WEBVTT - How to triple renewables by 2030 0:00:01.240 --> 0:00:05.120 Welcome to zero. I am Akshatrati. This week one goal, 0:00:05.320 --> 0:00:20.480 two technologies, three times the renewables. It's day five of 0:00:20.600 --> 0:00:23.799 cop and it's been busy around here. Over the weekend, 0:00:23.840 --> 0:00:26.080 we heard leaders from more than one hundred and fifty 0:00:26.120 --> 0:00:29.840 countries wanting to secure a more ambitious deal on tackling 0:00:29.840 --> 0:00:35.960 climate change. My country is experiencing devastating impacts of climate change. 0:00:36.600 --> 0:00:40.720 This crisis must never be seen as a distant threat. 0:00:41.479 --> 0:00:45.440 Let's make this called the first one where the benefits 0:00:45.479 --> 0:00:51.040 of our concrete commitments exceed our excuses and the carbon 0:00:51.080 --> 0:00:54.000 footprints of the planes we arrived on. 0:00:56.560 --> 0:01:00.840 There have already been some significant successes, include the announcement 0:01:00.920 --> 0:01:03.280 of half a billion dollars is set up the Loss 0:01:03.280 --> 0:01:06.400 and Damage Fund, and of course there have been many 0:01:06.640 --> 0:01:09.560 many side deals which you can read about on Bloomberg 0:01:09.600 --> 0:01:12.240 dot com for free during these two weeks of coal. 0:01:13.319 --> 0:01:16.479 But a lot still remains to be agreed on, including 0:01:16.600 --> 0:01:20.640 the goal to triple renewables globally by twenty thirty. If 0:01:20.640 --> 0:01:23.840 it's achieved, electricity will be the first economic sector to 0:01:23.920 --> 0:01:27.560 get on track for net zero by twenty fifty. Currently, 0:01:27.600 --> 0:01:30.840 the world has about three point six terraworts of renewables 0:01:30.840 --> 0:01:34.000 installed that took us more than two decades to build. 0:01:34.480 --> 0:01:37.280 Tripling it would mean getting to eleven terrrawarts in just 0:01:37.520 --> 0:01:40.840 seven years. That is a lot of solar panels and 0:01:40.880 --> 0:01:44.120 wind turbines to deploy. And there are other challenges like 0:01:44.160 --> 0:01:47.680 building out battery storage and grids all around the world. 0:01:48.160 --> 0:01:51.240 So how exactly are we going to do it? To 0:01:51.280 --> 0:01:53.480 find out, I spoke with Jenny Chase, one of the 0:01:53.560 --> 0:01:56.080 lead authors of a new report by Bloomberg ne EF. 0:01:56.640 --> 0:01:59.080 It looks at everything that is needed to achieve the goal. 0:01:59.640 --> 0:02:02.639 Jenny is being a lead solar analyst and the author 0:02:02.720 --> 0:02:06.200 of Solar Power Finance Without the Jargon, a second edition 0:02:06.240 --> 0:02:19.239 of which will be published early next year. Jenny, welcome 0:02:19.280 --> 0:02:19.880 back to the show. 0:02:20.080 --> 0:02:21.120 Nice to be here at SHAD. 0:02:21.360 --> 0:02:26.080 We're going to talk about tripling renewable energy by twenty thirty. 0:02:26.400 --> 0:02:29.840 Let's start with the basics before we triple renewables. Where 0:02:29.880 --> 0:02:32.440 are we right now? What is our starting point? 0:02:32.639 --> 0:02:34.280 As of the end of twenty twenty two, we have 0:02:34.600 --> 0:02:38.440 about three point six terrawatts of renewable energy and this 0:02:38.480 --> 0:02:42.680 is wind, solar, big and small, hydro geothermal by a mass, 0:02:42.720 --> 0:02:45.720 and marine and tidle. Now the bit of that that 0:02:45.800 --> 0:02:49.400 anyone expects to drastically increase is a solar and wind section. 0:02:50.680 --> 0:02:53.359 And it's honestly great that we can even talk about 0:02:53.400 --> 0:02:57.920 tripling renewables or talk about eleven terrawatts of renewables, which 0:02:57.960 --> 0:03:00.840 is the other number that's being battered around, because ten 0:03:00.919 --> 0:03:04.280 years ago eleven terrawatts of renewables would have been an 0:03:04.280 --> 0:03:07.600 insane target. Nobody would have believed we can get there. 