Republican majority in the House

201
00:10:16,000 --> 00:10:16,719
Speaker 2: take it away from it?

202
00:10:18,480 --> 00:10:20,960
Speaker 6: There's a pretty small fraction of Americans who have more

203
00:10:21,040 --> 00:10:23,760
Speaker 6: than two thousand dollars in drug costs every year, something

204
00:10:23,920 --> 00:10:27,280
Speaker 6: like three percent or so. So you're going to cap

205
00:10:27,480 --> 00:10:30,640
Speaker 6: everyone at two thousand. That's a pretty broad insurance mandate.

206
00:10:31,720 --> 00:10:33,880
Speaker 6: And how are they going to pay for that, Well,

207
00:10:34,160 --> 00:10:35,839
Speaker 6: they're gonna have to raise premium So this is a

208
00:10:35,920 --> 00:10:39,839
Speaker 6: recipe for higher premiums on every health insurance policy in

209
00:10:39,880 --> 00:10:43,640
Speaker 6: the United States. I don't see members of Congress, who

210
00:10:43,679 --> 00:10:45,600
Speaker 6: are up every two years being too eager to get

211
00:10:45,600 --> 00:10:50,960
Speaker 6: into that discussion. Insulin's a different matter. That's pretty popular idea,

212
00:10:51,080 --> 00:10:54,080
Speaker 6: and it's popular proven by the fact that every pharmaceutical

213
00:10:54,160 --> 00:10:56,520
Speaker 6: company offers insulin at thirty five dollars a month. They

214
00:10:56,559 --> 00:11:00,480
Speaker 6: have a private program to do that. So the the

215
00:11:00,559 --> 00:11:04,760
Speaker 6: Medicare proposals, the health ins proposals, are not quite as

216
00:11:05,080 --> 00:11:07,720
Speaker 6: practical as they appear to be appealing on the campaign trail.

217
00:11:08,800 --> 00:11:09,000
Speaker 3: Yeah.

218
00:11:09,080 --> 00:11:11,520
Speaker 2: Sure, now you and I are having this conversation with

219
00:11:11,640 --> 00:11:15,719
Speaker 2: a straight face. We're getting wonky on this stuff, and

220
00:11:15,760 --> 00:11:17,280
Speaker 2: that's what we do. But the fact of the matter

221
00:11:17,440 --> 00:11:19,800
Speaker 2: is we don't have a real budget for twenty twenty four,

222
00:11:19,840 --> 00:11:22,360
Speaker 2: and I'm just not sure if wherever you can tell

223
00:11:22,400 --> 00:11:24,360
Speaker 2: me going to get one for twenty five. We're actually

224
00:11:24,480 --> 00:11:27,880
Speaker 2: under a laddered cr right now that with the second

225
00:11:27,920 --> 00:11:30,520
Speaker 2: half set to expire on March twenty second. And if

226
00:11:30,559 --> 00:11:32,400
Speaker 2: you want or listen to this program, you don't need

227
00:11:32,480 --> 00:11:34,400
Speaker 2: me to tell you about it. God love this audience.

228
00:11:34,440 --> 00:11:37,480
Speaker 2: They're dialed in, Douglas. I wonder if it's more likely

229
00:11:37,600 --> 00:11:39,720
Speaker 2: we shut down on the twenty second or actually get

230
00:11:39,760 --> 00:11:41,440
Speaker 2: a budget for twenty twenty five.

231
00:11:43,320 --> 00:11:46,360
Speaker 6: Well, certainly there is a threat of a shutdown, But

232
00:11:46,920 --> 00:11:49,000
Speaker 6: I think the good news is that from all of

233
00:11:49,120 --> 00:11:51,480
Speaker 6: the political polling that I have seen and people have

234
00:11:51,600 --> 00:11:56,080
Speaker 6: talked to a shutdown hurts Republicans dramatically in the fall.

235
00:11:56,960 --> 00:11:59,480
Speaker 6: They don't want that. So there is an incentive for

236
00:11:59,600 --> 00:12:03,360
Speaker 6: that House to get it together and compromise, get these

237
00:12:03,400 --> 00:12:05,840
Speaker 6: over the finish line, and put the twenty twenty four budget,

238
00:12:05,920 --> 00:12:09,040
Speaker 6: which began October first, twenty twenty three, so we're way

239
00:12:09,080 --> 00:12:11,760
Speaker 6: behind schedule. Ye, put that in the review mirror, and

240
00:12:11,880 --> 00:12:14,160
Speaker 6: then's see if they can get to yes on the

241
00:12:14,200 --> 00:12:18,400
Speaker 6: next year's budget during the campaign season. I'm a little pessimistic.

242
00:12:17,920 --> 00:12:18,600
Speaker 1: On that front.

243
00:12:20,400 --> 00:12:23,080
Speaker 2: About which part, whether we go beyond the twenty second

244
00:12:23,880 --> 00:12:24,800
Speaker 2: Oh no, I think we'll.

245
00:12:24,679 --> 00:12:27,160
Speaker 6: Get that done. I think that's in the political interest.

246
00:12:27,200 --> 00:12:30,240
Speaker 6: But you know, we now should be doing the twenty

247
00:12:30,280 --> 00:12:33,679
Speaker 6: twenty five budgeting, and right I don't see that getting

248
00:12:33,720 --> 00:12:34,839
Speaker 6: done in an election season.

249
00:12:35,920 --> 00:12:38,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's god. We're just going to get used to

250
00:12:38,080 --> 00:12:38,439
Speaker 3: this stuff.

251
00:12:38,480 --> 00:12:42,240
Speaker 2: The President did sign the first minibus over the weekend,

252
00:12:42,320 --> 00:12:44,440
Speaker 2: six hundred and or four hundred and sixty billion dollars.

253
00:12:44,520 --> 00:12:47,040
Speaker 2: That's the first six bills. The other six are in

254
00:12:47,080 --> 00:12:49,560
Speaker 2: the next package, which actually is a much larger portion

255
00:12:49,679 --> 00:12:53,640
Speaker 2: of the budget. And as you know, Douglas it includes HHS,

256
00:12:53,720 --> 00:12:56,800
Speaker 2: it includes Homeland Security, the Pentagon, the sticking points here,

257
00:12:56,880 --> 00:12:58,760
Speaker 2: the stuff that no one can seem.

258
00:12:58,760 --> 00:13:02,760
Speaker 3: To figure out. What makes you optimistic that they get

259
00:13:02,800 --> 00:13:03,160
Speaker 3: this done?

260
00:13:05,000 --> 00:13:09,079
Speaker 6: So take the polling on the House Republican side they have.

261
00:13:09,679 --> 00:13:11,160
Speaker 2: It's as simple as that show. You don't want to

262
00:13:11,160 --> 00:13:14,600
Speaker 2: be blamed for it. No, Look, I mean it's real simple.

263
00:13:14,840 --> 00:13:17,679
Speaker 2: They have a big advantage on the immigration issue. If

264
00:13:17,720 --> 00:13:20,079
Speaker 2: they close the government, they lose it entirely. So Republicans

265
00:13:20,320 --> 00:13:23,600
Speaker 2: finally have a re get to the table with Democrats

266
00:13:23,640 --> 00:13:25,959
Speaker 2: in the House houses, you know, in the Senate. That's

267
00:13:26,000 --> 00:13:28,640
Speaker 2: already happened, and so we're going to see the same

268
00:13:28,720 --> 00:13:33,000
Speaker 2: movie we saw with the first minibus. At the last minute,

269
00:13:33,040 --> 00:13:35,160
Speaker 2: they will put this on the House floor under the

270
00:13:35,200 --> 00:13:36,280
Speaker 2: quote suspension of the rules.

271
00:13:36,320 --> 00:13:38,480
Speaker 6: They'll get a two thirds majority. It'll be carried a

272
00:13:38,520 --> 00:13:42,520
Speaker 6: lot by Democrats also some Republicans, and we will finally

273
00:13:42,559 --> 00:13:44,559
Speaker 6: have the budgeting in place for the remainder of the

274
00:13:44,600 --> 00:13:45,160
Speaker 6: fiscal year.

275
00:13:46,520 --> 00:13:48,640
Speaker 3: That would be a small miracle around here.

276
00:13:49,440 --> 00:13:53,559
Speaker 2: We avoid the sequester in that case, and then we

277
00:13:53,720 --> 00:13:57,439
Speaker 2: start looking at the next fiscal year. I can't imagine

278
00:13:57,640 --> 00:14:02,439
Speaker 2: how that would actually proceed. You don't think we get

279
00:14:02,480 --> 00:14:04,439
Speaker 2: a real budget for twenty five do we go through

280
00:14:04,480 --> 00:14:07,800
Speaker 2: the motions or is the House essentially closed after this?

