1
00:00:02,440 --> 00:00:06,760
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

2
00:00:10,480 --> 00:00:13,920
Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Debacurate podcast, available every morning on Apple,

3
00:00:13,960 --> 00:00:17,320
Speaker 2: Spotify or wherever you listen. It's Monday, the twenty second

4
00:00:17,320 --> 00:00:20,720
Speaker 2: of July in London. I'm Caroline Hepga Coming up today.

5
00:00:20,880 --> 00:00:24,680
Speaker 2: President Biden drops out of the presidential race and endorses

6
00:00:24,760 --> 00:00:29,040
Speaker 2: Vice President Kamala Harris to win the next election. Harris

7
00:00:29,080 --> 00:00:32,720
Speaker 2: secures the early backing of Democratic heavyweights as others in

8
00:00:32,760 --> 00:00:36,800
Speaker 2: the party call for an open contest. Plus investors react.

9
00:00:36,920 --> 00:00:40,400
Speaker 2: Biden's exit puts the Trump trade in doubt as US

10
00:00:40,560 --> 00:00:43,920
Speaker 2: election bets get a reset. Let's start with a round

11
00:00:44,000 --> 00:00:46,519
Speaker 2: up of our top story. Joe Biden has abandoned his

12
00:00:46,600 --> 00:00:49,159
Speaker 2: bid for a second term in the White House and

13
00:00:49,320 --> 00:00:52,400
Speaker 2: endorse Vice President Kamala Harris to take his place as

14
00:00:52,440 --> 00:00:56,280
Speaker 2: the Democratic nominee. A disaster's debate performance by the eighty

15
00:00:56,360 --> 00:00:59,520
Speaker 2: one year old against Donald Trump last month crystallized doubts

16
00:00:59,560 --> 00:01:04,480
Speaker 2: among arty leaders, donors, and voters. Senator Chris Coons of Delaware,

17
00:01:04,560 --> 00:01:08,120
Speaker 2: a long time Biden ally, spoke to the President after

18
00:01:08,160 --> 00:01:11,560
Speaker 2: the announcement. His sum of what he told ABC.

19
00:01:11,720 --> 00:01:15,000
Speaker 3: The President, I spoke and I am so grateful for

20
00:01:15,080 --> 00:01:18,000
Speaker 3: his decades of leadership for our nation. He did thank

21
00:01:18,040 --> 00:01:20,560
Speaker 3: me for my loyalty, and I thanked him for his leadership.

22
00:01:20,560 --> 00:01:22,120
Speaker 3: But at the end of the day, what matters is

23
00:01:22,160 --> 00:01:25,720
Speaker 3: not that exchange, but that he also said, as he

24
00:01:25,760 --> 00:01:27,720
Speaker 3: said in his letter to the American people, that he's

25
00:01:27,760 --> 00:01:29,200
Speaker 3: more optimistic than he's ever been.

26
00:01:30,200 --> 00:01:34,000
Speaker 2: Chris coons they're discussing his conversation with the president. The

27
00:01:34,080 --> 00:01:37,840
Speaker 2: decision kicks off a three month sprint to the November election,

28
00:01:38,200 --> 00:01:41,199
Speaker 2: in which Democrats will face the task of uniting around

29
00:01:41,200 --> 00:01:45,679
Speaker 2: a new nominee only weeks before their nominating convention. In

30
00:01:45,720 --> 00:01:49,800
Speaker 2: a statement, Biden praised Harris as an extraordinary partner. Harris

31
00:01:49,800 --> 00:01:53,000
Speaker 2: accepted the President's backing, saying in a subsequent statement that

32
00:01:53,080 --> 00:01:56,760
Speaker 2: she intends to earn the party's nomination bill and Hillary

33
00:01:56,800 --> 00:02:01,160
Speaker 2: Clinton and several battleground state lawmakers own their support behind

34
00:02:01,160 --> 00:02:06,080
Speaker 2: the Vice president. Here is Congressman Joaquin Castro of Texas.

35
00:02:06,440 --> 00:02:08,720
Speaker 3: The only thing that we can do is make sure

36
00:02:08,760 --> 00:02:13,400
Speaker 3: that we have the strongest campaign going forward, and I

37
00:02:13,520 --> 00:02:15,720
Speaker 3: believe that Vice President Harris is a person.

38
00:02:15,760 --> 00:02:21,480
Speaker 2: Deleted the endorsement there of Congressman Joaquin Castro. Harris's team

39
00:02:21,600 --> 00:02:25,600
Speaker 2: is understood to have already begun contacting delegates to short

40
00:02:25,680 --> 00:02:28,760
Speaker 2: up support ahead of a virtual role call for the

41
00:02:28,800 --> 00:02:34,320
Speaker 2: presidential nomination. That many Democrats now see Harris as their

42
00:02:34,440 --> 00:02:38,079
Speaker 2: best hope of derating Trump is a remarkable change. Harris

43
00:02:38,080 --> 00:02:40,919
Speaker 2: has been criticized as Vice president for her role addressing

44
00:02:41,000 --> 00:02:44,760
Speaker 2: migrant crossings at the US Mexico border and speaking to

45
00:02:44,840 --> 00:02:49,000
Speaker 2: Fox News before Biden's announcement, Donald Trump made his feelings

46
00:02:49,040 --> 00:02:50,079
Speaker 2: about Harris clear.

