WEBVTT - U.S Tech Earnings, Jobs Report 0:00:01.440 --> 0:00:05.320 You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live 0:00:05.400 --> 0:00:08.479 weekdays at ten am Eastern on Affle Car, playing Android 0:00:08.520 --> 0:00:11.600 otto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever 0:00:11.680 --> 0:00:15.520 you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 0:00:16.920 --> 0:00:19.200 In a couple of star wars tech names reporting last night, 0:00:20.000 --> 0:00:23.680 Amazon a good quarter. Stock up six and a half percent. 0:00:23.960 --> 0:00:26.560 It's up very close, within a couple of dollars of 0:00:26.640 --> 0:00:30.120 its all time high, and it is a fifty fifty 0:00:30.160 --> 0:00:31.880 two week high, buten just a couple of bucks away 0:00:31.880 --> 0:00:35.479 from its all time high. Meta also reported numbers stocks 0:00:35.560 --> 0:00:38.600 up twenty percent. This is a trillion dollar market cap stock. 0:00:38.640 --> 0:00:40.800 It's not like a penny stock. This is a trillion 0:00:40.800 --> 0:00:43.920 dollar market cap stock. No, and it's up twenty percent. 0:00:44.000 --> 0:00:47.040 So some real, real paper money's being made out there 0:00:47.080 --> 0:00:49.320 for some people. Let's break this stuff down. We can 0:00:49.360 --> 0:00:51.760 do it with two of our best at Bloomberg Intelligence. 0:00:51.800 --> 0:00:55.600 Put On Goile, she covers the retail business for Bloomberg Intelligence, 0:00:55.640 --> 0:00:58.160 and Men Deep Sing, supposedly a tech analyst. We'll see 0:00:58.200 --> 0:01:00.560 if he's got the goods here today. Let's start with 0:01:00.640 --> 0:01:05.920 you Amazon. It seems like the consumer is in pretty 0:01:05.959 --> 0:01:08.160 good shape. What you hear from Amazon last night. 0:01:08.920 --> 0:01:11.520 Yeah, thanks Paul. The consumer is an excellence shape and 0:01:11.520 --> 0:01:13.399 that's part of the strength that we saw on holiday. 0:01:13.480 --> 0:01:16.200 So the nine percent online sales gain that you saw 0:01:16.280 --> 0:01:19.000 come from them and twenty percent and third party was 0:01:19.040 --> 0:01:22.160 pretty impressive and actually probably the best in a few 0:01:22.240 --> 0:01:25.240 years since after the pandemic. So clearly a sign that 0:01:25.280 --> 0:01:27.959 the consumer has the funds to spend. But I'd say 0:01:27.959 --> 0:01:30.920 it also means that the consumers choosing Amazon to spend 0:01:30.959 --> 0:01:33.240 their funds there. I think that's very key, as you 0:01:33.280 --> 0:01:36.160 will see some losers still coming out of the holiday season, 0:01:36.480 --> 0:01:40.080 but online is gaining traction, and Amazon is what comes 0:01:40.080 --> 0:01:41.520 to mind when you want to shop online. 0:01:41.800 --> 0:01:43.880 So what I found to be really fascinating was like 0:01:43.880 --> 0:01:45.800 a nugget. I forgot what research report I read it in, 0:01:45.840 --> 0:01:49.600 but that the cost to serve a customer's order fell 0:01:49.640 --> 0:01:52.440 by forty five cents a unit last year. Can you 0:01:52.680 --> 0:01:54.560 how big a deal is that and how hard was 0:01:54.560 --> 0:01:55.400 it to get there? 0:01:56.320 --> 0:01:59.600 So Amazon doesn't disclose how many units they sell, so 0:01:59.600 --> 0:02:01.840 it's kind of hard to back into that. I'd say 0:02:01.880 --> 0:02:04.960 it's still a fairly small piece of the cost space. 0:02:05.160 --> 0:02:06.880 But what I would say is what's going to help 0:02:06.920 --> 0:02:09.640 them to continue to drive these costs down is just 0:02:09.720 --> 0:02:12.640 the efficiencies that they've created within their fulfillment network. 0:02:12.720 --> 0:02:12.880 Right. 0:02:13.080 --> 0:02:16.840 You've heard them talk about getting packages to customers faster, 0:02:17.680 --> 0:02:20.760 and that's really a function of how they centralized their 0:02:20.880 --> 0:02:25.359 shipping and distribution networks. And we think that traditionally, when 0:02:25.400 --> 0:02:27.480 you hear about things coming to you faster, it's usually 0:02:27.480 --> 0:02:31.040 more expensive, and in the case of Amazon, it's actually cheaper. 