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Speaker 1: Yeah, Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane.

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Speaker 1: Always with Michael McKee. Daily we bring you insight from

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Speaker 1: the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. Find

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Surveillance on iTunes, SoundCloud, Bloomberg dot Com, and of

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Speaker 1: course on the Bloomberg Well, let's bring in tourist to slockdown. Chef.

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Speaker 1: Global economist for the Dutch Bank Securities Unit, Jim Bullard

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Speaker 1: said he sees this as a liquidity issue. It's not

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Speaker 1: a question of a flattening yield curve signaling anything about

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Speaker 1: the direction of the global economy. Yeah. I think that

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Speaker 1: liquidity issue is a diplomatic version of saying that the

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Speaker 1: rest of the world really matters for US rates, both

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Speaker 1: in the front end and in the long end. And

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Speaker 1: I think that's showing up not only as the business

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Speaker 1: cycle abroad being a problem. Is not the economic the

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Speaker 1: problems that we have where it's uncertain how long time

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Speaker 1: it will take before we'll get back on track in

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Speaker 1: Europe and for that matter, in several emerging markets, but

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Speaker 1: it's also now this added political dimension this week that

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Speaker 1: has been pushing us US down and therefore created this

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Speaker 1: significant hunt for yield into US fixed income. It's I

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Speaker 1: put it to somebody today, when you get this kind

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Speaker 1: of uncertainty and you start running scared, you hide under

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Speaker 1: the bed, and U S treasuries are the bad. That's

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Speaker 1: that's a good picture. I mean, I think that the

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Speaker 1: problem is for US rates investors, either if you're a foreigner,

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Speaker 1: if you're domestically based, that you look at US rates

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Speaker 1: and you normally say this should be driven by fundamentals

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Speaker 1: and as bullet also set and recognized completely together with

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Speaker 1: yelling and everyone else, and therefore see the US is

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Speaker 1: close to full capacity. Think about it. If we since

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Speaker 1: two thousand nine have been saying, okay, where do you

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Speaker 1: think tenure rate will be in six seven years? Nobody

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Speaker 1: would have guessed that they would be so much lower

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Speaker 1: than what they were even at the time. It's just

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Speaker 1: a very spectacular period where we've been through a set

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Speaker 1: of shocks, most importantly shocks from it broad and the

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Speaker 1: decynchronization of the global business cycle. That has been a

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Speaker 1: very very important drive of why US rates up a

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Speaker 1: seat that's safe haven headline, Well, you know it's it

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Speaker 1: just feeds into the whole thing, the question the uncertainty

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Speaker 1: put it that way. Mike Michael Gove was running for

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Speaker 1: to be the head of the Conservative Party in England

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Speaker 1: and would likely become Prime Minister if he is successful.

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Speaker 1: Has been out arguing for his campaign, and he has

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Speaker 1: just said that he does not expect an Article fifty

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Speaker 1: trigger this year. Article fifty the official formal announcement that

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Speaker 1: Britain would be withdrawing from the EU. So well, and

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Speaker 1: I would I would also notice the other headline buried

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Speaker 1: in the mix, Mr gov we are not going to

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Speaker 1: have a second Scottish independence referendum. I would suggest Mr

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Speaker 1: Gove that that's not up to him. You said, uh,

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Speaker 1: you know, if the Scots want to hold a referendum,

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Speaker 1: they will hold a referendum. The I mean, you could

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Speaker 1: read too much into it. So I will just say

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Speaker 1: one more and then I will stop, because it could

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Speaker 1: mean that he's not going to triggle our Article fifty

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Speaker 1: at all, that this is just the whole thing is

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Speaker 1: a red herring and the Scotts don't need to have

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Speaker 1: another referenum. That's the kind of uncertainty tours and that

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Speaker 1: we're seeing in the world today. Yeah, and I triggered

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Speaker 1: an Article fifty in some sense you could say, well,

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Speaker 1: maybe uncertain you will hang over markets for the rest

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Speaker 1: of this year. But at the same time, all these

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Speaker 1: speculations about when will they do it, will they do it,

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Speaker 1: will they do it at all? The petition not to

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Speaker 1: leave I mean, and so have a second referendum. It's

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Speaker 1: just incredit difficult for markets to assess and get your

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Speaker 1: head around. How do I quantify these risks? Come on,

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Speaker 1: you guys are living this. Your beautiful offices are on

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Speaker 1: the wall in London. I don't want you to speak

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Speaker 1: for David Folcus Landel, I certainly don't want you to

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Speaker 1: speak for John Crime. But Mervin King, Olivier Blanchard basically

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Speaker 1: say well, everybody calmed down, we'll move on this to

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Speaker 1: some form of normality. And we had somebody on the

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Speaker 1: other day that said the one reset this currency. Are

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Speaker 1: we going to move on to a normality? Well, we're

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Speaker 1: waiting for the wolf to come, if you will, for

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Speaker 1: several years now, and the wolf basically hasn't arrived, if anything,

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Speaker 1: has just gotten worse on the number of fronts. So

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Speaker 1: if normality means the expectation which many investors I talked

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Speaker 1: to have that rates are about to move higher, it

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Speaker 1: is definitely going to take quite some time before we

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Speaker 1: get there. We need a lot more adjustment on the

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Speaker 1: currency side. We need a lot more adjustment also on

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Speaker 1: the domestic side, and that's something that's just not very

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Speaker 1: helpful if you have the view that rates are going

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Speaker 1: to go up. So that speaks to the uncertainty hanging

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Speaker 1: around for a while and global growth being weak for

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Speaker 1: an extended period. Still, what is your GDP number for

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Speaker 1: the US right now? Are we had a we had

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Speaker 1: escape velocity two point eight three g d P. So

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Speaker 1: the Atlanta fat estimate, the latest one has GDP growth

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Speaker 1: at two point six So in that sense, it's pretty

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Speaker 1: clear from that that the in Q two we are

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Speaker 1: not in that recession. They big on certainty. Here is

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Speaker 1: what would this mean brexit for US GDP and the

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Speaker 1: coming quarters. The best guesses we believe that it will

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Speaker 1: have a negative impact on UK GDP of one percent

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Speaker 1: basically zero point for in the your area and basically

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Speaker 1: half of that in the US. But that's relatively small

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Speaker 1: impact on the US. So as such, you also look

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Speaker 1: at where tenure rates not today and ask, well, brexit

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Speaker 1: if the consensus says this is only a few tents

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Speaker 1: on GDP, then that shouldn't have that significant impact on

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Speaker 1: US rates, which tells you that is not domestic US

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Speaker 1: economic conditions that are driving US rate. Is again either

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Speaker 1: safe to have safe haven flows all the watching on

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Speaker 1: certainty coming from the rest of the world. What does

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Speaker 1: it do to the markets when you have you know,

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Speaker 1: the central banks of the world so heavily involved, either

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Speaker 1: as the buyer of last resort or as the people

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Speaker 1: telling other people what to buy the you know, the

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Speaker 1: chief fixed income strategies to the world, as Mark Kearney

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Speaker 1: right now, Well, this is a really important question. I mean,

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Speaker 1: think about the most portfolio managers, both in equities and

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Speaker 1: in fixed income. They have an NBA where they were

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Speaker 1: brought up doing bottom up analysis. They sit and says,

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Speaker 1: what is your cash flow of this company? What is management?

