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Speaker 2: Welcome to the Monday edition of Balance of Power on
Speaker 2: Bloomberg Radio, on the satellite and on YouTube. Where you
Speaker 2: can find us right now search Bloomberg Global News. We
Speaker 2: have a lot to talk about. I hope you had
Speaker 2: a great weekend because we have a lot to catch
Speaker 2: up on here from the presidential campaign. New numbers coming
Speaker 2: from Kamala Harris that are I popping two hundred million
Speaker 2: dollars since Joe Biden endorsed her last Sunday. Matter of fact,
Speaker 2: if you just stop down here and think for a
Speaker 2: minute about what has happened in the last two weeks,
Speaker 2: you might lose your breath. We're going to be spending
Speaker 2: some time with Don Levy from Siena College. Remember he
Speaker 2: was out with the first numbers on this race last
Speaker 2: week after Joe Biden dropped out. The Sage at Siena
Speaker 2: College will join with Remarkable News as well abroad, and
Speaker 2: this comes on the heels of Donald Trump speaking at
Speaker 2: the Crypto Conference. We were watching an election over the
Speaker 2: weekend alongside the Olympics. We were watching an election in Venezuela.
Speaker 2: And now a redhead on the terminal Venezuela, SOB says,
Speaker 2: Machado is suspect of electoral sabotage. We're going to get
Speaker 2: into this a little bit later on here with real
Speaker 2: questions about whether Maduro in fact won that election fairly.
Speaker 2: And then there's Israel. This is something that with all
Speaker 2: of the other news swirling around here, has not gotten
Speaker 2: enough attention. As Israel, weis this response to this attack
Speaker 2: and the goal on Heights and whether to open a
Speaker 2: new front essentially, or to wage a new war against Hesbalah.
Speaker 2: And that's where we start our conversation now with Ian Marlow,
Speaker 2: Bloomberg's senior reporter with his eye on geopolitics for US. Ian,
Speaker 2: it's great to see you. Welcome Anthony Blincoln, warning that
Speaker 2: this could very quickly spin out of control if Israel
Speaker 2: in fact decides to declare war against Hesbelah. Talk to
Speaker 2: us about the delicate nature of this moment and when
Speaker 2: we might know Tel Aviv's and Jerusalem's intentions here.
Speaker 3: Yeah, this is something we've seen. Over the course of
Speaker 3: the war. Hesbolah on the Northern Front has been keeping
Speaker 3: up the pressure on Israel, and this so far both
Speaker 3: sides have managed to avoid the sort of escalation that
Speaker 3: everyone has feared with most of the you know, most
Speaker 3: of the carnage and tragedy happening down in Gaza. This
Speaker 3: is is obviously an exception to This is something I
Speaker 3: think no one in the US, Israel, or probably even
Speaker 3: Hesbola and maybe even Iran wanted to see. It's hard
Speaker 3: to see this strike on on kids, you know, twelve
Speaker 3: dead being something that's strategic or in Hesbelah's interest. And obviously,
Speaker 3: the last time Israel and Hesbelah tangled, you know, it
Speaker 3: didn't go well for Hesbelah, it didn't go well for
Speaker 3: Southern Route. So this is something that I think the
Speaker 3: US has been focused on making sure that Israel keeps
Speaker 3: a lid on the northern Front. There's a lot of
Speaker 3: heated rhetoric, especially from the far right, who have wanted
Speaker 3: to expand the war in Gaza to the northern Front. Yes, right,
Speaker 3: obviously there's a bunch of people displaced from northern Israel
Speaker 3: and they want to get those people back, and these
Speaker 3: types of attacks mean that that's impossible right now. And
Speaker 3: then I put a lot of pressure on Israel to
Speaker 3: do something.
Speaker 2: Well, you put that in great context. It's started to
Speaker 2: feel like maybe things were cooling on the northern border
Speaker 2: here where there's been continuous shelling for months and months.
Speaker 2: I mean, how you kind of frame what is a
Speaker 2: war and what is not is its own question right now.
Speaker 2: But what is Benjamin Ettnya who considering in terms of options?
Speaker 2: And if in fact Israel did make a pronounced strike
Speaker 2: against Hesbelah, would that not draw Iran into the fight?
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's a great question. I think there's already been
Speaker 3: a couple of sort of targeted strikes deeper inside Lebanon,
Speaker 3: and those were sort of aimed at weapons cachets and things.
Speaker 3: It's not clear. I mean, that's obviously not the main response.
Speaker 3: They're still pledging and looking into some kind of much
Speaker 3: bigger response. I mean, Israel has a sort of retaliation
Speaker 3: calculus when it comes to, you know, losing their civilians
Speaker 3: versus what sort of you know, fatalities they want to
Speaker 3: inflict on the enemies around them. And I think that's
Speaker 3: really worrying for US officials who are trying to keep this,
Speaker 3: you know, tamped down while they pursue cease fire negotiations,
Speaker 3: you know, with Israel and Hamas, which is sort of
Speaker 3: a separate issue. But right now, I think there's probably
Speaker 3: going to be a lot of pressure growing on Netanyahu.
Speaker 3: He himself has you know, spoken out harshly in terms
Speaker 3: of the retaliation he's promised. Yes, So we're potentially looking
Speaker 3: at probably air strikes of some kind, whether they go
Speaker 3: into Beirut, whether they're aimed at leaders or sort of
Speaker 3: Hasbala installations. It's kind of yet to be seen. So
Speaker 3: I think everyone right now is sort of just waiting,
Speaker 3: you know, waiting to see what sort of shaped this takes.
Speaker 2: Right the administration the US has made clear that there
Speaker 2: are going to be limits to our involvement if in
Speaker 2: fact this does cross over the northern border. John Kirby
Speaker 2: said earlier today at the White House, I saw a
Speaker 2: headline on the terminal that there is no sunlight between
Speaker 2: Joe Biden and Kamala Harris when it comes to our
Speaker 2: policy in Israel. Joe Biden will still be the president
Speaker 2: obviously for the next many months, I Kamala Harris did win.
Speaker 2: Would we see a difference in this relationship.
Speaker 3: It's a really interesting question because the Middle East is
Speaker 3: the one area of foreign policy that people have pointed out.
Speaker 3: You know, when you look at Kamala Harris's statement since
Speaker 3: the war began, she's always been a little bit out
Speaker 3: in front of where Biden has been with the rhetoric,
Speaker 3: with the sort of pressure on Israel, sort of emphasizing
Speaker 3: policy and civilian casualties and the rest of it. So,
Speaker 3: you know, but when it comes to policy, they've been
Speaker 3: in lockstep, and she's part of the administration, so it's
Speaker 3: hard to see, you know, at least in the moment,
Speaker 3: especially with Biden' Still.
Speaker 2: It was an interesting element last week with her talking,
Speaker 2: saying almost word for word the same things that Joe
Speaker 2: Biden has been saying, but having them being interpreted very
Speaker 2: differently from her supporters. I guess it's something that we'll
Speaker 2: keep an eye on them.
Speaker 3: Yeah, and the Israelis also were very upset.
