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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: All right, here we go throwing spect we're sitting.

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Speaker 1: It's a cash touchdown. We see most gamble is when

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Speaker 1: they go to gamble, they go to win. That's incredible.

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Speaker 1: Being bank small banks, I like to make money. All right,

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Speaker 1: this is the ultimate combine and you want to be

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Speaker 1: and we are under way.

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Speaker 2: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast. I am your host,

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Speaker 2: Evan Abrams, and today we've got a real special one

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Speaker 2: for you. Not only is it kind of the comeback

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Speaker 2: of me and you know on pods for football and

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Speaker 2: getting ready for the season, but today is our annual

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Speaker 2: Anytime Touchdown Manifesto with touchdown Betting extraordinary. Jill goant, Jill, listen.

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Speaker 2: Before we get into this, I have two questions for you.

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Speaker 2: Number one, how excited are you for the upcoming NFL season?

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Speaker 2: I need something good at you. And of course, what

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Speaker 2: is your first touchdown bet for Week one? I got

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Speaker 2: to know that right off the top.

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Speaker 1: Well, so if you had asked me that question like

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Speaker 1: a month ago, I'd probably be like, eh, I'm kind

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Speaker 1: of mixed. And then about a week ago, our boss

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Speaker 1: messages to talk about this podcast and saying could we

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Speaker 1: do this again? And it was like I saw the

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Speaker 1: bat signal with the NFL logo, like I was like, oh,

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Speaker 1: NFL is coming back, So I was. My mood changed

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Speaker 1: very quickly once we started getting ready and researching for

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Speaker 1: this podcast. So yeah, I am stoked for the NFL season.

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Speaker 1: I have started to look at Week one. I've got

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Speaker 1: a couple early leans per Week one, but I was

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Speaker 1: looking at, of course, Cowboys Eagles because obviously, being a

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Speaker 1: Cowboys fan, wanted to look at the opener. Evan, I

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Speaker 1: think Jake Ferguson. I think he might get a touchdown

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Speaker 1: because he did not score all of last year, was

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Speaker 1: very hot coming into the year. He's around plus three

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Speaker 1: point fifty right now to score against the Eagles. Just

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Speaker 1: got a nice contract from Jerry. So let's ride the

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Speaker 1: fergie Jake Ferguson anytime touchdown against the Philadelphia Eagles.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, we know the NFL season's back when you're taking

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Speaker 2: the tight end on a seven point dog in the opener.

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Speaker 2: So I can't wait to get Randy for this one.

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Speaker 2: But listen, today, we'll get into all the ins and

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Speaker 2: outs of betting anytime touchdowns in the NFL. So let's

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Speaker 2: jump in and we're gonna go section by section here

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Speaker 2: and really let Jill kind of talk about his process,

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Speaker 2: talk about how he does, you know, a week to

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Speaker 2: week all these different players, and then closer to kickoff

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Speaker 2: of the games, we're gonna have a ton of written

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Speaker 2: content where he's also going to go into a lot

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Speaker 2: of these different theories and strategies and tips. So definitely

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Speaker 2: be on the look for that. But let's just start

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Speaker 2: off the top here with the three most important rules

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Speaker 2: from your point of view, and that I'll kind of

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Speaker 2: give my perspective, but I'll let you take the floor

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Speaker 2: here for sure.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and I've been betting touchdowns now for seven years,

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Speaker 1: but I've really been doing it with Action Network now

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Speaker 1: for three years. This is my fourth season coming in

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Speaker 1: and when I look at the full scope of all

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Speaker 1: my NFL bets, it's around ninety percent of all of

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Speaker 1: my NFL bets are coming from the touchdown market. So

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Speaker 1: I've had a lot of experience doing this. So the

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Speaker 1: three most important rules for me will start off with

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Speaker 1: just an easy one here, and some of it this

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Speaker 1: will be common sense to people, but I still feel

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Speaker 1: like if the new betters who are coming in recreational betters,

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Speaker 1: this is still very helpful information, but you've got to

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Speaker 1: track your wins and losses, track all of your bets.

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Speaker 1: So naturally we're company men. Action Network has a great

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Speaker 1: app that can allow this for you and do this

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Speaker 1: for you because like, for example, somebody who is betting

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Speaker 1: anytime touchdowns just as straight bets to forget about the parlays,

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Speaker 1: like their win rate can range anywhere from obviously zero

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Speaker 1: percent to probably closer to like thirty five percent. Think

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Speaker 1: about it as similar to the way that you see

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Speaker 1: success with guys who are betting home run bets in

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Speaker 1: Major League Baseball. But they'll tell you just like home

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Speaker 1: run bets, just like touchdowns, very volatile market, lots of swings,

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Speaker 1: there's good luck, there's bad luck. And I find by

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Speaker 1: using something like the Action app to be able to

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Speaker 1: track your picks, it helps you to be able to

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Speaker 1: just see a your overall profitability. But just it's important

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Speaker 1: to know where you're being successful, where you're failing. If

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Speaker 1: you need to adapt that strategy, obviously Action App I

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Speaker 1: think will be able to help you with that. But

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Speaker 1: even if you don't end up using the Action app,

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Speaker 1: just use something track it, pen and paper. I don't care,

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Speaker 1: just you got to track what you're doing throughout the season.

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Speaker 1: So that's rule number one. Rule number two forget about

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Speaker 1: win percentage. It's all about the profits in ROI And

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Speaker 1: as I said, like those home run bets, anything with

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Speaker 1: large odds, win percentage just can't be your primary metric

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Speaker 1: or success. And I find a lot of the time

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Speaker 1: on social media you'll see kind of some of these

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Speaker 1: accounts e and on social kind of not mislead, but

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Speaker 1: kind of just be a little indirect with what they're

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Speaker 1: talking about and saying like I'm hitting seventy percent of

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Speaker 1: my bets, but they kind of downplay the steam of

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Speaker 1: what they're playing. So I find that sometimes with touchdown bets,

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Speaker 1: if you're using win percentage, it can be a little

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Speaker 1: misleading when it comes to the profitability of that. So

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Speaker 1: that would be rule number two, and then rule number three.

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Speaker 1: This is arguably, in my opinion, the most important is

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Speaker 1: using odds comparison tools. We have a great one with

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Speaker 1: the Action Network website that you can use to be

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Speaker 1: able to compare different odds at different sports books. And

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Speaker 1: I find that you also have to have multiple sports

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Speaker 1: books to be able to take advantage of said edges.

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Speaker 1: And one player that I always think of. We were

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Speaker 1: actually just talking about them off air with our producer

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Speaker 1: David who went to BYU. We were talking about Taysom Hill. Now,

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Speaker 1: Taysom is going to probably be out for a good

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Speaker 1: portion of the year, but over the previous years, Evan,

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Speaker 1: what you would see is you would look at sportsbooks

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Speaker 1: and you would see it on a given week, one

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Speaker 1: day you would see it one book you would see

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Speaker 1: them at like plus one ninety, and then another one

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Speaker 1: you would see them at like plus four fifty. And

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Speaker 1: if you don't have multiple sports books and multiple outs

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Speaker 1: to be able to go look at those different discrepancies,

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Speaker 1: you're going to leave money on the table, and that

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Speaker 1: kind of ensure that you get those long term profits

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Speaker 1: by getting the best odds. So those are the three

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Speaker 1: rules we're going to start off with. Track your bets,

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Speaker 1: profits and ROI are more important than win percentage, use

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Speaker 1: odds comparison tools, with multiple sportsbook outs.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think all three of them kind of tie together,

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Speaker 2: to be honest, Like, if you're going to do one

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Speaker 2: of them, you're most likely already having the data to

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Speaker 2: do all three. And I will say one thing about

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Speaker 2: the action apps. You tap someone to like bet a

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Speaker 2: touchdown anytime touchdown, and then all of the books just

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Speaker 2: list below it. So it is really just super easy

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Speaker 2: to be able to see from book to book depending

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Speaker 2: on what state you are in terms of the touchdown

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Speaker 2: score itself. I will say, like one person that comes

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Speaker 2: to mind is like Yoshabash in terms of touchdown Yeah,

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Speaker 2: so like just to be like, I feel like it's

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Speaker 2: almost those like third wide receivers or the backup running backs.

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Speaker 2: So you go from book to book and it can

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Speaker 2: be like very different, which is a very good tip. Okay,

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Speaker 2: so now we're going to talk a little bit about

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Speaker 2: data because I think when you're doing research for touchdowns themselves,

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Speaker 2: a lot of people look at the box score maybe

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Speaker 2: to start, and then you start to realize there are

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Speaker 2: other stats that give you a little bit more information.

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Speaker 2: So why don't you dive into this and then sure,

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Speaker 2: I'll tell you at least when I do it, I'll

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Speaker 2: tell you which ones I use. But I think all

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Speaker 2: of these are important. So well, you know the.

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Speaker 1: Data kings I refer to, right, So I think that

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Speaker 1: like if somebody who could talk data, you would be

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Speaker 1: one of those guys I would refer to. But I

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Speaker 1: guess it goes back to like good data versus bad data,

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Speaker 1: and I don't necessarily think that there is bad data

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Speaker 1: out there. I think my issue is that a lot

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Speaker 1: of times, especially in newer betters or maybe even recreational betters,

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Speaker 1: they'll just kind of way the traditional stats way heavier

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Speaker 1: than what is. There's more data out there now, so

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Speaker 1: like if you're betting on a wide receiver, touchdown prop,

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Speaker 1: the general stuff like snap counts, targets, receptions, those are

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Speaker 1: all readily available online. You can find those. Those obviously important,

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Speaker 1: but they're just already kind of factored into the odds

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Speaker 1: a lot of the time. Evan and I find a

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Speaker 1: lot of the time that's not really going to provide

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Speaker 1: you an edge. Where now I've found over the last

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Speaker 1: couple of seasons, I've been focusing less on what an

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Speaker 1: offensive player can do and more on what the defense

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Speaker 1: can stop there and what kind of personnel that they have.

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Speaker 1: So metrics I love to use now is something like

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Speaker 1: we have great affiliations with like fantasy points, like you

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Speaker 1: can get man coverage or zone coverage, defensive rates, defensive

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Speaker 1: tendencies like cover two or cover three rates when they're

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Speaker 1: playing zone defenses and then which players succeed the most

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Speaker 1: versus those types of coverages. Then you're able to look

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Speaker 1: at you know, route participation, depth of route, cornerback matchups.

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Speaker 1: As the season goes along, you could even start to

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Speaker 1: use DVOA to be able to measure certain defenses. I

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Speaker 1: will say for DVOWA coming into this season, which is

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Speaker 1: a good stat from FTN, a lot of it is

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Speaker 1: going to be last year's data. I mean week one

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Speaker 1: when we go in, we kind of are married to

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Speaker 1: what we saw a little bit in preseason and last

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Speaker 1: year's data. So as the season goes on and we

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Speaker 1: get more data, that only helps with our touchdown bets.

