WEBVTT - NFL Pro Week 8 Preview 0:00:00.190 --> 0:00:03.270 Welcome to NFL Pro's Week 8 Preview Show. Thank you 0:00:03.290 --> 0:00:06.570 for listening on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever 0:00:06.610 --> 0:00:08.770 you guys get your podcasts. Be sure to follow and 0:00:08.830 --> 0:00:11.930 subscribe to the show. Week 8 is here, and this 0:00:12.330 --> 0:00:15.110 is NFL Pro. Trevor Sycamore, Brett Coleman here with you guys, 0:00:15.170 --> 0:00:17.729 previewing some of the biggest games that we have in 0:00:17.810 --> 0:00:20.800 Week 8. But because we're at where we're at in 0:00:20.820 --> 0:00:21.590 the football calendar. 0:00:21.970 --> 0:00:22.709 We're also going to talk a. 0:00:22.690 --> 0:00:26.970 Little bit of trade deadline destination, play a little matchmaker. 0:00:26.990 --> 0:00:29.410 A lot of good stuff that we're going to get into, 0:00:29.470 --> 0:00:30.050 but first. 0:00:40.800 --> 0:00:43.470 Brett, we've got to address the backdrop. Where in the 0:00:43.510 --> 0:00:45.650 world are you, my friend? You're putting me to shame 0:00:45.700 --> 0:00:46.050 right now. 0:00:46.110 --> 0:00:46.710 Where are you? 0:00:47.010 --> 0:00:49.850 I am right next to Newport, Rhode Island. I'm out 0:00:49.890 --> 0:00:53.010 of town this week for a wedding because not everybody 0:00:53.030 --> 0:00:57.290 schedules their weddings around football season. So we are making 0:00:57.330 --> 0:00:59.570 it work this week. We are on the road. But, 0:00:59.610 --> 0:01:01.690 I mean, I've never been in this part of the country. 0:01:02.490 --> 0:01:05.480 And I have instantly fallen in love. The food is good. 0:01:05.900 --> 0:01:08.600 The views are beautiful. They actually have seasons out here. 0:01:08.620 --> 0:01:11.179 I'm a California kid, so anything under 70 is weird 0:01:11.260 --> 0:01:13.360 to me. So I actually get to wear a vest 0:01:13.440 --> 0:01:14.670 for once. It's great. 0:01:16.450 --> 0:01:18.910 I know that the beanie is sort of your signature 0:01:18.950 --> 0:01:21.970 look because I've watched enough of the Brett Coleman YouTube channel. 0:01:22.310 --> 0:01:25.490 But now, this perfect beanie weather for you. 0:01:25.610 --> 0:01:26.940 Yeah, no, it actually makes sense. 0:01:27.890 --> 0:01:29.970 At this part of the year, and so I'm very 0:01:30.010 --> 0:01:32.569 happy for you, my friend. Now you can wear the beanie, 0:01:32.950 --> 0:01:36.810 but actually not be sweating underneath it. So, you know, 0:01:36.850 --> 0:01:40.090 I'm very happy for you. Well, you're look-maxing the crap 0:01:40.150 --> 0:01:41.490 out of me right now, so let's just get to 0:01:41.510 --> 0:01:44.630 the analysis and hopefully... People won't focus too much on 0:01:44.670 --> 0:01:46.990 that here in this show. Bears and Seahawks, that's the 0:01:47.030 --> 0:01:49.280 first game that we're talking about. Not only is it 0:01:49.380 --> 0:01:52.280 a matchup of two of the best teams in the NFL, man, 0:01:52.400 --> 0:01:54.820 we're getting to the point of the season where there's 0:01:54.860 --> 0:01:59.120 a lot of playoff probability swings that can happen with 0:01:59.160 --> 0:02:01.200 wins and losses here. So this is a pretty high 0:02:01.260 --> 0:02:04.720 leverage game. If the Seahawks win this game, they have 0:02:04.760 --> 0:02:06.220 a 78% chance to make the playoffs. 0:02:06.280 --> 0:02:07.530 If they lose it, it goes down to 54%, so 0:02:07.550 --> 0:02:08.109 a 24% swing. And the Bears. 0:02:10.300 --> 0:02:11.700 If they win this game, it's all the way up 0:02:11.720 --> 0:02:14.700 to 82% chance to make the playoffs. And if they 0:02:14.720 --> 0:02:18.769 lose it, it goes down to 53, a 23% swing. 0:02:18.889 --> 0:02:20.410 So a lot of things to dig into here on 0:02:20.450 --> 0:02:22.050 this one. Brett, where do you want to start? 0:02:22.110 --> 0:02:25.310 When you think Seahawks and Bears for week 8 of 0:02:25.350 --> 0:02:27.240 this season, where does your mind go to first? 