WEBVTT - Surveillance: Watch China Loan Demand, Miller Says 0:00:09.840 --> 0:00:13.760 Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane. Daily 0:00:13.960 --> 0:00:17.560 we bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, 0:00:18.000 --> 0:00:23.480 and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, 0:00:23.600 --> 0:00:27.400 Bloomberg dot Com, and of course on the Bloomberg. Who 0:00:27.440 --> 0:00:31.760 does George Magnus listen to? He listens to Leland Miller. 0:00:32.280 --> 0:00:35.559 Miller has come out of Washington and Lee University and 0:00:35.640 --> 0:00:41.240 carved out a career. Is the absolute definitive micro analyst 0:00:41.680 --> 0:00:44.879 of China. No One and I mean no one, folks, 0:00:45.240 --> 0:00:48.120 does it better than Leland Miller of trying to figure 0:00:48.159 --> 0:00:52.000 out what rail traffic or what electric utility rates are 0:00:52.040 --> 0:00:54.920 doing to China and what its signals. So Leland, let 0:00:54.960 --> 0:00:57.880 me get right to it and your China Beige book. 0:00:58.200 --> 0:01:03.080 What do you see of in ferior demand dynamics across 0:01:03.280 --> 0:01:07.160 Great China. Well, one of the major problems because the 0:01:06.600 --> 0:01:10.000 the last several months haven't been syncred since the beginning 0:01:10.000 --> 0:01:11.920 of the year hasn't been synchronized with the Chinese economy 0:01:11.959 --> 0:01:14.080 shutting down and then most of the rest of the 0:01:14.120 --> 0:01:16.520 world is shutting down after that, is that firms that 0:01:16.520 --> 0:01:19.080 have relied on export orders are doing really really poorly 0:01:19.160 --> 0:01:22.759 right now, which means the coast, so the interior you're seeing. 0:01:22.880 --> 0:01:25.280 You're seeing much better numbers right now in the interior 0:01:25.480 --> 0:01:29.240 simply because they're not and and there are banking on 0:01:29.280 --> 0:01:32.240 a domestic rebound, which you'll see as the as the 0:01:32.319 --> 0:01:36.160 Chinese recovery incrementally gets better over this year. So right now, 0:01:36.240 --> 0:01:39.000 China doesn't want to be relying on its interior provinces. 0:01:39.040 --> 0:01:41.120 But that's that's where the growth is right now, while 0:01:41.120 --> 0:01:44.440 the coast really feel some pain. Let's talk about Beijing 0:01:44.520 --> 0:01:47.000 Leland really really hard to get a read on what 0:01:47.080 --> 0:01:49.080 is actually happening on the ground in China at the moment. 0:01:49.160 --> 0:01:50.960 Some people have told me what's what they do, not 0:01:51.040 --> 0:01:53.320 what they say. What they say is that they've got 0:01:53.320 --> 0:01:56.760 a small outbreak of COVID infections. What they're doing is 0:01:56.800 --> 0:02:00.400 canceling flights and closing schools. Again, what's your done things 0:02:00.400 --> 0:02:02.600 at the moment? Well, yeah, if you look at the numbers, 0:02:02.800 --> 0:02:05.000 it looks like this very micro blip that you see 0:02:05.040 --> 0:02:07.080 all over the all over the world, particularly United States 0:02:07.120 --> 0:02:09.280 right now. But the important thing is it's in Beijing, 0:02:09.440 --> 0:02:12.080 and Beijing has symbolic power for the Chinese Communist Party. 0:02:12.120 --> 0:02:14.600 So they lose control of that city, then you have 0:02:14.639 --> 0:02:17.560 a potential political crisis on their hands in addition to 0:02:17.440 --> 0:02:20.720 it to economic repercussions. So what the government is doing 0:02:21.360 --> 0:02:23.520 is very much the opposite of what they were talking 0:02:23.520 --> 0:02:25.600 about doing a few months ago when they started coming 0:02:25.600 --> 0:02:29.320 out of the covid UH the COVID shutdown. They forced 0:02:29.360 --> 0:02:32.240 everyone back to work. It was a very aggressive move back. 0:02:32.600 --> 0:02:34.840 We're gonna get everyone back and running and you know, 0:02:34.919 --> 0:02:37.280 dan the consequences. But when it comes to Beijing, they're 0:02:37.320 --> 0:02:40.760 doing the opposite. They're being extremely careful. They're shutting everything down. 0:02:40.960 --> 0:02:42.840 They want to make sure that that Beijing is not 0:02:42.919 --> 0:02:45.520 the center of the new outbreak for the symbolic for 0:02:45.560 --> 0:02:47.960 symbolic reasons as well as the fact that it's it's 0:02:47.960 --> 0:02:51.600 it's it's the major political uh center of power and leland. 