Speaker 2: By her that right. Yeah, even though we've heard the
Speaker 2: same statements from Joe Biden. Ian Marlow covering some pretty
Speaker 2: heavy stuff for us here. Bloomberg Senior reporter. Great to
Speaker 2: see me, and thank you for joining us on balance
Speaker 2: of power, something that we're going to keep tabs on
Speaker 2: for you here both Venezuela and Israel as we follow
Speaker 2: this presidential race, coming off another rambunctious weekend veepsteaks playing
Speaker 2: out on Sunday morning, Donald Trump promising to fire Gary
Speaker 2: Gensler in his crypto speech over the weekend. That's something
Speaker 2: that's been reverberating here a bit in Washington. And then
Speaker 2: of course just the lay of the land. I remind
Speaker 2: you where we were here it was what so today's Monday.
Speaker 2: Two weeks ago j d Vance was announced as Donald
Speaker 2: Trump's running mate. Two weeks in a day it was
Speaker 2: or I guess two days the assassination attempt. This has
Speaker 2: been unfolding so quickly. A week ago yesterday, Joe Biden
Speaker 2: dropped out of the presidential race. And now look at
Speaker 2: the campaign by the numbers here, Kamala Harris pulling in
Speaker 2: more than two hundred million dollars since last Sunday. A
Speaker 2: weekend fundraiser here helped to do a little more in
Speaker 2: the Berkshires, but two thirds of the hall coming from
Speaker 2: first time donors. I believe it was sixty six percent.
Speaker 2: These are remarkable numbers. One hundred and seventy thousand new
Speaker 2: volunteers since last Sunday, and so we've got a lot
Speaker 2: of noise out there and clearly a big shift in
Speaker 2: the race that we want to talk about with Don Levy.
Speaker 2: He's back with us, director of the Siena College Research Institute. Don,
Speaker 2: your poll is still reverberating from last week. You were
Speaker 2: the first credible poll to come out after Joe Biden
Speaker 2: dropped out of the race. As an experienced a political
Speaker 2: hand and polster like yourself, are you amazed by what's
Speaker 2: happened in the last week? Put it in context for.
Speaker 4: Us, Well, everything changed very quickly. I mean we immediately
Speaker 4: went into the field last Monday to get a pulse
Speaker 4: on a nation, and certainly we see an amazing change.
Speaker 4: You know, what had pulled to about a six point
Speaker 4: advantage for former President Trump over President Biden is now
Speaker 4: really a dead heat. You know, we looked at it
Speaker 4: in a national poll. We have Trump up by one
Speaker 4: over Harris. However, it's even closer than that when we
Speaker 4: look at voters on their first pass when we asked
Speaker 4: them the question, and we have RFK and other third
Speaker 4: party candidates in the race.
Speaker 5: Actually Harris is up by a point.
Speaker 4: So right now this national race has turned into one
Speaker 4: that was really looking like Trump had a very significant
Speaker 4: advantage into one that's clearly a toss up. And in fact,
Speaker 4: what we saw in our three days of polling last
Speaker 4: week that as each day went on, Harris picked up
Speaker 4: a little bit more esteem. So clearly the Democrats are
Speaker 4: very excited about being excited when they had been really,
Speaker 4: really quite unhappy with the Biden candassy. In fact, when
Speaker 4: we asked voters did the Democrats make the right decision?
Speaker 4: Did Biden make the right decision pulling out of the race,
Speaker 4: eighty seven percent of voters said absolutely, that was the
Speaker 4: right decisions.
Speaker 2: Incredible. You and I have talked a lot about the
Speaker 2: double haters. They're a much smaller group all of a sudden, now,
Speaker 2: aren't they really?
Speaker 4: The devil haters have shrunk. They're down now. When you
Speaker 4: look at double haters of both Trump and Harris, it's
Speaker 4: only eight percent of voters. I've got a new group
Speaker 4: for you. We're going to call them the persuadables. We
Speaker 4: talked about persuadables before. Those are voters who do not say,
Speaker 4: either Trump or Harris on the first time we offer
Speaker 4: them the horse race, thirteen percent, about one out of
Speaker 4: every eight voters fall into this persuadable. When you look
Speaker 4: at the folks who are not persuadable right now, in
Speaker 4: our most recent national poll, eighty four percent of voters
Speaker 4: are locked in their mind is made up. So we're
Speaker 4: down now to between thirteen and sixteen percent of voters
Speaker 4: who either may not show up or truly are the
Speaker 4: persuadables at this point in time, a slight advantage for
Speaker 4: Trump over Harris amongst these persuadable voters.
Speaker 2: Amazing, this is really good stuff. That was one in eight, right,
Speaker 2: the persuadables, right, one in eight. Fascinating to hear this.
Speaker 4: Now, look at these persuadables and we ask them, can
Speaker 4: you assess these two candidates on a series of attributes,
Speaker 4: their ability to unify the country, their temperament, their intelligence,
Speaker 4: which one is a stronger leader? And there you see
Speaker 4: that these persuadables are struggling a.
Speaker 5: Little bit far and away.
Speaker 4: They see former President Trump as a stronger leader. Certainly
Speaker 4: that's going to be something that I'm sure that he
Speaker 4: will stress in his campaign. He sees that as a
Speaker 4: strength and odersee that is a strainth Interestingly, on the
Speaker 4: issue of intelligence, while persuadables and voters in general field
Speaker 4: as though both candidates are intelligent, they give the nod
Speaker 4: on intelligence to Kamala Harris rather than to Donald Trump.
Speaker 4: Harris also has small advantages over Trump on empathy, her
Speaker 4: ability to care about people like the voters, and also
Speaker 4: in having the appropriate temperament to be the effective president.
Speaker 4: So clearly Harris has jumped up to be a very
Speaker 4: formidable candidate. In fact, we interesting we saw Trump get
Speaker 4: a bounce in his favorability also in this poll, up
Speaker 4: about a net six favorability. So despite the Trump bump,
Speaker 4: Harris clearly has caught him and pulled the even.
Speaker 2: Wow, all right, Don Levy with us from Sienna. There's
Speaker 2: something called momentum that she's experiencing this sort of campaign
Speaker 2: on a speed boat. That's how much has happened in
Speaker 2: the last week. And while the momentum is taking place,
Speaker 2: Don Levy, how do you pull that?
Speaker 6: Well?
Speaker 4: I guess the answer to that is again and again,
Speaker 4: you know.
Speaker 2: Will you be in the field more often? Is that?
Speaker 2: The answer?
Speaker 4: Absolutely? I mean, we're going to be in the field
Speaker 4: quite soon now going to take a look at the
Speaker 4: key battleground states. And then typically we see a candidate
Speaker 4: get a bump after a convention. I think former President
Speaker 4: Trump got that. I think the assassination attempt yielded a
Speaker 4: slight bump. So it was just remarkable to see Harris,
Speaker 4: you know, jump into the race and pull even It's
Speaker 4: likely that Harris may very well see a bump when
Speaker 4: we go through the Democratic Convention. Then we really get
Speaker 4: down to the nitty gritty as we hit Labor Day
Speaker 4: and go through that really sprint to the finished line,
Speaker 4: where we'll be pulling almost NonStop from Labor Day until
Speaker 4: the election understood.
Speaker 2: And that's how you capture I guess, a moving target
Speaker 2: in that case, I don't know what they're gonna call
Speaker 2: it done, kamalamentum. I haven't heard anyone go for that yet.
Speaker 2: But you know, in that world, there's a question about
Speaker 2: the honeymoon. I think Politico calls it the sugar rush
Speaker 2: this morning. How much time does Kamala Harris have to
Speaker 2: enjoy the good feels in the media and by her supporters.
Speaker 5: Well, I think what.
