1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:13,760 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg 2 00:00:13,840 --> 00:00:17,920 Speaker 1: Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern 3 00:00:18,200 --> 00:00:22,000 Speaker 1: on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. 4 00:00:22,360 --> 00:00:25,680 Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch 5 00:00:25,760 --> 00:00:27,200 Speaker 1: us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:27,400 --> 00:00:32,639 Speaker 2: Elizabeth Economy, the Hoover Institution at Stanford University changed our 7 00:00:32,720 --> 00:00:36,960 Speaker 2: dialogue on China where their Michigan graduate school book, The 8 00:00:37,040 --> 00:00:40,280 Speaker 2: River Runs Black, and has done the rarest thing. She 9 00:00:40,320 --> 00:00:44,280 Speaker 2: had a triumph in graduate school and then continued forward 10 00:00:44,320 --> 00:00:48,000 Speaker 2: with book after book after book. She's the only one 11 00:00:48,000 --> 00:00:51,159 Speaker 2: who know has read all of James Tregian on g 12 00:00:51,440 --> 00:00:54,680 Speaker 2: as well. Doctor Economy, thank you so much for joining us. 13 00:00:54,880 --> 00:00:57,920 Speaker 2: Because of you, I am buried in a Nern book 14 00:00:58,400 --> 00:01:04,000 Speaker 2: Joel Wuthnow and Philip Saunders China's Quest for Military Supremacy, 15 00:01:04,319 --> 00:01:08,200 Speaker 2: Elizabeth Economy, do you have any idea the makeup in 16 00:01:08,240 --> 00:01:12,720 Speaker 2: the power of President She's China Military force. 17 00:01:13,040 --> 00:01:15,160 Speaker 3: I mean, if you're reading the book, then you know 18 00:01:15,959 --> 00:01:19,480 Speaker 3: that she Didn'tping has made radical changes to China's military 19 00:01:19,680 --> 00:01:22,160 Speaker 3: over the past thirteen years since he came into power. 20 00:01:22,720 --> 00:01:23,920 Speaker 4: He's reorganized it. 21 00:01:24,000 --> 00:01:27,920 Speaker 3: Certainly he's reshuffled the top Chinese military, he's modeled it 22 00:01:27,959 --> 00:01:33,840 Speaker 3: in many cases on the US'T joint structure, and he 23 00:01:34,000 --> 00:01:40,440 Speaker 3: certainly increased and advanced China's military hardware capabilities. So he's transformed. 24 00:01:40,480 --> 00:01:42,240 Speaker 3: He's been a transformative military leader. 25 00:01:42,600 --> 00:01:43,440 Speaker 4: That being said, of. 26 00:01:43,400 --> 00:01:47,560 Speaker 3: Course, we've also watched these purges of the senior military leadership, 27 00:01:47,880 --> 00:01:53,120 Speaker 3: most recently at the Fourth Plenum, and it's very unclear, 28 00:01:53,520 --> 00:01:56,000 Speaker 3: you know, sort of the readiness of the Chinese military, 29 00:01:56,080 --> 00:01:58,920 Speaker 3: certainly at the top, to take any kind of military 30 00:01:58,960 --> 00:01:59,920 Speaker 3: action moving forward. 31 00:02:00,440 --> 00:02:01,520 Speaker 4: So just the. 32 00:02:01,560 --> 00:02:05,680 Speaker 3: Constant roiling of the senior Chinese military leadership, I think 33 00:02:05,800 --> 00:02:09,959 Speaker 3: is a real challenge for the Forshigentping and the party leadership. 34 00:02:10,120 --> 00:02:12,920 Speaker 2: Liz Paul Sweeten brought this up brilliantly this morning. The 35 00:02:12,960 --> 00:02:16,440 Speaker 2: basic idea is, we all have a perspective of Taiwan, 36 00:02:16,880 --> 00:02:20,440 Speaker 2: and maybe it's Sean Kaishek and missus Shang Kaishek coming 37 00:02:20,440 --> 00:02:23,520 Speaker 2: to Washington and then on to this and Nixon and 38 00:02:23,919 --> 00:02:27,960 Speaker 2: Kissinger in all that, is this a full grom point 39 00:02:28,120 --> 00:02:31,040 Speaker 2: where Taiwan is actually under threat? 40 00:02:31,840 --> 00:02:34,639 Speaker 3: Look, there's no doubt that Taiwan is under threat, and 41 00:02:34,680 --> 00:02:37,840 Speaker 3: over the past several years, the rhetoric out of Beijing, 42 00:02:38,000 --> 00:02:42,520 Speaker 3: and the sort of the military activity around Taiwan, the 43 00:02:42,560 --> 00:02:46,239 Speaker 3: air flights, the sort of crossings in the Taiwan straight 44 00:02:46,400 --> 00:02:50,720 Speaker 3: over the Median Line have only increased. And I think 45 00:02:50,760 --> 00:02:55,320 Speaker 3: what we saw just over the past few weeks was 46 00:02:55,520 --> 00:02:58,840 Speaker 3: Prime Minister of Japan Takaichi when she said that if 47 00:02:58,880 --> 00:03:03,320 Speaker 3: China were to take military action against Taiwan, Japan could 48 00:03:03,320 --> 00:03:07,080 Speaker 3: be forced itself to take some sort of military action. 49 00:03:07,880 --> 00:03:11,720 Speaker 3: That China came out very hot and said Japan acrossed 50 00:03:11,720 --> 00:03:15,520 Speaker 3: the red line, and that you know, it started, you know, 51 00:03:15,600 --> 00:03:21,520 Speaker 3: the banning, you know, boycotting Japanese seafood, Japanese films, et cetera. 52 00:03:22,400 --> 00:03:24,240 Speaker 4: And so I think there's no doubt. 53 00:03:24,280 --> 00:03:26,160 Speaker 3: You know, Si Jinping has said he wants the Chinese 54 00:03:26,200 --> 00:03:30,920 Speaker 3: military to be prepared to take action by twenty twenty seven. 55 00:03:31,000 --> 00:03:33,160 Speaker 3: That doesn't mean that they're going to launch any kind 56 00:03:33,160 --> 00:03:36,240 Speaker 3: of military invasion twenty twenty seven. He's just put that 57 00:03:36,360 --> 00:03:39,360 Speaker 3: down as a marker for when he would want the 58 00:03:39,400 --> 00:03:43,640 Speaker 3: military to be prepared to take Taiwan. So I'll just 59 00:03:43,680 --> 00:03:47,200 Speaker 3: say I was in tai in mainland Chinese came back Saturday, 60 00:03:47,880 --> 00:03:51,480 Speaker 3: and one of the things that our delegation heard was 61 00:03:51,480 --> 00:03:56,320 Speaker 3: from a retired senior foreign policy official that China is 62 00:03:56,360 --> 00:03:59,160 Speaker 3: not prepared to wait two hundred years, that it is 63 00:03:59,240 --> 00:04:02,800 Speaker 3: prepared to take any form of military action. So I think, 64 00:04:02,920 --> 00:04:05,600 Speaker 3: you know, the heat is, you know, it's only getting 65 00:04:05,640 --> 00:04:07,800 Speaker 3: hotter for Taiwan at this point. 66 00:04:08,160 --> 00:04:11,400 Speaker 5: Elizabeth, President Trump and President and She have been on again, 67 00:04:11,440 --> 00:04:15,200 Speaker 5: off again having discussions on trade. What's the perception within 68 00:04:15,360 --> 00:04:19,719 Speaker 5: China of President Trump, this administration and maybe the policies 69 00:04:19,720 --> 00:04:20,719 Speaker 5: as it related to China. 70 00:04:22,279 --> 00:04:26,120 Speaker 3: I think, look, there's still a sense within China that 71 00:04:26,600 --> 00:04:28,880 Speaker 3: President Trump can be very unpredictable. 72 00:04:29,960 --> 00:04:32,279 Speaker 4: They see some openings with President Trump. 73 00:04:32,279 --> 00:04:34,960 Speaker 3: And I think the recent phone call that was initiated 74 00:04:35,000 --> 00:04:39,400 Speaker 3: by c Jen Pink is evidence that, you know, Cgenping 75 00:04:39,520 --> 00:04:43,760 Speaker 3: wanted to send a message about Taiwan, certainly that Taiwan 76 00:04:43,880 --> 00:04:46,240 Speaker 3: is part of China and doesn't want the United States 77 00:04:46,279 --> 00:04:50,320 Speaker 3: to wade into this you know, Japan, Mainland, China Bojaha. 