0:02:28.000 --> 0:02:29.440 I think about a team that wants to run the 0:02:29.460 --> 0:02:32.540 ball versus a team that is really good at stopping 0:02:32.580 --> 0:02:34.740 the run. And the thing that's most amazing to me 0:02:34.800 --> 0:02:37.440 about the Seahawks run defense is that they do it 0:02:37.710 --> 0:02:42.010 from two high safety structures. The Seahawks, if anything, that 0:02:42.030 --> 0:02:44.930 they're known for on defense, it's how much quarters and 0:02:44.950 --> 0:02:48.290 in particular how much quarter, quarter, half or half, quarter, 0:02:48.350 --> 0:02:51.460 quarter that they play. You know, cover six plus cover eight. 0:02:52.230 --> 0:02:53.889 And the fact that they're still able to stop the 0:02:53.930 --> 0:02:56.300 run to me speaks to how good their DBs are 0:02:56.340 --> 0:02:58.160 at tackling in space. You know, whether you want to 0:02:58.200 --> 0:03:00.100 call Nicky M and worry a DB or a linebacker 0:03:00.120 --> 0:03:02.859 at this point, you know, dealer's choice. But their actual 0:03:02.940 --> 0:03:05.519 true safeties that are lining up, you know, 10 yards 0:03:05.600 --> 0:03:08.410 plus off the line of scrimmage, they're top 10 in 0:03:08.470 --> 0:03:12.220 terms of average depth of tackle, meaning accuracy. how far 0:03:12.260 --> 0:03:14.700 past the line of scrimmage their average depth of tackle 0:03:14.740 --> 0:03:17.840 is at just 7.7 yards, which sounds like a lot, 0:03:17.919 --> 0:03:19.920 but remember, that's the average. So there's a lot of 0:03:20.000 --> 0:03:22.910 tackles that these safeties are making at 3, 4, 5 0:03:22.910 --> 0:03:26.270 yard depth while coming from 10 to 12 yards off 0:03:26.290 --> 0:03:28.710 the deck. And when you're making that many tackles and 0:03:28.730 --> 0:03:31.390 you're that good of a tackling team, that adds up 0:03:31.490 --> 0:03:33.660 over the course of a game to cut down on 0:03:33.680 --> 0:03:35.780 the number of second and shorts and make them second 0:03:35.800 --> 0:03:38.240 and medium, second and long, and to give yourself more 0:03:39.030 --> 0:03:41.810 advantageous third down positions as well. And so if you're 0:03:41.840 --> 0:03:45.520 looking at how this defense operates as a whole, it 0:03:45.580 --> 0:03:47.820 really starts with how they stop the run on early 0:03:47.860 --> 0:03:49.600 downs to make their late downs better. And you can't 0:03:49.640 --> 0:03:52.020 do that without good tackling safeties. Yeah, 100%. 0:03:52.020 --> 0:03:55.000 I mean, I was going to talk about Nicky Manwari 0:03:55.020 --> 0:03:57.540 at some point. I might as well talk about him 0:03:57.560 --> 0:03:59.690 now because I went back and I watched that game. 0:04:00.420 --> 0:04:02.940 the Seahawks played against the Chiefs. And I said on 0:04:02.980 --> 0:04:04.690 game day preview, I think this is going to be 0:04:04.730 --> 0:04:06.930 a struggle for Kenneth Walker. I think that the Seahawks 0:04:06.990 --> 0:04:08.870 know him very well, and I just think that it 0:04:08.890 --> 0:04:12.020 was a game that Lent itself towards him having one 0:04:12.060 --> 0:04:14.160 of his slower, if not the slowest, day. 0:04:14.020 --> 0:04:15.870 At the office that we've had so far this season. 0:04:16.290 --> 0:04:19.909 Nothing again for Walker. They are shutting him down. Loss 0:04:20.089 --> 0:04:20.850 of a yard. 0:04:21.610 --> 0:04:24.110 I think Nicky Manwari is a huge reason why. 0:04:24.170 --> 0:04:27.510 Because when you look at the 14 carries that Kenneth 0:04:27.550 --> 0:04:30.200 Walker had in that game against the Seahawks last week, 0:04:30.800 --> 0:04:33.160 if you look at just the players that are on 0:04:33.200 --> 0:04:36.680 the field, technically it would tell you that 13 of 0:04:36.760 --> 0:04:37.040 those 14 runs. 0:04:39.210 --> 0:04:41.640 The Seahawks were in nickel. And on the other