Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane. Daily
Speaker 1: we bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment,
Speaker 1: and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud,
Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com, and of course on the Bloomberg John
Speaker 1: and his FED Day, And of course we'll talk to
Speaker 1: our Steam guest here about FED Day. This weekend I
Speaker 1: will put out, folks my book of the summer. One
Speaker 1: of them I'm gonna surprise with on LinkedIn here this weekend.
Speaker 1: It's a wonderful, wonderful book on international relations. And the
Speaker 1: other one is The Third Pillar. It was a book
Speaker 1: last year that was extraordinary on community and is absolutely
Speaker 1: the book of the moment right now with what this
Speaker 1: nation is going through. Rob and Roger joins us from
Speaker 1: Boost School Chicago. He's the author of The Third Pillar,
Speaker 1: and yes, the former central bankhead for his India. We'll
Speaker 1: get to that here in a wide ranging discussion Rago,
Speaker 1: we have to talk about federals or policy today. I
Speaker 1: understand you have a little bit of reticence about that,
Speaker 1: but the identifiable fault line of our central bank policy
Speaker 1: is somewhere out there, somehow the debt has to diminish.
Speaker 1: How will they do that? Well, they can't really do
Speaker 1: anything about it for now. What they have to do,
Speaker 1: and what they've been doing very effectively, is support all markets.
Speaker 1: The problem is when you support all markets, you are
Speaker 1: not letting the markets do their work. And the question
Speaker 1: is when do you allow that to happen. So take,
Speaker 1: for example, the highly indebted companies like Earths, which are
Speaker 1: experiencing a revival without any debt restructuring as we go on,
Speaker 1: the question is when do we allow them to restructure
Speaker 1: their debt so they can emerge elder from this crisis.
Speaker 1: And that's the question the FED will have to grapple with.
Speaker 1: With all the market supports, when does it allow the
Speaker 1: market to start operating on its own rago does the
Speaker 1: FED risk its independence? We had a conversation earlier today
Speaker 1: about how the FED came out of the nineteen forties
Speaker 1: in World War Two and basically had to nationalize the
Speaker 1: debt economy to allow the nation to recover. Is the
Speaker 1: great unseen out there is we have a FED that
Speaker 1: loses its independence at some point? Well, I hope not,
Speaker 1: but the forces that pushed for FED independence are no
Speaker 1: longer operating right. Remember, the big issue in the eighties
Speaker 1: was very high inflation, which is what Paul Wolker tackled
Speaker 1: by bringing by raising interest rate sky high. The reason
Speaker 1: for FED independence then was that inflation was the problem,
Speaker 1: and making the FED independent of the government would allow
Speaker 1: it to operate and bring it down. Today, we no
Speaker 1: longer have an inflation problem. If anything, it's a disinflation
Speaker 1: problem in the short term. And therefore, when the need
Speaker 1: for the FED is really to support the economy, for
Speaker 1: the FED to cooperate with the Treasury and it's doing
Speaker 1: very well, the rationals for FED independence become a little
Speaker 1: less cure my senses. It will re establish itself again
Speaker 1: over the medium term, but in the short run that
Speaker 1: rationality is no longer on the people. Well, this is
Speaker 1: the issue, isn't it, Professor, The perception of independence and
Speaker 1: central bank independence. If these two both the treasury or
Speaker 1: the fiscal policy side of things, it's going to work
Speaker 1: closer with monetary policy in the year and years to
Speaker 1: come as they actively support issuance from governments. How do
Speaker 1: they maintain the perception of independence in an environment where
Speaker 1: both sides are working together to make sure that we
Speaker 1: can have the kind of Treasury issuance that we've had
Speaker 1: over the last few months. Well, this is a really
Speaker 1: big question. It has to work through institutional independent and
Speaker 1: so for example, protecting the position of the PET chairman UH,
Speaker 1: for government to stay away from criticizing the FED for
Speaker 1: whatever it does and pushing for more overt activity. It
Speaker 1: has to be a discussion which is on equal terms
Speaker 1: between the Treasury and the FED. It cannot be one
Speaker 1: side pushing the other. That will all too perceptions of
Speaker 1: bet independence. I think the FED is doing a fantastic
Speaker 1: job in cooperating. It's done everything is possibly could. But
Speaker 1: there has to be a reciprocal arrangement from the government
Speaker 1: side to respect the independence and not make over statements
Speaker 1: about what it should do. Professor right, I want to
Speaker 1: cause any dramatic headlines for you, but if we can
Speaker 1: lean on your experience of the r PI and just
Speaker 1: reflect them, what's happening and developed central banks right now?