281
00:14:08,920 --> 00:14:12,160
Speaker 6: So the House Budget Committee actually marked up a budget resolution.

282
00:14:12,240 --> 00:14:13,920
Speaker 6: They did it today the State of the Union, and

283
00:14:14,440 --> 00:14:16,960
Speaker 6: they will vote on that in the House Budget Comedy.

284
00:14:17,559 --> 00:14:19,920
Speaker 6: The Senate Budget Contee has shown no interest in doing

285
00:14:19,920 --> 00:14:22,960
Speaker 6: any budget work this Congress, so I don't think they'll

286
00:14:23,000 --> 00:14:26,400
Speaker 6: do anything, so we won't have a real congressional budget process.

287
00:14:26,520 --> 00:14:29,880
Speaker 6: We'll get the president's budget today, they'll look over it,

288
00:14:29,920 --> 00:14:33,000
Speaker 6: and they'll start negotiating about the kind of spending they

289
00:14:33,040 --> 00:14:36,320
Speaker 6: could maybe agree on after the election. But I think

290
00:14:36,400 --> 00:14:40,520
Speaker 6: we're doomed to a continued resolution from September thirtieth through

291
00:14:40,560 --> 00:14:40,960
Speaker 6: the election.

292
00:14:42,160 --> 00:14:45,160
Speaker 2: Wow, all right, we'll play this tape back. Douglas, thank you.

293
00:14:45,320 --> 00:14:48,240
Speaker 2: I'm glad you could joined today. Happy budget Day, even.

294
00:14:48,040 --> 00:14:48,720
Speaker 3: If it's not real.

295
00:14:48,800 --> 00:14:51,280
Speaker 2: Douglas old Zeke and the president of the American Action Forum.

296
00:14:51,280 --> 00:14:53,720
Speaker 2: He has been inside the bubble. Was Chief economist the

297
00:14:53,720 --> 00:14:57,160
Speaker 2: President's Council of Economic Advisors two thousand and one to

298
00:14:57,280 --> 00:15:00,560
Speaker 2: two thousand and two the Bush White House.

299
00:15:04,040 --> 00:15:07,360
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Ken

300
00:15:07,560 --> 00:15:10,600
Speaker 1: just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then

301
00:15:10,680 --> 00:15:13,240
Speaker 1: royd Otto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also

302
00:15:13,360 --> 00:15:16,800
Speaker 1: listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station.

303
00:15:17,240 --> 00:15:19,920
Speaker 1: Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

304
00:15:22,400 --> 00:15:24,640
Speaker 7: You know, Joe. Typically, if you were to say something

305
00:15:24,840 --> 00:15:27,840
Speaker 7: like we're going to quadruple the tax on stock buybacks

306
00:15:27,880 --> 00:15:29,960
Speaker 7: to raise the corporate tax rate to twenty eight percent,

307
00:15:30,040 --> 00:15:33,360
Speaker 7: financial markets wouldn't necessarily react really well to that. And

308
00:15:33,480 --> 00:15:35,760
Speaker 7: yet that's exactly what we got in the budget outlined

309
00:15:35,800 --> 00:15:38,880
Speaker 7: by President Biden. Doesn't seem like it's making too much

310
00:15:39,120 --> 00:15:41,240
Speaker 7: of a dent, which probably speaks to the fact that

311
00:15:41,320 --> 00:15:43,640
Speaker 7: the market is acknowledging that the likelihood of this becoming

312
00:15:43,720 --> 00:15:47,160
Speaker 7: reality sure is probably lower than it is higher.

313
00:15:47,320 --> 00:15:49,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, it tends not to be a pass through, right,

314
00:15:49,760 --> 00:15:51,640
Speaker 2: going to be a debate. The question is, well, there

315
00:15:51,720 --> 00:15:53,640
Speaker 2: be a budget at the end of that debate, And

316
00:15:53,680 --> 00:15:56,440
Speaker 2: as we'll discuss coming up with Congressman Seth Moulton, we

317
00:15:56,480 --> 00:15:58,640
Speaker 2: haven't figured out how to do it this fiscal year,

318
00:15:59,240 --> 00:16:02,920
Speaker 2: So why would one in a campaign cycle be any different?

319
00:16:02,920 --> 00:16:05,160
Speaker 2: And that's going to be a big question here. Although

320
00:16:05,240 --> 00:16:07,960
Speaker 2: Republicans did Mark up a twenty twenty five plan last week.

321
00:16:08,040 --> 00:16:11,680
Speaker 2: Speaking of aspirational, everyone's dancing to their own music. Mike

322
00:16:11,760 --> 00:16:14,560
Speaker 2: Dorney knows about that music. He's been covering Washington.

323
00:16:14,240 --> 00:16:14,600
Speaker 3: For a minute.

324
00:16:14,640 --> 00:16:20,120
Speaker 2: He's with us now, Bloomberg's deputy congressional editor, Mike. It's

325
00:16:20,120 --> 00:16:22,560
Speaker 2: great to see you. That's how this works, right. The

326
00:16:22,640 --> 00:16:25,000
Speaker 2: problem is this year we haven't figured out how to

327
00:16:25,680 --> 00:16:26,440
Speaker 2: keep the lights on it.

328
00:16:27,040 --> 00:16:30,520
Speaker 8: Yeah, we're in a total gridlock at the moment because

329
00:16:30,560 --> 00:16:32,960
Speaker 8: there's a very different view of what the government should

330
00:16:32,960 --> 00:16:38,160
Speaker 8: be doing. They're blocked fighting each other. This budget is

331
00:16:38,240 --> 00:16:42,520
Speaker 8: should be viewed as aspirational. This is what Bidens do

332
00:16:43,840 --> 00:16:47,640
Speaker 8: if he were reelected and got not only a Democratic Congress,

333
00:16:47,720 --> 00:16:51,160
Speaker 8: but a Democratic Congress that didn't include people who disagreed

334
00:16:51,200 --> 00:16:54,360
Speaker 8: with him, like Joe Manchin that said, you know, this

335
00:16:54,640 --> 00:16:56,120
Speaker 8: is like you know, we had the State of the

336
00:16:56,240 --> 00:16:58,600
Speaker 8: Union speech last week. This is a little bit of

337
00:16:58,680 --> 00:17:02,040
Speaker 8: how the rubber meets the row with that that vision

338
00:17:02,760 --> 00:17:06,879
Speaker 8: that Biden presented. And as far as like a budget

339
00:17:06,920 --> 00:17:09,840
Speaker 8: getting done in an election year, I'd give the chances

340
00:17:10,080 --> 00:17:13,480
Speaker 8: very low. Usually or often what they do is just

341
00:17:13,600 --> 00:17:16,320
Speaker 8: wait until after the election to deal with like how

342
00:17:16,320 --> 00:17:17,119
Speaker 8: they're going to spend.

343
00:17:17,640 --> 00:17:20,840
Speaker 7: So could be looking at another CR after September thirtieth

344
00:17:20,920 --> 00:17:23,360
Speaker 7: of this year, after the series of crs that were

345
00:17:23,920 --> 00:17:26,560
Speaker 7: kicked off after September thirtieth of the year.

346
00:17:26,720 --> 00:17:29,120
Speaker 8: Kind of different. It wouldn't be as dysfunctional as sure.

347
00:17:29,160 --> 00:17:31,080
Speaker 8: It would be basically saying, hey.

348
00:17:31,160 --> 00:17:31,840
Speaker 3: This is what it's going.

349
00:17:32,000 --> 00:17:34,000
Speaker 8: We'll wait till after the election. Then we'll see where

350
00:17:34,040 --> 00:17:36,840
Speaker 8: we all stand and then we know who has what

351
00:17:37,119 --> 00:17:38,960
Speaker 8: kind of power and then we can make a deal.

352
00:17:39,160 --> 00:17:41,840
Speaker 7: Well, and just for the dose of reality, Steve Scalise,

353
00:17:41,920 --> 00:17:44,879
Speaker 7: the number two in House Republican leadership, just said they

354
00:17:44,960 --> 00:17:48,199
Speaker 7: reject Biden's buzzet proposal the price tag. He says, if

355
00:17:48,200 --> 00:17:50,760
Speaker 7: the proposed budget is yet another glaring reminder of this

356
00:17:50,880 --> 00:17:55,200
Speaker 7: administration's insatiable appetite for reckless spending. Goes on to say,

357
00:17:55,200 --> 00:17:57,360
Speaker 7: the budget doesn't just miss the market, is a roadmap

358
00:17:57,680 --> 00:17:59,960
Speaker 7: to accelerate America's decline.

359
00:18:00,119 --> 00:18:05,159
Speaker 8: So I guess, yeah, if Biden thinks it's a good idea,

360
00:18:05,320 --> 00:18:06,320
Speaker 8: gosh before it.

