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Speaker 2: Welcome Back, Episode two fifty seven, What's Right with Nick
Speaker 2: Wright and my absolute single favorite episode of the year.
Speaker 2: Our NFL season preview gambling show, all thirty two teams,
Speaker 2: all thirty two over unders pared down to six to
Speaker 2: ten that we love that we will bet that we
Speaker 2: will put our actual money on monitor throughout the season,
Speaker 2: and for the ones we don't bet, we still give
Speaker 2: you a lean and a direction we would bet so
Speaker 2: over the course of the year we can see how
Speaker 2: we're doing on them. We will give you division winners,
Speaker 2: at least some. We'll give you make miss playoff bets.
Speaker 2: We will give you our Super Bowl EXACTA, which, for
Speaker 2: the record, the two years I've given out the Super
Speaker 2: Bowl exactly two years ago Chiefs Niners, the Chiefs made it,
Speaker 2: and the Niners were in the NFC Championship Game. Last
Speaker 2: year Chiefs Cowboys, where the Chiefs made it and the
Speaker 2: Cowboys were the two seed in the NFC. They obviously
Speaker 2: ended up falling apart, but those were what my buddy
Speaker 2: Danny Parkins and now amazingly my co worker Danny Parkins
Speaker 2: would say, good value losers. They weren't winning bets, but
Speaker 2: they were good value smart bets at where we got them.
Speaker 2: So we're gonna do all of that. I also am
Speaker 2: going to give you a bit of a premise on
Speaker 2: how I do some of this work throughout the show.
Speaker 2: But first, what missed the cut? Ceedee Lamb signs the
Speaker 2: most inevitable contract extension ever four years, won thirty six,
Speaker 2: Nick Chubb missing the first at least the first four games,
Speaker 2: and the Chargers sadly and scarily get stuck in the
Speaker 2: elevator demonse, Are you as excited for this show as
Speaker 2: I am?
Speaker 3: I'm super excited. Surprised that CD getting his contract missed
Speaker 3: the It was in the what miss you know with
Speaker 3: it being such a huge thing, But listen.
Speaker 2: The yeah we had the producers had the picks being
Speaker 2: the A block and then a regular show in the
Speaker 2: B block, and I was like, well, that's gonna be
Speaker 2: a three and a half hour show. I don't know
Speaker 2: how long they think it's going to take me to
Speaker 2: go through all thirty two over unders and then another
Speaker 2: twenty bets we're making, but it wouldn't be a nice
Speaker 2: tight twenty by the way, on that note, I did
Speaker 2: want to well, actually I don't even remember what I
Speaker 2: wanted to say, so we'll just get to it.
Speaker 3: Oh I do.
Speaker 2: I will give one other thing. No, two years ago
Speaker 2: when we did this, we made a lot of money
Speaker 2: and we won. Last year, we did very poorly on
Speaker 2: our exotic bets, as you will see later in the show.
Speaker 2: Because we're accountable, we're going to show you all of
Speaker 2: our picks from last year, where we went right, where
Speaker 2: we went wrong, and how we're going to try to
Speaker 2: learn from that experience this season. So there's the premise,
Speaker 2: Demons get us going.
Speaker 3: Yeah, so last year our gambling preview was Diora's last show,
Speaker 3: so I feel like that probably gave us some bad vibes,
Speaker 3: put us off to a bad start.
Speaker 2: But this year, that's nice, sister.
Speaker 3: I'm starting off and I'll be here all throughout to
Speaker 3: help you. So okay, well that's good, go ahead, amazing, amazing,
Speaker 3: I'll be here throughout. But yeah, So first off, we've
Speaker 3: got the teams that were betting, that were not betting
Speaker 3: or in other words, stay away.
Speaker 2: Our stay aways. Okay, so there are gonna be about
Speaker 2: twenty of these that I don't have a super I
Speaker 2: don't have a strong enough feel on to put money on,
Speaker 2: but I still like a side. Meaning none of these
Speaker 2: teams am I gonna say, Ah, the numbers perfect, you know,
Speaker 2: I'm not giving you a thought on it. So these
Speaker 2: we're gonna roll through and we have them ordered from
Speaker 2: the highest projected win total to the lowest win total
Speaker 2: of the teams we're not betting on, if that makes sense.
Speaker 2: So we will start with the Niners, whose projected win
Speaker 2: total is eleven and a half. Oh one other thing. Sorry,
Speaker 2: I'm just so excited we are because we're adults and
Speaker 2: we're actual gamblers. We are going to do this show
Speaker 2: with the real juice attached to it. So the Niners
Speaker 2: total is eleven and a half, but that does not
Speaker 2: mean well if you bet over under, it's you know,
Speaker 2: minus one and ten on both Like on almost all
Speaker 2: of these, there is significant juice on one side or
Speaker 2: the other. By the way, if you're listening right now
Speaker 2: and you're like, what do you mean by juice, this
Speaker 2: show might not exactly be for you, or you just
Speaker 2: need to not worry about the minute of the gambling talk.
Speaker 2: Just giving shit as always, thank you, as always demands
Speaker 2: with everything football gambling related. If I say a minus number,
Speaker 2: we're not talking point spreads here, that is how much
Speaker 2: you have to wager to win one hundred dollars. If
Speaker 2: I say a plus number, that is how much you
Speaker 2: win if you wager one hundred dollars. Okay, So that
Speaker 2: is the very simple way to look at it. The
Speaker 2: Niners total is eleven and a half. I don't feel
Speaker 2: strongly enough about it to bet it, But if I
Speaker 2: were to bet it, I would be betting under eleven
Speaker 2: and a half getting plus one twenty six. And the
Speaker 2: rationale of that is very simple. They've had an brutal offseason.
Speaker 2: They are you still not there? Trent Williams still isn't there.
Speaker 2: Brock Purdy has been eh not great this preseason and offseason,
Speaker 2: so I think winning twelve games is hard. I also
Speaker 2: think that division is better than people necessarily think it,
Speaker 2: or then maybe some people think it is so Nick,
Speaker 2: why are you not betting it? Then because they're the Niners.
Speaker 2: They might have one of the best rosters in football.
Speaker 2: I'd rather I think there are better spots, and I
Speaker 2: just think there are better spots to go out there
Speaker 2: and put your money on it. By the way, speaking
Speaker 2: of the division, what demands And I'm curious how you
Speaker 2: feel about this because you haven't seen this from me,
Speaker 2: but this will inform the audience for the about the
Speaker 2: rest of the show. One of the things I do
Speaker 2: is I power rank the divisions on my own when
Speaker 2: I'm thinking about projected win totals. Okay, so here is
Speaker 2: how I have ranked the divisions. I've done it one
Speaker 2: through eight, but I've also put them in three buckets
Speaker 2: of the best, as you would say, mid and then
Speaker 2: the bottom bucket. Best division in football, I believe is
Speaker 2: the NFC North. I think you have the Lions, the Bears,
Speaker 2: the Packers who are all good, the Vikings, who I
Speaker 2: think have a really good coach, the quarterback situation is
Speaker 2: going to be tough for them. I think that's the
Speaker 2: best division in football. The second best division in football,
Speaker 2: I believe to be the NFC West, where you have
Speaker 2: the Rams, the Niners, and the Seahawks, all legitimate teams,
Speaker 2: and a potentially frisky Cardinals team. And then the third
Speaker 2: best division in football is the AFC North. The Ravens
Speaker 2: Bengals are excellent, the Steelers, Browns are well coached with
Speaker 2: good defenses. Those three divisions, to me, Demansea are head
Speaker 2: and shoulders above the rest. How does that land you
Speaker 2: on your step?
Speaker 3: I thought the North maybe be ahead of the West
Speaker 3: in my opinion, either in that too or AFC. You
Speaker 3: think the AAC nor North would be higher than the
Speaker 3: NFC West. Yeah, that's just my opinion. I can honestly,
Speaker 3: I honestly put AFC North at number one. But that's
Speaker 3: just so.
Speaker 2: I think most people would. No, I don't think it's
Speaker 2: just you. I think most people would. But it informed
Speaker 2: my picks this year. Here's why I didn't. I don't
Speaker 2: think the Steelers are going to be good, and I
Speaker 2: think the Browns have a disaster on their hands. At
Speaker 2: the quarterback spot. So I think people look at it as, oh,
Speaker 2: those are four legitimate teams. I don't. I think that
Speaker 2: there's two excellent teams and two okay teams. Meanwhile, the
Speaker 2: NFC North and the NFC West, I think it's each
Speaker 2: division has three good teams Seahawks, Rams, Niners, Bears, Packers, Lions.
Speaker 3: All.
Speaker 2: Right. Now to the two mid divisions, Okay, that I
Speaker 2: have at number four the AFC South and at number
Speaker 2: five the AFC East. And that is because the AFC
Speaker 2: South I don't think has any outstanding team, but has
Speaker 2: two maybe three good teams in the Texans, the Jags,
Speaker 2: the Colts, and then the Titans are there. The AFC
Speaker 2: East I feel similarly, I don't think there's a juggernaut,
Speaker 2: but I think there are three good ish teams in
Speaker 2: the Bills, the Jets, and the Dolphins. And then the
Speaker 2: reason that that the AFCs could be higher, but the
Speaker 2: Patriots are so bad that they drag the like they're
Speaker 2: just I mean, they might be a three win team
Speaker 2: and so they drag it down. And then so does
Speaker 2: that sound about right to you?