78 00:04:50,920 --> 00:04:53,520 Speaker 3: But I think he was also probing to see whether 79 00:04:53,680 --> 00:04:57,640 Speaker 3: President Trump might be willing to do something on Taiwan, 80 00:04:57,839 --> 00:05:02,520 Speaker 3: especially in the wake of this, you know, US Russia 81 00:05:02,839 --> 00:05:06,720 Speaker 3: negotiation over Ukraine and that initial peace plan that they 82 00:05:06,880 --> 00:05:10,359 Speaker 3: put forth you know, is there something that President Trump 83 00:05:10,360 --> 00:05:12,800 Speaker 3: and President She could discuss on Taiwan when they meet 84 00:05:12,839 --> 00:05:17,160 Speaker 3: in April? So I think, you know, the perception in 85 00:05:17,880 --> 00:05:20,479 Speaker 3: China is that President Trump is a deal maker, that 86 00:05:20,520 --> 00:05:23,080 Speaker 3: he's willing to put everything on the table and to 87 00:05:23,240 --> 00:05:26,080 Speaker 3: trade things in and out, and so I think that's 88 00:05:26,080 --> 00:05:27,320 Speaker 3: what they're looking to assess. 89 00:05:27,360 --> 00:05:32,360 Speaker 5: Now, do you believe from the US perspective that putting 90 00:05:32,360 --> 00:05:34,720 Speaker 5: things on the table would include Taiwan? Do we have 91 00:05:34,720 --> 00:05:36,560 Speaker 5: any indication in President Trump would consider that? 92 00:05:37,960 --> 00:05:42,040 Speaker 3: You know, I think there's always concern when it comes 93 00:05:42,040 --> 00:05:45,599 Speaker 3: to President Trump's commitment to Taiwan. He's never come out 94 00:05:45,600 --> 00:05:49,560 Speaker 3: and said that that Taiwan is a very valuable partner for. 95 00:05:49,520 --> 00:05:50,600 Speaker 4: The United States. 96 00:05:51,240 --> 00:05:53,599 Speaker 3: You know, He's been critical of Taiwan on some fronts. 97 00:05:53,680 --> 00:05:56,600 Speaker 3: I think what we do know is that Secretary Rubio 98 00:05:56,680 --> 00:05:59,520 Speaker 3: and Secretary Hegseth have been very strong in their support 99 00:05:59,560 --> 00:06:03,040 Speaker 3: of Taiwan, very strong in their commitment to our Indo 100 00:06:03,080 --> 00:06:06,720 Speaker 3: Pacific allies and partners and to sort of a continued 101 00:06:06,839 --> 00:06:11,719 Speaker 3: US dominant presence in the Indo Pacific in the security space. So, 102 00:06:12,080 --> 00:06:14,440 Speaker 3: you know, it's unclear. You know, I think we've seen 103 00:06:14,480 --> 00:06:17,400 Speaker 3: a fracturing to some extent of this administration on the 104 00:06:17,440 --> 00:06:20,359 Speaker 3: Russia issue. It's not impossible that we'd have a similar 105 00:06:20,360 --> 00:06:23,400 Speaker 3: fracturing on the China Taiwan China issue. 106 00:06:23,480 --> 00:06:26,800 Speaker 2: Elizabeth Economy with us an extended conversation of course, with 107 00:06:26,839 --> 00:06:31,480 Speaker 2: the Hoover Institution in Stanford University, Mark you, Petel, Chris 108 00:06:31,520 --> 00:06:34,400 Speaker 2: Whalen coming up, and later we'll be looking at the 109 00:06:34,480 --> 00:06:39,320 Speaker 2: gambling across America, Doctor Economy, the world according to China. 110 00:06:39,400 --> 00:06:43,200 Speaker 2: You're must read, you say, rewriting the rules of the game, 111 00:06:43,839 --> 00:06:47,120 Speaker 2: Mike China one oh one also learned at the altar 112 00:06:47,160 --> 00:06:51,279 Speaker 2: of Elizabeth Economy is that presidents have a four year window, 113 00:06:52,040 --> 00:06:55,480 Speaker 2: an eight year window, China has a twenty thirty year 114 00:06:55,800 --> 00:06:56,480 Speaker 2: x axis. 115 00:06:57,040 --> 00:06:58,720 Speaker 6: Rewriting the rules. 116 00:06:58,360 --> 00:07:01,560 Speaker 2: Of the game one of your chapters, does President she 117 00:07:01,760 --> 00:07:03,760 Speaker 2: is he shortened China exit? 118 00:07:04,200 --> 00:07:07,120 Speaker 6: Or are they playing the long game? Each and every day? 119 00:07:08,640 --> 00:07:11,280 Speaker 3: He's certainly playing a long game, as you say, each 120 00:07:11,320 --> 00:07:15,120 Speaker 3: and every day. And you know they continue to invest 121 00:07:15,600 --> 00:07:19,120 Speaker 3: in all the resources and capabilities that they need to 122 00:07:20,120 --> 00:07:22,840 Speaker 3: win the game over to twenty thirty five to twenty 123 00:07:22,880 --> 00:07:25,560 Speaker 3: forty nine. And you see this in all the targets 124 00:07:25,600 --> 00:07:28,880 Speaker 3: and timetables, that they put forth, for example, in how 125 00:07:28,880 --> 00:07:32,679 Speaker 3: they're going to achieve global technology dominance, but it also 126 00:07:32,720 --> 00:07:35,520 Speaker 3: plays out across you know, a range of areas, whether 127 00:07:35,560 --> 00:07:38,280 Speaker 3: we're talking about the Arctic or space or deep sea 128 00:07:38,320 --> 00:07:43,240 Speaker 3: bed mining or dedollarizing the global economy. They're constantly putting, 129 00:07:43,560 --> 00:07:46,680 Speaker 3: you know, markers out for the future five years, ten years, 130 00:07:46,720 --> 00:07:47,800 Speaker 3: fifteen years out. 131 00:07:48,600 --> 00:07:50,560 Speaker 4: What do they want to achieve? How are they going 132 00:07:50,640 --> 00:07:52,360 Speaker 4: to get there? They have a long. 133 00:07:52,200 --> 00:07:56,280 Speaker 3: Term vision and a long term strategy to achieve that vision. 134 00:07:57,080 --> 00:07:58,400 Speaker 4: So this is the long game. 135 00:07:58,560 --> 00:08:01,960 Speaker 3: And you know, she didn't pick doesn't see himself exiting 136 00:08:02,000 --> 00:08:02,800 Speaker 3: anytime soon. 137 00:08:03,200 --> 00:08:04,480 Speaker 4: So I think we could count on at. 138 00:08:04,480 --> 00:08:07,160 Speaker 3: Least another five year term beginning in twenty twenty seven 139 00:08:07,400 --> 00:08:10,600 Speaker 3: for segen Ping. After that, I imagine he'll still want to, 140 00:08:10,840 --> 00:08:13,600 Speaker 3: you know, at least be in the background, you know, 141 00:08:13,760 --> 00:08:16,120 Speaker 3: guiding the next leaders of China. 142 00:08:16,240 --> 00:08:22,720 Speaker 5: So Xijiping seems secure for the foreseeable future. How does 143 00:08:22,760 --> 00:08:27,040 Speaker 5: the average Chinese person on the ground feel about the world. 144 00:08:27,120 --> 00:08:30,760 Speaker 5: Are they comfortable with China becoming, I guess ever more 145 00:08:31,160 --> 00:08:33,880 Speaker 5: ostracized from the West. Do they want to integrate with 146 00:08:34,000 --> 00:08:36,400 Speaker 5: the West. What's the feeling on the ground. 147 00:08:37,320 --> 00:08:39,000 Speaker 3: I mean, I think look, there are as many different 148 00:08:39,000 --> 00:08:41,280 Speaker 3: opinions within China as there are, you know, in the 149 00:08:41,400 --> 00:08:45,720 Speaker 3: United States, and I think there are people who continue 150 00:08:45,760 --> 00:08:49,760 Speaker 3: to advocate and desire that China be you know, more 151 00:08:49,800 --> 00:08:55,440 Speaker 3: open politically, even more open economically these days to the West. 152 00:08:55,679 --> 00:08:57,520 Speaker 3: There were people who said, you know, she didn't Ping 153 00:08:57,559 --> 00:09:01,199 Speaker 3: made a mistake when he decided to line with Russia 154 00:09:01,200 --> 00:09:04,199 Speaker 3: as opposed to the West after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. 155 00:09:05,080 --> 00:09:08,079 Speaker 3: And then there are people that are very comfortable with 156 00:09:08,760 --> 00:09:13,640 Speaker 3: China's more sort of robust posture on the global stage. 157 00:09:13,640 --> 00:09:18,520 Speaker 3: It's more wolf Weyer diplomacy. So one particular view I 158 00:09:18,520 --> 00:09:21,960 Speaker 3: think within China. But I think we see how Sijinping, 159 00:09:22,120 --> 00:09:25,240 Speaker 3: you know, his approach is, you know, the much more 160 00:09:25,440 --> 00:09:30,240 Speaker 3: activist and expansionist and ambitious China and one that's not 161 00:09:30,320 --> 00:09:34,559 Speaker 3: afraid to take on the West and to assert Chinese interest, 162 00:09:34,720 --> 00:09:38,360 Speaker 3: Chinese values and Chinese priorities the economy. 