1 00:00:00,880 --> 00:00:04,400 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch us 2 00:00:04,400 --> 00:00:07,560 Speaker 1: live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the 3 00:00:07,640 --> 00:00:10,760 Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app and the Bloomberg Business app, or listen on 4 00:00:10,800 --> 00:00:12,800 Speaker 1: demand wherever you get your podcasts. 5 00:00:14,360 --> 00:00:18,200 Speaker 2: Jack Fitzpatrick here from Bloomberg Government, sitting in for Joe 6 00:00:18,239 --> 00:00:22,800 Speaker 2: Matthew will be back next week plenty to discuss, especially 7 00:00:22,800 --> 00:00:25,000 Speaker 2: on the Middle East. I'm looking forward in a few 8 00:00:25,000 --> 00:00:28,920 Speaker 2: minutes to speaking with Hagar Shamali, who led the efforts 9 00:00:28,920 --> 00:00:32,280 Speaker 2: focused on Syria and Lebanon at the National Security Council 10 00:00:32,320 --> 00:00:36,519 Speaker 2: back during the Obama administration. We'll get some big picture 11 00:00:36,760 --> 00:00:40,040 Speaker 2: takeaways on that and some specific information from her. But 12 00:00:40,120 --> 00:00:44,120 Speaker 2: let's bring in our panel of Bloomberg Politics contributors right now, 13 00:00:44,280 --> 00:00:47,960 Speaker 2: Rick Davis and Jeanie she and Zano. I think I 14 00:00:48,000 --> 00:00:52,360 Speaker 2: have one obvious question on the politics of everything that's 15 00:00:52,360 --> 00:00:55,520 Speaker 2: happening in the Middle East, and they're basically three points 16 00:00:55,520 --> 00:00:59,440 Speaker 2: to discuss here. One the explosions in Iran that the 17 00:00:59,520 --> 00:01:02,400 Speaker 2: latest I've seen in our coverage on the Bloomberg terminal 18 00:01:02,440 --> 00:01:04,480 Speaker 2: is that at least one hundred and three people in 19 00:01:04,560 --> 00:01:09,479 Speaker 2: Iran killed. Also, separately from that, the death of the 20 00:01:09,600 --> 00:01:15,080 Speaker 2: deputy Pullit Bureau leader of Hamas sala al Aaruri in 21 00:01:15,120 --> 00:01:21,200 Speaker 2: an explosion in Lebanon, and also the rising tensions in 22 00:01:21,240 --> 00:01:25,279 Speaker 2: the Red Sea, especially following a report from the Houthi 23 00:01:25,400 --> 00:01:29,400 Speaker 2: rebels in Yemen saying that they had gone after another 24 00:01:29,480 --> 00:01:35,160 Speaker 2: ship of French origin. Part of their broad discussions brought 25 00:01:35,200 --> 00:01:38,480 Speaker 2: broad focus on going after ships that they say have 26 00:01:38,480 --> 00:01:41,280 Speaker 2: any connection to Israel. And let's go right now to 27 00:01:41,640 --> 00:01:45,399 Speaker 2: Hagar Shamali again with experience of the National Security Council 28 00:01:45,440 --> 00:01:48,520 Speaker 2: and founder of Greenwich Media Strategies. Hagar, really happy to 29 00:01:48,560 --> 00:01:52,000 Speaker 2: have someone with your breadth of knowledge here. And as 30 00:01:52,040 --> 00:01:55,960 Speaker 2: I go through a sort of triumvirate of issues to 31 00:01:56,040 --> 00:01:59,559 Speaker 2: focus on in the Middle East, my big picture question 32 00:01:59,680 --> 00:02:02,000 Speaker 2: for you is, to what extent do we look at 33 00:02:02,000 --> 00:02:07,200 Speaker 2: this as a string of individual incidents or to what 34 00:02:07,240 --> 00:02:11,120 Speaker 2: extent do we see this as a collective rising of 35 00:02:11,280 --> 00:02:17,560 Speaker 2: tensions that can itself further tensions further violence in the 36 00:02:17,560 --> 00:02:20,959 Speaker 2: Middle East. Do you see these as in any way 37 00:02:21,080 --> 00:02:23,359 Speaker 2: collectively rising tension in the region. 38 00:02:25,040 --> 00:02:25,640 Speaker 3: Sure well. So. 39 00:02:25,680 --> 00:02:27,440 Speaker 4: One of the things that I always say is that 40 00:02:27,520 --> 00:02:30,600 Speaker 4: when the storms gather in the Middle East, it rains everywhere. 41 00:02:30,639 --> 00:02:32,880 Speaker 4: And what I mean by that is that you have 42 00:02:33,160 --> 00:02:36,160 Speaker 4: numerous terrorist groups. You have a run backed terrorist groups 43 00:02:36,160 --> 00:02:40,200 Speaker 4: and militants and militias. You also have sunny terrorist groups, 44 00:02:40,480 --> 00:02:44,280 Speaker 4: and they take advantage of that instability. Whenever they see 45 00:02:44,480 --> 00:02:47,240 Speaker 4: that maybe governments are pouring their resources somewhere, that they 46 00:02:47,280 --> 00:02:50,360 Speaker 4: might be distracted by something or focused on a certain 47 00:02:50,840 --> 00:02:54,560 Speaker 4: event or source of instability, they take advantage of that 48 00:02:54,639 --> 00:02:58,680 Speaker 4: and pursue their own efforts to further that instability. And 49 00:02:58,720 --> 00:03:03,000 Speaker 4: that doesn't mean that it evolves into a larger scale 50 00:03:03,040 --> 00:03:06,080 Speaker 4: war or that it devolves things into chaos, but that 51 00:03:06,240 --> 00:03:06,760 Speaker 4: is their goal. 52 00:03:06,800 --> 00:03:08,120 Speaker 3: Their goal is to. 53 00:03:08,080 --> 00:03:12,320 Speaker 4: Take advantage of that and say, hey, because you've got 54 00:03:12,320 --> 00:03:15,480 Speaker 4: people not paying attention perhaps or or you know, it 55 00:03:16,480 --> 00:03:18,320 Speaker 4: almost feels like a free for all. And so then 56 00:03:18,320 --> 00:03:20,480 Speaker 4: they pursue attacks of this kind. And so when I 57 00:03:20,520 --> 00:03:23,000 Speaker 4: saw what happened in Iran, right away, it had the 58 00:03:23,040 --> 00:03:28,280 Speaker 4: markings of a terrorist an attack made by a terrorist group. 59 00:03:28,360 --> 00:03:30,919 Speaker 4: It has nothing to do with the relationship right now 60 00:03:31,000 --> 00:03:33,760 Speaker 4: or the state of affairs between Iran and Israel or 61 00:03:33,760 --> 00:03:36,800 Speaker 4: Iran in the United States. This is purely a terrorist attack, 62 00:03:37,040 --> 00:03:38,960 Speaker 4: a terrorist group that took advantage of the situation. 63 00:03:40,360 --> 00:03:42,680 Speaker 5: And I want to be clear on that. 64 00:03:43,160 --> 00:03:47,920 Speaker 2: The latest reporting we have has not even really vague 65 00:03:47,960 --> 00:03:51,840 Speaker 2: insinuations yet at this point of who is expected to 66 00:03:52,040 --> 00:03:56,280 Speaker 2: or suspected to be responsible. Have we gotten any updates? 67 00:03:56,320 --> 00:04:00,520 Speaker 2: Is there any intelligence on who Iran would suspec at 68 00:04:00,520 --> 00:04:05,240 Speaker 2: this point? Is it an absolute mystery and pointing fingers 69 00:04:05,280 --> 00:04:07,080 Speaker 2: is not useful on that front? 70 00:04:08,280 --> 00:04:10,480 Speaker 3: Well, no, pointing fingers is certainly not useful. 71 00:04:10,480 --> 00:04:13,240 Speaker 4: And it is interesting that Iran has not said anything 72 00:04:13,320 --> 00:04:16,200 Speaker 4: yet as to what group or who might be behind this. 73 00:04:16,960 --> 00:04:18,840 Speaker 4: What we have seen in the past is that ISIS 74 00:04:18,839 --> 00:04:22,040 Speaker 4: has pursued a number of attacks inside Iran. For example, 75 00:04:22,120 --> 00:04:25,400 Speaker 4: in twenty twenty two they attacked a schiite shrine where 76 00:04:25,440 --> 00:04:28,240 Speaker 4: fifteen people were killed. And that's in addition to other 77 00:04:28,320 --> 00:04:30,480 Speaker 4: attacks and so and al Qaida, by the way, still 78 00:04:30,480 --> 00:04:33,440 Speaker 4: operates in Iran. And the attack that I saw today 79 00:04:33,640 --> 00:04:35,880 Speaker 4: it bears a lot of the markings of attacks pursued 80 00:04:35,880 --> 00:04:37,919 Speaker 4: by ISIS. You've seen them do the same thing in 81 00:04:37,920 --> 00:04:42,000 Speaker 4: Afghanistan when they've seen groups of people civilians gather for 82 00:04:42,040 --> 00:04:44,560 Speaker 4: a certain event. Maybe it's a wedding, maybe it's some 83 00:04:44,680 --> 00:04:47,520 Speaker 4: kind of mourning or procession for a funeral or whatever 84 00:04:47,560 --> 00:04:49,599 Speaker 4: it might be. They take advantage of that because they 85 00:04:49,680 --> 00:04:52,240 Speaker 4: see that it's a group of people and they want 86 00:04:52,279 --> 00:04:55,560 Speaker 4: to maximize the casualties and death that they that they seek. 87 00:04:55,760 --> 00:04:58,080 Speaker 4: And so I can't put the finger at Isis, obviously, 88 00:04:58,120 --> 00:05:02,040 Speaker 4: but I can highlight that this is not new to Iran, 89 00:05:02,080 --> 00:05:04,600 Speaker 4: that we've seen it before with Isis in particular. 