Speaker 1: To some degree, do you think they are taking on
Speaker 1: emerging market characteristics? How these central banks are operating together
Speaker 1: with fiscal authorities for sure. I mean this was always
Speaker 1: an emerging the problem. The central bank was under the
Speaker 1: thumb of the fiscal authorities and essentially had to monetize
Speaker 1: the debt. In many industrial countries, we are in a
Speaker 1: similar situation with enormous amounts of debt having to be
Speaker 1: put out into the markets and the central banks taking
Speaker 1: it on on their balance sheet. If you look at
Speaker 1: the Fed's balance she takes it's expanded from four trillion
Speaker 1: to seven trillion in space a few a few weeks.
Speaker 1: This looks a lot like monetization, and it's very helpful
Speaker 1: in the enabling the government to issue, but it has
Speaker 1: to be seen as temporary and not a permanent facet
Speaker 1: of the landscape. That's what they have to work very
Speaker 1: hard on doing on ensuring there is separation. The Fed
Speaker 1: is willingly doing it in honor in order to meet
Speaker 1: its mandate, not something that's being forced on it by
Speaker 1: the trade professor. A lot of people don't really see
Speaker 1: a path for the Federal Reserve to shrink its balance
Speaker 1: sheet at this point, and doesn't seem like there's any
Speaker 1: fiscal hawks left in Washington, d C. Is they try
Speaker 1: to support this government. What's the potential consequence, I mean
Speaker 1: building what you were talking about, its developing markets. Their
Speaker 1: currency is the escape hatch. There right, it deflates it
Speaker 1: it depreciates versus other currencies when this fiscal balance gets
Speaker 1: super out of whack. We're not seeing that though right now,
Speaker 1: at the weakening of the dollar being attributed to risk
Speaker 1: on rather than a lack of credibility. At what point
Speaker 1: is the currency back in play here? Well, Typically, the
Speaker 1: central banks intermediation starts becoming more difficult when, for example,
Speaker 1: the banks separately are unwilling to hold the enormous quantity
Speaker 1: of reserves that are pushed onto the banand sheet. That
Speaker 1: typically means a strong economic recovery where they want to
Speaker 1: expand credit. That's one reason the central bank might find
Speaker 1: it hard to maintain a large balance sheet. The second reason,
Speaker 1: of course, is inflation. Now, neither of these is currently
Speaker 1: a big issue. When this start becoming issues, it is
Speaker 1: very important that the Fed be able to shrink its
Speaker 1: balance sheet by selling assets back on the market, and
Speaker 1: presumably under these two conditions it will be reasonably easy
Speaker 1: to sell assets back onto the market. The the greater
Speaker 1: danger amongst these two stronger credit and stronger inflation is
Speaker 1: probably stronger inflation. And that's why that's just a risk
Speaker 1: over the medium term. It's not a risk today, Professor,
Speaker 1: I was reading a recent column that you wrote, or
Speaker 1: you're arguing for federal governments as well as monetary policymakers
Speaker 1: to withdraw some support. Now, is that an accurate reflection
Speaker 1: of your stance? Now, I'm not saying a withdrawal support. Now.
Speaker 1: What I am saying is, as we go forward, we
Speaker 1: have to change the narrative from this is about a
Speaker 1: couple of months of support to the economy as we
Speaker 1: deal with the pandemic and then things come back. Now,
Speaker 1: that was the narrative which we started the fight within March,
Speaker 1: but now it's becoming much clear this much creer. This
Speaker 1: is going to be a long drawn out battle, and
Speaker 1: some sectors of the economy are going to take years
Speaker 1: to come back. Some sectors will have to transform themselves.
Speaker 1: So what I'm saying is, as we go forward, we
Speaker 1: have to ask how much support do we need and
Speaker 1: where do we still have to continue supporting Hearts and
Speaker 1: Carnival or should we allow them to restructure their debt
Speaker 1: and maybe change their business models so that they can
Speaker 1: deal with the emerging new economy. That's really the question.
