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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast Podcast.

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Speaker 2: If you are even remotely a savage, you'll run these

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Speaker 2: people over for a second.

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Speaker 1: Welcome into the Action Network Podcast, presented by bet MGM,

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Speaker 1: Brendan Glasheen, joined by Sean Zarrillo and Billy Ward.

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Speaker 3: We are here for a.

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Speaker 1: UFC betting preview, getting you set for UFC three to

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Speaker 1: four Edwards Muhammad round two. The rematch is here coming

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Speaker 1: to you this weekend in England. It's a late night start,

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Speaker 1: at least for the folks over across the pond. They're

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Speaker 1: going to start this one pretty late, but ten o'clock

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Speaker 1: pay per view main card Teddy Eastern. That is, prelim

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Speaker 1: start at eight o'clock over on the ESPN family of networks.

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Speaker 1: All right, Sean, we've got Mohammad as the underdog here

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Speaker 1: at plus two five.

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Speaker 3: Edward's the favorite.

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Speaker 1: How do you break this one down and give us

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Speaker 1: your context as it pertains to the fact that they

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Speaker 1: are We got a rematch fight here for the championship.

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Speaker 4: Yeah.

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Speaker 3: So this fight took place originally in March twenty twenty

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Speaker 3: one in the UFC Apex and Leon was pretty much

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Speaker 3: dominating the first round until I poking Balal got warned

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Speaker 3: and then did it again and the fight was stopped

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Speaker 3: because Blaal couldn't continue. But it seemed in the moment

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Speaker 3: like Blall was sort of taking the way out because

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Speaker 3: he's getting dominated. I believe he had taken that fight

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Speaker 3: on short notice as a late replacement and it was

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Speaker 3: a main event and things just weren't going his way early. Now,

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Speaker 3: the longer this fight extends is where I think Balal

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Speaker 3: could have success his recent matchups. He's on a long

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Speaker 3: winning streak, He's thirty six years old. I think he's

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Speaker 3: a very underrated fighter, and I have largely bet on

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Speaker 3: Blaal instead of against him throughout this recent run. I

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Speaker 3: think the only fight I bet against him was the

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Speaker 3: Goper Burns fight, where Burns was hurt in round one

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Speaker 3: and wasn't really one hundred percent effective after that point.

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Speaker 3: But Balala is largely faced grapplers, Especially since that Leon fight.

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Speaker 3: He's only faced guys who he has an advantage a

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Speaker 3: clear advantage over in at least one particularly area of MMA,

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Speaker 3: either wrestling or striking, against grapplers who are better grapplers

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Speaker 3: than him. But he was able to keep the fight standing.

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Speaker 3: Sean Brady and Knock him out. Other than that, he

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Speaker 3: faced one dimensional strikers like Stephen Wonderbroa Thompson who's able

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Speaker 3: to suffocate. Leon is by far the most well rounded

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Speaker 3: opponent he's faced. On his recent opponent, serious step up

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Speaker 3: in competition the way better athlete. Leon's three inches taller,

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Speaker 3: He's got a two inch reach advantage. He's much stronger.

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Speaker 3: In my mind, I think his cage wrestling is phenomenal.

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Speaker 3: His clinch work is tremendous. The way he fires his

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Speaker 3: knees and elbows in the clinch. Balala is not going

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Speaker 3: to be able to do his typical crotch sniff, consolidate

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Speaker 3: the legs and look for takedowns up against the fence.

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Speaker 3: Leon is going to be striking aggressively in those positions.

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Speaker 3: It's going to be landing elbows to the side of

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Speaker 3: the head, going to be landing knees as Thellall goes

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Speaker 3: for those double legs. So I think it's just a

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Speaker 3: terrible matchup in general for Ballall, but I do think

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Speaker 3: he could potentially work himself back into the fight later.

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Speaker 3: You saw Leon make mistakes slow down late in his

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Speaker 3: fight against Colby Covington was clipped late in his fight

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Speaker 3: against an ad As almost chaot. If NATed actually followed

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Speaker 3: up on that, probably would have koto him. But you know,

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Speaker 3: kid the late knockout against Usman. It's not to say

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Speaker 3: his effectiveness drops off in the late rounds. I just

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Speaker 3: do think he becomes more vulnerable the longer the fight goes.

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Speaker 3: And if the Laala is able to push a pace,

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Speaker 3: tire him out, force him to consistently defend takedowns, I

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Speaker 3: think the fight momentum could swing in the later rounds

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Speaker 3: because I do think the Lall has the better gas tank.

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Speaker 3: That's the one area I would give him an advantage in.

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Speaker 3: We didn't see it in that first fight because the

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Speaker 3: fight ended inside of five minutes, but and also Ballall

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Speaker 3: on short notice that day, like now, coming in off

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Speaker 3: of a full camp, fully prepared for this fight. That's

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Speaker 3: the one way I see him winning is potentially stealing

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Speaker 3: the fight late, either with a laid finish or just

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Speaker 3: getting the final three rounds with wrestling. But I think

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Speaker 3: it's a very low percentage outcome, and the way I'd

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Speaker 3: prefer to bet this fight is Leon on the finish

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Speaker 3: only money line at minus two sixty five, the same

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Speaker 3: price essentially as his regular money line, I give him

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Speaker 3: substantially more finishing equity in this fight if he's the finisher,

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Speaker 3: if the fight finishes, I should say I think forty

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Speaker 3: percent of the time, forty percent of Leon's condition is

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Speaker 3: a finish. I'd say closer to fifteen percent of Blall's

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Speaker 3: as a finish.

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Speaker 4: So maybe you know.

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Speaker 3: The pricing relative to how i'd price that out or

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Speaker 3: how I projected that out is right at minus two

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Speaker 3: sixty five. But I really just don't see finishing him. Yeah,

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Speaker 3: I think it would be one of the biggest surprises

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Speaker 3: in recent memory if Edwards gets finished by Thelall in England.

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Speaker 3: So Leon finished only money line his knockout p interest

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Speaker 3: me as well at plus three thirty. I just thought

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Speaker 3: he showed very little respect for Bilall striking in that

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Speaker 3: first fight. He was really walking him down. Leon is

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Speaker 3: normally very patient and he was super aggressive. Granted that

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Speaker 3: was in the APEX smaller cage, going to force action

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Speaker 3: a little bit more, but it seemed to me he

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Speaker 3: had a different mentality in that fight. He was much

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Speaker 3: more aggressive and coming forward much more freely than he

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Speaker 3: normally does against opponents. I really just didn't seem like

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Speaker 3: he respected anything that Blall was throwing at him, so

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Speaker 3: Leon inside the distance and then his finish only one

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Speaker 3: line the way.

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Speaker 4: Okay, excellent.

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Speaker 1: So for this welterweight title fight, Billy, total rounds is

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Speaker 1: priced at four and a half and that kind of

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Speaker 1: lends to something you guys have talked about before, Billy,

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Speaker 1: it seems based on your luck ratings right up as

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Speaker 1: well over at Action network dot Com, there are a

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Speaker 1: lot of ways that you might want to play this

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Speaker 1: particular fight.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm kind of all over the place.

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Speaker 1: That's kind of what I was getting at. You're all

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Speaker 1: over the place, but you said it not.

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Speaker 4: Me fair enough.

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Speaker 5: But yeah, no, I mean if this weren't a main event,

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Speaker 5: probably wouldn't be one. I'd be betting at all, which

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Speaker 5: you don't have to bet man events just because I

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Speaker 5: had the last fight on the card.

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Speaker 4: Right. If you don't see you have the edge.

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Speaker 5: I was kind of interested if yeah, if the line

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Speaker 5: swung anymore where you could get a better price on

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Speaker 5: the Law'll be kind of interested because he is underrated.

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Speaker 5: He said about the first fight that it was part

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Speaker 5: of the strategy and he was going to build as

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Speaker 5: the fight went on.

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Speaker 4: He was conserving energy I don't know how true that is.

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Speaker 5: You kind of have to say that when you're getting

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Speaker 5: into a rematch against the guy who took the round

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Speaker 5: from you. As of right now, I've got two angles.

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Speaker 5: I like Leon Edwards by decision at plus one hundred.

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Speaker 5: My thought here is since becoming the champion, he's been

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Speaker 5: markedly less aggressive and trying to retain his belt. And

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Speaker 5: that makes a certain bit of sense, because when you're

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Speaker 5: working to a title shot, you have to impress people

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Speaker 5: enough that they give you a title shot. Once you

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Speaker 5: have the belt, you just have to keep winning fights

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Speaker 5: and you keep getting those pay per viewpoints on your

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Speaker 5: check at the end of the night. So I think

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Speaker 5: there's an element of that Where's it's the GSP thing

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Speaker 5: we're talking about GSP off air George Saint Pierre, a

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Speaker 5: champion was taking the smartest, safest path to retaining his belt,

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Speaker 5: not necessarily hunting for finishes or hunting for aggressive things.

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Speaker 4: I see a little bit of that with Edwards.

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Speaker 5: Then along the same lines, if you like Balal, the

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Speaker 5: plus five and a half point spread kind of aligns

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Speaker 5: with what Sean said, where if he's going to have success,

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Speaker 5: it's going to be later steal a round or two. Honestly,

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Speaker 5: maybe just win some rounds with some kind of boring

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Speaker 5: cage pushing or top control. Blall's never been the most

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Speaker 5: exciting fighter, which is why it took him so long

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Speaker 5: to get a title fight. But he's got it now,

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Speaker 5: so who cares about being exciting? So it just depends on,

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Speaker 5: you know, if you're confident and want to root for

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Speaker 5: Leon Edwards.

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Speaker 4: By decision to even money I think is fairly logical.

