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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. You're listening to the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch Just Live weekdays at

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Speaker 1: noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then roud Otto with the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts,

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Speaker 1: or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: Welcome to the Monday edition of Balance of Power on

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg Radio, on the satellite and on YouTube. Where you

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Speaker 2: can find us right now search Bloomberg Global News. We

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Speaker 2: have a lot to talk about. I hope you had

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Speaker 2: a great weekend because we have a lot to catch

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Speaker 2: up on here from the presidential campaign. New numbers coming

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Speaker 2: from Kamala Harris that are I popping two hundred million

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Speaker 2: dollars since Joe Biden endorsed her last Sunday. Matter of fact,

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Speaker 2: if you just stop down here and think for a

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Speaker 2: minute about what has happened in the last two weeks,

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Speaker 2: you might lose your breath. We're going to be spending

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Speaker 2: some time with Don Levy from Siena College. Remember he

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Speaker 2: was out with the first numbers on this race last

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Speaker 2: week after Joe Biden dropped out. The Sage at Siena

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Speaker 2: College will join with Remarkable News as well abroad, and

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Speaker 2: this comes on the heels of Donald Trump speaking at

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Speaker 2: the Crypto Conference. We were watching an election over the

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Speaker 2: weekend alongside the Olympics. We were watching an election in Venezuela.

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Speaker 2: And now a redhead on the terminal Venezuela, SOB says,

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Speaker 2: Machado is suspect of electoral sabotage. We're going to get

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Speaker 2: into this a little bit later on here with real

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Speaker 2: questions about whether Maduro in fact won that election fairly.

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Speaker 2: And then there's Israel. This is something that with all

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Speaker 2: of the other news swirling around here, has not gotten

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Speaker 2: enough attention. As Israel, weis this response to this attack

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Speaker 2: and the goal on Heights and whether to open a

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Speaker 2: new front essentially, or to wage a new war against Hesbalah.

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Speaker 2: And that's where we start our conversation now with Ian Marlow,

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg's senior reporter with his eye on geopolitics for US. Ian,

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Speaker 2: it's great to see you. Welcome Anthony Blincoln, warning that

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Speaker 2: this could very quickly spin out of control if Israel

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Speaker 2: in fact decides to declare war against Hesbelah. Talk to

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Speaker 2: us about the delicate nature of this moment and when

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Speaker 2: we might know Tel Aviv's and Jerusalem's intentions here.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, this is something we've seen. Over the course of

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Speaker 3: the war. Hesbolah on the Northern Front has been keeping

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Speaker 3: up the pressure on Israel, and this so far both

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Speaker 3: sides have managed to avoid the sort of escalation that

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Speaker 3: everyone has feared with most of the you know, most

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Speaker 3: of the carnage and tragedy happening down in Gaza. This

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Speaker 3: is is obviously an exception to This is something I

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Speaker 3: think no one in the US, Israel, or probably even

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Speaker 3: Hesbola and maybe even Iran wanted to see. It's hard

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Speaker 3: to see this strike on on kids, you know, twelve

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Speaker 3: dead being something that's strategic or in Hesbelah's interest. And obviously,

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Speaker 3: the last time Israel and Hesbelah tangled, you know, it

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Speaker 3: didn't go well for Hesbelah, it didn't go well for

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Speaker 3: Southern Route. So this is something that I think the

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Speaker 3: US has been focused on making sure that Israel keeps

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Speaker 3: a lid on the northern Front. There's a lot of

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Speaker 3: heated rhetoric, especially from the far right, who have wanted

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Speaker 3: to expand the war in Gaza to the northern Front. Yes, right,

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Speaker 3: obviously there's a bunch of people displaced from northern Israel

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Speaker 3: and they want to get those people back, and these

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Speaker 3: types of attacks mean that that's impossible right now. And

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Speaker 3: then I put a lot of pressure on Israel to

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Speaker 3: do something.

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Speaker 2: Well, you put that in great context. It's started to

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Speaker 2: feel like maybe things were cooling on the northern border

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Speaker 2: here where there's been continuous shelling for months and months.

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Speaker 2: I mean, how you kind of frame what is a

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Speaker 2: war and what is not is its own question right now.

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Speaker 2: But what is Benjamin Ettnya who considering in terms of options?

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Speaker 2: And if in fact Israel did make a pronounced strike

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Speaker 2: against Hesbelah, would that not draw Iran into the fight?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it's a great question. I think there's already been

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Speaker 3: a couple of sort of targeted strikes deeper inside Lebanon,

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Speaker 3: and those were sort of aimed at weapons cachets and things.

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Speaker 3: It's not clear. I mean, that's obviously not the main response.

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Speaker 3: They're still pledging and looking into some kind of much

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Speaker 3: bigger response. I mean, Israel has a sort of retaliation

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Speaker 3: calculus when it comes to, you know, losing their civilians

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Speaker 3: versus what sort of you know, fatalities they want to

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Speaker 3: inflict on the enemies around them. And I think that's

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Speaker 3: really worrying for US officials who are trying to keep this,

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Speaker 3: you know, tamped down while they pursue cease fire negotiations,

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Speaker 3: you know, with Israel and Hamas, which is sort of

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Speaker 3: a separate issue. But right now, I think there's probably

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Speaker 3: going to be a lot of pressure growing on Netanyahu.

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Speaker 3: He himself has you know, spoken out harshly in terms

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Speaker 3: of the retaliation he's promised. Yes, So we're potentially looking

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Speaker 3: at probably air strikes of some kind, whether they go

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Speaker 3: into Beirut, whether they're aimed at leaders or sort of

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Speaker 3: Hasbala installations. It's kind of yet to be seen. So

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Speaker 3: I think everyone right now is sort of just waiting,

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Speaker 3: you know, waiting to see what sort of shaped this takes.

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Speaker 2: Right the administration the US has made clear that there

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Speaker 2: are going to be limits to our involvement if in

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Speaker 2: fact this does cross over the northern border. John Kirby

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Speaker 2: said earlier today at the White House, I saw a

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Speaker 2: headline on the terminal that there is no sunlight between

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Speaker 2: Joe Biden and Kamala Harris when it comes to our

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Speaker 2: policy in Israel. Joe Biden will still be the president

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Speaker 2: obviously for the next many months, I Kamala Harris did win.

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Speaker 2: Would we see a difference in this relationship.

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Speaker 3: It's a really interesting question because the Middle East is

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Speaker 3: the one area of foreign policy that people have pointed out.

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Speaker 3: You know, when you look at Kamala Harris's statement since

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Speaker 3: the war began, she's always been a little bit out

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Speaker 3: in front of where Biden has been with the rhetoric,

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Speaker 3: with the sort of pressure on Israel, sort of emphasizing

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Speaker 3: policy and civilian casualties and the rest of it. So,

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Speaker 3: you know, but when it comes to policy, they've been

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Speaker 3: in lockstep, and she's part of the administration, so it's

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Speaker 3: hard to see, you know, at least in the moment,

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Speaker 3: especially with Biden' Still.

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Speaker 2: It was an interesting element last week with her talking,

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Speaker 2: saying almost word for word the same things that Joe

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Speaker 2: Biden has been saying, but having them being interpreted very

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Speaker 2: differently from her supporters. I guess it's something that we'll

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Speaker 2: keep an eye on them.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, and the Israelis also were very upset.

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Speaker 2: By her that right. Yeah, even though we've heard the

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Speaker 2: same statements from Joe Biden. Ian Marlow covering some pretty

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Speaker 2: heavy stuff for us here. Bloomberg Senior reporter. Great to

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Speaker 2: see me, and thank you for joining us on balance

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Speaker 2: of power, something that we're going to keep tabs on

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Speaker 2: for you here both Venezuela and Israel as we follow

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Speaker 2: this presidential race, coming off another rambunctious weekend veepsteaks playing

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Speaker 2: out on Sunday morning, Donald Trump promising to fire Gary

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Speaker 2: Gensler in his crypto speech over the weekend. That's something

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Speaker 2: that's been reverberating here a bit in Washington. And then

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Speaker 2: of course just the lay of the land. I remind

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Speaker 2: you where we were here it was what so today's Monday.

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Speaker 2: Two weeks ago j d Vance was announced as Donald

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Speaker 2: Trump's running mate. Two weeks in a day it was

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Speaker 2: or I guess two days the assassination attempt. This has

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Speaker 2: been unfolding so quickly. A week ago yesterday, Joe Biden

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Speaker 2: dropped out of the presidential race. And now look at

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Speaker 2: the campaign by the numbers here, Kamala Harris pulling in

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Speaker 2: more than two hundred million dollars since last Sunday. A

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Speaker 2: weekend fundraiser here helped to do a little more in

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Speaker 2: the Berkshires, but two thirds of the hall coming from

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Speaker 2: first time donors. I believe it was sixty six percent.

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Speaker 2: These are remarkable numbers. One hundred and seventy thousand new

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Speaker 2: volunteers since last Sunday, and so we've got a lot

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Speaker 2: of noise out there and clearly a big shift in

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Speaker 2: the race that we want to talk about with Don Levy.

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Speaker 2: He's back with us, director of the Siena College Research Institute. Don,

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Speaker 2: your poll is still reverberating from last week. You were

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Speaker 2: the first credible poll to come out after Joe Biden

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Speaker 2: dropped out of the race. As an experienced a political

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Speaker 2: hand and polster like yourself, are you amazed by what's

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Speaker 2: happened in the last week? Put it in context for.

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Speaker 4: Us, Well, everything changed very quickly. I mean we immediately

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Speaker 4: went into the field last Monday to get a pulse

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Speaker 4: on a nation, and certainly we see an amazing change.

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Speaker 4: You know, what had pulled to about a six point

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Speaker 4: advantage for former President Trump over President Biden is now

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Speaker 4: really a dead heat. You know, we looked at it

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Speaker 4: in a national poll. We have Trump up by one

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Speaker 4: over Harris. However, it's even closer than that when we

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Speaker 4: look at voters on their first pass when we asked

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Speaker 4: them the question, and we have RFK and other third

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Speaker 4: party candidates in the race.

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Speaker 5: Actually Harris is up by a point.

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Speaker 4: So right now this national race has turned into one

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Speaker 4: that was really looking like Trump had a very significant

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Speaker 4: advantage into one that's clearly a toss up. And in fact,

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Speaker 4: what we saw in our three days of polling last

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Speaker 4: week that as each day went on, Harris picked up

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Speaker 4: a little bit more esteem. So clearly the Democrats are

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Speaker 4: very excited about being excited when they had been really,

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Speaker 4: really quite unhappy with the Biden candassy. In fact, when

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Speaker 4: we asked voters did the Democrats make the right decision?

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Speaker 4: Did Biden make the right decision pulling out of the race,

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Speaker 4: eighty seven percent of voters said absolutely, that was the

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Speaker 4: right decisions.

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Speaker 2: Incredible. You and I have talked a lot about the

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Speaker 2: double haters. They're a much smaller group all of a sudden, now,

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Speaker 2: aren't they really?