47
00:02:50,560 --> 00:02:53,320
Speaker 1: She's not a competent person. She shouldn't be president.

48
00:02:53,440 --> 00:02:55,480
Speaker 4: I mean, she's being left heat all over the world.

49
00:02:56,600 --> 00:03:00,280
Speaker 2: But Dan Moraine, author of Kamala's Way an American Life,

50
00:03:00,400 --> 00:03:04,200
Speaker 2: a biography, says that she would present a significant challenge

51
00:03:04,200 --> 00:03:05,040
Speaker 2: to Donald Trump.

52
00:03:05,240 --> 00:03:08,440
Speaker 5: I think people who underestimate Kamla Harrison the losing He

53
00:03:08,520 --> 00:03:11,880
Speaker 5: would not be the first man to underestimate Carmla Harris.

54
00:03:12,080 --> 00:03:14,960
Speaker 5: She can be formidable. She can be a very good candidate.

55
00:03:15,080 --> 00:03:18,639
Speaker 5: Date you know, I moderated a debate that she had

56
00:03:18,680 --> 00:03:23,440
Speaker 5: when she ran for attorney general against a very accomplished prosecutor.

57
00:03:23,600 --> 00:03:26,880
Speaker 5: Why on accounts he should have won that race. He

58
00:03:27,000 --> 00:03:32,800
Speaker 5: was very accomplished, but she she bested him in that debate, Dan.

59
00:03:32,720 --> 00:03:37,520
Speaker 2: Murray and journalists and biographer. Polling released after Biden's disastrous

60
00:03:37,560 --> 00:03:41,480
Speaker 2: debate with Donald Trump showed that in a head to

61
00:03:41,560 --> 00:03:45,040
Speaker 2: head they found Harris trail Trump by two points among

62
00:03:45,080 --> 00:03:49,400
Speaker 2: registered voters, compared to Biden, who trailed Trump by three points,

63
00:03:50,240 --> 00:03:53,360
Speaker 2: and Democrats have seen donations of more than fifty million

64
00:03:53,400 --> 00:03:57,520
Speaker 2: dollars so far, according to act Blue, the biggest fundraising

65
00:03:57,600 --> 00:04:00,960
Speaker 2: day of the twenty twenty four cycle. Harris would also

66
00:04:01,040 --> 00:04:04,600
Speaker 2: have a unique advantage if she secures the nomination. The

67
00:04:04,720 --> 00:04:07,880
Speaker 2: vice president would have legal access to most of the

68
00:04:07,960 --> 00:04:13,440
Speaker 2: money that Biden's political operation has on hand, but Democratic donors,

69
00:04:13,480 --> 00:04:18,039
Speaker 2: including billionaire Rick Caruso and the former investment professional Trade Beck,

70
00:04:18,400 --> 00:04:22,880
Speaker 2: are calling for an open contest to determine a new candidate.

71
00:04:24,279 --> 00:04:26,520
Speaker 2: In terms of the markets, investors have been betting on

72
00:04:26,560 --> 00:04:30,200
Speaker 2: a second Trump presidency for weeks. Biden's exit may mean

73
00:04:30,279 --> 00:04:34,080
Speaker 2: a recalibration, putting the so called Trump trade in doubt,

74
00:04:34,440 --> 00:04:37,760
Speaker 2: but Kathy Jones to fixed income statist that Charles Schwab

75
00:04:38,160 --> 00:04:44,320
Speaker 2: says the impact will only be discernible over the long term.

76
00:04:44,560 --> 00:04:47,400
Speaker 4: In the long run, obviously you know who's in the

77
00:04:47,440 --> 00:04:51,400
Speaker 4: White House. What those policies are and whose in Congress

78
00:04:51,480 --> 00:04:55,040
Speaker 4: will make an important difference in terms of things like

79
00:04:55,560 --> 00:04:59,719
Speaker 4: terrorists than trade policy. If there are some long term implications,

80
00:04:59,760 --> 00:05:02,000
Speaker 4: but I think in the near term this is not

81
00:05:02,040 --> 00:05:03,799
Speaker 4: something that's probably easily trainable.

82
00:05:04,839 --> 00:05:08,760
Speaker 2: Charles Schwarbz Kathy Jones speaking there Following Biden's announcement, The

83
00:05:08,800 --> 00:05:12,239
Speaker 2: dollar edged lower in Asia trading today, Treasury yields dipped

84
00:05:12,279 --> 00:05:17,440
Speaker 2: across the curve, with US equity futures little changed. Those

85
00:05:17,440 --> 00:05:20,080
Speaker 2: are our top stories. Just last seeing the Sports news.

86
00:05:20,200 --> 00:05:23,080
Speaker 2: Xander chauffell At is one the oldest golf tournament in

87
00:05:23,160 --> 00:05:26,159
Speaker 2: the world. The thirty year old ended on nine hunder

88
00:05:26,240 --> 00:05:28,599
Speaker 2: par in the final round of the British Open. He

89
00:05:28,680 --> 00:05:32,080
Speaker 2: told Sky Sports News that the walk down the eighteenth

90
00:05:32,400 --> 00:05:33,600
Speaker 2: was a joy to behold.

91
00:05:34,080 --> 00:05:36,440
Speaker 6: It's an honor, it's a dream come true and just

92
00:05:36,520 --> 00:05:40,200
Speaker 6: the standing ovation coming on eighteen It's exactly how I've

93
00:05:40,200 --> 00:05:41,760
Speaker 6: seen it on TV and how I've dreampt of it.