90 00:05:06,120 --> 00:05:09,400 Speaker 2: Well, one other point of confusion that I think is 91 00:05:09,480 --> 00:05:12,800 Speaker 2: an important one as we track broadly everything going on 92 00:05:12,800 --> 00:05:15,600 Speaker 2: in the Middle East, when we look toward the Red Sea. 93 00:05:16,160 --> 00:05:21,520 Speaker 2: The news recently from the Houthis Armed Forces spokesman saying 94 00:05:21,560 --> 00:05:27,239 Speaker 2: that they targeted the CMA CGM tage and the French 95 00:05:27,360 --> 00:05:30,880 Speaker 2: container shipping company responsible for that saying that vessel did 96 00:05:30,880 --> 00:05:36,480 Speaker 2: not suffer any incident. The Houthis had said previously they 97 00:05:36,520 --> 00:05:40,839 Speaker 2: would focus on ships going through there, either to Israel 98 00:05:41,040 --> 00:05:44,360 Speaker 2: or with connections to Israel, but there seems to be 99 00:05:45,160 --> 00:05:48,440 Speaker 2: some vagueness around who exactly that applies to. I'm thinking, 100 00:05:48,600 --> 00:05:52,080 Speaker 2: from the perspective of companies with ships going through the 101 00:05:52,120 --> 00:05:55,640 Speaker 2: Red Sea, what is the breadth of who should be 102 00:05:55,760 --> 00:06:01,520 Speaker 2: concerned they have the Houthis succeeded in any way targeting 103 00:06:02,040 --> 00:06:05,760 Speaker 2: ships with connections to Israel, or how widespread are the 104 00:06:05,839 --> 00:06:06,480 Speaker 2: issues there. 105 00:06:07,960 --> 00:06:10,760 Speaker 4: So this is this the situation of the Red Sea 106 00:06:11,040 --> 00:06:15,400 Speaker 4: is very volatile and is and it could it could 107 00:06:15,440 --> 00:06:18,760 Speaker 4: get worse if the naval coalition that's there now that's 108 00:06:18,839 --> 00:06:22,120 Speaker 4: led by the United States, the US group together an 109 00:06:22,120 --> 00:06:25,520 Speaker 4: international navy coalition to combat the threats that are being 110 00:06:25,560 --> 00:06:28,120 Speaker 4: posed by the Houthis and those aggressive attacks that the 111 00:06:28,160 --> 00:06:31,680 Speaker 4: Houthis are pursuing against these vessels. Already, you have seen 112 00:06:31,920 --> 00:06:35,800 Speaker 4: a few weeks ago you saw the Houthy militants succeed 113 00:06:35,920 --> 00:06:39,160 Speaker 4: in attacking certain vessels. Now, the US has been very 114 00:06:39,160 --> 00:06:42,960 Speaker 4: successful at intersecting missiles. Now you've seen this week, for example, 115 00:06:43,160 --> 00:06:47,400 Speaker 4: Houthi's approached a vessel and then they made an emergency 116 00:06:47,440 --> 00:06:49,359 Speaker 4: call signal to the United States. The US came with 117 00:06:49,400 --> 00:06:53,359 Speaker 4: helicopters and sank the three Houthy militant boats. And so 118 00:06:53,440 --> 00:06:55,880 Speaker 4: what you see is this kind of constant whack. 119 00:06:55,680 --> 00:06:56,360 Speaker 3: A mole effort. 120 00:06:57,000 --> 00:06:59,640 Speaker 4: And what the Houthis are portrayed are saying here is 121 00:06:59,640 --> 00:07:02,400 Speaker 4: that while the US here is at the US and 122 00:07:02,440 --> 00:07:06,520 Speaker 4: the international Navy coalition is succeeding at mitigating this threat 123 00:07:06,760 --> 00:07:09,920 Speaker 4: and addressing those threats when they arise, meaning when you've 124 00:07:09,960 --> 00:07:13,360 Speaker 4: got those houthy militant boats approaching vessels or when they 125 00:07:13,440 --> 00:07:16,559 Speaker 4: lobb rockets or drones or long range cruise missiles wherever 126 00:07:16,640 --> 00:07:19,560 Speaker 4: they are lobbing them, including at Israel, they've been able 127 00:07:19,600 --> 00:07:23,120 Speaker 4: to intercept those. At the same time, you see that 128 00:07:23,160 --> 00:07:26,960 Speaker 4: the Huthis are not being deterred from pursuing this type 129 00:07:27,000 --> 00:07:29,800 Speaker 4: of aggression in the Red Sea, which has, as you've noted, 130 00:07:29,920 --> 00:07:34,000 Speaker 4: real real implications for shipping and for by the way, 131 00:07:34,040 --> 00:07:35,040 Speaker 4: for global inflation. 132 00:07:35,080 --> 00:07:37,679 Speaker 3: Obviously already, just in one. 133 00:07:37,520 --> 00:07:41,680 Speaker 4: Week freight rates have increased two point five to four 134 00:07:41,760 --> 00:07:44,960 Speaker 4: times fold for what is normal quote unquote normal for 135 00:07:45,000 --> 00:07:48,160 Speaker 4: this time of year. And so this situation is volatile. 136 00:07:48,640 --> 00:07:52,720 Speaker 4: When that in the International Navy Coalition was created, Marisk 137 00:07:52,840 --> 00:07:56,080 Speaker 4: had resumed shipping in that area along with other shipping companies, 138 00:07:56,120 --> 00:07:59,680 Speaker 4: for example, and then this week, because the attacks had continued, 139 00:08:00,080 --> 00:08:03,400 Speaker 4: they halted they and other shipping companies have halted that shipment, 140 00:08:03,480 --> 00:08:05,679 Speaker 4: those shipments through the Red Sea and the Swiss Canal 141 00:08:05,840 --> 00:08:08,640 Speaker 4: once again. So this is going to remain very volatile 142 00:08:09,000 --> 00:08:12,920 Speaker 4: unless the US and other partners take a more offensive 143 00:08:12,960 --> 00:08:17,240 Speaker 4: approach against Uthi militants and remind them that that freedom 144 00:08:17,280 --> 00:08:20,200 Speaker 4: of navigation is a national security priority. 145 00:08:21,000 --> 00:08:22,960 Speaker 2: And can you spell that out a little more, a 146 00:08:22,960 --> 00:08:25,520 Speaker 2: little more for me, Shamalley, when you say a more 147 00:08:26,640 --> 00:08:32,160 Speaker 2: offensive approach or exactly what should or would you expect 148 00:08:32,240 --> 00:08:37,400 Speaker 2: to change in the US military's role in the Red Sea. 149 00:08:37,400 --> 00:08:40,360 Speaker 4: That's a great question. So what you're seeing now are 150 00:08:40,440 --> 00:08:43,040 Speaker 4: kind of tick for tack attacks. You've got the Houthy 151 00:08:43,120 --> 00:08:46,920 Speaker 4: militants either approaching a vessel with a boat or labbying 152 00:08:46,960 --> 00:08:51,640 Speaker 4: some kind of rocket, and in those instances, the US 153 00:08:51,640 --> 00:08:54,880 Speaker 4: and the International Navy coalition they respond to it. So 154 00:08:55,240 --> 00:08:59,599 Speaker 4: that coalition is not proactively pursuing any kind of offensive 155 00:08:59,640 --> 00:09:03,640 Speaker 4: air sprichs or other military engagement against the Houthi militants 156 00:09:03,640 --> 00:09:05,920 Speaker 4: who are based in Yemen and who are funded and 157 00:09:06,080 --> 00:09:07,000 Speaker 4: armed by Iran. 158 00:09:07,559 --> 00:09:10,240 Speaker 3: So it's very much a position. 159 00:09:09,920 --> 00:09:13,040 Speaker 4: That's meant to be defensive in nature and to also 160 00:09:13,160 --> 00:09:15,600 Speaker 4: just not spark something bigger, and that is a risk, 161 00:09:15,840 --> 00:09:18,040 Speaker 4: and that is something the bidenministration has made very clear. 162 00:09:18,200 --> 00:09:21,520 Speaker 4: They do not want to spark a regional wide war. 163 00:09:21,600 --> 00:09:23,880 Speaker 4: They don't want to escalate things further, and so that's 164 00:09:23,920 --> 00:09:26,760 Speaker 4: why you see when these militant groups, and it's not 165 00:09:26,840 --> 00:09:29,600 Speaker 4: just in the Red Sea. When you have militant Iran 166 00:09:29,640 --> 00:09:33,199 Speaker 4: backed militias and terrorist groups in Iraq and Syria pursuing 167 00:09:33,240 --> 00:09:36,280 Speaker 4: attacks against US bases there, you're also seeing the same 168 00:09:36,320 --> 00:09:39,640 Speaker 4: type of response. It's very tit for tat the US 169 00:09:39,720 --> 00:09:42,440 Speaker 4: is making it clear we're not pursuing aggression, you are, 170 00:09:42,520 --> 00:09:44,559 Speaker 4: and if you do, we will respond in kind. 171 00:09:44,880 --> 00:09:46,719 Speaker 3: So the responses are very proportionate. 172 00:09:47,120 --> 00:09:50,560 Speaker 4: But the Huthis are not as armed certainly as the 173 00:09:50,600 --> 00:09:52,440 Speaker 4: United States. They are nowhere near as strong as all 174 00:09:52,480 --> 00:09:55,040 Speaker 4: of those countries that make up the Navy Coalition, and 175 00:09:55,120 --> 00:09:59,000 Speaker 4: so if they wanted to pursue a more offensive position, 176 00:09:59,240 --> 00:10:02,480 Speaker 4: they could prohable actively go and pursue air strikes against 177 00:10:02,520 --> 00:10:05,520 Speaker 4: where they see major weapons depots or command centers of 178 00:10:05,520 --> 00:10:06,920 Speaker 4: the Houthis in Yemen. 