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Speaker 1: Do they have products in the pipeline? And therefore, as surprises,

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Speaker 1: should per that approach be driven by the bottom up

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Speaker 1: you and at the moment, as surprise, simply not driven

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Speaker 1: by the bottom up analysis. Is during much more by

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Speaker 1: liquidity and which is a whole different story. It's a

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Speaker 1: whole different way of looking at assets, which basically means

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Speaker 1: that macro has become such a dominant theme rather than

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Speaker 1: the CFA bottom up analysis of whether companies are selling

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Speaker 1: more or less products, and that's a very very different

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Speaker 1: way of doing asset pricing. It's much more the portfolio

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Speaker 1: model in terms of what liquidity compared to the bottom

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Speaker 1: up analysis of individual products. There you go, Tom, you

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Speaker 1: wasted your time getting You should have been a central

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Speaker 1: banker instead if you had, if you'd spent your career

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Speaker 1: on the board of governors, you'd better being older. First,

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Speaker 1: I don't want to get to be heels in a moment.

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Speaker 1: But let's first talk about the state of the American consumer.

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Speaker 1: We saw spending your income and spending this week. People

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Speaker 1: do math, They come up with great numbers for disposable

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Speaker 1: income growth, and yet everywhereld I see for sales signs,

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Speaker 1: sales signs arguing about sluggish consumers. I don't get how's

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Speaker 1: the consumer? So the consumer is actually okay if you

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Speaker 1: think about it from a fat perspective. What drives consumption?

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Speaker 1: The first driver consumption is if you have a job,

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Speaker 1: and jobs are actually okay, so in that sense we

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Speaker 1: have support from there. The next driver is your wealth.

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Speaker 1: Wealth is also very high with the stock market wealth

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Speaker 1: being so up so much, and also home prices being up,

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Speaker 1: so that's also supporting consumption. The next issue is all

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Speaker 1: the prices have fallen a lot, so that should also

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Speaker 1: be a supporting consumption. And finally, interest rates are still

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Speaker 1: very low so it's easy to borrow. So all four variables,

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Speaker 1: if you will, on the right hand side that are

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Speaker 1: the predictors of consumer spending are actually saying that consumptions

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Speaker 1: should be higher than where it is today. So that's

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Speaker 1: why it's been a little bit of a puzzle. White

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Speaker 1: consumption has been weak for the latter part of two

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Speaker 1: thousand fifteen, but we have seen in the last few

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Speaker 1: months and nice move up, so the US consumer is

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Speaker 1: actually doing good. There are some very important differences if

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Speaker 1: you look at consumer confidence in particular. Consumer confidence for

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Speaker 1: the last six months has actually been moving down on

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Speaker 1: for people that are fifty five years and older, but

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Speaker 1: it's actually been moving up for the millennials people that

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Speaker 1: are less than thirty five, So there's a gap opening

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Speaker 1: up in terms of who is more excited from a

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Speaker 1: consumption perspective. But gen whenly speaking, US consumption has been

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Speaker 1: doing well, and an important point to your question, Tom,

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Speaker 1: is that I think up at what consumption is. Consumption

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Speaker 1: is just not your basket only when you go down

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Speaker 1: and do your grocery shopping. Two thirds of your consumer

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Speaker 1: spinning is services, and of the total basket of consumption,

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Speaker 1: forty was in his housing and services means housing, transportation, education, healthcare, recreation.

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Speaker 1: Those services components. Again two thirds of your consumer spinning.

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Speaker 1: I've relatively unimpacted by the rest of the world. Mike, Mike,

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Speaker 1: this is important. It's brilliant, Torsten. I would suggest that

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Speaker 1: people don't look at their rent or their mortgage is consumption.

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Speaker 1: It's like John Tucker, I mean, help me here. It's

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Speaker 1: like the retire It's like the required check every month,

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Speaker 1: first thing I pay. Yeah, and there your consumption is

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Speaker 1: probably up. True, we we tend not to think that,

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Speaker 1: and we also don't tend to think we have designed

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Speaker 1: a tax code that hides a lot of consumption as well.

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Speaker 1: You get you get very cheap healthcare because you have

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Speaker 1: an insurance plan that pays for it. Your employer is

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Speaker 1: actually paying for that insurance in most cases, or at

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Speaker 1: least a large portion of it. But it comes you

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Speaker 1: don't see it because it doesn't come out of your

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Speaker 1: paycheck comes with forehand. So whatever benefits you've got, that

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Speaker 1: is consumption as well, which is interesting because our inflation

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Speaker 1: statistics towards that have been distorted by the way this

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Speaker 1: is all uh handled because we don't know we get

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Speaker 1: these revisions once they figure out what the healthcare costs

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Speaker 1: change are and and and it it kind of makes

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Speaker 1: it hard to forecast where inflation is. And healthcare costs

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Speaker 1: are your copay, it's everything that cost associated with medical

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Speaker 1: services and that has been now been moving somewhat higher

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Speaker 1: and the level of growth and inflation and that has

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Speaker 1: definitely been well above the fits talget of two for

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Speaker 1: quite an extended period. So the bottom line is, don't

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Speaker 1: confuse your grocery shopping where you see prices go down,

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Speaker 1: and as Tom just said, you see for sale in

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Speaker 1: many stores, including here in Manhattan. But you should also

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Speaker 1: look at what other parts of your consumer spending actually doing,

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Speaker 1: and there you are seeing more inflation in rents also

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Speaker 1: and again services transportation more broadly, My to guarantees this morning.