94
00:05:42,839 --> 00:05:46,000
Speaker 2: Chauffellot's victory means all four major golf titles have been

95
00:05:46,040 --> 00:05:49,840
Speaker 2: won by Americans for the first time since nineteen eighty two.

96
00:05:50,520 --> 00:05:53,719
Speaker 2: President Biden's debate performance was only on the twenty seventh

97
00:05:53,760 --> 00:05:57,200
Speaker 2: of June, but now three and a half weeks later

98
00:05:57,240 --> 00:05:59,240
Speaker 2: he's dropping out. There really does seem to be no

99
00:05:59,360 --> 00:06:01,880
Speaker 2: playbook now for the next few weeks in America, because

100
00:06:01,880 --> 00:06:05,760
Speaker 2: it's the first time since Lyndon B. Johnson more than

101
00:06:05,839 --> 00:06:08,560
Speaker 2: half a century ago, that actually an incumbent president has

102
00:06:08,600 --> 00:06:12,719
Speaker 2: decided not to run for a second term. Vice President

103
00:06:12,839 --> 00:06:17,200
Speaker 2: Kamala Harris looks like the heir apparent. She's secured major endorsements,

104
00:06:17,240 --> 00:06:20,520
Speaker 2: and as we mentioned in the top stories, she's managed

105
00:06:20,520 --> 00:06:22,240
Speaker 2: to raise a lot of money in a matter of

106
00:06:22,400 --> 00:06:26,320
Speaker 2: just hours. And yet there are still so many questions

107
00:06:26,360 --> 00:06:29,800
Speaker 2: and many European leaders also thinking about what this new

108
00:06:29,839 --> 00:06:34,120
Speaker 2: matchup potentially between Harrison and Trump might actually look like.

109
00:06:35,040 --> 00:06:38,800
Speaker 2: Let's bring in some of our top editors and writers

110
00:06:38,839 --> 00:06:42,400
Speaker 2: this morning to discuss Our europe executive editor Chad Thomas

111
00:06:42,400 --> 00:06:46,320
Speaker 2: and our EMEMEA news director Roslin Matheson here with me

112
00:06:46,440 --> 00:06:49,680
Speaker 2: to think through the consequences of this. Of course, after

113
00:06:49,720 --> 00:06:51,960
Speaker 2: we got the news late night yesterday in the UK

114
00:06:52,040 --> 00:06:54,760
Speaker 2: anyway that Biden was dropping out, Roz, can I bring

115
00:06:54,800 --> 00:06:58,400
Speaker 2: you in first please? With Biden gone, can Harris secured

116
00:06:58,400 --> 00:07:02,440
Speaker 2: the support that she needs to win the Democratic presidential nomination.

117
00:07:03,320 --> 00:07:05,920
Speaker 1: Well, she's moving very swiftly to try and do just that.

118
00:07:06,000 --> 00:07:10,080
Speaker 1: She announced her intentions very deliberately, shortly after Biden made

119
00:07:10,240 --> 00:07:13,320
Speaker 1: his statement. We know that her people have been hitting

120
00:07:13,320 --> 00:07:16,480
Speaker 1: the phones. She came up very quickly also with an

121
00:07:16,520 --> 00:07:20,840
Speaker 1: immediate ad that was running within hours, quite a polished

122
00:07:20,880 --> 00:07:25,320
Speaker 1: ad attacking Trump. So certainly she's been preparing for this possibility,

123
00:07:25,760 --> 00:07:29,880
Speaker 1: and she's announced her intentions. A bunch of senior party officials,

124
00:07:29,920 --> 00:07:32,640
Speaker 1: some of the grandees like the Clintons and others, have

125
00:07:32,800 --> 00:07:38,240
Speaker 1: quickly endorsed her. Some Democratic law makers, including from battleground

126
00:07:38,280 --> 00:07:40,920
Speaker 1: states in the US, have endorsed her, which is important

127
00:07:40,960 --> 00:07:43,360
Speaker 1: because they were the ones who were pushing also for

128
00:07:43,440 --> 00:07:46,880
Speaker 1: Biden to go as the candidate, because they were worried

129
00:07:46,920 --> 00:07:49,840
Speaker 1: that they might also lose Congress as a result of

130
00:07:49,920 --> 00:07:52,200
Speaker 1: him running, and so that's also important. We've got some

131
00:07:52,240 --> 00:07:55,360
Speaker 1: senior donors lining up around that. There are some people

132
00:07:55,360 --> 00:07:57,040
Speaker 1: who were saying this really should be more of an

133
00:07:57,040 --> 00:07:59,960
Speaker 1: open contest, so we should have a convention where you

134
00:08:00,200 --> 00:08:03,800
Speaker 1: have candidates standing and buying for the nomination. But that

135
00:08:03,920 --> 00:08:06,640
Speaker 1: also means that you're going for another month without the

136
00:08:06,680 --> 00:08:10,160
Speaker 1: Democratic candidate locked in, and that's getting very very close

137
00:08:10,200 --> 00:08:13,240
Speaker 1: to November, and that's less runway for that candidate to

138
00:08:13,320 --> 00:08:15,560
Speaker 1: really make their mark against Donald Trump. So you can

139
00:08:15,600 --> 00:08:19,239
Speaker 1: see a real effort to coalesce around her. At this point,

140
00:08:19,280 --> 00:08:21,960
Speaker 1: it's pretty hard to see who else would dislodge her.