179 00:10:08,280 --> 00:10:08,840 Speaker 5: And Hagar. 180 00:10:09,000 --> 00:10:13,480 Speaker 2: Bigger picture question for you for the Biden administration, which 181 00:10:13,840 --> 00:10:18,600 Speaker 2: broadly had looked to pivot to Asia, just looking at 182 00:10:18,640 --> 00:10:22,080 Speaker 2: everything that's been in the news for not only this week, 183 00:10:22,160 --> 00:10:26,320 Speaker 2: but big picture, it seems very difficult for the Biden 184 00:10:26,320 --> 00:10:30,959 Speaker 2: administration to really extricate itself from the degree of focus 185 00:10:30,960 --> 00:10:33,120 Speaker 2: on the Middle East to the extent that they wanted 186 00:10:33,160 --> 00:10:36,559 Speaker 2: to what position does all of this put the Biden 187 00:10:36,600 --> 00:10:40,920 Speaker 2: administration in regarding the big picture goals that they have 188 00:10:41,160 --> 00:10:43,720 Speaker 2: for President Biden's term. 189 00:10:44,360 --> 00:10:45,480 Speaker 3: Sure, well, you know, it's funny. 190 00:10:45,520 --> 00:10:48,400 Speaker 4: I feel like this is just the story of every 191 00:10:48,440 --> 00:10:51,839 Speaker 4: administration for the past, for the past and ten to 192 00:10:51,880 --> 00:10:55,120 Speaker 4: fifteen to twenty years when I was at the National 193 00:10:55,120 --> 00:10:57,360 Speaker 4: Security Council, I was director for Sarria and Lebanon at 194 00:10:57,360 --> 00:11:00,040 Speaker 4: the White House under President Obama, and that is and 195 00:11:00,040 --> 00:11:03,640 Speaker 4: then the whole theme of the pivot to Asia started. 196 00:11:03,720 --> 00:11:06,480 Speaker 4: It was this sentiment the Arab Spring was raging, we 197 00:11:06,480 --> 00:11:10,160 Speaker 4: were unable to affect real change, and it was a 198 00:11:10,200 --> 00:11:12,400 Speaker 4: sentiment that you know, the Middle East was really nothing 199 00:11:12,440 --> 00:11:15,040 Speaker 4: but problems between Iraq and the Arab Spring. It was 200 00:11:15,520 --> 00:11:17,920 Speaker 4: a drain on our resources. We weren't getting anywhere, We 201 00:11:17,960 --> 00:11:21,240 Speaker 4: had very few partners to work with, and on top 202 00:11:21,240 --> 00:11:22,880 Speaker 4: of it, we were losing troops. And so it kind 203 00:11:22,920 --> 00:11:26,280 Speaker 4: of felt like this massive strain and liability for the 204 00:11:26,360 --> 00:11:30,480 Speaker 4: United States and where our national security interests were waning. 205 00:11:31,000 --> 00:11:33,640 Speaker 4: And so there was this pivot, the idea of a 206 00:11:33,640 --> 00:11:36,240 Speaker 4: pivot to Asia. And every time there was this effort 207 00:11:36,280 --> 00:11:39,719 Speaker 4: to focus more heavily on Asia, something would rope the 208 00:11:39,880 --> 00:11:42,400 Speaker 4: United States back into the Middle East, whether it was 209 00:11:42,440 --> 00:11:44,480 Speaker 4: Iran or whether it was something to do with Israel 210 00:11:45,320 --> 00:11:47,800 Speaker 4: or Syria for example, isis I mean, all of these 211 00:11:48,200 --> 00:11:51,160 Speaker 4: major milestones would rope the United States back into the 212 00:11:51,160 --> 00:11:53,319 Speaker 4: Middle East, and this is a bit of an example 213 00:11:53,360 --> 00:11:57,280 Speaker 4: of that. However, I will say that while I understand 214 00:11:58,360 --> 00:12:04,480 Speaker 4: the the lack of prioritization on the Israeli Palestinian conflict, 215 00:12:05,360 --> 00:12:07,800 Speaker 4: the fact is that you know when you have something 216 00:12:07,840 --> 00:12:10,720 Speaker 4: like this happened when you had October seven, happened and happened, 217 00:12:10,720 --> 00:12:13,640 Speaker 4: and what happened afterward that was because not only did 218 00:12:13,720 --> 00:12:15,440 Speaker 4: Israel take the eye off the ball of the threat 219 00:12:15,440 --> 00:12:17,680 Speaker 4: that Hamas posed, but so did the United States. And 220 00:12:17,720 --> 00:12:21,960 Speaker 4: the US also downgraded pursuing a two state solution because 221 00:12:22,400 --> 00:12:25,240 Speaker 4: it had seemed it was so difficult and practically impossible 222 00:12:25,400 --> 00:12:27,760 Speaker 4: to achieve in the two decades prior to that. And 223 00:12:27,840 --> 00:12:29,920 Speaker 4: so that's when you have things that bubble up and 224 00:12:29,960 --> 00:12:32,600 Speaker 4: then rope the United States back. But that where I 225 00:12:32,640 --> 00:12:36,480 Speaker 4: see this becoming an issue for Asia is that if 226 00:12:36,480 --> 00:12:39,240 Speaker 4: I were president, she and I were watching the United 227 00:12:39,240 --> 00:12:42,360 Speaker 4: States send its resources to Ukraine and Israel, and to 228 00:12:42,400 --> 00:12:45,480 Speaker 4: be very focused on Ukraine and Israel. It doesn't mean 229 00:12:45,559 --> 00:12:48,840 Speaker 4: that the US is unable to focus on China or 230 00:12:48,880 --> 00:12:50,520 Speaker 4: other threats in that region. They're not going to take 231 00:12:50,520 --> 00:12:52,960 Speaker 4: their eye off that ball. They have a huge teams 232 00:12:52,960 --> 00:12:56,000 Speaker 4: and that is a very marked threat that they know about. 233 00:12:56,160 --> 00:12:59,080 Speaker 4: But at the same time, if I were president, she 234 00:12:59,520 --> 00:13:02,280 Speaker 4: and I will watching the negotiations on Capitol Hill and 235 00:13:02,280 --> 00:13:05,640 Speaker 4: how difficult it is to pass aid packages now for 236 00:13:05,800 --> 00:13:08,960 Speaker 4: Ukraine and Israel. Then if I were present, I would think, well, 237 00:13:09,160 --> 00:13:10,880 Speaker 4: now it might not be such a bad time to 238 00:13:10,920 --> 00:13:14,600 Speaker 4: pursue some kind of action or maneuver visa the Taiwan, 239 00:13:14,760 --> 00:13:18,080 Speaker 4: because the US is taken with these other issues. It's 240 00:13:18,080 --> 00:13:20,880 Speaker 4: an election year and the public is not very supportive 241 00:13:20,960 --> 00:13:24,120 Speaker 4: of sending these massive aid packages. So that's where I 242 00:13:24,120 --> 00:13:25,640 Speaker 4: could see things prey this year. 243 00:13:26,960 --> 00:13:29,079 Speaker 2: That's an important point and I should sneak in one 244 00:13:29,120 --> 00:13:33,600 Speaker 2: more quick one with you, Hagar, since we've been leaning 245 00:13:33,640 --> 00:13:37,040 Speaker 2: on your analysis on Middle Eastern issues. On Iran, you 246 00:13:37,040 --> 00:13:40,720 Speaker 2: were on balance of power yesterday and made the point 247 00:13:40,720 --> 00:13:44,520 Speaker 2: that if Iran was going to do something with more force, 248 00:13:44,960 --> 00:13:48,120 Speaker 2: that might have already happened by then. But of course, 249 00:13:48,240 --> 00:13:52,240 Speaker 2: big news this morning with the explosion, Does that change 250 00:13:52,240 --> 00:13:54,920 Speaker 2: your mind? Does that change your thinking about a response 251 00:13:55,520 --> 00:13:58,080 Speaker 2: from Iran and the forcefulness of any actions. If you 252 00:13:58,080 --> 00:14:00,000 Speaker 2: can give me the thirty second version of that one. 253 00:14:01,280 --> 00:14:03,679 Speaker 4: No, I still see when I saw today's action. To me, 254 00:14:03,800 --> 00:14:07,000 Speaker 4: it was just yet another effort on the part of 255 00:14:07,040 --> 00:14:09,880 Speaker 4: a terrorist group to take advantage of this instability. And 256 00:14:10,000 --> 00:14:12,120 Speaker 4: you're gonna see the instability grow. I don't mean to 257 00:14:12,120 --> 00:14:14,840 Speaker 4: diminish it or to diminish the threats that come from 258 00:14:14,840 --> 00:14:17,800 Speaker 4: the region. It is going to grow further until things 259 00:14:17,840 --> 00:14:20,400 Speaker 4: in Gaza calm down, and they're not going to calm 260 00:14:20,440 --> 00:14:23,560 Speaker 4: down until probably February or March. Now that's short in 261 00:14:23,600 --> 00:14:25,800 Speaker 4: the grand scheme of things, But I still don't see 262 00:14:25,840 --> 00:14:26,640 Speaker 4: a major. 263 00:14:26,360 --> 00:14:28,160 Speaker 5: War, right. 