0:03:07.639 --> 0:03:09.760 And the reason why we can actually talk about this 0:03:09.800 --> 0:03:12.720 maybe being achievable is that wind and solar have got 0:03:12.760 --> 0:03:18.000 really cheap over the last decade. Solar will probably be 0:03:18.080 --> 0:03:21.680 pretty close or even exceed tripling. The challenge is wind. 0:03:22.040 --> 0:03:24.360 Our win team, who are sitting in different regions trying 0:03:24.360 --> 0:03:26.600 to come up with a sensible forecast for twenty thirty 0:03:26.680 --> 0:03:29.280 based on pipeline, based on policy, based on what's going 0:03:29.320 --> 0:03:33.480 on in their regions, are saying that no, wind is 0:03:33.480 --> 0:03:36.240 not going to triple by twenty thirty. It isn't the 0:03:36.320 --> 0:03:38.640 end for renewables if governments don't sign off on this, 0:03:38.960 --> 0:03:41.640 but it would really help to have some acceleration, particularly 0:03:41.680 --> 0:03:42.880 on the wind side, and so. 0:03:42.880 --> 0:03:46.560 The difference between where we will be with business as usual, 0:03:46.640 --> 0:03:49.960 which is nine terrorworts, and where tripling would take us 0:03:50.280 --> 0:03:54.880 eleven terror warts is two terrorwards, which is a big difference. 0:03:55.240 --> 0:03:57.400 It's a big difference. And the other problem is that 0:03:57.400 --> 0:03:59.920 that two terror watts that fall shore is mostly win 0:04:00.000 --> 0:04:03.720 and wind is better than solar on a capacity basis 0:04:03.960 --> 0:04:08.880 because wind structurally has capacity factors of somewhere between thirty 0:04:09.280 --> 0:04:13.560 and fifty five percent, whereas even in the very sunniest deserts, 0:04:13.960 --> 0:04:16.880 solar has a capacity factor of maybe thirty percent. 0:04:16.920 --> 0:04:20.000 Which is just basically a way of saying that at 0:04:20.000 --> 0:04:22.560 any given time, because in a day, the sun only 0:04:22.640 --> 0:04:25.360 shines for so much time and the wind only blows 0:04:25.360 --> 0:04:27.760 for so much time, the one hundred percent capacity is 0:04:27.800 --> 0:04:30.760 never reached. You only get a fraction of one hundred 0:04:30.800 --> 0:04:33.039 percent in actual generated electricity. 0:04:33.480 --> 0:04:39.160 Yes, fundamentally, per installed megawatt of gigawatt, wind generates two 0:04:39.279 --> 0:04:40.880 or three times as much as solar. 0:04:41.279 --> 0:04:44.200 Obviously, the entire point of all this is to try 0:04:44.240 --> 0:04:47.760 and reduce emissions. So in the scenarios we do have 0:04:48.040 --> 0:04:52.400 around tripling renewable energy, what kind of emissions reductions do 0:04:52.480 --> 0:04:54.480 we get if we achieve that goal. 0:04:54.880 --> 0:04:57.360 So the tripling renewables would have put us quite close 0:04:57.480 --> 0:05:00.880 to Benf's net zero scenario, which ended up with ten 0:05:00.920 --> 0:05:03.080 point five to ten what's by twenty thirty, and we 0:05:03.279 --> 0:05:06.800 estimate that the emissions reduction is about nine point three 0:05:06.960 --> 0:05:10.520 billion tons of carbon emissions in twenty thirty. 0:05:11.480 --> 0:05:15.760 Wow, that is stunning. I mean, given where we are 0:05:15.880 --> 0:05:19.400 right now, which is thirty eight forty billion tons of 0:05:19.520 --> 0:05:22.520 CO two on an annual basis, that's like a twenty 0:05:22.600 --> 0:05:23.640 five percent reduction. 0:05:24.160 --> 0:05:27.080 It's a start. I mean, this is by twenty thirty. 0:05:27.800 --> 0:05:32.039 That is both scarily close and a long time away 0:05:32.080 --> 0:05:34.520 to be talking about twenty five percent reduction. I wish 0:05:34.560 --> 0:05:37.520 we were looking at doing it quickly, but you simply 0:05:37.560 --> 0:05:39.600 cannot turn the juggernaut much faster than that. 0:05:40.040 --> 0:05:42.400 And so it puts us on the net zero track, 0:05:42.440 --> 0:05:45.040 which is of course, we must recognize the net zero 0:05:45.080 --> 0:05:48.200 track has all other sectors of emissions that also need 0:05:48.240 --> 0:05:52.880 to decline. We always knew, given how well solar and 0:05:53.040 --> 0:05:57.039 wind prices we're doing, that electricity sector is likely to 0:05:57.080 --> 0:06:00.359 reduce emissions the fastest, but on