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Speaker 1: This is the Action Network podcast. Is good?

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Speaker 2: All right?

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Speaker 3: Here we go.

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Speaker 1: Throwing him job. So I'm saying up to catch.

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Speaker 4: We'll see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 4: go to wind. That's incredible.

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Speaker 3: Big bank, small bank.

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Speaker 1: I like to make money.

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Speaker 3: All right.

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Speaker 4: This is the Ultimate Kabai.

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Speaker 1: And we are Conderway.

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Speaker 2: And welcome to another edition of the Action Networks Fantasy

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Speaker 2: Flex Podcast. I'm your host, Chris Raybond here with Sean

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Speaker 2: Kerner and a very very special guest, really excited to

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Speaker 2: have him on. It is Evan Silva, the co founder

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Speaker 2: of Established a Run. We are going to talk quarterbacks today. Evan,

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Speaker 2: how you doing man? Thanks for joining us.

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Speaker 3: Hey, I'm doing well. I'm doing well. The season is

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Speaker 3: upon us. I've been listening to your guys shows religiously.

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Speaker 3: You guys are crushing it. It's going to talk some

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Speaker 3: ball with you.

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Speaker 2: We're not even going to delay. We're just going to

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Speaker 2: get right into it. So Evan, I just want to

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Speaker 2: start with you. We're going to go through the top

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Speaker 2: twelve quarterbacks by ADP and go through each one. But

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Speaker 2: before we do that, I just want to know, like,

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Speaker 2: what's your overall quarterback strategy as you kind of enter

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Speaker 2: a fantasy draft. Are you a late round guy? Are

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Speaker 2: there any exceptions? Do you change it up for league

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Speaker 2: type or anything like that?

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Speaker 3: Absolutely, change it up for league type. And that's you know,

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Speaker 3: I think it's kind of stale, and it's not a

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Speaker 3: sexy thing to say, But knowing the format and the

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Speaker 3: rules and the scoring system better than your opponent in

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Speaker 3: the league in which you're about to draft and play

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Speaker 3: and run waivers and all that, that really is the

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Speaker 3: biggest advantage that you can carve out in fantasy football.

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Speaker 3: But in general, and I think that my approach to

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Speaker 3: the quarterback position has sort of progressed over the years,

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Speaker 3: and especially last year, spurred by what a difference it

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Speaker 3: was to have Kyler Murray or Josh Allen or you know,

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Speaker 3: one of the big time quarterbacks in your in your

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Speaker 3: starting position in DFS. It made me think that maybe

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Speaker 3: we need to start transitioning away from the traditional late

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Speaker 3: round quarterback strategy and into one where we're a little

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Speaker 3: bit more aggressive taking quarterbacks that we think they can

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Speaker 3: have those true difference maker years in the middle rounds.

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Speaker 3: I don't know if this is necessarily right and if

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Speaker 3: it's a long term thing and it's something that's going

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Speaker 3: to stick. But it's definitely something that I've considered. And

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Speaker 3: especially if I, like, let's say my first round pick

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Speaker 3: is Tyreek Hill, I'm going to be a lot more

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Speaker 3: likely to reach a little bit for Patrick Mahomes, you

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Speaker 3: know in the third or or ideally fourth round. Mark

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Speaker 3: Andrews say, I take him, you know, in a tight

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Speaker 3: end premium league in the third round, which I did.

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Speaker 3: I took him in pros versus Joe's Last Night, came

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Speaker 3: back out Lamar Jackson in the fifth round. Felt really

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Speaker 3: good about that. So that is, you know, one element

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Speaker 3: of quarterback strategy, right, think that I've changed in recent

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Speaker 3: years a lot caused, you know, playing daily fantasy. And

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Speaker 3: another one is just that these quarterbacks that can run

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Speaker 3: have really changed the game. And I know, Rayvon and Sean,

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Speaker 3: you guys have really beaten the drum for this and

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Speaker 3: you've been one hundred percent correct. The quarterbacks that can

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Speaker 3: run for a really long time. The late round quarterback

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Speaker 3: strategy was so successful because there just wasn't that big

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Speaker 3: of a difference between quarterback seven and quarterback fifteen, at

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Speaker 3: least on a weekly basis. I mean, they might be

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Speaker 3: separated by one point five points, you know. But now

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Speaker 3: the quarterbacks that can run, and of course Patrick Mahomes,

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Speaker 3: who can run, but he's not, you know, as deadly

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Speaker 3: with his legs as some of the other guys, but

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Speaker 3: I mean he can pass it such an elite and

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Speaker 3: efficient clip and he's surrounded by such big time playmakers

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Speaker 3: that he can absolutely score like these guys. And we've

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Speaker 3: seen that consistently. Those guys now have kind of evolved

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Speaker 3: into their own tier and it's almost become an early

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Speaker 3: round tier. And Dak Prescott can absolutely score like that,

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Speaker 3: and Murray, Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, and Lamar Jackson. So

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Speaker 3: that's been sort of the evolution of my thinking at quarterback. Yeah.

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Speaker 2: No, that's a great point in Sean, what do you

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Speaker 2: think of kind of the point of like, it's not

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Speaker 2: really late round quarterback anymore, it's kind of middle round quarterback.

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Speaker 1: Now, what are your thoughts on Nashan?

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Speaker 5: Yeah, yeah, great points by Evan. As always, I think

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Speaker 5: right now, you know the top six quarterbacks we can

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Speaker 5: We're going to go in depth on all six, but

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Speaker 5: they all have QB one upside, every single one of them.

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Speaker 5: So I'm just more of a passive, like, if any

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Speaker 5: one of those six fall to me at a good

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Speaker 5: point in the draft, I'm all for it. Falling back

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Speaker 5: on just beginning the season streaming quarterback is a decent strategy.

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Speaker 5: I mean, I've been able to stream QB six to

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Speaker 5: QB ten numbers the past few seasons, and you know

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Speaker 5: you're not going to be just streaming you know, Carson Wentz,

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Speaker 5: Kirk Cousins all season. Like last year, I ended up

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Speaker 5: with Justin Herbert in a few leagues that I didn't

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Speaker 5: even draft a quarterback, and in a couple I ended

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Speaker 5: up with Jalen Hurts towards the end of the season.

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Speaker 4: So it's like you can stumble.

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Speaker 5: On a jackpot like that even if you're streaming, so

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Speaker 5: we can go dive into a little bit later. So

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Speaker 5: I think in the QB ten to fifteen rage, I'm

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Speaker 5: a little bit cautious reaching for those guys when you

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Speaker 5: know they're kind of a diamond dozen end season, you

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Speaker 5: just play matchups. But I'm all for, you know, aggressively

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Speaker 5: trying to get at least one of these top six qbs.

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Speaker 2: The great point is that both of you guys are

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Speaker 2: making is it's kind of the value has kind of

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Speaker 2: transitioned a little more to where you can get a

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Speaker 2: top six guy that may fall. I think, you know,

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Speaker 2: the issue with going full long, late round quarterback kind

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Speaker 2: of the both the benefit and the you know, the

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Speaker 2: thing that could hurt you is that you could either end.

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Speaker 1: Up streaming for longer than you want, you may not

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Speaker 1: find that guy.

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Speaker 2: But the benefit is that we don't know exactly which

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Speaker 2: one of these guys will kind of pop off in

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Speaker 2: those middle rounds necessarily. Evan, I know you had some

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Speaker 2: ideas last year because I remember you were on that.

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Speaker 2: If I'm not mistaken, like the Josh Allen MVP train, Yeah.

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Speaker 3: And I mean he you know, where do you end

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Speaker 3: up going about? Like maybe like the ninth tenth turn,

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Speaker 3: I would say, yeah. And the whole Bills offense was

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Speaker 3: undervalued beginning with him. Stefan Diggs was like the wide

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Speaker 3: receiver twenty seven and ADP. I didn't have Steve Stephon

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Speaker 3: Diggs nearly high enough. Last year. Cole Beasley had an

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Speaker 3: awesome season. You know, I just recently, I don't want

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Speaker 3: to jump ahead too much, but I just recently bumped

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Speaker 3: Josh Allen to my number one overall quarterback for this year,

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Speaker 3: and it's based on just immense continue They're bringing back everyone.

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Speaker 3: The only guy they lost is John Brown and they

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Speaker 3: replaced him with Manny Sanders, Gabriel Davis. I think the

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Speaker 3: arrow was pointing up on him. They're running it back.

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Speaker 3: It's crazy that the NFL let Brian Dable go back

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Speaker 3: to the Bills to be their offensive coordinator. This guy,

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Speaker 3: you know, would be a better head coach by than

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Speaker 3: than ten coaches across the league, at least based on

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Speaker 3: what he has done strategically from an offensive standpoint.

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Speaker 1: That's a really interesting point.

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Speaker 2: And we're going to go kind of buy adp here

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Speaker 2: the consensus ADP at Fantasy pros for quarterbacks. So Patrick

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Speaker 2: Mahome still is that number one consensus quarterback at ESPN,

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Speaker 2: at Yahoo, at CBS, at fan Tracks, at the FFC,

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Speaker 2: so pretty much across.

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Speaker 1: The board, Mahomes is number one.

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Speaker 2: So we'll get to Allen in a moment, Silva, But

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Speaker 2: I guess kind of more so make the point of

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Speaker 2: what enabled you to kind of bump Mahomes down, because

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Speaker 2: I think that's what a lot of people have trouble with.

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Speaker 2: It's not that I think everyone kind of realizes that

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Speaker 2: Allen has the same upside. But what did you kind

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Speaker 2: of see to kind of bump some anybody ahead of

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Speaker 2: Patrick Mahomes.

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Speaker 3: Well, I've been juggling these guys in the top tier,

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Speaker 3: and I don't have Dak in the top tier right now,

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Speaker 3: and that's purely based on his injury recovery. But I

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Speaker 3: had the top four as Josh Allen one, Lamar Jackson two,

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Speaker 3: Mahomes three, and then Kyler Murray four. But then if

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Speaker 3: you look at my overall rankings, they're all right next

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Speaker 3: to each other. And I mean I've changed them already

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Speaker 3: a couple of times, and I'll probably change them a

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Speaker 3: couple more times. I just think they're really hard to

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Speaker 3: pick from. And ultimately, what you what you want to

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Speaker 3: do if you're going to draft on these guys, you

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Speaker 3: let the early rounds dictate whether you will. And again,

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Speaker 3: you know, coming back to a stack, stack opportunities, especially

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Speaker 3: in the in the you know, in in higher stakes tournaments,

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Speaker 3: it's really easy to stack right now, Mark andrews Lamar

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Speaker 3: Jackson and Marquise Brown or Rashad Bateman or maybe even

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Speaker 3: a low Gus Edwards late. You know, it's really easy

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Speaker 3: to to pull that off. I think it's pretty easy

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Speaker 3: to stack. Like DeAndre Hopkins and Kyler Murray. People seem

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Speaker 3: to be not high enough. I think on DeAndre Hopkins

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Speaker 3: this year, to me, he's a first round pick and

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Speaker 3: his ADP is more in like the sixteen to twenty

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Speaker 3: overall range. But letting those early rounds dictate, uh, you

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Speaker 3: know where I'm gonna go with my quarterback pick. That's

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Speaker 3: what I'm personally gonna do in terms of my my

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Speaker 3: actual rankings that I have to put into cement. You know,

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Speaker 3: the I'm juggling these guys around. Where are you guys

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Speaker 3: at with these guys?

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Speaker 2: Don I want you? I let you jump in on

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Speaker 2: on the homes who averaged it? You know, three hundred

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Speaker 2: sixteen yards last year, three zh eight for his career.

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Speaker 2: If he's still your number one overall QB.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, he's still my number one overall QB. And you

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Speaker 5: know he's going to be extra motivated after that just

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Speaker 5: humiliating Super Bowl lost. He's even said that he wants

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Speaker 5: to go twenty and oh or twenty one to know

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Speaker 5: however many games it takes now to.

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Speaker 4: A perfect season. So I don't want to bet against

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Speaker 4: them necessarily.

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Speaker 5: And you know now that we have seventeen games, I mean,

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Speaker 5: the chance of him having a record breaking season seems

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Speaker 5: pretty high. I mean, this is going to be another

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Speaker 5: season where he has Tyreet Kill and Travis Kelcey, so

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Speaker 5: you know, I don't want to bet against them. Having

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Speaker 5: said all that, I'm probably not drafting him number one because,

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Speaker 5: like I said earlier, I kind of want the draft

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Speaker 5: someone else to set the tone in the draft as to.

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Speaker 4: Win we start to make this run at QB.

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Speaker 5: You know, I can't disagree too much with Evan, Like,

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Speaker 5: if anybody takes Josh Allen the first QB, it's hard

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Speaker 5: to argue with that. So I typically let just somebody

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Speaker 5: else draft Patrick Mahomes and then whichever QB false in

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Speaker 5: the after that. Having said that, though, like I do

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Speaker 5: want to invest in this offense, so I think the

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Speaker 5: better thing to do is invest in Terry Kill or

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Speaker 5: Travis Kelsey or Clyde Edwards Hilaire. Like, I do not

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Speaker 5: want to fague this offense at all, but when it

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Speaker 5: comes to the QB position specifically, I think it's better

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Speaker 5: just to let somebody else take him early.

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Speaker 4: But we definitely want to invest in this offense.

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Speaker 3: One thing that you'll notice, I think with regard to

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Speaker 3: Patrick Mahomes as it relates to the other quarterbacks in

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Speaker 3: this theoretical first tier, is that his ADP is like

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Speaker 3: measurably higher than the other guys. I mean, he's if

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Speaker 3: you look at Football guys Championship ADP, Patrick Mahomes about

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Speaker 3: a round. He's going about a round earlier than any

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Speaker 3: of these guys start to get drafted. So I think

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Speaker 3: there there's definitely a lot of confidence and you know,

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Speaker 3: justifiably so, but a lot of confidence from the community

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Speaker 3: in Patrick Mahomes that he has an edge on the

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Speaker 3: other three guys. I'm not so sure of that, but

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Speaker 3: I mean, I mean, I don't say negative things about

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Speaker 3: Patrick Mahomes.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't think there's anything negative to say about Mahomes.

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Speaker 2: I think it's to your point, Evan, he's going around

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Speaker 2: earlier than Josh Allen and just all these quarterbacks in general,

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Speaker 2: Like the first couple, there's like a round you know

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Speaker 2: that round six picks nine to ten picks between these guys,

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Speaker 2: and so there's a lot of margin for error where

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Speaker 2: if you're just waiting, you know, to your point, more

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Speaker 2: so to like that the middle round to be aggressive,

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Speaker 2: even if it's not like a true rate late.

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Speaker 1: Round quarterback strategy.

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Speaker 2: You're just waiting until you know that QB five six

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Speaker 2: seven whoever falls as Sean you mentioned, you know, that's

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Speaker 2: where you're really getting the value, because that's what we're

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Speaker 2: trying to get because like, if you're wrong on Mahomes,

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Speaker 2: And by wrong, I don't mean that like he's suddenly

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Speaker 2: going to be like even an average or above average pass.

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Speaker 1: He's still going to be elite almost no matter what.

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Speaker 2: But if you're wrong, because let's say he misses four

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Speaker 2: games or something like that and then takes another one

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Speaker 2: off in week eight, you know, in week eighteen or

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Speaker 2: you know that that can really hurt you. Well maybe

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Speaker 2: not the week eighteen because that that would be not

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Speaker 2: a fancy, but you know what I mean, like, if

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Speaker 2: he misses games, that could really hurt you because you know,

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Speaker 2: you could have waited another twelve picks and got a

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Speaker 2: Josh Howen. You could have waited another you know, thirty

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Speaker 2: six picks or forty eight and still got like a

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Speaker 2: Russell Wilson or somebody like that. So yah, yeah, that's

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Speaker 2: where I think I am with my Homes. I still

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Speaker 2: have them ranked number one. Evan, I'm not I'm not

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Speaker 2: going to put him under other guys, but I certainly

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Speaker 2: understand your strategy and to why you would kind of

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Speaker 2: target somebody like Allen or Jackson Moore because you can

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Speaker 2: stack with them. So let's talk about Alan Evan because

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Speaker 2: I really want to get your take on just what

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Speaker 2: you see in Allen to have them ranked as the

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Speaker 2: QB one. Just kind of walk us through why he's

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Speaker 2: the safest highest up side picks.

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Speaker 3: For you right now. Yeah, it's the It's absolutely the continuity,

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Speaker 3: which is something that I think is absolutely worth betting

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Speaker 3: on the way that the Bills play. They were number

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Speaker 3: one in past percentage when you in neutral situations last year,

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Speaker 3: in both the first half and across the full game.

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Speaker 3: You know, they pass to win. They use their running

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Speaker 3: game as a change of pace. They use a ton

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Speaker 3: of play action, which has proved to be almost like

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Speaker 3: a cheat code in the NFL. They've got I mean,

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Speaker 3: they are willing to play a true spread offense and

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Speaker 3: they've got the depth at receiver to do it. And

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Speaker 3: if you look at Josh Allen, who came into the league,

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Speaker 3: you know, very polarizing prospect. I would say not even

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Speaker 3: a particularly high percentage prospect coming out of Wyoming. I mean,

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Speaker 3: you go back to Wyoming, they built that offense around

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Speaker 3: Brian Hill. You know, Brian Hill, who's bounced around to

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Speaker 3: the Falcons. I think he's with Carolina now, and they

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Speaker 3: didn't really even utilize Josh Allen as the focal point

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Speaker 3: of that offense in college. He arrives in the NFL

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Speaker 3: as a tremendously raw player. He you know, he absolutely

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Speaker 3: had major accuracy concerns, but every year he's taken a

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Speaker 3: remarkable step forward, and I mean, at some point he's

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Speaker 3: going to reach his ceiling. But man, I I'm not

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Speaker 3: sure that he's reached the ceiling yet. And he is

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Speaker 3: a dominant runner. I mean, there's no question in my

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Speaker 3: mind that Sean McDermott and Brandon Bean, you know, the

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Speaker 3: Bill's decision makers who were both in Carolina with Cam Newton,

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Speaker 3: saw Cam Newton in Josh Allen and we I mean,

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Speaker 3: at this point, I think the trajectory is that Josh

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Speaker 3: Allen could even have a better career than Cam Newton.

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Speaker 3: So just so many things working in Josh Allen's favor,

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Speaker 3: from the dual threat dominance to you know, the supporting

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Speaker 3: cast to the environment. I think it's a great organization

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Speaker 3: to bet on. I love Josh Allen as the highest

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Speaker 3: floor and highest upside quarterback on the board this year.