264 00:14:28,280 --> 00:14:31,640 Speaker 2: Hagar Shamali, former director for Syria and Lebanon at the 265 00:14:31,680 --> 00:14:35,920 Speaker 2: National Security Council, now the founder of Greenwich Media Strategies 266 00:14:36,120 --> 00:14:37,920 Speaker 2: Great Insights. Coming up, we're going to talk about the 267 00:14:38,000 --> 00:14:41,240 Speaker 2: US Mexico border, a key point of negotiation in Congress 268 00:14:41,280 --> 00:14:44,000 Speaker 2: with the panel. I'm Jack Fitzpatrick. This is Bloomberg. 269 00:14:47,080 --> 00:14:50,480 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound On podcast. Catch the 270 00:14:50,480 --> 00:14:54,360 Speaker 1: program live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the 271 00:14:54,440 --> 00:14:57,800 Speaker 1: tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com and the Bloomberg Business app. 272 00:14:57,920 --> 00:15:00,760 Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 273 00:15:00,800 --> 00:15:06,520 Speaker 1: flagship New York station, Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 274 00:15:07,000 --> 00:15:10,320 Speaker 2: The new Speaker, Mike Johnson, Speaker of the House for 275 00:15:10,360 --> 00:15:13,240 Speaker 2: a couple months now, is heading down to the US 276 00:15:13,320 --> 00:15:18,080 Speaker 2: Mexico border, not only making the point that the President 277 00:15:18,120 --> 00:15:21,280 Speaker 2: will have to negotiate with Republicans on border security measures 278 00:15:21,480 --> 00:15:25,600 Speaker 2: and asylum issues, but seemingly staking out a hard position 279 00:15:25,640 --> 00:15:28,320 Speaker 2: going into an election year. It seems that we will 280 00:15:28,360 --> 00:15:31,280 Speaker 2: hear a lot about the border in twenty twenty four, 281 00:15:31,880 --> 00:15:34,720 Speaker 2: about three point thirty, Speaker Mike Johnson will do a 282 00:15:34,760 --> 00:15:37,880 Speaker 2: press conference, but we already know that about sixty House 283 00:15:37,920 --> 00:15:41,640 Speaker 2: Republicans are down in South Texas by the border, drawing 284 00:15:41,680 --> 00:15:44,600 Speaker 2: attention to that as ahead of them coming back to 285 00:15:44,760 --> 00:15:47,840 Speaker 2: Washington next week in the House of Representatives. I'm Jack 286 00:15:47,880 --> 00:15:51,320 Speaker 2: Fitzpatrick from Bloomberg Government, sitting in for Joe Matthew today, 287 00:15:51,400 --> 00:15:54,880 Speaker 2: and I'm here with our Bloomberg Politics contributors Jeanie she 288 00:15:54,960 --> 00:15:58,040 Speaker 2: and Zano and Rick Davis. Really looking forward to getting 289 00:15:58,040 --> 00:16:02,080 Speaker 2: your insights on the politics at play, the policies that 290 00:16:02,200 --> 00:16:05,720 Speaker 2: could come about because this is not just politics. This 291 00:16:05,800 --> 00:16:10,760 Speaker 2: is an active legislative negotiation as Congress negotiates what they 292 00:16:10,760 --> 00:16:14,400 Speaker 2: have said would be a combined border security. 293 00:16:13,880 --> 00:16:15,800 Speaker 5: And Ukraine aid measure. 294 00:16:16,640 --> 00:16:20,560 Speaker 2: Rick, it does not seem that Republicans are changing their position, 295 00:16:20,760 --> 00:16:23,600 Speaker 2: moderating their position at all. What should we take away 296 00:16:23,720 --> 00:16:28,320 Speaker 2: from the fact that, well into these negotiations on border issues, 297 00:16:28,360 --> 00:16:30,960 Speaker 2: you have a large group of House Republicans going down 298 00:16:31,000 --> 00:16:33,560 Speaker 2: to the border putting a spotlight on the issue. To me, 299 00:16:33,600 --> 00:16:35,760 Speaker 2: it seems that a sign that is a sign that 300 00:16:35,800 --> 00:16:38,280 Speaker 2: they are not moderating. But what do you take away 301 00:16:38,320 --> 00:16:40,840 Speaker 2: from this point of emphasis from the new speaker here? 302 00:16:41,960 --> 00:16:44,960 Speaker 6: Yeah, I think the point you make about them not moderating, 303 00:16:45,000 --> 00:16:46,640 Speaker 6: I think they are kind of the tip of the 304 00:16:46,680 --> 00:16:49,960 Speaker 6: spear with Republican strategy right now, you know, and taking 305 00:16:50,000 --> 00:16:53,360 Speaker 6: sixty members, as you mentioned, down to Eagle Pass in 306 00:16:53,400 --> 00:16:56,440 Speaker 6: the Texas border, one of the most active border crossings 307 00:16:56,440 --> 00:16:59,680 Speaker 6: in the entire country, is meant to kind of shock 308 00:16:59,720 --> 00:17:02,400 Speaker 6: the same right here. We've got all these legislative agenda 309 00:17:02,440 --> 00:17:05,639 Speaker 6: items do here in Washington, and you know, here we 310 00:17:05,760 --> 00:17:08,159 Speaker 6: got a third of the Republican caucus down on the border. 311 00:17:08,920 --> 00:17:12,880 Speaker 6: That gives great high cover to Jim Langford's Republican senator 312 00:17:12,920 --> 00:17:16,199 Speaker 6: in the set, you know who has been spearheading the 313 00:17:16,680 --> 00:17:21,080 Speaker 6: talks with Chris Murphy Democrat and Christian Cinema Independent on 314 00:17:21,200 --> 00:17:24,399 Speaker 6: trying to get a package deal where border security is 315 00:17:25,280 --> 00:17:28,960 Speaker 6: added to the Ukraine and Israel funding. So those two 316 00:17:29,000 --> 00:17:31,080 Speaker 6: are working quite in tandem, and I think the more 317 00:17:31,160 --> 00:17:35,560 Speaker 6: pressure on the administration to come to the table in 318 00:17:35,600 --> 00:17:38,560 Speaker 6: a compromise position, the better off you are. So the 319 00:17:38,600 --> 00:17:42,280 Speaker 6: House is trying to push the outside envelope on policy 320 00:17:42,600 --> 00:17:44,800 Speaker 6: while it gives some room in the Senate for them 321 00:17:44,800 --> 00:17:45,520 Speaker 6: to negotiate. 322 00:17:46,880 --> 00:17:52,240 Speaker 2: Genie, there's the policy side, the legislative negotiations happening in Congress. 323 00:17:52,280 --> 00:17:54,720 Speaker 2: Even as they're out there are still a few senators 324 00:17:55,080 --> 00:17:58,800 Speaker 2: in Washington discussing this. And then there's the politics side. 325 00:17:58,920 --> 00:18:02,199 Speaker 2: It's twenty twenty four, or it is election year, an 326 00:18:02,200 --> 00:18:04,520 Speaker 2: election year not only for these House members but for 327 00:18:04,960 --> 00:18:10,000 Speaker 2: the president. To what degree do you see the hard 328 00:18:10,040 --> 00:18:14,119 Speaker 2: line Republican stance demanding something on the border as genuinely 329 00:18:14,200 --> 00:18:19,560 Speaker 2: simply a negotiation on a bill versus Is this about 330 00:18:19,600 --> 00:18:22,520 Speaker 2: twenty twenty four? Is this about election day? How do 331 00:18:22,560 --> 00:18:25,639 Speaker 2: you separate, if at all, the policy and the politics 332 00:18:25,640 --> 00:18:26,200 Speaker 2: at play here. 333 00:18:27,960 --> 00:18:30,320 Speaker 7: Yeah, it is so hard to do. I mean, we 334 00:18:30,480 --> 00:18:33,080 Speaker 7: do see a real effort on the part as Rick 335 00:18:33,160 --> 00:18:37,240 Speaker 7: mentioned of Langford of the Democrats and the Independent Christian 336 00:18:37,359 --> 00:18:41,560 Speaker 7: Cinema Chris Murphy trying to negotiate. But the reality is, 337 00:18:42,000 --> 00:18:44,159 Speaker 7: if there is a deal to be had, it is 338 00:18:44,200 --> 00:18:47,199 Speaker 7: simply not enough to get something out of the Senate. 