Speaker 3: Yeah? I like that one. Yeah.
Speaker 2: And then the bottom three divisions, here's how I've got
Speaker 2: it number six. The NFC East, where I am not,
Speaker 2: as you will see, as high on Philly as a
Speaker 2: lot of people. Dallas has not had a great offseason.
Speaker 2: The Commanders could be interesting, and the Giants will be terrible.
Speaker 2: The AFC West I have at seven because the Chiefs
Speaker 2: are awesome. The Chargers are I think going to be
Speaker 2: better because of Harball, but they have no weapons, and
Speaker 2: I think this is kind of a build year. The
Speaker 2: Broncos are one of the least on paper talented teams
Speaker 2: in the league, even though I actually think they'll be
Speaker 2: sneaky better than people think this year. And the Raiders
Speaker 2: are brutal. And then, obviously, and last is the NFC
Speaker 2: South as it has been regularly over the last few years.
Speaker 2: So that's how I ranked the divisions. NFC North, NFC West,
Speaker 2: AFC North, followed by AFC South, AFC East, followed by
Speaker 2: NFC East, AFC West, NFC South. All right, now back
Speaker 2: to our actual gambling show. We're ten minutes in. We've
Speaker 2: given out one over under. This is why we couldn't
Speaker 2: do the cd LAMB topic Detroit. The total is ten
Speaker 2: and a half. You know what, I want to do
Speaker 2: this for these ones we're not picking, don't look at
Speaker 2: the Rundown demons, all right, Okay, I want to do
Speaker 2: it like this for the ones we're not picking, and
Speaker 2: you don't have to worry about the juice because I
Speaker 2: I'm gonna tell you the team and the number, and
Speaker 2: you just tell me if you which way you would
Speaker 2: lean over under and if it's one, and you can
Speaker 2: also say if you love it. Obviously, none of these
Speaker 2: are ones I love because they're in the teams. We're
Speaker 2: not betting. Detroit's ten numbers ten and a half. The
Speaker 2: juice is on the over at minus one thirty.
Speaker 3: Yeah, that that's that's honestly a tough one i'd have.
Speaker 3: I'd have to go under just because I've been saying
Speaker 3: that I think the Lions are gonna take a step
Speaker 3: back this year.
Speaker 2: Okay, so that was one I don't know.
Speaker 3: But I'll also let me say that I don't love
Speaker 3: going under.
Speaker 2: But that's just yeah, right, So that's why to stay away.
Speaker 2: So that's why to stay away, because I'm going over
Speaker 2: and I don't and I have a team in their
Speaker 2: division making the super Bowl in Chicago, so I I
Speaker 2: you know, it's obviously a conflicted but if I had
Speaker 2: to go one way, I'd go over. All right, Baltimore's
Speaker 2: total is ten and a half, it's juiced to the
Speaker 2: it's juice to the under at minus one twenty two.
Speaker 3: I'd bet over. I love it. I think the I
Speaker 3: think Lamar Jackson is going to have his best season ever,
Speaker 3: which is crazy because he's had some really good regular seasons.
Speaker 3: But I just think all the cards are on the
Speaker 3: table for for Lamar Jackson. At this point. You can
Speaker 3: just play football, and I think it's I think it's
Speaker 3: going to go very well. They got everybody they had
Speaker 3: last year with the respect.
Speaker 2: Except here's no well, so they have they have all
Speaker 2: their weapons, but lost a couple offensive linemen, lost a
Speaker 2: couple of defensive pieces, and lost their defensive coordinator. So
Speaker 2: I again, these are not ones I feel strongly about,
Speaker 2: but I lean I would lean under Buffalo's number ten
Speaker 2: and a half, juiced heavily to the under. It's like
Speaker 2: minus one fifty five for the under on that Buffalo's
Speaker 2: total is ten and a half. Which way do you lean?
Speaker 3: I'll go under on it. Yeah, that's wow.
Speaker 2: On the I'm glad that these are stay aways because
Speaker 2: you and I have disagreed on all of them so far.
Speaker 2: To me, I like the over, and this is where
Speaker 2: the juice on this matters to me, Buffalo, this is
Speaker 2: a perfect number. Buffalo is going to win ten or
Speaker 2: eleven games. So if I can get plus one thirty
Speaker 2: five on the over and minus one fifty five on
Speaker 2: the under, I would go over for Buffalo. But again,
Speaker 2: these are stayaways. All right, we'll do this faster in
Speaker 2: this regard. Here are the teams at nine and a
Speaker 2: half that were staying away from Houston and Atlanta. They
Speaker 2: are both at nine and a half. They are both
Speaker 2: minus won forty juice to the over. How do you
Speaker 2: feel about each of those teams?
Speaker 3: Houston at nine and a half, Yeah, I'd say I
Speaker 3: like that one. I like the over on it. I'd
Speaker 3: go over on it.
Speaker 2: Okay, that's where I would be leaning as well.
Speaker 3: Go ahead. Next it was the second one was Atlanta over, Yeah,
Speaker 3: I call it over. I'd be cool with going around
Speaker 3: nine and a half when Atlant me too.
Speaker 2: Again, these are stayways, but that's how I feel. Houston.
Speaker 2: I think there's a little too much like Super Bowl buzz.
Speaker 2: But they're gonna I don't think they're gonna be bad,
Speaker 2: so they're gonna be, you know, at least five hundred.
Speaker 2: So five hundred puts you at nine and eight essentially,
Speaker 2: So I would tend to lean to the over there
Speaker 2: and Atlanta. I really like the addition of Jude, on
Speaker 2: the addition of the safety. All of a sudden, the
Speaker 2: defense isn't such a disaster of perks healthy all right.
Speaker 2: Here are the eight and a half teams, The Chargers,
Speaker 2: the Browns, the Colts, and the Steelers are all eight
Speaker 2: and a half. Obviously the juice where you don't have
Speaker 2: to get into it on these that were staying away
Speaker 2: from these, The juice varies. How do you where would
Speaker 2: you lean on? Chargers, Browns, called Steelers all eight and
Speaker 2: a half?
Speaker 3: Chargers at eight and a half, I'd go, man, the
Speaker 3: Chargers go win nine games, So I guess it depends
Speaker 3: all of the schedule. Was yeah, over, I'm cool with
Speaker 3: going over for the Chargers.
Speaker 2: Yes, keep in mind yes, and keep in mind last
Speaker 2: place schedule for them because they were so bad last year. Yes,
Speaker 2: last year the Raiders and Broncos and the hardball bump.
Speaker 2: So I'm with you. I'd be an over for the Chargers,
Speaker 2: and this some full disclosure here. This would have been
Speaker 2: a bet. I would have bet the over for the
Speaker 2: Chargers if Herbert didn't get the planner fascia or planner
Speaker 2: for shyness. That one worries me. The walking boot worries me.
Speaker 2: And I know they're saying it's gonna be healthy week one,
Speaker 2: but all the internet doctors say it could flare up,
Speaker 2: and so that made it a stay away. Otherwise I
Speaker 2: would have done it all right. The other three are Cleveland, Indy,
Speaker 2: and Pittsburgh. Are that they're all eight and a half.
Speaker 3: Indy, I'm gonna go under eight and a half. I'm
Speaker 3: sorry Richardson.
Speaker 2: I know I want to Rooper Anthony Richardson, and I
Speaker 2: know they won nine games with Gardner, but I'm also
Speaker 2: going under.
Speaker 3: Next Cleveland, Cleveland eight and a half. Uh, i'd say Cleveland,
Speaker 3: I'd go over on Cleveland. I'm not gonna go under
Speaker 3: on it. I mean that Cleveland. I'm sorry. Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, Cleveland. Yeah,
Speaker 3: I guess yeah that I'd go under, not just because
Speaker 3: you said I.
Speaker 2: I think I think Deshaun's going to potentially get benched.
Speaker 2: I mean it's weird that they brought in Jamis I
Speaker 2: and so I. That's just something to watch Pittsburgh. I
Speaker 2: think their quarterback situation is going to be a disaster.
Speaker 2: I think that you're figured.
Speaker 3: It out pretty fast. I don't think they'll think they'll
Speaker 3: cut the core quick, but.
Speaker 2: I don't think that they I think it's I think
Speaker 2: the options are this car is a flat tire and
Speaker 2: this car is a blown transmission. It's not like figuring
Speaker 2: it out. It's like, nope, we're just not gonna actually
Speaker 2: get too far.
Speaker 3: Ok.
Speaker 2: I think this is the year Tomlin streak breaks.
Speaker 3: All right?
Speaker 2: Uh, here are there's a bunch of seven and a Half's. Okay,
Speaker 2: and again if people are just joining us, which pretty
Speaker 2: weird because it's a podcast, but maybe you are. Maybe
Speaker 2: you're joining late Live on YouTube. Uh, these are the
Speaker 2: bets we're actually not making. These are stay aways. But
Speaker 2: I still want to be on the record for all
Speaker 2: thirty two teams. Here are the seven and a half's
Speaker 2: pardon me, Minnesota, Tampa, Seattle, New Orleans, Arizona. Those are
Speaker 2: all the seven and a halfs, So Minnesota. I want
Speaker 2: to go first on Minnesota. Then we can go to
Speaker 2: the others. Minnesota to me was going to be a
Speaker 2: bet at under seven and a half because Donald Donald's
Speaker 2: not good, this is not good. Hockinson is on the
Speaker 2: pup list, They've had defensive injuries. But the juice they
Speaker 2: should just move the number to six and a half.