Speaker 4: We see is the her base is extremely excited, committed
Speaker 4: the fundraising, as you point out, has been traumatic. Now
Speaker 4: we're going to start going to war over these persuadables.
Speaker 4: Both camps are going to try to paint Harris with
Speaker 4: a certain brush and we're going to have to take
Speaker 4: a look at these persuadables, these independence in the swing
Speaker 4: states to see which way they end up going. That's
Speaker 4: going to be the ultimate decider of this election. Still,
Speaker 4: at this point in time, the momentum of the Harris
Speaker 4: campaign is impressive. You know that the Democrats had campaign
Speaker 4: really that was, you know, maybe to use a bad
Speaker 4: metaphor on life support. Now it's an entirely new campaign,
Speaker 4: and I think that this momentum will ease and then
Speaker 4: the true battle over the persuadables will take place from
Speaker 4: Labor Day right until the election.
Speaker 2: Wo the persuadables, I could see that being like a
Speaker 2: new streaming series or something done. It's time for your
Speaker 2: million dollar moment. Great to see you, welcome back. We're
Speaker 2: always watching what Sienna is up to, and of course
Speaker 2: the great Don Levy. Thank you Don for helping our
Speaker 2: way through this campaign. Siena College Research Institute.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast Ken
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Speaker 7: We continue to assess what continues to be history making
Speaker 7: news cycle when it comes to both the current president
Speaker 7: and of course his vice president who is running to
Speaker 7: replace him come January of twenty twenty five. And of
Speaker 7: course the other candidate in this race is former President
Speaker 7: Donald Trump. And joining us now here in studio someone
Speaker 7: who worked in the Trump White Houses, acting Chief of
Speaker 7: Staff mc mulvaney is with us. He of course, also
Speaker 7: is co founder of the Freedom Caucus as a former
Speaker 7: congressman from South Carolina, former director of the OMB. We
Speaker 7: all know you have a very long resume. Great to
Speaker 7: see you in person. Not much going on these days.
Speaker 5: We caught up with you.
Speaker 7: It has been a while. So much has happened in
Speaker 7: such a very short period of time, including for Donald Trump,
Speaker 7: not just a surviving an assassination attempt, then selecting JD.
Speaker 7: Vance as his vice presidential candidate.
Speaker 8: Happened before Busy a couple of weeks.
Speaker 7: Joe Biden dropped out of the race, and Kamala Harris
Speaker 7: became the presumptive nominee. Knowing what you know of Donald Trump,
Speaker 7: do you think he regrets that choice or would have
Speaker 7: decided differently if he had the knowledge we now have.
Speaker 9: Listen, I'll preface this by saying, Look, anybody who says
Speaker 9: now they know exactly what's going to happen has been
Speaker 9: proven wrong, right, because we're way through the looking glass
Speaker 9: now and no one ever expected any of this. So
Speaker 9: if you sit here and say well absolutely X y Z,
Speaker 9: I could be proven entirely wrong tomorrow. So with that caveat,
Speaker 9: I don't think there's much chance they're even having this conversation.
Speaker 8: Here's why.
Speaker 9: Let's say that that I'm Donald Trump and I'm thinking
Speaker 9: about Joe Matthew for position X.
Speaker 8: Kaylee, what do you think about Joe? You think about Joe?
Speaker 8: He's here, He's a good guy. What do you hear
Speaker 8: about him?
Speaker 9: Okay, if he's asking those questions of somebody that he
Speaker 9: hasn't hired yet, it means he's thinking about hiring them.
Speaker 9: If he's asking similar questions, Kaylee, what do you think
Speaker 9: about Joe? What kind of a job is he doing.
Speaker 8: What are you hearing?
Speaker 9: And he's already hired that person. That means he's thinking
Speaker 9: about firing that person. Okay, that's that's how that dynamic works. Sure,
Speaker 9: I've not heard any of that out of the Trump team.
Speaker 4: Right now.
Speaker 8: Trump is not asking people what do they think about JD. Evans?
Speaker 8: You know, how's he doing.
Speaker 9: I do have some questions about whether or not the
Speaker 9: vetting team knew about these things that we're now hearing about.
Speaker 8: The lady exactly did they hear about that? And listen,
Speaker 8: there's a pretty good chance they did.
Speaker 9: They got a pretty good social media team and they
Speaker 9: probably just didn't care. Again, JD was was a selection
Speaker 9: born of supreme confidence.
Speaker 8: They thought they were going to win.
Speaker 9: They still think they're going to win, and they just
Speaker 9: wanted somebody that Trump likes to work with, and they
Speaker 9: didn't want to worry about any of the other dynamics
Speaker 9: of picking up states or demographics. It's the only person,
Speaker 9: remember that he can't fire after the election, Cabinet secretary's
Speaker 9: chiefs of staff. Whatever you can get rid of, you
Speaker 9: can't get rid of of your VP. So they took
Speaker 9: him because they liked him, and they still think they
Speaker 9: do so. Look, he could get fired tomorrow. I get it,
Speaker 9: but I'm just not hearing it.
Speaker 2: So what's your view on the way this race has changed.
Speaker 2: Don Levy from Siena was on with us earlier telling
Speaker 2: a remarkable story about momentum in the polls. It's been
Speaker 2: a game changer, certainly coming even with Donald Trump here
Speaker 2: in the states that matter, two hundred million dollars in
Speaker 2: a week, getting enormous amounts of free media. Should Donald
Speaker 2: Trump be more worried than he was, Well, he could
Speaker 2: go more.
Speaker 9: Worried, I think if he was going to waltz into
Speaker 9: the into the White House against Joe Biden.
Speaker 2: So how do you describe Is it still his to lose?
Speaker 9: I think it's a I went from an eighty twenty
Speaker 9: kind of race to a fifty two forty eight kind
Speaker 9: of race. Keep in mind, and there's an axiom in
Speaker 9: this business that you know, you're never really more popular
Speaker 9: than the day you announced you're running for office, and
Speaker 9: it's all downhill after that. In fact, that happened to
Speaker 9: Kamala Harris back in twenty twenty. She had that fabulous rollout.
Speaker 9: Whereas at Oakland or San Francisco, I can't remember and
Speaker 9: I remember watching our and TV going those are Trump
Speaker 9: type rallies. That's a tremendous rollout for a campaign. This
Speaker 9: is when she was running for president, and then six
Speaker 9: weeks later she's gone before Iowa even opened up. So
Speaker 9: you're never more popular than you are in day one.
Speaker 9: You expect a bounce. Look, I get the Democrats credit.
Speaker 9: I never expected them to get their act together this quickly.
Speaker 9: I was sort of, you know, buying popcorn and getting
Speaker 9: ready to hunt her down in front of the Democrat
Speaker 9: National Convention and just watching the fireworks, thinking it was
Speaker 9: going to be a wide open sort of rodeo.
Speaker 8: It's not. And you give them credit. They have done
Speaker 8: better than.
Speaker 9: I think a lot of folks, including some Democrats, expected
Speaker 9: them to do. But this race is far from over,
Speaker 9: and I think you're gonna hear a lot of things
Speaker 9: about Kamala Harris from Republicans over the next ninety nine days.
Speaker 7: Well, so as we think about the excitement her candidacy
Speaker 7: seems to have generated. To Joe's point, a big part
Speaker 7: of this is money. The Kamala Harris campaign has raised
Speaker 7: more than two hundred million dollars, a lot of that
Speaker 7: from first time small dollar donors. We aren't necessarily hearing
Speaker 7: much fund raising news out of the Trump campaign to
Speaker 7: counter that, And I just wonder how you think about
Speaker 7: the cash part of the equation here and the ability
Speaker 7: to spend money in the states that matter.