361
00:18:07,760 --> 00:18:10,199
Speaker 3: That gives you a sense of where we're starting here.

362
00:18:10,280 --> 00:18:12,520
Speaker 2: Can we maybe back up a second before we talk

363
00:18:12,560 --> 00:18:15,840
Speaker 2: to Congress of A Moulton Mike are we going to

364
00:18:15,880 --> 00:18:18,119
Speaker 2: shut down on the twenty second. There's no guarantee that

365
00:18:18,240 --> 00:18:22,160
Speaker 2: this next package of six bills will get done either.

366
00:18:22,080 --> 00:18:26,400
Speaker 8: Right, there's no guarantee that said, you know, I've continued

367
00:18:26,440 --> 00:18:30,000
Speaker 8: to view that the Republicans and the Democrats have both

368
00:18:30,119 --> 00:18:33,080
Speaker 8: shown their hands on this that neither side wants to

369
00:18:33,160 --> 00:18:37,120
Speaker 8: shut down of the government in an election year. Speaker

370
00:18:37,280 --> 00:18:41,920
Speaker 8: Johnson has signaled again and again that he is willing

371
00:18:42,040 --> 00:18:44,440
Speaker 8: to come to a deal to avoid a shutdown, whether

372
00:18:44,560 --> 00:18:47,080
Speaker 8: that's kicking the can down the road as he did

373
00:18:47,200 --> 00:18:51,119
Speaker 8: every other time, or actually reaching the ultimate deal as

374
00:18:51,240 --> 00:18:54,320
Speaker 8: he did with about a quarter of the funding for government.

375
00:18:55,280 --> 00:18:58,879
Speaker 8: So I wouldn't expect there's much of a likelihood of

376
00:18:58,920 --> 00:19:02,119
Speaker 8: an actual government shut down before, you know, in this

377
00:19:02,240 --> 00:19:02,760
Speaker 8: fiscal year.

378
00:19:02,800 --> 00:19:04,560
Speaker 7: And at least I thought that, all right, at least

379
00:19:04,600 --> 00:19:07,480
Speaker 7: there's this, at least there's that. Yeah, So we'll see

380
00:19:07,520 --> 00:19:09,960
Speaker 7: a lot can happen and the next two weeks. Mike Dorning,

381
00:19:10,040 --> 00:19:12,199
Speaker 7: who is our deputy team leader of Congressional coverage here

382
00:19:12,240 --> 00:19:15,040
Speaker 7: a Bloomberg thank you so much for joining us. And

383
00:19:15,119 --> 00:19:19,000
Speaker 7: now joining us is Congressman Seth Milton, Democrat from Massachusetts,

384
00:19:19,000 --> 00:19:21,320
Speaker 7: who of course is very much involved in all of

385
00:19:21,359 --> 00:19:23,960
Speaker 7: these different spending battles. Congressmen, thank you so much for

386
00:19:24,000 --> 00:19:26,920
Speaker 7: coming back to Bloomberg Television and Radio. Do you have

387
00:19:27,000 --> 00:19:30,400
Speaker 7: an understand of what where we stand in these next

388
00:19:30,480 --> 00:19:33,440
Speaker 7: six appropriation bills that need to be passed by the

389
00:19:33,520 --> 00:19:35,760
Speaker 7: twenty second Are we going to get another I guess

390
00:19:35,840 --> 00:19:37,720
Speaker 7: megabus is what we decided to call it.

391
00:19:37,800 --> 00:19:40,960
Speaker 9: What's the plan, Well, that's definitely the plan.

392
00:19:41,160 --> 00:19:43,160
Speaker 10: The plan is to do exactly what we did last week,

393
00:19:43,240 --> 00:19:46,760
Speaker 10: which is combined these appropriations bills together, work out the differences,

394
00:19:46,800 --> 00:19:50,720
Speaker 10: and then pass them as one package against the objections

395
00:19:50,760 --> 00:19:55,480
Speaker 10: of the extremist Republicans who always vote against just simply

396
00:19:55,560 --> 00:19:56,720
Speaker 10: having a budget basically.

397
00:19:56,880 --> 00:19:58,560
Speaker 9: So that is the plan.

398
00:19:58,800 --> 00:20:03,200
Speaker 10: The challenge is that this group of appropriations bills is

399
00:20:03,440 --> 00:20:06,639
Speaker 10: just more contentious, it's more challenging. And I was speaking

400
00:20:06,680 --> 00:20:09,600
Speaker 10: with a Republican colleague last night about this. I mean,

401
00:20:09,680 --> 00:20:12,880
Speaker 10: he's cautiously optimistic, but at the end of the day,

402
00:20:12,920 --> 00:20:15,639
Speaker 10: it's up to the Speaker of the House to quell

403
00:20:15,760 --> 00:20:19,040
Speaker 10: the opposition on the far right, and the speakers worried

404
00:20:19,160 --> 00:20:21,440
Speaker 10: that if he goes too far, they're going to do

405
00:20:21,520 --> 00:20:24,000
Speaker 10: the same thing to him that they did to Kevin McCarthy,

406
00:20:24,040 --> 00:20:26,320
Speaker 10: which is just kick him out of conference or out

407
00:20:26,320 --> 00:20:26,920
Speaker 10: of the speakership.

408
00:20:26,960 --> 00:20:29,399
Speaker 2: What do you make of Sorry, congressman, it's good to

409
00:20:29,400 --> 00:20:31,200
Speaker 2: see you, by the way, welcome back. What do you

410
00:20:31,320 --> 00:20:34,680
Speaker 2: make of Steve Scalise's statement here? Kaylee just mentioned this,

411
00:20:34,920 --> 00:20:39,920
Speaker 2: it's a roadmap to accelerate America's decline. That's quite a

412
00:20:40,040 --> 00:20:42,840
Speaker 2: starting point when it comes to a debate, isn't it.

413
00:20:44,160 --> 00:20:46,440
Speaker 9: I mean, this is just typical for Steve's Scalise.

414
00:20:46,520 --> 00:20:51,200
Speaker 10: I mean, you know, if President Biden were to save

415
00:20:51,240 --> 00:20:54,040
Speaker 10: a young girl from a fast rushing stream, Steve Scalise

416
00:20:54,040 --> 00:20:55,159
Speaker 10: would criticize him for it.

417
00:20:55,440 --> 00:20:57,400
Speaker 9: So it doesn't really mean much of anything at all.

418
00:20:57,800 --> 00:20:59,600
Speaker 10: The fact of the matter is the president has put

419
00:20:59,680 --> 00:21:02,800
Speaker 10: down his vision for the country, and that's important for

420
00:21:02,920 --> 00:21:05,159
Speaker 10: a president to do. I think it's especially important for

421
00:21:05,240 --> 00:21:07,960
Speaker 10: a president to do in an election year. The contrast

422
00:21:08,080 --> 00:21:10,960
Speaker 10: heere with Republicans is that they want to preserve these

423
00:21:11,280 --> 00:21:15,120
Speaker 10: massive tax cuts for the wealthy that have ballooned our deficit.

424
00:21:15,680 --> 00:21:19,359
Speaker 10: They are the ones who have been terribly fiscally irresponsible.

425
00:21:19,359 --> 00:21:23,600
Speaker 10: I mean, the deficit just mag went up like trillions

426
00:21:23,640 --> 00:21:26,480
Speaker 10: of dollars under Donald Trump, and they want to go

427
00:21:26,720 --> 00:21:29,719
Speaker 10: back to that again, That's what they're defending. So when

428
00:21:29,800 --> 00:21:32,880
Speaker 10: President Biden just says, look, I think everybody should pay

429
00:21:32,920 --> 00:21:35,080
Speaker 10: their fair share, it's important.

430
00:21:34,680 --> 00:21:38,080
Speaker 9: For Americans to know that Republicans disagree with that. They

431
00:21:38,119 --> 00:21:39,240
Speaker 9: think the rich should pay less.

432
00:21:41,119 --> 00:21:41,280
Speaker 11: Well.

433
00:21:41,320 --> 00:21:43,600
Speaker 7: Of course, the President is also requesting a few things

434
00:21:43,680 --> 00:21:47,639
Speaker 7: from Congress, including renewing his call for supplemental funding for

435
00:21:47,880 --> 00:21:50,879
Speaker 7: Ukraine and American allies and border security. We all know

436
00:21:51,000 --> 00:21:53,879
Speaker 7: the fate of that original supplemental deal after it was

437
00:21:53,920 --> 00:21:57,040
Speaker 7: struck very quickly died. Something did indeed pass the Senate.