Speaker 2: The juice on the under is minus one seventy. I
Speaker 2: can't lay minus one seventy on a on a season
Speaker 2: win bet of involving one team. I'm just not doing
Speaker 2: that over. So the over is like plus one fifty.
Speaker 2: But they're also not winning eight games, so you're kind
Speaker 2: of stuck there, like and so I mean maybe they could,
Speaker 2: I guess because they have a great coach in Justin Jefferson. Yeah,
Speaker 2: so Minnesoter So all right, So Tampa, Seattle, New Orleans,
Speaker 2: Arizona are the other seven and a half's. It's interesting
Speaker 2: because those four teams are all probably fighting. You know,
Speaker 2: Vegas thinks they're fighting for the final wild card spot
Speaker 2: in the NFC. They're you know, they're out. How do
Speaker 2: you lean on those new teams?
Speaker 3: New Orleans I'd go under, I know that. And then
Speaker 3: yeah in Seattle.
Speaker 2: And also Derek, I'd lean over for Seattle as well.
Speaker 2: I say, one hundred percent, but I have it as
Speaker 2: a stay away, so that's kind of weird. Maybe I
Speaker 2: feel more strongly about New Orleans I thought, but that
Speaker 2: that division makes it feel like they could win eight
Speaker 2: games and miss. And then there's you didn't give us,
Speaker 2: And I agree with you on Seattle as well. I
Speaker 2: like Gino, I like Mike McDonald, but I think that
Speaker 2: division's really tough. Then Arizona and Tampa or the other
Speaker 2: seven and a half's.
Speaker 3: Tampa seven and a half, yeah, i'd give I'd give
Speaker 3: Tampa eight wins. Yeah, And I agree Arizona and Arizona's yeah,
Speaker 3: I'm not I don't know, I'm not comfortable. I'd go
Speaker 3: under on Arizona.
Speaker 2: I just mean, so after those first five, you and
Speaker 2: I actually are in somewhat of agreement on most of
Speaker 2: these all. Right now to the worst, the lowest totals
Speaker 2: or three of the lowest totals in the league as
Speaker 2: we finish our stay aways, Tennessee is six and a half.
Speaker 2: I'm just gonna I'm leaning under. Maybe Will Levis will
Speaker 2: be good, but I don't think so. Carolina and New
Speaker 2: England are both five and a half. I'm leaning under
Speaker 2: for Carolina. Over for New England just because no, I
Speaker 2: like Drake May, I like I mean, I think, I think,
Speaker 2: I mean Bryce Young might be able to fit in
Speaker 2: Drake May's pocket. And so I'm gonna have to pick
Speaker 2: one of these guys with a bad offensive line and
Speaker 2: a young quarterback. I'll take the big one. And then
Speaker 2: we have an announcement to make, because you might be
Speaker 2: hearing the stayaways and being like, oh, you know who
Speaker 2: wasn't on the stay away list? The Jacksonville Jaguars, whose
Speaker 2: number is just eight and a half, and it's the Jews.
Speaker 2: This is only minus one fifteen on the over. So
Speaker 2: I have an important announcement to make. I believe in
Speaker 2: the Jags. I believe in the Prince. However, in reviewing
Speaker 2: last season's gambling show, we had a lot tied up
Speaker 2: in Jacksonville. If the Jacksonville Jaguars had won one more game,
Speaker 2: we would have had a profitable season. Instead, we ended
Speaker 2: up being down seven point two units on the year,
Speaker 2: based purely off the Jags collapse. Because I had them,
Speaker 2: I had the season over, I had them winning the division.
Speaker 2: I had them in a division winner parlay. The other
Speaker 2: thing one, I had a playoff team Parlay. It was
Speaker 2: just so unfathomable to me they wouldn't come through. So
Speaker 2: because of that, Demanse, here's my announcement. I am not
Speaker 2: only not betting the Jags in the preseason win total. Okay,
Speaker 2: they're just they're just a self imposed Jags band, is
Speaker 2: what's happening right here. I am also I am also
Speaker 2: not betting the Jags this season until they go to England.
Speaker 2: I want to have the first kind of the the
Speaker 2: the American part of their schedule is kind of their
Speaker 2: own preseason. Let me see how it's looking, how how
Speaker 2: healthy Trevor is, what this press Taylor offense is, how
Speaker 2: Brian Thomas Jr. And then we'll reconvene on the Jags
Speaker 2: when they when they head to jolly old England Town.
Speaker 2: I believe it's week six, let me check real quick,
Speaker 2: but I can tell you so that means we will
Speaker 2: not be betting the Jags at Miami home against Cleveland,
Speaker 2: at Buffalo, at Houston home against Indy. Oh my gosh, demand.
Speaker 3: Your games that you want to bet them on. Huh.
Speaker 3: I imagine I.
Speaker 2: Don't know who knows. We don't know what the number is,
Speaker 2: so we don't know if I do, but I didn't.
Speaker 2: I had forgotten this. I'm sure I knew it, but
Speaker 2: I had forgotten it. Demon's a week six for the
Speaker 2: Jags on NFL Network in England playing Caleb Willis playing
Speaker 2: Caleb Williams, and.
Speaker 3: The I mean so that the producer, mister Matt, that
Speaker 3: Caleb Williams is probably you know, the guy that you
Speaker 3: expected Trevor and Lawrence to be.
Speaker 2: And well we'll see, probably the guy expect Trevor to be,
Speaker 2: by the way, not that it's that interesting to the audience,
Speaker 2: but do you call Matt mister Matt? Is that like
Speaker 2: a sign of respect?
Speaker 3: Yeah, in the like, I didn't want to be like,
Speaker 3: I don't know, I feel kind of weird of being
Speaker 3: like producer and it's like I know him, you know, No.
Speaker 2: I'm asking when you're off the air, you're like, high Matt.
Speaker 3: Okay, that's what I meant.
Speaker 2: Okay, all right, No, I all right. I understand the
Speaker 2: respect as far as on reference on the air, but
Speaker 2: I thought it was like, hey, mister Matt. I was like,
Speaker 2: oh wow about Matt. Matt becomes a father all of
Speaker 2: a sudden, people are giving him honorrifics. I would have
Speaker 2: never thought it. Okay, all right, Now now to the
Speaker 2: actual bets we will make kind of okay, So there
Speaker 2: are five team totals. I like, all right, They're not
Speaker 2: all over, they're not all you know, the they're mixtures.
Speaker 2: But there are better ways to make the bet that
Speaker 2: I like. Okay, So Dallas is over nine and a
Speaker 2: half is minus one four. I like Dallas to win
Speaker 2: ten games, but there is a better way to bet
Speaker 2: them to win ten games. We'll get to that later
Speaker 2: in the show, Green Bay. This one's gonna be painful
Speaker 2: for Demansey.
Speaker 3: The Strange one.
Speaker 2: Their total. Their total is eight and a half if
Speaker 2: I had to bet, and the juice is minus one
Speaker 2: thirty eight on the under. Hold on, I don't think
Speaker 2: the juice is minus one thirty eight on the under.
Speaker 3: There.
Speaker 2: I have to check that I might have written that
Speaker 2: down wrong real quick. I'm just gonna look. I have
Speaker 2: it open right here, Green Bay. I'm sorry. It is
Speaker 2: minus no, no, no, it is minus one thirty eight.
Speaker 2: But I did write it down wrong. It's under nine
Speaker 2: and a half. I knew that had to be wrong.
Speaker 2: I was like, They're total is not it's you and
Speaker 2: it's juice to the under under nine. I like the
Speaker 2: Green Bay under nine and a half, not under eight
Speaker 2: and a half, pardon me, and it's juice to the under. However,
Speaker 2: there is a better way to bet that, which we
Speaker 2: will discuss later. Miami their total for the season is
Speaker 2: also nine and a half, and it is I like
Speaker 2: the under on that. I jotted some of these wrong
Speaker 2: down wrong, so I'm fixing it. It's plus one ten
Speaker 2: on the under, but there is a better way to
Speaker 2: do that one as well. Cincinnati their total is ten
Speaker 2: and a half. I like the over, there's a better
Speaker 2: way to bet that. And Washington their total is six
Speaker 2: and a half. I like the over. There's a better
Speaker 2: way to bet that. So to be clear, Dallas at
Speaker 2: nine and a half, Cincinnati at ten and a half,
Speaker 2: Washington at six and a half. I like all theoretically,
Speaker 2: I like all those overs, but there's a smarter way
Speaker 2: to make those bets. And Green Bay and Miami I
Speaker 2: like the under nine and a half, but there's a
Speaker 2: smarter way to make those bets. Okay, So that is
Speaker 2: the preamble to our actual wagers. We've been on for
Speaker 2: a half hour. We haven't given out a single bet
Speaker 2: that we're actually making. But now everything else you hear
Speaker 2: are going to be actual bets that we are making.
Speaker 2: So demons, now you have the ignominious task of recapping
Speaker 2: how we did last season. So go ahead and start there.