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Speaker 1: So that would be the main thing that I would

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Speaker 1: say from a research standpoint is that box score context

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Speaker 1: is key and not all stats are created equal.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think it's almost a mixture, right because if

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Speaker 2: it sometimes you see t teams feed a guy for

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Speaker 2: a certain range of games. So like you know, knowing

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Speaker 2: somebody has scored in seven or eight straight games or

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Speaker 2: whatever it is is most likely going to be information

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Speaker 2: that everyone knows and that's out there and it's maked

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Speaker 2: into the line. But having that information when you're doing

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Speaker 2: this I think is still important, but I think when

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Speaker 2: you're actually doing research player to player and trying to

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Speaker 2: find like an edge on some odds, I think doing

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Speaker 2: some of the things that you were discussing is probably

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Speaker 2: more of a last year or two kind of innovation

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Speaker 2: in the touchdown betting industry. Right, Like, I agree with you,

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Speaker 2: I think the coverages when you're talking about wide receivers

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Speaker 2: and tight ends has become more important, at least recently,

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Speaker 2: because I think the data is cleaner. I think the

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Speaker 2: data is better, and I think, you know, it's still

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Speaker 2: a little niche. So I think there is you know,

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Speaker 2: edges there they may not be in other places. And

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Speaker 2: I really do look at participation like routes on pass attempts,

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Speaker 2: like making sure that the player, especially if you again

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Speaker 2: it's a wide receiver, a tight end is going to

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Speaker 2: be on the field available getting at least looks out there,

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Speaker 2: because again, he can't score a touchdown more or less

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Speaker 2: in that role if he's not out there running routes.

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Speaker 2: So I think, you know, we used to look a

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Speaker 2: lot more at targets, but I think, you know, actually

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Speaker 2: being participating in these circumstances becomes just as valuable. So

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Speaker 2: that is and also you know end zone targets, red

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Speaker 2: zone like things like that, you know, actually getting looks

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Speaker 2: so they don't have to have explosive plays to score

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Speaker 2: touchdowns or other angles as well.

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Speaker 1: And I think another thing too, Evan, is sports books

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Speaker 1: aren't dumb. They're going to eventually adapt and those edges

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Speaker 1: that I've just shown of, like on the defensive side,

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Speaker 1: those are going to shrink too, and then as a

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Speaker 1: touchdown better you're going to have to adapt find different edges.

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Speaker 1: So really what's just happened over the last few seasons

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Speaker 1: is just the edges have shrunk, even though I would

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Speaker 1: just say everything else yes, in sports betting as it's

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Speaker 1: gotten larger and larger, and I think the main thing

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Speaker 1: that I would just say is that there are still

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Speaker 1: edges out there. You just have to dig a little

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Speaker 1: bit harder, which means that you just can't use the

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Speaker 1: surface stats to be able to find them.

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Speaker 2: You just got to find your Nick Westbrook Akina, which

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Speaker 2: we will talk about a little bit later. But let's

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Speaker 2: let's go. Yeah, let's go into the eye test here,

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Speaker 2: because I think what's intriguing is is we all watch

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Speaker 2: the games, we all love football, we all love red zone.

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Speaker 2: We're all watching the primetime game, so most fans, betters,

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Speaker 2: investors are all seeing the touchdowns going through the data, like,

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Speaker 2: we all seem to be on a level playing field,

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Speaker 2: or at least more of a level playing field than

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Speaker 2: maybe we have been in the past. So I'm curious

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Speaker 2: what your thought is is, Wow, this player looks really good.

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Speaker 2: He's scoring touchdowns. Let me just keep betting him, which

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Speaker 2: we're gonna call here is the eye test.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, And I find what happens is the touchdown odds

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Speaker 1: don't reflect who's throwing the ball, Like, I think that's

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Speaker 1: just something that the quarterback. I find ways way more

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Speaker 1: heavier now, especially if we're just using receiver touchdown props

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Speaker 1: like as an example, So like we see these a

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Speaker 1: candidate every year where they get ten plus targets a

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Speaker 1: game and they just get not even close to a

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Speaker 1: sniff in the end zone, right Like in twenty twenty two,

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Speaker 1: that was Deontay Johnson with the Steelers. He finished top

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Speaker 1: ten in targets zero touchdowns on the year. In twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty three, Garrett Wilson another guy top ten in targets,

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Speaker 1: but again Zach Wilson throwing the ball. Joe Flacco a

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Speaker 1: little bit as well, but again only scored in two

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Speaker 1: of seventeen games that he played, and then twenty twenty four.

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Speaker 1: This one's probably gonna ruffle some feathers, Evan, I think

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Speaker 1: it's brock Bowers. Last year, who was that because sportsbooks

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Speaker 1: feasted off of the Bartender football fan mindset of always

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Speaker 1: do like, look at all these targets, we have to

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Speaker 1: bet them, but they're not looking at who's throwing the ball,

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Speaker 1: Like in Deonda Johnson's case, you had Mason Rudolph Zach Wilson,

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Speaker 1: and in Garrett Wilson's case last year, I mean we

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Speaker 1: trashed this guy repeatedly, Gardner Minshew throwing the ball. Just

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Speaker 1: awful quarterbacks. So all the metrics and even the odds

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Speaker 1: can sometimes line up where you want to consider those

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Speaker 1: wide receivers. But plus EV odds doesn't own necessarily mean

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Speaker 1: a plus EV offense. Right, So brock Bowers, let's talk

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Speaker 1: about him, because he's going to be somebody that is

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Speaker 1: very hyped up coming into Week one. He was stixed

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Speaker 1: in total targets last year. He looks the part. But

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Speaker 1: let's just talk about his touchdown production. Five touchdowns last year,

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Speaker 1: and despite his lack of touchdown production in the second

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Speaker 1: half of the season, Evan, you were starting to see

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Speaker 1: his touchdown odds continuously drop despite not scoring. So from

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Speaker 1: Week thirteen onward, brock Bauers had touchdown odds that range

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Speaker 1: from plus one sixty five to plus one ninety Aidan

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Speaker 1: O'Connell was his quarterback. That's a huge red flag from me.

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Speaker 1: That's empty calories right now. So that's what we saw

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Speaker 1: last year and that trash of an offense. Now imagine

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Speaker 1: this year. I've got Ashton JT, You've got Geno Smith,

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Speaker 1: You've got Pete Carroll. The hype train is going to

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Speaker 1: be out of control for the Raiders. And right now,

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Speaker 1: what I'm looking around now at brock Bauers, his touchdown

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Speaker 1: odds are anywhere between plus one forty and plus one

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Speaker 1: fifty five. Evan, that's just you're buying so high on

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Speaker 1: this right now. If you're going to be betting on

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Speaker 1: brock Bowers to score a touchdown. I'm not saying he's

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Speaker 1: not going to score. I'm not saying that he isn't awesome.

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Speaker 1: I'm saying that the odds are not value. At plus

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Speaker 1: one fifty you've got to try to get somewhere around

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Speaker 1: plus two hundred for him, given that the touchdown production

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Speaker 1: just has not been there yet. It's kind of one

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Speaker 1: of those I got to see it to believe it.

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Speaker 1: Sometimes if we go back to the eye test part.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, the eye test is interesting though, because you would

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Speaker 2: look at the move from O'Connell to Geno and say

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Speaker 2: that's an advantage, but it looks like it's kind of

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Speaker 2: baked into his odds, especially because he hasn't been a

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Speaker 2: consistent score. The other one I was thinking of is again,

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Speaker 2: I think you kind of you're kind of right here.

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Speaker 2: I think there's an approach here that's interesting where people

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Speaker 2: ignore maybe sometimes the actual quarterback throwing in the ball,

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Speaker 2: Like I look at Garrett Wilson again, like how much

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Speaker 2: can we rely on justin fields it's going to be

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Speaker 2: a consistent passer, right, But I think that's an example

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Speaker 2: I was looking at. And then you kind of look

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Speaker 2: at Indie right like, I don't necessarily know we know

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Speaker 2: who the quarterback is going to be there, but do

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Speaker 2: we trust either guy to get downs? And Pittman enough work?

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Speaker 2: Like I think some of these different circumstances might be

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Speaker 2: more interesting than others, But I do think the quarterback

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Speaker 2: has something to do with it, and I do think

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Speaker 2: the Jets is one I've circled. As you know, Wilson's

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Speaker 2: a ridiculous talent, but you know, Fields has never been,

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Speaker 2: especially with his rushing ability. Right, Like the stats end

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Speaker 2: up getting split a little bit.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and really what that means low Evan, it's just

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Speaker 1: kind of transitioning to the next thing of what I

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Speaker 1: wanted to talk about was it's just about having kind

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Speaker 1: of like an odds cut off, like where you don't

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Speaker 1: necessarily I'm basically stop forcing touchdown bets if the odds

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Speaker 1: aren't giving you value. So I'm somewhat considered like an

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Speaker 1: originator of touchdown bets as far as the odds go,

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Speaker 1: meaning like my odds technically will give me more sharper

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Speaker 1: lines than some sportsbooks for closing touchdown odds. But one

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Speaker 1: of the things that I started doing when I was

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Speaker 1: back in twenty eighteen, when I kind of first was

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Speaker 1: starting to do this, is I used to just take

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Speaker 1: like a primetime game, and I would write down a

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Speaker 1: list of every player and just write down what I

335
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Speaker 1: think like their touchdown odds should be, and then I

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Speaker 1: would try to find the discrepancies and then I would

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Speaker 1: bet and it worked out. It was a nice little start.

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Speaker 1: And then obviously the sports books they've gotten much sharper

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Speaker 1: their touchdown odds that they just don't have as much

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Speaker 1: edds edges or discrepancies like we used to see. But

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Speaker 1: now you can find models online, whether it be free,

342
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Speaker 1: you can use some action network where they can generate

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Speaker 1: fair expected odds for touchdown props, and then that allows

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Speaker 1: you to create that odds cut off, which means that

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Speaker 1: a player goes past a certain threshold, it's just no

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Speaker 1: longer betable. So a guy, for example, if we have evan,

347
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Speaker 1: if we're looking at a guy and we have them

348
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Speaker 1: at minus one twenty or maybe a coin flip like

349
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Speaker 1: minus one fifteen, but the touchdown odds are plus one

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Speaker 1: fifty and our research is lining up, we should place

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Speaker 1: that BET's that's a plus ev bet that I won't

352
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Speaker 1: knock those kinds of bets. But on the flip side,

353
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Speaker 1: I see this all the time, expected far odds around

354
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Speaker 1: plus one fifty and then it's plus one ten, and

355
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Speaker 1: then they force it anyway because like this guy's so

356
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Speaker 1: do he's got a score and it's like, man, you're

357
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Speaker 1: leaving value on the table here. So that's the main

358
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Speaker 1: thing in general. I just try to tell people, like

359
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Speaker 1: with betting touchdowns, is that just because there's a game

360
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Speaker 1: on doesn't mean you need to force you know, four

361
00:17:13,080 --> 00:17:16,040
Speaker 1: or five anytime touchdown bets, a multi touchdown bet, three

362
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Speaker 1: first touchdown bets, Like, you're going to get so exposed

363
00:17:19,320 --> 00:17:22,080
Speaker 1: if you do that, especially because what we have tracked

364
00:17:22,119 --> 00:17:25,320
Speaker 1: over the last few years now is primetime games. Especially

365
00:17:25,320 --> 00:17:28,240
Speaker 1: for some of the more prominent sportsbooks, their initial odd

366
00:17:28,280 --> 00:17:31,679
Speaker 1: releases for any time touchdowns are heavily skewed for popular players.