141
00:08:22,200 --> 00:08:26,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, Harris has had some difficulties as vice president. Although

142
00:08:26,440 --> 00:08:29,440
Speaker 2: I was speaking to a writer who has written the

143
00:08:29,440 --> 00:08:32,439
Speaker 2: biography of Kamala Harris's life and he was saying, actually,

144
00:08:32,520 --> 00:08:35,320
Speaker 2: with some constituents in the US, she's very popular. So

145
00:08:35,760 --> 00:08:38,840
Speaker 2: it depends how you look at those popularity figures. She's

146
00:08:38,880 --> 00:08:41,720
Speaker 2: also raised a lot of money in a matter of hours,

147
00:08:42,160 --> 00:08:45,200
Speaker 2: and so the key issue perhaps is how Harris is

148
00:08:45,240 --> 00:08:50,120
Speaker 2: going to define herself, redefine herself afresh to that US voter.

149
00:08:50,880 --> 00:08:54,120
Speaker 1: Well, she's able to at least cut the age question

150
00:08:55,160 --> 00:08:58,840
Speaker 1: out of the conversation immediately, and she also resonates with

151
00:08:58,960 --> 00:09:01,520
Speaker 1: women because she's taken in the charge with attacking the

152
00:09:01,520 --> 00:09:04,960
Speaker 1: Republicans over abortion, and so that's one area where she

153
00:09:05,000 --> 00:09:08,960
Speaker 1: can certainly set herself apart. She's got her record, you know,

154
00:09:09,000 --> 00:09:12,360
Speaker 1: as a prosecutor. She can use that to differentiate herself

155
00:09:12,720 --> 00:09:15,240
Speaker 1: from Donald Trump. But as you say, there's also some

156
00:09:15,280 --> 00:09:18,480
Speaker 1: weaknesses there, including the fact that she's really led on

157
00:09:18,520 --> 00:09:21,400
Speaker 1: some of the immigration policy over the years in the

158
00:09:21,440 --> 00:09:25,360
Speaker 1: Biden administration. That opens her to attack in turn from

159
00:09:25,360 --> 00:09:28,440
Speaker 1: Donald Trump on an issue that's quite important to US voters.

160
00:09:29,160 --> 00:09:31,760
Speaker 1: And she's untested in some other areas really, including on

161
00:09:31,840 --> 00:09:35,320
Speaker 1: hardcore economic policy. As you say, she's been around for

162
00:09:35,360 --> 00:09:37,520
Speaker 1: a while, but she's also a bit of an unknown

163
00:09:37,679 --> 00:09:40,400
Speaker 1: to some US voters. And how does she now define

164
00:09:40,400 --> 00:09:43,959
Speaker 1: herself as someone who won't just be another version of

165
00:09:44,080 --> 00:09:48,199
Speaker 1: Joe Biden for a further presidential term. But what's her

166
00:09:48,280 --> 00:09:50,960
Speaker 1: own stamp on that? So be interesting to see how

167
00:09:50,960 --> 00:09:52,840
Speaker 1: she starts to do that in the coming weeks.

168
00:09:52,920 --> 00:09:53,120
Speaker 5: Yeah.

169
00:09:53,120 --> 00:09:58,120
Speaker 2: Absolutely, Even her biographer was saying that actually she can

170
00:09:58,160 --> 00:10:01,320
Speaker 2: be quite private, quite god did about her own personal

171
00:10:01,400 --> 00:10:04,840
Speaker 2: views as opposed to her political views. Chad Thomas, let

172
00:10:04,880 --> 00:10:08,280
Speaker 2: me bring you in what would a Harris presidency mean

173
00:10:08,400 --> 00:10:11,040
Speaker 2: for NATO and Ukraine. We know that Harris has been

174
00:10:11,040 --> 00:10:15,280
Speaker 2: a prosecutor, but actually what is her view on foreign policy?

175
00:10:15,320 --> 00:10:17,040
Speaker 2: On security issues? What do we know?

176
00:10:19,040 --> 00:10:21,599
Speaker 6: Yeah, I think if you look at it from the

177
00:10:21,679 --> 00:10:24,320
Speaker 6: view of a world leader, and you look at Joe Biden,

178
00:10:24,400 --> 00:10:26,400
Speaker 6: you knew what you got with him, right, he was

179
00:10:26,800 --> 00:10:30,720
Speaker 6: five decades first in Congress, then vice president, president and

180
00:10:30,760 --> 00:10:34,760
Speaker 6: a true transatlanticist. I think with Kamala Harris it's a

181
00:10:34,800 --> 00:10:37,000
Speaker 6: little bit more of an open question. As Roz was

182
00:10:37,000 --> 00:10:40,480
Speaker 6: talking about, what are her specific views on topics. I

183
00:10:40,480 --> 00:10:43,640
Speaker 6: think it's clear though that you would see continuity in

184
00:10:43,760 --> 00:10:47,160
Speaker 6: terms of what her administration, if she were to win,

185
00:10:47,240 --> 00:10:52,520
Speaker 6: would do visa the Ukraine and NATO and European security,

186
00:10:53,400 --> 00:10:56,920
Speaker 6: very different than of course, what President Trump and his

187
00:10:57,080 --> 00:11:02,520
Speaker 6: vice presidential running mate would you regarding Ukraine. Jd Vance

188
00:11:02,559 --> 00:11:05,840
Speaker 6: has been very clear in saying that he doesn't see

189
00:11:06,360 --> 00:11:09,360
Speaker 6: further aid for Ukraine being in the US interest. So

190
00:11:09,440 --> 00:11:12,880
Speaker 6: that would clearly be a big break from a current

191
00:11:13,440 --> 00:11:15,920
Speaker 6: US foreign policy. But we'll have to wait and see,

192
00:11:15,920 --> 00:11:20,680
Speaker 6: really to see how Harris develops her policies in the

193
00:11:20,720 --> 00:11:24,240
Speaker 6: coming weeks. Really, that's all she has until the election

194
00:11:24,400 --> 00:11:26,280
Speaker 6: if she is in fact the nominee.