163 00:09:38,360 --> 00:09:39,880 Speaker 2: And the time we've got left, I've got to go 164 00:09:39,920 --> 00:09:42,360 Speaker 2: to what you led with, which is its new tension 165 00:09:42,400 --> 00:09:47,040 Speaker 2: between a new government in Japan and with China and folks. 166 00:09:47,080 --> 00:09:50,560 Speaker 2: I'm ignorant of this, Okay, I got it. We're doing 167 00:09:50,600 --> 00:09:53,960 Speaker 2: Can we do some surveillance geography now yeh, Google Maps, 168 00:09:54,800 --> 00:09:57,240 Speaker 2: which is seared in the memory of all Americans, and 169 00:09:57,280 --> 00:10:06,319 Speaker 2: you come down southwest there, Mia Kayama, Tarama, Ishigaki, Taka. 170 00:10:05,960 --> 00:10:08,920 Speaker 6: Tonio and Paul helped me. Here there's a little piece 171 00:10:08,920 --> 00:10:09,240 Speaker 6: of lands. 172 00:10:09,240 --> 00:10:13,600 Speaker 2: Sweening nailed this at Lawrence years ago Yonaguni, and on 173 00:10:13,640 --> 00:10:17,120 Speaker 2: a clear day from Yonaguni sometimes you can see Taiwan. 174 00:10:17,200 --> 00:10:17,880 Speaker 7: Can you, okay? 175 00:10:18,000 --> 00:10:21,679 Speaker 6: Japan is that close to China? Liz, what is our 176 00:10:21,720 --> 00:10:26,960 Speaker 6: biggest ignorance about the modern Chinese Japanese relationship. 177 00:10:27,400 --> 00:10:31,640 Speaker 3: I mean, there are there continue to be tensions between 178 00:10:32,000 --> 00:10:36,120 Speaker 3: China and Japan. There are important trading partners, but yeah, 179 00:10:36,440 --> 00:10:38,800 Speaker 3: I think the distance between the closest point of Japan 180 00:10:39,000 --> 00:10:42,720 Speaker 3: and China is only seventy miles. They continue They had 181 00:10:42,720 --> 00:10:46,959 Speaker 3: their own territorial conflict over the dah Use in Kaku Islands, 182 00:10:46,960 --> 00:10:51,080 Speaker 3: which Japan administers but China claims, and China as assertive 183 00:10:51,080 --> 00:10:54,719 Speaker 3: as it's been toward Taiwan militarily over the past few years, 184 00:10:54,760 --> 00:11:00,440 Speaker 3: it's been equally assertive an aggressive militarily toward Japan around 185 00:11:00,440 --> 00:11:04,280 Speaker 3: this particular uh, you know, dispute. So I think from 186 00:11:04,280 --> 00:11:08,600 Speaker 3: the perspective of Japan. They're concerned for Taiwan. Taiwan used 187 00:11:08,600 --> 00:11:11,640 Speaker 3: to be a colony of Japan. Many people in Taiwan 188 00:11:11,800 --> 00:11:16,480 Speaker 3: actually speak Japanese, feel close to Japan, so they have 189 00:11:16,559 --> 00:11:17,920 Speaker 3: their own concerns about Taiwan. 190 00:11:17,960 --> 00:11:19,119 Speaker 4: They have concerns about. 191 00:11:18,960 --> 00:11:21,719 Speaker 3: You know, China dominating the you know, Taiwan straight and 192 00:11:22,240 --> 00:11:24,880 Speaker 3: trade routes there that Japan depends on. 193 00:11:25,480 --> 00:11:28,040 Speaker 4: But they're also concerned about their own security. 194 00:11:28,840 --> 00:11:32,120 Speaker 3: And if you know, China takes action against Taiwan is successful, 195 00:11:32,200 --> 00:11:34,600 Speaker 3: you know, is Japan next? So I think there are 196 00:11:34,600 --> 00:11:37,000 Speaker 3: a number of issues sitting back in the minds of 197 00:11:37,040 --> 00:11:40,960 Speaker 3: the Japanese when it comes to Chinese military action against Taiwan. 198 00:11:41,000 --> 00:11:43,960 Speaker 3: That prompted Prime Minister Takais. 199 00:11:43,520 --> 00:11:47,280 Speaker 5: Comment, Elizabeth, how do you think Japan and our other 200 00:11:47,320 --> 00:11:49,120 Speaker 5: allies and that part of the world did they view 201 00:11:49,200 --> 00:11:52,920 Speaker 5: the commitment from the United States these days? Are they 202 00:11:52,920 --> 00:11:55,480 Speaker 5: as confident as maybe they have been in past years 203 00:11:55,559 --> 00:11:56,240 Speaker 5: or is that wavering? 204 00:11:57,559 --> 00:11:57,599 Speaker 4: No? 205 00:11:57,800 --> 00:12:00,520 Speaker 3: I think, you know, the commitment starts from the top, 206 00:12:00,760 --> 00:12:04,559 Speaker 3: and you know, President Biden was very clear on a 207 00:12:04,640 --> 00:12:07,320 Speaker 3: number of occasions. He said that the United States would 208 00:12:07,320 --> 00:12:10,720 Speaker 3: come to the defense of Taiwan if China were to 209 00:12:10,960 --> 00:12:13,960 Speaker 3: you know, attempt a blockade or a military you know, invasion. 210 00:12:14,480 --> 00:12:16,840 Speaker 4: President Trump has not reiterated that commitment. 211 00:12:16,880 --> 00:12:20,720 Speaker 3: He's gone back to the policy of strategic ambiguity. But 212 00:12:20,840 --> 00:12:23,120 Speaker 3: I think more than that, there's a sense, you know 213 00:12:23,240 --> 00:12:25,680 Speaker 3: that everything was under review at the outset of the 214 00:12:25,679 --> 00:12:26,640 Speaker 3: Trump administration. 215 00:12:27,000 --> 00:12:28,480 Speaker 4: You know, were they going to continue to. 216 00:12:28,400 --> 00:12:32,319 Speaker 3: Support the aufice right, the nuclear submarine deal between Australia, 217 00:12:32,360 --> 00:12:33,319 Speaker 3: the UK and the US. 218 00:12:33,640 --> 00:12:34,920 Speaker 4: There was a lot of uncertainty. 219 00:12:35,360 --> 00:12:39,199 Speaker 3: Ultimately we did support it, but everything seems to be, 220 00:12:39,480 --> 00:12:43,200 Speaker 3: you know, up for grabs, you know, with President Trump again, 221 00:12:43,640 --> 00:12:47,320 Speaker 3: Secretary high Sets, Secretary Rubio have been very firm from 222 00:12:47,360 --> 00:12:50,599 Speaker 3: the minute that the administration took office that there was 223 00:12:50,640 --> 00:12:53,280 Speaker 3: going to be continuity in the US commitment to the 224 00:12:53,280 --> 00:12:57,400 Speaker 3: Indo Pacific. But with President Trump, you know, there there's 225 00:12:57,440 --> 00:13:00,600 Speaker 3: a much higher degree of uncertainty about our commitment to 226 00:13:00,679 --> 00:13:04,319 Speaker 3: our allies and partners than you not only Democrats but 227 00:13:04,720 --> 00:13:06,000 Speaker 3: Republicans in the past. 228 00:13:06,679 --> 00:13:09,240 Speaker 2: Doctor Economy, thank you so much for the generous time 229 00:13:09,679 --> 00:13:14,079 Speaker 2: this morning. Really really appreciate it, Elizabeth Economy. There folks 230 00:13:14,080 --> 00:13:16,520 Speaker 2: from Hoover and from Stanford as well. 231 00:13:16,520 --> 00:13:17,240 Speaker 6: Stay with us. 232 00:13:17,440 --> 00:13:20,679 Speaker 2: More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this. 233 00:13:27,960 --> 00:13:31,520 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live 234 00:13:31,600 --> 00:13:34,720 Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern. Listen on 235 00:13:34,840 --> 00:13:38,480 Speaker 1: Applecarplay and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business app, or 236 00:13:38,640 --> 00:13:40,239 Speaker 1: watch us live on YouTube. 237 00:13:40,559 --> 00:13:42,720 Speaker 6: Chris Whalen with us his book Inflated. 238 00:13:42,760 --> 00:13:46,000 Speaker 2: If you love Ken Burns and the American Revolution, Chris 239 00:13:46,000 --> 00:13:49,760 Speaker 2: Whalen had the courage to take our financial history back 240 00:13:50,120 --> 00:13:52,600 Speaker 2: to the beginning of the nation and drive forward. The 241 00:13:52,679 --> 00:13:57,280 Speaker 2: book is Inflated. Chris, You've been on fire on so 242 00:13:57,400 --> 00:14:00,480 Speaker 2: many debates. Let's start with Fanny and Freddie. Now this 243 00:14:00,640 --> 00:14:03,760 Speaker 2: is Poulte of Fanny and Freddy. Chris Whalen has no 244 00:14:03,880 --> 00:14:07,960 Speaker 2: idea what he's talking about. His statements are becoming false, defamatory, 245 00:14:08,040 --> 00:14:11,559 Speaker 2: and misleading. Where's mister Pulti wrong, Chris Whalen. 