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Speaker 1: I'm West Kasova today on the Big Take. Bloomberg's ghaliit

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Speaker 1: Alstein and Henry Mayer joined me from Tel Aviv for

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Speaker 1: an update on the Israel Hamas war, including the rising

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Speaker 1: number of civilian deaths in Gaza, growing international pressure on

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Speaker 1: Israel to allow in more food and aid to address

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Speaker 1: a dire humanitarian crisis, and diminishing expectations for a deal

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Speaker 1: to free hostages. Hamas seized when it attacked Israel in October. Ghalid,

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Speaker 1: It's been several days now since Israel began its ground

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Speaker 1: operations in Gaza. Can you tell us what is happening

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Speaker 1: right now?

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Speaker 2: We have been seeing extensive ground operations by the Israeli

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Speaker 2: military that have started last Friday night, after earlier the

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Speaker 2: so called Swords of Iron War. The main focus earlier

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Speaker 2: was almost only on aerial attacks and very limited in

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Speaker 2: small ground rates. And that has changed over the past

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Speaker 2: time week or so. The extended ground operations, they have

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Speaker 2: been moving forward at a faster pace. I think it's

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Speaker 2: afe to say then anticipated even and what we're seeing

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Speaker 2: now mainly is large ground and infantry forces that are

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Speaker 2: baddling Hamas defenses. This is mainly happening now around Gaza City,

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Speaker 2: which is in the northern part of the Gaza Strip

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Speaker 2: and in the western part of the adjacent small town

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Speaker 2: of Jibalia, which is often, by the way, referred to

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Speaker 2: as a camp, but I think that it does resemble

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Speaker 2: more a small town in terms of the infrastructure there.

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Speaker 2: Most residents of this area have also said to have

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Speaker 2: fled the area and moved further down south, so we

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Speaker 2: don't exactly know how many people there are at the time.

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Speaker 2: Although this is thought to be a very crowded area

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Speaker 2: and very densely populated area, it is not surely so

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Speaker 2: at this time. We've seen intense fighting in this very

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Speaker 2: heavily built landscape.

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Speaker 1: Authorities in Gaza say more than nine thousand people in

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Speaker 1: Gaza have died due to the war, and more than

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Speaker 1: fourteen hundred Israelis were killed in the October seventh Hamas attacks,

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Speaker 1: and Israel says eighteen Israeli soldiers have died, and of

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Speaker 1: course there are two hundred and forty two people known

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Speaker 1: to be held hostage by Hamas in Gaza. Henry Israel's

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Speaker 1: bombing of the Jibealia camp that Gulli was talking about

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Speaker 1: really galvanize the world's attention. Israel said that it conducted

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Speaker 1: this bombing because there were Hamas fighters and leaders in

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Speaker 1: the camp, and yet many civilians died. Why did Israel

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Speaker 1: decide to bomb this camp.

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Speaker 3: Well, Israel has been saying all along that Hamas is

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Speaker 3: using civilians as human shields. We see this again and

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Speaker 3: again that civilians are getting killed in these air strikes.

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Speaker 3: You know, we had the incident with the hospital that

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Speaker 3: happened earlier in the conflict, when the health authorities reported

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Speaker 3: up to five hundred deaths in what they said was

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Speaker 3: in Israeli airstrike on a hospital. Israel then came up

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Speaker 3: with evidence that in fact, this was a rocket that

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Speaker 3: was misfired by Islamic she had. You're going to have

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Speaker 3: this again and again in this conflict. You know, incidents

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Speaker 3: in which large numbers of civilians die and people, you know,

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Speaker 3: on either side are blaming each other for what happened.

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Speaker 3: I think with the refugee camp, it's clear that Israel

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Speaker 3: targeted Hamas operatives Hamas commander, but they did so in

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Speaker 3: an area which was full of civilians, and therefore it

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Speaker 3: was inevitable that you're going to get these kind of casualties.

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Speaker 1: What is Israel's thinking about this problem of civilians being

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Speaker 1: in harms way.

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Speaker 2: I think that on the one hand, Israel and the

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Speaker 2: Israeli Army have made a big point of asking Gazans,

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Speaker 2: the civilians who reside in Gaza, especially in the northern parts,

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Speaker 2: to move to the south of Gaza, and they have

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Speaker 2: promised to create humanitarian zones there, both in the sense

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Speaker 2: that they will not be attacked, these areas will not

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Speaker 2: be attacked, and also promising that aid that is coming

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Speaker 2: through the Rafa border with Egypt and promising that this

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Speaker 2: aid will be navigated towards these humanitarian areas in the south.