everything else we are 0:06:00.440 --> 0:06:04.320 quite far away. But let's go back to tripling renewable 0:06:04.400 --> 0:06:07.400 energy and just break it all down. You talked about 0:06:07.400 --> 0:06:11.040 how solar will play a big part in getting us 0:06:11.080 --> 0:06:15.280 there because solar has become cheaper, faster, and is easier 0:06:15.279 --> 0:06:18.360 to deploy, And you said we are on track and 0:06:18.400 --> 0:06:23.560 maybe even exceed tripling of solar. Now, why is that 0:06:23.760 --> 0:06:26.680 the case? Why is it that solar just makes for 0:06:27.279 --> 0:06:30.560 the easiest form of renewable deployment there is in the world. 0:06:31.279 --> 0:06:32.600 Our solar is incredible. 0:06:32.640 --> 0:06:33.120 Act chat. 0:06:34.040 --> 0:06:37.800 The thing is that photovoltaics is the first bulk electricity 0:06:37.839 --> 0:06:40.680 source we've ever had that doesn't involve turning a turbine. 0:06:41.080 --> 0:06:45.039 Do you know how special that is? We finally broke 0:06:45.080 --> 0:06:48.520 the tyranny of turning stuff around to drive a motor 0:06:49.000 --> 0:06:53.080 to generate electricity, and it's super cheap and just over 0:06:53.120 --> 0:06:56.280 the over the past few weeks, solar modules have dropped 0:06:56.279 --> 0:06:58.839 to a price we didn't expect to see for a 0:06:58.880 --> 0:07:02.120 few years. Yet they are scary cheap, which is really 0:07:02.120 --> 0:07:04.320 frightening if you're a module manufacturer trying to sell These 0:07:04.360 --> 0:07:07.799 things exceeds our expectations and how much gets built nearly 0:07:07.839 --> 0:07:11.160 every year, and it exceeds our expectations about how cheap 0:07:11.280 --> 0:07:13.880 it can get, not relidly, so otherwise we could change 0:07:13.880 --> 0:07:16.560 our expectations for better and that would make our forecasting 0:07:16.640 --> 0:07:20.280 much easier. But solar just keeps hitting it out of 0:07:20.320 --> 0:07:22.040 the park and it's not done yet. 0:07:22.280 --> 0:07:25.400 So why can't we just rely on solar, Why try 0:07:25.440 --> 0:07:28.440 and trouble ourselves to try and meet goals on wind 0:07:28.520 --> 0:07:29.240 and hydro. 0:07:29.640 --> 0:07:32.360 Well, I've been an expert on solar for eighteen years 0:07:32.400 --> 0:07:34.760 act shat and the answer to that is that solar 0:07:34.800 --> 0:07:37.360 doesn't generate at night, and it doesn't generate much in 0:07:37.400 --> 0:07:41.120 the winter. Is a highly technical answer, and I know 0:07:41.200 --> 0:07:43.720 this sounds silly, but as solar starts to be twenty 0:07:43.720 --> 0:07:46.760 percent of your electricity makes thirty percent, that does actually 0:07:46.760 --> 0:07:49.840 become a problem because the other sources that you want 0:07:49.880 --> 0:07:53.160 to add to the grid potentially needed to make money 0:07:53.160 --> 0:07:57.240 in daytime hours. So wind, for example, generates electricity in 0:07:57.280 --> 0:07:59.480 the winter and at night, but also during the daytime. 0:08:00.160 --> 0:08:02.880 Not getting any money for electricity in the daytime and 0:08:02.920 --> 0:08:06.200 in the summer, that does hit the economics of wind farms, 0:08:06.760 --> 0:08:08.680 and one of the things that governments would have to 0:08:08.720 --> 0:08:11.360 do is make sure the wind gets built anyway. 0:08:11.880 --> 0:08:15.040 So, okay, we can't rely on solar to meet our 0:08:15.120 --> 0:08:19.280 renewables goals alone. That means we need wind power, and 0:08:19.360 --> 0:08:22.520 that is where we are not on track. So what 0:08:22.600 --> 0:08:24.560 is it that we can do to try and get 0:08:25.120 --> 0:08:27.000 wind power deployment back on track? 0:08:27.480 --> 0:08:29.680 So first of all, to build wind we need to 0:08:29.760 --> 0:08:34.000 build more grid because wind farms are not distributed. They 0:08:34.040 --> 0:08:36.760 tend to be in specific locations that have to be 0:08:36.840 --> 0:08:40.480 quite big, so they need big grid connections to areas 0:08:40.520 --> 0:08:43.920 of land where you're allowed to build wind turbines. And 0:08:44.240 --> 0:08:47.120 easing permitting wields is also important, which is not to 0:08:47.120 --> 0:08:50.359 say that we should just build wind everywhere, but governments 0:08:50.400 --> 0:08:54.160 can allocate places and types of land which are suitable 0:08:54.200 --> 0:08:57.240 for wind farm development and potentially build grid to those. 