0:02:31.080 --> 0:02:33.640 So it's pretty impressive, and it's all driven by scale. 0:02:33.720 --> 0:02:37.000 The trucks are everywhere. I mean, it's just amazing. They 0:02:37.080 --> 0:02:39.359 gotta be the biggest trucking fleet in the country. I 0:02:39.360 --> 0:02:41.480 don't know. Let's bring in Man deep sing here. Let's 0:02:41.480 --> 0:02:45.520 get to the technology aspect of Amazon, which has really 0:02:45.520 --> 0:02:48.720 been the driver of its profitability and many would argue 0:02:48.760 --> 0:02:51.440 the stock price performance, Mandy, would you hear from Amazon 0:02:51.520 --> 0:02:54.040 last night about its cloud business AWS? 0:02:55.400 --> 0:02:58.400 I mean, look, I think when you compare it to 0:02:59.160 --> 0:03:04.040 Microsoft Azure growth, the growth is still kind of far 0:03:04.120 --> 0:03:08.639 weaker between the two. But Amazon is, you know, much 0:03:08.680 --> 0:03:11.400 higher run rate, ninety seven billion dollar run rate, so 0:03:11.800 --> 0:03:14.600 they clearly seem to be stepping up in terms of 0:03:14.639 --> 0:03:18.520 their generative AI exposure, and they've given investors hope that 0:03:18.560 --> 0:03:22.520 they will be able to catch up. But look, overall, 0:03:22.600 --> 0:03:25.600 I think profitability wise, they seem to be doing very 0:03:25.600 --> 0:03:30.040 well on the AWS front. AD business continues to work 0:03:30.200 --> 0:03:32.600 very well for them, you know, twenty six percent growth, 0:03:32.639 --> 0:03:36.520 So Amazon, I think the diversification play they have and 0:03:36.560 --> 0:03:40.200 the fact that they seem to capitalize on any new trend, 0:03:40.600 --> 0:03:43.960 you know, seemingly fast, even though in this case Microsoft 0:03:44.040 --> 0:03:47.440 Azure clearly still has the strongest momentum when it comes 0:03:47.440 --> 0:03:48.240 to generative AA. 0:03:48.560 --> 0:03:51.400 What I also found really interesting, Mandeep is that with 0:03:51.880 --> 0:03:56.640 Amazon and even Meta, they're spending more, but the market 0:03:56.640 --> 0:03:58.600 feels okay about that. I saw the same thing with 0:03:58.960 --> 0:04:01.560 Exxon too. They're spending a little bit more, but their 0:04:01.600 --> 0:04:05.200 market's okay with that. What do you make of that? 0:04:06.680 --> 0:04:09.480 I mean, look, when you know Meta is growing at 0:04:09.520 --> 0:04:13.720 over twenty percent, nobody cares about the reality lab losses. 0:04:14.680 --> 0:04:18.520 They're losing eighteen billion dollars a year on reality labs. 0:04:18.560 --> 0:04:21.200 It's okay. They get a pass the moment that growth 0:04:21.360 --> 0:04:23.880 papers And we saw that in twenty twenty two when 0:04:23.880 --> 0:04:29.000 they had those negative quarters, everyone you know, start started 0:04:29.000 --> 0:04:33.000 to complain about you know how irresponsible management was im 0:04:33.000 --> 0:04:35.720 betting on Metaverse, and yesterday there was not even a 0:04:35.760 --> 0:04:38.159 mention of Reality Labs, given you know, the beat and 0:04:38.240 --> 0:04:41.280 rays and the fact that they really seem to be 0:04:41.320 --> 0:04:44.440 executing very well with twenty five percent layoffs. So it 0:04:44.480 --> 0:04:46.840 all comes down to your top line. And if they 0:04:46.920 --> 0:04:50.200 keep executing the way they did last quarter, I think 0:04:50.440 --> 0:04:54.760 people don't mind the capex and generative AI. CAPEX actually 0:04:55.240 --> 0:04:58.599 is a trend that we're seeing across the board from hyperscalers. 0:04:58.600 --> 0:05:02.839 So what we I heard last night was Meta does 0:05:02.880 --> 0:05:05.080 have a generative AI play. It may not be on 0:05:05.120 --> 0:05:08.719 the cloud, but they are deploying their AI assistance everywhere 0:05:08.760 --> 0:05:10.599 and that seems to be helping engagement. 