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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane. Daily

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Speaker 1: we bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment,

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Speaker 1: and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud,

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com, and of course on the Bloomberg John

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Speaker 1: and his FED Day, And of course we'll talk to

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Speaker 1: our Steam guest here about FED Day. This weekend I

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Speaker 1: will put out, folks my book of the summer. One

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Speaker 1: of them I'm gonna surprise with on LinkedIn here this weekend.

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Speaker 1: It's a wonderful, wonderful book on international relations. And the

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Speaker 1: other one is The Third Pillar. It was a book

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Speaker 1: last year that was extraordinary on community and is absolutely

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Speaker 1: the book of the moment right now with what this

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Speaker 1: nation is going through. Rob and Roger joins us from

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Speaker 1: Boost School Chicago. He's the author of The Third Pillar,

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Speaker 1: and yes, the former central bankhead for his India. We'll

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Speaker 1: get to that here in a wide ranging discussion Rago,

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Speaker 1: we have to talk about federals or policy today. I

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Speaker 1: understand you have a little bit of reticence about that,

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Speaker 1: but the identifiable fault line of our central bank policy

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Speaker 1: is somewhere out there, somehow the debt has to diminish.

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Speaker 1: How will they do that? Well, they can't really do

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Speaker 1: anything about it for now. What they have to do,

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Speaker 1: and what they've been doing very effectively, is support all markets.

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Speaker 1: The problem is when you support all markets, you are

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Speaker 1: not letting the markets do their work. And the question

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Speaker 1: is when do you allow that to happen. So take,

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Speaker 1: for example, the highly indebted companies like Earths, which are

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Speaker 1: experiencing a revival without any debt restructuring as we go on,

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Speaker 1: the question is when do we allow them to restructure

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Speaker 1: their debt so they can emerge elder from this crisis.

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Speaker 1: And that's the question the FED will have to grapple with.

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Speaker 1: With all the market supports, when does it allow the

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Speaker 1: market to start operating on its own rago does the

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Speaker 1: FED risk its independence? We had a conversation earlier today

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Speaker 1: about how the FED came out of the nineteen forties

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Speaker 1: in World War Two and basically had to nationalize the

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Speaker 1: debt economy to allow the nation to recover. Is the

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Speaker 1: great unseen out there is we have a FED that

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Speaker 1: loses its independence at some point? Well, I hope not,

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Speaker 1: but the forces that pushed for FED independence are no

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Speaker 1: longer operating right. Remember, the big issue in the eighties

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Speaker 1: was very high inflation, which is what Paul Wolker tackled

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Speaker 1: by bringing by raising interest rate sky high. The reason

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Speaker 1: for FED independence then was that inflation was the problem,

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Speaker 1: and making the FED independent of the government would allow

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Speaker 1: it to operate and bring it down. Today, we no

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Speaker 1: longer have an inflation problem. If anything, it's a disinflation

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Speaker 1: problem in the short term. And therefore, when the need

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Speaker 1: for the FED is really to support the economy, for

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Speaker 1: the FED to cooperate with the Treasury and it's doing

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Speaker 1: very well, the rationals for FED independence become a little

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Speaker 1: less cure my senses. It will re establish itself again

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Speaker 1: over the medium term, but in the short run that

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Speaker 1: rationality is no longer on the people. Well, this is

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Speaker 1: the issue, isn't it, Professor, The perception of independence and

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Speaker 1: central bank independence. If these two both the treasury or

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Speaker 1: the fiscal policy side of things, it's going to work

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Speaker 1: closer with monetary policy in the year and years to

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Speaker 1: come as they actively support issuance from governments. How do

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Speaker 1: they maintain the perception of independence in an environment where

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Speaker 1: both sides are working together to make sure that we

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Speaker 1: can have the kind of Treasury issuance that we've had

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Speaker 1: over the last few months. Well, this is a really

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Speaker 1: big question. It has to work through institutional independent and

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Speaker 1: so for example, protecting the position of the PET chairman UH,

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Speaker 1: for government to stay away from criticizing the FED for

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Speaker 1: whatever it does and pushing for more overt activity. It

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Speaker 1: has to be a discussion which is on equal terms

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Speaker 1: between the Treasury and the FED. It cannot be one

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Speaker 1: side pushing the other. That will all too perceptions of

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Speaker 1: bet independence. I think the FED is doing a fantastic

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Speaker 1: job in cooperating. It's done everything is possibly could. But

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Speaker 1: there has to be a reciprocal arrangement from the government

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Speaker 1: side to respect the independence and not make over statements

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Speaker 1: about what it should do. Professor right, I want to

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Speaker 1: cause any dramatic headlines for you, but if we can

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Speaker 1: lean on your experience of the r PI and just

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Speaker 1: reflect them, what's happening and developed central banks right now?