367
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Speaker 1: They don't want to get burned. They don't want to

368
00:17:33,560 --> 00:17:35,400
Speaker 1: put a guy at plus one fifty when he should

369
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Speaker 1: be at plus one ten. So more than likely, especially

370
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Speaker 1: for the most popular guys, you're likely betting into a

371
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Speaker 1: bad number and you're not maximizing your profitability. And even

372
00:17:44,160 --> 00:17:46,399
Speaker 1: as a recreational better that is still something that you

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Speaker 1: want to do. So if you have that odds cut

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Speaker 1: off or even just an expected odds where you say, Okay,

375
00:17:51,760 --> 00:17:53,479
Speaker 1: this is too rich for me, I can't do it,

376
00:17:53,760 --> 00:17:56,080
Speaker 1: it can just put your mind at ease about having

377
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Speaker 1: fomo for not having a bet, especially in like a

378
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Speaker 1: very popular primetime game.

379
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Speaker 2: Yeah, and I think most people who bet kind of

380
00:18:03,119 --> 00:18:04,919
Speaker 2: consistently will know this as well. But if you do

381
00:18:05,000 --> 00:18:08,359
Speaker 2: some parlays between some touchdown scores in that primetime game,

382
00:18:08,600 --> 00:18:10,479
Speaker 2: they're also going to be cut as well. Like, not

383
00:18:10,520 --> 00:18:13,040
Speaker 2: only are the odds going to be juiced, but when

384
00:18:13,040 --> 00:18:15,240
Speaker 2: you toss them together in a parlay, it won't add

385
00:18:15,280 --> 00:18:15,600
Speaker 2: up to it.

386
00:18:15,640 --> 00:18:18,320
Speaker 1: Exactly what it's supposed to be.

387
00:18:18,560 --> 00:18:20,760
Speaker 2: Correct, So it all kind of gets cut there. I

388
00:18:20,800 --> 00:18:24,120
Speaker 2: guess one interesting question I would have for you when

389
00:18:24,160 --> 00:18:26,040
Speaker 2: it comes to because the next section is going to

390
00:18:26,080 --> 00:18:28,520
Speaker 2: be minus odds touchdown scores, so this is a little

391
00:18:28,560 --> 00:18:32,199
Speaker 2: bit of a connection to that. But I'm curious. You know,

392
00:18:32,280 --> 00:18:37,800
Speaker 2: obviously you can have projections and edges in terms of

393
00:18:38,119 --> 00:18:41,200
Speaker 2: two touchdown scores, right like betting them to score two

394
00:18:41,200 --> 00:18:43,199
Speaker 2: touchdowns in the game, And I think that becomes an

395
00:18:43,200 --> 00:18:47,280
Speaker 2: interesting topic for me. When you get to minus odds

396
00:18:47,320 --> 00:18:50,320
Speaker 2: for one touchdown, especially when you talk about running backs,

397
00:18:50,840 --> 00:18:53,119
Speaker 2: you get an early touchdown, then the second bet is

398
00:18:53,160 --> 00:18:55,680
Speaker 2: basically the rest of the game. And I think more

399
00:18:55,680 --> 00:18:58,480
Speaker 2: recently you're seeing some of the bellcals, even some wide

400
00:18:58,520 --> 00:19:02,080
Speaker 2: receivers getting two touchdowns? What is just your thought process

401
00:19:02,280 --> 00:19:06,000
Speaker 2: when I think it works really specifically for those guys

402
00:19:06,040 --> 00:19:10,040
Speaker 2: priced like minus one fifteen to minus one, you know,

403
00:19:10,080 --> 00:19:13,600
Speaker 2: fifty range, who you actually see some value in because

404
00:19:13,640 --> 00:19:15,959
Speaker 2: maybe they should be minus two hundred. But do you

405
00:19:16,040 --> 00:19:18,919
Speaker 2: consider that second touchdown? Is that like part of a

406
00:19:19,119 --> 00:19:22,000
Speaker 2: unit like you, how do you really handle that week

407
00:19:22,000 --> 00:19:22,320
Speaker 2: to week?

408
00:19:22,720 --> 00:19:25,320
Speaker 1: Well, if you're talking about like somebody like Saquon Barkley,

409
00:19:25,359 --> 00:19:26,720
Speaker 1: like I'm just thinking about the guys who are at

410
00:19:26,720 --> 00:19:28,480
Speaker 1: the top of the list like him or Derek Henry

411
00:19:28,560 --> 00:19:31,200
Speaker 1: or whatever, those are kind of a case by case basis.

412
00:19:31,200 --> 00:19:34,320
Speaker 1: But I probably in those instances I more often than

413
00:19:34,320 --> 00:19:38,000
Speaker 1: to not the anytime touchdown what you see has the

414
00:19:38,080 --> 00:19:40,080
Speaker 1: mega steem on it where there's no value, But then

415
00:19:40,080 --> 00:19:42,960
Speaker 1: the two touchdown prop does end up showing a little

416
00:19:43,000 --> 00:19:45,879
Speaker 1: bit of value. So sure there are instances where we

417
00:19:45,920 --> 00:19:48,520
Speaker 1: do see that. I mean Saquan was a perfect example

418
00:19:48,520 --> 00:19:52,720
Speaker 1: in the playoffs, right, So, but in that instance, I

419
00:19:52,760 --> 00:19:55,119
Speaker 1: am not against betting on a two touchdown prop if

420
00:19:55,160 --> 00:19:58,399
Speaker 1: it does show return value. But for me, again we

421
00:19:58,440 --> 00:20:00,000
Speaker 1: talk about this all the time, there's just so much

422
00:20:00,080 --> 00:20:03,879
Speaker 1: more value everywhere else that I just I've been burned

423
00:20:03,920 --> 00:20:05,960
Speaker 1: so many times on taking like a high end running

424
00:20:05,960 --> 00:20:08,119
Speaker 1: back or get like Saikua would be the best example,

425
00:20:08,119 --> 00:20:10,080
Speaker 1: where you would just get vultured by Jalen Hurts or

426
00:20:10,119 --> 00:20:13,119
Speaker 1: something like that. So it would just kill you to

427
00:20:13,160 --> 00:20:14,960
Speaker 1: want to do that. But there are other guys, though,

428
00:20:15,000 --> 00:20:18,480
Speaker 1: I find where you can find positive value on the

429
00:20:18,520 --> 00:20:21,280
Speaker 1: anytime touchdown and then also on the two touchdowns, Like

430
00:20:21,280 --> 00:20:24,080
Speaker 1: I think of like somebody like T Higgins or Terry McClure,

431
00:20:24,160 --> 00:20:26,200
Speaker 1: and like this past year where I was hitting those guys,

432
00:20:26,480 --> 00:20:29,040
Speaker 1: but they were already at like plus two hundred just

433
00:20:29,080 --> 00:20:32,080
Speaker 1: for an anytime touchdown, so we're already seeing positive value.

434
00:20:32,119 --> 00:20:36,400
Speaker 1: But then also the matchup yielded higher floor, higher ceiling

435
00:20:36,480 --> 00:20:39,399
Speaker 1: of potential, right, and then you're seeing instead of a

436
00:20:39,480 --> 00:20:41,920
Speaker 1: two touchdown prop for T Higgins, where it probably should

437
00:20:41,920 --> 00:20:44,040
Speaker 1: be at like fifteen to one, we're seeing it closer

438
00:20:44,080 --> 00:20:46,080
Speaker 1: to like twenty to one because of the matchup. So

439
00:20:46,119 --> 00:20:48,199
Speaker 1: it's like, okay, at that point, I would put like

440
00:20:48,240 --> 00:20:52,240
Speaker 1: point seventy five on anytime touchdown and then point twenty

441
00:20:52,280 --> 00:20:54,600
Speaker 1: five on two touchdowns, and then that way, if the

442
00:20:54,640 --> 00:20:57,160
Speaker 1: anytime touchdown hits, I'm still feeling good and I don't

443
00:20:57,200 --> 00:20:59,560
Speaker 1: feel like and I don't end up losing any profit

444
00:21:00,240 --> 00:21:03,240
Speaker 1: from the gamble or the risk on the two touchdown

445
00:21:03,280 --> 00:21:04,960
Speaker 1: prop as well. So those are kinds of the ways

446
00:21:04,960 --> 00:21:06,400
Speaker 1: that I would go about it. But for the higher

447
00:21:06,520 --> 00:21:10,840
Speaker 1: end guys, you can find value on two touchdown props. Again,

448
00:21:10,920 --> 00:21:14,159
Speaker 1: but those are I would argue kind of hit or

449
00:21:14,200 --> 00:21:17,159
Speaker 1: miss just because, again from a two touchdown prop perspective,

450
00:21:17,800 --> 00:21:20,359
Speaker 1: they're they're not hitting at that rate where they would

451
00:21:20,440 --> 00:21:23,560
Speaker 1: yield a plus three fifty every game, right, So I

452
00:21:23,560 --> 00:21:25,879
Speaker 1: think with Sake one and Derek Henry, there are games

453
00:21:25,920 --> 00:21:27,679
Speaker 1: you know that you could find value on it. I

454
00:21:27,720 --> 00:21:30,400
Speaker 1: just would be very cautious and make sure that you're

455
00:21:30,400 --> 00:21:33,280
Speaker 1: not overextending yourself on a two touchdown prop, especially when

456
00:21:33,280 --> 00:21:36,200
Speaker 1: you're not getting probably the most return on value.

457
00:21:36,400 --> 00:21:38,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, you need to pick your spots. I guess this

458
00:21:38,119 --> 00:21:40,920
Speaker 2: is just a personal antidote from myself, but I seem

459
00:21:40,960 --> 00:21:44,760
Speaker 2: to feel that running backs are a bit more predictive

460
00:21:44,800 --> 00:21:47,840
Speaker 2: on a two touchdown market than wide receivers, just because

461
00:21:48,440 --> 00:21:52,119
Speaker 2: I think, at least personally, I can predict carries maybe

462
00:21:52,160 --> 00:21:55,280
Speaker 2: times of carries a little bit better than times of

463
00:21:55,400 --> 00:21:57,920
Speaker 2: targets or things of that nature. Because I think they're

464
00:21:57,920 --> 00:22:00,360
Speaker 2: a little more volatile and kind of depends a little

465
00:22:00,400 --> 00:22:03,239
Speaker 2: bit more on gamescript obviously depending on the team. But

466
00:22:03,320 --> 00:22:06,920
Speaker 2: that's just a personal antidote myself. So let's go into

467
00:22:06,960 --> 00:22:10,199
Speaker 2: now this next section because we're talking about Saquon We

468
00:22:10,359 --> 00:22:13,960
Speaker 2: you know last year with Derrick Henry, but minus odds

469
00:22:14,000 --> 00:22:18,240
Speaker 2: touchdown scores. I just I know you have data team

470
00:22:18,320 --> 00:22:21,080
Speaker 2: to team year to year. Now, I think this also

471
00:22:21,119 --> 00:22:23,719
Speaker 2: works out based off of some players, right, Like Henry

472
00:22:23,720 --> 00:22:27,400
Speaker 2: scores in fifteen or sixteen of seventeen games. What does

473
00:22:27,440 --> 00:22:30,080
Speaker 2: that actually mean for his yearly total? So why don't

474
00:22:30,080 --> 00:22:31,560
Speaker 2: you just kind of walk into this for us?