195
00:11:27,280 --> 00:11:30,000
Speaker 2: Chad, how do you think that Harris will deal with Trump?

196
00:11:30,120 --> 00:11:33,000
Speaker 2: In some of the debates that I've seen her in,

197
00:11:33,480 --> 00:11:37,040
Speaker 2: She's has got some quite pointed attack lines, and you know,

198
00:11:37,040 --> 00:11:39,160
Speaker 2: as a form of prosecutor, you might expect that, But

199
00:11:39,200 --> 00:11:42,520
Speaker 2: then Trump is a formidable debater and tweeter. How do

200
00:11:42,520 --> 00:11:44,320
Speaker 2: you think she'll deal with Donald Trump?

201
00:11:46,040 --> 00:11:48,400
Speaker 6: Yeah, Well, as raz was saying that the tacks have

202
00:11:48,480 --> 00:11:51,400
Speaker 6: already started, right, Kamala Harris has come up with an

203
00:11:51,440 --> 00:11:54,920
Speaker 6: ad attacking Donald Trump. At the top of the program,

204
00:11:55,000 --> 00:11:58,680
Speaker 6: here you were playing a clip from Donald Trump attacking her.

205
00:11:59,400 --> 00:12:02,320
Speaker 6: It's likely to get very personal between the two of them.

206
00:12:02,400 --> 00:12:07,240
Speaker 6: That's sort of them at the moment in US politics.

207
00:12:07,679 --> 00:12:11,520
Speaker 6: And Kamala Harris will certainly attack Trump and the Republicans

208
00:12:11,559 --> 00:12:14,960
Speaker 6: when it comes to social issue. She says that their

209
00:12:15,080 --> 00:12:19,000
Speaker 6: views on things like abortion are very extreme. That plays well,

210
00:12:19,000 --> 00:12:21,920
Speaker 6: of course with the Democratic base. So I think you

211
00:12:21,960 --> 00:12:26,160
Speaker 6: can expect that there will be certainly attacks from both

212
00:12:26,240 --> 00:12:28,280
Speaker 6: sides as this plays out.

213
00:12:28,800 --> 00:12:31,120
Speaker 2: Okay, so it's going to get personal. I mean that

214
00:12:31,320 --> 00:12:32,520
Speaker 2: seems very clear.

215
00:12:33,520 --> 00:12:33,840
Speaker 6: Roz.

216
00:12:34,400 --> 00:12:36,800
Speaker 2: Who will be Harris's running mate? I mean, if she

217
00:12:36,920 --> 00:12:40,080
Speaker 2: becomes the nominee, who would then do you think she

218
00:12:40,200 --> 00:12:43,560
Speaker 2: might pick? Because that could be another big moment when

219
00:12:43,640 --> 00:12:47,719
Speaker 2: that is unveiled. The other person the vice president pick.

220
00:12:48,120 --> 00:12:50,680
Speaker 1: Well, they could actually say a bit of a competition

221
00:12:50,840 --> 00:12:52,520
Speaker 1: and a bit of jostling. And the question is when

222
00:12:52,559 --> 00:12:54,600
Speaker 1: you look at Kamala Harris and her strengths. Who do

223
00:12:54,640 --> 00:12:57,199
Speaker 1: you pair her with, who can be a match for that,

224
00:12:57,240 --> 00:12:59,680
Speaker 1: who can pick up some of the areas where she's weaker,

225
00:12:59,800 --> 00:13:02,520
Speaker 1: for example, Or you know, in a geographical split in

226
00:13:02,559 --> 00:13:04,920
Speaker 1: the US, do you get someone who's got more he

227
00:13:05,000 --> 00:13:07,600
Speaker 1: comes from a Midwest background, for example, he can help

228
00:13:07,600 --> 00:13:10,000
Speaker 1: her in those states. There'll be a lot of conversation

229
00:13:10,240 --> 00:13:13,439
Speaker 1: around that combination. So you're looking at perhaps, you know,

230
00:13:13,880 --> 00:13:18,760
Speaker 1: the Minnesota governor Timothy Walls. Transport Secretary Pete Boutajegg has

231
00:13:18,800 --> 00:13:22,280
Speaker 1: also come up. Gretchen Whitmer. Of course, he's very popular

232
00:13:22,320 --> 00:13:25,880
Speaker 1: in Michigan. She's sort of ruled herself out already. But

233
00:13:25,920 --> 00:13:28,520
Speaker 1: there are some other governors, you know, including Gavin Newsom

234
00:13:28,520 --> 00:13:31,240
Speaker 1: of California, who could be in the mix. One person

235
00:13:31,240 --> 00:13:34,160
Speaker 1: who could be quite interesting actually is Mark Kelly from Arizona.