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Speaker 1: One people are shocked by low rates and to nobody

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Speaker 1: believes it towards them. Just said, people look at rent

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Speaker 1: and they go it's not consumption, and well, they look

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Speaker 1: at they look at prices, and they say, it's not

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Speaker 1: true that inflation is low because whatever it is I

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Speaker 1: bought this week is higher. Well, in some sense, it's

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Speaker 1: very unusual. Consumption is not the kind of consumption that

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Speaker 1: creates a lot of jobs in stores and factories, etcetera.

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Speaker 1: So that's why it's it's it is. It is from

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Speaker 1: a statistical perspective, perceived as consumer spending. But you're right,

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Speaker 1: it is not something you think of normally. I should

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Speaker 1: demand more of this product than prices go up. The

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Speaker 1: real issue, and Jim Billy was talking about this, he's

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Speaker 1: he's incorporated into his model, is not what consumers are doing.

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Speaker 1: They're spending. It's the guys in the C suite, the businessman,

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Speaker 1: who aren't spending, and productivity is low and business investment

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Speaker 1: is low. Is there something you can do about that?

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Speaker 1: That that's very important, Mike. Remember, from a GDP perspective,

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Speaker 1: GPS consumer spending so so far, so good, but roughly

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Speaker 1: around is a business fixed investment or CAPYS And you're

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Speaker 1: right on the CAPIC side, which is much more cyclical

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Speaker 1: and therefore much more important from a business side and perspective,

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Speaker 1: CAPEX has unfortunately been very, very weak because the c

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Speaker 1: suite has exactly it's just say, Mike not been unleashing

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Speaker 1: the significant amount of cash that they have. They have

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Speaker 1: been using it for purposes as we talked about earlier,

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Speaker 1: that are not very helpful for creating jobs. Might help

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Speaker 1: me here with the yield structure, I see not the

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Speaker 1: Tim Cook is short of cash. But he can go

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Speaker 1: out today and buy what General Motors, anything he wants,

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Speaker 1: General Electric and get what a negative yield? If he

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Speaker 1: goes over to Switzerland, they'll pay Tim Cook to take

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Speaker 1: their money. Yeah. I suspect he doesn't have a whole

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Speaker 1: lot of apples stash in Switzerland. But um, that's the

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Speaker 1: question is what's going to incent people to invest to

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Speaker 1: get a long her term payoff. Right now, it's all

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Speaker 1: about getting your capital return rather than return on capital.

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Speaker 1: I understand that Mr Bullard has a public duty to

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Speaker 1: tow the line, but this is truly extraordinary torts us lock.

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Speaker 1: Thank you so much generous of you this morning. Well,

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Speaker 1: this has been a global and the Brexit vote has

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Speaker 1: been a global issue. We're seeing the playout seeing that

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Speaker 1: play out in yields around the world, including an emerging markets.

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Speaker 1: I'm beside his managing director and head of black Rocks

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Speaker 1: Emerging Markets crossover team. He joins us now and uh emer.

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Speaker 1: How much of an effect is it going to have

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Speaker 1: on emerging markets? Obviously it removes a level of concern

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Speaker 1: that interest rates in the US are going to go

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Speaker 1: up too much, But does it really add much of

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Speaker 1: a tail wind to the markets you follow? Of course,

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Speaker 1: at the end of the day, it's a shock, right,

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Speaker 1: It's it's it's a shock both strategically but also stock

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Speaker 1: in terms of growth. Global growth is it's going to

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Speaker 1: have to be downward shifted, downw adjusted as a result

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Speaker 1: of a very large economy going through a shock, like

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Speaker 1: like Britain. Having said that, against that, you have a

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Speaker 1: policy reaction by major center bankers who are extremely aggressively

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Speaker 1: and increasingly so, as we saw yesterday with leaks reports

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Speaker 1: that potentially the easy b is going to relax capital keys,

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Speaker 1: which is a technical terms for even more, more, more,

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Speaker 1: more and more accommodation. So you put this together, it's

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Speaker 1: a it's a moderate shock on growth with a very

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Speaker 1: aggressive policy accommodation and lower rates, and that's usually a

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Speaker 1: good place for imagine markets we're not getting the the

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Speaker 1: risk of very very sharp slow down in growth, but

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Speaker 1: we're getting significant support from policy makers. So e M

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Speaker 1: assets should get a bit here. But what's the growth happening?

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Speaker 1: What's the growth outlook for emerging market? Because emerging markets

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Speaker 1: the story has always been a growth story, absolutely, and

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Speaker 1: that's at the end of the day, I mean, that's

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Speaker 1: the flying anointment. E M growth is having absolutely no

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Speaker 1: pulse here. It's it continues to be very disappointing. Most

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Speaker 1: of the major economies are in the M are either

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Speaker 1: very weak or some of them are even in recession

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Speaker 1: um and and at the end of the day, it's

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Speaker 1: tough to be strategically excited about emerging markets without actually

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Speaker 1: seeing growth resuming against However, valuations are attractive. A lot

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Speaker 1: of the prices in emergine markets are priced in this

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Speaker 1: this this this negative growth outlook, and you're getting right now,

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Speaker 1: this policy reaction, this policy response. Thunder bankers are supporting

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Speaker 1: us and helping us, and that's that's a good thing.

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Speaker 1: So I don't want to say it's a tactical trade

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Speaker 1: for now, but it's it's it's it's something that we

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Speaker 1: do the short term. Right now, I mean, we've we've

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Speaker 1: followed from a distance dollar pace, so Mexican pace, so

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Speaker 1: ever weaker getting out through nineteen paces uper dollar again

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Speaker 1: in coming back a little bit in the last few days,

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Speaker 1: just central banks and ministers of a virgin markets have

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Speaker 1: any power now or do they have any control of

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Speaker 1: their destiny or they strictly the will of the European

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Speaker 1: banking system. Michael Gove, Boris Johnson and Jenny Yellen. After

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Speaker 1: Michael gov is probably more important now Augustine car Serence

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Speaker 1: in Mexico or Donald Trump for that matter, but I

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Speaker 1: wouldn't take it onto that extreme right thunder banker still matter,

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Speaker 1: especially sounder banker is with credibility, And what the Mexicans

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Speaker 1: did last night yesterday is very impressive in the face

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Speaker 1: of poesy accommodation alswhere in the world they decided to

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Speaker 1: hike in this bitch. This is their second hike in

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Speaker 1: three months months. Rates are now a hundred best points

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Speaker 1: higher than they were three months ago in Mexico, and

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Speaker 1: there isn't they're doing it even though potentially sort of

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Speaker 1: a Mexico itself does not necessarily deserve higher interests, but

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Speaker 1: there isn't they're doing it is because they want to

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Speaker 1: support the currency because the don see at nineteen is

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Speaker 1: introducing inflationary shocks, it's enforcing financially instability. So they've decided

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Speaker 1: that financial stability is more important than growth for them,

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Speaker 1: and that's a policy choice that is to be commended.