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Speaker 5: And then on the other side of that, plus five

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Speaker 5: and a half is minus one ten, so I prefer

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Speaker 5: that to his money line. It's one of those fights

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Speaker 5: where I think Bellall does better than the money line implies,

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Speaker 5: but it's really hard to see him winning it out right,

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Speaker 5: So how else are you going to better?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean he's the guy with grappling upside of

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Speaker 3: plus money like it's you know, that's the pretty standard

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Speaker 3: way we would lean. I just I see him getting

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Speaker 3: taken down. I just don't see him holding them for

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Speaker 3: very long. Leon was scrambling up from Usman, who is

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Speaker 3: better top control, and I just think it's a bad

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Speaker 3: matchup for Bolall. Leon's just the bigger, better athlete, and

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Speaker 3: Ballall has been bullying guys who are older, you know,

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Speaker 3: on the decline late in their careers. He's the older

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Speaker 3: fighter here. Leon is the quicker, better, more explosive athlete.

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Speaker 3: Just it's it's such a shift in style, not in style,

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Speaker 3: but in in athleticism relative to what Bolall has been

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Speaker 3: facing in his recent fights. He's he's finally not the

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Speaker 3: better athlete.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, and I truly think his ceiling here is like

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Speaker 5: a very boring, grinding out fight where he doesn't have

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Speaker 5: so which we're finished only money line makes a ton

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Speaker 5: of sense if you're comfortable laying that much juice, because

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Speaker 5: Ballall's ceiling is like everyone booing as he slowly grinds

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Speaker 5: him down along the fence for twenty five straight minutes.

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Speaker 3: Maybe you know, Ballall by split might be an interesting

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Speaker 3: prop to poke if you liked the ball side, because

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Speaker 3: that that seems like a large part of his win

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Speaker 3: equity is winning a very tight decision and on the road,

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Speaker 3: you know you're likely to get one scorecard for Leon

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Speaker 3: if it is close fight.

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Speaker 1: Okay, onto the heavyweight title fight. We have Tom Aspinall

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Speaker 1: is the significant favorite over minus four hundred and Curtis

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Speaker 1: Blades at plus three twenty the round prop at just

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Speaker 1: one and a half rounds, very similar to Edwards and Muhammad.

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Speaker 1: You can get that five and a half, the plus

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Speaker 1: five and a half or the minus five and a

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Speaker 1: half as it pertains to the spread for the fight.

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Speaker 1: All right, Sorello, what do you think of this one

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Speaker 1: here as far as how you want to approach it?

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Speaker 3: Yes, this is another rematch from July of twenty twenty two.

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Speaker 3: Tom Aspinall blew his knee out fifteen seconds into the fight,

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Speaker 3: so they're going to rematch now. But Aspinall was about

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Speaker 3: minus one seventy in that first fight. Now a couple

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Speaker 3: of years later he is minus four hundred. What has changed. Nothing?

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Speaker 3: He won and room belt, and I think he's likely

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Speaker 3: or the likeliest outcome here is Aspinall to win in

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Speaker 3: round one, like he does in most of his fights.

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Speaker 3: But Tom Aspinall is zero to two past the seven

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Speaker 3: and a half minute markets where. Granted those fights were

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Speaker 3: in twenty fifteen and twenty sixteen, a long time ago.

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Speaker 3: I'm sure he's leveled up substantially since then. But even

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Speaker 3: in his fight against Andre Erlowski went for takedown immediately

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Speaker 3: in round two because he was puffing and puffing a

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Speaker 3: little bit. You know, I don't think his cardio is fantastic,

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Speaker 3: but he has tremendous athleticism for heavyweight. He's so much quicker,

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Speaker 3: moving faster with the hands than most of these guys

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Speaker 3: at heavyweight because he literally moves like a two hundred

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Speaker 3: and sixty five pound middleweight. He's just quicker. And Blades

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Speaker 3: is the better wrestler, but Tom has the better jiu jitsu.

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Speaker 3: Comes from a jiu jitsu base. His dad would believe

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Speaker 3: was a jiu jitsu champion, but his boxing is his

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Speaker 3: best skill, and Blades is often too comfortable striking, especially early.

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Speaker 3: Curtis Blade should try to wrestle from the outset, get

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Speaker 3: on top of him immediately and try to tire him out,

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Speaker 3: drag him to deeper waters. He's probably not going to.

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Speaker 3: He's probably going to play punchy kicky for a little bit,

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Speaker 3: and if he does, I think he gets knocked out

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Speaker 3: within the first two and a half minutes. He doesn't

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Speaker 3: have a good chin, and Tom connects with everybody. He

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Speaker 3: finds his range before the fight even starts. You'll see

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Speaker 3: when they well, actually it's not yeah, they will probably

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Speaker 3: bring them to the center of the cage for like

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Speaker 3: the ceremonial referee introductions right that they do before title fights.

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Speaker 3: So Tom in that moment always puts his hand on

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Speaker 3: his opponent's shoulder, and it looks like this friendly gesture.

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Speaker 3: He's just gauging range. And he's able to do it

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Speaker 3: against pretty much everybody. I think Pavlovich or somebody like

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Speaker 3: put the hand off the shoulder because they caught onto it.

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Speaker 3: But yeah, he's very intelligent. He's a very educated striker.

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Speaker 3: But I can't ignore the price adjustment relative to the

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Speaker 3: first fight. I mean, Blades went from plus one seventy

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Speaker 3: to plus four hundred plus three hundred. So I think

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Speaker 3: his biggest wing condition for Blades is getting out of

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Speaker 3: that first round and flipping the tide in his favor

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Speaker 3: against the tiring opponent. So live after round one is

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Speaker 3: where i'd target Curtis Blades. I'd love to bet asphall

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Speaker 3: round one into a live bet on Blades. The pricious

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Speaker 3: isn't good. It's minus one ten. I'm Tom aspinal to

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Speaker 3: win inside a round one again, I think it's the

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Speaker 3: likeliest wing condition by far, but I don't know if

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Speaker 3: I want to lay minus one ten on a fighter

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Speaker 3: to win in the first rounds. That's a little Harry.

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Speaker 3: I'd almost rather lay juice on the under one and

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Speaker 3: a half and get the stem starting potentially back on

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Speaker 3: the feet at the start of round two as well,

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Speaker 3: but wouldn't chase the ko prop either. You know, if

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Speaker 3: Blades is gonna grapple Tom could submit him. Tom is

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Speaker 3: really good jiu jitsu. We just don't see it coming

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Speaker 3: to play very often because he's usually knocking people out

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Speaker 3: very quickly. But yeah, I think the story of this

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Speaker 3: fight is clearly the price adjustment relative to the first fight,

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Speaker 3: and what the hell happens if this gets outside a

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Speaker 3: round one? And I think the answer is Curtis Blades

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Speaker 3: is the side, So Blades, I think Blades are path

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Speaker 3: from a moneyline perspective for sure, aspinall finished props and

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Speaker 3: then live bet on Blade. What do you think, Billy?

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Speaker 1: I mean, you think this is a pretty fair priced

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Speaker 1: fight right now with the current price, and Aspell's number

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Speaker 1: has gone up since you posted your luck ratings too.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, it's moved enough that I don't think I would

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Speaker 5: still say it's exactly a fair price. At the same time,

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Speaker 5: I'm not rushing out to bat Curtis Blades' money line.

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Speaker 5: The one thing that has changed, at least that we

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Speaker 5: could see is both of those guys fought Sergei Pavlovitch.

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Speaker 5: Since they fought each other, aspinall knocked out Pavlovich, Blades

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Speaker 5: was knocked out by Pavlovich. I'm not trying to do

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Speaker 5: mma math, but if you're adjusting your power rankings or

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Speaker 5: whatever in your head.

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Speaker 4: That plays a factor.

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Speaker 5: But no, I totally agree with Sean's logic here, and

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Speaker 5: I'm thinking along the same lines. It's a bit of

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Speaker 5: a cop out beat. I'm gonna own this. But Blade's

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Speaker 5: in the decision only market at minus one forty. I

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Speaker 5: think he should be like minus one thousand in the decision.

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Speaker 5: Not really, but he should be hugely favored in the

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Speaker 5: decision only because ask yourself, if I told you ahead

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Speaker 5: of time this fight one hundred percent gets to a decision,

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Speaker 5: what did that fight look like? It looked like Curtis

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Speaker 5: Blades boring wrestling and holding them along the fence, because

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Speaker 5: if they're doing anything exciting, it certainly favors Aspenall.

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Speaker 4: I'm the longer shot.

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Speaker 5: You mentioned it as well, Sean, But Tom Aspital by

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Speaker 5: sub pretty big plus money. He's one of the few

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Speaker 5: heavyweights that even tries to go for submissions. You know,

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Speaker 5: most of the guys will just try to use grappling

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Speaker 5: to get on top and punch, and especially in his

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Speaker 5: regional fights, I love the kind of submissions he goes for.

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Speaker 5: It's kind of heavyweight only stuff where I'm just powering

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Speaker 5: through your arm because I'm bigger and stronger and longer

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Speaker 5: than you.

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Speaker 4: But he doesn't give up the position to get a submission.

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Speaker 5: He's not diving for armbars, he's not stepping out of

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Speaker 5: a mount for heading arm chokes, which can sometimes get

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Speaker 5: guys caught.

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Speaker 4: I like that element of his game.

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Speaker 5: I think if you want just something fun and you

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Speaker 5: could play that with the Blades's decision only obviously and

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Speaker 5: hopefully get it refunded, that's one that I'd be interested

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Speaker 5: in as well. But yeah, Blades Live makes a ton

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Speaker 5: of sense. The decision only, even if Blades wins, probably

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Speaker 5: gets voided, because you'd imagine if he makes it that

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Speaker 5: far round three, four or five, he'd probably get a

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Speaker 5: finish somewhere in there. But again, if it goes to

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Speaker 5: a decision, how did we get there? I think it's

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Speaker 5: pretty clearly Curtis Blades on top for most of the fight.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean the fight's minus one thy ten inside

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Speaker 3: the distance, it's you know, ten percent chance that that

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Speaker 3: bet even probably activates at any point. No, I think

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Speaker 3: that's that's a sharp batt Billy. And if Aspenall, because

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Speaker 3: if Aspinall is doing enough to win a decision, if

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Speaker 3: he's landing enough damage to win a decision, he's probably

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Speaker 3: knocking Blades out. Like Blades isn't surviving that damage for

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Speaker 3: twenty five minutes. So yeah, I completely agree with the

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Speaker 3: assessment of the decision only line Blades should be minus

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Speaker 3: two fifty.