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Speaker 2: Joan, you and Evan were kind of going at it

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Speaker 2: last year on the same Very podcast about Josh Allen

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Speaker 2: after four four and forty four y'all heards and thirty

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Speaker 2: seven passing touchdowns. I'm guessing you've come around. The question

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Speaker 2: is just like how much, like how close? How much

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Speaker 2: can you see him replicating what he did last year?

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Speaker 5: Jean, Yeah, So kudos to Evan on that call last year.

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Speaker 5: I am making up for it by not projecting any

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Speaker 5: aggression in his rushing stats. I'm not worried about Zach Moss,

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Speaker 5: like that's all gone. So I'm not penciling him in

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Speaker 5: for seven eight rushing touchdowns. I'm sharpening him in. I'm

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Speaker 5: just not even messing with that. So, you know, I

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Speaker 5: agree with Evan where you know there is some concern

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Speaker 5: he could regress this year. You know, last year he

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Speaker 5: had the fourth best completion percentage, but his catchwall ball

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Speaker 5: percentage was twenty second and a lot of that you

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Speaker 5: can give credit to the high quality wide receivers that

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Speaker 5: he has, so that's where the continuity comes into play.

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Speaker 5: He still has Stefan Diggs, he still has Cole Beasley,

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Speaker 5: Gabe Davis is going to be even better in hear two.

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Speaker 5: And you know, Manny Sanders is equal as John Brown,

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Speaker 5: so you know he he retains a lot of that

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Speaker 5: talent he had around him last year. Brian Dable remaining

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Speaker 5: oc is huge. I think it's a credit to their

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Speaker 5: their playoff ront last year. They went so deep that

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Speaker 5: he wasn't able to take a job elsewhere. All the

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Speaker 5: coaching vacancies sort of filled up when they're still in

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Speaker 5: the playoffs, so that that kind of helped out Josh Allen.

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Speaker 4: For this year.

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Speaker 5: But Dable, you know, he cranked up the play action passing.

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Speaker 5: Josh Allen had the most play action dropbacks last year.

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Speaker 5: That was a huge part of his success. You know,

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Speaker 5: back in twenty nineteen he only ranked twenty first. So

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Speaker 5: I think we're going to see a time of that

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Speaker 5: play action, a lot of for wide receiver sets. So

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Speaker 5: a lot of the things are in place where I

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Speaker 5: think even if Josh Allen se'es some mini regression, he's

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Speaker 5: still a top two quarterback. So I think, you know

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Speaker 5: he's he's in the elite tier with Patrick Mahomes. I

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Speaker 5: have them ranked very close together.

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Speaker 2: All right, let's go to the number three quarterback now,

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Speaker 2: Kyler Murray, Evan. Kyler Murray was the QB three last year.

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Speaker 2: That's that he finished that in terms of total points.

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Speaker 2: And he did it, which is so interesting to me

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Speaker 2: and kind of goes back to your point about the

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Speaker 2: running quarterbacks. He did it averaging just seven point one

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Speaker 2: yards per pass attempt, and his rookie year he was

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Speaker 2: at six point nine. So first he's not really been

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Speaker 2: a fishing through the air, but of course he makes.

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Speaker 1: Up with him on the ground.

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Speaker 2: Evan, where do you have Kyler first of all? And

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Speaker 2: then like, how do you see aj Green more the

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Speaker 2: rookie how do you see those guys kind of impacting

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Speaker 2: his pass efficiency?

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Speaker 3: I have Kyler Murray firmly in this first tier, but

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Speaker 3: at the bottom of the tier because I think it's

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Speaker 3: tough in watching him play, you know, he reminds me

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Speaker 3: of Allan Iverson. You know, there's not a great NFL

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Speaker 3: comp for him, but like a sports camp, he reminds

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Speaker 3: me of Allen Iverson. I mean, he is just nasty

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Speaker 3: with the ball in his hands. I still think eleven

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Speaker 3: rushing touchdowns is going to be tough to repeat. But

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Speaker 3: if you're looking at just straight rushing production across the league,

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Speaker 3: I think it's Kyler Murray and Lamar Jackson. Those guys

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Speaker 3: are going to go at it to be the true

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Speaker 3: number one rushing quarterback in the league. From a yardage

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Speaker 3: and possibly rushing TV standpoint, I mean, I think Kyler

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Speaker 3: Murray has maybe a thousand rushing yards in his potential

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Speaker 3: range of outcomes. I think, you know, Josh Allen's more

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Speaker 3: like eight hundred and Lamar shoot, we've seen him go

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Speaker 3: over one thousand now twice in a row. So I

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Speaker 3: think that Kyler Murray is in that tier with him

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Speaker 3: just from a rushing standpoint. But you mentioned he's he

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Speaker 3: is not fully developed as a passer. I think he's

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Speaker 3: been an inconsistent passer. He did improve in every rate

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Speaker 3: stat from his rookie to sophomore year, so he did

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Speaker 3: get a little bit better. He's small, though, and I

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Speaker 3: don't know you could maybe you know, place some of

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Speaker 3: the blame on some of the scrub receivers that they've

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Speaker 3: been running out their antight ends. I mean, they had

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Speaker 3: DeAndre Hopkins and then a whole lot of nothing, a

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Speaker 3: little bit of Christian Kirk last year mixing in, but

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Speaker 3: and I don't know that. I mean, what did aj

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Speaker 3: Green show us to give us any confidence that he's

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Speaker 3: really going to raise the level, help elevate Kyler Murray's passing.

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Speaker 3: I did love the addition of Rodney Hudson to play center,

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Speaker 3: and I think that their O line should be a

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Speaker 3: little bit better. But he's at the bottom of the

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Speaker 3: tier because yeah, we have not seen him throw the

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Speaker 3: football at the rate of like a Josh Allen or

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Speaker 3: Patrick Mahomes yet. But I do think that he's got

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Speaker 3: a thousand rushing yards in his range of potential outcome.

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Speaker 3: That's why he's in this year.

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Speaker 1: So what do you think of Kyler?

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Speaker 2: It was year three for Josh Allen when he really

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Speaker 2: took that that kind of weep throwing the football. Is

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Speaker 2: that something you see see potentially for Kyler heading into

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Speaker 2: two year three?

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Speaker 4: Sean, Yeah, absolutely.

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Speaker 5: And by the way, Raybon, I can't believe you let

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Speaker 5: Evan get away with that Dan Arnold slander.

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Speaker 4: Tight ends.

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Speaker 6: Come on, Dane, they were running out like Darryl Daniels

405
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Speaker 6: and Mat Williams, Sean Johnson and Trent Sherfield, And I

406
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Speaker 6: mean some of these dudes are aren't even in the

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Speaker 6: league anymore.

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Speaker 1: Jared was their tight end.

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Speaker 5: Essentially, But I do think Kyler Murray deserves to be, uh,

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Speaker 5: you know, number three. He's number three in my rankings.

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Speaker 5: I'm basically tye with Lamar Jackson right now. But you

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Speaker 5: know the theme with these top six qbs. He flashed his

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Speaker 5: QB one upside last year. He was QB one weeks

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Speaker 5: one through nine, and he said that he thinks he

415
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Speaker 5: had his shoulder injured in that Week nine game against

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Speaker 5: the Dolphins. So you know, weeks ten through seventeen, he

417
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Speaker 5: was QB ten playing with that hurt shoulder. So I'm

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Speaker 5: going to cut him some slack there, But we already

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Speaker 5: saw when he was healthy that he has QB one potential.

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Speaker 5: You know, I think he's going to build even more

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Speaker 5: chemistry with Hopkins and near two. I don't like the

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Speaker 5: AJ Green signing at all, but if anything, it could

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Speaker 5: unlock Christian Kirk's potential if they kick him inside and

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Speaker 5: he'll you know, you know, his natural position is a slot,

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Speaker 5: so I think we could see a breakout hear from Kirk.

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Speaker 4: I love the Rondel Moore pick.

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Speaker 5: You know, they love to throw screens the receivers, and

428
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Speaker 5: he has that making missibility just get the ball in

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Speaker 5: his hands. So he could be a yack monster that

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Speaker 5: can help Kyler out as you know, an extension of

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Speaker 5: the run game. So you know, I think Kyler Murray

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Speaker 5: has shown his QB one upside. That's why I'm just

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Speaker 5: having him and Lamar in the sort of mini QB

434
00:21:01,920 --> 00:21:04,760
Speaker 5: Tier two where that either one of them has a

435
00:21:04,840 --> 00:21:07,160
Speaker 5: QB one potential season. So if either of them fall

436
00:21:07,600 --> 00:21:09,359
Speaker 5: at a certain point in the draft, more than willing

437
00:21:09,480 --> 00:21:10,320
Speaker 5: to take either one.

438
00:21:11,400 --> 00:21:16,159
Speaker 2: Yeah, I actually do like Kyler above Lamar as well.

439
00:21:16,560 --> 00:21:20,120
Speaker 2: I mean that's just because it's a volume thing. I think, Evan,

440
00:21:20,160 --> 00:21:22,639
Speaker 2: as you mentioned, they can both challenge for the league

441
00:21:22,720 --> 00:21:25,680
Speaker 2: league among quarterbacks and rushing. But I don't think we've

442
00:21:25,680 --> 00:21:29,560
Speaker 2: seen Kyler's full potential as a passer. I don't know

443
00:21:30,119 --> 00:21:34,760
Speaker 2: that the Ravens can consistently get enough volume passing to

444
00:21:34,880 --> 00:21:37,000
Speaker 2: kind of offset the fact that I think their rushing

445
00:21:37,119 --> 00:21:40,800
Speaker 2: kind of ceilings are similar. So last year, the Cardinals

446
00:21:40,840 --> 00:21:43,679
Speaker 2: were fifteenth in past attempts. The year before they were eighteenth,

447
00:21:43,720 --> 00:21:47,919
Speaker 2: Baltimore thirty second both years. So Evan, you're high and

448
00:21:48,000 --> 00:21:50,840
Speaker 2: Lamar talk to us about him and why you're so

449
00:21:50,840 --> 00:21:52,760
Speaker 2: so billish on him.

450
00:21:53,080 --> 00:21:58,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, so his rushing floor is just like unrivaled. So

451
00:21:58,920 --> 00:22:00,680
Speaker 3: you know, last year, I mean I don't even think

452
00:22:00,680 --> 00:22:04,920
Speaker 3: he had the best season, and he was like quarterback ten.

453
00:22:04,960 --> 00:22:07,440
Speaker 3: I mean, he's you know, he's gonna be He's a

454
00:22:07,520 --> 00:22:10,920
Speaker 3: high floor guy and any and he finished strong. He

455
00:22:11,040 --> 00:22:12,920
Speaker 3: they they really did kind of struggle early in the

456
00:22:13,000 --> 00:22:17,359
Speaker 3: year there. But and and I mean Mark Andrews I

457
00:22:17,359 --> 00:22:20,040
Speaker 3: thought did not have his best season by you know,

458
00:22:20,080 --> 00:22:22,040
Speaker 3: by by a long shot. I think that he can

459
00:22:22,400 --> 00:22:24,360
Speaker 3: he can improve. They go out use a first round pick,

460
00:22:24,400 --> 00:22:28,000
Speaker 3: umber Shot Bateman. Sammy Watkins is sort of like, you know,

461
00:22:28,280 --> 00:22:31,200
Speaker 3: a savvy veteran that that can give them some credit.

462
00:22:31,200 --> 00:22:33,440
Speaker 3: I mean they again they were relying heavily on like

463
00:22:33,520 --> 00:22:38,919
Speaker 3: Miles Boykin. Last year. They lost Ronnie Stanley. He'll be back.

464
00:22:39,480 --> 00:22:42,000
Speaker 3: I love the addition of Kevin Zeitler. Again, a lot

465
00:22:42,040 --> 00:22:46,040
Speaker 3: of continuity in the coaching staff with Greg Roman coming back.

466
00:22:47,640 --> 00:22:50,119
Speaker 3: Just the floor there is rock solid, I think with

467
00:22:50,240 --> 00:22:54,359
Speaker 3: Lamar and you know he's he's also a quarterback that

468
00:22:54,440 --> 00:22:57,240
Speaker 3: has really excelled when his team has had the lead,

469
00:22:58,080 --> 00:23:01,840
Speaker 3: and you know, the finished number one in point differential

470
00:23:01,880 --> 00:23:03,360
Speaker 3: in each of the last two years. I think they're

471
00:23:03,359 --> 00:23:05,960
Speaker 3: gonna be really good again. Their win totals ten and

472
00:23:06,000 --> 00:23:07,760
Speaker 3: a half. I think they're gonna beat that. I mean

473
00:23:07,840 --> 00:23:09,760
Speaker 3: week one again. How were they only four and a

474
00:23:09,800 --> 00:23:11,720
Speaker 3: half point favorites against the Raiders.

475
00:23:11,880 --> 00:23:13,560
Speaker 1: I took that the minute I saw it, I got

476
00:23:13,560 --> 00:23:15,480
Speaker 1: I might go fo yeah.

477
00:23:15,440 --> 00:23:17,479
Speaker 3: Like, yeah, it's Baker, what's the deal here?

478
00:23:17,840 --> 00:23:22,320
Speaker 5: Well, we think they were factoring just the slight chance

479
00:23:22,359 --> 00:23:25,240
Speaker 5: that Aaron Rodgers might get trade to the Raiders, but

480
00:23:26,680 --> 00:23:28,240
Speaker 5: I don't think the chances are high enough to even

481
00:23:28,280 --> 00:23:29,080
Speaker 5: impact the spread.

482
00:23:29,119 --> 00:23:31,040
Speaker 4: So I don't know why they had it that.

483
00:23:31,240 --> 00:23:32,919
Speaker 3: I was thinking that maybe they were thinking that the

484
00:23:32,960 --> 00:23:35,840
Speaker 3: club that they are installed at the new stadium, like,

485
00:23:36,000 --> 00:23:38,280
Speaker 3: you know, they're gonna be rocking out and that's gonna

486
00:23:38,280 --> 00:23:40,280
Speaker 3: give them, you know, a big advantage on the field.

487
00:23:40,320 --> 00:23:42,240
Speaker 4: I don't know, out paying attention to the football game.

488
00:23:42,359 --> 00:23:45,080
Speaker 2: Yeah right, yeah, it's I mean, I mean, the only

489
00:23:45,119 --> 00:23:47,000
Speaker 2: thing I'll say that I disagreed with in that whole

490
00:23:47,000 --> 00:23:49,120
Speaker 2: statement was that Sammy Watkins is gonna help it all

491
00:23:49,160 --> 00:23:51,040
Speaker 2: I think he's like as useless as boy King at

492
00:23:51,080 --> 00:23:53,120
Speaker 2: this stage in his career, like if he wasn't getting

493
00:23:53,160 --> 00:23:55,240
Speaker 2: it done with all that coverage going to other way

494
00:23:55,320 --> 00:23:57,480
Speaker 2: in Casey, I just I don't see it here, But

495
00:23:57,800 --> 00:24:00,679
Speaker 2: I do like what you said about he actually is

496
00:24:00,680 --> 00:24:04,000
Speaker 2: one of the few quarterbacks that can play and be

497
00:24:04,040 --> 00:24:06,200
Speaker 2: effected from a fantasy standpoint with a lead.

498
00:24:07,000 --> 00:24:08,520
Speaker 1: Because a lot of times.

499
00:24:08,400 --> 00:24:11,359
Speaker 2: You see quarterbacks where they really get the extra boost

500
00:24:11,520 --> 00:24:15,040
Speaker 2: is you know, in these kind of shootout games that

501
00:24:15,080 --> 00:24:17,040
Speaker 2: you know, maybe they have a tough schedule, you know,

502
00:24:17,080 --> 00:24:18,480
Speaker 2: even a guy like Brady, you know, you have to

503
00:24:18,480 --> 00:24:20,639
Speaker 2: go against teams like New Orleans and things like that.

504
00:24:20,720 --> 00:24:23,920
Speaker 2: But Jackson can play well with a lead, So I

505
00:24:23,920 --> 00:24:27,480
Speaker 2: think that really helps his floor. Sean, do you where

506
00:24:27,480 --> 00:24:28,639
Speaker 2: are you on on Lamar?

507
00:24:29,520 --> 00:24:32,399
Speaker 5: Yeah, I'm buying the dip on Lamar this year. You know,

508
00:24:32,720 --> 00:24:35,399
Speaker 5: he was a huge dispoint last year and he finished

509
00:24:35,440 --> 00:24:38,560
Speaker 5: as a QB eight. So again with this theme, all

510
00:24:38,560 --> 00:24:40,560
Speaker 5: these guys have QB one potential. Here he showed it

511
00:24:40,600 --> 00:24:42,960
Speaker 5: in twenty nineteen, and we have to remember, you know,

512
00:24:43,080 --> 00:24:46,200
Speaker 5: ADP stands for average draft position. I've been in plenty

513
00:24:46,280 --> 00:24:49,560
Speaker 5: of drafts where Dak Prescott was taken ahead of Lamar Jackson,

514
00:24:50,080 --> 00:24:51,879
Speaker 5: so you know, if he falls to you at QB

515
00:24:51,920 --> 00:24:54,280
Speaker 5: five or even QB six, I've had a couple of

516
00:24:54,359 --> 00:24:58,360
Speaker 5: drafts like you take him. So you know, this offense,

517
00:24:58,800 --> 00:25:01,560
Speaker 5: I agree, Sammy Watkin probably won't change much, but Rashaan

518
00:25:01,600 --> 00:25:05,320
Speaker 5: Bateman could. If one of these guys step up, it's

519
00:25:05,320 --> 00:25:07,280
Speaker 5: going to help a guy like Marky's boy came out.

520
00:25:07,280 --> 00:25:09,160
Speaker 5: I think he'll benefit from you.

521
00:25:09,080 --> 00:25:10,119
Speaker 1: Know, not Martin Brown.

522
00:25:10,240 --> 00:25:11,920
Speaker 4: Yeah, oh yeah, Marquis Brown.

523
00:25:12,840 --> 00:25:15,200
Speaker 1: That's that has just been a disaster.

524
00:25:15,400 --> 00:25:17,840
Speaker 3: Mark Brown is in his third year. That used to

525
00:25:17,920 --> 00:25:19,920
Speaker 3: be the year everybody thought that the wide receivers would

526
00:25:19,920 --> 00:25:20,720
Speaker 3: take their step forward.

527
00:25:20,760 --> 00:25:22,800
Speaker 2: You know, yeah, it's too a lot of times now,

528
00:25:22,840 --> 00:25:24,880
Speaker 2: a lot of times you see it because like it's

529
00:25:24,920 --> 00:25:27,520
Speaker 2: just the reps. It's like received, like teams are throwing

530
00:25:27,880 --> 00:25:29,800
Speaker 2: two thirds of the time. So you get you're running

531
00:25:29,800 --> 00:25:32,600
Speaker 2: so many routes that rookie year and in practice that

532
00:25:32,680 --> 00:25:33,080
Speaker 2: year too.