Speaker 8: Yeah, look, it's no question about it. It's absolutely critical.
Speaker 8: It's probably more critical down ballot than it is for
Speaker 8: anything else. But at the end of the day, I.
Speaker 9: Mean, look, Trump had a great news cycle. I think
Speaker 9: the last time they put out numbers, how we outraised Biden.
Speaker 9: Kamala Harris has had a good number this time. Both
Speaker 9: of these teams are going to have enough money to
Speaker 9: do everything that they want to do. Now, down ballot's
Speaker 9: a different story. So if you're Hakim Jeffreys or you're
Speaker 9: Michael Johnson, you're fighting it, slugging it out for every
Speaker 9: single seat in the House form majority down there. You know,
Speaker 9: if there's enough money is a question that still remains.
Speaker 9: But at the top of the ticket, they're going to
Speaker 9: have enough dough to do what they want and keep on.
Speaker 9: You never know, is money that comes in today money
Speaker 9: that was going to come in tomorrow, or is it
Speaker 9: really new money? Is it just money that came in earlier.
Speaker 9: Was it money that was held back last time? There's
Speaker 9: all sorts of all sorts of variables when it comes
Speaker 9: to money raising.
Speaker 8: But there listen, no one's going poor in this race.
Speaker 8: That's for sure.
Speaker 2: That's for sure. I don't know if the campaign cares
Speaker 2: at all who Kamala Harris is going to run with.
Speaker 2: I suspect that there's some consideration there. But if you
Speaker 2: take the red hat off for a minute, who do
Speaker 2: you think Kamala Harris if it's down to this three,
Speaker 2: does she go with somebody like a rust belt governor?
Speaker 2: Does it need to be a swing state? Why are
Speaker 2: we talking about governor of Minnesota?
Speaker 9: For If you fall back on the basics right on
Speaker 9: how you usually pick a vice president. You pick a
Speaker 9: vice president based upon a need for your campaign. Is
Speaker 9: it money, which is why Reagan took Bush? Is it expertise,
Speaker 9: which is why Ducacas took Benson. Is it a swing
Speaker 9: state which is why Romney took rhynd didn't work out
Speaker 9: that well, but that was the pick. I think you're
Speaker 9: back in that world, right, that's a swing state type
Speaker 9: of thing. Shapiro So well, no, no, no, because you've
Speaker 9: got what are the swing states?
Speaker 8: Yeah, Shapiro's in the list.
Speaker 2: Well, you could do Kelly in Arizona.
Speaker 8: Kelly in Arizona, Whitmer in Michigan. Walls and in Minute Soda is.
Speaker 2: A state they'd love to lock up, no question about it.
Speaker 2: And really they're a geographic advantage to Walls of Minisi.
Speaker 9: Absolutely, much much more so, say than Cooper in North Carolina,
Speaker 9: who I really don't think the Democrats think they can win.
Speaker 9: And Basher, who's a very talented guy Democrat who wanted
Speaker 9: a red state whose name has sort of fallen off
Speaker 9: the map already because it's not a swing state. So
Speaker 9: I think that's where they're looking at.
Speaker 10: Well.
Speaker 7: We also understand that her campaign is considering not just
Speaker 7: who they want to be vice president, but also the
Speaker 7: kind of policy that they want to pursue. There's been
Speaker 7: reporting in the last few days, especially in the aftermath
Speaker 7: of Donald Trump's appearance at the Bitcoin conference in Nashville
Speaker 7: this weekend, that the Harris campaign is looking to court
Speaker 7: the crypto industry a bit more for a reset, if
Speaker 7: you will. We've heard the same from Democrats who support her,
Speaker 7: like Congressman Wiley Nickel, who's pro crypto. Do you believe that,
Speaker 7: and do you believe Donald Trump, who used to call
Speaker 7: bitcoin a scam, is actually going to be friendlier toward
Speaker 7: the industry this time around.
Speaker 9: The answer to the second question is yes, easy, because
Speaker 9: I don't think this is not one of the things
Speaker 9: that Trump is married to.
Speaker 5: Right.
Speaker 9: Trump feels very strong about immigration and tax and regulation. Okay,
Speaker 9: that he really really does. I don't think he cares
Speaker 9: really one way or the other about crypto. So if
Speaker 9: you say, well, he's changed policies from last time in
Speaker 9: he's the office, Yeah, and I buy that, And he
Speaker 9: could be the greatest defender of crypto in the world.
Speaker 8: I absolutely believe that's possible.
Speaker 9: To your first question, do I believe when it comes
Speaker 9: to the Democrats, Eh, And here's why I'm not just
Speaker 9: saying that because I'm a Republican and they're Democrats. They've
Speaker 9: got Look, we're both parties are big parties, right, you
Speaker 9: only got two parties in country of one hundred and
Speaker 9: three hundred fifty million people. They're not going to be monolithic.
Speaker 9: But within that Democrat party on this particular issue, they
Speaker 9: have a wide variety of issues.
Speaker 8: Who are the most.
Speaker 9: Anti crypto people in this town? Liz Warren and Bernie Sanders,
Speaker 9: maybe certainly Liz Warren, maybe Dick Durbin.
Speaker 8: I can't remember. Yeah, I mean I forgot about Gary
Speaker 8: Yeah hy Gary see it? Yeah.
Speaker 9: So I mean that's are there democrats like Wiley Nicol
Speaker 9: who are are strongly pro crypto, absolutely, But the big
Speaker 9: names in the anti crypto world, the people that really
Speaker 9: would love to ban it if they got the chance,
Speaker 9: are Democrats. And I think that's a problem that that
Speaker 9: that Kamala Harrison is going to have to navigate that
Speaker 9: Donald Trump doesn't.
Speaker 2: So if Donald Trump can have an evolution like that
Speaker 2: on crypto, does Elon Musk help him find religion on EV's?
Speaker 9: You know, the thing on EV's I think is probably
Speaker 9: less is less the concept of an EV and whether
Speaker 9: or not we're doing it in what Trump might be
Speaker 9: able to describe as an America first sort of manner.
Speaker 9: Are we making them or is somebody else making them?
Speaker 8: You go back to the speech that he gave.
Speaker 9: About the car industry in Mexico that got, you know,
Speaker 9: wrongly attributed as that blood bass, right, I think that
Speaker 9: was that was not an anti EV speech? Is what
Speaker 9: was an anti China?
Speaker 2: The version that he'd.
Speaker 9: Like to say I think I think if TESLA could
Speaker 9: make an argument that you know, they've got a way
Speaker 9: to provide low, low price, good quality, non government subsidized
Speaker 9: electronic vehicles, why would Donald Trump care? But yeah, to
Speaker 9: your point, because I could see the twinkle in your eye.
Speaker 9: If you spend forty five million dollars a month or whatever,
Speaker 9: do you get an open door passed to the White House.
Speaker 9: The answer is yes, you do. Wow, he was there.
Speaker 9: I think I bumped it.
Speaker 2: And he used to be the gatekeeper at I met him.
Speaker 8: Half a dozen times. One of the most.
Speaker 9: Strangely intelligent men you've ever met in your entire life.
Speaker 9: I'm not sure I understood a thing that he said,
Speaker 9: but I'm pretty sure he's a lot smarter than I am.