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Speaker 1: We'll stay on the main card and just we're crow

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Speaker 1: way to the featherweight fight between Arnold Allen and Cha Kads,

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Speaker 1: who is plus one to eighty on the money line.

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Speaker 1: We'll figure we'll just do that before we move on

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Speaker 1: to the dogs and props and then best bets.

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Speaker 4: We'll just stay right in line.

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Speaker 1: So there's a bit of an age discrepancy here, Zarrillo,

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Speaker 1: Cha Kads is thirty five, Arnold Allen is thirty. So

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Speaker 1: what do you what does your analysis tell you here?

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Speaker 1: What does your model tell you?

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Speaker 4: For this one.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, Allen needs to grapple in order to cover his

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Speaker 3: price tag in this fight, because if he just decides

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Speaker 3: to strike it out with Gigas Goods for fifteen minutes,

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Speaker 3: it's going to be extremely competitive, if not favored.

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Speaker 4: Giga.

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Speaker 3: Gigas longer is a foreign treach advantage on the arms

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Speaker 3: in terms of punching, he also has I'm sure the

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Speaker 3: longer legs as well, and that is where he makes

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Speaker 3: his mark is he's the better kicker in this matchup.

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Speaker 3: He's one of the best kickers in the sport, and

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Speaker 3: Alan doesn't really throw a ton of light kicks. You

349
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Speaker 3: sort of have a guy mostly kicking against the guy

350
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Speaker 3: mostly throwing punches. Now, Allen is the hometown fighter, landing

351
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Speaker 3: the head strikes going to be getting more oohs and

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Speaker 3: ahs from the crowd and probably more deference from the judges,

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Speaker 3: you know, in those straight exchanges. He's also younger, it's

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Speaker 3: the more explosive athlete, hits a little bit harder. But

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Speaker 3: if he wants to actually look like a minus two

356
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Speaker 3: twenty favorite, he should wrestle. Because Giga comes from glory.

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Speaker 3: He's spent most of his professional fighting career as a kickboxer,

358
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Speaker 3: and the takedowns and the grappling defense, and all that

359
00:17:19,320 --> 00:17:22,399
Speaker 3: stuff was added in later in his career, and some

360
00:17:22,640 --> 00:17:25,199
Speaker 3: god immediately taken down by Calvin Cater And once you

361
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Speaker 3: take Giga down, he starts to tie arout a little

362
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Speaker 3: bit too. He doesn't have the best cardio either. He's

363
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Speaker 3: also late in his thirties coming off of a groin injury.

364
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Speaker 3: Who knows how much cardio work he was able to

365
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Speaker 3: put in for this fight. So I think the stylistic,

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Speaker 3: the spot, all of it favors Alan. I just don't

367
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Speaker 3: love him having to cover a minus two twenty minus

368
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Speaker 3: two to fifty price tag by grappling, considering he hasn't

369
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Speaker 3: had to grapple against anybody in a long time, or

370
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Speaker 3: hasn't had the ability to grapple against any of his

371
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Speaker 3: opponents in a long time. He's mostly been getting guys

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Speaker 3: he's gonna end up striking it out with. So I

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Speaker 3: don't like betting. Is Billy and I discussed before the podcast.

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Speaker 3: Billy said it doesn't. Billy doesn't like laying juice on

375
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Speaker 3: a guy to do something that they haven't done before

376
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Speaker 3: that they don't regularly. Do you know if Allen was

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Speaker 3: plus one eighty, and I'm like, he just needs to

378
00:18:12,200 --> 00:18:15,200
Speaker 3: grapple to win this fight. All that absolutely mine is

379
00:18:15,240 --> 00:18:18,600
Speaker 3: two twenty different story betting on him to do something

380
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Speaker 3: that he's not typically implementing in his game plan. So

381
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Speaker 3: see a lot of Allen submission bets this week. I

382
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Speaker 3: get it because that's where the grappling upside lies. It's

383
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Speaker 3: just not something that he really goes for. So I'm

384
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Speaker 3: worried he's going to make this fight closer than it

385
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Speaker 3: needs to be. But if I'm picking two guys this

386
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Speaker 3: weekend who I think are pretty safe favorites and I

387
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Speaker 3: want to stick them into parlay together, it will probably

388
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Speaker 3: be Leon Edwards and Arnold Allen, two guys just looking

389
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Speaker 3: at the card initially like which do I think are

390
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Speaker 3: the two safest guys to win. I think it might

391
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Speaker 3: be them, So may have a parlay ultimately with Leon

392
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Speaker 3: and Arnold Allen, but we'll see. I don't want to

393
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Speaker 3: force anything and it'll probably be small if anything. But yeah,

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Speaker 3: I like Alan to win the fight. I think the

395
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Speaker 3: UFC wants to give him a win coming off a

396
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Speaker 3: two tough fights against Mostar Evil Ev and Max Holloway,

397
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Speaker 3: both of which he was extremely competitive in so it

398
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Speaker 3: would be odd to see him take a third straight

399
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Speaker 3: loss here considering you know, the levels rose too and

400
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Speaker 3: the quality fighter I think he is. But he can

401
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Speaker 3: make it tougher than it needs to be.

402
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Speaker 1: All Right, Billy, what do you think Chakad's and Allen

403
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Speaker 1: priced two and a half rounds as well.

404
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Speaker 5: Yeah, I'm tempted to pull the trigger on Giga here,

405
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Speaker 5: but there's a couple things holding me back. One is

406
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Speaker 5: the torn growing that he suffered in December, Sewn alluded to.

407
00:19:36,720 --> 00:19:39,320
Speaker 5: He's supposed to fight last December, pulled out for that reason.

408
00:19:39,720 --> 00:19:41,840
Speaker 5: I have no idea whether that was like a severe

409
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Speaker 5: off the bone whatever thing where he couldn't train it all,

410
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Speaker 5: or a fairly minor injury.

411
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Speaker 4: We just don't know.

412
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Speaker 5: The other thing is Giga's kicking game is going to

413
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Speaker 5: be trickier against Arnold Allen, who primarily fights softball, because

414
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Speaker 5: by turning the opposite way, he's shielding that liver that

415
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Speaker 5: Giga likes to kick. That makes it a little bit

416
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Speaker 5: tougher to do the stuff he normally does. Yeah, beyond that,

417
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Speaker 5: it's I'll take plus money on a guy executing a

418
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Speaker 5: game plan that we're not confident he's gonna do, not

419
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Speaker 5: gonna lay juice. We see this like football betters and

420
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Speaker 5: fantasy players all the time, is if the coach would

421
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Speaker 5: have just thrown like he should have. We're not betting

422
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Speaker 5: on what they should do. We're bettering on what they

423
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Speaker 5: think they will do. In this case, in front of

424
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Speaker 5: a home crowd all fired up, is Arnold Dwelling gonna

425
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Speaker 5: get in there and brawl at least a little bit? Probably,

426
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Speaker 5: So it's a pass for me for those reasons. But yeah,

427
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Speaker 5: I'd be tempted on Giga if there weren't some drawbacks

428
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Speaker 5: and some questions about his fitness.

429
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Speaker 3: Right now on the feet, I should mention Alan just

430
00:20:33,960 --> 00:20:36,520
Speaker 3: needs the crowd them, you know, eliminate them, reach advantage.

431
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Speaker 3: You have the power advantage, and he's happy to get

432
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Speaker 3: inside and brawl. The Dan Hooker fight was an all timer,

433
00:20:43,280 --> 00:20:45,639
Speaker 3: so I think he just needs the crowdom. He's going

434
00:20:45,680 --> 00:20:47,480
Speaker 3: to strike it out. Just don't stand at range and

435
00:20:47,520 --> 00:20:50,240
Speaker 3: let him kick. You get in his face and pressure

436
00:20:50,320 --> 00:20:52,399
Speaker 3: him and make him go backwards where he can't kick it.

437
00:20:54,520 --> 00:20:55,320
Speaker 4: All. Right, there you go.

438
00:20:55,400 --> 00:20:58,280
Speaker 1: So there's another main main event, our main card breakdown

439
00:20:58,320 --> 00:21:02,520
Speaker 1: from the guys. Okay, consensus underdog for the cart this week,

440
00:21:02,800 --> 00:21:04,840
Speaker 1: Zarello Rodriguez is the target.

441
00:21:04,840 --> 00:21:11,600
Speaker 3: Why Gregory Hobocop Rodriguez Barack Obama's doppelganger. We love RoboCop

442
00:21:11,600 --> 00:21:14,560
Speaker 3: around here, and I think if this is just a

443
00:21:14,600 --> 00:21:17,920
Speaker 3: striking fight, it's kind of a coin flip where Rodriguez

444
00:21:17,920 --> 00:21:20,399
Speaker 3: has the lesser chin, which is why you would favor Duncan.

445
00:21:20,800 --> 00:21:25,360
Speaker 3: Duncan better hardware, longer reach. Well, Gregory has a severe

446
00:21:25,400 --> 00:21:28,760
Speaker 3: grappling advantage here and defaulting back to grappling advantage of

447
00:21:28,840 --> 00:21:32,520
Speaker 3: plus money. But as I stated first, like this, if

448
00:21:32,560 --> 00:21:34,359
Speaker 3: they strike it out, I don't think the price is

449
00:21:34,359 --> 00:21:38,439
Speaker 3: that wrong. I'd maybe make Duncan sixty percent minus one

450
00:21:38,520 --> 00:21:40,520
Speaker 3: fifty in a pure striking fight, just because he is

451
00:21:40,560 --> 00:21:42,800
Speaker 3: the better hardware, not because he's the better technical fighter.

452
00:21:43,080 --> 00:21:45,040
Speaker 3: I mean, he is the better technical fighter, but not

453
00:21:45,080 --> 00:21:48,960
Speaker 3: for that reason because of the better hardware. But RoboCop

454
00:21:49,000 --> 00:21:53,840
Speaker 3: is the grappling upside, and he doesn't always pursue it,

455
00:21:54,040 --> 00:21:56,280
Speaker 3: but he usually pursues it at least once for fight.