one, 0:04:41.700 --> 0:04:43.619 they were in dime. So they had all their DBs 0:04:43.680 --> 0:04:45.600 on the field. But Brett, if you actually go and 0:04:45.700 --> 0:04:49.349 watch the plays, I counted out that they played four 0:04:49.390 --> 0:04:52.810 of those 14 snaps for Kenneth Walker Runs in a 0:04:53.000 --> 0:04:57.530 base formation where Nicky Manwari was straight up an off-ball linebacker, 0:04:57.750 --> 0:05:02.130 or even three of them coming in a 5-2 formation, 0:05:02.610 --> 0:05:06.540 stacking the line of scrimmage and not letting Kenneth Walker 0:05:06.820 --> 0:05:09.539 get to the outside with those outside zone rushing concepts, 0:05:09.600 --> 0:05:13.160 which is something that the Chicago Bears are going to 0:05:13.240 --> 0:05:14.020 want to do next. 0:05:14.430 --> 0:05:14.870 As well. 0:05:14.900 --> 0:05:17.810 When it comes to the Seahawks defending outside zone, they've 0:05:17.850 --> 0:05:21.130 allowed the fewest rush yards over expected. Obviously, last week 0:05:21.150 --> 0:05:23.370 was a huge boost into that as well. The fourth 0:05:23.410 --> 0:05:26.909 fewest yards per carry. The sixth fewest success rate rushing 0:05:27.110 --> 0:05:28.810 in the NFL. But when you look at the Bears 0:05:28.850 --> 0:05:32.150 in outside zone, 103 carries, that's the most in the NFL. 0:05:32.150 --> 0:05:36.790 472 rushing yards, second most in the NFL. 13 explosive plays, 0:05:37.089 --> 0:05:40.310 most in the NFL. So it really is the unstoppable 0:05:40.380 --> 0:05:43.520 force versus the immovable object. And I think Nicky Manwari 0:05:43.680 --> 0:05:48.849 is the chess piece for that because he played in 100% 0:05:48.850 --> 0:05:52.729 of the Seahawks defensive plays last week and it's because 0:05:53.070 --> 0:05:55.610 they feel like they can spread it out and go 0:05:55.670 --> 0:05:58.960 true nickel or true dime or they can rotate into 0:05:59.040 --> 0:06:01.340 base not based on who they have out there on 0:06:01.380 --> 0:06:05.089 the field but just where they align them that's True 0:06:05.430 --> 0:06:08.570 defensive versatility. So that, of course, I agree with you, 0:06:08.589 --> 0:06:12.050 is probably the swing in this game. How the Bears 0:06:12.350 --> 0:06:15.310 fare in the run game and in outside zones specifically, 0:06:15.330 --> 0:06:16.630 and then how the Seahawks defend it. 0:06:16.839 --> 0:06:19.080 And if you're looking at chess piece versus chess piece, 0:06:19.120 --> 0:06:22.339 this might be one of the premier matchups in terms 0:06:22.380 --> 0:06:25.659 of unique players and unique body types with unique skill sets. 0:06:25.680 --> 0:06:27.100 And Seattle, to me, is one of the few teams 0:06:27.140 --> 0:06:29.039 in the league that has somebody that can actually match 0:06:29.100 --> 0:06:33.539 up with Colston Loveland one-on-one, or... If they get caught 0:06:33.620 --> 0:06:36.980 formation-wise or with motion, and all of a sudden he's 0:06:37.100 --> 0:06:40.100 covering Luther Burden, the fact that he can cover either 0:06:40.140 --> 0:06:44.460 of those guys in space, how many DBs, linebackers, whatever 0:06:44.480 --> 0:06:45.700 you want to call them, how many of those even 0:06:45.740 --> 0:06:50.029 exist in the NFL? Four? Three, maybe? Herbert, pressure coming! 0:06:50.330 --> 0:06:54.789 Herbert is thrown down by Eamon Worry! On the other 0:06:54.830 --> 0:06:58.430 side of this matchup, I want to talk about Sam Darnold, because... Obviously, 0:06:58.810 --> 0:07:01.870 it hasn't looked quite the same this year as it 0:07:01.930 --> 0:07:03.970 has the last two years, right? The fact that they're 0:07:03.990 --> 0:07:06.190 force-feeding JSN so much and he's such a big part 0:07:06.210 --> 0:07:08.770 of the offense, while he is a super weapon and 0:07:08.830 --> 0:07:13.530 he is having a ridiculous, historically ridiculous season, he kind 0:07:13.610 --> 0:07:16.690 of is what they have. And I think that predictability 0:07:16.730 --> 0:07:19.150 in some ways has worked against them offensively. But with 0:07:19.270 --> 0:07:23.430 Darnold specifically and his overall production not being quite what 0:07:23.470 --> 0:07:25.870 it has been in the last couple years, I want 0:07:25.890 --> 0:07:30.530 to delineate between quick throws and in-rhythm throws. If you're 0:07:30.650 --> 0:07:33.650 looking at next-gen stats, they separate out average time to 0:07:33.690 --> 0:07:37.150 throw between 0 and 2.5 seconds, meaning it's a quick throw. 