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Speaker 1: I mean, in the long term, financial stability, strength of

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Speaker 1: currency is an important factor for for for mature emersition markets.

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Speaker 1: We've been talking a lot about Brexit and the impact

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Speaker 1: that it is having on emerging markets, UH, and it's

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Speaker 1: having our markets around the world. The story earlier this

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Speaker 1: year without Brexit, but it was China and China's slowed

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Speaker 1: down and the impact that has which seems to be

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Speaker 1: more director than what's going on in Great Britain. Absolutely,

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Speaker 1: at the end of the day, UM, it's it's China

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Speaker 1: that matters much much more for us. And if you

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Speaker 1: look at what's happening in China's last three months, there

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Speaker 1: are really um three things that have shifted the story

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Speaker 1: and reduced that there is reduced on set into At one. UM,

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Speaker 1: they've gone through a very aggressive stimulus in in the

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Speaker 1: second quarter early in the second quarter. Now admittedly UM

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Speaker 1: they're doubling down on bath policies, but nonetheless familiars helps

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Speaker 1: in the short term, which brings me the second thing.

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Speaker 1: The economy is stabilizing, um sometimesing a the mediocre level,

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Speaker 1: but no longer contracting, no longer decided anything very sharply.

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Speaker 1: And the third thing that that is happening also is

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Speaker 1: that they seem to have controlled their foreign exchange regime.

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Speaker 1: The currency while continues to weaken, and it's continuing to weaken,

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Speaker 1: it's no longer triggering the kind of capital outcos that

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Speaker 1: scared us in in February. So you have you have

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Speaker 1: stronger growth with policy support and a stable currency with

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Speaker 1: knockout outs those a lot of that terrorists what it

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Speaker 1: does is gone and and that's that's that's a very

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Speaker 1: positive at least in absence of a negative for emertional markets.

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Speaker 1: Can you predict forward what will be the institutional response

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Speaker 1: of emerging markets to the wonder of what's going on

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Speaker 1: in the G three or G four world? Well, they

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Speaker 1: use the eye not the world thing, but will they

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Speaker 1: use the I m f A is a conduit to scream,

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Speaker 1: will they use the U N? How do they protest

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Speaker 1: the behavior of developed markets? That's that's a that's a

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Speaker 1: great question. At the end of the day, we sort

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Speaker 1: of list globalization starts at home, and the first thing

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Speaker 1: that we need to ask ourselves this what is the

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Speaker 1: action function of these countries domestically? What are they doing?

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Speaker 1: Are they following with I had to say that the

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Speaker 1: responsibility of developed market policymakers or or do they show

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Speaker 1: up their their their policies at home? And the good

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Speaker 1: news so far is that within emergial markets itself in

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Speaker 1: home locally that is actually in terms of policy response,

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Speaker 1: not that bad. Right then we look at what's happening

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Speaker 1: in Largentina. They've they've they've completely rejected responsibility and then

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Speaker 1: moving towards a much more policy, much more responsible side

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Speaker 1: of policies. Arguably the same thing is happening in Brazil. Um,

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Speaker 1: the same thing is happening Indonesia. So at home, I

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Speaker 1: think the policy action function in many of these countries

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Speaker 1: is proving to be much more pleasant than I would

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Speaker 1: have thought given the shocks then I would have thought

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Speaker 1: a year ago or two years ago. Externally, though, um,

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Speaker 1: clearly the AMF is going to be the place where

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Speaker 1: they need to go to if, if, if every support

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Speaker 1: is needed and the funding is available, at this stage

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Speaker 1: for them from the m F if they need to,

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Speaker 1: just like I find it fascinating how Eastern Europe is

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Speaker 1: an example response to what you and I have observed

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Speaker 1: in the last fifteen days. I'm curious about Brazil because

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Speaker 1: the it would be a big story at any time.

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Speaker 1: But in uh month or so we're gonna see the

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Speaker 1: Olympics there, what is They're gonna get a lot of publicity.

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Speaker 1: What is happening with Brazil. We've had the change in administration,

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Speaker 1: but has there been a change in investor psychology. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: you're starting to see a troughing. You definitely starting to

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Speaker 1: see a troughing of of negative expectations. All indicators look

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Speaker 1: at at this point are no longer turning stuff anymore,

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Speaker 1: especially at the confidence indicates consumer, household, an enterprise sector.

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Speaker 1: It's time to see also the economy stabilizing again. Still

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Speaker 1: in recession, but it's no longer contracting anymore. And that's

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Speaker 1: all because of the politics. The politics has shifted. The

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Speaker 1: problem is that it's not over yet. We sten have

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Speaker 1: there's this big impeachment trial coming up in August that

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Speaker 1: we're all going to be watching very carefully. There's also

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Speaker 1: a the ability of the new president to be able

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Speaker 1: to deliver what he promised. But as of now, I mean,

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Speaker 1: this is a sea change in terms of politics, and

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Speaker 1: it's triggering with it or unleashing with it, a stabilization

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Speaker 1: of economics. And if the politics improves, the economics will

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Speaker 1: improve in Brazil. And and that big story for seventeen

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Speaker 1: what yields can I pick up an equality emerging market?

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Speaker 1: How many beeps over one point for to eight? I mean, listen,

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Speaker 1: if you don't want to take f X risk, right,

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Speaker 1: if you want to buy something with no just just

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Speaker 1: credit risks, and that the high quality in solid space

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Speaker 1: you're picking up for d and depending on the country,

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Speaker 1: some convites slightly more than that. So if you're willing

400
00:21:08,000 --> 00:21:10,880
Speaker 1: to be guts here and take some foreign exchangers can

401
00:21:10,920 --> 00:21:13,120
Speaker 1: take local market traits, you can pick up much more.