0:02:51.639 --> 0:02:54.600 One major political issue is the jobs picture. And we've 0:02:54.639 --> 0:02:57.520 heard from George Magnus that while the official rate of 0:02:57.760 --> 0:03:00.880 joblessness is about five point nine percent, he estimated it 0:03:01.120 --> 0:03:05.440 more at fifteen to twenty percent. Is that accurate? Is 0:03:05.480 --> 0:03:08.720 that what your figures are showing as well? Yeah, I 0:03:08.760 --> 0:03:11.320 think George as usual is right. You know, The problem 0:03:11.400 --> 0:03:13.840 here is that when you track employment in China and 0:03:13.880 --> 0:03:15.960 look the government gate is don't even try to get 0:03:16.000 --> 0:03:17.880 into it because they don't want to tell the negative story. 0:03:18.120 --> 0:03:20.560 But even when you do things like China Beige books 0:03:20.800 --> 0:03:23.680 job job gauges, you have a problem in that firms 0:03:23.760 --> 0:03:27.920 typically report formal employment and there's this floating migrant population 0:03:28.400 --> 0:03:32.480 that is in this set of hiatus from from being 0:03:32.520 --> 0:03:35.200 paid right now, Some are furloughed. They haven't been laid 0:03:35.200 --> 0:03:37.760 off technically, but they have. Some haven't been rehired back. 0:03:38.040 --> 0:03:40.720 When they get rehired back, you sometimes see a bump 0:03:40.760 --> 0:03:42.640 in the job's number even though they weren't laid off 0:03:42.680 --> 0:03:45.640 in the first place. So there's a very weird, opaque 0:03:45.720 --> 0:03:48.800 universe that the Chinese will will never announce because if 0:03:48.800 --> 0:03:51.360 they came out with the number that said fifteen people, 0:03:51.400 --> 0:03:53.840 people would lose their minds the same way that they announced, 0:03:53.840 --> 0:03:56.320 you know, one percent GDP growth. So these are the 0:03:56.320 --> 0:03:58.760 types of numbers that you just can't pay attention to. 0:03:58.920 --> 0:04:02.160 You know, the situation is much worse um, but you 0:04:02.160 --> 0:04:04.200 don't know what the exact numbers are Behind the scenes. 0:04:04.880 --> 0:04:06.720 We land one thing that we are seeing is that 0:04:06.760 --> 0:04:10.160 the PBOC is planning to increase credit in the economy 0:04:10.280 --> 0:04:13.360 by nearly a fifth this year. This according to an 0:04:13.360 --> 0:04:17.119 announcement overnight. A lot of people saying this isn't enough. 0:04:17.200 --> 0:04:19.520 What's your take, Yeah, it's not enough, But there's a 0:04:19.560 --> 0:04:21.440 couple of things going on, and it's not just about 0:04:21.480 --> 0:04:23.560 the supply of credit. So when I look at our 0:04:23.560 --> 0:04:26.960 credit gauges, I'm shocked by what I'm seeing because you 0:04:27.000 --> 0:04:30.280 would expect the same type of liquidity rollout that you 0:04:30.320 --> 0:04:32.120 saw in the United States or in Europe. You're not 0:04:32.160 --> 0:04:35.360 seeing that in China. And you can understand some restraint 0:04:35.440 --> 0:04:38.240 because they are worried about nonperforming loans, but the levels 0:04:38.279 --> 0:04:40.680 are quite shocking, and we're gonna have numbers on those 0:04:41.040 --> 0:04:43.120 coming out next week. But you know, it's it's it's 0:04:43.160 --> 0:04:46.279 looking pretty surprising. But the opposite of that is the 0:04:46.360 --> 0:04:48.960 demand picture and the fact that a lot of firms 0:04:49.040 --> 0:04:51.839 aren't asking for loans right now, and when you have 0:04:51.920 --> 0:04:54.960 this reduced loan demand, and begs the question why during 0:04:55.000 --> 0:04:59.159 this extremely trying time are firms not more desirous of loans? 