246 00:14:13,040 --> 00:14:13,920 Speaker 6: I don't think he. 247 00:14:14,000 --> 00:14:16,600 Speaker 7: Knows what's going on inside his own agency. 248 00:14:16,720 --> 00:14:17,040 Speaker 6: Tom. 249 00:14:17,800 --> 00:14:20,640 Speaker 7: I have no malice against a man. You know, he's 250 00:14:20,680 --> 00:14:25,280 Speaker 7: a thirty seven year old individual who has no background 251 00:14:25,280 --> 00:14:29,400 Speaker 7: in finance and mortgages. So he's a patronage appoint d. 252 00:14:30,080 --> 00:14:33,160 Speaker 7: The president is clearly more concerned with loyalty than he 253 00:14:33,280 --> 00:14:36,000 Speaker 7: is with competence, and I think we just have to 254 00:14:36,040 --> 00:14:39,320 Speaker 7: wait until we get somebody else in that position. We're 255 00:14:39,320 --> 00:14:41,480 Speaker 7: certainly not going to take Fanny May and Freddie mack 256 00:14:41,560 --> 00:14:45,560 Speaker 7: At a conservatorship while Bill Poulty is in that job. 257 00:14:46,160 --> 00:14:46,920 Speaker 7: That's for one thing. 258 00:14:47,120 --> 00:14:50,400 Speaker 2: Mister Ackman says, leave it alone. Is Fanny and Freddie 259 00:14:50,440 --> 00:14:54,280 Speaker 2: Chris Whalen a going concern forward for the nation. Our 260 00:14:54,320 --> 00:14:55,640 Speaker 2: listeners are viewers. 261 00:14:57,160 --> 00:15:01,440 Speaker 7: Yes, they really support half of the mortgage market, the 262 00:15:01,480 --> 00:15:06,200 Speaker 7: middle the middle class, upper middle class borrower typically goes 263 00:15:06,200 --> 00:15:09,800 Speaker 7: through Fann or Freddy and they are an important utility. 264 00:15:09,880 --> 00:15:12,160 Speaker 7: But that's all they should be. We should not be 265 00:15:12,280 --> 00:15:16,440 Speaker 7: trading the common voting shares of Fannymin and Freddie mac 266 00:15:16,880 --> 00:15:19,960 Speaker 7: because the government always controls it. Tom. There's a guy 267 00:15:20,040 --> 00:15:22,360 Speaker 7: named Lewis Brandeis who used to sit on the US 268 00:15:22,400 --> 00:15:25,840 Speaker 7: Supreme Court, and almost a century ago he defined a 269 00:15:25,920 --> 00:15:29,160 Speaker 7: true sale and he said, if you retain dominion over 270 00:15:29,240 --> 00:15:32,840 Speaker 7: the assets, then it is fraud on its face. So 271 00:15:32,920 --> 00:15:36,600 Speaker 7: we should not commit fraud by selling voting shares to 272 00:15:36,640 --> 00:15:40,520 Speaker 7: individuals who do not control either company. You know, I've 273 00:15:40,560 --> 00:15:43,320 Speaker 7: said to Akman and others, we should buy back all 274 00:15:43,320 --> 00:15:46,320 Speaker 7: the voting common shares and fund this thing with debt 275 00:15:46,360 --> 00:15:48,800 Speaker 7: and prefer that's the best way to do it, and 276 00:15:48,880 --> 00:15:51,960 Speaker 7: make them utilities. We don't need to have any alpha here. 277 00:15:51,960 --> 00:15:52,880 Speaker 7: There is no alpha. 278 00:15:53,880 --> 00:15:56,960 Speaker 5: So what do you think the path forward is for 279 00:15:57,080 --> 00:15:58,840 Speaker 5: Fanny and Freddie here? 280 00:15:59,040 --> 00:16:03,240 Speaker 7: And who's going to drive that? But the moment, nothing 281 00:16:03,320 --> 00:16:07,320 Speaker 7: is going to happen. The two enterprises have been turned 282 00:16:07,320 --> 00:16:11,520 Speaker 7: into government agencies. As I've written in my blog this week, 283 00:16:12,000 --> 00:16:15,360 Speaker 7: there is no possibility of them coming out of conservatorship 284 00:16:15,640 --> 00:16:18,400 Speaker 7: because they don't have the people. They haven't invested in 285 00:16:18,440 --> 00:16:21,360 Speaker 7: the systems and other things that they need. So today 286 00:16:21,400 --> 00:16:25,280 Speaker 7: they buy loans from conventional lenders, they package them in 287 00:16:25,320 --> 00:16:27,720 Speaker 7: the securities, and they sell them onto Wall Street. 288 00:16:27,760 --> 00:16:28,400 Speaker 6: That's what they do. 289 00:16:28,760 --> 00:16:33,360 Speaker 7: That's it. Unfortunately, they think they're federal bank regulators. They're not, 290 00:16:34,240 --> 00:16:36,560 Speaker 7: but they treat the industry with a certain degree of 291 00:16:36,640 --> 00:16:41,359 Speaker 7: contempt and indifference, which a lot of people find really irritating. 292 00:16:41,960 --> 00:16:45,080 Speaker 7: I work with many lenders around the country, and I 293 00:16:45,120 --> 00:16:47,280 Speaker 7: think the best thing to do with these entities is 294 00:16:47,360 --> 00:16:50,520 Speaker 7: turned them into utilities, to dumb them down so that 295 00:16:50,680 --> 00:16:53,640 Speaker 7: all they do is buy loans, issue securities. 296 00:16:53,840 --> 00:16:57,600 Speaker 6: That's it. Chris Whalan with US. It's Sir Richard Christopher. 297 00:16:57,200 --> 00:17:02,360 Speaker 2: Whalan Out on Twitter at RCAHA l E n. Also 298 00:17:02,400 --> 00:17:05,960 Speaker 2: on LinkedIn as well, Paul, Here's a quiet tweet from 299 00:17:05,960 --> 00:17:11,159 Speaker 2: Whalen fundamentals question mark, Like what question mark? Bitcoin is 300 00:17:11,160 --> 00:17:13,680 Speaker 2: an option to take advantage of a greater fool. 301 00:17:14,000 --> 00:17:15,879 Speaker 6: It has no intrinsic value. 302 00:17:16,080 --> 00:17:20,040 Speaker 2: Electronic poker chips that people have decided to bid up 303 00:17:20,119 --> 00:17:24,280 Speaker 2: in value. Chris Whalen, everybody in this year off the 304 00:17:24,400 --> 00:17:28,000 Speaker 2: diving board into the deep end of retail and bitcoin. 305 00:17:28,320 --> 00:17:31,440 Speaker 2: What will be the carnage one year out, two years out, 306 00:17:31,600 --> 00:17:32,440 Speaker 2: three years out. 307 00:17:33,720 --> 00:17:36,520 Speaker 7: I think this summer was actually the high point in 308 00:17:36,840 --> 00:17:41,119 Speaker 7: many crypto assets, particularly bitcoin, which is the leader. Wall 309 00:17:41,119 --> 00:17:45,159 Speaker 7: Street killed Bitcoin tom when we started putting up ETFs 310 00:17:45,200 --> 00:17:50,639 Speaker 7: and everything else. We correlated these kind of interesting tokens 311 00:17:50,920 --> 00:17:53,960 Speaker 7: to Wall Street and that was the end. Remember when 312 00:17:53,960 --> 00:17:56,240 Speaker 7: bitcoin came out in two thousand and nine, it was 313 00:17:56,280 --> 00:17:59,200 Speaker 7: supposed to be an alternative to the dollar, a means 314 00:17:59,200 --> 00:18:03,159 Speaker 7: of exchange that wasn't controlled by banks. It's since mutated 315 00:18:03,200 --> 00:18:07,399 Speaker 7: into a speculative vehicle with all sorts of you know, 316 00:18:07,680 --> 00:18:11,119 Speaker 7: accouter amount and everything else. But to me, the dream 317 00:18:11,240 --> 00:18:14,560 Speaker 7: is dead. Whatever value this thing had is a separate 318 00:18:14,640 --> 00:18:19,280 Speaker 7: means of exchange away from fiat currencies is gone. And 319 00:18:19,359 --> 00:18:21,840 Speaker 7: what you see today is that the major central banks 320 00:18:21,840 --> 00:18:25,640 Speaker 7: have been buying gold is now the leading reserve asset 321 00:18:25,680 --> 00:18:28,200 Speaker 7: in the world. They're not going to back their currencies 322 00:18:28,200 --> 00:18:30,719 Speaker 7: one hundred percent with gold. They don't have to. They 323 00:18:30,720 --> 00:18:33,800 Speaker 7: could put twenty percent backing behind them and they would 324 00:18:33,840 --> 00:18:38,040 Speaker 7: be quite robust. You know. The US is the example here, Tom. 325 00:18:38,200 --> 00:18:40,000 Speaker 7: I think there is only a matter of time before 326 00:18:40,119 --> 00:18:44,199 Speaker 7: Treasury and Congress, they have to act, are going to 327 00:18:44,240 --> 00:18:47,639 Speaker 7: revalue US gold stocks. And I think the Treasury should 328 00:18:47,640 --> 00:18:50,280 Speaker 7: buy and sell gold just the way other nations in 329 00:18:50,320 --> 00:18:53,400 Speaker 7: the world do, and that will be our index for inflation. 