0:07:37.410 --> 0:07:39.690 And then they have in-rhythm throws, which is 2.5 to 0:07:39.690 --> 0:07:43.130 4 seconds. And then they have extended plays, which is 0:07:43.130 --> 0:07:45.440 4 plus seconds, which I don't know how many plays 0:07:45.480 --> 0:07:48.860 are designed to go 4 plus seconds, but generally not many. 0:07:49.620 --> 0:07:53.140 And if you're looking at Darnold in rhythm versus quick passing, 0:07:53.620 --> 0:07:57.570 his throws that are under 2.5 seconds, he has a 0:07:57.570 --> 0:08:01.190 105.9 passer rating. His throws that are quote-unquote in rhythm 0:08:01.490 --> 0:08:05.390 drops all the way down to 68.7. And last week 0:08:05.610 --> 0:08:09.190 against Kansas City, his average time to throw was 2.45 seconds. Remember, 0:08:09.240 --> 0:08:11.200 that's average, so he had a bunch of throws faster 0:08:11.220 --> 0:08:14.610 than that. His second quickest game in his career. And 0:08:14.650 --> 0:08:16.750 if I'm looking at Seattle and how they can really 0:08:16.790 --> 0:08:19.230 get their passing game to be more consistent, it's just 0:08:19.550 --> 0:08:23.360 calling things that get the ball out of Darnold's hands quicker. 0:08:23.800 --> 0:08:27.220 Because when it's just one decision and go, he's been 0:08:27.260 --> 0:08:33.959 a lot better this season. On the Chicago side of things, 0:08:34.240 --> 0:08:36.140 I almost want to get away from what they've been 0:08:36.160 --> 0:08:39.170 doing recently where they're kind of Brian Flores-y, putting a 0:08:39.170 --> 0:08:41.189 bunch of guys in the line of scrimmage, blitzing like crazy. 0:08:41.740 --> 0:08:44.200 If you're blitzing like crazy, it kind of reduces the 0:08:44.300 --> 0:08:47.160 offense to one decision. I want to make Darnold have 0:08:47.200 --> 0:08:50.760 to make multiple decisions. If you're looking at Sam versus 0:08:50.880 --> 0:08:54.660 Max Blitz this year, meaning sending six-plus rushers, he is 0:08:54.660 --> 0:08:59.510 9 of 14 for 106, 7.6 yards per attempt, three touchdowns, 0:08:59.570 --> 0:09:03.869 no picks, a 126.8 rating, and an average time to 0:09:03.890 --> 0:09:08.010 throw of 2.53 seconds. When teams rush four or fewer 0:09:08.130 --> 0:09:10.250 against him and they make him have to work deep 0:09:10.270 --> 0:09:12.809 to short, left to right, whatever it is, work through progressions, 0:09:13.230 --> 0:09:16.230 that's when there's been a lot more problems because there 0:09:16.290 --> 0:09:19.000 is less space to exploit with more coverage defenders in 0:09:19.030 --> 0:09:20.959 the back end, and you can kind of build that 0:09:21.020 --> 0:09:24.000 cage around him and compress the pocket around him, and 0:09:24.040 --> 0:09:25.700 he's just a worse quarterback that way. 0:09:30.809 --> 0:09:34.650 Okay, our researcher, Callie, put this together in a tab 0:09:34.670 --> 0:09:39.390 that literally just says, Absurd JSN Stats Rundown. So rather 0:09:39.429 --> 0:09:42.100 than try to weave it into specific storylines, I'm just 0:09:42.120 --> 0:09:43.780 going to feed all of this to you guys because 0:09:43.920 --> 0:09:45.680 they truly are absurd. 0:09:46.200 --> 0:09:47.720 It leads the NFL in yards this. 0:09:47.620 --> 0:09:48.360 Season, 867. 257 are over-expected. 0:09:48.380 --> 0:09:50.280 That's most of the NFL. 267 of them are yards 0:09:50.380 --> 0:09:52.400 after catch. 