533
00:25:33,119 --> 00:25:35,160
Speaker 1: You kind of but sorry, good, Jeff.

534
00:25:35,640 --> 00:25:37,760
Speaker 5: Yeah, I love Marcus Brown this year. You know, Greg

535
00:25:37,840 --> 00:25:40,119
Speaker 5: Roman has even said he wants to expand offense and

536
00:25:40,200 --> 00:25:43,159
Speaker 5: attack down field more. So, you know, Lamar should have

537
00:25:43,200 --> 00:25:45,399
Speaker 5: a bounce back here. As a passer in twenty twenty one. So,

538
00:25:45,480 --> 00:25:47,400
Speaker 5: like I said, I consider him in that tier two

539
00:25:47,840 --> 00:25:49,280
Speaker 5: with Kyler and Lamar.

540
00:25:52,320 --> 00:25:55,439
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573
00:27:19,359 --> 00:27:21,240
Speaker 2: All right, let's go to Let's go to Dak now,

574
00:27:21,240 --> 00:27:24,640
Speaker 2: because Dak is, I mean, he's all sorts of interesting

575
00:27:24,760 --> 00:27:26,800
Speaker 2: and Evan you kind of hit on it at the top.

576
00:27:27,320 --> 00:27:30,280
Speaker 2: He's coming off an injury, a pretty nasty one, but

577
00:27:30,359 --> 00:27:32,240
Speaker 2: one that I think we're expecting him to make a

578
00:27:32,280 --> 00:27:36,320
Speaker 2: full recovery. That may be burying the weed because before

579
00:27:36,359 --> 00:27:39,480
Speaker 2: he had this injury four hundred and fifty yards passing

580
00:27:39,840 --> 00:27:42,960
Speaker 2: one touchdown, but then three more on the ground against

581
00:27:43,000 --> 00:27:46,200
Speaker 2: Atlanta the next game, four hundred and seventy two yards

582
00:27:46,240 --> 00:27:51,000
Speaker 2: passing three scores, and then Cleveland five hundred and two

583
00:27:51,080 --> 00:27:55,480
Speaker 2: yards passing four scores. Like, how are you balancing the

584
00:27:55,600 --> 00:27:58,480
Speaker 2: injury with the upside of that?

585
00:27:58,800 --> 00:28:01,080
Speaker 1: Just going bonkers because as can't play defense?

586
00:28:01,520 --> 00:28:04,920
Speaker 3: Yeah, the table is set is and Amar's back gallops back.

587
00:28:04,960 --> 00:28:07,520
Speaker 3: You know, Jarwin's back from his injury. Ceedee Lamb could

588
00:28:07,560 --> 00:28:10,120
Speaker 3: be I mean, Ceedee Lamb could go off this year.

589
00:28:10,240 --> 00:28:12,240
Speaker 3: You know. He every time I look at my my

590
00:28:12,280 --> 00:28:14,400
Speaker 3: wide receiver rankings, I'm like, man, I can I need

591
00:28:14,440 --> 00:28:17,960
Speaker 3: to nudge him up a little bit more because he

592
00:28:18,080 --> 00:28:21,520
Speaker 3: I mean, he's an absolute baller. You know, the the

593
00:28:21,560 --> 00:28:24,119
Speaker 3: old line is back in the in the reserves. You know,

594
00:28:24,160 --> 00:28:27,000
Speaker 3: the backups got the experience now, so they go like

595
00:28:27,119 --> 00:28:29,199
Speaker 3: nine deep with guys that have started like, you know,

596
00:28:29,280 --> 00:28:32,879
Speaker 3: six games or more in the NFL. I like what

597
00:28:33,000 --> 00:28:37,720
Speaker 3: Kellen Moore has done and and I mean we and

598
00:28:37,800 --> 00:28:40,360
Speaker 3: Dak Prescott has that that rushing ability too that we

599
00:28:40,360 --> 00:28:42,560
Speaker 3: talked about it at the top. Now, will it be

600
00:28:42,600 --> 00:28:46,040
Speaker 3: the same following this injury? Will he start slow, you know,

601
00:28:46,080 --> 00:28:50,600
Speaker 3: if he's not confident on on his leg, that that's

602
00:28:50,760 --> 00:28:55,600
Speaker 3: that's the conundrum to me, is truly what you just asked, Chris, Uh.

603
00:28:55,760 --> 00:28:58,800
Speaker 3: You know, how do you balance the injury? That injury

604
00:28:58,880 --> 00:29:02,080
Speaker 3: was painful. I remember I can still picture myself watching

605
00:29:02,120 --> 00:29:04,400
Speaker 3: it on TV, and you know, sitting here with a

606
00:29:04,400 --> 00:29:08,320
Speaker 3: ton of Dallas stacks in f FPC and just like

607
00:29:08,440 --> 00:29:10,760
Speaker 3: you know, it's over, you know it's over right now.

608
00:29:10,800 --> 00:29:12,560
Speaker 3: And I may be having a little bit of a

609
00:29:12,720 --> 00:29:16,120
Speaker 3: personal bias because of that. He's just watching that and

610
00:29:16,160 --> 00:29:19,160
Speaker 3: seeing my my fantasy season essentially go down the tubes

611
00:29:19,520 --> 00:29:22,320
Speaker 3: on that injury. Truly, you know, I might have some

612
00:29:22,400 --> 00:29:25,680
Speaker 3: personal bias here, but I mean it was a severe injury,

613
00:29:25,960 --> 00:29:28,240
Speaker 3: and so that to me is keeping him out of

614
00:29:28,240 --> 00:29:30,360
Speaker 3: the first tier. But I mean, I have no there's

615
00:29:30,400 --> 00:29:32,760
Speaker 3: no doubt in my mind that he is a first

616
00:29:32,840 --> 00:29:36,920
Speaker 3: tier caliber scorer and if he can put this injury

617
00:29:36,960 --> 00:29:40,600
Speaker 3: behind him, the Cowboys could absolutely lead the NFL.

618
00:29:40,280 --> 00:29:40,960
Speaker 1: In points.

619
00:29:42,680 --> 00:29:43,000
Speaker 3: On Dak.

620
00:29:44,200 --> 00:29:47,000
Speaker 5: Yeah, I'm not too concerned about his injury, you know,

621
00:29:48,200 --> 00:29:51,320
Speaker 5: from a you know, fantasy standpoint, like he might run

622
00:29:51,360 --> 00:29:53,080
Speaker 5: a little bit less to start the season, but he's

623
00:29:53,120 --> 00:29:55,840
Speaker 5: never been you know, like a Lamar or Kyler type

624
00:29:55,840 --> 00:29:58,760
Speaker 5: of runner. So I'm a little bit less concerned if

625
00:29:58,800 --> 00:30:01,440
Speaker 5: anything else throw more. But again with this theme that

626
00:30:01,480 --> 00:30:03,920
Speaker 5: these guys have qubo and upside. He was QB one

627
00:30:04,600 --> 00:30:08,280
Speaker 5: weeks one through four last year before he got injured. Obviously,

628
00:30:08,320 --> 00:30:10,680
Speaker 5: those four hundred and twenty two passing yards per game

629
00:30:10,800 --> 00:30:14,880
Speaker 5: are unsustainable, but you know, he has arguably the best

630
00:30:14,880 --> 00:30:18,000
Speaker 5: trio wide receivers in the game. And I think, you know,

631
00:30:18,040 --> 00:30:20,800
Speaker 5: Evan mentioned it like the Skuy's limit with Ceedee Lamb.

632
00:30:21,040 --> 00:30:23,600
Speaker 5: He for some reason, he was only averaging sixty five

633
00:30:23,680 --> 00:30:26,160
Speaker 5: to seventy percent of routes run per game. They were

634
00:30:26,200 --> 00:30:29,120
Speaker 5: mixing on guys like Cedric Wilson Noah Brown, which is

635
00:30:29,240 --> 00:30:32,240
Speaker 5: absolutely ridiculous. So you know we're gonna get Ceede Lamb

636
00:30:32,760 --> 00:30:35,200
Speaker 5: hopefully over ninety percent of routes run per game. That's

637
00:30:35,200 --> 00:30:37,760
Speaker 5: going to help back out. He gets Blake Jarwin back.

638
00:30:38,080 --> 00:30:40,520
Speaker 5: We saw Dalton Schultz can step up if needed. So

639
00:30:40,600 --> 00:30:42,280
Speaker 5: I just love this offense. So that's why I have

640
00:30:42,400 --> 00:30:44,960
Speaker 5: Dak still as my QB five. Even if his rushing

641
00:30:44,960 --> 00:30:47,479
Speaker 5: stats go down a little bit, I still think that

642
00:30:47,520 --> 00:30:50,080
Speaker 5: the passing upside's just enormous in this offense.

643
00:30:51,320 --> 00:30:54,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, it comes back to me just to that defense.

644
00:30:54,600 --> 00:30:56,640
Speaker 2: I don't I know they made some changes. I don't

645
00:30:56,720 --> 00:30:59,480
Speaker 2: know how much better is going to be. And that

646
00:30:59,560 --> 00:31:02,880
Speaker 2: gives me confidence because the first few years that entire career,

647
00:31:02,920 --> 00:31:08,200
Speaker 2: actually he actually had a above average defense until last year, Like,

648
00:31:08,320 --> 00:31:10,680
Speaker 2: it wasn't a terrible defense even maybe if it was

649
00:31:10,760 --> 00:31:13,200
Speaker 2: kind of nondescript, and all of a sudden it really

650
00:31:13,240 --> 00:31:14,040
Speaker 2: fell off a cliff.

651
00:31:14,280 --> 00:31:15,760
Speaker 1: We saw the numbers go crazy.

652
00:31:15,840 --> 00:31:18,760
Speaker 2: So the injury, it's hard at this point for me

653
00:31:18,800 --> 00:31:20,680
Speaker 2: to to dock him too much. You just have to

654
00:31:20,760 --> 00:31:23,160
Speaker 2: kind of assume and make a full recovery. But if

655
00:31:23,160 --> 00:31:25,600
Speaker 2: we start hearing things that are worrisome, you know, as

656
00:31:25,600 --> 00:31:27,560
Speaker 2: we get closer to camp, or he doesn't I mean

657
00:31:27,760 --> 00:31:30,560
Speaker 2: closer to the season and he doesn't look right, if

658
00:31:30,560 --> 00:31:34,360
Speaker 2: he gets any action heading into it, then then maybe

659
00:31:34,400 --> 00:31:35,080
Speaker 2: you knock him down.

660
00:31:35,160 --> 00:31:38,880
Speaker 1: But I think he still deserves to be in that

661
00:31:38,960 --> 00:31:39,920
Speaker 1: number five spot.

662
00:31:40,000 --> 00:31:44,720
Speaker 2: Evan, Like it starts to get interesting after after Dak

663
00:31:44,840 --> 00:31:50,960
Speaker 2: because you have justin Herbert, Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers in

664
00:31:51,040 --> 00:31:55,080
Speaker 2: the six through eight spots by ad P with Herbert

665
00:31:55,120 --> 00:31:59,480
Speaker 2: recently jumping Wilson. Where are you on on Herbert compared

666
00:31:59,480 --> 00:32:01,840
Speaker 2: to that, you know, compared to Dak and then compared

667
00:32:01,880 --> 00:32:03,160
Speaker 2: to Wilson and Rodgers.

668
00:32:04,200 --> 00:32:07,280
Speaker 3: Yeah, so I've got Dak five and then a little

669
00:32:07,280 --> 00:32:11,160
Speaker 3: bit of a gap and then Russ and then Herbert

670
00:32:11,280 --> 00:32:14,080
Speaker 3: like right next to each other, and then Jalen Hurts

671
00:32:14,200 --> 00:32:17,320
Speaker 3: at quarterback eight a little bit further down the board.

672
00:32:19,040 --> 00:32:23,280
Speaker 3: I think that Russ Russ like before he retires, this

673
00:32:23,360 --> 00:32:25,240
Speaker 3: dude better getting an MVP. I mean, he's been so

674
00:32:25,400 --> 00:32:28,360
Speaker 3: close a couple of times. You remember, he like had it

675
00:32:28,400 --> 00:32:31,920
Speaker 3: in the bank through twelve weeks last year or something

676
00:32:31,960 --> 00:32:34,280
Speaker 3: like that, and then you know, they he threw a

677
00:32:34,280 --> 00:32:36,880
Speaker 3: few interceptions and then Pete Carroll was like, no, we're

678
00:32:36,880 --> 00:32:39,200
Speaker 3: gonna hand the ball to DJ Dallas thirty times a game.

679
00:32:39,280 --> 00:32:42,680
Speaker 3: You know, like just totally sunk his season and he

680
00:32:42,680 --> 00:32:46,760
Speaker 3: didn't play very well down the stretch. But I really

681
00:32:46,800 --> 00:32:50,000
Speaker 3: like the addition of Shane Waldron, the new OC who

682
00:32:50,040 --> 00:32:54,040
Speaker 3: they know very well having played against him for multiple seasons,

683
00:32:54,600 --> 00:32:58,600
Speaker 3: as you know, the former Rams passing game coordinator, and

684
00:32:58,640 --> 00:33:01,760
Speaker 3: he's been talking a lot about tempo, playing up tempo.

685
00:33:01,840 --> 00:33:03,680
Speaker 3: There's no quarterback in the league. I like to watch

686
00:33:03,720 --> 00:33:08,120
Speaker 3: more play with urgency than Russell Wilson. So let's get

687
00:33:08,160 --> 00:33:12,080
Speaker 3: this dude playing up tempo. You know, DK Metcalf and

688
00:33:12,120 --> 00:33:15,360
Speaker 3: Tyler Lockett or both back. They add Dwayne Eskridge in

689
00:33:15,400 --> 00:33:17,800
Speaker 3: the second round. Maybe kind of a reach, but you know,

690
00:33:17,840 --> 00:33:20,280
Speaker 3: a guy who gives them a little bit of playmaking potential.

691
00:33:20,600 --> 00:33:25,360
Speaker 3: Jerald Everett follows over, follows Shane Waldron over from the

692
00:33:25,440 --> 00:33:28,080
Speaker 3: Rams and Jerald Everett. I mean, he's been, you know,

693
00:33:28,280 --> 00:33:30,360
Speaker 3: a potential ridden sort of maybe a little bit of

694
00:33:30,400 --> 00:33:34,720
Speaker 3: an underachiever for years now, but definitely a great athlete.

695
00:33:34,760 --> 00:33:38,840
Speaker 3: Has had some really big games, specifically against Seattle, and

696
00:33:38,920 --> 00:33:40,200
Speaker 3: I think that that might have been one of the

697
00:33:40,200 --> 00:33:42,760
Speaker 3: reasons that they were encouraged to draft him or to

698
00:33:43,680 --> 00:33:46,920
Speaker 3: pick him up. And then Gabe Jackson on the offensive line.

699
00:33:47,480 --> 00:33:49,160
Speaker 3: You know, he's like a three hundred and thirty pound dude,

700
00:33:49,200 --> 00:33:51,960
Speaker 3: but he's better at pass blocking than run blocking. So

701
00:33:52,600 --> 00:33:56,360
Speaker 3: I like. I like their offseason, man, and I don't

702
00:33:56,400 --> 00:34:00,920
Speaker 3: believe their early offseason rhetoric that they want to take

703
00:34:00,960 --> 00:34:02,600
Speaker 3: the air out of the ball. I think that they're

704
00:34:02,640 --> 00:34:05,160
Speaker 3: going to be more aggressive than we think. I think

705
00:34:05,200 --> 00:34:08,480
Speaker 3: indications that have started begun to point that way. Russell

706
00:34:08,520 --> 00:34:12,720
Speaker 3: Wilson's been talking about it publicly, and I think Russell Wilson,

707
00:34:12,800 --> 00:34:16,239
Speaker 3: you know, I think he's you know, you put a

708
00:34:16,239 --> 00:34:18,040
Speaker 3: little you sprinkle a little bit on him for MVP

709
00:34:18,520 --> 00:34:20,719
Speaker 3: like every year, but especially this year. I think you

710
00:34:20,719 --> 00:34:22,800
Speaker 3: can still get him at like sixteen or twenty to one.

711
00:34:23,080 --> 00:34:26,120
Speaker 2: As you mentioned, Evan, the defense too, I think last

712
00:34:26,160 --> 00:34:28,000
Speaker 2: year because he didn't play well down a stretch and

713
00:34:28,040 --> 00:34:29,799
Speaker 2: it was kind of at the same time that the

714
00:34:29,840 --> 00:34:31,920
Speaker 2: defense came together. Remember they had that stretch like I

715
00:34:31,960 --> 00:34:33,239
Speaker 2: think it was the last seven eight weeks where they

716
00:34:33,239 --> 00:34:35,080
Speaker 2: didn't average, they didn't give up I think it was

717
00:34:35,120 --> 00:34:37,239
Speaker 2: more than like twenty three points in any game or

718
00:34:37,280 --> 00:34:39,920
Speaker 2: they only did it once. Like defense was playing better.

719
00:34:40,400 --> 00:34:43,319
Speaker 2: You know, Russ was struggling. But if you look at

720
00:34:43,400 --> 00:34:46,880
Speaker 2: his numbers, five in the past six seasons, he's gotten

721
00:34:46,880 --> 00:34:50,759
Speaker 2: to thirty plus touchdowns, you know, forty last year. For

722
00:34:51,000 --> 00:34:53,360
Speaker 2: the past six he's gotten the four thousand yards. So

723
00:34:53,880 --> 00:34:57,840
Speaker 2: he deserves, in my opinion, to be above Herbert just

724
00:34:57,880 --> 00:35:00,480
Speaker 2: based off that they're just more consistent there now. I

725
00:35:00,560 --> 00:35:03,600
Speaker 2: do think Herbert has the chance to play more shootouts.

726
00:35:04,120 --> 00:35:07,000
Speaker 2: So Sean, I'll ask you this like whether rough cooks

727
00:35:07,280 --> 00:35:09,239
Speaker 2: or doesn't, and like you can give your opinion on that,

728
00:35:09,480 --> 00:35:11,800
Speaker 2: but does it even matter, Like does it even matter

729
00:35:11,960 --> 00:35:14,520
Speaker 2: if they're more aggressive, because it seems like we've been

730
00:35:14,640 --> 00:35:17,480
Speaker 2: clamoring for this every year and it's just like thirty

731
00:35:17,520 --> 00:35:18,760
Speaker 2: five touchdowns.