475
00:22:31,560 --> 00:22:34,879
Speaker 1: Sure, So I guess I'll just practice this with Like,

476
00:22:35,000 --> 00:22:39,280
Speaker 1: I'm still in the camp of avoiding betting on touchdown

477
00:22:39,280 --> 00:22:41,280
Speaker 1: props at minus odds. That doesn't mean that I'm telling

478
00:22:41,359 --> 00:22:42,800
Speaker 1: people not to do it, just a lot of the

479
00:22:42,840 --> 00:22:45,160
Speaker 1: time I don't end up finding the value on those.

480
00:22:45,320 --> 00:22:48,840
Speaker 1: But the tide is starting to turn a little bit

481
00:22:48,880 --> 00:22:50,960
Speaker 1: on that. Over the last two seasons, we've seen a

482
00:22:51,040 --> 00:22:54,080
Speaker 1: huge swing on players with minus odds to score. So

483
00:22:54,520 --> 00:22:57,840
Speaker 1: I've tracked the anytime touchdown odds every year since twenty twenty,

484
00:22:57,880 --> 00:23:00,480
Speaker 1: so from twenty twenty to twenty twenty two, the hit

485
00:23:00,560 --> 00:23:04,000
Speaker 1: rate on anytime touchdown props with minus odds was always

486
00:23:04,080 --> 00:23:06,679
Speaker 1: under fifty percent. It ranged from forty seven percent to

487
00:23:06,720 --> 00:23:09,080
Speaker 1: forty eight and a half percent, and it was around

488
00:23:09,080 --> 00:23:10,960
Speaker 1: twelve and a half players per week that would be

489
00:23:11,000 --> 00:23:15,479
Speaker 1: at minus odds. But in twenty twenty three that saw

490
00:23:15,520 --> 00:23:17,920
Speaker 1: a huge spike that went up to fifty four point

491
00:23:17,960 --> 00:23:20,160
Speaker 1: six percent with an average of thirteen and a half

492
00:23:20,240 --> 00:23:22,479
Speaker 1: per week. Now, I know you somebody might hear that

493
00:23:22,520 --> 00:23:24,560
Speaker 1: and say, like six percent like that, like that doesn't

494
00:23:24,560 --> 00:23:26,960
Speaker 1: seem like much, but that's actually like a huge swing.

495
00:23:27,200 --> 00:23:29,439
Speaker 1: That's all over the course of a season, especially for

496
00:23:29,480 --> 00:23:33,639
Speaker 1: somebody like myself who tracks these like and even last

497
00:23:33,640 --> 00:23:36,399
Speaker 1: season we still saw it hit over fifty percent. It

498
00:23:36,440 --> 00:23:39,199
Speaker 1: was at fifty two point three percent. But then what

499
00:23:39,240 --> 00:23:41,600
Speaker 1: we saw, which is going back to the Derrick Henry

500
00:23:41,600 --> 00:23:45,040
Speaker 1: Saquan argument and to whether or not there's value on them,

501
00:23:45,280 --> 00:23:48,480
Speaker 1: we were seeing just under nineteen players per week, so

502
00:23:48,880 --> 00:23:51,840
Speaker 1: six more players per week at minus odds and still

503
00:23:51,920 --> 00:23:55,720
Speaker 1: hitting at over fifty percent. So that obviously lends the

504
00:23:55,800 --> 00:23:59,640
Speaker 1: question why did that happen? Well, for myself, what I've

505
00:23:59,640 --> 00:24:02,440
Speaker 1: noticed is a big part of sportsbooks are obviously slowly

506
00:24:02,480 --> 00:24:05,240
Speaker 1: reducing the edges on these props. So you're seeing a

507
00:24:05,280 --> 00:24:07,479
Speaker 1: guy who, like I say, a running back one who

508
00:24:07,600 --> 00:24:09,840
Speaker 1: might open at plus one oh five. By the time

509
00:24:09,880 --> 00:24:12,240
Speaker 1: we get to kick off those edges of shrump that's

510
00:24:12,240 --> 00:24:14,200
Speaker 1: now down to minus one fifteen, so he would follow

511
00:24:14,200 --> 00:24:17,240
Speaker 1: in the minus odds category. But also I find betters

512
00:24:17,240 --> 00:24:20,639
Speaker 1: have become smarter too, the basement of the recreational better

513
00:24:20,680 --> 00:24:23,160
Speaker 1: and their knowledge I find has risen over the last

514
00:24:23,240 --> 00:24:26,280
Speaker 1: few seasons. So now when they see a running back

515
00:24:26,320 --> 00:24:29,040
Speaker 1: one at plus one ten, they're not going to wait

516
00:24:29,119 --> 00:24:31,400
Speaker 1: till Sunday morning to place that bet. They're gonna place

517
00:24:31,440 --> 00:24:32,919
Speaker 1: that bet as soon as he could gets released on

518
00:24:33,119 --> 00:24:35,280
Speaker 1: like a Tuesday morning, and then you'll see it drop

519
00:24:35,320 --> 00:24:37,520
Speaker 1: to like minus one ten by kickoff because of the

520
00:24:38,840 --> 00:24:42,359
Speaker 1: odds movements from you know, large betting influencers and large

521
00:24:42,400 --> 00:24:45,679
Speaker 1: followings and lots of money coming in on that specific player.

522
00:24:45,840 --> 00:24:51,280
Speaker 1: So to me, that might actually lend itself to some

523
00:24:51,320 --> 00:24:53,640
Speaker 1: of the parlay betters who like to do those five

524
00:24:53,720 --> 00:24:57,040
Speaker 1: leg stacks of you know, Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, Jamiir

525
00:24:57,160 --> 00:24:59,760
Speaker 1: gives Josh Jacobs like you name it, the basically the

526
00:24:59,800 --> 00:25:04,080
Speaker 1: five best touchdown scores in the NFL. But now you're

527
00:25:04,080 --> 00:25:06,960
Speaker 1: starting to see some of those actually yield fruit, you know,

528
00:25:07,040 --> 00:25:09,600
Speaker 1: like that was over the last two seasons. The parlay

529
00:25:09,600 --> 00:25:14,280
Speaker 1: betters are seeing return on that. However, this is my

530
00:25:14,359 --> 00:25:18,919
Speaker 1: big pushback. It's not just cut and dry, right like

531
00:25:19,080 --> 00:25:21,720
Speaker 1: Derrick Henry. Let's talk about Derrick Henry, because he was

532
00:25:21,760 --> 00:25:24,440
Speaker 1: somebody who had minus odds in every game last year,

533
00:25:24,440 --> 00:25:27,160
Speaker 1: and he scored in thirteen of seventeen games. He's one

534
00:25:27,200 --> 00:25:29,760
Speaker 1: of two players him in Saque Barkley had minus ods

535
00:25:29,760 --> 00:25:32,680
Speaker 1: to score in every game. So you might have had

536
00:25:32,720 --> 00:25:35,640
Speaker 1: some successes using him as your anchor leg, for example,

537
00:25:35,680 --> 00:25:38,280
Speaker 1: on a four leg parlay. But if you bet him

538
00:25:38,320 --> 00:25:40,480
Speaker 1: on the weeks that he didn't score, like from week

539
00:25:40,520 --> 00:25:43,640
Speaker 1: twelve to week sixteen, you would have just gotten crushed

540
00:25:43,720 --> 00:25:46,239
Speaker 1: because look at the touchdown odds that he had for

541
00:25:46,280 --> 00:25:49,720
Speaker 1: these weeks. From week twelve minus two forty five, Week

542
00:25:49,760 --> 00:25:53,280
Speaker 1: thirteen minus two to fifteen, Week fifteen minus two to

543
00:25:53,359 --> 00:25:57,080
Speaker 1: ninety five. Those are high implied probabilities for an any

544
00:25:57,080 --> 00:26:00,000
Speaker 1: time touchdown, and your parlay is up in smoke because

545
00:26:00,280 --> 00:26:02,239
Speaker 1: Dereck Henry didn't fall into the end zone. And that

546
00:26:02,359 --> 00:26:04,600
Speaker 1: drives me crazy when I think of the parlay odds,

547
00:26:04,600 --> 00:26:08,760
Speaker 1: because when you bake a parlay like that, you think, well,

548
00:26:09,000 --> 00:26:10,919
Speaker 1: I don't have to worry about Dereck Henry not in

549
00:26:10,960 --> 00:26:13,320
Speaker 1: this game, no way, and then it doesn't work out.

550
00:26:13,400 --> 00:26:15,639
Speaker 1: And even then, when you look at the full season

551
00:26:15,720 --> 00:26:19,160
Speaker 1: scope of Derrick Henry from an anytime touchdown perspective, which

552
00:26:19,160 --> 00:26:20,840
Speaker 1: is part of the reason why I don't like betting

553
00:26:20,840 --> 00:26:23,040
Speaker 1: on minus odds, if you a bet one unit on

554
00:26:23,119 --> 00:26:26,400
Speaker 1: him for the entire season, because he played all seventeen games,

555
00:26:26,680 --> 00:26:29,480
Speaker 1: you only made plus two point eight units in profit. Now,

556
00:26:29,600 --> 00:26:31,159
Speaker 1: some people they might look at that and say, hey,

557
00:26:31,240 --> 00:26:34,520
Speaker 1: that's I like that ROI that's fine. But to put

558
00:26:34,520 --> 00:26:38,360
Speaker 1: that in perspective for any time touchdown profits in the NFL,

559
00:26:38,480 --> 00:26:42,320
Speaker 1: Derek Henry was one hundred and sixteenth overall, seventh place

560
00:26:42,720 --> 00:26:44,840
Speaker 1: just on his own team. So that means that in

561
00:26:44,880 --> 00:26:47,040
Speaker 1: a given week you could have had more value betting

562
00:26:47,040 --> 00:26:51,800
Speaker 1: on guys like Mark Andrews for Shan Bateman. There's just

563
00:26:51,840 --> 00:26:55,560
Speaker 1: so many different players, I say, A likely so to me,

564
00:26:55,840 --> 00:26:58,600
Speaker 1: there's just so much value elsewhere for touchdown scores that

565
00:26:58,640 --> 00:27:01,000
Speaker 1: I just find you don't want to get caught up

566
00:27:01,000 --> 00:27:04,360
Speaker 1: and betting favorites, especially when I'm putting probably a lot

567
00:27:04,359 --> 00:27:07,159
Speaker 1: more of a higher stake to offset the odds that

568
00:27:07,160 --> 00:27:09,280
Speaker 1: I'm getting at minus two forty five or minus two

569
00:27:09,359 --> 00:27:11,600
Speaker 1: ninety five, and then he's the one who lets you down.

570
00:27:11,640 --> 00:27:13,879
Speaker 1: It's just I've been burned by that so many times.

571
00:27:13,920 --> 00:27:17,199
Speaker 1: And I find if recreational betters and people who are

572
00:27:17,240 --> 00:27:18,879
Speaker 1: just kind of starting and wanting to have fun with this,

573
00:27:18,960 --> 00:27:21,159
Speaker 1: if they go in with this mindset that Dereck Henry

574
00:27:21,240 --> 00:27:23,320
Speaker 1: is going to be the lack of the week. I

575
00:27:23,400 --> 00:27:25,800
Speaker 1: got a bridge to sell you like. It's just it's

576
00:27:25,840 --> 00:27:28,600
Speaker 1: not something that is cut and dry.