23.3% success rate per route. 0:09:52.400 --> 0:09:52.439 53. 0:10:00.860 --> 0:10:01.880 54.1% total EPA. 0:10:01.940 --> 0:10:04.120 That's the most since 2019 and the second most in 0:10:04.160 --> 0:10:06.860 the NGS era through seven weeks. Chris Godwin, shout out 0:10:06.880 --> 0:10:08.260 to the Buccaneers in 2019. 0:10:08.260 --> 0:10:09.140 Only one who had a higher. 0:10:09.140 --> 0:10:12.640 20 explosive receptions, most of the NFL, and he leads 0:10:12.700 --> 0:10:18.720 the NFL as an isolated receiver with 214 receiving yards. 0:10:18.740 --> 0:10:20.540 So you know how some of these receivers, okay, they'll 0:10:20.559 --> 0:10:22.520 be stacked to one side or they'll be in a 0:10:22.559 --> 0:10:25.100 bunch formation. It's, all right, I got to switch release, 0:10:25.140 --> 0:10:27.280 or I got one guy going vertical, one guy going out, 0:10:27.320 --> 0:10:28.740 and it just opens up one receiver. 0:10:28.780 --> 0:10:29.220 No, no, no, no. 0:10:29.740 --> 0:10:33.479 JSN's playing ethical football. He's playing ethical hoops out here 0:10:33.520 --> 0:10:36.840 where he is isolated to one side, and okay, he's. 0:10:36.760 --> 0:10:36.980 Got a. 0:10:38.790 --> 0:10:42.610 They just feed JSN anytime they possibly can. And for 0:10:42.670 --> 0:10:45.309 as much as they used him a ton last year, obviously, 0:10:45.630 --> 0:10:47.670 going into this year, you and I have talked about like, 0:10:47.700 --> 0:10:50.500 all right, when it's JSN and nothing else, is that 0:10:50.540 --> 0:10:55.220 really good enough? Dude, there have been certainly times already where, yeah, 0:10:55.300 --> 0:10:57.840 that's good enough. And I think that if you're the 0:10:57.900 --> 0:11:00.800 Seahawks and you know that hopefully the Cavalry's coming a 0:11:00.820 --> 0:11:02.400 little bit when it comes to the run game and 0:11:02.420 --> 0:11:05.130 guys in the backfield, you got to feel pretty good, 0:11:05.370 --> 0:11:07.470 especially if you win this game against Chicago this week. 0:11:08.340 --> 0:11:10.720 Also, by the way, the Seahawks just traded for Quentin Nelson, 0:11:10.800 --> 0:11:16.160 which probably should mention that. They had six runs stuffed 0:11:16.300 --> 0:11:19.490 last week, four of them, specifically in the B-gap where 0:11:19.510 --> 0:11:21.850 the guards are. So if you have Quentin Nelson on 0:11:21.950 --> 0:11:24.770 one side, Gray Zabel on the other, I can't imagine 0:11:24.790 --> 0:11:27.650 they're going to have six runs stuffed again this week. 0:11:27.670 --> 0:11:28.390 We stack plays. 0:11:28.410 --> 0:11:30.870 There's so many examples throughout the game of, hey, we 0:11:30.890 --> 0:11:33.420 got to play, and then we stack plays, and then, oh, 0:11:33.630 --> 0:11:35.230 something happened, and then we found a play, and. 0:11:35.429 --> 0:11:36.360 Then we stack more plays. 0:11:36.500 --> 0:11:37.179 Yeah! 0:11:38.510 --> 0:11:41.490 Chiefs and Broncos. Talk about the Chiefs and the Broncos. Brett, 0:11:41.510 --> 0:11:42.089 where do you want to start? 0:11:42.110 --> 0:11:43.900 You want to start on the, we'll talk about Bo 0:11:43.940 --> 0:11:46.040 Nix eventually because I think we have to every single 0:11:46.059 --> 0:11:47.679 time that we talk about the Broncos because there's a 0:11:47.720 --> 0:11:49.400 lot of variance in what he could be depending on 0:11:49.440 --> 0:11:51.080 what opponent they're going up against. You want to start 0:11:51.120 --> 0:11:52.760 with Nix or do you want to start somewhere else 0:11:52.780 --> 0:11:53.209 with this game? 0:11:53.429 --> 0:11:55.650 I mean, just kind of a random throwaway fact, JSN 0:11:55.690 --> 0:11:58.090 has more receiving first downs than both of these teams, 0:11:58.610 --> 0:12:01.690 entire receiving cores. So that kind of gives you context 0:12:01.710 --> 0:12:03.130 for what we're working here. Why wasn't that the absurd 0:12:03.150 --> 0:12:08.570 JSN stats? It should have been. Crazy, crazy stat. But 0:12:08.610 --> 0:12:11.110 that gives you an idea of how far ahead a 0:12:11.150 --> 0:12:13.949 JSN is from everybody else, but also where both of 0:12:13.990 --> 0:12:16.070 these receiving cores are at this year. I think for 0:12:16.130 --> 0:12:19.050 different reasons. I think the Broncos receiving core is talented. 