732
00:35:18,280 --> 00:35:22,200
Speaker 5: And over four thousand yards. Well, yeah, of course it matters.

733
00:35:22,239 --> 00:35:25,120
Speaker 5: Because last year we saw weeks went through eight when

734
00:35:25,120 --> 00:35:27,400
Speaker 5: they let him cook, he was QB one and then

735
00:35:27,440 --> 00:35:30,600
Speaker 5: everin we mentioned he fell off a cliff in the

736
00:35:30,600 --> 00:35:32,959
Speaker 5: second half, but in the end he was QB six

737
00:35:33,000 --> 00:35:35,080
Speaker 5: and that really does feel like his floor. So that's

738
00:35:35,080 --> 00:35:37,719
Speaker 5: why I have him in a mini Tier three with

739
00:35:37,800 --> 00:35:39,920
Speaker 5: Dak Prescot, where I think that's the end of guys

740
00:35:39,920 --> 00:35:44,040
Speaker 5: that have legit QB one potential. Now the person's saying

741
00:35:44,000 --> 00:35:45,920
Speaker 5: in the way of this, of course, is Pete Carroll,

742
00:35:45,960 --> 00:35:49,480
Speaker 5: But I really do think, you know, Shane Waldron, could

743
00:35:49,760 --> 00:35:52,680
Speaker 5: you know shield Russ from that a bit? And this

744
00:35:52,719 --> 00:35:54,520
Speaker 5: is gonna be an up tempo offense. And I love

745
00:35:55,239 --> 00:35:57,879
Speaker 5: investing in DK Metcalf this year. You know, he's entering

746
00:35:58,000 --> 00:36:00,000
Speaker 5: year three. He's going to be a monster this year.

747
00:36:00,640 --> 00:36:03,439
Speaker 5: So I'm fine taking Russell Wilson as the sixth QB

748
00:36:03,520 --> 00:36:04,040
Speaker 5: off the board.

749
00:36:04,160 --> 00:36:06,040
Speaker 4: I have a big enough gap.

750
00:36:05,800 --> 00:36:07,839
Speaker 5: Between him and Herbert where I do think there's a

751
00:36:07,880 --> 00:36:10,440
Speaker 5: tier divide. But you know, we saw the first half

752
00:36:10,480 --> 00:36:13,080
Speaker 5: of last season what happens if you do let Russ cooking.

753
00:36:13,440 --> 00:36:15,160
Speaker 5: Like you said, it had a lot to do with

754
00:36:15,200 --> 00:36:18,040
Speaker 5: the defense. The defense did get a lot better, so

755
00:36:18,120 --> 00:36:19,799
Speaker 5: that played into it. But I think this year they

756
00:36:19,800 --> 00:36:21,040
Speaker 5: do let him pass a bit more.

757
00:36:21,640 --> 00:36:25,400
Speaker 2: All right, Evan, talk to me about Herbert because you

758
00:36:25,480 --> 00:36:29,239
Speaker 2: have him after Russ, Right, So is there is there

759
00:36:29,280 --> 00:36:31,400
Speaker 2: a big app like with Seawan or you had. You

760
00:36:31,400 --> 00:36:33,040
Speaker 2: said they're kind of neck and neck for you talk

761
00:36:33,080 --> 00:36:35,440
Speaker 2: to me about like what you think is gonna come

762
00:36:35,440 --> 00:36:37,560
Speaker 2: of him in year two. You know, Anthony Wynnet is

763
00:36:37,600 --> 00:36:40,319
Speaker 2: now gone, but he had a really impressive rookie year.

764
00:36:40,480 --> 00:36:42,480
Speaker 3: Oh yeah, now yeah, I have him pretty much back

765
00:36:42,480 --> 00:36:48,800
Speaker 3: to back in an overall rankings. You know, he can run.

766
00:36:49,239 --> 00:36:52,880
Speaker 3: He's a really good athlete. He was supposed to be

767
00:36:53,560 --> 00:36:56,480
Speaker 3: sort of a conservative passer coming out of Oregon. That

768
00:36:56,600 --> 00:36:59,040
Speaker 3: was like the draft Twitter take on him. He was

769
00:36:59,120 --> 00:37:02,239
Speaker 3: clearly just a product of the Oregon system and the

770
00:37:02,280 --> 00:37:06,920
Speaker 3: fact that has Oregon produced like an NFL pass catcher

771
00:37:07,000 --> 00:37:09,160
Speaker 3: in like you know, the last half decade. I mean,

772
00:37:09,560 --> 00:37:11,719
Speaker 3: can you name one? There was a seventh round pick

773
00:37:11,760 --> 00:37:14,520
Speaker 3: of the Vikings and he's out of the league a

774
00:37:14,560 --> 00:37:18,000
Speaker 3: couple of years ago. De Anthony Thomas, you know, I

775
00:37:18,000 --> 00:37:21,400
Speaker 3: mean that was like a long time ago. I mean, like,

776
00:37:21,440 --> 00:37:25,520
Speaker 3: can you even name one? I can't. So he was

777
00:37:25,560 --> 00:37:28,440
Speaker 3: surrounded with a whole lot of nothing at Oregon and

778
00:37:28,560 --> 00:37:30,600
Speaker 3: just throwing a bunch of dump off passes that these

779
00:37:30,640 --> 00:37:33,480
Speaker 3: little scrubs could catch. And now he gets to the NFL,

780
00:37:33,520 --> 00:37:36,120
Speaker 3: He's like, yo, let's roll. Although he did throw a

781
00:37:36,160 --> 00:37:38,759
Speaker 3: lot of short passes to Keenan Allen, but he was

782
00:37:38,800 --> 00:37:41,239
Speaker 3: aggressive going down the field to Mike Williams. They didn't

783
00:37:41,280 --> 00:37:43,160
Speaker 3: have to show a lot a lot of chemistry in

784
00:37:43,239 --> 00:37:45,080
Speaker 3: year one, but I think that they will. I think

785
00:37:45,080 --> 00:37:48,120
Speaker 3: that'll start to connect a little bit in year two.

786
00:37:50,360 --> 00:37:53,279
Speaker 3: I mean I just oh, and their offensive line improvements

787
00:37:53,280 --> 00:37:55,800
Speaker 3: were major well for the coaching staff, and the offensive

788
00:37:55,800 --> 00:37:59,600
Speaker 3: line improvements are things that, you know, really really stand out.

789
00:37:59,600 --> 00:38:02,760
Speaker 3: Being able to Steele with Sean Slater at the thirteenth

790
00:38:02,840 --> 00:38:05,760
Speaker 3: overall pick. Some people thought he might go like top seven,

791
00:38:07,440 --> 00:38:10,600
Speaker 3: you know, signing Matt Feiler. He's been like a steady

792
00:38:11,120 --> 00:38:16,840
Speaker 3: left guard slash tackle for the Steelers, you know, signing

793
00:38:16,840 --> 00:38:20,839
Speaker 3: Corey Linsley from the Packers, a stud center, getting back

794
00:38:20,880 --> 00:38:22,239
Speaker 3: Brian bul Log of healthy. All of a sudden, you

795
00:38:22,280 --> 00:38:26,480
Speaker 3: have four solid offensive linemen, and I mean, Philip Rivers

796
00:38:26,520 --> 00:38:30,880
Speaker 3: went fifteen years without having four solid offensive linemen before

797
00:38:31,040 --> 00:38:35,400
Speaker 3: Justin Herbert came along. So you know, there is some

798
00:38:35,520 --> 00:38:37,560
Speaker 3: fear of the unknown. I mean, there's a lot of

799
00:38:37,640 --> 00:38:39,600
Speaker 3: change going on here. You know, I talked about the

800
00:38:39,600 --> 00:38:41,959
Speaker 3: continuity with some of the dudes up top, like Josh

801
00:38:42,040 --> 00:38:45,239
Speaker 3: Allen and Mahomes has a solid amount of continuity, Lamar

802
00:38:45,320 --> 00:38:48,320
Speaker 3: Jackson has a solid amount of continuity. Justin Herbert doesn't

803
00:38:48,360 --> 00:38:52,160
Speaker 3: have a whole lot of continuity, And so you know,

804
00:38:52,600 --> 00:38:54,120
Speaker 3: there's like a voice in the back of my mind

805
00:38:54,160 --> 00:38:57,759
Speaker 3: like could this guy take a step back in year two?

806
00:38:58,360 --> 00:39:00,360
Speaker 3: And so there is some fear of the unknown. But

807
00:39:00,400 --> 00:39:04,839
Speaker 3: that's just trying to examine the whole spectrum of potential outcomes,

808
00:39:05,840 --> 00:39:09,040
Speaker 3: because I mean, I love the kid was out there balling.

809
00:39:09,200 --> 00:39:12,759
Speaker 3: He's got pimples. You know, he's the only player in

810
00:39:12,800 --> 00:39:16,600
Speaker 3: the only quarterback in the NFL with like legit acne

811
00:39:17,040 --> 00:39:19,320
Speaker 3: and he's so young, and he was out there slinging.

812
00:39:19,560 --> 00:39:21,160
Speaker 3: He was a lot of fun to watch last year.

813
00:39:22,360 --> 00:39:22,600
Speaker 4: Yeah.

814
00:39:22,640 --> 00:39:26,080
Speaker 5: Man, that's it's that's Blade Herbert and negative five points

815
00:39:26,120 --> 00:39:26,959
Speaker 5: for that league.

816
00:39:27,040 --> 00:39:31,960
Speaker 2: Right, Hey, maybe he wears makeup, man, you know, no, man,

817
00:39:31,960 --> 00:39:34,320
Speaker 2: he might want to you know, get a little conceiled

818
00:39:34,320 --> 00:39:35,239
Speaker 2: around when he goes out.

819
00:39:35,320 --> 00:39:38,759
Speaker 1: But uh, Sean, I mean Evan mentioned it.

820
00:39:38,800 --> 00:39:40,719
Speaker 2: That's really the only concern where Herbert is just like

821
00:39:41,160 --> 00:39:46,279
Speaker 2: the unknown, right because from my vantage point, exceeded expectations in.

822
00:39:46,320 --> 00:39:48,000
Speaker 1: Year one and I went at this defense.

823
00:39:48,040 --> 00:39:50,600
Speaker 2: I mean, yes, you're gonna have Bosa back, but there's

824
00:39:50,640 --> 00:39:53,200
Speaker 2: a lot of turnover on the defense to where I'm

825
00:39:53,200 --> 00:39:54,960
Speaker 2: not like they lost a lot of talent, even though

826
00:39:55,000 --> 00:39:57,400
Speaker 2: there was guys that probably had to go, like Hayward.

827
00:39:57,840 --> 00:40:00,360
Speaker 2: I mean, their starters at corner of what can and

828
00:40:00,840 --> 00:40:03,520
Speaker 2: Davis and the rookie. Now it's Samuel and you know

829
00:40:03,600 --> 00:40:05,640
Speaker 2: Derwin James coming back. But how good is he going

830
00:40:05,680 --> 00:40:09,160
Speaker 2: to be? You know, linebacker? You've lost a lot of

831
00:40:09,239 --> 00:40:13,000
Speaker 2: these past couple of years. So I mean, am I

832
00:40:13,040 --> 00:40:14,800
Speaker 2: wrong for thinking that he's gonna be some shootouts?

833
00:40:14,880 --> 00:40:15,080
Speaker 4: Yeah?

834
00:40:16,040 --> 00:40:16,279
Speaker 1: Yeah?

835
00:40:16,360 --> 00:40:18,760
Speaker 2: Yeah? Am I wrong thinking there's gonna be some shootouts?

836
00:40:18,800 --> 00:40:20,440
Speaker 2: And what do you think of turnover.

837
00:40:20,600 --> 00:40:22,759
Speaker 5: You, Yeah, I think that that's that's his ceiling, right

838
00:40:22,800 --> 00:40:25,480
Speaker 5: as if the defense takes a step back. Durham James

839
00:40:25,480 --> 00:40:28,239
Speaker 5: gets hurt in week one again, like that's gonna be

840
00:40:28,440 --> 00:40:30,799
Speaker 5: a ceiling season from him. And you know, I think

841
00:40:30,880 --> 00:40:34,440
Speaker 5: long term, like this offense will be better under Joe Lombardi.

842
00:40:34,480 --> 00:40:36,440
Speaker 5: I think he's gonna get the most out of Austin Eckler,

843
00:40:36,760 --> 00:40:39,400
Speaker 5: He's gonna get the most out of Mike Williams. I

844
00:40:39,400 --> 00:40:42,080
Speaker 5: think Jared Cook is a solid, you know, short term

845
00:40:42,120 --> 00:40:44,520
Speaker 5: replacement for Hunter Henry, so I'm not too worried about that.

846
00:40:45,239 --> 00:40:48,320
Speaker 5: But you know, Evan mentioned the continuity, you know, heading

847
00:40:48,320 --> 00:40:51,200
Speaker 5: into year two, he might get off to a slow start,

848
00:40:51,360 --> 00:40:54,120
Speaker 5: so well, well, this is probably better long term. He

849
00:40:54,239 --> 00:40:56,760
Speaker 5: could have some bumps early in the season. So that's

850
00:40:57,120 --> 00:41:00,280
Speaker 5: essentially why I still think Russell Wilson's a tier above.

851
00:41:00,320 --> 00:41:02,560
Speaker 5: I just think Russ has a higher four ceiling combo,

852
00:41:03,000 --> 00:41:06,000
Speaker 5: whereas you know, Herbert obviously there's a lot of potential there.

853
00:41:06,000 --> 00:41:06,719
Speaker 4: What's not to like.

854
00:41:06,760 --> 00:41:09,400
Speaker 5: The offensive line is gonna be better, but just I

855
00:41:09,520 --> 00:41:12,000
Speaker 5: like a guy like Russ where if this offense does

856
00:41:12,040 --> 00:41:14,400
Speaker 5: click and they have you know, a more pass heavy attack.

857
00:41:14,480 --> 00:41:16,759
Speaker 5: I think Russ is a better bet for you know,

858
00:41:16,840 --> 00:41:17,880
Speaker 5: top five numbers.

859
00:41:18,120 --> 00:41:20,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, and that's actually a great point when you said that,

860
00:41:20,239 --> 00:41:22,560
Speaker 2: I woked. I look up the schedule when the first

861
00:41:22,560 --> 00:41:25,760
Speaker 2: week the Chargers are at Washington. That's a tough defense

862
00:41:26,000 --> 00:41:27,360
Speaker 2: and it's across the country.

863
00:41:27,480 --> 00:41:32,279
Speaker 3: You can't you even start Justin Herbert Nope, twelve twelve team. No,

864
00:41:32,320 --> 00:41:34,839
Speaker 3: I don't think you. No, I mean Oddsmaker, where would

865
00:41:34,880 --> 00:41:37,720
Speaker 3: you have him ranked that week? Probably like fifteen.

866
00:41:37,400 --> 00:41:39,359
Speaker 4: Or probably not that low.

867
00:41:39,400 --> 00:41:42,320
Speaker 5: He'd probably still be a fringe maybe like QB twelve

868
00:41:42,400 --> 00:41:45,680
Speaker 5: or thirteen. But yeah, he's definitely half to downgrade him

869
00:41:45,719 --> 00:41:46,440
Speaker 5: at Washington.

870
00:41:47,000 --> 00:41:50,440
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm starting, I mean as Patrick over Justin Herbert

871
00:41:50,480 --> 00:41:51,080
Speaker 3: in week one.

872
00:41:53,080 --> 00:41:55,000
Speaker 5: I think I would stick with Herbert there, but it's

873
00:41:55,000 --> 00:41:56,560
Speaker 5: probably closer than people think.

874
00:41:57,840 --> 00:41:58,600
Speaker 1: I think I would.

875
00:41:58,680 --> 00:42:01,440
Speaker 2: I'm the Washington defense is like one of those defenses

876
00:42:01,440 --> 00:42:03,799
Speaker 2: that's on my list of just do not fuck with

877
00:42:03,840 --> 00:42:04,560
Speaker 2: this defense.

878
00:42:04,719 --> 00:42:07,759
Speaker 1: Like it's just like I'm just not gonna do it.

879
00:42:07,800 --> 00:42:10,680
Speaker 2: And like matchups are overrated I think in fantasy in general,

880
00:42:10,719 --> 00:42:14,319
Speaker 2: and we can probably spend a whole episode talking and

881
00:42:14,400 --> 00:42:18,040
Speaker 2: more talking about that, but quarterbacks still are the most

882
00:42:18,080 --> 00:42:22,200
Speaker 2: most predictable positions. You know they're getting the most reps

883
00:42:22,200 --> 00:42:25,640
Speaker 2: against certain matchups. So like that Washington defense, I mean,

884
00:42:25,680 --> 00:42:27,040
Speaker 2: they have it. They have it all, they have passed

885
00:42:27,040 --> 00:42:29,600
Speaker 2: for stay have everything. I wouldn't mess with it. I

886
00:42:29,600 --> 00:42:32,799
Speaker 2: think you're drafting Herbert. You're drafting him starting in week

887
00:42:32,800 --> 00:42:35,640
Speaker 2: two against Dallas and then they're going.

888
00:42:35,400 --> 00:42:36,520
Speaker 1: To Arrowhead in week three.

889
00:42:36,560 --> 00:42:39,640
Speaker 2: That's a tough you know, place to play and a

890
00:42:39,760 --> 00:42:44,279
Speaker 2: tough defense to play at home in Arrowhead, right, it

891
00:42:44,360 --> 00:42:46,879
Speaker 2: could be a shootout. Then you got the Raiders, then

892
00:42:46,880 --> 00:42:48,759
Speaker 2: you get the Browns, who will be improved. But like

893
00:42:48,960 --> 00:42:50,640
Speaker 2: it's a tough schedule. I mean you got the Browns

894
00:42:50,680 --> 00:42:52,799
Speaker 2: and the Ravens defenses who should be improved in five

895
00:42:52,840 --> 00:42:55,799
Speaker 2: and six. So you could have a kind of not

896
00:42:56,040 --> 00:43:00,120
Speaker 2: a QB six worthy first and then there's a I

897
00:43:00,760 --> 00:43:03,400
Speaker 2: believe in week seven, So you could you could start

898
00:43:03,440 --> 00:43:05,680
Speaker 2: Herbert and you're in week eight and you may have

899
00:43:05,719 --> 00:43:08,040
Speaker 2: only gotten like two to three quality starts out of him.

