WEBVTT - Todd: voters don't vote on electability

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<v Speaker 1>Global business news twenty four hours a day at Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>dot com, the Radio plus mobile. Last and on your radio.

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<v Speaker 1>This is a Bloomberg Business Flash and I'm Karin Moscow.

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<v Speaker 1>They update. It's brought to you by Sector Spider e

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<v Speaker 1>a Reserve Bank of San Francisco President John Williams saying

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<v Speaker 1>the U S economy appears to be weathering cooler global growth,

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<v Speaker 1>and he repeated that the central bank will race interest

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<v Speaker 1>rates at a gradual pace. I think we're still trying

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<v Speaker 1>to make sure that the data we've been seen unemployment,

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<v Speaker 1>the data we've been seen on inflation are are real,

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<v Speaker 1>not a mirage. But given that, I think we're very

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<v Speaker 1>much on the right track that will be raising UH

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<v Speaker 1>interest rates. And again that's Federal Reserve Bank of San

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<v Speaker 1>Francisco President John Williams. Oil leading commodities lower, pulling down

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<v Speaker 1>the currencies of raw material producing nations, and helping lift

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<v Speaker 1>government bonds. Check the markets every fifteen minutes throughout the

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<v Speaker 1>trading day on Bloomberg SNP eveny Future is down five

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<v Speaker 1>points now eveny futures down fifty and nasadac eveny futures

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<v Speaker 1>down seven and a half decks. In Germany's down less

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<v Speaker 1>than a tenth of upper set ten. Your treasury up

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<v Speaker 1>a thirty seconds. The yield one point eight six percent,

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<v Speaker 1>Nomax screwed oil down two percent or seventy nine cents

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<v Speaker 1>to thirty eight sixty of aryl comex goold is little

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<v Speaker 1>changed at twelve announced. The euro a dollar eleven ninety

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<v Speaker 1>six again one thirteen point five eight And that's a

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Business flash, Tom and Berry, thanks so much, Karen.

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<v Speaker 1>More headlines out of Cypress Cypress Foreign Ministry. This is

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<v Speaker 1>mostly coming off their Twitter feed some other sources as well.

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<v Speaker 1>The Egypt air hijacker arrested that according to the Cypress

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<v Speaker 1>Foreign Ministry. That from Bloomberg News. Egypt air hijacker arrested

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<v Speaker 1>from the Cypress Foreign Ministry. Chuck Todd is a busy guy.

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<v Speaker 1>That's always true. An election year, Meet the Press of

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<v Speaker 1>course on Sundays, Meet the Press Daily on MSNBC five pm.

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<v Speaker 1>Is well, how's that going, Mr Todd? Are you enjoying

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<v Speaker 1>like doing the daily thing as well as the Sunday

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<v Speaker 1>big event in the morning. Absolutely, absolutely. I I you know,

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<v Speaker 1>I was always sort of uh geared toward a daily mindset,

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<v Speaker 1>and for a for a year I was just in

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<v Speaker 1>this weekly and I would be you know, uh frustrated

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<v Speaker 1>not the right word, but I feel, like floy there's

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<v Speaker 1>some stories that I wanted to cover and I can't

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<v Speaker 1>get to it one hour once a week. So I

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<v Speaker 1>know that feeling. I know because I saw a pole

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<v Speaker 1>yesterday or the day before. Unfortunately, I can't sell you

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<v Speaker 1>it's from I'm sorry, folks. I'm an amateur at this,

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<v Speaker 1>Unlike Mr Todd, I was thunder string out. It's understandable.

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<v Speaker 1>But the California poll of Clinton Trump I've never seen

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<v Speaker 1>in my life, folks. It's at least thirty difference. I'm

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<v Speaker 1>gonna say, sixty three twenty nine, something like that. Where

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<v Speaker 1>is this going? If we see like that, where's this going?

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<v Speaker 1>This is going where you have to start wondering if

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<v Speaker 1>the House is in play. It's not just hilly Clinton

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<v Speaker 1>winning the White House. It's not just Democrats probably picking

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<v Speaker 1>up the Senate. When you see numbers like that, um

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<v Speaker 1>then and she could actually cross the six barrier in

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<v Speaker 1>a place like California book, even some of the more

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<v Speaker 1>Republican districts are going to fall under the certain very

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<v Speaker 1>duly Chuck very Dulds wants to jump in. But I

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<v Speaker 1>gotta ask the question, now, how does that change Wisconsin

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<v Speaker 1>and the primaries that we see coming up. Well, I

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<v Speaker 1>don't know. And and because voters don't vote on electability.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, every time we'll talk about it, a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of pundits or analysts or whatever you want, but most

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<v Speaker 1>voters don't vote strategically. Okay, they vote with the candidate

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<v Speaker 1>they like or the candidate that sends the message that

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<v Speaker 1>they want to send. In primaries, they don't. They don't.