236
00:13:34,200 --> 00:13:36,800
Speaker 1: Of course, he's a hard person to throw arrows at.

237
00:13:36,880 --> 00:13:40,840
Speaker 1: He's a veteran, he's a former astronaut, and of course

238
00:13:40,960 --> 00:13:44,640
Speaker 1: he became, you know, a public figure because his wife,

239
00:13:45,000 --> 00:13:48,839
Speaker 1: Gabriel Giffis, was shot and so he's perhaps someone could

240
00:13:48,840 --> 00:13:52,120
Speaker 1: be an intriguing combination for her. But basically you need

241
00:13:52,160 --> 00:13:55,880
Speaker 1: to find someone who's a balance possibly from the Midwest

242
00:13:55,920 --> 00:13:57,600
Speaker 1: in particularly to help her with those dates.

243
00:13:57,720 --> 00:14:00,319
Speaker 2: Yeah, Chad, how do you think investors will think about this?

244
00:14:02,160 --> 00:14:07,280
Speaker 6: Well, investors, obviously they're looking for certainty, and this now

245
00:14:08,360 --> 00:14:12,800
Speaker 6: throws uncertainty into the whole debate. They were already starting

246
00:14:12,840 --> 00:14:15,960
Speaker 6: to trade in particularly around certain securities, with the idea

247
00:14:15,960 --> 00:14:18,000
Speaker 6: that Trump was going to win and then he would

248
00:14:18,040 --> 00:14:20,480
Speaker 6: bring in tariffs and he would do things that would

249
00:14:20,680 --> 00:14:26,480
Speaker 6: benefit certain industries. Now, with Biden out and potentially Harris

250
00:14:26,560 --> 00:14:29,960
Speaker 6: as the candidate or obviously someone else if not her,

251
00:14:30,880 --> 00:14:33,040
Speaker 6: this brings uncertainty to the market and they're going to

252
00:14:33,160 --> 00:14:37,160
Speaker 6: have to recalibrate to see what they think once the

253
00:14:37,200 --> 00:14:40,240
Speaker 6: nominee is in place, what the market thinks in terms

254
00:14:40,280 --> 00:14:41,000
Speaker 6: of who's going to win.

255
00:14:41,960 --> 00:14:46,400
Speaker 2: Well, how difficult is it to have now bluntly a

256
00:14:46,520 --> 00:14:50,120
Speaker 2: lamed up president in the White House at a time

257
00:14:50,400 --> 00:14:54,240
Speaker 2: of such uncertainty and insecurity in many parts of the world.

258
00:14:54,680 --> 00:14:58,520
Speaker 1: Well, it's interesting, of course, because Benjamin Netanyahu is in

259
00:14:58,600 --> 00:15:01,440
Speaker 1: the US and is due to mature Biden tomorrow and

260
00:15:01,480 --> 00:15:04,760
Speaker 1: then address Congress on Wednesday, and of course bb as

261
00:15:04,800 --> 00:15:07,240
Speaker 1: Isnah would be going there with to get some specific

262
00:15:07,280 --> 00:15:10,120
Speaker 1: things from Joe Biden. The messaging from the White House

263
00:15:10,160 --> 00:15:11,920
Speaker 1: is that Joe Biden is very much still in the

264
00:15:11,920 --> 00:15:15,560
Speaker 1: White House through this selection. He doesn't intend to step down,

265
00:15:15,600 --> 00:15:20,600
Speaker 1: and he'll be hoping to enact foreign policy throughout, including

266
00:15:21,160 --> 00:15:23,320
Speaker 1: on the war in the Middle East, including on Russia's

267
00:15:23,320 --> 00:15:26,880
Speaker 1: invasion of Ukraine, including with China. But with a big

268
00:15:26,880 --> 00:15:29,360
Speaker 1: but as Chad was saying, you know, leaders are really

269
00:15:29,360 --> 00:15:31,720
Speaker 1: looking ahead to say, well, it's probably either going to

270
00:15:31,720 --> 00:15:33,760
Speaker 1: be Kamala Harris or Donald Trump in the White House

271
00:15:34,080 --> 00:15:37,920
Speaker 1: come January, and really can Biden do anything in between?

272
00:15:38,160 --> 00:15:41,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, thank you so much, Lawis for being with us

273
00:15:41,560 --> 00:15:45,120
Speaker 2: this morning. That is Bloomberg's EMEA News director Rosin Matheson,

274
00:15:45,160 --> 00:15:48,160
Speaker 2: and to Chad Thomas, our Europe executive editor, thank you

275
00:15:48,240 --> 00:15:51,560
Speaker 2: so much for your time and your explanations and insights.

276
00:15:52,040 --> 00:15:55,920
Speaker 2: Dan Moraine, journalists and author of the biography Kumala's Way

277
00:15:55,920 --> 00:15:59,440
Speaker 2: and American Life, spoke to me today about Harris's prospect

278
00:15:59,520 --> 00:16:03,280
Speaker 2: of secure hearing the nomination and running for the US presidency.

279
00:16:03,640 --> 00:16:06,480
Speaker 2: He told me that despite Donald Trump saying that Harris

280
00:16:06,520 --> 00:16:10,160
Speaker 2: would be easier to beat than Biden, people who underestimate

281
00:16:10,240 --> 00:16:13,760
Speaker 2: Kamala Harris quite end up losing for.