438
00:21:57,480 --> 00:22:00,560
Speaker 7: Very unclear what happens in your body going forar but

439
00:22:00,640 --> 00:22:03,320
Speaker 7: we do know that perhaps a discharge petition could be

440
00:22:03,359 --> 00:22:06,199
Speaker 7: one way around. How Speaker Mike Johnson, if he decides

441
00:22:06,320 --> 00:22:09,560
Speaker 7: not to put Ukraine aid on the floor, are you

442
00:22:09,720 --> 00:22:11,640
Speaker 7: confident that that would work?

443
00:22:12,800 --> 00:22:13,760
Speaker 9: No, I'm not confident.

444
00:22:13,800 --> 00:22:16,240
Speaker 10: And this is a very big problem for our national

445
00:22:16,320 --> 00:22:20,960
Speaker 10: security because supporting Ukraine is not just about defending these

446
00:22:21,000 --> 00:22:23,040
Speaker 10: amazing freedom fighters in Europe.

447
00:22:23,280 --> 00:22:25,040
Speaker 9: It's about protecting Europe.

448
00:22:24,760 --> 00:22:28,159
Speaker 10: From the onslaught of Vladimir Putin, and it's about sending

449
00:22:28,200 --> 00:22:31,199
Speaker 10: a message to seizing Ping in China that democracies are

450
00:22:31,240 --> 00:22:33,640
Speaker 10: going to stand together, that allies are going to stand

451
00:22:33,720 --> 00:22:35,960
Speaker 10: up for each other, and that ultimately that means he

452
00:22:36,000 --> 00:22:39,159
Speaker 10: should not start World War III in the Pacific by

453
00:22:39,240 --> 00:22:40,080
Speaker 10: invading Taiwan.

454
00:22:40,280 --> 00:22:43,600
Speaker 9: So I think people forget just how high the stakes

455
00:22:43,640 --> 00:22:43,959
Speaker 9: are here.

456
00:22:44,280 --> 00:22:44,440
Speaker 11: Now.

457
00:22:44,560 --> 00:22:48,520
Speaker 10: Most Democrats and Republicans in Congress do understand this. The

458
00:22:48,640 --> 00:22:51,520
Speaker 10: issue is that Republicans again are feeling pressure from the

459
00:22:51,640 --> 00:22:56,520
Speaker 10: extreme isolationists on the far right who are against funding Ukraine,

460
00:22:56,560 --> 00:23:01,479
Speaker 10: who just simply don't understand the basic principles of national security. Now,

461
00:23:01,600 --> 00:23:05,960
Speaker 10: to Speaker Johnson's credit, I think that heat understands that

462
00:23:06,119 --> 00:23:08,080
Speaker 10: this is important, and in his heart of hearts, he

463
00:23:08,240 --> 00:23:10,240
Speaker 10: wants to do it. The question is whether he will

464
00:23:10,280 --> 00:23:12,240
Speaker 10: have the card is to stand up to these Freedom

465
00:23:12,320 --> 00:23:15,800
Speaker 10: Caucus extremists and do the right thing for our national security,

466
00:23:15,880 --> 00:23:18,840
Speaker 10: the right thing for freedom and democracy, or whether he'll

467
00:23:18,920 --> 00:23:21,320
Speaker 10: cave to them because again he's afraid that they'll kick

468
00:23:21,400 --> 00:23:22,920
Speaker 10: him out of the Speaker Seed.

469
00:23:24,200 --> 00:23:28,440
Speaker 2: Well, the fact that we're still asking about this does

470
00:23:28,520 --> 00:23:31,399
Speaker 2: make you wonder Congressman Speaker Johnson has not shown his

471
00:23:31,560 --> 00:23:34,720
Speaker 2: cards on this. He says he'll work against the discharge

472
00:23:34,760 --> 00:23:38,119
Speaker 2: petition that Kayleie mentioned, But we have no sense about

473
00:23:38,200 --> 00:23:42,040
Speaker 2: when or if ever Ukraine funding comes to the floor.

474
00:23:42,080 --> 00:23:45,639
Speaker 2: Are we entering a world now in which Ukraine may

475
00:23:45,720 --> 00:23:47,840
Speaker 2: never get more funding from the US?

476
00:23:48,960 --> 00:23:52,840
Speaker 10: I mean that is a distinct possibility under this Republican leadership.

477
00:23:52,880 --> 00:23:56,720
Speaker 10: I mean the Speaker has not been able to do anything.

478
00:23:57,200 --> 00:24:01,160
Speaker 10: He doesn't have a plan. His biggest accomplishments to date

479
00:24:01,520 --> 00:24:05,360
Speaker 10: are not shutting the government down, and even that he's

480
00:24:05,400 --> 00:24:08,159
Speaker 10: had to go against the extremists in his caucus to

481
00:24:08,359 --> 00:24:09,240
Speaker 10: do so.

482
00:24:09,600 --> 00:24:12,000
Speaker 9: I mean, this is what Americans get when they have.

483
00:24:12,640 --> 00:24:15,119
Speaker 10: This Republican Party that is in the middle of a

484
00:24:15,240 --> 00:24:18,200
Speaker 10: civil war leading the House of Representatives.

485
00:24:18,240 --> 00:24:20,280
Speaker 9: There's no leadership, there's no plan.

486
00:24:20,800 --> 00:24:23,080
Speaker 10: I wish I could tell you that this is what

487
00:24:23,200 --> 00:24:24,760
Speaker 10: we're going to do, here's how we're going to go

488
00:24:24,840 --> 00:24:27,360
Speaker 10: about it, here are the challenges, here's why I think

489
00:24:27,400 --> 00:24:30,199
Speaker 10: it will work. But there is literally no plan. All

490
00:24:30,280 --> 00:24:32,680
Speaker 10: we know is that there are good Republicans who want

491
00:24:32,720 --> 00:24:35,399
Speaker 10: to do the right thing. Democrats are standing by to

492
00:24:35,480 --> 00:24:37,960
Speaker 10: do the right thing and inevitably bail the Republican Party

493
00:24:38,000 --> 00:24:41,480
Speaker 10: out when they can't lead. But we are absolutely facing

494
00:24:41,520 --> 00:24:44,960
Speaker 10: the possibility of both a shutdown and the possibility that

495
00:24:45,080 --> 00:24:49,560
Speaker 10: we abandon Ukraine and send a message to China that hey,

496
00:24:49,640 --> 00:24:51,560
Speaker 10: go ahead, start a war in the Pacific because we're

497
00:24:51,600 --> 00:24:54,400
Speaker 10: not going to do anything, and that's ultimately very dangerous.

498
00:24:54,400 --> 00:24:57,000
Speaker 10: There are truly American lives on the line when you

499
00:24:57,040 --> 00:24:58,879
Speaker 10: think about the long term consequences here.

500
00:25:00,760 --> 00:25:02,879
Speaker 7: Well, and of course, Congressman, it's not just aid for

501
00:25:03,320 --> 00:25:06,200
Speaker 7: Ukraine that is in question. Aid for Israel is tied

502
00:25:06,280 --> 00:25:07,840
Speaker 7: up in this as well. But i'd like to ask

503
00:25:07,920 --> 00:25:10,280
Speaker 7: you about some of the rhetoric we heard from both

504
00:25:10,320 --> 00:25:13,840
Speaker 7: President Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over the weekend.

505
00:25:13,880 --> 00:25:17,359
Speaker 7: When Biden, in an interview, suggested that if Israel were

506
00:25:17,440 --> 00:25:20,480
Speaker 7: to invade Rafa, where there are a million Palestinians who

507
00:25:20,480 --> 00:25:23,399
Speaker 7: have sought refuge there, that that would be a red line.

508
00:25:24,040 --> 00:25:26,240
Speaker 7: Netanyahu went on to say that his only red line

509
00:25:26,280 --> 00:25:29,520
Speaker 7: is that October seventh does not happen again. But Sir,

510
00:25:29,640 --> 00:25:32,000
Speaker 7: what good are red lines? If the US still says

511
00:25:32,040 --> 00:25:35,359
Speaker 7: it will stand by Israel, support for Israel, military support

512
00:25:35,440 --> 00:25:38,959
Speaker 7: for Israel will continue, what leverage does the president actually

513
00:25:39,040 --> 00:25:39,400
Speaker 7: have here?

514
00:25:40,400 --> 00:25:41,760
Speaker 9: Well, let's just step back for a minute.