577
00:27:28,640 --> 00:27:32,119
Speaker 2: It's definitely not. I think there's something to the fact

578
00:27:32,119 --> 00:27:35,040
Speaker 2: that each time it depends the type of better you are.

579
00:27:35,200 --> 00:27:37,639
Speaker 2: Each time you bet a touchdown score, it should be

580
00:27:37,720 --> 00:27:39,760
Speaker 2: like you're betting a point spread. It's you know, what

581
00:27:39,840 --> 00:27:42,000
Speaker 2: do you have the game at? What do you have

582
00:27:42,080 --> 00:27:45,560
Speaker 2: the touchdown odds at? If it doesn't match, don't bet it.

583
00:27:45,840 --> 00:27:47,879
Speaker 2: And it probably should be the same way in terms

584
00:27:47,880 --> 00:27:51,000
Speaker 2: of putting that player in your parlay or you know,

585
00:27:51,040 --> 00:27:53,199
Speaker 2: however it ends up working. Now, if you want to

586
00:27:53,520 --> 00:27:55,639
Speaker 2: have fun and put in a five dollars bet with

587
00:27:55,680 --> 00:27:58,920
Speaker 2: a bunch of touchdown scores. Yeah, Derrick Henry at least

588
00:27:59,200 --> 00:28:01,200
Speaker 2: the version of him last year is most likely going

589
00:28:01,200 --> 00:28:02,359
Speaker 2: to be in there because you're going to make that

590
00:28:02,359 --> 00:28:06,119
Speaker 2: assumption that he's going to score. So that that's I

591
00:28:06,160 --> 00:28:08,520
Speaker 2: think it works both ways based off of just kind

592
00:28:08,560 --> 00:28:12,040
Speaker 2: of how you're approaching this. My one, uh so out

593
00:28:12,040 --> 00:28:13,800
Speaker 2: of all the statue kind of just gave us in

594
00:28:13,880 --> 00:28:17,720
Speaker 2: terms of minus odds touchdown scores. To me, almost twenty

595
00:28:17,760 --> 00:28:21,280
Speaker 2: players being minus odds on a given week, I think

596
00:28:21,400 --> 00:28:24,080
Speaker 2: is something that just keeps lighting in my head. As

597
00:28:24,240 --> 00:28:26,840
Speaker 2: as we've talked about the books kind of moving one

598
00:28:26,880 --> 00:28:30,240
Speaker 2: direction in terms of maybe juicing some of the stuff

599
00:28:30,280 --> 00:28:32,919
Speaker 2: that people tend to like more, that to me is

600
00:28:33,000 --> 00:28:35,000
Speaker 2: just going to go up. Like you have three hundred

601
00:28:35,040 --> 00:28:38,080
Speaker 2: and forty players in twenty four who were minus when

602
00:28:38,120 --> 00:28:40,880
Speaker 2: you had two forty five the year before. And I

603
00:28:40,920 --> 00:28:44,400
Speaker 2: think those numbers and what they project to be potentially

604
00:28:44,400 --> 00:28:47,600
Speaker 2: in twenty twenty five, which you know, I could see

605
00:28:47,640 --> 00:28:49,600
Speaker 2: it getting to twenty. I could see it getting to

606
00:28:49,680 --> 00:28:52,800
Speaker 2: four hundred plus in a given season. So I think,

607
00:28:53,240 --> 00:28:55,880
Speaker 2: to me, at least it makes me want to look

608
00:28:55,920 --> 00:28:58,280
Speaker 2: at the two hundreds, the plus two hundreds, the plus

609
00:28:58,280 --> 00:29:01,680
Speaker 2: three hundreds, and the plus four hundreds as being kind

610
00:29:01,720 --> 00:29:05,600
Speaker 2: of the forgotten bunch, like the tight end on some teams,

611
00:29:05,720 --> 00:29:08,800
Speaker 2: the second or third wide receivers, Like I do feel

612
00:29:08,800 --> 00:29:13,640
Speaker 2: like there is value because we're getting so much juicier

613
00:29:14,200 --> 00:29:17,640
Speaker 2: on these expected touchdown scores at the top of the board.

614
00:29:18,000 --> 00:29:19,120
Speaker 2: That's my opinion.

615
00:29:19,400 --> 00:29:22,760
Speaker 1: Well, and I find the one big takeaway, like you mentioned,

616
00:29:22,800 --> 00:29:25,040
Speaker 1: it went from two forty five to three forty year

617
00:29:25,080 --> 00:29:27,880
Speaker 1: over year. The fact that the win percentage did not

618
00:29:28,280 --> 00:29:33,840
Speaker 1: really drop that much, only about two percent throughout the season,

619
00:29:34,120 --> 00:29:37,320
Speaker 1: is just very indicative of the fact that And then

620
00:29:37,360 --> 00:29:39,280
Speaker 1: the other thing too, Evan, think about what we've talked

621
00:29:39,280 --> 00:29:42,400
Speaker 1: about over the last few years about how touchdown projection

622
00:29:42,760 --> 00:29:45,760
Speaker 1: production in general has just remember twenty twenty two where

623
00:29:45,760 --> 00:29:48,200
Speaker 1: it just dropped off a cliff like as far as

624
00:29:48,280 --> 00:29:50,720
Speaker 1: how many touchdowns were scored in a given season, and

625
00:29:50,720 --> 00:29:52,680
Speaker 1: then twenty twenty three, twenty twenty four, we started to

626
00:29:52,680 --> 00:29:55,239
Speaker 1: see a little bit of a rebound last year, but

627
00:29:55,400 --> 00:29:57,960
Speaker 1: it just in general, if we're looking at the heyday

628
00:29:58,000 --> 00:30:01,080
Speaker 1: of twenty nineteen and twenty twenty where scoring was just

629
00:30:01,960 --> 00:30:06,120
Speaker 1: crazy across the board, it's a different NFL now, and

630
00:30:06,320 --> 00:30:09,000
Speaker 1: it's different on that mindset of just the touchdowns just

631
00:30:09,080 --> 00:30:12,200
Speaker 1: aren't as plentiful and the minus odds guys are hitting

632
00:30:12,200 --> 00:30:15,320
Speaker 1: at a higher rate. So that's something to adjust to,

633
00:30:15,360 --> 00:30:18,360
Speaker 1: something to keep in mind, especially when you're making your bets.

634
00:30:18,080 --> 00:30:20,920
Speaker 2: On a given week without a doubt. So we're going

635
00:30:21,000 --> 00:30:24,680
Speaker 2: to get into another section in a second. But football

636
00:30:24,720 --> 00:30:27,880
Speaker 2: season is here, and we've got some huge improvements and

637
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638
00:30:31,800 --> 00:30:34,320
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639
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Speaker 2: Action Network Pro you get real time pick alerts from

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649
00:31:13,040 --> 00:31:16,480
Speaker 2: for twenty dollars off the annual price of Action Pro

650
00:31:16,960 --> 00:31:19,520
Speaker 2: and I'll be in the app Chills in the app,

651
00:31:19,960 --> 00:31:23,720
Speaker 2: Sean Kerner, Raybond, Brandon all of us in the app

652
00:31:23,760 --> 00:31:26,480
Speaker 2: for football season. Basketball season coming up right after that,

653
00:31:26,600 --> 00:31:31,720
Speaker 2: so check it out. Pod twenty Actionnework dot Com Slash Pro.

654
00:31:32,240 --> 00:31:35,240
Speaker 2: All right, Chill. So we talked about the minus ods,

655
00:31:35,280 --> 00:31:38,880
Speaker 2: We've talked about the data. We've got our three commandments

656
00:31:38,920 --> 00:31:43,040
Speaker 2: off the top. So now we've got profits, which I

657
00:31:43,040 --> 00:31:46,200
Speaker 2: think going through some of these players, some of the

658
00:31:46,240 --> 00:31:48,800
Speaker 2: players that have floated to the top, all I want

659
00:31:48,840 --> 00:31:51,040
Speaker 2: to say is, before we get into this conversation, I

660
00:31:51,040 --> 00:31:53,440
Speaker 2: think it's smart to remind people that this category is

661
00:31:53,520 --> 00:31:56,320
Speaker 2: much more about the price than actually getting into the

662
00:31:56,400 --> 00:31:59,680
Speaker 2: end zone. Like some of these guys just based off

663
00:31:59,720 --> 00:32:01,560
Speaker 2: of you know, are you going to put one hundred

664
00:32:01,640 --> 00:32:05,040
Speaker 2: dollars on a player for seventeen weeks and if he

665
00:32:05,080 --> 00:32:07,360
Speaker 2: scores two or three of those weeks, you end up

666
00:32:07,400 --> 00:32:10,000
Speaker 2: being profitable. It's a way to bet, but it's also

667
00:32:10,120 --> 00:32:12,680
Speaker 2: you know, trying to sometimes catch a falling dagger. So

668
00:32:13,000 --> 00:32:15,600
Speaker 2: I'll let you start off here and we'll have some

669
00:32:15,680 --> 00:32:16,080
Speaker 2: fun with this.

670
00:32:16,560 --> 00:32:19,520
Speaker 1: Well, the guy who was the falling dagger of the year,

671
00:32:19,720 --> 00:32:23,200
Speaker 1: was definitely a Titans tight end, of course, because they're

672
00:32:23,240 --> 00:32:25,880
Speaker 1: always at like twenty to one to score, and one

673
00:32:25,880 --> 00:32:28,920
Speaker 1: guy who scored three times last year, Nick Vnette, if

674
00:32:28,920 --> 00:32:31,560
Speaker 1: you had just taken him every week, you were seeing

675
00:32:31,600 --> 00:32:34,080
Speaker 1: prices of twenty eight to one, twenty two to one.

676
00:32:34,880 --> 00:32:38,240
Speaker 1: He finished at fifty one units in profit, the most

677
00:32:38,320 --> 00:32:42,800
Speaker 1: profitable player, and which is wild to me because his teammate,

678
00:32:42,960 --> 00:32:46,160
Speaker 1: in my opinion, was the MVP of the anytime touchdown

679
00:32:46,240 --> 00:32:49,959
Speaker 1: market last year, and he still finished about ten units

680
00:32:50,040 --> 00:32:54,080
Speaker 1: less in profit. And that was actually Nick Westbrook akenye,

681
00:32:54,200 --> 00:32:57,880
Speaker 1: who What always ends up happening in the offseason is

682
00:32:57,920 --> 00:33:01,200
Speaker 1: like I'll be looking at players'll be looking at rosters

683
00:33:01,200 --> 00:33:03,520
Speaker 1: and matchups, and then I'll look at the touchdown odds

684
00:33:03,760 --> 00:33:05,040
Speaker 1: and I'll look at the Titans and I was like,

685
00:33:05,080 --> 00:33:07,160
Speaker 1: wait a minute, where did Nick west rokine go like

686
00:33:07,280 --> 00:33:09,160
Speaker 1: just like something, just like a third receiver where I

687
00:33:09,200 --> 00:33:11,200
Speaker 1: just forgot that he moved on. And now I'm like,

688
00:33:11,240 --> 00:33:14,040
Speaker 1: oh crap, he's with the Dolphins, Oh my gosh, and

689
00:33:14,080 --> 00:33:16,040
Speaker 1: he's playing the Colts in Week one, a team that

690
00:33:16,040 --> 00:33:19,360
Speaker 1: he scored on both times last year. So Nick Westbrook