900
00:43:08,440 --> 00:43:11,000
Speaker 2: So that is something to think about. I think when

901
00:43:11,040 --> 00:43:13,239
Speaker 2: when you're going to draft Justin Herbert, and I think

902
00:43:13,280 --> 00:43:15,520
Speaker 2: that's where kind of okay, you're looking at some of

903
00:43:15,560 --> 00:43:18,920
Speaker 2: these other guys and they're upside and Evan, I know

904
00:43:18,960 --> 00:43:22,440
Speaker 2: you have hurts above Aaron Rodgers and I do want

905
00:43:22,440 --> 00:43:24,160
Speaker 2: to talk about it because I love that call. But

906
00:43:24,360 --> 00:43:26,239
Speaker 2: I'm just gonna go in order the adp here. So

907
00:43:26,320 --> 00:43:30,759
Speaker 2: let's talk about Rogers. Like in the outline, I have

908
00:43:30,840 --> 00:43:33,000
Speaker 2: written down quarterback eight Aaron Rodgers.

909
00:43:33,120 --> 00:43:36,480
Speaker 1: What the fuck? So tell me what the fuck? Like?

910
00:43:36,520 --> 00:43:37,800
Speaker 1: What do we doing them?

911
00:43:37,880 --> 00:43:40,880
Speaker 3: I think it's really simple to lay this out, like

912
00:43:41,200 --> 00:43:43,239
Speaker 3: I'm not fully confident that he's going to be there

913
00:43:43,320 --> 00:43:46,320
Speaker 3: week one. I don't. I had a friend in town

914
00:43:46,600 --> 00:43:49,000
Speaker 3: and we were just hanging out all weekend, so I

915
00:43:49,040 --> 00:43:53,600
Speaker 3: didn't I wasn't like intensely studying the news, but I

916
00:43:53,600 --> 00:43:58,080
Speaker 3: thought I saw a report from Schefter that said that

917
00:43:58,200 --> 00:44:02,160
Speaker 3: Aaron Rodgers still not planning to report week one, and

918
00:44:02,200 --> 00:44:05,640
Speaker 3: then I saw a bunch of garbage on social media, like,

919
00:44:06,120 --> 00:44:09,200
Speaker 3: you know, he liked something on on Twitter, so that

920
00:44:09,239 --> 00:44:11,440
Speaker 3: makes it means he's going to be back, you know. Like,

921
00:44:11,640 --> 00:44:13,680
Speaker 3: so I don't know. I kind of tend to trust

922
00:44:13,760 --> 00:44:17,359
Speaker 3: Schefter over that kind of stuff. Uh So that's that's

923
00:44:17,440 --> 00:44:20,040
Speaker 3: where I'm at right now. I mean, you know, the

924
00:44:20,080 --> 00:44:25,040
Speaker 3: guy just got married. He he clearly does doesn't feel

925
00:44:25,080 --> 00:44:29,320
Speaker 3: great about making the Packers management and their fake owner

926
00:44:29,560 --> 00:44:34,479
Speaker 3: Mark Murphy and Brian Gudikuntz their GM making these guys rich.

927
00:44:35,360 --> 00:44:37,320
Speaker 3: And you know, he could go be the host of

928
00:44:37,400 --> 00:44:40,920
Speaker 3: Jeopardy and hang out with his new wife. And I

929
00:44:40,960 --> 00:44:43,400
Speaker 3: mean he's like sort of an intellectual guy, Carson Palmer,

930
00:44:43,520 --> 00:44:46,200
Speaker 3: sort of an intellectual guy. And he he did you know,

931
00:44:46,239 --> 00:44:48,480
Speaker 3: he kind of did you kind of did that and

932
00:44:48,560 --> 00:44:51,520
Speaker 3: forced his way out. So I certainly wouldn't put it

933
00:44:51,560 --> 00:44:53,759
Speaker 3: past Aaron Rodgers. And if he did it, more and

934
00:44:53,800 --> 00:44:56,000
Speaker 3: more power to him. Take a year off and come

935
00:44:56,040 --> 00:44:57,920
Speaker 3: back and play a couple more years for you know,

936
00:44:58,000 --> 00:45:00,719
Speaker 3: in a situation that you you actually feel comfortable in.

937
00:45:01,080 --> 00:45:06,240
Speaker 5: Yeah, Andrew Luck was another cerebral lack that retired down yeoth.

938
00:45:06,520 --> 00:45:10,000
Speaker 3: Garry Sanders is a real cerebral guy. Calvin Johnson even is.

939
00:45:09,960 --> 00:45:14,640
Speaker 2: I think, Yeah, I was gonna ask starring with you, Evan.

940
00:45:15,320 --> 00:45:18,239
Speaker 2: Aaron Rodgers, he's a qbate by ADP right now. But

941
00:45:18,280 --> 00:45:20,480
Speaker 2: it's all over the place. You're in a high stakes

942
00:45:20,560 --> 00:45:27,160
Speaker 2: league starting one quarterback. How far does Aaron Rodgers have

943
00:45:27,200 --> 00:45:30,080
Speaker 2: to fall, given what we know now for you to

944
00:45:30,120 --> 00:45:32,320
Speaker 2: take them?

945
00:45:32,440 --> 00:45:35,839
Speaker 3: Well, you know the reality is also that he could

946
00:45:35,840 --> 00:45:38,120
Speaker 3: go back to scoring like he did in the previous

947
00:45:38,160 --> 00:45:41,560
Speaker 3: four seasons before last year. I mean, the recency bias

948
00:45:41,640 --> 00:45:44,440
Speaker 3: is really strong here, and it seems like a virtual

949
00:45:44,560 --> 00:45:47,319
Speaker 3: lock that he's going to come back and produce like that.

950
00:45:47,360 --> 00:45:49,960
Speaker 3: But he had not played like that in a while.

951
00:45:52,160 --> 00:45:55,000
Speaker 3: And they really didn't do a whole lot to upgrade

952
00:45:55,040 --> 00:45:57,360
Speaker 3: his receivering corps again, did they. I mean, they've got

953
00:45:57,760 --> 00:46:03,200
Speaker 3: what they added Amari Roses coming back. Oh yeah, a

954
00:46:03,239 --> 00:46:06,719
Speaker 3: big funches. I mean that's the difference right there, right,

955
00:46:07,400 --> 00:46:10,320
Speaker 3: they didn't really do a whole lot to help him. Again,

956
00:46:10,719 --> 00:46:12,839
Speaker 3: I wouldn't take him. I just let somebody else take them.

957
00:46:13,000 --> 00:46:15,160
Speaker 1: Sean, would you take him? Or and how far are

958
00:46:15,200 --> 00:46:15,879
Speaker 1: you going to fall before?

959
00:46:16,200 --> 00:46:17,920
Speaker 5: I think that Rogers would have to fall to like

960
00:46:18,000 --> 00:46:20,759
Speaker 5: QB twelve for me to consider him, just because there's

961
00:46:20,840 --> 00:46:23,200
Speaker 5: there's a lot of uncertainty right now. If I had

962
00:46:23,239 --> 00:46:25,160
Speaker 5: to bet on it, I would say he's gonna, you know,

963
00:46:25,239 --> 00:46:27,600
Speaker 5: start Week one for the Packers. But there's just too

964
00:46:27,640 --> 00:46:30,880
Speaker 5: many different scenarios where he either sits out in the

965
00:46:30,920 --> 00:46:33,920
Speaker 5: season or you know, sits out the entire season. We

966
00:46:33,920 --> 00:46:36,920
Speaker 5: don't really know. But but aside from that, you know,

967
00:46:36,920 --> 00:46:39,239
Speaker 5: Evan mentioned it he could regress to what we saw

968
00:46:39,320 --> 00:46:42,120
Speaker 5: the previous few seasons. He had a nine point one

969
00:46:42,560 --> 00:46:46,000
Speaker 5: touchdown percentage last year, so that's that's unsustainable. That's gonna

970
00:46:46,000 --> 00:46:49,560
Speaker 5: come down. I actually do like the Mariy Rodgers pick.

971
00:46:49,600 --> 00:46:52,480
Speaker 5: I think he could be a potential Randall Cobb replacement,

972
00:46:52,560 --> 00:46:55,400
Speaker 5: something they've been missing the past couple of seasons. But

973
00:46:55,560 --> 00:46:59,320
Speaker 5: just when it comes to drafting quarterbacks in this range,

974
00:46:59,320 --> 00:47:02,080
Speaker 5: there's just no reason to take him. I think you

975
00:47:02,120 --> 00:47:05,520
Speaker 5: can take a guy like Cooper cup or you know,

976
00:47:05,719 --> 00:47:09,839
Speaker 5: Chris Carson, you know, key guys at critical positions where

977
00:47:10,080 --> 00:47:13,680
Speaker 5: you don't have many backup plans after Rogers. So I

978
00:47:13,719 --> 00:47:16,120
Speaker 5: would just punt Rogers completely. But he would have to

979
00:47:16,160 --> 00:47:18,560
Speaker 5: fall like pretty late, like QB twelve for me to

980
00:47:18,600 --> 00:47:19,200
Speaker 5: consider him.

981
00:47:19,880 --> 00:47:21,759
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think I would. I would take him. I'll

982
00:47:21,760 --> 00:47:22,319
Speaker 1: put it this way.

983
00:47:22,400 --> 00:47:24,799
Speaker 2: It depends on the week size, but I wouldn't take

984
00:47:24,880 --> 00:47:28,680
Speaker 2: him as my intended starting quarterback right now. So, like

985
00:47:29,120 --> 00:47:31,040
Speaker 2: I guess, in a twelve team league, if he falls,

986
00:47:31,080 --> 00:47:34,160
Speaker 2: you know, past QB thirteen or something like that, I

987
00:47:34,280 --> 00:47:36,160
Speaker 2: take a shot on him. I think he has enough

988
00:47:36,200 --> 00:47:40,000
Speaker 2: upside to warrant using a roster spot on your bench

989
00:47:40,719 --> 00:47:43,200
Speaker 2: to hold him because he could give you QB one up.

990
00:47:43,200 --> 00:47:45,080
Speaker 1: That's another guy with QB one upside.

991
00:47:45,280 --> 00:47:47,840
Speaker 2: I mean, you know, even though he doesn't have he

992
00:47:47,880 --> 00:47:51,200
Speaker 2: has a much lower floor. But that's just how I'm

993
00:47:51,239 --> 00:47:53,120
Speaker 2: kind of looking at it and almost forgot.

994
00:47:53,640 --> 00:47:54,759
Speaker 3: It was like, it sounds like you're not going to

995
00:47:54,800 --> 00:47:55,600
Speaker 3: be getting them, Raven.

996
00:47:55,800 --> 00:47:57,120
Speaker 1: Yeah, no I'm not, but you never know.

997
00:47:57,200 --> 00:47:59,520
Speaker 2: That's what I'm just saying for people out there, because

998
00:47:59,640 --> 00:48:01,200
Speaker 2: a lot of people are gonna listen to the show

999
00:48:01,680 --> 00:48:04,200
Speaker 2: and they're gonna hear, you know, Evan Silva thing I'm

1000
00:48:04,239 --> 00:48:07,319
Speaker 2: not taking. They're gonna hear Sean Kerner say I'm not

1001
00:48:07,360 --> 00:48:09,520
Speaker 2: taking them to QB twelve, and maybe he does his

1002
00:48:09,719 --> 00:48:10,840
Speaker 2: hip he does drop a little bit.

1003
00:48:10,840 --> 00:48:13,080
Speaker 3: No, So I'm like a level headed stance. If you

1004
00:48:13,280 --> 00:48:15,799
Speaker 3: just look at the board, QB twelve is like the

1005
00:48:15,840 --> 00:48:18,120
Speaker 3: perfect spot really because it's like when you start to

1006
00:48:18,120 --> 00:48:21,400
Speaker 3: get into like Tannehill, Stafford Baker Mayfield, you know, like

1007
00:48:22,000 --> 00:48:24,120
Speaker 3: guys that you pretty much know. I mean, they can

1008
00:48:24,160 --> 00:48:26,360
Speaker 3: have good weeks, but they're probably they're not You're not

1009
00:48:26,440 --> 00:48:28,040
Speaker 3: gonna be able to start them every week, you know,

1010
00:48:28,320 --> 00:48:30,400
Speaker 3: Like what about like Trey Lance, I mean Trey Lance

1011
00:48:30,440 --> 00:48:33,080
Speaker 3: could light this up in year one. I know he's

1012
00:48:33,120 --> 00:48:35,960
Speaker 3: we're talking about top twelve quarterbacks here, But those kind

1013
00:48:36,000 --> 00:48:39,319
Speaker 3: of guys are you know, really justin fields. I think

1014
00:48:39,360 --> 00:48:42,840
Speaker 3: even Trevor Lawrence, these guys have a chance to finish

1015
00:48:42,840 --> 00:48:44,080
Speaker 3: in the top twelve, all of them.

1016
00:48:44,120 --> 00:48:46,399
Speaker 2: Yeah, if you can run, you know, if you can

1017
00:48:46,520 --> 00:48:49,000
Speaker 2: run and you're gonna start, just how how many starts

1018
00:48:49,000 --> 00:48:50,600
Speaker 2: are you gonna make? You know that that's really the

1019
00:48:50,600 --> 00:48:52,239
Speaker 2: only thing. It's kind of like, I mean, we even

1020
00:48:52,239 --> 00:48:54,719
Speaker 2: saw it with Taysom Hill. We saw it with Jalen Hurts.

1021
00:48:54,840 --> 00:48:56,600
Speaker 2: You saw it that the year before Lamar. It's like,

1022
00:48:56,960 --> 00:48:59,160
Speaker 2: if you can move around, you're gonna you're gonna be

1023
00:48:59,160 --> 00:49:01,759
Speaker 2: able to put up point. So yeah, I don't think

1024
00:49:01,920 --> 00:49:03,719
Speaker 2: I definitely don't think you reach on Rogers. I don't

1025
00:49:03,719 --> 00:49:08,480
Speaker 2: think you take him at adp Well. Deshaun Watson, oh god,

1026
00:49:09,320 --> 00:49:11,399
Speaker 2: he's you know, he's not even in the outline because

1027
00:49:11,400 --> 00:49:12,520
Speaker 2: he's not on the top twelve.

1028
00:49:12,520 --> 00:49:16,120
Speaker 1: But uh, what are your thoughts on Deshaun Evan real quick?

1029
00:49:16,560 --> 00:49:19,960
Speaker 3: I mean it's there's been like no news on him

1030
00:49:20,000 --> 00:49:22,600
Speaker 3: for a really long time. You know, there's been like

1031
00:49:22,640 --> 00:49:28,239
Speaker 3: no developments. So my assumption has been SA, no way

1032
00:49:28,280 --> 00:49:33,279
Speaker 3: this guy's playing. But there's been no you know, suspension,

1033
00:49:33,440 --> 00:49:37,399
Speaker 3: suspension announcement, there's been no I don't want to get

1034
00:49:37,440 --> 00:49:39,520
Speaker 3: into it because I'm not an expert at all in

1035
00:49:39,560 --> 00:49:43,560
Speaker 3: that area, but there's been no news recently. Maybe we'll

1036
00:49:43,560 --> 00:49:45,840
Speaker 3: get some as as training camp starts.

1037
00:49:46,640 --> 00:49:49,120
Speaker 2: Omake, I'll ask you this then real quick on DeShawn,

1038
00:49:49,320 --> 00:49:52,080
Speaker 2: just like give me throw out me, throw me out

1039
00:49:52,120 --> 00:49:57,120
Speaker 2: of probability. Uh odds that Deshaun Watson finishes as a

1040
00:49:57,239 --> 00:49:59,920
Speaker 2: top twelve quarterback given all we know right now.

1041
00:50:00,560 --> 00:50:01,359
Speaker 4: No clue. I would.

1042
00:50:01,400 --> 00:50:05,400
Speaker 5: I put it at like fifteen percent range fifteen to

1043
00:50:05,440 --> 00:50:08,960
Speaker 5: twenty percent. So I'm staying away from him. But like

1044
00:50:09,000 --> 00:50:11,359
Speaker 5: when it comes to Best Ball, if you can get

1045
00:50:11,440 --> 00:50:13,840
Speaker 5: him as your QB three, he seems like a no brainer.

1046
00:50:13,880 --> 00:50:16,920
Speaker 5: But there's just a ton of uncertainty there and it

1047
00:50:16,920 --> 00:50:20,400
Speaker 5: shows in his ADP. But yeah, I feel like the

1048
00:50:20,440 --> 00:50:24,120
Speaker 5: past couple years I need a law degree and epidemology

1049
00:50:24,360 --> 00:50:28,799
Speaker 5: degree to figure out these odds. But yeah, this is

1050
00:50:29,400 --> 00:50:32,239
Speaker 5: past my expertise at this so I've been avoiding him

1051
00:50:32,400 --> 00:50:34,720
Speaker 5: unless it's like, you know, a Best Ball draft where

1052
00:50:34,840 --> 00:50:36,239
Speaker 5: you can get him super super late.

1053
00:50:37,200 --> 00:50:39,239
Speaker 1: I was moving to Tom Brady. He's a QB nine.

1054
00:50:39,280 --> 00:50:41,600
Speaker 2: I know you, Evan, you like Jalen Hurts ahead of

1055
00:50:41,600 --> 00:50:44,600
Speaker 2: Brady too, But what do you expect from Brady this year?

1056
00:50:44,640 --> 00:50:46,719
Speaker 2: I mean, I guess the question is just how long

1057
00:50:46,719 --> 00:50:47,480
Speaker 2: can he keep doing this?

1058
00:50:47,920 --> 00:50:50,279
Speaker 3: Right? I think he'll be solid. I think he'll be

1059
00:50:50,520 --> 00:50:52,160
Speaker 3: you know, he's not going to give you anything with

1060
00:50:52,239 --> 00:50:57,960
Speaker 3: his legs. Godwin and Evans both experienced injuries at times.

1061
00:50:57,960 --> 00:50:59,960
Speaker 3: They didn't miss a ton of combined games. God wouldn't

1062
00:51:00,160 --> 00:51:02,400
Speaker 3: for I don't think Edvans missed that any He might

1063
00:51:02,520 --> 00:51:06,560
Speaker 3: miss one, but they should be back healthier. Gronk, I think,

1064
00:51:06,960 --> 00:51:09,600
Speaker 3: you know, he looked better as the season progressed, and

1065
00:51:09,640 --> 00:51:12,560
Speaker 3: then in the Super Bowl he looked awfully good. So

1066
00:51:12,920 --> 00:51:14,719
Speaker 3: you know, maybe, and he's still only thirty two. I

1067
00:51:14,719 --> 00:51:17,200
Speaker 3: mean people think he's like forty. He's thirty two years old,

1068
00:51:17,200 --> 00:51:22,040
Speaker 3: Like that's pretty young. You know, the entire offensive lineback.