282
00:16:13,760 --> 00:16:16,640
Speaker 5: A person who will be on the most public of

283
00:16:16,720 --> 00:16:20,360
Speaker 5: stages running for the president of the United States. She

284
00:16:20,440 --> 00:16:25,720
Speaker 5: doesn't tell you very much about herself her personal views. Yeah,

285
00:16:25,760 --> 00:16:28,040
Speaker 5: I mean, we know what her political views are, that's

286
00:16:28,080 --> 00:16:30,480
Speaker 5: not a secret. But she can be a very closed book.

287
00:16:31,480 --> 00:16:36,440
Speaker 5: She's a fascinating character, you know, a true California somebody

288
00:16:36,440 --> 00:16:39,000
Speaker 5: who only could have come from California. I think her

289
00:16:39,040 --> 00:16:42,160
Speaker 5: mother was an immigrant from India, her father an immigrant

290
00:16:42,200 --> 00:16:46,760
Speaker 5: from Jamaica. They met at that most California institutions, the

291
00:16:46,880 --> 00:16:51,320
Speaker 5: University of California at Berkeley in the nineteen sixties. She

292
00:16:51,840 --> 00:16:55,800
Speaker 5: is truly a product of California. Can't imagine any other

293
00:16:55,880 --> 00:16:59,120
Speaker 5: state that could have produced quite like Kamla Harris.

294
00:17:00,120 --> 00:17:03,560
Speaker 2: That's very interesting. Do you think her background then, as

295
00:17:03,600 --> 00:17:06,119
Speaker 2: you say, we know much more about her public life

296
00:17:06,119 --> 00:17:09,200
Speaker 2: then her background as a prosecutor then as the ag

297
00:17:09,400 --> 00:17:11,880
Speaker 2: the Attorney general for California. Do you think that's going

298
00:17:11,960 --> 00:17:14,520
Speaker 2: to help or hurt her presidential campaign? How will it

299
00:17:14,640 --> 00:17:16,320
Speaker 2: shape this campaign?

300
00:17:18,000 --> 00:17:18,200
Speaker 3: Well?

301
00:17:18,400 --> 00:17:22,199
Speaker 5: I think it can only help her campaign. You know,

302
00:17:22,320 --> 00:17:25,520
Speaker 5: she was a prosecutor. She put people in prison. She's

303
00:17:25,600 --> 00:17:30,960
Speaker 5: running against a candidate who's been convicted of thirty four felonies.

304
00:17:32,000 --> 00:17:34,600
Speaker 5: Prosecutor versus a fella seems to me to be a

305
00:17:34,720 --> 00:17:38,600
Speaker 5: pretty stark contrast. You know, she will be portrayed as

306
00:17:38,680 --> 00:17:43,720
Speaker 5: being a California liberal. She certainly is liberal, and she's

307
00:17:43,760 --> 00:17:46,720
Speaker 5: certainly in California. But she spent a lot of her

308
00:17:46,760 --> 00:17:53,879
Speaker 5: career putting people had committed serious crimes in prison, and

309
00:17:53,920 --> 00:17:57,040
Speaker 5: the focus of much of her work as a prosecutor

310
00:17:57,200 --> 00:18:01,840
Speaker 5: was to go after sex trafficking, you know, crimes against children.

311
00:18:03,800 --> 00:18:06,040
Speaker 5: I think it's kind of hard to attack that now.

312
00:18:06,240 --> 00:18:09,760
Speaker 5: You know, she opposed the death penalty, the death penalty.

313
00:18:11,280 --> 00:18:15,760
Speaker 5: Her stand on her death penalty probably caught well, certainly

314
00:18:15,880 --> 00:18:20,200
Speaker 5: cost her some support when she was just district attorney

315
00:18:20,200 --> 00:18:23,160
Speaker 5: in San Francisco, the main prosecutor in the city county

316
00:18:23,200 --> 00:18:27,480
Speaker 5: in San Francisco. I'm not sure that that issue is

317
00:18:27,640 --> 00:18:31,400
Speaker 5: necessarily going to resonate quite so much in twenty twenty four.

318
00:18:31,600 --> 00:18:32,960
Speaker 5: We'll see.

319
00:18:33,160 --> 00:18:34,760
Speaker 2: Do you think she's going to be able to unite

320
00:18:34,760 --> 00:18:37,400
Speaker 2: the Democratic Party behind her. It's still not a certainty

321
00:18:37,440 --> 00:18:40,879
Speaker 2: that she will become the Democratic Party nominee.

322
00:18:41,840 --> 00:18:45,320
Speaker 5: Right Well, she's got so much momentum built up up

323
00:18:45,920 --> 00:18:51,800
Speaker 5: this first day it's been quite impressive. The last report

324
00:18:51,880 --> 00:18:55,080
Speaker 5: I saw was that was that she had raised sixty

325
00:18:55,200 --> 00:18:59,560
Speaker 5: million dollars today, which is just the phenomenal sum if

326
00:18:59,560 --> 00:19:05,400
Speaker 5: that's true. So, of course somebody could mount a challenge

327
00:19:05,400 --> 00:19:11,040
Speaker 5: to her. It's possible, but I think she has a

328
00:19:11,160 --> 00:19:15,480
Speaker 5: huge amount of momentum right now. It would be very

329
00:19:15,600 --> 00:19:20,400
Speaker 5: tough to knock her off as as the Democratic nominee.