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Speaker 1: To some degree, do you think they are taking on

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Speaker 1: emerging market characteristics? How these central banks are operating together

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Speaker 1: with fiscal authorities for sure. I mean this was always

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Speaker 1: an emerging the problem. The central bank was under the

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Speaker 1: thumb of the fiscal authorities and essentially had to monetize

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Speaker 1: the debt. In many industrial countries, we are in a

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Speaker 1: similar situation with enormous amounts of debt having to be

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Speaker 1: put out into the markets and the central banks taking

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Speaker 1: it on on their balance sheet. If you look at

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Speaker 1: the Fed's balance she takes it's expanded from four trillion

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Speaker 1: to seven trillion in space a few a few weeks.

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Speaker 1: This looks a lot like monetization, and it's very helpful

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Speaker 1: in the enabling the government to issue, but it has

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Speaker 1: to be seen as temporary and not a permanent facet

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Speaker 1: of the landscape. That's what they have to work very

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Speaker 1: hard on doing on ensuring there is separation. The Fed

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Speaker 1: is willingly doing it in honor in order to meet

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Speaker 1: its mandate, not something that's being forced on it by

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Speaker 1: the trade professor. A lot of people don't really see

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Speaker 1: a path for the Federal Reserve to shrink its balance

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Speaker 1: sheet at this point, and doesn't seem like there's any

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Speaker 1: fiscal hawks left in Washington, d C. Is they try

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Speaker 1: to support this government. What's the potential consequence, I mean

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Speaker 1: building what you were talking about, its developing markets. Their

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Speaker 1: currency is the escape hatch. There right, it deflates it

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Speaker 1: it depreciates versus other currencies when this fiscal balance gets

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Speaker 1: super out of whack. We're not seeing that though right now,

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Speaker 1: at the weakening of the dollar being attributed to risk

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Speaker 1: on rather than a lack of credibility. At what point

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Speaker 1: is the currency back in play here? Well, Typically, the

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Speaker 1: central banks intermediation starts becoming more difficult when, for example,

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Speaker 1: the banks separately are unwilling to hold the enormous quantity

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Speaker 1: of reserves that are pushed onto the banand sheet. That

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Speaker 1: typically means a strong economic recovery where they want to

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Speaker 1: expand credit. That's one reason the central bank might find

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Speaker 1: it hard to maintain a large balance sheet. The second reason,

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Speaker 1: of course, is inflation. Now, neither of these is currently

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Speaker 1: a big issue. When this start becoming issues, it is

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Speaker 1: very important that the Fed be able to shrink its

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Speaker 1: balance sheet by selling assets back on the market, and

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Speaker 1: presumably under these two conditions it will be reasonably easy

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Speaker 1: to sell assets back onto the market. The the greater

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Speaker 1: danger amongst these two stronger credit and stronger inflation is

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Speaker 1: probably stronger inflation. And that's why that's just a risk

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Speaker 1: over the medium term. It's not a risk today, Professor,

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Speaker 1: I was reading a recent column that you wrote, or

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Speaker 1: you're arguing for federal governments as well as monetary policymakers

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Speaker 1: to withdraw some support. Now, is that an accurate reflection

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Speaker 1: of your stance? Now, I'm not saying a withdrawal support. Now.

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Speaker 1: What I am saying is, as we go forward, we

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Speaker 1: have to change the narrative from this is about a

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Speaker 1: couple of months of support to the economy as we

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Speaker 1: deal with the pandemic and then things come back. Now,

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Speaker 1: that was the narrative which we started the fight within March,

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Speaker 1: but now it's becoming much clear this much creer. This

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Speaker 1: is going to be a long drawn out battle, and

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Speaker 1: some sectors of the economy are going to take years

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Speaker 1: to come back. Some sectors will have to transform themselves.

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Speaker 1: So what I'm saying is, as we go forward, we

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Speaker 1: have to ask how much support do we need and

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Speaker 1: where do we still have to continue supporting Hearts and

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Speaker 1: Carnival or should we allow them to restructure their debt

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Speaker 1: and maybe change their business models so that they can

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Speaker 1: deal with the emerging new economy. That's really the question.