0:08:57.920 --> 0:09:00.880 Those are the two really big things. And for offshore 0:09:00.880 --> 0:09:04.640 wind actually there's the additional possibility of holding auctions where 0:09:04.679 --> 0:09:08.200 the governments do site surveys on the seabed because it's 0:09:08.200 --> 0:09:11.200 pretty expensive to look into a maritime environment and assess 0:09:11.240 --> 0:09:14.080 the resource, and often you have developers doing the same 0:09:14.120 --> 0:09:16.320 report for the same bit of land, which is silly. 0:09:16.520 --> 0:09:19.320 Governments should take that over and do it once and say, hey, 0:09:19.360 --> 0:09:20.920 anyone want to build an offshore wind farm. 0:09:20.920 --> 0:09:25.240 Here. The renewable stories for all the difficulties that some 0:09:25.320 --> 0:09:28.480 parts are facing and some governments are facing is a 0:09:28.520 --> 0:09:31.640 good one, and given the level of deployment that we 0:09:31.679 --> 0:09:34.000 are going to see over this decade, it's also going 0:09:34.080 --> 0:09:36.960 to be one that will require a ton of money 0:09:37.080 --> 0:09:40.240 going into the sector. What do the numbers say when 0:09:40.280 --> 0:09:44.520 we look at tripling renewables? How much money are we 0:09:44.600 --> 0:09:45.240 talking here? 0:09:45.800 --> 0:09:48.160 So it's a lot of money, but perhaps not a 0:09:48.240 --> 0:09:52.160 totally unreasonable amount. BNF calculates that last year about five 0:09:52.240 --> 0:09:55.200 hundred and sixty four billion dollars was invested in renewables. 0:09:55.400 --> 0:09:58.679 To be on track for net zero, about one point 0:09:58.720 --> 0:10:01.400 two trillion dollars need to be invested in wind and 0:10:01.440 --> 0:10:04.960 solar every year between twenty twenty three and twenty thirty. 0:10:04.960 --> 0:10:07.000 On average, it actually ramps up a bit, it's less 0:10:07.040 --> 0:10:10.480 than the first half of the decade. In addition to that, 0:10:11.320 --> 0:10:13.439 investment in grids needs to ramp up as well, to 0:10:13.559 --> 0:10:17.079 about seven hundred and seventy seven billion in twenty thirty. 0:10:17.480 --> 0:10:20.439 So that's the grid to take electricity away from all 0:10:20.520 --> 0:10:23.640 of these sources. And also a very significant amount has 0:10:23.679 --> 0:10:26.040 to be invested in batteries. So the amount of batteries 0:10:26.080 --> 0:10:29.760 worldwide has to increase by sixteen times by twenty thirty. 0:10:30.320 --> 0:10:33.240 And of course we're talking about all this money as 0:10:33.320 --> 0:10:35.839 if it's just a cost, but we've deployed so much 0:10:35.840 --> 0:10:39.679 renewables not because it's just a cost, but it's actually beneficial, right, 0:10:39.679 --> 0:10:44.240 somebody is paying for that electricity, and building renewables is 0:10:44.240 --> 0:10:46.680 also pulling money away from fossil. 0:10:46.360 --> 0:10:49.640 Fuels absolutely, I mean, you buy renewables so you never 0:10:49.640 --> 0:10:50.680 have to buy oil again. 0:10:51.000 --> 0:10:53.559 To meet the tripling renewable energy goal, we need to 0:10:53.559 --> 0:10:58.439 deploy seven hundred and twenty gigawatts of battery storage worldwide 0:10:58.520 --> 0:11:02.600 by twenty thirty. That's like sixteen times deployed by twenty 0:11:02.679 --> 0:11:06.200 twenty two, so it's way more than the tripling that 0:11:06.280 --> 0:11:08.439 we need to do on renewable energy capacity. 0:11:08.720 --> 0:11:11.840 It's a lot of batteries, that's for sure, But on 0:11:11.840 --> 0:11:14.640 the other hand, the battery market was quite small at 0:11:14.640 --> 0:11:17.600 the end of twenty twenty two. Batteries is in a 0:11:17.679 --> 0:11:20.960 much earlier stage of deployment, so our battery team actually 0:11:21.000 --> 0:11:25.120 already says that energy storage capacity will increase fourteen point 0:11:25.200 --> 0:11:29.240 five times by twenty thirty, So getting to sixteen point 0:11:29.240 --> 0:11:31.320 one times, that's really just surrounding. 