0:04:59.400 --> 0:05:02.480 Is it because and don't like the horo economic horizon 0:05:02.520 --> 0:05:06.080 that they're worried about piling on loans during an uncertain 0:05:06.080 --> 0:05:09.240 economic environment is because of other credit dynamics. So this 0:05:09.360 --> 0:05:12.440 is really the big picture. Yes, look at supply, but 0:05:12.560 --> 0:05:14.600 loan demand is going to be the absolute key thing 0:05:14.640 --> 0:05:16.600 to watch for the next three or four months. Lela 0:05:16.680 --> 0:05:19.960 Miller of China Basebook International, the CEO of a situation 0:05:20.000 --> 0:05:26.000 in China right now. Fascinated stuff. Okay, more Blank Rocks, 0:05:26.080 --> 0:05:29.640 chief equity strategist, another central bankcake doing a whole lot 0:05:29.680 --> 0:05:31.920 more and maybe still more to come. Can you tell 0:05:31.960 --> 0:05:35.520 me whether traditional valuation approaches mats or anymore and it 0:05:35.600 --> 0:05:39.120 will dominated by monasty policy. Well, let me just say 0:05:39.240 --> 0:05:41.640 good morning, and then also let you know that I 0:05:41.640 --> 0:05:45.640 think valuations at this point are really tricky, especially forward 0:05:45.680 --> 0:05:51.880 measures of valuations. You know, no one at this point, analysts, companies, strategists, 0:05:51.880 --> 0:05:55.080 portfolio managers has a great sense for what earnings will 0:05:55.120 --> 0:06:00.640 be in or I've had people start talking about medium 0:06:00.760 --> 0:06:03.960 term trend earnings and that may be fair, but I 0:06:04.000 --> 0:06:06.599 think we're experiencing a lot of dislocations in the economy 0:06:06.640 --> 0:06:12.200 and consumption patterns and it's pretty difficult to predict. So valuations, uh, 0:06:12.279 --> 0:06:14.800 you know, in and of themselves are a difficult way 0:06:14.839 --> 0:06:18.200 to make investment decisions. But I will say is on 0:06:18.279 --> 0:06:20.920 a cross asset basis, with all of this QUEUEI, with 0:06:21.000 --> 0:06:24.080 all of this policy support, with all this repression of yields, 0:06:24.680 --> 0:06:28.040 you know, equities may look a little bit better. Okay, 0:06:28.160 --> 0:06:32.640 this is extraordinary. I agree with you. It's completely unusual times. 0:06:32.680 --> 0:06:38.200 But June thirty, beccons, how will institutional by side money 0:06:38.440 --> 0:06:42.080 reset for July one. I'm not sure we're going to 0:06:42.200 --> 0:06:45.280 have a giant rebalance after the second quarter. I mean, 0:06:45.320 --> 0:06:48.520 we always get excited about pension rebalances and flows and 0:06:48.600 --> 0:06:51.640 index rebounces when those times come. Uh, and they never 0:06:51.680 --> 0:06:53.799 tend to move the market as much as we might fear. 0:06:54.320 --> 0:06:58.200 I think there's been a consistent rebalancing of institutional portfolios 0:06:58.279 --> 0:07:01.560 along the way. And you know, people still are trying 0:07:01.600 --> 0:07:03.360 to figure out what to do with the second half 0:07:03.360 --> 0:07:06.320 of the year, let alone make big asset allocation shifts 0:07:06.360 --> 0:07:10.200 that will affect, you know, multi year horizons. So at 0:07:10.200 --> 0:07:12.480 this point I would expect people to continue to ride 0:07:12.680 --> 0:07:15.080 ride the risk wave a little bit, conscious of the 0:07:15.120 --> 0:07:16.560 fact that in the second half of the year we 0:07:16.600 --> 0:07:20.000 do have another big set of big risk factors. Um 0:07:20.200 --> 0:07:22.320 Please to just mentioned the election. I think that's something 0:07:22.320 --> 0:07:24.880 we're gonna have to focus very closely on. There's gonna 0:07:24.880 --> 0:07:26.840 be a lot more news out of d C over 0:07:26.880 --> 0:07:30.280 the next couple uh months, and you know, a lot 0:07:30.320 --> 0:07:33.360 of posturing by both the Democrats and the Republicans, and 0:07:33.520 --> 0:07:35.920 I think that's perhaps gonna gonna shake the market a 0:07:35.960 --> 0:07:38.040 little bit at some point. Okay, I've been struggling with 0:07:38.200 --> 0:07:40.440 riding the risk curve at a time when people really 0:07:40.480 --> 0:07:42.720 are still hiding out and some of the more defensive names. 