456
00:21:56,359 --> 00:21:58,640
Speaker 3: The problem is he doesn't have the best cardio either,

457
00:21:58,680 --> 00:22:02,480
Speaker 3: and I think he's well aware that once he explodes,

458
00:22:02,520 --> 00:22:05,399
Speaker 3: like two or three times for takedowns. That's it for

459
00:22:05,520 --> 00:22:07,679
Speaker 3: his energy for the fight. So he tries to be

460
00:22:07,840 --> 00:22:11,399
Speaker 3: relatively conservative as to when he goes but one he

461
00:22:11,440 --> 00:22:14,200
Speaker 3: does go for the takedown and switches to the back,

462
00:22:14,320 --> 00:22:16,600
Speaker 3: he goes all out for it and it's usually his

463
00:22:16,720 --> 00:22:19,760
Speaker 3: round as a result. So I think you could almost

464
00:22:19,760 --> 00:22:23,720
Speaker 3: give him one round purely on grappling, maybe his second

465
00:22:23,800 --> 00:22:26,240
Speaker 3: round if he pursues it, if not a fifty to

466
00:22:26,280 --> 00:22:30,399
Speaker 3: fifty striking round. I think CLD at Christopher Leroy Duncan

467
00:22:30,400 --> 00:22:33,800
Speaker 3: will have the better cardio in round three, But if

468
00:22:33,840 --> 00:22:35,520
Speaker 3: he's forced to grapple here for the first time minutes,

469
00:22:35,560 --> 00:22:39,400
Speaker 3: I'm not confident in that. So I like this fight

470
00:22:39,440 --> 00:22:41,560
Speaker 3: dead inside the distance. I think it's fairly binary. I

471
00:22:41,560 --> 00:22:44,840
Speaker 3: don't like robocops chin. I also think CLD has a

472
00:22:44,840 --> 00:22:48,000
Speaker 3: big grappling deficiency and Rodriguez can take his back, choke

473
00:22:48,040 --> 00:22:52,679
Speaker 3: him out cold, taken down by our Petrosian who's kickboxer,

474
00:22:52,920 --> 00:22:58,639
Speaker 3: controlled by Protrosian Rodriguez. If he defaults to what is

475
00:22:58,760 --> 00:23:02,000
Speaker 3: his best skill against the guy who's more of a

476
00:23:02,080 --> 00:23:05,639
Speaker 3: karate style kickboxer, I think he should be favor because

477
00:23:05,680 --> 00:23:08,600
Speaker 3: I think he has in a grappling fight. I think

478
00:23:08,600 --> 00:23:11,720
Speaker 3: he's minus four hundred, minus nine hundred, you know, eighty

479
00:23:11,760 --> 00:23:14,680
Speaker 3: to ninety percent in a striking fight. I think he's

480
00:23:14,720 --> 00:23:18,720
Speaker 3: forty percent forty five percent. So add it all up.

481
00:23:18,880 --> 00:23:20,560
Speaker 3: You know this is a fifty to fifty fighter at

482
00:23:20,600 --> 00:23:23,200
Speaker 3: least much closer to it. For me, if not outright

483
00:23:23,200 --> 00:23:26,919
Speaker 3: favorite Rodriguez, I just am worried about the hardware, the age,

484
00:23:26,960 --> 00:23:30,280
Speaker 3: you know, him getting clipped and dying, which is why

485
00:23:30,400 --> 00:23:33,399
Speaker 3: I actually don't mind playing both Rodriguez and the inside

486
00:23:33,400 --> 00:23:35,920
Speaker 3: the distance because you're kind of to me free rolling,

487
00:23:35,960 --> 00:23:39,120
Speaker 3: and I would give him going back to the last

488
00:23:39,160 --> 00:23:41,920
Speaker 3: fight where I said if tom aspinall or two fights back,

489
00:23:41,920 --> 00:23:44,480
Speaker 3: if tom Asmenhaal is landing the shots that he needs

490
00:23:44,520 --> 00:23:46,840
Speaker 3: to land to win a decision, it's very likely that

491
00:23:46,920 --> 00:23:49,679
Speaker 3: he's getting the knockout. I think Sam goes for Duncan here.

492
00:23:49,720 --> 00:23:51,640
Speaker 3: If he's landing the shots that he needs to win

493
00:23:51,680 --> 00:23:55,080
Speaker 3: a decision, he's likely KOing RoboCop. You could you could

494
00:23:55,080 --> 00:23:56,919
Speaker 3: out kick him, you can away can outpoint him with

495
00:23:57,000 --> 00:24:00,280
Speaker 3: karate style fighting. But with the way Rodriguez fight and

496
00:24:00,320 --> 00:24:02,800
Speaker 3: how aggressive he is, and the fact that he usually

497
00:24:02,840 --> 00:24:05,760
Speaker 3: tends to force the issue and create chaos, and force

498
00:24:05,800 --> 00:24:08,320
Speaker 3: the under. I don't think he's going to give Duncan

499
00:24:08,600 --> 00:24:12,760
Speaker 3: that outside, comfortable point fighting style to secure like an

500
00:24:12,760 --> 00:24:16,320
Speaker 3: easy decision. It's it's going to be a war, and

501
00:24:16,359 --> 00:24:18,320
Speaker 3: that's why I like the under and Rodriguez. I just

502
00:24:18,320 --> 00:24:20,440
Speaker 3: think he has more ways to win and more ways

503
00:24:20,440 --> 00:24:22,280
Speaker 3: to potentially control the fight and slow it down.

504
00:24:22,080 --> 00:24:23,080
Speaker 4: To any chance.

505
00:24:23,160 --> 00:24:26,800
Speaker 1: To Billy that you, CLD's got some home floor advantage

506
00:24:26,800 --> 00:24:27,200
Speaker 1: here too.

507
00:24:27,640 --> 00:24:30,200
Speaker 5: Yeah, if it goes to a decision, which is very

508
00:24:30,240 --> 00:24:32,600
Speaker 5: unlikely to do, I think outside of the heavyweights, this

509
00:24:32,800 --> 00:24:38,240
Speaker 5: is the likeliest card down inside the distance. Pretty yeah, yeah,

510
00:24:38,280 --> 00:24:42,119
Speaker 5: so sure, I mean, but it probably doesn't matter. Sean,

511
00:24:42,160 --> 00:24:44,920
Speaker 5: you said almost word for word how I broke this down.

512
00:24:44,960 --> 00:24:48,920
Speaker 5: Where if they stand and strike, Rodriguez isn't drawn dead,

513
00:24:49,000 --> 00:24:51,040
Speaker 5: but he's a huge favorite as soon as it hits

514
00:24:51,119 --> 00:24:53,040
Speaker 5: the mat. The one thing I will say, in a

515
00:24:53,080 --> 00:24:55,920
Speaker 5: pure striking match, I think I would make Rodriguez probably

516
00:24:56,000 --> 00:24:57,760
Speaker 5: less than forty percent to win, like if they put

517
00:24:57,760 --> 00:24:58,960
Speaker 5: on big gloves and kickbox.

518
00:25:00,119 --> 00:25:01,960
Speaker 4: We knew this was going to be an MMA.

519
00:25:01,760 --> 00:25:04,680
Speaker 5: Fight contested mostly on the feet, but CLD had to

520
00:25:04,720 --> 00:25:06,480
Speaker 5: worry about takedowns the whole time. I think it'd be

521
00:25:06,520 --> 00:25:08,480
Speaker 5: closer to fifty to fifty sure, And that's going to

522
00:25:08,560 --> 00:25:10,720
Speaker 5: be more of the scenario here. We saw with Rodriguez

523
00:25:10,880 --> 00:25:13,040
Speaker 5: he was getting pieced up by Brad Tavares in round

524
00:25:13,040 --> 00:25:15,800
Speaker 5: two of their fight, landed a meaningless takedown at the

525
00:25:15,840 --> 00:25:17,720
Speaker 5: end of round two, and then came out in round

526
00:25:17,760 --> 00:25:19,359
Speaker 5: three and looked way better on his feet.

527
00:25:19,760 --> 00:25:21,520
Speaker 4: Well, why is that. It's not because his cardio is

528
00:25:21,560 --> 00:25:21,880
Speaker 4: so good.

529
00:25:21,960 --> 00:25:24,600
Speaker 5: It's because all of a sudden, Tavares was like, oh no,

530
00:25:24,680 --> 00:25:26,840
Speaker 5: I have to worry about that. I can't open up

531
00:25:26,840 --> 00:25:28,640
Speaker 5: with big strikes. I can't be heavy on my front

532
00:25:28,720 --> 00:25:31,400
Speaker 5: leg and checking stuff. I have to worry about the takedown.

533
00:25:31,760 --> 00:25:33,560
Speaker 5: I think it's going to be a similar dynamic here

534
00:25:33,560 --> 00:25:36,320
Speaker 5: where I need to see him land one early, even

535
00:25:36,400 --> 00:25:39,080
Speaker 5: if he doesn't do too much with it, because it

536
00:25:39,160 --> 00:25:41,680
Speaker 5: changes the whole dynamic of the striking after that as well.

537
00:25:42,040 --> 00:25:45,200
Speaker 5: And yeah, I mean it's as we were just saying

538
00:25:45,200 --> 00:25:47,639
Speaker 5: with Arnold Allen, I'm getting plus one twenty on a

539
00:25:47,640 --> 00:25:51,520
Speaker 5: guy betting on him to maybe be a little bit

540
00:25:51,560 --> 00:25:54,360
Speaker 5: more aggressive or behave differently than he normally does. I'm

541
00:25:54,359 --> 00:25:56,720
Speaker 5: fine with that. At plus money, wouldn't lay the juice

542
00:25:56,720 --> 00:25:58,639
Speaker 5: on that so love g rod here. I've been on

543
00:25:58,720 --> 00:26:00,760
Speaker 5: them all week. It's one of the fights I'm looking

544
00:26:00,800 --> 00:26:02,800
Speaker 5: most forward to as well. It should be pretty entertaining.