0:11:30.960 --> 0:11:36.199 Eer batteries aren't in the target for tripling renewables because 0:11:36.200 --> 0:11:40.560 obviously it's just about tripling the sources of supply for 0:11:40.679 --> 0:11:45.160 clean energy. But why does battery investment have to rise 0:11:45.240 --> 0:11:45.840 that much. 0:11:46.160 --> 0:11:48.080 Well, if we don't build batteries, we're not going to 0:11:48.080 --> 0:11:50.560 be able to use all this solar and wind that 0:11:50.600 --> 0:11:54.719 we're building, particularly all this solar. The renewables build out 0:11:54.800 --> 0:12:00.960 relies on making the way that we use and store 0:12:01.440 --> 0:12:06.920 and sometimes even catail electricity better and more flexible because 0:12:06.960 --> 0:12:09.720 solar and wind do generate only when the resource is there. 0:12:09.920 --> 0:12:13.200 That's a big difference between yesterday's power system and the 0:12:13.240 --> 0:12:18.320 future power system that actually we can make sustainable and 0:12:18.360 --> 0:12:21.640 we have to move our demand to when there is 0:12:21.760 --> 0:12:24.240 electricity available. Batteries are one way of doing it. It's 0:12:24.280 --> 0:12:27.120 not the only way, but we definitely need to build batteries. 0:12:27.400 --> 0:12:30.920 Well. Wind has problems, as we've seen, the industry is 0:12:30.960 --> 0:12:33.880 kind of struggling right now, but solar is cheap and 0:12:33.960 --> 0:12:38.320 clearly getting deployed much much faster. Could we just use 0:12:38.520 --> 0:12:41.839 batteries to maximize solar and not really worry that much 0:12:41.840 --> 0:12:42.679 about wind. 0:12:42.840 --> 0:12:45.959 In parts of the world that will work. So if 0:12:45.960 --> 0:12:49.320 you're near the equator, you do pretty regularly get sunshine 0:12:49.360 --> 0:12:53.200 every day, but even there there are weeks where there's 0:12:53.280 --> 0:12:57.040 very little sun and I think that will drain even 0:12:57.320 --> 0:13:00.080 the biggest battery. And the other thing is if if 0:13:00.080 --> 0:13:02.800 you're just looking at tripling capacity, wind does just generate 0:13:02.840 --> 0:13:05.880 more power, more electricity than solar. So it would be 0:13:05.960 --> 0:13:08.720 really good to have a diverse portfolio of clean energy 0:13:08.760 --> 0:13:10.520 sources almost wherever you are. 0:13:10.920 --> 0:13:13.520 Energy security is another issue that has come to the forefront, 0:13:13.679 --> 0:13:17.240 especially in the last few years with wars, with volatile 0:13:17.280 --> 0:13:21.840 fossil fuel prices, with reliability of supply, and a lot 0:13:21.880 --> 0:13:24.560 of conversation going into COP twenty eight is going to 0:13:24.640 --> 0:13:27.560 be about well, we need to triple renewable energy, but 0:13:27.720 --> 0:13:32.760 also make sure that we are energy secure. So what 0:13:32.800 --> 0:13:36.520 does it mean just from a renewable perspective to try 0:13:36.600 --> 0:13:39.280 and make supply more secure. 0:13:39.840 --> 0:13:43.319 I think fundamentally renewables build is always going to make 0:13:43.360 --> 0:13:48.720 supply more secure, because if you've got solar wind on 0:13:48.760 --> 0:13:53.680 your land, that doesn't go away if you have problems 0:13:53.720 --> 0:13:56.520 with other stuff coming in. However, there's also a lot 0:13:56.559 --> 0:13:59.440 of talk about supply chains, so manufacturing your own solar panels, 0:13:59.480 --> 0:14:02.280 manufacturing own wind turbines, and there is a lot of 0:14:02.280 --> 0:14:05.520 investment going into this. The US Inflation of Adaption Act 0:14:06.240 --> 0:14:10.400 makes it very attractive to manufacture solar modules in the States. 