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Speaker 1: Brezil today is that fourteen and a quarter percent the

403
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Speaker 1: policy in r SO so Brazil's trading twelve twelve basis

404
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Speaker 1: points over full faith and credit us absolutely. But again

405
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Speaker 1: to do that you need to be able willing to

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Speaker 1: take a Brazil risk as well, which is which is

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Speaker 1: UH an uncertain currency at the best. Tell me about

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Speaker 1: commodities and the linkage in the commodity e M. Right now,

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Speaker 1: we've been so distracted we've barely paid attention to oil,

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Speaker 1: essentially rock. Here I'm looking for my copper quote, folks,

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Speaker 1: I haven't looked at copper in ages. Can't find it

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Speaker 1: right now. But tell me about medals in commodities. That

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Speaker 1: we'll keep on going by the same story, which is

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Speaker 1: the absence of negatives has been a huge support for

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Speaker 1: the much market for asset. What see change between February

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Speaker 1: and today. It always twenty six, it's fifty right now underneath,

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Speaker 1: by the way, look at soy and wheat and all

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Speaker 1: these things that that emerging markets um a trade and

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Speaker 1: and that's a very powerful support emaginal markets broadly. Now, listen,

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Speaker 1: there's a lot of manufacturers in the M, especially in Asia,

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Speaker 1: but the emerging markets that we tend to to to

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Speaker 1: the higher yielding countries tend to be commodity countries, and

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Speaker 1: the Brazils and South Africas and the Indonesians of the world.

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Speaker 1: And those are countries that are benefiting from from these

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Speaker 1: levels of communities, partly because of supply reductions, partly because

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Speaker 1: demand is proving to be much stronger, and partly because

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Speaker 1: the dollar is weaker. The big dollar is weaker, and

428
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Speaker 1: that's awful. That's right where I wanted to go and

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Speaker 1: this interview, I ever said, I look at what has

430
00:22:47,520 --> 00:22:50,719
Speaker 1: not occurred over the last week and a half, and

431
00:22:50,720 --> 00:22:54,000
Speaker 1: it's stronger US dollar. I mean, it's remarkable. D x

432
00:22:54,200 --> 00:22:57,080
Speaker 1: Y is in a zone, in a range. When you

433
00:22:57,320 --> 00:23:02,360
Speaker 1: sift black rocks abilities into your em perview, what will

434
00:23:02,400 --> 00:23:06,439
Speaker 1: the dollar do medium term as in measured by by

435
00:23:06,440 --> 00:23:09,000
Speaker 1: by a long number of months, you cannot not be

436
00:23:09,119 --> 00:23:10,840
Speaker 1: but you have to be bullished on the dollar. But

437
00:23:11,000 --> 00:23:14,800
Speaker 1: that big dollar is has all the support behind it,

438
00:23:15,600 --> 00:23:18,760
Speaker 1: a more advanced central banker in terms of normalization and

439
00:23:18,880 --> 00:23:22,600
Speaker 1: stronger economy, a more balanced balance of payments. You cannot

440
00:23:22,760 --> 00:23:25,160
Speaker 1: be batters. You have to be bullish on the dollar.

441
00:23:25,240 --> 00:23:28,600
Speaker 1: Short term. However, I think there's multiplesons for why the

442
00:23:28,640 --> 00:23:33,359
Speaker 1: dollar is likely to remain range bound, maybe with with

443
00:23:33,440 --> 00:23:35,600
Speaker 1: a downward trend, not least of which because the Fed

444
00:23:35,680 --> 00:23:39,240
Speaker 1: now is decisively more decisively more and more dobish. So

445
00:23:39,320 --> 00:23:43,800
Speaker 1: short term probably weaker or the range bound to weaker.

446
00:23:43,880 --> 00:23:45,800
Speaker 1: Medium terms, you have to believe that the dollar is

447
00:23:45,800 --> 00:23:48,200
Speaker 1: gonna get stronger. Ma said, thank you so much. He

448
00:23:48,400 --> 00:24:00,840
Speaker 1: is with black Rack, Managing director for Emerging Markets. There's

449
00:24:00,880 --> 00:24:04,600
Speaker 1: a few walls of worry out there. Anthony Dwyer loves

450
00:24:04,720 --> 00:24:09,120
Speaker 1: walls of worry. They allow him to be comfortable in equities.

451
00:24:09,359 --> 00:24:14,680
Speaker 1: Many others aren't. Tony dwyerchanicalginuity, Good morning, Good morning Tom.

452
00:24:14,680 --> 00:24:16,959
Speaker 1: How are you today? I think I'm good. Have you

453
00:24:17,040 --> 00:24:21,280
Speaker 1: had to adjust your call after the festivities of the

454
00:24:21,359 --> 00:24:24,880
Speaker 1: last nine or so days, No, I haven't, Actually I would.

455
00:24:25,320 --> 00:24:28,320
Speaker 1: It's actually the response to the Brexit has actually given

456
00:24:28,320 --> 00:24:33,040
Speaker 1: me more confidence in our call for next for forty

457
00:24:33,080 --> 00:24:36,080
Speaker 1: next year for the SMP five. So I'm in the

458
00:24:36,119 --> 00:24:40,520
Speaker 1: camp that we go up fifteen. Because what you knew

459
00:24:40,600 --> 00:24:42,679
Speaker 1: right after Brexit was that there was a risk of

460
00:24:42,680 --> 00:24:45,119
Speaker 1: economic dislocation in Europe. I get that you had to

461
00:24:46,119 --> 00:24:48,480
Speaker 1: downside days, and for the listeners, what that means is

462
00:24:49,320 --> 00:24:52,920
Speaker 1: the volume on the New York Stock exchanges in down stocks.

463
00:24:52,960 --> 00:24:56,080
Speaker 1: So you had two really bad days. Historically, when you

464
00:24:56,119 --> 00:24:59,159
Speaker 1: have shocked days like that, you have a good market

465
00:24:59,200 --> 00:25:01,720
Speaker 1: response either two weeks or three months later. So that's

466
00:25:01,720 --> 00:25:04,760
Speaker 1: on its own, separate that. So what happened after that

467
00:25:05,160 --> 00:25:10,280
Speaker 1: where you had to upside volume days. That is extraordinarily rare.

468
00:25:10,400 --> 00:25:13,320
Speaker 1: It's very it's it's a lot easier to tank the

469
00:25:13,400 --> 00:25:16,400
Speaker 1: market than to spike the market. So what happened is

470
00:25:16,840 --> 00:25:20,320
Speaker 1: you have to these two days of upside volume. Historically,

471
00:25:20,400 --> 00:25:24,800
Speaker 1: when that happens, the market is up every single time, three,

472
00:25:24,880 --> 00:25:28,000
Speaker 1: six and twelve months later, and over the course of

473
00:25:28,000 --> 00:25:33,119
Speaker 1: the next year it's up by over actually is a median.