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Speaker 1: When do we start moving support to enabling transformation rather

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Speaker 1: than preserve, preserving the economy as is, and as we

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Speaker 1: go forward, we have to move from preservation to transformation,

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Speaker 1: both in terms of Treasury policies as well as in

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Speaker 1: FED policies. Professor Roger, one final question, and I must

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Speaker 1: turn back to the third pillar and your primal scream

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Speaker 1: for community in America. This past weekend in Chicago with

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Speaker 1: the gang warfare was a war zone with that protest

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Speaker 1: from sea to shining sea in America. Your book is

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Speaker 1: a book of optimism, but you talk about the intractable

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Speaker 1: inability for America to find community. How do we find

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Speaker 1: the third pillar? The great question if you look at

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Speaker 1: what the pandemic has done, it has exacerbated every division

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Speaker 1: we had, whether it's rural, upon whether it's on the

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Speaker 1: basis of race, whether it's on the basis of education.

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Speaker 1: We're sitting working at home, others are on the front

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Speaker 1: line dealing with the pandemic or or serving people in stores.

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Speaker 1: So really the issue is how do we bring the

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Speaker 1: country together in a stronger way. And I really believe

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Speaker 1: we have to look at disadvantaged communities. We'll have to

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Speaker 1: look at communities that have fallen behind, and we have

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Speaker 1: to ensure that they provide the people is stronger sense

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Speaker 1: of belonging, the strongest sense of empowerment, but also greater

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Speaker 1: capabilities for the new economy we are creating. That requires

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Speaker 1: work bottom up, and that also requires pushing more part

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Speaker 1: to them so that they can seize the seeds that

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Speaker 1: are and use it effectively. This is a lot of work.

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Speaker 1: It requires transformations of our transformation of our economy. It

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Speaker 1: requires a lot more decentralization. But I think in the

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Speaker 1: long run this will be the way we get sustainable growth,

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Speaker 1: not through more and more debt, but through stronger growth

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Speaker 1: from every part of economy. So that's that's what the

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Speaker 1: book is about. Professor. Already, powerful conversation, and we appreciate

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Speaker 1: your time and look forward to getting your back soon.

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Speaker 1: That is Professor ram Ranch and the former RBI Caverna

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Speaker 1: and the University of Chicago Booths score Professor. Earlier this

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Speaker 1: morning in Paris, the O e c D issued what

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Speaker 1: I am more than certain was the grimmest report they've

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Speaker 1: ever done, and with it was some terrific nuance that

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Speaker 1: was led by Lawrence Boone. She is their chief economist

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Speaker 1: and has just done a phenomenal job of explaining the

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Speaker 1: distinctions of this pandemic, Lawrence, what is the single distinction

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Speaker 1: when you overlay this pandemic on the global economy. What's

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Speaker 1: the one message you have but the one high Um,

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Speaker 1: the one message we have is that we are confronted

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Speaker 1: by massive uncertainty. Um. It's a global pandemic, as you say,

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Speaker 1: but also a global economic crisis. And it's the it's

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Speaker 1: the biggest and perfect clients we are saying. And because

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Speaker 1: we have this massive uncertainty, we we had to issue

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Speaker 1: two scenarios, two fits of broadcast for the first time

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Speaker 1: in a each history, so that we could we could

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Speaker 1: flame you know, the extent of what the possible outlook,

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Speaker 1: and both of them, as you said, are very dream Lawrence.

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Speaker 1: What is so important here is the shift literally in

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Speaker 1: the less number of days, but certainly in the last

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Speaker 1: two weeks, towards a less prosperous world economy. We had

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Speaker 1: a developed nation COVID virus, and now we have the

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Speaker 1: COVID virus of an impoverished Mumbai and all of India.

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Speaker 1: The horrific statistics out of Chile and the rest of

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Speaker 1: South America. What do you people presume will be the

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Speaker 1: developing economy effect of this terrible virus. So this is

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Speaker 1: one of our major concerns. I do you know developing

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Speaker 1: economies usually have less equipped healthcare system. It's much more

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Speaker 1: difficult to confine people and provide a shelter because of

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Speaker 1: the sheer size of informal workers. UM. They've been hurt

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Speaker 1: by a locomoy scientists as well, and what we've seen

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Speaker 1: is that capital outflows have been more abrupt and matching

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Speaker 1: than in any other crisis. UM. And I think that's

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Speaker 1: where the oecy message becomes really really right on points,

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Speaker 1: because without cooperating globally, it's going to be very difficult

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Speaker 1: both for this country, but for the rest of the

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Speaker 1: world as well, including the advanced economy, to renew with

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Speaker 1: the type of growth that we had before. Because what

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Speaker 1: this is telling us, beyond the financial risk that that

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Speaker 1: can be coming from emerging market economies, beyond the human tragedy,

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Speaker 1: is that the virus you know, for which we have

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Speaker 1: no vaccine or no treatment. As your where you speak

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Speaker 1: A said, we'll stay whether if we don't eradicate it

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Speaker 1: every where every single country and a fire cooperation is

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Speaker 1: still necessary. So dr give us a sense of kind

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Speaker 1: of how you think the response has in across uh,

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Speaker 1: you know, some of the developed economies here it seems

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Speaker 1: like a lot of economies are trying to reopen here. Uh,

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Speaker 1: what is your sense of how this might play out?