0:14:11.240 --> 0:14:13.960 India's doing something somewhat similar, bit a bit less generous, 0:14:14.679 --> 0:14:18.120 and it's possible that Europe will put some money into 0:14:18.120 --> 0:14:20.600 factories as well. And in fact we estimate that the 0:14:20.640 --> 0:14:24.720 global supply chain for wind, solar and batteries is probably 0:14:24.840 --> 0:14:27.880 invested enough, at least within near term, there are enough 0:14:27.920 --> 0:14:33.440 factories out there to supply the tripling renewables future with like. 0:14:33.440 --> 0:14:37.640 Minor tweaks, they're not that many things on which we 0:14:37.680 --> 0:14:39.800 can say, well, we are on track for net zero. 0:14:39.960 --> 0:14:43.360 It's interesting that manufacturing capacity wise, it seems like we 0:14:43.400 --> 0:14:47.720 are quite there. It's more really deploying all that capacity 0:14:47.760 --> 0:14:48.520 that's sitting. 0:14:48.720 --> 0:14:53.440 Definitely, the bottlenecks are all deployment, honestly, and it's not 0:14:53.640 --> 0:14:58.280 usually even economic barriers. It's usually things like grid and 0:14:58.400 --> 0:15:02.400 land and supply and getting long term security in place. 0:15:02.680 --> 0:15:07.000 It's things that potentially governments can debottom. 0:15:06.440 --> 0:15:17.520 That after the break we get into the og of 0:15:17.600 --> 0:15:28.360 renewable energy hydropower. Now we've spent a lot of time 0:15:28.400 --> 0:15:30.800 talking about a wind and solar for very good reason. 0:15:31.200 --> 0:15:35.320 But until recently, the source of renewable energy that made 0:15:35.720 --> 0:15:40.760 for the greatest supply of renewable power was hydro. Does 0:15:40.840 --> 0:15:44.520 hydro feature in any way in this goal to reach 0:15:44.600 --> 0:15:45.960 tripling of renewable energy? 0:15:46.160 --> 0:15:49.200 So I think the structure of the target probably doesn't 0:15:49.240 --> 0:15:52.920 benefit hydro, particularly because hydro has a high capacity vector. 0:15:54.160 --> 0:15:58.040 It's clearly advantageous for countries that can build hydro to 0:15:58.080 --> 0:16:01.840 add more hydro. My suspicion is though, that it will 0:16:01.880 --> 0:16:04.520 not be a big part of the increase. Building new 0:16:04.600 --> 0:16:08.400 hydro isn't trivial because you need a suitable place for it, 0:16:08.840 --> 0:16:12.200 and most developed countries have already pretty much developed the 0:16:12.240 --> 0:16:15.400 suitable resources that they have. A hydro is also quite 0:16:15.440 --> 0:16:18.400 susceptible to drought. The regions that are heavily dependent on 0:16:18.520 --> 0:16:22.280 hydro do sometimes have problems in drought. It's actually a 0:16:22.280 --> 0:16:25.160 good compliment of solar because of course solar generates more 0:16:25.720 --> 0:16:27.520 in those times of year, so it can help you 0:16:27.640 --> 0:16:30.560 use the hydro to just balance the solar. But yes, 0:16:30.680 --> 0:16:33.720 it's quite difficult for us to imagine that there will 0:16:33.720 --> 0:16:35.080 be a huge hydro build out. 0:16:35.440 --> 0:16:38.600 Are there other renewablelds that are meaningful in trying to 0:16:38.640 --> 0:16:41.520 meet this tripling renewables capacity. 0:16:41.880 --> 0:16:45.400 There aren't any that are quite as easy to scale 0:16:45.720 --> 0:16:48.520 a solar wind than hydro. I mean, if you have 0:16:48.600 --> 0:16:53.080 geothermal resources, then build geothermal power plants. That's really great, 0:16:53.600 --> 0:16:57.280 And it's very unlikely that this statement will actually do 0:16:57.360 --> 0:17:01.200 anything on nuclear. But nuclear is also an electricity source. 