0:07:42.840 --> 0:07:45.200 You're seeing this, certainly with the text docs, uh and 0:07:45.240 --> 0:07:47.880 you're seeing this in investment grade credit. At what point 0:07:47.920 --> 0:07:51.040 will investors get conviction? What do they have to see 0:07:51.240 --> 0:07:53.440 to go further into risk? Well least, I feel like 0:07:53.480 --> 0:07:55.280 you're sort of asking it, what point do we get 0:07:55.280 --> 0:07:57.920 a rotation into value into perhaps some of the lower 0:07:58.040 --> 0:08:01.119 quality stuff. The hiding out has really been in higher 0:08:01.160 --> 0:08:05.000 quality companies with good balance sheets, strong business models, with 0:08:05.120 --> 0:08:08.720 management teams that investors have conviction in and confidence in 0:08:08.760 --> 0:08:12.360 their ability to execute. And I think that makes sense. 0:08:12.640 --> 0:08:15.240 I mean, the trouble with what falls into value or 0:08:15.280 --> 0:08:17.640 what falls into the highly cyclical parts of the of 0:08:17.640 --> 0:08:19.560 the market at this point is that some of it 0:08:19.600 --> 0:08:22.600 is structurally impaired. It's a much harder call whether we're 0:08:22.640 --> 0:08:24.880 talking about, you know, the next couple of weeks or 0:08:24.920 --> 0:08:27.040 the next couple of years. I think you have to 0:08:27.040 --> 0:08:29.360 be more selective. One of the ways that we've been 0:08:29.360 --> 0:08:32.520 talking about it is on my team is to go 0:08:32.559 --> 0:08:35.480 into the whimpy cyclicals. These are cyclical companies if you 0:08:35.480 --> 0:08:37.760 want to make a rotation towards better global growth and 0:08:37.840 --> 0:08:41.280 better US growth, that also have the balance sheets and 0:08:41.320 --> 0:08:43.880 decent management teams. They may not be the cheapest in 0:08:43.880 --> 0:08:46.320 the cyclical bucket, but I think they're the better bet. 0:08:46.600 --> 0:08:48.679 Okay More always tries to catch with Okay More j 0:08:48.679 --> 0:08:51.079 wanting us from black Rock on some of the cyclicals 0:08:51.120 --> 0:08:57.160 out there. Jacker Earlisa Brown with some time Kena. What 0:08:57.320 --> 0:09:01.160 we know is ed bastion of Delta always at every 0:09:01.200 --> 0:09:03.880 moment will listen to Robert Crandell. He's in his eighty 0:09:03.880 --> 0:09:07.840 fourth year. Mr. Crandell is without question the spirit of 0:09:07.880 --> 0:09:11.720 the American aviation industry, and he's also someone who has 0:09:11.720 --> 0:09:16.480 been brutally frank. He is iconic for telling American airlines 0:09:16.559 --> 0:09:20.280 employees they need to understand that you don't invest in 0:09:20.320 --> 0:09:23.240 airlines you just have fun working for them, and we're 0:09:23.280 --> 0:09:27.320 thrilled that Mr. Crandell could join us this morning. Bob Crandell, 0:09:27.440 --> 0:09:31.160 this has been an exogenous shock that your industry has 0:09:31.320 --> 0:09:35.520 never felt before. What is the best practice for the 0:09:35.559 --> 0:09:42.520 American aviation industry to extract themselves from this pandemic? But Tom, 0:09:42.600 --> 0:09:45.079 I think the airlines are all of the airlines are 0:09:45.160 --> 0:09:49.199 die have done pretty well. They're all there's quite by 0:09:49.240 --> 0:09:51.440 the way, there's quite a nice week gap in this 0:09:51.600 --> 0:09:56.880 morning's journal about what each individual parity is doing UH 0:09:57.559 --> 0:10:00.800 outdown American United, each one of the by one. They're 0:10:00.800 --> 0:10:04.760 all working hard to try and persuade the public that 0:10:05.080 --> 0:10:08.160 it is safe to go back, that they won't get 0:10:08.240 --> 0:10:11.120 sick if they get on the airplane and take a trip, 0:10:11.600 --> 0:10:14.119 they go see Grand mop, they go see the grandkids, 0:10:14.240 --> 0:10:17.920 or if they go to a business meeting. UH. The 0:10:18.000 --> 0:10:22.959 airlines obviously want the public to feel safe flying and 0:10:23.080 --> 0:10:25.679 they're doing the investigator to make that part of the 0:10:25.840 --> 0:10:30.480 cleaning the airplanes very assiduously. They are reducing the point 0:10:30.480 --> 0:10:34.360 to point contacts within the terminal UH. And they're and 0:10:34.520 --> 0:10:37.679 they're increasingly and I'm glad to see this. They are 0:10:37.800 --> 0:10:41.880 becoming increasingly insistent that people wear masks on the airplane, 0:10:41.920 --> 0:10:45.040 which I think was a very important step and an event. 