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Speaker 4: The devil haters have shrunk. They're down now. When you

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Speaker 4: look at double haters of both Trump and Harris, it's

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Speaker 4: only eight percent of voters. I've got a new group

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Speaker 4: for you. We're going to call them the persuadables. We

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Speaker 4: talked about persuadables before. Those are voters who do not say,

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Speaker 4: either Trump or Harris on the first time we offer

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Speaker 4: them the horse race, thirteen percent, about one out of

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Speaker 4: every eight voters fall into this persuadable. When you look

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Speaker 4: at the folks who are not persuadable right now, in

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Speaker 4: our most recent national poll, eighty four percent of voters

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Speaker 4: are locked in their mind is made up. So we're

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Speaker 4: down now to between thirteen and sixteen percent of voters

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Speaker 4: who either may not show up or truly are the

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Speaker 4: persuadables at this point in time, a slight advantage for

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Speaker 4: Trump over Harris amongst these persuadable voters.

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Speaker 2: Amazing, this is really good stuff. That was one in eight, right,

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Speaker 2: the persuadables, right, one in eight. Fascinating to hear this.

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Speaker 4: Now, look at these persuadables and we ask them, can

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Speaker 4: you assess these two candidates on a series of attributes,

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Speaker 4: their ability to unify the country, their temperament, their intelligence,

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Speaker 4: which one is a stronger leader? And there you see

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Speaker 4: that these persuadables are struggling a.

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Speaker 5: Little bit far and away.

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Speaker 4: They see former President Trump as a stronger leader. Certainly

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Speaker 4: that's going to be something that I'm sure that he

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Speaker 4: will stress in his campaign. He sees that as a

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Speaker 4: strength and odersee that is a strainth Interestingly, on the

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Speaker 4: issue of intelligence, while persuadables and voters in general field

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Speaker 4: as though both candidates are intelligent, they give the nod

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Speaker 4: on intelligence to Kamala Harris rather than to Donald Trump.

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Speaker 4: Harris also has small advantages over Trump on empathy, her

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Speaker 4: ability to care about people like the voters, and also

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Speaker 4: in having the appropriate temperament to be the effective president.

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Speaker 4: So clearly Harris has jumped up to be a very

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Speaker 4: formidable candidate. In fact, we interesting we saw Trump get

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Speaker 4: a bounce in his favorability also in this poll, up

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Speaker 4: about a net six favorability. So despite the Trump bump,

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Speaker 4: Harris clearly has caught him and pulled the even.

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Speaker 2: Wow, all right, Don Levy with us from Sienna. There's

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Speaker 2: something called momentum that she's experiencing this sort of campaign

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Speaker 2: on a speed boat. That's how much has happened in

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Speaker 2: the last week. And while the momentum is taking place,

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Speaker 2: Don Levy, how do you pull that?

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Speaker 6: Well?

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Speaker 4: I guess the answer to that is again and again,

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Speaker 4: you know.

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Speaker 2: Will you be in the field more often? Is that?

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Speaker 2: The answer?

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Speaker 4: Absolutely? I mean, we're going to be in the field

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Speaker 4: quite soon now going to take a look at the

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Speaker 4: key battleground states. And then typically we see a candidate

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Speaker 4: get a bump after a convention. I think former President

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Speaker 4: Trump got that. I think the assassination attempt yielded a

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Speaker 4: slight bump. So it was just remarkable to see Harris,

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Speaker 4: you know, jump into the race and pull even It's

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Speaker 4: likely that Harris may very well see a bump when

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Speaker 4: we go through the Democratic Convention. Then we really get

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Speaker 4: down to the nitty gritty as we hit Labor Day

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Speaker 4: and go through that really sprint to the finished line,

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Speaker 4: where we'll be pulling almost NonStop from Labor Day until

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Speaker 4: the election understood.

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Speaker 2: And that's how you capture I guess, a moving target

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Speaker 2: in that case, I don't know what they're gonna call

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Speaker 2: it done, kamalamentum. I haven't heard anyone go for that yet.

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Speaker 2: But you know, in that world, there's a question about

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Speaker 2: the honeymoon. I think Politico calls it the sugar rush

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Speaker 2: this morning. How much time does Kamala Harris have to

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Speaker 2: enjoy the good feels in the media and by her supporters.

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Speaker 5: Well, I think what.

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Speaker 4: We see is the her base is extremely excited, committed

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Speaker 4: the fundraising, as you point out, has been traumatic. Now

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Speaker 4: we're going to start going to war over these persuadables.

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Speaker 4: Both camps are going to try to paint Harris with

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Speaker 4: a certain brush and we're going to have to take

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Speaker 4: a look at these persuadables, these independence in the swing

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Speaker 4: states to see which way they end up going. That's

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Speaker 4: going to be the ultimate decider of this election. Still,

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Speaker 4: at this point in time, the momentum of the Harris

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Speaker 4: campaign is impressive. You know that the Democrats had campaign

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Speaker 4: really that was, you know, maybe to use a bad

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Speaker 4: metaphor on life support. Now it's an entirely new campaign,

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Speaker 4: and I think that this momentum will ease and then

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Speaker 4: the true battle over the persuadables will take place from

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Speaker 4: Labor Day right until the election.

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Speaker 2: Wo the persuadables, I could see that being like a

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Speaker 2: new streaming series or something done. It's time for your

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Speaker 2: million dollar moment. Great to see you, welcome back. We're

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Speaker 2: always watching what Sienna is up to, and of course

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Speaker 2: the great Don Levy. Thank you Don for helping our

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Speaker 2: way through this campaign. Siena College Research Institute.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast Ken

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Speaker 1: Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then

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Speaker 1: Roudoto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen

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Speaker 1: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station

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Speaker 1: Just Say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Speaker 7: We continue to assess what continues to be history making

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Speaker 7: news cycle when it comes to both the current president

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Speaker 7: and of course his vice president who is running to

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Speaker 7: replace him come January of twenty twenty five. And of

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Speaker 7: course the other candidate in this race is former President

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Speaker 7: Donald Trump. And joining us now here in studio someone

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Speaker 7: who worked in the Trump White Houses, acting Chief of

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Speaker 7: Staff mc mulvaney is with us. He of course, also

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Speaker 7: is co founder of the Freedom Caucus as a former

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Speaker 7: congressman from South Carolina, former director of the OMB. We

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Speaker 7: all know you have a very long resume. Great to

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Speaker 7: see you in person. Not much going on these days.

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Speaker 5: We caught up with you.

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Speaker 7: It has been a while. So much has happened in

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Speaker 7: such a very short period of time, including for Donald Trump,

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Speaker 7: not just a surviving an assassination attempt, then selecting JD.

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Speaker 7: Vance as his vice presidential candidate.

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Speaker 8: Happened before Busy a couple of weeks.

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Speaker 7: Joe Biden dropped out of the race, and Kamala Harris

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Speaker 7: became the presumptive nominee. Knowing what you know of Donald Trump,

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Speaker 7: do you think he regrets that choice or would have

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Speaker 7: decided differently if he had the knowledge we now have.

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Speaker 9: Listen, I'll preface this by saying, Look, anybody who says

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Speaker 9: now they know exactly what's going to happen has been

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Speaker 9: proven wrong, right, because we're way through the looking glass

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Speaker 9: now and no one ever expected any of this. So

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Speaker 9: if you sit here and say well absolutely X y Z,

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Speaker 9: I could be proven entirely wrong tomorrow. So with that caveat,

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Speaker 9: I don't think there's much chance they're even having this conversation.

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Speaker 8: Here's why.

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Speaker 9: Let's say that that I'm Donald Trump and I'm thinking

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Speaker 9: about Joe Matthew for position X.

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Speaker 8: Kaylee, what do you think about Joe? You think about Joe?

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Speaker 8: He's here, He's a good guy. What do you hear

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Speaker 8: about him?

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Speaker 9: Okay, if he's asking those questions of somebody that he

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Speaker 9: hasn't hired yet, it means he's thinking about hiring them.

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Speaker 9: If he's asking similar questions, Kaylee, what do you think

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Speaker 9: about Joe? What kind of a job is he doing.

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Speaker 8: What are you hearing?

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Speaker 9: And he's already hired that person. That means he's thinking

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Speaker 9: about firing that person. Okay, that's that's how that dynamic works. Sure,

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Speaker 9: I've not heard any of that out of the Trump team.

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Speaker 4: Right now.

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Speaker 8: Trump is not asking people what do they think about JD. Evans?

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Speaker 8: You know, how's he doing.

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Speaker 9: I do have some questions about whether or not the

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Speaker 9: vetting team knew about these things that we're now hearing about.

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Speaker 8: The lady exactly did they hear about that? And listen,

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Speaker 8: there's a pretty good chance they did.

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Speaker 9: They got a pretty good social media team and they

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Speaker 9: probably just didn't care. Again, JD was was a selection

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Speaker 9: born of supreme confidence.

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Speaker 8: They thought they were going to win.

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Speaker 9: They still think they're going to win, and they just

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Speaker 9: wanted somebody that Trump likes to work with, and they

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Speaker 9: didn't want to worry about any of the other dynamics

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Speaker 9: of picking up states or demographics. It's the only person,

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Speaker 9: remember that he can't fire after the election, Cabinet secretary's

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Speaker 9: chiefs of staff. Whatever you can get rid of, you

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Speaker 9: can't get rid of of your VP. So they took

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Speaker 9: him because they liked him, and they still think they

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Speaker 9: do so. Look, he could get fired tomorrow. I get it,

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Speaker 9: but I'm just not hearing it.

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Speaker 2: So what's your view on the way this race has changed.

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Speaker 2: Don Levy from Siena was on with us earlier telling

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Speaker 2: a remarkable story about momentum in the polls. It's been

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Speaker 2: a game changer, certainly coming even with Donald Trump here

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Speaker 2: in the states that matter, two hundred million dollars in

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Speaker 2: a week, getting enormous amounts of free media. Should Donald

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Speaker 2: Trump be more worried than he was, Well, he could

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Speaker 2: go more.

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Speaker 9: Worried, I think if he was going to waltz into

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Speaker 9: the into the White House against Joe Biden.

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Speaker 2: So how do you describe Is it still his to lose?

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Speaker 9: I think it's a I went from an eighty twenty

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Speaker 9: kind of race to a fifty two forty eight kind

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Speaker 9: of race. Keep in mind, and there's an axiom in

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Speaker 9: this business that you know, you're never really more popular

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Speaker 9: than the day you announced you're running for office, and

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Speaker 9: it's all downhill after that. In fact, that happened to

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Speaker 9: Kamala Harris back in twenty twenty. She had that fabulous rollout.

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Speaker 9: Whereas at Oakland or San Francisco, I can't remember and

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Speaker 9: I remember watching our and TV going those are Trump

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Speaker 9: type rallies. That's a tremendous rollout for a campaign. This

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Speaker 9: is when she was running for president, and then six

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Speaker 9: weeks later she's gone before Iowa even opened up. So

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Speaker 9: you're never more popular than you are in day one.

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Speaker 9: You expect a bounce. Look, I get the Democrats credit.

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Speaker 9: I never expected them to get their act together this quickly.

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Speaker 9: I was sort of, you know, buying popcorn and getting

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Speaker 9: ready to hunt her down in front of the Democrat

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Speaker 9: National Convention and just watching the fireworks, thinking it was

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Speaker 9: going to be a wide open sort of rodeo.