Speaker 3: Yeah, so last year you bet? I think you're overshonographic, Yes,
Speaker 3: Chicago under seven and a half, that was a hit. Win, Dallas,
Speaker 3: Dallas over ten and a half, that was a winner. Winner,
Speaker 3: Seattle over eight and a half. Winner, Philly, what they
Speaker 3: were ten and one, but skin of my teeth, but
Speaker 3: that was a winner. Thank you Jalen and the Philly
Speaker 3: and the defense. Go ahead, Philly and you have under
Speaker 3: eleven and a half. That was a winner. And so
Speaker 3: your your losers? Who got Kansas City over eleven and
Speaker 3: a half? Jack I mean that was.
Speaker 2: Can I just say something about that real quick? The
Speaker 2: Chiefs had the worst season possibly imaginable, and they still
Speaker 2: won eleven games and then won the Super Bowl. So
Speaker 2: I don't feel badly about that. Now. The Jags won.
Speaker 2: That one hurts because I because I could have gotten them.
Speaker 2: I would have lost anyway. I guess it was smart
Speaker 2: that I did this.
Speaker 3: Yeah, Jackson swel was nine and a half.
Speaker 2: Their total was nine and a half, and I instead,
Speaker 2: I bet an alternate line to ten and a half
Speaker 2: to get plus money. I would have lost both of them.
Speaker 3: Go ahead, Jacksonville half. New England over seven and a
Speaker 3: half was a loss, Sam.
Speaker 2: Francis, I mean that was New England over seven and
Speaker 2: a half was a travesty. I don't know what came
Speaker 2: over me. I don't know why I thought it was
Speaker 2: a good bet. I hate. I mean, I was obviously
Speaker 2: wrong about yeah, and so listen. I don't feel badly
Speaker 2: about the Chiefs. And with the Chiefs bet winning, I
Speaker 2: would have been five and three, said I was four
Speaker 2: and four. Okay, So here we go. Here we go, demons.
Speaker 2: We have four overs, we have four unders. We are
Speaker 2: starting with the overs. The first one is an auto
Speaker 2: must fire. I do not care that they actually didn't
Speaker 2: for the first time in the Andy Reid or it
Speaker 2: didn't hit their over last year, the Chiefs over eleven
Speaker 2: and a half. The juice is only minus one twelve.
Speaker 2: They had the worst season imaginable last year, and they
Speaker 2: won eleven games. They're going to win thirteen or fourteen
Speaker 2: games this year. We are listen, twenty to zero. I'm
Speaker 2: not gonna put out there because that was you know
Speaker 2: that one bit me a bit. So the Chiefs are
Speaker 2: over eleven and a half. The next over, I have
Speaker 2: the Bears over eight and a half. The juice on
Speaker 2: this is strong. It's minus one sixty. Now the producers
Speaker 2: remind me that Nick, you were so anti betting on
Speaker 2: the the Vikings at minus won seventy, but you're okay
Speaker 2: with the Bears at minus won sixty. Well, first of all,
Speaker 2: that ten cents matters. Second of all, I think that
Speaker 2: the Vikings they have more paths. The Vikings do to
Speaker 2: finding eight wins than the Bears due to not winning
Speaker 2: nine games. The Bears are gonna win eleven games and
Speaker 2: so maybe twelve games. So I like the Bears over
Speaker 2: eight and a half. More on the Bears later the
Speaker 2: Rams over eight and a half at minus one fifty two. Now, again,
Speaker 2: these last two were laying bit heavy juice. Man, I
Speaker 2: understand that I aining the Rams are gonna be awesome.
Speaker 2: I aining the Rams are I think this could be
Speaker 2: his final excellent year. Whatever Cooper Cup has left before,
Speaker 2: you know, his body kind of gives out on him. Sadly,
Speaker 2: we're gonna see Pookah's only moving up. I love McVeigh
Speaker 2: I love the Rams. And then lastly, this one will
Speaker 2: surprise people all. Take Denver over five and a half
Speaker 2: at minus one thirty. Denver last year won nine games,
Speaker 2: within my opinion bad quarterback play. I think that bow
Speaker 2: Knicks is my number one pick of young quarterback who
Speaker 2: will trick or I'm sorry, Denver won eight games last year.
Speaker 2: Pardon me, young quarterback who will trick box score watchers
Speaker 2: meaning people are like, oh, bow Knicks further ahead of
Speaker 2: schedule than we thought, when in reality, what we're gonna
Speaker 2: see is Sean Payton's gonna give him a training wheels offense,
Speaker 2: and because he's you're a demonse, he's going to come in.
Speaker 2: It's gonna be very mac Jones rookie year ish. It's like, hey,
Speaker 2: look at his numbers, look at the winds, but it's
Speaker 2: like that's actually his ceiling as a player. But I
Speaker 2: think Denver's I just don't think Sean Payton's going to
Speaker 2: go five and twelve. And so the four overs that
Speaker 2: I have the Chiefs over eleven and a half minus
Speaker 2: one twelve, the Bears over eight and a half minus
Speaker 2: one sixty, the Rams over eight and a half minus
Speaker 2: one fifty two, the Broncos over five and a half
Speaker 2: minus one twenty eight demonse your thoughts on those four overs?
Speaker 3: Love the Chiefs. I hope that the Chicago thing doesn't
Speaker 3: become a you know, bring you into the wilderness like
Speaker 3: Jacksonville did. But obviously this is a different situation, but
Speaker 3: at the same time it's a little similar. But so
Speaker 3: that one eight and a half I trust, but I
Speaker 3: feel like it might lead you into some other things.
Speaker 3: The Rams I like, Denver, I like a lot. I
Speaker 3: like all those except for Chicago. I'm just like, you know,
Speaker 3: worried about.
Speaker 2: You're worried about. All right, Well, I'm glad you like those,
Speaker 2: because I don't think you're gonna love my unders four unders.
Speaker 2: The first one I'm giving you is what a lot
Speaker 2: of you're gonna see. My analysis and picks is based
Speaker 2: on which is I think Philadelphia is cartoonishly overvalued by
Speaker 2: Vegas right now. Last year they had a bottom five
Speaker 2: defense all season, They had a historically bad end of
Speaker 2: season collapse. They lost the single best player on their
Speaker 2: entire team to retirement, and the guy who calls out
Speaker 2: coverages or protections pardon me in Jason Kelsey, the head
Speaker 2: coach in the quarterback don't get along. And the head
Speaker 2: coach now has come out evidently and said, hey, you
Speaker 2: know all that taunting and history onic bulls I was
Speaker 2: doing on the sidelines that smart people like Nick Wright
Speaker 2: were saying for years, That's not how I head coach acts.
Speaker 2: He didn't say that part, but he should have. Well,
Speaker 2: my owner came to me and told me to stop it.
Speaker 2: That's what happened. That thing came out yesterday. Alway, He's like, yeah,
Speaker 2: I'm gonna chill out. He's gonna chill out because the
Speaker 2: owner was like, hey, man, quit acting like a clown
Speaker 2: on the sideline. That team is not gonna win eleven games.
Speaker 3: Did he have to? Sorry?
Speaker 2: No, So I want to make sure that I so
Speaker 2: I'll take Philly under the ten and a half. And
Speaker 2: since we spent a moment on it, I do want
Speaker 2: to make sure I'm telling you that Nick Sirianni story.
Speaker 3: Uh uh almost its like he didn't have to.
Speaker 2: I'm gonna read you. Uh let me see where where
Speaker 2: God dogged. It's a lot.
Speaker 3: I think vote.
Speaker 2: Go ahead to Mamsey.
Speaker 3: I think Philly's got a better chance of winning the
Speaker 3: division than the Cowboys, though I don't know I just
Speaker 3: I don't feel like the Cowboys are gonna do it
Speaker 3: this year.
Speaker 2: Well, so I understand that. I'm just telling you. So
Speaker 2: if you want to Nick sirianni uh he discussed, you
Speaker 2: can go to Pro Football Talk for the full story.
Speaker 2: But yeah, I mean, he has long quotes about how
Speaker 2: he needed to be better in all of this stuff.
Speaker 2: But regardless, I just don't think that. I just think
Speaker 2: they're wildly overvalued. Another team that I think is wildly overvalued,
Speaker 2: and I'm getting plus money on the under here the
Speaker 2: New York Jets under nine and a half plus one
Speaker 2: thirty two. They have a bad coach, an awful offensive coordinator,
Speaker 2: and given their conference, a below average quarterback. That's just
Speaker 2: what they have. And so you can be like below
Speaker 2: average quarterback, Yeah, Mahomes, Burrow, Allen Lamar, CJ Herbert Trevor.
Speaker 2: That's seven. It's only sixteen teams. Some people throw two
Speaker 2: in there, and so I do not believe that the
Speaker 2: New York Jets are going to win double digit games.
Speaker 2: So I will take the under and I will continue
Speaker 2: fading the Jets as I have for most of my life,
Speaker 2: and it's been one of my more profitable decisions I
Speaker 2: also do not think the Las Vegas Raiders are winning
Speaker 2: seven games Raiders under six and a half plus one sixteen.
Speaker 3: Did you say that was gonna be a sneaky, feisty.
Speaker 2: Team, she said, I know, I said the Broncos. No.