339 00:18:47,320 --> 00:18:50,119 Speaker 7: Even if they can get sixty senators, You've got to 340 00:18:50,160 --> 00:18:53,040 Speaker 7: get it through the House. So what I really really 341 00:18:53,119 --> 00:18:56,639 Speaker 7: wish the President would do is he would call the 342 00:18:56,640 --> 00:19:01,920 Speaker 7: House Republicans bluff. He would say, absolutely, let's deal, give 343 00:19:02,000 --> 00:19:05,600 Speaker 7: them what they want. Can you imagine if he said, 344 00:19:05,840 --> 00:19:08,680 Speaker 7: we'll give it all to you, we will pass comprehensive 345 00:19:08,680 --> 00:19:12,679 Speaker 7: immigration reform. They will not buy it because their focus 346 00:19:12,840 --> 00:19:16,480 Speaker 7: is on using this for political reasons. And of course, 347 00:19:16,520 --> 00:19:19,440 Speaker 7: as we've been hearing in the last twenty four hours 348 00:19:19,480 --> 00:19:25,359 Speaker 7: of impeaching Mayorcis the head of Homeland Security, the first 349 00:19:25,400 --> 00:19:29,000 Speaker 7: time they're going to impeach a cabinet level official since 350 00:19:29,160 --> 00:19:33,240 Speaker 7: the late Civil War period. That's their focus. Marjorie Taylor 351 00:19:33,280 --> 00:19:36,040 Speaker 7: Green said she was promised, and we hear January tenth, 352 00:19:36,080 --> 00:19:38,159 Speaker 7: they hold their first hearing on that. But I do 353 00:19:38,280 --> 00:19:41,119 Speaker 7: wish the President would call their bluff and say we 354 00:19:41,240 --> 00:19:43,919 Speaker 7: should act, give them what they want and see if 355 00:19:43,960 --> 00:19:46,720 Speaker 7: they bite. I guarantee they won't, and nor will Donald 356 00:19:46,760 --> 00:19:47,600 Speaker 7: Trump let them. 357 00:19:48,640 --> 00:19:53,760 Speaker 2: A gutsy recommendation from Genie. I see the logic there, Rick, 358 00:19:54,000 --> 00:19:57,119 Speaker 2: I think this all begs the question who is actually 359 00:19:57,200 --> 00:20:00,040 Speaker 2: in charge? You mentioned James Langford taking the lead on 360 00:20:00,040 --> 00:20:03,080 Speaker 2: the Republican side in the legislative negotiations. But when it 361 00:20:03,119 --> 00:20:05,640 Speaker 2: comes to the question of if there is a realistic 362 00:20:05,760 --> 00:20:08,959 Speaker 2: chance that they can pass something in the House and Senate, 363 00:20:09,760 --> 00:20:11,760 Speaker 2: is it James Langford we should be looking to, Is 364 00:20:11,800 --> 00:20:14,240 Speaker 2: it Mike Johnson? We should be looking to who is 365 00:20:14,320 --> 00:20:18,520 Speaker 2: the key person who's the most important X factor among 366 00:20:18,640 --> 00:20:21,800 Speaker 2: Republicans in terms of if something can be enacted? 367 00:20:23,720 --> 00:20:25,360 Speaker 6: You know, look, I mean we look at this as 368 00:20:25,400 --> 00:20:29,280 Speaker 6: a legislative debate right now in Washington. But I would just, 369 00:20:30,160 --> 00:20:33,560 Speaker 6: you know, as a parenthetical, point out that somebody else 370 00:20:33,600 --> 00:20:36,120 Speaker 6: who's playing a game on this, and it's an important 371 00:20:36,119 --> 00:20:39,320 Speaker 6: game and a high risk is Governor Abbott in Texas. 372 00:20:39,359 --> 00:20:43,400 Speaker 6: He is launched, excuse me, what he calls the Operation 373 00:20:43,560 --> 00:20:46,080 Speaker 6: Loan Star, and he's putting ten billion dollars to work 374 00:20:46,119 --> 00:20:50,479 Speaker 6: on the border, basically usurping federal authority. The federal government 375 00:20:50,520 --> 00:20:55,359 Speaker 6: is responsible for immigration, and basically what Governor Abbott has 376 00:20:55,359 --> 00:20:58,359 Speaker 6: said is they've failed in their duty and I'm taking 377 00:20:58,400 --> 00:21:01,359 Speaker 6: action as a governor. This puts even more heat on 378 00:21:01,800 --> 00:21:04,160 Speaker 6: Republicans to act in the Senate because the last thing 379 00:21:04,200 --> 00:21:07,080 Speaker 6: they want is all these governors having you know, a 380 00:21:07,119 --> 00:21:10,200 Speaker 6: hodgepodge of policies on the border. They want the federal 381 00:21:10,240 --> 00:21:13,800 Speaker 6: government to act. And even Democrats are looking at this saying, 382 00:21:13,800 --> 00:21:16,600 Speaker 6: oh my god, we cannot let this issue slip. As 383 00:21:16,640 --> 00:21:19,960 Speaker 6: you pointed out early in the segment, Jack, this has 384 00:21:20,000 --> 00:21:23,480 Speaker 6: become a hot button political issue. It's always been important 385 00:21:23,520 --> 00:21:26,760 Speaker 6: to border states like Arizona and Georgia, you know, where 386 00:21:26,760 --> 00:21:30,080 Speaker 6: targeted presidential states. But the reality is more and more 387 00:21:30,119 --> 00:21:34,960 Speaker 6: Americans are saying that immigration issues are you know, they're 388 00:21:35,040 --> 00:21:39,200 Speaker 6: number two, right behind the economy, and so everybody's got 389 00:21:39,640 --> 00:21:43,359 Speaker 6: something at stake here. I would say, like what Genie suggested, 390 00:21:43,680 --> 00:21:46,760 Speaker 6: I think Biden's going to have to articulate what deal 391 00:21:46,840 --> 00:21:50,480 Speaker 6: he's willing to have Democrats accept, because otherwise, if left 392 00:21:50,600 --> 00:21:53,400 Speaker 6: just to Chris Murphy to cut a deal, he may 393 00:21:53,440 --> 00:21:55,720 Speaker 6: not get a deal. And the only thing that's bad 394 00:21:55,840 --> 00:21:58,720 Speaker 6: for Biden is if no deal gets done and then 395 00:21:59,240 --> 00:22:02,800 Speaker 6: no funding or the border, no funding for Ukraine, no 396 00:22:02,920 --> 00:22:05,880 Speaker 6: funding for Israel. That would be seen as his greatest 397 00:22:05,960 --> 00:22:08,280 Speaker 6: legislative failure since his term began. 398 00:22:09,760 --> 00:22:12,520 Speaker 2: And Rick, go a little deeper for me on the 399 00:22:12,600 --> 00:22:15,879 Speaker 2: role of Governor Abbot And can you spell out the 400 00:22:15,920 --> 00:22:20,200 Speaker 2: motivation there? Is he pushing this so much out of 401 00:22:20,720 --> 00:22:24,320 Speaker 2: a motivation to put a major national spotlight on the 402 00:22:24,359 --> 00:22:27,840 Speaker 2: issue of immigration. Is it a particular deal that he 403 00:22:27,880 --> 00:22:31,600 Speaker 2: wants to see Congress strike? Is it a political spotlight 404 00:22:31,640 --> 00:22:36,560 Speaker 2: on himself? Explain that power of Governor Abbot for me 405 00:22:36,600 --> 00:22:37,200 Speaker 2: a little bit more. 406 00:22:38,000 --> 00:22:41,000 Speaker 6: Yeah, Jack, all of the above right hit the nail 407 00:22:41,080 --> 00:22:43,439 Speaker 6: right on the head. I mean, this guy is shipping 408 00:22:43,560 --> 00:22:48,480 Speaker 6: immigrants all over the country via buses and planes. I 409 00:22:48,480 --> 00:22:51,879 Speaker 6: don't think there's a single market that hasn't been affected 410 00:22:51,920 --> 00:22:55,640 Speaker 6: by this, in Democrat run cities all across the country. 411 00:22:56,920 --> 00:22:59,480 Speaker 6: He has gotten the spotlight on the state of Texas 412 00:22:59,520 --> 00:23:02,399 Speaker 6: by putting barriers in the Rio grand. I mean like 413 00:23:02,640 --> 00:23:06,320 Speaker 6: he has done more to bring to attention the trials 414 00:23:06,320 --> 00:23:10,399 Speaker 6: and tribulations of this border problem than anybody else, A 415 00:23:10,440 --> 00:23:13,600 Speaker 6: border problem that at best of the Biden administration is 416 00:23:13,680 --> 00:23:16,160 Speaker 6: just hope would go away, and it has only gotten worse. 417 00:23:16,200 --> 00:23:21,320 Speaker 6: So if there's a face behind broken immigration policy and 418 00:23:21,359 --> 00:23:24,320 Speaker 6: the sort of political attack machine that Republicans have on this, 419 00:23:24,680 --> 00:23:26,840 Speaker 6: it's Governor Abbott. And I think he's done a really 420 00:23:26,880 --> 00:23:31,320 Speaker 6: amazing job of elevating this into the political debate. 421 00:23:32,600 --> 00:23:32,760 Speaker 3: Now. 422 00:23:32,760 --> 00:23:36,960 Speaker 2: I know it's a completely separate legislative topic or policy topic, 423 00:23:37,000 --> 00:23:40,480 Speaker 2: but legislatively the border has been tied to the fate 424 00:23:40,560 --> 00:23:42,439 Speaker 2: of Ukraine AID, so I think I'd be remiss not 425 00:23:42,520 --> 00:23:47,399 Speaker 2: to ask about where things stand there, Genie. There seems 426 00:23:47,400 --> 00:23:50,040 Speaker 2: to be an undercurrent of maybe the idea that a 427 00:23:50,080 --> 00:23:54,399 Speaker 2: lot of Republicans would be perfectly fine seeing Ukraine AID fail, 428 00:23:55,080 --> 00:23:58,080 Speaker 2: at least specifically the Biden request for Ukraine AID fail. 429 00:23:58,480 --> 00:24:00,960 Speaker 2: How should Democrats approach this issue? Should they be looking 430 00:24:01,000 --> 00:24:04,040 Speaker 2: for an alternate route to get rid of this tie 431 00:24:04,080 --> 00:24:08,840 Speaker 2: between these two issues? What are the options on Ukraine 432 00:24:09,040 --> 00:24:13,119 Speaker 2: for Democrats given the seemingly intractable nature of these border talks. 433 00:24:14,600 --> 00:24:18,080 Speaker 7: Yeah, and you know, it was such a idea to 434 00:24:18,160 --> 00:24:22,000 Speaker 7: bundle them together. Was so sort of experimental in that regard. 435 00:24:22,119 --> 00:24:24,080 Speaker 7: And if none of this gets done, it's going to 436 00:24:24,119 --> 00:24:26,840 Speaker 7: be seen obviously as a failure. You also have some 437 00:24:27,000 --> 00:24:31,439 Speaker 7: Republicans like Mitch McConnell supporting Ukraine aid, and so I 438 00:24:31,600 --> 00:24:35,080 Speaker 7: do think that they should handle these separately. At this point, 439 00:24:35,320 --> 00:24:37,760 Speaker 7: we need to get aid to Ukraine, we need to 440 00:24:37,760 --> 00:24:39,880 Speaker 7: get it to Israel, it needs to be for Taiwan. 