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Speaker 8: It's not. And you give them credit. They have done

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Speaker 8: better than.

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Speaker 9: I think a lot of folks, including some Democrats, expected

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Speaker 9: them to do. But this race is far from over,

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Speaker 9: and I think you're gonna hear a lot of things

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Speaker 9: about Kamala Harris from Republicans over the next ninety nine days.

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Speaker 7: Well, so as we think about the excitement her candidacy

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Speaker 7: seems to have generated. To Joe's point, a big part

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Speaker 7: of this is money. The Kamala Harris campaign has raised

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Speaker 7: more than two hundred million dollars, a lot of that

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Speaker 7: from first time small dollar donors. We aren't necessarily hearing

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Speaker 7: much fund raising news out of the Trump campaign to

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Speaker 7: counter that, And I just wonder how you think about

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Speaker 7: the cash part of the equation here and the ability

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Speaker 7: to spend money in the states that matter.

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Speaker 8: Yeah, look, it's no question about it. It's absolutely critical.

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Speaker 8: It's probably more critical down ballot than it is for

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Speaker 8: anything else. But at the end of the day, I.

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Speaker 9: Mean, look, Trump had a great news cycle. I think

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Speaker 9: the last time they put out numbers, how we outraised Biden.

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Speaker 9: Kamala Harris has had a good number this time. Both

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Speaker 9: of these teams are going to have enough money to

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Speaker 9: do everything that they want to do. Now, down ballot's

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Speaker 9: a different story. So if you're Hakim Jeffreys or you're

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Speaker 9: Michael Johnson, you're fighting it, slugging it out for every

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Speaker 9: single seat in the House form majority down there. You know,

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Speaker 9: if there's enough money is a question that still remains.

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Speaker 9: But at the top of the ticket, they're going to

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Speaker 9: have enough dough to do what they want and keep on.

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Speaker 9: You never know, is money that comes in today money

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Speaker 9: that was going to come in tomorrow, or is it

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Speaker 9: really new money? Is it just money that came in earlier.

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Speaker 9: Was it money that was held back last time? There's

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Speaker 9: all sorts of all sorts of variables when it comes

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Speaker 9: to money raising.

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Speaker 8: But there listen, no one's going poor in this race.

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Speaker 8: That's for sure.

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Speaker 2: That's for sure. I don't know if the campaign cares

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Speaker 2: at all who Kamala Harris is going to run with.

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Speaker 2: I suspect that there's some consideration there. But if you

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Speaker 2: take the red hat off for a minute, who do

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Speaker 2: you think Kamala Harris if it's down to this three,

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Speaker 2: does she go with somebody like a rust belt governor?

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Speaker 2: Does it need to be a swing state? Why are

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Speaker 2: we talking about governor of Minnesota?

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Speaker 9: For If you fall back on the basics right on

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Speaker 9: how you usually pick a vice president. You pick a

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Speaker 9: vice president based upon a need for your campaign. Is

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Speaker 9: it money, which is why Reagan took Bush? Is it expertise,

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Speaker 9: which is why Ducacas took Benson. Is it a swing

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Speaker 9: state which is why Romney took rhynd didn't work out

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Speaker 9: that well, but that was the pick. I think you're

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Speaker 9: back in that world, right, that's a swing state type

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Speaker 9: of thing. Shapiro So well, no, no, no, because you've

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Speaker 9: got what are the swing states?

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Speaker 8: Yeah, Shapiro's in the list.

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Speaker 2: Well, you could do Kelly in Arizona.

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Speaker 8: Kelly in Arizona, Whitmer in Michigan. Walls and in Minute Soda is.

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Speaker 2: A state they'd love to lock up, no question about it.

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Speaker 2: And really they're a geographic advantage to Walls of Minisi.

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Speaker 9: Absolutely, much much more so, say than Cooper in North Carolina,

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Speaker 9: who I really don't think the Democrats think they can win.

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Speaker 9: And Basher, who's a very talented guy Democrat who wanted

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Speaker 9: a red state whose name has sort of fallen off

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Speaker 9: the map already because it's not a swing state. So

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Speaker 9: I think that's where they're looking at.

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Speaker 10: Well.

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Speaker 7: We also understand that her campaign is considering not just

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Speaker 7: who they want to be vice president, but also the

435
00:21:24,720 --> 00:21:26,840
Speaker 7: kind of policy that they want to pursue. There's been

436
00:21:26,840 --> 00:21:29,200
Speaker 7: reporting in the last few days, especially in the aftermath

437
00:21:29,280 --> 00:21:32,320
Speaker 7: of Donald Trump's appearance at the Bitcoin conference in Nashville

438
00:21:32,359 --> 00:21:34,920
Speaker 7: this weekend, that the Harris campaign is looking to court

439
00:21:35,000 --> 00:21:38,160
Speaker 7: the crypto industry a bit more for a reset, if

440
00:21:38,160 --> 00:21:40,280
Speaker 7: you will. We've heard the same from Democrats who support her,

441
00:21:40,320 --> 00:21:44,320
Speaker 7: like Congressman Wiley Nickel, who's pro crypto. Do you believe that,

442
00:21:44,680 --> 00:21:46,800
Speaker 7: and do you believe Donald Trump, who used to call

443
00:21:46,840 --> 00:21:49,600
Speaker 7: bitcoin a scam, is actually going to be friendlier toward

444
00:21:49,680 --> 00:21:50,919
Speaker 7: the industry this time around.

445
00:21:51,359 --> 00:21:53,600
Speaker 9: The answer to the second question is yes, easy, because

446
00:21:53,640 --> 00:21:55,520
Speaker 9: I don't think this is not one of the things

447
00:21:55,520 --> 00:21:56,399
Speaker 9: that Trump is married to.

448
00:21:56,560 --> 00:21:56,720
Speaker 5: Right.

449
00:21:56,960 --> 00:22:02,040
Speaker 9: Trump feels very strong about immigration and tax and regulation. Okay,

450
00:22:02,200 --> 00:22:05,080
Speaker 9: that he really really does. I don't think he cares

451
00:22:05,160 --> 00:22:07,199
Speaker 9: really one way or the other about crypto. So if

452
00:22:07,200 --> 00:22:09,119
Speaker 9: you say, well, he's changed policies from last time in

453
00:22:09,200 --> 00:22:10,679
Speaker 9: he's the office, Yeah, and I buy that, And he

454
00:22:10,720 --> 00:22:13,200
Speaker 9: could be the greatest defender of crypto in the world.

455
00:22:13,320 --> 00:22:14,840
Speaker 8: I absolutely believe that's possible.

456
00:22:15,000 --> 00:22:16,800
Speaker 9: To your first question, do I believe when it comes

457
00:22:16,840 --> 00:22:18,639
Speaker 9: to the Democrats, Eh, And here's why I'm not just

458
00:22:18,680 --> 00:22:21,399
Speaker 9: saying that because I'm a Republican and they're Democrats. They've

459
00:22:21,440 --> 00:22:24,440
Speaker 9: got Look, we're both parties are big parties, right, you

460
00:22:24,520 --> 00:22:26,159
Speaker 9: only got two parties in country of one hundred and

461
00:22:26,200 --> 00:22:28,800
Speaker 9: three hundred fifty million people. They're not going to be monolithic.

462
00:22:29,040 --> 00:22:31,640
Speaker 9: But within that Democrat party on this particular issue, they

463
00:22:31,680 --> 00:22:33,639
Speaker 9: have a wide variety of issues.

464
00:22:33,720 --> 00:22:34,840
Speaker 8: Who are the most.

465
00:22:34,600 --> 00:22:38,240
Speaker 9: Anti crypto people in this town? Liz Warren and Bernie Sanders,

466
00:22:38,320 --> 00:22:40,120
Speaker 9: maybe certainly Liz Warren, maybe Dick Durbin.

467
00:22:40,200 --> 00:22:43,959
Speaker 8: I can't remember. Yeah, I mean I forgot about Gary

468
00:22:44,200 --> 00:22:46,919
Speaker 8: Yeah hy Gary see it? Yeah.

469
00:22:46,960 --> 00:22:49,600
Speaker 9: So I mean that's are there democrats like Wiley Nicol

470
00:22:49,640 --> 00:22:53,680
Speaker 9: who are are strongly pro crypto, absolutely, But the big

471
00:22:53,760 --> 00:22:55,680
Speaker 9: names in the anti crypto world, the people that really

472
00:22:55,720 --> 00:22:58,119
Speaker 9: would love to ban it if they got the chance,

473
00:22:58,400 --> 00:23:01,840
Speaker 9: are Democrats. And I think that's a problem that that

474
00:23:01,840 --> 00:23:03,679
Speaker 9: that Kamala Harrison is going to have to navigate that

475
00:23:03,720 --> 00:23:04,560
Speaker 9: Donald Trump doesn't.

476
00:23:04,640 --> 00:23:06,560
Speaker 2: So if Donald Trump can have an evolution like that

477
00:23:06,680 --> 00:23:11,000
Speaker 2: on crypto, does Elon Musk help him find religion on EV's?

478
00:23:12,520 --> 00:23:14,840
Speaker 9: You know, the thing on EV's I think is probably

479
00:23:15,000 --> 00:23:20,480
Speaker 9: less is less the concept of an EV and whether

480
00:23:20,560 --> 00:23:22,679
Speaker 9: or not we're doing it in what Trump might be

481
00:23:22,720 --> 00:23:25,479
Speaker 9: able to describe as an America first sort of manner.

482
00:23:25,520 --> 00:23:28,520
Speaker 9: Are we making them or is somebody else making them?

483
00:23:28,840 --> 00:23:30,480
Speaker 8: You go back to the speech that he gave.

484
00:23:30,680 --> 00:23:32,840
Speaker 9: About the car industry in Mexico that got, you know,

485
00:23:32,920 --> 00:23:35,719
Speaker 9: wrongly attributed as that blood bass, right, I think that

486
00:23:35,800 --> 00:23:37,879
Speaker 9: was that was not an anti EV speech? Is what

487
00:23:38,080 --> 00:23:39,600
Speaker 9: was an anti China?

488
00:23:39,720 --> 00:23:40,920
Speaker 2: The version that he'd.

489
00:23:40,680 --> 00:23:42,640
Speaker 9: Like to say I think I think if TESLA could

490
00:23:42,640 --> 00:23:44,720
Speaker 9: make an argument that you know, they've got a way

491
00:23:44,720 --> 00:23:49,280
Speaker 9: to provide low, low price, good quality, non government subsidized

492
00:23:49,280 --> 00:23:52,119
Speaker 9: electronic vehicles, why would Donald Trump care? But yeah, to

493
00:23:52,200 --> 00:23:54,520
Speaker 9: your point, because I could see the twinkle in your eye.

494
00:23:54,520 --> 00:23:56,560
Speaker 9: If you spend forty five million dollars a month or whatever,

495
00:23:58,240 --> 00:24:00,000
Speaker 9: do you get an open door passed to the White House.

496
00:24:00,040 --> 00:24:02,520
Speaker 9: The answer is yes, you do. Wow, he was there.