0:10:45.120 --> 0:10:48.160 They're all working hard at it, And his ed said 0:10:48.520 --> 0:10:51.760 a few minutes ago on your show, I think everybody 0:10:51.880 --> 0:10:54.839 is hoping that by the end of the summer the 0:10:54.920 --> 0:10:57.800 public will feel a lot safer than they feel have 0:10:58.000 --> 0:11:01.400 felt up to this point. And it isn't travel if 0:11:01.480 --> 0:11:03.880 you but the issue is what they have to do 0:11:04.000 --> 0:11:05.800 to make the public feel safe, and right now that 0:11:05.920 --> 0:11:09.240 capping capacity on those planes is SI. I just wonder 0:11:09.280 --> 0:11:11.440 if you're running an airline again and had to cap 0:11:11.520 --> 0:11:14.959 capacity at six through year, and what are the heart 0:11:15.000 --> 0:11:17.400 decisions you'd have to make? How sweat all? Wait, wait, 0:11:18.280 --> 0:11:20.760 there are a lot of you're gonna have to make elsewhere, 0:11:21.720 --> 0:11:27.600 including how how do you best reduce costs and conserved care? 0:11:28.920 --> 0:11:32.120 After after all, if you are capping modes and if 0:11:32.160 --> 0:11:36.720 you are not increasing prices dramatically, then obviously your cash 0:11:36.800 --> 0:11:39.280 poles are going to go way down. And what you've 0:11:39.280 --> 0:11:40.959 got to do is you you've got to stay in 0:11:41.000 --> 0:11:43.440 the game. You've got to you've got to conserve enough 0:11:43.520 --> 0:11:46.439 cash so that you can get through this difficulty to 0:11:46.840 --> 0:11:49.239 get to the point where we finally have a vaccine 0:11:49.840 --> 0:11:52.400 and people are finally able to go back to traveling 0:11:53.000 --> 0:11:56.679 where they have in the past. That's a very difficult 0:11:56.760 --> 0:12:01.320 thing to do, and inevitably going involved throws or some people, 0:12:02.160 --> 0:12:06.960 uh voluntary throwers, perhaps more part time work. Each individual 0:12:07.080 --> 0:12:10.000 care I think it's going to shape its response the 0:12:10.160 --> 0:12:13.840 cash conservation according to its own balance sheet and its 0:12:13.920 --> 0:12:17.200 own reading of what what public movie is web. There's 0:12:17.200 --> 0:12:20.679 a question when you talk about business travel resuming, A 0:12:20.760 --> 0:12:22.800 lot of companies are realizing they don't need to do 0:12:22.880 --> 0:12:24.679 the same kind of travel that they hadn't the past. 0:12:24.720 --> 0:12:28.280 I'm thinking in particular of road trips with respect to 0:12:28.559 --> 0:12:31.199 selling I p O s or even just face to 0:12:31.240 --> 0:12:33.640 face meetings that now could be done via zoom. How 0:12:33.720 --> 0:12:35.880 long do you think it will take before business travel 0:12:35.960 --> 0:12:38.280 gets back up to levels that we saw last year? 0:12:38.720 --> 0:12:41.319 Do you ever think it will at least I'm not sure. 0:12:41.520 --> 0:12:44.199 I think nobody. I don't think anybody is smart enough 0:12:44.240 --> 0:12:48.319 findal I'm not smart enough to tell you precisely have 0:12:48.520 --> 0:12:53.280 the business community will respond to the sort of suspension 0:12:53.320 --> 0:12:56.760 of travel that we've had and the use of alternatives 0:12:56.920 --> 0:13:00.040 like like the alternative we are using this morning to 0:13:00.120 --> 0:13:02.040 talk to each other and talk to the public, but 0:13:02.200 --> 0:13:05.280 not be in the same place. I suspect that that 0:13:05.480 --> 0:13:10.360 will that will over time reduce the accumulative amount of 0:13:10.440 --> 0:13:15.640 business travel somewhat. How much is anybody's get but I 0:13:16.040 --> 0:13:18.600 think it will be a long time before the aline 0:13:18.720 --> 0:13:23.559 see as much business travel as they saw in in 0:13:23.679 --> 0:13:26.360 the pre COVID days of later out of the nineteen 0:13:26.720 --> 0:13:30.679 early but always fantastic to get your unique insight on 0:13:30.760 --> 0:13:33.480 an industry that has really really come under a ton 0:13:33.559 --> 0:13:35.719 of pressure over the last several months. Bob krandled that 0:13:35.960 --> 0:13:42.520 the former American Alliance CEO what we like to do 0:13:42.760 --> 0:13:45.920 is have an important conversation now with a gentle lady 0:13:46.000 --> 0:13:49.679 from Utah. Vivian ly is with Verily of course the 0:13:49.760 --> 0:13:53.959 story career in health academics and health medicine. We're thrilled 0:13:54.080 --> 0:13:56.559 Dr Lea could join us in the long Fix is 0:13:56.600 --> 0:14:01.920 an important book on healthcare and healthcare lucians in America. 