Speaker 2: Well, they didn't get an invite the day GM Chrysler
Speaker 2: Ford Stilantis.
Speaker 9: I don't think he needs when you've got when you've
Speaker 9: got the private number, I don't think you need to
Speaker 9: come in with the rest of the crowd.
Speaker 2: Fair enought let another month ago or whatever.
Speaker 9: It's well, it's you know, amazingly people all around the
Speaker 9: world want to talk about our election.
Speaker 2: About that.
Speaker 8: I had no idea. I'm huge in Australia by the way.
Speaker 2: Case yes, yeah, wow, all right, well they have good taste.
Speaker 2: Let us know what they're asking you next time you're on.
Speaker 2: Mick Maulvaney always a treat former Acting Chief of Staff
Speaker 2: Trump Administration's co founder of the Freedom Caucus. Kaylee, we've
Speaker 2: looked forward to this conversation for a minute. We'll get
Speaker 2: him back soon for you here and we'll assemble our
Speaker 2: panel coming up next, Rick Davis and g. D. Shanzano.
Speaker 2: Hold forth, You're on the fastest show in politics and
Speaker 2: it's only Monday. I'm Joe Matthew alongside Kaylee Lion. Stay
Speaker 2: with us on Bloomberg TV and radio.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch
Speaker 1: Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apocarplay and then
Speaker 1: Proudo with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever
Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 7: We pay attention to the happenings here in Washington, yes,
Speaker 7: but also around the world when it comes to politics,
Speaker 7: and certainly there is a lot of political news coming
Speaker 7: from Venezuela after the country's presidential election on Sunday, the
Speaker 7: country's electoral Council has just certified that Nicholas Maduro, of course,
Speaker 7: the incumbent president, won the election yesterday and will have
Speaker 7: another six year term, his third. However, this comes after
Speaker 7: the opposition cast doubt on the actual results of the election.
Speaker 7: Exit polling has suggested that Maduro's challenger was actually pulling
Speaker 7: far ahead of him in Venezuela. Of course, earlier this afternoon,
Speaker 7: Joe named and opposition leader Maria Machado as a key
Speaker 7: suspect in its investigation into alleged electoral sabotage, and this
Speaker 7: has taken the notice of many countries around the world,
Speaker 7: including the US. We heard from Secretary of Saint Anthony
Speaker 7: Blincoln earlier today saying that he had serious concerns, yes
Speaker 7: about these results in Venezuela.
Speaker 2: Serious concerns. The result does not reflect the will or
Speaker 2: the votes of the Venezuelan people. That's where we are here.
Speaker 2: And Maria Carina Machado, who Kylee mentions, called the result impossible,
Speaker 2: saying we won and the whole world knows it. So
Speaker 2: the question, Kaylee then becomes about us response, and Bloomberg
Speaker 2: has a really important story just up on the terminal.
Speaker 2: Eric Martin writing that the US will determine future sanctions
Speaker 2: on Venezuela based on whether Maduro's government releases fully releases
Speaker 2: voting data here, So we're just at the beginning of
Speaker 2: the story.
Speaker 7: It scenes, Yeah, and of course it was in part
Speaker 7: the US's own data in the exit polls that it
Speaker 7: were seeing that were mismatch with what actually came out
Speaker 7: of the Electoral Council invest So this is, to your point,
Speaker 7: show a story that is certainly far from over. The
Speaker 7: US not the only country that has a lot of
Speaker 7: drama around true election these days.
Speaker 2: Yeah, how true. Let's talk about the drama in our
Speaker 2: own with our signature panel back with us today on
Speaker 2: the Monday edition of Ballots of Power. Rick Davis and
Speaker 2: Genie Shanzo Bloomberg Politics contributors holding forth here as we
Speaker 2: try to make our way through the deep steaks in
Speaker 2: the next week or so. As Kaylee mentioned, they've got
Speaker 2: it down to three here, and we'd love your take
Speaker 2: on this story and of course, some of many of
Speaker 2: the other cross currents in the campaign. Genie, what's your
Speaker 2: take right now on the big three that Bloomberg has
Speaker 2: highlighted The governors of Minnesota and Pennsylvania as well as
Speaker 2: the Senator from Arizona. They each bring their own promise.
Speaker 2: But in the case of Tim Walls of Minnesota, not
Speaker 2: a swing state, what do you think Kamala Harris is considering?
Speaker 11: You know, I was surprised that he is on the
Speaker 11: top three to a certain extent, because I think, if
Speaker 11: you're gonna go swing state, you might as well go
Speaker 11: big with Pennsylvania or Arizona. But of course they would
Speaker 11: like to lock up Minnesota. So and he does have
Speaker 11: an important record out there. He is well known, he
Speaker 11: is well liked. He was auditioning this weekend on the
Speaker 11: Sunday shows, So certainly he is in contention. You know,
Speaker 11: one thing that I think is worth noting is this
Speaker 11: drive to go with a white man and leaving a
Speaker 11: side Gretchen Whitmer, who said she doesn't want to be considered.
Speaker 11: But Michigan and Whitmer is a really important state. And
Speaker 11: I keep in the back of my mind wondering does
Speaker 11: Kamala Harris surprise everybody by going with Whitmer. She is
Speaker 11: a very good politician of you know, well liked in
Speaker 11: her state. It's a swing state, it's one the Democrats need,
Speaker 11: and I think to count somebody out due to gender
Speaker 11: is troubling to me. So I just want to put
Speaker 11: that out out there. But that's what we've been hearing there,
Speaker 11: looking for a white man.
Speaker 5: Yeah.
Speaker 7: Well, and certainly most of the list does seem to
Speaker 7: be comprised of that. But Rick, what do you think
Speaker 7: about Genie's point on Governor Whitmer, who herself has says
Speaker 7: she wants to stay in Michigan in the job she
Speaker 7: currently has. Is this about America's perhaps lack of readiness
Speaker 7: to have a female president and vice president or is
Speaker 7: this just about someone saying, don't pick me please.
Speaker 10: Yeah, I think that we have to believe Whitmer that
Speaker 10: she doesn't want to be picked. So she's not on
Speaker 10: a list anymore. I think she was on an earlier
Speaker 10: list that had been circulated. I think Gina Ramundo was
Speaker 10: on another earlier list that had been circulated. I mean,
Speaker 10: I don't think they're not looking at women. I think
Speaker 10: they're finding that they have other options. And I think
Speaker 10: they're clearly looking at targeted states like Arizona, you know,
Speaker 10: and Pennsylvania, and by the way, Minnesota is not a
Speaker 10: chip shot for Democrats. At one point in time, right
Speaker 10: after the convention, the Republicans came out. They're saying, we're
Speaker 10: putting all these states in play. We're gonna put Minnesota
Speaker 10: in play. We're going to you know, put other states
Speaker 10: that are sort of you know, Democrat leaning states in play.
Speaker 10: And so to be able to lock up Minnesota, you know,
Speaker 10: with Tim Waltz is not a bad option for the Democrats.
Speaker 10: Takes another you know, chess piece off the board and
Speaker 10: and gets the focus back down to where the Democrats
Speaker 10: I think always wanted it, which is there are only
Speaker 10: six or seven states that matter. Let's keep our focus
Speaker 10: on that. We're not looking at Minnesota, We're not looking
Speaker 10: at New Hampshire, you know, these other border leaners. So yeah,
Speaker 10: I think they've got the trading range down to where
Speaker 10: they want it. I think they've done it effectively in
Speaker 10: a very short period of time.