497
00:24:02,560 --> 00:24:03,200
Speaker 9: I think I bumped it.

498
00:24:03,240 --> 00:24:05,720
Speaker 2: And he used to be the gatekeeper at I met him.

499
00:24:05,600 --> 00:24:08,320
Speaker 8: Half a dozen times. One of the most.

500
00:24:10,240 --> 00:24:13,160
Speaker 9: Strangely intelligent men you've ever met in your entire life.

501
00:24:13,240 --> 00:24:15,320
Speaker 9: I'm not sure I understood a thing that he said,

502
00:24:15,560 --> 00:24:17,520
Speaker 9: but I'm pretty sure he's a lot smarter than I am.

503
00:24:17,720 --> 00:24:21,440
Speaker 2: Well, they didn't get an invite the day GM Chrysler

504
00:24:21,600 --> 00:24:22,400
Speaker 2: Ford Stilantis.

505
00:24:23,680 --> 00:24:25,800
Speaker 9: I don't think he needs when you've got when you've

506
00:24:25,800 --> 00:24:28,199
Speaker 9: got the private number, I don't think you need to

507
00:24:28,200 --> 00:24:29,399
Speaker 9: come in with the rest of the crowd.

508
00:24:29,520 --> 00:24:32,800
Speaker 2: Fair enought let another month ago or whatever.

509
00:24:32,800 --> 00:24:37,280
Speaker 9: It's well, it's you know, amazingly people all around the

510
00:24:37,280 --> 00:24:38,560
Speaker 9: world want to talk about our election.

511
00:24:39,080 --> 00:24:39,640
Speaker 2: About that.

512
00:24:39,680 --> 00:24:42,000
Speaker 8: I had no idea. I'm huge in Australia by the way.

513
00:24:41,880 --> 00:24:44,480
Speaker 2: Case yes, yeah, wow, all right, well they have good taste.

514
00:24:44,560 --> 00:24:46,280
Speaker 2: Let us know what they're asking you next time you're on.

515
00:24:46,560 --> 00:24:49,399
Speaker 2: Mick Maulvaney always a treat former Acting Chief of Staff

516
00:24:49,400 --> 00:24:52,680
Speaker 2: Trump Administration's co founder of the Freedom Caucus. Kaylee, we've

517
00:24:52,720 --> 00:24:54,719
Speaker 2: looked forward to this conversation for a minute. We'll get

518
00:24:54,800 --> 00:24:56,760
Speaker 2: him back soon for you here and we'll assemble our

519
00:24:57,000 --> 00:24:59,359
Speaker 2: panel coming up next, Rick Davis and g. D. Shanzano.

520
00:24:59,720 --> 00:25:02,439
Speaker 2: Hold forth, You're on the fastest show in politics and

521
00:25:02,480 --> 00:25:06,400
Speaker 2: it's only Monday. I'm Joe Matthew alongside Kaylee Lion. Stay

522
00:25:06,440 --> 00:25:11,080
Speaker 2: with us on Bloomberg TV and radio.

523
00:25:12,240 --> 00:25:15,760
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

524
00:25:15,840 --> 00:25:18,879
Speaker 1: Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apocarplay and then

525
00:25:18,920 --> 00:25:22,400
Speaker 1: Proudo with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever

526
00:25:22,440 --> 00:25:26,040
Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

527
00:25:28,080 --> 00:25:30,640
Speaker 7: We pay attention to the happenings here in Washington, yes,

528
00:25:30,720 --> 00:25:33,520
Speaker 7: but also around the world when it comes to politics,

529
00:25:33,520 --> 00:25:35,960
Speaker 7: and certainly there is a lot of political news coming

530
00:25:35,960 --> 00:25:40,320
Speaker 7: from Venezuela after the country's presidential election on Sunday, the

531
00:25:40,359 --> 00:25:45,040
Speaker 7: country's electoral Council has just certified that Nicholas Maduro, of course,

532
00:25:45,080 --> 00:25:48,600
Speaker 7: the incumbent president, won the election yesterday and will have

533
00:25:48,640 --> 00:25:52,359
Speaker 7: another six year term, his third. However, this comes after

534
00:25:52,400 --> 00:25:56,080
Speaker 7: the opposition cast doubt on the actual results of the election.

535
00:25:56,160 --> 00:25:59,719
Speaker 7: Exit polling has suggested that Maduro's challenger was actually pulling

536
00:26:00,080 --> 00:26:03,240
Speaker 7: far ahead of him in Venezuela. Of course, earlier this afternoon,

537
00:26:03,320 --> 00:26:06,400
Speaker 7: Joe named and opposition leader Maria Machado as a key

538
00:26:06,520 --> 00:26:11,960
Speaker 7: suspect in its investigation into alleged electoral sabotage, and this

539
00:26:12,040 --> 00:26:14,840
Speaker 7: has taken the notice of many countries around the world,

540
00:26:14,840 --> 00:26:17,200
Speaker 7: including the US. We heard from Secretary of Saint Anthony

541
00:26:17,240 --> 00:26:20,400
Speaker 7: Blincoln earlier today saying that he had serious concerns, yes

542
00:26:20,440 --> 00:26:22,520
Speaker 7: about these results in Venezuela.

543
00:26:21,960 --> 00:26:24,800
Speaker 2: Serious concerns. The result does not reflect the will or

544
00:26:24,840 --> 00:26:27,320
Speaker 2: the votes of the Venezuelan people. That's where we are here.

545
00:26:27,320 --> 00:26:31,879
Speaker 2: And Maria Carina Machado, who Kylee mentions, called the result impossible,

546
00:26:32,000 --> 00:26:35,600
Speaker 2: saying we won and the whole world knows it. So

547
00:26:35,640 --> 00:26:39,600
Speaker 2: the question, Kaylee then becomes about us response, and Bloomberg

548
00:26:39,680 --> 00:26:43,359
Speaker 2: has a really important story just up on the terminal.

549
00:26:43,480 --> 00:26:46,280
Speaker 2: Eric Martin writing that the US will determine future sanctions

550
00:26:46,280 --> 00:26:50,200
Speaker 2: on Venezuela based on whether Maduro's government releases fully releases

551
00:26:50,320 --> 00:26:52,679
Speaker 2: voting data here, So we're just at the beginning of

552
00:26:52,720 --> 00:26:53,200
Speaker 2: the story.

553
00:26:53,200 --> 00:26:55,600
Speaker 7: It scenes, Yeah, and of course it was in part

554
00:26:55,640 --> 00:26:57,720
Speaker 7: the US's own data in the exit polls that it

555
00:26:57,760 --> 00:27:00,280
Speaker 7: were seeing that were mismatch with what actually came out

556
00:27:00,280 --> 00:27:04,400
Speaker 7: of the Electoral Council invest So this is, to your point,

557
00:27:04,400 --> 00:27:06,600
Speaker 7: show a story that is certainly far from over. The

558
00:27:06,720 --> 00:27:09,200
Speaker 7: US not the only country that has a lot of

559
00:27:09,320 --> 00:27:12,520
Speaker 7: drama around true election these days.

560
00:27:12,600 --> 00:27:14,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, how true. Let's talk about the drama in our

561
00:27:14,560 --> 00:27:17,280
Speaker 2: own with our signature panel back with us today on

562
00:27:17,320 --> 00:27:19,760
Speaker 2: the Monday edition of Ballots of Power. Rick Davis and

563
00:27:19,840 --> 00:27:23,600
Speaker 2: Genie Shanzo Bloomberg Politics contributors holding forth here as we

564
00:27:23,640 --> 00:27:25,679
Speaker 2: try to make our way through the deep steaks in

565
00:27:25,720 --> 00:27:27,840
Speaker 2: the next week or so. As Kaylee mentioned, they've got

566
00:27:27,840 --> 00:27:30,760
Speaker 2: it down to three here, and we'd love your take

567
00:27:30,920 --> 00:27:34,000
Speaker 2: on this story and of course, some of many of

568
00:27:34,000 --> 00:27:37,600
Speaker 2: the other cross currents in the campaign. Genie, what's your

569
00:27:37,640 --> 00:27:41,080
Speaker 2: take right now on the big three that Bloomberg has

570
00:27:41,160 --> 00:27:45,840
Speaker 2: highlighted The governors of Minnesota and Pennsylvania as well as

571
00:27:45,960 --> 00:27:49,880
Speaker 2: the Senator from Arizona. They each bring their own promise.

572
00:27:50,359 --> 00:27:52,480
Speaker 2: But in the case of Tim Walls of Minnesota, not

573
00:27:52,520 --> 00:27:55,800
Speaker 2: a swing state, what do you think Kamala Harris is considering?

574
00:27:57,560 --> 00:27:59,679
Speaker 11: You know, I was surprised that he is on the

575
00:27:59,720 --> 00:28:03,520
Speaker 11: top three to a certain extent, because I think, if

576
00:28:03,520 --> 00:28:06,200
Speaker 11: you're gonna go swing state, you might as well go

577
00:28:06,320 --> 00:28:10,399
Speaker 11: big with Pennsylvania or Arizona. But of course they would

578
00:28:10,440 --> 00:28:13,320
Speaker 11: like to lock up Minnesota. So and he does have

579
00:28:13,359 --> 00:28:16,359
Speaker 11: an important record out there. He is well known, he

580
00:28:16,480 --> 00:28:20,159
Speaker 11: is well liked. He was auditioning this weekend on the

581
00:28:20,200 --> 00:28:24,480
Speaker 11: Sunday shows, So certainly he is in contention. You know,

582
00:28:24,600 --> 00:28:28,720
Speaker 11: one thing that I think is worth noting is this

583
00:28:28,920 --> 00:28:33,000
Speaker 11: drive to go with a white man and leaving a

584
00:28:33,080 --> 00:28:36,080
Speaker 11: side Gretchen Whitmer, who said she doesn't want to be considered.

585
00:28:36,400 --> 00:28:40,240
Speaker 11: But Michigan and Whitmer is a really important state. And

586
00:28:40,640 --> 00:28:43,400
Speaker 11: I keep in the back of my mind wondering does

587
00:28:43,480 --> 00:28:46,840
Speaker 11: Kamala Harris surprise everybody by going with Whitmer. She is

588
00:28:46,880 --> 00:28:50,640
Speaker 11: a very good politician of you know, well liked in

589
00:28:50,760 --> 00:28:54,120
Speaker 11: her state. It's a swing state, it's one the Democrats need,

590
00:28:54,480 --> 00:28:57,080
Speaker 11: and I think to count somebody out due to gender

591
00:28:57,320 --> 00:28:59,680
Speaker 11: is troubling to me. So I just want to put

592
00:28:59,680 --> 00:29:02,080
Speaker 11: that out out there. But that's what we've been hearing there,

593
00:29:02,120 --> 00:29:03,160
Speaker 11: looking for a white man.

594
00:29:05,000 --> 00:29:05,240
Speaker 5: Yeah.