Speaker 3: No, I said, no, I'm thinking of a whole not
Speaker 3: even today. I thought this is like another pod you
Speaker 3: said like the Raiders were like a sneaky Okay.
Speaker 2: No, that wouldn't have been me. I I'm trying to
Speaker 2: think of what team I might have said that about
Speaker 2: that that would fit the description. Not the Raiders. I
Speaker 2: maybe the I'm not sure who it would have been,
Speaker 2: but not the rattle of them.
Speaker 3: And then you added like, yeah, yeadle, I thought about but.
Speaker 2: But regardless, not the Raiders, either O'Connell or Gardner minshew.
Speaker 2: And as a general rule of thumb, listen, maybe he'll
Speaker 2: be good, but just because the players love D'Antonio Pierce
Speaker 2: doesn't mean he was your best option at UH at
Speaker 2: head coach. And if I if I need a little
Speaker 2: extra push to one side or another, your quarterback and
Speaker 2: the only and your star defensive player doing the old
Speaker 2: double thumbs up with old forty five get out of
Speaker 2: here man, the the I don't think demons gets the
Speaker 2: reference that it doesn't matter. The forty five is the
Speaker 2: number President Trump was. That picture was annoying. The team stinks.
Speaker 2: They've been embarrassing forever, the the and so I just
Speaker 2: the that's actually not my analysis of the Raiders, but
Speaker 2: that also reconfirmed this is an unseerious team.
Speaker 3: Uh. And the.
Speaker 2: Patrick Mahomes thing they have, No, I don't think they're
Speaker 2: gonna have a I think they the home field is
Speaker 2: gonna be tough because so many people are gonna travel
Speaker 2: to Vegas. Uh for gonna travel to Vegas, pardon me
Speaker 2: for bachelor parties and vacation and gambling. And they're gonna
Speaker 2: do it. Win their teams in town. Also sneaky. They
Speaker 2: have a second place schedule because they ended up winning
Speaker 2: eight games last year. Yeah, because the Chargers won five.
Speaker 2: They both won eight. Yeah, so that's a tough one.
Speaker 2: So I'll take under six and a half for the Raiders,
Speaker 2: and then the juice is minus one forty So I
Speaker 2: don't love it. But the Giants might be the worst
Speaker 2: team in the league. The Giants is gonna under six
Speaker 2: and a half. It's just an under. Daniel Jones is
Speaker 2: gonna get Ben Strulock's gonna play. He's a Kansas City kid.
Speaker 2: I'd like him to do well. He won't, And it's
Speaker 2: just it's just an under. So my four unders are
Speaker 2: Philly ten and a half, the Giants nine and a half,
Speaker 2: the Raiders six and a half. I'm sorry, the Jets
Speaker 2: nine and a half, the Giants six and a half,
Speaker 2: and the Raiders six and a half. I just realized, gosh,
Speaker 2: darn it, this is not a great strategy for me.
Speaker 3: From a uh geographically standpoint.
Speaker 2: Yeah, alfe popularity thing, and that the three teams closest
Speaker 2: to where I live, Philly, the Jets and the Giants,
Speaker 2: I'm just under across the board. Meanwhile, far off lands
Speaker 2: of Los Angeles, Denver, Kansas City, and Chicago, I'm high
Speaker 2: on their teams. And I mean, that's unbelievable. And now
Speaker 2: I look at me teams, well, right, And that's what
Speaker 2: I was gonna say. The three teams in the city
Speaker 2: closest to me, in the city's closest to me, I'm
Speaker 2: on the under and the one team in the city
Speaker 2: I most enjoy visiting in Vegas and we'll definitely visit
Speaker 2: during the season. I'm on the under, all right. So
Speaker 2: there's our eight picks for the team totals Chiefs, Bears, Rams,
Speaker 2: Broncos over, Philly Jets, Giants, Raiders. Under. We give you
Speaker 2: some division winners, which last year was the death of
Speaker 2: our bank role, some make miss playoffs, and of course
Speaker 2: our Super Bowl exacta. That's all next What's Right? Welcome
Speaker 2: back in What's Right with Nick Wright and our annual
Speaker 2: football gambling show. But first, let me tell you guys
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Speaker 2: So we just did our team win totals. Now we
Speaker 2: have to do our division winners, which is where really
Speaker 2: last year went to die. We were because of the
Speaker 2: because of the Viig and the juice plus minus in
Speaker 2: win totals. Even though we were four and four. We
Speaker 2: actually made a little money on our team win total
Speaker 2: bets last year because of the way the Viig fell.
Speaker 2: As you're about to see on the division winner bets,
Speaker 2: we definitively obviously clearly did not win money because we
Speaker 2: missed them all. So let me say something here that
Speaker 2: I think is frustrating. If I may, okay, Miami, So
Speaker 2: I had Miami, Pittsburgh, Green Bay, Atlanta, Seattle all to
Speaker 2: win their divisions. None were favorites. With the logic being
Speaker 2: hit one of them and you're basically good, Hit two
Speaker 2: of them and you win a lot of money.
Speaker 3: It is.
Speaker 2: Maddening, absolutely maddening. Put that back on the screen, if
Speaker 2: we can please that Miami, Pittsburgh and Green Bay all
Speaker 2: made the playoffs when not expected to, and I so
Speaker 2: I clearly believed in them more than that Vegas did.
Speaker 2: Initially they were underdogs to make the playoffs, all of them.
Speaker 2: Green Bay a huge underdog to make the playoffs, people
Speaker 2: though it was a rebuilding year. Pittsburgh big underdog to
Speaker 2: make the playoffs, Miami tiny underdog me the playoffs last year.
Speaker 2: I believed in all of them. They all made the
Speaker 2: playoffs and none won the division. Miami had to full
Speaker 2: blown collapse not to win the division, just a total
Speaker 2: absolute collapse. And then my other bets were a Jacksonville
Speaker 2: Kansas City parlay, which Jacksonville killed me on and that
Speaker 2: was a two unit bet. And then, like I said,
Speaker 2: the Pittsburgh Miami Green Bay parlay which was ninety to one,
Speaker 2: and that was a quarter unit bet. So you might say, Nick,
Speaker 2: so did you learn your lesson or you're not gonna
Speaker 2: bet divisions this year? And the answer to that is no.
Speaker 2: The lesson was be sharper, It's not oh, I can't
Speaker 2: bet that category of bets. And here is where you
Speaker 2: will see your first version of Remember earlier when I
Speaker 2: said there's a better way to make that bet you're
Speaker 2: gonna see that in a few places here. So let's demands.
Speaker 2: Let's get going. Here is the first one division winner
Speaker 2: that I'm betting the Bears plus three forty the Bears
Speaker 2: plus three forty to win the NFC North. Now I
Speaker 2: also am on them. That's so the Bears they could
Speaker 2: bite me because I'm on them on their over and
Speaker 2: I'm on them to win the NFC North. Don't care.
Speaker 2: It's plus three forty the Rams at plus three thirty
Speaker 2: to win the NFC West. This is one of my
Speaker 2: more one of my favorite bets, because I think that
Speaker 2: Niners are not going to be quite as dominants people think.
Speaker 2: I think the Rams can be excellent again. So this
Speaker 2: is kind of doubling down to a degree on having
Speaker 2: the over on those two teams, but with great odds
Speaker 2: attached to it, right, And then Cincinnati at plus one
Speaker 2: sixty five to win their division. You hate this one,
Speaker 2: I'm certain of it. But that's ridiculous.
Speaker 3: I mean, the Bengals winning the division over the Ravens.
Speaker 3: Over the Ravens after the Ravens just easily won the
Speaker 3: division last year. I just don't think was injured all
Speaker 3: jo Joe Burrows injured all year. The year before, he's
Speaker 3: still coming off of an injury. Jamar Chase still got
Speaker 3: his contract woes. I think there's some stuff going on
Speaker 3: in the locker room the front office. I don't think
Speaker 3: they're going the division.
Speaker 2: That's fair, listen, that's fair. What I so this is
Speaker 2: if you remember when I said the Bengals I liked
Speaker 2: there over, but there was a better way to bet
Speaker 2: it at Instead of taking the Bengals over ten and
Speaker 2: a half at minus one twenty, why don't I take
Speaker 2: the Bengals to win the division at plus one sixty
Speaker 2: five if I believe that it's not gonna take twelve
Speaker 2: thirteen wins to win the division, because I don't think
Speaker 2: Baltimore is gonna be quite as good as de Monte
Speaker 2: do as. We just disagree there, and if Lamar were
Speaker 2: to get dinged, the Bengals could win the division with
Speaker 2: ten wins. And that's a scenario where you win the
Speaker 2: division winner bet but would have lost the team total
Speaker 2: bet of ten and a half. It's a similar situation
Speaker 2: for me with the next one, which is Dubas. So
Speaker 2: Dallas to win the division is plus one seventy five.
Speaker 2: Dallas to win ten games is minus one forty five
Speaker 2: ten or more games because their totals nine and a half.
Speaker 2: I think that you could win the NFC East with
Speaker 2: ten wins. I think you would win it with eleven wins.
Speaker 2: So if I think Dallas is gonna hit double digit
Speaker 2: wins and no one else in that division is, instead
Speaker 2: of laying minus one forty four, I'll get plus one
Speaker 2: seventy five on them to win the division, and then
Speaker 2: a flyers the one flyer Washington to win that same
Speaker 2: division at eleven to one. Okay, So here's the logic
Speaker 2: on this. It's simply saying Philly's not gonna be good.