Speaker 8: Now you've got to pick them.
Speaker 10: And they all have advantages and disadvantages. They all have
Speaker 10: different personalities. Uh and uh. And I think all of
Speaker 10: them though, tend to benefit the ticket. And I'm you know,
Speaker 10: like you think that's kind of obvious except JD.
Speaker 8: Vance.
Speaker 10: I mean, in retrospect, everyone's in the Republican are scratching
Speaker 10: ahead and going, how in the world did this benefit
Speaker 10: the ticket?
Speaker 2: You know, it's really interesting you say that, Rick, The
Speaker 2: Washington Post reporting that in the last two days before
Speaker 2: Donald Trump picked JD. Vance, quote, an array of senators, donors,
Speaker 2: conservative media personalities, and other supporters unquote urged Donald Trump
Speaker 2: to pick someone else as we consider childless cat ladies, Rick,
Speaker 2: where are we on the idea here that Donald Trump
Speaker 2: may have made a poor choice and buyer's remorse throughout
Speaker 2: the GOP.
Speaker 10: Look, when Don Junior is calling the shots, this is
Speaker 10: what you get. And I think that there's such a
Speaker 10: close link around former President Trump and his family, and
Speaker 10: I'm sure that the family echo chamber is strong that JD.
Speaker 10: Vance was the guy all along, that he's the one
Speaker 10: who can continue the march for MAGA. And that may
Speaker 10: be true on its own right. Whether MAGA, you know,
Speaker 10: can expand beyond Donald Trump's you know, current constituency. I
Speaker 10: don't think anybody who believes Vance can do that for them.
Speaker 10: But look, I mean, there is a portion of the
Speaker 10: Republican Party, or at least the MAGA party where you
Speaker 10: know he is. He's wildly popular, regardless of some of
Speaker 10: his cat lady mentions and things like that. So, uh,
Speaker 10: it may be weird, but it is the current state
Speaker 10: of play within the Republican Party.
Speaker 7: Well, we should hear from the Senator from Ohio and
Speaker 7: vice presidential nominee himself, because he was asked about the
Speaker 7: cat lady thing last night on Fox. Here was how
Speaker 7: that went.
Speaker 6: Down, Nons and priests aside, do you agree that there
Speaker 6: are people who very much love this country and are
Speaker 6: invested in his future, but they also happen to be childless?
Speaker 4: Oh, of course I believe that, Tray, And if you
Speaker 4: look at the full context of what I said, it's
Speaker 4: very clear the Democrats have tried to take this thing
Speaker 4: out of content and blow it out of.
Speaker 2: Proportion, which is what they always do.
Speaker 10: Trey.
Speaker 7: Genie blown out of proportion or not? The genie's kind
Speaker 7: of out of the bottle on this one. Are Democrats
Speaker 7: going to be able to keep up this line of
Speaker 7: attack on Jdvans or are they going to have to
Speaker 7: come up with something else as we still have four
Speaker 7: months to go, and a lot of the enthusiasm and
Speaker 7: energy we've maybe seen over the last week isn't necessarily
Speaker 7: sustainable for the next ninety nine days.
Speaker 11: I think there will be more. This was a doozy
Speaker 11: by jd. Vance to walk it back. He goes and
Speaker 11: talks to Trey Goudy and Meghan Kelly. That's not going
Speaker 11: to do it, and so he just keeps stepping in
Speaker 11: it more and more. The reality is to win this election,
Speaker 11: Republicans rather cannot discount suburban women, and that's what his
Speaker 11: movement into the vice presidential pick has threatened to do
Speaker 11: with statements like this. I mean, is there a way
Speaker 11: to come back from it, for sure, but we haven't
Speaker 11: seen them do this yet. But the reality is this
Speaker 11: is all about Donald Trump. Donald Trump not listening to
Speaker 11: the establishment. Talking about how everybody else makes VP picks
Speaker 11: is nothing new in my view. He wanted somebody who
Speaker 11: would do his bidding in a way Mike Pence wouldn't,
Speaker 11: and that's what he was going for, and hence he
Speaker 11: turned his back on people that may have made more sense,
Speaker 11: like Doug Bergham and some of the others on the list,
Speaker 11: and doubled down with JD. Vance, which doesn't reach out
Speaker 11: and get him the votes he needs to win some
Speaker 11: of these swing states.
Speaker 2: All right, Rick and Jeanie, we thank you, as always
Speaker 2: our signature panel with us on the Monday edition of
Speaker 2: Balance of Powers. Genie Schanzano and Rick Davis will join
Speaker 2: us as well a bit later on in the later
Speaker 2: edition of Balance of Power that starts at five pm Eastern.
Speaker 2: Tim Kayley, that'll be right around the time that Joe
Speaker 2: Biden is talking about the Supreme Court, which will be
Speaker 2: potentially newsy, although it's hard to see the path on
Speaker 2: the proposals that he is putting forward when it comes
Speaker 2: to term limits and a code of ethics. I've got
Speaker 2: an interesting headline here we should mention before the news
Speaker 2: the House announcing the Bipartisan task Force to probe Trump
Speaker 2: shooting being comparing this to a Warren Commission, essentially following
Speaker 2: what happened, and the reporting today on the fallout of
Speaker 2: this assassination attempt is remarkable. The New York Times publishing
Speaker 2: text messages showing that security officers at the rally identified
Speaker 2: and talked about Thomas Crooks for more than an hour
Speaker 2: and a half before he opened fire on the former president.
Speaker 7: Yeah, more details continuing to come to light. Remembering that
Speaker 7: this happened just about two weeks ago, it was not
Speaker 7: that long ago, as we all have been living in
Speaker 7: what feels like warp speed in American politics, and surely
Speaker 7: more details will come to light as we have this
Speaker 7: task force looking into the assassination. It's actually being led
Speaker 7: by Republican Congressman Mike Kelly of Pennsylvania, who of course
Speaker 7: had been pushing given the proximity of Butler to his district.
Speaker 7: So we'll have much more on that of course throughout
Speaker 7: the day here on Bloomberg, specifically on Balance of Power.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the bloom Balance of Power podcast ken
Speaker 1: just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apple CarPlay and
Speaker 1: Enrounoo with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen
Speaker 1: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,
Speaker 1: Just Say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 2: Welcome to our TV and radio audiences worldwide. This is
Speaker 2: Balance of Power. I'm Joe Matthew alongside Kaylee Lions, talking
Speaker 2: politics with our eye on the financial markets as well.
Speaker 2: A big week for both. Kaylee. We've got a FED
Speaker 2: meeting Wednesday, We've got earnings. This is the big one,
Speaker 2: right Microsoft, Apple and the rest reporting this week with
Speaker 2: a lot of questions about the future of our economy
Speaker 2: and the future of this presidential campaign, and so it
Speaker 2: makes it easy to miss some of the headlines internationally
Speaker 2: here with the news today from Venezuela, but also Israel,
Speaker 2: as the Biden administration warns Israel that if it continues
Speaker 2: to target Hesbala and in fact opens a new war
Speaker 2: with them, this could spin out of control. Kaylee, We've
Speaker 2: discussed this before with Hagar Shamali, who's going to join
Speaker 2: us in a moment here. The question about a much
Speaker 2: wider conflict in the Middle East is very real right now.