595
00:29:05,240 --> 00:29:07,200
Speaker 7: Well, and certainly most of the list does seem to

596
00:29:07,200 --> 00:29:09,200
Speaker 7: be comprised of that. But Rick, what do you think

597
00:29:09,240 --> 00:29:12,840
Speaker 7: about Genie's point on Governor Whitmer, who herself has says

598
00:29:12,920 --> 00:29:14,800
Speaker 7: she wants to stay in Michigan in the job she

599
00:29:14,840 --> 00:29:19,080
Speaker 7: currently has. Is this about America's perhaps lack of readiness

600
00:29:19,240 --> 00:29:21,720
Speaker 7: to have a female president and vice president or is

601
00:29:21,760 --> 00:29:25,520
Speaker 7: this just about someone saying, don't pick me please.

602
00:29:27,080 --> 00:29:30,480
Speaker 10: Yeah, I think that we have to believe Whitmer that

603
00:29:30,600 --> 00:29:32,560
Speaker 10: she doesn't want to be picked. So she's not on

604
00:29:32,600 --> 00:29:34,720
Speaker 10: a list anymore. I think she was on an earlier

605
00:29:34,760 --> 00:29:37,880
Speaker 10: list that had been circulated. I think Gina Ramundo was

606
00:29:37,920 --> 00:29:40,840
Speaker 10: on another earlier list that had been circulated. I mean,

607
00:29:40,880 --> 00:29:43,040
Speaker 10: I don't think they're not looking at women. I think

608
00:29:43,080 --> 00:29:46,680
Speaker 10: they're finding that they have other options. And I think

609
00:29:46,680 --> 00:29:50,600
Speaker 10: they're clearly looking at targeted states like Arizona, you know,

610
00:29:50,680 --> 00:29:53,880
Speaker 10: and Pennsylvania, and by the way, Minnesota is not a

611
00:29:53,960 --> 00:29:57,280
Speaker 10: chip shot for Democrats. At one point in time, right

612
00:29:57,320 --> 00:30:00,800
Speaker 10: after the convention, the Republicans came out. They're saying, we're

613
00:30:00,800 --> 00:30:03,360
Speaker 10: putting all these states in play. We're gonna put Minnesota

614
00:30:03,360 --> 00:30:07,040
Speaker 10: in play. We're going to you know, put other states

615
00:30:07,080 --> 00:30:10,720
Speaker 10: that are sort of you know, Democrat leaning states in play.

616
00:30:10,920 --> 00:30:14,120
Speaker 10: And so to be able to lock up Minnesota, you know,

617
00:30:14,200 --> 00:30:17,520
Speaker 10: with Tim Waltz is not a bad option for the Democrats.

618
00:30:17,840 --> 00:30:21,560
Speaker 10: Takes another you know, chess piece off the board and

619
00:30:21,560 --> 00:30:24,560
Speaker 10: and gets the focus back down to where the Democrats

620
00:30:24,600 --> 00:30:26,960
Speaker 10: I think always wanted it, which is there are only

621
00:30:27,000 --> 00:30:29,240
Speaker 10: six or seven states that matter. Let's keep our focus

622
00:30:29,280 --> 00:30:31,640
Speaker 10: on that. We're not looking at Minnesota, We're not looking

623
00:30:31,640 --> 00:30:35,920
Speaker 10: at New Hampshire, you know, these other border leaners. So yeah,

624
00:30:36,000 --> 00:30:38,280
Speaker 10: I think they've got the trading range down to where

625
00:30:38,320 --> 00:30:40,800
Speaker 10: they want it. I think they've done it effectively in

626
00:30:40,840 --> 00:30:42,040
Speaker 10: a very short period of time.

627
00:30:43,000 --> 00:30:43,960
Speaker 8: Now you've got to pick them.

628
00:30:44,000 --> 00:30:46,400
Speaker 10: And they all have advantages and disadvantages. They all have

629
00:30:46,440 --> 00:30:50,280
Speaker 10: different personalities. Uh and uh. And I think all of

630
00:30:50,360 --> 00:30:53,840
Speaker 10: them though, tend to benefit the ticket. And I'm you know,

631
00:30:53,960 --> 00:30:56,840
Speaker 10: like you think that's kind of obvious except JD.

632
00:30:57,000 --> 00:30:57,320
Speaker 8: Vance.

633
00:30:57,360 --> 00:31:00,640
Speaker 10: I mean, in retrospect, everyone's in the Republican are scratching

634
00:31:00,680 --> 00:31:03,040
Speaker 10: ahead and going, how in the world did this benefit

635
00:31:03,120 --> 00:31:03,520
Speaker 10: the ticket?

636
00:31:05,680 --> 00:31:07,680
Speaker 2: You know, it's really interesting you say that, Rick, The

637
00:31:07,760 --> 00:31:10,080
Speaker 2: Washington Post reporting that in the last two days before

638
00:31:10,120 --> 00:31:15,240
Speaker 2: Donald Trump picked JD. Vance, quote, an array of senators, donors,

639
00:31:15,480 --> 00:31:20,560
Speaker 2: conservative media personalities, and other supporters unquote urged Donald Trump

640
00:31:21,080 --> 00:31:26,000
Speaker 2: to pick someone else as we consider childless cat ladies, Rick,

641
00:31:26,080 --> 00:31:30,120
Speaker 2: where are we on the idea here that Donald Trump

642
00:31:30,360 --> 00:31:34,320
Speaker 2: may have made a poor choice and buyer's remorse throughout

643
00:31:34,360 --> 00:31:34,800
Speaker 2: the GOP.

644
00:31:36,720 --> 00:31:39,440
Speaker 10: Look, when Don Junior is calling the shots, this is

645
00:31:39,480 --> 00:31:43,280
Speaker 10: what you get. And I think that there's such a

646
00:31:43,520 --> 00:31:49,479
Speaker 10: close link around former President Trump and his family, and

647
00:31:49,520 --> 00:31:53,360
Speaker 10: I'm sure that the family echo chamber is strong that JD.

648
00:31:53,480 --> 00:31:55,680
Speaker 10: Vance was the guy all along, that he's the one

649
00:31:55,680 --> 00:31:59,360
Speaker 10: who can continue the march for MAGA. And that may

650
00:31:59,400 --> 00:32:01,840
Speaker 10: be true on its own right. Whether MAGA, you know,

651
00:32:01,960 --> 00:32:07,160
Speaker 10: can expand beyond Donald Trump's you know, current constituency. I

652
00:32:07,160 --> 00:32:10,000
Speaker 10: don't think anybody who believes Vance can do that for them.

653
00:32:10,120 --> 00:32:13,120
Speaker 10: But look, I mean, there is a portion of the

654
00:32:13,200 --> 00:32:16,920
Speaker 10: Republican Party, or at least the MAGA party where you

655
00:32:16,960 --> 00:32:20,720
Speaker 10: know he is. He's wildly popular, regardless of some of

656
00:32:20,720 --> 00:32:24,440
Speaker 10: his cat lady mentions and things like that. So, uh,

657
00:32:24,480 --> 00:32:27,440
Speaker 10: it may be weird, but it is the current state

658
00:32:27,480 --> 00:32:29,000
Speaker 10: of play within the Republican Party.

659
00:32:30,840 --> 00:32:33,360
Speaker 7: Well, we should hear from the Senator from Ohio and

660
00:32:33,440 --> 00:32:36,080
Speaker 7: vice presidential nominee himself, because he was asked about the

661
00:32:36,080 --> 00:32:39,120
Speaker 7: cat lady thing last night on Fox. Here was how

662
00:32:39,120 --> 00:32:39,680
Speaker 7: that went.

663
00:32:39,520 --> 00:32:43,440
Speaker 6: Down, Nons and priests aside, do you agree that there

664
00:32:43,440 --> 00:32:46,400
Speaker 6: are people who very much love this country and are

665
00:32:46,520 --> 00:32:50,880
Speaker 6: invested in his future, but they also happen to be childless?

666
00:32:53,120 --> 00:32:55,080
Speaker 4: Oh, of course I believe that, Tray, And if you

667
00:32:55,120 --> 00:32:57,120
Speaker 4: look at the full context of what I said, it's

668
00:32:57,240 --> 00:32:59,320
Speaker 4: very clear the Democrats have tried to take this thing

669
00:32:59,360 --> 00:33:01,440
Speaker 4: out of content and blow it out of.

670
00:33:01,360 --> 00:33:03,240
Speaker 2: Proportion, which is what they always do.

671
00:33:03,240 --> 00:33:03,720
Speaker 10: Trey.

672
00:33:05,840 --> 00:33:09,680
Speaker 7: Genie blown out of proportion or not? The genie's kind

673
00:33:09,680 --> 00:33:12,880
Speaker 7: of out of the bottle on this one. Are Democrats

674
00:33:12,880 --> 00:33:14,520
Speaker 7: going to be able to keep up this line of

675
00:33:14,520 --> 00:33:16,560
Speaker 7: attack on Jdvans or are they going to have to

676
00:33:16,600 --> 00:33:19,000
Speaker 7: come up with something else as we still have four

677
00:33:19,040 --> 00:33:21,000
Speaker 7: months to go, and a lot of the enthusiasm and

678
00:33:21,080 --> 00:33:23,719
Speaker 7: energy we've maybe seen over the last week isn't necessarily

679
00:33:23,760 --> 00:33:26,320
Speaker 7: sustainable for the next ninety nine days.

680
00:33:27,800 --> 00:33:30,240
Speaker 11: I think there will be more. This was a doozy

681
00:33:30,280 --> 00:33:32,600
Speaker 11: by jd. Vance to walk it back. He goes and

682
00:33:32,640 --> 00:33:36,040
Speaker 11: talks to Trey Goudy and Meghan Kelly. That's not going

683
00:33:36,160 --> 00:33:38,920
Speaker 11: to do it, and so he just keeps stepping in

684
00:33:38,960 --> 00:33:42,400
Speaker 11: it more and more. The reality is to win this election,

685
00:33:43,400 --> 00:33:48,719
Speaker 11: Republicans rather cannot discount suburban women, and that's what his

686
00:33:49,920 --> 00:33:53,600
Speaker 11: movement into the vice presidential pick has threatened to do

687
00:33:53,720 --> 00:33:55,880
Speaker 11: with statements like this. I mean, is there a way

688
00:33:55,880 --> 00:33:58,680
Speaker 11: to come back from it, for sure, but we haven't

689
00:33:58,680 --> 00:34:01,800
Speaker 11: seen them do this yet. But the reality is this

690
00:34:01,880 --> 00:34:05,440
Speaker 11: is all about Donald Trump. Donald Trump not listening to

691
00:34:05,720 --> 00:34:09,800
Speaker 11: the establishment. Talking about how everybody else makes VP picks

692
00:34:09,960 --> 00:34:13,520
Speaker 11: is nothing new in my view. He wanted somebody who

693
00:34:13,600 --> 00:34:16,400
Speaker 11: would do his bidding in a way Mike Pence wouldn't,

694
00:34:16,640 --> 00:34:18,600
Speaker 11: and that's what he was going for, and hence he

695
00:34:18,640 --> 00:34:21,200
Speaker 11: turned his back on people that may have made more sense,

696
00:34:21,280 --> 00:34:23,839
Speaker 11: like Doug Bergham and some of the others on the list,

697
00:34:23,920 --> 00:34:27,120
Speaker 11: and doubled down with JD. Vance, which doesn't reach out

698
00:34:27,120 --> 00:34:29,040
Speaker 11: and get him the votes he needs to win some

699
00:34:29,120 --> 00:34:30,040
Speaker 11: of these swing states.