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<v Speaker 1>Most voters don't vote on electability. And most voters, by

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<v Speaker 1>the way, believe the candida the port is the most electable,

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<v Speaker 1>right they because they don't want to believe that somehow

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<v Speaker 1>the candidate support is not electable. So this is always

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<v Speaker 1>such a but but that's where we're headed here. Um

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<v Speaker 1>I can think of this. Wisconsin is sort of like

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<v Speaker 1>our halftime version of New Hampshire, meaning it's by itself

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<v Speaker 1>on the calendar, the delegate splits, there aren't a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of delicates at stake, but perception and momentum is what's

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<v Speaker 1>at stake. So for the Trump and not Trump movement

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<v Speaker 1>both sides, it's must win, right. Trump needs to win

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<v Speaker 1>it to put to rest this idea that he can't

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<v Speaker 1>um get the primary, get the part of the United

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<v Speaker 1>and the Stop Trump movement desperately needs just to show

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<v Speaker 1>that they can beat him in a place like Wisconsin,

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<v Speaker 1>to show that they have the juice to stop him.

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<v Speaker 1>So it is sort of a perception wise really important

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<v Speaker 1>even if the delicate splits aren't that consequential coming up

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<v Speaker 1>in Wisconsin, Coldplay and Beyonce followed by Trump and crews

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<v Speaker 1>in our halftime show. So you you touched upon something

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<v Speaker 1>that I think is fascinating, which is what actually occurs

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<v Speaker 1>if it's a Trump Clinton election, And I think the

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<v Speaker 1>voting public is unaware of exactly why the so called

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<v Speaker 1>establishment on the Republican side is in such a panic

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<v Speaker 1>because there's the possibility, I'm not I don't even want

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<v Speaker 1>to say probability, but a real possibility of Trump spectacularly

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<v Speaker 1>grabbing all this free press, and then when it comes

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<v Speaker 1>to the electoral College and all the state, uh Senate

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<v Speaker 1>and congressional races, just having the table run against them

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<v Speaker 1>is that the bottom line as to why the GP

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<v Speaker 1>establishment is so nervous, they're they're fearing a total blowout.

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<v Speaker 1>It's not just a blowout, they're fearing something even greater

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<v Speaker 1>than that, which is generation defining. For what's the what's

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<v Speaker 1>the largest, the fastest voting block age wise in America? Millennials? Okay, Uh,

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<v Speaker 1>they're now the largest part of the workforce. Uh, they

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<v Speaker 1>could be the largest part of the electorate at some

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<v Speaker 1>point they're going to be. They're that big. That's sort

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<v Speaker 1>of like the Baby Boomers when they finally became voters

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<v Speaker 1>and how impactful they were. And the point is this

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<v Speaker 1>Trump could define the party with these voters for their

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<v Speaker 1>rest of their generation. And that's what they're fearful of.

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<v Speaker 1>That this this leads to sort of a um a

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<v Speaker 1>ten year at least eight decade set back, if not more,

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<v Speaker 1>of the Republican Party's branding, branding efforts with the sort

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<v Speaker 1>of rising American electorate, right, young folks and more diverse folks.

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<v Speaker 1>So let's let me ask the obvious follow up, isn't

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<v Speaker 1>Trump really the candidate that the GOP has been subconsciously

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<v Speaker 1>drifting towards a strong leader who doesn't uh, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>trust his gut not his brain, who doesn't really think

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<v Speaker 1>in terms of, hey, let's get the greatest experts we

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<v Speaker 1>can have, and and the up some interesting approach. It's

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<v Speaker 1>just a lot of things that we've seen from the

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<v Speaker 1>GOP in general, just manifest in one loud, angry, charismatic candidate. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>I would say it's where the it's where the voters

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<v Speaker 1>have been drifting. It's where the activists have been drifting.

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<v Speaker 1>It's not where the leaders have been drifting, right, it's

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<v Speaker 1>sort of the leaders have been using um, these using

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<v Speaker 1>anger and using different ways to sort of to motivate

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<v Speaker 1>this part of their electorate. Well, guess what I think.