515
00:25:41,760 --> 00:25:44,840
Speaker 10: I mean, this is an incredibly complicated and divisive situation,

516
00:25:45,359 --> 00:25:47,040
Speaker 10: but there are a few principles that we should all

517
00:25:47,160 --> 00:25:49,560
Speaker 10: agree with. First of all, Israel has a right to

518
00:25:49,680 --> 00:25:52,960
Speaker 10: exist in an obligation to defend itself. But second of all,

519
00:25:53,040 --> 00:25:54,800
Speaker 10: you're not going to ever have peace in the Middle

520
00:25:54,800 --> 00:25:58,280
Speaker 10: East if you don't have Palestinian rights. And I think

521
00:25:58,359 --> 00:26:01,000
Speaker 10: that for all the critics of a Tuesday solution, no

522
00:26:01,080 --> 00:26:03,119
Speaker 10: one's been able to come up with a better idea.

523
00:26:03,800 --> 00:26:08,000
Speaker 10: Palestinians and Israelis both deserve to live in peace and freedom,

524
00:26:08,280 --> 00:26:13,280
Speaker 10: to have democratic rights, to have a national state. And ultimately,

525
00:26:14,119 --> 00:26:18,040
Speaker 10: both Israeli and Palestinian innocent people should not be killed.

526
00:26:18,760 --> 00:26:22,359
Speaker 10: And the scope of the human tragedy unfolding in Gaza,

527
00:26:22,440 --> 00:26:23,720
Speaker 10: it's just it's.

528
00:26:23,920 --> 00:26:26,320
Speaker 9: Just unbelievable and heartbreaking.

529
00:26:26,600 --> 00:26:28,600
Speaker 10: And at the end of the day, as we learned

530
00:26:28,640 --> 00:26:31,600
Speaker 10: in Iraq and Afghanistan, a speaking as a marine veteran

531
00:26:31,640 --> 00:26:36,159
Speaker 10: here who's fought in a counterinsurgency, if Netanyah who continues

532
00:26:36,320 --> 00:26:39,600
Speaker 10: killing so many innocent civilians, he's going to lose the

533
00:26:39,680 --> 00:26:43,000
Speaker 10: war because he's just serving as a recruitment tool for Hamas.

534
00:26:43,520 --> 00:26:47,440
Speaker 10: So the issue here is that Netanyahu fundamentally has to go.

535
00:26:47,640 --> 00:26:54,120
Speaker 10: What he's doing is morally bankrupt, it's militarily bankrupt, it's

536
00:26:54,160 --> 00:26:56,920
Speaker 10: not going to work, and so therefore what he's really

537
00:26:57,000 --> 00:27:00,359
Speaker 10: doing is pursuing his own interests and not his And

538
00:27:00,600 --> 00:27:03,040
Speaker 10: you hear this from the Israeli people, I mean net Yeah,

539
00:27:03,040 --> 00:27:06,280
Speaker 10: who has the lowest approval ratings I think we've ever

540
00:27:06,400 --> 00:27:08,920
Speaker 10: seen for a prime minister, even in the midst of

541
00:27:08,960 --> 00:27:12,080
Speaker 10: a war. People can't stand him. I had the opportunity

542
00:27:12,119 --> 00:27:15,840
Speaker 10: to speak with a hostage family just after the State

543
00:27:15,880 --> 00:27:18,680
Speaker 10: of the Union, and I brought up this concern. I said, look,

544
00:27:18,920 --> 00:27:22,040
Speaker 10: we support Israel's right to defend itself. Everyone should want

545
00:27:22,040 --> 00:27:24,560
Speaker 10: to get rid of this terrorist organization wants. You're never

546
00:27:24,560 --> 00:27:26,840
Speaker 10: going to have a Palestinian state if AMAS is around.

547
00:27:27,240 --> 00:27:31,919
Speaker 10: But I really disagree with what the Prime Minister Netyah

548
00:27:31,960 --> 00:27:34,440
Speaker 10: who is doing. I think his strategy is failing. And

549
00:27:34,600 --> 00:27:38,679
Speaker 10: without missing a beat, this hostage family chimed in and said, well,

550
00:27:38,760 --> 00:27:42,040
Speaker 10: his first failure was the fact that he let our

551
00:27:42,080 --> 00:27:45,600
Speaker 10: guard down with his political division in a October seventh

552
00:27:45,640 --> 00:27:48,400
Speaker 10: happened in the first place, So there is just widespread

553
00:27:49,560 --> 00:27:53,520
Speaker 10: dissatisfaction with Prime minister yet yea who in Israel? And

554
00:27:53,600 --> 00:27:57,000
Speaker 10: so when you hear President Biden just echoing those same sentiments.

555
00:27:57,000 --> 00:27:58,680
Speaker 10: I don't think anybody should be surprised.

556
00:27:59,720 --> 00:28:03,720
Speaker 2: We're always curious your thoughts on our policy in Israel

557
00:28:03,760 --> 00:28:05,560
Speaker 2: as well as Ukraine. From your view on the Armed

558
00:28:05,560 --> 00:28:08,480
Speaker 2: Services Committee, and as a combat veteran congressman, I'd like

559
00:28:08,560 --> 00:28:11,200
Speaker 2: to in our remaining moment, tap your expertise as a

560
00:28:11,240 --> 00:28:13,680
Speaker 2: member of the China Select Committee. It appears that the

561
00:28:14,359 --> 00:28:17,680
Speaker 2: TikTok bill that could result in the banning of TikTok

562
00:28:17,680 --> 00:28:20,280
Speaker 2: will end up on the floor for a full House

563
00:28:20,359 --> 00:28:21,400
Speaker 2: vote on Wednesday.

564
00:28:21,600 --> 00:28:22,240
Speaker 3: Will it pass?

565
00:28:22,359 --> 00:28:22,720
Speaker 5: Should it?

566
00:28:23,440 --> 00:28:25,320
Speaker 9: Well? First of all, let's be clear, this bill does

567
00:28:25,400 --> 00:28:26,440
Speaker 9: not ban TikTok.

568
00:28:26,760 --> 00:28:30,800
Speaker 10: It just bans the Chinese Communist Party from essentially owning it.

569
00:28:30,840 --> 00:28:32,320
Speaker 3: Inderstanding right.

570
00:28:32,400 --> 00:28:35,160
Speaker 10: That's a very important distinction, because what TikTok is doing

571
00:28:35,760 --> 00:28:38,280
Speaker 10: is sending out messages to all its users to call

572
00:28:38,360 --> 00:28:41,560
Speaker 10: people like me and say, don't ban TikTok on we're

573
00:28:41,600 --> 00:28:44,400
Speaker 10: doing it all. Yeah, but I'm trying to ban TikTok.

574
00:28:44,720 --> 00:28:47,520
Speaker 10: I hope it gets a vote. I think that we

575
00:28:47,600 --> 00:28:51,120
Speaker 10: don't need the Chinese Communist Party telling our kids what

576
00:28:51,360 --> 00:28:54,320
Speaker 10: to watch online, which is essentially what's going on here.

577
00:28:54,720 --> 00:28:58,080
Speaker 10: And I just want to see TikTok survive and thrive,

578
00:28:58,560 --> 00:29:02,640
Speaker 10: but under American protections, in American hands, and everyone I

579
00:29:02,720 --> 00:29:04,480
Speaker 10: think here in America should want that too.

580
00:29:05,600 --> 00:29:07,520
Speaker 2: All right, I won't call it a band. I'm I'm

581
00:29:07,560 --> 00:29:10,920
Speaker 2: putting that out there right now. It's a divestiture bill

582
00:29:11,120 --> 00:29:14,960
Speaker 2: right right. But if the divestit doesn't, I'm just putting

583
00:29:15,000 --> 00:29:18,200
Speaker 2: it out there. I'm still calling it Twitter not ex Congressman,

584
00:29:18,240 --> 00:29:21,440
Speaker 2: I have one a lot of problems. Congressman Seth Molton,

585
00:29:21,480 --> 00:29:23,640
Speaker 2: It's great to see you. Welcome back to Bloomberg. The

586
00:29:23,680 --> 00:29:27,080
Speaker 2: Democrat from Massachusetts talking about many issues with us here today,

587
00:29:27,080 --> 00:29:29,520
Speaker 2: and we're going to continue that conversation straight ahead with

588
00:29:29,640 --> 00:29:32,400
Speaker 2: Gene Soroka from the Port in LA alongside Kaylee.

589
00:29:32,480 --> 00:29:33,920
Speaker 3: I'm Joe. This is Bloomberg.

590
00:29:37,680 --> 00:29:41,240
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

591
00:29:41,320 --> 00:29:44,120
Speaker 1: just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apple car Play

592
00:29:44,160 --> 00:29:46,920
Speaker 1: and then Rouno with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on

593
00:29:47,040 --> 00:29:50,200
Speaker 1: demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live

594
00:29:50,360 --> 00:29:51,040
Speaker 1: on YouTube.