0:05:11.240 --> 0:05:14.279 Hey put them give us this an update on the 0:05:14.320 --> 0:05:18.280 advertising business for Amazons. I think that's a business not 0:05:18.440 --> 0:05:20.840 enough people pay attention to or it gets enough credit 0:05:21.000 --> 0:05:23.359 because there's some big numbers there it is. 0:05:23.400 --> 0:05:25.760 It's actually at a run rate of sixty billion now 0:05:25.800 --> 0:05:27.919 and we think it can get to one hundred billion 0:05:28.400 --> 0:05:31.599 by twenty twenty eight. So clearly great growth there. And 0:05:31.640 --> 0:05:33.640 what you have to remember, and when they mentioned this 0:05:33.760 --> 0:05:37.000 a little, you know, the advertising business is very lucrative 0:05:37.279 --> 0:05:40.479 it carries about fifty percent profit margins. So if you 0:05:40.520 --> 0:05:42.839 think about just the run rate they're at, that's thirty 0:05:42.839 --> 0:05:45.080 billion dollars to the bottom line in the coming year. 0:05:45.440 --> 0:05:48.640 That's huge for Amazon, and that's really the backbone of 0:05:48.640 --> 0:05:52.120 what's driving profitable growth in North America or you could 0:05:52.120 --> 0:05:53.239 say their retail business. 0:05:53.360 --> 0:05:57.279 See that that was revenue that propelled my career? Is 0:05:57.320 --> 0:06:01.279 that advertising revenue? But during the peak of microos, radio TV, 0:06:01.720 --> 0:06:04.760 cable TV, maybe in a little bit on newspapers, we. 0:06:04.760 --> 0:06:07.720 Still know the radio people. We love the radio to 0:06:07.760 --> 0:06:08.159 the radio. 0:06:08.320 --> 0:06:11.159 Now it's sixteen billion dollars going on Amazon. 0:06:11.720 --> 0:06:14.520 Amazing. Hey Mandy, before we let you guys go to 0:06:14.560 --> 0:06:17.719 your point before. If we keep getting these kind of numbers, 0:06:18.279 --> 0:06:20.400 can we still call like Meta a growth company even 0:06:20.400 --> 0:06:23.000 though it's now paying this dividend. Typically you don't see 0:06:23.000 --> 0:06:24.720 that in the growth of your company. Is like, can 0:06:24.800 --> 0:06:25.719 all things be true? 0:06:27.279 --> 0:06:30.800 I mean, advertising is a very cyclical business. Right now 0:06:30.839 --> 0:06:33.440 we are coming out of LA trough and ad pricing 0:06:33.520 --> 0:06:36.640 environment is improving, and if you're an e commerce company, 0:06:36.800 --> 0:06:39.839 there is nowhere else to go to acquire customers. Given 0:06:39.880 --> 0:06:43.080 Meta has four billion you know users across its family 0:06:43.120 --> 0:06:46.400 of apps, so clearly they get that mind share, and 0:06:46.400 --> 0:06:49.400 it's still a duopoly when it comes to digital ad spending, 0:06:49.440 --> 0:06:52.479 but I would say we are closer to saturation in 0:06:52.560 --> 0:06:55.560 terms of that digital ad growth then we were, you know, 0:06:55.560 --> 0:06:59.080 a couple of years back. So not a lot of 0:06:59.200 --> 0:07:02.200 runway in from maintaining that twenty percent plus growth, but 0:07:02.520 --> 0:07:05.679 the next few quarters I think they clearly will benefit 0:07:05.720 --> 0:07:08.440 from this at pricing tailvin A right, guys. 0:07:08.279 --> 0:07:08.680 That's good. 0:07:08.760 --> 0:07:11.400 Yeah, amazing guys, Thanks lot, really appreciated, Mandy P. Sink 0:07:11.640 --> 0:07:14.840 and Punam Goyle really great. I mean, like I was 0:07:14.880 --> 0:07:17.880 shocked when I saw those numbers, Like Apple didn't surprise 0:07:17.960 --> 0:07:19.600 me that much, but when I saw those numbers come 0:07:19.600 --> 0:07:21.560 through the terminal yesterday on the clothes, I was just 0:07:21.640 --> 0:07:22.239 totally forged. 0:07:22.320 --> 0:07:23.640 Now the thing with Apple, and we've talked to a 0:07:23.640 --> 0:07:27.200 couple experts today, including gene monsters. If I were investor 0:07:27.240 --> 0:07:29.600 in Apple, I'd still be really concerned about China. I 0:07:29.600 --> 0:07:32.000 don't feel like I don't have a call of Hey, 0:07:32.040 --> 0:07:34.000 is it just the Chinese economy kind of slowing down 0:07:34.080 --> 0:07:36.600 or is it Chinese people saying I'm not buying Western stuff. 