474
00:25:33,280 --> 00:25:36,600
Speaker 1: So what we know is with Brexit, the Fed is

475
00:25:36,640 --> 00:25:38,560
Speaker 1: not going to raise rates now at least until the

476
00:25:38,640 --> 00:25:41,000
Speaker 1: end of the year. At best. You have the ten

477
00:25:41,080 --> 00:25:43,440
Speaker 1: year note. You're coming down to now a one two,

478
00:25:43,480 --> 00:25:47,560
Speaker 1: which is very, very stimulative to lending activity. You've got

479
00:25:47,840 --> 00:25:52,760
Speaker 1: um consumer The consumer spending number beat expectation and was

480
00:25:52,840 --> 00:25:55,720
Speaker 1: revised higher for April. So it's I think it's a

481
00:25:55,880 --> 00:25:58,600
Speaker 1: it's a pretty interesting environment. But here's the money question

482
00:25:58,800 --> 00:26:01,679
Speaker 1: in Anthony, You've got enough grizzle around you that you

483
00:26:01,680 --> 00:26:04,480
Speaker 1: can answer this. How many camp tuitions are you doing

484
00:26:04,520 --> 00:26:07,439
Speaker 1: this summer? I cannot believe you called me old on

485
00:26:07,520 --> 00:26:11,000
Speaker 1: the radio. Did you the camps are over? The kids

486
00:26:11,000 --> 00:26:20,280
Speaker 1: are working? They are they getting the fifty our minimum wage? Yeah?

487
00:26:20,320 --> 00:26:24,080
Speaker 1: They are, Thank god, great, your tax dollars at work

488
00:26:24,119 --> 00:26:27,879
Speaker 1: folks a direct conduit to the Dwyer household Tony. The

489
00:26:27,960 --> 00:26:31,480
Speaker 1: money question for everybody with their two oh one k,

490
00:26:32,119 --> 00:26:35,320
Speaker 1: the four people that went short the sterling and beat

491
00:26:35,320 --> 00:26:38,800
Speaker 1: George Sorol's at at the money question is can corporate

492
00:26:38,840 --> 00:26:44,760
Speaker 1: behavior and corporate performance d link from our greater macroeconomics?

493
00:26:45,040 --> 00:26:47,800
Speaker 1: What's your view of history on that. The only thing

494
00:26:47,840 --> 00:26:50,760
Speaker 1: that matters to corporate spending at this point in my

495
00:26:50,840 --> 00:26:53,399
Speaker 1: opinion now and what the cycle has shown is the

496
00:26:53,440 --> 00:26:56,080
Speaker 1: ability of companies to go to the market and access

497
00:26:56,119 --> 00:26:59,920
Speaker 1: debt in other words, issued debt. So um, that's why

498
00:27:00,040 --> 00:27:02,920
Speaker 1: lower rates are so stimulant when you're outside of a recession,

499
00:27:02,960 --> 00:27:05,840
Speaker 1: because companies can go to the credit markets and borrow

500
00:27:05,880 --> 00:27:09,119
Speaker 1: a ton of money for mergers and acquisitions, for buying backstock,

501
00:27:09,600 --> 00:27:13,280
Speaker 1: and importantly for capital spending. You know, just as an example,

502
00:27:13,320 --> 00:27:16,240
Speaker 1: look at Microsoft made a kind of a pretty big

503
00:27:16,240 --> 00:27:19,679
Speaker 1: acquisition in LinkedIn. They're financing it through the debt market.

504
00:27:19,720 --> 00:27:21,399
Speaker 1: You can't do that if you can't go to the

505
00:27:21,480 --> 00:27:24,840
Speaker 1: debt market. So it's that kind of mentality that helps

506
00:27:24,880 --> 00:27:27,840
Speaker 1: the equity market when you do have a drop in yields.

507
00:27:27,840 --> 00:27:30,240
Speaker 1: And then again it comes down to for companies. Are

508
00:27:30,280 --> 00:27:32,920
Speaker 1: you in a recession now? Companies are slow and they're

509
00:27:32,920 --> 00:27:35,960
Speaker 1: worried about Europe. I've not heard anybody say that while

510
00:27:36,040 --> 00:27:39,280
Speaker 1: business is seriously deteriorating in the last two months. So

511
00:27:39,640 --> 00:27:42,719
Speaker 1: I believe that we're still at least two years from

512
00:27:42,760 --> 00:27:45,880
Speaker 1: a recession, which means that you always want to buy

513
00:27:45,880 --> 00:27:48,040
Speaker 1: weaknesses just when, And I think we got that when

514
00:27:48,119 --> 00:27:50,760
Speaker 1: earlier this week. Well the win is earlier this week.

515
00:27:50,800 --> 00:27:55,200
Speaker 1: I mean seventeen nine hundred tony I'm going to suggest

516
00:27:55,200 --> 00:28:01,040
Speaker 1: a one tenure extrapolates down nineteen. Can you start framing

517
00:28:01,080 --> 00:28:05,880
Speaker 1: out one or two years of extrapolate of excellence by

518
00:28:05,920 --> 00:28:09,320
Speaker 1: corporations or is there just so much uncertainty you're like,

519
00:28:09,400 --> 00:28:11,960
Speaker 1: well stay in stocks because I got no place else

520
00:28:12,000 --> 00:28:14,480
Speaker 1: to go. I think it's a combination of the two time.

521
00:28:14,840 --> 00:28:17,359
Speaker 1: You know, let's let's again think back to the left

522
00:28:17,400 --> 00:28:20,080
Speaker 1: time that it looked like Europe was going to fall apart.

523
00:28:20,280 --> 00:28:23,000
Speaker 1: It looked like Asia was seriously slowing down in a

524
00:28:23,040 --> 00:28:26,360
Speaker 1: real estate mess and lending mess, and you had very

525
00:28:26,440 --> 00:28:29,639
Speaker 1: very slow growth in the US. The tenure note yield

526
00:28:29,720 --> 00:28:31,560
Speaker 1: was back to a one forty six and the yol

527
00:28:31,600 --> 00:28:33,639
Speaker 1: curb was even on the on the three month in

528
00:28:33,960 --> 00:28:36,000
Speaker 1: five year YOL curv, it was even flatter than it

529
00:28:36,119 --> 00:28:40,240
Speaker 1: is now. That was the beginning of a more robust

530
00:28:40,280 --> 00:28:43,920
Speaker 1: economic growth period, also associated with higher rates, and also

531
00:28:44,000 --> 00:28:47,640
Speaker 1: associated with a greater than thirty percent gain in the SNP.