595
00:29:53,520 --> 00:29:56,240
Speaker 7: Welcome back to Balance of Power on Bloomberg Television and Radio,

596
00:29:56,280 --> 00:29:58,840
Speaker 7: where we were just speaking with Democratic Congressman Seth Moulton,

597
00:29:58,880 --> 00:30:00,920
Speaker 7: who sits on the China Slowe Committee in the House

598
00:30:01,400 --> 00:30:03,560
Speaker 7: about a bill that could come to the floor this

599
00:30:03,720 --> 00:30:07,080
Speaker 7: week that would ban TikTok in the US if Byte

600
00:30:07,200 --> 00:30:09,600
Speaker 7: Dance it's Chinese owner, does not divest. It have to

601
00:30:09,640 --> 00:30:11,440
Speaker 7: be very clear that this is if it's not a

602
00:30:11,520 --> 00:30:14,760
Speaker 7: guarantee that Lily banned Byte Dance has a choice. The

603
00:30:14,880 --> 00:30:18,720
Speaker 7: TikTokers are mad, but this speaks to concern about the

604
00:30:18,800 --> 00:30:21,960
Speaker 7: Chinese Communist Party that is really bipartisan here in the US,

605
00:30:22,040 --> 00:30:23,680
Speaker 7: and how everyone is just trying to be hawkish on

606
00:30:23,800 --> 00:30:25,160
Speaker 7: China pretty much all the time.

607
00:30:25,760 --> 00:30:28,000
Speaker 2: So if they did ban it, then the Trump and

608
00:30:28,240 --> 00:30:31,600
Speaker 2: Biden campaigns would come off of TikTok.

609
00:30:32,520 --> 00:30:34,360
Speaker 7: Yes, okay, well they'd have to.

610
00:30:34,600 --> 00:30:36,440
Speaker 2: Well, I guess there'd be no TikTok here for that.

611
00:30:36,600 --> 00:30:38,720
Speaker 2: But I don't quite understand. You know, we're talking about

612
00:30:38,760 --> 00:30:41,400
Speaker 2: this even as the campaigns use TikTok to.

613
00:30:41,440 --> 00:30:43,360
Speaker 7: Reach voters, right, young voters.

614
00:30:43,440 --> 00:30:46,960
Speaker 3: Let's work for something. I guess sure, But we'll find.

615
00:30:46,760 --> 00:30:47,520
Speaker 5: Out on Wednesday.

616
00:30:47,680 --> 00:30:49,880
Speaker 7: We will find out on Wednesday. That's when Steve Scalisee,

617
00:30:49,920 --> 00:30:52,000
Speaker 7: the number two in the House on the Republican side,

618
00:30:52,040 --> 00:30:53,880
Speaker 7: says he'll bring this to a floor and we'll see

619
00:30:54,080 --> 00:30:57,800
Speaker 7: just how bipartisan this effort is when it comes to China.

620
00:30:57,880 --> 00:30:59,600
Speaker 7: But of course there's a lot of other issues to

621
00:30:59,640 --> 00:31:02,160
Speaker 7: consider when we think about the US stance toward China,

622
00:31:02,240 --> 00:31:04,840
Speaker 7: including when it comes to trade. Joe, we know that

623
00:31:05,040 --> 00:31:07,520
Speaker 7: under the Biden administration, the trumps that were put or

624
00:31:07,600 --> 00:31:09,640
Speaker 7: the terrorists that were put in place during the Trump

625
00:31:09,680 --> 00:31:12,920
Speaker 7: administration have stayed. And now former President Trump is he

626
00:31:13,480 --> 00:31:16,480
Speaker 7: very likely will be the Republican nominee November, is pushing

627
00:31:16,560 --> 00:31:21,200
Speaker 7: potentially even larger tariffs that would come under a second administration.

628
00:31:21,280 --> 00:31:23,440
Speaker 7: And he was actually asked about this in an interview

629
00:31:23,720 --> 00:31:25,760
Speaker 7: on another network earlier today. Take a listen.

630
00:31:26,160 --> 00:31:29,200
Speaker 12: Is there no concern that China could impose retaliatory tariffs

631
00:31:29,520 --> 00:31:32,480
Speaker 12: or retaliatory actions that would make doing business in China

632
00:31:32,640 --> 00:31:36,240
Speaker 12: difficult for American companies what are dependent on Jenniff for growth?

633
00:31:36,320 --> 00:31:39,000
Speaker 11: That's okay, Yeah, sure it might do that. Even if

634
00:31:39,040 --> 00:31:42,320
Speaker 11: they do let American companies come back to America. I

635
00:31:42,360 --> 00:31:45,720
Speaker 11: would say that China, if you're building a plant on

636
00:31:45,840 --> 00:31:48,920
Speaker 11: our border to build cars in Mexico and to sell

637
00:31:48,960 --> 00:31:51,880
Speaker 11: them into the United States, I'm putting a fifty percent

638
00:31:52,040 --> 00:31:53,200
Speaker 11: tariff on all those guards.

639
00:31:54,960 --> 00:31:58,240
Speaker 2: He said fifty right, yes, five oh five zero. That's

640
00:31:58,280 --> 00:32:00,840
Speaker 2: Donald Trump from earlier a Stemlin. He's on the phone

641
00:32:00,880 --> 00:32:02,840
Speaker 2: for like a half an hourly, where is he? Exactly

642
00:32:03,160 --> 00:32:06,479
Speaker 2: what phone are we doing? So there was a lot

643
00:32:06,560 --> 00:32:09,400
Speaker 2: to pick through there, but he said sixty percent before

644
00:32:09,480 --> 00:32:12,480
Speaker 2: in terms of across the board, which would result, based

645
00:32:12,560 --> 00:32:16,640
Speaker 2: on the number crunching at Bloomberg Economics, result in a divorce.

646
00:32:16,720 --> 00:32:18,640
Speaker 2: That would be the end of our trade agreement likely

647
00:32:18,720 --> 00:32:23,120
Speaker 2: or relationship on any levels, stop all imports and exports.

648
00:32:23,600 --> 00:32:25,320
Speaker 2: So you have a lot of questions here about how

649
00:32:25,360 --> 00:32:27,240
Speaker 2: this would impact trade, where we would go and what

650
00:32:27,400 --> 00:32:30,200
Speaker 2: that might mean for supply chain. And that's where we

651
00:32:30,240 --> 00:32:32,560
Speaker 2: start our conversation with Jeene Soroca, who is with us

652
00:32:32,600 --> 00:32:35,600
Speaker 2: in studio today in Washington. He runs the busiest port

653
00:32:36,360 --> 00:32:38,880
Speaker 2: in America, as Kaylee mentioned, the port of la and Gene,

654
00:32:38,880 --> 00:32:41,720
Speaker 2: it's great to see you. Welcome back afternoon, sit you

655
00:32:41,760 --> 00:32:43,840
Speaker 2: to be back in studio. Well, sure thing, welcome back

656
00:32:43,840 --> 00:32:47,040
Speaker 2: to the nation's capital. Do you take commentary like this

657
00:32:47,240 --> 00:32:51,160
Speaker 2: seriously because it would have a massive impact on the operations.

658
00:32:50,560 --> 00:32:53,040
Speaker 5: Of your port, Well, you have to, and it would

659
00:32:53,120 --> 00:32:54,520
Speaker 5: absolutely be disastrous.

660
00:32:54,640 --> 00:32:57,040
Speaker 13: Joe, I think the look at this is that for

661
00:32:57,160 --> 00:32:59,840
Speaker 13: every four containers we moved through the Port of Los Angeles,

662
00:33:00,120 --> 00:33:04,720
Speaker 13: it creates one job. Sixty percent tariffs or whatever he's

663
00:33:04,800 --> 00:33:08,480
Speaker 13: talking about, means inflation to the American consumer. The US

664
00:33:08,560 --> 00:33:12,360
Speaker 13: Mexico Canada Agreement was designed just for this purpose to

665
00:33:12,560 --> 00:33:16,000
Speaker 13: enhance trade, and Mexico is leapfrog China as our largest

666
00:33:16,080 --> 00:33:18,640
Speaker 13: trading partner. All of this makes very little sense.

667
00:33:19,200 --> 00:33:21,760
Speaker 7: Well, you say Mexico is the largest trading partner, but

668
00:33:21,880 --> 00:33:23,880
Speaker 7: surely if we were to see terrorists of this size,

669
00:33:23,880 --> 00:33:25,400
Speaker 7: it would mean that there's just not a lot of

670
00:33:25,760 --> 00:33:28,040
Speaker 7: trade coming from China at all. Right, you would just

671
00:33:28,360 --> 00:33:30,560
Speaker 7: all of that cargo that would make it through the

672
00:33:30,600 --> 00:33:33,440
Speaker 7: bard of La likely wouldn't be coming, right. I mean,

673
00:33:33,640 --> 00:33:36,280
Speaker 7: can you quantify the amount of jobs realistically that would

674
00:33:36,320 --> 00:33:38,360
Speaker 7: be lost in that scenario. If it's what'd you say,

675
00:33:38,400 --> 00:33:39,760
Speaker 7: four containers one job.