330
00:19:20,880 --> 00:19:24,040
Speaker 2: In terms of her best qualities, of what her team

331
00:19:24,119 --> 00:19:26,520
Speaker 2: might put forward. What sort of president do you think

332
00:19:26,560 --> 00:19:27,200
Speaker 2: she might make?

333
00:19:28,640 --> 00:19:33,280
Speaker 5: It's a question for every vice president. You know, can

334
00:19:33,320 --> 00:19:37,680
Speaker 5: a vice president be a Harry Truman? Who was Franklin

335
00:19:37,760 --> 00:19:40,960
Speaker 5: delan Or Roosevelt's vice president. Nobody thought very much of

336
00:19:41,080 --> 00:19:44,480
Speaker 5: him when he was vice president. He didn't have much

337
00:19:44,480 --> 00:19:47,320
Speaker 5: of a role at all in the Roosevelt administration, and

338
00:19:47,400 --> 00:19:51,960
Speaker 5: yet he became a very consequential president. So will Kamala

339
00:19:51,960 --> 00:19:56,000
Speaker 5: Harris be a Harry Truman? You know, we will see.

340
00:19:57,119 --> 00:20:03,560
Speaker 5: But you know, people who underestimate Kamala Harris tend to lose,

341
00:20:04,560 --> 00:20:09,760
Speaker 5: and so I wouldn't underestimate her in terms of her position.

342
00:20:09,880 --> 00:20:13,760
Speaker 5: She's going to be a Biden Democrat. She's going to

343
00:20:13,800 --> 00:20:17,720
Speaker 5: be supportive of Israel, She's certainly going to be supportive

344
00:20:17,760 --> 00:20:23,120
Speaker 5: of the war in Ukraine. She's going to be very

345
00:20:23,240 --> 00:20:30,160
Speaker 5: supportive of NATO, So she would continue the Biden tradition

346
00:20:30,600 --> 00:20:33,320
Speaker 5: in those ways. I have no doubt.

347
00:20:33,720 --> 00:20:36,240
Speaker 2: What do you think drives Kamala Harris? How do you

348
00:20:36,240 --> 00:20:39,879
Speaker 2: think she's going to deal with Donald Trump? He said

349
00:20:39,880 --> 00:20:42,360
Speaker 2: that Harris would be easier to defeat than Biden.

350
00:20:43,480 --> 00:20:47,080
Speaker 5: Again, I think people who underestimate Kamala Harris end up losing.

351
00:20:47,440 --> 00:20:50,520
Speaker 5: And she would not be the first man to underestimate.

352
00:20:51,680 --> 00:20:54,680
Speaker 5: She can be formidable. She can be a very good candidate.

353
00:20:54,920 --> 00:20:58,880
Speaker 5: You know, I moderated a debate that she had when

354
00:20:58,880 --> 00:21:05,119
Speaker 5: she ran for attorney against a very accomplished prosecutor and

355
00:21:05,280 --> 00:21:07,760
Speaker 5: the head of the district, the district attorney of Los

356
00:21:07,800 --> 00:21:10,800
Speaker 5: Angeles County. So by on accounts, he should have won

357
00:21:10,840 --> 00:21:15,640
Speaker 5: that race. He was very accomplished, but she she bested

358
00:21:15,720 --> 00:21:19,600
Speaker 5: him in that debate. I covered a debate the one

359
00:21:19,600 --> 00:21:22,000
Speaker 5: debate she had when she ran for the United States

360
00:21:22,080 --> 00:21:26,479
Speaker 5: sand twenty sixteen. And you know, she's very good on

361
00:21:26,520 --> 00:21:29,000
Speaker 5: her feet. So if Donald Trump thinks that she would

362
00:21:29,040 --> 00:21:31,240
Speaker 5: be a pushover in the debate, I'm not so sure

363
00:21:31,280 --> 00:21:32,840
Speaker 5: that he would be correct.

364
00:21:33,960 --> 00:21:36,680
Speaker 7: This is Bloomberg Daybreak Europe, your morning brief on the

365
00:21:36,760 --> 00:21:39,840
Speaker 7: stories making news from London to Wall Street and beyond.

366
00:21:40,119 --> 00:21:44,080
Speaker 2: Look for us on your podcast feed every morning, on Apple, Spotify,

367
00:21:44,160 --> 00:21:46,120
Speaker 2: and anywhere else you get your podcasts.

368
00:21:46,160 --> 00:21:49,200
Speaker 7: You can also listen live each morning on London DAB Radio,

369
00:21:49,240 --> 00:21:51,840
Speaker 7: the Bloomberg Business app, and Bloomberg dot Com.

370
00:21:51,960 --> 00:21:54,719
Speaker 2: Our flagship New York station, is also available on your

371
00:21:54,760 --> 00:22:00,000
Speaker 2: Amazon Alexa devices. Just Say Alexa played Bloomberg eleven thirty,

372
00:22:00,040 --> 00:22:01,080
Speaker 2: Caroline Hepka.

373
00:22:00,880 --> 00:22:03,320
Speaker 7: And I'm Stephen. Carol. Join us again tomorrow morning for

374
00:22:03,440 --> 00:22:05,840
Speaker 7: all the news you need to start your day right

375
00:22:05,840 --> 00:22:09,320
Speaker 7: here on Bloomberg Daybreak Europe