Speaker 2: I'm basically putting a half unit at plus one seventy
Speaker 2: five and a half unit at eleven to one, and
Speaker 2: basically pretending the Giants don't exist because they might as
Speaker 2: well not, and saying somebody's got to win that division.
Speaker 2: It's not gonna be the Giants and Philly's not gonna
Speaker 2: be good, and the Wash every year, I don't know
Speaker 2: who it's going to be, but every year, Demons, there's
Speaker 2: a shocker, and I don't have it pegged. Last year
Speaker 2: was Houston shocker? Legit, like what? And so I don't
Speaker 2: know who it's going to be. But when we say shocker,
Speaker 2: shocker is not the Bengals go from worse to first.
Speaker 2: Shocker is one of the following teams New England, Tennessee,
Speaker 2: the Broncos, the Commanders, the Panthers. That might be the
Speaker 2: full list, Like one of those level teams is in
Speaker 2: the mix for the postseason. And I'll just take you know,
Speaker 2: I'll take a small flyer on Washington for that reason.
Speaker 2: And then this is maybe demands. You don't like it,
Speaker 2: that's fine. This is my second favorite bet on the
Speaker 2: sheet because it's almost ten to one. It is a
Speaker 2: Chiefs Bills Bengals division winner parlay at plus nine seventy five.
Speaker 2: I the So I don't I think the Chiefs obvious.
Speaker 2: I think the Bills are still the best team in
Speaker 2: the AFC East, and Cincinnati I think is gonna be excellent,
Speaker 2: and I think Baltimore Steven's gonna take a step back.
Speaker 2: So again, you don't love these, that's fine.
Speaker 3: It's half units, half units.
Speaker 2: That is the other thing I learned from last year.
Speaker 2: We'll go half unit on these divisional wagers. They're plus money, big,
Speaker 2: you know, big plus money odds so instead of it.
Speaker 2: Last year we had five one unit bets, a two
Speaker 2: unit bet, and a quarter unit bet, so we had
Speaker 2: seven and a units on our division winner bets. This
Speaker 2: year one, two, three, four, five, six, we have six
Speaker 2: half unit bets, so we've taken sixty percent of our
Speaker 2: exposure away. Okay, what's our next category.
Speaker 3: Our next category is making making or missing the playoffs.
Speaker 3: So last year you bet New York Jets to miss
Speaker 3: the playoffs that obviously cashed, and then you put you
Speaker 3: had Kansas City, had Dallas. Oh yeah, yeah, you had
Speaker 3: Kansas City, Dallas and Jacksonville parlayed to make the playoffs
Speaker 3: that didn't hit Cleveland, the Jets in Detroit to miss
Speaker 3: that one didn't hit.
Speaker 2: Here's so this is the other spot. This is the
Speaker 2: other spot where the Jags ruined me. So last year,
Speaker 2: like you said, I put two units on the Jets
Speaker 2: to miss it was one of the best bets we
Speaker 2: made all year. I had, and I don't know if
Speaker 2: we have the graphic to show it. I had at
Speaker 2: good odds the Chiefs, Dallas and Jacksonville to make. The
Speaker 2: Chiefs clinched eurly, the Cowboys clinched eurly. The Jags started
Speaker 2: eight and three and then fell apart, so that was
Speaker 2: plus one sixty. That was a two unit bet. So
Speaker 2: that was that was a painful one. That's where I'm saying,
Speaker 2: he's again the Jags, jackson We had them divisions. Jacksonville
Speaker 2: really killed me. And then Cleveland, New York and Detroit
Speaker 2: to miss. That was a quarter unit bet at plus one.
Speaker 2: At plus seven fifty five, that's a bad bet because
Speaker 2: Cleveland and Detroit made it, so that was just a
Speaker 2: bad bet. But the Jacksonville one killed me. Uh all right,
Speaker 2: So I have demons, three teams that I'm straight up
Speaker 2: betting to miss, and then I have some parlays. Okay,
Speaker 2: so straight up to miss the Jets for reasons previously
Speaker 2: discussed their plus one thirty eight the Philadelphia if you
Speaker 2: remember earlier, let me find it. Oh no, Philadelphia, as
Speaker 2: previously discussed, I'm fading them all year plus two thirty
Speaker 2: five to miss. And if you remember earlier, I said
Speaker 2: for Miami there was a better way to bet them
Speaker 2: instead of betting under nine and a half. I'm going
Speaker 2: to bet them to miss the playoffs, and that's you know,
Speaker 2: that's where I'm gonna get my value from them. So
Speaker 2: I'm going to go under, uh my, or I'm gonna
Speaker 2: go Miami at plus one twenty eight to miss the playoffs.
Speaker 2: That's where I'm gonna get thee.
Speaker 3: Here is just it's a cheat code. It's awesome, like
Speaker 3: they both exist and here's the problem.
Speaker 2: So, but here's the reason why. It's because sometimes you
Speaker 2: value cut yourself. So sometimes the under would have hit,
Speaker 2: but they make the playoffs. Like it's the opposite of
Speaker 2: what you would think you under. Say what I mean,
Speaker 2: So a team whose total is under nine and a
Speaker 2: half at minus one point fifteen, you bet them to
Speaker 2: miss the playoffs at plus one twenty they go nine
Speaker 2: to eight and make the playoffs, you know what I mean.
Speaker 2: So that's the so the it it. You have to
Speaker 2: have kind of a good idea of what it's gonna
Speaker 2: take to make the postseason all of that. But I
Speaker 2: do think sometimes you can find some value in those spots.
Speaker 2: So those are the only three, uh those are the
Speaker 2: only three individual make miss playoff bets. I'm making the
Speaker 2: jets of plus one thirty eight to miss Philliot plus
Speaker 2: two thirty five to miss Miami at plus one twenty
Speaker 2: eight to miss. By the way, you parlay. All, I'm sorry,
Speaker 2: that's a different one, so I'll wait on that one
Speaker 2: for a moment. The yeah, that's right, so I'll get
Speaker 2: to that in a moment. Now, this right here, Demanse,
Speaker 2: this parlay I'm about to give out is my favorite
Speaker 2: bet on the sheet. I know it says this is
Speaker 2: a two unit bet. I'm adjusting that in real time.
Speaker 2: This is going to be a three unit bet. Okay,
Speaker 2: the following four teams to miss the postseason, the Giants,
Speaker 2: the Raiders, the Steelers, the Saints. Those four teams to
Speaker 2: miss the playoffs, you get plus two hundred. Those four teams,
Speaker 2: not a single one of them is gonna get to
Speaker 2: nine wins. The only one that could is Pittsburgh because
Speaker 2: of the Tomlin voodoo, and nine won't get you to
Speaker 2: the playoffs. In the AFC, in that division, it's plus
Speaker 2: two hundred. It's three units. We're locking it in now,
Speaker 2: go ahead, demant s go No, that that.
Speaker 3: Was very fair with the With the Pittsburgh I was,
Speaker 3: I was, I was a little worried, But yeah, they
Speaker 3: are in a division where that amount of yeah, one
Speaker 3: hundred percent. No, I like that a lot. I see
Speaker 3: why you put three units on it all.
Speaker 2: Right, So now a different parlay to make the playoffs.
Speaker 2: This is much harder because it's longer odds. The Chiefs
Speaker 2: free money, the Bills should do it. And then the
Speaker 2: two teams I'm riding in the NFC, the Rams and
Speaker 2: the Bears. That's seven to one. That's a half unit bet.
Speaker 2: Two AFC teams, two NFC teams seven to one, a
Speaker 2: half unit bet. And then a flyer of three teams
Speaker 2: everyone's high on but me that Demons is just gonna
Speaker 2: hate this bet. But that's okay. Green Bay, the Jets,
Speaker 2: and the Eagles all to miss. It's plus seventeen twenty
Speaker 2: and that is a quarter unit bet. So let's just
Speaker 2: look at this. I'm going to very quickly. I should
Speaker 2: have done this before. I'm gonna do this in real time.
Speaker 2: I apologize for doing math on the air. And we're
Speaker 2: gonna figure out how many units that I have laid
Speaker 2: out before we get to our Super Bowl EXACTA on
Speaker 2: my overs, I'm just doing the juice in my head.
Speaker 2: One point one plus one point six, we're at two
Speaker 2: point seven plus one point five, we're at four point
Speaker 2: two plus one point three wor at five point five
Speaker 2: plus one plus one plus one word eight point five
Speaker 2: plus Oh, that's perfect plus one point five. All right.
Speaker 2: We risked ten units on our team totals on our
Speaker 2: division winners. We already told you six half unit bets,
Speaker 2: so we're at thirteen. On our miss the playoff bets.
Speaker 2: Those Jets, Eagles, Dolphins or three were at sixteen. We
Speaker 2: have a three unit bet on a parlay. So now
Speaker 2: we're at nineteen. We have a make the playoffs bet
Speaker 2: for a half unit. We're at nineteen and a half.