676
00:33:39,880 --> 00:33:40,600
Speaker 5: That's right, Kelly.

677
00:33:41,360 --> 00:33:44,280
Speaker 13: One in nine jobs in Southern California rely on our ports.

678
00:33:44,320 --> 00:33:46,680
Speaker 13: That's about a million people that go to work every

679
00:33:46,880 --> 00:33:50,360
Speaker 13: day counting on us to do our job. About fifty

680
00:33:50,480 --> 00:33:53,960
Speaker 13: seven percent of trade at the Port of Los Angeles

681
00:33:54,000 --> 00:33:56,560
Speaker 13: back in twenty twenty two was with China. That dropped

682
00:33:56,560 --> 00:33:59,840
Speaker 13: down to fifty three percent, so fractionally, but as you

683
00:33:59,840 --> 00:34:02,040
Speaker 13: can keep lopping off the top of this, it has

684
00:34:02,080 --> 00:34:04,680
Speaker 13: a great impact economically and on the people who go.

685
00:34:04,720 --> 00:34:05,440
Speaker 3: To work every day.

686
00:34:06,040 --> 00:34:09,600
Speaker 2: Well, this is obviously something that's going to take time

687
00:34:10,120 --> 00:34:12,640
Speaker 2: to figure out. It won't be until after the election obviously,

688
00:34:12,719 --> 00:34:14,800
Speaker 2: if we know this is a real conversation. Although to

689
00:34:14,920 --> 00:34:18,919
Speaker 2: Kaylie's point, the Biden administration has not relaxed tariffs left

690
00:34:18,960 --> 00:34:20,600
Speaker 2: over from the Trump administration.

691
00:34:20,880 --> 00:34:21,239
Speaker 3: Should it.

692
00:34:21,800 --> 00:34:23,759
Speaker 13: That's right, and what we see is that there's no

693
00:34:23,880 --> 00:34:26,800
Speaker 13: reason the two biggest economies in the world can't trade together.

694
00:34:27,120 --> 00:34:30,279
Speaker 13: But it's been in discussions that I've had with the administration.

695
00:34:30,680 --> 00:34:33,920
Speaker 13: While footwear and toys and clothing are not of consequence,

696
00:34:34,160 --> 00:34:36,440
Speaker 13: where we get our chips, where we get our software

697
00:34:36,920 --> 00:34:39,520
Speaker 13: is and making sure we have rules of engagement on

698
00:34:39,560 --> 00:34:42,640
Speaker 13: the international trade or front of mine to the administration, Well, of.

699
00:34:42,680 --> 00:34:44,880
Speaker 7: Course, there was a time when you would come join

700
00:34:44,960 --> 00:34:47,600
Speaker 7: us here on Bloomberg TV and radio during the aftermath

701
00:34:47,640 --> 00:34:49,560
Speaker 7: of the pandemic, when everything we had to ask you

702
00:34:49,600 --> 00:34:52,600
Speaker 7: about with supply chain, and that also had a relation

703
00:34:52,760 --> 00:34:54,880
Speaker 7: to China, because China closed down a lot of production

704
00:34:55,000 --> 00:34:57,799
Speaker 7: facilities because of COVID and therefore you know, things were

705
00:34:57,840 --> 00:35:00,520
Speaker 7: delayed in getting produced and getting out of the country

706
00:35:00,600 --> 00:35:03,759
Speaker 7: and into US ports. Are you seeing any supply chain

707
00:35:03,800 --> 00:35:08,440
Speaker 7: bottlenecks anywhere now now that China has reopened, But perhaps

708
00:35:08,520 --> 00:35:10,200
Speaker 7: we now have the issues of the Red Sea and

709
00:35:10,280 --> 00:35:13,040
Speaker 7: ships diverting around the coast of Africa. What is happening

710
00:35:13,080 --> 00:35:13,680
Speaker 7: in real time?

711
00:35:13,920 --> 00:35:15,920
Speaker 13: As always, Kaylee, there seems to be a lot on

712
00:35:16,000 --> 00:35:20,080
Speaker 13: the mines of logistations and supply chain experts. China exports

713
00:35:20,160 --> 00:35:21,960
Speaker 13: were up ten percent in the first two months of

714
00:35:22,000 --> 00:35:24,719
Speaker 13: the year, and my projection for Q one at the

715
00:35:24,760 --> 00:35:28,440
Speaker 13: Port of Los Angeles is twenty percent growth, mainly on

716
00:35:28,520 --> 00:35:32,439
Speaker 13: the heels of having a long term dockworkers contract in place.

717
00:35:32,480 --> 00:35:35,400
Speaker 13: We've got another five years of certainty with that respect.

718
00:35:35,680 --> 00:35:39,400
Speaker 13: But drought in the Panama Canal, security concerns in the

719
00:35:39,440 --> 00:35:43,080
Speaker 13: Red Sea, with lower crossings through the Suez Canal. Most

720
00:35:43,160 --> 00:35:45,600
Speaker 13: importers are exporters that I'm visiting with now on those

721
00:35:45,640 --> 00:35:48,120
Speaker 13: topics are telling me they're pointing more cargo towards the

722
00:35:48,160 --> 00:35:49,360
Speaker 13: Southern California Gateway.

723
00:35:49,640 --> 00:35:53,840
Speaker 2: Interesting has the administration solved this problem? We were getting

724
00:35:54,080 --> 00:35:59,480
Speaker 2: daily reports of attacks against ships by hoothy rebels. We

725
00:35:59,600 --> 00:36:03,200
Speaker 2: spent some time bobbing their installations. Don't seem to be

726
00:36:03,280 --> 00:36:07,160
Speaker 2: reading those stories any longer. Just to follow on to

727
00:36:07,280 --> 00:36:09,920
Speaker 2: Kayley's question, have we seen improvement? There are some ships

728
00:36:09,960 --> 00:36:11,160
Speaker 2: pointing back into the Red Sea.

729
00:36:11,680 --> 00:36:14,080
Speaker 5: Not really, Joe, and what we need is a global

730
00:36:14,239 --> 00:36:15,000
Speaker 5: response to this.

731
00:36:15,440 --> 00:36:17,680
Speaker 13: When I was based in Dubai working for the private

732
00:36:17,800 --> 00:36:21,239
Speaker 13: sector American President Lines, we had meetings with NATO on

733
00:36:21,320 --> 00:36:24,920
Speaker 13: a regular basis that they're Africa headquarters in Djibouti. We

734
00:36:25,040 --> 00:36:28,560
Speaker 13: were varying speeds and timing schedules of our vessels to

735
00:36:28,600 --> 00:36:31,640
Speaker 13: protect our crew, assets and cargo. This is not going

736
00:36:31,719 --> 00:36:35,080
Speaker 13: away anytime soon. Many have changed their routes to go

737
00:36:35,160 --> 00:36:38,240
Speaker 13: around the Cape of Good Hope, adding transit time and cost.

738
00:36:38,640 --> 00:36:41,759
Speaker 13: Think of fuel burn to the supply chains coming to

739
00:36:41,840 --> 00:36:45,080
Speaker 13: the East Coast and Gulf, as well as that lifeline

740
00:36:45,080 --> 00:36:46,320
Speaker 13: of manufacturing to Europe.

741
00:36:46,400 --> 00:36:48,799
Speaker 3: So what are they waiting for to go back into

742
00:36:48,800 --> 00:36:49,319
Speaker 3: the Red Sea?

743
00:36:49,440 --> 00:36:51,320
Speaker 5: Well, safety and security.

744
00:36:51,680 --> 00:36:55,120
Speaker 13: I don't think we have any level of confidence right

745
00:36:55,200 --> 00:36:58,000
Speaker 13: now that ships can pass unimpeded through the Red Sea

746
00:36:58,080 --> 00:36:59,000
Speaker 13: to the Suez Canal.

747
00:36:59,320 --> 00:37:01,840
Speaker 5: And again, concern for cruise is front of mine to

748
00:37:01,920 --> 00:37:03,080
Speaker 5: all of US well.

749
00:37:02,960 --> 00:37:05,680
Speaker 7: And you mentioned how that dynamic as well as increase

750
00:37:05,760 --> 00:37:08,320
Speaker 7: volumes for China are going to translate you think in

751
00:37:08,360 --> 00:37:11,440
Speaker 7: your estimation to hire volumes at your port and imports

752
00:37:11,880 --> 00:37:14,719
Speaker 7: on the California coast, And you mentioned the contract with

753
00:37:14,840 --> 00:37:17,640
Speaker 7: dock workers that is now in place. But are there

754
00:37:17,760 --> 00:37:20,920
Speaker 7: enough workers to go around to take those upticks in volume.