441 00:24:40,400 --> 00:24:43,720 Speaker 7: The border has been a vexing problem in this political year. 442 00:24:43,840 --> 00:24:47,000 Speaker 7: It needs to be resolved. But I can't see getting 443 00:24:47,040 --> 00:24:51,399 Speaker 7: major comprehensive reform legislation at this point, and so I 444 00:24:51,440 --> 00:24:55,080 Speaker 7: do hope that they, you know, sort of disentangle those 445 00:24:55,080 --> 00:24:56,600 Speaker 7: I don't even know if that's a word, jack, but 446 00:24:57,080 --> 00:24:59,440 Speaker 7: get do those separately so they can get the aid 447 00:24:59,440 --> 00:25:02,280 Speaker 7: they need to Ukraine and also free up the Biden 448 00:25:02,320 --> 00:25:04,960 Speaker 7: administration so they don't have to end run around Congress 449 00:25:04,960 --> 00:25:07,920 Speaker 7: to get aid to places like Israel and Ukraine that's 450 00:25:07,960 --> 00:25:08,840 Speaker 7: desperately needed. 451 00:25:09,760 --> 00:25:13,240 Speaker 2: I'm giving you a pass on disentanglement. Jeanie Sheen's Dana 452 00:25:13,359 --> 00:25:13,879 Speaker 2: Rick Davis. 453 00:25:14,880 --> 00:25:18,400 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch us 454 00:25:18,400 --> 00:25:21,560 Speaker 1: live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the 455 00:25:21,640 --> 00:25:24,760 Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg Business App, or listening on 456 00:25:24,800 --> 00:25:26,800 Speaker 1: demand wherever you get your podcasts. 457 00:25:28,040 --> 00:25:32,960 Speaker 2: Jack Fitzpatrick from Bloomberg Government hosting today in instead of 458 00:25:33,280 --> 00:25:37,639 Speaker 2: Joe Matthew, and I'm here with Annawong, Bloomberg Economics Chief 459 00:25:37,760 --> 00:25:41,600 Speaker 2: US economist, for the initial takeaways. First, high level, what's 460 00:25:41,640 --> 00:25:43,760 Speaker 2: the biggest news from these minutes? 461 00:25:43,760 --> 00:25:46,080 Speaker 5: In your view? What's the main takeaway from December? 462 00:25:46,320 --> 00:25:52,640 Speaker 8: Several officials see rates stay at peak level for longer, 463 00:25:53,040 --> 00:25:56,240 Speaker 8: and at first glance, it seems that the takeaway is 464 00:25:56,280 --> 00:26:00,800 Speaker 8: that the minutes tone is more hawkish than how Jerome 465 00:26:00,840 --> 00:26:02,800 Speaker 8: Pale sound like back in December. 466 00:26:04,280 --> 00:26:09,560 Speaker 2: I see the headline cuts projections show cuts by. 467 00:26:09,920 --> 00:26:11,440 Speaker 5: End of twenty twenty four. 468 00:26:11,640 --> 00:26:14,480 Speaker 2: What is your view on the most likely route of 469 00:26:14,880 --> 00:26:17,880 Speaker 2: when cuts occur? Are we talking late twenty twenty four? 470 00:26:17,920 --> 00:26:20,359 Speaker 2: What have we learned about the timeline there? 471 00:26:20,680 --> 00:26:20,880 Speaker 3: Right? 472 00:26:21,160 --> 00:26:24,680 Speaker 8: You know, the FED has published in their dot plot 473 00:26:24,720 --> 00:26:28,320 Speaker 8: back in December they expect seventy five basis points of 474 00:26:28,560 --> 00:26:31,359 Speaker 8: great cuts and that could come in the second half 475 00:26:31,480 --> 00:26:36,679 Speaker 8: of twenty twenty four. If I'm guessing that several of 476 00:26:36,720 --> 00:26:41,040 Speaker 8: the officials think those seventy five basis point what happened 477 00:26:41,040 --> 00:26:44,560 Speaker 8: towards the back end of twenty twenty four, and there's 478 00:26:44,680 --> 00:26:47,560 Speaker 8: no reason why the minutes would differ from what the 479 00:26:47,600 --> 00:26:51,120 Speaker 8: dot plot had indicated, right, But the question going into 480 00:26:51,320 --> 00:26:54,960 Speaker 8: this always is should we believe in what the Fed 481 00:26:55,000 --> 00:26:59,520 Speaker 8: officials are saying? And the bond market traders did not 482 00:26:59,560 --> 00:27:02,760 Speaker 8: believe in these numbers. The botto markets believe that the 483 00:27:02,800 --> 00:27:05,400 Speaker 8: first rate cut could come in March twenty twenty four. 484 00:27:05,800 --> 00:27:09,000 Speaker 8: Right now, the probability of a rate cut in March 485 00:27:09,040 --> 00:27:11,840 Speaker 8: twenty twenty four is about seventy to eighty percent. 486 00:27:12,880 --> 00:27:14,040 Speaker 3: It used to be even. 487 00:27:13,800 --> 00:27:16,639 Speaker 8: More priced in back in December. They were already paired 488 00:27:17,040 --> 00:27:19,960 Speaker 8: back that bets already in the last couple of days. 489 00:27:20,280 --> 00:27:27,680 Speaker 8: But I think the minutes did very little to I mean, 490 00:27:27,920 --> 00:27:28,679 Speaker 8: the minute did. 491 00:27:28,640 --> 00:27:29,280 Speaker 3: Very little to. 492 00:27:31,000 --> 00:27:34,680 Speaker 8: Support what powells. That's because Powell was very dovish, right, 493 00:27:34,720 --> 00:27:39,359 Speaker 8: and the minutes seems to be more of sticking to 494 00:27:39,520 --> 00:27:42,640 Speaker 8: the dot plots numbers saying that, you know what, don't 495 00:27:42,680 --> 00:27:45,160 Speaker 8: be too optimistic about rate cuts too soon. 496 00:27:45,400 --> 00:27:48,000 Speaker 2: And a lot of this conversation is about the length 497 00:27:48,160 --> 00:27:51,480 Speaker 2: of keeping them near their peak. But just for my understanding, 498 00:27:51,480 --> 00:27:56,560 Speaker 2: what's the prevalence among voting members of any push or 499 00:27:56,600 --> 00:27:59,080 Speaker 2: any openness to further increases? 500 00:27:59,119 --> 00:28:02,159 Speaker 8: How signs definitely, I mean if you look at the 501 00:28:02,200 --> 00:28:06,280 Speaker 8: dot plot, you could see that I think there was 502 00:28:06,280 --> 00:28:10,000 Speaker 8: a sizeable group that sees seventy five basis point rate cuts, 503 00:28:10,040 --> 00:28:14,040 Speaker 8: but there were I believe for at least four or 504 00:28:14,040 --> 00:28:17,440 Speaker 8: some who seem more. In fact, there was one who 505 00:28:17,480 --> 00:28:20,480 Speaker 8: actually see one hundred and fifty basis point of rate 506 00:28:20,560 --> 00:28:23,639 Speaker 8: cuts in twenty twenty four. I think so. For my 507 00:28:23,800 --> 00:28:27,639 Speaker 8: own takeaway, I think that the FOMC minute is actually 508 00:28:27,760 --> 00:28:31,479 Speaker 8: communication tool that you can think of it as another 509 00:28:31,800 --> 00:28:35,760 Speaker 8: speech by the VEED officials, another way that they could 510 00:28:36,280 --> 00:28:39,520 Speaker 8: twist the message, but what they will actually do is 511 00:28:39,720 --> 00:28:43,120 Speaker 8: not really dependent on what this minute will say. And 512 00:28:43,440 --> 00:28:47,160 Speaker 8: in fact, New York Fed's own research shows that typically 513 00:28:47,200 --> 00:28:52,320 Speaker 8: in easing cycles, the FED internal deliberateberiations much more dubvish 514 00:28:52,520 --> 00:28:57,320 Speaker 8: than these public communications. So my view is that the 515 00:28:57,320 --> 00:28:59,880 Speaker 8: FED is still likely to cut in March twenty twenty 516 00:29:00,120 --> 00:29:04,719 Speaker 8: for the reason that the growth is faltering, and I 517 00:29:04,720 --> 00:29:08,160 Speaker 8: think the data in the next three weeks would be 518 00:29:08,280 --> 00:29:12,320 Speaker 8: quite critical, because, for example, this Friday with the jobs report, 519 00:29:12,320 --> 00:29:15,320 Speaker 8: and we do see significant weakening, then I think the 520 00:29:16,440 --> 00:29:19,320 Speaker 8: bond traders will be putting back on that trade of 521 00:29:19,480 --> 00:29:21,320 Speaker 8: March rek that's even January. 