0:12:19.450 --> 0:12:23.310 But the passing game overall hasn't been ideal, to be 0:12:23.390 --> 0:12:25.510 diplomatic about it. And then the Chiefs receiving core, I 0:12:25.530 --> 0:12:28.550 think Patrick Mahomes is playing really well, but their receiving 0:12:28.590 --> 0:12:30.890 core isn't that talented. So as of right now, both 0:12:30.910 --> 0:12:33.809 these passing games are struggling for very different reasons. I 0:12:33.830 --> 0:12:35.150 know you said you want to get to Bo Nix later. 0:12:35.410 --> 0:12:37.630 I feel like that kind of is the main story 0:12:37.650 --> 0:12:40.430 of this game, just because we saw what happened in 0:12:40.480 --> 0:12:44.020 week one, Bo versus Steve Spagnuolo and this defense. You're 0:12:44.040 --> 0:12:48.699 side-intercepted by the Chiefs' Mansoor Delane! He was atrocious. I 0:12:48.720 --> 0:12:51.060 don't think even Broncos fans could defend it. It was 0:12:51.160 --> 0:12:53.559 arguably his worst game of the year. And if you're 0:12:53.600 --> 0:12:56.790 looking at the Broncos against man coverage this season, which 0:12:56.809 --> 0:12:59.250 they faced a lot of in that week one matchup, 0:12:59.770 --> 0:13:03.970 he's got a completion percentage of 41.3%, which is obviously 0:13:04.030 --> 0:13:07.280 not great. EPA per dropback of negative 0.4, which is 0:13:07.400 --> 0:13:12.280 obviously also not great. Weirdly, 11.7 air yards per attempt 0:13:12.320 --> 0:13:14.800 when facing man coverage, which is the most in the NFL. 0:13:14.840 --> 0:13:16.559 It's one of the only times he actually does stretch 0:13:16.580 --> 0:13:18.440 the field is when he faces man. It's just he's 0:13:18.480 --> 0:13:21.950 not very good at actually completing the ball down the field. 0:13:22.270 --> 0:13:25.530 And overall, if you're looking at amount of targets that 0:13:25.570 --> 0:13:28.530 he throws against man, it's still a low volume thing. 0:13:28.570 --> 0:13:31.630 Like he just doesn't throw against man that often. And 0:13:31.650 --> 0:13:34.089 I think it's because he just he's not comfortable throwing 0:13:34.150 --> 0:13:36.760 into the tight windows that are required to throw into 0:13:37.160 --> 0:13:41.540 against man coverage. 11.5% tight window throw rate, which is 0:13:41.640 --> 0:13:46.460 sixth lowest in the NFL, 50.9% open target rate, which 0:13:46.520 --> 0:13:49.579 is sixth highest, which means he's only throwing it when 0:13:49.660 --> 0:13:52.589 his receivers are open. And if you're looking at wide 0:13:52.650 --> 0:13:54.989 open target rate, he's the third highest in the NFL 0:13:55.030 --> 0:13:59.170 at 31.2%. So His comfort zone is just targeting guys 0:13:59.230 --> 0:14:02.270 that are wide open, sitting in gaps in between zone 0:14:02.290 --> 0:14:05.050 defenders and kind of completing layups down the field, which 0:14:05.070 --> 0:14:07.530 I think factors into why his passing charts tend to 0:14:07.570 --> 0:14:10.309 look the way that they do. Whereas if you're playing 0:14:10.350 --> 0:14:12.890 a bunch of man coverage, he's really only going to 0:14:12.950 --> 0:14:15.880 throw it if it's a one-on-one down the boundary where 0:14:15.890 --> 0:14:18.260 there's only one guy he has to try to fit 0:14:18.280 --> 0:14:20.020 the ball in around. And that's just a low percentage 0:14:20.040 --> 0:14:20.720 throw to begin with. 0:14:21.070 --> 0:14:23.210 Yeah, and that's why Nick's has been, I think, so 0:14:23.250 --> 0:14:26.790 frustrating for me in the NFL because when I was 0:14:26.830 --> 0:14:28.810 watching him at Oregon, I was like, okay, this