Speaker 1: When do we start moving support to enabling transformation rather
Speaker 1: than preserve, preserving the economy as is, and as we
Speaker 1: go forward, we have to move from preservation to transformation,
Speaker 1: both in terms of Treasury policies as well as in
Speaker 1: FED policies. Professor Roger, one final question, and I must
Speaker 1: turn back to the third pillar and your primal scream
Speaker 1: for community in America. This past weekend in Chicago with
Speaker 1: the gang warfare was a war zone with that protest
Speaker 1: from sea to shining sea in America. Your book is
Speaker 1: a book of optimism, but you talk about the intractable
Speaker 1: inability for America to find community. How do we find
Speaker 1: the third pillar? The great question if you look at
Speaker 1: what the pandemic has done, it has exacerbated every division
Speaker 1: we had, whether it's rural, upon whether it's on the
Speaker 1: basis of race, whether it's on the basis of education.
Speaker 1: We're sitting working at home, others are on the front
Speaker 1: line dealing with the pandemic or or serving people in stores.
Speaker 1: So really the issue is how do we bring the
Speaker 1: country together in a stronger way. And I really believe
Speaker 1: we have to look at disadvantaged communities. We'll have to
Speaker 1: look at communities that have fallen behind, and we have
Speaker 1: to ensure that they provide the people is stronger sense
Speaker 1: of belonging, the strongest sense of empowerment, but also greater
Speaker 1: capabilities for the new economy we are creating. That requires
Speaker 1: work bottom up, and that also requires pushing more part
Speaker 1: to them so that they can seize the seeds that
Speaker 1: are and use it effectively. This is a lot of work.
Speaker 1: It requires transformations of our transformation of our economy. It
Speaker 1: requires a lot more decentralization. But I think in the
Speaker 1: long run this will be the way we get sustainable growth,
Speaker 1: not through more and more debt, but through stronger growth
Speaker 1: from every part of economy. So that's that's what the
Speaker 1: book is about. Professor. Already, powerful conversation, and we appreciate
Speaker 1: your time and look forward to getting your back soon.
Speaker 1: That is Professor ram Ranch and the former RBI Caverna
Speaker 1: and the University of Chicago Booths score Professor. Earlier this
Speaker 1: morning in Paris, the O e c D issued what
Speaker 1: I am more than certain was the grimmest report they've
Speaker 1: ever done, and with it was some terrific nuance that
Speaker 1: was led by Lawrence Boone. She is their chief economist
Speaker 1: and has just done a phenomenal job of explaining the
Speaker 1: distinctions of this pandemic, Lawrence, what is the single distinction
Speaker 1: when you overlay this pandemic on the global economy. What's
Speaker 1: the one message you have but the one high Um,
Speaker 1: the one message we have is that we are confronted
Speaker 1: by massive uncertainty. Um. It's a global pandemic, as you say,
Speaker 1: but also a global economic crisis. And it's the it's
Speaker 1: the biggest and perfect clients we are saying. And because
Speaker 1: we have this massive uncertainty, we we had to issue
Speaker 1: two scenarios, two fits of broadcast for the first time
Speaker 1: in a each history, so that we could we could
Speaker 1: flame you know, the extent of what the possible outlook,
Speaker 1: and both of them, as you said, are very dream Lawrence.
Speaker 1: What is so important here is the shift literally in
Speaker 1: the less number of days, but certainly in the last
Speaker 1: two weeks, towards a less prosperous world economy. We had
Speaker 1: a developed nation COVID virus, and now we have the
Speaker 1: COVID virus of an impoverished Mumbai and all of India.
Speaker 1: The horrific statistics out of Chile and the rest of
Speaker 1: South America. What do you people presume will be the
Speaker 1: developing economy effect of this terrible virus. So this is
Speaker 1: one of our major concerns. I do you know developing
Speaker 1: economies usually have less equipped healthcare system. It's much more
Speaker 1: difficult to confine people and provide a shelter because of
Speaker 1: the sheer size of informal workers. UM. They've been hurt
Speaker 1: by a locomoy scientists as well, and what we've seen
Speaker 1: is that capital outflows have been more abrupt and matching
Speaker 1: than in any other crisis. UM. And I think that's
Speaker 1: where the oecy message becomes really really right on points,
Speaker 1: because without cooperating globally, it's going to be very difficult
Speaker 1: both for this country, but for the rest of the
Speaker 1: world as well, including the advanced economy, to renew with
Speaker 1: the type of growth that we had before. Because what
Speaker 1: this is telling us, beyond the financial risk that that
Speaker 1: can be coming from emerging market economies, beyond the human tragedy,
Speaker 1: is that the virus you know, for which we have
Speaker 1: no vaccine or no treatment. As your where you speak
Speaker 1: A said, we'll stay whether if we don't eradicate it
Speaker 1: every where every single country and a fire cooperation is
Speaker 1: still necessary. So dr give us a sense of kind
Speaker 1: of how you think the response has in across uh,
Speaker 1: you know, some of the developed economies here it seems
Speaker 1: like a lot of economies are trying to reopen here. Uh,
Speaker 1: what is your sense of how this might play out?