0:07:36.880 --> 0:07:40.080 I'm by it. It's more nationalistic. Now that's a concern, 0:07:40.240 --> 0:07:44.480 although i DC the research firm says Apple's got like 0:07:44.480 --> 0:07:47.040 it's best market share ever, so I don't know how 0:07:47.040 --> 0:07:47.800 that's all playing out. 0:07:47.880 --> 0:07:50.040 So, but the competition is real no matter which we 0:07:50.160 --> 0:07:51.440 look at it, It's all about competition. 0:07:51.640 --> 0:07:51.840 Yep. 0:07:53.320 --> 0:07:57.200 You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live 0:07:57.280 --> 0:07:59.800 weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple. 0:07:59.520 --> 0:08:02.640 Car Play and and royd Otto with a Bloomberg Business app. 0:08:02.680 --> 0:08:05.520 You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 0:08:05.560 --> 0:08:12.200 flagship New York station just say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty. 0:08:11.880 --> 0:08:14.320 Big Tech Earnings. And there's some themes coming across here 0:08:14.360 --> 0:08:17.160 in terms of AI, in terms of digital advertising that 0:08:17.200 --> 0:08:19.880 are pretty well, it's pretty constructive here and we've been 0:08:19.880 --> 0:08:21.360 talking about most of the morning here. We're going to 0:08:21.400 --> 0:08:24.120 bring in Angela Zino. He's a senior equity analyst and 0:08:24.200 --> 0:08:27.920 vice president c f R Research. He joins us via 0:08:28.120 --> 0:08:30.920 Zoom from New York. Angela, I'd love to start with 0:08:31.000 --> 0:08:34.480 Apple because for me, that's the most fascinating story coming 0:08:34.480 --> 0:08:36.400 out of big tech. I just don't know which way 0:08:36.440 --> 0:08:39.480 to go, and my big big issue is China. Could 0:08:39.520 --> 0:08:42.640 you give us your sense about how you think China 0:08:42.760 --> 0:08:45.000 is as an opportunity and as a risk to the 0:08:45.000 --> 0:08:45.680 Apple story. 0:08:46.760 --> 0:08:47.719 Yeah, and I. 0:08:47.679 --> 0:08:50.599 Think Apple there's a huge Bullbard debate going on with 0:08:50.920 --> 0:08:54.960 that name right now. And when I think about Apple, yes, 0:08:55.040 --> 0:08:58.360 I mean China is absolutely an issue right now. We're talking, 0:08:58.480 --> 0:09:00.760 you know, a thirteen percent of client revenue in that 0:09:00.800 --> 0:09:04.240 region when overall you actually did see you know, a 0:09:04.280 --> 0:09:06.679 broader industry growth in the in you know, the some 0:09:06.880 --> 0:09:11.000 reporter there mid single digit decline on the constant currency 0:09:11.000 --> 0:09:13.840 basis from so from that perspective doesn't seem as bad. 0:09:14.240 --> 0:09:16.640 My guess is some of the guidance that they alluded to, 0:09:16.760 --> 0:09:18.800 even though they kind of blamed some of the tough 0:09:18.840 --> 0:09:22.160 comps from a year ago, probably also indicates that there 0:09:22.240 --> 0:09:24.240 is going to continue to be some weakness going on 0:09:24.360 --> 0:09:27.839 in China, probably through calendar twenty twenty four at the 0:09:28.000 --> 0:09:31.640 very least. So you know, it's China becomes an issue 0:09:31.679 --> 0:09:34.680 for Apple becomes ahead wind. We do expect them to 0:09:34.800 --> 0:09:38.120 continue to lose share, but there is so much good 0:09:38.200 --> 0:09:42.480 stuff going out outside of China where we think kind 0:09:42.520 --> 0:09:45.239 of the story really plays out, but specifically in Asia 0:09:45.320 --> 0:09:49.520 Asia Group seven percent outside of China, and you know, 0:09:49.720 --> 0:09:51.240 you kind of look at areas that are going to 0:09:51.240 --> 0:09:53.760 continue to attribute, you know, to that in sold base growth. 