330 00:18:53,560 --> 00:18:56,679 Speaker 7: By the way, we can teach our people about inflation 331 00:18:57,119 --> 00:18:59,920 Speaker 7: by getting gold back in the center where it belongs. 332 00:19:00,760 --> 00:19:04,320 Speaker 5: If bitcoin doesn't, if bitcoin isn't what it used to be, 333 00:19:04,359 --> 00:19:07,119 Speaker 5: it's more of a trading commodity, is there. How do 334 00:19:07,119 --> 00:19:09,479 Speaker 5: you feel about crypto in general? What's the role of 335 00:19:10,080 --> 00:19:12,200 Speaker 5: broadly defined crypto in our economy? 336 00:19:13,560 --> 00:19:16,560 Speaker 7: The token sens go up and down in value. To me, 337 00:19:16,640 --> 00:19:19,439 Speaker 7: you're just a speculative vehicle. It's a polite form of 338 00:19:19,520 --> 00:19:24,120 Speaker 7: fraud that's tolerable between consenting adults. It's like party poker. 339 00:19:24,359 --> 00:19:27,919 Speaker 7: You know, there is no difference stable coins. I'm not 340 00:19:27,960 --> 00:19:30,919 Speaker 7: sure what the use case is because it's essentially a 341 00:19:30,960 --> 00:19:34,119 Speaker 7: bank deposit. You give me your cash. I have to 342 00:19:34,119 --> 00:19:37,000 Speaker 7: put it in high quality liquid assets that are safe 343 00:19:37,080 --> 00:19:39,280 Speaker 7: kept at a bank, and then you give me the 344 00:19:39,359 --> 00:19:43,199 Speaker 7: use of this coin. If I'm WALMARTD or Amazon and 345 00:19:43,240 --> 00:19:46,359 Speaker 7: I offer my customers a discount for buying my coin, 346 00:19:46,840 --> 00:19:50,119 Speaker 7: I think it makes sense. It's like a prepaid gift card. 347 00:19:50,240 --> 00:19:52,080 Speaker 7: But is it an investment vehicle? 348 00:19:52,240 --> 00:19:52,440 Speaker 3: No? 349 00:19:53,280 --> 00:19:55,720 Speaker 7: I think it just evidence is the amount of inflation 350 00:19:55,840 --> 00:19:58,320 Speaker 7: that we have in our system that you have people 351 00:19:58,400 --> 00:20:02,480 Speaker 7: chasing all of these things for returns instead of doing 352 00:20:02,520 --> 00:20:04,720 Speaker 7: what they should be doing in you know, buying stocks. 353 00:20:04,880 --> 00:20:08,720 Speaker 7: It's like private credit. Tom imagine if people, instead of 354 00:20:08,760 --> 00:20:10,919 Speaker 7: going into private equity, had just bought the S and 355 00:20:10,960 --> 00:20:14,640 Speaker 7: P five hundred, they'd be much better off and they'd be liquid. 356 00:20:15,040 --> 00:20:17,520 Speaker 2: Have we got a surprise in January? Chris Whalen, of 357 00:20:17,520 --> 00:20:24,360 Speaker 2: course nails it form ten ninety nine. Hephen da Chris Whitalen, 358 00:20:24,560 --> 00:20:25,719 Speaker 2: It's coming, isn't it? 359 00:20:26,040 --> 00:20:28,680 Speaker 6: Ten ninety nine? What's it? We have? Ten ninety nine 360 00:20:28,880 --> 00:20:32,600 Speaker 6: R ten ninety nine. This ten ninety nine that Chris Whitalen, 361 00:20:32,640 --> 00:20:34,840 Speaker 6: how much joy are we going to have in ten 362 00:20:34,960 --> 00:20:35,560 Speaker 6: ninety nine? 363 00:20:35,720 --> 00:20:41,000 Speaker 7: Da, Look when we domesticated bitcoin and the other tokens, 364 00:20:41,520 --> 00:20:45,840 Speaker 7: the irs wants their slice, right, you can't escape. So 365 00:20:46,200 --> 00:20:49,920 Speaker 7: there's a great accounting firm in Chicago called Accounting Solutions, 366 00:20:50,200 --> 00:20:53,040 Speaker 7: and he writes these wonderful pieces. That's where I got that, 367 00:20:53,200 --> 00:20:57,040 Speaker 7: by the way, Chris Advanson, and yeah, it had to happen. 368 00:20:57,280 --> 00:21:00,679 Speaker 7: They want their money. And the funny thing about blockchain, 369 00:21:00,880 --> 00:21:04,800 Speaker 7: which is the output from bitcoin that was created at 370 00:21:04,800 --> 00:21:08,520 Speaker 7: the time in two thousand and nine, is it tracks 371 00:21:08,520 --> 00:21:11,440 Speaker 7: all the transactions, so it's a roadmap for the irs 372 00:21:11,480 --> 00:21:12,159 Speaker 7: to come here after you. 373 00:21:12,400 --> 00:21:15,399 Speaker 2: It's really great, Chris Waylon, thank you so much, folks. 374 00:21:15,440 --> 00:21:17,680 Speaker 2: I can't say enough. Throw at the cherubs as fall. 375 00:21:18,040 --> 00:21:20,439 Speaker 6: I'm bored. I don't know what to do over the 376 00:21:20,480 --> 00:21:21,320 Speaker 6: hell this season. 377 00:21:21,640 --> 00:21:25,320 Speaker 2: Throw Chris Whalen's inflated at Then it goes back to 378 00:21:25,359 --> 00:21:26,680 Speaker 2: the Bank of the United States. 379 00:21:26,680 --> 00:21:32,400 Speaker 6: It's a really wonderful, readable walkthrough history. Stay with us. 380 00:21:32,640 --> 00:21:42,960 Speaker 2: More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this. 381 00:21:42,960 --> 00:21:46,840 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Listen live each weekday 382 00:21:46,880 --> 00:21:50,280 Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto 383 00:21:50,320 --> 00:21:53,280 Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live 384 00:21:53,359 --> 00:21:56,919 Speaker 1: on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just 385 00:21:57,000 --> 00:21:59,520 Speaker 1: say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 386 00:22:00,080 --> 00:22:04,320 Speaker 2: We are very fortunate right now Wendy Schiller parachutes in 387 00:22:04,800 --> 00:22:08,600 Speaker 2: a special appearance, and we're thrilled to Professor Schiller definitive 388 00:22:08,640 --> 00:22:12,240 Speaker 2: in our physics, in our civics. I should say, also 389 00:22:12,280 --> 00:22:13,919 Speaker 2: our physics could join us. 390 00:22:14,080 --> 00:22:16,360 Speaker 6: Wehendy. I want to dove tail in something that's. 391 00:22:16,160 --> 00:22:20,040 Speaker 2: Not been reported, which is General Kellogg eighty one years old, 392 00:22:20,560 --> 00:22:25,320 Speaker 2: walks away from the Trump administration. Is this peace excuse me? 393 00:22:25,400 --> 00:22:29,760 Speaker 2: This peace process begins? Does the president have support of 394 00:22:30,000 --> 00:22:33,760 Speaker 2: institutional Washington for this peace process? 395 00:22:35,760 --> 00:22:38,440 Speaker 8: Well, I mean, I think that the Joint administration has 396 00:22:38,520 --> 00:22:42,359 Speaker 8: shown that it wants to shake up institutional Washington, particularly 397 00:22:42,400 --> 00:22:46,040 Speaker 8: institutional military at the Pentagon. Heg Seth has been fairly 398 00:22:46,080 --> 00:22:51,160 Speaker 8: aggressive in firing or dismissing or sidelining people, and he's 399 00:22:51,200 --> 00:22:53,640 Speaker 8: got all sorts of race and diversity reasons, but he's 400 00:22:53,680 --> 00:22:57,159 Speaker 8: also got sort of cartelunch from the President to do 401 00:22:57,200 --> 00:23:00,760 Speaker 8: that so far, So I think they're your own path, 402 00:23:01,119 --> 00:23:03,080 Speaker 8: and I don't think that they're worried about that. I 403 00:23:03,080 --> 00:23:06,639 Speaker 8: think Trump doesn't believe that continued you a support in 404 00:23:06,760 --> 00:23:09,879 Speaker 8: Ukraine is a winner, and this president likes to win. So, 405 00:23:10,280 --> 00:23:13,040 Speaker 8: you know, I think he's finally said to both Rubio 406 00:23:13,080 --> 00:23:15,880 Speaker 8: and Hegseeth, we're done. You know, We're just done. Get 407 00:23:15,960 --> 00:23:18,679 Speaker 8: us out of this, whatever the cost may be to 408 00:23:18,760 --> 00:23:21,360 Speaker 8: get you know, to Ukraine, get us out and get 409 00:23:21,440 --> 00:23:22,040 Speaker 8: us out. Okay. 410 00:23:22,119 --> 00:23:24,679 Speaker 2: The Telegraph has a headline over the weekend of General 411 00:23:24,800 --> 00:23:26,320 Speaker 2: Kellogg full disclosure. 