Speaker 7: Yeah, especially after the events of this weekend, a rocket
Speaker 7: attack that notably Hesbela has actually not claimed responsibility for
Speaker 7: it has denied this, which is an unusual move for
Speaker 7: the group, but it ended up killing twelve young people,
Speaker 7: and net Yahoo has vowed a harsh response. The question
Speaker 7: is how will the harshness of that response actually be calibrated,
Speaker 7: especially considering the input of allies like the United States.
Speaker 7: So for more, let's turn to Hagar Shamali, of course,
Speaker 7: formerly of the National Security Council where she was director
Speaker 7: for Syria and Lebanon, but now CEO and founder of
Speaker 7: Greenwich Media Strategy. So are always great to have you here.
Speaker 7: On balance of power. Obviously, this is a region of
Speaker 7: the world that you know incredibly well. It is worth
Speaker 7: pointing out that this did happen and what is many
Speaker 7: internationally recognized as Syrian territory. This isn't necessarily somewhere where
Speaker 7: you would expect Hesbelah to strike. So what is your
Speaker 7: read on what exactly happened here and what you think
Speaker 7: Israel might do next?
Speaker 12: Well, from what we understand from both the Israelis but
Speaker 12: also by the way, from the US government that said
Speaker 12: that all signs indicate that Hesbela is the one that
Speaker 12: launched these rockets. There were a barrage of about thirty rockets,
Speaker 12: thirty missiles that hit that area that you talked about,
Speaker 12: that soccer field where nearly a dozen children were killed.
Speaker 12: And since then, Israel has promised a retaliation. The Defense Minister,
Speaker 12: the Prime Minister have promised that Hesbelah would pay a
Speaker 12: very heavy price. We've we've seen strikes along the border
Speaker 12: since then, but that is not the response to this.
Speaker 5: So we are waiting now. Everybody in Lebanon is nervous.
Speaker 12: The airports have been all airlines have been shot have
Speaker 12: been suspended to and from Lebanon. From Beirut because everybody
Speaker 12: is anxiously awaiting the step that Israel will take. And
Speaker 12: I anticipate a very hard response, very strong response from Israel,
Speaker 12: probably against weapons depots in the south of Lebanon, key
Speaker 12: infrastructure like roads and bridges again in the south, and
Speaker 12: also wherever they may know that Hasbela leaders.
Speaker 2: Are what happens if Israel does target Hesblah in Beirut, Hagar,
Speaker 2: what would the posture b.
Speaker 12: Well, Beyroot is a little bit different and not a
Speaker 12: lot of people are expecting a strike in Beirut.
Speaker 5: And let me explain why. The reason is that neither
Speaker 5: side actually wants a war.
Speaker 12: And I know I've said this a number of times
Speaker 12: and it may seem odd since you've seen these strikes
Speaker 12: go on between both sides for the last nine months,
Speaker 12: But neither side actually wants a war.
Speaker 5: Otherwise you would have seen them by now in.
Speaker 12: A full scale war. It's just that the pressure continues
Speaker 12: to mount more and more. And when that pressure mounts,
Speaker 12: and when you have strikes that go on back and forth,
Speaker 12: you always have the risk of miscalculation. And I would
Speaker 12: argue that the strike that happened against this soccer field,
Speaker 12: and I believe. Like I said, I believe that when
Speaker 12: the US comes out and says that it's hisbella, I
Speaker 12: know what it's like. What standard they have to meet
Speaker 12: to say something like that publicly. So when Habela makes
Speaker 12: a strike like that, whether or not it was a mistake,
Speaker 12: is a major miscalculation, and Israel's going to respond. But
Speaker 12: it might respond the way, for example, that it did
Speaker 12: against the port of Hoodeda and Yemen, when the Houthis
Speaker 12: after the Houthis sent a drone that killed and Israeli
Speaker 12: it is an intel aviv, or the way it responded
Speaker 12: after iransa soult of three hundred missiles and drones against Israel.
Speaker 12: Is A responded in a way to respond in a
Speaker 12: strong and loud fashion, to send a message that they
Speaker 12: need to stop once and for all, or to stop
Speaker 12: at least for the time being. And then the other
Speaker 12: on the other side, they kind of sit back so
Speaker 12: that it doesn't escalate further. Beirut would escalate things to
Speaker 12: another level, though it would cause something reminiscent of the
Speaker 12: two thousand and six war you saw between Israel and Tespola.
Speaker 7: Well, and of course this isn't happening in a vacuum, Hagar,
Speaker 7: this is actually happening. Is Israeli negotiators are in Rome,
Speaker 7: together with other mediators from the US and Cutter in Egypt,
Speaker 7: looking toward a ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas. We
Speaker 7: have just gotten within the last fifteen minutes or so
Speaker 7: a headline out of Prime Minister Benjamin ett Yahu's saying
Speaker 7: that Hamas leaders are obstructing the hostage deal, that they're
Speaker 7: adding new demands. But how do you view the knowledge
Speaker 7: that those talks are ongoing, and how it's likely to
Speaker 7: color the response we see from Israel.
Speaker 12: Sure, well, I think one of the things that's fascinating
Speaker 12: that you continue to see through this conflict is that
Speaker 12: whatever flare up you do see, whatever horrific story that
Speaker 12: happens or scenario that happens, it doesn't affect the ceasefire
Speaker 12: talks as much as one would expect. And that's because
Speaker 12: that's unfortunately typical in warfare. It can be very ugly
Speaker 12: on the ground. While you have negotiators and they don't
Speaker 12: talk directly to each other, they have mediators in between,
Speaker 12: obviously Cutter, the United States and Egypt, as you mentioned, But.
Speaker 5: Those talks, this entire time.
Speaker 12: While you've seen sometimes fanfare in public, you know, or
Speaker 12: bombastic remarks saying that they're going to falter, they don't.
Speaker 5: And the latest is that the Israelis have given a
Speaker 5: new some.
Speaker 12: New details and changes to the latest proposal because they
Speaker 12: want additional security Israeli eyes on the border between Egypt
Speaker 12: and Gaza, in particular, in any kind of proposal deal.
Speaker 12: As per usual, Hamas is obstructing that. And so it's
Speaker 12: kind of the name of the game in these ceasefire talks.
Speaker 12: So no matter what happens, I expect those talks to continue,
Speaker 12: even if you have something more full scale in Lebanon,
Speaker 12: because on the country that would only underscore further why
Speaker 12: as cease fire is needed. And I'm sorry I didn't
Speaker 12: were totally respond to your last question about how the
Speaker 12: US will respond. The US, while they came out and
Speaker 12: said that they want to de escalate tensions and they
Speaker 12: want everyone to earth, they urge restraint at the same time,
Speaker 12: they know Israel has to respond otherwise it would send
Speaker 12: the wrong message. And they've already said a number of
Speaker 12: times to indirectly to Habella that they don't hold Israel back,
Speaker 12: that they do have Israel's back in this whole process.
Speaker 2: Just lastly regarded what did Benjamin Attanya who accomplish, if anything,
Speaker 2: on his trip to the.