1069
00:51:23,840 --> 00:51:26,320
Speaker 3: You know, he's he's right on that on that QB

1070
00:51:26,480 --> 00:51:29,520
Speaker 3: nine to QB QB twelve fringe, I think, but at

1071
00:51:29,600 --> 00:51:32,319
Speaker 3: the top of it, because he's gonna throw a lot

1072
00:51:32,360 --> 00:51:36,799
Speaker 3: of touchdown passes and it's and it's Mike Evans has

1073
00:51:36,840 --> 00:51:41,680
Speaker 3: been you know, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Rob Gronkowski, Antonio Brown,

1074
00:51:41,760 --> 00:51:43,919
Speaker 3: who I think is actually a great middle round pick

1075
00:51:43,960 --> 00:51:47,279
Speaker 3: this year. I see Oddsmaker shaking his head. But all

1076
00:51:47,320 --> 00:51:51,640
Speaker 3: these guys had been like above well above expectation touchdown

1077
00:51:51,760 --> 00:51:55,879
Speaker 3: rate scorers throughout their career. So I mean, I think

1078
00:51:55,880 --> 00:51:58,719
Speaker 3: Tom Brady is going to be rock solid and he's

1079
00:51:58,719 --> 00:52:00,520
Speaker 3: gonna throw a lot of touchdown pass says. You know,

1080
00:52:00,520 --> 00:52:04,000
Speaker 3: I really have developed a bias for drafting quarterbacks that

1081
00:52:04,040 --> 00:52:06,239
Speaker 3: can move, and so I don't think I'm gonna end

1082
00:52:06,320 --> 00:52:09,319
Speaker 3: up personally with a ton of them. But I mean,

1083
00:52:09,360 --> 00:52:12,240
Speaker 3: you you can build solid stack. Mike Evans isn't terribly

1084
00:52:12,719 --> 00:52:16,520
Speaker 3: expensive this year, Godwin is you know, right around wide

1085
00:52:16,560 --> 00:52:20,960
Speaker 3: receiver twenty. I think that's not terribly expensive. Gronk is

1086
00:52:21,760 --> 00:52:26,120
Speaker 3: very cheap, and Brady isn't you know, overly expensive either.

1087
00:52:26,160 --> 00:52:27,520
Speaker 3: So I mean you can try to build like a

1088
00:52:27,520 --> 00:52:31,680
Speaker 3: buck stack. I just I lean toward the movement quarterbacks.

1089
00:52:32,200 --> 00:52:35,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, I also have to to take hurts over Brady

1090
00:52:35,680 --> 00:52:39,600
Speaker 2: and then it starts to get you know, Cloudy and

1091
00:52:39,640 --> 00:52:43,000
Speaker 2: another guy would talk about Tannehill shortly, but but Sean

1092
00:52:43,320 --> 00:52:46,040
Speaker 2: any any quick thoughts on Brady just you know, what

1093
00:52:46,360 --> 00:52:48,799
Speaker 2: do you kind of expect out of him relation to

1094
00:52:48,840 --> 00:52:49,400
Speaker 2: those guys.

1095
00:52:49,520 --> 00:52:52,040
Speaker 5: I can't hate anybody that gets him QB nine. I

1096
00:52:52,040 --> 00:52:55,439
Speaker 5: feel like we can't really underestimate his ceiling this year.

1097
00:52:55,920 --> 00:52:58,279
Speaker 5: Uh and apparent he's playing with the torn MCL last

1098
00:52:58,320 --> 00:53:00,959
Speaker 5: year as well. But it's just what he did after

1099
00:53:01,000 --> 00:53:04,720
Speaker 5: spending a couple decades in an offense and then going

1100
00:53:04,760 --> 00:53:07,840
Speaker 5: to Tampa Bay and doing that. You know, I have

1101
00:53:08,000 --> 00:53:10,760
Speaker 5: flashbacks of when Peyton Manning did that. He went to Denver.

1102
00:53:11,360 --> 00:53:13,160
Speaker 5: First season, he was really good, you know, forty seven

1103
00:53:13,200 --> 00:53:16,120
Speaker 5: hr yards and thirty seven touchdowns, and the next season

1104
00:53:16,239 --> 00:53:19,800
Speaker 5: way better, fifty five hundred yards and fifty five touchdowns.

1105
00:53:19,800 --> 00:53:23,440
Speaker 5: So I'm saying, like, don't unterestimate Brady's potential for that,

1106
00:53:23,480 --> 00:53:25,520
Speaker 5: because I was shaking ahead when everyone was talking about

1107
00:53:25,560 --> 00:53:28,760
Speaker 5: these receivers, the tight ends they brought in, Jio Bernard,

1108
00:53:28,880 --> 00:53:32,320
Speaker 5: like everybody there for Brady to just have a monster season.

1109
00:53:32,360 --> 00:53:35,120
Speaker 5: So if you get in at QB nine, you know,

1110
00:53:35,200 --> 00:53:36,319
Speaker 5: I'm not going to make fun of that.

1111
00:53:36,520 --> 00:53:37,000
Speaker 4: I think and.

1112
00:53:37,400 --> 00:53:39,479
Speaker 3: People talk about, you know, hey, they're bringing back twenty

1113
00:53:39,520 --> 00:53:42,600
Speaker 3: two of twenty two starters. Look at the depth that

1114
00:53:42,640 --> 00:53:45,359
Speaker 3: they have at the skill positions. They've got, you know,

1115
00:53:45,400 --> 00:53:48,560
Speaker 3: not just those frontline guys, but they've got like Tyler Johnson,

1116
00:53:49,440 --> 00:53:51,880
Speaker 3: you know, might be a starting slot receiver caliber player

1117
00:53:51,920 --> 00:53:54,919
Speaker 3: in the league. Scottie Miller who had some really big

1118
00:53:54,960 --> 00:53:57,560
Speaker 3: games in the first half of last year after Antonio

1119
00:53:57,719 --> 00:54:01,640
Speaker 3: after and then Antonio Brown off suspension and Scotty Miller

1120
00:54:01,719 --> 00:54:04,279
Speaker 3: kind of faded. Cameron Braid who's been you know, a pro,

1121
00:54:04,400 --> 00:54:08,600
Speaker 3: and Oj Howard's coming back. They drafted this kid, Jalen Durden,

1122
00:54:09,520 --> 00:54:13,359
Speaker 3: who may he scored nineteen touchdowns in nine games last

1123
00:54:13,440 --> 00:54:16,960
Speaker 3: year at North Texas. Nineteen receiving touchdowns in nine games.

1124
00:54:17,440 --> 00:54:20,800
Speaker 3: He's small, but he's fast and he scored I mean touchdowns.

1125
00:54:20,800 --> 00:54:23,359
Speaker 3: Scoring is good. You guys like love touchdowns like I do.

1126
00:54:23,400 --> 00:54:27,160
Speaker 5: Right, yes, yes, And so I think the only potential

1127
00:54:27,200 --> 00:54:29,520
Speaker 5: for concern is, you know, he might finally have a

1128
00:54:29,520 --> 00:54:32,920
Speaker 5: decline at forty four, but I'm not betting against him

1129
00:54:33,200 --> 00:54:37,320
Speaker 5: anytime soon. But also, this Bucks defense, you know, it's elite,

1130
00:54:37,360 --> 00:54:40,080
Speaker 5: so it could prevent shootouts. That's one of the concerns

1131
00:54:40,120 --> 00:54:42,040
Speaker 5: is this defense is so good that he might not

1132
00:54:42,160 --> 00:54:44,960
Speaker 5: have to put up thirty five forty points often so

1133
00:54:45,040 --> 00:54:47,240
Speaker 5: that's that's the only thing that I think would hinder

1134
00:54:47,239 --> 00:54:49,200
Speaker 5: his ceiling is this defense is so good.

1135
00:54:50,000 --> 00:54:52,279
Speaker 2: Yeah, And like I mean, the thing that I think

1136
00:54:52,360 --> 00:54:55,440
Speaker 2: is for me, it's like always a lot of times quarterbacks,

1137
00:54:55,440 --> 00:54:57,440
Speaker 2: it's not like a gradual declient if you make it

1138
00:54:57,480 --> 00:55:00,000
Speaker 2: this far, because there's like a survivorship bias, so it's

1139
00:55:00,080 --> 00:55:01,480
Speaker 2: kind of like you're doing good and all of a

1140
00:55:01,480 --> 00:55:04,239
Speaker 2: sudden you're just done, like like Peyton Manning kind of

1141
00:55:04,280 --> 00:55:05,480
Speaker 2: just hit him all one season.

1142
00:55:05,760 --> 00:55:07,560
Speaker 1: But the thing for me with Brady, he passes the

1143
00:55:07,560 --> 00:55:08,040
Speaker 1: eye test.

1144
00:55:08,200 --> 00:55:10,600
Speaker 2: Like even Breeze, he could kind of see the end coming,

1145
00:55:10,880 --> 00:55:14,080
Speaker 2: you know, the arm strength wasn't there, madding he knew

1146
00:55:14,080 --> 00:55:15,640
Speaker 2: he had the injury or just when was it gonna

1147
00:55:15,640 --> 00:55:18,080
Speaker 2: start affecting him. But Brady passes the eye test. He

1148
00:55:18,120 --> 00:55:21,480
Speaker 2: hasn't had any significant injury to the you know, shoulder

1149
00:55:21,600 --> 00:55:24,239
Speaker 2: arm area, like you know, he had the MCL last year,

1150
00:55:24,280 --> 00:55:26,400
Speaker 2: so it was like, it doesn't feel like the year

1151
00:55:26,480 --> 00:55:29,200
Speaker 2: he's gonna drop off a cliff. So it's not a

1152
00:55:29,239 --> 00:55:32,560
Speaker 2: sexy pick for me there at QB nine, But I'll

1153
00:55:32,560 --> 00:55:33,640
Speaker 2: make you if he falls.

1154
00:55:34,640 --> 00:55:35,719
Speaker 1: But let's talk.

1155
00:55:35,520 --> 00:55:37,359
Speaker 2: About Jamn hurts because I know Evan, you have him

1156
00:55:37,440 --> 00:55:39,799
Speaker 2: up at number eight, and I really love that.

1157
00:55:40,160 --> 00:55:41,200
Speaker 1: I love Hurts this year.

1158
00:55:41,280 --> 00:55:45,160
Speaker 2: I think he has that Lamar Jackson MVP type year

1159
00:55:45,239 --> 00:55:47,640
Speaker 2: in him, that that jump. Do you do you see

1160
00:55:47,640 --> 00:55:50,200
Speaker 2: that kind of ceiling for Gerleen Hurts Evan.

1161
00:55:52,719 --> 00:55:55,400
Speaker 3: Yeah, I bet him real early in the offseason, like

1162
00:55:55,400 --> 00:55:57,640
Speaker 3: one hundred to one MVP, then eighty to one m

1163
00:55:57,680 --> 00:55:59,520
Speaker 3: v P, sixty to one MVP. I think he got

1164
00:55:59,600 --> 00:56:02,400
Speaker 3: up to like forty to one or maybe fifty to

1165
00:56:02,400 --> 00:56:07,319
Speaker 3: one either way. I'm not betting that anymore, but he was.

1166
00:56:08,040 --> 00:56:10,160
Speaker 3: But I mean I I that's how I kind of

1167
00:56:10,239 --> 00:56:14,799
Speaker 3: envisioned it as a Lamar Jackson potential situation where he

1168
00:56:14,800 --> 00:56:17,840
Speaker 3: could just run for a ton of yards because the

1169
00:56:17,880 --> 00:56:19,960
Speaker 3: Eagles are arguing they're kind of like in the Dallas

1170
00:56:19,960 --> 00:56:22,839
Speaker 3: situation where they're getting back, you know, most of not all,

1171
00:56:22,840 --> 00:56:26,759
Speaker 3: of their offensive line, and then the backups got experienced

1172
00:56:26,840 --> 00:56:30,440
Speaker 3: last year, and they're bringing in Nick Sirianni as the

1173
00:56:30,480 --> 00:56:33,240
Speaker 3: head coach, and he had some really successful running games

1174
00:56:33,680 --> 00:56:37,759
Speaker 3: in Indianapolis. I just I think they could have a

1175
00:56:37,800 --> 00:56:41,560
Speaker 3: potentially dominant rushing attack. And then he's got I mean,

1176
00:56:41,600 --> 00:56:43,719
Speaker 3: he's he's got some big I think he's got some

1177
00:56:43,760 --> 00:56:47,560
Speaker 3: accuracy concerns, but and he's had those for a really

1178
00:56:47,560 --> 00:56:50,120
Speaker 3: long time since he really entered college football. I remember

1179
00:56:50,239 --> 00:56:53,120
Speaker 3: watching him play like as a young player at Alabama

1180
00:56:53,360 --> 00:56:57,240
Speaker 3: and he wound up transferring to Oklahoma and lighting lighting

1181
00:56:57,280 --> 00:57:00,359
Speaker 3: it on fire under under Lincoln Riley. But he's never

1182
00:57:00,360 --> 00:57:02,520
Speaker 3: been the most accurate passer. But he's like been a

1183
00:57:02,560 --> 00:57:05,800
Speaker 3: big play passer. And you know, you've got Jalen Rieger,

1184
00:57:05,880 --> 00:57:08,600
Speaker 3: the first round pick coming back Dallas Goddard. I mean,

1185
00:57:08,640 --> 00:57:11,399
Speaker 3: I think the ceiling is, you know, is really really

1186
00:57:11,480 --> 00:57:16,080
Speaker 3: high for him. Travis Fulham flashed last year and then

1187
00:57:16,160 --> 00:57:19,520
Speaker 3: Devonte Smith, you know, won the Heisman and the Blittanikoff Award.

1188
00:57:20,040 --> 00:57:23,200
Speaker 3: You know, if everything goes right, then I think that

1189
00:57:23,360 --> 00:57:26,920
Speaker 3: Jalen Hurts could have a really really big statistical season.

1190
00:57:27,880 --> 00:57:29,960
Speaker 3: I don't I don't know about him winning MVP. You know,

1191
00:57:30,000 --> 00:57:31,800
Speaker 3: they they probably have to get like ten win. They

1192
00:57:31,800 --> 00:57:33,960
Speaker 3: probably have to go like ten and seven, I would

1193
00:57:34,000 --> 00:57:36,200
Speaker 3: say for and then he'd have to absolutely crush it.

1194
00:57:36,280 --> 00:57:39,560
Speaker 3: But yeah, that's kind of where I am with Jalen

1195
00:57:39,600 --> 00:57:42,200
Speaker 3: hurt said this, This ceiling is really high because of

1196
00:57:42,200 --> 00:57:45,000
Speaker 3: his dual threat ability. And then if if they can

1197
00:57:45,040 --> 00:57:47,439
Speaker 3: somehow stay healthy. They've been like the most injured team,

1198
00:57:47,680 --> 00:57:49,520
Speaker 3: you know, one of the five most injured teams in

1199
00:57:49,560 --> 00:57:51,680
Speaker 3: the league for the past three or four years.

1200
00:57:52,240 --> 00:57:53,280
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's possible.

1201
00:57:53,320 --> 00:57:56,360
Speaker 2: I mean, the Giants have no quarterback, did Cowboys have

1202
00:57:56,400 --> 00:57:58,760
Speaker 2: no defense? The Eagles could kind of sneak up in

1203
00:57:58,800 --> 00:58:01,320
Speaker 2: a second place maybe if they get a playoff spot

1204
00:58:01,920 --> 00:58:04,200
Speaker 2: and Jamen Hurts has like a Lamar type season, I

1205
00:58:04,240 --> 00:58:06,920
Speaker 2: think he has a really good shot at winning an MVP.

1206
00:58:07,240 --> 00:58:08,400
Speaker 1: Sean, what are your thoughts on Hurt?

1207
00:58:09,480 --> 00:58:12,920
Speaker 5: Yeah, his rushing upside seems like a lock at this point,

1208
00:58:13,520 --> 00:58:15,000
Speaker 5: and you mentioned it. You know, he has a non

1209
00:58:15,080 --> 00:58:19,360
Speaker 5: zero chance to have Lamar Jackson twenty nineteen or a

1210
00:58:19,440 --> 00:58:22,080
Speaker 5: Josh Allen twenty twenty sort of a breakout season as

1211
00:58:22,120 --> 00:58:25,920
Speaker 5: a passer. So he's the only quarterback outside of the

1212
00:58:25,920 --> 00:58:28,080
Speaker 5: top six. I think it's really worth, you know, a

1213
00:58:28,120 --> 00:58:30,920
Speaker 5: gamble at ADP because you're you're potentially getting a top

1214
00:58:30,960 --> 00:58:33,200
Speaker 5: three quarterback if he just plays up to his potential,

1215
00:58:34,120 --> 00:58:36,520
Speaker 5: and even if he crashes and burns, he won't kill you,

1216
00:58:37,000 --> 00:58:39,440
Speaker 5: and you'll probably know right away he'll either be hurt

1217
00:58:39,560 --> 00:58:43,160
Speaker 5: or benched, so you know he's not gonna just you're

1218
00:58:43,200 --> 00:58:45,920
Speaker 5: not gonna have to stick with him all season. So

1219
00:58:45,960 --> 00:58:48,040
Speaker 5: I think he's the guy outside of the top six.

1220
00:58:48,080 --> 00:58:50,560
Speaker 5: I'm willing to roll the dice on just because, like

1221
00:58:50,880 --> 00:58:52,960
Speaker 5: when we were making projections at the end of last season,

1222
00:58:53,000 --> 00:58:56,720
Speaker 5: he was in our top three every week, and you know,

1223
00:58:56,880 --> 00:58:59,960
Speaker 5: I don't see anything any reason to think he'll regress

1224
00:59:00,080 --> 00:59:02,160
Speaker 5: stay out of DeVonta Smith. I think, you know, Jalen

1225
00:59:02,240 --> 00:59:04,560
Speaker 5: Rager could break out near two as being, you know,

1226
00:59:04,600 --> 00:59:05,520
Speaker 5: the number two receiver.

1227
00:59:05,600 --> 00:59:05,880
Speaker 3: They don't.

1228
00:59:05,920 --> 00:59:07,520
Speaker 5: They don't have to rely on him as the number one.

1229
00:59:07,560 --> 00:59:09,720
Speaker 5: I think there's a lot of potential in this offense.

1230
00:59:09,720 --> 00:59:11,960
Speaker 5: So I love taking Hurts at ADP right now.

1231
00:59:12,720 --> 00:59:15,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think I think you really it's you know,

1232
00:59:15,600 --> 00:59:18,600
Speaker 2: after Dak, I could see I could even see Hurts

1233
00:59:18,600 --> 00:59:19,360
Speaker 2: as highest five.