545
00:26:03,119 --> 00:26:04,800
Speaker 3: Yeah, this is another Fight of the Night Canada. It's

546
00:26:04,800 --> 00:26:08,520
Speaker 3: pretty good card, you know. There's Yeah, the Aspenaull Blades,

547
00:26:08,600 --> 00:26:10,520
Speaker 3: like was our default fight of the night because it's

548
00:26:10,520 --> 00:26:12,760
Speaker 3: an interim title beout, But there were three or four

549
00:26:12,800 --> 00:26:15,600
Speaker 3: other fights that had we been debating which one did

550
00:26:15,640 --> 00:26:17,560
Speaker 3: choose for Friday the Night would have been in consideration

551
00:26:17,640 --> 00:26:19,480
Speaker 3: for me. So this is one of them for sure.

552
00:26:20,359 --> 00:26:22,760
Speaker 5: It's a very good card. It's like half of an

553
00:26:22,800 --> 00:26:25,080
Speaker 5: excellent card. It's like half of UFC three hundred. Where

554
00:26:25,119 --> 00:26:27,720
Speaker 5: there's some of the early prelims it's like, wow, it's

555
00:26:27,880 --> 00:26:29,800
Speaker 5: getting a little rough here at the bottom. But yeah,

556
00:26:29,800 --> 00:26:31,360
Speaker 5: if you want to tune in a little bit later

557
00:26:31,359 --> 00:26:32,600
Speaker 5: for this one, it might be a good one to

558
00:26:32,840 --> 00:26:33,399
Speaker 5: skip this.

559
00:26:33,440 --> 00:26:35,960
Speaker 3: Stuck Cop and Macaia on the prelims as well, spread

560
00:26:36,000 --> 00:26:36,680
Speaker 3: it out a little bit.

561
00:26:37,160 --> 00:26:40,840
Speaker 1: There's a consensus dog Gregory Rodriguez against Cold. The Action

562
00:26:40,920 --> 00:26:43,920
Speaker 1: Network podcast Everybody is Brought to You by bet MGM

563
00:26:44,040 --> 00:26:45,960
Speaker 1: used the bonus code action when signing up to get

564
00:26:46,040 --> 00:26:48,840
Speaker 1: up to fifteen hundred dollars back in bonus bets if

565
00:26:48,880 --> 00:26:56,480
Speaker 1: your first bet does not win. For new users in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan,

566
00:26:56,840 --> 00:27:01,000
Speaker 1: New Jersey, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia,

567
00:27:01,040 --> 00:27:01,680
Speaker 1: and Wyoming.

568
00:27:02,040 --> 00:27:03,080
Speaker 4: Terms and conditions apply.

569
00:27:03,119 --> 00:27:05,520
Speaker 1: It must be twenty one plus gambling problem called one

570
00:27:05,600 --> 00:27:09,280
Speaker 1: eight hundred gambler. Let's go to Let's go to props Zorilla.

571
00:27:09,840 --> 00:27:11,280
Speaker 1: Where are we finding value.

572
00:27:10,960 --> 00:27:13,840
Speaker 3: In the prop market? Yeah? Finally betting on an Englishman

573
00:27:14,119 --> 00:27:17,560
Speaker 3: Nathaniel Wood round two, round three, plus four, thirty plus

574
00:27:17,600 --> 00:27:20,399
Speaker 3: six fifty respectively. And then also maybe this fight to

575
00:27:20,480 --> 00:27:23,600
Speaker 3: end inside the distance or the under because Wood does

576
00:27:23,600 --> 00:27:25,560
Speaker 3: get hurt in every fight. He doesn't have the best shin.

577
00:27:25,720 --> 00:27:27,719
Speaker 3: He's a one to thirty five er now fighting up

578
00:27:27,720 --> 00:27:29,560
Speaker 3: at one forty five, where he's a little bit small

579
00:27:31,040 --> 00:27:33,720
Speaker 3: and his opponent, Daniel Pinaedo, is the bigger, stronger man

580
00:27:33,800 --> 00:27:35,920
Speaker 3: on paper, they have the same height reach, but I

581
00:27:35,960 --> 00:27:38,920
Speaker 3: think Panada is more muscular. But Pineda is also thirty

582
00:27:38,920 --> 00:27:41,320
Speaker 3: eight years old. He hasn't fought in thirteen months. He's

583
00:27:41,359 --> 00:27:43,600
Speaker 3: the guy traveling to face the hometown fighter, so a

584
00:27:43,640 --> 00:27:45,880
Speaker 3: lot taken out of his sales here, and I would

585
00:27:45,880 --> 00:27:47,960
Speaker 3: expect his cardio to be pretty bad in round three.

586
00:27:47,960 --> 00:27:51,680
Speaker 3: It's normally not good fighting thirteen off a thirteen month

587
00:27:51,760 --> 00:27:55,160
Speaker 3: layoff in your late thirties like that, gas can't gain improving.

588
00:27:56,400 --> 00:27:58,600
Speaker 3: So I think he's live to win inside the distance

589
00:27:58,640 --> 00:28:01,399
Speaker 3: because Wood doesn't have a good ship and Panada has

590
00:28:01,440 --> 00:28:03,720
Speaker 3: some nasty submission skills as well. Could see a club

591
00:28:03,720 --> 00:28:06,160
Speaker 3: and Stub could see a straight knockout, but Panada round

592
00:28:06,160 --> 00:28:08,879
Speaker 3: one is how I bet him ten to one. I

593
00:28:08,920 --> 00:28:13,920
Speaker 3: think that would be the only way he wins consistently.

594
00:28:14,200 --> 00:28:17,520
Speaker 3: Is a quick finish. After that point, though, Wood should

595
00:28:17,520 --> 00:28:21,600
Speaker 3: take over, and he again is fighting up a weight

596
00:28:21,640 --> 00:28:25,200
Speaker 3: class from where he used to, so speed advantage should

597
00:28:25,240 --> 00:28:27,480
Speaker 3: be there, but also the cardio, the stamina of the

598
00:28:27,520 --> 00:28:30,240
Speaker 3: ability to pour it on for fifteen minutes. He does

599
00:28:30,320 --> 00:28:32,880
Speaker 3: tend to be a little bit safer than most fighters

600
00:28:32,920 --> 00:28:35,320
Speaker 3: he's not, doesn't really let it go as aggressively, tends

601
00:28:35,320 --> 00:28:37,159
Speaker 3: to be more of a point fighter, But I do

602
00:28:37,240 --> 00:28:40,920
Speaker 3: think Panada is being fed to him as the guy

603
00:28:41,000 --> 00:28:44,200
Speaker 3: who you are likeliest to finish based on the combination

604
00:28:44,760 --> 00:28:49,200
Speaker 3: of you know, cardio discrepancy, but also just the chin

605
00:28:49,440 --> 00:28:54,280
Speaker 3: relative to what Wood is actually capable of touching. The

606
00:28:54,320 --> 00:28:56,800
Speaker 3: one thing that I do want to mention, you know,

607
00:28:56,920 --> 00:28:59,440
Speaker 3: just go back through Panadas. This is Panadas, I believe

608
00:28:59,480 --> 00:29:02,360
Speaker 3: his second state in the UFC. Go through his recent fights.

609
00:29:02,760 --> 00:29:06,760
Speaker 3: They're either early finishes or he was getting i mean

610
00:29:07,040 --> 00:29:10,280
Speaker 3: absolutely pummeled by Alex Casras, who has no power late

611
00:29:10,320 --> 00:29:12,280
Speaker 3: in round three of that fight. I think there's some

612
00:29:12,280 --> 00:29:14,200
Speaker 3: reps who would have step in and stopped that one.

613
00:29:14,720 --> 00:29:16,760
Speaker 3: He was on his way to getting finished by Andre

614
00:29:16,840 --> 00:29:19,360
Speaker 3: Feeley prior to a foul and that fight turning into

615
00:29:19,440 --> 00:29:21,920
Speaker 3: a no contest. So you just look back through his

616
00:29:22,000 --> 00:29:24,800
Speaker 3: recent run in the UFC, it aligns with what you

617
00:29:24,840 --> 00:29:28,680
Speaker 3: would expect everything either a Pinata finish or on his

618
00:29:28,760 --> 00:29:32,000
Speaker 3: way to getting finished, if not dominated down the stretch.

619
00:29:32,160 --> 00:29:34,560
Speaker 3: I think Wood round three is actually the likeliest outcome,

620
00:29:35,200 --> 00:29:37,959
Speaker 3: maybe even a Wood round three or by decision, we're

621
00:29:37,960 --> 00:29:39,400
Speaker 3: not going to play that Wood round two plus four

622
00:29:39,560 --> 00:29:42,560
Speaker 3: thirty and round three plus six to fifty respectively, and

623
00:29:42,560 --> 00:29:45,520
Speaker 3: then maybe try to sprinkle in some fight ends inside

624
00:29:45,520 --> 00:29:49,520
Speaker 3: the distance to cover myself in the event that Wood

625
00:29:49,520 --> 00:29:51,720
Speaker 3: does get clipped in round one, so would finish props

626
00:29:51,760 --> 00:29:55,160
Speaker 3: violence props in this fight. I think somebody ends it

627
00:29:55,240 --> 00:29:57,240
Speaker 3: one way or another. Pinata earlier, would later.

628
00:29:57,800 --> 00:30:00,160
Speaker 1: And inside the distance has been the theme of this

629
00:30:00,240 --> 00:30:03,000
Speaker 1: card so far. Billy, how about you for props?

630
00:30:03,680 --> 00:30:05,360
Speaker 5: Yeah, I'm gonna go through mine pretty quick because I

631
00:30:05,400 --> 00:30:08,000
Speaker 5: wanted to talk about Sean's I just last night put

632
00:30:08,040 --> 00:30:11,160
Speaker 5: in the round three slash decision bat on Nathaniel Wood

633
00:30:11,560 --> 00:30:13,760
Speaker 5: did the full breakdown of Action Network. But see that

634
00:30:14,040 --> 00:30:16,280
Speaker 5: almost one hundred percent the same way it's pineda early.