0:17:01.560 --> 0:17:04.160 There are parts of the world that can probably usefully 0:17:04.200 --> 0:17:08.800 build that. Otherwise there isn't really anything else that scales 0:17:08.800 --> 0:17:09.400 in the same way. 0:17:09.880 --> 0:17:13.080 There is, in fact, some discussion among a group of 0:17:13.119 --> 0:17:16.960 countries sort of the Coalition of the Willing, that are 0:17:17.040 --> 0:17:19.000 going to try and put out a goal for tripling 0:17:19.320 --> 0:17:23.840 nuclear capacity by twenty fifty. So that may be the 0:17:23.880 --> 0:17:26.960 best outcome that nuclear has had had a cop meeting 0:17:27.200 --> 0:17:31.240 in forever. I think let's go back to tripling renewable energy, 0:17:31.400 --> 0:17:35.600 even though the goal is tripling renewables globally. Do all 0:17:35.720 --> 0:17:38.160 countries need to approach the target in the same way? 0:17:38.600 --> 0:17:41.680 No, certainly not. Brazil, for example, already gets eighty five 0:17:41.720 --> 0:17:46.240 percent of its electricity from renewables, mostly hydro, and so 0:17:46.400 --> 0:17:48.439 it really makes no sense for Brazil to try and 0:17:48.440 --> 0:17:50.679 triple it's when it was capacity it should focus on 0:17:50.680 --> 0:17:54.280 the capnizing other parts of its economy instead. And then 0:17:54.320 --> 0:17:56.760 there are parts like the Middle East and Africa, Sub 0:17:56.760 --> 0:18:00.680 Saharan Africa, Southeast Asia and India is a really big 0:18:00.720 --> 0:18:05.879 one where increasing renewables by more than a tripling is 0:18:05.920 --> 0:18:07.520 not only required to get the role on track from 0:18:07.520 --> 0:18:10.800 net zero, but it's probably also quite beneficial potentially for 0:18:10.840 --> 0:18:13.960 bringing electricity to people who haven't had enough in the past, 0:18:14.440 --> 0:18:16.800 and to leap frog over the need to build centralized 0:18:16.800 --> 0:18:21.600 fossil fuel power plants. The market that is both expected 0:18:21.640 --> 0:18:24.280 to triple renewables by twenty thirty and where that would 0:18:24.320 --> 0:18:27.160 be really enough to be on a net zero pathway 0:18:27.280 --> 0:18:30.800 is China. China is building huge amounts of solar and 0:18:30.880 --> 0:18:36.000 wind and also batteries, and China is probably going to 0:18:36.040 --> 0:18:38.800 be on a net zero pathway. The US and Europe 0:18:39.680 --> 0:18:43.200 are not expected to triple renewables by twenty thirty. Europe 0:18:43.280 --> 0:18:47.440 is actually more ambitious than tripling renewables, which is great. Obviously, 0:18:47.480 --> 0:18:51.479 being ahead is fantastic. The US should speed up. I 0:18:51.480 --> 0:18:56.120 also suspect that, particularly for Sub Saharan Africa, tripling renewables 0:18:56.160 --> 0:18:59.840 is not a burden, but an opportunity, and richer countries 0:18:59.840 --> 0:19:02.920 can certainly help with providing climate finance and making it 0:19:03.280 --> 0:19:05.840 easier for these to deploy renewables. That should also help 0:19:05.880 --> 0:19:08.080 them on the development path. It should not be considered 0:19:08.160 --> 0:19:10.240 a thing that will help them back at this point. 0:19:10.880 --> 0:19:14.000 And when big economies do invest in renewables, we can 0:19:14.040 --> 0:19:18.640 see huge differences. So China obviously is the largest maker 0:19:19.000 --> 0:19:21.960 of all these renewable technologies, but also the largest deployer 0:19:22.280 --> 0:19:26.119 of renewables. Already, we had some reporting this year that 0:19:26.480 --> 0:19:30.520 given the level of deployment in China, its emissions are 0:19:30.600 --> 0:19:34.440 likely to peak this year, decline next year, and if 0:19:34.480 --> 0:19:39.119 it continues that kind of renewable deployment just remain in 0:19:39.160 --> 0:19:43.720 structural decrease after that. That's a goal as a country 0:19:43.720 --> 0:19:46.160 that China had set in the UN that they will 0:19:46.200 --> 0:19:49.560 peak their emissions before twenty thirty, and if these numbers 0:19:49.560 --> 0:19:52.000 are correct, it could peak it as soon as twenty 0:19:52.040 --> 0:19:55.880 twenty three. Now you raise the point that the US 0:19:56.280 --> 0:19:59.280 is not going to be tripling renewable energy according to 0:19:59.359 --> 0:20:03.320 the forecast have if the US went harder, that could 0:20:03.320 --> 0:20:04.320 make a big difference. 