412 00:23:26,320 --> 00:23:27,400 Speaker 6: I'm a huge fan of. 413 00:23:27,280 --> 00:23:31,120 Speaker 2: His public service to the nation Ukraine, Envoyd Keith Kellogg 414 00:23:31,200 --> 00:23:35,840 Speaker 2: quote quits unquote after planned for US peace leaked. How 415 00:23:35,920 --> 00:23:41,600 Speaker 2: alone is President Trump in prosecuting his peace plan with 416 00:23:41,720 --> 00:23:43,720 Speaker 2: mister Putin and mister Zelenski. 417 00:23:45,280 --> 00:23:47,800 Speaker 8: Well, Tom, I think you're pointing out that both the 418 00:23:47,840 --> 00:23:52,200 Speaker 8: world and domestically, President Trump is always quote unquote alone 419 00:23:52,240 --> 00:23:53,320 Speaker 8: because we just don't. 420 00:23:53,080 --> 00:23:54,479 Speaker 9: Know what he will do next. 421 00:23:54,960 --> 00:23:58,959 Speaker 8: He's just simply not just not predictable at all. And 422 00:23:59,119 --> 00:24:01,639 Speaker 8: he you know, when he decides, he decides. He can 423 00:24:01,720 --> 00:24:04,439 Speaker 8: be talked out of something. But he's always sort of 424 00:24:04,640 --> 00:24:06,880 Speaker 8: viewed himself as president as. 425 00:24:07,000 --> 00:24:08,439 Speaker 9: Sole commander in chief. 426 00:24:08,800 --> 00:24:11,600 Speaker 8: So I think in this case, particularly with the pressures 427 00:24:11,640 --> 00:24:16,440 Speaker 8: on the president domestically on affordability, on pricing, on happiness 428 00:24:16,440 --> 00:24:19,680 Speaker 8: within poll numbers, you know, Americans do want the bulk 429 00:24:19,720 --> 00:24:22,080 Speaker 8: of his attention to be on America, the United States 430 00:24:22,080 --> 00:24:25,080 Speaker 8: of America, and I think they're feeling it. Not just 431 00:24:25,119 --> 00:24:27,320 Speaker 8: the president but also the Republicans and Republicans of the 432 00:24:27,320 --> 00:24:30,159 Speaker 8: Congress have been stronger on Ukraine than President Trump. I 433 00:24:30,160 --> 00:24:33,159 Speaker 8: think they've shored up President Trump's commit to Ukraine, but 434 00:24:33,240 --> 00:24:35,840 Speaker 8: I think they all look at twenty twenty six, right 435 00:24:35,840 --> 00:24:39,040 Speaker 8: around the corner of that campaign starts and saying to themselves, 436 00:24:39,280 --> 00:24:41,840 Speaker 8: how long do we justify the billions of dollars of 437 00:24:41,880 --> 00:24:44,439 Speaker 8: aid that we're giving in a war that looks increasingly 438 00:24:44,560 --> 00:24:46,280 Speaker 8: unlikely to resolve itself. 439 00:24:46,400 --> 00:24:49,600 Speaker 6: Brent the blue button, the Detroit Lion blue button. 440 00:24:49,640 --> 00:24:51,840 Speaker 2: Brent Crude down a dollars sixty two to thirty five 441 00:24:52,200 --> 00:24:53,600 Speaker 2: headlines moments ago. 442 00:24:53,680 --> 00:24:56,080 Speaker 6: I want to be very careful here. This from Bloomberg. 443 00:24:56,200 --> 00:25:00,199 Speaker 2: Zelenski Ukraine continues peace plan talk to the US. The 444 00:25:00,240 --> 00:25:04,560 Speaker 2: Secretary of Treasury mister Bessan on China g and Trump 445 00:25:04,640 --> 00:25:08,280 Speaker 2: agreed peace in Ukraine must move forward, Paul Sweeney. 446 00:25:08,560 --> 00:25:09,399 Speaker 6: Professor Schuiler. 447 00:25:09,440 --> 00:25:14,000 Speaker 5: Here, with the midterms point seemingly just right around the 448 00:25:14,040 --> 00:25:17,040 Speaker 5: corner here, how does President Trump kind of focus his 449 00:25:17,160 --> 00:25:20,639 Speaker 5: energy in the coming months? Do you think visa US 450 00:25:20,680 --> 00:25:24,440 Speaker 5: domestic policy versus foreign policy? 451 00:25:24,640 --> 00:25:27,160 Speaker 8: Well, you know, all presidents do the same thing. When 452 00:25:27,160 --> 00:25:29,439 Speaker 8: things are going badly at home. Usually they find a 453 00:25:29,440 --> 00:25:32,159 Speaker 8: way to go abroad or emphasize their accomplishments abroad. 454 00:25:32,200 --> 00:25:34,119 Speaker 9: This is not a partisan tendency. 455 00:25:34,200 --> 00:25:37,440 Speaker 8: He's just like every other president before him, including himself. 456 00:25:38,200 --> 00:25:41,159 Speaker 9: But I think that here it's. 457 00:25:41,080 --> 00:25:44,320 Speaker 8: Unclear what his motivation is. Obviously he can't run again. 458 00:25:44,680 --> 00:25:46,639 Speaker 8: I think he sort of backed off really trying to 459 00:25:46,640 --> 00:25:48,600 Speaker 8: get the Republicans to get him a third term. 460 00:25:48,920 --> 00:25:49,960 Speaker 9: So now what do you do? 461 00:25:50,040 --> 00:25:52,040 Speaker 8: You don't want to be lame duck with no influence. 462 00:25:52,080 --> 00:25:54,600 Speaker 8: I think that will really literally drive president from crazy. 463 00:25:54,880 --> 00:25:59,280 Speaker 8: So domestic is important, But I see the President possibly pivoting. 464 00:25:59,680 --> 00:26:01,480 Speaker 9: I think think that the Republicans. 465 00:26:01,000 --> 00:26:03,280 Speaker 8: In the House that have supported him may have to 466 00:26:03,320 --> 00:26:06,480 Speaker 8: go on a bumpy ride with him in directions that 467 00:26:06,520 --> 00:26:09,280 Speaker 8: they don't want to go, meaning more centrist. I think 468 00:26:09,320 --> 00:26:13,040 Speaker 8: the president is seeing how successful that could be. Look 469 00:26:13,040 --> 00:26:15,800 Speaker 8: at Virginia look at New Jersey in terms of those campaigns, 470 00:26:16,119 --> 00:26:18,840 Speaker 8: and it was his inclination when he became president. So 471 00:26:19,000 --> 00:26:22,439 Speaker 8: on the for example, Obamacare tax subsidies, does anyone really 472 00:26:22,480 --> 00:26:25,879 Speaker 8: believe that Trump won't sign an extension At some point, 473 00:26:26,040 --> 00:26:28,840 Speaker 8: they'll recraft it, they'll tweak it, but he will not 474 00:26:29,119 --> 00:26:31,159 Speaker 8: let this go on for a long time with people 475 00:26:31,240 --> 00:26:35,080 Speaker 8: unable to afford health insurance. So we know he'll do that. 476 00:26:35,160 --> 00:26:37,000 Speaker 8: And then the question is does he let the Congress 477 00:26:37,080 --> 00:26:40,560 Speaker 8: know that he pivots and they're worried about primaries as 478 00:26:40,560 --> 00:26:42,919 Speaker 8: soon as the primary season is over. Trump doesn't have 479 00:26:42,960 --> 00:26:45,760 Speaker 8: nearly as much influence on the general election in the midterms, 480 00:26:45,960 --> 00:26:48,200 Speaker 8: so these Republicans in the House are worried about him 481 00:26:48,240 --> 00:26:51,479 Speaker 8: coming in primary and supporting a challenger. If they can 482 00:26:51,520 --> 00:26:53,960 Speaker 8: get past that hump, I think you see greater separation 483 00:26:54,040 --> 00:26:55,280 Speaker 8: between the president and the Congress. 484 00:26:56,119 --> 00:26:59,520 Speaker 5: So we haven't seen Congress really push back on this 485 00:26:59,560 --> 00:27:02,639 Speaker 5: president at all. And is it the assumption, as you're 486 00:27:02,640 --> 00:27:05,399 Speaker 5: suggesting here, that maybe we won't see that until after 487 00:27:05,520 --> 00:27:06,920 Speaker 5: these midterm elections? 488 00:27:08,280 --> 00:27:10,200 Speaker 9: Yeah, if you do see it at all. 489 00:27:10,240 --> 00:27:12,040 Speaker 8: This Senate pushed back a little bit, right, so he 490 00:27:12,040 --> 00:27:14,400 Speaker 8: said get rid of the filbuster to get my agenda through, 491 00:27:14,440 --> 00:27:16,359 Speaker 8: and Jonathan's like, yeah, no, we're not going to do that. 492 00:27:17,040 --> 00:27:19,440 Speaker 8: So I mean twice he said that, right, So he said, 493 00:27:19,440 --> 00:27:20,399 Speaker 8: I don't have the votes to do that. 494 00:27:20,440 --> 00:27:21,119 Speaker 9: We're not doing that. 495 00:27:21,840 --> 00:27:25,120 Speaker 8: So which also may be an indication the Republicans who've 496 00:27:25,119 --> 00:27:25,480 Speaker 8: been there. 