532
00:28:48,320 --> 00:28:50,720
Speaker 1: So the thing that we screw up and conveying to

533
00:28:50,760 --> 00:28:52,960
Speaker 1: the public people like me come on the radio and

534
00:28:53,000 --> 00:28:55,200
Speaker 1: tell people what they do, is we don't fall back

535
00:28:55,200 --> 00:28:57,320
Speaker 1: on the data. And the data is very compelling at

536
00:28:57,360 --> 00:29:00,240
Speaker 1: this point, and it's counterintuitive. What is it how to

537
00:29:00,360 --> 00:29:03,880
Speaker 1: say about use of cash? My answer is every CFO

538
00:29:04,040 --> 00:29:06,840
Speaker 1: this weekend is going to take a call with their

539
00:29:06,840 --> 00:29:10,400
Speaker 1: principles and say we have to take advantage of this

540
00:29:10,480 --> 00:29:14,920
Speaker 1: yield structure. That's almost a corporate duty. It's absolutely it's

541
00:29:14,920 --> 00:29:18,360
Speaker 1: almost irresponsible not to just like, you know, the first

542
00:29:18,400 --> 00:29:21,760
Speaker 1: thought around the trading desk it can accordingenuity outside of

543
00:29:21,760 --> 00:29:25,880
Speaker 1: how can we help our clients, was how how should

544
00:29:25,880 --> 00:29:30,840
Speaker 1: I refinance my mortgage? So it's almost irresponsible. In a

545
00:29:30,880 --> 00:29:34,040
Speaker 1: lower rate environment, if you're word full employment, we have

546
00:29:34,280 --> 00:29:39,000
Speaker 1: low interest rates and we have increasing incomes. That's not

547
00:29:39,120 --> 00:29:43,440
Speaker 1: the recipe for disaster, that's the recipe for spending. And

548
00:29:43,480 --> 00:29:46,120
Speaker 1: I think that's really what companies and households are going

549
00:29:46,160 --> 00:29:48,760
Speaker 1: to be doing. Now, remember that there's been a negative

550
00:29:48,800 --> 00:29:51,959
Speaker 1: period for earnings outside of recession because you had an

551
00:29:52,000 --> 00:29:56,400
Speaker 1: absolute collapse of energy. That's no longer the case. So

552
00:29:56,440 --> 00:29:58,720
Speaker 1: you actually are going to have some upside. I think

553
00:29:58,760 --> 00:30:01,840
Speaker 1: you're gonna have some upside surprise and earnings. So just

554
00:30:01,880 --> 00:30:05,760
Speaker 1: to match, you've got a sideline said extraordinarily low interest

555
00:30:05,880 --> 00:30:10,120
Speaker 1: rates in an increase in earnings, again not the recipe

556
00:30:10,160 --> 00:30:13,080
Speaker 1: for a tank. We are at three point five three

557
00:30:13,200 --> 00:30:16,920
Speaker 1: on the average national average thirty year fixed rates. There

558
00:30:16,960 --> 00:30:21,360
Speaker 1: you go, which is one basis point above the all

559
00:30:21,480 --> 00:30:24,600
Speaker 1: time low. John Tucker just left the studio. He's going

560
00:30:24,680 --> 00:30:29,040
Speaker 1: to go refinance. Now I'm waiting for them to pay me.

561
00:30:29,680 --> 00:30:33,200
Speaker 1: That's pretty much coming. Uh. The question, Tony is not

562
00:30:33,240 --> 00:30:37,800
Speaker 1: so much what's possible, but what people believe about what's

563
00:30:37,800 --> 00:30:41,480
Speaker 1: going on. How worried are you about psychology at this point? Well,

564
00:30:41,480 --> 00:30:44,440
Speaker 1: the psychology is horrific, right, I Mean it's almost like

565
00:30:44,440 --> 00:30:47,120
Speaker 1: every time you turn on the TV, you get some

566
00:30:47,240 --> 00:30:51,560
Speaker 1: kind of negative, sarcastic, you know, evil kind of act

567
00:30:51,800 --> 00:30:55,560
Speaker 1: or statement, and that really weighs on how people move

568
00:30:55,640 --> 00:30:59,000
Speaker 1: their money. But Ultimately, Mike, it comes down to math.

569
00:30:59,560 --> 00:31:01,920
Speaker 1: You need and make enough money to survive. And if

570
00:31:01,920 --> 00:31:04,720
Speaker 1: you're not making enough money to survive, you gotta figure

571
00:31:04,760 --> 00:31:07,239
Speaker 1: out a better way to do it. And ultimately, if

572
00:31:07,240 --> 00:31:09,440
Speaker 1: you're a pension fund and you've got to make seven

573
00:31:09,440 --> 00:31:12,080
Speaker 1: to seven and a half percent, how are you going

574
00:31:12,120 --> 00:31:14,400
Speaker 1: to do that with a ten year with most of

575
00:31:14,440 --> 00:31:16,440
Speaker 1: the world of negative rates In the ten year note,

576
00:31:16,440 --> 00:31:19,120
Speaker 1: you'll did a one forty three. Can we go watch lower?

577
00:31:19,360 --> 00:31:22,520
Speaker 1: I think you can. You could go a little bit lower.

578
00:31:22,600 --> 00:31:25,280
Speaker 1: I hardly doubt it, but you know, so I would

579
00:31:25,320 --> 00:31:26,920
Speaker 1: have been wrong that we would have gotten this low.

580
00:31:27,080 --> 00:31:29,400
Speaker 1: So um, I think you could go a little bit lower.

581
00:31:29,440 --> 00:31:32,120
Speaker 1: But again I think that the recipe is we're going

582
00:31:32,240 --> 00:31:35,040
Speaker 1: higher and raise antiquity. God the courses next year for

583
00:31:35,560 --> 00:31:37,800
Speaker 1: Stephen Major from HSBC came on the show and said

584
00:31:37,840 --> 00:31:40,520
Speaker 1: we would get to one point five. It was he wrong,

585
00:31:41,040 --> 00:31:44,800
Speaker 1: exploring it is the day before a long holiday weekend,

586
00:31:44,880 --> 00:31:47,040
Speaker 1: so let's let's do it in a fun way. Here.

587
00:31:47,320 --> 00:31:50,680
Speaker 1: I'm gonna give you a a new app called the

588
00:31:51,360 --> 00:31:55,880
Speaker 1: fed Tinder app. Jannet Yellen. Do you swipe right? I

589
00:31:55,920 --> 00:31:58,000
Speaker 1: think Jenny Yellen is just gonna sit where she is.