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<v Speaker 1>It's sort of you know, use whatever an nowogy, you

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<v Speaker 1>reput so Frankenstein, whatever you want to do. But their

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<v Speaker 1>failure to then deliver on sort of this uh, the

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<v Speaker 1>sort of crazy promises that they made if all the

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<v Speaker 1>different things they would stop or bring America back and

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<v Speaker 1>all these things, and this group of voters actually believes them,

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<v Speaker 1>and and there's now looking around going hey what about me?

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<v Speaker 1>What have you done for me? And this is where

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<v Speaker 1>Trump is still that's vacuum. You have that voice and

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<v Speaker 1>I go back to an important tweet that defines Chuck

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<v Speaker 1>Todd and uh, your contribution to this campaign. We have

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<v Speaker 1>to go to Cedar Falls, Waterloo five or six one three.

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<v Speaker 1>Don't care that my bread, what my bracket has done.

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<v Speaker 1>I loved that a school from my late dad's hometown

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<v Speaker 1>beat in Kansas, go University of Northern Iowa. I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>if you go out to Cedar Falls where that miracle happened,

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, Chuck Todd. Those people are being heard more

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<v Speaker 1>in this campaign, whether it's Trump or Sanders or frankly others,

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<v Speaker 1>than at any time in our history. Well, this is

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<v Speaker 1>what we're in. Well, I would say the last time

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<v Speaker 1>we had a we had uh, an economic anxiety riven public.

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<v Speaker 1>This this concept, you know, this sort of divided and

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<v Speaker 1>this sort of split was probably when we were transitioning

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<v Speaker 1>from an agrarian economy to with industrial time. And that's

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<v Speaker 1>what's happening. Right. We know what, we know why this

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<v Speaker 1>is taking place. We know why they're big winners of

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<v Speaker 1>blue in this economic recovery that we've been experiencing since

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<v Speaker 1>the Great Recession. Um, it's very similar to how we

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<v Speaker 1>ended up with a Great Depression. Right, there's new migration,

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<v Speaker 1>and people are migrating to cities to look for work,

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<v Speaker 1>and it's abandoning these smaller cities in bigger towns like

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<v Speaker 1>a Cedar Falls Waterloo area. We know why this is

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<v Speaker 1>all happening, but we're in the middle of it, and

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<v Speaker 1>there are losers here and it's a whole sort of

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<v Speaker 1>lost generation, forgotten voters here that that's who Trump's times. Chuck,

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<v Speaker 1>thank you so much. Really looking forward to uh MSNBC

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<v Speaker 1>is working on Sunday eleven and three uh pm. You

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<v Speaker 1>can hear it. I'm Bloomberg Radio. Of course, you can

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<v Speaker 1>see Meet the Press with Chuck Todd. You can do

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<v Speaker 1>that Sundays on NBC eleven AM and three pm Sundays

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<v Speaker 1>here on Bloomberg Radio. Very I I hate to say this,

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<v Speaker 1>and I'm biased on this because of my family, but

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<v Speaker 1>there's something about having people doing TV journalism in America

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<v Speaker 1>that come from places that aren't within a stone's through

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<v Speaker 1>the Hudson River, you know, or some valley outside l A.

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<v Speaker 1>You get a different perspective. I'm fond of quoting Spoild

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<v Speaker 1>and Gray. I don't live in America. I live in

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<v Speaker 1>a small island off the east coast of America, and

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<v Speaker 1>it gives you a very different perspective. You know. That's

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<v Speaker 1>why I try and get out and travel around the country,

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<v Speaker 1>go to places like Seattle and Port. And I'll give

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<v Speaker 1>a massive shout out to Helper and Heilman who have

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<v Speaker 1>done that. People think they sort of show up, and

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<v Speaker 1>they show up at four forty five and put the

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<v Speaker 1>show together at five and like the way I do it. Fortunately,

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<v Speaker 1>Helper in Heilman are working their tails off traveling the

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<v Speaker 1>country in this most unusual election season. We'll do much

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<v Speaker 1>more in this of course, the coverage April five, really

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<v Speaker 1>coming up on us next week Wisconsin April five, and

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<v Speaker 1>then we go on, of course to a small swore

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<v Speaker 1>away which is becoming more important by the day in

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<v Speaker 1>New York State on both sides of the island. Interesting

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<v Speaker 1>to see what Mr Sanders does and the great state

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<v Speaker 1>of New York as well, what we know his oil self.

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<v Speaker 1>By seventy three cents thirty eight dollars sixty six of

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<v Speaker 1>Beryl coming up a conversation with yakulm Fells of Pimco,

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<v Speaker 1>Barry Mit Hilton from Michael McKee, Tom King, Bloomberg Surveillance