0:14:02.120 --> 0:14:05.679 Dr Lee, I can't have a normal conversation Utah in 0:14:05.800 --> 0:14:10.120 the Mountains states down to Arizona having a new epidemic 0:14:10.320 --> 0:14:13.480 of the pandemic. Give us an update on what Utah 0:14:13.679 --> 0:14:16.760 sees with the COVID virus. Great to be with you, 0:14:16.920 --> 0:14:20.560 Tom and um As you know, a couple of years ago, 0:14:21.480 --> 0:14:23.480 up until a couple of years ago, I was leading 0:14:23.560 --> 0:14:27.240 the University of Utah's health care system, and UH now 0:14:27.600 --> 0:14:30.600 really have been full of admiration for the way in 0:14:30.680 --> 0:14:35.560 which that state had has been managing the crisis, really 0:14:35.680 --> 0:14:38.640 had been keeping it um and has been among the 0:14:38.760 --> 0:14:42.240 lowest in the country. But as we're seeing now, you know, 0:14:42.360 --> 0:14:45.880 all across the country, places that we thought we're going 0:14:46.000 --> 0:14:50.000 to survive, you know, relatively unscathed, they're seeing these upticks 0:14:50.680 --> 0:14:52.920 in the COVID crisis. And it's just all the more 0:14:53.040 --> 0:14:57.160 important that we recognize that the guidance that we're hearing 0:14:57.200 --> 0:15:00.960 from our public health officials, we need much more testing, 0:15:01.160 --> 0:15:05.200 we need to do the social distancing and masking, those 0:15:05.280 --> 0:15:08.520 are just ever more imperative. Now no one is immune. 0:15:09.160 --> 0:15:12.920 I have to ask the professional question, and that one 0:15:12.920 --> 0:15:15.880 of the most piercing comments we had was with the 0:15:15.960 --> 0:15:19.880 chief radiologist at Mount Sinai on the virus. You are 0:15:20.120 --> 0:15:26.040 a radiologist, What have you learned about the inflammation around 0:15:26.160 --> 0:15:30.280 the chest cavity in this virus? What do you discern 0:15:30.360 --> 0:15:33.880 about how we can battle this virus vaccine or no 0:15:34.160 --> 0:15:37.760 vaccine in terms of the cavity of the body. You know, 0:15:37.880 --> 0:15:42.920 what is so striking about this virus is the fact 0:15:43.000 --> 0:15:46.680 that there are so many people who feel pretty good. 0:15:46.960 --> 0:15:51.960 They actually are relatively asymptomatic, and even though they walk 0:15:52.040 --> 0:15:54.960 around they don't necessarily feel a fever, they don't necessarily 0:15:55.080 --> 0:15:58.680 have a cough, they actually are COVID positive. And we've 0:15:58.800 --> 0:16:03.040 seen the reports and the literature that they actually have 0:16:03.280 --> 0:16:07.760 findings on their chest CT scans, they have abnormal findings 0:16:07.840 --> 0:16:10.840 and their lungs that that virus is affecting them, but 0:16:11.000 --> 0:16:13.840 they're not manifesting it in symptoms. And and that's really 0:16:14.200 --> 0:16:17.160 I think we're hearing. Just just yesterday, the f d 0:16:17.280 --> 0:16:20.680 A issued a guidance that said, look, you know, none 0:16:20.760 --> 0:16:25.560 of these tests for COVID are approved for wide scale 0:16:25.880 --> 0:16:29.880 testing of people who are asymptomatic, but they acknowledged that 0:16:30.200 --> 0:16:32.320 that is going to be necessary, that we are going 0:16:32.440 --> 0:16:35.640 to need to test people who are asymptomatic. And they 0:16:35.680 --> 0:16:41.120 actually provided templates for laboratories and for manufacturers to get 0:16:41.200 --> 0:16:45.560 that approval to be able to test asymptomatic people for COVID. 