Speaker 1: What are your forecasting right now? So it's it's very diverse.
Speaker 1: Of course developing economies. You are seeing countries like India
Speaker 1: where there's still some state science confinement. Others are more open.
Speaker 1: The governments trying to reach out to informal people, you know,
Speaker 1: informal workers through digital means and and also by giving
Speaker 1: put tickets. We also have countryline pressing on where the
Speaker 1: type of decision related confinements are being made at the
Speaker 1: state level. Um are others like Columbia who are actually
Speaker 1: putting in place more confinement and reaching out to informal
Speaker 1: workers fo digital. South Africa has been very at the
Speaker 1: forefront of this because they had some of the other
Speaker 1: and of it various clisses before. So it's extremely diverse
Speaker 1: depending on the experience they had and how how is
Speaker 1: you they think about using how compatible they deal with
Speaker 1: digital and also you know how large is the country
Speaker 1: and and dispersed the economic activity. Lawrence, do you have
Speaker 1: of an opinion and a view and you're just so
Speaker 1: experienced at this of the effort of Mirco mccron to
Speaker 1: provide fiscal union in Europe. Have you folded that into
Speaker 1: the o e c D analysis. So I think that's
Speaker 1: super important because one of the main concern that we
Speaker 1: had in the building up of these projections is the
Speaker 1: way that the pandemic, you know, has affected countries within
Speaker 1: the euro Zone in a very different way, and that
Speaker 1: depends not only on the confinement and the way they
Speaker 1: tackle um the pandemic, but it also difference on the
Speaker 1: economic specialization and the type of physical support that country
Speaker 1: is we're able to put in Joyce. So we were
Speaker 1: seeing these divergence across viewers in the country, which I
Speaker 1: do you know, having followed that for a long time,
Speaker 1: is not very helpful. UM. But this, this European recovery
Speaker 1: plan put out by American and Macon is right addressing
Speaker 1: these diregens, and I think this is to be very welcome. Rasford,
Speaker 1: thank you so much in congratulations on a just a
Speaker 1: superb and needed view forward by the O E c D.
Speaker 1: Let's start a program this morning with pre a measure
Speaker 1: of TV securities on this Federal reserve decision several hours away.
Speaker 1: Let's just begin with what you're focused on and what
Speaker 1: you want to hear from that news conference, which M
Speaker 1: and PAL. So you know, I think we're not looking
Speaker 1: for any specific policy. Actually, we're not looking for them
Speaker 1: to strengthen forward guidance. We're not looking for a specific
Speaker 1: dollar amount of they going to be buying per month.
Speaker 1: I think what I'll be focused on is the language.
Speaker 1: How does chap Our frame the outlook frame the reopening.
Speaker 1: You know, we had a pretty positive payroll number, but
Speaker 1: in our on Friday, but in our view that was expected.
Speaker 1: When the economy reopens, you will you are likely to
Speaker 1: see much better data. But I think for Chepower to
Speaker 1: stress on the medium term risks, I think one of
Speaker 1: the things we're really focused on is, yes, we're reopening slowly,
Speaker 1: but are we reopening to a new normal? And we
Speaker 1: just don't know this. So I think for chap Ower
Speaker 1: to say, and for the fact to say there's considerable
Speaker 1: risks in the medium term, we're going to remain highly
Speaker 1: accommodative and sort of suggest that there might be more
Speaker 1: steps in the months ahead. So I think we do
Speaker 1: expect them to undertake geek of control we expect them
Speaker 1: to be buying a lot more longer data treasures. But
Speaker 1: I don't think now is the time to commit to
Speaker 1: that because of all the uncertainty. So I think just
Speaker 1: suggesting that there's still that uncertainty, I think we'll see
Speaker 1: it in then in the dot plot. If the long
Speaker 1: run dot ns down, it will be the lowest ever
Speaker 1: long run not so, I think that will be the
Speaker 1: fact saying, well, maybe there is some impact on our
Speaker 1: star based on the pandemic. Unfortunately we don't have too
Speaker 1: many pandemics to go to. But I think some reflection
Speaker 1: of our star maybe lower inflation. You know, even though
Speaker 1: there's talk around high inflation for some necessities. I think
Speaker 1: to suggest that, unlike a war, capacity is still out there.