635
00:30:16,320 --> 00:30:19,480
Speaker 5: It's got some juice. Also tested positive for the juice

636
00:30:19,520 --> 00:30:22,720
Speaker 5: on numerous occasions. Don't know how stringent the drug testing

637
00:30:22,800 --> 00:30:25,400
Speaker 5: is now, but getting yourself all big and jacked up

638
00:30:25,440 --> 00:30:27,800
Speaker 5: doesn't do wonders for the cardio, but it does make

639
00:30:27,880 --> 00:30:30,520
Speaker 5: you more dangerous early. So all of those things along

640
00:30:30,560 --> 00:30:32,720
Speaker 5: the same line.

641
00:30:32,880 --> 00:30:33,520
Speaker 4: Although when I'm.

642
00:30:33,440 --> 00:30:36,040
Speaker 5: Looking at Sam Patterson versus Key for Crosby, NZ and

643
00:30:36,120 --> 00:30:39,640
Speaker 5: KO plus one eighty five, I broke down Sam Patterson

644
00:30:39,680 --> 00:30:42,040
Speaker 5: on the Contender series like two years ago, and I

645
00:30:42,080 --> 00:30:44,360
Speaker 5: was saying, he's a big, tall guy, but his defense

646
00:30:44,480 --> 00:30:47,040
Speaker 5: is to pull back here instead of talking to Chin

647
00:30:47,120 --> 00:30:48,959
Speaker 5: and come in see that a lot from guys who

648
00:30:48,960 --> 00:30:51,120
Speaker 5: are used to always being taller than everyone. And then

649
00:30:51,120 --> 00:30:54,360
Speaker 5: his first actual UFC fight, he just got absolutely obliterated.

650
00:30:54,680 --> 00:30:55,280
Speaker 4: Chinny guy.

651
00:30:55,960 --> 00:30:58,960
Speaker 5: He typically wins by submission and he's a big favorite here,

652
00:30:59,120 --> 00:31:01,840
Speaker 5: but he could pick up a TKO on the ground,

653
00:31:01,840 --> 00:31:04,280
Speaker 5: he could use his reached out point a much lower

654
00:31:04,360 --> 00:31:07,200
Speaker 5: level competition. Just surprises C plus one eighty five on

655
00:31:07,880 --> 00:31:10,040
Speaker 5: the KO side of a fight that we expect to

656
00:31:10,120 --> 00:31:11,080
Speaker 5: end inside the distance.

657
00:31:11,680 --> 00:31:12,680
Speaker 4: And then the other one fight.

658
00:31:12,720 --> 00:31:15,800
Speaker 5: I'm very much not looking forward to watching Shauna Bannon

659
00:31:15,880 --> 00:31:17,760
Speaker 5: versus Elis Rdi Lenn.

660
00:31:18,200 --> 00:31:19,880
Speaker 4: I don't know. She just made it to the UFC.

661
00:31:20,800 --> 00:31:21,360
Speaker 4: She is a.

662
00:31:23,120 --> 00:31:27,400
Speaker 5: Internet model who was once a serious fighter, got absolutely

663
00:31:27,400 --> 00:31:30,200
Speaker 5: destroyed by wy Lee Jang and then crushed some cans

664
00:31:30,200 --> 00:31:32,960
Speaker 5: while building her online personality career.

665
00:31:33,360 --> 00:31:33,719
Speaker 4: SHAWNA.

666
00:31:33,800 --> 00:31:38,360
Speaker 5: Bannon just like a taekwondo style point fighter, not a

667
00:31:38,360 --> 00:31:41,640
Speaker 5: ton of volume, very little power. I like that to

668
00:31:41,760 --> 00:31:44,320
Speaker 5: end and split her majority decision at plus three fifty

669
00:31:44,680 --> 00:31:47,360
Speaker 5: because neither of them I don't think are going to

670
00:31:47,400 --> 00:31:51,280
Speaker 5: do enough to convincingly win around or any of the rounds.

671
00:31:51,280 --> 00:31:52,600
Speaker 5: I should say, like it's just going to be a

672
00:31:52,600 --> 00:31:54,800
Speaker 5: lot of well Alice held her against the fence for

673
00:31:54,840 --> 00:31:57,400
Speaker 5: four minutes. Shawna did a cool spinning kick that barely

674
00:31:57,400 --> 00:31:59,800
Speaker 5: graised her. I don't know, give it to whoever you want.

675
00:32:00,000 --> 00:32:02,240
Speaker 5: It's plus three fifty, like don't don't bet the house

676
00:32:02,280 --> 00:32:05,080
Speaker 5: on that, but you need something to root for take

677
00:32:05,120 --> 00:32:07,960
Speaker 5: care about that fight. So something fun like that, I

678
00:32:08,000 --> 00:32:10,680
Speaker 5: think is the way to go, all right, And I.

679
00:32:10,600 --> 00:32:12,760
Speaker 1: Think that's we're gonna make our way to best bets.

680
00:32:12,800 --> 00:32:14,840
Speaker 1: We have a final bet or a best bet, Sean.

681
00:32:15,200 --> 00:32:17,080
Speaker 3: I'm not sure. I guess it depends on the prince

682
00:32:17,120 --> 00:32:20,200
Speaker 3: that I get right now. Bobby Green King Green, as

683
00:32:20,240 --> 00:32:22,320
Speaker 3: he's changed his name, He's he went the Ocho Sinker

684
00:32:22,360 --> 00:32:25,880
Speaker 3: route and officially changed his name King Green. Currently minus

685
00:32:25,880 --> 00:32:28,120
Speaker 3: one fifteen, but he opened minus one ninety in this fight.

686
00:32:28,200 --> 00:32:29,840
Speaker 3: So if I get plus money, if I get plus

687
00:32:29,840 --> 00:32:32,800
Speaker 3: one twenty on Bobby Green, it's absolutely best bet. By

688
00:32:32,840 --> 00:32:34,720
Speaker 3: the way, I'd love if he made his nickname Bobby

689
00:32:35,280 --> 00:32:38,360
Speaker 3: and he went by King Bobby Green, because because Bruce

690
00:32:38,400 --> 00:32:41,640
Speaker 3: Boer getting to announced like saying like the King softly

691
00:32:41,720 --> 00:32:44,880
Speaker 3: and then extending out the Bobby. Oh, that would be

692
00:32:44,920 --> 00:32:49,080
Speaker 3: so good. So because he Bobby Green to please make

693
00:32:49,080 --> 00:32:56,080
Speaker 3: his official nickname Bobby would be beautiful, but King Green,

694
00:32:56,880 --> 00:32:59,240
Speaker 3: as I said, open minus one ninety in this fight.

695
00:32:59,400 --> 00:33:01,160
Speaker 3: I think that's fair price, or I think that's at

696
00:33:01,240 --> 00:33:06,719
Speaker 3: least closer to the fair price than minus one p fifteen. Currently, Patty,

697
00:33:06,840 --> 00:33:10,360
Speaker 3: somehow undefeated in the UFC's been gifted in number of

698
00:33:10,480 --> 00:33:14,080
Speaker 3: soft matchups, many of which have not aged well. He

699
00:33:14,360 --> 00:33:17,640
Speaker 3: was losing the end of round three to Tony Ferguson

700
00:33:17,680 --> 00:33:20,000
Speaker 3: if that had been a five round fight. Not sure,

701
00:33:20,080 --> 00:33:23,560
Speaker 3: Tony or not sure Patty doesn't get finished there, and

702
00:33:23,600 --> 00:33:26,920
Speaker 3: that's a battle. Look for Patty pimblet you know, considering

703
00:33:26,960 --> 00:33:30,640
Speaker 3: the hype around him everything. The biggest difference here is

704
00:33:30,680 --> 00:33:33,400
Speaker 3: striking defense. Patty defense strikes at forty one percent. He

705
00:33:33,480 --> 00:33:37,080
Speaker 3: is horrible striking defense, no head movement, shin up way

706
00:33:37,120 --> 00:33:40,280
Speaker 3: in the air, just free to be hit all day.

707
00:33:40,960 --> 00:33:43,680
Speaker 3: And Bobby defense strikes at sixty two percent uses the

708
00:33:43,680 --> 00:33:48,320
Speaker 3: shoulder role. It's not as it doesn't look as effective

709
00:33:48,360 --> 00:33:50,760
Speaker 3: as sixty two percent. Because he uses the shoulder role,

710
00:33:50,800 --> 00:33:53,960
Speaker 3: he's you know, shaking his head, waving his finger when.

711
00:33:53,760 --> 00:33:54,880
Speaker 4: You do touch the shoulder.

712
00:33:54,880 --> 00:33:57,280
Speaker 3: But from the judge's KDE side, they still hear the

713
00:33:57,320 --> 00:33:59,400
Speaker 3: impact on the shoulder, They still hear the sound of it,

714
00:33:59,440 --> 00:34:01,520
Speaker 3: and if his back has turned to you, you don't

715
00:34:01,560 --> 00:34:03,040
Speaker 3: really know if it hit the hit or not. So

716
00:34:03,080 --> 00:34:05,960
Speaker 3: Bobby tends to get in a lot of close decisions

717
00:34:06,040 --> 00:34:09,080
Speaker 3: with very thin margins because of those antics and because

718
00:34:09,120 --> 00:34:13,319
Speaker 3: he does fight to his level of competition. But in

719
00:34:13,400 --> 00:34:17,080
Speaker 3: terms of this matchup, I think Bobby is just a

720
00:34:17,160 --> 00:34:20,000
Speaker 3: better version of Jared Gordon, you know, in terms of

721
00:34:20,280 --> 00:34:23,239
Speaker 3: the striking and the way this fight's gonna play out.

722
00:34:23,280 --> 00:34:26,360
Speaker 3: He has enough defensive grappling to keep the fight standing.