700
00:34:33,320 --> 00:34:35,560
Speaker 2: All right, Rick and Jeanie, we thank you, as always

701
00:34:35,640 --> 00:34:38,120
Speaker 2: our signature panel with us on the Monday edition of

702
00:34:38,160 --> 00:34:40,520
Speaker 2: Balance of Powers. Genie Schanzano and Rick Davis will join

703
00:34:40,600 --> 00:34:42,560
Speaker 2: us as well a bit later on in the later

704
00:34:42,719 --> 00:34:45,280
Speaker 2: edition of Balance of Power that starts at five pm Eastern.

705
00:34:45,320 --> 00:34:47,759
Speaker 2: Tim Kayley, that'll be right around the time that Joe

706
00:34:47,800 --> 00:34:50,839
Speaker 2: Biden is talking about the Supreme Court, which will be

707
00:34:50,920 --> 00:34:53,799
Speaker 2: potentially newsy, although it's hard to see the path on

708
00:34:53,880 --> 00:34:56,520
Speaker 2: the proposals that he is putting forward when it comes

709
00:34:56,520 --> 00:34:59,239
Speaker 2: to term limits and a code of ethics. I've got

710
00:34:59,239 --> 00:35:01,480
Speaker 2: an interesting headline here we should mention before the news

711
00:35:01,600 --> 00:35:04,640
Speaker 2: the House announcing the Bipartisan task Force to probe Trump

712
00:35:04,719 --> 00:35:10,080
Speaker 2: shooting being comparing this to a Warren Commission, essentially following

713
00:35:10,120 --> 00:35:12,480
Speaker 2: what happened, and the reporting today on the fallout of

714
00:35:12,520 --> 00:35:17,200
Speaker 2: this assassination attempt is remarkable. The New York Times publishing

715
00:35:17,239 --> 00:35:21,440
Speaker 2: text messages showing that security officers at the rally identified

716
00:35:21,520 --> 00:35:24,800
Speaker 2: and talked about Thomas Crooks for more than an hour

717
00:35:24,880 --> 00:35:28,320
Speaker 2: and a half before he opened fire on the former president.

718
00:35:28,440 --> 00:35:31,319
Speaker 7: Yeah, more details continuing to come to light. Remembering that

719
00:35:31,360 --> 00:35:34,480
Speaker 7: this happened just about two weeks ago, it was not

720
00:35:34,600 --> 00:35:36,440
Speaker 7: that long ago, as we all have been living in

721
00:35:36,440 --> 00:35:39,280
Speaker 7: what feels like warp speed in American politics, and surely

722
00:35:39,320 --> 00:35:41,360
Speaker 7: more details will come to light as we have this

723
00:35:41,440 --> 00:35:43,960
Speaker 7: task force looking into the assassination. It's actually being led

724
00:35:44,000 --> 00:35:47,640
Speaker 7: by Republican Congressman Mike Kelly of Pennsylvania, who of course

725
00:35:47,640 --> 00:35:50,880
Speaker 7: had been pushing given the proximity of Butler to his district.

726
00:35:50,960 --> 00:35:53,120
Speaker 7: So we'll have much more on that of course throughout

727
00:35:53,320 --> 00:35:55,840
Speaker 7: the day here on Bloomberg, specifically on Balance of Power.

728
00:35:58,840 --> 00:36:02,160
Speaker 1: You're listening to the bloom Balance of Power podcast ken

729
00:36:02,360 --> 00:36:05,279
Speaker 1: just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apple CarPlay and

730
00:36:05,360 --> 00:36:08,440
Speaker 1: Enrounoo with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen

731
00:36:08,520 --> 00:36:11,640
Speaker 1: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,

732
00:36:12,040 --> 00:36:16,120
Speaker 1: Just Say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

733
00:36:16,920 --> 00:36:19,680
Speaker 2: Welcome to our TV and radio audiences worldwide. This is

734
00:36:19,719 --> 00:36:23,320
Speaker 2: Balance of Power. I'm Joe Matthew alongside Kaylee Lions, talking

735
00:36:23,360 --> 00:36:26,080
Speaker 2: politics with our eye on the financial markets as well.

736
00:36:26,080 --> 00:36:28,000
Speaker 2: A big week for both. Kaylee. We've got a FED

737
00:36:28,040 --> 00:36:30,279
Speaker 2: meeting Wednesday, We've got earnings. This is the big one,

738
00:36:30,320 --> 00:36:34,160
Speaker 2: right Microsoft, Apple and the rest reporting this week with

739
00:36:34,160 --> 00:36:36,280
Speaker 2: a lot of questions about the future of our economy

740
00:36:36,719 --> 00:36:39,680
Speaker 2: and the future of this presidential campaign, and so it

741
00:36:39,719 --> 00:36:42,800
Speaker 2: makes it easy to miss some of the headlines internationally

742
00:36:42,880 --> 00:36:45,720
Speaker 2: here with the news today from Venezuela, but also Israel,

743
00:36:46,160 --> 00:36:50,960
Speaker 2: as the Biden administration warns Israel that if it continues

744
00:36:51,000 --> 00:36:53,399
Speaker 2: to target Hesbala and in fact opens a new war

745
00:36:53,480 --> 00:36:56,680
Speaker 2: with them, this could spin out of control. Kaylee, We've

746
00:36:56,680 --> 00:36:59,640
Speaker 2: discussed this before with Hagar Shamali, who's going to join

747
00:36:59,719 --> 00:37:02,000
Speaker 2: us in a moment here. The question about a much

748
00:37:02,080 --> 00:37:04,759
Speaker 2: wider conflict in the Middle East is very real right now.

749
00:37:04,880 --> 00:37:07,560
Speaker 7: Yeah, especially after the events of this weekend, a rocket

750
00:37:07,560 --> 00:37:11,360
Speaker 7: attack that notably Hesbela has actually not claimed responsibility for

751
00:37:11,440 --> 00:37:13,480
Speaker 7: it has denied this, which is an unusual move for

752
00:37:13,520 --> 00:37:16,800
Speaker 7: the group, but it ended up killing twelve young people,

753
00:37:17,120 --> 00:37:21,560
Speaker 7: and net Yahoo has vowed a harsh response. The question

754
00:37:21,640 --> 00:37:24,440
Speaker 7: is how will the harshness of that response actually be calibrated,

755
00:37:24,520 --> 00:37:27,760
Speaker 7: especially considering the input of allies like the United States.

756
00:37:27,760 --> 00:37:30,200
Speaker 7: So for more, let's turn to Hagar Shamali, of course,

757
00:37:30,239 --> 00:37:32,640
Speaker 7: formerly of the National Security Council where she was director

758
00:37:32,640 --> 00:37:35,799
Speaker 7: for Syria and Lebanon, but now CEO and founder of

759
00:37:35,800 --> 00:37:38,359
Speaker 7: Greenwich Media Strategy. So are always great to have you here.

760
00:37:38,760 --> 00:37:41,239
Speaker 7: On balance of power. Obviously, this is a region of

761
00:37:41,280 --> 00:37:43,439
Speaker 7: the world that you know incredibly well. It is worth

762
00:37:43,440 --> 00:37:45,799
Speaker 7: pointing out that this did happen and what is many

763
00:37:45,880 --> 00:37:51,000
Speaker 7: internationally recognized as Syrian territory. This isn't necessarily somewhere where

764
00:37:51,040 --> 00:37:53,440
Speaker 7: you would expect Hesbelah to strike. So what is your

765
00:37:53,440 --> 00:37:55,520
Speaker 7: read on what exactly happened here and what you think

766
00:37:55,600 --> 00:37:56,720
Speaker 7: Israel might do next?

767
00:37:58,480 --> 00:38:01,000
Speaker 12: Well, from what we understand from both the Israelis but

768
00:38:01,040 --> 00:38:03,719
Speaker 12: also by the way, from the US government that said

769
00:38:03,719 --> 00:38:05,960
Speaker 12: that all signs indicate that Hesbela is the one that

770
00:38:06,040 --> 00:38:09,000
Speaker 12: launched these rockets. There were a barrage of about thirty rockets,

771
00:38:09,239 --> 00:38:11,600
Speaker 12: thirty missiles that hit that area that you talked about,

772
00:38:11,600 --> 00:38:15,000
Speaker 12: that soccer field where nearly a dozen children were killed.

773
00:38:15,160 --> 00:38:19,000
Speaker 12: And since then, Israel has promised a retaliation. The Defense Minister,

774
00:38:19,120 --> 00:38:21,400
Speaker 12: the Prime Minister have promised that Hesbelah would pay a

775
00:38:21,480 --> 00:38:24,800
Speaker 12: very heavy price. We've we've seen strikes along the border

776
00:38:24,840 --> 00:38:26,920
Speaker 12: since then, but that is not the response to this.

777
00:38:27,320 --> 00:38:30,160
Speaker 5: So we are waiting now. Everybody in Lebanon is nervous.

778
00:38:30,360 --> 00:38:33,480
Speaker 12: The airports have been all airlines have been shot have

779
00:38:33,560 --> 00:38:37,320
Speaker 12: been suspended to and from Lebanon. From Beirut because everybody

780
00:38:37,400 --> 00:38:40,040
Speaker 12: is anxiously awaiting the step that Israel will take. And

781
00:38:40,080 --> 00:38:44,320
Speaker 12: I anticipate a very hard response, very strong response from Israel,

782
00:38:44,360 --> 00:38:47,919
Speaker 12: probably against weapons depots in the south of Lebanon, key

783
00:38:47,960 --> 00:38:50,960
Speaker 12: infrastructure like roads and bridges again in the south, and

784
00:38:51,040 --> 00:38:53,560
Speaker 12: also wherever they may know that Hasbela leaders.

785
00:38:53,280 --> 00:38:59,320
Speaker 2: Are what happens if Israel does target Hesblah in Beirut, Hagar,

786
00:38:59,400 --> 00:39:00,880
Speaker 2: what would the posture b.

787
00:39:02,760 --> 00:39:05,120
Speaker 12: Well, Beyroot is a little bit different and not a

788
00:39:05,120 --> 00:39:07,400
Speaker 12: lot of people are expecting a strike in Beirut.

789
00:39:07,440 --> 00:39:10,440
Speaker 5: And let me explain why. The reason is that neither

790
00:39:10,680 --> 00:39:12,239
Speaker 5: side actually wants a war.

791
00:39:12,280 --> 00:39:13,600
Speaker 12: And I know I've said this a number of times

792
00:39:13,640 --> 00:39:15,920
Speaker 12: and it may seem odd since you've seen these strikes

793
00:39:15,960 --> 00:39:17,920
Speaker 12: go on between both sides for the last nine months,

794
00:39:18,160 --> 00:39:19,640
Speaker 12: But neither side actually wants a war.

795
00:39:19,640 --> 00:39:21,520
Speaker 5: Otherwise you would have seen them by now in.