Speaker 1: You look outside, there's still all that capacity. It's tremendous
Speaker 1: amount of slack in the system. I think for him
Speaker 1: to stress on that will actually tell the market that
Speaker 1: the fat is likely to be accommodative for a long
Speaker 1: long time. Speaks the love inflation, speaks the love of
Speaker 1: rights for a long long time. Prayer. I just wonder
Speaker 1: if they can make it even more simpler. Just a
Speaker 1: few months ago, if you asked the fellow reserve. What
Speaker 1: their objective was, it would be extending the cycle. Can
Speaker 1: they say something like, we need to get this economy
Speaker 1: back to pre COVID nineteen levels, that's the objective. Amnatory
Speaker 1: policy will be loosen until we get there. I think
Speaker 1: they could. In fact, one form of strengthening forward guidance
Speaker 1: is to make it outcome based um. But I think
Speaker 1: if we realize that there could be a lot of
Speaker 1: structural damage done to the economy, I think it gets
Speaker 1: a little harder for them to commit to pre COVID levels.
Speaker 1: Just remember, the economy is growing at a trend. So
Speaker 1: are we getting back to pre COVID output level or
Speaker 1: are we getting back to pre COVID trend level. I
Speaker 1: think they'd like to get to trend. But if there
Speaker 1: is a lot of structural damage done, if if you
Speaker 1: four start to pick up, I think the FED will
Speaker 1: struggle to say we want to get back to that level,
Speaker 1: but to suggest that we're not about to take the
Speaker 1: foot off the pedal. In fact, we might accelerate more
Speaker 1: in terms of easing if we find that these risks
Speaker 1: that they're talking about. So I think today they really
Speaker 1: stress on the risk if they do materialize as we
Speaker 1: reopen and we're not reopening to the old normal, then
Speaker 1: they actually come in with more. I think that's what
Speaker 1: we really need to see, particularly after the rate rise.
Speaker 1: I mean last week we had a pretty significant rate rice.
Speaker 1: I think the market is trying to test the FED
Speaker 1: to see how accommodative will they be? All are they
Speaker 1: okay with rates being higher? I think chap I will
Speaker 1: be really forcefully in that they don't want much higher
Speaker 1: rates here Priam Israel. When we talk about getting back
Speaker 1: to pre COVID levels, we've already gotten there. When it
Speaker 1: comes to markets in terms of reversing some of the
Speaker 1: losses with the respect of the SMP and NASDAC, there's
Speaker 1: a feeling in markets heads I win tails I win
Speaker 1: because the FED is going to come in and backstop
Speaker 1: asset prices. So far, the Feed has given no indication
Speaker 1: that they would like to push against that. Do you
Speaker 1: think that this impression that the market have has is
Speaker 1: correct that basically this is the one tool the FED
Speaker 1: has and they're going to double down on it, and
Speaker 1: that is keeping asset prices high. Right, great point. I
Speaker 1: mean if you look at the stock market, you'd almost
Speaker 1: say what pandemic. You know that where is is this
Speaker 1: medium term risk being reflected? I think the stock market
Speaker 1: is partly reflecting the fact that the FET has just
Speaker 1: told us that rates are going to be low for
Speaker 1: a very long period of time. So when you just
Speaker 1: count cash flows, that interest rate component is important. That's
Speaker 1: why being multiples rise. I think what we are all
Speaker 1: struggling with rank and I don't have an answer. Nobody
Speaker 1: really knows, is what is the medium term outlook? Has
Speaker 1: there being structural damage done? I think, um, you know,
Speaker 1: the market is right in that interest rates are going
Speaker 1: to go for a long time. I struggled with the
Speaker 1: e component of that. You know, the pe, the pe
Speaker 1: could be higher, but if companies are you know, going
Speaker 1: bankrupt or particularly small businesses getting impacted, and we don't
Speaker 1: do enough on the fiscal front, and this still worries me.