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Speaker 2: So that's one thing that Israel has done and has

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Speaker 2: made a point of also telling the world about. But

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Speaker 2: I think that you know, with connection to the ground operation,

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Speaker 2: time is a very important question, and the so called

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Speaker 2: international community hourglass is definitely something that is on the table.

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Speaker 2: As you know, conditions in Gaza get worse for the

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Speaker 2: population and as the death arises. The question is how

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Speaker 2: longer Israel will have the legitimacy to continue in terms

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Speaker 2: of the international support that that it's been getting, at

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Speaker 2: least for most of its Western allies. So this might

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Speaker 2: also affect ground operations in determining how long can Israel

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Speaker 2: have an ongoing presence in Gaza rather than its force

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Speaker 2: is going in and out for specific targeted operations.

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Speaker 3: You know, from the Israeli side, we spoke to a

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Speaker 3: senior government minister and ally of Prime Minister Nathan Yahu,

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Speaker 3: and he put out this very optimistic picture that the

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Speaker 3: number of civilian casualties would start to fall. Now, of course,

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Speaker 3: the reality on the ground is that the numbers being

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Speaker 3: announced every day by the health authorities in Gaza are

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Speaker 3: still going up by several hundred per day. It's quite

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Speaker 3: clear that for the time being, the number of deaths

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Speaker 3: is going to increase at a very serious rate, and

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Speaker 3: until the air campaign actually ends, unfortunately, the humanitarian dimension

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Speaker 3: of this is only going to get worse.

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Speaker 2: Israel did cut off all thelectricity and water supply to

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Speaker 2: the Gaza strip as its retaliation started. I'm assuming that

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Speaker 2: a lot of places in Gaza are disconnected from electricity

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Speaker 2: unless they're using generators that need the fuel to work.

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Speaker 2: That Gazan zamb say is also starting to run out,

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Speaker 2: so that's on that. We have heard the Israeli armies

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Speaker 2: say that some of the water pipes. At least two

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Speaker 2: of the three that exist in that work were reconnected,

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Speaker 2: but they were reconnected to the southern parts of Gaza

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Speaker 2: and not to the northern parts. So we know that.

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Speaker 2: And we also know that trucks that are coming in

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Speaker 2: from the Rafa crossing with Egypt they carry medicine, water

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Speaker 2: and food. They do not carry fuel. Israel has totally

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Speaker 2: banned that for now, But the number of the trucks

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Speaker 2: is very low for now, just to give an idea,

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Speaker 2: before the war broke out, so I think there were

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Speaker 2: about five hundred trucks going into Gaza per day. Now

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Speaker 2: the UN says that the minimum would be one hundred

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Speaker 2: trucks of eight going in, and that is far from happening.

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Speaker 2: Now we see maybe ten twenty trucks going in each day,

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Speaker 2: but Israel has said over the last couple of days

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Speaker 2: that this number is going to significantly go up, and

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Speaker 2: that means that Israel is aiming to go somewhere near

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Speaker 2: one hundred trucks or a few tens of trucks each day,

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Speaker 2: and not as few as we've seen over the last

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Speaker 2: ten weeks.

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Speaker 1: Henry, despite the intensity of the ground operations in Gaza,

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Speaker 1: he recently wrote that, in fact, this is what Israel

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Speaker 1: is thinking of as a go slow approach to this war.

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Speaker 3: Yes, that's right. Obviously, Israel understands that the scale of

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Speaker 3: the task which has set itself, as it put, to

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Speaker 3: destroy Hamas is not going to be achieved quickly. It

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Speaker 3: can't be achieved quickly because that would require such an

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Speaker 3: overwhelming use of force that would cause a far far

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Speaker 3: greater humanitarian astrophy even than the situation we see today.

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Speaker 3: What is in their strategy is to pursue for several

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Speaker 3: weeks at least operations at the current level of intensity.