755
00:37:21,840 --> 00:37:23,080
Speaker 5: I think we're in pretty good shape.

756
00:37:23,160 --> 00:37:25,759
Speaker 13: We're running at about seventy five to eighty percent of

757
00:37:26,000 --> 00:37:28,560
Speaker 13: normal capacity from what I see at the Port of

758
00:37:28,640 --> 00:37:31,400
Speaker 13: Los Angeles. But we're not immune like anyone else in

759
00:37:31,480 --> 00:37:34,359
Speaker 13: the nation. There are almost eight point nine million jobs open.

760
00:37:34,719 --> 00:37:36,680
Speaker 13: We have to continue to do the best we can

761
00:37:36,800 --> 00:37:40,920
Speaker 13: to attract, recruit and retain people in our industry, from

762
00:37:40,960 --> 00:37:44,320
Speaker 13: the dock workers to truckers and warehouses to the logistictions

763
00:37:44,400 --> 00:37:46,000
Speaker 13: and it specialists that we need.

764
00:37:46,600 --> 00:37:49,480
Speaker 3: Does the last mile remain the biggest challenge for you

765
00:37:49,560 --> 00:37:50,040
Speaker 3: on that front?

766
00:37:50,440 --> 00:37:52,680
Speaker 5: I think, really what it is, Joe, it's the velocity

767
00:37:52,719 --> 00:37:53,120
Speaker 5: of cargo.

768
00:37:53,160 --> 00:37:56,000
Speaker 13: If there's anything we learned from COVID, this port has

769
00:37:56,040 --> 00:37:59,840
Speaker 13: to be a transit facility, not a warehouse for resting containers.

770
00:38:00,200 --> 00:38:03,760
Speaker 13: We've got to balance all these interdependencies with rail trucking

771
00:38:03,840 --> 00:38:06,239
Speaker 13: and warehouse just as much as we do getting that

772
00:38:06,360 --> 00:38:10,279
Speaker 13: cargo on and off the vessels. Twelve thousand lifts off

773
00:38:10,520 --> 00:38:12,880
Speaker 13: and onto ships coming at the Port of Los Angeles

774
00:38:12,920 --> 00:38:13,400
Speaker 13: on average.

775
00:38:13,719 --> 00:38:15,200
Speaker 5: That's the best in the business today.

776
00:38:16,040 --> 00:38:19,360
Speaker 7: Interesting we also today and you kind of jog my

777
00:38:19,440 --> 00:38:21,320
Speaker 7: memory when you were talking about investments you need to

778
00:38:21,360 --> 00:38:25,440
Speaker 7: make into AI, for example technology. Part of the budget

779
00:38:25,520 --> 00:38:28,600
Speaker 7: that President Biden put forward today does include introducing kind

780
00:38:28,600 --> 00:38:31,439
Speaker 7: of AI offices, even at the Department of Labor, trying

781
00:38:31,480 --> 00:38:36,080
Speaker 7: to capitalize on that technology. How do you view AI

782
00:38:36,320 --> 00:38:42,839
Speaker 7: changing the way that operationally ports will be handling things

783
00:38:42,920 --> 00:38:46,279
Speaker 7: into the future. Does that get rid of workers or

784
00:38:46,400 --> 00:38:50,480
Speaker 7: does it just ease the operations through which they are undertaking.

785
00:38:50,880 --> 00:38:53,000
Speaker 7: How is AI going to change the future of shipping?

786
00:38:54,000 --> 00:38:56,960
Speaker 13: We cannot leave the worker behind. When technology is moving

787
00:38:57,160 --> 00:39:00,759
Speaker 13: faster than ever before. AI can help us with predictive

788
00:39:00,920 --> 00:39:04,760
Speaker 13: and prescriptive analytics. You see something happening on a regular basis,

789
00:39:04,800 --> 00:39:06,480
Speaker 13: how do you react in quicker time?

790
00:39:06,600 --> 00:39:07,640
Speaker 5: That's the basis for it.

791
00:39:07,960 --> 00:39:11,280
Speaker 13: With our Port Community system, the Port Optimizer code developed

792
00:39:11,320 --> 00:39:15,960
Speaker 13: by General Electric, we can now see upstreams some forty

793
00:39:16,080 --> 00:39:19,120
Speaker 13: days before a vessel comes into La better to plan

794
00:39:19,440 --> 00:39:23,520
Speaker 13: land equipment and our skilled workforce. And that's in part

795
00:39:23,520 --> 00:39:26,040
Speaker 13: why I'm here this week in Washington. I'm with a

796
00:39:26,160 --> 00:39:29,359
Speaker 13: delegation from the Los Angeles Area Chamber of Commerce, led

797
00:39:29,400 --> 00:39:32,160
Speaker 13: by CEO Maria Salinas. We're going to be meeting with

798
00:39:32,239 --> 00:39:36,719
Speaker 13: elected officials and policymakers to campaign for more interest in

799
00:39:36,760 --> 00:39:39,279
Speaker 13: the Southern California region, including our port.

800
00:39:40,680 --> 00:39:42,600
Speaker 2: We wish you luck with the meetings, of course, And

801
00:39:42,680 --> 00:39:45,720
Speaker 2: while we're sitting here with Gene Soroca, of all people,

802
00:39:45,880 --> 00:39:48,560
Speaker 2: I have to acknowledge the date. We're talking about this

803
00:39:48,640 --> 00:39:51,160
Speaker 2: a little bit earlier in the newsroom. March eleventh, twenty twenty,

804
00:39:51,280 --> 00:39:55,400
Speaker 2: was the day the World Health Organization declared COVID a pandemic.

805
00:39:56,000 --> 00:39:59,200
Speaker 2: It was on that same day. Remember the NBA canceled

806
00:39:59,200 --> 00:40:02,399
Speaker 2: the rest of its season. That same day Tom Hanks

807
00:40:02,440 --> 00:40:06,120
Speaker 2: announced he had the virus. People started to freak out,

808
00:40:06,200 --> 00:40:09,400
Speaker 2: It started to feel real. It was the same day

809
00:40:09,440 --> 00:40:12,360
Speaker 2: then President Trump imposed a new travel band from Europe.

810
00:40:12,520 --> 00:40:16,759
Speaker 2: Your Life, Your World, your whole career, and the operations

811
00:40:16,800 --> 00:40:17,560
Speaker 2: of that port.

812
00:40:17,440 --> 00:40:18,680
Speaker 3: Changed that day, too, didn't they.

813
00:40:18,880 --> 00:40:22,280
Speaker 13: It sure did, And it's a very very strong reminder

814
00:40:22,360 --> 00:40:25,520
Speaker 13: of what we went through I lived in China during SARS,

815
00:40:26,120 --> 00:40:29,799
Speaker 13: and this became one hundred one, ten thousand times worse

816
00:40:29,840 --> 00:40:33,000
Speaker 13: than what we witnessed on the ground there. Stopping all work,

817
00:40:33,080 --> 00:40:36,440
Speaker 13: but having a selfless opinion of how we were going

818
00:40:36,520 --> 00:40:39,400
Speaker 13: to keep the American economy moving from our dock workers

819
00:40:39,440 --> 00:40:41,600
Speaker 13: to all those in the supply chain was just so

820
00:40:41,840 --> 00:40:44,040
Speaker 13: inspiring at that time of great uncertainty.

821
00:40:44,320 --> 00:40:46,000
Speaker 3: I made us late by bringing us up, but I'm

822
00:40:46,080 --> 00:40:46,960
Speaker 3: just struck by the day.

823
00:40:47,280 --> 00:40:51,120
Speaker 2: Everyone should go outside, breathe fresh air, Actually go inside

824
00:40:51,680 --> 00:40:53,799
Speaker 2: and breathe fresh air, go out to dinner, do something

825
00:40:53,840 --> 00:40:54,560
Speaker 2: you couldn't.

826
00:40:54,360 --> 00:40:56,480
Speaker 7: Stand within six feet of other peoples. That's right on

827
00:40:56,640 --> 00:40:58,480
Speaker 7: all the things we have the privilege of doing now.

828
00:41:00,800 --> 00:41:04,000
Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make

829
00:41:04,040 --> 00:41:07,000
Speaker 2: sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify,

830
00:41:07,080 --> 00:41:09,640
Speaker 2: or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find

831
00:41:09,719 --> 00:41:13,360
Speaker 2: us live every weekday from Washington, DC at Noontimeeastern at

832
00:41:13,440 --> 00:41:14,480
Speaker 2: Bloomberg dot com.