0:09:53.840 --> 0:09:56.400 It's going to be areas like in India and Indonesia 0:09:56.400 --> 0:09:57.840 over the next decade plus. 0:09:58.040 --> 0:10:00.160 So Angelo, what's it going to take for appily at 0:10:00.400 --> 0:10:02.680 for that because it feels like the straight up China 0:10:02.720 --> 0:10:05.480 competition is truly what this company is training on. 0:10:06.360 --> 0:10:08.560 Yeah, I mean, it's going to take time first. I mean, 0:10:08.640 --> 0:10:11.280 but you know, when we think about the actual numbers 0:10:11.360 --> 0:10:14.400 here in terms of you know, not the top line, 0:10:14.440 --> 0:10:16.400 but more on the bottom line side of things than 0:10:16.400 --> 0:10:18.080 on the free cash flow side of things, and that's 0:10:18.080 --> 0:10:21.200 really what drives we think the valuation is in Apple, 0:10:21.200 --> 0:10:24.200 it's that free cash flow number. Despite the lower the 0:10:24.200 --> 0:10:27.440 five billion are so less in expected revenue, the free 0:10:27.440 --> 0:10:30.439 cash flow number hasn't budget in terms of expectations here 0:10:30.520 --> 0:10:32.560 over the next year. And a big reason for that 0:10:33.320 --> 0:10:36.319 is because of all the kind of improvement they're they're 0:10:36.320 --> 0:10:38.880 doing on the margin side of things, the better mix 0:10:38.920 --> 0:10:41.400 on the services, but also the fact that margins are 0:10:41.440 --> 0:10:44.360 improving not only on the services side, but also on 0:10:44.400 --> 0:10:46.720 the product side of things. So that's really kind of 0:10:46.760 --> 0:10:51.560 helping to sustain you know, the actual free cash flow 0:10:51.640 --> 0:10:54.960 potential of this company. So you know, you have to 0:10:54.960 --> 0:10:56.960 be patient if you're an investor in this name and 0:10:57.040 --> 0:11:00.679 kind of believe in the whole compounding effect over time. 0:11:00.760 --> 0:11:04.600 But right now, it's tough to really kind of expect 0:11:04.679 --> 0:11:07.160 significant gains from a stock price perspective here over the 0:11:07.200 --> 0:11:08.080 next three to six months. 0:11:08.120 --> 0:11:10.080 All right, Well, talk about significant games from the stock 0:11:10.120 --> 0:11:14.439 price perspective. Meta platforms up twenty percent today, all time high. 0:11:14.840 --> 0:11:17.480 Over two hundred billion dollars of market cap was created 0:11:17.679 --> 0:11:21.920 just today in trading. So an end. They're paying a dividend. 0:11:21.960 --> 0:11:23.920 They they've been listening to me. Now the folks at 0:11:23.920 --> 0:11:26.120 Apple need to listen to me and up their dividend 0:11:26.160 --> 0:11:29.160 and give me a good three percent dividend yield. Talk 0:11:29.200 --> 0:11:32.480 to us about Meta here. Boy, it seems like everything's 0:11:32.559 --> 0:11:34.680 working there. What's your key takeaway? 0:11:35.960 --> 0:11:38.520 Yeah, I think this is as good a quarter as 0:11:38.880 --> 0:11:41.319 an investor could have asked for. I mean, you're right 0:11:41.320 --> 0:11:44.280 they initiated the dividend, but you know it implies less 0:11:44.280 --> 0:11:46.520 than a one percent divit in yield, right. I think 0:11:46.520 --> 0:11:48.920 it's more kind of you know the fact that they're 0:11:49.520 --> 0:11:52.680 just demonstrating to investors out they're the conviction they have 0:11:52.800 --> 0:11:55.079 in that business and kind of some of the guidance 0:11:55.080 --> 0:11:58.320 that they provided out there. But listen, I think they're 0:11:58.360 --> 0:12:00.680 running on all cylinders. Grew the top one twenty five 0:12:00.679 --> 0:12:04.079 percent actually to one guide points to an acceleration of 0:12:04.080 --> 0:12:06.800 growth where we actually expected growth to start to decelerate 0:12:06.840 --> 0:12:10.080 sharply in the first half of twenty twenty five four. 0:12:10.880 --> 0:12:13.000 You kind of look at how they're doing this. They're 0:12:13.040 --> 0:12:17.160 actually keeping operating expenses in check. And there's nothing you 0:12:17.160 --> 0:12:19.600 know better that Wall Street lights than kind of keeping 0:12:19.600 --> 0:12:23.160 the opex numbers in check in a world where AI 0:12:23.320 --> 0:12:27.360 is extremely expensive, and they continue to grow that top 0:12:27.440 --> 0:12:30.280 line by holding it, you know, by keeping it unchanged. 