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Speaker 1: What are your forecasting right now? So it's it's very diverse.

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Speaker 1: Of course developing economies. You are seeing countries like India

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Speaker 1: where there's still some state science confinement. Others are more open.

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Speaker 1: The governments trying to reach out to informal people, you know,

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Speaker 1: informal workers through digital means and and also by giving

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Speaker 1: put tickets. We also have countryline pressing on where the

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Speaker 1: type of decision related confinements are being made at the

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Speaker 1: state level. Um are others like Columbia who are actually

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Speaker 1: putting in place more confinement and reaching out to informal

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Speaker 1: workers fo digital. South Africa has been very at the

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Speaker 1: forefront of this because they had some of the other

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Speaker 1: and of it various clisses before. So it's extremely diverse

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Speaker 1: depending on the experience they had and how how is

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Speaker 1: you they think about using how compatible they deal with

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Speaker 1: digital and also you know how large is the country

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Speaker 1: and and dispersed the economic activity. Lawrence, do you have

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Speaker 1: of an opinion and a view and you're just so

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Speaker 1: experienced at this of the effort of Mirco mccron to

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Speaker 1: provide fiscal union in Europe. Have you folded that into

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Speaker 1: the o e c D analysis. So I think that's

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Speaker 1: super important because one of the main concern that we

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Speaker 1: had in the building up of these projections is the

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Speaker 1: way that the pandemic, you know, has affected countries within

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Speaker 1: the euro Zone in a very different way, and that

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Speaker 1: depends not only on the confinement and the way they

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Speaker 1: tackle um the pandemic, but it also difference on the

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Speaker 1: economic specialization and the type of physical support that country

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Speaker 1: is we're able to put in Joyce. So we were

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Speaker 1: seeing these divergence across viewers in the country, which I

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Speaker 1: do you know, having followed that for a long time,

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Speaker 1: is not very helpful. UM. But this, this European recovery

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Speaker 1: plan put out by American and Macon is right addressing

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Speaker 1: these diregens, and I think this is to be very welcome. Rasford,

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Speaker 1: thank you so much in congratulations on a just a

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Speaker 1: superb and needed view forward by the O E c D.

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Speaker 1: Let's start a program this morning with pre a measure

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Speaker 1: of TV securities on this Federal reserve decision several hours away.

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Speaker 1: Let's just begin with what you're focused on and what

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Speaker 1: you want to hear from that news conference, which M

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Speaker 1: and PAL. So you know, I think we're not looking

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Speaker 1: for any specific policy. Actually, we're not looking for them

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Speaker 1: to strengthen forward guidance. We're not looking for a specific

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Speaker 1: dollar amount of they going to be buying per month.

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Speaker 1: I think what I'll be focused on is the language.

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Speaker 1: How does chap Our frame the outlook frame the reopening.

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Speaker 1: You know, we had a pretty positive payroll number, but

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Speaker 1: in our on Friday, but in our view that was expected.

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Speaker 1: When the economy reopens, you will you are likely to

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Speaker 1: see much better data. But I think for Chepower to

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Speaker 1: stress on the medium term risks, I think one of

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Speaker 1: the things we're really focused on is, yes, we're reopening slowly,

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Speaker 1: but are we reopening to a new normal? And we

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Speaker 1: just don't know this. So I think for chap Ower

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Speaker 1: to say, and for the fact to say there's considerable

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Speaker 1: risks in the medium term, we're going to remain highly

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Speaker 1: accommodative and sort of suggest that there might be more

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Speaker 1: steps in the months ahead. So I think we do

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Speaker 1: expect them to undertake geek of control we expect them

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Speaker 1: to be buying a lot more longer data treasures. But

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Speaker 1: I don't think now is the time to commit to

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Speaker 1: that because of all the uncertainty. So I think just

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Speaker 1: suggesting that there's still that uncertainty, I think we'll see

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Speaker 1: it in then in the dot plot. If the long

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Speaker 1: run dot ns down, it will be the lowest ever

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Speaker 1: long run not so, I think that will be the

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Speaker 1: fact saying, well, maybe there is some impact on our

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Speaker 1: star based on the pandemic. Unfortunately we don't have too

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Speaker 1: many pandemics to go to. But I think some reflection

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Speaker 1: of our star maybe lower inflation. You know, even though

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Speaker 1: there's talk around high inflation for some necessities. I think

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Speaker 1: to suggest that, unlike a war, capacity is still out there.