1234
00:59:19,680 --> 00:59:21,120
Speaker 1: I wouldn't. I like the.

1235
00:59:21,120 --> 00:59:23,439
Speaker 2: Consistency of Wilson, and I think we're getting a little

1236
00:59:23,440 --> 00:59:24,560
Speaker 2: we know a little more about.

1237
00:59:24,360 --> 00:59:25,880
Speaker 1: Dak and Herbert.

1238
00:59:25,880 --> 00:59:28,200
Speaker 2: You know, I could could be prime to explode, but

1239
00:59:28,280 --> 00:59:31,080
Speaker 2: I don't really see how you take Rogers or Brady,

1240
00:59:31,120 --> 00:59:33,680
Speaker 2: to be honest, over over Jami Hurts at this point.

1241
00:59:33,720 --> 00:59:37,040
Speaker 2: And it's even tough, probably even to take Herbert over

1242
00:59:37,120 --> 00:59:40,800
Speaker 2: Hurts considering you know, they're both young guys. I really

1243
00:59:40,840 --> 00:59:44,000
Speaker 2: like the the rushing production is a lock, and it's

1244
00:59:44,040 --> 00:59:48,240
Speaker 2: because scramble frequency is one of the most sticky predictive

1245
00:59:48,280 --> 00:59:52,360
Speaker 2: stats that we have year to year any position, and

1246
00:59:52,640 --> 00:59:55,600
Speaker 2: Hurts scrambled thirteen point five percent of dropbacks last year

1247
00:59:56,040 --> 00:59:57,520
Speaker 2: and as a ridiculously high rate.

1248
00:59:57,560 --> 01:00:00,480
Speaker 1: And this is not even counting, uh, you know, runs

1249
01:00:00,520 --> 01:00:01,120
Speaker 1: and things like that.

1250
01:00:01,200 --> 01:00:05,680
Speaker 2: So you scramble, you know, more than once every ten dropbacks,

1251
01:00:05,720 --> 01:00:08,480
Speaker 2: and that's the same like yardage as a pass attempt.

1252
01:00:08,520 --> 01:00:10,280
Speaker 1: You know, you're usually getting six seven eight.

1253
01:00:10,160 --> 01:00:14,200
Speaker 2: Yards per scramble on average, So those are extremely valuable.

1254
01:00:14,920 --> 01:00:18,680
Speaker 2: Love Jalen Hurts this year, so that I do agree.

1255
01:00:18,680 --> 01:00:21,040
Speaker 2: I think that's the guy that, like, like last year,

1256
01:00:21,080 --> 01:00:23,320
Speaker 2: we were targeting Josh Allen in those middle rounds. It

1257
01:00:23,320 --> 01:00:26,400
Speaker 2: wasn't necessarily a full late round strategy for me. It's

1258
01:00:26,440 --> 01:00:29,080
Speaker 2: Hurts this year. But I do want to move on

1259
01:00:29,120 --> 01:00:31,920
Speaker 2: to these last two guys, and in particular Ryan Tannehill

1260
01:00:32,160 --> 01:00:35,400
Speaker 2: QB eleven adp Evan I really struggle with him, So

1261
01:00:35,400 --> 01:00:37,520
Speaker 2: I'm really curious as to what you're gonna say, and

1262
01:00:37,560 --> 01:00:40,439
Speaker 2: Sean as well, because I feel like It's always hard

1263
01:00:40,480 --> 01:00:42,320
Speaker 2: to rank him. You always feel like you have him

1264
01:00:42,320 --> 01:00:44,600
Speaker 2: too low. Then he goes out and it's like automatic

1265
01:00:44,600 --> 01:00:48,960
Speaker 2: three touchdowns. But I have a lot of respect for

1266
01:00:49,080 --> 01:00:51,200
Speaker 2: Arthur Smith. Like I wrote a whole piece on the

1267
01:00:51,200 --> 01:00:51,920
Speaker 2: Titands last year.

1268
01:00:51,920 --> 01:00:54,840
Speaker 1: I thought Smith was responsible. He's responsible for.

1269
01:00:54,960 --> 01:00:57,320
Speaker 2: The turnaround of Tannehill, for the turnaround of that offense,

1270
01:00:57,480 --> 01:01:00,320
Speaker 2: for finally making the pieces fit with Derreck Henry. All

1271
01:01:00,320 --> 01:01:02,120
Speaker 2: built on that play action game. And let's not forget

1272
01:01:02,160 --> 01:01:04,040
Speaker 2: how efficient they are in the red zone as well.

1273
01:01:04,200 --> 01:01:06,280
Speaker 2: I mean they were automatic in the red zone. Arthur

1274
01:01:06,280 --> 01:01:10,480
Speaker 2: Smith is gone, Julio Jones is here, right that off

1275
01:01:10,480 --> 01:01:12,680
Speaker 2: set like that is everything going to be straight?

1276
01:01:12,720 --> 01:01:15,040
Speaker 1: And Ryan Tanner? Who's gonna keep being Ryan Tanner?

1277
01:01:15,080 --> 01:01:18,960
Speaker 3: That's the key question is is the addition of Julio

1278
01:01:19,040 --> 01:01:22,320
Speaker 3: Jones can that offset because we know his on off

1279
01:01:22,320 --> 01:01:27,960
Speaker 3: splits with Matt Ryan were stark, and can his addition

1280
01:01:28,160 --> 01:01:32,040
Speaker 3: off set the loss of Arthur Smith. Can Todd Downing,

1281
01:01:32,080 --> 01:01:34,200
Speaker 3: who has been on staff with the Titans for the

1282
01:01:34,240 --> 01:01:37,480
Speaker 3: past couple of years, you know, just mimic the offense

1283
01:01:37,480 --> 01:01:40,600
Speaker 3: that Arthur Smith put in place. Because Todd Downing had

1284
01:01:40,600 --> 01:01:44,160
Speaker 3: one year as the Raiders OC and fucking bombed it.

1285
01:01:45,520 --> 01:01:48,640
Speaker 3: So hopefully he can do better in this situation. They're

1286
01:01:48,800 --> 01:01:52,600
Speaker 3: so thin. I mean, Josh Reynolds was a nice pick

1287
01:01:52,680 --> 01:01:55,680
Speaker 3: up if Ferksore goes down, Like, who are they playing

1288
01:01:55,720 --> 01:01:57,480
Speaker 3: at tight end? I don't I don't even know.

1289
01:01:57,600 --> 01:01:59,560
Speaker 2: I mean, Mike col is it going to be Michael

1290
01:02:00,080 --> 01:02:02,960
Speaker 2: Michaele is still a free agent. I didn't even resign

1291
01:02:03,040 --> 01:02:06,080
Speaker 2: him yet. I don't think, Oh gee, so is Swain

1292
01:02:06,160 --> 01:02:09,760
Speaker 2: still there? It's got as well of these guys, yes, yeah, okay, yeah,

1293
01:02:10,680 --> 01:02:12,920
Speaker 2: Michael Michael will be sounding before a week one and

1294
01:02:12,960 --> 01:02:14,960
Speaker 2: play like for every week snap.

1295
01:02:15,040 --> 01:02:19,360
Speaker 3: So I was like, but uh, you know, they're they're

1296
01:02:19,440 --> 01:02:21,840
Speaker 3: really really thinking they're gonna be bad on defense too.

1297
01:02:21,920 --> 01:02:24,760
Speaker 3: By the way, they their past defense, well, their their

1298
01:02:24,880 --> 01:02:28,120
Speaker 3: entire secondary, but outside of Kevin Byer they made over

1299
01:02:28,640 --> 01:02:31,720
Speaker 3: in the offseason. It's a bunch of guys that, you know,

1300
01:02:31,760 --> 01:02:33,920
Speaker 3: you don't have a whole lot of faith in h

1301
01:02:34,000 --> 01:02:36,240
Speaker 3: their pass rush. I mean their way of addressing that,

1302
01:02:36,240 --> 01:02:38,960
Speaker 3: which was non existent last year was by signing Bud Dupree,

1303
01:02:39,000 --> 01:02:44,919
Speaker 3: who is Yeah, he's not very good. They were bad

1304
01:02:44,920 --> 01:02:47,919
Speaker 3: on defense last year. They're gonna be bad again. This year,

1305
01:02:47,960 --> 01:02:50,760
Speaker 3: they're gonna end up throwing I think a considerably more

1306
01:02:50,800 --> 01:02:55,920
Speaker 3: amount this season. It's just can he parlay the efficiency

1307
01:02:56,040 --> 01:02:58,840
Speaker 3: that he showed under Arthur Smith. I think the answer

1308
01:02:58,880 --> 01:03:02,400
Speaker 3: is an obvious no. But can he parlay you know,

1309
01:03:02,440 --> 01:03:04,960
Speaker 3: the majority of it into this year? I think his

1310
01:03:05,000 --> 01:03:09,360
Speaker 3: past attempts rised by like one hundred and then you know,

1311
01:03:09,440 --> 01:03:11,760
Speaker 3: can Julio hold up? Can a j Brown hold up?

1312
01:03:11,760 --> 01:03:14,560
Speaker 3: Because they're so freaking thin. I mean again, I like

1313
01:03:14,640 --> 01:03:16,680
Speaker 3: Josh Reynolds as a third receiver. I don't like him

1314
01:03:16,720 --> 01:03:19,320
Speaker 3: very much as a second receiver, and they're relying so

1315
01:03:19,520 --> 01:03:22,720
Speaker 3: much on Anthony Firks or it's like ridiculous.

1316
01:03:24,400 --> 01:03:27,240
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think it's it's it's Todd down. And the

1317
01:03:27,320 --> 01:03:29,960
Speaker 2: question is with him is like he's I think he

1318
01:03:30,000 --> 01:03:32,000
Speaker 2: had one year as OC before this and their team

1319
01:03:32,080 --> 01:03:35,800
Speaker 2: was like fifteenth in uh in past attempts. So, I mean, Sean,

1320
01:03:36,160 --> 01:03:38,400
Speaker 2: you know what what do you see for Tannahill with

1321
01:03:38,440 --> 01:03:40,840
Speaker 2: the with the volume? Is that is that something that

1322
01:03:40,920 --> 01:03:44,120
Speaker 2: is gonna rise and is rising in your projections as well?

1323
01:03:44,280 --> 01:03:47,280
Speaker 2: And uh like, is the is there an efficiency drop

1324
01:03:47,320 --> 01:03:49,440
Speaker 2: off Christy Smith? Or is that kind of canceled out by.

1325
01:03:49,360 --> 01:03:50,040
Speaker 3: Who we owe for you.

1326
01:03:50,960 --> 01:03:53,760
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean Julio has to cancel out, you know,

1327
01:03:53,840 --> 01:03:56,720
Speaker 5: the loss of Arthur Smith, Corey Davis, and Johnny Smith.

1328
01:03:57,600 --> 01:04:00,880
Speaker 4: So that's what I'm saying. Like with with Evan's point.

1329
01:04:00,600 --> 01:04:03,640
Speaker 5: Of you know, Hulu has to stay healthy, and I

1330
01:04:03,680 --> 01:04:05,360
Speaker 5: don't know if we can bank on that anymore.

1331
01:04:05,520 --> 01:04:06,800
Speaker 4: Last year he did.

1332
01:04:06,640 --> 01:04:08,960
Speaker 5: Look like, you know, he's starting to get old and

1333
01:04:09,320 --> 01:04:11,480
Speaker 5: break down a bit. So you know, if he goes down,

1334
01:04:11,720 --> 01:04:14,120
Speaker 5: this is gonna be really tough. And I know Raybun,

1335
01:04:14,160 --> 01:04:16,800
Speaker 5: you and I we always complain about projecting Ryan Tannehill.

1336
01:04:16,800 --> 01:04:21,040
Speaker 5: It's almost impossible because you can't project his efficiency to

1337
01:04:21,120 --> 01:04:25,200
Speaker 5: maintain this elite status. I mean, especially with a run

1338
01:04:25,280 --> 01:04:28,800
Speaker 5: heavy offense with Derrick Henry. Just the fact that he's

1339
01:04:28,840 --> 01:04:32,840
Speaker 5: able to consistently produce two or more touchdowns a game.

1340
01:04:33,640 --> 01:04:36,320
Speaker 5: Twenty four of his twenty six starts on the Titans,

1341
01:04:36,360 --> 01:04:39,600
Speaker 5: he's had two or more touchdowns. It just feels unsustainable.

1342
01:04:39,640 --> 01:04:41,520
Speaker 5: So he I think they have.

1343
01:04:41,480 --> 01:04:42,160
Speaker 4: To throw more.

1344
01:04:42,240 --> 01:04:44,480
Speaker 5: So if Evan's right and they do throw one hundred

1345
01:04:44,480 --> 01:04:46,720
Speaker 5: more times this year, that would be great and I

1346
01:04:46,760 --> 01:04:49,080
Speaker 5: would be more comfortable taking him at ADP. But I

1347
01:04:49,080 --> 01:04:51,080
Speaker 5: don't know if we could bank on that. So I'm

1348
01:04:51,120 --> 01:04:54,320
Speaker 5: just staying away and just letting him constantly outperform my

1349
01:04:54,400 --> 01:04:59,920
Speaker 5: projections because I can't bring myself to project him, you know,

1350
01:05:00,040 --> 01:05:02,120
Speaker 5: as a top ten quarterback. So I think his ADP

1351
01:05:02,200 --> 01:05:04,240
Speaker 5: at eleven seems fine. I'm just not gonna have much

1352
01:05:04,240 --> 01:05:04,680
Speaker 5: of them there.

1353
01:05:04,720 --> 01:05:07,120
Speaker 3: Well, I wanted to where did Raybonn? Where'd you get

1354
01:05:07,120 --> 01:05:09,840
Speaker 3: this list? Because Joe Burrow should definitely be ahead of

1355
01:05:09,920 --> 01:05:10,600
Speaker 3: Ryan Tannehier.

1356
01:05:10,720 --> 01:05:13,720
Speaker 2: So this is the fantasy pros consensus ADP ranks, and

1357
01:05:13,760 --> 01:05:15,680
Speaker 2: so they they're taking you know, all the sites, some

1358
01:05:15,720 --> 01:05:17,600
Speaker 2: of which I know people are just you know, mocking,

1359
01:05:17,600 --> 01:05:19,200
Speaker 2: probably not as seriously as other sites.

1360
01:05:19,240 --> 01:05:20,320
Speaker 1: So yeah, you.

1361
01:05:20,400 --> 01:05:22,040
Speaker 3: Know, little kickers before, you know.

1362
01:05:22,560 --> 01:05:25,080
Speaker 2: Right, Yeah, So I mean it's a little I think

1363
01:05:25,080 --> 01:05:27,919
Speaker 2: it generally represents the market consensus, but you know, there's

1364
01:05:27,920 --> 01:05:30,600
Speaker 2: definitely some spots where I think, like even with daywhen hurts,

1365
01:05:30,600 --> 01:05:34,120
Speaker 2: I think he's too well at ten. But Tannehill at eleven,

1366
01:05:34,160 --> 01:05:36,080
Speaker 2: for me, I'm actually okay with it because I do

1367
01:05:36,120 --> 01:05:38,360
Speaker 2: think he still brings some something to the.

1368
01:05:38,320 --> 01:05:39,640
Speaker 1: Table rushing wise.

1369
01:05:39,880 --> 01:05:41,840
Speaker 2: You know, he has he had seven rushing scores a

1370
01:05:41,920 --> 01:05:43,120
Speaker 2: year and I don't think that continues.

1371
01:05:43,160 --> 01:05:46,040
Speaker 1: But you know, sixteen point six yards. It's a little

1372
01:05:46,040 --> 01:05:46,479
Speaker 1: more than.

1373
01:05:46,640 --> 01:05:48,440
Speaker 3: Hey, they call plays for him at the goal and

1374
01:05:48,520 --> 01:05:51,080
Speaker 3: all these playfakes, you know, to to Derrick Henry. I

1375
01:05:51,080 --> 01:05:53,840
Speaker 3: mean that's like a part of their offense. So I

1376
01:05:53,880 --> 01:05:56,640
Speaker 3: would I mean, yeah, I'm not a I was still

1377
01:05:56,680 --> 01:05:59,080
Speaker 3: projecting for you know, four or five this year.

1378
01:05:59,680 --> 01:06:01,120
Speaker 1: Yeah, he's not he can run.

1379
01:06:01,160 --> 01:06:03,800
Speaker 3: I mean, you know, everyone forgets he played wide receiver

1380
01:06:03,840 --> 01:06:05,920
Speaker 3: at Texas A and M.

1381
01:06:06,040 --> 01:06:08,640
Speaker 2: Yeah he's not dead, like just because you know, I mean,

1382
01:06:08,680 --> 01:06:10,880
Speaker 2: if any I mean, what's to be realistic.

1383
01:06:10,880 --> 01:06:12,320
Speaker 1: I mean, if you're not kind.

1384
01:06:12,160 --> 01:06:15,360
Speaker 2: Of so dialed in, like like Evan and you are,

1385
01:06:15,360 --> 01:06:17,560
Speaker 2: and Sean you are, and I if you're not as

1386
01:06:17,680 --> 01:06:21,280
Speaker 2: dialed in, you're not thinking about like offensive coordinators all

1387
01:06:21,320 --> 01:06:23,040
Speaker 2: that hard. Now you should because Arthur Smith is a

1388
01:06:23,080 --> 01:06:26,040
Speaker 2: really good one. But like on the surface, it's just like, Okay,

1389
01:06:26,240 --> 01:06:28,120
Speaker 2: Titans defense is going to be bad and they got

1390
01:06:28,200 --> 01:06:30,720
Speaker 2: Julio Jones like that. That's an upgrade in a lot

1391
01:06:30,760 --> 01:06:33,680
Speaker 2: of people's minds, right, and and it could very well

1392
01:06:33,680 --> 01:06:35,440
Speaker 2: beat it. I think the Titans have a very volatile

1393
01:06:35,520 --> 01:06:37,960
Speaker 2: range of outcomes as a team, and I think that

1394
01:06:38,040 --> 01:06:40,440
Speaker 2: extends to their players. I think if the guys they

1395
01:06:40,560 --> 01:06:43,440
Speaker 2: kind of used to turn over the defense stay healthy,

1396
01:06:44,760 --> 01:06:46,560
Speaker 2: you know, they could they could be a really good team.

1397
01:06:46,600 --> 01:06:49,120
Speaker 2: I think if if if Julio stays healthy, if if

1398
01:06:49,160 --> 01:06:50,880
Speaker 2: they if they can all set the loss of Smith,

1399
01:06:51,560 --> 01:06:53,080
Speaker 2: high upside team if everything.