796
00:39:21,440 --> 00:39:24,120
Speaker 12: A full scale war. It's just that the pressure continues

797
00:39:24,200 --> 00:39:26,879
Speaker 12: to mount more and more. And when that pressure mounts,

798
00:39:26,880 --> 00:39:29,480
Speaker 12: and when you have strikes that go on back and forth,

799
00:39:29,600 --> 00:39:31,879
Speaker 12: you always have the risk of miscalculation. And I would

800
00:39:31,920 --> 00:39:35,160
Speaker 12: argue that the strike that happened against this soccer field,

801
00:39:35,840 --> 00:39:37,759
Speaker 12: and I believe. Like I said, I believe that when

802
00:39:37,800 --> 00:39:40,520
Speaker 12: the US comes out and says that it's hisbella, I

803
00:39:40,560 --> 00:39:43,359
Speaker 12: know what it's like. What standard they have to meet

804
00:39:43,400 --> 00:39:46,560
Speaker 12: to say something like that publicly. So when Habela makes

805
00:39:46,600 --> 00:39:48,560
Speaker 12: a strike like that, whether or not it was a mistake,

806
00:39:48,640 --> 00:39:51,719
Speaker 12: is a major miscalculation, and Israel's going to respond. But

807
00:39:52,040 --> 00:39:54,000
Speaker 12: it might respond the way, for example, that it did

808
00:39:54,000 --> 00:39:57,040
Speaker 12: against the port of Hoodeda and Yemen, when the Houthis

809
00:39:57,080 --> 00:39:59,960
Speaker 12: after the Houthis sent a drone that killed and Israeli

810
00:40:00,080 --> 00:40:02,200
Speaker 12: it is an intel aviv, or the way it responded

811
00:40:02,840 --> 00:40:06,280
Speaker 12: after iransa soult of three hundred missiles and drones against Israel.

812
00:40:06,480 --> 00:40:08,600
Speaker 12: Is A responded in a way to respond in a

813
00:40:08,719 --> 00:40:11,680
Speaker 12: strong and loud fashion, to send a message that they

814
00:40:11,719 --> 00:40:13,400
Speaker 12: need to stop once and for all, or to stop

815
00:40:13,400 --> 00:40:15,960
Speaker 12: at least for the time being. And then the other

816
00:40:16,120 --> 00:40:17,920
Speaker 12: on the other side, they kind of sit back so

817
00:40:17,960 --> 00:40:20,799
Speaker 12: that it doesn't escalate further. Beirut would escalate things to

818
00:40:20,840 --> 00:40:23,279
Speaker 12: another level, though it would cause something reminiscent of the

819
00:40:23,320 --> 00:40:25,640
Speaker 12: two thousand and six war you saw between Israel and Tespola.

820
00:40:27,120 --> 00:40:29,560
Speaker 7: Well, and of course this isn't happening in a vacuum, Hagar,

821
00:40:29,680 --> 00:40:33,239
Speaker 7: this is actually happening. Is Israeli negotiators are in Rome,

822
00:40:33,280 --> 00:40:37,120
Speaker 7: together with other mediators from the US and Cutter in Egypt,

823
00:40:37,280 --> 00:40:40,400
Speaker 7: looking toward a ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas. We

824
00:40:40,440 --> 00:40:42,880
Speaker 7: have just gotten within the last fifteen minutes or so

825
00:40:42,920 --> 00:40:45,920
Speaker 7: a headline out of Prime Minister Benjamin ett Yahu's saying

826
00:40:45,920 --> 00:40:49,279
Speaker 7: that Hamas leaders are obstructing the hostage deal, that they're

827
00:40:49,280 --> 00:40:53,120
Speaker 7: adding new demands. But how do you view the knowledge

828
00:40:53,160 --> 00:40:55,560
Speaker 7: that those talks are ongoing, and how it's likely to

829
00:40:55,600 --> 00:40:57,480
Speaker 7: color the response we see from Israel.

830
00:40:58,600 --> 00:41:00,719
Speaker 12: Sure, well, I think one of the things that's fascinating

831
00:41:00,719 --> 00:41:02,600
Speaker 12: that you continue to see through this conflict is that

832
00:41:02,640 --> 00:41:05,960
Speaker 12: whatever flare up you do see, whatever horrific story that

833
00:41:06,040 --> 00:41:09,040
Speaker 12: happens or scenario that happens, it doesn't affect the ceasefire

834
00:41:09,080 --> 00:41:11,080
Speaker 12: talks as much as one would expect. And that's because

835
00:41:11,080 --> 00:41:14,879
Speaker 12: that's unfortunately typical in warfare. It can be very ugly

836
00:41:14,880 --> 00:41:17,959
Speaker 12: on the ground. While you have negotiators and they don't

837
00:41:18,160 --> 00:41:20,320
Speaker 12: talk directly to each other, they have mediators in between,

838
00:41:20,320 --> 00:41:23,440
Speaker 12: obviously Cutter, the United States and Egypt, as you mentioned, But.

839
00:41:23,440 --> 00:41:25,319
Speaker 5: Those talks, this entire time.

840
00:41:25,360 --> 00:41:28,000
Speaker 12: While you've seen sometimes fanfare in public, you know, or

841
00:41:28,040 --> 00:41:31,760
Speaker 12: bombastic remarks saying that they're going to falter, they don't.

842
00:41:31,880 --> 00:41:34,120
Speaker 5: And the latest is that the Israelis have given a

843
00:41:34,160 --> 00:41:34,919
Speaker 5: new some.

844
00:41:34,880 --> 00:41:38,839
Speaker 12: New details and changes to the latest proposal because they

845
00:41:38,880 --> 00:41:42,520
Speaker 12: want additional security Israeli eyes on the border between Egypt

846
00:41:42,520 --> 00:41:45,399
Speaker 12: and Gaza, in particular, in any kind of proposal deal.

847
00:41:45,960 --> 00:41:49,839
Speaker 12: As per usual, Hamas is obstructing that. And so it's

848
00:41:49,880 --> 00:41:52,080
Speaker 12: kind of the name of the game in these ceasefire talks.

849
00:41:52,160 --> 00:41:55,200
Speaker 12: So no matter what happens, I expect those talks to continue,

850
00:41:55,280 --> 00:41:59,040
Speaker 12: even if you have something more full scale in Lebanon,

851
00:41:59,080 --> 00:42:01,919
Speaker 12: because on the country that would only underscore further why

852
00:42:01,960 --> 00:42:04,040
Speaker 12: as cease fire is needed. And I'm sorry I didn't

853
00:42:04,040 --> 00:42:06,040
Speaker 12: were totally respond to your last question about how the

854
00:42:06,120 --> 00:42:08,680
Speaker 12: US will respond. The US, while they came out and

855
00:42:08,680 --> 00:42:11,319
Speaker 12: said that they want to de escalate tensions and they

856
00:42:11,360 --> 00:42:14,600
Speaker 12: want everyone to earth, they urge restraint at the same time,

857
00:42:14,640 --> 00:42:17,160
Speaker 12: they know Israel has to respond otherwise it would send

858
00:42:17,160 --> 00:42:19,160
Speaker 12: the wrong message. And they've already said a number of

859
00:42:19,160 --> 00:42:23,080
Speaker 12: times to indirectly to Habella that they don't hold Israel back,

860
00:42:23,200 --> 00:42:26,000
Speaker 12: that they do have Israel's back in this whole process.

861
00:42:27,080 --> 00:42:30,840
Speaker 2: Just lastly regarded what did Benjamin Attanya who accomplish, if anything,

862
00:42:30,960 --> 00:42:31,839
Speaker 2: on his trip to the.

863
00:42:31,880 --> 00:42:36,200
Speaker 12: US, Well, I mean, his trip to the US was

864
00:42:36,320 --> 00:42:39,160
Speaker 12: largely about speaking to the American public and I'm not

865
00:42:39,160 --> 00:42:40,759
Speaker 12: sure how far it went there. But what he did

866
00:42:40,840 --> 00:42:45,839
Speaker 12: accomplish is having meetings with Biden, with Kamala Harris, Vice

867
00:42:45,880 --> 00:42:48,680
Speaker 12: President Harris, and with Trump allows him to lay the

868
00:42:48,719 --> 00:42:52,920
Speaker 12: groundwork no matter what direction things go domestically here. He

869
00:42:53,040 --> 00:42:57,799
Speaker 12: has cemented relationships with all three he has they have

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Speaker 12: and even though Vice President Harris came out with a

871
00:43:00,080 --> 00:43:03,479
Speaker 12: more with a stronger tone, it also showed no change

872
00:43:03,520 --> 00:43:05,360
Speaker 12: in policy, and I think that's what that's one of

873
00:43:05,400 --> 00:43:08,200
Speaker 12: his interests ins with Trump. Obviously, it was about mending

874
00:43:08,200 --> 00:43:12,000
Speaker 12: a relationship that had frayed during after Trump had left

875
00:43:12,000 --> 00:43:15,800
Speaker 12: office and had said a number of disparaging remarks about Natanyahu,

876
00:43:15,840 --> 00:43:18,840
Speaker 12: and so he cemented that relationship further. So that's largely

877
00:43:18,880 --> 00:43:20,759
Speaker 12: what he what he gets out of this is just

878
00:43:20,800 --> 00:43:23,919
Speaker 12: to make sure that the special relationship continues and that

879
00:43:24,280 --> 00:43:28,760
Speaker 12: his unique relationship with each political official also remains intact.

880
00:43:29,760 --> 00:43:32,960
Speaker 2: Higar Shamali, Greenwich Media strategies. Thanks as ever, Hagar for

881
00:43:33,000 --> 00:43:36,560
Speaker 2: bringing your experience to us here on Bloomberg's TV and Radio.

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00:43:36,680 --> 00:43:39,520
Speaker 2: This is Balance of Power. I'm Joe Matthew alongside Kaylee Lions,

883
00:43:39,560 --> 00:43:42,000
Speaker 2: and we want to take a swing past Capitol Hill

884
00:43:42,640 --> 00:43:46,680
Speaker 2: before we call this episode to a close. Here, Jack

885
00:43:46,719 --> 00:43:50,399
Speaker 2: Fitzpatrick from Bloomberg Government joins us from the Capitol right now,

886
00:43:50,440 --> 00:43:54,719
Speaker 2: remembering that the House went home an extended summer recess,

887
00:43:55,160 --> 00:43:57,800
Speaker 2: but the Senate is actually still in and in fact

888
00:43:58,000 --> 00:44:00,920
Speaker 2: getting some work done. No one's talking about it, but

889
00:44:01,000 --> 00:44:02,839
Speaker 2: of course Jack is there to cover it for us.

890
00:44:02,840 --> 00:44:04,520
Speaker 2: And Jack, we could see a couple of things here.

891
00:44:04,520 --> 00:44:07,719
Speaker 2: I'll ask you about appropriations, but also social media. With

892
00:44:07,760 --> 00:44:09,440
Speaker 2: some bills set to pass today.

893
00:44:10,880 --> 00:44:15,480
Speaker 13: Yes, first this week, they're supposed to finish their committee

894
00:44:15,520 --> 00:44:19,320
Speaker 13: work in the Senate on government funding bills, there is

895
00:44:19,360 --> 00:44:21,360
Speaker 13: a question of how much work they can actually do.