Speaker 2: We have a quarter unit bet there. We're at nineteen
Speaker 2: point seventy five. That's perfect. So we have basically twenty
Speaker 2: units out in the ether leading into our favorite bet
Speaker 2: of the year, our Super Bowl EXACTA. These are, on
Speaker 2: general principle, one unit bets every year. We're not going
Speaker 2: small on these because if we can't go small, because
Speaker 2: then when you finally do hit it, you're gonna be sick.
Speaker 2: Demand's a last year. What was it? We can show
Speaker 2: the audience, even though they already know, I'm sure.
Speaker 3: You bet Kansas City to versus Dallas and Kansas City
Speaker 3: to defeat Dallas. That was that. Kansasity Versusdallas is that
Speaker 3: was plus three thousand and fifty and see defeating Dallas
Speaker 3: is at plus five thousand, and that did not cash.
Speaker 2: But famously, the year before we had Kansas City versus
Speaker 2: the Niners at fifty to one. In Kansas City beat
Speaker 2: the Niners at eighty five to one. And then brock Party.
Speaker 2: You know what I mean, the Curse of brock Party.
Speaker 2: He gets his elbow blown up, the Eagles run away
Speaker 2: with it. We don't get to see it this year.
Speaker 2: Everybody knows what it is. It's the Chiefs Bears and
Speaker 2: the Chiefs beating the Bears. Those are a nice tidy
Speaker 2: plus six thousand, six hundred and fifty and plus ninety
Speaker 2: five hundred, those two things. So I'm just worded. I'm
Speaker 2: just telling you.
Speaker 3: Just what the math is.
Speaker 2: You know, we're getting plus sixty six hundred and plus
Speaker 2: ninety five hundred. What's up to one?
Speaker 3: Say? Yeah, I feel like this almost like negated all
Speaker 3: the good picks you just gave out, like for this, Oh,
Speaker 3: you don't believe in Cale Williams. I don't believe that
Speaker 3: the Chicago Bears are going to make the Super Bowl.
Speaker 3: And Cale Williams first year, I get this as one
Speaker 3: of the more whimsical picks, and you can be a
Speaker 3: little bit more, you know, hyperbolic, but uh yeah, I
Speaker 3: mean it's hey man, so plus plus.
Speaker 2: So Daniel just wrote in, isn't putting the Chiefs versus
Speaker 2: the Bears as a bet itself a hedge that the
Speaker 2: Chiefs could lose in the actual Super Bowl. He's saying,
Speaker 2: why would I not just put two units on the
Speaker 2: plus ninety five hundred as opposed to one unit on
Speaker 2: the matchup and one unit on that? And I understand that.
Speaker 2: I think this is one of the many times Daniel
Speaker 2: thinks he is he's like got him. Here's why, Daniel,
Speaker 2: my dear friend. Let me let me put it to
Speaker 2: you in Denver Nuggets terms. Okay, let's say you think
Speaker 2: that the Nuggets are gonna win the championship this year
Speaker 2: and that the Nuggets are gonna play Boston in the finals. Okay,
Speaker 2: you think that that's what it's gonna be. You could
Speaker 2: just bet Denver over Boston for however much you want,
Speaker 2: or you could put a unit on each right now
Speaker 2: at these odds, and then what you can do is
Speaker 2: when the first one comes in, you can make a
Speaker 2: six hundred unit bet or whatever you want on the
Speaker 2: actual game, on the series. So I think the opportunity
Speaker 2: to have an extra sixty six, five hundred dollars in
Speaker 2: my pocket headed into the Super Bowl to then fires
Speaker 2: some of that on the actual game, it has a
Speaker 2: real value to me. So don't listen here. Daniel's my
Speaker 2: guy and I love But there aren't many things that
Speaker 2: There aren't many things that will offend me. Accusing me
Speaker 2: of trying to hedge a bet will offend me. Listen
Speaker 2: as we months as we once upon a time almost
Speaker 2: made the T shirt that said it. I don't even
Speaker 2: remember exactly what the T shirt said, but it was
Speaker 2: something along lines of I'm not hedging any bets. I'm
Speaker 2: a goddamn gambler. We're not hedging bets here. That came
Speaker 2: up the first time when the Chiefs Niners thing was happening.
Speaker 2: This is not a hedge. This is an opportunity to
Speaker 2: have more liquid economy. Oh, we have the T shirt
Speaker 2: right there. I'm seeing it. Hold on, let me see it.
Speaker 2: Can you guys put that screen full? I have it small,
Speaker 2: let me see it. Hold on. Hedging is for cowards
Speaker 2: and stock traders. I'm a gambler. We still need you
Speaker 2: know one day we'll print those up. I mean, you
Speaker 2: guys did print them up, but I haven't figured out
Speaker 2: how to do a merch store, which is very ironic
Speaker 2: considering the fact that I literally do this show from
Speaker 2: a clothing store. I'm looking around. I'm like, I guess
Speaker 2: I literally am in a merch store. I'm just thinking
Speaker 2: about it online. All right, We answered some listener questions
Speaker 2: and potentially do an F one minute next What's Right?
Speaker 2: All right, welcome back in What's Right with Nick Wright
Speaker 2: episode two fifty seven or Gambling Show? Uh Demanse's now
Speaker 2: had you know he's time or he hasn't yet a time.
Speaker 2: But to absorb all this wisdom of my thoughts, picks
Speaker 2: and whatever. On Thursday show, demonse, you will do your
Speaker 2: five favorite season long bets. They can be division winners,
Speaker 2: they can be make miss playoffs, they can be team
Speaker 2: win anything. Any the world is your oysters. They would
Speaker 2: say on that they could be a super Bowl anything
Speaker 2: you want, but it will We'll keep it to five
Speaker 2: for simplicity's sake, So that'll be Thursday. On Thursday, I bet.
Speaker 3: On individual players like season like this person.
Speaker 2: They do those Those are very typically square markets and
Speaker 2: if you're going to bet on that, the only chance
Speaker 2: you really have is to have like seven or eight
Speaker 2: gambling apps and shop the lines, like because those individual
Speaker 2: player markets will vary wildly, you know what I mean.
Speaker 2: So it's like you will, Garrett Wilson, keep it yeah
Speaker 2: at one on some but just just so the audience knows.
Speaker 2: In some places, like if you're gonna do are we
Speaker 2: still there? We've been rolling so good then I started
Speaker 2: moving around the In some places, if you're gonna do that,
Speaker 2: you really gotta shop it because it could be the
Speaker 2: like I'll try to think of an example, but it
Speaker 2: can some places will have Again, I'm just creating one
Speaker 2: out of thin air, Garrett Wilson. Have a thousand yards
Speaker 2: that might be minus one twenty on one website and
Speaker 2: plus two hundred on another. Like there's just so much variance.
Speaker 2: But all right, before we get to the listener questions,
Speaker 2: Before we get to the listener questions, though it has
Speaker 2: been a while, I'll be totally honest to Monsey. I
Speaker 2: sent your cousin Sierra. Not passive aggressive, but a little
Speaker 2: bit of a Hey, spend like two weeks and I
Speaker 2: haven't got enough one minute. I don't know, like, hey,
Speaker 2: everything good, Like basically like, why are you not sent
Speaker 2: me one? And she wrote me back, She's like, they're
Speaker 2: in their off season, Like, oh damn, I guess she
Speaker 2: was like she was like, they've been on the their
Speaker 2: summer break is what she called it. I was like,
Speaker 2: they get a summer break, and so uh and.
Speaker 3: And and.
Speaker 2: The F one minute with Sierra is back. So here's
Speaker 2: what we missed, and here's what's going on for the
Speaker 2: second half of the season.
Speaker 4: F one is back in town. It's officially the second
Speaker 4: half of the season. You know, summer break was cool
Speaker 4: that the teams got to visit their families, go on
Speaker 4: a yacht, swim, rock climb read. I don't know, but
Speaker 4: you know, the more important things in their life. The
Speaker 4: most important thing I should say is the racing career, obviously,
Speaker 4: right obviously, And before I mentioned the results of the
Speaker 4: Dutch Grand Prix that just happened last weekend, I want
Speaker 4: to cover two things that have been released since the
Speaker 4: last time we've spoken. So number one, Carlos Science has
Speaker 4: officially signed with Williams for five and beyond. Now, this
Speaker 4: is important and I'm mentioning this because Lewis Hamilton has
Speaker 4: ultimately replaced him in Ferrari. So he's with Ferrari now.
Speaker 4: But next year they've chose Lewis Hamilton over him, and
Speaker 4: they kicked him to the side and said find a
Speaker 4: home basically. But he has found a home. His new
Speaker 4: home is with Williams for twenty two five and beyond,
Speaker 4: and his new partner is going to be Alex Alban.
Speaker 4: But I do want to mention as a side note
Speaker 4: very quickly. I just mentioned the fact that Carlos was
Speaker 4: basically kicked to the curb and was forced to find
Speaker 4: a new seat. But in this situation, he is also
Speaker 4: kicking somebody else out and this person is Locan sergeant,
Speaker 4: and he's the only American on the grid. Now, this
Speaker 4: is a European sport, so think of this kind of
Speaker 4: like the Olympics, Right, I'm cheering for the American because
Speaker 4: I'm American. I want to see the American excel you know, USA,
Speaker 4: you know, show him, you know America whatever. But the
Speaker 4: thing is, he kind of sucks. He has zero points,
Speaker 4: so it's kind of I mean, I'm sad to see
Speaker 4: him go because he's the out of twenty, he's the
Speaker 4: only American one.