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Speaker 3: They understand that they will have to scale that back

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Speaker 3: at some point because of the level of international criticism,

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Speaker 3: and that's why they will need a much longer period

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Speaker 3: to actually achieve their final objective. And what i atlund

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Speaker 3: in my story was that this will prolong the amount

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Speaker 3: of time that you know, Israel is operating in Gaza,

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Speaker 3: and therefore is going to make it very difficult for

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Speaker 3: it to actually achieve those objectives. At some point it

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Speaker 3: may actually have to call the whole operation off because

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Speaker 3: of the extent of international criticism.

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Speaker 1: Henry, you also write that the military is trying to

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Speaker 1: avoid a situation where they're fighting building to building and

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Speaker 1: avoid the hundreds of miles of tunnels that Hamas fighters

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Speaker 1: have built.

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Speaker 3: Yes, the tunnels in particular are seen as the greatest

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Speaker 3: danger for Israeli troops. They extend, according to Hamas, up

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Speaker 3: to five hundred kilometers. They're very well equipped, they have

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Speaker 3: ventilation and electricity. Some stretch as deep as thirty meters

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Speaker 3: or more. And this is really a city within a city.

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Speaker 3: This is where Hamas has its main military infrastructure, and

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Speaker 3: Israeli soldiers who try to enter into those tunnels, they

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Speaker 3: won't have an idea of the layout. They will be

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Speaker 3: at a major disadvantage. And that's why the tactic is

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Speaker 3: to try as much as possible to destroy the tunnels,

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Speaker 3: you know, without actually having to send people in. The

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Speaker 3: complicating factor here is that more than two hundred hostages

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Speaker 3: are being held in Gaza by Hamas. Many of them

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Speaker 3: are understood to be held underground, and that means that

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Speaker 3: you know, if you use overwhelming force to try and

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Speaker 3: destroy the tunnel system, you're also risking the life of

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Speaker 3: the hostages.

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Speaker 2: This has direct connection to the fuel question, because the

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Speaker 2: reason that Israel has been insisting so hard to ban

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Speaker 2: fuel from entering the Gaza strip. They say two things.

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Speaker 2: They say, One, Ramas has fuel and if it's missing,

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Speaker 2: then you know, the complaints should be referred to Hamas.

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Speaker 2: And the second thing they say is that Tramas uses

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Speaker 2: this fuel to ventilate these tunnels, and once they don't

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Speaker 2: have it, or they have a lot less of it,

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Speaker 2: they can't ventilate the tunnels, and they come out, the

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Speaker 2: operatives and the commanders come out, and then Israel can

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Speaker 2: obviously attack them more easily.

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Speaker 1: After the break, civilian deaths in Gaza spark international criticism

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Speaker 1: of Israel. Henry, the growing humanitarian crisis in Gaza has

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Speaker 1: certainly gotten the world's attention. We're starting to see leaders,

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Speaker 1: including allies of Israel like the US and Joe Biden,

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Speaker 1: starting to question Israel's military actions and tell them that

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Speaker 1: they have to do something about this. Can you tell

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Speaker 1: us what's happening with that?

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Speaker 3: What we see is that the humanitarian situation in Gaza

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Speaker 3: has provoked major protests in London. Two weekends in a row,

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Speaker 3: you had tens of thousands of people coming out in

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Speaker 3: pro Palestinian demonstrations. In other European cities, it was very

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Speaker 3: interesting last Friday, when the You and General Assembly voted

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Speaker 3: on a resolution calling for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza,

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Speaker 3: only fourteen countries voted against that resolution, including the United States, Israel,

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Speaker 3: five Pacific island nations, and four smaller European countries. That

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Speaker 3: really shows you that even among countries which support Israel's

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Speaker 3: right to self defense to retaliate against Hamas, there's a

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Speaker 3: great deal of concern. They're very uncomfortable about the human

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Speaker 3: costs of Israel's offensive in Gaza.

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Speaker 1: And even Joe Biden, who in the beginning was firmly

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Speaker 1: on the side of Israel and had not as much

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Speaker 1: to say about what was happening in Gaza, is now

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Speaker 1: speaking more about civilian lives there.

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Speaker 3: Well, that's right, I mean his sending back his Secretary

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Speaker 3: of State Anthony Blincoln to the region. Blincoln is due

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Speaker 3: to arrive in Israel on Friday, and you see the

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Speaker 3: United States now calling for what it called humanitarian pauses,

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Speaker 3: not a full cease fire, but a period of time

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Speaker 3: which would be enough to allow aid to flow into Gaza.