691
00:33:19,400 --> 00:33:23,880
Speaker 1: aknye only thirty two catches on the year, and he's

692
00:33:23,920 --> 00:33:26,239
Speaker 1: scored an eight of seventeen games. He had a two

693
00:33:26,320 --> 00:33:29,400
Speaker 1: touchdown game as well, which again just put his profits

694
00:33:29,440 --> 00:33:32,120
Speaker 1: through the roof. But he was also one of two

695
00:33:32,160 --> 00:33:34,720
Speaker 1: players Evan to rank in the top twenty in both

696
00:33:34,760 --> 00:33:38,480
Speaker 1: profits for the anytime touchdown market and the first touchdown market,

697
00:33:38,600 --> 00:33:41,320
Speaker 1: which again I'm very interested to see how he's going

698
00:33:41,360 --> 00:33:44,520
Speaker 1: to be used in this Dolphins offense, given that Tyreek

699
00:33:44,600 --> 00:33:46,680
Speaker 1: Hill and Jalen wattall are in the best shapes of

700
00:33:46,720 --> 00:33:49,600
Speaker 1: their lives as they always are. And you know, so

701
00:33:50,000 --> 00:33:52,080
Speaker 1: we're going to Week one and we're gonna be playing

702
00:33:52,120 --> 00:33:55,040
Speaker 1: against the Colts, and he scored on them both times

703
00:33:55,080 --> 00:33:57,480
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty four. I'm already seeing them around plus

704
00:33:57,480 --> 00:33:59,680
Speaker 1: four hundred to score it again. So they're very much

705
00:33:59,680 --> 00:34:02,080
Speaker 1: giving him the same treatment as last year. But one

706
00:34:02,120 --> 00:34:04,920
Speaker 1: thing that was funny about NWI as the season, like

707
00:34:05,520 --> 00:34:08,440
Speaker 1: sportsbooks weren't really ready to budge on that. Like, remember

708
00:34:08,440 --> 00:34:10,280
Speaker 1: when he was first starting to hit, he was around

709
00:34:10,320 --> 00:34:12,640
Speaker 1: five to one, maybe even plus four fifty, and then

710
00:34:12,680 --> 00:34:16,200
Speaker 1: by the time he had a five touchdown game streak,

711
00:34:16,760 --> 00:34:19,440
Speaker 1: they finally put it around like plus three hundred, and

712
00:34:19,480 --> 00:34:21,719
Speaker 1: then he still scores again. So that's one of those

713
00:34:21,760 --> 00:34:24,360
Speaker 1: players where I would have stopped betting him by the

714
00:34:24,400 --> 00:34:26,239
Speaker 1: time we got to week nine or week ten, where

715
00:34:26,239 --> 00:34:28,240
Speaker 1: it was just like, okay, like this guy's been priced

716
00:34:28,239 --> 00:34:32,400
Speaker 1: out and he's still producing. So to me, Nick Westbrookkine

717
00:34:32,600 --> 00:34:37,600
Speaker 1: was the anytime touchdown MVP of last season. Now, of course,

718
00:34:37,719 --> 00:34:40,000
Speaker 1: quarterback touchdown markets. I always loved to look at that.

719
00:34:40,040 --> 00:34:43,320
Speaker 1: The year before, it was Josh Allen who led the

720
00:34:43,719 --> 00:34:48,200
Speaker 1: NFL and quarterback anytime touchdown profits. This actually surprised me.

721
00:34:48,600 --> 00:34:52,160
Speaker 1: The guy who ended up leading the profits for quarterbacks

722
00:34:52,640 --> 00:34:55,800
Speaker 1: was Bryce Young with the Carolina Panthers at plus eighteen

723
00:34:55,840 --> 00:34:59,080
Speaker 1: and a half units. He scored in five of fourteen games,

724
00:34:59,080 --> 00:35:02,959
Speaker 1: and we kind of, I think, forget that opening month

725
00:35:03,000 --> 00:35:05,840
Speaker 1: of the Panther season where they were just got awful

726
00:35:06,320 --> 00:35:08,480
Speaker 1: and he got benched, you know what I mean. So

727
00:35:09,320 --> 00:35:11,640
Speaker 1: coming back, I don't think a lot of people really

728
00:35:11,680 --> 00:35:15,359
Speaker 1: expecting much from him, But I mean, he's had some

729
00:35:15,360 --> 00:35:17,280
Speaker 1: pretty big hits throughout the year. He had a plus

730
00:35:17,280 --> 00:35:19,760
Speaker 1: four hundred start the year, he had Week fourteen versus

731
00:35:19,800 --> 00:35:22,680
Speaker 1: Cowboys a plus seven to fifty. Actually scored five of

732
00:35:22,760 --> 00:35:25,240
Speaker 1: his six touchdowns over the last six games of the season,

733
00:35:25,280 --> 00:35:28,000
Speaker 1: which could be very interesting to see if that carries

734
00:35:28,040 --> 00:35:31,640
Speaker 1: over to the new season. So right now, I'm hoping

735
00:35:31,680 --> 00:35:33,799
Speaker 1: to get odds of maybe plus four to fifty or better,

736
00:35:33,880 --> 00:35:36,160
Speaker 1: especially if they're playing the Jags and One who do

737
00:35:36,160 --> 00:35:38,440
Speaker 1: play a lot of man coverage, which would open up

738
00:35:38,520 --> 00:35:43,320
Speaker 1: more scrambling opportunities. But Bryce Young to me is upward

739
00:35:43,520 --> 00:35:46,960
Speaker 1: arrow right now for quarterbacks, just because I find a

740
00:35:47,000 --> 00:35:49,640
Speaker 1: lot of the pocket guys like a Joe Burrow or

741
00:35:49,760 --> 00:35:53,160
Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes, they have the ability, they just don't bother

742
00:35:53,320 --> 00:35:57,200
Speaker 1: doing it and they're always over like they're very priced

743
00:35:57,320 --> 00:35:59,200
Speaker 1: to the point where they're going to score a touchdown,

744
00:35:59,200 --> 00:36:01,719
Speaker 1: and those just not that's not their playing style. So

745
00:36:02,280 --> 00:36:04,080
Speaker 1: whereas Bryce Young, I think that's kind of what he

746
00:36:04,120 --> 00:36:06,080
Speaker 1: has to depend on a little bit because their offense

747
00:36:06,160 --> 00:36:08,200
Speaker 1: was struggling last year. I think there's going to struggle

748
00:36:08,239 --> 00:36:10,320
Speaker 1: a little bit again this year. So I think Bryce

749
00:36:10,360 --> 00:36:12,640
Speaker 1: Young is a good candidate to score some rushing touchdowns

750
00:36:12,680 --> 00:36:13,600
Speaker 1: earlier in the season.

751
00:36:14,280 --> 00:36:16,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, let's go one by one here. So I think

752
00:36:16,080 --> 00:36:19,400
Speaker 2: the NWI stuff with Miami is kind of funny because

753
00:36:19,400 --> 00:36:22,560
Speaker 2: you just assume that tyree kor Waddell will have no touchdowns,

754
00:36:22,760 --> 00:36:24,440
Speaker 2: you know, through a few weeks and he'll have like

755
00:36:24,560 --> 00:36:28,440
Speaker 2: three and he'll be vaulturing stuff. So you know something's

756
00:36:28,480 --> 00:36:30,520
Speaker 2: in the works there because I believe he'll be the

757
00:36:30,520 --> 00:36:33,080
Speaker 2: third option at least from a wide receiver point of view.

758
00:36:33,200 --> 00:36:35,040
Speaker 1: And it's not like those two are pictures of perfect

759
00:36:35,040 --> 00:36:37,480
Speaker 1: health either, Ryeah, So you know we could see them

760
00:36:37,520 --> 00:36:40,520
Speaker 1: play the time and he gets elevated in his role.

761
00:36:40,640 --> 00:36:43,040
Speaker 2: And I think Bryce Young is scrambling and we talked

762
00:36:43,040 --> 00:36:45,279
Speaker 2: about this a lot on the pod. Last year kind

763
00:36:45,320 --> 00:36:47,320
Speaker 2: of led to their success more or less in the

764
00:36:47,360 --> 00:36:49,960
Speaker 2: second half, Like after he came back from benching, I

765
00:36:50,000 --> 00:36:51,840
Speaker 2: think he kind of realized that he needed to be

766
00:36:51,880 --> 00:36:55,839
Speaker 2: a little bit of a dual versatility quarterback in that sense,

767
00:36:55,880 --> 00:36:57,840
Speaker 2: and I think it really helped him in that offense.

768
00:36:57,880 --> 00:37:01,320
Speaker 2: So I think he'll be intrigue to see if that continues.

769
00:37:01,320 --> 00:37:03,280
Speaker 2: And the other guy from a quarterback point of view,

770
00:37:03,440 --> 00:37:05,160
Speaker 2: I know you've looked his way, but he was hurt

771
00:37:05,200 --> 00:37:06,960
Speaker 2: a lot of last year. Would be Trevor Lawrence as

772
00:37:06,960 --> 00:37:10,759
Speaker 2: well in Kasville, because I think his odds when he

773
00:37:10,960 --> 00:37:13,719
Speaker 2: was at his peak were kind of dipping down because

774
00:37:13,760 --> 00:37:15,839
Speaker 2: he was such a runner when it came to the

775
00:37:15,840 --> 00:37:18,440
Speaker 2: red zone, I feel like, and I think his injury

776
00:37:18,800 --> 00:37:20,839
Speaker 2: maybe those odds will spike up a little bit again.

777
00:37:20,880 --> 00:37:24,960
Speaker 2: But he definitely tends to run in certain circumstances, so

778
00:37:25,040 --> 00:37:28,120
Speaker 2: that'll be intriguing, especially week one. Maybe they go against

779
00:37:28,120 --> 00:37:30,480
Speaker 2: each other and we get maybe like a parlay in

780
00:37:30,520 --> 00:37:31,320
Speaker 2: there something.

781
00:37:31,040 --> 00:37:34,080
Speaker 1: Well, and it's not like the Panthers run defenses improved

782
00:37:34,080 --> 00:37:36,279
Speaker 1: that much and they were that's fearful last year too,

783
00:37:36,400 --> 00:37:39,279
Speaker 1: so it would be a very ideal matchup for him.

784
00:37:40,040 --> 00:37:42,160
Speaker 1: The thing about Trevor Lawrence, which is just interesting, and

785
00:37:42,239 --> 00:37:44,560
Speaker 1: really it was that whole offense last year with Doug Peterson,

786
00:37:44,600 --> 00:37:46,520
Speaker 1: is that could really figure out the run game at all,

787
00:37:46,560 --> 00:37:50,680
Speaker 1: and they were just offensively very limited in what they

788
00:37:50,719 --> 00:37:53,160
Speaker 1: could do despite having what was told to be a

789
00:37:53,200 --> 00:37:59,040
Speaker 1: generational quarterback. Right, So I think with that offense, Trevor Lawrence,

790
00:37:59,040 --> 00:38:00,719
Speaker 1: in my opinion, depending on the matchup, like if we're

791
00:38:00,760 --> 00:38:03,320
Speaker 1: just using week one, should probably be around plus three hundred.