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Speaker 1: You look outside, there's still all that capacity. It's tremendous

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Speaker 1: amount of slack in the system. I think for him

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Speaker 1: to stress on that will actually tell the market that

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Speaker 1: the fat is likely to be accommodative for a long

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Speaker 1: long time. Speaks the love inflation, speaks the love of

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Speaker 1: rights for a long long time. Prayer. I just wonder

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Speaker 1: if they can make it even more simpler. Just a

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Speaker 1: few months ago, if you asked the fellow reserve. What

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Speaker 1: their objective was, it would be extending the cycle. Can

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Speaker 1: they say something like, we need to get this economy

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Speaker 1: back to pre COVID nineteen levels, that's the objective. Amnatory

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Speaker 1: policy will be loosen until we get there. I think

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Speaker 1: they could. In fact, one form of strengthening forward guidance

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Speaker 1: is to make it outcome based um. But I think

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Speaker 1: if we realize that there could be a lot of

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Speaker 1: structural damage done to the economy, I think it gets

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Speaker 1: a little harder for them to commit to pre COVID levels.

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Speaker 1: Just remember, the economy is growing at a trend. So

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Speaker 1: are we getting back to pre COVID output level or

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Speaker 1: are we getting back to pre COVID trend level. I

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Speaker 1: think they'd like to get to trend. But if there

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Speaker 1: is a lot of structural damage done, if if you

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Speaker 1: four start to pick up, I think the FED will

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Speaker 1: struggle to say we want to get back to that level,

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Speaker 1: but to suggest that we're not about to take the

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Speaker 1: foot off the pedal. In fact, we might accelerate more

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Speaker 1: in terms of easing if we find that these risks

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Speaker 1: that they're talking about. So I think today they really

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Speaker 1: stress on the risk if they do materialize as we

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Speaker 1: reopen and we're not reopening to the old normal, then

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Speaker 1: they actually come in with more. I think that's what

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Speaker 1: we really need to see, particularly after the rate rise.

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Speaker 1: I mean last week we had a pretty significant rate rice.

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Speaker 1: I think the market is trying to test the FED

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Speaker 1: to see how accommodative will they be? All are they

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Speaker 1: okay with rates being higher? I think chap I will

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Speaker 1: be really forcefully in that they don't want much higher

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Speaker 1: rates here Priam Israel. When we talk about getting back

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Speaker 1: to pre COVID levels, we've already gotten there. When it

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Speaker 1: comes to markets in terms of reversing some of the

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Speaker 1: losses with the respect of the SMP and NASDAC, there's

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Speaker 1: a feeling in markets heads I win tails I win

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Speaker 1: because the FED is going to come in and backstop

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Speaker 1: asset prices. So far, the Feed has given no indication

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Speaker 1: that they would like to push against that. Do you

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Speaker 1: think that this impression that the market have has is

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Speaker 1: correct that basically this is the one tool the FED

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Speaker 1: has and they're going to double down on it, and

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Speaker 1: that is keeping asset prices high. Right, great point. I

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Speaker 1: mean if you look at the stock market, you'd almost

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Speaker 1: say what pandemic. You know that where is is this

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Speaker 1: medium term risk being reflected? I think the stock market

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Speaker 1: is partly reflecting the fact that the FET has just

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Speaker 1: told us that rates are going to be low for

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Speaker 1: a very long period of time. So when you just

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Speaker 1: count cash flows, that interest rate component is important. That's

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Speaker 1: why being multiples rise. I think what we are all

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Speaker 1: struggling with rank and I don't have an answer. Nobody

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Speaker 1: really knows, is what is the medium term outlook? Has

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Speaker 1: there being structural damage done? I think, um, you know,

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Speaker 1: the market is right in that interest rates are going

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Speaker 1: to go for a long time. I struggled with the

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Speaker 1: e component of that. You know, the pe, the pe

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Speaker 1: could be higher, but if companies are you know, going

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Speaker 1: bankrupt or particularly small businesses getting impacted, and we don't

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Speaker 1: do enough on the fiscal front, and this still worries me.