Speaker 2: But like ah, he's no good.
Speaker 4: But anyways, that's beside the point. Second thing. Jack Dewan
Speaker 4: is also going to be on the grid for twenty
Speaker 4: twenty five. He was a reserve driver for the Alping team,
Speaker 4: but I guess he kind of got promoted. He got
Speaker 4: promoted to the big top dog seat, the real F
Speaker 4: one seat. Anyways, the Dutch Grand Prix F one is back,
Speaker 4: like I said, and we're back in style. Dare I say?
Speaker 4: Because the leader of this race led second place by
Speaker 4: over twenty seconds. His lap time was a minute and
Speaker 4: thirteen seconds, So with that information you can kind of
Speaker 4: paint a picture of how sizeable this gap actually is.
Speaker 4: And leader of this race was not Max. You know,
Speaker 4: I know you thought it was him, but it's not him.
Speaker 4: Orlando Norris. Lando Norris won the Dutch Grand Prix with
Speaker 4: Max Verstappen coming in second and Charles l Kirk came
Speaker 4: in third. At Ferrari, I was very happy to see Charles,
Speaker 4: not even Charles just a for on the podium. It's
Speaker 4: been so long they've been in a very dark, dark place.
Speaker 4: And now the discussion is whether we have a title
Speaker 4: match rivalry on our hands here, like does Lando Norris
Speaker 4: seriously have a shot of beating Max in the Ultimate Championship.
Speaker 4: Lando himself has actually said that this whole proposition is stupid,
Speaker 4: and you know, I have to agree only because in
Speaker 4: order for him to beat Max in the Dravas Championship,
Speaker 4: he would have to win every single race from this
Speaker 4: point on, and honestly, I don't see that happening. But
Speaker 4: it is a good storyline. You know. It's fun to
Speaker 4: talk about, it's fun to speculate, it's fun to have
Speaker 4: the idea. But it it's not gonna happen. It's not
Speaker 4: gonna happen. But that's all I have time for. That's
Speaker 4: been here for a minute. I will talk to you
Speaker 4: guys on Thursday.
Speaker 2: Great one Sierra. Get us caught up on everything. By
Speaker 2: the way, part of my trip I was in Monte Carlo,
Speaker 2: which is kind of like the race car capital of
Speaker 2: the world, and there were we went to an F
Speaker 2: one museum. It's not even an F one museum, so
Speaker 2: it's just quick Monaco. Monte Carlo is a city in Monaco,
Speaker 2: but Monico is the tiniest, like the second smallest country
Speaker 2: in the world. It's like twenty kilometers and it just
Speaker 2: exists I think is I don't even Actually, I'll be honest.
Speaker 2: People can google why it exists has to do with
Speaker 2: taxes and finances. The reason I want to say it
Speaker 2: is because I think one day I might want to
Speaker 2: live there, and I don't want them to be like
Speaker 2: you said it was. It was a beautiful it was.
Speaker 2: It was the most beautiful place I've ever been to
Speaker 2: in my life. And I have nothing bad to say
Speaker 2: about it. But when I said I went to a
Speaker 2: car racing museum, it's just the Prince's car collection, the
Speaker 2: Prince of Monico. It's just like, hey, here's my car
Speaker 2: collection and people can come see it. Ah, but there
Speaker 2: are You can also rent old F one cars or
Speaker 2: at old timey looking F one cars to just drive
Speaker 2: on the road. Demanse at Casino Monte Carlo, where I
Speaker 2: was gambling. It was I'm not exaggerating. I'll send you
Speaker 2: some pictures or your mom probably posted them on Instagram.
Speaker 2: It was in a row one night. When I say
Speaker 2: it was the nicest cars in the world, this is
Speaker 2: I'm looking at it. This is the first four cars
Speaker 2: in the parking area of Casino Monte Carlo. Lamborghini SUV,
Speaker 2: Lamborghini Suv, Bugatti, Lamborghini, Coop Bugotti, five cars, bang bang
Speaker 2: bang bang bang, and people just come to the casino
Speaker 2: in the Valet area just to take pictures. It was
Speaker 2: there was not a single car in the casino Valet.
Speaker 2: So I'll put it like this.
Speaker 3: You know the car I have, we have.
Speaker 2: There were two of those there, and they were clearly
Speaker 2: like the JV cars. It's like, oh, that's cute, like
Speaker 2: like oh, like you put time and thought and money
Speaker 2: into this, but like be serious, like the adult. Yeah,
Speaker 2: like I mean, that's what it was, and I've never
Speaker 2: seen anything like it. Uh Okay, Now to the listener questions,
Speaker 2: what is Nick? What's the best way to fade Deshaun Watson?
Speaker 2: If you believe in the Browns but not their quarterback,
Speaker 2: I would say those bets de mondot Deshaun Watson unders
Speaker 2: you know what I mean? Those that would be the
Speaker 2: best way to do it. Why is everyone so low
Speaker 2: in Seattle? Nationally? Got the best defensive mine, the best
Speaker 2: defensive player in the draft, US row, a lot of talent,
Speaker 2: upgraded every coaching spot. I don't think everyone's down on Seattle,
Speaker 2: and I think that people don't like them as much
Speaker 2: as the Rams and the Niners, and it's tough. Is
Speaker 2: it gonna be a three division, three playoff team division?
Speaker 2: I think people are worried about the offensive line. I
Speaker 2: think that's the biggest question, and I think a lot
Speaker 2: of people do I believe in Gino? Mostly? I think
Speaker 2: a lot of people just don't believe in Gino. Curtis Matthews,
Speaker 2: do you see this year's quarterback class going down as
Speaker 2: one of the best in history? Let's see him play
Speaker 2: a single game first, I get it four and two.
Speaker 2: What do you think? Who do you think will have
Speaker 2: the best season? Tony Pollard and Tennessee, Stefon Diggs in
Speaker 2: Houston or Field Russ in Pittsburgh. I would take the
Speaker 2: unders across the board on that group of players, but
Speaker 2: I guess Diggs in Houston. I just don't know how
Speaker 2: much he's gonna be targeted. If you were to do
Speaker 2: head coaching tiers, where WARDI refluce sit. That's too long
Speaker 2: of a question to get into right now. Nick no
Speaker 2: Baker love the odds are the Bucks win? The NFC
Speaker 2: has to be up there. I just think Atlanta has
Speaker 2: built perfectly to win a division and lose their first
Speaker 2: home playoff game. I just like, I kind of just
Speaker 2: want to bet on that exacta right now. Atlanta wins
Speaker 2: the NFC South plays the best wild card team, so
Speaker 2: probably the Niners, and gets rocked on the turf in
Speaker 2: their building. Like, I just think that's gonna happen. The
Speaker 2: producers are wondering if the Bills to lose in the
Speaker 2: division round plus four fifty as the exact stage elimination
Speaker 2: is a good bet. It's hit three years straight. I
Speaker 2: think I don't think it's.
Speaker 3: A good bet.
Speaker 2: I think the smart I think you would get better.
Speaker 2: I just think you would get better odds.
Speaker 3: On the Bills.
Speaker 2: Bet them to make the playoffs, take the money you
Speaker 2: make on that on them on the money line in
Speaker 2: their first playoff game, and then bet that on the
Speaker 2: money line in their second round. So you and sar
Speaker 2: what I mean? So like, I think that you would
Speaker 2: get accumulative better than four point fifty on that sequence
Speaker 2: rather than just betting it. Right now. Nathaniel says, Mahomes
Speaker 2: over under forty passing touchdowns. I love the over there.
Speaker 2: Scott Fraser says, Pat's under kamand they go one and
Speaker 2: seven to start. Whoever starts and finished two games against
Speaker 2: the Bills. Man, it just as a general rule, betting
Speaker 2: the under on the worst team in the league is
Speaker 2: just a little square, like betting the under on the
Speaker 2: smallest number out there. I just don't love it. Timo
Speaker 2: Cruz says he's invested heavily in Nico Collins over nine
Speaker 2: hundred and seventy five yards. Just be careful investing heavily
Speaker 2: on any individual player prop because you're just one tweaked
Speaker 2: hamstring of like, oh well, that BET's dead. That's also why,
Speaker 2: if you're actually betting player props, unders are smarter because
Speaker 2: you can hit it just because they don't you know,
Speaker 2: they were overvalued. You can also hit it like justin
Speaker 2: Jefferson last year averaged one hundred yards a game and
Speaker 2: hit under in everything because he missed six games. So
Speaker 2: like I listen, I'm not a player prop guy. I'm
Speaker 2: not a fancy guy. That's it, all right, demons, this
Speaker 2: great show. This is awesome. I love this show every year.
Speaker 2: No Colin today because he's off. But go ahead, what
Speaker 2: were you about to say, pal.
Speaker 3: Let's win some money.
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, let's win some money. Do it also, But
Speaker 2: what I will tell you is in nine minutes, you
Speaker 2: can check out episode two of breakfast Ball with Craig
Speaker 2: cart and Mark Schlereth and my guy Danny Parkins. Episode
Speaker 2: one was super fun. Check it out if you haven't
Speaker 2: seen it yet, I'll be on the air in three hours.
Speaker 2: What's right? Hey, thanks for watching. If you're still here,
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