792
00:38:03,360 --> 00:38:06,279
Speaker 1: But the thing is, given the circumstance, given that they're

793
00:38:06,280 --> 00:38:08,640
Speaker 1: playing the Panthers, it would not shock me if we

794
00:38:08,680 --> 00:38:10,719
Speaker 1: see around plus two to twenty, which is just kind

795
00:38:10,760 --> 00:38:12,280
Speaker 1: of below my wheelhouse of value.

796
00:38:12,280 --> 00:38:13,520
Speaker 2: On that right now.

797
00:38:14,160 --> 00:38:16,840
Speaker 1: But yeah, no. But at the same time, just like

798
00:38:16,880 --> 00:38:19,360
Speaker 1: Burrow Mahome, like a lot of these quarterbacks that were like,

799
00:38:19,360 --> 00:38:21,520
Speaker 1: you know, six, like they have the ability to be

800
00:38:21,560 --> 00:38:23,320
Speaker 1: able to scramble. It's just a lot of the time

801
00:38:24,040 --> 00:38:26,359
Speaker 1: they're just maybe too clumsy, maybe they just don't want

802
00:38:26,360 --> 00:38:28,359
Speaker 1: to bother at doing it. But if we could get

803
00:38:28,400 --> 00:38:30,360
Speaker 1: more Jalen Hurts in the world, maybe we'd have a

804
00:38:30,360 --> 00:38:32,360
Speaker 1: lot more fun betting quarterback touchdown props.

805
00:38:32,719 --> 00:38:36,120
Speaker 2: I know you love yourself a good yeah, quarterback touchdown prop,

806
00:38:36,160 --> 00:38:38,319
Speaker 2: which is why I brought it up. But let's talk

807
00:38:38,320 --> 00:38:41,880
Speaker 2: about week one now, because these are all the matchups

808
00:38:41,920 --> 00:38:43,920
Speaker 2: are out there. I think we have touchdown props for

809
00:38:44,080 --> 00:38:47,440
Speaker 2: some books, so it's a little scarce at the moment.

810
00:38:47,960 --> 00:38:51,000
Speaker 2: But I know you have some early leans and some

811
00:38:51,080 --> 00:38:54,319
Speaker 2: bets here, So why don't you tell the listeners not

812
00:38:54,400 --> 00:38:56,759
Speaker 2: only the player, but if he's changed teams, what team

813
00:38:56,760 --> 00:38:58,320
Speaker 2: he's on. You know, a little bit of a recapper

814
00:38:58,360 --> 00:38:59,399
Speaker 2: here for sure.

815
00:38:59,480 --> 00:39:02,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, So, well, my early touchdown leans for week one,

816
00:39:02,960 --> 00:39:05,200
Speaker 1: we've already talked about Jake Ferguson off the top. That's

817
00:39:05,239 --> 00:39:08,040
Speaker 1: more of an opener primetime game, but just from week

818
00:39:08,080 --> 00:39:11,120
Speaker 1: one the Sunday games. I'm going back to that Panthers

819
00:39:11,520 --> 00:39:14,319
Speaker 1: Jaguars game. I love Adam Thielen in this game. He's

820
00:39:14,520 --> 00:39:17,239
Speaker 1: especially at odds over plus three hundred. The guys that

821
00:39:17,280 --> 00:39:19,400
Speaker 1: we talked about that are maybe kind of getting forgotten,

822
00:39:19,560 --> 00:39:21,239
Speaker 1: you know, in that range of plus two hundred to

823
00:39:21,280 --> 00:39:24,160
Speaker 1: plus four hundred, because I mean, he led the Panthers

824
00:39:24,160 --> 00:39:26,360
Speaker 1: in targets per game in the second half of the season.

825
00:39:26,640 --> 00:39:30,120
Speaker 1: Right now, they're pricing the Panthers as if Ted McMillan

826
00:39:30,200 --> 00:39:32,040
Speaker 1: is going to come in and be Jamar Chase like

827
00:39:32,080 --> 00:39:35,760
Speaker 1: he's around plus one forty to score. And Adam deelin

828
00:39:35,840 --> 00:39:38,279
Speaker 1: has been the most trusted target for Bryce Young in

829
00:39:38,320 --> 00:39:41,320
Speaker 1: his career as a Panther. So I love Adam feeling

830
00:39:41,360 --> 00:39:44,879
Speaker 1: at plus three ten against that Jags defense, especially if

831
00:39:44,960 --> 00:39:47,719
Speaker 1: they if their defense does carry over some of their

832
00:39:47,760 --> 00:39:49,680
Speaker 1: tendencies from last year where they were the number one

833
00:39:49,680 --> 00:39:52,720
Speaker 1: team in man coverage and Adam Deelon led the Panthers

834
00:39:52,719 --> 00:39:55,200
Speaker 1: and yards for ret run against man coverage last season.

835
00:39:56,400 --> 00:39:58,160
Speaker 2: I like feeling. I was looking at some of the

836
00:39:58,200 --> 00:40:01,160
Speaker 2: tight ends there. I was con entering Sanders. I'm a

837
00:40:01,160 --> 00:40:05,000
Speaker 2: big Sanders guy in Carolina, but obviously they have Tremble.

838
00:40:05,080 --> 00:40:07,919
Speaker 2: I think Tremble might be injured at the moment which

839
00:40:07,920 --> 00:40:10,600
Speaker 2: I'm looking at it, So maybe maybe I like Sanders

840
00:40:10,640 --> 00:40:12,919
Speaker 2: at some long odds. But I do think that game

841
00:40:13,200 --> 00:40:15,759
Speaker 2: will be a little uh. I think it could be

842
00:40:15,840 --> 00:40:17,880
Speaker 2: high scoring. So I kind of like feeling in that spot.

843
00:40:17,880 --> 00:40:20,799
Speaker 2: And yeah, McMillan, it's one sixty five and even when

844
00:40:20,800 --> 00:40:22,680
Speaker 2: we get closer to kick, if it's down to plus

845
00:40:22,719 --> 00:40:25,320
Speaker 2: one fifty range, I think it's just a little short.

846
00:40:25,360 --> 00:40:28,000
Speaker 2: And I am I'm a big McMillan fan, and all

847
00:40:28,000 --> 00:40:30,799
Speaker 2: the pods we were doing around the draft, I liked

848
00:40:30,880 --> 00:40:33,360
Speaker 2: him in that spot. I know other people kind of

849
00:40:33,440 --> 00:40:36,000
Speaker 2: questioned it, but yeah, one fifty one sixty five seems

850
00:40:36,000 --> 00:40:38,520
Speaker 2: a little short, just a little bit, just a tad

851
00:40:38,680 --> 00:40:39,600
Speaker 2: who's your second bet?

852
00:40:40,640 --> 00:40:43,520
Speaker 1: So I went to that Rams offense. You wanted to

853
00:40:43,520 --> 00:40:45,279
Speaker 1: talk about that tight end that you try to find

854
00:40:45,320 --> 00:40:48,000
Speaker 1: at three to one or better. Tyler Higby, to me,

855
00:40:48,080 --> 00:40:51,200
Speaker 1: I think is going to be very instrumental in this

856
00:40:51,320 --> 00:40:54,960
Speaker 1: Rams offense this series, and Sean McVay has shown that

857
00:40:55,400 --> 00:40:59,359
Speaker 1: when Tyler Higby is healthy, he does get consistent use

858
00:40:59,480 --> 00:41:02,279
Speaker 1: in this offense. Last year he scored three touchdowns of

859
00:41:02,360 --> 00:41:05,080
Speaker 1: five games coming back one in the playoffs. He's a

860
00:41:06,080 --> 00:41:09,760
Speaker 1: year another year removed recovered from that ACL injury as well.

861
00:41:10,320 --> 00:41:12,480
Speaker 1: So I think Tyler Higbee, especially with the fact that

862
00:41:12,520 --> 00:41:16,000
Speaker 1: you got Puka and Davonte Adams on either side and

863
00:41:16,080 --> 00:41:18,720
Speaker 1: Kyraen Williams in the backfield. The fact that we're getting

864
00:41:18,760 --> 00:41:21,040
Speaker 1: Higbee around three to one in this offense that I

865
00:41:21,080 --> 00:41:23,080
Speaker 1: have is, in my opinion, I think is going to

866
00:41:23,120 --> 00:41:25,800
Speaker 1: be a top five offense if Matthew Stafford is healthy.

867
00:41:26,320 --> 00:41:29,200
Speaker 1: I love Tyler Higbee at this price at plus three ten.

868
00:41:29,760 --> 00:41:32,600
Speaker 2: Always scared about Colby Parkinson, but I agree. I like

869
00:41:32,640 --> 00:41:35,719
Speaker 2: the tight end spot, especially with the Stafford tends to

870
00:41:35,760 --> 00:41:38,160
Speaker 2: look there. He likes that in the red zone, so

871
00:41:38,480 --> 00:41:40,440
Speaker 2: I definitely see that as an option.

872
00:41:41,040 --> 00:41:43,200
Speaker 1: I was a little worried about Colby myself because I

873
00:41:43,239 --> 00:41:45,440
Speaker 1: did look up to see kind of what his snapcounts were.

874
00:41:45,680 --> 00:41:48,120
Speaker 1: Did he play? I know, but we felt the same way.

875
00:41:48,160 --> 00:41:50,319
Speaker 1: I was like, I don't know, is Colby getting red

876
00:41:50,400 --> 00:41:52,400
Speaker 1: zone targets? He plays? And one thing I noticed is

877
00:41:52,400 --> 00:41:55,560
Speaker 1: that his production and his snapcounts just completely dropped off

878
00:41:55,560 --> 00:41:58,040
Speaker 1: a cliff when they came back. So I'm hoping that

879
00:41:58,040 --> 00:41:59,960
Speaker 1: that is the case when we go into Week one.

880
00:42:00,840 --> 00:42:02,920
Speaker 2: I love your third bet here, so I kind of

881
00:42:02,960 --> 00:42:05,680
Speaker 2: have to have you start on this right away because

882
00:42:05,680 --> 00:42:08,239
Speaker 2: this is such as you go at special So.

883
00:42:08,400 --> 00:42:11,959
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's so we're gonna go to the Titans Broncos game.

884
00:42:12,520 --> 00:42:15,600
Speaker 1: I love cam Ward to score a touchdown. Obviously in

885
00:42:15,640 --> 00:42:18,360
Speaker 1: his college career that wasn't really his bag. But again

886
00:42:18,760 --> 00:42:21,960
Speaker 1: in this offense, with the receiving options that he's going

887
00:42:22,040 --> 00:42:24,840
Speaker 1: to have, I think he's going to have to scramble more.