0:16:45.640 --> 0:16:48.200 And that's going to be a critical component of getting 0:16:48.240 --> 0:16:51.920 people back to work, getting students back to campuses. We're 0:16:51.960 --> 0:16:54.000 going to have to have a strategy because we're seeing 0:16:54.120 --> 0:16:56.760 from from taking the images, as you say, of people 0:16:57.000 --> 0:17:00.880 who actually feel fine that they are infected, and that 0:17:01.040 --> 0:17:04.280 means they are also infectious. They can spread that disease 0:17:04.280 --> 0:17:06.600 to other people, and we need to identify those folks 0:17:07.000 --> 0:17:10.400 and be able to quarantine them to protect everyone else. Meanwhile, 0:17:10.480 --> 0:17:12.920 doctor Lely, we have seen the resurgence in cases in 0:17:13.000 --> 0:17:16.800 places like Arizona and Texas and Florida with anecdotal accounts 0:17:17.200 --> 0:17:20.160 of the i C you beds getting filled up, any 0:17:20.359 --> 0:17:25.160 shortage being highlighted of general practitioners and I see you nurses, 0:17:25.800 --> 0:17:28.080 what do you see as some of the ways to 0:17:28.320 --> 0:17:31.359 fill that gap that is so sorely being reflected in 0:17:31.400 --> 0:17:36.200 this pandemic of general practitioners, of nurses who perhaps haven't 0:17:36.240 --> 0:17:39.040 been favored as far as a professional career because they 0:17:39.080 --> 0:17:40.800 haven't been as well paid, perhaps as some of the 0:17:40.920 --> 0:17:44.480 more highly compensated specialists. You know, one of the things 0:17:44.520 --> 0:17:47.600 that the COVID crisis is laying there is the fundamental 0:17:48.040 --> 0:17:50.200 shortcomings of our health care system. You know, we were 0:17:50.359 --> 0:17:53.119 such we are a fee for service health care system, 0:17:53.200 --> 0:17:57.040 meaning that our healthcare hospitals are designed to focus on 0:17:57.119 --> 0:17:59.879 things that generate fees, and as soon as those fees 0:18:00.240 --> 0:18:04.160 start going away, like the primary care clinics, like all 0:18:04.240 --> 0:18:07.040 of the hospital beds that were not caring for COVID, 0:18:07.080 --> 0:18:09.680 we had to lay people off. The April data showed 0:18:09.720 --> 0:18:12.640 we laid almost one and a half million healthcare workers off. 0:18:12.960 --> 0:18:15.680 Last month was a little bit better. Three thousand were rehired, 0:18:15.720 --> 0:18:19.760 but that's still almost one point two million healthcare workers. 0:18:19.800 --> 0:18:22.720 And you know, the majority our nurses and also dentists 0:18:22.760 --> 0:18:25.360 as well as physicians. And that's just a tragedy because 0:18:25.359 --> 0:18:27.359 the people who are being laid off are exactly the 0:18:27.440 --> 0:18:30.359 folks that we need to care for the most vulnerable. 0:18:30.680 --> 0:18:33.280 We see that the people were you know, across the country, 0:18:33.320 --> 0:18:34.560 and they are the ones we need to get back 0:18:34.600 --> 0:18:37.320 into work now. Vivianly, I need to be in the 0:18:37.440 --> 0:18:40.080 time out chair of Dr Lee because we spent no 0:18:40.240 --> 0:18:42.920 time on your wonderful book, The Long Fix. We will 0:18:42.960 --> 0:18:47.320 have you back on soon to talk about an important book, folks, 0:18:47.800 --> 0:18:51.600 on what actually can be done to begin to fix 0:18:51.800 --> 0:18:56.119 this amazing and a mess the American medical system. Vivian 0:18:56.240 --> 0:19:00.399 Ly with us this morning. The author of The Long Six, 0:19:04.440 --> 0:19:06.840 thanks so much. Now, President Trump asked for China's help 0:19:06.920 --> 0:19:09.680 to win re election. That's the allegation made by John 0:19:09.720 --> 0:19:12.399 Bolton in his tell All memoir. The White House is 0:19:12.400 --> 0:19:16.000 seeking an injunction preventing the former National Security advisor from 0:19:16.119 --> 0:19:19.680 publishing the book. Now, the president's campaign team dismissed the 0:19:19.800 --> 0:19:23.280 claim as absurd, But he broke the law very simple. 0:19:23.400 --> 0:19:26.159 I mean, as much as it's going to be broken. 