723
00:34:26,960 --> 00:34:29,560
Speaker 3: Gordon is the better offensive grappler, but that wasn't going

724
00:34:29,640 --> 00:34:32,960
Speaker 3: to happen against Paddy. Patty is the bigger, stronger athlete,

725
00:34:33,400 --> 00:34:36,319
Speaker 3: but way lesser cardio, and after five minutes, Bobby takes

726
00:34:36,360 --> 00:34:38,560
Speaker 3: over this fight at a very consistent degree. So if

727
00:34:38,560 --> 00:34:41,880
Speaker 3: you like Patty Patty round one, Bobby two fights removed

728
00:34:41,880 --> 00:34:44,640
Speaker 3: from that awful knockout against Jalen Turner where he was

729
00:34:44,680 --> 00:34:46,680
Speaker 3: ko to like four times and the ref didn't stop it.

730
00:34:47,239 --> 00:34:49,480
Speaker 3: He got hurt early in his last fight against Jim Miller,

731
00:34:49,640 --> 00:34:51,920
Speaker 3: but then rallied and just poured on volume on Miller

732
00:34:51,960 --> 00:34:55,360
Speaker 3: down the stretch and showed that the speed isn't gone.

733
00:34:55,400 --> 00:34:58,040
Speaker 3: You know that the ko didn't take away the athleticism,

734
00:34:58,080 --> 00:35:00,600
Speaker 3: didn't take away the speed, the coordination, and it's all

735
00:35:00,640 --> 00:35:04,719
Speaker 3: still there. He looked tremendous across that fight. So I

736
00:35:04,800 --> 00:35:07,040
Speaker 3: love Bobby Green live after round one. Year, I think

737
00:35:07,080 --> 00:35:08,959
Speaker 3: you're going to get a great price live after round

738
00:35:08,960 --> 00:35:11,640
Speaker 3: one because it's going to be a competitive round one,

739
00:35:11,640 --> 00:35:15,680
Speaker 3: and that competitive round likely goes to Patty. Patty Mayland takedowns.

740
00:35:15,719 --> 00:35:18,320
Speaker 3: You know, the combination of the grappling and the striking

741
00:35:18,360 --> 00:35:20,480
Speaker 3: and the overall effectiveness may give him the round. But

742
00:35:20,520 --> 00:35:23,320
Speaker 3: I think Bobby rallies here at a very consistent clip

743
00:35:23,360 --> 00:35:25,680
Speaker 3: if he does not get finished. So I like his

744
00:35:25,719 --> 00:35:27,960
Speaker 3: odds to win in round three fifteen to one. I

745
00:35:28,000 --> 00:35:30,080
Speaker 3: think there's a chance he gets a late finish. I

746
00:35:30,080 --> 00:35:32,640
Speaker 3: would bet probably round three or decision props as well,

747
00:35:33,120 --> 00:35:35,200
Speaker 3: and then it's live price. But I'm just going to

748
00:35:35,239 --> 00:35:37,520
Speaker 3: wait on that money line for now. Open minus one

749
00:35:37,640 --> 00:35:39,640
Speaker 3: ninety down to minus one fifteen. I think it gets

750
00:35:39,640 --> 00:35:42,560
Speaker 3: to plus money by fight day. Is more parlays, straight bets,

751
00:35:42,560 --> 00:35:45,879
Speaker 3: et cetera. Get tied up on Patty. If you want

752
00:35:45,880 --> 00:35:47,879
Speaker 3: my half kidding take of the week this, this cat

753
00:35:48,239 --> 00:35:52,080
Speaker 3: this card starting at three am Local time on the

754
00:35:52,080 --> 00:35:57,000
Speaker 3: main card, the pre Lims starting at what eleven pm

755
00:35:57,400 --> 00:35:59,920
Speaker 3: Eastern time or sorry, I should say eleven pm will

756
00:35:59,920 --> 00:36:06,279
Speaker 3: be time. It's absurd. So there's a chance that, you know,

757
00:36:07,280 --> 00:36:09,080
Speaker 3: more time throughout the day, more money to come in

758
00:36:09,120 --> 00:36:11,000
Speaker 3: on these fights, that some of these Brits just get

759
00:36:11,040 --> 00:36:13,960
Speaker 3: steamed up to pretty insane degrees. And I think Patty

760
00:36:13,960 --> 00:36:16,520
Speaker 3: Pimblet is certainly one of the ones whose price could

761
00:36:16,520 --> 00:36:19,120
Speaker 3: continue to go up or continue to take in his favor.

762
00:36:19,239 --> 00:36:22,480
Speaker 3: So yeah, I think Bobby pours the volume on him

763
00:36:22,520 --> 00:36:25,160
Speaker 3: down the stretch here. And you know Jared Gordon, the

764
00:36:25,480 --> 00:36:28,719
Speaker 3: strike differential ultimately in that fight was about three four strikes.

765
00:36:29,239 --> 00:36:31,840
Speaker 3: I think Bobby doubles him up. You know this is

766
00:36:32,040 --> 00:36:34,200
Speaker 3: one hundred to sixty on strikes or you know, one

767
00:36:34,320 --> 00:36:36,799
Speaker 3: ten to sixty on strikes. So I think he makes

768
00:36:36,840 --> 00:36:38,680
Speaker 3: it clear. I think he wins rounds two and rounds

769
00:36:38,680 --> 00:36:41,040
Speaker 3: three pretty clear, as long as he doesn't get finished early.

770
00:36:41,719 --> 00:36:44,839
Speaker 1: Billy, you want to weigh in here because you've got

771
00:36:44,880 --> 00:36:47,840
Speaker 1: Pimblet actually as an undervalued fighter right now at the

772
00:36:47,880 --> 00:36:50,480
Speaker 1: current price against mister King Green.

773
00:36:51,200 --> 00:36:53,080
Speaker 5: Well, I'm going to crack you slightly, not at the

774
00:36:53,080 --> 00:36:55,080
Speaker 5: current price when he was still plus money, which you

775
00:36:55,080 --> 00:36:55,960
Speaker 5: can't get on Pimblet.

776
00:36:56,000 --> 00:36:58,839
Speaker 4: Sure enough, it's important with this fight.

777
00:36:58,920 --> 00:37:02,640
Speaker 5: It's tough because based on resume, it's obviously King Green.

778
00:37:03,040 --> 00:37:04,680
Speaker 5: My favorite bid all week, by the way, has been

779
00:37:04,719 --> 00:37:06,839
Speaker 5: pretending not to know who people are talking about when

780
00:37:06,840 --> 00:37:09,160
Speaker 5: they say Bobby Green, because there's no fighter named Bobby

781
00:37:09,200 --> 00:37:13,640
Speaker 5: Green anymore. But yeah, on resume, it's obviously King Green. Right,

782
00:37:13,680 --> 00:37:16,880
Speaker 5: He's done more, He's looked better against better competition. He'll

783
00:37:16,880 --> 00:37:18,759
Speaker 5: be thirty eight in a month and a half. He's

784
00:37:18,800 --> 00:37:21,040
Speaker 5: flying all the way to England. Not a guy who's

785
00:37:21,080 --> 00:37:23,920
Speaker 5: always known for taking this preparation the most seriously. Anyway,

786
00:37:24,520 --> 00:37:27,000
Speaker 5: Pimblet looks a lot better physically, at least in this fight.

787
00:37:27,080 --> 00:37:28,920
Speaker 5: It's the last fight of his deal. He's trying to

788
00:37:28,920 --> 00:37:32,400
Speaker 5: make some money, trying to increase himself. The potential has

789
00:37:32,440 --> 00:37:36,000
Speaker 5: always been there for Patty, especially with the grappling, when

790
00:37:36,040 --> 00:37:38,200
Speaker 5: he takes himself seriously, when he has the cardio, when

791
00:37:38,200 --> 00:37:41,120
Speaker 5: he has the training, and also my half kidding take

792
00:37:41,280 --> 00:37:43,640
Speaker 5: if we're fighting at four am in the morning local time,

793
00:37:43,960 --> 00:37:45,319
Speaker 5: I want to bet I'm a guy who just had

794
00:37:45,360 --> 00:37:47,040
Speaker 5: twins two months ago and is getting up at four

795
00:37:47,040 --> 00:37:49,800
Speaker 5: am all the time anyway, which would be Patty pimblet

796
00:37:49,880 --> 00:37:52,000
Speaker 5: plus we got the dam strength angle, so there's a

797
00:37:52,000 --> 00:37:54,400
Speaker 5: little bit to it. I wish Sean though, if you

798
00:37:54,400 --> 00:37:57,160
Speaker 5: see plus one twenty on King Green by all means right, Like,

799
00:37:57,200 --> 00:38:00,439
Speaker 5: that's obviously the better. But I'd love to walk into

800
00:38:00,440 --> 00:38:02,720
Speaker 5: this fight with plus money tickets on both guys.

801
00:38:03,000 --> 00:38:04,200
Speaker 4: Don't lay juice on Patty.

802
00:38:04,560 --> 00:38:07,239
Speaker 5: I wouldn't lay juice on Green either, but that's my

803
00:38:07,320 --> 00:38:08,480
Speaker 5: take on it, okay.

804
00:38:09,000 --> 00:38:11,239
Speaker 1: And yeah, to your point, you did say that you

805
00:38:11,440 --> 00:38:14,640
Speaker 1: took you took Patty a plus.

806
00:38:14,360 --> 00:38:16,640
Speaker 3: Money earlier in the week, and that obviously is gone.

807
00:38:17,560 --> 00:38:18,279
Speaker 4: Okay, very good.

808
00:38:18,320 --> 00:38:19,279
Speaker 1: And by the way, I think a lot of the

809
00:38:19,280 --> 00:38:21,960
Speaker 1: sports books still have him named as Bobby, like they

810
00:38:21,960 --> 00:38:23,160
Speaker 1: haven't made that adjustment yet.

811
00:38:23,280 --> 00:38:24,800
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, okay.

812
00:38:25,120 --> 00:38:28,160
Speaker 1: That's important for people to understand that, right.

813
00:38:28,160 --> 00:38:30,920
Speaker 3: Oh absolutely, Now, when you're betting on Bobby Green, you

814
00:38:30,920 --> 00:38:32,200
Speaker 3: are in fact bank on King Greens.