1400
01:06:52,800 --> 01:06:53,760
Speaker 1: Goes wrong on the other area.

1401
01:06:53,840 --> 01:06:56,320
Speaker 3: On all that, I want to hear Shawn's take on

1402
01:06:56,520 --> 01:06:59,920
Speaker 3: Joe Burrow because the data guys you know at ETU

1403
01:07:00,080 --> 01:07:03,560
Speaker 3: are Leoni and you know our other guys, they love

1404
01:07:03,800 --> 01:07:07,160
Speaker 3: the Bengals offense so much this year, and you know

1405
01:07:07,200 --> 01:07:10,480
Speaker 3: they're project I mean the Zach Taylor. You know he'll

1406
01:07:10,520 --> 01:07:13,240
Speaker 3: play fast. They have a really high pass rate. You know,

1407
01:07:13,280 --> 01:07:18,400
Speaker 3: they got Tyler Higgins, Jamar Chase, Tyler Boyd. But you know,

1408
01:07:18,640 --> 01:07:21,080
Speaker 3: and I totally get it, and I'm sure it looks

1409
01:07:21,120 --> 01:07:25,240
Speaker 3: great on the spreadsheet. However, you know they their offensive

1410
01:07:25,280 --> 01:07:29,240
Speaker 3: line still stinks. And he's coming off in ACL and

1411
01:07:29,280 --> 01:07:33,040
Speaker 3: I believe in mcl too. And he's a movement quarterback.

1412
01:07:33,200 --> 01:07:36,720
Speaker 3: You know, he's not Lamar Jackson, but he's you know,

1413
01:07:36,800 --> 01:07:39,560
Speaker 3: he's he's like a top fifteen athlete at the position

1414
01:07:39,760 --> 01:07:41,880
Speaker 3: across the league. And that's a big part of his game.

1415
01:07:41,880 --> 01:07:45,640
Speaker 3: And it was at LSU I don't like that combination

1416
01:07:45,960 --> 01:07:48,800
Speaker 3: the offensive line. Still, the biggest addition that they made

1417
01:07:49,000 --> 01:07:51,800
Speaker 3: was with Riley Reef, and then they used the second

1418
01:07:51,880 --> 01:07:55,280
Speaker 3: round pick on Jackson Carmen, who wasn't even good in

1419
01:07:55,400 --> 01:07:58,600
Speaker 3: college and is like coming off a back injury, which

1420
01:07:58,600 --> 01:08:00,760
Speaker 3: you hate to see for any offensive I'm and Ryley Reef.

1421
01:08:01,520 --> 01:08:04,120
Speaker 3: He also has a history of back injuries. But where

1422
01:08:04,120 --> 01:08:05,600
Speaker 3: are you at on Joe Burrow?

1423
01:08:06,080 --> 01:08:10,080
Speaker 5: Yeah, I have him QB thirteen. Similar concerns with you

1424
01:08:10,160 --> 01:08:12,960
Speaker 5: with you know, I don't think we can bank on

1425
01:08:13,240 --> 01:08:16,360
Speaker 5: you know, his his rushing upside hitting the full potential

1426
01:08:16,439 --> 01:08:18,840
Speaker 5: this year and certainly you know he has one of

1427
01:08:18,880 --> 01:08:23,120
Speaker 5: the best trio of receivers, but you know at tight end,

1428
01:08:23,160 --> 01:08:24,760
Speaker 5: tight end is still pretty weak. You know, he's gonna

1429
01:08:24,760 --> 01:08:28,439
Speaker 5: have cj Uzoma, and you know, I think they're gonna

1430
01:08:28,520 --> 01:08:30,280
Speaker 5: lean on Joe Mixon a bit more this year.

1431
01:08:30,800 --> 01:08:33,120
Speaker 4: So I agree. I think that you know, well, Jamar

1432
01:08:33,200 --> 01:08:33,640
Speaker 4: Chase is.

1433
01:08:33,640 --> 01:08:36,240
Speaker 5: A sexy pick. I think they probably should have gone

1434
01:08:36,240 --> 01:08:38,639
Speaker 5: with Sewell or just get some offensive line help because

1435
01:08:38,760 --> 01:08:41,080
Speaker 5: you got to keep him healthy, especially after last season.

1436
01:08:41,960 --> 01:08:44,559
Speaker 5: So he sits a top sort of like a pretty

1437
01:08:44,560 --> 01:08:47,519
Speaker 5: big like five to six QB two tier for me.

1438
01:08:47,600 --> 01:08:49,120
Speaker 5: So that's why I'm probably not gonna have a ton

1439
01:08:49,160 --> 01:08:52,200
Speaker 5: of him. But I love aggressively attacking any one of

1440
01:08:52,240 --> 01:08:55,639
Speaker 5: these three wide receivers. Like I think all these guys

1441
01:08:55,680 --> 01:08:58,439
Speaker 5: can crush expectations, but Joe Burry himself, I'm not going

1442
01:08:58,439 --> 01:09:00,000
Speaker 5: out of my way to take them this year.

1443
01:09:01,280 --> 01:09:03,759
Speaker 1: I would. I think Joe Burr deserves to be above

1444
01:09:03,840 --> 01:09:04,400
Speaker 1: like Brady.

1445
01:09:05,120 --> 01:09:08,479
Speaker 2: I'm kind of I'm kind of high on Joe Burrow

1446
01:09:08,520 --> 01:09:13,479
Speaker 2: because I think the like injuries are really hard to predict,

1447
01:09:13,520 --> 01:09:15,800
Speaker 2: Like he got hurt last year, he misses the rest

1448
01:09:15,800 --> 01:09:17,479
Speaker 2: of the season, so it's it's it's a lot of

1449
01:09:17,520 --> 01:09:20,240
Speaker 2: recency bias. The last image we have of him is

1450
01:09:20,320 --> 01:09:22,879
Speaker 2: him rolling out of the season and out of any.

1451
01:09:22,800 --> 01:09:24,680
Speaker 1: Roster you had on a cart.

1452
01:09:24,880 --> 01:09:27,000
Speaker 2: But the bottom line is the Bengals have been here

1453
01:09:27,040 --> 01:09:29,479
Speaker 2: the top of the league in passing. AJ Green was

1454
01:09:29,520 --> 01:09:32,080
Speaker 2: catching under fifty percent of his balls. He was averaging

1455
01:09:32,080 --> 01:09:34,200
Speaker 2: what like four yards or target and he went the

1456
01:09:34,200 --> 01:09:36,720
Speaker 2: team in air yards. Last year, thirty percent of the

1457
01:09:36,720 --> 01:09:38,840
Speaker 2: are yards went to a player that could not play

1458
01:09:38,840 --> 01:09:39,679
Speaker 2: football anymore.

1459
01:09:39,960 --> 01:09:42,599
Speaker 1: So I mean that's going to be a huge difference.

1460
01:09:42,680 --> 01:09:47,600
Speaker 2: Like just transferring Chase to Green's role and then you

1461
01:09:47,760 --> 01:09:49,599
Speaker 2: factor in. The defense may not be great. The team

1462
01:09:49,680 --> 01:09:53,960
Speaker 2: may not be great Withsten. Yes, it's a concern. Burrow

1463
01:09:53,960 --> 01:09:55,880
Speaker 2: would probably like it for them to get an old

1464
01:09:55,920 --> 01:09:58,920
Speaker 2: lineman as well, or a better one if.

1465
01:09:58,800 --> 01:10:00,800
Speaker 1: People invested him. May may have liked that.

1466
01:10:00,880 --> 01:10:02,760
Speaker 2: But at the end of the day, we can't just

1467
01:10:02,800 --> 01:10:05,479
Speaker 2: predict every quarterback is gonna get sat a certain amount

1468
01:10:05,479 --> 01:10:06,880
Speaker 2: of times per year and get hit a certain amount

1469
01:10:06,920 --> 01:10:09,560
Speaker 2: of times per year. You can't predict which one is

1470
01:10:09,560 --> 01:10:11,960
Speaker 2: gonna end a guys season. If Joe Burrow stays healthy,

1471
01:10:11,960 --> 01:10:14,000
Speaker 2: I think he's top ten and pass attempts he can

1472
01:10:14,080 --> 01:10:16,160
Speaker 2: give you fifteen twenty yards per game on the ground,

1473
01:10:16,439 --> 01:10:19,960
Speaker 2: and his receiver he might have a like literal night

1474
01:10:19,960 --> 01:10:21,920
Speaker 2: and day difference, like a doublely good in terms of

1475
01:10:21,960 --> 01:10:25,639
Speaker 2: per target average at his number one receiver spot.

1476
01:10:25,680 --> 01:10:27,880
Speaker 3: What if Joe Burrow isn't very good? Do you remember

1477
01:10:27,920 --> 01:10:31,880
Speaker 3: the d Do you remember the Zach Mettenberger corolatory at

1478
01:10:31,960 --> 01:10:37,479
Speaker 3: ls with Beckhaman Jarvis Landry? Because because j Burrow justin

1479
01:10:37,600 --> 01:10:41,920
Speaker 3: Jefferson and Jamar Chase and Terrace Marshall and like some

1480
01:10:41,960 --> 01:10:45,200
Speaker 3: other guys, I'm not no you know a college football expert,

1481
01:10:45,560 --> 01:10:48,639
Speaker 3: but Justin Jefferson, who set the NFL record for rookie

1482
01:10:48,720 --> 01:10:52,080
Speaker 3: receiving yards, Jamar Chase, who at age nineteen, won the

1483
01:10:52,040 --> 01:10:56,759
Speaker 3: Bulletanakoff Award on the same team as Justin Jefferson. Tarris Marshall,

1484
01:10:56,840 --> 01:10:58,800
Speaker 3: who you know was probably a first round talent feller

1485
01:10:58,840 --> 01:11:01,200
Speaker 3: the second round. Do this some meek concerns. You know,

1486
01:11:01,240 --> 01:11:04,400
Speaker 3: what if it was Joe Burrow bringing down AJ Green

1487
01:11:04,640 --> 01:11:06,120
Speaker 3: and not the other way around.

1488
01:11:06,560 --> 01:11:10,479
Speaker 2: Now, I mean, it's it's an interesting exercise, but I

1489
01:11:10,560 --> 01:11:11,320
Speaker 2: look at it this way.

1490
01:11:11,840 --> 01:11:13,479
Speaker 3: I love Burrow stuff like this.

1491
01:11:13,400 --> 01:11:15,759
Speaker 2: But Burrow to AJ Green is five yards of target

1492
01:11:15,800 --> 01:11:18,040
Speaker 2: and that's a fifth of his of his attempts right there,

1493
01:11:18,400 --> 01:11:20,880
Speaker 2: you know. So it's like you, it's a tough spot

1494
01:11:20,880 --> 01:11:22,920
Speaker 2: for a young quarterback to be here, right like a J.

1495
01:11:23,040 --> 01:11:25,840
Speaker 2: Green's his legend, franchise legend. He's expecting to be the

1496
01:11:25,920 --> 01:11:28,800
Speaker 2: number one guy, and so you're not even if he's struggling,

1497
01:11:29,160 --> 01:11:31,080
Speaker 2: you're kind of under some pressure every time he gets

1498
01:11:31,080 --> 01:11:33,040
Speaker 2: back to the huddle to keep looking at him. And

1499
01:11:33,320 --> 01:11:35,040
Speaker 2: I think that's what held him down. Like, I think

1500
01:11:35,040 --> 01:11:35,479
Speaker 2: he'll be fine.

1501
01:11:35,479 --> 01:11:36,559
Speaker 1: I think he's a great quarterback.

1502
01:11:36,640 --> 01:11:39,960
Speaker 3: That offensive line might not be that good coming off

1503
01:11:40,000 --> 01:11:42,960
Speaker 3: of torn a cl and MCL. I mean, I think

1504
01:11:43,000 --> 01:11:45,439
Speaker 3: you know Ray Bun loves him.

1505
01:11:45,600 --> 01:11:47,720
Speaker 4: Finish the show on that note, so I love him.

1506
01:11:48,200 --> 01:11:51,240
Speaker 5: Tom Brady versus Joe Burrow fantasy points this year. I

1507
01:11:51,280 --> 01:11:53,559
Speaker 5: think Brady has a higher floor, So I'll take Brady.

1508
01:11:53,600 --> 01:11:56,080
Speaker 1: I'll take Brady, the forty four year old has a

1509
01:11:56,160 --> 01:12:01,519
Speaker 1: higher floor. Yeah, right, I didn't know. It's a tough

1510
01:12:01,560 --> 01:12:03,040
Speaker 1: it's it's.

1511
01:12:03,080 --> 01:12:04,600
Speaker 2: The more you think about it, it's such a it

1512
01:12:04,680 --> 01:12:05,920
Speaker 2: is a tough decision, but that's.

1513
01:12:05,800 --> 01:12:06,479
Speaker 1: Why we're here.

1514
01:12:06,760 --> 01:12:09,080
Speaker 5: Yeah, I agree with Burrow's ceiling. Like in Best Balls,

1515
01:12:09,120 --> 01:12:12,240
Speaker 5: stacking with one or two receivers. I can totally get

1516
01:12:12,240 --> 01:12:12,560
Speaker 5: behind that.

1517
01:12:12,960 --> 01:12:14,479
Speaker 1: Yeah, and then so what we're just gonna end it

1518
01:12:14,520 --> 01:12:14,960
Speaker 1: on Burrow.

1519
01:12:15,280 --> 01:12:17,120
Speaker 2: I had Stafford in the outline, but like their nec

1520
01:12:17,160 --> 01:12:20,080
Speaker 2: and Burrows the thirteenth and EIGHTYP so let's just we'll

1521
01:12:20,080 --> 01:12:22,679
Speaker 2: go over Stafford and the rest of the QB two

1522
01:12:23,280 --> 01:12:27,880
Speaker 2: and weight rounds here next episode for this one. Before

1523
01:12:27,920 --> 01:12:30,280
Speaker 2: you guys go, I just want to get two things.

1524
01:12:30,360 --> 01:12:33,960
Speaker 2: Number one, your top five U and then number two,

1525
01:12:34,000 --> 01:12:36,559
Speaker 2: your most overrated guy that that we talked about today.

1526
01:12:36,600 --> 01:12:39,200
Speaker 2: So Evan start with you. Who's your top five again

1527
01:12:39,520 --> 01:12:41,040
Speaker 2: in terms of rankings that quarterback.

1528
01:12:41,400 --> 01:12:46,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's it's always very fluid, but it's Josh Allen one,

1529
01:12:46,560 --> 01:12:52,040
Speaker 3: Lamar Jackson two, Patrick Mahomes three, Kyler Murray four, Dak

1530
01:12:52,040 --> 01:12:55,000
Speaker 3: Prescott five, and then the most overrated guy we talked

1531
01:12:55,000 --> 01:13:00,679
Speaker 3: about today maybe Aaron Rodgers because because I'm with schefter

1532
01:13:00,840 --> 01:13:03,920
Speaker 3: and predict predicting that he won't play, although I could

1533
01:13:04,040 --> 01:13:04,760
Speaker 3: very well be wrong.

1534
01:13:05,320 --> 01:13:07,439
Speaker 1: Hiight, Sean, how about you top five and most overrating?

1535
01:13:07,720 --> 01:13:10,719
Speaker 5: My top five is Patrick Maholmes at number one, Josh

1536
01:13:10,800 --> 01:13:14,040
Speaker 5: all at number two, Kyler Murray at three, Lamar Jackson

1537
01:13:14,080 --> 01:13:17,240
Speaker 5: at four, and Dak Prescott at five. And yeah, my

1538
01:13:17,640 --> 01:13:20,599
Speaker 5: overrated pick is Aaron Rodgers at QB eight as well.

1539
01:13:20,439 --> 01:13:23,240
Speaker 5: We just don't have enough certainty right now to even

1540
01:13:23,280 --> 01:13:25,840
Speaker 5: know who's going to be playing Week one, so I'm

1541
01:13:25,880 --> 01:13:27,519
Speaker 5: avoiding him at QB eight.

1542
01:13:28,280 --> 01:13:31,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, man, I'm in the same boat Mahomes, Allen, Murray, Jackson, Prescott,

1543
01:13:32,200 --> 01:13:35,759
Speaker 2: Aaron Rodgers to going to high at QB eight giving

1544
01:13:35,800 --> 01:13:37,760
Speaker 2: all the uncertainty.

1545
01:13:38,320 --> 01:13:42,160
Speaker 1: Evan, this was a pleasure. Thank you so much for.

1546
01:13:42,439 --> 01:13:45,080
Speaker 2: Coming on here. You are a goat in the industry.

1547
01:13:45,320 --> 01:13:47,800
Speaker 2: Tell everybody what you what you'll be up to where

1548
01:13:47,800 --> 01:13:48,479
Speaker 2: they can find you.

1549
01:13:49,200 --> 01:13:53,760
Speaker 3: Yeah, just writing team previews until training camp starts, and

1550
01:13:53,800 --> 01:13:56,960
Speaker 3: probably a little bit into when training camp starts, trying

1551
01:13:56,960 --> 01:13:59,960
Speaker 3: to bang those out and mixing in my brother's bachelor park.

1552
01:14:00,640 --> 01:14:02,960
Speaker 3: I'm the best man, so I gotta like, I gotta

1553
01:14:03,000 --> 01:14:06,080
Speaker 3: be there for like four days. It's ridiculous, but it

1554
01:14:06,080 --> 01:14:08,479
Speaker 3: should be fun. But yeah, you can check us out

1555
01:14:08,520 --> 01:14:13,080
Speaker 3: at establishthorun dot com and I'm at at Evansilva on Twitter.

1556
01:14:13,600 --> 01:14:14,880
Speaker 1: Then there you have it. Guys.

1557
01:14:15,000 --> 01:14:18,240
Speaker 2: You can check Sean out at the Underscore Odds Maker

1558
01:14:18,560 --> 01:14:20,640
Speaker 2: on Twitter and in the Action Network app. You can

1559
01:14:20,680 --> 01:14:24,160
Speaker 2: find me at Chris Raybon on Twitter and in the

1560
01:14:24,160 --> 01:14:27,360
Speaker 2: Action App as well. And check out Actionnetwork dot com

1561
01:14:27,360 --> 01:14:30,120
Speaker 2: and the Action App for all of our fantasy NFL

1562
01:14:30,400 --> 01:14:33,040
Speaker 2: and betting content and Fantasy ap as well for our

1563
01:14:33,120 --> 01:14:36,760
Speaker 2: DFS content until next episode. Thank you for listening to

1564
01:14:36,800 --> 01:14:46,479
Speaker 2: the Fantasy Flex. Let's get this money.