497 00:27:25,359 --> 00:27:27,440 Speaker 9: A long time, it's six years, they'll be there longer 498 00:27:27,480 --> 00:27:29,920 Speaker 9: than Trump, some of them. But they also see maybe 499 00:27:29,960 --> 00:27:32,160 Speaker 9: the Senate actually flips in twenty. 500 00:27:31,880 --> 00:27:33,800 Speaker 8: Six which is even more reason why you wouln't want 501 00:27:33,800 --> 00:27:35,600 Speaker 8: to get rid of the filbuster. But I think that 502 00:27:35,600 --> 00:27:38,000 Speaker 8: the Trump look at the Mom Donnie press conference. I 503 00:27:38,040 --> 00:27:41,000 Speaker 8: don't think people in the House watching that saw that coming. 504 00:27:41,040 --> 00:27:42,840 Speaker 9: Or with all that pleased about it. 505 00:27:42,840 --> 00:27:45,200 Speaker 8: It just shows that this president will pivot on a dime, 506 00:27:45,640 --> 00:27:47,959 Speaker 8: and if he wants to become more popular, the country 507 00:27:47,960 --> 00:27:50,119 Speaker 8: wants more centrism, he may shift. 508 00:27:50,320 --> 00:27:51,959 Speaker 9: Will the House Republicans go with him. 509 00:27:52,320 --> 00:27:55,399 Speaker 2: We welcome all of you worldwide across the Bloomberg. A 510 00:27:55,520 --> 00:28:00,719 Speaker 2: set of headlines, some confusing, very much back and forth 511 00:28:00,760 --> 00:28:04,600 Speaker 2: in different themes. The Russian headlines, that Ukraine headlines, US 512 00:28:04,640 --> 00:28:08,600 Speaker 2: headlines even from London as well. On the peace discussion 513 00:28:09,000 --> 00:28:13,920 Speaker 2: in Ukraine. We have Wendy Schiller of Brown University. With this, Wendy, 514 00:28:14,080 --> 00:28:16,480 Speaker 2: I believe Paul helped me here. We had sort of 515 00:28:16,520 --> 00:28:23,480 Speaker 2: an understanding of a Pentagon military geopolitics advice mechanism in 516 00:28:23,520 --> 00:28:28,240 Speaker 2: the first Trump administration. Do you have any understanding of 517 00:28:28,280 --> 00:28:33,600 Speaker 2: the advising process in the Trump second administration or is 518 00:28:33,640 --> 00:28:37,760 Speaker 2: this President Trump literally doing it maybe with Secretary of 519 00:28:37,840 --> 00:28:38,840 Speaker 2: Rubio and that's it. 520 00:28:41,000 --> 00:28:42,760 Speaker 9: Well, I mean, here's what's interesting. 521 00:28:42,800 --> 00:28:44,680 Speaker 8: He seemed to be so in love with generals in 522 00:28:44,720 --> 00:28:47,520 Speaker 8: the first term, you know, Mark Milly, all the others. 523 00:28:47,560 --> 00:28:48,240 Speaker 9: He really did. 524 00:28:48,680 --> 00:28:51,640 Speaker 8: We had that sort of parade of military people in Washington, 525 00:28:51,720 --> 00:28:55,160 Speaker 8: d C. When he went on the streets of the Capitol. 526 00:28:55,520 --> 00:28:56,120 Speaker 9: He seemed to. 527 00:28:56,080 --> 00:28:58,719 Speaker 8: Really really like him, admire and love them, take their advice. 528 00:28:59,000 --> 00:29:00,760 Speaker 8: And then they were saying, why you can't do this, 529 00:29:00,840 --> 00:29:03,080 Speaker 8: you can't do that, And he decided he must've for 530 00:29:03,160 --> 00:29:06,160 Speaker 8: the last four years before he won reelection that. 531 00:29:05,920 --> 00:29:06,360 Speaker 1: That was it. 532 00:29:06,400 --> 00:29:08,360 Speaker 8: He wasn't doing that again. He didn't trust them. He 533 00:29:08,400 --> 00:29:10,720 Speaker 8: would not let Heseth make the kind of changes to 534 00:29:10,920 --> 00:29:14,040 Speaker 8: sideline these generals if he'd still had an admiration for them. 535 00:29:14,280 --> 00:29:16,440 Speaker 8: I think he's lost a lot of faith and confidence 536 00:29:16,440 --> 00:29:18,520 Speaker 8: that they will go along with what he wants to do. 537 00:29:18,920 --> 00:29:21,760 Speaker 8: So yeah, I think he himself wants to call the shots, 538 00:29:21,800 --> 00:29:25,200 Speaker 8: even over the military, and so I think that's been 539 00:29:25,240 --> 00:29:29,959 Speaker 8: pretty obvious all along there. And it's interesting that Rubio 540 00:29:30,040 --> 00:29:31,640 Speaker 8: went in sort of last minute, right. 541 00:29:31,720 --> 00:29:33,600 Speaker 9: Rubio wasn't sort of the front of the line. 542 00:29:33,400 --> 00:29:35,480 Speaker 8: On these peace negotiations, and then all of a sudden 543 00:29:35,520 --> 00:29:37,520 Speaker 8: things are going badly, Rubio gets on. 544 00:29:37,480 --> 00:29:39,960 Speaker 9: A plane and then now we have an outcome. 545 00:29:40,000 --> 00:29:43,360 Speaker 8: I think the president wants interesting from Marco Rubio standing 546 00:29:43,360 --> 00:29:45,960 Speaker 8: with the president, if you think about it, and I 547 00:29:46,000 --> 00:29:48,520 Speaker 8: think this is I think it's clear Trump has told 548 00:29:48,680 --> 00:29:51,240 Speaker 8: whoever is in the room or will be in the room, 549 00:29:51,560 --> 00:29:52,880 Speaker 8: get it done. 550 00:29:53,200 --> 00:29:55,240 Speaker 9: I want to pull out. I don't want to do 551 00:29:55,320 --> 00:29:57,680 Speaker 9: this anymore. And I think that. 552 00:29:57,640 --> 00:30:00,840 Speaker 8: Kind of pressure on Zelensky may lead to some sort 553 00:30:00,840 --> 00:30:01,080 Speaker 8: of peace. 554 00:30:01,520 --> 00:30:03,320 Speaker 6: We treasure your appearance. When do you show? Are on 555 00:30:03,560 --> 00:30:06,000 Speaker 6: very short notice this morning, Stay with us. 556 00:30:06,240 --> 00:30:16,520 Speaker 2: More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this. 557 00:30:16,520 --> 00:30:20,440 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday 558 00:30:20,480 --> 00:30:23,800 Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto 559 00:30:23,880 --> 00:30:26,880 Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live 560 00:30:26,920 --> 00:30:30,520 Speaker 1: on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just 561 00:30:30,560 --> 00:30:33,080 Speaker 1: say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 562 00:30:33,160 --> 00:30:34,840 Speaker 6: It's time to do the newspapers today. 563 00:30:34,840 --> 00:30:38,360 Speaker 2: We're not going to talk butterball or wild range turkey 564 00:30:38,440 --> 00:30:41,600 Speaker 2: here two hundred dollars for a ten pound. 565 00:30:41,280 --> 00:30:44,320 Speaker 6: Turkey rail things, Holy sco. We're not going to do that. 566 00:30:44,360 --> 00:30:51,360 Speaker 2: We're gonna do the newspapers because we're serious, Lisa, we. 567 00:30:51,400 --> 00:30:52,120 Speaker 6: Will get there. 568 00:30:52,680 --> 00:30:55,680 Speaker 10: I want to start with this one because affordable housing 569 00:30:55,760 --> 00:30:58,440 Speaker 10: right a big point of major focus in New York City. 570 00:30:58,440 --> 00:31:00,520 Speaker 10: So officials say they might have solutions, and what they're 571 00:31:00,520 --> 00:31:04,600 Speaker 10: talking about is tiny living. Yes, more smaller apartments. 572 00:31:04,880 --> 00:31:05,440 Speaker 9: Here we go. 573 00:31:05,600 --> 00:31:08,960 Speaker 10: How small are we talking about? One hundred square feet each? 574 00:31:09,120 --> 00:31:12,080 Speaker 10: So think of it like a college door. More like 575 00:31:12,120 --> 00:31:16,600 Speaker 10: it has shared kitchen space, shared living space, a share 576 00:31:16,640 --> 00:31:20,400 Speaker 10: of bathrooms. It's not a new concept, but city officials 577 00:31:20,400 --> 00:31:21,880 Speaker 10: say there should be more of them, so they want 578 00:31:21,920 --> 00:31:23,400 Speaker 10: to build more of them. You have a councilman who 579 00:31:23,440 --> 00:31:26,560 Speaker 10: represents part of Manhattan. He's expected to interest that bill 580 00:31:26,640 --> 00:31:29,800 Speaker 10: today and basically it's going to it's going to make 581 00:31:29,840 --> 00:31:31,360 Speaker 10: it easier to convert office buildings. 