0:12:30.320 --> 0:12:32.920 So I think, you know, that's really the key as 0:12:33.000 --> 0:12:35.440 far as the metastory is concerned, and you really do 0:12:35.520 --> 0:12:37.840 have to love it if you're an investor. 0:12:38.600 --> 0:12:40.880 I mean, Paul does. He's he's been talking about it 0:12:40.920 --> 0:12:44.240 pretty much all day. But the idea that like the 0:12:44.760 --> 0:12:48.439 year of Efficiency of twenty twenty three will continue despite 0:12:48.600 --> 0:12:51.440 the information we got on Reality Labs in terms of 0:12:51.440 --> 0:12:53.440 how much they're losing and the capex going into it. 0:12:53.480 --> 0:12:55.679 When do I care about that when it comes to Meta. 0:12:56.880 --> 0:12:59.839 As far as you know, losses and reality labs and 0:12:59.880 --> 0:13:03.199 the potential revenue trajectory there, I mean yeah, I mean, 0:13:03.960 --> 0:13:05.640 this is a long term vision for the company, so 0:13:05.679 --> 0:13:08.160 they're looking for they're making these investments for five ten 0:13:08.240 --> 0:13:10.240 years out from now. You're not going to get the 0:13:10.320 --> 0:13:13.920 immediate type of return that you're seeing on the AI 0:13:14.040 --> 0:13:16.439 side of things. I mean, AI has been absolutely phenomenal 0:13:16.480 --> 0:13:20.959 for Meta because it's a parent that advertisers are willing 0:13:21.000 --> 0:13:23.319 to kind of pay up for it because you're you're 0:13:23.320 --> 0:13:26.720 getting a higher ROI out there, so you know, it 0:13:26.800 --> 0:13:28.680 makes a lot of sense. You're you're seeing the you know, 0:13:29.600 --> 0:13:32.679 most of the kind of the the extra CAPEC spends 0:13:33.160 --> 0:13:36.120 that's going into this company really on the AI side 0:13:36.120 --> 0:13:38.640 of things. But as far as those losses are concerned, 0:13:38.720 --> 0:13:40.600 that's going to that's going to remain because you're not 0:13:40.600 --> 0:13:43.800 going to see that revenue trajectory really kind of play 0:13:43.800 --> 0:13:46.000 out for at least kind of another three to five 0:13:46.080 --> 0:13:49.319 years at your you know, in the basic past case scenario, So. 0:13:49.320 --> 0:13:52.200 Angela, if investors are trafficking in the metas of the world, 0:13:52.240 --> 0:13:55.040 the Google's, even Amazon, they have to have a call 0:13:55.120 --> 0:13:58.760 on digital advertising? What's your call on digital advertising? 0:13:59.320 --> 0:14:01.560 So entering the year it was it was a high 0:14:01.559 --> 0:14:04.679 single digit growth rate, so you know, it's pretty much 0:14:04.760 --> 0:14:06.440 going to be a similar growth rate that we saw 0:14:06.480 --> 0:14:08.720 in twenty twenty three, and our outlook for twenty twenty 0:14:08.720 --> 0:14:11.160 five also kind of a high single digit growth pace. 0:14:11.200 --> 0:14:13.520 I think how you're going to get that growth pace 0:14:13.600 --> 0:14:15.679 is going to be interesting. I mean, it looks like 0:14:16.400 --> 0:14:18.640 on the social media side of things, you're seeing some 0:14:18.720 --> 0:14:22.160 additional share gain taking place there relative to what you're 0:14:22.160 --> 0:14:25.120 seeing on the search side. I think although alphabet you know, 0:14:25.360 --> 0:14:27.920 to be fair, did not provide any type of guidance 0:14:28.080 --> 0:14:31.280 on their end, but it just appears like that momentum 0:14:31.280 --> 0:14:34.360 continues to really be taking form on the social media 0:14:34.360 --> 0:14:37.280 side of things. We'll get some additional numbers next week 0:14:37.320 --> 0:14:39.880 when the snaps and pinterests of the world start reporting, 0:14:40.080 --> 0:14:42.640 but there are much smaller player in the industry. But 0:14:42.640 --> 0:14:44.560 I think at the end of the day, the numbers 0:14:44.600 --> 0:14:47.240 look pretty good for us. There's probably upside to those 0:14:47.240 --> 0:14:49.960 assumptions that I've provided to you because of some of 0:14:50.000 --> 0:14:51.840 that AI play and the fact that you're going to 0:14:51.880 --> 0:14:55.120 see an acceleration. You know, away from those traditional sources 0:14:55.600 --> 0:14:57.400 to more of the digital side of things. 