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Speaker 1: I expect you're about to make another push for more

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Speaker 1: physical stimulus here. I don't think he'll bring up financial

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Speaker 1: stability as a reason for them to cut back on

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Speaker 1: accommodation because if they do cut back on accommodation and

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Speaker 1: you get a pretty big impact on the economy or

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Speaker 1: you you know, worsen the recovery process, and that's really

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Speaker 1: the worst case outcomes. So I don't think they stressed

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Speaker 1: on financial stability, but I do think the stock market

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Speaker 1: is pricing in this getting back to normal, and that's

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Speaker 1: what really I we we struggled with as to what

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Speaker 1: new normal is. We've got to have sophisticates here on

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Speaker 1: the bond market. That would be you, Lisa Bramo. It's

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Speaker 1: in the host of the real yield. John Farrell from

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Speaker 1: Mere Mortals like me. Can you explain to me is

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Speaker 1: the FED action that is talk or is the FED

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Speaker 1: action that's actual tangible action? What part of where they

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Speaker 1: are right now are they Are they all talk in

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Speaker 1: promise or they actually doing right now? Um, so they've

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Speaker 1: done a lot. I think we shouldn't forget how much

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Speaker 1: they did in March. In fact, some of the facilities

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Speaker 1: are still getting ruled out, so I would not discount

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Speaker 1: the action part. They did take grades down to zero

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Speaker 1: they've been suggesting through talk and forward guidance is a

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Speaker 1: very powerful tool. I think the innovation of the two

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Speaker 1: eight crisis was forward guidance. The FED discovered that if

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Speaker 1: you tell the market that you're not hiking for a

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Speaker 1: long time, that can keep rates law that can help

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Speaker 1: asset prices um you know, so I think they continue

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Speaker 1: to use that as a tool. That talk is powerful.

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Speaker 1: They do have various ways they can talk, Fed speeches,

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Speaker 1: press conference. The dot plot is one form of that

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Speaker 1: communication as well. The action will be needed though at

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Speaker 1: some point, particularly when you talk about the tenure, because

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Speaker 1: talk can only really anchor the front end. So I'll

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Speaker 1: be certainly watching for how to see frame, how to

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Speaker 1: share out frame. The QUE program isn't just about market functioning,

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Speaker 1: because if that's the case, treasury markets functioning just fine,

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Speaker 1: they can stop q ME here. I don't think that's

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Speaker 1: the right policy. I think that's going to result in

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Speaker 1: a big rising rates. So the action will be needed. Now,

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Speaker 1: the Fed every week does buy treasuries. I think they

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Speaker 1: retain that flexibility to buy as much as they want,

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Speaker 1: as much as is needed as where on the curve.

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Speaker 1: But I think we do want to hear some talk

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Speaker 1: that's helpful for the long end as to how they're

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Speaker 1: framing it. I think suggesting that we don't want longer

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Speaker 1: to term rates rising will tell us that the Fed

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Speaker 1: will buy as much as needed to keep that long

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Speaker 1: end anchored until we know that the economy can handle higher,

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Speaker 1: so I wouldn't scoundrel brilliant work as always and always

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Speaker 1: enjoy catching out with its ad security has had a

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Speaker 1: global right strategy ahead of that fat decision. Prays that

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Speaker 1: my best at the same Well you, It has been

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Speaker 1: an extraordinary day for Bloomberg Surveillance and wonderful conversation including

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Speaker 1: Professor Rajan moments ago you heard from Olivier Blanchard, who

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Speaker 1: we spoke to yesterday. It is now time to turn

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Speaker 1: to the equivalent in New York City real estate. Some

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Speaker 1: people do real estate and they go on with their lives,

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Speaker 1: and others actually become part of the fabric of the community.

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Speaker 1: William Rewden has done that. He has been hugely upfront

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Speaker 1: on the development of real estate in New York City

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Speaker 1: that has a social good and a social fabric. We

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Speaker 1: are thrilled to bring him to you. Is New York

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Speaker 1: City reopens, Bill one. Thank you so much for being

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Speaker 1: with us today. What is the last few weeks been

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Speaker 1: like for you, your properties and the people within those properties. Well,

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Speaker 1: first of all, Tom, thank you and the rest of

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Speaker 1: the team for for having me on. And I think

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Speaker 1: you know your your professor Rajan just talked about community

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Speaker 1: and you mentioned it and and what what we what

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Speaker 1: we find and what we work on is creating communities

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00:25:20,960 --> 00:25:24,919
Speaker 1: and trying to bring people together. And we obviously have

436
00:25:25,040 --> 00:25:28,000
Speaker 1: gone through over the last several months a very difficult

437
00:25:28,000 --> 00:25:30,720
Speaker 1: period of time. And in the last couple of weeks.