522 00:29:21,640 --> 00:29:24,640 Speaker 2: Anna Wong, thank you so much for great, very immediate 523 00:29:24,720 --> 00:29:30,120 Speaker 2: insights on those FOMC minutes from December on some fairly 524 00:29:30,160 --> 00:29:33,680 Speaker 2: hawkish language, but good insights on what to expect as 525 00:29:33,720 --> 00:29:36,560 Speaker 2: early as March. From Anna Wong. Now, let's bring in 526 00:29:36,760 --> 00:29:42,240 Speaker 2: Enrique moronas executive director from hente Unita of hente Unita, 527 00:29:42,240 --> 00:29:45,280 Speaker 2: the Human Rights Border Coalition. We spoke in the last 528 00:29:45,280 --> 00:29:48,720 Speaker 2: hour on the politics of some of these congressional negotiations 529 00:29:48,720 --> 00:29:50,960 Speaker 2: on the border, but I want to cut through some 530 00:29:51,080 --> 00:29:54,120 Speaker 2: of the political language as much as possible and learn 531 00:29:54,120 --> 00:29:56,760 Speaker 2: a bit about what's happening on the border, what the 532 00:29:56,800 --> 00:30:00,960 Speaker 2: causes are, what the policies at play are. Enrique, thank 533 00:30:01,000 --> 00:30:04,440 Speaker 2: you so much for joining us, giving your long work 534 00:30:04,480 --> 00:30:07,920 Speaker 2: on these issues and communicating with people who are seeking 535 00:30:07,960 --> 00:30:11,840 Speaker 2: to come to this country. I'm curious what you make 536 00:30:12,040 --> 00:30:16,080 Speaker 2: of what's in the news with regard to congressional negotiations. 537 00:30:16,080 --> 00:30:20,360 Speaker 2: Have you heard of any policy changes, especially when Republicans 538 00:30:20,400 --> 00:30:25,800 Speaker 2: push for third country keeping asylum seekers in third countries? 539 00:30:25,920 --> 00:30:29,000 Speaker 2: Do you see any solutions being discussed in Congress or 540 00:30:29,040 --> 00:30:31,800 Speaker 2: are they missing any of the root causes? What should 541 00:30:31,840 --> 00:30:34,040 Speaker 2: we know in Washington about the root causes of people 542 00:30:34,080 --> 00:30:36,320 Speaker 2: coming to the US seeking asylum in particular. 543 00:30:38,160 --> 00:30:40,720 Speaker 9: Yes, glad to be with you. I have been on 544 00:30:40,760 --> 00:30:43,280 Speaker 9: the border all my life, as you know, I have 545 00:30:43,360 --> 00:30:47,760 Speaker 9: been working to help the situation along. And I don't 546 00:30:47,840 --> 00:30:51,280 Speaker 9: think that the Republicans come into the border to speak 547 00:30:51,320 --> 00:30:54,560 Speaker 9: to the border patrol is the answer. How come they 548 00:30:54,600 --> 00:30:57,560 Speaker 9: never speak to the migrants themselves. They don't want to 549 00:30:57,560 --> 00:31:01,720 Speaker 9: become citizens, they want to become residence. They're looking for 550 00:31:01,760 --> 00:31:05,479 Speaker 9: a life, not necessarily a better life, but a life 551 00:31:05,600 --> 00:31:11,320 Speaker 9: to escape the violence, the environmental situation, the politics, and 552 00:31:11,440 --> 00:31:13,400 Speaker 9: much of that has to do with the United States. 553 00:31:13,920 --> 00:31:15,920 Speaker 9: The United States has four and a half percent of 554 00:31:15,920 --> 00:31:19,200 Speaker 9: the world's population, yet it consumes a third of the 555 00:31:19,240 --> 00:31:24,240 Speaker 9: world's illegal drugs, It consumes a third of the natural resources. 556 00:31:24,800 --> 00:31:29,200 Speaker 9: It provides weapons to these countries. That is not the solution. 557 00:31:29,800 --> 00:31:33,160 Speaker 9: The solution is to work with these countries, come up 558 00:31:33,200 --> 00:31:38,080 Speaker 9: with a plan that makes sense to both countries. Comprehensive 559 00:31:38,080 --> 00:31:41,440 Speaker 9: immigration reform if something that a lot of people have 560 00:31:41,520 --> 00:31:44,840 Speaker 9: battled for for a long long time, and we're not 561 00:31:44,960 --> 00:31:48,680 Speaker 9: any closer today. I think both the Republicans the Democrats 562 00:31:48,720 --> 00:31:51,360 Speaker 9: have done about bad job, and I believe that the 563 00:31:51,440 --> 00:31:56,000 Speaker 9: solution will be coming in the next administration. Hopefully it 564 00:31:56,040 --> 00:31:58,440 Speaker 9: will be Biden, but I don't think Biden or Trump 565 00:31:58,720 --> 00:32:01,520 Speaker 9: will be the candidates. I think they're both not going 566 00:32:01,600 --> 00:32:04,280 Speaker 9: to be there for twenty twenty four, Trump because of 567 00:32:04,320 --> 00:32:07,320 Speaker 9: his legal problems in biting, because of his health. So 568 00:32:07,400 --> 00:32:11,000 Speaker 9: I hope that we really do have humane immigration reform. 569 00:32:11,560 --> 00:32:13,800 Speaker 9: I'm right here on the border and that one of 570 00:32:13,840 --> 00:32:16,560 Speaker 9: those migrants has said I want to become a citizen. 571 00:32:17,080 --> 00:32:19,400 Speaker 9: They just want to get their papers so they could 572 00:32:19,440 --> 00:32:23,040 Speaker 9: come here and be saved. It's a worldwide situation. It's 573 00:32:23,080 --> 00:32:26,440 Speaker 9: not just the US and Mexico, and here on this 574 00:32:26,520 --> 00:32:30,080 Speaker 9: border US in Mexico. Never is there a bigger difference 575 00:32:30,120 --> 00:32:32,960 Speaker 9: of the two countries, the United States being the most 576 00:32:32,960 --> 00:32:36,640 Speaker 9: powerful country in the world and Mexico being a developing country. 577 00:32:37,040 --> 00:32:41,680 Speaker 9: Neither country is bad. But let's have humane immigration reform, 578 00:32:42,240 --> 00:32:48,520 Speaker 9: more asylum judges, more immigration attorneys. That is the real solution. 579 00:32:50,200 --> 00:32:53,240 Speaker 2: Enrique, what do you make of, especially the push from 580 00:32:53,640 --> 00:32:59,240 Speaker 2: Republicans for asylum seekers who have traveled through another country 581 00:32:59,240 --> 00:33:03,240 Speaker 2: where they may be eligible for asylum. They want to 582 00:33:03,320 --> 00:33:05,360 Speaker 2: stop people from coming to the US if they have 583 00:33:05,440 --> 00:33:08,600 Speaker 2: traveled through another country where they could have sought asylum. 584 00:33:08,720 --> 00:33:11,360 Speaker 2: This is I think maybe sort of tangential to the 585 00:33:11,440 --> 00:33:15,080 Speaker 2: quote unquote remain in Mexico policy. Do you see that 586 00:33:15,160 --> 00:33:18,040 Speaker 2: as effective? Is that something that you can easily apply 587 00:33:18,160 --> 00:33:20,200 Speaker 2: to people who are seeking to come here. What's the 588 00:33:20,240 --> 00:33:23,880 Speaker 2: actual effect and that is that feasible in your mind? 589 00:33:25,080 --> 00:33:27,200 Speaker 9: Well, a lot of people are actually looking for asylum 590 00:33:27,240 --> 00:33:31,320 Speaker 9: in Mexico, and Mexico has granted asylum. But I think 591 00:33:31,360 --> 00:33:34,360 Speaker 9: that the United States should be more forgiving of these 592 00:33:34,400 --> 00:33:38,680 Speaker 9: people and have let them have an asylum hearing. It's 593 00:33:38,680 --> 00:33:42,120 Speaker 9: a terrible situation for them. Mexico has done a really 594 00:33:42,160 --> 00:33:45,640 Speaker 9: bad job. I think Amlo the president is not doing 595 00:33:45,680 --> 00:33:48,320 Speaker 9: a very effective job. I don't think majorcas is doing 596 00:33:48,320 --> 00:33:50,880 Speaker 9: an effective job either. But we got to stay away 597 00:33:50,880 --> 00:33:55,960 Speaker 9: from Trump. He was very dangerous, separating families, shooting people 598 00:33:56,000 --> 00:33:58,920 Speaker 9: through the border wall and so forth. But let's think 599 00:33:58,960 --> 00:34:01,680 Speaker 9: of twenty twenty four and beyond. I think that we 600 00:34:01,680 --> 00:34:05,800 Speaker 9: should have a more humane immigration reform. This is a 601 00:34:05,880 --> 00:34:10,520 Speaker 9: worldwide situation. It's not just here on the on the 602 00:34:10,520 --> 00:34:13,760 Speaker 9: Western hemisphere. It's also happening in Europe and other parts 603 00:34:13,800 --> 00:34:16,759 Speaker 9: of the world where there's more migration than ever, more 604 00:34:16,800 --> 00:34:20,920 Speaker 9: migration than ever, because of the environment, the violence, the hunger, 605 00:34:20,960 --> 00:34:25,280 Speaker 9: and so forth, Let's let's provide human immigration for these people. 606 00:34:25,680 --> 00:34:29,239 Speaker 9: We have plenty of space. Yes, it's a challenge, but 607 00:34:29,280 --> 00:34:32,120 Speaker 9: it's more. But we can't be using these political ploys 608 00:34:32,520 --> 00:34:36,160 Speaker 9: like Abbott and the Scantis are with using the migrants 609 00:34:36,200 --> 00:34:39,680 Speaker 9: as political ploys and busting them or flying them to 610 00:34:39,800 --> 00:34:42,399 Speaker 9: other states. That is not the way to do it. 611 00:34:42,760 --> 00:34:46,600 Speaker 9: We should have a solution. We have had many attempts 612 00:34:46,600 --> 00:34:49,239 Speaker 9: at this for many decades, and I know that we 613 00:34:49,280 --> 00:34:52,319 Speaker 9: can do it. It's it's a it's good. It's gonna 614 00:34:52,360 --> 00:34:55,399 Speaker 9: be a my national situation that we have to uh, 615 00:34:55,920 --> 00:34:58,680 Speaker 9: you know, work on, and I know the United States 616 00:34:58,680 --> 00:35:01,319 Speaker 9: and the other countries can do it. 617 00:35:01,640 --> 00:35:05,400 Speaker 2: Enrique, could you tell us a little more about, especially 618 00:35:05,480 --> 00:35:07,799 Speaker 2: what has happened in the past few years, what are 619 00:35:07,800 --> 00:35:11,719 Speaker 2: the underlying causes in South and Central America driving the 620 00:35:11,800 --> 00:35:14,640 Speaker 2: recent border surge are what are those root causes? 