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Speaker 3: Until now, Israel has absolutely refused any suggestions of a

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Speaker 3: halt of fighting. Its argument is that this would only

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Speaker 3: allow hamas a breathing space time to reconstitute.

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Speaker 2: The US involvement in this particular conflict has been unprecedented,

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Speaker 2: and Israel has always made a point of maintaining its

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Speaker 2: independence in terms of what it can and wants to

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Speaker 2: do in terms of military retaliation, and this has been

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Speaker 2: a completely different situation, not only in the sense that

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Speaker 2: the US has sent over to aircraft carriers, but also

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Speaker 2: in the very freak frequent visits that we've seen here,

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Speaker 2: especially from Secretary of State b Lincoln, also the US

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Speaker 2: President Biden, the ongoing reports on what they've been asking

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Speaker 2: of Israel. At first it was a certain delay in

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Speaker 2: the ground invasion in order to allow hostile negotiations, then

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Speaker 2: the requests from humanitarian aid, and we've seen the US

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Speaker 2: very dominant here as opposed to the past.

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Speaker 1: Gallie. We're also seeing for the first time the border

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Speaker 1: crossing with Egypt opening up, allowing wounded and sick people

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Speaker 1: from Gaza to cross over into Egypt. What is happening

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Speaker 1: with that.

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Speaker 2: So actually we're talking about two different groups of people

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Speaker 2: who are allowed to leave Gaza into Egypt, and this

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Speaker 2: is happening for the first time actually as we speak,

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Speaker 2: since the Israeli armies retaliation started in early October. The

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Speaker 2: first group we're seeing or groups of dual nationals meaning

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Speaker 2: people who are Palestinian but have another passport, or foreigners

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Speaker 2: who are in Gaza that belong you know, that work

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Speaker 2: for various organizations and need to leave the place. On

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Speaker 2: the other hand, we're seeing wounded Palestinians like you mentioned,

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Speaker 2: that are also allowed to leave Gaza. It remains to

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Speaker 2: be seen whether this is connected with the Israeli notion

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Speaker 2: of evacuating hospitals in Gaza as much as possible, because

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Speaker 2: Israel insists and has also shown proof that Hamas command

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Speaker 2: centers were built in tunnels under these hospitals, so obviously

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Speaker 2: they want the hospitals emptied so they can get to

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Speaker 2: the people who are hiding underground.

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Speaker 1: Henry, How is Israel responding to this enormous international pressure

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Speaker 1: to do something about civilians in Gaza who are in harms.

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Speaker 3: Way, Israel is agreeing to allow more aid into Gaza.

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Speaker 3: It says that the number of trucks coming in on

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Speaker 3: a daily basis will increase to one hundred, which it

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Speaker 3: has to be said, is one fifth of the pre

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Speaker 3: war level In terms of the air strikes, as we

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Speaker 3: discussed before. Their argument is that they have called on

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Speaker 3: Gazans to move to a safer part of that territory,

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Speaker 3: the southern part, and that they will try to avoid

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Speaker 3: targeting them. But you know, as what we have seen,

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Speaker 3: those air strikes are still continuing across the entire Gaza strip.

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Speaker 3: We'll have to see in the coming days whether the

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Speaker 3: death toll actually starts to decrease, But that is the

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Speaker 3: state at Israeli goal.

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Speaker 1: You mentioned earlier, calls on Israel to pause to give

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Speaker 1: time for civilians who are still in the way to

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Speaker 1: move and to tend to sick people, to get food

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Speaker 1: and other supplies into Gaza. Do you think that Israel

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Speaker 1: would do that to stop the fighting for some length

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Speaker 1: of time.

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Speaker 3: Do you know the US is asking for humanitarian pauses

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Speaker 3: to allow more aid into Gaza, And there have been

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Speaker 3: instances in the past that Israel has responded to US pressure.

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Speaker 3: For example, after the Grand operations started last week, internet

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Speaker 3: and mobile phone communications were cut entirely to Gaza, and

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Speaker 3: the US demanded that Israel allow their services to resume.

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Speaker 3: So I think that is entirely possible that this is

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Speaker 3: one of the objectives of Anthony Blincoln's visit to Israel.