Speaker 1: I expect you're about to make another push for more
Speaker 1: physical stimulus here. I don't think he'll bring up financial
Speaker 1: stability as a reason for them to cut back on
Speaker 1: accommodation because if they do cut back on accommodation and
Speaker 1: you get a pretty big impact on the economy or
Speaker 1: you you know, worsen the recovery process, and that's really
Speaker 1: the worst case outcomes. So I don't think they stressed
Speaker 1: on financial stability, but I do think the stock market
Speaker 1: is pricing in this getting back to normal, and that's
Speaker 1: what really I we we struggled with as to what
Speaker 1: new normal is. We've got to have sophisticates here on
Speaker 1: the bond market. That would be you, Lisa Bramo. It's
Speaker 1: in the host of the real yield. John Farrell from
Speaker 1: Mere Mortals like me. Can you explain to me is
Speaker 1: the FED action that is talk or is the FED
Speaker 1: action that's actual tangible action? What part of where they
Speaker 1: are right now are they Are they all talk in
Speaker 1: promise or they actually doing right now? Um, so they've
Speaker 1: done a lot. I think we shouldn't forget how much
Speaker 1: they did in March. In fact, some of the facilities
Speaker 1: are still getting ruled out, so I would not discount
Speaker 1: the action part. They did take grades down to zero
Speaker 1: they've been suggesting through talk and forward guidance is a
Speaker 1: very powerful tool. I think the innovation of the two
Speaker 1: eight crisis was forward guidance. The FED discovered that if
Speaker 1: you tell the market that you're not hiking for a
Speaker 1: long time, that can keep rates law that can help
Speaker 1: asset prices um you know, so I think they continue
Speaker 1: to use that as a tool. That talk is powerful.
Speaker 1: They do have various ways they can talk, Fed speeches,
Speaker 1: press conference. The dot plot is one form of that
Speaker 1: communication as well. The action will be needed though at
Speaker 1: some point, particularly when you talk about the tenure, because
Speaker 1: talk can only really anchor the front end. So I'll
Speaker 1: be certainly watching for how to see frame, how to
Speaker 1: share out frame. The QUE program isn't just about market functioning,
Speaker 1: because if that's the case, treasury markets functioning just fine,
Speaker 1: they can stop q ME here. I don't think that's
Speaker 1: the right policy. I think that's going to result in
Speaker 1: a big rising rates. So the action will be needed. Now,
Speaker 1: the Fed every week does buy treasuries. I think they
Speaker 1: retain that flexibility to buy as much as they want,
Speaker 1: as much as is needed as where on the curve.
Speaker 1: But I think we do want to hear some talk
Speaker 1: that's helpful for the long end as to how they're
Speaker 1: framing it. I think suggesting that we don't want longer
Speaker 1: to term rates rising will tell us that the Fed
Speaker 1: will buy as much as needed to keep that long
Speaker 1: end anchored until we know that the economy can handle higher,
Speaker 1: so I wouldn't scoundrel brilliant work as always and always
Speaker 1: enjoy catching out with its ad security has had a
Speaker 1: global right strategy ahead of that fat decision. Prays that
Speaker 1: my best at the same Well you, It has been
Speaker 1: an extraordinary day for Bloomberg Surveillance and wonderful conversation including
Speaker 1: Professor Rajan moments ago you heard from Olivier Blanchard, who
Speaker 1: we spoke to yesterday. It is now time to turn
Speaker 1: to the equivalent in New York City real estate. Some
Speaker 1: people do real estate and they go on with their lives,
Speaker 1: and others actually become part of the fabric of the community.
Speaker 1: William Rewden has done that. He has been hugely upfront
Speaker 1: on the development of real estate in New York City
Speaker 1: that has a social good and a social fabric. We
Speaker 1: are thrilled to bring him to you. Is New York
Speaker 1: City reopens, Bill one. Thank you so much for being
Speaker 1: with us today. What is the last few weeks been
Speaker 1: like for you, your properties and the people within those properties. Well,
Speaker 1: first of all, Tom, thank you and the rest of
Speaker 1: the team for for having me on. And I think
Speaker 1: you know your your professor Rajan just talked about community
Speaker 1: and you mentioned it and and what what we what
Speaker 1: we find and what we work on is creating communities
Speaker 1: and trying to bring people together. And we obviously have
Speaker 1: gone through over the last several months a very difficult
Speaker 1: period of time. And in the last couple of weeks.