guy 0:14:28.830 --> 0:14:31.330 can operate the offense pretty well. He can keep things 0:14:31.410 --> 0:14:33.970 on script, but then he has the athletic ability. He's 0:14:33.990 --> 0:14:35.810 got an NFL arm, and obviously we've seen what he 0:14:35.830 --> 0:14:37.490 can do with his legs as well to give you 0:14:37.550 --> 0:14:41.450 those explosives. He's just not very confident and consistent when 0:14:41.530 --> 0:14:43.150 getting to that, and I think that's just been a 0:14:43.170 --> 0:14:46.240 frustrating part that hasn't become more consistent for him because 0:14:46.270 --> 0:14:47.340 I know that the talent's there. 0:14:47.640 --> 0:14:50.170 We just don't see it. on a regular basis from him. 0:14:50.410 --> 0:14:52.320 On the other side of things, because this game was 0:14:52.340 --> 0:14:55.160 31-10 when these two teams matched up in Week 1. 0:14:55.160 --> 0:14:56.300 It really was not close. 0:14:56.320 --> 0:14:58.100 And it was the Kenneth Walker sort of coming out 0:14:58.140 --> 0:15:01.440 party of, hey, this contract was absolutely well worth. 0:15:01.240 --> 0:15:03.460 It for this Kansas City Chiefs team. 0:15:03.540 --> 0:15:05.540 But, you know, when you look at the Broncos, I 0:15:05.580 --> 0:15:07.240 went back and I watched that game sort of getting 0:15:07.260 --> 0:15:10.640 ready for this preview here. And There's no other way 0:15:10.680 --> 0:15:12.320 to say it. I mean, I just think the Broncos 0:15:12.360 --> 0:15:14.760 kind of came out flat. And it's hard for me 0:15:14.860 --> 0:15:17.460 to say, well, you know, the Chiefs really took advantage 0:15:17.500 --> 0:15:19.360 of them here, here, and here. I guess when you 0:15:19.380 --> 0:15:22.840 talk about outside throws, that's an area where it might 0:15:22.900 --> 0:15:25.950 be a translatable or repeatable thing that they could still 0:15:26.000 --> 0:15:29.510 struggle with. The Chiefs had over 120 passing yards on 0:15:29.610 --> 0:15:32.830 outbreaking routes. They had over 120 passes when it comes 0:15:32.910 --> 0:15:35.970 to attacking the seam as well. And so The way 0:15:36.030 --> 0:15:39.690 that they really, really beat up on this Broncos team 0:15:39.930 --> 0:15:43.380 is in the run game. And watching that Broncos game 0:15:43.840 --> 0:15:46.960 was one where we said, okay, we have to talk 0:15:47.000 --> 0:15:49.120 about the missed tackles in week one because of how 0:15:49.160 --> 0:15:53.080 bad it was. Because this team had a 29.5% missed 0:15:53.340 --> 0:15:55.640 tackle rate against the Chiefs in week one. That was 0:15:55.660 --> 0:15:59.670 the highest rate since week three of 2023, which. 0:15:59.640 --> 0:16:01.110 Was also the Denver Broncos, by the way. 0:16:01.490 --> 0:16:04.630 But it was that lack of discipline, that lack of focus, those... 0:16:05.000 --> 0:16:07.560 those missed tackles and yeah of course like it was 0:16:07.580 --> 0:16:09.990 some of those outside zone runs what which we've seen 0:16:10.040 --> 0:16:12.490 from the Chiefs but also just up the middle as 0:16:12.550 --> 0:16:14.730 well like they were just getting a ton of push 0:16:14.790 --> 0:16:16.750 up the middle when they were running power or duo 0:16:16.810 --> 0:16:20.090 or just straight up individual man blocking concepts where they 0:16:20.110 --> 0:16:22.510 were just like hey you'll become that wall and take 0:16:22.550 --> 0:16:24.790 a step forward and eventually they did and it felt 0:16:24.810 --> 0:16:27.090 like the strength of the Chiefs offensive line was just 0:16:27.600 --> 0:16:31.140 straight up better that day. They had 248 yards allowed 0:16:31.340 --> 0:16:33.620 after missed tackles. That was the most in a single 0:16:33.660 --> 0:16:36.730 game since 2018 as well. So if you're the Broncos, 0:16:36.770 --> 0:16:39.490 you got to be able to say, we took a 0:16:39.510 --> 0:16:41.450 look at the tape against the Chiefs in week one. 0:16:41.950 --> 