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00:25:31,240 --> 00:25:34,440
Speaker 1: Uh you know, uh, there there have been I think

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00:25:34,520 --> 00:25:38,639
Speaker 1: dramatic sea changes in the way. Hopefully people look forward

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00:25:38,720 --> 00:25:41,840
Speaker 1: and try to bring our communities together, because that's that's

441
00:25:41,880 --> 00:25:45,199
Speaker 1: really critical. And I think our city is you know,

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00:25:45,480 --> 00:25:49,560
Speaker 1: so diverse, and uh that's our strength. And how do

443
00:25:49,640 --> 00:25:53,080
Speaker 1: we bring people together? And you can't do that working

444
00:25:53,119 --> 00:25:55,320
Speaker 1: from home? And I think you know some of your

445
00:25:55,320 --> 00:25:58,359
Speaker 1: other speakers have talked about that too. You you have

446
00:25:58,520 --> 00:26:03,679
Speaker 1: to be working in your office, working together. Um. You know,

447
00:26:03,720 --> 00:26:08,600
Speaker 1: I talked about collaboration, community connectivity. So that's what we

448
00:26:08,640 --> 00:26:11,320
Speaker 1: have to keep doing to move forward our economy. And

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00:26:11,359 --> 00:26:13,840
Speaker 1: the you know, Phase one opened up the other day

450
00:26:13,880 --> 00:26:18,120
Speaker 1: in New York. You had almost uh people on using

451
00:26:18,160 --> 00:26:21,440
Speaker 1: the subway. The governor and the mayor done an incredible

452
00:26:21,520 --> 00:26:24,679
Speaker 1: job to we were you know peak you know, several

453
00:26:24,680 --> 00:26:29,800
Speaker 1: thousand people a day getting sick today, uh is I

454
00:26:29,840 --> 00:26:31,760
Speaker 1: mentioned I don't mean to interrupt Hill, but just because

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00:26:31,760 --> 00:26:33,520
Speaker 1: the time, and I know Lise's got a whole bunch

456
00:26:33,520 --> 00:26:36,680
Speaker 1: of questions here is Well, what I find so important,

457
00:26:36,800 --> 00:26:41,840
Speaker 1: Bill is hope. We have to develop a hope of

458
00:26:41,880 --> 00:26:46,160
Speaker 1: the people. Maybe they're not protesting, maybe they're certainly not looting,

459
00:26:46,560 --> 00:26:50,600
Speaker 1: but they have lost hope over the last X number

460
00:26:50,600 --> 00:26:54,280
Speaker 1: of years. Not about the pandemic, they've just lost hope

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00:26:54,359 --> 00:26:58,800
Speaker 1: in development. How do we jump start that hope within

462
00:26:58,840 --> 00:27:02,000
Speaker 1: the Greater New York's any region. Well, I think the

463
00:27:02,200 --> 00:27:05,240
Speaker 1: first step is opening Phase one and then in a

464
00:27:05,240 --> 00:27:07,919
Speaker 1: couple of weeks from now, opening Phase two. Getting our

465
00:27:07,960 --> 00:27:12,199
Speaker 1: city back and in the economy moving again, creating. Uh.

466
00:27:12,240 --> 00:27:15,720
Speaker 1: You know, the construction cranes are working, the men and

467
00:27:15,760 --> 00:27:18,280
Speaker 1: women on those sites are back into work, almost four

468
00:27:19,280 --> 00:27:22,320
Speaker 1: d people. That is a sign of hope. And and

469
00:27:22,400 --> 00:27:24,439
Speaker 1: you're right, we need to have we need to have

470
00:27:24,560 --> 00:27:27,320
Speaker 1: signs that give us guidance that things are going to

471
00:27:27,400 --> 00:27:30,399
Speaker 1: get better. Uh. You're seeing legislation, you know in New

472
00:27:30,480 --> 00:27:34,280
Speaker 1: York State yesterday. Uh in terms of of of of

473
00:27:34,400 --> 00:27:38,840
Speaker 1: changes in policing. Uh. We have to work together with

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00:27:39,040 --> 00:27:44,280
Speaker 1: communities and and create better policing policies where people feel

475
00:27:44,280 --> 00:27:48,879
Speaker 1: confident about their their police and um and we have

476
00:27:49,000 --> 00:27:53,720
Speaker 1: to create economic opportunities for for all spectrums of of

477
00:27:53,720 --> 00:27:56,840
Speaker 1: of our of of our population. And we're gonna do that,

478
00:27:56,960 --> 00:27:59,080
Speaker 1: and you're gonna see New York City be at the

479
00:27:59,119 --> 00:28:04,520
Speaker 1: forefront of job creation, dealing with issues from racial and

480
00:28:04,840 --> 00:28:09,080
Speaker 1: justice to affordable housing to education. That's what we do.