0:19:26.280 --> 0:19:29.639 This is highly classified. That's the highest stage. It's highly 0:19:30.119 --> 0:19:34.439 classified information. That was the President's himself now joining us 0:19:34.440 --> 0:19:37.560 as Craig Gordon or Bloomberg Washington d C. Very chief, Greg, 0:19:37.760 --> 0:19:40.520 Great to have you on Bloomberg surveillance. When you look 0:19:40.560 --> 0:19:43.840 at what the allegations were, does it actually move the 0:19:43.960 --> 0:19:47.200 polls as we get closer to the election or do 0:19:47.359 --> 0:19:51.199 the people that support President Trump not care about these allegations. 0:19:51.800 --> 0:19:54.280 I mean, look, people who support President Donald Trump are 0:19:54.280 --> 0:19:56.680 pretty dug in, and I think we're going to see many, 0:19:56.760 --> 0:19:58.879 many thousands of them this weekend when he does his 0:19:58.960 --> 0:20:01.480 first rally in a long time. And also Oklahoma. We 0:20:01.600 --> 0:20:03.879 talked about that in a minute. So yeah, it's going 0:20:03.920 --> 0:20:06.280 to take a lot to shake some of them more. Um, 0:20:06.480 --> 0:20:08.720 the sort of the true believers are, uh, you know, 0:20:08.760 --> 0:20:10.560 who still think Donald Trump is doing a great job. 0:20:10.920 --> 0:20:13.760 I do believe there's a small but important kind of 0:20:14.200 --> 0:20:16.639 section of people who took a chance on Trump in 0:20:16.680 --> 0:20:19.240 twos sixteen and perhaps are going a little bit tired 0:20:19.280 --> 0:20:22.320 of some of the some of what they're seeing, whether 0:20:22.440 --> 0:20:24.760 it's the tweeting or in the case of what John 0:20:24.800 --> 0:20:28.280 Bolton is alleging, you know, essentially selling out u S 0:20:28.320 --> 0:20:31.680 foreign policy to help himself get reelected, which is Bolton's allegations. 0:20:31.800 --> 0:20:34.520 So those are serious charges and I think serious minded 0:20:34.560 --> 0:20:36.560 Americans would would look at them pretty um, you know, 0:20:36.880 --> 0:20:39.160 as an important piece of evidence as they decide whether 0:20:39.280 --> 0:20:41.440 vote for Donald Trump. Craig, thank you so much for 0:20:41.560 --> 0:20:44.240 joining us today and thrilled that you're with us, and folks, 0:20:44.320 --> 0:20:47.200 I can only say that Craig is in the absolute 0:20:47.359 --> 0:20:50.840 crosshairs of the micro debates that we have every day 0:20:50.920 --> 0:20:54.000 on our Washington coverage. You did that by leading over 0:20:54.119 --> 0:20:57.040 from political a million years ago. We really helped invent 0:20:57.760 --> 0:21:01.440 political Craig. I want to ask you up politico type question, 0:21:01.920 --> 0:21:04.879 which is I understand that the Bolton papers is an 0:21:04.920 --> 0:21:09.960 inside the Beltway phenomenon. How outside the belt Way is 0:21:10.080 --> 0:21:12.480 this or is this just something you're gonna talk to 0:21:12.600 --> 0:21:15.359 twelve people about at that bar in the basement of 0:21:15.400 --> 0:21:17.520 the hay Adams. Well, if I could get to the 0:21:17.560 --> 0:21:19.120 bar at the basement of the hay Adams, I would 0:21:19.160 --> 0:21:21.040 love to have that conversation. But right now I'm in 0:21:21.119 --> 0:21:25.480 the basement of my home in suburban Washington. So there's that. 0:21:25.680 --> 0:21:28.200 There's that to start with. But look, Tom, it's a 0:21:28.240 --> 0:21:30.399 fair question. I mean, a lot of these things become 0:21:30.560 --> 0:21:32.280 you know, the sort of the tempest in the teapot 0:21:32.320 --> 0:21:35.920 here in d C. Beltway insiders using air quotes there, 0:21:36.000 --> 0:21:37.840 you know, love to love to chew on this stuff. 0:21:37.920 --> 0:21:40.760 I actually think so one answer to your question is, yeah, 0:21:40.760 --> 0:21:42.840 there's a lot of truth to that. I actually think 0:21:42.920 --> 0:21:45.440 Joe Biden has some work to do here. Um, he 0:21:45.640 --> 0:21:48.639 has to find a way obviously, the Democrat running against 0:21:48.880 --> 0:21:51.000 Donald Trump in the fall. He has to find a 0:21:51.080 --> 0:21:53.400 way to take you know, hundreds of pages of kind 0:21:53.400 --> 0:21:57.280 of Washington insidery, uh stuff, and and and form it 0:21:57.400 --> 0:22:00.840