888
00:42:24,960 --> 00:42:27,400
Speaker 1: And when you're playing against a defense like the Broncos

889
00:42:27,400 --> 00:42:30,399
Speaker 1: who tend to play more man coverage Patrick's retain back there,

890
00:42:30,880 --> 00:42:33,680
Speaker 1: that tends to open up more scrambles for quarterbacks. And

891
00:42:33,760 --> 00:42:35,719
Speaker 1: as a result, you know, even last year we saw

892
00:42:35,760 --> 00:42:39,000
Speaker 1: the Broncos their edge rushers second in pressure rate. So

893
00:42:39,239 --> 00:42:41,840
Speaker 1: that's in my opinion, going to lead to more intended

894
00:42:41,880 --> 00:42:45,200
Speaker 1: passes that have to them become scrambles. Now, if cam

895
00:42:45,239 --> 00:42:47,160
Speaker 1: Ward scores, I'm not saying it's going to be the

896
00:42:47,200 --> 00:42:49,080
Speaker 1: opening touchdown of the game or that it's going to

897
00:42:49,120 --> 00:42:52,719
Speaker 1: be a winning touchdown, But in my opinion, where I

898
00:42:52,760 --> 00:42:55,440
Speaker 1: see this happening is probably in the second half where

899
00:42:55,480 --> 00:42:57,760
Speaker 1: they're already down, like you know, twenty eight to seven,

900
00:42:57,800 --> 00:43:00,759
Speaker 1: and then he's more garbage time than anything. But at

901
00:43:00,760 --> 00:43:03,160
Speaker 1: plus three forty, I think this is similar to the

902
00:43:03,239 --> 00:43:05,880
Speaker 1: Jade and Daniels situation that we saw last year, where

903
00:43:06,160 --> 00:43:08,680
Speaker 1: he was being priced around plus two hundred to score

904
00:43:08,960 --> 00:43:11,240
Speaker 1: twenty two to one for two touchdowns last year against

905
00:43:11,239 --> 00:43:14,200
Speaker 1: the Broncos apartment in the Bunk Buccaneers in Week one

906
00:43:14,320 --> 00:43:16,600
Speaker 1: last year. And part of my reasoning of why I

907
00:43:16,600 --> 00:43:18,640
Speaker 1: said you should get him now is because if he

908
00:43:18,680 --> 00:43:21,479
Speaker 1: does score, you're never going to see that price again.

909
00:43:21,520 --> 00:43:23,640
Speaker 1: And I was right. You did not see his odds

910
00:43:23,680 --> 00:43:25,800
Speaker 1: over two to one to score in any time touchdown

911
00:43:25,840 --> 00:43:28,360
Speaker 1: the rest of the year, and for two touchdowns you

912
00:43:28,440 --> 00:43:31,920
Speaker 1: might saw twelve to one at best. So kind of

913
00:43:32,120 --> 00:43:34,760
Speaker 1: more trying to get ahead of the market. And cam Ward,

914
00:43:34,800 --> 00:43:36,600
Speaker 1: given that he's the number one overall pick, I'm not

915
00:43:36,640 --> 00:43:38,719
Speaker 1: really worried about him getting benched or anything like that.

916
00:43:38,800 --> 00:43:41,600
Speaker 1: So especially now Will Levis is out for the year,

917
00:43:41,719 --> 00:43:44,600
Speaker 1: So cam Ward at plus three forty, so a little

918
00:43:44,640 --> 00:43:47,600
Speaker 1: three pack of plus three hundreds to get us started

919
00:43:47,640 --> 00:43:48,240
Speaker 1: for Week.

920
00:43:48,040 --> 00:43:51,080
Speaker 2: One would be scared about, maybe like they don't want

921
00:43:51,080 --> 00:43:53,399
Speaker 2: to put him in the line of fire early on.

922
00:43:53,600 --> 00:43:56,120
Speaker 2: But I mean, aside from that, he's a kid, they're not,

923
00:43:56,400 --> 00:43:59,240
Speaker 2: you know, expected to be great. Let him run. Also,

924
00:43:59,320 --> 00:44:02,800
Speaker 2: running backs of Tony Pollard and Tajy Spears don't exactly

925
00:44:02,840 --> 00:44:05,279
Speaker 2: get me all scared that the running backs are going

926
00:44:05,360 --> 00:44:09,400
Speaker 2: to ultra touchdowns. So I think it's a decent outlook

927
00:44:09,440 --> 00:44:12,480
Speaker 2: on it, and I think there are some things we

928
00:44:12,520 --> 00:44:15,879
Speaker 2: don't really know going into the season, which I think

929
00:44:15,920 --> 00:44:20,120
Speaker 2: sometimes when there's a questions, it leads to value when

930
00:44:20,160 --> 00:44:22,880
Speaker 2: you predict correctly.

931
00:44:22,800 --> 00:44:25,319
Speaker 1: Absolutely getting ahead of the market like that when there's

932
00:44:25,320 --> 00:44:27,880
Speaker 1: still questions up in the air is typically where you

933
00:44:27,880 --> 00:44:30,160
Speaker 1: could find a lot more value in touchdown props than not.

934
00:44:30,960 --> 00:44:32,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean you're kind of going on on an

935
00:44:32,719 --> 00:44:34,600
Speaker 2: edge here. I mean, we don't know much about what

936
00:44:34,640 --> 00:44:37,400
Speaker 2: Ward'll look like in this offense in the pros. You know,

937
00:44:37,480 --> 00:44:40,640
Speaker 2: college is a different game. But given you know his

938
00:44:40,719 --> 00:44:43,560
Speaker 2: ability and kind of what you see out of Tennessee's offense,

939
00:44:43,600 --> 00:44:46,399
Speaker 2: I think it's definitely worthwhile to look into it into

940
00:44:46,400 --> 00:44:48,920
Speaker 2: week one and just see, like, Okay, he didn't scramble

941
00:44:49,000 --> 00:44:51,120
Speaker 2: once in this game. Maybe we need to take a

942
00:44:51,120 --> 00:44:54,920
Speaker 2: look at this again. All Right, this has been our

943
00:44:54,960 --> 00:44:56,920
Speaker 2: first pod in a while, So Jill, this has been

944
00:44:56,960 --> 00:45:00,000
Speaker 2: an absolute pure pleasure. But that'll do it for today's

945
00:45:00,000 --> 00:45:03,799
Speaker 2: episode of the Action Hour podcast. Tell everyone where they

946
00:45:03,800 --> 00:45:06,879
Speaker 2: can find out more of your information, more of your data,

947
00:45:06,960 --> 00:45:08,480
Speaker 2: more of this touchdown greatness.

948
00:45:08,719 --> 00:45:12,400
Speaker 1: Awesome. All right. So the handle is g dog five thousand.

949
00:45:12,480 --> 00:45:18,360
Speaker 1: That's on all handles GDAWG five thousand, So Action app X, Instagram, whatever.

950
00:45:18,640 --> 00:45:21,200
Speaker 1: So here's what we got coming up. So of course

951
00:45:21,480 --> 00:45:24,759
Speaker 1: Touchdown Show coming back first Sunday of the week on

952
00:45:24,840 --> 00:45:28,800
Speaker 1: September seventh, So that's going to be at eleven thirty

953
00:45:28,800 --> 00:45:31,160
Speaker 1: am Eastern on the Action as part of the Action

954
00:45:31,239 --> 00:45:33,560
Speaker 1: Network Power Hour. So we're coming back for season four,

955
00:45:33,640 --> 00:45:36,160
Speaker 1: so that's great. Of course I'm going to have Anytime

956
00:45:36,239 --> 00:45:38,960
Speaker 1: Touchdown notes and tips for all thirty two teams for

957
00:45:39,000 --> 00:45:41,800
Speaker 1: a season preview. Then we're going to have, of course

958
00:45:41,880 --> 00:45:44,759
Speaker 1: our weekly one to eighty Challenge Touchdown parlay that we

959
00:45:44,880 --> 00:45:48,880
Speaker 1: do every Saturday. I'm going to also be doing I

960
00:45:48,880 --> 00:45:50,760
Speaker 1: did this the last two years, we're doing it again

961
00:45:50,800 --> 00:45:54,160
Speaker 1: this year. It is my weekly Anytime Touchdown preview where

962
00:45:54,160 --> 00:45:58,160
Speaker 1: I give touchdown picks for every single game. And I

963
00:45:58,200 --> 00:46:01,600
Speaker 1: am just pumped because also another market that I still

964
00:46:01,640 --> 00:46:03,640
Speaker 1: love to do and we didn't get a much chance

965
00:46:03,680 --> 00:46:07,080
Speaker 1: to talk about today is interception props. One of my

966
00:46:07,239 --> 00:46:09,399
Speaker 1: favorite markets to play. I'm going to be doing those

967
00:46:09,440 --> 00:46:11,799
Speaker 1: again as well, those who come out every Friday at

968
00:46:12,000 --> 00:46:13,160
Speaker 1: ectionnetwork dot com.

969
00:46:14,120 --> 00:46:17,360
Speaker 2: And we also love your live touchdown I mean interception

970
00:46:17,440 --> 00:46:19,960
Speaker 2: props as well. We've seen you talk about a bunch

971
00:46:20,000 --> 00:46:21,399
Speaker 2: of that stuff on social.

972
00:46:21,719 --> 00:46:23,400
Speaker 1: If any thing evan where we're probably going to be

973
00:46:23,440 --> 00:46:25,279
Speaker 1: a lot more this year, dude is probably not as

974
00:46:25,360 --> 00:46:28,160
Speaker 1: much on X and I find that place just to

975
00:46:28,160 --> 00:46:31,080
Speaker 1: be a little too negatron. I think the best place

976
00:46:31,080 --> 00:46:34,000
Speaker 1: to hang out now for sweating primetime games and live

977
00:46:34,040 --> 00:46:36,600
Speaker 1: betting is the Action Network Discord. I love hanging out

978
00:46:36,600 --> 00:46:39,720
Speaker 1: in there with our users and talking bets, talking smack.

979
00:46:39,760 --> 00:46:41,960
Speaker 1: It's great. So that's probably where you'll see me a

980
00:46:42,040 --> 00:46:44,520
Speaker 1: lot more this year during primetime games.

981
00:46:44,760 --> 00:46:46,759
Speaker 2: Yeah, across all of our different brands. We've got a

982
00:46:46,760 --> 00:46:49,040
Speaker 2: few different discords and all of our experts hang out

983
00:46:49,080 --> 00:46:52,400
Speaker 2: in there during live games, and yeah, it's going to

984
00:46:52,480 --> 00:46:54,319
Speaker 2: be great. Can't wait for the season. I'll have a

985
00:46:54,320 --> 00:46:56,640
Speaker 2: bunch of articles up. I'll do my weekly stuff every

986
00:46:56,680 --> 00:46:58,400
Speaker 2: week of the year as well. But this is just

987
00:46:58,400 --> 00:47:00,480
Speaker 2: the start of it. We'll have a lot more pods

988
00:47:00,520 --> 00:47:02,839
Speaker 2: to come in, so much more NFL betting content as

989
00:47:02,880 --> 00:47:05,080
Speaker 2: we get closer and closer to kick off, So make

990
00:47:05,120 --> 00:47:07,640
Speaker 2: sure to subscribe to the show, and don't forget to

991
00:47:07,680 --> 00:47:10,960
Speaker 2: download the free, award winning Action Network app. Sign up

992
00:47:10,960 --> 00:47:14,319
Speaker 2: for Action Pro for immediate access to expert picks and

993
00:47:14,440 --> 00:47:18,279
Speaker 2: analysis for joggle on. I'm Evan Abrams. Thanks again for

994
00:47:18,320 --> 00:47:20,960
Speaker 2: tuning in. We'll see you next time. Good luck with

995
00:47:21,000 --> 00:47:40,600
Speaker 2: all your bets phone shops. Action Network reminds you please

996
00:47:40,680 --> 00:47:44,080
Speaker 2: gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care about has

997
00:47:44,080 --> 00:47:47,200
Speaker 2: a gambling problem, help is available twenty four to seven

998
00:47:47,360 --> 00:47:48,840
Speaker 2: at one eight hundred Gambler