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Speaker 1: When we come back, can a deal be reached to

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Speaker 1: free the hostages Ghalid? Earlier, Henry had mentioned the question

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Speaker 1: of the hostages who still remain in Gaza. There has

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Speaker 1: been a lot of goiations led by Katar. Do we

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Speaker 1: know exactly where that stands now?

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Speaker 2: We were recently told by the head of Israel's National

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Speaker 2: Security Council that as of now, there's no hostage deal

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Speaker 2: in sight, that negotiations are not going anywhere, and he

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Speaker 2: actually said that Qatar has realized that Hamas was misleading them,

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Speaker 2: quote unquote, he said that at a press briefing. So

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Speaker 2: there's no news on that front. Over the last weekend,

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Speaker 2: just before the accelerated ground operation in Gaza started, there

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Speaker 2: was a lot of chatter about the negotiations moderated by

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Speaker 2: cut are moving forward very quickly, and we heard a

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Speaker 2: lot of Israeli officials say these reports adjustment to delay

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Speaker 2: Israel's ground invasion and also say that at this point,

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Speaker 2: on the contrary, what can maybe pressure Hamas to release

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Speaker 2: more hostages is more military pressure, even a ground invasion,

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Speaker 2: rather than withholding it. So that has sort of been

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Speaker 2: thedynamic over the last week or so.

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Speaker 1: If these negotiations are stalled, does that mean hope for

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Speaker 1: these hostages ultimately being freed is now diminishing.

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Speaker 3: Hope is definitely diminishing. I've spoken to representative of the

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Speaker 3: families of the hostages, and definitely, before the ground operation began,

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Speaker 3: there was some feeling that things were starting to move

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Speaker 3: in the right direction. The position of the families of

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Speaker 3: the hostages, and that's interestingly one that gets support from

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Speaker 3: people in the security establishment. A former defense minister said

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Speaker 3: that he supported the idea of what is known as

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Speaker 3: all for all, in other words, swapping all the hostages

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Speaker 3: for all the Hamas prison is in Israeli prisons several thousand.

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Speaker 3: You know, the government ruled that out and it's now

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Speaker 3: taking what it seemed to be a very hard line,

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Speaker 3: and that has created a great deal of anxiety. And

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Speaker 3: the issue is that the Israeli public has been very supportive,

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Speaker 3: of course, of the military operation and has considered the

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Speaker 3: hostage issue to be a secondary one. We'll have to

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Speaker 3: see whether that changes.

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Speaker 1: Gully, A lot of attention is on the fighting in Gaza,

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Speaker 1: but that is not the only place where Israel is fighting.

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Speaker 1: There is also conflict in its border to the north

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Speaker 1: with Lebanon and Hezbollah. Can you tell us about that.

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Speaker 2: What we've been seeing there for a few weeks now

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Speaker 2: is a sort of constant back and forth fire exchanges

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Speaker 2: between Chrisbela and by the way, not only Chrisbellah, but

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Speaker 2: also some Palestinian groups who are positioned in Lebanon. So

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Speaker 2: we've seen back and forth fire between them in Israeli forces.

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Speaker 2: We've seen them trying to target Israeli military posts along

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Speaker 2: the border. We've seen them trying to fire mortar shells

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Speaker 2: at Israeli settlements that have mostly been evacuated along the

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Speaker 2: northern border. And we've seen Israel retal to these shooting attempts,

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Speaker 2: firing back at the sources of fire. And we've also

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Speaker 2: seen some attacks that took place not in Lebanon but

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Speaker 2: in Syria, because some of the shooting came from there.

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Speaker 2: Azuel is not publicly admitted responsibility for these Syria attacks,

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Speaker 2: but they've definitely taken place. Israel at this point, I

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Speaker 2: would say, is retaliating to Chrisbella and other groups shooting

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Speaker 2: into Israeli territory and making a strong point of at

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Speaker 2: this time only retaliating and at the same time using

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Speaker 2: very aggressive rhetoric and saying that it is very well prepared,

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Speaker 2: both on the offensive and defensive side, to do anything

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Speaker 2: it needs to do to protect Israel's security and its

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Speaker 2: security interest. A lot of eyes are looking at that

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Speaker 2: and looking at how that plays.

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Speaker 1: Out, Henry. All of this raises the question of the

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Speaker 1: possibility of this war spreading and becoming a more regional conflict.