0:14:57.640 --> 0:14:59.800 Hey, Angelo, taking a look at just the run that 0:14:59.840 --> 0:15:01.880 we seen with some of these guys on some of 0:15:01.920 --> 0:15:05.000 the numbers, even in Vidia at another record high today, 0:15:05.600 --> 0:15:08.000 What stock is most over their skis right now? 0:15:10.000 --> 0:15:13.560 That's a great question. That No, that's that's that's a 0:15:13.600 --> 0:15:16.240 really good question. You know, as far as you know 0:15:16.480 --> 0:15:19.480 we're concerned. I say the names we like the most, 0:15:19.520 --> 0:15:23.520 the ones where there were absolute table pounders on our 0:15:23.640 --> 0:15:27.400 Microsoft and Nvidia. I think those names on any type 0:15:27.400 --> 0:15:29.800 of pullback, you just continue to load up and buy 0:15:29.880 --> 0:15:32.280 more of it. You have to love kind of the 0:15:32.320 --> 0:15:34.840 meta results here. But if there were a name I 0:15:34.880 --> 0:15:37.320 were to throw out there right now, it would probably 0:15:37.400 --> 0:15:40.120 be meta one because of the type of move that 0:15:40.160 --> 0:15:42.040 you've seen in the in the in the stock today. 0:15:43.160 --> 0:15:45.400 I'd also say that the comps do get a little 0:15:45.440 --> 0:15:47.720 bit more difficult in the second half of this year, 0:15:47.960 --> 0:15:50.920 So there could be a scenario where as those comps 0:15:50.960 --> 0:15:53.600 get a little bit more challenging and they need to 0:15:53.840 --> 0:15:57.040 you know, potentially you know, spend a little bit more, 0:15:57.560 --> 0:16:00.640 that could kind of set up some potential disppointment later 0:16:00.720 --> 0:16:03.120 this year for the thought. So that's probably the name 0:16:03.440 --> 0:16:05.480 where maybe I would raise a little bit of an 0:16:05.480 --> 0:16:08.120 eyebrow among kind of the you know, the mags have 0:16:08.200 --> 0:16:08.960 a names right now. 0:16:09.240 --> 0:16:12.480 Hey, Angela, thanks a lot, super appreciate it. Angelousio, Vice President, 0:16:12.520 --> 0:16:15.240 Senior equity analyst at cfr A Research. 0:16:16.680 --> 0:16:20.560 You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live 0:16:20.640 --> 0:16:23.720 weekdays at ten am Eastern on fo card playing Android 0:16:23.760 --> 0:16:26.840 outo with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever 0:16:26.920 --> 0:16:30.760 you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 0:16:31.720 --> 0:16:35.920 That'd be very, very encouraged by the strong labor numbers 0:16:35.920 --> 0:16:38.760 I got out today in terms of giftness, economy growing. 0:16:38.920 --> 0:16:40.400 Yeah, but I still think that the idea of like 0:16:40.440 --> 0:16:43.400 people still feel bad and then the number is still 0:16:43.440 --> 0:16:46.440 good and bridging that gap and how that winds up 0:16:46.440 --> 0:16:48.480 playing out. We're still really early in twenty twenty four, 0:16:48.480 --> 0:16:50.440 but how that plays out I think really interesting. 0:16:50.680 --> 0:16:53.160 Yeah, I guess that's a messaging story for you know, 0:16:53.240 --> 0:16:56.640 the politicians out there. You know, you got a GDP 0:16:56.760 --> 0:16:59.280 print better than expected. Everybody kind of has a job, 0:16:59.320 --> 0:17:01.240 wages are going up, inflations coming down. 0:17:01.840 --> 0:17:03.680 But man, but then you have to wonder, does that 0:17:03.720 --> 0:17:05.159 mean that we were going to wind up seeing the 0:17:05.200 --> 0:17:07.680 FED not cut in May, and then does that keep 0:17:07.720 --> 0:17:10.400 conditions tighter? And then you have real rates actually increasing, 0:17:10.400 --> 0:17:11.960 et cetera, et cetera, and then it actually does wind 0:17:12.040 --> 0:17:14.119 up hurting later sort of the longer you push it off, 0:17:14.600 --> 0:17:17.000 then are we headed for something a lot harder. 