590
00:31:58,040 --> 00:32:00,960
Speaker 1: She's been very clear and you know, has not lied

591
00:32:01,000 --> 00:32:04,120
Speaker 1: to date, and she basically said that Brexit brings a

592
00:32:04,240 --> 00:32:06,720
Speaker 1: risk and we're going to reevaluate after So I think

593
00:32:06,760 --> 00:32:08,760
Speaker 1: their data dependent, but I think that Dad is going

594
00:32:08,840 --> 00:32:10,600
Speaker 1: to have excuse. So I don't think. I don't think

595
00:32:10,640 --> 00:32:13,160
Speaker 1: they're going to raise rates. The markets certainly don't think

596
00:32:13,160 --> 00:32:14,880
Speaker 1: they're going to raise rates until at the very end

597
00:32:14,880 --> 00:32:17,479
Speaker 1: of this year. And again, what what this did was

598
00:32:17,520 --> 00:32:19,920
Speaker 1: that the Brexit vote gives you a free pass. It's

599
00:32:19,920 --> 00:32:23,040
Speaker 1: almost like weather. You know, where a company comes in

600
00:32:23,080 --> 00:32:25,480
Speaker 1: and says, well, the weather affected our sales, so we

601
00:32:25,520 --> 00:32:29,200
Speaker 1: had weak sales. You can have Janet yell and look

602
00:32:29,200 --> 00:32:31,360
Speaker 1: at even if they're strong data coming in. She can say,

603
00:32:31,360 --> 00:32:33,080
Speaker 1: well it's strong, but we gotta wait and see what

604
00:32:33,120 --> 00:32:35,600
Speaker 1: happens with Brexit. So it buys her time. Yeah, but

605
00:32:35,640 --> 00:32:38,360
Speaker 1: do you do you think that what the Fed has

606
00:32:38,440 --> 00:32:42,240
Speaker 1: done and where the fit is contributes to the situation,

607
00:32:42,480 --> 00:32:45,840
Speaker 1: is a problem with the situation or doesn't really matter.

608
00:32:46,640 --> 00:32:50,040
Speaker 1: I don't really think it matters until she she moves.

609
00:32:50,120 --> 00:32:53,520
Speaker 1: Now we have not gone into a lot of the bearish.

610
00:32:53,640 --> 00:32:56,080
Speaker 1: My bearish friends would say that it's different this time

611
00:32:56,080 --> 00:32:59,160
Speaker 1: we could be like Japan. The yield curves flat um,

612
00:32:59,600 --> 00:33:01,760
Speaker 1: the FED pushing on a string, all the all the

613
00:33:01,800 --> 00:33:04,200
Speaker 1: things that actually I remember after the SML crisis in

614
00:33:04,240 --> 00:33:08,400
Speaker 1: the early early in my career. But the bottom line is,

615
00:33:08,480 --> 00:33:10,360
Speaker 1: until you have an inversion of the yeld curve and

616
00:33:10,400 --> 00:33:12,840
Speaker 1: the real FED funds rate moves up, I don't think

617
00:33:12,840 --> 00:33:14,960
Speaker 1: you're going into recession. So you have these kind of

618
00:33:15,320 --> 00:33:17,920
Speaker 1: you know, very slow quarters and you have a re

619
00:33:18,160 --> 00:33:21,560
Speaker 1: ramped quarter. But ultimately, I think Jenny Yellen has done

620
00:33:21,600 --> 00:33:23,840
Speaker 1: the right thing. And just one of the things that

621
00:33:24,120 --> 00:33:26,240
Speaker 1: I hear a lot about that the listeners will talk

622
00:33:26,280 --> 00:33:29,480
Speaker 1: about a lot um in the institution meetings is what's

623
00:33:29,480 --> 00:33:33,680
Speaker 1: the impact of the presidential election. It's so chaotic, and

624
00:33:33,720 --> 00:33:36,760
Speaker 1: in my view, we already have the first female president

625
00:33:36,800 --> 00:33:39,240
Speaker 1: in her name is Jennet Yellen. She's the one that's

626
00:33:39,280 --> 00:33:42,600
Speaker 1: pulling the strings, and I think that's going to continue. Yeah. Well,

627
00:33:42,640 --> 00:33:45,720
Speaker 1: somebody said yesterday, Tom that concerns that nobody was in

628
00:33:45,800 --> 00:33:48,720
Speaker 1: charge in Great Britain. We're not true, because Mark Karney

629
00:33:48,720 --> 00:33:51,680
Speaker 1: is running the country. Tony. Let's frame out the market

630
00:33:51,720 --> 00:33:56,120
Speaker 1: call right here. You work in SMP terms. On the SMP,

631
00:33:56,240 --> 00:33:59,240
Speaker 1: you're looking for about a solid ten percent move higher

632
00:33:59,800 --> 00:34:02,080
Speaker 1: over the next six to twelve months. I'm looking to,

633
00:34:02,920 --> 00:34:07,840
Speaker 1: I mean currently my target for next year's ist um,

634
00:34:07,960 --> 00:34:11,200
Speaker 1: which is I think a little bit more than um.

635
00:34:11,800 --> 00:34:16,000
Speaker 1: And again history is saying that I'm probably conservative on that.

636
00:34:16,520 --> 00:34:19,200
Speaker 1: And again, Tom, I think I think to really frame

637
00:34:19,239 --> 00:34:21,680
Speaker 1: this for the listeners that the is the most important

638
00:34:21,719 --> 00:34:25,120
Speaker 1: thing is the movement of corporate debt. Now, where I

639
00:34:25,200 --> 00:34:27,120
Speaker 1: really screwed up at the end of last year is

640
00:34:27,160 --> 00:34:30,160
Speaker 1: the equity market recovered, you know, from that August crash

641
00:34:30,480 --> 00:34:33,600
Speaker 1: and and real spike lower. The stock market recovered all

642
00:34:33,600 --> 00:34:36,160
Speaker 1: the way, but the bond market didn't. Budget didn't improve

643
00:34:36,200 --> 00:34:38,520
Speaker 1: at all from the stress, and I you know, I

644
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Speaker 1: kicked myself for not seeing that more clearly. In this

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Speaker 1: recovery from the February low, there has been an extraordinary

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Speaker 1: historic improvement of corporate debt, and as we talked about

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Speaker 1: in the last segment, that's the driver of capital spending,

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Speaker 1: corporate repurchase programs and mergers and acquisitions, and those are

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Speaker 1: the drivers of the equity market today. Thank you so much,

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Speaker 1: Cannic Court genuity with optimism there on stocks. Thanks for

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Speaker 1: I'm on Twitter at Tom Keane, Michael McKee is at

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Speaker 1: Economy Before the Podcast. You can always catch us worldwide.

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