0:20:04.560 --> 0:20:08.320 That's true. The thing about the US is that since 0:20:08.359 --> 0:20:11.840 the Inflation of Reduction Act has been published and brought 0:20:11.840 --> 0:20:16.040 into law. It's like this car that has the accelerator 0:20:16.119 --> 0:20:18.760 pressed down really hard, but it's also got the handbrake on. 0:20:19.680 --> 0:20:22.760 The economics of renewables are fantastic, but it's a really 0:20:22.800 --> 0:20:25.840 difficult business environment. It's hard to get permits, it's hard 0:20:25.880 --> 0:20:28.080 to get grid, it's hard to build anything in America, 0:20:28.160 --> 0:20:31.960 it seems like from afar. So what the US government 0:20:31.960 --> 0:20:36.040 should focus on is removing bottlenecks. The economics are fantastic 0:20:36.600 --> 0:20:39.000 and it should go, but it does need to speed up. 0:20:39.000 --> 0:20:41.920 And our local analysts all look at the numbers and go, oh, 0:20:41.960 --> 0:20:44.080 I don't think it's going to take off like a rocket. 0:20:44.440 --> 0:20:44.600 Now. 0:20:44.600 --> 0:20:47.679 We've talked about tripling renewable energy because that's going to 0:20:47.720 --> 0:20:50.080 be one of the things that will get signed off 0:20:50.119 --> 0:20:53.440 at COP twenty eight most likely. But there are a 0:20:53.480 --> 0:20:56.000 few other things that are being talked about, and let's 0:20:56.040 --> 0:20:59.919 just touch on them briefly. One is doubling energy efficiency. 0:21:00.080 --> 0:21:04.439 It's kind of a no brainer. You can deploy solutions 0:21:04.440 --> 0:21:07.440 that would use less energy but give you the same output, 0:21:08.119 --> 0:21:12.280 and yet it's one that seems to not really be 0:21:13.080 --> 0:21:15.520 the sexy solution people want to chase. 0:21:15.960 --> 0:21:20.040 Efficiency is never sexy, and you generally don't get much 0:21:20.160 --> 0:21:23.720 credit saving energy. I really hope that passes, though, because 0:21:23.880 --> 0:21:26.320 the best sort of electricity to generate the sort that 0:21:26.320 --> 0:21:28.520 you never even have to generate because you don't use it. 0:21:29.000 --> 0:21:32.720 But it's obvious that it's not a splashy, sexy target 0:21:32.760 --> 0:21:34.359 like tripling renewables capacity. 0:21:34.680 --> 0:21:38.480 We have seen some movement, given volatility in energy prices 0:21:38.560 --> 0:21:42.639 over the past few years, where industry and governments have 0:21:42.800 --> 0:21:46.000 focused on trying to increase efficiency, but you're right, it's 0:21:46.080 --> 0:21:51.119 just sort of the underused lever. Ultimately, would just those 0:21:51.160 --> 0:21:54.160 two things do enough to get us to net zero 0:21:54.600 --> 0:21:57.480 or do we also have to have some form of 0:21:57.520 --> 0:21:59.960 agreement to reduce fossil fuel. 0:22:01.160 --> 0:22:04.720 That's a very good question. I think that to get 0:22:04.760 --> 0:22:08.800 to actual net zero we have to not just decarbonize power, 0:22:09.600 --> 0:22:12.480 which is as we've discussed, the easy bit. We've also 0:22:12.640 --> 0:22:18.119 got to decarbonize shipping and transport and agriculture and aviation 0:22:19.160 --> 0:22:22.840 and industry, and all of those are harder. Yes, we 0:22:22.920 --> 0:22:25.840 can leave the bulk of that to be on twenty thirty, 0:22:25.920 --> 0:22:28.679 at which point we'll have loads of cheap and clean electricity. 0:22:29.359 --> 0:22:32.359 But we've got to start setting the pathway now to 0:22:32.480 --> 0:22:38.560 do so. So preparations for decarbonizing industry, transport, aviation, agriculture 0:22:38.600 --> 0:22:40.520 are really important to this point. 0:22:40.720 --> 0:22:43.080 And since we talked earlier in the year about solar 0:22:43.400 --> 0:22:45.359 you have finished and a new edition of your book 0:22:45.440 --> 0:22:47.879 is coming out. What were the biggest updates? 0:22:48.240 --> 0:22:51.040 So my book is called Solar Power Finance without the Jargon, 0:22:51.480 --> 0:22:54.399 and the first edition was published in twenty nineteen, and 0:22:54.440 --> 0:22:56.520 it's meant to explain to people who may be studied 0:22:56.520 --> 0:23:00.000 stem more humanities what you need to know about finance 0:23:00.160 --> 0:23:03.600 to work in manewables. Back in twenty nineteen, I think 0:23:03.760 --> 0:23:06.600