Speaker 1: Uh you know, uh, there there have been I think
Speaker 1: dramatic sea changes in the way. Hopefully people look forward
Speaker 1: and try to bring our communities together, because that's that's
Speaker 1: really critical. And I think our city is you know,
Speaker 1: so diverse, and uh that's our strength. And how do
Speaker 1: we bring people together? And you can't do that working
Speaker 1: from home? And I think you know some of your
Speaker 1: other speakers have talked about that too. You you have
Speaker 1: to be working in your office, working together. Um. You know,
Speaker 1: I talked about collaboration, community connectivity. So that's what we
Speaker 1: have to keep doing to move forward our economy. And
Speaker 1: the you know, Phase one opened up the other day
Speaker 1: in New York. You had almost uh people on using
Speaker 1: the subway. The governor and the mayor done an incredible
Speaker 1: job to we were you know peak you know, several
Speaker 1: thousand people a day getting sick today, uh is I
Speaker 1: mentioned I don't mean to interrupt Hill, but just because
Speaker 1: the time, and I know Lise's got a whole bunch
Speaker 1: of questions here is Well, what I find so important,
Speaker 1: Bill is hope. We have to develop a hope of
Speaker 1: the people. Maybe they're not protesting, maybe they're certainly not looting,
Speaker 1: but they have lost hope over the last X number
Speaker 1: of years. Not about the pandemic, they've just lost hope
Speaker 1: in development. How do we jump start that hope within
Speaker 1: the Greater New York's any region. Well, I think the
Speaker 1: first step is opening Phase one and then in a
Speaker 1: couple of weeks from now, opening Phase two. Getting our
Speaker 1: city back and in the economy moving again, creating. Uh.
Speaker 1: You know, the construction cranes are working, the men and
Speaker 1: women on those sites are back into work, almost four
Speaker 1: d people. That is a sign of hope. And and
Speaker 1: you're right, we need to have we need to have
Speaker 1: signs that give us guidance that things are going to
Speaker 1: get better. Uh. You're seeing legislation, you know in New
Speaker 1: York State yesterday. Uh in terms of of of of
Speaker 1: changes in policing. Uh. We have to work together with
Speaker 1: communities and and create better policing policies where people feel
Speaker 1: confident about their their police and um and we have
Speaker 1: to create economic opportunities for for all spectrums of of
Speaker 1: of our of of our population. And we're gonna do that,
Speaker 1: and you're gonna see New York City be at the
Speaker 1: forefront of job creation, dealing with issues from racial and
Speaker 1: justice to affordable housing to education. That's what we do.
Speaker 1: And we've come back before from from major tragic events
Speaker 1: and we've worked together. This is an entrepreneurial spirit. You
Speaker 1: talked about hope. We've come back before from in the
Speaker 1: early nineties where we had nineties million feet in Lower Manhattan,
Speaker 1: you had thirty vacancy. We came together, We converted office
Speaker 1: buildings to residential. We we we created tax incentives for
Speaker 1: companies to move downtown. You create Now you have seventy
Speaker 1: thousand people living in Lower Manhattan from ten thousand, five
Speaker 1: years ago. So there there are symbols out there. Nine eleven. Uh.
Speaker 1: We came back after Sandy. We came back. Well, Bill,
Speaker 1: let's talk about the hope versus the here and now.
Speaker 1: As you own seventeen office buildings, I believe throughout the city,
Speaker 1: what's the demand like right now for that office space? Obviously,
Speaker 1: when the city and the country went on pause, things
Speaker 1: slowed down. But there you know again, you know, going
Speaker 1: back to the hope, A lease was signed two weeks
Speaker 1: ago by TikTok in Times Square for over two feet
Speaker 1: over a thousand people are going to move into UH
Speaker 1: an office building on Street. That's hope. That's a sign
Speaker 1: that things are gonna turn around. We're working on different deals.
Speaker 1: I know a lot of my colleagues are working on things. Unfortunately,
Speaker 1: things got you know, put on on pause. But as
Speaker 1: soon as we start opening up to the economy, I
Speaker 1: think you'll start seeing activity uh leasing, both commercial and residential,
Speaker 1: and people starting to come back into the city. Bill
Speaker 1: got to leave it there. Bill Ruden, thank you so
Speaker 1: much for the update on the spirit of New York
Speaker 1: City and of course with the many many properties that
Speaker 1: he has that he's built, particularly his historic effort in
Speaker 1: Battery Park after UH eleven William Reuten on the Spirit
Speaker 1: of New York. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast.
Speaker 1: Subscribe and listen to interviews on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or
Speaker 1: whichever podcast platform you prefer. I'm on Twitter at Tom Keene.
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