896
00:44:21,400 --> 00:44:23,680
Speaker 13: They've got five bills left that haven't had committee votes

897
00:44:23,680 --> 00:44:27,719
Speaker 13: and haven't been released yet. Just this morning, it came

898
00:44:27,760 --> 00:44:30,960
Speaker 13: out that they are putting off work on the Homeland

899
00:44:31,040 --> 00:44:34,920
Speaker 13: Security funding bill in the Senate because, as one of

900
00:44:34,960 --> 00:44:38,880
Speaker 13: my colleagues reported, citing a Senate aide who's familiar with

901
00:44:39,320 --> 00:44:43,200
Speaker 13: what they're negotiating. There are questions as to how to

902
00:44:43,239 --> 00:44:46,920
Speaker 13: address the Secret Service budget, which is within the Homeland

903
00:44:46,920 --> 00:44:51,040
Speaker 13: Security funding bill. In the week of the failed assassination

904
00:44:51,120 --> 00:44:55,799
Speaker 13: attempt of former President Trump, so many questions surrounding their

905
00:44:55,840 --> 00:44:59,520
Speaker 13: response in the oversight to the Secret Service. After that,

906
00:44:59,760 --> 00:45:02,560
Speaker 13: there there are now questions about do they need more money,

907
00:45:02,680 --> 00:45:05,480
Speaker 13: can they use that money successfully? And so they are

908
00:45:05,520 --> 00:45:09,200
Speaker 13: putting off work on their Homeland Security funding bill because

909
00:45:09,239 --> 00:45:11,520
Speaker 13: it has been at least in part because it has

910
00:45:11,560 --> 00:45:13,480
Speaker 13: been complicated by those questions.

911
00:45:13,719 --> 00:45:14,920
Speaker 1: So we are.

912
00:45:14,800 --> 00:45:17,600
Speaker 13: Getting into campaign mode, but there's some significant work left

913
00:45:17,640 --> 00:45:21,480
Speaker 13: to do in funding the government and in answering all

914
00:45:21,520 --> 00:45:24,959
Speaker 13: the questions that lawmakers have about what comes next after

915
00:45:25,000 --> 00:45:27,520
Speaker 13: that assassination attempt and oversight of Secret Service.

916
00:45:29,200 --> 00:45:32,040
Speaker 7: Jack I asked this question knowing that it is literally

917
00:45:32,080 --> 00:45:34,600
Speaker 7: the job of these lawmakers to legislate and to get

918
00:45:34,600 --> 00:45:37,080
Speaker 7: the government funded. That's why they were sent by the

919
00:45:37,080 --> 00:45:39,879
Speaker 7: American people to Capitol Hill. But I do question why

920
00:45:39,920 --> 00:45:41,920
Speaker 7: they're trying to do this now when they know the

921
00:45:42,000 --> 00:45:45,080
Speaker 7: House is gone. They're not coming back until September ninth,

922
00:45:45,080 --> 00:45:46,880
Speaker 7: when we're going to be what three weeks from a

923
00:45:46,880 --> 00:45:49,960
Speaker 7: potential shutdown, and the prevailing thought is that they're just

924
00:45:50,000 --> 00:45:53,960
Speaker 7: going to end up passing a continuing resolution anyway. So

925
00:45:54,200 --> 00:45:55,719
Speaker 7: is this all just a charade?

926
00:45:57,080 --> 00:46:01,160
Speaker 13: Everything they do now is with an ion setting the

927
00:46:01,239 --> 00:46:07,479
Speaker 13: stage for realistic, bipartisan, bicameral, tough negotiations as soon as

928
00:46:07,560 --> 00:46:11,520
Speaker 13: the lame duck session. If everybody sets their marker and

929
00:46:11,600 --> 00:46:15,680
Speaker 13: says this is where House Republicans stand on funding the government,

930
00:46:15,719 --> 00:46:18,239
Speaker 13: and this is where Senators stand on it, there's at

931
00:46:18,320 --> 00:46:21,680
Speaker 13: least a hope that they can have made enough progress

932
00:46:21,719 --> 00:46:24,480
Speaker 13: so that maybe in December they can strike an actual

933
00:46:24,480 --> 00:46:27,200
Speaker 13: funding deal. If they could do that, then whoever the

934
00:46:27,239 --> 00:46:29,640
Speaker 13: next president is will not come in with a shut

935
00:46:29,640 --> 00:46:32,319
Speaker 13: down deadline on their plate and they can focus on

936
00:46:32,960 --> 00:46:37,400
Speaker 13: getting cabinet officials in place and on their legislative agenda.

937
00:46:37,760 --> 00:46:40,360
Speaker 13: It's not clear if they will do that because the

938
00:46:40,400 --> 00:46:43,720
Speaker 13: House and Senate have a huge gap between their approach

939
00:46:43,760 --> 00:46:46,680
Speaker 13: and funding the government on all sorts of bills. So

940
00:46:47,000 --> 00:46:50,120
Speaker 13: it's not just a charade. It is largely for show,

941
00:46:50,760 --> 00:46:53,520
Speaker 13: but that show can set the stage for the real

942
00:46:53,560 --> 00:46:57,600
Speaker 13: negotiations with an eye on hopefully striking a deal before

943
00:46:57,719 --> 00:47:00,799
Speaker 13: another president has to come in and clean up the mess.

944
00:47:01,800 --> 00:47:05,759
Speaker 2: Who says regular order is dead. Jack, We've also got

945
00:47:05,760 --> 00:47:08,840
Speaker 2: the Kids Online Safety Act and the Children's Online Privacy

946
00:47:08,880 --> 00:47:12,719
Speaker 2: Protection Act, these two attempting to regulate social media that

947
00:47:12,760 --> 00:47:14,960
Speaker 2: are apparently moving in the Senate here looks like they're

948
00:47:15,000 --> 00:47:16,960
Speaker 2: going to pass. Do we have any sense of whether

949
00:47:16,960 --> 00:47:17,920
Speaker 2: they could pass the House?

950
00:47:19,000 --> 00:47:22,080
Speaker 13: That is an interesting question. The bipartisan interest on this

951
00:47:22,239 --> 00:47:25,160
Speaker 13: in the Senate sets the stage for possible passage here,

952
00:47:25,920 --> 00:47:29,680
Speaker 13: but as we mentioned, as we get toward campaign mode

953
00:47:30,320 --> 00:47:34,280
Speaker 13: and a limited opportunity to legislate in a bi cameral way,

954
00:47:35,160 --> 00:47:38,000
Speaker 13: it's a little iffy if they can actually enact something

955
00:47:38,120 --> 00:47:41,920
Speaker 13: and have bi cameraal negotiations on that. Again, a vote

956
00:47:42,000 --> 00:47:44,640
Speaker 13: to pass that in the Senate that sets a marker

957
00:47:44,640 --> 00:47:47,080
Speaker 13: that shows there's bipartisan interest in it could be a

958
00:47:47,080 --> 00:47:51,160
Speaker 13: significant thing. But we're really dealing with a compressed schedule

959
00:47:51,440 --> 00:47:54,279
Speaker 13: in terms of enacting legislation for the rest of this year.

960
00:47:56,120 --> 00:47:58,200
Speaker 7: And Jack, before we let you go, we are expecting

961
00:47:58,200 --> 00:48:01,240
Speaker 7: to hear from President Biden a few hours from now,

962
00:48:01,440 --> 00:48:03,680
Speaker 7: when he's going to be speaking in Texas outlining what

963
00:48:03,719 --> 00:48:06,160
Speaker 7: he would like to see in terms of Supreme Court reform.

964
00:48:06,160 --> 00:48:09,760
Speaker 7: What we're talking about here is an actual ethics code

965
00:48:10,160 --> 00:48:14,279
Speaker 7: that isn'tforceable, term limits, potentially even a constitutional amendment when

966
00:48:14,320 --> 00:48:17,200
Speaker 7: it comes to presidential immunity. For all of these things,

967
00:48:17,200 --> 00:48:20,280
Speaker 7: he's going to need Congress to cooperate. The House Speaker

968
00:48:20,320 --> 00:48:23,120
Speaker 7: has already said it's dead on arrival in that chamber.

969
00:48:23,120 --> 00:48:26,080
Speaker 7: Does it actually any of these things face any real

970
00:48:26,120 --> 00:48:27,560
Speaker 7: prospect in Congress?

971
00:48:28,480 --> 00:48:31,200
Speaker 13: Not in the near future. In Congress, this has become

972
00:48:31,239 --> 00:48:35,359
Speaker 13: as much of an election and campaign issue. It's one

973
00:48:35,360 --> 00:48:38,600
Speaker 13: thing for the president to communicate about his proposals, and

974
00:48:38,640 --> 00:48:41,840
Speaker 13: that's something that some high profile Democrats in Congress have done,

975
00:48:42,160 --> 00:48:44,680
Speaker 13: like Dick Durbin, but it's not something where there's a

976
00:48:44,680 --> 00:48:48,319
Speaker 13: lot of bipartisan overlap. Republicans have put the kebash on that,

977
00:48:48,600 --> 00:48:50,959
Speaker 13: so at least in the near term, this is more

978
00:48:51,000 --> 00:48:54,040
Speaker 13: about communicating proposals than anything that has much of a

979
00:48:54,160 --> 00:48:56,120
Speaker 13: chance of moving forward and being enacted.

980
00:48:57,560 --> 00:48:59,439
Speaker 7: Does feel like we're in a bit of a messaging era,

981
00:48:59,520 --> 00:49:02,480
Speaker 7: and Paul right now, as we're in the August before

982
00:49:02,560 --> 00:49:05,480
Speaker 7: the election, Jack Fitzpatrick a Bloomberg Government joining us live

983
00:49:05,480 --> 00:49:08,160
Speaker 7: from Capitol Hill as always, thank you so much, and

984
00:49:08,200 --> 00:49:10,040
Speaker 7: it is worth pointing out, Joe that We're about to

985
00:49:10,440 --> 00:49:13,279
Speaker 7: have a real absence of news from Capitol Hill after

986
00:49:13,280 --> 00:49:15,359
Speaker 7: the Senate leaves this week. It's going to be what

987
00:49:15,520 --> 00:49:19,440
Speaker 7: five weeks before Congress coming back, leaving August, to just

988
00:49:19,480 --> 00:49:22,320
Speaker 7: be essentially dominated by presidential politics.

989
00:49:22,480 --> 00:49:25,000
Speaker 2: Absolutely, and to your point, we'll come back and have

990
00:49:25,080 --> 00:49:27,359
Speaker 2: a whole argument about whether we're going to shut down

991
00:49:27,360 --> 00:49:32,840
Speaker 2: the government. So keep your countdown clocks. Thanks for listening

992
00:49:32,840 --> 00:49:36,160
Speaker 2: to the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe

993
00:49:36,239 --> 00:49:38,920
Speaker 2: if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, or wherever you

994
00:49:38,960 --> 00:49:41,719
Speaker 2: get your podcasts, and you can find us live every

995
00:49:41,719 --> 00:49:46,000
Speaker 2: weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern at Bloomberg dot com.