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Speaker 1: Is there a feeling that the chances of that happening

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Speaker 1: are rising or falling as a result of recent days.

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Speaker 3: I think that the risks of a spillover of a conflict,

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Speaker 3: of an escalation are definitely significant. That is one of

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Speaker 3: the main reasons why the Americans are so involved trying

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Speaker 3: to ensure that Israel limits the scope of its offensive.

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Speaker 3: It hasn't actually been that successful in that, and I

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Speaker 3: think this is what is concerning people. Ultimately, whether it

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Speaker 3: spreads to Lebanon and pez Bola get sucked into the

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Speaker 3: conflict also depends very largely on Iran's calculations and whether

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Speaker 3: they're willing to wage that kind of more or less

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Speaker 3: a direct conflict. You know, we do see a lot

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Speaker 3: of attacks on US military interests on basis in Iraq

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Speaker 3: and in Syria. For the moment, it seems to be containable,

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Speaker 3: but something unexpected can happen. It can light a spark

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Speaker 3: that can make this conflict spread, and it's very hard

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Speaker 3: to anticipate how that might happen.

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Speaker 1: Khalide. Obviously, things are changing very quickly and there's a

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Speaker 1: lot to keep track of. What are you watching as

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Speaker 1: you continue to report?

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Speaker 2: We mentioned this, but I will mention it again. Also,

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Speaker 2: what happens on the northern front is Grisbela is considered

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Speaker 2: to be a much more powerful enemy for Israel than

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Speaker 2: Ramas in the sense that it has a very large

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Speaker 2: missile arsenalit. It can be a much bigger threat to

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Speaker 2: Israel's home front. And of course, what will happen in

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Speaker 2: Gaza the day after Israel says or declares you know,

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Speaker 2: it has possibly won the war. Who is going on

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Speaker 2: to rule the Gaza strip? If Ramas is brought down

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Speaker 2: and cannot rule there anymore as far as Israel is concerned,

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Speaker 2: who will take over? This is a very complicated question

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Speaker 2: that is already being discussed. But I think the answer,

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Speaker 2: at least at this stage is very far from being clear.

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Speaker 2: In Israel, there has been chatter, and I would call

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Speaker 2: a chatter at this stage about perhaps after Israel pulls

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Speaker 2: out of Gaza, maybe a professional government, a technocrat government

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Speaker 2: is put into place to rule Gaza for something like

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Speaker 2: two years ahead, and then after that there will be

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Speaker 2: general elections both in Gaza and the West Bank, and

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Speaker 2: that will determine who will rule both Gaza and the

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Speaker 2: West Bank. So that's one thing that is being talked about.

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Speaker 2: In terms of a military threat to Israel, there's a

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Speaker 2: lot of talk about setting a perimeter, maybe a kilometer

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Speaker 2: or two kilometers into the Gaza strip where no one

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Speaker 2: is able to enter under any circumstance, in order to

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Speaker 2: protect the southern vicinities of Israel.

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Speaker 3: The really bigger picture here is how this is going

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Speaker 3: to affect the US efforts to try and remake the

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Speaker 3: Middle East. It's been pushing for a peace agreement to

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Speaker 3: establish diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel, and at

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Speaker 3: the US has said openly that it believes that Hamas's

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Speaker 3: attack was aimed at sabotaging this. So you know how

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Speaker 3: the Israeli campaign goes exactly how much criticism, international criticism

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Speaker 3: is generated, whether it's able to achieve its objectives is

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Speaker 3: going to be critical to determining how this plays out.

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Speaker 3: You know, the US, as I said before, it's making

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Speaker 3: every effort to try and prevent this from spinning out

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Speaker 3: of control. I do sense still among Israeli officials they

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Speaker 3: are confident that they can pull it off, that they

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Speaker 3: can degrade Hamas sufficiently, perhaps not destroy them entirely, but

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Speaker 3: make sure that they do not represent a military threat

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Speaker 3: anymore to Israel, and at the same time maintain the

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Speaker 3: diplomatic relations they have with Arab nations and even find

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Speaker 3: the possibility to reach an agreement with Saudi Arabia.

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Speaker 1: Henry Galie, thanks for taking the time to speak with me.

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Speaker 3: It's been a pleasure.

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Speaker 2: Thank you.

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Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to us here at The Big Take.

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