621 00:35:16,120 --> 00:35:19,200 Speaker 9: Well, those causes not only there but also in African Asia. 622 00:35:19,760 --> 00:35:23,080 Speaker 9: Is the environment, the fact that there's environmental challenges. The 623 00:35:23,160 --> 00:35:30,560 Speaker 9: United States is more responsible for for environmental damage than 624 00:35:30,680 --> 00:35:33,000 Speaker 9: any other country in the world when you talk about 625 00:35:33,000 --> 00:35:37,759 Speaker 9: it per capita. It's also the situation with lack of resources, 626 00:35:38,200 --> 00:35:41,600 Speaker 9: lack of resources to provide jobs for them. It's also 627 00:35:41,640 --> 00:35:45,600 Speaker 9: the situation of violence in their countries. These are all 628 00:35:45,640 --> 00:35:48,319 Speaker 9: situations that are happening in all over the world, and 629 00:35:48,360 --> 00:35:51,399 Speaker 9: the United States and the country where they're coming from 630 00:35:51,840 --> 00:35:54,400 Speaker 9: have to do a better job, and they can do 631 00:35:54,480 --> 00:35:57,920 Speaker 9: a better job. Remember years ago we had this issue 632 00:35:57,920 --> 00:36:00,799 Speaker 9: with Columbia and Colombia was able to straighten it out. 633 00:36:00,880 --> 00:36:03,680 Speaker 9: We also had the situation in other countries and we 634 00:36:03,680 --> 00:36:06,200 Speaker 9: were able to straight straighten it out. We should not 635 00:36:06,320 --> 00:36:11,360 Speaker 9: be pitying this. That also with giving aid to Ukraine 636 00:36:11,880 --> 00:36:14,320 Speaker 9: or the Middle East, they should be separate issues. This 637 00:36:14,400 --> 00:36:16,960 Speaker 9: should be separate issues. The United States is a much 638 00:36:17,040 --> 00:36:19,920 Speaker 9: greater country than that. Most of the people in this 639 00:36:20,040 --> 00:36:24,479 Speaker 9: country were once immigrants. Before we were us, we were them, 640 00:36:24,880 --> 00:36:27,799 Speaker 9: and we were able to settle this issue. Now is 641 00:36:27,840 --> 00:36:31,680 Speaker 9: no different, uh, And it's a situation in which the 642 00:36:31,680 --> 00:36:34,400 Speaker 9: whole world seems to be closing in on them and 643 00:36:34,440 --> 00:36:37,600 Speaker 9: nobody wants to help them. We believe that we should 644 00:36:37,640 --> 00:36:42,000 Speaker 9: have human immigration reform. Love has no borders, and of 645 00:36:42,080 --> 00:36:45,480 Speaker 9: course we want security, but most of the migrants are 646 00:36:45,520 --> 00:36:49,000 Speaker 9: not a problem as far as security is concerned domestic 647 00:36:49,200 --> 00:36:52,239 Speaker 9: terrorists are more of a problem, and we look at 648 00:36:52,360 --> 00:36:54,799 Speaker 9: we need to look at the realities of this situation, 649 00:36:55,440 --> 00:36:56,760 Speaker 9: not the myths. 650 00:36:57,760 --> 00:37:01,680 Speaker 2: And given your first hand noledge of the situation, I 651 00:37:01,719 --> 00:37:04,200 Speaker 2: know this is discussed a lot in a political lens, 652 00:37:04,239 --> 00:37:07,239 Speaker 2: but in the reality of it, can you, Enrique, tell 653 00:37:07,280 --> 00:37:10,080 Speaker 2: us a little bit more about this state of people 654 00:37:10,160 --> 00:37:12,600 Speaker 2: who make it to the US when they seek asylum, 655 00:37:12,680 --> 00:37:16,280 Speaker 2: when they either across the border or present themselves at 656 00:37:16,320 --> 00:37:20,600 Speaker 2: a crossing point. In terms of their safety, they a 657 00:37:20,640 --> 00:37:22,920 Speaker 2: lot of them have made it through a dangerous area 658 00:37:23,719 --> 00:37:26,279 Speaker 2: or paying somebody to bring them here. Tell us a 659 00:37:26,320 --> 00:37:30,280 Speaker 2: little bit about the state of safety and well being 660 00:37:30,400 --> 00:37:34,480 Speaker 2: or sometimes lack thereof of people when they arrive finally 661 00:37:34,560 --> 00:37:35,240 Speaker 2: at the US. 662 00:37:36,760 --> 00:37:39,360 Speaker 9: Well, we have a situation right here in San Diego, 663 00:37:39,719 --> 00:37:43,279 Speaker 9: only an hour from US is Hakkumba, and Hakkumba is 664 00:37:43,280 --> 00:37:45,840 Speaker 9: where a lot of the migrants have crossed. That's in 665 00:37:45,880 --> 00:37:48,920 Speaker 9: the US, and they cross over there and they're left 666 00:37:48,960 --> 00:37:52,000 Speaker 9: out in the open. It's freezing at night, it gets 667 00:37:52,120 --> 00:37:54,799 Speaker 9: very hot at in the day. We need to have 668 00:37:55,280 --> 00:37:59,640 Speaker 9: a situation where the people can can have shelter. They 669 00:37:59,640 --> 00:38:02,440 Speaker 9: should be treated in a humane manner. They don't know 670 00:38:02,480 --> 00:38:07,600 Speaker 9: what's going on. They speak different languages Dyinese, Spanish, et cetera, 671 00:38:08,080 --> 00:38:10,920 Speaker 9: and the culture is very different. For example, if the 672 00:38:10,960 --> 00:38:15,040 Speaker 9: person is from southern Mexico, when the border patrol tells them, 673 00:38:15,560 --> 00:38:17,120 Speaker 9: you know, look at me when I'm talking to you, 674 00:38:17,560 --> 00:38:20,960 Speaker 9: that's a sign of disrespect in their culture. So there's 675 00:38:21,000 --> 00:38:23,839 Speaker 9: always this game going on where people don't know how 676 00:38:23,880 --> 00:38:26,759 Speaker 9: to how to respond. We need to be more sensitive 677 00:38:26,800 --> 00:38:30,000 Speaker 9: to these people. The overwhelming majority of them are just 678 00:38:30,040 --> 00:38:32,880 Speaker 9: looking for a life. I was at a synagogue recently 679 00:38:33,320 --> 00:38:35,520 Speaker 9: and somebody said, I saw you on TV the other day. 680 00:38:35,760 --> 00:38:38,880 Speaker 9: I don't know why these children are coming unaccompanied, And 681 00:38:38,920 --> 00:38:41,400 Speaker 9: I said, you know the story of Moses better than 682 00:38:41,400 --> 00:38:44,200 Speaker 9: I do. And when Moses' mom put him in the 683 00:38:44,280 --> 00:38:46,560 Speaker 9: river to go to you know, to cross the river, 684 00:38:47,040 --> 00:38:49,240 Speaker 9: she didn't know people he was going to live or die, 685 00:38:49,440 --> 00:38:51,880 Speaker 9: but she knew that if her baby stayed in Egypt, 686 00:38:52,080 --> 00:38:55,839 Speaker 9: he was going to die. It's the same situation. It's 687 00:38:55,880 --> 00:38:59,480 Speaker 9: an act of love, so we should be responding in 688 00:38:59,560 --> 00:39:04,160 Speaker 9: the same We're a we are a country that has 689 00:39:04,239 --> 00:39:08,400 Speaker 9: had the history of welcoming migrants. Sometimes we haven't always 690 00:39:08,680 --> 00:39:11,760 Speaker 9: welcomed them. Look at the Canadian border. There's no wall 691 00:39:12,000 --> 00:39:15,080 Speaker 9: with Canada. It's twice as big as the length of 692 00:39:15,120 --> 00:39:17,560 Speaker 9: the Mexican border. We know a lot of people have 693 00:39:17,600 --> 00:39:21,080 Speaker 9: been going through there. This is really raised based. It's 694 00:39:21,280 --> 00:39:24,160 Speaker 9: unfair and we all need to do a better job. 695 00:39:25,560 --> 00:39:29,279 Speaker 2: Enrique moronas executive director of pente Anita, the Human Rights 696 00:39:29,320 --> 00:39:30,200 Speaker 2: Support Coalition. 697 00:39:30,239 --> 00:39:32,040 Speaker 5: Thanks so much for joining us. 698 00:39:32,880 --> 00:39:35,160 Speaker 6: Thanks for listening to the sound On podcast. Make sure 699 00:39:35,200 --> 00:39:38,040 Speaker 6: to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, and 700 00:39:38,120 --> 00:39:40,680 Speaker 6: anywhere else you get your podcasts, and you can find 701 00:39:40,760 --> 00:39:43,800 Speaker 6: us live every weekday from Washington, DC at one pm 702 00:39:43,880 --> 00:39:44,240 Speaker 6: Eastern 703 00:39:44,280 --> 00:39:48,040 Speaker 1: Time at Bloomberg dot com.