815
00:38:34,000 --> 00:38:36,359
Speaker 1: All right, Philly, take us home with your final bet,

816
00:38:36,400 --> 00:38:36,920
Speaker 1: best bet.

817
00:38:37,719 --> 00:38:37,919
Speaker 4: Yeah.

818
00:38:37,920 --> 00:38:39,680
Speaker 5: I go through this one pretty quick because I didn't

819
00:38:39,680 --> 00:38:41,440
Speaker 5: do the full breakdown so anyone can read. But I

820
00:38:41,480 --> 00:38:44,439
Speaker 5: like Mohammad Makai at minus one fifty five against Manel Cop.

821
00:38:44,920 --> 00:38:47,719
Speaker 5: My kind of conspiracy theory this week, this fight was

822
00:38:47,760 --> 00:38:50,200
Speaker 5: moved from the main card to the future prelim to

823
00:38:50,280 --> 00:38:52,640
Speaker 5: the early prelim, and a bunch of money came in

824
00:38:52,680 --> 00:38:53,280
Speaker 5: on Makaiyev.

825
00:38:53,719 --> 00:38:54,600
Speaker 4: Again. My kind of.

826
00:38:54,560 --> 00:38:58,080
Speaker 5: Conspiracy theory here is that something's going on with Cop.

827
00:38:58,120 --> 00:39:01,040
Speaker 5: He's injured, wasn't gonna make weight. Whatever he made weight

828
00:39:01,160 --> 00:39:05,000
Speaker 5: we got that information, doesn't mean he's full strength. Sometimes

829
00:39:05,000 --> 00:39:06,960
Speaker 5: we see these things in mm A betting where you

830
00:39:06,960 --> 00:39:08,360
Speaker 5: see a ton of steam on a guy and some

831
00:39:08,400 --> 00:39:11,160
Speaker 5: weird stuff is happening. But also I just like the

832
00:39:11,320 --> 00:39:15,880
Speaker 5: wrestling and the game, the strategy from Makaiev. He's really good.

833
00:39:16,280 --> 00:39:18,359
Speaker 5: This is gonna sound stupid until I explain it. He's

834
00:39:18,400 --> 00:39:20,279
Speaker 5: really good at winning fights, like he does what he

835
00:39:20,320 --> 00:39:22,520
Speaker 5: needs to do to make sure he wins the fight,

836
00:39:23,120 --> 00:39:24,640
Speaker 5: and as long as he does need a knee up

837
00:39:24,640 --> 00:39:26,440
Speaker 5: the middle from Cop, I think he's in a good

838
00:39:26,440 --> 00:39:30,320
Speaker 5: position to do so. Cop is clearly the better striker,

839
00:39:30,440 --> 00:39:33,520
Speaker 5: clearly more powerful, way too big for flyweight, which is

840
00:39:33,560 --> 00:39:36,760
Speaker 5: why I said so much trouble making weight. But CoP's

841
00:39:36,760 --> 00:39:39,000
Speaker 5: a counter striker, so against the guy who's not going

842
00:39:39,040 --> 00:39:42,279
Speaker 5: to really come after him with strikes. He I think

843
00:39:42,320 --> 00:39:43,960
Speaker 5: if your cop you got to kind of just sit

844
00:39:44,040 --> 00:39:45,760
Speaker 5: back and wait to land a knee or an uppercut

845
00:39:45,800 --> 00:39:48,600
Speaker 5: on the shot is your best bet. That's tricky to do.

846
00:39:48,719 --> 00:39:50,560
Speaker 5: People always say, well, why don't you just knee him

847
00:39:50,560 --> 00:39:52,960
Speaker 5: when he shoots. It's really hard, like we don't see

848
00:39:52,960 --> 00:39:56,279
Speaker 5: it that often. For a reason, don't love laying the

849
00:39:56,360 --> 00:39:58,840
Speaker 5: juice on Makaiev because he was a much better price

850
00:39:58,880 --> 00:40:02,160
Speaker 5: at various points since this fight was announced. On the

851
00:40:02,239 --> 00:40:04,279
Speaker 5: other hand, if that much money is coming in, I'm okay.

852
00:40:04,280 --> 00:40:06,600
Speaker 5: If it might tell you something, Okay.

853
00:40:06,440 --> 00:40:07,279
Speaker 4: Very good. There you go.

854
00:40:07,360 --> 00:40:11,680
Speaker 1: There's your UFC three oh four betting breakdown. All goes

855
00:40:11,719 --> 00:40:14,520
Speaker 1: down in England this coming weekend. Again, keep an.

856
00:40:14,400 --> 00:40:15,120
Speaker 3: Eye on those times.

857
00:40:15,120 --> 00:40:17,320
Speaker 1: I mean Eastern times are fine for us, but the

858
00:40:18,360 --> 00:40:22,040
Speaker 1: local times that is it's important to throw into your handicaps,

859
00:40:22,120 --> 00:40:25,080
Speaker 1: as you guys have noted, especially for mister King Green,

860
00:40:25,080 --> 00:40:25,880
Speaker 1: who's old.

861
00:40:25,719 --> 00:40:28,200
Speaker 3: No bodyclock advantage for the British fighters either when you

862
00:40:28,480 --> 00:40:29,960
Speaker 3: really think about it, you know a lot of times

863
00:40:29,960 --> 00:40:32,040
Speaker 3: they go over to that's a good point. Yeah, Saudi

864
00:40:32,080 --> 00:40:34,879
Speaker 3: Arabia or whatever, and the Russian fighters, the fighters from Asia,

865
00:40:34,960 --> 00:40:37,360
Speaker 3: they have the bodyclock advantage that there's really no bodyclock

866
00:40:37,360 --> 00:40:39,920
Speaker 3: advantage for the local fighters here. So just something to

867
00:40:39,960 --> 00:40:44,319
Speaker 3: consider as these British fighters. Irish fighters continue to steam up.

868
00:40:44,360 --> 00:40:48,360
Speaker 3: They don't have the typical rest et cetera advantages that

869
00:40:48,480 --> 00:40:50,759
Speaker 3: they normally would. They do have the travel advantage, you know,

870
00:40:50,800 --> 00:40:53,839
Speaker 3: that's flying over that's that takes a little bit out

871
00:40:53,880 --> 00:40:56,560
Speaker 3: of your gas, thank I would imagine for the Americans.

872
00:40:56,560 --> 00:40:59,320
Speaker 3: But yeah, the bodyclock thing is not going to be

873
00:40:59,360 --> 00:41:00,000
Speaker 3: an issue this time.

874
00:41:00,640 --> 00:41:03,040
Speaker 5: Well it's tough because some of the American fighters, they're like, well,

875
00:41:03,040 --> 00:41:04,120
Speaker 5: we're fighting at normal time.

876
00:41:04,160 --> 00:41:05,440
Speaker 4: I can stand in my normal rhythm.

877
00:41:05,480 --> 00:41:08,319
Speaker 5: But it's then you flew out two weeks ago and

878
00:41:08,400 --> 00:41:11,120
Speaker 5: now you're adjusting to the different time zone. Really interesting

879
00:41:11,200 --> 00:41:14,200
Speaker 5: article by our former contributor Ben Folks on that where

880
00:41:14,200 --> 00:41:16,600
Speaker 5: he interviewed some of these guys so go check. I

881
00:41:16,600 --> 00:41:19,120
Speaker 5: think it's important to know, and he notes kind of

882
00:41:19,120 --> 00:41:22,200
Speaker 5: the discrepancies between someone like Leon Edwards who hired a

883
00:41:22,239 --> 00:41:25,400
Speaker 5: sleep coach six weeks ago or whatever, and some guys

884
00:41:25,400 --> 00:41:27,719
Speaker 5: are like, wait, it's at what time when he asked him?

885
00:41:27,760 --> 00:41:30,000
Speaker 5: So you know that that should probably factor into your

886
00:41:30,000 --> 00:41:30,879
Speaker 5: handicapping as well.

887
00:41:31,080 --> 00:41:34,040
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm sure. I'm sure there's fighters who rolled up

888
00:41:34,040 --> 00:41:36,000
Speaker 3: this week and are like, I'm fighting at three in

889
00:41:36,000 --> 00:41:40,320
Speaker 3: the morning, fighting it in the morning, what do you mean? Yeah,

890
00:41:40,400 --> 00:41:42,839
Speaker 3: the preparation from some of these athletes is not at

891
00:41:42,840 --> 00:41:44,719
Speaker 3: the level that you would expect it to be sometimes,

892
00:41:44,719 --> 00:41:47,239
Speaker 3: and it just in regards to basic information such as

893
00:41:47,280 --> 00:41:50,440
Speaker 3: what time am I fighting? So would be shocked if

894
00:41:50,480 --> 00:41:52,520
Speaker 3: there was a fighter who had that reaction this week.

895
00:41:52,680 --> 00:41:53,399
Speaker 4: Oh yeah, all.

896
00:41:53,360 --> 00:41:54,000
Speaker 3: Right, very good.

897
00:41:54,040 --> 00:41:56,680
Speaker 1: You can find Zarrillo and Billy Ward in the free

898
00:41:56,719 --> 00:41:59,839
Speaker 1: award winning Action Network AUP, especially for some of those

899
00:41:59,840 --> 00:42:04,160
Speaker 1: lives I've plays, anything they might add leading into Saturday.

900
00:42:04,480 --> 00:42:06,879
Speaker 1: You can find more UFC betting content as well from

901
00:42:06,880 --> 00:42:09,720
Speaker 1: these guys or other contributors over at the Action Network

902
00:42:09,760 --> 00:42:13,880
Speaker 1: website and then and as well in the Action Network

903
00:42:13,920 --> 00:42:16,680
Speaker 1: app for Billy Ward, Shawonzarella, Brendan Glasheen. Thanks for tuning

904
00:42:16,680 --> 00:42:20,160
Speaker 1: in to another UFC betting preview here on the Action

905
00:42:20,320 --> 00:42:24,200
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906
00:42:24,760 --> 00:42:33,480
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907
00:42:33,520 --> 00:42:34,680
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908
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909
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910
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