582 00:31:31,680 --> 00:31:34,000 Speaker 2: I saw it chart over the weekend of where do 583 00:31:34,080 --> 00:31:35,560 Speaker 2: people want to move in America? 584 00:31:36,040 --> 00:31:39,080 Speaker 6: Number two was Los Angeles and number one was New 585 00:31:39,160 --> 00:31:42,200 Speaker 6: York City. Still there's always a ton always you always 586 00:31:42,480 --> 00:31:45,480 Speaker 6: you live. This is a ton of people. We need 587 00:31:45,480 --> 00:31:48,120 Speaker 6: more supply, not a house. 588 00:31:48,520 --> 00:31:51,760 Speaker 5: Well, I don't think countryble housing in New York it's 589 00:31:51,880 --> 00:31:53,560 Speaker 5: has it ever been affordable? 590 00:31:54,000 --> 00:31:54,200 Speaker 6: No? 591 00:31:54,280 --> 00:31:56,800 Speaker 10: I mean they're saying this will be about fifteen hundred 592 00:31:56,800 --> 00:31:59,440 Speaker 10: dollars a month to be part of this in paces 593 00:31:59,480 --> 00:32:02,880 Speaker 10: like Bedstye Clinton Hill, where usually goes for about three 594 00:32:02,880 --> 00:32:05,600 Speaker 10: thousand a month. Okay, all right, so a break, so 595 00:32:05,800 --> 00:32:08,920 Speaker 10: one hundred square feet, Yeah, it's you're living in a storm. 596 00:32:08,960 --> 00:32:09,200 Speaker 7: It is. 597 00:32:09,240 --> 00:32:13,720 Speaker 10: I guess for young people, it's an option to get 598 00:32:13,720 --> 00:32:15,200 Speaker 10: your foot in the door. I guess in the city. 599 00:32:15,280 --> 00:32:17,120 Speaker 5: Yeah, we had three people in a two kind of 600 00:32:17,160 --> 00:32:18,520 Speaker 5: a one and a half bedroom back in the day 601 00:32:18,520 --> 00:32:19,360 Speaker 5: when I'm moving in the city. 602 00:32:19,520 --> 00:32:20,920 Speaker 6: But three people sipped on four. 603 00:32:21,840 --> 00:32:23,360 Speaker 7: It was fine and it worked, all right. 604 00:32:23,560 --> 00:32:27,479 Speaker 10: Next, okay, let's go to the butter ball. Okay, all right, 605 00:32:27,560 --> 00:32:30,400 Speaker 10: So are you enjoying here the cooked bird? Are you 606 00:32:30,400 --> 00:32:32,000 Speaker 10: going out to eat? I think Paul you said you 607 00:32:32,000 --> 00:32:34,000 Speaker 10: were going out right? Are you getting a home cook? 608 00:32:34,040 --> 00:32:38,480 Speaker 10: You're going out too? Oh my gosh, has. 609 00:32:38,360 --> 00:32:41,280 Speaker 6: Green birds smump turkey from Texas. 610 00:32:41,480 --> 00:32:41,680 Speaker 1: Nice. 611 00:32:42,520 --> 00:32:44,640 Speaker 10: We see you're you're on the right track. Because this 612 00:32:44,680 --> 00:32:46,960 Speaker 10: is in the journal. They're saying that all these restaurants, 613 00:32:47,000 --> 00:32:49,640 Speaker 10: because people are going out, they're coming up with these 614 00:32:49,680 --> 00:32:52,640 Speaker 10: like new age turkeys. Okay, like some of them have 615 00:32:52,920 --> 00:32:56,959 Speaker 10: a jerk turkey, a peaking turkey, a tandory turkey, turkey 616 00:32:57,000 --> 00:33:00,680 Speaker 10: Alpas store. You also have a French take on the turkey. 617 00:33:00,760 --> 00:33:03,880 Speaker 10: We don't want to get into that one. But because 618 00:33:03,880 --> 00:33:06,120 Speaker 10: they're saying turkeys are like they lack flavor, it's hard 619 00:33:06,120 --> 00:33:09,120 Speaker 10: to do it. So their chefs are like deboning a turkey. 620 00:33:09,120 --> 00:33:12,160 Speaker 10: They're stuffing it with pineapple, they're massaging it. 621 00:33:12,280 --> 00:33:15,560 Speaker 2: You know, hours All my work yesterday and my prep 622 00:33:15,600 --> 00:33:20,560 Speaker 2: into the weekend was trumped by Lisa Matteo putting yogurt 623 00:33:20,640 --> 00:33:21,560 Speaker 2: in mashed potato. 624 00:33:21,800 --> 00:33:27,120 Speaker 10: There's also a turkey with a yogurt marinate bingos. Everybody's happy. 625 00:33:27,560 --> 00:33:28,719 Speaker 10: Everybody's happy with that. 626 00:33:29,120 --> 00:33:29,959 Speaker 6: It's Delicio Bud. 627 00:33:30,960 --> 00:33:32,800 Speaker 10: It's a lot of work. It's a lot of work. 628 00:33:32,840 --> 00:33:33,600 Speaker 10: God bless my. 629 00:33:35,440 --> 00:33:39,480 Speaker 5: I'll clean for two hours afterwards and clean as long 630 00:33:39,480 --> 00:33:42,000 Speaker 5: as there's a glass of wine there. And I'm good. 631 00:33:42,160 --> 00:33:43,040 Speaker 10: I'll clean all day long. 632 00:33:43,240 --> 00:33:43,440 Speaker 8: I do. 633 00:33:43,560 --> 00:33:46,920 Speaker 10: I'm always at the same Yes, okay, So as a 634 00:33:46,920 --> 00:33:50,000 Speaker 10: local reporter. Over the years, I've covered Thanksgiving parade, right, 635 00:33:50,040 --> 00:33:50,760 Speaker 10: I've covered. 636 00:33:50,480 --> 00:33:51,840 Speaker 6: A blowing up of the balloons. 637 00:33:51,920 --> 00:33:55,040 Speaker 10: I've covered all that, the training at Metlife's you know, 638 00:33:55,120 --> 00:33:57,800 Speaker 10: city field wherever they host it. But I never saw 639 00:33:57,840 --> 00:34:01,520 Speaker 10: the takedown how they get the balloons down. And the 640 00:34:01,720 --> 00:34:06,880 Speaker 10: Street Journal has this great look, fantastic pictures. Volunteers train 641 00:34:07,040 --> 00:34:09,720 Speaker 10: at flight schools because they have to get these things 642 00:34:09,840 --> 00:34:12,759 Speaker 10: down in like fifteen minutes, because if they don't, you 643 00:34:12,800 --> 00:34:15,280 Speaker 10: have a whole parade coming behind you and they're gonna 644 00:34:15,280 --> 00:34:17,920 Speaker 10: trail your fance right over you. So they have to 645 00:34:18,040 --> 00:34:21,479 Speaker 10: like yanke the zippers, gusts of helium. They're told don't 646 00:34:21,480 --> 00:34:24,960 Speaker 10: breathe in, don't break it. And then so they do 647 00:34:24,960 --> 00:34:27,320 Speaker 10: it at the trade route right, Yes, and it's like 648 00:34:27,360 --> 00:34:30,759 Speaker 10: an assembly line. It's like this mass deck to get it, 649 00:34:30,800 --> 00:34:32,640 Speaker 10: you know, after Santa does his little wave, it's like 650 00:34:32,640 --> 00:34:35,200 Speaker 10: this mass mad dash to get all these down things up. 651 00:34:35,280 --> 00:34:36,680 Speaker 6: Oh, they do have good pictures in the journal. 652 00:34:36,680 --> 00:34:40,040 Speaker 10: They have good pictures, but they have to avoid the 653 00:34:40,040 --> 00:34:41,920 Speaker 10: pile up because you don't want snoopy piling on. 654 00:34:41,880 --> 00:34:44,040 Speaker 6: Top of like snooperman. I didn't even think of that. 655 00:34:44,160 --> 00:34:47,439 Speaker 6: You know, what, was the worst rain that you ever 656 00:34:47,600 --> 00:34:50,960 Speaker 6: confronted at the parade up to your knees? 657 00:34:51,640 --> 00:34:53,320 Speaker 10: No, no, I mean it was an umbrella, it was 658 00:34:53,560 --> 00:34:56,320 Speaker 10: it was fine. Yeah, but it's the cold. 659 00:34:56,800 --> 00:34:59,640 Speaker 9: It's cold there hours. 660 00:35:00,320 --> 00:35:03,120 Speaker 6: Yeah, Lisa Mateo, the newspapers, thank you so much. 661 00:35:03,239 --> 00:35:08,040 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, 662 00:35:08,160 --> 00:35:12,440 Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday, 663 00:35:12,600 --> 00:35:16,040 Speaker 1: seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the 664 00:35:16,120 --> 00:35:20,160 Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You 665 00:35:20,200 --> 00:35:23,560 Speaker 1: can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and 666 00:35:23,760 --> 00:35:25,480 Speaker 1: always on the Bloomberg terminal