0:16:45.270 And even though it wasn't close on the scoreboard, we 0:16:45.340 --> 0:16:48.370 feel as though we did a lot of beating ourselves 0:16:48.430 --> 0:16:50.210 in that game. And I think that's the approach that 0:16:50.230 --> 0:16:52.510 you have to have if you're the Broncos. So it 0:16:52.530 --> 0:16:53.930 just kind of comes down to you got to be 0:16:53.950 --> 0:16:55.370 a lot more focused. You got to be a lot 0:16:55.410 --> 0:16:57.870 more disciplined. And that's really where the difference in this 0:16:57.910 --> 0:16:59.950 game has to be is it's just got to be so, 0:16:59.990 --> 0:17:01.960 so much better. And the floor has to be so 0:17:02.000 --> 0:17:04.410 much higher than what it was in week one, obviously. 0:17:05.060 --> 0:17:07.800 As of recording this show, we're not 100% sure if 0:17:08.260 --> 0:17:10.980 Patrick Sertan's going to be playing. We're on Sertan Watch 0:17:11.020 --> 0:17:15.399 this week. So it's possible this note doesn't match up 0:17:15.480 --> 0:17:18.709 as well. When we get to game time, he obviously 0:17:18.730 --> 0:17:20.990 is going to have a massive impact on this game 0:17:21.050 --> 0:17:24.380 because he's Patrick Sertan. How could he not? And in particular, 0:17:24.450 --> 0:17:29.419 we've had this interesting trend where Kenneth Walker is running 0:17:29.480 --> 0:17:32.280 against split safety looks way more than you expect for 0:17:32.300 --> 0:17:34.619 a running back as productive as he is because teams 0:17:34.820 --> 0:17:37.280 are playing these split safety looks to stop crossing routes. 0:17:37.600 --> 0:17:40.730 The Broncos, just as a unit, are very good against 0:17:40.790 --> 0:17:44.090 crossing routes because they have an explosive secondary. They communicate 0:17:44.130 --> 0:17:47.520 really well. And when you have Patrick Sertan, there's not 0:17:47.540 --> 0:17:49.100 really any route that's going to work against him. And 0:17:49.400 --> 0:17:52.260 Riley Moss is a high-end CB2 as well. So I'm 0:17:52.340 --> 0:17:56.480 wondering if that bread and butter of crossing routes is 0:17:56.540 --> 0:17:59.970 going to get eliminated for a second straight week because 0:18:00.050 --> 0:18:03.310 Seattle similarly is equipped to handle these crossing routes really well. 0:18:03.330 --> 0:18:06.130 They play split safety a bunch anyway. If you take 0:18:06.170 --> 0:18:09.190 that away and if you have a better tackling performance 0:18:09.210 --> 0:18:11.310 against Kenneth Walker than what they had in week one, 0:18:11.650 --> 0:18:14.890 what is the third punch that Kansas City has? I'm 0:18:14.950 --> 0:18:17.359 still waiting to see that. They obviously didn't have it 0:18:17.400 --> 0:18:20.159 against Seattle and they got trounced, right? No snaps in 0:18:20.180 --> 0:18:22.379 the red zone that entire game. This could be a 0:18:22.720 --> 0:18:25.270 very low scoring game. I don't know if either team 0:18:25.290 --> 0:18:27.950 would really be able to crack 17 points. 0:18:28.270 --> 0:18:30.550 Every week when you play a game, you have to 0:18:30.590 --> 0:18:32.750 hear one thing. There's a way to win each one 0:18:32.770 --> 0:18:35.720 of these games. We just got to promise ourselves we're 0:18:35.740 --> 0:18:36.160 still improving. 0:18:37.200 --> 0:18:39.700 You mentioned how Nix has kind of struggled under pressure. Man, 0:18:39.780 --> 0:18:42.820 I think it's the complete opposite with Jared Goff, who 0:18:43.100 --> 0:18:45.220 is where I want to go with this Detroit Lions 0:18:45.500 --> 0:18:47.830 and Minnesota Vikings game that we're talking about next. 0:18:48.410 --> 0:18:49.909 I think Goff is. 0:18:50.490 --> 0:18:52.750 Underrated at this point, and this is coming from somebody 0:18:52.790 --> 0:18:55.530 who is a Jared Goff skeptic. When I've done these 0:18:56.010 --> 0:19:02.970 preseason quarterback rankings, I'd have Goff anywhere between 13 and 18, 0:19:02.970 --> 0:19:05.409