Speaker 12: US, Well, I mean, his trip to the US was
Speaker 12: largely about speaking to the American public and I'm not
Speaker 12: sure how far it went there. But what he did
Speaker 12: accomplish is having meetings with Biden, with Kamala Harris, Vice
Speaker 12: President Harris, and with Trump allows him to lay the
Speaker 12: groundwork no matter what direction things go domestically here. He
Speaker 12: has cemented relationships with all three he has they have
Speaker 12: and even though Vice President Harris came out with a
Speaker 12: more with a stronger tone, it also showed no change
Speaker 12: in policy, and I think that's what that's one of
Speaker 12: his interests ins with Trump. Obviously, it was about mending
Speaker 12: a relationship that had frayed during after Trump had left
Speaker 12: office and had said a number of disparaging remarks about Natanyahu,
Speaker 12: and so he cemented that relationship further. So that's largely
Speaker 12: what he what he gets out of this is just
Speaker 12: to make sure that the special relationship continues and that
Speaker 12: his unique relationship with each political official also remains intact.
Speaker 2: Higar Shamali, Greenwich Media strategies. Thanks as ever, Hagar for
Speaker 2: bringing your experience to us here on Bloomberg's TV and Radio.
Speaker 2: This is Balance of Power. I'm Joe Matthew alongside Kaylee Lions,
Speaker 2: and we want to take a swing past Capitol Hill
Speaker 2: before we call this episode to a close. Here, Jack
Speaker 2: Fitzpatrick from Bloomberg Government joins us from the Capitol right now,
Speaker 2: remembering that the House went home an extended summer recess,
Speaker 2: but the Senate is actually still in and in fact
Speaker 2: getting some work done. No one's talking about it, but
Speaker 2: of course Jack is there to cover it for us.
Speaker 2: And Jack, we could see a couple of things here.
Speaker 2: I'll ask you about appropriations, but also social media. With
Speaker 2: some bills set to pass today.
Speaker 13: Yes, first this week, they're supposed to finish their committee
Speaker 13: work in the Senate on government funding bills, there is
Speaker 13: a question of how much work they can actually do.
Speaker 13: They've got five bills left that haven't had committee votes
Speaker 13: and haven't been released yet. Just this morning, it came
Speaker 13: out that they are putting off work on the Homeland
Speaker 13: Security funding bill in the Senate because, as one of
Speaker 13: my colleagues reported, citing a Senate aide who's familiar with
Speaker 13: what they're negotiating. There are questions as to how to
Speaker 13: address the Secret Service budget, which is within the Homeland
Speaker 13: Security funding bill. In the week of the failed assassination
Speaker 13: attempt of former President Trump, so many questions surrounding their
Speaker 13: response in the oversight to the Secret Service. After that,
Speaker 13: there there are now questions about do they need more money,
Speaker 13: can they use that money successfully? And so they are
Speaker 13: putting off work on their Homeland Security funding bill because
Speaker 13: it has been at least in part because it has
Speaker 13: been complicated by those questions.
Speaker 1: So we are.
Speaker 13: Getting into campaign mode, but there's some significant work left
Speaker 13: to do in funding the government and in answering all
Speaker 13: the questions that lawmakers have about what comes next after
Speaker 13: that assassination attempt and oversight of Secret Service.
Speaker 7: Jack I asked this question knowing that it is literally
Speaker 7: the job of these lawmakers to legislate and to get
Speaker 7: the government funded. That's why they were sent by the
Speaker 7: American people to Capitol Hill. But I do question why
Speaker 7: they're trying to do this now when they know the
Speaker 7: House is gone. They're not coming back until September ninth,
Speaker 7: when we're going to be what three weeks from a
Speaker 7: potential shutdown, and the prevailing thought is that they're just
Speaker 7: going to end up passing a continuing resolution anyway. So
Speaker 7: is this all just a charade?
Speaker 13: Everything they do now is with an ion setting the
Speaker 13: stage for realistic, bipartisan, bicameral, tough negotiations as soon as
Speaker 13: the lame duck session. If everybody sets their marker and
Speaker 13: says this is where House Republicans stand on funding the government,
Speaker 13: and this is where Senators stand on it, there's at
Speaker 13: least a hope that they can have made enough progress
Speaker 13: so that maybe in December they can strike an actual
Speaker 13: funding deal. If they could do that, then whoever the
Speaker 13: next president is will not come in with a shut
Speaker 13: down deadline on their plate and they can focus on
Speaker 13: getting cabinet officials in place and on their legislative agenda.
Speaker 13: It's not clear if they will do that because the
Speaker 13: House and Senate have a huge gap between their approach
Speaker 13: and funding the government on all sorts of bills. So
Speaker 13: it's not just a charade. It is largely for show,
Speaker 13: but that show can set the stage for the real
Speaker 13: negotiations with an eye on hopefully striking a deal before
Speaker 13: another president has to come in and clean up the mess.
Speaker 2: Who says regular order is dead. Jack, We've also got
Speaker 2: the Kids Online Safety Act and the Children's Online Privacy
Speaker 2: Protection Act, these two attempting to regulate social media that
Speaker 2: are apparently moving in the Senate here looks like they're
Speaker 2: going to pass. Do we have any sense of whether
Speaker 2: they could pass the House?
Speaker 13: That is an interesting question. The bipartisan interest on this
Speaker 13: in the Senate sets the stage for possible passage here,
Speaker 13: but as we mentioned, as we get toward campaign mode
Speaker 13: and a limited opportunity to legislate in a bi cameral way,
Speaker 13: it's a little iffy if they can actually enact something
Speaker 13: and have bi cameraal negotiations on that. Again, a vote
Speaker 13: to pass that in the Senate that sets a marker
Speaker 13: that shows there's bipartisan interest in it could be a
Speaker 13: significant thing. But we're really dealing with a compressed schedule
Speaker 13: in terms of enacting legislation for the rest of this year.
Speaker 7: And Jack, before we let you go, we are expecting
Speaker 7: to hear from President Biden a few hours from now,
Speaker 7: when he's going to be speaking in Texas outlining what
Speaker 7: he would like to see in terms of Supreme Court reform.
Speaker 7: What we're talking about here is an actual ethics code
Speaker 7: that isn'tforceable, term limits, potentially even a constitutional amendment when
Speaker 7: it comes to presidential immunity. For all of these things,
Speaker 7: he's going to need Congress to cooperate. The House Speaker
Speaker 7: has already said it's dead on arrival in that chamber.
Speaker 7: Does it actually any of these things face any real
Speaker 7: prospect in Congress?
Speaker 13: Not in the near future. In Congress, this has become
Speaker 13: as much of an election and campaign issue. It's one
Speaker 13: thing for the president to communicate about his proposals, and
Speaker 13: that's something that some high profile Democrats in Congress have done,
Speaker 13: like Dick Durbin, but it's not something where there's a
Speaker 13: lot of bipartisan overlap. Republicans have put the kebash on that,
Speaker 13: so at least in the near term, this is more
Speaker 13: about communicating proposals than anything that has much of a
Speaker 13: chance of moving forward and being enacted.
Speaker 7: Does feel like we're in a bit of a messaging era,
Speaker 7: and Paul right now, as we're in the August before
Speaker 7: the election, Jack Fitzpatrick a Bloomberg Government joining us live
Speaker 7: from Capitol Hill as always, thank you so much, and
Speaker 7: it is worth pointing out, Joe that We're about to
Speaker 7: have a real absence of news from Capitol Hill after
Speaker 7: the Senate leaves this week. It's going to be what
Speaker 7: five weeks before Congress coming back, leaving August, to just
Speaker 7: be essentially dominated by presidential politics.
Speaker 2: Absolutely, and to your point, we'll come back and have
Speaker 2: a whole argument about whether we're going to shut down
Speaker 2: the government. So keep your countdown clocks. Thanks for listening
Speaker 2: to the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe
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Speaker 2: weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern at Bloomberg dot com.