0:17:17.080 --> 0:17:18.600 Yeah, that's a great point, and that's kind of the 0:17:18.600 --> 0:17:21.240 discussion now. I guess it's all about May. Jonny Biley 0:17:21.320 --> 0:17:24.960 joins us. She's a chief workforce analyst at inmploy Bridge 0:17:25.160 --> 0:17:28.479 joins us on zoom from Pompino Beach, Florida. 0:17:28.560 --> 0:17:29.000 What is it? 0:17:29.040 --> 0:17:30.000 What are we doing wrong here? 0:17:30.240 --> 0:17:31.800 I don't want to be in Florida. 0:17:32.040 --> 0:17:33.680 Be in Florida right now because it's been we haven't 0:17:33.680 --> 0:17:36.440 seen the sun in like two weeks, that's true. 0:17:36.480 --> 0:17:39.440 I don't know I was in Florence. So if we're 0:17:39.480 --> 0:17:40.960 reassigning bet. 0:17:44.280 --> 0:17:46.560 Well, pretty Jony, thanks so much for joining us here. 0:17:46.840 --> 0:17:48.359 I'd love to get your thoughts here and kind of 0:17:48.400 --> 0:17:51.120 what we saw on this job's uh date data print 0:17:51.160 --> 0:17:52.600 this morning? How do you how do you kind of 0:17:52.720 --> 0:17:53.639 deal with it? 0:17:54.280 --> 0:17:58.080 Well, definitely a big surprise right this morning, and I 0:17:58.080 --> 0:18:01.920 don't think anyone predicted numbers that would be that high. 0:18:01.920 --> 0:18:04.000 I think maybe Goldman Sachs said it was going to 0:18:04.000 --> 0:18:07.520 be about two hundred and fifty thousand, but never expected 0:18:07.640 --> 0:18:11.480 over three hundred and fifty thousand jobs created. And the 0:18:11.560 --> 0:18:15.359 reason I think it really is a surprise is we 0:18:15.640 --> 0:18:18.120 are still you know, seeing. 0:18:17.960 --> 0:18:20.960 Layoffs, you know, not just in the big tech. 0:18:20.720 --> 0:18:25.480 Companies, but we're seeing more and more employers that are 0:18:25.880 --> 0:18:26.919 you know, cutting back. 0:18:27.119 --> 0:18:29.280 Now, there is some optimism about. 0:18:29.000 --> 0:18:32.719 Twenty twenty four. Certainly the companies that we work with 0:18:32.760 --> 0:18:37.280 at employee Bridge, I would say our hiring managers are 0:18:37.320 --> 0:18:41.119 cautiously optimistic and they are saying that they are predicting, 0:18:41.600 --> 0:18:45.440 you know, a better year of growth of job growth 0:18:45.440 --> 0:18:49.400 in twenty twenty four than twenty twenty three, but we're 0:18:49.480 --> 0:18:54.920 not seeing the robust growth that this report actually shows. 0:18:55.200 --> 0:18:58.320 Well, let's talk about the one thing that confused me 0:18:58.359 --> 0:19:01.520 the most in the report, and that average hourly work 0:19:01.520 --> 0:19:04.560 week goes down, which basically means maybe there's a demand problem, 0:19:04.600 --> 0:19:07.480 but wages go up. What does that mean? 0:19:09.000 --> 0:19:11.000 Yeah, I was surprised by that number as well. 0:19:11.080 --> 0:19:14.800 So we are seeing people working a little bit less. 0:19:14.880 --> 0:19:19.520 The hours you know worked per week did decline, and 0:19:19.600 --> 0:19:23.640 to your point seeing wages go up so substantially. That 0:19:23.800 --> 0:19:25.960 was a surprise as well. We're not seeing as much 0:19:26.080 --> 0:19:31.200 wage movement. We track wage data as well. Employ Bridge 0:19:31.240 --> 0:19:38.359 focuses primarily on the supply chain sector, so manufacturing, construction, drivers, transportation, 0:19:38.760 --> 0:19:42.159 and I'll tell you wages have been pretty pretty flat. 0:19:42.440 --> 0:19:45.600 But when we see hours go down, it is the demand. 0:19:45.720 --> 0:19:49.240 You know, the employers are not demanding right that workers 0:19:50.359 --> 0:19:54.480