481
00:28:09,160 --> 00:28:12,480
Speaker 1: And we've come back before from from major tragic events

482
00:28:12,840 --> 00:28:16,000
Speaker 1: and we've worked together. This is an entrepreneurial spirit. You

483
00:28:16,040 --> 00:28:19,679
Speaker 1: talked about hope. We've come back before from in the

484
00:28:19,720 --> 00:28:23,119
Speaker 1: early nineties where we had nineties million feet in Lower Manhattan,

485
00:28:23,119 --> 00:28:25,960
Speaker 1: you had thirty vacancy. We came together, We converted office

486
00:28:25,960 --> 00:28:30,600
Speaker 1: buildings to residential. We we we created tax incentives for

487
00:28:30,680 --> 00:28:33,760
Speaker 1: companies to move downtown. You create Now you have seventy

488
00:28:33,800 --> 00:28:37,360
Speaker 1: thousand people living in Lower Manhattan from ten thousand, five

489
00:28:37,440 --> 00:28:41,320
Speaker 1: years ago. So there there are symbols out there. Nine eleven. Uh.

490
00:28:41,360 --> 00:28:44,760
Speaker 1: We came back after Sandy. We came back. Well, Bill,

491
00:28:44,840 --> 00:28:47,720
Speaker 1: let's talk about the hope versus the here and now.

492
00:28:47,760 --> 00:28:51,560
Speaker 1: As you own seventeen office buildings, I believe throughout the city,

493
00:28:51,880 --> 00:28:56,280
Speaker 1: what's the demand like right now for that office space? Obviously,

494
00:28:56,440 --> 00:28:59,120
Speaker 1: when the city and the country went on pause, things

495
00:28:59,120 --> 00:29:01,680
Speaker 1: slowed down. But there you know again, you know, going

496
00:29:01,720 --> 00:29:03,960
Speaker 1: back to the hope, A lease was signed two weeks

497
00:29:03,960 --> 00:29:08,640
Speaker 1: ago by TikTok in Times Square for over two feet

498
00:29:09,120 --> 00:29:12,040
Speaker 1: over a thousand people are going to move into UH

499
00:29:12,080 --> 00:29:16,160
Speaker 1: an office building on Street. That's hope. That's a sign

500
00:29:16,200 --> 00:29:20,160
Speaker 1: that things are gonna turn around. We're working on different deals.

501
00:29:20,440 --> 00:29:23,440
Speaker 1: I know a lot of my colleagues are working on things. Unfortunately,

502
00:29:23,440 --> 00:29:26,360
Speaker 1: things got you know, put on on pause. But as

503
00:29:26,400 --> 00:29:28,200
Speaker 1: soon as we start opening up to the economy, I

504
00:29:28,200 --> 00:29:33,320
Speaker 1: think you'll start seeing activity uh leasing, both commercial and residential,

505
00:29:33,440 --> 00:29:36,120
Speaker 1: and people starting to come back into the city. Bill

506
00:29:36,160 --> 00:29:38,719
Speaker 1: got to leave it there. Bill Ruden, thank you so

507
00:29:38,800 --> 00:29:42,040
Speaker 1: much for the update on the spirit of New York

508
00:29:42,120 --> 00:29:44,560
Speaker 1: City and of course with the many many properties that

509
00:29:44,600 --> 00:29:48,400
Speaker 1: he has that he's built, particularly his historic effort in

510
00:29:48,560 --> 00:29:54,280
Speaker 1: Battery Park after UH eleven William Reuten on the Spirit

511
00:29:54,400 --> 00:29:58,960
Speaker 1: of New York. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast.

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Speaker 1: Subscribe and listen to interviews on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or

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00:30:04,440 --> 00:30:09,200
Speaker 1: whichever podcast platform you prefer. I'm on Twitter at Tom Keene.

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00:30:09,680 --> 00:30:13,360
Speaker 1: Before the podcast, you can always catch US, worldwide, I'm

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00:30:13,360 --> 00:30:14,280
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio